應用材料 (AMAT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加應用程式材料公司收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

I would now turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我將會議交給公司副總裁麥可‧沙利文。先生，請發言。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家午安！感謝大家參加應用材料公司2022財年第四季財報電話會議。與我一同出席的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson 和財務長布萊斯希爾 (Brice Hill)。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果有所不同。有關這些風險和不確定性的資訊包含在應用程式材料公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新10-Q和8-K表格中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com. Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement.

今天的電話會議也涵蓋了非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標。與公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表可在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益資料中找到，這些資料可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的投資者關係 (IR) 頁面上找到。開始之前，我先發布一個日程安排。

Applied plans to hold an eBeam technology and new product webcast on Wednesday, December 14, at 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time. Please stay tuned for an invitation to join our presenter, Keith Wells, who is Group Vice President and General Manager of our Imaging and Process Control Group. And with that introduction, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

應用材料公司計劃於12月14日星期三上午9:00（太平洋時間）舉行eBeam技術和新產品網路直播。敬請期待我們的主持人Keith Wells的邀請，他是集團副總裁兼成像和過程控制事業部總經理。介紹完畢後，我想將節目轉給Gary Dickerson。

Thank you, Mike. Applied Materials delivered a strong finish to our fiscal year with record quarterly performance. Throughout 2022, the company has demonstrated solid execution while navigating COVID-related restrictions, supply chain shortages and a challenging geopolitical and macroeconomic environment.

謝謝，麥克。應用材料公司以創紀錄的季度業績為本財年畫上了圓滿的句號。 2022年全年，公司在應對新冠疫情相關限制措施、供應鏈短缺以及充滿挑戰的地緣政治和宏觀經濟環境的同時，展現了穩健的執行力。

I would like to recognize the hard work and commitment of our global team and our suppliers who are doing everything possible to meet our customers' needs. As this is our year-end call, I'll begin my prepared remarks with a quick review of our performance and progress over the past 12 months. I'll then give our latest outlook for 2023 before describing our longer-term growth thesis for the industry and Applied.

我要對我們全球團隊和供應商的辛勤工作和奉獻精神表示感謝，他們竭盡全力滿足客戶的需求。由於這是我們的年終電話會議，我將首先簡要回顧我們過去12個月的業績和進展。然後，我將介紹我們對2023年的最新展望，並闡述我們對產業和應用材料公司的長期成長策略。

After that, Brice will provide more color on our financial performance and key areas of operational focus. Like many others in the technology sector, our performance and priorities in 2022 have been shaped by an unprecedented set of challenges. Our top priority has been mitigating supply chain constraints that prevented us from fully meeting customer demand.

之後，布萊斯將詳細介紹我們的財務表現和關鍵營運重點。與科技業的許多其他公司一樣，我們在2022年的業績和優先事項也受到了一系列前所未有的挑戰的影響。我們的首要任務是緩解阻礙我們完全滿足客戶需求的供應鏈限制。

In Q4, we made incremental progress, and we expect to continue closing supply gaps over the next few quarters. As well as finding creative short-term solutions, our team has been addressing root causes and building a more resilient, scalable supply chain and stronger strategic relationships with our suppliers. In addition, we are strengthening our own manufacturing, logistics and supply chain management.

第四季度，我們取得了階段性進展，預計未來幾季將繼續彌合供應缺口。除了尋找創意十足的短期解決方案外，我們的團隊還致力於解決根本問題，建立更具韌性、可擴展的供應鏈，並與供應商建立更牢固的策略關係。此外，我們正在加強自身的製造、物流和供應鏈管理。

While I'm pleased with the recent improvements in supply chain performance, we are still supply chain limited across a number of key product lines and our backlog grew in Q4. The biggest supply constraints are in our metal deposition business, where customer demand is very strong.

雖然我對近期供應鏈績效的改善感到滿意，但我們在一些關鍵產品線上的供應鏈仍然受限，而且第四季的積壓訂單有所增加。最大的供應限制因素是金屬沉積業務，而該業務的客戶需求非常強勁。

This is our largest business unit and where we have highly differentiated solutions for advanced foundry/logic and DRAM. The market for these products, which enable next-generation wiring, is expanding considerably. In addition to supply shortages, we're also navigating a difficult geopolitical environment as reflected in the new export control regulations enacted by the U.S. government on October 7.

這是我們最大的業務部門，我們在此為先進的晶圓代工/邏輯和 DRAM 提供高度差異化的解決方案。這些支援下一代佈線的產品市場正在大幅擴張。除了供應短缺之外，我們還面臨嚴峻的地緣政治環境，這反映在美國政府 10 月 7 日頒布的新出口管制法規中。

These new rules are complex and cover a broad range of semiconductor technology that includes wafer fabrication equipment and related parts and services. We have taken all the necessary actions to comply with these new rules, including suspending shipments and support where required.

這些新規非常複雜，涵蓋了廣泛的半導體技術，包括晶圓製造設備以及相關零件和服務。我們已採取一切必要措施以遵守這些新規，包括在必要時暫停出貨和支援。

We estimate that the unmitigated impact to our fiscal 2023 revenues could be up to $2.5 billion. We believe the actual impact can be reduced to $1.5 billion to $2 billion. This will depend in part on how quickly the government provides licenses and approvals as well as how impacted companies refocus their investments.

我們估計，這次事件對我們2023財年營收的直接影響可能高達25億美元。我們相信實際影響可以降至15億至20億美元。這在一定程度上取決於政府發放許可證和批准的速度，以及受影響公司如何調整投資方向。

We are also mindful of the macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and softening consumer demand. To offset the inflationary cost increases we are facing, we are driving multiple initiatives that include reengineering our products and implementing price adjustments.

我們也關注宏觀經濟的逆風，包括通膨和消費需求疲軟。為了抵​​銷通膨帶來的成本上漲，我們正在推行多項舉措，包括產品重組和價格調整。

While it's too early to forecast 2023 with any precision, I can describe what we're currently seeing in the market and hearing from our customers. Starting with memory, spending is expected to be down year-on-year as weakness in consumer electronics and PCs prompts some customers to defer capacity additions.

雖然現在準確預測2023年還為時過早，但我可以描述一下我們目前在市場上看到的情況以及從客戶那裡聽到的情況。首先是內存，由於消費性電子產品和個人電腦的疲軟促使一些客戶推遲增加產能，預計支出將比去年同期下降。

In leading-edge foundry/logic, demand looks strong, with customers racing for leadership and driving major technology inflections that determine their relative competitive positions. In ICAPS, chips for the IoT, communications, auto, power and sensor markets, demand is mixed.

在尖端晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域，需求強勁，客戶競相爭奪領先地位，並推動決定其相對競爭地位的重大技術變革。在面向物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器市場的晶片領域，ICAPS 的需求則呈現混合態勢。

Consumer-driven markets are clearly softer, while the automotive, industrial and power markets remain robust. Those investments are underpinned by large inflections, including the transition to electric vehicles, accelerated adoption of industrial automation and growing demand for renewable energy solutions, especially in Europe.

消費驅動型市場明顯疲軟，而汽車、工業和電力市場則保持強勁。這些投資受到重大經濟轉折的支撐，包括向電動車的轉型、工業自動化的加速應用以及對再生能源解決方案日益增長的需求，尤其是在歐洲。

While all of this adds up to an expected pullback in overall wafer fab equipment spending next year, we believe that Applied's business will be more resilient than the underlying market for 3 key reasons: First, we have a significant backlog, the highest in our history, measured on both an absolute and percentage of revenue basis; second, demand for some of our most differentiated product lines where we have uniquely enabling technology remains much higher than our capacity to fulfill that demand; and third, our service business is positioned for steady growth with an increasingly large portion of this business being converted to subscriptions.

雖然所有這些因素都預示著明年晶圓廠設備總支出將出現回落，但我們相信，應用材料公司的業務將比基礎市場更具彈性，主要原因有三：首先，我們有大量積壓訂單，無論以絕對收入還是佔收入的百分比來衡量，都是歷史上最高的；其次，我們擁有獨特支持技術的一些最具差異化的產品線的需求仍然高於我們有遠成長的業務需求的服務。

Over the past 12 months, our installed base of systems grew 8% and the number of tools under comprehensive long-term service contracts grew 16%. The renewal rate for these agreements is well over 90%, which demonstrates the value customers see in our subscription services. Looking further ahead, our long-term growth thesis for the industry and Applied Materials has not changed.

過去12個月，我們的系統安裝基數增加了8%，簽訂了全面長期服務合約的工具數量增加了16%。這些協議的續約率遠超過90%，這反映了客戶對我們訂閱服務的價值認可。展望未來，我們對產業和應用材料公司的長期成長目標始終如一。

Semiconductors are the foundation of digital transformation that will touch almost every sector of the economy over the coming years. This puts the semiconductor industry on a path to a $1 trillion market by the end of the decade. And while every year will not be an up year, the overall trajectory is clear.

半導體是數位轉型的基礎，未來幾年將觸及幾乎所有經濟領域。這將使半導體產業在2020年邁向1兆美元的市場。雖然半導體產業並非每年都呈現成長態勢，但其整體發展軌跡清晰明了。

We also like where Applied Materials plays within the ecosystem. As technology complexity is increasing, we expect equipment intensity to remain at today's levels or rise further. This means wafer fab equipment is likely to grow faster than the overall semiconductor market.

我們也看好應用材料在生態系中的地位。隨著技術複雜性的不斷提高，我們預計設備強度將保持在目前的水平或進一步上升。這意味著晶圓廠設備的成長速度可能會快於整個半導體市場。

Within equipment spending, major technology inflections are enabled by materials engineering, shifting more dollars to Applied's available markets over time. We think about the industry's future road map in terms of power, performance, area cost and time to market.

在設備支出方面，材料工程推動了重大技術變革，隨著時間的推移，更多資金將流向應用材料公司現有的市場。我們會從功率、性能、面積成本和上市時間等方面來思考產業未來的發展路線圖。

The PPACt playbook has 5 pillars: new architectures, new 3D structures, new materials, new ways to shrink and advanced packaging, with each pillar made up of multiple technology inflections. For example, new 3D structures like gate-all-around transistors and backside power distribution networks are materials engineering enabled inflections that grow Applied's total available market.

PPACt 策略包含五大支柱：新架構、新 3D 結構、新材料、新的微縮方法以及先進封裝，每個支柱都包含多項技術變革。例如，環繞閘極電晶體和背面配電網路等新型 3D 結構正是材料工程賦能的變革，能夠擴大應用材料公司的整體可用市場。

As I referenced earlier, wiring is a key bottleneck for chip performance and power at advanced nodes. And this is driving significant innovation in new materials. Between the 7- and 3-nanometer node, contact metallization steps are growing more than 50% and our total available market is expanding almost 80%.

正如我之前提到的，佈線是先進節點晶片效能和功耗的關鍵瓶頸。這正在推動新材料的重大創新。在7奈米和3奈米節點之間，接觸金屬化步驟成長了50%以上，我們的總可用市場規模成長了近80%。

For interconnect layers, process steps are being added even faster, and we expect our revenue opportunity to approximately triple through these node transitions. Advanced packaging represents a new era for integrated circuit design that opens major new vectors of innovation for chip designers.

對於互連層，製程步驟的增加速度更快，我們預計透過這些節點轉換，我們的收入機會將增加約三倍。先進封裝代表著積體電路設計的新時代，為晶片設計人員開闢了重要的創新方向。

Advanced packaging is also enabled by new materials engineering solutions. Although the industry is still in the early stages of adoption, we have already grown our packaging equipment business to nearly $1 billion. Our Process Diagnostics and Controls business also has broad exposure to these inflections and delivered significant growth in 2022. Our progress and opportunities in eBeam will be the focus of our December technology briefing.

先進封裝也得益於新材料工程解決方案。儘管該行業仍處於應用的早期階段，但我們的封裝設備業務已成長至近10億美元。我們的製程診斷和控制業務也廣泛地受益於這些變革，並在2022年實現了顯著成長。我們在eBeam領域的進展和機會將成為我們12月技術簡報的重點。

Given our positive long-term view of the semiconductor market, the outsized opportunities for Applied Materials within the market and favorable global government incentives, we are making investments in R&D and infrastructure to support industry growth and position the company for future success.

鑑於我們對半導體市場的長期樂觀看法、應用材料在市場中的巨大機會以及有利的全球政府激勵措施，我們正在對研發和基礎設施進行投資，以支持行業成長並為公司未來的成功做好準備。

We will provide more details about our specific plans in the coming months. At the same time, with the current macroeconomic conditions, we are carefully managing discretionary spending and limiting hiring to only strategic positions. Before I hand the call over to Brice, I'll quickly summarize.

我們將在未來幾個月內公佈更多具體計劃的細節。同時，鑑於當前的宏觀經濟形勢，我們正在謹慎管理可自由支配的支出，並將招聘限制在戰略職位上。在將電話交給布萊斯之前，我先快速總結一下。

Applied Materials ended the year strong with record performance. In the past quarter, we made incremental progress, overcoming the supply challenges that have constrained our performance in fiscal 2022. However, there is still work to do and our backlog continues to grow. We expect 2023 to be a down year for wafer fab equipment spending, but we believe that Applied's business will be more resilient, thanks to our large backlog, growing service business and strong customer demand for our leadership products that enable key technology inflections.

應用材料公司以創紀錄的業績強勢收官本財年。在過去一個季度，我們取得了階段性進展，克服了限制我們2022財年業績的供應挑戰。然而，我們仍有工作要做，訂單積壓持續成長。我們預計2023年晶圓廠設備支出將出現下滑，但我們相信，得益於我們龐大的訂單積壓、不斷增長的服務業務以及客戶對我們引領關鍵技術變革的領先產品的強勁需求，應用材料公司的業務將更具韌性。

Longer-term secular trends create opportunities for Applied to outgrow the semiconductor market by enabling the PPACt road map with our differentiated portfolio of materials engineering solutions. We are making strategic investments for the future while slowing spending growth in the near term. Now I'll hand over to Brice.

長期趨勢為應用材料創造了機會，透過我們差異化的材料工程解決方案組合，我們能夠推動PPACt路線圖，從而超越半導體市場。我們正在為未來進行策略性投資，同時在短期內放緩支出成長。現在，我將把時間交給Brice。

Thank you, Gary. I'd like to start by thanking our team and our supply chain partners for helping to further increase our output for our customers. On today's call, I'll summarize our results for the fiscal year and Q4 as well as provide our guidance for Q1.

謝謝，加里。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊和供應鏈夥伴，感謝他們幫助我們進一步提升了客戶的產出。在今天的電話會議上，我將總結本財年和第四季的業績，並提供第一季的業績指引。

I'll also discuss the impact of recent U.S. export regulations on our revenue and gross margin. Before going into the results, I'd like to make 3 points. First, despite a weaker customer demand outlook, we generated strong orders in Q4 and ended the year with record backlog, particularly in some of our leadership product areas.

我也會討論近期美國出口法規對我們收入和毛利率的影響。在介紹業績之前，我想先談三點。首先，儘管客戶需求前景疲軟，但我們在第四季度仍實現了強勁的訂單，並在年底實現了創紀錄的積壓訂單，尤其是在一些領先的產品領域。

Combined with the resiliency of our AGS business, the strong backlog puts us in a good position to offset some of the market weakness expected next year. Second, we have not changed our view of a $1 trillion semiconductor market by 2030 with a high single-digit CAGR for semiconductors and similar or faster growth for equipment due to added process complexity.

加上我們AGS業務的韌性，強勁的訂單積壓使我們處於有利地位，能夠抵消明年預期的部分市場疲軟。其次，我們並沒有改變2030年半導體市場規模將達到1兆美元的預期，半導體市場的複合年增長率將達到高個位數，而由於製程複雜性的提升，設備市場的複合年增長率也將接近或更快。

We grew our headcount in R&D spending significantly in 2022 to develop new leadership products and further expand our broad portfolio. While we are slowing our spending growth in the current environment, we remain committed to research and development, enabling critical inflections that support our customers' road maps.

2022年，我們大幅增加了研發支出，用於開發新的領先產品，並進一步擴展我們廣泛的產品組合。儘管在當前環境下，我們的支出成長有所放緩，但我們仍將致力於研發，實現關鍵的轉型，以支援客戶的路線圖。

And third, we returned nearly [$7 billion] to shareholders this past year, including buybacks equivalent to 6% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the period. With record demand and financial results in 2022, a strong growth opportunity through 2030 and our broad and unique portfolio of systems and services, we're confident in our financial position and our future.

第三，我們去年向股東返還了近70億美元，其中包括相當於期初流通股6%的回購。鑑於2022年創紀錄的需求和財務業績、到2030年的強勁成長機會以及我們廣泛而獨特的系統和服務組合，我們對自己的財務狀況和未來充滿信心。

Next, I'll summarize our fiscal year results. Although supply chain constraints impacted our output all year, we delivered record annual revenue and EPS. On a year-over-year basis, revenue increased nearly 12% to $25.8 billion. Non-GAAP gross margin decreased by around 90 basis points to 46.6%. Non-GAAP operating profit grew by over 7% to $7.86 billion.

接下來，我將總結我們財年的業績。儘管供應鏈限制影響了我們全年的產出，但我們的年度收入和每股盈餘都創下紀錄。與去年同期相比，營收成長了近12%，達到258億美元。非公認會計準則毛利率下降了約90個基點，至46.6%。非公認會計準則營業利潤成長了7%以上，達到78.6億美元。

Non-GAAP operating margin decreased by 120 basis points to 30.5%. And non-GAAP EPS increased nearly 13% to $7.70. We generated about $5.4 billion in operating cash flow this past year and over $4.6 billion in free cash flow. We returned 151% of free cash flow to shareholders, including $873 million in dividends and $6.1 billion in share repurchases.

非公認會計準則營業利益率下降120個基點至30.5%。非公認會計準則每股收益成長近13%，至7.70美元。過去一年，我們創造了約54億美元的營業現金流和超過46億美元的自由現金流。我們向股東返還了151%的自由現金流，其中包括8.73億美元的股利和61億美元的股票回購。

Our cash returns for the past 3 years were equivalent to over 100% of free cash flow. In the year, demand for our products and services was very strong with record annual bookings in semi systems and AGS. On a year-over-year basis, our total ending backlog increased 62% to $19 billion.

過去三年，我們的現金報酬率相當於自由現金流的100%以上。今年，我們產品和服務的需求非常強勁，半掛系統和AGS的年度訂單量創歷史新高。與去年同期相比，我們的期末未交付訂單總額增加了62%，達到190億美元。

Our semi systems backlog increased 90% to nearly $12.7 billion. We expect to reduce our semi systems backlog as supply chain performance improves. Our AGS backlog increased 30% to over $5.6 billion. The strong AGS backlog reflects a large increase in long-term service agreements, which gives us confidence in the continued growth of this business.

我們的半系統積壓訂單成長了90%，達到近127億美元。隨著供應鏈績效的提升，我們預期半系統積壓訂單將會減少。我們的AGS積壓訂單增加了30%，超過56億美元。強勁的AGS積壓訂單反映了長期服務協議的大幅成長，這讓我們對該業務的持續成長充滿信心。

Moving to our Q4 results. We delivered record quarterly net sales of nearly $6.75 billion and record non-GAAP EPS of $2.03. Non-GAAP gross margin declined 20 basis points sequentially to 46%. And non-GAAP OpEx grew 3.5% sequentially to nearly $1.1 billion, with most of the increase in R&D.

回顧第四季業績。我們實現了創紀錄的季度淨銷售額，接近67.5億美元，非公認會計準則每股收益達到創紀錄的2.03美元。非公認會計準則毛利率季減20個基點，至46%。非公認會計準則營運支出較上季成長3.5%，達到近11億美元，其中大部分成長來自研發支出。

Turning to the segments. Semi systems revenue grew more than 6% sequentially to $5.04 billion. Segment non-GAAP operating margin increased 80 basis points sequentially to 36.9%. AGS revenue was flat quarter-over-quarter at $1.42 billion. Segment non-GAAP operating margin declined to 28.3%.

談到各部門。半導體系統部門營收季增超過6%，達到50.4億美元。部門非公認會計準則營業利益率較上月成長80個基點，達36.9%。 AGS部門營收季減持平，為14.2億美元。部門非公認會計準則營業利益率下降至28.3%。

AGS key performance indicators continue to be positive with strong year-over-year growth in installed base systems, service intensity and subscription agreements. As a result, AGS continues to grow faster than the pace needed to achieve our long-term revenue targets.

AGS的關鍵績效指標持續向好，已安裝系統數量、服務強度和訂購協議均實現強勁同比增長。因此，AGS的成長速度持續高於我們實現長期收入目標所需的速度。

Moving on to Display. Revenue declined as expected to $251 million. Segment non-GAAP operating margin also declined to 13.5%. Turning to our cash flows. We generated $857 million in operating cash flow during the quarter, which was 13% of revenue. We returned over $1.72 billion to shareholders, including $223 million in dividends and $1.5 billion in buybacks.

再來看看顯示業務。收入下降至2.51億美元，符合預期。非公認會計準則下，該部門營業利益率也下降至13.5%。現金流方面，本季我們創造了8.57億美元的營業現金流，佔營收的13%。我們向股東返還了超過17.2億美元，其中包括2.23億美元的股息和15億美元的回購資金。

We repurchased 17 million shares at an average price of $88.05. Next, I'll discuss the impact of the new U.S. export regulations to Applied Materials. We currently expect that the unmitigated revenue impact of the new rules could be up to $2.5 billion in fiscal 2023. We continue to work through the regulatory requirements, including seeking licenses and approvals where appropriate.

我們以平均88.05美元的價格回購了1700萬股。接下來，我將討論美國新出口法規對應用材料的影響。我們目前預計，新規對2023財年營收的直接影響可能高達25億美元。我們將繼續努力滿足監管要求，包括在適當的情況下申請許可和批准。

We hope to reduce the revenue impact by between $500 million and $1 billion to a net impact of $1.5 billion to $2 billion. We also expect the rules to reduce our non-GAAP gross margin by up to 1 percentage point. While this creates a headwind to meeting our gross margin targets for 2024, we remain committed to our goals and believe we can achieve and exceed them over time.

我們希望將收入影響減少5億至10億美元，使淨影響達到15億至20億美元。我們也預期這些規則將使我們的非公認會計準則毛利率降低最多1個百分點。儘管這會對我們實現2024年的毛利率目標造成阻力，但我們仍將致力於實現這些目標，並相信隨著時間的推移，我們能夠實現並超越這些目標。

In Q4, the new rules reduced our semi systems and AGS revenue by approximately $280 million, which is in the range of our expectation on October 12. Inventory charges in Q4 were lower than our preliminary assessment. In Q1, we expect the new rules to reduce semi systems and AGS revenue by approximately $490 million combined and reduce our gross margin by around 1 percentage point, both on an unmitigated basis.

第四季度，新規則導致我們的半掛系統和AGS收入減少約2.8億美元，這在我們10月12日的預期範圍內。第四季的庫存費用低於我們的初步評估。在第一季度，我們預期新規將導致半掛系統和AGS收入總計減少約4.9億美元，毛利率降低約1個百分點，以上兩項均為未受影響的金額。

Now I'll share our guidance for Q1. We expect revenue to be $6.7 billion, plus or minus $400 million, and we expect non-GAAP EPS of $1.93, plus or minus $0.18. Within this outlook, we expect semi systems revenue to be about $5.15 billion, which is up nearly 13% year-over-year.

現在我將分享我們對第一季的預期。我們預計營收為 67 億美元，上下浮動 4 億美元；非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.93 美元，上下浮動 0.18 美元。在此預期下，我們預期半導體系統業務營收約 51.5 億美元，年增近 13%。

We expect AGS revenue to be about $1.33 billion, which is slightly up year-over-year. Display revenue should be around $170 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 46.1% and we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be $1.16 billion. We are modeling a tax rate of 13%, which is up from 11.8% last year, primarily due to mandatory capitalization of R&D expenses effective in our new fiscal year.

我們預計AGS營收約13.3億美元，年比略有成長。顯示器營收預計約1.7億美元。我們預計非GAAP毛利率約為46.1%，非GAAP營運支出預計為11.6億美元。我們預期稅率為13%，高於去年的11.8%，主要是因為新財年強制資本化研發費用。

Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to summarize our company's position in the current environment. We have record backlog, notably in the highly enabling technologies for next-generation nodes. Our supply chain and manufacturing output are incrementally improving.

在開始問答環節之前，我想總結一下我們公司在當前環境下的狀況。我們的訂單積壓量創歷史新高，尤其是在下一代節點的高效能技術方面。我們的供應鏈和製造產出正在逐步改善。

We expect our services business will continue to grow and generate strong recurring revenue and free cash flow. And the longer-term growth outlook for the semiconductor industry remains strong. Applied is in a great position to invest in future growth and deliver strong profitability, free cash flow and shareholder returns. Now Mike, please begin the Q&A.

我們預計我們的服務業務將繼續成長，並產生強勁的經常性收入和自由現金流。半導體產業的長期成長前景依然強勁。應用材料公司處於有利地位，可以投資未來的成長，並實現強勁的獲利能力、自由現金流和股東回報。現在，麥克，請開始問答環節。

Thanks, Brice. To help us reach as many people as we can, please ask just one question on today's call. If you have another question, please requeue and we'll do our best to come back to you later in the session. Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，布萊斯。為了盡可能多地聯絡大家，請在今天的電話會議上只提問一個問題。如果您還有其他問題，請重新排隊，我們會盡力在稍後的會議中回覆您。接線員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

And our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

Yes. I was hoping to clarify one thing first on China. And really, the question is, what changed between October 12 with your press release and then October 30, where it looks like there really wasn't much of an impact at all? And then my -- I guess, real question is, as you think about calendar '23 WFE, it sounds like companies are providing kind of a top-down view that things for WFE are -- look weak and declining.

是的。我想先澄清一下關於中國的事情。真正的問題是，從你們10月12日發布新聞稿到10月30日之間發生了什麼變化？看起來似乎真的沒有太大的影響。然後，我想，真正的問題是，當你想到2023年的WFE時，聽起來各家公司似乎都自上而下地認為WFE的情況看起來很疲軟，而且正在下滑。

However, every company bottoms up, based on deferred revenues and backlogs are much more optimistic on the outlook. So can you kind of talk through the moving parts there? And what kind of range or outcome you see today for year-over-year silicon declines in calendar '23?

然而，每家公司都自下而上地看好前景，因為基於遞延收入和積壓訂單，前景更加樂觀。能談談其中的變化嗎？您認為2023年矽片產量年減的範圍或結果會是怎麼樣的？

Sure. C.J., it's Brice. I'll start on this one. So relative to the preannouncement that we did, we talked about a $400 million impact, plus or minus $150 million for the China trade change. And then as we work through it, that impact ended up being less around $280 million.

當然。我是C.J.，我是Brice。我先從這個開始說。相對於我們先前宣布的公告，我們談到了4億美元的影響，加上或減去1.5億美元，這部分影響與中國貿易政策的變化有關。然後，經過我們的計算，最終的影響大約在2.8億美元左右。

And it's just estimating the transactional elements at the end of the quarter. It was an initial element -- estimate, so we did a little bit better from that perspective. The other thing that really happened was execution in the end of the quarter was almost flawless from a logistics perspective.

這只是季度末交易要素的估算。這只是初步估算，所以從這個角度來看，我們做得更好。另一件真正發生的事情是，從物流角度來看，季度末的執行幾乎完美無缺。

We got more supply chain parts in at the end of the quarter. And so over $200 million of good news from an execution and delivery perspective, finishing product and completions in the field. So it was really those 2 things. It was little bit better than our initial estimate and execution was excellent in the last couple of weeks of the quarter.

我們在本季末獲得了更多供應鏈零件。因此，從執行和交付的角度來看，超過2億美元的好消息，包括產品完成和現場完工。所以，這真的就是這兩件事。這比我們最初的預期要好一些，而且在本季度最後幾週，執行情況非常出色。

And then on '23 -- the WFE question for '23, we think that it's preliminary. It's too early to give an estimate of '23. So what we're trying to share is what we're seeing in our order patterns and in our business for Q1 and Q2. We talked about -- in the script, how in Q1 -- or in our bookings for Q4, they were really solid. We did see pushouts. We did see weakness in the memory business, but our backlog has grown to a record level of backlog.

關於23年——關於WFE的問題，我們認為這只是初步的。現在就對23年做出估計還為時過早。因此，我們想分享的是，我們在第一季和第二季的訂單模式和業務中看到的情況。我們在計劃中提到，在第一季度，或者說在第四季度，我們的訂單表現非常穩健。我們確實看到了延期的情況。我們確實看到了內存業務的疲軟，但我們的積壓訂單已經增長到了創紀錄的水平。

So when we think about our Q1 and Q2, we're still supply constrained. We still have a number of different equipment lines that we have significant backlog. We're trying to catch up to customer orders. And so the signals to us really are that we have to work on supply chain, work on improving our output and work on catching up with our customers. So beyond that, we're just not able to make a call yet on WFE for '23.

因此，當我們考慮第一季和第二季時，我們仍然面臨供應受限的問題。我們仍然有許多不同的設備生產線積壓了大量訂單。我們正在努力滿足客戶訂單。因此，這實際上向我們發出了一個訊號：我們必須努力改善供應鏈，努力提高產量，並努力滿足客戶需求。除此之外，我們還無法預測2023年WFE的產量。

Yes. C.J., this is Gary. As Brice said, the -- we can certainly give a perspective on our business. We're not going to guide on overall WFE for '23. But we're in a very strong position. If you look at the kind of profile of the business, it's more weighted towards foundry/logic versus memory. And we have some very strong products where we have significant backlog, and we're still working to close the supply-demand gaps in those areas.

是的。 C.J.，我是Gary。正如Brice所說，我們當然可以對我們的業務發表一些看法。我們不會為2023年的整體WFE做出預測。但我們目前處於非常有利的地位。如果你看一下業務概況，你會發現它更側重於代工/邏輯晶片，而不是記憶體。我們有一些非常強大的產品，有大量積壓訂單，我們仍在努力彌補這些領域的供需缺口。

So from Applied's standpoint, as you know, it's all about the race for power and performance for all of our customers, and we're really well positioned with leading products and those big inflections. And again, our #1 focus is on closing the supply chain gaps.

所以，從應用材料公司的角度來看，正如你所知，我們所有客戶都在爭奪功率和性能，而我們憑藉領先的產品和那些重大變革，佔據了非常有利的地位。再次強調，我們的首要重點是縮小供應鏈差距。

And our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的史黛西·拉斯貢 (Stacy Rasgon)。

I wanted to ask you about the mitigated versus unmitigated impact from China. So you gave the numbers, $2.5 billion, and hoping to bring that down to like $1.5 billion. But I gathered a big element of that was getting licenses. Where do you expect those licenses to be gotten? Is that only to the multinational? Do you guys expect licenses to be given to some of the Chinese folks? I mean, how -- how could that happen? What is the mechanism by which you come in at the unmitigated number versus the -- come in at the mitigated number versus the unmitigated number?

我想問您關於中國緩解影響與未緩解影響之間的對比。您給出了25億美元的數字，並希望將其降至15億美元左右。但據我了解，其中很大一部分是獲得許可證。您預計這些許可證會從哪裡獲得？只發給跨國公司嗎？你們預計許可證也會發給一些中國公司嗎？我的意思是，這怎麼可能實現？您是如何得出未緩解影響與緩解影響之間的對比機制的？

Stacy, it's Brice. Yes, and it's important probably to say that this unmitigated versus mitigated, it has everything to do with the impact to the China shipments and Chinese customers. In other words, it's not referring to whether we can ship a product we are making for those customers to non-China customers.

史黛西，我是布萊斯。是的，而且可能重要的是，這種未緩解與緩解之間的差異，與對中國發貨和中國客戶的影響息息相關。換句話說，這並非指我們能否將為這些客戶生產的產品運送給中國以外的客戶。

So the unmitigated, the way we calculated this is we looked at the orders that we have for the affected customers, and that's what you see as the total, $2.5 billion. In order to mitigate that...

所以，我們計算的方法是，查看受影響客戶的訂單，也就是你們看到的總額，25億美元。為了減輕損失…

Does that include multinationals, too?

這也包括跨國公司嗎？

Say again.

再說吧。

I'm sorry. Does that include multinationals, too? Or is that just the local Chinese guys (inaudible)?

不好意思。這也包括跨國公司嗎？還是只包括中國本土公司（聽不清楚）？

It does not. It does not.

不是這樣的，不是這樣的。

So just (inaudible)?

那麼只是（聽不清楚）？

Yes. And so the way we looked at that, there are some customers that we're trying to clarify that we can apply for licenses for, or we can get authorizations for once they establish that their technology is within the guidelines. So we have a process to do that. And on the other side, we expect some customers may decide to change their plan or change their technology, so it does not go above the threshold that's affected by the rules at this point.

是的。我們對此的看法是，我們正在努力澄清，有些客戶我們可以申請許可證，或者一旦他們確定他們的技術符合指導方針，我們就可以為他們獲得授權。我們有一個流程來做到這一點。另一方面，我們預計有些客戶可能會決定更改他們的計劃或技術，因此目前不會超過受規則影響的門檻。

So it's really those 2 elements that we'll be able to clarify that some customers were able to ship with or ship to or some customers changing their plans on the technology side that would allow them to qualify for shipments.

因此，我們實際上可以澄清的是，這兩個因素使得一些客戶能夠隨貨發貨或送貨，或者一些客戶在技術方面改變他們的計劃，使他們有資格發貨。

What would that mean though? Would that suck up like supply that would have ordinarily gotten built by somebody else though? Because otherwise, you're just adding like lagging-edge supply into a vacuum, essentially. How do we think about like the second order effects here?

但這意味著什麼呢？這會不會把原本由其他人建造的供應量吸走？因為否則，本質上就是把滯後的供應量直接加到真空中。我們該如何看待這裡的二階效應呢？

Yes. We don't think so. We expect all that equipment to be utilized. And so if that equipment has moved to a different use, then we expect it will be backfilled somewhere else for its original demand purpose, if that makes sense.

是的。我們不這麼認為。我們預計所有設備都會被利用。因此，如果這些設備被轉移到其他用途，我們預計它們會被重新安置到其他地方，用於其最初的用途，如果這是合理的話。

Got it. And I guess just one last one. Right now, I guess, you're running at the unmitigated level. When do you think it will be at the mitigated level? Like, how likely do you think it will be -- you end up at the mitigated level at some point?

明白了。我想只剩下最後一個問題了。現在，我想，你的運作狀態是未緩解的。你認為什麼時候會達到緩解的水平？例如，你認為最終達到緩解水準的可能性有多大？

It's hard to say. It's a process. You can imagine there's a large number of people working on this. In fact, the whole industry is working on this. So it's job 2 at this point behind increasing output. So I would say it's still a good estimate today, and we're -- we'll be working throughout the year on improving the number of customers and plants that we can ship to.

很難說。這是一個過程。你可以想像，有很多人在為此努力。事實上，整個產業都在為此努力。所以，目前，這是僅次於提高產量的第二項工作。所以我認為，今天的預測仍然很準確，而且我們全年都會致力於提高客戶和工廠的出貨量。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I just wanted to clarify. I thought, Brice, you said somewhere that you provided some look for Q2. I don't think I [caught] that. And then several of your memory customers that said that their spending could be down over 50% next year. Recently, Micron said it could be down even more than that.

我只是想澄清一下。 Brice，我記得你說過你對第二季的預測。我想我沒聽懂。然後你們的幾位記憶體客戶說，他們明年的支出可能會下降50%以上。最近，美光公司表示，降幅可能更大。

Have you noticed almost 50% cancellation of orders from them? Because I'm just trying to reconcile your commentary that sounds outside of China, of course, more benign and more supportive versus just the very horrific guidance that your memory customers are providing.

你有沒有註意到他們那裡的訂單取消率幾乎達到50%？我只是想解釋一下你的評論，聽起來比中國以外的人更溫和、更支持，而不是你記憶中那些客戶提供的那些非常可怕的指導。

I understand you're less exposed to memory versus foundry/logic, but still, it's a reasonable size exposure. So I'm curious, has that 50% cut in CapEx translated to any reduction in your backlog or any change in your thinking about memory for next year?

我知道你們在記憶體方面的投入比代工/邏輯業務要少，但規模還是合理的。所以我很好奇，資本支出削減50%是否意味著你們的積壓訂單有所減少，或者你們對明年記憶體業務的規劃有什麼變化？

Okay. Thanks, Vivek. So we're not giving a guide for Q2. We are highlighting the record backlog and the fact that we're constrained and the fact that in several equipment lines, we're behind on customer orders. So we're going to try to increase output.

好的。謝謝，Vivek。所以我們不會給出第二季的產量指引。我們強調的是創紀錄的積壓訂單、我們受到的限制以及幾條設備生產線落後於客戶訂單的事實。所以我們將努力提高產量。

And I'd say that comment is true for both Q1 and Q2. So that's as much shaping as we're providing for Q2. On the memory side, just to kind of click back and think about the overall demand environment, we positioned last quarter that we had a significant amount more demand than we have the ability to supply for '23.

我想說，這句話對第一季和第二季都適用。所以，這和我們為第二季提供的塑造是一樣的。在記憶體方面，回顧整體需求環境，我們上個季度的預測是，2023年的需求量遠遠超過了我們的供應能力。

What did happen during the course of this quarter is there is a significant amount of pushouts and reductions in that demand. Now you can see the end result. We still had solid bookings in Q4. We still -- we created a record backlog that's now disclosed. So I would say that some of those pushouts and some of those reductions were definitely in the memory space.

本季確實發生了一些事情，需求出現了大幅延遲和減少。現在您可以看到最終結果了。我們在第四季仍然擁有穩定的訂單量。我們仍然創造了創紀錄的積壓訂單量，現在已披露。所以，我想說，其中一些延遲和一些減少的訂單量肯定已經記不清了。

And I wouldn't -- I'm not going to characterize what percentage it was, but I would say that that's the most affected area in the business in terms of pushouts and reductions for '23.

我不會——我不會描述它的百分比是多少，但我想說，就 23 年的延遲和減少而言，這是業務中受影響最嚴重的領域。

So you are seeing a 50% type reduction? I'm just trying to align what we are hearing from those customers versus what you are seeing on the ground in your business.

所以您看到類型減少了50%？我只是想把我們從客戶那裡聽到的情況與您在實際業務中看到的情況進行對比。

Yes. Sorry, I can't quantify exactly what it is. I'll just say that, that is what -- it's biased, the reductions were biased in that area.

是的。抱歉，我無法確切量化它是什麼。我只能說，這就是——它是有偏見的，那個領域的削減是有偏見的。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

Brice or Gary, I just wanted to find out, you mentioned how lagging edge is still pretty strong, especially auto, analog in China. And I wonder like do you ever think that auto, analog could be the next (inaudible)? But in other words, if memory is going to be down next year, but lagging edge holds up, what is the risk that lagging edge rolls over in 2024 and you have 2 years of lackluster WFE?

Brice 或 Gary，我只是想了解一下，您提到了滯後技術仍然相當強勁，尤其是在中國的汽車和模擬技術。我想知道您是否認為汽車和模擬技術可能會成為下一個（聽不清楚）？換句話說，如果明年記憶體會下降，但滯後技術卻保持穩定，那麼滯後技術在 2024 年失效，而 WFE 在接下來的兩年裡表現平平的風險有多大？

Okay. I'll start, maybe Gary wants to say something. We don't have a specific guide for what we call ICAPS, our mature node businesses. What we would say is there was significant growth in 2022. And when we think about all the end markets, we think the end markets are mixed. We know some of the consumer markets and even industrial have seen some weakening.

好的。我先說，Gary 可能想說些什麼。我們沒有針對成熟節點業務（ICAPS）的具體指南。我們想說的是，2022 年該業務實現了顯著成長。考慮到所有終端市場，我們認為終端市場表現好壞參半。我們知道一些消費市場，甚至工業市場都出現了一些疲軟。

But on the positive side, automotive and the power market that feeds EV and solar and other areas has been really strong. So for us, this is a critical market. We're continuing to invest and continuing to focus in this area, and we would just highlight to investors that the growth has been very strong.

但積極的一面是，汽車以及為電動車、太陽能和其他領域提供動力的電力市場一直非常強勁。所以對我們來說，這是一個至關重要的市場。我們將繼續投資並持續關注這一領域，我們想向投資者強調的是，這一領域的成長非常強勁。

Yes. Krish, the other thing I would add is that we're -- we've made a change in our organization more than 3 years ago, forming our ICAPS group. And we have just very, very deep engagements with our customers, both on a technical and a support side of our business. And we have the broadest set of innovative products for ICAPS.

是的。 Krish，我想補充的是，我們三年多前就對組織架構進行了調整，成立了ICAPS集團。我們與客戶在技術和支援方面都保持著非常深入的合作。我們擁有ICAPS最廣泛的創新產品。

If I look at where we're at today, those are some of the areas that -- where we have significant backlog. (inaudible) in FY '23 are very, very strong for us. Those are areas where we have significant demand from customers. And ICAPS is similar in that to the -- all of the rest of our business.

如果我回顧一下我們目前的狀況，就會發現這些領域——我們有大量積壓訂單。 （聽不清楚）23財年，這些領域對我們來說非常非常強勁。這些領域我們的客戶需求量很大。 ICAPS在這方面與我們所有其他業務類似。

This is always a race for all of these customers relative to power, performance and cost. And ICAPS is really materials enabled. We have a really strong team there. We have a great pipeline of products. I will guarantee you every year will not be up. That's for sure. We're not going to guide '24, but we are in a very good position in ICAPS relative to enabling technology for future inflections.

對於所有這些客戶來說，這始終是一場關於功率、性能和成本的競爭。 ICAPS 真正實現了材料賦能。我們在那裡擁有一支非常強大的團隊。我們擁有豐富的產品線。我保證，每年都不會缺貨。這是肯定的。我們不會預測 24 年的銷售情況，但我們在 ICAPS 中處於非常有利的地位，能夠為未來的技術變革提供支援。

And our next question comes from the line of Mark Lipacis with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Mark Lipacis。

Gary, maybe for you. It seems like the consensus for WFE this year is somewhere in the $65 billion to $75 billion range. And I'm not asking you to give a guidance or an outlook for next year. But I'm wondering in the scenario where that is proven to be too cautious of an outlook for next year, based on the conversations that you have with your customers, would you say that, that would be because lead times are long and customers just -- they don't want to cancel orders or there's new secular drivers, like bigger chips or advanced packaging or trailing-node, like some of the things you've talked about or just competition at the leading-edge is driving people to invest more, enabled by subsidies?

加里，也許對你來說是這樣。今年WFE的共識似乎是在650億美元到750億美元之間。我不是想請您給明年的指引或展望。但我想知道，根據您與客戶的溝通，如果事實證明您對明年的展望過於謹慎，您會不會認為這是因為交貨時間較長，客戶不想取消訂單，或者出現了新的長期驅動因素，比如更大的芯片、先進的封裝或尾隨節點，就像您提到的一些投資因素一樣，或者僅僅是前沿領域的競爭促使人們在補貼的競爭下增加？

What are your customers suggesting to you or what -- I mean, your backlog grew even as memory came down, like what do you think are the biggest drivers into next year, regardless of whatever the end number is? And what could surprise on the upside?

您的客戶給您提出了什麼建議？或者說，即使記憶體減少，您的積壓訂單仍在增加。無論您最終的數字是多少，您認為明年最大的驅動因素是什麼？有哪些方面可能會帶來驚喜？

Yes, Mark, thanks for the question. So all of our customers in any of these different markets, the technology is moving very, very quickly. So they're all racing against each other for power, performance cost, their relative competitive position.

是的，馬克，謝謝你的提問。我們所有不同市場的客戶，科技發展都非常迅速。所以他們都在爭奪功率、性能成本和相對競爭地位。

So certainly, as you mentioned in the leading-edge foundry/logic, there's a tremendous amount of focus there, high-performance computing in a number of those different markets. And again, for Applied, what we've talked about is real strength in enabling new structures that are critical to competitive positions for our customers. Gate-all-around is an incremental $1 billion for Applied for 100,000 wafer starts more than what we're currently capturing with FinFET. We're on path to gain 5 points of share in the transition from FinFET to gate-all-around.

所以，正如您所提到的，在尖端代工/邏輯領域，我們非常關注高效能運算，這涉及許多不同的市場。對於應用材料公司來說，我們剛才談到的是實現新結構方面的真正實力，這對於我們客戶的競爭優勢至關重要。環柵技術將為應用材料公司帶來10億美元的增量收入，比我們目前FinFET技術多生產10萬片晶圓。我們正朝著從FinFET轉向環柵技術的過渡，爭取提升5個百分點的市場份額的目標前進。

Wiring is probably the #1 focus, and I don't know that everyone really understands how important that inflection is for our customers. That's an area where we have tremendous strength. We're enabling a 50% reduction in wiring resistance with integrated platforms that combine many technologies together. So that's another one where Applied is really well positioned. Packaging has grown for Applied to nearly $1 billion, and we have over 50% share in the broad -- in our served market. And we have, by far, the broadest position in advanced packaging, and we're still in the early innings of that inflection. But again, that's all part of this technology race for all of our customers.

佈線可能是我們關注的首要問題，我不知道是否每個人都真正理解這種轉變對我們的客戶有多重要。而這正是我們擁有巨大優勢的領域。我們透過融合多種技術的整合平台，將佈線電阻降低了50%。因此，這也是應用材料公司在封裝領域佔優勢的另一個原因。應用材料公司的封裝業務規模已成長至近10億美元，在我們服務的市場中，我們擁有超過50%的份額。到目前為止，我們在先進封裝領域擁有最廣泛的市場地位，而且我們仍處於這一轉變的初期階段。但同樣，這都是我們所有客戶參與的技術競賽的一部分。

ICAPS. I mentioned that earlier on the call. Those are also markets where I think it's surprising to people, including you've seen some of our peers talking about ICAPS growth over a longer period of time, there are technology inflections there. And that's, as I mentioned earlier, metal deposition, implant, those are areas where we're very, very -- in very strong enabling positions with our customers.

ICAPS。我之前在電話會議上提到過。我認為這些市場也令人驚訝，包括你在內的一些同業也談到了ICAPS的長期成長，那裡的技術正在轉變。正如我之前提到的，金屬沉積和植入，這些領域我們在客戶面前擁有非常強大的支援優勢。

I think the other thing for Applied, beyond all of these different areas, high-speed DRAM with logic-like structures, all of those big inflections, our PDC business grew, I think, it was 67% in FY '21. We're up around 35% in FY '22. That business is also outperforming, and we think that will continue to outperform as we go forward. So at least from an Applied standpoint, it's really all around those big inflections and how we're positioned for those major inflections. So I don't know if Brice, if you want to add anything?

我認為，對於應用材料公司來說，除了所有這些不同的領域，例如具有類似邏輯結構的高速 DRAM 以及所有這些重大轉折點之外，我們的 PDC 業務也實現了成長，我認為在 21 財年增長了 67%。 22 財年成長了約 35%。這項業務也表現出色，我們認為未來將持續保持優異表現。所以，至少從應用材料公司的角度來看，一切都圍繞著這些重大轉折點，以及我們如何應對這些重大轉折點。所以，Brice，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I would just comment that the -- we highlighted that we still have to catch up to customer demand in several areas. So that adds some momentum into '23. And then the other piece is just it seems clear that productivity -- to drive productivity in the world, a lot of these things, like in the energy market, data center market, et cetera, still have resilient demand.

不。我只是想說——我們強調過，我們仍然需要在幾個領域滿足客戶的需求。這為2023年增添了一些動力。另一方面，很明顯，生產力——為了推動全球生產力的發展，許多領域，例如能源市場、資料中心市場等等，仍然有著強勁的需求。

And our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿蒂夫馬利克 (Atif Malik)。

Gary, I have a question on long-term impact of China restrictions to both domestic and multinational spend. If I look at China spending over the last 5 years, it has outgrown WFE by 3 to 4x. What replaces this in terms of pending capital intensity and above-average profitability for you?

加里，我有一個問題，關於中國限制措施對國內和跨國公司支出的長期影響。如果我回顧過去5年，中國的支出成長是WFE的3到4倍。就未來的資本密集度和高於平均的獲利能力而言，什麼可以取代它？

Yes. Atif, I'll start. This is Brice. I think on the China side, when we look at that impact, the larger part of the business has been on the trailing-nodes for us, and we expect that to still be a very strong business for Applied. And we see that in both the factory projects that we monitor and also in the different end markets where there's investments.

是的。首先，我先說阿蒂夫。我是布萊斯。我認為，就中國市場而言，當我們考察其影響時，我們發現大部分業務都集中在尾隨節點上，我們預計這仍然是應用材料公司非常強大的業務。無論是在我們關注的工廠項目，還是在有投資的不同終端市場，我們都看到了這一點。

And then on the leading-edge, if it's a question of do we expect that demand to be taken away from WFE demand globally and permanently, we don't. It will either be satisfied in some way in China, either by multinationals or in some other way or it will move to another geography.

至於尖端技術，如果我們要問，全球對WFE的需求是否會被永久取代，答案是不會。要么中國會以某種方式滿足WFE的需求，要么通過跨國公司或其他方式，要么轉移到其他地區。

So we don't believe that, that will be an impact. And just circling back around, I would just focus on over time, we expect the China market to be a strong grower, especially in the ICAPS mature node space.

所以我們認為這不會產生影響。回到正題，我只想關注的是，隨著時間的推移，我們預計中國市場將會強勁成長，尤其是在ICAPS成熟節點領域。

And our next question comes from the line of Toshi Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshi Hari。

I wanted to ask about the AGS business going into next fiscal year and calendar year. Obviously, it's been a very steady grower for you guys and for the overall industry. Many of your leading-edge memory customers and logic and foundry customers, I believe, are in the process of [cutting] the wafer starts potentially over the next couple of quarters.

我想問AGS業務在下一財年和下一自然年度的情況。顯然，對你們以及整個產業來說，它一直是一個非常穩定的成長。我相信，你們的許多前沿記憶體客戶以及邏輯和代工客戶都可能在未來幾季內開始削減晶圓產能。

So I guess the question is, when you cite services as one of the reasons why you'll outperform into next year, is the baseline assumption that business continues to grow given the installed base growth and given how you transform the mix of that business? Or could it be down (inaudible)?

所以我想問題是，當您將服務作為明年業績表現優異的原因之一時，是否基於以下基本假設：鑑於客戶群的成長以及您如何轉變業務結構，服務業務將繼續成長？還是可能會下降（聽不清楚）？

Thanks, Toshi. Yes. A couple of drivers here. You'll see in our outlook for Q1 that we have a down quarter for AGS, which is unusual. And the reason is we've got a full quarter impact approximately $100 million for the reduction of the China customers that we won't be able to serve for the rest of the year.

謝謝，Toshi。是的。這裡有幾個驅動因素。您會在我們第一季的展望中看到，AGS 的季度業績出現下滑，這很不尋常。原因是我們今年剩餘時間無法為中國客戶提供服務，導致整個季度的損失約 1 億美元。

So that's definitely a headwind in Q1. But you hit the nail on the head with respect to the dynamics thereafter. Every time we ship a tool, it grows our installed base of equipment. We grew the installed base 8% last year. Beyond -- or after that, our ability to provide services and put those services on subscription agreements, we typically outgrow the installed base than we did last year.

所以這在第一季肯定是一個阻力。但關於之後的動態，你的說法一針見血。我們每次出貨一款工具，都會增加我們的設備安裝基數。去年，我們的設備安裝基數成長了8%。除此之外，或者說在此之後，我們提供服務並將這些服務納入訂閱協議的能力，通常情況下，我們的設備安裝基數增長會比去年更快。

So that is the driver for the reason the services business is sticky. We have more equipment to serve. The equipment becomes more intensive in terms of service needs. And over time, that grows the business. Now to your point, a portion of the business is transactional.

這就是服務業務如此黏稠的原因。我們需要服務的設備越來越多，這些設備對服務的需求也越來越大。隨著時間的推移，業務也隨之成長。正如您所說，一部分業務是交易性的。

We do see lower utilization this quarter and next quarter. What we would point to -- what we have pointed to is, even in '19, where there was lower utilization, we still grew the services business. And besides the headwind of China that I pointed out, we expect that to be the dynamic this year and going forward.

我們確實看到本季和下季的利用率有所下降。我們要指出的是—我們已經指出的是，即使在2019年利用率較低的情況下，我們的服務業務仍然實現了成長。除了我指出的中國市場的逆風之外，我們預計這將是今年及未來的主要動力。

Toshiya, this is Gary. I'll add a little bit more color. So we do expect services to be up in '23. The -- as Brice mentioned, transactional will be down based on capacity utilization. But our profile, with a significant amount of our service and spares business being agreements gives us stickiness going forward. And that is continuing to increase, the comprehensive agreements up 16% last year.

Toshiya，我是Gary。我來補充一下。我們確實預計2023年服務業務將會有所成長。正如Brice所提到的，由於產能利用率的原因，交易業務會有所下降。但我們的服務和備件業務很大一部分是協議業務，這讓我們未來具有黏性。而且這種黏性還在持續成長，去年綜合協議業務成長了16%。

The tenure of our agreements, the length of the agreements are up to 2.6 years, renewal rates at 93%. So we're -- and it was an interesting thing through the -- all of the chip shortage period of time, we were able to demonstrate value for customers with ramp services to accelerate chip output, managed part services so that people could increase tool availability and output, managed services for yield and optimizing productivity.

我們的協議期限最長為2.6年，續約率為93%。因此，在整個晶片短缺時期，我們能夠透過加速服務（加速晶片產量）、託管零件服務（使人們能夠提高工具可用性和產量）、託管服務（提高產量並優化生產力）向客戶展示價值，這是一件有趣的事情。

So all of that helped us position our service business in a higher value for our customers. And again, that's what gives us the ability to continue to grow into '23. And then the longer-term model we've communicated is double-digit growth and we still have high confidence we'll achieve that.

所有這些都幫助我們將服務業務定位於更高的客戶價值。這也讓我們有能力在2023年繼續成長。我們傳達的長期模式是兩位數成長，我們仍然對實現這一目標充滿信心。

And our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Another follow-up on AGS. So looking back on fiscal '22, your semi systems operating margin declined about 200 basis points on strong revenue growth, obviously due to the inflationary cost pressures. But your AGS business sustained near-record operating margins at 30%. So I guess how has the team been able to sustain the record or near-record AGS operating profitability in this inflationary environment?

關於AGS的另一個後續問題。回顧22財年，貴公司的半系統業務營業利潤率在強勁的營收成長下下降了約200個基點，這顯然是由於通膨成本壓力造成的。但貴公司的AGS業務卻維持了接近歷史最高水準的30%的營業利益率。那麼，我想問一下，在這種通膨環境下，團隊是如何維持AGS業務創紀錄或接近歷史最高水準的營業利潤率的呢？

And more importantly, in a down year or potential down year next year, you guys talked last call, this call, sustainability of AGS from a revenue perspective. How should we think about the sustainability of operating margins for AGS?

更重要的是，在明年業績下滑或可能下滑的情況下，你們上次和這次都從收入角度討論了AGS的可持續性。我們該如何看待AGS營業利潤率的可持續性？

Yes. Harlan, it's -- thank you. So one thing I would call out is we did have lower gross margins and operating margins in Q4, and that's largely due to looking at the specific inventory we had for China customers that will have to either reposition or move somewhere else or scrap. But to your point on operating profit, one of the plans the business has there is to improve the amount of repair that we do for products that we bring back to customers.

是的。哈蘭，謝謝。我想說的是，我們第四季的毛利率和營業利潤率確實有所下降，這主要是因為我們為中國客戶準備的庫存要么需要重新配置，要么需要轉移到其他地方，要么需要報廢。至於你提到的營業利潤，我們在中國的業務計畫之一是提高返修產品的維修率。

And so that helps us lower the cost and cost of goods sold with customers. And that's one of the ways that we improve our gross margins and the ultimate profit of that business. The other is just increased efficiency. As we demonstrate more and more capability with the customers, and we provide more services with the same spending profile, then that helps us maintain the profitability. Those are the 2 key drivers.

這有助於我們降低成本和銷售給客戶的商品成本。這也是我們提高毛利率和最終業務利潤的方法之一。另一個方法是提高效率。隨著我們向客戶展示越來越多的能力，並以相同的支出結構提供更多服務，這有助於我們保持獲利能力。這是兩個關鍵驅動因素。

And our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

I wanted to ask about the gross margin impact from the China restriction. Can you talk about what's driving that 1 percentage point impact? And then how do we think about what you could potentially recapture in the mitigated scenario that you outlined?

我想問中國限制措施對毛利率的影響。能談談造成這1個百分點影響的原因嗎？然後，在您概述的緩解情境下，您認為可以恢復多少利潤？

Yes. So 2 things. And it depends on which time period you look at. But if we look forward, the gross margin impact is really that they're generally smaller customers. So the profitability of those customers for Applied is higher.

是的。所以有兩點。這取決於你關注的時間段。但如果我們展望未來，毛利率的影響其實是因為他們通常都是規模較小的客戶。因此，這些客戶對應用材料公司的獲利能力更高。

And when we talk about mitigation, as we go forward, it's going to be TBD as to who we sell that product to and what the profitability is. So at this point, we're expecting the impact that we described. And if you look at the current quarter, we did have specific inventory for customers that's unique.

當我們談到緩解措施時，隨著我們未來的發展，我們將把產品賣給誰以及盈利能力如何，這些都還有待確定。所以目前，我們預計會產生之前描述的影響。如果你看一下本季的情況，你會發現我們確實為客戶準備了獨特的庫存。

We are working to qualify some of that inventory, and we were successful to a degree, but we did have specific inventory that we had to take a demand [reserve] on.

我們正在努力使部分庫存合格，並且在一定程度上取得了成功，但我們確實有一些特定的庫存需要滿足需求（儲備）。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀證券的提摩西‧阿庫裡。

Gary, I had a question about WFE intensity. So we're exiting this year at 15.5%, and you were saying that through 2030, you think WFE is going to grow faster than semiconductors. You've certainly been beating that drum now for a while that WFE intensity is going to keep going up.

加里，我有一個關於WFE強度的問題。我們今年的出口量為15.5%，您之前說過，到2030年，您認為WFE的成長速度將超過半導體。您肯定一直在強調WFE強度將繼續上升。

And obviously, there are some underlying upward pressures. But China has obviously been ordering tools and building capacity well ahead of demand now, in part due to the fear of these bans. So if China becomes a little more of a lagging tier region, wouldn't that lower WFE intensity a bit and maybe argue that maybe it has to reset a bit?

顯然，存在一些潛在的上行壓力。但中國顯然已經訂購了工具並建立了產能，遠遠超過了需求，部分原因是擔心這些禁令。因此，如果中國成為稍微落後的地區，這難道不會降低WFE的強度嗎？或許有人會認為它可能需要稍微調整一下？

Tim, I'll jump in for a second here just because I have the picture of the graph in my mind that we use. So we do think intensity is gradually increasing, and it's because of the reasons Gary described. A lot of steps in the process are becoming more complex and require more equipment, and we see that.

提姆，我插播一下，因為我腦子裡已經有了我們使用的圖表的畫面。我們確實認為強度正在逐漸增加，這是因為加里所描述的原因。我們看到，流程中的許多步驟變得越來越複雜，需要更多的設備。

And then when we think about China and ICAPS specifically, in the past, there's been a lot of reuse of existing fabs and existing process tools. And that allowed for a low intensity. And that's not been what's happening in the past few years and with recent additions.

然後，當我們具體思考中國和ICAPS時，我們會發現過去，現有晶圓廠和製程工具被大量重複使用。這使得生產強度較低。但過去幾年以及最近的新增項目並沒有發生這種情況。

We've talked about the number of factory projects that we see. So as capacity gets added, even in the ICAPS space, what you see is an intensity level that's more like what we were experiencing on the leading-edge just a few years ago. And that's also serving to raise the overall average of intensity. So we're pretty confident that intensity will continue to rise.

我們之前討論過我們看到的工廠項目數量。因此，隨著產能增加，即使在ICAPS領域，你看到的強度水平也更像我們幾年前在前沿領域所經歷的水平。這也有助於提高整體平均強度。因此，我們非常有信心，強度將繼續上升。

Tim, on the -- relative to ICAPS, just reminding people that there was a time period where you had a lot of movement of business to foundries. And during that time period, there were many factories and tools that came on the market, all of that stuff is gone. So that's what Brice was referring to relative to ICAPS capital intensities.

提姆，關於ICAPS，我想提醒大家，曾經有一段時間，很多業務都轉移到了代工廠。在那段時間裡，市場上湧現許多工廠和工具，但這些東西現在都消失了。這就是布萊斯所說的ICAPS資本密集度。

And then if you look at all of the -- I went through a list of key inflections -- technology inflections for customers and I gave some color around wiring and the number of steps that are increasing. That's what we're seeing really in all of the different segments of the business. So I think that capital intensity is probably the right ZIP code if we look through 2030.

然後，如果你看一下所有這些——我列出了一系列關鍵的技術變化——客戶技術的變化，並詳細闡述了佈線和步驟數量的增加。這正是我們在所有不同業務領域所看到的。所以，我認為，如果我們展望2030年，資本密集度可能是正確的郵遞區號。

And our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫·摩爾。

Great. I wonder if you could talk about the environment in China with the multinationals. Obviously, they need to get a license, they did immediately get a license, but it's a 12-month license. So would you say that you generally see the footprint moving away from China with those multinational customers? Do you see any potential for that to become an issue down the road? Can you just talk generally to the fact that the multinationals were included in this?

太好了。您能否談談跨國公司在中國的業務環境？顯然，他們需要獲得許可證，他們確實立即獲得了許可證，但許可證的有效期是12個月。那麼您認為，這些跨國公司的業務足跡正在逐漸遠離中國嗎？您認為這在未來會成為一個問題嗎？您能否概括地談談跨國公司也參與其中的情況？

Yes, Joe, this is Gary. Thanks for the question. The multinationals are not impacted today. Relative to their strategies, we'd really rather have them comment on that. So again, just today, they're not impacted. How they position their businesses geographically, that's really up to them.

是的，喬，我是加里。謝謝你的提問。跨國公司目前沒有受到影響。就他們的策略而言，我們更希望他們對此發表評論。所以，就目前而言，他們並沒有受到影響。他們的業務地理定位如何，這完全取決於他們自己。

And our next question comes from the line of Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I want to follow up on the earlier question on the longer-term WFE. As you think about the growth of WFE in the next, call it, 3 to 5 years, how do you think about the mix between the different type of tools, how that could change? Meaning, deposition (inaudible) versus litho versus process control, as you talk to your customers about the road map and technology inflections.

我想繼續之前關於長期WFE的問題。您設想未來3到5年WFE的成長，您如何看待不同類型設備的組合？這種組合將如何改變？例如，當您與客戶討論路線圖和技術變化時，您指的是沉積（聽不清楚）、光刻和製程控制。

And I also want to ask about -- I assume your served addressable market will continue to expand, but maybe help us understand how much would that grow.

我也想問一下——我認為您所服務的目標市場將繼續擴大，但也許可以幫助我們了解其成長幅度。

Yes. Sidney, thanks for the question. So if you look at what our customers are talking about relative to their road maps, really, there are 5 big drivers of the technologies going forward, workload-specific architectures. There are new structures, new materials, new ways to shrink, new advanced packaging inflections for our customers. And so what we see, if you look at the advanced foundry/logic road map, you see a tremendous focus on new structures and new materials.

是的。 Sidney，謝謝你的提問。如果你看看我們的客戶在談論他們的路線圖時談到的內容，你會發現，未來技術發展的五大驅動力是：特定工作負載的架構。我們為客戶提供新結構、新材料、新的縮小尺寸的方法以及新的先進封裝技術。因此，如果你看一下先進的代工/邏輯路線圖，你會發現，人們非常關注新結構和新材料。

The transistor innovations around gate-all-around are essential relative to power and performance. Wiring, I talked a lot about wiring. Our largest business is metal deposition, and the wires are getting thinner and resistance goes up. So you're seeing more dollars moving in that direction.

圍繞環柵技術的電晶體創新對於功耗和性能至關重要。佈線，我之前談了很多。我們最大的業務是金屬沉積，而佈線越來越細，電阻也越來越高。所以你會看到越來越多的資金流向這個方向。

Advanced packaging is an area where we see -- for sure, that's another big -- 1 of the big 5 drivers for the road maps for our customers. And that's still in the early innings around $1 billion business for us today, over 50% served market for the areas we participate. And so we see that one.

先進封裝是我們看到的一個領域－當然，這也是我們客戶發展路線圖的五大驅動力之一。目前，先進封裝業務仍處於起步階段，規模約10億美元，在我們參與的領域，服務市場超過50%。所以，我們看到了這一點。

That's an area that will attract a tremendous amount of investment. And relative to competition between customers is very, very important. In memory, you certainly see material scaling in 3D NAND as customers are moving to more layers or other ways to include logic and memory together through different technology inflections. DRAM is moving to high speed. And so you have high-K metal gate and logic-like structures there.

這是一個將吸引大量投資的領域。客戶之間的競爭也至關重要。在記憶體領域，隨著客戶轉向更多層級或透過不同的技術融合其他方式將邏輯和記憶體整合在一起，你肯定會看到3D NAND的材料規模不斷擴大。 DRAM正在向高速發展，因此出現了高K金屬閘極和類似邏輯的結構。

So a lot of that investment is moving more towards materials-enabled technologies, and that's where Applied has really a tremendous strength. I don't know, Brice, if you want to add anything there?

所以，許多投資都轉向了材料賦能技術，而這正是應用材料公司真正強大的優勢。布萊斯，還有什麼想補充的嗎？

No. Good. Thanks.

不，很好。謝謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

Just had a question with the CHIPS Act applications expected to be received or submitted beginning sort of the February time frame. I'm wondering as you look at your '23 WFE outlook, do you expect to see any benefits from CHIPS Act spending in '23? Or do you think it's really more of a '24 and beyond before it hits WFE spending?

我有個問題，關於《晶片法案》（CHIPS Act）的申請預計在2月份左右開始收到或提交。我想知道，您展望了2023年的WFE前景，您預計2023年CHIPS法案的支出會帶來什麼好處嗎？還是說，您認為它實際上要到2024年及以後才會影響WFE支出？

We do expect, Quinn, a small, really small amount in '23. On the equipment side, it will likely really start in '24 as a number of those projects are -- start with construction. There are a few that will start with equipment, but it will really, for us be more the '24 time frame.

奎因，我們確實預期2023年會有少量，非常少的投入。設備方面，很可能要到2024年才能真正開始，因為很多工程都是從建造開始的。有一些專案會從設備開始，但對我們來說，這實際上更可能是2024年的時間框架。

Quinn, one thing I'd add is that those investments are time bound. And so as Brice said, not so much in '23, starting in '24, but there are -- there is timing associated with those incentives.

奎因，我想補充一點，這些投資是有時間限制的。正如布萊斯所說，不是在2023年，而是從2024年開始，但這些激勵措施是有時間限制的。

Thanks, Quinn. And operator, we have time for 2 more questions today.

謝謝，Quinn。接線員，今天我們還有時間回答兩個問題。

And our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu with New Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Gary, I'd like to come back to the comments you made about capital intensity and the specifics at the trailing-edge part of your portfolio. And so you described there, I think, like 3 reasons why capital intensity -- I mean, 2 reasons why capital intensity is very high there. I mean, higher than in the past. The first one is that there is no innovation going on.

加里，我想回到你關於資本密集度以及投資組合尾端部分具體情況的評論。我認為你描述了導致資本密集度非常高的三個原因——我的意思是，有兩個原因導致資本密集度比過去更高。第一個原因是沒有創新。

So like -- that drives capital intensity up. And then you mentioned the fact that there used to be like a secondhand market that was (inaudible) the trailing edge that is kind of going away. And my question is there must be also a third element that justifies a very high capital intensity today, which is that we've been growing capacity very, very fast this year than last year.

所以——這推高了資本密集度。然後你提到，過去存在類似二手市場的情況，它（聽不清楚）處於落後階段，現在逐漸消失。我的問題是，肯定還有第三個因素導致瞭如今如此高的資本密集度，那就是我們今年的產能成長速度比去年非常非常快。

And there is a significant chance that the capacity growth is at some point going to slow down or even to pause. And so I'd like to hear your thoughts about that and maybe a sense of how much it could impact in the shorter term capital intensity.

產能成長很有可能在某個時候放緩甚至暫停。我想聽聽您對此的看法，以及這對短期資本密集度的影響有多大。

Pierre, this is Gary. Thanks for the question. So I will say that we're 100% certain that all of these markets will not be up every year. But what we do see, if you think about pick a number, in terms of edge computing devices by 2030, these technologies are becoming much, much more pervasive. They're really -- if you think about industrial automation or gas to smart electric vehicles, a number of different inflections, a lot of these ICAPS technologies are going to grow at a fair compound annual growth rate.

皮埃爾，我是加里。謝謝你的提問。所以我要說的是，我們百分之百肯定這些市場不會每年都成長。但我們確實看到，如果你考慮一個數字，就邊緣運算設備而言，到2030年，這些技術將會越來越普及。它們真的——如果你考慮工業自動化、從天然氣到智慧電動車等各種不同的轉變，你會發現很多ICAPS技術都將以相當高的複合年增長率成長。

And I think that's what other people are seeing also. So how that -- what the shape of that looks like every single year, we're not going to forecast that. But we do think that, that business is going to see healthy growth. And that's why also we formed the ICAPS organization 3 years ago. We saw that, that market was going to be significant from a growth perspective and pulled together all of our different technologies.

我認為其他人也看到了這一點。至於每年的情況如何，我們無法預測。但我們確實認為，這項業務將實現健康成長。這也是我們三年前成立ICAPS組織的原因。我們預見到，從成長的角度來看，這個市場將具有重要意義，並將我們所有的不同技術整合在一起。

So again, if I look across all of those segments within ICAPS, we think over the longer term, there will be significant compound annual growth rates. We have very, very strong positions in enabling some of those technology inflections in ICAPS, but not going to give a specific profile on a year-by-year basis.

所以，如果我縱觀ICAPS的所有細分市場，我認為從長遠來看，複合年增長率將會非常可觀。我們在推動ICAPS某些技術變革方面擁有非常強大的優勢，但我們不會逐年提供具體的數據。

And our final question comes from the line of David O'Connor with [Exane BNP].

我們的最後一個問題來自 [Exane BNP] 的 David O'Connor。

Great. Follow-up on the backlog to a previous question. Gary or Brice, how should we think about the time frame of getting the backlog back to a kind of more normalized level? Or when do you expect to get caught up on demand for those products that are running pretty (inaudible) on the PPACt side?

太好了。關於積壓訂單，我先回答一下之前的問題。 Gary 或 Brice，我們應該如何規劃讓積壓訂單恢復到更正常水準的時間框架？或者說，你們預計什麼時候才能滿足那些在 PPACt 方面運作良好（聽不清楚）的產品的需求？

Yes. Thanks, David. We're expecting it's going to take us more than 2 quarters. So depending on the line of equipment, I would say between 2 and 4 quarters is our internal estimate. And so -- that's what we're focused on. We are behind with the customers, and we're working on increasing output every week. Thanks for the question.

是的。謝謝，大衛。我們預計這將耗時超過兩個季度。根據設備生產線的不同，我們的內部估計大約需要2到4個季度。所以——這就是我們關注的重點。我們目前落後於客戶，我們正在努力每週提高產量。謝謝你的提問。

Yes. Thanks, David, for your question. And Brice, would you like to give us your closing thoughts today?

是的。謝謝大衛的提問。布萊斯，您今天想跟我們分享一下您的總結嗎？

Absolutely. Clearly, there are questions about the market in the near term. But for our part, we had healthy Q4 orders, and we have record backlog that we described and it's mostly in our leadership product areas that drive the big technology inflections. Job 1 for us is increasing our output to meet customer demand.

確實如此。顯然，短期內市場存在一些問題。但就我們而言，第四季度的訂單情況良好，而且積壓訂單也達到了我們之前所說的創紀錄水平，這主要歸功於我們領先的產品領域，這些領域推動了重大的技術變革。我們的首要任務是提高產量以滿足客戶需求。

We're in a strong financial position to continue to develop our broad portfolio of technology and to drive the critical inflections and to support, eventually, a $1 trillion semiconductor market. I hope we get to see many of you at the upcoming Credit Suisse and Wells Fargo conferences. In the meantime, we hope you enjoy a safe and happy Thanksgiving. Thank you. Mike, let's close it up.

我們的財務狀況強勁，能夠繼續發展我們廣泛的技術組合，推動關鍵的轉折點，並最終支撐價值1兆美元的半導體市場。希望在即將舉行的瑞信和富國銀行會議上見到各位。同時，祝大家感恩節平安快樂。謝謝。麥克，我們結束今天的分享吧。

Okay. Great, Brice. So we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 Pacific Time, and we would like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。太好了，布萊斯。我們想感謝大家今天的參與。本次電話會議的重播將於太平洋時間下午5點在我們的網站上發布。感謝大家對應用材料的持續關注。