應用材料 (AMAT) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。 （操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將會議交給公司副總裁麥可‧沙利文先生。請您開始吧，先生。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining Applied's First Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings Call, which is being recorded. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝各位參加應用材料公司2020財年第一季財報電話會議，本次會議正在錄音。與我一同出席的有：總裁兼執行長加里·迪克森，以及財務長丹·杜恩。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-K and 8-K filings with the SEC. Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

在會議開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致我們的實際業績與預期存在差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的信息，請參閱Applied公司最近向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的10-K和8-K表格。今天的電話會議也包含非GAAP財務指標。與GAAP指標的調節表可在今天的獲利新聞稿和調節表幻燈片中找到，這些資料可在我們網站appliedmaterials.com的投資者關係頁面上查閱。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike. I'm pleased to report that earnings for our first fiscal quarter exceeded the top end of our guidance, reflecting outstanding execution across the company in a market environment that is strengthening. Based on our calendar year revenues, we believe we outperformed both the market and our direct peers in 2019. We entered 2020 with momentum, and the signals we see give us increased confidence that the years ahead will be very good for the industry and especially for Applied Materials. In today's call, I'll give you my perspective on how our markets are evolving and provide our near-term outlook. Then, I'll highlight the key components of our strategy to address the changing needs of our customers and drive sustainable, profitable growth for Applied Materials.

謝謝，麥克。我很高興地報告，我們第一財季的盈利超過了預期上限，這反映了公司在市場環境不斷走強的情況下，各部門的出色執行力。根據我們2019年的全年營收，我們相信我們的業績超越了市場和直接同行。我們帶著強勁的發展勢頭進入了2020年，我們看到的種種跡象讓我們更加確信，未來幾年對於整個行業，尤其是對於應用材料公司而言，都將是非常好的前景。在今天的電話會議上，我將分享我對市場發展趨勢的看法，並介紹我們的近期展望。之後，我將重點介紹我們策略的關鍵組成部分，以滿足客戶不斷變化的需求，並推動應用材料公司實現可持續的獲利成長。

Before I get started, I'll take a minute to address the implications of the coronavirus outbreak. To direct a comprehensive response across all the regions where we operate, we quickly activated our business continuity teams. Our top priority is the health and safety of our employees and their families. We're also doing everything we can to provide our customers the support they need to minimize disruption to their business. In addition, the Applied Materials Foundation is sending medical equipment into Wuhan, and we've created a humanitarian response fund for our employees in China and the communities where they live and work.

在正式開始之前，我想先花一點時間談談新型冠狀病毒疫情的影響。為了在我們所有營運地區採取全面的應對措施，我們迅速啟動了業務連續性團隊。我們最優先考慮的是員工及其家人的健康和安全。同時，我們也竭盡所能為客戶提供所需的支持，以最大程度地減少對他們業務的影響。此外，應用材料基金會正在向武漢運送醫療設備，我們還設立了人道主義援助基金，用於幫助我們在中國的員工以及他們生活和工作的社區。

In terms of the business, our current assessment is that the overall impact for fiscal 2020 will be minimal. However, with travel and logistics restrictions, we do expect changes in the timing of revenues during the year. We are actively managing the situation in collaboration with our customers and suppliers.

就業務而言，我們目前的評估是，2020財年的整體影響將微乎其微。然而，由於旅行和物流限制，我們預計年內收入到帳時間會有所變動。我們正與客戶和供應商積極合作，共同應對這一局面。

While we're making the necessary adjustments to our near-term plans, we are not taking our eye off the powerful trends that are driving the semiconductor industry forward and creating a structurally larger and less volatile market. At the low point of this recent down cycle in customer spending, which occurred in the second calendar quarter of 2019, the combined quarterly revenues of the top 5 semi equipment companies were only 17% lower than at the cycle's peak. In contrast during the industry cycles that took place between 2000 and 2013, peak-to-trough revenues for the same 5 companies combined dropped on average 44%.

在對近期計畫進行必要調整的同時，我們並未忽視推動半導體產業發展的強勁趨勢，這些趨勢正在建構一個規模更大、波動性更低的市場。在2019年第二季消費者支出低迷的低谷時期，排名前五的半導體設備公司季度總收入僅比週期高峰下降了17%。相較之下，在2000年至2013年間的產業週期中，這五家公司從高峰到谷底的總收入平均下降了44%。

Another important metric we look at is equipment intensity or annual equipment spending as a percentage of annual semiconductor industry revenues. Between 1990 and 2014, this equipment intensity metric fluctuated between 17% and 6%. However, when we look at the most recent 5-year period, equipment intensity has been in a tight band of 10.5% to 12% with a mean of 11.5%. We believe this is a good estimate going forward and reflects the ever more complex technology challenges we're addressing and the increasing value we're delivering to the ecosystem. In addition to the higher growth and lower cyclicality we see in the market as a whole, Applied is demonstrating even lower volatility than our peers. The reasons for this include the breadth of our product portfolio and the balance we have across different device segments. Dan will provide more color on this topic in his section.

我們關注的另一個重要指標是設備密集度，即年度設備支出佔半導體產業年度收入的百分比。 1990 年至 2014 年間，該指標在 6% 至 17% 之間波動。然而，在最近五年中，設備密集度一直穩定在 10.5% 至 12% 的區間內，平均值為 11.5%。我們認為這是一個合理的預測，反映了我們正在應對的日益複雜的技術挑戰以及我們為整個生態系統創造的不斷增長的價值。除了整體市場呈現更高的成長和更低的周期性之外，應用半導體 (Applied) 的波動性甚至低於同業。這得益於我們廣泛的產品組合以及我們在不同裝置領域的均衡佈局。丹將在他的章節中對此進行更詳細的闡述。

Moving to our near-term outlook. We see robust foundry/logic investment continuing. There is a strong commitment on the part of these customers to advance the leading edge as they get ready for demand related to the rollout of 5G. At the same time, we're also seeing healthy spending for specialty nodes to support growing demand from the IoT, communications, automotive, power and image sensor market.

接下來展望近期市場。我們預計晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域的投資將持續強勁成長。這些客戶致力於推動技術前沿，為迎接5G部署帶來的需求做好準備。同時，我們也看到針對特殊節點的支出也在穩定成長，以滿足物聯網、通訊、汽車、電源和影像感測器市場日益增長的需求。

Progression in the memory market is consistent with the view we've shared over the past several quarters. NAND appears to be in the early stages of recovery with prices rising and inventory levels down to 4 to 5 weeks. That's compared to 8 to 10 weeks this time last year. We also see a good setup for DRAM to recover. Encouraging signs include supplier and end market inventories that are starting to get back to normal levels, and prices appear to have bottomed. These leading indicators bode well for a pickup in investment by memory customers later in the year.

記憶體市場的發展趨勢與我們過去幾季的觀點一致。 NAND快閃記憶體似乎正處於復甦初期，價格上漲，庫存水準降至4至5週，而去年同期為8至10週。我們認為DRAM市場也具備良好的復甦前景。令人鼓舞的跡象包括供應商和終端市場的庫存開始恢復正常水平，價格似乎已經觸底。這些領先指標預示著今年稍後記憶體客戶的投資將會增加。

Overall, we like the way the market is shaping up for 2020 and beyond. We believe that our semiconductor business can deliver strong double-digit growth this year and feel very good about our longer-term opportunities.

整體而言，我們看好2020年及以後的市場發展趨勢。我們相信，今年半導體業務能夠實現強勁的兩位數成長，並對公司的長期發展機會充滿信心。

In display, there are no major changes to the outlook we provided last quarter. We expect FY '20 revenues to be similar to FY '19 as the industry navigates the bottom of this spending cycle. We still believe that display is an attractive adjacent market for Applied that provides good long-term growth opportunities. The business remains solidly profitable even as we make the necessary investments to ensure that we have the right portfolio of products ready for when the market picks up.

在顯示器業務方面，我們上季提供的展望並無重大變化。我們預計2020財年營收將與2019財年持平，因為整個產業正處於本輪消費週期的低谷期。我們仍然認為，顯示器業務對應用材料而言是一個極具吸引力的鄰近市場，能夠提供良好的長期成長機會。儘管我們正在進行必要的投資，以確保在市場回升時擁有合適的產品組合，但該業務依然保持著穩健的獲利能力。

Stepping back and looking at this year in its broader context, it's important to note that the overall electronics industry is in a period of expansion and diversification. Major new growth drivers, including IoT, big data and artificial intelligence, are layered on top of traditional demand for smartphones and PCs. As I look ahead, I strongly believe that the future will not be like the past. The emerging workloads that will shape the next era of computing require domain-specific approaches, new system architectures and new types of semiconductor devices. I believe that we need a new playbook for semiconductor design and manufacturing to deliver the power, performance and area cost improvements that will unlock the potential of AI and big data.

回顧今年，從更廣闊的視角來看，值得注意的是，整個電子產業正處於擴張和多元化發展時期。物聯網、大數據和人工智慧等新興成長動力，疊加在智慧型手機和個人電腦的傳統需求之上。展望未來，我堅信未來將與過去截然不同。塑造下一代運算的新興工作負載需要針對特定領域的解決方案、全新的系統架構和新型半導體裝置。我認為，我們需要一套全新的半導體設計和製造方案，以實現功耗、效能和麵積成本的顯著提升，從而釋放人工智慧和大數據的潛力。

At Applied, we've aligned our strategy and investments around this new playbook so that we can enable new system architectures, new devices and 3D structures the introduction of novel new materials, new advances in 2D geometric shrinks and new ways to connect chips together through advanced packaging. Applied has a unique portfolio of materials engineering capabilities and products to enable the new playbook. Getting these new technologies to market faster has never been more valuable, and this is a major emphasis across the company. For example, we're using advanced metrology sensors, data science and simulation to improve learning rates, speed up the transfer of new technologies from Applied's labs to customers' factories, and reduce the time it takes to optimize device performance, yield, output and cost. In addition, we have more engagement with a broader ecosystem than ever before, focused on accelerating innovation all the way from materials to systems.

在應用材料公司，我們已圍繞這一全新戰略調整了戰略和投資方向，以便能夠推動新型系統架構、新型裝置和三維結構的發展，引入新型材料，推進二維幾何尺寸縮小技術的新進展，並透過先進封裝技術實現晶片連接的新方式。應用材料公司擁有獨特的材料工程能力和產品組合，能夠協助實現這項全新策略。將這些新技術更快推向市場從未如此重要，這也是公司工作的重點。例如，我們正在利用先進的計量感測器、數據科學和模擬技術來提高學習效率，加快新技術從應用材料公司實驗室向客戶工廠的轉化，並縮短優化裝置性能、良率、產量和成本所需的時間。此外，我們與更廣泛的生態系統開展了前所未有的合作，致力於加速從材料到系統的全方位創新。

Our strategy is yielding results for our customers and Applied. Calendar 2019 was a new record for our foundry/logic revenues, and the current leading edge node transition further grows our opportunity. For an equivalent number of wafer starts, our available market increases by more than 10%. We're also generating record revenue from specialty markets where customers build their technology upon trailing geometries. For these customers, the innovation road map is driven by materials innovation rather than geometric scaling. Strength in leading edge, combined with healthy investments in specialty nodes, means that several of our leadership businesses, including metal deposition and epi, are delivering record revenue.

我們的策略正在為客戶和應用材料公司帶來豐碩成果。 2019 年，我們的晶圓代工/邏輯業務收入創下新紀錄，而當前前沿節點的轉型進一步擴大了我們的機會。在晶圓開工量不變的情況下，我們的市場規模成長超過 10%。此外，我們還在客戶基於特定幾何尺寸建立技術的特殊市場領域創造了創紀錄的收入。對這些客戶而言，創新路線圖的驅動力在於材料創新，而非幾何尺寸的縮放。尖端技術的優勢，加上對特殊節點的穩健投資，意味著我們包括金屬沉積和外延在內的多項核心業務都實現了創紀錄的收入。

At the same time, we continue building momentum in areas of the market where we still have plenty of room to grow. In the quarter, we secured major application wins for critical edge steps at both foundry/logic and memory customers. Our process diagnostics and control business delivered record quarterly revenue driven by strong adoption of our new optical wafer inspection system and continued strength in our leading e-beam products.

同時，我們在仍有巨大成長空間的市場領域持續保持強勁勢頭。本季度，我們在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片和記憶體客戶的關鍵邊緣製程環節都取得了重大應用訂單。由於採用新型光學晶圓檢測系統的廣泛應用以及領先的電子束產品的持續強勁表現，我們的製程診斷和控制業務實現了創紀錄的季度營收。

We're also making great progress in packaging. As the industry introduces increasingly sophisticated packaging approaches, our strategy has been to focus on addressing the most critical process steps. As a result, we've been steadily gaining market share. Our packaging business delivered record revenues in 2019 while winning well over 50% of our available market.

我們在包裝領域也取得了顯著進展。隨著產業不斷推出日益複雜的包裝方案，我們的策略是專注於解決最關鍵的製程步驟。因此，我們的市場份額穩步增長。 2019年，我們的包裝業務實現了創紀錄的收入，並贏得了超過50%的市場。

Another important growth factor for the company is our service business. Equipment maintenance is an attractive recurring revenue stream for Applied. And in calendar 2019, we added more than 2,000 systems to our installed base. As I've talked about before, we are finding new ways to deliver value through data-enabled services that accelerate customers' fab ramps and optimize the device performance, yield, output and cost in high-volume manufacturing. As we do this, we're increasing the number of installed base systems covered by long-term maintenance agreements. In the past 12 months alone, we have grown the number of systems covered by these agreements by nearly 15%.

公司另一個重要的成長動力來自我們的服務業務。設備維護是應用材料公司極具吸引力的經常性收入來源。 2019 年，我們的設備維護系統新增了 2000 多套。正如我之前提到的，我們正在探索透過數據驅動型服務創造價值的新途徑，這些服務能夠加速客戶的晶圓廠產能爬坡，並在大批量生產中優化裝置性能、良率、產量和成本。同時，我們也不斷增加長期維護協議所涵蓋的設備數量。僅在過去 12 個月中，此類協議覆蓋的系統數量就增加了近 15%。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, I will quickly summarize. While we're adapting our near-term plans in response to the coronavirus outbreak, our outlook for 2020 remains very positive. We believe we can drive strong double-digit growth in our semiconductor business this year and significantly outperform the market.

在將電話交給丹之前，我先做個簡要總結。雖然我們正在根據新冠疫情調整近期計劃，但我們對2020年的前景仍然非常樂觀。我們相信，今年我們的半導體業務能夠實現兩位數的強勁成長，並顯著跑贏大盤。

We also like the setup for 2021 and beyond. Our markets are better than ever with powerful new growth drivers still only in their early innings. Applied's opportunities have also never been better. We are uniquely positioned to enable the new playbook for semiconductor design and manufacturing while helping our customers accelerate innovation from materials to systems.

我們對2021年及以後的發展前景也十分看好。我們的市場比以往任何時候都更加繁榮，強勁的新成長動力仍處於起步階段。應用材料公司也迎來了前所未有的機會。我們擁有獨特的優勢，能夠引領半導體設計和製造的新潮流，同時幫助客戶加速從材料到系統的創新。

And now I'll turn the call over to Dan.

現在我把電話交給丹。

Thanks, Gary. Applied Materials returned to year-over-year growth in Q1, with revenue up 11% and non-GAAP EPS up 21% versus the same period last year. Revenue and gross margin exceeded the midpoint of our guidance. And earnings were above the high end of our range. Our revenue performance was driven by semiconductor systems, which was up 24% year-over-year. We generated nearly $1 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter and returned close to $400 million to shareholders.

謝謝，加里。應用材料公司第一季恢復年增，營收年增11%，非GAAP每股收益較去年同期成長21%。營收和毛利率都超過我們預期的中位數，獲利也高於預期範圍的上限。營收成長主要得益於半導體系統業務，該業務較去年同期成長24%。本季我們創造了近10億美元的經營現金流，並向股東返還了近4億美元。

Our business outlook calls for continued strength in Q2 and our second half. Our relative performance is especially strong. We outgrew the overall semi equipment market in calendar 2019, and we significantly outperformed our closest peers. Applied has made strong investments across our portfolio in recent years. And today, we are a larger and more resilient company that performs well in a variety of market conditions. One of Applied's unique attributes is our broad portfolio, which is more diversified across end markets and more balanced among semiconductor device types, including memory, leading edge and specialty nodes in logic and packaging. Our portfolio makes us more stable relative to our past and relative to our peers, the closest of which were 50% to 100% more volatile in the recent cycle. Today, our traditional strength in foundry/logic is apparent as we set new quarterly records for overall foundry/logic revenue as well as in metal deposition and process control systems sales. Our investments in memory have given us a balanced share profile, and this will enable us to continue to generate strong returns when spending recovers later this year.

我們的業務展望預計第二季及下半年將持續強勁成長。我們的相對業績表現尤為突出。 2019年全年，我們的成長速度超過了半導體設備市場的整體水平，並且顯著優於最接近的競爭對手。近年來，應用材料公司在各個業務領域都進行了強大的投資。如今，我們已成為一家規模更大、更具韌性的公司，能夠在各種市場環境下都表現出色。應用材料公司的獨特優勢之一在於其廣泛的產品組合，該組合在終端市場更加多元化，並且在半導體裝置類型方面也更加均衡，涵蓋了記憶體、邏輯和封裝領域的前沿節點和特殊節點。與以往相比，我們的產品組合使我們更加穩定，也優於競爭對手——在最近的周期中，最接近的競爭對手的波動性比我們高出50%到100%。如今，我們在晶圓代工/邏輯領域的傳統優勢顯而易見，我們在晶圓代工/邏輯業務的整體收入以及金屬沉積和製程控制系統銷售額方面均創下了新的季度紀錄。我們在記憶體領域的投資使我們的市場份額更加均衡，這將使我們能夠在今年稍後支出回升時繼續獲得強勁的回報。

A key pillar of our stability is our aftermarket business, which includes Applied Global Services and our 300-millimeter upgrades and refurbs. Our aftermarket revenue is a product of 3 drivers: installed base growth, the higher service intensity of new nodes, and our data-enabled service agreements. Our service agreements provide a higher return on investment for our customers and subscription-like recurring revenue for Applied. In Q1, AGS generated record revenue of nearly $1 billion. Our overall aftermarket business also set a new record in Q1 and has grown in every year since 2013.

我們穩定的關鍵支柱是售後市場業務，其中包括應用全球服務 (Applied Global Services) 以及我們的 300 毫米升級和翻新服務。我們的售後市場收入主要來自三大驅動因素：裝機量成長、新節點更高的服務需求以及我們基於數據驅動的服務協議。我們的服務協議為客戶帶來更高的投資回報，並為應用程式公司帶來類似訂閱的經常性收入。第一季度，應用全球服務 (AGS) 創下近 10 億美元的營收紀錄。我們的整體售後市場業務在第一季也創下新紀錄，並且自 2013 年以來每年都保持成長。

Against this backdrop, we're pleased to be making further progress towards the acquisition of Kokusai Electric, which has an outstanding equipment business, a very large installed base and a highly talented management team. During the quarter, we received regulatory approvals from Japan and Korea. And we grew our cash position by over $350 million as we prepare for the transaction. As a reminder, upon close, we plan to prioritize our free cash flow towards repaying the term loan we're using to help finance the transaction. We expect to limit buybacks until we've repaid the loan.

在此背景下，我們很高興在收購國際電氣（Kokusai Electric）方面取得進一步進展。國際電氣擁有卓越的設備業務、龐大的裝機量和一支才華橫溢的管理團隊。本季度，我們獲得了日本和韓國監管機構的批准。同時，為交易的順利進行，我們的現金儲備增加了超過3.5億美元。在此提醒，交易完成後，我們將優先利用自由現金流償還用於此交易融資的定期貸款。在償還貸款之前，我們將限制股票回購。

Next, I'll comment on the near-term environment and provide our Q2 guidance. Since the middle of January, our business continuity team has been working around the clock, assessing the needs and capabilities of our employees, customers and suppliers. I'm impressed by the decisive action and compassion being demonstrated by our people across the globe. Our Q2 guidance ranges are wider than usual, and our revenue forecast reflects all of the risk factors we can see today.

接下來，我將談談近期市場環境並提供第二季業績指引。自一月中旬以來，我們的業務連續性團隊一直在日以繼夜地工作，評估員工、客戶和供應商的需求和能力。我對全球員工展現的果斷行動和人文關懷深感敬佩。我們第二季的業績指引範圍比以往更寬，營收預測也反映了我們目前所能預見的所有風險因素。

In Q2, we expect our overall revenue to be $4.34 billion, plus or minus $200 million, which would be up by about 23% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP earnings to be $1.04 per share, plus or minus $0.06. The midpoint would be up nearly 50% year-over-year. Within the outlook, we expect semiconductor systems revenue to be around $3.05 billion, up by around 40% year-over-year. Our services revenue should be about $955 million. And display revenue should be around $310 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin of around 45.4%, which would be up nearly 2 points year-over-year. And non-GAAP OpEx should be around $820 million.

我們預計第二季總營收為43.4億美元，上下浮動2億美元，年增約23%。我們預期非GAAP每股收益為1.04美元，上下浮動0.06美元，中位數將年增近50%。展望中，我們預期半導體系統營收約30.5億美元，年增約40%。服務營收約9.55億美元。顯示器營收約3.1億美元。我們預期非GAAP毛利率約45.4%，年增近2個百分點。非GAAP營運支出約8.2億美元。

Finally, I will give you some additional color on how our risk-adjusted Q2 guidance compares to strong underlying demand for our products and services. Absent the near-term risks, our revenue guidance would have been about $300 million higher at the midpoint or up about 30% year-over-year and AGS revenue would have exceeded $1 billion. While the situation remains fluid, we believe we can address the vast majority of our unmet Q2 demand in Q3 and Q4 and deliver strong growth for the year.

最後，我將進一步闡述我們經風險調整後的第二季業績預期與我們產品和服務強勁的潛在需求之間的比較。若不考慮近期風險，我們的營收預期中位數將比預期高出約3億美元，年增約30%，AGS營收也將超過10億美元。儘管情況仍不明朗，但我們相信能夠在第三季和第四季滿足第二季絕大部分未滿足的需求，並實現全年強勁成長。

In summary, we are seeing very strong demand for our products, solutions and services. We have a broad, diverse and balanced portfolio that is delivering strong relative performance and stability in a variety of market conditions. As Gary outlined, the semiconductor industry is enjoying a new wave of growth, and the equipment industry is growing along with our customers. For Applied's part, we're investing in new products and solutions that will accelerate the new playbook and position Applied Materials to deliver superior performance, stable growth and shareholder returns.

總而言之，我們看到市場對我們的產品、解決方案和服務有著非常強勁的需求。我們擁有廣泛、多元且均衡的產品組合，能夠在各種市場環境下保持優異的相對績效和穩定性。正如Gary所概述的，半導體產業正迎來新一輪成長，而設備產業也與我們的客戶共同成長。就應用材料公司而言，我們正在投資開發新產品和解決方案，以加速新策略的實施，並使應用材料公司能夠實現卓越的業績、穩定的成長和股東回報。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

麥克，現在開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，丹。 （操作員指令）操作員，請開始。

And our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 樂團的 C.J. Muse。

Apologies for the noise in the background. I guess first question, can you speak to gross margin leverage as you look forward, particularly around an accelerating service business combined with -- on the tool side, where you are on mix-wise to leadership versus growth and some of the new products as they layer in? I would love to hear your thoughts around that.

抱歉背景有點吵。我的第一個問題是，您能否談談您未來對毛利率槓桿的影響，尤其是在服務業務加速成長的情況下，以及在工具方面，您目前在產品組合中如何平衡領先優勢和成長潛力，以及一些新產品如何逐步融入市場？我很想聽聽您的看法。

Thanks, C.J. As we look at gross margins, and I think it's important to look at the evolution of the business over time. We're a different business today. We're driving a significant amount of growth in foundry/logic, but we're also a more diversified business than we've been in the past. If you were to go back a handful of years, you would have seen us spike highly in the foundry business from a share perspective. And the other 3 device types were mid-teens. And today, we're a very balanced portfolio. And I think that served us really well in 2019, both from a revenue volatility standpoint significantly less than the peers in the industry. But also from a gross margin standpoint, the company has performed pretty well in the most recent downturn. As we go forward, foundry/logic is going to continue to be a strong market for the industry. The trend line on foundry/logic is up and to the right. Every quarter won't be a record, but we will see an upward trending market, less volatility and higher highs and higher lows.

謝謝C.J.。當我們審視毛利率時，我認為重要的是要了解業務隨時間推移的發展演變。如今，我們的業務與以往大不相同。我們在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域實現了顯著成長，同時業務也比以往更加多元化。如果回顧幾年前，你會發現我們在晶圓代工業務的市佔率曾出現大幅飆升，而其他三種裝置類型的市佔率則只有十幾個百分點。如今，我們的業務組合非常均衡。我認為這在2019年對我們大有裨益，不僅收入波動性遠低於業內同行，而且毛利率方面，公司在最近的經濟低迷時期也表現得相當出色。展望未來，晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域仍將是該行業的強勁市場。晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域的成長趨勢線呈上升趨勢。每個季度都不會創下紀錄，但我們會看到市場呈上升趨勢，波動性降低，價格高點和低點都會更高。

Embedded within that strength in foundry/logic is growth in specialty nodes and technologies as edge devices proliferate. This is a great business for us, a strong driver of cash flow, strong driver of operating margins. You're also seeing us in the broad set of markets, drive businesses like etch over time. We are making significant share gains into the NAND market into -- followed by DRAM and then foundry/logic. And the company is performing really, really well, growing that market share. And we're going to continue to do that going forward. And so you see an evolution and profile change of the business. You also see our services business growing structurally larger. It's a great source of stable revenues, cash flows and operating margin for the business. And so we're a broader, bigger, more resilient business and it's going to change the profile of the business over time.

在晶圓代工/邏輯領域的優勢基礎上，隨著邊緣元件的普及，特種節點和技術也實現了成長。這對我們來說是一項非常重要的業務，是現金流量和營業利潤率的強勁驅動力。您還會看到我們涉足更廣泛的市場，例如蝕刻等業務。我們在NAND快閃記憶體市場取得了顯著的份額成長，隨後是DRAM，最後是晶圓代工/邏輯領域。公司業績非常出色，市佔率不斷擴大。我們將繼續保持這股勢頭。因此，您可以看到業務的演變和格局的變化。同時，我們的服務業務也在結構性地成長。它是公司穩定收入、現金流量和營業利潤率的重要來源。因此，我們是一家業務範圍更廣、規模更大、更具韌性的公司，這將隨著時間的推移改變公司的業務格局。

As you look at gross margin for the rest of this year, our semi systems business on a half-over-half progression looks fairly linear. And then you see a growing services business into the back half of the year and a growing display business into the back half of the year. And all 3 of those business look to -- look positioned to grow well into 2021. And so where we're guiding Q2, we expect to be around those levels for the rest of 2020 against this mix profile as we see into the back half of the year. Are we ever satisfied with gross margins as they exist today? No. Are we looking to continually optimize the performance of this company and drive as much value for our shareholders? Absolutely. And we're going to continue to drive as hard as possible at delivering that value. But I think it gives you a good sense of where gross margin is going to go for the rest of this year and some of the drivers of our business that deliver that result.

展望今年剩餘時間的毛利率，我們的半導體系統業務在下半年呈現較線性的成長態勢。此外，服務業務和顯示器業務在下半年也將維持成長。這三項業務都有望在2021年實現良好成長。因此，根據我們對第二季的預期，我們預計在2020年剩餘時間裡，毛利率將維持在類似水平，並延續下半年的成長動能。我們對目前的毛利率水準感到滿意嗎？不。我們是否致力於持續優化公司業績，為股東創造最大價值？答案是肯定的。我們將繼續竭盡全力實現這一目標。我認為這足以讓您對今年剩餘時間的毛利率走勢以及推動我們業務成長的關鍵因素有所了解。

Very helpful. I guess as a quick follow-up. Can you speak to, I guess, the improved visibility that you have to memory? And kind of what are the guideposts that gives you the confidence on the second half hand off from foundry over to memory to sustain the growth through the end of the next year?

非常有幫助。我想快速跟進一下。您能否談談您對記憶體業務的可見性提升？以及，是什麼指導原則讓您有信心在下半年從代工廠過渡到記憶體業務，從而維持成長到明年年底？

Thanks, C.J. I think the best way I describe the profile and shape of the business in 2020, we're going to continue to see strength in foundry/logic throughout the year. And we're seeing early signs of memory recovery today. I think ultimately what happens in 2020 is really going to depend on the magnitude of the memory recovery later in the year. We posted a really strong fiscal Q1. Our guiding to fiscal Q2 we see as very strong. And we see that strength continuing into the back part of the year. Again, we're going to be relatively balanced half-over-half in our systems business. And the ultimate shape of that systems business and strength in the back part of the calendar year is going to be a function of what we've been saying for a couple of quarters now, which is it's going to depend on the magnitude of the memory recovery later in the year. But right now, we feel really good given what we see, fairly balanced half-over-half from a semi systems standpoint. And I think there's an opportunity to do better in our fiscal Q4 and our fiscal Q1 as the memory recovery begins to accelerate.

謝謝C.J.。我認為描述2020年業務概況和格局的最佳方式是，我們將全年持續看到晶圓代工/邏輯業務的強勁表現。目前，我們已經看到了記憶體業務復甦的早期跡象。我認為2020年的最終走向將取決於記憶體業務在下半年復甦的幅度。我們公佈了非常強勁的第一財季業績。我們對第二財季的業績預期也非常樂觀。我們預計這種強勁勢頭將延續到下半年。再次強調，我們的系統業務將保持相對均衡的局面。而係統業務在下半年的最終格局和強勁程度，正如我們過去幾季一直強調的那樣，將取決於記憶體業務在下半年復甦的幅度。但就目前而言，鑑於我們所看到的，從半導體系統的角度來看，我們感到非常樂觀，業務將保持相對均衡的局面。我認為隨著記憶力恢復速度的加快，我們在第四財季和第一財季有機會做得更好。

Yes, C.J., this is Gary. I'll add a little bit more color. Certainly, what we see for the year is foundry/logic, NAND, DRAM pretty balanced. And relative to the memory recovery and timing, we talked about the supply and demand, the inventory levels on the prepared remarks, and then obviously we also have demand signals coming from our customers. So that's really what is driving our comments relative to the way the year is going to shape out and also the balance in all of those different segments.

是的，C.J.，我是Gary。我再補充一些細節。就今年而言，我們預計晶圓代工/邏輯晶片、NAND快閃記憶體和DRAM市場將保持相對平衡。至於內存市場的復甦和時序問題，我們在準備的發言稿中已經談到了供需關係和庫存水平，當然，我們還有來自客戶的需求信號。這些因素共同決定了我們對今年市場走向以及各個細分市場平衡的預測。

Thanks, C.J.

謝謝，C.J.

Our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Good job on results and guidance. I have a question on display business, flattish outlook, not super exciting this year. Gary, does this make you look at some of the disruptive products in the R&D pipeline, like the [evaporation] or the inkjet tools differently? And if you can share the long-term view on display market.

業績和指引做得很好。我有個關於顯示器業務的問題，前景比較平淡，今年沒什麼特別令人興奮的地方。 Gary，這是否讓你對研發管線中的一些顛覆性產品，例如蒸發式或噴墨工具，有了不同的看法？能否分享一下你對顯示器市場的長期展望？

So display, we still see as a very attractive adjacent market for the company. If you look at the growth that we've seen over the last few years, it's up significantly. I think we're around $0.5 billion. The business was up over $2 billion, down a little bit this year, but still a very, very attractive market. And certainly our near-term guidance is impacted also because of the coronavirus. Some of our customers are in areas that are impacted. And so that reduced our guidance in terms of Q2. But as Dan said, we see the second half of the year being very positive. And we also -- if you think about visual experiences and the way they differentiate different mobile devices or all of the trillion connected devices that will be happening -- will be growing over the next several years, we see that, that market is going to continue to grow. So 2021, we certainly see the business being up a fair amount over what we see in 2020. The capital intensity is rising as new technologies are adopted. So we see a good opportunity in our core business. And certainly just like we do in semi, we're very focused on enabling customer road maps and enabling new structures, new materials for our customers. So we have those investments that we're also making in terms of display. We're making good progress on those -- on the pipeline of those new opportunities. We're not going to announce anything here on the call today, but we're still very optimistic overall about the business and also those new opportunities.

因此，我們仍然認為顯示技術是公司一個極具吸引力的鄰近市場。回顧過去幾年的成長，我們可以看到顯著的提升。我認為我們目前的市場規模約為5億美元。該業務成長超過20億美元，雖然今年略有下滑，但仍是一個極具吸引力的市場。當然，由於新冠疫情的影響，我們的近期業績指引也受到了一定程度的衝擊。我們的一些客戶位於受疫情影響的地區，因此我們下調了第二季的業績指引。但正如丹所說，我們預計下半年的業績將非常樂觀。此外，考慮到視覺體驗及其在區分不同行動裝置或未來數兆連網設備方面的作用，我們認為未來幾年該市場將會持續成長。因此，我們預計2021年該業務的業績將比2020年有相當大的成長。隨著新技術的採用，資本密集度也不斷提高。因此，我們看到了核心業務的良好發展機會。當然，就像我們在半導體領域所做的那樣，我們非常注重幫助客戶制定發展路線圖，並為他們提供新的結構和材料。因此，我們在顯示領域也進行了投資。我們在這些新機會的開發方面取得了良好的進展。我們今天不會在電話會議上宣布任何消息，但我們對整體業務以及這些新機會仍然非常樂觀。

Great. A quick one for Dan. Dan, on OpEx, I know you don't like to peg OpEx to a ratio. How should we think about the spending for the rest of the year?

好的。問丹一個問題。丹，關於營運支出，我知道你不喜歡用比率來衡量營運支出。我們該如何考慮今年剩餘時間的支出呢？

Yes, I think in the current environment, $820 million a quarter feels like about the right level. You'll obviously see us continue to drive discipline into our spend. I think you've seen that over time. Over the last handful of years, operating leverage has delivered some pretty significant reductions of OpEx as a percent of sales. And right now, R&D as a percent of OpEx is at an all-time high for the company. So I think the company is being very disciplined from a discretionary spend standpoint and investing right amount of money to capture the significant opportunities we see in front of us. But we'll continue to monitor those opportunities and guide one quarter at a time, but this level feels about right.

是的，我認為在當前環境下，每季8.2億美元的支出水準比較合適。顯然，我們會繼續嚴格控制支出。我想您也已經看到了這一點。過去幾年，營運槓桿效應顯著降低了營運支出佔銷售額的比例。目前，研發支出佔營運支出的比例也達到了公司歷史新高。因此，我認為公司在可自由支配支出方面非常謹慎，並投入適量的資金來抓住我們眼前的重要機會。我們會繼續關注這些機遇，並逐季進行指導，但目前這個水平感覺比較合適。

Thanks, Atif.

謝謝你，阿提夫。

Yes, I guess I would add one thing to that. I think we're not emotional over the investments we're making. We make investments where we think we can have -- drive shareholder value. So that's basically the way we look at this. We have -- we do have a point of view. I think as a leader, you need to have a point of view and courage in terms of how you drive your business. We believe that this business is going to be fundamentally bigger based on AI, big data, IoT, layering on top of mobile, social media and PCs. So we see that business is going to be larger. And the new playbook that I talked about in the prepared remarks for AI and big data is absolutely essential as Moore's Law -- the classic Moore's Law is slowing. So we see tremendous opportunities. Applied is in the best position if you look at the 5 aspects of that new playbook, and we're going to make those investments. And as I said earlier, 2021 shapes up really well for us. Many different aspects come together, and we definitely see great growth opportunities going forward. But we also are not emotional about how we make those investments, so we're not married to anything.

是的，我想補充一點。我認為我們對正在進行的投資並非出於情緒化。我們投資的重點在於提升股東價值。這基本上就是我們看待這個問題的方式。我們有自己的觀點。我認為身為領導者，你需要有自己的觀點和勇氣來推動業務發展。我們相信，基於人工智慧、大數據、物聯網以及行動、社群媒體和個人電腦等技術的融合，這項業務的規模將會從根本上擴大。因此，我們預見這項業務將會更加龐大。我在準備的演講稿中提到的關於人工智慧和大數據的新策略至關重要，因為經典的摩爾定律正在放緩。所以我們看到了巨大的機會。如果你檢視一下新策略的五個方面，Applied 處於最佳位置，我們將進行相應的投資。正如我之前所說，2021 年對我們來說前景非常樂觀。諸多因素匯聚在一起，我們無疑看到了未來巨大的成長機會。但我們在進行這些投資時也不會感情用事，所以我們不會對任何事情抱持執念。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Congratulations on the solid results. Gary, you've given us a lot of sort of qualitative guidance on semi cap equipment spending for this year. I'm wondering if you can give us a sense of what you think the overall WFE market grows in calendar year ‘20. But perhaps more importantly, how important is China in your mind to that growth? And can you help kind of profile the Chinese spend between sort of memory, foundry/logic? I've got to imagine a lot of the trailing edge logic stuff you were talking about in your prepared comments is situated in China, but how do we think about that?

祝賀你們取得如此優異的成績。 Gary，你為我們提供了許多關於今年半導體設備支出的定性指導。我想請你談談你對2020年整個WFE市場成長的看法。但或許更重要的是，你認為中國市場對此成長有多重要？你能否分析一下中國在記憶體、代工/邏輯晶片方面的支出？我猜你在事先準備好的評論中提到的許多前沿邏輯晶片都位於中國，但我們該如何看待這一點呢？

Yes. Thanks, John. This is Dan. I'll jump in and take that. So let's break it up into pieces. Let's first talk about WFE in 2020 and the growth rate over '19 and then I'll come back and talk a little bit about China and what we see in that market embedded in that overall growth rate.

是的，謝謝約翰。我是丹，我來接手。我們分成幾個部分來討論。首先，我們來談談2020年WFE的情況以及相對於2019年的成長率，然後再回來談談中國市場，以及我們從這個整體成長率中看到的中國市場因素。

So we think 2020 is going to be a really strong year for the industry. We feel good about that. The ultimate question around growth rate is a function of what you use as a starting reference point for 2019. So I'm going to break this up piece by piece. Hopefully, I can shed some light and be helpful to clear up, I think, some of the confusion that exists in the market. So what's important is, is we establish a reference point for 2019. And then we talk about growth off of that.

所以我們認為2020年對整個產業來說將會是強勁的一年。我們對此充滿信心。關於成長率的最終問題取決於你用什麼作為2019年的參考基準。因此，我將逐一解釋。希望我能闡明一些問題，並有助於消除市場上存在的一些困惑。所以重要的是，我們要確定一個2019年的參考基準。然後我們再以此為基礎來討論成長。

So we know the number for 2019 WFE. It's not mid-40s. I think one advantage we have is we've got a very broad portfolio, and we've got insight into all the different device types. And that gives us some unique insights in terms of market sizing. So let me share with you what we're seeing, and hopefully we can help out.

所以我們知道2019年WFE（無線終端設備）的數量。它不是40多台。我認為我們的一個優勢是擁有非常廣泛的產品組合，並且對各種不同類型的設備都有深入的了解。這使我們在市場規模方面擁有一些獨特的見解。所以，讓我跟大家分享我們觀察到的情況，希望能有所幫助。

2018 was 56 billion. That's according to Gartner. It's a good number. It's validated by a third party. So 2018 was 56 billion. Off of that number, we see 2019 as down 10% to 12%, and that's the baseline we're using for 2020 growth. We see 2020 as a market up 10%, 15% based on everything we see and likely at the high end of that range, given the conversations we're having with customers.

2018 年的消費量為 560 億美元。這是 Gartner 的數據，相當可靠，也得到了第三方機構的驗證。因此，2018 年的消費量為 560 億美元。基於此，我們預期 2019 年的消費量將下降 10% 至 12%，這也是我們預測 2020 年成長的基準線。根據我們目前掌握的所有信息，我們預計 2020 年的市場成長率將達到 10% 至 15%，考慮到我們與客戶的溝通，這個數字很可能接近上限。

So while it's too early to know 2020 with precision, 2019 is very clear as a baseline. So hopefully now the baseline for 2019 is clear. Off of that baseline, we're likely up 15%. We expect to significantly outgrow the market with our semi systems business, and it's not one device type.

因此，雖然現在精確預測2020年還為時過早，但2019年是一個非常明確的基準。希望現在2019年的基準線已經清晰。基於這個基準線，我們預期成長15%。我們預計半導體系統業務的成長將顯著超過市場平均水平，而且這並非指單一類型的裝置。

Coming to China embedded in that outlook. As we think about 2019 and where that ended, we see that market as about $6.5 billion, and we see growth off of that market of about $2 billion to $3 billion. Embedded within that if you take a look at that $2 billion to $3 billion, I would say 1/3 of it is 200-millimeter trailing node foundry/logic, 2/3 of it is 300-millimeter business. Of the 2/3 of its 300-millimeter business, it's roughly evenly split between trailing node foundry/logic and memory. And there's balance within the memory profile. And so I think that gives you a sense of what we're thinking for the China market.

進入中國市場正是基於這樣的展望。回顧2019年，我們認為中國市場規模約為65億美元，並預計未來將成長20億至30億美元。在這20億至30億美元中，我認為三分之一是200毫米製程的晶片代工/邏輯晶片，三分之二是300毫米製程的業務。在300毫米製程業務的三分之二中，晶片代工/邏輯晶片和記憶體大致平分秋色。記憶體業務的組成也較為均衡。因此，我認為以上內容能夠讓您了解我們對中國市場的規劃。

And if I were to take a step back and distill down what we're seeing, we see consistent, steady ecosystem building, investments in technology road maps with modest capacity additions. And even if we look at the $2 billion to $3 billion of incremental spend that we're seeing in China and -- domestic China, and we take a look at what it costs to build a new memory factory, $7 billion to $8 billion, or a new foundry/logic factory of $15 billion to $18 billion, even embedded within that $2 billion to $3 billion of growth, it's modest capacity additions. And part of that spend is 200-millimeter. Part of it is 300-millimeter with diversification across device types. Hopefully, that helps shed some light on both the overall WFE market, John, as well as what we're seeing in China.

如果我退後一步，提煉一下我們所看到的，我們會發現生態系統正在穩步發展，對技術路線圖的投資不斷增加，產能成長也較為溫和。即使我們只看中國國內新增的20億到30億美元的支出，再看看新建一座記憶體工廠需要70億到80億美元，新建一座晶圓廠/邏輯工廠需要150億到180億美元，即便這20億到30億美元的增長中包含了這些新增支出，產能增長仍然有限。而且，這些支出一部分用於200毫米工藝，一部分用於300毫米工藝，並涵蓋了多種裝置類型。約翰，希望這些資訊能幫助你更了解整個WFE市場，以及我們在中國看到的情況。

No, that's great color. And then quickly as my follow-up, I want to make sure I heard you correctly. I think you said in the prepared comments that for the full fiscal year '20, you expect flat panel to be roughly flattish year-over-year, which would kind of imply a second half run rate of close to $1 billion, if not slightly over. I'm just kind of curious why you're confident about that. Is it mainly because the 300 million cushion you have in the April guidance for the coronavirus is mostly coming out of flat panel? Or am I thinking about the math right on that?

不，顏色很棒。然後我想快速確認一下我是否理解正確。我記得您在準備好的評論中提到，預計2020財年平板顯示器業務將與去年同期基本持平，這意味著下半年的營收將接近10億美元，甚至可能略高於10億美元。我很好奇您為什麼對此如此有信心。主要是因為您在4月份的業績指引中預留的3億美元應對新冠疫情的緩衝資金主要來自平板顯示器業務嗎？還是我的計算完全正確？

Yes, so let me start with the math. You are thinking about the math correctly. We've had a point of view now for a couple of quarters that revenue in 2020 in the display business is going to be similar to what we saw in 2019. Everything we see in the market today increases the confidence we have in terms of that outlook, so no change to the full year guidance.

是的，那我就先從數學說起。你的思路是對的。過去幾季我們一直認為，2020年顯示器業務的營收將與2019年持平。目前市場上的所有跡像都增強了我們對這一前景的信心，因此全年業績預期保持不變。

As we look at the risks we've assessed as part of the coronavirus, we think we're taking a -- well, first of all, we think risk is temporary, and we think there is no change to our full year outlook, fiscal year outlook as a result of that. And so we think we're being prudent in derisking our guide by about 300 million, and we see recovery of those revenues in Q3, Q4 as we unpack the 300 million across our reporting segments. We talked about services would have been our first billion-dollar quarter, but we've derisked it based on the virus. In terms of rank order of the 300 million, first, most impacted is our semi systems business, followed by our display business, followed by our service business.

考慮到我們評估的新冠病毒疫情風險，我們認為－首先，我們認為風險是暫時的，因此不會影響我們全年和本財年的業績展望。所以我們謹慎地將業績指引下調了約3億美元，並預計隨著這3億美元的收入在各業務板塊的逐步實現，這些收入將在第三季和第四季恢復。我們之前提到過，服務業務原本有望成為我們首個營收突破10億美元的季度，但鑑於疫情的影響，我們已下調了其風險。就這3億美元的收入而言，受影響最大的是半導體系統業務，其次是顯示器業務，最後是服務業務。

So if you put the pieces together without being point specific on any one of those, I think you get a sense of how much we've derisked our services business. Display will be incrementally more than that. And semi systems will be incrementally more than that. The sum of those 3 will equal 300 million. Our thesis around display being -- or I'm sorry, TVs being a recovery -- going through a digestion period in the market. You'll see recovery of the handset market. That framing of the profile of spend in display still holds. We see both markets looking good into 2021, and we think we return to nice growth profile in the back part of the year and into 2021.

所以，如果你把這些因素綜合起來，而不具體討論其中任何一個方面，我想你就能感受到我們降低了服務業務的風險程度。顯示器業務的支出將略高於這個數字。半導體系統業務的支出也將略高於這個數字。這三項加起來將達到3億美元。我們關於顯示器業務（或更準確地說，是電視業務）復甦的論點是，它正處於市場消化期。你會看到手機市場復甦。我們對顯示器業務支出的這種預測仍然有效。我們預計這兩個市場在2021年都將保持良好勢頭，並且我們認為在今年下半年和2021年將恢復良好的成長動能。

Great color. Congratulations again, guys.

顏色真棒！再次恭喜你們！

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

And Dan, again, thanks for the terrific color on all the industry stuff. Two-part question, number one is based on your guidance of roughly 3 billion semis and around this range, maybe plus or minus 200 million for the rest of fiscal '20, it looks like when I look at your last cyclical peak in April 2018, you guys did about 3 billion, and then the sales trailed off. I understand that the SSG now with semi systems, there's probably some shift in numbers, but overall, it's like you're consistent this $3 billion sales number for the rest of the fiscal year. I'm kind of curious from your vantage point, how much of this growth versus the prior peak number was the capital intensity going up versus AMAT's specific share gains?

丹，再次感謝你對產業動態的精彩解讀。我有兩個問題，第一個問題是基於你之前給出的2020財年剩餘時間半導體銷量約為30億套的預測，以及可能在此範圍內上下浮動2億套的情況。回顧你們2018年4月的上一個週期性高峰，當時你們的銷售量也達到了30億套左右，之後銷量開始下滑。我知道現在半導體系統業務（SSG）已經涵蓋了半導體系統，所以銷售數據可能會有所變化，但總體而言，你們似乎會保持30億美元的銷售目標，直到本財年結束。我很好奇，從你的角度來看，與之前的峰值相比，此次增長中有多少是由於資本密集度的提高，又有多少是由於AMAT的市場份額增長？

And then the second quick housekeeping question, on your color on China if I remember right, I think you said 200-millimeter is going to be 1/3 of your number, which is about $3 billion for China WFE. I'm kind of surprised it's that high, given the fact that last year if I remember right, China 200-millimeter was only 0.5 billion. Why is it jumping up so much this year?

第二個小問題，關於你對中國市場的預測，如果我沒記錯的話，你提到200毫米膠片電影的預算將占到你預測的三分之一，也就是中國WFE市場大約30億美元。考慮到去年中國200毫米膠片電影的預算只有5億美元，我對這個數字感到有些驚訝。為什麼今年的預算成長如此之快？

Yes. Thanks, Krish. So taking the second question first, we've been talking about specialty nodes. We've been talking about trailing node geometries. We've been talking about billions of edge devices and intelligence on the edge and sensor technologies that are supporting the build-out of the Internet of Things. And we see trailing node geometries as one place that China can, in the near term, play a strong role in helping to build out their ecosystem in a disciplined way. And so it fits in with the framing that we've been talking about technology development, ecosystem development and disciplined investments to support that ecosystem from a capacity standpoint. And so it's very consistent from a framing standpoint.

是的，謝謝，Krish。先回答第二個問題，我們一直在討論專用節點，討論後置節點結構，討論數十億邊緣設備、邊緣智慧以及支援物聯網建構的感測器技術。我們認為，在後置節點結構方面，中國可以在短期內發揮重要作用，以有條不紊的方式建構其生態系統。這與我們一直在討論的技術發展、生態系統建設以及從能力角度支持該生態系統的有條不紊的投資框架相吻合。因此，從框架的角度來看，這是非常一致的。

Yes, I think on the -- maybe I can add something on this part of the question. The -- if you look at this market, IoT, communication, auto, power devices, sensors, it has a very, very high growth rate. And innovation is driven by materials innovation. So 2018 was the first year machines generated more data than people. In the next 5 years, the forecast are the machines will generate 10x more data than people. And when you go to CES, you see everything getting smarter. So this market is a big market.

是的，關於這個問題，我或許可以補充一些內容。如果你觀察一下物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力設備和感測器等市場，你會發現它們的成長率非常非常高。而創新是由材料創新所驅動的。 2018年是機器產生的資料量首次超過人類的一年。預計未來五年，機器產生的資料量將是人類的十倍。在CES展會上，你會看到一切都在變得更聰明。所以，這是一個巨大的市場。

I think specifically to your question in China, your numbers are roughly correct. Our numbers are a little bit different, but roughly correct that there's a lot of growth in China in these areas and they can build those types of devices. And so if you look at a trillion connected devices at the edge by 2030, the explosion of data and really the transformation of many industries, health care, education, you see retail, transportation, all of these areas growing very fast. And the companies that are growing quickly from a market cap standpoint are companies that are data-centric companies.

我認為，就您提出的中國問題而言，您的數據大致正確。我們的數據略有不同，但大致也表明，中國在這些領域發展迅猛，並且有能力製造這類設備。因此，如果您展望到2030年，全球將有萬億台邊緣設備互聯，數據將呈爆炸式增長，許多行業也將因此發生變革，例如醫療保健、教育、零售、交通運輸等等，所有這些領域都將快速發展。而從市值角度來看，那些快速成長的公司都是以數據為中心的公司。

So again, I think that's really what we're seeing is this explosion of data, and this market is a very big market. Applied has a very strong position. We put together in the last year a team of great leaders across the company for 300-millimeter and smaller wafer sizes. I personally am meeting many of the CEOs and R&D leaders in this ecosystem. And we have really, really strong momentum. One example is one particular large customer where we won 2/3 of the available opportunities in a market that is very, very sticky over a long period of time. So I think you're correct in that maybe it's surprising that the market is growing like that, but we think this is really the early innings of these particular markets, IoT, communication, auto, power and sensors from a growth perspective. And it's -- Applied has a really great position inside that market.

所以，我認為我們現在看到的正是數據爆炸性成長，而這個市場規模非常龐大。應用材料公司擁有非常強大的市場地位。去年，我們組建了一支由公司各部門優秀領導者組成的團隊，專門負責300毫米及更小尺寸的晶圓。我自己也與這個生態系統中的許多執行長和研發負責人進行了會面。我們目前的發展勢頭非常強勁。舉個例子，我們贏得了某大客戶三分之二的訂單，而這個市場在很長一段時間內都非常穩定。所以，我認為您說得對，市場如此快速成長可能令人驚訝，但我們認為，從成長的角度來看，物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器等特定市場目前還處於早期階段。應用材料公司在這個市場中擁有非常有利的地位。

And Krish, coming back to the first part of your question where you talked about growth and how much of it is share gain versus capital intensity, I think it's important to take a step back and set a context around how the company has evolved over time. If we were to go back a handful of years, we were strong in foundry, over 20%, and around mid-teens in all 3 other device types. Today, we're balanced across all of the device types. So the company has made steady progress on that front over the last handful of years since Gary has took over the company.

Krish，回到你問題的第一部分，你談到了成長以及其中有多少是市場份額的提升，又有多少是資本密集成長。我認為有必要回顧一下公司的發展歷程。幾年前，我們在晶圓代工領域實力雄厚，佔比超過20%，而其他三種裝置類型的佔比都在15%左右。如今，我們在所有裝置類型上的佔比都比較均衡。自從Gary接管公司以來，公司在過去幾年在這方面取得了穩步進展。

Your specific question referenced a time period in 2018. We were high teens, a little over 19% from an overall WFE share standpoint that year. Today, now we're -- I'm sorry, 2019, we were a little over -- probably a little over 20% in 2019. So we feel really good about the progress we've made in significantly outperforming the peers and the market in 2019. So you definitely see some share accretion playing out in the current environment.

您提出的問題具體指的是2018年。那一年，我們的市佔率在19%以上（從整體WFE市佔率來看）。而現在，抱歉，應該是2019年，我們的市佔率略高於20%。因此，我們對2019年取得的顯著進步感到非常滿意，我們的業績顯著優於同業和市場。所以，在當前環境下，我們的市佔率確實在不斷成長。

The second thing I would say, our thesis around increasing capital intensity, you see it in the foundry/logic. You see it in NAND, you see it in DRAM. That thesis of increasing capital intensity over time is firmly intact. We know our customers are investing a lot of money in WFE. And so their profitability, WFE as a percent of their profitability, has come down since 2012. WFE as a percent of EBITDA in memory and foundry/logic is down 25% over the last half a dozen years. And so they're spending a lot, but they're making a lot of money. And so the health of our customers is as good as it's ever been.

第二點我想說的是，我們關於資本密集度不斷提高的論點，在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域、NAND快閃記憶體領域以及DRAM領域都能看到。隨著時間的推移，資本密集度不斷提高的論點依然成立。我們知道客戶在晶圓廠設備（WFE）方面投入了大量資金。因此，自2012年以來，WFE佔其利潤的百分比有所下降。過去六年裡，WFE佔記憶體和晶圓代工/邏輯晶片EBITDA的百分比下降了25%。所以，他們投入了很多，但也賺了很多錢。因此，我們客戶的經營狀況一如既往地好。

And then from a capital intensity standpoint, what we see is WFE as a percent of overall semiconductor industry revenue bottomed around 2013 at 9%. Of course, we're taking the one data point around the '08, '09 downturn of 6% off the table. 2013, it was about 9%. And Gary referenced in his prepared comments, we've been in a tight band centered around 11.5% for the last 5 years. So it's a clear indication this industry is experiencing increased capital intensity. The macro demand drivers driving the overall semiconductor industry are firmly intact. Semiconductors are going to go structurally larger as the data economy kicks in. And by implication, our industry and Applied Materials are growing structurally larger. So we think the opportunities in front of us has never looked -- has never looked as good as they do today, and we're really excited about what we see.

從資本密集度的角度來看，WFE（晶圓級電子元件）佔半導體產業整體收入的比例在2013年左右觸底，約為9%。當然，我們忽略了2008、2009年經濟衰退期間6%的低點。 2013年，這一比例約為9%。正如Gary在事先準備好的評論中所提到的，過去五年，WFE一直穩定在11.5%左右的區間內。這清楚地表明，半導體產業的資本密集度正在增加。推動整個半導體產業發展的宏觀需求因素依然穩固。隨著數據經濟的興起，半導體產業的規模將進一步擴大。這意味著，我們所在的產業以及應用材料公司（Applied Materials）的規模也將隨之擴大。因此，我們認為擺在我們面前的機會從未像今天這樣廣闊，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Great job on the quarterly execution. One way to combat the slowing of traditional Moore's law on the manufacturing front but still drive Moore's law, like performance improvements at the chip level, is through the use of these advanced package whether that's chiplet strategy, multichip die stacking. You guys have a pretty strong position in these markets. How is this segment expected to do this year? And roughly how big is your advanced packaging segment relative to the size of your overall semi business?

季度業績執行得非常出色。在製造領域，應對傳統摩爾定律增速放緩，同時又能推動摩爾定律持續發展（例如晶片級性能提升）的一個方法是採用先進的封裝技術，例如晶片組策略和多晶片堆疊技術。你們在這些市場中佔據著相當強勢的地位。預計今年該業務類股的業績如何？你們的先進封裝業務板塊在半導體業務整體規模中佔比大概是多少？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Harlan. So in -- you're right. We talked about this new playbook going beyond the classic 2D shrinking and Moore's Law. And packaging is 1 of those 5 drivers for the new playbook, and it really, really, really is very important. The -- one example is if you take GPU in a new package, and this is a product that was released over the last couple of years, you'll get 50% lower power and 3x increase in speed, 3x increase in speed just from the package. So definitely really important as part of the new playbook.

是的，謝謝你的提問，哈蘭。你說得對。我們討論過，這套新的策略超越了傳統的二維尺寸縮小和摩爾定律。封裝是這套新策略的五大驅動因素之一，而且它真的非常非常重要。舉個例子，如果你把GPU封裝成新的封裝，例如過去幾年發布的產品，你會發現功耗降低了50%，速度提升了3倍，光是封裝就能帶來3倍的速度提升。所以，封裝絕對是這套新策略中非常重要的一環。

From an Applied perspective, we had record revenues in packaging in 2019, and we have really strong momentum into 2020. We have the most comprehensive portfolio of solutions to support the packaging road maps for our customers and as you talked about, heterogeneous integration approaches. In 2019, we won over 50% of the applications we competed for. And our -- we have this broad portfolio with CVD, PVD, CMP, plating and etch where we have highly differentiated new products.

從應用角度來看，我們在2019年包裝業務的營收創下歷史新高，2020年也保持著強勁的成長動能。我們擁有最全面的解決方案組合，能夠支援客戶的包裝發展路線圖，正如您所提到的，我們也提供異質整合方案。 2019年，我們在參與競標的應用程式中贏得了超過50%的訂單。此外，我們擁有涵蓋CVD、PVD、CMP、電鍍和蝕刻等領域的廣泛產品組合，並推出了許多差異化的新產品。

We have very deep engagements with leading customers, and there's a lot of focus on innovating with new packaging architectures. Applied has very deep engagement with -- really across the whole ecosystem. That -- those engagements are really driven by 2 things. One, we have the broadest portfolio of current and new products that haven't been announced yet, that are enabling from a packaging perspective. We also have the most advanced packaging lab where we can run entire end-to-end process and codevelop new packaging technology with leading customers and partners.

我們與領先客戶建立了非常深入的合作關係，並致力於創新新型包裝架構。應用材料公司與整個生態系統都保持著非常深入的合作。這些合作主要源自於兩方面。首先，我們擁有最廣泛的現有產品和尚未發布的新產品組合，這些產品在包裝領域具有強大的賦能作用。其次，我們擁有最先進的包裝實驗室，可以運行完整的端到端流程，並與領先的客戶和合作夥伴共同開發新的包裝技術。

So again, overall, very strong momentum with record business in '19. And I think this area, it's -- we haven't quantified it in terms of a dollar amount, but it's sizable. And I would say relative to growth opportunities as one of the elements of the new playbook, it's underappreciated, and the opportunities are bigger than what people would think relative to our growth potential here.

所以，總的來說，2019年業務發展勢頭強勁，創下歷史新高。我認為這個領域——我們還沒有用具體的金額來量化——規模相當可觀。而且，作為新策略的重要組成部分，我認為它所蘊含的成長機會被低估了，而這些機會遠比人們想像的要大，也與我們的成長潛力息息相關。

Yes, thanks for the insights there. And then you guys have talked about memory spending recovery with NAND leading the way this year. But with DRAM pricing now steadily rising, especially in mobile and servers and looking to be sustainable, and you've also got the new gaming console platforms launching in the second half that are driving pretty strong bit demand growth for graphics DRAM, are you guys starting to get some visibility on a return to spending by some of your DRAM customers in the second half of this year?

是的，感謝您提供的見解。你們之前也討論過記憶體消費復甦，NAND快閃記憶體今年引領了這個趨勢。但是，DRAM價格目前正穩步上漲，尤其是在行動和伺服器領域，而且這種上漲勢頭似乎會持續下去。此外，下半年即將推出的新世代遊戲主機平台也將推動圖形DRAM的位元需求強勁成長。那麼，你們是否開始預見部分DRAM客戶會在今年下半年恢復支出？

Yes. Thanks, Harlan. I'll take that. I think what we see, we talked about the magnitude of the growth we see in WFE year-over-year into 2020. Our view on that is that it's broad-based. I think that you'll see a good profile from foundry/logic. I think you see a good profile from memory. And I think you will see balance across device types within memory. The growth profile into 2020 is going to be across those different device types. And yes, so we will start seeing DRAM this year.

是的，謝謝哈蘭。我明白了。我們之前討論過，2020年晶圓廠設備（WFE）的年增長率將會非常顯著。我們認為這種成長是全方位的。我認為晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域會有良好的成長勢頭，記憶體領域也會如此。而且我認為記憶體內部不同元件類型的成長會比較均衡。 2020年的成長將體現在這些不同類型的裝置上。是的，我們今年將開始看到DRAM的成長。

Our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

On foundry/logic, you had like a record quarter of $1.9 billion. I was curious to hear how much of that comes from deep EUV nodes where a lot capacity being added today so that your foundries (inaudible) and IBM (inaudible) and IBM 10-nanometer? And how much of your revenues are already coming from the new EUV nodes?

在晶圓代工/邏輯晶片方面，你們的季度營收達到了創紀錄的19億美元。我很想知道其中有多少來自深度EUV製程節點，因為目前該節點的產能正在大幅提升，例如你們的晶圓代工廠（聽不清楚）和IBM（聽不清楚）以及IBM的10奈米製程？你們目前有多少收入來自新的EUV製程節點？

Pierre, this is Mike. Unfortunately, I couldn't hear your -- I think you're maybe on cellphone. So we can tell you you're talking about foundry and the mix of getting to a number like $1.9 billion. But I -- we unfortunately couldn't hear the rest of the details of your question. And so we're not sure how to respond. Could you try one more time, please?

皮埃爾，我是麥克。很抱歉，我沒聽清楚你——我想你可能是在用手機。所以我們可以聽出來你指的是代工廠以及如何達到19億美元的規模。但是，很遺憾，我們沒能聽清楚你問題的其他細節。因此，我們不知道該如何回答。你能再試一次嗎？

Oh, yes. Can you hear me better now?

哦，是的。現在你能聽得更清楚些嗎？

That is a little better. Let's try again.

這樣好多了。我們再試一次。

Okay. Sorry for that.

好的，抱歉。

So I was wondering how much total revenues come from like deep EUV nodes where capacity is being added at the moment 7-nanometer foundry and 5-nanometer and 10-nanometer IGM? And how much is coming from the new EUV nodes ramping today?

所以我想知道，目前產能正在增加的7奈米晶圓代工廠和5奈米、10奈米IGM等深層EUV節點能帶來多少總收入？而如今正在量產的新型EUV節點又能帶來多少收入？

Yes. So thanks, Pierre. Let me take a stab at that and then see if Gary wants to add anything.

是的。謝謝你，皮埃爾。我先試著回答一下，然後再看看加里是否還有補充。

So what I would say is we won't share internal forecast of how foundry/logic breaks out across nodes, but I think -- let me provide some color and context around the $1.9 billion. I think we would say that we're seeing strong adoption at 7 nanometers as they build out the node, strong adoption node over node as 5 nanometers gets deployed from a capacity standpoint and the logic equivalents of that. And while we talk about a more balanced market in foundry/logic, I think what you would see in the near-term environment that it's going to be significantly more weighted in the near term to these leading-edge technologies. And so we really like the way the business is performing node over node. In fact, as we look out into 3 nanometers, we really like the position and we think we can significantly enhance our relative position node over node. So we really like the way the business has performed on the leading edge. And what you see in the near-term environment, given the strong ramp around 5 to 7 nanometers is less balance in the market in the near term. But the long-term trend of diversification within foundry/logic is still intact.

所以我想說的是，我們不會透露晶圓代工/邏輯晶片在不同製程節點上的具體預測，但我想就19億美元的規模做一些背景說明。我認為，隨著7奈米製程節點的不斷完善，我們看到該過程的普及率很高；同時，隨著5奈米製程產能的提升以及邏輯晶片的相應應用，各過程節點的普及率也在不斷提高。雖然我們一直在討論晶圓代工/邏輯晶片市場將更加平衡，但我認為在短期內，這些前沿技術仍將佔據主導地位。因此，我們非常看好該業務在各過程節點上的表現。事實上，展望3奈米過程，我們對其市場地位非常看好，並認為我們可以顯著提升各過程節點的相對優勢。所以我們非常看好該業務在尖端技術方面的表現。鑑於5奈米到7奈米製程的強勁成長勢頭，短期內市場平衡性可能會下降。但晶圓代工/邏輯電路領域的多元化長期趨勢仍維持不變。

Yes, Pierre, the other thing I would add relative to the leading foundry/logic is that all of these customers are driving performance: power, area costs, PPAC improvements. And that's really all about new materials, new structures to drive power and performance. And so for Applied, as Dan said, really from a leading perspective, leading node perspective, it's really -- it is those EUV nodes like 5-nanometer where you see that adoption. But still, we're achieving record revenue. We have so many opportunities when we're driving these new structures, new materials, new architectures, all of those different areas. So we see record revenue there.

是的，皮埃爾，關於領先的晶圓代工廠/邏輯晶片，我想補充一點：所有這些客戶都在追求性能提升：功耗、面積成本、PPAC（功耗、面積 ...

We're also seeing growth not only in transistor, interconnect and patterning with some of our leading products, but we also have growth in areas where we have had lower share. In etch, we have many new critical etch steps that we've won, new soft line multipatterning wins and EUV patterning steps where we really didn't participate in the past. So we look at our etch business in foundry and logic, we are extremely optimistic about the growth that we're seeing as new nodes are adopted, even as EUV is also being adopted as one of the 5 drivers of power, performance, area and cost.

我們不僅在晶體管、互連和圖形化等領域憑藉一些領先產品實現了成長，而且在先前市場份額較低的領域也取得了成長。在蝕刻領域，我們贏得了許多新的關鍵蝕刻製程訂單，包括新的軟線多重曝光製程訂單以及過去我們幾乎沒有涉足的EUV圖形化製程訂單。因此，展望我們在晶圓代工和邏輯電路領域的蝕刻業務，我們對隨著新製程節點的採用而實現的成長前景非常樂觀，同時EUV也正被廣泛採用，成為提升功耗、性能、面積和成本的五大驅動因素之一。

The other thing I talked about is in process control, we have continued strength in e-beam. We also have strong adoption of a new inspection tool. And we had record revenues in that market this last quarter.

我提到的另一點是，在製程控制方面，我們在電子束檢測領域依然保持強勁勢頭。此外，我們新推出的檢測工具也得到了廣泛應用。上個季度，我們在該市場的收入創下了歷史新高。

So again, it's really about driving that new playbook along those 5 vectors, power and performance. Our leading products, we're seeing new steps being adopted. And in some areas, we have room to grow. The opportunities for us have never been better, and our position has never been better than today.

所以，關鍵在於沿著這五個方向——實力和性能——推進新的策略規劃。我們的領先產品正在取得新的進展。在某些領域，我們還有成長空間。我們面臨的機會前所未有，我們的市場地位也從未像今天這樣有利。

Thanks, Pierre.

謝謝你，皮埃爾。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wonder if you can address the $300 million of kind of deferred revenue that pushes to next quarter. Can you talk about why that's happening? Is that just sort of issues with your customers getting up and running? Is it logistics issues getting tools to them? Or is it supply constraints that you have getting kind of sub assemblies to build tools? Just can you kind of tell us what's driving the deferral?

我想請您解釋一下，為什麼有3億美元的收入被延到下個季度？您能談談造成這種情況的原因嗎？是因為客戶啟動和運作方面遇到了一些問題嗎？是因為物流方面的問題，導致工具無法及時送達嗎？還是因為供應受限，導致工具所需的子組件無法及時到位？您能否告訴我們造成收入延後的具體原因？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. I think the best way to describe it is the actions China is taking to contain the spread of the virus has led to travel restrictions and logistics of moving things around the country. We see those impacts as being temporary and it reprofiles revenue from Q2 to the back part of our fiscal year. And so in the early stages of the China workforce coming back after the Lunar New Year and after the imposed restrictions by the government, we're seeing some early signs that are encouraging of some return to normalcy. It's a fluid environment. It's too early to draw a conclusion from it. But we like some of the early indications that we see. We're going to continue to monitor the situation closely and update as necessary.

是的，謝謝喬。我認為最好的描述方式是，中國為遏制病毒傳播而採取的措施導致了旅行限制和國內物資運輸物流的調整。我們認為這些影響是暫時的，並將部分收入從第二季調整到了本財年的後半段。因此，在春節假期後，隨著中國員工陸續返回工作崗位，以及政府實施的限制措施逐步解除，我們看到了一些令人鼓舞的早期跡象，表明情況正在逐漸恢復正常。目前情勢瞬息萬變，現在下結論還為時過早。但我們對目前看到的一些早期跡象感到滿意。我們將繼續密切關注事態發展，並根據需要及時更新資訊。

Again, as we break out that $300 million, you rank order it: semi systems, display, services. It's about getting our people into the factories and being able to service the equipment. That certainly puts some restrictions on it. We know Wuhan is an important geography in our display business. Getting our systems into the factories in that region are impacted in the near term. And then semi systems, it's more of the same. And so we think that given everything we know, it's a prudent approach to the environment we see. We're going to continue to monitor it. There's an opportunity to do better in Q2. We think the customer demand is there. And we do think that we recover in Q3, Q4 and our full year fiscal year outlook remains intact.

再說一遍，當我們把這3億美元的預算細化時，我們會按優先順序排序：半導體系統、顯示器、服務。關鍵在於如何讓我們的員工進入工廠，並為設備提供維護服務。這無疑會帶來一些限制。我們知道武漢是我們顯示器業務的重要地區。短期內，將我們的系統運送到該地區的工廠會受到影響。半導體系統的情況也類似。因此，考慮到我們目前掌握的所有信息，我們認為採取謹慎的策略來應對當前的環境是明智之舉。我們將繼續密切關注事態發展。第二季有機會做得更好。我們認為客戶需求依然存在。而且我們相信第三季和第四季將會復甦，全年財年展望保持不變。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America Securities.

下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的維韋克·阿亞。

Congratulations on the strong growth and for all the color that you gave. A lot of questions were asked on the product side. I wanted to ask about services. Were you surprised to see the slowdown in services in the last few quarters? What drove that? And then more importantly, let's say you're targeting a 15%, 20% growth for next year, how much does AGS need to grow for that? Or how much can AGS grow in that kind of product growth environment?

祝賀你們取得強勁成長，也感謝你們為公司帶來的豐富多彩的業績。大家問了很多關於產品方面的問題。我想問一下關於服務方面的問題。你們對過去幾季服務業務成長放緩感到驚訝嗎？是什麼原因導致了這種放緩？更重要的是，假設你們明年的目標是成長15%到20%，AGS需要成長多少才能達成這個目標？或者說，在這樣的產品成長環境下，AGS能夠成長多少？

Yes. Thanks, Vivek. So as we look at services, we talked about the framework of growth in that business in the prepared comments. It's size of the installed base. It's complexity of the leading node technologies. And it's the execution against the long-term service agreement opportunity we have. Those underlying growth drivers are absolutely intact. This is a business that's grown strong double digits over the last handful of years.

是的，謝謝Vivek。說到服務業務，我們在事先準備好的評論中已經討論過該業務的成長框架，包括龐大的用戶基數、領先節點技術的複雜性，以及我們抓住長期服務協議機遇的執行情況。這些根本性的成長驅動因素依然穩固。過去幾年，這項業務一直保持著強勁的兩位數成長。

Q1 was a record quarter for us and significantly above seasonal. Q2 would have been our first billion-dollar quarter. And so the team is doing a great job executing.

第一季是我們創紀錄的季度，遠超過往年同期水準。第二季本來可以成為我們首個營收突破十億美元的季度。所以，團隊的執行力非常出色。

We also know the slowdown in the near term is a function of the memory correction that we're seeing profiled throughout 2019. As industry utilizations come down, our transactional component of the business has reflected what's happening to industry-wide utilizations. The theme is still executing against the long-term service agreement opportunity and grew that business nicely in the mid-teens in 2019.

我們也知道，短期內的放緩是我們在2019年觀察到的記憶功能調整的結果。隨著產業利用率的下降，我們業務中的交易部分也反映了產業整體利用率的變化。我們仍專注於掌握長期服務協議的機遇，並在2019年實現了兩位數以上的良好成長。

What we like about the setup through the back half of the year and as we look into 2021, with the services business in particular, as the memory recovery begins to take hold and as we look at that building momentum throughout 2021, foundry/logic demand continues to be strong. Those are going to provide a nice tailwind for that business to grow into the back half of the year and into 2021. So underlying demand drivers intact, team is executing well, and we like the profile going forward.

我們對下半年及展望2021年的業務佈局感到滿意，尤其是在服務業務方面。隨著記憶體回收市場開始復甦，並且預計其在2021年將持續成長，代工/邏輯晶片的需求仍然強勁。這些因素將為該業務在下半年及2021年的成長提供良好的助力。因此，基本需求驅動因素依然存在，團隊執行力出色，我們對未來的發展前景充滿信心。

Yes, just one more data point I talked about in the prepared remarks. We added 15% increase in the tools under service agreements. And those -- that subscription-type revenue is very sticky and also gives us a higher entitlement per tool. So that's been a big focus. It's been a tremendous change in the last few years, this significant growth. And it's really based on the value that we're providing our customers.

是的，我剛才在準備好的發言稿中也提到了一個數據點。我們新增了15%的服務協議工具使用量。這種訂閱式收入非常穩定，而且每個工具的收益也更高。所以，這一直是我們的重點領域。過去幾年，這種顯著的成長帶來了巨大的變化。而這一切都源自於我們為客戶提供的價值。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

I guess I wanted to go through some numbers with you guys. So you're -- I think you said, Dan, 19.2% of WFE last year. So if I assume that the second half is flat versus the first half, that would put SSG sort of in the $11.5 million to like $12 billion range. So I don't think you would argue with either of those numbers since that's what you've guided. So if I use that, and then I assume that you don't gain or lose any share this year, that would imply like a $61 billion WFE number. You're sort of saying, well, it's probably going to be more like $57 million. So if I just average those 2 and take $59 million, and if I try to figure out how much revenue is required to support that much WFE, and I listen to what Gary said, which I totally agree with about WFE intensity that it usually peaks out at about 12%. So if you take 12%, that would imply that you need over $500 million worth of semiconductor revenue this year, which would be up like 25% year-over-year. So I definitely get that YMTC is some of the incremental WFE, and they don't have much revenue. But how can you build a path to have enough revenue to support this? I guess that's the question. It's just hard to see WFE growing off of this. It would -- like it's going to take a long time for revenue to kind of grow into these WFE levels.

我想和你們一起分析一些數據。丹，我記得你說過，去年WFE佔比是19.2%。假設下半年與上半年持平，那麼SSG的收入應該在1,150萬美元到120億美元之間。我想你們應該不會對這兩個數字有異議，因為你們之前也是這麼預測的。如果我用這個數字，再假設你們今年的市佔率沒有變化，那麼WFE的收入應該在610億美元左右。但你卻說，實際數字可能更接近5700萬美元。那麼，如果我把這兩個數字取平均值，也就是5900萬美元，然後計算一下需要多少收入才能支撐這麼大的WFE，再加上我完全同意加里關於WFE強度的觀點（我完全同意他的說法），WFE強度通常在12%左右達到峰值。所以，如果以12%的成長率計算，那就意味著今年半導體業務的收入需要超過5億美元，比去年同期成長約25%。我當然明白YMTC是WFE業務成長的一部分，而且他們的收入並不高。但如何才能獲得足夠的收入來支撐WFE業務呢？我想這才是關鍵。很難想像WFE業務會在此基礎上成長。收入要達到WFE業務的水平，恐怕需要很長時間。

Yes. Thanks, Tim. Appreciate the question. So a couple of things. We have in sight and what we think our semi systems business can do against the backdrop of the environment we see. And we're very confident in our ability to significantly outgrow the market. And then from a modeling standpoint, here's, I guess, how I would get at some of the assumptions. We think 2020 is going to be a really good year. We expect to outperform the market.

是的，謝謝，提姆。感謝你的提問。有幾點要說明。我們已經看到了半導體系統業務在當前環境下的發展前景，並且非常有信心能夠顯著超越市場平均水平。從模型角度來看，以下是我的一些假設。我們認為2020年將是業績非常出色的一年，預計能夠跑贏大盤。

One of the key variables in the model that you're putting together is what you assume for market share. And small changes in market share can make big differences in the model. So we see continued strength from foundry and logic in our business throughout the year. We've got signs of memory recovery. And as we've been saying for a couple of quarters, ultimately it depends on the magnitude and shape of the memory recovery later in the year. And if we see more momentum in that than we're currently planning for, then I do think that we have an opportunity to outperform in Q4 and into our fiscal Q1.

您建立的模型中，關鍵變數之一是您對市場佔有率的假設。市場佔有率的微小變化都可能對模型產生重大影響。因此，我們預計全年晶圓代工和邏輯晶片業務將持續強勁成長。內存業務也出現了復甦跡象。正如我們過去幾季一直強調的，最終結果取決於今年稍後記憶體業務復甦的幅度和形態。如果我們看到記憶體業務復甦的勢頭強於目前的預期，那麼我認為我們有機會在第四季度以及本財年第一季取得超出預期的業績。

And so net-net, we don't see this being an isolated pocket of performance. We're relatively balanced half over half, and we feel really good about how we're positioned and how we're performing this year.

總的來說，我們認為這並非個別業績波動。我們目前的業績相對均衡，各佔一半，我們對今年的市場定位和業績表現都非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

Gary, maybe just to follow up on the share position for Applied both in terms of the customer spending mix, which is influential for you as well as some of the competitive and design wins. You've talked about process control being a record revenue year. How do you look at the next couple of years as, I guess, new products continue to be introduced and additional competitive wins you believe can drive the company on this outperformance?

Gary，或許我可以就Applied的市佔率再補充一點，包括客戶支出結構（這對您來說很重要）以及一些競爭優勢和設計上的成功案例。您提到過程控制業務今年的營收創下了歷史新高。您如何看待未來幾年，因為我想，隨著新產品的不斷推出以及您認為能夠推動公司保持這一優異業績的更多競爭優勢，您覺得未來幾年會如何發展？

Yes, thanks, Patrick. So I would say I've never been more optimistic relative to the market. Again, you have new demand drivers that are layered on top of mobile, social media and PC. So the market is going to be bigger than we've seen in the past. And you can also see indications over the last few years, the market is structurally larger and less volatile. We have very good share spread across all of the different segments, the leading foundry/logic. We have momentum as customers are driving improvements in power, performance, area and cost. In the specialty nodes, we have very, very strong positions, whether it's in image sensors or any of the other markets like IoT, communication, auto and power devices. So we have strength there. We've grown a significant amount in DRAM and in NAND relative to market share. Dan talked about this earlier. We've grown several points over the last few years. So we have very strong balance.

是的，謝謝派崔克。所以我覺得我對市場的前景從來沒有如此樂觀過。再次強調，除了行動、社群媒體和個人電腦之外，還有新的需求驅動因素。因此，市場規模將比以往任何時候都更大。過去幾年的跡像也表明，市場結構性地擴大了規模，波動性也降低了。我們在所有細分市場都擁有非常好的市場份額，是領先的晶圓代工/邏輯晶片製造商。隨著客戶在功耗、效能、面積和成本方面不斷改進，我們正處於強勁的發展勢頭。在特殊製程節點方面，我們擁有非常強大的地位，無論是在影像感測器領域，還是在物聯網、通訊、汽車和電源設備等其他市場。因此，我們在這些領域實力雄厚。相對於市場佔有率而言，我們在DRAM和NAND領域都實現了顯著成長。丹之前也談到了這一點。過去幾年，我們的市佔率成長了好幾個百分點。因此，我們的業務組合非常均衡。

And what I would say is again, the path forward for the industry is really this new playbook around new architectures, new structures, new materials. New packet is also where we had record last year, and we have strength and new ways to strength. So we have the product pipeline. And then we have some very significant products in the pipeline that are targeted at multibillion-dollar types of opportunities.

我想再次強調的是，產業的未來發展方向在於圍繞新架構、新結構和新材料製定一套全新的發展藍圖。去年，我們在新封裝領域也取得了突破性進展，我們不僅擁有強大的實力，而且還找到了進一步增強實力的新途徑。我們擁有豐富的產品線，並且還有一些非常重要的產品正在研發中，目標是數十億美元的市場機會。

But the other thing I would say that's really important is the combinations of these different technologies with integrated material solutions, driving significant improvements in throughput, in drive current or power, the things really that are crucial for the edge and the cloud. We have unique capabilities to combine these technologies, some of them under vacuum so you're not damaging interfaces electrically. So that's another area. We have engagements across every single customer with integrated material solutions. We have very good momentum there besides the current products and we have -- and the products that we have in the pipeline. So again, from my perspective, I've never been more optimistic. I spend a huge amount of my personal time with the R&D leaders for the customers through this entire ecosystem. They're struggling to drive the performance, power improvements that are needed. And I think Applied is in the best position that we've ever been relative to our ability to drive our opportunities and growth going forward.

但我想說的另一點也至關重要，那就是將這些不同的技術與整合式材料解決方案結合，從而顯著提升吞吐量、驅動電流或功率，這些對於邊緣運算和雲端運算至關重要。我們擁有獨特的能力來整合這些技術，其中一些技術甚至可以在真空環境下完成，這樣就不會對介面造成電氣損壞。這是另一個重要領域。我們與每一位客戶都開展了整合材料解決方案的合作。除了現有產品之外，我們在這一領域也取得了非常良好的發展勢頭，而且我們還有一些產品正在研發中。所以，就我個人而言，我從未像現在這樣充滿信心。我投入了大量個人時間與整個生態系統中客戶的研發負責人交流。他們正努力提升產品的性能和功率，以滿足市場需求。我認為，就我們掌握未來機會和實現成長的能力而言，應用材料公司目前處於前所未有的最佳狀態。

Yes. Thanks, Patrick. Thanks for your question. Dan, would you like to help us close the call?

是的。謝謝，派崔克。謝謝你的提問。丹，你願意幫我們結束通話嗎？

Sure, Mike. First, our sympathies to everybody who's been affected by the coronavirus situation. I want to personally thank all of our employees who are helping their families and their communities while also taking really good care of our customers.

當然，麥克。首先，我們向所有受新冠病毒疫情影響的人們表示慰問。我還要特別感謝我們所有的員工，他們在幫助家人和社區的同時，也盡心盡力服務我們的客戶。

Applied's outlook for 2020 remains really positive. We expect to deliver strong double-digit growth in our semi systems business this year, significantly outperforming our end markets. Looking out into the future, I really like the setup. I really like what I see: continued strong pull foundry/logic, improvement in memory. Both of those elements are going to drive and fuel growth in our services business over time. I like what I see in display increasing into the second half of 2020 and into 2021. And we expect to close the Kokusai transaction in the middle of the year. So I really like the setup in 2020 and 2021. Gary and I hope to see many of you tomorrow at Goldman. And next week, I'll be on the East Coast and look forward to seeing many of you as well. Let's close the call, Mike.

應用半導體對2020年的展望依然非常樂觀。我們預計今年半導體系統業務將實現強勁的兩位數成長，顯著優於終端市場。展望未來，我對目前的情況非常看好。我非常看好以下幾點：晶圓代工/邏輯業務持續強勁成長，記憶體業務不斷改進。這兩大因素都將推動我們服務業務的持續成長。我看好顯示器業務在2020年下半年和2021年的成長。我們預計將在年中完成對Kokusai的交易。因此，我對2020年和2021年的發展前景非常樂觀。我和Gary希望明天能在高盛見到各位。下週我將在東海岸，也期待見到各位。 Mike，我們結束今天的電話會議。

Okay. Thanks. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of our call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 Pacific time. And we would like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的，謝謝。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。太平洋時間下午5點前，您可以在我們的網站上收聽本次電話會議的錄音回放。感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。