應用材料 (AMAT) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call.

歡迎參加應用材料公司的財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan.

我現在想把會議交給麥可·沙利文。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

I'm Mike Sullivan, Head of Investor Relations at Applied Materials.

我是麥克·沙利文，應用材料公司投資者關係主管。

We appreciate you joining us for our first quarter of fiscal 2018 earnings call, which is being recorded.

我們感謝您參加我們正在錄製的 2018 財年第一季財報電話會議。

Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

與我一起的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson；和我們的財務長 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's current view of its industries, performance, products, share positions and business outlook.

在開始之前，讓我提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括應用材料公司目前對其行業、業績、產品、股票頭寸和業務前景的看法。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance.

這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，並且不能保證未來績效。

Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

有關這些風險和不確定性的資訊包含在應用程式材料公司最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。

All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections and assumptions as of February 14, 2018, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理階層截至 2018 年 2 月 14 日的估計、預測和假設，應用材料公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP adjusted financial measures.

今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則調整後的財務指標。

Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

GAAP 措施的調節包含在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的調節幻燈片中，這些幻燈片可在我們網站 Appliedmaterials.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

I'm happy to report another record quarter for Applied, with revenue up nearly 30% from the same period last year.

我很高興地向大家報告應用材料公司又一個創紀錄的季度，營收比去年同期成長了近 30%。

2018 already looks like another great year, and we expect each of our 3 major business segments to deliver strong double-digit growth.

2018 年看起來又是偉大的一年，我們預計我們的 3 個主要業務部門都將實現強勁的兩位數成長。

We have tremendous momentum across the company and we are confident this momentum is sustainable for 2 reasons.

我們整個公司擁有巨大的發展勢頭，我們相信這種勢頭能夠持續，原因有兩個。

First, we see an expanding set of market drivers as more and more industries are disrupted by emerging technologies.

首先，隨著越來越多的產業受到新興技術的顛覆，我們看到市場驅動因素不斷擴大。

From retail to entertainment, health care, manufacturing and transportation, the way companies create value and compete increasingly depends on their ability to capture, store and understand huge amounts of data.

從零售到娛樂、醫療保健、製造和運輸，公司創造價值和競爭的方式越來越依賴他們捕獲、儲存和理解大量數據的能力。

The overall market for electronics is increasing, and as those electronics get smarter, semiconductor and display content grows even faster.

電子產品的整體市場正在成長，隨著這些電子產品變得更加智能，半導體和顯示內容的成長速度更快。

Second, Applied is in a great position to outpace our markets.

其次，應用材料公司處於領先市場的有利位置。

We are turning our investments into a strong pipeline of differentiated products, and we are using our broad set of capabilities to bring highly enabling new technologies to market faster than ever before.

我們正在將投資轉化為強大的差異化產品線，並利用我們廣泛的能力以前所未有的速度將高度可用的新技術推向市場。

In today's call, I'll talk about the major trends driving sustainable growth in our markets.

在今天的電話會議中，我將討論推動我們市場永續成長的主要趨勢。

I'll describe our strategy and how we're translating our broad portfolio of products and capabilities into differentiated performance for our businesses.

我將描述我們的策略以及我們如何將廣泛的產品組合和能力轉化為我們業務的差異化績效。

Then Dan will provide details about our financial execution and capital allocation, which reflects our increasing confidence in the sustainability of our markets.

然後丹將提供有關我們財務執行和資本配置的詳細信息，這反映了我們對市場可持續性的信心不斷增強。

This is an incredibly exciting time in the electronics industry because we are at the start of a new era of growth.

對於電子產業來說，這是一個令人難以置信的令人興奮的時刻，因為我們正處於一個新的成長時代的開始。

The Internet of Things, Big Data and artificial intelligence will transform the economy over the next decade.

物聯網、大數據和人工智慧將在未來十年改變經濟。

As a result, a broad spectrum of companies are making substantial investments in these technologies to position themselves for the future.

因此，許多公司正在對這些技術進行大量投資，以適應未來的發展。

These large, powerful trends are already driving a fundamental shift in demand for semiconductors and displays.

這些巨大而強大的趨勢已經推動了半導體和顯示器需求的根本性轉變。

While these are only the early stages of AI and Big Data, there are already applications that have significant traction and are starting to scale.

雖然這些只是人工智慧和大數據的早期階段，但已經有一些應用程式具有巨大的吸引力並開始擴展。

The first example is AI natural language processing, which is being integrated into more devices and driving silicon content at the edge and in the cloud.

第一個例子是人工智慧自然語言處理，它正在被整合到更多設備中並驅動邊緣和雲端的晶片內容。

Voice assistants are fast becoming the hub for home automation.

語音助理正迅速成為家庭自動化的中心。

A typical voice assistant has around 30 chips and a total of 200 square millimeters of silicon.

典型的語音助理大約有 30 個晶片，總共 200 平方毫米的矽片。

That's about twice the area of a smartphone application processor.

這大約是智慧型手機應用處理器面積的兩倍。

Language processing is compute-intensive, and the leading companies are building dedicated data centers to support it.

語言處理是計算密集型的，領先的公司正在建立專用的資料中心來支援它。

These AI workloads require new server architectures that have up to 8x more logic and 4x more memory content by area than traditional enterprise servers.

這些 AI 工作負載需要新的伺服器架構，其邏輯容量比傳統企業伺服器多 8 倍，記憶體容量比傳統企業伺服器多 4 倍。

Another important AI trend for 2018 is neural processing units in smartphones.

2018 年另一個重要的人工智慧趨勢是智慧型手機中的神經處理單元。

This is a great example of AI at the edge, where machine learning is used to enable a phone's camera to identify and react to what it's seeing.

這是邊緣人工智慧的一個很好的例子，其中機器學習用於使手機的攝影機能夠識別所看到的內容並做出反應。

The third example is self-driving cars.

第三個例子是自動駕駛汽車。

It's reported that $80 billion has already been invested as technology companies and traditional automakers race to get level 4 vehicles to market.

據報道，隨著科技公司和傳統汽車製造商競相將 4 級汽車推向市場，已經投資了 800 億美元。

We believe level 4 vehicles will have approximately 8x more silicon content than a standard car has today.

我們相信 4 級車輛的矽含量將是目前標準車的大約 8 倍。

These powerful emerging trends layer on top of traditional demand drivers, such as smartphones, data centers and storage, which continue to evolve and grow.

這些強大的新興趨勢建立在傳統需求驅動因素之上，例如智慧型手機、資料中心和存儲，這些需求驅動因素不斷發展和成長。

We see leading cloud service providers announcing significant increases in their capital investments to expand data center capacity.

我們看到領先的雲端服務供應商宣布大幅增加資本投資以擴大資料中心容量。

To keep pace with the explosion of data generation, the storage market is growing rapidly and NAND is taking a larger share.

為了跟上資料產生的爆炸性成長，儲存市場正在快速成長，NAND 佔據了更大的份額。

Recent data suggests that NAND will grow from 18% to about 30% of the total data storage market in the next 3 years.

最近的數據表明，未來 3 年內 NAND 佔整個資料儲存市場的份額將從 18% 增長到 30% 左右。

And while smartphone unit growth is relatively flat, the value of the silicon content in smartphones grew more than 30% in 2017.

儘管智慧型手機銷量成長相對平穩，但 2017 年智慧型手機中矽含量的價值增加了 30% 以上。

All these demand drivers add up to a very positive outlook for Applied's served markets.

所有這些需求驅動因素都為應用材料公司所服務的市場帶來了非常積極的前景。

In semiconductor, market fundamentals are strong, and we see disciplined investments in capacity and technology across a broadening customer base.

在半導體領域，市場基本面強勁，我們看到不斷擴大的客戶群對產能和技術進行了嚴格的投資。

Based on the timing of customer projects, we expect DRAM and logic spending to be higher in 2018, while the overall mix between foundry logic and memory investments will be similar to 2017.

根據客戶專案的時間表，我們預計 2018 年 DRAM 和邏輯支出將更高，而代工邏輯和記憶體投資之間的整體組合將與 2017 年相似。

We see a steady ramp of spending in China, which is positive for Applied because of our strong and growing market share and high service penetration at both multinational and domestic manufacturers.

我們看到中國的支出穩步增長，這對應用材料公司來說是積極的，因為我們的市場份額強勁且不斷增長，而且在跨國和國內製造商中的服務滲透率很高。

At the end of last year, we expected total wafer fab equipment spending in 2017 and 2018 combined would be more than $90 billion.

去年年底，我們預計 2017 年和 2018 年晶圓廠設備支出總額將超過 900 億美元。

As we look further ahead, we believe combined spending in 2018 and 2019 could be around $100 billion.

展望未來，我們認為 2018 年和 2019 年的總支出可能約為 1,000 億美元。

While it's too early to comment on timing of that spending, we believe the overall trend line is clear.

雖然現在評論這筆支出的時機還為時過早，但我們相信整體趨勢線是明確的。

In display, there are 2 equally large market inflections driving capital investments: the introduction of Gen 10.5 substrates for TV manufacturing and organic LED displays.

在顯示器領域，有兩個同樣大的市場變化推動了資本投資：用於電視製造和有機 LED 顯示器的第 10.5 代基板的推出。

In mobile, the transition to OLED displays is compelling.

在行動領域，向 OLED 顯示器的過渡引人注目。

This is because rigid OLED offers significant performance, power and cost advantages over LCD, and flexible OLED will enable new form factors, such as curved and eventually foldable screens.

這是因為剛性 OLED 比 LCD 具有顯著的性能、功耗和成本優勢，而柔性 OLED 將實現新的外形尺寸，例如彎曲螢幕和最終可折疊螢幕。

As a result, our positive outlook for 2018 and beyond remains unchanged.

因此，我們對 2018 年及以後的積極前景保持不變。

Display is a unique growth driver for Applied, and we expect to increase our revenue by more than 30% in 2018 on top of nearly 60% growth last year.

顯示器是應用材料公司獨特的成長動力，我們預計 2018 年營收將在去年近 60% 的基礎上再成長 30% 以上。

At Applied, our vision is to make possible the technology shaping the future, and we have aligned our investments and our organization around this vision.

在應用材料公司，我們的願景是讓科技塑造未來成為可能，並且我們圍繞著這個願景調整了我們的投資和組織。

It is increasingly clear that the breadth of our capabilities and product portfolio is an important source of differentiation because we bring together the most enabling capabilities in one place.

越來越明顯的是，我們的能力和產品組合的廣度是差異化的重要來源，因為我們將最強大的能力集中在一個地方。

We are in a unique position to help customers accelerate their time to market, which is tremendously valuable to them.

我們處於獨特的地位，可以幫助客戶加快產品上市時間，這對他們來說非常有價值。

Against this backdrop, I'll now provide updates for each of our business segments.

在此背景下，我現在將提供每個業務部門的最新情況。

In calendar 2017, we grew our semiconductor process equipment business more than 40% and our inspection and metrology business more than 10%.

2017 年，我們的半導體製程設備業務成長了 40% 以上，檢驗和計量業務成長了 10% 以上。

We expect to grow faster than these markets in 2018 and beyond with 3 major growth drivers.

我們預計 2018 年及以後的成長速度將超過這些市場，有 3 個主要成長動力。

First, in areas where we're traditionally strong, we are extending our leadership.

首先，在我們傳統優勢的領域，我們正在擴大我們的領導地位。

Our leadership products create the materials that determine the power, efficiency and performance of devices.

我們的領先產品所生產的材料決定了設備的功率、效率和性能。

To drive the major advances in transistor and interconnect needed to enable high-performance computing and AI, customers are increasing their focus on innovative materials and structures.

為了推動實現高效能運算和人工智慧所需的電晶體和互連的重大進步，客戶越來越關注創新材料和結構。

This is translating to significant growth in areas like PVD, where we grew revenues about $800 million in 2017.

這意味著 PVD ​​等領域的顯著成長，2017 年我們的營收成長了約 8 億美元。

Second, we're focused on capturing more share in markets where we have room to grow, specifically patterning, inspection and metrology.

其次，我們專注於在我們有成長空間的市場中獲得更多份額，特別是圖案化、檢查和計量。

In patterning, we are providing materials-enabled solutions to customers' 3 most significant scaling challenges: resolution, the 2-dimensional geometric shrinking of a device's features; 3D scaling, ways to increase transistor or memory cell density; and increasingly important, placement, which is the vertical alignment between the layers of a device.

在圖案化方面，我們為客戶的 3 個最重大的縮放挑戰提供材料支援的解決方案：分辨率，設備功能的二維幾何縮小； 3D 縮放，增加電晶體或儲存單元密度的方法；越來越重要的是佈局，即設備各層之間的垂直對齊。

By focusing on these key areas, we are on track to generate over $1 billion of patterning revenue in 2018.

透過專注於這些關鍵領域，我們預計在 2018 年創造超過 10 億美元的圖案收入。

And regardless of the EUV adoption, we expect our patterning opportunity to grow considerably over the next several years.

無論 EUV 的採用如何，我們預計未來幾年我們的圖案化機會將大幅成長。

Management of placement errors is also a driver for accelerated adoption of our e-beam inspection technologies.

貼裝錯誤的管理也是加速採用我們的電子束偵測技術的驅動力。

E-beam is the fastest-growing segment in the inspection and metrology market, and we're on track to grow significantly faster than the market in 2018.

電子束是檢測和計量市場中成長最快的細分市場，我們預計在 2018 年以明顯快於市場的速度成長。

Third, we are finding new ways to combine our innovative technologies in materials deposition, materials removal, materials modification and materials analysis.

第三，我們正在尋找新的方法來結合我們在材料沉積、材料去除、材料改質和材料分析方面的創新技術。

Based on these capabilities, the pull from our customers for earlier and deeper collaborations is stronger than ever, and we're working with them to develop new solutions that accelerate their technology road maps and expand Applied's market opportunities.

基於這些能力，我們的客戶對更早、更深入合作的需求比以往任何時候都更加強烈，我們正在與他們合作開發新的解決方案，以加快他們的技術路線圖並擴大應用材料公司的市場機會。

In service, on a year-on-year basis, we have grown revenues every quarter since the end of 2013.

在服務方面，自 2013 年底以來，我們每季的營收都較去年同期成長。

And we're confident we can continue to grow at least 15% per year.

我們有信心能夠繼續以每年至少 15% 的速度成長。

This sustainable growth is driven by: a growing installed base; an increasing number of tools under long-term service agreements; and advanced service products that help customers shorten ramp times, improve device performance and yield and rapidly optimize their factory output and operating costs.

這種永續成長的驅動因素是：安裝基礎不斷成長；長期服務協議下的工具數量不斷增加；以及先進的服務產品，幫助客戶縮短爬坡時間，提高設備性能和產量，並快速優化工廠產量和營運成本。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'll quickly summarize.

在將電話轉給丹之前，我將快速總結一下。

With record performance in the first quarter, 2018 is off to a great start.

憑藉第一季創紀錄的業績，2018 年有了一個良好的開端。

And we're confident we can deliver strong double-digit growth across our semiconductor, display and service businesses.

我們有信心能夠在半導體、顯示器和服務業務領域實現強勁的兩位數成長。

We see sustainable strength in our markets as new demand drivers, including IoT, Big Data and AI, layer on top of traditional computing and mobility.

我們將市場的永續發展視為新的需求驅動力，包括物聯網、大數據和人工智慧，它們位於傳統運算和行動性之上。

Applied is uniquely positioned to outperform our markets as we enable customers to accelerate their device road maps using our broad portfolio of products and capabilities.

應用材料公司擁有獨特的優勢，能夠幫助客戶利用我們廣泛的產品和功能組合來加速他們的設備路線圖，從而超越我們的市場。

Now Dan will give his perspective on our financial execution and outlook as well as provide additional color on our capital allocation.

現在，丹將闡述他對我們的財務執行和前景的看法，並為我們的資本配置提供更多資訊。

Thanks, Gary.

謝謝，加里。

I'd like to begin by sharing some of my observations about the environment Gary described and discuss how we plan to allocate the company's capital as a result.

我想先分享我對加里所描述的環境的一些觀察，並討論我們計劃如何分配公司的資本。

The semiconductor industry is fueling a new data economy and today, we're already seeing record semiconductor industry revenue of over $400 billion.

半導體產業正在推動新的數據經濟，今天，我們已經看到半導體產業收入超過 4000 億美元，創歷史新高。

We're excited about the Internet of things and artificial intelligence, and we believe this next era of computing will be built out over the next decade or more.

我們對物聯網和人工智慧感到興奮，我們相信下一個運算時代將在未來十年或更長時間內建立。

Of course, nobody can guarantee that the growth will follow a straight line, but the future we envision is nondiscretionary to the world's largest industries, and semiconductor process technology and systems are at the foundation.

當然，沒有人能保證成長會呈直線成長，但我們所設想的未來對於世界上最大的產業來說是非自由裁量的，而半導體工藝技術和系統是基礎。

All of the leading indicators of our equipment business are positive, and Gary shared that we see strength in 2018 and 2019.

我們設備業務的所有領先指標都是正面的，Gary 表示我們看到了 2018 年和 2019 年的強勁勢頭。

I believe WFE spending is going to remain significantly higher and less cyclical than it was during the PC era, which many people still identify with.

我相信，與許多人仍然認同的 PC 時代相比，WFE 支出將保持顯著較高且週期性較低的水平。

Consider these facts: 300-millimeter technology arrived in the year 2000 and gave customers 2.3x the number of chips for every wafer.

考慮以下事實：300 毫米技術於 2000 年問世，為客戶提供了每個晶圓上 2.3 倍的晶片數量。

While semiconductor revenue grew, equipment spending actually declined between 2000 and 2013 as WFE intensity dropped from a peak of 17% to a low of 9% over that same time period.

儘管半導體收入成長，但 2000 年至 2013 年間，設備支出實際上有所下降，因為同期 WFE 強度從 17% 的峰值降至 9% 的低點。

But from 2013 to 2017, while semiconductor sales grew, wafer fab equipment grew even faster, and WFE intensity ticked higher to 12%.

但從 2013 年到 2017 年，在半導體銷售額成長的同時，晶圓廠設備的成長速度更快，WFE 強度升至 12%。

With technology getting more complex, I think it's hard to imagine WFE intensity drifting much lower.

隨著技術變得越來越複雜，我認為很難想像 WFE 強度會降低很多。

So consider what happens if the semiconductor industry grows from today's levels at a modest 5% pace as multiple forecasts predict.

因此，請考慮一下，如果半導體產業按照多項預測的預測，從目前的水平以 5% 的適度速度成長，會發生什麼。

Then if WFE intensity stays flat at 12%, WFE investments of $50 billion or more should not be considered unusual in the near term, and spending could potentially reach $75 billion by the middle of the next decade.

那麼，如果 WFE 強度保持在 12% 不變，短期內 500 億美元或更多的 WFE 投資不應被認為是不尋常的，到下一個十年中期，支出可能會達到 750 億美元。

We'll leave forecasting to others.

我們將把預測留給其他人。

The point I want to make is that demand is much broader today than during the PC era.

我想說的一點是，如今的需求比個人電腦時代廣泛得多。

WFE intensity has stabilized, and the industry is likely to be a lot more attractive in the years ahead.

WFE 強度已經穩定，該行業在未來幾年可能會更具吸引力。

So the future looks bright, especially for Applied Materials because we have a growing semi business, a growing services business and a unique growth opportunity in display.

因此，未來看起來很光明，特別是對於應用材料公司來說，因為我們擁有不斷增長的半成品業務、不斷增長的服務業務以及獨特的顯示成長機會。

I believe Applied Materials will become larger and more profitable and generate significantly more free cash flow than we do today.

我相信應用材料公司將變得更大、利潤更高，並產生比現在更多的自由現金流。

Against this backdrop, here is how we plan to deploy the company's capital going forward.

在此背景下，我們規劃如何部署公司的資本。

Our capital allocation priorities are unchanged.

我們的資本配置優先順序沒有改變。

Our first priority is to invest in the growth of the business with an emphasis on organic growth.

我們的首要任務是投資於業務成長，重點是有機成長。

We will continue to invest with discipline.

我們將繼續遵守紀律進行投資。

This means every dollar of R&D is tied to an attractive margin target, and we will continue to look every quarter for opportunities to shift money from lower-return areas to high-return areas before increasing R&D.

這意味著研發的每一美元都與有吸引力的利潤目標掛鉤，我們將繼續每個季度尋找機會，在增加研發之前將資金從低迴報領域轉移到高回報領域。

We will also stay laser-focused on maintaining G&A efficiency.

我們也將繼續專注於維持一般管理費用效率。

Our second priority is to maintain a robust and flexible balance sheet.

我們的第二要務是保持穩健且靈活的資產負債表。

We remain committed to a strong investment-grade credit rating.

我們仍然致力於提供強大的投資等級信用評級。

Our third priority is to return excess cash to our shareholders.

我們的第三個優先事項是將多餘的現金回饋給股東。

In fact, since 2000, Applied has returned nearly 90% of free cash flow to shareholders.

事實上，自2000年以來，應用材料公司已將近90%的自由現金流返還給股東。

And today, we're announcing a change in the dividend policy.

今天，我們宣布股利政策的變化。

We've said that our markets are bigger and less volatile, which gives us the opportunity to pay higher dividends.

我們說過，我們的市場更大、波動更小，這使我們有機會支付更高的股息。

Applied's Board of Directors has approved a 100% increase in the quarterly cash dividend and declared the first $0.20 quarterly dividend will be payable in June.

應用材料公司董事會已批准將季度現金股息增加 100%，並宣布將於 6 月支付第一筆 0.20 美元的季度股息。

We'll review our distribution practices on a regular basis and evaluate further dividend increases as we continue to grow the business.

我們將定期審查我們的分配做法，並隨著業務的不斷發展評估進一步的股息增加。

At the same time, we strongly believe in the future growth and value creation of the company.

同時，我們堅信公司未來的成長和價值創造。

Accordingly, the board has also increased our buyback authorization by $6 billion.

因此，董事會也將我們的回購授權增加了 60 億美元。

Combined with more than $2.8 billion remaining from the previous authorization, we have a significant opportunity to increase shareholder value through buybacks.

加上上次授權剩餘的超過 28 億美元，我們有很大的機會透過回購來增加股東價值。

We plan to be opportunistic, repurchasing more shares when we believe they are significantly undervalued.

我們計劃抓住機會，在我們認為股票被嚴重低估時回購更多股票。

Next, I'll discuss the impacts of U.S. corporate tax reform, which is beneficial to Applied because it gives us greater flexibility in how we deploy future profits to serve our customers, grow the company and return capital to our shareholders.

接下來，我將討論美國公司稅改革的影響，這對應用材料公司有利，因為它使我們能夠更靈活地部署未來利潤來服務客戶、發展公司並向股東返還資本。

With freer access to profits generated offshore, we now have greater flexibility to invest within the U.S., where we do much of our advanced technology development and manufacturing.

由於能夠更自由地獲取海外利潤，我們現在可以更靈活地在美國境內進行投資，我們的大部分先進技術開發和製造都在美國進行。

This year, we plan to add new engineering jobs in the U.S. and invest in new labs and office space to support our growth objectives.

今年，我們計劃在美國增加新的工程職位，並投資新的實驗室和辦公空間，以支持我們的成長目標。

In Q1, the new tax legislation resulted in a onetime repatriation tax of about $1 billion.

第一季度，新稅法導致一次性匯回稅約 10 億美元。

As you may know, the tax amount is payable over 8 years and the payments are significantly back-end weighted.

如您所知，稅款的繳納期限為 8 年，並且付款是顯著後端加權的。

Because of this onetime repatriation tax, Applied's GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 88.4%.

由於這項一次性匯回稅，應用材料公司本季的 GAAP 稅率為 88.4%。

Our non-GAAP tax rate was 6.3% for Q1, and we're using a 6.5% tax rate in our planning for the rest of fiscal 2018.

第一季我們的非 GAAP 稅率為 6.3%，我們在 2018 財年剩餘時間的規劃中使用 6.5% 的稅率。

Beginning in fiscal 2019, we expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be in the range of 11% to 12%.

從 2019 財年開始，我們預計非 GAAP 稅率將在 11% 至 12% 之間。

This increase reflects a minimum tax on foreign income that becomes effective next year.

這一增長反映了明年生效的海外收入最低稅。

Now I'll comment on our financial execution in Q1.

現在我將評論我們第一季的財務執行情況。

We delivered our eighth consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth in both revenue and non-GAAP EPS, which was $1.06 or $1.02 when excluding a $0.04 tax benefit.

我們的營收和非 GAAP 每股盈餘連續第八個季度實現同比增長，每股收益為 1.06 美元，扣除 0.04 美元的稅收優惠後為 1.02 美元。

On a year-over-year non-GAAP basis, we increased gross margin by 1.3 points, reduced OpEx as a percent of sales by 2.3 points and grew operating margin by 3.6 points.

以非 GAAP 基準計算，我們的毛利率提高了 1.3 個百分點，營運支出佔銷售額的百分比降低了 2.3 個百分點，營業利潤率提高了 3.6 個百分點。

Turning to the segments.

轉向細分市場。

We delivered record revenue and operating profit in both semi equipment and services.

我們在半設備和服務方面都實現了創紀錄的收入和營業利潤。

In semi equipment, we grew revenue by 32% year-on-year and delivered the highest operating margin in over 7 years.

在半成品設備方面，我們的營收年增了 32%，並實現了 7 年來最高的營業利潤率。

I'm particularly impressed with the growth of our services business.

我們服務業務的成長給我留下了特別深刻的印象。

AGS grew revenue by 30% year-on-year, which was above our expectation, mainly due to higher-than-expected spare parts demand.

AGS營收年增30%，超出我們預期，主要是因為備品需求高於預期。

AGS is also delivered record operating margin.

AGS 的營運利潤率也創歷史新高。

In display, revenue and operating margin were both lower sequentially, following a record Q4, which we anticipated due to lumpiness of the business.

從顯示器上看，繼第四季度創紀錄之後，營收和營業利潤率均較上季下降，我們預期這是由於業務不景氣所致。

We expect display revenue and operating margin to trend higher in the balance of the year.

我們預計今年剩餘時間顯示器收入和營業利潤率將呈上升趨勢。

Now I'll share our business outlook for Q2.

現在我將分享我們對第二季的業務展望。

We expect revenue to be in the range of $4.35 billion to $4.55 billion.

我們預計營收將在 43.5 億美元至 45.5 億美元之間。

The midpoint would be up nearly 26% year-over-year.

中點將年增近 26%。

We expect semiconductor systems revenue and services revenue to both increase by about 23% year-over-year.

我們預計半導體系統收入和服務收入將年增約23%。

And our display revenue should increase by about 48% year-over-year.

我們的顯示器收入應該是年增48%左右。

We expect the non-GAAP gross margin percentage to be approximately flat sequentially.

我們預計非公認會計原則毛利率百分比將與上一季基本持平。

Non-GAAP operating expenses should be in the range of $755 million, plus or minus $10 million.

非 GAAP 營運費用應在 7.55 億美元上下浮動 1,000 萬美元之間。

At the midpoint, OpEx would be approximately 17% of revenue, down 1.4 points year-over-year.

中點時，營運支出約佔收入的 17%，年減 1.4 個百分點。

And we expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $1.14, plus or minus $0.04.

我們預計非 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 1.14 美元上下浮動 0.04 美元之間。

The midpoint of the range is up nearly 44% year-over-year.

該範圍的中點年增近 44%。

And now I'll turn the call back to Mike to start the Q&A.

現在我將把電話轉回給麥克開始問答。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

(Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

（操作員指示）操作員，我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of Atif Malik with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Atif Malik 線路。

First question for Gary.

第一個問題是加里。

Gary, can you just talk about the mix of mobile versus TV in your unchanged 30% year-over-year outlook for display business?

Gary，您能否談談行動與電視的結合，您對顯示業務的年比預期保持不變，為 30%？

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Atif.

謝謝，阿提夫。

Just overall, again, in '18, we're still seeing 30% -- greater than 30% growth.

總體而言，在 18 年，我們仍然看到 30%——超過 30% 的成長。

And 2019 and beyond also look very strong.

2019 年及以後看起來也非常強勁。

If we look at '18, mobile versus TV, your question, it's about 50-50 mix.

如果我們看看 18 年，行動裝置與電視，你的問題是大約 50-50 的混合。

In TV, we see increased adoption of larger screen.

在電視領域，我們看到越來越多的人採用更大的螢幕。

We're tracking 13 Gen 10.5 projects.

我們正在追蹤 13 個 Gen 10.5 項目​​。

And also, a great example here is on 65-inch TVs.

另外，65 吋電視就是一個很好的例子。

If you produce them with Gen 10.5, you have 8 65-inch TVs, only 3 with Gen 8.5.

如果你用 10.5 代生產，你有 8 台 65 吋電視，只有 3 台用 8.5 代生產。

So that's driving the TV business.

這推動了電視業務的發展。

OLED is the other half of our business in '18, and we still see very strong opportunity in OLED.

OLED 是我們 18 年業務的另一半，我們仍然看到 OLED 的巨大機會。

Previously, we had one customer that was more than 50% of the business.

在此之前，我們有一個客戶佔了我們業務的 50% 以上。

Now greater than 50% of the business is coming from multiple customers.

現在超過 50% 的業務來自多個客戶。

We talked about 10 customers in OLED.

我們討論了 OLED 領域的 10 位客戶。

And the transition to OLED displays is really compelling.

向 OLED 顯示器的過渡確實引人注目。

Rigid OLED gives you better performance, faster refresh rates, power, cost advantages over LCD.

與 LCD 相比，剛性 OLED 可為您提供更好的效能、更快的更新率、功耗、成本優勢。

Flexible OLED gives you new form factors, such as curved displays and eventually foldable screens.

柔性 OLED 為您帶來新的外形尺寸，例如曲面顯示器和最終的可折疊螢幕。

So again, we're on track for greater than 30% growth in 2018 and on track with our longer-term model.

因此，我們預計在 2018 年實現超過 30% 的成長，並與我們的長期模型保持一致。

And our next question will come from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題將來自 C.J. Muse 和 Evercore 的系列。

I guess a question for you around your capital allocation plan.

我想問您一個關於您的資本分配計劃的問題。

Obviously, with the doubling of the dividend, you're feeling good about the sustainability of this heightened level of spending in WFE.

顯然，隨著股息翻倍，您對 WFE 支出水準提高的可持續性感到滿意。

Would be curious to hear your thoughts around your framework of returning that capital.

我很想聽聽您對返還資本框架的想法。

You announced the buyback program is now $8.8 billion.

您宣布回購計畫現已達到 88 億美元。

Would love to hear whether that is going to be opportunistic or systematic.

我很想知道這是機會主義的還是系統性的。

Overall, would generally like to hear how you think about free cash flow generation and plans to return excess back to shareholders.

總的來說，通常想聽聽您如何看待自由現金流的產生以及將多餘的現金流返還給股東的計劃。

Thanks, C.J. Let me see if I can help you with that.

謝謝，C.J. 讓我看看是否可以幫助您。

So as you point out, we do see strength in our end markets.

正如您所指出的，我們確實看到了終端市場的實力。

We're really encouraged by the diversification of those and markets.

我們對這些和市場的多元化感到非常鼓舞。

We're encouraged by capital intensity is rising.

資本密集度的上升令我們感到鼓舞。

And we're encouraged by the health of our customers.

我們對客戶的健康狀況感到鼓舞。

So we've got a strong view of our markets into the future.

因此，我們對未來的市場有清晰的認識。

From a capital allocation standpoint, the company's got a great history.

從資本配置的角度來看，該公司有著悠久的歷史。

Since 2000, the company has returned nearly 90% of free cash flow back to shareholders.

自2000年以來，公司已將近90%的自由現金流返還給股東。

As part of this announcement, we're changing the mix a bit.

作為本公告的一部分，我們將對組合進行一些更改。

We're going to increase our dividend by 100%.

我們將把股息增加 100%。

We've also announced a $6 billion share repurchase, when combined with the $2.8 billion that was outstanding from the prior authorization, gives us an opportunity to opportunistically be in the market to drive even more value for shareholders.

我們也宣布了 60 億美元的股票回購，加上先前授權中未償還的 28 億美元，使我們有機會在市場上為股東帶來更多價值。

And so we feel good about our end markets.

因此，我們對我們的終端市場感覺良好。

We feel very good about the performance of the company.

我們對公司的業績感覺非常好。

And we're going to remain committed to being very shareholder-friendly with our excess free cash flow.

我們將繼續致力於利用我們過剩的自由現金流對股東非常友善。

And our next question will come from the line of Farhan Ahmad with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸銀行的法爾漢·艾哈邁德 (Farhan Ahmad)。

My first question is on the long-term drivers for the business.

我的第一個問題是關於業務的長期驅動因素。

You talked about AI, IoT and the general data economy.

您談到了人工智慧、物聯網和通用數據經濟。

Have you guys done any sort of work to figure out what portion of the business is currently being supported by these nonconsumer markets?

你們是否做過任何工作來弄清楚這些非消費者市場目前支持了哪些業務？

So as we look into the end markets and what's driving WFE, what we see is a lot of confidence in macro trends that are going to be driving a significant amount of efficiency into very large industries, and we see that spend as nondiscretionary.

因此，當我們研究終端市場以及推動 WFE 的因素時，我們看到的是對宏觀趨勢的信心，這些趨勢將極大地提高大型產業的效率，而且我們認為這種支出是非自由裁量的。

It is foundational to the companies' competitiveness.

它是公司競爭力的基礎。

It's difficult to unpack those macro trends and slice them by WFE to see what part of WFE specifically report -- supports each trend.

很難解開這些宏觀趨勢並按 WFE 對其進行切片，以了解 WFE 的哪些部分具體報告——支持每種趨勢。

What we see is a noticeably larger end market.

我們看到的是一個明顯更大的終端市場。

We see strength across all device types, whether it's logic foundry, whether it's memory.

我們看到了所有設備類型的優勢，無論是邏輯代工廠還是記憶體。

And within logic foundry, we see strength in both end markets.

在邏輯代工領域，我們看到了兩個終端市場的實力。

Within memory, we see strength in both NAND and DRAM.

在記憶體領域，我們看到了 NAND 和 DRAM 的優勢。

So we're really encouraged by the breadth of the strength we're seeing, and we think it bodes well for the market.

因此，我們對所看到的實力的廣度感到非常鼓舞，我們認為這對市場來說是個好兆頭。

But I think it's too difficult to unpack specifically how much is attributed to which end market trend.

但我認為很難具體分析到底有多少是歸因於哪種終端市場趨勢。

And our next question will come from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Harlan Sur 與摩根大通的聯繫。

Good to see the boost in the capital return program.

很高興看到資本回報計劃的推動。

And this goes back to your previous answer, but if I used net income as a proxy for free cash flow, this calendar year, you guys are going to be generating about $4 billion in free cash flow.

這又回到了你之前的答案，但如果我用淨利潤作為自由現金流的代表，那麼今年，你們將產生大約 40 億美元的自由現金流。

So the dividend increase you guys announced today is going to consume about 20% of that free cash flow.

因此，你們今天宣布的股息增加將消耗約 20% 的自由現金流。

I guess, the question is, is the team committed over a multiyear period [to its] 90% free cash flow return, which would imply, at least for this year, about $3.2 billion in repurchase activity?

我想，問題是，該團隊是否承諾在多年期間實現 90% 的自由現金流回報，這意味著至少今年將進行約 32 億美元的回購活動？

And the reason why I ask this is that many semi companies and some of your peers are articulating capital return as a percent of free cash flow.

我之所以問這個問題，是因為許多半導體公司和一些同業都將資本報酬率表述為自由現金流的百分比。

So I guess the question is, 90% of free cash flow, is that how we should think about the capital return commitment from the team on a go-forward basis?

所以我想問題是，90% 的自由現金流，我們該如何考慮團隊未來的資本回報承諾？

Thanks, Harlan.

謝謝，哈倫。

Let me see if I can add a little more color on this to try to be helpful.

讓我看看是否可以在此添加更多顏色以嘗試提供幫助。

I would look at the 90% historical number as a mindset of this management team, as a mindset of Applied Materials, to be committed to getting cash back in the hands of shareholders.

我將 90% 的歷史數字視為這個管理團隊的心態，作為應用材料公司的心態，致力於將現金回饋給股東。

We're going to remain committed to that going forward.

未來我們將繼續致力於這一點。

I don't think what you will see from ours is a formulaic approach to.

我認為您從我們這裡看到的並不是一種公式化的方法。

From a dividend standpoint, we made a big move on the dividend.

從股利的角度來看，我們在股利方面做出了重大舉措。

We are going to continue to look at the performance of the business and the way we grow the business and review that policy on a periodic basis and look to grow our dividend as we grow the business.

我們將繼續專注於業務績效和業務成長方式，並定期審查該政策，並隨著業務成長而增加股利。

We're going to complement that the way we have historically, by being -- aggressive repurchases of our shares when we feel intrinsic value is not fully reflected in the trading price of our stock.

當我們認為內在價值沒有完全反映在我們股票的交易價格中時，我們將按照我們歷史上的方式進行補充，即積極回購我們的股票。

And we're going to continue to do that.

我們將繼續這樣做。

So rather than be formulaic, I think we're going to look to be opportunistic with the repurchase, committed to the dividend, committed to reviewing that policy over time as we grow the business.

因此，我認為我們不會公式化，而是會在回購方面尋求機會主義，致力於股息，並隨著業務的發展而不斷審查該政策。

And I think our track record into the future will be similar as our historical track record of getting a substantial amount of excess free cash flow back to shareholders.

我認為我們未來的業績記錄將與我們將大量超額自由現金流返還給股東的歷史記錄相似。

But we do not want to be formulaic in that approach today.

但我們今天不想採用公式化的方法。

And our next question will come from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Dan, you're guiding gross margin this quarter of flat sequentially despite display becoming a bigger percentage of the overall business, which I think, historically, would have been detrimental gross margins.

丹，儘管顯示器業務在整體業務中所佔的比例越來越大，但您指導的本季毛利率仍將持平，我認為，從歷史上看，這將是有害的毛利率。

So I guess, what's driving the fundamental improvement in gross margins?

所以我猜，是什麼推動了毛利率的根本改善？

And longer term, you've shared the 47% target in your midterm plan.

從長遠來看，您在中期計劃中分享了 47% 的目標。

But we're kind of there.

但我們就在那裡。

So how should we think about potential upside from there going forward?

那我們該如何看待未來的潛在上行空間呢？

Thanks, Toshiya.

謝謝，俊也。

So the company's got a really good track record over the last 4 years.

因此，該公司在過去 4 年裡取得了非常好的業績記錄。

The last 4 years, we've improved gross margin by 5 points.

過去 4 年，我們的毛利率提高了 5 個百分點。

We've also articulated a model that says we're going to capture about 70 basis points of material cost of sales savings each year as we drive the business forward.

我們還制定了一個模型，該模型表示，隨著我們推動業務發展，我們每年將節省約 70 個基點的材料銷售成本。

That model still holds.

這個模型仍然成立。

But that's assuming a constant mix.

但這是假設持續混合的情況。

You rightfully point out that we're going to have composition of our business, the mix composition of our business that's going to create a bit of a headwind and mask some of that fundamental progress.

您正確地指出，我們的業務組成、業務的混合組成將產生一些阻力，並掩蓋一些根本性的進展。

So to see a quarter where we see strong sequential growth in display and have us hold the gross margin flat, I think is a reflection of all the hard work that's going on behind the scenes to continue to drive the profitability of the company.

因此，看到一個季度我們看到顯示器業務連續強勁增長並使毛利率保持不變，我認為這反映了幕後為繼續推動公司盈利而進行的所有艱苦工作。

What I would say is, is our long-term model, we'd like to articulate a long-term model once a year during our Analyst Day and resist the temptation to update it along the way.

我想說的是，我們的長期模型，我們希望每年在分析師日期間闡明一個長期模型，並抵制在此過程中更新它的誘惑。

What I would say is, is that we're going to be aggressive about looking for opportunities to do better than what we've advertised in our long-term model.

我想說的是，我們將積極尋找機會，做得比我們在長期模型中所宣傳的更好。

And where we see opportunities, we will pursue it aggressively and make sure we're delivering as much value as possible for shareholders.

當我們看到機會時，我們將積極追求，並確保為股東提供盡可能多的價值。

Given the mix of businesses and the growth profile going forward, we'd like to stay consistent with our 47% gross margin out into the 2020 time frame.

考慮到業務組合和未來的成長狀況，我們希望在 2020 年的時間範圍內保持 47% 的毛利率。

And if we have an update, we'll review it in the fall at our Analyst Day.

如果我們有更新，我們將在秋季的分析師日進行審查。

And our next question will come from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wonder, when you talk about the $100 billion of WFE for the next 2 years versus the $90 billion you talked about for the next years 12 months ago, how much of that increment do you think is coming from which segment?

我想知道，當您談到未來兩年的 1000 億美元 WFE 與 12 個月前您談到的未來幾年的 900 億美元時，您認為增量中有多少來自哪個細分市場？

And how much is memory versus foundry logic?

記憶體與代工邏輯的差距是多少？

And is there a level where you start to feel like you start to worry about supply growth being too high?

您是否開始擔心供應成長過高？

Or just how are you guys are thinking about these levels because they keep kind of ratcheting higher?

或者你們是如何看待這些水平的，因為它們一直在上升？

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

So from -- implicit in the question is a framing that says we're ratcheting our estimates higher.

因此，這個問題隱含著一個框架，表明我們正在提高我們的估計。

What I would say is, is we're extending the range of our forecast out into 2019 time frame.

我想說的是，我們正在將預測範圍延長至 2019 年的時間範圍。

And we feel really good about our end markets.

我們對我們的終端市場感覺非常好。

What we're encouraged by is driven by 3 primary reasons.

我們之所以受到鼓舞，有 3 個主要原因。

Macro trends, diversification of our demand drivers is the first; second, capital intensity is up across the board, and that's all device types; and the third, customers are very, very healthy right now.

宏觀趨勢，我們的需求驅動多元化是第一；其次，資本密集度全面上升，而且是所有設備類型；第三，顧客現在非常非常健康。

So just double-clicking on each of those 3 elements.

因此，只需雙擊這 3 個元素中的每一個即可。

We've got macro trends shaping how we live our lives right now.

我們的宏觀趨勢正在塑造我們現在的生活方式。

We've been thinking about it for a while, I think probably back in the 2016 time frame at our Analyst Day.

我們已經思考這個問題有一段時間了，我想可能是在 2016 年分析師日的時間框架內。

Artificial intelligence, Big Data, Internet of Things, autonomous driving, these are playing out.

人工智慧、大數據、物聯網、自動駕駛，這些都在上演。

We view these trends are real.

我們認為這些趨勢是真實的。

They're making an impact.

他們正在產生影響。

Demand for silicon is going up.

對矽的需求正在上升。

Semiconductors are on the critical path of enabling each of these trends.

半導體處於實現這些趨勢的關鍵路徑上。

Content in data centers is going up, content in edge devices is going up, and we're -- again, we're seeing strength across all device types.

資料中心的內容正在增加，邊緣設備的內容正在增加，我們再次看到所有設備類型的優勢。

So the macro trends are incredibly favorable.

因此，宏觀趨勢非常有利。

As we look at capital intensity, capital intensity is up across the board.

當我們觀察資本密集度時，資本密集度全面上升。

In 7 -- in foundry, 7-nanometer is up 100% over 28-nanometer.

7－在代工廠中，7奈米比28奈米提升了100%。

Memory, both NAND and DRAM, is up between 40% and 60% over that same time period.

同期記憶體（包括 NAND 和 DRAM）成長了 40% 到 60%。

Foundry is 3x more capital-intensive than the memory market.

代工廠的資本密集度是記憶體市場的三倍。

And we used to have wafer size transitions where you would get 2.3x the number of chips per wafer, for instance, when you go from 200- to 300-millimeter.

我們曾經進行過晶圓尺寸轉換，例如，當您從 200 毫米變為 300 毫米時，每個晶圓的晶片數量會增加 2.3 倍。

The last transition was at -- in the year 2000.

最後一次轉變是在 2000 年。

WFE intensity went from 17% in that year to a low of 9% in 2013, when all of the efficiency gains of that transition were absorbed.

WFE 強度從當年的 17% 降至 2013 年的 9%，當時轉型帶來的所有效率效益都被吸收了。

And from 2013 to today, we've seen it trend up from that 9% to 12%.

從 2013 年到今天，我們看到它從 9% 上升到 12%。

And we don't have another wafer size transition on the horizon, so we feel really good about the capital intensity that underpins our markets.

而且我們不會有另一次晶圓尺寸轉變，因此我們對支撐我們市場的資本密集度感到非常滿意。

And I guess, the third thing, customers are healthy.

我想，第三件事，顧客是健康的。

They're investing a lot of money to drive this growth into the semiconductor industry, but they're also making a lot of money.

他們投入了大量資金來推動半導體產業的成長，但他們也賺了很多錢。

Their WFE spend as a percent of EBITDA is down.

他們的 WFE 支出佔 EBITDA 的百分比有所下降。

In 2012 to 2018, the 3 largest memory providers and the 3 largest foundry logic providers are all down 60% WFE spend as a percent of EBITDA.

2012 年至 2018 年，三大記憶體供應商和三大晶圓代工邏輯供應商的 WFE 支出佔 EBITDA 的比例均下降了 60%。

So we're really encouraged by what we see.

所以我們對所看到的感到非常鼓舞。

Macros -- macro is good, markets are good and customers are profitable.

宏觀－宏觀是好的，市場是好的，客戶是有利可圖的。

We think it's a really healthy market, and we're encouraged by it.

我們認為這是一個非常健康的市場，我們對此感到鼓舞。

And our next question will come from the line of Patrick Ho with Stifel, Nicolaus.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Patrick Ho 和 Stifel、Nicolaus 的路線。

Gary, in your prepared remarks, you talked about some of that share gains you've generated over the past few years, particularly in patterning and e-beam inspection.

加里，在您準備好的發言中，您談到了過去幾年中您所獲得的一些份額收益，特別是在圖案化和電子束檢測方面。

A lot of it is due to the industry transition to 3D NAND and your ability to introduce some of the new products for that product.

這很大程度上是由於行業向 3D NAND 的過渡以及您為該產品推出一些新產品的能力。

At the same time, we're seeing now the industry transition on the logic side to 10- and 7-nanometers.

同時，我們現在看到邏輯方面的產業正在向 10 奈米和 7 奈米過渡。

Can you discuss some of the opportunities there?

您能討論一下那裡的一些機會嗎？

And maybe some of the share gain potential you have as that segment of the market makes a pretty sizable transition?

也許隨著該市場領域發生相當大的轉變，您擁有一些份額成長潛力？

Sure, Patrick.

當然，派崔克。

Let me first start kind of big picture and then I'll cover the question on the -- that you asked.

讓我先從大局開始，然後我將討論您提出的問題。

So in '17, we grew process equipment more than 40%.

因此，在 17 年，我們的製程設備成長了 40% 以上。

PDC grew about 10%.

PDC成長約10%。

Now if you look back over the last 3 years, 2014 to 2017, process equipment grew much faster than the PDC market.

現在，如果你回顧過去三年，2014 年至 2017 年，製程設備的成長速度遠遠快於 PDC 市場。

And we see that playing out in '18 and probably in future years also.

我們看到這種情況將在 18 年上演，也可能在未來幾年上演。

But again, process equipment, very, very strong growth.

但同樣，工藝設備的成長非常非常強勁。

And as you said, very strong balance for us.

正如你所說，這對我們來說非常平衡。

It used to be that if it was a good foundry year, Applied would do well and not as well on the memory years.

過去，如果晶圓代工年表現良好，應用材料公司就會表現出色，而在內存年則表現不佳。

We've increased our share of memory about 7% over the last few years of total spending.

在過去幾年的總支出中，我們的記憶體份額增加了約 7%。

So in '17, we had very balanced share in all the different segments, device segments, around 20% or more in all of those different segments.

因此，在 17 年，我們在所有不同的細分市場、設備細分市場中擁有非常平衡的份額，在所有這些不同的細分市場中約佔 20% 或更多。

And then what we're looking for, 2018, is strong double-digit growth in our leadership businesses, in our growth businesses and also in PDC.

2018 年，我們希望我們的領導業務、成長業務以及 PDC 實現兩位數的強勁成長。

PDC, we have new capabilities, new products that will increase our growth a fair amount above what we accomplished in 2017.

PDC，我們擁有新的能力、新的產品，這些將使我們的成長遠遠超過我們 2017 年所取得的成就。

In foundry, there really are 2 big drivers.

在代工廠中，確實有兩個重要的驅動因素。

And one of those drivers is in the trailing geometries.

這些驅動因素之一是尾隨幾何形狀。

There was question earlier about AI and what's driving AI.

早些時候有人對人工智慧以及人工智慧的驅動因素提出了疑問。

Well, you really have data generation, many, many smart devices, data storage, and then you have the high-performance computing to process the information.

嗯，你確實有數據生成、很多很多智慧型設備、數據存儲，然後你就有高效能運算來處理資訊。

So if you look at the trailing geometries, China is increasing investment in 2018 a fair amount, both with domestic and global companies.

因此，如果你看一下後面的幾何數據，你會發現中國在 2018 年大幅增加了對國內和全球企業的投資。

We have a great position in China, that's one of our highest share positions in semiconductor and display.

我們在中國佔有重要地位，這是我們在半導體和顯示器領域的最高份額之一。

And we expect that we'll outgrow the market in China in 2018.

我們預計 2018 年我們的成長將超過中國市場。

Patterning is a great opportunity for us.

圖案化對我們來說是一個很好的機會。

We've gained about 19 points of share in patterning over the last few years.

過去幾年，我們在模式方面的份額增加了約 19 個百分點。

If we look forward, patterning in 2020 will be about a $5 billion TAM.

如果我們展望未來，2020 年的模式 TAM 將約為 50 億美元。

We anticipate that we can add another $1 billion approximately in revenue over the next 4 years in patterning.

我們預計在未來 4 年內，我們可以在圖案方面再增加約 10 億美元的收入。

And then if you look at scaling challenges.

然後如果你看看擴展挑戰。

Scaling, you have different drivers.

擴展時，你有不同的驅動因素。

One is resolution, 2-dimensional shrinking of features.

一是分辨率，特徵的二維縮小。

There, multi-patterning is growing.

在那裡，多重圖案正在增長。

80% of layers are multi-patterning, those are growing, and that's a great opportunity for Applied Materials.

80% 的層是多重圖案的，而且這些層數還在不斷增長，這對應用材料公司來說是一個很好的機會。

3D scaling certainly happened in 2D to 3D NAND, but also see that in logic.

3D 縮放當然發生在 2D 到 3D NAND 中，但在邏輯中也看到了這一點。

The contact over active gate is one example where you see that, and that's also materials-enabled scaling for customers.

有源閘極上的接觸就是您看到的一個範例，這也是為客戶提供材料支援的擴展。

And certainly, you see that in high-performance computing and advanced foundry and logic.

當然，您可以在高效能運算以及先進的鑄造和邏輯中看到這一點。

And then another big industry challenge where we're in a great position, one of the biggest challenges for our customers is pattern placement, the alignment of one layer to the next, edge placement errors.

然後是另一個重大的行業挑戰，我們處於有利地位，我們的客戶面臨的最大挑戰之一是圖案放置、一層與下一層的對齊、邊緣放置錯誤。

And there was a conference in early January, 2 of the top technologists from leading companies talked about edge placement errors being one of the biggest industry challenges.

在一月初的一次會議上，兩位來自領先公司的頂級技術專家談到邊緣放置錯誤是最大的行業挑戰之一。

And what they said was that materials is the key driver for solutions to pattern placement.

他們表示，材料是圖案放置解決方案的關鍵驅動力。

And if you look at our position with all of the selective technologies we have and materials technologies we have, we're in a very strong position to grow, especially in foundry, as they move to these -- foundry and logic, as they move to these new technologies.

如果你看看我們擁有的所有選擇性技術和材料技術的地位，我們處於非常有利的成長地位，特別是在鑄造廠，當他們轉向這些時——鑄造廠和邏輯，當他們移動時對於這些新技術。

So again, overall '17, we grew over 40% in process equipment.

因此，17 年總體而言，我們的製程設備成長了 40% 以上。

We see strong double-digit growth in all of our segments: leadership, growth, PDC.

我們看到所有細分市場都實現了兩位數的強勁成長：領導力、成長、PDC。

And the other thing I would say that we're seeing tremendous pull from customers is accelerating their road map.

我要說的另一件事是，我們看到客戶的巨大吸引力正在加速他們的路線圖。

If they can bring those high-performance computing or AI chips to market faster, that's worth a tremendous amount of money.

如果他們能夠更快地將這些高效能運算或人工智慧晶片推向市場，那就值一大筆錢。

And our ability to create, modify, remove and analyze materials is really unique.

我們創建、修改、刪除和分析材料的能力確實是獨一無二的。

So we're seeing deeper engagements with customers than we've ever seen in the past, and I would say I've never been optimistic about our markets and also our positions in those markets.

因此，我們與客戶的互動比以往任何時候都更加深入，我想說，我對我們的市場以及我們在這些市場中的地位從來沒有感到樂觀。

And as question will come from the line of Edwin Mok with Needham & Company.

問題將來自 Edwin Mok 與 Needham & Company 的團隊。

Sorry about background noise.

抱歉，背景噪音。

So I have a question about China.

所以我有一個關於中國的問題。

You guys sound pretty confident about investment by the local Chinese manufacturer.

你們聽起來對中國本土製造商的投資很有信心。

But [based on the new play], we haven't seen a lot of products coming out of there or any design come out that.

但是[基於新遊戲]，我們還沒有看到很多產品出來，也沒有看到任何設計。

What gives you confidence that, that investment will come, maybe later in this year or 2019, '20 time frame?

是什麼讓您相信這項投資可能會在今年稍後或 2019 年 20 世紀的時間框架內到來？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So we have pretty significant visibility in China.

所以我們在中國有相當高的知名度。

We have the highest share.

我們的份額是最高的。

We also sell the manufacturing automation systems.

我們也銷售製造自動化系統。

So we have a lot of leading indicators relative to all the projects that are happening in China.

因此，我們有許多與中國正在進行的所有項目相關的領先指標。

And as I said earlier, we have the largest share, and our share is growing in China, both in semiconductor and in display.

正如我之前所說，我們在中國擁有最大的份額，而且無論是在半導體還是在顯示器領域，我們的份額都在增長。

And what we see in 2018 is a market that's going to grow.

我們在 2018 年看到的是一個將會成長的市場。

We're more optimistic, I would say, in terms of the growth in China.

我想說，我們對中國的成長更加樂觀。

It's pretty balanced between global and domestic companies.

全球公司和國內公司之間的情況相當平衡。

And again, we're working very closely with all of those different companies.

再說一遍，我們正在與所有這些不同的公司密切合作。

Domestic China is higher in foundry and logic than it is in memory.

中國國內的代工和邏輯比記憶中高。

And one of the things that we talked about was data generation, smarter devices, the increasing sensor technologies.

我們討論的事情之一是數據生成、更智慧的設備、不斷增長的感測器技術。

That's an area where China has capability.

這是中國有能力的領域。

And certainly, the demand for those trailing geometries is now 40% of the foundry market.

當然，目前對這些尾隨幾何形狀的需求佔代工市場的 40%。

And we're seeing very strong growth there in China.

我們看到中國的成長非常強勁。

For the global companies, they are more weighted towards memory versus foundry and logic.

對於跨國公司來說，他們更注重記憶體而不是代工和邏輯。

Another thing that Dan talked about in the prepared remarks was our service growth.

丹在準備好的發言中談到的另一件事是我們的服務成長。

I think something like 30% year-over-year in service.

我認為服務年增長率約為 30%。

China is also a market where our penetration in service is very high, helping global and local of companies ramp new fabs in new locations.

中國也是我們服務滲透率非常高的市場，幫助全球和本地公司在新地點建造新晶圓廠。

And so we had some onetime parts increases in our quarter that increased the rate of growth in service above the model that we gave.

因此，我們在本季度進行了一些一次性零件的增加，這使得服務成長率高於我們給出的模型。

We think we may be a few points higher than that model, but that certainly contributed to an extraordinary quarter relative to service growth.

我們認為我們可能比該模型高幾個百分點，但這無疑促成了相對於服務成長的非凡季度。

So anyway, we have very, very good visibility in China.

所以無論如何，我們在中國有非常非常好的知名度。

The investments there are strategic investments, and we believe that that's going to remain available market and especially good for Applied Materials.

那裡的投資是戰略投資，我們相信這將仍然是可用的市場，特別是對應用材料公司有利。

Yes.

是的。

I just want to build on very quickly the point Gary was making about our services business.

我只想快速闡述加里關於我們服務業務的觀點。

I think the way we'd profile this year from a service perspective will be different than we've seen historically, because of the dynamic Gary talked about.

我認為，由於加里談到的充滿活力，我們從服務角度描述今年的方式將與我們歷史上看到的不同。

I think you'll see a seasonally stronger first half and different profile into the back half of the year as a couple of these fabs facilitated by international customers are brought online in China.

我認為，隨著國際客戶推動的幾家晶圓廠在中國上線，您將看到上半年季節性強勁，下半年情況有所不同。

I think the way to think about the back half of the year, because you've got visibility now on Q1 and Q2, think about the back half of the year, is take our long-term compound growth rate in our services business of 15%.

我認為考慮今年下半年的方法是，因為您現在已經了解了第一季和第二季的情況，考慮今年下半年的情況，我們的服務業務的長期複合成長率為 15 %。

And as you look at full year 2018 revenue over full year 2017 revenue, we're likely to be about 3 points above our long-term compound growth rate.

當你將 2018 年全年收入與 2017 年全年收入進行比較時，我們的長期複合成長率可能會高出約 3 個百分點。

I think that gives you a good framing on how to think about the services business throughout the course of the year so you can dial-in your models.

我認為這為您提供瞭如何思考全年服務業務的良好框架，以便您可以撥入模型。

And our next question will come from the line of David Wong with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 David Wong。

In terms of the growth you are expecting in display equipment this year, is this driven primarily by growth in your traditional display products, or you're seeing -- are you seeing meaningful new -- meaningful growth from moving into new areas and increasing your addressed market in display?

就您預計今年顯示設備的成長而言，這主要是由傳統顯示產品的成長推動的，還是您看到的——您是否看到有意義的新的——通過進入新領域和增加您的產品而帶來的有意義的成長？

So the display market in 2018 is roughly 50% TV and 50% mobile, and then really with the same products that we have had in the market previously.

因此，2018 年的顯示器市場大約有 50% 是電視，50% 是行動設備，而且實際上是我們之前市場上相同的產品。

So no real growth from significant new products forecasted in 2018.

因此，預計 2018 年重要新產品不會出現實際成長。

And the mix is really about 50-50 between mobile and TV.

行動裝置和電視的比例實際上約為 50-50。

And our question will come from the line of Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們的問題將來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

If you look back at the last calendar year, by my math, your semi system business grew about 34%, which is obviously very impressive.

如果你回顧去年，根據我的計算，你的半系統業務成長了約 34%，這顯然非常令人印象深刻。

But it's also just a few percentage points better than the WFE market.

但它也只比 WFE 市場好幾個百分點。

But the outperformance was much higher the year before.

但前一年的表現好得多。

When you talk about you expect the business to grow -- outgrow the market again this year, do you expect that outperformance to reaccelerate this year?

當您談到您預計今年業務成長將再次超過市場成長時，您預計今年的表現會再次加速嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for your question.

謝謝你的提問。

So again, if you break down our business, the process equipment business grew more than 40% in 2017.

再說一次，如果你細分我們的業務，2017 年流程設備業務成長了 40% 以上。

PDC grew 10%.

PDC 成長 10%。

So it was more growth in terms of the process equipment business.

因此，製程設備業務有更多成長。

If we look into 2018, we see strong double-digit growth really across all of those different businesses: the growth businesses, the leadership businesses, where we have extremely high market share, and also in PDC.

如果我們展望 2018 年，我們會發現所有這些不同業務都實現了強勁的兩位數成長：成長型業務、領先業務（我們在這些業務中擁有極高的市場份額）以及 PDC。

So strong growth across all of them, strong double-digit growth across all of those businesses in 2018.

2018 年，所有這些業務都實現了強勁的兩位數成長。

And then operator, I'd like to let you know that we've got time for about 2 more questions, please, if we have them.

然後接線員，我想讓您知道我們還有時間回答另外 2 個問題（如果有的話）。

Our next question will come from the line of Craig Ellis with B. Riley FPR.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Craig Ellis 和 B. Riley FPR。

Gary, I just wanted to go back to the multiyear outlook and see if I could get some color from you, just on how you're thinking about the potential for growth in 2019.

蓋瑞，我只是想回顧一下多年展望，看看能否從您那裡得到一些關於您如何看待 2019 年成長潛力的資訊。

I know it may be early to be real precise there, but it seems like a lot of the secular factors that are helping cause the uplift from where we've been as an industry to where we are now, are multiyear in nature, and they would seem to be as or more forceful next year.

我知道現在要真正準確地描述這一點可能還為時過早，但似乎有很多長期因素有助於我們從行業發展到現在的水平，這些因素本質上是多年的，而且它們明年似乎會同樣或更有力。

So any color on the potential for WFE growth next year would be appreciated.

因此，任何關於明年 WFE 成長潛力的顏色都將受到讚賞。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

I'll go ahead and jump in and take this.

我會繼續跳下去並接受這個。

I think it's too early to tell how spending profile across that 2-year sequence.

我認為現在判斷這兩年的支出還為時過早。

I think it's important to just take a step back and look at what's really driving our view on a multiyear basis.

我認為重要的是退後一步，看看多年來真正推動我們觀點的因素。

Macro trends are real.

宏觀趨勢是真實的。

Capital intensity is up.

資本密集度上升。

And we're seeing modest and disciplined growth into China.

我們看到中國市場呈現溫和且規律的成長。

Again, we think these macro trends shaping people's lives, we're in the early innings.

同樣，我們認為這些宏觀趨勢正在塑造人們的生活，我們仍處於早期階段。

Gary referenced $80 billion of investments in autonomous vehicles.

加里提到了 800 億美元的自動駕駛汽車投資。

By 2020, 8 OEMs are going to have level 4 vehicles on the road.

到 2020 年，8 家 OEM 廠商將擁有 4 級車輛上路。

By 2022, it's 12 OEMs.

到 2022 年，原始設備製造商數量將達到 12 家。

We're in the early stages of SSD penetration of hard disk drives.

我們正處於 SSD 向硬碟滲透的早期階段。

And when we correlate it bottoms-up with dialogue we have with customers, all indicators look good the best we can see, and fundamentals continue to look good into 2019.

當我們將其自下而上與我們與客戶的對話聯繫起來時，所有指標看起來都是我們能看到的最好的，並且基本面在 2019 年繼續保持良好。

So while those trends, we have a lot of confidence in, too early to call how revenue profiles over the forecast horizon.

因此，儘管我們對這些趨勢充滿信心，但現在判斷預測範圍內的收入狀況還為時過早。

And our last question will come from the line of Farhan Ahmad with Crédit Suisse.

我們的最後一個問題將來自瑞士信貸銀行的法爾漢·艾哈邁德 (Farhan Ahmad)。

Just one question on how you're thinking about the buybacks.

只是一個關於您如何考慮回購的問題。

You laid out a very positive long-term outlook.

您提出了非常積極的長期前景。

And if do, like, a DCF around it, I can get like a very significant upside from where your share prices currently are.

如果這樣做的話，例如圍繞它進行 DCF，我可以從你的股價目前的水平得到非常顯著的上漲。

So is it fair to think that you could be a lot more opportunistic with the buybacks?

那麼，您可以在回購方面更加投機取巧嗎？

And it could be more front-half loaded if share prices are around current level?

如果股價在當前水準附近，它可能會承受更多的前半負載嗎？

Thanks, Farhan.

謝謝，法爾漢。

Like we said, we will be opportunistic with our repurchases.

正如我們所說，我們將在回購方面採取機會主義態度。

We've got a strong point of view on where the markets are going and how our company is performing within those respective markets.

我們對市場的走向以及我們公司在各個市場的表現有很強的觀點。

Gives us a lot of confidence in what the future holds for our business, more profitable, substantively higher free cash flow generation potential.

讓我們對我們業務的未來充滿信心，利潤更高，自由現金流產生潛力更大。

And whenever we see disconnects in intrinsic value as we see in our company and how we trade in the market, I think you'll see us be opportunistic with respect to those repurchases.

每當我們看到我們公司的內在價值以及我們在市場上的交易方式出現脫節時，我想你都會看到我們在這些回購方面表現出機會主義態度。

Okay, Farhan, thanks for the question.

好的，法爾漢，謝謝你的提問。

Let's see, Dan, anything you want to add before we close the call?

丹，讓我們看看，在我們結束通話之前您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, thanks, Mike.

是的，謝謝，麥克。

I think it's probably good to close with a couple of quick thoughts.

我認為用一些簡單的想法來結束可能是件好事。

Personally, I can think of a better time to be in the semiconductor industry.

就我個人而言，我認為進入半導體行業是一個更好的時機。

We talked a lot about multiple growth drivers that are important trends shaping our lives.

我們談論了很多成長動力，這些成長動力是塑造我們生活的重要趨勢。

These trends are going to drive tremendous productivity and the investments are nondiscretionary for some of the largest, most competitive industries on the planet.

這些趨勢將推動巨大的生產力，而對於地球上一些最大、最具競爭力的產業來說，投資是不可自由裁量的。

It is fundamentally about staying competitive.

從根本上來說，這是為了保持競爭力。

Semiconductors are on the critical path of enabling those trends.

半導體處於實現這些趨勢的關鍵路徑上。

And at the center of it, it all begins with what we do at Applied.

而這一切的核心，都始於我們在應用材料公司所做的事情。

When we bring all of this together, Applied's future is incredibly bright.

當我們將所有這些結合在一起時，應用材料公司的未來將無比光明。

Our breadth and depth is just an asset for the company.

我們的廣度和深度只是公司的資產。

We're likely to be sustainably bigger, more profitable and we're going to generate more cash than in the past.

我們可能會持續變得更大、利潤更高，我們將比過去產生更多的現金。

And as we think about putting that cash to use, we talked about 3 important ways.

當我們考慮如何使用這些現金時，我們討論了 3 個重要的方法。

Number one, we're going to invest in new products.

第一，我們將投資新產品。

This is going to lead the way and drive the organic growth profile we've seen over the last few years.

這將引領並推動我們在過去幾年中看到的有機成長。

We will invest to drive organic growth.

我們將進行投資以推動有機成長。

We will pay higher dividends and we're going to be buying back more shares to drive even more shareholder value going forward.

我們將支付更高的股息，並將回購更多股票，以推動未來更多的股東價值。

Finally, we look forward to seeing many of you.

最後，我們期待見到你們中的許多人。

We're going to be at the Goldman conference tomorrow.

我們明天將參加高盛會議。

And then next week, we'll be on the road in New York, Boston or Toronto.

下週，我們將前往紐約、波士頓或多倫多。

And as always, thanks for joining us, and we really appreciate the support.

一如既往，感謝您加入我們，我們非常感謝您的支持。

So Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

麥克，讓我們繼續並結束通話。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks for that, Dan.

謝謝你，丹。

And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today.

我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。

A replay of our call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 p.m.

我們的電話會議重播將於下午 5:00 之前在我們的網站上提供。

Pacific time today.

今天太平洋時間。

And we'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

我們要感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participation on today's conference.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude our program, and we may all disconnect.

這確實結束了我們的計劃，我們可能都會斷開連接。

Everybody, have a wonderful day.

祝大家有美好的一天。