應用材料 (AMAT) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call.

歡迎來到應用材料公司財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President.

我現在想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Hello, everyone, and good afternoon.

大家好，下午好。

Thank you for joining our Second Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Call, which is being recorded.

感謝您加入我們正在錄製的 2019 財年第二季度財報電話會議。

Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

加入我的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Dickerson；和我們的首席財務官 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ.

這些陳述受到可能導致我們的實際結果不同的風險和不確定性的影響。

Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

有關風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 最近提交給 SEC 的 10-Q 和 8-K 表格中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的對賬幻燈片中可以找到對 GAAP 措施的對賬，這些幻燈片可在我們網站應用材料的 IR 頁面上找到。

Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement.

在我們開始之前，我有一個日曆公告。

On Tuesday, July 9, Applied will host a Technology Day for the financial analyst community and other industry participants.

7 月 9 日星期二，Applied 將為金融分析師社區和其他行業參與者舉辦技術日。

The events will take place in San Francisco beginning at 8:00 a.m.

活動將於上午 8:00 在舊金山舉行。

Pacific Time.

太平洋時間。

Gary Dickerson will be joined by other CEOs and technology leaders from throughout the semiconductor, hardware, software and data center ecosystem.

Gary Dickerson 將與來自整個半導體、硬件、軟件和數據中心生態系統的其他首席執行官和技術領導者一起加入。

We hope you'll join us, and we'll be in touch with invitations and more details.

我們希望你能加入我們，我們將與邀請和更多細節保持聯繫。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給 Gary Dickerson。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，邁克。

In our second fiscal quarter, we delivered results toward the top end of our guidance range reflecting solid execution across the company and a challenging business environment.

在我們的第二個財政季度，我們的業績達到了我們指導範圍的高端，反映了整個公司的穩健執行和充滿挑戰的商業環境。

Overall, our outlook has not changed significantly since our February call.

總體而言，自 2 月份電話會議以來，我們的前景並未發生重大變化。

Investment by memory and display customers remains muted for the time being, and we continue to pay attention to the broader macroeconomic risks.

內存和顯示客戶的投資暫時保持低迷，我們繼續關注更廣泛的宏觀經濟風險。

Looking further ahead, we maintain our strong positive view of our markets as powerful new demand drivers take shape.

展望未來，隨著強大的新需求驅動因素的形成，我們對市場保持強烈的積極看法。

We're excited about the opportunities these secular trends create for Applied, and while we're carefully managing discretionary spending consistent with current market conditions, fueling our long-term growth remains a top priority.

我們對這些長期趨勢為 Applied 創造的機會感到興奮，雖然我們正在根據當前市場條件謹慎管理可自由支配的支出，但推動我們的長期增長仍然是重中之重。

We are focusing on driving R&D to accelerate customers' road maps, building new capabilities and positioning Applied to play a bigger and broader role in the AI big data era.

我們專注於推動研發以加速客戶的路線圖，構建新的能力和定位應用在人工智能大數據時代發揮更大更廣泛的作用。

In today's call, I'll begin with our latest perspective on near-term market dynamics.

在今天的電話會議中，我將從我們對近期市場動態的最新觀點開始。

Then, I'll talk briefly about the future growth drivers that are reshaping the semiconductor and display industries as well as the implications for Applied, and I'll finish by describing our performance and strategic priorities.

然後，我將簡要討論正在重塑半導體和顯示器行業的未來增長動力以及對應用的影響，最後我將描述我們的業績和戰略重點。

Starting with the near-term environment, our view of 2019 is largely the same as it was at the start of the year and shaped by 2 key factors.

從近期環境開始，我們對 2019 年的看法與年初基本相同，並受到兩個關鍵因素的影響。

First, the semiconductor industry is in a period of diversification.

首先，半導體產業正處於多元化時期。

If you look back over the past 5 years or so, you will see that smartphones drove the majority of semiconductor capital investments.

如果您回顧過去 5 年左右的時間，您會發現智能手機推動了大部分半導體資本投資。

We believe that is changing.

我們相信這種情況正在改變。

As we transition to the AI/big data era, major new drivers are emerging that will fuel industry growth for years to come.

隨著我們過渡到人工智能/大數據時代，主要的新驅動力正在出現，這將推動未來幾年的行業增長。

Although we're only in the early stages of the build-out, we see the combination of cloud data centers, 5G infrastructure, IoT and automotive technologies underpinning a much more significant portion of wafer fab equipment spending in 2019.

儘管我們僅處於擴建的早期階段，但我們看到雲數據中心、5G 基礎設施、物聯網和汽車技術的結合支撐了 2019 年晶圓廠設備支出的更重要部分。

The second major factor impacting this year ahead is the memory cycle that the industry has been navigating for the past several quarters.

未來影響今年的第二個主要因素是該行業在過去幾個季度中一直在導航的內存週期。

Recent data shows that NAND pricing is stabilizing and inventory levels are down from their peak, although they still remain above normal levels.

最近的數據顯示，NAND 價格正在企穩，庫存水平已從峰值回落，但仍高於正常水平。

DRAM is not as far along in the correction cycle with high inventory levels and prices still falling.

DRAM 在修正週期中並沒有那麼遠，庫存水平很高，價格仍在下跌。

As I've said before, I believe this memory cycle is different from those of the past.

正如我之前所說，我相信這個記憶週期與過去不同。

The fundamental dynamics in the market are healthy with disciplined investments in capacity.

市場的基本動態是健康的，有紀律的產能投資。

This year, customers are focusing resources on advancing their technology road maps and overall memory spending will be down significantly from 2018.

今年，客戶將資源集中在推進他們的技術路線圖上，總體內存支出將比 2018 年大幅下降。

We expect inventory levels to normalize as the year progresses, creating a more favorable environment for capacity investments in 2020.

我們預計庫存水平將隨著時間的推移而正常化，為 2020 年的產能投資創造更有利的環境。

In foundry logic, we have seen customers' plans firm up over the past few months and now expect spending to be up year-on-year.

在代工邏輯中，我們已經看到過去幾個月客戶的計劃堅定，現在預計支出將同比增長。

In aggregate, our view of overall wafer fab equipment spending in 2019 is unchanged.

總體而言，我們對 2019 年整體晶圓廠設備支出的看法保持不變。

We still see spending down mid- to high teens on a percent basis versus last year.

與去年相比，我們仍然看到中高青少年的支出百分比有所下降。

In display, the picture is also consistent with our outlook from last quarter.

在展示中，圖片也與我們上季度的展望一致。

We are still anticipating that our 2019 display revenues will decline by about 1/3 from 2018's level as customers push out investments.

我們仍然預計，隨著客戶推出投資，我們 2019 年的顯示器收入將比 2018 年的水平下降約 1/3。

Over the longer term, we maintain our view that display is an attractive market, which is becoming more technology-intensive and increasingly dependent on materials' innovation.

從長遠來看，我們仍然認為顯示器是一個有吸引力的市場，該市場正變得越來越技術密集，並且越來越依賴材料的創新。

The introduction of larger substrates in TV manufacturing as well as rigid and flexible OLED technologies for mobile applications creates important growth opportunities for Applied over the next several years.

在電視製造中引入更大的基板以及用於移動應用的剛性和柔性 OLED 技術為應用材料公司在未來幾年創造了重要的增長機會。

Even as we work through this period of softer demand, I believe it's critically important we do not lose sight of the bigger picture.

即使我們度過了這段需求疲軟的時期，我相信我們不要忽視大局，這一點至關重要。

Major new industry growth drivers are emerging in the form of IoT, next-generation communications, big data and artificial intelligence.

以物聯網、下一代通信、大數據和人工智能的形式出現了主要的新行業增長動力。

These technologies are disruptive and transformative and will touch almost every area of the economy and our lives.

這些技術具有顛覆性和變革性，將觸及經濟和我們生活的幾乎所有領域。

From a semiconductor perspective, we believe the AI/big data era will be characterized by 2 major inflections.

從半導體的角度來看，我們認為人工智能/大數據時代將出現兩大轉折點。

The first is the computing architecture inflection towards AI workloads as we move beyond general-purpose computing to specialized systems designed for new applications in the cloud and at the edge.

首先是計算架構轉向人工智能工作負載，因為我們從通用計算轉向為雲和邊緣新應用程序設計的專用系統。

The second is overcoming the deceleration of classic Moore's law scaling to deliver system-level improvements in power, performance and cost that will unlock the full potential of AI and big data.

第二個是克服經典摩爾定律縮放的減速，在功率、性能和成本方面提供系統級改進，從而釋放人工智能和大數據的全部潛力。

We see a new industry playbook for semiconductor design and manufacturing emerging that includes 5 key components: new architectures; 3D structures and scaling techniques; novel materials; new ways to shrink feature sizes; and advanced packaging, including new ways to connect chips together.

我們看到了半導體設計和製造的新行業手冊，其中包括 5 個關鍵組件：新架構； 3D 結構和縮放技術；新材料；縮小特徵尺寸的新方法；和先進的封裝，包括將芯片連接在一起的新方法。

We see Applied's breadth and depth as a key strength as we collaborate broadly to address the technology challenges that will enable this new playbook.

我們將 Applied 的廣度和深度視為關鍵優勢，因為我們廣泛合作以應對將實現這一新劇本的技術挑戰。

Our strategic priorities are to accelerate innovation for our customers while finding new ways to create sustainable value with our technology.

我們的戰略重點是為我們的客戶加速創新，同時尋找利用我們的技術創造可持續價值的新方法。

I'll highlight 4 important ways that we're doing this.

我將重點介紹我們這樣做的 4 種重要方式。

First, we're building new capabilities.

首先，我們正在構建新的能力。

We're creating powerful R&D platforms like the META Center in New York and the advanced packaging lab in Singapore to complement our existing Maydan Technology Center in Silicon Valley.

我們正在創建強大的研發平台，例如紐約的 META 中心和新加坡的先進封裝實驗室，以補充我們在矽谷現有的 Maydan 技術中心。

In parallel, we are leveraging state-of-the-art centers in metrology combined with data science, machine learning and simulation to reduce product development cycles and speed up transfer of new technologies from lab to fab.

與此同時，我們正在利用最先進的計量中心與數據科學、機器學習和模擬相結合，以縮短產品開發週期並加快新技術從實驗室到工廠的轉移。

Second, we're developing entirely new types of products to address the most complex challenges in a chip manufacturing process from the introduction of novel materials to key integration bottlenecks.

其次，我們正在開發全新類型的產品，以解決芯片製造過程中從引入新材料到關鍵集成瓶頸的最複雜挑戰。

Some of our key areas of focus include: critical deposition, implant and etch processes to scale current memory structures; the introduction of novel materials combined with sub angstom level control of those materials that are needed to enable new memories, including MRAM, ReRAM and PC RAM; new materials and interface engineering to enable significant improvements in power efficiency and performance at leading-edge foundry logic nodes; and next generation advanced packaging for heterogeneous integration.

我們關注的一些關鍵領域包括：關鍵的沉積、注入和蝕刻工藝，以擴展當前的內存結構；引入新材料，並結合對啟用新存儲器（包括 MRAM、ReRAM 和 PC RAM）所需材料的亞埃級控制；新材料和界面工程，可顯著提高領先代工邏輯節點的功率效率和性能；以及用於異構集成的下一代先進封裝。

Our product pipeline spans from new unit process tools all the way to Integrated Materials Solutions, or IMS, where we can combine multiple processes together with customized metrology within a single system.

我們的產品線從新的單元工藝工具一直延伸到集成材料解決方案或 IMS，我們可以在單個系統中將多個工藝與定制計量相結合。

Third, we are expanding our engagements across the AI ecosystem to accelerate innovation from materials to systems.

第三，我們正在擴大我們在人工智能生態系統中的參與，以加速從材料到系統的創新。

In July, we will be hosting another AI Design Forum, bringing together leading companies in the field to support deeper collaboration between system architects, chip designers and the manufacturing community.

7 月，我們將舉辦另一場 AI 設計論壇，匯集該領域的領先公司，以支持系統架構師、芯片設計師和製造社區之間更深入的合作。

I hope that many of you will be able to join us for this event.

我希望你們中的許多人能夠加入我們參加這個活動。

And fourth, we're building a more resilient company that performs well and can continue to fuel innovation in a variety of market conditions.

第四，我們正在建立一家更具彈性的公司，該公司表現良好，可以在各種市場條件下繼續推動創新。

For example, increasing our focus on our service business has been a great way to deliver additional value to customers while providing a revenue stream that is relatively decoupled from industry cycles.

例如，增加我們對服務業務的關註一直是為客戶提供額外價值的好方法，同時提供與行業周期相對脫鉤的收入流。

We expect Applied Global Services to deliver high single-digit growth this year even in an environment where semiconductor and display customers are trimming their capital spending.

我們預計，即使在半導體和顯示器客戶正在削減資本支出的環境下，Applied Global Services 今年也將實現高個位數增長。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'll quickly summarize.

在我將電話轉給 Dan 之前，我將快速總結一下。

Despite soft, near-term demand, the company is delivering solid performance.

儘管近期需求疲軟，但該公司的業績表現穩健。

We are prudently managing discretionary spending and relentlessly focusing on our R&D pipeline.

我們正在謹慎管理可自由支配的支出，並不懈地專注於我們的研發管道。

We expect 2020 to be a more positive setup, both in terms of industry spending and how much of that spending Applied can address.

我們預計 2020 年將是一個更加積極的環境，無論是在行業支出方面，還是在應用材料公司可以解決的支出方面。

And we remain highly optimistic about the longer term.

我們對長期保持高度樂觀。

As powerful new drivers for semiconductors and displays emerge, we see tremendous opportunities for Applied Materials.

隨著半導體和顯示器的強大新驅動力的出現，我們看到了應用材料公司的巨大機遇。

Now Dan will provide his perspective on our performance and outlook.

現在，丹將就我們的表現和前景發表他的看法。

Thanks, Gary.

謝謝，加里。

In Q2, Applied delivered solid financial results in a challenging environment.

在第二季度，應用材料公司在充滿挑戰的環境中取得了穩健的財務業績。

While we're still not ready to call the bottom of the semi equipment cycle, I believe our industry thesis is very much intact.

雖然我們還沒有準備好稱半設備週期的底部，但我相信我們的行業論點非常完整。

New demand drivers are taking shape.

新的需求驅動因素正在形成。

And even in this memory correction year, wafer fab equipment spending could be $10 billion higher than the peaks of all the prior cycles.

即使在這個內存修正年，晶圓廠設備支出也可能比之前所有周期的峰值高出 100 億美元。

In this environment, I'm focused on 4 financial priorities: carefully managing our overall expenses; fully funding our new product pipeline; maximizing our recurring revenue; and delivering attractive cash returns to our shareholders.

在這種環境下，我專注於 4 個財務優先事項：謹慎管理我們的整體開支；為我們的新產品線提供充分的資金；最大化我們的經常性收入；並為我們的股東提供有吸引力的現金回報。

I'll share my thoughts on each one.

我會分享我對每一個的想法。

First, in Q2, we reported OpEx of $745 million, which was below the midpoint of our guidance, it was also below our spending in Q1, which included a holiday shutdown and only 1 month of this year's merit increase.

首先，在第二季度，我們報告的運營支出為 7.45 億美元，低於我們指導的中點，也低於我們在第一季度的支出，其中包括假期停工和今年僅 1 個月的績效增長。

We'll continue to keep a tight rein on discretionary spending.

我們將繼續嚴格控制可自由支配的支出。

Second.

第二。

At the same time, we are fully funding R&D.

同時，我們正在全力資助研發。

As Gary described, our customers need more innovation than ever to improve chip performance, power and cost.

正如 Gary 所描述的，我們的客戶需要比以往更多的創新來提高芯片性能、功耗和成本。

We're investing in unique systems that enable new architectures, materials, 3D design techniques and packaging in addition to 2D scaling.

除了 2D 縮放之外，我們正在投資支持新架構、材料、3D 設計技術和封裝的獨特系統。

Third, in addition to strengthening our competitiveness in the near term, these investments will increase our installed base and give us more opportunities to earn recurring revenue well into the future.

第三，除了在短期內增強我們的競爭力外，這些投資還將增加我們的安裝基礎，並為我們提供更多在未來賺取經常性收入的機會。

I'll give you some metrics to think about.

我會給你一些指標來考慮。

You may know that Applied has the largest installed base in the industry of more than 40,000 systems.

您可能知道 Applied 擁有超過 40,000 個系統的業內最大的安裝基礎。

Many of our systems have multiple chambers, and we actually have over 140,000 chambers in the field.

我們的許多系統都有多個腔室，實際上我們在現場擁有超過 140,000 個腔室。

Helping customers maximize the installed base is a key opportunity for Applied, especially in a year like 2019.

幫助客戶最大化安裝基礎是應用材料公司的一個關鍵機會，尤其是在 2019 年這樣的年份。

This year, we expect to generate about 40% of our semi-related revenue from the installed base, which includes 200- and 300-millimeter upgrades, refurbs, parts and services.

今年，我們預計大約 40% 的半相關收入來自安裝基礎，其中包括 200 和 300 毫米的升級、翻新、零件和服務。

The most strategic pillar of the AGS growth strategy is long-term service agreements, which allow us to deliver the most value to our customers and generate subscription-like revenue for Applied.

AGS 增長戰略中最具戰略意義的支柱是長期服務協議，這使我們能夠為客戶提供最大的價值，並為 Applied 創造類似訂閱的收入。

Today, more than 20% of our semi-installed base is covered by long-term agreements.

今天，我們超過 20% 的半裝機基礎由長期協議覆蓋。

This business needs to be earned, and we do it by generating recurring value to our customers in the form of faster ramps, higher yields, greater throughput and lower costs.

這項業務需要贏得，我們通過以更快的坡道、更高的產量、更大的吞吐量和更低的成本為客戶創造經常性價值來實現這一目標。

Our strongest growth comes from advanced services, where we use data science to help our customers achieve maximum performance and continuous improvement.

我們最強勁的增長來自先進的服務，我們使用數據科學幫助我們的客戶實現最佳性能和持續改進。

Our renewal rates are world-class.

我們的續訂率是世界一流的。

2018 was the first year when AGS generated over 50% of services and spares revenue from subscription-like agreements.

2018 年是 AGS 產生超過 50% 的服務並從類似訂閱的協議中節省收入的第一年。

In 2019, we expect to grow the subscription part of the business at about twice the rate of the segment as a whole.

2019 年，我們預計訂閱部分業務的增長速度約為整個細分市場的兩倍。

Finally, cash returns.

最後，現金回報。

As Gary said, the memory correction we're seeing today is different from those of the past.

正如加里所說，我們今天看到的記憶修正與過去不同。

For our part, we are still generating solid profitability and more cash flow than we need to support the business.

就我們而言，我們仍然產生了可觀的盈利能力和比支持業務所需的更多現金流。

In Q2, we generated operating cash flow of $800 million, and we returned $814 million to shareholders.

在第二季度，我們產生了 8 億美元的經營現金流，我們向股東返還了 8.14 億美元。

We paid $189 million in dividends, and we announced a 5% dividend increase.

我們支付了 1.89 億美元的股息，並宣布將股息增加 5%。

We were opportunistic with the buyback program, using $625 million to repurchase approximately 16 million shares.

我們對回購計劃持機會主義態度，使用 6.25 億美元回購了大約 1600 萬股股票。

In fact, over the past 4 quarters, we've repurchased 8% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of that period.

事實上，在過去的 4 個季度中，我們已經回購了 8% 的期初流通股。

Over a 5-year basis, we bought back approximately 28% of the shares.

在 5 年的基礎上，我們回購了大約 28% 的股份。

Looking ahead, we're excited about the industry and confident that the actions we're taking today will generate substantial shareholder value in the years ahead.

展望未來，我們對該行業感到興奮，並相信我們今天採取的行動將在未來幾年為股東創造可觀的價值。

Now I'll summarize our Q2 results.

現在我將總結我們的第二季度結果。

We delivered company revenue of $3.54 billion, which was slightly above the midpoint of guidance.

我們實現了 35.4 億美元的公司收入，略高於指導的中點。

Non-GAAP gross margin was 43.5% and in line with our outlook as the revenue upside was relatively balanced across the segments.

非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 43.5%，符合我們的預期，因為各部門的收入增長相對平衡。

We held non-GAAP OpEx at $745 million, and we generated non-GAAP earnings of $0.70, which was the top of our guidance range.

我們持有 7.45 億美元的非 GAAP 運營支出，我們產生了 0.70 美元的非 GAAP 收益，這是我們指導範圍的頂部。

Turning to the segments.

轉向細分市場。

Semiconductor Systems revenue was $2.18 billion and slightly above the midpoint of our outlook, and non-GAAP operating margin was 27%.

半導體系統收入為 21.8 億美元，略高於我們展望的中點，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 27%。

Global services revenue was $984 million, which is a new record and demonstrates how well we're growing the business even in a correction year for the industry.

全球服務收入為 9.84 億美元，這是一個新紀錄，表明即使在行業調整的年份，我們的業務增長情況也是如此。

AGS non-GAAP operating margin was 28.8%.

AGS 非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 28.8%。

Display revenue was $348 million, which was above the midpoint of our outlook as some of the systems scheduled for Q3 actually shipped before the end of Q2.

顯示收入為 3.48 億美元，高於我們預期的中點，因為計劃在第三季度的一些系統實際上在第二季度末之前發貨。

Display non-GAAP operating margin declined 10.1 points sequentially, and we expect the margin to recover along with revenue in the upcoming quarters.

顯示器非 GAAP 營業利潤率環比下降 10.1 個百分點，我們預計利潤率將在未來幾個季度隨著收入的增長而恢復。

Turning to the balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。

We ended the quarter with $5.2 billion in cash and investments and nearly $3 billion remaining in our buyback authorization.

我們在本季度結束時擁有 52 億美元的現金和投資，以及近 30 億美元的回購授權。

Next, I'll provide our Q3 guidance.

接下來，我將提供我們的第三季度指導。

We expect the company revenue to be approximately $3.525 billion, plus or minus $150 million, and we expect non-GAAP earnings to be in the range of $0.67 to $0.75 per share.

我們預計公司收入約為 35.25 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元，我們預計非美國通用會計準則收益將在每股 0.67 美元至 0.75 美元之間。

Within this outlook, we expect semiconductor systems revenue to be approximately $2.175 billion.

在此展望中，我們預計半導體系統收入約為 21.75 億美元。

Services revenue should be about $990 million.

服務收入應約為 9.9 億美元。

Display revenue should be around $335 million.

顯示收入應該在 3.35 億美元左右。

We expect non-GAAP gross margin to increase by about 30 basis points sequentially and non-GAAP OpEx should be approximately flat sequentially.

我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將環比增長約 30 個基點，非 GAAP 運營支出應環比持平。

Now, Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

現在，邁克，讓我們開始問答吧。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

(Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

（操作員說明）操作員，讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 C.J. Muse 與 Evercore 的系列。

I guess, to follow up on your commentary regarding 2020 and more favorable capacity spending environment, can you walk through how you're expecting the mix there?

我想，為了跟進你對 2020 年和更有利的產能支出環境的評論，你能談談你對那裡的組合有何期待嗎？

What the implications would look like to your market share?

對您的市場份額有何影響？

And how we should think about silicon operating margins bouncing off the current lows of the 27%?

我們應該如何看待從當前低點 27% 反彈的矽營業利潤率？

And whether we should be thinking at least over time, we can get back into the mid-30s?

我們是否應該考慮至少隨著時間的推移，我們可以回到 30 年代中期？

So I know a lot there, but I'd love to hear your thoughts.

所以我在那裡知道很多，但我很想听聽你的想法。

Thanks, C.J. Let me start with the overall market profile and then what we expect from a margin standpoint as we roll forward into 2020.

謝謝，C.J.讓我從整體市場概況開始，然後從利潤的角度來看我們在進入 2020 年時的預期。

So as we take a look at where we sit in 2019, we talked about the overall WFE being down mid- to high teens.

因此，當我們看看我們在 2019 年所處的位置時，我們談到了整個 WFE 處於中高水平。

Our view on that hasn't changed.

我們對此的看法沒有改變。

That puts us in about a mid-$40 billion range for WFE this year.

這使我們今年的 WFE 處於 400 億美元左右的區間。

As we look at the profile across device types and you look at foundry logic and you look at memory, we think foundry logic is going to be up a little bit this year.

當我們查看跨設備類型的配置文件並查看代工廠邏輯和內存時，我們認為代工廠邏輯今年會有所上升。

We think memory is going to be down a good amount this year.

我們認為今年的內存會下降很多。

That gives you a bit of a setup on how we're profiling in 2019.

這為您提供了一些關於我們在 2019 年如何進行分析的設置。

As we roll the clock forward, and we look at how WFE is likely to unfold in 2020, we view this as a growth year in WFE.

隨著時間的推移，我們展望 WFE 在 2020 年可能會如何發展，我們認為這是 WFE 增長的一年。

As we look in the foundry logic space, and we have advanced purchases of things like EUV and metrology systems around advanced nodes, we see the capacity adds building out those nodes going in, in 2020 beyond, and we think that's a favorable setup for our overall markets.

當我們查看代工廠邏輯空間時，我們已經提前購買了 EUV 和先進節點周圍的計量系統等東西，我們看到在 2020 年以後構建這些節點的能力會增加，我們認為這對我們來說是一個有利的設置整體市場。

On the memory side, we don't see a memory correction this year, and we do see the memory correction profiling into 2020.

在內存方面，我們今年沒有看到內存修正，但我們確實看到了到 2020 年的內存修正分析。

That is our current expectation.

這是我們目前的期望。

If it happens faster than that, then we'll benefit in a material way.

如果它發生得比這更快，那麼我們將從物質上受益。

The combination of the setup around foundry logic and memory going into 2020 is a favorable setup for Applied, and we feel really good about the position that we're in.

到 2020 年，圍繞代工邏輯和內存的設置組合對 Applied 來說是一個有利的設置，我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好。

As we take a look at operating margins, operating margins are going to be a function of 2 things: how we profile from a gross margin standpoint and how we invest to fund future growth and deliver key enabling technologies to make our customers successful.

當我們看一下營業利潤率時，營業利潤率將取決於兩件事：我們如何從毛利率的角度進行分析，以及我們如何投資以資助未來的增長並提供關鍵的支持技術以使我們的客戶取得成功。

Gross margin in any given quarter, not surprisingly, will vary depending on product mix and customer mix and factory activity levels as well as aggregate revenue levels, and it's going to vary from quarter-to-quarter.

毫不奇怪，任何給定季度的毛利率都會因產品組合和客戶組合、工廠活動水平以及總收入水平而異，並且會因季度而異。

As we look at the investments we are making today, we see 2D scaling and Moore's law increasingly having challenges, we see the road map, and Gary has talked about this in the past, there's a new playbook that our industry is going to create to drive power and performance for our customers.

當我們審視我們今天所做的投資時，我們看到 2D 縮放和摩爾定律越來越面臨挑戰，我們看到了路線圖，Gary 過去曾談到過這一點，我們的行業將創建一個新的劇本為我們的客戶提供動力和性能。

Applied has a key role to play in each of those elements of the new playbook, whether it's materials or architectures or 3D structures or packaging, and we're going to position our business and invest in our business to lead going forward.

Applied 在新劇本的每個元素中都發揮著關鍵作用，無論是材料、架構、3D 結構還是包裝，我們將定位我們的業務並投資於我們的業務以引領未來。

Now that said, in an environment where you see recovery in our end markets and our ability to grow into those end markets, we fully expect to see leverage on both the gross margin and the operating margin line.

話雖如此，在您看到我們的終端市場復甦以及我們進入這些終端市場的能力的環境中，我們完全期望看到毛利率和營業利潤率線的槓桿作用。

Premature at this point, I think, to give a point estimate on 2020, but we like the setup around 2020, and we do think we will see leverage in our margin structure as the business returns to growth.

我認為，在這一點上對 2020 年進行點估計還為時過早，但我們喜歡 2020 年左右的設置，我們確實認為隨著業務恢復增長，我們將看到我們的利潤率結構中的槓桿作用。

Yes.

是的。

C.J., thanks for your question.

C.J.，謝謝你的提問。

Let me start with 2019, and then I'll go to 2020 and beyond and build on some of what Dan talked about.

讓我從 2019 年開始，然後到 2020 年及以後，在丹所說的一些內容的基礎上再接再厲。

While we're not going to forecast 2019 share on the call, we do think '19 is a more favorable setup for Applied.

雖然我們不會在電話會議上預測 2019 年的份額，但我們確實認為 19 年對 Applied 來說是一個更有利的設置。

While we still see additional EUV adoption in 2019, the non-EUV spending mix is more favorable for Applied than it was in 2018.

雖然我們仍然看到 2019 年 EUV 的採用率有所增加，但與 2018 年相比，非 EUV 的支出組合對 Applied 更為有利。

And going forward, I believe that we are very well positioned to drive share gains.

展望未來，我相信我們在推動股價上漲方面處於有利地位。

Customers are struggling to deliver improvements in power, performance and cost.

客戶正在努力改進功率、性能和成本。

And as Dan said and as I've talked about many times, it's very clear a new playbook is needed based on new 3D structures, new materials, new ways to drive costs and new ways to connect chips together.

正如丹所說，正如我多次談到的那樣，很明顯需要一個新的劇本，基於新的 3D 結構、新材料、降低成本的新方法以及將芯片連接在一起的新方法。

A great example of our new playbook is our potential to enable a 1,000x improvement in leakage current.

我們新劇本的一個很好的例子是我們有可能將洩漏電流提高 1,000 倍。

And there are other enabling capabilities that we have that address power, performance and costs that we're not going to discuss in public.

我們還擁有其他解決功率、性能和成本的支持能力，我們不會公開討論。

We're engaged with the majority of our leading customers with Integrated Material Solutions, and we're even more confident that in both future and trailing nodes, we can help our customers integrate new technologies in their chips and drive incremental growth for Applied.

我們通過集成材料解決方案與我們的大多數領先客戶進行了接觸，我們更有信心在未來和後續節點中，我們可以幫助我們的客戶將新技術集成到他們的芯片中，並推動 Applied 的增量增長。

We also have a very strong pipeline of new products, including products that expand our positions into markets that we don't currently serve.

我們還擁有非常強大的新產品管道，包括將我們的地位擴展到我們目前不服務的市場的產品。

Some of those new products are already gaining traction with major customers.

其中一些新產品已經吸引了主要客戶。

So overall, I believe that the setup for Applied is better in '19, and certainly in 2020 and beyond.

所以總的來說，我相信 Applied 的設置在 19 年會更好，當然在 2020 年及以後也會更好。

Our next question will come from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Similar to C.J.'s question on the semiconductor market, I have a question on the display side.

與 C.J. 關於半導體市場的問題類似，我有一個關於顯示器方面的問題。

At recent San Jose, a display conference, there was a fair bit of optimism on display market rebounding next year with third parties talking about 10% to 30% year-over-year growth.

在最近的聖何塞顯示會議上，人們對顯示市場明年的反彈持相當樂觀的態度，第三方談論了 10% 到 30% 的同比增長。

At one point, you guys were talking about tripling your footprint in the display market.

有一次，你們在談論將您在顯示器市場的足跡擴大兩倍。

Can you just talk about how you're looking at 2020 from a display perspective given longer lead times for equipment?

鑑於設備的交貨時間更長，您能否談談您如何從展示的角度看待 2020 年？

Yes.

是的。

Let me start -- and thanks for the question.

讓我開始 - 謝謝你的問題。

Let me give you some color on the display business, I'll start with '19 and then I'll go into 2020.

讓我給你一些關於顯示器業務的顏色，我將從 19 年開始，然後進入 2020 年。

So for 2019, we still expect display revenue to be down about 1/3 from 2018's record levels, with TV now being about 3/4 of the business this year as customers move to Gen 10.5.

因此，對於 2019 年，我們仍預計顯示收入將比 2018 年的創紀錄水平下降約 1/3，隨著客戶轉向 Gen 10.5，電視現在佔今年業務的 3/4 左右。

Going forward, we see demand becoming more balanced between TV and mobile OLED.

展望未來，我們看到電視和移動 OLED 之間的需求變得更加平衡。

And as we look into 2020, based on everything we see today, TV demand looks stable and we expect mobile to grow year-over-year with a broader mobile OLED customer base.

展望 2020 年，根據我們今天看到的一切，電視需求看起來很穩定，我們預計移動設備將隨著更廣泛的移動 OLED 客戶群而同比增長。

And longer term, we see great opportunities that drive growth in the display business.

從長遠來看，我們看到了推動顯示業務增長的巨大機遇。

Some of the new technologies are more capital-intensive.

一些新技術的資本密集度更高。

There are some great inflections where we can create value for customers.

有一些很好的轉折點，我們可以為客戶創造價值。

So overall, again, we see 2020 certainly being better and our position also being stronger as we go forward.

因此，總的來說，我們再次看到 2020 年肯定會更好，並且隨著我們的前進，我們的地位也會變得更強。

Yes.

是的。

And Atif, I think you're also kind of alluding to the new products.

還有Atif，我認為您也暗示了新產品。

I think the next event we do, we're really going to be focusing on semi at SEMICON West, our semi new products, so I think we'll do that.

我認為我們下一次舉辦的活動，我們真的會專注於 SEMICON West 的半成品，我們的半新產品，所以我認為我們會這樣做。

So please just stay tuned on the newer display products, and thank you.

所以請繼續關注更新的顯示產品，謝謝。

Our next question will come from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, I was hoping you could provide an update on what you're seeing in China, not so much from the multinationals but more so the local manufacturers both on the foundry side as well as the memory side?

Gary，我希望你能提供關於你在中國看到的最新情況，不是來自跨國公司，而是更多來自代工廠和內存方面的本地製造商？

Progress in terms of technology, any change in sort of buying patterns given kind of the political backdrop?

技術方面的進步，在某種政治背景下，購買模式有什麼變化嗎？

Any update you can provide there would be helpful.

您可以在那裡提供的任何更新都會有所幫助。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Toshiya.

謝謝你的問題，Toshiya。

So let me give you a color on China.

所以讓我給你一個關於中國的顏色。

China wafer fab equipment will be down year-over-year in '19 versus '18, a small amount.

與 18 年相比，19 年中國晶圓廠設備將同比下降，幅度很小。

We still see domestic flattish and multinational down in China.

我們仍然看到中國國內的平淡和跨國公司的下滑。

In domestic China, we see slightly higher spending on foundry logic versus memory with foundry logic focused on trailing nodes for sensor, IoT, those kinds of devices.

在中國國內，我們看到代工邏輯的支出略高於內存，代工邏輯專注於傳感器、物聯網等設備的尾隨節點。

Within China domestic spending, we're in a great position.

在中國國內支出中，我們處於有利地位。

We expect we're going to maintain a very strong share position in China.

我們預計我們將在中國保持非常強大的份額地位。

In our display business, China is going to be down in line with the overall global display forecast.

在我們的顯示器業務中，中國將與全球顯示器的整體預測一致。

And I would say relative to customer progress, certainly in the domestic foundry logic business, we see a lot of growth in IoT, communications, automotive, power, sensor types of devices, and those are on more trailing nodes.

我想說，相對於客戶的進步，當然在國內代工邏輯業務中，我們看到物聯網、通信、汽車、電源、傳感器類型的設備有很多增長，而且這些設備在更多的尾隨節點上。

Certainly, China has the ability to build those kinds of devices, and again, that's where we see more spending in 2019.

當然，中國有能力製造這類設備，這也是我們在 2019 年看到更多支出的地方。

And we see pretty strong growth there going forward.

我們看到未來會有相當強勁的增長。

In memory, I don't want to comment on any specific customers in terms of progress, but what I would say is that memory is a very difficult market.

在內存方面，我不想評論任何特定客戶的進展，但我想說的是，內存是一個非常困難的市場。

If you look at DRAM, customers are adding letters to their nodes because scaling is becoming more capital-intensive and more difficult.

如果你看一下 DRAM，客戶正在向他們的節點添加字母，因為擴展變得更加資本密集和更加困難。

And certainly, also in 3D NAND, scaling is difficult, and you can see customer presentations where capital intensity is going up as they try to scale those devices.

當然，同樣在 3D NAND 中，擴展也很困難，您可以看到客戶演示中資本密集度正在上升，因為他們試圖擴展這些設備。

So I think that being in the leading-edge memory is very, very, very difficult and will take many, many years.

所以我認為處於領先的記憶是非常、非常、非常困難的，並且需要很多很多年。

And our next question will come from the line of John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

So just going back to your reluctance to call the bottom, Dan, I kind of appreciate the conservatism given the macro uncertainty.

因此，丹，回到您不願觸底的話題，鑑於宏觀不確定性，我有點欣賞保守主義。

But with sort of NAND and DRAM revenue down greater than 50% peak to current, the industry is going to have to invest in 96 layers sometime this year.

但隨著 NAND 和 DRAM 收入從峰值下降超過 50%，該行業將不得不在今年某個時候投資 96 層。

To hit your full year guide on display, [you have talked] a pretty big ramp in the fiscal fourth quarter for that business.

為了展示你的全年指南，[你已經談到]該業務在第四財季的一個相當大的增長。

And services is still kind of structural growth.

服務仍然是一種結構性增長。

I'm kind of just curious, what's the reticence in not calling the bottom?

我有點好奇，不叫底部的沉默是什麼？

Is it something you're seeing in your bottom book forecast?

這是您在底部預測中看到的嗎？

Or is it more about kind of just the macro uncertainty overhang out there?

或者更多的是關於宏觀不確定性的懸垂？

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

I think there's a couple of things at play, at least how I process it.

我認為有幾件事在起作用，至少我是如何處理它的。

So let me share with you a little bit of my thinking, and hopefully, that will give you a bit of color on how we're viewing the world right now.

因此，讓我與您分享一點我的想法，希望這能讓您對我們現在如何看待世界有所了解。

I think our reluctance to call the bottom is a semiconductor comment, it's not an overall company comment.

我認為我們不願稱底部是半導體評論，而不是整體公司評論。

And what I mean by that, if we take a look at our semi business, there's no change to our outlook this year in terms of -- no material change in terms of the WFE, the overall market, down mid- to high teens, mid-$40 billion WFE ZIP Code.

我的意思是，如果我們看一下我們的半成品業務，今年我們的前景沒有變化——WFE、整體市場、中高端市場沒有實質性變化， 400 億美元左右的 WFE 郵政編碼。

I gave you the profile on how foundry logic and memory will profile into this year.

我向您介紹了今年代工邏輯和內存的概況。

And if we go back a quarter on our earnings call, we provide a guidance around our semi systems business to be at a run rate of $2.15 billion and flat for the year.

如果我們在財報電話會議上回顧一個季度，我們將圍繞我們的半導體系統業務提供指導，使其全年的運行速度為 21.5 億美元，並且持平。

Very little has changed in our view on that business.

我們對該業務的看法幾乎沒有改變。

We did a little better than that in Q2.

我們的表現比第二季度要好一些。

We guided a little better than that in Q3, but what we're talking about is really a 1% move, and I think we've got to stay focused on the right run rate to think about the business is about $2.15 billion.

我們的指導比第三季度要好一些，但我們所說的實際上是 1% 的變動，我認為我們必須專注於正確的運行率，以考慮大約 21.5 億美元的業務。

And against that flat profile in semi, we see an OpEx level that underpins that, that's roughly flat with where we were in 2018.

相對於半成品的平坦輪廓，我們看到了支撐這一點的運營支出水平，這與我們在 2018 年的水平大致持平。

If I transition to the services business, we do see a step-up into the back of the year.

如果我過渡到服務業務，我們確實會看到今年年底的進步。

We do have confidence in our high single-digit growth projection for the business.

我們確實對該業務的高個位數增長預測充滿信心。

And I think it's important to note that Q4 is typically a seasonally good quarter for us, so we feel good about how that business profiles.

而且我認為重要的是要注意，第四季度對我們來說通常是一個季節性的好季度，因此我們對該業務的概況感到滿意。

In display for the full year, no change in our outlook.

全年顯示，我們的展望沒有變化。

We said Q2, Q3 would profile very similarly.

我們說 Q2、Q3 的情況非常相似。

We see that playing out.

我們看到了這一點。

We do see growth into the back part of the year.

我們確實看到了今年下半年的增長。

So when you bring it altogether as an overall company for Applied, while we do see flatness from a semi standpoint from this point forward, we do see growth from a services perspective, we see growth off these levels from a display perspective and the overall company will grow from this point in 2019.

因此，當您將其完全作為 Applied 的整體公司時，雖然我們確實從半邊天的角度看到了平坦度，但我們確實從服務的角度看到了增長，我們從展示的角度和整個公司看到了這些水平的增長2019年將從這一點開始增長。

And when we take a look at that mix towards the latter part of the year, we all know that our semi business has the highest gross margin, followed by display, followed by service.

當我們看一下今年下半年的這種組合時，我們都知道我們的半成品業務的毛利率最高，其次是顯示器，其次是服務。

So with flat semi, growing service, growing display, that creates a natural gross margin headwind for us.

因此，隨著平板半導體、不斷增長的服務、不斷增長的展示，這為我們創造了自然的毛利率逆風。

We think we can execute well into that environment, and we're going to look to hold the gross margins flat into Q4, off of the levels we produce in Q3.

我們認為我們可以很好地適應這種環境，並且我們將尋求將毛利率保持在第四季度的水平，而不是我們在第三季度產生的水平。

So we've got confidence that we can execute well into that environment.

所以我們有信心在那個環境中執行得很好。

Now we don't want to guide more than 1 quarter out, and so a quarter from now on our earnings call, we'll let you know what we see in Q4.

現在我們不想指導超過一個季度，所以在我們的財報電話會議之後一個季度，我們將讓你知道我們在第四季度看到的情況。

But we hope to execute well against that natural margin headwind and keep our margins where they're at in Q3.

但我們希望在自然利潤率逆風中表現出色，並將我們的利潤率保持在第三季度的水平。

Our next question will come from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Just on foundry and logic, up 25% sequentially, up 30% year-over-year.

僅在代工和邏輯方面，環比增長 25%，同比增長 30%。

I know you now anticipate this segment to be up versus your prior view of sort of flattish.

我知道你現在預計這部分會比你之前的平淡看法有所上升。

What's driving the better outlook?

是什麼推動了更好的前景？

Is it better trajectory on 7-nanometer foundry or 10-nanometer logic or maybe even a lagging edge IoT?

在 7 納米晶圓代工或 10 納米邏輯甚至可能是落後的物聯網上，它是更好的軌跡嗎？

And are you guys starting to see any 5-nanometer foundry, 7-nanometer logic because we know that the design activity has already started to pick up here?

你們是否開始看到任何 5 納米代工廠、7 納米邏輯，因為我們知道設計活動已經開始在這裡？

Thanks, Harlan.

謝謝，哈蘭。

As we look at what's driving it, we said incremental improvement in foundry logic versus where we were a quarter ago.

當我們研究推動它的原因時，我們說代工邏輯與四分之一前相比有所改善。

It's offset by incremental weakness from a memory standpoint.

從內存的角度來看，它被增量的弱點所抵消。

No change to the overall WFE.

整體 WFE 沒有變化。

As we double-click on foundry logic, I don't think there's any one element that we can point to.

當我們雙擊代工邏輯時，我認為沒有任何一個元素可以指向。

We do see a diversification and a broadening of spend across mature nodes and leading-edge nodes.

我們確實看到成熟節點和前沿節點的支出多樣化和擴大。

We do see capacity adds beginning to take shape around 5-nanometers, more at 7-nanometers.

我們確實看到容量增加開始在 5 納米左右形成，更多的是在 7 納米。

Still too early to extrapolate a trend line from that, but we're encouraged by the strength and resilience of that end market and the environment we find ourselves in.

從中推斷趨勢線還為時過早，但我們對終端市場的實力和彈性以及我們所處的環境感到鼓舞。

But no one specific thing to point to.

但沒有具體的事情要指出。

Our next question will come from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri)。

Gary, I wanted to follow up on the WFE share comment.

加里，我想跟進 WFE 分享評論。

By my math, you sort of peaked at close to 22% in 2016, it was pretty flat in 2017, and you lost about 200 basis points last year.

根據我的計算，你在 2016 年達到了接近 22% 的峰值，在 2017 年相當平穩，去年你損失了大約 200 個基點。

In that same time, ASML gained about 400 basis points-worth of share, and it sounded in the prepared remarks like you're a little more optimistic about gaining WFE share next year, and I guess, that's in a year where it seems like the industry has to come up with at least a couple of billion dollars year-over-year for EUV.

與此同時，ASML 獲得了大約 400 個基點的份額，在準備好的評論中聽起來像是你對明年獲得 WFE 份額更加樂觀，我猜，那是在看起來像的一年該行業必須每年為 EUV 提供至少數十億美元的收入。

So I guess, I'm just trying to parse through.

所以我想，我只是想解析一下。

Are you more bullish because of maybe some risk to EUV?

您是否因為 EUV 的一些風險而更加看好？

Or are you bullish about the wafer capacity addition that you see on the NAND side next year?

或者您是否看好明年 NAND 方面的晶圓產能增加？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的問題。

I just -- again, when we look at the setup for 2019, we believe that the mix is definitely more favorable for us.

我只是 - 再次，當我們查看 2019 年的設置時，我們相信這種組合肯定對我們更有利。

Certainly, you look at the foundry logic business, the growth in IoT communication, automotive, power sensors, those different markets, that's going to be a bigger percentage in terms of 2019.

當然，你看看代工邏輯業務、物聯網通信、汽車、功率傳感器等不同市場的增長，在 2019 年將有更大的百分比。

We think we're set up pretty well there.

我們認為我們在那裡設置得很好。

The initial buys for 5-nanometer also, we think that we're in a better position there.

最初購買 5 納米也是如此，我們認為我們在那里處於更好的位置。

Again, if you look at the EUV adoption, certainly that's one way for our customers to drive their road maps.

同樣，如果您查看 EUV 的採用情況，那肯定是我們的客戶制定路線圖的一種方式。

But we talked about 5 different ways, and EUV is one of those 5. And you see customers driving improvements in power and performance, and that's all about materials' innovation.

但我們討論了 5 種不同的方式，而 EUV 就是這 5 種方式中的一種。您會看到客戶推動功率和性能的改進，而這一切都與材料的創新有關。

So we have new steps that are being adopted, both in transistor and interconnect.

因此，我們在晶體管和互連方面都採取了新的步驟。

That's going to be positive for us in terms of the leading-edge foundry and logic.

就領先的代工和邏輯而言，這對我們來說是積極的。

And then in memory, we also are gaining positions there.

然後在記憶中，我們也在那裡獲得了職位。

And longer term, we see that, that's a really good growth opportunity for us.

從長遠來看，我們看到，這對我們來說是一個非常好的增長機會。

If you go back over, let's say, a 5-year period of time, we were probably 14%, 15% of the memory spend, and now we're over 20% of the memory spend.

如果你回顧一下，比如說，5 年的時間，我們可能佔內存支出的 14%，15%，現在我們佔內存支出的 20% 以上。

And as customers are driving DRAM devices with new foundry-like processes in the periphery, that's great for us because that leverages our leading-edge products, the PVD implant, thermal, CMP.

隨著客戶在外圍採用類似代工的新工藝來驅動 DRAM 設備，這對我們非常有利，因為這利用了我們的領先產品 PVD 注入、熱、CMP。

All of those areas, we have very strong positions.

在所有這些領域，我們都有非常強大的立場。

And we're gaining new positions also in memory.

我們也在記憶中獲得了新的位置。

So again, overall, we like the setup much better in 2020.

因此，總的來說，我們更喜歡 2020 年的設置。

And longer term, longer term, again, all of these road maps are becoming more difficult.

從長遠來看，再一次，所有這些路線圖都變得更加困難。

Customers are adding all kinds of pluses to their technology nodes because, again, the scaling is getting much more difficult.

客戶正在向他們的技術節點添加各種優勢，因為再一次，擴展變得更加困難。

And at the foundation of all that is materials' innovation, Integrated Material Solutions, where we have engagements with all the major customers.

所有這一切的基礎是材料創新，即集成材料解決方案，我們與所有主要客戶都有合作。

It takes some time to drive those architectures and structures and materials into new devices, but we have tremendous traction there.

將這些架構、結構和材料引入新設備需要一些時間，但我們在這方面擁有巨大的吸引力。

We're certainly more optimistic in '19, and definitely, there's a lot of great things that come together for us in 2020 and beyond that will be positive for Applied.

我們在 19 年肯定會更加樂觀，而且在 2020 年及以後，我們肯定會遇到很多偉大的事情，這對 Applied 來說是積極的。

And Tim, I want to just add one more thing.

蒂姆，我想再補充一件事。

When Gary explained earlier, he said there were 2 reasons why the share dropped year-over-year.

當 Gary 早些時候解釋時，他說股價同比下降有兩個原因。

He said one was EUV, and that was coming in while our customers were in reuse mode.

他說一個是 EUV，它是在我們的客戶處於重複使用模式時進來的。

He said one other thing, he said there are other markets that we don't participate in that were very strong in 2018, specifically dielectric edge, and then a host of batch processes.

他說另一件事，他說我們沒有參與的其他市場在 2018 年非常強勁，特別是電介質邊緣，然後是一系列批處理。

So we do expect that EUV will continue to be good in '19, but we don't see as much of those other areas that we nominally compete in but in reality do not.

因此，我們確實預計 EUV 將在 19 年繼續保持良好狀態，但我們並沒有看到我們名義上競爭但實際上沒有的其他領域。

As a reminder, we're in conductor etch, not dielectric, right?

提醒一下，我們是在導體蝕刻，而不是電介質，對吧？

We're in single wafer processes, not batch processes.

我們採用單晶圓工藝，而不是批量工藝。

So it's that part of that 2-part equation that explains what you're describing.

因此，正是該兩部分方程式的那一部分解釋了您所描述的內容。

Our next question will come from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行美林的 Vivek Arya。

Gary, you mentioned TV flattish and mobile growing next year on the display side.

加里，你提到了明年電視平板電視和移動設備在顯示器方面的增長。

That sounds kind of like a mid-single-digit growth opportunity.

這聽起來有點像中個位數的增長機會。

I just wanted to make sure that's the right way to think about it from a '20 perspective.

我只是想確保這是從 20 世紀的角度思考問題的正確方式。

And longer term, do you think your display business kind of grows more in line with the adoption of OLED?

從長遠來看，您認為您的顯示器業務會隨著 OLED 的採用而增長嗎？

And what is the right way to conceptually think about growth in display?

從概念上考慮顯示增長的正確方法是什麼？

Well, I would say for next year, we certainly believe that the market is going to be stronger than it is this year.

好吧，我會說明年，我們當然相信市場會比今年更強勁。

We're not giving any estimates in terms of the magnitude of the growth into next year.

我們沒有就明年的增長幅度給出任何估計。

But longer term, we see this as a great opportunity.

但從長遠來看，我們認為這是一個很好的機會。

Before this year, for several years in a row, we were growing at 25% compound annual growth rate.

今年之前，我們連續幾年以 25% 的複合年增長率增長。

The -- just like in semi, those display technologies are very difficult.

- 就像在半成品中一樣，那些顯示技術非常困難。

If you look at mobile OLED, I mentioned that the customer base will be broadening out, and that will be great for Applied, it will also be great for adoption as there are more customers that can supply those types of devices.

如果你看一下移動 OLED，我提到客戶群將會擴大，這對 Applied 來說非常好，它也非常適合採用，因為有更多的客戶可以提供這些類型的設備。

And we look at the capital intensity is increasing.

而且我們看資本密集度正在增加。

As I said, in flex OLED, it goes up by about a factor of 2. And we're certainly working on very high-value problems for our customers in the display market that further expand our business.

正如我所說，在柔性 OLED 中，它上升了大約 2 倍。我們當然正在為顯示器市場的客戶解決非常高價值的問題，從而進一步擴大我們的業務。

So longer term, we think that this is a very good growth driver for the company.

所以從長遠來看，我們認為這對公司來說是一個非常好的增長動力。

And our next question will come from the line of Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自新街研究公司的 Pierre Ferragu。

So Dan, I understand you don't want to call the bottom, but I see like your semiconductor -- what you anticipate for next quarter to be kind of flattish sequentially.

所以丹，我知道你不想稱之為底部，但我看到你的半導體 - 你預計下個季度會依次持平。

And my question is really, if you get the run rate of this quarter, like the money that your client spends with you in DRAM, so that's about $400 million, $500 million in NAND, that kind of run rate, what's happening in the market?

我的問題是，如果你得到本季度的運行率，比如你的客戶花在 DRAM 上的錢，大約是 4 億美元，5 億美元的 NAND，這樣的運行率，市場上正在發生什麼?

What's happening in the installed base?

安裝基礎發生了什麼？

Does that mean 0 capacity additions?

這是否意味著 0 容量增加？

Does that mean capacity reduction?

這是否意味著容量減少？

So where are we in terms of capacity being added in the market at these run rates?

那麼，就以這些運行速度在市場上增加的容量而言，我們在哪裡？

Thanks, Pierre.

謝謝，皮埃爾。

As we take a look at the overall market and the willingness to call the bottom, that's as much a function of what we're seeing in the end market as it is just a recognition of the elevated risk environment we find ourselves in, and we just think it's prudent right now to set expectations in a way that reflect that environment.

當我們審視整體市場和触底意願時，這與我們在終端市場中看到的情況一樣重要，因為它只是對我們發現自己所處的高風險環境的認可，我們只是認為現在以反映該環境的方式設定期望是謹慎的。

And I just think you see that coming through in the way in which we're talking about the business.

而且我只是認為您會在我們談論業務的方式中看到這一點。

And again, it's only intended to be prudent in this environment.

再說一次，它只是為了在這種環境下謹慎行事。

As we take a look at both memory types, and we look at capacity additions, as we think about the investments going in today, the investments are more of a technology transition nature.

當我們查看這兩種內存類型並查看容量增加時，當我們考慮當今的投資時，這些投資更多地屬於技術轉型性質。

Technology transitions are fundamentally, as you know, about cost competitiveness of our customers going forward.

如您所知，技術轉型從根本上關乎我們客戶未來的成本競爭力。

And so as those markets recover, they're going to need to keep pace from a technology road map standpoint to be cost-competitive as those markets recover.

因此，隨著這些市場的複蘇，他們需要從技術路線圖的角度跟上步伐，以便在這些市場復甦時具有成本競爭力。

If we look at the aggregate capacity in each of those markets, we look at them as flat to down slightly in both of those markets.

如果我們查看每個市場的總容量，我們會認為它們在這兩個市場中持平或略有下降。

This is not a year for capacity adds.

這不是產能增加的一年。

What you see are some conversions going on.

你看到的是一些正在發生的轉換。

And when you convert, you tend to lose some capacity.

當你轉換時，你往往會失去一些容量。

So investors are acting in a very -- I mean, I'm sorry, the customers are acting in a very profit-minded, disciplined way to keep the supply/demand in balance in a difficult year.

所以投資者的行為非常 - 我的意思是，我很抱歉，客戶正在以一種非常注重利潤、自律的方式行事，以在困難的一年中保持供需平衡。

I think what that sets us up well for as we exit the year, we do think that our customers under-ship end market demand as they work down inventories in the channel, both their inventories as well as their customers' inventory, and that's a good setup going into 2020.

我認為當我們退出這一年時，這為我們奠定了良好的基礎，我們確實認為我們的客戶在減少渠道中的庫存（包括他們的庫存和客戶的庫存）時滿足終端市場需求，這是一個進入 2020 年的良好設置。

But in this year, we don't expect capacity additions in either of those 2 markets.

但在今年，我們預計這兩個市場中的任何一個都不會增加產能。

And our next question will come from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題將來自與 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I had one for Dan.

我有一個給丹。

Dan, I just had a question on the buybacks.

丹，我剛剛對回購有疑問。

It looks like your services business is pretty resilient and growing, so that alone can probably fund the dividend easily.

看起來您的服務業務非常有彈性並且正在增長，因此僅憑這一點就可以輕鬆地為股息提供資金。

And I understand the reluctance to call the bottom, but it looks like you are in a bottoming-out phase.

我理解不願觸底，但看起來你正處於觸底反彈階段。

So why wouldn't you be more aggressive with the buyback?

那麼，你為什麼不更積極地進行回購呢？

Or is it because you're seeing -- are you like keeping this dry powder for M&A for some attractive assets out there?

還是因為您看到了——您是否喜歡將這種干粉用於併購一些有吸引力的資產？

Or is there just a change in the methodology of how you think about buybacks?

還是只是您對回購的看法發生了變化？

Thanks, Krish.

謝謝，克里什。

I think the best way to think about this is not read too much in any one quarter in terms of what we do from a buyback.

我認為考慮這一點的最佳方式不是在任何一個季度都閱讀太多關於我們從回購中所做的事情。

I think you need to take a look at a longer-term trend line of what our company has done.

我認為你需要看看我們公司所做的事情的長期趨勢線。

We've always talked about our 3 priorities for capital allocation, and it's a consistent approach to capital allocation that hasn't changed over time.

我們一直在談論資本配置的 3 個優先事項，這是一種始終如一的資本配置方法，不會隨著時間的推移而改變。

First element is, is we're going to fully fund growth of this company that has an organic and inorganic component to it.

第一個要素是，我們是否要為這家具有有機和無機成分的公司的發展提供充分的資金。

The second priority will be to maintain a strong, flexible balance sheet.

第二個優先事項是保持強大、靈活的資產負債表。

And the third priority is to take the vast majority of the excess cash and give it back to shareholders.

第三個優先事項是將絕大多數多餘的現金返還給股東。

If you look at a 2-decade trend for the company, we're very close to 100% of excess cash has gone back to shareholders.

如果你看一下公司 20 年的趨勢，我們非常接近 100% 的超額現金已經返還給股東。

We've been big purchasers of our shares given what we see happening and unfolding in our end markets as a result of the data economy diversifying end market demand in our business.

由於數據經濟使我們業務中的終端市場需求多樣化，我們看到終端市場正在發生和發展，我們一直是我們股票的大買家。

We think that takes the semiconductor industry structurally larger.

我們認為這會使半導體行業在結構上更大。

By implication, that's going to take our industry structurally larger even off the levels we saw in 2018, and Applied will benefit in a very material way.

言下之意，這將使我們的行業在結構上變得更大，甚至比我們在 2018 年看到的水平還要大，而 Applied 將以非常物質的方式受益。

In the last 4 quarters alone, we've repurchased about 8% of the company; last 3 years, around 17%; and the last 5 years, just about 28% of the company.

僅在過去 4 個季度，我們就回購了公司約 8% 的股份；過去 3 年，約 17%；而過去 5 年，僅占公司的 28% 左右。

So I think we've been significant purchasers of our shares in light of what we see unfolding.

因此，鑑於我們所看到的情況，我認為我們一直是我們股票的重要購買者。

And we think a steady approach to this quarter in/quarter out isn't the right approach to take to drive long-term shareholder value.

我們認為對本季度/季度採取穩定的方法並不是推動長期股東價值的正確方法。

So I wouldn't read too much into any one quarter and just look at our track record over an extended period of time, which I think is quite strong.

因此，我不會對任何一個季度進行過多解讀，而只會查看我們在很長一段時間內的業績記錄，我認為這是非常強大的。

And our next question will come from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

I had a question.

我有一個問題。

Your comments upfront, you talked about NAND kind of stabilizing, and I guess, there are segments of NAND where that's true.

您在前面的評論，您談到了 NAND 的穩定性，我猜想，NAND 的某些部分確實如此。

But generally, your customers have sort of talked about margin -- margins continuing to come down in the back half.

但一般來說，你的客戶有點談論利潤率——後半部分的利潤率繼續下降。

I just want to make sure, I mean, when you're talking about NAND stabilization, that's not weighing heavily into your forecast.

我只是想確保，當您談論 NAND 穩定性時，這不會嚴重影響您的預測。

It seems like there's fairly dormant NAND spending in the second half.

下半年似乎有相當休眠的 NAND 支出。

But just as -- when you're talking -- when you see that stabilization, is that kind of upside to your -- the numbers that we're talking about here?

但是就像 - 當你在談論 - 當你看到穩定時，這對你的 - 我們在這裡談論的數字有好處嗎？

Or just how should we think about that?

或者我們應該怎麼想？

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

Let me share a little bit of our thinking, and hopefully, that will help give you insight into where we see the NAND correction cycle.

讓我分享一點我們的想法，希望這將有助於您深入了解我們看到 NAND 校正週期的位置。

If we were on this call a year ago, that was the first time we started to talk about a pullback from an investment standpoint of our customers, and it was still at a time when margins hadn't reached their peak.

如果我們在一年前參加這個電話會議，那是我們第一次從客戶的投資角度談論回調，當時利潤率還沒有達到頂峰。

And so I think it's the first time in the industry's history where you saw that disciplined behavior of our customers begin to pull back at a time when margins were still moving forward.

因此，我認為這是行業歷史上第一次看到我們客戶的紀律行為在利潤率仍在增長的時候開始退縮。

And I think it created some confusion.

我認為這造成了一些混亂。

And the reason I bring that data point up is, is I think the NAND industry is further along the correction cycle than the DRAM industry.

我提出這個數據點的原因是，我認為 NAND 行業比 DRAM 行業更接近於修正週期。

And in the prepared comments, we talked about inventory being off of their peaks but still at an elevated level.

在準備好的評論中，我們談到庫存已脫離峰值，但仍處於較高水平。

So when we talk about early signs of stabilization, I would say it's stabilization not in hindsight or in the past tense.

因此，當我們談論穩定的早期跡象時，我會說它不是事後諸葛亮或過去時態的穩定。

I think it's in the process of stabilizing, hasn't fully stabilized yet.

我認為它正處於穩定的過程中，還沒有完全穩定下來。

But we feel good that we're seeing those early signs, and we see NAND is further along in that correction cycle than DRAM.

但我們感覺很好，我們看到了這些早期跡象，我們看到 NAND 在修正週期中比 DRAM 走得更遠。

So we've got more work to do as an industry.

因此，作為一個行業，我們還有更多工作要做。

But again, as we roll the business forward off of these levels, we think we profile roughly flat for the rest of the year from a semi system standpoint.

但同樣，隨著我們將業務從這些水平上推開，我們認為從半系統的角度來看，我們在今年餘下的時間里大致持平。

And our next question will come from the line of Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Patrick Ho 和 Stifel。

Gary, maybe just as a follow-up to some of the commentary you said about foundry logic and Applied's positioning.

加里，也許只是你所說的關於鑄造邏輯和應用公司定位的一些評論的後續行動。

Are some of the gains on the market share driven by your growth segments like etch and deposition or are they across the board with some of your leadership process segments as well?

市場份額的某些增長是由蝕刻和沈積等增長領域推動的，還是與您的一些領導工藝領域一樣全面？

Patrick, let me give you -- thanks for the question, let me give you some color, maybe overall, in terms of how I see Applied.

帕特里克，讓我給你 - 謝謝你的問題，讓我給你一些顏色，也許是整體，就我如何看待應用而言。

And within that, I'll talk about the different products.

在此之內，我將討論不同的產品。

So when I look forward, I see a number of factors that can drive very strong performance for Applied.

因此，當我展望未來時，我看到了許多可以推動 Applied 表現強勁的因素。

As we've said before, in the semi market, we're at the biggest -- beginning of the biggest wave we've ever seen, this AI/big data wave.

正如我們之前所說，在半導體市場中，我們正處於最大的——我們所見過的最大浪潮的開始，即人工智能/大數據浪潮。

In the next 2 years, we could see this wave building momentum and creating a very strong semiconductor market.

在接下來的 2 年裡，我們可以看到這股浪潮正在形成勢頭，並創造出一個非常強大的半導體市場。

At the same time, as I talked about earlier, capital intensity is increasing in memory and foundry logic.

同時，正如我之前所說，內存和代工邏輯的資本密集度正在增加。

And in foundry logic, you see the end of classic Moore's law.

在代工邏輯中，您會看到經典摩爾定律的終結。

And as I talked about earlier, you see customers having 7, 7P, 7-plus, 6 popped up on the road map, some customers talking about many pluses.

正如我之前所說，您會看到路線圖上出現 7、7P、7+、6 的客戶，一些客戶談論很多優點。

Again, I think that's an indication that driving improvements in power, performance area and cost is getting harder and harder.

同樣，我認為這表明推動功率、性能區域和成本的改進變得越來越難。

So we certainly see that in both the memory business and in the foundry logic business.

所以我們當然在內存業務和代工邏輯業務中都看到了這一點。

And we've talked about this new path forward with 5 drivers.

我們已經用 5 位車手討論了這條新的前進道路。

We've had some of our peers talk about similar drivers and some customers talking about those drivers relative to how you're going to improve power performance area and cost.

我們的一些同行討論了類似的驅動程序，一些客戶談論了這些驅動程序，這些驅動程序與您將如何提高功率性能區域和成本有關。

And we're really, really in the beginning of this, but you can see evidence of this in terms of the customer behavior, how they're driving the devices.

我們真的，真的處於這一切的開始，但你可以從客戶行為、他們如何駕駛設備方面看到這一點的證據。

So that's a great setup for us.

所以這對我們來說是一個很好的設置。

If we look at our unit processes, we look at the Integrated Materials Solutions that we have like the 1,000x improvement in leakage current, it's really a great setup for us.

如果我們查看我們的單元流程，我們會查看集成材料解決方案，我們將漏電流提高 1,000 倍，這對我們來說確實是一個很棒的設置。

Let me go a little bit broader and talk about our display business.

讓我更廣泛地談談我們的顯示業務。

We've said our display market will pick up over the next 2 years.

我們已經說過我們的顯示器市場將在未來兩年內回升。

Capital intensity there is also increasing.

那裡的資本密集度也在增加。

Our service business is becoming an increasing part of the company.

我們的服務業務正在成為公司越來越重要的一部分。

We have the largest installed base for service.

我們擁有最大的服務安裝基礎。

Our subscription-type revenue is also growing very fast.

我們的訂閱類收入也在快速增長。

And if the semiconductor market strengthens over the next 2 years, this business can go back to double-digit growth for Applied.

如果半導體市場在未來 2 年走強，該業務可以恢復到應用材料公司的兩位數增長。

So you put the new products that we have that are targeted for the biggest problems our customers have in memory, scaling, the memory devices, addressing the leading-edge foundry and logic performance, power, area, cost, new segments like IoT, communication, automotive power, sensors.

所以你把我們的新產品針對我們的客戶在內存、縮放、內存設備方面遇到的最大問題，解決領先的代工和邏輯性能、功率、面積、成本、物聯網等新領域、通信、汽車電源、傳感器。

All of those things together, if you look out 2 years from now, you've got stronger markets, a stronger position, service still growing, a combination of factors that could be really great for overall performance for Applied.

所有這些因素加在一起，如果您從現在開始展望 2 年，您將擁有更強大的市場、更強大的地位、服務仍在增長，這些因素的組合可能對 Applied 的整體業績非常有利。

And our next question will come from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

我們的下一個問題將來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

All the good ones have been asked, but I have a couple of follow-ups.

所有好的都被問到了，但我有幾個跟進。

One for Gary.

一個給加里。

I just want to better understand how a greenfield fab would help with some of these initiatives that you have taken over the past 2 years versus the existing fabs that are basically being converted like there are fabs -- NAND fabs that are being converted from a 64-layer 3D NAND to 96.

我只是想更好地了解新建晶圓廠將如何幫助您在過去 2 年中採取的其中一些舉措，而不是像現有晶圓廠一樣基本上正在轉換的現有晶圓廠 - NAND 晶圓廠正在從 64層 3D NAND 到 96。

And there are greenfield fabs, the same for DRAM.

還有新建的晶圓廠，DRAM 也是如此。

So as these greenfield fabs at some time in the future are actually going to turn on again, would that create a bigger opportunity for you given all the R&Ds of the past?

因此，由於這些新建的晶圓廠在未來某個時候實際上會再次啟動，考慮到過去的所有研發，這是否會為您創造更大的機會？

Or is that going to be the same as a fab being converted?

或者這將與正在轉換的晶圓廠相同？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Yes.

是的。

I think the bigger -- so certainly, the greenfield fabs create a bigger opportunity for us, but I think that really the biggest factor for us is what technologies are enabling those future devices when they ramp those greenfield factories.

我認為更大——當然，新建工廠為我們創造了更大的機會，但我認為對我們來說真正最大的因素是，當這些新建工廠增加時，哪些技術正在支持這些未來的設備。

So if you look at DRAM, as I mentioned, DRAM, you have the periphery moving to more logic-like type structures.

因此，如果您查看 DRAM，正如我所提到的 DRAM，您的外圍設備將轉向更多類似邏輯的類型結構。

So similar to what we saw in 28-nanometer foundry, you see strong demand for PVD implant, thermal processing, CMP, DRAM.

與我們在 28 納米鑄造廠看到的情況類似，您會看到對 PVD 注入、熱處理、CMP、DRAM 的強勁需求。

You see capacitor formation, new structures.

你會看到電容器的形成，新的結構。

We have positive patterning inflections for Applied in memory, I/O layer formations, so many things within DRAM.

我們對應用在內存、I/O 層的形成以及 DRAM 中的許多事物中都有積極的圖案變化。

In 3D NAND, scaling is about multiple things, more layers, more tiers, focusing on layer thickness, lateral scaling.

在 3D NAND 中，縮放是關於多方面的，更多的層，更多的層，專注於層厚度，橫向縮放。

We're winning new etch applications in NAND.

我們在 NAND 中贏得了新的蝕刻應用。

And one of the things that is most important in scaling NAND is new materials, especially high selectivity hard mask, where we have very strong capability.

在 NAND 微縮中最重要的一件事是新材料，尤其是高選擇性硬掩模，我們在這方面有很強的能力。

We have a new hard mask material that increases etch selectivity by 50%, and we already see qualifications in future technology nodes.

我們有一種新的硬掩模材料，可以將蝕刻選擇性提高 50%，並且我們已經看到了未來技術節點的資格。

So a lot of those types of technologies, Mehdi, are ones that are enabling our memory customers.

所以很多這些類型的技術，Mehdi，都是為我們的內存客戶提供支持的技術。

We have similar types of technologies for foundry and logic.

我們有類似類型的代工和邏輯技術。

And then the other thing, again, I wanted to talk about that I mentioned before, are the Integrated Materials Solution, combining multiple technologies in the same platforms under vacuum.

然後另一件事，我想再次談談我之前提到的，是集成材料解決方案，在真空下在同一平台上結合多種技術。

And we see engagements with many of our large customers.

我們看到了與許多大客戶的合作。

It takes some time for those new structures to be integrated into a node, but if you think about customers announcing improvements in power and performance, that's a key part of their competitiveness.

將這些新結構集成到一個節點中需要一些時間，但如果您考慮到客戶宣佈在功率和性能方面的改進，這是他們競爭力的關鍵部分。

We have technologies that enable improvements in power and performance.

我們擁有能夠提高功率和性能的技術。

We have traction in there with many large customers.

我們在那裡吸引了許多大客戶。

And again, that will also fuel our growth over the future years.

同樣，這也將推動我們未來幾年的增長。

And just to build on a little bit of what Gary was talking about to add some dimension, Mehdi, to the greenfield opportunity over time.

並且只是在 Gary 所說的一點點的基礎上，隨著時間的推移為新建的機會增加一些維度，Mehdi。

We're currently, tracking 31 300-millimeter factories around the globe.

我們目前正在跟踪全球 31 300 毫米工廠。

There's only a couple of them that are in the very early stages of beginning to take equipment.

他們中只有幾個處於開始使用設備的早期階段。

And if we look at the aggregate WFE that those facilities represent, it's about almost $180 billion of WFE over time.

如果我們看一下這些設施所代表的 WFE 總量，隨著時間的推移，它的 WFE 約為 1800 億美元。

So our customers are preparing for something that we think takes our industry structurally larger and is going to benefit Applied Materials as these macro trends we're talking about play out over time.

因此，我們的客戶正在為我們認為會使我們的行業在結構上更大並且將使應用材料公司受益的事情做準備，因為我們正在談論的這些宏觀趨勢會隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。

So we're really encouraged by both the conversions and technology buys we see today as well as future greenfield build-outs over time.

因此，我們今天看到的轉換和技術購買以及未來隨著時間的推移新建的綠地建設都讓我們感到非常鼓舞。

Got it.

知道了。

And just a quick follow-up for you, Dan, and apologies if the topic has already come up.

丹，如果這個話題已經出現，請給你一個快速的跟進，並道歉。

What should we think of OpEx looking into the second half?

我們應該如何看待 OpEx 展望下半年？

So I think we want to guide one quarter at a time.

所以我認為我們想一次指導一個季度。

We'll talk about Q4 3 months from now.

我們將在 3 個月後討論第四季度。

What I did say in the Q&A just to help give you some perspective on it, Mehdi, is we expect to keep OpEx flat this year with where we ended up 2018.

我在問答中所說的只是為了幫助您對此有所了解，Mehdi，我們希望今年的運營支出與 2018 年的水平持平。

And I think between the 2 quarters we've printed, the one quarter we've guided, I think that gives you a sense of where the rest of the year is likely to unfold.

而且我認為在我們印刷的兩個季度之間，我們指導的一個季度，我認為這讓您了解今年剩餘時間可能會在哪裡展開。

Our last question will come from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Quinn Bolton 與 Needham & Company 的對話。

I just wanted to follow up on Dan's comments in the prepared script about the opportunity for field upgrade, retrofits and parts.

我只是想跟進 Dan 在準備好的腳本中關於現場升級、改造和零件機會的評論。

How much of that comes into the AGS business?

其中有多少進入了 AGS 業務？

How much of that drives the semiconductor systems?

其中有多少驅動了半導體系統？

And then I've got a quick follow-up.

然後我有一個快速跟進。

Yes.

是的。

Let me see.

讓我看看。

Let me just pull up some data so I'm going to give you the right perspective.

讓我提取一些數據，以便為您提供正確的觀點。

So if we look -- the vast majority of that number rolls in through AGS.

因此，如果我們看一下 - 這個數字中的絕大多數都是通過 AGS 獲得的。

Let's say, roughly maybe 20% of the number rolls through our Semiconductor Systems business, which includes [nonsystem] upgrades as well as 300-millimeter refurbs.

假設大約 20% 的數字來自我們的半導體系統業務，其中包括 [非系統] 升級以及 300 毫米翻新。

So it's roughly 80-20 give or take.

所以它大約是 80-20 的給予或接受。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just a quick follow-up on the -- with the recent escalation in the tariff uncertainties.

然後只是對最近關稅不確定性升級的快速跟進。

Again, have you done any -- taking a look at what might happen to cost of goods if we get tariffs on the next $325 billion of China imports, would that have a meaningful impact on cost?

再說一遍，你有沒有做過任何事情——看看如果我們對接下來 3250 億美元的中國進口商品徵收關稅，商品成本可能會發生什麼變化，這會對成本產生有意義的影響嗎？

Or do you think you're pretty well insulated from that event, should it happen?

還是您認為您與該事件完全隔離，應該發生嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the follow-up.

感謝您的跟進。

We feel pretty good about where we sit.

我們對自己坐的地方感覺很好。

If we look at everything that's been enacted to date and what's been discussed most recently, we think we've got plans in place to offset the impact so that the net impact of any of those tariffs becomes an immaterial impact to the company.

如果我們查看迄今為止頒布的所有內容以及最近討論的內容，我們認為我們已經制定了抵消影響的計劃，以便任何這些關稅的淨影響對公司產生非實質性影響。

Clearly, it's something we're going to watch very closely.

顯然，這是我們將密切關注的事情。

We'll continue to optimize our footprint and our operations and how we've geared our supply chain and logistics organization to make sure we continue to minimize the impact.

我們將繼續優化我們的足跡和運營，以及我們如何調整我們的供應鍊和物流組織，以確保我們繼續將影響降至最低。

But right now, given where we sit and what we know today, we think the net impact is going to be immaterial to the overall results of the company.

但現在，考慮到我們所處的位置和我們今天所知道的，我們認為淨影響對公司的整體業績將是無關緊要的。

Thanks, Quinn.

謝謝，奎因。

Dan, let me just kick it over to you.

丹，讓我把它踢給你。

Anything else you want to say before we close the call?

在我們結束通話之前您還有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，邁克。

Just a couple of quick points to close out the call.

只需幾個快速點即可結束通話。

First, we talked about it on the call.

首先，我們在電話會議上談到了它。

While I'm still not ready to call the bottom of the semiconductor cycle, I do believe we're seeing the early signs of stability, and that's something that I find encouraging.

雖然我還沒有準備好將半導體週期稱為底部，但我相信我們已經看到了穩定的早期跡象，這讓我感到鼓舞。

Second, I like our setup for 2020.

其次，我喜歡我們 2020 年的設置。

I believe off of these levels, WFE can grow into next year.

我相信在這些水平上，WFE 可以成長到明年。

I also think display can be higher, and we've talked about the great job the team is doing executing against recurring revenue in our services business.

我還認為展示率可以更高，我們已經談到了團隊在我們的服務業務中針對經常性收入所做的出色工作。

So I especially like the setup around Applied as we look into 2020.

因此，當我們展望 2020 年時，我特別喜歡圍繞 Applied 的設置。

Third, I believe the new bets we're making from a technology standpoint, Gary spent a lot of time talking about it on the call, I think they're going to pay off in a big way as the next wave of computing takes off.

第三，我相信我們從技術角度下的新賭注，加里在電話會議上花了很多時間談論它，我認為隨著下一波計算的興起，他們將獲得巨大回報.

I hope you join us at the AI Design Forum over the summer.

我希望你能在夏天加入我們的 AI 設計論壇。

We'll share with you a lot more of what we are doing during that conference.

我們將與您分享更多我們在那次會議期間所做的事情。

Lastly, over the next couple of weeks, Gary and I are going to be seeing many of you.

最後，在接下來的幾週內，加里和我將與你們中的許多人見面。

We're both going to travel to the Bernstein conference at the end of the month.

我們都將在月底前往伯恩斯坦會議。

And then, I will be in New York for the Cowen conference and also Europe for BNP.

然後，我將在紐約參加 Cowen 會議，並在歐洲參加 BNP。

With that, Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

有了這個，邁克，讓我們繼續並結束通話。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, Dan, and we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today.

謝謝，丹，我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。

A replay of the call will be available on our website by 5:00 p.m.

下午 5:00 將在我們的網站上重播電話會議。

Pacific Time.

太平洋時間。

And we'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

我們要感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation on today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude our program, and we may all disconnect.

這確實結束了我們的程序，我們可能都會斷開連接。

Everybody, have a wonderful day.

大家，有一個美好的一天。