應用材料 (AMAT) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call.

    歡迎參加應用程式材料公司收益電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan.

    我現在想把會議交給麥可·沙利文。

  • Please go ahead, sir.

    請繼續,先生。

  • Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

    Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us.

    下午好,感謝您加入我們。

  • I'm Mike Sullivan, Head of Investor Relations at Applied Materials.

    我是麥克·沙利文,應用材料公司投資者關係主管。

  • We appreciate you joining us for our second quarter of fiscal 2018 earnings call, which is being recorded.

    我們感謝您參加我們正在錄製的 2018 財年第二季財報電話會議。

  • Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

    與我一起的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson;和我們的財務長 Dan Durn。

  • Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's current view of its industries, performance, products, share positions, and business outlook.

    在開始之前,讓我提醒您,今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,包括應用材料公司目前對其行業、業績、產品、股票頭寸和業務前景的看法。

  • These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance.

    這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異,並且不能保證未來績效。

  • Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

    有關這些風險和不確定性的資訊包含在應用程式材料公司最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。

  • All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections and assumptions as of May 17, 2018, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

    所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理階層截至 2018 年 5 月 17 日的估計、預測和假設,應用材料公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

  • Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures.

    今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

  • Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

    GAAP 衡量標準的調節包含在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的調節幻燈片中,這些幻燈片可以在我們網站 Appliedmaterials.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

  • Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement.

    在我們開始之前,我有一個日曆公告。

  • On Tuesday morning, July 10, Applied Materials is sponsoring technology briefings during SEMICON West in San Francisco.

    7 月 10 日星期二上午,應用材料公司將在舊金山舉辦的 SEMICON West 期間贊助技術簡報會。

  • Please save the date and stay tuned for additional details.

    請保存日期並繼續關注更多詳細資訊。

  • And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

    現在我想把電話轉給加里·迪克森。

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Mike.

    謝謝,麥克。

  • Applied's performance in the second fiscal quarter was another all-time record for the company, with revenue up 29% from the same period last year.

    應用材料公司第二財季的業績再創該公司歷史紀錄,營收較去年同期成長 29%。

  • I'd like to congratulate and thank our employees around the world for these outstanding results.

    我要祝賀並感謝我們世界各地的員工取得這些出色的成績。

  • Across the company, we have tremendous momentum.

    在整個公司,我們擁有巨大的動力。

  • Applied has broad exposure to major technology trends and is playing a larger, more valuable role in the electronics ecosystem.

    應用材料公司廣泛關注主要技術趨勢,並在電子生態系統中發揮更大、更有價值的作用。

  • All 3 of our major business segments, semiconductor, display and service, remain on track to deliver strong double-digit growth in fiscal 2018.

    我們的所有 3 個主要業務部門(半導體、顯示器和服務)均預計在 2018 財年實現強勁的兩位數成長。

  • In today's call, I'll provide our perspective on how the major trends driving our markets are evolving.

    在今天的電話會議中,我將提供我們對推動我們市場的主要趨勢如何演變的看法。

  • I'll outline our strategy and how we're translating our broad portfolio of products and capabilities into sustainable growth for Applied.

    我將概述我們的策略以及我們如何將廣泛的產品組合和能力轉化為應用材料公司的可持續成長。

  • Then Dan will provide more details about our financial performance and outlook.

    然後丹將提供有關我們財務業績和前景的更多詳細資訊。

  • During this past quarter, there have been some puts and takes in our customers' near-term investment plans.

    在過去的這個季度,我們客戶的近期投資計畫發生了一些變化。

  • Smartphone sales have been below expectations, particularly for high-end models, and in response, both semiconductor and display suppliers have made adjustments to their capacity planning.

    智慧型手機銷售量一直低於預期,尤其是高階機型,為此,半導體和顯示器供應商都對產能規劃進行了調整。

  • We view the current investment levels as rational and disciplined, particularly in the memory market.

    我們認為目前的投資水準是理性且有紀律的,特別是在記憶體市場。

  • We therefore believe a healthy balance of supply and demand will be maintained.

    因此,我們相信供需將保持健康平衡。

  • Smartphones remain a key long-term driver of both technology and capacity.

    智慧型手機仍然是技術和容量的關鍵長期驅動力。

  • In many ways, smartphones are the ultimate edge device.

    從很多方面來說,智慧型手機都是終極邊緣設備。

  • And as handset makers add more functions and features to their products, we see the content per box continuing to grow.

    隨著手機製造商為其產品添加更多功能和特性,我們看到每個盒子的內容持續成長。

  • For example, recent forecasts from our customers indicate that average yearly growth in mobility content over the next 3 years will be around 35% for NAND and 20% for DRAM.

    例如,我們客戶最近的預測表明,未來 3 年行動內容的年均成長率(NAND)約為 35%,DRAM 約為 20%。

  • In contrast to the weakness in smartphone unit sales we've seen in the first part of this year, there is evidence that emerging drivers of industry growth are picking up pace.

    與我們今年上半年看到的智慧型手機銷售疲軟形成鮮明對比的是,有證據表明行業成長的新興驅動力正在加快步伐。

  • The Internet of Things, big data and artificial intelligence will disrupt and transform virtually every industry and area of the economy over the next decade.

    未來十年,物聯網、大數據和人工智慧將顛覆和改變幾乎所有產業和經濟領域。

  • While we're only at the very beginning of the buildout of the AI big data era, we are already starting to see the positive impact on our markets.

    雖然我們才剛開始建立人工智慧大數據時代,但我們已經開始看到它對我們市場的正面影響。

  • In just the past 6 months, cloud service providers have increased their capital investments significantly.

    在過去的6個月裡,雲端服務供應商大幅增加了資本投資。

  • Looking at the financial reports from the top 7 cloud service providers, we see their CapEx up around 40% this year versus previous expectations of about 30%.

    從前 7 名雲端服務供應商的財務報告來看,我們看到他們今年的資本支出增加了 40% 左右,而先前的預期約為 30%。

  • Also, data center real estate investments made by those companies in 2017 were up more than 250% compared to 2016, which we view as a positive leading indicator of growth.

    此外,這些公司 2017 年的資料中心房地產投資比 2016 年成長了 250% 以上,我們認為這是一個積極的領先成長指標。

  • Data centers are already becoming a much larger consumer of silicon.

    資料中心已經成為更大的矽消費者。

  • For example, the market for server DRAM is currently growing about 75% faster than mobile DRAM, which means it could become the largest segment of the DRAM market in the next 3 to 5 years.

    例如,伺服器 DRAM 市場目前的成長速度比行動 DRAM 快約 75%,這意味著它可能在未來 3 至 5 年內成為 DRAM 市場的最大部分。

  • In addition, the architecture war for AI leadership is heating up, with a steady stream of new high-performance computing hardware coming to market.

    此外,隨著新型高效能運算硬體源源不斷地湧入市場,爭奪人工智慧領導地位的架構之戰正在升溫。

  • At both the server and chip level, we see a major shift from general-purpose computing to new hardware architectures that are customized for specific computing tasks or workloads.

    在伺服器和晶片層面,我們看到從通用運算到針對特定運算任務或工作負載客製化的新硬體架構的重大轉變。

  • This significant technology inflection is fueling new investments in hardware design and new silicon devices, which in turn, are driving significant innovation throughout the ecosystem.

    這項重大技術轉變正在推動對硬體設計和新矽設備的新投資,進而推動整個生態系統的重大創新。

  • I'll now translate these end market trends into an outlook for Applied's served markets.

    現在,我將把這些終端市場趨勢轉化為應用材料公司所服務市場的前景。

  • As I mentioned, we are seeing extremely disciplined investment by our memory customers, which we believe bodes well for healthy market dynamics.

    正如我所提到的,我們看到記憶體客戶的投資非常嚴格,我們相信這對健康的市場動態來說是個好兆頭。

  • In line with our previous forecast, NAND bit demand is expected to grow at about 40% this year.

    與我們先前的預測一致,今年 NAND 位需求預計將成長 40% 左右。

  • While we've reduced our expectations for NAND investments in 2018, we still see spending being similar to last year's high levels.

    雖然我們降低了對 2018 年 NAND 投資的預期,但我們仍然認為支出與去年的高水準相似。

  • Our outlook for DRAM investments has strengthened as customers invest in capacity and technology to meet growing demand for high-performance DRAM used in data centers.

    隨著客戶投資容量和技術以滿足資料中心對高效能 DRAM 不斷增長的需求,我們對 DRAM 投資的前景有所增強。

  • We expect this year's combined investments by foundry and logic customers to be similar to 2017, and we anticipate that spending will be split relatively evenly between leading edge and trailing geometries to serve growing IoT and automotive applications.

    我們預計今年代工和邏輯客戶的綜合投資將與 2017 年相似,並且我們預計支出將在領先和落後的幾何結構之間相對均勻地分配,以服務於不斷增長的物聯網和汽車應用。

  • We also continue to see a steady ramp of spending in China by both multinational and domestic manufacturers, in line with our prior assumptions.

    我們也繼續看到跨國和國內製造商在中國的支出穩定成長,這與我們先前的假設一致。

  • Taking all of these factors into account, we maintain our view that combined wafer fab equipment investments in 2018 and 2019 could be around $100 billion.

    考慮到所有這些因素,我們仍然認為 2018 年和 2019 年晶圓廠設備投資總額可能約為 1,000 億美元。

  • In display, investments in large substrate Gen 10.5 TV capacity remained strong.

    顯示方面,大基板10.5代電視產能投資仍強勁。

  • Adoption of OLED screens in mobile and the ramp of manufacturing capacity are slower than previously expected, primarily due to weakness in high-end smartphone sales.

    OLED 螢幕在行動裝置中的採用和製造產能的成長速度慢於先前的預期,這主要是由於高階智慧型手機銷售疲軟。

  • We view OLED as a compelling technology, and the leading handset makers are committed to making the transition over time.

    我們認為 OLED 是一項引人注目的技術,領先的手機製造商致力於隨著時間的推移實現這一轉變。

  • Compared to LCD, OLED offers significant performance in power advantages, as well as lower cost in high-volume production.

    與 LCD 相比,OLED 在功耗方面具有顯著的優勢,並且在大量生產時成本較低。

  • In addition, next-generation flexible OLED will enable new form factors, such as curved and, ultimately, foldable screens.

    此外,下一代柔性 OLED 將實現新的外形尺寸,例如曲面螢幕以及最終的可折疊螢幕。

  • Applied Materials' vision is to make possible the technology shaping the future, and we have aligned our investments, organization and operating systems to realize this vision.

    應用材料公司的願景是讓科技塑造未來成為可能,我們調整了投資、組織和作業系統來實現這個願景。

  • In many ways, it is the breadth of our capabilities and product portfolio that sets us apart.

    在很多方面,我們的能力和產品組合的廣度使我們與眾不同。

  • We have the broadest exposure to industry trends, and our business is well balanced across a variety of markets and market segments.

    我們對行業趨勢擁有最廣泛的了解,並且我們的業務在各個市場和細分市場之間保持著良好的平衡。

  • In addition, as the industry road maps become increasingly challenging, materials solutions are more critical to deliver the needed improvements in power, performance, area and cost for next-generation devices.

    此外,隨著產業路線圖變得越來越具有挑戰性,材料解決方案對於實現下一代設備所需的功率、性能、面積和成本的改進變得更加重要。

  • Our ability to address these complex challenges with innovative approaches to materials creation, materials removal and materials modification is becoming increasingly valuable.

    我們透過材料創造、材料去除和材料改性的創新方法來應對這些複雜挑戰的能力變得越來越有價值。

  • We also have unique technologies, like e-beam, to measure, understand and inspect new materials and structures.

    我們還擁有電子束等獨特技術來測量、理解和檢查新材料和結構。

  • We're using our breadth to help customers accelerate their road maps.

    我們正在利用我們的廣度來幫助客戶加快他們的路線圖。

  • Shortening the time it takes to bring new devices to market is incredibly valuable, resulting in strong customer pull for materials solutions that go beyond traditional unit process tools.

    縮短將新設備推向市場所需的時間非常有價值,這會導致客戶對超越傳統單元加工工具的材料解決方案產生強烈的吸引力。

  • We're excited about our pipeline, and we'll share more insights into these capabilities later this year.

    我們對我們的管道感到興奮,我們將在今年稍後分享對這些功能的更多見解。

  • In semiconductor, the strength of our technology portfolio has enabled us to outperform the market for 6 consecutive years.

    在半導體領域,我們的技術組合優勢使我們能夠連續六年跑贏市場。

  • Based on our expanding opportunities and the traction of our new products, we expect to grow faster than the market again this year.

    基於我們不斷擴大的機會和新產品的吸引力,我們預計今年的成長速度將再次快於市場。

  • With our R&D priorities aligned to our customers' evolving requirements, it is clear that advancing the industry road map is going to require a combination of: new device architectures, including 3D structures and advanced packaging; new materials; and new ways to shrink chip geometries that address both resolution and placement.

    隨著我們的研發重點與客戶不斷變化的需求保持一致,很明顯,推進產業路線圖將需要以下組合: 新的設備架構,包括 3D 結構和先進封裝;新材料;以及縮小晶片幾何尺寸以解決解析度和佈局問題的新方法。

  • There is significant innovation taking place in all 3 of these areas, and that creates great opportunities for Applied.

    所有這三個領域都在發生重大創新,這為應用材料公司創造了巨大的機會。

  • Even in shrink, our opportunity is growing regardless of the pace of EUV lithography adoption.

    即使在微縮方面,無論 EUV 微影技術的採用速度如何,我們的機會都在成長。

  • The reasons for this include: self-aligned multi-patterning techniques; SADP and SAQP, which are needed in conjunction with EUV lithography to drive the resolution road map; and new materials-enabled patterning approaches, which are being developed as the primary solution for placement errors.

    原因包括: 自對準多重圖案化技術; SADP和SAQP,需要與EUV微影結合來驅動解析度路線圖;以及新材料支援的圖案化方法,這些方法正在開發作為放置錯誤的主要解決方案。

  • Placement errors, or the vertical alignment between the layers of a device, can have a significant impact on device performance and reliability.

    放置錯誤或裝置各層之間的垂直對齊可能會對裝置性能和可靠性產生重大影響。

  • Beyond equipment, we continue to invest in new service products and organizational capabilities to create value for our customers.

    除了設備之外,我們也持續投資新的服務產品和組織能力,為客戶創造價值。

  • Our service business delivered all-time record performance this quarter, with revenues up 30% relative to the same period last year.

    我們的服務業務本季的業績創下歷史新高,營收較去年同期成長 30%。

  • Over the longer term, we're confident that we can sustain annual service growth of at least 15%, driven by a growing installed base, a larger portion of those tools under long-term service agreements, and new service products that help customers shorten ramp times, improve device performance and yield and optimize operating costs.

    從長遠來看,我們有信心能夠維持至少 15% 的年度服務增長,這得益於不斷增長的安裝基礎、長期服務協議下的大部分工具以及幫助客戶縮短服務週期的新服務產品。提高設備性能和產量並優化營運成本。

  • In display, since 2012, we've grown revenues at an average rate of 25% per year.

    據顯示,自 2012 年以來,我們的收入平均每年增長 25%。

  • And in 2018, we remain on track to grow by more than 30%.

    2018 年,我們仍有望實現 30% 以上的成長。

  • Based on recent revisions to timing of customers' OLED plans, our early view of 2019 is that our revenue will be lower than this year, although still nicely up from 2017.

    根據最近對客戶 OLED 規劃時間的修改,我們對 2019 年的初步看法是,我們的收入將低於今年,但仍較 2017 年有很大增長。

  • Overall, we maintain a positive outlook for the business as the unique long-term growth driver for Applied.

    總體而言,我們對該業務保持積極的前景,將其視為應用材料公司獨特的長期成長動力。

  • Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'll quickly summarize.

    在將電話轉給丹之前,我將快速總結一下。

  • While we've seen some recent changes in customers' near-term investment plans, our markets remain strong and healthy, with long-term demand drivers firmly in place.

    雖然我們看到客戶的近期投資計劃最近發生了一些變化,但我們的市場仍然強勁且健康,長期需求驅動因素牢固存在。

  • We maintain our view that wafer fab equipment spending for 2018 and 2019 combined could be $100 billion.

    我們維持 2018 年和 2019 年晶圓廠設備支出總計可能達到 1,000 億美元的觀點。

  • Applied is outperforming our served market and in fiscal 2018, we expect to deliver strong double-digit growth in semi, display and services.

    應用材料公司的表現優於我們所服務的市場,我們預計 2018 財年半導體、顯示器和服務領域將實現兩位數的強勁成長。

  • As we look ahead, we see emerging technology trends that play to Applied's breadth.

    展望未來,我們看到新興的技術趨勢將發揮應用材料公司的廣度。

  • And we're excited about our expanding role of bringing new devices to market.

    我們對將新設備推向市場的作用不斷擴大感到興奮。

  • Now Dan will give his perspective on our performance and outlook.

    現在丹將發表他對我們的表現和前景的看法。

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Gary.

    謝謝,加里。

  • In Q2, Applied set new performance records across a variety of operating and financial metrics.

    第二季度,應用材料公司在各種營運和財務指標上創下了新的業績記錄。

  • Our manufacturing and operations' teams shipped a record number of 300-millimeter systems while hitting key goals for quality and on-time delivery.

    我們的製造和營運團隊交付了創紀錄數量的 300 毫米系統,同時實現了品質和按時交付的關鍵目標。

  • Company revenue was an all-time high, up 29% year-over-year.

    公司營收創歷史新高,較去年同期成長29%。

  • Our semi equipment and services businesses both set revenue records, and we exceeded our outlook in display.

    我們的半設備和服務業務均創下了收入記錄,並且超出了我們的預期。

  • We maintained strong gross margins, even as our service and display businesses outgrew semi.

    儘管我們的服務和顯示業務成長超過了半成品業務,但我們仍然保持了強勁的毛利率。

  • We grew non-GAAP operating profit by 40% year-over-year to $1.38 billion, a new record.

    我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤年增 40%,達到 13.8 億美元,創下新紀錄。

  • And we continue to become more efficient.

    我們繼續變得更有效率。

  • We reduced our non-GAAP OpEx to sales ratio to 16.6%, the lowest in our history.

    我們將非 GAAP 營運支出與銷售額的比率降至 16.6%,這是我們歷史上的最低水準。

  • And we did this by growing, not cutting.

    我們透過種植而不是砍伐來做到這一點。

  • In fact, we're investing more in R&D than at any time in our history to support our customers with new materials and innovative solutions.

    事實上,我們在研發方面的投資比歷史上任何時候都多,以透過新材料和創新解決方案為客戶提供支援。

  • This makes Applied a uniquely vulnerable partner in driving the road map for continued high-performance, low-power and low cost.

    這使得應用材料公司成為推動持續高效能、低功耗和低成本路線圖的獨特脆弱合作夥伴。

  • We will continue to invest with discipline and be laser focused on improving our execution and financial results.

    我們將繼續嚴格投資,並專注於提高我們的執行力和財務表現。

  • I believe Applied's strong performance is also attributable to better industry dynamics.

    我相信應用材料公司的強勁表現也歸功於更好的產業動態。

  • We see growing evidence that our markets are larger and less variable.

    我們看到越來越多的證據表明我們的市場更大且變化更小。

  • We expect strong semiconductor equipment spending in 2018 and 2019, despite weakness in the high-end segment of the smartphone market, which is still the single biggest driver of semiconductor revenue.

    儘管智慧型手機市場高端市場疲軟,但我們預計 2018 年和 2019 年半導體設備支出將強勁,而智慧型手機市場仍是半導體收入的最大推動力。

  • In the past, weakness within the largest end product category might have caused a significant correction, particularly in memory.

    過去,最大的終端產品類別的疲軟可能會導致重大調整,特別是在記憶體領域。

  • But Applied's results and outlook remained strong.

    但應用材料公司的業績和前景依然強勁。

  • This outcome reinforces our belief in 3 positive factors: One, there are more demand drivers than ever before.

    這項結果強化了我們對三個正面因素的信念:第一,需求驅動因素比以往任何時候都多。

  • Today, the PC market...

    如今,個人電腦市場...

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • is growing.

    在成長。

  • Smartphones comes with a wide range of price points to suit more consumers around the world, and the new data economy is just beginning to take shape.

    智慧型手機具有多種價位,可以滿足全球更多消費者的需求,而新的數據經濟才剛開始形成。

  • Gary mentioned the strength in data center...

    加里提到了資料中心的實力...

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • leading indicator for us.

    我們的領先指標。

  • I personally believe the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence are business critical, not consumer discretionary.

    我個人認為物聯網和人工智慧對商業至關重要,而不是消費者可自由支配的。

  • Second, capital intensity is higher.

    二是資金密集度較高。

  • And third, our customers are healthy and adding capacity in a disciplined manner to meet demand where it is needed the most.

    第三,我們的客戶狀況良好,並以嚴格的方式增加產能,以滿足最需要的需求。

  • In fact, while high-end smartphone units were weaker than expected, lower NAND pricing is creating additional demand for solid state drives.

    事實上,雖然高階智慧型手機銷售低於預期,但 NAND 定價較低正在創造對固態硬碟的額外需求。

  • In a world where data grows exponentially, it will take many years for our customers to convert the storage market from magnetic technology to semiconductors.

    在數據呈指數增長的世界中,我們的客戶需要很多年才能將儲存市場從磁性技術轉向半導體。

  • In this environment, Applied's breadth is a unique advantage.

    在這種環境下,應用材料公司的廣泛性是一個獨特的優勢。

  • In semiconductor systems, Gary described how we are combining our technologies to help customers in new ways.

    在半導體系統方面,Gary 描述了我們如何結合我們的技術以新的方式幫助客戶。

  • You'll see more evidence of this in the months ahead.

    在接下來的幾個月裡,您將看到更多這方面的證據。

  • Applied is strong across memory, foundry and logic, and we're growing in memory, where our leadership products are being used to improve performance and reduce power consumption.

    應用材料公司在記憶體、代工和邏輯領域都很強大,我們在記憶體領域不斷發展,我們的領先產品被用來提高效能和降低功耗。

  • Technologies like high-k/metal gate were pioneered in the logic market and are now being adopted in DRAM.

    高 k/金屬閘極等技術是邏輯市場的先驅,目前正在 DRAM 中採用。

  • Many of our new multi-patterning wins are also in DRAM.

    我們的許多新的多重圖案勝利也是在 DRAM 中取得的。

  • Today, we are also growing our semi business beyond the opportunity set of the most advanced logic and memory nodes.

    如今,我們的半成品業務也不斷發展,超越了最先進的邏輯和儲存節點的機會集。

  • Our 200-millimeter systems and our [trailing] node 300-millimeter systems serve many hundreds of end customers in diverse industries, such as automotive and industrial.

    我們的 200 毫米系統和[尾隨]節點 300 毫米系統為汽車和工業等不同行業的數百個最終客戶提供服務。

  • Our 200-millimeter systems revenue should be up over 20% this year.

    今年我們的 200 毫米系統收入應該會成長 20% 以上。

  • In fact, we are now building brand-new systems to keep up with the demand for the billions of sensors in other low-cost devices needed in the Internet of Things, advanced automotive applications and Industry 4.0.

    事實上,我們現在正在建立全新的系統,以滿足物聯網、先進汽車應用和工業 4.0 所需的其他低成本設備中數十億個感測器的需求。

  • These systems' shipments are also helping us diversify in service, which gives us growth, consistent revenue and excellent cash flow.

    這些系統的出貨量也幫助我們實現服務多元化,從而為我們帶來成長、穩定的收入和良好的現金流。

  • And Applied has a unique opportunity in display.

    應用材料公司擁有獨特的展示機會。

  • As Gary discussed, while the transition to OLED smartphones will take some additional time, our overall display business is diverse and remains very strong.

    正如 Gary 所討論的,雖然向 OLED 智慧型手機的過渡需要一些額外的時間,但我們的整體顯示業務是多元化的,並且仍然非常強勁。

  • As a company, we've never had such a broad set of growth drivers, and we have more in the pipeline.

    作為一家公司,我們從未擁有過如此廣泛的成長動力,而且我們有更多的動力正在醞釀中。

  • As a result, our fiscal year revenue could be up by more than 20% in 2018, and our non-GAAP EPS could be up over 40%.

    因此,2018 年我們的財年營收可能成長 20% 以上,非 GAAP 每股盈餘可能成長 40% 以上。

  • We're well on track to our goal of achieving over $5 in non-GAAP EPS by 2020.

    我們正在順利實現到 2020 年實現非 GAAP 每股收益超過 5 美元的目標。

  • In short, we have strong conviction in our markets, our strategy, our technology pipeline and our opportunity to deliver growth over the long run, even when equity markets are volatile in the short run.

    簡而言之,我們對我們的市場、我們的策略、我們的技術管道以及我們實現長期成長的機會抱有堅定的信念,即使股市短期內波動也是如此。

  • Consistent with our conviction, we used $2.5 billion during the quarter to repurchase 44 million shares of our stock or about 4% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the period.

    與我們的信念一致,我們在本季使用了 25 億美元回購了 4,400 萬股股票,約佔期初已發行股票的 4%。

  • Over the past 4 quarters, our buybacks were equivalent to 7% of the shares outstanding.

    在過去的 4 個季度中,我們回購了相當於已發行股票的 7%。

  • At the same time, we've maintained a very strong balance sheet.

    同時,我們保持了非常強勁的資產負債表。

  • We plan to increase our CapEx by about $400 million this year.

    我們計劃今年將資本支出增加約 4 億美元。

  • The majority of the increase will be used to expand our R&D capabilities and manufacturing capacity.

    增加的大部分資金將用於擴大我們的研發能力和製造能力。

  • Now I'll comment on our financial execution in Q2.

    現在我將評論我們第二季的財務執行情況。

  • We delivered our ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth in both revenue and non-GAAP EPS, which was $1.22 or $1.19 minus the benefit of a lower tax rate and share count.

    我們的營收和非 GAAP 每股盈餘連續第九個季度實現同比增長,扣除較低稅率和股票數量帶來的好處後,每股收益為 1.22 美元或 1.19 美元。

  • On a year-over-year non-GAAP basis, we increased gross margin by 40 basis points, increased operating margin by 240 basis points and grew EPS by 54%.

    以非 GAAP 基準計算,我們的毛利率提高了 40 個基點,營業利潤率提高了 240 個基點,每股收益增加了 54%。

  • Turning to the segments.

    轉向細分市場。

  • We delivered record revenue and operating profit in both semi equipment and services.

    我們在半設備和服務方面都實現了創紀錄的收入和營業利潤。

  • We grew semi equipment revenue by 25% year-over-year.

    我們的半設備營收年增 25%。

  • Services revenue was up 30% and above our expectation, driven by strong spare parts demand, along with new long-term service agreements and renewals.

    在強勁的備件需求以及新的長期服務協議和續約的推動下,服務收入成長了 30%,超出了我們的預期。

  • In display, we grew revenue by 53% year-over-year and grew non-GAAP operating margin by 620 basis points year-over-year.

    具體來看,我們的營收年增 53%,非 GAAP 營運利潤率年增 620 個基點。

  • We expect display revenue to be higher in our second half, thanks to our balanced exposure to inflections in both the TV and mobile markets.

    由於我們在電視和行動市場的變化中保持平衡,我們預計下半年顯示器收入將會更高。

  • Now I'll share our business outlook for Q3 as compared to the same period last year.

    現在我將分享我們第三季與去年同期相比的業務展望。

  • We expect overall revenue to be in the range of $4.33 billion to $4.53 billion, the midpoint would be up by about 18% year-over-year.

    我們預計整體營收將在 43.3 億美元至 45.3 億美元之間,中位數將年增約 18%。

  • We expect semiconductor systems revenue to grow about 7%.

    我們預計半導體系統收入將成長約 7%。

  • Our services revenue should increase by about 23%.

    我們的服務收入應該會成長23%左右。

  • Our display revenue should grow by about 75%.

    我們的顯示器收入應該會成長 75% 左右。

  • Our non-GAAP gross margin should be around 46.5%.

    我們的非 GAAP 毛利率應該在 46.5% 左右。

  • Non-GAAP operating expenses should be in the range of $770 million, plus or minus $10 million.

    非 GAAP 營運費用應在 7.7 億美元上下浮動 1,000 萬美元之間。

  • And we expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $1.17, plus or minus $0.04.

    我們預計非 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 1.17 美元上下浮動 0.04 美元之間。

  • The midpoint of the range is up nearly 36%.

    該區間的中點上漲了近 36%。

  • Finally, I'll add some additional color to help you with your models for the full fiscal year, in which overall company revenue could be up around 22%.

    最後,我將添加一些額外的顏色來幫助您建立整個財年的模型,其中公司整體收入可能會增加 22% 左右。

  • The following 4 metrics are likely to be approximately flat sequentially from Q3 to Q4: services revenue; display revenue; non-GAAP gross margin; and non-GAAP OpEx.

    從第三季到第四季,以下 4 個指標可能大致持平: 服務收入;顯示收入;非公認會計準則毛利率;和非公認會計準則營運支出。

  • And our Semiconductor systems revenue is likely to be up sequentially in Q4.

    我們的半導體系統收入可能會在第四季度連續成長。

  • And now I'll turn the call back to Mike to start the Q&A.

    現在我將把電話轉回給麥克開始問答。

  • Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

    Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

  • Thanks, Dan.

    謝謝,丹。

  • (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

    (操作員指示)操作員,我們開始吧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question is from CJ Muse with Evercore ISI.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 CJ Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess a question for me is considering that the weakness you're seeing in the high-end smartphone side, has your outlook for total WFE low double-digit growth in calendar '18 changed, could you discuss that?

    我想我面臨的一個問題是,考慮到您在高階智慧型手機方面看到的弱點,您對 18 年 WFE 總低兩位數成長的前景是否發生了變化,您能討論一下嗎?

  • And then, how should we think about the $100 million combined WFE outlook that you provided?

    然後,我們應該如何看待您提供的 1 億美元的 WFE 綜合前景?

  • Is that guide or just more reflective of your view that spending will remain sustainable -- strong into next year?

    該指南是否更能反映您的觀點,即明年支出將保持強勁—強勁?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, CJ.

    謝謝,CJ。

  • I think it's a reflection of our conviction in our end markets, and sustainably strong.

    我認為這反映了我們對終端市場的堅定信念,並且持續強勁。

  • We feel really good about the end markets, like Gary said, $100 billion in 2018 and 2019, and we're seeing strength across all device types.

    正如加里所說,我們對終端市場感覺非常好,2018 年和 2019 年將達到 1000 億美元,而且我們看到所有設備類型的實力。

  • The markets are more balanced today than they've probably ever been.

    今天的市場比以往任何時候都更加平衡。

  • 2017 is a very strong year.

    2017年是非常強勁的一年。

  • 2018 will be up over '17, and we see the fundamentals into '19 being strong.

    2018 年將比 17 年有所成長,我們看到 19 年的基本面強勁。

  • So we still feel good about the markets, the performance and the outlook into 2019.

    因此,我們對 2019 年的市場、表現和前景仍然感覺良好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Atif Malik with Citigroup.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Atif Malik。

  • Atif Malik - VP and Semiconductor Capital Equipment & Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

    Atif Malik - VP and Semiconductor Capital Equipment & Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

  • Can you talk about the mix of LCD versus OLED displays in the reported quarter?

    能談談本季 LCD 顯示器與 OLED 顯示器的組合嗎?

  • And with your expectations for display being down in 2019, are you expecting the TV market to be down or is it more OLED?

    隨著您對 2019 年顯示器的預期下降,您預計電視市場會下降還是 OLED 市場會下降?

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • So let me give some color on display overall.

    讓我給整體一些顏色。

  • Display is a really good adjacent market for Applied.

    對於應用材料公司來說,顯示器是一個非常好的鄰近市場。

  • We average 25% growth, annual growth between 2012 and 2017, and we're still on track to greater than 30% revenue growth in 2018.

    2012 年至 2017 年間,我們的年平均成長率為 25%,且 2018 年我們仍有望實現超過 30% 的營收成長。

  • Based on the customer plans, our view of 2019 is for revenue to be down around 15% or 20%.

    根據客戶計劃,我們預計 2019 年營收將下降 15% 或 20% 左右。

  • When we look at mobile and TV, in '18, we see investment balanced between mobile and TV; '19, more weighted towards TV.

    當我們看行動和電視時,18年,我們看到行動和電視之間的投資平衡; 19 年,更注重電視。

  • And in TV, the adoption of larger screens is driving the market.

    在電視領域,更大螢幕的採用正在推動市場發展。

  • If you look at a Gen 10.5 factory versus a Gen 8.5 factory, you can produce 8 65-inch televisions versus 3 65-inch televisions.

    如果你比較一下 10.5 代工廠和 8.5 代工廠,你可以生產 8 台 65 吋電視,而不是 3 台 65 吋電視。

  • So there's really compelling value proposition there.

    所以那裡確實有令人信服的價值主張。

  • We're still tracking 13 Gen 10.5 projects.

    我們仍在追蹤 13 個 Gen 10.5 項目​​。

  • There's a long lead time for these factories, and customers are still on track with these investments.

    這些工廠的交貨時間很長,而客戶的這些投資仍處於正軌。

  • In OLED, it is slower than we previously expected.

    在OLED方面,它比我們之前預期的要慢。

  • We're still tracking 23 fabs.

    我們仍在追蹤 23 家晶圓廠。

  • That timing has extended out from around 2021 to 2023.

    該時間已從 2021 年左右延長至 2023 年。

  • But the transition to OLED display is still compelling, and leading handset makers are still committed to make the transition.

    但向 OLED 顯示器的過渡仍然引人注目,領先的手機製造商仍然致力於實現過渡。

  • If you look at rigid OLED, you have better performance, better form factor, lower costs, entitlement in high-volume manufacturing, and the ability to go to flexible OLED for curved and, eventually, foldable screens.

    如果你考慮剛性 OLED,你會發現它具有更好的性能、更好的外形尺寸、更低的成本、大批量製造的權利,並且能夠採用柔性 OLED 來生產彎曲螢幕,並最終實現可折疊螢幕。

  • So we've had great performance in growth in display over the last few years.

    因此,過去幾年我們在顯示成長方面取得了出色的表現。

  • With future technology inflection as our pipeline of new capabilities, we continue to see display as a really good growth opportunity for Applied.

    隨著未來技術的發展成為我們新能力的管道,我們繼續將顯示技術視為應用材料公司的一個非常好的成長機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • Gary, you mentioned in your prepared remarks how the industry has become disciplined in the way it's managing its investments.

    加里,您在準備好的演講中提到了該行業如何在管理投資方面變得自律。

  • And I think maybe you could elaborate on that, and tell us what happened in the first half of the -- in the first quarter of the year.

    我想也許你可以詳細說明這一點,並告訴我們上半年(今年第一季)發生了什麼。

  • So demand in smartphones came in weaker than expected.

    因此智慧型手機的需求弱於預期。

  • We are in a weak smartphone environment, that's fairly new.

    我們正處於一個薄弱的智慧型手機環境中,這是相當新的。

  • So my question is, is this new discipline, does that mean that your clients have been able to adapt their plans very rapidly, and they've adapted plans already?

    所以我的問題是,這個新規則是否意味著您的客戶已經能夠非常迅速地調整他們的計劃,並且他們已經調整了計劃?

  • Although that actually means that the units' growth of smartphone as a driver for the industry as a whole is now so small and lost into other drivers, like content increase and other markets like data center?

    儘管這實際上意味著智慧型手機作為整個行業驅動力的成長現在如此之小,並且迷失於其他驅動力,例如內容增加和資料中心等其他市場?

  • And this is not actually -- that's not a moving that really affects investment plans in today's world.

    這其實並不是一個真正影響當今世界投資計畫的舉措。

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • So if we take a look at the memory market as an illustration of the point around discipline, we take a look at the demand.

    因此,如果我們以記憶體市場為例來說明紀律,我們就會看看需求。

  • End market demand is strong, the macro drivers, we keep talking about artificial intelligence, data economy, are real, they're playing out and it's driving demand for silicon.

    終端市場需求強勁,宏觀驅動因素,我們一直在談論人工智慧、數據經濟,都是真實存在的,它們正在發揮作用,推動了對矽的需求。

  • We see that demand in the memory market.

    我們看到了記憶體市場的需求。

  • Customers are incredibly healthy.

    顧客非常健康。

  • They're make -- they're investing a lot, but they're also making a lot.

    他們是成功的——他們投資了很多,但他們也賺了很多。

  • And in fact, WFE as a percent of EBITDA is down 50% from 2012 to today.

    事實上,從 2012 年至今,WFE 佔 EBITDA 的百分比下降了 50%。

  • And the environment is characterized by demand-led investments.

    環境的特徵是投資以需求為主導。

  • The market is showing incredible discipline.

    市場正在表現出令人難以置信的紀律。

  • In DRAM, 2017, supply bit growth was about 20%.

    2017年DRAM供應位成長約20%。

  • Demand bit growth in 2017 was slightly more than that.

    2017 年的需求位成長略高於此。

  • In 2018, we expect supply and demand in the DRAM market to be balanced at about 20% growth each.

    2018年,我們預期DRAM市場供需將維持平衡,各成長20%左右。

  • In NAND, it's a similar story.

    在 NAND 中,情況也類似。

  • In 2017, supply bit growth was about 30% to 35%.

    2017年,供應位成長約為30%至35%。

  • And 2017's demand bit growth was about 35% to 40%.

    而2017年的需求位成長約為35%至40%。

  • In 2018, again, we see a balanced market from a supply-demand perspective, both at about 40%.

    2018年,我們再次從供需角度看到市場平衡,均約40%。

  • When we look at what's happening in China, we're seeing modest and disciplined growth in China.

    當我們觀察中國正在發生的事情時,我們看到中國正在溫和而有紀律地成長。

  • China is emerging as a spender.

    中國正在成為消費大國。

  • Their strategic intent is clear, and the financial resources they have are clear.

    他們的戰略意圖明確,擁有的財力也明確。

  • And based on our dialogue, we think the expectations with those customers are realistic.

    根據我們的對話,我們認為這些客戶的期望是現實的。

  • They're being pragmatic.

    他們很務實。

  • Capacity additions to date are modest.

    迄今為止,產能增加幅度不大。

  • And when we take all of this into account, we have confidence in this region in the long run.

    當我們考慮到所有這些時,從長遠來看,我們對該地區充滿信心。

  • So across multiple markets, multiple geographies, we're seeing a very disciplined environment play out.

    因此,在多個市場、多個地區,我們看到了一個非常嚴格的環境。

  • And as we take a step back from that environment, 2017 was a great year in WFE.

    當我們從這種環境中退一步時,2017 年對 WFE 來說是偉大的一年。

  • 2018 will be up over 2017.

    2018年將比2017年有所成長。

  • As Gary said, could be $100 billion between '18 and '19, so we're seeing strength across all device types, customers are healthy and they're acting in a disciplined manner.

    正如加里所說,18 年到 19 年之間可能會達到 1000 億美元,因此我們看到所有設備類型的實力,客戶都很健康,而且他們的行為方式也很有紀律。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • So the commentary on memory.

    所以對記憶的評論。

  • So you see a balanced supply-demand outlook for DRAM.

    因此,您會看到 DRAM 的供需前景趨於平衡。

  • I think industry capacity entering this year was about 1.1 million wafer starts per month.

    我認為今年進入的產業產能約為每月 110 萬片晶圓開工。

  • But as you guys know, the DRAM suppliers are losing effective capacity, like every time they do a technology migration, I think, something to the tune of like 15% capacity loss.

    但正如你們所知,DRAM 供應商正在失去有效產能,就像每次他們進行技術遷移時一樣,我認為,大約是 15% 的產能損失。

  • And then bits per wafer is also going down every time they do technology migration.

    每次進行技術遷移時,每晶圓的位數也會下降。

  • So given what you're seeing, what do you think we end the year, as it relates to total DRAM capacity?

    那麼,鑑於您所看到的情況,您認為我們今年結束時會發生什麼,因為它與 DRAM 總容量有關?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • If we go back to 2016, it was 1.1 million wafer starts per month.

    如果我們回到 2016 年,每月晶圓產量為 110 萬片。

  • And probably a handful of years before that, it was 1.1 million wafer starts per month.

    可能在此之前的幾年,每月晶圓啟動量為 110 萬片。

  • In 2017, because of exactly the dynamic you talked about, which is we're getting less bit growth out of shrinks, and the shrinks are happening at a less frequent interval, we saw more capacity adds in the DRAM market.

    2017 年,正是由於您所談到的動態,即我們從微縮中獲得的位元增長越來越少,而且微縮發生的頻率也越來越低,我們看到 DRAM 市場的容量增加了更多。

  • So it rounded to 1.2 million wafer starts per month exiting 2017.

    因此,從 2017 年開始,每月晶圓開工數量四捨五入為 120 萬片。

  • I think it's too early to call where we end up in 2018, but we definitely see customers struggling to drive bit growth from shrinks alone, factory output when you shrink, because the process is more complex, goes down, and greenfield adds are being just added to keep the supply demand in balance, driving about a 20% bit supply growth, in line with bit demand growth.

    我認為現在判斷 2018 年的最終結果還為時過早,但我們確實看到客戶正在努力僅通過收縮來推動位增長,收縮時工廠產量會下降,因為流程更加複雜,會下降,而綠地增加只是添加以維持供需平衡,推動比特供應成長約20%,與比特需求成長一致。

  • So too early to call it, but it still looks like a healthy market acting with discipline.

    現在說這還為時過早,但它看起來仍然是一個遵守紀律的健康市場。

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, one other thing I'd like to add is that in DRAM, we're going to see very strong growth in revenue in 2018, much faster than what we project for the market.

    是的,我想補充的另一件事是,在 DRAM 領域,我們將在 2018 年看到非常強勁的收入成長,比我們對市場的預測要快得多。

  • The devices are changing, they become more logic-like in the periphery, similar to 28-nanometer foundry steps.

    設備正在發生變化,它們的外圍變得更加邏輯化,類似於 28 奈米鑄造步驟。

  • We're also gaining in patterning new wins where we never had positions.

    我們還在我們從未擁有過的位置上贏得了新的勝利。

  • So especially in DRAM, we see very strong growth for Applied in 2018 and beyond.

    因此,特別是在 DRAM 領域,我們看到應用材料公司在 2018 年及以後的成長非常強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Romit Shah。

  • Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director

    Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director

  • If I heard you correctly, Dan, you guys are reiterating your 2020 target.

    如果我沒聽錯的話,丹,你們正在重申你們 2020 年的目標。

  • And -- but at the same time, you're lowering your outlook for display.

    但同時,你降低了對展示的期望。

  • I mean, relative to what The Street was forecasting, it's about -- it looks like it's about a $600 million swing in display revenue guidance, relative to forecast.

    我的意思是,相對於《華爾街日報》的預測,顯示器收入指引與預測相比大約有 6 億美元的波動。

  • So can you help us reconcile their reiteration of the 2020 target versus the lower guidance for display?

    那麼,您能否幫助我們協調他們重申的 2020 年目標與較低的展示指導?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Romit.

    謝謝,羅米特。

  • So look, the business is performing extremely well.

    所以看,該業務的表現非常好。

  • Q2 is a record quarter, 2018 is going to be a record year for the company.

    第二季度是創紀錄的季度,2018 年將是該公司創紀錄的一年。

  • We've got more pipeline opportunities, new products that are going to be introduced, we're going to be announcing them in the near term, the business is performing well and we're driving good performance.

    我們有更多的管道機會,即將推出的新產品,我們將在短期內宣布它們,業務表現良好,我們正在推動良好的業績。

  • We are well on our track to hitting over $5 of EPS by 2020.

    我們預計在 2020 年實現每股收益超過 5 美元。

  • How that profiles across the business?

    整個企業的情況如何?

  • We're not going to update the long-term model on this call, we'll do that at our Analyst Day later this fall.

    我們不會在這次電話會議上更新長期模型,我們將在今年秋天晚些時候的分析師日上更新。

  • But at the core, is a business that's performing well, with a lot of conviction around hitting that long-term target of $5 of EPS -- over $5 dollars of EPS by 2020.

    但其核心是業務表現良好,對於實現每股收益 5 美元的長期目標充滿信心——到 2020 年每股收益超過 5 美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提摩西·阿庫裡。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • I wanted to follow-up on this $100 billion over this year and next year.

    我想在今年和明年跟進這 1000 億美元。

  • And it sounds like the baseline for this year that you guys are talking about, is it like in low 50s, because you're saying up double digits off of like a $47 billion number.

    這聽起來像是你們談論的今年的基線,是否像 50 多歲左右,因為你們說的是 470 億美元的數字,增長了兩位數。

  • So that would imply that it's down like $5 billion to $6 billion next year.

    因此,這意味著明年的金額將減少 50 億至 60 億美元。

  • I know that, that's not guidance, and you could just as easily probably have raised it to $105 billion or something like that.

    我知道,這不是指導,你可以輕鬆地將其提高到 1050 億美元或類似的數字。

  • But I'm a little surprised that the number's not a bit higher because of what's happening in China.

    但令我有點驚訝的是,由於中國發生的事情,這個數字並沒有更高一點。

  • So I guess my question is, A, like what's going to decline next year if that's the -- if that's what you're trying to imply; and B, can you talk about the ramp in China now we're shipping into 3 projects in China and Gary, sort of how you think that those ramp through this year and next year?

    所以我想我的問題是,A,如果明年會下降,如果這就是你想要暗示的; B,您能談談在中國的發展嗎? 現在我們正在向中國和加里的 3 個項目發貨,您認為這些項目今年和明年的發展情況如何?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, so a couple of things.

    是的,有幾件事。

  • First of all, thanks for the question.

    首先,感謝您的提問。

  • I don't think we're providing a specific guide on 2018 and 2019.

    我認為我們不會提供 2018 年和 2019 年的具體指南。

  • It's an indication of strength and follow-through.

    這是力量和後續行動的標誌。

  • And at the core of that, we feel really good about the end markets.

    最核心的是,我們對終端市場感覺非常好。

  • Like Gary said, $100 billion, '18 and '19.

    就像加里說的,1000 億美元,'18 和 '19。

  • We see strength across all device types.

    我們看到了所有設備類型的優勢。

  • It's too early to tell today exactly how 2018 profiles, first half, second half, full year, and how 2019 profiles.

    現在要確切判斷 2018 年、上半年、下半年、全年以及 2019 年的情況還為時過早。

  • But we've got a lot of conviction and confidence heading into 2019.

    但我們對 2019 年充滿信心。

  • There's a number of reasons at the core of it.

    其核心有許多原因。

  • We're talking about the macro trends, they're real, they're having a real impact.

    我們談論的是宏觀趨勢,它們是真實的,它們正在產生真正的影響。

  • Demand for silicon is up.

    對矽的需求上升。

  • Second, capital intensity is up across the board, and that's all device types.

    其次,資本密集度全面上升,而且是所有設備類型。

  • Markets are balanced, we're seeing strength across all 4 device types.

    市場是平衡的,我們看到所有 4 種設備類型都表現強勁。

  • We take a step back, NAND has got a lot of publicity of late.

    我們退後一步,NAND 最近得到了很多宣傳。

  • When we end 2018, we're going to see something very similar in the NAND market to 2017, which was an all-time high.

    當 2018 年結束時,我們將看到 NAND 市場與 2017 年非常相似的情況,2017 年創下了歷史新高。

  • Taking a step back from the near-term noise, this is an incredibly strong market.

    拋開近期的噪音不談,這是一個異常強勁的市場。

  • Customers, again, for customers continue to be healthy, they're profitable, they're behaving in a disciplined manner.

    再說一次,客戶,因為客戶繼續保持健康,他們有利可圖,他們的行為方式也很有紀律。

  • And again, we're seeing the right kind of signals out of China that indicate long-term stability, health and being a meaningful driver of growth going forward.

    我們再次看到中國發出了正確的訊號,顯示中國長期穩定、健康,並成為未來成長的有意義的驅動力。

  • So too early to call exactly how it profiles, but we've got a lot of strength and conviction about how the outlook and fundamentals look into 2019.

    現在判斷具體情況還為時過早,但我們對 2019 年的前景和基本面有很大的信心和信心。

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Tim, I can give maybe a little bit more color also on China.

    提姆,我也許還可以對中國提供更多的色彩。

  • So 2018's going to be a great year for Applied in China.

    因此,2018 年對於應用材料公司在中國來說將是偉大的一年。

  • We have a very strong position in semi, service, display.

    我們在半成品、服務、展示方面擁有非常強大的地位。

  • And we anticipate that we're going to grow faster than the market there.

    我們預計我們的成長速度將超過那裡的市場。

  • '18 is pretty balanced between domestic and global companies from a revenue perspective.

    從收入角度來看,18 年國內和跨國公司之間相當平衡。

  • Domestic China is higher on foundry logic.

    中國國內在代工邏輯上較高。

  • Global is higher on memory.

    Global 的記憶體更高。

  • But overall, we're going to have a great year there in 2018.

    但總的來說,我們將在 2018 年度過美好的一年。

  • As Dan said, we believe the investments are rational and will continue.

    正如丹所說,我們相信這些投資是理性的,並且將繼續下去。

  • And this is, long term, a great growth opportunity for Applied.

    從長遠來看,這對應用材料公司來說是一個巨大的成長機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Farhan Ahmad with Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Farhan Ahmad。

  • Farhan Ahmad - VP and Senior Analyst for Semiconductor Capital Equipment sector

    Farhan Ahmad - VP and Senior Analyst for Semiconductor Capital Equipment sector

  • My first question is regarding the comment that you had on 2018, 2019 WFE at $100 billion plus.

    我的第一個問題是關於您對 2018 年、2019 年 WFE 超過 1000 億美元的評論。

  • If I look at the trends for the last several years, '14, '15 WFE combined was $70 billion; '16, '17 was $90 billion.

    如果我看一下過去幾年的趨勢,'14、'15 WFE 總計為 700 億美元; '16、'17 是 900 億美元。

  • '18, '19, you were saying $100 billion.

    '18、'19,你說的是 1000 億美元。

  • Are we -- what do you think, like going forward 2021, should we expect a continued growth in WFE as well, and maybe like '18 to '19 could be down but '20, '21 should be up from that.

    您認為,展望 2021 年,我們是否應該預期 WFE 也將持續成長,也許 '18 至 '19 可能會下降,但 '20、'21 應該會有所上升。

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Farhan.

    謝謝,法爾漢。

  • If we go back to 2000, when 300-millimeter wafers were introduced, the industry peaked at a capital intensity or WFE intensity of about 17% of overall industry revenues.

    如果我們回到 2000 年,當 300 毫米晶圓推出時,該行業的資本密集度或 WFE 強度達到頂峰,約佔整個行業收入的 17%。

  • And as you worked 300-millimeter systems into the mix, it drove a whole host of efficiencies that wasn't more -- just more output per factory, it's the way the factories were run, factory automation systems.

    當你將 300 毫米系統融入其中時,它會帶來一系列的效率提升,而不僅僅是提高每個工廠的產量,這就是工廠的運作方式,工廠自動化系統。

  • There was a whole host of efficiencies that were driven into the industry.

    該行業提高了很多效率。

  • And then in about maybe 2011, I think it was, the industry bottomed at about 7% of WFE intensity and it's been on the -- 13%, it's been -- 2013, and it's been on the rise ever since then.

    然後大約在 2011 年,我認為,該行業在 WFE 強度的 7% 左右觸底,一直到 2013 年為 13%,從那時起一直在上升。

  • But if we take a look at it today, 2017, it was about 12%.

    但如果我們看看今天,2017 年,這個數字約為 12%。

  • I think there's arguments to say that it could go higher, based on a lot of the complexity we see across the device types and capital intensity increasing.

    我認為有人認為它可能會更高,因為我們看到設備類型的複雜性和資本密集度的增加。

  • But if you just keep it at 12% and you think about where the overall semiconductor industry has the potential to grow to, even modest growth rates to 2025 mean that it could be a $650 billion, $700 billion, $750 billion industry.

    但如果你將其保持在 12%,並考慮整個半導體產業的潛力,即使到 2025 年,即使成長率不大,也意味著它可能是一個 6,500 億美元、7,000 億美元、7,500 億美元的產業。

  • And if you apply your 12% ratio to that aggregate industry revenue, you get to WFE numbers that are significantly north of where we are today.

    如果你將 12% 的比率應用到行業總收入中,你得到的 WFE 數字將遠高於我們今天的數字。

  • So we believe in the long-term trends that we're seeing.

    因此,我們相信我們所看到的長期趨勢。

  • We believe that semiconductors are on the critical path of enabling those trends.

    我們相信,半導體正處於實現這些趨勢的關鍵道路上。

  • We believe that the industry is getting more complex, and hence, more capital-intensive.

    我們認為,該行業正變得越來越複雜,因此資本也更加密集。

  • And we think that we've got more opportunities in front of us than we have in the rearview mirror.

    我們認為,我們面前的機會比後視鏡裡的機會還要多。

  • So we feel good about where this has the potential to go.

    因此,我們對這方面的潛力感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • I think historically, you guys had been very good at guiding the services business.

    我認為從歷史上看,你們非常擅長指導服務業務。

  • I think for the past 2 quarters, you've come in significantly above your guide.

    我認為在過去的兩個季度中,您的表現明顯高於預期。

  • I'm just wondering, has anything changed in the business from a fundamental standpoint?

    我只是想知道,從基本面來看,這個產業有什麼改變嗎?

  • And how should we think about sustainability of growth into the back half of the year and into 2019?

    我們該如何思考下半年和2019年成長的可持續性?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Toshiya.

    謝謝,俊也。

  • I don't think we're seeing any fundamental changes in the business.

    我認為我們的業務沒有任何根本性的變化。

  • We think that this is a great business for us.

    我們認為這對我們來說是一項偉大的事業。

  • We feel good about where it's headed.

    我們對它的發展方向感覺良好。

  • It's a form of less volatile revenue growth, it's a more stable driver of cash flow over time.

    這是一種收入成長波動較小的形式,隨著時間的推移,它是現金流更穩定的驅動力。

  • And the management team is operating this business in a very disciplined and focused way.

    管理團隊正在以非常有紀律和專注的方式經營這項業務。

  • We've seen growth above our long-term advertised growth rate of compounded 15% per year between now and 2020.

    從現在到 2020 年,我們的成長速度超過了我們長期宣傳的每年 15% 的複合成長率。

  • At the Analyst Day, we'll revise that long-term forecast.

    在分析師日,我們將修改長期預測。

  • But the team is executing well, and growth is really a function of 3 things in this business.

    但團隊執行得很好,成長其實是這個業務中三件事的函數。

  • Our installed base, we've got the largest installed base in the industry.

    我們的安裝基礎,我們擁有業界最大的安裝基礎。

  • Complexity is going up, service opportunity on a 300-millimeter tool is 4x that of a 200-millimeter tool, so the opportunity continues to grow over time as we continue to grow and ramp our semiconductor equipment business.

    複雜性正在上升,300 毫米工具的服務機會是 200 毫米工具的 4 倍,因此隨著我們不斷發展和提升我們的半導體設備業務,機會會隨著時間的推移而不斷增長。

  • And then the team's done a great job of driving service agreements with our customers.

    然後,該團隊在推動與客戶達成服務協議方面做得非常出色。

  • This is about the performance, performance of the machine, output, yield, capabilities.

    這是關於性能、機器性能、產量、產量、能力。

  • It drives better outcomes for our customers, better outcomes for us.

    它為我們的客戶帶來更好的結果,為我們帶來更好的結果。

  • And that partnership is reflected in the numbers that we're driving.

    這種夥伴關係反映在我們所推動的數字中。

  • So nothing fundamentally has changed.

    所以根本上什麼都沒有改變。

  • We've seen high utilizations probably driving higher parts uptake than we've seen maybe historically at lower levels of utilization throughout the industry, but it's just a disciplined focus management team driving hard at producing good results.

    我們已經看到,高利用率可能會推動更高的零件使用量,而歷史上整個行業的利用率水平可能較低,但這只是一個紀律嚴明的焦點管理團隊在努力產生良好的結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - Director

    Vivek Arya - Director

  • Just curious, when I look at your Q3 outlook, it sounds semis would be down sequentially which is somewhat different than the up sequential sort of guidance that we saw from some of your peers.

    只是好奇,當我查看你們的第三季度前景時,聽起來半決賽會連續下降,這與我們從你們的一些同行那裡看到的連續上升指導有所不同。

  • I know these things don't always line up exactly, but just wanted to hear your views on why there will be that kind of difference in terms of sequential growth rates in the semiconductor business?

    我知道這些事情並不總是完全一致,但只是想聽聽您對為什麼半導體業務的連續成長率會出現這種差異的看法?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • And I agree, this stuff doesn't line up perfectly.

    我同意,這些東西並不完美。

  • Different companies will profile differently.

    不同的公司會有不同的簡介。

  • When we take a step back, 2017 was a great year for WFE, $48 billion.

    退一步來說,2017 年對 WFE 來說是偉大的一年,銷售額達 480 億美元。

  • In 2018, it's going to be up over '17.

    2018年,這一數字將比17年有所上升。

  • We are going to show strong double-digit growth in each of our respective businesses.

    我們的每項業務都將呈現強勁的兩位數成長。

  • First half in '18 is strong, and with inventory rebalance that we're seeing from smartphones, we're going to see a sequential dip into Q3.

    18 年上半年表現強勁,隨著我們從智慧型手機看到的庫存重新平衡,我們將看到第三季的庫存持續下降。

  • But from our guidance into Q4, you can see that it recovers nicely into Q4.

    但從我們對第四季度的指導來看,您可以看到它在第四季度恢復得很好。

  • Fundamentals, we've talked about it on the call.

    基本面,我們在電話中討論過。

  • Fundamentals into 2019 look good for us.

    2019 年的基本面對我們來說看起來不錯。

  • 2018 and 2019 as a combined 2-year period are going to be over $100 billion.

    2018 年和 2019 年兩年期合計將超過 1,000 億美元。

  • It's going to be a good year.

    這將會是美好的一年。

  • And so we like the fundamentals and we like where the business is going, but I don't think there's too much to read into any one quarter over this period of performance.

    因此,我們喜歡基本面,也喜歡業務發展方向,但我認為在此期間的任何一個季度的表現都沒有太多值得解讀的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question is from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

  • Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

    Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

  • I had a question on display, a 2-part question.

    我顯示了一個問題,一個由兩個部分組成的問題。

  • One is, is it a margin differential between selling to LCD and OLED customers within display?

    一是,向 LCD 和 OLED 客戶銷售顯示器產品之間是否有利潤差異?

  • And if your display earning's down 15% next year, if all of the segments are similar, how should op margins look like?

    如果明年您的顯示器收入下降 15%,如果所有細分市場都相似,那麼營運利潤率應該如何?

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We don't see any -- really any difference in the margins between the OLED and TV customers.

    我們沒有看到 OLED 和電視客戶之間的利潤有任何差異。

  • And then operating margins, Dan, do you want to cover that one?

    然後是營業利潤率,丹,你想涵蓋這一點嗎?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Look, the team is going -- doing a good job driving the operating margins.

    看,團隊正在努力提高營運利潤。

  • We've talked about the long-term trajectory to the high 20s.

    我們已經討論了通往 20 多歲的長期軌跡。

  • And on our Analyst Day, we will -- we'll update that long-term forecast.

    在分析師日,我們將更新長期預測。

  • But the team's doing a good job driving the operating margins.

    但該團隊在提高營業利潤率方面做得很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question is from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

    我們的下一個問題是來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

  • J. Ho - MD of Technology Sector

    J. Ho - MD of Technology Sector

  • Gary, maybe specifically for you, you talked about DRAM and the higher capital intensity trends that you're seeing there for equipment overall.

    Gary,也許是專門針對您而言,您談到了 DRAM 以及您所看到的整體設備的更高資本密集度趨勢。

  • There's more patterning steps and even new materials being used.

    有更多的圖案化步驟,甚至使用了新材料。

  • Can you maybe go a little more in color in terms of where that's benefited your leadership segment, as well as where you believe Applied has gained share in the DRAM segment?

    您能否詳細說明這對您的領導細分市場有哪些好處,以及您認為應用材料公司在 DRAM 細分市場中獲得了哪些份額?

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Patrick.

    謝謝,派崔克。

  • So DRAM, as I said earlier, is really going to grow a significant amount for us in 2018.

    因此,正如我之前所說,DRAM 在 2018 年確實會大幅成長。

  • And we could, if you look at 2013 versus '18, have revenue growth around 5x in terms of our DRAM revenue, so really a significant growth.

    如果你對比 2013 年和 18 年,我們的 DRAM 收入將成長約 5 倍,所以確實是一個顯著的成長。

  • And as I mentioned before on the call, in the past, we really had strength in one segment, which was foundry, that was over 20%.

    正如我之前在電話會議上提到的,過去我們在代工這一細分市場確實有實力,佔比超過 20%。

  • All the other segments were 15% or lower.

    所有其他細分市場的比例均為 15% 或更低。

  • We've increased our share of DRAM, a huge amount.

    我們大幅增加了 DRAM 的份額。

  • And one thing that's happening from a device standpoint, they want faster input/output to the chip, and a periphery area, you're starting to see more logic-like steps.

    從設備的角度來看,發生的一件事是,他們希望晶片和外圍區域的輸入/輸出更快,您開始看到更多類似邏輯的步驟。

  • And as you said, Patrick, that benefits all of our products that we normally sell into logic, the epi PVD implant, thermal, CMP, all of those areas are now seeing demand in DRAM, and especially as there's greenfield activity taking place.

    正如你所說,帕特里克,這對我們通常銷售的所有產品都有好處,包括邏輯、外延PVD 注入、熱學、CMP,所有這些領域現在都看到了DRAM 的需求,特別是當綠地活動正在進行時。

  • That puts us in a great position relative to our overall share of the DRAM spending.

    這使我們相對於 DRAM 支出的整體份額處於有利地位。

  • We're also making gains in patterning in DRAM, new wins where we never had position really strong gains with Sym3.

    我們也在 DRAM 模式方面取得了進展,這是我們在 Sym3 方面從未取得過真正強勁進展的新勝利。

  • So those are the areas where we're seeing the fastest growth.

    因此,這些是我們看到成長最快的領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question is from Edwin Mok with Needham & Company.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok。

  • Yeuk-Fai Mok - Senior Analyst

    Yeuk-Fai Mok - Senior Analyst

  • My question is actually on the trailing at foundry logic I think you guys mentioned 20 nanometers -- sorry, 200 nanometers up 20% this year.

    我的問題實際上是關於代工邏輯的跟踪,我想你們提到了 20 奈米——抱歉,200 奈米今年增長了 20%。

  • And I think historically, that has not been really a big part of the business, that we have heard more and more from [more equivalent] company that, that has become a really meaningful part of their business.

    我認為從歷史上看,這並不是業務的重要組成部分,我們從[更同等的]公司那裡聽到越來越多的消息,這已經成為他們業務中真正有意義的部分。

  • So what changed in the trailing actually that's driving this growth or being -- become a bigger piece?

    那麼,尾部實際上發生了什麼變化,推動了這種增長或成為更大的一塊呢?

  • And are customer -- customer historically buy old tools or buy older designed tool.

    客戶歷史上會購買舊工具或購買舊設計的工具。

  • Are customer, like adopting the latest and greatest hardware in the trailing actually at 200 millimeter now?

    客戶現在喜歡在尾隨中採用最新最好的硬體嗎?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Edwin.

    謝謝,埃德溫。

  • So the changing buying patterns we've seen in customers has really been unfolding over the better part of a decade.

    因此,我們在客戶身上看到的購買模式的變化在過去十年的大部分時間裡確實在顯現。

  • If you would go back a decade ago, you would have seen 90% of the WFE in the foundry space on the leading edge, 10% on the trailing edge.

    如果你回到十年前,你會看到代工領域 90% 的 WFE 處於前沿,10% 處於後沿。

  • Over time, that's evolved to 80-20, 60-40.

    隨著時間的推移,逐漸演變成 80-20、60-40。

  • And this year, we see it evolving to 50-50.

    今年,我們看到它演變為 50-50。

  • And I think at the core of that is that more diversified spending is proliferation of edge devices as part of the Internet of Things, it requires a different our performance envelope and you see our estimates call for 28-nanometer peak capacity.

    我認為其核心在於,更多元化的支出是作為物聯網一部分的邊緣設備的激增,它需要我們不同的性能範圍,並且您會看到我們的估計要求 28 奈米峰值容量。

  • And initially we called peak capacity at 28-nanometers, 330,000 wafer starts a month.

    最初我們稱峰值產能為 28 奈米,每月可生產 33 萬片晶圓。

  • Then it was 400,000 then it was 450,000 and now it's 500,000 wafer starts a month.

    然後是 40 萬個,然後是 45 萬個,現在每月開始生產 50 萬個晶圓。

  • So you can see those peak capacities beginning to expand as edge devices proliferate, and you need sensors and intelligence -- onboard intelligence in those devices.

    因此,您可以看到隨著邊緣設備的激增,這些峰值容量開始擴大,並且您需要感測器和智慧——這些設備中的板載智慧。

  • And so we think it's really healthy to see this industry diversify geographically from a technology node perspective.

    因此,我們認為從技術節點的角度來看這個產業在地理上的多元化是非常健康的。

  • We think it's healthy from a long-term industry perspective as well.

    我們認為從長期產業角度來看這也是健康的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

  • Shek Ming Ho - VP

    Shek Ming Ho - VP

  • A few months ago in an investor conference, Dan, you talked about the next downturn could be a WFE going to $40 billion, and that you can achieve EPS better than 2017.

    幾個月前,在一次投資者會議上,丹,您談到下一次經濟衰退可能是 WFE 達到 400 億美元,並且您可以實現比 2017 年更好的每股收益。

  • Can you walk us through that thought process behind that comment, and what would be the biggest risk to those assumptions?

    您能否向我們介紹一下該評論背後的思考過程,以及這些假設的最大風險是什麼?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Thanks, Sidney.

    謝謝,西德尼。

  • So as you know, from the prepared comments in the Q&A, certainly $40 billion WFE is not our view.

    如你所知,從問答中準備好的評論來看,400 億美元的 WFE 當然不是我們的觀點。

  • But of course, we plan for a wide variety of scenarios.

    當然,我們會針對各種場景進行規劃。

  • So if we walk through a scenario, say that's $40 billion WFE, let's say our business is diverse, services is more stable, it's growing well.

    因此,如果我們經歷一個場景,假設 WFE 價值 400 億美元,那麼我們的業務是多元化的,服務更穩定,成長良好。

  • And from Gary's comment, display will be down into 2019.

    從 Gary 的評論來看,展示將持續到 2019 年。

  • So -- and the 24% market share, for lack of a better number, so 24% share in our equipment business, display down, services growing, you get revenue somewhere around $16 billion.

    因此,由於缺乏更好的數字,我們的設備業務佔 24% 的市場份額,顯示器下降,服務成長,您將獲得約 160 億美元的收入。

  • And let's say we keep OpEx in that difficult environment, we keep OpEx the same as this year, which is probably a conservative assumption, but let's peg it to this year, operating profit based on that revenue flow through is something around 26.5%.

    假設我們在這種困難的環境中保持營運支出,我們保持營運支出與今年相同,這可能是一個保守的假設,但讓我們將其與今年掛鉤,基於收入流的營運利潤約為 26.5%。

  • And so 2019 EPS, in that scenario, is nicely higher than where we were in 2017.

    因此,在這種情況下,2019 年每股盈餘將遠高於 2017 年。

  • So while we model a lot of scenarios, it's not our current view, but that's what a downside scenario could potentially look like.

    因此,雖然我們對許多場景進行了建模,但這不是我們當前的觀點,但這可能是不利場景的樣子。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from David Wong with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 David Wong。

  • David Michael Wong - MD & Senior Equity Technology and Services Analyst

    David Michael Wong - MD & Senior Equity Technology and Services Analyst

  • I'm looking at how the percent of your sales into China has been rapidly growing, I think it was 25% in the most recent quarter.

    我正在研究你們在中國的銷售額百分比如何快速成長,我認為最近一個季度為 25%。

  • Do you have any view on what your sales growth into China might be in fiscal '19 and fiscal '20?

    您對 19 財年和 20 財年在中國的銷售成長有何看法?

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • Yes, China is definitely a very strong region for us.

    是的,中國對我們來說絕對是一個非常強大的地區。

  • If we look our share in semi, display, service, it's one of the strongest regions.

    如果我們看看我們在半成品、顯示器、服務領域的份額,它是最強勁的地區之一。

  • And as I said earlier, '18 is going to see significant growth for Applied.

    正如我之前所說,應用材料公司將在 18 年實現顯著成長。

  • We do see continued increasing investment in China, as we move forward.

    隨著我們的前進,我們確實看到對中國的投資持續增加。

  • We don't have any specific forecast on what that will look like, but we have been seeing increasing revenue from China and growth there over the last few years.

    我們對具體情況沒有任何具體預測,但我們看到過去幾年來自中國的收入和成長不斷增加。

  • We anticipate that to go forward.

    我們預計這一情況將會持續下去。

  • Now we don't expect to see a hockey stick.

    現在我們不希望看到曲棍球棒。

  • If you look at the technology needed to participate in the leading edge, there's still some gaps there.

    如果你看看參與領先所需的技術,你會發現仍然存在一些差距。

  • But one of the things that we're also seeing is that the trailing geometries are growing, Dan just talked about that, relative to demand.

    但我們也看到的一件事是,相對於需求,尾隨幾何形狀正在增長,丹剛剛談到了這一點。

  • And certainly, that's an area where China's making a lot of investment.

    當然,這是中國進行大量投資的領域。

  • So again, we see increased revenue there, increased demand going forward and overall, a great position for Applied.

    因此,我們再次看到該地區的收入增加,未來需求增加,總體而言,應用材料公司處於有利地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Mehdi Hosseini with Susquehanna.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Dan, I see you had the largest incremental increase in inventory, is the largest sequential increase for a number of years.

    丹,我看到你們的庫存增量增幅最大,是多年來最大的連續增幅。

  • Can you please help us understand what is driving this increase?

    您能幫助我們了解是什麼推動了這項成長嗎?

  • And the mix between finished good and components?

    成品和零件之間的混合?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Mehdi.

    謝謝,邁赫迪。

  • I think the inventory increase is a function of 2 things.

    我認為庫存增加是兩件事的函數。

  • We've got a growing business and we think that business is going to continue to grow going forward.

    我們的業務不斷成長,我們認為未來業務將繼續成長。

  • But probably most importantly is, as we have consciously brought up our inventory levels in support of our fast-growing services business in the different geographies that we're experiencing that growth, to make sure we get the right kind of customer responsiveness and the right kind of customer satisfaction from a service business that's becoming increasingly important in and of itself, but increasingly important with our customers.

    但也許最重要的是,我們有意識地提高了庫存水平,以支持我們正在經歷增長的不同地區快速增長的服務業務,以確保我們獲得正確的客戶響應能力和正確的服務。來越重要,但對我們的客戶來說也越來越重要。

  • And so it's a conscious effort to increase service levels in a way that supports that rapid growth.

    因此,有意識地努力提高服務水平,以支持快速增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question is from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • Sounds like your view of WFE overall hasn't changed that much, but you said NAND, a little bit maybe lower than you thought, still up for the year and DRAM a little higher.

    聽起來您對 WFE 的看法總體上沒有太大變化,但您說 NAND 可能比您想像的要低一些,但今年仍然上漲,而 DRAM 則稍高一些。

  • I guess, what form has that lower NAND taken?

    我想,那個較低的 NAND 採取了什麼形式?

  • Is that sort of existing projects that you had planned -- that you had seen and planned, that you see are being deferred?

    是那些你曾經計劃過的現有項目——你已經看到併計劃過的,你看到正在被推遲的項目?

  • Is it someone just saying, we're going to spend the same amount of money but we're going to spend it on DRAM instead of NAND, or is just that, the -- you're just playing out a little bit different than you thought, and nothing sort of identifiable's changed.

    是否有人只是說,我們將花費相同數量的資金,但我們將把它花在 DRAM 而不是 NAND 上,或者只是這樣,您只是表現得與你想,但任何可識別的東西都沒有改變。

  • What's the scenario that's led to NAND being a little bit lower?

    是什麼場景導致NAND的價格稍微低一點呢?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • Look, so I don't think you can attribute it to any one single factor.

    聽著,所以我認為你不能將其歸因於任何一個單一因素。

  • And I think it gets back to what we were saying about disciplined behavior in the market with our customers, to make sure we're constantly balancing supply-demand so that customers remain healthy and we can just continue with a demand-led investment environment.

    我認為這又回到了我們所說的關於市場上與客戶的紀律行為,以確保我們不斷平衡供需,以便客戶保持健康,我們可以繼續以需求為導向的投資環境。

  • And so I think it's just customers responding in a very rational disciplined way that reflects the reality of the current market.

    因此,我認為這只是客戶以非常理性、有紀律的方式做出的反應,反映了當前市場的現實。

  • And look, we're very close with all of our customers.

    看,我們與所有客戶都非常密切。

  • And you hear our views on where we think this is headed into 2019, so we feel very, very good about where we sit.

    您會聽到我們對 2019 年發展前景的看法,因此我們對自己的處境感到非常非常滿意。

  • And I actually think the near-term behavior bodes well for the long-term health of the memory market as well as WFE in general.

    事實上,我認為短期行為對於記憶體市場以及 WFE 的長期健康來說是個好兆頭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Craig Ellis with B. Riley FBR.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Craig Ellis 和 B. Riley FBR。

  • Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research

    Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research

  • Thanks for all of the insight on industry dynamics.

    感謝您對行業動態的所有見解。

  • I did want to, however, turn to a different issue, and focus on a free cash -- excuse me, a cash flow item.

    然而,我確實想轉向另一個問題,重點關注自由現金——對不起,現金流項目。

  • Share buyback was $2.5 billion in the quarter, so about 28% of the authorization that had been expanded 3 months ago.

    本季股票回購額為 25 億美元,相當於 3 個月前擴大授權的 28%。

  • Dan, I was hoping you could just give us some sense for the way you're looking at -- executing on that program, as we go forward, whether it's going to be more opportunistic or if there's some calendar or periodic element to the way you would execute on the balance of the program.

    丹,我希望你能給我們一些關於你所看待的方式的理解——在我們前進的過程中執行該計劃,無論它是否會更加機會主義,或者是否有一些日曆或週期性元素的方式您將執行程序的其餘部分。

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Craig.

    謝謝,克雷格。

  • So you can see the actions we've taken.

    這樣您就可以看到我們已採取的行動。

  • We've got a view, our markets are strong.

    我們有一個觀點,我們的市場很強大。

  • Our position within those respective markets is probably better today than it's ever been.

    今天,我們在這些各自市場中的地位可能比以往任何時候都更好。

  • Company is executing well and we're generating a lot of cash.

    公司運作良好,我們產生了大量現金。

  • We've got a long-term track record of returning that cash to shareholders, and that's going to -- that will continue.

    我們在向股東返還現金方面有著長期的記錄,而且這種情況將會持續下去。

  • In June, we pay our first $0.20 dividend.

    6 月份,我們支付了第一筆 0.20 美元的股息。

  • We've repurchased 2.5 billion shares in the quarter, like you point out.

    正如您所指出的,我們在本季回購了 25 億股股票。

  • And we're going to continue to be opportunistic in the market.

    我們將繼續在市場上投機取巧。

  • While I won't commit $2.5 billion every quarter, we're going to continue to be opportunistic, when we don't feel like the trading price of our stock reflects the intrinsic value of the company, we'll be in the market over time, to return that cash to shareholders.

    雖然我不會每季投入 25 億美元,但我們將繼續投機取巧,當我們認為股票交易價格沒有反映公司的內在價值時,我們將在市場上是時候將現金回饋給股東了。

  • And I think that general framing, that mindset, that outlook, just reflects the strong confidence we have, confidence in our industry, in the business, in our execution.

    我認為整體框架、心態、前景恰恰反映了我們的堅定信心,對我們的產業、業務和執行力的信心。

  • And we're going to continue to look at dividend levels periodically over time.

    我們將繼續定期關注股息水準。

  • And as we grow our business, continue to maintain a strong track record of returning cash to shareholders.

    隨著我們業務的發展,我們將繼續保持向股東返還現金的良好記錄。

  • But opportunistic approach going forward like we've always done.

    但機會主義的做法就像我們一直以來所做的那樣。

  • Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

    Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

  • Thanks, Craig.

    謝謝,克雷格。

  • Dan, anything else you want to add before we go ahead and close up the call today?

    丹,在我們今天結束通話之前,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

    Daniel J. Durn - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Mike.

    謝謝,麥克。

  • So maybe couple of quick thoughts that we can wrap up with.

    也許我們可以總結一些快速的想法。

  • I think I want to reiterate.

    我想我想重申一下。

  • Q2 is a record quarter.

    第二季是創紀錄的季度。

  • 2018 is going to be another record year for this company.

    2018 年將是該公司再創紀錄的一年。

  • Company's executing well.

    公司執行情況良好。

  • We're driving top line growth, we're driving margin accretion.

    我們正在推動營收成長,我們正在推動利潤成長。

  • We're driving strong cash flow and we're driving more resources into R&D to fuel our future growth.

    我們正在推動強勁的現金流,並將更多資源投入研發,以推動我們未來的成長。

  • Breadth.

    寬度。

  • Breadth is a major positive that sets us apart, in semis we're hitting new records.

    廣度是我們脫穎而出的一大優勢,在半決賽中我們創下了新紀錄。

  • We're strong, and strong across all device types.

    我們很強大,而且在所有設備類型上都很強大。

  • We've got a growing pipeline.

    我們的管道正在不斷增長。

  • These new products, they're going to deliver high-performance and low power to the market, and we're going to see some of those new products here in the very near future.

    這些新產品將為市場提供高性能和低功耗,我們將在不久的將來看到其中一些新產品。

  • And we're growing beyond semi.

    我們正在超越半成品。

  • While display investments are shifting out in time, it's being offset by tremendous growth in our services business.

    雖然顯示器投資正在及時轉移,但它被我們服務業務的巨大成長所抵消。

  • The team has just done a fantastic job executing against that opportunity.

    該團隊剛剛抓住了這個機會,執行得非常出色。

  • And I guess, to Romit's earlier question, this is how we're offsetting that weakness in display and still well on track to earning over $5 a share in 2020.

    我想,對於 Romit 之前的問題,這就是我們如何抵消顯示方面的弱點,並且仍然預計在 2020 年實現每股收益超過 5 美元。

  • We've got strong conviction, strong conviction in our markets, in the pipeline, in the execution.

    我們有堅定的信念,對我們的市場、管道和執行都有堅定的信念。

  • And backing it up with strong capital allocation, $2.6 billion in Q2 alone.

    並以強大的資本配置為其後盾,僅第二季就達到了 26 億美元。

  • And I guess, before we go, I just look forward to seeing many of you at the following upcoming events.

    我想,在我們離開之前,我只是期待在接下來即將舉行的活動中見到你們中的許多人。

  • Gary and I are headed to Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, first time for Applied; at the new AI conference for investors arranged by New Street Research; and at the Cowen -- upcoming Cowen and BofA Merrill Lynch conferences.

    加里和我將前往伯恩斯坦策略決策會議,這是應用材料公司的第一次。在 New Street Research 為投資者安排的新人工智慧會議上;以及即將舉行的考恩和美銀美林會議。

  • Thanks for joining this afternoon.

    感謝您今天下午的加入。

  • We appreciate it.

    我們很感激。

  • Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

    Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

  • Okay, thanks, Dan.

    好的,謝謝,丹。

  • And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us this afternoon.

    我們要感謝大家今天下午加入我們。

  • A replay of this call will be available on our website by 5:00 p.m.

    本次電話會議的重播將於下午 5:00 之前在我們的網站上提供。

  • Pacific time.

    太平洋時間。

  • And we would like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

    我們衷心感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude our conference.

    女士們、先生們,我們的會議到此結束。

  • You may all disconnect.

    你們都可以斷開連線。

  • Have a wonderful day.

    祝你有美好的一天。