應用材料 (AMAT) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎來到應用材料公司財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining Applied's First Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings Call, which is being recorded. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您加入應用材料公司 2020 財年第一季度財報電話會議，該電話會議正在錄製中。加入我的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Dickerson；和首席財務官丹·杜恩。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-K and 8-K filings with the SEC. Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到可能導致我們實際結果不同的風險和不確定性的影響。有關風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 最近提交給 SEC 的 10-K 和 8-K 表格中。今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的對賬幻燈片中可以找到對 GAAP 措施的對賬，這些幻燈片可在我們網站應用材料的 IR 頁面上找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給 Gary Dickerson。

Thanks, Mike. I'm pleased to report that earnings for our first fiscal quarter exceeded the top end of our guidance, reflecting outstanding execution across the company in a market environment that is strengthening. Based on our calendar year revenues, we believe we outperformed both the market and our direct peers in 2019. We entered 2020 with momentum, and the signals we see give us increased confidence that the years ahead will be very good for the industry and especially for Applied Materials. In today's call, I'll give you my perspective on how our markets are evolving and provide our near-term outlook. Then, I'll highlight the key components of our strategy to address the changing needs of our customers and drive sustainable, profitable growth for Applied Materials.

謝謝，邁克。我很高興地報告，我們第一財季的收益超過了我們指引的上限，這反映了在市場環境正在加強的情況下，整個公司的出色執行。根據我們日曆年的收入，我們相信我們在 2019 年的表現優於市場和我們的直接同行。我們以勢頭進入 2020 年，我們看到的信號使我們更加相信未來幾年對行業，尤其是對應用材料。在今天的電話會議中，我將就我們的市場如何發展發表我的看法，並提供我們的近期展望。然後，我將重點介紹我們戰略的關鍵組成部分，以解決客戶不斷變化的需求並推動應用材料公司實現可持續的盈利增長。

Before I get started, I'll take a minute to address the implications of the coronavirus outbreak. To direct a comprehensive response across all the regions where we operate, we quickly activated our business continuity teams. Our top priority is the health and safety of our employees and their families. We're also doing everything we can to provide our customers the support they need to minimize disruption to their business. In addition, the Applied Materials Foundation is sending medical equipment into Wuhan, and we've created a humanitarian response fund for our employees in China and the communities where they live and work.

在開始之前，我將花一點時間來談談冠狀病毒爆發的影響。為了在我們經營的所有地區進行全面響應，我們迅速啟動了我們的業務連續性團隊。我們的首要任務是員工及其家人的健康和安全。我們還竭盡全力為客戶提供所需的支持，以盡量減少對他們業務的干擾。此外，應用材料基金會正在向武漢運送醫療設備，我們為我們在中國的員工和他們生活和工作的社區設立了人道主義應急基金。

In terms of the business, our current assessment is that the overall impact for fiscal 2020 will be minimal. However, with travel and logistics restrictions, we do expect changes in the timing of revenues during the year. We are actively managing the situation in collaboration with our customers and suppliers.

就業務而言，我們目前的評估是，對 2020 財年的總體影響將是最小的。然而，由於旅行和物流的限制，我們確實預計今年的收入時間會發生變化。我們正在與我們的客戶和供應商合作，積極應對這種情況。

While we're making the necessary adjustments to our near-term plans, we are not taking our eye off the powerful trends that are driving the semiconductor industry forward and creating a structurally larger and less volatile market. At the low point of this recent down cycle in customer spending, which occurred in the second calendar quarter of 2019, the combined quarterly revenues of the top 5 semi equipment companies were only 17% lower than at the cycle's peak. In contrast during the industry cycles that took place between 2000 and 2013, peak-to-trough revenues for the same 5 companies combined dropped on average 44%.

雖然我們正在對我們的近期計劃進行必要的調整，但我們並沒有忽視推動半導體行業向前發展並創造結構上更大、波動性更小的市場的強大趨勢。在最近發生在 2019 年第二季度的客戶支出下降週期的低點，前 5 大半導體設備公司的總季度收入僅比周期峰值低 17%。相比之下，在 2000 年至 2013 年的行業周期中，這 5 家公司的峰谷收入加起來平均下降了 44%。

Another important metric we look at is equipment intensity or annual equipment spending as a percentage of annual semiconductor industry revenues. Between 1990 and 2014, this equipment intensity metric fluctuated between 17% and 6%. However, when we look at the most recent 5-year period, equipment intensity has been in a tight band of 10.5% to 12% with a mean of 11.5%. We believe this is a good estimate going forward and reflects the ever more complex technology challenges we're addressing and the increasing value we're delivering to the ecosystem. In addition to the higher growth and lower cyclicality we see in the market as a whole, Applied is demonstrating even lower volatility than our peers. The reasons for this include the breadth of our product portfolio and the balance we have across different device segments. Dan will provide more color on this topic in his section.

我們關注的另一個重要指標是設備強度或年度設備支出佔半導體行業年度收入的百分比。 1990 年至 2014 年間，該設備強度指標在 17% 至 6% 之間波動。然而，當我們查看最近的 5 年期間，設備強度一直處於 10.5% 至 12% 的狹窄區間，平均為 11.5%。我們相信這是一個很好的估計，反映了我們正在解決的越來越複雜的技術挑戰以及我們為生態系統提供的不斷增加的價值。除了我們在整個市場中看到的更高的增長和更低的周期性之外，Applied 的波動性甚至低於我們的同行。原因包括我們產品組合的廣度以及我們在不同設備領域的平衡。 Dan 將在他的部分提供更多關於這個主題的顏色。

Moving to our near-term outlook. We see robust foundry/logic investment continuing. There is a strong commitment on the part of these customers to advance the leading edge as they get ready for demand related to the rollout of 5G. At the same time, we're also seeing healthy spending for specialty nodes to support growing demand from the IoT, communications, automotive, power and image sensor market.

轉向我們的近期展望。我們看到強勁的代工/邏輯投資仍在繼續。這些客戶在為與推出 5G 相關的需求做好準備時，堅定地承諾推進領先優勢。與此同時，我們也看到了對專業節點的健康支出，以支持物聯網、通信、汽車、電源和圖像傳感器市場不斷增長的需求。

Progression in the memory market is consistent with the view we've shared over the past several quarters. NAND appears to be in the early stages of recovery with prices rising and inventory levels down to 4 to 5 weeks. That's compared to 8 to 10 weeks this time last year. We also see a good setup for DRAM to recover. Encouraging signs include supplier and end market inventories that are starting to get back to normal levels, and prices appear to have bottomed. These leading indicators bode well for a pickup in investment by memory customers later in the year.

內存市場的進展與我們在過去幾個季度分享的觀點一致。 NAND 似乎處於復甦的早期階段，價格上漲，庫存水平下降到 4 到 5 週。相比之下，去年這個時候需要 8 到 10 週。我們還看到 DRAM 恢復的良好設置。令人鼓舞的跡象包括供應商和終端市場庫存開始恢復正常水平，價格似乎已經觸底。這些領先指標預示著今年晚些時候內存客戶將增加投資。

Overall, we like the way the market is shaping up for 2020 and beyond. We believe that our semiconductor business can deliver strong double-digit growth this year and feel very good about our longer-term opportunities.

總體而言，我們喜歡市場在 2020 年及以後形成的方式。我們相信我們的半導體業務今年可以實現強勁的兩位數增長，並對我們的長期機會感到非常滿意。

In display, there are no major changes to the outlook we provided last quarter. We expect FY '20 revenues to be similar to FY '19 as the industry navigates the bottom of this spending cycle. We still believe that display is an attractive adjacent market for Applied that provides good long-term growth opportunities. The business remains solidly profitable even as we make the necessary investments to ensure that we have the right portfolio of products ready for when the market picks up.

在顯示中，我們上個季度提供的前景沒有重大變化。我們預計 20 財年的收入將與 19 財年相似，因為該行業正處於這一支出週期的底部。我們仍然認為，對於 Applied 而言，顯示器是一個有吸引力的相鄰市場，它提供了良好的長期增長機會。即使我們進行必要的投資以確保我們在市場回暖時準備好正確的產品組合，該業務仍保持穩定盈利。

Stepping back and looking at this year in its broader context, it's important to note that the overall electronics industry is in a period of expansion and diversification. Major new growth drivers, including IoT, big data and artificial intelligence, are layered on top of traditional demand for smartphones and PCs. As I look ahead, I strongly believe that the future will not be like the past. The emerging workloads that will shape the next era of computing require domain-specific approaches, new system architectures and new types of semiconductor devices. I believe that we need a new playbook for semiconductor design and manufacturing to deliver the power, performance and area cost improvements that will unlock the potential of AI and big data.

退後一步，從更廣泛的背景來看今年，重要的是要注意整個電子行業正處於擴張和多元化的時期。主要的新增長動力，包括物聯網、大數據和人工智能，都建立在對智能手機和個人電腦的傳統需求之上。展望未來，我堅信未來不會像過去一樣。將塑造下一個計算時代的新興工作負載需要特定領域的方法、新的系統架構和新型的半導體設備。我相信我們需要一本新的半導體設計和製造手冊，以提供功率、性能和麵積成本的改進，從而釋放人工智能和大數據的潛力。

At Applied, we've aligned our strategy and investments around this new playbook so that we can enable new system architectures, new devices and 3D structures the introduction of novel new materials, new advances in 2D geometric shrinks and new ways to connect chips together through advanced packaging. Applied has a unique portfolio of materials engineering capabilities and products to enable the new playbook. Getting these new technologies to market faster has never been more valuable, and this is a major emphasis across the company. For example, we're using advanced metrology sensors, data science and simulation to improve learning rates, speed up the transfer of new technologies from Applied's labs to customers' factories, and reduce the time it takes to optimize device performance, yield, output and cost. In addition, we have more engagement with a broader ecosystem than ever before, focused on accelerating innovation all the way from materials to systems.

在 Applied，我們圍繞這個新劇本調整了我們的戰略和投資，以便我們能夠啟用新的系統架構、新設備和 3D 結構、引入新的新材料、2D 幾何縮小的新進展以及通過以下方式將芯片連接在一起的新方法先進的封裝。 Applied 擁有獨特的材料工程能力和產品組合，以支持新的劇本。將這些新技術更快地推向市場從未像現在這樣有價值，這是整個公司的主要重點。例如，我們正在使用先進的計量傳感器、數據科學和模擬來提高學習率，加快新技術從 Applied 實驗室到客戶工廠的轉移，並縮短優化設備性能、產量、產量和成本。此外，我們比以往任何時候都更多地參與更廣泛的生態系統，專注於加速從材料到系統的創新。

Our strategy is yielding results for our customers and Applied. Calendar 2019 was a new record for our foundry/logic revenues, and the current leading edge node transition further grows our opportunity. For an equivalent number of wafer starts, our available market increases by more than 10%. We're also generating record revenue from specialty markets where customers build their technology upon trailing geometries. For these customers, the innovation road map is driven by materials innovation rather than geometric scaling. Strength in leading edge, combined with healthy investments in specialty nodes, means that several of our leadership businesses, including metal deposition and epi, are delivering record revenue.

我們的戰略是為我們的客戶和應用公司帶來成果。 2019 年日曆是我們的代工/邏輯收入的新記錄，當前的前沿節點轉換進一步增加了我們的機會。對於同等數量的晶圓啟動，我們的可用市場增加了 10% 以上。我們還從專業市場創造了創紀錄的收入，在這些市場中，客戶在跟踪幾何形狀上構建他們的技術。對於這些客戶而言，創新路線圖是由材料創新而非幾何縮放驅動的。領先優勢的實力，加上對專業節點的健康投資，意味著我們的一些領先業務，包括金屬沉積和外延，正在創造創紀錄的收入。

At the same time, we continue building momentum in areas of the market where we still have plenty of room to grow. In the quarter, we secured major application wins for critical edge steps at both foundry/logic and memory customers. Our process diagnostics and control business delivered record quarterly revenue driven by strong adoption of our new optical wafer inspection system and continued strength in our leading e-beam products.

與此同時，我們繼續在仍有很大增長空間的市場領域建立動力。在本季度，我們在代工廠/邏輯和內存客戶的關鍵邊緣步驟中獲得了重大應用勝利。由於我們新的光學晶圓檢測系統的大力採用以及我們領先的電子束產品的持續實力，我們的過程診斷和控制業務實現了創紀錄的季度收入。

We're also making great progress in packaging. As the industry introduces increasingly sophisticated packaging approaches, our strategy has been to focus on addressing the most critical process steps. As a result, we've been steadily gaining market share. Our packaging business delivered record revenues in 2019 while winning well over 50% of our available market.

我們在包裝方面也取得了很大進展。隨著行業引入越來越複雜的包裝方法，我們的戰略一直是專注於解決最關鍵的工藝步驟。因此，我們一直在穩步獲得市場份額。我們的包裝業務在 2019 年創造了創紀錄的收入，同時贏得了超過 50% 的可用市場。

Another important growth factor for the company is our service business. Equipment maintenance is an attractive recurring revenue stream for Applied. And in calendar 2019, we added more than 2,000 systems to our installed base. As I've talked about before, we are finding new ways to deliver value through data-enabled services that accelerate customers' fab ramps and optimize the device performance, yield, output and cost in high-volume manufacturing. As we do this, we're increasing the number of installed base systems covered by long-term maintenance agreements. In the past 12 months alone, we have grown the number of systems covered by these agreements by nearly 15%.

公司的另一個重要增長因素是我們的服務業務。設備維護是應用材料公司一個有吸引力的經常性收入來源。在 2019 年日曆中，我們為我們的安裝基礎增加了 2,000 多個系統。正如我之前談到的，我們正在尋找新的方法來通過數據支持的服務來提供價值，這些服務可以加速客戶的晶圓廠產能並優化大批量製造中的設備性能、產量、產量和成本。當我們這樣做時，我們正在增加長期維護協議涵蓋的已安裝基礎系統的數量。僅在過去 12 個月中，我們就將這些協議涵蓋的系統數量增加了近 15%。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, I will quickly summarize. While we're adapting our near-term plans in response to the coronavirus outbreak, our outlook for 2020 remains very positive. We believe we can drive strong double-digit growth in our semiconductor business this year and significantly outperform the market.

在我將電話交給 Dan 之前，我將快速總結一下。雖然我們正在調整近期計劃以應對冠狀病毒的爆發，但我們對 2020 年的展望仍然非常樂觀。我們相信，我們今年可以推動半導體業務實現兩位數的強勁增長，並顯著超越市場。

We also like the setup for 2021 and beyond. Our markets are better than ever with powerful new growth drivers still only in their early innings. Applied's opportunities have also never been better. We are uniquely positioned to enable the new playbook for semiconductor design and manufacturing while helping our customers accelerate innovation from materials to systems.

我們也喜歡 2021 年及以後的設置。我們的市場比以往任何時候都好，強大的新增長動力仍處於初期階段。 Applied 的機會也從未像現在這樣好。我們具有獨特的優勢，可以為半導體設計和製造提供新的劇本，同時幫助我們的客戶加速從材料到系統的創新。

And now I'll turn the call over to Dan.

現在我將把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gary. Applied Materials returned to year-over-year growth in Q1, with revenue up 11% and non-GAAP EPS up 21% versus the same period last year. Revenue and gross margin exceeded the midpoint of our guidance. And earnings were above the high end of our range. Our revenue performance was driven by semiconductor systems, which was up 24% year-over-year. We generated nearly $1 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter and returned close to $400 million to shareholders.

謝謝，加里。應用材料公司在第一季度恢復了同比增長，與去年同期相比，收入增長了 11%，非公認會計準則每股收益增長了 21%。收入和毛利率超過了我們指引的中點。收益高於我們範圍的高端。我們的收入表現受到半導體系統的推動，同比增長 24%。我們在本季度產生了近 10 億美元的經營現金流，並向股東返還了近 4 億美元。

Our business outlook calls for continued strength in Q2 and our second half. Our relative performance is especially strong. We outgrew the overall semi equipment market in calendar 2019, and we significantly outperformed our closest peers. Applied has made strong investments across our portfolio in recent years. And today, we are a larger and more resilient company that performs well in a variety of market conditions. One of Applied's unique attributes is our broad portfolio, which is more diversified across end markets and more balanced among semiconductor device types, including memory, leading edge and specialty nodes in logic and packaging. Our portfolio makes us more stable relative to our past and relative to our peers, the closest of which were 50% to 100% more volatile in the recent cycle. Today, our traditional strength in foundry/logic is apparent as we set new quarterly records for overall foundry/logic revenue as well as in metal deposition and process control systems sales. Our investments in memory have given us a balanced share profile, and this will enable us to continue to generate strong returns when spending recovers later this year.

我們的業務前景要求第二季度和下半年繼續走強。我們的相對錶現尤其強勁。我們在 2019 日曆年的增長超過了整個半導體設備市場，並且我們的表現明顯優於最接近的同行。近年來，Applied 在我們的投資組合中進行了大量投資。而今天，我們是一家規模更大、更有彈性的公司，在各種市場條件下都表現出色。 Applied 的獨特屬性之一是我們廣泛的產品組合，該產品組合在終端市場更加多樣化，並且在半導體設備類型之間更加平衡，包括內存、邏輯和封裝領域的前沿和專業節點。我們的投資組合使我們相對於過去和相對於我們的同行更加穩定，其中最接近的在最近的周期中波動性增加了 50% 到 100%。今天，我們在鑄造/邏輯方面的傳統優勢顯而易見，因為我們在整體鑄造/邏輯收入以及金屬沉積和過程控制系統銷售方面創造了新的季度記錄。我們在內存方面的投資為我們提供了平衡的份額，這將使我們能夠在今年晚些時候支出恢復時繼續產生強勁的回報。

A key pillar of our stability is our aftermarket business, which includes Applied Global Services and our 300-millimeter upgrades and refurbs. Our aftermarket revenue is a product of 3 drivers: installed base growth, the higher service intensity of new nodes, and our data-enabled service agreements. Our service agreements provide a higher return on investment for our customers and subscription-like recurring revenue for Applied. In Q1, AGS generated record revenue of nearly $1 billion. Our overall aftermarket business also set a new record in Q1 and has grown in every year since 2013.

我們穩定的一個關鍵支柱是我們的售後業務，其中包括應用全球服務和我們的 300 毫米升級和翻新。我們的售後市場收入是 3 個驅動因素的產物：安裝基數增長、新節點的更高服務強度以及我們的數據支持服務協議。我們的服務協議為我們的客戶提供更高的投資回報，並為 Applied 提供類似訂閱的經常性收入。第一季度，AGS 創造了近 10 億美元的創紀錄收入。我們的整體售後市場業務在第一季度也創下了新紀錄，並且自 2013 年以來每年都在增長。

Against this backdrop, we're pleased to be making further progress towards the acquisition of Kokusai Electric, which has an outstanding equipment business, a very large installed base and a highly talented management team. During the quarter, we received regulatory approvals from Japan and Korea. And we grew our cash position by over $350 million as we prepare for the transaction. As a reminder, upon close, we plan to prioritize our free cash flow towards repaying the term loan we're using to help finance the transaction. We expect to limit buybacks until we've repaid the loan.

在此背景下，我們很高興在收購國際電氣方面取得進一步進展，該公司擁有出色的設備業務、龐大的安裝基礎和高素質的管理團隊。本季度，我們獲得了日本和韓國的監管批准。在為交易做準備時，我們的現金頭寸增加了超過 3.5 億美元。提醒一下，在交易結束後，我們計劃將我們的自由現金流優先用於償還我們用來幫助為交易融資的定期貸款。我們希望在償還貸款之前限制回購。

Next, I'll comment on the near-term environment and provide our Q2 guidance. Since the middle of January, our business continuity team has been working around the clock, assessing the needs and capabilities of our employees, customers and suppliers. I'm impressed by the decisive action and compassion being demonstrated by our people across the globe. Our Q2 guidance ranges are wider than usual, and our revenue forecast reflects all of the risk factors we can see today.

接下來，我將評論近期環境並提供我們的第二季度指導。自 1 月中旬以來，我們的業務連續性團隊一直在夜以繼日地工作，評估我們的員工、客戶和供應商的需求和能力。我們全球人民所表現出的果斷行動和同情心給我留下了深刻的印象。我們的第二季度指導範圍比平時更寬，我們的收入預測反映了我們今天可以看到的所有風險因素。

In Q2, we expect our overall revenue to be $4.34 billion, plus or minus $200 million, which would be up by about 23% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP earnings to be $1.04 per share, plus or minus $0.06. The midpoint would be up nearly 50% year-over-year. Within the outlook, we expect semiconductor systems revenue to be around $3.05 billion, up by around 40% year-over-year. Our services revenue should be about $955 million. And display revenue should be around $310 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin of around 45.4%, which would be up nearly 2 points year-over-year. And non-GAAP OpEx should be around $820 million.

在第二季度，我們預計我們的總收入為 43.4 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元，同比增長約 23%。我們預計非 GAAP 收益為每股 1.04 美元，上下浮動 0.06 美元。中點將同比增長近 50%。在展望中，我們預計半導體系統收入約為 30.5 億美元，同比增長約 40%。我們的服務收入應約為 9.55 億美元。顯示收入應該在 3.1 億美元左右。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 45.4%，同比增長近 2 個百分點。非 GAAP 運營支出應該在 8.2 億美元左右。

Finally, I will give you some additional color on how our risk-adjusted Q2 guidance compares to strong underlying demand for our products and services. Absent the near-term risks, our revenue guidance would have been about $300 million higher at the midpoint or up about 30% year-over-year and AGS revenue would have exceeded $1 billion. While the situation remains fluid, we believe we can address the vast majority of our unmet Q2 demand in Q3 and Q4 and deliver strong growth for the year.

最後，我將就我們的風險調整後的第二季度指引與對我們產品和服務的強勁潛在需求進行比較，為您提供一些額外的顏色。如果沒有近期風險，我們的收入預期中點將增加約 3 億美元，或同比增長約 30%，AGS 收入將超過 10 億美元。儘管情況仍然不穩定，但我們相信我們可以在第三季度和第四季度解決絕大多數未滿足的第二季度需求，並在今年實現強勁增長。

In summary, we are seeing very strong demand for our products, solutions and services. We have a broad, diverse and balanced portfolio that is delivering strong relative performance and stability in a variety of market conditions. As Gary outlined, the semiconductor industry is enjoying a new wave of growth, and the equipment industry is growing along with our customers. For Applied's part, we're investing in new products and solutions that will accelerate the new playbook and position Applied Materials to deliver superior performance, stable growth and shareholder returns.

總之，我們看到對我們的產品、解決方案和服務的需求非常強勁。我們擁有廣泛、多樣化和平衡的投資組合，可在各種市場條件下提供強勁的相對錶現和穩定性。正如 Gary 所述，半導體行業正在迎來新的增長浪潮，設備行業與我們的客戶一起成長。就應用材料公司而言，我們正在投資新產品和解決方案，以加速新劇本的發展，並使應用材料公司能夠提供卓越的業績、穩定的增長和股東回報。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

現在邁克，讓我們開始問答吧。

Thanks, Dan. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，丹。 （操作員說明）操作員，讓我們開始吧。

And our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

Apologies for the noise in the background. I guess first question, can you speak to gross margin leverage as you look forward, particularly around an accelerating service business combined with -- on the tool side, where you are on mix-wise to leadership versus growth and some of the new products as they layer in? I would love to hear your thoughts around that.

為背景中的噪音道歉。我想第一個問題，你能否談談你展望的毛利率槓桿，特別是圍繞加速服務業務結合 - 在工具方面，你在混合方面是領導力與增長以及一些新產品作為他們分層？我很想听聽你對此的想法。

Thanks, C.J. As we look at gross margins, and I think it's important to look at the evolution of the business over time. We're a different business today. We're driving a significant amount of growth in foundry/logic, but we're also a more diversified business than we've been in the past. If you were to go back a handful of years, you would have seen us spike highly in the foundry business from a share perspective. And the other 3 device types were mid-teens. And today, we're a very balanced portfolio. And I think that served us really well in 2019, both from a revenue volatility standpoint significantly less than the peers in the industry. But also from a gross margin standpoint, the company has performed pretty well in the most recent downturn. As we go forward, foundry/logic is going to continue to be a strong market for the industry. The trend line on foundry/logic is up and to the right. Every quarter won't be a record, but we will see an upward trending market, less volatility and higher highs and higher lows.

謝謝，C.J. 當我們查看毛利率時，我認為隨著時間的推移查看業務的演變很重要。我們今天是不同的企業。我們正在推動代工/邏輯的大量增長，但我們的業務也比過去更加多元化。如果你回到幾年前，你會看到我們從份額的角度來看我們在代工業務中的飆升。其他 3 種設備類型均為青少年。今天，我們是一個非常平衡的投資組合。而且我認為這在 2019 年為我們提供了非常好的服務，無論從收入波動的角度來看，都遠低於業內同行。但同樣從毛利率的角度來看，該公司在最近的低迷時期表現相當不錯。隨著我們向前發展，代工/邏輯將繼續成為該行業的強大市場。代工/邏輯的趨勢線向上並向右。每個季度都不會創紀錄，但我們將看到市場呈上升趨勢，波動性較小，高點和低點越來越高。

Embedded within that strength in foundry/logic is growth in specialty nodes and technologies as edge devices proliferate. This is a great business for us, a strong driver of cash flow, strong driver of operating margins. You're also seeing us in the broad set of markets, drive businesses like etch over time. We are making significant share gains into the NAND market into -- followed by DRAM and then foundry/logic. And the company is performing really, really well, growing that market share. And we're going to continue to do that going forward. And so you see an evolution and profile change of the business. You also see our services business growing structurally larger. It's a great source of stable revenues, cash flows and operating margin for the business. And so we're a broader, bigger, more resilient business and it's going to change the profile of the business over time.

隨著邊緣設備的激增，在鑄造/邏輯領域的這種優勢中嵌入了專業節點和技術的增長。這對我們來說是一項偉大的業務，是現金流的強大推動力，也是營業利潤率的強大推動力。您還看到我們在廣泛的市場中，隨著時間的推移推動像 etch 這樣的業務。我們在 NAND 市場取得了顯著的份額增長——其次是 DRAM，然後是代工/邏輯。該公司的表現非常非常好，正在擴大市場份額。我們將繼續這樣做。因此，您會看到業務的演變和形像變化。您還會看到我們的服務業務在結構上不斷擴大。它是業務穩定收入、現金流和營業利潤率的重要來源。所以我們是一個更廣泛、更大、更有彈性的企業，隨著時間的推移，它會改變企業的形象。

As you look at gross margin for the rest of this year, our semi systems business on a half-over-half progression looks fairly linear. And then you see a growing services business into the back half of the year and a growing display business into the back half of the year. And all 3 of those business look to -- look positioned to grow well into 2021. And so where we're guiding Q2, we expect to be around those levels for the rest of 2020 against this mix profile as we see into the back half of the year. Are we ever satisfied with gross margins as they exist today? No. Are we looking to continually optimize the performance of this company and drive as much value for our shareholders? Absolutely. And we're going to continue to drive as hard as possible at delivering that value. But I think it gives you a good sense of where gross margin is going to go for the rest of this year and some of the drivers of our business that deliver that result.

當您查看今年剩餘時間的毛利率時，我們的半系統業務在一半以上的進展中看起來相當線性。然後你會看到今年下半年服務業務增長，下半年顯示業務增長。所有這三個業務都有望在 2021 年實現良好增長。因此，在我們指導第二季度的情況下，我們預計在 2020 年剩餘時間裡，與我們看到的後半部分的混合情況相比，這些水平將保持在這些水平附近年。我們是否對今天存在的毛利率感到滿意？不。我們是否希望不斷優化這家公司的業績並為我們的股東創造盡可能多的價值？絕對地。我們將繼續盡可能努力地實現這一價值。但我認為它可以讓您很好地了解今年剩餘時間的毛利率將走向何方，以及實現這一結果的我們業務的一些驅動因素。

Very helpful. I guess as a quick follow-up. Can you speak to, I guess, the improved visibility that you have to memory? And kind of what are the guideposts that gives you the confidence on the second half hand off from foundry over to memory to sustain the growth through the end of the next year?

非常有幫助。我想作為一個快速跟進。我猜你能談談你必須記住的提高的能見度嗎？什麼樣的路標讓你有信心在下半年從代工廠轉移到內存，以維持到明年年底的增長？

Thanks, C.J. I think the best way I describe the profile and shape of the business in 2020, we're going to continue to see strength in foundry/logic throughout the year. And we're seeing early signs of memory recovery today. I think ultimately what happens in 2020 is really going to depend on the magnitude of the memory recovery later in the year. We posted a really strong fiscal Q1. Our guiding to fiscal Q2 we see as very strong. And we see that strength continuing into the back part of the year. Again, we're going to be relatively balanced half-over-half in our systems business. And the ultimate shape of that systems business and strength in the back part of the calendar year is going to be a function of what we've been saying for a couple of quarters now, which is it's going to depend on the magnitude of the memory recovery later in the year. But right now, we feel really good given what we see, fairly balanced half-over-half from a semi systems standpoint. And I think there's an opportunity to do better in our fiscal Q4 and our fiscal Q1 as the memory recovery begins to accelerate.

謝謝，C.J. 我認為我描述 2020 年業務概況和形態的最佳方式是，我們將在全年繼續看到代工/邏輯的實力。我們今天看到了記憶恢復的早期跡象。我認為最終在 2020 年發生的事情實際上將取決於今年晚些時候內存恢復的幅度。我們發布了非常強勁的第一財季。我們認為我們對第二財季的指導非常強勁。我們看到這種力量持續到今年下半年。同樣，我們將在我們的系統業務中保持相對平衡的一半以上。該系統業務的最終形態和今年下半年的實力將取決於我們幾個季度以來一直在說的內容，這將取決於內存的大小年後恢復。但是現在，鑑於我們所看到的，我們感覺非常好，從半系統的角度來看，相當平衡的一半。而且我認為隨著內存恢復開始加速，我們的第四財季和第一財季有機會做得更好。

Yes, C.J., this is Gary. I'll add a little bit more color. Certainly, what we see for the year is foundry/logic, NAND, DRAM pretty balanced. And relative to the memory recovery and timing, we talked about the supply and demand, the inventory levels on the prepared remarks, and then obviously we also have demand signals coming from our customers. So that's really what is driving our comments relative to the way the year is going to shape out and also the balance in all of those different segments.

是的，C.J.，這是加里。我會添加更多的顏色。當然，我們今年看到的是代工/邏輯、NAND、DRAM 相當平衡。關於內存恢復和時機，我們在準備好的備註上談到了供需，庫存水平，然後顯然我們也有來自客戶的需求信號。因此，這確實是推動我們對今年的發展方式以及所有這些不同部分的平衡發表評論的原因。

Thanks, C.J.

謝謝，C.J.

Our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Good job on results and guidance. I have a question on display business, flattish outlook, not super exciting this year. Gary, does this make you look at some of the disruptive products in the R&D pipeline, like the [evaporation] or the inkjet tools differently? And if you can share the long-term view on display market.

在結果和指導方面做得很好。我有一個關於顯示器業務的問題，前景平淡，今年不是特別令人興奮。加里，這是否讓您以不同的方式看待研發管道中的一些顛覆性產品，例如 [蒸發] 或噴墨工具？如果你能分享對顯示器市場的長期看法。

So display, we still see as a very attractive adjacent market for the company. If you look at the growth that we've seen over the last few years, it's up significantly. I think we're around $0.5 billion. The business was up over $2 billion, down a little bit this year, but still a very, very attractive market. And certainly our near-term guidance is impacted also because of the coronavirus. Some of our customers are in areas that are impacted. And so that reduced our guidance in terms of Q2. But as Dan said, we see the second half of the year being very positive. And we also -- if you think about visual experiences and the way they differentiate different mobile devices or all of the trillion connected devices that will be happening -- will be growing over the next several years, we see that, that market is going to continue to grow. So 2021, we certainly see the business being up a fair amount over what we see in 2020. The capital intensity is rising as new technologies are adopted. So we see a good opportunity in our core business. And certainly just like we do in semi, we're very focused on enabling customer road maps and enabling new structures, new materials for our customers. So we have those investments that we're also making in terms of display. We're making good progress on those -- on the pipeline of those new opportunities. We're not going to announce anything here on the call today, but we're still very optimistic overall about the business and also those new opportunities.

所以顯示，我們仍然認為對公司來說是一個非常有吸引力的相鄰市場。如果你看一下我們在過去幾年中看到的增長，就會顯著增長。我認為我們大約有 5 億美元。該業務增長了超過 20 億美元，今年略有下降，但仍然是一個非常非常有吸引力的市場。當然，我們的近期指導也受到冠狀病毒的影響。我們的一些客戶位於受影響的地區。因此，這減少了我們對第二季度的指導。但正如丹所說，我們認為下半年非常積極。而且，如果您考慮視覺體驗以及它們區分不同移動設備或將發生的所有數万億連接設備的方式，我們還將在未來幾年內增長，我們看到，該市場將繼續增長。因此，到 2021 年，我們肯定會看到該業務比我們在 2020 年看到的增長了很多。隨著新技術的採用，資本密集度正在上升。因此，我們在核心業務中看到了一個很好的機會。當然，就像我們在半成品中所做的那樣，我們非常專注於為客戶提供路線圖並為我們的客戶提供新結構、新材料。因此，我們在展示方面也進行了投資。我們在這些方面取得了良好進展 - 在這些新機會的管道上。我們今天不會在電話會議上宣布任何內容，但我們對業務和這些新機遇總體上仍然非常樂觀。

Great. A quick one for Dan. Dan, on OpEx, I know you don't like to peg OpEx to a ratio. How should we think about the spending for the rest of the year?

偉大的。丹的一個快速的。丹，關於運營支出，我知道您不喜歡將運營支出與比率掛鉤。我們應該如何考慮今年剩餘時間的支出？

Yes, I think in the current environment, $820 million a quarter feels like about the right level. You'll obviously see us continue to drive discipline into our spend. I think you've seen that over time. Over the last handful of years, operating leverage has delivered some pretty significant reductions of OpEx as a percent of sales. And right now, R&D as a percent of OpEx is at an all-time high for the company. So I think the company is being very disciplined from a discretionary spend standpoint and investing right amount of money to capture the significant opportunities we see in front of us. But we'll continue to monitor those opportunities and guide one quarter at a time, but this level feels about right.

是的，我認為在當前環境下，每季度 8.2 億美元感覺是合適的水平。您顯然會看到我們繼續將紀律納入我們的支出。我想你已經看到了隨著時間的推移。在過去的幾年裡，運營槓桿使運營支出佔銷售額的百分比顯著降低。目前，研發佔運營支出的百分比對公司來說處於歷史最高水平。因此，我認為從可自由支配支出的角度來看，該公司非常自律，並投入適量的資金來抓住我們看到的重大機遇。但我們將繼續監控這些機會並一次指導一個季度，但這個水平感覺是正確的。

Thanks, Atif.

謝謝，阿提夫。

Yes, I guess I would add one thing to that. I think we're not emotional over the investments we're making. We make investments where we think we can have -- drive shareholder value. So that's basically the way we look at this. We have -- we do have a point of view. I think as a leader, you need to have a point of view and courage in terms of how you drive your business. We believe that this business is going to be fundamentally bigger based on AI, big data, IoT, layering on top of mobile, social media and PCs. So we see that business is going to be larger. And the new playbook that I talked about in the prepared remarks for AI and big data is absolutely essential as Moore's Law -- the classic Moore's Law is slowing. So we see tremendous opportunities. Applied is in the best position if you look at the 5 aspects of that new playbook, and we're going to make those investments. And as I said earlier, 2021 shapes up really well for us. Many different aspects come together, and we definitely see great growth opportunities going forward. But we also are not emotional about how we make those investments, so we're not married to anything.

是的，我想我會添加一件事。我認為我們對我們所做的投資並不情緒化。我們在我們認為可以擁有的地方進行投資——推動股東價值。所以這基本上就是我們看待這個問題的方式。我們有——我們確實有自己的觀點。我認為作為領導者，您需要在如何推動業務方面有自己的觀點和勇氣。我們相信，基於人工智能、大數據、物聯網，在移動、社交媒體和個人電腦之上，這項業務將從根本上變得更大。因此，我們看到業務將變得更大。我在為 AI 和大數據準備的評論中談到的新劇本作為摩爾定律絕對必不可少——經典的摩爾定律正在放緩。所以我們看到了巨大的機會。如果您查看該新劇本的 5 個方面，應用程序處於最佳位置，我們將進行這些投資。正如我之前所說，2021 年對我們來說非常好。許多不同的方面融合在一起，我們肯定會看到巨大的增長機會。但我們也不會對我們如何進行這些投資感到情緒化，所以我們沒有嫁給任何人。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Congratulations on the solid results. Gary, you've given us a lot of sort of qualitative guidance on semi cap equipment spending for this year. I'm wondering if you can give us a sense of what you think the overall WFE market grows in calendar year ‘20. But perhaps more importantly, how important is China in your mind to that growth? And can you help kind of profile the Chinese spend between sort of memory, foundry/logic? I've got to imagine a lot of the trailing edge logic stuff you were talking about in your prepared comments is situated in China, but how do we think about that?

祝賀你取得了堅實的成果。加里，你給了我們很多關於今年半帽設備支出的定性指導。我想知道您是否可以讓我們了解您認為整個 WFE 市場在 20 日曆年的增長情況。但也許更重要的是，在您看來，中國對這種增長有多重要？你能幫助介紹一下中國人在內存、代工/邏輯之間的花費嗎？我不得不想像你在準備好的評論中談到的很多後緣邏輯的東西都位於中國，但我們如何看待呢？

Yes. Thanks, John. This is Dan. I'll jump in and take that. So let's break it up into pieces. Let's first talk about WFE in 2020 and the growth rate over '19 and then I'll come back and talk a little bit about China and what we see in that market embedded in that overall growth rate.

是的。謝謝，約翰。這是丹。我會跳進去接受它。所以讓我們把它分成幾塊。讓我們先談談 2020 年的 WFE 和 19 年的增長率，然後我會回過頭來談談中國以及我們在該市場中看到的嵌入總體增長率的情況。

So we think 2020 is going to be a really strong year for the industry. We feel good about that. The ultimate question around growth rate is a function of what you use as a starting reference point for 2019. So I'm going to break this up piece by piece. Hopefully, I can shed some light and be helpful to clear up, I think, some of the confusion that exists in the market. So what's important is, is we establish a reference point for 2019. And then we talk about growth off of that.

因此，我們認為 2020 年對於該行業來說將是非常強勁的一年。我們對此感覺良好。關於增長率的終極問題是你使用什麼作為 2019 年的起始參考點的函數。所以我將逐個分解。希望我能闡明一些觀點，並有助於澄清，我認為，市場中存在的一些困惑。所以重要的是，我們是否為 2019 年建立了一個參考點。然後我們討論由此而來的增長。

So we know the number for 2019 WFE. It's not mid-40s. I think one advantage we have is we've got a very broad portfolio, and we've got insight into all the different device types. And that gives us some unique insights in terms of market sizing. So let me share with you what we're seeing, and hopefully we can help out.

所以我們知道 2019 年 WFE 的數字。這不是40年代中期。我認為我們擁有的一個優勢是我們擁有非常廣泛的產品組合，並且我們深入了解了所有不同的設備類型。這讓我們在市場規模方面有了一些獨特的見解。因此，讓我與您分享我們所看到的，希望我們能提供幫助。

2018 was 56 billion. That's according to Gartner. It's a good number. It's validated by a third party. So 2018 was 56 billion. Off of that number, we see 2019 as down 10% to 12%, and that's the baseline we're using for 2020 growth. We see 2020 as a market up 10%, 15% based on everything we see and likely at the high end of that range, given the conversations we're having with customers.

2018年是560億。這是根據 Gartner 的說法。這是一個很好的數字。它由第三方驗證。所以 2018 年是 560 億。從這個數字來看，我們認為 2019 年將下降 10% 至 12%，這是我們用於 2020 年增長的基準。鑑於我們與客戶的對話，我們認為 2020 年市場將增長 10%，基於我們所看到的一切，並且可能在該範圍的高端增長 15%。

So while it's too early to know 2020 with precision, 2019 is very clear as a baseline. So hopefully now the baseline for 2019 is clear. Off of that baseline, we're likely up 15%. We expect to significantly outgrow the market with our semi systems business, and it's not one device type.

因此，雖然現在準確了解 2020 年還為時過早，但 2019 年作為基線非常明確。所以希望現在 2019 年的基線很明確。在該基線之外，我們可能會上漲 15%。我們預計我們的半系統業務將大大超過市場，而且它不是一種設備類型。

Coming to China embedded in that outlook. As we think about 2019 and where that ended, we see that market as about $6.5 billion, and we see growth off of that market of about $2 billion to $3 billion. Embedded within that if you take a look at that $2 billion to $3 billion, I would say 1/3 of it is 200-millimeter trailing node foundry/logic, 2/3 of it is 300-millimeter business. Of the 2/3 of its 300-millimeter business, it's roughly evenly split between trailing node foundry/logic and memory. And there's balance within the memory profile. And so I think that gives you a sense of what we're thinking for the China market.

來到中國就嵌入了這種前景。當我們考慮 2019 年及其結束時，我們認為該市場約為 65 億美元，我們看到該市場的增長約為 20 億至 30 億美元。如果你看一下這 20 億到 30 億美元，我會說其中 1/3 是 200 毫米尾隨節點代工廠/邏輯，其中 2/3 是 300 毫米業務。在其 300 毫米業務的 2/3 中，它大致平均分配在尾隨節點代工廠/邏輯和內存之間。並且內存配置文件中存在平衡。所以我認為這讓你了解我們對中國市場的看法。

And if I were to take a step back and distill down what we're seeing, we see consistent, steady ecosystem building, investments in technology road maps with modest capacity additions. And even if we look at the $2 billion to $3 billion of incremental spend that we're seeing in China and -- domestic China, and we take a look at what it costs to build a new memory factory, $7 billion to $8 billion, or a new foundry/logic factory of $15 billion to $18 billion, even embedded within that $2 billion to $3 billion of growth, it's modest capacity additions. And part of that spend is 200-millimeter. Part of it is 300-millimeter with diversification across device types. Hopefully, that helps shed some light on both the overall WFE market, John, as well as what we're seeing in China.

如果我退後一步，提煉我們所看到的，我們會看到一致、穩定的生態系統建設，對技術路線圖的投資以及適度的容量增加。即使我們看看我們在中國和中國國內看到的 20 億到 30 億美元的增量支出，我們看看建造一個新的內存工廠的成本，70 億到 80 億美元，或者一個 150 億到 180 億美元的新代工廠/邏輯工廠，即使在這 20 億到 30 億美元的增長中，它只是適度的產能增加。其中一部分花費是 200 毫米。其中一部分是 300 毫米，具有跨設備類型的多樣化。希望這有助於了解整個 WFE 市場，約翰，以及我們在中國看到的情況。

No, that's great color. And then quickly as my follow-up, I want to make sure I heard you correctly. I think you said in the prepared comments that for the full fiscal year '20, you expect flat panel to be roughly flattish year-over-year, which would kind of imply a second half run rate of close to $1 billion, if not slightly over. I'm just kind of curious why you're confident about that. Is it mainly because the 300 million cushion you have in the April guidance for the coronavirus is mostly coming out of flat panel? Or am I thinking about the math right on that?

不，這顏色很好。然後很快作為我的後續行動，我想確保我沒聽錯。我認為您在準備好的評論中說過，對於 20 財年，您預計平板與去年同期相比大致持平，這意味著下半年的運行率接近 10 億美元，如果不是略微的話超過。我只是有點好奇你為什麼對此有信心。主要是因為您在 4 月份的冠狀病毒指南中擁有的 3 億緩衝墊主要來自平板顯示器嗎？還是我正在考慮正確的數學？

Yes, so let me start with the math. You are thinking about the math correctly. We've had a point of view now for a couple of quarters that revenue in 2020 in the display business is going to be similar to what we saw in 2019. Everything we see in the market today increases the confidence we have in terms of that outlook, so no change to the full year guidance.

是的，所以讓我從數學開始。您正在正確地考慮數學。幾個季度以來，我們一直認為 2020 年顯示業務的收入將與 2019 年相似。我們今天在市場上看到的一切都增加了我們對此的信心展望，因此全年指引沒有變化。

As we look at the risks we've assessed as part of the coronavirus, we think we're taking a -- well, first of all, we think risk is temporary, and we think there is no change to our full year outlook, fiscal year outlook as a result of that. And so we think we're being prudent in derisking our guide by about 300 million, and we see recovery of those revenues in Q3, Q4 as we unpack the 300 million across our reporting segments. We talked about services would have been our first billion-dollar quarter, but we've derisked it based on the virus. In terms of rank order of the 300 million, first, most impacted is our semi systems business, followed by our display business, followed by our service business.

當我們審視作為冠狀病毒一部分評估的風險時，我們認為我們正在採取——嗯，首先，我們認為風險是暫時的，我們認為我們的全年展望沒有變化，財年展望因此。因此，我們認為我們在將我們的指南降低約 3 億美元時是謹慎的，我們看到這些收入在第三季度和第四季度恢復，因為我們在我們的報告部門中打開了 3 億美元。我們談到服務將是我們的第一個十億美元的季度，但我們基於病毒取消了它的風險。從3億的排名來看，首先受影響最大的是我們的半導體系統業務，其次是我們的顯示業務，其次是我們的服務業務。

So if you put the pieces together without being point specific on any one of those, I think you get a sense of how much we've derisked our services business. Display will be incrementally more than that. And semi systems will be incrementally more than that. The sum of those 3 will equal 300 million. Our thesis around display being -- or I'm sorry, TVs being a recovery -- going through a digestion period in the market. You'll see recovery of the handset market. That framing of the profile of spend in display still holds. We see both markets looking good into 2021, and we think we return to nice growth profile in the back part of the year and into 2021.

因此，如果您將各個部分放在一起而沒有具體說明其中任何一個，我想您會了解我們在多大程度上降低了我們的服務業務的風險。顯示將逐漸增加。半系統將逐漸增加。這三個的總和將等於 3 億。我們關於顯示器的論點——或者我很抱歉，電視正在復蘇——正在經歷市場消化期。你會看到手機市場的複蘇。展示消費概況的框架仍然有效。我們認為這兩個市場在 2021 年看起來都不錯，我們認為我們會在今年下半年和 2021 年恢復良好的增長態勢。

Great color. Congratulations again, guys.

很棒的顏色。再次恭喜各位。

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

And Dan, again, thanks for the terrific color on all the industry stuff. Two-part question, number one is based on your guidance of roughly 3 billion semis and around this range, maybe plus or minus 200 million for the rest of fiscal '20, it looks like when I look at your last cyclical peak in April 2018, you guys did about 3 billion, and then the sales trailed off. I understand that the SSG now with semi systems, there's probably some shift in numbers, but overall, it's like you're consistent this $3 billion sales number for the rest of the fiscal year. I'm kind of curious from your vantage point, how much of this growth versus the prior peak number was the capital intensity going up versus AMAT's specific share gains?

丹，再次感謝所有行業產品的出色色彩。由兩部分組成的問題，第一個是基於您對大約 30 億半成品的指導，在這個範圍內，在 20 財年的剩餘時間裡可能是正負 2 億，看起來就像當我看到您在 2018 年 4 月的最後一個週期性峰值時，你們做了大約30億，然後銷售額下降了。據我了解，SSG 現在採用半系統，數字可能會發生一些變化，但總的來說，這就像你在本財年剩餘時間裡保持 30 億美元的銷售數字一樣。從您的角度來看，我有點好奇，與之前的峰值相比，資本密集度上升與 AMAT 的特定股票收益相比有多少？

And then the second quick housekeeping question, on your color on China if I remember right, I think you said 200-millimeter is going to be 1/3 of your number, which is about $3 billion for China WFE. I'm kind of surprised it's that high, given the fact that last year if I remember right, China 200-millimeter was only 0.5 billion. Why is it jumping up so much this year?

然後是第二個簡單的內務問題，如果我沒記錯的話，關於你對中國的看法，我想你說 200 毫米將是你數字的 1/3，這對中國 WFE 來說約為 30 億美元。我有點驚訝它這麼高，因為去年如果我沒記錯的話，中國 200 毫米只有 5 億。為什麼今年漲了這麼多？

Yes. Thanks, Krish. So taking the second question first, we've been talking about specialty nodes. We've been talking about trailing node geometries. We've been talking about billions of edge devices and intelligence on the edge and sensor technologies that are supporting the build-out of the Internet of Things. And we see trailing node geometries as one place that China can, in the near term, play a strong role in helping to build out their ecosystem in a disciplined way. And so it fits in with the framing that we've been talking about technology development, ecosystem development and disciplined investments to support that ecosystem from a capacity standpoint. And so it's very consistent from a framing standpoint.

是的。謝謝，克里什。所以首先回答第二個問題，我們一直在談論專業節點。我們一直在談論尾隨節點幾何。我們一直在談論支持物聯網構建的數十億邊緣設備和邊緣智能以及傳感器技術。我們將尾隨節點幾何視為中國在短期內可以在幫助以有紀律的方式建立其生態系統方面發揮重要作用的一個地方。因此，它符合我們一直在談論的技術開發、生態系統開發和規範投資的框架，以從容量的角度支持該生態系統。因此，從框架的角度來看，它是非常一致的。

Yes, I think on the -- maybe I can add something on this part of the question. The -- if you look at this market, IoT, communication, auto, power devices, sensors, it has a very, very high growth rate. And innovation is driven by materials innovation. So 2018 was the first year machines generated more data than people. In the next 5 years, the forecast are the machines will generate 10x more data than people. And when you go to CES, you see everything getting smarter. So this market is a big market.

是的，我認為——也許我可以在這部分問題上添加一些內容。 - 如果你看看這個市場，物聯網、通信、汽車、電力設備、傳感器，它的增長率非常非常高。創新是由材料創新驅動的。因此，2018 年是機器產生的數據超過人的第一年。在接下來的 5 年中，預測機器生成的數據將是人類的 10 倍。當你參加 CES 時，你會看到一切都變得更加智能。所以這個市場是一個大市場。

I think specifically to your question in China, your numbers are roughly correct. Our numbers are a little bit different, but roughly correct that there's a lot of growth in China in these areas and they can build those types of devices. And so if you look at a trillion connected devices at the edge by 2030, the explosion of data and really the transformation of many industries, health care, education, you see retail, transportation, all of these areas growing very fast. And the companies that are growing quickly from a market cap standpoint are companies that are data-centric companies.

我認為專門針對您在中國提出的問題，您的數字大致正確。我們的數字略有不同，但大致正確的是，中國在這些領域有很多增長，他們可以製造這些類型的設備。因此，如果你看看到 2030 年將有數万億台聯網設備、數據爆炸以及許多行業、醫療保健、教育的真正轉型，你會看到零售、交通運輸，所有這些領域都增長得非常快。從市值的角度來看，快速增長的公司是以數據為中心的公司。

So again, I think that's really what we're seeing is this explosion of data, and this market is a very big market. Applied has a very strong position. We put together in the last year a team of great leaders across the company for 300-millimeter and smaller wafer sizes. I personally am meeting many of the CEOs and R&D leaders in this ecosystem. And we have really, really strong momentum. One example is one particular large customer where we won 2/3 of the available opportunities in a market that is very, very sticky over a long period of time. So I think you're correct in that maybe it's surprising that the market is growing like that, but we think this is really the early innings of these particular markets, IoT, communication, auto, power and sensors from a growth perspective. And it's -- Applied has a really great position inside that market.

再說一次，我認為我們真正看到的是數據的爆炸式增長，這個市場是一個非常大的市場。應用有非常強大的地位。去年，我們組建了一支由全公司優秀領導者組成的團隊，負責 300 毫米和更小的晶圓尺寸。我個人會見這個生態系統中的許多 CEO 和研發領導者。我們有非常非常強勁的勢頭。一個例子是一個特別大的客戶，我們在一個長期非常非常具有粘性的市場中贏得了 2/3 的可用機會。所以我認為你是對的，市場如此增長也許令人驚訝，但我們認為從增長的角度來看，這確實是這些特定市場的早期階段，物聯網、通信、汽車、電力和傳感器。而且它 - Applied 在該市場中具有非常好的地位。

And Krish, coming back to the first part of your question where you talked about growth and how much of it is share gain versus capital intensity, I think it's important to take a step back and set a context around how the company has evolved over time. If we were to go back a handful of years, we were strong in foundry, over 20%, and around mid-teens in all 3 other device types. Today, we're balanced across all of the device types. So the company has made steady progress on that front over the last handful of years since Gary has took over the company.

Krish，回到你問題的第一部分，你談到了增長以及其中有多少是股票收益與資本強度，我認為退後一步並圍繞公司如何隨著時間的推移設定一個背景是很重要的.如果我們回到幾年前，我們在代工方面很強大，超過 20%，在所有其他 3 種設備類型中都在十幾歲左右。今天，我們平衡了所有設備類型。因此，自加里接管公司以來的過去幾年裡，公司在這方面取得了穩步進展。

Your specific question referenced a time period in 2018. We were high teens, a little over 19% from an overall WFE share standpoint that year. Today, now we're -- I'm sorry, 2019, we were a little over -- probably a little over 20% in 2019. So we feel really good about the progress we've made in significantly outperforming the peers and the market in 2019. So you definitely see some share accretion playing out in the current environment.

您的具體問題提到了 2018 年的一個時間段。我們是青少年，從當年 WFE 的整體份額來看，略高於 19%。今天，現在我們 - 對不起，2019 年，我們有點過頭了 - 2019 年可能超過 20%。所以我們對我們在顯著優於同行和市場在 2019 年。因此，您肯定會看到在當前環境中出現一些份額增長。

The second thing I would say, our thesis around increasing capital intensity, you see it in the foundry/logic. You see it in NAND, you see it in DRAM. That thesis of increasing capital intensity over time is firmly intact. We know our customers are investing a lot of money in WFE. And so their profitability, WFE as a percent of their profitability, has come down since 2012. WFE as a percent of EBITDA in memory and foundry/logic is down 25% over the last half a dozen years. And so they're spending a lot, but they're making a lot of money. And so the health of our customers is as good as it's ever been.

我要說的第二件事，我們關於增加資本密集度的論點，你可以在代工/邏輯中看到它。你在 NAND 中看到它，在 DRAM 中看到它。隨著時間的推移增加資本密集度的論點是堅定不移的。我們知道我們的客戶在 WFE 上投入了大量資金。因此，自 2012 年以來，他們的盈利能力（WFE 佔其盈利能力的百分比）已經下降。在過去的六年中，WFE 佔內存和代工/邏輯的 EBITDA 的百分比下降了 25%。所以他們花了很多錢，但他們賺了很多錢。因此，我們客戶的健康狀況一如既往地好。

And then from a capital intensity standpoint, what we see is WFE as a percent of overall semiconductor industry revenue bottomed around 2013 at 9%. Of course, we're taking the one data point around the '08, '09 downturn of 6% off the table. 2013, it was about 9%. And Gary referenced in his prepared comments, we've been in a tight band centered around 11.5% for the last 5 years. So it's a clear indication this industry is experiencing increased capital intensity. The macro demand drivers driving the overall semiconductor industry are firmly intact. Semiconductors are going to go structurally larger as the data economy kicks in. And by implication, our industry and Applied Materials are growing structurally larger. So we think the opportunities in front of us has never looked -- has never looked as good as they do today, and we're really excited about what we see.

然後從資本密集度的角度來看，我們看到 WFE 佔整個半導體行業收入的百分比在 2013 年左右觸底，為 9%。當然，我們將 08 年、09 年經濟衰退 6% 的數據點排除在外。 2013 年，這一比例約為 9%。加里在他準備好的評論中提到，在過去的 5 年裡，我們一直處於一個以 11.5% 為中心的狹窄區間。因此，這清楚地表明該行業正在經歷資本密集度的增加。推動整個半導體行業的宏觀需求驅動因素完好無損。隨著數據經濟的興起，半導體將在結構上變得更大。通過暗示，我們的行業和應用材料在結構上變得更大。所以我們認為擺在我們面前的機會從來沒有像今天這樣好，我們對所看到的感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Great job on the quarterly execution. One way to combat the slowing of traditional Moore's law on the manufacturing front but still drive Moore's law, like performance improvements at the chip level, is through the use of these advanced package whether that's chiplet strategy, multichip die stacking. You guys have a pretty strong position in these markets. How is this segment expected to do this year? And roughly how big is your advanced packaging segment relative to the size of your overall semi business?

在季度執行方面做得很好。對抗傳統摩爾定律在製造方面放緩但仍推動摩爾定律的一種方法，如芯片級性能改進，是通過使用這些先進封裝，無論是小芯片策略、多芯片芯片堆疊。你們在這些市場上擁有相當強大的地位。今年這個細分市場的表現如何？相對於整個半導體業務的規模，您的先進封裝細分市場大概有多大？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Harlan. So in -- you're right. We talked about this new playbook going beyond the classic 2D shrinking and Moore's Law. And packaging is 1 of those 5 drivers for the new playbook, and it really, really, really is very important. The -- one example is if you take GPU in a new package, and this is a product that was released over the last couple of years, you'll get 50% lower power and 3x increase in speed, 3x increase in speed just from the package. So definitely really important as part of the new playbook.

是的。謝謝你的問題，哈蘭。所以在 - 你是對的。我們討論了這個超越經典 2D 收縮和摩爾定律的新劇本。包裝是新劇本的 5 個驅動因素之一，它真的、真的、真的非常重要。一個例子是，如果你將 GPU 放入一個新包中，這是過去幾年發布的一款產品，你將獲得 50% 的低功耗和 3 倍的速度提升，速度提升 3 倍。包裹。因此，作為新劇本的一部分，這絕對是非常重要的。

From an Applied perspective, we had record revenues in packaging in 2019, and we have really strong momentum into 2020. We have the most comprehensive portfolio of solutions to support the packaging road maps for our customers and as you talked about, heterogeneous integration approaches. In 2019, we won over 50% of the applications we competed for. And our -- we have this broad portfolio with CVD, PVD, CMP, plating and etch where we have highly differentiated new products.

從應用的角度來看，我們在 2019 年的包裝收入創歷史新高，到 2020 年我們的勢頭非常強勁。我們擁有最全面的解決方案組合來支持我們客戶的包裝路線圖，正如您所說的，異構集成方法。 2019 年，我們贏得了超過 50% 的競爭申請。而我們的——我們擁有廣泛的 CVD、PVD、CMP、電鍍和蝕刻產品組合，我們在這些產品中擁有高度差異化的新產品。

We have very deep engagements with leading customers, and there's a lot of focus on innovating with new packaging architectures. Applied has very deep engagement with -- really across the whole ecosystem. That -- those engagements are really driven by 2 things. One, we have the broadest portfolio of current and new products that haven't been announced yet, that are enabling from a packaging perspective. We also have the most advanced packaging lab where we can run entire end-to-end process and codevelop new packaging technology with leading customers and partners.

我們與主要客戶有非常深入的合作，並且非常注重使用新的封裝架構進行創新。 Applied 與整個生態系統有著非常深入的聯繫。那 - 這些參與實際上是由兩件事驅動的。第一，我們擁有最廣泛的尚未公佈的當前和新產品組合，從包裝的角度來看，這些產品是可以實現的。我們還擁有最先進的封裝實驗室，在這裡我們可以運行整個端到端流程，並與領先的客戶和合作夥伴共同開發新的封裝技術。

So again, overall, very strong momentum with record business in '19. And I think this area, it's -- we haven't quantified it in terms of a dollar amount, but it's sizable. And I would say relative to growth opportunities as one of the elements of the new playbook, it's underappreciated, and the opportunities are bigger than what people would think relative to our growth potential here.

因此，總的來說，19 年創紀錄的業務勢頭非常強勁。我認為這個領域，它是 - 我們沒有用美元來量化它，但它是相當大的。我想說，作為新劇本的要素之一的增長機會，它被低估了，而且機會比人們認為的相對於我們的增長潛力要大。

Yes, thanks for the insights there. And then you guys have talked about memory spending recovery with NAND leading the way this year. But with DRAM pricing now steadily rising, especially in mobile and servers and looking to be sustainable, and you've also got the new gaming console platforms launching in the second half that are driving pretty strong bit demand growth for graphics DRAM, are you guys starting to get some visibility on a return to spending by some of your DRAM customers in the second half of this year?

是的，感謝那裡的見解。然後你們談到了今年 NAND 引領內存支出的複蘇。但隨著 DRAM 價格現在穩步上漲，尤其是在移動和服務器領域，並且希望具有可持續性，而且下半年推出的新遊戲機平台也推動了圖形 DRAM 的強勁需求增長，你們是嗎？開始對今年下半年您的一些 DRAM 客戶的支出回報有所了解？

Yes. Thanks, Harlan. I'll take that. I think what we see, we talked about the magnitude of the growth we see in WFE year-over-year into 2020. Our view on that is that it's broad-based. I think that you'll see a good profile from foundry/logic. I think you see a good profile from memory. And I think you will see balance across device types within memory. The growth profile into 2020 is going to be across those different device types. And yes, so we will start seeing DRAM this year.

是的。謝謝，哈蘭。我會接受的。我認為我們所看到的，我們談到了到 2020 年 WFE 同比增長的幅度。我們對此的看法是，它是廣泛的。我認為您會從代工廠/邏輯中看到一個很好的配置文件。我認為您從記憶中看到了良好的個人資料。而且我認為您會看到內存中設備類型之間的平衡。到 2020 年的增長情況將涉及這些不同的設備類型。是的，所以我們將在今年開始看到 DRAM。

Our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

On foundry/logic, you had like a record quarter of $1.9 billion. I was curious to hear how much of that comes from deep EUV nodes where a lot capacity being added today so that your foundries (inaudible) and IBM (inaudible) and IBM 10-nanometer? And how much of your revenues are already coming from the new EUV nodes?

在代工/邏輯方面，您擁有創紀錄的 19 億美元的季度。我很想知道其中有多少來自深度 EUV 節點，今天增加了很多容量，以便您的代工廠（聽不清）和 IBM（聽不清）和 IBM 10 納米？你們有多少收入已經來自新的 EUV 節點？

Pierre, this is Mike. Unfortunately, I couldn't hear your -- I think you're maybe on cellphone. So we can tell you you're talking about foundry and the mix of getting to a number like $1.9 billion. But I -- we unfortunately couldn't hear the rest of the details of your question. And so we're not sure how to respond. Could you try one more time, please?

皮埃爾，這是邁克。不幸的是，我聽不到你的聲音——我想你可能正在打電話。所以我們可以告訴你，你說的是代工以及達到 19 億美元這樣的數字。但我——很遺憾，我們聽不到你問題的其餘細節。所以我們不知道如何回應。請再試一次好嗎？

Oh, yes. Can you hear me better now?

哦是的。你現在能聽到我的聲音了嗎？

That is a little better. Let's try again.

那好一點。讓我們再試一次。

Okay. Sorry for that.

好的。對此感到抱歉。

So I was wondering how much total revenues come from like deep EUV nodes where capacity is being added at the moment 7-nanometer foundry and 5-nanometer and 10-nanometer IGM? And how much is coming from the new EUV nodes ramping today?

所以我想知道有多少總收入來自像深度 EUV 節點，目前 7 納米代工廠和 5 納米和 10 納米 IGM 正在增加產能？今天新的 EUV 節點增加了多少？

Yes. So thanks, Pierre. Let me take a stab at that and then see if Gary wants to add anything.

是的。所以謝謝，皮埃爾。讓我嘗試一下，然後看看 Gary 是否想添加任何內容。

So what I would say is we won't share internal forecast of how foundry/logic breaks out across nodes, but I think -- let me provide some color and context around the $1.9 billion. I think we would say that we're seeing strong adoption at 7 nanometers as they build out the node, strong adoption node over node as 5 nanometers gets deployed from a capacity standpoint and the logic equivalents of that. And while we talk about a more balanced market in foundry/logic, I think what you would see in the near-term environment that it's going to be significantly more weighted in the near term to these leading-edge technologies. And so we really like the way the business is performing node over node. In fact, as we look out into 3 nanometers, we really like the position and we think we can significantly enhance our relative position node over node. So we really like the way the business has performed on the leading edge. And what you see in the near-term environment, given the strong ramp around 5 to 7 nanometers is less balance in the market in the near term. But the long-term trend of diversification within foundry/logic is still intact.

所以我想說的是，我們不會分享關於代工/邏輯如何跨節點突破的內部預測，但我認為 - 讓我提供一些關於 19 億美元的顏色和背景。我想我們會說，我們在構建節點時看到了 7 納米的強烈採用，從容量的角度來看，隨著 5 納米的部署以及邏輯等價物的部署，節點採用節點超過節點。雖然我們談論的是代工/邏輯市場更加平衡，但我認為您在近期環境中會看到，在短期內，這些前沿技術的權重將大大增加。所以我們真的很喜歡業務在節點上執行節點的方式。事實上，當我們看到 3 納米時，我們真的很喜歡這個位置，我們認為我們可以顯著增強我們相對於節點的相對位置。因此，我們非常喜歡該業務在領先優勢上的表現。鑑於 5 到 7 納米左右的強勁增長，您在近期環境中看到的情況在近期內市場的平衡性較差。但代工/邏輯多元化的長期趨勢仍然完好無損。

Yes, Pierre, the other thing I would add relative to the leading foundry/logic is that all of these customers are driving performance: power, area costs, PPAC improvements. And that's really all about new materials, new structures to drive power and performance. And so for Applied, as Dan said, really from a leading perspective, leading node perspective, it's really -- it is those EUV nodes like 5-nanometer where you see that adoption. But still, we're achieving record revenue. We have so many opportunities when we're driving these new structures, new materials, new architectures, all of those different areas. So we see record revenue there.

是的，皮埃爾，相對於領先的代工廠/邏輯，我要補充的另一件事是，所有這些客戶都在推動性能：功率、面積成本、PPAC 改進。這實際上是關於新材料、新結構來驅動功率和性能的全部內容。因此，正如 Dan 所說，對於 Applied 來說，真正從領先的角度，領先的節點角度來看，它真的是 - 你看到的是那些像 5 納米這樣的 EUV 節點的採用。但是，我們仍然實現了創紀錄的收入。當我們推動這些新結構、新材料、新架構以及所有這些不同領域時，我們有很多機會。所以我們在那裡看到了創紀錄的收入。

We're also seeing growth not only in transistor, interconnect and patterning with some of our leading products, but we also have growth in areas where we have had lower share. In etch, we have many new critical etch steps that we've won, new soft line multipatterning wins and EUV patterning steps where we really didn't participate in the past. So we look at our etch business in foundry and logic, we are extremely optimistic about the growth that we're seeing as new nodes are adopted, even as EUV is also being adopted as one of the 5 drivers of power, performance, area and cost.

我們不僅在晶體管、互連和圖案化方面看到了一些領先產品的增長，而且在我們佔有率較低的領域也有增長。在蝕刻方面，我們已經贏得了許多新的關鍵蝕刻步驟、新的軟線多重圖案化勝利和 EUV 圖案化步驟，而我們過去確實沒有參與這些步驟。因此，我們著眼於代工和邏輯領域的蝕刻業務，我們對採用新節點時所看到的增長非常樂觀，即使 EUV 也被用作功率、性能、面積和成本。

The other thing I talked about is in process control, we have continued strength in e-beam. We also have strong adoption of a new inspection tool. And we had record revenues in that market this last quarter.

我談到的另一件事是在過程控制方面，我們在電子束方面有持續的實力。我們還大力採用了一種新的檢查工具。上個季度，我們在該市場取得了創紀錄的收入。

So again, it's really about driving that new playbook along those 5 vectors, power and performance. Our leading products, we're seeing new steps being adopted. And in some areas, we have room to grow. The opportunities for us have never been better, and our position has never been better than today.

再說一次，這真的是關於沿著這 5 個向量、功率和性能推動新的劇本。我們的領先產品，我們看到正在採取新的步驟。在某些領域，我們還有成長的空間。我們的機會從未像現在這樣好，我們的地位也從未像今天這樣好。

Thanks, Pierre.

謝謝，皮埃爾。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

I wonder if you can address the $300 million of kind of deferred revenue that pushes to next quarter. Can you talk about why that's happening? Is that just sort of issues with your customers getting up and running? Is it logistics issues getting tools to them? Or is it supply constraints that you have getting kind of sub assemblies to build tools? Just can you kind of tell us what's driving the deferral?

我想知道您是否可以解決推動到下個季度的 3 億美元遞延收入。你能談談為什麼會這樣嗎？這只是您的客戶啟動和運行的問題嗎？為他們提供工具是物流問題嗎？或者是供應限制，您有某種子程序集來構建工具？你能告訴我們是什麼推動了延期嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. I think the best way to describe it is the actions China is taking to contain the spread of the virus has led to travel restrictions and logistics of moving things around the country. We see those impacts as being temporary and it reprofiles revenue from Q2 to the back part of our fiscal year. And so in the early stages of the China workforce coming back after the Lunar New Year and after the imposed restrictions by the government, we're seeing some early signs that are encouraging of some return to normalcy. It's a fluid environment. It's too early to draw a conclusion from it. But we like some of the early indications that we see. We're going to continue to monitor the situation closely and update as necessary.

是的。謝謝，喬。我認為最好的描述方式是中國為遏制病毒傳播而採取的行動導致了旅行限制和在全國范圍內運輸物品的物流。我們認為這些影響是暫時的，它將第二季度的收入重新定位到我們財政年度的後期。因此，在農曆新年後和政府實施限制措施後中國勞動力回歸的早期階段，我們看到了一些令人鼓舞的早期跡象，這些跡象令人鼓舞，一些恢復正常。這是一個流動的環境。現在下結論還為時過早。但我們喜歡我們看到的一些早期跡象。我們將繼續密切關注情況並在必要時進行更新。

Again, as we break out that $300 million, you rank order it: semi systems, display, services. It's about getting our people into the factories and being able to service the equipment. That certainly puts some restrictions on it. We know Wuhan is an important geography in our display business. Getting our systems into the factories in that region are impacted in the near term. And then semi systems, it's more of the same. And so we think that given everything we know, it's a prudent approach to the environment we see. We're going to continue to monitor it. There's an opportunity to do better in Q2. We think the customer demand is there. And we do think that we recover in Q3, Q4 and our full year fiscal year outlook remains intact.

同樣，當我們突破 3 億美元時，您對其進行排序：半系統、顯示器、服務。這是關於讓我們的員工進入工廠並能夠維修設備。這當然會對其施加一些限制。我們知道武漢是我們展示業務的重要地理位置。將我們的系統安裝到該地區的工廠會在短期內受到影響。然後是半系統，它更相似。因此，我們認為，鑑於我們所知道的一切，這是對我們所看到的環境的一種謹慎態度。我們將繼續對其進行監控。第二季度有機會做得更好。我們認為客戶的需求就在那裡。我們確實認為我們在第三季度、第四季度復甦，我們的全年財政年度前景保持不變。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

Congratulations on the strong growth and for all the color that you gave. A lot of questions were asked on the product side. I wanted to ask about services. Were you surprised to see the slowdown in services in the last few quarters? What drove that? And then more importantly, let's say you're targeting a 15%, 20% growth for next year, how much does AGS need to grow for that? Or how much can AGS grow in that kind of product growth environment?

祝賀你的強勁增長和你給的所有顏色。在產品方面提出了很多問題。我想問一下服務。您對過去幾個季度服務業的放緩感到驚訝嗎？是什麼推動了它？然後更重要的是，假設您的目標是明年增長 15%、20%，AGS 需要為此增長多少？或者說AGS在那種產品增長環境下能增長多少？

Yes. Thanks, Vivek. So as we look at services, we talked about the framework of growth in that business in the prepared comments. It's size of the installed base. It's complexity of the leading node technologies. And it's the execution against the long-term service agreement opportunity we have. Those underlying growth drivers are absolutely intact. This is a business that's grown strong double digits over the last handful of years.

是的。謝謝，維維克。因此，當我們查看服務時，我們在準備好的評論中討論了該業務的增長框架。它是安裝基礎的大小。這是領先節點技術的複雜性。這是對我們擁有的長期服務協議機會的執行。這些潛在的增長動力絕對完好無損。這是一項在過去幾年中增長強勁的兩位數的業務。

Q1 was a record quarter for us and significantly above seasonal. Q2 would have been our first billion-dollar quarter. And so the team is doing a great job executing.

第一季度對我們來說是創紀錄的季度，明顯高於季節性。第二季度將是我們第一個十億美元的季度。所以團隊在執行方面做得很好。

We also know the slowdown in the near term is a function of the memory correction that we're seeing profiled throughout 2019. As industry utilizations come down, our transactional component of the business has reflected what's happening to industry-wide utilizations. The theme is still executing against the long-term service agreement opportunity and grew that business nicely in the mid-teens in 2019.

我們還知道，短期內的放緩是我們在 2019 年看到的內存修正的函數。隨著行業利用率的下降，我們業務的交易部分反映了全行業利用率的變化。該主題仍在針對長期服務協議機會執行，並在 2019 年中期很好地發展了該業務。

What we like about the setup through the back half of the year and as we look into 2021, with the services business in particular, as the memory recovery begins to take hold and as we look at that building momentum throughout 2021, foundry/logic demand continues to be strong. Those are going to provide a nice tailwind for that business to grow into the back half of the year and into 2021. So underlying demand drivers intact, team is executing well, and we like the profile going forward.

在今年下半年以及展望 2021 年時，我們喜歡這種設置，特別是服務業務，隨著內存恢復開始站穩腳跟，隨著我們看到整個 2021 年的建設勢頭，代工/邏輯需求繼續強勁。這些將為該業務在今年下半年和 2021 年的增長提供良好的順風。因此，潛在的需求驅動因素完好無損，團隊執行良好，我們喜歡未來的概況。

Yes, just one more data point I talked about in the prepared remarks. We added 15% increase in the tools under service agreements. And those -- that subscription-type revenue is very sticky and also gives us a higher entitlement per tool. So that's been a big focus. It's been a tremendous change in the last few years, this significant growth. And it's really based on the value that we're providing our customers.

是的，只是我在準備好的評論中談到的一個數據點。我們根據服務協議增加了 15% 的工具。而那些 - 訂閱類型的收入非常粘稠，並且還為我們提供了每個工具更高的權利。所以這是一個很大的焦點。在過去的幾年裡，這是一個巨大的變化，這種顯著的增長。它實際上是基於我們為客戶提供的價值。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

I guess I wanted to go through some numbers with you guys. So you're -- I think you said, Dan, 19.2% of WFE last year. So if I assume that the second half is flat versus the first half, that would put SSG sort of in the $11.5 million to like $12 billion range. So I don't think you would argue with either of those numbers since that's what you've guided. So if I use that, and then I assume that you don't gain or lose any share this year, that would imply like a $61 billion WFE number. You're sort of saying, well, it's probably going to be more like $57 million. So if I just average those 2 and take $59 million, and if I try to figure out how much revenue is required to support that much WFE, and I listen to what Gary said, which I totally agree with about WFE intensity that it usually peaks out at about 12%. So if you take 12%, that would imply that you need over $500 million worth of semiconductor revenue this year, which would be up like 25% year-over-year. So I definitely get that YMTC is some of the incremental WFE, and they don't have much revenue. But how can you build a path to have enough revenue to support this? I guess that's the question. It's just hard to see WFE growing off of this. It would -- like it's going to take a long time for revenue to kind of grow into these WFE levels.

我想我想和你們一起討論一些數字。所以你 - 我想你說過，Dan，去年 WFE 的 19.2%。因此，如果我假設下半年與上半年持平，那麼 SSG 將在 1150 萬美元到 120 億美元之間。因此，我認為您不會與這些數字中的任何一個爭論，因為那是您所指導的。因此，如果我使用它，然後我假設您今年不會獲得或失去任何份額，那將意味著 610 億美元的 WFE 數字。你的意思是，嗯，它可能會更像是 5700 萬美元。因此，如果我只是平均這 2 並拿 5900 萬美元，如果我試圖弄清楚需要多少收入來支持這麼多 WFE，我會聽 Gary 說的話，我完全同意 WFE 強度通常會達到峰值約 12%。因此，如果你佔 12%，這意味著你今年需要價值超過 5 億美元的半導體收入，同比增長 25%。所以我肯定知道長江存儲是一些增量的 WFE，他們沒有多少收入。但是，您如何才能建立一條獲得足夠收入來支持這一點的途徑呢？我想這就是問題所在。很難看到 WFE 從中成長。它會 - 就像收入需要很長時間才能增長到這些 WFE 水平。

Yes. Thanks, Tim. Appreciate the question. So a couple of things. We have in sight and what we think our semi systems business can do against the backdrop of the environment we see. And we're very confident in our ability to significantly outgrow the market. And then from a modeling standpoint, here's, I guess, how I would get at some of the assumptions. We think 2020 is going to be a really good year. We expect to outperform the market.

是的。謝謝，蒂姆。欣賞這個問題。所以有幾件事。在我們所看到的環境背景下，我們已經看到並且我們認為我們的半系統業務可以做些什麼。我們對我們顯著超越市場的能力充滿信心。然後從建模的角度來看，我想，我將如何獲得一些假設。我們認為 2020 年將是非常好的一年。我們預計將跑贏大市。

One of the key variables in the model that you're putting together is what you assume for market share. And small changes in market share can make big differences in the model. So we see continued strength from foundry and logic in our business throughout the year. We've got signs of memory recovery. And as we've been saying for a couple of quarters, ultimately it depends on the magnitude and shape of the memory recovery later in the year. And if we see more momentum in that than we're currently planning for, then I do think that we have an opportunity to outperform in Q4 and into our fiscal Q1.

您匯總的模型中的關鍵變量之一是您對市場份額的假設。市場份額的微小變化會對模型產生很大的影響。因此，我們看到全年我們業務的代工和邏輯持續強勁。我們有記憶恢復的跡象。正如我們幾個季度以來一直在說的那樣，最終這取決於今年晚些時候記憶恢復的幅度和形狀。如果我們看到這方面的勢頭比我們目前計劃的要大，那麼我確實認為我們有機會在第四季度和第一季度表現出色。

And so net-net, we don't see this being an isolated pocket of performance. We're relatively balanced half over half, and we feel really good about how we're positioned and how we're performing this year.

所以 net-net，我們不認為這是一個孤立的性能口袋。我們相對平衡了一半，我們對自己的定位和今年的表現感覺非常好。

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

Gary, maybe just to follow up on the share position for Applied both in terms of the customer spending mix, which is influential for you as well as some of the competitive and design wins. You've talked about process control being a record revenue year. How do you look at the next couple of years as, I guess, new products continue to be introduced and additional competitive wins you believe can drive the company on this outperformance?

Gary，也許只是在客戶支出組合方面跟進 Applied 的份額位置，這對您以及一些競爭和設計勝利都有影響。您已經談到過程控制是創紀錄的收入年。您如何看待未來幾年，我猜，新產品不斷推出，您認為額外的競爭勝利可以推動公司實現這一優異表現？

Yes, thanks, Patrick. So I would say I've never been more optimistic relative to the market. Again, you have new demand drivers that are layered on top of mobile, social media and PC. So the market is going to be bigger than we've seen in the past. And you can also see indications over the last few years, the market is structurally larger and less volatile. We have very good share spread across all of the different segments, the leading foundry/logic. We have momentum as customers are driving improvements in power, performance, area and cost. In the specialty nodes, we have very, very strong positions, whether it's in image sensors or any of the other markets like IoT, communication, auto and power devices. So we have strength there. We've grown a significant amount in DRAM and in NAND relative to market share. Dan talked about this earlier. We've grown several points over the last few years. So we have very strong balance.

是的，謝謝，帕特里克。所以我想說，相對於市場，我從未像現在這樣樂觀。同樣，您擁有位於移動、社交媒體和 PC 之上的新需求驅動因素。因此，市場將比我們過去看到的更大。您還可以看到過去幾年的跡象，市場在結構上更大，波動性更小。我們在所有不同的領域都有很好的份額，領先的代工/邏輯。隨著客戶推動功率、性能、面積和成本方面的改進，我們有動力。在專業節點，我們擁有非常非常強大的地位，無論是在圖像傳感器還是任何其他市場，如物聯網、通信、汽車和電力設備。所以我們在那裡有實力。相對於市場份額，我們在 DRAM 和 NAND 方面的增長顯著。丹早些時候談到了這一點。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經增長了幾個點。所以我們有很強的平衡。

And what I would say is again, the path forward for the industry is really this new playbook around new architectures, new structures, new materials. New packet is also where we had record last year, and we have strength and new ways to strength. So we have the product pipeline. And then we have some very significant products in the pipeline that are targeted at multibillion-dollar types of opportunities.

我要再說一遍，這個行業的前進道路實際上是這個圍繞新架構、新結構、新材料的新劇本。新包也是我們去年的記錄，我們有實力和新的方式來增強。所以我們有產品管道。然後我們有一些非常重要的產品正在籌備中，這些產品針對數十億美元的機會。

But the other thing I would say that's really important is the combinations of these different technologies with integrated material solutions, driving significant improvements in throughput, in drive current or power, the things really that are crucial for the edge and the cloud. We have unique capabilities to combine these technologies, some of them under vacuum so you're not damaging interfaces electrically. So that's another area. We have engagements across every single customer with integrated material solutions. We have very good momentum there besides the current products and we have -- and the products that we have in the pipeline. So again, from my perspective, I've never been more optimistic. I spend a huge amount of my personal time with the R&D leaders for the customers through this entire ecosystem. They're struggling to drive the performance, power improvements that are needed. And I think Applied is in the best position that we've ever been relative to our ability to drive our opportunities and growth going forward.

但我要說的另一件事非常重要，是將這些不同的技術與集成材料解決方案相結合，推動吞吐量、驅動電流或功率的顯著提高，這些對於邊緣和雲來說確實至關重要。我們擁有將這些技術結合起來的獨特能力，其中一些技術是在真空下進行的，因此您不會對接口造成電氣損壞。所以這是另一個領域。我們通過集成材料解決方案與每一位客戶進行合作。除了當前的產品和我們擁有的產品以及我們正在籌備中的產品外，我們在這方面的勢頭非常好。所以再一次，從我的角度來看，我從未如此樂觀。在整個生態系統中，我花費大量個人時間與客戶的研發負責人在一起。他們正在努力推動所需的性能和功率改進。我認為，就我們推動機遇和增長的能力而言，應用材料公司處於我們有史以來最好的位置。

Yes. Thanks, Patrick. Thanks for your question. Dan, would you like to help us close the call?

是的。謝謝，帕特里克。謝謝你的問題。丹，你願意幫助我們結束通話嗎？

Sure, Mike. First, our sympathies to everybody who's been affected by the coronavirus situation. I want to personally thank all of our employees who are helping their families and their communities while also taking really good care of our customers.

當然，邁克。首先，我們對所有受到冠狀病毒影響的人表示同情。我要親自感謝我們所有的員工，他們幫助他們的家人和社區，同時也非常照顧我們的客戶。

Applied's outlook for 2020 remains really positive. We expect to deliver strong double-digit growth in our semi systems business this year, significantly outperforming our end markets. Looking out into the future, I really like the setup. I really like what I see: continued strong pull foundry/logic, improvement in memory. Both of those elements are going to drive and fuel growth in our services business over time. I like what I see in display increasing into the second half of 2020 and into 2021. And we expect to close the Kokusai transaction in the middle of the year. So I really like the setup in 2020 and 2021. Gary and I hope to see many of you tomorrow at Goldman. And next week, I'll be on the East Coast and look forward to seeing many of you as well. Let's close the call, Mike.

Applied對2020年的展望仍然非常樂觀。我們預計今年我們的半導體系統業務將實現兩位數的強勁增長，顯著優於我們的終端市場。展望未來，我真的很喜歡這個設置。我真的很喜歡我所看到的：持續的強拉代工/邏輯，內存的改進。隨著時間的推移，這兩個要素都將推動和推動我們服務業務的增長。我喜歡我在 2020 年下半年和 2021 年看到的顯示增加。我們預計將在年中完成 Kokusai 交易。所以我真的很喜歡 2020 年和 2021 年的設置。加里和我希望明天在高盛見到你們中的許多人。下週，我將在東海岸，也期待見到你們中的許多人。讓我們結束通話，邁克。

Okay. Thanks. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of our call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 Pacific time. And we would like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。謝謝。我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。太平洋時間 5:00 將在我們的網站上重播我們的通話。我們要感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。