應用材料 (AMAT) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把會議交給公司副總裁邁克爾·沙利文先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon. We appreciate you joining us for our first quarter of fiscal 2019 earnings call, which is being recorded. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

午安.感謝您參加我們2019財年第一季財報電話會議，本次電話會議正在錄音。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson，以及我們的財務長 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's current view of its industries, performance, products, share positions and business outlook. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance. Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-K and 8-K filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections and assumptions as of February 14, 2019, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

在開始之前，請允許我提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括應用材料公司目前對其所在行業、業績、產品、股份狀況和業務前景的看法。這些聲明存在風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異，且不構成對未來績效的保證。有關這些風險和不確定性的資訊包含在 Applied 向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理階層截至 2019 年 2 月 14 日的估計、預測和假設，Applied 公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP財務指標。與 GAAP 指標的調節表包含在今天的獲利新聞稿和我們的調節表幻燈片中，這些幻燈片可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在，我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike. In our first fiscal quarter of 2019, Applied Materials delivered solid results in a challenging business environment. Over the past 2 months, we have become increasingly cautious about near-term macroeconomic risks and have seen further pullback in customers' investments. At the same time, we remain highly optimistic about the long term. Powerful new growth drivers for the semiconductor and display industries are emerging, and we see tremendous opportunities for the company ahead.

謝謝你，麥克。在 2019 財年第一季度，應用材料公司在充滿挑戰的商業環境中取得了穩健的表現。過去兩個月，我們對近期宏觀經濟風險越來越謹慎，並看到客戶的投資進一步減少。同時，我們對長期前景仍保持高度樂觀。半導體和顯示器產業正在湧現出強大的新成長動力，我們看到公司未來擁有巨大的發展機會。

While we're taking appropriate actions to navigate current market dynamics, we are not losing focus on the bigger picture. We're making strategic investments in new technology, products and capabilities that will position Applied to play a bigger and brighter role in the future. In today's call, I'll start by providing more details about our outlook for the year ahead, then I'll talk about the future growth drivers that are reshaping our industry, and I'll finish by describing Applied's strategy and highlight some recent accomplishments and milestones.

在採取適當措施應對當前市場動態的同時，我們不會忽視大局。我們正在對新技術、新產品和新能力進行策略性投資，這將使應用材料在未來發揮更大、更光明的作用。在今天的電話會議上，我將首先詳細介紹我們對未來一年的展望，然後談談正在重塑我們行業的未來成長驅動因素，最後介紹應用材料的策略，並重點介紹一些最近的成就和里程碑。

Let me begin with the near-term environment and our current perspective on 2019. In the past quarter, there's been more negative than positive news with the whole industry facing challenges, which include: macro conditions in emerging markets that have weakened; smartphone demand falling short of expectations, particularly for high-end models which have more semiconductor content; and DRAM prices, which have declined as inventory levels build.

首先，我想談談近期環境以及我們目前對 2019 年的看法。在過去一個季度裡，負面消息多於正面消息，整個產業都面臨著挑戰​​，包括：新興市場的宏觀經濟環境走弱；智慧型手機需求低於預期，尤其是高階機型，因為高階機型的半導體含量更高；以及隨著庫存水準的增加，DRAM價格下降。

On the positive side, we've also observed that NAND inventories are coming down from very high levels seen in the fall, although they remain above normal levels. Fundamental dynamics in the memory market are healthy with very disciplined investment in new capacity and a strong commitment to advance the technology roadmap. And looking more broadly at semiconductor capital investment, it's important to note that we're in a period of market transition and diversification.

從積極的方面來看，我們也觀察到 NAND 庫存正在從秋季的極高水準下降，儘管它們仍然高於正常水準。記憶體市場的基本面發展良好，對新產能的投資非常有紀律性，並且堅定致力於推進技術路線圖。從更廣泛的半導體資本投資角度來看，值得注意的是，我們正處於市場轉型和多元化時期。

For the past several years, smartphones drove the majority of wafer fab equipment spending. This year, more than half of customers' investments will be driven by other categories as new growth drivers, including cloud data centers, IoT devices, 5G and automotive applications, gain momentum.

過去幾年，智慧型手機推動了晶圓製造設備的大部分支出。今年，隨著雲端資料中心、物聯網設備、5G 和汽車應用等新興成長動力不斷增強，超過一半的客戶投資將由其他類別驅動。

When we take all these factors into account, we see the following implications for Applied's served markets. Based on recent public comments by our customers, NAND bit demand is expected to grow in the mid-30% range this year, and DRAM bit demand in the mid- to high teens. As a result, we believe that investment by memory customers will be down substantially in 2019. However, we also expect channel inventory levels to normalize as the year progresses, creating a more favorable setup for 2020.

綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們發現這對 Applied 的服務市場有以下影響。根據我們客戶最近的公開評論，預計今年 NAND 位元需求將成長 30% 左右，DRAM 位元需求將成長 15% 到 20% 左右。因此，我們認為 2019 年記憶體客戶的投資將大幅下降。不過，我們也預期隨著時間的推移，通路庫存水準將趨於正常化，從而為 2020 年創造更有利的局面。

In foundry logic, we see investment being flat to slightly up year-on-year, but we expect a higher portion of the spending to be directed towards long lead-time equipment, specifically EUV lithography. While this represents a market share headwind for Applied in both 2018 and 2019, it's also a positive indicator of customers' future investment in leading-edge process tools. Overall, we believe that wafer fab equipment spending in 2019 will be down mid- to high teens on a percentage basis versus last year.

從代工廠的角度來看，我們認為投資額將與上年持平或略有增長，但我們預計支出中將有更高比例用於週期較長的設備，特別是 EUV 光刻設備。雖然這代表 Applied 在 2018 年和 2019 年的市佔率面臨不利因素，但也預示著客戶未來將加大對尖端製程工具的投資。整體而言，我們認為 2019 年晶圓製造設備支出將比去年下降 15% 到 10% 的百分比。

In display, weakness in emerging markets is also impacting the timing of customers' investment plans. We see some TV factory projects pushing out of the year and into 2020. As a result, we now believe our display equipment revenue in 2019 will decline by about 1/3 from 2018's record levels. We also expect revenue in the second fiscal quarter to be significantly lower than our average run rate for the year.

在展銷方面，新興市場的疲軟也影響客戶的投資計畫時機。我們看到一些電視工廠項目從今年推遲到 2020 年。因此，我們現在認為，2019 年我們的顯示設備收入將比 2018 年的創紀錄水準下降約三分之一。我們也預計第二財季的營收將遠低於全年的平均水準。

Over the longer term, we believe the display market remains attractive as the industry is going through several large technology transitions, as larger substrates are introduced in TV manufacturing, rigid OLED adoption increases in smartphones and expands to other applications, and initial flexible OLED products get closer to release. These inflections create important growth opportunities for Applied over the next several years.

從長遠來看，我們認為顯示器市場仍然具有吸引力，因為該行業正在經歷幾項重大的技術轉型，例如電視製造中引入了更大的基板，智慧型手機中剛性 OLED 的採用率不斷提高並擴展到其他應用領域，以及首批柔性 OLED 產品即將發布。這些轉折點為應用型公司在未來幾年創造了重要的成長機會。

While we're paying close attention to current headwinds and driving efficiencies across the company, we remain focused on our long-term opportunities. I strongly believe that in the future, technology will play a larger part in many areas of our lives. Entire industries will be transformed by artificial intelligence, big data and Industry 4.0, and at the foundation of those transformations are semiconductors. We're moving beyond a world of general-purpose computing to specialized solutions that address new types of applications and workloads in the cloud and at the edge. And while the need for semiconductor innovation has never been greater, classic Moore's law scaling is challenged. Simply shrinking transistors no longer delivers simultaneous improvements in the power, performance and cost of chips.

儘管我們密切關注當前的不利因素，並努力提高公司各部門的效率，但我們仍然專注於我們的長期機會。我堅信，未來科技將在我們生活的許多領域中發揮更大的作用。人工智慧、大數據和工業4.0將徹底改變整個產業，而這些變革的基礎是半導體。我們正在超越通用運算的世界，轉向專門的解決方案，以應對雲端和邊緣的新型應用程式和工作負載。雖然對半導體創新的需求從未如此迫切，但經典的摩爾定律卻面臨挑戰。僅僅縮小電晶體尺寸已經無法同時提高晶片的功率、性能和成本。

As I've said before, to unlock the full potential of AI and big data, we need a new playbook for semiconductor design and manufacturing, which will include new architectures, new 3D techniques, novel materials, new ways to shrink transistors and advanced packaging techniques. All 5 of these areas require major advances in materials engineering and create tremendous opportunities for Applied Materials.

正如我之前所說，要充分發揮人工智慧和大數據的潛力，我們需要一套新的半導體設計和製造方案，其中包括新的架構、新的 3D 技術、新型材料、縮小晶體管尺寸的新方法以及先進的封裝技術。這五個領域都需要材料工程的重大進步，並為應用材料公司創造了巨大的機會。

To enable this playbook and accelerate innovation for our customers, we are making investments in new capabilities, creating entirely new types of products and expanding our engagements across the ecosystem. For example, we recently announced that we're expanding our long-standing technology partnership with IBM as a member of their new AI hardware center. We're also making good progress with our new Materials Engineering Technology Accelerator, which is on track to open later this year. The META Center will support deeper collaborations with system architects, chip designers and the manufacturing community.

為了實現這一目標並加速客戶的創新，我們正在投資開發新的能力，創造全新的產品類型，並擴大我們在整個生態系統中的參與。例如，我們最近宣布，我們將擴大與 IBM 的長期技術合作夥伴關係，成為其新成立的 AI 硬體中心的一員。我們的新材料工程技術加速器專案也取得了良好進展，預計將於今年稍後開放。META 中心將支援與系統架構師、晶片設計師和製造業進行更深入的合作。

In addition to broadening our participation in the AI/big data inflection, we are also building a more resilient company with diversified revenue streams. The portion of our revenue generated from sources other than new 300-millimeter semiconductor equipment sales is increasing. Combined, we expect our services, spares, upgrades, consulting, software and display and flexible technology businesses to represent about 45% of total sales this year.

除了擴大我們在人工智慧/大數據轉型領域的參與度之外，我們還在打造一家更具韌性、收入來源多元化的公司。我們來自除新型 300 毫米半導體設備銷售以外的其他來源的收入比例正在增加。今年，我們預計服務、備件、升級、諮詢、軟體、顯示器和柔性技術業務合計將佔總銷售額的 45% 左右。

In Applied Global Services, our progress is fueled by our growing installed base and new advanced service products that help customers shorten ramp times, improve device performance and yields and optimize operating costs. We grew AGS revenue more than 20% in fiscal 2018, and we anticipate high single-digit growth this year, even with wafer fab equipment spending expected to be down significantly. One reason for this is that more than half our service and spares business now comes from subscription-type revenues in the form of long-term service agreements.

在應用全球服務領域，我們不斷增長的裝機量和新的先進服務產品推動著我們的進步，這些產品可以幫助客戶縮短啟動時間、提高設備性能和良率並優化營運成本。2018 財年，AGS 營收成長超過 20%，我們預計今年將實現高個位數成長，即使晶圓製造設備支出預計會大幅下降。其中一個原因是，我們超過一半的服務和備件業務現在都來自長期服務協議形式的訂閱收入。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'll quickly summarize. Given the elevated macro risks and the challenging environments in both the memory and display markets, our near-term outlook is one of caution. Despite these headwinds in 2019, we remain highly optimistic about the future. While we're taking steps to ensure our spending is aligned with short-term market conditions, we're focusing our investments on long-term opportunities. We're driving innovative new product development and building new capabilities that position Applied to play a bigger and broader role in the industry over the coming years.

在把電話轉給丹之前，我先快速總結一下。鑑於宏觀風險上升以及記憶體和顯示器市場環境充滿挑戰，我們對近期前景持謹慎態度。儘管 2019 年面臨這些不利因素，但我們對未來仍保持高度樂觀。在採取措施確保支出與短期市場狀況一致的同時，我們將投資重點放在長期機會上。我們正在推動創新產品的開發，並建立新的能力，使應用材料公司在未來幾年內在產業中發揮更大、更廣泛的作用。

Now Dan will provide his perspective on our performance and outlook.

現在丹將對我們的表現和前景發表他的看法。

Thanks, Gary. Today, I'll outline our financial strategy in the current environment, then summarize our Q1 financial results, provide our Q2 business outlook and give you an update on our new META Center in New York. As Gary outlined, the end markets that our customers serve weakened during the quarter. As a result, our semi equipment customers are taking proactive steps to carefully manage capacity additions and reduce inventories. This sets the industry up well for 2020 and beyond. We continue to expect the recovery to be shallow and gradual, and we're still not ready to call the bottom of the current cycle.

謝謝你，加里。今天，我將概述我們在當前環境下的財務策略，然後總結我們第一季的財務業績，提供我們第二季的業務展望，並向您介紹我們在紐約的新 META 中心的最新情況。正如 Gary 所概述的那樣，我們客戶所服務的終端市場在本季有所疲軟。因此，我們的半自動設備客戶正在採取積極措施，謹慎管理產能成長並減少庫存。這為該行業在 2020 年及以後的發展奠定了良好的基礎。我們仍然預期復甦將是淺而漸進的，我們仍然不認為當前週期已經觸底。

At the same time, it's important to put this year's spending into context. Our WFE forecast for 2019 is still billions of dollars higher than the peaks of all the prior cycles. Today, our backlog remains healthy, our profitability is solid, we're generating strong free cash flow and we're returning cash to shareholders. Most importantly, we see significant opportunities ahead, and we have the resources to make disciplined investments to secure technology leadership and growth.

同時，也需要將今年的支出放在更大的背景下看待。我們對 2019 年世界經濟展望的預測仍然比以往所有周期的峰值高出數十億美元。目前，我們的訂單儲備依然充足，獲利能力穩健，自由現金流強勁，並且正在向股東返還現金。最重要的是，我們看到了未來巨大的機遇，我們擁有足夠的資源進行審慎的投資，以確保技術領先地位和成長。

Our strategy is to navigate the current environment by carefully managing our overall expenses, fully funding our new product pipeline and maximizing our recurring revenue. Here are some specific examples. First, expense control. Our Q1 non-GAAP OpEx was $750 million, including savings from our holiday shutdown and only 1 month of our annual merit increase. In Q2, absent these same benefits, we're guiding our overall OpEx to be approximately flat sequentially. Next, R&D funding. Even in the current environment, we're investing more in R&D to strengthen and grow our new technology and product pipeline. Gary described how the industry needs new architectures and materials to enable better chips for AI. Later this year, we plan to introduce materials engineering solutions designed to accelerate the adoption of the next generation of memory chips, which will be highly enabling to cloud computing and the Internet of Things.

我們的策略是透過謹慎管理整體支出、為新產品研發提供充足資金以及最大限度地提高經常性收入來應對當前的環境。以下是一些具體例子。首先，控製成本。我們第一季的非GAAP營運支出為7.5億美元，其中包括假期停工節省的費用以及僅一個月的年度績效工資成長。第二季度，由於缺乏這些相同的收益，我們預計整體營運支出將與上一季基本持平。接下來是研發經費。即使在當前環境下，我們也在加大研發投入，以加強和發展我們的新技術和產品線。Gary 描述了該行業如何需要新的架構和材料來製造更好的 AI 晶片。今年晚些時候，我們計劃推出材料工程解決方案，旨在加速下一代儲存晶片的普及，這將大大促進雲端運算和物聯網的發展。

Third, recurring revenue. Gary described how our services revenue should be higher in 2019, even as WFE declines. We expect the transactional portion of our AGS revenue to grow more slowly this year as our customers work down excess inventories. But the subscription-like part of AGS should be higher year-over-year. In fact, in 2018, we grew the number of tools under comprehensive service agreements at 3x the rate of new system shipments. So we're doing a good job of delivering ongoing value to our customers across a larger portion of our installed base, which is the largest in the industry.

第三，經常性收入。Gary 描述了即使 WFE 下降，我們的服務收入在 2019 年也應該會更高。我們預計今年 AGS 交易收入部分的成長速度將放緩，因為我們的客戶正在逐步減少過剩庫存。但AGS的訂閱部分應該會逐年成長。事實上，2018 年，我們根據綜合服務協議增加的工具數量是新系統出貨量的 3 倍。因此，我們在為廣大客戶持續創造價值方面做得很好，我們的客戶群是業內最大的。

Next, I'll summarize our quarterly results. As a reminder, Applied adopted the ASC 606 standard for revenue recognition this quarter, using the full retrospective approach. Bear in mind, the differences between revenue recognized under ASC 606 and the old standard will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. But over time, they will offset each other and the cumulative difference will be minimal. As we expected, the adoption of ASC 606 had a minimal cumulative impact on the company, increasing our retained earnings by about $6 million.

接下來，我將總結我們的季度業績。再次提醒，Applied 本季採用了 ASC 606 收入確認準則，並使用了完全追溯法。請注意，根據 ASC 606 和舊準則確認的收入之間的差異會逐季度波動。但隨著時間的推移，它們會相互抵消，累積差異將變得微乎其微。正如我們預期的那樣，採用 ASC 606 對公司產生的累積影響微乎其微，使我們的留存收益增加了約 600 萬美元。

Now to the results. In Q1, we delivered revenue that was slightly above the midpoint of guidance. Our non-GAAP gross margin and operating expenses were at the midpoint of guidance. We generated non-GAAP earnings of $0.81, which was $0.02 above the midpoint, including the impact of a slightly higher tax rate.

現在公佈結果。第一季度，我們的營收略高於預期中位數。我們的非GAAP毛利率和營運費用均處於預期值的中點。我們實現了每股0.81美元的非GAAP收益，比中間值高出0.02美元，其中包括略高的稅率的影響。

Turning to the segments. Semiconductor Systems revenue was $2.27 billion and about 1 percentage point above the midpoint of our outlook. SSG's non-GAAP operating margin was 28.3%. Global Services revenue was $962 million and 2 points above the midpoint of our guidance. AGS non-GAAP operating margin was 29.6%. Display revenue was $507 million and 1 point above the midpoint of our guidance. The group's non-GAAP operating margin was 23.3%.

接下來進入分段部分。半導體系統業務收入為 22.7 億美元，比我們預期的中點高出約 1 個百分點。SSG 的非 GAAP 營業利益率為 28.3%。全球服務收入為 9.62 億美元，比我們預期的中點高出 2 個百分點。AGS 非 GAAP 營業利益率為 29.6%。展示廣告收入為 5.07 億美元，比我們預期的中位數高出 1 個百分點。該集團的非GAAP營業利益率為23.3%。

Turning to the balance sheet. We generated operating cash flow of $834 million, or 22% of sales. We returned $942 million to shareholders, including $750 million in buybacks. We ended the quarter with $5.3 billion in cash and investments and $3.6 billion remaining in our buyback authorization.

接下來看一下資產負債表。我們產生了 8.34 億美元的營運現金流，佔銷售額的 22%。我們向股東返還了 9.42 億美元，其中包括 7.5 億美元的股票回購。本季末，我們擁有 53 億美元的現金和投資，回購授權額度還剩 36 億美元。

Next, I'll provide our Q2 guidance. We expect company revenue to be approximately $3.48 billion, plus or minus $150 million. Within the outlook, we expect Silicon Systems revenue to be in the range of $2.15 billion, plus or minus $100 million. Services revenue should be $970 million, plus or minus $25 million. Our Display revenue should be in the range of $340 million, plus or minus $25 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margins of around 43.5% and non-GAAP OpEx of around $750 million, plus or minus $10 million. Non-GAAP earnings should be in the range of $0.62 to $0.70 per share, and our current non-GAAP tax rate expectation is approximately 14%. This is about 2 percentage points higher than our initial expectation for 2019. We've raised our rate expectation primarily to reflect the potential impact of new regulations proposed by the Treasury Department, along with our latest forecast for geographic revenue mix.

接下來，我將提供我們第二季的業績指引。我們預計公司營收約 34.8 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元。展望未來，我們預期 Silicon Systems 的營收將在 21.5 億美元左右，上下浮動 1 億美元。服務收入應為 9.7 億美元，上下浮動 2,500 萬美元。我們的展示廣告收入應該在 3.4 億美元左右，上下浮動 2,500 萬美元。我們預期非GAAP毛利率約43.5%，非GAAP營運支出約7.5億美元，上下浮動1,000萬美元。非GAAP收益應在每股0.62美元至0.70美元之間，我們目前的非GAAP稅率預期約為14%。這比我們對 2019 年的最初預期高出約 2 個百分點。我們上調利率預期主要是為了反映財政部提出的新規可能產生的影響，以及我們對地域收入組成的最新預測。

Now I'll close with an update on the R&D capabilities we're creating at our META Center in upstate New York. Over the past quarter, we received approvals needed to begin receiving $250 million in public funding, which is being used to purchase and install Applied Materials systems and other equipment. We've now shipped our first systems to the META Center, which will be one of the most advanced R&D centers in the world. We're already engaged with multiple customers to accelerate breakthroughs in semiconductor technology, along with new applications of our materials engineering capabilities, and we're on track to be running wafers in the second half of the year.

最後，我將介紹我們在紐約州北部 META 中心正在建立的研發能力。在過去的一個季度裡，我們獲得了開始接收 2.5 億美元公共資金所需的批准，這些資金將用於購買和安裝應用材料公司的系統和其他設備。我們已將首批系統運往 META 中心，該中心將成為世界上最先進的研發中心之一。我們已經與多家客戶合作，加速半導體技術的突破，以及材料工程能力的新應用，我們正按計劃在今年下半年開始生產晶圓。

Now, Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

麥克，現在我們開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's, please, begin.

謝謝你，丹。（操作員指令）操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from C.J. Muse from Evercore.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, 2-part question. In terms of your overall guide by segment, it looks like you're suggesting roughly $3.55 billion a quarter in revenues. And I guess, is that math kind of in the ballpark of what you're thinking? And then, more importantly, how are you thinking about gross margin trajectory as we go through the year on the changing mix?

我想，這是一個包含兩個部分的問題。根據您按細分市場給出的整體指導，您似乎建議每季營收約 35.5 億美元。我想，這個數學結果和你想像的差不多吧？更重要的是，隨著產品組合的變化，您如何看待今年毛利率的趨勢？

Thanks, C.J. Can I get you to repeat your first question? I didn't quite understand where you're going. The second part of the question is, as we look sequentially into Q2, you see the gross margin guide. Off of those levels into the back half of our fiscal year, we would expect to see incremental improvement into Q3, and then step up again into Q4. But I apologize, I didn't catch the first part of your question.

謝謝，C.J.。請您再說一次您的第一個問題好嗎？我不太明白你要去哪裡。問題的第二部分是，當我們按順序查看第二季時，你會看到毛利率指引。從目前的水平進入本財年的後半段，我們預計第三季將逐步改善，然後在第四季再次提升。但我很抱歉，我沒聽清楚你問題的第一部分。

It was just adding up the different segments guide. And is it fair to say that roughly $3.55 billion is kind of what you're seeing, on average, on a quarterly basis, for revenues through the calendar year?

這只是把不同部分的指南加起來而已。那麼，以季度計算，全年平均收入約為 35.5 億美元，這種說法是否合理？

Yes. So I don't think, on this call, we'll be guiding for the full year. But what we do see into Q2 is $3.48 billion for the overall company revenue, plus or minus $150 million.

是的。所以我認為，在這次電話會議上，我們不會給出全年的指導。但我們預計第二季公司總營收將達到 34.8 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元。

Our next question is from Atif Malik from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿提夫‧馬利克。

A 2-part question for me as well. First, Gary, can you talk about what should we expect display mix between LCD and OLED this year? And then, is there any change to your view on the capital intensity of OLED TVs into next year as some of the LCD makers are converting their LCD lines to quantum dot and other flavors of OLED? And then I have a follow-up for that.

對我來說，這也是一個包含兩個部分的問題。首先，Gary，可以談談今年LCD和OLED顯示器的組合趨勢嗎？那麼，隨著一些液晶電視製造商將液晶電視生產線改造為量子點和其他類型的OLED電視，您對明年OLED電視的資本密集度有何看法？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Okay. Thanks for the questions. Let me give you some overall color on the display business, and hopefully, I'll cover the 2 questions that you have. In the 6 years through 2018, we were able to grow the display business at a compounded annual growth rate of around 25% to $2.5 billion last year. In '19, we signaled incremental weakness on the last call, and the market has continued to weaken since that call. We now believe that the market is down around 1/3 from 2018's record levels, with second quarter -- our second quarter to be significantly lower than our projected average run rate for 2019 to 2020. Relative to the mix on -- what we have as the biggest incremental change since the last call is weakness in TV, delays in TV investments. It's still compelling for customers to go to Gen 10.5 panels because you can produce 8 65-inch TVs versus 3 on Gen 8.5, so it's strategically important for them to go and make that transition, but the timing of the investments are being pushed out. And then going into 2020, we see small improvement in 2020, and we definitely like the longer-term technology trends and opportunities to grow the business. So hopefully, that gives you some indication around mix. The biggest difference from our last call is in the TV market.

好的。謝謝大家的提問。讓我為您大致介紹一下展示行業的情況，希望能夠解答您提出的兩個問題。在截至 2018 年的 6 年裡，我們的顯示器業務實現了約 25% 的複合年增長率，去年達到 25 億美元。2019 年，我們在上次電話會議中發出市場走弱的訊號，而自那以後，市場持續走弱。我們現在認為，市場已從 2018 年的歷史高點下跌了約三分之一，第二季——我們預測的第二季將遠低於 2019 年至 2020 年的平均運行速度。相對於投資組合而言——自上次電話會議以來最大的變化是電視行業的疲軟以及電視投資的延遲。對於消費者來說，升級到第 10.5 代面板仍然很有吸引力，因為用第 10.5 代面板可以生產 8 台 65 英寸電視，而第 8.5 代面板只能生產 3 台，所以從戰略角度來看，對他們來說進行這種過渡非常重要，但投資的時間卻被推遲了。進入 2020 年，我們看到 2020 年略有改善，我們非常看好長期技術趨勢和業務成長機會。希望這能給你一些關於混合比例的參考。與我們上次的預測相比，最大的不同之處在於電視市場。

Our next question is from Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, you talked about you EUV headwinds and the impact it's had on your market share in 2018, and your expectations for 2019. Should we be concerned that it could remain a headwind into 2020 and beyond? Or is it sort of the initial ramp of EUV that's causing some of these issues for you?

Gary，你談到了 EUV 面臨的逆風以及它對你 2018 年市佔率的影響，以及你對 2019 年的預期。我們是否應該擔心這種情況會持續到 2020 年及以後，成為不利因素？或者說，是 EUV 光刻機初始升溫階段的問題導致了您遇到的這些問題？

Yes, I think if you look at the overall market share, third-party data is going to come out in a little over a month. We'll all see the numbers, including our share. One thing that we'll see is that in the 6 years going into 2017, we were the only major supplier to be up or flat for 6 consecutive years. And certainly, what we've said in '18 is that our share will be down. Demand softened in the back half of the year, we saw a pushout to NAND reuse in foundry. And overall, spending mix shifted towards litho and areas we don't compete. What you will see in about a month is gains in areas like implant, epi, etch, gaining momentum in packaging. And also, in our process control business, I'm happy about the progress there, we had a record year. Very strong growth in our e-beam technologies. We may end up being #1 in e-beam for the first time ever, and very well positioned with the additional adoptions of new products in '19. In '18 and '19, logic customers are buying EUV systems, and those systems have very long lead times. They're buying the EUV tools years before they go into high-volume manufacturing. We look at that as a positive indicator in the adoption of future nodes. But certainly, right now, in '18 in '19, it's definitely a headwind. And as we go forward, as NAND spending resumes, that's more material spending versus litho spending, that's certainly good for us. The trailing nodes are also not litho dependent, so that's also going to be good going forward. And then another factor in '19 that's more favorable setup for us, we have balanced share in foundry, logic and memory. So in a year where DRAM and NAND are much weaker, the relative setup for us is better in 2019. And then, what we've talked about is over the longer term, we see a very different picture emerging. It's clear the industry needs a new playbook that goes beyond 2D scaling, and I deeply believe Applied is in the best position to enable the playbook. I meet all the time with customers, the leaders of R&D for our top customers on a monthly basis, and this is a big focus for all of those customers. We've talked about 5 drivers of power, performance, area and cost as 2D scaling slows, and all of those are dependent on breakthroughs in materials engineering. So I would say, longer term, that creates a great opportunity for us. Dan talked about in his prepared remarks, new memory technology for AI that's coming later this year. I talked about 1,000x improvement in leakage current that improves power efficiency. Those are just early examples of the new playbook, extensive playbook that we've developed. And then, we've also talked about speeding up the new playbook by opening the META Center and figuring out how to integrate all this together so customers can move it into their fabs. Now I definitely believe the right vision for the industry is materials to systems 10x faster, driving this new playbook. There's never been a time where it's more important, so that's the playbook on how we're going to move the needle for the industry and for Applied.

是的，我認為從整體市場份額來看，第三方數據將在一個多月後發布。我們都會看到這些數字，包括我們自己的數字。我們可以看到，在進入 2017 年的 6 年裡，我們是唯一連續 6 年保持成長或持平的主要供應商。當然，我們在 2018 年就說過，我們的份額將會下降。下半年需求疲軟，我們看到晶圓代工廠開始轉向 NAND 快閃記憶體的再利用。總體而言，支出結構轉向了膠印和我們不競爭的領域。大約一個月後，您將會看到植入物、外延、蝕刻等領域取得進展，包裝領域也將獲得發展動能。另外，在我們的流程控制業務方面，我對所取得的進展感到滿意，我們取得了創紀錄的一年。我們的電子束技術發展勢頭強勁。我們有可能首次成為電子束領域的第一名，隨著 2019 年新產品的進一步採用，我們將處於非常有利的地位。2018 年和 2019 年，邏輯電路客戶正在購買 EUV 系統，而這些系統的交貨週期非常長。他們早在大規模生產之前幾年就開始購買 EUV 設備。我們認為這是未來節點普及的正面訊號。但可以肯定的是，就目前而言，在 2018 年和 2019 年，這絕對是一個不利因素。隨著 NAND 支出的恢復，材料支出相對於光刻支出而言更多，這對我們來說當然是好事。後續節點也不依賴光刻技術，所以這對未來的發展也是好事。2019 年的另一個對我們更有利的因素是，我們在晶圓代工、邏輯和記憶體領域擁有均衡的市場份額。因此，在 DRAM 和 NAND 效能大幅下降的 2019 年，我們的相對配置更好。然後，正如我們所討論的，從長遠來看，我們會看到一幅截然不同的景象。很明顯，業界需要一套超越二維擴展的新策略，而我深信應用材料公司最有能力實現這項策略。我經常與客戶會面，每月都會與我們頂級客戶的研發負責人會面，而這正是所有這些客戶都非常關注的重點。我們已經討論了隨著二維尺寸縮小速度放緩，功率、性能、面積和成本這 5 個驅動因素，而所有這些都取決於材料工程的突破。所以從長遠來看，我認為這對我們來說是一個絕佳的機會。丹在事先準備好的發言稿中談到了今年稍後即將推出的用於人工智慧的新型記憶體技術。我談到了漏電流降低 1000 倍，從而提高了電源效率。這些只是我們制定的新策略手冊（一套內容豐富的策略手冊）的早期範例。此外，我們還討論瞭如何透過開放 META 中心來加快新方案的實施，並弄清楚如何將所有這些整合在一起，以便客戶可以將其轉移到他們的晶圓廠中。現在我堅信，推動產業發展的正確願景是將材料轉化為系統的速度提高 10 倍，從而推動這一新的發展方向。現在比以往任何時候都更需要這樣做，所以這就是我們將如何推動產業和應用科技公司取得進展的策略。

Our next question is from John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Gary, as always, I appreciate all the details you give in your prepared comments. One of the things you mentioned is just the expectation that memory will be down significantly this year in calendar year '19, which really shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. But I was wondering if you can just help us understand how your views differ between NAND and DRAM CapEx for this year? And whether or not you see either recovering in the back half of the calendar year? And I guess, importantly, can you talk a little bit about what happens to your SAM in NAND as the industry transitions from 64 to 96 layers?

Gary，像往常一樣，我很欣賞你在準備好的評論中提供的所有細節。你提到的其中一點是，預計 2019 年（日曆年）記憶體使用量將大幅下降，這其實並不令人意外。但我很想知道您能否幫我們了解一下您對今年NAND快閃記憶體和DRAM快閃資本支出的看法有何不同？你認為這兩者在下半年是否會復甦？我想，更重要的是，您能否談談隨著行業從 64 層過渡到 96 層，NAND 中的 SAM 會發生什麼變化？

So thanks for the question. Let me take first the market opportunity for us. There's no question, as customers increase the number of layers, it's all about materials intensity, and so that creates a tremendous opportunity for us. We grew market share in memory a significant amount over the last 5 years. A lot of the improvements around new materials, new technologies that drive that scaling are really great opportunities for Applied. We are increasing our etch share also in memory. So that's also a very good setup for us. So certainly, as the scalings goes forward, we expect that we're going to continue to grow our share, as we've done over the last several years. And then, maybe, Dan, you can answer the question about DRAM versus NAND?

謝謝你的提問。首先讓我談談我們面臨的市場機會。毫無疑問，隨著客戶增加層數，一切都取決於材料的強度，這為我們創造了巨大的機會。過去五年，我們在記憶體領域的市佔率大幅成長。許多圍繞著新材料和新技術的改進，推動了規模化發展，這對應用材料公司來說都是非常好的機會。我們在記憶體領域的蝕刻份額也在不斷增加。所以這對我們來說也是一個非常好的安排。因此，隨著規模的擴大，我們預計我們將繼續擴大市場份額，就像過去幾年我們所做的那樣。那麼，丹，或許你可以回答一下關於DRAM和NAND的問題？

Sure. Thanks, Gary. And John, to get to how 2019 is profiling in the memory space, let me start with what we saw in 2018, and use that as a jumping-off point to make some comparative statements about how we see the market profiling in 2019. We're probably not going to be point-specific on how 2018 ended up because Gartner is going to come out in a month or 2 with those estimates, but we definitely saw 2018 up over '17, definitely has a 5 handle on it. And as you indicated, it was a strong memory growth year. We think, as 2018 settled, 60% of the spend in the market was memory-related, 40% -- about 40% was foundry/logic-related. Within memory, we saw the NAND, DRAM spend very balanced. As we look forward into 2019, in Gary's prepared comments, he said year-over-year, WFE in '19 will be down. Memory will be down by a good amount, we expect foundry/logic to be flat to up a little bit. So as 2019 shakes out, we expect foundry/logic to be greater than memory. Overall, the market will be down mid- to high-teens. And as we look at the market between NAND and DRAM, we see it profiling very similar to '18 and being balanced. In terms of the second half, and I come back in the market, I think we want to set expectations for a slow, gradual recovery off of these levels. While we're having conversations with customers and we see positive lead indicators, we think it's prudent in this environment to set those expectations for a slow, gradual recovery. As we look into the back half of the year, inventory levels come down faster than we expect, utilizations come up and price stability, those would all create the environmentals for a more robust second half. And if that scenario materializes, then we would benefit significantly from that environment. And then I wanted to come back to C.J.'s original question because, now, I think I understand a bit of what he was asking for. And I apologize, C.J. Let me help shape the revenues this year to, I think, get at the question you were asking. Off of the levels we guided in Q2, we see our semi systems group flattish on a quarterly basis into the back part of the year. The run rate of our display business in Q2 will be below the annual average, so we would see -- expect to see that growing into the back part of the year, and then AGS will have its normal seasonal profile and be higher into Q3 and Q4. So hopefully, that helps giving you a bit of the profile and color. And then the gross margin part of your question, again, we expected that to incrementally step up in Q3, and again into Q4.

當然。謝謝你，加里。約翰，為了了解 2019 年記憶體領域的發展趨勢，讓我先回顧一下 2018 年的情況，並以此為出發點，對 2019 年的市場發展趨勢做一些比較性的分析。我們可能不會具體說明 2018 年的最終結果，因為 Gartner 將在一兩個月內發布相關預測，但我們肯定看到 2018 年比 2017 年有所增長，絕對有 5 個增長點。正如你所指出的，這是記憶力快速成長的一年。我們認為，到 2018 年底，市場上 60% 的支出與記憶體相關，40%——大約 40% 與代工/邏輯相關。在記憶體方面，我們看到 NAND 和 DRAM 的支出非常平衡。展望 2019 年，Gary 在事先準備好的評論中表示，2019 年 WFE 將年減。記憶體成本將大幅下降，我們預計代工/邏輯成本將持平或略有成長。因此，隨著 2019 年的結束，我們預期晶圓代工/邏輯電路的規模將大於記憶體。整體而言，市場將下跌十幾到二十幾個百分點。當我們審視 NAND 和 DRAM 之間的市場時，我們發現它與 2018 年的情況非常相似，並且保持平衡。就下半年而言，當我重返市場時，我認為我們希望市場預期會從目前的水平緩慢、逐步復甦。雖然我們正在與客戶進行溝通，並且看到了積極的領先指標，但我們認為在這種環境下，謹慎的做法是設定緩慢、逐步復甦的預期。展望下半年，庫存水準下降速度超出預期，產能利用率上升，價格趨於穩定，這些都將為下半年的強勁成長創造有利環境。如果這種情況成為現實，那麼我們將從這種環境中受益匪淺。然後我想回到 C.J. 最初的問題，因為現在，我想我稍微理解了他想問的是什麼。我很抱歉，C.J.。讓我來解釋一下今年的收入狀況，我想這應該可以回答你提出的問題。根據我們在第二季度給出的預期水平，我們預計半導體系統集團在今年下半年將保持季度穩定。第二季我們的顯示器業務運作率將低於年平均水平，因此我們預計該業務將在今年下半年成長，然後 AGS 將呈現正常的季節性特徵，並在第三季和第四季達到更高的水平。希望這能幫助你對它的外形和特徵有所了解。至於您問題中的毛利率部分，我們預計第三季毛利率會逐步提高，第四季也會繼續提高。

Our next question is from Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Can you just help us understand how you're thinking about the OpEx trajectory beyond Q2, if you do start to see gradual recovery, as you described it? And then, on the other hand, if revenues were to take another step down, let's say, beyond Q2, how much could the team flex their OpEx?

如果您如您所描述的那樣開始看到逐步復甦，能否幫助我們了解您對第二季之後的營運支出軌跡有何看法？另一方面，如果收入進一步下降，比如說，在第二季之後，團隊可以在營運支出方面做出多大的調整呢？

So OpEx is definitely a controllable spend line. The philosophy we have at the company is we are going to be an inflection-focused growth company, we're going to grow organically and invest in products and capabilities that will help drive that growth going forward. We do it in the context of the environment we operate in, we will be disciplined operators and instill spend discipline throughout the company. As you take a look at the guide into Q2, what I would expect, if you take a step back and think about where we were a quarter or 2 ago, we had said we spent about $3 billion on OpEx in 2018, we would expect that to grow by about $200 million into '19. We've adjusted those plans in light of the current environment we're in, and we'll probably bring that down by about $175 million over the course of 2019, off of the original expectations. So up 1%, maybe 1.5% off of the levels we were in 2018. And we think this strikes the right balance given everything we know between near-term discipline that reflects the environment we operate in, and strong pursuit of new technologies, new platforms, new winning products that will preserve shareholder value creation into the infections that we see materializing in the years ahead.

因此，營運支出絕對是一項可控的支出項目。我們公司的理念是，我們將成為一家專注於轉捩點的成長型公司，我們將實現有機成長，並投資於能夠推動未來成長的產品和能力。我們將根據我們所處的環境開展工作，我們將成為紀律嚴明的經營者，並在全公司範圍內貫徹支出紀律。當你查看第二季度的指南時，如果你回顧一下一兩個季度前的情況，我預計，我們在 2018 年的營運支出約為 30 億美元，我們預計到 2019 年，這一數字將增長約 2 億美元。鑑於我們目前所處的環境，我們已經調整了這些計劃，我們可能會在 2019 年將預算減少約 1.75 億美元，比最初的預期要少。所以比 2018 年的水準高出 1%，也許高出 1.5%。我們認為，鑑於我們所了解的一切，這種做法在反映我們所處環境的短期紀律和大力追求新技術、新平台、新制勝產品之間取得了恰當的平衡，從而在未來幾年我們所預見的各種挑戰中保持股東價值的創造。

Our next question is from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自新街研究公司的皮埃爾·費拉古。

I just wanted to come back to the points you made, Gary, about EUV being like a share gainer against you this year, but a leading indicator for you going forward. So how much visibility do you have at this point in time on when EUV gets introduced in mass manufacturing? How's the share, I would say, of AMAT's -- of spending for wafer is evolving? So that's one question. And then, the second question is how much of the benefit you see on the back of EUV is just more of what you do already? And how much is actually new technology you're going to introduce as well, things like cobalt interconnect and others?

我只是想回到你剛才提出的觀點，Gary，關於 EUV 今年像是你們的市佔率成長者，但也是你們未來發展的領先指標。那麼，目前您對EUV何時應用於大規模生產有多大的了解呢？我想說的是，AMAT在晶圓方面的支出份額是如何變動的？這是其中一個問題。那麼，第二個問題是，您認為 EUV 技術帶來的好處有多少只是您現有做法的延伸？那麼，你們究竟會引進多少新技術呢？比如鈷互連技術等等？

So EUV, as I've talked about, you're seeing early adoption in 2018 and 2019. And in '19, you're going to see the first chips being built, so you have pilot production. And when you're adopting a new technology like this, it happens years before you go into high-volume manufacturing. So you see this initial adoption surge in advance of the high-volume manufacturing. And so again, we do see that as a good leading indicator relative to N5, for instance, when that happens. Now one thing also to remember is that EUV will remove legacy etch and depth steps, I mean, that's why customers are adopting EUV because it replaces a number of different etch steps, but those aren't our steps. So at every node, the most important thing for the customers is they have to drive power, performance, area and cost. And it's definitely with power and performance, 2D scaling helps, but even more important is innovation and materials. So if you look at a node like N5, for instance, there are many materials inflections that are being adopted as customers drive improvements in power and performance. We have a number of different new steps there, advanced metal gate materials, epi steps. We have hot and cold implant, going from 500 degrees C to minus 140, new surface treatments. We're increasing our share in critical etch steps and have good momentum in new process control solutions. So that is what will come for us, but what you see right now is this early adoption of EUV as customers prepare for those higher-volume ramps. What I would also say, and I talked about this many times, is I do believe that the industry needs a new playbook. We have stronger and deeper engagements than we've ever had with customers. So that really positions us well. Relative to N5, we're well positioned, we have deep engagements with customers to drive power and performance on N5 and also for future nodes. And just the last thing I would add, when we talk about EUV adoption, the majority of EUV is really in leading-edge technology in logic/foundry. You have half the market that's memory, that's driven by materials. You've got about 25% of the market that's specialty nodes, power devices, image sensors, which also are great opportunities for us. So we see about 75% of the market, really great opportunities. And in the leading-edge foundry and logic, it's really about power and performance, in addition to 2D scaling, and we're in the best position to drive that with our customers going forward.

正如我之前提到的，EUV 技術在 2018 年和 2019 年得到了早期應用。2019 年，你將看到第一批晶片被製造出來，也就是進行試生產。而且，採用像這樣的新技術，往往比大規模生產提早數年。因此，你會看到在大規模生產之前，會出現這種最初的採用激增現象。因此，當這種情況發生時，我們再次將其視為相對於 N5 的一個很好的領先指標。還有一點要記住的是，EUV 將取消傳統的蝕刻和深度步驟，我的意思是，這就是客戶採用 EUV 的原因，因為它取代了許多不同的蝕刻步驟，但這些步驟並不是我們的。因此，對於每個節點而言，客戶最關心的是功率、效能、面積和成本。當然，在功率和性能方面，2D 縮放有所幫助，但更重要的是創新和材料。例如，以 N5 這樣的節點為例，隨著客戶對功率和性能的追求，許多材料特性正在被採用。我們有很多不同的新步驟，先進的金屬閘極材料，外延步驟。我們擁有熱植入和冷植入技術，溫度範圍從 500 攝氏度到零下 140 攝氏度，以及新的表面處理技術。我們在關鍵蝕刻步驟中的份額不斷增加，並且在新製程控制解決方案方面取得了良好的發展勢頭。這就是我們將要面臨的情況，但你現在看到的是 EUV 的早期應用，因為客戶正在為更高的產量爬坡做準備。我還要說一點，而且我也多次談到這一點，那就是我確實認為這個行業需要一套新的策略。我們與客戶的互動比以往任何時候都更加緊密和深入。這確實讓我們處於非常有利的地位。相對於 N5，我們處於有利地位，我們與客戶進行了深入的合作，以推動 N5 以及未來節點的效能和效率提升。最後我想補充一點，當我們談到 EUV 的應用時，EUV 的大部分應用實際上都集中在邏輯/代工領域的尖端技術中。記憶體市場佔比高達一半，而這又是由材料驅動的。你們大約有 25% 的市佔率屬於特種節點、功率元件、影像感測器，這些對我們來說也是很好的機會。所以我們看到大約 75% 的市場都蘊藏著巨大的機會。在尖端晶圓代工和邏輯領域，除了二維縮放之外，真正重要的是功率和性能，而我們處於最佳位置，可以與我們的客戶一起推動這一發展。

Our next question is from Krish Sankar from Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Krish Sankar。

This is Steve calling on behalf of Krish. First one, if I could, Gary, on you semi systems business as it relates to China. Fully appreciate the ongoing U.S.-China trade tension, and also given that there's the one export control on one of your DRAM customers in China, I was wondering if you have seen any spillover effects from those trade tensions and that export control from some of your other customers, whether it's in terms of pushout in any ramp schedules or perhaps even any increased focus or sourcing of tools from local Chinese vendors by your Chinese customers as well?

我是史蒂夫，替克里什打來的。首先，如果可以的話，Gary，我想談談你在中國開展的半導體系統業務。我完全理解目前中美貿易緊張局勢，考慮到您的一位中國DRAM客戶受到出口管制，我想知道您是否看到這些貿易緊張局勢和出口管制對您的其他客戶產生了任何溢出效應，例如推遲產能爬坡計劃，或者您的中國客戶是否更加關注或從中國本地供應商採購工具？

Thanks for the question. So relative to China, from what we see today, it seems like mostly business as usual with our customers in the region. We're very well positioned in China with domestic and multinational customers. We've been in China for 35 years, very deep relationships across semi and display. Just a little bit of color on China. We expect China wafer fab equipment investment to be down year-over-year in '19 versus '18, and we see both domestic and multinational down in China. In China domestic, we see higher spending on foundry/logic versus memory, with foundry/logic focused on trailing nodes for sensors, IoT, those types of devices. Within China domestic spending, we're in a great position, and we expect that we're going to gain share. And then, also, our display business in China will be down in line with our overall global display forecast. So overall, we have a super strong position in China, semi, service, display, great teams, strong relationships, and feel good about how we're positioned going forward.

謝謝你的提問。所以就目前來看，相對於中國而言，我們在該地區的客戶似乎一切照舊。我們在中國擁有非常穩固的地位，客戶涵蓋國內和跨國公司。我們在中國已有35年的歷史，在半導體和顯示器領域建立了非常深厚的合作關係。為中國增添一點色彩。我們預計 2019 年中國晶圓製造設備投資將比 2018 年年減，我們看到中國本土企業和跨國企業的投資都會下降。在中國國內，我們看到晶圓代工/邏輯晶片的支出高於記憶體晶片，晶圓代工/邏輯晶片主要集中在感測器、物聯網等設備的後端節點。在中國國內消費市場，我們處於非常有利的地位，我們預期我們將獲得更大的市場份額。此外，我們在中國的顯示器業務也將與我們的全球顯示器整體預測保持一致，出現下滑。總的來說，我們在中國半導體、服務、顯示器領域擁有非常強大的地位，擁有優秀的團隊和強大的關係，我們對未來的發展前景感到樂觀。

If I could ask a quick follow-up on 200-millimeter equipment demand. I think a number of foundries globally have talked about 8-inch wafer fab initiatives, focused specifically on IoT, automotive opportunities in the future. Is that something that will help demand -- equipment demand later this year? And should we expect to see these benefits on the systems side or the AGS side?

請問能否快速跟進 200 毫米設備的需求狀況？我認為全球許多晶圓代工廠都討論過 8 吋晶圓製造計劃，尤其關注未來物聯網和汽車領域的機會。這是否會對今年稍後的設備需求有所幫助？這些好處應該體現在系統方面還是AGS方面？

Thanks for the questions, Steve. The trailing node geometries, in general, have been profiling very strong for the last couple of years, and 200-millimeter equipment demand is also the same. We continue to expect a healthy outlook for those mature nodes going forward. And the 200-millimeter equipment demand remains strong. Like you said, IoT sensors are proliferating and driving significant demand at those mature nodes. I'd also say that there are new AI chip architectures that are being designed at the 28-nanometer node, and they're going to deliver high-performance. But to get the same transistor count out into the market as the 7-nanometer node, you need 8x the wafers at 28 nanometers. And so the fact that we're getting new designs of highly-capable silicon at nodes like 28 nanometers, I think, bodes well for the trailing node market. 200 millimeter is experiencing the same type of dynamic and continues to be strong. From a financial reporting standpoint, we report our 200-millimeter equipment segment as part of our services AGS reporting segment.

謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。近幾年來，尾部節點幾何形狀的整體發展勢頭非常強勁，200 毫米設備的需求也是如此。我們仍然預期這些成熟節點未來將保持良好的發展前景。200毫米設備的需求依然強勁。正如你所說，物聯網感測器正在迅速普及，並在這些成熟節點上推動了巨大的需求。我還想說，目前正在設計採用 28 奈米製程節點的新型 AI 晶片架構，它們將提供高性能。但要想在 28 奈米製程下生產出與 7 奈米製程相同數量的電晶體產品，所需的晶圓數量是 7 奈米製程的 8 倍。因此，我們能夠獲得像 28 奈米這樣的高精度矽晶片的新設計，我認為這對後續節點市場來說是個好兆頭。200毫米口徑也呈現出同樣的動態，並且持續保持強勁勢頭。從財務報告的角度來看，我們將 200 毫米設備業務板塊作為 AGS 服務報告板塊的一部分進行報告。

Our next question is from Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的Timothy Arcuri。

I had 2 questions. Dan, I guess, the first one is, I'm looking at the gross margin guidance, 43.5%, it's about the same as you were doing on like $1 billion in lower revenue sort of in mid-2016. So my first question is, I'm just kind of wondering why gross margin gains are not really dropping through over that period? Is that because a lot of the incremental revenues is coming on the services side? And then, I had a follow-up.

我有兩個問題。丹，我想，第一個問題是，我看了看毛利率預期，43.5%，這和你在 2016 年年中營收較低的情況下，10 億美元的毛利率差不多。所以我的第一個問題是，我只是想知道為什麼毛利率成長在這段時間內並沒有真正下降？這是因為新增收入大多來自服務方面嗎？然後，我還有後續問題。

Thanks, Tim. As you -- as we've talked about historically, gross margin is going to be a function of a number of factors. There's an aggregate revenue component, there's mix between our segments, and then product mix within segments as well as overall activity levels in the factory, and they will vary from quarter-to-quarter. As we take a look at our guide into Q2 when we compare it to peak quarter about a year ago, we're profiling favorably relative to our peers in the industry. And so the company, we think, is doing a good job in a difficult environment given the parameters we talked about that influence gross margin, and we're profiling, I think, favorably relative to peers in the industry, given that peak comparison. And you had a follow-up question, Tim?

謝謝你，提姆。正如你——正如我們過去討論過的，毛利率取決於許多因素。收入組成包括總收入、各業務板塊之間的組合、各業務板塊內的產品組合以及工廠的整體活動水平，這些因素都會因季度而異。當我們回顧第二季度的業績指引，並將其與大約一年前的高峰季度進行比較時，我們發現，相對於業內同行，我們的業績表現良好。因此，我們認為，考慮到我們討論過的影響毛利率的各項因素，該公司在如此艱難的環境下表現良好，而且考慮到峰值比較，我認為，相對於業內同行，我們的業績表現也相當不錯。提姆，你還有後續問題嗎？

I did. Yes, I'm just trying to understand the change in the model. I think you said maybe 6-or-so months ago, before WFE fell off, I think the feeling was that you would do roughly $3.25 annualized at $40 billion WFE. We're sort of even a little bit above that right now, we're probably at $41 billion or $42 billion. But even if you say we're at $40 billion, you're sort of, based on the guidance, you're roughly $2.65 a year annualized, so that's roughly 20% below where you thought. So pretty big number. I'm just wondering sort of what's changed.

我做了。是的，我只是想了解模型的變化。我想你大概在六個月前，也就是WFE下跌之前就說過，當時的預期是，在WFE達到400億美元的情況下，你的年化報酬率大約是3.25美元。我們現在甚至略高於這個數字，大概在 410 億美元或 420 億美元左右。但即使你說我們達到了 400 億美元，根據指導意見，你每年大約只有 2.65 美元，所以這比你預想的低了大約 20%。所以是個相當大的數字。我只是想知道究竟發生了什麼變化。

Sure. So here's what I would share with you and what we see. In the November quarter, we noted that 2019 was going to shape up a lot like 2017, and that would give us an earnings per share a bit above $3.25. And since then, we've seen pre-announcements by end customers. One company in the smartphone space, another one in the GPU, and cryptocurrency continues to be weak. So we've taken customer spending down in semi and display. And if you layer in what Gary said, down mid- to high teens on a year-over-year basis, clearly, WFE spend is now below the levels we saw in 2017. So my expectation is, is that earnings, not surprisingly, will be lower than they were in 2017. But I do like the way the customers are taking proactive steps to get supply in balance with demand, work down inventories in both memory and the logic/foundry space, so I see the setup into 2020 as being quite good.

當然。所以，我想和大家分享一下我們所看到的。在 11 月的季度報告中，我們指出 2019 年的情況將與 2017 年非常相似，這將使我們的每股收益略高於 3.25 美元。從那時起，我們就看到了終端客戶的預先公告。一家智慧型手機公司，一家GPU公司，以及加密貨幣市場，依然疲軟。因此，我們降低了客戶在半成品和展示品方面的支出。如果再加上 Gary 所說的，同比下降十幾到二十幾個百分點，顯然，WFE 支出現在低於我們在 2017 年看到的水平。因此，我的預期是，不出所料，收益將低於 2017 年的水準。但我很欣賞客戶們積極採取措施來平衡供需，減少記憶體和邏輯/代工領域的庫存，所以我認為 2020 年的情況相當不錯。

Our next question is from Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。

A clarification and a question. On the clarification, Dan, I was hoping you could give us some more color around the subscription versus transactional mix in AGS. So let us predict how sensitive that business is to WFE versus your increasing base of deployed tools. And then, the question is, if I look at WFE over a longer period of time, it was in the low to mid-30s for many years, and then, in '17 and '18, it jumped well above that trend to $50 billion-plus. And now, this year, they are in the low-$40s billion. What I'm trying to understand is, what is the right baseline level. That when we have, let's say, 2020 as a "normal year," do we grow off of the low-$40s billion that we are at right now, or do we grow off of the $50s billion. How do you conceptually think about modeling WFE growth over the next 3 to 5 years?

一個澄清和一個問題。Dan，關於澄清，我希望你能為我們詳細介紹AGS中的訂閱與交易組合。那麼，讓我們預測一下，相對於您不斷成長的部署工具基礎，該業務對 WFE 的敏感度如何。那麼，問題是，如果我從更長的時間跨度來看 WFE，它多年來一直徘徊在 30 億美元左右，然後在 2017 年和 2018 年，它遠遠超過了這一趨勢，達到了 500 億美元以上。而今年，它們的規模已經達到了 400 億美元出頭。我想了解的是，什麼是合適的基準水平。如果我們將 2020 年視為“正常年份”，那麼我們是應該在目前 400 億美元左右的增長基礎上繼續增長，還是應該在 500 億美元的基礎上繼續增長？您如何從概念上考慮建立未來 3 到 5 年 WFE 成長的模型？

Thanks for the question. I'll start with the subscription question, and then turn it over to Dan. So overall, our service business has grown about 15% compounded annual growth rate over the last 4 years. In 2018, we grew over 20%. What I said in the prepared remarks is we see high single-digit growth in 2019 in a soft market. And part of what helps us is exactly what you talked about, is this subscription revenue. We have a higher percentage, over half of our business is subscription revenue with long-term agreements. And so when you're in a soft market, those long-term agreements versus just selling parts makes a very, very big difference. That's been a conscious strategy on our part to create value for our customers, drive more of these comprehensive service agreements. If you look at 2018, the comprehensive service agreements grew 3x faster than the rate of new shipments. So we have -- we really changed that strategy around 5 years ago relative to driving more long-term agreements, subscription-type revenue. And even in 2018, it's still growing at a very high rate. It really comes back to creating value for customers, optimizing output, yield, cost. We've put a tremendous focus there. And again, we're getting a lot of traction. So it's good for us, and also definitely good for our customers. And then, I'll have -- turn it over to Dan for the next question.

謝謝你的提問。我先回答訂閱問題，然後把這個問題交給丹。整體而言，過去 4 年我們的服務業務複合年增長率約為 15%。2018年，我們的成長率超過20%。我在事先準備好的發言稿中提到，我們預期在疲軟的市場環境下，2019 年將實現高個位數成長。而對我們有幫助的部分原因，正如你剛才所說，就是訂閱收入。我們的收入佔比更高，超過一半的業務收入來自長期訂閱協議。因此，在市場疲軟的情況下，簽訂長期協議與僅僅銷售零件相比，會產生非常非常大的影響。這是我們有意為之的策略，旨在為客戶創造價值，推動更多此類綜合服務協議的簽訂。如果回顧 2018 年，綜合服務協議的成長速度是新出貨量成長速度的 3 倍。所以，大約 5 年前，我們真正改變了策略，轉向推動更多長期協議和訂閱類型的收入。即使到了 2018 年，它仍然保持著非常高的成長速度。歸根究底，就是要為客戶創造價值，優化產量、效益和成本。我們在這方面投入了大量精力。我們再次獲得了很大的支持。所以這對我們來說是好事，對我們的客戶來說也絕對是好事。接下來，我將把問題交給丹。

Yes. And Vivek, on the second part of your question. I think there's a couple of ways to look at it. If we take a longer-term perspective around WFE, and we look at it as a percentage of overall semiconductor revenue, and you go back a couple decades to 2000, WFE as a percentage of semiconductor revenues was about 17%. This was a bit of a peak because our customers were investing in both 200- and 300-millimeter systems. And then, over the course of the next decade, as 300-millimeter cut in, all the factory automation systems and the way our customers consolidated and became more efficient in operating their footprint of capacity, you saw it come down to about 9% in 2013. Now that all the efficiency gains from 300-millimeter have worked their way through the system, 450 millimeters is not on the roadmap, in the last few years since 2013, that WFE intensity has climbed to 11%, 12%. In an environment characterized like we're in now, where we see elevated inventory levels on both the foundry/logic side as well as the memory side, and our customers managing, in a very disciplined way, supply to meet end-market demand, we see those inventories come down. And so I think it's a good setup for 2020. But I don't think what happens this year forms the baseline because we do think what's happening this year is shipping below true end-market demand as these inventories come down.

是的。維韋克，關於你問題的第二部分。我認為可以從幾個角度來看這個問題。如果我們從更長遠的角度來看 WFE，並將其視為半導體總收入的百分比，那麼回顧 2000 年，WFE 佔半導體收入的百分比約為 17%。這是一個高峰期，因為我們的客戶同時投資了 200 毫米和 300 毫米的系統。然後，在接下來的十年裡，隨著 300 毫米切割技術的普及，以及所有工廠自動化系統的發展，還有客戶整合產能並提高營運效率的方式，到 2013 年，這一比例下降到了大約 9%。現在，300 毫米的效率提升已經透過整個系統實現，450 毫米不在發展規劃之內。自 2013 年以來的最近幾年，WFE 強度已攀升至 11%、12%。在目前這種環境下，無論是代工/邏輯晶片方面還是記憶體方面，庫存水平都較高，而我們的客戶則以非常嚴謹的方式管理供應，以滿足終端市場需求，因此我們看到這些庫存下降了。所以我認為這對2020年來說是一個很好的安排。但我認為今年的情況不能作為基準，因為我們認為，隨著庫存下降，今年的出貨量低於真正的終端市場需求。

Our next question is from Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wanted to follow up on the comment that you made about China spending being down and being a little bit foundry-oriented. There still seems to be quite a bit of desire to build a sovereign memory business, and we've seen a number of players talk about spending large amount of money. What do you think it has to -- it's going to take to sort of kickstart that effort? And is it a function of the technology being production ready? Is it a function of the market environment, greenroom space? Just what's the gating factor behind that business starting to grow?

我想就您之前提到的中國支出下降以及略微偏向代工廠生產的評論做個補充說明。似乎仍有相當多的意願去建立自主儲存業務，我們也看到許多參與者談到要投入大量資金。你認為需要做些什麼才能啟動這項工作？這是否與該技術是否已準備好投入生產有關？這是否與市場環境和溫室空間有關？究竟是什麼因素阻礙了這項業務的成長？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Memory technology, I think you can see in terms of the 3D NAND ramp, is very difficult. Companies that have decades of experience, tremendous technology, deep experienced talent, I mean, those customers had difficulty transitioning from 2D to 3D NAND. And certainly, DRAM scaling is extremely difficult right now. So it just takes a lot of time to build that type of technology base. And you also need experienced talent across many, many different types of skill sets. So what we've said before in terms of China is that China will definitely continue to incrementally spend, but it's going to be years before you see -- I mean, if you look at cost per bit, any type of competitiveness on the leading edge is going to take a lot of time to develop the technology, to develop the talent. And in the meantime, again, in the foundry/logic area, there is a tremendous growth in sensors, IoT, trailing-edge technologies, and we see rational spending there, ramping in China. And again, that's more of the spending in 2019. So again, we see increases, but as we've said before, we don't see a hockey stick. It's going to take many years to build the talent and technology.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我認為，從 3D NAND 斜坡技術可以看出，儲存技術非常複雜。擁有數十年經驗、強大技術、經驗豐富的專業人才的公司，我的意思是，這些客戶在從 2D NAND 過渡到 3D NAND 時遇到了困難。當然，目前DRAM的擴充性確實非常困難。所以，建立這種技術基礎需要很長一段時間。而且，你還需要具備多種不同技能的經驗豐富的專業人才。所以，我們之前就中國的情況說過，中國肯定會繼續逐步增加投入，但要看到——我的意思是，如果你看每比特成本，任何類型的領先競爭力都需要很長時間來發展技術和培養人才。同時，在晶圓代工/邏輯領域，感測器、物聯網、尖端技術等都出現了巨大的成長，我們看到中國在這些領域的合理支出正在加速成長。而且，這更多是 2019 年的支出。所以，我們看到成長，但正如我們之前所說，我們沒有看到爆炸性成長。培養人才和技術需要很多年時間。

Operator, I think we have time for 2 more questions.

接線員，我想我們還有時間再問兩個問題。

Our next question is from Patrick Ho from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Patrick Ho。

Gary, maybe just following up some of the commentary you've made about EUV on this conference call, particularly for the leading-edge foundry and the increasing litho intensity in the near term. At the same time, as these leading-edge nodes shrink to 10, 7 and 5 nanometers, we're seeing new materials implementation, stuff like cobalt for interconnects and other new processes being brought on board. Can you discuss a little more specifically Applied Materials' capital intensity for its process segments that even with EUV, you'll continue to see increases for your business segments on a going-forward basis for leading-edge logic and foundry?

Gary，也許我想就你在這次電話會議上對 EUV 發表的一些評論做個補充，特別是對於領先的代工廠和近期不斷增加的光刻強度而言。同時，隨著這些前緣節點縮小到 10 奈米、7 奈米和 5 奈米，我們看到了新材料的應用，例如用於互連的鈷以及其他新製程的引入。能否更具體地談談應用材料公司製程部門的資本密集度？即使採用 EUV 技術，您能否預期貴公司在尖端邏輯和代工業務方面的資本密集度在未來仍將繼續成長？

Thanks, Patrick. As I said earlier on N5, really, for all the customers, every node, they're driving power, performance, area and cost. 2D scaling is one of the ways that they're driving those improvements. And certainly, shrinking is part of that. Pattern placement, techniques to place patterns in the right location are also part of that, where we've said before, we expect our patterning revenue to grow. We've grown significantly over the last several years. We do still see, if you look across the whole industry, our patterning share to continue to grow for Applied Materials. And then, for power and performance, some of the things I talked about earlier in N5, gate materials, epi, implant, surface treatment technologies. I'll tell you, the interfaces are getting very, very difficult. And so when you look at how you improve power and performance, you're talking about a few items making a very big difference. In some cases, you take wafers out of one process chamber, immediately, in a matter of seconds or minutes, you have moisture being absorbed into the films, oxidizing, that impacts device performance. So more of these integrated material solutions will be the path in terms of how people drive scaling going forward. The 1,000x leakage-of-current example I've given is, I think, a prime example of a huge improvement in power and performance, and that requires a combination of technologies on a platform where Applied has a significant advantage. So those are the areas we're focused on. We have many deep conversations with a number of different companies. I meet on a regular basis with all of the R&D leaders, and really, that's the focus for us and creates a big opportunity.

謝謝你，派崔克。正如我之前在 N5 上所說，實際上，對於所有客戶而言，每個節點，他們都在驅動功率、效能、面積和成本。2D縮放是他們推動這些改進的方式之一。當然，萎縮也是其中的一部分。圖案放置、將圖案放置在正確位置的技術也是其中的一部分，正如我們之前所說，我們預期圖案製作收入將會成長。過去幾年，我們取得了顯著的成長。從整個產業來看，我們仍然可以看到應用材料公司在圖案設計領域的份額將繼續成長。然後，為了功率和性能，我之前在 N5 中談到的一些內容，例如閘極材料、外延、注入、表面處理技術。我跟你說，這些介面越來越難用了。因此，當你研究如何提高功率和性能時，你會發現只有少數幾個因素會產生非常大的影響。在某些情況下，將晶圓從一個製程腔室取出後，幾秒鐘或幾分鐘內，水分就會被薄膜吸收並氧化，從而影響裝置性能。因此，未來人們推動規模化發展的方向將是更多地採用這類整合材料解決方案。我認為，我舉的 1000 倍漏電流的例子，是功率和性能大幅提升的一個典型例子，而這需要多種技術的組合，而 Applied 在該平台上具有顯著優勢。所以，這些就是我們關注的領域。我們與多家公司進行了深入的對話。我定期與所有研發負責人會面，這確實是我們的工作重點，也創造了巨大的機會。

Our last question is from Quinn Bolton from Needham & Company.

最後一個問題來自 Needham & Company 公司的 Quinn Bolton。

Gary, I just wanted to follow up on the market share comments. Obviously, the mix shift towards EUV hurt supply, but if you look at the segments in which you compete today, what are your expectations for share gains? Are you flat to still gaining share in those segments? And then a sort of second question is just, you talked about it in the script, you're not yet ready to call the bottom. Just curious, what signs are you looking for before you're ready to call the bottom on the semiconductor side?

Gary，我只是想就市場佔有率的問題做個後續說明。顯然，EUV製程的轉型對供應造成了衝擊，但如果你看看你目前所處的競爭領域，你對市場佔有率的成長有何預期？您在這些細分市場中的份額是持平還是仍在成長？然後第二個問題就是，你在劇本裡談到了，你還沒準備好宣布底部。我很好奇，在判斷半導體產業觸底之前，你會注意哪些跡象？

Yes. On the semiconductor cycle and calling the bottom, I think what we're looking to in the back part of the year -- we've got conversations, deep conversations ongoing with customers. And while we like some of the positive lead indicators we're seeing, we still see inventory at an elevated level but coming down. And if we were to see that come down faster than we're currently contemplating, utilizations rising, ASP stability, I think those would be all good lead indicators that would look into the back half of 2019 and change the trend lines that we see. And again, if that is the scenario that materializes, we will benefit greatly in that environment.

是的。關於半導體週期和預測底部，我認為我們今年下半年關注的是——我們正在與客戶進行深入的對話。雖然我們對目前看到的一些積極的領先指標感到滿意，但我們仍然看到庫存水平較高，但正在下降。如果我們看到價格下降的速度比我們目前預期的要快，利用率上升，平均售價穩定，我認為這些都是很好的領先指標，可以展望 2019 年下半年，並改變我們看到的趨勢線。再次強調，如果這種情況真的發生，我們將在這種環境下受益匪淺。

I think, on the market share question, certainly, we're doing well in the areas we're competing, but we're driving to compete in more areas. There are certain areas where there are big TAM expansion opportunities, those are areas that we're very focused on. And we've talked many times about inflection-focused innovation. There's no question, the playbook is changing going forward, it's not all about 2D scaling. So whether it's in advanced logic, specialty nodes like power devices, CMOS, image sensors or scaling new memory technologies, all of those areas are areas that we're very focused on. They're all dependent on materials innovation, and we're driving major investments in those new products and also new structures that enable that new playbook. So that's a big focus for us, and we see it as a great opportunity.

我認為，就市場佔有率問題而言，我們目前在競爭領域確實做得很好，但我們正在努力拓展到更多領域參與競爭。在某些領域，市場總規模（TAM）有很大的擴張機會，這些領域正是我們重點關注的領域。我們已經多次討論過以轉折點為中心的創新。毫無疑問，未來的發展方向正在改變，不再只是二維縮放。因此，無論是先進邏輯、功率元件、CMOS、影像感測器等專用節點，或是擴展新型儲存技術，所有這些領域都是我們非常關注的領域。它們都依賴材料創新，我們正在大力投資這些新產品以及能夠實現這種新策略的新結構。所以這是我們關注的重點，我們認為這是一個絕佳的機會。

Okay. Thanks, Quinn. Any last thoughts, Dan, before we close it up?

好的。謝謝你，奎因。丹，在結束之前，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Sure, Mike. Thanks. Just a couple of quick thoughts. First, I want you to know that while the environment is challenging, we feel very good about the structural WFE growth that we see in the years ahead. So today, we're going to do the right things that increase the value of the company. We will drive spend discipline throughout the organization while we're still investing. We're going to invest in new products and new capabilities. This is about winning, winning in new inflections that we know are going to play out in the growth years we see coming.

當然可以，麥克。謝謝。幾個簡單的想法。首先，我想讓大家知道，雖然環境充滿挑戰，但我們對未來幾年 WFE 的結構性成長感到非常樂觀。所以今天，我們將做一些能夠提升公司價值的正確事情。在持續投資的同時，我們將推動整個組織實施支出紀律。我們將投資於新產品和新能力。這是關於勝利，關於在即將到來的增長年中，在新的轉折點上取得勝利。我們知道這些轉折點將會出現。

Second, even though we see some positive lead indicators based on conversations with our customers, we will resist the temptation to call the bottom. What we will do, though, we're going to stay close to our customers, we're going to continue to be transparent and we're going to continue to be available to you.

第二，儘管我們從與客戶的對話中看到了一些正面的領先指標，但我們會抵抗住預測市場觸底的誘惑。不過，我們將繼續與客戶保持密切聯繫，繼續保持透明，並繼續為您提供服務。

On that point, we've got the Morgan Stanley conference coming up in a little less than 2 weeks. I look forward to seeing many of you there, and both Gary and I at many other events throughout the rest of the year. Okay, Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

說到這裡，摩根士丹利會議將在不到兩週的時間內召開。我期待在那裡見到你們中的許多人，也期待我和加里在今年餘下的許多其他活動中與大家見面。好的，麥克，我們結束通話吧。

Okay. Great. Thanks, Dan. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. The replay of the call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 p.m. Pacific Time. Thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你，丹。感謝各位今天蒞臨現場。電話會議的錄音將於下午5點前在我們的網站上提供。太平洋時間。感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。