應用材料 (AMAT) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把會議交給公司副總裁邁克爾·沙利文先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

各位下午好，感謝各位參加Applied公司2020財年第四季財報電話會議。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson，以及我們的財務長 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的資訊包含在 Applied 向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP財務指標。有關 GAAP 指標的調節表，請參閱今天的獲利新聞稿和我們的季度獲利資料，這些資料可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的 IR 頁面上找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike. I'm very pleased to report that Applied Materials delivered record revenue in our fourth fiscal quarter, and earnings hit an annualized run rate of $5 per share for the first time.

謝謝你，麥克。我非常高興地宣布，應用材料公司在第四財季實現了創紀錄的收入，並且首次實現了每股年化收益 5 美元。

For the fiscal year, we grew revenues 18%, and earnings 37% while making significant strategic investments in new technologies and products to address the industry's highest value problems and position the company for sustained long-term success. These results are all the more impressive considering the unprecedented disruptions we've navigated this year.

在本財年，我們的營收成長了 18%，利潤成長了 37%，同時對新技術和產品進行了重大策略投資，以解決產業中最有價值的問題，並為公司的持續長期成功奠定了基礎。考慮到我們今年所經歷的前所未有的挑戰，這些結果就更加令人印象深刻了。

I really want to thank all our employees, suppliers and partners for their resilience and adaptability. Our teams have switched to new ways of working, delivered on our commitments to customers and investors and kept our technology and product development on track. While our actions to date are driven by a need to protect the health and safety of our employees while keeping our company strong, I'm very excited about the long-term benefits of working in new ways, especially remote support in R&D.

我衷心感謝我們所有的員工、供應商和合作夥伴，感謝他們的韌性和適應能力。我們的團隊已經轉向新的工作方式，履行了對客戶和投資者的承諾，並保持了我們的技術和產品開發按計劃進行。雖然我們迄今為止的行動都是為了保護員工的健康和安全，同時保持公司的強勁發展，但我對以新的方式工作所帶來的長期好處感到非常興奮，尤其是在研發領域提供遠端支援。

In today's call, I'll begin by sharing our current view of the market environment. Then as this is the end of our fiscal year, I'll highlight some of our major accomplishments in 2020 before describing the growth drivers and inflections that will shape our markets over the next several years.

在今天的電話會議中，我將首先分享我們目前對市場環境的看法。接下來，由於這是我們財政年度的結束，我將重點介紹我們在 2020 年取得的一些主要成就，然後再介紹未來幾年將塑造我們市場的成長動力和轉折點。

I'll conclude by outlining our strategy and investments that will drive Applied's long-term profitable growth. As we adapt to the challenges created by COVID-19 and prepare for the post-pandemic era, we are seeing fundamental changes in many areas of our lives, and the world is depending on semiconductors more than ever. Investments in IT and communications infrastructure, combined with the accelerated digital transformation of companies and the economy as a whole are driving very robust semiconductor and wafer fab equipment demand.

最後，我將概述我們的策略和投資，這些策略和投資將推動應用科技實現長期獲利成長。隨著我們適應 COVID-19 帶來的挑戰並為後疫情時代做準備，我們生活的許多領域正在發生根本性的變化，世界比以往任何時候都更加依賴半導體。對資訊科技和通訊基礎設施的投資，加上企業和整體經濟加速數位轉型，正在推動半導體和晶圓製造設備需求的強勁成長。

In foundry/logic, we see leading-edge customers building out their fabs and aggressively driving advanced R&D. This gives us confidence that current investment levels are sustainable into 2021 and beyond. In addition, specialty markets underperformed in 2020 due to headwinds in industrial and automotive and therefore, represent an upside for 2021 as these sectors rebound.

在晶圓代工/邏輯電路領域，我們看到領先的客戶正在擴大他們的晶圓廠，並積極推動先進的研發。這讓我們有信心，目前的投資水準可以持續到 2021 年及以後。此外，由於工業和汽車行業的逆風，專業市場在 2020 年表現不佳，因此，隨著這些行業的反彈，專業市場在 2021 年將迎來上漲空間。

In memory, spending is growing faster than foundry/logic this year as customers push forward with their technology road maps. We see NAND outgrowing DRAM in 2020 and then DRAM growing significantly faster than NAND in 2021.

今年，由於客戶不斷推進其技術路線圖，記憶體領域的支出成長速度超過了晶片/邏輯裝置。我們看到，2020 年 NAND 的成長速度將超過 DRAM，而 DRAM 在 2021 年的成長速度將明顯超過 NAND。

Consistent with the perspective we shared on the August call, our outlook remains very positive. We are outperforming the market and we are demonstrating we can grow independent of the spending mix.

與我們在8月電話會議上表達的觀點一致，我們的前景依然非常​​樂觀。我們的表現優於市場，並證明我們可以在不考慮消費結構的情況下成長。

This quarter, semiconductor systems revenues were an all-time (inaudible) the midpoint of our guidance will be up another 12% next quarter. For the fiscal year, semi systems revenue grew 26% with broad-based strength across products and device types. Our traditional leadership businesses that provide solutions for creating and modifying materials and structures are benefiting from innovations that enable leading-edge transistors and interconnects. For example, our metals deposition business, technology that is critical to interconnect performance grew revenues 42% in fiscal 2020 to nearly $2.2 billion.

本季半導體系統營收創歷史新高（聽不清楚），我們預計下個季度將再成長 12%。本財年，半導體系統營收成長了 26%，產品和裝置類型全面強勁成長。我們傳統的領先企業為材料和結構的創造與改造提供解決方案，並受益於能夠實現尖端晶體管和互連技術的創新。例如，我們的金屬沉積業務（這項對互連性能至關重要的技術）在 2020 財年的營收成長了 42%，達到近 22 億美元。

In our businesses that focus on shaping and analyzing materials and structures, we have significant opportunities to grow our share, and we're demonstrating our strong momentum. In fiscal 2020, our etch business generated record revenues, growing nearly 30% year-on-year. We're gaining share in conductor etch as we win new applications in DRAM and foundry/logic. Our inspection business also delivered record performance as systems revenues increased 46% for the year. We have significant traction with leading-edge customers and are winning share in optical wafer inspection and e-beam with new products that are still in early stages of adoption.

在我們專注於材料和結構成型與分析的業務領域，我們有很大的機會擴大市場份額，並且我們正在展現出強勁的發展勢頭。2020 財年，我們的蝕刻業務創造了創紀錄的收入，年增近 30%。隨著我們在 DRAM 和晶圓代工/邏輯領域贏得新的應用，我們在導體蝕刻領域的市佔率也不斷擴大。我們的檢測業務也取得了創紀錄的業績，系統收入全年增長了 46%。我們在尖端客戶中獲得了顯著的吸引力，並且憑藉仍處於早期應用階段的新產品，在光學晶圓檢測和電子束領域贏得了市場份額。

As the benefits of traditional 2D Moore's Law scaling slowdown, leading companies are describing how the industry is transitioning to a new playbook to drive performance, power, area cost and time to market of new devices. This PPACt playbook includes new architectures, new structures, new materials, new ways to shrink geometries and new packaging technology. Applied is uniquely positioned to accelerate this playbook. The breadth of our product portfolio is a key advantage because it allows us to combine technologies in innovative new ways.

隨著傳統 2D 摩爾定律帶來的收益逐漸減少，領導企業正在闡述該產業如何轉型採用新的策略來提升新設備的效能、降低功耗、減少面積成本並縮短上市時間。這本 PPACt 策略手冊包括新的架構、新的結構、新的材料、縮小幾何形狀的新方法和新的包裝技術。Applied 擁有獨特的優勢，可以加速這項策略的實施。我們豐富的產品組合是一項關鍵優勢，因為它使我們能夠以創新的方式將各種技術結合起來。

For example, in patterning, where we generated nearly $1.1 billion of revenue in fiscal 2020, we have been winning new applications across multiple customers with a new product that delivers a novel hard mask material combined with a co-optimized etch solution to open the hard mask. This is a great example of a new class of highly differentiated products we call Integrated Materials Solutions or IMS. We have numerous IMS engagements with our leading customers, and I'm very excited about the IMS products we'll be bringing to market in the next several years.

例如，在圖形化領域，我們在 2020 財年創造了近 11 億美元的收入，我們憑藉一款新產品贏得了許多客戶的新應用。該產品提供了一種新型硬掩模材料，並結合了協同優化的蝕刻解決方案來打開硬掩模。這是我們稱之為整合材料解決方案或 IMS 的一類高度差異化產品的絕佳範例。我們與許多主要客戶開展了 IMS 合作，我對未來幾年我們將推向市場的 IMS 產品感到非常興奮。

Another area where we are creating value using our broad capabilities is advanced packaging that enables chips to be connected in new ways. Our packaging business is scaling, generating record revenues of $0.5 billion for the year, up over 20% from fiscal 2019. We're also expanding our ecosystem footprint through a combination of organic investments and partnerships.

我們利用自身廣泛的能力創造價值的另一個領域是先進的封裝技術，它使晶片能夠以新的方式連接。我們的包裝業務正在擴大規模，本年度創造了創紀錄的 5 億美元收入，比 2019 財年增長超過 20%。我們也透過有機投資和合作相結合的方式，不斷擴大我們的生態系統影響力。

Moving to service. AGS also delivered record revenues for the quarter and the year. The portion of AGS revenue generated from subscription-style business also grew to record levels. In fiscal 2020, we increased the number of tools covered by long-term service agreements by 13%. As a result, 60% of our service and spare parts business now comes from the stickier and more predictable recurring revenue streams. Our renewal rates for long-term agreements are also very high at more than 90%. This illustrates the value customers see in our advanced service products.

轉為服務。AGS本季和本年度的營收也創下歷史新高。AGS 來自訂閱式業務的營收比例也成長至創紀錄水準。在 2020 財年，我們將長期服務協議涵蓋的工具數量增加了 13%。因此，我們現在 60% 的服務和備件業務都來自更穩定、更可預測的經常性收入來源。我們的長期協議續約率也非常高，超過 90%。這說明客戶認可我們先進的服務產品的價值。

Rounding out our portfolio with display, we hit our 2020 revenue target in a challenging market. Our outlook for 2021 is similar to this year with no significant changes to the view we shared in our last call. However, we're starting to see some encouraging leading indicators of future growth that we'll be watching closely in 2021. These include increasing adoption of organic LED displays, OLED, for IT applications. Higher OLED adoption in the smartphone market with more than 70% of the 5G handsets launched to date equipped with OLED screens, and foldable OLED handsets approaching a price point that could spur volume adoption.

透過增加展示產品，我們完善了產品組合，並在充滿挑戰的市場中實現了 2020 年的收入目標。我們對 2021 年的展望與今年類似，與我們在上次電話會議中分享的觀點沒有重大變化。不過，我們開始看到一些令人鼓舞的未來成長先行指標，我們將在 2021 年密切關注這些指標。其中包括有機發光二極體（OLED）顯示器在資訊科技應用中的日益普及。智慧型手機市場對 OLED 的接受度越來越高，迄今為止推出的 5G 手機中超過 70% 都配備了 OLED 螢幕，而且可折疊 OLED 手機的價格也接近一個可能刺激其大規模普及的點。

As I've said before, we're optimistic about the long-term opportunities for Applied in the display market as we focus on addressing the OLED inflection and expanding our available market.

正如我之前所說，我們對應用材料在顯示器市場的長期發展機會持樂觀態度，因為我們將專注於應對 OLED 的轉型，並擴大我們的可用市場。

Finally, as I look back on our accomplishments this year, I'm also very proud of our new 10-year road map for environmental and social responsibility that we announced over the summer. This road map lays out the detailed actions behind our vision to make possible a better future for everyone. We've taken a holistic approach to these plans that considers our operations, how we work with customers and suppliers and how our technology can be used to advance sustainability on a global scale. We call our framework 1x, 100x, 10,000x, and we've used it to rally the company around challenging new goals and commitments.

最後，回顧我們今年的成就，我也為我們在夏季宣布的新的 10 年環境和社會責任路線圖感到非常自豪。這份路線圖詳細闡述了我們實現願景背後的具體行動，旨在為所有人創造更美好的未來。我們對此類計劃採取了整體性的方法，考慮了我們的營運、我們與客戶和供應商的合作方式，以及如何利用我們的技術在全球範圍內推動永續發展。我們將我們的框架稱為 1 倍、100 倍、10000 倍，我們利用它來團結公司，共同追求具有挑戰性的新目標和承諾。

Before I conclude, I'll take a few minutes to describe the longer-term growth drivers we see for Applied. As I look ahead to the next decade, our opportunities have never been better. There are numerous trillion-dollar inflections that can be enabled by advances in materials engineering, from next-generation displays and AR/VR to electrification of transport and personalized health care. However, the 1 inflection that really stands out is AI. AI has the potential to change everything, and it will touch every major industry and area of the economy. AI also has major implications for the electronics and semiconductor ecosystem.

在結束之前，我將花幾分鐘時間描述我們認為Applied的長期成長驅動因素。展望未來十年，我們擁有前所未有的機會。材料工程的進步可以帶來無數萬億美元的轉折點，從下一代顯示器和擴增實境/虛擬實境到交通電氣化和個人化醫療保健。然而，最引人注目的轉變是人工智慧。人工智慧有可能改變一切，它將影響經濟的每個主要產業和領域。人工智慧對電子和半導體生態系統也有重大影響。

First, we're moving from an application-centric to a data-first world where almost all data will be generated and consumed by machines. This means that the industry's growth will no longer be limited by humans ability to create or consume data.

首先，我們正在從以應用為中心的世界轉向以資料為中心的世界，幾乎所有資料都將由機器產生和使用。這意味著該產業的發展將不再受限於人類創造或使用數據的能力。

Second, the new computing approach is needed to make sense of the massive volumes of data available. We'll work best with workload-specific hardware built from customized and entirely new types of silicon. This diversification of designs and devices is great for the industry.

其次，需要新的計算方法來理解海量可用資料。我們最適合使用由客製化的、全新類型的矽晶片建構的、針對特定工作負載的硬體。設計和設備的多元化對產業來說是件好事。

And third, training neural networks for AI computing is incredibly power intensive. So there's a huge imperative for the industry to drive improvements in the performance per watt of computing solutions. The advances in technology needed to unlock the potential of AI create tremendous opportunities for Applied Materials. We have aligned our strategy and investments around this vision for the future, and we're uniquely positioned to accelerate the industry's new PPACt playbook, to advance power, performance, area cost and time to market of next-generation semi devices.

第三，訓練用於人工智慧運算的神經網路非常耗費電力。因此，業界迫切需要提高計算解決方案的每瓦效能。釋放人工智慧潛力所需的技術進步為應用材料公司創造了巨大的機會。我們已圍繞著這個未來願景調整了我們的策略和投資，並且我們擁有獨特的優勢來加速產業新的 PPACt 策略，從而提升下一代半導體裝置的功率、性能、面積成本和上市時間。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, let me quickly summarize. Despite the unprecedented challenges of 2020, Applied is delivering record performance. We're outperforming the market overall and have strong momentum in key growth areas like etch and inspection. The demand for semiconductors remains very strong, driven by IT infrastructure, digital transformation of businesses and an acceleration of longer-term technology trends, especially AI.

在把電話交給丹之前，讓我快速總結一下。儘管 2020 年面臨前所未有的挑戰，Applied 仍取得了創紀錄的業績。我們整體業績優於市場，並在蝕刻和檢測等關鍵成長領域擁有強勁的發展動能。受 IT 基礎設施、企業數位轉型以及長期技術趨勢（尤其是人工智慧）加速發展的推動，半導體需求仍然非常強勁。

Our future opportunities have never been better. We've been investing in next-generation technologies that are critical for the AI ecosystem and laying the groundwork for Applied's future growth. Our strategy to accelerate the PPACt playbook is already yielding results for our customers and Applied. And as I look ahead, I'm very excited about the innovative new products and integrated solutions we will bring to market in 2021 and beyond.

我們未來的機會從未如此好。我們一直在投資對人工智慧生態系統至關重要的下一代技術，並為應用材料公司的未來發展奠定基礎。我們加速實施 PPACt 策略手冊的策略已經為我們的客戶和 Applied 帶來了成果。展望未來，我對我們將在 2021 年及以後推向市場的創新產品和整合解決方案感到非常興奮。

Now I will turn the call over to Dan.

現在我將把通話交給丹。

Thanks, Gary. Today, I'll add my perspective on our Q4 performance and full year results. I'll share some noteworthy developments in our installed base business, and I'll provide you with our backlog entering our next fiscal year, along with our business outlook for Q1.

謝謝你，加里。今天，我將分享我對我們第四季業績和全年業績的看法。我將分享我們已安裝業務的一些值得關注的進展，並向您提供我們進入下一個財政年度的積壓訂單，以及我們對第一季的業務展望。

Beginning with our Q4 performance. I'm pleased that our company delivered record revenue and earnings per share despite the ongoing challenges related to COVID. Our teams managed to significantly increase our system shipments and customer support. And we did it in a very disciplined manner that resulted in higher operating profits and free cash flow. We've now shipped all of the unmet backlog from earlier in the year, and our Q1 guidance gives you a direct look at the healthy demand trends we continue to see in our business.

首先來看我們第四季的業績。儘管面臨與新冠疫情相關的持續挑戰，我們公司仍實現了創紀錄的營收和每股收益，我對此感到非常高興。我們的團隊成功地大幅提高了系統出貨量和客戶支援水準。我們以非常嚴謹的方式完成了這項工作，從而獲得了更高的營業利潤和自由現金流。我們現在已經交付了今年早些時候所有未完成的積壓訂單，我們的第一季業績指引讓您可以直接了解我們在業務中持續看到的健康需求趨勢。

In Q4, we delivered revenue above the midpoint of our guidance across all of the segments, including record revenue in semi systems and AGS. We grew revenue by 25% versus the same period last year, increased non-GAAP operating profit by 49% year-on-year and delivered record non-GAAP EPS of $1.25, which was up 56% year-over-year. We also increased operating cash flow to over $1.3 billion, up 59% year-over-year.

第四季度，我們所有業務部門的收入均超過了預期中位數，其中半導體系統和AGS業務部門的收入創歷史新高。與去年同期相比，我們的營收成長了 25%，非 GAAP 營業利潤年增了 49%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘創下 1.25 美元的歷史新高，同比增長了 56%。我們的經營現金流也增加到超過 13 億美元，年增 59%。

About 2 months into our quarter, the U.S. government imposed a licensing requirement related to one of our foundry customers in China. This requirement reduced our revenue in Q4 and our guidance for Q1. We've already applied for licenses where needed to comply with the new rules.

在我們季度開始大約兩個月後，美國政府對我們在中國的一家代工廠客戶提出了許可要求。這項要求降低了我們第四季的營收以及對第一季的預期。為了遵守新規，我們已經申請了所需的許可證。

Turning to our full year results. I'm especially pleased with the growth of our semiconductor-related businesses. Semi Systems and AGS combined, grew by over 20% year-over-year. Our installed base business, which includes AGS plus 300-millimeter upgrades, grew by over 9% year-on-year and continues to represent close to 1/3 of Applied's revenue. This growing part of our company provides an annuity-like revenue stream that makes us more resilient across market cycles.

接下來來看看我們的全年業績。我對我們半導體相關業務的成長尤其感到滿意。半導體系統和AGS合計較去年同期成長超過20%。我們的安裝基礎業務（包括 AGS 和 300 毫米升級）年增超過 9%，並繼續佔 Applied 公司收入的近 1/3。公司這個不斷成長的業務部門提供了類似年金的收入來源，使我們在市場週期中更具韌性。

Within AGS, we've seen positive developments in our long-term service agreements. Until recently, the vast majority of our agreements had 1-year terms. But in 2020, about 1/3 of the agreements we signed had terms of at least 3 years. We've increased these extended service agreements by a factor of 10 over the past 3 years.

在AGS內部，我們看到了長期服務協議的積極進展。直到最近，我們絕大多數的協議期限都是一年。但在 2020 年，我們簽署的協議中約有三分之一的期限至少為 3 年。過去三年，我們將此類延保服務協議的數量增加了 10 倍。

This outstanding growth underscores the close working relationships we have with customers, who are using our data-enabled services over the life of a node to generate world-class yields output and costs. In fact, in 2020, we grew the installed base of our data-enabled tools by nearly 40%.

這項卓越的成長凸顯了我們與客戶之間緊密的合作關係，客戶在節點的整個生命週期內使用我們的數據驅動型服務，從而實現世界一流的產量和成本。事實上，2020 年，我們的數據驅動型工具的安裝量成長了近 40%。

For the company as a whole in 2020, we delivered record revenue in both semi systems and AGS. We increased non-GAAP gross margin by 110 basis points, invested 69% of non-GAAP OpEx in research and development, grew non-GAAP operating profit by 32% and increased EPS by 37%. We also generated $3.8 billion in operating cash flow, setting a new record and returned $1.44 billion to shareholders. We raised the dividend for the third year in a row, paid dividends of $787 million and allocated nearly $650 million to stock buybacks, repurchasing at an average price of $56.32. We increased cash on the balance sheet by nearly $2 billion as we prepared for the Kokusai Electric transaction.

2020 年，公司整體在半導體系統和 AGS 領域均實現了創紀錄的收入。我們將非GAAP毛利率提高了110個基點，將69%的非GAAP營運支出投入研發，非GAAP營業利潤成長了32%，每股盈餘成長了37%。我們還創造了 38 億美元的經營現金流，創下新紀錄，並向股東返還了 14.4 億美元。我們連續第三年提高了股息，支付了 7.87 億美元的股息，並將近 6.5 億美元用於股票回購，平均回購價格為每股 56.32 美元。為了準備收購國際電氣，我們的資產負債表上的現金增加了近 20 億美元。

In Q4, our stock buybacks were limited to $50 million as our legal department imposed a trading blackout out of an abundance of caution, in connection with our discussions with the Chinese regulatory agency that is reviewing the Kokusai Electric transaction. We continue to have constructive discussions and we're working to secure clearance for the transaction before the end of the calendar year.

第四季度，由於我們的法律部門出於謹慎考慮，在與正在審查國際電氣交易的中國監管機構進行討論期間實施了交易禁令，我們的股票回購規模被限制在 5000 萬美元。我們繼續進行建設性討論，並努力在年底前獲得交易批准。

Next, I'll share some color regarding the demand we see as we enter our new fiscal year. Applied's backlog reached nearly $6.7 billion in Q4, setting a new year-end record. The combined backlog of our semi-related businesses also set a year-end record, growing to nearly $5.5 billion. Our display backlog declined year-over-year. And as Gary discussed, we're tracking the leading indicators of the eventual recovery.

接下來，我將分享一些關於我們進入新財年後所看到的需求。應用材料公司第四季的積壓訂單接近 67 億美元，創下新的年終紀錄。我們相關業務的合併積壓訂單也創下了年末紀錄，成長至近 55 億美元。我們的展示品積壓訂單較去年同期下降。正如加里所討論的，我們正在追蹤最終復甦的領先指標。

Now I'll share our Q1 business outlook. We expect company revenue to be approximately $4.95 billion, plus or minus $200 million, with the midpoint up about 19% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP EPS to be about $1.26, plus or minus $0.06 or up nearly 30% year-over-year. Within this outlook, we project semiconductor systems revenue of around $3.45 billion, up nearly 23% year-over-year; AGS revenue of about $1.07 billion, up around 7% year-over-year; and display revenue of around $400 million, up about 20% year-on-year.

現在我將分享我們第一季的業務展望。我們預計公司營收約 49.5 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元，中間值年增約 19%。我們預期非GAAP每股收益約1.26美元，上下浮動0.06美元，年增近30%。在此展望中，我們預期半導體系統營收約為 34.5 億美元，年成長近 23%；AGS 營收約為 10.7 億美元，年成長約 7%；顯示器營收約 4 億美元，年成長約 20%。

We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 45.3% and which is higher year-over-year and lower sequentially due to near-term changes in product and customer mix. We expect non-GAAP OpEx to increase to $860 million, reflecting higher expenses from a 14-week quarter plus 1 month of annual merit increases, partially offset by holiday shutdown savings. Our Q1 guidance assumes a tax rate of around 12%, and a weighted average share count of around 925 million.

我們預計非GAAP毛利率約為45.3%，由於產品和客戶組合的近期變化，該數值將高於去年同期，但低於上一季。我們預期非GAAP營運支出將增加至8.6億美元，這反映了14週季度加上1個月年度績效工資成長帶來的支出增加，部分被假期停工節省所抵銷。我們第一季的業績預期假設稅率約為 12%，加權平均股數約為 9.25 億股。

In summary, I'm pleased that Applied delivered record performance in Q4 and has strong momentum entering our new fiscal year. Our backlog is at record levels as our products and technology generate strong customer pull. Our installed base business is becoming larger and more resilient with growth in our data-enabled services and multiyear service agreements. I'm incredibly proud of our teams for supporting our customers under challenging global circumstances while delivering record earnings and increased cash flow to our shareholders.

總而言之，我很高興Applied在第四季度取得了創紀錄的業績，並在進入新的財年時保持了強勁的發展勢頭。我們的產品和技術具有強大的客戶吸引力，因此我們的訂單積壓量達到了歷史最高水準。隨著資料賦能服務和多年服務協議的成長，我們的客戶基礎業務規模越來越大，韌性也越來越強。我為我們的團隊感到無比自豪，他們在充滿挑戰的全球環境下為客戶提供支持，同時為股東創造了創紀錄的收益和不斷增長的現金流。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

麥克，現在開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan (Operator Instructions). Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，丹（操作員說明）。操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse 的一句話。

I guess for my first question, if I look at your DRAM business and make assumptions around your January quarter, it looks like you're going to grow about mid-30% for DRAM. And that's far better than what we're seeing industry-wide. So I guess can you discuss what's driving that outperformance, including some discussion on your success with conductor etch? And how should we think about your share of wallet for DRAM, given that that's probably the fastest-growing subsegment in calendar '21?

我想，對於我的第一個問題，如果我看一下你們的DRAM業務，並根據你們一月份的季度業績做出假設，看起來你們的DRAM業務將會成長30%左右。這比我們目前在整個行業中看到的情況要好得多。所以我想請您談談是什麼因素促成了這種優異的業績，包括您在導體蝕刻方面取得的成功？鑑於 DRAM 可能是 2021 年成長最快的細分市場，我們應該如何看待您在 DRAM 領域的錢包份額？

Yes. C.J., I'll take the question. As you pointed out, our DRAM business is showing significant signs of strength this year. We've built momentum throughout the year. And we expect to close the year very strong. As we think about the overall growth rate of the DRAM market in this year against the backdrop of an industry that's probably growing 10% to 15%, probably at the high end of that range for overall WFE. Our overall systems business is going to be up over 25% for the calendar year. Against that DRAM as a market is probably a couple of points higher than the overall industry. So based on the math you walked through, you can see that the company is significantly outperforming.

是的。C.J.，我來回答這個問題。正如您所指出的，我們今年的DRAM業務展現出了明顯的強勁勢頭。我們全年都在穩步發展。我們預計今年將以強勁的勢頭收官。當我們考慮今年DRAM市場的整體成長率時，要考慮到整個產業的成長率可能在10%到15%之間，這可能處於WFE整體成長率範圍的高端。我們整體系統業務在今年將成長超過 25%。相比之下，DRAM 市場可能比整個產業高出幾個百分點。所以根據你剛才的計​​算，可以看出這家公司的表現明顯優於預期。

On last quarter's call, Gary talked about the momentum we're seeing from a conductor etch standpoint. So the team is performing really, really well there. And then as you think about things like high-K metal gate to get the I/O speeds on and off the DRAM device, we've been talking for a while about that inflection coming into the market and we're just really well positioned from a technology standpoint to drive our customers' road map and seeing strong adoption. So we feel really good about how we're performing against the backdrop of a good market, but clearly strong performance, and we're really encouraged by what we see going forward. And we would expect this strength to continue into next year as we continue to push our customers' road map and drive strong adoption of the technology.

在上個季度的電話會議上，Gary 談到了我們從導體蝕刻角度看到的勢頭。所以這支隊伍在那裡的表現真的非常出色。然後，當您考慮諸如高K金屬閘極之類的東西來提高DRAM設備的I/O速度時，我們已經討論了一段時間，這種轉變即將進入市場，從技術角度來看，我們確實處於非常有利的位置，可以推動客戶的路線圖並看到強勁的採用。因此，在市場環境良好、業績表現強勁的背景下，我們對自身的表現感到非常滿意，並且對未來的發展前景充滿信心。我們預計這種強勁勢頭將延續到明年，因為我們將繼續推進客戶的路線圖並推動技術的廣泛應用。

Yes, maybe C.J., just to add a little bit more color. This is Gary. For high speed, the periphery is moving to more like, as Dan said, more logic-like processes where that's in the sweet spot of where we have leadership with a number of different products. So that's part of a unique inflection that's really fueling our growth in DRAM. And I talked, I think, in the last earnings call about the growth that we've seen in our DRAM conductor etch, gaining about 30 points of share since 2016. And so with the key technology inflections for the high-speed memory and also the strength of the Sym3 and etch, really, that's fueling our growth, and we feel really good that we're going to continue to enable the future inflections and continue to grow -- outgrow the market in DRAM.

是的，或許可以加上 C.J.，只是為了增添一些色彩。這是加里。對於高速應用而言，週邊設備正朝著更像丹所說的邏輯過程發展，而這正是我們擁有許多不同產品領先優勢的最佳領域。所以，這是推動 DRAM 業務成長的獨特轉捩點之一。我記得在上次財報電話會議上，我談到了我們在 DRAM 導體蝕刻方面的成長，自 2016 年以來，市佔率成長了約 30 個百分點。因此，高速記憶體的關鍵技術轉折點，以及 Sym3 和蝕刻技術的強大實力，確實推動了我們的成長，我們非常有信心能夠繼續推動未來的轉折點，並繼續成長——在 DRAM 市場中超越市場。

Very helpful. And as my follow-up, I guess perhaps, if you could focus on domestic China and overall China. I think the concern out there is that the types of numbers we're seeing is not sustainable, particularly given what's going on with SMIC. But curious if you could offer thoughts on the greater breadth of spending that we'll probably see in calendar '21? And then how we should think about multinationals layering in? And what impact that will have on overall CapEx coming out of China?

很有幫助。作為後續問題，我想，或許您可以專注於中國國內和中國整體情況。我認為大家擔心的是，我們目前看到的這種數字是不可持續的，特別是考慮到中芯國際（SMIC）的情況。不過，我很好奇您能否就我們可能在 2021 年看到的更廣泛的支出情況談談您的看法？那我們該如何看待跨國公司的介入呢？這將對中國整體資本支出產生什麼影響？

Yes. Sure, C.J. Let me jump in on that and see if Gary wants to add anything at the end. From an overall market standpoint in calendar year 2020, we see meaningful spend by both the domestic customers as well as the multinational customers. And if I were to think about weighting of that spend, I would say it favors the domestic market over the multinationals, but both groups of customers are having meaningful spend. I think what you see is a broad base of investments. You're seeing investments across 200-millimeter geometries, 300-millimeter geometries. And within 300-millimeter geometries, you're seeing investments in NAND, DRAM, foundry/logic, so all device types. We think that continues into 2021.

是的。當然可以，C.J.。讓我插一句，看看蓋瑞最後還有什麼要補充的。從 2020 年的整體市場角度來看，我們看到國內客戶和跨國客戶都有顯著的支出。如果讓我考慮這些支出的權重，我會說國內市場比跨國公司更受青睞，但這兩類客戶的支出都很可觀。我認為你看到的是廣泛的投資基礎。你會看到對 200 毫米幾何尺寸和 300 毫米幾何尺寸的投資。在 300 毫米的幾何尺寸範圍內，你會看到對 NAND、DRAM、代工/邏輯等所有裝置類型的投資。我們認為這種情況會持續到2021年。

We probably won't see the growth rates that we did in 2020. It's going to be a strong year but you certainly won't see those growth rates. From a growth standpoint, I would expect multinationals to show more growth than the domestic customers but still strong spend in both categories. So we see it's a good market. We continue to see strength in China and expect to see that for the foreseeable future as they build their ecosystem in a slow, disciplined manner.

我們可能不會再看到像 2020 年那樣高的成長率了。今年經濟情勢不錯，但絕對不會達到先前的成長率。從成長的角度來看，我預期跨國公司將比國內客戶展現更高的成長，但兩類客戶的支出仍將保持強勁勢頭。所以我們看到這是一個不錯的市場。我們持續看到中國的強勁勢頭，並預計在可預見的未來，隨著他們以緩慢、自律的方式建立自己的生態系統，這種勢頭仍將持續下去。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Congratulations on the solid results. Just a follow-up on C.J.'s question on China, Dan. You talked about in your prepared comments that the ruling against SMIC did impact your fiscal fourth quarter, fiscal first quarter. I wonder if you can just confirm with us how much of an impact was it. And does SMIC now represent 0 within the forward-looking numbers? Or how are we thinking about kind of the impact there?

祝賀你們取得如此優異的成績。丹，我只是想就C.J.關於中國的問題做個後續提問。您在事先準備好的評論中提到，針對中芯國際的裁決確實對貴公司的第四財季和第一財季產生了影響。我想請您確認一下，這件事究竟造成了多大的影響。那麼，中芯國際目前在未來預測數據中是否佔比為0？或者，我們該如何看待這方面的影響？

Yes. Thanks, John. Here's what I can share with you. As you can imagine, we probably don't want to be too detailed on what any 1 customer is doing. But the licensing requirement that we talked about, it was put in place about 2/3 of the way through our fiscal fourth quarter. So we saw about 4 or 5 weeks exposure to that new requirement. As we said in the prepared comments, Q4 revenue and Q1 guidance would have been higher if those restrictions had not been in place. So we're complying with the new rules. We've already applied for licenses where we need them. Trade situation remains fluid. So we don't want to speculate about the future. But certainly, the revenue in Q4 and guide for Q1 would have been higher absent that requirement.

是的。謝謝你，約翰。以下是我可以和你們分享的內容。您可以想像，我們可能不想過於詳細地了解任何一個客戶的具體行為。但我們討論過的許可要求，是在我們第四財季大約三分之二的時候才開始實施的。因此，我們經歷了大約 4 到 5 週的適應期，以應對這項新要求。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，如果沒有這些限制，第四季營收和第一季業績預期將會更高。所以我們正在遵守新規定。我們已經申請了所需的許可證。貿易情勢依然瞬息萬變。所以我們不想對未來進行猜測。但可以肯定的是，如果沒有這項要求，第四季的營收和第一季的預期收入都會更高。

As you know, we've been in China for a very long time. We've got a broad base of relationships, and it's across all device types and we would expect the China market to continue to be strong for us going forward. And again, we're working with the governments to get the licensing requirement satisfied.

如您所知，我們在中國已經很久了。我們擁有廣泛的客戶關係網絡，涵蓋所有設備類型，我們預計中國市場未來將繼續保持強勁的成長動能。我們再次與政府合作，以滿足許可要求。

That's helpful. And then maybe for my follow-up for Gary. Gary, a lot of the conversation around U.S.-China trade tensions that there had been concerns around restriction of shipping equipment into China. But there's clearly a second side of the story where a lot of countries now are looking at the strategic necessity for semiconductor capacity. You have things like the CHIPS Act in the U.S., you have TSMC announcing a foundry in Arizona earlier this year. EU officials have been talking about perhaps incentivizing more domestic production. Japan, the same. So I'm just kind of curious, given your vantage point in the industry, how important of a trend do you think this will be, this idea of regionalization of semi capacity? And what kind of potential growth driver could it be for your business?

那很有幫助。然後或許我會就加里的情況做後續跟進。加里，圍繞美中貿易緊張局勢的許多討論都集中在限制向中國運輸設備的問題。但顯然還有另一面，許多國家現在都在考慮半導體產能的戰略必要性。在美國，有《晶片保護和創新法案》（CHIPS Act），今年早些時候，台積電宣佈在亞利桑那州建立晶圓代工廠。歐盟官員一直在討論或許可以激勵國內生產。日本也一樣。所以我很好奇，鑑於您在行業中的地位，您認為半導體產能區域化這一理念會是一個多麼重要的趨勢？這對你的企業來說，可能帶來哪些潛在的成長動力？

Yes. Thanks for the question, John. So first off, I would say that, really, the major focus for all our customers is to drive their road maps, deliver the lowest power, highest performance chips at the best cost And I deeply believe that the future road map is going to look very different than the past. I've talked before about classic Moore's Law and 2D scaling not being enough to enable the future AI infrastructure at the edge and in the cloud. So I do believe kind of aligned with your question that this is highly strategic for many countries in many regions. And I do -- we do see that certainly, we see some near-term trends with big customers moving to new regions in alignment with that trend. And I think that, that's going to continue. So it definitely creates an opportunity for Applied going forward.

是的。謝謝你的提問，約翰。首先，我想說，我們所有客戶的主要關注點實際上是推動他們的產品路線圖，以最優的成本提供功耗最低、性能最高的晶片。我深信，未來的產品路線圖將與過去截然不同。我之前說過，經典的摩爾定律和二維擴展不足以在邊緣和雲端實現未來的人工智慧基礎設施。所以，我認為這與你的問題有點吻合，這對許多地區的許多國家來說都具有高度戰略意義。的確，我們看到了一些近期趨勢，有些大客戶正順應這個趨勢遷移到新的地區。我認為這一趨勢還會持續下去。因此，這無疑為應用科技公司未來的發展創造了機會。

Certainly, as these customers are moving to new regions, the support in terms of accelerating their R&D, their ramp, transfer of technologies into these new regions, all of that creates a great service opportunity for us. And then even more important, as I said, I do believe the future is going to look different than the past. We're at an inflection point in the industry relative to how you drive the technology forward. One of our biggest customers 2 months ago talked about their road map beyond 2020 to double energy-efficient computing every 2 years. And if you go look at the slide 2 months ago, it exactly aligns what I've been talking about with the 5 elements of the playbook around new architectures, new materials, new structures, new ways to shrink and new ways to connect chips together with advanced packaging.

當然，隨著這些客戶向新地區轉移，在加速其研發、擴大規模、將技術轉移到這些新地區等方面的支持，為我們創造了巨大的服務機會。而且更重要的是，正如我所說，我相信未來將會與過去有所不同。我們正處於產業發展的轉折點，這將決定我們如何推動技術向前發展。兩個月前，我們的一位大客戶談到了他們 2020 年以後的發展路線圖，即每兩年將節能運算能力提高一倍。如果你去看兩個月前的幻燈片，它與我一直在談論的內容完全吻合，即圍繞新架構、新材料、新結構、縮小尺寸的新方法以及使用先進封裝將晶片連接在一起的新方法這五個要素。

So exactly what we've been talking about. And Applied is in a really great position with innovative products and integrated solutions to enable that new PPACt playbook. So I think we've never been in a better position. And again, I do believe that the industry is at an inflection point, and the countries and the companies that are best aligned to this new playbook, and get their first they are going to win, it's very, very important for the whole AI infrastructure going forward.

這正是我們一直在討論的。Applied 憑藉其創新產品和整合解決方案，在實現新的 PPACt 策略方面處於非常有利的地位。所以我認為我們從未處於如此有利的地位。而且，我仍然認為人工智慧產業正處於轉折點，那些最能適應這種新模式並率先取得成功的國家和公司將會贏得勝利，這對整個人工智慧基礎設施的未來發展非常非常重要。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, my first question is on inspection. I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about your business being up 46%. And I think it was your systems business was up 46% in fiscal 2020. You probably outperformed most of your peers, if not all your peers during that time frame. Where are you seeing the most traction in inspection? And how should we think about sustainability for that business into 2021? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

Gary，我的第一個問題是關於驗車的。我認為您在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，您的企業成長了 46%。我認為你們的系統業務在 2020 財年成長了 46%。在那段時間裡，你的表現很可能超過了大多數同齡人，甚至可能超過了所有同齡人。您認為檢測領域最受關注的是什麼？那麼，我們該如何看待該企業在 2021 年的永續發展呢？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. Thanks, Toshiya, for the question. So absolutely, the inspection business is a real bright spot for the company. And as you mentioned, we grew the systems revenue by 46%. We have a new optical inspection system and new e-beam products that are seeing strong initial adoption with leading customers. And in both areas, we have a lot of room to grow, and we'll make an official launch fairly soon on some of these new capabilities.

是的。謝謝 Toshiya 的提問。所以，檢驗業務絕對是公司的一大亮點。正如您所提到的，我們的系統收入成長了 46%。我們推出了一種新型光學檢測系統和新型電子束產品，這些產品在領先客戶中獲得了強勁的初期市場認可。這兩個領域我們都還有很大的發展空間，我們很快就會正式推出其中的一些新功能。

And the other thing I would say, certainly, the -- in this business, we have some really, really great leading technology. And the other aspect that's important for Applied is the connection in driving the PPACt road map, the analysis of all of these new innovations. When you think about wiring to lower resistance to improve the power or gate all around for high-performance transistors, having these unique imaging capabilities, and we have launched a product that has dramatically higher resolution than any product -- e-beam product that's on the market today, being able to see those data all around structures and understand how to drive the different films and shaping the structures and modifying the structures, all of that tied together is also tremendously synergistic with the rest of our business and driving the PPACt road map.

另外，我還要說的是，在這個產業裡，我們擁有一些非常非常優秀的領先技術。對於應用材料公司而言，另一個重要的方面是推動 PPACt 路線圖的聯繫，以及對所有這些新創新的分析。當您考慮透過佈線降低電阻來改善高性能電晶體的功率或閘極時，我們擁有獨特的成像能力，並且我們推出了一款分辨率遠高於目前市場上任何電子束產品的產品，能夠看到結構周圍的數據，了解如何驅動不同的薄膜、塑造結構和修改結構，所有這些都與我們業務的其他部分具有巨大的協同效應，並推動了 PPACt 路線的發展。

So we're really in the early adoption of some of these new capabilities. I'm very confident that '21 and beyond, we're going to have really good results from our PDC business. But also, I'm really excited about the connectivity to the rest of Applied's business in accelerating the PPACt road map for customers.

所以，我們目前還處於這些新功能的早期應用階段。我非常有信心，從 2021 年及以後，我們的 PDC 業務將會取得非常好的成績。此外，我也非常興奮能夠與 Applied 的其他業務聯繫起來，從而加速 PPACt 為客戶制定的路線圖。

Great. And then, Dan, as my follow-up, just on gross margin. I know there are multiple sort of levers, both to the upside and the downside that could impact gross margins, and you guided to a slightly lower number for fiscal Q1. But when you think about gross margins longer term. I think at your most recent Analyst Day, you put up a 47% number, if I recall correctly. But is that still sort of the right target for you internally? Or is it higher or lower? How should we think about gross margins on a multiyear cadence?

偉大的。然後，丹，作為我的後續問題，就毛利率而言。我知道有很多因素，包括利多因素和利空因素，都可能影響毛利率，而您也曾預測第一財季的毛利率會略微下降。但從長遠來看，毛利率會更高。我記得沒錯的話，在你們最近一次分析師日上，你們公佈的成長率是 47%。但從內部來看，這仍然是你們的合適目標嗎？或者說它更高還是更低？我們應該如何從多年周期的角度來考慮毛利率？

Yes, Toshiya. So from a gross margin standpoint, the company is performing really well. If you think about what Gary said in the prepared comments, in fiscal year '20, we're up 110 basis points year-over-year. Our fiscal Q4, we just reported, we're up 190 basis points year-over-year. And then like you pointed out, we see some different mix as we look into our fiscal Q1. It's down a little bit sequentially, but still up year-over-year. We think that's a little temporary and that mix is going to reverse itself as we look out into fiscal Q2.

是的，俊也。因此，從毛利率的角度來看，該公司表現非常出色。如果你想想 Gary 在準備好的評論中所說的話，在 2020 財年，我們比去年同期成長了 110 個基點。我們剛公佈的第四財季業績顯示，年增190個基點。正如您所指出的，當我們審視第一財季時，我們看到了一些不同的組合。雖然較上季略有下降，但年比仍有所成長。我們認為這只是暫時的，隨著我們展望第二財季，這種結構將會逆轉。

So we think the company is executing well in a difficult environment. When we think about the long-term gross margin, I think the best way to describe it would be 45% plus or minus 2 points, depending on where we are in the cycle. And if you look at the quarter, we just printed, 45.7. And then you factor in some of the headwinds we're experiencing in the current environment due to COVID and the pandemic, we would be at the upper end of that range we've referenced of 45 plus or minus 2 points. So I think that model, that framework around gross margin holds and the company is performing well to that. As the legacy impacts and the headwinds from the pandemic begin to wane, I think you would see the performance in the current environment, reflecting that framework around long-term gross margin.

因此，我們認為該公司在困難的環境下表現良好。當我們考慮長期毛利率時，我認為最好的描述方式是 45% 上下浮動 2 個百分點，取決於我們所處的週期階段。如果你看一下我們剛剛印發的季度財報，數字是 45.7。再加上我們目前因新冠疫情而面臨的一些不利因素，我們將處於我們之前提到的 45 點上下浮動 2 點的範圍內。所以我認為這種以毛利率為核心的模式和框架是成立的，而且公司在這方面表現良好。隨著疫情帶來的遺留影響和不利因素逐漸減弱，我認為你會看到公司在當前環境下的表現，這反映了以長期毛利率為核心的框架。

Our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Gary, you made an interesting comment in your prepared remarks that you guys can grow independent of the mix, which is an important distinction from some of your peers, which are more leveraged toward memory or logic. And you talked about the outperformance in etch and inspection markets. Looking into next year, where you are most excited about, etch or inspection or different markets?

Gary，你在事先準備好的演講稿中發表了一個有趣的評論，說你們可以獨立於混合模式而成長，這與你們的一些同齡人有很大的區別，他們更依賴記憶或邏輯。您還談到了蝕刻和檢測市場的優異表現。展望明年，您最期待的是蝕刻、檢測還是其他市場？

Yes. So I would say if I look at what am I most excited about, it's what I talked about earlier that I really believe that the industry is at an important inflection point. And you can see this also many leading customers and companies in the ecosystem aligning around our view that classic Moore's Law and 2D scaling is not going to be able to enable the future AI infrastructure at the edge and in the cloud. And you see this playing out in terms of the marketplace from a competitive standpoint. The companies that deliver lower power, higher performance at the best cost faster than others, that's the fundamental driver of all of our customers in the ecosystem. So Applied is in a great position to outperform because we have many unique technologies and combination of products that are used to create, shape, modify, analyze and connect structures and devices.

是的。所以，如果要說我最興奮的是什麼，那就是我之前提到的，我真的相信這個行業正處於一個重要的轉捩點。您還可以看到，生態系統中的許多領先客戶和公司都認同我們的觀點，即經典的摩爾定律和二維擴展無法在邊緣和雲端實現未來的人工智慧基礎設施。從競爭的角度來看，這一點在市場中也反映了出來。那些能夠以最優成本更快提供更低功耗、更高效能的公司，是我們生態系統中所有客戶的基本驅動力。因此，Applied 處於非常有利的地位，能夠取得優異的成績，因為我們擁有許多獨特的技術和產品組合，這些技術和產品用於創建、塑造、修改、分析和連接結構和設備。

So I think I talked on the last call about our performance in some of our deposition businesses. Last year, we gained 8 points of combined share in Epi, PVD, CVD amounting to about $5.2 billion. This year, we grew our metals deposition business 42% to $2.2 billion. So these leadership businesses are very key to enabling next-generation transistor and wiring, materials and structures and combined with other unique capabilities, I'm really optimistic about our opportunities as we go forward to drive the PPACt road map.

所以我想我在上次電話會議上談到了我們在一些取證業務方面的表現。去年，我們在 Epi、PVD 和 CVD 領域的市佔率合計成長了 8 個百分點，總額約 52 億美元。今年，我們的金屬沉積業務成長了 42%，達到 22 億美元。因此，這些領先企業對於實現下一代電晶體和佈線、材料和結構至關重要，再加上其他獨特的能力，我對我們推進 PPACt 路線圖的機會感到非常樂觀。

And as you mentioned, etch, we're also performing very well in etch, significant growth in this last year. We've expanded beyond our strength in memory to foundry and logic, where we're winning steps. We're winning EUV steps as customers are moving to future technology nodes and really, really, really great performance there. It's -- that's really based on our new Sym3 platform, probably the best platform in the history of Applied Materials and there are real fundamental advantages. One is conductance. Conductance is where you remove the etch materials from the chamber, so you're not redepositing on the structures and causing yield and performance issues also particles that are deposited on the chamber. So that's just a fundamental advantage of that particular technology.

正如您所提到的，蝕刻業務方面，我們也表現得非常好，去年實現了顯著成長。我們已經從記憶體領域擴展到鑄造和邏輯領域，並在這些領域取得了進展。隨著客戶轉向未來的技術節點，我們在 EUV 技術方面取得了巨大成功，並且效能非常出色。它——這完全基於我們全新的 Sym3 平台，這可能是應用材料公司歷史上最好的平台，它具有真正的根本優勢。一是電導率。電導法是指將蝕刻材料從腔室中移除，這樣就不會再沉積在結構上，從而避免良率和性能問題，也不會沉積在腔室上的顆粒。所以，這就是這項技術的一個根本優勢。

Also, I'm on the phone often with R&D leaders last night with one of the -- our top logic customers and we are seeing yield benefits with the Sym3. They're seeing yield benefits with the Sym3 with new coatings that we've enabled on that platform that, again, is giving us better particle performance. So etch, again, very, very good momentum. And I talked already about inspection and we are in the early phases of adoption of some new products. I'm also very optimistic about that business as we go forward. But the really key thing that I'm most excited about is I do believe the industry is at an inflection point. The future is not classic Moore's Law 2D scaling. And you look at what I talked about relative to creating and modifying and analyzing, connecting all of the structures and devices.

另外，昨晚我和我們最重要的邏輯晶片客戶之一的研發負責人通了電話，我們看到 Sym3 帶來了良率提升。他們發現，Sym3 平台採用了我們新推出的塗層，提高了產量，這再次為我們帶來了更好的顆粒性能。所以，再一次，勢頭非常非常好。我之前已經談到了檢驗問題，我們目前正處於一些新產品採用的早期階段。我對這項業務未來的發展也非常樂觀。但我最興奮的是，我相信這個產業正處於一個轉捩點。未來並非經典的摩爾定律二維擴展模式。然後你看看我剛才談到的關於創建、修改和分析，以及連接所有結構和設備的內容。

We're really in a unique position. So again, we are doing really well in different environments from a mix perspective. And I believe that we're at the foundation of enabling the technologies for this future AI infrastructure.

我們現在處境非常特殊。所以，從混合的角度來看，我們在不同的環境中都表現得非常好。我相信，我們正處於建立未來人工智慧基礎設施所需技術的基礎階段。

Great. And as my follow-up, Dan, domestic China WFE still in that $9 billion to $10 billion range for this year.

偉大的。丹，我的後續問題是，今年中國國內WFE市場規模仍在90億至100億美元之間。

Yes, that's correct. Our view on that hasn't changed. We've been pretty consistent on that over time. It's going to be in that $9 billion to $10 billion range.

是的，沒錯。我們對此的看法並沒有改變。一直以來，我們在這方面都保持著相當一致的態度。金額應該在90億到100億美元之間。

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them. First one for Dan. Dan, are we still targeting a December end close for the Kokusai acquisition? Or can it be delayed further? And along the same path, any kind of buyback increase? Is it really tied to the outcome of what happens with Kokusai? And then I had a follow-up for Gary.

我有兩個。第一個是給丹的。丹，我們還是計劃在12月底完成對Kokusai的收購嗎？或者還能進一步延後嗎？沿著同樣的路徑，是否會有任何形式的回購增加？這真的與國際事件的最終結果有關嗎？然後我還要給加里一個後續問題。

Sure, Krish. So as you know, we've gotten 5 of the 6 regulatory authorities to approve the transaction. We're constructively engaged with the remaining authority and we continue to be optimistic that we're going to receive clearance by the end of the calendar year. So we'll stay focused on that.

當然可以，克里什。如您所知，我們已經獲得了 6 個監管機構中的 5 個的批准，完成了這項交易。我們正與剩餘的審批部門進行建設性溝通，我們仍然樂觀地認為，我們將在年底前獲得批准。所以我們會繼續專注於此。

From a buyback standpoint, once we close the transaction, integrate the asset, I think we'll come back to the investment community and put forward a combined company model over the next several years to give investors a perspective of how the combined company will perform part of that communication, we'll talk about what our capital allocation strategy going forward is. But I wouldn't be surprised if it's what we've been doing now for quite time, which is very shareholder-friendly in terms of giving all excess cash back to shareholders and big buyers of our stock. Given what we see happening from an overall market standpoint, the structural growth we see and the execution of this company against that opportunity, we see our industry going structurally larger, higher highs, higher lows. And we think there's a real opportunity to put capital to work from a share repurchase standpoint. So we'll probably continue what we've been doing now for many years. But we'll have that conversation once we get the investment community together post close of the transaction.

從回購的角度來看，一旦我們完成交易並整合資產，我認為我們將在未來幾年內向投資界提出合併後的公司模型，讓投資者了解合併後的公司將如何運作。作為溝通的一部分，我們將討論我們未來的資本配置策略。但如果這正是我們長期以來一直在做的事情，我不會感到驚訝，因為這種做法非常有利於股東，將所有多餘的現金回饋給股東和我們股票的大買家。從整體市場角度來看，我們看到了結構性成長，也看到了公司抓住這一機會的執行情況，因此我們認為我們的行業將呈現結構性更大的增長，更高的峰值，更高的谷底。我們認為，從股票回購的角度來看，這是一個真正能夠有效利用資本的機會。所以我們可能會繼續做我們多年來一直在做的事情。但我們會等到交易完成後，與投資界人士聚在一起討論這個問題。

Got it. And then a longer-term question for Gary. Gary, on China, I'm not looking at it from a political angle but from a long-term business and philosophical standpoint, do you think it's good business practice for AMAT or other U.S. semi cap to ship to China? Because on one side, you're balancing the needs of your customers, but also on the flip side, it might enable local competition or reverse engineering or how do you protect your IP. So I'm kind of curious, how do you balance those 2 as China gets bigger?

知道了。然後，我想問加里一個更長遠的問題。Gary，關於中國，我不是從政治角度來看，而是從長期的商業和哲學角度來看，你認為AMAT或其他美國半導體公司向中國發貨是良好的商業實踐嗎？一方面，你要平衡客戶的需求；但另一方面，這可能會引發本地競爭或逆向工程，或如何保護你的智慧財產權。所以我很好奇，隨著中國經濟的擴張，你們是如何平衡這兩者之間的關係的？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Local competition has been a factor for us for many, many years in many different regions. And I just keep coming back to the leading companies want to work with the most innovative technologies and products. And there's just no way to go forward with the technology road maps if you don't have the combinations of those different technologies. And as I've said before, I just deeply believe that the future doesn't look like the past. I don't believe that following the classic 2D Moore's Law playbook is the path forward for the industry or to enable this AI infrastructure.

是的。謝謝你的提問。多年來，在許多不同地區，本地競爭一直是影響我們的重要因素。我一直認為，領先的公司都希望與最具創新性的技術和產品合作。如果沒有這些不同技術的組合，技術路線圖就根本無法推進。正如我之前所說，我深信未來不會像過去那樣。我不認為遵循經典的二維摩爾定律模式是該產業的未來發展方向，也不是建立人工智慧基礎設施的正確途徑。

So there's going to be tremendous innovation. I mentioned earlier, one of the -- one of our leading customers 2 months ago, if you look at their architecture day, and they talked about the road forward beyond 2020 for energy-efficient computing to double every 2 years, and it was exactly aligned with the things that I've been talking about over the last 2 years with the new architectures, new structures, new materials, EUV enhancements and new ways to connect the chips together with 3D advanced packaging. So I just believe there's going to be tremendous innovation. All of this is going to be a moving target relative to the products.

所以將會出現巨大的創新。我之前提到過，我們的一位主要客戶在兩個月前的架構日上談到了2020年後節能運算的發展方向，目標是每兩年翻一番。這與我過去兩年一直在談論的新架構、新結構、新材料、EUV增強技術以及利用3D先進封裝將晶片連接在一起的新方法完全一致。所以我相信未來會有巨大的創新。所有這些都將隨著產品的發展而不斷變化。

And the other thing is you have the opportunity to connect these products and technologies together in unique ways to manage the interfaces and the interfaces on these structures are becoming much more critical than they've ever been in the past. So we know -- we've talked about some innovations in the transistor where we can enable enormous improvements in leakage current or drive current, and it really comes from being able to combine these technologies together, not oxidized or damage those interfaces. Those are completely unique capabilities that you really -- having this portfolio is a tremendous advantage, a very unique advantage for Applied.

另一方面，您有機會以獨特的方式將這些產品和技術連接起來，以管理接口，而這些結構上的接口正變得比以往任何時候都更加重要。所以我們知道——我們已經討論過晶體管的一些創新，這些創新可以極大地改善漏電流或驅動電流，而這實際上來自於將這些技術結合起來，而不是氧化或損壞這些介面。這些都是獨一無二的能力，擁有這樣的能力組合對應用科技來說是一項巨大的優勢，一項非常獨特的優勢。

So look, I think that the world will operate the best, certainly with fair and free trade and that these inflections that we're seeing today around AI, biggest inflections of our lifetimes will transform every industry, and Applied is right at the foundation of those inflections.

所以，我認為，在公平自由的貿易環境下，世界將會運作得最好。我們今天看到的這些圍繞人工智慧的轉折點，是我們一生中最大的轉折點，將改變每個行業，而應用材料公司正處於這些轉折點的基礎之上。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

I had 2. I guess, Gary, first, I know you think about capital intensity a lot. And I've seen your charts, and I totally agree with the 10.5% to 11% longer-term WFE intensity. And it seems like if you strip out some of the duplicative spending today, there's probably at least $3 billion to $4 billion in China that's not backed by revenue. So it seems like if you just strip that out, we're probably closer to like 12% right now. So I know when you think longer term, you do a lot of modeling about longer-term WFE. But when you kind of think about where WFE can go and you build out an underlying semiconductor revenue number. Is it fair to use like a 12% sort of a real or a core WFE intensity number? And then you can like layer on top of that spending that you think might happen because of the issues that John had mentioned before, but that's not real dollars that's backed by revenue. So the question is, is that 12% a good number?

我有兩點。我想，Gary，首先，我知道你經常考慮資本密集度。我看過你的圖表，我完全同意長期 WFE 強度為 10.5% 至 11%。而且，如果剔除目前一些重複的支出，中國可能至少有 30 億到 40 億美元的支出沒有收入支持。所以，如果把那部分去掉，我們現在的比例可能接近 12%。所以我知道，當你考慮長期發展時，你會對長期勞動支出進行大量的建模。但當你仔細思考WFE的發展方向，並建立一個基礎半導體收入數字時，你會發現…使用 12% 這樣的實際或核心 WFE 強度值是否合理？然後，你也可以把由於約翰之前提到的問題而可能發生的支出，疊加到這些支出之上，但這並不是有收入支持的實際資金。所以問題是，12% 這個數字好嗎？

Tim, this is Dan. I'll jump in on this one. So I do think 12% is a good number to start with. Do I think there's an upward bias on that over time, given what we see from a technology road map standpoint? Yes, I think you can make that argument. But I think 12% is a good number to lock in on.

提姆，我是丹。我也來參與一下。所以我認為12%是一個不錯的起始數字。從技術路線圖的角度來看，我認為隨著時間的推移，這種趨勢會向上發展嗎？是的，我認為你可以這樣論證。但我認為12%是比較適合的數字。

Just a couple more perspectives on it. We talk about when 300-millimeter came in around the 2000 time frame, we saw multiple concurrent investments in both wafer size technologies, and we saw probably 17%. So that's probably an all-time high. Now what you saw is the 300-millimeter wafer size technology came into the industry and all of the efficiency gains that came with it, as well as the consolidation of our customer base. We hit a low point in 2013 at about 9%, and it's been on a steady upward trajectory since then. And so we think the trend is a pretty good one.

再補充幾點看法。我們談到 300 毫米晶圓在 2000 年左右出現的時候，我們看到對兩種晶圓尺寸技術的多項同時投資，並且我們看到了大約 17% 的投資。所以這可能是歷史最高紀錄了。現在你們看到的是 300 毫米晶圓尺寸技術進入行業，以及隨之而來的所有效率提升，還有我們客戶群的整合。2013年我們跌至谷底，約9%，此後一直呈現穩定上升趨勢。所以我們認為這個趨勢相當不錯。

The other thing I would point you to, and maybe this is a little bit of a different way of thinking about the industry. If you take that low point of capital intensity and you combine 2012 and 2013 as a combined 2-year window and then compare it to the next 2-year combined window of '13 and '14, compare that to the next 2-year window of '14 and '15 and onwards, when you do that exercise out to 2021 and what you'll see is each successive 2-year windows with an upwardly sloping line. And so we think our industry has gone from no growth cyclical to growth with an upward sloping trend line, and we'll see higher highs and higher lows as that thesis plays out. And so we feel really good about where this industry is going in support of all the thematic trends that Gary has talked about for many quarters now.

我還要指出一點，這或許是一種看待這個產業略有不同的方式。如果你找到資本密集度的低點，將 2012 年和 2013 年合併為一個兩年窗口，然後將其與接下來的兩年窗口（2013 年和 2014 年）進行比較，再與接下來的兩年窗口（2014 年和 2015 年）進行比較，以此類推，直到 2021 年，你會呈現出每個傾斜的兩年窗口。因此，我們認為我們的行業已經從零成長週期轉變為上升趨勢的成長，隨著這一論點的實現，我們將看到更高的高峰和更高的低谷。因此，我們對這個行業的發展方向感到非常樂觀，這支持了 Gary 在過去幾季一直在談論的所有主題趨勢。

Yes. Yes. Got it, Dan. And then I guess my second question is just on DRAM. I know, Gary, you sort of emphasized that DRAM is going to outgrow NAND on a percentage basis next year, which, I guess, sounds a little ominous for DRAM. But can you put that in the context of demand? It seems like DRAM WFE is certainly coming off of a much lower base this year. And on the supply side, we're in a far better point right now than we are in NAND. So can you sort of back those numbers into what that means for the supply-demand balance next year?

是的。是的。明白了，丹。那麼，我的第二個問題是關於DRAM的。我知道，Gary，你之前強調過，DRAM 明年的市佔率將會超過 NAND，這聽起來對 DRAM 來說有點不祥之兆。但你能把它放在需求的脈絡下看待嗎？今年DRAM WFE的基數似乎確實低了許多。而就供應方面而言，我們目前的處境比 NAND 快閃記憶體的情況要好得多。那麼，你能根據這些數字推斷出這對明年的供需平衡意味著什麼嗎？

Yes, sure, Tim. I'll jump in on that one again. And I think the best way to get at this and unpack it for the investment community is talk about what we see in 2020 and then use that as a jumping-off point to describe the contours around 2021. So starting with 2020, we continue to see the overall market up 10% to 15%. We're probably at the high end of that range. We talked about Applied Systems business against a market that's up 15%. Our systems business is going to be up 25% for the calendar year.

當然可以，提姆。我再補充一句。我認為，要讓投資界了解並理解這個問題，最好的方法是先談談我們在 2020 年看到的情況，然後以此為起點來描述 2021 年的大致輪廓。因此，從 2020 年開始，我們繼續看到整體市場上漲 10% 至 15%。我們可能處於這個範圍的高端。我們討論了應用系統業務在市場整體上漲 15% 的情況下所面臨的挑戰。我們的系統業務預計本年度將成長 25%。

By device type, we see foundry/logic greater than 55% in 2020, but it's growing below the market average. DRAM on the memory side of the house, DRAM, it's growing a little faster than the overall market. I think the real story in 2020 is NAND. NAND is growing 2x the overall market in 2020. And so I think that's maybe a little contrary to what the conventional thinking is around 2020. 2020 is a memory growth year, especially for NAND and against that backdrop of the memory growth year, Applied is outperforming very nicely. So we feel good about 2020.

以裝置類型劃分，2020 年代工/邏輯元件的佔比超過 55%，但其成長速度低於市場平均。記憶體方面的DRAM，也就是DRAM，其成長速度略高於整體市場。我認為2020年的真正焦點是NAND快閃記憶體。2020年，NAND快閃記憶體市場的成長速度是整體市場的兩倍。所以我覺得這可能與人們對 2020 年的傳統看法有點相反。2020 年是記憶體成長之年，尤其是 NAND 記憶體，在記憶體成長的大背景下，Applied 的表現非常出色。所以我們對2020年充滿信心。

As we look into 2021, we expect another strong year for the industry and for Applied. And while we're not sharing a specific forecast around WFE, I think it's premature to be point specific at this time, we see foundry/logic is going to continue to be strong, and we see it as over 55% of total WFE again next year. But what you'll see in the memory side of the house is going to be a reversal from a growth standpoint. NAND, we expect to be flattish year-over-year, and DRAM set up to significantly outgrow the market.

展望 2021 年，我們預計該行業和 Applied 公司都將迎來另一個強勁的年份。雖然我們目前沒有對 WFE 做出具體預測，但我認為現在做出具體預測還為時過早。我們認為晶圓代工/邏輯電路將繼續保持強勁勢頭，明年將再次佔 WFE 總量的 55% 以上。但從成長的角度來看，你在房屋記憶部分將會看到相反的變化。我們預計 NAND 快閃記憶體的年增長率將基本持平，而 DRAM 快閃記憶體的年增長率將顯著超過市場平均值。

So this is a great setup for Applied, given the strong share gains we've been talking about now throughout 2020 in DRAM. It gives us confidence as we look into 2021 that the setup from an overall end market standpoint, strong foundry/logic, flattish NAND, strong DRAM, it's a good setup for Applied as we look into next year.

鑑於我們在 2020 年一直在討論的 Applied 在 DRAM 領域強勁的市佔率成長，這對 Applied 來說是一個很好的局面。展望 2021 年，從整體終端市場角度來看，強大的代工/邏輯、相對平坦的 NAND 快閃記憶體、強大的 DRAM，這樣的格局讓我們充滿信心，這對應用材料公司來說是一個良好的開端，讓我們對明年充滿信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Great job on the quarterly execution. On your commentary on leading-edge systems driving much of the incremental revenue growth this year with lagging edge system shipments muted just given the weakness in auto, industrial and analog segments of the market. The recovery in these markets we're seeing now and into next year should be a tailwind for the business. And so what's your expectation on the mix of leading edge versus lagging edge over the next few years, just given the number of new 12-inch analog fabs and microcontroller content and analog content growth in all electronic applications? And what's your positioning in these segments of the market?

季度執行工作做得很好。您評論說，今年大部分增量收入成長是由前沿系統推動的，而落後邊緣系統的出貨量則較為平淡，這主要是由於汽車、工業和模擬市場領域的疲軟所致。目前以及明年這些市場的復甦應該會為公司帶來利好。那麼，考慮到未來幾年新增的 12 吋類比晶片製造廠數量、微控制器含量以及所有電子應用中模擬含量的增長，您對未來幾年前沿技術與落後技術的組合有何預期？那麼，您在這些細分市場中的定位是什麼？

Harlan, I'll jump in on that one. I think you pointed out rightfully, this is a little bit of a weaker market for the trailing-node geometries. A couple of quarters ago or even last quarter, we talked about auto and industrial markets showing some signs of weakness as a result of the pandemic. Since then, we've seen those end markets continuing to perform stronger. But I think it's going to follow the natural progression we would see in any one of our end markets off of low utilization levels. We see utilization rise once utilization gets to a certain level, then you'll see customers begin to layer in capacity.

哈蘭，我也要參與討論。我認為你指出的沒錯，對於拖尾節點幾何體來說，這是一個略顯疲軟的市場。幾個季度前，甚至上個季度，我們討論過受疫情影響，汽車和工業市場出現了一些疲軟跡象。自那以後，我們看到這些終端市場持續表現強勁。但我認為，這將遵循我們在任何一個終端市場中都會看到的，在低利用率水準下出現的自然發展趨勢。當利用率達到一定水準後，我們會看到利用率上升，然後你會看到客戶開始增加產能。

And so I would expect to see legs up in those markets, trailing-node geometries as we look into next year. Longer term, we think the trailing-node geometries as a result of communications infrastructure, industrial, auto, Internet of Things, there's a whole host of drivers that are taking that industry structurally larger over time and we would expect that trailing-node geometries segment to outgrow the overall market over a multiyear window. So we feel good about it.

因此，我預計明年這些市場將會出現上漲行情，以及尾節點幾何形狀的出現。從長遠來看，我們認為，由於通訊基礎設施、工業、汽車、物聯網等諸多因素的影響，拖尾節點幾何結構正在推動該行業隨著時間的推移在結構上不斷擴大，我們預計在未來幾年內，拖尾節點幾何結構細分市場的成長速度將超過整體市場。所以我們對此感到很滿意。

In the near term, while customers are pulling really hard multiple customers, multiple nodes on the leading edge, you've seen a rotation from a very balanced foundry/logic market between leading edge and trailing-node to probably more weighted to leading-edge technologies in the current environment. Over time, we would expect that to moderate a bit and get back to a more balanced profile than what we've seen maybe in 2020 or 2021. But we do think that those markets are set up to do well. And we're encouraged by that because any time you broaden the growth drivers of an industry, it just makes it structurally stronger, less cyclical, less volatile, and we think that, that's going to benefit this industry significantly.

短期來看，雖然客戶確實在努力爭取多個客戶、多個前沿節點，但你會看到，在當前環境下，代工/邏輯市場已經從前沿節點和後沿節點之間非常平衡的狀態，轉變為可能更側重於前沿技術的狀態。隨著時間的推移，我們預計這種情況會有所緩和，並恢復到比 2020 年或 2021 年可能出現的更平衡的狀態。但我們認為這些市場具備良好的發展前景。我們對此感到鼓舞，因為任何時候，當你拓寬一個行業的成長動力時，它都會在結構上變得更強大，週期性更小，波動性更低，我們認為，這將極大地有利於這個行業。

From a positioning standpoint, we're well positioned competitively across that entire node profile. And so we're going to continue to deliver enabling technology to the market, and we'll continue to see strong pull from customers top to bottom across the node profiles.

從定位角度來看，我們在整個節點領域都有很強的競爭力。因此，我們將繼續向市場提供賦能技術，並且我們將繼續看到來自各個節點層級的客戶的強勁需求。

And then as the industry moves towards more innovative and complex packaging technologies, multichip modules, chiplet strategy, actually, in some cases, even seen the return of [litho] scale integration. I'm pleasantly surprised by the size of Applied's Advanced Packaging business, $500 million in revenues this year. How big is this market do you estimate? And what type of growth outlook do you guys see for this emerging segment of the business?

隨著產業朝向更具創新性和複雜性的封裝技術、多晶片模組、晶片組策略發展，實際上，在某些情況下，甚至出現了[光刻]規模整合的回歸。Applied公司的先進包裝業務規模之大令我驚喜，今年的收入達到了5億美元。您估計這個市場有多大？你們認為這個新興業務領域的成長前景如何？

Yes. So as I mentioned before, the packaging part of the ecosystem is one of the key drivers. There's the 5 drivers that I talked about before. And then you see this being also discussed by many leading companies, our customers, other companies in the ecosystem, fabless companies relative to the importance of packaging. I definitely think if you look at the power performance and costs going forward, packaging is really, really, really important. And we have a very strong position. We're #1 in advanced wafer-level packaging.

是的。正如我之前提到的，包裝是生態系中的關鍵驅動因素之一。這是我之前提到的5位司機。然後，你會看到許多領先公司、我們的客戶、生態系統中的其他公司、無晶圓廠公司也在討論封裝的重要性。我絕對認為，從未來的功率性能和成本來看，封裝設計真的、真的、真的非常重要。我們擁有非常強大的地位。我們在先進晶圓級封裝領域排名第一。

And we're working with a number of different ecosystem partners. We talked about a partner with another company to deliver the first -- industry's first fully integrated solution for hybrid bonding, where you can connect 2 chips together in die form, and that enables shorter interconnect distance, 4x increase in I/O density. So there's a lot of innovation that's going to happen in that market. And we have very, very strong positions. If you look at just that 1 particular innovation, you need to optimize etch CMP deposition, wafer surface cleaning. We have metrology inspection, defect particle control that we can add to enable that inflection.

我們正在與許多不同的生態系統合作夥伴合作。我們討論了與另一家公司合作，提供業界首個完全整合的混合鍵合解決方案，可以將兩個晶片以晶片形式連接在一起，從而縮短互連距離，使 I/O 密度提高 4 倍。因此，這個市場將會出現許多創新。我們擁有非常非常強大的地位。如果只看這項創新，你需要優化蝕刻 CMP 沉積、晶圓表面清洗。我們可以透過添加計量檢測和缺陷顆粒控制來實現這一轉變。

And then we also have the center of excellence at Applied's advanced packaging technology center in Singapore. And we have some very large leading customers working with us on some of these new innovative architectures. So I'm really excited. Certainly, it's a meaningful part of our business today. But I think we're really at the early phase of the adoption of many of these new technologies, and we are #1 in advanced packaging, expanding with partnerships through the ecosystem. So I'm excited about it. I don't want to give a specific number right now. But I think it's going to become much more important than most people realize in the ecosystem.

此外，我們在新加坡應用材料公司的先進包裝技術中心也設有卓越中心。我們有一些規模非常大的領先客戶正在與我們合作開發這些新的創新架構。所以我真的很興奮。當然，這已成為我們當今業務的重要組成部分。但我認為我們目前還處於許多新技術應用的早期階段，而我們在先進封裝領域排名第一，並透過與生態系統中的合作夥伴不斷擴大規模。所以我對此感到很興奮。我現在不想給出具體數字。但我認為它在生態系統中的重要性將遠遠超出大多數人的想像。

Our next question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton from Needham.

我們的下一個問題來自尼德姆的奎因·博爾頓。

Congratulations on the nice results and outlook. Just not to take anything away from what you've achieved this year in the foundry/logic and DRAM segments but if I look at your NAND revenue, at least in fiscal '20, revenue was roughly flat year-on-year, where it sounds like the overall NAND WFE may be up close to 30%. So it looks like you've lost share this year. Wondering as you look forward, are there opportunities to stem that share loss in fiscal '21? Or does your outperformance really depend on continued strength in DRAM and foundry/logic?

恭喜你們取得如此佳績，前景光明。並非要貶低您今年在晶圓代工/邏輯和DRAM領域取得的成就，但如果我看一下您的NAND收入，至少在2020財年，收入與上年同期基本持平，而NAND WFE整體收入似乎可能增長了近30%。看來你今年的市佔率有所下降。展望未來，您是否想知道在 2021 財年是否有機會阻止股價下跌？或者說，你們的優異表現真的取決於DRAM和代工/邏輯領域的持續優勢嗎？

Yes. Quinn, I think you may be drawing the wrong conclusion. When we talked about the WFE end market and we talked about NAND, that's a calendar year comment. And so if you look at the first 3 quarters of calendar year '20, you see our NAND business up significantly more than the flat you referenced. And at the midpoint of our guide, we won't talk about by device type, but I think you'll see the performance of that business roughly in line with the overall market.

是的。奎因，我覺得你可能得出錯誤的結論了。當我們談到 WFE 終端市場和 NAND 時，那指的是一年的周期。因此，如果您看一下 2020 年的前三個季度，您會發現我們的 NAND 業務成長遠超過您提到的持平情況。在本指南的中段，我們不會按設備類型進行討論，但我認為你會發現該業務的表現與整體市場大致一致。

It's just the peculiarities of quarters when they happen to hit and the revenue expectations within those quarters. And so if you look at the quarterly profile for the trailing 12 months, you'll see that the 1 quarter out there from a historical standpoint was quite large showing performance this year. On a fiscal year basis, flattish. The first 3 quarters of 2020, you see a very different number. And when we're talking 3 months from now at next quarter's results, I think you'll see a business that's more roughly in line with the overall market. So we're very comfortable, confident with how we're positioned within that end market. And we're going to continue to drive our business and technology and look to do better over time.

這只是每季出現的時間點以及這些季度內的收入預期等方面的特殊情況。因此，如果您查看過去 12 個月的季度概況，您會發現從歷史角度來看，第一季業績相當出色，展現了今年的良好表現。從財政年度來看，基本持平。2020 年前三個季度，你會看到一個截然不同的數字。而當我們談到三個月後，也就是下一季的業績時，我認為你會看到一家與整體市場更協調的公司。因此，我們對自身在終端市場中的定位感到非常滿意和自信。我們將繼續推動業務和技術發展，並力求隨著時間的推移做得更好。

Our final question then comes from Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo.

最後一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇。

I was curious on your prepared remarks, you talked about a long-term service agreements now, 1/3 of those being over 3 years. When you look at your current kind of book of contracts for your installed base, how do you think about that trending over the next few quarters?

我對您事先準備好的演講稿很感興趣，您談到了現在的長期服務協議，其中三分之一的協議期限超過 3 年。當你審視你目前已安裝客戶的合約狀況時，你認為未來幾季的發展趨勢如何？

So, Joe, this has been playing out over a multiyear period. If we go back in time, at one point, 30% of our revenue was generated from long-term service agreements, then we grew at the 40%, then 50%, now you see it at 60%. I think we've got the right strategy around this business. You see those long-term service agreements extending out in tenure, which provides even more stability. And we're going to look to drive that number north off of the 60% of revenues over time. We're going to look to continue to drive that number north.

喬，這件事已經持續好幾年了。回顧過去，我們曾經有 30% 的收入來自長期服務協議，後來成長到 40%，再到 50%，現在達到了 60%。我認為我們在這個業務方面製定了正確的策略。你會看到這些長期服務協議的期限不斷延長，從而提供了更大的穩定性。我們將努力使這一數字隨著時間的推移，從收入的 60% 提高到更高的水平。我們將繼續努力，爭取讓這個數字繼續上升。

So we'll take it 1 quarter at a time, 1 year at a time and continue to execute against our strategy but we see more headroom against that number and look to push this business forward in a much more stable, growth-oriented way.

因此，我們將按季度、按年推進，繼續執行我們的策略，但我們認為這個數字還有更大的成長空間，並希望以更穩定、以成長為導向的方式推動這項業務向前發展。

And Dan, would you like to help us close out the call today.

丹，你願意幫我們結束今天的電話會議嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I'm really pleased that in a year, we're all going to remember for its extraordinary challenges. Applied delivered record revenue, earnings, operating cash flow, year-end backlog. And I'd like to sincerely thank our employees and partners for everything they did to support our customers in that difficult environment.

是的。謝謝你，麥克。我很高興，一年後，我們都會記住這一年所面臨的非凡挑戰。應用科技實現了創紀錄的收入、利潤、經營現金流和年末積壓訂單。我衷心感謝我們的員工和合作夥伴，感謝他們在如此艱難的環境下為支持我們的客戶所做的一切。

Looking into next year, just a few quick thoughts to leave you with. I think the growth opportunities for the semiconductor industry are bigger than ever. The industry road map is clearly moving towards our new playbook. And our balanced market exposure lets us perform well regardless of the spending mix. Our installed base business is growing and making us more resilient across the cycles. And I'm encouraged by the early green shoots we're seeing in display.

展望明年，最後想跟大家分享幾點點子。我認為半導體產業的發展機會比以往任何時候都更大。產業發展路線圖顯然正在朝著我們的新策略方向發展。我們均衡的市場配置使我們能夠無論支出結構如何變化都能取得良好的績效。我們的用戶基礎業務不斷成長，使我們在經濟週期中更具韌性。看到目前展現出的早期良好勢頭，我感到很受鼓舞。

Gary and I look forward to seeing many of you at the Credit Suisse conference next month. And until then, I hope you all enjoy a happy and safe Thanksgiving. Take care.

我和 Gary 期待下個月在瑞士信貸會議上見到你們中的許多人。在此之前，祝大家感恩節快樂平安。小心。

All right. Thank you very much. That concludes our conference call, and thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。非常感謝。本次電話會議到此結束，感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

感謝各位女士、先生參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。再會。