應用材料 (AMAT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加應用材料公司的收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好，感謝您參加應用材料公司 2022 財年第四季度的收益電話會議。加入我的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官加里·迪克森 (Gary Dickerson)；和我們的首席財務官 Brice Hill。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 和 8-K 表格中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com. Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement.

今天的電話會議還包括非 GAAP 財務措施。在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益材料中可以找到與 GAAP 措施的調節，這些材料可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的 IR 頁面上找到。在我們開始之前，我有一個日曆公告。

Applied plans to hold an eBeam technology and new product webcast on Wednesday, December 14, at 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time. Please stay tuned for an invitation to join our presenter, Keith Wells, who is Group Vice President and General Manager of our Imaging and Process Control Group. And with that introduction, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

Applied 計劃於太平洋時間 12 月 14 日星期三上午 9 點舉行 eBeam 技術和新產品網絡廣播。請繼續關注我們的主持人 Keith Wells 的邀請，他是我們成像和過程控制集團的集團副總裁兼總經理。有了這個介紹，我想把電話轉給加里迪克森。

Thank you, Mike. Applied Materials delivered a strong finish to our fiscal year with record quarterly performance. Throughout 2022, the company has demonstrated solid execution while navigating COVID-related restrictions, supply chain shortages and a challenging geopolitical and macroeconomic environment.

謝謝你，邁克。應用材料公司以創紀錄的季度業績為我們的財政年度畫上了圓滿的句號。在整個 2022 年，該公司在應對與 COVID 相關的限制、供應鏈短缺以及充滿挑戰的地緣政治和宏觀經濟環境時表現出了穩健的執行力。

I would like to recognize the hard work and commitment of our global team and our suppliers who are doing everything possible to meet our customers' needs. As this is our year-end call, I'll begin my prepared remarks with a quick review of our performance and progress over the past 12 months. I'll then give our latest outlook for 2023 before describing our longer-term growth thesis for the industry and Applied.

我要感謝我們的全球團隊和供應商的辛勤工作和承諾，他們竭盡全力滿足客戶的需求。由於這是我們的年終電話會議，我將首先快速回顧過去 12 個月的業績和進展，開始我準備好的發言。然後我將給出我們對 2023 年的最新展望，然後再描述我們對行業和應用的長期增長論點。

After that, Brice will provide more color on our financial performance and key areas of operational focus. Like many others in the technology sector, our performance and priorities in 2022 have been shaped by an unprecedented set of challenges. Our top priority has been mitigating supply chain constraints that prevented us from fully meeting customer demand.

之後，Brice 將對我們的財務業績和運營重點的關鍵領域提供更多色彩。與技術領域的許多其他人一樣，我們在 2022 年的表現和優先事項受到了一系列前所未有的挑戰的影響。我們的首要任務是緩解供應鏈限制，這些限制使我們無法完全滿足客戶需求。

In Q4, we made incremental progress, and we expect to continue closing supply gaps over the next few quarters. As well as finding creative short-term solutions, our team has been addressing root causes and building a more resilient, scalable supply chain and stronger strategic relationships with our suppliers. In addition, we are strengthening our own manufacturing, logistics and supply chain management.

在第四季度，我們取得了漸進的進展，我們預計將在未來幾個季度繼續縮小供應缺口。除了尋找創造性的短期解決方案外，我們的團隊還一直在解決根本原因，並與我們的供應商建立更具彈性、可擴展性的供應鏈以及更牢固的戰略關係。此外，我們正在加強我們自己的製造、物流和供應鏈管理。

While I'm pleased with the recent improvements in supply chain performance, we are still supply chain limited across a number of key product lines and our backlog grew in Q4. The biggest supply constraints are in our metal deposition business, where customer demand is very strong.

雖然我對最近供應鏈績效的改善感到滿意，但我們的許多關鍵產品線的供應鏈仍然受到限制，我們的積壓訂單在第四季度有所增加。最大的供應限制是我們的金屬沉積業務，客戶需求非常強勁。

This is our largest business unit and where we have highly differentiated solutions for advanced foundry/logic and DRAM. The market for these products, which enable next-generation wiring, is expanding considerably. In addition to supply shortages, we're also navigating a difficult geopolitical environment as reflected in the new export control regulations enacted by the U.S. government on October 7.

這是我們最大的業務部門，我們擁有高度差異化的先進代工/邏輯和 DRAM 解決方案。這些使下一代佈線成為可能的產品的市場正在顯著擴大。除了供應短缺之外，我們還在應對困難的地緣政治環境，這反映在美國政府 10 月 7 日頒布的新出口管制條例中。

These new rules are complex and cover a broad range of semiconductor technology that includes wafer fabrication equipment and related parts and services. We have taken all the necessary actions to comply with these new rules, including suspending shipments and support where required.

這些新規則很複雜，涵蓋範圍廣泛的半導體技術，包括晶圓製造設備和相關零件和服務。我們已採取所有必要措施來遵守這些新規則，包括在需要時暫停發貨和支持。

We estimate that the unmitigated impact to our fiscal 2023 revenues could be up to $2.5 billion. We believe the actual impact can be reduced to $1.5 billion to $2 billion. This will depend in part on how quickly the government provides licenses and approvals as well as how impacted companies refocus their investments.

我們估計，對我們 2023 財年收入的未減輕影響可能高達 25 億美元。我們認為實際影響可以減少到 15 億至 20 億美元。這在一定程度上取決於政府提供許可和批准的速度，以及受影響的公司如何重新調整投資重點。

We are also mindful of the macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and softening consumer demand. To offset the inflationary cost increases we are facing, we are driving multiple initiatives that include reengineering our products and implementing price adjustments.

我們還注意到宏觀經濟的逆風，包括通貨膨脹和消費者需求疲軟。為了抵消我們面臨的通貨膨脹成本增加，我們正在推動多項舉措，包括重新設計我們的產品和實施價格調整。

While it's too early to forecast 2023 with any precision, I can describe what we're currently seeing in the market and hearing from our customers. Starting with memory, spending is expected to be down year-on-year as weakness in consumer electronics and PCs prompts some customers to defer capacity additions.

雖然現在準確預測 2023 年還為時過早，但我可以描述一下我們目前在市場上看到的情況以及從客戶那裡聽到的情況。從內存開始，由於消費電子產品和 PC 的疲軟促使一些客戶推遲增加產能，預計支出將同比下降。

In leading-edge foundry/logic, demand looks strong, with customers racing for leadership and driving major technology inflections that determine their relative competitive positions. In ICAPS, chips for the IoT, communications, auto, power and sensor markets, demand is mixed.

在前沿代工/邏輯領域，需求看起來很強勁，客戶競相爭奪領導地位並推動決定其相對競爭地位的重大技術轉變。在 ICAPS 中，物聯網、通信、汽車、電力和傳感器市場的芯片需求喜憂參半。

Consumer-driven markets are clearly softer, while the automotive, industrial and power markets remain robust. Those investments are underpinned by large inflections, including the transition to electric vehicles, accelerated adoption of industrial automation and growing demand for renewable energy solutions, especially in Europe.

消費者驅動的市場明顯疲軟，而汽車、工業和電力市場依然強勁。這些投資受到重大變化的支撐，包括向電動汽車的過渡、工業自動化的加速採用以及對可再生能源解決方案不斷增長的需求，尤其是在歐洲。

While all of this adds up to an expected pullback in overall wafer fab equipment spending next year, we believe that Applied's business will be more resilient than the underlying market for 3 key reasons: First, we have a significant backlog, the highest in our history, measured on both an absolute and percentage of revenue basis; second, demand for some of our most differentiated product lines where we have uniquely enabling technology remains much higher than our capacity to fulfill that demand; and third, our service business is positioned for steady growth with an increasingly large portion of this business being converted to subscriptions.

雖然所有這些加起來預計明年整體晶圓廠設備支出將出現回落，但我們認為 Applied 的業務將比基礎市場更具彈性，原因有 3 個：首先，我們有大量積壓，這是我們歷史上最高的, 以收入的絕對值和百分比來衡量；其次，對我們擁有獨特支持技術的一些最具差異化的產品線的需求仍然遠遠高於我們滿足該需求的能力；第三，我們的服務業務定位於穩步增長，該業務中越來越多的部分正在轉換為訂閱。

Over the past 12 months, our installed base of systems grew 8% and the number of tools under comprehensive long-term service contracts grew 16%. The renewal rate for these agreements is well over 90%, which demonstrates the value customers see in our subscription services. Looking further ahead, our long-term growth thesis for the industry and Applied Materials has not changed.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們的系統安裝基數增長了 8%，長期服務合同下的工具數量增長了 16%。這些協議的續訂率遠遠超過 90%，這證明了客戶在我們的訂閱服務中看到的價值。展望未來，我們對行業和應用材料的長期增長論點沒有改變。

Semiconductors are the foundation of digital transformation that will touch almost every sector of the economy over the coming years. This puts the semiconductor industry on a path to a $1 trillion market by the end of the decade. And while every year will not be an up year, the overall trajectory is clear.

半導體是數字化轉型的基礎，在未來幾年將觸及幾乎所有經濟部門。這將使半導體行業在本十年末邁向 1 萬億美元的市場。雖然每年都不會是上漲的一年，但總體軌跡是明確的。

We also like where Applied Materials plays within the ecosystem. As technology complexity is increasing, we expect equipment intensity to remain at today's levels or rise further. This means wafer fab equipment is likely to grow faster than the overall semiconductor market.

我們也喜歡 Applied Materials 在生態系統中發揮的作用。隨著技術複雜性的增加，我們預計設備強度將保持在今天的水平或進一步上升。這意味著晶圓廠設備的增長速度可能快於整個半導體市場。

Within equipment spending, major technology inflections are enabled by materials engineering, shifting more dollars to Applied's available markets over time. We think about the industry's future road map in terms of power, performance, area cost and time to market.

在設備支出中，材料工程實現了重大技術轉變，隨著時間的推移，更多的資金轉移到 Applied 的可用市場。我們從功耗、性能、面積成本和上市時間等方面考慮行業的未來路線圖。

The PPACt playbook has 5 pillars: new architectures, new 3D structures, new materials, new ways to shrink and advanced packaging, with each pillar made up of multiple technology inflections. For example, new 3D structures like gate-all-around transistors and backside power distribution networks are materials engineering enabled inflections that grow Applied's total available market.

PPACt 劇本有 5 個支柱：新架構、新 3D 結構、新材料、新收縮方法和先進封裝，每個支柱都由多種技術變化組成。例如，新的 3D 結構，如環柵晶體管和背面配電網絡，是材料工程支持的變化，可以擴大 Applied 的總可用市場。

As I referenced earlier, wiring is a key bottleneck for chip performance and power at advanced nodes. And this is driving significant innovation in new materials. Between the 7- and 3-nanometer node, contact metallization steps are growing more than 50% and our total available market is expanding almost 80%.

正如我之前提到的，佈線是高級節點芯片性能和功耗的關鍵瓶頸。這正在推動新材料的重大創新。在 7 納米和 3 納米節點之間，接觸金屬化步驟增長了 50% 以上，我們的總可用市場擴大了近 80%。

For interconnect layers, process steps are being added even faster, and we expect our revenue opportunity to approximately triple through these node transitions. Advanced packaging represents a new era for integrated circuit design that opens major new vectors of innovation for chip designers.

對於互連層，工藝步驟的添加速度更快，我們預計通過這些節點轉換我們的收入機會將增加大約三倍。先進封裝代表了集成電路設計的新紀元，為芯片設計人員打開了主要的新創新載體。

Advanced packaging is also enabled by new materials engineering solutions. Although the industry is still in the early stages of adoption, we have already grown our packaging equipment business to nearly $1 billion. Our Process Diagnostics and Controls business also has broad exposure to these inflections and delivered significant growth in 2022. Our progress and opportunities in eBeam will be the focus of our December technology briefing.

新材料工程解決方案也支持先進封裝。儘管該行業仍處於採用的早期階段，但我們的包裝設備業務已經增長到近 10 億美元。我們的過程診斷和控制業務也廣泛受到這些變化的影響，並在 2022 年實現了顯著增長。我們在 eBeam 方面的進展和機遇將成為我們 12 月技術簡報的重點。

Given our positive long-term view of the semiconductor market, the outsized opportunities for Applied Materials within the market and favorable global government incentives, we are making investments in R&D and infrastructure to support industry growth and position the company for future success.

鑑於我們對半導體市場的長期積極看法、應用材料公司在市場上的巨大機遇以及全球政府的有利激勵措施，我們正在對研發和基礎設施進行投資，以支持行業增長並為公司未來的成功做好準備。

We will provide more details about our specific plans in the coming months. At the same time, with the current macroeconomic conditions, we are carefully managing discretionary spending and limiting hiring to only strategic positions. Before I hand the call over to Brice, I'll quickly summarize.

我們將在未來幾個月提供有關我們具體計劃的更多詳細信息。與此同時，在當前的宏觀經濟條件下，我們正在謹慎管理可自由支配的支出，並將招聘限制在戰略職位上。在我將電話轉交給 Brice 之前，我將快速總結一下。

Applied Materials ended the year strong with record performance. In the past quarter, we made incremental progress, overcoming the supply challenges that have constrained our performance in fiscal 2022. However, there is still work to do and our backlog continues to grow. We expect 2023 to be a down year for wafer fab equipment spending, but we believe that Applied's business will be more resilient, thanks to our large backlog, growing service business and strong customer demand for our leadership products that enable key technology inflections.

應用材料公司以創紀錄的業績結束了這一年。在上個季度，我們取得了漸進式進展，克服了限制我們 2022 財年業績的供應挑戰。但是，仍有工作要做，我們的積壓訂單繼續增加。我們預計 2023 年將是晶圓廠設備支出下降的一年，但我們相信 Applied 的業務將更具彈性，這要歸功於我們大量的積壓訂單、不斷增長的服務業務以及客戶對我們能夠實現關鍵技術轉變的領先產品的強勁需求。

Longer-term secular trends create opportunities for Applied to outgrow the semiconductor market by enabling the PPACt road map with our differentiated portfolio of materials engineering solutions. We are making strategic investments for the future while slowing spending growth in the near term. Now I'll hand over to Brice.

長期趨勢為 Applied 創造了超越半導體市場的機會，通過我們差異化的材料工程解決方案組合實現 PPACt 路線圖。我們正在為未來進行戰略投資，同時在近期放慢支出增長。現在我將交給 Brice。

Thank you, Gary. I'd like to start by thanking our team and our supply chain partners for helping to further increase our output for our customers. On today's call, I'll summarize our results for the fiscal year and Q4 as well as provide our guidance for Q1.

謝謝你，加里。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊和我們的供應鏈合作夥伴幫助我們為客戶進一步增加產量。在今天的電話會議上，我將總結本財年和第四季度的業績，並為第一季度提供指導。

I'll also discuss the impact of recent U.S. export regulations on our revenue and gross margin. Before going into the results, I'd like to make 3 points. First, despite a weaker customer demand outlook, we generated strong orders in Q4 and ended the year with record backlog, particularly in some of our leadership product areas.

我還將討論最近美國出口法規對我們的收入和毛利率的影響。在進入結果之前，我想提出 3 點。首先，儘管客戶需求前景疲軟，但我們在第四季度產生了強勁的訂單，並以創紀錄的積壓結束了這一年，特別是在我們的一些領先產品領域。

Combined with the resiliency of our AGS business, the strong backlog puts us in a good position to offset some of the market weakness expected next year. Second, we have not changed our view of a $1 trillion semiconductor market by 2030 with a high single-digit CAGR for semiconductors and similar or faster growth for equipment due to added process complexity.

結合我們 AGS 業務的彈性，大量積壓使我們處於有利地位，可以抵消明年預期的部分市場疲軟。其次，我們沒有改變對到 2030 年 1 萬億美元的半導體市場的看法，半導體市場的複合年增長率將達到高個位數，並且由於工藝複雜性增加，設備的增長速度將達到類似或更快。

We grew our headcount in R&D spending significantly in 2022 to develop new leadership products and further expand our broad portfolio. While we are slowing our spending growth in the current environment, we remain committed to research and development, enabling critical inflections that support our customers' road maps.

2022 年，我們顯著增加了研發支出的人數，以開發新的領先產品並進一步擴大我們廣泛的產品組合。雖然我們在當前環境下放慢支出增長，但我們仍致力於研發，實現支持客戶路線圖的關鍵變化。

And third, we returned nearly [$7 billion] to shareholders this past year, including buybacks equivalent to 6% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the period. With record demand and financial results in 2022, a strong growth opportunity through 2030 and our broad and unique portfolio of systems and services, we're confident in our financial position and our future.

第三，我們在過去一年向股東返還了近 [70 億美元]，包括回購相當於期初已發行股票的 6%。憑藉 2022 年創紀錄的需求和財務業績、到 2030 年的強勁增長機會以及我們廣泛而獨特的系統和服務組合，我們對我們的財務狀況和未來充滿信心。

Next, I'll summarize our fiscal year results. Although supply chain constraints impacted our output all year, we delivered record annual revenue and EPS. On a year-over-year basis, revenue increased nearly 12% to $25.8 billion. Non-GAAP gross margin decreased by around 90 basis points to 46.6%. Non-GAAP operating profit grew by over 7% to $7.86 billion.

接下來，我將總結我們的財年業績。儘管供應鏈限制影響了我們全年的產出，但我們實現了創紀錄的年收入和每股收益。與去年同期相比，收入增長近 12% 至 258 億美元。非美國通用會計準則毛利率下降約 90 個基點至 46.6%。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤增長超過 7%，達到 78.6 億美元。

Non-GAAP operating margin decreased by 120 basis points to 30.5%. And non-GAAP EPS increased nearly 13% to $7.70. We generated about $5.4 billion in operating cash flow this past year and over $4.6 billion in free cash flow. We returned 151% of free cash flow to shareholders, including $873 million in dividends and $6.1 billion in share repurchases.

非 GAAP 營業利潤率下降 120 個基點至 30.5%。非 GAAP 每股收益增長近 13% 至 7.70 美元。去年，我們產生了約 54 億美元的運營現金流和超過 46 億美元的自由現金流。我們向股東返還了 151% 的自由現金流，包括 8.73 億美元的股息和 61 億美元的股票回購。

Our cash returns for the past 3 years were equivalent to over 100% of free cash flow. In the year, demand for our products and services was very strong with record annual bookings in semi systems and AGS. On a year-over-year basis, our total ending backlog increased 62% to $19 billion.

我們過去 3 年的現金回報相當於自由現金流的 100% 以上。這一年，對我們的產品和服務的需求非常強勁，半系統和 AGS 的年度預訂量創下歷史新高。與去年同期相比，我們的期末積壓訂單總額增加了 62%，達到 190 億美元。

Our semi systems backlog increased 90% to nearly $12.7 billion. We expect to reduce our semi systems backlog as supply chain performance improves. Our AGS backlog increased 30% to over $5.6 billion. The strong AGS backlog reflects a large increase in long-term service agreements, which gives us confidence in the continued growth of this business.

我們的半系統積壓訂單增加了 90%，達到近 127 億美元。隨著供應鏈績效的提高，我們希望減少我們的半系統積壓。我們的 AGS 積壓訂單增加了 30%，超過 56 億美元。強勁的 AGS 積壓反映了長期服務協議的大量增加，這讓我們對這項業務的持續增長充滿信心。

Moving to our Q4 results. We delivered record quarterly net sales of nearly $6.75 billion and record non-GAAP EPS of $2.03. Non-GAAP gross margin declined 20 basis points sequentially to 46%. And non-GAAP OpEx grew 3.5% sequentially to nearly $1.1 billion, with most of the increase in R&D.

轉到我們的第四季度結果。我們實現了近 67.5 億美元的創紀錄季度淨銷售額和 2.03 美元的創紀錄非 GAAP 每股收益。非 GAAP 毛利率連續下降 20 個基點至 46%。非 GAAP 運營支出環比增長 3.5% 至近 11 億美元，其中大部分增長來自研發。

Turning to the segments. Semi systems revenue grew more than 6% sequentially to $5.04 billion. Segment non-GAAP operating margin increased 80 basis points sequentially to 36.9%. AGS revenue was flat quarter-over-quarter at $1.42 billion. Segment non-GAAP operating margin declined to 28.3%.

轉向細分市場。半導體系統收入環比增長超過 6% 至 50.4 億美元。該部門非 GAAP 營業利潤率環比增長 80 個基點至 36.9%。 AGS 收入環比持平，為 14.2 億美元。部門非 GAAP 營業利潤率下降至 28.3%。

AGS key performance indicators continue to be positive with strong year-over-year growth in installed base systems, service intensity and subscription agreements. As a result, AGS continues to grow faster than the pace needed to achieve our long-term revenue targets.

AGS 關鍵績效指標繼續保持積極，安裝基礎系統、服務強度和訂閱協議同比增長強勁。因此，AGS 的增長速度繼續快於實現我們長期收入目標所需的速度。

Moving on to Display. Revenue declined as expected to $251 million. Segment non-GAAP operating margin also declined to 13.5%. Turning to our cash flows. We generated $857 million in operating cash flow during the quarter, which was 13% of revenue. We returned over $1.72 billion to shareholders, including $223 million in dividends and $1.5 billion in buybacks.

繼續展示。收入如預期下降至 2.51 億美元。部門非 GAAP 營業利潤率也下降至 13.5%。轉向我們的現金流。本季度我們產生了 8.57 億美元的運營現金流，佔收入的 13%。我們向股東返還了超過 17.2 億美元，其中包括 2.23 億美元的股息和 15 億美元的回購。

We repurchased 17 million shares at an average price of $88.05. Next, I'll discuss the impact of the new U.S. export regulations to Applied Materials. We currently expect that the unmitigated revenue impact of the new rules could be up to $2.5 billion in fiscal 2023. We continue to work through the regulatory requirements, including seeking licenses and approvals where appropriate.

我們以平均 88.05 美元的價格回購了 1700 萬股股票。接下來，我將討論美國新出口法規對應用材料公司的影響。我們目前預計，到 2023 財年，新規則對收入的未減輕影響可能高達 25 億美元。我們將繼續努力滿足監管要求，包括在適當的情況下尋求許可和批准。

We hope to reduce the revenue impact by between $500 million and $1 billion to a net impact of $1.5 billion to $2 billion. We also expect the rules to reduce our non-GAAP gross margin by up to 1 percentage point. While this creates a headwind to meeting our gross margin targets for 2024, we remain committed to our goals and believe we can achieve and exceed them over time.

我們希望將收入影響減少 5 億至 10 億美元，淨影響為 15 億至 20 億美元。我們還預計這些規則會將我們的非 GAAP 毛利率降低多達 1 個百分點。儘管這對實現我們 2024 年的毛利率目標造成了不利影響，但我們仍然致力於實現我們的目標，並相信我們能夠隨著時間的推移實現並超越這些目標。

In Q4, the new rules reduced our semi systems and AGS revenue by approximately $280 million, which is in the range of our expectation on October 12. Inventory charges in Q4 were lower than our preliminary assessment. In Q1, we expect the new rules to reduce semi systems and AGS revenue by approximately $490 million combined and reduce our gross margin by around 1 percentage point, both on an unmitigated basis.

在第四季度，新規則使我們的半系統和 AGS 收入減少了約 2.8 億美元，這在我們 10 月 12 日的預期範圍內。第四季度的庫存費用低於我們的初步評估。在第一季度，我們預計新規則將使半導體系統和 AGS 收入總計減少約 4.9 億美元，並將我們的毛利率降低約 1 個百分點，兩者均在不減反增的基礎上。

Now I'll share our guidance for Q1. We expect revenue to be $6.7 billion, plus or minus $400 million, and we expect non-GAAP EPS of $1.93, plus or minus $0.18. Within this outlook, we expect semi systems revenue to be about $5.15 billion, which is up nearly 13% year-over-year.

現在我將分享我們對第一季度的指導。我們預計收入為 67 億美元，上下浮動 4 億美元，我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.93 美元，上下浮動 0.18 美元。在此前景下，我們預計半導體系統收入約為 51.5 億美元，同比增長近 13%。

We expect AGS revenue to be about $1.33 billion, which is slightly up year-over-year. Display revenue should be around $170 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 46.1% and we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be $1.16 billion. We are modeling a tax rate of 13%, which is up from 11.8% last year, primarily due to mandatory capitalization of R&D expenses effective in our new fiscal year.

我們預計 AGS 收入約為 13.3 億美元，同比略有增長。顯示器收入應該在 1.7 億美元左右。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 46.1%，我們預計非 GAAP 運營費用為 11.6 億美元。我們正在模擬 13% 的稅率，高於去年的 11.8%，這主要是由於我們新財政年度生效的研發費用強制資本化。

Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to summarize our company's position in the current environment. We have record backlog, notably in the highly enabling technologies for next-generation nodes. Our supply chain and manufacturing output are incrementally improving.

在我們開始問答之前，我想總結一下我們公司在當前環境中的立場。我們有創紀錄的積壓，特別是在下一代節點的高度支持技術方面。我們的供應鍊和製造產出正在逐步改善。

We expect our services business will continue to grow and generate strong recurring revenue and free cash flow. And the longer-term growth outlook for the semiconductor industry remains strong. Applied is in a great position to invest in future growth and deliver strong profitability, free cash flow and shareholder returns. Now Mike, please begin the Q&A.

我們預計我們的服務業務將繼續增長並產生強勁的經常性收入和自由現金流。半導體行業的長期增長前景依然強勁。應用材料公司處於投資未來增長並提供強勁盈利能力、自由現金流和股東回報的有利位置。現在邁克，請開始問答。

Thanks, Brice. To help us reach as many people as we can, please ask just one question on today's call. If you have another question, please requeue and we'll do our best to come back to you later in the session. Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，布萊斯。為了幫助我們接觸到盡可能多的人，請在今天的電話會議上只問一個問題。如果您有其他問題，請重新排隊，我們將盡最大努力在會議後期回复您。接線員，讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

我們的第一個問題來自 C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI。

Yes. I was hoping to clarify one thing first on China. And really, the question is, what changed between October 12 with your press release and then October 30, where it looks like there really wasn't much of an impact at all? And then my -- I guess, real question is, as you think about calendar '23 WFE, it sounds like companies are providing kind of a top-down view that things for WFE are -- look weak and declining.

是的。我希望首先就中國澄清一件事。實際上，問題是，從 10 月 12 日的新聞稿到 10 月 30 日之間發生了什麼變化，看起來真的沒有太大影響？然後我 - 我想，真正的問題是，當你考慮日曆 '23 WFE 時，聽起來公司正在提供一種自上而下的觀點，即 WFE 的情況 - 看起來很弱並且正在下降。

However, every company bottoms up, based on deferred revenues and backlogs are much more optimistic on the outlook. So can you kind of talk through the moving parts there? And what kind of range or outcome you see today for year-over-year silicon declines in calendar '23?

然而，基於遞延收入和積壓訂單，每家公司都自下而上地對前景樂觀得多。那麼你能談談那裡的活動部件嗎？您今天看到 23 年日曆年矽同比下降的範圍或結果是什麼？

Sure. C.J., it's Brice. I'll start on this one. So relative to the preannouncement that we did, we talked about a $400 million impact, plus or minus $150 million for the China trade change. And then as we work through it, that impact ended up being less around $280 million.

當然。 C.J.，是布萊斯。我將從這個開始。因此，相對於我們所做的預先公告，我們談到了 4 億美元的影響，加上或減去 1.5 億美元的中國貿易變化。然後，隨著我們的努力，這種影響最終減少了大約 2.8 億美元。

And it's just estimating the transactional elements at the end of the quarter. It was an initial element -- estimate, so we did a little bit better from that perspective. The other thing that really happened was execution in the end of the quarter was almost flawless from a logistics perspective.

它只是估計本季度末的交易要素。這是一個初始元素 - 估計，所以從這個角度來看我們做得更好一些。真正發生的另一件事是，從物流的角度來看，本季度末的執行幾乎完美無缺。

We got more supply chain parts in at the end of the quarter. And so over $200 million of good news from an execution and delivery perspective, finishing product and completions in the field. So it was really those 2 things. It was little bit better than our initial estimate and execution was excellent in the last couple of weeks of the quarter.

我們在本季度末獲得了更多的供應鏈部件。因此，從執行和交付的角度來看，在現場完成產品和完工方面，有超過 2 億美元的好消息。所以這真的是這兩件事。這比我們最初的估計要好一點，並且在本季度的最後幾週執行得非常好。

And then on '23 -- the WFE question for '23, we think that it's preliminary. It's too early to give an estimate of '23. So what we're trying to share is what we're seeing in our order patterns and in our business for Q1 and Q2. We talked about -- in the script, how in Q1 -- or in our bookings for Q4, they were really solid. We did see pushouts. We did see weakness in the memory business, but our backlog has grown to a record level of backlog.

然後在 23 年——23 年的 WFE 問題，我們認為這是初步的。現在估計 23 年還為時過早。因此，我們試圖分享的是我們在第一季度和第二季度的訂單模式以及我們的業務中看到的情況。我們談到了——在劇本中，在第一季度——或者在我們對第四季度的預訂中，它們真的很可靠。我們確實看到了推出。我們確實看到了內存業務的疲軟，但我們的積壓已經增長到創紀錄的積壓水平。

So when we think about our Q1 and Q2, we're still supply constrained. We still have a number of different equipment lines that we have significant backlog. We're trying to catch up to customer orders. And so the signals to us really are that we have to work on supply chain, work on improving our output and work on catching up with our customers. So beyond that, we're just not able to make a call yet on WFE for '23.

因此，當我們考慮第一季度和第二季度時，我們仍然受到供應限制。我們仍然有許多不同的設備線，我們有大量積壓。我們正在努力趕上客戶訂單。因此，給我們的信號實際上是我們必須在供應鏈上努力，努力提高我們的產量並努力趕上我們的客戶。所以除此之外，我們還不能在 WFE 上為 '23 打電話。

Yes. C.J., this is Gary. As Brice said, the -- we can certainly give a perspective on our business. We're not going to guide on overall WFE for '23. But we're in a very strong position. If you look at the kind of profile of the business, it's more weighted towards foundry/logic versus memory. And we have some very strong products where we have significant backlog, and we're still working to close the supply-demand gaps in those areas.

是的。 C.J.，這是加里。正如布賴斯所說，我們當然可以對我們的業務給出一個看法。我們不會為 23 年的整體 WFE 提供指導。但我們處於非常有利的地位。如果您查看業務概況，就會發現它更傾向於代工/邏輯而不是內存。我們有一些非常強大的產品，我們積壓了大量產品，我們仍在努力縮小這些領域的供需缺口。

So from Applied's standpoint, as you know, it's all about the race for power and performance for all of our customers, and we're really well positioned with leading products and those big inflections. And again, our #1 focus is on closing the supply chain gaps.

因此，從 Applied 的角度來看，正如您所知，這一切都是關於我們所有客戶的功率和性能競賽，我們在領先產品和那些大的變化方面確實處於有利地位。同樣，我們的第一重點是縮小供應鏈差距。

And our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stacy Rasgon 與 Bernstein 的對話。

I wanted to ask you about the mitigated versus unmitigated impact from China. So you gave the numbers, $2.5 billion, and hoping to bring that down to like $1.5 billion. But I gathered a big element of that was getting licenses. Where do you expect those licenses to be gotten? Is that only to the multinational? Do you guys expect licenses to be given to some of the Chinese folks? I mean, how -- how could that happen? What is the mechanism by which you come in at the unmitigated number versus the -- come in at the mitigated number versus the unmitigated number?

我想問你關於來自中國的減輕影響和未減輕影響的問題。所以你給出了 25 億美元的數字，並希望將其降低到 15 億美元左右。但我收集到的一個重要因素是獲得許可證。您希望從哪裡獲得這些許可證？只針對跨國公司嗎？你們希望向一些中國人發放許可證嗎？我的意思是，這怎麼可能發生？您進入未緩解數量與 - 進入緩解數量與未緩解數量的機制是什麼？

Stacy, it's Brice. Yes, and it's important probably to say that this unmitigated versus mitigated, it has everything to do with the impact to the China shipments and Chinese customers. In other words, it's not referring to whether we can ship a product we are making for those customers to non-China customers.

斯泰西，是布萊斯。是的，很重要的一點可能是，這種未緩解與緩解的對比，它與對中國出貨量和中國客戶的影響息息相關。換句話說，這不是指我們是否可以將我們為這些客戶生產的產品運送給非中國客戶。

So the unmitigated, the way we calculated this is we looked at the orders that we have for the affected customers, and that's what you see as the total, $2.5 billion. In order to mitigate that...

因此，毫無疑問，我們計算的方式是查看受影響客戶的訂單，這就是您所看到的總額，25 億美元。為了減輕這種...

Does that include multinationals, too?

這也包括跨國公司嗎？

Say again.

再說一遍。

I'm sorry. Does that include multinationals, too? Or is that just the local Chinese guys (inaudible)?

對不起。這也包括跨國公司嗎？或者只是當地的中國人（聽不清）？

It does not. It does not.

它不是。它不是。

So just (inaudible)?

所以只是（聽不清）？

Yes. And so the way we looked at that, there are some customers that we're trying to clarify that we can apply for licenses for, or we can get authorizations for once they establish that their technology is within the guidelines. So we have a process to do that. And on the other side, we expect some customers may decide to change their plan or change their technology, so it does not go above the threshold that's affected by the rules at this point.

是的。因此，我們看待這一點的方式是，我們正在努力澄清一些客戶，我們可以申請許可證，或者一旦他們確定他們的技術符合指南，我們就可以獲得授權。所以我們有一個流程來做到這一點。另一方面，我們預計一些客戶可能會決定改變他們的計劃或改變他們的技術，所以它不會超過此時受規則影響的門檻。

So it's really those 2 elements that we'll be able to clarify that some customers were able to ship with or ship to or some customers changing their plans on the technology side that would allow them to qualify for shipments.

因此，我們真正能夠澄清的是這兩個要素，一些客戶能夠運送或運送到或一些客戶在技術方面改變他們的計劃，這將使他們有資格發貨。

What would that mean though? Would that suck up like supply that would have ordinarily gotten built by somebody else though? Because otherwise, you're just adding like lagging-edge supply into a vacuum, essentially. How do we think about like the second order effects here?

那是什麼意思呢？不過，這會像通常由其他人建造的供應一樣吸走嗎？因為否則，您基本上只是將落後的供應添加到真空中。我們如何看待這裡的二階效應？

Yes. We don't think so. We expect all that equipment to be utilized. And so if that equipment has moved to a different use, then we expect it will be backfilled somewhere else for its original demand purpose, if that makes sense.

是的。我們不這麼認為。我們希望所有這些設備都能得到利用。因此，如果該設備已轉移到不同的用途，那麼我們預計它將在其他地方回填以滿足其最初的需求目的，如果這有意義的話。

Got it. And I guess just one last one. Right now, I guess, you're running at the unmitigated level. When do you think it will be at the mitigated level? Like, how likely do you think it will be -- you end up at the mitigated level at some point?

知道了。我想只有最後一個。現在，我猜，你正在以絕對水平運行。您認為什麼時候會達到緩解水平？就像，你認為它有多大可能 - 你最終會在某個時候達到緩解水平？

It's hard to say. It's a process. You can imagine there's a large number of people working on this. In fact, the whole industry is working on this. So it's job 2 at this point behind increasing output. So I would say it's still a good estimate today, and we're -- we'll be working throughout the year on improving the number of customers and plants that we can ship to.

這很難說。這是一個過程。你可以想像有很多人在做這件事。事實上，整個行業都在為此努力。所以在這一點上，它是工作 2，落後於增加產出。所以我想說今天這仍然是一個很好的估計，而且我們 - 我們將在全年努力提高我們可以運送到的客戶和工廠的數量。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I just wanted to clarify. I thought, Brice, you said somewhere that you provided some look for Q2. I don't think I [caught] that. And then several of your memory customers that said that their spending could be down over 50% next year. Recently, Micron said it could be down even more than that.

我只是想澄清一下。我想，Brice，你在某個地方說過你為 Q2 提供了一些外觀。我不認為我[抓住了]那個。然後您的一些內存客戶表示他們明年的支出可能會下降 50% 以上。最近，美光錶示它的跌幅可能不止於此。

Have you noticed almost 50% cancellation of orders from them? Because I'm just trying to reconcile your commentary that sounds outside of China, of course, more benign and more supportive versus just the very horrific guidance that your memory customers are providing.

您是否注意到他們取消了近 50% 的訂單？因為我只是想調和你在中國以外的評論，當然，與你的內存客戶提供的非常可怕的指導相比，更溫和、更支持。

I understand you're less exposed to memory versus foundry/logic, but still, it's a reasonable size exposure. So I'm curious, has that 50% cut in CapEx translated to any reduction in your backlog or any change in your thinking about memory for next year?

我知道與代工/邏輯相比，您對內存的接觸較少，但仍然是一個合理的規模接觸。所以我很好奇，CapEx 削減 50% 是否轉化為積壓工作的減少或您對明年內存的想法有任何變化？

Okay. Thanks, Vivek. So we're not giving a guide for Q2. We are highlighting the record backlog and the fact that we're constrained and the fact that in several equipment lines, we're behind on customer orders. So we're going to try to increase output.

好的。謝謝，維維克。所以我們沒有提供第二季度的指南。我們強調了創紀錄的積壓和我們受到限制的事實，以及在幾個設備系列中，我們落後於客戶訂單的事實。因此，我們將嘗試增加產量。

And I'd say that comment is true for both Q1 and Q2. So that's as much shaping as we're providing for Q2. On the memory side, just to kind of click back and think about the overall demand environment, we positioned last quarter that we had a significant amount more demand than we have the ability to supply for '23.

而且我會說 Q1 和 Q2 的評論都是正確的。所以這與我們為第二季度提供的一樣多。在內存方面，只是為了點擊一下並考慮整體需求環境，我們上個季度的定位是我們的需求量遠遠超過我們 23 年的供應能力。

What did happen during the course of this quarter is there is a significant amount of pushouts and reductions in that demand. Now you can see the end result. We still had solid bookings in Q4. We still -- we created a record backlog that's now disclosed. So I would say that some of those pushouts and some of those reductions were definitely in the memory space.

本季度期間發生的事情是大量推出和減少需求。現在你可以看到最終結果了。我們在第四季度仍然有穩定的預訂。我們仍然 - 我們創造了現在披露的記錄積壓。所以我想說，其中一些推出和一些減少肯定是在內存空間中。

And I wouldn't -- I'm not going to characterize what percentage it was, but I would say that that's the most affected area in the business in terms of pushouts and reductions for '23.

我不會——我不會描述它的百分比，但我會說，就 23 年的推出和減少而言，這是業務中受影響最大的領域。

So you are seeing a 50% type reduction? I'm just trying to align what we are hearing from those customers versus what you are seeing on the ground in your business.

所以你看到了 50% 的類型減少？我只是想將我們從這些客戶那裡聽到的內容與您在您的業務中看到的內容保持一致。

Yes. Sorry, I can't quantify exactly what it is. I'll just say that, that is what -- it's biased, the reductions were biased in that area.

是的。抱歉，我無法準確量化它是什麼。我只想說，這就是 - 它是有偏見的，該領域的削減是有偏見的。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 Cowen 的對話。

Brice or Gary, I just wanted to find out, you mentioned how lagging edge is still pretty strong, especially auto, analog in China. And I wonder like do you ever think that auto, analog could be the next (inaudible)? But in other words, if memory is going to be down next year, but lagging edge holds up, what is the risk that lagging edge rolls over in 2024 and you have 2 years of lackluster WFE?

Brice 或 Gary，我只是想知道，你提到落後優勢仍然非常強大，尤其是中國的汽車、模擬。我想知道你是否認為汽車、模擬可能是下一個（聽不清）？但換句話說，如果明年內存將下降，但落後優勢保持不變，那麼落後優勢在 2024 年翻滾並且您有 2 年表現不佳的 WFE 的風險是什麼？

Okay. I'll start, maybe Gary wants to say something. We don't have a specific guide for what we call ICAPS, our mature node businesses. What we would say is there was significant growth in 2022. And when we think about all the end markets, we think the end markets are mixed. We know some of the consumer markets and even industrial have seen some weakening.

好的。我要開始了，也許 Gary 想說點什麼。對於我們稱為 ICAPS 的成熟節點業務，我們沒有具體的指南。我們要說的是 2022 年會有顯著增長。當我們考慮所有終端市場時，我們認為終端市場是混合的。我們知道一些消費市場甚至工業市場都出現了一些疲軟。

But on the positive side, automotive and the power market that feeds EV and solar and other areas has been really strong. So for us, this is a critical market. We're continuing to invest and continuing to focus in this area, and we would just highlight to investors that the growth has been very strong.

但從積極的方面來看，為電動汽車和太陽能以及其他領域提供動力的汽車和電力市場一直非常強勁。所以對我們來說，這是一個至關重要的市場。我們將繼續投資並繼續關注這一領域，我們只想向投資者強調增長非常強勁。

Yes. Krish, the other thing I would add is that we're -- we've made a change in our organization more than 3 years ago, forming our ICAPS group. And we have just very, very deep engagements with our customers, both on a technical and a support side of our business. And we have the broadest set of innovative products for ICAPS.

是的。 Krish，我要補充的另一件事是，我們在 3 年多前對我們的組織進行了更改，成立了我們的 ICAPS 小組。我們在業務的技術和支持方面都與客戶進行了非常、非常深入的接觸。我們擁有最廣泛的 ICAPS 創新產品。

If I look at where we're at today, those are some of the areas that -- where we have significant backlog. (inaudible) in FY '23 are very, very strong for us. Those are areas where we have significant demand from customers. And ICAPS is similar in that to the -- all of the rest of our business.

如果我看看我們今天所處的位置，這些就是我們有大量積壓的一些領域。 （聽不清）23 財年對我們來說非常非常強大。這些是我們對客戶有大量需求的領域。 ICAPS 與我們所有其他業務的相似之處在於。

This is always a race for all of these customers relative to power, performance and cost. And ICAPS is really materials enabled. We have a really strong team there. We have a great pipeline of products. I will guarantee you every year will not be up. That's for sure. We're not going to guide '24, but we are in a very good position in ICAPS relative to enabling technology for future inflections.

對於所有這些客戶而言，這始終是一場關於功率、性能和成本的競賽。 ICAPS 確實支持材料。我們那裡有一支非常強大的團隊。我們擁有豐富的產品線。我保證你每年都不會起來。這是肯定的。我們不會指導 '24，但我們在 ICAPS 中處於非常有利的位置，相對於為未來的變化提供支持的技術。

And our next question comes from the line of Mark Lipacis with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Lipacis 與 Jefferies 的合作。

Gary, maybe for you. It seems like the consensus for WFE this year is somewhere in the $65 billion to $75 billion range. And I'm not asking you to give a guidance or an outlook for next year. But I'm wondering in the scenario where that is proven to be too cautious of an outlook for next year, based on the conversations that you have with your customers, would you say that, that would be because lead times are long and customers just -- they don't want to cancel orders or there's new secular drivers, like bigger chips or advanced packaging or trailing-node, like some of the things you've talked about or just competition at the leading-edge is driving people to invest more, enabled by subsidies?

加里，也許適合你。似乎今年 WFE 的共識是在 650 億美元到 750 億美元之間。我並不是要你為明年提供指導或展望。但我想知道，在這種情況下，根據您與客戶的對話，事實證明對明年的前景過於謹慎，您會這麼說嗎，那是因為交貨時間很長，而客戶只是——他們不想取消訂單，或者有新的長期驅動因素，比如更大的芯片或先進的封裝或尾隨節點，比如你談到的一些事情，或者僅僅是前沿領域的競爭正在推動人們投資更多，通過補貼實現？

What are your customers suggesting to you or what -- I mean, your backlog grew even as memory came down, like what do you think are the biggest drivers into next year, regardless of whatever the end number is? And what could surprise on the upside?

您的客戶向您提出了什麼建議，或者是什麼——我的意思是，即使記憶力下降，您的積壓工作也在增加，比如您認為明年最大的驅動因素是什麼，無論最終數字是多少？好的一面是什麼？

Yes, Mark, thanks for the question. So all of our customers in any of these different markets, the technology is moving very, very quickly. So they're all racing against each other for power, performance cost, their relative competitive position.

是的，馬克，謝謝你的提問。因此，我們所有這些不同市場中的所有客戶，技術發展得非常非常快。所以他們都在為權力、性能成本和他們的相對競爭地位而相互競爭。

So certainly, as you mentioned in the leading-edge foundry/logic, there's a tremendous amount of focus there, high-performance computing in a number of those different markets. And again, for Applied, what we've talked about is real strength in enabling new structures that are critical to competitive positions for our customers. Gate-all-around is an incremental $1 billion for Applied for 100,000 wafer starts more than what we're currently capturing with FinFET. We're on path to gain 5 points of share in the transition from FinFET to gate-all-around.

所以當然，正如你在前沿代工/邏輯中提到的那樣，那裡有大量的關注點，許多不同市場的高性能計算。再一次，對於 Applied，我們所談論的是實現對我們客戶的競爭地位至關重要的新結構的真正實力。 Gate-all-around 為 Applied 增加了 10 億美元，用於啟動 100,000 個晶圓，比我們目前使用 FinFET 獲得的多。在從 FinFET 到 gate-all-around 的過渡中，我們正在努力獲得 5 個份額。

Wiring is probably the #1 focus, and I don't know that everyone really understands how important that inflection is for our customers. That's an area where we have tremendous strength. We're enabling a 50% reduction in wiring resistance with integrated platforms that combine many technologies together. So that's another one where Applied is really well positioned. Packaging has grown for Applied to nearly $1 billion, and we have over 50% share in the broad -- in our served market. And we have, by far, the broadest position in advanced packaging, and we're still in the early innings of that inflection. But again, that's all part of this technology race for all of our customers.

佈線可能是第一要務，我不知道每個人是否真正了解這種變化對我們的客戶有多重要。這是我們擁有巨大實力的領域。我們通過將許多技術結合在一起的集成平台使佈線電阻降低了 50%。所以這是應用材料公司真正處於有利地位的另一個地方。 Applied 的包裝已增長到近 10 億美元，我們在廣泛的服務市場中佔有超過 50% 的份額。到目前為止，我們在先進封裝領域擁有最廣泛的地位，我們仍處於這種轉折的早期階段。但同樣，這也是我們所有客戶的技術競賽的一部分。

ICAPS. I mentioned that earlier on the call. Those are also markets where I think it's surprising to people, including you've seen some of our peers talking about ICAPS growth over a longer period of time, there are technology inflections there. And that's, as I mentioned earlier, metal deposition, implant, those are areas where we're very, very -- in very strong enabling positions with our customers.

ICAPS。我早些時候在電話中提到過。這些也是我認為令人驚訝的市場，包括你已經看到我們的一些同行在較長時間內談論 ICAPS 增長，那裡有技術變化。那就是，正如我之前提到的，金屬沉積、植入，這些是我們非常、非常——在我們的客戶中處於非常強大的支持地位的領域。

I think the other thing for Applied, beyond all of these different areas, high-speed DRAM with logic-like structures, all of those big inflections, our PDC business grew, I think, it was 67% in FY '21. We're up around 35% in FY '22. That business is also outperforming, and we think that will continue to outperform as we go forward. So at least from an Applied standpoint, it's really all around those big inflections and how we're positioned for those major inflections. So I don't know if Brice, if you want to add anything?

我認為應用材料公司的另一件事是，除了所有這些不同的領域，具有類似邏輯結構的高速 DRAM，所有這些大的變化，我認為我們的 PDC 業務在 21 財年增長了 67%。我們在 22 財年上漲了約 35%。該業務也表現出色，我們認為隨著我們的前進，它將繼續表現出色。所以至少從應用的角度來看，它真的圍繞著那些大的變化以及我們如何為這些主要的變化定位。所以我不知道 Brice 是否要添加任何內容？

No. I would just comment that the -- we highlighted that we still have to catch up to customer demand in several areas. So that adds some momentum into '23. And then the other piece is just it seems clear that productivity -- to drive productivity in the world, a lot of these things, like in the energy market, data center market, et cetera, still have resilient demand.

不，我只是評論 - 我們強調我們仍然必須在幾個領域趕上客戶需求。因此，這為 23 年增添了一些動力。然後另一部分似乎很清楚生產力——為了推動世界生產力，很多這樣的東西，比如在能源市場、數據中心市場等，仍然有彈性的需求。

And our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Gary, I have a question on long-term impact of China restrictions to both domestic and multinational spend. If I look at China spending over the last 5 years, it has outgrown WFE by 3 to 4x. What replaces this in terms of pending capital intensity and above-average profitability for you?

加里，我有一個關於中國限制國內和跨國支出的長期影響的問題。如果我看看過去 5 年中國的支出，它已經超過 WFE 的 3 到 4 倍。就您而言，在未決資本密集度和高於平均水平的盈利能力方面，什麼可以取代它？

Yes. Atif, I'll start. This is Brice. I think on the China side, when we look at that impact, the larger part of the business has been on the trailing-nodes for us, and we expect that to still be a very strong business for Applied. And we see that in both the factory projects that we monitor and also in the different end markets where there's investments.

是的。阿提夫，我要開始了。這是布萊斯。我認為在中國方面，當我們審視這種影響時，我們的大部分業務都處於尾隨節點，我們預計這對 Applied 來說仍然是一個非常強大的業務。我們在我們監控的工廠項目中以及在有投資的不同終端市場中都看到了這一點。

And then on the leading-edge, if it's a question of do we expect that demand to be taken away from WFE demand globally and permanently, we don't. It will either be satisfied in some way in China, either by multinationals or in some other way or it will move to another geography.

然後在前沿，如果這是一個問題，我們是否希望這種需求在全球範圍內永久地從 WFE 需求中消失，我們不會。它要么以某種方式在中國得到滿足，要么通過跨國公司或其他方式，要么轉移到另一個地區。

So we don't believe that, that will be an impact. And just circling back around, I would just focus on over time, we expect the China market to be a strong grower, especially in the ICAPS mature node space.

所以我們不相信，這會產生影響。回過頭來，我會關注隨著時間的推移，我們預計中國市場將成為一個強勁的增長者，尤其是在 ICAPS 成熟節點空間。

And our next question comes from the line of Toshi Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshi Hari。

I wanted to ask about the AGS business going into next fiscal year and calendar year. Obviously, it's been a very steady grower for you guys and for the overall industry. Many of your leading-edge memory customers and logic and foundry customers, I believe, are in the process of [cutting] the wafer starts potentially over the next couple of quarters.

我想詢問下一個財政年度和日曆年度的 AGS 業務。顯然，對於你們和整個行業來說，它一直是一個非常穩定的增長者。我相信，您的許多領先內存客戶以及邏輯和代工客戶都可能在接下來的幾個季度內開始 [切割] 晶圓。

So I guess the question is, when you cite services as one of the reasons why you'll outperform into next year, is the baseline assumption that business continues to grow given the installed base growth and given how you transform the mix of that business? Or could it be down (inaudible)?

所以我想問題是，當你將服務作為你明年表現出色的原因之一時，基線假設是考慮到安裝基數的增長以及你如何轉變該業務組合，業務將繼續增長嗎？或者它可能會下降（聽不清）？

Thanks, Toshi. Yes. A couple of drivers here. You'll see in our outlook for Q1 that we have a down quarter for AGS, which is unusual. And the reason is we've got a full quarter impact approximately $100 million for the reduction of the China customers that we won't be able to serve for the rest of the year.

謝謝，東施。是的。這裡有幾個司機。您會在我們對第一季度的展望中看到 AGS 的季度下降，這是不尋常的。原因是我們在今年剩餘時間無法服務的中國客戶減少，整個季度的影響約為 1 億美元。

So that's definitely a headwind in Q1. But you hit the nail on the head with respect to the dynamics thereafter. Every time we ship a tool, it grows our installed base of equipment. We grew the installed base 8% last year. Beyond -- or after that, our ability to provide services and put those services on subscription agreements, we typically outgrow the installed base than we did last year.

所以這絕對是第一季度的逆風。但是關於此後的動態，你一語中的。每次我們運送一個工具，它都會增加我們的設備安裝基礎。去年我們的安裝基數增長了 8%。超越 - 或者在那之後，我們提供服務並將這些服務納入訂閱協議的能力，我們通常會比去年增長更多的安裝基礎。

So that is the driver for the reason the services business is sticky. We have more equipment to serve. The equipment becomes more intensive in terms of service needs. And over time, that grows the business. Now to your point, a portion of the business is transactional.

這就是服務業務具有粘性的驅動因素。我們有更多的設備可以服務。設備在服務需求方面變得更加密集。隨著時間的推移，這會發展業務。現在就您的觀點而言，部分業務是交易性的。

We do see lower utilization this quarter and next quarter. What we would point to -- what we have pointed to is, even in '19, where there was lower utilization, we still grew the services business. And besides the headwind of China that I pointed out, we expect that to be the dynamic this year and going forward.

我們確實看到本季度和下季度的利用率較低。我們要指出的是——我們已經指出的是，即使在 19 年利用率較低的情況下，我們的服務業務仍在增長。除了我指出的中國的逆風之外，我們預計這將成為今年和未來的動力。

Toshiya, this is Gary. I'll add a little bit more color. So we do expect services to be up in '23. The -- as Brice mentioned, transactional will be down based on capacity utilization. But our profile, with a significant amount of our service and spares business being agreements gives us stickiness going forward. And that is continuing to increase, the comprehensive agreements up 16% last year.

Toshiya，這是 Gary。我會添加更多顏色。因此，我們確實希望在 23 年提供服務。正如 Brice 提到的那樣，交易將根據產能利用率而下降。但是我們的形象，我們的大量服務和備件業務是協議，這讓我們在未來保持粘性。而且這種情況還在繼續增加，綜合協議去年增長了 16%。

The tenure of our agreements, the length of the agreements are up to 2.6 years, renewal rates at 93%. So we're -- and it was an interesting thing through the -- all of the chip shortage period of time, we were able to demonstrate value for customers with ramp services to accelerate chip output, managed part services so that people could increase tool availability and output, managed services for yield and optimizing productivity.

我們的協議期限、協議期限最長為 2.6 年，續簽率為 93%。所以我們——這是一件有趣的事情——在所有的芯片短缺時期，我們能夠通過斜坡服務來加速芯片輸出，管理零件服務，以便人們可以增加工具來證明對客戶的價值可用性和輸出，用於產量和優化生產力的託管服務。

So all of that helped us position our service business in a higher value for our customers. And again, that's what gives us the ability to continue to grow into '23. And then the longer-term model we've communicated is double-digit growth and we still have high confidence we'll achieve that.

因此，所有這些都幫助我們將服務業務定位為為客戶提供更高的價值。再一次，這就是讓我們有能力繼續成長為 23 歲的原因。然後我們傳達的長期模型是兩位數的增長，我們仍然很有信心我們會實現這一目標。

And our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Harlan Sur 與摩根大通的對話。

Another follow-up on AGS. So looking back on fiscal '22, your semi systems operating margin declined about 200 basis points on strong revenue growth, obviously due to the inflationary cost pressures. But your AGS business sustained near-record operating margins at 30%. So I guess how has the team been able to sustain the record or near-record AGS operating profitability in this inflationary environment?

AGS 的另一個後續行動。因此，回顧 22 財年，您的半系統營業利潤率由於強勁的收入增長而下降了約 200 個基點，這顯然是由於通脹成本壓力。但您的 AGS 業務維持了 30% 的接近創紀錄的營業利潤率。所以我想在這種通貨膨脹的環境下，團隊如何能夠維持創紀錄或接近創紀錄的 AGS 運營盈利能力？

And more importantly, in a down year or potential down year next year, you guys talked last call, this call, sustainability of AGS from a revenue perspective. How should we think about the sustainability of operating margins for AGS?

更重要的是，在下一年或明年可能下行的一年中，你們從收入的角度討論了最後一次通話，這次通話，AGS 的可持續性。我們應該如何考慮 AGS 營業利潤率的可持續性？

Yes. Harlan, it's -- thank you. So one thing I would call out is we did have lower gross margins and operating margins in Q4, and that's largely due to looking at the specific inventory we had for China customers that will have to either reposition or move somewhere else or scrap. But to your point on operating profit, one of the plans the business has there is to improve the amount of repair that we do for products that we bring back to customers.

是的。哈倫，這是——謝謝。所以我要指出的一件事是，我們在第四季度的毛利率和營業利潤率確實較低，這主要是由於查看了我們為中國客戶提供的特定庫存，這些庫存將不得不重新定位或轉移到其他地方或報廢。但就營業利潤而言，企業的其中一項計劃是提高我們為返還給客戶的產品所做的維修量。

And so that helps us lower the cost and cost of goods sold with customers. And that's one of the ways that we improve our gross margins and the ultimate profit of that business. The other is just increased efficiency. As we demonstrate more and more capability with the customers, and we provide more services with the same spending profile, then that helps us maintain the profitability. Those are the 2 key drivers.

因此，這有助於我們降低與客戶銷售商品的成本和成本。這是我們提高毛利率和該業務最終利潤的方式之一。另一個只是提高效率。隨著我們向客戶展示越來越多的能力，並且我們以相同的支出狀況提供更多服務，這有助於我們保持盈利能力。這些是 2 個關鍵驅動因素。

And our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I wanted to ask about the gross margin impact from the China restriction. Can you talk about what's driving that 1 percentage point impact? And then how do we think about what you could potentially recapture in the mitigated scenario that you outlined?

我想問一下中國限制對毛利率的影響。你能談談是什麼推動了這 1 個百分點的影響嗎？然後我們如何考慮在您概述的緩解情況下您可能重新捕獲的內容？

Yes. So 2 things. And it depends on which time period you look at. But if we look forward, the gross margin impact is really that they're generally smaller customers. So the profitability of those customers for Applied is higher.

是的。所以兩件事。這取決於您查看的時間段。但如果我們向前看，毛利率的影響實際上是他們通常是較小的客戶。因此，這些客戶為 Applied 帶來的盈利能力更高。

And when we talk about mitigation, as we go forward, it's going to be TBD as to who we sell that product to and what the profitability is. So at this point, we're expecting the impact that we described. And if you look at the current quarter, we did have specific inventory for customers that's unique.

當我們談論緩解時，隨著我們的前進，關於我們將該產品賣給誰以及盈利能力是多少，這將是待定的。所以在這一點上，我們期待我們所描述的影響。而且，如果您查看當前季度，我們確實為客戶提供了獨特的特定庫存。

We are working to qualify some of that inventory, and we were successful to a degree, but we did have specific inventory that we had to take a demand [reserve] on.

我們正在努力使部分庫存合格，我們在一定程度上取得了成功，但我們確實有特定的庫存，我們必須對這些庫存進行需求[儲備]。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自蒂莫西·阿庫裡與瑞銀證券的合作。

Gary, I had a question about WFE intensity. So we're exiting this year at 15.5%, and you were saying that through 2030, you think WFE is going to grow faster than semiconductors. You've certainly been beating that drum now for a while that WFE intensity is going to keep going up.

加里，我有一個關於 WFE 強度的問題。所以我們今年的退出率為 15.5%，你說到 2030 年，你認為 WFE 的增長速度將超過半導體。你肯定已經鼓吹了一段時間，WFE 強度將繼續上升。

And obviously, there are some underlying upward pressures. But China has obviously been ordering tools and building capacity well ahead of demand now, in part due to the fear of these bans. So if China becomes a little more of a lagging tier region, wouldn't that lower WFE intensity a bit and maybe argue that maybe it has to reset a bit?

顯然，存在一些潛在的上行壓力。但中國現在顯然一直在遠超需求之前訂購工具和建設產能，部分原因是擔心這些禁令。因此，如果中國成為一個更落後的地區，這是否會降低 WFE 的強度，並且可能會爭辯說它可能需要重新設置一點？

Tim, I'll jump in for a second here just because I have the picture of the graph in my mind that we use. So we do think intensity is gradually increasing, and it's because of the reasons Gary described. A lot of steps in the process are becoming more complex and require more equipment, and we see that.

蒂姆，我會在這裡插話一下，因為我腦海中有我們使用的圖表圖片。所以我們確實認為強度正在逐漸增加，這是由於加里描述的原因。這個過程中的很多步驟變得越來越複雜，需要更多的設備，我們看到了這一點。

And then when we think about China and ICAPS specifically, in the past, there's been a lot of reuse of existing fabs and existing process tools. And that allowed for a low intensity. And that's not been what's happening in the past few years and with recent additions.

然後，當我們具體考慮中國和 ICAPS 時，在過去，有很多現有晶圓廠和現有工藝工具的重用。這允許低強度。這不是過去幾年發生的事情，也不是最近增加的。

We've talked about the number of factory projects that we see. So as capacity gets added, even in the ICAPS space, what you see is an intensity level that's more like what we were experiencing on the leading-edge just a few years ago. And that's also serving to raise the overall average of intensity. So we're pretty confident that intensity will continue to rise.

我們已經討論了我們看到的工廠項目的數量。因此，隨著容量的增加，即使在 ICAPS 空間中，您看到的強度水平更像是我們幾年前在前沿所經歷的強度水平。這也有助於提高整體平均強度。所以我們非常有信心強度會繼續上升。

Tim, on the -- relative to ICAPS, just reminding people that there was a time period where you had a lot of movement of business to foundries. And during that time period, there were many factories and tools that came on the market, all of that stuff is gone. So that's what Brice was referring to relative to ICAPS capital intensities.

蒂姆，關於 - 相對於 ICAPS，只是提醒人們，有一段時間你有很多業務轉移到鑄造廠。在那段時間裡，市場上出現了許多工廠和工具，所有這些東西都消失了。這就是 Brice 所指的與 ICAPS 資本強度相關的內容。

And then if you look at all of the -- I went through a list of key inflections -- technology inflections for customers and I gave some color around wiring and the number of steps that are increasing. That's what we're seeing really in all of the different segments of the business. So I think that capital intensity is probably the right ZIP code if we look through 2030.

然後，如果你看一下所有——我瀏覽了一個關鍵變化的列表——為客戶提供的技術變化，我在佈線和增加的步驟數量上給出了一些顏色。這就是我們在業務的所有不同領域真正看到的。所以我認為，如果我們回顧 2030 年，資本密集度可能是正確的郵政編碼。

And our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

Great. I wonder if you could talk about the environment in China with the multinationals. Obviously, they need to get a license, they did immediately get a license, but it's a 12-month license. So would you say that you generally see the footprint moving away from China with those multinational customers? Do you see any potential for that to become an issue down the road? Can you just talk generally to the fact that the multinationals were included in this?

偉大的。不知您能否與跨國公司談談中國的環境問題。顯然，他們需要獲得許可證，他們確實立即獲得了許可證，但這是 12 個月的許可證。那麼你會說你通常會看到那些跨國客戶的足跡從中國轉移出去了嗎？您是否認為這有可能成為未來的一個問題？您能否籠統地談談跨國公司被包括在其中這一事實？

Yes, Joe, this is Gary. Thanks for the question. The multinationals are not impacted today. Relative to their strategies, we'd really rather have them comment on that. So again, just today, they're not impacted. How they position their businesses geographically, that's really up to them.

是的，喬，這是加里。謝謝你的問題。跨國公司今天沒有受到影響。相對於他們的策略，我們真的更希望他們對此發表評論。所以，就在今天，他們沒有受到影響。他們如何在地理上定位他們的業務，這完全取決於他們。

And our next question comes from the line of Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I want to follow up on the earlier question on the longer-term WFE. As you think about the growth of WFE in the next, call it, 3 to 5 years, how do you think about the mix between the different type of tools, how that could change? Meaning, deposition (inaudible) versus litho versus process control, as you talk to your customers about the road map and technology inflections.

我想跟進之前關於長期 WFE 的問題。當您考慮 WFE 在未來 3 到 5 年的增長時，您如何看待不同類型工具之間的組合，這會如何改變？意思是，沉積（聽不清）與光刻與過程控制，當您與客戶談論路線圖和技術變化時。

And I also want to ask about -- I assume your served addressable market will continue to expand, but maybe help us understand how much would that grow.

而且我還想問 - 我假設您服務的可尋址市場將繼續擴大，但也許可以幫助我們了解增長的幅度。

Yes. Sidney, thanks for the question. So if you look at what our customers are talking about relative to their road maps, really, there are 5 big drivers of the technologies going forward, workload-specific architectures. There are new structures, new materials, new ways to shrink, new advanced packaging inflections for our customers. And so what we see, if you look at the advanced foundry/logic road map, you see a tremendous focus on new structures and new materials.

是的。西德尼，謝謝你的提問。因此，如果你看看我們的客戶談論的與他們的路線圖相關的內容，實際上，有 5 個推動技術發展的主要因素，即特定於工作負載的架構。我們的客戶有新結構、新材料、新收縮方法、新的先進包裝變化。所以我們所看到的，如果你看一下先進的代工/邏輯路線圖，你會看到對新結構和新材料的極大關注。

The transistor innovations around gate-all-around are essential relative to power and performance. Wiring, I talked a lot about wiring. Our largest business is metal deposition, and the wires are getting thinner and resistance goes up. So you're seeing more dollars moving in that direction.

環繞柵極的晶體管創新對於功率和性能而言至關重要。佈線，我講了很多有關佈線的內容。我們最大的業務是金屬沉積，線越來越細，電阻越來越高。所以你看到更多的美元朝那個方向移動。

Advanced packaging is an area where we see -- for sure, that's another big -- 1 of the big 5 drivers for the road maps for our customers. And that's still in the early innings around $1 billion business for us today, over 50% served market for the areas we participate. And so we see that one.

先進封裝是我們看到的一個領域——當然，這是另一個重要的——我們客戶路線圖的 5 大驅動因素之一。今天，這對我們來說仍處於早期階段，價值約 10 億美元的業務，超過 50% 的業務為我們參與的領域提供服務。所以我們看到了那個。

That's an area that will attract a tremendous amount of investment. And relative to competition between customers is very, very important. In memory, you certainly see material scaling in 3D NAND as customers are moving to more layers or other ways to include logic and memory together through different technology inflections. DRAM is moving to high speed. And so you have high-K metal gate and logic-like structures there.

這是一個將吸引大量投資的領域。並且相對於客戶之間的競爭是非常非常重要的。在內存中，您肯定會看到 3D NAND 的材料縮放，因為客戶正在轉向更多層或其他方式，通過不同的技術變化將邏輯和內存結合在一起。 DRAM 正在向高速發展。所以那裡有高 K 金屬門和類似邏輯的結構。

So a lot of that investment is moving more towards materials-enabled technologies, and that's where Applied has really a tremendous strength. I don't know, Brice, if you want to add anything there?

因此，很多投資更多地轉向了材料支持技術，而這正是 Applied 真正具有巨大優勢的地方。我不知道，Brice，你是否想在那裡添加任何內容？

No. Good. Thanks.

不好。謝謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Quinn Bolton 與 Needham & Company 的合作。

Just had a question with the CHIPS Act applications expected to be received or submitted beginning sort of the February time frame. I'm wondering as you look at your '23 WFE outlook, do you expect to see any benefits from CHIPS Act spending in '23? Or do you think it's really more of a '24 and beyond before it hits WFE spending?

剛剛對 CHIPS 法案申請有疑問，預計將在 2 月的時間範圍內收到或提交。我想知道，當您查看 23 年 WFE 展望時，您是否期望在 23 年從 CHIPS 法案支出中看到任何好處？還是您認為它真的更像是 24 歲以後才影響到 WFE 支出？

We do expect, Quinn, a small, really small amount in '23. On the equipment side, it will likely really start in '24 as a number of those projects are -- start with construction. There are a few that will start with equipment, but it will really, for us be more the '24 time frame.

我們確實希望 Quinn 在 23 年有一個非常小的數量。在設備方面，它可能真的會在 24 世紀開始，因為其中許多項目都是從建設開始的。有一些將從設備開始，但對我們來說，它真的會更像是 24 世紀的時間框架。

Quinn, one thing I'd add is that those investments are time bound. And so as Brice said, not so much in '23, starting in '24, but there are -- there is timing associated with those incentives.

奎因，我要補充的一件事是，這些投資是有時間限制的。正如布賴斯所說，從 24 年開始，23 年沒有那麼多，但有——與這些激勵措施相關的時機。

Thanks, Quinn. And operator, we have time for 2 more questions today.

謝謝，奎因。接線員，今天我們還有時間再問 2 個問題。

And our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu with New Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 Pierre Ferragu 與 New Street 的合作。

Gary, I'd like to come back to the comments you made about capital intensity and the specifics at the trailing-edge part of your portfolio. And so you described there, I think, like 3 reasons why capital intensity -- I mean, 2 reasons why capital intensity is very high there. I mean, higher than in the past. The first one is that there is no innovation going on.

加里，我想回到你對資本密集度的評論以及你投資組合後緣部分的細節。所以你在那裡描述了，我認為，資本密集度的 3 個原因——我的意思是，那裡的資本密集度非常高的 2 個原因。我的意思是，比過去更高。第一個是沒有創新。

So like -- that drives capital intensity up. And then you mentioned the fact that there used to be like a secondhand market that was (inaudible) the trailing edge that is kind of going away. And my question is there must be also a third element that justifies a very high capital intensity today, which is that we've been growing capacity very, very fast this year than last year.

就像——這推動了資本密集度的上升。然後你提到了這樣一個事實，即曾經有一個二手市場（聽不清）是一種正在消失的後緣。我的問題是，必須還有第三個因素來證明今天非常高的資本密集度是合理的，那就是我們今年的產能增長速度比去年快得多。

And there is a significant chance that the capacity growth is at some point going to slow down or even to pause. And so I'd like to hear your thoughts about that and maybe a sense of how much it could impact in the shorter term capital intensity.

產能增長很有可能會在某個時候放緩甚至暫停。因此，我想听聽您對此的看法，也許可以了解它對短期資本密集度的影響有多大。

Pierre, this is Gary. Thanks for the question. So I will say that we're 100% certain that all of these markets will not be up every year. But what we do see, if you think about pick a number, in terms of edge computing devices by 2030, these technologies are becoming much, much more pervasive. They're really -- if you think about industrial automation or gas to smart electric vehicles, a number of different inflections, a lot of these ICAPS technologies are going to grow at a fair compound annual growth rate.

皮埃爾，這是加里。謝謝你的問題。所以我會說我們 100% 肯定所有這些市場不會每年都上漲。但我們確實看到，如果你考慮選擇一個數字，到 2030 年，就邊緣計算設備而言，這些技術將變得越來越普遍。他們真的 - 如果你考慮工業自動化或智能電動汽車的天然氣，許多不同的變化，很多這些 ICAPS 技術將以公平的複合年增長率增長。

And I think that's what other people are seeing also. So how that -- what the shape of that looks like every single year, we're not going to forecast that. But we do think that, that business is going to see healthy growth. And that's why also we formed the ICAPS organization 3 years ago. We saw that, that market was going to be significant from a growth perspective and pulled together all of our different technologies.

我認為這也是其他人所看到的。那麼這如何 - 每年的形狀如何，我們不會預測。但我們確實認為，該業務將實現健康增長。這也是我們 3 年前成立 ICAPS 組織的原因。我們看到，從增長的角度來看，該市場將具有重要意義，並將我們所有不同的技術結合在一起。

So again, if I look across all of those segments within ICAPS, we think over the longer term, there will be significant compound annual growth rates. We have very, very strong positions in enabling some of those technology inflections in ICAPS, but not going to give a specific profile on a year-by-year basis.

因此，如果我再次審視 ICAPS 中的所有這些部分，我們認為從長遠來看，複合年增長率將會顯著。我們在 ICAPS 中實現其中一些技術變化方面擁有非常非常強大的地位，但不會逐年給出具體情況。

And our final question comes from the line of David O'Connor with [Exane BNP].

我們的最後一個問題來自 David O'Connor 與 [Exane BNP] 的對話。

Great. Follow-up on the backlog to a previous question. Gary or Brice, how should we think about the time frame of getting the backlog back to a kind of more normalized level? Or when do you expect to get caught up on demand for those products that are running pretty (inaudible) on the PPACt side?

偉大的。跟進上一個問題的積壓工作。 Gary 或 Brice，我們應該如何考慮將積壓恢復到更正常水平的時間範圍？或者您預計什麼時候會趕上那些在 PPACt 方面運行良好（聽不清）的產品的需求？

Yes. Thanks, David. We're expecting it's going to take us more than 2 quarters. So depending on the line of equipment, I would say between 2 and 4 quarters is our internal estimate. And so -- that's what we're focused on. We are behind with the customers, and we're working on increasing output every week. Thanks for the question.

是的。謝謝，大衛。我們預計這將花費我們超過 2 個季度的時間。因此，根據設備系列，我會說 2 到 4 個季度是我們的內部估計。所以——這就是我們關注的重點。我們落後於客戶，我們每週都在努力增加產量。謝謝你的問題。

Yes. Thanks, David, for your question. And Brice, would you like to give us your closing thoughts today?

是的。大衛，謝謝你的問題。 Brice，你今天想給我們說說你的結束語嗎？

Absolutely. Clearly, there are questions about the market in the near term. But for our part, we had healthy Q4 orders, and we have record backlog that we described and it's mostly in our leadership product areas that drive the big technology inflections. Job 1 for us is increasing our output to meet customer demand.

絕對地。顯然，近期市場存在疑問。但就我們而言，我們有健康的第四季度訂單，我們有我們描述的創紀錄的積壓，而且主要是在我們的領先產品領域，推動了重大的技術轉變。我們的工作 1 是增加產量以滿足客戶需求。

We're in a strong financial position to continue to develop our broad portfolio of technology and to drive the critical inflections and to support, eventually, a $1 trillion semiconductor market. I hope we get to see many of you at the upcoming Credit Suisse and Wells Fargo conferences. In the meantime, we hope you enjoy a safe and happy Thanksgiving. Thank you. Mike, let's close it up.

我們的財務狀況良好，可以繼續開發我們廣泛的技術組合，推動關鍵的變化，並最終支持價值 1 萬億美元的半導體市場。我希望我們能在即將舉行的瑞士信貸和富國銀行會議上見到你們中的許多人。與此同時，我們希望您度過一個安全快樂的感恩節。謝謝你。邁克，讓我們結束吧。

Okay. Great, Brice. So we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 Pacific Time, and we would like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。太好了，布萊斯。所以我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。太平洋時間 5:00 之前，我們的網站上將提供電話重播，感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。