應用材料 (AMAT) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。 （操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將會議交給公司副總裁麥可‧沙利文先生。請您開始吧，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Bob Halliday, our Chief Financial Officer.

各位下午好，感謝各位參加Applied公司2022財年第一季財報電話會議。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長Gary Dickerson先生，以及我們的財務長Bob Halliday先生。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-K and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的信息，請參閱Applied公司最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K表格和8-K表格。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議也包含非GAAP財務指標。與GAAP指標的調節表可在今天的獲利新聞稿和我們的季度獲利資料中找到，這些資料可在我們網站appliedmaterials.com的投資者關係頁面上查閱。

Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. Applied will hold its next master class on Thursday, April 21, at 9:00 Pacific Time. We'll cover patterning technologies for the chip-making industry, including 2D scaling with EUV lithography, materials-enabled patterning of gate-all-around transistors and 3D patterning control using e-beam technology and AI(x). We hope you'll join our technology experts for presentations and Q&A.

在正式開始之前，我先通知大家一個重要訊息。 Applied 公司將於太平洋時間 4 月 21 日（週四）上午 9 點舉辦下一場大師班。本次大師班將涵蓋晶片製造行業的圖形化技術，包括基於 EUV 光刻的二維微縮技術、基於材料的環柵晶體管圖形化技術以及利用電子束光刻技術和 AI(x) 實現的三維圖形化控制。我們誠摯邀請您參加本次大師班，屆時我們的技術專家將進行精彩的演講並解答您的疑問。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thank you, Mike. This is an unprecedented period for Applied Materials and the semiconductor industry. Demand for semiconductors has never been stronger or broader, and the supply chain's ability to fulfill this growing demand is constrained in the near term.

謝謝你，麥克。對於應用材料公司和半導體產業來說，這是一個前所未有的時期。半導體的需求從未如此強勁和廣泛，而供應鏈在短期內滿足這種不斷增長的需求的能力卻十分有限。

While the supply environment remains challenging, we landed our first fiscal quarter of 2022 towards the high end of our guidance range and delivered our highest-ever quarterly revenues. These results are a testament to the capabilities and commitment of our global team who are executing well and focused on doing everything possible to deliver for our customers.

儘管供應鏈環境依然充滿挑戰，但我們2022財年第一季的業績接近預期範圍的高端，並實現了有史以來最高的季度營收。這些成績充分證明了我們全球團隊的能力和敬業精神，他們高效執行，並專注於竭盡所能為客戶提供優質服務。

The industry clearly has a long way to go before supply catches up with demand. Applied's orders for the quarter were an all-time high, beating our previous record by $0.5 billion. To ensure our own manufacturing capacity is not a limiting factor, we've made and continue to make strategic investments in our global infrastructure. This includes our state-of-the-art logistics service center in Austin, Texas that we're bringing online this month.

顯然，產業在供應趕上需求方面還有很長的路要走。應用材料公司本季的訂單量創歷史新高，比之前的紀錄高出5億美元。為了確保我們自身的生產能力不會成為限制因素，我們已經並將繼續對全球基礎設施進行策略性投資。這其中包括我們位於德克薩斯州奧斯汀的先進物流服務中心，該中心將於本月投入使用。

Like many in the industry, the biggest challenge we face today is the availability of certain silicon components that go into subsystems within our products. We are working closely with our suppliers to find solutions and eliminate bottlenecks. I would like to thank them for their partnership as we collaborate in new ways to overcome near-term headwinds and build a stronger supply chain that better supports the future needs of the industry.

與業內許多企業一樣，我們目前面臨的最大挑戰是產品子系統所需的某些矽元件的供應問題。我們正與供應商緊密合作，尋求解決方案並消除瓶頸。在此，我要感謝他們的支持與合作，我們將攜手探索新的合作方式，克服近期的不利因素，並建立更強大的供應鏈，更好地滿足產業未來的需求。

In today's call, I'll talk about our demand outlook, which is very strong and strengthening. I'll provide our longer-term perspective on the secular trends reshaping the semiconductor industry. And I'll give you some updates on the progress we're making against our strategic goals and how we're positioned to outperform our markets over the coming years. Later in the call, Bob will share his perspective on the state of the industry and our financial outlook.

在今天的電話會議中，我將談談我們強勁且持續增強的需求前景。我也會闡述我們對重塑半導體產業的長期趨勢的看法。此外，我還會向大家報告我們在實現策略目標方面的進展，以及我們如何在未來幾年超越市場表現。稍後，鮑伯將分享他對產業現狀和我們財務前景的看法。

Let me start with market demand. It's clear that wafer fab equipment spending in 2021 was limited by supply, with some unmet demand pushing into 2022. If we look at our Semiconductor Systems revenues from the second quarter of 2021 to the end of Q1 2022 and compare to the prior 12-month period, they were up 43% year-on-year. We think this is a good approximation for industry growth in calendar 2021, which would put WFE in the mid-$80 billion range.

首先，我想談談市場需求。很明顯，2021年晶圓製造設備支出受到供應的限制，部分未滿足的需求延續到了2022年。如果我們查看2021年第二季至2022年第一季末的半導體系統收入，並與前12個月進行比較，會發現年增了43%。我們認為這可以很好地反映2021年全年的產業成長情況，屆時晶圓製造設備（WFE）的市場規模將達到800億美元左右。

Demand is very strong and continues to grow. We believe wafer fab equipment spending could reach $100 billion in 2022. And since we are already close to being sold out for the year, we also have a positive growth outlook for 2023.

市場需求非常強勁，並且持續成長。我們預計2022年晶圓製造設備支出將達到1,000億美元。由於今年的訂單已接近售罄，我們對2023年的成長前景也持樂觀態度。

Within WFE, foundry/logic spending grew faster than memory in 2021, and we see it growing faster than memory again in 2022. We believe foundry/logic made up more than 60% of total WFE investments last year and will remain at these levels or increase as a percentage of the mix over the next several years.

在WFE領域，晶圓代工/邏輯晶片的支出在2021年增長速度超過了記憶體，我們預計2022年其成長速度將再次超過記憶體。我們認為，去年晶圓代工/邏輯晶片的支出佔WFE總投資的60%以上，並且在未來幾年內，這一比例將保持在這一水平或繼續增長。

Innovation at the edge and in the cloud means that foundry/logic demand is broad-based and split relatively evenly between the most advanced nodes and ICAPS customers who serve the IoT, communications, automotive, power electronics and sensors markets.

邊緣和雲端的創新意味著代工/邏輯需求基礎廣泛，並且在最先進的節點和為物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力電子和感測器市場服務的 ICAPS 客戶之間相對均勻地分佈。

It's also important to put this near-term demand outlook in the context of the secular trends, driving longer-term growth and structural changes in the industry. While digital transformation is already reshaping the global economy today, it will take decades to fully play out around the world, and that the foundation of this multitrillion-dollar inflection is advanced silicon. Today, 9 of the top 10 most valuable companies in the world either design or build chips. Eight of the 9 are now designing their own customized silicon in-house, and the other one manufactures a large percentage of the world's chips by value. I think this is a great example of the fundamental role silicon plays in driving the system-level power, performance and cost improvements that will unlock the full potential of digital transformation and the metaverse.

同樣重要的是，要將這種短期需求前景置於推動產業長期成長和結構性變革的長期趨勢背景下進行考察。雖然數位轉型如今已在重塑全球經濟，但其在全球範圍內全面展開仍需數十年時間，而這項數萬億美元變革的基礎正是先進的矽技術。如今，全球市值排名前十的公司中有九家從事晶片設計或製造。其中八家已開始自主設計客製化晶片，而另一家則佔據了全球晶片市場價值的很大一部分份額。我認為這充分體現了矽技術在推動系統級功耗、性能和成本提升方面所發揮的根本性作用，而這些提升將釋放數位轉型和元宇宙的全部潛力。

Back in 2018, we introduced our framework for describing the semiconductor industry's future technology road map. We call this the new PPACt playbook and said it had 5 key elements: new chip architectures like workload-specific ASICs; new 3D structures like gate-all-around transistors, backside power distribution, next-generation 3D NAND and 3D DRAM; new materials in gate, contact and interconnect; new ways to shrink from EUV lithography to advanced patterning; and advanced packaging from 2.5D silicon interposers to 3D chiplets and hybrid bonding.

早在2018年，我們就推出了用於描述半導體產業未來技術路線圖的框架。我們稱之為新的PPACt策略手冊，並指出它包含5個關鍵要素：新型晶片架構，例如針對特定工作負載的ASIC；新型3D結構，例如全環柵晶體管、背面供電、下一代3D NAND和3D DRAM；柵極、觸點和互連的新材料；從EUV光刻到先進圖形化製程的新型縮小尺寸方法；

As the major technology inflections that make up the PPACt playbook take shape, it's clear this future road map is more multifaceted and complex than anything the industry has done before. This increasing complexity has positive implications for Applied Materials. First, we expect capital intensity to remain at the levels we have seen over recent years; and second, Applied's broad capabilities are more valuable because they allow us to address higher order problems for customers and provide them with more complete solutions.

隨著構成PPACt策略的關鍵技術變革逐步成形，很明顯，這一未來發展路線圖比業內以往任何路線圖都更加多元化和複雜。這種日益增長的複雜性對應用材料公司而言具有積極意義。首先，我們預計資本密集度將保持在近年來的水平；其次，應用材料公司廣泛的能力更有價值，因為這使我們能夠為客戶解決更高層次的問題，並為其提供更全面的解決方案。

On top of the opportunities created by the PPACt playbook, major supply chain inflections are underway that are also positive for industry economics. This starts with a shift from just-in-time to a just-in-case philosophy. The most visible example of this is the automotive industry where the major carmakers are quantifying the cost of lost business in 2021 and rapidly changing the way they work with suppliers of their most critical components.

除了PPACt策略帶來的機會之外，供應鏈正在發生重大變革，這對產業經濟也十分有利。這首先體現在從「準時制」理念轉向「以防萬一」理念的轉變。最明顯的例子是汽車產業，各大汽車製造商正在量化2021年業務損失的成本，並迅速改變與關鍵零件供應商的合作方式。

We're also working differently with our customers. They are providing us with longer-term visibility, and we are collaborating more closely on capacity planning.

我們與客戶的合作方式也改變了。他們為我們提供更長期的可視性，我們也在產能規劃上進行更緊密的合作。

In addition, the strategic and economic importance of semiconductors is being recognized at a national level. In the coming years, government support and incentives in the U.S., Europe and Japan will translate into regionalization of supply. As I've highlighted before, these regional supply chains will be more resilient but also less capital-efficient, which is an additional tailwind for us.

此外，半導體產業的戰略和經濟重要性正日益受到各國政府的認可。未來幾年，美國、歐洲和日本政府的支持和激勵措施將推動供應鏈的區域化。正如我之前強調的，這些區域供應鏈將更具韌性，但資本效率也會降低，這對我們來說是一個額外的利多因素。

Overall, our outlook for the next decade is very positive. We expect semiconductor and wafer fab equipment to grow significantly faster than the economy with outsized opportunities for Applied Materials.

整體而言，我們對未來十年的前景非常樂觀。我們預期半導體和晶圓製造設備的成長速度將遠超經濟成長速度，這將為應用材料公司帶來巨大的發展機會。

To be ready for this exciting future, we've aligned our organization and investments around 3 strategic pillars. First, to be the PPACt enablement company and provide the foundation for customers' road maps for power, performance, area, cost and time to market; second, to shift more of our business to subscriptions; and third, to generate incremental free cash flows and profitability from our businesses in adjacent markets.

為了迎接令人興奮的未來，我們圍繞著三大策略支柱調整了組織架構和投資方向。首先，成為PPACt賦能公司，為客戶在功率、性能、面積、成本和上市時間方面的路線圖奠定基礎；其次，將更多業務轉向訂閱模式；第三，從相鄰市場的業務中創造增量自由現金流和盈利能力。

Earlier, I talked about key technology inflections that make up the PPACt playbook: gate-all-around, backside power distribution, 3D NAND, 3D DRAM, new materials in the gate, contact and interconnect and advanced packaging. All of these inflections are primarily enabled by materials engineering, Applied's core strength. And as a result, they grow our total available market. Thanks to our relentless focus on developing differentiated technology, to enable these inflections, we are also in a great position to capture more of that growing TAM.

之前我談到了構成PPACt策略的關鍵技術變革：全方位閘極封裝、背面供電、3D NAND快閃記憶體、3D DRAM、閘極、接點和互連的新材料以及先進封裝。所有這些變革主要得益於材料工程，而材料工程正是應用材料的核心優勢。因此，它們擴大了我們的潛在市場規模。由於我們始終致力於開發差異化技術以推動這些變革，我們也處於有利地位，能夠更好地掌握不斷成長的潛在市場。

For example, in the transition from FinFET to first-generation gate-all-around, our transistor TAM grows by more than $1 billion per 100,000 wafer starts per month. And based on our tool of record positions, we expect to capture the majority of the inflection. We will provide more details about these inflections and how we expect them to play out in our 2022 master classes.

例如，在從FinFET過渡到第一代環柵電晶體的過程中，我們的電晶體市場規模（TAM）每月每增加10萬片晶圓開工量，就會增加超過10億美元。基於我們工具的記錄位置，我們預計將抓住這一轉折點的大部分機會。我們將在2022年的大師班上詳細闡述這些轉折點以及我們預期它們將如何發展。

While current supply constraints mean that we can't fully realize the strength in our business, we are executing very well against our product road map, and there are clear leading indicators of our future growth potential. I'll highlight a few recent examples. In etch, we've recently won multiple tool of record positions at advanced nodes and foundry/logic across all 3 leading-edge customers. This is significant because these wins are in areas we haven't served in the past and demonstrate how our next generation of etch solutions address customers' most challenging applications.

儘管目前的供應限制意味著我們無法充分發揮業務優勢，但我們在產品路線圖的執行方面進展順利，並且有明確的領先指標表明我們未來的成長潛力。我將重點介紹幾個近期案例。在蝕刻領域，我們最近在所有三家領先客戶的先進節點和代工/邏輯晶片製造環節中都贏得了多個指定工具供應商的地位。這意義重大，因為這些成功案例都來自我們過去未曾涉足的領域，並展現了我們新一代蝕刻解決方案如何應對客戶最具挑戰​​性的應用。

In inspection and metrology where we have fewer supply chain constraints, our trailing 12-month revenues were up 68% year-on-year, and our e-beam revenues nearly doubled in that period. We expect to outperform the market again in 2022 with especially strong growth in optical wafer inspection, combined with further extension of our e-beam leadership.

在供應鏈限制較少的檢測和計量領域，我們過去12個月的營收年增了68%，其中電子束檢測收入幾乎翻了一番。我們預計2022年將再次超越市場平均水平，尤其是在光學晶圓檢測領域實現強勁增長，同時進一步鞏固我們在電子束檢測領域的領先地位。

Beyond unit process excellence, Applied is able to combine the industry's broadest technology portfolio and unique ways to create co-optimized and fully integrated solutions. For example, co-optimization of hard mask, deposition and etch is an enabling solution for high aspect ratio structures. Adoption of our co-optimized Draco solution is accelerating and on track to generate an incremental $600 million of revenue this year. And we recently secured our first wins with a new carbon hard mask, deposition and etch solution at a leading memory manufacturer.

除了卓越的單元製程之外，Applied 還能夠整合業界最廣泛的技術組合和獨特的方法，打造協同優化且完全整合的解決方案。例如，硬掩模、沉積和蝕刻的協同優化是實現高深寬比結構的關鍵解決方案。我們協同優化的 Draco 解決方案正在加速推廣，預計今年將帶來 6 億美元的額外收入。此外，我們最近還憑藉全新的碳硬掩模、沉積和蝕刻解決方案，在一家領先的記憶體製造商處斬獲了首批訂單。

Another key component of our technology portfolio is our digital tools that accelerate R&D, technology transfer and ramp, and optimize productivity in high-volume manufacturing. We are engaged with a broad range of customers. In this quarter, we secured a new strategic penetration for R&D acceleration using our AI(x), Actionable Insight Accelerator platform, at a leading customer. As part of this engagement, we will use our unique sensor technology and proprietary machine learning algorithms for rapid process window tuning and process variability reduction.

我們技術組合的另一個關鍵組成部分是我們的數位化工具，這些工具能夠加速研發、技術轉移和量產，並優化大量生產的效率。我們與眾多客戶建立了合作關係。本季度，我們利用AI(x)「可操作洞察加速器」平台，與一家領先客戶達成了一項新的策略合作，旨在加速研發。作為合作的一部分，我們將運用我們獨特的感測器技術和專有的機器學習演算法，實現製程視窗的快速調整和製程變異性的降低。

We're also making progress on our multiyear journey to increase subscription revenues. Within AGS, more than 60% of our parts and service revenue is generated from subscriptions in the form of long-term service agreements. The average tenure of these agreements is now 2.3 years, up from 1.9 years 12 months ago, and the renewal rate is over 90%. In addition, when we look at our combined software business in AGS and semi systems, which are also subscription-based, we expect them to generate more than $300 million of revenue this year.

我們在提升訂閱收入的多年計畫中也取得了進展。在AGS業務中，超過60%的零件和服務收入來自長期服務協議形式的訂閱。這些協議的平均期限目前為2.3年，高於12個月前的1.9年，續約率超過90%。此外，AGS和半導體系統業務的軟體業務也採用訂閱模式，我們預計今年將創造超過3億美元的收入。

Before I hand the call over to Bob, I'll quickly summarize. Applied and our global teams are executing well in a challenging and dynamic environment, and our near-term focus is on doing everything we can to expedite deliveries to our customers. Demand for semiconductors and wafer fab equipment remains strong and continues to grow. There's still a long way to go before supply catches up with demand. Our outlook for 2022 and beyond is very positive as long-term secular trends drive our markets structurally higher.

在把電話交給鮑伯之前，我先簡單總結一下。應用材料公司及其全球團隊在充滿挑戰和瞬息萬變的環境中表現出色，我們近期的重點是盡一切努力加快向客戶交付產品的速度。市場對半導體和晶圓製造設備的需求依然強勁，且持續成長。供應要趕上需求還有很長的路要走。我們對2022年及以後的前景非常樂觀，因為長期趨勢將推動市場結構性成長。

In addition, the major technology inflections that make up the industry's PPACt road map expand Applied's addressable market opportunities, and our broad and differentiated technology portfolio puts us in a great position to capture a larger portion of our served markets in years to come.

此外，構成行業 PPACt 路線圖的主要技術轉折點擴大了應用材料公司可觸及的市場機會，我們廣泛且差異化的技術組合使我們處於有利地位，可以在未來幾年內佔據我們所服務市場更大的份額。

With that, Bob, it's over to you.

鮑勃，接下來就看你的了。

Thanks, Gary. I'd like to begin by thanking our teams and our partners for doing everything they could in a challenging supply chain environment. We still have a lot of work to do to satisfy our customers' needs, and this is job 1 for all of us.

謝謝，加里。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊和合作夥伴，感謝他們在充滿挑戰的供應鏈環境下竭盡全力。我們仍有許多工作要做才能滿足客戶的需求，這是我們所有人的首要任務。

I have 3 main messages for you today. One, demand for Applied's products is very strong and continues to grow. Two, we remain supply chain limited, and we forecast gradual improvement over the course of the year. Three, we expect to grow our revenue and earnings each quarter through the end of the calendar year. And we believe it is increasingly likely that 2023 will be another growth year.

今天我有三個主要訊息要傳達給大家。第一，市場對應用材料公司產品的需求非常強勁，並且持續成長。第二，我們仍面臨供應鏈瓶頸，但預計年內情況將逐漸改善。第三，我們預計到年底，每季的營收和利潤都將成長。而且，我們相信2023年很可能又會是成長之年。

Next, I'll summarize our Q1 results. Then I'll provide details about the demand environment for Applied Materials. And finally, I'll share our guidance for fiscal Q2 and the rate of growth we expect to see throughout the year.

接下來，我將總結我們第一季的業績。然後，我將詳細介紹應用材料公司的市場需求環境。最後，我將分享我們對第二財季的業績展望以及我們預計全年的成長率。

In Q1, we delivered strong year-over-year revenue and earnings growth and exceeded the midpoint of our guidance. The supply chain environment was challenging. Our teams collaborate broadly with partners upstream and downstream of Applied to maximize the supply of components to our manufacturing sites and service locations. This work enabled us to deliver record semiconductor systems revenue, which we grew by 29% year-over-year.

第一季度，我們實現了強勁的年成長，營收和獲利均超出預期中位數。供應鏈環境充滿挑戰。我們的團隊與應用材料公司上下游的合作夥伴廣泛協作，最大限度地保障了製造工廠和服務點的元件供應。正是這些努力，使我們的半導體系統營收創下歷史新高，年增29%。

We grew fastest in foundry/logic year-over-year, and we continue to expect foundry/logic to outgrow WFE in 2022 with strength in both leading edge and ICAPS. From a product perspective in Q1, we generated record quarterly revenue in process control, CVD and CMP, and we achieved our highest-ever DRAM revenue. We also grew non-GAAP operating margin in semi by 280 basis points year-over-year. In AGS, we grew revenue by 14% year-over-year and increased non-GAAP operating margin by 110 basis points. About 3/4 of the AGS' year-over-year growth was in recurring revenue. Our AGS service revenues grew sequentially and year-over-year. We increased our tools under comprehensive service agreement by 13% year-over-year, and our subscription renewal rate was 92%.

我們晶圓代工/邏輯晶片業務同比增長最快，並繼續預期晶圓代工/邏輯晶片業務在2022年將憑藉前沿技術和ICAPS的強勁表現超越晶圓廠前端業務。從產品角度來看，第一季我們在製程控制、CVD和CMP領域均創下季度營收新高，DRAM營收也達到史上最高水準。此外，半導體業務的非GAAP營業利潤率年增280個基點。在自動化、自動化和製造（AGS）業務方面，營收年增14%，非GAAP營業利潤率提升110個基點。 AGS業務較去年同期成長約四分之三來自經常性收入。 AGS服務收入環比和年成長均實現成長。我們根據綜合服務協議提供的工具數量較去年同期成長13%，訂閱續約率達92%。

Our parts business met our expectations but could have been even higher. AGS includes our legacy 200-millimeter equipment revenue, which was below our expectations in Q1 due to supply chain constraints that prevented us from shipping to demand within the quarter. For the fiscal year, we continue to expect AGS to grow in the low double digits, with potential upside depending on the supply chain recovery. In display, we exceeded our revenue goal in Q1 and increased non-GAAP operating margin by 280 basis points year-over-year.

我們的零件業務符合預期，但本可以做得更好。 AGS 包括我們傳統的 200 毫米設備收入，由於供應鏈受限，導致我們無法在第一季滿足市場需求，因此該收入低於預期。本財年，我們仍預期 AGS 將實現兩位數低段成長，並可能根據供應鏈的復甦情況獲得進一步成長。在顯示器業務方面，我們第一季超額完成了營收目標，非 GAAP 營業利潤率年增 280 個基點。

Summarizing Applied's Q1 results on a year-over-year basis. We increased revenue by 21%, non-GAAP gross margin by 140 basis points, non-GAAP operating profit by 270 basis points and non-GAAP EPS by 36%. In addition, we generated record free cash flow and distributed over $2 billion to shareholders, with $1.8 billion in repurchases and $214 million in dividends.

以下概述應用材料公司第一季業績（年比）：營收成長21%，非GAAP毛利率成長140個基點，非GAAP營業利潤成長270個基點，非GAAP每股盈餘成長36%。此外，公司創造了創紀錄的自由現金流，並向股東分配了超過20億美元的資金，其中包括18億美元的股票回購和2.14億美元的股息。

Next, I'll address the impact of the supply environment on our business in the near term. Underlying demand for Applied's technology is very strong and growing. And we believe that as we work through the supply chain constraints, we will demonstrate the progress we're making toward our market share and gross margin targets.

接下來，我將談談供應鏈環境對我們近期業務的影響。市場對應用材料技術的潛在需求非常強勁，而且還在持續成長中。我們相信，隨著我們逐步克服供應鏈瓶頸，我們將展現出在實現市佔率和毛利率目標方面所取得的進展。

Although we don't usually report backlog on a quarterly basis, I'm going to give some further color on today's call to help you understand our confidence. In Q1, our semi systems backlog increased by more than $1.3 billion to a record $8 billion. Moreover, the backlog includes a rich mix of products that are highly enabling to our customers' road maps. What this tells us is that in an unconstrained environment, we would have produced substantially higher revenue and demonstrated a healthy share gain in calendar 2021.

雖然我們通常不按季度公佈積壓訂單情況，但為了幫助大家理解我們的信心，我將在今天的電話會議上進一步闡述。第一季度，我們的半導體系統積壓訂單增加了超過13億美元，達到創紀錄的80億美元。此外，積壓訂單涵蓋了多種產品，這些產品對客戶的路線圖規劃至關重要。這表明，在不受限制的環境下，我們本可以實現更高的營收，並在2021年取得可觀的市佔率成長。

Also, absent the supply chain issues, our gross margin in fiscal 2022 will be very close to the targets in our 2024 financial model. We are laser-focused on improving the supply chain, which will enable us to support our customers and demonstrate the strength of our business.

此外，若不考慮供應鏈問題，我們2022財年的毛利率將非常接近2024年財務模型中的目標。我們正全力以赴改善供應鏈，這將使我們能夠更好地支援客戶，並展現我們業務的實力。

As Gary outlined, we expect the WFE market to grow by over 15% in 2022 to $100 billion or more. Even with the constraints, we expect to outgrow the market in our semi business and carry sizable backlog into 2023.

正如Gary所概述的，我們預計2022年WFE市場將成長超過15%，達到1,000億美元或更多。即使面臨各種限制，我們預期半導體業務的成長速度仍將超過市場整體水平，並將可觀的積壓訂單延續至2023年。

Now I'll share our guidance for Q2. We expect to increase revenue to $6.35 billion, plus or minus $300 million, which is up almost 14% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP EPS in Q2 to be around $1.90, plus or minus $0.15, which is up around 17% year-over-year. Within this outlook, we expect semi systems revenue of around $4.6 billion, up 16% year-over-year; AGS revenue of around $1.35 billion, up 12% year-over-year; and display revenue of around $380 million.

現在我將分享我們對第二季的業績預期。我們預計營收將達到63.5億美元，上下浮動3億美元，年增近14%。我們預計第二季非GAAP每股收益約1.90美元，上下浮動0.15美元，年增約17%。在此預期範圍內，我們預期半導體系統營收約46億美元，較去年同期成長16%；AGS營收約13.5億美元，較去年同期成長12%；顯示器營收約3.8億美元。

Applied's non-GAAP gross margin should decline to around 47% in Q2 as we absorb near-term cost pressures primarily related to expediting shipments to our customers. After Q2, we expect to gradually increase the gross margin by mitigating cost pressures and shipping a richer mix of high-margin products. Non-GAAP OpEx should be around $1.015 billion in Q2, and our non-GAAP tax rate should be around 12%.

由於需要應對近期成本壓力（主要與加快向客戶發貨有關），應用材料公司第二季的非GAAP毛利率預計將下降至47%左右。第二季之後，我們預計將透過緩解成本壓力和增加高利潤率產品的出貨量來逐步提高毛利率。第二季的非GAAP營運支出預計約為10.15億美元，非GAAP稅率預計約為12%。

Looking ahead, we expect we can grow revenues by increasing mid-single-digit percentages each quarter through the end of the calendar year. And based on customer conversations about semiconductor demand and technology inflections, we're increasingly optimistic that 2023 will be another growth year for the industry and especially for Applied.

展望未來，我們預計到年底，每季營收都能實現中等個位數百分比的成長。基於與客戶就半導體需求和技術變革進行的交流，我們越來越樂觀地認為，2023年將是整個產業，尤其是應用半導體公司（Applied）的另一個成長年。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

麥克，現在開始問答環節。

Thanks, Bob. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，鮑伯。 （操作員指令）操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess a question on gross margins, particularly in the current challenging supply environment. You guided at 47% and expectation is for that to grow through the year. Can you speak to what it'll take you to build out greater scale upstream for your key suppliers? What impact that might have on input cost for you and then your ability to pass those down to your customers? And what gives you the confidence that you can get to that 48.5% as part of the target model? And I guess as part of that, if you could frame what your expectations are, when you might be able to hit that type of number?

我想問一個關於毛利率的問題，尤其是在當前充滿挑戰的供應環境下。您之前給出的毛利率預期為47%，並預計全年都會成長。您能否談談為了擴大上游主要供應商的規模，您需要做些什麼？這會對您的投入成本以及您最終將成本降低到客戶手中的能力產生什麼影響？是什麼讓您有信心達到48.5%的目標毛利率？另外，您能否具體說明一下，您預計何時能夠達到這個目標？

Let me take those 6 questions, C.J. So first, what's going on with gross margins? What's the outlook? And what can we do? So what's going on with gross margins? As you know, in Q4 of 2021, we did [48.2%]. The long-term model in 2024, I guess, it is, is 48.5% at $87 billion, 48.8% at $100 billion. We were down 47.3% this quarter. We guide around 47%. We go up half a point [the other year]. There are 2 things that are hitting us. One is cost increases from logistics, inefficient factory ops -- operations like overhead and [burn] absorption, and thirdly, some material cost issues. I'd price those in at 1% to 1.5% on gross margin impact, probably about 1.2% is the middle point. I would say that most of those are transitory, factory absorption, logistics and a bunch of the material cost stuff should get better. So I'd say, over 2/3 of that is kind of transitory.

C.J.，讓我來回答這六個問題。首先，毛利率的情況如何？前景如何？我們能做些什麼？毛利率的情況如何？如您所知，2021年第四季我們的毛利率為48.2%。我猜想，2024年的長期模型預測是：營收870億美元時毛利率為48.5%，營收1,000億美元時毛利率為48.8%。本季我們下降了47.3%。我們預計本季毛利率約為47%。去年我們成長了0.5個百分點。目前有兩個因素對我們造成影響。一是物流成本增加，二是工廠營運效率低──例如管理費用和損耗吸收等營運環節；三是一些原料成本問題。我認為這些因素對毛利率的影響在1%到1.5%之間，中間值可能在1.2%左右。我認為其中大部分問題都是暫時的，工廠產能吸收、物流以及許多原材料成本方面的問題應該會得到改善。所以我覺得，超過三分之二的問題都屬於暫時性的。

The second one is mix. We have a couple of (inaudible). We have very, very strong orders and backlog, particularly in semi. So if we had a higher mix of semi versus non-semi, we help our gross margins. Secondly, if you had a better -- if you look -- we priced out the mix of our semi backlog. So our mix in the semi backlog is very attractive. So if you look at those 2 mix things and you normalize by past backlog levels, well, we could ship. You pick again another 1 to 1.5 points of gross margins. And again, the sweet spot is kind of 1.2. So if you're at [$80 billion, 47%] next quarter, if you could get 1 point to 1.2, you're pretty much on model. You might be above it a little bit actually. So that's the scale of what we're looking at. So we're pretty confident we're on the model trajectory of 48.5% at $87 billion and 48.8% at $100 billion WFE.

第二個因素是產品組合。我們有一些（聽不清楚）。我們的訂單和積壓訂單非常強勁，尤其是在半導體領域。因此，如果我們提高半導體產品與非半導體產品的佔比，就能提高毛利率。其次，如果——如果你仔細觀察——我們已經對半導體體積壓訂單的定價進行了調整。所以我們目前半導體體積壓訂單的佔比非常有吸引力。因此，如果你考慮這兩個產品組合因素，並以過去的積壓訂單水準進行標準化，那麼我們就能實現更高的毛利率。你再舉個例子，毛利率可以再提高1到1.5個百分點。再次強調，最佳點位在1.2左右。所以，如果你下個季度的營收達到800億美元，毛利率達到47%，如果你能將毛利率提高1到1.2個百分點，你就基本上達到了預期目標。實際上，你甚至可能略高於預期。這就是我們目前關注的重點。因此，我們相當有信心，我們正朝著模型軌跡發展，即 WFE 達到 870 億美元時佔 48.5%，達到 1000 億美元時佔比 48.8%。

Secondly, the cost increases, can we do anything to mitigate that and pass it along? With customers, our 3 primary issues are: one, we have to do better on deliveries. Job 1 for us is to ship more tools, get them out the door on time to customers. And that's our commitment to customers. Secondly, for a long time, we have created really valuable tools and shared that value with our customers and ourselves. And I think we've done a good job on both sides. Now that we have these unusual cost pressures, I think it's fair to have that discussion with customers. But job 1 and job 2 is to get our product shipping in volume on time and also to create value for customers. But I think we can have that type of conversation.

其次，成本上漲，我們能否採取任何措施來緩解並轉嫁給客戶？對客戶而言，我們主要面臨三個問題：第一，我們必須提高交付效率。我們的首要任務是交付更多工具，確保按時將產品送到客戶手中。這是我們對客戶的承諾。第二，長期以來，我們一直致力於打造真正有價值的工具，並與客戶和我們自己分享這些價值。我認為我們在雙方都做得很好。如今，我們面臨前所未有的成本壓力，我認為與客戶進行討論是合理的。但我們的首要任務和第二項任務是確保產品按時批量交付，並為客戶創造價值。我相信我們可以就此展開對話。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

Bob, I just wanted to clarify and be crystal clear. So you said you saw through the year, you could grow by increasing mid-single digits. Do I read that as the actual percentage of sequential growth as we go through the year goes up every quarter? So the sequential growth is actually accelerating itself through the year?

鮑勃，我只是想澄清一下，確保你的意思完全正確。你說你預計全年都能實現個位數中段的成長。我的理解是，隨著一年的推進，每季的環比成長率都在上升嗎？也就是說，環比成長率其實是在加速成長？

Yes. It's kind of -- it's roughly [5 7]. And then in the fiscal Q1, we think around 9%. That's semi. And AGS and display are similar type of numbers. So the overall number is pretty close.

是的，大概是－－大概是[5%到7%]。然後，在第一財季，我們估計在9%左右。這是半成品。 AGS和展示業務的數據也差不多。所以總體數字非常接近。

Got it. That's helpful. And I guess any...

明白了，這很有幫助。我想任何…

Yes. That's a -- I think that's a fair estimate. We still got to work through issues, but I think it's a good estimate.

是的，我覺得這個估計比較合理。雖然還有一些問題需要解決，但我認為這個估計已經很好了。

Got it. And I guess along those lines, like what gives you confidence? Is that just your visibility on how the supply constraints themselves are easing? Like are you shipping, for example, like partially done tools? Or you just have to supply like a final module or something to make it work? Like what gives you the confidence that the supply constraints will actually ease along that trajectory?

明白了。我想問的是，是什麼讓你充滿信心？是因為你清楚看到供應限制正在逐步緩解嗎？例如，你們現在是不是只交付部分完成的工具？還是只需要交付最終模組之類的東西就能完成？是什麼讓你確信供應限制真的會按照這個方向緩解？

Well, if you look at total material receipts for us in Q1, they were up a good amount, but we didn't get exactly to match of the parts. We -- they were up kind of mid- to high single digits. And if you look at that type of increase in Q2, we think that's similar. But I think we'll have a better match of the parts.

嗯，如果你看一下我們第一季的物料收貨總量，確實增長了不少，但我們並沒有完全匹配到所需的零件。增幅大概在個位數中高段。如果你看第二季的增幅，我們認為情況也類似。但我相信我們會更好地匹配所需的零件。

If you remember what we said last quarter was there's a lot of stuff we're tracking, but the hotspot is kind of some semi device-type things that are supplied through the distribution channel to our customers. So we think it's a fair estimate of what we could do. It's not internal capacity constraints. It's more some parts in the supply chain, but I think it's a reasonable estimate.

如果你還記得我們上個季度說過的話，我們追蹤了很多東西，但目前的熱點指的是一些半成品設備，這些設備透過分銷管道供應給我們的客戶。所以我們認為這可以合理地估算出我們能做到的事情。這並非內部產能限制，而是供應鏈中的某些環節的問題，但我認為這是一個合理的估算。

Yes. Thanks, Stacy. And then those numbers are right for semi systems. We would say that AGS year-over-year, AGS tends to grow a little bit slower than semi systems. So it's probably just up low double digits. And then display, you already have our view that it's probably up a little bit year-over-year, also depending on the supply chain, but that'll help you with the [5 7], 9% for semi, and that gives you the shape of the rest of the revenue.

是的，謝謝，Stacy。這些數字對於半導體系統來說是正確的。我們認為AGS的年成長速度通常比半導體系統略慢，所以可能只有兩位數的低成長。至於顯示業務，我們已經認為它可能比去年略有增長，這也取決於供應鏈的情況，但這有助於你理解半導體業務的[5 7]，9%的增長，從而讓你了解其餘收入的大致情況。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Congratulations on the solid results. I guess Gary and Bob, the bookings number and the backlog number in the Jan quarter were extremely impressive, but the cynic in me would argue that when your customers can't get what they want, they always order more than they need. And so from your perspective, how do you safeguard against the fact that you and all of your peers are having supply constraints right now? And if I'm your customer, I at the very least better get in line or I might not get what I need to kind of grow supply. How do you kind of safeguard against the dreaded double ordering?

恭喜你們取得如此亮眼的成績。我想，Gary 和 Bob，一月份的預訂量和積壓訂單量確實非常驚人。但我內心深處有個聲音在說，當顧客無法獲得他們想要的產品時，他們總是會訂購超出實際需求的產品。所以，從你們的角度來看，你們是如何應對目前你們和所有同儕都面臨的供應緊張問題的呢？如果我是你們的客戶，我至少最好提前下單，否則我可能無法獲得足夠的庫存來增加供應。你們是如何避免重複訂購這種令人頭痛的問題的呢？

Well, I'll give you my perspective, and Gary talks to customers a lot, I think he has. So I think, one, if you look at the magnitude of the orders and how much they're growing, it's a pretty big number. So we're not going to be overbuilding inventory or anything. The second thing is if you look at the mix, I think that's what it's doing.

好吧，我來說說我的看法。加里經常和客戶交流，我想他確實如此。所以我覺得，第一，如果你看看訂單的規模和成長速度，你會發現這是一個相當大的數字。因此，我們不會過度囤積庫存之類的。第二，如果你看看產品組合，我認為情況就是這樣。

So if you go look at memory -- so I'll give you some data, John. So if you go look at the history of the industry the last 15 years, 20 years, some of the leading indicators of when you overbuild is particularly strong memory is 3 years of a strong memory year: '07, '17 and '18, we're all over 50% in memory. So if you look at it right now, memory was 40% of WFE in 2021 and going down several points in '22. So we look at memory as moderate growth and we don't see double bookings there.

所以，如果你去看一下內存——我給你一些數據，約翰。如果你回顧過去15到20年的產業歷史，一些判斷何時需要超額建設的領先指標是記憶體需求特別強勁的時期，例如2007年、2017年和2018年，這三年記憶體需求都超過了50%。而現在，記憶體佔WFE（硬體設備）的比例在2021年為40%，並在2022年下降了幾個百分點。因此，我們認為記憶體的成長較為溫和，且沒有重複預訂的情況。

Second thing is a leading indicator of whether they're overbooking in the short term, we look at wafer starts and we look at fab utilization. So I said last quarter, fab utilization was at a record at our fiscal Q4. In fact, in Q1, fab utilization is slightly higher, so very high.

第二點是判斷他們短期內是否超額預訂的領先指標，我們會觀察晶圓開工量和晶圓廠利用率。正如我上個季度所說，我們第四財季的晶圓廠利用率創下了歷史新高。事實上，第一財季的晶圓廠利用率略高，非常高。

Thirdly, if you look at wafer starts over the last several years, wafer starts from '16 to '21 in memory, DRAM and NAND were both 19%. That's not a compound rate of growth, that's a total growth from '16 to '21. If you look at 200-millimeter, it's 17%. If you look at where the growth was, it was kind of 300-millimeter stuff, 100% from '16 to '21 in logic and foundry, right, logic/foundry. So now you go, well, so gee-whiz, let's look at logic/foundry.

第三，如果你看一下過去幾年的晶圓開工量，2016 年到 2021 年記憶體（DRAM 和 NAND）的晶圓開工量都是 19%。這不是複合成長率，而是 2016 年到 2021 年的總成長率。如果你看 200 毫米晶圓，增長率是 17%。如果你看看成長的領域，你會發現主要集中在 300 毫米晶圓上，2016 年到 2021 年邏輯和晶圓代工的成長率達到了 100%，沒錯，就是邏輯/晶圓代工。所以現在你可能會想，哇，我們來看看邏輯/晶圓代工吧。

So if you look at TSMC has put long-term spending out -- forecast of $100 billion kind of CapEx, $40 billion, $42 billion in CapEx next -- this year. And we've talked closely to them. I mean they're pretty committed to spend. If you look at Intel, pretty committed to spending and announcing new fabs. We're tracking fabs. Last quarter, we stated a number of 59 shells with $300 billion of -- $335 billion -- $300 billion to $335 billion. That number is up to 68, $365 billion to $385 billion. So if you look at shell counts, you look at growth in starts, you look at fab utilization, and you look at what the foundry/logic guys are committing to, who are a little more predictable and you look at memory mix, it's pretty good. Then you look at ICAPS mix versus trailing edge, right? Because ICAPS historically wasn't too big.

所以，如果你看看台積電，他們已經制定了長期支出計畫——預計今年資本支出將達到1,000億美元左右，明年將達到400億美元或420億美元。我們和他們進行了密切的溝通。我的意思是，他們非常重視支出。如果你看看英特爾，他們也非常重視支出，並且正在宣佈建造新的晶圓廠。我們一直在追蹤晶圓廠的情況。上個季度，我們統計了59個晶圓廠，投資額在3,000億到3,350億美元之間。現在這個數字已經上升到68個，投資金額在3,650億到3,850億美元之間。所以，如果你看看晶圓廠的數量、新開工量的成長、晶圓廠的利用率，以及代工/邏輯晶片廠商的投入（他們的投入相對來說更可預測），還有記憶體產品的組合，你會發現情況相當不錯。然後，你再看看ICAPS晶片與後發晶片的組合，對吧？因為ICAPS晶片歷來規模都不大。

Now ICAPS we define as 10-millimeter above, right? So if you look at that, it used to be pretty moderate because the business model for customers was to roll over tools from leading edge to the trailing edge, and that was enough tools to do trailing edge. But if you look at trailing edge demand, it's through the roof. If you look at the WFE by application base from '21 forward to '26, some of the biggest growth areas are, if you look at its data center, the accelerators, but it's also automobile, IoT, comms and some stuff in phones, particularly sensors. So there's big demand on this ICAPS sensor stuff. So if you look at it, the demand is there. And the funding of that through tools is not there because you don't have enough rolling over from the leading edge because the demand is going up on the trailing edge, right?

現在，我們把ICAPS定義為高於10毫米的晶片，對吧？所以，如果你看一下，以前ICAPS的需求相當溫和，因為客戶的商業模式是將工具從前沿晶片推廣到後沿晶片，而這些工具足以滿足後沿晶片的需求。但如果你看一下後沿晶片的需求，你會發現它非常旺盛。如果你看2021年到2026年WFE（晶圓前端）的應用領域，你會發現成長最快的領域包括資料中心、加速器，以及汽車、物聯網、通訊和手機中的一些應用，特別是感測器。所以，對ICAPS感測器產品的需求非常大。因此，你可以看出需求是存在的。但是，由於後沿晶片的需求不斷增長，前沿晶片的推廣不足，導致工具的資金投入不足，對吧？

So then you look at it and say, well, what is the actual demand? So we said 53% in '21 and '22 for ICAPS. Well, if you drill into 20-nanometer and above, so -- or 10, 14, 16 and look at some of the older stuff, particularly 28, it's gone up as a percentage of WFE from 31% in '20 to 43% in '21 and 44% in '22. So because of 2 factors, demand going up and less tools to roll over to those. So somebody might say, well, gee-whiz, that's overheated. Well, if you look at the rate of increase is declining, right? It went 31%, 43%, 44%. So it's strong, but the rate of increase is declining. So the very long answer, but I gave you data, is I don't think we're overheated right now. We have lots of orders. The mix is the type of mix, it's not crazy mix. Now you can drill into ICAPS in China a little bit. But I think we're pretty good this year and probably next year.

所以，接下來你要仔細分析，看看實際需求到底是多少。我們之前說，ICAPS 在 2021 年和 2022 年的比例是 53%。但是，如果你深入研究 20 奈米及以上工藝，例如 10 奈米、14 奈米、16 奈米，以及一些更早期的工藝，特別是 28 奈米，你會發現它在 WFE（晶圓前端）中的佔比從 2020 年的 31% 上升到 2021 年的 43%，再到 204%。這主要有兩個原因：一是需求成長，二是能夠過渡到這些製程的工具越來越少。所以有人可能會說，哇，這市場過熱了。但是，如果你觀察成長率，你會發現它正在下降，對吧？它從 31% 增長到 43%，再到 44%。所以市場依然強勁，但成長率正在下降。所以，長話短說，我已經提供了數據，我認為我們現在並沒有過熱。我們有很多訂單。這種組合就是這種組合，不是那種瘋狂的組合。現在你可以稍微深入了解中國ICAPS的情況。但我認為我們今年表現相當不錯，明年可能也還不錯。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。

I just wanted to go back. So in Q4, I think you mentioned you were short by about $300 million or so that you were not able to fulfill. I'm wondering what that impact was in Q1 because when [mobile] applied this 5% sequential growth through Q3, it only captures, I think, $300 million or so of sequential growth. Shouldn't you be growing more than that going into Q3 given the shortfalls you had in Q4 or Q1? Or is this still kind of very supply-constrained number?

我只是想回去看看。所以，在第四季度，我記得您提到大約有3億美元的缺口未能滿足。我想知道這在第一季造成了什麼影響，因為[行動裝置]應用了第三季5%的環比成長，這只體現了約3億美元的環比成長。考慮到您在第四季或第一季的缺口，進入第三季後，您的成長不應該超過這個數字嗎？或者說，這個數字仍然受到供應的限制？

It's completely supply constrained. We have more orders than we can ship. If you look at our backlog build, it was $1.3 billion in the quarter, and our backlog growth is pretty substantial in the next couple of quarters. So we are totally supply constrained as everyone is in the industry. I think $300 million was a starting number for what it was in Q4. And I think Q1 could have been more if we weren't supply constrained. And the mix is really good for us in the backlog. It's products like MDP and epi and products like that.

供應完全受限。我們的訂單量遠遠超過了出貨能力。看看我們本季的積壓訂單，高達13億美元，未來幾季的積壓訂單成長動能依然強勁。所以，和業內其他公司一樣，我們也面臨嚴重的供應限制。我認為3億美元只是第四季的初始數字。如果不是供應受限，第一季的積壓訂單數量應該會更多。而且，我們積壓訂單的產品組合非常有利，包括MDP、Epi等產品。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar of Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Krish Sankar。

Bob, I just wanted to touch base again on the supply constraint. The semi industry has been constrained for a while, but you and your equipment peers have been experiencing it for a few quarters now. And it seems like now you're talking not just to your suppliers, but their suppliers and also a few levels below that, and some of whom might end up being direct customers as well. So I'm kind of curious, has that level of depth in your supply chain giving you better insight into when these issues could abate? And is that what is informing your mid-single-digit sequential growth for the next few quarters in semis?

鮑勃，我只是想再次確認供應限制的問題。半導體產業供應受限已經有一段時間了，但你和你的設備同行已經連續幾個季度感受到這個問題了。而且現在看來，你不僅在和你的供應商溝通，還在和他們的供應商以及更下層的供應商溝通，其中一些最終可能也會成為你的直接客戶。所以我很好奇，這種深入的供應鏈管理是否讓你對這些問題何時能夠緩解有了更清楚的認知？這是否也是你預期未來幾季半導體業務將維持中等個位數較上季成長的原因？

Yes. I'll give you some more color than yes. So we buy -- an average tool has got about 5,000 discrete parts for us. And then those parts have many subcomponents down to our level of suppliers. And so some of our suppliers run MRP, some of them run build to stock, stuff like that. So our historical visibility today builds a material and their supply chain was limited. We've gotten into a lot more depth to understand our suppliers, suppliers, suppliers, which goes back to our customers. It's kind of a circuitous route. And at many times, they get their parts from our customers through distributors, not directly from our customers.

是的。我再詳細解釋一下。我們購買的工具平均包含約 5000 個獨立零件。這些零件又包含許多子組件，一直延伸到我們的供應商層面。有些供應商採用物料需求計畫 (MRP)，有些則採用庫存生產 (BTO) 等策略。因此，我們過去對物料的了解僅限於建構物料，而他們的供應鏈也比較有限。現在，我們深入了解了我們的供應商，以及最終到達我們客戶的供應商。這其實是一個相當迂迴的過程。很多時候，他們不是直接從我們的客戶那裡獲得零件，而是透過分銷商從我們的客戶那裡獲得零件。

So as we have gotten visibility into this, we've gotten a much more in-depth understanding of the choke points and ways to manage this tactically and, frankly, long term strategically. So I think our visibility is a lot better. Our management [area] is getting incrementally better every quarter. And how we think about it strategically long term, I think, is a very big benefit to the company.

隨著我們對情況的了解不斷深入，我們對瓶頸問題以及如何從戰術層面和長期戰略層面應對這些問題有了更深刻的理解。因此，我認為我們的洞察力大大提升。我們的管理水準每季都在穩步提高。而我們從長期策略角度思考問題的方式，我認為對公司來說是一項巨大的優勢。

So yes, we got, again, better visibility. I think we're tactically managing better. We're not out of the woods yet, but I think there's going to be long-term benefits to the company in terms of our depth of understanding.

所以，是的，我們再次獲得了更清晰的視野。我認為我們在戰術管理上也做得更好了。我們還沒有完全脫離困境，但我認為，就我們對情況的理解深度而言，這將為公司帶來長期的益處。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, in your prepared remarks, you talked about some wins in the etch market in areas where you historically didn't compete all that much. You talked about advanced nodes across foundry and logic. You also talked about inspection and metrology and how you've done well there on a trailing 12-month basis and the outlook into '22. When you think about those wins and the momentum you have, how should we think about your overall WFE market share in '22? I realize in the near term, you're still supply constrained. But once supply eases, should we expect you guys to outperform the market this year and perhaps into '23?

Gary，您在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，貴公司在蝕刻市場上取得了一些以往競爭並不激烈的領域取得的勝利。您還談到了代工和邏輯電路的先進節點。此外，您還談到了檢測和計量領域，以及貴公司在過去12個月中在該領域的出色表現和對2022年的展望。考慮到這些勝利和目前的成長勢頭，我們應該如何看待貴公司在2022年的整體晶圓前端（WFE）市場佔有率？我知道短期內貴公司仍面臨供應限制。但一旦供應緩解，我們是否可以預期貴公司今年甚至2023年都能超越市場平均？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Toshiya. No question that the areas that you mentioned, etch, PDC, are significant opportunities for us both now and going forward. I'd say the biggest thing for us is capturing the inflections. We talked about gate-all-around, wiring. We mentioned a few months ago bringing a new tool to market, 7 different technologies and an integrated platform to lower wiring resistance by 50%. And that one platform -- combined platform is worth billions of dollars. So you've got the transistor to process the data, wiring to connect the data, all of the technologies associated with those inflections. We gave some examples around capacitor scaling in DRAM, the CMOS logic also, inflection in memory. All of those inflections are really, really great opportunities for Applied.

是的，謝謝你的提問，Toshiya。毫無疑問，你提到的蝕刻和PDC領域，無論現在或將來，對我們來說都是重要的機會。我認為對我們來說最重要的是抓住這些轉折點。我們之前討論過環柵封裝和佈線。幾個月前，我們提到將一款新工具推向市場，它融合了7種不同的技術，是一個整合平台，可以將佈線電阻降低50%。而這個平台——或者說整個平台——價值數十億美元。所以，你需要一個晶體管來處理數據，佈線來連接數據，以及所有與這些轉折點相關的技術。我們舉了一些例子，像是DRAM中的電容微縮、CMOS邏輯以及記憶體領域的轉折點。所有這些轉折點對於應用材料來說都是非常非常好的機會。

Really, the unique thing for us when you look at whether it's the leading logic, ICAPS, memory, packaging is another one where we have over 50% share of our served markets, we have very deep visibility into all of those inflections. And it's really about creating materials to enable the electrical performance, shaping those structures, modifying the materials, analyzing to really drive the T in the PPACt for our customers. We're in really -- we've never been in a better position in any of those different areas.

確實，我們的獨特之處在於，無論是領先的邏輯電路、積體電路、記憶體還是封裝，我們都佔據了超過50%的市場份額，並且對所有這些關鍵節點都有著非常深刻的洞察。這其實是關於創造能夠提升電氣性能的材料，塑造這些結構，改進材料，並透過分析真正推動客戶在產品性能分析（PPACt）中取得突破性進展。我們目前在這些領域都處於前所未有的有利地位。

In the specific products you mentioned, in etch, certainly, that's been a really great growth platform for us. The Sym3 etcher has significant technical advantages, higher conductance with a larger chamber volume, unique materials on our chamber wall so we can provide better defects and better yield. And again, really, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, not only are we doing really well in memory there, but we're gaining significant share, double-digit share at all the leading foundry/logic customers.

就您提到的具體產品而言，蝕刻領域無疑是我們非常重要的成長平台。 Sym3 蝕刻機擁有顯著的技術優勢，更大的腔室容積帶來更高的導電性，腔室壁採用獨特的材料，從而能夠降低缺陷率，提高良率。此外，正如我在準備的發言稿中提到的，我們不僅在記憶體領域表現出色，而且在所有領先的代工廠/邏輯晶片客戶中都獲得了顯著的市場份額，達到了兩位數。

PDC, that was another one that you mentioned, really tremendous growth in PDC, 68% in terms of the overall revenue growth. A really significant position in e-beam and -- or e-beam overall, the review, inspection, measurement where we doubled in 2021. We have significant leadership there. In '22, we'll have significant growth not only in e-beam, but even faster growth in optical wafer inspection.

PDC，您剛才也提到了，PDC業務成長非常迅猛，整體營收成長了68%。我們在電子束檢測領域，或者說整個電子束檢測、審查和測量領域，都佔據了非常重要的地位，2021年我們的業務量翻了一番。我們在該領域擁有顯著的領先地位。 2022年，我們不僅在電子束檢測領域將顯著成長，而且在光學晶圓檢測領域也將實現更快的成長。

So I would say on the unit processes, we're in a really great position. And really, what I'm most excited about is our ability to capture these big inflections that I talked about in the prepared remarks. Relative to what you see in the revenue growth, and Bob mentioned that earlier, you just can't see it because we can't ship it. And also what Bob talked about earlier was that our backlog, we're booking into 2023, especially in some of our leadership areas. Bob mentioned our metals for wiring. And again, big inflections in wiring where Applied has tremendous leadership. epi, implant, that's another one that will grow significantly for us in 2022. So yes, I -- really, we've never been in a better position, Toshiya, than where we are right now.

所以，就單元流程而言，我認為我們目前處於非常有利的地位。真正讓我感到興奮的是我們能夠抓住我在準備演講稿中提到的那些重大轉折點。就你們所看到的營收成長而言，正如鮑伯之前提到的，你們現在還看不到，因為我們無法交付產品。鮑伯之前也提到，我們的積壓訂單已經排到了2023年，尤其是在我們的一些領先領域。鮑伯提到了我們用於佈線的金屬材料。再次強調，佈線領域將迎來重大轉折點，而應用材料在該領域擁有強大的領先地位。外用植入物領域，這也是我們在2022年將有顯著成長的另一個領域。所以，是的，我——真的，我們從未像現在這樣處於如此有利的地位，俊也。

The biggest challenge for us right now is really to close that demand-supply gap.

我們目前面臨的最大挑戰是彌補供需缺口。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

I assume that the team is placing orders for both subsystems, parts and chips basically through the entirety of this year just given the extended lead times with your suppliers. And I assume that you guys have good visibility as to what those suppliers can ship against your orders. So if you put all of that together, can the team meet its forward backlog and forecasted customer shipment requirements for this year? Or do you think that there's a likelihood that you exit this calendar year with your shipments below your customers' demand requirements? In other words, is the 2022 WFE of $100 billion for you and peers below what your customers require? And if so, like what do you think is the true 2022 equipment demand profile?

我假設，鑑於供應商交貨週期延長，貴團隊今年基本上全年都在訂購子系統、零件和晶片。我也假設貴團隊對供應商的供貨能力有清楚的了解。那麼，綜合所有因素，貴團隊能否滿足今年的訂單積壓和顧客出貨需求？或者，您認為今年出貨量是否有可能低於顧客需求？換句話說，貴公司和同業預計的2022年1000億美元的WFE（世界設備出口）是否低於客戶需求？如果低於，您認為2022年的實際設備需求量是多少？

Sure. Well, you've got a couple of questions in there, Harlan. Mechanically, what we do; two, the visibility; and three, what do we think unconstrained demand is in '22. So if you think about how we do it, we send signals to the supply chain through MRP. And they say they can meet or not meet. Frankly, they are struggling to understand what they can meet more than a quarter or 2 out because it's their suppliers, right? So I think visibility is kind of gray. So we mechanically do it, but nobody is sure, right?

當然。哈蘭，你提了幾個問題。首先，我們具體是怎麼操作的；其次，需求可見度如何；第三，我們認為2022年不受限制的需求是多少。我們是透過MRP系統向供應鏈發送訊號，然後由他們決定是否能夠滿足需求。坦白說，他們很難確定未來一兩個季度以上的供應情況，因為那是他們的供應商，對吧？所以我覺得需求可見度有點模糊。我們機械地執行系統，但沒人能確定，對吧？

The second thing is -- but we see improvement, right? The second thing is what do we think unconstrained demand is? I think the tactical question you asked, too, could we go out of the year with demand still north of supply? Yes, we could. We're into '23. So I think our backlog probably grows throughout our fiscal year.

第二點是——但我們確實看到了改善，對吧？第二點是，我們認為不受限制的需求是多少？我認為你提出的策略性問題也很重要，那就是我們能否在年底前保持需求大於供應？是的，有可能。現在已經是2023年了。所以我認為我們的積壓訂單可能會在整個財年持續成長。

If you go look at unconstrained demand, I think WFE, $100 billion is defined as what we ship for the industry. And you see our competitors are also constrained this year, and they're booking into '23. I think unconstrained demand is several billion more than $100 billion. I think it's less than $110 billion, but it's more than $100 billion.

如果你看一下不受限制的需求，我認為WFE定義的1000億美元是我們為整個產業提供的服務量。你會發現我們的競爭對手今年的產能也受到限制，他們的訂單已經排到2023年了。我認為不受限制的需求比1000億美元還要高出幾十億美元。我認為它低於1100億美元，但肯定高於1000億美元。

Our next question comes from Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇。

You had mentioned that you're opening a new logistics center. I was wondering if you could help us understand, does that give you added capacity? Or does that also help on the cost efficiency side? And then are there some start-up costs that we should be thinking about that are embedded in this quarter's gross margin guidance?

您之前提到過要開設一個新的物流中心。我想請問一下，這是否能提升您的產能？或者說，這是否也有助於提高成本效益？此外，本季的毛利率預期是否包含了某些啟動成本？我們需要考慮這些成本嗎？

That mostly helps efficiency of shipping, receiving, moving things around. It doesn't do much to our costs because our volumes are up, so the cost that we absorb into the burden. And so as a percentage of cost, it doesn't have much impact. We probably, frankly, will do further expansions in the next year or 2. But I don't think it hurts our cost, helps our -- affect us in efficiency.

這主要有助於提高出貨、收貨和貨物搬運的效率。由於業務量增加，成本增加的部分由我們自行承擔，因此對我們的成本影響不大。所以，從成本佔比來看，影響並不顯著。坦白說，我們未來一兩年可能會進一步擴張。但我認為這不會增加成本，反而有助於提高效率。

Yes. And Bob, just a follow-up. So what do you think gross margin does between Q2 and the end of the year? And is it impacted at all by that buildup?

是的。鮑勃，我還有一個後續問題。你認為第二季到年底毛利率會如何變動？它是否會受到這種成長的影響？

I think gross margins probably go up about half a point from the Q2 guide to Q4. And I think what we just mentioned doesn't have really any impact.

我認為毛利率可能會比第二季預期上升約0.5個百分點。而且我認為我們剛才提到的情況實際上不會產生任何影響。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提摩西·阿庫裡。

I have a question just on the shape of the year in terms of WFE and sort of how to think about -- Gary, you talked about WFE intensity. And the question really is how much semiconductor revenue can this WFE backstop? So if you take everyone's reporting, and they've sort of commented on Q2 as well, it seems like we're doing about $45 billion here in the first half and maybe $55 billion in the back half, something like that to get you to a $100 billion number. And I think in the past, Gary, you talked about 14% WFE intensity. So that would have to support like $800 billion in semiconductor revenue. And this year, if we're lucky, we're going to be at kind of $650 billion. So I'm just wondering if you agree with all that math and sort of how you think about maybe how far out in front of semi revenue WFE is.

我有一個關於今年WFE（晶圓製造設備）發展趨勢的問題，以及應該如何看待這個問題——Gary，你之前提到WFE的強度。真正的問題是，WFE能支撐多少半導體營收？如果參考大家的報告（他們也對第二季有所評論），上半年WFE的營收似乎在450億美元左右，下半年可能達到550億美元，以此類推，最終達到1000億美元。 Gary，我記得你之前提到WFE強度是14%。這意味著WFE需要支撐約8000億美元的半導體營收。而今年，如果運氣好的話，我們大概可以達到6500億美元。所以我想知道你是否認同這些計算結果，以及你如何看待WFE對半導體營收的影響程度。

Well, yes, thanks for the question, Tim. In terms of WFE or the capital intensity, the number is definitely higher than 14%. If you look at all of these big inflections that the customers are ramping, the capital intensity is probably around 18%, I would guess, right now but definitely higher than the 14% number. I'll let Bob come in, in here in just a second. But just one example is in wiring resistance where that really is one of the biggest areas of focus for all of the foundry/logic customers. If you look at back-end interconnect steps from 5-nanometer to 3-nanometer, they're increasing by about 2x.

好的，謝謝你的提問，提姆。就WFE（晶圓廠設備）或資本密集度而言，這個數字肯定高於14%。如果你看看客戶正在經歷的這些重大產能提升階段，我估計目前的資本密集度可能在18%左右，但肯定高於14%。我馬上讓鮑伯來補充。舉個例子，在佈線電阻方面，這確實是所有代工廠/邏輯晶片客戶最關注的領域之一。如果你看看從5奈米到3奈米的後端互連工藝，你會發現它們的電阻增加了大約兩倍。

Now the other thing that's happening -- and by the way, it's also increasing in not only foundry/logic, but also in memory. So that -- again, that's just an example. To get that 50% reduction in wiring resistance, it's pretty complex. That complexity also impacts the output of the system. So not only are you seeing step -- steps increase, but you're also seeing a reduction in output. And then certainly for Applied, our metal deposition products where we have a very, very high share, that's an example of a really significant driver for us and one of the factors on why we're booking into 2023 for those products.

現在還有另一件事正在發生——順便說一句，這種情況不僅在晶圓代工/邏輯電路領域，而且在記憶體領域也在增加。所以——這只是一個例子。要實現佈線電阻降低50%，相當複雜。這種複雜性也會影響系統的輸出。因此，您不僅會看到階梯電阻增加，還會看到輸出降低。當然，對於應用材料公司來說，我們的金屬沉積產品市佔率非常非常高，這正是對我們而言非常重要的驅動因素，也是我們為這些產品預留2023年訂單的原因之一。

And Bob, I don't know if you want to add any more color.

鮑勃，我不知道你是否還想添加更多顏色。

Sure. It's a good question, Tim. I think the 14%, 15% is running a little higher. I think sustainably, you're at a good 15%. If you look at the trend lines and just split it out, WFE intensity, just WFE divided by customers' revenues. If you look at foundry/logic, DRAM and NAND, foundry/logic is the most, and it's trending up for a couple of reasons, leading edge and because of there's not enough tools for the trailing edge. So the revenue dollars take more WFE. And you can sort of see customers talking about that, too. And you see customers like TI who haven't spent in years having to add trailing capacity. So the CapEx as a percentage of WFE of revenue is trending up.

當然。提姆，你問得好。我認為14%到15%的比例略高一些。我認為從長遠來看，15%是一個不錯的水平。如果你看趨勢線，然後單獨分析WFE強度，也就是WFE除以客戶收入，你會發現晶圓代工/邏輯、DRAM和NAND的WFE佔比最高，而且由於兩個原因，它的WFE佔比還在上升：一是前沿技術的需求，二是後沿技術所需的工具不足。因此，收入需要投入更多的WFE。你也可以看到客戶在討論這個問題。像德州儀器這樣的客戶，多年來都沒有投入資金用於後沿技術，現在卻不得不增加後沿產能。所以，WFE佔收入的資本支出比例正在上升。

If you do a rough cut and you think with this foundry/logic mix with more ICAPS, with more greenfields and technological inflections around 3D and gate-all-around, which will drive a little more spending, I think 15% is kind of the new normal, frankly.

如果你粗略地估算一下，考慮到這種代工/邏輯混合模式，以及更多 ICAPS、更多綠地項目和圍繞 3D 和全方位閘電路的技術轉變，這將推動支出略微增加，坦白說，我認為 15% 算是新的常態了。

If you look at electronics spending in 2025, it's about $780 billion. So if you take 15% of that, you're about $117 billion WFE in '25. So I think kind of sustainable growth rate is high single digits for WFE, and it's driven partly -- and half of this has got a capital intensity, half is growth in wafer starts. And if you drive the capital intensity at 50%, I think the numbers all kind of work to high single-digits sustainable cross-cycle growth rate for WFE.

如果展望2025年電子產品支出，約為7800億美元。那麼，如果取其中的15%，晶圓製造設備（WFE）的支出約為1,170億美元。因此，我認為WFE的可持續成長率將維持在較高的個位數，這部分成長的驅動力來自資本密集因素，另一部分則來自晶圓開工量的成長。如果資本密集因素佔比達到50%，我認為所有數據都顯示WFE能夠達到較高的個位數可持續跨週期成長率。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wonder if you could talk about the nature of the supply constraints a little bit. Last quarter, you talked about it being mostly programmable logic. Have the challenges broadened out from there? And I guess how is it that there's so much visibility that this is going to continue to be constrained through the end of the year? Like shouldn't -- I would think you're the highest utility user of a lot of these chips. Is it possible that you could get -- you could sort of get -- move up in the queue and get these products before the end of the year?

我想請您談談供應限制的具體情況。上個季度您提到主要限制的是可程式邏輯晶片。現在挑戰是否已經擴大到其他領域了？而且，為什麼大家都認為這種供應限制會持續到年底？畢竟，我認為貴公司是許多這類晶片的最大用戶。貴公司是否有可能——或者說，是否有可能——提前拿到這些產品，在年底前交付？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. I'm living this every single day relative to going deep in the supply chain with all of the components that are constraining our output. I really think the guidance we've given, Bob talked about relative to quarter-to-quarter improvement, is really in the ZIP code of where we're going to land. We definitely have much, much deeper visibility, even then we had -- we were on this call a quarter ago. As Bob talked about, from a chip perspective, in a lot of cases, these chips are buried down in components. They come from our customers through distributors, and they really don't know the end destination for those chips.

是的，謝謝，喬。我每天都在切身感受到這一點，那就是深入供應鏈，了解所有限制我們產量的環節。我真的認為，鮑伯提到的季度環比成長預期，與我們最終的目標非常接近。我們現在的洞察力比上個季度電話會議時要強得多。正如鮑伯所說，從晶片的角度來看，很多情況下，這些晶片都隱藏在其他組件中。它們透過分銷商從客戶那裡交付，而分銷商根本不知道這些晶片的最終去向。

As they learn that where the constraints are, they've certainly responded in helping to resolve those issues. But there are just a number of those different constraints. I wouldn't say it's only chips. There are also other areas of the industry. I mentioned again in our metal deposition products where the -- really the demand has just went up so much higher than where they were.

當他們了解到限制因素所在時，他們也會積極回應，幫助解決這些問題。但限制因素有很多種。我並不認為只有晶片領域有這種情況，其他產業領域也存在類似問題。我之前提到過，在我們的金屬沉積產品領域，需求確實比以前高得多。

There are other components that are also constraining us. But I think that we do have much deeper visibility. And what Bob said earlier, I think, is also true. We will come out of this stronger. I think there's no question we'll have better visibility. We have very -- we'll have deeper relationships with our suppliers. So again -- but I think from a ZIP code standpoint, the ballpark of what Bob talked about in terms of the incremental growth quarter-on-quarter is about right. Again, it may not be exactly those numbers, but that's really the relative trajectory.

還有其他一些因素也在限制我們。但我認為我們現在對情況的了解更加深入了。鮑伯之前說的也對。我們會變得更強大。毫無疑問，我們會擁有更清晰的視野。我們會與供應商建立更緊密的聯繫。所以，從郵遞區號的角度來看，鮑伯提到的季度環比成長幅度大致正確。當然，實際數字可能略有不同，但這確實是大致的發展趨勢。

Our next question comes from Sidney Ho of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的何世德。

My question is on the memory side of the WFE. I think you guys reiterated your view that memory WFE will grow but less than foundry and logic. But based on some of the comments you had earlier, you're looking at the kind of low teens growth rate for memory. Just curious, has your view changed much given the memory market seems to have improved in the past 3 months? Or they are so supply constraint that you can't really service the upside?

我的問題是關於WFE（晶圓廠前端）的記憶體部分。你們之前重申過，記憶體WFE會成長，但成長速度會低於晶圓代工和邏輯晶片。不過，根據你們之前的一些評論，你們預期記憶體的成長率可能只有十幾個百分點。我很好奇，鑑於過去三個月記憶體市場似乎有所好轉，你們的看法是否有所改變？或者說，記憶體市場的供應非常緊張，以至於你們無法滿足市場成長的需求？

And maybe just one more. I think last quarter, you talked about the NAND side is up but the DRAM is down. Is there any update to that as well?

或許還有一個問題。我記得上個季度您提到NAND快閃記憶體銷量上升，但DRAM銷售下降。這方面有什麼新的進展嗎？

Sure. Good question, Sidney. I think that there's 2 reference points for our view of DRAM, NAND growth, foundry/logic and the mix. And I think our view has changed a little bit since last quarter. I think last quarter, our outlook for '22, we were probably a little low on outlook for China, and we're probably a little low on DRAM in particular. So if you look at our reference point, we now believe that in a constrained environment, which is kind of the $100 billion number, we think that DRAM and NAND are kind of flattish from '21, maybe down tiny bit, but kind of flattish. And if you look at foundry/logic, that's the biggest growth, and we think that increases from 60% to several points higher than that in terms of mix in a $100 billion environment.

當然。問得好，西德尼。我認為我們對DRAM、NAND成長、晶圓代工/邏輯晶片以及它們的組合的看法有兩個參考點。而且我認為我們的看法與上個季度相比略有變化。上個季度，我們對2022年的展望可能略顯保守，尤其是對DRAM的預期。所以，如果你看一下我們的參考點，我們現在認為，在受限的環境下（大約是1000億美元的規模），DRAM和NAND的增長與2021年相比基本持平，可能略有下降，但總體上持平。而晶圓代工/邏輯晶片是成長最快的領域，我們認為在1000億美元的規模下，其佔比將從60%提高到更高的水平。

So number one, I think we're more positive on DRAM and NAND, DRAM particularly than we were last quarter. And we are more positive on overall WFE in '22 than we were last quarter. I think we still remain positive on foundry, but DRAM probably had the biggest delta on our view from last quarter.

首先，我認為我們對DRAM和NAND的前景更加樂觀，尤其是DRAM，比上個季度更樂觀。我們對2022年整體晶圓代工業務的前景也比上季更樂觀。我認為我們仍然看好晶圓代工業務，但DRAM可能是我們預期與上個季度相比變化最大的領域。

And then in an unconstrained -- and I don't think they're growing too fast, frankly. If you look at fab utilization by memory and DRAM, it's pretty darn good. So I think they're okay. And I think it's a little more second half weighted.

然後，在不受限制的情況下——坦白說，我認為它們的成長速度並不算太快。如果你看看記憶體和DRAM的晶圓廠利用率，你會發現它們相當不錯。所以我認為它們沒問題。而且我認為這種成長勢頭更多地集中在下半年。

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Actually, couple of follow-ups. Bob, you were making references, I think it was the trading niche of ICAPS. You were highlighting 43% of the WFE mix in '21 and 44% in '22. Was that -- did you mean to imply that trading niche or entire ICAPS as a percentage of WFE?

實際上，還有幾個後續問題。鮑勃，你之前提到ICAPS的交易業務，我記得你提到2021年WFE業務比43%，2022年佔44%。你是想說ICAPS的交易業務佔WFE業務佔比，還是指整個ICAPS業務佔比？

What were the 2 choices, again, Mehdi?

梅赫迪，那兩個選擇是什麼來著？

You highlighted 31% mix for 2020, 43% for '21 and 44% for '22. I'm just trying to understand what you were referring to. What are those mixes?

您特別提到2020年的比例為31%，2021年為43%，2022年為44%。我不太明白您指的是什麼。這些比例具體指什麼？

All right. So what we did is we broke down ICAPS a little bit. We define ICAPS as everything, except the leading node. So that's 10-millimeter and above, okay? But then I drove into it some more, and I said, I want to look at 20-nanometer and above, including 200-millimeter stuff because if you look at the last 3 years, the sales on those have grown. Now where you particularly had growth is 28-nanometer stuff. So the percentage of foundry and logic that was 20-nanometer and above in 2020 in the WFE numbers was 31%. And then our revenue mix for us for foundry/logic, pretty similar, too. We had 43% for 2021 and 44% for '22. And where you see the biggest growth year-on-year is 28-nanometer is up; 45-nanometer is up the strongest; 90-nanometer, not too much. But we went into depth by node by year.

好的。所以我們對ICAPS進行了更細緻的劃分。我們把ICAPS定義為除領先節點以外的所有節點，也就是10毫米以上過程，懂嗎？但我進一步解釋說，我想看看20奈米及以上過程，包括200奈米過程，因為如果你觀察過去三年的數據，你會發現這些過程的銷售額有所成長。其中，28奈米製程的成長尤為顯著。 2020年，在WFE（晶圓廠設備）的銷售額中，20奈米以上製程的代工及邏輯晶片佔比為31%。我們本身的代工/邏輯晶片營收組成也與之類似，2021年為43%，2022年為44%。年成長幅度最大的是28奈米製程；45奈米製程的成長最為強勁；90奈米製程的成長則相對較小。但我們按節點和年份進行了深入分析。

So our conclusion is -- so the other thing that's interesting, Mehdi, was it's gone up. The rate of acceleration has diminished somewhat. And then if you look at a curve in the out-years for ICAPS, leading edge, DRAM and NAND and their share in growing of WFE, you see ICAPS growing in absolute volume. So what also you have to think about is where do the ICAPS tools come from? Not only are the number of devices coming, but where did they get the equipment for that? So they used to take that equipment and roll it over from the leading edge.

所以我們得出的結論是——還有一點很有意思，Mehdi，那就是它上升了。加速成長的速度有所放緩。如果你觀察一下ICAPS、前沿技術、DRAM和NAND在未來幾年的曲線，以及它們在WFE成長中所佔的份額，你會發現ICAPS的絕對銷售量正在成長。所以你還需要考慮的是ICAPS工具來自哪裡？不僅設備數量在成長，而且這些設備又是從哪裡來的？他們過去常常把前沿技術的設備移植過來。

So let's make up an example. So in the leading edge, you might run it for a couple of years, 2 nodes, and you might roll 90% of the equipment forward to the next node and then 10% is for reuse so some gets left behind. But if ICAPS, trailing edge isn't growing much, you have most of your equipment for the trailing edge fully depreciated to use on the trailing edge. But an incremental growth in ICAPS, they believe your ICAPS grows 2x. Your capital equipment requirements for it goes up like 10x, relatively speaking, because you don't have that much equipment rolling over from the leading edge. So the WFE spend on ICAPS is driven by not just growth in ICAPS but the availability of tools to roll into it, they generally have to buy new.

我們舉個例子。在前沿階段，你可能運行幾年，部署兩個節點，然後將90%的設備轉移到下一個節點，剩下的10%用於重複使用，所以會有一些設備留在前沿。但是，如果ICAPS（整合應用效能分析系統）的後沿階段成長不大，那麼後沿階段的大部分設備已經完全折舊完畢，可以繼續使用。但是，如果ICAPS出現增量成長，假設ICAPS成長兩倍，那麼後沿階段的資本設備需求相對會增加10倍，因為前沿階段的設備轉移量並不多。因此，ICAPS的WFE（工作設備支出）不僅取決於ICAPS的成長，還取決於可用於遷移的工具的可用性，通常情況下，他們必須購買新設備。

Yes. I would say, Mehdi, just one more thing. That's -- a dynamic over the last few years used to have used tools that were available for ICAPS, that's all gone. And more of that has moved from 200-millimeter to 300-millimeter. So all of those transitions have increased capital intensity for ICAPS.

是的。 Mehdi，我還要補充一點。過去幾年，ICAPS 系統曾使用過一些專用工具，但現在這些工具都不再適用。而且，許多專案都從 200 毫米的規模轉向了 300 毫米的規模。所有這些轉變都增加了 ICAPS 系統的資本密集度。

Great. If I may have just a quick follow-up. And thanks so much for the all the insights, it's very helpful. If I were to think about these mixes, Bob, you referenced, I think the majority of this is actually being installed in China. And we're dealing with the situation that for most of the OEMs, China has become -- domestic China has become more than 1/3. So I'm assuming that the investment in China for 20-nanometer and above for logic and foundry will continue, will sustain regardless of what happens outside of China. Would that be fair?

太好了。我還有一個後續問題。非常感謝您提供的所有見解，這對我很有幫助。鮑勃，關於您提到的這些混合應用，我認為其中大部分實際上是在中國安裝的。而我們現在面臨的情況是，對於大多數OEM廠商來說，中國本土市場已經佔了超過三分之一的份額。所以我假設，無論中國以外的市場狀況如何，對中國20奈米以上邏輯晶片和代工的生產投資都會持續，都會維持下去。這樣理解對嗎？

Yes. I think that's fair. The other thing you might look at, Mehdi, which is interesting is where is the growth in WFE spend by application. And you've got a pretty big growth in the out-years for automobiles, IoTs, some of the sensors stuff and phones. So I agree, the China stuff will sustain stuff. I agree that the long-term demand is pretty good. I agree that they can't keep growing forever. But I think it's already started to decelerate a little bit in the relative growth rates from '20 to '21, '21 to '22. And you have to look at that availability of tools to roll over from the leading edge when you look at WFE because it's a compounding factor.

是的，我覺得很合理。 Mehdi，你也可以看看WFE（工作場所前端）支出在不同應用領域的成長情況，這很有意思。未來幾年，汽車、物聯網、一些感測器和手機領域的成長都相當顯著。所以我同意，中國市場會持續推動成長。我也同意長期需求相當不錯。當然，成長不可能永遠持續下去。但我認為，從2020年到2021年，以及從2021年到2022年，相對成長率已經開始略有放緩。在檢視WFE時，你必須考慮前緣技術向後過渡的可行性，因為這是一個疊加效應。

Yes. Thank you, Mehdi. And operator, that's all the time that we have for questions. Bob, would you like to help us close off the call?

是的，謝謝你，邁赫迪。接線員，我們提問時間到此為止了。鮑勃，你願意幫我們結束通話嗎？

Sure, Mike. I'll give you my 3-legged stool summary. You all look forward to those. Number one, demand continues to be very strong. We see our business trending up as we proceed through the year, and we believe '23 will be even stronger. Number two, Applied's position is very strong. I'm confident that if we really make progress with our supply chain, we'll be able to demonstrate that we are very much on track to our market share and our gross margin targets. And number three, even in this constrained environment, we're generating record revenue and operating cash flow, which is fueling strong shareholder returns.

當然，麥克。我會給你總結一下我的「三腳凳」策略。你們一定都很期待。第一，市場需求依然非常強勁。我們預計業務將在今年持續成長，並相信2023年會更加強勁。第二，Applied的市場地位非常穩固。我相信，如果我們能在供應鏈方面取得實質進展，就能證明我們完全有信心實現市佔率和毛利率目標。第三，即使在當前這種受限的環境下，我們仍然創造了創紀錄的收入和經營現金流，這為股東帶來了豐厚的回報。

Now Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

麥克，我們結束通話吧。

All right. Thanks, Bob. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 Pacific Time. We'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。謝謝鮑勃。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。太平洋時間下午5點前，您可以在我們的網站上收聽本次電話會議的錄音回放。感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。