應用材料 (AMAT) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。 （操作說明）現在我將會議交給公司副總裁麥可‧沙利文先生。請您發言，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Bob Halliday, our Chief Financial Officer.

各位下午好，感謝各位參加Applied公司2021財年第四季財報電話會議。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長Gary Dickerson先生，以及我們的財務長Bob Halliday先生。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的信息，請參閱Applied公司最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-Q表和8-K表文件。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議也包含非GAAP財務指標。與GAAP指標的調節表可在今天的獲利新聞稿和我們的季度獲利資料中找到，這些資料可在我們網站appliedmaterials.com的投資者關係頁面上查閱。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thank you, Mike. I'd like to start by thanking our employees for delivering the best year in Applied Materials history while navigating a dynamic and challenging environment.

謝謝你，麥克。首先，我要感謝我們的員工，感謝他們在充滿活力和挑戰的環境中，為應用材料公司創造了歷史上最好的一年。

Demand for semiconductors and wafer fab equipment remains very strong. And in fiscal 2021, we generated $23 billion of revenue, which represents 34% annual growth. In fiscal Q4, we hit the midpoint of our earnings guidance despite larger-than-expected supply chain constraints. These constraints worsened in the last few weeks of the quarter as we experienced delayed shipments from several suppliers. Without these supply shortages, we estimate that our Q4 revenues would have been at least $300 million higher.

市場對半導體和晶圓製造設備的需求仍然強勁。 2021財年，我們實現了230億美元的營收，年增34%。儘管供應鏈受到的限製程度超出預期，但我們在第四財季仍達到了獲利預期的中位數。由於多家供應商的交貨延遲，第四財季最後幾週的供應鏈限制情況進一步惡化。如果沒有這些供應短缺，我們預計第四財季的營收將至少高出3億美元。

We expect supply chain headwinds to persist into fiscal 2022, and mitigating them remains our top priority. For this reason, I'll begin today's call by providing some additional details about the industry's supply dynamics, both near term and longer term. Next, I'll describe the demand outlook, which is very strong and broad-based. I'll then talk about the progress we're making against our growth strategy and how Applied Materials is positioned to outperform the market over the coming years.

我們預計供應鏈逆風將持續到2022財年，緩解這些逆風仍是我們的首要任務。因此，在今天的電話會議上，我將首先詳細介紹產業供應動態，包括短期和長期情況。接下來，我將闡述需求前景，目前的需求非常強勁且覆蓋率廣。之後，我將談談我們在成長策略方面的進展，以及應用材料公司如何在未來幾年超越市場平均水平。

I'm also happy to welcome Bob back to the CFO seat while we conduct the search for our next CFO. Later in the call, Bob will share his perspective on the state of the business and provide color on our financial performance.

我也很高興歡迎鮑伯重返財務長一職，同時我們也將繼續尋找下一任財務長。稍後，鮑伯將分享他對公司現狀的看法，並詳細介紹我們的財務表現。

So let me start with the supply side of the equation. Applied has made and continues to make strategic investments in our own global manufacturing infrastructure, so factory capacity is not a limiting factor for us. Like many in the industry, the primary challenge we face today is availability of certain silicon components. For Applied, our issues are relatively narrow, and we are proactively collaborating with our suppliers and directly with the chip companies to find solutions and work around bottlenecks. I deeply appreciate their partnership and teamwork as we navigate these unprecedented circumstances together. Looking further ahead, I believe we will see permanent changes in the way supply chains are designed and operated.

那麼，首先讓我談談供應方面。應用材料公司已經並將繼續對我們自身的全球製造基礎設施進行策略性投資，因此工廠產能對我們來說並非限制因素。與業內許多公司一樣，我們目前面臨的主要挑戰是某些矽元件的供應。對於應用材料公司而言，我們的問題相對集中，我們正積極與供應商以及晶片公司直接合作，尋找解決方案並克服瓶頸。我非常感謝他們在我們共同應對這些前所未有的挑戰時所展現出的合作精神和團隊合作。展望未來，我相信供應鏈的設計和運作方式將會發生永久性的改變。

In the semiconductor industry and beyond, there's a shift from just-in-time to a just-in-case approach, which will require higher levels of inventory, more built-in redundancy and more burst capacity. Because the economic value of capturing upside opportunities far outweighs pure efficiency savings, we're also seeing changes in supply agreements across the ecosystem as companies place a premium on having preferential access to capacity.

在半導體產業及其他領域，生產模式正從“準時制”轉向“以防萬一”，這將需要更高的庫存水平、更完善的冗餘機制和更大的應急產能。由於把握潛在成長機會的經濟價值遠超單純的效率提升，我們看到整個生態系統中的供應協議也在發生變化，企業越來越重視優先獲得產能。

In addition, our customers are providing us with longer-term visibility, and we are collaborating more closely than ever when it comes to capacity planning. On top of that, the strategic importance of semiconductors is now recognized at a national level. Over the next few years, as incentive programs become available in the U.S., Europe and Asia, we expect to see a trend towards regionalized supply chains that are more resilient, but also increased capital intensity.

此外，我們的客戶為我們提供了更長期的發展前景，我們在產能規劃方面也比以往任何時候都更加緊密地合作。更重要的是，半導體產業的戰略重要性如今已在國家層級得到認可。未來幾年，隨著美國、歐洲和亞洲推出激勵計劃，我們預期供應鏈將呈現區域化趨勢，這種趨勢不僅會增強供應鏈的韌性，還會提高其資本密集度。

Now I'll characterize the demand environment, which is extremely healthy. The pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation of the economy, fueling semiconductor consumption and driving the need for next-generation silicon technologies. As a result, we see wafer fab equipment spending for calendar 2021 up around 40% year-on-year, in other words, in the mid-$80 billion range and constrained by supply, not demand.

現在我將分析一下目前的需求環境，目前市場狀況非常健康。疫情加速了經濟的數位轉型，推動了半導體消費，並刺激了對下一代矽技術的需求。因此，我們預計2021年晶圓製造設備支出將年增約40%，即達到800億美元左右，並且受制於供應而非需求。

There is still a long way to go before supply and demand is balanced, especially as demand drivers continue to grow. We, therefore, expect wafer fab equipment spending to be up again in 2022. While we're currently focused on resolving near-term challenges, it's important to recognize we're only at the beginning of major technology and market inflections that will play out over the next decade.

距離供需平衡仍有很長的路要走，尤其是在需求驅動因素持續成長的情況下。因此，我們預計2022年晶圓製造設備支出將再次上升。雖然我們目前專注於解決近期挑戰，但必須認識到，我們僅僅處於未來十年重大技術和市場變革的開端。

As everything gets smarter from our phones to our cars, to our homes, we see a combination of unit growth and increasing silicon content per unit. For example, if you look at this year's high-end smartphones, by dollar value, the application processor semiconductor content is up about 20% compared to last year's models, and RF content increased at twice that rate. And in data center applications, the average DRAM and NAND content per server is also growing at a 20% compound annual growth rate.

隨著從手機、汽車到智慧家居等各行各業變得越來越智能，我們看到產品銷售成長的同時，單件產品的矽含量也不斷提高。例如，以今年的高階智慧型手機為例，以美元價值計算，其應用處理器半導體含量比去年的機型成長了約20%，而射頻（RF）含量的成長速度更是達到了這一數字的兩倍。在資料中心應用領域，每台伺服器的平均DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體含量也以20%的複合年增長率成長。

As more and more smart devices are connected at the edge, they are driving exponential growth in machine-generated data that must be stored, moved and processed. Then to create value from these vast volumes of data, new AI computing approaches are being developed, fueling further demand for current and next-generation semiconductors.

隨著越來越多的智慧型裝置連接到網路邊緣，它們正推動機器產生資料呈指數級增長，這些資料必須儲存、傳輸和處理。為了從這些海量數據中創造價值，新的人工智慧運算方法正在被開發，這進一步刺激了對現有和下一代半導體的需求。

When I talk with customers, their message is clear and consistent. They are investing strategically to be in the best position to capture value as these long-term secular trends accelerate.

當我與客戶溝通時，他們傳遞的訊息清晰一致。他們正在進行策略性投資，以便在這些長期趨勢加速發展之際，佔據最佳位置，從而獲取價值。

In our core market, foundry/logic is about 60% of wafer fab equipment spending in 2021, and we expect it to remain at this level or higher over the next several years. Within foundry/logic, the spending mix is relatively balanced between the most advanced nodes where we see a fierce battle for leadership playing out in ICAPS.

在我們的核心市場，晶圓代工/邏輯元件在2021年約佔晶圓廠設備支出的60%，我們預計未來幾年將維持或更高。在晶圓代工/邏輯元件領域，支出結構相對均衡，涵蓋了最先進的製程節點，而ICAPS領域正上演著激烈的領導地位爭奪戰。

ICAPS node serve the fast-growing IoT, communications, automotive, power electronics and sensor markets. In memory, supply and demand fundamentals remain healthy, and we expect investments to be up next year, although not as much as foundry/logic.

ICAPS節點服務於快速成長的物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力電子和感測器市場。在記憶體領域，供需基本面依然穩健，我們預計明年投資將有所成長，但增幅不如晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域。

Finally, capital intensity is also providing an important tailwind. With the deceleration of traditional Moore's Law scaling and the transition to the new PPACt playbook, complexity is increasing. Simply put, more innovation is needed to get from one node to the next. And this higher complexity translates to higher capital intensity.

最後，資本密集度也提供了重要的動力。隨著傳統摩爾定律成長速度的放緩以及向新型PPACt模式的過渡，複雜性正在增加。簡而言之，從一個節點到下一個節點需要更多的創新。而這種更高的複雜性則轉化為更高的資本密集度。

Against this backdrop, I'll now describe Applied's performance and progress towards our strategic goals. In fiscal 2021, we grew semiconductor equipment revenues almost $5 billion or 43% year-on-year, outpacing the market growth rate during that period. However, as I described earlier, we were unable to fully meet demand in our fourth quarter due to component shortages, and we expect to remain supply constrained going into fiscal 2022. As a result, we've grown our backlog at a company level to $11.8 billion, which is up 77% compared to the same period last year.

在此背景下，我將介紹應用半導體公司的績效以及在實現策略目標方面的進展。 2021財年，我們的半導體設備營收年增近50億美元，增幅達43%，超過了同期市場平均成長率。然而，正如我之前所述，由於零件短缺，我們在第四季度未能完全滿足市場需求，預計2022財年仍將面臨供應緊張的局面。因此，公司層級的訂單積壓額已增至118億美元，較去年同期成長77%。

Our near-term results do not fully reflect the underlying strength in our business or the progress we're making against our long-term strategy. As a reminder, our strategy has 3 pillars: first, to be the PPACt enablement company and provide the foundation for customers' power, performance, area cost and time-to-market road maps; second, to shift more of our business to subscriptions; and third, to generate incremental free cash flows and profitability from our businesses in adjacent markets. We've aligned our organization and investments around these critical focus areas and are demonstrating strong momentum.

我們近期的業績並不能完全反映我們業務的潛在實力，也不能反映我們在長期策略上的進展。在此重申，我們的策略包含三大支柱：首先，成為PPACt賦能公司，為客戶的電源、性能、區域成本和上市時間路線圖奠定基礎；其次，將更多業務轉向訂閱模式；第三，從相鄰市場的業務中創造增量自由現金流和盈利能力。我們已圍繞這些關鍵領域調整了組織架構和投資方向，並展現出強勁的發展動能。

Applied's PPACt enablement strategy is built upon 3 differentiated elements. We have the broadest and most enabling portfolio of unit process solutions. We can co-optimize and integrate these technologies in unique and highly enabling ways. And we're focused on time-to-market acceleration with our AI(x) or Actionable Insight Accelerator data platform.

Applied 的 PPACt 賦能策略建立在三大差異化要素之上。我們擁有最廣泛、最具賦能性的單元製程解決方案組合。我們能夠以獨特且極具賦能性的方式協同優化和整合這些技術。此外，我們也專注於利用 AI(x) 或可操作洞察加速器數據平台加速產品上市。

Starting with our unit process tools. Demand in our traditional leadership areas is very strong. Our epi and thermal businesses both grew 70% this fiscal year, and CMP grew more than 60%. And in our targeted growth areas, we expect our process diagnostic and control revenues to be up more than 60% in calendar 2021.

首先來看我們的單元製程工具。我們傳統優勢領域的市場需求非常強勁。本財年，我們的外延和熱加工業務均成長了70%，化學機械拋光業務成長超過60%。在我們重點成長的領域，我們預計2021年製程診斷和控制業務的收入將成長超過60%。

Packaging is another very exciting area for us. Our equipment revenues are up more than 55% year-on-year, and we're on track to exceed $800 million for calendar 2021. We're also bringing highly enabling future technologies to market through a combination of organic R&D and strategic partnerships.

包裝是我們另一個令人振奮的領域。我們的設備營收年增超過55%，預計2021年全年營收將超過8億美元。此外，我們也透過自主研發和策略合作，將極具發展潛力的未來技術推向市場。

Moving to our co-optimized and integrated products. The customer pull for these solutions is strong and increasing for future nodes. Co-optimization allows us to see and solve higher-value problems for customers, speed up commercialization of new innovations and capture more of the available opportunity. One example is dielectric materials where we're driving parallel innovations in materials deposition, modification and removal. Our CVD group has more than 15 new materials either in development or recently released. These enable new structures or manufacturing techniques in both foundry/logic and memory. The revenue opportunity we've opened up for the co-optimized etch and CMP steps is almost twice as large as the market for the stand-alone deposition equipment. Another example is advanced patterning where we're co-optimizing CVD, ALD and CMP with our Sym3 etch, enabling us to gain more than 5 points of share in patterning this year.

接下來，我們將轉向協同優化和整合產品。客戶對這些解決方案的需求強勁，隨著未來製程節點的推進，需求仍在持續成長。協同優化使我們能夠發現並解決客戶面臨的更高價值問題，加速創新成果的商業化，並抓住更多市場機會。例如，在介電材料領域，我們正在推進材料沉積、改質和去除方面的平行創新。我們的 CVD 團隊擁有超過 15 種正在研發或近期發布的新資料。這些材料為晶圓代工/邏輯電路和記憶體製造領域帶來了新的結構或製造流程。我們為協同優化的蝕刻和 CMP 製程開闢的收入機會幾乎是獨立沉積設備市場的兩倍。另一個例子是先進圖形化技術，我們正在將 CVD、ALD 和 CMP 與我們的 Sym3 蝕刻製程進行協同優化，這使我們今年在圖形化領域的市佔率成長超過 5 個百分點。

Integrated Materials Solutions, or IMS, go one step beyond co-optimization by combining multiple processes with customized metrology and sensors in a single system typically under vacuum. With IMS, we can target the most complex and valuable challenges in the new PPACt playbook. For example, this year, we delivered 5 new low R, or low resistance metallization integrated solutions to customers that address next-generation applications in foundry/logic, DRAM and NAND. This included our copper barrier seed IMS that combines 7 different process technologies in one system under vacuum, ALD, PVD, CVD, copper reflow, surface treatment, interface engineering and metrology. This enables a 50% reduction in interconnect resistance at the most advanced foundry/logic nodes and creates a multibillion-dollar opportunity for Applied Materials over the next 5 years.

整合材料解決方案 (IMS) 在協同優化的基礎上更進一步，將多種製程與客製化計量和感測器整合於單一系統中，通常在真空環境下進行。借助 IMS，我們可以應對新 PPACt 策略中最複雜、最有價值的挑戰。例如，今年我們向客戶交付了 5 款全新的低電阻 (Low R) 金屬化整合解決方案，這些方案適用於代工/邏輯、DRAM 和 NAND 等下一代應用。其中包括我們的銅阻擋層種子 IMS，它將 7 種不同的製程技術整合於一個真空系統中，包括 ALD、PVD、CVD、銅回流焊接、表面處理、介面工程和計量。這使得最先進的代工/邏輯節點互連電阻降低了 50%，並為應用材料公司在未來 5 年創造了數十億美元的商機。

The final component of our PPACt enablement strategy is time-to-market acceleration. New digital tools that accelerate R&D, technology transfer and high-volume manufacturing are a major focus area for our customers. In the coming years, these technologies will have a huge impact on productivity and innovation to commercialization speed. They will also play a key role in making regional supply chains economically competitive and sustainable. Our AI(x) platform brings together process tools, sensors, metrology with data analytics and machine learning. We currently have 25 AI(x) R&D acceleration engagements with leading customers, and we now expect that number to triple over the next 12 months.

我們PPACt賦能策略的最後一個組成部分是加速產品上市。能夠加速研發、技術轉移和大規模生產的新型數位化工具是我們客戶關注的重點領域。未來幾年，這些技術將對生產力和創新商業化速度產生巨大影響。它們還將在提升區域供應鏈的經濟競爭力和永續性方面發揮關鍵作用。我們的AI(x)平台整合了製程工具、感測器、計量技術以及數據分析和機器學習。目前，我們已與25家領先客戶開展了AI(x)研發加速合作項目，預計未來12個月內，這一數字將成長三倍。

Another highlight for 2021 is the progress we're making with subscription revenues. In our service business, we've already converted a significant percentage of our spares and service revenue from on-demand to long-term service agreements. We now have nearly 15,000 installed base tools covered by these agreements, up 12% year-on-year. The tenure of these agreements has grown from 1.9 years at the end of 2020 to 2.3 years today, and our renewal rate is about 90%. Several customers have highlighted how these long-term agreements have allowed them to better manage disruptions in parts supply and technical support during the pandemic.

2021年的另一個亮點是我們在訂閱收入方面的進展。在服務業務方面，我們已將相當一部分備件和服務收入從按需付費模式轉變為長期服務協議模式。目前，已有近15,000台已安裝的工具納入這些協議的覆蓋範圍，年增12%。這些協議的平均期限已從2020年底的1.9年延長至目前的2.3年，續約率約為90%。多家客戶強調，這些長期協議幫助他們在疫情期間更好地應對零件供應和技術支援的中斷。

Before I hand the call over to Bob, I will quickly summarize. As the digital transformation of the economy accelerates, demand for semiconductors continues to grow and is significantly outpacing supply. We expect supply shortages of certain silicon components to persist in the near term, meaning that we don't expect to fully meet demand in Q1. Managing these constraints in partnership with our suppliers and chip makers is our top priority.

在將電話交給鮑伯之前，我先簡單總結一下。隨著經濟數位轉型加速，半導體需求持續成長，且遠超供應。我們預計某些矽元件的供應短缺將在短期內持續，這意味著我們預計第一季無法完全滿足市場需求。與供應商和晶片製造商攜手應對這些供應限制是我們的首要任務。

Looking beyond the near-term disruptions, I feel very positive about the future. Longer-term secular trends are driving the semiconductor and wafer fab equipment markets structurally higher. And at Applied, we're making significant progress towards our strategic plans. We are in the best position to accelerate our customers' PPACt road maps and grow significantly faster than our markets over the next several years.

展望未來，儘管面臨短期挑戰，但我對前景非常樂觀。長期趨勢正推動半導體和晶圓製造設備市場實現結構性成長。在應用材料公司，我們正朝著策略規劃取得顯著進展。我們擁有得天獨厚的優勢，能夠幫助客戶加速推進產品、製程和應用（PPACt）路線圖，並在未來幾年內實現遠超市場平均水準的成長。

Now I'll hand the call over to Bob.

現在我把電話交給鮑伯。

Thanks, Gary. I want to begin by saying I'm very happy for the opportunity to work with all of you again. I have 3 main messages today. Number one, demand is very strong and growing, and I think it's likely to remain strong in 2022 and beyond. Number two, supply chain constraints are impacting our ability to meet all of our demand in the near term. Number three, Applied Materials is making very good progress toward our financial targets, and we're in a great position to return capital to shareholders. I'll cover each of these topics in order and give you our guidance. And then Gary, Mike and I will help with your questions.

謝謝，Gary。首先，我非常高興有機會再次與大家共事。今天我有三點要強調。第一，市場需求非常強勁且持續成長，我認為這種強勁勢頭在2022年及以後仍將維持。第二，供應鏈的限制正在影響我們短期內滿足所有需求的能力。第三，應用材料公司在實現財務目標方面進展順利，我們有能力向股東返還資本。我會依序逐一闡述這三點，並給予我們的指導。之後，Gary、Mike和我將回答大家的問題。

I'll begin by giving you more detailed insights than we typically share about the demand for our products and its sustainability into 2022. Specifically, our Semi Systems revenue grew by 43% in 2021. Our Semi Systems orders grew by 78% for the year. In fact, our Semi Systems orders grew in every quarter. In Q4, they were up 136% year-over-year.

首先，我將提供比以往更詳細的信息，介紹我們產品的需求及其在2022年的可持續性。具體來說，2021年我們的半導體系統營收成長了43​​%，訂單量成長了78%。事實上，我們的半導體系統訂單在每個季度都實現了成長。第四季度，訂單量年增了136%。

Looking ahead, we currently expect our orders to be higher in the first half of fiscal 2022 than in the second half of 2021 across Semi Systems, AGS and also Display. In short, the demand environment is very strong.

展望未來，我們預計2022財年上半年半導體系統、應用半導體系統以及顯示器業務的訂單量將高於2021財年下半年。簡而言之，市場需求非常強勁。

What's happening on the demand side is that all of the trends Gary and I talked about years ago are playing out in an even bigger way than we imagined. First, semiconductor demand is higher because we're designing more intelligence into practically everything that gets built and sold. Second, equipment capital intensity is higher. We don't have wafer size increases anymore, and the industry has run out a number of efficiencies, including fab automation, industry consolidation and the foundry model.

需求方面的情況是，我和加里幾年前討論過的所有趨勢，如今都以比我們想像中更大的規模呈現出來。首先，半導體需求更高，因為我們幾乎在所有製造和銷售的產品中都融入了更多智慧技術。其次，設備資本密集度較高。晶圓尺寸不再持續成長，而且業界許多提高效率的途徑也已失效，包括晶圓廠自動化、產業整合和代工模式。

Used equipment is now scarce. So even in the ICAPS markets, customers are buying new equipment and spending more. The industry is adding more wafer capacity to keep up with demand, particularly in foundry/logic, and we believe spending will remain strong.

二手設備目前十分稀少。因此，即使在積體電路製造和處理器（ICAPS）市場，客戶也都在購買新設備，支出也隨之增加。為了滿足市場需求，整個產業正在增加晶圓產能，尤其是在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域，我們認為支出將保持強勁勢頭。

Specifically, the industry grew foundry/logic wafer starts by around 40% over the past 5 years alone. At the end of our fiscal year, overall fab utilization for the industry increased to the highest level of the past decade. We see foundry/logic continuing to grow as a proportion of the industry's mix. Five years ago, foundry/logic represented around 53% of WFE spending. As of 2021, it's grown to 60% of WFE, and we see it being even higher into the future.

具體而言，僅在過去五年，晶圓代工/邏輯晶圓的開工量就增加了約 40%。在本財年末，整個產業的晶圓廠整體利用率達到了近十年來的最高水準。我們預期晶圓代工/邏輯晶圓在產業結構中的佔比將持續成長。五年前，晶圓代工/邏輯晶圓約佔晶圓廠設備 (WFE) 支出的 53%。截至 2021 年，這一比例已增長至 60%，我們預計未來還會更高。

Even with higher wafer capacity and high utilization, we have a global semiconductor shortage that's affecting a wide range of industries, including our own. Industry-wide, we are tracking 59 fab projects with available and announced expansion capacity of 3.5 million wafer starts. These projects represent potential equipment spending of around $300 billion in future years. All of this data leads me to believe that demand is likely to remain strong.

即使晶圓產能和利用率都提高了，全球半導體短缺問題依然存在，影響著包括我們本身在內的眾多產業。在整個產業範圍內，我們正在追蹤59個晶圓廠項目，這些項目已公佈和可用的擴建產能總計達350萬片晶圓。這些項目意味著未來幾年潛在的設備支出將達到約3,000億美元。所有這些數據都讓我相信，市場需求可能會保持強勁。

Now I'll give you more insights into our own supply situation. In Q4, our Semi Systems backlog was at record levels and growing quickly. In our guidance for Q4, we targeted modest Semi Systems revenue growth. We also widened our overall guidance range due to our concerns about the supply chain.

現在我將更詳細地介紹我們自身的供應情況。第四季度，我們的半導體系統積壓訂單達到歷史新高，且成長迅速。在第四季業績預期中，我們預期半導體系統營收將達到溫和成長。同時，由於對供應鏈的擔憂，我們也擴大了整體業績預期範圍。

Toward the end of Q4, we experienced later-than-expected deliveries of the components we need to complete and ship our build plan by the end of the quarter. The reason for the delays is that our suppliers couldn't get enough parts from their own suppliers, which include chip makers and distributors. The supply issues are directly related to the semiconductor shortage, particularly in logic, power and analog ICs.

在第四季末，我們所需零件的交付時間晚於預期，導致我們無法按時完成季度末的生產計劃並交付產品。延誤的原因是我們的供應商無法從其自身的供應商（包括晶片製造商和分銷商）獲得足夠的零件。供應問題與半導體短缺直接相關，尤其是邏輯、電源和類比積體電路的短缺。

Not all of our semi businesses were affected in Q4. Our process control, CMP, etch and packaging businesses beat our revenue targets. Yet our overall Semi Systems revenue was $293 million below the midpoint of our expectation. The full semiconductor revenue impact of the shortages during the quarter was well above $300 million.

第四季並非所有半導體業務都受到影響。我們的製程控制、CMP、蝕刻和封裝業務均超出營收目標。然而，我們的半導體系統整體營收比預期中位數低了2.93億美元。本季半導體短缺造成的全部營收損失遠超過3億美元。

In Q1, we are guiding for sequential growth of around 3%. We have the internal capacity to easily ship several hundred million dollars more of semi equipment, but we are planning for only modest supply increases. Looking ahead, I believe WFE spending will be up again in calendar 2022 and will remain strong, particularly for foundry/logic, both at the leading edge and ICAPS notes. I also believe Applied's business will be higher in the first half of calendar 2022 than in the second half of calendar 2021, both in Semi Systems and AGS.

第一季度，我們預計將季成長約3%。我們擁有足夠的內部產能，可以輕鬆交付數億美元的半導體設備，但我們計劃僅適度增加供應量。展望未來，我認為2022年晶圓廠設備（WFE）支出將再次成長並保持強勁勢頭，尤其是在晶圓代工/邏輯領域，無論是尖端裝置還是整合晶片和積體電路（ICAPS）領域。我還認為，應用材料半導體（Applied Technologies）2022年上半年的業務，無論是在半導體系統還是應用半導體及半導體業務（AGS）方面，都將高於2021年下半年。

Next, since it's the end of our fiscal year, it's a good time to assess the progress we're making towards our 2024 financial model. In April, we outlined targets to grow our revenue, profitability and earnings in a variety of WFE scenarios, including a base case of $85 billion and a high case of $100 billion. With everything we're seeing in the industry today, our high scenario of $100 billion is increasingly likely.

其次，由於本財年即將結束，現在正是評估我們2024年財務模型進度的好時機。今年4月，我們制定了在各種WFE情境下提升收入、獲利能力和收益的目標，其中包括850億美元的基本情境和1,000億美元的高情境。鑑於目前產業情勢，我們1000億美元的高情境實現的可能性越來越大。

One year into the long-term plan, we've made good progress, increasing revenue by 34%, non-GAAP gross margin by 240 basis points, non-GAAP operating margin by 540 basis points and non-GAAP EPS by 64%. We believe our Semi Systems group is well on track to its growth targets based on our strong product road maps and the deep customer engagements Gary described.

長期計畫實施一年後，我們取得了良好進展，營收成長34%，非GAAP毛利率成長240個基點，非GAAP營業利潤率成長540個基點，非GAAP每股盈餘成長64%。我們相信，基於我們強大的產品路線圖和Gary所描述的與客戶的深度合作，我們的半導體系統集團正朝著成長目標穩步前進。

We believe AGS can exceed the growth implied in our model after growing by 21% this year alone. In fact, AGS had record backlog of over $4.33 billion at the end of the year. 72% of the Q4 backlog was subscription business with terms of 1 to 3 years, and 65% of new subscription bookings were multiyear.

我們相信，AGS今年的成長率已達21%，其成長潛力遠超過我們模型預測。事實上，AGS年底的積壓訂單金額創下歷史新高，超過43.3億美元。第四季積壓訂單中，72%為1至3年期的訂閱業務，而新增訂閱訂單中，65%為多年合約。

While our focus is on recurring revenue, AGS also includes our 200-millimeter equipment business. Our 200-millimeter business has been growing along with the rest of the ICAPS market, approaching $650 million in WFE revenue in calendar 2021.

雖然我們的重點是經常性收入，但AGS也包括我們的200毫米設備業務。我們的200毫米業務與ICAPS市場的其他業務同步成長，2021年WFE營收接近6.5億美元。

Turning to our profitability metrics. We expect to achieve our non-GAAP gross margin target of 48.5% once the near-term material and logistics cost headwinds subside. We also feel confident in our non-GAAP operating margin targets. The Semi Systems group increased its operating margin by 590 basis points this year, while AGS delivered record operating margin of 31% in Q4. A major focus for us is increasing the display group's margin to between 25% and 30%. And we plan to be in that range by the second half of 2022.

接下來談談我們的獲利指標。我們預計，一旦近期原物料和物流成本的不利因素消退，我們將實現48.5%的非GAAP毛利率目標。我們對非GAAP營業利潤率目標也充滿信心。半導體系統集團今年的營業利潤率提高了590個基點，而AGS在第四季度實現了創紀錄的31%的營業利潤率。我們的主要目標是將顯示器集團的利潤率提升至25%至30%之間，並計劃在2022年下半年達到此目標。

Another of our targets is to return 80% to 100% of free cash flow to shareholders. In fiscal 2021, we generated a record $4.77 billion in free cash flow, and we returned 96% mainly through stock buybacks. We ended the year with over $5 billion remaining in buyback authorization. And given the strong demand outlook and our view of the intrinsic value of the company, we expect to continue to be aggressive with the program.

我們的另一個目標是將80%至100%的自由現金流回饋給股東。在2021財年，我們創造了創紀錄的47.7億美元自由現金流，並透過股票回購將其中96%返還給了股東。年底，我們仍有超過50億美元的股票回購授權額度。鑑於強勁的市場需求前景以及我們對公司內在價值的認可，我們預計將繼續積極推進股票回購計畫。

Now I'll share our Q1 business outlook. Given the supply chain challenges, we expect to modestly increase revenue to $6.16 billion, plus or minus $250 million, or up around 19% year-on-year. We expect non-GAAP EPS to be around $1.85, plus or minus $0.07, or up around 33% year-on-year.

現在我將分享我們第一季的業務展望。鑑於供應鏈面臨的挑戰，我們預計營收將小幅成長至61.6億美元，上下浮動2.5億美元，年增約19%。我們預期非GAAP每股收益約1.85美元，上下浮動0.07美元，年增約33%。

Within this outlook, we expect Semi Systems revenue of around $4.46 billion, up 25% year-over-year. We project AGS revenue of around $1.33 billion, up 15% year-over-year. We expect Display revenue to be around $350 million in Q1 and higher as we progress through the year. Applied's non-GAAP gross margin should decline to around 47.4%, primarily due to higher near-term cost headwinds. We plan to increase non-GAAP OpEx to $970 million, which is around 15.8% of revenue, below our long-term model target of 16%. Our guidance also assumes a 12% non-GAAP tax rate.

在此展望中，我們預期半導體系統業務營收約44.6億美元，年增25%。我們預計應用半導體及半導體業務營收約13.3億美元，年增15%。我們預計顯示業務營收在第一季約為3.5億美元，並隨著年內推進而成長。應用半導體的非GAAP毛利率預計將下降至約47.4%，主要原因是近期成本上升。我們計劃將非GAAP營運支出增加至9.7億美元，約佔營收的15.8%，低於我們16%的長期模式目標。我們的業績指引也假設非GAAP稅率為12%。

Finally, along with Gary, I'd like to thank all of our teams and partners for their hard work in a challenging environment. Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

最後，我和蓋瑞要感謝我們所有的團隊和合作夥伴，感謝他們在充滿挑戰的環境中付出的辛勤努力。現在，麥克，讓我們開始問答環節吧。

Thanks, Bob. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，鮑伯。 （操作員指令）操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

Welcome back, Bob. I'm sure you're happy to be back from the golf course. So I guess a couple of part question on supply constraints. You talked about not being fully resolved in January. Do you expect it to be resolved in April? And how are customers reacting to the shortages? Are they waiting on a full suite of tools? Or are they taking whatever tools they can get? And then, I guess, lastly, considering the backlog that you highlighted and also that longest lead time ASML is essentially sold out for all of 2022, it certainly looks like your visibility extends now into 2023. Can you speak to that?

歡迎回來，鮑伯。我相信你一定很高興從高爾夫球場回來。那麼，關於供應限制，我想問幾個問題。你提到一月份供應限制還沒有完全解決。你預計四月能解決嗎？客戶對短缺情況有何反應？他們是在等待全套工具到貨嗎？還是只要能拿到手的工具就用？最後，考慮到你提到的積壓訂單，以及ASML最長的交貨週期——2022年全年的訂單基本上都已售罄——看來你們的供貨計劃已經延伸到2023年了。能談談這方面嗎？

Sure. Thanks for welcoming me back. A few things. One, supply chain; two, overall demand environment; and three, visibility, I guess. The first one, supply chain, we actually did pretty well managing this through about 11 months of the year and a week, and then it got a little worse at the end of the quarter. And that was our issue. So now we're all over this thing.

當然。謝謝歡迎我回來。有幾點要說。第一，供應鏈；第二，整體需求環境；第三，可視性。第一點，供應鏈，實際上我們在前11個月零1週的時間裡管理得相當不錯，但在季度末情況略有惡化。這就是我們遇到的問題。所以現在我們正在全力以赴解決這個問題。

In the short term, managing the next quarters is about prioritization, project management and execution. So we have set up a cadence that every week, I'm going through all the detailed performance by week of how we're doing on receipts, shipments, shortages, individual supplier names. And Gary is going through it almost every day, okay? So we are escalating this thing.

短期內，接下來幾季的管理重點在於優先排序、專案管理和執行。所以我們制定了一個流程：每週我都會詳細查看每週的績效報告，包括收貨、出貨、缺貨情況以及各個供應商的名稱。而 Gary 幾乎每天都會查看，懂嗎？所以我們正在逐步推進這項工作。

So then you say, why do we think we're going to do better in Q1? So if you look at some of the public companies you know, they're up 3% to 5% on average, some of our suppliers. We believe that our allocation will be somewhat better than that. We also believe that we have internally allocated that effectively, and we are working with our suppliers' suppliers, who are our customers, to free up more demand.

那麼您可能會問，為什麼我們認為第一季業績會更好呢？您可以看看一些上市公司，它們的平均成長率在3%到5%之間，我們的一些供應商也是如此。我們相信我們的產能分配會比這更好。我們也相信我們已經有效地進行了內部產能分配，我們正在與供應商的供應商（也就是我們的客戶）合作，以釋放更多需求。

Secondly, if you look at the early data, in the first 2 weeks of the quarter, receipts were up about 15% from the previous quarter. So I think we're going to be okay. If you look at the stuff that caused these problems, there's miscellaneous problems all over the place, but most of those are manageable. What hit us hard was this thousands, theoretically, of electronic components that our suppliers use in our products to us. There are about 100 that we're closely monitoring last quarter and 10 that gave us problems at the end of the quarter. These are particularly around PLCs. We are monitoring the top 10 suppliers of our products, and we are monitoring those 100, plus 200 other components. We want to make sure nothing goes bad.

其次，如果你看一下早期數據，本季前兩週的收貨量比上一季成長了約15%。所以我認為我們應該沒問題。如果你分析一下造成這些問題的原因，會發現各種各樣的問題都有，但大多數都在可控範圍內。真正對我們造成嚴重影響的是供應商產品中使用的數千種電子元件。上個季度我們密切關注了大約100種元件，其中10種在季度末出現了問題。這些問題主要集中在PLC（可程式邏輯控制器）方面。我們正在監控我們產品的前十大供應商，以及這100種元件，再加上其他200種元件。我們希望確保萬無一失。

So I feel pretty good that, number one, the demand is really good. The backlog is there. The orders are up every quarter. It looks strong next year. It doesn't feel or looks strong next year. I think supply chain is going to get better incrementally every quarter through the year.

所以我覺得情況相當不錯，首先，需求確實很旺盛。積壓訂單充足。每個季度的訂單量都在增加。明年看起來情況依然強勁。但明年情勢似乎不樂觀。我認為供應鏈會在今年內每季逐步改善。

In terms of -- visibility is great. In terms of a full suite of tools, we are -- customers are taking all the tools we can ship. And we're largely keeping them happy, but we want to not get the backlog too big. But I think we're going to make progress throughout the year.

就可見性而言，情況非常好。就全套工具而言，客戶正在使用我們所能提供的所有工具。我們基本上讓他們很滿意，但我們希望避免積壓的工作量過大。但我認為我們今年會取得進展。

C.J., this is Gary. I'll add a little bit more. I've met with all the CEOs of our top customers, leading technologies and ICAPS here in the last quarter. And what I would say, certainly, the supply situation is challenging, but really no change in terms of the customer demand for the products. And some of the tools that, again, as Bob said, it's not a broad-based issue. Some of these tools are the ones that are most enabling from Applied. And again, those -- nothing has changed relative to that demand.

C.J.，我是Gary。我再補充一點。上個季度，我與我們所有主要客戶、領先科技公司以及ICAPS的CEO都見了面。我想說的是，供應情況確實充滿挑戰，但客戶對產品的需求並沒有真正改變。正如Bob所說，有些工具並非普遍存在的問題。這些工具是Applied公司最具賦能性的產品。再次強調，這些工具的需求並沒有改變。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Bob, welcome back as well. It's great working with you again. My guess is you're going to get multiples of C.J.'s questions on the supply side. But I'm just kind of curious, Bob, to follow up, as the supply chain gets better, do you think by the April quarter, there's a big step function pickup to the $500 million, plus or minus, that you can't ship in sort of October and January? Or will it be a little bit more linear than that as supply comes online?

鮑勃，也歡迎回來。很高興能再次與你合作。我猜你將會收到很多C.J.關於供應方面的問題。不過，鮑勃，我有點好奇，想進一步了解一下，隨著供應鏈的改善，你認為到四月份季度，能否像去年十月和一月份那樣，大幅提升5億美元的缺口（上下浮動）？還是說，隨著供應的逐步恢復，缺口會更線性一些？

And then to your point earlier, Bob, about the backlog, just how do you safeguard against sort of a frothy backlog in this kind of environment? There are impressive numbers. But typically, when customers can't get what they want, they tend to order more than they need. So how are you safeguarding against that?

鮑勃，關於你之前提到的積壓訂單問題，在這種環境下，你們如何防止出現過多的積壓訂單？訂單數量確實驚人。但通常情況下，當客戶無法獲得他們想要的產品時，他們往往會訂購超出實際需求的產品。那麼，你們是如何防範這種情況的呢？

So in terms of rate of recovery and confidence in the backlog and kind of the double booking question, I think, is the question. So in terms of rate of recovery, what we're modeling from discussions with suppliers and our suppliers' suppliers and our internal analysis, which we're doing the best we can to model this, and we believe it's accurate, we think Q1, the rate recovery, if you look at it, our Semi business is up a little over 3% equipment. And that's about what the industry is quarter-on-quarter. Our AGS business is a little bit lower because it's 14 weeks last year in Q1 as the Chinese holiday falls into Q1 this year. But if you look at rate of recovery, we think it goes up a little over 3% in Q1. We think the equipment business picks up a couple of points more every quarter and builds more momentum later in the year.

所以，就復甦速度、積壓訂單的信心以及重複預訂問題而言，我認為這才是關鍵所在。關於復甦速度，我們根據與供應商及其供應商的討論以及內部分析進行建模，盡最大努力進行建模，我們相信模型是準確的。我們認為第一季的復甦速度，如果你看一下，我們的半導體業務成長略高於3%。這與整個行業的季度環比增長大致相同。我們的AGS業務略低，因為去年第一季有14週，而今年的中國假期也落在了第一季。但如果你看一下復甦速度，我們認為第一季成長略高於3%。我們認為設備業務每季都會略有成長，並在今年稍後累積更多成長動能。

Now as we get more visibility, next quarter, I'll be more confident in those numbers. But that's the kind of acceleration we're picking up in shipments. We hope to do better. We might do better, but that's what we're modeling.

現在隨著我們對情況了解得更清楚，下個季度我對這些數據會更有信心。但這就是我們目前在出貨量方面看到的加速成長。我們希望做得更好。我們或許能做得更好，但這只是我們目前的預測。

[Double booking].

[重複預訂]

Oh, [double booking]. I don't think that's a problem right now, double booking, John. If you look at breakout between memory and the foundry/logic, foundry/logic was 60% this year of the business. We actually think it's up next year. If you look at public statements from TSMC, Intel, another big foundry/logic manufacturers, they're talking about multiyear commitments to WFE spending and very strong businesses on their side. We look within the mix that foundry/logic increases as a percentage of the mix next year. We look at memory as being slightly up, a little bit more on NAND, a little bit down on DRAM. So we think that's muted and reasonable. And we don't see double booking then. We see China down a little bit next year. So I don't see the double booking thing right now.

哦，[重複預訂]。約翰，我認為目前重複預訂不是問題。如果你看一下記憶體和晶圓代工/邏輯業務的細分，晶圓代工/邏輯業務今年佔總業務的60%。我們預計明年還會成長。如果你看看台積電、英特爾和其他大型晶圓代工/邏輯廠商的公開聲明，他們都在談論多年晶圓代工支出承諾，而且他們的業務非常強勁。我們預計明年晶圓代工/邏輯業務在總業務的比例將會上升。我們認為記憶體業務會略有成長，NAND快閃記憶體業務會略有成長，DRAM業務會略有下降。所以我們認為整體成長幅度適中且合理。因此，我們預計不會出現重複預訂的情況。我們預計明年中國市場會略有下降。所以，目前我並不認為會出現重複預訂的問題。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the impact of the constraints on the services business. Because it's not just services, there is hardware and everything else. Is services actually being impacted by constraints? Would services be strong without them? And how do you think -- how do you see services -- the evolution of services going forward into next year as the -- you work to resolve the constraint issues?

我想請您談談這些限制對服務業務的影響。因為這不僅關乎服務本身，還包括硬體和其他所有方面。服務業務真的會受到這些限制的影響嗎？如果沒有這些限制，服務業務會發展得更好嗎？您如何看待—您如何看待—在您努力解決這些限制問題的同時，服務業務在明年的發展趨勢？

Yes. Our services business is doing great. This year, we're up 21%. We're ahead of plan to hit the 2024 model. I think we might have said on the call even that we need a compound rate of growth of 7% a year to hit that model. We think we'll exceed that, probably do double digits this year growth in service.

是的。我們的服務業務表現優異。今年成長了21%。我們提前完成了2024年的目標模型。我想我們在電話會議上可能提到過，我們需要每年7%的複合成長率才能實現這個模型。我們認為今年服務業務的成長速度會超過這個目標，很可能會達到兩位數。

If you look at our service business, it's multiple components. It's a 200-millimeter tool business. There is a contract services where you sign up for services 1 to 3 years, including different types of service arrangements. And then it's kind of time and material stuff.

如果你看我們的服務業務，你會發現它由多個部分組成。它包括200毫米工具業務。我們提供合約服務，客戶可以簽訂1到3年的服務合同，其中包括不同類型的服務安排。此外，還有一些按工時和材料計費的業務。

If you look at the service business, we think it's going to grow strongly this year in double -- strong double digits. And in fact, our customers are thanking our service guys for getting them on to parts service contracts in the past year or 2 because our customers are in good shape in terms of support and parts. So I think that the parts issues, supply chain issues are not really impacting our service business.

就服務業務而言，我們認為今年將實現兩位數的強勁成長。事實上，我們的客戶對我們的服務人員表示感謝，感謝他們在過去一兩年裡幫助他們簽訂了零部件服務合同，因為我們的客戶在支持和零部件方面都處於良好狀態。所以我認為零件問題和供應鏈問題並沒有真正影響我們的服務業務。

The other thing, which we'll point out, and Gary might give you more detail, if you look at the parts of the constraint, things like PLCs and stuff, which are components -- in components, those are not the parts that are high replacement service parts in the service supply chain. So I think we're in pretty good shape on the service business, and it's a great business for us.

還有一點，我們稍後會提到，Gary 可能會提供更詳細的解釋，如果你仔細查看一下這些限制因素，例如 PLC 之類的組件——這些組件並非服務供應鏈中高更換率的部件。所以我認為我們在服務業務方面處於非常有利的地位，這對我們來說是一項非常棒的業務。

And Bob, how would you guide services in fiscal '22 as a percent? Low double digit?

鮑勃，你預計2022財年服務業的成長百分比是多少？低兩位數嗎？

Yes, I think it's low double digits growth.

是的，我認為是兩位數的低成長率。

Your next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。

Just a clarification. What do you expect Display to do overall in this fiscal '22? And then my question is, this year, we have seen your foundry customers raise their prices. Fabless customers, IDM, they are raising their prices. What about the equipment side? How much pricing power do you guys have, right, that can help mitigate some of these supply chain issues? Because you did mention kind of a hit on your gross margin. So as you start to see some of the supply situation recover, should we expect this combination of pricing and the supply side help you to cover gross margins quickly? Or will the gross margin recovery take time?

我再澄清一下。您對2022財年顯示業務的整體預期是什麼？另外，今年我們看到您的代工廠客戶提高了價格。無晶圓廠客戶和整合裝置製造商（IDM）都在漲價。那麼設備方面呢？你們的定價權有多大？能否藉此緩解一些供應鏈問題？因為您之前提到毛利率受到了一定影響。隨著供應情況開始好轉，我們是否可以預期價格和供應方面的因素能夠幫助你們迅速彌補毛利率的不足？還是說毛利率的恢復需要時間？

Vivek, this is Gary. Thanks for the question. There's 2 parts to this. I'll take the first part, and then Bob can take the second part. Relative to Display, we've talked about that many times, really good adjacent market where we can take our semi deposition and e-beam technologies into a market with larger substrates.

維韋克，我是加里。謝謝你的提問。這個問題分為兩部分。我先回答第一部分，然後鮑伯回答第二部分。關於顯示器，我們已經討論過很多次了，這是一個非常好的相鄰市場，我們可以將半沉積和電子束技術應用到使用更大尺寸基板的市場中。

For '21, as expected, we're on track for a little over $1.6 billion in revenue and maintaining strong share of our served market. We think '22 is a little higher than '21, more second half versus first half. And as Bob also discussed in the prepared remarks, we're on track to achieve our target for higher profit and free cash flow in the 25% to 30% range exiting 2022.

如預期，2021年我們的營收可望略高於16億美元，並維持較高的市佔率。我們認為2022年的業績將略高於2021年，下半年業績將優於上半年。正如鮑伯在事先準備好的發言稿中所述，我們預計將實現2022年底利潤和自由現金流成長25%至30%的目標。

And then Bob, you have the second part.

然後，鮑勃，你還有第二部分。

In terms of -- your second question is kind of a broader gross margin question. So if you look at gross margins this past year, we're up 2.4 points, which is great performance. We're on track to hit the model, which is, I think, about 48.5% in the out years. We're a little soft right now in Q1, and that's all supply chain stuff. As we go out through the year, we expect gross margins to rise up again as we get the supply chain issues behind us.

關於你的第二個問題，它更側重於毛利率。如果你看去年的毛利率，我們成長了2.4個百分點，這是一個非常好的成績。我們正朝著既定目標穩步前進，我認為未來幾年的毛利率應該在48.5%左右。目前第一季的毛利率略顯疲軟，這主要是由於供應鏈的問題。隨著時間的推移，我們預計隨著供應鏈問題的解決，毛利率將會再次回升。

In terms of the things that impact gross margin, we did a lot of good things in 2021. We had very good cost reduction. We had high-value products and services. We sold to the customers, and we recognize that value back from the customers. And then we have pretty good volume and mix, which helped, too.

就影響毛利率的因素而言，我們在2021年做了很多好事。我們大幅降低了成本。我們推出了高價值的產品和服務。我們向客戶銷售產品，並從客戶那裡獲得了相應的回報。此外，我們的銷售和產品組合也相當不錯，這也起到了積極作用。

If you look at prospectively, the cost reduction is a little slower. We will continue to realize high value with the customers. We share that value, and we think that's going to help our margins. And if the cost continue, we may even have that discussion at some point.

從長遠來看，成本削減的速度會稍慢。我們將繼續為客戶創造高價值。我們與客戶共享這些價值，並認為這將有助於提高我們的利潤率。如果成本持續上升，我們或許會在某個時候討論這個問題。

Yes. So margin's kind of flattish in the first half and then maybe a little better in the second half if we keep the supply chain.

是的。所以上半年利潤率比較平穩，如果我們能保持供應鏈穩定，下半年可能會略有改善。

Yes, I think so. And I think the year is a little better than this share overall by the time we're done.

是的，我也這麼認為。而且我覺得到年底的時候，整體業績會比這個數字略好。

Okay. Any comments on pricing? I think Vivek was kind of...

好的。關於定價有什麼意見嗎？我覺得維韋克有點…

Yes, we look to share value with customers, and I think that's worked for both of us.

是的，我們希望與客戶分享價值，我認為這對雙方都有好處。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Bob, welcome back. Gary, in your prepared remarks, you talked about localization of semiconductor capacity going forward. Obviously, there's a lot of talks in the United States and Europe, in Asia as well, more recently, Japan. How are you thinking about the potential impact from all these projects? I think from a timing perspective, most of us are thinking 2023 or even later. But based on what you know, all the discussions you're having, how are you thinking about that? And sort of related to that, how should we think about the competitive threat from the local Chinese semi-cap companies? I know they've been around for a very long time. And up until this point, there remains a very significant gap between incumbents like yourselves and them. But how concerned should we be as we think about your business over the next 3 to 5 years?

鮑勃，歡迎回來。加里，你在事先準備好的演講稿中談到了半導體產能在地化的未來發展。顯然，美國、歐洲、亞洲，尤其是最近的日本，都在熱議這個問題。你如何看待所有這些項目可能帶來的影響？我認為從時間安排來看，我們大多數人都在考慮2023年甚至更晚。但根據你所了解的情況，以及你參與的所有討論，你對此有何看法？另外，我們該如何看待來自中國本土半導體公司的競爭威脅？我知道他們已經在這個行業深耕多年。到目前為止，像你們這樣的老牌企業與他們之間仍然存在著巨大的差距。但展望未來3到5年，我們該對此有多擔憂？

Yes. Thanks for the questions, Toshiya. Relative to localization of supply chains and things like the CHIPS Act, that's obviously good for our business. We're in discussions. As I mentioned earlier, I've met with all of the top CEOs here in the last quarter. And that's -- as they move to these other new locations, that creates an opportunity for us to support them, especially with our services business. So we're in very close cooperation with those customers as they move forward with those plans. And there's opportunities.

是的，謝謝你的提問，Toshiya。關於供應鏈本地化以及像CHIPS法案這樣的政策，這顯然對我們的業務有利。我們正在進行相關討論。正如我之前提到的，上個季度我與這裡所有的高階主管都見了面。隨著他們搬遷到新的地點，這為我們提供支援創造了機會，尤其是在我們的服務業務方面。因此，我們正在與這些客戶密切合作，協助他們推動這些計劃。其中蘊藏著很多機會。

I think for them, they're also concerned about cost and cultural differences and all of those things. And so that creates a tremendous opportunity, not just for our traditional services, but opportunities like AI(x), Applied Actionable Insight Acceleration, where I think they're also extremely focused on how to accelerate R&D ramp and optimize high-volume manufacturing in new locations. So I think that really creates a tremendous opportunity for us.

我認為他們也同樣關注成本、文化差異等等問題。因此，這不僅為我們的傳統服務創造了巨大的機遇，也為人工智慧加速（AI(x)）和應用可操作洞察加速（Applied Actionable Insight Acceleration）等領域帶來了機會。我認為他們也極度關注如何加速研發投入，並在新的生產地點優化大規模生產。所以我認為這確實為我們創造了巨大的機會。

The other part of the CHIPS Act is really how every government runs faster in innovation and commercialization. And we're also in deep discussions with a number of leading technology companies. And that will also create an opportunity, I believe, for Applied.

《晶片技術創新與商業化法案》（CHIPS Act）的另一部分內容，實際上是各國政府如何加速創新和商業化進程。我們也正在與多家領先的科技公司進行深入洽談。我相信，這也會為應用材料公司創造機會。

Relative to the China equipment suppliers, really, if you look at what every single customer is focused on, it's providing power, performance and costs ahead of others. We talk about PPACt, and the T is incredibly important. And whether it's -- we talk about low-resistance wiring, which is probably one of the biggest issues in the industry where we have tremendous strength, or gate all around transistors or the scaling in memory or packaging, that is incredibly complex and difficult. And the companies that are ahead on power, performance and cost capture really the majority of the market. So I really believe that Applied is even in a stronger position going forward than we've been in the past relative to local competition.

相對於中國設備供應商而言，如果你仔細觀察每位客戶的關注點，你會發現他們都在努力提供比競爭對手更強大的功率、性能和成本優勢。我們常說PPACt，其中T至關重要。無論是低電阻佈線（這可能是業界最大的優勢之一），還是全包圍閘極電晶體、記憶體或封裝的微縮，這些都極其複雜且困難。那些在功率、性能和成本方面領先的公司實際上佔據了大部分市場份額。因此，我堅信，與以往相比，應用材料公司未來的發展地位將更加穩固，尤其是在與本地競爭對手的較量中。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

Bob, welcome back. I just wanted to check on the fact that some of these constraints are pushing out revenues into next year, and it looks like maybe in the first half of next year, the WFE run rate could hit $100 billion. So I just wanted to figure out from your vantage point, how do you think about that? And you also mentioned that you're trending towards our target model, but obviously, the margins are impacted because of constraints. And the target model at $10 in EPS and $100 billion in WFE. How much discount should we give to that $10 in this constrained environment?

鮑勃，歡迎回來。我只是想確認一下，由於一些限制因素，部分營收被推遲到明年，而且看起來明年上半年WFE（工廠營運支出）的年化收入可能會達到1000億美元。所以我想從你的角度來看，你對此有何看法？你也提到公司正朝著我們的目標模式邁進，但顯然，利潤率會受到限制因素的影響。目標模型是每股收益10美元，WFE 1000億美元。在這種受限的環境下，我們應該對這10美元的預期做出多大的調整？

Well, we think WFE is up next year. I think we probably said in the script it could be up -- I think at this time, we don't want to be too specific. We're talking to kind of 10% up next year. And I'd say pretty confident in that, frankly.

我們認為WFE明年會成長。我想我們在劇本裡可能也提到可能會成長──不過現在我們還不想說得太具體。我們預計明年會成長10%左右。坦白說，我對這個數字相當有信心。

If you look at the run rate in the first half, the visibility is a little better in the first half. And we have very strong orders and booking potential in the first half. We actually think the second half is going to get a little stronger even on bookings than what we have today, frankly. Everything we've talked to customers is bullish, particularly in the foundry/logic area.

如果觀察上半年的業績成長情況，會發現上半年的前景更加明朗。而且，我們上半年的訂單量和預訂量都非常強勁。坦白說，我們認為下半年的預訂量甚至會比現在更高。我們與所有客戶的溝通都顯示，他們對前景持樂觀態度，尤其是在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域。

If you go look at the model, it's -- $100 billion, I think that's a real number nowadays. I don't know that it's a real number next year at this point. I think we achieved that $100 billion. We'll hit the model, and it was the model $10. I think we'll do it.

如果你去看模型，那就是──1000億美元，我認為現在這算是比較現實的數字。至於明年是否還能達到這個數字，我現在還不太確定。我認為我們已經實現了1000億美元的目標。我們會達到模型預測的1000億美元。我認為我們能做到。

Yes. Maybe I can add, Krish, one more thing relative to 2022 and then going forward, backlog for us is very strong. Again, I've met with all of these leading customers, foundry/logic, memory, ICAPS. And as Bob mentioned earlier, if you look at what they're publicly talking about in terms of their investments over multiple years, it's very, very strong. And some of this, obviously, I can't share publicly, but I have very high confidence that the business is going to remain strong through '22. And right now, '23 also looks good for us. And certainly, again, if you just look at all the public statements from those customers, again, they're not planning on a short cycle. They're planning to be ready with capacity to capture the opportunities.

是的。 Krish，或許我可以補充一點，關於2022年及以後的發展，我們的訂單儲備非常充足。我再次與所有主要客戶會面，包括晶圓代工/邏輯晶片、記憶體和ICAPS等。正如Bob之前提到的，如果你看看他們公開談論的多年投資計劃，你會發現他們的投資力度非常強勁。當然，其中一些細節我無法公開，但我非常有信心，業務在2022年將保持強勁勢頭。目前來看，2023年的前景也不錯。而且，如果你看看這些客戶的公開聲明，你會發現他們並沒有計劃短期生產。他們計劃做好充分的產能準備，以抓住市場機會。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的Timothy Arcuri。

And Bob, welcome back. So I guess I have a question on WFE share. Gary, you talked about that a lot. And optically, your share this year is flat in the 20.2% to 20.3% range. But obviously, that's not representative because you would have done $300 million more in October. So I'm kind of wondering if you can adjust January for us. So what would January have been in terms of SSG if you had the supply? Would you have -- would that $4.45 billion guidance would have been, say, $300 million higher? I'm just trying to adjust your share higher because obviously, this year, you gained a lot of share on an adjusted basis.

鮑勃，歡迎回來。我想問一下關於WFE市場佔有率的問題。加里，你之前也多次提到。從表面上看，你們今年的市佔率基本上持平，在20.2%到20.3%之間。但顯然，這並不具代表性，因為如果10月的銷售額沒有增加，你們的銷售額會高出3億美元。所以我想請你幫我們調整1月的數據。如果供應充足，1月的SSG（同店銷售）會是多少？你們之前給的44.5億美元的業績指引會不會高出3億美元？我只是想把你們的市佔率調整得更高一些，因為很明顯，今年你們的市佔率在調整後大幅成長。

Yes. Tim, thanks for the question. Certainly, Q1 would have been significantly higher. I think Bob gave some color on that. But certainly, demand is far higher than supply. When you take us -- and outperformed in '19. We outperformed in '20. We're definitely -- we're on track to outperform in '21. We also feel very good about '22 and going forward. But I don't know if I want to be more specific other than what the color that we've already given on the call, but definitely would have been significantly higher in Q1 and then going into 2022.

是的，提姆，謝謝你的提問。當然，第一季的業績會顯著更高。我想鮑伯已經對此做了一些闡述。但可以肯定的是，需求遠大於供給。看看我們－我們在2019年和2020年都取得了優異的業績。我們絕對－我們有望在2021年繼續保持優異表現。我們對2022年及以後的發展也充滿信心。但除了我們在電話會議上已經提到的內容之外，我不知道是否還要透露更多細節，但可以肯定的是，第一季以及進入2022年後，業績肯定會顯著更高。

In terms of the different parts of our business, we've talked about wiring resistance in foundry/logic really is the biggest challenge for our customers. As they shrink these features, resistance goes up. And we gave some color on copper barrier seed tool with 7 different technologies that is worth billions of dollars. And what I said in the prepared remarks is that we have 5 of these innovations that we're delivering to customers, and we haven't quantified all of them, but it's very sizable in areas where Applied is really unique in enabling the solutions to wiring resistance. In the one case, we've talked about 50% improvement in resistance.

就我們業務的各個方面而言，我們之前討論過，晶圓代工/邏輯電路中的佈線電阻確實是我們客戶面臨的最大挑戰。隨著這些元件尺寸的縮小，電阻也會跟著增加。我們也詳細介紹了價值數十億美元的銅阻擋層種子工具，它融合了七種不同的技術。我在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，我們正在向客戶交付其中五項創新技術，雖然我們尚未對所有技術進行量化，但這些技術在應用材料公司真正擅長的佈線電阻解決方案領域意義重大。例如，我們曾提到其中一項技術可以將電阻降低 50%。

And then you look at gate-all-around, again, we feel very good about our position in the transistor to gain share. That's $1 billion opportunity. And relative to our FinFET position, we believe we're positioned to gain share as that goes forward. Certainly, in foundry/logic, our etch share is increasing. Our EUV etch share is increasing. Our PDC share, we've talked about our business being up more than 60% overall. And just, again, really very, very strong position with integrated solutions. I gave some color on co-optimization and gave an example in the memory market where, again, we have a big opportunity. So Tim, I feel really good about our position going forward.

然後，再看看環柵技術，我們對自身在電晶體領域的市場地位非常有信心，相信能夠進一步擴大市場份額。這是一個價值10億美元的市場機會。相對於我們在FinFET領域的地位，我們相信隨著FinFET的發展，我們能夠進一步擴大市場佔有率。當然，在晶圓代工/邏輯領域，我們的蝕刻市場佔有率正在成長。我們的EUV蝕刻市場份額也在成長。我們的PDC市場份額，正如我們之前提到的，整體業務成長超過60%。而且，我們在整合解決方案方面也擁有非常非常強大的優勢。我簡要介紹了協同優化，並在記憶體市場舉了一個例子，說明我們在這個領域擁有巨大的機會。所以，Tim，我對我們未來的發展前景非常樂觀。

Yes. And Tim, I add one more thing for you. So I know in the past, instead of waiting for Gartner group to come out with market share, what you always did is you took our fiscal Q2 through fiscal Q1 as a proxy for our revenue. And what's interesting is what we did back in February, we kind of disclosed in our conference call. And then in April, I wrote everybody that we've made a similar adjustment ourselves. So what we're now doing is our calendar year revenue for VLSI share purposes, it's now based on our financial reporting in fiscal Q2 through fiscal Q1. And one benefit of that change is that as soon as we guide Q1, which we just did today, now you can forecast our WFE revenue for share purposes, and you can make an apples-to-apples with the peer group.

是的。提姆，我再補充一點。我知道過去你們的做法是，不等 Gartner 公佈市場佔有率數據，而是用我們第二財季到第一財季的財務數據來估算收入。有趣的是，我們在二月的電話會議上透露了我們所做的調整。四月份，我又寫信告訴大家，我們也做了類似的調整。現在，為了計算 VLSI 市場份額，我們採用的日曆年度收入是基於我們第二財季到第一財季的財務報告。這項改變的好處之一是，一旦我們發布了第一財季的業績指引（就像我們今天發布的那樣），你們就可以預測我們 WFE 的收入，從而與同行進行更公平的比較。

And then I just wanted to call your attention to one other number in the script today. Bob sized our AGS 200-millimeter revenue at around $650 million for the calendar year. So now you have all of the numbers that you need to make a share assumption. So I just wanted to give you that background. And we look forward, Bob and I, to seeing the investors at your conference.

然後，我想提一下今天稿子裡的另一個數字。鮑伯估計我們AGS 200毫米鏡頭的年度營收約為6.5億美元。現在，你們已經掌握了所有必要的數字，可以進行份額估算了。我只是想先介紹一下背景。我和鮑伯都期待在你們的會議上見到各位投資人。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Bob, welcome back to the team. On the chip shortages, you talked about some of the areas, which have not been impacted as much, process control, CMP, etch, packaging systems, but that leaves things like deposition implant, thermal processes and many other areas. And I'm sure even within that, it's different for different systems architectures like leading edge versus ICAPS. So I'm trying to figure out what's the implication of -- which of your end markets are getting more impacted given that there are different etch deposition, pattern intensities -- patterning intensities and system configurations? Is foundry and logic getting more impacted? Is it memory that's getting more impacted? Is it ICAPS? Or is it across all of your customer segments? And also is your Display business being impacted as well?

鮑勃，歡迎回到團隊。關於晶片短缺，你提到了一些受影響較小的領域，例如製程控制、CMP、蝕刻和封裝系統，但沉積注入、熱處理製程以及其他許多領域也受到了影響。我相信即使在這些領域內，不同的系統架構（例如尖端技術與ICAPS）也會有所不同。因此，我想了解一下，考慮到蝕刻沉積、圖形強度和系統配置的差異，你們的哪些終端市場受到更大的影響？是代工和邏輯電路受到的影響較大？是記憶體受到的影響更大？是ICAPS受到的影響更大？還是你們所有的客戶群都受到了影響？另外，你們的展示業務是否也受到了影響？

So Harlan, this is Gary. First off, I would say that Display is not being impacted. Relative to the different device types, I don't know that I would separate one versus the other relative to the impact. Just as an example, in the foundry/logic business, ICAPS in Varian, our business in ICAPS, our share is up significantly in our implant market, and our revenue is up 4x over the last 2 years. So again, I think that when you look across the different products, there are specific components. It's not broad-based. But again, I wouldn't necessarily say that it's one market or another when you look at the impact.

哈蘭，我是加里。首先，我想說顯示業務並未受到影響。就不同類型的裝置而言，我認為很難區分它們受到的影響。舉個例子，在晶圓代工/邏輯業務方面，瓦里安的ICAPS業務，也就是我們ICAPS業務，在植入式晶片市場的份額顯著增長，過去兩年收入增長了四倍。所以，我認為，從不同產品來看，影響主要體現在特定元件上，而不是普遍存在。但我再次強調，在分析影響時，我並不認為應該將影響力局限於某個特定的市場。

Our next question comes from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇。

I wanted to double-click on your expectations for first half calendar 2022 being above second half '21. Does that apply to memory as well? Or should we think about that growth being mostly foundry/logic-driven and maybe memory is more second half-weighted?

我想再次強調您對2022年上半年業績將高於2021年下半年的預期。這是否也適用於記憶體領域？或者我們應該認為這種成長主要由晶圓代工/邏輯晶片驅動，而記憶體領域的成長可能更集中在下半年？

Yes. So if you look at our 2021 data in terms of memory versus logic, we were a little stronger in the first half on memory. And then if you look at -- I'm going to look at the actual data. So our foundry was a little stronger in the second half, and our memory NAND was a little strong in the first half, DRAM a little strong in the second half, actually.

是的。所以，如果你看一下我們2021年的數據，從記憶體和邏輯晶片的角度來看，我們在上半年記憶體方面表現稍強一些。然後，如果你看一下——我接下來要看一下實際數據——我們的晶圓代工業務在下半年表現稍強一些，而我們的NAND閃存在上半年表現稍強一些，DRAM在下半年表現稍強一些。

If you look at next year, we think the year is kind of flattish. We think it's probably a little more second half weighted in memory next year. I think foundry is pretty strong throughout the year, but I don't think there's a big delta.

展望明年，我們認為整體市場走勢較為穩定。內存業務的佔比可能會在下半年略高一些。我認為鑄造業務全年表現都比較強勁，但整體波動幅度應該不會太大。

Yes. So overall, WFE...

是的。所以總的來說，WFE…

I think overall, WFE is up. I think foundry is a bigger percentage. I think memory is kind of flattish, ends up a little bit. DRAM is down a little bit. I think the split within next year, my memory is a little better in the second half, but I'm not sure.

我認為總體而言，WFE（晶圓製造設備）業務有所成長。晶圓代工業務的佔比應該更大。記憶體業務基本上持平，可能略有成長。 DRAM（動態記憶體）業務則略有下降。我認為明年下半年情況會有所好轉，但我不確定。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Patrick Ho。

And likewise, Bob, I guess one rodeo wasn't enough for you. So welcome back. Maybe just following up on the AGS side of things. Given the high utilization rates, the high demand for chips today, have you seen any incremental type of pickups in your services business just because your customers are trying to keep their tools running as best as possible? Are you seeing any incremental pickup in subscription businesses just because of the current environment?

同樣，鮑勃，看來一次牛仔競技表演還不夠你玩夠。歡迎回來。我想再跟進一下AGS方面的狀況。鑑於目前的高利用率和對晶片的高需求，你的服務業務是否因為客戶努力保持工具的最佳運作狀態而有所成長？訂閱業務是否也因為當前的市場環境而成長？

Yes. I think the answer is yes. I'm not sure if I covered it completely the call. I'll give you some data. You guys like data. If you look -- I want to look at sustainability of all this. So we looked at bookings, backlog, orders rates, stuff like that. The other thing I looked at was growth in wafer starts and tool utilization, right? So I'm not sure if we said it in the call, but tool utilization at the end of the calendar fiscal year was at an all-time high in the last 11 years I look back at across all device types. So that gave me confidence this thing is sustainable and looks pretty good and is good for our service business.

是的，我認為答案是肯定的。我不確定在電話會議上是否完全涵蓋了這一點。我再提供一些數據。你們喜歡數據。我想看看這一切的可持續性。所以我們查看了訂單量、積壓訂單、訂單轉換率等等。我還查看了晶圓開工量和設備利用率的成長情況，對吧？我不確定我們在電話會議中是否提到過，但就我回顧的過去11年的數據來看，所有裝置類型的設備利用率在上一財年末都達到了歷史最高水平。這讓我相信這項業務是可持續的，而且前景相當不錯，這對我們的服務業務來說也是一件好事。

And then I also looked at growth in wafer starts. And growth in wafer starts, I think I said in the call, is about 40% foundry/logic and kind of about 20% memory since 2016, particularly strong in 300-millimeter wafer starts for foundry/logic. So then if you go with the question you asked, Patrick, we grew our service business 12% -- 21% last year. We're looking at about 12% this year. And if you look at high utilization, foundry/logic tools growing particularly well for us. We did pretty well in etch in previous years also. I see our service -- and we increased our contract and the life of our contracts from 1 to 3 years. The subscription revenue business, sustainability of the service business looks really good.

然後我還關注了晶圓開工量的成長。正如我在電話會議中提到的，自 2016 年以來，晶圓開工量的成長中，代工/邏輯晶片約佔 40%，記憶體約佔 20%，其中 300 毫米晶圓代工/邏輯晶片的開工量成長尤為強勁。派崔克，如果你繼續你提出的問題，我們去年的服務業務成長了 12% 到 21%，預計今年將成長約 12%。從高利用率來看，代工/邏輯晶片設備的利用率成長尤為顯著。前幾年，我們在蝕刻業務方面也表現良好。我認為我們的服務——我們將合約期限從 1 年延長至 3 年——訂閱收入業務以及服務業務的可持續性看起來都非常好。

Patrick, this is Gary. Just one other comment. In the discussions I've had with all of the CEOs, one thing that was pointed out was that having these subscription agreements and forecasted parts management, they said we're profiling better than others because they have those parts there. So from a supply standpoint, they said that was a big differentiator and gives them more conviction to continue and expand that type of approach.

派崔克，我是加里。還有一點要補充。在我與所有CEO的討論中，他們都提到一點：有了這些訂閱協議和預測性零件管理，他們說我們的業績比其他公司更好，因為他們可以提前獲得這些零件。所以從供應角度來看，他們認為這是一個很大的優勢，也讓他們更有信心繼續並擴大這種模式。

Your next question comes from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

I just wanted to ask about your outlook for China next year. In 2022, you said it would be down slightly. Wondering if you could give us a little bit more color what's driving that decline. Is it just digestion of capacity put in place this year? Do you see any political or export control impact or perhaps a trend towards supplier localization in China next year?

我想問一下您對明年中國市場的展望。您提到2022年中國市場會略為下滑。能否請您詳細解釋一下下滑的原因？只是今年新增產能的消化嗎？您認為明年中國市場是否會受到政治因素、出口管製或供應商在地化趨勢的影響？

Let me give some -- you guys are good data guys, and I'll give you some data. So 3 things in China. It's down some next year but pretty strong.

讓我提供你們一些數據──你們都是數據分析高手，那我就提供你們一些數據。關於中國，有三件事值得關注。明年中國經濟會有所下滑，但整體依然強勁。

The second thing is if you look at trend and local versus -- spending by local companies versus international companies, it's trending up. It was high 70s, kind of 77% this year, about 82% next year.

第二點是，如果你觀察趨勢，看看本地企業與國際企業的支出對比，你會發現本地企業與國際企業的支出比例呈現上升趨勢。今年這個比例接近70%，大約在77%左右，明年預計會達到82%左右。

The third is mix and business. So they've trended like the rest of the world to go a little bit more foundry/logic. So they were like 52% -- 48% memory this year, going to like 52% next year. So they're trending that way. In terms of where it's down, I think DRAM is down a little bit in China next year and foundry. But the mix to foundry is trending up.

第三點是產品組合和業務。他們的發展趨勢與世界其他地區一樣，更多地轉向晶圓代工/邏輯電路。今年他們的記憶體業務佔比約為 52% 到 48%，預計明年將回升至 52%。所以他們的發展趨勢正是如此。至於哪些領域會下滑，我認為明年中國的 DRAM 和晶圓代工業務會略有下降。但晶圓代工業務的佔比整體呈上升趨勢。

Our last question comes from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I have a question on the process control side. You guys talked about process control was not an area that was impacted by supply constraints, and now growing about 80 -- 60% for this year. You guys also talked about a number of AI(x) engagements potentially tripling next year instead of doubling. Just can you help us understand how these engagements impact your revenue growth potential? Do they generally translate into revenue in the same year or a number of years? Do they increase the overall size of the market or just an opportunity for Applied to gain shares? And generally, just how you measure success with those engagements?

我有一個關於流程控制的問題。你們提到流程控制領域不受供應限制的影響，並且今年預計將成長 60% 到 80%。你們也提到，明年一些 AI(x) 項目的數量可能會翻三倍，而不是兩倍。能否請你們解釋一下這些項目對你們的收入成長潛力有何影響？它們通常會在當年轉化為收入，還是需要幾年？它們是擴大了市場整體規模，還是僅僅為 Applied 提供了獲取市場份額的機會？你們通常如何衡量這些項目的成功？

Yes. This is Gary. Thanks for the question. So the fastest-growing largest part of our PDC business is our e-beam product family, and we have tremendous leadership there. We're growing share a significant amount. The strength is really on our resolution and speed of imaging. And we're expanding that gap with coal field emission where we have about a 50% resolution advantage versus others.

是的，我是 Gary。謝謝你的提問。我們 PDC 業務中成長最快、規模最大的部分是電子束產品系列，我們在該領域擁有絕對領先地位。我們的市場佔有率正在顯著成長。我們的優勢在於成像的解析度和速度。而且，我們在煤田排放檢測領域正在擴大這一優勢，我們的解析度比其他廠商高出約 50%。

And so when you think about the -- certainly, the growth there -- and we have line of sight to really good growth also in 2022. This co-optimization with e-beam is very, very important. We talked about that, an example, for capacitor scaling where we're combining a new material we call Draco, with innovative etch technology. And basically, optimizing these process is incredibly complex. You're trying to optimize many, many different parameters at the same time. And the goal is to optimize those recipes as fast as possible with big process windows because that directly impacts yield. So this combination with e-beam is incredibly important.

所以，當你考慮到——當然，成長前景廣闊——而且我們預計2022年也將迎來非常可觀的成長時，與電子束的協同優化就顯得至關重要。我們之前討論過，舉個例子，在電容器尺寸縮小方面，我們將一種名為Draco的新材料與創新的蝕刻技術結合。基本上，優化這些工藝極為複雜。你需要同時優化許多不同的參數。目標是在盡可能大的製程窗口內盡快優化這些配方，因為這直接影響良率。因此，與電子束的結合至關重要。

When you think about, again, capacitor scaling or gate-all-around or any of these big inflections, the ability to map that out and look at those fingerprints across the chip, you look at pattern loading for isolated dense structures, fingerprints across the wafer, being able to map out this multi-dimension space, and with the unique imaging of those features, which we have with our e-beam system, and then we talked about the Applied process recipe optimization, AppliedPRO within AI(x), it's really an enormous focus for all of our different customers.

當你再次思考電容縮放、全包圍閘極或任何這些重大轉折點時，能夠繪製出這些轉折點並查看晶片上的這些特徵，你會觀察孤立密集結構的圖案加載，晶圓上的特徵，能夠繪製出這個多維空間，並利用我們電子束系統對這些特徵進行的獨特成像，然後我們討論了應用程式設計，即所有不同的原始程式設計 AppliedPROlied

So it certainly is growing our PDC business, but even more impactful, the opportunity for us to capture value with our IMS platforms, our co-optimized platforms is worth billions of dollars. So that is an accelerator for us that we're -- that gives us a tailwind, whether it's low R, gate-all-around, memory scaling, all of those different capabilities. And that's a great leading indicator going from 25 engagements to 75 next year. It does translate into wins in terms of these big inflections, accelerating the inflections. The T of the PPACt is worth an enormous amount for our customers. So it's really -- it's tremendously synergistic with our overall strategy and opportunity.

因此，它無疑促進了我們PDC業務的成長，但更重要的是，我們利用IMS平台和協同優化平台獲取價值的機會價值數十億美元。這為我們提供了一個加速器，讓我們能夠順風順水，無論是低R值、全方位門控、記憶體擴展，還是其他各種功能。這是一個重要的先行指標，顯示我們明年的合作項目數量將從25個增加到75個。這確實能轉化為這些重大轉折點的成功，並加速這些轉折點的到來。 PPACt的T值對我們的客戶來說價值巨大。因此，它與我們的整體策略和機會確實具有極強的協同效應。

Thank you, Sidney. And Bob, would you like to help us close the call with some summary thoughts and...

謝謝你，西德尼。鮑勃，你能否幫我們總結一下這次通話的要點？

All right. I have some summary thoughts. But first, I'm going to go off script and just say it's great to be back. We have a good team, included Gary. And when I visualize coming back, I thought of myself a little bit like Arnold Schwarzenegger in The Terminator. I'll be back. And then unfortunately, everyone hears (inaudible) Welcome Back, Kotter, but I'm back anyway.

好了。我有一些總結性的想法。不過首先，我要即興發揮一下，說很高興能回來。我們有一個很棒的團隊，包括加里。當我設想自己回歸時，我覺得自己有點像《魔鬼終結者》裡的阿諾史瓦辛格。我會回來的。然後很不幸，大家聽到的是（聽不清楚）“歡迎回來，科特先生”，但我反正回來了。

So let's do the 3-legged stool. Our markets are in strong and in great shape. We think WFE is up next year and, frankly, positively biased until '23.

所以我們來分析這三點。我們的市場強勁且狀況良好。我們認為WFE明年將會上漲，坦白說，我們對WFE的樂觀情緒一直持續到2023年。

Second, Applied's position is strong. Our spending -- our demand is great. Our orders are great. Our backlog is great. The mix of the demand is really favorable for us, including foundry/logic, these advanced devices, ICAPS. It's really great.

其次，應用材料公司的地位非常穩固。我們的支出－我們的需求非常旺盛。我們的訂單量很大。我們的積壓訂單也很多。需求組合對我們非常有利，包括晶圓代工/邏輯裝置、這些先進裝置以及ICAPS。情況真的非常好。

Number three is our financial performance and capital returns. I have to admit, I was impressed that the gross margins went up 240 points this year, and we were up 540 points or 5.4% operating margins. And last year, we returned 96% of free cash flow to investors, and we're looking at a really strong cash flow this year. So I think the company is just in fundamentally great shape.

第三點是我們的財務表現和資本回報。我必須承認，今年毛利率成長了240個百分點，營業利潤率成長了540個百分點，即5.4%，這讓我印象深刻。去年，我們將96%的自由現金流返還給了投資者，我們預計今年的現金流將非常強勁。所以我認為公司的基本面非常好。

We have supply chain headwinds. We take full accountability for making it work and delivering to customers. We are all over this issue. And next quarter or so, we're going to make a lot of progress. But fundamentally, this company is in great shape, and I'm looking forward to working with all of you again.

我們面臨供應鏈的挑戰。我們會全力以赴確保供應鏈正常運作並準時交付給客戶。我們正在全力解決這個問題。預計在接下來的一個季度左右，我們將取得顯著進展。但從根本上講，公司目前狀況良好，我期待再次與大家共事。

All right. Thanks, Bob. We'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on our website by 5 p.m. Pacific Time today. And Gary and I look forward to seeing many of you at the Credit Suisse Conference in Scottsdale in just a little while. And so happy Thanksgiving, and thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。謝謝鮑勃。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。電話會議的錄音將於今天太平洋時間下午5點前在我們的網站上提供。我和加里期待著不久後在斯科茨代爾舉行的瑞士信貸會議上見到各位。祝大家感恩節快樂，也感謝大家一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。