應用材料 (AMAT) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

歡迎參加應用材料公司收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Bob Halliday, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好，感謝您參加應用材料公司的 2021 財年第四季度財報電話會議。加入我的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Dickerson；和我們的首席財務官 Bob Halliday。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到可能導致我們實際結果不同的風險和不確定性的影響。有關風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 最近提交給 SEC 的 10-Q 和 8-K 表格中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益材料中可以找到與 GAAP 措施的對賬，這些材料可在我們網站的 IR 頁面上找到，網址為 Appliedmaterials.com。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給 Gary Dickerson。

Thank you, Mike. I'd like to start by thanking our employees for delivering the best year in Applied Materials history while navigating a dynamic and challenging environment.

謝謝你，邁克。首先，我要感謝我們的員工在應用材料公司歷史上最好的一年，同時在充滿活力和挑戰性的環境中航行。

Demand for semiconductors and wafer fab equipment remains very strong. And in fiscal 2021, we generated $23 billion of revenue, which represents 34% annual growth. In fiscal Q4, we hit the midpoint of our earnings guidance despite larger-than-expected supply chain constraints. These constraints worsened in the last few weeks of the quarter as we experienced delayed shipments from several suppliers. Without these supply shortages, we estimate that our Q4 revenues would have been at least $300 million higher.

對半導體和晶圓廠設備的需求仍然非常強勁。在 2021 財年，我們創造了 230 億美元的收入，年增長率為 34%。在第四財季，儘管供應鏈限制大於預期，但我們仍達到了盈利指引的中點。這些限制在本季度的最後幾週惡化，因為我們遇到了幾家供應商的延遲發貨。如果沒有這些供應短缺，我們估計我們的第四季度收入至少會高出 3 億美元。

We expect supply chain headwinds to persist into fiscal 2022, and mitigating them remains our top priority. For this reason, I'll begin today's call by providing some additional details about the industry's supply dynamics, both near term and longer term. Next, I'll describe the demand outlook, which is very strong and broad-based. I'll then talk about the progress we're making against our growth strategy and how Applied Materials is positioned to outperform the market over the coming years.

我們預計供應鏈逆風將持續到 2022 財年，緩解它們仍然是我們的首要任務。出於這個原因，我將通過提供有關該行業近期和長期供應動態的一些額外細節來開始今天的電話會議。接下來，我將描述非常強勁和廣泛的需求前景。然後，我將討論我們在增長戰略方面取得的進展，以及應用材料公司如何在未來幾年超越市場。

I'm also happy to welcome Bob back to the CFO seat while we conduct the search for our next CFO. Later in the call, Bob will share his perspective on the state of the business and provide color on our financial performance.

在我們尋找下一任 CFO 時，我也很高興歡迎 Bob 回到 CFO 的位置。稍後在電話會議中，鮑勃將分享他對業務狀況的看法，並為我們的財務業績提供參考。

So let me start with the supply side of the equation. Applied has made and continues to make strategic investments in our own global manufacturing infrastructure, so factory capacity is not a limiting factor for us. Like many in the industry, the primary challenge we face today is availability of certain silicon components. For Applied, our issues are relatively narrow, and we are proactively collaborating with our suppliers and directly with the chip companies to find solutions and work around bottlenecks. I deeply appreciate their partnership and teamwork as we navigate these unprecedented circumstances together. Looking further ahead, I believe we will see permanent changes in the way supply chains are designed and operated.

所以讓我從等式的供應方面開始。 Applied 已經並將繼續對我們自己的全球製造基礎設施進行戰略投資，因此工廠產能不是我們的限制因素。與業內許多人一樣，我們今天面臨的主要挑戰是某些矽組件的可用性。對於 Applied，我們的問題相對較窄，我們正在積極與供應商合作，直接與芯片公司合作，尋找解決方案並解決瓶頸問題。在我們共同應對這些前所未有的情況時，我非常感謝他們的伙伴關係和團隊合作。展望未來，我相信我們將看到供應鏈的設計和運營方式發生永久性變化。

In the semiconductor industry and beyond, there's a shift from just-in-time to a just-in-case approach, which will require higher levels of inventory, more built-in redundancy and more burst capacity. Because the economic value of capturing upside opportunities far outweighs pure efficiency savings, we're also seeing changes in supply agreements across the ecosystem as companies place a premium on having preferential access to capacity.

在半導體行業及其他行業，從即時生產向以防萬一的方式轉變，這將需要更高水平的庫存、更多內置冗餘和更多突發容量。由於抓住上行機會的經濟價值遠遠超過純粹的效率節約，我們還看到整個生態系統的供應協議發生變化，因為公司重視優先獲得產能。

In addition, our customers are providing us with longer-term visibility, and we are collaborating more closely than ever when it comes to capacity planning. On top of that, the strategic importance of semiconductors is now recognized at a national level. Over the next few years, as incentive programs become available in the U.S., Europe and Asia, we expect to see a trend towards regionalized supply chains that are more resilient, but also increased capital intensity.

此外，我們的客戶為我們提供了更長期的可見性，在容量規劃方面，我們的合作比以往任何時候都更加密切。最重要的是，半導體的戰略重要性現在在國家層面得到認可。在接下來的幾年裡，隨著激勵計劃在美國、歐洲和亞洲的推出，我們預計將看到區域化供應鏈的趨勢，這些供應鏈更具彈性，但資本密集度也會增加。

Now I'll characterize the demand environment, which is extremely healthy. The pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation of the economy, fueling semiconductor consumption and driving the need for next-generation silicon technologies. As a result, we see wafer fab equipment spending for calendar 2021 up around 40% year-on-year, in other words, in the mid-$80 billion range and constrained by supply, not demand.

現在我將描述非常健康的需求環境。大流行加速了經濟的數字化轉型，推動了半導體消費並推動了對下一代矽技術的需求。因此，我們看到 2021 年的晶圓廠設備支出同比增長約 40%，換句話說，在 800 億美元左右，並且受到供應而非需求的限制。

There is still a long way to go before supply and demand is balanced, especially as demand drivers continue to grow. We, therefore, expect wafer fab equipment spending to be up again in 2022. While we're currently focused on resolving near-term challenges, it's important to recognize we're only at the beginning of major technology and market inflections that will play out over the next decade.

供需平衡還有很長的路要走，尤其是在需求驅動因素持續增長的情況下。因此，我們預計晶圓廠設備支出將在 2022 年再次上升。雖然我們目前專注於解決近期挑戰，但重要的是要認識到，我們正處於即將出現的主要技術和市場拐點的開始在接下來的十年裡。

As everything gets smarter from our phones to our cars, to our homes, we see a combination of unit growth and increasing silicon content per unit. For example, if you look at this year's high-end smartphones, by dollar value, the application processor semiconductor content is up about 20% compared to last year's models, and RF content increased at twice that rate. And in data center applications, the average DRAM and NAND content per server is also growing at a 20% compound annual growth rate.

隨著從我們的手機到我們的汽車，再到我們的家庭，一切都變得更加智能，我們看到了單位增長和單位矽含量增加的結合。例如，如果你看一下今年的高端智能手機，按美元價值計算，應用處理器的半導體含量比去年的型號增加了約 20%，而射頻含量則以兩倍的速度增長。而在數據中心應用中，每台服務器的平均 DRAM 和 NAND 內容也以 20% 的複合年增長率增長。

As more and more smart devices are connected at the edge, they are driving exponential growth in machine-generated data that must be stored, moved and processed. Then to create value from these vast volumes of data, new AI computing approaches are being developed, fueling further demand for current and next-generation semiconductors.

隨著越來越多的智能設備在邊緣連接，它們正在推動必須存儲、移動和處理的機器生成數據的指數級增長。然後，為了從這些海量數據中創造價值，正在開發新的人工智能計算方法，從而推動對當前和下一代半導體的進一步需求。

When I talk with customers, their message is clear and consistent. They are investing strategically to be in the best position to capture value as these long-term secular trends accelerate.

當我與客戶交談時，他們的信息是清晰而一致的。隨著這些長期長期趨勢的加速，他們正在進行戰略性投資，以便處於獲取價值的最佳位置。

In our core market, foundry/logic is about 60% of wafer fab equipment spending in 2021, and we expect it to remain at this level or higher over the next several years. Within foundry/logic, the spending mix is relatively balanced between the most advanced nodes where we see a fierce battle for leadership playing out in ICAPS.

在我們的核心市場中，代工/邏輯約佔 2021 年晶圓廠設備支出的 60%，我們預計未來幾年將保持在這一水平或更高水平。在代工廠/邏輯內部，最先進節點之間的支出組合相對平衡，我們看到 ICAPS 正在展開激烈的領導力爭奪戰。

ICAPS node serve the fast-growing IoT, communications, automotive, power electronics and sensor markets. In memory, supply and demand fundamentals remain healthy, and we expect investments to be up next year, although not as much as foundry/logic.

ICAPS 節點服務於快速增長的物聯網、通信、汽車、電力電子和傳感器市場。在內存方面，供需基本面保持健康，我們預計明年投資將增加，儘管不如鑄造/邏輯那麼多。

Finally, capital intensity is also providing an important tailwind. With the deceleration of traditional Moore's Law scaling and the transition to the new PPACt playbook, complexity is increasing. Simply put, more innovation is needed to get from one node to the next. And this higher complexity translates to higher capital intensity.

最後，資本密集度也提供了重要的推動力。隨著傳統摩爾定律縮放的減速和向新 PPACt 劇本的過渡，複雜性正在增加。簡而言之，從一個節點到下一個節點需要更多的創新。這種更高的複雜性轉化為更高的資本密集度。

Against this backdrop, I'll now describe Applied's performance and progress towards our strategic goals. In fiscal 2021, we grew semiconductor equipment revenues almost $5 billion or 43% year-on-year, outpacing the market growth rate during that period. However, as I described earlier, we were unable to fully meet demand in our fourth quarter due to component shortages, and we expect to remain supply constrained going into fiscal 2022. As a result, we've grown our backlog at a company level to $11.8 billion, which is up 77% compared to the same period last year.

在此背景下，我現在將描述應用材料公司在實現我們的戰略目標方面的表現和進展。在 2021 財年，我們的半導體設備收入同比增長近 50 億美元或 43%，超過了該期間的市場增長率。然而，正如我之前所描述的，由於零部件短缺，我們無法在第四季度完全滿足需求，我們預計到 2022 財年供應仍將受到限制。因此，我們在公司層面將積壓訂單增加到118億美元，比去年同期增長77%。

Our near-term results do not fully reflect the underlying strength in our business or the progress we're making against our long-term strategy. As a reminder, our strategy has 3 pillars: first, to be the PPACt enablement company and provide the foundation for customers' power, performance, area cost and time-to-market road maps; second, to shift more of our business to subscriptions; and third, to generate incremental free cash flows and profitability from our businesses in adjacent markets. We've aligned our organization and investments around these critical focus areas and are demonstrating strong momentum.

我們的近期業績並未完全反映我們業務的潛在實力或我們在長期戰略方面取得的進展。提醒一下，我們的戰略有 3 個支柱：首先，成為 PPACt 支持公司，為客戶的功率、性能、面積成本和上市時間路線圖提供基礎；第二，將我們更多的業務轉向訂閱；第三，從我們在鄰近市場的業務中產生增量自由現金流和盈利能力。我們圍繞這些關鍵的重點領域調整了我們的組織和投資，並顯示出強勁的勢頭。

Applied's PPACt enablement strategy is built upon 3 differentiated elements. We have the broadest and most enabling portfolio of unit process solutions. We can co-optimize and integrate these technologies in unique and highly enabling ways. And we're focused on time-to-market acceleration with our AI(x) or Actionable Insight Accelerator data platform.

Applied 的 PPACt 支持戰略建立在 3 個不同的元素之上。我們擁有最廣泛、最有能力的單元工藝解決方案組合。我們可以以獨特且高度支持的方式共同優化和集成這些技術。我們專注於通過我們的 AI(x) 或 Actionable Insight Accelerator 數據平台加快上市時間。

Starting with our unit process tools. Demand in our traditional leadership areas is very strong. Our epi and thermal businesses both grew 70% this fiscal year, and CMP grew more than 60%. And in our targeted growth areas, we expect our process diagnostic and control revenues to be up more than 60% in calendar 2021.

從我們的單元處理工具開始。我們傳統領導領域的需求非常強勁。本財年我們的外延和熱敏業務均增長了 70%，CMP 增長超過 60%。在我們的目標增長領域，我們預計我們的過程診斷和控制收入將在 2021 年增長 60% 以上。

Packaging is another very exciting area for us. Our equipment revenues are up more than 55% year-on-year, and we're on track to exceed $800 million for calendar 2021. We're also bringing highly enabling future technologies to market through a combination of organic R&D and strategic partnerships.

包裝對我們來說是另一個非常令人興奮的領域。我們的設備收入同比增長超過 55%，我們有望在 2021 年超過 8 億美元。我們還通過有機研發和戰略合作夥伴關係的結合，將高度賦能的未來技術推向市場。

Moving to our co-optimized and integrated products. The customer pull for these solutions is strong and increasing for future nodes. Co-optimization allows us to see and solve higher-value problems for customers, speed up commercialization of new innovations and capture more of the available opportunity. One example is dielectric materials where we're driving parallel innovations in materials deposition, modification and removal. Our CVD group has more than 15 new materials either in development or recently released. These enable new structures or manufacturing techniques in both foundry/logic and memory. The revenue opportunity we've opened up for the co-optimized etch and CMP steps is almost twice as large as the market for the stand-alone deposition equipment. Another example is advanced patterning where we're co-optimizing CVD, ALD and CMP with our Sym3 etch, enabling us to gain more than 5 points of share in patterning this year.

轉向我們共同優化和集成的產品。這些解決方案的客戶吸引力很強，並且對於未來的節點來說會越來越大。協同優化使我們能夠看到並為客戶解決更高價值的問題，加快新創新的商業化並抓住更多可用機會。一個例子是介電材料，我們正在推動材料沉積、改性和去除方面的並行創新。我們的 CVD 小組有超過 15 種新材料正在開發中或最近發布。這些使代工廠/邏輯和存儲器中的新結構或製造技術成為可能。我們為共同優化的蝕刻和 CMP 步驟開闢的收入機會幾乎是獨立沉積設備市場的兩倍。另一個例子是高級圖案化，我們正在使用 Sym3 蝕刻共同優化 CVD、ALD 和 CMP，使我們今年在圖案化方面獲得超過 5 個點的份額。

Integrated Materials Solutions, or IMS, go one step beyond co-optimization by combining multiple processes with customized metrology and sensors in a single system typically under vacuum. With IMS, we can target the most complex and valuable challenges in the new PPACt playbook. For example, this year, we delivered 5 new low R, or low resistance metallization integrated solutions to customers that address next-generation applications in foundry/logic, DRAM and NAND. This included our copper barrier seed IMS that combines 7 different process technologies in one system under vacuum, ALD, PVD, CVD, copper reflow, surface treatment, interface engineering and metrology. This enables a 50% reduction in interconnect resistance at the most advanced foundry/logic nodes and creates a multibillion-dollar opportunity for Applied Materials over the next 5 years.

集成材料解決方案或 IMS 通過將多個工藝與定制的計量和傳感器結合在一個通常在真空下的系統中，從而超越了協同優化。借助 IMS，我們可以針對新 PPACt 劇本中最複雜和最有價值的挑戰。例如，今年，我們向客戶交付了 5 款新的低 R 或低電阻金屬化集成解決方案，以解決代工/邏輯、DRAM 和 NAND 中的下一代應用。這包括我們的銅屏障種子 IMS，它在真空、ALD、PVD、CVD、銅回流、表面處理、界面工程和計量的一個系統中結合了 7 種不同的工藝技術。這使得最先進的代工/邏輯節點的互連電阻降低了 50%，並為應用材料公司在未來 5 年創造了數十億美元的機會。

The final component of our PPACt enablement strategy is time-to-market acceleration. New digital tools that accelerate R&D, technology transfer and high-volume manufacturing are a major focus area for our customers. In the coming years, these technologies will have a huge impact on productivity and innovation to commercialization speed. They will also play a key role in making regional supply chains economically competitive and sustainable. Our AI(x) platform brings together process tools, sensors, metrology with data analytics and machine learning. We currently have 25 AI(x) R&D acceleration engagements with leading customers, and we now expect that number to triple over the next 12 months.

我們 PPACt 支持戰略的最後一個組成部分是加快上市時間。加速研發、技術轉讓和大批量製造的新數字工具是我們客戶的主要關注領域。在未來幾年，這些技術將對生產力和創新商業化速度產生巨大影響。它們還將在使區域供應鏈具有經濟競爭力和可持續性方面發揮關鍵作用。我們的 AI(x) 平台將過程工具、傳感器、計量與數據分析和機器學習結合在一起。我們目前與主要客戶進行了 25 次 AI(x) 研發加速合作，我們現在預計該數字將在未來 12 個月內增加兩倍。

Another highlight for 2021 is the progress we're making with subscription revenues. In our service business, we've already converted a significant percentage of our spares and service revenue from on-demand to long-term service agreements. We now have nearly 15,000 installed base tools covered by these agreements, up 12% year-on-year. The tenure of these agreements has grown from 1.9 years at the end of 2020 to 2.3 years today, and our renewal rate is about 90%. Several customers have highlighted how these long-term agreements have allowed them to better manage disruptions in parts supply and technical support during the pandemic.

2021 年的另一個亮點是我們在訂閱收入方面取得的進展。在我們的服務業務中，我們已經將很大比例的備件和服務收入從按需轉換為長期服務協議。我們現在有近 15,000 個安裝在這些協議中的基礎工具，同比增長 12%。這些協議的期限從 2020 年底的 1.9 年增長到今天的 2.3 年，我們的續簽率約為 90%。一些客戶強調了這些長期協議如何使他們能夠在大流行期間更好地管理零部件供應和技術支持的中斷。

Before I hand the call over to Bob, I will quickly summarize. As the digital transformation of the economy accelerates, demand for semiconductors continues to grow and is significantly outpacing supply. We expect supply shortages of certain silicon components to persist in the near term, meaning that we don't expect to fully meet demand in Q1. Managing these constraints in partnership with our suppliers and chip makers is our top priority.

在我將電話交給 Bob 之前，我將快速總結一下。隨著經濟數字化轉型的加速，對半導體的需求持續增長，並顯著超過供應。我們預計某些矽組件的供應短缺將在短期內持續存在，這意味著我們預計不會在第一季度完全滿足需求。與我們的供應商和芯片製造商合作管理這些限制是我們的首要任務。

Looking beyond the near-term disruptions, I feel very positive about the future. Longer-term secular trends are driving the semiconductor and wafer fab equipment markets structurally higher. And at Applied, we're making significant progress towards our strategic plans. We are in the best position to accelerate our customers' PPACt road maps and grow significantly faster than our markets over the next several years.

除了近期的中斷之外，我對未來感到非常樂觀。長期趨勢正在推動半導體和晶圓廠設備市場結構性走高。在 Applied，我們在戰略計劃方面取得了重大進展。我們處於加速客戶 PPACt 路線圖的最佳位置，並且在未來幾年內的增長速度明顯快於我們的市場。

Now I'll hand the call over to Bob.

現在我將把電話交給鮑勃。

Thanks, Gary. I want to begin by saying I'm very happy for the opportunity to work with all of you again. I have 3 main messages today. Number one, demand is very strong and growing, and I think it's likely to remain strong in 2022 and beyond. Number two, supply chain constraints are impacting our ability to meet all of our demand in the near term. Number three, Applied Materials is making very good progress toward our financial targets, and we're in a great position to return capital to shareholders. I'll cover each of these topics in order and give you our guidance. And then Gary, Mike and I will help with your questions.

謝謝，加里。首先，我很高興有機會再次與大家合作。我今天有 3 條主要信息。第一，需求非常強勁且不斷增長，我認為它可能會在 2022 年及以後保持強勁。第二，供應鏈限制正在影響我們在短期內滿足所有需求的能力。第三，應用材料公司在實現我們的財務目標方面取得了很好的進展，我們處於向股東返還資本的有利位置。我將按順序介紹這些主題並為您提供指導。然後加里、邁克和我將幫助您解決問題。

I'll begin by giving you more detailed insights than we typically share about the demand for our products and its sustainability into 2022. Specifically, our Semi Systems revenue grew by 43% in 2021. Our Semi Systems orders grew by 78% for the year. In fact, our Semi Systems orders grew in every quarter. In Q4, they were up 136% year-over-year.

我將首先為您提供比我們通常分享的關於我們產品的需求及其到 2022 年可持續性的更詳細的見解。具體來說，我們的 Semi Systems 收入在 2021 年增長了 43%。我們的 Semi Systems 訂單在這一年增長了 78% .事實上，我們的半導體系統訂單每個季度都在增長。在第四季度，它們同比增長了 136%。

Looking ahead, we currently expect our orders to be higher in the first half of fiscal 2022 than in the second half of 2021 across Semi Systems, AGS and also Display. In short, the demand environment is very strong.

展望未來，我們目前預計 2022 財年上半年的半導體系統、AGS 和顯示器訂單將高於 2021 年下半年。總之，需求環境非常強勁。

What's happening on the demand side is that all of the trends Gary and I talked about years ago are playing out in an even bigger way than we imagined. First, semiconductor demand is higher because we're designing more intelligence into practically everything that gets built and sold. Second, equipment capital intensity is higher. We don't have wafer size increases anymore, and the industry has run out a number of efficiencies, including fab automation, industry consolidation and the foundry model.

需求方面的情況是，加里和我多年前談到的所有趨勢正在以比我們想像的更大的方式發揮作用。首先，半導體需求更高，因為我們正在為幾乎所有建造和銷售的東西設計更多智能。二是設備資金密集度較高。我們不再有晶圓尺寸的增加，並且該行業已經耗盡了許多效率，包括晶圓廠自動化、行業整合和代工模式。

Used equipment is now scarce. So even in the ICAPS markets, customers are buying new equipment and spending more. The industry is adding more wafer capacity to keep up with demand, particularly in foundry/logic, and we believe spending will remain strong.

二手設備現在稀缺。因此，即使在 ICAPS 市場，客戶也在購買新設備並花費更多。該行業正在增加更多的晶圓產能以滿足需求，特別是在代工/邏輯領域，我們相信支出將保持強勁。

Specifically, the industry grew foundry/logic wafer starts by around 40% over the past 5 years alone. At the end of our fiscal year, overall fab utilization for the industry increased to the highest level of the past decade. We see foundry/logic continuing to grow as a proportion of the industry's mix. Five years ago, foundry/logic represented around 53% of WFE spending. As of 2021, it's grown to 60% of WFE, and we see it being even higher into the future.

具體而言，僅在過去 5 年中，該行業的代工/邏輯晶圓開工率就增長了約 40%。在我們的財政年度結束時，該行業的整體晶圓廠利用率增加到過去十年的最高水平。我們認為代工/邏輯在行業組合中的比例繼續增長。五年前，代工/邏輯約佔 WFE 支出的 53%。截至 2021 年，它已增長到 WFE 的 60%，我們認為它在未來會更高。

Even with higher wafer capacity and high utilization, we have a global semiconductor shortage that's affecting a wide range of industries, including our own. Industry-wide, we are tracking 59 fab projects with available and announced expansion capacity of 3.5 million wafer starts. These projects represent potential equipment spending of around $300 billion in future years. All of this data leads me to believe that demand is likely to remain strong.

即使擁有更高的晶圓產能和高利用率，我們仍面臨全球半導體短缺問題，這正在影響包括我們自己在內的眾多行業。在整個行業範圍內，我們正在跟踪 59 個晶圓廠項目，這些晶圓廠項目可用並已宣布擴展產能為 350 萬片。這些項目代表了未來幾年約 3000 億美元的潛在設備支出。所有這些數據使我相信需求可能會保持強勁。

Now I'll give you more insights into our own supply situation. In Q4, our Semi Systems backlog was at record levels and growing quickly. In our guidance for Q4, we targeted modest Semi Systems revenue growth. We also widened our overall guidance range due to our concerns about the supply chain.

現在，我將為您提供有關我們自己的供應情況的更多見解。在第四季度，我們的半系統積壓達到創紀錄水平並迅速增長。在我們對第四季度的指導中，我們的目標是適度的 Semi Systems 收入增長。由於我們對供應鏈的擔憂，我們還擴大了整體指導範圍。

Toward the end of Q4, we experienced later-than-expected deliveries of the components we need to complete and ship our build plan by the end of the quarter. The reason for the delays is that our suppliers couldn't get enough parts from their own suppliers, which include chip makers and distributors. The supply issues are directly related to the semiconductor shortage, particularly in logic, power and analog ICs.

在第四季度末，我們的組件交付時間晚於預期，我們需要在本季度末完成並交付我們的構建計劃。延遲的原因是我們的供應商無法從他們自己的供應商那裡獲得足夠的零件，其中包括芯片製造商和分銷商。供應問題與半導體短缺直接相關，尤其是在邏輯、電源和模擬 IC 方面。

Not all of our semi businesses were affected in Q4. Our process control, CMP, etch and packaging businesses beat our revenue targets. Yet our overall Semi Systems revenue was $293 million below the midpoint of our expectation. The full semiconductor revenue impact of the shortages during the quarter was well above $300 million.

並非我們所有的半導體業務在第四季度都受到影響。我們的工藝控制、CMP、蝕刻和封裝業務超過了我們的收入目標。然而，我們的 Semi Systems 總收入比我們預期的中點低 2.93 億美元。本季度短缺對半導體收入的全部影響遠高於 3 億美元。

In Q1, we are guiding for sequential growth of around 3%. We have the internal capacity to easily ship several hundred million dollars more of semi equipment, but we are planning for only modest supply increases. Looking ahead, I believe WFE spending will be up again in calendar 2022 and will remain strong, particularly for foundry/logic, both at the leading edge and ICAPS notes. I also believe Applied's business will be higher in the first half of calendar 2022 than in the second half of calendar 2021, both in Semi Systems and AGS.

在第一季度，我們預計環比增長約為 3%。我們有能力輕鬆運送幾億美元以上的半設備，但我們計劃僅適度增加供應。展望未來，我相信 WFE 支出將在 2022 年再次上升，並將保持強勁，尤其是在晶圓代工/邏輯方面，無論是處於領先地位還是 ICAPS 票據。我還相信 Applied 在 2022 年上半年的業務將高於 2021 年下半年，無論是在 Semi Systems 還是 AGS。

Next, since it's the end of our fiscal year, it's a good time to assess the progress we're making towards our 2024 financial model. In April, we outlined targets to grow our revenue, profitability and earnings in a variety of WFE scenarios, including a base case of $85 billion and a high case of $100 billion. With everything we're seeing in the industry today, our high scenario of $100 billion is increasingly likely.

接下來，由於是我們財政年度的結束，現在是評估我們在 2024 年財務模型方面取得的進展的好時機。 4 月，我們概述了在各種 WFE 情景中增加收入、盈利能力和收益的目標，包括 850 億美元的基本情景和 1000 億美元的高情景。鑑於我們今天在行業中看到的一切，我們 1000 億美元的高情景的可能性越來越大。

One year into the long-term plan, we've made good progress, increasing revenue by 34%, non-GAAP gross margin by 240 basis points, non-GAAP operating margin by 540 basis points and non-GAAP EPS by 64%. We believe our Semi Systems group is well on track to its growth targets based on our strong product road maps and the deep customer engagements Gary described.

長期計劃進入一年後，我們取得了良好進展，收入增長了 34%，非 GAAP 毛利率提高了 240 個基點，非 GAAP 營業利潤率提高了 540 個基點，非 GAAP 每股收益增長了 64%。我們相信，基於我們強大的產品路線圖和 Gary 所描述的深入客戶參與，我們的 Semi Systems 集團正在朝著其增長目標邁進。

We believe AGS can exceed the growth implied in our model after growing by 21% this year alone. In fact, AGS had record backlog of over $4.33 billion at the end of the year. 72% of the Q4 backlog was subscription business with terms of 1 to 3 years, and 65% of new subscription bookings were multiyear.

我們相信，AGS 僅在今年就增長了 21%，就可以超過我們模型中隱含的增長。事實上，截至年底，AGS 的積壓訂單超過 43.3 億美元。 72% 的第四季度積壓訂單是 1 至 3 年期限的訂閱業務，65% 的新訂閱預訂是多年期。

While our focus is on recurring revenue, AGS also includes our 200-millimeter equipment business. Our 200-millimeter business has been growing along with the rest of the ICAPS market, approaching $650 million in WFE revenue in calendar 2021.

雖然我們的重點是經常性收入，但 AGS 還包括我們的 200 毫米設備業務。我們的 200 毫米業務一直與 ICAPS 市場的其他部分一起增長，到 2021 年的 WFE 收入接近 6.5 億美元。

Turning to our profitability metrics. We expect to achieve our non-GAAP gross margin target of 48.5% once the near-term material and logistics cost headwinds subside. We also feel confident in our non-GAAP operating margin targets. The Semi Systems group increased its operating margin by 590 basis points this year, while AGS delivered record operating margin of 31% in Q4. A major focus for us is increasing the display group's margin to between 25% and 30%. And we plan to be in that range by the second half of 2022.

轉向我們的盈利能力指標。一旦近期材料和物流成本逆風消退，我們預計將實現 48.5% 的非美國通用會計準則毛利率目標。我們也對我們的非公認會計原則營業利潤率目標充滿信心。 Semi Systems 集團今年的營業利潤率提高了 590 個基點，而 AGS 在第四季度實現了創紀錄的 31% 的營業利潤率。我們的一個主要關注點是將顯示組的利潤率提高到 25% 到 30% 之間。我們計劃到 2022 年下半年達到這個範圍。

Another of our targets is to return 80% to 100% of free cash flow to shareholders. In fiscal 2021, we generated a record $4.77 billion in free cash flow, and we returned 96% mainly through stock buybacks. We ended the year with over $5 billion remaining in buyback authorization. And given the strong demand outlook and our view of the intrinsic value of the company, we expect to continue to be aggressive with the program.

我們的另一個目標是將 80% 至 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東。在 2021 財年，我們產生了創紀錄的 47.7 億美元的自由現金流，我們主要通過股票回購實現了 96% 的回報。我們在年底的回購授權中剩餘超過 50 億美元。鑑於強勁的需求前景和我們對公司內在價值的看法，我們預計將繼續積極推進該計劃。

Now I'll share our Q1 business outlook. Given the supply chain challenges, we expect to modestly increase revenue to $6.16 billion, plus or minus $250 million, or up around 19% year-on-year. We expect non-GAAP EPS to be around $1.85, plus or minus $0.07, or up around 33% year-on-year.

現在我將分享我們的第一季度業務展望。鑑於供應鏈挑戰，我們預計收入將適度增加至 61.6 億美元，上下浮動 2.5 億美元，或同比增長約 19%。我們預計非美國通用會計準則每股收益約為 1.85 美元，上下浮動 0.07 美元，或同比增長約 33%。

Within this outlook, we expect Semi Systems revenue of around $4.46 billion, up 25% year-over-year. We project AGS revenue of around $1.33 billion, up 15% year-over-year. We expect Display revenue to be around $350 million in Q1 and higher as we progress through the year. Applied's non-GAAP gross margin should decline to around 47.4%, primarily due to higher near-term cost headwinds. We plan to increase non-GAAP OpEx to $970 million, which is around 15.8% of revenue, below our long-term model target of 16%. Our guidance also assumes a 12% non-GAAP tax rate.

在此展望中，我們預計 Semi Systems 的收入約為 44.6 億美元，同比增長 25%。我們預計 AGS 收入約為 13.3 億美元，同比增長 15%。我們預計第一季度的顯示收入將在 3.5 億美元左右，隨著我們全年的進展，收入將更高。 Applied 的非 GAAP 毛利率應下降至 47.4% 左右，主要是由於近期成本逆風較高。我們計劃將非 GAAP 運營支出增加到 9.7 億美元，約佔收入的 15.8%，低於我們 16% 的長期模型目標。我們的指導還假設非 GAAP 稅率為 12%。

Finally, along with Gary, I'd like to thank all of our teams and partners for their hard work in a challenging environment. Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

最後，我要與 Gary 一起感謝我們所有的團隊和合作夥伴，感謝他們在充滿挑戰的環境中辛勤工作。現在邁克，讓我們開始問答吧。

Thanks, Bob. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，鮑勃。 （操作員說明）操作員，讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 C.J. Muse with Evercore。

Welcome back, Bob. I'm sure you're happy to be back from the golf course. So I guess a couple of part question on supply constraints. You talked about not being fully resolved in January. Do you expect it to be resolved in April? And how are customers reacting to the shortages? Are they waiting on a full suite of tools? Or are they taking whatever tools they can get? And then, I guess, lastly, considering the backlog that you highlighted and also that longest lead time ASML is essentially sold out for all of 2022, it certainly looks like your visibility extends now into 2023. Can you speak to that?

歡迎回來，鮑勃。我相信你很高興從高爾夫球場回來。所以我猜想關於供應限制的幾個部分問題。你談到了一月份沒有完全解決。你認為它會在四月得到解決嗎？客戶對短缺有何反應？他們是否在等待一整套工具？還是他們正在使用他們能得到的任何工具？然後，我想，最後，考慮到您強調的積壓工作以及最長的交貨時間 ASML 基本上在 2022 年全年都已售罄，看來您的知名度現在已經延伸到 2023 年。您能談談嗎？

Sure. Thanks for welcoming me back. A few things. One, supply chain; two, overall demand environment; and three, visibility, I guess. The first one, supply chain, we actually did pretty well managing this through about 11 months of the year and a week, and then it got a little worse at the end of the quarter. And that was our issue. So now we're all over this thing.

當然。謝謝你歡迎我回來。一些東西。一、供應鏈；二、整體需求環境；第三，知名度，我猜。第一個，供應鏈，我們在一年中的大約 11 個月和一周的時間裡實際上做得很好，然後在本季度末變得更糟。這就是我們的問題。所以現在我們已經解決了這個問題。

In the short term, managing the next quarters is about prioritization, project management and execution. So we have set up a cadence that every week, I'm going through all the detailed performance by week of how we're doing on receipts, shipments, shortages, individual supplier names. And Gary is going through it almost every day, okay? So we are escalating this thing.

在短期內，管理下一個季度是關於優先級、項目管理和執行。所以我們制定了一個節奏，每週，我都會逐週查看我們在收貨、發貨、短缺、個別供應商名稱方面的所有詳細表現。加里幾乎每天都在經歷它，好嗎？所以我們正在升級這件事。

So then you say, why do we think we're going to do better in Q1? So if you look at some of the public companies you know, they're up 3% to 5% on average, some of our suppliers. We believe that our allocation will be somewhat better than that. We also believe that we have internally allocated that effectively, and we are working with our suppliers' suppliers, who are our customers, to free up more demand.

那麼你說，為什麼我們認為我們會在第一季度做得更好？所以如果你看看你認識的一些上市公司，他們平均上漲了 3% 到 5%，我們的一些供應商。我們相信我們的分配會比這好一些。我們還相信，我們已經在內部有效地分配了這一點，我們正在與作為我們客戶的供應商的供應商合作，以釋放更多需求。

Secondly, if you look at the early data, in the first 2 weeks of the quarter, receipts were up about 15% from the previous quarter. So I think we're going to be okay. If you look at the stuff that caused these problems, there's miscellaneous problems all over the place, but most of those are manageable. What hit us hard was this thousands, theoretically, of electronic components that our suppliers use in our products to us. There are about 100 that we're closely monitoring last quarter and 10 that gave us problems at the end of the quarter. These are particularly around PLCs. We are monitoring the top 10 suppliers of our products, and we are monitoring those 100, plus 200 other components. We want to make sure nothing goes bad.

其次，如果您查看早期數據，在本季度的前兩週，收入比上一季度增長了約 15%。所以我認為我們會沒事的。如果您查看導致這些問題的原因，就會發現到處都有各種各樣的問題，但其中大多數是可控的。理論上，我們的供應商在我們的產品中使用了數千個電子元件，這對我們造成了沉重打擊。上個季度我們正在密切關注大約 100 個，而在本季度末有 10 個給我們帶來了問題。這些尤其是在 PLC 周圍。我們正在監控我們產品的前 10 名供應商，我們正在監控這 100 家以及 200 個其他組件。我們要確保沒有任何問題發生。

So I feel pretty good that, number one, the demand is really good. The backlog is there. The orders are up every quarter. It looks strong next year. It doesn't feel or looks strong next year. I think supply chain is going to get better incrementally every quarter through the year.

所以我覺得很好，第一，需求真的很好。積壓在那裡。每個季度的訂單都在增加。明年看起來很強勁。明年感覺或看起來都不強。我認為供應鏈將在一年中的每個季度逐步改善。

In terms of -- visibility is great. In terms of a full suite of tools, we are -- customers are taking all the tools we can ship. And we're largely keeping them happy, but we want to not get the backlog too big. But I think we're going to make progress throughout the year.

就--可見性而言，它很棒。就全套工具而言，我們是——客戶正在使用我們可以提供的所有工具。我們在很大程度上讓他們滿意，但我們不希望積壓太多。但我認為我們將在全年取得進展。

C.J., this is Gary. I'll add a little bit more. I've met with all the CEOs of our top customers, leading technologies and ICAPS here in the last quarter. And what I would say, certainly, the supply situation is challenging, but really no change in terms of the customer demand for the products. And some of the tools that, again, as Bob said, it's not a broad-based issue. Some of these tools are the ones that are most enabling from Applied. And again, those -- nothing has changed relative to that demand.

C.J.，這是加里。我再補充一點。上個季度，我在這裡會見了我們頂級客戶、領先技術和 ICAPS 的所有 CEO。我要說的是，供應形勢確實充滿挑戰，但就客戶對產品的需求而言，確實沒有變化。還有一些工具，正如 Bob 所說，這不是一個廣泛的問題。其中一些工具是 Applied 最支持的工具。再一次，那些 - 相對於這種需求沒有任何改變。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰·皮策。

Bob, welcome back as well. It's great working with you again. My guess is you're going to get multiples of C.J.'s questions on the supply side. But I'm just kind of curious, Bob, to follow up, as the supply chain gets better, do you think by the April quarter, there's a big step function pickup to the $500 million, plus or minus, that you can't ship in sort of October and January? Or will it be a little bit more linear than that as supply comes online?

鮑勃，也歡迎回來。很高興再次與您合作。我猜你會在供應方面收到 C.J. 的多個問題。但我只是有點好奇，鮑勃，隨著供應鏈變得更好，你認為到 4 月季度，5 億美元（正負）有一個很大的階梯函數回升，你不能在 10 月和 1 月發貨？還是會比供應上線時更線性一些？

And then to your point earlier, Bob, about the backlog, just how do you safeguard against sort of a frothy backlog in this kind of environment? There are impressive numbers. But typically, when customers can't get what they want, they tend to order more than they need. So how are you safeguarding against that?

然後就你之前的觀點，Bob，關於積壓，在這種環境下，你如何防止出現泡沫積壓？有令人印象深刻的數字。但通常，當客戶無法得到他們想要的東西時，他們往往會訂購比他們需要的更多的東西。那麼你如何防範呢？

So in terms of rate of recovery and confidence in the backlog and kind of the double booking question, I think, is the question. So in terms of rate of recovery, what we're modeling from discussions with suppliers and our suppliers' suppliers and our internal analysis, which we're doing the best we can to model this, and we believe it's accurate, we think Q1, the rate recovery, if you look at it, our Semi business is up a little over 3% equipment. And that's about what the industry is quarter-on-quarter. Our AGS business is a little bit lower because it's 14 weeks last year in Q1 as the Chinese holiday falls into Q1 this year. But if you look at rate of recovery, we think it goes up a little over 3% in Q1. We think the equipment business picks up a couple of points more every quarter and builds more momentum later in the year.

因此，就恢復率和對積壓的信心以及雙重預訂問題的種類而言，我認為是個問題。因此，就恢復率而言，我們通過與供應商和供應商的供應商的討論以及我們的內部分析來建模，我們正在盡最大努力對此建模，我們認為它是準確的，我們認為第一季度，費率恢復，如果你看一下，我們的 Semi 業務增長了 3% 以上的設備。這就是該行業的季度環比情況。我們的 AGS 業務稍微低一些，因為去年第一季度是 14 週，因為今年中國假期進入第一季度。但如果你看一下復甦率，我們認為它在第一季度上漲了 3% 以上。我們認為設備業務每個季度都會增加幾個點，並在今年晚些時候建立更多的動力。

Now as we get more visibility, next quarter, I'll be more confident in those numbers. But that's the kind of acceleration we're picking up in shipments. We hope to do better. We might do better, but that's what we're modeling.

現在，隨著我們獲得更多知名度，下個季度，我將對這些數字更有信心。但這就是我們正在加快出貨量的那種。我們希望做得更好。我們可能會做得更好，但這就是我們正在建模的內容。

[Double booking].

【雙訂】。

Oh, [double booking]. I don't think that's a problem right now, double booking, John. If you look at breakout between memory and the foundry/logic, foundry/logic was 60% this year of the business. We actually think it's up next year. If you look at public statements from TSMC, Intel, another big foundry/logic manufacturers, they're talking about multiyear commitments to WFE spending and very strong businesses on their side. We look within the mix that foundry/logic increases as a percentage of the mix next year. We look at memory as being slightly up, a little bit more on NAND, a little bit down on DRAM. So we think that's muted and reasonable. And we don't see double booking then. We see China down a little bit next year. So I don't see the double booking thing right now.

哦，[雙重預訂]。我不認為這是一個問題，雙重預訂，約翰。如果你看看內存和代工/邏輯之間的突破，代工/邏輯是今年業務的 60%。我們實際上認為它明年會上漲。如果您查看台積電、英特爾和另一家大型晶圓代工/邏輯製造商的公開聲明，他們談論的是對 WFE 支出的多年承諾和非常強大的業務。我們認為，明年晶圓代工/邏輯在組合中所佔的比例會增加。我們認為內存略微上升，在 NAND 上稍微增加一點，在 DRAM 上稍微下降一點。所以我們認為這是溫和而合理的。那時我們不會看到重複預訂。我們看到中國明年會有所下降。所以我現在看不到重複預訂的事情。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the impact of the constraints on the services business. Because it's not just services, there is hardware and everything else. Is services actually being impacted by constraints? Would services be strong without them? And how do you think -- how do you see services -- the evolution of services going forward into next year as the -- you work to resolve the constraint issues?

我想知道您能否談談限制對服務業務的影響。因為它不僅僅是服務，還有硬件和其他一切。服務是否真的受到約束的影響？沒有它們，服務會變得強大嗎？你如何看待——你如何看待服務——服務的發展到明年——你努力解決約束問題？

Yes. Our services business is doing great. This year, we're up 21%. We're ahead of plan to hit the 2024 model. I think we might have said on the call even that we need a compound rate of growth of 7% a year to hit that model. We think we'll exceed that, probably do double digits this year growth in service.

是的。我們的服務業務做得很好。今年，我們上漲了 21%。我們提前計劃推出 2024 年車型。我想我們可能會在電話會議上說，即使我們需要每年 7% 的複合增長率來達到這個模型。我們認為我們會超過這個數字，今年服務可能會實現兩位數的增長。

If you look at our service business, it's multiple components. It's a 200-millimeter tool business. There is a contract services where you sign up for services 1 to 3 years, including different types of service arrangements. And then it's kind of time and material stuff.

如果你看看我們的服務業務，它是由多個組成部分組成的。這是一個 200 毫米的工具業務。有一項合同服務，您可以在其中註冊 1 至 3 年的服務，包括不同類型的服務安排。然後是時間和物質的東西。

If you look at the service business, we think it's going to grow strongly this year in double -- strong double digits. And in fact, our customers are thanking our service guys for getting them on to parts service contracts in the past year or 2 because our customers are in good shape in terms of support and parts. So I think that the parts issues, supply chain issues are not really impacting our service business.

如果你看一下服務業務，我們認為它今年將以兩位數強勁增長。事實上，我們的客戶感謝我們的服務人員在過去一兩年裡讓他們簽訂了零件服務合同，因為我們的客戶在支持和零件方面狀況良好。所以我認為零件問題、供應鏈問題並沒有真正影響我們的服務業務。

The other thing, which we'll point out, and Gary might give you more detail, if you look at the parts of the constraint, things like PLCs and stuff, which are components -- in components, those are not the parts that are high replacement service parts in the service supply chain. So I think we're in pretty good shape on the service business, and it's a great business for us.

另一件事，我們將指出，Gary 可能會給你更多細節，如果你看一下約束的部分，比如 PLC 和其他東西，它們是組件——在組件中，那些不是服務供應鏈中的高更換服務部件。所以我認為我們在服務業務方面的狀況非常好，這對我們來說是一項很棒的業務。

And Bob, how would you guide services in fiscal '22 as a percent? Low double digit?

Bob，您將如何指導 22 財年的服務百分比？低兩位數？

Yes, I think it's low double digits growth.

是的，我認為這是兩位數的低增長。

Your next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Just a clarification. What do you expect Display to do overall in this fiscal '22? And then my question is, this year, we have seen your foundry customers raise their prices. Fabless customers, IDM, they are raising their prices. What about the equipment side? How much pricing power do you guys have, right, that can help mitigate some of these supply chain issues? Because you did mention kind of a hit on your gross margin. So as you start to see some of the supply situation recover, should we expect this combination of pricing and the supply side help you to cover gross margins quickly? Or will the gross margin recovery take time?

只是一個澄清。您希望 Display 在 22 財年總體上做些什麼？然後我的問題是，今年，我們看到你們的代工客戶提高了價格。無晶圓廠客戶，IDM，他們正在提高價格。裝備方面呢？你們有多少定價權，對，可以幫助緩解這些供應鏈問題？因為您確實提到了對您的毛利率的影響。因此，當您開始看到一些供應情況有所恢復時，我們是否應該期望這種定價和供應方的結合可以幫助您快速彌補毛利率？還是毛利率的恢復需要時間？

Vivek, this is Gary. Thanks for the question. There's 2 parts to this. I'll take the first part, and then Bob can take the second part. Relative to Display, we've talked about that many times, really good adjacent market where we can take our semi deposition and e-beam technologies into a market with larger substrates.

維維克，這是加里。謝謝你的問題。這有 2 個部分。我將參加第一部分，然後 Bob 可以參加第二部分。相對於顯示器，我們已經多次討論過非常好的相鄰市場，我們可以將我們的半沉積和電子束技術帶入更大基板的市場。

For '21, as expected, we're on track for a little over $1.6 billion in revenue and maintaining strong share of our served market. We think '22 is a little higher than '21, more second half versus first half. And as Bob also discussed in the prepared remarks, we're on track to achieve our target for higher profit and free cash flow in the 25% to 30% range exiting 2022.

正如預期的那樣，對於 21 年，我們的收入有望超過 16 億美元，並在我們服務的市場中保持強勁的份額。我們認為 22 年比 21 年略高，下半年比上半年多。正如鮑勃在準備好的評論中所討論的那樣，我們有望在 2022 年實現 25% 至 30% 範圍內的更高利潤和自由現金流的目標。

And then Bob, you have the second part.

然後鮑勃，你有第二部分。

In terms of -- your second question is kind of a broader gross margin question. So if you look at gross margins this past year, we're up 2.4 points, which is great performance. We're on track to hit the model, which is, I think, about 48.5% in the out years. We're a little soft right now in Q1, and that's all supply chain stuff. As we go out through the year, we expect gross margins to rise up again as we get the supply chain issues behind us.

就 - 你的第二個問題是一個更廣泛的毛利率問題。因此，如果你看看過去一年的毛利率，我們上升了 2.4 個百分點，這是一個很好的表現。我們有望達到這個模型，我認為，在接下來的幾年裡，這一比例約為 48.5%。我們現在在第一季度有點疲軟，這就是供應鏈的全部內容。隨著我們度過這一年，我們預計隨著供應鏈問題的解決，毛利率將再次上升。

In terms of the things that impact gross margin, we did a lot of good things in 2021. We had very good cost reduction. We had high-value products and services. We sold to the customers, and we recognize that value back from the customers. And then we have pretty good volume and mix, which helped, too.

就影響毛利率的事情而言，我們在 2021 年做了很多好事。我們的成本降低得非常好。我們擁有高價值的產品和服務。我們賣給客戶，我們從客戶那裡認識到這種價值。然後我們有很好的音量和混音，這也有幫助。

If you look at prospectively, the cost reduction is a little slower. We will continue to realize high value with the customers. We share that value, and we think that's going to help our margins. And if the cost continue, we may even have that discussion at some point.

如果你前瞻性地看，降低成本的速度會慢一些。我們將繼續與客戶一起實現高價值。我們分享這個價值，我們認為這將有助於我們的利潤。如果成本繼續下去，我們甚至可能會在某個時候進行討論。

Yes. So margin's kind of flattish in the first half and then maybe a little better in the second half if we keep the supply chain.

是的。因此，如果我們保持供應鏈，上半年利潤率會持平，下半年可能會好一些。

Yes, I think so. And I think the year is a little better than this share overall by the time we're done.

是的，我想是這樣。而且我認為到我們完成時，這一年總體上比這個份額要好一些。

Okay. Any comments on pricing? I think Vivek was kind of...

好的。對定價有何評論？我覺得維維克有點……

Yes, we look to share value with customers, and I think that's worked for both of us.

是的，我們希望與客戶分享價值，我認為這對我們雙方都有效。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Bob, welcome back. Gary, in your prepared remarks, you talked about localization of semiconductor capacity going forward. Obviously, there's a lot of talks in the United States and Europe, in Asia as well, more recently, Japan. How are you thinking about the potential impact from all these projects? I think from a timing perspective, most of us are thinking 2023 or even later. But based on what you know, all the discussions you're having, how are you thinking about that? And sort of related to that, how should we think about the competitive threat from the local Chinese semi-cap companies? I know they've been around for a very long time. And up until this point, there remains a very significant gap between incumbents like yourselves and them. But how concerned should we be as we think about your business over the next 3 to 5 years?

鮑勃，歡迎回來。 Gary，在你準備好的發言中，你談到了半導體產能的本地化。顯然，在美國和歐洲、亞洲以及最近的日本都有很多會談。您如何看待所有這些項目的潛在影響？我認為從時間的角度來看，我們大多數人都在考慮 2023 年甚至更晚。但根據你所知道的，你正在進行的所有討論，你是怎麼想的？與此相關的是，我們應該如何看待來自中國本土半盤股公司的競爭威脅？我知道他們已經存在了很長時間。到目前為止，像你們這樣的現任者和他們之間仍然存在很大的差距。但是，當我們考慮您未來 3 到 5 年的業務時，我們應該有多擔心？

Yes. Thanks for the questions, Toshiya. Relative to localization of supply chains and things like the CHIPS Act, that's obviously good for our business. We're in discussions. As I mentioned earlier, I've met with all of the top CEOs here in the last quarter. And that's -- as they move to these other new locations, that creates an opportunity for us to support them, especially with our services business. So we're in very close cooperation with those customers as they move forward with those plans. And there's opportunities.

是的。謝謝你的問題，Toshiya。相對於供應鏈的本地化和諸如 CHIPS 法案之類的事情，這顯然對我們的業務有利。我們正在討論中。正如我之前提到的，我在上個季度會見了這裡的所有頂級 CEO。這就是 - 當他們搬到這些其他新地點時，這為我們創造了支持他們的機會，特別是在我們的服務業務方面。因此，在這些客戶推進這些計劃的過程中，我們與他們進行了非常密切的合作。還有機會。

I think for them, they're also concerned about cost and cultural differences and all of those things. And so that creates a tremendous opportunity, not just for our traditional services, but opportunities like AI(x), Applied Actionable Insight Acceleration, where I think they're also extremely focused on how to accelerate R&D ramp and optimize high-volume manufacturing in new locations. So I think that really creates a tremendous opportunity for us.

我認為對他們來說，他們也關心成本和文化差異以及所有這些事情。因此，這創造了一個巨大的機會，不僅是為我們的傳統服務，還有像 AI(x)、Applied Actionable Insight Acceleration 這樣的機會，我認為他們也非常關注如何加速研發斜坡和優化大批量製造新地點。所以我認為這確實為我們創造了巨大的機會。

The other part of the CHIPS Act is really how every government runs faster in innovation and commercialization. And we're also in deep discussions with a number of leading technology companies. And that will also create an opportunity, I believe, for Applied.

CHIPS 法案的另一部分實際上是每個政府如何在創新和商業化方面運行得更快。我們還在與一些領先的技術公司進行深入討論。我相信，這也將為 Applied 創造機會。

Relative to the China equipment suppliers, really, if you look at what every single customer is focused on, it's providing power, performance and costs ahead of others. We talk about PPACt, and the T is incredibly important. And whether it's -- we talk about low-resistance wiring, which is probably one of the biggest issues in the industry where we have tremendous strength, or gate all around transistors or the scaling in memory or packaging, that is incredibly complex and difficult. And the companies that are ahead on power, performance and cost capture really the majority of the market. So I really believe that Applied is even in a stronger position going forward than we've been in the past relative to local competition.

相對於中國的設備供應商，真的，如果你看看每個客戶都關注什麼，它在提供電力、性能和成本方面領先於其他供應商。我們談論 PPACt，而 T 非常重要。無論是 - 我們談論低電阻佈線，這可能是我們擁有巨大實力的行業中最大的問題之一，或者晶體管周圍的柵極或存儲器或封裝的縮放，這非常複雜和困難。而在功率、性能和成本方面領先的公司確實佔據了大部分市場。所以我真的相信，相對於本地競爭，應用材料公司在未來的地位甚至比我們過去更強大。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

Bob, welcome back. I just wanted to check on the fact that some of these constraints are pushing out revenues into next year, and it looks like maybe in the first half of next year, the WFE run rate could hit $100 billion. So I just wanted to figure out from your vantage point, how do you think about that? And you also mentioned that you're trending towards our target model, but obviously, the margins are impacted because of constraints. And the target model at $10 in EPS and $100 billion in WFE. How much discount should we give to that $10 in this constrained environment?

鮑勃，歡迎回來。我只是想檢查一下，其中一些限制因素正在將收入推到明年，看起來明年上半年，WFE 的運行率可能會達到 1000 億美元。所以我只是想從你的角度弄清楚，你怎麼看？您還提到您正朝著我們的目標模型發展，但顯然，由於限制，利潤率受到影響。目標模型的每股收益為 10 美元，WFE 為 1000 億美元。在這個受限的環境中，我們應該給這 10 美元多少折扣？

Well, we think WFE is up next year. I think we probably said in the script it could be up -- I think at this time, we don't want to be too specific. We're talking to kind of 10% up next year. And I'd say pretty confident in that, frankly.

好吧，我們認為 WFE 明年會上漲。我想我們可能在腳本中說過它可能會上升——我認為此時，我們不想太具體。我們正在談論明年上漲 10%。坦率地說，我對此非常有信心。

If you look at the run rate in the first half, the visibility is a little better in the first half. And we have very strong orders and booking potential in the first half. We actually think the second half is going to get a little stronger even on bookings than what we have today, frankly. Everything we've talked to customers is bullish, particularly in the foundry/logic area.

如果看上半場的跑動率，上半場的能見度要好一些。我們在上半年有非常強勁的訂單和預訂潛力。坦率地說，我們實際上認為，即使在預訂方面，下半場也會比我們今天所擁有的要強一些。我們與客戶交談的一切都是看漲的，尤其是在代工/邏輯領域。

If you go look at the model, it's -- $100 billion, I think that's a real number nowadays. I don't know that it's a real number next year at this point. I think we achieved that $100 billion. We'll hit the model, and it was the model $10. I think we'll do it.

如果你看一下模型，它是——1000 億美元，我認為這是現在的真實數字。在這一點上，我不知道明年這是一個真實的數字。我認為我們實現了 1000 億美元。我們會打模型，它是 10 美元的模型。我想我們會做到的。

Yes. Maybe I can add, Krish, one more thing relative to 2022 and then going forward, backlog for us is very strong. Again, I've met with all of these leading customers, foundry/logic, memory, ICAPS. And as Bob mentioned earlier, if you look at what they're publicly talking about in terms of their investments over multiple years, it's very, very strong. And some of this, obviously, I can't share publicly, but I have very high confidence that the business is going to remain strong through '22. And right now, '23 also looks good for us. And certainly, again, if you just look at all the public statements from those customers, again, they're not planning on a short cycle. They're planning to be ready with capacity to capture the opportunities.

是的。也許我可以補充一點，Krish，與 2022 年相關的另一件事，然後繼續前進，我們的積壓工作非常強大。再次，我遇到了所有這些領先的客戶，鑄造/邏輯，內存，ICAPS。正如鮑勃之前提到的，如果你看看他們公開談論的多年來的投資，它非常非常強大。其中一些，顯然，我不能公開分享，但我非常有信心該業務將在 22 年保持強勁。現在，'23 對我們來說也很好。當然，再一次，如果你只看這些客戶的所有公開聲明，再一次，他們並沒有計劃短週期。他們計劃準備好抓住機會。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

And Bob, welcome back. So I guess I have a question on WFE share. Gary, you talked about that a lot. And optically, your share this year is flat in the 20.2% to 20.3% range. But obviously, that's not representative because you would have done $300 million more in October. So I'm kind of wondering if you can adjust January for us. So what would January have been in terms of SSG if you had the supply? Would you have -- would that $4.45 billion guidance would have been, say, $300 million higher? I'm just trying to adjust your share higher because obviously, this year, you gained a lot of share on an adjusted basis.

鮑勃，歡迎回來。所以我想我對 WFE 份額有疑問。加里，你談了很多。從光學上看，你今年的份額持平在 20.2% 到 20.3% 的範圍內。但顯然，這並不具有代表性，因為你在 10 月份會多賺 3 億美元。所以我有點想知道你是否可以為我們調整一月份。那麼，如果你有供應，一月份的 SSG 會是多少？你會 - 44.5億美元的指導會比說，高出3億美元嗎？我只是想把你的份額調整得更高，因為很明顯，今年你在調整後的基礎上獲得了很多份額。

Yes. Tim, thanks for the question. Certainly, Q1 would have been significantly higher. I think Bob gave some color on that. But certainly, demand is far higher than supply. When you take us -- and outperformed in '19. We outperformed in '20. We're definitely -- we're on track to outperform in '21. We also feel very good about '22 and going forward. But I don't know if I want to be more specific other than what the color that we've already given on the call, but definitely would have been significantly higher in Q1 and then going into 2022.

是的。蒂姆，謝謝你的問題。當然，第一季度會明顯更高。我認為鮑勃對此有所了解。但可以肯定的是，需求遠高於供應。當您選擇我們時——並在 19 年表現出色。我們在 20 年表現出色。我們肯定——我們有望在 21 年表現出色。我們也對 22 年和未來感到非常滿意。但我不知道除了我們在電話會議上已經給出的顏色之外，我是否想更具體一些，但肯定會在第一季度明顯更高，然後進入 2022 年。

In terms of the different parts of our business, we've talked about wiring resistance in foundry/logic really is the biggest challenge for our customers. As they shrink these features, resistance goes up. And we gave some color on copper barrier seed tool with 7 different technologies that is worth billions of dollars. And what I said in the prepared remarks is that we have 5 of these innovations that we're delivering to customers, and we haven't quantified all of them, but it's very sizable in areas where Applied is really unique in enabling the solutions to wiring resistance. In the one case, we've talked about 50% improvement in resistance.

就我們業務的不同部分而言，我們已經談到代工/邏輯中的佈線電阻確實是我們客戶面臨的最大挑戰。當它們縮小這些特徵時，阻力就會上升。我們用 7 種不同的技術為價值數十億美元的銅屏障種子工具增添了一些色彩。我在準備好的評論中說的是，我們有 5 項創新正在交付給客戶，我們還沒有量化所有這些創新，但在應用材料公司在使解決方案能夠真正獨特的領域接線電阻。在一種情況下，我們談到了阻力提高了 50%。

And then you look at gate-all-around, again, we feel very good about our position in the transistor to gain share. That's $1 billion opportunity. And relative to our FinFET position, we believe we're positioned to gain share as that goes forward. Certainly, in foundry/logic, our etch share is increasing. Our EUV etch share is increasing. Our PDC share, we've talked about our business being up more than 60% overall. And just, again, really very, very strong position with integrated solutions. I gave some color on co-optimization and gave an example in the memory market where, again, we have a big opportunity. So Tim, I feel really good about our position going forward.

然後你再看看門極，我們對我們在晶體管中的地位感到非常滿意，以獲得份額。這是 10 億美元的機會。相對於我們的 FinFET 地位，我們相信我們有能力在未來獲得份額。當然，在代工/邏輯領域，我們的蝕刻份額正在增加。我們的 EUV 蝕刻份額正在增加。我們的 PDC 份額，我們談到我們的業務總體增長超過 60%。再一次，在集成解決方案方面非常非常強大。我對協同優化給出了一些看法，並舉了一個內存市場的例子，在這個市場上，我們有一個很大的機會。所以蒂姆，我對我們未來的位置感覺非常好。

Yes. And Tim, I add one more thing for you. So I know in the past, instead of waiting for Gartner group to come out with market share, what you always did is you took our fiscal Q2 through fiscal Q1 as a proxy for our revenue. And what's interesting is what we did back in February, we kind of disclosed in our conference call. And then in April, I wrote everybody that we've made a similar adjustment ourselves. So what we're now doing is our calendar year revenue for VLSI share purposes, it's now based on our financial reporting in fiscal Q2 through fiscal Q1. And one benefit of that change is that as soon as we guide Q1, which we just did today, now you can forecast our WFE revenue for share purposes, and you can make an apples-to-apples with the peer group.

是的。還有蒂姆，我再為你補充一件事。因此，我知道過去，您不是等待 Gartner 集團拿出市場份額，而是將我們的第二財季至第一財季作為我們收入的代表。有趣的是我們在 2 月份所做的事情，我們在電話會議中透露了這一點。然後在四月，我寫信給大家說我們自己也做了類似的調整。因此，我們現在正在做的是用於 VLSI 共享目的的日曆年收入，它現在基於我們在第二財季至第一財季的財務報告。這種變化的一個好處是，一旦我們指導了我們今天剛剛做的第一季度，現在您可以預測我們的 WFE 收入以用於共享目的，並且您可以與同行組進行蘋果對蘋果的競爭。

And then I just wanted to call your attention to one other number in the script today. Bob sized our AGS 200-millimeter revenue at around $650 million for the calendar year. So now you have all of the numbers that you need to make a share assumption. So I just wanted to give you that background. And we look forward, Bob and I, to seeing the investors at your conference.

然後我只是想提請您注意今天腳本中的另一個數字。 Bob 估計我們 AGS 200 毫米在日曆年的收入約為 6.5 億美元。因此，現在您擁有了進行份額假設所需的所有數字。所以我只是想給你這個背景。我們期待著，鮑勃和我，在你的會議上見到投資者。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Bob, welcome back to the team. On the chip shortages, you talked about some of the areas, which have not been impacted as much, process control, CMP, etch, packaging systems, but that leaves things like deposition implant, thermal processes and many other areas. And I'm sure even within that, it's different for different systems architectures like leading edge versus ICAPS. So I'm trying to figure out what's the implication of -- which of your end markets are getting more impacted given that there are different etch deposition, pattern intensities -- patterning intensities and system configurations? Is foundry and logic getting more impacted? Is it memory that's getting more impacted? Is it ICAPS? Or is it across all of your customer segments? And also is your Display business being impacted as well?

鮑勃，歡迎回到團隊。關於芯片短缺，您談到了一些沒有受到太大影響的領域，如工藝控制、CMP、蝕刻、封裝系統，但剩下的就是沉積注入、熱處理和許多其他領域。而且我敢肯定，即使在其中，對於不同的系統架構（例如前沿與 ICAPS）來說也是不同的。所以我試圖弄清楚這意味著什麼——鑑於存在不同的蝕刻沉積、圖案強度——圖案強度和系統配置，你的哪些終端市場受到的影響更大？代工和邏輯受到的影響更大嗎？是內存受到的影響更大嗎？是ICAPS嗎？還是在您的所有客戶群中？您的展示業務是否也受到影響？

So Harlan, this is Gary. First off, I would say that Display is not being impacted. Relative to the different device types, I don't know that I would separate one versus the other relative to the impact. Just as an example, in the foundry/logic business, ICAPS in Varian, our business in ICAPS, our share is up significantly in our implant market, and our revenue is up 4x over the last 2 years. So again, I think that when you look across the different products, there are specific components. It's not broad-based. But again, I wouldn't necessarily say that it's one market or another when you look at the impact.

哈倫，這是加里。首先，我想說的是 Display 沒有受到影響。相對於不同的設備類型，我不知道我會根據影響將一種與另一種分開。舉個例子，在代工/邏輯業務、瓦里安的 ICAPS、我們在 ICAPS 的業務中，我們在植入物市場的份額顯著上升，我們的收入在過去 2 年增長了 4 倍。再說一次，我認為當您查看不同的產品時，會有特定的組件。它的基礎並不廣泛。但是，當您查看影響時，我不一定會說這是一個市場或另一個市場。

Our next question comes from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I wanted to double-click on your expectations for first half calendar 2022 being above second half '21. Does that apply to memory as well? Or should we think about that growth being mostly foundry/logic-driven and maybe memory is more second half-weighted?

我想雙擊您對 2022 年上半年高於 21 年下半年的期望。這也適用於內存嗎？還是我們應該考慮一下這種增長主要是由代工廠/邏輯驅動的，而內存可能更多地是下半年加權？

Yes. So if you look at our 2021 data in terms of memory versus logic, we were a little stronger in the first half on memory. And then if you look at -- I'm going to look at the actual data. So our foundry was a little stronger in the second half, and our memory NAND was a little strong in the first half, DRAM a little strong in the second half, actually.

是的。因此，如果您從內存與邏輯的角度來看我們 2021 年的數據，我們在上半年的內存方面要強一些。然後，如果您查看 - 我將查看實際數據。所以下半年我們的代工稍微強一點，我們的內存NAND在上半年有點強，DRAM在下半年有點強，實際上。

If you look at next year, we think the year is kind of flattish. We think it's probably a little more second half weighted in memory next year. I think foundry is pretty strong throughout the year, but I don't think there's a big delta.

如果你看看明年，我們認為這一年有點平淡。我們認為明年下半年的內存可能會更多一些。我認為代工全年都很強大，但我認為不會有很大的增量。

Yes. So overall, WFE...

是的。所以總的來說，WFE...

I think overall, WFE is up. I think foundry is a bigger percentage. I think memory is kind of flattish, ends up a little bit. DRAM is down a little bit. I think the split within next year, my memory is a little better in the second half, but I'm not sure.

我認為總體而言，WFE 上升了。我認為代工佔更大的比例。我認為記憶有點平淡，結束了一點。 DRAM 下降了一點。我想明年之內的分裂，下半年我的記憶會好一點，但我不確定。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

And likewise, Bob, I guess one rodeo wasn't enough for you. So welcome back. Maybe just following up on the AGS side of things. Given the high utilization rates, the high demand for chips today, have you seen any incremental type of pickups in your services business just because your customers are trying to keep their tools running as best as possible? Are you seeing any incremental pickup in subscription businesses just because of the current environment?

同樣，鮑勃，我想一場牛仔競技表演對你來說還不夠。所以歡迎回來。也許只是跟進 AGS 方面的事情。鑑於今天的高利用率和對芯片的高需求，您是否看到您的服務業務中出現任何增量類型的拾取，僅僅是因為您的客戶正試圖讓他們的工具盡可能地運行？您是否僅僅因為當前的環境而看到訂閱業務的增長？

Yes. I think the answer is yes. I'm not sure if I covered it completely the call. I'll give you some data. You guys like data. If you look -- I want to look at sustainability of all this. So we looked at bookings, backlog, orders rates, stuff like that. The other thing I looked at was growth in wafer starts and tool utilization, right? So I'm not sure if we said it in the call, but tool utilization at the end of the calendar fiscal year was at an all-time high in the last 11 years I look back at across all device types. So that gave me confidence this thing is sustainable and looks pretty good and is good for our service business.

是的。我認為答案是肯定的。我不確定我是否完全覆蓋了電話。我給你一些數據。你們喜歡數據。如果你看 - 我想看看這一切的可持續性。所以我們查看了預訂、積壓、訂單率等等。我看到的另一件事是晶圓啟動和工具利用率的增長，對吧？所以我不確定我們是否在電話會議中說過，但在過去 11 年我回顧所有設備類型時，日曆財政年度結束時的工具利用率處於歷史最高水平。所以這讓我相信這件事是可持續的，看起來相當不錯，對我們的服務業務也有好處。

And then I also looked at growth in wafer starts. And growth in wafer starts, I think I said in the call, is about 40% foundry/logic and kind of about 20% memory since 2016, particularly strong in 300-millimeter wafer starts for foundry/logic. So then if you go with the question you asked, Patrick, we grew our service business 12% -- 21% last year. We're looking at about 12% this year. And if you look at high utilization, foundry/logic tools growing particularly well for us. We did pretty well in etch in previous years also. I see our service -- and we increased our contract and the life of our contracts from 1 to 3 years. The subscription revenue business, sustainability of the service business looks really good.

然後我還研究了晶圓開工的增長。自 2016 年以來，我想我在電話會議中說過，晶圓開工量的增長約為 40% 的代工/邏輯和大約 20% 的內存，尤其是用於代工/邏輯的 300 毫米晶圓開工增長。因此，如果您回答您提出的問題，Patrick，我們的服務業務去年增長了 12% - 21%。今年我們預計約為 12%。如果你看一下高利用率，代工/邏輯工具對我們來說發展得特別好。前幾年我們在蝕刻方面也做得很好。我看到了我們的服務——我們將合同和合同期限從 1 年延長到 3 年。訂閱收入業務，服務業務的可持續性看起來非常好。

Patrick, this is Gary. Just one other comment. In the discussions I've had with all of the CEOs, one thing that was pointed out was that having these subscription agreements and forecasted parts management, they said we're profiling better than others because they have those parts there. So from a supply standpoint, they said that was a big differentiator and gives them more conviction to continue and expand that type of approach.

帕特里克，這是加里。只是另一條評論。在我與所有 CEO 的討論中，有人指出，有了這些訂閱協議和預測的零件管理，他們說我們的分析比其他人更好，因為他們在那裡有這些零件。因此，從供應的角度來看，他們說這是一個很大的差異化因素，讓他們更有信心繼續並擴大這種方法。

Your next question comes from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

您的下一個問題來自於 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

I just wanted to ask about your outlook for China next year. In 2022, you said it would be down slightly. Wondering if you could give us a little bit more color what's driving that decline. Is it just digestion of capacity put in place this year? Do you see any political or export control impact or perhaps a trend towards supplier localization in China next year?

我只是想問一下你對明年中國的展望。 2022年你說會小幅下降。想知道你是否可以給我們更多的色彩是什麼推動了這種下降。僅僅是消化今年的產能嗎？您是否看到任何政治或出口管制影響，或者明年中國供應商本地化的趨勢？

Let me give some -- you guys are good data guys, and I'll give you some data. So 3 things in China. It's down some next year but pretty strong.

讓我給一些——你們是很好的數據人，我會給你一些數據。所以在中國有3件事。明年有所下降，但相當強勁。

The second thing is if you look at trend and local versus -- spending by local companies versus international companies, it's trending up. It was high 70s, kind of 77% this year, about 82% next year.

第二件事是，如果您查看趨勢和本地對比——本地公司與國際公司的支出，它呈上升趨勢。這是 70 年代的高點，今年是 77%，明年是 82%。

The third is mix and business. So they've trended like the rest of the world to go a little bit more foundry/logic. So they were like 52% -- 48% memory this year, going to like 52% next year. So they're trending that way. In terms of where it's down, I think DRAM is down a little bit in China next year and foundry. But the mix to foundry is trending up.

三是混合業務。所以他們已經像世界其他地方一樣傾向於更多的代工/邏輯。所以他們今年是 52% - 48% 的內存，明年會達到 52%。所以他們的趨勢是這樣的。至於下降的地方，我認為明年中國和代工的DRAM會下降一點。但代工的混合趨勢正在上升。

Our last question comes from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I have a question on the process control side. You guys talked about process control was not an area that was impacted by supply constraints, and now growing about 80 -- 60% for this year. You guys also talked about a number of AI(x) engagements potentially tripling next year instead of doubling. Just can you help us understand how these engagements impact your revenue growth potential? Do they generally translate into revenue in the same year or a number of years? Do they increase the overall size of the market or just an opportunity for Applied to gain shares? And generally, just how you measure success with those engagements?

我有一個關於過程控制方面的問題。你們談到過程控制不是一個受供應限制影響的領域，今年增長了大約 80 - 60%。你們還談到了一些 AI(x) 的參與，明年可能會增加三倍而不是翻倍。您能否幫助我們了解這些參與如何影響您的收入增長潛力？它們通常會在同一年或幾年內轉化為收入嗎？它們是增加了市場的整體規模，還是只是應用材料公司獲得份額的機會？一般來說，你如何衡量這些參與的成功？

Yes. This is Gary. Thanks for the question. So the fastest-growing largest part of our PDC business is our e-beam product family, and we have tremendous leadership there. We're growing share a significant amount. The strength is really on our resolution and speed of imaging. And we're expanding that gap with coal field emission where we have about a 50% resolution advantage versus others.

是的。這是加里。謝謝你的問題。因此，我們 PDC 業務中增長最快的最大部分是我們的電子束產品系列，我們在這方面擁有巨大的領導地位。我們的份額正在增長。真正的優勢在於我們的成像分辨率和速度。我們正在通過煤田排放擴大這一差距，與其他公司相比，我們擁有大約 50% 的分辨率優勢。

And so when you think about the -- certainly, the growth there -- and we have line of sight to really good growth also in 2022. This co-optimization with e-beam is very, very important. We talked about that, an example, for capacitor scaling where we're combining a new material we call Draco, with innovative etch technology. And basically, optimizing these process is incredibly complex. You're trying to optimize many, many different parameters at the same time. And the goal is to optimize those recipes as fast as possible with big process windows because that directly impacts yield. So this combination with e-beam is incredibly important.

因此，當您考慮 - 當然，那裡的增長 - 我們看到 2022 年也有非常好的增長。與電子束的這種共同優化非常非常重要。我們談到了一個例子，即電容器縮放，我們將一種稱為 Draco 的新材料與創新的蝕刻技術相結合。基本上，優化這些過程非常複雜。您正在嘗試同時優化許多不同的參數。目標是使用大工藝窗口盡可能快地優化這些配方，因為這直接影響產量。因此，這種與電子束的結合非常重要。

When you think about, again, capacitor scaling or gate-all-around or any of these big inflections, the ability to map that out and look at those fingerprints across the chip, you look at pattern loading for isolated dense structures, fingerprints across the wafer, being able to map out this multi-dimension space, and with the unique imaging of those features, which we have with our e-beam system, and then we talked about the Applied process recipe optimization, AppliedPRO within AI(x), it's really an enormous focus for all of our different customers.

當您再次考慮電容器縮放或環柵或任何這些大變化時，將其映射出來並查看芯片上的指紋的能力，您會查看隔離密集結構的圖案加載，指紋晶圓，能夠繪製出這個多維空間，並通過我們的電子束系統所擁有的這些特徵的獨特成像，然後我們討論了應用工藝配方優化，AI(x) 中的 AppliedPRO，對於我們所有不同的客戶來說，這確實是一個巨大的焦點。

So it certainly is growing our PDC business, but even more impactful, the opportunity for us to capture value with our IMS platforms, our co-optimized platforms is worth billions of dollars. So that is an accelerator for us that we're -- that gives us a tailwind, whether it's low R, gate-all-around, memory scaling, all of those different capabilities. And that's a great leading indicator going from 25 engagements to 75 next year. It does translate into wins in terms of these big inflections, accelerating the inflections. The T of the PPACt is worth an enormous amount for our customers. So it's really -- it's tremendously synergistic with our overall strategy and opportunity.

因此，它肯定會發展我們的 PDC 業務，但更具影響力的是，我們利用 IMS 平台獲取價值的機會，我們共同優化的平台價值數十億美元。所以這對我們來說是一個加速器——它給了我們一個順風，無論是低 R、環門、內存擴展，所有這些不同的功能。這是一個很好的領先指標，從 25 次參與到明年的 75 次。就這些大的變化而言，它確實轉化為勝利，加速了變化。 PPACt 的 T 對我們的客戶來說價值不菲。所以它真的 - 它與我們的整體戰略和機會具有極大的協同作用。

Thank you, Sidney. And Bob, would you like to help us close the call with some summary thoughts and...

謝謝你，西德尼。和鮑勃，你願意幫助我們結束通話並總結一些想法和......

All right. I have some summary thoughts. But first, I'm going to go off script and just say it's great to be back. We have a good team, included Gary. And when I visualize coming back, I thought of myself a little bit like Arnold Schwarzenegger in The Terminator. I'll be back. And then unfortunately, everyone hears (inaudible) Welcome Back, Kotter, but I'm back anyway.

好的。我有一些總結性的想法。但首先，我要跳出劇本，只是說能回來真是太好了。我們有一支優秀的團隊，包括加里。當我想像自己回來時，我覺得自己有點像《終結者》中的阿諾德施瓦辛格。我會回來的。然後不幸的是，每個人都聽到（聽不清）歡迎回來，Kotter，但我還是回來了。

So let's do the 3-legged stool. Our markets are in strong and in great shape. We think WFE is up next year and, frankly, positively biased until '23.

所以讓我們做三足凳。我們的市場強勁且狀況良好。我們認為 WFE 明年會上漲，坦率地說，直到 23 年之前，它都是積極的。

Second, Applied's position is strong. Our spending -- our demand is great. Our orders are great. Our backlog is great. The mix of the demand is really favorable for us, including foundry/logic, these advanced devices, ICAPS. It's really great.

其次，Applied 的地位很強。我們的支出——我們的需求很大。我們的訂單很棒。我們的積壓工作很棒。需求的組合對我們非常有利，包括代工廠/邏輯、這些先進的設備、ICAPS。這真的很棒。

Number three is our financial performance and capital returns. I have to admit, I was impressed that the gross margins went up 240 points this year, and we were up 540 points or 5.4% operating margins. And last year, we returned 96% of free cash flow to investors, and we're looking at a really strong cash flow this year. So I think the company is just in fundamentally great shape.

第三是我們的財務業績和資本回報。我不得不承認，今年毛利率上升了 240 點，而我們的營業利潤率上升了 540 點或 5.4%，這給我留下了深刻的印象。去年，我們將 96% 的自由現金流返還給了投資者，今年我們看到了非常強勁的現金流。所以我認為這家公司基本上處於良好的狀態。

We have supply chain headwinds. We take full accountability for making it work and delivering to customers. We are all over this issue. And next quarter or so, we're going to make a lot of progress. But fundamentally, this company is in great shape, and I'm looking forward to working with all of you again.

我們有供應鏈逆風。我們對使其工作和交付給客戶承擔全部責任。我們都在這個問題上。下個季度左右，我們將取得很大進展。但從根本上說，這家公司的狀況很好，我期待著再次與大家合作。

All right. Thanks, Bob. We'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on our website by 5 p.m. Pacific Time today. And Gary and I look forward to seeing many of you at the Credit Suisse Conference in Scottsdale in just a little while. And so happy Thanksgiving, and thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。謝謝，鮑勃。我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。下午 5 點之前將在我們的網站上重播電話會議。今天太平洋時間。加里和我期待在不久的將來在斯科茨代爾舉行的瑞士信貸會議上見到你們中的許多人。感恩節快樂，感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。