應用材料 (AMAT) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。 （操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將會議交給公司副總裁麥可‧沙利文先生。請您開始吧，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Applied's Second Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings Call, which is being recorded. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝各位參加應用材料公司2020財年第二季財報電話會議，本次會議正在錄音。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長加里·迪克森，以及我們的財務長丹·杜恩。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致我們的實際業績與預期存在差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的信息，請參閱Applied公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-Q表和8-K表文件。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings presentation, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議也包含非GAAP財務指標。與GAAP指標的調節表可在今天的盈利新聞稿和我們的季度盈利演示文稿中找到，這些文件可在我們網站appliedmaterials.com的投資者關係頁面上查閱。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike. I'd like to start today's call by addressing the topic at the forefront of everyone's mind, the COVID-19 pandemic, which has created unprecedented challenges around the world. My thoughts and best wishes go out to all of you and especially those whose families have been directly affected by the illness.

謝謝，麥克。我想先談談大家最關心的議題——新冠肺炎疫情，這場疫情為全世界帶來了前所未有的挑戰。我向大家致以最誠摯的慰問和祝福，尤其要向那些家人受到疫情直接影響的人們表達我的慰問和祝福。

As the situation has evolved over the past several months, our actions at Applied Materials have been guided by 2 key principles: first, maintaining the trust of our employees, customers, suppliers and partners; and second, focusing on driving initiatives that will allow us to emerge stronger over the longer term. As always, our #1 priority is the health and well-being of our employees and their families. Our workforce remains highly productive. Many are working effectively from home and for those working on site, we've implemented strict safety protocols in close collaboration with our medical advisers, customers and suppliers.

過去幾個月來，隨著疫情情勢的發展，應用材料公司始終遵循兩大關鍵原則：首先，維護員工、客戶、供應商和合作夥伴的信任；其次，著力推進各項舉措，助力公司實現長遠發展，變得更加強大。一如既往，員工及其家人的健康與福祉是我們的首要任務。我們的員工隊伍保持著高效率的工作狀態。許多員工在家中有效地辦公，而對於那些在現場工作的員工，我們與醫療顧問、客戶和供應商密切合作，實施了嚴格的安全規程。

In our factories, labs and logistics centers, we've changed physical layouts to allow for social distancing, introduced enhanced cleaning and sanitation procedures, implemented health screenings and mandated the use of personal protective equipment. All our employees and contingent workers have continued to receive full pay, and we've introduced additional incentives and benefits for employees supporting our critical operations.

在我們的工廠、實驗室和物流中心，我們調整了實體佈局以保持社交距離，加強了清潔和消毒程序，實施了健康篩檢，並強制要求使用個人防護裝備。我們所有員工和臨時工都繼續領取全額工資，我們還為支持關鍵營運的員工提供了額外的激勵和福利。

While we've been working through certain supply chain constraints, we have remained laser-focused on the needs of our customers and doing what it takes to keep their factories running smoothly and their R&D programs on track.

儘管我們一直在努力克服一些供應鏈方面的限制，但我們始終專注於客戶的需求，並盡一切努力確保他們的工廠順利運轉，研發項目按計劃進行。

Across the company, I see amazing examples of our manufacturing, logistics and field operations teams going above and beyond to keep our customers and the industry moving forward in a difficult set of circumstances. We're also defining new ways of working with customers that not only provide solutions today but will also create significant benefits over the long term.

在公司各個層面，我看到了我們製造、物流和現場營運團隊的卓越表現，他們竭盡全力，確保我們的客戶和產業在艱難的環境下繼續向前發展。我們也正在探索與客戶合作的新模式，這些模式不僅能提供當下的解決方案，還能帶來長遠的顯著效益。

Finally, in line with Applied's long-held values to make a positive contribution to the communities where we live and work, we've created a global charitable COVID fund. The purpose of this fund is to address immediate humanitarian needs and combat long-term effects on local communities and the nonprofit sector. We've also donated masks and equipment to medical facilities. And in addition, there have been numerous employee-driven initiatives across the company. It's inspiring to see these employees stepping forward to help, volunteering their time, skills and resources to demonstrate our shared passion to make a difference.

最後，秉承Applied長期以來對我們生活和工作所在社區做出積極貢獻的價值觀，我們設立了全球新冠疫情慈善基金。該基金旨在滿足當前的緊急人道需求，並應對疫情對當地社區和非營利組織造成的長期影響。我們也向醫療機構捐贈了口罩和醫療設備。此外，公司內部也湧現許多由員工自發性組織的公益活動。看到這些員工挺身而出，貢獻時間、技能和資源，展現我們共同的奉獻精神，為社會帶來正面改變，令人深受鼓舞。

Now let me turn to the agenda for today's call. I'll begin with a summary of our second quarter performance and near-term outlook. Then I'll provide a longer-term perspective on our markets, and I'll finish with a summary of our strategy, highlighting some of our recent accomplishments. Later, Dan will give more color on our financial results, operational performance and business environment.

現在讓我來談談今天電話會議的議程。首先，我將概述我們第二季的業績和近期展望。然後，我將從更長期的角度分析我們的市場，最後總結我們的策略，並重點介紹我們近期取得的一些成就。之後，丹將更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現、營運表現和商業環境。

Starting with our near-term business outlook, demand from our semiconductor customers remain strong. In fiscal Q2, our financial performance was negatively affected by our ability to ship systems to customers as shelter-in-place and lockdown orders impacted some of our suppliers' operations, particularly in the Bay Area and Malaysia. However, we're in a much better position today. Thanks to the flexibility in our global operations footprint, we've been able to make adjustments. And we continue to work closely with our suppliers to ensure they can meet our needs.

就近期業務展望而言，半導體客戶的需求依然強勁。第二財季，由於居家隔離和封鎖令影響了部分供應商的運營，尤其是在灣區和馬來西亞，導致我們向客戶交付系統的能力受到影響，財務表現受到負面影響。然而，目前我們的處境已大為改善。由於採用全球營運佈局的靈活性，我們得以做出相應調整。我們將繼續與供應商緊密合作，確保他們能夠滿足我們的需求。

Our supply chain remains a critical area of focus as we enter our third quarter with record orders and a record backlog for our semiconductor and service businesses combined. In terms of the semiconductor industry environment, I will focus my comments on what we currently see in the market and what we're hearing from customers.

隨著我們進入第三季度，半導體和服務業務的訂單和積壓訂單均創歷史新高，供應鏈仍然是我們關注的重點領域。關於半導體產業環境，我將重點談談我們目前在市場上的觀察以及我們從客戶那裡了解到的情況。

In foundry/logic, demand at the leading edge remains very healthy, with a strong commitment from these customers to build out their factories and push forward with their development road maps. However, we're seeing some pockets of weakness in specialty markets, mainly as a result of a pullback in the automotive and industrial sectors.

在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域，尖端技術的需求仍然十分強勁，這些客戶堅定地致力於擴建工廠並推進其研發路線圖。然而，我們看到一些專業市場出現疲軟，這主要是由於汽車和工業領域的萎縮所致。

In memory, there are no major changes to the outlook we provided last quarter. We continue to see a positive progression in the market with inventory levels approaching normal and improvements in pricing trends. As a result, we're seeing incremental strength in investment by memory customers as we move through the year.

記憶體市場方面，我們與上季提供的展望基本一致，沒有重大變化。市場持續向好發展，庫存水準接近正常，價格趨勢也有所改善。因此，我們預期隨著時間的推移，記憶體客戶的投資力度將逐步增強。

Based on the visibility that we have today, underlying demand for semiconductor equipment is robust. And even when COVID-related effects are taken into account, we still believe that our semiconductor business can deliver strong double-digit growth for our fiscal year.

根據我們目前掌握的信息，半導體設備的潛在需求仍然強勁。即使考慮到新冠疫情的影響，我們仍然相信，本財年半導體業務能夠實現兩位數的強勁成長。

In display, we expect our FY '20 revenues to be close to FY '19 as the industry navigates the bottom of this spending cycle. Our display business remains solidly profitable even as we invest in next-generation products, ready for when the market picks up.

在顯示器業務方面，我們預計2020財年的營收將與2019財年相近，因為整個產業正處於本輪消費週期的低谷期。儘管我們正投資研發下一代產品，為市場回暖做好準備，但我們的顯示器業務仍保持著穩健的獲利能力。

Looking further out, we're well aware of global economic concerns. While I'm not going to speculate on possible macro scenarios, I will share some of the key assumptions that we're using to guide our strategy, which are based on carefully monitoring market indicators and staying very close to our customers. Clearly, consumer spending is a potential headwind for many sectors, including the electronics industry. At the same time, the global pandemic is acting as an accelerator for key technology inflections that were already underway.

展望未來，我們深知全球經濟情勢令人擔憂。雖然我不會對可能的宏觀經濟狀況進行推測，但我會分享一些我們用於指導策略的關鍵假設，這些假設是基於對市場指標的密切監測以及與客戶的緊密溝通。顯然，消費支出對包括電子產業在內的許多產業都構成潛在的阻力。同時，全球疫情正在加速一些關鍵技術的變革，而這些變革原本就已經在進行中。

Working from home, learning from home and e-commerce are driving investments in cloud data centers and communications infrastructure. We expect companies to build stronger business continuity plans, which will include geographic redundancy and increased use of automation and IoT technologies. And the adoption of AI and big data remains nondiscretionary for many

居家辦公、居家學習和電子商務正在推動對雲端資料中心和通訊基礎設施的投資。我們預計企業將制定更完善的業務連續性計劃，其中包括地域冗餘以及更多地使用自動化和物聯網技術。對許多企業而言，採用人工智慧和大數據仍然是勢在必行的。

companies. As I've said before, these game-changing technologies will transform entire industries, and there will be big winners and losers through the transition. My personal view is that we will see significant and permanent changes in the way companies operate and prioritize their investments. In fact, this is already happening in our business and the ways we are working with customers.

正如我之前所說，這些顛覆性技術將改變整個產業，轉型過程中必將出現大贏家和大輸家。我個人認為，我們將看到企業運作方式和投資優先順序發生重大且持久的變化。事實上，這種情況已經在我們的業務以及我們與客戶的合作方式中出現。

Over the past several years, we made significant investments in state-of-the-art digital infrastructure sensors in metrology, data science, machine learning and simulation. The combination of these technologies enables us to reduce product development cycles, speed up transfer of new technologies from lab to fab and optimize cost, output and yield for our customers in volume production.

過去幾年，我們對計量、數據科學、機器學習和模擬等領域的尖端數位基礎設施感測器進行了大量投資。這些技術的結合使我們能夠縮短產品開發週期，加快新技術從實驗室到工廠的轉化，並優化大量生產中客戶的成本、產量和良率。

In the past few months, our field and R&D teams have been working with customers to further expand secure data sharing, to enhance remote support and accelerate the deployment of these powerful new tools. In our own labs, we also have many examples of R&D teams increasing utilization and productivity of lab assets by applying creative new strategies for remote operations.

過去幾個月，我們的現場團隊和研發團隊一直與客戶緊密合作，進一步拓展安全數據共享，增強遠端支持，並加速部署這些強大的新工具。在我們自己的實驗室裡，也有許多研發團隊透過應用創新的遠端操作策略，提高了實驗室資產的利用率和生產力。

While near-term actions are being driven by necessity, the long-term benefits of working this way are compelling as they provide significant time to market and cost advantages for Applied and our customers. Our long-term perspective about AI and big data shaping the next decade is unchanged, and we see strong potential for certain elements of these inflections to scale faster than previously expected.

儘管近期的行動是出於無奈之舉，但這種工作方式的長期效益顯而易見，因為它能為應用科技及其客戶帶來顯著的上市時間和成本優勢。我們對人工智慧和大數據將塑造未來十年的長期願景仍然不變，我們看到，這些變革中的某些要素具有比預期更快的成長潛力。

As I've said before, to enable these new computing systems and unlock the potential of AI technologies, major advances in the power, performance and area cost, or PPAC, of semiconductor devices are needed. Based on recent input from customers, we've updated our PPAC framework to PPACt, where T stands for time to market, acknowledging the enormous value of speed.

正如我之前所說，為了實現這些新型運算系統並釋放人工智慧技術的潛力，半導體元件的功耗、效能和麵積成本（PPAC）必須取得重大突破。根據客戶近期的回饋，我們已將 PPAC 框架更新為 PPACt，其中 T 代表上市時間，這充分體現了速度的巨大價值。

Applied has by far the largest, broadest portfolio of technologies and products to accelerate the PPACt playbook, which spans creating, shaping, modifying, analyzing and connecting structures and devices. We're the only company with process and metrology under one roof, and we have highly differentiated silicon and packaging lab capabilities. As a result, we have significant advantage in our ability to accelerate new PPACt innovations for the semiconductor ecosystem. The capabilities we have built and the multiyear investments we have made are yielding results. According to VLSI Research's recently published report, we outperformed the market in both semiconductor equipment and services last year. Our performance in deposition technology was especially strong, with our PVD business gaining 7 points of share. We also have great momentum in metrology and inspection. Our process, diagnostics and control group delivered record revenue in the first half of the year. One of the key contributors to this record performance is our new optical inspection system that we will be officially launching later this year.;

應用材料公司擁有迄今為止規模最大、覆蓋範圍最廣的技術和產品組合，能夠加速PPACt（製程、實體、應用與控制）策略的實施，涵蓋結構和裝置的創建、成型、修改、分析和連接。我們是唯一一家將製程和計量技術整合於同一屋簷下的公司，並擁有高度差異化的矽和封裝實驗室能力。因此，我們在加速半導體生態系中PPACt創新方面擁有顯著優勢。我們已建立的能力和多年來的投資正在取得成效。根據VLSI Research最近發布的報告，去年我們在半導體設備和服務領域都超越了市場平均。我們在沉積技術領域的表現特別強勁，PVD業務的市佔率成長了7個百分點。我們在計量和檢測領域也保持著強勁的發展勢頭。我們的製程、診斷和控制部門在今年上半年實現了創紀錄的收入。這項業績的關鍵因素之一是我們將在今年稍後正式推出的新型光學檢測系統。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, I will quickly summarize. First, as we navigate the challenges created by COVID-19, we've rallied the company around 2 guiding principles: maintain the trust of employees, customers, suppliers and partners; and focus on driving actions that ensure Applied Materials emerges stronger over the long term. Second, while we're mindful of potential macroeconomic headwinds, based on what we see and hear today, semiconductor equipment demand remains robust, and our supply chain is getting healthier. Third, we remain fully committed to our strategy to accelerate the PPACt playbook and our pipeline of new innovative products and integrated processes has never been better.

在將電話交給丹之前，我先做個簡要總結。首先，面對新冠疫情帶來的挑戰，我們公司始終秉持兩大指導原則：維護員工、客戶、供應商和合作夥伴的信任；以及專注於採取行動，確保應用材料公司在長期發展中保持強勁勢頭。其次，儘管我們意識到潛在的宏觀經濟逆風，但根據我們目前所見所聞，半導體設備需求依然強勁，我們的供應鏈也不斷改善。第三，我們將繼續全力推動PPACt策略，我們不斷湧現的創新產品和整合製程也從未如此豐富。

Now I will turn the call over to Dan.

現在我將把通話交給丹。

Thanks, Gary. Today, I'll summarize our second quarter results and activities, give you an update on the environment and share our current expectations for the second half of our fiscal year.

謝謝，加里。今天，我將總結我們第二季的業績和活動，向大家介紹當前形勢，並分享我們對下半年財年的預期。

As a reminder, on March 23, we suspended our Q2 guidance because the global response to COVID-19 was creating significant challenges across our supply chain, manufacturing operations and logistics. Due to the extreme uncertainty, we also decided to borrow against our revolving credit facility. We promised to provide our investors with an update on this earnings webcast, and I'll do that in a moment.

再次提醒，3月23日，我們暫停發布第二季業績指引，因為全球應對新冠肺炎疫情的措施給我們的供應鏈、生產營運和物流帶來了巨大挑戰。鑑於情勢高度不確定，我們也決定動用循環信貸額度。我們承諾在本次財報網路直播中向投資者提供最新進展，稍後我將進行報告。

This afternoon, we announced our Q2 results, which were below our original guidance, but solid, considering the extreme challenges our teams faced due to COVID. I'm proud of our employees for putting health and safety first and still doing everything possible to support our customers, both in keeping our factories running and by keeping our R&D programs moving.

今天下午，我們公佈了第二季業績，雖然低於先前預期，但考慮到新冠疫情給團隊帶來的巨大挑戰，業績依然穩健。我為我們的員工感到驕傲，他們始終將健康和安全放在首位，並竭盡所能地支持客戶，確保工廠正常運轉，研發專案持續進行。

Despite the incremental challenges we experienced in the last 6 weeks of our quarter, we delivered AGS and display revenue that was higher than our original expectations in February. Our semi systems revenue was below our original outlook, and that was entirely due to COVID-related supply constraints. And demand remains strong. And while the environment remains fluid, we exited the quarter with the second-highest company backlog in our history and record backlog for semi systems plus AGS combined.

儘管本季最後六週我們遇到了一些挑戰，但2月AGS和顯示器業務的收入仍高於預期。半導體系統業務的收入低於預期，這完全是由於新冠疫情導致的供應限制。目前市場需求依然強勁。雖然市場環境仍不明朗，但本季末我們仍維持了公司史上第二高的訂單積壓量，半導體系統和AGS業務的訂單積壓總量也創下歷史新高。

For the company as a whole, in Q2, on a year-over-year basis, we grew revenue by 12%, increased non-GAAP operating profit by 23% and grew non-GAAP EPS by 27% to $0.89. During the quarter, we returned $392 million to shareholders in buybacks and dividends and announced a dividend increase of nearly 5%. We ended Q2 with nearly $7.4 billion on the balance sheet, including $1.5 billion in credit facility proceeds.

公司整體而言，第二季營收年增12%，非GAAP營業利潤成長23%，非GAAP每股盈餘成長27%至0.89美元。本季度，我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了3.92億美元，並宣布股息成長近5%。第二季末，公司資產負債表上的現金餘額接近74億美元，其中包括15億美元的信貸額度。

Now I'll share my assessment of the COVID environment, which includes several encouraging developments. Our industry has been designated critical infrastructure in many parts of the world. All of our suppliers have now been able to resume operations, and they are recovering to normal output. We've been in very close communications with our customers, and their demand indications remain strong. We're mindful of the macroeconomic impacts of COVID, including job losses in the consumer and industrial sectors of the global economy. But governments have provided strong financial support to workers, businesses and the banking system.

現在我將分享我對新冠疫情情勢的評估，其中包含一些令人鼓舞的進展。我們的行業在世界許多地區已被指定為關鍵基礎設施。我們所有的供應商都已恢復運營，並且正在逐步恢復到正常產量。我們一直與客戶保持密切溝通，他們的需求仍然強勁。我們意識到新冠疫情對宏觀經濟的影響，包括全球經濟中消費和工業部門的失業問題。但各國政府已向工人、企業和銀行系統提供了強而有力的財政支持。

As a result of our assessment of the environment, we fully repaid our revolving credit facility borrowings subsequent to the end of the quarter. We currently have approximately $5.9 billion of cash and investments on the balance sheet, which is an increase of about $200 million compared to our Q1 balance.

根據我們對環境的評估，我們在本季末全額償還了循環信貸額度借款。目前，我們的資產負債表上約有59億美元的現金和投資，較第一季增加了約2億美元。

We are continuing to prepare for the planned acquisition of Kokusai Electric. During Q2, we received Taiwan's clearance for the transaction, and we have one final approval pending from China.

我們正在繼續為收購國際電氣公司做準備。第二季度，我們已獲得台灣方面的交易批准，目前還剩最後一項來自中國的批准待定。

Turning to the business outlook. While I see positive signs, there is still potential for COVID-related disruptions around the world. And we're not providing revenue and earnings guidance for Q3. I know there is concern about the risk of further economic impacts and changes in customer investment patterns but rather than speculate, I'll attempt to help our investors by providing visibility into what we are seeing across our operating segments.

接下來談談業務展望。雖然我看到了一些積極的跡象，但全球範圍內仍存在與新冠疫情相關的潛在幹擾。因此，我們不提供第三季的營收和獲利預期。我知道大家擔心經濟會進一步受到衝擊，以及客戶投資模式會發生變化，但與其猜測，不如讓我透過介紹我們各個營運部門的現狀來幫助投資者。

In semiconductor systems, our Q2 revenue would have been nearly $650 million higher absent COVID-related constraints. We hope to recover this revenue in Q3 and Q4 as the supply chain improves. In the second quarter, our semi systems orders were up significantly, and demand is broadening to more customers. Based on what we're hearing from our customers, we believe Q3 semi revenue could be up in the high single digits sequentially and higher again in Q4, resulting in strong double-digit growth for the fiscal year.

在半導體系統領域，若不考慮新冠疫情相關限制，我們第二季的營收本應高出近6.5億美元。我們希望隨著供應鏈的改善，能在第三季和第四季彌補這部分營收缺口。第二季度，我們的半導體系統訂單顯著成長，且客戶群正在擴大。根據我們從客戶那裡了解到的情況，我們預計第三季半導體營收將季減接近兩位數的成長，第四季將進一步提升，在本財年實現強勁的兩位數成長。

Our services business has proven highly resilient during the crisis, and we continue to generate a growing proportion of revenue from subscription-like long-term service agreements.

我們的服務業務在危機期間展現了極強的韌性，我們繼續從類似訂閱的長期服務協議中獲得越來越大比例的收入。

AGS posted its first $1 billion quarter ever in Q2, with nearly 60% of revenue coming from service agreements. In Q3, we believe AGS revenue could be flat to slightly higher sequentially and higher again in Q4. Within AGS, our semi parts and services business has grown to $3.2 billion or 24% of our company's semi-related revenue. VLSI Research has begun to size and compare the parts and service revenue of companies in the industry. Ours is the strongest among our peers, both on a dollar basis and as a percent of our semi-related revenue.

AGS在第二季度實現了公司歷史上首個10億美元季度營收，其中近60%的收入來自服務協議。我們預計AGS第三季營收將與上一季持平或略有成長，第四季可望進一步提升。在AGS內部，我們的半導體零件及服務業務已成長至32億美元，占公司半導體相關業務總收入的24%。 VLSI Research已開始對業內各公司的零件及服務收入進行規模和比較。無論從金額或佔半導體相關業務總收入的百分比來看，我們的業務在同業中都處於領先地位。

Our total semiconductor installed base business, which includes parts, services, 200-millimeter systems and 300-millimeter upgrades and refurbs, has grown to become 38% of our semi-related revenue. This ratio is about 5 points higher than our peers.

我們的半導體裝置業務總量（包括零件、服務、200毫米系統以及300毫米升級和翻新）已占我們半導體相關收入的38%。這一比例比同行高出約5個百分點。

As Gary indicated, we still expect our display revenue to be nearly the same this year as last. We believe revenue is likely to be flat to slightly higher sequentially in Q3 and higher again in Q4.

正如Gary所指出的，我們仍然預計今年的顯示器業務收入將與去年基本持平。我們認為第三季營收可能環比持平或略有成長，第四季營收將進一步成長。

In short, if the demand indications from our customers hold and our supply chains continue to improve, then we should have second half-weighted revenue in each segment. Based on everything we see today, this would translate into sequential revenue growth and earnings growth in Q3 and then again in Q4.

簡而言之，如果客戶的需求回饋保持不變，且我們的供應鏈持續改善，那麼我們各業務板塊下半年的加權平均營收應該會有所成長。根據我們目前掌握的所有信息，這將轉化為第三季和第四季營收和獲利的環比成長。

So in summary, while the situation remains fluid and macroeconomic impacts are still unknown, our customers remain committed to their technology road maps and are signaling growth for Applied. We will remain vigilant, stay close to our customers and be ready to respond quickly if the environment changes.

總而言之，儘管情況依然瞬息萬變，宏觀經濟影響尚不明朗，但我們的客戶仍致力於推進其技術路線圖，並展現出對應用材料公司發展的信心。我們將保持警惕，與客戶緊密合作，並隨時準備在環境變化時迅速做出應對。

Once again, I'm incredibly proud of our employees for their strong commitment to health and safety and their strong support of our customers, both in meeting today's demand at our factories and theirs and innovating in our R&D labs to enable the technology of the future.

我再次為我們的員工感到無比自豪，他們對健康和安全的堅定承諾，以及對客戶的大力支持，無論是在我們工廠滿足當前的需求，還是在我們研發實驗室進行創新，以實現未來的技術發展。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

麥克，現在開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，丹。 （操作員指令）操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 與 Evercore 的對話。

I guess first question, you talked about expectations for incremental strength from memory through the calendar year. I was hoping perhaps you could elaborate on that in terms of mix between both NAND and DRAM as well as new wafer starts versus strengths. And what gives you the confidence that, that is sustainable in this world of COVID?

我的第一個問題是，您提到了對今年記憶體業務成長的預期。我希望您能詳細說明一下，NAND 和 DRAM 的組合，以及新晶圓開工量與現有產能之間的關係。在新冠疫情肆虐的當下，是什麼讓您確信這種成長能持續下去？

Thanks, C.J. As we look into the year, we see the year profiling pretty similar from a proportion of spend standpoint that we talked about a quarter ago. We see strength in foundry/logic continuing throughout the year as our order book and customer base broadens, and we feel good about that.

謝謝C.J.。展望今年，從支出比例來看，全年的發展趨勢與上個季度我們討論的情況基本一致。隨著訂單量和客戶群的擴大，我們預計晶圓代工/邏輯晶片業務的強勁勢頭將持續全年，對此我們感到樂觀。

As we profile to memory, we talked about seeing some incremental strength this year, both on DRAM and NAND. I think it's too early to call the magnitude of that, but we do see balance across the device types from a spend standpoint. And I do think there is going to be similarities in terms of 2019 being an investment year, primarily focused on technology road maps. And we actually saw wafer starts per month last year, 2019, actually go down year-over-year in both DRAM and NAND.

在分析記憶體市場時，我們提到今年DRAM和NAND市場都出現了一些成長動能。現在判斷成長幅度還為時過早，但從支出角度來看，不同裝置類型之間的平衡性確實不錯。我認為2019年與今年類似，仍將是投資年，主要集中在技術路線圖方面。事實上，我們看到2019年DRAM和NAND的月均晶圓開工量同比均有所下降。

And as we look into this year, we don't really see strong capacity adds. We continue to see our customers driving their technology road maps. Because that is, in effect, their cost structure. It allows them to drive margins and cash flow when industries recover. So we see continued investments from a technology road map standpoint, but we see probably less wafer starts per month coming out of the system than we did the year before. So it's sort of on the margin. We continue to stay close. We will watch it. And we'll continue to be open and transparent. In an environment that's defined by uncertainty, what we want to try to do is be as helpful as possible, share with investors the things we're seeing and hearing from our customers, and we'll let you know what we see each quarter as the situation evolves.

展望今年，我們並未看到產能大幅成長。客戶仍在推進其技術路線圖，因為這實際上關係到他們的成本結構。這讓他們能夠在行業復甦時提高利潤率和現金流。因此，從技術路線圖的角度來看，我們看到投資仍在繼續，但每月晶圓開工量可能低於去年同期水準。所以目前情況尚不明朗。我們將繼續密切關注，密切關注市場動態，並保持開放透明。在當前充滿不確定性的環境下，我們希望盡最大努力提供幫助，與投資者分享我們從客戶那裡了解到的信息，並隨著情況的發展，每個季度都會及時向大家匯報我們的觀察結果。

That's helpful. If I could sneak in a quick follow-up, Mike. On gross margins, can you speak to how you see the trajectory into the second half, considering what looks to be a positive mix from both silicon and AGS? And also, as it relates to supply chain because I think you took out $8 million of COVID-related expenses. Is that something that should sustain into the back half? How should we be thinking about that?

這很有幫助。麥克，我能再補充一個問題嗎？關於毛利率，考慮到矽和AGS業務組合看起來都不錯，您能否談談您對下半年毛利率走勢的看法？另外，關於供應鏈方面，因為我記得您扣除了800萬美元的疫情相關支出。這種情況會持續到下半年嗎？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Thanks, C.J. I'll take both. As we think about the actions the company took in the current environment, we made conscious decisions about how we were going to position ourselves from an operating and manufacturing standpoint, and decisions were made very early in the process. We implemented our business continuity team in the middle of January. And as part of contingency planning and mapping out potential points of risk, we made decisions to put in place surge capacity from a personnel standpoint, and that decision was made probably the first week of February.

謝謝，C.J.。我兩個都要。回顧公司在當前環境下採取的行動，我們從營運和生產的角度出發，有意識地制定了相應的策略定位，而這些決策很早就做出了。我們在1月中旬就組建了業務連續性團隊。作為應急計劃的一部分，我們也制定了人員擴充計劃，以應對潛在的風險點，這個決定大概是在2月初做出的。

So clearly, there's an impact to maintain cycle times and throughputs that are on par with where we were before COVID. That's a result of really strong teamwork and execution and planning, but it certainly has a headwind from a margin standpoint. And we're optimizing around serving our customers and taking care of the things that we can take care of so we can better withstand the things we can't control, which is what we saw from a supply chain disruption standpoint and the rate and pace of that recovery. So we feel good about that. But certainly, it does create a headwind. And you see that profiling through some of the segments. And I'm happy to share more of that thinking, but it's definitely there.

顯然，要維持與疫情前水準相當的周期時間和吞吐量，確實會受到一些影響。這得益於我們強大的團隊合作、高效的執行和周密的計劃，但從利潤率的角度來看，這無疑會帶來一些不利因素。我們正在優化服務客戶的方式，並盡力做好我們所能做的事情，以便更好地應對那些我們無法控制的因素，例如供應鏈中斷以及復甦的速度和節奏。因此，我們對此感到樂觀。但可以肯定的是，這確實會帶來一些不利因素。這一點在一些業務板塊中也有所體現。我很樂意分享更多相關想法，但這種不利因素確實存在。

From a gross margin standpoint, as we look into next quarter, what we signaled was a favorable segment mix. And in a normal environment, that would create improvement from a gross margin standpoint. What I'd also say is what we experienced in our most recent quarter was 6 weeks of impact of a material supply chain disruption driven by a concurrent shelter-in-place order in the Bay Area and Malaysia. It affected a material part of our supply chain, but it was a 6-week impact.

從毛利率的角度來看，展望下一季度，我們已表明業務組合將更加有利。在正常情況下，這將有助於提升毛利率。此外，我想指出的是，上個季度我們經歷了長達六週的重要供應鏈中斷，這是由於灣區和馬來西亞同時實施居家隔離令所致。雖然影響了我們供應鏈的重要組成部分，但持續時間僅為六週。

Going into Q3, we've got a full 13-week impact as the supply chain becomes healthier, and that will sort of offset a bit of the favorable segment mix. So I think the best way to think about our gross margin as we look into Q3 from a planning assumption standpoint is to think about it flat. If we can do better, we certainly will. But we'll take it 1 quarter at a time and give investors our best view of what we see and the pluses and minuses as we manage the business to the best of our ability in this environment.

進入第三季度，隨著供應鏈的逐步恢復，我們將迎來長達13週的全面影響，這將在一定程度上抵消有利的業務組合帶來的影響。因此，我認為從規劃假設的角度來看，展望第三季度，我們最好的做法是將其視為毛利率持平。如果我們能夠做得更好，我們當然會努力。但我們會按季度逐步推進，並在當前環境下盡我們所能管理業務，同時向投資者提供我們所看到的最佳情況以及利弊分析。

Our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

I have 2. First for Gary. A company gained 0.5 point of equipment share last year in served variable markets led by deposition. Which end markets or technologies are you more confident to show outsized growth this year and next year? And as a follow-up, Dan, I'm curious what your take is on recent Department of Commerce's China equipment licensees for the future shipments?

我有兩個問題。第一個是問Gary的。去年，一家公司在以沉積業務為主導的多元化服務市場中，設備市佔率成長了0.5個百分點。您認為哪些終端市場或技術更有可能在今年和明年實現顯著成長？另外，Dan，我想了解您對商務部近期向中國授予未來出貨設備許可證有何看法？

Thanks for the question. I think I'll take both of those. So let me start with market share. And starting from an overall company perspective, one of the things that we've discussed before is that we have very good balance across all device segments, including leading and trailing logic, DRAM and NAND. This enables us to perform well really regardless of the device mix. It gives us ability to perform well in pretty much any environment. So if we look at overall, 2019 was a good year for us.

謝謝你的提問。我想我會回答這兩個問題。首先，我想談談市場佔有率。從公司整體的角度來看，我們之前討論過的一點是，我們在所有裝置領域都保持著非常均衡的佈局，包括領先和落後邏輯裝置、DRAM 和 NAND。這使我們能夠在各種裝置組合下都表現出色，幾乎可以在任何環境下都取得優異成績。所以，總的來說，2019 年對我們來說是豐收的一年。

Your question, I think, is related to 2020. We look at 2020 as also a very good setup for us. As I said in the prepared remarks, we anticipate strong double-digit growth for Applied in 2020. And what I would say is that in this new environment, I used to travel a significant amount. And I'm still on the phone very frequently with CEOs, R&D leaders, in fact, I had a call with one of the CEOs this morning. And one of the things that's a real advantage for Applied is the traction we have with customers to accelerate their PPACt road maps. And that really is both for memory and also for foundry and logic.

我認為您的問題與2020年有關。我們認為2020年對我們來說也是一個非常好的開始。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，我們預計Applied在2020年將實現兩位數的強勁成長。我想說的是，在這種新的環境下，我過去經常出差。而且我仍然經常與執行長、研發負責人通電話，事實上，我今天早上就和其中一位執行長通了電話。 Applied的一大優勢在於我們與客戶建立了良好的合作關係，能夠幫助他們加速推進PPACt路線圖。這在記憶體、晶圓代工和邏輯電路領域都適用。

So performance in 2019, we gained about 2 points in the markets that we serve and 0.5 point overall WFE share. So if we look at the setup for 2020, we continue to see strong foundry/logic investments where we have leadership products, PVD, epi, strong traction in new etch applications. We see currently double-digit growth in our memory business, strong double-digit growth in memory, gaining traction with new capabilities that are key for scaling and strong growth in memory patterning applications.

因此，2019 年我們的業績表現為：在我們所服務的市場中，市佔率成長了約 2 個百分點，整體晶圓廠設備 (WFE) 市佔率成長了 0.5 個百分點。展望 2020 年，我們將繼續增加對晶圓代工/邏輯電路的投資，我們在 PVD、外延等領先產品領域擁有強勁的市場表現，並在新的蝕刻應用方面取得了顯著進展。目前，我們的記憶體業務實現了兩位數的成長，記憶體業務的強勁成長得益於對規模化至關重要的新功能，以及記憶體圖形化應用的強勁成長。

So overall, again, we have balance across all of these different segments. I would say that our pipeline of our new products and our integrated material solutions has never been better relative to accelerating PPACt road maps for customers.

總而言之，我們在各個業務板塊都保持了平衡。我認為，就加速推進客戶的PPACt路線圖而言，我們的新產品線和整合材料解決方案從未像現在這樣充足。

Then the second question is around, I think, the export controls. So let me start with perspective of the overall geopolitical situation. And I've said before on this one, Applied believes in fair trade and intellectual property protection. The semi ecosystem and innovation road map rely on these principles. So regarding the new regulations that were recently announced by the Department of Commerce, we're working very closely with the U.S. government, trade associations and our advisers to better define the requirements for the industry and to be able to comply with the new regulations. We have some very good people working on this. And based on our work to date, our current expectation is Applied is going to be able to meet the government's required standards when the rules come into effect at the end of June without significant disruptions to our business. If needed, we have significant flexibility in our global operations' footprint, and we're developing contingency plans that we could implement. But again, overall, we believe we're going to be able to meet the government's required standards when the rules become effective.

第二個問題我認為是關於出口管制的。首先，我想談談整體地緣政治情勢。我之前也說過，Applied 秉持公平貿易和智慧財產權保護的理念。半導體生態系統和創新路線圖都基於這些原則。針對美國商務部近期公佈的新規，我們正與美國政府、產業協會和顧問緊密合作，以更好地明確產業要求，確保符合新規。我們為此投入了大量精力。根據我們目前的工作，我們預計 Applied 能夠在新規於 6 月底生效時達到政府的要求，且不會對業務造成重大影響。如有必要，我們在全球營運佈局方面擁有很大的靈活性，並且正在製定應急計畫。總而言之，我們相信新規生效後，我們能夠達到政府的要求。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, I was hoping you could give us an update on your business in China, both on the memory side as well as the logic and foundry side. One of your foundry customers just raised CapEx, I think it was yesterday, by $1 billion plus. I'm guessing the activity on the memory side continues to be pretty robust as well. But if you can give us an update on what you're seeing near term and what your expectations are for the second half, that would be great. And then I've got a quick follow-up.

Gary，我希望你能為我們介紹一下你在中國的業務狀況，包括記憶體、邏輯晶片和代工晶片方面。你的一位代工客戶昨天剛籌集了超過10億美元的資金。我估計記憶體業務也依然非常強勁。如果你能介紹一下你近期的計畫以及對下半年的預期，那就太好了。我還有一個後續問題。

Toshi, I'll jump in on that question. So as we think about China, let's talk about where we ended 2019 and use that as a jumping-off point to talk about what we see incrementally into 2020 as it relates to domestic China spend.

Toshi，我來回答這個問題。說到中國，我們先來談談2019年底的情況，並以此為起點，逐步探討2020年中國國內消費的發展趨勢。

So if we look back into 2019, the market sizing was about $6.5 billion. And a quarter ago, we said our expectation for 2020 was an incremental 200 to 300 -- I'm sorry, $2 billion to $3 billion of domestic China spend. Our expectation in 2020 is still $2 billion to $3 billion but now given the customer news overnight, we're probably at the high end of that range.

回顧2019年，市場規模約65億美元。一個季度前，我們預計2020年中國國內消費額將增加2億至3億美元。我們2020年的預期仍然是20億至30億美元，但鑑於昨晚收到的客戶消息，我們目前的預期可能接近上限。

And so a quarter ago, as we think about the decomposition of that incremental spend, we said about 1/3 200-millimeter trailing node foundry specialty logic spend, 2/3 of it was 300-millimeter. And as you decompose the 300-millimeter spend, it was roughly split 50-50 between foundry/logic and memory, with balance among device types in memory. And as you think about us at the higher end of the range now, think about incrementally more spend in 300-millimeter trailing node foundry/logic, and I think that gives you an evolution of that spend profile of how the now $2.5 billion to $3 billion is spent towards the high end of that incremental range. That's the best insight we have at this point based on everything we see in the market and what we're talking with our customers about.

因此，三個月前，當我們分析新增支出組成時，我們提到，大約三分之一的支出用於200毫米製程節點下的代工廠專業邏輯元件，三分之二用於300毫米製程節點。而300毫米製程節點下的支出大致在代工廠/邏輯元件和記憶體之間各佔一半，記憶體中不同元件類型的支出比例也較為均衡。現在，我們預計支出將達到該區間的高端，這意味著在300毫米製程節點下的代工廠/邏輯裝置方面的支出將進一步增加。我認為這可以反映出目前25億至30億美元的支出是如何逐步增加到該區間高端的。這是我們目前基於市場觀察和與客戶溝通所得出的最佳見解。

That's helpful, Dan. And then I think this one is for Gary. I just wanted to follow-up on some of your market share comments. I think you said you gained 7 percentage points of share in PVD. I was curious what you're seeing on the upside in terms of market share? And you also spoke to your new product in optical inspection. If you can kind of speak to the differentiating factors for your tool vis-à-vis some of the competition and what your aspirations are over the next couple of years in terms of market share, that would be great.

丹，這很有幫助。接下來我想問蓋瑞一些問題。我想就你之前提到的市佔率問題再問幾句。你提到PVD領域的市佔率成長了7個百分點。我想知道你認為市佔率成長的潛力有多大？你也提到了你的光學檢測新產品。如果你能談談你的產品相對於競爭對手的優勢，以及未來幾年你在市佔率方面的預期目標，那就太好了。

Yes. Sure. Let me start with the PDC business overall, and then I'll answer the etch question. So our inspection measurement business is one of the segments where we have strongest momentum. We talked about the record last quarter we had and the first half of FY 2020, and this is far above our previous best half year for the business. We've got strong -- we will achieve strong double-digit growth overall in 2020 in semi, and this segment will be one of the highest growth businesses for us this year, the inspection and measurement business.

好的，當然。我先從PDC業務整體說起，然後再回答蝕刻方面的問題。我們的檢測測量業務是目前發展勢頭最強勁的業務板塊之一。我們之前提到上個季度和2020財年上半年的業績都創下了歷史新高，遠超以往同期最佳業績。我們預計2020年半導體業務整體將實現兩位數的強勁成長，而檢測測量業務也將是我們今年成長最快的業務板塊之一。

Relative to the new optical inspection system, we have tremendous momentum with that system. We'll launch it later this year. Very, very strong adoption in foundry and logic. I'd tell you the other thing that is positive relative to our PDC business is in e-beam. We have a strong leadership position. We have also some new capabilities there, the highest resolution imaging technology in the industry and very strong initial adoption with new capability there with leading customers. So again, we're off to a great start in 2020 in PDC. And I would say the best position that we've ever had relative to that business.

就新型光學檢測系統而言，我們目前進展迅速。我們將在今年稍後正式推出該系統。它在晶圓代工和邏輯電路領域的應用非常廣泛。此外，就我們的PDC業務而言，電子束偵測也是一大利好。我們在該領域擁有強大的領先地位，並開發出一些新的功能，例如業界最高解析度的成像技術。這些新功能已獲得許多領先客戶的正面回應。因此，我們在2020年的PDC業務開局良好，可以說是我們迄今為止在該業務領域取得的最佳開局。

Etch also, I think as you know, we've had tremendous growth in the conductor etch business, about 5x in terms of revenue growth between 2020 and 2018. And this is also where we have the -- probably the best product, most successful product ever in the history of Applied Materials, the Sym3. Relative to 2019, we gained about 0.5 point of overall etch share. And in 2020, we also anticipate strong double-digit growth in etch.

如您所知，蝕刻業務也取得了巨大的成長，2020 年的營收比 2018 年成長了約 5 倍。而且，我們還有 Sym3——可能是應用材料公司史上最成功、最優秀的產品。與 2019 年相比，我們的蝕刻市佔率成長了約 0.5 個百分點。我們預計 2020 年蝕刻業務也將實現兩位數的強勁成長。

We have good momentum in memory, significant traction with all leading customers in foundry/logic, where we haven't had very high share, it's been very low in the past. We have really significant traction there. And in new product and packaging, that also has strong momentum. So overall, we anticipate strong growth in 2020, and we have good momentum with new capabilities and confidence that we're going to continue to grow etch share going forward.

我們在記憶體領域發展勢頭良好，與代工/邏輯晶片領域所有主要客戶都取得了顯著進展，而我們過去在該領域的市場份額一直很低。現在，我們在該領域取得了顯著進展。此外，新產品和封裝領域也發展勢頭強勁。因此，總體而言，我們預計2020年將實現強勁成長，並且憑藉新的能力，我們有信心繼續擴大蝕刻市場份額。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Dan, I think I just want to try to better understand the impact of the supply constraints you're seeing from COVID. You talked about it impacting the April quarter by like $650 million, and you said you'd be able to make that up in both the fiscal third and fourth quarter. But then you also said in an answer to a question that you'd have some gross margin headwinds in the fiscal third quarter because you'd have 13 weeks of sort of these supply issues.

丹，我想更了解你目前遇到的由新冠疫情造成的供應限制的影響。你提到疫情導致四月的季度損失了大約6.5億美元，並表示你可以在第三和第四財季彌補這部分損失。但你又在回答一個問題時提到，由於持續13週的供應問題，第三財季的毛利率會受到一定影響。

And so I guess my question is, is supply also impacting what you can ship in the fiscal third quarter? If so, by how much? And when do you think we get to a situation where you guys can actually meet the demand that's on your books?

所以我想問的是，供應情況是否也會影響你們第三財季的供貨量？如果會，影響有多大？你們預計什麼時候才能真正滿足帳面上的所有需求？

Yes. Thanks, John. Let me try to unpack it a little bit for you and give you a sense of how we think about it. Hopefully, that gives you insight that addresses the question. And if I miss something, please let me know, and I'll definitely follow-up.

是的，謝謝你，約翰。讓我試著為你解釋一下，讓你了解我們的想法。希望這能解答你的疑問。如果我遺漏了什麼，請告訴我，我一定會跟進。

So as we think about where the supply chain is and how the supply chain gets healthier over time, I think it's important to break it up into 3 components, and we'll deal with each of these 3 buckets in sequence. The first, our suppliers are back in business, raising their staffing levels and getting back to pre-COVID levels of output. That's sort of a set of issues, bucket one. Bucket two, how quickly can they make up for lost volumes? And then the third bucket is the logistics channels and how they get healthier over time.

因此，當我們思考供應鏈的現狀以及如何使其隨著時間的推移而更加健康時，我認為將其分解為三個部分非常重要，我們將依次討論這三個方面。首先，我們的供應商正在恢復運營，增加員工人數，並逐步恢復到疫情前的產量水準。這構成了第一類問題。第二類問題是，他們能夠多快彌補損失的產量？第三類問題是物流管道及其如何隨著時間的推移而變得更加健康。

And so as we think about the time sequence and overlay of each of those 3 vectors, all of our suppliers are back in the game. They're working back to 100% staffing levels and getting back to pre-COVID levels of output. I think exiting our fiscal Q3, I think, a good portion, a disproportionate share of that will be behind us. That leaves then the second bucket, which is how quickly can you make up for lost volumes? I think that happens, given the robust environment we see, I think that happens over our fiscal Q4 and in our fiscal Q1. So exiting the calendar year, it should be a direct read-through on true end-market demand in terms of our business activity. Based on what we can see today, that looks like the trajectory.

因此，當我們考慮這三個因素的時間順序和相互影響時，我們所有的供應商都已恢復生產。他們正逐步恢復到100%的員工配置水平，並恢復到疫情前的產量水準。我認為，到第三財季結束時，大部分（甚至可以說是絕大部分）損失都將得到解決。接下來要考慮的是第二個問題，也就是如何快速彌補損失的銷售量？鑑於我們目前看到的強勁市場環境，我認為在第四財季和第一財季就能實現。因此，在今年結束時，我們就能直接了解終端市場的真實需求，並以此來評估我們的業務活動。根據我們目前所看到的，這似乎就是未來的發展趨勢。

The third bucket, the logistics, this is something that's going to be a longer-term issue to get back to normal. And the reason I say that is there's a correlation between the commercial airline industry and the logistics channels. What I mean is, if we're not shipping a full system, full systems, they'll go on special freighter aircraft. A lot of what we do short of a full system will ride in the belly of a commercial aircraft. We've had to pivot that to alternative freight and logistics channels. And the costs associated with that have risen and create a margin headwind. Given the correlation to the health of the commercial industry, I think this one is with us for the foreseeable future. And we're likely to have those increased freight and logistics costs stick with us until we can see the degrees of freedom in commercial aviation begin to get much healthier and more active versus the levels today.

第三個方面是物流，這需要更長時間才能恢復正常。我這麼說的原因是，商業航空業和物流通路之間有著密切的關聯。我的意思是，如果我們運輸的不是整套系統，而是整套系統，那麼它們就會透過專用貨機運輸。很多非整套系統的貨物都會放在商用飛機的貨艙裡運輸。我們不得不將運輸方式轉向其他貨運和物流管道。而相關的成本也隨之上升，對利潤造成了不利影響。考慮到這與商業航空業的健康狀況密切相關，我認為在可預見的未來，這個問題都將持續存在。而且，在商業航空業的營運狀況比現在好得多、活躍得多之前，這些不斷上漲的貨運和物流成本很可能會一直伴隨著我們。

So if you hear my comments about that margin headwind being around for a while, I sort of disconnect that from the fundamental health of the supply chain. I think we're back -- our suppliers are back to pre-COVID levels of output exiting the current fiscal quarter. I think the balance of the calendar year, we make up for lost volumes. Hard to predict at this point when the commercial aviation channels begin to free up to something similar to what we saw pre-COVID. Hopefully, that sheds some light on how we're seeing things, John, and answers your question.

所以，如果你聽到我之前說利潤率下滑的趨勢會持續一段時間，我其實是把它和供應鏈的基本健康狀況區分開來的。我認為我們已經恢復正常——我們的供應商在本財季末的產量已經恢復到疫情前的水平。我認為在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們會彌補損失的銷售量。目前很難預測商業航空通路何時才能恢復到疫情前的水準。約翰，希望這些解釋能讓你更清楚地了解我們的看法，並解答你的疑問。

That's really helpful. And then as my follow-up, Gary, there's been a lot of investor focus on the opportunities you might have in China and maybe some of the risks associated with that from just a geopolitical perspective. Over the weekend, we kind of got a different flavor of that with some arguments about perhaps more domestic manufacturing of leading-edge semiconductors, not only here in the U.S., but there were some articles out of Japan. I guess I'd be curious, I know it's early. I'd love to get your thoughts on this potential drive for more sovereign manufacturing of leading-edge chips. And as you think about that opportunity, would this be sort of redundant capacity in your estimation? Or would it be growth capacity? Or how do you think that plays out over the coming years?

這真的很有幫助。接下來我想問的是，Gary，最近很多投資人都關注中國市場的潛在機會，以及從地緣政治角度來看可能的風險。上週末，我們看到了一些不同的觀點，例如關於是否應該更多地在國內生產尖端半導體的討論，不僅在美國，日本也有一些相關的報導。我很好奇，我知道現在談論這個話題還為時過早。我很想聽聽您對這種推動尖端晶片自主生產的潛在趨勢的看法。您認為這種機會會造成產能過剩嗎？還是會成為成長點？您覺得未來幾年這種趨勢會如何發展？

Yes. Thanks for the question, John. So this has been discussed for a while, but the focus certainly has been increasing with the current geopolitical situation. I can't, of course, share any details of any discussions I've had with anyone on the topic. But for sure, this is a good opportunity for the United States and also for Applied. And we'd be very supporting -- supportive of making the concept a success.

是的，謝謝你的提問，約翰。這個問題我們已經討論過一段時間了，但隨著當前地緣政治局勢的發展，大家對此的關注度無疑更高了。當然，我不能透露我與任何人就此話題進行的任何討論細節。但可以肯定的是，這對美國和應用材料公司來說都是一個很好的機會。我們將全力支持－全力支持這項理念的成功實施。

If we look at when our customers go into different geographic regions, it does create a good opportunity for us. If we look at some of our major customers, I'm not going to talk about anyone in specific, but it creates a really great service opportunity for us as they move into a different geographic location where they don't have the same nucleus or critical mass of technical horsepower. So as we've had discussions with some of the customers that are thinking about moving into different geographic locations, support, of course, is one of the key aspects of their decision-making. And so again, I think it could be a really good opportunity for Applied Materials. And certainly, from a geopolitical standpoint, a good thing for the United States for this opportunity.

如果我們觀察客戶拓展到不同地理區域的情況，這確實為我們創造了良好的機會。就我們的一些主要客戶而言（我不想具體提及任何一家），當他們遷往其他地區，而這些地區缺乏他們原有的核心技術力量或關鍵技術實力時，這為我們提供了絕佳的服務機會。因此，當我們與一些正在考慮拓展到其他地區的客戶進行討論時，支援服務無疑是他們決策的關鍵因素之一。所以，我認為這對應用材料公司來說是一個非常好的機會。當然，從地緣政治角度來看，這對美國來說也是一件好事。

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 與 Cowen and Company 的合作。

Congrats on operating in such a tough environment with the results. So first question, either for Dan. When I look at the second half, you said that there's going to be $650 million that got impacted in April that's going to flow through in the second half of this year. If you strip out the $650 million, is it fair to assume second half revenues would be lower than the first half revenues? And then I have a follow-up.

恭喜你們在如此艱難的環境下取得如此佳績。第一個問題，問丹吧。你提到，4月有6.5億美元的損失會在今年下半年顯現。如果剔除這6.5億美元，是否可以合理地假設下半年的收入會低於上半年？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, Krish. Just give me a second to pull up the model. Yes, I wouldn't necessarily say that's true. And here's why I go there.

是的，克里什。稍等片刻，我調出模型。是的，我並不認為這是事實。原因如下。

First, we talked about supply chain getting back to pre-COVID levels of output throughout our fiscal Q3. So that's an exit rate comment. And implicit in that exit rate comment is the fact that they're not able to supply true end-market demand throughout Q3. And we exit Q3, as Gary talked about in his prepared comments, with record backlog in our semi-related business, SSG plus AGS and actually record orders in Q2 as well. So demand continues to be strong. And the supply chain will get healthier exiting Q3 and then make up volumes from unmet demand to date through Q3 -- or I'm sorry, fiscal Q4 and fiscal Q1.

首先，我們討論了供應鏈在整個第三財季恢復到新冠疫情前產量水準的情況。這是關於退出率的討論。而這退出率的隱含前提是，他們無法在整個第三財季滿足終端市場的實際需求。正如Gary在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的，我們在第三財季結束時，半相關業務（SSG和AGS）的積壓訂單創下歷史新高，而且第二財季的訂單量也創下歷史新高。因此，需求依然強勁。供應鏈將在第三財季結束後逐漸恢復健康，並透過第三財季（或更準確地說，是第四財季和第一財季）來彌補迄今為止未滿足的需求。

So we think we exit the calendar year shipping to true end-market demand. So there's a bit of a bleed-over of this dynamic into the next fiscal year. And so I think given what we've seen from an order standpoint and what we're entering Q3 with from a backlog perspective, I still think we see strength in the back half of our year.

因此，我們認為本年度末的供貨量將真正滿足終端市場需求。這種趨勢會延續到下一個財年。鑑於我們從訂單狀況和第三季積壓訂單情況來看，我認為下半年業績依然強勁。

If we break that down by device type, what do we see? We see continued strength throughout the year in foundry/logic. We talked about a broadening of our order book in foundry/logic. We talked about multiple customers, multiple nodes. We talked about some softness as it relates to things like auto and industrial and consumer end markets, and that's more trailing node geometries. What we're seeing on the leading edge continues to be strong.

如果我們按裝置類型細分，會發現什麼？我們看到晶圓代工/邏輯裝置業務全年持續強勁。我們之前提到過晶圓代工/邏輯元件訂單量的增加，涉及多個客戶和多個製程節點。我們也提到汽車、工業和消費性電子等終端市場需求疲軟，這主要體現在後沿過程節點。而前沿裝置市場則依然保持強勁勢頭。

As we think about memory, a quarter ago, we talked about the second half of the year being the swing factor, and that construct still holds. From a memory standpoint, calendar year Q4 is still beyond the horizon of visibility. And so we do think we're in a strong environment, and we think the company performed pretty well in the back half of the year even without the $650 million that the -- we were unable to meet in the most recent fiscal quarter.

談到記憶體業務，上個季度我們曾說過下半年是關鍵轉捩點，這一觀點依然成立。從記憶體業務的角度來看，本年度第四季的情況目前還難以預測。因此，我們認為公司目前處於強勁的發展環境，即使沒有達到最近一個財季未能實現的6.5億美元目標，公司在下半年的表現也相當不錯。

Got it. That's really helpful, Dan. And then just as a follow-up, thanks for the color on your view on the commerce department ruling. I'm curious on the services side, how much of your revenue comes from China? And if you assume things go negative with the commerce department ruling for you or for the U.S. semi cap companies, what happens to the service revenue associated, especially on the foundry side, when you have existing tools out there?

明白了。丹，這真的很有幫助。另外，我想補充一點，感謝你對商務部裁決的看法。我很好奇，在服務方面，你們的收入有多少來自中國？如果商務部的裁決對你們或美國半導體公司造成不利影響，那麼相關的服務收入會受到怎樣的影響，尤其是在代工方面，因為你們已經擁有現有的工具？

Yes. So thanks, Krish. Let me just try to walk through a little bit of the construct. As we think about the business we do in China today, there, we do both semiconductor business and display business. So I'm going to walk you through a bit of a framework of how to think about it to get a sense of how much service business is done in China. So just bear with me as I walk you through this framework.

是的，謝謝你，克里什。讓我簡單解釋一下這個概念。我們目前在中國開展的業務包括半導體業務和顯示器業務。接下來，我將為你介紹一個框架，幫助你了解我們在中國所進行的服務業務規模。請耐心聽我解釋。

So we do both display and semiconductor business, as you know, in China. So if we take 2019, you had about 29% of our overall company revenue done in China. We've got a large display business, $1.6 billion, almost $1.7 billion in fiscal year 2019. The vast, vast majority of that business goes into China. So if you extract that from the overall China business, that gives you a pretty good look at the size of the semi systems and service business that's done in China.

如您所知，我們在中國同時開展顯示器和半導體業務。 2019年，我們公司約29%的總收入來自中國。我們的顯示器業務規模龐大，2019財年營收接近17億美元，達16億美元。這部分業務的絕大部分都銷往了中國。因此，如果將顯示器業務從中國整體業務中剝離出來，就能大致了解我們在中國開展的半導體系統和服務業務的規模。

If I then disaggregate it and take the service segment out of that revenue pool, and you think about kind of the corporate average service to semi systems, it's kind of a 70-30 split, give or take. And so I think that gives you a sense. When you extract the display revenues, you get a clean look through on the semi-related business in China. And then you think about it as a 70-30 split. Gives you a sense. But you also have to keep in mind that, that service business and systems business service both multinationals and the domestic industry. And the rough order of magnitude of how the systems business splits up across those 2 dimensions, think of it maybe 65% domestic, 35% multinational. That gives you a rough framework of how to think about the decomposition of the China business. And hopefully, that helps give you a little insight into how to think about that business without being point specific because we don't disclose that level of detail.

如果我進一步細分，從收入池中剔除服務業務，並考慮企業平均服務到半導體系統業務的比例，大概是70/30左右。這樣應該可以讓你有個大致了解。當你剔除顯示器收入後，就能清楚看到中國半導體相關業務的組成。然後你會發現它的比例也是70/30。這能讓你有個大致的了解。但你也要記住，服務業務和系統業務既服務跨國公司，也服務國內企業。系統業務在這兩個維度上的大致構成比例，大概是65%面向國內客戶，35%面向跨國公司。這能讓你大致了解如何分解中國業務。希望這能幫助你更好地理解這項業務，而無需透露具體細節，因為我們不會透露如此詳細的資訊。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自哈蘭·蘇爾與摩根大通的聯繫。

On the foundry/logic side, the leading foundry supplier has steadily moved down the path of Moore's Law on the equipment industry has certainly benefited from their aggressive technology migration cadence. Now it looks like that your large logic customer is also getting back on track to executing to a 2-, 2.5-year cadence on node migration after about a 3- or 4-year pause and probably a lot of views. So sounds like you have multiple large customers in foundry and logic moving at an aggressive cadence over the next few years. How are you guys thinking about the mix of WFE spend foundry/logic versus memory over the next few years?

在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片方面，領先的晶圓代工供應商穩步遵循摩爾定律，設備行業也無疑受益於其積極的技術升級步伐。現在看來，你們的大型邏輯晶片客戶在經歷了大約3到4年的停滯期和可能大量的審查之後，也重新走上了正軌，準備以2到2.5年的周期推進節點升級。因此，聽起來你們在晶圓代工和邏輯晶片領域有多家大型客戶將在未來幾年內以積極的步伐推進技術升級。你們如何看待未來幾年晶圓代工/邏輯晶片和記憶體晶片在晶圓前端設備（WFE）支出方面的佔比？

Yes. Thanks, Harlan. So as we take a look at what happened in 2019 and then talk about what we see in 2020 -- but then I also want to project forward. So just kind of breaking it down a little bit.

是的，謝謝你，哈蘭。我們先回顧一下2019年發生的事情，然後再談談2020年的情況——但我也想展望一下未來。所以，我稍微分解一下。

We talked about a quarter ago WFE being about $51 billion, $52 billion in 2019. We think we see the market pretty well. Subsequent to our earnings call a quarter ago, VLSI came out and sized 2019 at $51.5 billion. So right in the middle of how we were thinking about it. So we feel good about that view, and it's a good number around 2019.

上個季度我們討論過，2019年WFE（晶圓製造設備）的市場規模約為510億美元至520億美元。我們認為我們對市場的判斷相當準確。在上個季度財報電話會議之後，VLSI（超大規模積體電路）產業公佈了2019年的市場規模預測，為515億美元。這與我們先前預期的基本吻合。因此，我們對這個預測感到滿意，並認為2019年WFE的市場規模是一個比較合理的數字。

We think about how you decompose that WFE number in 2019 by device type. And it's roughly 60% foundry, 40% memory, balanced across the 2 device types in memory. That gives you a rough order of the structure of the market in 2019. And while I think it's premature today to size the market for a variety of reasons that we can go into, premature to size the market in 2020, we think the rough order of split by device type looks and feels similar to what we saw in 2019. So again, another year of 60% foundry/logic, 40% memory with balance between device types.

我們考慮如何依裝置類型分解2019年的WFE資料。大致來說，晶圓代工佔60%，記憶體佔40%，記憶體中兩種裝置類型的比例較為均衡。這大致反映了2019年的市場結構。雖然我認為現在預測市場規模還為時過早（原因有很多，我們可以在後面詳細討論），預測2020年的市場規模也同樣為時過早，但我們認為按器件類型劃分的大致比例與2019年的情況類似。因此，2020年仍是晶圓代工/邏輯元件佔60%，記憶體佔40%，兩種裝置類型的比例較為均衡。

As we look forward, we talk about the new playbook. We talk about suite of innovation that this company is bringing to market, the ability to integrate those technologies, the ability to drive onboard sensors and metrologies to dial in process recipes faster. There's a clear enablement strategy by this company to drive our customers' power performance area, cost and time road maps. We think we're incredibly well positioned to do that against the backdrop of rising capital intensity over time. With time being a really important element of this, we play -- we have the opportunity to play a really valuable role with our customers and driving that time to market dimension across that new playbook.

展望未來，我們將探討新的策略藍圖。我們將討論公司正在推向市場的一系列創新技術，以及整合這些技術的能力，包括利用車載感測器和計量技術更快地優化製程流程。公司製定了清晰的賦能策略，旨在推動客戶在功率性能、成本和時間方面的路線圖。我們認為，在資本密集度不斷提高的背景下，我們擁有得天獨厚的優勢來實現這一目標。時間至關重要，我們有機會在新策略藍圖中發揮重要作用，幫助客戶縮短產品上市時間。

And that puts us in a really strong position competitively. And we think the dynamic of the position, the innovation, where the market's going in terms of time to market as well as rising capital intensity, we feel good about where the spend profile in foundry/logic is going over time. So while I can't be point specific going forward, I think I gave you some insight in terms of how we, as a company, are thinking about this trend off of where we sit today.

這使我們在競爭中處於非常有利的地位。我們認為，考慮到當前的市場動態、創新、市場在產品上市時間以及資本密集度不斷提高方面的發展趨勢，我們對晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域的支出結構未來的發展方向感到樂觀。雖然我無法對未來做出具體預測，但我認為我已經從我們公司目前的實際情況出發，闡述了我們對這一趨勢的一些看法。

Yes. Extremely helpful. And then within your framework for the fiscal second half of the year from a revenue perspective, how should we think about the trajectory of OpEx for the remainder of the fiscal year from the Q2 levels?

是的，非常有幫助。那麼，從收入角度來看，在您提出的下半年財年框架下，我們應該如何根據第二季的水平來考慮本財年剩餘時間的營運支出走勢呢？

So if we go back a quarter, we said for the last 3 quarters of our fiscal year, we would from a planning assumption standpoint, think about $820 million of OpEx per quarter. As you can see in the current environment, clearly, there're savings from a travel standpoint, but the company also did a good job from a discretionary spend perspective. And R&D as a percent of OpEx in the most recent quarter is almost 70%, 69.5%. The company is doing a really good job controlling discretionary spend. And we were able to do better than that original guidance around $820 million. I think given where we sit today in an environment that's defined by a little bit higher operating expenses, I think a good planning assumption for us is to keep the $820 million as the right way to think about it.

所以，如果我們回顧上個季度，也就是我們之前提到的本財年最後三個季度，從規劃假設的角度來看，我們預計每季的營運支出約為 8.2 億美元。正如您在當前環境下所看到的，顯然，我們在差旅方面節省了開支，而且公司在可自由支配支出方面也做得很好。最近一個季度，研發支出佔營運支出的比例接近 70%，達到 69.5%。公司在控制可自由支配支出方面做得非常出色。我們最終的營運支出比最初預計的 8.2 億美元要好。我認為，鑑於我們目前所處的環境，即營運支出略有上升，8.2 億美元的營運支出預期仍然是合理的規劃假設。

This is a company that will always be disciplined around what we do and how we do it. There's no sacred cows and no entitlement to spend. We will be very disciplined around discretionary spend and make sure that we channel those resources towards fuel for future growth. But $820 million is the right assumption in the back part of our fiscal year. If there's an opportunity to do better, we certainly will.

這是一家總是秉持嚴謹作風的公司，我們做事的方式和內容都一絲不苟。我們沒有任何特權，也沒有隨意揮霍的空間。我們會嚴格控制可自由支配的支出，確保將這些資源用於推動未來的成長。但8.2億美元是我們本財年下半年的合理預期。如果有機會做得更好，我們一定會把握機會。

Our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自新街研究公司的皮埃爾·費拉古。

It's very, very refreshing to hear you talking about the rest of the year with, I would say, a good -- a nice dose of optimism. It's nice to see that the value chain is going -- seems to be well engaged. And I was just trying to think through what would be the downside risk against your current view. So if you're thinking 2020 could be in line with 2019, that's in the context of still a lot of uncertainty being out there. And to me, the big uncertainty is in demand and the general macroeconomic environment.

聽到你對今年剩下的時間充滿樂觀，真是令人耳目一新。很高興看到價值鏈運作良好，似乎一切都順利進行。我一直在思考，你目前的觀點可能有哪些下行風險。如果你認為2020年的情況可能與2019年持平，那是在目前仍存在許多不確定因素的情況下。對我而言，最大的不確定因素在於需求和整體宏觀經濟環境。

And so I was wondering in a world in which things do not recover in the second half and actually, the macro environment is very difficult, and in particular, consumer demand for smartphones, for PCs, for consumer electronics get badly hit, how do you think it's going to affect investment plans of your clients? And maybe another way to put it is in the revenues you see between now and the end of your fiscal year, how much do you think is driven by like the technology train, and it's going to happen, and it has to go through? And how much could be actually adjusted down if the industry has to scale down significantly on capacity, on manufacturing volumes?

所以我想知道，如果下半年經濟沒有復甦，宏觀環境非常艱難，尤其是智慧型手機、個人電腦和消費性電子產品的消費者需求受到嚴重衝擊，您認為這將如何影響您客戶的投資計畫？換句話說，在您預期的本財年剩餘時間內的收入中，您認為有多少是由科技產業的強勁成長所驅動的？科技產業的成長動能是必然的，也是不可避免的。如果整個產業必須大幅縮減產能和產量，那麼實際的預期收入又有多少會隨之下降？

Okay, Pierre. Let me just try to -- there's a lot in there. Let me try to hit these.

好的，皮埃爾。我試著──這裡面有很多東西。我盡量把它們都回答上來。

So first, I want to just maybe address the framing of the question. When we said profile in 2020 similar to 2019, that was kind of a percent split across device types. I think it's too early to be point specific on the aggregate dollar amount of WFE spend. But what we want to do though is communicate in an attempt to be helpful, communicate about what we see and hear from our customers and what we're see and hear in our business and then extrapolate that towards a view on a market.

首先，我想先說明一下這個問題的框架。我們先前提到2020年的使用者畫像與2019年類似，指的是不同設備類型的百分比分佈。現在就WFE（無線前端設備）的總支出金額給出具體數字還為時過早。但我們希望透過溝通，盡可能地提供幫助，分享我們從客戶那裡以及我們自身業務中觀察到的信息，並以此推斷市場走向。

So what do we see in our business? We see Q1 of our fiscal year our semi-related businesses, SSG and AGS, up 18% year-over-year. Q2, we saw strong demand, but we're actually supply chain limited. Despite that, we were up 13% year-over-year in those 2 businesses. So the first half of our fiscal year, we're up about 16% year-over-year in our semi-related business. We enter Q3, record backlog in those 2 businesses. And based on what we're seeing and hearing from customers, we're planning for Q3 to be up sequentially. And then we're expecting it to be up again in Q4. And our view for the fiscal year is strong double-digit growth of our systems business.

那麼，我們目前的業務狀況如何呢？本財年第一季度，我們的半相關業務SSG和AGS年增18%。第二季度，我們看到了強勁的需求，但實際上我們的供應鏈受到了限制。儘管如此，這兩家業務的年成長率仍然達到了13%。因此，本財年上半年，我們的半相關業務年增約16%。進入第三季度，這兩家業務的積壓訂單量創下歷史新高。根據我們從客戶那裡了解到的情況，我們預計第三季將環比成長。我們預計第四季也將繼續成長。我們對本財年的展望是，我們的系統業務將實現兩位數的強勁成長。

Now as we think about WFE in the back half of the year, the best framing that I can give you, independent of what we see and hear from our customers because we feel good about our business, what we've see and hear -- I'm sorry, what we -- the best way to frame the back half of WFE, I think there's going to be 2 factors that influence WFE in the back half of the year. There's what the customers do, and then there's what the supply chain does as it gets healthier.

現在，當我們展望下半年的WFE（倉儲物流效率）時，我能給出的最佳框架是，撇開我們從客戶那裡看到和聽到的情況不談（因為我們對自身業務感到滿意），我們所看到和聽到的——抱歉，應該是我們——我認為，下半年WFE的最佳框架是，有兩個因素會影響下半年的WFE。一個是客戶的行為，另一個是供應鏈在健康發展過程中所採取的行動。

And we know and are aware of the economic, macroeconomic environment. We're aware of what's going on. We see pluses and minuses. Cloud, data center, PC, comm infrastructure are still showing signs of strength. It's offset by softness in things like auto, industrial, consumer, travel, leisure. So we do have that push and pull from a macro environment standpoint, and we see those pluses and minuses playing out in the market. Too early for us to decide how that ultimately plays out. Then you have to overlay the comments we made on the supply chain. The combination of those 2 will influence the shape of WFE in the back half of the year. That said, we feel good about where we sit looking into our Q3 and our Q4.

我們了解並關注當前的宏觀經濟環境。我們清楚正在發生的事情，也看到了其中的利多和不利因素。雲端運算、資料中心、個人電腦和通訊基礎設施仍然展現出強勁勢頭，但汽車、工業、消費、旅遊和休閒等領域的疲軟抵消了部分利好。因此，從宏觀環境的角度來看，我們確實看到了這種拉鋸戰，而這些利弊因素正在市場中發揮作用。現在判斷最終結果還為時過早。此外，還需要結合我們先前對供應鏈的評論。這兩方面因素的結合將影響WFE在下半年的業績走向。儘管如此，我們對第三季和第四季的前景依然充滿信心。

Our last question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

Yes. I wonder just in terms of the way that you've characterized the coming quarter, you didn't give guidance, but then you gave fairly specific segment guidance. Can you just talk about the message we should be taking away from that? Is that just that there's the segment guidance, but there's uncertainty around it? And why not just guide with a wider range, if that's the case?

是的。我想問的是，就您對下一季的描述而言，您沒有給出整體業績指引，但給出了相當具體的分部業績指引。您能否談談我們應該從中得出什麼訊息？這是否僅僅意味著您給出了分部業績指引，但其中存在不確定性？如果是這樣，為什麼不給出更廣泛的指引範圍？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. I wouldn't read anything into it other than if we were to go back 3 months and think about our Q1 earnings call, what we knew at the time was we had a hot spot in China. The rest of the globe was fine. Based on what we saw, we derisked our guide by $300 million, and we talked about it being $150 million semi systems, $100 million in display and $50 million in AGS. And against that backdrop, we executed really well in display and AGS. We fell short in semi systems. And then you ask yourself, why we fell short? There was a concurrent shelter-in-place order issued for 6 weeks of our quarter that impacted a material part of the supply chain. That was unknowable at the time we guided a quarter ago.

是的，謝謝，喬。我不會對此過度解讀。如果我們回顧三個月前的第一季財報電話會議，當時我們知道中國市場存在熱門議題，而全球其他地區的情況尚可。基於當時的觀察，我們將預期營收下調了3億美元，並預測半導體系統業務收入為1.5億美元，顯示器業務收入為1億美元，AGS業務收入為5,000萬美元。在這樣的背景下，我們在顯示器和AGS業務方面表現出色，但在半導體系統業務方面則未能達到預期。那麼，你可能會問，為什麼半導體系統業務會低於預期？原因是，在我們發布第一季業績預期時，中國同時實施了為期六週的居家隔離令，這嚴重影響了供應鏈的重要環節。而這種情況在我們上個季度發布業績預期時是無法預料的。

And given the potential for other aspects of this COVID pandemic to spring up in unexpected places, we felt it was prudent to not guide but share, in an attempt to be helpful, share what we're seeing in the business. And we tried to strike the right balance between openness and transparency and trying to be helpful without putting a number out there that there's things that could potentially happen we have no control of. We can't execute our way out of a complete shutdown of our supply chain and nursing it back to health that impacted 6 weeks of our quarter. That was an unknowable event at the time we guided. So it's nothing more than trying to strike the right balance between that transparency and prudent in an environment, recognizing the elevated macro risk of where we sit today around the world.

鑑於新冠疫情的其他方面可能在意想不到的地方出現，我們認為謹慎的做法是不要發布指導意見，而是分享我們在業務中觀察到的情況，希望能有所幫助。我們努力在開放性和透明度之間找到平衡，既要提供幫助，又不能給出具體的數字，因為有些事情我們無法控制。我們無法透過執行來擺脫供應鏈完全中斷的局面，也無法讓它恢復正常運轉，而這種情況影響了我們季度中的六週。當我們發布指導意見時，這是一個無法預測的事件。因此，我們只是在當前全球宏觀風險加劇的環境下，努力在透明度和謹慎之間找到合適的平衡。

Okay. That's helpful. And then in terms of the second half memory spending, I guess when I talk to your memory customers, they're -- it's basically sounding like Q2 is pretty solid still. But most of them are conveying a fair amount of uncertainty as to the back half and talking about memory companies not being a leading indicator and seem to be getting ready for a variety of scenarios. So as you think about that spending pattern, is it -- is enough of it a technology spending that you feel like this is pretty solid kind of regardless of the memory pricing environment? Or is some of it, I guess -- just what's any vulnerability to conditions worsening in the second half?

好的，這很有幫助。關於下半年的記憶體支出，我跟你們的記憶體客戶交流後發現，他們普遍認為第二季依然相當穩健。但他們中的大多數人對下半年的前景仍存在相當大的不確定性，認為內存公司並非市場領先指標，並且似乎正在為各種可能的情況做準備。所以，您在考慮這種支出模式時，是否認為其中大部分是技術支出，足以保證其整體穩健，不受內存價格環境的影響？或者說，是否存在一些風險，例如下半年市場環境惡化？

So what I would say to that is we shared with you what we're seeing and hearing from customers today. I think we recognize that there's pluses and minuses at play in the market. We try to be open about what we're seeing on both sides of that ledger.

所以我想說的是，我們已經和大家分享了我們今天從客戶那裡了解到的情況。我們意識到市場有利有弊。我們努力做到對市場正反兩方面的情況都保持開放的態度。

And what I would say is we're just going to continue to be very vigilant at the business. We're going to be ready to respond quickly as the situation evolves. We'll continue to be transparent, and we will let you know what we see each quarter, but hard at this point to call it with precision exactly how that unfolds and profiles in the back part of the year. And so let's take it 1 quarter at a time, and we'll share with you what we see along the way.

我想說的是，我們將繼續對業務保持高度警覺。我們會隨時準備根據情勢變化迅速做出反應。我們會繼續保持透明，每季都會向大家報告我們的觀察結果，但目前很難準確預測下半年的發展趨勢。所以，讓我們按季度來，並隨時與大家分享我們的觀察。

Thanks, Joe. Dan, anything you'd like to say before we close the call?

謝謝，喬。丹，在通話結束前你還有什麼要說的嗎？

Sure, Mike. I'd like to share our best wishes to everyone who's been affected by the COVID situation. I'd also like to sincerely thank our employees for adapting to a difficult environment and showing strong support for our customers. They've done a truly strong job, and we appreciate it.

當然，麥克。我想向所有受新冠疫情影響的人們表達我們最誠摯的慰問。同時，我也想衷心感謝我們的員工，感謝他們適應如此艱難的工作環境，並對我們的客戶給予了強而有力的支持。他們做得非常出色，我們對此深表感激。

Our company is privileged. It's privileged to play a big role in enabling the work from home and the learn from home and enabling those technologies that the world needs right now. We're mindful of the macroeconomic risks, but our business is broader, more resilient than it has been in the past, and we continue to see strength throughout the second half of our fiscal year. We will stay close to the investors throughout this situation. Gary and I, we're going to be at the Bernstein conference in a couple of weeks. I'm going to attend events hosted by Needham and Cowen and BofA. So we hope to see many of you soon.

我們公司深感榮幸。我們很榮幸能在推動居家辦公和居家學習，以及推動世界當前所需技術的發展方面發揮重要作用。我們意識到宏觀經濟風險，但我們的業務比以往任何時候都更加多元化、更具韌性，我們預計在下半年財年將繼續保持強勁勢頭。在此期間，我們將與投資者保持密切聯繫。我和Gary將在幾週後參加伯恩斯坦會議。我也會出席Needham & Cowen和美國銀行舉辦的活動。希望很快能見到大家。

Stay safe. Be healthy. Mike, let's close the call.

注意安全，保持健康。麥克，我們結束通話吧。

Okay. Thanks, Dan, and we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of our call is going to be available on the website by 5:00 p.m. Pacific Time. And we would like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。謝謝丹，也謝謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。本次電話會議的錄音將於太平洋時間下午5點前在網站上提供。感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。