應用材料 (AMAT) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call.

歡迎參加應用材料公司的收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President.

（操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

We appreciate you joining us for our fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 earnings call, which is being recorded.

感謝您參加我們正在錄製的 2018 財年第四季度財報電話會議。

Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

加入我的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官加里·迪克森 (Gary Dickerson)；和我們的首席財務官 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's current view of its industries, performance, products, share positions and business outlook.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括 Applied 當前對其行業、業績、產品、股票頭寸和業務前景的看法。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance.

這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，並且不是對未來業績的保證。

Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

有關這些風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 和 8-K 表格中。

All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections and assumptions as of November 15, 2018, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理層截至 2018 年 11 月 15 日的估計、預測和假設，應用材料公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議還包括非 GAAP 財務措施。

Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

與 GAAP 措施的對賬包含在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的對賬幻燈片中，這些幻燈片可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給加里迪克森。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，邁克。

In our fourth fiscal quarter, Applied Materials posted solid results in line with our guidance.

在我們的第四財季，應用材料公司公佈了符合我們指引的穩健業績。

Despite challenging market conditions in the second half of the year, each of our major businesses delivered double-digit growth in fiscal 2018.

儘管下半年市場形勢充滿挑戰，但我們的每項主要業務在 2018 財年都實現了兩位數的增長。

This would not have been possible without the hard work and dedication of our employees around the world, and I would like to thank them for all their contributions over the past year.

如果沒有我們全球員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，這是不可能的，我要感謝他們在過去一年中所做的所有貢獻。

While we expect market headwinds to continue in the near term, we're not seeing the large fluctuations that characterized the semiconductor and display equipment industries in the past.

雖然我們預計短期內市場逆風將繼續存在，但我們並沒有看到過去半導體和顯示設備行業特有的大幅波動。

At the same time, we are demonstrating that we have built a more resilient company with diversified revenue streams that can execute well in a range of market conditions.

與此同時，我們正在證明我們已經建立了一家更具彈性的公司，擁有多元化的收入來源，能夠在各種市場條件下表現良好。

Looking further ahead, we are confident that longer-term growth drivers in both semiconductor and display remain firmly in place and will continue to create great opportunities for Applied.

展望未來，我們相信半導體和顯示器領域的長期增長動力依然穩固，並將繼續為應用材料公司創造巨大機遇。

During the call today, I'll start with our perspective on near-term market dynamics then I'll summarize Applied's performance and priorities and finish by talking about the future growth drivers reshaping our industry and describing the company's strategy and investments to address the evolving needs of our customers and the substantial opportunities ahead.

在今天的電話會議中，我將從我們對近期市場動態的看法開始，然後我將總結 Applied 的業績和優先事項，最後討論重塑我們行業的未來增長動力，並描述公司的戰略和投資以應對不斷發展的變化我們客戶的需求和未來的大量機會。

Over the past several years, I've shared my perspective that the wafer fab equipment industry has fundamentally changed.

在過去的幾年裡，我分享了我的觀點，即晶圓廠設備行業已經發生了根本性的變化。

Today, it is structurally larger and less volatile than it was in the past.

今天，它在結構上比過去更大，波動更小。

These changes are due to increasingly diverse market drivers spanning consumer, enterprise and industrial applications.

這些變化是由於跨越消費者、企業和工業應用的日益多樣化的市場驅動因素所致。

In recent months, however, we've seen several factors negatively impacting industry spending.

然而，最近幾個月，我們看到了幾個對行業支出產生負面影響的因素。

These include elevated macroeconomic risks, global trade tensions and, specific to our industry, a pullback in memory investments.

其中包括宏觀經濟風險升高、全球貿易緊張局勢，以及我們行業特有的內存投資回落。

Recent commentary by memory makers has painted a consistent picture.

內存製造商最近的評論描繪了一幅一致的圖景。

Overall demand in the server, PC and mobile markets is weaker than it was earlier in the year, and memory prices are softening in the near term.

服務器、個人電腦和移動市場的整體需求比今年早些時候疲軟，內存價格在短期內走軟。

Our customers tell us they expect demand to pick up and pricing to stabilize in the second half of 2019.

我們的客戶告訴我們，他們預計 2019 年下半年需求回升，價格穩定。

I believe the pullback in memory spending we're going through today is different from the down cycles of the past.

我相信我們今天正在經歷的內存支出回落與過去的下降週期不同。

There are several reasons for this.

有幾個原因。

Supply and demand are relatively well balanced.

供需相對平衡。

Customers' investments in capacity are rational and disciplined, and the overall economics of the memory industry remain healthy.

客戶對產能的投資是理性和有紀律的，存儲器行業的整體經濟狀況保持健康。

In foundry and logic, overall spending levels are strong as customers optimize capacity at the current nodes while concurrently pushing forward the leading edge.

在代工和邏輯方面，隨著客戶優化當前節點的容量，同時推動領先優勢，整體支出水平很高。

After a long time in development, the first EUV tools are expected to enter volume production in 2019.

經過長時間的開發，首批 EUV 工具預計將於 2019 年進入量產。

To support the initial adoption of EUV, we are seeing additional investments in these long lead time systems in 2018 and 2019 creating share headwinds for Applied during this period.

為了支持 EUV 的初步採用，我們看到 2018 年和 2019 年對這些長交貨期系統的額外投資在此期間對 Applied 造成了份額阻力。

In aggregate, even with the current challenges I've just described, overall wafer fab equipment spending remains at consistently high levels.

總的來說，即使面臨我剛才描述的當前挑戰，整體晶圓廠設備支出仍保持在一貫的高水平。

We still believe that 2018 and 2019 combined spending will be around $100 billion.

我們仍然認為 2018 年和 2019 年的總支出將在 1000 億美元左右。

Relative to our prior view, we now see '18 as slightly higher than '19.

相對於我們之前的觀點，我們現在認為 18 年略高於 19 年。

While we are cognizant of macroeconomic and global trade factors, our long-term perspective on major technology trends is unchanged.

雖然我們了解宏觀經濟和全球貿易因素，但我們對主要技術趨勢的長期看法並未改變。

Fundamental growth drivers are firmly in place as more industries are becoming increasingly dependent on technology, data, and specifically, silicon to define their futures.

隨著越來越多的行業越來越依賴技術、數據，尤其是矽來定義它們的未來，基本的增長動力已經牢牢佔據。

One of the things that distinguishes Applied from our peers is our broad technology base and the diversity of our products.

Applied 與同行的區別之一是我們廣泛的技術基礎和我們產品的多樣性。

This provides us with a platform for future growth and the flexibility to deliver solid financial performance in a variety of market conditions.

這為我們提供了一個未來增長的平台和在各種市場條件下提供穩健財務業績的靈活性。

Although our first fiscal quarter will be down sequentially and year-on-year, we will deliver performance that is approximately equivalent to our average quarterly run rate in 2017 when spending patterns were much more favorable for Applied.

儘管我們的第一個財政季度將環比和同比下降，但我們將提供大約相當於 2017 年平均季度運行率的業績，當時支出模式對 Applied 有利得多。

This is because we've been building out our product portfolio to better address major technology inflections.

這是因為我們一直在構建我們的產品組合，以更好地應對重大技術變化。

For example, we significantly improved our position in memory, adding nearly 10 points of market share in the past 5 years.

例如，我們顯著提升了我們在內存領域的地位，在過去 5 年中增加了近 10 個百分點的市場份額。

At the same time, we've scaled our service business at a 15% compound annual growth rate over the past 4 years with plenty of headroom for further expansion.

與此同時，我們在過去 4 年中以 15% 的複合年增長率擴展了我們的服務業務，並為進一步擴張提供了充足的空間。

Additionally, we've grown our display business at more than 25% compound annual growth over the past 6 years.

此外，我們的顯示器業務在過去 6 年中以超過 25% 的複合年增長率增長。

While our display growth trajectory may not be linear and, as we previously stated, revenues could be down around 20% in 2019, I feel very good about our future opportunities.

雖然我們的顯示器增長軌跡可能不是線性的，而且正如我們之前所說，2019 年的收入可能會下降 20% 左右，但我對我們未來的機會感到非常滿意。

Across the company, we're taking a long-term perspective, and we continue to prioritize our spending towards R&D to enable major technology inflections for our customers and drive our long-term growth strategy.

在整個公司，我們從長遠的角度來看，我們繼續優先考慮研發支出，以便為我們的客戶實現重大技術變革，並推動我們的長期增長戰略。

I strongly believe that over the next decade, AI and big data will transform almost every sector of the economy, and that the foundation of those changes are electronics and semiconductors.

我堅信，在接下來的十年裡，人工智能和大數據將改變經濟的幾乎每一個領域，而這些變化的基礎是電子和半導體。

Enabling this AI, big data future will require new types of computing at the edge and in the cloud, lower-cost, lower-power chips and abundant storage.

啟用這種人工智能，大數據的未來將需要邊緣和雲端的新型計算、低成本、低功耗的芯片和豐富的存儲空間。

As classic Moore's Law scaling slows down, the semiconductor industry's traditional playbook is not providing the necessary improvements in power, performance, area and cost.

隨著經典的摩爾定律縮放速度放緩，半導體行業的傳統劇本並未在功率、性能、面積和成本方面提供必要的改進。

As a result, a new playbook is needed, which includes: the development of entirely new chip architectures; new 3D structures within the chip; the integration of new exotic materials; new ways to shrink feature geometries including EUV lithography and self-aligned patterning; and advanced packaging techniques to connect chips together in new ways.

因此，需要一個新的劇本，其中包括：開發全新的芯片架構；芯片內的新 3D 結構；新奇異材料的整合；縮小特徵幾何形狀的新方法，包括 EUV 光刻和自對準圖案；和先進的封裝技術，以新的方式將芯片連接在一起。

All 5 of these areas require major advances in materials engineering and create a wealth of opportunity for Applied.

所有這 5 個領域都需要材料工程取得重大進展，並為 Applied 創造了大量機會。

As a result, we are evolving our strategy and making investments to position the company to play a larger and more valuable role in the AI, big data era.

因此，我們正在改進我們的戰略並進行投資，以使公司在人工智能、大數據時代發揮更大、更有價值的作用。

We are creating new and unique capabilities for the industry and developing entirely new types of products.

我們正在為行業創造新的和獨特的能力，並開發全新類型的產品。

Earlier today, we announced plans for our new materials engineering technology accelerator, or META Center, which is expected to open in 2019 in New York.

今天早些時候，我們宣布了新材料工程技術加速器或 META 中心的計劃，該加速器預計將於 2019 年在紐約開放。

The META Center will extend the capabilities of our Maydan Technology Center in Silicon Valley to address the ecosystem's growing need to accelerate innovation from materials to systems.

META 中心將擴展我們位於矽谷的 Maydan 技術中心的能力，以滿足生態系統日益增長的加速從材料到系統創新的需求。

This expansion of our R&D infrastructure will allow us to work with system architects, chip designers and the manufacturing community in new ways.

我們研發基礎設施的這種擴展將使我們能夠以新的方式與系統架構師、芯片設計師和製造社區合作。

It's designed to support new types of collaboration from early prototyping to rapid transfer of new technologies from lab to fab.

它旨在支持新型協作，從早期原型製作到新技術從實驗室到工廠的快速轉移。

We're already seeing strong pull for earlier and deeper customer engagements, especially for new integrated material solutions where we can combine multiple processes together often within a single system.

我們已經看到了更早和更深入的客戶參與的強大吸引力，特別是對於新的集成材料解決方案，我們可以在單個系統中經常將多個流程組合在一起。

We are bringing together our broad portfolio of technologies and our ability to understand the interaction between materials creation, materials removal and materials modification to address our customers' increasingly complex integration challenges.

我們將廣泛的技術組合和我們理解材料創建、材料去除和材料修改之間相互作用的能力結合在一起，以應對客戶日益複雜的集成挑戰。

I'm excited about the value we can create at current, future and trailing nodes.

我對我們可以在當前、未來和尾隨節點創造的價值感到興奮。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, let me quickly summarize.

在我將電話交給 Dan 之前，讓我快速總結一下。

While the industry is navigating near-term headwinds, spending remains robust.

儘管該行業正在應對近期逆風，但支出依然強勁。

We believe this demonstrates that wafer fab equipment is structurally larger and less cyclical than in the past.

我們認為這表明晶圓廠設備在結構上比過去更大且週期性更小。

Although the current spending patterns within wafer fab equipment do not play to Applied's strengths, we are still delivering strong financial performance, thanks to the breadth of our product portfolio.

儘管晶圓廠設備目前的支出模式沒有發揮 Applied 的優勢，但由於我們產品組合的廣泛性，我們仍然提供強勁的財務業績。

We remain focused on positioning the company for the long term, expanding our role in the AI, big data era and winning the major technology inflections ahead.

我們仍然專注於公司的長期定位，擴大我們在人工智能、大數據時代的作用，並贏得未來的重大技術變革。

Now I'll turn the call over to Dan.

現在我會把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gary.

謝謝，加里。

I'd also like to thank the teams for delivering record revenue and operating profit in fiscal 2018.

我還要感謝團隊在 2018 財年創造了創紀錄的收入和營業利潤。

Today, I'll share my perspective on our industry outlook then summarize our Q4 financial results, provide our Q1 business outlook and discuss the growth investments we're making in upstate New York.

今天，我將分享我對行業前景的看法，然後總結我們第四季度的財務業績，提供我們第一季度的業務展望，並討論我們在紐約州北部進行的增長投資。

As Gary said, overall industry demand is weaker today than in the first half of 2018, and we expect our first quarter results to be lower sequentially.

正如 Gary 所說，今天的整體行業需求比 2018 年上半年要弱，我們預計第一季度的業績將環比下降。

Our guidance includes the impact of a recent export restriction.

我們的指引包括近期出口限制的影響。

Without this, we would have guided our semiconductor revenue to be higher sequentially.

如果沒有這一點，我們本可以引導我們的半導體收入連續增長。

While we're not ready to call the bottom of the current cycle, we are optimistic that we're not going to see the same kind of volatility we saw in the past as an industry or as a company.

雖然我們還沒有準備好稱當前週期已見底，但我們樂觀地認為，我們不會看到過去作為行業或公司看到的那種波動。

Our semi equipment guidance for Q1 implies annualized WFE in the mid-$40 billion range.

我們對第一季度的半設備指導意味著年化 WFE 在 400 億美元左右。

It's important to note that this is about $10 billion higher than in all of the years prior to the current cycle.

重要的是要注意，這比當前週期之前的所有年份都高出約 100 億美元。

And it reinforces our positive industry thesis, which is based on 3 core beliefs.

它強化了我們基於 3 個核心信念的積極行業論點。

First, we see a large market for PCs and mobile devices plus the emergence of a big wave of new demand drivers related to AI and big data.

首先，我們看到個人電腦和移動設備的巨大市場，以及與人工智能和大數據相關的新需求驅動浪潮的出現。

Second, we believe that after a long downtrend, capital equipment intensity has stabilized.

其次，我們認為在經歷了長期的下降趨勢後，資本設備強度已經趨於穩定。

And third, our customers are more profitable and taking proactive steps to keep supply and demand in balance.

第三，我們的客戶利潤更高，並採取積極措施保持供需平衡。

We believe the industry is more attractive and the company is more attractive.

我們認為行業更具吸引力，公司更具吸引力。

Over the past 6 years, Applied has built a bigger, more diverse, more resilient business.

在過去的 6 年裡，Applied 建立了一個更大、更多樣化、更具彈性的業務。

In fact, in both 2017 and 2018, we delivered more than twice the operating profit of any other year in the past decade.

事實上，在 2017 年和 2018 年，我們實現的營業利潤是過去十年中任何其他年份的兩倍多。

Looking forward to 2019, our customers point to an improving demand outlook in the second half of the year.

展望 2019 年，我們的客戶指出下半年的需求前景將有所改善。

Even if the shape of the recovery off of our Q1 guidance is shallower and more gradual, we believe we will generate higher earnings this fiscal year than in 2017.

即使我們第一季度指導的複蘇形式更淺、更漸進，我們相信本財年我們將產生比 2017 年更高的收益。

Our improved profitability enables us to continue making disciplined investments in our future growth opportunities while simultaneously delivering attractive cash returns to shareholders.

我們提高的盈利能力使我們能夠繼續對未來的增長機會進行有紀律的投資，同時為股東提供有吸引力的現金回報。

Now I'll summarize our Q4 results.

現在我將總結我們第四季度的結果。

We delivered revenue and non-GAAP gross margin that was slightly above the midpoint of our guidance.

我們交付的收入和非 GAAP 毛利率略高於我們指導的中點。

We held non-GAAP OpEx below the midpoint and generated non-GAAP earnings of $0.97, just above the midpoint.

我們將非 GAAP 運營支出維持在中點以下，非 GAAP 收益為 0.97 美元，略高於中點。

Turning to the segments.

轉向細分市場。

Semiconductor systems revenue declined by about 5% year-over-year and was slightly below our expectation.

半導體系統收入同比下降約 5%，略低於我們的預期。

Non-GAAP operating margin declined to 29.6%.

非 GAAP 營業利潤率下降至 29.6%。

Our global services business revenue grew by 18% year-over-year to $977 million, and non-GAAP operating margin increased to 29.7%.

我們的全球服務業務收入同比增長 18% 至 9.77 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利潤率增至 29.7%。

Our display group delivered $702 million in revenue, which was slightly above our target.

我們的顯示器部門實現了 7.02 億美元的收入，略高於我們的目標。

Non-GAAP operating margin remained high at 29.3%.

非 GAAP 營業利潤率保持在 29.3% 的高位。

Turning to the balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。

Operating cash flow improved to 27% or nearly $1.1 billion.

經營現金流提高至 27% 或近 11 億美元。

We returned $946 million to shareholders, including $751 million in buybacks.

我們向股東返還了 9.46 億美元，其中包括 7.51 億美元的回購。

We ended the period with $5.6 billion in cash and investments on the balance sheet and $4.3 billion remaining in our buyback authorization.

我們在資產負債表上以 56 億美元的現金和投資結束了這一時期，我們的回購授權中剩餘 43 億美元。

We enter fiscal 2019 with a strong backlog of over $6 billion.

進入 2019 財年，我們積壓了超過 60 億美元的訂單。

Next, I'll provide our Q1 guidance.

接下來，我將提供我們的第一季度指導。

We expect company revenue to be between $3.56 billion and $3.86 billion.

我們預計公司收入將在 35.6 億美元至 38.6 億美元之間。

Within the outlook, we expect silicon systems revenue to be down by about 21% year-over-year.

在展望中，我們預計矽系統收入將同比下降約 21%。

Services revenue should be up by about 7% year-over-year.

服務收入應同比增長約 7%。

As a reminder, Q1 of 2018 was exceptionally strong for our services business with revenue up 30% over Q1 2017.

提醒一下，2018 年第一季度我們的服務業務異常強勁，收入比 2017 年第一季度增長 30%。

Our display revenue should be up by about 10% year-over-year.

我們的顯示器收入應同比增長約 10%。

We expect non-GAAP gross margin of around 44.6% and non-GAAP OpEx of around $750 million plus or minus $10 million.

我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 44.6%，非 GAAP 運營支出約為 7.5 億美元，上下浮動 1000 萬美元。

Non-GAAP earnings should be in the range of $0.75 to $0.83 per share.

非 GAAP 收益應在每股 0.75 美元至 0.83 美元之間。

Our non-GAAP tax rate expectation is approximately 12%.

我們的非 GAAP 稅率預期約為 12%。

As a reminder, this is up by nearly 6 points when compared to last year's rate.

提醒一下，與去年的比率相比，這一數字上升了近 6 個百分點。

Now I'll close by discussing the investments we're making in New York.

現在我將通過討論我們在紐約進行的投資來結束。

Earlier today, Applied and the state announced plans to create one of the most advanced R&D centers in the world.

今天早些時候，Applied 和國家宣布了創建世界上最先進的研發中心之一的計劃。

The META Center will pioneer the materials, process technologies and architectures our customers will need to overcome the industry scaling challenges.

META 中心將開創我們的客戶克服行業規模挑戰所需的材料、工藝技術和架構。

Applied is committed to investing $600 million over the first 7 years of the agreement, including both cash and in-kind contributions.

Applied 承諾在協議的前 7 年內投資 6 億美元，包括現金和實物捐助。

Our planned investments will not raise the operating expense targets in our longer-term financial model.

我們計劃的投資不會提高我們長期財務模型中的運營費用目標。

New York state will invest $250 million to purchase and install tools and equipment.

紐約州將投資2.5億美元購買和安裝工具和設備。

State funding of the META Center is subject to a variety of approvals, and we expect to secure public funding by the end of this calendar year.

META 中心的國家資金需要獲得各種批准，我們預計在本日曆年年底之前獲得公共資金。

We intend to ramp up our activities in calendar 2019 and target pilot production in the second half of the year.

我們打算在 2019 年加強我們的活動，並在今年下半年進行試生產。

The META Center will dramatically expand our capacity to collaborate with our customers to accelerate breakthroughs in semiconductor power, performance and cost.

META 中心將極大地擴展我們與客戶合作的能力，以加速半導體功率、性能和成本方面的突破。

Now Mike, let's begin with the Q&A.

現在邁克，讓我們從問答環節開始。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

(Operator Instructions) Let's please begin.

（操作員說明）讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from C.J. Muse from Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, a question in terms of market share and positioning.

我想，是市場份額和定位方面的問題。

So you talked about EUV as a likely headwind into '19 but also investments you're making in terms of technological inflection.

所以你談到 EUV 可能是進入 19 年的逆風，但也是你在技術轉變方面進行的投資。

So curious, can you kind of walk through the timing where we could see a resumption of share gains on the WFE side.

很好奇，您能否介紹一下我們可以看到 WFE 方面恢復股票收益的時間。

And also, as you think about mix in 2019, does that allow you to perhaps at least grow in line?

而且，當你考慮 2019 年的組合時，這是否能讓你至少保持一致增長？

Would love to hear your thoughts, I guess, both '19 as well as inflections beyond that.

我想很想听聽您的想法，包括 19 年以及之後的變化。

Thanks for the question, C.J. Let me give you some color on market share, and I think it's useful to think about 3 time frames: what we've done, what we see today and where we're going.

謝謝你的問題，C.J. 讓我給你一些關於市場份額的顏色，我認為考慮 3 個時間框架是有用的：我們做了什麼，我們今天看到了什麼以及我們要去哪裡。

When I joined Applied in 2012, we substantially shifted investment towards big inflections.

當我在 2012 年加入 Applied 時，我們將投資大幅轉向大的變化。

As a result, in the 6 years through 2017, we held or increased share for 6 consecutive years.

因此，在截至 2017 年的 6 年裡，我們連續 6 年持有或增加股份。

I think we were up 5 years and flat 1. And also, we increased share in memory where we had a big focus.

我認為我們增長了 5 年，持平了 1 年。而且，我們增加了我們重點關注的內存份額。

So we increased our total share of memory spending by about 10 points.

因此，我們將內存支出的總份額增加了大約 10 個百分點。

So in the near term, as I talked about in the prepared remarks, 2018, we're gaining or holding share in the vast majority of our businesses, but we also see rapid growth in EUV and also in other markets where we don't compete.

所以在短期內，正如我在 2018 年準備好的評論中所說，我們在絕大多數業務中都獲得或持有份額，但我們也看到 EUV 以及我們沒有的其他市場的快速增長競爭。

So as a result, we do expect our share to decline in 2018.

因此，我們確實預計我們的份額將在 2018 年下降。

After many years of development, we expect to see the first EUV tools used in production beginning in 2019.

經過多年的發展，我們預計將於 2019 年看到首批用於生產的 EUV 工具。

Those tools have very long lead times.

這些工具的交貨時間很長。

And to support the initial adoption, we expect high spending in 2018 and 2019, creating a mix headwind for our overall WFE share.

為了支持最初的採用，我們預計 2018 年和 2019 年的支出會很高，從而對我們的整體 WFE 份額造成不利影響。

Of course, those long lead time shipments also are a positive indicator for our future business.

當然，那些交貨期長的出貨量也是我們未來業務的一個積極指標。

And another thing -- you talked, C.J., about mix.

還有一件事——C.J.，你談到了混音。

Another important near-term factor to think about is 3D NAND spending.

另一個需要考慮的重要近期因素是 3D NAND 支出。

Once that recovers, the mix will become a lot more favorable for us.

一旦恢復，這種組合將對我們更加有利。

And then over -- the last thing is over the longer term -- over the last couple of months, I've spent time with many customers and still believe that the industry needs a new playbook beyond 2D scaling, and I deeply believe that Applied is in the best position to enable this new playbook.

然後——最後一件事是長期的——在過去的幾個月裡，我和很多客戶一起度過了一段時間，我仍然相信這個行業需要一個超越 2D 縮放的新劇本，我深信 Applied處於啟用此新劇本的最佳位置。

I heard this from all of the customers I met over the last couple of months.

我從過去幾個月遇到的所有客戶那裡聽到了這一點。

And we've all seen classic Moore's Law scaling slowing.

我們都看到了經典的摩爾定律擴展放緩。

All the customers in the industry want more ways to drive PPAC, power, performance, area and cost.

業內所有客戶都希望通過更多方式來推動 PPAC、功率、性能、面積和成本。

So as we've communicated before, we're driving a new playbook that includes 5 different techniques that I've been talking about, including developing entirely new chip architectures, new 3D structures within the chip, the integration of new materials, new ways to shrink including EUV and self-aligned patterning and advanced packaging techniques to connect chips together in new ways.

因此，正如我們之前交流過的那樣，我們正在推動一本新劇本，其中包括我一直在談論的 5 種不同技術，包括開發全新的芯片架構、芯片內的新 3D 結構、新材料的集成、新方法縮小包括 EUV 和自對準圖案以及先進的封裝技術，以新的方式將芯片連接在一起。

All 5 of those areas require major advances in materials engineering and create great growth opportunities for Applied.

所有這 5 個領域都需要材料工程取得重大進展，並為 Applied 創造巨大的增長機會。

As a result of that, we're creating new and unique capabilities for the industry, investing in the META Center to accelerate materials to systems where there's tremendous value and developing entirely new types of products that move the needle for our customers and for Applied.

因此，我們正在為該行業創造新的和獨特的能力，投資於 META 中心以加速材料進入具有巨大價值的系統，並開發全新類型的產品，為我們的客戶和 Applied 提供技術支持。

And fair to say the mix is hard to predict right now, C.J., so it will depend on what happens in '19, '20 in terms of things like 3D NAND, like Gary said.

公平地說，C.J. 現在很難預測這種組合，所以這將取決於 19 年、20 年在 3D NAND 等方面發生的情況，就像 Gary 說的那樣。

So I think we'll stay tuned on trying to make that prediction this early in the year.

所以我認為我們會繼續關註今年年初做出的預測。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Atif Malik。

Gary, I had a question for you on display.

加里，我有一個問題想問你。

Can you talk about the puts and takes for your down 20% display outlook next year?

你能談談你明年 20% 的展示前景的看跌期權和看跌期權嗎？

We hear LG and Samsung ramping and converting capacity on Gen 8 OLED TVs with some weakness on the flexible Gen 6 lines.

我們聽說 LG 和三星在第 8 代 OLED 電視上提高和轉換產能，但靈活的第 6 代產品線有些弱點。

Also, you guys launched a couple of new products at OLED World Summit were e-beam, CD metrology and e-beam failure.

另外，你們在 OLED 世界峰會上推出了幾個新產品，分別是電子束、CD 計量和電子束故障。

So just your thoughts on display market next year.

所以只是你對明年顯示器市場的看法。

Thanks for the question, Atif.

謝謝你的問題，Atif。

So happy to give you color on our display business.

很高興為您介紹我們的展示業務。

As we've said before, we've grown display a tremendous amount over the last 6 years at about 25% compound annual growth rate.

正如我們之前所說，我們在過去 6 年中以大約 25% 的複合年增長率增長了巨大的數量。

For 2019, we've talked about the business declining in the range of 15% to 20%.

對於 2019 年，我們談到業務下降 15% 至 20%。

And given the elevated risk, I believe we're likely to be at the low end of that range.

鑑於風險升高，我相信我們可能處於該範圍的低端。

So then if you go into the different segments, in the TV segment, I continue to expect our customers will transition to Gen 10.5 technology because it's strategically important for them to deliver lower cost for large-screen TVs.

因此，如果你進入不同的細分市場，在電視領域，我繼續預計我們的客戶將過渡到 Gen 10.5 技術，因為對他們來說，為大屏幕電視提供更低的成本在戰略上很重要。

And as we've previously communicated, with Gen 10.5 panels, you can produce 8 65-inch TVs, and you only get 3 on a Gen 8.5 panel.

正如我們之前所說，使用 Gen 10.5 面板，您可以生產 8 台 65 英寸電視，而在 Gen 8.5 面板上只能生產 3 台。

So for large-screen TVs, it is strategically compelling to move to those larger panel sizes.

因此，對於大屏幕電視，轉向更大的面板尺寸具有戰略意義。

And recent discussions with customers, we don't see any change in customers' plans.

在最近與客戶的討論中，我們沒有看到客戶的計劃有任何變化。

In the smartphone area, demand is going to be flat year-over-year.

在智能手機領域，需求將同比持平。

But we continue to see OLED as the best technology for the future for a number of different reasons, and we believe that OLED will recover as more suppliers are able to produce at a higher yield.

但出於多種不同的原因，我們繼續將 OLED 視為未來最好的技術，並且我們相信，隨著更多供應商能夠以更高的產量生產，OLED 將會復蘇。

So overall, we see a lot of good opportunities to continue to drive our display business despite 2019 for the first time in, I think, 7 years seeing a decline in the business.

因此，總的來說，儘管我認為 2019 年是 7 年來首次出現業務下滑，但我們看到了很多繼續推動我們的顯示器業務的好機會。

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Gary, I have a question for you, a follow-up on your comments about share movements and EUV, and then I have a quick follow-up for Dan.

加里，我有一個問題要問你，跟進你對股票走勢和 EUV 的評論，然後我有一個快速跟進丹的問題。

So I'm trying to reconcile what you just described, and that makes sort of sense.

所以我試圖調和你剛才描述的內容，這是有道理的。

So EUV is ramping.

所以 EUV 正在崛起。

You're mechanically losing share in that context, but you're expecting to regain share when you bring materials technologies that will go along with EUV lithography.

在這種情況下，你會機械地失去份額，但當你引入將與 EUV 光刻一起使用的材料技術時，你會期望重新獲得份額。

But at the same time, in the last few weeks, I heard like TSMC, I mean, reiterating that say that's for longer, so like the large foundry player that they don't expect CapEx to grow significantly.

但與此同時，在過去的幾周里，我聽到台積電，我的意思是，重申說這會持續更長的時間，所以就像大型代工企業一樣，他們預計資本支出不會顯著增長。

Then your peer, ASML, is saying the same.

那麼您的同行 ASML 也在說同樣的話。

And so does that mean you have a different perspective and you think overall CapEx is going to continue to grow in foundry significantly and even grow faster than revenues?

那麼，這是否意味著您有不同的觀點，您認為代工廠的整體資本支出將繼續顯著增長，甚至增長速度快於收入增長？

Yes, thanks for the question.

是的，謝謝你的提問。

So I think our perspective longer term, Pierre, hasn't changed.

因此，皮埃爾，我認為我們的長期觀點沒有改變。

And I've spent many, many meetings with customers over the last couple of months.

在過去的幾個月裡，我與客戶進行了很多次會面。

We strongly believe that the industry needs a new playbook and that all of those 5 techniques I talked about earlier are absolutely crucial to deliver power, performance, area and cost needed for this big data, AI era.

我們堅信，該行業需要一本新的劇本，而我之前談到的所有這 5 種技術對於提供這個大數據、AI 時代所需的功率、性能、面積和成本絕對至關重要。

Now silicon and electronics are going to be at the foundation of all of those major industry transformations, changing in a profound way all the aspects of our life.

現在，矽和電子產品將成為所有這些重大行業變革的基礎，深刻改變我們生活的方方面面。

We still definitely believe that.

我們仍然堅信這一點。

And if you look at where we need to go with 1,000 times improvement of performance per watt, you can look certainly at what we've said in the past.

如果您看看我們需要將每瓦性能提高 1,000 倍，您肯定可以看看我們過去說過的話。

You can look at what other people are saying also that talk about those 5 areas of focus.

您也可以看看其他人在談論這 5 個重點領域時所說的話。

And I deeply believe we're in a better position longer term than we've ever been.

而且我深信，從長遠來看，我們處於比以往任何時候都更好的位置。

Now certainly, there's a headwind in '18 and '19.

現在可以肯定的是，18 年和 19 年有逆風。

After a long time, you have the initial adoption of long lead time EUV tools.

很長一段時間後，您初步採用了長交付週期的 EUV 工具。

They'll go into production for the first time in 2019.

他們將在 2019 年首次投入生產。

That's going to certainly provide a headwind for us in the near term.

這肯定會在短期內給我們帶來阻力。

But longer term, I definitely believe the industry is not going to get where we need to go with doing what we've done in the past.

但從長遠來看，我絕對相信這個行業不會像我們過去所做的那樣達到我們需要去的地方。

I think it's also very clear with Moore's Law -- classic Moore's Law slowing down that you have to drive this new playbook.

我認為摩爾定律也很清楚——經典的摩爾定律放慢了你必須推動這個新劇本的速度。

And there's tremendous value in going from materials to systems at a much faster rate.

以更快的速度從材料到系統具有巨大的價值。

And again, everything I heard in meetings with customers over the last couple of months totally reiterates that that's the right strategy.

再一次，我在過去幾個月與客戶會面時聽到的一切都完全重申這是正確的策略。

And so that's my thought.

這就是我的想法。

And I think, Pierre, you said you might have had a follow-up for Dan.

我想，皮埃爾，你說過你可能對丹進行了跟進。

I don't know if you still do, just checking.

我不知道你是否仍然這樣做，只是檢查一下。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

Gary, it looks like there is a general view that next year the mix of WFE is going to skew more towards foundry and logic versus memory.

加里，似乎普遍認為明年 WFE 的組合將更多地傾向於代工和邏輯而不是內存。

In that scenario, is it fair to assume that your profitability profile or your margin profile should be better selling into foundry, logic versus memory?

在這種情況下，假設您的盈利狀況或利潤率狀況應該更好地銷售給代工廠，邏輯與內存，這是否公平？

And then a quick housekeeping for Dan.

然後是丹的快速家務。

What's the impact from export control on Fujian?

出口管制對福建有何影響？

Was it about $100 million for you guys?

對你們來說是大約 1 億美元嗎？

Thanks, Krish.

謝謝，克里什。

Let me share with you a little bit of what we're seeing around the WFE market and then come to the profitability -- the implications that that has for the profitability of the company.

讓我與您分享一些我們在 WFE 市場上看到的情況，然後談談盈利能力——這對公司盈利能力的影響。

So in the prepared comments, we talked about 2018 and 2019 combined being around $100 billion.

因此，在準備好的評論中，我們談到 2018 年和 2019 年加起來約為 1000 億美元。

I would say, given the elevated risk profile of the environment we find ourselves in, that's -- our expectations around '19 have probably softened in the last 3 months.

我想說的是，鑑於我們發現自己所處環境的風險狀況較高，那就是——我們對 19 年的預期在過去 3 個月中可能已經有所緩和。

We now see '19 below 2018.

我們現在看到 19 年低於 2018 年。

If I were to -- and I think it's premature to be point specific on either '18, '19 or the device types.

如果我要——而且我認為現在針對 '18、'19 或設備類型進行具體說明還為時過早。

But again, to just share a little bit of what we're thinking to help shape a view of the market, 2019 feels more like 2017 than it does 2018.

但是，再次分享一下我們的想法，以幫助塑造市場觀點，2019 年感覺更像 2017 年，而不是 2018 年。

And if I look at where we sit today in 2018 WFE, all-time high in terms of aggregate spend and strength across each of the 4 device types.

如果我看看我們今天在 2018 年 WFE 中的位置，4 種設備類型的總支出和實力都創下歷史新高。

And as I profile off of that view into '19, we would expect memory to be down and foundry, logic to be up.

當我將這種觀點描述為 19 年時，我們預計內存會下降，代工、邏輯會上升。

And then if I were to rank order the 4 device types as we look into '19 given everything we see today, foundry would be the strongest, then followed by logic, then followed by DRAM, then followed by NAND.

然後，如果我根據今天所看到的一切對 19 年的 4 種設備類型進行排序，代工將是最強大的，然後是邏輯，然後是 DRAM，然後是 NAND。

In terms of profitability, I think the best way to think about our business is less about end market profiling the 4 device types and more about the mix amongst our businesses.

就盈利能力而言，我認為考慮我們業務的最佳方式不是對 4 種設備類型進行終端市場分析，而是更多地考慮我們業務之間的組合。

The more of our leadership businesses and equipment that we sell, you'll see that be a favorable segment mix -- or a favorable product mix within the segment.

我們銷售的領先業務和設備越多，您就會發現這是一個有利的細分市場組合——或者該細分市場內有利的產品組合。

The less leadership business -- or the less leadership products we sell will certainly be a headwind from a margin perspective.

從利潤率的角度來看，領導業務越少——或者我們銷售的領導產品越少，肯定會成為不利因素。

So I'd look at it more as a product mix influence as opposed to end markets.

所以我更多地把它看作是產品組合的影響，而不是終端市場。

Okay.

好的。

And then the other part of the question was around this recent action that was directed by a particular Chinese customer.

然後問題的另一部分是圍繞最近由特定中國客戶指示的行動。

From what we see today, this feels like business as usual for the other customers in the region.

從我們今天所看到的情況來看，對於該地區的其他客戶來說，這感覺就像往常一樣。

And then regarding the geopolitical situation, we certainly believe in fair trade, and we think it's important for the overall ecosystem to have a constructive relationship between the U.S. and China.

然後關於地緣政治局勢，我們當然相信公平貿易，我們認為在整個生態系統中美中之間建立建設性關係很重要。

We can't speculate on any other actions that could take place.

我們無法推測可能發生的任何其他行動。

And of course, we continuously monitor the situation, and we're going to respond appropriately.

當然，我們會持續監控情況，並會做出適當的回應。

And then Dan, do you want to give color on the magnitude of the impact?

然後 Dan，你想說明影響的大小嗎？

Sure, Gary.

當然，加里。

So as we think about our guide into Q1 and we think about the export action that was taken against the one specific customer, we a quarter ago were expecting our semi business to be flat to up sequentially.

因此，當我們考慮進入第一季度的指南並考慮針對一個特定客戶採取的出口行動時，我們在一個季度前預計我們的半成品業務將持平至環比上升。

We guided down a bit.

我們向下引導了一點。

In the absence of this export restriction, we would have been up sequentially in our semi systems business into Q1.

如果沒有這種出口限制，我們的半系統業務將按順序進入第一季度。

And I would say that our revenue with that one customer in Q1 is a meaningful number.

我會說我們在第一季度與那個客戶的收入是一個有意義的數字。

So the EPS guidance we provided into Q1 reflects a significant reduction in semiconductor revenue along with an unfavorable mix within the product portfolio.

因此，我們在第一季度提供的每股收益指引反映了半導體收入的大幅減少以及產品組合中不利的組合。

And I think that gives you a sense of the impact of that action on the one customer.

我認為這可以讓您了解該行為對一位客戶的影響。

I don't think we want to be more specific since it is a direct read-through on one customer, but I think that's enough to give you a sense of what the impact to our company was in our fiscal Q1.

我不認為我們想要更具體，因為它是對一個客戶的直接閱讀，但我認為這足以讓你了解我們公司在第一財季的影響。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Gary, Dan, to the extent in your prepared comments, I think you said you're not prepared to call the January quarter -- January guidance a bottom.

加里，丹，就你準備好的評論而言，我認為你說過你不准備將一月份的季度——一月份的指導稱為底部。

I'm wondering, was that relative to the overall Applied revenue stream, the silicon business?

我想知道，這是否與應用材料公司的整體收入流、矽業務相關？

Was that a sequential comment or a year-over-year comment?

那是順序評論還是年度評論？

I guess, specifically, with the silicon business, Dan, being down over 20% year-over-year, I believe, relative to your Jan guidance, do you think that that will represent a year-over-year bottom that we can start to build off of?

我想，具體來說，矽業務 Dan 同比下降超過 20%，我相信，相對於您 1 月份的指導，您認為這將代表我們可以開始的同比底部嗎建立？

Or how should we think about that?

或者我們應該如何考慮？

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Let me share with you a little bit of what we're seeing in the market, and hopefully, it helps provide some context and color that gets at the essence of what you're asking about.

讓我與您分享一些我們在市場上看到的情況，希望它有助於提供一些背景和顏色，以了解您所問問題的本質。

I would say based on our customer conversations -- and the guidance we gave about not calling the bottom is specifically related to our semi business because I think that's where the biggest question in the market is today.

我會說基於我們的客戶對話——我們給出的關於不觸及底部的指導特別與我們的半導體業務有關，因為我認為這是當今市場上最大的問題所在。

Based on the customer conversations we're having, we think that first half 2019 would likely be higher than second half 2018.

根據我們正在進行的客戶對話，我們認為 2019 年上半年可能會高於 2018 年下半年。

But we also think given the elevated risk profile -- or the elevated risk environment we find ourselves in, geopolitical, trade, handsets, industrials being on the weaker side, but certainly offset by decent markets in PC, comm infrastructure, cloud CapEx, but as a package creates an elevated risk profile, we think it's prudent to create an expectation around a shallow, gradual, U-shaped recovery of the semi business into 2019.

但我們也認為，鑑於風險狀況升高——或者我們發現自己所處的風險環境升高，地緣政治、貿易、手機、工業處於較弱的一面，但肯定會被個人電腦、通信基礎設施、雲資本支出等體面的市場所抵消，但由於一攬子計劃導致風險狀況升高，我們認為謹慎的做法是圍繞半導體業務在 2019 年出現淺度、漸進、U 形復甦的預期。

And so for a variety of reasons, I don't think we want to put a stake in the ground and call it a definitive bottom, but we like what we see and are trying to be prudent in expectation setting.

因此，出於各種原因，我認為我們不想在地面上投入股份並將其稱為確定的底部，但我們喜歡我們所看到的，並試圖在預期設定上保持謹慎。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Despite the equipment ban on this China domestic DRAM that you guys are talking about here in Q1, there are at least 2 other major programs in China, 1 in NAND, 1 in DRAM that are potentially looking to kind of ramp next year.

儘管你們在第一季度在這裡談論的這種中國國內 DRAM 的設備禁令，但中國至少還有 2 個其他主要項目，1 個在 NAND 中，1 個在 DRAM 中，它們可能會在明年尋求某種程度的提升。

I think last quarter, you guys said that 2019 China domestic was looking more kind of heavily weighted towards foundry.

我想上個季度，你們說 2019 年中國國內看起來更傾向於代工。

Has your view changed in light of some of -- has your viewed changed in light of this activity with some of the other memory suppliers that are looking to potentially ramp both NAND and DRAM capabilities maybe starting second half of next year?

您的觀點是否因某些原因而改變 - 您的觀點是否因其他一些內存供應商正在尋求可能從明年下半年開始提高 NAND 和 DRAM 能力的活動而改變？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Harlan.

謝謝你的問題，哈倫。

Yes, as I said earlier, we don't really see any change in the activities with the other customers in the region.

是的，正如我之前所說，我們並沒有真正看到與該地區其他客戶的活動有任何變化。

Of course, we're going to continuously monitor that and respond to anything that we need to respond to.

當然，我們將持續監控並回應我們需要回應的任何事情。

But one thing that may be helpful is I give you color on our China business, how it's composed.

但可能有幫助的一件事是，我會為您介紹我們在中國的業務，它是如何組成的。

So our display, we have a large display business in China, and a little less than half of our revenue is semi systems.

所以我們的顯示器，我們在中國有很大的顯示器業務，我們的收入中只有不到一半是半系統。

Roughly half of that is multinational.

其中大約一半是跨國公司。

The other half is domestic.

另一半是國內的。

And for domestic, we're fairly balanced between foundry, logic and memory.

而對於國內，我們在代工、邏輯和內存之間相當平衡。

And when we look ahead to 2019 and beyond, consistent with what we've said before, we didn't see a hockey stick in terms of growth in the domestic market.

當我們展望 2019 年及以後時，與我們之前所說的一致，我們沒有看到國內市場增長方面的曲棍球棒。

And we continue to see modest growth in the semi market going forward.

我們繼續看到半成品市場的溫和增長。

So I would say, at least today, we don't see any change in behavior with our customers.

所以我想說，至少在今天，我們沒有看到客戶行為發生任何變化。

And that's basically the profile of the different parts of our business, which is pretty consistent with what we've said before.

這基本上就是我們業務不同部分的概況，這與我們之前所說的非常一致。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah from Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Romit Shah。

My question was on services.

我的問題是關於服務的。

So services had a pretty strong year in fiscal '18.

因此，服務業在 18 財年表現強勁。

It looks like it was up about 25% year-on-year, and you're guiding it down sequentially a bit for January, if I interpreted your comments correctly.

看起來它同比增長了約 25%，如果我對你的評論的解釋正確的話，你將在 1 月份將它按順序向下引導。

I guess, my question is does services at some point in fiscal '19 start to track the performance of FSG in fiscal '18?

我想，我的問題是服務是否會在 19 財年的某個時候開始追踪 FSG 在 18 財年的表現？

And should we be cognizant of that as we model out the quarters of this coming fiscal year?

在我們為即將到來的財政年度的季度建模時，我們是否應該意識到這一點？

Romit, thanks for the question.

羅密特，謝謝你的提問。

I think the best way to think about services growth, certainly, the installed base is an influencer, but it's not a direct read-through.

我認為考慮服務增長的最佳方式，當然，安裝基礎是一個影響者，但這不是直接通讀。

So I don't think that business will directly track the following year what our systems business does the prior year.

所以我不認為業務會直接跟踪下一年我們的系統業務在前一年所做的事情。

But there is a growth vector around the installed base.

但是安裝基礎周圍有一個增長向量。

There is a growth vector around the increasing complexity that the industry is facing and the challenges our customers are increasingly asking for help with to drive yields.

圍繞行業面臨的日益複雜性以及我們的客戶越來越多地尋求幫助以提高產量的挑戰，存在一個增長向量。

And the third is the strategy we have around comprehensive service agreements to get a bit more predictability in the business versus the transactional nature.

第三個是我們圍繞綜合服務協議制定的戰略，以便在業務和交易性質方面獲得更多的可預測性。

And so it's a multi-vector approach and strategy to growing the business.

因此，這是發展業務的多向量方法和戰略。

You point out that the company has done a great job executing that strategy.

你指出公司在執行該戰略方面做得很好。

2018 was a strong year, and our goal will be to grow that -- continue to grow that business at a 15% CAGR on a go-forward basis.

2018 年是強勁的一年，我們的目標是實現增長——在未來的基礎上繼續以 15% 的複合年增長率增長該業務。

So it's a business we feel good about, but I don't think you can make a direct read-through based on systems in any 1 year.

所以這是一個我們感覺很好的業務，但我不認為你可以在任何 1 年內基於系統直接通讀。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Vivek Arya。

Gary, if I look longer term, what is your relative exposure to the smartphone market directly, indirectly versus the enterprise or data center?

加里，如果我從長遠來看，與企業或數據中心相比，您直接、間接地接觸智能手機市場的相對風險是多少？

Because when I look over the last 5 years of growth in the semi cap equipment industry, it kind of coincided with the growth of high-end smartphones.

因為當我回顧半導體設備行業過去 5 年的增長時，它與高端智能手機的增長有點吻合。

But as they are slowing down, when can the enterprise and data center be big enough to offset those declines?

但隨著它們的放緩，企業和數據中心什麼時候才能足夠大以抵消這些下降呢？

And do you think it is possible that WFE kind of stays flattish for the next 2 to 3 years because of this dynamic?

你認為 WFE 有可能因為這種動態而在未來 2 到 3 年內保持平穩嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Vivek.

謝謝，維維克。

As we take a step back from what drives WFE, if we were to go back a decade in our industry, a vast majority of WFE was narrowly focused in and around the PC platform.

當我們從 WFE 的驅動因素上退後一步時，如果我們回到我們行業的十年前，絕大多數 WFE 都狹隘地專注於 PC 平台及其周圍。

Since then, we've diversified into mobility compute handsets.

從那時起，我們就多元化發展到移動計算手機領域。

We've got a leg in the data center.

我們在數據中心佔有一席之地。

You can see big data cloud service providers beginning to influence that.

你可以看到大數據云服務提供商開始影響這一點。

IoT is playing an increasingly large portion of semiconductor consumption as are things like autonomous driving and Industry 4.0.

物聯網在半導體消費中所佔的比重越來越大，自動駕駛和工業 4.0 等也是如此。

It's really hard to disaggregate those long-term technology trends that are increasingly depending on silicon and consuming silicon to a direct read-through on WFE.

很難將那些越來越依賴矽和消耗矽的長期技術趨勢分解為直接通讀 WFE。

That chain is extremely hard to disaggregate and attribute one to the other.

該鏈極難分解並將一個歸因於另一個。

The second thing I would say is units and handsets clearly are slowing down.

我要說的第二件事是單位和手機顯然正在放緩。

Content gains are still happening, and so we do see favorable trends in that industry.

內容收益仍在發生，因此我們確實看到了該行業的有利趨勢。

What I like is the broadening of the end market demand drivers that support our industry.

我喜歡的是支持我們行業的終端市場需求驅動因素的擴大。

And so as you take a look at how 2017 profiled, '18 and now a quick look into '19, you can see that our industry is structurally larger.

因此，當您查看 2017 年的概況、'18 和現在快速查看'19 時，您會發現我們的行業在結構上更大。

Even though the adjustments or headwinds in any given period or quarter are coming from different areas, you can see that that diversification is serving the industry well in terms of moderating a bit of the volatility the industry has seen historically.

儘管任何特定時期或季度的調整或逆風來自不同領域，但您可以看到，就緩和行業歷史上的波動性而言，多元化正在為行業提供良好的服務。

I would say as we roll the clock forward and we take a point of view on what we think aggregate semiconductor demand is going to be in this world, this is an industry that's $450 billion-ish today.

我想說的是，隨著時間的推移，我們對我們認為這個世界上半導體總需求的看法，這是一個今天價值 4500 億美元的行業。

It's going to be $600 billion, $700 billion, $800 billion at some point in the future manufacturing capacity to produce the wafers and chips that support an industry that's sized at those levels.

在未來的某個時候，生產晶圓和芯片以支持具有這些規模的行業的製造能力將達到 6000 億美元、7000 億美元、8000 億美元。

It's going to be a very favorable trend for our industry.

這對我們的行業來說將是一個非常有利的趨勢。

So if we were to be sitting here in 2025 talking about a $50 billion WFE, I would be extremely disappointed about that given what we know today.

因此，如果我們在 2025 年坐在這裡談論 500 億美元的 WFE，鑑於我們今天所知道的情況，我將對此感到非常失望。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

Dan, I just had a question about the share repo.

丹，我剛剛有一個關於股票回購的問題。

I think you bought back about $3.7 billion over the past 6 months at quite a bit higher prices than this.

我認為你在過去 6 個月中以比這高得多的價格回購了大約 37 億美元。

But you only bought back 750 this quarter at much lower prices.

但本季度您只以低得多的價格回購了 750 件。

So I'm just wondering what the strategy is going forward on the share repo.

所以我只是想知道股票回購的策略是什麼。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

So what we said about our capital allocation strategy is we're going to focus our excess cash on growing the company, maintaining a strong and healthy balance sheet and then returning excess cash to shareholders.

因此，我們所說的關於資本配置策略的內容是，我們將把多餘的現金集中在公司的發展上，維持強勁健康的資產負債表，然後將多餘的現金返還給股東。

I think what you see is us executing against that strategy.

我認為你看到的是我們正在執行該戰略。

If you narrow the time frame to any given quarter, the share repurchase may or may not be above where we trade on any given day.

如果您將時間範圍縮小到任何給定的季度，股票回購可能會或可能不會高於我們在任何給定日期的交易價。

If we take a look at what the company has done over a long period of time, in the last 2 decades, we've given back close to 90% of our free cash flow back to shareholders.

如果我們看一下公司在很長一段時間內所做的事情，在過去的 2 年裡，我們將近 90% 的自由現金流返還給了股東。

Our shares peaked at 1.7 billion shares outstanding.

我們的股票最高發行量為 17 億股。

Today, it's under 1 billion.

今天，它不到 10 億。

This is something the company has done for a very long time, not a new policy.

這是公司很長時間以來一直在做的事情，而不是新政策。

And if you look at our 3-year track record, the company has given back about $8 billion, and we've repurchased almost 20% of the company at an average price of $37.

如果你看看我們 3 年的業績記錄，公司已經回饋了大約 80 億美元，我們以平均 37 美元的價格回購了公司近 20% 的股份。

And so I think, over the long run, the company has been disciplined and respectful of shareholders in the way in which we manage our free cash flow.

因此，我認為，從長遠來看，公司在管理自由現金流的方式上一直遵守紀律並尊重股東。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I wanted to follow up on your market share comments.

我想跟進您對市場份額的評論。

You talked about headwinds given the insertion of EUV.

你談到了插入 EUV 的逆風。

But Gary, do you have any expectations for your positioning in the markets that you do participate in: etch, dep, CMP, epi?

但是加里，你對你在你所參與的市場中的定位有什麼期望：蝕刻、dep、CMP、epi？

Is it fair to say that your competitive positioning is still improving in the markets that you actually serve?

可以說您的競爭定位在您實際服務的市場中仍在改善嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question Toshiya.

感謝 Toshiya 的提問。

We -- actually, in 2018, we're gaining or holding share in the vast majority of our businesses where we compete today.

我們 - 實際上，在 2018 年，我們在我們今天競爭的絕大多數業務中獲得或持有份額。

There are markets that we don't compete, and we have initiatives in those areas that -- where we have very strong pull from customers.

有些市場我們沒有競爭，我們在這些領域有舉措 - 我們對客戶有很強的吸引力。

And we're optimistic that over time that that will provide a significant increase in business for us.

我們樂觀地認為，隨著時間的推移，這將為我們帶來顯著的業務增長。

And then the other thing I would say, probably the biggest factor longer term is this new playbook I mentioned with the 5 different drivers.

然後我要說的另一件事，可能是長期最大的因素是我提到的 5 個不同驅動程序的新劇本。

That is really playing to the strengths -- uniquely to the strengths of Applied Materials with the breadth of our products, all the different materials creation, materials removal, materials modification and also the ability to combine all of these different technologies together in a single platform where you manage these interfaces.

這確實發揮了優勢——應用材料公司的獨特優勢在於我們產品的廣度，所有不同的材料創造、材料去除、材料改性以及將所有這些不同技術結合在一個平台上的能力您在哪裡管理這些接口。

That is a really, really, really valuable capability.

這是一種非常、非常、非常有價值的能力。

I met with all of our large customers in the last 2, 3 months.

在過去的 2、3 個月裡，我會見了我們所有的大客戶。

Many times, people running R&D, some of the feedback I was getting was just tremendous.

很多時候，負責研發的人給我的一些反饋非常棒。

People saying things that they didn't think were possible relative to power, performance, area and cost.

人們說出他們認為與功率、性能、面積和成本相關的事情是不可能的。

So those things will not play out in 2018 and not so much in 2019.

所以這些事情不會在 2018 年發生，在 2019 年也不會發生。

But really, that is the big driver for the industry.

但實際上，這是該行業的重要推動力。

This new playbook going forward is extremely important, and Applied is in a very unique position to enable those capabilities.

這本新的劇本非常重要，而 Applied 在實現這些功能方面處於非常獨特的位置。

So that's why we're investing.

這就是我們投資的原因。

That's why we announced the META Center.

這就是我們宣布 META 中心的原因。

And the goal is really to drive materials to systems many times faster than we're at today.

我們的目標實際上是將材料驅動到系統的速度比我們今天快很多倍。

We think there's tremendous value there.

我們認為那裡有巨大的價值。

And certainly, that's the feedback that we're getting from customers.

當然，這就是我們從客戶那裡得到的反饋。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

My question is on DRAM.

我的問題是關於 DRAM。

I guess, if I -- it seems like your DRAM numbers year-to-date have been quite strong in terms of your sales to DRAM companies despite the pushouts that we've seen.

我想，如果我 - 儘管我們已經看到了推出，但就您對 DRAM 公司的銷售而言，您今年迄今為止的 DRAM 數字似乎相當強勁。

And if we aggregate kind of the 3 equipment companies who shift to DRAM, they're all showing pretty significant strength, up in aggregate, I think, over 60%.

如果我們將轉向 DRAM 的 3 家設備公司加在一起，它們都顯示出相當大的實力，我認為總計超過 60%。

So I guess, I understand capital intensity is increasing, but it didn't seem like it was inflecting that much in any one year.

所以我想，我知道資本密集度正在增加，但它似乎並沒有在任何一年內發生如此大的變化。

So how is DRAM despite -- even with pushouts having such a robust year?

那麼，DRAM 的表現如何——即使今年推出的產品表現如此強勁？

And I guess, does that mean supply would accelerate next year?

我想，這是否意味著明年供應會加速？

Does it -- anything that you would tell us about the sustainability of that into '19 would be helpful.

做到了嗎 - 你會告訴我們關於 19 年的可持續性的任何事情都會有所幫助。

As we look at our position in DRAM, it gets back to a bit of the journey that gets us to where we're at from a market share standpoint today.

當我們審視我們在 DRAM 中的地位時，它回到了從今天的市場份額角度來看讓我們到達我們所處位置的一段旅程。

As Gary talked, since he came into the company or when he came into the company, we had one end market that was over 20% from a market share standpoint.

正如加里所說，自從他進入公司或他進入公司時，我們有一個終端市場，從市場份額的角度來看超過 20%。

All others were 15% or below.

所有其他人均為 15% 或以下。

And the company has done a very good job diversifying across those device types to where we're almost agnostic across the device types from a market share standpoint.

從市場份額的角度來看，該公司在這些設備類型的多樣化方面做得非常好，以至於我們幾乎無法了解這些設備類型。

And DRAM has been one of the beneficiaries.

而DRAM一直是受益者之一。

The company's worked really hard with customers to deliver innovation when their road maps require it and it's allowed us to increase our market share with those customers.

該公司非常努力地與客戶合作，在他們的路線圖需要創新時提供創新，這使我們能夠增加我們在這些客戶中的市場份額。

We're increasingly seeing in the periphery transistors logic-like processes being adopted to drive I/O speeds on the devices.

我們越來越多地看到外圍晶體管採用類似邏輯的工藝來提高設備上的 I/O 速度。

And that accrues benefits to us as well in some of our higher market share businesses.

這也為我們的一些更高市場份額的業務帶來了好處。

And so the set up around DRAM going forward is a good one for us.

因此，圍繞 DRAM 進行的設置對我們來說是一個很好的設置。

It's been good over the last several years.

這幾年一直很好。

And as you pointed out, we've done a good job driving market share there, and we like that setup going forward as well.

正如你所指出的，我們在推動市場份額方面做得很好，我們也喜歡這種設置。

So we like the progress we're making in DRAM.

所以我們喜歡我們在 DRAM 方面取得的進步。

And then Joe, if you're looking for the year-over-year in DRAM, we've been planning for it be sort of into '19 maybe not quite the 20% that we've seen, maybe at high teens to 20%.

然後 Joe，如果你正在尋找 DRAM 的年復一年，我們一直在計劃它進入 19 年可能不是我們看到的 20%，可能在十幾歲到 20 歲%。

And very good job right now for the customers doing very proactive supply and demand management and also a lot of pull for DRAM, especially the high-speed versions in the server market.

現在為客戶提供非常積極的供需管理並且對 DRAM 也有很大的吸引力，特別是服務器市場的高速版本。

So the customer -- from the customer conversations, it feels pretty good.

所以客戶——從客戶談話中，感覺很好。

It feels not as tight as it was but really proactive steps, and it looks like a decent outlook for next year.

感覺不像以前那麼緊，但確實是積極主動的步驟，看起來明年的前景不錯。

We think it's still going to be a strong year.

我們認為今年仍將是強勁的一年。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

Gary, maybe just to follow up on the playbook you're talking about with the 5 key factors in terms of the architecture and the structures within chips and continuing materials innovation.

加里，也許只是為了跟進你正在談論的劇本，其中涉及芯片內部架構和結構以及持續材料創新方面的 5 個關鍵因素。

Given your strong exposure to the foundry and logic segment, do you believe some of these variables would come into play at the 5-nanometer node?

鑑於您對代工和邏輯領域的深入了解，您認為其中一些變量會在 5 納米節點上發揮作用嗎？

Or is this something that, I guess, past 5 nanometers, and we'll see it more in the next decade?

或者我猜這是超過 5 納米的東西，我們會在未來十年看到更多？

Patrick, I think the great thing about many of those drivers is they're not only for future technology nodes.

帕特里克，我認為許多驅動程序的優點在於它們不僅適用於未來的技術節點。

You can use those -- some of those drivers can make a big difference, move the needle on current devices and also on trailing geometries, even planar transistors.

你可以使用它們——其中一些驅動程序可以產生很大的不同，在當前設備和尾部幾何形狀上移動指針，甚至平面晶體管。

So that's -- and we're seeing strong pull from customers across the board for some of those major drivers.

這就是 - 我們看到客戶對其中一些主要驅動因素的強烈拉動。

At the AI Design Forum in July and at the Electronics Resurgence Initiative, the DARPA conference in July, one of the examples we gave was a 1,000x improvement in leakage current.

在 7 月的 AI 設計論壇和 Electronics Resurgence Initiative，即 7 月的 DARPA 會議上，我們舉的一個例子是漏電流提高了 1,000 倍。

Again, many of these new technologies that we're driving can be used in trailing geometries and even current geometries.

同樣，我們正在推動的許多新技術都可以用於尾隨幾何甚至當前幾何。

So we don't need to wait for the adoption of 3-nanometer.

所以我們不需要等待 3 納米的採用。

Certainly, some of those technologies will be targeted for leading technology nodes, but some of them can be used today.

當然，其中一些技術將針對領先的技術節點，但其中一些技術今天就可以使用。

Our last question comes from Sidney Ho from Deutsche Bank.

我們的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I just want to go back to an earlier question on profitability.

我只想回到之前關於盈利能力的問題。

You guided gross margin at 44.6%, and that's quite a bit lower than your fiscal '20 model of 47%.

你指導的毛利率為 44.6%，這比你的 20 財年模型的 47% 低了很多。

I understand that's less about end market and more about product mix between leadership and growth products, but can you explain what situation will lead you to see higher growth for your leadership products versus growth?

我知道這與終端市場無關，而更多地與領導產品和增長產品之間的產品組合有關，但是您能解釋一下什麼情況會導致您看到領導產品與增長相比有更高的增長嗎？

And I would assume first half of '19, you'll see growth business a little slower because of memory spending.

而且我假設 19 年上半年，由於內存支出，您會看到業務增長速度有所放緩。

I mean, the display revenue's already at a lower level.

我的意思是，顯示器收入已經處於較低水平。

Just trying to think about what's the path for you to get to the fiscal '20 margin target from here, how much is driven by mix versus volume?

只是想想想你從這里達到 20 財年利潤率目標的途徑是什麼，有多少是由混合與數量驅動的？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Sidney.

謝謝，西德尼。

Let me try to unpack that and walk through this systematically.

讓我嘗試解開包裝並系統地介紹一下。

If there's anything I leave out, please follow up.

如果有什麼我遺漏的，請跟進。

What I would say about gross margins, we've done a good job over the last handful of years.

關於毛利率，我要說的是，我們在過去幾年裡做得很好。

We've increased the gross margin by about 500 basis points.

我們已將毛利率提高了約 500 個基點。

Q4 gross margin, in line with our guidance.

Q4 毛利率，符合我們的指引。

And as you know, actual gross margins in any given quarter are going to be a function of several factors.

如您所知，任何給定季度的實際毛利率將取決於多種因素。

There's a revenue level, segment, product mix, customer mix, factory activity, all of those will vary quarter-to-quarter.

收入水平、細分市場、產品組合、客戶組合、工廠活動，所有這些都會隨季度變化。

We're seeing Q1 as part of our guide sequentially lower from a revenue standpoint.

從收入的角度來看，我們將第一季度作為我們指南的一部分依次降低。

AGS continues to be a growing part of the mix.

AGS 繼續成為組合中不斷增長的一部分。

And we talked about an ERP transition throughout 2018 to risk mitigate customer deliveries.

我們還討論了整個 2018 年的 ERP 轉型，以降低客戶交付的風險。

At a point of the cycle where the supply chain was very tight, we kept an elevated level of inventory to make sure our customer needs were covered.

在供應鏈非常緊張的周期中，我們保持較高的庫存水平，以確保滿足客戶的需求。

We're going to be bringing that factory activity level down over the next 3, 4 quarters to bring that inventory more in line with the natural progression.

我們將在接下來的 3、4 個季度降低工廠活動水平，以使庫存更符合自然進程。

And so clearly, there's a number of factors at play.

很明顯，有很多因素在起作用。

And I guess, the thing that I would point to the most is aggregate revenue level and then how that revenue profiles across our various products and amongst our segments are going to be the largest influencer to gross margin.

我想，我最想指出的是總收入水平，然後是我們各種產品和細分市場的收入狀況將如何成為毛利率的最大影響因素。

Company has done a good job driving those margins historically.

從歷史上看，公司在推動這些利潤率方面做得很好。

I wouldn't look to too much in any one given quarter, and we're going to continue to work hard and make progress and continue to drive gross margins off of these levels.

在任何一個給定的季度，我都不會期待太多，我們將繼續努力工作並取得進展，並繼續將毛利率從這些水平上拉下來。

Dan, before we close the call, anything else you'd like to add just so we wrap up on time?

Dan，在我們結束通話之前，你還有什麼要補充的，以便我們按時結束嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，邁克。

I guess, I want to close with a couple of thoughts first.

我想，我想先談談一些想法。

We all know that we're in a challenging environment.

我們都知道我們處在一個充滿挑戰的環境中。

I think the company has delivered strong results in 2018, but we're definitely not satisfied.

我認為公司在 2018 年取得了強勁的業績，但我們絕對不滿意。

We know we still have a lot of work to do, and we're going to work aggressively to achieve the goals we set for the company.

我們知道我們還有很多工作要做，我們將積極工作以實現我們為公司設定的目標。

I guess, the second thing is, is if we fast-forward to a year from now, when we look back at our Q1 results, they may prove to be the low point of the year.

我想，第二件事是，如果我們快進到一年後，當我們回顧我們的第一季度業績時，它們可能被證明是今年的低點。

But we're not ready to call Q1 the bottom until we've collected multiple proof points across a variety of our businesses.

但是，在我們收集到各種業務的多個證據之前，我們還沒有準備好將第一季度稱為底部。

I think if you look at sort of the company's and the way we've engaged in the past, many of you that follow our journey, you know our style is to be transparent.

我認為，如果你看一下公司的類型以及我們過去參與的方式，那麼你們中的許多人都在關注我們的旅程，你就會知道我們的風格是透明的。

Our goal, our intent is to help you see what we see.

我們的目標，我們的意圖是幫助您看到我們所看到的。

As tough as the environment feels right now, the industry is substantially higher than it was even compared to prior peaks.

儘管現在的環境很艱難，但與之前的高峰相比，該行業的表現要好得多。

We're confident that our long-term thesis around the industry, the long-term technology trends are going to be favorable, and they're firmly in place.

我們相信我們圍繞行業的長期論點，長期技術趨勢將是有利的，而且它們已經牢固地存在。

We also believe we've built a more resilient business, a company that is more profitable.

我們也相信我們已經建立了一個更具彈性的業務，一個更有利可圖的公司。

It allows us to invest and uniquely be well positioned to drive the industry inflections that we already see on the horizon.

它使我們能夠投資並處於獨特的有利位置，以推動我們已經看到的行業變化。

I guess, lastly, finally, I look forward to seeing many of you at the Credit Suisse conference in a couple of weeks.

我想，最後，最後，我期待在幾週後的瑞士信貸會議上見到你們中的許多人。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today.

我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。

A replay of the call will be available on our website by 5 p.m.

電話重播將於下午 5 點之前在我們的網站上提供。

Pacific Time today, and we'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

今天是太平洋時間，我們要感謝您對應用材料的持續關注。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for attending today's conference.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們參加今天的會議。

This concludes the program.

程序到此結束。

You may all disconnect.

你們都可以斷開連接。

Good day.

再會。