應用材料 (AMAT) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call.

歡迎參加應用材料公司的財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan.

我現在想把會議交給麥可·沙利文。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us.

下午好，感謝您加入我們。

I'm Mike Sullivan, Head of Investor Relations at Applied Materials.

我是麥克·沙利文，應用材料公司投資者關係主管。

We appreciate you joining us for our third quarter of fiscal 2018 earnings call, which is being recorded.

我們感謝您參加我們正在錄製的 2018 財年第三季財報電話會議。

Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

與我一起的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson；和我們的財務長 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's current view of its industries, performance, products, share positions and business outlook.

在開始之前，讓我提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括應用材料公司目前對其行業、業績、產品、股票頭寸和業務前景的看法。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance.

這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，並且不能保證未來績效。

Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

有關這些風險和不確定性的資訊包含在應用程式材料公司最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。

All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections and assumptions as of August 16, 2018, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理階層截至 2018 年 8 月 16 日的估計、預測和假設，應用材料公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

GAAP 衡量標準的調節包含在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的調節幻燈片中，這些幻燈片可以在我們網站 Appliedmaterials.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

I'm pleased to report that our revenue for the quarter was up 19% compared to the same period last year and the second highest in the company's history.

我很高興地報告，我們本季的營收比去年同期成長了 19%，是公司史上第二高的營收。

Fiscal 2018 remains on track to be another record-setting year for Applied Materials, and we expect each of our major businesses to deliver strong double-digit growth.

2018 財年仍然有望成為應用材料公司另一個創紀錄的一年，我們預計我們的每項主要業務都將實現強勁的兩位數成長。

In today's call, I'll start by providing our perspective on the market environment and our business performance.

在今天的電話會議中，我將首先提供我們對市場環境和業務績效的看法。

Then, I'll lay out our views on the industry's future growth drivers and describe how we're evolving our strategy to take full advantage of the tremendous opportunities ahead.

然後，我將闡述我們對該行業未來成長動力的看法，並描述我們如何發展我們的策略，以充分利用未來的巨大機會。

In aggregate, we see ongoing strength in our markets.

總的來說，我們看到市場持續走強。

Customers are making rational investments in new capacity, resulting in well-balanced supply/demand dynamics.

客戶正在對新產能進行理性投資，以實現供需動態的平衡。

At the same time, they are aggressively pursuing their development road maps with healthy spending on next-generation technologies.

同時，他們正在積極追求自己的發展路線圖，並對下一代技術進行健康的支出。

Demand for wafer fab equipment is on track to be an all-time record in 2018, and our view of 2019 remains positive.

2018 年晶圓廠設備的需求可望創歷史新高，我們對 2019 年的看法仍然樂觀。

Our thesis that spending in 2018 plus 2019 combined will exceed $100 billion remains firmly intact.

我們認為 2018 年加上 2019 年支出總計將超過 1,000 億美元的論點仍堅定不移。

The details within our 2018 forecast are consistent with the view we shared during our last call, with the exception of a recent downward revision to our foundry outlook.

我們 2018 年預測中的細節與我們在上次電話會議中分享的觀點一致，除了最近對代工前景的下調。

As foundry customers optimize existing capacity, they have trimmed their capital spending plans for the year.

隨著代工客戶優化現有產能，他們削減了今年的資本支出計畫。

They are still pushing forward with leading-edge development, prioritizing current investments towards long lead time equipment, which is a positive leading indicator for 2019.

他們仍在推動前沿開發，優先考慮對長交貨期設備的當前投資，這是 2019 年的積極領先指標。

NAND bit demand is expected to grow at about 40% this year, with bit supply growing slightly faster.

今年 NAND 位需求預計將成長 40% 左右，位元供應成長略快。

As a result, we see spending levels flat to modestly down from last year's record levels.

因此，我們認為支出水準與去年創紀錄的水準相比持平或略有下降。

DRAM investments are strong, up approximately 50% year-over-year as customers invest in capacity and technology to meet growing demand for high-performance DRAM for data centers.

DRAM 投資強勁，年成長約 50%，因為客戶投資容量和技術以滿足資料中心對高效能 DRAM 不斷增長的需求。

Capital investments by the leading cloud service providers continues to strengthen, up about 85% year-to-date compared to 2017.

領先雲端服務供應商的資本投資持續加強，今年迄今較 2017 年成長約 85%。

And in line with our prior view, we also expect logic investments to be higher this year.

與我們先前的觀點一致，我們也預期今年的邏輯投資將會更高。

Stepping back and looking at the broader context.

退後一步，看看更廣泛的背景。

2018 shows how the industry has fundamentally changed over the past 5 years.

2018 年展示了該行業在過去 5 年中發生的根本性變化。

More diverse demand drivers spanning consumer and enterprise markets, combined with very disciplined investment, has reduced cyclicality.

消費者和企業市場更加多樣化的需求驅動因素，加上非常嚴格的投資，降低了週期性。

We're not seeing the large fluctuations in wafer fab equipment spending that we did in the past.

我們沒有看到晶圓廠設備支出像過去那樣大幅波動。

Over the same time period, we've also driven significant changes within Applied that have resulted in a larger, less volatile and more resilient business.

在同一時期，我們也在應用材料公司內部推動了重大變革，從而實現了更大、波動更小、更有彈性的業務。

In semiconductor, we have gained 7 points of market share in memory since 2013, while maintaining our traditionally strong position in logic foundry.

在半導體領域，自 2013 年以來，我們在記憶體領域的市佔率增加了 7 個百分點，同時維持了我們在邏輯代工領域的傳統強勢地位。

As a result, we are now very well balanced across market segments.

因此，我們現在在各個細分市場之間取得了很好的平衡。

We've built a strong portfolio of products that address major technology inflections.

我們建立了強大的產品組合來應對重大技術變化。

For example, by developing tools for next-generation multi-patterning, we have grown our patterning business in DRAM, logic and foundry from about $100 million in 2013 to more than $1 billion this year.

例如，透過開發下一代多重圖案化工具，我們在 DRAM、邏輯和代工領域的圖案化業務從 2013 年的約 1 億美元成長到今年的超過 10 億美元。

We expect our patterning opportunity to grow by another $1 billion as EUV and new materials-enabled patterning steps are adopted over the next 5 years.

我們預計，隨著 EUV 和新材料支援的圖案化步驟在未來 5 年內的採用，我們的圖案化機會將再成長 10 億美元。

In display, we have scaled the business from about $600 million in 2012 to approximately $2.5 billion this year.

在展示方面，我們已將業務規模從 2012 年的約 6 億美元擴大到今年的約 25 億美元。

In both TV and mobile, customers are investing in new technologies, and that plays directly to Applied's strengths.

在電視和行動領域，客戶正在投資新技術，這直接發揮了應用材料公司的優勢。

We expect display to remain a powerful growth driver for the company over the long term.

我們預計，從長遠來看，顯示器仍將是公司強大的成長動力。

In service, we have grown revenue at a 15% compound annual growth rate since 2014.

在服務方面，自 2014 年以來，我們的收入以 15% 的複合年增長率成長。

As we look ahead, we're confident that we can sustain at least that pace of growth, driven by: our growing installed base; customers placing a larger portion of tools under long-term service agreements; and new advanced service products that help customers shorten ramp times, improve device performance and yield and optimize operating costs.

展望未來，我們有信心至少能夠維持這樣的成長速度，其推動因素是：我們不斷成長的安裝基礎；客戶將大部分工具納入長期服務協議；以及新的先進服務產品，可協助客戶縮短爬坡時間、提高設備性能和產量並優化營運成本。

When we look at the company as a whole, about 40% of our revenue today comes from sources other than new semiconductor equipment sales.

當我們把公司作為一個整體來看時，我們今天大約 40% 的收入來自新半導體設備銷售以外的其他來源。

Combined, our services, spares, upgrades, consulting, software and display and flexible technology businesses will generate more than $7 billion of revenue this year.

我們的服務、備件、升級、諮詢、軟體和顯示以及靈活技術業務今年將創造超過 70 億美元的收入。

This breadth and diversity gives us confidence in our ability to sustain strong performance under a variety of market conditions and provide a great platform for future growth.

這種廣度和多樣性使我們相信我們有能力在各種市場條件下保持強勁的業績，並為未來的成長提供良好的平台。

I strongly believe that the most exciting days for the industry and Applied are ahead of us.

我堅信，對於產業和應用材料公司來說，最令人興奮的日子就在前方。

Over the next decade, AI and big data will transform almost every sector of the economy and be a major growth driver for electronics and semiconductors.

未來十年，人工智慧和大數據將改變幾乎所有經濟領域，並成為電子和半導體的主要成長動力。

AI is already driving a significant increase in hardware research and investment from a broad range of companies because it requires new types of computing at the edge and in the cloud, lower-cost, lower-power chips and abundant storage.

人工智慧已經推動了許多公司的硬體研究和投資大幅增加，因為它需要邊緣和雲端的新型運算、更低成本、更低功耗的晶片和充足的儲存。

In these early innings of AI, the industry is focused on addressing 2 major technology inflections: first, the development of new computing architectures customized for specific training or inference workloads; and second, overcoming the deceleration of Moore's Law scaling.

在人工智慧的早期階段，該產業專注於解決兩個主要技術變化：首先，開發針對特定訓練或推理工作負載客製化的新運算架構；其次，克服摩爾定律縮放的減速。

This is driving new types of innovation across the ecosystem.

這正在推動整個生態系統的新型創新。

We believe that future improvements in chip performance, power, area and cost needed to enable the AI era will be driven by a combination of 5 factors: new chip architectures; new structures within the chip, including 3D; new materials; new ways to shrink chip geometries, including EUV lithography and self-aligned patterning; and new ways to connect chips together using advanced packaging techniques.

我們相信，未來人工智慧時代所需的晶片性能、功耗、面積和成本的改進將由五個因素共同推動：新的晶片架構；晶片內的新結構，包括 3D；新材料；縮小晶片幾何形狀的新方法，包括 EUV 光刻和自對準圖案化；以及使用先進封裝技術將晶片連接在一起的新方法。

All 5 of these approaches will require major advances in materials engineering and create huge opportunities for Applied.

所有 5 種方法都需要在材料工程方面取得重大進展，並為應用材料公司創造巨大的機會。

The AI big data era is a catalyst for Applied to play a bigger and broader role than ever before.

人工智慧大數據時代是應用材料公司發揮比以往更大、更廣泛作用的催化劑。

Our first priority is to be the most valuable partner for our customers.

我們的首要任務是成為客戶最有價值的合作夥伴。

The introduction of more novel materials, combined with new structures to improve power, performance and cost, means that integration challenges in a chip manufacturing process are increasingly complex.

更多新穎材料的引入，結合新結構以提高功耗、性能和成本，意味著晶片製造過程中的整合挑戰變得越來越複雜。

Our broad portfolio of technology and our ability to understand the interaction between materials creation, materials removal and materials modification is tremendously valuable.

我們廣泛的技術組合以及我們了解材料創造、材料去除和材料改質之間相互作用的能力非常有價值。

As a result, we are seeing customers engaging Applied in earlier and deeper collaborations to develop unique solutions focused on device performance and yield.

因此，我們看到客戶與應用材料公司進行了更早、更深入的合作，以開發專注於設備性能和良率的獨特解決方案。

One example of how we're doing this is integrated materials solutions, where we can combine multiple processes together, typically within a single system.

我們如何做到這一點的一個例子是整合材料解決方案，我們可以將多個流程組合在一起，通常在一個系統中。

We launched our first integrated materials system in June, but this is just the start.

我們在六月推出了第一個整合材料系統，但這只是個開始。

We have a very robust pipeline of integrated products, several of which we expect to come to market in 2019.

我們擁有非常強大的整合產品系列，其中一些產品預計將於 2019 年上市。

We're also expanding our engagements within the AI ecosystem and finding new ways to create value with our technology.

我們也擴大了在人工智慧生態系統中的參與度，並尋找利用我們的技術創造價值的新方法。

For example, we recently announced a collaboration with ARM to develop a neuromorphic switch that can enable new approaches to AI computing.

例如，我們最近宣布與 ARM 合作開發一種神經形態開關，可以實現人工智慧運算的新方法。

This program is part of DARPA's Electronics Resurgence Initiative to develop new computing materials, designs and architectures.

該計劃是 DARPA 電子復興計劃的一部分，旨在開發新的計算材料、設計和架構。

In July, we hosted the industry's first AI design forum, with over 700 attendees spanning system architects, chip designers and the manufacturing community.

7 月，我們舉辦了業界首屆 AI 設計論壇，有 700 多名與會者，涵蓋系統架構師、晶片設計師和製造業。

The common message from participants was that the ecosystem needs to work together in new ways to bring AI technologies to market faster and at lower cost.

參與者的共同訊息是，生態系統需要以新的方式合作，以更快、更低的成本將人工智慧技術推向市場。

Applied has highly differentiated technologies and capabilities to accelerate new materials and systems like our Maydan technology center that enables rapid testing of new concepts and designs.

應用材料公司擁有高度差異化的技術和能力來加速新材料和系統的發展，例如我們的 Maydan 技術中心，可以快速測試新概念和設計。

To further accelerate materials innovation and our ability to connect across the ecosystem, we're expanding capacity and capabilities.

為了進一步加速材料創新和我們跨生態系統的連結能力，我們正在擴大產能和能力。

In addition, we're applying AI and big data methods within our own research and development teams.

此外，我們也在自己的研發團隊中應用人工智慧和大數據方法。

We're partnering with leading AI companies in making infrastructure investments to significantly increase learning rates.

我們正在與領先的人工智慧公司合作進行基礎設施投資，以顯著提高學習率。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'll quickly summarize.

在將電話轉給丹之前，我將快速總結一下。

Industry fundamentals remain strong, with customers making disciplined investments in capacity and new technologies.

產業基本面依然強勁，客戶對產能和新技術進行了嚴格的投資。

Applied's performance remains strong.

應用材料公司的業績依然強勁。

2018 will be another record year for all of our major businesses, and our outlook for 2019 is positive.

2018 年將是我們所有主要業務再創紀錄的一年，我們對 2019 年的前景持樂觀態度。

And we see a very bright future ahead.

我們看到了一個非常光明的未來。

We're expanding engagements with current and new customers to position the company to play a larger and more valuable role in the AI big data era.

我們正在擴大與現有客戶和新客戶的合作，以使公司在人工智慧大數據時代發揮更大、更有價值的作用。

Now Dan will give his perspective on our performance and outlook.

現在丹將發表他對我們的表現和前景的看法。

Thanks Gary.

謝謝加里。

In Q3, Applied delivered revenue and non-GAAP earnings that were both within 2% of the all-time record we set last quarter.

第三季度，應用材料公司的營收和非 GAAP 收益均與我們上季度創下的歷史記錄相差不到 2%。

On a year-over-year basis, we generated strong revenue growth and increased non-GAAP EPS by 40% even as our memory customers made capacity adjustments during the period.

儘管我們的記憶體客戶在此期間進行了產能調整，但與去年同期相比，我們的營收成長強勁，非 GAAP 每股收益成長了 40%。

We continue to see the wafer fab equipment market and Applied Materials being sustainably larger and less cyclical today than in the past.

我們繼續看到晶圓廠設備市場和應用材料公司今天的規模持續擴大，週期性比過去更小。

And as Gary outlined, our outlook for 2019 and the longer term remains very positive.

正如加里所概述的那樣，我們對 2019 年和長期的前景仍然非常樂觀。

Given the adjustments in memory markets along with recent foundry CapEx reductions, I want to offer you a little help this quarter with how we see demand profiling from 2018 into 2019.

鑑於記憶體市場的調整以及最近代工廠資本支出的減少，我想在本季度為您提供一些幫助，了解我們如何看待 2018 年至 2019 年的需求分析。

My philosophy is to tell you what I see today based on our market analysis and customer engagements.

我的理念是根據我們的市場分析和客戶參與來告訴您我今天所看到的情況。

I can't guarantee what happens in the economy, in policy circles or in our markets, but I'm happy to be transparent with you and let you make your own judgments about the external factors.

我無法保證經濟、政策圈或我們的市場會發生什麼，但我很高興對你保持透明，讓你對外部因素做出自己的判斷。

Our fiscal Q4 business outlook calls for semiconductor systems revenue to decline by about 4% year-over-year, with non-GAAP earnings to increase by about 3% year-over-year at the midpoint to $0.96.

我們的第四財季業務展望預計，半導體系統營收將年減約 4%，非 GAAP 收益將年增約 3%，中位數達到 0.96 美元。

From what I can see today, semiconductor systems revenue will be flat to slightly higher sequentially in Q1.

從我今天看到的情況來看，第一季半導體系統收入將持平或略有上升。

Non-GAAP earnings will be slightly higher sequentially in Q1 as well, even when you include a $0.05 headwind from an increase in our tax rate that takes effect in fiscal 2019.

即使考慮到 2019 財年生效的稅率上調帶來的 0.05 美元的阻力，第一季的非 GAAP 收益也將略高於上一季。

Our current outlook into Q2 and the balance of fiscal 2019 is for continued growth.

我們目前對第二季和 2019 財年餘額的展望是持續成長。

Returning to the bigger picture Gary described.

回到加里描述的大局。

You may notice how resilient the industry and the company have become, particularly given the supply and demand adjustments now taking place in memory.

您可能會注意到該行業和公司已經變得多麼有彈性，特別是考慮到記憶體中正在發生的供需調整。

Some of us remember the steep cyclicality of the past, but here's the news.

我們中的一些人還記得過去的劇烈週期性，但這是新聞。

We expect trough non-GAAP quarterly earnings of $0.96 in Q4.

我們預計第四季非 GAAP 季度收益將達到 0.96 美元。

To put this into perspective, $0.96 also happens to be the average of our full year earnings in the 6 years from 2010 through 2015.

從這個角度來看，0.96 美元也恰好是我們從 2010 年到 2015 年這 6 年裡全年收入的平均值。

We can now generate the same level of earnings in a single quarter.

我們現在可以在一個季度內產生相同水準的收益。

This comparison demonstrates the benefits of Applied's breadth and growth.

這一比較證明了應用材料公司的廣度和成長的優勢。

In semi, while our memory systems revenue declined by 19% sequentially in Q3, our overall systems business was down by half that amount.

在半導體領域，雖然我們的記憶體系統收入在第三季環比下降了 19%，但我們的整體系統業務卻下降了一半。

This demonstrates the benefits of our balanced revenue share across device types.

這證明了我們在不同設備類型之間平衡收入分成的好處。

Applied's display business has grown nearly $2 billion as compared to 2012, and the best indication of Applied's resilience is our services business.

與 2012 年相比，應用材料公司的顯示器業務成長了近 20 億美元，而應用材料公司韌性的最佳體現就是我們的服務業務。

This quarter, AGS posted its 19th consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth.

本季度，AGS 連續第 19 個季度實現同比增長。

In fact, Applied has the industry's largest installed base of more than 40,000 systems, and we're shipping over 2,000 new 300-millimeter systems this year alone.

事實上，應用材料公司擁有業界最大的安裝基礎，擁有超過 40,000 個系統，光是今年我們就出貨了 2,000 多個新的 300 毫米系統。

This year's record shipments will further expand our services opportunity next year.

今年創紀錄的出貨量將進一步擴大我們明年的服務機會。

In fact, due to the increasing trust our customers are placing in our services products, we are now generating about half of our services revenue from long-term agreements.

事實上，由於客戶對我們的服務產品越來越信任，我們現在大約一半的服務收入來自長期協議。

I'm sometimes asked to quantify the total proportion of our semi-related business that comes from servicing the installed base.

有時我會被要求量化我們的半相關業務中來自服務安裝基礎的總比例。

The answer is 32%.

答案是32%。

That's AGS excluding display services plus 300-millimeter upgrades and refurbishments, which are reported as part of our semiconductor systems group segment.

AGS 不包括顯示服務以及 300 毫米升級和翻新服務，這些服務被報告為我們半導體系統集團部門的一部分。

So Applied generates more installed base revenue than any other company in our industry.

因此，應用材料公司產生的安裝基礎收入比業內任何其他公司都多。

Now I'll summarize our third quarter results.

現在我將總結我們第三季的業績。

We generated operating income of $1.3 billion, which was up 22% year-over-year.

我們實現營業收入 13 億美元，年增 22%。

Our non-GAAP EPS was $1.20, which was $0.03 above the midpoint, benefiting from higher revenue as well as lower tax rate and share count.

我們的非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.20 美元，比中點高出 0.03 美元，這得益於更高的收入以及更低的稅率和股票數量。

Turning to the segments.

轉向細分市場。

Our semiconductor systems group delivered revenue that was slightly above the midpoint of our expectations.

我們的半導體系統部門的收入略高於我們預期的中位數。

Our services revenue was up 21% year-over-year, which was slightly lower than the midpoint of our Q3 expectations but well above our long-term growth target.

我們的服務收入年增 21%，略低於我們第三季預期的中位數，但遠高於我們的長期成長目標。

AGS posted another all-time record in both revenue and operating income.

AGS 的收入和營業收入均創下歷史新高。

Our display group delivered revenue that was slightly above the midpoint and also set new records in both revenue and operating income.

我們的顯示器部門的收入略高於中點，並且在收入和營業收入方面也創下了新紀錄。

Turning to the balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。

Gary talked about the many initiatives we're driving to accelerate innovation.

加里談到了我們為加速創新而推動的許多舉措。

We invested $133 million in capital improvements that were primarily aimed at expanding our capabilities in both R&D and manufacturing to support our customers.

我們投資了 1.33 億美元用於資本改善，主要目的是擴大我們在研發和製造方面的能力，以支持我們的客戶。

This quarter, we returned over $1.4 billion to shareholders.

本季度，我們向股東返還超過 14 億美元。

We paid out the first $0.20 dividend, and we used $1.25 billion to repurchase 25 million shares of our stock.

我們支付了第一筆 0.20 美元的股息，並以 12.5 億美元回購了 2,500 萬股股票。

Over the last 12 months alone, we've repurchased 92 million shares or 9% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of that period.

光是過去 12 個月內，我們就回購了 9,200 萬股股票，即期初已發行股票的 9%。

And we still have about $5 billion remaining in buyback authorization.

我們還有大約 50 億美元的回購授權。

Now I'll share our business outlook for Q4.

現在我將分享我們對第四季的業務展望。

We expect overall revenue to be in the range of $3.85 billion to $4.15 billion.

我們預計整體營收將在 38.5 億美元至 41.5 億美元之間。

Within the outlook, we expect semiconductor systems revenue to decline by about 4% year-over-year.

展望未來，我們預期半導體系統營收將年減約 4%。

This forecast includes the impact of recent foundry CapEx reductions.

該預測包括最近代工廠資本支出削減的影響。

Our services revenue should increase by about 15% year-over-year.

我們的服務收入應該年增15%左右。

And our display revenue should grow by about 2% year-over-year.

我們的顯示器收入應該會年增2%左右。

Our non-GAAP gross margin should be around 45.4%, and our non-GAAP operating expenses should be in the range of $765 million, plus or minus $10 million.

我們的非 GAAP 毛利率應該在 45.4% 左右，我們的非 GAAP 營運費用應該在 7.65 億美元上下浮動 1000 萬美元的範圍內。

And we expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $0.92 to $1.

我們預計非 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 0.92 美元至 1 美元之間。

Now that you have our financial expectations for the full 2018 fiscal year and our positive view of 2019, I'd like to give you an interim update on our 2020 financial model in the context of the new opportunities Gary has been describing.

現在您已經了解了我們對 2018 財年的財務預期以及對 2019 年的積極看法，我想在加里描述的新機遇的背景下向您介紹我們 2020 年財務模型的中期更新。

Q3 was a very busy quarter for us, and I was delighted to see more than 160 of you at our Investor Breakfast at SEMICON West.

第三季對我們來說是一個非常繁忙的季度，我很高興在 SEMICON West 舉行的投資者早餐會上見到超過 160 人。

At the AI Design Forum, Gary shared the stage with NVIDIA, IBM and many of the world's top AI experts and startups.

在AI設計論壇上，Gary與NVIDIA、IBM以及許多全球頂尖的AI專家和新創公司同台。

Two weeks later, Gary joined NVIDIA, Intel and others at the DARPA ERI Summit, showing how we can use materials engineering to accelerate AI even as Moore's Law slows.

兩週後，Gary 與 NVIDIA、英特爾和其他公司一起參加了 DARPA ERI 高峰會，展示了即使摩爾定律放緩，我們也可以如何利用材料工程來加速人工智慧。

DARPA awarded millions of dollars to Applied, ARM and our research partners to explore new material for neuromorphic computing.

DARPA 向應用材料公司、ARM 和我們的研究合作夥伴提供了數百萬美元，用於探索用於神經形態運算的新材料。

These are early indications of the work we are now doing to drive growth for our company and our customers.

這些是我們目前為推動公司和客戶成長所做工作的早期跡象。

So based on the current view of our markets, our evolving strategy and our financial performance, we are confident that we will exceed our goal of earning $5.08 per share in our 2020 fiscal year.

因此，根據當前對市場的看法、不斷發展的策略和財務業績，我們有信心在 2020 財年超越每股收益 5.08 美元的目標。

Specifically, we expect semi systems revenue to be more than $11.6 billion in fiscal 2020.

具體來說，我們預計 2020 財年半導體系統營收將超過 116 億美元。

We believe $50 billion is the new normal for this industry and that WFE will keep pace with the revenue growth of the industry.

我們相信 500 億美元是該行業的新常態，WFE 將與該行業的收入成長保持同步。

We also expect services plus display revenue of more than $8 billion.

我們也預計服務加顯示收入將超過 80 億美元。

Within the mix, we see services revenue being above our prior expectation, fully offsetting display revenue, which we expect to be up in 2020 but still below our original target.

在這個組合中，我們看到服務收入高於我們先前的預期，完全抵消了顯示收入，我們預計 2020 年顯示收入將有所增長，但仍低於我們最初的目標。

We continue to expect gross margin of 47% and operating margin of 29.6%.

我們繼續預期毛利率為 47%，營業利益率為 29.6%。

Our non-GAAP tax rate should be slightly higher than the prior expectation of 10% due to the new tax rules.

由於新的稅收規則，我們的非 GAAP 稅率應略高於先前預期的 10%。

Additionally, our share count is already below 1 billion versus the original goal of 1.024 billion.

此外，我們的股票數量已經低於 10 億股，而最初的目標是 10.24 億股。

And we'll continue to return excess cash to our investors.

我們將繼續向投資者返還多餘的現金。

Now I'll turn the call back to Mike to start the Q&A.

現在我將把電話轉回給麥克開始問答。

Thanks Dan.

謝謝丹。

(Operator Instructions) Let's please begin.

（操作員指示）讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from C.J. Muse of Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess for my question, can you talk to the adjustments that you saw, both memory and foundry recently?

我想對於我的問題，你能談談你最近看到的記憶體和代工廠的調整嗎？

And then, as you think about calendar '19, can you discuss kind of the puts and takes in terms of how you're seeing each of the end markets, whether foundry, logic, DRAM, NAND?

然後，當您考慮 19 年日曆時，您能否討論一下您如何看待每個終端市場（無論是代工廠、邏輯、DRAM、NAND）的看跌期權和期權？

And as part of that, if you could include your thoughts around cleanroom availability and timing of investments through the calendar year.

作為其中的一部分，您是否可以包括您對全年無塵室可用性和投資時機的想法。

Thanks, C.J. Given the announcements in the last month, we're now seeing some movements in foundry capital spending.

謝謝，C.J. 鑑於上個月的公告，我們現在看到代工資本支出出現了一些變化。

That's reflected in the guidance we just provided for fiscal Q4.

這反映在我們剛剛為第四財季提供的指導中。

All other assumptions from last quarter still hold true.

上季的所有其他假設仍然成立。

To give you more color on what we're seeing in foundry, we continue to see growth in trailing node geometries.

為了讓您更清楚地了解我們在鑄造廠中看到的情況，我們繼續看到尾隨節點幾何形狀的增長。

The split between leading edge and trailing node geometries historically was 80-20.

歷史上，前緣和尾隨節點幾何形狀之間的比例是 80-20。

Then it became 60-40.

然後變成了60-40。

Today, it's more like 50-50.

今天，它更像是50-50。

And specifically in 2018, we see trailing node spend up and leading edge node spend down.

特別是在 2018 年，我們看到尾隨節點支出增加，而前沿節點支出下降。

And on the leading edge, we're seeing a prioritization towards spend to very long lead time items, which we believe is a good indicator of our business going into 2019 and beyond.

在領先優勢上，我們看到優先考慮花在交貨時間很長的項目上，我們認為這是我們業務進入 2019 年及以後的一個很好的指標。

In 2019, we expect both leading and trailing node geometries spend to be healthy.

2019 年，我們預期前導節點和尾隨節點幾何結構的支出都將保持健康。

When we look at 2018 and 2019, just to provide the broader context, 2017 was an all-time record.

當我們回顧 2018 年和 2019 年時，為了提供更廣泛的背景，2017 年是歷史最高紀錄。

2018 is likely to be the new record, being up over '17.

2018 年可能會創下新紀錄，較 17 年上升。

And we're seeing strength across all device types.

我們看到了所有設備類型的優勢。

Gary in his prepared comments said 2018 plus 2019 combined will exceed $100 billion.

加里在他準備好的評論中表示，2018 年加上 2019 年加起來將超過 1000 億美元。

I think it's too early to make a point estimate on either year.

我認為現在對任何一年進行點估計還為時過早。

But based on customer conversations we're having, 2019 will be above $50 billion and still healthy across all device types.

但根據我們與客戶的對話，2019 年的銷售額將超過 500 億美元，並且在所有設備類型上仍然保持健康發展。

And so we're really seeing a strong end market and how things profile into 2019.

因此，我們確實看到了一個強勁的終端市場以及 2019 年的情況。

And I think, C.J., I might add a comment, something about capacity at the fab level for some of this.

我想，C.J.，我可能會添加一條評論，一些關於晶圓廠級別產能的評論。

So I think that we -- or that view hasn't really changed, has it?

所以我認為我們——或者說這種觀點並沒有真正改變，不是嗎？

Yes, so the best I can get to from a capacity standpoint is we're tracking 32 300-millimeter factories around the globe that still have to be facilitized.

是的，所以從產能的角度來看，我能得到的最好結果是我們正在追蹤全球 32,300 毫米工廠，但這些工廠仍需要設施化。

The average size of those 32 fabs is about 72,000 wafer starts per month, and it represents about 200 billion of potential floor space for WFE equipment.

這 32 家晶圓廠的平均規模約為每月 72,000 片晶圓開工，這意味著 WFE 設備的潛在佔地面積約為 2,000 億美元。

So in terms of ability to deploy capacity in a fairly rapid fashion, I think the infrastructure and the build is out there.

因此，就以相當快的方式部署容量的能力而言，我認為基礎架構和建置已經存在。

I think it's just a matter of letting the demand-led environment lead our customers' investment profile to maintain rational supply/demand dynamics and strong pricing in their markets.

我認為這只是讓需求主導的環境引導我們客戶的投資狀況，以維持市場合理的供需動態和強勁的定價。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik of Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的阿蒂夫·馬利克。

Dan, thank you for updating us on the $5 2020 target model.

Dan，感謝您向我們通報 2020 年 5 美元目標型號的最新情況。

I have a question on the display segment.

我有一個關於顯示部分的問題。

It looks like you guys are on track to do 30% year-over-year growth in fiscal '18.

看起來你們預計在 18 財年實現 30% 的年成長。

On the last earnings call, you guys talked about a decline of 15% to 20% for fiscal '19.

在上次財報電話會議上，你們談到 19 財年的表現下降了 15% 到 20%。

I was curious if anything has changed to that outlook in the mobile or the TV markets.

我很好奇行動或電視市場的前景是否發生了變化。

Thanks, Atif.

謝謝，阿提夫。

So our display forecast is really unchanged, similar to what we communicated previously.

因此，我們的顯示預測實際上沒有變化，與我們先前溝通的情況類似。

As you said, '18 is going to be around $2.5 billion, up more than 30% from the previous year and up from $600 million in 2012.

正如您所說，'18 年的收入約為 25 億美元，比上一年增長 30% 以上，也高於 2012 年的 6 億美元。

So tremendous growth overall in display.

顯示器的整體成長如此巨大。

And we still see 2019 down in the 15% range and 2020 to be higher than 2018.

我們仍預期 2019 年將下降 15%，2020 年將高於 2018 年。

In terms of mix, 2018, 2019 is more weighted towards TV.

從組合來看，2018年、2019年以電視為主。

And one thing I'd remind everybody, for large-screen TVs, if you compare Gen 10.5 to Gen 8.5, you get 8 TVs versus 3. So our view on the TV market is similar to what we previously communicated.

我要提醒大家的一件事是，對於大螢幕電視，如果你比較10.5 代和8.5 代，你會得到8 台電視，而不是3 台電視。 。

And overall, again, we see 2020 up over 2018, continue to see display as a great growth driver for the company.

總體而言，我們再次預計 2020 年將比 2018 年有所成長，並繼續將顯示器視為公司的巨大成長動力。

Future technology inflections are more capital-intensive, and we have a pipeline of new capabilities that create a strong opportunity for future growth.

未來的技術變革將更加資本密集型，我們擁有一系列新能力，為未來成長創造強大的機會。

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自新街研究公司的皮埃爾·費拉古。

I'd like to come back very rapidly on C.J.'s question and really make a difference between memory and logic.

我想快速回到 C.J. 的問題，並真正在記憶和邏輯之間做出區分。

So if I understood you correctly, Dan, what you're saying is that in memory, what you saw 3 months ago and that led you to tell us you could reasonably expect like sequential growth between Q3 and Q4 in semiconductor system, that outlook didn't change, which means that the low point in memory was Q3 and things should be improving from there based on your visibility today.

因此，如果我理解正確的話，丹，你所說的是，在記憶中，你三個月前看到的情況讓你告訴我們，你可以合理地預期半導體系統第三季度和第四季度之間的連續成長，但這種前景並沒有不會改變，這意味著記憶體的最低點是第三季度，根據您今天的可見性，情況應該會有所改善。

And then, the new thing is only logic and the pushback, the pull-out you mentioned about logic.

然後，新事物只是邏輯和你提到的關於邏輯的推回、拉出。

And then, on the back of that, my question would be, how much confidence do you have in the fact that this Q4 number is also baking in low points in logic, which means that we would have gone through, in just a couple of quarters, a pullback in memory and a pullback in logic, and with therefore limited risk of a further negative surprise down the line?

然後，在此基礎上，我的問題是，您對第四季度的數字也在邏輯上處於低點這一事實有多大信心，這意味著我們只需幾分鐘就能完成季度，內存回落和邏輯回落，因此未來進一步出現負面意外的風險有限？

Thanks, Pierre.

謝謝，皮埃爾。

A couple of comments.

一些評論。

On the memory side, everything that is out in the market today from an information standpoint, it was reflected in our guide, and that's playing out as we thought.

在記憶體方面，從資訊的角度來看，當今市場上的所有內容都反映在我們的指南中，並且正如我們所想的那樣。

So there's no incremental news and information.

所以沒有增量新聞和資訊。

And the delta between what we thought -- how we thought Q4 was going to profile 3 months ago versus what we're guiding to today is a foundry-driven dynamic.

我們的想法——三個月前我們對第四季的預期與我們今天的指導之間的差異是由代工廠驅動的動態。

So you used the word logic.

所以你用了邏輯這個字。

We differentiate between logic and foundry.

我們區分邏輯和鑄造。

And so I just want to be clear that our view is coming out of the foundry market, and it was versus our expectations on how Q4 was going to profile.

因此，我只想澄清一下，我們的觀點來自代工市場，這與我們對第四季的情況的預期不同。

So that is the big delta between what we thought 3 months ago.

這就是我們三個月前的想法之間的巨大差異。

And as we roll the clock forward, the spending in foundry today is being driven by very long lead time items, which we see as a lead indicator for our business, where the lead times are much shorter as capacity comes online to meet customer demand.

隨著時間的推移，今天鑄造廠的支出是由非常長的交貨時間項目驅動的，我們將其視為我們業務的領先指標，隨著產能上線以滿足客戶需求，交貨時間要短得多。

So I think the setup around 2019 for us is a result of that, and the foundry market looks good.

所以我認為我們 2019 年左右的設定就是這個結果，代工市場看起來不錯。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

This is Steven Chin calling on behalf of Krish.

我是 Steven Chin 代表 Krish 的電話。

Gary, earlier you mentioned some comments on the NAND market, specifically sort of what you're seeing in terms of the demand growth of roughly 40% and supply growth a little bit more than that.

Gary，早些時候您提到了對 NAND 市場的一些評論，特別是您所看到的需求增長約 40% 和供應增長略高於此的情況。

I was wondering if you could give some more color on how you see the NAND WFE profile going to the back end this year and maybe into 2019 just based on some of those comments.

我想知道您是否可以根據其中一些評論，進一步說明您如何看待今年後端甚至 2019 年的 NAND WFE 概況。

And I guess the implication would be there might be some pricing pressure in the NAND market if those dynamics continue to play out.

我猜這意味著，如果這些動態繼續發揮作用，NAND 市場可能會面臨一些定價壓力。

And if so, would you expect NAND WFE to see some slowdown towards the back end of the year because of pricing?

如果是這樣，您是否預計 NAND WFE 會因定價而在今年年底出現一些放緩？

Or do you think investments in upgrades to the 96 layer or above, if that will continue, and hence, continue to keep NAND WFE strong?

或者您認為升級到 96 層或以上的投資是否會繼續下去，從而繼續保持 NAND WFE 的強勁？

So I guess here's the comments that I would make on the NAND market.

所以我想這就是我對 NAND 市場的評論。

We signaled a quarter ago that we were going to see some back-half weakness.

我們在一個季度前就曾表示我們將看到後半區的一些弱點。

I think that's playing out as we expected.

我認為這正如我們預期的那樣。

In Gary's prepared comments, he talked about the NAND market being down year-over-year versus 2017.

在 Gary 準備好的評論中，他談到 NAND 市場與 2017 年相比逐年下降。

We see that playing out.

我們看到這種情況正在發生。

And as we look at the health of the market, if we take a step back and just look at the macro drivers driving semiconductor demand today, those macro drivers are intact and playing out as expected.

當我們審視市場的健康狀況時，如果我們退後一步，看看當今推動半導體需求的宏觀驅動因素，就會發現這些宏觀驅動因素完好無損，並按預期發揮作用。

Things like artificial intelligence and the data economy are going to drive a structurally larger semiconductor industry as the demand for those devices to fuel those trends increases over time.

人工智慧和數據經濟等事物將推動結構性更大的半導體產業發展，因為隨著時間的推移，對這些設備的需求將推動這些趨勢的成長。

As we take a look at customer profitability, it's better today than it's ever been, and they're investing a lot of money.

當我們審視客戶的獲利能力時，我們發現今天的獲利能力比以往任何時候都好，而且他們投入了大量資金。

But as a percentage of their profitability, it's down substantially since 2012.

但佔其獲利能力的百分比自 2012 年以來大幅下降。

In the memory market over that time period, CapEx as a percentage of EBITDA is down 40%.

在此期間的記憶體市場，資本支出佔 EBITDA 的百分比下降了 40%。

And the customers are doing a better job of modulating supply and making demand-led investments.

客戶在調節供應和進行以需求為導向的投資方面做得更好。

There will always be adjustments from a supply-demand standpoint to keep those markets in balance.

從供需的角度來看，總是會進行調整以維持這些市場的平衡。

And I think that our customers have done a good job to strike the right balance in the environment that we're in.

我認為我們的客戶在我們所處的環境中取得了適當的平衡方面做得很好。

And as we look forward into 2019, I'll come back to an earlier comment on one of the earlier questions, we see a healthy dynamic across all 4 device types into 2019.

當我們展望 2019 年時，我將回到先前對先前問題之一的評論，我們看到 2019 年所有 4 種設備類型都呈現健康的動態。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer of Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的約翰‧皮策。

Guys, similar to your U.S. peers, you're kind of calling your October quarter as the bottom.

夥計們，與你們的美國同行類似，你們將 10 月份的季度稱為底部。

A little bit different than your U.S. peers is they're a little bit more emphatic about growth into their December quarter, your January quarter.

與美國同業略有不同的是，他們更注重 12 月季度（即 1 月季度）的成長。

And I'm just kind of curious.

我只是有點好奇。

Is that a function of sort of your over -- being over-indexed to foundry or not as indexed to 5-nanometer as on the process equipment side, i.e., if you were to look at your domestic peers and kind of compare the apples-to-apples businesses, would you be more confident that your January semi equipment business would be up sequentially?

這是否是你過度關注代工廠的功能，或者不像工藝設備方面那樣關注 5 奈米，也就是說，如果你要看看你的國內同行並比較一下蘋果——對於蘋果業務，您是否更有信心您一月份的半設備業務將較上季成長？

So I think there's a couple of things at play, John, and thanks for the question.

所以我認為有幾個因素在起作用，約翰，謝謝你的提問。

The first thing I would say is it's hard for me to know exactly what the assumptions were in each of the competitors' and peers' forecasts.

我要說的第一件事是，我很難確切地知道每個競爭對手和同行的預測中的假設是什麼。

So it's hard to make a direct comparison of what we see differently than others.

因此，很難直接比較我們所看到的與其他人不同的東西。

What I would say is, is our guide reflects everything we see.

我想說的是，我們的指南反映了我們所看到的一切。

Our footprint is broader than our peers.

我們的足跡比同行更廣。

We're exposed to more of those end markets and device types.

我們接觸到更多的終端市場和設備類型。

And the guidance we have reflects our view of the world and the conversations we're having with our customers.

我們的指導反映了我們對世界的看法以及我們與客戶的對話。

From a foundry-specific standpoint, we emphasize the fact that spending on the leading edge today is prioritizing some very long lead time items for capacity that will come online in the next year, 18 months, which is a nice setup for shorter lead time tools, which creates a nice opportunity for us going into 2019.

從特定於代工廠的角度來看，我們強調這樣一個事實，即今天在前沿的支出優先考慮一些交貨時間很長的項目，這些項目的產能將在明年（18 個月）內上線，這對於較短交貨時間的工具來說是一個很好的設置，這為我們進入2019年創造了一個很好的機會。

So it's hard to be very specific on a comparative basis of how we're profiling differently than others.

因此，很難在比較的基礎上非常具體地了解我們與其他人的分析方式有何不同。

All we can try to do is be transparent with what we see developing in the market and how our conversations with customers are profiling.

我們所能做的就是對我們所看到的市場發展以及我們與客戶的對話如何進行分析保持透明。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur of JP Morgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Sorry if I missed this, but can you guys just help us understand the dynamics around the foundry push-outs?

抱歉，如果我錯過了這一點，但是你們能幫助我們了解鑄造廠推出的動態嗎？

If I look at my semi coverage universe, right, some of the big complex SoC guys, Broadcom, AMD, Xilinx, Qualcomm, so on, the 7-nanometer tape-out ramp looks actually quite significant.

如果我看看我的半覆蓋宇宙，對吧，一些大型複雜的 SoC 公司，Broadcom、AMD、Xilinx、Qualcomm 等，7 奈米流片斜坡看起來實際上相當重要。

That's going to start to ramp kind of beginning of next year.

這將從明年初開始增加。

So if you could just help us understand the rationale for your views on what you think in terms of why the push-outs of investment here in the second half of this year.

因此，請您幫助我們了解您對今年下半年投資退出的看法的理由。

And maybe just also address the breadth of the foundry push-out.

也許還可以解決代工廠推出的廣度問題。

Is it primarily one customer or is it multiple customers?

主要是一個客戶還是多個客戶？

Thanks, Harlan.

謝謝，哈倫。

As we take a look at the foundry segment, what we can reflect in our guide is what gets communicated from our customer base.

當我們審視代工領域時，我們可以在指南中反映的是我們的客戶群傳達的訊息。

And the customers have done a very good job in the foundry space managing a supply statement commensurate with where they see demand coming from.

客戶在代工領域做得非常好，管理了與他們看到的需求來源相稱的供應聲明。

As you know, tape-outs come and capacity gets put in place.

如您所知，流片到來並且產能到位。

And so there's a pretty close synchronization in that market.

因此，該市場的同步性非常接近。

As the business materializes, capacity gets deployed to meet that demand statement.

隨著業務的實現，將部署容量來滿足該需求。

So we feel pretty good that what's in the market today from a capacity standpoint is able to absorb the demand that's coming into the foundry space.

因此，我們感覺很好，從產能的角度來看，當今市場上的產品能夠吸收進入代工領域的需求。

The second part of your question, over the past month, we've been reading about public comments on adjustment in the foundry spending reflects conversations we have with the customer base.

你問題的第二部分，在過去的一個月裡，我們一直在閱讀有關鑄造支出調整的公眾評論，這反映了我們與客戶群的對話。

You're now seeing that reflected in our guidance going forward.

您現在已經看到這一點反映在我們未來的指導中。

The adjustment we're seeing is primarily from what you've been reading about but not exclusively one customer.

我們看到的調整主要來自您所讀到的內容，但不只來自某個客戶。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah of Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Romit Shah。

I guess a 2-part for me.

我想對我來說是兩個部分。

I mean, you made the comment, Gary, in your prepared remarks that the business is seeing less fluctuations, but you, 3 months ago, said that July was going to be the bottom and October would grow.

我的意思是，加里，您在準備好的發言中表示，業務波動正在減少，但您在 3 個月前表示，7 月將觸底，10 月將增長。

And now you're guiding October revenues down about 10%.

現在您指導 10 月的收入下降約 10%。

So how is it that the business is more aligned and less cyclical than what we've seen previously?

那麼，業務為何比我們之前看到的更加一致且週期性更少？

And then I guess, as a second part to that, DRAM spending, I understand, is strong, but all indications are that DRAM pricing's going to be down in Q4.

然後我想，作為第二部分，據我所知，DRAM 支出強勁，但所有跡像都表明 DRAM 定價將在第四季度下降。

So what gives you confidence that this isn't the next -- DRAM is not the next shoe to drop?

那麼，是什麼讓您確信這不是下一個——DRAM 不是下一個被淘汰的鞋子呢？

Thanks, Romit.

謝謝，羅米特。

When we contemplated our July guidance and how October was going to profile, it was conditioned on a set of conversations and a set of knowledge that was in the market.

當我們考慮 7 月的指導以及 10 月的情況時，它以市場上的一組對話和一組知識為條件。

Subsequent to that, there was an adjustment in spend profiles in the foundry space.

隨後，代工領域的支出狀況發生了調整。

Some new information became available, and our guidance reflects all of the information that's out there today.

出現了一些新訊息，我們的指南反映了當今的所有資訊。

When I take a step back and we talk about resilience and we talk about less cyclicality, let's talk about the overall markets and then specifically apply it to Applied Materials.

當我退一步，我們談論彈性，我們談論較少的周期性時，讓我們談論整體市場，然後將其具體應用於應用材料公司。

2017 in the WFE space was an all-time record year.

2017 年對 WFE 領域來說是創歷史新高的一年。

2018 is going to be up over '17, with strength across all device types in an environment where we're talking about reprofiling of both memory and foundry spend.

2018 年將比 17 年有所成長，在我們正在討論記憶體和代工支出重新分析的環境中，所有裝置類型都表現強勁。

And so I think that's a pretty strong statement from an end-market standpoint that the industry is evolving in ways that I think will accrue benefits to us going forward.

因此，我認為從終端市場的角度來看，這是一個非常有力的聲明，表明該行業正在以我認為將為我們未來帶來利益的方式發展。

When we take a step back and look at Applied specifically, in an environment characterized by those same pressures, reprofiling, memory and foundry spend, we talked about EPS in my prepared comments, a single quarter is now larger than what this company used to do in a full year just a short time ago.

當我們退後一步，具體看看應用材料公司時，在一個以同樣的壓力、重新配置、內存和代工支出為特徵的環境中，我們在我準備好的評論中談到了每股收益，現在一個季度的規模比這家公司過去的規模還要大就在不久前的一整年。

And I think that's a pretty strong statement that our business is more resilient and less cyclical than we've seen in the past.

我認為這是一個非常有力的聲明，表明我們的業務比過去更具彈性且週期性更小。

So we feel pretty good about that context and those statements.

因此，我們對這種背景和這些陳述感覺非常好。

And I'm sorry, Romit, what was the second part of your question?

抱歉，羅米特，你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Just I was curious about DRAM.

只是我對 DRAM 感到好奇。

Your DRAM spending has been strong, but it looks like in Q4, DRAM prices could be down.

你們的 DRAM 支出一直很強勁，但看起來第四季度 DRAM 價格可能會下降。

And given that we saw earlier in the year weakness in NAND, that sort of preclude a decline in NAND spending.

鑑於我們在今年早些時候看到 NAND 的疲軟，這在一定程度上排除了 NAND 支出下降的可能性。

I guess, I'm just (inaudible) [find out where] (inaudible)?

我想，我只是（聽不清楚）[找出在哪裡]（聽不清楚）？

So I guess the best way I would address that, Romit, is there can always be changes in markets.

所以我想解決這個問題的最佳方法是，羅米特，市場總是會改變。

What we're giving a perspective on today is what we're seeing in the market.

我們今天給的觀點是我們在市場上看到的。

The supply/demand balance has been reasonably in check from a DRAM standpoint.

從 DRAM 的角度來看，供需平衡已被合理控制。

It's led to pricing stability.

這導致了價格穩定。

It's something the customers monitor very granularly, and they've been very disciplined from an investment standpoint making demand-led investments.

這是客戶非常細緻地監控的事情，從投資的角度來看，他們一直非常嚴格地進行以需求為導向的投資。

Taking a step back, macro trends still impact, but I think the long-term demand drivers around silicon, DRAM and logic, foundry, all device types are still there.

退一步來說，宏觀趨勢仍然會產生影響，但我認為圍繞矽、DRAM 和邏輯、代工以及所有設備類型的長期需求驅動因素仍然存在。

And so if there are short-term disruptions, I don't think it takes -- it changes our long-term view of how these markets evolve.

因此，如果出現短期中斷，我認為這不會改變我們對這些市場如何發展的長期看法。

And so we view the markets still as healthy.

因此，我們認為市場仍然健康。

Our next question comes from Tim Arcuri of UBS Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀證券的提姆·阿庫裡。

Dan, I wanted to ask a question about SSG's share.

Dan，我想問一個關於SSG份額的問題。

So even if I assume like 51 billion this year, which it sounds like it's probably going to be at least that, if not higher, other guys are saying 52 or 53, it still looks like based upon your guidance for the fiscal Q1 that you're still going to lose a little bit of WFE share this year after losing a little bit last year as well.

因此，即使我假設今年約為 510 億美元（聽起來可能至少是其他人所說的 52 或 53 億美元，如果不是更高的話），但根據您對第一財季的指導，您仍然認為繼去年損失了一些WFE 份額之後，今年我們仍將損失一些WFE 份額。

Now maybe that 51 number is too high or something.

也許 51 這個數字太高了或什麼的。

But even if I look at the 2020 model, your comments on that, you said SSG is going to still be about 11 6 or higher, which is in line with the old model, but the old model was at 45 billion WFE.

但即使我看2020年的模型，你對此的評論，你說SSG仍將約為11 6或更高，這與舊模型一致，但舊模型為450億WFE。

And now it seems like you're saying that 50 billion is sort of the new normal.

現在你似乎在說 500 億是一種新常態。

So it seems like the share assumption has come down a bit.

因此，份額假設似乎有所下降。

So I'm wondering what to read into all that.

所以我想知道如何解讀這一切。

Yes, I think -- so last year, the share wasn't down.

是的，我認為 - 所以去年，這個份額並沒有下降。

I think if you go back to the previous 6 years, the share was up or flat, mostly up in all of the previous 6 years.

我認為，如果你回顧過去 6 年，你會發現這一比例是上升還是持平，而且過去 6 年大部分時間都是上升的。

So if you take an overall look at the company over the last few years, one of the big things that we've driven is a much better balance across all device types.

因此，如果你全面審視公司過去幾年的情況，我們推動的一件大事就是在所有設備類型之間實現更好的平衡。

So if you go back to 2013, we had only greater than 20% share in foundry, less than 15% share in NAND, DRAM and logic.

因此，如果你回到 2013 年，我們在代工領域的份額只有 20% 以上，在 NAND、DRAM 和邏輯領域的份額不到 15%。

Since 2013, we've grown the memory revenue 5x and 7% share growth and almost 2x growth in revenue and logic.

自 2013 年以來，我們的記憶體收入成長了 5 倍，份額增加了 7%，收入和邏輯收入成長了近 2 倍。

So again, tremendous balance across all of the device types versus really just being more foundry-focused.

再說一遍，所有設備類型之間的巨大平衡與實際上只是更專注於代工不同。

Then what I would say going forward that -- and certainly, Dan reiterated that we would exceed the model for 2020.

接下來我要說的是——當然，丹重申我們將在 2020 年超越這個模型。

And if I look at the company and how we're positioned, we're in a great position for next technology nodes.

如果我看看公司以及我們的定位，我會發現我們在下一個技術節點上處於有利地位。

A very strong pipeline of new products across many markets and compelling integrated material solutions.

橫跨多個市場的強大新產品系列和引人注目的整合材料解決方案。

And we talked about some of that over the last 2 months.

在過去的兩個月裡我們討論了其中的一些內容。

In the new products, in material solutions, we'll introduce some significant new capabilities in the next 12 months and beyond.

在新產品、材料解決方案中，我們將在未來 12 個月及以後推出一些重要的新功能。

And also, if you look from a macro perspective, I was a speaker at the AI Design Forum and the DARPA conferences, and some of the themes that came out of that were around AI, big data being a major opportunity at the same time Moore's Law is challenged.

而且，如果你從宏觀角度來看，我是人工智慧設計論壇和 DARPA 會議的演講者，其中出現的一些主題是圍繞著人工智慧的，大數據同時也是摩爾的一個重大機會。

So at those conferences, and you see many people talking about the future being about materials, new structures, 3D driving future innovation, enabling AI, big data, power, performance, area and cost, future logic memory, patterning, packaging.

因此，在這些會議上，你會看到很多人談論未來的主題是材料、新結構、推動未來創新的3D、人工智慧、大數據、功率、性能、面積和成本、未來邏輯記憶體、圖案化、封裝。

And at one of those conferences, I gave examples of new capabilities including a 3 orders of magnitude improvement leakage current that provides lower power performance.

在其中一次會議上，我給出了新功能的範例，包括將漏電流提高 3 個數量級，從而提供更低的功耗效能。

And there's, again, a very large value in time-to-market.

而且，上市時間也具有非常大的價值。

So when you think about going from materials to systems, there's tremendous value in accelerating that whole process, going from materials to single process steps, to integrated materials, to structures, to devices, to packages, to systems.

因此，當您考慮從材料到系統時，加速整個過程具有巨大的價值，從材料到單一製程步驟，到整合材料，到結構，到設備，到封裝，到系統。

And I really deeply feel Applied's never been in a better position to use our breadth to enable these new capabilities.

我深深感受到應用材料公司從未處於比現在更好的位置，可以利用我們的廣度來實現這些新功能。

So bottom line, from a position standpoint, we've never been in a better position.

所以最重要的是，從立場的角度來看，我們從未處於更好的位置。

We have a very strong pipeline of new products, integrated materials solutions and Applied really is at the foundation of accelerating these AI, big data industry inflections.

我們擁有非常強大的新產品、整合材料解決方案管道，而應用材料公司確實是加速這些人工智慧、大數據產業轉折點的基礎。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, I was hoping to get an update on how you view your near- and medium-term opportunity in China.

加里，我希望了解您如何看待您在中國的近期和中期機會。

Obviously, there's lots going on from a political/trade perspective.

顯然，從政治/貿易角度來看，正在發生很多事情。

I think some of your customers are making some progress on the technology front.

我認為你們的一些客戶正在技術方面取得一些進展。

I think one of your NAND customers had a pretty big presence at the Flash Memory Summit last week.

我認為你們的一位 NAND 客戶上週在閃存峰會上表現出色。

So just curious what you're seeing today and if you've seen any kind of pull-ins from your customers in China.

所以只是好奇你今天看到了什麼，以及你是否看到了中國客戶的任何形式的吸引。

Yes, thanks, Toshiya, for the question.

是的，謝謝 Toshiya 提出的問題。

Yes, our current forecast for China is in line with our prior assumptions.

是的，我們目前對中國的預測符合我們先前的假設。

2018 is going to be a great year for Applied.

2018 年對於應用材料公司來說將是偉大的一年。

We'll grow faster than the market.

我們將比市場成長得更快。

And based on our mitigation plans, we don't see any meaningful impact from tariffs that have been imposed, that I know people are wondering about.

根據我們的緩解計劃，我們沒有看到已徵收的關稅產生任何有意義的影響，我知道人們對此感到好奇。

So overall, strong position in China.

總的來說，在中國的地位很強。

Regarding the geopolitical situation, certainly, we believe in fair trade and that a successful resolution of the current situation is important to the overall ecosystem.

關於地緣政治局勢，當然，我們相信公平貿易，並且成功解決當前局勢對整個生態系統非常重要。

And we believe that's the likely ultimate outcome.

我們相信這可能是最終結果。

Relative to Applied, we will continue to monitor the impact of any future developments to Applied, supply chain, customers and take any actions that are needed to mitigate impact to Applied and our customers.

相對於應用材料公司，我們將繼續監控任何未來發展對應用材料公司、供應鏈、客戶的影響，並採取任何必要的行動來減輕對應用材料公司和我們客戶的影響。

Relative to technology positions, I think nothing has really changed versus what we thought before.

相對於技術職位，我認為與我們之前的想法相比，沒有什麼真正改變。

China will continue to incrementally invest.

中國將繼續增量投資。

This year, the domestic business is more heavily weighted to foundry logic than memory.

今年，國內業務對代工邏輯的重視程度高於記憶體。

Similar to 2017, it was more foundry logic.

與 2017 年類似，更多的是代工邏輯。

2019, we see more weighted more towards foundry logic.

2019 年，我們看到代工邏輯更加重要。

But China will definitely continue to incrementally invest.

但中國肯定會繼續增加投資。

We don't see any hockey stick relative to future investment, and we still believe it's going to take a long time for their technology to mature to get anywhere close to the leading edge.

我們沒有看到任何與未來投資相關的曲棍球棒，而且我們仍然相信他們的技術需要很長時間才能成熟才能接近領先優勢。

But again, incrementally, we still see China as a very positive market for Applied.

但我們仍然認為中國對於應用材料公司來說是一個非常積極的市場。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

Gary, in past analyst days, which by the way, if you have an update on when you think this year's analyst day will be, where and when, you talked about capital intensity trends, particularly for the NAND industry, and how that's positively impacted Applied Materials.

加里，在過去的分析師日中，順便說一句，如果您有最新的關於今年分析師日的時間、地點和時間的信息，您談到了資本密集度趨勢，特別是NAND 行業的資本密集度趨勢，以及它如何產生積極影響應用材料公司。

As the industry moves to 96 layers and above, can you give us a little bit of an update on Applied's position, both in its core etch and deposition businesses, but also in other areas like CMP and process control, where you gained share in the past and you're looking to gain more share?

隨著行業向 96 層及以上發展，您能否向我們介紹一下應用材料公司在其核心蝕刻和沈積業務以及 CMP 和製程控制等其他領域的地位的最新情況，您在這些領域獲得了市場份額過去，您希望獲得更多份額嗎？

Thanks, Patrick.

謝謝，派崔克。

So yes, I think it was 2000 -- maybe it was 2013, we talked about the 2D -- the 3D NAND inflection and the business moving from litho-intensive to etch and deposition-intensive.

所以，是的，我認為那是 2000 年——也許是 2013 年，我們討論了 2D——3D NAND 的變化以及業務從光刻密集型轉向蝕刻和沈積密集型。

And as I talked about earlier, we've grown our memory revenue from 2013 about 5x.

正如我之前談到的，我們的記憶體收入比 2013 年成長了約 5 倍。

We've increased share 7%.

我們的份額增加了 7%。

We're optimistic that the scaling is going to continue for 3D NAND.

我們樂觀地認為 3D NAND 的規模將繼續擴大。

The -- and we have some really tremendously enabling capabilities.

我們擁有一些非常強大的支援能力。

The etch business for us is continuing to grow.

我們的蝕刻業務正在持續成長。

Our conductor etch share is in a leadership position.

我們的導體蝕刻份額處於領先地位。

We have new capabilities that we're bringing to market in NAND.

我們正在將新功能推向 NAND 市場。

So we're very optimistic on etch.

所以我們對蝕刻非常樂觀。

We're optimistic in terms of deposition.

我們對沉積方面持樂觀態度。

CMP steps are growing in 3D NAND.

3D NAND 中的 CMP 製程正在不斷進步。

So again, overall, I'm very optimistic about the market and our position.

因此，總的來說，我對市場和我們的地位非常樂觀。

And you guys, maybe I'll give an update on the Analyst Day.

你們，也許我會在分析師日提供最新情況。

So we're looking at New York probably for the next one.

所以我們可能會在紐約尋找下一個。

I've got a venue that's on hold.

我有一個場地被擱置了。

What we haven't finalized is the date.

我們尚未最終確定的是日期。

And I've really got 2 choices that we're thinking about.

我確實有兩個我們正在考慮的選項。

One is we squeeze it in before the end of the year.

一是我們要在年底前把它擠出來。

What I'm thinking about is if we do that, we're going to give a long-term market outlook that sounds a lot like what we did at SEMICON West and the AI Design Forum.

我的想法是，如果我們這樣做，我們將給出一個長期的市場前景，這聽起來很像我們在 SEMICON West 和人工智慧設計論壇上所做的。

The other choice is to save the meeting for next year.

另一個選擇是將會議保留到明年。

If we do that, what we'll be able to do is give you some updates on some of the products that we've been alluding to and also some of the initiatives that Gary has been describing, which might be a benefit.

如果我們這樣做，我們將能夠為您提供我們一直提到的一些產品的一些更新，以及加里一直在描述的一些舉措，這可能是一個好處。

So if you ask me from where we sit here, I'm leaning to next year.

因此，如果你問我我們坐在這裡的位置，我傾向於明年。

And what we need to do is make a final determination and then send you a calendar notice.

我們需要做的是做出最終決定，然後向您發送日曆通知。

So I promise to do that, Patrick.

所以我保證會這麼做，派崔克。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Joseph Moore, Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

I have a question on your outlook.

我對你的看法有疑問。

To the extent that the WFE number for FY '20 was 45, is now 50, what's the rationale for the change?

如果 20 財年的 WFE 數量為 45，現在為 50，那麼這項變更的理由是什麼？

What's changed since you gave the $45 billion number?

自從您給出 450 億美元的數字以來，發生了什麼變化？

And then can you talk a little bit about you maintained the gross margin guidance with some mix shifts, with display lower and services higher.

然後您能談談您透過一些組合轉變維持了毛利率指導，即顯示器更低，服務更高。

What's the impact of that mix shift?

這種混合轉變會產生什麼影響？

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

As we take a step back and just look at where we sit relative to what was communicated at the last Analyst Day just in terms of what the new normal is, 2017 was high 40s from a WFE standpoint.

當我們退後一步，看看我們相對於上一次分析師日所傳達的新常態而言，我們所處的位置，從 WFE 的角度來看，2017 年處於 40 多歲的高位。

We talked about '18 and '19 combined exceeding $100 billion.

我們談到 18 年和 19 年的總價值超過 1000 億美元。

And so I think there's visibility on 3 nice proof points that get us to an industry that's larger than what was originally contemplated when we first went out with our long-term model.

因此，我認為有 3 個很好的證據點可以讓我們進入一個比我們第一次推出長期模型時最初設想的更大的行業。

So we feel pretty good about $50 billion being the new norm in the industry going forward.

因此，我們對 500 億美元成為該行業未來的新標準感到非常滿意。

And I'm sorry, the second part of your question?

抱歉，你問題的第二部分？

Yes, just the gross margin impact of mix shift with services stronger and display weaker.

是的，只是服務組合轉變對毛利率的影響更強，而顯示效果更弱。

So the gross margins of our business, while we don't disclose what they are, in order our semi business, our display business and our service business.

我們業務的毛利率雖然我們沒有透露具體是多少，但按照我們的半成品業務、顯示器業務和服務業務的順序排列。

And you rightfully point out, as display is falling short of the target that was originally contemplated by 2020, that shortfall gets made up by our services business, creates a natural headwind in the business.

您正確地指出，由於顯示業務未能達到最初設想的 2020 年目標，因此我們的服務業務彌補了這一不足，從而給業務帶來了自然的阻力。

And the management team is working hard on a number of fronts to drive gross margins and our execution to deliver on our shareholder commitments.

管理團隊正在多個方面努力工作，以提高毛利率和執行力，以履行我們的股東承諾。

And so it's just a lot of hard work that underpins the journey we've been on, and the company has made great progress on this in the last 4 or 5 years, where our gross margins are up 500 basis points.

因此，正是大量的艱苦工作支撐著我們一路走來，公司在過去 4 到 5 年裡在這方面取得了巨大進步，我們的毛利率提高了 500 個基點。

So we feel good about the journey ahead.

所以我們對未來的旅程感覺良好。

Our next question comes from West Twigg of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 West Twigg。

I wanted to ask about Cobalt adoption.

我想問一下關於鈷採用的問題。

You detailed it a couple of months ago.

您在幾個月前詳細介紹了這一點。

I was wondering if you could comment on the traction you're seeing.

我想知道您是否可以對您所看到的吸引力發表評論。

And are customers successfully integrating it?

客戶是否成功整合了它？

Or do you see any yield risk?

或者您認為有任何收益率風險嗎？

And I think you said there was around a $500 million opportunity at 7-nanometer.

我想你說過 7 奈米有大約 5 億美元的機會。

How far into that opportunity do you think you'll get in 2019 based on the current customer activity?

根據目前的客戶活動，您認為 2019 年您能抓住這個機會多遠？

Yes, thanks for the question.

是的，謝謝你的提問。

So we see Cobalt continuing to be adopted over the next 3, 4 years.

因此，我們預計鈷將在未來 3、4 年繼續被採用。

Just for reference, 1 layer of Cobalt adds about $70 million incremental business.

僅供參考，一層 Cobalt 增加了約 7,000 萬美元的增量業務。

So from where we're at right now, we continue to see adoption.

因此，從我們目前的情況來看，我們繼續看到採用。

It's probably in the $250 million, $300 million range over the next few years in terms of incremental business.

就增量業務而言，未來幾年可能會在 2.5 億至 3 億美元之間。

Our next question comes from Edwin Mok of Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok。

Sorry, my line got dropped in the middle but sorry if this was asked.

抱歉，我的線路在中間掉線了，但如果有人問這個問題，我很抱歉。

But on the prepared remarks, you guys talk about patterning.

但在準備好的發言中，你們談論的是模式。

You guys are growing your patterning business and potentially adding $1 billion over the next 5 years.

你們正在發展你們的圖案業務，並有可能在未來 5 年內增加 10 億美元。

And when we talk to investors, some of them are worried that UV might actually reduce the patterning TAM.

當我們與投資者交談時，他們中的一些人擔心紫外線實際上可能會降低圖案 TAM。

So if it's possible, can you guys provide maybe some examples of why you think your patterning business can grow?

那麼，如果可能的話，你們能提供一些例子來說明為什麼你們認為你們的圖案業務可以成長嗎？

Is it driven by share gain, new processes, new architecture, et cetera?

它是由份額成長、新流程、新架構等驅動的嗎？

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So we have a number of really strong products in the patterning market -- oh I'm sorry, I wasn't on I guess.

因此，我們在圖案市場上有許多非常強大的產品——哦，對不起，我想我沒有參加。

So the -- yes, we have a number of a strong products in the patterning market, the Sym3, Selectra, the CMP business is also growing as more patterning steps are adopted.

因此，是的，我們在圖案市場上擁有許多強大的產品，Sym3、Selectra，隨著更多圖案步驟的採用，CMP 業務也在成長。

We have new deposition capabilities.

我們擁有新的沉積能力。

So our overall market, as you talked about, grew $1 billion over the last few years.

正如您所說，我們的整體市場在過去幾年增長了 10 億美元。

We have a lot of confidence and line of sight to additional $1 billion over the next few years.

我們對未來幾年追加 10 億美元充滿信心和願景。

So if you look at the market overall, about 50% is memory.

所以如果你看整個市場，大約50%是記憶體。

Certainly, our share there is growing a significant amount.

當然，我們在那裡的份額正在大幅增長。

You have trailing geometries, about 25%.

尾隨幾何形狀約佔 25%。

25% is leading foundry and logic.

25% 處於領先的代工和邏輯領域。

And we see in the foundry logic significant traction if we look at our share of patterning in 5-nanometers.

如果我們看看 5 奈米圖案化的份額，我們會發現代工邏輯具有顯著的吸引力。

And our overall TAM in 5 versus 7 goes up something like 25%.

我們在 5 場比賽和 7 場比賽中的整體 TAM 上升了大約 25%。

Our positional share in 5 will also go up and especially in patterning.

我們在第五名中的位置份額也會上升，尤其是在模式方面。

So as multi-patterning gets further adopted and EUV steps are adopted, all of that is incrementally positive for Applied.

因此，隨著多重圖案化的進一步採用和 EUV 步驟的採用，所有這些對應用材料公司來說都是越來越積極的。

EUV steps are replacing positions that Applied really isn't present today.

EUV 的舉措正在取代應用材料公司目前實際上不存在的職位。

So both of those areas, the growth in EUV, the growth in multi-patterning, are positive for Applied.

因此，EUV 的成長和多重圖案化的成長這兩個領域對應用材料公司來說都是正面的。

And the other thing I would say relative to patterning, there are really 2 major areas of focus.

我要說的另一件事是關於圖案，確實有兩個主要關注領域。

One is shrinking features, but the other one is placing features in the right position.

一種是縮小特徵，另一種是將特徵放置在正確的位置。

And if you look from an overall industry perspective, this pattern placement or alignment is a big challenge for customers.

如果從整個行業的角度來看，這種模式放置或對齊對客戶來說是一個巨大的挑戰。

So we have a very good position as some of these new processes are adopted.

因此，隨著其中一些新流程的採用，我們處於非常有利的地位。

And certainly, we have a good line of sight to the future technology nodes.

當然，我們對未來的技術節點有良好的視野。

So for Applied, EUV is positive, our positions are positive and we have good line of sight to that additional growth.

因此，對於應用材料公司來說，EUV 是正面的，我們的立場也是正面的，我們對額外成長有良好的視野。

Thanks, Edwin, for your question.

謝謝埃德溫的提問。

And Dan, would you like to add anything in closing?

丹，您想在結束語中添加一些內容嗎？

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

To me, it comes down to 3 things.

對我來說，這可以歸結為三件事。

First, our markets and, in particular, our company.

首先，我們的市場，特別是我們的公司。

What we continue to see going forward, our business is going to be sustainably larger.

我們繼續看到，未來我們的業務將持續擴大。

It's more diverse, less volatile, less cyclical than it's been in the past.

與過去相比，它更加多樣化、波動性更小、週期性更小。

A couple of proof points we look at.

我們來看幾個證據點。

In my intro, I talked about how we can now do the same level of earnings in a single quarter that we used to do in a full year a short while ago.

在我的介紹中，我談到了我們現在如何能夠在一個季度內實現與不久前全年相同的收益水準。

Something else to think about.

還有其他事情要考慮。

Even with the adjustments in spend that our customers have made this year, the lowest quarter of EPS in 2018 will be higher than any quarter in 2017, which was an all-time record for the company.

即使我們的客戶今年對支出進行了調整，2018 年每股收益最低的季度仍將高於 2017 年任何一個季度，這是該公司的歷史記錄。

Second, 2019, we see continued strength.

其次，2019 年，我們看到了持續的強勢。

The more we talk to both customers and others in the tech ecosystem, the more we believe we're on the beginning of a powerful new wave.

我們與客戶和技術生態系統中的其他人交談得越多，我們就越相信我們正處於強大的新浪潮的開端。

Applied Materials is on the critical path.

應用材料公司正處於關鍵道路上。

Those trends depend on what Applied does best.

這些趨勢取決於應用材料公司最擅長的領域。

Third, 2020 financial model, on track to exceed the targets we have out there.

第三，2020 年的財務模型可望超越我們設定的目標。

What I'd also say is behind the scenes, we're building a pipeline, strong pipeline of new products, new innovations, new opportunities that set us up extremely well in the years beyond.

我還要說的是，在幕後，我們正在建立一條管道，強大的新產品管道、新創新管道、新機會管道，這些管道為我們在未來幾年奠定了良好的基礎。

As Gary said, we've never been better positioned as a company than we are today.

正如加里所說，我們公司的定位從未像今天這樣好。

Lastly, the Citigroup conference is coming up in a few weeks.

最後，花旗集團會議將於幾週後召開。

I look forward to seeing many of you there.

我期待在那裡見到你們中的許多人。

And just let us know if you have any questions.

如果您有任何疑問，請告訴我們。

We want to be helpful.

我們希望提供協助。

We're here to help.

我們隨時為您提供協助。

Just let us know.

請告訴我們。

With that, Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

麥克，我們就這樣結束通話吧。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us.

我們要感謝大家加入我們。

A replay of this call is going to be available on our website by 5 p.m.

本次電話會議的重播將於下午 5 點在我們的網站上提供。

Pacific time today.

今天太平洋時間。

And thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This concludes today's program.

今天的節目到此結束。

You may all disconnect.

你們都可以斷開連線。

Everyone, have a great day.

大家，祝你有美好的一天。