應用材料 (AMAT) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加應用材料公司收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President.

我現在想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Applied's Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2019 Earnings Call, which is being recorded.

下午好，感謝您參加正在記錄中的應用材料公司 2019 財年第四季度財報電話會議。

Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

加入我的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Dickerson；和我們的首席財務官 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到可能導致我們實際結果不同的風險和不確定性的影響。

Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

有關風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 提交給 SEC 的 10-Q 表和 8-K 文件中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的對賬幻燈片中可以找到對 GAAP 措施的對賬，這些幻燈片可在我們網站應用材料的 IR 頁面上找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給 Gary Dickerson。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，邁克。

I'm pleased to report our results for the quarter were at the top end of guidance driven by a healthy uptick in demand for semiconductor equipment combined with strong execution across the company.

我很高興地報告，由於對半導體設備的需求健康增長以及整個公司的強大執行力，我們本季度的業績處於指導的最高端。

This rounds out a solid year of performance in a challenging environment as we navigated down cycles in both memory and display.

在充滿挑戰的環境中，我們在內存和顯示的周期中導航下來，這使我們在這一年取得了穩定的表現。

These results would not be possible without the hard work and dedication of Applied Materials employees around the world.

如果沒有全球應用材料公司員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，這些成果是不可能實現的。

I would like to thank them for the passion they bring to work every day and congratulate them on their accomplishments this year.

我要感謝他們每天為工作帶來的熱情，並祝賀他們今年取得的成就。

As this is our year-end call, I'll begin with a brief recap of the past 12 months before providing our perspective on the current market environment.

由於這是我們的年終電話會議，我將首先簡要回顧過去 12 個月，然後再提供我們對當前市場環境的看法。

I'll then talk about the broader context for the industry, including the major growth drivers and inflections that will shape our markets over the next several years.

然後，我將討論該行業的更廣泛背景，包括將在未來幾年塑造我們市場的主要增長動力和拐點。

I'll conclude by summarizing the key elements of our strategy and outlining the investments we're making to put Applied in the best position for the tremendous opportunities ahead.

最後，我將總結我們戰略的關鍵要素，並概述我們為使 Applied 處於最佳位置以迎接未來巨大機遇而進行的投資。

Applied's fiscal 2019 was shaped by the first significant pullback in customer investments since 2013.

自 2013 年以來，應用材料公司的 2019 財年客戶投資首次大幅回落。

However, this provides a good illustration of how the semiconductor industry is evolving.

然而，這很好地說明了半導體行業是如何發展的。

As I have highlighted before, the market for semi equipment and services is now significantly larger and less volatile than it was in the past.

正如我之前強調的那樣，半導體設備和服務市場現在比過去大得多，波動性也小了很多。

If the second calendar quarter of 2019 proves to be the low point of this spending cycle, then the downturn lasted 4 quarters and our quarterly revenue at the trough was approximately 20% lower than at the peak.

如果 2019 年第二個日曆季度被證明是這個支出週期的低點，那麼低迷期持續了 4 個季度，我們在低谷時的季度收入比高峰時低約 20%。

In contrast, during the industry cycles that took place between 2000 and 2013, our average peak-to-trough revenue drop was more than twice that magnitude.

相比之下，在 2000 年至 2013 年的行業周期中，我們平均從峰谷到谷底的收入下降幅度是該幅度的兩倍多。

This cycle was different, in large part, due to the growth and diversification of demand drivers spanning consumer and enterprise end markets.

這個週期在很大程度上是不同的，這在很大程度上是由於跨越消費者和企業終端市場的需求驅動因素的增長和多樣化。

It's also important to note that the fundamental dynamics of the memory market are healthier through this cycle.

還需要注意的是，內存市場的基本動態在這個週期中更加健康。

The memory makers are highly focused, making disciplined investments in capacity and continuing to drive their technology road maps forward.

內存製造商高度專注，對容量進行有紀律的投資，並繼續推動他們的技術路線圖向前發展。

As well as a more robust core market, Applied is a more resilient company that's balanced across different areas of the market and can perform well in a variety of conditions.

除了更強大的核心市場外，Applied 是一家更具彈性的公司，在市場的不同領域保持平衡，並且可以在各種條件下表現良好。

Thanks to the breadth of our portfolio, our semi equipment business is outperforming both the wafer fab equipment market and our direct peers this year.

由於我們產品組合的廣度，我們的半導體設備業務今年的表現優於晶圓廠設備市場和我們的直接同行。

Fiscal 2019 was also a record year for Applied Global Services.

2019 財年也是 Applied Global Services 創紀錄的一年。

In fact, we're growing our services revenue significantly faster than the underlying equipment businesses.

事實上，我們的服務收入增長速度明顯快於基礎設備業務。

Over the past 12 months, we've grown our installed base of semi and display equipment by about 2,000 systems to almost 43,000.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們的半導體和顯示設備安裝基礎增加了大約 2,000 個系統，達到近 43,000 個。

We have also increased the number of installed base tools covered by long-term service agreement, which generate subscription-style revenues by around 30% since 2017.

我們還增加了長期服務協議涵蓋的已安裝基礎工具的數量，這些工具自 2017 年以來產生了約 30% 的訂閱式收入。

Overall, 45% of our FY '19 revenues came from sources other than new 300-millimeter equipment sales.

總體而言，我們 19 財年收入的 45% 來自新的 300 毫米設備銷售以外的其他來源。

This is up from 41% just 2 years ago.

這比 2 年前的 41% 有所上升。

In terms of our near-term outlook, while I don't want to speculate about the exact shape or timing of the market recovery, I can characterize what we currently see with 3 observations.

就我們的近期前景而言，雖然我不想推測市場復甦的確切形狀或時間，但我可以用 3 個觀察來描述我們目前所看到的情況。

First, strong investment by foundry/logic customers driven by demand in key geographies, an acceleration of the 5G road map and commitment to advance the leading edge.

首先，在關鍵地區的需求、5G 路線圖的加速和推進領先優勢的承諾推動下，代工/邏輯客戶的強勁投資。

Second, early signs of a recovery in NAND investments.

其次，NAND投資復甦的早期跡象。

And third, positive progression of the ongoing inventory correction in DRAM.

第三，DRAM 庫存調整的積極進展。

Because of the strength seen in recent months, we're revising our estimates for 2019 wafer fab equipment upwards.

由於近幾個月來的強勁勢頭，我們正在上調對 2019 年晶圓廠設備的估計。

We now believe 2019 spending levels could be similar to 2017.

我們現在認為 2019 年的支出水平可能與 2017 年相似。

Based on the visibility we have today, we're optimistic about 2020, with an expectation of sustained strength in foundry/logic and a step-up in memory investments during the year with NAND recovering ahead of DRAM.

根據我們今天的能見度，我們對 2020 年持樂觀態度，預計晶圓代工/邏輯將持續強勁，年內內存投資將增加，NAND 將在 DRAM 之前復甦。

In display, as anticipated, FY '19 revenues were down 1/3 relative to FY '18.

正如預期的那樣，與 18 財年相比，19 財年的收入下降了 1/3。

At this point, we expect FY '20 revenues to be at similar levels as we bounce along the bottom of this market cycle.

在這一點上，我們預計 20 財年的收入將處於類似水平，因為我們在這個市場週期的底部反彈。

In this environment, our display business remains profitable, even as we fund R&D for next-generation products.

在這種環境下，即使我們為下一代產品的研發提供資金，我們的顯示器業務仍保持盈利。

We still believe the display market provides good long-term growth opportunities for Applied as the industry becomes increasingly technology intensive.

我們仍然認為，隨著行業變得越來越技術密集，顯示器市場為應用材料公司提供了良好的長期增長機會。

We remain focused on working closely with customers to drive their technology road maps forward and ensuring we have the right portfolio of products in place to outperform the market when investment levels pick up.

我們仍然專注於與客戶密切合作，推動他們的技術路線圖向前發展，並確保我們擁有合適的產品組合，以便在投資水平回升時超越市場。

Looking beyond the cycle, at the broader context for the electronics industry, it's important to recognize that we are in a period of transition as major new growth drivers emerge in the form of IoT, big data and artificial intelligence.

超越週期，在電子行業的更廣泛背景下，重要的是要認識到我們正處於轉型期，因為主要的新增長動力以物聯網、大數據和人工智能的形式出現。

Over the next decade, we expect hundreds of billions of edge devices to be deployed, an explosion of data generation and new approaches to computing to sustainably process and create value from all the data that's available.

在接下來的十年中，我們預計將部署數千億台邊緣設備、數據生成的爆炸式增長和新的計算方法，以可持續地處理所有可用數據並創造價值。

AI and big data have the potential to transform every area of the economy and our lives.

人工智能和大數據有可能改變經濟和我們生活的方方面面。

These inflections will also have a profound impact on the semiconductor industry.

這些變化也將對半導體行業產生深遠的影響。

As we move from the age of general-purpose computing to demand-specific approaches, new system architectures and new types of semiconductor devices are needed in the data center and at the edge.

隨著我們從通用計算時代轉向特定需求的方法，數據中心和邊緣需要新的系統架構和新型半導體設備。

A major factor in the adoption rate of AI will be how quickly we can realize improvements in the power, performance, area and cost or PPAC of the foundational semiconductor technologies.

人工智能採用率的一個主要因素將是我們能夠多快實現基礎半導體技術的功率、性能、面積和成本或 PPAC 的改進。

However, at a time when PPAC improvements are on the critical path, classic Moore's Law scaling is slowing.

然而，在 PPAC 改進進入關鍵路徑之際，經典摩爾定律的擴展速度正在放緩。

To drive the PPAC road map in the future, a new playbook for semiconductor design and manufacturing is needed.

為了在未來推動 PPAC 路線圖，需要一本新的半導體設計和製造手冊。

This playbook has 5 main elements, new architectures, new devices and 3D structures, new materials, new ways to shrink feature geometries and new ways to connect chips together.

這本劇本有 5 個主要元素，新架構、新設備和 3D 結構、新材料、縮小特徵幾何形狀的新方法以及將芯片連接在一起的新方法。

Then to accelerate implementation of this new playbook, I strongly believe the ecosystem needs to work together differently by breaking down traditional industry silos.

然後，為了加速這個新劇本的實施，我堅信生態系統需要通過打破傳統的行業孤島以不同的方式協同工作。

At Applied, we've aligned our strategy and investments around this vision of the future.

在 Applied，我們圍繞這一未來願景調整了我們的戰略和投資。

While we are carefully managing all non-R&D spending, we're investing more than ever in new capabilities and products to accelerate the new playbook.

在我們謹慎管理所有非研發支出的同時，我們比以往任何時候都更多地投資於新功能和產品，以加快新劇本的發展。

We recently announced the official opening of our META Center in New York.

我們最近宣布我們在紐約的 META 中心正式開業。

This state-of-the-art facility enables us to work with customers and partners in new ways, accelerating the transfer of novel technologies from lab to fab.

這個最先進的設施使我們能夠以新的方式與客戶和合作夥伴合作，加速新技術從實驗室到工廠的轉移。

I'm equally excited about how our future product pipeline is shaping up.

我同樣對我們未來產品線的形成方式感到興奮。

In addition to our traditional unit process equipment, which spans deposition, removal, modification and analysis of materials, we're developing entirely new categories of products that we call Integrated Materials Solutions.

除了我們傳統的單元工藝設備（涵蓋材料的沉積、去除、改性和分析）之外，我們還在開發全新的產品類別，我們稱之為集成材料解決方案。

The applications for these IMS products include: co-optimization of deposition, removal and analysis, all the way to creating, shaping, modifying and analyzing new structures and devices.

這些 IMS 產品的應用包括：沉積、去除和分析的協同優化，一直到創建、成型、修改和分析新結構和設備。

We'll share more details as we bring new products to market in 2020 and 2021.

我們將在 2020 年和 2021 年將新產品推向市場時分享更多細節。

For the time being, let me highlight a few examples of how we are defending our leadership positions, winning new applications and expanding our available market in the near term.

暫時，讓我強調幾個例子，說明我們如何在短期內捍衛我們的領導地位、贏得新的應用程序並擴大我們的可用市場。

In DRAM, customers are introducing advanced transistors and interconnects to improve performance and low power.

在 DRAM 中，客戶正在引入先進的晶體管和互連，以提高性能和降低功耗。

These technologies where Applied has long held leadership were originally developed for logic applications and are now migrating to memory.

應用材料公司長期以來一直處於領先地位的這些技術最初是為邏輯應用開發的，現在正在遷移到內存中。

Growing demand for specialty nodes that serve the IoT, communications, automotive, power and image sensor markets is also driving robust investments in capacity and new technology.

對服務於物聯網、通信、汽車、電源和圖像傳感器市場的專業節點的需求不斷增長，這也推動了對容量和新技術的強勁投資。

PPAC improvements are equally important for these applications, and we're finding new ways to migrate our leading-edge technologies into these specialty markets.

PPAC 改進對於這些應用程序同樣重要，我們正在尋找新的方法將我們的領先技術遷移到這些專業市場。

Advanced patterning is a critical enabler for shrinking feature geometries which translates to a large, growing opportunity in foundry/logic and DRAM.

先進的圖案化是縮小特徵幾何形狀的關鍵推動因素，這在代工/邏輯和 DRAM 中轉化為巨大的、不斷增長的機會。

The patterning road map is increasingly enabled by new materials as well as co-optimization of materials deposition and removal.

新材料以及材料沉積和去除的共同優化越來越使圖案化路線圖成為可能。

As a result, we are expanding our positions in memory and winning new applications at foundry/logic customers.

因此，我們正在擴大我們在內存領域的地位，並在代工廠/邏輯客戶中贏得新的應用。

And in markets where we have plenty of room to grow, we're also building momentum.

在我們有足夠增長空間的市場中，我們也在建立勢頭。

In optical wafer inspection, we're winning new positions at foundry/logic customers.

在光學晶圓檢測方面，我們正在為代工廠/邏輯客戶贏得新職位。

And in etch, we have recently won multiple critical applications in NAND as well as in foundry/logic, where we delivered record etch revenues for the year.

在蝕刻方面，我們最近贏得了 NAND 以及代工/邏輯領域的多個關鍵應用，我們在這些領域實現了當年創紀錄的蝕刻收入。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, let me quickly summarize.

在我把電話交給丹之前，讓我快速總結一下。

First, we're seeing a strong finish to 2019 driven by a healthy uptick in foundry/logic spending.

首先，由於代工/邏輯支出的健康增長，我們看到了 2019 年的強勁收官。

Although it's still too early to call the shape and timing of the recovery in memory, we're encouraged by the signs we're seeing.

雖然現在說記憶恢復的形狀和時間還為時過早，但我們看到的跡象讓我們感到鼓舞。

Second, we have a strong, positive point of view about the opportunities the AI, big data era will create for the industry and Applied.

其次，我們對人工智能、大數據時代將為行業和應用創造的機遇持強烈而積極的看法。

While we're tightly controlling non-R&D-related spending, we are investing more than ever in new products and capabilities that put us in winning positions for the future.

雖然我們嚴格控制與研發無關的支出，但我們比以往任何時候都更多地投資於新產品和能力，使我們能夠在未來贏得勝利。

Third, the technical collaboration between Applied and our customers has never been stronger.

第三，應用材料公司與客戶之間的技術合作從未如此緊密。

And we're working with a broader set of customers and partners to accelerate the time to market for new, game-changing technologies.

我們正在與更廣泛的客戶和合作夥伴合作，以加快新的、改變遊戲規則的技術的上市時間。

Now I'll turn the call over to Dan.

現在我將把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gary.

謝謝，加里。

Applied delivered another solid quarter in Q4, with revenue, margins and earnings in the upper end of our guidance range.

Applied 在第四季度又實現了一個穩健的季度，收入、利潤率和收益處於我們指導範圍的上限。

I like the way we ended our fiscal year, and I particularly like the way we're set up for the year ahead.

我喜歡我們結束財政年度的方式，我特別喜歡我們為來年做準備的方式。

On today's call, I'll summarize our fiscal 2019, give you my sense of the business entering fiscal 2020 and share our outlook for Q1.

在今天的電話會議上，我將總結我們的 2019 財年，讓您了解進入 2020 財年的業務，並分享我們對第一季度的展望。

In 2019, our end markets were softer across semi, display and the transactional portion of our services business.

2019 年，我們的終端市場在我們服務業務的半成品、顯示和交易部分方面較為疲軟。

Despite that, we delivered revenue of $14.6 billion, and our quarterly revenue and earnings were stable, which demonstrates the resilience of our broad portfolio, even in a memory correction year.

儘管如此，我們實現了 146 億美元的收入，並且我們的季度收入和收益保持穩定，這表明我們廣泛的投資組合具有彈性，即使在記憶修正年也是如此。

In fact, we earned significantly more in every quarter in fiscal 2019 than we did in all of fiscal 2013, which is the most recent year that included a significant equipment correction.

事實上，我們在 2019 財年每個季度的收入都遠高於 2013 財年全年的收入，這是包括重大設備調整在內的最近一年。

I also like our relative performance.

我也喜歡我們的相對錶現。

In calendar 2019, we expect to significantly outperform our core market and our most direct peers.

在 2019 年日曆中，我們預計將顯著超越我們的核心市場和最直接的同行。

Specifically, while the equipment market will be down by mid-teen percentage, we expect semi equipment plus AGS to be down in the mid-single digits year-over-year.

具體來說，雖然設備市場將下降 10% 左右，但我們預計半設備加上 AGS 將同比下降中個位數。

Looking ahead to 2020 and beyond, we have high confidence in the future growth of our markets and the unique opportunities Applied has to enable our customers' road maps.

展望 2020 年及以後，我們對市場的未來增長以及應用材料公司實現客戶路線圖的獨特機會充滿信心。

As a result, we invested a record amount in R&D this year while reducing our spending in SG&A.

因此，我們今年在研發方面的投入創紀錄，同時減少了 SG&A 的支出。

We delivered over $3 in non-GAAP earnings per share and generated nearly $3.25 billion of cash from operations.

我們實現了超過 3 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益，並從運營中產生了近 32.5 億美元的現金。

Our capital return strategy is to fully fund our profitable growth opportunities, maintain a strong balance sheet and deliver attractive cash returns to our shareholders through dividends and dividend growth, along with opportunistic share buyback.

我們的資本回報戰略是為我們的盈利增長機會提供充分的資金，保持強勁的資產負債表，並通過股息和股息增長以及機會性股票回購為我們的股東提供有吸引力的現金回報。

In 2019, we returned nearly $3.2 billion to shareholders, equivalent to 113% of free cash flow.

2019 年，我們向股東返還了近 32 億美元，相當於自由現金流的 113%。

We returned nearly $800 million in dividends, raised the dividend by 5% and took advantage of market volatility to repurchase 60 million shares of our stock at an average price of $39.86.

我們返還了近 8 億美元的股息，將股息提高了 5%，並利用市場波動以 39.86 美元的平均價格回購了 6000 萬股我們的股票。

As a reminder, we're working to complete the acquisition of Kokusai Electric.

提醒一下，我們正在努力完成對 Kokusai Electric 的收購。

Upon close, we plan to direct most of our free cash flow towards repaying the term loan we're using to help fund the transaction.

完成後，我們計劃將大部分自由現金流用於償還我們用來幫助為交易提供資金的定期貸款。

Now I'll share my thoughts on the business environment.

現在我將分享我對商業環境的看法。

On our previous earnings call, I talked about positive leading indicators of future growth.

在我們之前的財報電話會議上，我談到了未來增長的積極領先指標。

These included inventory reductions across memory, demand elasticity in NAND and strong foundry/logic demand, both in leading edge and specialty nodes.

其中包括內存庫存減少、NAND 需求彈性以及前沿和專業節點的強勁代工/邏輯需求。

Today, I feel more positive.

今天，我感覺更積極了。

In semi, we have strong pull for our leadership products, including record demand for epitaxy and metal deposition.

在半成品方面，我們對我們的領先產品有很強的吸引力，包括對外延和金屬沉積的創紀錄需求。

We're also winning many new applications for our high-growth semi products in dielectric deposition, etch and inspection.

我們的高增長半導體產品在電介質沉積、蝕刻和檢測方面也贏得了許多新應用。

We are significantly outgrowing our markets in foundry/logic with growing strength at the leading-edge nodes and key wins in automotive and advanced packaging.

我們在晶圓代工/邏輯領域的市場增長顯著超過了我們在前沿節點的實力不斷增強，並在汽車和先進封裝領域取得了關鍵勝利。

While it's always hard to call the timing and magnitude of a recovery in memory, we think it's a matter of when, not if, and we expect NAND to lead the way.

雖然總是很難確定內存恢復的時間和幅度，但我們認為這是時間問題，而不是是否會出現問題，我們預計 NAND 將引領潮流。

In AGS, revenue was stronger than we expected in Q4, and we still expect better-than-seasonal revenue in Q1.

在 AGS 方面，第四季度的收入強於我們的預期，我們仍然預計第一季度的收入將好於季節性收入。

The subscription-like portion of AGS has momentum and will benefit from the thousands of new systems we added to our installed base in 2019.

AGS 的訂閱式部分勢頭強勁，並將受益於我們在 2019 年添加到安裝基礎中的數千個新系統。

The transactional portion of the business should strengthen as memory utilization recovers in 2020.

隨著內存利用率在 2020 年恢復，業務的交易部分應該會加強。

Rolling it all up, we're entering the new fiscal year with a backlog of $6.5 billion, which is our highest year-end backlog ever.

總而言之，我們正在進入新的財政年度，積壓 65 億美元，這是我們有史以來最高的年終積壓。

Next, I'll provide our Q1 guidance.

接下來，我將提供我們的 Q1 指導。

We expect company revenue of $4.10 billion, plus or minus $150 million, which would be up by about 9% year-over-year.

我們預計公司收入為 41 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元，同比增長約 9%。

We expect non-GAAP earnings to be in the range of $0.87 to $0.95 per share.

我們預計非 GAAP 收益將在每股 0.87 美元至 0.95 美元之間。

Within this outlook, we expect Semiconductor Systems revenue to be approximately $2.775 billion.

在此展望中，我們預計半導體系統的收入約為 27.75 億美元。

Services revenue should be about $975 million.

服務收入應約為 9.75 億美元。

And Display revenue should be around $330 million.

顯示收入應該在 3.3 億美元左右。

We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 44.6% and non-GAAP OpEx should be around $800 million.

我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 44.6%，非 GAAP 運營支出應約為 8 億美元。

In summary, I like the setup for Applied as we enter fiscal 2020.

總之，當我們進入 2020 財年時，我喜歡 Applied 的設置。

Our thesis surrounding IoT, big data and AI is being validated throughout the ecosystem, and our business outlook is transitioning from positive leading indicators to growing demand.

我們圍繞物聯網、大數據和人工智能的論文正在整個生態系統中得到驗證，我們的業務前景正在從積極的領先指標轉變為不斷增長的需求。

The investments we're making in the new playbook are strengthening our product portfolio and driving new design wins that will serve us exceptionally well as the new nodes ramp across foundry/logic, NAND and DRAM.

我們在新劇本中進行的投資正在加強我們的產品組合併推動新的設計勝利，這將為我們提供出色的服務，因為新節點跨越代工廠/邏輯、NAND 和 DRAM。

Our opportunities in the specialty nodes are also expanding.

我們在專業節點的機會也在擴大。

Our Services business delivered a record year in 2019 and is on track for solid year-over-year growth in 2020.

我們的服務業務在 2019 年實現了創紀錄的一年，並有望在 2020 年實現穩健的同比增長。

Finally, we look forward to closing the acquisition of Kokusai Electric and welcoming its talented team to Applied Materials.

最後，我們期待完成對 Kokusai Electric 的收購，並歡迎其才華橫溢的團隊加入 Applied Materials。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

現在邁克，讓我們開始問答吧。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

(Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

（操作員說明）操作員，讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 C.J. Muse with Evercore。

I know you don't want to be too specific around the timing and magnitude of recovery in memory, but was hoping perhaps you could give just a little bit more color around your product positioning for when that does come as you look at leadership product as well as some of the new products that you have in the pipeline that you expect to come to market in 2020?

我知道您不想對內存恢復的時間和幅度過於具體，但希望您可以在產品定位方面提供更多色彩，因為當您將領導力產品視為以及您預計將在 2020 年上市的一些新產品？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, C.J. So what we're seeing in memory is customers continuing to drive technology road maps this year even as they're cutting the capacity additions to help with supply and demand.

謝謝，C.J. 所以我們在內存中看到的是客戶今年繼續推動技術路線圖，即使他們正在削減容量增加以幫助滿足供需。

We really like the setup for Applied when memory spending recovers, which we think is in 2020 led by NAND.

當內存支出恢復時，我們真的很喜歡 Applied 的設置，我們認為這是 2020 年由 NAND 領導的。

So if we look at the different types of devices.

因此，如果我們查看不同類型的設備。

In DRAM, customers are moving to more advanced metal gate transistors in the periphery, and this is going to drive more demand like we saw in 28-nanometer foundry.

在 DRAM 中，客戶正在轉向外圍更先進的金屬柵極晶體管，這將推動更多需求，就像我們在 28 納米代工廠看到的那樣。

So that's really positive for us in leadership areas like epi, PVD, implant, thermal.

因此，這對我們在外延、PVD、植入、熱等領導領域非常有利。

Also, we're gaining share in etch.

此外，我們在蝕刻方面的份額正在增加。

We're also enabling new DRAM capacitor module capabilities and new patterning technologies that create large, new opportunities for Applied, where we're reducing the number of steps for multi-patterning and also improving pattern placement.

我們還啟用了新的 DRAM 電容器模塊功能和新的圖案化技術，為 Applied 創造了巨大的新機會，我們正在減少多重圖案化的步驟數量並改進圖案佈局。

So DRAM, especially with the more logic-like types of steps, really plays to our leadership positions.

因此，DRAM，尤其是具有更多類似邏輯的步驟類型，真正發揮了我們的領導地位。

And so as those nodes go forward, we're in a good position in DRAM.

因此，隨著這些節點的發展，我們在 DRAM 中處於有利地位。

In 3D NAND, as customers are scaling beyond 96 layers, we're winning new applications with etch in NAND.

在 3D NAND 中，隨著客戶擴展到超過 96 層，我們正在贏得 NAND 蝕刻的新應用。

And as you go to more layers, you need new materials, especially high-selectivity hardmasks were designed in to many of the next nodes as they ramp into high-volume manufacturing.

當您進入更多層時，您需要新材料，特別是高選擇性硬掩模被設計到許多下一個節點，因為它們進入大批量製造。

We also have momentum with Integrated Materials Solutions.

我們在集成材料解決方案方面也有動力。

One example is in NAND where we do co-optimization of new hardmask films with the Sym3 etch.

一個例子是在 NAND 中，我們使用 Sym3 蝕刻對新的硬掩模薄膜進行共同優化。

The co-optimization increases etch selectivity by about 50%.

共同優化將蝕刻選擇性提高了約 50%。

And we're seeing new dep and etch wins across multiple customers as we enable much better high aspect ratio patterning.

隨著我們實現更好的高縱橫比圖案化，我們在多個客戶中看到了新的深度和蝕刻勝利。

So there's strong pull across all the NAND customers for new materials, new products, Integrated Materials Solutions.

因此，所有 NAND 客戶都對新材料、新產品和集成材料解決方案有著強大的吸引力。

We're seeing both in NAND and in DRAM.

我們在 NAND 和 DRAM 中都看到了。

So we're optimistic.

所以我們很樂觀。

We're going to continue to drive strong growth as customers scale to future nodes.

隨著客戶擴展到未來節點，我們將繼續推動強勁增長。

If I could sneak in a quick follow-up.

如果我可以快速跟進。

Mike, you said we could do a quick one, second one.

邁克，你說我們可以做一個快速的，第二個。

On the service side, you talked about the excellent growth in your installed base.

在服務方面，您談到了安裝基礎的出色增長。

And we're coming off of fiscal '19 growth of 3%.

我們正在擺脫 19 財年 3% 的增長。

How are you thinking about the trajectory from here, particularly as utilization rates on the memory front start to move higher?

您如何看待從這裡開始的軌跡，特別是隨著內存前端的利用率開始上升？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, C.J. This is Dan.

謝謝，C.J. 這是丹。

I'll jump in and take that.

我會跳進去接受它。

So the services business is a great growth driver for us.

因此，服務業務對我們來說是一個巨大的增長動力。

It's been a steady source of revenue growth, cash flow generation.

它一直是收入增長和現金流產生的穩定來源。

I would say, over the last handful of years, this is a business that's grown at a compound rate of about 15% per year.

我想說，在過去的幾年裡，這是一項以每年約 15% 的複合速度增長的業務。

In the current downturn, current year, memory-driven downturn, utilization is falling.

在當前的低迷時期，今年，內存驅動的低迷時期，利用率正在下降。

The business is a low single-digit grower.

該企業是一個低個位數的種植者。

When you include things like refurbs and upgrades, you're a mid-single-digit grower.

當你包括翻新和升級之類的東西時，你就是一個中等個位數的種植者。

So good performance in a very difficult market that's down about mid-teens.

在一個非常困難的市場中表現如此出色，價格大約在十幾歲左右。

As we think about the performance of the business that drives those results, the long-term service agreement portion of the business this year was up mid-teens.

當我們考慮推動這些結果的業務表現時，今年業務的長期服務協議部分上升了十幾歲。

It's really the transactional portion of our services business that's fallen with industry utilization and has been a headwind to growth this year.

實際上，我們服務業務的交易部分隨著行業利用率的下降而下降，並成為今年增長的逆風。

And that's in the sort of down 10%, 11%.

這大約下降了 10%、11%。

And as we profile into 2020, we really like the setup around our services business going forward.

當我們展望 2020 年時，我們真的很喜歡圍繞我們的服務業務開展的設置。

We think we can continue to execute on the long-term service agreements and continue to drive that performance at the levels we've seen historically.

我們認為我們可以繼續執行長期服務協議，並繼續在我們歷史上看到的水平上推動該績效。

And when industry utilization recovers in memory, we would expect our transactional business to transition from a headwind of growth to a growth adder for us in 2020.

當行業利用率在內存中恢復時，我們預計我們的交易業務將在 2020 年從增長的逆風轉變為增長的助推器。

So we really like the setup and the execution of the team in this environment.

所以我們真的很喜歡這個環境中團隊的設置和執行。

We think it sets us up well for 2020.

我們認為它為 2020 年做好了準備。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Good job on the results and guidance.

在結果和指導方面做得很好。

First, Gary, can you talk about the puts and takes between OLED and LCD in your kind of flattish display outlook at this point?

首先，Gary，您能否談談在您目前平淡的顯示前景中 OLED 和 LCD 之間的取捨？

We hear Samsung Display is resuming construction of A5 and some TV fabs in China are pushing out.

我們聽說三星顯示器正在恢復 A5 的建設，而中國的一些電視工廠正在推出。

And as my follow-up, Dan, if you can talk about the OpEx profile for the remainder of the fiscal '20?

作為我的後續行動，丹，您能否談談 20 財年剩餘時間的運營支出概況？

Thanks, Atif, I'll actually take both parts of your question.

謝謝，Atif，我實際上會回答你問題的兩個部分。

So as we go to the display market and we think about how 2019 played out, it played out exactly as we expected.

因此，當我們進入顯示器市場並思考 2019 年的表現時，它的表現完全符合我們的預期。

We said down about 1/3 year-over-year and that's where we ended up.

我們說同比下降了大約 1/3，這就是我們最終的結果。

Forecast expectations were set probably 3, 6 months ago.

預測預期可能是在 3、6 個月前設定的。

Embedded in that was incremental growth off of these levels.

嵌入其中的是這些水平的增量增長。

And what really drove that incremental growth is, as we said, solid performance of the TV market into next year and the handset market would recover creating incremental growth for the company.

正如我們所說，真正推動增量增長的是電視市場到明年的穩健表現，手機市場將恢復為公司創造增量增長。

We think the handset market is going to play out exactly as expected.

我們認為手機市場將完全按照預期發展。

We're going to see recovery in the handset market.

我們將看到手機市場復甦。

What's happened in the interim in the TV side is, is we've seen several news headlines from some of our customers about delayed investments.

電視方面在此期間發生的事情是，我們已經看到一些客戶關於延遲投資的新聞頭條。

There's a bit of inventory build on the TV side.

電視方面有一些庫存。

Third-party research firm has come out and confirmed what we've been reading about in the headlines.

第三方研究公司已經出來並證實了我們在頭條新聞中看到的內容。

And our customer conversations also confirm this dynamic.

我們的客戶對話也證實了這一動態。

And so as we look forward into 2020, we think there's going to be some incremental softness on the TV side that reflects all of the news that's out in the market to date.

因此，當我們展望 2020 年時，我們認為電視方面將會出現一些漸進的疲軟，這反映了迄今為止市場上出現的所有新聞。

We expect the handset to recover as we originally expected.

我們預計手機會像我們最初預期的那樣恢復。

And that gets us a flattish profile, similar revenue levels, to what we're seeing this year.

這讓我們的形像變得平淡，收入水平與我們今年看到的相似。

That's the best way I would describe it.

這是我描述它的最好方式。

And then from an OpEx perspective, I think we're going to take this one quarter at a time.

然後從運營支出的角度來看，我認為我們將一次完成四分之一。

We came up to $800 million.

我們達到了 8 億美元。

We all know that profiling into Q2 there's the full impact of merit.

我們都知道，在第二季度進行分析會受到優點的全面影響。

And we don't get the benefit of the shutdown over the holiday season.

而且我們沒有在假期期間從停工中受益。

And so maybe that goes up incrementally to $820 million to reflect that dynamic.

因此，這可能會逐漸增加到 8.2 億美元，以反映這種動態。

That gives you a sense of where we level out on those typical seasonal aspects of transitioning from Q1 to Q2 and then we probably hover in that neighborhood for the rest of the year.

這讓您了解我們在從第一季度過渡到第二季度的典型季節性方面的平衡點，然後我們可能會在今年餘下的時間裡徘徊在那個附近。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, you talked quite a bit about your expectations around new products into next year.

加里，你談了很多關於明年新產品的期望。

I was hoping you could remind us roughly what percentage of WFE you guys serve today at Applied and how that would expand with some of these new products going into 2020 and 2021?

我希望你能大致提醒我們你們今天在 Applied 任職的 WFE 的百分比，以及隨著這些新產品中的一些進入 2020 年和 2021 年，這將如何擴大？

And kind of related to that, obviously, you seem to be picking up share nicely in 2019, what are your kind of preliminary expectations into 2020 when you think about your potential outperformance relative to the market?

與此相關，顯然，您在 2019 年的份額似乎不錯，當您考慮到相對於市場的潛在表現時，您對 2020 年的初步預期是什麼？

And then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個跟進。

Toshiya, this is Dan.

俊哉，我是丹。

On the first one, the percentage of the addressable market that we focus on, it's going to vary from year-to-year depending on the spend mix and profile of our customers.

在第一個方面，我們關注的目標市場的百分比，每年都會有所不同，具體取決於我們客戶的支出組合和概況。

But the best way to think about it is low to mid-60s part of WFE are markets that we can address in any given year.

但考慮它的最佳方式是，WFE 的低至 60 年代中期是我們在任何一年都可以解決的市場。

That's going to vary and change again from year-to-year depending on that profile mix.

根據配置文件的組合，這將每年發生變化並再次發生變化。

And I think some of the new products that we end up bringing to market, I think it's going to help drive growth in share in the current markets that we serve.

我認為我們最終推向市場的一些新產品，我認為這將有助於推動我們服務的當前市場的份額增長。

Maybe there's some adjacencies we begin to look at.

也許我們開始關註一些鄰接關係。

Maybe it pushes it towards the higher end of the range over time, but it's still going to be in that low to mid-60 ZIP code depending on any given year and what customers happen to be spending on.

也許它會隨著時間的推移將其推向范圍的高端，但根據任何給定的年份以及客戶碰巧花錢的情況，它仍將處於低至 60 的郵政編碼中。

Yes.

是的。

Toshiya, I guess, I can also add a little bit of color.

Toshiya，我猜，我也可以加一點顏色。

I think relative to the different areas where we compete today, definitely, we're driving innovations and unit processes around deposition, removal, modification and analysis.

我認為相對於我們今天競爭的不同領域，毫無疑問，我們正在推動圍繞沉積、去除、修改和分析的創新和單元流程。

We have momentum with some new products and we have some major new products in the pipeline that we're driving.

我們有一些新產品的勢頭，我們正在推動一些主要的新產品。

But beyond that, as we've talked about before, you've got AI, big data, a need for 1,000x improvement in performance per watt and classic Moore's Law 2D scaling not being enough really to meet those needs for performance per watt.

但除此之外，正如我們之前談到的那樣，您需要人工智能、大數據、每瓦性能需要提高 1,000 倍，而經典的摩爾定律 2D 縮放不足以真正滿足這些對每瓦性能的需求。

So we're not only driving unit processes.

因此，我們不僅在推動單元流程。

One thing that we've also been driving are the Integrated Materials Solutions.

我們也一直在推動的一件事是集成材料解決方案。

We're co-optimizing steps and even integrating multiple steps in a single system under high vacuum.

我們正在共同優化步驟，甚至在高真空下將多個步驟集成到一個系統中。

And we have really strong pull from customers, again, not just for unit processes where, again, I want to emphasize, we're driving very hard with some big, new products in the pipeline.

我們再次從客戶那裡獲得了強大的吸引力，而不僅僅是單元流程，我想再次強調，我們正在非常努力地推動一些大型新產品的開發。

Some we already see some adoption, early momentum.

有些我們已經看到了一些採用，早期的勢頭。

But beyond that, it's really how do we enable not just materials or removal, how do we create structures, shape structures, modify and analyze structures.

但除此之外，這實際上是我們如何不僅啟用材料或移除，我們如何創建結構、塑造結構、修改和分析結構。

And I spend a lot of my time with R&D leaders across our customer base, tremendously strong pull for improvements in power and performance.

我花了很多時間與我們客戶群中的研發負責人一起，極大地推動了動力和性能的提高。

And Applied is in the best position, both with unit processes and with these integrated processes to enable the future.

應用材料公司處於最佳位置，無論是通過單元流程還是通過這些集成流程來實現未來。

So tremendous, tremendous pull for both of those different areas.

對於這兩個不同的領域來說，如此巨大、巨大的吸引力。

And then if I can squeeze one in as a follow-up.

然後，如果我可以擠一個作為後續行動。

Dan, can you give us an update on the Kokusai acquisition?

丹，你能給我們介紹一下收購國際機場的最新情況嗎？

What are some of the regulatory hurdles that you still need to overcome?

您還需要克服哪些監管障礙？

And then, I guess, with the acquisition, you're obviously gaining some exposure to batch processing.

然後，我想，通過收購，你顯然會接觸到批處理。

But when you look across your product and technology portfolio at this point, do you feel like it's complete or is future M&A still on the table?

但是，當您在這一點上查看您的產品和技術組合時，您是否覺得它已經完成或未來的併購仍然在桌面上？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Toshiya.

謝謝，東也。

I'll jump in on the first part, transition to Gary on the second part.

我會在第一部分加入，在第二部分過渡到 Gary。

For Kokusai, there's no change in the timing of the transaction.

對 Kokusai 而言，交易時間沒有變化。

We announced a 12-month time line when we announced the transaction.

我們在宣布交易時宣布了 12 個月的時間表。

We've received regulatory approval in Ireland, in Israel.

我們已經在愛爾蘭和以色列獲得了監管部門的批准。

We had 4 other geographies.

我們有 4 個其他地區。

We're continuing to stay close to the regulators in those geographies.

我們將繼續與這些地區的監管機構保持密切聯繫。

And we like the progress we're making, but no change to the time line from what we announced when we announced the transaction.

我們喜歡我們正在取得的進展，但與我們宣布交易時宣布的時間表相比沒有改變。

Yes, Toshiya.

是的，東芝。

Relative to Kokusai, we still see it as a great opportunity to expand our markets with batch technology and services to accelerate innovation for customers.

相對於 Kokusai，我們仍將其視為利用批量技術和服務拓展市場以加速客戶創新的絕佳機會。

So nothing's changed in all of the feedback we're getting from customers versus what we saw at the beginning relative to the opportunity to create value.

因此，我們從客戶那裡得到的所有反饋與我們一開始看到的與創造價值的機會有關的反饋都沒有任何變化。

Relative to M&A, our strategy really hasn't changed.

相對於併購，我們的戰略確實沒有改變。

We continue to focus on 3 things: a great financial return, synergy to accelerate our customer value and also our growth and market leadership potential.

我們繼續專注於三件事：巨大的財務回報、協同效應以加速我們的客戶價值以及我們的增長和市場領導潛力。

And we still believe we have a very good organic growth opportunity, so the bar remains very high.

而且我們仍然相信我們有很好的有機增長機會，所以門檻仍然很高。

And we're not needy for M&A, but anything that we look at that fits that criteria, we definitely will continue to investigate and move forward if we find something that fits that criteria.

而且我們不需要併購，但是我們看到的任何符合該標準的東西，如果我們找到符合該標準的東西，我們肯定會繼續調查並繼續前進。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

Congrats on the good results.

恭喜取得好成績。

I have 2 of them.

我有 2 個。

One is for either Dan or Gary.

一個是給丹或加里的。

I think in the past, you guys have spoken about data analytics, talking about 2-year out WFE.

我認為在過去，你們談論過數據分析，談論 2 年的 WFE。

Maybe you want to think about it, maybe not.

也許你想考慮一下，也許不想。

If not, I'm just trying to put numbers around it.

如果沒有，我只是想在它周圍加上數字。

If next year, all else being the same as this year, if NAND WFE is up 10%, what kind of growth expectation should we expect for AMAT's NAND business or your semi business?

如果明年，其他都和今年一樣，如果NAND WFE增長10%，我們對AMAT的NAND業務或你的半導體業務應該有什麼樣的增長預期？

And then as a quick follow-up for Dan, I think you mentioned this.

然後作為丹的快速跟進，我想你提到了這一點。

In your Jan quarter guidance, did you give any breakdown between foundry/logic, DRAM and NAND?

在您的 1 月季度指導中，您是否給出了代工/邏輯、DRAM 和 NAND 之間的任何細分？

And Krish, I didn't understand the first part of your question.

還有 Krish，我不明白你問題的第一部分。

You said something about analytics, but then I heard you talk about NAND.

你說了一些關於分析的東西，但後來我聽說你談到了 NAND。

So I don't know if we just -- I know you're in Europe.

所以我不知道我們是否只是——我知道你在歐洲。

Maybe we missed a syllable.

也許我們漏掉了一個音節。

Let me just make it simple.

讓我簡單點。

If in 2020, everything else being equal, if NAND WFE is up 10% -- I'm just putting some numbers out there -- how should we expect AMAT's semiconductor business driven by NAND to perform or outperform?

如果在 2020 年，其他一切都一樣，如果 NAND WFE 增長 10%——我只是在這裡放一些數字——我們應該如何期望 AMAT 由 NAND 驅動的半導體業務表現或優於大盤？

And also on the Jan quarter, did you give a breakdown between foundry/logic, DRAM and NAND?

還有在 1 月季度，您是否對代工/邏輯、DRAM 和 NAND 進行了細分？

Okay.

好的。

So thanks, Krish.

所以謝謝，克里希。

From a WFE standpoint, we don't want to get into guides around next year.

從 WFE 的角度來看，我們不想在明年左右進入指南。

But what I would say is, since Gary has come into the company, we've become very balanced as a company in terms of our penetration of device types.

但我想說的是，自從 Gary 進入公司以來，就我們對設備類型的滲透而言，我們作為一家公司已經變得非常平衡。

This is a very balanced company.

這是一家非常平衡的公司。

I think we're seeing the benefits of that in this environment as we inflect from one device type to another.

我認為當我們從一種設備類型轉換到另一種設備類型時，我們在這種環境中看到了這樣做的好處。

And I think it serves the company well.

我認為它很好地為公司服務。

In a time of uncertainty, the company has worked hard, made a lot of investments to create that very balanced portfolio by device type.

在充滿不確定性的時期，該公司努力工作，進行了大量投資，以按設備類型創建非常平衡的產品組合。

And so without being specific, I would just leave you with that contextual thought that we're fairly agnostic to how these device types flash in one quarter or another.

因此，在沒有具體說明的情況下，我只想讓您想到我們對這些設備類型在一個季度或另一個季度如何閃爍相當不可知論。

And I think that gives you some parameters on how to think about things.

我認為這為您提供了一些關於如何思考事物的參數。

From a guidance standpoint, we don't guide by device type.

從指導的角度來看，我們不按設備類型進行指導。

But the thing I would highlight is, next quarter will be a record quarter for us in foundry/logic based on the guidance that we've given, but we typically don't guide by device type.

但我要強調的是，根據我們給出的指導，下個季度將是我們在代工/邏輯方面創紀錄的一個季度，但我們通常不會按設備類型進行指導。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Yes.

是的。

Congratulations on the strong results.

祝賀你取得了不錯的成績。

Gary, I guess my first question.

加里，我想我的第一個問題。

You guys did a good job kind of talking about trends relative to device type.

你們在談論與設備類型相關的趨勢方面做得很好。

I'd like to get an update from you just on China for this calendar year.

我想從你那裡得到關於這個日曆年中國的最新消息。

And then when you look out to 2020, how important is growth from China relative to your optimism next year?

然後，當您展望 2020 年時，相對於您對明年的樂觀態度，中國的增長有多重要？

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的問題。

Our view on China is pretty similar to what we've communicated before.

我們對中國的看法與我們之前所傳達的非常相似。

The domestic China market is incrementally stronger than our view at the beginning of the year, within the range of what we had expected, but incrementally stronger.

中國國內市場在年初的預期範圍內逐漸強於我們的預期，但在我們預期的範圍內，但逐漸增強。

And we now anticipate domestic China will be up from last year to around $6.5 billion.

我們現在預計中國國內將比去年增加至約 65 億美元。

Longer term, I've been in many meetings and conferences over the last several years, and my message is the same today as it's been over the last several years.

從長遠來看，過去幾年我參加了許多會議和會議，我今天的信息與過去幾年一樣。

We still expect steady growth in China.

我們仍預計中國將穩步增長。

So we think next year will be another year of investments.

所以我們認為明年將是又一個投資年。

But we don't see hockey sticks.

但我們沒有看到曲棍球棒。

Again, what we do is we look at leading indicators for all of the different projects, either domestic or international.

同樣，我們所做的是查看所有不同項目的領先指標，無論是國內還是國際。

And again, our view is, again, very, very similar to what I've talked about in the past.

再一次，我們的觀點與我過去所說的非常非常相似。

We think there's going to be steady growth.

我們認為會有穩定的增長。

We're positive about the market.

我們對市場持樂觀態度。

We're positive about our position in the market.

我們對我們在市場上的地位持積極態度。

Our share continues to be healthy and accretive to our overall global market share.

我們的份額繼續保持健康並增加了我們的整體全球市場份額。

So that's kind of the top-level view for China.

這就是中國的頂級觀點。

And just to add a couple of things to what Gary said, John.

約翰，在加里所說的內容中添加幾件事。

As you think about our planning, we always have base cases, we always have upsides.

當您考慮我們的計劃時，我們總是有基本案例，我們總是有優勢。

We'll be ready to respond if there's upside to our base case, but that's not currently baked into our planning assumptions.

如果我們的基本情況有上升空間，我們將準備好做出回應，但這目前還沒有納入我們的計劃假設中。

And Gary has it exactly right.

加里完全正確。

We've been talking for several years now about slow, steady development of an ecosystem there, investing in technology road maps.

幾年來，我們一直在談論那裡的生態系統緩慢而穩定的發展，投資於技術路線圖。

We saw it last year.

我們去年看到了。

We see a follow-through on it this year.

今年我們看到了它的後續行動。

We'll see a follow-through on it again next year.

我們將在明年再次看到它的後續行動。

And we're not planning for any hockey sticks associated with investments from that geography.

而且我們沒有計劃與該地區的投資相關的任何曲棍球棒。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Then as my follow-up, Gary.

然後作為我的後續行動，加里。

Just going back to your comments about foundry/logic looking sustainable going into calendar year '20.

回到您對 20 日曆年看起來可持續的代工/邏輯的評論。

I guess just given the recent CapEx raise from TSMC and sort of the implied run rate from calendar fourth quarter, I guess there's a lot of concern in the investment community that perhaps from Q4 run rate levels things will have to come down as you go into 2020.

我想鑑於台積電最近的資本支出增加以及日曆第四季度的隱含運行率，我猜投資界有很多擔憂，也許從第四季度的運行率水平開始，隨著你進入2020 年。

I'd like to hear your view on that.

我想听聽你對此的看法。

And if foundry weakens in the back half of next year just because it's so strong now, do you think logic sort of picks up the slack?

如果代工在明年下半年走弱只是因為它現在如此強大，你認為邏輯會彌補這一缺陷嗎？

Is your comment about sustainability a full year figure comment or kind of a current run rate level comment?

您對可持續性的評論是全年數字評論還是當前運行率水平評論？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Let me jump in on that and give you my perspective.

讓我跳進去，給你我的觀點。

So what we see in the foundry/logic right now, I would consider and characterize as demand-led.

因此，我們現在在代工廠/邏輯中看到的情況，我會考慮並將其描述為需求主導。

We had a solid Q4 in the foundry/logic market.

我們在代工/邏輯市場的第四季度表現穩健。

Implicit in the guide for Q1 is a record foundry/logic quarter for this company.

第一季度指南中隱含的是該公司創紀錄的代工/邏輯季度。

We ended the year with backlog at record levels.

我們以創紀錄的積壓水平結束了這一年。

So the foundry/logic view, we see follow through into next year, and it's not a one quarter phenomenon.

所以代工/邏輯的觀點，我們會看到明年，這不是一個四分之一的現象。

There's strong pull from customers for the tools.

客戶對這些工具的吸引力很大。

It's multiple customers and multiple nodes, which gives us a sense of comfort.

是多客戶多節點，給我們一種舒服的感覺。

We take a look at the foundry market and one foundry customer well into the ramp of N7, volume production at N7 plus, N5 in risk production, volume production in the first half of 2020 and N6 risk production in the first half of '20, volume production in the second half of 2020.

我們看一下代工市場和一個代工客戶進入 N7 的坡道，N7 plus 的量產，N5 的風險生產，2020 年上半年的量產和 20 年上半年的 N6 風險生產， 2020年下半年量產。

You could make other similar comments about leading-edge technology nodes ramping at other foundry/logic customers exposed to the leading edge, so multiple customers, multiple nodes.

您可以就前沿技術節點在其他暴露於前沿的晶圓代工/邏輯客戶（例如多個客戶，多個節點）中的增長發表其他類似的評論。

In addition to seeing strength on the leading edge, continue to see strength on trailing node geometries and specialty nodes.

除了看到前沿的實力，繼續看到尾隨節點幾何和專業節點的實力。

That continues.

這繼續。

And while we don't have perfect visibility for the full year, we're very positive on the foundry/logic market over the long run.

雖然我們對全年沒有完美的知名度，但從長遠來看，我們對代工/邏輯市場非常樂觀。

We are layering in the next wave of compute in the semiconductor industry to complement what is already there in the form of PC demand and mobile compute demand.

我們正在半導體行業的下一波計算浪潮中進行分層，以補充 PC 需求和移動計算需求方面已經存在的需求。

We've got new architectures hitting data centers, lots of new tapeouts.

我們有新的架構衝擊數據中心，許多新的流片。

Cloud demand is recovering, 5G beginning to kick in.

雲需求正在復蘇，5G 開始啟動。

We see a proliferation of intelligent edge devices and auto is growing.

我們看到智能邊緣設備的激增，汽車也在增長。

And so as we take a step back, we see the strength continuing into next year.

因此，當我們退後一步時，我們看到這種力量會持續到明年。

We're really positive about the long run.

從長遠來看，我們真的很樂觀。

But as I provide a little more context on 2020, the company is performing well.

但當我提供更多關於 2020 年的背景信息時，該公司表現良好。

We talked about the backlog entering the year.

我們談到了進入今年的積壓工作。

We talked about strength in foundry/logic.

我們談到了代工/邏輯方面的實力。

We talked about AGS setup and looks good as we profile into next year.

我們談到了 AGS 的設置，並且在我們展望明年時看起來不錯。

Swing factor next year for us is timing of the memory recovery.

對我們來說明年的搖擺因素是記憶恢復的時機。

For us, it's a matter of when, not if.

對我們來說，這是時間問題，而不是是否。

And so it's really tough to determine the timing and magnitude of that.

所以很難確定它的時間和規模。

And we'll stay close to the market, stay close to our customers.

我們將貼近市場，貼近客戶。

And as new information becomes available, we'll try to be as open and transparent as we can be to help the investors.

隨著新信息的出現，我們將盡量保持公開和透明，以幫助投資者。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Nice job on the quarterly execution.

在季度執行方面做得很好。

On the better performance in AGS in the October quarter and a strong outlook into January, I would assume that the long-term subscription part of the model is very predictable.

關於 10 月季度 AGS 的更好表現以及 1 月的強勁前景，我認為該模型的長期訂閱部分是非常可預測的。

So was the incremental strength the transactional business maybe starting to come back as some of your customer utilization start to rise?

那麼，隨著您的一些客戶利用率開始上升，交易業務的增量實力是否可能開始回升？

Are they bringing back some idle capacity?

他們是否帶回了一些閒置產能？

And if it is that, is it more foundry/logic or memory-driven?

如果是這樣，它是更多的代工廠/邏輯還是內存驅動？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Harlan.

謝謝，哈蘭。

You're right.

你是對的。

The long-term service agreement part of the business is continuing to chug along.

該業務的長期服務協議部分正在繼續推進。

We really like the performance, and that's against the backdrop of a tough market.

我們真的很喜歡這種表現，這是在市場艱難的背景下進行的。

We talked about the transactional nature of the business, transactional spares, last quarter being a bit of a temporary dynamic with a limited number of customers.

我們談到了業務的交易性質，交易備件，上個季度在客戶數量有限的情況下有點暫時的動態。

And this is us just getting back to a more normalized environment.

這是我們剛剛回到一個更加規範化的環境。

Clearly, customers are seeing the strength we're beginning to flash in foundry/logic.

顯然，客戶正在看到我們開始在代工/邏輯領域展現的實力。

I think we're seeing some early signs around the setup for memory as we go forward led by NAND than DRAM.

我認為隨著我們以 NAND 而非 DRAM 為主導，我們在內存設置方面看到了一些早期跡象。

And it's hard to really parse against that contextual backdrop exactly what's in customers' minds when they drive the transactional part of the business.

而且，當客戶推動業務的交易部分時，很難在這種背景背景下準確地分析客戶的想法。

I would just say, in general, it feels like a good setup with some positive momentum, and we feel good about that setup as we look into 2020.

我只想說，總的來說，這感覺像是一個很好的設置，有一些積極的勢頭，我們對 2020 年的設置感覺很好。

Harlan, I think the big needle mover is really memory, memory utilization.

Harlan，我認為最重要的是內存，內存利用率。

Certainly, the agreements, as Dan said, were up to maybe close to 60% of spares and service with agreements where we have higher revenue per tool.

當然，正如 Dan 所說，這些協議可能接近 60% 的備件和服務，而我們每台工具的收入更高的協議。

But the big incremental driver will be when memory comes back and utilization goes up in those memory factories.

但最大的增量驅動因素將是當內存恢復並且這些內存工廠的利用率上升時。

And certainly, as Dan said earlier, we expect that to happen in NAND first.

當然，正如 Dan 之前所說，我們希望這首先發生在 NAND 中。

And we, as he said earlier, it's a question of when, not if.

而我們，正如他之前所說，這是一個何時，而不是是否的問題。

So it's definitely going to happen in some time here, and we hope the NAND starts in 2020.

所以它肯定會在一段時間內發生，我們希望 NAND 在 2020 年開始。

And when we think about cost per bit declines in memory, both DRAM and NAND, the rate of those declines is decelerating pretty dramatically.

當我們考慮到內存（DRAM 和 NAND）的每比特成本下降時，這些下降的速度正在顯著減速。

So productivity by your customers is a big focus.

因此，客戶的生產力是一個重點。

More batch-based systems is a focus and one of the drivers for the Kokusai acquisition.

更多基於批處理的系統是收購 Kokusai 的重點和驅動力之一。

But what else is the Applied team doing to help customers improve productivity?

但是，Applied 團隊還在做些什麼來幫助客戶提高生產力呢？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的問題。

So I talked earlier about co-optimizing hardmask materials with etch to improve etch selectivity.

因此，我之前談到了與蝕刻共同優化硬掩模材料以提高蝕刻選擇性。

Now that's certainly for the high aspect ratio patterning incredibly important.

現在，這對於高縱橫比圖案來說無疑是非常重要的。

We have other cases where we're working with customers on patterning, where we're reducing -- I mentioned that earlier, we're reducing the cost of multiple patterning.

我們還有其他案例，我們正在與客戶合作進行圖案化，我們正在減少 - 我之前提到過，我們正在降低多重圖案化的成本。

In some cases, we're able to reduce the cost 30% and also enable better pattern placement.

在某些情況下，我們能夠將成本降低 30% 並實現更好的圖案放置。

So for memory, especially in NAND, those are some of the areas we're driving.

因此，對於內存，尤其是在 NAND 中，這些是我們正在推動的一些領域。

Another area is in the performance with the periphery going to more logic-like structures, especially higher speed memory devices.

另一個領域是在性能方面，外設採用更多類似邏輯的結構，尤其是高速存儲設備。

That's an area that plays to our leadership products.

這是一個與我們的領導產品相關的領域。

And certainly, we see tremendous traction from customers in those areas.

當然，我們從這些領域的客戶那裡看到了巨大的吸引力。

I think longer term, it's about how do you optimize new structures, creating, shaping, modifying, analyzing new structures.

我認為從長遠來看，這是關於如何優化新結構、創建、塑造、修改和分析新結構。

We have a lot that we're doing today in co-optimization of those capabilities.

我們今天在共同優化這些功能方面有很多工作要做。

A tremendous amount in the pipeline where we have very strong customer pull.

我們擁有非常強大的客戶拉動能力的管道中的大量產品。

And operator and people on the call, I think that we're running a little short on time.

接線員和通話人員，我認為我們的時間有點短。

We know there's a lot of people in the queue.

我們知道排隊的人很多。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I've heard with a lot of interest the answer you've given on your outlook in logic and how you see things evolving.

我非常感興趣地聽到了您就您的邏輯觀點以及您如何看待事物發展給出的答案。

Is there a way you could give us some sense of how your exposure is going to change on 2 specific nodes?

有沒有辦法讓我們了解您的曝光在 2 個特定節點上將如何變化？

So the ones I have in mind are the TSMC nodes, when TSMC moves from 7-nanometer to 7-plus.

所以我想到的是台積電節點，當台積電從 7 納米轉移到 7 納米以上時。

So some kind of critical dimensions, but more EUV insertion.

所以某種臨界尺寸，但更多的 EUV 插入。

And at Intel, between the 10-nanometer node and the 7-nanometer node, same thing, a lot of additional EUV layers.

在英特爾，在 10 納米節點和 7 納米節點之間，同樣的事情，還有很多額外的 EUV 層。

I understand you guys remain very well exposed to this new EUV heavy nodes, but I imagine that when you move from multiple patterning to EUV, the type of business you get is different.

我知道你們仍然很好地接觸到這種新的 EUV 重節點，但我想當你從多重圖案轉移到 EUV 時，你得到的業務類型是不同的。

So could you describe that for us, please?

那麼，請您為我們描述一下，好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Pierre.

謝謝，皮埃爾。

So it's important to remember that when customers are scaling, I would say the first thing is that they're driving 5 different areas where shrinking is 1 of those 5 different areas.

所以重要的是要記住，當客戶擴大規模時，我想說的第一件事是他們正在駕駛 5 個不同的區域，而收縮是這 5 個不同區域中的一個。

We talked about new architectures, new structures, new materials, new ways to connect chips together and the shrink.

我們討論了新架構、新結構、新材料、將芯片連接在一起的新方法以及縮小。

So again, we have tremendously unique technologies enabling that new playbook.

再說一次，我們擁有非常獨特的技術來支持新的劇本。

And I'm with one of the R&D leaders for one of our customers next week.

下週我將與一位研發負責人一起為我們的一位客戶服務。

I'm with another one the following week.

下週我和另一個人在一起。

Again, constantly, we're getting tremendous pull in driving power and performance because it's very, very, very difficult.

同樣，我們不斷地在驅動力和性能方面獲得巨大的吸引力，因為它非常、非常、非常困難。

So the first thing I would say is that, we have unique capabilities in enabling the new playbook.

所以我要說的第一件事是，我們在啟用新劇本方面擁有獨特的能力。

That's where we're investing.

這就是我們投資的地方。

That's where we have tremendous engagements with customers.

這就是我們與客戶進行大量互動的地方。

So then if you think about shrinking, I talked earlier on the call about where we're working with customers on multiple patterning.

因此，如果您考慮縮小，我早些時候在電話會議上談到了我們與客戶合作進行多重圖案化的地方。

And there are cases where we're able to reduce the number of steps by 30% and increase pattern placement.

在某些情況下，我們能夠將步驟數減少 30% 並增加圖案放置。

So that's another area we're doing co-optimization.

所以這是我們正在進行協同優化的另一個領域。

And it's also important to remember that as you're scaling and EUV layers come in, some other steps also need to shrink and multi-patterning is still growing.

同樣重要的是要記住，當您進行縮放和 EUV 層進入時，其他一些步驟也需要縮小，並且多重圖案仍在增長。

So with Applied, the EUV steps that are coming in to replace other steps are not our steps.

因此，對於 Applied 來說，取代其他步驟的 EUV 步驟並不是我們的步驟。

So Applied has opportunities and we are winning when EUV is being adopted in some of those replacement steps.

所以 Applied 有機會，當 EUV 在其中一些替代步驟中被採用時，我們正在獲勝。

There's this focus on multi-patterning where we're focused on reducing steps, reducing costs.

我們關注的是多模式，我們專注於減少步驟，降低成本。

I think another, Pierre, another really good example is in 2019 in foundry/logic we have very strong momentum with our Sym3 etcher.

我認為另一個，皮埃爾，另一個非常好的例子是在 2019 年，在鑄造/邏輯方面，我們的 Sym3 蝕刻機勢頭非常強勁。

And this is where you're seeing the highest EUV adoption.

這就是您看到 EUV 採用率最高的地方。

We're seeing very high growth in 2019 with wins across many customers.

我們在 2019 年看到了非常高的增長，贏得了許多客戶。

And we definitely see significant growth much faster than the market with our Sym3 etch business in leading foundry customers.

我們的 Sym3 蝕刻業務在領先的代工客戶中的顯著增長速度肯定比市場快得多。

And we anticipate based on the wins that we have, we're going to continue to grow at 5 and 3 as these new technologies are being adopted.

我們預計，根據我們所取得的勝利，隨著這些新技術的採用，我們將繼續以 5 和 3 的速度增長。

Just another data point with Sym3.

只是 Sym3 的另一個數據點。

That's the fastest-ramping product in the history of Applied.

這是 Applied 歷史上發展最快的產品。

We just shipped our 4,000th chamber and many of them going into foundry and logic.

我們剛剛運送了第 4,000 個腔室，其中許多進入了鑄造和邏輯。

So that's kind of a top-level view.

所以這是一種頂級視圖。

I would say, again, the key thing for all of these customers is how do they drive the technology road map for power and performance.

我想說，對於所有這些客戶來說，關鍵是他們如何推動功率和性能的技術路線圖。

2D scaling is slowing down.

2D 縮放正在放緩。

They need new ways to drive the road map, and that's really the sweet spot for Applied Materials.

他們需要新的方法來推動路線圖，而這確實是應用材料公司的最佳選擇。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

Gary, I think you just provided a little bit of color already to the question I have.

加里，我想你已經為我的問題提供了一點色彩。

But with capital intensity trends for foundry and logic continuing to increase as we go from 7 to 5 and eventually 3. Aside from, say, like the etch Sym3 and products like that, where else are you seeing, I guess, increasing capital intensity trends on the foundry/logic end that helps both your leadership tools or your leadership businesses as well as some of the growth opportunities, aside from etch?

但是隨著代工和邏輯的資本密集度趨勢隨著我們從 7 到 5 並最終達到 3 持續增加。除了像 etch Sym3 和類似的產品之外，我猜你還在哪裡看到資本密集度趨勢的增加在代工/邏輯端，這有助於您的領導工具或領導業務以及一些增長機會，除了蝕刻？

Are you seeing it in deposition?

你在證詞中看到了嗎？

Are you seeing it in the process control area?

你在過程控制區看到了嗎？

What other areas are you seeing that growth in capital intensity trends for your products?

您還看到哪些其他領域的產品資本密集度趨勢出現增長？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Patrick.

謝謝你的問題，帕特里克。

So if we look at 2019, we talked about a record foundry/logic performance.

因此，如果我們回顧 2019 年，我們談到了創紀錄的代工/邏輯性能。

And we have a very strong incumbent leadership position as you talked about in foundry/logic.

正如您在代工/邏輯領域所說，我們擁有非常強大的現任領導職位。

A much larger business and more diverse business than our process tool appears.

出現了比我們的流程工具更大、更多樣化的業務。

And that's driving our outperformance in 2019.

這推動了我們在 2019 年的出色表現。

So if we look at foundry/logic, in this calendar year, we'll have the highest foundry/logic revenue ever, highest epi revenue ever and highest metals revenue ever.

因此，如果我們看一下代工/邏輯，在這個日曆年，我們將擁有有史以來最高的代工/邏輯收入、有史以來最高的外延收入和有史以來最高的金屬收入。

So those are areas that are part of our leadership products.

因此，這些領域是我們領先產品的一部分。

We're working with customers on new materials like tungsten deposition, shaping structures with selective removal, where we're gaining key wins.

我們正在與客戶合作開發新材料，例如鎢沉積、通過選擇性去除來塑造結構，我們在這些方面取得了重大勝利。

That's enabling performance gains for our customers and growth for Applied.

這為我們的客戶帶來了性能提升，並為 Applied 帶來了增長。

So those are some of the areas where we're seeing growth.

所以這些是我們看到增長的一些領域。

In terms of 2019, we're also seeing strong growth besides etch in CVD, thermal.

就 2019 年而言，除了 CVD 蝕刻、熱蝕刻之外，我們還看到了強勁的增長。

And you talked about inspection, that's an area where we just introduced a new product.

你談到了檢查，這是我們剛剛推出新產品的領域。

We're seeing very strong adoption.

我們看到非常強大的採用率。

And that will give us momentum to grow quickly in that business in 2020.

這將使我們有動力在 2020 年在該業務中快速增長。

So anyway, that's a little bit of color around some of the areas that we're driving.

所以無論如何，這在我們正在駕駛的一些區域周圍有點顏色。

But it really does get back to driving power and performance, area and cost for customers and really more and more, not just with unit processes, but also with these integrated solutions is a sweet spot for Applied and gives us tremendous momentum going forward.

但它確實回到了驅動力和性能、面積和客戶成本上，而且真的越來越多，不僅僅是單元流程，而且這些集成解決方案對應用材料公司來說是一個甜蜜點，並為我們提供了巨大的前進動力。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

Dan, I guess I had a question on gross margin guidance.

丹，我想我對毛利率指導有疑問。

There's hardly any incremental drop-through year-over-year, yet you're doing like $350 million more in revenue, but gross margin is the same.

同比幾乎沒有任何增量下降，但你的收入增加了 3.5 億美元，但毛利率是一樣的。

I guess it's a little surprising because SSG, which is the highest-margin segment, is up a lot year-over-year.

我想這有點令人驚訝，因為作為利潤率最高的細分市場，SSG 同比增長了很多。

So are SSG margins lower in January because it seems like the margins at a corporate level should be 150 basis points higher or something like that.

1 月份的 SSG 利潤率也較低，因為公司層面的利潤率似乎應該高出 150 個基點或類似的東西。

So can you just walk me through that?

那你能幫我看看嗎？

Sure, Tim.

當然，蒂姆。

We won't guide gross margins by segment.

我們不會按細分市場指導毛利率。

So let me share with you a little bit of what we do see in gross margin.

因此，讓我與您分享一些我們在毛利率方面看到的情況。

As you know, gross margin any given quarter is always going to be a function of a few things, revenue level, segment mix, product mix, customer mix, factory activity, all are going to vary from quarter-to-quarter and go into the gross margin.

如您所知，任何給定季度的毛利率總是取決於一些因素，收入水平、細分市場組合、產品組合、客戶組合、工廠活動，所有這些都會因季度而異，並進入毛利率。

We think our performance compares favorably with our peers over this cycle.

我們認為，在這個週期內，我們的表現優於同行。

Our peak-to-trough gross margin over this cycle was down about 210 basis points.

我們在這個週期中從峰到谷的毛利率下降了約 210 個基點。

Our next closest competitors in the process tool space, one was down 300, another one was down 310.

我們在工藝工具領域的下一個最接近的競爭對手，一個下降了 300，另一個下降了 310。

And as we're profiling into the back part of the calendar year on a relative basis, I think that gross margin performance on a quarter-over-quart0er basis also looks pretty good.

當我們在相對基礎上分析日曆年的後半部分時，我認為按季度計算的毛利率表現看起來也相當不錯。

So we like how we're executing.

所以我們喜歡我們的執行方式。

Are we ever satisfied with our gross margins?

我們對毛利率是否滿意？

No.

不。

Are we maniacally focused on driving improvements and improving the cost structure?

我們是否瘋狂地專注於推動改進和改善成本結構？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

We're going to keep at it.

我們會堅持下去。

We're going to continue to work hard.

我們將繼續努力。

And I think you're seeing the breadth and depth of our portfolio in a broad sense play out in the gross margin resiliency over the course of the cycle.

而且我認為您會看到我們投資組合的廣度和深度在整個週期中體現在毛利率彈性上。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

And just thinking conceptually about next year, if foundry/logic sustains and memory is really incremental to the model, and I think display, you're starting at a low level, but just the run rate implies that you will grow through the year.

只是從概念上考慮明年，如果代工廠/邏輯維持並且內存確實對模型增加，我認為顯示，你從一個低水平開始，但運行速度意味著你將在這一年中成長。

Does that say your January quarter is the low point of the year in terms of sales and gross margins?

這是否說明您的 1 月季度是今年銷售額和毛利率的低點？

I'm sorry, Vivek, could you please repeat it?

對不起，Vivek，你能重複一遍嗎？

It cut out on this end.

它在這一端被切斷了。

I just want to make sure I got the full question.

我只是想確保我得到了完整的問題。

Sorry.

對不起。

Yes, of course, Dan.

是的，當然，丹。

So if memory spending is incremental to the model from here on, and you said foundry and logic should sustain and even on the display side, I think you're starting at a low point in January.

因此，如果內存支出從現在開始對模型增加，並且您說代工和邏輯應該維持甚至在顯示方面，我認為您從一月份的低點開始。

Does it say that your January quarter outlook is the low point of the year in terms of sales and gross margins, that things could actually conceptually get better in the year as memory recovers?

是不是說你的 1 月季度展望是今年銷售額和毛利率的低點，隨著記憶的恢復，今年的情況實際上可能會變得更好？

So I guess the best way for me to describe it because I think what we're going to do is we're going to guide one quarter at a time.

所以我想對我來說最好的描述方式是因為我認為我們要做的是一次指導一個季度。

And the environment is clearly better today than it was a quarter ago or 6 months ago.

今天的環境顯然比一個季度前或 6 個月前要好。

And what I would say, just at the very highest level, the company is performing well.

我想說的是，就最高水平而言，該公司表現良好。

We've got a good backlog entering the year.

進入這一年，我們有大量的積壓工作。

You pointed out strength in foundry/logic services.

您指出了代工/邏輯服務的優勢。

Swing factor in the year, I said it before, it's really the essence of the issue.

當年的搖擺因素，我之前說過，這才是問題的本質。

The swing factor for the year is going to be what happens in the memory market.

今年的波動因素將是內存市場發生的事情。

So we're going to stay close to customers.

因此，我們將與客戶保持密切聯繫。

We're going to be ready to respond when the NAND market starts to hit followed by DRAM.

當 NAND 市場開始受到衝擊，緊隨其後的是 DRAM，我們將做好應對的準備。

And we'll take it one quarter at a time.

我們將一次接受四分之一。

So I don't think we want to start giving multiple quarter guidance and shaping the full year given some of the uncertainty we see from a timing standpoint on when things like memory are going to start to flash.

因此，我認為我們不想開始提供多個季度的指導並塑造全年，因為我們從時間的角度看到了一些不確定性，比如內存之類的東西何時開始閃爍。

Our last question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Quinn Bolton 與 Needham & Company 的對話。

I guess I just wanted to follow up on John and Vivek's questions there.

我想我只是想在那裡跟進 John 和 Vivek 的問題。

It seems almost illogical for us to assume that the foundry strength that you're seeing in the January quarter sustains at that quarterly level through each quarter of fiscal '20 because that would get the business up probably well into the teens, if not 20% year-on-year.

我們假設您在 1 月季度看到的代工實力在 20 財年的每個季度都維持在該季度水平似乎幾乎是不合邏輯的，因為這可能會使業務增長到十幾歲，如果不是 20%比去年同期。

And so again, I guess, I'm not asking you to necessarily guide us quarter-to-quarter, but isn't it logical to assume that you're probably not going to sustain that peak quarterly revenue at foundry in every quarter of 2020?

再說一次，我想，我並不是要求您一定要按季度指導我們，但是假設您可能不會在每個季度都維持鑄造廠的季度收入峰值是否合乎邏輯？ 2020 年？

Yes.

是的。

No question, Quinn.

毫無疑問，奎因。

And my sustainability into next year is really meant to be that it's not going to be a one quarter phenomenon.

我對明年的可持續性真的意味著它不會成為四分之一的現象。

We've got a nice backlog.

我們有一個很好的積壓。

Q4 was a really nice quarter for us in foundry/logic.

第四季度對我們在代工/邏輯方面來說是一個非常好的季度。

Q1 will be a record quarter.

第一季度將是創紀錄的季度。

And I think it would be probably not the right place to set expectation to think every quarter is going to be at a record foundry/logic level.

而且我認為這可能不是設定期望以認為每個季度都將處於創紀錄的代工/邏輯水平的正確位置。

And so while the activity level can be nice, it doesn't always have to be a record.

因此，雖然活動水平可以很好，但它並不總是必須是記錄。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Well, thank you, Quinn.

好吧，謝謝你，奎因。

And I think we're almost at the end of our hour.

我想我們快要結束了。

Dan, anything you would like to say in closing?

丹，最後你有什麼想說的嗎？

Sure, Mike.

當然，邁克。

Just a couple of quick thoughts.

只是幾個快速的想法。

First, like I said at the beginning, I'm pleased with the way we ended the fiscal year and I especially like the setup for Applied in 2020 given the record year-end backlog and the momentum that we see in key parts of the business.

首先，就像我在開頭所說的那樣，我對我們結束本財年的方式感到滿意，鑑於年終積壓的創紀錄以及我們在業務關鍵部分看到的勢頭，我特別喜歡 Applied 在 2020 年的設置.

Second, we look forward to staying close to investors.

其次，我們期待與投資者保持密切聯繫。

December 3, Gary and I are going to be at the Crédit Suisse Conference in Scottsdale.

12 月 3 日，我和 Gary 將參加在斯科茨代爾舉行的瑞士信貸會議。

Next week after that, I'll be at the UBS Conference in New York.

在那之後的下週，我將參加在紐約舉行的瑞銀會議。

In the meantime, we hope you all have a happy and safe Thanksgiving with your families.

與此同時，我們希望你們和家人度過一個快樂安全的感恩節。

Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

邁克，讓我們繼續並結束通話。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today.

我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。

A replay of our call is going to be available on our website by 5 p.m.

下午 5 點之前將在我們的網站上重播我們的通話。

Pacific Time, and we would like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

太平洋時間，我們要感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。