應用材料 (AMAT) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把會議交給公司副總裁邁克爾·沙利文先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

各位下午好，感謝各位參加Applied公司2021財年第一季財報電話會議。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson，以及我們的財務長 Dan Durn。

Before we begin I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的資訊包含在 Applied 向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP財務指標。有關 GAAP 指標的調節表，請參閱今天的獲利新聞稿和我們的季度獲利資料，這些資料可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的 IR 頁面上找到。

Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. On April 6, Applied plans to host a virtual investor meeting to discuss our markets, strategies and financial targets. We hope you'll save the date.

在正式開始之前，我有一個日程安排通知。4月6日，Applied計劃舉辦線上投資者會議，討論我們的市場、策略和財務目標。希望您能預留這個日期。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike. I'm very pleased to report another quarter of record performance for Applied Materials. Since the beginning of our fiscal year, we've seen a continued acceleration of demand in our semiconductor business as major macro and industry trends fuel increasing consumption of silicon across a wide range of markets and applications. 2020 was an excellent year for Applied as we outperformed our markets while growing our earnings nearly twice as fast as revenue. We carry this strong momentum into 2021. Our broad portfolio and exposure to technology inflections, combined with the traction of our new products, put us in a great position to substantially outgrow our markets again this year and into the future.

謝謝你，麥克。我非常高興地宣布，應用材料公司又一個季度業績創下歷史新高。自本財年開始以來，隨著宏觀和行業主要趨勢推動矽在各個市場和應用領域的消費量不斷增長，我們的半導體業務需求持續加速成長。2020 年對 Applied 來說是輝煌的一年，我們的業績超越了市場平均水平，同時獲利成長速度幾乎是營收成長速度的兩倍。我們將這股強勁勢頭延續到2021年。我們廣泛的產品組合和對技術變革的掌握，再加上我們新產品的市場吸引力，使我們處於非常有利的地位，今年及未來將再次大幅超越市場成長。

I want to thank our employees and suppliers for everything they are doing to deliver for our customers and shareholders. Our operations and field teams are doing an incredible job as we run the company at record levels and successfully overcome significant logistics and other challenges created by the pandemic.

我要感謝我們的員工和供應商，感謝他們為我們的客戶和股東所做的一切。我們的營運和現場團隊表現出色，公司營運水準創歷史新高，並成功克服了疫情帶來的重大物流和其他挑戰。

In R&D, our teams are working in new ways to accelerate the time to market of critical innovations for our customers, and we're doing all of this while maintaining a relentless focus on keeping our colleagues and families safe.

在研發方面，我們的團隊正以新的方式加快為客戶帶來關鍵創新成果的上市速度，同時，我們也始終不渝地關注保障同事和家人的安全。

As Mike outlined, we plan to hold an investor meeting in early April. At that event, we will provide our in-depth analysis of the major growth drivers and inflections that will shape our markets over the next 5 to 10 years and describe our strategy to deliver innovative new technologies to enable our customers' power, performance and cost road maps, accelerate their time to market and drive Applied's long-term profitable growth.

正如麥克所概述的那樣，我們計劃在四月初召開投資者會議。屆時，我們將深入分析未來 5 到 10 年塑造我們市場的主要成長驅動因素和轉折點，並闡述我們為實現客戶的功率、性能和成本路線圖、加快其產品上市速度以及推動應用材料公司長期盈利增長而提供的創新技術戰略。

In today's call, I will focus my comments on the near term, first, covering the dynamics we currently see in the market and then highlighting some of our recent accomplishments that illustrate the momentum we have across the business.

在今天的電話會議中，我將重點放在近期市場動態，首先介紹我們目前在市場中看到的動態，然後重點介紹我們最近取得的一些成就，以說明我們在整個業務領域所取得的良好勢頭。

Starting with a high-level view of our markets. We are seeing a diverse combination of macro and technology factors fueling very strong and sustainable demand for semiconductors. As the world continues to navigate the current challenges and prepares for a post-pandemic era, the digital transformation of the economy is being accelerated. Companies are rethinking and reengineering the way they operate, and there's an immense pull for advanced technology.

首先，讓我們從宏觀角度來了解我們的市場。我們看到，宏觀經濟和技術因素的多種組合正在推動對半導體的強勁且可持續的需求。隨著世界繼續應對當前的挑戰並為疫情時代做準備，經濟的數位轉型正在加速。企業正在重新思考和重新設計其營運方式，對先進技術的需求也十分巨大。

In addition, consumers are making different choices about the way they spend their time and the products and services they buy. I strongly believe many of the changes we're seeing today are irreversible since new ways of working offer compelling advantages in terms of time and productivity.

此外，消費者在如何支配時間以及購買產品和服務方面也做出了不同的選擇。我堅信，我們今天看到的許多變化都是不可逆轉的，因為新的工作方式在時間和生產力方面提供了顯著的優勢。

Within the electronics ecosystem itself, key technology inflections are driving increasing silicon consumption. I'll highlight 3 examples. Cloud service providers are forecasting data center CapEx growth of more than 15% this year on top of record spending in 2020. With the broader adoption of 5G handsets, silicon content in smartphones is growing at double-digit rates. And in automotive, where there are known supply shortfalls, total semi consumption is expected to expand more than 15% this year, translating these factors to industry investments. In foundry/logic, leading-edge investments are very strong and have been well articulated by our customers.

在電子生態系統內部，關鍵技術變革正在推動矽消耗量的增加。我將重點介紹三個例子。雲端服務供應商預測，在 2020 年創紀錄的支出基礎上，今年資料中心資本支出將成長超過 15%。隨著 5G 手機的廣泛普及，智慧型手機中的矽含量正以兩位數的速度成長。在汽車產業，由於供應短缺，預計今年半導體總消費量將成長超過 15%，這些因素將轉化為產業投資。在晶圓代工/邏輯電路領域，尖端技術投資力道非常大，我們的客戶也對此進行了充分的闡述。

On top of that, our ICAPs business that serves the IoT, communications, auto, power and sensor markets is expected to grow even faster and is on track to exceed $3 billion of revenue for the fiscal year. And then 2020 was a strong recovery year with spending up more than 30%. And in 2021, we expect customers to invest at modestly higher levels. In DRAM, supply-demand fundamentals look more favorable than NAND. And as a result, we still expect DRAM investments to outgrow NAND this year. All of this adds up to a very strong demand environment for wafer fab equipment, and we believe this strength is sustainable well beyond 2021.

除此之外，我們服務於物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器市場的 ICAPs 業務預計將成長得更快，並有望在本財年實現超過 30 億美元的收入。2020 年是強勁復甦之年，消費支出成長超過 30%。2021年，我們預計客戶的投資水準將略有提高。在DRAM領域，供需基本面看起來比NAND更有優勢。因此，我們仍然預期今年DRAM的投資成長將超過NAND。所有這些因素加起來，使得晶圓製造設備的需求環境非常強勁，我們相信這種強勁勢頭將持續到 2021 年以後。

Digital transformation touches every sector of the economy and is nondiscretionary for many industries. In addition, industry investments appear disciplined. When you look at wafer fab equipment intensities, that's wafer fab equipment revenues as a percentage of semiconductor industry revenues, they are well below recent peaks in all 3 of the device segments: foundry/logic, NAND and DRAM.

數位化轉型影響著經濟的各個領域，對許多產業來說是不可或缺的。此外，產業投資似乎很有紀律性。從晶圓製造設備強度（即晶圓製造設備收入佔半導體產業收入的百分比）來看，這三個裝置領域（晶圓代工/邏輯、NAND 和 DRAM）的強度都遠低於近期的峰值。

Turning to Applied's business performance. Our Semiconductor Systems revenues for the first fiscal quarter were up 26% compared to the same period last year. At the midpoint of our Q2 guidance, Semi Systems will be up around 50% year-on-year. And based on our current outlook, we expect to again grow faster than the market for the year as a whole.

接下來我們來看看Applied公司的業務表現。我們第一財季的半導體系統營收比去年同期成長了 26%。根據我們第二季業績指引的中位數，半導體系統業務將年增約 50%。根據我們目前的預測，我們預計今年全年的成長速度將再次超過市場平均水平。

There are a number of factors contributing to this outstanding performance. First, our business is very well balanced across devices and customers. Second, we have the broadest portfolio of products and capabilities, spanning materials creation, modification, removal and analysis. These technologies, combined with our ability to connect them in unique ways, are fundamental to enabling our customers' power, performance and cost road maps. And third, we have an incredible pipeline of new products and integrated solutions that are winning applications, expanding our served opportunities and reducing the time it takes our customers to bring important new innovations to market.

促成這卓越表現的因素有很多。首先，我們的業務在設備和客戶群方面非常均衡。其次，我們擁有最廣泛的產品組合和能力，涵蓋材料的創造、改質、去除和分析。這些技術，加上我們以獨特方式將它們連接起來的能力，對於實現客戶的電力、性能和成本路線圖至關重要。第三，我們擁有令人難以置信的新產品和整合解決方案儲備，這些產品和解決方案正在贏得應用，擴大我們的服務機會，並縮短客戶將重要創新推向市場所需的時間。

Node-over-node opportunity growth in both foundry/logic and memory favors Applied's leadership businesses, including epi, thermal processing, CMP and PVD. In fact, we believe our PVD business can grow more than 40% this year and generate more than $3 billion of revenue.

在晶圓代工/邏輯和記憶體領域，節點間成長的機會有利於應用材料公司的領先業務，包括外延、熱處理、CMP 和 PVD。事實上，我們相信今年我們的 PVD ​​業務可以成長超過 40%，並創造超過 30 億美元的收入。

Our latest-generation products have strong momentum, and more than 25% of our 2021 revenues will come from critical applications that we've targeted and won since 2018. Some highlights include CVD, where we grew revenues 30% in 2020 and have strong customer pull for new, differentiated material solutions that are highly enabling for advanced patterning; conductor etch, where we're winning new applications in DRAM and foundry/logic that contributed to our 32% revenue growth in this market last year; process diagnostics and control, where we believe we can grow more than 25% this fiscal year on top of the 45% growth we delivered in 2020, thanks to new optical wafer inspection and e-beam products that are still in the early stages of adoption; in packaging, where we expect revenues to be up 50% year-on-year on top of strong growth in 2020.

我們最新一代產品發展勢頭強勁，2021 年超過 25% 的收入將來自我們自 2018 年以來瞄準並贏得的關鍵應用。亮點包括：CVD，我們在 2020 年實現了 30% 的收入成長，客戶對新型差異化材料解決方案有著強烈的需求，這些解決方案能夠極大地促進先進圖形化；導體蝕刻，我們在 DRAM 和代工/邏輯領域贏得了新的應用，這促成了我們去年在該市場 32%的收入成長；製程診斷和控制，我們相信，由於新的光學晶圓檢測和電子束產品仍處於早期應用階段，我們本財年可以在 2020 年 45% 的增長基礎上再增長 25% 以上；封裝，我們預計在 2020 年強勁增長的基礎上，收入將同比增長 50%。

Also, over the past few years, we've started introducing a new class of highly differentiated products that we call Integrated Materials Solutions, or IMS. Our IMS products can combine multiple process technologies with onboard metrology and sensors within a single system that are capable of enabling unique films, structures and devices. We have numerous IMS engagements with our leading customers. And this year, we will generate meaningful revenues from our initial IMS products.

此外，在過去的幾年裡，我們開始推出一類高度差異化的新產品，我們稱之為整合材料解決方案，或 IMS。我們的 IMS 產品可以將多種製程技術與車載計量和感測器結合在一個系統中，從而能夠製造獨特的薄膜、結構和裝置。我們與眾多領先客戶進行了 IMS 合作專案。今年，我們將從首批 IMS 產品中獲得可觀的收入。

Moving to service. AGS delivered another record quarter. Over the past 5 years, we've grown our services business at a compound annual growth rate of 12%, which is twice as fast as our installed base growth. In this period, we've increased the percentage of service and parts revenue generated by service agreements from around 40% to more than 60%. These long-term agreements enable us to deliver more value to customers with our advanced service products while providing us with stickier and more predictable recurring revenue streams. Our renewal rates for these agreements are also very high at over 90%.

轉為服務。AGS 又創下了一個季度的新紀錄。過去 5 年，我們的服務業務以 12% 的複合年增長率成長，是現有客戶群成長速度的兩倍。在此期間，我們透過服務協議產生的服務和零件收入比例從約 40% 提高到 60% 以上。這些長期協議使我們能夠透過先進的服務產品為客戶提供更多價值，同時為我們帶來更穩定、更可預測的經常性收入來源。這些協議的續約率也非常高，超過 90%。

Finally, in display. Our outlook remains consistent with the view we shared in November. We expect 2021 revenues to be similar to 2020 as we continue to manage through the current market trough. We do see encouraging leading indicators of future growth, including higher OLED adoption in the smartphone market with the vast majority of 5G handsets being equipped with OLED screens and increasing OLED consumption beyond phones in TVs and IT applications. We still believe OLED is a compelling technology, and this inflection is a great catalyst for the display market that will create expanded opportunities for Applied.

最後，進入展示環節。我們的展望與我們在11月提出的觀點保持一致。我們預計 2021 年的收入將與 2020 年類似，因為我們將繼續應對當前市場低迷的時期。我們確實看到了令人鼓舞的未來成長的領先指標，包括智慧型手機市場對 OLED 的更高採用率，絕大多數 5G 手機都配備了 OLED 螢幕，以及 OLED 在手機以外的電視和 IT 應用領域的消費量不斷增加。我們仍然相信 OLED 是一項極具吸引力的技術，而這項轉變將成為顯示器市場的巨大催化劑，為應用材料創造更多機會。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, I want to again thank all our employees for their outstanding contributions to Applied's success. 2021 is off to a great start with record results and outlook. We see strong and sustainable demand in our semiconductor business, fueled by a combination of macro and technology drivers. We have great momentum, thanks to our broad market exposure and differentiated portfolio of new products. And we believe we're in a great position to outperform our markets again this year.

在將電話交給丹之前，我想再次感謝我們所有員工為應用材料公司的成功所做的傑出貢獻。2021年開局良好，取得了創紀錄的成績，前景一片光明。我們看到半導體業務的需求強勁且可持續，這得益於宏觀經濟和技術因素的共同推動。憑藉廣泛的市場覆蓋率和差異化的新產品組合，我們擁有強勁的發展勢頭。我們相信，今年我們完全有能力再次跑贏大盤。

Finally, we're looking forward to sharing our long-term vision for the industry and Applied Materials at our investor event in April.

最後，我們期待在四月的投資者活動上與大家分享我們對產業和應用材料的長期願景。

Now Dan will give his perspective on the business environment and provide more color on our financial results and operational performance. Dan?

現在丹將就商業環境發表他的看法，並對我們的財務表現和營運表現進行更詳細的分析。擔？

Thanks, Gary. Today, I'll begin by summarizing Applied's performance in Q1, and then I'll share some of the key drivers of our growth relative to the markets in calendar 2020, and I'll finish with our guidance for Q2.

謝謝你，加里。今天，我將首先總結應用材料公司第一季的業績，然後分享我們在 2020 年相對於市場成長的一些關鍵驅動因素，最後給出我們對第二季的展望。

Beginning with our Q1 performance. Applied delivered record revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share. We grew revenue by 24% year-over-year and exceeded the high end of our guidance. I'm pleased that we increased gross margin by around 100 basis points year-over-year, particularly since we are still experiencing COVID-related manufacturing protocols and logistics costs. We also generated record non-GAAP operating profit of nearly $1.5 billion, which was up 40% year-over-year. We increased non-GAAP EPS by 42% year-over-year to $1.39.

首先從我們第一季的業績說起。應用科技實現了創紀錄的營收和非GAAP每股收益。我們實現了24%的年成長，並超過了預期上限。我很高興我們的毛利率年增了約 100 個基點，尤其是在我們仍然面臨與新冠疫情相關的生產規程和物流成本的情況下。我們也創造了近 15 億美元的非 GAAP 營業利潤紀錄，年增 40%。非GAAP每股盈餘較去年同期成長42%至1.39美元。

Our teams operated with discipline, and this enabled Applied to deliver record free cash flow of $1.3 billion, which was up 47% year-over-year. We increased cash and investments on the balance sheet by nearly $950 million to $8.22 billion as we await the regulatory decision for the Kokusai Electric transaction. I look forward to updating you on our capital allocation plans when we get together for the investor meeting in April.

我們的團隊以嚴謹的作風開展工作，這使得應用材料公司實現了創紀錄的 13 億美元自由現金流，年增 47%。在等待國際電氣交易的監管決定期間，我們將資產負債表上的現金和投資增加了近 9.5 億美元，達到 82.2 億美元。我期待在四月的投資者會議上向您報告我們的資本配置計劃。

Turning to the segments. Our Semi Systems group increased revenue by 26% year-over-year, including new quarterly records in etch, metal deposition and CMP. Operating margin grew by 320 basis points year-over-year. Applied Global Services also delivered revenue above our expectations while reporting its highest operating margin over the past 2 years despite ongoing challenges related to COVID. The display group exceeded its revenue target and increased operating margin by 590 basis points year-over-year. Looking ahead, our demand outlook calls for growth. We currently expect all 3 of our segments to post higher revenue in the second half of our fiscal year.

接下來進入分段部分。我們的半導體系統集團營收年增 26%，其中包括蝕刻、金屬沉積和 CMP 的新季度記錄。營業利益率年增320個基點。儘管面臨與 COVID 相關的持續挑戰，Applied Global Services 的收入也超出了我們的預期，同時實現了過去兩年來最高的營業利潤率。顯示器業務部門超額完成了營收目標，營業利潤率年增了 590 個基點。展望未來，我們的需求前景預示著成長。我們目前預計，本財年下半年我們所有三個業務部門的收入都將成長。

Next, I'll comment on our semiconductor equipment revenue performance in calendar 2020, which is equal to our Q2 of fiscal 2020 through Q1 of fiscal 2021. As I previewed on our November earnings call, 2020 was a memory growth year in which NAND equipment spending grew at nearly twice the rate of the overall market. DRAM customer spending also grew faster than the market, and foundry/logic investments grew slower than the overall market but still accounted for over 55% of total spending. Applied has balanced share, and our revenue profile resembled the overall mix with our highest growth in NAND at 34%. We grew by 27% in DRAM and 23% in foundry/logic, and we believe we significantly outperformed in both of these end markets.

接下來，我將評論我們 2020 年的半導體設備營收表現，相當於我們 2020 財年第二季到 2021 財年第一季。正如我在 11 月的財報電話會議上預告的那樣，2020 年是記憶體成長的一年，NAND 設備支出成長速度幾乎是整體市場成長率的兩倍。DRAM 客戶的支出成長速度也超過了市場整體水平，而代工/邏輯投資的成長速度低於整體市場水平，但仍佔總支出的 55% 以上。Applied 的市佔率較為均衡，我們的營收結構與整體結構相似，其中 NAND 的成長最為顯著，達到 34%。我們在 DRAM 領域成長了 27%，在晶圓代工/邏輯領域成長了 23%，我們相信我們在這兩個終端市場都取得了顯著的優異表現。

Within the semi systems group, our growth was strongest in areas where we've made significant investments to drive the new playbook to develop integrated material solutions for our customers and introduce new products where we have significant room to gain share. One of our fastest-growth areas was in advance packaging, where we have the industry's broadest portfolio and by far the highest share. As Gary said, we expect this momentum to continue into 2021.

在半導體系統集團內部，我們在以下領域實現了最強勁的成長：我們投入巨資推動新的策略，為客戶開發整合材料解決方案，並推出新產品，在這些領域我們有很大的市場份額提升空間。我們成長最快的領域之一是預包裝，我們在該領域擁有業內最廣泛的產品組合和最高的市場份額。正如加里所說，我們預計這種勢頭將延續到 2021 年。

Our dollar growth was highest in CVD and etch, which reflects the success we've had co-optimizing new CVD films with our Sym3 etch system to create unique patterning solutions across 3D NAND, DRAM and foundry/logic. Among new products, our latest optical wafer inspection system grew by 44% in 2020, achieving over $400 million in cumulative revenue. We'll officially introduce the new system in the near future to explain its unique architectural features, along with breakthrough AI capabilities that are generating strong customer pull.

我們的美元成長在 CVD 和蝕刻領域最為顯著，這反映了我們成功地將新的 CVD 薄膜與我們的 Sym3 蝕刻系統進行協同優化，從而為 3D NAND、DRAM 和代工/邏輯領域創造了獨特的圖案化解決方案。在新產品中，我們最新的光學晶圓檢測系統在 2020 年成長了 44%，累計收入超過 4 億美元。我們將於近期正式推出新系統，闡述其獨特的架構特點以及突破性的人工智慧功能，這些功能正吸引眾多客戶。

Turning to calendar 2021. We expect strong foundry/logic spending to continue. We also expect DRAM spending to grow at a faster pace than NAND. This 2021 mix expectation plays particularly well to Applied's technology innovations and strong product road map.

翻到2021年曆。我們預計晶圓代工/邏輯裝置方面的強勁支出將持續下去。我們也預期 DRAM 支出成長速度將超過 NAND。2021 年的這種組合預期與 Applied 的技術創新和強大的產品路線圖非常契合。

Now I'll share our Q2 business outlook. We expect company revenue to be approximately $5.39 billion, plus or minus $200 million. The midpoint would be up about 36% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP EPS to be about $1.50, plus or minus $0.06, or up about 70% year-over-year.

現在我將分享我們第二季的業務展望。我們預計公司營收約 53.9 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元。中間值將比上年同期上漲約 36%。我們預期非GAAP每股收益約1.50美元，上下浮動0.06美元，年增約70%。

Within this outlook, we project Semiconductor Systems revenue of $3.85 billion, up around 50% year-over-year; and AGS revenue of about $1.14 billion, up around 12% year-over-year. These forecasts do not include any revenue from shipments that still require government licenses. We expect display revenue of around $370 million with growth resuming in the second half. We expect Applied's non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 47% or up around 240 basis points year-over-year, and we expect non-GAAP OpEx to increase to $890 million. Our Q2 guidance assumes a non-GAAP tax rate of 12% to 13% and a weighted average share count of around 929 million.

在此展望中，我們預期半導體系統業務營收為 38.5 億美元，年增約 50%；AGS 業務營收約為 11.4 億美元，年成長約 12%。這些預測不包括仍需政府許可才能進行的貨物運輸所產生的任何收入。我們預計顯示器收入約 3.7 億美元，下半年將恢復成長。我們預計 Applied 的非 GAAP 毛利率約為 47%，比去年同期成長約 240 個基點，我們預計非 GAAP 營運支出將增加至 8.9 億美元。我們第二季業績指引假設非GAAP稅率為12%至13%，加權平均股數約為9.29億股。

In summary, I'm pleased that Applied delivered another quarter of record performance in Q1 with strong year-over-year growth in revenue and profitability.

總而言之，我很高興Applied在第一季再次取得了創紀錄的業績，營收和獲利能力都實現了強勁的年成長。

I'd like to join Gary in thanking our teams for supporting our customers under challenging circumstances and operating with discipline to generate higher margins and free cash flow. Execution by our employees has been and continues to be nothing short of superb in what is still a challenging COVID environment.

我謹代表 Gary 感謝我們的團隊在充滿挑戰的環境下為客戶提供支持，並以嚴謹的作風運營，從而創造更高的利潤率和自由現金流。在當前充滿挑戰的 COVID-19 環境下，我們員工的執行力一直都非常出色，並且仍在持續提升。

We look forward to giving you more insights into our markets and our company's growth plans at the investor meeting in April.

我們期待在四月的投資者會議上，向您詳細介紹我們的市場和公司的發展計劃。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

麥克，現在開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，丹。（操作說明）

Operator, let's please begin.

操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 與 Evercore 的對話。

I guess if you look back to 2020, it looks like you outperformed WFE by about 8 percentage points. And obviously, you talked about favorable mix coming into 2021 led by foundry and DRAM as well as, I assume, your strong position on the legacy side. So curious if you can kind of speak to what kind of outperformance we should be thinking about relative to WFE in 2021 and if you can point to the particular drivers that we should be focused on.

如果回顧 2020 年，你們的表現似乎比 WFE 高出約 8 個百分點。顯然，您談到了在晶圓代工和DRAM的引領下，2021年將出現有利的組合，而且，我猜想，您在傳統晶片領域也佔據著強大的地位。所以，我很想知道，相對於 2021 年的 WFE，我們應該考慮什麼樣的超額收益，以及我們應該關注的具體驅動因素是什麼。

Yes. Thanks, C.J. So in 2020, if we say the market's around $60 billion in 2020, I would say it's up a little more than 16% against that backdrop. If you look at our Semi Systems segment, we grew our Semi Systems segment revenue by 26.5%, so significant outperformance, as you've called out.

是的。謝謝，C.J.。所以，如果說2020年市場規模約為600億美元，那麼我認為在這種背景下，它的漲幅略高於16%。如您所指出的，如果您看一下我們的半導體系統業務板塊，我們的半導體系統業務板塊收入增長了 26.5%，業績顯著優於預期。

As we look at the drivers in 2020, foundry/logic grew below the industry average. It was really a memory-driven growth year; NAND, about 2x; DRAM, a little more than the industry average. So the company performed really well in that environment.

當我們回顧 2020 年的驅動因素時，晶圓代工/邏輯晶片的成長低於行業平均。今年確實是記憶體驅動成長的一年；NAND快閃記憶體成長了約2倍；DRAM成長略高於產業平均。所以，該公司在這種環境下表現非常出色。

As we go to 2021, we view the spend mix to be a more favorable environment for us as a company. Foundry/logic will continue to be strong in 2021. We see DRAM outgrowing NAND. And so against that more favorable spend mix, we would expect to significantly outperform the market again this year. So we feel really good about how we're positioned against the market opportunity. We've got robust end markets and strong product momentum within those end markets, so we feel good.

展望 2021 年，我們認為支出結構對我們公司而言是一個更有利的環境。2021年，Foundry/logic產業將持續保持強勁勢頭。我們看到DRAM的成長速度超過了NAND​​。因此，在這種更有利的支出結構下，我們預計今年將再次大幅跑贏大盤。因此，我們對自身在市場機會中的定位感到非常滿意。我們擁有強大的終端市場，並且這些終端市場中的產品發展勢頭強勁，所以我們感覺良好。

And then as we look beyond 2021, we see from an overall market standpoint and a company-specific momentum standpoint, we see continued strong performance into 2022. So again, we like how well we're positioned. 2021 is a more favorable mix, and I would expect us to significantly outperform again.

展望 2021 年後，從整體市場角度和公司具體發展動能角度來看，我們預計 2022 年將持續保持強勁的業績。所以，我們再次對目前的市場定位感到滿意。2021 年的各種因素更加有利，我預計我們將再次取得顯著的優異成績。

Yes. C.J., this is Gary. Thanks for the question. I'll give a little bit more color relative to our specific opportunities. If you look at the industry overall, certainly, technology is transforming every aspect of our lives. That's driving the overall business sustainably higher. And at the same time, we've talked about 2D scaling coming to an end. So really -- and you can even see in recent meetings with some of our largest customers where they're publicly talking about the road map going forward around new chip architectures, new structures, new materials, new ways to connect chips together, design technology co-optimization, again, around certain structures and materials. And so that's really where we're focused.

是的。C.J.，我是加里。謝謝你的提問。我將結合我們面臨的具體機遇，再補充一些細節。從整個產業來看，科技無疑正在改變我們生活的各個層面。這正推動整體業務持續成長。同時，我們也討論過 2D 縮放即將結束。所以實際上——你甚至可以從最近與我們一些最大客戶的會議中看到，他們公開談論著未來圍繞新晶片架構、新結構、新材料、晶片連接新方式、設計技術協同優化等方面的路線圖，同樣也是圍繞某些結構和材料展開的。所以，這才是我們真正關注的重點。

And when you think about what's going to enable the future, it really is about new structures, new materials. We talked about packaging up 50%, new ways to connect chips together. And we're just in a sweet spot relative to the technologies we have. When you think about creating those new structures and new materials, PVD is a big driver for us. Our epi business is going to be very strong this year. The thermal processing, CVD, all of those areas are very strong. Etch, we're continuing to win.

當你思考什麼將推動未來發展時，你會發現它實際上與新的結構、新的材料息息相關。我們討論了封裝率提高 50%，以及晶片連接的新方法。就我們現有的技術而言，我們正處於一個非常有利的位置。當您考慮創造這些新結構和新材料時，PVD 對我們來說是一個重要的驅動力。今年我們的表皮生長因子業務將會非常強勁。熱處理、化學氣相沉積等這些領域都非常強。呃，我們繼續贏下去。

And when you think about shaping those structures, our Selectra product is a leader in the industry, creating and shaping those structures and then the modification with CMP and implant. And then in PDC, as I talked about in the prepared remarks, that business is growing for us. So I can certainly give more color later on the call on that.

而說到塑造這些結構，我們的 Selectra 產品是業界領導者，它能夠創造和塑造這些結構，然後透過 CMP 和植入進行修改。然後，正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的，PDC 的業務正在成長。所以，我稍後肯定會就此提供更多細節。

But again, we're just in a really great position. When you think about what's going to enable the future inflections and the power and performance for the infrastructure, going forward, we've never been in a better position.

但話說回來，我們現在的處境真的非常有利。當你思考未來哪些因素將推動基礎設施的轉型升級，以及基礎設施的實力和性能時，你會發現，我們從未像現在這樣處於如此有利的地位。

And C.J., maybe one more point to add to what Gary is saying. And as I went through the profile of spend, one data point I left out was the aggregate size of the market in 2021. I think we'll have more to say in a point-specific way around overall WFE size in '21 and beyond at the investor meeting coming up here in about 6 weeks. But if the overall industry consensus today is, call it, high 60s, $70 billion, I'd say our view is a bit higher than that as we sit here today.

C.J.，或許可以再補充一點，補充一下Gary的觀點。在分析支出狀況時，我漏掉了一個數據點，那就是 2021 年的市場總規模。我認為，在大約 6 週後即將召開的投資者會議上，我們將就 2021 年及以後 WFE 的整體規模進行更具體的討論。但如果目前整個產業的普遍共識是，比如說，600多億美元到700億美元，那麼就我們目前的情況來看，我們的看法要高一些。

Thanks, C.J.

謝謝，C.J.

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Congratulations on the solid results and guide. Dan, it's probably not all that surprising that half-on-half growth is expected, both in services and display. But in the Semi System businesses, that's a little bit different than kind of the tone that some of your peers have talked about with kind of a first half weighting of WFE. And it might be explained by your last comment to C.J.'s question about having a little bit higher view on overall WFE.

恭喜你們取得如此優異的成績和指導。丹，服務和展示業務預計都會實現一半的成長，這可能並不令人驚訝。但在半導體系統業務中，這與一些同行所談論的關於WFE前半部分權重的基調略有不同。這或許可以用你對 C.J. 關於「對 WFE 整體看法稍微高一些」的問題的最後一條評論來解釋。

But I'm kind of curious, given that your fiscal year doesn't match up with the calendar year, do you think, on a calendar year basis, that we're going to have a stronger second half than first half? And just relative to your fiscal year commentary, what gives you the bottoms-up confidence of half-on-half growth, specifically in the Semi Systems business?

但我有點好奇，鑑於你們的財政年度與日曆年不一致，你認為從日曆年的角度來看，我們下半年的業績會比上半年更好嗎？就您本財年的評論而言，是什麼讓您對半導體系統業務實現同比增長充滿信心？

Yes. Sure, John. Thanks for the question. Let me try to unpack it a little bit so we can talk about sort of what we're seeing in our business versus maybe what others see in theirs. So I guess the first thing I'd point to is we've got very broad end-market exposure. We're very balanced across all 3 device types: foundry/logic, NAND, DRAM, really strong positions in each of those end markets. But within those markets, we've got product breadth and momentum around a number of our businesses. So we've got more balanced end-market exposure than, say, some who are more narrowly focused.

是的。當然可以，約翰。謝謝你的提問。讓我試著解釋一下，這樣我們就可以談談我們在自己的業務中看到的情況，以及其他人在他們的業務中看到的情況。所以我想指出的第一點是，我們的終端市場覆蓋率非常廣泛。我們在所有三種裝置類型（晶圓代工/邏輯裝置、NAND快閃記憶體、DRAM）方面都非常平衡，在每個終端市場都佔據著非常強大的地位。但在這些市場中，我們的許多業務都擁有廣泛的產品線和強勁的發展勢頭。因此，與一些專注於狹窄領域的公司相比，我們在終端市場方面擁有更均衡的佈局。

Second thing I'd point to, and this ties into the answer I just gave to C.J.'s question, we've got a more favorable mix setup in 2021 with foundry/logic continuing to be strong, DRAM outgrowing NAND. So I think that serves us well for continued and significant outperformance. And then we talked about carrying the momentum, both from a market and product standpoint, into 2022. So I feel good about how that transition looks.

第二點我想指出，這與我剛才回答 C.J. 的問題有關，2021 年我們的市場組合更加有利，晶圓代工/邏輯晶片繼續保持強勁勢頭，DRAM 的增長速度超過了 NAND。所以我認為這有利於我們持續取得顯著的優異業績。然後我們討論瞭如何從市場和產品角度將這種勢頭延續到 2022 年。所以我對這個過渡效果很滿意。

And then lastly, as you rightfully pointed out, within the fiscal year, we see back-half momentum with each of our respective reporting segments. So again, where we sit today, we think we're really well set up for strong performance throughout the year.

最後，正如您所指出的，在本財年內，我們看到各個報告部門在下半年呈現成長動能。所以，就我們目前的情況來看，我們認為我們已經做好了充分的準備，能夠在全年取得優異的成績。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

For either Gary or Dan, there's a lot of talk of chip shortages these days. Do you think this $70 billion WFE for the industry is sufficient to address these shortages? Or can the WFE number be higher? Or do you think that this actually could push out some of the demand into next year as well before the shortages are fully met?

無論是 Gary 還是 Dan，最近都在談論晶片短缺的問題。你認為這700億美元的WFE（勞動發展基金）足以解決產業勞動力短缺問題嗎？或者WFE值可以更高嗎？或者您認為這實際上可能會將部分需求推遲到明年，直到短缺問題完全解決？

Yes. So a couple of things on that, Vivek. First of all, our number for the aggregate size in 2021, we weren't point-specific, but we're a little higher than where the -- a bit higher than where the industry consensus is. I do think there's good, strong positive momentum.

是的。關於這一點，維韋克，有幾點需要說明。首先，我們給出的 2021 年總規模數字，雖然沒有給出具體數值，但比產業共識略高一些。我認為目前形勢良好，發展勢頭強勁。

I think the capacity our customers put in place is around multiyear demand statements. To make these investments make sense over the long run, drive a return on those investments, there has to be a substantive, not a transitorial, demand statement that sits behind those investments our customers make. And so we do think there's a bit of catch-up spend. When you think about shortages in the auto industry, we think that's going to be a good end market. But I don't think that market, in and of itself, is sufficiently large to drive the types of demand that we're talking about in the current environment.

我認為我們的客戶投入的產能是圍繞著多年需求報表建構的。為了使這些投資在長期內有意義，並獲得投資回報，我們的客戶進行這些投資的背後必須有實質的需求，而不是暫時的需求。因此，我們認為目前存在一些追趕性支出。考慮到汽車行業的短缺情況，我們認為這將是一個很好的終端市場。但我認為，就目前的情況而言，這個市場本​​身的規模還不足以推動我們所談論的那種需求。

So then we look at greater than $70 billion in 2021, the demand statement that sits behind that, it's diverse. It's broad. All the respective end markets, NAND, DRAM, foundry/logic, are strong. Some grow faster than others. And it's on the back of these trends we've been talking about playing out over time. We think we're in the very early innings. This is going to be a decade-plus investment cycle. Semiconductors are going to be on the key path of enabling some pretty major trends that play out around the world.

因此，我們看到 2021 年的需求量超過 700 億美元，而背後的需求聲明是多元化的。它的範圍很廣。所有相關的終端市場，包括 NAND、DRAM 和晶圓代工/邏輯晶片，都非常強勁。有些動物生長速度比其他動物快。而這正是基於我們一直在討論的這些趨勢隨著時間的推移而逐漸顯現的結果。我們認為現在還處於比賽的初期階段。這將是一個持續十多年的投資週期。半導體將在推動全球一些重大趨勢方面發揮關鍵作用。

And so our customers are going to be disciplined. They'll continue to add capacity where it makes sense, but it will be in support of what is a more substantive long-term demand statement in the market as opposed to any near-term dynamic that will be temporary in nature.

因此，我們的客戶將會更加自律。他們將繼續在合理的地方增加產能，但這是為了支持市場中更實質的長期需求，而不是任何短期的、暫時的動態。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I wanted to ask about gross margins. Dan, you showed nice upside in the January quarter. I was curious what drove that. And then for April, you're guiding up margins nicely, both sequentially and year-over-year. Where are the puts and takes there? And I guess, going into the second half of the fiscal year, would it be fair to assume sort of a gradual progression higher given potentially faster growth in your leadership products and hopefully COVID inefficiencies going away?

我想問一下毛利率的問題。丹，你在1月的季度表現不錯。我很好奇是什麼原因導致了這種情況。然後，對於四月份的業績，你們的利潤率預期表現良好，無論是環比還是同比。那裡的放貨和拿貨點在哪裡？我想，進入下半年的財政年度，考慮到貴公司領導力產品可能增長更快，以及新冠疫情帶來的效率低下問題有望消失，是否可以合理地假設業績會逐步上升呢？

Yes. Thanks, Toshiya. When I think about gross margins, company is performing well. We're up 100 basis points year-over-year in the most recent quarter's results. On the guide, we're up about 240 basis points year-over-year, and that's against the backdrop of still some pretty sizable headwinds as it relates to the pandemic safety protocols in our factories, logistics costs to move material around the world. And so I think the company is performing extremely well in the current environment.

是的。謝謝，Toshiya。從毛利率來看，公司表現良好。在最近一個季度的業績中，我們比去年同期成長了100個基點。根據指導值，我們比去年同期上升了約 240 個基點，但這是在工廠疫情安全協議、全球物料運輸物流成本等諸多不利因素的影響下實現的。所以我認為，在當前環境下，該公司表現非常出色。

And when I think about what's driving that, there's a set of company-specific actions that drive discipline and efficiency into the core operations of the business. No matter where our gross margins are, I will never be satisfied. We've had a number of actions inside of the company to drive that efficiency, to drive that discipline into the core of the operations, and we're beginning to see some of those really take hold in the current environment. So we feel good about the work streams, a lot of hard work inside of the company, doing some really hard work and fundamental things to drive that efficiency.

當我思考是什麼在推動這一切時，我發現是一系列公司特有的行動，這些行動將紀律性和效率帶入了企業的核心運作中。無論毛利率是多少，我永遠不會滿意。公司內部採取了一系列措施來提高效率，將紀律融入營運的核心，我們開始看到其中一些措施在當前環境下真正奏效。所以我們對工作流程感到滿意，公司內部付出了很多努力，做了很多真正艱苦的工作和基礎性的事情來提高效率。

You'll always have an element of customer mix and what we happen to be selling in any 1 quarter that will influence things from quarter-to-quarter, but there's a whole host of substantive actions that we think are serving the company really well in the current environment.

客戶組合和我們每季的銷售情況總是會對季度業績產生一定影響，但我們認為，在當前環境下，一系列實質的舉措對公司非常有益。

As I look forward into the back half of the fiscal year, this is not a 1-quarter phenomenon. The top end of our long-term target model for gross margin was 47%. And even in the COVID environment, we're operating at that level. I would expect us in the back half of the year to be -- continue to be in the 46.5% to 47% top end of our long-term model.

展望本財年下半年，並非一個季度的現象。我們長期目標毛利率模型的上限為 47%。即使在新冠疫情環境下，我們仍然保持著這樣的營運水準。我預計今年下半年我們將繼續維持在長期模式預測的上限 46.5% 至 47%。

At our Analyst Day, we'll talk about what we see beyond the current horizon over the next several years and opportunities we see to work the gross margins up even higher off of these levels but definitely not a 1-quarter phenomenon. Company is performing well.

在我們的分析師日上，我們將討論我們對未來幾年展望的展望，以及我們認為在當前水準基礎上進一步提高毛利率的機會，但這絕對不是一季的現象。公司業績良好。

Our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Question is for Gary. Gary, we've heard European Union looking into building or redeveloping fabs in Europe. There is a great deal of buzz among investors that semiconductors have become strategic. Are you engaged with any kind of discussions with Washington, D.C. on this topic?

這個問題問加里。加里，我們聽說歐盟正在考慮在歐洲建造或重建晶圓廠。投資者普遍認為半導體已成為戰略要地。您是否就此議題與華盛頓特區進行任何形式的討論？

Yes. Let me -- so I do think that everyone can see that, relative to economic growth and employment growth going forward, it's going to look different. And the digital transformation of every industry is being accelerated in the current environment that we're in. So this is very strategic from -- again, from an economic and employment growth perspective.

是的。讓我說——所以我認為大家都能看出，相對於未來的經濟成長和就業成長，情況將會有所不同。在當前環境下，各行各業的數位轉型都在加速進行。所以，從經濟和就業成長的角度來看，這具有非常重要的戰略意義。

From Applied's perspective, we have been engaged with customers and also government initiatives around investments in different locations. And what I would say from Applied's perspective, there are a couple of things to think about. One is, as these companies are moving into new locations, you have to look at the scale of the factories that they're building and -- at least what's been announced is smaller scale, somewhat less efficient. Now supply-demand eventually works itself out, but that somewhat less efficient factory size is a positive for Applied.

從應用材料公司的角度來看，我們一直與客戶以及政府就不同地區的投資計畫進行合作。從應用型大學的角度來看，有幾點需要考慮。一方面，隨著這些公司遷往新的地點，你必須看看他們正在建造的工廠的規模——至少目前公佈的規模較小，效率也略低。現在供需最終會得到解決，但這種效率稍低的工廠規模對應用材料來說是一個優勢。

And the other thing, what we've seen in every case where a company is moving from one geographic location where they have tremendous amount of talent concentration and experience that, that creates an opportunity for our service business as they move into a new location. So I think both of those things, the factory efficiency and the service business, our service agreements are much higher also in those cases. That creates an opportunity for us. This can play out over time. But certainly, I think from a strategic perspective, we can all see that the pull there is very strong.

還有一點，我們看到，在所有公司從一個擁有大量人才和經驗的地理位置搬遷到另一個地理位置的案例中，這都會為我們的服務業務創造機會，因為他們會搬遷到新的地點。所以我認為，工廠效率和服務業務這兩方面，我們的服務協議在這些情況下也更高。這為我們創造了機會。這種情況可能會隨著時間的推移而逐漸顯現。但從策略角度來看，我們都能看出那裡的吸引力非常強。

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 與 Cowen and Company 的合作。

Congrats on the strong results, especially the op margins in Jan quarter given, I think, it was a 14-week quarter. The question I had for Gary was you spoke about process control growing over 40% last year and possibly over 20% this year, which is very impressive, given you're outgrowing peers. Just kind of curious, is it all primarily coming from the new optical inspection tool? Or is e-beam, patterning adding some extra fuel to it? Or can you give some puts and takes around the PDC growth this year?

恭喜你們取得強勁的業績，特別是考慮到1月份季度有14週，其營業利潤率尤其出色。我問 Gary 的問題是，你提到去年流程控製成長了 40% 以上，今年可能成長 20% 以上，考慮到你們的成長速度超過了同行，這非常令人印象深刻。我只是有點好奇，這些現象主要都來自新的光學檢測工具嗎？或者說，電子束圖案化技術是否為此增添了一些額外的動力？或者您能否對今年PDC的成長進行一些預測？

Yes. Thank you, Krish. So really, I would say there's 3 major drivers. One is the new optical wafer inspection system where we've seen tremendous pull. And especially in foundry -- leading foundry, we've seen a tremendous ramp of that new optical wafer inspection system. And it really gives the customers tremendous performance at a much better cost of ownership so they can insert inspection points in more places in the line, and that has a big impact on the speed of the yield ramp. So that's really in the early phase of adoption, the new optical wafer inspection system.

是的。謝謝你，克里什。所以，我認為主要有三大驅動因素。其中之一是新型光學晶圓檢測系統，我們看到了巨大的市場需求。尤其是在晶圓代工廠——領先的晶圓代工廠，我們已經看到這種新型光學晶圓檢測系統得到了極大的普及。而且它確實能以更低的擁有成本為客戶帶來卓越的性能，因此他們可以在生產線的更多位置插入檢測點，這對良率提升速度產生了很大的影響。所以，這種新型光學晶圓檢測系統仍處於早期應用階段。

Our e-beam products are tremendously strong. If you look at a 2021, our e-beam growth would exceed every prior year for PDC total systems business other than 2020. So that business is very strong. We have leadership in electron optics. We've introduced a new source technology that gives us much higher resolution, much faster imaging in one segment of the EB market. We will take that core technology in electron optics across all of our different platforms, and it creates just a tremendous opportunity for us to continue to extend our leadership in the e-beam part of the market. So that's growing very fast.

我們的電子束產品強度極高。如果展望 2021 年，我們的電子束成長將超過 2020 年以外的 PDC 總系統業務以往任何一年。所以這家企業發展勢頭非常強勁。我們在電子光學領域處於領先地位。我們引入了一種新的光源技術，可以在電子束市場的某個細分領域實現更高的解析度和更快的成像速度。我們將把電子光學核心技術應用到我們所有的不同平台上，這為我們繼續擴大在電子束市場的領先地位創造了巨大的機會。所以它的成長速度非常快。

And the third thing I would say that's really important, when you think about power performance area and cost, what's really important to our customers is how fast they can drive all of those different key metrics. So accelerating, certainly for us and for them, we talk about PPACt, is enormously important. And there are cases with the -- especially our e-beam products where you can generate orders of magnitude more data in a much faster period of time.

第三點，也是非常重要的一點，當你考慮功率性能、面積和成本時，對我們的客戶來說真正重要的是，他們能夠多快地提升所有這些不同的關鍵指標。因此，加快進程，對我們和他們來說，正如我們所說的 PPACt，是非常重要的。在某些情況下，特別是使用我們的電子束產品，可以在更短的時間內產生數量級更大的數據。

So when you're thinking about optimizing the new materials, the new structures with unique imaging and algorithms to accelerate both our internal R&D at Applied and also the PPAC road map for our customers, that synergy is increasing from an overall company perspective.

因此，當您考慮優化新材料、新結構以及獨特的成像和演算法，以加速應用材料公司的內部研發以及我們客戶的 PPAC 路線圖時，從公司整體的角度來看，這種協同效應正在增強。

So again, I think the optical inspection, we're in the early phase of the adoption. E-beam, leadership in imaging. We'll extend that leadership with new capabilities. And the synergies with our overall business has never been better and never been more important for us and for our customers.

所以，我認為光學檢測技術目前還處於應用初期階段。電子束成像技術，成像領域的領導者。我們將透過新的能力來鞏固這一領先地位。而且，它與我們整體業務的協同效應從未如此之好，對我們和我們的客戶來說也從未如此重要。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自哈蘭·蘇爾與摩根大通的聯繫。

Great job on the quarterly execution. The chip shortages in the industry are across leading-edge and lagging-edge technologies, probably more so on lagging edge, just to support analog, mixed signal, microcontroller products that feed into the auto and industrial markets. And I think these customers are scrambling to add capacity. What's order activity been like for lagging-edge tools? And it looks like lagging-edge and IoT contributed about 25% of your systems business last year. Do you guys expect that mix to grow this year? And how do operating margins for these tools compare to the overall systems segment?

季度執行工作做得很好。產業晶片短缺問題遍及前沿和後進技術，後進技術可能更為嚴重，這僅僅是為了支援面向汽車和工業市場的類比、混合訊號、微控制器產品。我認為這些客戶正在爭相增加產能。落後型工具的訂單活動如何？看起來，去年落後科技和物聯網為你們的系統業務貢獻了約 25% 的份額。你們覺得今年這種組合會成長嗎？這些工具的營業利益率與整個系統部門相比如何？

Yes. Thanks, Harlan, let me just pull up some statistics on the split. So trailing-node versus leading-edge this year, we kind of see -- if it was maybe -- yes, probably a follow-through on 70-30 again this year: 70% leading-edge, 30% trailing-node geometries.

是的。謝謝哈蘭，我這就查一下分成比例的統計。所以今年的後緣節點與前緣節點，我們大概看到——如果說是的話——是的，今年可能再次延續 70-30 的比例：70% 前緣節點，30% 後緣節點幾何形狀。

As we go back in time, we've been talking about this a fair amount here over the last couple of years. So strength on the trailing-node geometries is -- has not been new. In fact, if we go back 2010 to 2020, take that 10-year window, if the foundry business over that time, in aggregate, grew just about 90% a little bit less, the trailing-node geometries have been above the foundry segment average at about just over 110% growth. Leading-edge has grown at about just over 75%. So this trend has been playing out for quite some time. We're well positioned in this segment. We're delivering key technologies, and the company is performing well. This will be very value-accretive to us as this segment of the market continues to grow and outgrow WFE.

回顧過去，我們在過去幾年已經多次討論過這個問題。因此，尾節點幾何體的強度——這並不是什麼新鮮事。事實上，如果我們回顧 2010 年至 2020 年這 10 年，雖然在此期間鑄造業務總體增長了約 90%，但尾節點幾何形狀的增長卻高於鑄造行業的平均水平，增幅略高於 110%。領先技術成長了約 75%。所以這種趨勢已經持續了相當長一段時間。我們在這領域佔據了有利地位。我們正在交付關鍵技術，公司業績良好。這將為我們帶來非常可觀的價值成長，因為該細分市場將繼續成長並超越 WFE。

Yes. Harlan, I can add just maybe a little bit to this. I think this opportunity in what people refer to as specialty semiconductor is significant. About 2 years ago, we formed an organization we call ICAPs focused on IOT, communication, auto, power, sensors, pulling together all of our capabilities across the company. And we now see this as one of the fastest-growing opportunities within Applied Materials.

是的。哈蘭，我或許可以補充一點。我認為人們所說的特種半導體領域蘊藏著巨大的機會。大約兩年前，我們成立了一個名為 ICAPs 的組織，專注於物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力、感測器，將公司所有能力整合在一起。我們現在認為這是應用材料公司成長最快的機會之一。

And when you think about what drives those markets, whether it's sensor technologies or power devices, RF, any of those types of businesses, it really plays to our leadership products: epi, PVD, CVD, implant, thermal, CMP, etch and PDC. So we really have a good position there. We pulled together an incredibly strong group within Applied, and we've also -- we also have a focused device integration team just on those particular devices. So we talk about Integrated Material Solutions, and we have some really dynamite integration engineers beyond the unit processes so that our role -- our strategic role in enabling that market has been increasing as we've refocused the organization.

當你思考是什麼驅動了這些市場，無論是感測器技術還是功率裝置、射頻，以及任何這類業務時，這實際上都與我們的領先產品息息相關：外延、PVD、CVD、注入、熱處理、CMP、蝕刻和PDC。所以我們在那裡確實處於非常有利的地位。我們在應用科技內部組建了一支非常強大的團隊，我們還專門組建了一支專注於這些特定設備的設備整合團隊。所以我們談論的是整合材料解決方案，除了單元流程之外，我們還有一些非常優秀的整合工程師，因此，隨著我們重新調整組織方向，我們在推動該市場發展方面的策略角色也在不斷增強。

So as Dan said, we're really optimistic, and we think some of these markets could be some of the fastest-growing markets over the next several years.

正如丹所說，我們非常樂觀，我們認為其中一些市場在未來幾年可能會成為成長最快的市場。

Thanks, Harlan.

謝謝你，哈蘭。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

My question's on the services business. You had a lot of upside there relative to the commentary, the guidance on the quarter. Can you talk about what's driving that? Is that telling us that customer utilizations are better? Or just what should we infer by the upside there and how sustainable those trends could be?

我的問題與服務業有關。相對於先前的評論和季度預期，你原本有很多上漲空間。你能談談是什麼原因導致這種情況嗎？這是否意味著客戶利用率更高了？或者，我們應該從這些上漲趨勢中得出什麼結論，以及這些趨勢的可持續性如何？

Yes. So thanks, Joe. So we talked about, in the prepared comments, growing this business at twice the rate of our overall installed base. So this has been playing out over multiple years. Company has done a good job outgrowing the installed base. We're outgrowing it 2:1 over an extended period of time.

是的。謝謝你，喬。因此，我們在準備好的評論中討論瞭如何以我們整體裝機量兩倍的速度發展這項業務。這件事已經持續好幾年了。公司在拓展業務方面做得很好，已經超越了現有用戶群。在相當長的一段時間內，我們的人員配置將以 2:1 的比例超出需求。

Embedded in that growth are a couple of things. Service entitlement on the new technologies is greater than what we used to ship, say, a decade ago or more. The technology is more complex. The customers' integration windows, process windows are tighter, so it requires continually tighter specs and the performance of our equipment and tighter windows. And so that creates a nice adder as well.

這種增長中包含著幾個面向。新技術提供的服務權益比我們十年前甚至更久以前提供的要多得多。這項技術更為複雜。客戶的整合窗口、工藝窗口越來越窄，因此需要不斷提高我們設備的規格和性能，並滿足越來越嚴格的窗口要求。這樣也就能創造出一個不錯的加法器了。

And then when you think about the strategy, 5 years ago, we had around 40% of our revenue covered by long-term service agreements. The vast majority of those service agreements had a tenor of about 1 year in duration. Fast-forward to today, we've penetrated over 60% of the revenue covered by long-term service agreements. 1/3 of those long-term service agreements have now stretched out their tenor beyond 1 year, so we feel really good about the value that we're adding to customers. And it's underpinning nice growth for the business. So we feel good about the strategy. We feel good about the execution of the opportunity, and it's a nice, stable source of profitability, cash flow and value creation for our shareholders. So business is performing well.

再想想我們的策略，5 年前，我們大約 40% 的收入都來自長期服務協議。絕大多數服務協議的期限約為 1 年。時至今日，我們已經佔據了長期服務協議所涵蓋收入的 60% 以上。這些長期服務協議中有 1/3 的期限已延長至 1 年以上，因此我們對我們為客戶創造的價值感到非常滿意。這為公司的良好成長奠定了基礎。所以我們對這個策略感到滿意。我們對此次機會的執行情況感到滿意，它為我們的股東帶來了穩定、可觀的獲利能力、現金流和價值創造。所以公司營運狀況良好。

I mean it seems like a really good business. I'm just surprised that there's so much upside relative to 14 weeks ago. Specifically, what was -- I guess you guided to $1.07 billion and came in at $1.155 billion. What is that upside being driven by?

我的意思是，這看起來真是一家很不錯的生意。我只是很驚訝，與 14 週前相比，現在的上漲空間竟然這麼大。具體來說，我猜你們的預期是 10.7 億美元，而實際結果是 11.55 億美元。這種上漲趨勢是由什麼因素驅動的？

So if it's a specific comment around the most recent quarter, everybody puts assumptions into their models about how you respond in a current environment where you're seeing some spikes with respect to the pandemic in different geographies and just making sure that we recovered from an execution standpoint on unknowable things as we extrapolate those data points to different populations around the globe. We went into that quarter a bit more conservative than we typically would as a result of those pandemic statistics we are seeing in the fall.

因此，如果這是針對最近一個季度的具體評論，每個人都會在他們的模型中做出假設，假設在當前環境下，不同地區的疫情出現了一些高峰，並且我們只是要確保從執行的角度出發，在將這些數據點推斷到全球不同人群時，我們已經從未知的事情中恢復過來。鑑於秋季我們看到的疫情統計數據，我們進入該季度時採取了比往常更保守的做法。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝你，喬。

Our next question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自奎因·博爾頓 (Quinn Bolton) 與 Needham & Company 的合作。

I wanted to ask you a clarification and a question. The clarification is just does your guidance incorporate any shutdown at the Austin manufacturing site due to the deep freeze going on in Texas? And then my follow-on question is a follow-on to Atif's question about the U.S. and European Union, to the extent that they provide local support for local supply chains for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, would you see that, that WFE spending being additive? Or is that just sort of a reallocation of WFE spending from what otherwise would have taken place in Asia to either the U.S. and Europe?

我想請教您一個問題並澄清一下。我想澄清的是，你們的指導意見是否涵蓋了由於德州嚴寒天氣導致奧斯汀製造工廠停產的情況？然後，我的後續問題是針對 Atif 關於美國和歐盟的問題提出的，如果它們為先進半導體製造的本地供應鏈提供本地支持，您是否認為 WFE 支出具有附加性？或者這只是將原本應該在亞洲發生的 WFE 支出重新分配到美國和歐洲？

Yes. Thanks, Quinn. So from an Austin manufacturing standpoint, I would say our business was subjected to the power fluctuations that most commercial enterprises -- manufacturing enterprises saw in Austin. What I would say is we don't see a material impact to the business. We think the weather gets better here another day, power stabilizes. We've been in close contact, as you can imagine, with our team there. We've got risk-mitigation plans in place. We've got labor prepositioned. I think we're ready to respond quickly once the power stabilizes. And the guidance we've put forward contemplates everything that's going on in that region and the way we are going to respond and drive output as quickly as possible once we get the stable power back, and so we feel good about where we sit today in support of the guide that we put out there.

是的。謝謝你，奎因。因此，從奧斯汀製造業的角度來看，我認為我們的業務受到了奧斯汀大多數商業企業——尤其是製造業企業所面臨的電力波動的影響。我想說的是，我們認為不會對業務造成實質影響。我們認為這裡天氣會再好轉一天，電力供應也會穩定下來。正如您所想，我們一直與那裡的團隊保持密切聯繫。我們已製定風險緩解計畫。我們已經預先安排好勞力了。我認為一旦電力恢復穩定，我們就能迅速做出反應。我們提出的指導方針考慮到了該地區正在發生的一切，以及一旦恢復穩定供電，我們將如何盡快做出反應並提高產量，因此我們對目前的情況感到滿意，這支持了我們發布的指導方針。

As it relates to localization of supply chains disaggregation of manufacturing footprint, here's what I would say from a business impact standpoint and a market perspective. I would say global supply is going to meet global demand. And Gary mentioned that if you've got 2 50,000 wafer start a month factories, that's less a capital-efficient manufacturing footprint than 1 large 100,000 wafer start a month facility. So while I don't think it's a step-function change from an overall wafer fab equipment standpoint, I would say that wafer fab equipment is probably positively biased to the upside as a result of those multiple smaller-scale facilities.

關於供應鏈在地化和製造足跡分散化，從業務影響和市場角度來看，我想說以下幾點。我認為全球供應將滿足全球需求。Gary 提到，如果你有兩個每月生產 5 萬片晶圓的工廠，那麼其資本效率就不如每月生產 10 萬片晶圓的大型工廠。因此，雖然我不認為從晶圓製造設備的整體角度來看這是一個階躍式變化，但我認為，由於這些規模較小的工廠的存在，晶圓製造設備可能會向上發展。

The other impact I would say from a business perspective as these supply chains localize is we've got a great global footprint of our service organization. They do great things for our customers around the globe. When our customers locate capacity in areas outside of their home geography, that's been a nice service adder. We've seen a nice service adder and increased entitlement on that capacity historically, and I would expect that to continue. So we think that that's going to be a nice tailwind for our service business as that trend materializes going forward.

從商業角度來看，隨著供應鏈在地化，另一個影響力是我們的服務機構在全球範圍內擁有了強大的影響力。他們為我們全球的客戶做了很多好事。當我們的客戶在其總部所在地以外的地區找到所需的容量時，這便是一項不錯的增值服務。從歷史上看，我們已經看到服務增幅良好，並且該容量的使用權也得到了提高，我預計這種情況還會繼續下去。因此，我們認為隨著這一趨勢的逐步實現，這將對我們的服務業務帶來良好的推動作用。

Thanks, Quinn.

謝謝你，奎因。

Our next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩‧柯蒂斯。

Dan, I just want to ask you on OpEx, and I feel a little guilty asking given the op margin performance. But considering OpEx in the quarter is up a decent amount. So just maybe what's driving that, other than, I guess, higher commissions? And then just any thoughts on the rest of the fiscal year?

丹，我只是想問你一些關於營運支出（OpEx）的問題，考慮到營運利潤率的表現，我問這個問題感覺有點不好意思。但考慮到本季的營運支出，成長幅度相當可觀。那麼，除了更高的佣金之外，究竟是什麼原因導致了這種情況呢？那麼，對於本財年剩餘的時間，您還有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. So a couple of things, and thanks for the question, Blayne. Just a couple of things on the transition from Q1 to Q2. What I would observe about Q1 is as we get a holiday shutdown in that period at the end of a calendar year, you also have partial impact of annual merit increases, 1-month impact. As we move into Q2, you no longer have a shutdown, and you get a full quarter impact of merit increases. So there's an embedded cost escalator in that time frame.

是的。有幾點要說，謝謝你的提問，布萊恩。關於從第一季過渡到第二季度，有幾點需要說明。關於第一季度，我想指出的是，由於日曆年末的這段時間有假期停工，年度績效加薪也會受到部分影響，影響持續一個月。進入第二季後，停工期將不再影響績效薪資的成長，您將獲得完整的季度績效薪資成長。所以，在這個時間內，成本會不斷上漲。

The other thing I would say, and Gary spent a lot of time talking about this, there is a very fundamental transition happening in our industry. Traditional Moore's Law is shrinking -- I mean traditional Moore's Law 2D shrinks are beginning to hit a wall. The industry is pivoting to a new playbook, and we have a meaningful key enablement role to play in each element of that new playbook. We are going to be disciplined, but we are going to invest to grow. We're going to drive innovation. We're going to be a key enabler of our customers' road maps.

我還要補充一點，Gary 也花了很多時間談論這一點，那就是我們這個產業正在發生一場非常根本性的改變。傳統的摩爾定律正在縮小——我的意思是傳統的摩爾定律二維縮小開始遇到瓶頸。產業正在轉向新的發展模式，而我們在新模式的每個環節中都將發揮重要的關鍵賦能作用。我們會保持自律，但也會投資成長。我們將推動創新。我們將成為客戶發展路線圖的關鍵推動者。

From a discipline standpoint, I think the company has got a good track record. From an OpEx perspective, close to 70% of what we spend is fuel for growth, R&D with pretty tight containment from a discretionary spend standpoint. So we're close to 70% of all OpEx goes to R&D.

從紀律角度來看，我認為該公司有著良好的記錄。從營運支出角度來看，我們近 70% 的支出用於成長和研發，而可自由支配的支出則控制得相當嚴格。因此，我們近 70% 的營運支出都用於研發。

And then from an OpEx leverage perspective, an observation I would make is -- and this goes to growing the company in a very disciplined manner, delivering innovation but doing it in an efficient manner. Over the last 12 months, we've got 340 basis points of OpEx leverage that we've delivered. And if I take it out to 8 quarters, we've got to 460 basis points of OpEx leverage that we've delivered to the P&L. So I think the company has demonstrated a great track record of delivering these innovations but doing it in an efficient way that drives significant value for shareholders. So we feel good about it, Blayne.

從營運支出槓桿的角度來看，我想指出的是——這與以非常嚴謹的方式發展公司、實現創新以及以高效的方式進行創新息息相關。過去 12 個月，我們實現了 340 個基點的營運支出槓桿效應。如果把時間拉長到 8 個季度，我們已經為損益表帶來了 460 個基點的營運支出槓桿。所以我認為，該公司在實現這些創新方面已經展現出了良好的業績記錄，而且是以高效的方式實現的，從而為股東創造了巨大的價值。所以我們對此感覺很好，布萊恩。

Thanks, Blayne.

謝謝你，布萊恩。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

Gary, I guess I had a longer-term question for you. So we're going to see gate-all-around maybe late next year but definitely in 2023. And then we go to FinFETs maybe in '24 or definitely '25, which seems like a long way away, but it's not really that far out there. And there seems to kind of be a broad view that litho is going to be a big headwind for the films companies like you. But it actually seems like the same thing could happen in logic that happened in NAND, where you start to stack transistors so that you could capture the incremental dollars versus litho if you look out, say, 3 to 5 years. So can you just kind of talk about what's happening in logic?

加里，我有個比較長期的問題想問你。所以，我們可能會在明年年底看到環形閘門，但肯定會在 2023 年看到。然後我們可能會在 2024 年或 2025 年迎來 FinFET 技術，這看起來似乎很遙遠，但實際上並沒有那麼遙遠。而且似乎很多人認為，膠印技術將對像你們這樣的電影公司造成很大的阻礙。但實際上，邏輯電路領域似乎也可能發生與 NAND 快閃記憶體領域類似的情況，即透過堆疊晶體管來獲取相對於光刻技術的增量收益，例如，如果展望未來 3 到 5 年的話。那麼，您能簡單談談邏輯方面發生了什麼嗎？

Thanks for the question, Tim. So what I would say, I meet these CEOs and R&D leaders for leading foundry and logic on a very regular basis, actually more often now than I did before the pandemic because we're doing all of this virtual. I deeply believe -- and you can see even this week, there was one of our leading customers talking about how they're driving their technology road maps going forward. And it's really around the 5 elements that we've been talking about: the new structures; new chip architectures; everybody is designing their own application-specific chips; new materials; new ways to shrink. I've talked about packaging and the growth there, but I think we're just in a tremendous position.

謝謝你的提問，提姆。所以我想說的是，我經常與這些領先的晶圓代工和邏輯晶片製造商的首席執行官和研發負責人會面，實際上現在比疫情前更頻繁，因為我們現在都在進行虛擬會議。我深信——而且你也可以看到，就在本週，我們的一位重要客戶談到了他們如何推進未來的技術路線圖。而這一切其實都圍繞著我們一直在討論的 5 個要素：新的結構；新的晶片架構；每個人都在設計自己的專用晶片；新材料；新的縮小尺寸的方法。我之前談到了包裝及其成長，但我認為我們現在處於非常有利的地位。

And when you think about what's going to drive power performance and cost going forward, there's no question, it's about these new structures and these new materials. And when you look at really all of the different markets, you talked about the new transistor structures going forward, whether -- people call gate-all-around or nano sheets or also the wiring, the resistance in the wiring, there's tremendous focus in those areas because that is really what enables power and performance going forward. So we're just in a really tremendous position.

當你思考未來哪些因素將推動電力性能和成本下降時，毫無疑問，關鍵在於這些新結構和新材料。當你真正審視所有不同的市場時，你會談到未來新的電晶體結構，無論是人們所說的環柵結構還是奈米片結構，以及佈線、佈線電阻，這些領域都備受關注，因為這才是未來實現功率和性能的關鍵所在。所以我們現在處境非常有利。

When you think about the materials that are needed to create those nano sheets or the wiring or 3D DRAM or any of those big inflections that are going forward in the future, we just have, by far, the best portfolio of materials that creates those structures.

當你想到製造奈米薄片、佈線、3D DRAM 或未來任何重大變革所需的材料時，我們目前擁有製造這些結構的最佳材料組合。

Then you think about shaping the structures. We have strength in conductor etch. We're -- we've certainly had a strong position in memory. We're growing in foundry/logic. You'll see our share continue to grow there. Shaping with the Selectra product is also really important for nano sheets and for other new structures, the modification of those different structures and also accelerating the time to market. I talked about the synergies with our PDC and especially our e-beam business. When I'm building this new transistor, if I can see the materials -- residual materials inside that structure as I'm driving the R&D versus having to cross-section one particular transistor and look inside that, their learning rates go up by orders of magnitude. So those unique imaging capabilities, combined with the unique capabilities in creating and shaping and modifying those structures, again, I just -- if you look at what's being presented by our leading customers, even this week, you'll see exactly aligns to this new playbook and enabling capabilities for Applied. So again, I've never been more excited about our opportunities to enable the road map.

然後你考慮如何塑造這些結構。我們在導體蝕刻方面具有優勢。我們——我們一直以來在記憶領域都佔有重要的地位。我們在代工/邏輯領域不斷發展壯大。你會看到我們在那裡的市場份額持續增長。使用 Selectra 產品進行成型對於奈米片和其他新結構也非常重要，它可以改變這些不同的結構，並加快產品上市速度。我談到了與我們的PDC，特別是與我們的電子束業務的協同效應。當我在製造這種新型晶體管時，如果我能夠在研發過程中看到該結構內部的材料——殘留材料，而不是必須對一個特定的晶體管進行橫截面分析並觀察其內部，那麼他們的學習速度將提高幾個數量級。因此，這些獨特的成像能力，加上創建、塑造和修改這些結構的獨特能力，再次強調——如果你看看我們領先的客戶本週展示的內容，你會發現這與應用材料公司的新策略和賦能能力完全吻合。所以，我再次對我們實現路線圖的機會感到無比興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇。

Yes. I was curious in your WFE outlook for this year, what's your assumption around domestic China? And does your WFE outlook for this year include the assumption that we don't see any license from customers that are required by the government right now?

是的。我對您今年的WFE展望很好奇，您對中國國內市場有何看法？您對今年WFE的展望是否包含這樣的假設：目前我們不會收到任何政府要求的客戶許可證？

Yes. Joe, thanks for your question. So from a domestic China standpoint, we think we ended the year 2020 around $10 billion. We think we're up a few billion off of that level. So we'll see this year what we've been seeing for several years now, which is slow, steady ecosystem development. You're going to see some investment in technology road maps and still some pretty modest capacity additions that sit behind those technology road maps.

是的。喬，謝謝你的提問。因此，從中國國內市場的角度來看，我們認為在 2020 年結束時，中國國內市場規模約為 100 億美元。我們認為我們比那個水平高出了幾十億。所以今年我們將看到過去幾年一直在發生的情況，那就是緩慢而穩定的生態系統發展。你會看到一些對技術路線圖的投資，以及一些相當有限的產能成長，這些成長是這些技術路線圖的支撐。

And then from a licensing standpoint, just given where we sit in the process, we think it's prudent to forecast and guide revenue and market sizing, assuming the licenses do not come through. And when we receive the licenses, then we'll adjust the expectations. I would expect revenue to go up, and I would expect the market sizing to go up. But the current forecast expectations of greater than $70 billion this calendar year for the overall market size does not assume that those licenses come through. That will be upside to the numbers we've talked about.

從許可的角度來看，鑑於我們目前所處的階段，我們認為謹慎的做法是預測和指導收入和市場規模，假設許可最終未能獲得批准。等我們收到許可證後，我們會調整預期。我預期收入會成長，市場規模也會擴大。但目前對今年整體市場規模超過 700 億美元的預測預期，並不假設這些許可證都能最終發放。這將對我們討論過的數字帶來利多。

Thanks, Joe. And operator, we have time for 2 more questions, please.

謝謝你，喬。接線員，我們還有時間再問兩個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的米奇·史蒂夫斯。

Obviously, a very great quarter and great guide. My only little nitpick here, just on the display business, I feel like every quarter, we kind of try to call a bottom here. But then you made comments about all of the segments kind of being up in the second half. Can you maybe just help us understand what the magnitude is at for the display business? And then secondly, if you've got any sort of like actual visibility into that and confidence around display being up in the second half of the year.

顯然，這是一份非常棒的季度報告和一份非常棒的指南。我唯一的小意見是，就展示業務而言，我覺得每個季度我們都試圖預測底部。但你後來評論說，所有環節都在下半場有所提升。您能否幫我們了解一下顯示器產業的規模？其次，如果你對下半年的展示活動有任何實際的了解和信心的話。

Yes. So a couple of things on display. I think we've been very consistent in this business over time. We know that from quarter-to-quarter, this is a business that will bounce around a little bit. But we've been saying now for many quarters that the sizing in 2021 from an overall market spend perspective, as well as the proportion of spend in TV, in mobile, is going to look and feel a lot like 2020. And that's exactly what we see playing out.

是的。所以展出了兩樣東西。我認為我們在這個行業一直以來都非常穩定。我們知道，這個產業的業績每季都會有些波動。但我們已經連續多個季度表示，從整體市場支出角度來看，2021 年的規模以及電視和行動裝置的支出比例，都將與 2020 年非常相似。而這正是我們看到的實際情況。

The implication for our business revenue, and we've been saying this for many quarters now, the revenue that we see in our display business in fiscal 2021 is going to be very similar to what we produced in fiscal 2020. And so I think that gives you the math. You know what we've done in fiscal Q1. You know what we just guided to in fiscal Q2. That gives you a sense of the step-up that we see in the back half of the year.

這對我們的業務收入產生了影響，我們已經連續幾個季度這麼說了，我們預計 2021 財年顯示器業務的收入將與 2020 財年的收入非常相似。所以我覺得這樣就得到計算結果了。你們知道我們在第一財季做了什麼。你知道我們剛剛給的第二財季預期目標是什麼。這讓你感受到我們在下半年看到的進步。

And then as we look forward into 2022, we are monitoring a number of green shoots. We talked about on the last earnings call, our confidence interval around them continue to increase, and the confidence interval around 2022 being a robust investment point in the cycle continues to increase. So we feel good about where we stand, growing off of the guide we just gave in fiscal Q2.

展望 2022 年，我們正在關註一些積極的跡象。我們在上次財報電話會議上討論過，我們對這些預測的置信區間持續擴大，而對 2022 年作為週期中穩健投資點的置信區間也持續擴大。因此，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意，並在此基礎上繼續發展，這得益於我們剛剛發布的第二財季指導方針。

From an order standpoint -- we can see it from an order standpoint growth into the back half of the year, and we can also see it from a customer deposit perspective. And so we feel good about how we're shaping expectations around this market, and I've got no anxiety given what we see and where we sit around the second half being stronger than the first half in that business.

從訂單的角度來看－我們可以看到訂單量在下半年有所成長，我們也可以從顧客存款的角度來看。因此，我們對如何塑造市場預期感到滿意，鑑於我們所看到的以及我們在該業務下半年所處的位置，我對下半年業績強於上半年沒有任何擔憂。

Thanks, Mitch.

謝謝你，米奇。

Our last question comes from the line of Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題來自Patrick Ho和Stifel的合作方。

Congrats on a nice finish to the calendar year. Gary, maybe just to follow up on some of the questions and given the strength that you had in the advance packaging business that looks like it's another growth opportunity for you, are you able to leverage the products from your "leadership and existing portfolio?" Or are you also developing new products given the changes that are going on in advance packaging, particularly as they become more front-end manufacturing-like?

恭喜你圓滿結束了這一年。Gary，我想就一些問題做個後續探討。鑑於您在先進包裝業務方面的優勢，這似乎又是一個成長機會，您能否利用您「領導地位和現有產品組合」的優勢？或者，考慮到先進包裝領域正在發生的變化，特別是隨著其越來越像前端製造，您是否也在開發新產品？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Patrick. So I'd start off by saying we've talked about this as being 1 of the 5 key drivers for the PPAC road map going forward. And if you look at what leading customers are talking about, packaging is incredibly important for power and performance and cost. So for me, personally, I've engaged much more so with the R&D leaders in this particular industry than I ever was.

是的。謝謝你的提問，派崔克。首先我想說的是，我們已經討論過這是 PPAC 未來發展路線圖的 5 個關鍵驅動因素之一。如果你看看領先的客戶都在談論什麼，你會發現包裝對於功率、性能和成本都非常重要。所以就我個人而言，我與這個特定產業的研發領導者們的交流比以往任何時候都多得多。

Relative to your question about existing products versus new products, I would say it's both. If you look at wafer-level packaging, we're #1 in wafer-level packaging; advanced wafer-level packaging with PVD, CVD, CMP, plating. We have a new Sym3 via etcher also, where we won one of the largest -- one of our largest customers in that business. So we have all of those combinations of products in packaging.

關於你提出的現有產品與新產品的問題，我認為兩者都是。如果看晶圓級封裝，我們在晶圓級封裝領域中排名第一；採用 PVD、CVD、CMP、電鍍等先進晶圓級封裝技術。我們還透過蝕刻機獲得了一台新的 Sym3，並贏得了業內最大的客戶之一。所以我們有所有這些產品的組合包裝。

And we also announced recently a new integrated hybrid bonding system working with another company that is really important. And we have very strong pull from every one of the -- our leading customers with that new technology. So again, it's a combination of both, where we're innovating with our existing products, also looking at accelerating the big inflections in packaging, and hybrid bonding is one example of that.

而且我們最近也宣布與另一家公司合作推出新的整合式混合黏合系統，這非常重要。我們所有主要客戶都對這項新技術有著非常強烈的需求。所以，這又是兩者的結合，我們一方面在現有產品上進行創新，另一方面也在尋求加速包裝領域的重大變革，混合黏合就是其中的一個例子。

So I think it's just a tremendous opportunity for the company. I think this is going to become more important as we go forward, and we're in a unique position with the combinations of capabilities that we have.

所以我認為這對公司來說是一個絕佳的機會。我認為隨著時間的推移，這一點會變得越來越重要，而且我們擁有的各種能力組合使我們處於獨特的地位。

Thank you, Patrick, for your question. And Dan, would you like to help us wrap the call?

謝謝你的提問，派崔克。丹，你願意幫我們結束這通通話嗎？

Yes. Sure, Mike. Thanks. So as I look at this quarter, a few things stand out for me: first, the growing strength of our end markets; second, really strong outperformance in calendar 2020; and I guess third, an even better setup for Applied as we look forward into 2021. I see strength throughout the year. And that includes fiscal second half growing across all 3 reporting segments: Semi Systems, AGS and display. I really like the gross margin improvement. It's been a lot of hard work, especially during COVID-19, and I really want to thank all of our teams one more time for this great progress. We all hope that the regulatory decision on Kokusai goes in our favor. And Gary and I, along with the rest of the management team, look forward to seeing you in about 6 weeks during the investor meeting.

是的。當然可以，麥克。謝謝。所以，回顧本季度，有幾點讓我印象深刻：首先，我們的終端市場日益強勁；其次，2020 年的業績表現非常出色；第三，展望 2021 年，Applied 的發展前景更加光明。我全年都看到了它的優勢。這其中包括下半年所有三個報告部門（半導體系統、AGS 和顯示器）的成長。我非常滿意毛利率的提升。這其中付出了很多努力，尤其是在新冠疫情期間，我再次衷心感謝我們所有團隊的巨大進步。我們都希望有關國際公司的監管決定對我們有利。我和 Gary 以及其他管理團隊成員期待在大約 6 週後的投資者會議上與您見面。

Mike, let's close the call now.

麥克，我們結束通話吧。

Okay. Thanks, Dan. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call will be available on our website by 5:00 Pacific Time, and we'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。謝謝你，丹。感謝各位今天蒞臨現場。電話會議的錄音將於太平洋時間下午 5:00 在我們的網站上提供，感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。