應用材料 (AMAT) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

歡迎來到應用材料公司財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好，感謝您參加應用材料公司的 2022 財年第三季度財報電話會議。加入我的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Dickerson；和我們的首席財務官 Brice Hill。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到可能導致我們實際結果不同的風險和不確定性的影響。有關風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 最近提交給 SEC 的 10-Q 和 8-K 表格中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益材料中可以找到與 GAAP 措施的對賬，這些材料可在我們網站的 IR 頁面上找到，網址為 Appliedmaterials.com。

Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. Applied plans to host our services Master Class 5 weeks from today on Thursday, [September 22](corrected by company after the call) at 9:00 Pacific Time. We'll describe the market opportunity for our services business, explain why 87% of AGS revenue is truly recurring, and give you the growth formula for the business through our 2024 financial model horizon and beyond. We hope you'll join team members of our global services team for presentations and Q&A.

在我們開始之前，我有一個日曆公告。應用計劃從今天起 5 週後於太平洋時間（9 月 22 日）星期四（由公司在電話會議後更正）在太平洋時間 9:00 舉辦我們的服務大師班。我們將描述我們的服務業務的市場機會，解釋為什麼 87% 的 AGS 收入是真正經常性的，並為您提供通過我們 2024 年財務模型視野及以後的業務增長公式。我們希望您能與我們全球服務團隊的成員一起進行演示和問答。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給 Gary Dickerson。

Thank you, Mike. In our third fiscal quarter, Applied Materials delivered results at the high end of our guidance range and record quarterly revenues. The actions we've been taking to mitigate supply chain challenges are beginning to have an impact, and we expect steady incremental improvements from here.

謝謝你，邁克。在我們的第三財季，應用材料公司的業績達到了我們指導範圍的高端，並創下了季度收入紀錄。我們為緩解供應鏈挑戰而採取的行動已開始產生影響，我們期望從這裡開始穩步逐步改進。

Resolving supply issues has required new levels of collaboration between our global teams, suppliers and customers. While all of this hard work is yielding results, global supply chains remain stretched. Demand for Applied's products is still higher than our ability to fulfill it, and our backlog continues to grow. In addition, our relentless focus on meeting customers' needs in this very difficult environment has created margin headwinds that we're working hard to overcome. We're driving actions to reduce costs and improve value capture, including price adjustments.

解決供應問題需要我們的全球團隊、供應商和客戶之間的新水平協作。儘管所有這些辛勤工作正在取得成果，但全球供應鏈仍然捉襟見肘。對 Applied 產品的需求仍然高於我們的滿足能力，而且我們的積壓訂單繼續增長。此外，在這個非常困難的環境中，我們對滿足客戶需求的不懈關注造成了我們正在努力克服的利潤逆風。我們正在推動降低成本和提高價值獲取的行動，包括價格調整。

In my prepared remarks today, I'll cover 3 key topics: first, our near-term outlook on supply and demand dynamics; second, our longer-term view of the markets and the industry's road map; and third, Applied Materials strategy, priorities and progress. After that, Brice will provide more color on our financial performance in key areas of operational focus.

在我今天準備好的演講中，我將討論 3 個關鍵主題：第一，我們對供需動態的近期展望；第二，我們對市場和行業路線圖的長期看法；第三，應用材料的戰略、重點和進展。之後，Brice 將為我們在運營重點領域的財務業績提供更多信息。

Let me begin with our near-term perspective on the market. Due to large gaps between demand and supply as well as equipment companies shipping partially finished systems and emerging components in the field, overall 2022 wafer fab equipment spending is difficult to quantify with precision. Our best estimate is that it will land somewhere in the mid-$90 billion range. For Applied, the picture is clearer. If we use the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance, we expect our wafer fab equipment revenues to be up approximately 15% for our fiscal year.

讓我從我們對市場的近期觀點開始。由於需求和供應之間的巨大差距，以及設備公司在該領域運送部分成品系統和新興組件，2022 年晶圓廠設備的總體支出難以精確量化。我們最好的估計是，它將落在 900 億美元左右的範圍內。對於應用，圖片更清晰。如果我們使用第四季度指引的中點，我們預計我們的晶圓廠設備收入將在本財年增長約 15%。

As we look ahead to 2023, there are 3 major factors shaping our view of the market. First, memory spending is expected to be lower than in 2022 as macro uncertainty and weakness in consumer electronics and PCs causes these customers to defer some capacity additions. Second, leading-edge foundry/logic looks strong with customers battling for leadership and racing to be first to implement major technology inflections. Third, ICAPS customers who serve IoT, communications, auto, power and sensor markets, are reporting areas of strength and weakness. These customers serve broad and diverse applications. They're seeing softness in consumer-centric markets, which are being impacted by macroeconomic factors.

展望 2023 年，有 3 個主要因素影響了我們對市場的看法。首先，內存支出預計將低於 2022 年，因為宏觀不確定性以及消費電子產品和個人電腦的疲軟導致這些客戶推遲增加一些容量。其次，領先的代工/邏輯看起來很強大，因為客戶正在爭奪領導地位並競相成為第一個實施主要技術變化的人。第三，為物聯網、通信、汽車、電力和傳感器市場服務的 ICAPS 客戶報告了優勢和劣勢領域。這些客戶服務於廣泛而多樣的應用。他們看到以消費者為中心的市場疲軟，這些市場受到宏觀經濟因素的影響。

Auto and industrial demand continues to be solid because those investments are driven by large inflections, such as electric vehicles and industrial automation. In these areas, chip makers are securing long-term capacity agreements that underpin their capital spending plans.

汽車和工業需求繼續保持穩定，因為這些投資是由電動汽車和工業自動化等重大變化推動的。在這些領域，芯片製造商正在簽訂支持其資本支出計劃的長期產能協議。

While it's too early to provide a forecast for 2023, we believe our business will be more resilient than in the past if there is a demand pullback in certain areas of the market. We expect Applied to remain supply-constrained for the next several quarters. We're working through our very substantial backlog of orders, which provides a buffer to in-year demand fluctuations. And in addition, customers are providing us with longer-term visibility and commitments in response to their own customers' actions to lock in the strategic capacity they need.

雖然現在提供 2023 年的預測還為時過早，但我們相信，如果市場的某些領域出現需求回落，我們的業務將比過去更有彈性。我們預計應用材料公司在接下來的幾個季度中將保持供應受限。我們正在處理大量積壓的訂單，這為年內需求波動提供了緩衝。此外，客戶為我們提供長期可見性和承諾，以響應他們自己客戶的行動，以鎖定他們所需的戰略能力。

Although we're confident in our ability to perform well in a range of market scenarios, we're mindful of the current macroeconomic trends. As a result, we are slowing down hiring while ensuring we fully fund the R&D programs and strategic operational capabilities that support our long-term growth. Regionalization of supply chains is also something new for the industry. We expect this will provide a small positive tailwind for overall wafer fab equipment spending starting in late 2023.

儘管我們對在一系列市場情景中表現良好的能力充滿信心，但我們關注當前的宏觀經濟趨勢。因此，我們正在放緩招聘速度，同時確保為支持我們長期增長的研發計劃和戰略運營能力提供充分資金。供應鏈的區域化對於該行業來說也是新事物。我們預計這將為從 2023 年底開始的整體晶圓廠設備支出提供一個小的積極推動力。

Also, because of the time-bound nature of government incentives in the U.S., Europe and Asia, we see a higher degree of certainty for these investments. Last week, I was in Washington, D.C. for the signing of the CHIPS Act and met with government officials and leaders from across the semiconductor and automotive ecosystems. I'm happy to see the critical role that semiconductors play in the economy being recognized and acted upon.

此外，由於美國、歐洲和亞洲的政府激勵措施具有時限性，我們認為這些投資具有更高的確定性。上週，我在華盛頓特區簽署了 CHIPS 法案，並會見了來自半導體和汽車生態系統的政府官員和領導人。我很高興看到半導體在經濟中發揮的關鍵作用得到認可和採取行動。

The need to build more resilient and flexible supply chains remains a key theme for these leaders, and the CHIPS Act will enable many companies to accelerate their investments in strategic capacity. I'm also excited about the potential to create a new high-velocity innovation platform in the United States to accelerate the development and commercialization of next-generation technologies.

建立更具彈性和靈活性的供應鏈的需求仍然是這些領導者的一個關鍵主題，而 CHIPS 法案將使許多公司能夠加速對戰略能力的投資。我也對在美國創建一個新的高速創新平台以加速下一代技術的開發和商業化的潛力感到興奮。

As I look further to the future, I feel very positive about the direction of the industry and our long-term opportunities at Applied. Consensus within the industry is that semiconductor revenues can reach $1 trillion before the end of the decade. That translates to a high single-digit compound annual growth rate from today.

展望未來，我對行業的發展方向和我們在 Applied 的長期機遇感到非常樂觀。業內一致認為，本世紀末半導體收入可達到 1 萬億美元。從今天開始，這意味著高個位數的複合年增長率。

In parallel, the technology road map is becoming increasingly complex. As a result, we expect equipment intensity, the ratio of wafer fab equipment investment to semi revenues to remain at today's level or increase over this period. Then the major technology road map inflections, including Gate All Around transistors, Backside Power Distribution networks, new materials for interconnect and contact, and heterogeneous integration of chips and chiplets, are enabled by materials engineering where Applied Materials is the leader, and this shifts more dollars to our available market over time. We've invested ahead of these inflections to create a portfolio of differentiated solutions that positions us to outperform as these new technologies transition to volume manufacturing.

與此同時，技術路線圖也變得越來越複雜。因此，我們預計設備強度、晶圓廠設備投資與半收入的比率將保持在今天的水平或在此期間增加。然後主要的技術路線圖拐點，包括環柵晶體管、背面配電網絡、用於互連和接觸的新材料，以及芯片和小芯片的異構集成，都通過材料工程實現，其中應用材料公司是領導者，而且這種轉變更多美元隨著時間的推移我們的可用市場。我們已經在這些變化之前進行了投資，以創建一系列差異化的解決方案，使我們在這些新技術向批量製造過渡時表現出色。

Applied Materials strategy is built upon the breadth and strength of our technology and capabilities. This provides us with a unique ability to engineer, co-optimize and integrate solutions that address our customers' highest-value technology challenges. Co-optimized solutions, where we optimize adjacent process steps, and Integrated Material Solutions, or IMS, where we optimize a combination of process steps in a single system under vacuum are becoming an increasingly important part of our product portfolio.

應用材料公司的戰略建立在我們技術和能力的廣度和實力之上。這為我們提供了一種獨特的能力來設計、共同優化和集成解決我們客戶的最高價值技術挑戰的解決方案。協同優化解決方案（我們優化相鄰工藝步驟）和集成材料解決方案（IMS）（我們優化真空下單個系統中的工藝步驟組合）正在成為我們產品組合中越來越重要的一部分。

In our recent Master Class, we talked about a breakthrough IMS approach for tungsten-only contacts that are free of conventional barrier materials. This provides significant improvements in contact resistance and is critically enabling for smaller foundry/logic nodes. The number of process steps are growing as these customers migrate to this pure metal technology, and these low-resistance integrated solutions for contact and wiring represent new multibillion-dollar revenue opportunities.

在我們最近的大師班上，我們談到了一種突破性的 IMS 方法，用於不含傳統阻隔材料的純鎢觸點。這顯著改善了接觸電阻，並為更小的代工廠/邏輯節點提供了關鍵支持。隨著這些客戶遷移到這種純金屬技術，工藝步驟的數量正在增加，這些用於接觸和佈線的低電阻集成解決方案代表了新的數十億美元的收入機會。

Over the past 2 quarters, we have secured multiple tool of record positions at all leading customers. Our ability to co-optimize materials engineering solutions with novel inspection and metrology is also driving record performance in our Process Diagnostics and Control business. We expect PDC revenues to be up almost 40% in fiscal 2022 with broad-based customer adoption of our eBeam metrology and new optical wafer inspection platforms.

在過去的兩個季度中，我們在所有主要客戶中獲得了多個創紀錄的位置。我們將材料工程解決方案與新穎的檢測和計量技術共同優化的能力也推動了我們的過程診斷和控制業務的創紀錄業績。我們預計，隨著客戶廣泛採用我們的電子束計量和新的光學晶圓檢測平台，PDC 的收入將在 2022 財年增長近 40%。

In the quarter, we also strengthened our ICAPS portfolio with a tuck-in acquisition. Picosun is a leader in batch ALD technology, and we're delighted to welcome their talented team to the Applied Materials family.

在本季度，我們還通過一次收購來加強我們的 ICAPS 產品組合。 Picosun 是批量 ALD 技術的領導者，我們很高興歡迎他們才華橫溢的團隊加入應用材料大家庭。

Turning to service. AGS delivered record quarterly revenues despite headwinds for our transactional spares and 200-millimeter equipment businesses due to supply chain constraints. The subscription portion of AGS continues to demonstrate strength. Installed base tools under long-term service agreements grew 9% over the past 12 months. Our renewal rate for these agreements continues to be strong and is currently running at 93%.

轉向服務。儘管由於供應鏈限制，我們的交易備件和 200 毫米設備業務面臨逆風，但 AGS 仍實現了創紀錄的季度收入。 AGS 的訂閱部分繼續表現出實力。根據長期服務協議安裝的基礎工具在過去 12 個月中增長了 9%。我們對這些協議的續訂率繼續保持強勁，目前為 93%。

Before I hand the call over to Brice, I'll quickly summarize. We're beginning to see gradual improvements in our supply chain, which enabled us to deliver record revenue for the quarter. We expect demand to remain higher than supply for the next several quarters, and we're continuing to drive actions to close the gap.

在我將電話交給 Brice 之前，我將快速總結一下。我們開始看到我們的供應鏈逐漸改善，這使我們能夠在本季度實現創紀錄的收入。我們預計未來幾個季度的需求將繼續高於供應，我們將繼續採取行動縮小差距。

The changing macroeconomic environment is causing some customers to adjust the timing of their investments. However, we're confident that our business will be more resilient, thanks to strong pull for a uniquely enabling technology, our large backlog, longer-term visibility from our customers and industry-wide investment in strategic regional capacity. Our long-term view of the market remains unchanged as multiple parallel secular trends drive the semiconductor and wafer fab equipment markets structurally higher. At the same time, large technology inflections that are enabled by our core capabilities in materials engineering create outsized growth opportunities for Applied Materials.

不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境導致一些客戶調整投資時機。然而，我們相信我們的業務將更有彈性，這要歸功於對獨特的支持技術的強大拉動、我們的大量積壓、客戶的長期可見性以及全行業對戰略區域能力的投資。我們對市場的長期看法保持不變，因為多個平行的長期趨勢推動半導體和晶圓廠設備市場結構性走高。與此同時，我們在材料工程方面的核心能力促成的重大技術轉變為應用材料公司創造了巨大的增長機會。

Now I'll hand the call over to Brice.

現在我將把電話交給布萊斯。

Thank you, Gary. I'd like to begin by saying thank you to our teams and our supply chain partners for helping to increase our output despite ongoing constraints and unexpected shortages. Our factory and logistics teams operated with agility, adjusting to almost daily changes in supply schedules. We are still not meeting all of our customers' demand, and solving the supply chain shortages to increase our manufacturing output remains our top priority.

謝謝你，加里。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊和供應鏈合作夥伴，儘管存在持續的限制和意外的短缺，但他們幫助我們增加了產量。我們的工廠和物流團隊運作敏捷，幾乎每天都在調整供應計劃。我們仍然沒有滿足所有客戶的需求，解決供應鏈短缺以增加我們的製造產量仍然是我們的首要任務。

Before I summarize our Q3 results, I'd like to emphasize 4 points. First, our overall demand remains healthy. Specifically, our orders remained strong in Q3, our backlog increased, overall factory utilization remains high, and customers have added 4 new factory projects to the long-term road map. There are pockets of weakness in the semiconductor market, and a number of affected customers have asked us to reschedule their capacity additions. At the same time, there are areas of strength, and we have broad market exposure and strong customer pull for technology investments.

在總結我們第三季度的結果之前，我想強調 4 點。首先，我們的整體需求保持健康。具體來說，我們在第三季度的訂單保持強勁，我們的積壓訂單增加，整體工廠利用率仍然很高，客戶在長期路線圖中增加了 4 個新工廠項目。半導體市場存在一些疲軟，一些受影響的客戶要求我們重新安排他們的產能增加。同時，也有優勢領域，我們擁有廣闊的市場敞口和強大的客戶拉動技術投資。

Second, our supply chain improved incrementally in the quarter, as Gary mentioned. We have added significant investments in talent to our supply chain teams to resolve bottlenecks and to improve our inventory and overall output.

其次，正如 Gary 所說，我們的供應鏈在本季度逐步改善。我們在供應鏈團隊中增加了對人才的大量投資，以解決瓶頸並改善我們的庫存和整體產量。

Third, we remain committed to our long-term gross margin targets. Today, we are still experiencing the effects of higher costs and unfavorable mix, which are being partially offset by pricing adjustments. We expect to incrementally improve gross margins over the coming quarters driven by forecasted improvements in manufacturing volumes, product mix, pricing and logistics costs.

第三，我們仍然致力於實現我們的長期毛利率目標。今天，我們仍在經歷成本上升和不利組合的影響，這部分被定價調整所抵消。在製造量、產品組合、定價和物流成本的預期改善的推動下，我們預計未來幾個季度的毛利率將逐步提高。

And fourth, we are confident in the industry's underlying growth trajectory and our unique materials engineering capabilities for process innovation. While we are slowing our headcount growth, we have increased our R&D spending by around 10% year-to-date and remain fully invested in enabling our customers' road maps.

第四，我們對行業的潛在增長軌跡和我們獨特的工藝創新材料工程能力充滿信心。雖然我們正在放緩員工人數增長，但我們今年迄今已將研發支出增加了約 10%，並繼續全力投資於實現客戶的路線圖。

Turning to our Q3 results. We delivered record revenue of $6.52 billion, which is in the high end of our guidance range. Non-GAAP gross margin of 46.2% declined 80 basis points quarter-on-quarter. Non-GAAP operating spending was $1.06 billion, which is right on target and up $39 million quarter-on-quarter as we increased R&D and added supply chain resources. Non-GAAP operating margin declined 60 basis points to 30% driven by the lower gross margin and headcount additions primarily in engineering. Non-GAAP earnings of $1.94 grew $0.09 quarter-on-quarter and matched our previous record.

轉向我們的第三季度業績。我們實現了創紀錄的 65.2 億美元的收入，處於我們指導範圍的高端。非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 46.2%，環比下降 80 個基點。非 GAAP 運營支出為 10.6 億美元，符合目標，隨著我們增加研發和增加供應鏈資源，環比增長 3900 萬美元。非 GAAP 營業利潤率下降 60 個基點至 30%，原因是毛利率下降和主要在工程領域增加的員工人數。非 GAAP 收益為 1.94 美元，環比增長 0.09 美元，與我們之前的記錄相符。

Turning to the segments. The semi systems team did a great job maximizing shipments, growing revenue by $276 million, up 6% quarter-on-quarter. Segment non-GAAP operating margin declined 100 basis points sequentially to 36.1% due to higher materials, freight, expedite and labor costs, partially offset by price adjustments.

轉向細分市場。半導體系統團隊在最大限度地提高出貨量方面做得很好，收入增長了 2.76 億美元，環比增長 6%。由於材料、運費、加急和勞動力成本增加，部分非公認會計準則營業利潤率下降 100 個基點至 36.1%，部分被價格調整抵消。

The AGS team delivered record quarterly revenue, growing $37 million or 3% quarter-on-quarter. We continued to deliver healthy year-over-year growth in subscription revenue, while the supply chain shortages constrained our growth in transactional parts and 200-millimeter systems. AGS non-GAAP operating margin was 30.6% and slightly up quarter-over-quarter.

AGS 團隊實現了創紀錄的季度收入，環比增長 3700 萬美元或 3%。我們繼續實現訂閱收入的健康同比增長，而供應鏈短缺限制了我們在交易部件和 200 毫米系統方面的增長。 AGS 非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 30.6%，環比略有上升。

I'll take a minute to share a few observations about AGS. Next month, we'll host a services Master Class where you'll have an opportunity to learn more about our strategy to increase our recurring revenue. The 3 key drivers are the growth of our installed base, equipment service intensity and long-term service agreements. AGS is making excellent progress toward our 2024 financial model. We exited Q3 tracking around $500 million ahead of the base case of our AGS revenue plan and around $250 million ahead of our high case. In addition, the services business is capital-light and produces excellent cash flow.

我將花一點時間分享一些關於 AGS 的觀察。下個月，我們將舉辦服務大師班，您將有機會了解更多關於我們增加經常性收入的策略。三個關鍵驅動因素是我們安裝基礎的增長、設備服務強度和長期服務協議。 AGS 正在朝著我們的 2024 年財務模型邁進。我們在 AGS 收入計劃的基本情況之前退出了第三季度跟踪大約 5 億美元，在我們的高情況之前大約 2.5 億美元。此外，服務業務資本輕，現金流量大。

Moving on to display now. The market is weaker due to its high exposure to consumer portion of the economy. During the quarter, we lowered spending in line with the current market environment. Our display revenue declined by $48 million or 13% to $333 million. The business contributed $70 million of non-GAAP operating profit, which is down sequentially by $12 million or 15%.

現在繼續展示。由於其對經濟中消費者部分的高敞口，市場較弱。在本季度，我們根據當前的市場環境降低了支出。我們的顯示收入下降了 4800 萬美元或 13%，至 3.33 億美元。該業務貢獻了 7000 萬美元的非公認會計原則營業利潤，環比下降了 1200 萬美元或 15%。

Turning to our cash flows. We generated $1.47 billion of operating cash flow during the quarter, which was 23% of revenue. We returned $1.23 billion or 97% of free cash flow to our shareholders, deploying $1 billion to repurchase 9.8 million shares of company stock and paying $225 million in dividends. We also deployed around $440 million for 2 strategic acquisitions. We expanded our ALD portfolio with the addition of Picosun, and we acquired a talented simulation software team. Year-to-date, we have produced over $4.5 billion in operating cash flow and nearly $4 billion in free cash flow and returned $5.25 billion to our shareholders.

轉向我們的現金流。我們在本季度產生了 14.7 億美元的運營現金流，佔收入的 23%。我們向股東返還了 12.3 億美元或 97% 的自由現金流，部署了 10 億美元回購了 980 萬股公司股票，並支付了 2.25 億美元的股息。我們還為 2 項戰略收購部署了約 4.4 億美元。隨著 Picosun 的加入，我們擴展了 ALD 產品組合，並獲得了一支才華橫溢的仿真軟件團隊。年初至今，我們產生了超過 45 億美元的經營現金流和近 40 億美元的自由現金流，並向股東返還了 52.5 億美元。

Now I'll share our guidance for Q4. We expect revenue to increase to $6.65 billion plus or minus $400 million. We expect non-GAAP EPS to be $2 plus or minus $0.18. Within this outlook, we expect semi systems revenue to increase to $4.93 billion or up 14% year-over-year. We expect AGS revenue to increase to $1.43 billion or up 4% year-over-year with continued healthy growth in services and ongoing supply chain limitations in 200-millimeter systems and transactional parts. Display revenue should decline to around $250 million. We expect to incrementally increase our non-GAAP gross margin to 46.4%. And we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to increase slightly to $1.08 billion. We are modeling a tax rate of 11.8%.

現在我將分享我們對第四季度的指導。我們預計收入將增至 66.5 億美元上下 4 億美元。我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益為 2 美元正負 0.18 美元。在此展望中，我們預計半導體系統收入將增至 49.3 億美元，同比增長 14%。我們預計 AGS 收入將增長至 14.3 億美元或同比增長 4%，因為服務持續健康增長以及 200 毫米系統和交易部件的持續供應鏈限制。顯示收入應該會下降到 2.5 億美元左右。我們預計將我們的非公認會計原則毛利率逐步提高至 46.4%。我們預計非 GAAP 運營費用將小幅增加至 10.8 億美元。我們正在模擬 11.8% 的稅率。

Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to summarize our company's position in the current environment. We continue to see very strong customer pull for advanced technology in all of our markets, and our backlog continues to grow. We believe some of our customers will moderate their capacity additions in areas that have been impacted by weak consumer spending. However, I expect Applied's business to be more resilient than in past periods for 3 reasons. One is that we have strong exposure to technology investments, particularly in the foundry/logic market, which has grown to become approximately 2/3 of wafer fab equipment spending. Second is that we have multiple quarters of backlog for products that are essential to our customers' technology road maps, and we expect to continue to increase supply over the next several quarters. Third, that our services business has grown to over $5.5 billion in size and generates 87% of revenue from recurring demand for parts, services and software.

在我們開始問答之前，我想總結一下我們公司在當前環境中的位置。在我們所有的市場中，我們繼續看到非常強大的客戶對先進技術的拉動，我們的積壓訂單繼續增長。我們相信，我們的一些客戶將在受消費者支出疲軟影響的領域中緩和他們的產能增加。但是，我預計應用材料公司的業務將比過去更具彈性，原因有 3 個。一是我們擁有強大的技術投資敞口，特別是在代工/邏輯市場，該市場已增長到晶圓廠設備支出的約 2/3。其次，我們有多個季度積壓的產品對客戶的技術路線圖至關重要，我們預計未來幾個季度將繼續增加供應。第三，我們的服務業務規模已增長到超過 55 億美元，87% 的收入來自對零件、服務和軟件的經常性需求。

And now, Mike, please begin the Q&A.

現在，邁克，請開始問答。

Thanks, Brice. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，布萊斯。 （操作員說明）操作員，讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from C.J. Muse of Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess a question for me would be in light of record backlog and extended lead times, and then some of the puts and takes around customers moving out production plans, how are you thinking about the timing of easing of supply constraints? How are you thinking about kind of internal tool production into 2023, and as part of that driving, I assume, gross margins higher throughout that time? Would love to hear your thoughts around that.

我想對我來說一個問題是考慮到創紀錄的積壓和延長的交貨時間，然後是一些客戶提出的生產計劃，您如何考慮緩解供應限制的時機？您如何看待到 2023 年的內部工俱生產，我認為，作為推動的一部分，毛利率在此期間會更高？很想听聽你對此的想法。

C.J., it's Brice. Just -- yes, good question on supply constraints and timing versus the demand environment, et cetera. So let me explain what we've done the last couple of weeks.

C.J.，是布萊斯。只是 - 是的，關於供應限制和時間與需求環境等的好問題。所以讓我解釋一下我們在過去幾週所做的事情。

We just went through a cycle where we reconfirmed all of our 2023 demand with our customers, something we do once or twice per quarter on a regular basis. And it gives the customer base a chance to signal if they want to make changes, they want to make adds, they want to make drops. And in a constrained environment, that lets us balance our supply across the customer base in the best way.

我們剛剛經歷了一個週期，我們與客戶再次確認了 2023 年的所有需求，我們每季度定期做一兩次。它讓客戶群有機會表明他們是否想要做出改變，他們想要增加，他們想要放棄。在受限的環境中，這讓我們能夠以最佳方式平衡整個客戶群的供應。

So we've just completed that. And there are a number of changes, but what we see for 2023 and the next 3-plus quarters, as we said in our initial comments, is that demand is still significantly above our ability to supply, but we've got the confidence that we just reconfirmed all of that. And then when we think about supply, our comments -- we've invested significantly in the supply chain. So we're working to identify issues and loosen the supply chain and solve problems in the supply chain both at our direct suppliers and our secondary suppliers. So our expectation is that we'll increase output for the next several quarters and continue to work on that backlog, which, as you highlighted, has been -- has continued to grow.

所以我們剛剛完成了。並且有許多變化，但正如我們在最初的評論中所說，我們看到 2023 年和接下來的 3 個多季度是需求仍然大大高於我們的供應能力，但我們有信心我們剛剛再次確認了這一切。然後當我們考慮供應時，我們的評論——我們在供應鏈上進行了大量投資。因此，我們正在努力發現問題並放鬆供應鏈，解決我們直接供應商和二級供應商的供應鏈問題。因此，我們的期望是，我們將在接下來的幾個季度增加產量，並繼續處理積壓的工作，正如你所強調的那樣，積壓一直在持續增長。

C.J., this is Gary. I guess also relative to supply chain, what we've been -- certainly the Zero-COVID lockdown in Shanghai, March 28, that set us back relative to overall supply chain. We're continuing to make incremental progress. And I just -- right now, we see it still being incremental going forward. We're doing everything we can, making investments, adding manpower, but it's more incremental.

C.J.，這是加里。我想也相對於供應鏈，我們一直在——當然是 3 月 28 日在上海的零新冠疫情封鎖，這讓我們相對於整個供應鏈倒退了。我們正在繼續取得漸進式進展。而且我只是 - 現在，我們看到它仍然是漸進式的。我們正在盡我們所能，進行投資，增加人力，但它更具增量性。

And I think the same thing is true on margins. I think last quarter, we said that we would see incremental progress from where we were. And I think that's really the direction both for supply chain and for margins is more incremental improvement throughout '22 and going into '23.

我認為在利潤率上也是如此。我認為上個季度，我們說過我們會看到從現在開始的增量進展。而且我認為這對於供應鍊和利潤來說，真正的方向是在整個 22 年和 23 年期間進行更多的增量改進。

Our next question comes from Mark Lipacis of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Mark Lipacis。

I guess the question I have is, Gary, maybe if you could help us understand the mechanics around what you guys do when your customers come in and say, oh, we're adjusting the -- I think you used the expression adjusting the timing of the orders. So do you push there? Are you able to like take the slot that you have allocated for them and push them back a quarter or 2? Or do you -- at some point, do you just say, "Listen, we can't push this back anymore. You either got to take it or go to the end of the line." If you could just provide some color about what you're seeing real time on the ground. Is -- like how many people are pushing back? Is it a quarter? Is it 2 quarters? And the mechanics operationally about how you guys manage that process.

我想我的問題是，加里，也許你能幫助我們了解當你的客戶進來說，哦，我們正在調整——我認為你使用了調整時間的表達方式時，你們所做的事情的機制的訂單。那你推那裡嗎？您是否能夠喜歡佔用您為他們分配的位置並將他們推後四分之一或 2？或者你——在某個時候，你只是說，“聽著，我們不能再把它推回去了。你要么接受它，要么走到最後。”如果您可以提供一些關於您在地面上實時看到的內容的顏色。是——就像有多少人在反擊？是四分之一嗎？是2個季度嗎？以及關於你們如何管理該過程的操作機制。

Yes. I know Gary's going to comment. I'll just make a quick comment, Mark. When we go out and test the backlog with the customers, if they want to make changes, a lot of times, that's a mutually beneficial change. We have another customer that's interested in taking the tool because the demand is exceeding supply at this point. So the first thing we do is try to accommodate those changes. We're not trying to demand the customers stay on the schedule that they have, et cetera. So we try to be flexible. And that was really the point of going out and retesting and reverifying all of the demand that we have across the customer base. So Gary, you may want to add to that.

是的。我知道加里會發表評論。馬克，我會快速發表評論。當我們出去和客戶一起測試積壓的工作時，如果他們想要做出改變，很多時候，這是一個互惠互利的改變。我們有另一位客戶對使用該工具感興趣，因為此時需求超過供應。所以我們要做的第一件事就是嘗試適應這些變化。我們並沒有試圖要求客戶按照他們所擁有的時間表等等。所以我們盡量靈活。這真的是走出去重新測試和重新驗證我們在整個客戶群中的所有需求的重點。所以加里，你可能想補充一下。

No. I think that's exactly right. Again, the challenge we face right now -- again, many of our customers are really driving major technology inflections. And Mark, I think you see also, especially in high-performance logic, everyone is racing to these new inflections. So we just have tremendous demand from those customers in ICAPS, automotive, industrial automation. So unfortunately, we're not able to supply to that demand. And as Brice said, memory is weaker. And we try to manage and work with the customers to come up with the right outcome for them and for us.

不，我認為這是完全正確的。再說一次，我們現在面臨的挑戰——再一次，我們的許多客戶真的在推動重大的技術變革。馬克，我想你也看到了，尤其是在高性能邏輯方面，每個人都在競相適應這些新的變化。因此，我們對 ICAPS、汽車、工業自動化領域的客戶有著巨大的需求。所以不幸的是，我們無法滿足這種需求。正如布萊斯所說，記憶力較弱。我們嘗試管理並與客戶合作，為他們和我們提供正確的結果。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I'm trying to reconcile the 2 things, right? One, I think, Brice, you mentioned you're going to be increasing capacity over the next several quarters. But then from a demand perspective, I believe, Gary, you said that memory could be down. I think you've said kind of mixed views on ICAPS, but then leading-edge should be up.

我試圖調和這兩件事，對吧？一，我認為，Brice，你提到你將在接下來的幾個季度增加產能。但是從需求的角度來看，我相信，加里，你說內存可能會下降。我認為您對 ICAPS 的看法不一，但領先優勢應該會上升。

So my specific question is based on -- I know you're not giving next year's guidance per se. But based on what you see, are we looking at kind of a garden variety, flat to down 5%, 10% in terms of the spending environment? Or is it very different than that view? Just so that we have some baseline view of how you're thinking about the industry going into the next year given you do plan to increase supply.

所以我的具體問題是基於——我知道你本身並沒有給出明年的指導。但根據你所看到的，我們是否正在尋找一種花園品種，在消費環境方面持平到下降 5%、10%？或者它與那個觀點有很大不同？只是為了讓我們對您如何考慮明年的行業有一些基本看法，因為您確實計劃增加供應。

Vivek, it's Brice. So to reconcile those 2, I think the first thing to be clear on from our side is that demand for the next several quarters, 3-plus, is far higher than supply. So we are going to concentrate, like we say, on increasing our supply and we'll do our best to do that over the next several quarters. And that's our expectation, is demand will stay above where we can supply across that time period.

維維克，是布萊斯。因此，為了協調這 2 個問題，我認為我們首先要明確的是，未來幾個季度（3 個以上）的需求遠高於供應。因此，就像我們說的那樣，我們將集中精力增加供應，我們將在接下來的幾個季度中盡最大努力做到這一點。這是我們的預期，在這段時間內需求將保持在我們可以供應的水平之上。

So I think someone said it before that we're underserving the market so far that -- such that if there's a change in demand, it's still above where our supply line is. That's the perspective we have. And if you think about -- or if you're asking about '23, like we said, it's too early to make a call on '23, but what we would point out is different areas of the market, sure, are having some weakness, some inventory issues, other areas are very strong and are on schedule to build the processes that they need for customer products that are also on schedule. So we think those puts and takes more or less will continue the demand signal for us into next year.

所以我認為之前有人說過，到目前為止，我們對市場的服務不足——以至於如果需求發生變化，它仍然高於我們的供應線。這就是我們的觀點。如果你想——或者如果你問的是 23 年，就像我們說的那樣，現在打電話給 23 年還為時過早，但我們要指出的是市場的不同領域，當然，有一些弱點，一些庫存問題，其他領域非常強大，並且正在按計劃為客戶產品建立所需的流程，這些流程也按計劃進行。因此，我們認為這些看跌期權或多或少將繼續為我們提供明年的需求信號。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Stacy Rasgon。

I was wondering if you could comment separately on your memory and your foundry/logic backlog. So I assume the memory backlog is coming down given it's weaker, but it sounds like your overall backlog is still increasing if your demand is still well exceeding supply. So is it a case of like your foundry backlog is increasing more than your memory backlog is shrinking? Or like how do I think about the different pieces of that?

我想知道您是否可以分別評論您的內存和您的代工廠/邏輯積壓。因此，我認為內存積壓正在下降，因為它較弱，但如果您的需求仍然遠遠超過供應，聽起來您的整體積壓仍在增加。那麼，您的代工廠積壓工作是否比您的內存積壓工作減少的多？或者像我如何看待其中的不同部分？

Yes. Exactly right, Stacy. This is Brice. Definitely, the backlog is increasing. And definitely, the foundry/logic backlog is the strongest or -- yes, strongest component of that in terms of orders and adds to our order book. I'd say that's good.

是的。完全正確，斯泰西。這是布萊斯。毫無疑問，積壓的工作正在增加。毫無疑問，就訂單而言，代工廠/邏輯積壓是最強的，或者——是的，最強的組成部分，並添加到我們的訂單簿中。我會說這很好。

We know there has been reductions on the memory side. I don't actually know if the memory side is down in total overall, but I think that's a fair way to look at it. Some customers have reduced backlog on memory, but overall foundry/logic and some of the ICAPS customers are driving an outweighing increase on the positive side.

我們知道內存方面有所減少。我實際上不知道內存方面是否總體下降，但我認為這是一個公平的看待它的方式。一些客戶減少了內存的積壓，但整體代工/邏輯和一些 ICAPS 客戶正在推動積極的增長。

Stacy, this is Gary. So also the foundry/logic is an increasing percentage of overall wafer fab equipment. So if you look at the percentages, foundry/logic is really around 2/3 of total wafer fab equipment. And so certainly, the rates for competitiveness in high performance, you see that with companies making significant investments. ICAPS, you've seen a lot of announcements with companies making long-term investments in the ICAPS capacity. So certainly, you see that in the increasing percentage of foundry/logic in the overall market. So yes, I think that what Brice said and what you had also asked in your question, certainly, foundry/logic is strong. And that backlog still, unfortunately, we're not able to meet demand.

斯泰西，這是加里。因此，代工廠/邏輯在整個晶圓廠設備中所佔的比例也越來越大。因此，如果您查看百分比，代工/邏輯實際上佔晶圓廠設備總數的 2/3 左右。當然，高性能競爭力的比率，你會看到公司進行了大量投資。 ICAPS，您已經看到很多公司宣布對 ICAPS 容量進行長期投資。所以當然，你會看到整個市場中代工/邏輯的比例越來越高。所以是的，我認為 Brice 所說的以及你在問題中也提出的問題，當然，代工/邏輯是強大的。不幸的是，積壓的訂單仍然無法滿足需求。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Atif Malik;Citi Investment Research^ Question for Brice. Brice, some of your U.S. peers had talked about expanding China restrictions to sub-14-nanometer. Did that impact your July or October quarter outlook? And if you can remind us of your total China sales, what is display systems versus silicon?

Atif Malik；Citi Investment Research^ Brice 的問題。 Brice，你的一些美國同行曾談到將中國的限制擴大到 14 納米以下。這是否影響了您 7 月或 10 月的季度展望？如果您能提醒我們您在中國的總銷售額，那麼顯示系統與硅的對比是什麼？

Thanks, Atif. Yes, first of all, we did get the same notice as our peers did on that. So that is sub-14-nanometer shipments to China customers. And it did not impact our July quarter and very small for October quarter, and that's included in our guidance. So that part's clear. And we will work to make sure that we're in full compliance with all the changes on trade rules as we always have. So -- but nothing significant in July or October periods. And then could you repeat the display question?

謝謝，阿提夫。是的，首先，我們確實得到了與同行相同的通知。這就是向中國客戶的亞 14 納米出貨量。它並沒有影響我們的 7 月季度，對 10 月季度的影響非常小，這包含在我們的指導中。所以那部分很清楚。我們將努力確保我們一如既往地完全遵守貿易規則的所有變化。所以 - 但在 7 月或 10 月期間沒有什麼重要的。然後你能重複顯示問題嗎？

I'll take it. Atif, thanks for the question. So we're not going to break out the exact amount of our business in China, but display, most of our display revenue does come from China. And then you have the global customers and the domestic customers, so that's the -- and you have systems and service for all of those different businesses. So not going to break out all of those different percentages.

我要買它。 Atif，謝謝你的提問。所以我們不會透露我們在中國業務的確切數量，但是顯示，我們的大部分顯示收入確實來自中國。然後你有全球客戶和國內客戶，這就是 - 你有所有這些不同業務的系統和服務。所以不會打破所有這些不同的百分比。

But what I would say is that -- and I think we've talked about this before, that by far, the majority of our semi foundry/logic business in China is ICAPS, which is on the trailing nodes.

但我要說的是——我想我們之前已經討論過這個問題，到目前為止，我們在中國的大部分半導體/邏輯業務是 ICAPS，它位於尾隨節點上。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

Brice, if overall WFE is down, say, 10% next year, how should we think about AMAT's total revenues, including semi and services, given the strong backlog? And more importantly, how to think about the EPS, if say WFE is down 10%? Brice, any color you could give there and how to think about revenue and operating leverage in that environment would be very helpful.

Brice，如果整體 WFE 下降，比如說，明年下降 10%，考慮到大量積壓，我們應該如何看待 AMAT 的總收入，包括半導體和服務？更重要的是，如果說 WFE 下跌 10%，EPS 怎麼看？ Brice，您可以在此處給出的任何顏色以及如何考慮在該環境中的收入和運營槓桿都會非常有幫助。

Sure. Thanks, Krish. So the first thing, just to remind investors, you kind of made the point in the question about our backlog. We do have, as you said, a large backlog, and we expect for the next 3-plus quarters, we'll just be working on raising our output and serving that backlog. But if you want to do a what if, if revenue goes down or if WFE goes down, the first thing I would remind investors also is that our services business doesn't fluctuate or correlate 100% with WFE. It's driven off our installed base, which grows every time we ship a tool. And the utilization across the entire factory network that we're serving, transactional spares and subscription service agreements across that.

當然。謝謝，克里什。所以第一件事，只是為了提醒投資者，你在關於我們積壓的問題中提出了觀點。正如您所說，我們確實有大量積壓，我們預計在接下來的三個多季度中，我們將致力於提高產量並為積壓提供服務。但是，如果您想做一個假設，如果收入下降或 WFE 下降，我要提醒投資者的第一件事是，我們的服務業務不會波動或與 WFE 100% 相關。它脫離了我們的安裝基礎，每次我們發布工具時都會增長。以及我們服務的整個工廠網絡的利用率、交易備件和訂閱服務協議。

So that portion of our revenue tends to dampen any weakness that we would have from a lower WFE. I would just highlight that for people that are thinking model. So whatever would change on WFE and change on the equipment side, it would be a dampened signal on the services piece of the business.

因此，我們的這部分收入往往會抑制我們因 WFE 較低而導致的任何弱點。我只想強調那些正在思考模型的人。因此，無論 WFE 和設備方面發生什麼變化，都會對業務的服務部分產生減弱的信號。

And then for overall modeling purposes, I would look at probably as a proxy year 2019 to see how the business reacted to a lower revenue environment, where you can look at the margin performance in 2019, which was down 1 or 2 points. And you can look at spending where it was controlled, relatively flat. I think those would be the same sort of reaction the company would be able to implement in that sort of environment if you were doing a what if, which again is in our forecast.

然後出於整體建模目的，我可能會將 2019 年視為代理年，以了解該業務對較低收入環境的反應，您可以在其中查看 2019 年的利潤率表現，下降 1 或 2 個百分點。你可以看看支出在控制範圍內，相對平穩。我認為，如果您在做假設，那麼公司將能夠在那種環境中實施相同的反應，這又在我們的預測中。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, I was hoping you could expand on some of the comments you made regarding the CHIPS Act and the implications for the broader industry, but more importantly, your business. I think you stated in your prepared remarks that you expect it to be a small tailwind or a minor tailwind starting in late 2023.

加里，我希望您可以擴展您對 CHIPS 法案的一些評論以及對更廣泛行業的影響，但更重要的是，您的業務。我認為您在準備好的評論中表示，您預計從 2023 年末開始，這將是一個小順風或小順風。

First of all, if you could sort of quantify that for us for '23 and '24, that would be super helpful. And then more importantly, how has the conversations you're having with your customers changed since the CHIPS Act has gone through? I guess the main question that I get from investors is if a big foundry in Taiwan decides to build capacity in the U.S., isn't it sort of a zero-sum game where you sort of subtract from what could have happened in Taiwan and you just kind of take that over to the U.S.? So net-net, isn't it sort of a zero-sum? But how would you kind of respond to that?

首先，如果你能對我們在 23 年和 24 年進行量化，那將非常有幫助。然後更重要的是，自 CHIPS 法案通過以來，您與客戶的對話發生了怎樣的變化？我想我從投資者那裡得到的主要問題是，如果台灣的一家大型代工廠決定在美國建設產能，這不是一種零和遊戲，你從台灣可能發生的事情中減去，然後你只是把它帶到美國？所以net-net，這不是一種零和遊戲嗎？但是你會如何回應呢？

Yes. Thank you, Toshiya. So on the CHIPS Act, first, I'd say just I am very happy to see the CHIPS and Science Act pass and become law. That's really positive to the United States and the overall industry. And then relative to the investment question that you asked, I would look at it as a small positive tailwind for overall wafer fab equipment spending and really timing-wise, starting in late 2023. If you look at the investments, at least the ones that have been announced so far, it's really in high-performance logic, some ICAPS investments, those kinds of things.

是的。謝謝你，東宮。所以關於 CHIPS 法案，首先我想說的是，我很高興看到 CHIPS 和科學法案通過並成為法律。這對美國和整個行業來說都是非常積極的。然後相對於你提出的投資問題，我認為這對整體晶圓廠設備支出和真正的時機而言是一個小的積極推動力，從 2023 年底開始。如果你看一下投資，至少是那些到目前為止已經宣布，它真的是在高性能邏輯，一些 ICAPS 投資，諸如此類的事情。

So as I mentioned earlier, again, 2/3 of wafer fab equipment is in that foundry/logic space today. And so that's going to be incrementally positive going into late '23 and beyond. Those investments also are time-bound. If you look at the incentives, there are certain time frames where the funding is available and investments have to be made. So that creates a higher degree of certainty. I would say, as those companies -- I've talked to many of them. And as they move to new locations, there is start-up costs and some incremental less efficiency, as they start those fabs and especially for our service business, that's an incremental positive.

因此，正如我之前提到的，今天 2/3 的晶圓廠設備位於代工廠/邏輯領域。因此，到 23 年末及以後，這將是越來越積極的。這些投資也有時間限制。如果您查看激勵措施，就會發現在某些時間範圍內可以獲得資金並且必須進行投資。因此，這創造了更高程度的確定性。我想說，作為那些公司——我已經和他們中的許多人談過了。當他們搬到新的地點時，會有啟動成本和一些增量的效率降低，因為他們啟動這些晶圓廠，特別是對於我們的服務業務，這是一個增量的積極因素。

So I think you'd see small incremental spending late '23 and beyond as all of those investments and those factories are starting up. Over time, Toshiya, I think really as they -- it really depends on the scale of those factories. A bigger factory is more efficient than a smaller factory. And so until they build them out, which will take many, many years, there will be a degree of less efficiency for some period of time. But again, if you look at it in the grand scale of overall WFE, it's not a huge tailwind, but it's definitely a tailwind.

因此，我認為隨著所有這些投資和工廠的啟動，您會看到 23 年末及以後的小幅增量支出。隨著時間的推移，Toshiya，我認為真的和他們一樣——這真的取決於那些工廠的規模。大工廠比小工廠更有效率。因此，在他們建造它們之前，這將需要很多很多年，一段時間內效率會有所降低。但同樣，如果你從整個 WFE 的宏偉規模來看，這不是一個巨大的順風，但絕對是順風。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

I wanted to expand on some comments that Brice had on services. Maybe this is a plug for your upcoming Master Class. But I mean in the event of a weaker WFE environment next year, you have several positive buffers. I think the biggest one is that your services business historically does not decline during downturns. In fact, over the past 11 years, and I think that's 4 WFE down cycles, I believe that there's only been 1 year that AGS was down.

我想擴展 Brice 對服務的一些評論。也許這是您即將到來的大師班的一個插件。但我的意思是，如果明年 WFE 環境較弱，你有幾個積極的緩衝。我認為最大的一個是您的服務業務在歷史上不會在低迷時期下降。事實上，在過去的 11 年中，我認為這是 4 個 WFE 下降週期，我相信 AGS 下降只有 1 年。

And it's driven a pretty stable like 8% to 10% sort of revenue CAGR over that period of time. So outside of the annuity-like subscription contracts that I assume will be partially offset by, let's say, 200-millimeter equipment sales, which may fall off in a weak WFE environment, what is the team doing to ensure continued outperformance of services doing WFE weakness and your confidence on driving growth in services if WFE is down next year?

在這段時間裡，它推動了一個相當穩定的收入複合年增長率，比如 8% 到 10%。因此，在我認為將被部分抵消的類似年金的訂閱合同之外，比如說 200 毫米設備銷售，這可能會在疲軟的 WFE 環境中下降，團隊正在採取什麼措施來確保 WFE 服務的持續表現出色如果明年 WFE 下降，您是否有信心推動服務業的增長？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Harlan. If I got it there, what we're focused on, the 2 drivers for that business, as you kind of hinted to, are really the installed base that grows every time we ship a tool, and then as you highlighted, our ability to serve that installed base both through transactional support spares and services, and then the subscription agreements that we have with customers that offer spares, plus insights that we have across the network on how to optimize for yield and how to optimize for capabilities.

是的。謝謝你的問題，哈蘭。如果我明白了，我們關注的是，正如你暗示的那樣，該業務的兩個驅動因素實際上是每次我們發布工具時都會增長的安裝基礎，然後正如你強調的那樣，我們的能力通過交易支持備件和服務，以及我們與提供備件的客戶簽訂的訂閱協議，以及我們在整個網絡中關於如何優化產量和如何優化功能的見解，為該安裝基礎提供服務。

So I think what we're doing is increasing our portfolio of service offerings that make it more valuable to the customer. It allows them to ramp more quickly, reach higher yields and really benefit from the intelligence that Applied has across the whole ecosystem of tools that they don't have potentially on their own. I think that's the focus area for the company, and that's what gives us confidence that as that installed base grows, we'll be able to continue to grow our subscription agreements.

所以我認為我們正在做的是增加我們的服務產品組合，使其對客戶更有價值。它使他們能夠更快地提高產量，達到更高的產量，並真正受益於 Applied 在整個工俱生態系統中擁有的智能，而這些智能是他們自己沒有的。我認為這是公司的重點領域，這讓我們相信隨著安裝基礎的增長，我們將能夠繼續擴大我們的訂閱協議。

And just the last piece is, you're right, we have the same analysis on not being 100% correlated with WFE. And even as -- if there's changes in WFE or weakness in the revenue and the rest of the business, it's really about the underlying utilization in the factories that exist and the need for services and intelligence in those factories. So I think those are the key drivers.

最後一點是，你是對的，我們對與 WFE 沒有 100% 相關性有相同的分析。即使 - 如果 WFE 發生變化或收入和其他業務出現疲軟，這實際上與現有工廠的基本利用率以及這些工廠對服務和智能的需求有關。所以我認為這些是關鍵驅動因素。

Harlan, just -- thanks for reminding people about the Master Class coming up here next month. The one thing that I think has helped us also -- so if you -- you talked about 10, 11 years. If you go back over that time period, we, I think, close to doubled our percentage of subscription agreements versus transactional. So certainly -- and we've increased the length of those agreements to 2.5 years. So that percentage of agreements being so much higher, and it's still growing, that makes that business more resilient.

哈蘭，謝謝你提醒人們下個月要來這裡的大師班。我認為對我們也有幫助的一件事——所以如果你——你談到了 10 年、11 年。如果你回到那個時期，我認為，我們訂閱協議的百分比與交易協議相比幾乎翻了一番。當然，我們已將這些協議的期限延長至 2.5 年。因此，協議的百分比要高得多，而且還在增長，這使得該業務更具彈性。

And I think that also relative to the environment we've been in, where everybody is focused with chip shortages, producing good chips out, it really has also highlighted more value in our services. Things like managed part services, where people have the parts available versus competing for what's available from a transactional perspective, along with all the things that Brice talked about, I think that's really helped highlight the value of these longer-term subscription agreements for our customers.

而且我認為，相對於我們所處的環境，每個人都專注於芯片短缺，生產出好的芯片，這也確實突出了我們服務的更多價值。諸如託管零件服務之類的事情，人們擁有可用的零件，而不是從交易的角度競爭可用的零件，以及 Brice 談到的所有事情，我認為這確實有助於突出這些長期訂閱協議對我們客戶的價值.

Harlan, it's Mike. I think that earlier I gave the right timing for the next Master Class. It's in 5 weeks from today, but I think I heard myself say May 26, which is the last date. It's September 22, of course. So thank you.

哈蘭，是邁克。我認為早些時候我為下一屆大師班提供了正確的時間。距離今天還有 5 週，但我想我聽到自己說 5 月 26 日，這是最後一個日期。當然是 9 月 22 日。所以謝謝。

Our next question comes from Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

You talked about still seeing strength in -- especially in leading-edge, foundry/logic investments, but there's also some consumer-driven demand there as well. So I guess, have you maybe seen a change in terms of like the capacity that your customers are looking to put in place there, but still not change their technology road maps?

你談到仍然看到實力 - 特別是在領先的代工/邏輯投資方面，但那裡也有一些消費者驅動的需求。所以我想，您是否可能看到您的客戶希望在那裡實施的容量方面發生了變化，但仍然沒有改變他們的技術路線圖？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Joe. Yes, the way I would think about it -- first of all, I think, yes, we've highlighted that demand is higher than our supply level. There's been changes. I think in total, that demand came down a little bit, but it's still above what we're able to supply for the out-quarters.

是的。謝謝你的問題，喬。是的，我會這麼想——首先，我認為，是的，我們已經強調了需求高於我們的供應水平。發生了變化。我認為總體而言，需求有所下降，但仍高於我們能夠為外部季度提供的供應。

But I think the way we think about it for a leading-edge foundry is they're building processes that their customers are building products on, and they need to be able to hit those schedules for the customer products. So they're fairly committed to getting that technology in place.

但我認為我們對領先代工廠的看法是，他們正在構建客戶正在構建產品的流程，並且他們需要能夠為客戶產品按計劃進行。所以他們相當致力於讓這項技術到位。

And then you're right, the volumes will fluctuate depending on what the market is for those products. But if you're building a logic node for a product 2 years from now, you're really thinking about what the market is 2 years from now when you're putting that equipment in place. So it's not as simple as just looking at the current quarter's macroeconomic environment, GDP and lowering your demand. You really have to think about that forward-looking function. But the dynamics -- you have the dynamics, right? We just retested all of the demand for next year, and that's what all the customers are thinking about.

然後你是對的，數量會根據這些產品的市場情況而波動。但是，如果你正在為 2 年後的產品構建邏輯節點，那麼當你安裝該設備時，你真的在考慮 2 年後的市場是什麼。所以這並不是僅僅看當前季度的宏觀經濟環境、GDP 和降低需求那麼簡單。您確實必須考慮該前瞻性功能。但是動力——你有動力，對吧？我們剛剛重新測試了明年的所有需求，這就是所有客戶都在考慮的問題。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

Around some of the mixed signals around what's happening this time around. And on one hand, customers are pushing out, but you also mentioned that you're getting long-term commitments from some other customers. I was wondering what that means because it kind of sounds like you're confident that foundry/logic is going to hold up at this time even as memory pushes out. And that's not usually how it works. Is it something that there's such a concentration of leading-edge foundry capacity and there's going to be others such as your neighbor that are trying to compete to get back in the foundry business? Is that what's different this time? Because I'm hearing these mixed signals, and there's something obviously different. So I'm just wondering if you can call on your past knowledge to help on that.

圍繞這次發生的一些混合信號。一方面，客戶正在推出，但您也提到您正在從其他一些客戶那裡獲得長期承諾。我想知道這意味著什麼，因為這聽起來像是你有信心即使內存耗盡，代工廠/邏輯也會在這個時候站穩腳跟。這通常不是它的工作方式。是否存在如此集中的領先代工能力，並且會有其他人（例如您的鄰居）試圖通過競爭重新進入代工業務？這一次有什麼不同嗎？因為我聽到了這些混合的信號，而且有一些明顯不同的東西。所以我只是想知道你是否可以利用你過去的知識來幫助解決這個問題。

Sure, Tim. Just 2 comments. The first is we've definitely expanded the horizon with all of our customers from a planning perspective. They're giving us longer signals than before and giving us the opportunity to engage in the discussion on capacity planning with them. And second, some customers are also giving us a sense that -- or a promise basically that they'll operate within a certain band of capacity. So they're giving us additional confidence to what we should plan for from a high-confidence perspective, and that's a little bit different than what we've done before.

當然，蒂姆。只有2條評論。首先是從規劃的角度來看，我們確實擴大了與所有客戶的視野。他們給我們的信號比以前更長，讓我們有機會與他們一起討論容量規劃。其次，一些客戶也給我們一種感覺——或者基本上是一種承諾，即他們將在一定的容量範圍內運營。所以他們給了我們額外的信心，讓我們從高信心的角度來計劃我們應該做的事情，這與我們以前所做的有點不同。

Tim, this is Gary. I would say one other thing that is helping us in this time frame. If you look at the relative investment for the upcoming inflections, more of the dollars are going to new materials and new structures. Gate All Around, we talked about that in the Master Class. Wiring for interconnect from 7 to 3 goes up, I think, 3x dollars per wafer as you go because you have -- go to the 3-nanometer node, there's more steps. We have these Integrated Material Solutions that combine 7 technologies on one integrated platform to lower the wiring resistance by 50%.

蒂姆，這是加里。我想說另一件事在這個時間範圍內對我們有所幫助。如果你看一下即將到來的拐點的相對投資，更多的美元將用於新材料和新結構。 Gate All Around，我們在大師班上講過。我認為，從 7 到 3 的互連佈線增加了每片晶圓的 3 倍美元，因為你有 - 進入 3 納米節點，還有更多步驟。我們擁有這些集成材料解決方案，在一個集成平台上結合了 7 種技術，可將佈線電阻降低 50%。

Backside Power Distribution, if you look at what one of our customers said recently, they talked about significant increase in materials and structures relative to power performance for them going to their future technology nodes. Backside Power Distribution is another one that's a significant inflection. You can reduce the area up to 30% without shrinking the features by placing some of the structures on the backside of the wafer. So again, for us, that relative contribution and the relative investment in our types of technologies is going up, and that's another thing that's helping us.

Backside Power Distribution，如果您看看我們的一位客戶最近所說的話，他們談到了相對於功率性能的材料和結構的顯著增加，以便他們進入未來的技術節點。背面配電是另一個重要的轉折點。通過在晶圓背面放置一些結構，您可以在不縮小特徵的情況下將面積減少多達 30%。因此，對我們來說，對我們的技術類型的相對貢獻和相對投資正在上升，這是另一件幫助我們的事情。

Our next question comes from Joseph Moore of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

In terms of the view that you've been more resilient going forward than you've been in the past, would you say that's true for memory in isolation? And I guess if we sort of -- if we think this is a memory downturn that looks similar to 2019, should we think about WFE being down similarly to 2019? Or do you think that would be too pessimistic? And why is that?

就你比過去更有彈性的觀點而言，你會說這對於孤立的記憶是正確的嗎？我想如果我們有點——如果我們認為這是一場類似於 2019 年的記憶衰退，我們是否應該認為 WFE 與 2019 年相似？還是你認為這太悲觀了？為什麼是這樣？

Thanks, Joe. The first part, I guess I haven't thought of it like that, but I would say that we are resilient -- a more resilient philosophy or position would play to memory only. And the reasons that I would point to are, first, the backlog that we've talked about. Even though memory may be weaker than it was last quarter, we still have significant quarters of backlog for memory customers. So that dynamic is the same. And the overall backlog strength is one of the reasons we're saying we're more resilient than in other periods.

謝謝，喬。第一部分，我想我沒有這樣想過，但我會說我們是有彈性的——更具彈性的哲學或立場只會記憶。我要指出的原因首先是我們討論過的積壓工作。儘管內存可能比上一季度弱，但我們仍然有大量的內存客戶積壓。所以動態是一樣的。整體積壓強度是我們說我們比其他時期更具彈性的原因之一。

And the second is the services business is one of the reasons that we're thinking that we're more resilient, and that also applies to memory customers and customers that we service from a spares perspective, et cetera. So I think that also is larger than it has been in the past and is more resilient relative to changes in WFE.

第二個是服務業務是我們認為我們更有彈性的原因之一，這也適用於內存客戶和我們從備件角度服務的客戶等。所以我認為這也比過去更大，並且相對於 WFE 的變化更具彈性。

And then the last piece, just to make sure for everybody else, I wasn't implying that 2019 would be the P&L for the company. We won't go back to 2019, but that it was a good proxy for how gross margin and spending would behave if we were in a weaker environment. So just to clarify that.

最後一點，只是為了確保其他所有人，我並不是暗示 2019 年將是公司的損益表。我們不會回到 2019 年，但如果我們處於較弱的環境中，它可以很好地代表毛利率和支出的表現。所以只是為了澄清這一點。

Yes. Joe, this is Gary. I think if you say what's changed -- or what's the same and what's changed, certainly, the percentage of foundry/logic is significantly higher than it was back in that time frame. Again, it's tracking around 2/3. There's this race for leadership in high-performance logic and significant investments that are happening in that part of the market. And we see customers -- our customers announcing longer term agreements with their customers, and that's something that we didn't see back in that time frame. So I think the foundry/logic percentage and the relative strength there is definitely different than -- certainly than it was in the 2019 time frame relative to the overall wafer fab equipment market.

是的。喬，這是加里。我認為，如果您說發生了什麼變化——或者說什麼是相同的，什麼發生了變化，那麼代工/邏輯的百分比肯定會明顯高於那個時間框架。同樣，它跟踪大約 2/3。高性能邏輯和重大投資的領導力正在爭奪該市場的一部分。我們看到客戶——我們的客戶宣布與他們的客戶簽訂更長期的協議，這是我們在那個時間框架內沒有看到的。因此，我認為代工/邏輯百分比和相對實力肯定與 2019 年相對於整個晶圓廠設備市場的時間框架不同。

Our next question comes from Sidney Ho of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

My question is on -- another question is on China. When I look at the revenue from China, it came down to about 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. I think that's more than some of your peers. Can you walk us through the dynamics there? I know in answering a previous question, you talked about the new export restriction have no impact in the July quarter. Maybe you can talk about the demand strength from domestic Chinese customers versus multinationals and the foundry versus memory. That will be great.

我的問題是關於——另一個問題是關於中國的。當我查看來自中國的收入時，環比下降到約 7 個百分點。我認為這比你的一些同齡人要多。你能帶我們了解一下那裡的動態嗎？我知道在回答之前的問題時，您談到新的出口限制對 7 月季度沒有影響。也許您可以談談中國國內客戶與跨國公司以及代工與內存的需求強度。那挺棒的。

Thanks, Sidney. This is Brice. Yes, I think one specific driver and one just general observation. The specific driver is most of the downside on our display business relates to customers in China. So that's the -- probably the primary change element. The rest is just the ins and outs normal quarter activity. We don't think the China market, as we look forward, is any weaker. We think the ICAPS investments that are being made there are largely on schedule. No real change in signal there. So it's just the ins and outs of having different-sized deliveries in the quarter. It happened to be a quarter overall that was a little smaller than the prior quarter. So we would point to display and then just general ups and downs for the rest of the change. And just to reiterate, no change on the -- no change because of the trade rules like we said before.

謝謝，西德尼。這是布萊斯。是的，我認為一個特定的驅動程序和一個只是一般的觀察。具體的驅動因素是我們顯示器業務的大部分不利因素與中國客戶有關。這就是——可能是主要的變化元素。其餘的只是正常的季度活動的來龍去脈。正如我們所期待的那樣，我們認為中國市場並沒有減弱。我們認為正在進行的 ICAPS 投資在很大程度上按計劃進行。那裡的信號沒有真正的變化。因此，這只是本季度不同規模交付的來龍去脈。它恰好是一個季度，比上一季度小一些。所以我們會指出顯示，然後只是一般的起伏來進行其餘的更改。重申一下，由於我們之前所說的貿易規則，沒有變化 - 沒有變化。

Our next question comes from Quinn Bolton of Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

Really ask a clarification and then a quick question. The clarification is, when you talk about memory reschedules, are these memory customers just pushing out delivery dates by some number of quarters? Or are they canceling the tool entirely and you're just taking that slot and reallocating it out to one of the foundry/logic customers? The question is just on the memory rescheduling. Is that equally happening across DRAM and NAND? Or is it predominantly on the DRAM side?

真的問一個澄清，然後一個快速的問題。需要澄清的是，當您談論內存重新安排時，這些內存客戶是否只是將交貨日期推遲了幾個季度？或者他們是否完全取消了該工具，而您只是佔用該插槽並將其重新分配給代工廠/邏輯客戶之一？問題只是關於內存重新調度。這在 DRAM 和 NAND 中是否同樣發生？還是主要在 DRAM 方面？

Okay. Quinn, thanks. On the clarification, there are both -- there are all 3 events happening with basically all customers. So there's adds, there's drops, and there's schedule changes. I think on the memory, there's more drops than there are adds in the short-term window. So those are cancels. And there are plenty of reschedules and there are even some adds for memory. So I hope that clarifies. It's a mix. But overall, we would say memory -- cycle-over-cycle, memory is lower than what it was in the last cycle.

好的。奎因，謝謝。澄清一下，兩者都有——基本上所有客戶都發生了所有 3 個事件。所以有增加，有下降，還有時間表變化。我認為在記憶中，短期窗口中的跌幅比增加的多。所以那些是取消。並且有很多重新安排，甚至還有一些內存增加。所以我希望澄清。這是一個混合體。但總的來說，我們會說內存——一個循環一個循環，內存比上一個循環中的要低。

And it's equally across DRAM and NAND?

它同樣適用於 DRAM 和 NAND？

That part, I don't have off the top. I don't think we would specify that. So I can't answer that one.

那部分，我沒有頂峰。我不認為我們會具體說明這一點。所以我不能回答那個。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

For you, Gary, since a lot of the industry questions have been answered. You talked about the above-average growth in your process control business. Obviously, foundry/logic is a big driver of it, particularly on the advanced node side. Are you seeing any penetration in terms of your ICAPS business in process control? Or is it entirely within the advanced nodes?

對你來說，加里，因為很多行業問題已經得到解答。您談到了您的過程控制業務的高於平均水平的增長。顯然，代工廠/邏輯是它的一大推動力，尤其是在高級節點方面。您是否看到您的 ICAPS 業務在流程控制方面有任何滲透？還是完全在高級節點內？

Patrick, thanks for the question. No, ICAPS is very strong for our -- ICAPS is very strong overall for the company. PDC is up 67% in 2021, and we're up almost 40% in fiscal 2022. What I would say relative to the breakdown of the different markets, certainly, it's stronger in high-performance logic than in any other part of the market, although we are seeing growth in memory, and we are definitely also seeing growth in ICAPS.

帕特里克，謝謝你的問題。不，ICAPS 對我們來說非常強大——ICAPS 對公司整體來說非常強大。 PDC 在 2021 年增長了 67%，我們在 2022 財年增長了近 40%。相對於不同市場的細分，我想說的是，當然，它在高性能邏輯方面比在市場的任何其他部分都要強，儘管我們看到了內存的增長，而且我們肯定也看到了 ICAPS 的增長。

The biggest thing for us, if you look at our PDC business last year, eBeam pretty much doubled. So we have vertical integration with our electron optics, leadership in resolution and imaging technologies. And that business is also very, very strong into '22 and then also going forward. We are seeing incremental strength also in optical inspection, and we believe we'll outperform the overall market in optical inspection. And overall PDC has a really strong tie to PPACt inflections.

對我們來說最重要的是，如果你看看我們去年的 PDC 業務，eBeam 幾乎翻了一番。因此，我們與我們的電子光學、分辨率和成像技術的領先地位進行了垂直整合。而且該業務在 22 年也非常非常強大，然後也在繼續發展。我們在光學檢測方面也看到了增長的力量，我們相信我們將在光學檢測方面超越整體市場。總體而言，PDC 與 PPACt 拐點有著非常緊密的聯繫。

So when you look at Gate All Around or some of these other big inflections, our unique imaging capability enables us to map out those processes in fingerprints faster and better than anyone else. So that synergy, not only do we see really strong growth in PDC, but real strong synergy with the rest of our semi portfolio.

因此，當您查看 Gate All Around 或其他一些大變形時，我們獨特的成像能力使我們能夠比其他任何人更快、更好地繪製指紋中的這些過程。因此，這種協同作用不僅讓我們看到了 PDC 真正強勁的增長，而且與我們的其他半成品投資組合也產生了真正強大的協同效應。

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini。

Asking a WFE question. Two follow-ups. What would be your revenue guide if you had all the components that you needed to shift to demand?

問一個WFE問題。兩個後續。如果您擁有滿足需求所需的所有組件，您的收入指南將是什麼？

That's a good question, Mehdi. Since it's been several quarters since we've been at that level, it's difficult to predict. But we did say, I think, 2 quarters ago that the supply constraints probably impacted us by $300 million. So I would say that and more if we had 0 supply constraints, and we would be on a higher curve going forward.

這是個好問題，邁赫迪。自從我們達到那個水平以來已經有幾個季度了，所以很難預測。但我們確實說過，我認為，兩個季度前，供應限制可能對我們造成了 3 億美元的影響。因此，如果我們的供應限制為 0，我會說更多，並且我們將處於更高的曲線上。

And of your inventory, how should I think about the mix of WIP and finished system -- or finished goods?

關於您的庫存，我應該如何考慮 WIP 和成品系統的組合——或成品？

Well, the changes for inventory, it's relatively balanced across the both -- across the entire inventory ecosystem. But the increase -- I'm looking at the number, sorry, right now -- relatively balanced. I mean here's what's happening on -- here's what's happening dynamically. We have a much more raw inventory coming in as we're trying to solve the supply chain issues, and 95% or more of our parts are available and we're able to build inventory. And that shows up in our WIP in raw material. And on finished goods, what's happening is we do have material -- or tools that are complete or nearly complete that are awaiting one part or close to being shipped to customers, and that inventory is also growing. So I think it's relatively balanced across all those components.

好吧，庫存的變化，在整個庫存生態系統中，兩者都是相對平衡的。但是增長——我正在看這個數字，抱歉，現在——相對平衡。我的意思是這就是正在發生的事情——這是動態發生的事情。當我們試圖解決供應鏈問題時，我們有更多的原始庫存進入，我們 95% 或更多的零件都可用並且我們能夠建立庫存。這顯示在我們的原材料 WIP 中。而在成品方面，我們確實有材料——或完整或接近完整的工具，正在等待一個零件或接近交付給客戶，而且庫存也在增長。所以我認為所有這些組件都是相對平衡的。

So the pushout by memory customers is not a factor in driving your -- the increase in days of inventory?

因此，內存客戶的推出並不是推動您的因素 - 庫存天數的增加？

Yes. Absolutely not. We're still underserved in total relative to the market. So when any customer delays a tool or cancels a tool at this point, we'll be moving that inventory and those parts to another customer. And we expect that to be the dynamic for the next several quarters plus.

是的。絕對不。相對於市場，我們的總體服務仍然不足。因此，當任何客戶在這一點上延遲工具或取消工具時，我們將把庫存和這些零件轉移給另一個客戶。我們預計這將成為未來幾個季度的動態。

Yes. And just to emphasize for everybody, yes, we -- that's what our perspective is on output. We'll be raising our output for the next several quarters, and we expect to be able to ship that based on demand being higher than the current supply.

是的。只是為了向大家強調，是的，我們——這就是我們對輸出的看法。我們將在接下來的幾個季度提高產量，我們希望能夠在需求高於當前供應的情況下發貨。

Okay. Thanks, Mehdi, for your question. And Brice, would you like to give us a summary?

好的。謝謝，梅赫迪，你的問題。 Brice，你願意給我們一個總結嗎？

Absolutely. So we've talked about puts and takes, weakness and areas of strength in the market. The overall story is we have multiple quarters of backlog. Job 1 for us is to increase our output and meet our customer demand as quickly as possible. And as we do this, we'll incrementally increase both our revenue and gross margin in coming quarters.

絕對地。因此，我們已經討論了市場的看跌期權、弱點和優勢領域。總體而言，我們有多個季度的積壓。我們的工作 1 是增加我們的產量並儘快滿足我們的客戶需求。當我們這樣做時，我們將在未來幾個季度逐步增加我們的收入和毛利率。

We're confident in the long-term growth of the semi market, and we're working to increase our investments in supply chain and especially to continue to focus on the R&D to drive the power, performance, and area cost road maps of our customers.

我們對半導體市場的長期增長充滿信心，我們正在努力增加對供應鏈的投資，尤其是繼續專注於研發，以推動我們的功率、性能和麵積成本路線圖顧客。

I look forward to seeing many of you at the upcoming conferences. Gary and I will be at the Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco. And just before that, I'll be in New York for the Citi and Evercore events.

我期待在即將舉行的會議上見到你們中的許多人。加里和我將參加在舊金山舉行的高盛會議。就在此之前，我將在紐約參加 Citi 和 Evercore 的活動。

Okay. Mike, please close.

好的。邁克，請關閉。

I'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 Pacific Time today, and we would like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

我要感謝大家今天加入我們。今天太平洋時間 5:00 將在我們的網站上重播電話會議，我們要感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。