應用材料 (AMAT) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把會議交給公司副總裁邁克爾·沙利文先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Applied's Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2019 Earnings Call, which is being recorded. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝各位參加應用材料公司 2019 財年第四季財報電話會議，本次會議正在錄音。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson，以及我們的財務長 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的資訊包含在 Applied 向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP財務指標。與 GAAP 指標的調節表可在今天的盈利新聞稿和我們的調節表幻燈片中找到，這些幻燈片可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的 IR 頁面上找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

I'm pleased to report our results for the quarter were at the top end of guidance driven by a healthy uptick in demand for semiconductor equipment combined with strong execution across the company. This rounds out a solid year of performance in a challenging environment as we navigated down cycles in both memory and display. These results would not be possible without the hard work and dedication of Applied Materials employees around the world. I would like to thank them for the passion they bring to work every day and congratulate them on their accomplishments this year.

我很高興地報告，由於半導體設備需求的健康成長以及公司各部門的強勁執行力，我們本季的業績達到了預期上限。在記憶體和顯示器都經歷了週期性下行的情況下，我們在充滿挑戰的環境中取得了穩健的業績，這為我們過去一年的出色表現畫上了圓滿的句號。如果沒有應用材料公司全球員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，這些成果是不可能的。我要感謝他們每天對工作的熱情，並祝賀他們今年的成就。

As this is our year-end call, I'll begin with a brief recap of the past 12 months before providing our perspective on the current market environment. I'll then talk about the broader context for the industry, including the major growth drivers and inflections that will shape our markets over the next several years. I'll conclude by summarizing the key elements of our strategy and outlining the investments we're making to put Applied in the best position for the tremendous opportunities ahead.

由於這是我們的年終電話會議，我將首先簡要回顧過去 12 個月的情況，然後再闡述我們對當前市場環境的看法。接下來，我將談談該行業的更廣泛背景，包括未來幾年將塑造我們市場的主要成長驅動因素和轉折點。最後，我將總結我們策略的關鍵要素，並概述我們正在進行的投資，以使應用材料公司在迎接未來巨大機會方面處於最佳位置。

Applied's fiscal 2019 was shaped by the first significant pullback in customer investments since 2013. However, this provides a good illustration of how the semiconductor industry is evolving. As I have highlighted before, the market for semi equipment and services is now significantly larger and less volatile than it was in the past.

Applied 公司 2019 財年的業績受到了自 2013 年以來客戶投資首次大幅下滑的影響。然而，這很好地說明了半導體產業的發展演變。正如我之前強調的那樣，半導體設備和服務市場現在比過去規模大得多，波動性也小得多。

If the second calendar quarter of 2019 proves to be the low point of this spending cycle, then the downturn lasted 4 quarters and our quarterly revenue at the trough was approximately 20% lower than at the peak. In contrast, during the industry cycles that took place between 2000 and 2013, our average peak-to-trough revenue drop was more than twice that magnitude.

如果 2019 年第二季度被證明是本輪消費週期的低谷，那麼經濟低迷期持續了 4 個季度，而我們在低谷時的季度收入比高峰時低了約 20%。相較之下，在 2000 年至 2013 年的產業週期中，我們的平均高峰到谷底的收入下降幅度是這個幅度的兩倍以上。

This cycle was different, in large part, due to the growth and diversification of demand drivers spanning consumer and enterprise end markets. It's also important to note that the fundamental dynamics of the memory market are healthier through this cycle. The memory makers are highly focused, making disciplined investments in capacity and continuing to drive their technology road maps forward. As well as a more robust core market, Applied is a more resilient company that's balanced across different areas of the market and can perform well in a variety of conditions. Thanks to the breadth of our portfolio, our semi equipment business is outperforming both the wafer fab equipment market and our direct peers this year.

這一週期與以往不同，很大程度上是由於消費者和企業終端市場的需求驅動因素的成長和多元化所致。值得注意的是，記憶體市場的基本動態在本輪週期中更加健康。記憶體製造商高度專注，對產能進行嚴謹的投資，並持續推進其技術路線圖。除了擁有更強大的核心市場外，Applied 還是一家更具韌性的公司，在不同的市場領域保持平衡，能夠在各種條件下表現出色。由於我們產品組合的廣泛性，今年我們的半導體設備業務表現優於晶圓製造設備市場和我們的直接同業。

Fiscal 2019 was also a record year for Applied Global Services. In fact, we're growing our services revenue significantly faster than the underlying equipment businesses. Over the past 12 months, we've grown our installed base of semi and display equipment by about 2,000 systems to almost 43,000. We have also increased the number of installed base tools covered by long-term service agreement, which generate subscription-style revenues by around 30% since 2017. Overall, 45% of our FY '19 revenues came from sources other than new 300-millimeter equipment sales. This is up from 41% just 2 years ago.

2019財年也是Applied Global Services創紀錄的一年。事實上，我們的服務收入成長速度遠超過基礎設備業務。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們的半自動和顯示設備的安裝量增加了約 2,000 套系統，達到近 43,000 套。自 2017 年以來，我們已將長期服務協議涵蓋的已安裝基礎工具的數量增加了約 30%，這些工具產生的訂閱式收入也增加了約 30%。整體而言，我們 2019 財年營收的 45% 來自 300 毫米新設備銷售以外的來源。這一比例比兩年前的 41% 有所上升。

In terms of our near-term outlook, while I don't want to speculate about the exact shape or timing of the market recovery, I can characterize what we currently see with 3 observations. First, strong investment by foundry/logic customers driven by demand in key geographies, an acceleration of the 5G road map and commitment to advance the leading edge. Second, early signs of a recovery in NAND investments. And third, positive progression of the ongoing inventory correction in DRAM.

就近期前景而言，雖然我不想猜測市場復甦的具體形態或時間，但我可以用以下三點觀察來概括我們目前所看到的。首先，代工廠/邏輯晶片客戶在關鍵地區的需求推動下進行了大力投資，5G路線圖加速推進，並致力於推動領先技術的發展。其次，NAND 投資出現復甦的早期跡象。第三，DRAM庫存調整持續取得正面進展。

Because of the strength seen in recent months, we're revising our estimates for 2019 wafer fab equipment upwards. We now believe 2019 spending levels could be similar to 2017. Based on the visibility we have today, we're optimistic about 2020, with an expectation of sustained strength in foundry/logic and a step-up in memory investments during the year with NAND recovering ahead of DRAM.

由於近幾個月來的強勁勢頭，我們將上調 2019 年晶圓製造設備的預期。我們現在認為 2019 年的支出水準可能與 2017 年類似。根據我們目前所掌握的信息，我們對 2020 年持樂觀態度，預計晶圓代工/邏輯領域將保持強勁勢頭，並且在這一年中，隨著 NAND 閃存的複蘇速度超過 DRAM，存儲器投資將會增加。

In display, as anticipated, FY '19 revenues were down 1/3 relative to FY '18. At this point, we expect FY '20 revenues to be at similar levels as we bounce along the bottom of this market cycle. In this environment, our display business remains profitable, even as we fund R&D for next-generation products. We still believe the display market provides good long-term growth opportunities for Applied as the industry becomes increasingly technology intensive. We remain focused on working closely with customers to drive their technology road maps forward and ensuring we have the right portfolio of products in place to outperform the market when investment levels pick up.

數據顯示，正如預期的那樣，2019 財年的收入比 2018 財年下降了三分之一。目前，我們預計 2020 財年的收入將與此類似水平，因為我們正處於本輪市場週期的底部。在這種環境下，即使我們為下一代產品的研發提供資金，我們的顯示器業務仍然保持獲利。我們仍然相信，隨著顯示器產業技術密集度的不斷提高，顯示器市場將為應用材料帶來良好的長期成長機會。我們將繼續專注於與客戶緊密合作，推動他們的技術路線圖向前發展，並確保我們擁有合適的產品組合，以便在投資水平回升時超越市場表現。

Looking beyond the cycle, at the broader context for the electronics industry, it's important to recognize that we are in a period of transition as major new growth drivers emerge in the form of IoT, big data and artificial intelligence. Over the next decade, we expect hundreds of billions of edge devices to be deployed, an explosion of data generation and new approaches to computing to sustainably process and create value from all the data that's available. AI and big data have the potential to transform every area of the economy and our lives. These inflections will also have a profound impact on the semiconductor industry. As we move from the age of general-purpose computing to demand-specific approaches, new system architectures and new types of semiconductor devices are needed in the data center and at the edge.

跳脫週期性思維，從電子產業的更廣泛背景來看，我們必須認識到，我們正處於轉型期，物聯網、大數據和人工智慧等主要的新成長動力正在湧現。未來十年，我們預計將部署數千億個邊緣設備，資料產生量將爆炸性成長，並出現新的運算方法，以可持續處理所有可用資料並從中創造價值。人工智慧和大數據有可能改變經濟的各個領域以及我們的生活。這些轉折點也將對半導體產業產生深遠影響。隨著我們從通用運算時代邁向特定需求方法，資料中心和邊緣運算需要新的系統架構和新型半導體元件。

A major factor in the adoption rate of AI will be how quickly we can realize improvements in the power, performance, area and cost or PPAC of the foundational semiconductor technologies. However, at a time when PPAC improvements are on the critical path, classic Moore's Law scaling is slowing. To drive the PPAC road map in the future, a new playbook for semiconductor design and manufacturing is needed. This playbook has 5 main elements, new architectures, new devices and 3D structures, new materials, new ways to shrink feature geometries and new ways to connect chips together. Then to accelerate implementation of this new playbook, I strongly believe the ecosystem needs to work together differently by breaking down traditional industry silos.

人工智慧普及速度的一個主要因素，是我們能夠多快在基礎半導體技術的功耗、效能、面積和成本（PPAC）方面取得改進。然而，在 PPAC 改進處於關鍵階段之際，經典的摩爾定律擴展速度卻在放緩。為了推動 PPAC 的未來發展路線圖，需要一套新的半導體設計和製造方案。該方案包含 5 個主要要素：新架構、新設備和 3D 結構、新材料、縮小特徵幾何形狀的新方法以及將晶片連接在一起的新方法。為了加速這項新策略的實施，我堅信生態系統需要打破傳統的產業壁壘，以不同的方式協同工作。

At Applied, we've aligned our strategy and investments around this vision of the future. While we are carefully managing all non-R&D spending, we're investing more than ever in new capabilities and products to accelerate the new playbook. We recently announced the official opening of our META Center in New York. This state-of-the-art facility enables us to work with customers and partners in new ways, accelerating the transfer of novel technologies from lab to fab.

在應用材料公司，我們已將策略和投資與這個未來願景相契合。在謹慎管理所有非研發支出的同時，我們比以往任何時候都更重視對新能力和產品的投資，以加速新策略的實施。我們最近宣布了位於紐約的 META 中心正式開幕。這個最先進的設施使我們能夠以新的方式與客戶和合作夥伴合作，加速將新技術從實驗室轉移到工廠。

I'm equally excited about how our future product pipeline is shaping up. In addition to our traditional unit process equipment, which spans deposition, removal, modification and analysis of materials, we're developing entirely new categories of products that we call Integrated Materials Solutions. The applications for these IMS products include: co-optimization of deposition, removal and analysis, all the way to creating, shaping, modifying and analyzing new structures and devices. We'll share more details as we bring new products to market in 2020 and 2021. For the time being, let me highlight a few examples of how we are defending our leadership positions, winning new applications and expanding our available market in the near term.

我對我們未來的產品線發展前景同樣感到興奮。除了我們傳統的單元製程設備（涵蓋材料的沉積、去除、改質和分析）之外，我們還在開發全新的產品類別，我們稱之為整合材料解決方案。這些 IMS 產品的應用包括：沉積、去除和分析的協同優化，直至創建、塑造、修改和分析新的結構和設備。我們將在 2020 年和 2021 年推出新產品時分享更多細節。目前，讓我重點介紹幾個例子，說明我們如何在短期內捍衛我們的領導地位、贏得新的應用程式以及擴大我們的可用市場。

In DRAM, customers are introducing advanced transistors and interconnects to improve performance and low power. These technologies where Applied has long held leadership were originally developed for logic applications and are now migrating to memory. Growing demand for specialty nodes that serve the IoT, communications, automotive, power and image sensor markets is also driving robust investments in capacity and new technology. PPAC improvements are equally important for these applications, and we're finding new ways to migrate our leading-edge technologies into these specialty markets.

在DRAM領域，客戶正在引入先進的電晶體和互連技術，以提高效能並降低功耗。應用材料公司長期以來一直處於領先地位的這些技術最初是為邏輯應用而開發的，現在正在遷移到記憶體領域。物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和影像感測器市場對專用節點的需求不斷增長，也推動了產能和新技術的強勁投資。對於這些應用而言，PPAC 的改進同樣重要，我們正在尋找新的方法，將我們的領先技術引入這些專業市場。

Advanced patterning is a critical enabler for shrinking feature geometries which translates to a large, growing opportunity in foundry/logic and DRAM. The patterning road map is increasingly enabled by new materials as well as co-optimization of materials deposition and removal. As a result, we are expanding our positions in memory and winning new applications at foundry/logic customers.

先進的圖案化技術是縮小特徵幾何尺寸的關鍵推動因素，這為晶圓代工/邏輯和DRAM帶來了巨大的、不斷增長的機會。新材料的出現以及材料沉積和去除的協同優化，使得圖案化路線圖的實現越來越容易。因此，我們在記憶體領域的地位不斷擴大，並在代工廠/邏輯客戶中贏得了新的應用。

And in markets where we have plenty of room to grow, we're also building momentum. In optical wafer inspection, we're winning new positions at foundry/logic customers. And in etch, we have recently won multiple critical applications in NAND as well as in foundry/logic, where we delivered record etch revenues for the year.

在一些還有很大成長空間的市場，我們也正在儲蓄力量。在光學晶圓檢測領域，我們正在贏得代工廠/邏輯元件客戶的新訂單。在蝕刻領域，我們最近在 NAND 和代工/邏輯領域贏得了多個關鍵應用，並實現了今年創紀錄的蝕刻收入。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, let me quickly summarize. First, we're seeing a strong finish to 2019 driven by a healthy uptick in foundry/logic spending. Although it's still too early to call the shape and timing of the recovery in memory, we're encouraged by the signs we're seeing.

在把電話交給丹之前，讓我快速總結一下。首先，我們看到 2019 年迎來強勁的收官，這主要得益於晶圓代工/邏輯晶片支出的健康成長。雖然現在判斷記憶力恢復的具體情況和時間還為時過早，但我們對目前看到的跡象感到鼓舞。

Second, we have a strong, positive point of view about the opportunities the AI, big data era will create for the industry and Applied. While we're tightly controlling non-R&D-related spending, we are investing more than ever in new products and capabilities that put us in winning positions for the future.

其次，我們對人工智慧、大數據時代將為產業和應用科技帶來的機會抱持強烈而正面的看法。雖然我們嚴格控制非研發相關支出，但我們比以往任何時候都更重視對新產品和新能力的投資，這使我們在未來處於有利地位。

Third, the technical collaboration between Applied and our customers has never been stronger. And we're working with a broader set of customers and partners to accelerate the time to market for new, game-changing technologies.

第三，Applied 與客戶之間的技術合作從未如此緊密。我們正在與更廣泛的客戶和合作夥伴攜手合作，以加速顛覆性新技術的上市速度。

Now I'll turn the call over to Dan.

現在我把電話交給丹。

Thanks, Gary.

謝謝你，加里。

Applied delivered another solid quarter in Q4, with revenue, margins and earnings in the upper end of our guidance range. I like the way we ended our fiscal year, and I particularly like the way we're set up for the year ahead. On today's call, I'll summarize our fiscal 2019, give you my sense of the business entering fiscal 2020 and share our outlook for Q1.

應用材料公司第四季業績表現穩健，營收、利潤率和獲利均達到我們預期範圍的上限。我很喜歡我們結束本財年的方式，尤其喜歡我們為來年所做的準備。在今天的電話會議上，我將總結我們 2019 財年的情況，談談我對 2020 財年業務發展的看法，並分享我們對第一季的展望。

In 2019, our end markets were softer across semi, display and the transactional portion of our services business. Despite that, we delivered revenue of $14.6 billion, and our quarterly revenue and earnings were stable, which demonstrates the resilience of our broad portfolio, even in a memory correction year. In fact, we earned significantly more in every quarter in fiscal 2019 than we did in all of fiscal 2013, which is the most recent year that included a significant equipment correction.

2019 年，我們在半導體、顯示器和我們服務業務的交易部分等終端市場表現疲軟。儘管如此，我們仍實現了 146 億美元的收入，季度收入和盈利保持穩定，這表明即使在記憶力修正的一年裡，我們廣泛的產品組合也具有韌性。事實上，我們在 2019 財年的每個季度都比 2013 財年全年賺得多，而 2013 財年是最近一個進行了重大設備調整的年份。

I also like our relative performance. In calendar 2019, we expect to significantly outperform our core market and our most direct peers. Specifically, while the equipment market will be down by mid-teen percentage, we expect semi equipment plus AGS to be down in the mid-single digits year-over-year.

我也很滿意我們相對的表現。預計在 2019 年，我們的業績將顯著優於核心市場和最直接的競爭對手。具體來說，雖然設備市場將下降 15% 左右，但我們預計半自動設備加上 AGS 的年降幅將達到個位數中段。

Looking ahead to 2020 and beyond, we have high confidence in the future growth of our markets and the unique opportunities Applied has to enable our customers' road maps. As a result, we invested a record amount in R&D this year while reducing our spending in SG&A. We delivered over $3 in non-GAAP earnings per share and generated nearly $3.25 billion of cash from operations. Our capital return strategy is to fully fund our profitable growth opportunities, maintain a strong balance sheet and deliver attractive cash returns to our shareholders through dividends and dividend growth, along with opportunistic share buyback.

展望 2020 年及以後，我們對市場的未來成長充滿信心，並對 Applied 能夠幫助客戶實現其發展藍圖的獨特機會充滿信心。因此，今年我們在研發方面投入了創紀錄的資金，同時減少了銷售、一般及行政費用。我們實現了超過 3 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益，並從營運中產生了近 32.5 億美元的現金。我們的資本回報策略是為獲利成長機會提供充足的資金，保持強勁的資產負債表，並透過股息和股息成長以及擇機回購，為股東帶來可觀的現金回報。

In 2019, we returned nearly $3.2 billion to shareholders, equivalent to 113% of free cash flow. We returned nearly $800 million in dividends, raised the dividend by 5% and took advantage of market volatility to repurchase 60 million shares of our stock at an average price of $39.86. As a reminder, we're working to complete the acquisition of Kokusai Electric. Upon close, we plan to direct most of our free cash flow towards repaying the term loan we're using to help fund the transaction.

2019 年，我們向股東返還了近 32 億美元，相當於自由現金流的 113%。我們返還了近 8 億美元的股息，將股息提高了 5%，並利用市場波動以平均每股 39.86 美元的價格回購了 6,000 萬股股票。再次提醒大家，我們正在努力完成對國際電氣的收購。交易完成後，我們計劃將大部分自由現金流用於償還我們用於資助此交易的定期貸款。

Now I'll share my thoughts on the business environment. On our previous earnings call, I talked about positive leading indicators of future growth. These included inventory reductions across memory, demand elasticity in NAND and strong foundry/logic demand, both in leading edge and specialty nodes. Today, I feel more positive.

現在我將分享我對商業環境的看法。在上一次財報電話會議上，我談到了未來成長的正面領先指標。這些因素包括記憶體庫存減少、NAND 需求彈性以及領先節點和特殊節點的強勁代工/邏輯需求。今天，我感覺心情更積極了。

In semi, we have strong pull for our leadership products, including record demand for epitaxy and metal deposition. We're also winning many new applications for our high-growth semi products in dielectric deposition, etch and inspection. We are significantly outgrowing our markets in foundry/logic with growing strength at the leading-edge nodes and key wins in automotive and advanced packaging. While it's always hard to call the timing and magnitude of a recovery in memory, we think it's a matter of when, not if, and we expect NAND to lead the way.

在半導體領域，我們的領先產品擁有強勁的需求，包括外延和金屬沉積產品創紀錄的需求。我們的高成長半導體產品在介電沉積、蝕刻和檢測領域也贏得了許多新的應用。我們在晶圓代工/邏輯電路領域的市場成長速度顯著超過預期，在尖端節點方面實力不斷增強，並在汽車和先進封裝領域取得了關鍵性勝利。雖然很難預測記憶體技術復甦的時機和規模，但我們認為這只是時間問題，而不是會不會復甦的問題，我們預計 NAND 將引領這一進程。

In AGS, revenue was stronger than we expected in Q4, and we still expect better-than-seasonal revenue in Q1. The subscription-like portion of AGS has momentum and will benefit from the thousands of new systems we added to our installed base in 2019. The transactional portion of the business should strengthen as memory utilization recovers in 2020.

AGS 第四季的營收比我們預期的要好，我們仍然預期第一季的營收將好於季節性水準。AGS 的訂閱模式發展勢頭良好，並將受益於我們在 2019 年新增的數千套系統。隨著 2020 年記憶體利用率的恢復，業務的交易部分應該會得到加強。

Rolling it all up, we're entering the new fiscal year with a backlog of $6.5 billion, which is our highest year-end backlog ever.

綜合所有因素，我們進入新財年時積壓訂單達 65 億美元，這是我們有史以來最高的年末積壓訂單。

Next, I'll provide our Q1 guidance. We expect company revenue of $4.10 billion, plus or minus $150 million, which would be up by about 9% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP earnings to be in the range of $0.87 to $0.95 per share. Within this outlook, we expect Semiconductor Systems revenue to be approximately $2.775 billion. Services revenue should be about $975 million. And Display revenue should be around $330 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 44.6% and non-GAAP OpEx should be around $800 million.

接下來，我將提供我們第一季的業績指引。我們預計公司營收為 41 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元，年增約 9%。我們預計非GAAP每股盈餘將在0.87美元至0.95美元之間。在此展望下，我們預期半導體系統業務營收約為 27.75 億美元。服務業收入預計約9.75億美元。展示廣告收入應該在 3.3 億美元左右。我們預計非GAAP毛利率約為44.6%，非GAAP營運支出約為8億美元。

In summary, I like the setup for Applied as we enter fiscal 2020. Our thesis surrounding IoT, big data and AI is being validated throughout the ecosystem, and our business outlook is transitioning from positive leading indicators to growing demand.

總而言之，我喜歡 Applied 在進入 2020 財年時的架構。我們關於物聯網、大數據和人工智慧的理論正在整個生態系統中得到驗證，我們的業務前景正在從積極的領先指標轉變為不斷增長的需求。

The investments we're making in the new playbook are strengthening our product portfolio and driving new design wins that will serve us exceptionally well as the new nodes ramp across foundry/logic, NAND and DRAM.

我們在新策略方面的投資正在加強我們的產品組合，並推動新的設計成功，這將在晶圓代工/邏輯、NAND 和 DRAM 等新節點加速生產的過程中為我們帶來極大的幫助。

Our opportunities in the specialty nodes are also expanding. Our Services business delivered a record year in 2019 and is on track for solid year-over-year growth in 2020.

我們在專業節點方面的機會也不斷擴大。我們的服務業務在 2019 年取得了創紀錄的業績，並預計在 2020 年實現穩健的同比增長。

Finally, we look forward to closing the acquisition of Kokusai Electric and welcoming its talented team to Applied Materials.

最後，我們期待完成對國際電氣的收購，並歡迎其優秀團隊加入應用材料公司。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

麥克，現在開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝你，丹。（操作員指示）操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I know you don't want to be too specific around the timing and magnitude of recovery in memory, but was hoping perhaps you could give just a little bit more color around your product positioning for when that does come as you look at leadership product as well as some of the new products that you have in the pipeline that you expect to come to market in 2020?

我知道您不想在記憶力恢復的時間和程度上透露太多細節，但我希望您能就產品定位做一些更詳細的說明，尤其是在您展望領先產品以及一些您計劃在 2020 年上市的新產品時？

Okay. Thanks, C.J. So what we're seeing in memory is customers continuing to drive technology road maps this year even as they're cutting the capacity additions to help with supply and demand. We really like the setup for Applied when memory spending recovers, which we think is in 2020 led by NAND.

好的。謝謝，C.J.。因此，我們在記憶體方面看到的情況是，即使客戶為了滿足供需而削減產能，他們今年仍在推動技術路線圖的發展。我們非常看好 Applied 在記憶體支出復甦時的佈局，我們認為 NAND 將在 2020 年引領這一復甦。

So if we look at the different types of devices. In DRAM, customers are moving to more advanced metal gate transistors in the periphery, and this is going to drive more demand like we saw in 28-nanometer foundry. So that's really positive for us in leadership areas like epi, PVD, implant, thermal. Also, we're gaining share in etch. We're also enabling new DRAM capacitor module capabilities and new patterning technologies that create large, new opportunities for Applied, where we're reducing the number of steps for multi-patterning and also improving pattern placement. So DRAM, especially with the more logic-like types of steps, really plays to our leadership positions. And so as those nodes go forward, we're in a good position in DRAM.

所以，如果我們看一下不同類型的設備。在 DRAM 領域，客戶正在轉向更先進的外圍金屬閘極電晶體，這將像我們在 28 奈米代工領域看到的那樣，推動更大的需求。所以這對我們在外延、PVD、植入、熱學等領導領域來說確實是個好消息。此外，我們在蝕刻領域也獲得了更多市場份額。我們也正在推動新的 DRAM 電容器模組功能和新的圖案化技術的發展，這為應用材料公司創造了巨大的新機遇，我們減少了多重圖案化的步驟，並改進了圖案放置。因此，DRAM，尤其是那些更像邏輯的步驟，確實有助於我們保持領先地位。因此，隨著這些節點的推進，我們在DRAM領域處於有利地位。

In 3D NAND, as customers are scaling beyond 96 layers, we're winning new applications with etch in NAND. And as you go to more layers, you need new materials, especially high-selectivity hardmasks were designed in to many of the next nodes as they ramp into high-volume manufacturing.

在 3D NAND 領域，隨著客戶將層數擴展到 96 層以上，我們透過 NAND 蝕刻技術贏得了新的應用。隨著層數的增加，需要新的材料，特別是高選擇性硬掩模，因此在許多後續節點中都進行了設計，以適應大規模生產。

We also have momentum with Integrated Materials Solutions. One example is in NAND where we do co-optimization of new hardmask films with the Sym3 etch. The co-optimization increases etch selectivity by about 50%. And we're seeing new dep and etch wins across multiple customers as we enable much better high aspect ratio patterning. So there's strong pull across all the NAND customers for new materials, new products, Integrated Materials Solutions. We're seeing both in NAND and in DRAM. So we're optimistic. We're going to continue to drive strong growth as customers scale to future nodes.

我們在整合材料解決方案方面也取得了進展。例如，在 NAND 中，我們將新的硬掩模薄膜與 Sym3 蝕刻製程進行協同優化。協同優化使蝕刻選擇性提高了約 50%。隨著我們實現更好的高縱橫比圖案化，我們看到多個客戶在新的沉積和蝕刻製程方面取得了成功。因此，所有 NAND 客戶都對新材料、新產品和整合材料解決方案有著強烈的需求。我們在NAND快閃記憶體和DRAM中都看到了這種情況。所以我們持樂觀態度。隨著客戶規模擴展到未來節點，我們將繼續保持強勁成長動能。

If I could sneak in a quick follow-up. Mike, you said we could do a quick one, second one. On the service side, you talked about the excellent growth in your installed base. And we're coming off of fiscal '19 growth of 3%. How are you thinking about the trajectory from here, particularly as utilization rates on the memory front start to move higher?

如果可以的話，我想快速補充一點。麥克，你說過我們可以快速完成第二個。在服務方面，您提到了客戶群的良好成長。我們上一財年（2019財年）的成長率為3%。您如何看待接下來的發展軌跡，尤其是在記憶體利用率開始不斷提高的情況下？

Yes. Thanks, C.J. This is Dan. I'll jump in and take that. So the services business is a great growth driver for us. It's been a steady source of revenue growth, cash flow generation. I would say, over the last handful of years, this is a business that's grown at a compound rate of about 15% per year. In the current downturn, current year, memory-driven downturn, utilization is falling. The business is a low single-digit grower. When you include things like refurbs and upgrades, you're a mid-single-digit grower. So good performance in a very difficult market that's down about mid-teens.

是的。謝謝，C.J.。我是丹。我來接手。因此，服務業務是我們重要的成長動力。它一直是收入成長和現金流產生的穩定來源。我認為，在過去的幾年裡，這項業務的複合年增長率約為 15%。在當前的經濟低迷時期，即今年的記憶驅動型經濟低迷時期，利用率正在下降。該業務的成長率僅為個位數。如果把翻新和升級之類的因素也算進去，你的成長率也就個位數中段。在市場整體下跌十幾個百分點的情況下，這樣的表現已經相當不錯了。

As we think about the performance of the business that drives those results, the long-term service agreement portion of the business this year was up mid-teens. It's really the transactional portion of our services business that's fallen with industry utilization and has been a headwind to growth this year. And that's in the sort of down 10%, 11%.

當我們思考推動這些業績的業務表現時，今年長期服務協議業務部分實現了兩位數以上的成長。真正導致我們服務業務交易部分下滑的是產業利用率下降，這已成為今年成長的阻力。這相當於下降了 10% 到 11%。

And as we profile into 2020, we really like the setup around our services business going forward. We think we can continue to execute on the long-term service agreements and continue to drive that performance at the levels we've seen historically. And when industry utilization recovers in memory, we would expect our transactional business to transition from a headwind of growth to a growth adder for us in 2020. So we really like the setup and the execution of the team in this environment. We think it sets us up well for 2020.

展望 2020 年，我們非常看好我們服務業務未來的發展方向。我們認為我們可以繼續履行長期服務協議，並繼續保持我們過去所看到的業績水準。當記憶體產業的利用率恢復時，我們預計到 2020 年，我們的交易業務將從成長的阻力轉變為成長的助力。所以我們非常欣賞這個團隊在這種環境下的組織架構和執行力。我們認為這為2020年奠定了良好的基礎。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿提夫‧馬利克。

Good job on the results and guidance. First, Gary, can you talk about the puts and takes between OLED and LCD in your kind of flattish display outlook at this point? We hear Samsung Display is resuming construction of A5 and some TV fabs in China are pushing out. And as my follow-up, Dan, if you can talk about the OpEx profile for the remainder of the fiscal '20?

結果和指導都做得很好。首先，Gary，在你目前這種較為扁平化的顯示技術觀點下，你能談談OLED和LCD之間的優缺點嗎？我們聽說三星顯示器公司正在恢復A5的生產，而中國的一些電視製造商正在加快生產進度。丹，我的後續問題是，您能否談談 2020 財年剩餘時間的營運支出？

Thanks, Atif, I'll actually take both parts of your question. So as we go to the display market and we think about how 2019 played out, it played out exactly as we expected. We said down about 1/3 year-over-year and that's where we ended up.

謝謝你，阿提夫，你的問題兩部分我都會回答。所以，當我們回顧 2019 年的顯示器市場時，它的發展完全符合我們的預期。我們預計將年減約三分之一，最終結果就是這樣。

Forecast expectations were set probably 3, 6 months ago. Embedded in that was incremental growth off of these levels. And what really drove that incremental growth is, as we said, solid performance of the TV market into next year and the handset market would recover creating incremental growth for the company. We think the handset market is going to play out exactly as expected. We're going to see recovery in the handset market.

預測預期可能是在3到6個月前設定的。其中蘊含著在此基礎上逐步成長的趨勢。正如我們所說，真正推動這一成長的是電視市場在明年的穩健表現，以及手機市場的復甦，這將為公司帶來成長。我們認為手機市場的發展將完全符合預期。我們將看到手機市場復甦。

What's happened in the interim in the TV side is, is we've seen several news headlines from some of our customers about delayed investments. There's a bit of inventory build on the TV side. Third-party research firm has come out and confirmed what we've been reading about in the headlines. And our customer conversations also confirm this dynamic. And so as we look forward into 2020, we think there's going to be some incremental softness on the TV side that reflects all of the news that's out in the market to date. We expect the handset to recover as we originally expected. And that gets us a flattish profile, similar revenue levels, to what we're seeing this year. That's the best way I would describe it.

在此期間，電視方面發生的事情是，我們看到一些客戶發布了多個關於投資延遲的新聞標題。電視機方面有一些庫存積壓。第三方研究公司已經出面證實了我們從新聞頭條所看到的內容。我們與客戶的溝通也證實了這種趨勢。因此，展望 2020 年，我們認為電視市場將會出現一些漸進式的疲軟，這反映了迄今為止市場上的所有消息。我們預計手機會像我們最初預期的那樣恢復正常。這樣一來，我們的營收曲線就會趨於平穩，與今年的情況類似。這是我能想到的最好的描述方式。

And then from an OpEx perspective, I think we're going to take this one quarter at a time. We came up to $800 million. We all know that profiling into Q2 there's the full impact of merit. And we don't get the benefit of the shutdown over the holiday season. And so maybe that goes up incrementally to $820 million to reflect that dynamic. That gives you a sense of where we level out on those typical seasonal aspects of transitioning from Q1 to Q2 and then we probably hover in that neighborhood for the rest of the year.

從營運支出角度來看，我認為我們會按季度來處理這件事。我們最終算出了8億美元。我們都知道，進入第二季後，績效評估將全面反映績效的影響。而且我們也沒能享受假期停工帶來的好處。因此，為了反映這種動態，這個數字可能會逐步上升到 8.2 億美元。這讓你大致了解了我們從第一季度過渡到第二季度時，在那些典型的季節性方面我們處於穩定狀態的位置，然後我們可能會在一年中的剩餘時間裡在這個範圍內徘徊。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, you talked quite a bit about your expectations around new products into next year. I was hoping you could remind us roughly what percentage of WFE you guys serve today at Applied and how that would expand with some of these new products going into 2020 and 2021? And kind of related to that, obviously, you seem to be picking up share nicely in 2019, what are your kind of preliminary expectations into 2020 when you think about your potential outperformance relative to the market? And then I have a follow-up.

Gary，你談了很多關於明年新產品的期望。我希望您能大致提醒我們一下，Applied 目前服務於多少比例的 WFE（工作場所設備製造商），以及隨著 2020 年和 2021 年一些新產品的推出，這一比例將如何增長？與此相關的是，顯然，你們在 2019 年的市佔率似乎成長良好，那麼，考慮到你們相對於市場的潛在超額收益，你們對 2020 年的初步預期是什麼？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Toshiya, this is Dan. On the first one, the percentage of the addressable market that we focus on, it's going to vary from year-to-year depending on the spend mix and profile of our customers. But the best way to think about it is low to mid-60s part of WFE are markets that we can address in any given year. That's going to vary and change again from year-to-year depending on that profile mix. And I think some of the new products that we end up bringing to market, I think it's going to help drive growth in share in the current markets that we serve. Maybe there's some adjacencies we begin to look at. Maybe it pushes it towards the higher end of the range over time, but it's still going to be in that low to mid-60 ZIP code depending on any given year and what customers happen to be spending on.

Toshiya，這位是Dan。第一個方面，即我們關注的目標市場百分比，將根據我們客戶的消費組合和概況而逐年變化。但最好的理解方式是，WFE 的 60% 到 50% 的部分是我們每年都可以解決的市場。這會因人口結構的變化而每年有所不同。我認為我們最終推向市場的一些新產品，將有助於推動我們在現有市場份額的成長。或許我們可以開始專注於一些鄰近關係。隨著時間的推移，它可能會向該範圍的高端靠攏，但根據每年的具體情況以及顧客的消費情況，它仍然會處於 60 郵遞區號區域的低端到中端水平。

Yes. Toshiya, I guess, I can also add a little bit of color. I think relative to the different areas where we compete today, definitely, we're driving innovations and unit processes around deposition, removal, modification and analysis. We have momentum with some new products and we have some major new products in the pipeline that we're driving.

是的。俊也，我想我也可以增添一些色彩。我認為，就我們目前所競爭的不同領域而言，我們無疑正在圍繞沉積、去除、改性和分析推動創新和單元流程。我們有一些新產品正在研發中，我們正在大力推動一些重要的新產品。

But beyond that, as we've talked about before, you've got AI, big data, a need for 1,000x improvement in performance per watt and classic Moore's Law 2D scaling not being enough really to meet those needs for performance per watt. So we're not only driving unit processes. One thing that we've also been driving are the Integrated Materials Solutions. We're co-optimizing steps and even integrating multiple steps in a single system under high vacuum.

但除此之外，正如我們之前討論過的，還有人工智慧、大數據，每瓦性能需要提高 1000 倍，而經典的摩爾定律二維擴展並不足以真正滿足每瓦性能的需求。所以我們不僅僅是在推動單元流程。我們一直在推進的另一項工作是整合材料解決方案。我們正在對各個步驟進行協同優化，甚至在高真空條件下將多個步驟整合到一個系統中。

And we have really strong pull from customers, again, not just for unit processes where, again, I want to emphasize, we're driving very hard with some big, new products in the pipeline. Some we already see some adoption, early momentum. But beyond that, it's really how do we enable not just materials or removal, how do we create structures, shape structures, modify and analyze structures. And I spend a lot of my time with R&D leaders across our customer base, tremendously strong pull for improvements in power and performance. And Applied is in the best position, both with unit processes and with these integrated processes to enable the future. So tremendous, tremendous pull for both of those different areas.

而且我們確實得到了客戶的強烈需求，這不僅僅是針對單元流程，再次強調，我們正在大力推動一些正在研發中的大型新產品。有些產品我們已經看到一些採用，發展勢頭良好。但除此之外，真正的問題是，我們如何實現的不僅是材料的移除，而是如何創造結構、塑造結構、修改和分析結構。我花了很多時間與我們客戶群中的研發負責人交流，他們對提升功率和效能有著非常強烈的需求。Applied 公司憑藉其單元流程和整合流程，處於最有利的地位，能夠引領未來。因此，這兩個領域都具有巨大的吸引力。

And then if I can squeeze one in as a follow-up. Dan, can you give us an update on the Kokusai acquisition? What are some of the regulatory hurdles that you still need to overcome? And then, I guess, with the acquisition, you're obviously gaining some exposure to batch processing. But when you look across your product and technology portfolio at this point, do you feel like it's complete or is future M&A still on the table?

然後，如果我能擠出時間再補充一個的話。Dan，可以為我們介紹一下 Kokusai 收購案的最新進展嗎？您還需要克服哪些監管障礙？然後，我想，透過這次收購，你們顯然會接觸到批量處理。但當你審視你目前的產品和技術組合時，你覺得它已經完善了嗎？還是說未來的併購仍在考慮中？

Yes. Thanks, Toshiya. I'll jump in on the first part, transition to Gary on the second part. For Kokusai, there's no change in the timing of the transaction. We announced a 12-month time line when we announced the transaction. We've received regulatory approval in Ireland, in Israel. We had 4 other geographies. We're continuing to stay close to the regulators in those geographies. And we like the progress we're making, but no change to the time line from what we announced when we announced the transaction.

是的。謝謝你，Toshiya。第一部分我先發言，第二部分交給 Gary 發言。對於國際匯款而言，交易時間並沒有變動。我們在宣布交易時就宣布了12個月的時間表。我們已獲得愛爾蘭和以色列的監管部門批准。我們還有其他 4 個地理區域。我們將繼續與這些地區的監管機構保持密切聯繫。我們對目前的進展感到滿意，但時間表與我們宣布交易時宣布的時間表保持一致。

Yes, Toshiya. Relative to Kokusai, we still see it as a great opportunity to expand our markets with batch technology and services to accelerate innovation for customers. So nothing's changed in all of the feedback we're getting from customers versus what we saw at the beginning relative to the opportunity to create value.

是的，俊也。相對於 Kokusai，我們仍然認為這是一個利用批量技術和服務拓展市場、加速客戶創新的絕佳機會。所以，從客戶那裡得到的所有回饋，與我們最初看到的關於創造價值的機會相比，沒有任何變化。

Relative to M&A, our strategy really hasn't changed. We continue to focus on 3 things: a great financial return, synergy to accelerate our customer value and also our growth and market leadership potential. And we still believe we have a very good organic growth opportunity, so the bar remains very high. And we're not needy for M&A, but anything that we look at that fits that criteria, we definitely will continue to investigate and move forward if we find something that fits that criteria.

在併購方面，我們的策略其實並沒有改變。我們將繼續專注於三件事：獲得豐厚的財務回報，透過綜效加速提升客戶價值，以及實現成長和市場領導地位的潛力。我們仍然相信我們擁有非常好的內生成長機會，因此標準仍然很高。我們並不急需併購，但任何符合這些標準的目標，我們一定會繼續調查，如果發現符合這些標準的目標，我們一定會推動收購。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

Congrats on the good results. I have 2 of them. One is for either Dan or Gary. I think in the past, you guys have spoken about data analytics, talking about 2-year out WFE. Maybe you want to think about it, maybe not. If not, I'm just trying to put numbers around it. If next year, all else being the same as this year, if NAND WFE is up 10%, what kind of growth expectation should we expect for AMAT's NAND business or your semi business? And then as a quick follow-up for Dan, I think you mentioned this. In your Jan quarter guidance, did you give any breakdown between foundry/logic, DRAM and NAND?

恭喜取得好成績。我有兩個。其中一件是給丹或加里的。我認為過去你們曾談到數據分析，談到兩年後的WFE（世界未來展望）。或許你想考慮一下，或許不想。如果不是，我只是想用數字來描述它。如果明年其他條件與今年相同，NAND WFE 成長 10%，那麼我們應該對 AMAT 的 NAND 業務或貴公司的半導體業務抱持怎樣的成長預期？然後，我想快速補充一下丹的問題，我想你之前提到過這一點。在1月的季度業績指引中，您是否對晶圓代工/邏輯電路、DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體進行了細分？

And Krish, I didn't understand the first part of your question. You said something about analytics, but then I heard you talk about NAND. So I don't know if we just -- I know you're in Europe. Maybe we missed a syllable.

克里什，你問題的第一部分我沒聽懂。你剛才提到了分析技術，但後來我又聽到你談到了NAND​​快閃記憶體。所以我不知道我們是不是——我知道你在歐洲。或許我們漏掉了一個音節。

Let me just make it simple. If in 2020, everything else being equal, if NAND WFE is up 10% -- I'm just putting some numbers out there -- how should we expect AMAT's semiconductor business driven by NAND to perform or outperform? And also on the Jan quarter, did you give a breakdown between foundry/logic, DRAM and NAND?

我盡量把話說清楚。如果 2020 年，在其他條件相同的情況下，NAND WFE 成長 10%——我只是舉個例子——我們應該如何預期 AMAT 由 NAND 驅動的半導體業務表現如何或表現優異？另外，關於一月份的季度業績，您是否提供了晶圓代工/邏輯電路、DRAM 和 NAND 快閃記憶體的詳細資料？

Okay. So thanks, Krish. From a WFE standpoint, we don't want to get into guides around next year. But what I would say is, since Gary has come into the company, we've become very balanced as a company in terms of our penetration of device types. This is a very balanced company. I think we're seeing the benefits of that in this environment as we inflect from one device type to another. And I think it serves the company well. In a time of uncertainty, the company has worked hard, made a lot of investments to create that very balanced portfolio by device type. And so without being specific, I would just leave you with that contextual thought that we're fairly agnostic to how these device types flash in one quarter or another. And I think that gives you some parameters on how to think about things.

好的。謝謝你，克里什。從 WFE 的角度來看，我們不想在明年左右開始製定指南。但我想說的是，自從 Gary 加入公司以來，我們在設備類型的滲透方面，公司已經變得非常平衡了。這是一家非常均衡的公司。我認為，隨著我們從一種設備類型過渡到另一種設備類型，我們正在這種環境下看到它的好處。我認為這對公司很有好處。在充滿不確定性的時期，該公司付出了巨大的努力，進行了大量投資，創造了按設備類型劃分的非常均衡的產品組合。因此，在不具體說明的情況下，我只想留給大家一個背景性的想法，那就是我們對這些設備類型在不同季度的閃光方式都相當漠不關心。我認為這能為你思考問題提供一些指導原則。

From a guidance standpoint, we don't guide by device type. But the thing I would highlight is, next quarter will be a record quarter for us in foundry/logic based on the guidance that we've given, but we typically don't guide by device type.

從指導角度來看，我們不按設備類型進行指導。但我想強調的是，根據我們給出的預期，下個季度將是我們在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域創紀錄的一個季度，但我們通常不會按裝置類型給出預期。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Yes. Congratulations on the strong results. Gary, I guess my first question. You guys did a good job kind of talking about trends relative to device type. I'd like to get an update from you just on China for this calendar year. And then when you look out to 2020, how important is growth from China relative to your optimism next year?

是的。恭喜你們取得優異成績。加里，我想我的第一個問題是…你們在討論與設備類型相關的趨勢方面做得很好。我想了解您今年對中國的最新情況。那麼，展望 2020 年，中國經濟成長對您明年的樂觀預期有多重要？

Okay. Yes. Thanks for the question. Our view on China is pretty similar to what we've communicated before. The domestic China market is incrementally stronger than our view at the beginning of the year, within the range of what we had expected, but incrementally stronger. And we now anticipate domestic China will be up from last year to around $6.5 billion.

好的。是的。謝謝你的提問。我們對中國的看法與我們先前表達的看法基本一致。中國國內市場比我們年初的預期略有強勢，雖然仍在我們預期的範圍內，但確實略有強勢。我們現在預計中國國內市場規模將比去年增長至約 65 億美元。

Longer term, I've been in many meetings and conferences over the last several years, and my message is the same today as it's been over the last several years. We still expect steady growth in China. So we think next year will be another year of investments. But we don't see hockey sticks. Again, what we do is we look at leading indicators for all of the different projects, either domestic or international.

從長遠來看，過去幾年我參加過很多會議和研討會，我今天傳達的訊息與過去幾年一樣。我們仍預期中國經濟將維持穩定成長。所以我們認為明年會是另一個投資之年。但我們沒看到曲棍球桿。我們所做的，是查看所有不同項目（無論是國內項目還是國際項目）的領先指標。

And again, our view is, again, very, very similar to what I've talked about in the past. We think there's going to be steady growth. We're positive about the market. We're positive about our position in the market. Our share continues to be healthy and accretive to our overall global market share. So that's kind of the top-level view for China.

再次重申，我們的觀點與我過去所談到的觀點非常非常相似。我們認為將會保持穩定成長。我們對市場持樂觀態度。我們對自己在市場中的地位充滿信心。我們的市場份額持續保持健康成長，並不斷提升我們在全球的整體市場份額。以上就是對中國的整體看法。

And just to add a couple of things to what Gary said, John. As you think about our planning, we always have base cases, we always have upsides. We'll be ready to respond if there's upside to our base case, but that's not currently baked into our planning assumptions. And Gary has it exactly right. We've been talking for several years now about slow, steady development of an ecosystem there, investing in technology road maps. We saw it last year. We see a follow-through on it this year. We'll see a follow-through on it again next year. And we're not planning for any hockey sticks associated with investments from that geography.

約翰，我還要補充幾句加里剛才說的話。在考慮我們的計劃時，我們總是會考慮基本情況和有利因素。如果我們的基本預期有上升空間，我們將做好應對準備，但這目前尚未納入我們的規劃假設中。加里說得完全正確。幾年來，我們一直在討論如何緩慢、穩定地發展當地的生態系統，並投資於技術路線圖。我們去年就看過了。我們預計今年會有後續行動。明年我們將再次看到後續進展。我們並不打算對來自該地區的投資採取任何類似曲棍球棒式上漲的策略。

That's helpful. Then as my follow-up, Gary. Just going back to your comments about foundry/logic looking sustainable going into calendar year '20. I guess just given the recent CapEx raise from TSMC and sort of the implied run rate from calendar fourth quarter, I guess there's a lot of concern in the investment community that perhaps from Q4 run rate levels things will have to come down as you go into 2020. I'd like to hear your view on that. And if foundry weakens in the back half of next year just because it's so strong now, do you think logic sort of picks up the slack? Is your comment about sustainability a full year figure comment or kind of a current run rate level comment?

那很有幫助。然後，我的後續問題是，加里。回到你之前關於代工/邏輯在2020年看起來可持續發展的評論。鑑於台積電最近增加了資本支出，以及從第四季度來看隱含的運行速度，我猜投資界很多人都擔心，隨著進入 2020 年，運行速度可能會從第四季度的水平下降。我想聽聽你的看法。如果鑄造業因為現在太強而在明年下半年走弱，你認為邏輯產業能否彌補這個缺口？您關於永續性的評論是指全年數據，還是指當前的運作水準？

Yes. Thanks, John. Let me jump in on that and give you my perspective. So what we see in the foundry/logic right now, I would consider and characterize as demand-led. We had a solid Q4 in the foundry/logic market. Implicit in the guide for Q1 is a record foundry/logic quarter for this company. We ended the year with backlog at record levels. So the foundry/logic view, we see follow through into next year, and it's not a one quarter phenomenon.

是的。謝謝你，約翰。讓我插一句，說說我的看法。所以，我們現在在晶圓製造/邏輯領域看到的，我認為是需求驅動的。我們在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片市場取得了穩健的第四季業績。第一季業績指南中隱含著該公司在晶圓廠/邏輯電路方面創下季度新紀錄。年底時，我們的積壓訂單數量達到了歷史最高水準。因此，我們認為代工/邏輯方面的觀點會延續到明年，這並非一個季度的現象。

There's strong pull from customers for the tools. It's multiple customers and multiple nodes, which gives us a sense of comfort. We take a look at the foundry market and one foundry customer well into the ramp of N7, volume production at N7 plus, N5 in risk production, volume production in the first half of 2020 and N6 risk production in the first half of '20, volume production in the second half of 2020. You could make other similar comments about leading-edge technology nodes ramping at other foundry/logic customers exposed to the leading edge, so multiple customers, multiple nodes.

顧客對這些工具的需求非常強烈。多個客戶和多個節點，這讓我們感到安心。我們考察了鑄造市場，並重點關註一家鑄造客戶，該客戶已在 N7 階段穩步推進，並在 N7 階段實現了批量生產；同時，他們還在 N5 階段進行風險生產，計劃在 2020 年上半年實現批量生產；此外，他們還在 N6 階段進行風險生產，計劃在 2020 年上半年實現批量生產。你也可以對其他代工廠/邏輯客戶正在採用的尖端技術節點做出類似的評論，因為這些客戶也接觸到了尖端技術，所以會有多個客戶，多個節點。

In addition to seeing strength on the leading edge, continue to see strength on trailing node geometries and specialty nodes. That continues. And while we don't have perfect visibility for the full year, we're very positive on the foundry/logic market over the long run. We are layering in the next wave of compute in the semiconductor industry to complement what is already there in the form of PC demand and mobile compute demand. We've got new architectures hitting data centers, lots of new tapeouts. Cloud demand is recovering, 5G beginning to kick in. We see a proliferation of intelligent edge devices and auto is growing.

除了在前沿領域展現出強勁勢頭外，在後緣節點幾何形狀和特殊節點領域也持續展現出強勁勢頭。這種情況仍在繼續。雖然我們無法完全預測全年的市場走勢，但我們對晶圓代工/邏輯晶片市場的長期前景非常樂觀。我們正在半導體產業中逐步引入下一波運算浪潮，以補充現有的個人電腦需求和行動運算需求。我們有新的架構進入資料中心，很多新的晶片正在流片。雲端需求正在復甦，5G 開始發揮作用。我們看到智慧邊緣設備激增，汽車產業也在蓬勃發展。

And so as we take a step back, we see the strength continuing into next year. We're really positive about the long run. But as I provide a little more context on 2020, the company is performing well. We talked about the backlog entering the year. We talked about strength in foundry/logic. We talked about AGS setup and looks good as we profile into next year. Swing factor next year for us is timing of the memory recovery. For us, it's a matter of when, not if. And so it's really tough to determine the timing and magnitude of that. And we'll stay close to the market, stay close to our customers. And as new information becomes available, we'll try to be as open and transparent as we can be to help the investors.

因此，當我們回顧過去時，可以看到這種強勁勢頭將延續到明年。我們對長遠前景非常樂觀。但就 2020 年而言，該公司表現良好。我們討論了年初積壓的工作量。我們討論了鑄造/邏輯方面的優勢。我們討論了AGS的設置，看起來不錯，並有望明年取得好成績。明年對我們來說的關鍵因素是記憶恢復的時機。對我們來說，這只是時間問題，而不是會不會發生的問題。因此，要確定其發生的時間和規模真的很難。我們將密切關注市場，並密切關注我們的客戶。隨著新資訊的出現，我們將盡可能做到公開透明，以幫助投資者。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Nice job on the quarterly execution. On the better performance in AGS in the October quarter and a strong outlook into January, I would assume that the long-term subscription part of the model is very predictable. So was the incremental strength the transactional business maybe starting to come back as some of your customer utilization start to rise? Are they bringing back some idle capacity? And if it is that, is it more foundry/logic or memory-driven?

季度業績執行得很好。鑑於 AGS 在 10 月季度的良好表現以及對 1 月的強勁展望，我認為該模型的長期訂閱部分是可以預測的。那麼，隨著部分客戶使用率的提高，交易業務的成長動能是否開始回升了呢？他們是否要恢復一些閒置產能？如果是這樣的話，它是更偏向代工/邏輯還是記憶體驅動？

Yes. Thanks, Harlan. You're right. The long-term service agreement part of the business is continuing to chug along. We really like the performance, and that's against the backdrop of a tough market. We talked about the transactional nature of the business, transactional spares, last quarter being a bit of a temporary dynamic with a limited number of customers. And this is us just getting back to a more normalized environment. Clearly, customers are seeing the strength we're beginning to flash in foundry/logic. I think we're seeing some early signs around the setup for memory as we go forward led by NAND than DRAM. And it's hard to really parse against that contextual backdrop exactly what's in customers' minds when they drive the transactional part of the business. I would just say, in general, it feels like a good setup with some positive momentum, and we feel good about that setup as we look into 2020.

是的。謝謝你，哈蘭。你說得對。公司的長期服務協議業務部分仍在穩步推進。我們非常滿意它的表現，尤其是在市場環境艱難的情況下。我們討論了業務的交易性質、交易性備件，以及上個季度由於客戶數量有限而出現的暫時性動態。而我們現在正逐漸恢復到比較正常的環境。顯然，客戶已經看到了我們在晶圓代工/邏輯電路領域中開始展現出的實力。我認為我們已經看到了記憶體發展的一些早期跡象，NAND 將會比 DRAM 更受青睞。在這種背景條件下，很難真正了解客戶在推動業務交易部分時究竟在想些什麼。總的來說，我覺得這是一個不錯的局面，勢頭良好，展望 2020 年，我們對這種局面感到樂觀。

Harlan, I think the big needle mover is really memory, memory utilization. Certainly, the agreements, as Dan said, were up to maybe close to 60% of spares and service with agreements where we have higher revenue per tool. But the big incremental driver will be when memory comes back and utilization goes up in those memory factories. And certainly, as Dan said earlier, we expect that to happen in NAND first. And we, as he said earlier, it's a question of when, not if. So it's definitely going to happen in some time here, and we hope the NAND starts in 2020.

哈蘭，我認為真正起作用的是內存，是內存利用率。正如丹所說，這些協議確實涵蓋了備件和服務，可能占到總收入的 60% 左右，而且每件工具的收入也更高。但真正推動成長的因素將是記憶體恢復生產以及記憶體工廠利用率提高的時候。當然，正如丹之前所說，我們預計這種情況會首先在 NAND 中發生。正如他之前所說，這只是時間問題，而不是會不會發生的問題。所以這件事肯定會在不久的將來發生，我們希望 NAND 快閃記憶體能在 2020 年開始普及。

And when we think about cost per bit declines in memory, both DRAM and NAND, the rate of those declines is decelerating pretty dramatically. So productivity by your customers is a big focus. More batch-based systems is a focus and one of the drivers for the Kokusai acquisition. But what else is the Applied team doing to help customers improve productivity?

當我們考慮記憶體（包括 DRAM 和 NAND）每位元成本的下降時，會發現這些下降的速度正在急劇放緩。因此，提高客戶的生產力是您關注的重點。更注重批量處理的系統是我們的重點，也是我們收購 Kokusai 的驅動因素之一。除了以上措施，Applied 團隊還在採取哪些措施來幫助客戶提高生產力？

Yes. Thanks for the question. So I talked earlier about co-optimizing hardmask materials with etch to improve etch selectivity. Now that's certainly for the high aspect ratio patterning incredibly important. We have other cases where we're working with customers on patterning, where we're reducing -- I mentioned that earlier, we're reducing the cost of multiple patterning. In some cases, we're able to reduce the cost 30% and also enable better pattern placement. So for memory, especially in NAND, those are some of the areas we're driving.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我之前談到過透過對硬掩模材料和蝕刻製程進行協同優化來提高蝕刻選擇性。這對於高縱橫比圖案來說當然非常重要。我們還有其他一些案例，我們正在與客戶合作進行模式化，以降低——我之前提到過，我們正在降低多種模式化的成本。在某些情況下，我們能夠降低 30% 的成本，並且還能實現更好的圖案佈局。所以，對於記憶體，特別是 NAND 記憶體，這些都是我們正在努力發展的領域。

Another area is in the performance with the periphery going to more logic-like structures, especially higher speed memory devices. That's an area that plays to our leadership products. And certainly, we see tremendous traction from customers in those areas. I think longer term, it's about how do you optimize new structures, creating, shaping, modifying, analyzing new structures. We have a lot that we're doing today in co-optimization of those capabilities. A tremendous amount in the pipeline where we have very strong customer pull.

另一個面向是效能，週邊設備朝向更像邏輯的結構發展，尤其是高速儲存設備。這正是我們領導力產品所擅長的領域。當然，我們看到這些地區的客戶對此表現出了極大的興趣。我認為從長遠來看，關鍵在於如何優化新結構，如何創造、塑造、修改和分析新結構。我們目前正致力於對這些能力進行協同優化。我們正在籌備大量項目，這些項目都有非常強勁的客戶需求。

And operator and people on the call, I think that we're running a little short on time. We know there's a lot of people in the queue. (Operator Instructions)

接線生和通話中的各位，我覺得我們時間有點不夠用了。我們知道排隊的人很多。（操作說明）

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I've heard with a lot of interest the answer you've given on your outlook in logic and how you see things evolving. Is there a way you could give us some sense of how your exposure is going to change on 2 specific nodes? So the ones I have in mind are the TSMC nodes, when TSMC moves from 7-nanometer to 7-plus. So some kind of critical dimensions, but more EUV insertion. And at Intel, between the 10-nanometer node and the 7-nanometer node, same thing, a lot of additional EUV layers. I understand you guys remain very well exposed to this new EUV heavy nodes, but I imagine that when you move from multiple patterning to EUV, the type of business you get is different. So could you describe that for us, please?

我非常感興趣地聽了您關於邏輯觀點以及您如何看待事物發展演變的回答。您能否簡要說明一下，在兩個特定節點上，您的風險敞口將如何改變？所以我指的是台積電的製程節點，也就是台積電從 7 奈米製程過渡到 7 奈米以上的製程節點。所以有一些關鍵尺寸，但更多的是EUV插入。在英特爾，10 奈米節點和 7 奈米節點之間也是一樣，增加了許多額外的 EUV 層。我知道你們仍然非常關注這種新型的 EUV 重度節點，但我認為，當你們從多重圖案化過渡到 EUV 時，你們所獲得的業務類型就會有所不同。您能為我們描述一下嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Pierre. So it's important to remember that when customers are scaling, I would say the first thing is that they're driving 5 different areas where shrinking is 1 of those 5 different areas. We talked about new architectures, new structures, new materials, new ways to connect chips together and the shrink. So again, we have tremendously unique technologies enabling that new playbook. And I'm with one of the R&D leaders for one of our customers next week. I'm with another one the following week. Again, constantly, we're getting tremendous pull in driving power and performance because it's very, very, very difficult. So the first thing I would say is that, we have unique capabilities in enabling the new playbook. That's where we're investing. That's where we have tremendous engagements with customers.

是的。謝謝你，皮埃爾。因此，重要的是要記住，當客戶規模擴大時，首先要考慮的是，他們正在推動 5 個不同的領域，而規模縮減是這 5 個不同領域之一。我們討論了新的架構、新的結構、新的材料、新的晶片連接方式以及晶片尺寸的縮小。所以，我們再次擁有非常獨特的技術，可以實現這種新的策略。下週我將和我們一位客戶的研發負責人一起會面。下週我還要和另一個人一起。再次強調，我們在驅動力和性能方面不斷獲得巨大的推動力，因為這非常、非常、非常困難。所以，我首先要說的是，我們在實施新策略方面擁有獨特的能力。這就是我們投資的方向。我們正是在這裡與客戶建立了非常緊密的聯繫。

So then if you think about shrinking, I talked earlier on the call about where we're working with customers on multiple patterning. And there are cases where we're able to reduce the number of steps by 30% and increase pattern placement. So that's another area we're doing co-optimization. And it's also important to remember that as you're scaling and EUV layers come in, some other steps also need to shrink and multi-patterning is still growing. So with Applied, the EUV steps that are coming in to replace other steps are not our steps. So Applied has opportunities and we are winning when EUV is being adopted in some of those replacement steps. There's this focus on multi-patterning where we're focused on reducing steps, reducing costs.

所以，如果你考慮縮小規模，我之前在電話會議上談到了我們正在與客戶合作多種模式。有些情況下，我們可以減少 30% 的步驟，並增加圖案的放置。所以，這是我們進行協同優化的另一個領域。同時要記住的是，隨著規模的擴大和 EUV 層的引入，其他一些步驟也需要縮小，而多重圖案化仍在不斷發展。因此，Applied 採用的 EUV 步驟將取代其他步驟，但這並不是我們自己的步驟。因此，應用材料公司擁有機遇，並且在某些替換步驟中採用 EUV 技術時，我們正在取得成功。我們專注於多模式化，致力於減少步驟、降低成本。

I think another, Pierre, another really good example is in 2019 in foundry/logic we have very strong momentum with our Sym3 etcher. And this is where you're seeing the highest EUV adoption. We're seeing very high growth in 2019 with wins across many customers. And we definitely see significant growth much faster than the market with our Sym3 etch business in leading foundry customers. And we anticipate based on the wins that we have, we're going to continue to grow at 5 and 3 as these new technologies are being adopted.

皮埃爾，我認為另一個很好的例子是，在 2019 年，我們在代工/邏輯領域憑藉 Sym3 蝕刻機取得了非常強勁的發展勢頭。這裡正是EUV光刻技術應用最廣泛的地區。2019年我們實現了非常高的成長，贏得了許多客戶的青睞。而且，我們的 Sym3 蝕刻業務在領先的代工廠客戶中實現了遠超市場平均水準的顯著成長。根據我們取得的成功，我們預計隨著這些新技術的採用，我們的業務將繼續在 5 和 3 方面成長。

Just another data point with Sym3. That's the fastest-ramping product in the history of Applied. We just shipped our 4,000th chamber and many of them going into foundry and logic. So that's kind of a top-level view. I would say, again, the key thing for all of these customers is how do they drive the technology road map for power and performance. 2D scaling is slowing down. They need new ways to drive the road map, and that's really the sweet spot for Applied Materials.

這是 Sym3 的另一個數據點。這是應用材料公司史上成長速度最快的產品。我們剛剛發貨了第 4000 個腔室，其中許多將用於鑄造和邏輯電路。以上是概覽。我想再次強調，對於所有這些客戶來說，關鍵在於他們如何推動動力和性能方面的技術路線圖。二維縮放速度正在放緩。他們需要新的方式來推動路線圖的製定，而這正是應用材料公司的優勢。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Patrick Ho。

Gary, I think you just provided a little bit of color already to the question I have. But with capital intensity trends for foundry and logic continuing to increase as we go from 7 to 5 and eventually 3. Aside from, say, like the etch Sym3 and products like that, where else are you seeing, I guess, increasing capital intensity trends on the foundry/logic end that helps both your leadership tools or your leadership businesses as well as some of the growth opportunities, aside from etch? Are you seeing it in deposition? Are you seeing it in the process control area? What other areas are you seeing that growth in capital intensity trends for your products?

加里，我覺得你已經為我的問題增添了一些色彩。但隨著代工和邏輯晶片的資本密集度從 7 級降至 5 級，最終降至 3 級，資本密集度趨勢持續上升。除了像 Echt Sym3 這樣的產品之外，您還看到代工/邏輯晶片領域有哪些資本密集度上升的趨勢，能夠幫助您提升領導工具或領導業務，並帶來一些成長機會？你在證詞中看到了嗎？您在製程控制區域看到這種情況了嗎？您認為貴公司產品在哪些其他領域也呈現資本密集成長的趨勢？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Patrick. So if we look at 2019, we talked about a record foundry/logic performance. And we have a very strong incumbent leadership position as you talked about in foundry/logic. A much larger business and more diverse business than our process tool appears. And that's driving our outperformance in 2019. So if we look at foundry/logic, in this calendar year, we'll have the highest foundry/logic revenue ever, highest epi revenue ever and highest metals revenue ever. So those are areas that are part of our leadership products. We're working with customers on new materials like tungsten deposition, shaping structures with selective removal, where we're gaining key wins. That's enabling performance gains for our customers and growth for Applied. So those are some of the areas where we're seeing growth.

是的。謝謝你的提問，派崔克。所以，如果我們回顧 2019 年，我們談到了 Foundry/Logic 創紀錄的表現。正如您在 Foundry/Logic 中提到的，我們擁有非常強大的現任領導地位。比我們流程工具顯示的規模更大、業務種類更豐富。這就是我們2019年業績優異的原因。因此，如果我們看一下晶圓代工/邏輯電路，在今年，我們將迎來有史以來最高的晶圓代工/邏輯電路收入、有史以來最高的外延片收入和有史以來最高的金屬材料收入。這些領域都屬於我們的領導產品範疇。我們正在與客戶合作開發鎢沉積等新材料，透過選擇性去除來塑造結構，並在這些領域取得了關鍵性的成功。這不僅能幫助我們的客戶提升業績，也能促進應用科技的發展。所以，以上就是我們看到成長的一些領域。

In terms of 2019, we're also seeing strong growth besides etch in CVD, thermal. And you talked about inspection, that's an area where we just introduced a new product. We're seeing very strong adoption. And that will give us momentum to grow quickly in that business in 2020. So anyway, that's a little bit of color around some of the areas that we're driving. But it really does get back to driving power and performance, area and cost for customers and really more and more, not just with unit processes, but also with these integrated solutions is a sweet spot for Applied and gives us tremendous momentum going forward.

就 2019 年而言，除了 CVD 和熱蝕刻之外，我們還看到其他領域實現了強勁成長。您剛才提到了檢驗，而我們剛剛在這個領域推出了一款新產品。我們看到市場反應非常熱烈。這將為我們在 2020 年快速發展該業務提供動力。總之，這就是我們沿途某些區域的一些色彩。但歸根究底，還是要回到驅動力、性能、面積和成本等方面，為客戶創造價值。而且，不僅是單元流程，這些整合解決方案也越來越成為應用科技的優勢所在，並為我們未來的發展提供了巨大的動力。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的Timothy Arcuri。

Dan, I guess I had a question on gross margin guidance. There's hardly any incremental drop-through year-over-year, yet you're doing like $350 million more in revenue, but gross margin is the same. I guess it's a little surprising because SSG, which is the highest-margin segment, is up a lot year-over-year. So are SSG margins lower in January because it seems like the margins at a corporate level should be 150 basis points higher or something like that. So can you just walk me through that?

丹，我想問關於毛利率預期的問題。雖然年比幾乎沒有新增流失，但收入卻增加了約 3.5 億美元，而毛利率卻保持不變。我覺得這有點出乎意料，因為利潤率最高的SSG業務比去年同期成長了很多。所以，1 月 SSG 的利潤率較低，是因為公司層級的利潤率似乎應該高出 150 個基點左右。你能給我詳細解釋一下嗎？

Sure, Tim. We won't guide gross margins by segment. So let me share with you a little bit of what we do see in gross margin. As you know, gross margin any given quarter is always going to be a function of a few things, revenue level, segment mix, product mix, customer mix, factory activity, all are going to vary from quarter-to-quarter and go into the gross margin. We think our performance compares favorably with our peers over this cycle. Our peak-to-trough gross margin over this cycle was down about 210 basis points.

當然可以，提姆。我們不會以業務板塊提供毛利率指引。那麼，讓我來和大家分享一下我們在毛利率方面看到的情況。如您所知，任何一個季度的毛利率都取決於幾個因素，例如收入水平、細分市場組合、產品組合、客戶組合、工廠活動等等，所有這些因素都會因季度而異，並最終影響毛利率。我們認為，在本輪週期中，我們的表現優於同業。在本輪週期中，我們的毛利率從高峰到谷值下降了約 210 個基點。

Our next closest competitors in the process tool space, one was down 300, another one was down 310. And as we're profiling into the back part of the calendar year on a relative basis, I think that gross margin performance on a quarter-over-quart0er basis also looks pretty good. So we like how we're executing. Are we ever satisfied with our gross margins? No. Are we maniacally focused on driving improvements and improving the cost structure? Absolutely. We're going to keep at it. We're going to continue to work hard. And I think you're seeing the breadth and depth of our portfolio in a broad sense play out in the gross margin resiliency over the course of the cycle.

我們在工藝工具領域最接近的競爭對手，一家下降了 300，另一家下降了 310。隨著我們相對回顧今年後半段的情況，我認為季度環比毛利率表現也相當不錯。我們對目前的執行情況很滿意。我們對自己毛利率是否滿意？不。我們是否過於執著於推動改善和優化成本結構？絕對地。我們會堅持下去。我們將繼續努力。我認為，從廣義上講，我們投資組合的廣度和深度體現在了整個週期中毛利率的韌性上。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。

And just thinking conceptually about next year, if foundry/logic sustains and memory is really incremental to the model, and I think display, you're starting at a low level, but just the run rate implies that you will grow through the year. Does that say your January quarter is the low point of the year in terms of sales and gross margins?

從概念上考慮明年，如果晶圓代工/邏輯電路保持穩定，內存對模型來說真的是增量，而且我認為顯示屏，雖然你現在處於較低水平，但僅憑運行速度就意味著你會在這一年中增長。這是否意味著貴公司一月份的季度銷售額和毛利率是全年最低點？

I'm sorry, Vivek, could you please repeat it? It cut out on this end. I just want to make sure I got the full question. Sorry.

對不起，維韋克，你能再說一次嗎？這端斷了。我只是想確認一下我是否完整地理解了問題。對不起。

Yes, of course, Dan. So if memory spending is incremental to the model from here on, and you said foundry and logic should sustain and even on the display side, I think you're starting at a low point in January. Does it say that your January quarter outlook is the low point of the year in terms of sales and gross margins, that things could actually conceptually get better in the year as memory recovers?

當然可以，丹。所以，如果從現在開始，內存支出是逐步增加的，而且你說過代工和邏輯電路應該能夠維持，甚至在顯示方面也是如此，我認為你們在 1 月份是從低谷開始的。報告是否指出，您1月份的季度預期是全年銷售額和毛利率的最低點，但隨著記憶力恢復，情況實際上可能會在今年好轉？

So I guess the best way for me to describe it because I think what we're going to do is we're going to guide one quarter at a time. And the environment is clearly better today than it was a quarter ago or 6 months ago. And what I would say, just at the very highest level, the company is performing well. We've got a good backlog entering the year. You pointed out strength in foundry/logic services. Swing factor in the year, I said it before, it's really the essence of the issue. The swing factor for the year is going to be what happens in the memory market. So we're going to stay close to customers. We're going to be ready to respond when the NAND market starts to hit followed by DRAM. And we'll take it one quarter at a time. So I don't think we want to start giving multiple quarter guidance and shaping the full year given some of the uncertainty we see from a timing standpoint on when things like memory are going to start to flash.

所以我覺得最好的描述方式就是，因為我們接下來要做的就是，一次指引一個季度。如今的環境顯然比三個月前或六個月前好得多。我想說的是，從最高層次來看，公司表現良好。今年年初我們積壓了不少訂單。您指出了我們在代工/邏輯服務方面的優勢。我之前說過，這一年的搖擺因素才是問題的關鍵。今年的風向將取決於記憶體市場的趨勢。所以我們會與客戶保持密切聯繫。我們將做好準備，在NAND快閃記憶體市場開始蓬勃發展時迅速做出反應，隨後是DRAM市場。我們將一步一步來。因此，考慮到記憶體等功能何時開始恢復正常存在一些時間上的不確定性，我認為我們不應該開始給出多個季度的業績指引，也不應該對全年業績進行預測。

Our last question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

最後一個問題來自奎因·博爾頓 (Quinn Bolton) 與尼德姆公司 (Needham & Company) 的合作。

I guess I just wanted to follow up on John and Vivek's questions there. It seems almost illogical for us to assume that the foundry strength that you're seeing in the January quarter sustains at that quarterly level through each quarter of fiscal '20 because that would get the business up probably well into the teens, if not 20% year-on-year. And so again, I guess, I'm not asking you to necessarily guide us quarter-to-quarter, but isn't it logical to assume that you're probably not going to sustain that peak quarterly revenue at foundry in every quarter of 2020?

我只是想就約翰和維韋克提出的問題做個後續的解答。我們幾乎無法理解，為什麼我們假設您在 1 月份季度看到的鑄造業務實力能夠持續到 2020 財年的每個季度，因為如果能夠保持這樣的水平，業務同比增長率可能會達到 10% 甚至 20%。所以，我再次強調，我並不是要求您逐季度地指導我們，但是，假設您在 2020 年的每個季度都無法維持代工廠的季度收入峰值，這難道不是合乎邏輯的嗎？

Yes. No question, Quinn. And my sustainability into next year is really meant to be that it's not going to be a one quarter phenomenon. We've got a nice backlog. Q4 was a really nice quarter for us in foundry/logic. Q1 will be a record quarter. And I think it would be probably not the right place to set expectation to think every quarter is going to be at a record foundry/logic level. And so while the activity level can be nice, it doesn't always have to be a record.

是的。毫無疑問，奎因。我明年永續發展的目標，是確保這不會只是曇花一現。我們積壓了不少工作。第四季對於我們晶圓代工/邏輯電路部門來說是一個非常不錯的季度。第一季將創下紀錄。而且我認為，在這裡設定期望值，認為每個季度都會達到創紀錄的 Foundry/Logic 水平，可能並不合適。因此，雖然活動量很重要，但不一定要創下紀錄。

Okay. Great. Well, thank you, Quinn. And I think we're almost at the end of our hour. Dan, anything you would like to say in closing?

好的。偉大的。謝謝你，奎因。我想我們差不多快到一小時的尾聲了。丹，你最後還有什麼想說的嗎？

Sure, Mike. Just a couple of quick thoughts.

當然可以，麥克。幾個簡單的想法。

First, like I said at the beginning, I'm pleased with the way we ended the fiscal year and I especially like the setup for Applied in 2020 given the record year-end backlog and the momentum that we see in key parts of the business.

首先，正如我一開始所說，我對我們結束本財年的方式感到滿意，尤其喜歡 Applied 在 2020 年的佈局，因為年底積壓訂單創下歷史新高，而且我們在業務的關鍵領域看到了強勁的發展勢頭。

Second, we look forward to staying close to investors. December 3, Gary and I are going to be at the Crédit Suisse Conference in Scottsdale. Next week after that, I'll be at the UBS Conference in New York. In the meantime, we hope you all have a happy and safe Thanksgiving with your families.

其次，我們期待與投資者保持密切聯繫。12月3日，我和蓋瑞將前往斯科茨代爾參加瑞士信貸會議。下週，我將前往紐約參加瑞銀集團會議。同時，我們希望大家都能與家人度過一個快樂、安全的感恩節。

Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

麥克，我們結束通話吧。

Okay. Great. Thanks, Dan. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of our call is going to be available on our website by 5 p.m. Pacific Time, and we would like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你，丹。感謝各位今天蒞臨現場。我們電話會議的錄音將於下午5點前在我們的網站上提供。太平洋時間，我們感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。