應用材料 (AMAT) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎來到應用材料公司財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Bob Halliday, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好，感謝您參加應用材料公司 2022 財年第一季度財報電話會議。加入我的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Dickerson；和我們的首席財務官 Bob Halliday。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-K and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到可能導致我們實際結果不同的風險和不確定性的影響。有關風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 最近提交給 SEC 的 10-K 和 8-K 表格中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益材料中可以找到與 GAAP 措施的對賬，這些材料可在我們網站的 IR 頁面上找到，網址為 Appliedmaterials.com。

Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. Applied will hold its next master class on Thursday, April 21, at 9:00 Pacific Time. We'll cover patterning technologies for the chip-making industry, including 2D scaling with EUV lithography, materials-enabled patterning of gate-all-around transistors and 3D patterning control using e-beam technology and AI(x). We hope you'll join our technology experts for presentations and Q&A.

在我們開始之前，我有一個日曆公告。 Applied 將於 4 月 21 日星期四太平洋時間 9:00 舉行下一次大師班。我們將介紹芯片製造行業的圖案化技術，包括使用 EUV 光刻技術的 2D 縮放、基於材料的環柵晶體管圖案化以及使用電子束技術和 AI(x) 的 3D 圖案化控制。我們希望您能與我們的技術專家一起進行演示和問答。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給 Gary Dickerson。

Thank you, Mike. This is an unprecedented period for Applied Materials and the semiconductor industry. Demand for semiconductors has never been stronger or broader, and the supply chain's ability to fulfill this growing demand is constrained in the near term.

謝謝你，邁克。對於應用材料和半導體行業來說，這是一個前所未有的時期。對半導體的需求從未如此強烈或廣泛，供應鏈滿足這種不斷增長的需求的能力在短期內受到限制。

While the supply environment remains challenging, we landed our first fiscal quarter of 2022 towards the high end of our guidance range and delivered our highest-ever quarterly revenues. These results are a testament to the capabilities and commitment of our global team who are executing well and focused on doing everything possible to deliver for our customers.

儘管供應環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們將 2022 年第一財季的業績推向了指導範圍的高端，並實現了有史以來最高的季度收入。這些結果證明了我們全球團隊的能力和承諾，他們執行良好並專注於盡一切可能為我們的客戶提供服務。

The industry clearly has a long way to go before supply catches up with demand. Applied's orders for the quarter were an all-time high, beating our previous record by $0.5 billion. To ensure our own manufacturing capacity is not a limiting factor, we've made and continue to make strategic investments in our global infrastructure. This includes our state-of-the-art logistics service center in Austin, Texas that we're bringing online this month.

在供應趕上需求之前，該行業顯然還有很長的路要走。應用材料公司本季度的訂單創歷史新高，比我們之前的記錄高出 5 億美元。為了確保我們自己的製造能力不是限制因素，我們已經並繼續對我們的全球基礎設施進行戰略投資。這包括我們在德克薩斯州奧斯汀的最先進的物流服務中心，我們將在本月上線。

Like many in the industry, the biggest challenge we face today is the availability of certain silicon components that go into subsystems within our products. We are working closely with our suppliers to find solutions and eliminate bottlenecks. I would like to thank them for their partnership as we collaborate in new ways to overcome near-term headwinds and build a stronger supply chain that better supports the future needs of the industry.

與業內許多人一樣，我們今天面臨的最大挑戰是我們產品子系統中某些矽組件的可用性。我們正在與供應商密切合作，尋找解決方案並消除瓶頸。我要感謝他們的合作，因為我們以新的方式合作以克服近期的不利因素並建立更強大的供應鏈，以更好地支持行業的未來需求。

In today's call, I'll talk about our demand outlook, which is very strong and strengthening. I'll provide our longer-term perspective on the secular trends reshaping the semiconductor industry. And I'll give you some updates on the progress we're making against our strategic goals and how we're positioned to outperform our markets over the coming years. Later in the call, Bob will share his perspective on the state of the industry and our financial outlook.

在今天的電話會議中，我將討論我們的需求前景，它非常強勁且正在加強。我將就重塑半導體行業的長期趨勢提供我們的長期觀點。我將向您介紹我們在實現戰略目標方面取得的進展，以及我們如何在未來幾年超越市場。在電話會議的後期，鮑勃將分享他對行業狀況和我們財務前景的看法。

Let me start with market demand. It's clear that wafer fab equipment spending in 2021 was limited by supply, with some unmet demand pushing into 2022. If we look at our Semiconductor Systems revenues from the second quarter of 2021 to the end of Q1 2022 and compare to the prior 12-month period, they were up 43% year-on-year. We think this is a good approximation for industry growth in calendar 2021, which would put WFE in the mid-$80 billion range.

讓我從市場需求開始。很明顯，2021 年的晶圓廠設備支出受到供應的限制，一些未滿足的需求將進入 2022 年。如果我們看看我們的半導體系統從 2021 年第二季度到 2022 年第一季度末的收入，並與之前的 12 個月進行比較期間，同比增長 43%。我們認為這是 2021 年行業增長的一個很好的近似值，這將使 WFE 處於 800 億美元左右的範圍內。

Demand is very strong and continues to grow. We believe wafer fab equipment spending could reach $100 billion in 2022. And since we are already close to being sold out for the year, we also have a positive growth outlook for 2023.

需求非常強勁，而且還在繼續增長。我們認為晶圓廠設備支出在 2022 年可能達到 1000 億美元。由於我們已經接近全年售罄，我們對 2023 年也有積極的增長前景。

Within WFE, foundry/logic spending grew faster than memory in 2021, and we see it growing faster than memory again in 2022. We believe foundry/logic made up more than 60% of total WFE investments last year and will remain at these levels or increase as a percentage of the mix over the next several years.

在 WFE 中，代工/邏輯支出在 2021 年的增長速度快於內存，我們認為它在 2022 年的增長速度再次超過內存。我們認為，代工/邏輯佔去年 WFE 總投資的 60% 以上，並將保持在這些水平或在接下來的幾年裡，它在組合中的百分比會增加。

Innovation at the edge and in the cloud means that foundry/logic demand is broad-based and split relatively evenly between the most advanced nodes and ICAPS customers who serve the IoT, communications, automotive, power electronics and sensors markets.

邊緣和雲端的創新意味著代工/邏輯需求基礎廣泛，並且在最先進的節點和服務於物聯網、通信、汽車、電力電子和傳感器市場的 ICAPS 客戶之間相對平均分配。

It's also important to put this near-term demand outlook in the context of the secular trends, driving longer-term growth and structural changes in the industry. While digital transformation is already reshaping the global economy today, it will take decades to fully play out around the world, and that the foundation of this multitrillion-dollar inflection is advanced silicon. Today, 9 of the top 10 most valuable companies in the world either design or build chips. Eight of the 9 are now designing their own customized silicon in-house, and the other one manufactures a large percentage of the world's chips by value. I think this is a great example of the fundamental role silicon plays in driving the system-level power, performance and cost improvements that will unlock the full potential of digital transformation and the metaverse.

將這種近期需求前景置於長期趨勢的背景下也很重要，這將推動行業的長期增長和結構變化。儘管數字化轉型已經在重塑當今的全球經濟，但要在全球範圍內充分發揮作用還需要幾十年的時間，而這種價值數万億美元的轉變的基礎是先進的矽。如今，全球市值最高的 10 家公司中有 9 家設計或製造芯片。這 9 家公司中有 8 家現在正在內部設計自己的定制芯片，而另一家則按價值製造了世界上很大比例的芯片。我認為這是矽在推動系統級功率、性能和成本改進方面發揮的基本作用的一個很好的例子，這將釋放數字化轉型和元界的全部潛力。

Back in 2018, we introduced our framework for describing the semiconductor industry's future technology road map. We call this the new PPACt playbook and said it had 5 key elements: new chip architectures like workload-specific ASICs; new 3D structures like gate-all-around transistors, backside power distribution, next-generation 3D NAND and 3D DRAM; new materials in gate, contact and interconnect; new ways to shrink from EUV lithography to advanced patterning; and advanced packaging from 2.5D silicon interposers to 3D chiplets and hybrid bonding.

早在 2018 年，我們就介紹了描述半導體行業未來技術路線圖的框架。我們稱其為新的 PPACt 劇本，並表示它有 5 個關鍵要素：新的芯片架構，如特定於工作負載的 ASIC；新的 3D 結構，如環柵晶體管、背面配電、下一代 3D NAND 和 3D DRAM；柵極、接觸和互連的新材料；從 EUV 光刻縮小到高級圖案化的新方法；以及從 2.5D 矽中介層到 3D 小芯片和混合鍵合的先進封裝。

As the major technology inflections that make up the PPACt playbook take shape, it's clear this future road map is more multifaceted and complex than anything the industry has done before. This increasing complexity has positive implications for Applied Materials. First, we expect capital intensity to remain at the levels we have seen over recent years; and second, Applied's broad capabilities are more valuable because they allow us to address higher order problems for customers and provide them with more complete solutions.

隨著構成 PPACt 劇本的主要技術變化逐漸成形，很明顯，這個未來的路線圖比行業以前所做的任何事情都更加多面和復雜。這種日益增加的複雜性對應用材料公司具有積極意義。首先，我們預計資本密集度將保持在我們近年來看到的水平；其次，應用材料公司的廣泛能力更有價值，因為它們使我們能夠為客戶解決更高階的問題，並為他們提供更完整的解決方案。

On top of the opportunities created by the PPACt playbook, major supply chain inflections are underway that are also positive for industry economics. This starts with a shift from just-in-time to a just-in-case philosophy. The most visible example of this is the automotive industry where the major carmakers are quantifying the cost of lost business in 2021 and rapidly changing the way they work with suppliers of their most critical components.

除了 PPACt 手冊創造的機會之外，主要的供應鏈拐點正在發生，這也對行業經濟有利。這始於從及時處理到以防萬一的理念的轉變。這方面最明顯的例子是汽車行業，主要汽車製造商正在量化 2021 年業務損失的成本，並迅速改變他們與最關鍵零部件供應商的合作方式。

We're also working differently with our customers. They are providing us with longer-term visibility, and we are collaborating more closely on capacity planning.

我們也以不同的方式與客戶合作。它們為我們提供了更長期的可見性，我們在容量規劃方面進行了更密切的合作。

In addition, the strategic and economic importance of semiconductors is being recognized at a national level. In the coming years, government support and incentives in the U.S., Europe and Japan will translate into regionalization of supply. As I've highlighted before, these regional supply chains will be more resilient but also less capital-efficient, which is an additional tailwind for us.

此外，半導體的戰略和經濟重要性正在國家層面得到認可。未來幾年，美國、歐洲和日本的政府支持和激勵措施將轉化為供應區域化。正如我之前強調的那樣，這些區域供應鏈將更具彈性，但資本效率也會降低，這對我們來說是一個額外的順風。

Overall, our outlook for the next decade is very positive. We expect semiconductor and wafer fab equipment to grow significantly faster than the economy with outsized opportunities for Applied Materials.

總體而言，我們對未來十年的展望非常樂觀。我們預計半導體和晶圓廠設備的增長速度將明顯快於經濟增長，這將為應用材料公司帶來巨大的機會。

To be ready for this exciting future, we've aligned our organization and investments around 3 strategic pillars. First, to be the PPACt enablement company and provide the foundation for customers' road maps for power, performance, area, cost and time to market; second, to shift more of our business to subscriptions; and third, to generate incremental free cash flows and profitability from our businesses in adjacent markets.

為了為這個激動人心的未來做好準備，我們圍繞 3 個戰略支柱調整了我們的組織和投資。首先，成為 PPACt 支持公司，為客戶制定功率、性能、面積、成本和上市時間的路線圖奠定基礎；第二，將我們更多的業務轉向訂閱；第三，從我們在鄰近市場的業務中產生增量自由現金流和盈利能力。

Earlier, I talked about key technology inflections that make up the PPACt playbook: gate-all-around, backside power distribution, 3D NAND, 3D DRAM, new materials in the gate, contact and interconnect and advanced packaging. All of these inflections are primarily enabled by materials engineering, Applied's core strength. And as a result, they grow our total available market. Thanks to our relentless focus on developing differentiated technology, to enable these inflections, we are also in a great position to capture more of that growing TAM.

早些時候，我談到了構成 PPACt 劇本的關鍵技術變化：環柵極、背面配電、3D NAND、3D DRAM、柵極中的新材料、接觸和互連以及先進封裝。所有這些變化主要是由材料工程（應用材料公司的核心力量）促成的。結果，他們擴大了我們的總可用市場。由於我們不懈地專注於開發差異化技術，以實現這些變化，我們也處於一個很好的位置，可以捕捉更多不斷增長的 TAM。

For example, in the transition from FinFET to first-generation gate-all-around, our transistor TAM grows by more than $1 billion per 100,000 wafer starts per month. And based on our tool of record positions, we expect to capture the majority of the inflection. We will provide more details about these inflections and how we expect them to play out in our 2022 master classes.

例如，在從 FinFET 到第一代環柵的過渡過程中，我們的晶體管 TAM 每月每啟動 100,000 片晶圓就增長超過 10 億美元。根據我們的頭寸記錄工具，我們希望能捕捉到大部分的拐點。我們將提供有關這些變化的更多詳細信息，以及我們希望它們如何在 2022 年的大師班中發揮作用。

While current supply constraints mean that we can't fully realize the strength in our business, we are executing very well against our product road map, and there are clear leading indicators of our future growth potential. I'll highlight a few recent examples. In etch, we've recently won multiple tool of record positions at advanced nodes and foundry/logic across all 3 leading-edge customers. This is significant because these wins are in areas we haven't served in the past and demonstrate how our next generation of etch solutions address customers' most challenging applications.

雖然當前的供應限制意味著我們無法充分發揮我們業務的優勢，但我們的產品路線圖執行得非常好，並且有明確的領先指標表明我們未來的增長潛力。我將重點介紹一些最近的例子。在 etch 中，我們最近在所有 3 個領先客戶中贏得了多個先進節點和代工廠/邏輯工具的記錄位置。這很重要，因為這些勝利是在我們過去沒有服務過的領域，並展示了我們的下一代蝕刻解決方案如何解決客戶最具挑戰性的應用。

In inspection and metrology where we have fewer supply chain constraints, our trailing 12-month revenues were up 68% year-on-year, and our e-beam revenues nearly doubled in that period. We expect to outperform the market again in 2022 with especially strong growth in optical wafer inspection, combined with further extension of our e-beam leadership.

在供應鏈限制較少的檢驗和計量領域，我們過去 12 個月的收入同比增長 68%，而我們的電子束收入在此期間幾乎翻了一番。我們預計 2022 年將再次跑贏市場，光學晶圓檢測的增長尤其強勁，再加上我們在電子束領域的領先地位進一步擴大。

Beyond unit process excellence, Applied is able to combine the industry's broadest technology portfolio and unique ways to create co-optimized and fully integrated solutions. For example, co-optimization of hard mask, deposition and etch is an enabling solution for high aspect ratio structures. Adoption of our co-optimized Draco solution is accelerating and on track to generate an incremental $600 million of revenue this year. And we recently secured our first wins with a new carbon hard mask, deposition and etch solution at a leading memory manufacturer.

除了卓越的單元流程之外，應用材料公司還能夠結合業界最廣泛的技術組合和獨特的方式來創建共同優化和完全集成的解決方案。例如，硬掩模、沉積和蝕刻的協同優化是高縱橫比結構的可行解決方案。我們共同優化的 Draco 解決方案的採用正在加速，並有望在今年增加 6 億美元的收入。我們最近在一家領先的內存製造商處獲得了新的碳硬掩模、沉積和蝕刻解決方案，從而贏得了我們的第一場胜利。

Another key component of our technology portfolio is our digital tools that accelerate R&D, technology transfer and ramp, and optimize productivity in high-volume manufacturing. We are engaged with a broad range of customers. In this quarter, we secured a new strategic penetration for R&D acceleration using our AI(x), Actionable Insight Accelerator platform, at a leading customer. As part of this engagement, we will use our unique sensor technology and proprietary machine learning algorithms for rapid process window tuning and process variability reduction.

我們技術組合的另一個關鍵組成部分是我們的數字工具，可加速研發、技術轉讓和提升，並優化大批量製造的生產力。我們與廣泛的客戶接觸。在本季度，我們使用我們的 AI(x)、Actionable Insight Accelerator 平台在一家領先客戶處獲得了新的研發加速戰略滲透。作為此次合作的一部分，我們將使用我們獨特的傳感器技術和專有的機器學習算法來快速調整過程窗口和減少過程可變性。

We're also making progress on our multiyear journey to increase subscription revenues. Within AGS, more than 60% of our parts and service revenue is generated from subscriptions in the form of long-term service agreements. The average tenure of these agreements is now 2.3 years, up from 1.9 years 12 months ago, and the renewal rate is over 90%. In addition, when we look at our combined software business in AGS and semi systems, which are also subscription-based, we expect them to generate more than $300 million of revenue this year.

我們還在增加訂閱收入的多年旅程中取得了進展。在 AGS 內部，我們 60% 以上的零件和服務收入來自以長期服務協議的形式訂閱。這些協議的平均期限現在為 2.3 年，高於 12 個月前的 1.9 年，續簽率超過 90%。此外，當我們查看我們在 AGS 和半系統（也是基於訂閱的）中的合併軟件業務時，我們預計它們今年將產生超過 3 億美元的收入。

Before I hand the call over to Bob, I'll quickly summarize. Applied and our global teams are executing well in a challenging and dynamic environment, and our near-term focus is on doing everything we can to expedite deliveries to our customers. Demand for semiconductors and wafer fab equipment remains strong and continues to grow. There's still a long way to go before supply catches up with demand. Our outlook for 2022 and beyond is very positive as long-term secular trends drive our markets structurally higher.

在我將電話交給 Bob 之前，我將快速總結一下。應用材料公司和我們的全球團隊在充滿挑戰和動態的環境中表現良好，我們近期的重點是盡我們所能加快向客戶交付的速度。對半導體和晶圓廠設備的需求依然強勁並繼續增長。在供應趕上需求之前還有很長的路要走。我們對 2022 年及以後的展望非常樂觀，因為長期的長期趨勢推動我們的市場在結構上走高。

In addition, the major technology inflections that make up the industry's PPACt road map expand Applied's addressable market opportunities, and our broad and differentiated technology portfolio puts us in a great position to capture a larger portion of our served markets in years to come.

此外，構成行業 PPACt 路線圖的主要技術變化擴大了 Applied 的潛在市場機會，而我們廣泛且差異化的技術組合使我們處於有利地位，可以在未來幾年內佔據我們所服務市場的更大份額。

With that, Bob, it's over to you.

有了這個，鮑勃，一切都交給你了。

Thanks, Gary. I'd like to begin by thanking our teams and our partners for doing everything they could in a challenging supply chain environment. We still have a lot of work to do to satisfy our customers' needs, and this is job 1 for all of us.

謝謝，加里。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊和合作夥伴在充滿挑戰的供應鏈環境中所做的一切。為了滿足客戶的需求，我們還有很多工作要做，這是我們所有人的工作 1。

I have 3 main messages for you today. One, demand for Applied's products is very strong and continues to grow. Two, we remain supply chain limited, and we forecast gradual improvement over the course of the year. Three, we expect to grow our revenue and earnings each quarter through the end of the calendar year. And we believe it is increasingly likely that 2023 will be another growth year.

今天我有 3 條主要信息要告訴你。一，應用材料的產品需求非常旺盛，而且還在持續增長。第二，我們的供應鏈仍然有限，我們預計今年會逐步改善。第三，我們預計到日曆年末每個季度的收入和收益都會增加。我們認為，2023 年將成為另一個增長年的可能性越來越大。

Next, I'll summarize our Q1 results. Then I'll provide details about the demand environment for Applied Materials. And finally, I'll share our guidance for fiscal Q2 and the rate of growth we expect to see throughout the year.

接下來，我將總結我們的第一季度業績。然後我將詳細介紹應用材料的需求環境。最後，我將分享我們對第二財季的指導以及我們預計全年的增長率。

In Q1, we delivered strong year-over-year revenue and earnings growth and exceeded the midpoint of our guidance. The supply chain environment was challenging. Our teams collaborate broadly with partners upstream and downstream of Applied to maximize the supply of components to our manufacturing sites and service locations. This work enabled us to deliver record semiconductor systems revenue, which we grew by 29% year-over-year.

在第一季度，我們實現了強勁的同比收入和盈利增長，並超過了我們指導的中點。供應鏈環境充滿挑戰。我們的團隊與 Applied 的上游和下游合作夥伴廣泛合作，以最大限度地向我們的製造基地和服務地點供應組件。這項工作使我們能夠實現創紀錄的半導體系統收入，同比增長 29%。

We grew fastest in foundry/logic year-over-year, and we continue to expect foundry/logic to outgrow WFE in 2022 with strength in both leading edge and ICAPS. From a product perspective in Q1, we generated record quarterly revenue in process control, CVD and CMP, and we achieved our highest-ever DRAM revenue. We also grew non-GAAP operating margin in semi by 280 basis points year-over-year. In AGS, we grew revenue by 14% year-over-year and increased non-GAAP operating margin by 110 basis points. About 3/4 of the AGS' year-over-year growth was in recurring revenue. Our AGS service revenues grew sequentially and year-over-year. We increased our tools under comprehensive service agreement by 13% year-over-year, and our subscription renewal rate was 92%.

我們在代工/邏輯方面的同比增長最快，我們繼續預計代工/邏輯將在 2022 年超越 WFE，並在領先優勢和 ICAPS 方面都有實力。從第一季度的產品角度來看，我們在工藝控制、CVD 和 CMP 方面創造了創紀錄的季度收入，並且我們實現了有史以來最高的 DRAM 收入。我們還將非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率同比增長了 280 個基點。在 AGS，我們的收入同比增長 14%，非 GAAP 營業利潤率提高了 110 個基點。 AGS 的同比增長中約有 3/4 來自經常性收入。我們的 AGS 服務收入環比和同比增長。綜合服務協議下的工具同比增長 13%，續訂率為 92%。

Our parts business met our expectations but could have been even higher. AGS includes our legacy 200-millimeter equipment revenue, which was below our expectations in Q1 due to supply chain constraints that prevented us from shipping to demand within the quarter. For the fiscal year, we continue to expect AGS to grow in the low double digits, with potential upside depending on the supply chain recovery. In display, we exceeded our revenue goal in Q1 and increased non-GAAP operating margin by 280 basis points year-over-year.

我們的零件業務達到了我們的預期，但本可以更高。 AGS 包括我們傳統的 200 毫米設備收入，由於供應鏈限制使我們無法在本季度內滿足需求，這低於我們在第一季度的預期。對於本財年，我們繼續預計 AGS 將以兩位數的低位增長，其潛在上行空間取決於供應鏈的複蘇。在展示中，我們在第一季度超過了我們的收入目標，並且非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率同比增長了 280 個基點。

Summarizing Applied's Q1 results on a year-over-year basis. We increased revenue by 21%, non-GAAP gross margin by 140 basis points, non-GAAP operating profit by 270 basis points and non-GAAP EPS by 36%. In addition, we generated record free cash flow and distributed over $2 billion to shareholders, with $1.8 billion in repurchases and $214 million in dividends.

總結應用的第一季度業績同比。我們的收入增長了 21%，non-GAAP 毛利率增長了 140 個基點，non-GAAP 營業利潤增長了 270 個基點，non-GAAP EPS 增長了 36%。此外，我們創造了創紀錄的自由現金流，向股東分配了超過 20 億美元，其中包括 18 億美元的回購和 2.14 億美元的股息。

Next, I'll address the impact of the supply environment on our business in the near term. Underlying demand for Applied's technology is very strong and growing. And we believe that as we work through the supply chain constraints, we will demonstrate the progress we're making toward our market share and gross margin targets.

接下來，我將在短期內討論供應環境對我們業務的影響。對 Applied 技術的潛在需求非常強勁且不斷增長。我們相信，當我們克服供應鏈限制時，我們將展示我們在實現市場份額和毛利率目標方面取得的進展。

Although we don't usually report backlog on a quarterly basis, I'm going to give some further color on today's call to help you understand our confidence. In Q1, our semi systems backlog increased by more than $1.3 billion to a record $8 billion. Moreover, the backlog includes a rich mix of products that are highly enabling to our customers' road maps. What this tells us is that in an unconstrained environment, we would have produced substantially higher revenue and demonstrated a healthy share gain in calendar 2021.

儘管我們通常不會按季度報告積壓，但我將在今天的電話會議上進一步說明，以幫助您了解我們的信心。在第一季度，我們的半系統積壓增加了超過 13 億美元，達到創紀錄的 80 億美元。此外，積壓的產品包括豐富的產品組合，這些產品高度支持我們客戶的路線圖。這告訴我們的是，在不受約束的環境中，我們將產生更高的收入，並在 2021 年表現出健康的份額增長。

Also, absent the supply chain issues, our gross margin in fiscal 2022 will be very close to the targets in our 2024 financial model. We are laser-focused on improving the supply chain, which will enable us to support our customers and demonstrate the strength of our business.

此外，如果沒有供應鏈問題，我們 2022 財年的毛利率將非常接近我們 2024 年財務模型中的目標。我們專注於改善供應鏈，這將使我們能夠支持我們的客戶並展示我們的業務實力。

As Gary outlined, we expect the WFE market to grow by over 15% in 2022 to $100 billion or more. Even with the constraints, we expect to outgrow the market in our semi business and carry sizable backlog into 2023.

正如 Gary 所述，我們預計 WFE 市場將在 2022 年增長 15% 以上，達到 1000 億美元或更多。即使有限制，我們預計我們的半成品業務的市場增長將超過市場，並在 2023 年進行大量積壓。

Now I'll share our guidance for Q2. We expect to increase revenue to $6.35 billion, plus or minus $300 million, which is up almost 14% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP EPS in Q2 to be around $1.90, plus or minus $0.15, which is up around 17% year-over-year. Within this outlook, we expect semi systems revenue of around $4.6 billion, up 16% year-over-year; AGS revenue of around $1.35 billion, up 12% year-over-year; and display revenue of around $380 million.

現在我將分享我們對第二季度的指導。我們預計收入將增加至 63.5 億美元，上下浮動 3 億美元，同比增長近 14%。我們預計第二季度非公認會計原則每股收益約為 1.90 美元，上下浮動 0.15 美元，同比增長約 17%。在此展望中，我們預計半導體系統收入約為 46 億美元，同比增長 16%； AGS收入約13.5億美元，同比增長12%；並顯示收入約為 3.8 億美元。

Applied's non-GAAP gross margin should decline to around 47% in Q2 as we absorb near-term cost pressures primarily related to expediting shipments to our customers. After Q2, we expect to gradually increase the gross margin by mitigating cost pressures and shipping a richer mix of high-margin products. Non-GAAP OpEx should be around $1.015 billion in Q2, and our non-GAAP tax rate should be around 12%.

由於我們吸收了主要與加快向客戶發貨有關的近期成本壓力，應用材料公司的非公認會計原則毛利率應在第二季度下降至 47% 左右。第二季度之後，我們預計將通過緩解成本壓力和運送更豐富的高利潤率產品組合來逐步提高毛利率。第二季度非 GAAP 運營支出應該在 10.15 億美元左右，我們的非 GAAP 稅率應該在 12% 左右。

Looking ahead, we expect we can grow revenues by increasing mid-single-digit percentages each quarter through the end of the calendar year. And based on customer conversations about semiconductor demand and technology inflections, we're increasingly optimistic that 2023 will be another growth year for the industry and especially for Applied.

展望未來，我們預計到日曆年年底，我們可以通過每個季度增加中個位數百分比來增加收入。根據客戶關於半導體需求和技術變化的對話，我們越來越樂觀地認為，2023 年將是該行業，尤其是應用材料公司的又一個增長年。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

現在邁克，讓我們開始問答吧。

Thanks, Bob. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，鮑勃。 （操作員說明）操作員，讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess a question on gross margins, particularly in the current challenging supply environment. You guided at 47% and expectation is for that to grow through the year. Can you speak to what it'll take you to build out greater scale upstream for your key suppliers? What impact that might have on input cost for you and then your ability to pass those down to your customers? And what gives you the confidence that you can get to that 48.5% as part of the target model? And I guess as part of that, if you could frame what your expectations are, when you might be able to hit that type of number?

我想是一個關於毛利率的問題，尤其是在當前充滿挑戰的供應環境中。您的指導率為 47%，預計這一數字將在全年增長。您能否談談為您的主要供應商建立更大的上游規模需要什麼？這可能對您的投入成本以及您將這些成本傳遞給客戶的能力產生什麼影響？是什麼讓您有信心將 48.5% 作為目標模型的一部分？我想作為其中的一部分，如果你能確定你的期望是什麼，你什麼時候可以達到那種類型的數字？

Let me take those 6 questions, C.J. So first, what's going on with gross margins? What's the outlook? And what can we do? So what's going on with gross margins? As you know, in Q4 of 2021, we did [48.2%]. The long-term model in 2024, I guess, it is, is 48.5% at $87 billion, 48.8% at $100 billion. We were down 47.3% this quarter. We guide around 47%. We go up half a point [the other year]. There are 2 things that are hitting us. One is cost increases from logistics, inefficient factory ops -- operations like overhead and [burn] absorption, and thirdly, some material cost issues. I'd price those in at 1% to 1.5% on gross margin impact, probably about 1.2% is the middle point. I would say that most of those are transitory, factory absorption, logistics and a bunch of the material cost stuff should get better. So I'd say, over 2/3 of that is kind of transitory.

讓我回答這 6 個問題，C.J。首先，毛利率是怎麼回事？前景如何？我們能做什麼？那麼毛利率是怎麼回事呢？如您所知，在 2021 年第四季度，我們做到了 [48.2%]。我猜，2024 年的長期模型是 48.5% 為 870 億美元，48.8% 為 1000 億美元。本季度我們下跌了 47.3%。我們指導大約 47%。 [前一年]我們上漲了半個點。有兩件事正在打擊我們。一是物流成本增加，工廠運營效率低下——管理費用和[燃燒]吸收等操作，三是一些材料成本問題。我會根據毛利率的影響將它們定價為 1% 到 1.5%，可能大約 1.2% 是中間點。我想說大部分都是暫時的，工廠吸收，物流和一堆材料成本的東西應該會變得更好。所以我想說，其中超過 2/3 是暫時的。

The second one is mix. We have a couple of (inaudible). We have very, very strong orders and backlog, particularly in semi. So if we had a higher mix of semi versus non-semi, we help our gross margins. Secondly, if you had a better -- if you look -- we priced out the mix of our semi backlog. So our mix in the semi backlog is very attractive. So if you look at those 2 mix things and you normalize by past backlog levels, well, we could ship. You pick again another 1 to 1.5 points of gross margins. And again, the sweet spot is kind of 1.2. So if you're at [$80 billion, 47%] next quarter, if you could get 1 point to 1.2, you're pretty much on model. You might be above it a little bit actually. So that's the scale of what we're looking at. So we're pretty confident we're on the model trajectory of 48.5% at $87 billion and 48.8% at $100 billion WFE.

第二個是混合。我們有幾個（聽不清）。我們有非常非常強大的訂單和積壓訂單，特別是在半成品中。因此，如果我們的半成品與非半成品的混合比例更高，我們就會提高我們的毛利率。其次，如果你有更好的 - 如果你看 - 我們定價了我們半積壓的組合。所以我們在半積壓中的組合非常有吸引力。因此，如果您查看這 2 個混合內容，並根據過去的積壓水平進行標準化，那麼我們可以發貨。您再次選擇另外 1 到 1.5 個點的毛利率。再一次，甜蜜點是1.2。因此，如果你在下個季度達到 [800 億美元，47%]，如果你能得到 1 點到 1.2 點，那麼你就非常符合模型了。實際上，您可能略高於它。這就是我們正在研究的規模。因此，我們非常有信心，我們處於 870 億美元的 48.5% 和 1000 億美元 WFE 的 48.8% 的模型軌跡上。

Secondly, the cost increases, can we do anything to mitigate that and pass it along? With customers, our 3 primary issues are: one, we have to do better on deliveries. Job 1 for us is to ship more tools, get them out the door on time to customers. And that's our commitment to customers. Secondly, for a long time, we have created really valuable tools and shared that value with our customers and ourselves. And I think we've done a good job on both sides. Now that we have these unusual cost pressures, I think it's fair to have that discussion with customers. But job 1 and job 2 is to get our product shipping in volume on time and also to create value for customers. But I think we can have that type of conversation.

其次，成本增加了，我們能做些什麼來減輕它並把它傳遞下去嗎？對於客戶，我們的三個主要問題是：第一，我們必須在交付方面做得更好。我們的工作 1 是運送更多工具，準時將它們送到客戶手中。這就是我們對客戶的承諾。其次，長期以來，我們創造了真正有價值的工具，並與我們的客戶和我們自己分享了這種價值。我認為我們在雙方都做得很好。既然我們面臨著這些不同尋常的成本壓力，我認為與客戶進行討論是公平的。但工作 1 和工作 2 是讓我們的產品按時批量發貨，同時為客戶創造價值。但我認為我們可以進行這種類型的對話。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

Bob, I just wanted to clarify and be crystal clear. So you said you saw through the year, you could grow by increasing mid-single digits. Do I read that as the actual percentage of sequential growth as we go through the year goes up every quarter? So the sequential growth is actually accelerating itself through the year?

鮑勃，我只是想澄清一下，一目了然。所以你說你看到了這一年，你可以通過增加中個位數來增長。我是否認為這一年的實際連續增長百分比每個季度都在上升？那麼，連續增長實際上是在全年加速嗎？

Yes. It's kind of -- it's roughly [5 7]. And then in the fiscal Q1, we think around 9%. That's semi. And AGS and display are similar type of numbers. So the overall number is pretty close.

是的。有點——大約是 [5 7]。然後在第一財季，我們認為約為 9%。那是半。 AGS 和 display 是類似的數字類型。所以總體數量非常接近。

Got it. That's helpful. And I guess any...

知道了。這很有幫助。我猜任何...

Yes. That's a -- I think that's a fair estimate. We still got to work through issues, but I think it's a good estimate.

是的。這是一個 - 我認為這是一個公平的估計。我們仍然需要解決問題，但我認為這是一個很好的估計。

Got it. And I guess along those lines, like what gives you confidence? Is that just your visibility on how the supply constraints themselves are easing? Like are you shipping, for example, like partially done tools? Or you just have to supply like a final module or something to make it work? Like what gives you the confidence that the supply constraints will actually ease along that trajectory?

知道了。我猜沿著這些思路，比如是什麼給了你信心？這只是您對供應限製本身如何緩解的可見性嗎？例如，您是否在運送部分完成的工具？或者你只需要提供一個最終模塊或其他東西來使它工作？比如是什麼讓你相信供應限制實際上會沿著這條軌跡緩解？

Well, if you look at total material receipts for us in Q1, they were up a good amount, but we didn't get exactly to match of the parts. We -- they were up kind of mid- to high single digits. And if you look at that type of increase in Q2, we think that's similar. But I think we'll have a better match of the parts.

好吧，如果您查看我們在第一季度的總材料收據，它們增加了很多，但我們並沒有完全匹配零件。我們——他們上升了中高個位數。如果你看一下第二季度的這種增長，我們認為這是相似的。但我認為我們會有更好的部分匹配。

If you remember what we said last quarter was there's a lot of stuff we're tracking, but the hotspot is kind of some semi device-type things that are supplied through the distribution channel to our customers. So we think it's a fair estimate of what we could do. It's not internal capacity constraints. It's more some parts in the supply chain, but I think it's a reasonable estimate.

如果您還記得我們上個季度所說的話，我們正在跟踪很多東西，但熱點是通過分銷渠道向我們的客戶提供的一些半設備類型的東西。所以我們認為這是對我們可以做的事情的公平估計。這不是內部容量限制。更多的是供應鏈中的一些部分，但我認為這是一個合理的估計。

Yes. Thanks, Stacy. And then those numbers are right for semi systems. We would say that AGS year-over-year, AGS tends to grow a little bit slower than semi systems. So it's probably just up low double digits. And then display, you already have our view that it's probably up a little bit year-over-year, also depending on the supply chain, but that'll help you with the [5 7], 9% for semi, and that gives you the shape of the rest of the revenue.

是的。謝謝，斯泰西。然後這些數字適用於半系統。我們會說 AGS 年復一年，AGS 的增長往往比半系統慢一點。所以它可能只是低兩位數。然後顯示，您已經有了我們的觀點，即它可能會比去年同期增長一點點，這也取決於供應鏈，但這將幫助您實現 [5 7]，半成品為 9%，這給出了你剩下的收入的形狀。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·皮策。

Congratulations on the solid results. I guess Gary and Bob, the bookings number and the backlog number in the Jan quarter were extremely impressive, but the cynic in me would argue that when your customers can't get what they want, they always order more than they need. And so from your perspective, how do you safeguard against the fact that you and all of your peers are having supply constraints right now? And if I'm your customer, I at the very least better get in line or I might not get what I need to kind of grow supply. How do you kind of safeguard against the dreaded double ordering?

祝賀你取得了堅實的成果。我猜加里和鮑勃，一月季度的預訂數量和積壓數量非常令人印象深刻，但我的憤世嫉俗者會爭辯說，當您的客戶無法得到他們想要的東西時，他們總是訂購比他們需要的更多的東西。因此，從您的角度來看，您如何防範您和您所有的同行現在都面臨供應限制這一事實？如果我是你的客戶，我至少最好排隊，否則我可能無法獲得增加供應所需的東西。你如何防範可怕的雙重訂購？

Well, I'll give you my perspective, and Gary talks to customers a lot, I think he has. So I think, one, if you look at the magnitude of the orders and how much they're growing, it's a pretty big number. So we're not going to be overbuilding inventory or anything. The second thing is if you look at the mix, I think that's what it's doing.

好吧，我會給你我的觀點，加里和客戶談了很多，我想他有。所以我認為，一個，如果你看看訂單的數量以及它們的增長速度，這是一個相當大的數字。所以我們不會過度建立庫存或任何東西。第二件事是，如果你看一下組合，我認為這就是它正在做的事情。

So if you go look at memory -- so I'll give you some data, John. So if you go look at the history of the industry the last 15 years, 20 years, some of the leading indicators of when you overbuild is particularly strong memory is 3 years of a strong memory year: '07, '17 and '18, we're all over 50% in memory. So if you look at it right now, memory was 40% of WFE in 2021 and going down several points in '22. So we look at memory as moderate growth and we don't see double bookings there.

所以如果你去看看記憶——我會給你一些數據，約翰。所以如果你去看看這個行業最近15年、20年的歷史，一些領先指標當你過度建設時記憶力特別強，就是記憶力強的3年：'07、'17和'18，我們的記憶力都超過了 50%。因此，如果您現在查看它，內存在 2021 年佔 WFE 的 40%，並且在 22 年下降了幾個點。因此，我們將內存視為適度增長，並且我們沒有看到那裡的雙重預訂。

Second thing is a leading indicator of whether they're overbooking in the short term, we look at wafer starts and we look at fab utilization. So I said last quarter, fab utilization was at a record at our fiscal Q4. In fact, in Q1, fab utilization is slightly higher, so very high.

第二件事是他們是否在短期內超額預訂的領先指標，我們查看晶圓開工率和晶圓廠利用率。所以我在上個季度說過，晶圓廠利用率在我們的第四財季達到了創紀錄的水平。事實上，在第一季度，晶圓廠利用率略高，非常高。

Thirdly, if you look at wafer starts over the last several years, wafer starts from '16 to '21 in memory, DRAM and NAND were both 19%. That's not a compound rate of growth, that's a total growth from '16 to '21. If you look at 200-millimeter, it's 17%. If you look at where the growth was, it was kind of 300-millimeter stuff, 100% from '16 to '21 in logic and foundry, right, logic/foundry. So now you go, well, so gee-whiz, let's look at logic/foundry.

第三，如果你看一下過去幾年的晶圓開工率，內存、DRAM 和 NAND 的晶圓開工率都是 16 到 21 年的 19%。這不是複合增長率，而是從 16 年到 21 年的總增長率。如果你看 200 毫米，它是 17%。如果你看看增長在哪裡，它是一種 300 毫米的東西，從 16 年到 21 年邏輯和代工，對，邏輯/代工，100%。所以現在你走了，好吧，太棒了，讓我們看看邏輯/代工。

So if you look at TSMC has put long-term spending out -- forecast of $100 billion kind of CapEx, $40 billion, $42 billion in CapEx next -- this year. And we've talked closely to them. I mean they're pretty committed to spend. If you look at Intel, pretty committed to spending and announcing new fabs. We're tracking fabs. Last quarter, we stated a number of 59 shells with $300 billion of -- $335 billion -- $300 billion to $335 billion. That number is up to 68, $365 billion to $385 billion. So if you look at shell counts, you look at growth in starts, you look at fab utilization, and you look at what the foundry/logic guys are committing to, who are a little more predictable and you look at memory mix, it's pretty good. Then you look at ICAPS mix versus trailing edge, right? Because ICAPS historically wasn't too big.

因此，如果你看看台積電已經將長期支出——預計今年的資本支出為 1000 億美元、400 億美元、420 億美元——的資本支出。我們已經與他們進行了密切的交談。我的意思是他們非常願意花錢。如果你看看英特爾，它非常致力於投資和宣布新的晶圓廠。我們正在跟踪晶圓廠。上個季度，我們列出了 59 家空殼公司，價值 3000 億美元 - 3350 億美元 - 3000 億美元至 3350 億美元。這個數字高達 68 個，3650 億美元到 3850 億美元。因此，如果您查看外殼數量，查看啟動增長，查看晶圓廠利用率，查看代工廠/邏輯人員正在致力於什麼，誰更可預測，然後查看內存組合，這很漂亮好的。然後你看看 ICAPS 混合與後沿，對嗎？因為 ICAPS 在歷史上並不算大。

Now ICAPS we define as 10-millimeter above, right? So if you look at that, it used to be pretty moderate because the business model for customers was to roll over tools from leading edge to the trailing edge, and that was enough tools to do trailing edge. But if you look at trailing edge demand, it's through the roof. If you look at the WFE by application base from '21 forward to '26, some of the biggest growth areas are, if you look at its data center, the accelerators, but it's also automobile, IoT, comms and some stuff in phones, particularly sensors. So there's big demand on this ICAPS sensor stuff. So if you look at it, the demand is there. And the funding of that through tools is not there because you don't have enough rolling over from the leading edge because the demand is going up on the trailing edge, right?

現在我們將 ICAPS 定義為 10 毫米以上，對吧？因此，如果您看一下，它過去是相當溫和的，因為客戶的商業模式是將工具從前沿滾動到後沿，而這已經足夠做後沿的工具了。但如果你看看後緣需求，它就已經過時了。如果你從 21 年到 26 年按應用程序群來看 WFE，一些最大的增長領域是，如果你看看它的數據中心，加速器，但它也是汽車、物聯網、通信和手機中的一些東西，特別是傳感器。所以對這種 ICAPS 傳感器的需求很大。因此，如果您看一下，需求就在那裡。而通過工具提供的資金不存在，因為你沒有足夠的從前沿滾動，因為需求在後沿上升，對吧？

So then you look at it and say, well, what is the actual demand? So we said 53% in '21 and '22 for ICAPS. Well, if you drill into 20-nanometer and above, so -- or 10, 14, 16 and look at some of the older stuff, particularly 28, it's gone up as a percentage of WFE from 31% in '20 to 43% in '21 and 44% in '22. So because of 2 factors, demand going up and less tools to roll over to those. So somebody might say, well, gee-whiz, that's overheated. Well, if you look at the rate of increase is declining, right? It went 31%, 43%, 44%. So it's strong, but the rate of increase is declining. So the very long answer, but I gave you data, is I don't think we're overheated right now. We have lots of orders. The mix is the type of mix, it's not crazy mix. Now you can drill into ICAPS in China a little bit. But I think we're pretty good this year and probably next year.

那麼你看著它說，好吧，實際需求是什麼？因此，我們在 21 年和 22 年表示 ICAPS 為 53%。好吧，如果你鑽到 20 納米及以上，那麼 - 或 10、14、16 並查看一些較舊的東西，特別是 28，它佔 WFE 的百分比從 20 年的 31% 上升到 43% 21 年和 22 年 44%。因此，由於 2 個因素，需求上升，而轉向這些的工具更少。所以有人可能會說，哎呀，這太熱了。好吧，如果你看增長率正在下降，對吧？它上升了 31%、43%、44%。所以它很強大，但增長率正在下降。所以很長的答案，但我給了你數據，我不認為我們現在過熱。我們有很多訂單。混合是混合的類型，它不是瘋狂的混合。現在您可以稍微深入了解一下中國的 ICAPS。但我認為我們今年和明年可能都很好。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I just wanted to go back. So in Q4, I think you mentioned you were short by about $300 million or so that you were not able to fulfill. I'm wondering what that impact was in Q1 because when [mobile] applied this 5% sequential growth through Q3, it only captures, I think, $300 million or so of sequential growth. Shouldn't you be growing more than that going into Q3 given the shortfalls you had in Q4 or Q1? Or is this still kind of very supply-constrained number?

我只是想回去。所以在第四季度，我想你提到你短缺大約 3 億美元左右，以至於你無法履行。我想知道第一季度的影響是什麼，因為當 [移動] 在第三季度應用這 5% 的連續增長時，我認為它只獲得了 3 億美元左右的連續增長。鑑於您在第四季度或第一季度的不足，您不應該在第三季度增長更多嗎？或者這仍然是一個非常受供應限制的數字？

It's completely supply constrained. We have more orders than we can ship. If you look at our backlog build, it was $1.3 billion in the quarter, and our backlog growth is pretty substantial in the next couple of quarters. So we are totally supply constrained as everyone is in the industry. I think $300 million was a starting number for what it was in Q4. And I think Q1 could have been more if we weren't supply constrained. And the mix is really good for us in the backlog. It's products like MDP and epi and products like that.

它完全受到供應限制。我們的訂單比我們能運送的多。如果您查看我們的積壓訂單，本季度為 13 億美元，我們的積壓訂單增長在接下來的幾個季度中相當可觀。所以我們完全受到供應限制，因為每個人都在這個行業。我認為 3 億美元是第四季度的起始數字。而且我認為如果我們沒有供應受限，第一季度可能會更多。在積壓工作中，這種混合對我們來說真的很好。它是MDP和epi之類的產品以及類似的產品。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar of Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Krish Sankar。

Bob, I just wanted to touch base again on the supply constraint. The semi industry has been constrained for a while, but you and your equipment peers have been experiencing it for a few quarters now. And it seems like now you're talking not just to your suppliers, but their suppliers and also a few levels below that, and some of whom might end up being direct customers as well. So I'm kind of curious, has that level of depth in your supply chain giving you better insight into when these issues could abate? And is that what is informing your mid-single-digit sequential growth for the next few quarters in semis?

鮑勃，我只是想再次談談供應限制。半導體行業受限制已有一段時間，但您和您的設備同行已經經歷了幾個季度。現在看來，您不僅在與您的供應商交談，還與他們的供應商以及低於此水平的幾個級別交談，其中一些人最終也可能成為直接客戶。所以我有點好奇，您的供應鏈中的這種深度是否能讓您更好地了解這些問題何時可以緩解？這就是你在接下來的幾個季度中實現中個位數連續增長的原因嗎？

Yes. I'll give you some more color than yes. So we buy -- an average tool has got about 5,000 discrete parts for us. And then those parts have many subcomponents down to our level of suppliers. And so some of our suppliers run MRP, some of them run build to stock, stuff like that. So our historical visibility today builds a material and their supply chain was limited. We've gotten into a lot more depth to understand our suppliers, suppliers, suppliers, which goes back to our customers. It's kind of a circuitous route. And at many times, they get their parts from our customers through distributors, not directly from our customers.

是的。我會給你一些比是更多的顏色。所以我們購買——一個平均工具為我們提供了大約 5,000 個離散零件。然後這些零件有許多子組件，直到我們的供應商級別。所以我們的一些供應商運行 MRP，其中一些運行按庫存生產，諸如此類。所以我們今天的歷史知名度建立了一種材料，他們的供應鍊是有限的。我們已經更深入地了解我們的供應商，供應商，供應商，這可以追溯到我們的客戶。這是一條迂迴的路線。很多時候，他們通過分銷商從我們的客戶那裡獲得零件，而不是直接從我們的客戶那裡獲得。

So as we have gotten visibility into this, we've gotten a much more in-depth understanding of the choke points and ways to manage this tactically and, frankly, long term strategically. So I think our visibility is a lot better. Our management [area] is getting incrementally better every quarter. And how we think about it strategically long term, I think, is a very big benefit to the company.

因此，當我們對此有所了解時，我們對阻塞點以及從戰術上以及坦率地說是長期戰略上管理這一點的方法有了更深入的了解。所以我認為我們的知名度要好得多。我們的管理[區域]每個季度都在逐步改善。我認為，我們如何從戰略上長期考慮它對公司來說是一個非常大的好處。

So yes, we got, again, better visibility. I think we're tactically managing better. We're not out of the woods yet, but I think there's going to be long-term benefits to the company in terms of our depth of understanding.

所以，是的，我們再次獲得了更好的能見度。我認為我們在戰術上管理得更好。我們還沒有走出困境，但我認為就我們的理解深度而言，這將為公司帶來長期利益。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, in your prepared remarks, you talked about some wins in the etch market in areas where you historically didn't compete all that much. You talked about advanced nodes across foundry and logic. You also talked about inspection and metrology and how you've done well there on a trailing 12-month basis and the outlook into '22. When you think about those wins and the momentum you have, how should we think about your overall WFE market share in '22? I realize in the near term, you're still supply constrained. But once supply eases, should we expect you guys to outperform the market this year and perhaps into '23?

加里，在你準備好的評論中，你談到了蝕刻市場在你歷史上沒有那麼多競爭的領域的一些勝利。您談到了跨代工廠和邏輯的高級節點。您還談到了檢驗和計量，以及您在過去 12 個月內的表現如何以及對 22 年的展望。當您考慮這些勝利和您擁有的動力時，我們應該如何考慮您在 22 年的整體 WFE 市場份額？我意識到在短期內，你仍然受到供應限制。但是一旦供應減少，我們是否應該期待你們今年的表現優於市場，甚至可能到 23 年？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Toshiya. No question that the areas that you mentioned, etch, PDC, are significant opportunities for us both now and going forward. I'd say the biggest thing for us is capturing the inflections. We talked about gate-all-around, wiring. We mentioned a few months ago bringing a new tool to market, 7 different technologies and an integrated platform to lower wiring resistance by 50%. And that one platform -- combined platform is worth billions of dollars. So you've got the transistor to process the data, wiring to connect the data, all of the technologies associated with those inflections. We gave some examples around capacitor scaling in DRAM, the CMOS logic also, inflection in memory. All of those inflections are really, really great opportunities for Applied.

是的。謝謝你的問題，Toshiya。毫無疑問，您提到的蝕刻、PDC 領域對我們現在和未來來說都是重要的機會。我想說對我們來說最重要的是捕捉變化。我們談到了門環，佈線。幾個月前，我們提到將一種新工具、7 種不同技術和一個集成平台推向市場，以將佈線電阻降低 50%。而那個平台——聯合平台價值數十億美元。所以你有晶體管來處理數據，連線來連接數據，所有與這些變化相關的技術。我們給出了一些關於 DRAM 中的電容器縮放、CMOS 邏輯以及內存中的拐點的示例。所有這些變化對 Applied 來說都是非常非常好的機會。

Really, the unique thing for us when you look at whether it's the leading logic, ICAPS, memory, packaging is another one where we have over 50% share of our served markets, we have very deep visibility into all of those inflections. And it's really about creating materials to enable the electrical performance, shaping those structures, modifying the materials, analyzing to really drive the T in the PPACt for our customers. We're in really -- we've never been in a better position in any of those different areas.

確實，當您查看領先邏輯、ICAPS、內存、包裝時，對我們來說獨特的事情是我們擁有超過 50% 的服務市場份額的另一個，我們對所有這些變化都有非常深入的了解。這實際上是關於創造材料以實現電氣性能，塑造這些結構，修改材料，分析以真正為我們的客戶推動 PPACt 中的 T。我們真的處於 - 我們在這些不同領域的任何一個方面都處於前所未有的境地。

In the specific products you mentioned, in etch, certainly, that's been a really great growth platform for us. The Sym3 etcher has significant technical advantages, higher conductance with a larger chamber volume, unique materials on our chamber wall so we can provide better defects and better yield. And again, really, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, not only are we doing really well in memory there, but we're gaining significant share, double-digit share at all the leading foundry/logic customers.

在您提到的特定產品中，當然，在蝕刻中，這對我們來說是一個非常好的增長平台。 Sym3 蝕刻機具有顯著的技術優勢、更高的電導率和更大的腔室體積、我們腔室壁上的獨特材料，因此我們可以提供更好的缺陷和更好的良率。再說一次，真的，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們不僅在內存方面做得很好，而且我們在所有領先的代工/邏輯客戶中獲得了可觀的份額，兩位數的份額。

PDC, that was another one that you mentioned, really tremendous growth in PDC, 68% in terms of the overall revenue growth. A really significant position in e-beam and -- or e-beam overall, the review, inspection, measurement where we doubled in 2021. We have significant leadership there. In '22, we'll have significant growth not only in e-beam, but even faster growth in optical wafer inspection.

PDC，那是你提到的另一個，PDC 的增長非常巨大，就整體收入增長而言，增長了 68%。在電子束和 - 或整體電子束中，我們在 2021 年翻倍的審查、檢查、測量中處於非常重要的地位。我們在那裡擁有重要的領導地位。在 22 年，我們不僅在電子束方面有顯著增長，而且在光學晶圓檢測方面也有更快的增長。

So I would say on the unit processes, we're in a really great position. And really, what I'm most excited about is our ability to capture these big inflections that I talked about in the prepared remarks. Relative to what you see in the revenue growth, and Bob mentioned that earlier, you just can't see it because we can't ship it. And also what Bob talked about earlier was that our backlog, we're booking into 2023, especially in some of our leadership areas. Bob mentioned our metals for wiring. And again, big inflections in wiring where Applied has tremendous leadership. epi, implant, that's another one that will grow significantly for us in 2022. So yes, I -- really, we've never been in a better position, Toshiya, than where we are right now.

所以我會說，在單元流程方面，我們處於非常好的位置。真的，我最興奮的是我們能夠捕捉到我在準備好的評論中談到的這些重大變化。相對於您在收入增長中看到的，Bob 之前提到過，您只是看不到它，因為我們無法發貨。 Bob 之前談到的還有我們的積壓工作，我們預定到 2023 年，尤其是在我們的一些領導領域。 Bob 提到了我們用於佈線的金屬。再一次，應用材料在佈線方面具有巨大的領導力。 Epi，植入物，這是另一個將在 2022 年對我們顯著增長的產品。所以，是的，我 - 真的，我們從未處於比現在更好的位置，Toshiya。

The biggest challenge for us right now is really to close that demand-supply gap.

我們現在面臨的最大挑戰是真正縮小供需差距。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

I assume that the team is placing orders for both subsystems, parts and chips basically through the entirety of this year just given the extended lead times with your suppliers. And I assume that you guys have good visibility as to what those suppliers can ship against your orders. So if you put all of that together, can the team meet its forward backlog and forecasted customer shipment requirements for this year? Or do you think that there's a likelihood that you exit this calendar year with your shipments below your customers' demand requirements? In other words, is the 2022 WFE of $100 billion for you and peers below what your customers require? And if so, like what do you think is the true 2022 equipment demand profile?

我假設團隊在今年全年基本上都在為子系統、零件和芯片下訂單，只是考慮到與供應商的交貨時間延長。而且我假設你們對這些供應商可以根據您的訂單發貨的內容有很好的了解。因此，如果您將所有這些放在一起，團隊能否滿足其今年的前瞻性積壓和預測的客戶出貨需求？或者您是否認為您在本日曆年的出貨量可能低於客戶的需求要求？換句話說，2022 年您和同行的 1000 億美元 WFE 是否低於您的客戶要求？如果是這樣，您認為真正的 2022 年設備需求情況如何？

Sure. Well, you've got a couple of questions in there, Harlan. Mechanically, what we do; two, the visibility; and three, what do we think unconstrained demand is in '22. So if you think about how we do it, we send signals to the supply chain through MRP. And they say they can meet or not meet. Frankly, they are struggling to understand what they can meet more than a quarter or 2 out because it's their suppliers, right? So I think visibility is kind of gray. So we mechanically do it, but nobody is sure, right?

當然。嗯，你有幾個問題，哈倫。機械地，我們做什麼；二、能見度；第三，我們認為 22 年不受約束的需求是什麼。因此，如果您考慮一下我們是如何做到的，我們會通過 MRP 向供應鏈發送信號。他們說他們可以見面或不見面。坦率地說，他們很難理解他們能在四分之一或 2 分之內遇到什麼，因為這是他們的供應商，對吧？所以我認為能見度有點灰。所以我們機械地這樣做，但沒有人確定，對吧？

The second thing is -- but we see improvement, right? The second thing is what do we think unconstrained demand is? I think the tactical question you asked, too, could we go out of the year with demand still north of supply? Yes, we could. We're into '23. So I think our backlog probably grows throughout our fiscal year.

第二件事是——但我們看到了進步，對吧？第二件事是我們認為不受約束的需求是什麼？我認為你問的戰術問題也是，我們能否在需求仍然供不應求的情況下度過這一年？是的，我們可以。我們進入了 23 年。所以我認為我們的積壓工作可能會在整個財政年度增長。

If you go look at unconstrained demand, I think WFE, $100 billion is defined as what we ship for the industry. And you see our competitors are also constrained this year, and they're booking into '23. I think unconstrained demand is several billion more than $100 billion. I think it's less than $110 billion, but it's more than $100 billion.

如果你看看不受限制的需求，我認為 WFE，1000 億美元被定義為我們為該行業提供的產品。而且您會看到我們的競爭對手今年也受到限制，他們正在預訂 23 年。我認為不受限制的需求比 1000 億美元多出幾十億美元。我認為它不到 1100 億美元，但超過 1000 億美元。

Our next question comes from Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

You had mentioned that you're opening a new logistics center. I was wondering if you could help us understand, does that give you added capacity? Or does that also help on the cost efficiency side? And then are there some start-up costs that we should be thinking about that are embedded in this quarter's gross margin guidance?

你提到你正在開設一個新的物流中心。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們理解，這是否會增加您的容量？或者這對成本效率也有幫助？然後是否有一些我們應該考慮的啟動成本包含在本季度的毛利率指導中？

That mostly helps efficiency of shipping, receiving, moving things around. It doesn't do much to our costs because our volumes are up, so the cost that we absorb into the burden. And so as a percentage of cost, it doesn't have much impact. We probably, frankly, will do further expansions in the next year or 2. But I don't think it hurts our cost, helps our -- affect us in efficiency.

這主要有助於提高運輸、接收和移動物品的效率。它對我們的成本沒有太大影響，因為我們的產量增加了，所以我們吸收了負擔的成本。因此，作為成本的百分比，它沒有太大影響。坦率地說，我們可能會在未來一兩年內進行進一步的擴張。但我認為這不會損害我們的成本，幫助我們 - 影響我們的效率。

Yes. And Bob, just a follow-up. So what do you think gross margin does between Q2 and the end of the year? And is it impacted at all by that buildup?

是的。和鮑勃，只是一個後續行動。那麼你認為第二季度和年底之間的毛利率是多少？它是否受到這種積累的影響？

I think gross margins probably go up about half a point from the Q2 guide to Q4. And I think what we just mentioned doesn't have really any impact.

我認為從第二季度到第四季度的毛利率可能會上升大約半個百分點。我認為我們剛才提到的並沒有真正的影響。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

I have a question just on the shape of the year in terms of WFE and sort of how to think about -- Gary, you talked about WFE intensity. And the question really is how much semiconductor revenue can this WFE backstop? So if you take everyone's reporting, and they've sort of commented on Q2 as well, it seems like we're doing about $45 billion here in the first half and maybe $55 billion in the back half, something like that to get you to a $100 billion number. And I think in the past, Gary, you talked about 14% WFE intensity. So that would have to support like $800 billion in semiconductor revenue. And this year, if we're lucky, we're going to be at kind of $650 billion. So I'm just wondering if you agree with all that math and sort of how you think about maybe how far out in front of semi revenue WFE is.

我有一個關於 WFE 的年度形式以及如何思考的問題——Gary，你談到了 WFE 的強度。真正的問題是這個 WFE 可以支持多少半導體收入？因此，如果您查看每個人的報告，並且他們也對第二季度發表了評論，那麼看起來我們上半年的收入約為 450 億美元，後半部分可能為 550 億美元，類似的事情可以讓您了解一個1000億美元的數字。我認為過去，加里，你談到了 14% 的 WFE 強度。因此，這必須支持大約 8000 億美元的半導體收入。今年，如果幸運的話，我們將達到 6500 億美元。所以我只是想知道你是否同意所有這些數學以及你如何看待半收入 WFE 可能還有多遠的想法。

Well, yes, thanks for the question, Tim. In terms of WFE or the capital intensity, the number is definitely higher than 14%. If you look at all of these big inflections that the customers are ramping, the capital intensity is probably around 18%, I would guess, right now but definitely higher than the 14% number. I'll let Bob come in, in here in just a second. But just one example is in wiring resistance where that really is one of the biggest areas of focus for all of the foundry/logic customers. If you look at back-end interconnect steps from 5-nanometer to 3-nanometer, they're increasing by about 2x.

嗯，是的，謝謝你的問題，蒂姆。就WFE或資本密集度而言，這個數字肯定高於14%。如果您查看客戶正在增加的所有這些重大變化，我猜現在資本密集度可能在 18% 左右，但絕對高於 14% 的數字。我會讓鮑勃進來，等一下。但只有一個例子是佈線電阻，這確實是所有代工廠/邏輯客戶最關注的領域之一。如果您查看從 5 納米到 3 納米的後端互連步驟，它們將增加約 2 倍。

Now the other thing that's happening -- and by the way, it's also increasing in not only foundry/logic, but also in memory. So that -- again, that's just an example. To get that 50% reduction in wiring resistance, it's pretty complex. That complexity also impacts the output of the system. So not only are you seeing step -- steps increase, but you're also seeing a reduction in output. And then certainly for Applied, our metal deposition products where we have a very, very high share, that's an example of a really significant driver for us and one of the factors on why we're booking into 2023 for those products.

現在正在發生的另一件事——順便說一句，它不僅在代工廠/邏輯方面也在增加，而且在內存方面也有所增加。所以——再一次，這只是一個例子。要使佈線電阻減少 50%，這非常複雜。這種複雜性也會影響系統的輸出。因此，您不僅看到步數增加，而且您還看到輸出減少。當然，對於 Applied 來說，我們擁有非常非常高份額的金屬沉積產品，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的驅動因素，也是我們為什麼要在 2023 年預訂這些產品的因素之一。

And Bob, I don't know if you want to add any more color.

鮑勃，我不知道你是否想添加更多顏色。

Sure. It's a good question, Tim. I think the 14%, 15% is running a little higher. I think sustainably, you're at a good 15%. If you look at the trend lines and just split it out, WFE intensity, just WFE divided by customers' revenues. If you look at foundry/logic, DRAM and NAND, foundry/logic is the most, and it's trending up for a couple of reasons, leading edge and because of there's not enough tools for the trailing edge. So the revenue dollars take more WFE. And you can sort of see customers talking about that, too. And you see customers like TI who haven't spent in years having to add trailing capacity. So the CapEx as a percentage of WFE of revenue is trending up.

當然。這是個好問題，蒂姆。我認為 14% 和 15% 的運行率要高一些。我認為可持續地，你的比例是 15%。如果您查看趨勢線並將其拆分出來，WFE 強度，即 WFE 除以客戶收入。如果您查看代工廠/邏輯、DRAM 和 NAND，代工廠/邏輯是最多的，並且由於幾個原因而呈上升趨勢，領先優勢和因為沒有足夠的工具用於後沿。因此，收入美元需要更多的 WFE。你也可以看到客戶在談論這個。而且您會看到像 TI 這樣的客戶，他們已經多年沒有花費增加拖曳容量了。因此，資本支出佔 WFE 收入的百分比呈上升趨勢。

If you do a rough cut and you think with this foundry/logic mix with more ICAPS, with more greenfields and technological inflections around 3D and gate-all-around, which will drive a little more spending, I think 15% is kind of the new normal, frankly.

如果你做一個粗略的削減，你認為這個代工/邏輯混合有更多的 ICAPS，有更多的綠地和圍繞 3D 和門環的技術變化，這將推動更多的支出，我認為 15% 是一種坦率地說，新常態。

If you look at electronics spending in 2025, it's about $780 billion. So if you take 15% of that, you're about $117 billion WFE in '25. So I think kind of sustainable growth rate is high single digits for WFE, and it's driven partly -- and half of this has got a capital intensity, half is growth in wafer starts. And if you drive the capital intensity at 50%, I think the numbers all kind of work to high single-digits sustainable cross-cycle growth rate for WFE.

如果你看一下 2025 年的電子產品支出，大約是 7800 億美元。因此，如果您佔其中的 15%，那麼您在 25 年的 WFE 約為 1170 億美元。因此，我認為 WFE 的可持續增長率是高個位數，這部分是受驅動的——其中一半有資本密集度，一半是晶圓開工的增長。如果你將資本密集度提高到 50%，我認為這些數字都適用於 WFE 的高個位數可持續跨週期增長率。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

I wonder if you could talk about the nature of the supply constraints a little bit. Last quarter, you talked about it being mostly programmable logic. Have the challenges broadened out from there? And I guess how is it that there's so much visibility that this is going to continue to be constrained through the end of the year? Like shouldn't -- I would think you're the highest utility user of a lot of these chips. Is it possible that you could get -- you could sort of get -- move up in the queue and get these products before the end of the year?

我想知道你是否可以談談供應限制的性質。上個季度，您談到它主要是可編程邏輯。挑戰是否從那裡擴大了？而且我猜怎麼會有這麼多能見度，以至於到今年年底這將繼續受到限制？不應該——我認為你是許多這些芯片的最高效用用戶。你有沒有可能得到——你可以得到——在今年年底之前排隊並獲得這些產品？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. I'm living this every single day relative to going deep in the supply chain with all of the components that are constraining our output. I really think the guidance we've given, Bob talked about relative to quarter-to-quarter improvement, is really in the ZIP code of where we're going to land. We definitely have much, much deeper visibility, even then we had -- we were on this call a quarter ago. As Bob talked about, from a chip perspective, in a lot of cases, these chips are buried down in components. They come from our customers through distributors, and they really don't know the end destination for those chips.

是的。謝謝，喬。相對於深入供應鏈以及限制我們產出的所有組件，我每天都過著這樣的生活。我真的認為我們給出的指導，鮑勃談到的關於季度到季度的改進，實際上是在我們要去的地方的郵政編碼中。我們肯定有很多、更深的可見性，即使在那時我們也有——我們在一個季度前就參加了這個電話會議。正如 Bob 所說，從芯片的角度來看，在很多情況下，這些芯片都被埋在了組件中。它們來自我們的客戶通過經銷商，他們真的不知道這些芯片的最終目的地。

As they learn that where the constraints are, they've certainly responded in helping to resolve those issues. But there are just a number of those different constraints. I wouldn't say it's only chips. There are also other areas of the industry. I mentioned again in our metal deposition products where the -- really the demand has just went up so much higher than where they were.

當他們了解到限制在哪裡時，他們肯定會做出回應，幫助解決這些問題。但是只有一些不同的限制。我不會說它只是芯片。該行業還有其他領域。我在我們的金屬沉積產品中再次提到 - 需求真的比以前高得多。

There are other components that are also constraining us. But I think that we do have much deeper visibility. And what Bob said earlier, I think, is also true. We will come out of this stronger. I think there's no question we'll have better visibility. We have very -- we'll have deeper relationships with our suppliers. So again -- but I think from a ZIP code standpoint, the ballpark of what Bob talked about in terms of the incremental growth quarter-on-quarter is about right. Again, it may not be exactly those numbers, but that's really the relative trajectory.

還有其他一些因素也在限制我們。但我認為我們確實有更深層次的能見度。我認為鮑勃之前所說的也是正確的。我們會變得更強大。我認為毫無疑問我們會有更好的能見度。我們非常 - 我們將與我們的供應商建立更深層次的關係。再說一次——但我認為從郵政編碼的角度來看，鮑勃談到的季度環比增長的大致情況是正確的。同樣，它可能不完全是這些數字，但這確實是相對軌跡。

Our next question comes from Sidney Ho of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

My question is on the memory side of the WFE. I think you guys reiterated your view that memory WFE will grow but less than foundry and logic. But based on some of the comments you had earlier, you're looking at the kind of low teens growth rate for memory. Just curious, has your view changed much given the memory market seems to have improved in the past 3 months? Or they are so supply constraint that you can't really service the upside?

我的問題是關於 WFE 的內存方面的。我認為你們重申了您的觀點，即內存 WFE 會增長，但會低於代工和邏輯。但是根據您之前的一些評論，您正在研究青少年記憶的低增長率。只是好奇，鑑於過去 3 個月內存市場似乎有所改善，您的看法是否發生了很大變化？或者它們是如此的供應限制，以至於你不能真正服務於上行空間？

And maybe just one more. I think last quarter, you talked about the NAND side is up but the DRAM is down. Is there any update to that as well?

也許只有一個。我認為上個季度，您談到 NAND 方面上漲但 DRAM 下跌。是否也有任何更新？

Sure. Good question, Sidney. I think that there's 2 reference points for our view of DRAM, NAND growth, foundry/logic and the mix. And I think our view has changed a little bit since last quarter. I think last quarter, our outlook for '22, we were probably a little low on outlook for China, and we're probably a little low on DRAM in particular. So if you look at our reference point, we now believe that in a constrained environment, which is kind of the $100 billion number, we think that DRAM and NAND are kind of flattish from '21, maybe down tiny bit, but kind of flattish. And if you look at foundry/logic, that's the biggest growth, and we think that increases from 60% to several points higher than that in terms of mix in a $100 billion environment.

當然。好問題，西德尼。我認為我們對 DRAM、NAND 增長、代工/邏輯和混合的看法有兩個參考點。我認為我們的觀點自上個季度以來發生了一些變化。我認為上個季度，我們對 22 年的展望，我們對中國的展望可能有點低，尤其是 DRAM 可能有點低。因此，如果您看一下我們的參考點，我們現在認為，在一個 1000 億美元左右的受限環境中，我們認為 DRAM 和 NAND 從 21 年開始有點平淡，可能會下降一點點，但有點平淡.如果你看一下代工/邏輯，這是最大的增長，我們認為這比 1000 億美元環境中的混合增長從 60% 增加到幾個點。

So number one, I think we're more positive on DRAM and NAND, DRAM particularly than we were last quarter. And we are more positive on overall WFE in '22 than we were last quarter. I think we still remain positive on foundry, but DRAM probably had the biggest delta on our view from last quarter.

所以第一，我認為我們對 DRAM 和 NAND，尤其是 DRAM 比上個季度更加樂觀。與上一季度相比，我們對 22 年的整體 WFE 更加樂觀。我認為我們仍然對代工持樂觀態度，但與上個季度相比，我們認為 DRAM 的變化可能最大。

And then in an unconstrained -- and I don't think they're growing too fast, frankly. If you look at fab utilization by memory and DRAM, it's pretty darn good. So I think they're okay. And I think it's a little more second half weighted.

然後在不受約束的情況下——坦率地說，我認為它們的增長速度不會太快。如果您查看內存和 DRAM 的晶圓廠利用率，這非常好。所以我覺得他們沒問題。我認為下半場的權重更大一些。

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Actually, couple of follow-ups. Bob, you were making references, I think it was the trading niche of ICAPS. You were highlighting 43% of the WFE mix in '21 and 44% in '22. Was that -- did you mean to imply that trading niche or entire ICAPS as a percentage of WFE?

實際上，有幾個後續行動。 Bob，你在做參考，我認為這是 ICAPS 的交易領域。您在 21 年強調了 43% 的 WFE 組合，在 22 年強調了 44%。那是-您的意思是暗示交易利基市場或整個ICAPS佔WFE的百分比嗎？

What were the 2 choices, again, Mehdi?

再次，Mehdi 的 2 個選擇是什麼？

You highlighted 31% mix for 2020, 43% for '21 and 44% for '22. I'm just trying to understand what you were referring to. What are those mixes?

您強調了 2020 年的 31%、21 年的 43% 和 22 年的 44%。我只是想理解你指的是什麼。那些混合物是什麼？

All right. So what we did is we broke down ICAPS a little bit. We define ICAPS as everything, except the leading node. So that's 10-millimeter and above, okay? But then I drove into it some more, and I said, I want to look at 20-nanometer and above, including 200-millimeter stuff because if you look at the last 3 years, the sales on those have grown. Now where you particularly had growth is 28-nanometer stuff. So the percentage of foundry and logic that was 20-nanometer and above in 2020 in the WFE numbers was 31%. And then our revenue mix for us for foundry/logic, pretty similar, too. We had 43% for 2021 and 44% for '22. And where you see the biggest growth year-on-year is 28-nanometer is up; 45-nanometer is up the strongest; 90-nanometer, not too much. But we went into depth by node by year.

好的。所以我們所做的是我們稍微分解了 ICAPS。我們將 ICAPS 定義為除主要節點之外的所有內容。那是10毫米及以上，好嗎？但後來我又深入了一些，我說，我想看看 20 納米及以上，包括 200 毫米的東西，因為如果你看看過去 3 年，這些產品的銷售額已經增長。現在你特別有增長的是28納米的東西。因此，2020 年 WFE 數字中 20 納米及以上的代工和邏輯的百分比為 31%。然後我們的代工/邏輯收入組合也非常相似。 2021 年我們有 43% 和 22 年有 44%。你看到同比增長最大的地方是 28 納米。 45納米最強； 90納米，不算太多。但我們逐年逐節點深入。

So our conclusion is -- so the other thing that's interesting, Mehdi, was it's gone up. The rate of acceleration has diminished somewhat. And then if you look at a curve in the out-years for ICAPS, leading edge, DRAM and NAND and their share in growing of WFE, you see ICAPS growing in absolute volume. So what also you have to think about is where do the ICAPS tools come from? Not only are the number of devices coming, but where did they get the equipment for that? So they used to take that equipment and roll it over from the leading edge.

所以我們的結論是 - 另一件有趣的事情，Mehdi，是它上升了。加速的速度有所降低。然後，如果您查看 ICAPS、前沿、DRAM 和 NAND 以及它們在 WFE 增長中的份額的曲線，您會看到 ICAPS 的絕對數量在增長。那麼您還需要考慮的是 ICAPS 工具從何而來？不僅設備數量即將到來，而且他們從哪裡獲得設備？所以他們過去常常把那個設備從前沿翻過來。

So let's make up an example. So in the leading edge, you might run it for a couple of years, 2 nodes, and you might roll 90% of the equipment forward to the next node and then 10% is for reuse so some gets left behind. But if ICAPS, trailing edge isn't growing much, you have most of your equipment for the trailing edge fully depreciated to use on the trailing edge. But an incremental growth in ICAPS, they believe your ICAPS grows 2x. Your capital equipment requirements for it goes up like 10x, relatively speaking, because you don't have that much equipment rolling over from the leading edge. So the WFE spend on ICAPS is driven by not just growth in ICAPS but the availability of tools to roll into it, they generally have to buy new.

所以讓我們舉個例子。因此，在前沿，你可能會運行幾年，2 個節點，你可能會將 90% 的設備向前滾動到下一個節點，然後 10% 用於重複使用，所以有些被拋在後面。但是，如果 ICAPS，後緣增長不多，那麼您的大部分後緣設備都已完全折舊，可以在後緣上使用。但是 ICAPS 的增量增長，他們相信你的 ICAPS 增長了 2 倍。相對而言，您對它的資本設備要求增加了 10 倍，因為您沒有那麼多設備從前沿滾動。因此，WFE 在 ICAPS 上的支出不僅是由 ICAPS 的增長驅動的，而且是由可用於其中的工具的可用性驅動的，他們通常必須購買新的。

Yes. I would say, Mehdi, just one more thing. That's -- a dynamic over the last few years used to have used tools that were available for ICAPS, that's all gone. And more of that has moved from 200-millimeter to 300-millimeter. So all of those transitions have increased capital intensity for ICAPS.

是的。我想說，Mehdi，還有一件事。那是過去幾年的動態，過去幾年一直使用可用於 ICAPS 的工具，現在都消失了。其中更多的已經從 200 毫米變為 300 毫米。因此，所有這些轉變都增加了 ICAPS 的資本密集度。

Great. If I may have just a quick follow-up. And thanks so much for the all the insights, it's very helpful. If I were to think about these mixes, Bob, you referenced, I think the majority of this is actually being installed in China. And we're dealing with the situation that for most of the OEMs, China has become -- domestic China has become more than 1/3. So I'm assuming that the investment in China for 20-nanometer and above for logic and foundry will continue, will sustain regardless of what happens outside of China. Would that be fair?

偉大的。如果我可以快速跟進。非常感謝您提供的所有見解，這非常有幫助。如果我要考慮這些混音，Bob，你提到過，我認為其中大部分實際上是在中國安裝的。我們正在處理的情況是，對於大多數原始設備製造商來說，中國已經成為——中國國內已經超過 1/3。因此，我假設在中國對 20 納米及以上用於邏輯和代工的投資將繼續，無論中國以外發生什麼，都將持續下去。這公平嗎？

Yes. I think that's fair. The other thing you might look at, Mehdi, which is interesting is where is the growth in WFE spend by application. And you've got a pretty big growth in the out-years for automobiles, IoTs, some of the sensors stuff and phones. So I agree, the China stuff will sustain stuff. I agree that the long-term demand is pretty good. I agree that they can't keep growing forever. But I think it's already started to decelerate a little bit in the relative growth rates from '20 to '21, '21 to '22. And you have to look at that availability of tools to roll over from the leading edge when you look at WFE because it's a compounding factor.

是的。我認為這是公平的。您可能會看到的另一件事是 Mehdi，有趣的是 WFE 應用程序支出的增長在哪裡。在汽車、物聯網、一些傳感器和手機的未來幾年裡，你已經有了相當大的增長。所以我同意，中國的東西會維持下去。我同意長期需求是相當不錯的。我同意他們不能永遠保持增長。但我認為從 20 年到 21 年、21 年到 22 年的相對增長率已經開始有所放緩。當您查看 WFE 時，您必須查看從前沿翻轉的工具的可用性，因為它是一個複合因素。

Yes. Thank you, Mehdi. And operator, that's all the time that we have for questions. Bob, would you like to help us close off the call?

是的。謝謝你，邁赫迪。接線員，這就是我們一直在提問的時間。 Bob，你願意幫助我們結束通話嗎？

Sure, Mike. I'll give you my 3-legged stool summary. You all look forward to those. Number one, demand continues to be very strong. We see our business trending up as we proceed through the year, and we believe '23 will be even stronger. Number two, Applied's position is very strong. I'm confident that if we really make progress with our supply chain, we'll be able to demonstrate that we are very much on track to our market share and our gross margin targets. And number three, even in this constrained environment, we're generating record revenue and operating cash flow, which is fueling strong shareholder returns.

當然，邁克。我會給你我的三足凳總結。你們都期待那些。第一，需求仍然非常強勁。隨著這一年的推進，我們看到我們的業務呈上升趨勢，我們相信 '23 會更加強大。第二，Applied 的地位非常強大。我有信心，如果我們真的在供應鏈方面取得進展，我們將能夠證明我們在市場份額和毛利率目標方面的進展非常順利。第三，即使在這種受限的環境中，我們也創造了創紀錄的收入和經營現金流，這推動了強勁的股東回報。

Now Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

現在邁克，讓我們繼續並結束通話。

All right. Thanks, Bob. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 Pacific Time. We'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。謝謝，鮑勃。我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。太平洋時間 5:00 將在我們的網站上重播電話會議。感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。