應用材料 (AMAT) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把會議交給公司副總裁邁克爾·沙利文先生。請繼續，先生。

Hello, everyone, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our Second Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Call, which is being recorded. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家好，下午好。感謝您參加我們2019財年第二季財報電話會議，本次會議正在錄音。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson，以及我們的財務長 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與這些聲明有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的資訊包含在 Applied 向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP財務指標。與 GAAP 指標的調節表可在今天的盈利新聞稿和我們的調節表幻燈片中找到，這些幻燈片可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的 IR 頁面上找到。

Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. On Tuesday, July 9, Applied will host a Technology Day for the financial analyst community and other industry participants. The events will take place in San Francisco beginning at 8:00 a.m. Pacific Time. Gary Dickerson will be joined by other CEOs and technology leaders from throughout the semiconductor, hardware, software and data center ecosystem. We hope you'll join us, and we'll be in touch with invitations and more details.

在正式開始之前，我有一個日程安排通知。7 月 9 日星期二，Applied 將為金融分析師群體和其他行業參與者舉辦技術日。活動將於上午 8:00 在舊金山舉行。太平洋時間。Gary Dickerson 將與來自半導體、硬體、軟體和資料中心生態系統的其他執行長和技術領導者一起出席。我們希望您能加入我們，我們將與您聯繫，提供邀請函和更多詳情。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike. In our second fiscal quarter, we delivered results toward the top end of our guidance range reflecting solid execution across the company and a challenging business environment. Overall, our outlook has not changed significantly since our February call. Investment by memory and display customers remains muted for the time being, and we continue to pay attention to the broader macroeconomic risks.

謝謝你，麥克。在第二財季，我們實現了接近預期範圍上限的業績，這反映了公司各部門的穩健執行以及充滿挑戰的商業環境。整體而言，自二月的電話會議以來，我們的展望並沒有發生重大變化。目前，記憶體和顯示器客戶的投資依然低迷，我們將繼續關注更廣泛的宏觀經濟風險。

Looking further ahead, we maintain our strong positive view of our markets as powerful new demand drivers take shape. We're excited about the opportunities these secular trends create for Applied, and while we're carefully managing discretionary spending consistent with current market conditions, fueling our long-term growth remains a top priority. We are focusing on driving R&D to accelerate customers' road maps, building new capabilities and positioning Applied to play a bigger and broader role in the AI big data era.

展望未來，隨著強勁的新需求驅動因素逐漸形成，我們對市場前景仍保持高度樂觀。我們對這些長期趨勢為應用材料公司帶來的機會感到興奮，雖然我們正在根據當前市場情況謹慎管理可自由支配的支出，但推動我們的長期成長仍然是我們的首要任務。我們專注於推動研發，以加速客戶的路線圖，建立新的能力，並將應用科技定位為在人工智慧大數據時代發揮更大更廣泛的作用。

In today's call, I'll begin with our latest perspective on near-term market dynamics. Then, I'll talk briefly about the future growth drivers that are reshaping the semiconductor and display industries as well as the implications for Applied, and I'll finish by describing our performance and strategic priorities.

在今天的電話會議中，我將首先談談我們對近期市場動態的最新看法。接下來，我將簡要談談正在重塑半導體和顯示器產業的未來成長驅動因素及其對應用半導體的影響，最後我將介紹我們的績效和策略重點。

Starting with the near-term environment, our view of 2019 is largely the same as it was at the start of the year and shaped by 2 key factors. First, the semiconductor industry is in a period of diversification. If you look back over the past 5 years or so, you will see that smartphones drove the majority of semiconductor capital investments. We believe that is changing.

從近期環境來看，我們對 2019 年的看法與年初基本相同，主要受兩個關鍵因素的影響。首先，半導體產業正處於多元化發展時期。回顧過去五年左右的時間，你會發現智慧型手機推動了半導體領域的大部分資本投資。我們認為這種情況正在改變。

As we transition to the AI/big data era, major new drivers are emerging that will fuel industry growth for years to come. Although we're only in the early stages of the build-out, we see the combination of cloud data centers, 5G infrastructure, IoT and automotive technologies underpinning a much more significant portion of wafer fab equipment spending in 2019.

隨著我們邁向人工智慧/大數據時代，許多新的驅動因素正在湧現，這些因素將在未來幾年推動行業成長。儘管我們仍處於建設的早期階段，但我們看到雲端資料中心、5G 基礎設施、物聯網和汽車技術的結合將在 2019 年支撐晶圓製造設備支出中佔據更大的比例。

The second major factor impacting this year ahead is the memory cycle that the industry has been navigating for the past several quarters. Recent data shows that NAND pricing is stabilizing and inventory levels are down from their peak, although they still remain above normal levels. DRAM is not as far along in the correction cycle with high inventory levels and prices still falling.

影響今年的第二個主要因素是過去幾季以來整個產業一直在應對的記憶體週期。最新數據顯示，NAND 快閃記憶體價格趨於穩定，庫存水準已從峰值回落，但仍高於正常水準。DRAM 的調整週期尚未結束，庫存水準很高，價格仍在下跌。

As I've said before, I believe this memory cycle is different from those of the past. The fundamental dynamics in the market are healthy with disciplined investments in capacity. This year, customers are focusing resources on advancing their technology road maps and overall memory spending will be down significantly from 2018. We expect inventory levels to normalize as the year progresses, creating a more favorable environment for capacity investments in 2020.

正如我之前所說，我認為這個記憶週期與以往的記憶週期不同。市場基本面健康，產能投資也維持穩健。今年，客戶將資源集中用於推進其技術路線圖，因此整體記憶體支出將比 2018 年大幅下降。我們預計庫存水準將隨著時間的推移而趨於正常，從而為 2020 年的產能投資創造更有利的環境。

In foundry logic, we have seen customers' plans firm up over the past few months and now expect spending to be up year-on-year. In aggregate, our view of overall wafer fab equipment spending in 2019 is unchanged. We still see spending down mid- to high teens on a percent basis versus last year.

從代工廠的角度來看，我們看到客戶的計畫在過去幾個月逐漸明朗，現在預計支出將比去年同期成長。整體而言，我們對 2019 年晶圓製造設備總支出的看法並沒有改變。與去年相比，我們仍然看到支出下降了15%到10%的百分比。

In display, the picture is also consistent with our outlook from last quarter. We are still anticipating that our 2019 display revenues will decline by about 1/3 from 2018's level as customers push out investments. Over the longer term, we maintain our view that display is an attractive market, which is becoming more technology-intensive and increasingly dependent on materials' innovation.

從顯示方面來看，情況也與我們上季的預測一致。我們仍然預計，由於客戶推遲投資，我們 2019 年的顯示器收入將比 2018 年的水準下降約 1/3。從長遠來看，我們仍然認為顯示器是一個有吸引力的市場，它正變得越來越技術密集，並且越來越依賴材料的創新。

The introduction of larger substrates in TV manufacturing as well as rigid and flexible OLED technologies for mobile applications creates important growth opportunities for Applied over the next several years. Even as we work through this period of softer demand, I believe it's critically important we do not lose sight of the bigger picture. Major new industry growth drivers are emerging in the form of IoT, next-generation communications, big data and artificial intelligence. These technologies are disruptive and transformative and will touch almost every area of the economy and our lives.

電視製造中更大基板的引入，以及用於行動應用的剛性和柔性 OLED 技術，將在未來幾年為應用材料創造重要的成長機會。即使我們正在經歷需求疲軟的這段時期，我認為至關重要的是，我們不能忽視大局。物聯網、下一代通訊、大數據和人工智慧正成為推動產業快速成長的主要新興動力。這些技術具有顛覆性和變革性，將影響經濟和我們生活的幾乎所有領域。

From a semiconductor perspective, we believe the AI/big data era will be characterized by 2 major inflections. The first is the computing architecture inflection towards AI workloads as we move beyond general-purpose computing to specialized systems designed for new applications in the cloud and at the edge. The second is overcoming the deceleration of classic Moore's law scaling to deliver system-level improvements in power, performance and cost that will unlock the full potential of AI and big data.

從半導體產業的角度來看，我們認為人工智慧/大數據時代將有兩個主要轉折點。首先是運算架構向 AI 工作負載的轉變，我們從通用運算轉向為雲端和邊緣的新應用設計的專用系統。第二點是克服經典摩爾定律擴展速度的減緩，從而在功率、效能和成本方面實現系統級改進，釋放人工智慧和大數據的全部潛力。

We see a new industry playbook for semiconductor design and manufacturing emerging that includes 5 key components: new architectures; 3D structures and scaling techniques; novel materials; new ways to shrink feature sizes; and advanced packaging, including new ways to connect chips together. We see Applied's breadth and depth as a key strength as we collaborate broadly to address the technology challenges that will enable this new playbook. Our strategic priorities are to accelerate innovation for our customers while finding new ways to create sustainable value with our technology.

我們看到半導體設計和製造領域正在湧現出一套新的行業策略，其中包括 5 個關鍵組成部分：新的架構；3D 結構和縮放技術；新型材料；縮小特徵尺寸的新方法；以及先進的封裝技術，包括將晶片連接在一起的新方法。我們認為 Applied 的廣度和深度是一項關鍵優勢，因為我們將廣泛合作，以應對實現這項新策略所需的技術挑戰。我們的策略重點是加快為客戶創新，同時尋找利用我們的技術創造永續價值的新方法。

I'll highlight 4 important ways that we're doing this. First, we're building new capabilities. We're creating powerful R&D platforms like the META Center in New York and the advanced packaging lab in Singapore to complement our existing Maydan Technology Center in Silicon Valley. In parallel, we are leveraging state-of-the-art centers in metrology combined with data science, machine learning and simulation to reduce product development cycles and speed up transfer of new technologies from lab to fab.

我將重點介紹我們實現這一目標的 4 個重要方式。首先，我們正在建立新的能力。我們正在創建強大的研發平台，例如位於紐約的 META 中心和位於新加坡的先進封裝實驗室，以補充我們在矽谷現有的 Maydan 技術中心。同時，我們正在利用最先進的計量中心，結合資料科學、機器學習和模擬技術，來縮短產品開發週期，並加快新技術從實驗室到工廠的轉移。

Second, we're developing entirely new types of products to address the most complex challenges in a chip manufacturing process from the introduction of novel materials to key integration bottlenecks. Some of our key areas of focus include: critical deposition, implant and etch processes to scale current memory structures; the introduction of novel materials combined with sub angstom level control of those materials that are needed to enable new memories, including MRAM, ReRAM and PC RAM; new materials and interface engineering to enable significant improvements in power efficiency and performance at leading-edge foundry logic nodes; and next generation advanced packaging for heterogeneous integration. Our product pipeline spans from new unit process tools all the way to Integrated Materials Solutions, or IMS, where we can combine multiple processes together with customized metrology within a single system.

其次，我們正在開發全新的產品類型，以應對晶片製造過程中最複雜的挑戰，從引入新型材料到關鍵整合瓶頸。我們的一些重點領域包括：關鍵的沉積、注入和蝕刻工藝，以擴展當前的存儲結構；引入新型材料，並對這些材料進行亞埃級控制，以實現新型存儲器，包括 MRAM、ReRAM 和 PC RAM；新材料和界面工程，以在領先的代工廠邏輯節點上顯著提高功率效率和性能；以及用於裝配集成集成的下一代先進的下一代。我們的產品線涵蓋了從新型單元製程工具到整合材料解決方案（IMS）的各個方面，在IMS中，我們可以將多個製程與客製化計量技術結合在一個系統中。

Third, we are expanding our engagements across the AI ecosystem to accelerate innovation from materials to systems. In July, we will be hosting another AI Design Forum, bringing together leading companies in the field to support deeper collaboration between system architects, chip designers and the manufacturing community. I hope that many of you will be able to join us for this event.

第三，我們正在擴大與人工智慧生態系統的合作，以加速從材料到系統的創新。7 月，我們將舉辦另一場人工智慧設計論壇，匯集該領域的領先企業，以支援系統架構師、晶片設計師和製造業之間更深入的合作。我希望你們中的許多人都能參加這次活動。

And fourth, we're building a more resilient company that performs well and can continue to fuel innovation in a variety of market conditions. For example, increasing our focus on our service business has been a great way to deliver additional value to customers while providing a revenue stream that is relatively decoupled from industry cycles. We expect Applied Global Services to deliver high single-digit growth this year even in an environment where semiconductor and display customers are trimming their capital spending.

第四，我們正在打造一家更具韌性的公司，使其業績良好，並且能夠在各種市場條件下持續推動創新。例如，增加對服務業務的投入，是為客戶提供更多價值，同時提供與產業週期相對脫鉤的收入來源的絕佳途徑。我們預計，即使在半導體和顯示器客戶削減資本支出的環境下，Applied Global Services 今年仍將實現高個位數成長。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'll quickly summarize. Despite soft, near-term demand, the company is delivering solid performance. We are prudently managing discretionary spending and relentlessly focusing on our R&D pipeline. We expect 2020 to be a more positive setup, both in terms of industry spending and how much of that spending Applied can address. And we remain highly optimistic about the longer term. As powerful new drivers for semiconductors and displays emerge, we see tremendous opportunities for Applied Materials.

在把電話轉給丹之前，我先快速總結一下。儘管短期需求疲軟，但該公司業績表現穩健。我們正在謹慎管理可自由支配的支出，並堅持不懈地專注於我們的研發項目。我們預計 2020 年的情況將更加樂觀，無論是在行業支出方面，還是在 Applied 能夠滿足的支出方面。我們對長期前景依然非常​​樂觀。隨著半導體和顯示器領域強大的新型驅動技術的出現，我們看到了應用材料公司的巨大機會。

Now Dan will provide his perspective on our performance and outlook.

現在丹將對我們的表現和前景發表他的看法。

Thanks, Gary. In Q2, Applied delivered solid financial results in a challenging environment. While we're still not ready to call the bottom of the semi equipment cycle, I believe our industry thesis is very much intact. New demand drivers are taking shape. And even in this memory correction year, wafer fab equipment spending could be $10 billion higher than the peaks of all the prior cycles.

謝謝你，加里。第二季度，Applied在充滿挑戰的環境下取得了穩健的財務表現。雖然我們仍不能斷言半導體設備週期已經觸底，但我相信我們對產業的分析仍然非常正確。新的需求驅動因素正在形成。即使在今年這個記憶修正年，晶圓製造設備的支出可能比之前所有周期的峰值高出 100 億美元。

In this environment, I'm focused on 4 financial priorities: carefully managing our overall expenses; fully funding our new product pipeline; maximizing our recurring revenue; and delivering attractive cash returns to our shareholders. I'll share my thoughts on each one.

在這種環境下，我專注於 4 個財務重點：謹慎管理我們的整體支出；為我們的新產品研發提供充足的資金；最大限度地提高我們的經常性收入；以及為我們的股東帶來可觀的現金回報。我會分享我對每一項的看法。

First, in Q2, we reported OpEx of $745 million, which was below the midpoint of our guidance, it was also below our spending in Q1, which included a holiday shutdown and only 1 month of this year's merit increase. We'll continue to keep a tight rein on discretionary spending.

首先，第二季度我們的營運支出為 7.45 億美元，低於我們預期的中位數，也低於第一季的支出，第一季包括假期停工和今年僅一個月的績效工資成長。我們將繼續嚴格控制非必要支出。

Second. At the same time, we are fully funding R&D. As Gary described, our customers need more innovation than ever to improve chip performance, power and cost. We're investing in unique systems that enable new architectures, materials, 3D design techniques and packaging in addition to 2D scaling.

第二。同時，我們正全力投入研發。正如 Gary 所描述的那樣，我們的客戶比以往任何時候都更需要創新來提高晶片的性能、功耗和降低成本。我們正在投資獨特的系統，除了實現 2D 縮放之外，還能實現新的架構、材料、3D 設計技術和包裝。

Third, in addition to strengthening our competitiveness in the near term, these investments will increase our installed base and give us more opportunities to earn recurring revenue well into the future. I'll give you some metrics to think about. You may know that Applied has the largest installed base in the industry of more than 40,000 systems. Many of our systems have multiple chambers, and we actually have over 140,000 chambers in the field. Helping customers maximize the installed base is a key opportunity for Applied, especially in a year like 2019.

第三，除了增強我們近期的競爭力外，這些投資還將增加我們的裝機量，並為我們帶來更多在未來獲得持續收入的機會。我提供一些指標給你參考。您可能知道，Applied 公司擁有業界最大的裝機量，超過 40,000 套系統。我們的許多系統都有多個腔室，實際上我們在現場有超過 140,000 個腔室。幫助客戶最大限度地利用已安裝的基礎是 Applied 的一個重要機遇，尤其是在像 2019 年這樣的年份。

This year, we expect to generate about 40% of our semi-related revenue from the installed base, which includes 200- and 300-millimeter upgrades, refurbs, parts and services. The most strategic pillar of the AGS growth strategy is long-term service agreements, which allow us to deliver the most value to our customers and generate subscription-like revenue for Applied. Today, more than 20% of our semi-installed base is covered by long-term agreements. This business needs to be earned, and we do it by generating recurring value to our customers in the form of faster ramps, higher yields, greater throughput and lower costs.

今年，我們預計約 40% 的半相關收入將來自已安裝的基礎，其中包括 200 毫米和 300 毫米的升級、翻新、零件和服務。AGS 成長策略中最具戰略意義的支柱是長期服務協議，這使我們能夠為客戶提供最大的價值，並為 Applied 創造類似訂閱的收入。目前，我們超過 20% 的半成品設備都簽訂了長期協議。這項業務需要靠實力贏得，而我們贏得這項業務的方式是透過為客戶創造持續價值，例如更快的產能提升、更高的產量、更大的吞吐量和更低的成本。

Our strongest growth comes from advanced services, where we use data science to help our customers achieve maximum performance and continuous improvement. Our renewal rates are world-class. 2018 was the first year when AGS generated over 50% of services and spares revenue from subscription-like agreements. In 2019, we expect to grow the subscription part of the business at about twice the rate of the segment as a whole.

我們最強勁的成長來自高級服務，我們利用數據科學幫助客戶實現最佳效能和持續改進。我們的續約率是世界一流的。2018 年是 AGS 首次透過類似訂閱的協議獲得超過 50% 的服務和備件收入的一年。2019 年，我們預計訂閱業務的成長速度將約為整個業務板塊成長速度的兩倍。

Finally, cash returns. As Gary said, the memory correction we're seeing today is different from those of the past. For our part, we are still generating solid profitability and more cash flow than we need to support the business. In Q2, we generated operating cash flow of $800 million, and we returned $814 million to shareholders. We paid $189 million in dividends, and we announced a 5% dividend increase.

最後，還有現金回報。正如加里所說，我們今天看到的記憶糾正與過去的記憶糾正有所不同。就我們而言，我們仍然能夠創造穩健的盈利能力，並且現金流足以支持業務運營。第二季度，我們產生了 8 億美元的經營現金流，並向股東返還了 8.14 億美元。我們支付了 1.89 億美元的股息，並宣布股息增加 5%。

We were opportunistic with the buyback program, using $625 million to repurchase approximately 16 million shares. In fact, over the past 4 quarters, we've repurchased 8% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of that period. Over a 5-year basis, we bought back approximately 28% of the shares.

我們在股票回購計畫中抓住了機會，動用了 6.25 億美元回購了約 1,600 萬股股票。事實上，在過去的四個季度中，我們回購了該季度初流通股的 8%。在五年內，我們回購了約 28% 的股份。

Looking ahead, we're excited about the industry and confident that the actions we're taking today will generate substantial shareholder value in the years ahead.

展望未來，我們對這個行業充滿信心，並相信我們今天採取的行動將在未來幾年為股東創造巨大的價值。

Now I'll summarize our Q2 results. We delivered company revenue of $3.54 billion, which was slightly above the midpoint of guidance. Non-GAAP gross margin was 43.5% and in line with our outlook as the revenue upside was relatively balanced across the segments. We held non-GAAP OpEx at $745 million, and we generated non-GAAP earnings of $0.70, which was the top of our guidance range.

現在我來總結一下我們第二季的業績。公司營收達 35.4 億美元，略高於預期中位數。非GAAP毛利率為43.5%，與我們的預期一致，因為各業務部門的營收成長空間相對均衡。我們將非GAAP營運支出控制在7.45億美元，並實現了0.70美元的非GAAP收益，這達到了我們預期範圍的上限。

Turning to the segments. Semiconductor Systems revenue was $2.18 billion and slightly above the midpoint of our outlook, and non-GAAP operating margin was 27%. Global services revenue was $984 million, which is a new record and demonstrates how well we're growing the business even in a correction year for the industry.

接下來進入分段部分。半導體系統收入為 21.8 億美元，略高於我們預期的中位數，非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 27%。全球服務收入為 9.84 億美元，創歷史新高，這表明即使在行業處於調整期的一年裡，我們的業務成長依然十分強勁。

AGS non-GAAP operating margin was 28.8%. Display revenue was $348 million, which was above the midpoint of our outlook as some of the systems scheduled for Q3 actually shipped before the end of Q2. Display non-GAAP operating margin declined 10.1 points sequentially, and we expect the margin to recover along with revenue in the upcoming quarters.

AGS 非 GAAP 營業利益率為 28.8%。顯示器收入為 3.48 億美元，高於我們預期的中位數，因為一些原定於第三季出貨的系統實際上在第二季結束前就已出貨。數據顯示，非GAAP營業利潤率季減10.1個百分點，我們預期利潤率將在接下來的幾季隨著營收的成長而回升。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $5.2 billion in cash and investments and nearly $3 billion remaining in our buyback authorization.

接下來看一下資產負債表。本季末，我們擁有 52 億美元的現金和投資，回購授權中還剩餘近 30 億美元。

Next, I'll provide our Q3 guidance. We expect the company revenue to be approximately $3.525 billion, plus or minus $150 million, and we expect non-GAAP earnings to be in the range of $0.67 to $0.75 per share. Within this outlook, we expect semiconductor systems revenue to be approximately $2.175 billion. Services revenue should be about $990 million. Display revenue should be around $335 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to increase by about 30 basis points sequentially and non-GAAP OpEx should be approximately flat sequentially.

接下來，我將提供我們第三季的業績指引。我們預計公司收入約為 35.25 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元；我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益在 0.67 美元至 0.75 美元之間。在此展望下，我們預期半導體系統營收約為 21.75 億美元。服務收入預計約9.9億美元。展示廣告收入應該在3.35億美元左右。我們預期非GAAP毛利率將較上季成長約30個基點，非GAAP營運支出將較上季基本持平。

Now, Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

麥克，現在開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝你，丹。（操作員指示）操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 和 Evercore 的生產線。

I guess, to follow up on your commentary regarding 2020 and more favorable capacity spending environment, can you walk through how you're expecting the mix there? What the implications would look like to your market share? And how we should think about silicon operating margins bouncing off the current lows of the 27%? And whether we should be thinking at least over time, we can get back into the mid-30s? So I know a lot there, but I'd love to hear your thoughts.

我想，為了跟進您關於 2020 年以及更有利的產能支出環境的評論，您能否詳細說明一下您預計屆時的組合情況？這將對你的市佔率產生什麼影響？那麼，我們該如何看待矽晶片營運利潤率從目前 27% 的低點反彈呢？我們是否應該考慮，至少從長遠來看，我們能否重回30多歲的水平？我了解很多這方面的情況，但我很想聽聽你的想法。

Thanks, C.J. Let me start with the overall market profile and then what we expect from a margin standpoint as we roll forward into 2020. So as we take a look at where we sit in 2019, we talked about the overall WFE being down mid- to high teens. Our view on that hasn't changed. That puts us in about a mid-$40 billion range for WFE this year. As we look at the profile across device types and you look at foundry logic and you look at memory, we think foundry logic is going to be up a little bit this year. We think memory is going to be down a good amount this year. That gives you a bit of a setup on how we're profiling in 2019.

謝謝，C.J.。讓我先談談整體市場概況，然後再談談我們對2020年利潤率的預期。因此，當我們回顧 2019 年的情況時，我們談到了整體 WFE 下降了 15% 到 10% 左右。我們對此的看法並沒有改變。這意味著今年WFE的收入約為400億美元左右。當我們觀察不同設備類型的概況，以及代工邏輯和記憶體的情況時，我們認為今年代工邏輯的需求會略有成長。我們認為今年記憶體使用量會大幅下降。這使大家對我們 2019 年的概況有了大致的了解。

As we roll the clock forward, and we look at how WFE is likely to unfold in 2020, we view this as a growth year in WFE. As we look in the foundry logic space, and we have advanced purchases of things like EUV and metrology systems around advanced nodes, we see the capacity adds building out those nodes going in, in 2020 beyond, and we think that's a favorable setup for our overall markets.

展望 2020 年 WFE 的發展前景，我們認為這將是 WFE 的成長之年。當我們審視晶圓代工邏輯領域時，我們已經提前採購了 EUV 和計量系統等先進節點設備，我們看到產能的增加將用於建立這些節點，從 2020 年到現在，我們認為這對我們的整體市場來說是一個有利的局面。

On the memory side, we don't see a memory correction this year, and we do see the memory correction profiling into 2020. That is our current expectation. If it happens faster than that, then we'll benefit in a material way. The combination of the setup around foundry logic and memory going into 2020 is a favorable setup for Applied, and we feel really good about the position that we're in.

在記憶體方面，我們今年沒有看到記憶體修正，但我們確實看到了記憶體修正的趨勢延續到 2020 年。這是我們目前的預期。如果進展速度更快，我們將獲得實質的好處。2020 年代工邏輯和記憶體領域的佈局組合對 Applied 來說是一個有利的局面，我們對我們所處的地位感到非常滿意。

As we take a look at operating margins, operating margins are going to be a function of 2 things: how we profile from a gross margin standpoint and how we invest to fund future growth and deliver key enabling technologies to make our customers successful. Gross margin in any given quarter, not surprisingly, will vary depending on product mix and customer mix and factory activity levels as well as aggregate revenue levels, and it's going to vary from quarter-to-quarter.

當我們審視營業利潤率時，營業利潤率將取決於兩件事：從毛利率的角度來看，我們的表現如何；以及我們如何投資以資助未來的成長，並提供關鍵的賦能技術，從而幫助我們的客戶取得成功。不出所料，任何一個季度的毛利率都會因產品組合、客戶組合、工廠活動水平以及總收入水平而有所不同，而且每個季度的毛利率也會有所不同。

As we look at the investments we are making today, we see 2D scaling and Moore's law increasingly having challenges, we see the road map, and Gary has talked about this in the past, there's a new playbook that our industry is going to create to drive power and performance for our customers. Applied has a key role to play in each of those elements of the new playbook, whether it's materials or architectures or 3D structures or packaging, and we're going to position our business and invest in our business to lead going forward.

當我們審視當今的投資時，我們發現二維擴展和摩爾定律正面臨越來越大的挑戰。我們看到了發展路線圖，Gary 過去也談到這一點，我們的產業將制定一套新的策略，以提升客戶的功率和效能。Applied 在新策略的各個方面都扮演著關鍵角色，無論是材料、建築、3D 結構還是包裝，我們將調整業務定位並加大投資，以引領未來發展。

Now that said, in an environment where you see recovery in our end markets and our ability to grow into those end markets, we fully expect to see leverage on both the gross margin and the operating margin line. Premature at this point, I think, to give a point estimate on 2020, but we like the setup around 2020, and we do think we will see leverage in our margin structure as the business returns to growth.

也就是說，在終端市場復甦且我們有能力拓展這些終端市場的環境下，我們完全預期毛利率和營業利益率都會提升。我認為現在對 2020 年做出預測還為時過早，但我們對 2020 年的情況感到滿意，而且我們認為隨著業務恢復增長，我們的利潤率結構將會得到提升。

Yes. C.J., thanks for your question. Let me start with 2019, and then I'll go to 2020 and beyond and build on some of what Dan talked about.

是的。C.J.，謝謝你的提問。讓我先從 2019 年說起，然後再展望 2020 年及以後，並在此基礎上補充丹所談到的一些內容。

While we're not going to forecast 2019 share on the call, we do think '19 is a more favorable setup for Applied. While we still see additional EUV adoption in 2019, the non-EUV spending mix is more favorable for Applied than it was in 2018. And going forward, I believe that we are very well positioned to drive share gains. Customers are struggling to deliver improvements in power, performance and cost. And as Dan said and as I've talked about many times, it's very clear a new playbook is needed based on new 3D structures, new materials, new ways to drive costs and new ways to connect chips together.

雖然我們不會在電話會議上預測 2019 年的市場份額，但我們認為 2019 年對 Applied 來說是一個更有利的局面。雖然我們仍然看到 2019 年 EUV 技術的進一步應用，但非 EUV 支出組合對應用材料公司來說比 2018 年更有利。展望未來，我相信我們已做好充分準備，推動市場佔有率的成長。客戶在提高功率、性能和降低成本方面面臨諸多挑戰。正如丹所說，也正如我多次談到的那樣，很明顯，我們需要基於新的 3D 結構、新材料、降低成本的新方法以及將晶片連接在一起的新方法制定新的策略。

A great example of our new playbook is our potential to enable a 1,000x improvement in leakage current. And there are other enabling capabilities that we have that address power, performance and costs that we're not going to discuss in public. We're engaged with the majority of our leading customers with Integrated Material Solutions, and we're even more confident that in both future and trailing nodes, we can help our customers integrate new technologies in their chips and drive incremental growth for Applied.

我們新方案的一個很好的例子是，我們有可能將漏電流降低 1000 倍。我們還有其他一些能夠解決功率、性能和成本問題的能力，但我們不會公開討論這些能力。我們正在與大多數主要客戶進行整合材料解決方案合作，並且我們更有信心，在未來的節點和後續節點中，我們可以幫助客戶將新技術整合到他們的晶片中，並推動應用材料公司實現增量成長。

We also have a very strong pipeline of new products, including products that expand our positions into markets that we don't currently serve. Some of those new products are already gaining traction with major customers. So overall, I believe that the setup for Applied is better in '19, and certainly in 2020 and beyond.

我們還擁有非常強大的新產品儲備，包括能夠將我們的地位擴展到我們目前尚未涉足的市場的產品。其中一些新產品已經開始受到主要客戶的青睞。所以總的來說，我認為 Applied 的配置在 2019 年更好，而且在 2020 年及以後肯定會更好。

Our next question will come from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Similar to C.J.'s question on the semiconductor market, I have a question on the display side. At recent San Jose, a display conference, there was a fair bit of optimism on display market rebounding next year with third parties talking about 10% to 30% year-over-year growth. At one point, you guys were talking about tripling your footprint in the display market. Can you just talk about how you're looking at 2020 from a display perspective given longer lead times for equipment?

與 C.J. 關於半導體市場的問題類似，我也有一個關於顯示器方面的問題。在最近於聖荷西舉行的顯示器會議上，人們對顯示器市場明年的復甦抱持相當樂觀的態度，第三方機構表示，年成長率將達到 10% 至 30%。你們曾經討論過要將你們在顯示器市場的份額擴大三倍。鑑於設備交付週期延長，您能否從展示角度談談您對 2020 年的看法？

Yes. Let me start -- and thanks for the question. Let me give you some color on the display business, I'll start with '19 and then I'll go into 2020. So for 2019, we still expect display revenue to be down about 1/3 from 2018's record levels, with TV now being about 3/4 of the business this year as customers move to Gen 10.5.

是的。讓我先來—謝謝你的提問。讓我來跟你們介紹一下顯示器產業的狀況，我先從 2019 年說起，然後再談到 2020 年。因此，我們仍預期 2019 年的顯示器收入將比 2018 年的創紀錄水準下降約 1/3，而隨著消費者轉向第 10.5 代電視，電視業務今年將佔到總業務的約 3/4。

Going forward, we see demand becoming more balanced between TV and mobile OLED. And as we look into 2020, based on everything we see today, TV demand looks stable and we expect mobile to grow year-over-year with a broader mobile OLED customer base. And longer term, we see great opportunities that drive growth in the display business. Some of the new technologies are more capital-intensive. There are some great inflections where we can create value for customers. So overall, again, we see 2020 certainly being better and our position also being stronger as we go forward.

展望未來，我們預計電視和行動 OLED 之間的需求將更加平衡。展望 2020 年，根據我們目前所看到的一切，電視需求看起來穩定，我們預計行動電視需求將逐年成長，行動 OLED 用戶群也將擴大。從長遠來看，我們看到了推動顯示器業務成長的巨大機會。有些新技術需要更多資金投入。有一些重要的轉折點，我們可以為客戶創造價值。所以總的來說，我們認為 2020 年肯定會更好，而且隨著時間的推移，我們的地位也會更加穩固。

Yes. And Atif, I think you're also kind of alluding to the new products. I think the next event we do, we're really going to be focusing on semi at SEMICON West, our semi new products, so I think we'll do that. So please just stay tuned on the newer display products, and thank you.

是的。阿提夫，我覺得你也是在暗示新產品。我認為我們接下來的活動，也就是在 SEMICON West 展會上，我們將重點放在半導體領域，展示我們的半導體新產品，所以我們會這樣做。所以請繼續關注我們最新的顯示產品，謝謝。

Our next question will come from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, I was hoping you could provide an update on what you're seeing in China, not so much from the multinationals but more so the local manufacturers both on the foundry side as well as the memory side? Progress in terms of technology, any change in sort of buying patterns given kind of the political backdrop? Any update you can provide there would be helpful.

Gary，我希望你能提供一些關於你在中國看到的最新情況，不僅僅是跨國公司的情況，而是本地製造商的情況，包括晶圓代工和記憶體製造方面的情況？鑑於當前的政治背景，科技進步是否為購買模式帶來了任何變化？如果您能提供任何最新信息，將不勝感激。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Toshiya. So let me give you a color on China. China wafer fab equipment will be down year-over-year in '19 versus '18, a small amount. We still see domestic flattish and multinational down in China. In domestic China, we see slightly higher spending on foundry logic versus memory with foundry logic focused on trailing nodes for sensor, IoT, those kinds of devices.

是的。謝謝你的提問，Toshiya。讓我來為你描繪一下中國。2019年中國晶圓製造設備產量將比2018年略有下降。中國國內市場仍呈現平穩態勢，而跨國公司市場則持續下滑。在中國國內，我們看到代工邏輯的支出略高於記憶體，代工邏輯主要集中在感測器、物聯網等設備的後端節點。

Within China domestic spending, we're in a great position. We expect we're going to maintain a very strong share position in China. In our display business, China is going to be down in line with the overall global display forecast. And I would say relative to customer progress, certainly in the domestic foundry logic business, we see a lot of growth in IoT, communications, automotive, power, sensor types of devices, and those are on more trailing nodes. Certainly, China has the ability to build those kinds of devices, and again, that's where we see more spending in 2019. And we see pretty strong growth there going forward.

在中國國內消費領域，我們處於非常有利的地位。我們預計我們將在中國保持非常強大的市場份額。就我們的顯示器業務而言，中國市場將與全球顯示器市場的整體預測保持一致。就客戶進度而言，尤其是在國內代工邏輯業務方面，我們看到物聯網、通訊、汽車、電源、感測器等類型的設備都取得了很大的成長，而這些設備大多採用的是後續節點。當然，中國有能力製造這類設備，而且，我們看到2019年這方面的支出也會增加。我們預計未來這一領域將保持強勁成長動能。

In memory, I don't want to comment on any specific customers in terms of progress, but what I would say is that memory is a very difficult market. If you look at DRAM, customers are adding letters to their nodes because scaling is becoming more capital-intensive and more difficult. And certainly, also in 3D NAND, scaling is difficult, and you can see customer presentations where capital intensity is going up as they try to scale those devices.

就記憶體而言，我不想評論任何特定客戶的進展情況，但我想說的是，記憶體是一個非常艱難的市場。如果你觀察 DRAM，你會發現客戶正在為他們的節點添加字母，因為擴展變得越來越需要資金投入，也越來越困難。當然，3D NAND 也存在同樣的問題，擴展性不足，從客戶的演示中可以看出，隨著他們嘗試擴展這些設備，資本密集度也在不斷提高。

So I think that being in the leading-edge memory is very, very, very difficult and will take many, many years.

所以我認為，要成為記憶體領域的佼佼者是非常非常非常困難的，需要很多很多年的時間。

And our next question will come from the line of John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

接下來，我們將向瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策提出一個問題。

So just going back to your reluctance to call the bottom, Dan, I kind of appreciate the conservatism given the macro uncertainty. But with sort of NAND and DRAM revenue down greater than 50% peak to current, the industry is going to have to invest in 96 layers sometime this year. To hit your full year guide on display, [you have talked] a pretty big ramp in the fiscal fourth quarter for that business. And services is still kind of structural growth. I'm kind of just curious, what's the reticence in not calling the bottom? Is it something you're seeing in your bottom book forecast? Or is it more about kind of just the macro uncertainty overhang out there?

所以，丹，回到你不願意預測底部這一點，考慮到宏觀經濟的不確定性，我挺欣賞你的保守態度。但由於 NAND 和 DRAM 的收入較高峰下降了 50% 以上，業界今年某個時候將不得不投資 96 層技術。為了實現全年業績目標，[您曾表示]該業務在第四財季需要大幅成長。服務業仍然是一種結構性成長。我只是有點好奇，為什麼大家遲遲不肯說出底部呢？你在預測收盤價時是否也看到了這種情況？或者說，這與目前宏觀經濟情勢的不確定性有關？

Thanks, John. I think there's a couple of things at play, at least how I process it. So let me share with you a little bit of my thinking, and hopefully, that will give you a bit of color on how we're viewing the world right now.

謝謝你，約翰。我認為其中有幾個因素在起作用，至少我是這麼理解的。那麼，讓我跟你們分享我的想法，希望這能讓你們對我們目前看待世界的方式有所了解。

I think our reluctance to call the bottom is a semiconductor comment, it's not an overall company comment. And what I mean by that, if we take a look at our semi business, there's no change to our outlook this year in terms of -- no material change in terms of the WFE, the overall market, down mid- to high teens, mid-$40 billion WFE ZIP Code.

我認為我們不願意斷言市場觸底反彈是針對半導體產業的，而不是針對整個公司的。我的意思是，如果我們看一下我們的半導體業務，今年我們的前景沒有任何變化——就WFE（晶圓廠設備）和整體市場而言，沒有實質性的變化，下降15%到10%左右，WFE郵政編碼約為400億美元。

I gave you the profile on how foundry logic and memory will profile into this year. And if we go back a quarter on our earnings call, we provide a guidance around our semi systems business to be at a run rate of $2.15 billion and flat for the year. Very little has changed in our view on that business. We did a little better than that in Q2. We guided a little better than that in Q3, but what we're talking about is really a 1% move, and I think we've got to stay focused on the right run rate to think about the business is about $2.15 billion. And against that flat profile in semi, we see an OpEx level that underpins that, that's roughly flat with where we were in 2018.

我已經向你介紹了今年晶圓代工邏輯和記憶體的發展趨勢。如果我們回顧上個季度的財報電話會議，我們預計半導體系統業務的年化收入將達到 21.5 億美元，全年保持穩定。我們對這家企業的看法幾乎沒有改變。第二季我們做得比這略好。我們在第三季給出的預期比這略好一些，但我們現在討論的實際上是 1% 的波動，我認為我們必須專注於正確的運行速度，才能考慮到公司約 21.5 億美元的規模。鑑於半導體產業的平穩發展態勢，我們看到支撐這一態勢的營運支出水準與 2018 年的水準大致持平。

If I transition to the services business, we do see a step-up into the back of the year. We do have confidence in our high single-digit growth projection for the business. And I think it's important to note that Q4 is typically a seasonally good quarter for us, so we feel good about how that business profiles.

如果我轉型進入服務業，我們預計到年底業績會有所提升。我們對公司業務實現高個位數成長的預測充滿信心。我認為值得注意的是，第四季度通常是我們公司業績較好的季度，所以我們對這部分業務的狀況感到樂觀。

In display for the full year, no change in our outlook. We said Q2, Q3 would profile very similarly. We see that playing out. We do see growth into the back part of the year. So when you bring it altogether as an overall company for Applied, while we do see flatness from a semi standpoint from this point forward, we do see growth from a services perspective, we see growth off these levels from a display perspective and the overall company will grow from this point in 2019.

全年來看，我們的展望沒有改變。我們曾說過第二季和第三季的情況會非常相似。我們看到這種情況正在發生。我們確實看到下半年出現了成長。因此，從整體來看，Applied 公司雖然從半導體角度來看成長趨於平緩，但從服務角度來看成長明顯，從顯示器角度來看也有所成長，公司整體將在 2019 年實現成長。

And when we take a look at that mix towards the latter part of the year, we all know that our semi business has the highest gross margin, followed by display, followed by service. So with flat semi, growing service, growing display, that creates a natural gross margin headwind for us. We think we can execute well into that environment, and we're going to look to hold the gross margins flat into Q4, off of the levels we produce in Q3. So we've got confidence that we can execute well into that environment. Now we don't want to guide more than 1 quarter out, and so a quarter from now on our earnings call, we'll let you know what we see in Q4. But we hope to execute well against that natural margin headwind and keep our margins where they're at in Q3.

當我們回顧下半年的業務組合時，我們都知道，我們的半導體業務毛利率最高，其次是展示業務，再次是服務業務。因此，隨著半成品價格的下降、服務業的成長、展示業的成長，這自然會對我們的毛利率造成不利影響。我們認為我們能夠在這種環境下很好地執行策略，我們將力爭在第四季度保持毛利率與第三季度持平。因此我們有信心能夠在這種環境下出色地完成任務。現在我們不想給出超過一個季度的業績指引，所以一個季度後的財報電話會議上，我們會告訴大家我們對第四季的預期。但我們希望能夠克服這種自然的利潤率逆風，並在第三季度保持目前的利潤率水準。

Our next question will come from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的哈蘭·蘇爾。

Just on foundry and logic, up 25% sequentially, up 30% year-over-year. I know you now anticipate this segment to be up versus your prior view of sort of flattish. What's driving the better outlook? Is it better trajectory on 7-nanometer foundry or 10-nanometer logic or maybe even a lagging edge IoT? And are you guys starting to see any 5-nanometer foundry, 7-nanometer logic because we know that the design activity has already started to pick up here?

僅晶圓製造和邏輯電路業務，季增 25%，年增 30%。我知道你現在預期這一部分會比你之前預期的比較平穩的局面有所上升。是什麼因素促成了這種好轉的前景？在 7 奈米晶圓代工、10 奈米邏輯工藝，甚至是落後於時代的物聯網技術上，哪種發展軌跡更好？你們那邊有沒有開始看到 5 奈米晶圓代工廠和 7 奈米邏輯晶片的身影？因為我們知道這邊的設計活動已經開始增加。

Thanks, Harlan. As we look at what's driving it, we said incremental improvement in foundry logic versus where we were a quarter ago. It's offset by incremental weakness from a memory standpoint. No change to the overall WFE. As we double-click on foundry logic, I don't think there's any one element that we can point to. We do see a diversification and a broadening of spend across mature nodes and leading-edge nodes. We do see capacity adds beginning to take shape around 5-nanometers, more at 7-nanometers.

謝謝你，哈蘭。當我們分析其驅動因素時，我們發現，與一個季度前相比，晶圓代工邏輯方面有了漸進式的改進。從記憶體角度來看，這種優勢會被逐漸減弱的效能所抵消。整體工作效率沒有改變。當我們深入探討代工邏輯時，我認為我們無法指出任何一個具體的因素。我們確實看到，支出在成熟節點和前沿節點之間呈現出多元化和擴大化趨勢。我們看到產能成長開始在 5 奈米左右形成，在 7 奈米左右則更多。

Still too early to extrapolate a trend line from that, but we're encouraged by the strength and resilience of that end market and the environment we find ourselves in. But no one specific thing to point to.

現在就斷言趨勢線還為時過早，但我們對終端市場的實力和韌性以及我們所處的環境感到鼓舞。但找不到具體的原因。

Our next question will come from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

Gary, I wanted to follow up on the WFE share comment. By my math, you sort of peaked at close to 22% in 2016, it was pretty flat in 2017, and you lost about 200 basis points last year. In that same time, ASML gained about 400 basis points-worth of share, and it sounded in the prepared remarks like you're a little more optimistic about gaining WFE share next year, and I guess, that's in a year where it seems like the industry has to come up with at least a couple of billion dollars year-over-year for EUV.

Gary，我想就WFE股票的評論做個後續說明。據我計算，你們的收益率在 2016 年達到了接近 22% 的峰值，2017 年基本上持平，去年下降了約 200 個基點。同時，ASML 的市佔率成長了約 400 個基點。從你準備的演講稿來看，你對明年獲得 WFE 市佔率似乎更加樂觀。我想，這是因為今年整個產業似乎必須每年至少拿出幾十億美元用於 EUV 技術。

So I guess, I'm just trying to parse through. Are you more bullish because of maybe some risk to EUV? Or are you bullish about the wafer capacity addition that you see on the NAND side next year?

所以我想我只是在努力理解。你是否因為EUV技術存在一些風險而更加看好它？或者，您是否看好明年 NAND 晶圓產能的成長？

Yes. Thanks for the question. I just -- again, when we look at the setup for 2019, we believe that the mix is definitely more favorable for us. Certainly, you look at the foundry logic business, the growth in IoT communication, automotive, power sensors, those different markets, that's going to be a bigger percentage in terms of 2019. We think we're set up pretty well there.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我只是——再說一遍，當我們審視 2019 年的情況時，我們認為這種組合肯定對我們更有利。當然，看看代工邏輯業務、物聯網通訊、汽車、功率感測器等不同市場的成長，到 2019 年，這些市場所佔的比例將會更大。我們認為我們在那裡的安排相當不錯。

The initial buys for 5-nanometer also, we think that we're in a better position there. Again, if you look at the EUV adoption, certainly that's one way for our customers to drive their road maps. But we talked about 5 different ways, and EUV is one of those 5. And you see customers driving improvements in power and performance, and that's all about materials' innovation. So we have new steps that are being adopted, both in transistor and interconnect. That's going to be positive for us in terms of the leading-edge foundry and logic. And then in memory, we also are gaining positions there. And longer term, we see that, that's a really good growth opportunity for us.

對於 5 奈米技術的初期採購，我們認為我們處於更有利的地位。再說，如果你看看 EUV 的應用情況，這無疑是我們的客戶制定發展路線圖的一種方式。但我們討論了 5 種不同的方法，EUV 就是其中之一。你會看到客戶推動著功率和性能的提升，而這一切都與材料的創新有關。因此，我們在晶體管和互連領域都採用了新的技術。這對我們來說是件好事，因為我們擁有領先的晶圓代工和邏輯電路。在記憶體領域，我們也正在取得進展。從長遠來看，我們認為這對我們來說是一個非常好的成長機會。

If you go back over, let's say, a 5-year period of time, we were probably 14%, 15% of the memory spend, and now we're over 20% of the memory spend. And as customers are driving DRAM devices with new foundry-like processes in the periphery, that's great for us because that leverages our leading-edge products, the PVD implant, thermal, CMP. All of those areas, we have very strong positions. And we're gaining new positions also in memory.

如果回顧過去五年，我們當時的記憶體支出可能佔總支出的 14% 到 15%，而現在我們已經佔了總支出的 20% 以上。隨著客戶在外圍採用類似代工製程的新製程來製造 DRAM 裝置，這對我們來說是件好事，因為這可以充分利用我們的領先產品，即 PVD ​​注入、熱處理和 CMP。我們在所有這些領域都擁有非常強大的地位。我們在記憶體領域也獲得了新的地位。

So again, overall, we like the setup much better in 2020. And longer term, longer term, again, all of these road maps are becoming more difficult. Customers are adding all kinds of pluses to their technology nodes because, again, the scaling is getting much more difficult. And at the foundation of all that is materials' innovation, Integrated Material Solutions, where we have engagements with all the major customers. It takes some time to drive those architectures and structures and materials into new devices, but we have tremendous traction there. We're certainly more optimistic in '19, and definitely, there's a lot of great things that come together for us in 2020 and beyond that will be positive for Applied.

所以總的來說，我們更喜歡 2020 年的這種安排。從長遠來看，所有這些路線圖都變得越來越難以實現。客戶正在為其技術節點添加各種附加功能，因為擴展變得越來越困難。而這一切的基礎是材料創新，即整合材料解決方案，我們與所有主要客戶都有合作關係。將這些架構、結構和材料應用到新設備中需要一些時間，但我們在這方面取得了巨大的進展。我們對 2019 年肯定更加樂觀，而且可以肯定的是，2020 年及以後會有很多好事發生，這對 Applied 來說將是積極的。

And Tim, I want to just add one more thing. When Gary explained earlier, he said there were 2 reasons why the share dropped year-over-year. He said one was EUV, and that was coming in while our customers were in reuse mode. He said one other thing, he said there are other markets that we don't participate in that were very strong in 2018, specifically dielectric edge, and then a host of batch processes. So we do expect that EUV will continue to be good in '19, but we don't see as much of those other areas that we nominally compete in but in reality do not. As a reminder, we're in conductor etch, not dielectric, right? We're in single wafer processes, not batch processes. So it's that part of that 2-part equation that explains what you're describing.

提姆，我還要補充一點。Gary 先前解釋說，股價年減有兩個原因。他說其中一種是 EUV，而當時我們的客戶正處於重複使用模式。他還說了另一件事，他說還有一些我們沒有參與的市場，這些市場在 2018 年表現非常強勁，特別是介電邊緣，以及一系列批量工藝。因此，我們預計 EUV 在 2019 年仍將保持良好勢頭，但我們並不認為我們在名義上參與競爭但實際上並不參與的其他領域會有太大的發展。再次提醒一下，我們現在是在進行導體蝕刻，而不是介電蝕刻，對吧？我們採用的是單晶圓工藝，而不是批量製程。所以，正是這個兩部分方程式中的那一部分解釋了你所描述的現象。

Our next question will come from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

Gary, you mentioned TV flattish and mobile growing next year on the display side. That sounds kind of like a mid-single-digit growth opportunity. I just wanted to make sure that's the right way to think about it from a '20 perspective. And longer term, do you think your display business kind of grows more in line with the adoption of OLED? And what is the right way to conceptually think about growth in display?

Gary，你提到電視螢幕面積明年將趨於平坦，而行動顯示器市場將會成長。聽起來像是中等個位數的成長機會。我只是想確認一下，從2020年的角度來看，這種思考方式是否正確。從長遠來看，您認為您的顯示器業務是否會隨著OLED的普及而更加同步成長？那麼，從概念上講，思考展示業成長的正確方法是什麼？

Well, I would say for next year, we certainly believe that the market is going to be stronger than it is this year. We're not giving any estimates in terms of the magnitude of the growth into next year. But longer term, we see this as a great opportunity. Before this year, for several years in a row, we were growing at 25% compound annual growth rate.

嗯，我認為明年市場肯定會比今年更強勁。我們不會對明年的成長幅度做出任何預測。但從長遠來看，我們認為這是一個絕佳的機會。在今年之前，我們連續幾年保持 25% 的複合年增長率。

The -- just like in semi, those display technologies are very difficult. If you look at mobile OLED, I mentioned that the customer base will be broadening out, and that will be great for Applied, it will also be great for adoption as there are more customers that can supply those types of devices. And we look at the capital intensity is increasing. As I said, in flex OLED, it goes up by about a factor of 2. And we're certainly working on very high-value problems for our customers in the display market that further expand our business. So longer term, we think that this is a very good growth driver for the company.

就像半導體產業一樣，這些顯示技術非常困難。如果你看看行動 OLED，我提到客戶群將會擴大，這對應用材料公司來說是件好事，對普及來說也是件好事，因為有更多的客戶可以提供這類設備。我們看到資本密集度正在增加。正如我所說，在柔性OLED中，這個數字大約會成長2倍。我們當然正在為顯示器市場的客戶解決一些非常有價值的問題，這將進一步擴展我們的業務。因此從長遠來看，我們認為這對公司來說是一個非常好的成長動力。

And our next question will come from the line of Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

接下來，我們將向 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu 提出一個問題。

So Dan, I understand you don't want to call the bottom, but I see like your semiconductor -- what you anticipate for next quarter to be kind of flattish sequentially. And my question is really, if you get the run rate of this quarter, like the money that your client spends with you in DRAM, so that's about $400 million, $500 million in NAND, that kind of run rate, what's happening in the market? What's happening in the installed base? Does that mean 0 capacity additions? Does that mean capacity reduction? So where are we in terms of capacity being added in the market at these run rates?

所以丹，我知道你不想預測底部，但我認為你的半導體業務——你預計下個季度業績將環比持平。我的問題是，如果你能掌握本季的運行速度，例如你的客戶在你這裡購買 DRAM 的金額，也就是大約 4 億美元、5 億美元的 NAND 閃存，這樣的運行速度，那麼市場正在發生什麼？用戶基數方面發生了什麼變化？那是不是代表產能增加為0？那是否意味著產能縮減？那麼，以目前的產能成長速度，市場新增產能的情況又是如何呢？

Thanks, Pierre. As we take a look at the overall market and the willingness to call the bottom, that's as much a function of what we're seeing in the end market as it is just a recognition of the elevated risk environment we find ourselves in, and we just think it's prudent right now to set expectations in a way that reflect that environment. And I just think you see that coming through in the way in which we're talking about the business. And again, it's only intended to be prudent in this environment.

謝謝你，皮埃爾。當我們審視整個市場以及判斷市場底部的意願時，這既取決於我們在終端市場中看到的現象，也取決於我們對當前高風險環境的認識，我們認為，現在謹慎的做法是設定反映這種環境的預期。我覺得從我們談論業務的方式就能看出這一點。再次強調，在這種環境下，這樣做只是出於謹慎考量。

As we take a look at both memory types, and we look at capacity additions, as we think about the investments going in today, the investments are more of a technology transition nature. Technology transitions are fundamentally, as you know, about cost competitiveness of our customers going forward. And so as those markets recover, they're going to need to keep pace from a technology road map standpoint to be cost-competitive as those markets recover.

當我們審視這兩種記憶體類型，並考慮容量增加時，當我們思考當今的投資時，這些投資更像是技術轉型性質的。如您所知，技術轉型從根本上來說是為了提高我們客戶未來的成本競爭力。因此，隨著這些市場的復甦，它們需要從技術路線圖的角度跟上步伐，才能在這些市場復甦時保持成本競爭力。

If we look at the aggregate capacity in each of those markets, we look at them as flat to down slightly in both of those markets. This is not a year for capacity adds. What you see are some conversions going on. And when you convert, you tend to lose some capacity. So investors are acting in a very -- I mean, I'm sorry, the customers are acting in a very profit-minded, disciplined way to keep the supply/demand in balance in a difficult year.

如果我們看一下這兩個市場的總產能，我們會發現這兩個市場的總產能都持平或略有下降。今年不是增加產能的一年。你看到的是一些正在進行的轉換。而且轉換時，往往會損失一些容量。因此，投資者們正在以一種非常——我是說，抱歉，是顧客們——以非常注重盈利、自律的方式行事，以在艱難的一年中保持供需平衡。

I think what that sets us up well for as we exit the year, we do think that our customers under-ship end market demand as they work down inventories in the channel, both their inventories as well as their customers' inventory, and that's a good setup going into 2020. But in this year, we don't expect capacity additions in either of those 2 markets.

我認為，這為我們今年的結束奠定了良好的基礎。我們認為，隨著客戶在通路中減少庫存（包括自己的庫存以及客戶的庫存），他們的終端市場需求會減少，這對進入 2020 年來說是一個不錯的局面。但今年，我們預計這兩個市場都不會增加產能。

And our next question will come from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

接下來，我們將向 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar 提出一個問題。

I had one for Dan. Dan, I just had a question on the buybacks. It looks like your services business is pretty resilient and growing, so that alone can probably fund the dividend easily. And I understand the reluctance to call the bottom, but it looks like you are in a bottoming-out phase. So why wouldn't you be more aggressive with the buyback? Or is it because you're seeing -- are you like keeping this dry powder for M&A for some attractive assets out there? Or is there just a change in the methodology of how you think about buybacks?

我為丹準備了一個。丹，我有個關於股票回購的問題。看來您的服務業務發展勢頭良好且持續成長，僅此一項就足以輕鬆支付股息。我理解大家不願斷言市場已經觸底，但看起來你們正處於觸底階段。那麼，為什麼不採取更積極的回購策略呢？或者，是因為您在考慮——您是否在為併購市場上一些有吸引力的資產而儲備資金？或者，你對股票回購的看法只是方法論上的改變？

Thanks, Krish. I think the best way to think about this is not read too much in any one quarter in terms of what we do from a buyback. I think you need to take a look at a longer-term trend line of what our company has done. We've always talked about our 3 priorities for capital allocation, and it's a consistent approach to capital allocation that hasn't changed over time.

謝謝你，克里什。我認為最好的思考方式是不要過度關注我們在股票回購方面所做的事情。我認為你需要看一下我們公司長期以來的發展趨勢。我們一直以來都強調資本配置的三個優先事項，而且這種資本配置方法始終如一，沒有隨著時間的推移而改變。

First element is, is we're going to fully fund growth of this company that has an organic and inorganic component to it. The second priority will be to maintain a strong, flexible balance sheet. And the third priority is to take the vast majority of the excess cash and give it back to shareholders. If you look at a 2-decade trend for the company, we're very close to 100% of excess cash has gone back to shareholders.

首先，我們將全力資助這家公司的發展，其發展既包括內生成長也包括外延成長。第二要務是保持穩健、靈活的資產負債表。第三項優先事項是將絕大部分盈餘現金回饋給股東。如果從公司過去二十年的發展趨勢來看，我們已經接近100%的盈餘現金回饋給了股東。

We've been big purchasers of our shares given what we see happening and unfolding in our end markets as a result of the data economy diversifying end market demand in our business. We think that takes the semiconductor industry structurally larger. By implication, that's going to take our industry structurally larger even off the levels we saw in 2018, and Applied will benefit in a very material way.

鑑於數據經濟導致我們業務的終端市場需求多元化，我們看到終端市場正在發生和發展的變化，因此我們大量買入了我們的股票。我們認為這將使半導體產業在結構上更加龐大。這意味著，這將使我們的行業在結構上比 2018 年的水平還要大，而應用材料公司將從中獲得非常實質的益處。

In the last 4 quarters alone, we've repurchased about 8% of the company; last 3 years, around 17%; and the last 5 years, just about 28% of the company. So I think we've been significant purchasers of our shares in light of what we see unfolding. And we think a steady approach to this quarter in/quarter out isn't the right approach to take to drive long-term shareholder value. So I wouldn't read too much into any one quarter and just look at our track record over an extended period of time, which I think is quite strong.

光是過去 4 個季度，我們就回購了公司約 8% 的股份；過去 3 年，約 17%；過去 5 年，約 28%。所以我認為，鑑於目前的發展形勢，我們已經大量買入了我們的股票。我們認為，採取這種按季度穩定推進的方式，並不是提升股東長期價值的正確方法。所以我不會過度專注於任何一個季度的業績，而應該著眼於我們長期以來的業績記錄，我認為我們的業績相當出色。

And our next question will come from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將向摩根士丹利的約瑟夫‧摩爾提出一個問題。

I had a question. Your comments upfront, you talked about NAND kind of stabilizing, and I guess, there are segments of NAND where that's true. But generally, your customers have sort of talked about margin -- margins continuing to come down in the back half. I just want to make sure, I mean, when you're talking about NAND stabilization, that's not weighing heavily into your forecast. It seems like there's fairly dormant NAND spending in the second half. But just as -- when you're talking -- when you see that stabilization, is that kind of upside to your -- the numbers that we're talking about here? Or just how should we think about that?

我有個問題。你之前的評論提到了 NAND 快閃記憶體的穩定性，我想，NAND 快閃記憶體的某些部分確實如此。但總的來說，你的客戶一直在談論利潤率——利潤率在下半年持續下降。我只是想確認一下，我的意思是，當你在談論 NAND 穩定性時，這不會對你的預測產生太大影響。下半年 NAND 快閃記憶體的支出似乎相當低迷。但是，就像——當你談論——當你看到這種穩定時，這是否意味著——我們在這裡討論的這些數字有上升空間？或者我們應該如何看待這個問題？

Thanks, Joe. Let me share a little bit of our thinking, and hopefully, that will help give you insight into where we see the NAND correction cycle.

謝謝你，喬。讓我分享一下我們的一些想法，希望這能幫助您深入了解我們對 NAND 糾錯週期的看法。

If we were on this call a year ago, that was the first time we started to talk about a pullback from an investment standpoint of our customers, and it was still at a time when margins hadn't reached their peak. And so I think it's the first time in the industry's history where you saw that disciplined behavior of our customers begin to pull back at a time when margins were still moving forward. And I think it created some confusion. And the reason I bring that data point up is, is I think the NAND industry is further along the correction cycle than the DRAM industry. And in the prepared comments, we talked about inventory being off of their peaks but still at an elevated level.

如果我們一年前就進行過這樣的電話會議，那將是我們第一次開始從客戶的投資角度討論回檔問題，而當時利潤率還沒有達到高峰。因此，我認為這是行業歷史上第一次出現這種情況：在利潤率仍在上升的時候，我們客戶的自律行為開始倒退。我認為這造成了一些混亂。我之所以提出這個數據點，是因為我認為 NAND 產業比 DRAM 產業走在修正週期的更遠位置。在事先準備好的評論中，我們談到庫存雖然已經脫離峰值，但仍處於較高水平。

So when we talk about early signs of stabilization, I would say it's stabilization not in hindsight or in the past tense. I think it's in the process of stabilizing, hasn't fully stabilized yet. But we feel good that we're seeing those early signs, and we see NAND is further along in that correction cycle than DRAM. So we've got more work to do as an industry. But again, as we roll the business forward off of these levels, we think we profile roughly flat for the rest of the year from a semi system standpoint.

所以，當我們談到早期穩定的跡象時，我認為這種穩定不是事後諸葛亮或過去式。我認為它正在趨於穩定，但還沒有完全穩定下來。但我們很高興看到這些早期跡象，而且我們看到 NAND 在糾正週期中比 DRAM 走得更遠。所以，我們整個產業還有很多工作要做。但同樣地，隨著我們從這些水準繼續推進業務發展，我們認為從半導體系統的角度來看，今年剩餘時間的業務狀況大致會保持穩定。

And our next question will come from the line of Patrick Ho with Stifel.

接下來，我們將向 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho 提出一個問題。

Gary, maybe just as a follow-up to some of the commentary you said about foundry logic and Applied's positioning. Are some of the gains on the market share driven by your growth segments like etch and deposition or are they across the board with some of your leadership process segments as well?

Gary，也許可以作為你之前關於代工邏輯和Applied公司定位的一些評論的補充。市場佔有率的成長部分是由蝕刻和沈積等成長領域所推動的，還是也包括一些領先製程領域？

Patrick, let me give you -- thanks for the question, let me give you some color, maybe overall, in terms of how I see Applied. And within that, I'll talk about the different products.

派崔克，謝謝你的提問，讓我給你一些關於我對應用型大學的看法，也許從整體上來說是這樣。其中，我將介紹不同的產品。

So when I look forward, I see a number of factors that can drive very strong performance for Applied. As we've said before, in the semi market, we're at the biggest -- beginning of the biggest wave we've ever seen, this AI/big data wave. In the next 2 years, we could see this wave building momentum and creating a very strong semiconductor market. At the same time, as I talked about earlier, capital intensity is increasing in memory and foundry logic. And in foundry logic, you see the end of classic Moore's law. And as I talked about earlier, you see customers having 7, 7P, 7-plus, 6 popped up on the road map, some customers talking about many pluses.

展望未來，我認為有很多因素可以推動 Applied 取得非常強勁的業績。正如我們之前所說，在半導體市場，我們正處於有史以來最大浪潮的開端，這股人工智慧/大數據浪潮。未來兩年，我們可能會看到這股浪潮積蓄力量，並打造一個非常強大的半導體市場。同時，正如我之前提到的，記憶體和代工邏輯的資本密集度正在增加。從鑄造業的邏輯來看，經典的摩爾定律已經終結。正如我之前提到的，你會看到客戶的路線圖上出現了 7、7P、7 Plus、6 等字樣，有些客戶也談到了許多附加功能。

Again, I think that's an indication that driving improvements in power, performance area and cost is getting harder and harder. So we certainly see that in both the memory business and in the foundry logic business. And we've talked about this new path forward with 5 drivers. We've had some of our peers talk about similar drivers and some customers talking about those drivers relative to how you're going to improve power performance area and cost. And we're really, really in the beginning of this, but you can see evidence of this in terms of the customer behavior, how they're driving the devices.

我認為這再次表明，在動力、性能和成本方面取得進展變得越來越難。因此，我們在記憶體業務和代工邏輯業務中都看到了這一點。我們已經和 5 位司機討論過這條新的前進道路。我們的一些同行也談到了類似的驅動因素，一些客戶也談到了這些驅動因素與如何提高動力性能和降低成本之間的關係。我們目前還處於起步階段，但從客戶行為以及他們如何使用這些設備來看，已經可以證明這一點。

So that's a great setup for us. If we look at our unit processes, we look at the Integrated Materials Solutions that we have like the 1,000x improvement in leakage current, it's really a great setup for us.

這對我們來說是個很棒的安排。如果我們審視我們的單元工藝，看看我們擁有的整合材料解決方案，例如漏電流降低了 1000 倍，這對我們來說真是一個非常棒的配置。

Let me go a little bit broader and talk about our display business. We've said our display market will pick up over the next 2 years. Capital intensity there is also increasing. Our service business is becoming an increasing part of the company. We have the largest installed base for service. Our subscription-type revenue is also growing very fast. And if the semiconductor market strengthens over the next 2 years, this business can go back to double-digit growth for Applied.

讓我把話題稍微擴大一些，談談我們的展示業務。我們曾說過，未來兩年我們的顯示器市場將會回升。那裡的資本密集度也在增加。我們的服務業務在公司中所佔比例越來越大。我們擁有最大的服務用戶群。我們的訂閱收入也在快速成長。如果半導體市場在未來兩年內走強，Applied公司的這項業務有望恢復兩位數的成長。

So you put the new products that we have that are targeted for the biggest problems our customers have in memory, scaling, the memory devices, addressing the leading-edge foundry and logic performance, power, area, cost, new segments like IoT, communication, automotive power, sensors. All of those things together, if you look out 2 years from now, you've got stronger markets, a stronger position, service still growing, a combination of factors that could be really great for overall performance for Applied.

因此，我們將推出針對客戶在記憶體、擴充功能、記憶體元件、領先的代工和邏輯效能、功耗、面積、成本以及物聯網、通訊、汽車電源、感測器等新興領域所面臨的最大問題的新產品。綜合以上所有因素，展望未來兩年，你會發現市場更加強勁，市場地位更加穩固，服務業務仍在增長，這些因素的結合可能會對 Applied 的整體業績產生非常積極的影響。

And our next question will come from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

接下來，我們將向 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini 提出一個問題。

All the good ones have been asked, but I have a couple of follow-ups. One for Gary. I just want to better understand how a greenfield fab would help with some of these initiatives that you have taken over the past 2 years versus the existing fabs that are basically being converted like there are fabs -- NAND fabs that are being converted from a 64-layer 3D NAND to 96. And there are greenfield fabs, the same for DRAM. So as these greenfield fabs at some time in the future are actually going to turn on again, would that create a bigger opportunity for you given all the R&Ds of the past? Or is that going to be the same as a fab being converted? And I have a follow-up.

好的方面都問過了，但我還有幾個後續問題。給加里一個。我只是想更了解，與現有的工廠（基本上都是改造的，例如從 64 層 3D NAND 改造到 96 層）相比，新建一座晶圓廠將如何幫助您在過去 2 年中採取的一些舉措。還有新建的晶圓廠，DRAM 也是。因此，鑑於過去所有的研發投入，當這些新建的晶圓廠在未來某個時候重新投產時，這是否會為您創造更大的機會？或者說，這和改造晶圓廠是一樣的？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. I think the bigger -- so certainly, the greenfield fabs create a bigger opportunity for us, but I think that really the biggest factor for us is what technologies are enabling those future devices when they ramp those greenfield factories. So if you look at DRAM, as I mentioned, DRAM, you have the periphery moving to more logic-like type structures. So similar to what we saw in 28-nanometer foundry, you see strong demand for PVD implant, thermal processing, CMP, DRAM. You see capacitor formation, new structures.

是的。我認為規模越大——當然，新建的晶圓廠為我們創造了更大的機會，但我認為對我們來說，真正最重要的因素是，當這些新建工廠擴大規模時，哪些技術能夠支援未來的設備。所以，如果你看看 DRAM，正如我所提到的，DRAM 的外圍結構正在轉向更像邏輯的結構。與我們在 28 奈米晶圓代工中看到的情況類似，PVD 注入、熱處理、CMP、DRAM 等製程的需求強勁。你可以看到電容器的形成，新的結構。

We have positive patterning inflections for Applied in memory, I/O layer formations, so many things within DRAM. In 3D NAND, scaling is about multiple things, more layers, more tiers, focusing on layer thickness, lateral scaling. We're winning new etch applications in NAND. And one of the things that is most important in scaling NAND is new materials, especially high selectivity hard mask, where we have very strong capability. We have a new hard mask material that increases etch selectivity by 50%, and we already see qualifications in future technology nodes.

我們在記憶體、I/O 層形成以及 DRAM 內部的許多方面都看到了應用材料的積極圖案化轉變。在 3D NAND 中，擴展涉及多個方面，例如更多層、更多層級、關注層厚度、橫向擴展。我們在NAND快閃記憶體蝕刻應用領域不斷贏得新訂單。在擴展 NAND 晶片規模方面，最重要的事情之一是新材料，特別是高選擇性硬掩模，我們在這方面擁有非常強大的能力。我們有一種新型硬掩模材料，可將刻蝕選擇性提高 50%，並且我們已經在未來的技術節點中看到了其應用效果。

So a lot of those types of technologies, Mehdi, are ones that are enabling our memory customers. We have similar types of technologies for foundry and logic. And then the other thing, again, I wanted to talk about that I mentioned before, are the Integrated Materials Solution, combining multiple technologies in the same platforms under vacuum. And we see engagements with many of our large customers. It takes some time for those new structures to be integrated into a node, but if you think about customers announcing improvements in power and performance, that's a key part of their competitiveness. We have technologies that enable improvements in power and performance. We have traction in there with many large customers. And again, that will also fuel our growth over the future years.

梅赫迪，所以很多這類技術都在幫助我們的記憶體客戶。我們在晶圓代工和邏輯電路方面擁有類似的技術。還有一點，我之前提到過，我想再談談整合材料解決方案，它將多種技術結合在同一平台上，並在真空環境下進行加工。我們看到與許多大客戶的互動。這些新結構需要一些時間才能整合到節點中，但如果你考慮到客戶宣佈在功率和性能方面有所改進，這就是他們競爭力的關鍵部分。我們擁有能夠提升功率和性能的技術。我們與許多大客戶建立了良好的合作關係。而且，這也將推動我們在未來幾年內實現成長。

And just to build on a little bit of what Gary was talking about to add some dimension, Mehdi, to the greenfield opportunity over time. We're currently, tracking 31 300-millimeter factories around the globe. There's only a couple of them that are in the very early stages of beginning to take equipment. And if we look at the aggregate WFE that those facilities represent, it's about almost $180 billion of WFE over time.

梅赫迪，我想在加里剛才談到的內容的基礎上，進一步闡述綠地開發的機會，隨著時間的推移，這方面會有一些新的視角。我們目前正在追蹤全球 31 家 300 毫米工廠。只有少數幾家公司還處於開始購置設備的初期階段。如果我們看一下這些設施所代表的總 WFE，隨著時間的推移，WFE 約為 1800 億美元。

So our customers are preparing for something that we think takes our industry structurally larger and is going to benefit Applied Materials as these macro trends we're talking about play out over time. So we're really encouraged by both the conversions and technology buys we see today as well as future greenfield build-outs over time.

因此，我們的客戶正在為一些我們認為會從結構上擴大我們行業規模，並且隨著我們談論的這些宏觀趨勢隨著時間的推移而發展，應用材料公司將從中受益的事情做準備。因此，我們對目前看到的轉型和技術收購，以及未來一段時間內的新建項目都感到非常鼓舞。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up for you, Dan, and apologies if the topic has already come up. What should we think of OpEx looking into the second half?

知道了。丹，我還有一個後續問題想問你，如果這個話題之前已經討論過了，我先道個歉。我們該如何看待下半年的營運支出？

So I think we want to guide one quarter at a time. We'll talk about Q4 3 months from now. What I did say in the Q&A just to help give you some perspective on it, Mehdi, is we expect to keep OpEx flat this year with where we ended up 2018. And I think between the 2 quarters we've printed, the one quarter we've guided, I think that gives you a sense of where the rest of the year is likely to unfold.

所以我認為我們應該一次指導一個季度。我們將在三個月後討論第四季的情況。梅赫迪，我在問答環節中提到，為了幫助你更好地理解這個問題，我們預計今年的營運支出將與 2018 年的水平持平。我認為，結合我們已經公佈的兩個季度業績和我們給出的一個季度業績指引，這應該可以讓你大致了解今年剩餘時間的走勢。

Our last question will come from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

最後一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton 家族。

I just wanted to follow up on Dan's comments in the prepared script about the opportunity for field upgrade, retrofits and parts. How much of that comes into the AGS business? How much of that drives the semiconductor systems? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

我只是想就丹在準備好的稿子中關於現場升級、改造和零件機會的評論做個補充說明。其中有多少流入了AGS業務？其中有多少驅動著半導體系統？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. Let me see. Let me just pull up some data so I'm going to give you the right perspective. So if we look -- the vast majority of that number rolls in through AGS. Let's say, roughly maybe 20% of the number rolls through our Semiconductor Systems business, which includes [nonsystem] upgrades as well as 300-millimeter refurbs. So it's roughly 80-20 give or take.

是的。讓我看看。讓我調出一些數據，這樣我才能給你一個正確的視角。所以如果我們看一下——其中絕大多數都是透過 AGS 流入的。假設其中約 20% 的產品流經我們的半導體系統業務，其中包括（非系統）升級以及 300 毫米翻新。所以大概是 80 比 20 左右。

Great. And then just a quick follow-up on the -- with the recent escalation in the tariff uncertainties. Again, have you done any -- taking a look at what might happen to cost of goods if we get tariffs on the next $325 billion of China imports, would that have a meaningful impact on cost? Or do you think you're pretty well insulated from that event, should it happen?

偉大的。然後，我想就最近關稅不確定性的加劇做個簡短的後續說明。再說一遍，你有沒有做過這樣的研究──看看如果我們對接下來3,250億美元的中國進口商品徵收關稅，商品成本會發生什麼變化，這會對成本產生實質的影響嗎？或者你認為，如果這件事發生，你能夠很好地避免受到影響？

Yes. Thanks for the follow-up. We feel pretty good about where we sit. If we look at everything that's been enacted to date and what's been discussed most recently, we think we've got plans in place to offset the impact so that the net impact of any of those tariffs becomes an immaterial impact to the company. Clearly, it's something we're going to watch very closely. We'll continue to optimize our footprint and our operations and how we've geared our supply chain and logistics organization to make sure we continue to minimize the impact. But right now, given where we sit and what we know today, we think the net impact is going to be immaterial to the overall results of the company.

是的。謝謝你的後續跟進。我們對目前的處境感到相當滿意。如果我們回顧迄今為止已經實施的所有措施以及最近討論過的內容，我們認為我們已經制定了計劃來抵消這些影響，從而使任何關稅的淨影響對公司而言都變得微不足道。顯然，我們會密切關注此事。我們將繼續優化我們的佈局和運營，以及我們調整供應鏈和物流組織的方式，以確保我們繼續將影響降到最低。但就目前我們所處的位置和我們今天所了解的情況而言，我們認為淨影響對公司的整體業績而言微乎其微。

Thanks, Quinn. Dan, let me just kick it over to you. Anything else you want to say before we close the call?

謝謝你，奎因。丹，我把這個任務交給你了。在結束通話前，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Sure. Thanks, Mike. Just a couple of quick points to close out the call. First, we talked about it on the call. While I'm still not ready to call the bottom of the semiconductor cycle, I do believe we're seeing the early signs of stability, and that's something that I find encouraging.

是的。當然。謝謝你，麥克。最後再補充幾點。首先，我們在電話裡討論過這個問題。雖然我還不認為半導體週期已經觸底，但我相信我們正在看到穩定的早期跡象，這讓我感到鼓舞。

Second, I like our setup for 2020. I believe off of these levels, WFE can grow into next year. I also think display can be higher, and we've talked about the great job the team is doing executing against recurring revenue in our services business. So I especially like the setup around Applied as we look into 2020.

其次，我喜歡我們2020年的安排。我相信，以目前的水平來看，WFE明年可以繼續發展壯大。我也認為展示效果可以更好，而且我們已經討論過團隊在服務業務中實現經常性收入方面做得非常出色。因此，我特別喜歡 Applied 在展望 2020 年時所採取的策略。

Third, I believe the new bets we're making from a technology standpoint, Gary spent a lot of time talking about it on the call, I think they're going to pay off in a big way as the next wave of computing takes off. I hope you join us at the AI Design Forum over the summer. We'll share with you a lot more of what we are doing during that conference.

第三，我相信我們從技術角度做出的新投資（Gary 在電話會議上花了很多時間談論這一點），隨著下一波運算浪潮的到來，這些投資將會獲得巨大的回報。希望您能在今年夏天參加我們的AI設計論壇。我們將在那次會議期間與大家分享更多我們正在進行的工作。

Lastly, over the next couple of weeks, Gary and I are going to be seeing many of you. We're both going to travel to the Bernstein conference at the end of the month. And then, I will be in New York for the Cowen conference and also Europe for BNP. With that, Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

最後，在接下來的幾周里，我和加里將會見到你們中的許多人。月底我們兩個都要去參加伯恩斯坦會議。然後，我將前往紐約參加 Cowen 會議，並前往歐洲參加 BNP 會議。麥克，那我們就結束通話吧。

All right. Thanks, Dan, and we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call will be available on our website by 5:00 p.m. Pacific Time. And we'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。謝謝丹，也謝謝今天所有到場的各位。電話會議的錄音將於下午 5 點前在我們的網站上提供。太平洋時間。我們衷心感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation on today's conference. This does conclude our program, and we may all disconnect. Everybody, have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。我們的節目到此結束，大家可以斷開連結了。祝大家今天過得愉快。