應用材料 (AMAT) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加應用材料公司收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President.

我現在想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings Call.

大家下午好，感謝您參加應用材料公司 2020 財年第四季度財報電話會議。

Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

加入我的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Dickerson；和我們的首席財務官 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到可能導致我們實際結果不同的風險和不確定性的影響。

Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

有關風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 最近提交給 SEC 的 10-Q 和 8-K 表格中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益材料中可以找到與 GAAP 措施的對賬，這些材料可在我們網站的 IR 頁面上找到，網址為 Appliedmaterials.com。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話轉給 Gary Dickerson。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，邁克。

I'm very pleased to report that Applied Materials delivered record revenue in our fourth fiscal quarter, and earnings hit an annualized run rate of $5 per share for the first time.

我很高興地報告，應用材料公司在我們的第四財季實現了創紀錄的收入，收益首次達到每股 5 美元的年化運行率。

For the fiscal year, we grew revenues 18%, and earnings 37% while making significant strategic investments in new technologies and products to address the industry's highest value problems and position the company for sustained long-term success.

在本財年，我們的收入增長了 18%，收益增長了 37%，同時對新技術和產品進行了重大戰略投資，以解決行業最高價值的問題，並使公司獲得持續的長期成功。

These results are all the more impressive considering the unprecedented disruptions we've navigated this year.

考慮到我們今年經歷的前所未有的顛覆，這些結果更加令人印象深刻。

I really want to thank all our employees, suppliers and partners for their resilience and adaptability.

我真的要感謝我們所有的員工、供應商和合作夥伴，感謝他們的韌性和適應能力。

Our teams have switched to new ways of working, delivered on our commitments to customers and investors and kept our technology and product development on track.

我們的團隊已經轉向新的工作方式，兌現了我們對客戶和投資者的承諾，並使我們的技術和產品開發保持在正軌上。

While our actions to date are driven by a need to protect the health and safety of our employees while keeping our company strong, I'm very excited about the long-term benefits of working in new ways, especially remote support in R&D.

雖然我們迄今為止的行動是為了保護員工的健康和安全，同時保持公司的強大，但我對以新方式工作的長期利益感到非常興奮，尤其是在研發方面的遠程支持。

In today's call, I'll begin by sharing our current view of the market environment.

在今天的電話會議中，我將首先分享我們對市場環境的當前看法。

Then as this is the end of our fiscal year, I'll highlight some of our major accomplishments in 2020 before describing the growth drivers and inflections that will shape our markets over the next several years.

然後，由於這是我們財政年度的結束，我將重點介紹我們在 2020 年取得的一些主要成就，然後再描述將在未來幾年塑造我們市場的增長動力和拐點。

I'll conclude by outlining our strategy and investments that will drive Applied's long-term profitable growth.

最後，我將概述我們將推動應用材料公司長期盈利增長的戰略和投資。

As we adapt to the challenges created by COVID-19 and prepare for the post-pandemic era, we are seeing fundamental changes in many areas of our lives, and the world is depending on semiconductors more than ever.

隨著我們適應 COVID-19 帶來的挑戰並為大流行後時代做準備，我們看到生活的許多領域發生了根本性變化，世界比以往任何時候都更加依賴半導體。

Investments in IT and communications infrastructure, combined with the accelerated digital transformation of companies and the economy as a whole are driving very robust semiconductor and wafer fab equipment demand.

對 IT 和通信基礎設施的投資，加上企業和整個經濟的數字化轉型加速，正在推動非常強勁的半導體和晶圓廠設備需求。

In foundry/logic, we see leading-edge customers building out their fabs and aggressively driving advanced R&D.

在代工/邏輯領域，我們看到領先的客戶正在建設他們的晶圓廠並積極推動先進的研發。

This gives us confidence that current investment levels are sustainable into 2021 and beyond.

這讓我們相信，目前的投資水平在 2021 年及以後是可持續的。

In addition, specialty markets underperformed in 2020 due to headwinds in industrial and automotive and therefore, represent an upside for 2021 as these sectors rebound.

此外，由於工業和汽車行業的逆風，專業市場在 2020 年表現不佳，因此隨著這些行業的反彈，這些市場在 2021 年呈現上漲趨勢。

In memory, spending is growing faster than foundry/logic this year as customers push forward with their technology road maps.

在內存方面，隨著客戶推進他們的技術路線圖，今年的支出增長速度超過了代工/邏輯。

We see NAND outgrowing DRAM in 2020 and then DRAM growing significantly faster than NAND in 2021.

我們看到 2020 年 NAND 的增長速度超過了 DRAM，然後 DRAM 在 2021 年的增長速度明顯快於 NAND。

Consistent with the perspective we shared on the August call, our outlook remains very positive.

與我們在 8 月電話會議上分享的觀點一致，我們的前景仍然非常樂觀。

We are outperforming the market and we are demonstrating we can grow independent of the spending mix.

我們的表現優於市場，我們正在證明我們可以獨立於支出組合而增長。

This quarter, semiconductor systems revenues were an all-time (inaudible) the midpoint of our guidance will be up another 12% next quarter.

本季度，半導體系統收入創歷史新高（聽不清），我們指導的中點將在下個季度再增長 12%。

For the fiscal year, semi systems revenue grew 26% with broad-based strength across products and device types.

在本財年，半導體系統收入增長了 26%，產品和設備類型的基礎廣泛。

Our traditional leadership businesses that provide solutions for creating and modifying materials and structures are benefiting from innovations that enable leading-edge transistors and interconnects.

我們為創建和修改材料和結構提供解決方案的傳統領先企業正受益於支持前沿晶體管和互連的創新。

For example, our metals deposition business, technology that is critical to interconnect performance grew revenues 42% in fiscal 2020 to nearly $2.2 billion.

例如，我們的金屬沉積業務這一對互連性能至關重要的技術在 2020 財年的收入增長了 42%，達到近 22 億美元。

In our businesses that focus on shaping and analyzing materials and structures, we have significant opportunities to grow our share, and we're demonstrating our strong momentum.

在我們專注於塑造和分析材料和結構的業務中，我們有很大的機會來增加我們的份額，我們正在展示我們的強勁勢頭。

In fiscal 2020, our etch business generated record revenues, growing nearly 30% year-on-year.

在 2020 財年，我們的蝕刻業務創造了創紀錄的收入，同比增長近 30%。

We're gaining share in conductor etch as we win new applications in DRAM and foundry/logic.

隨著我們在 DRAM 和代工廠/邏輯領域贏得新應用，我們在導體蝕刻領域獲得了份額。

Our inspection business also delivered record performance as systems revenues increased 46% for the year.

我們的檢測業務也取得了創紀錄的業績，系統收入在這一年增長了 46%。

We have significant traction with leading-edge customers and are winning share in optical wafer inspection and e-beam with new products that are still in early stages of adoption.

我們在領先的客戶中有著顯著的吸引力，並且正在通過仍處於早期採用階段的新產品贏得光學晶圓檢測和電子束的份額。

As the benefits of traditional 2D Moore's Law scaling slowdown, leading companies are describing how the industry is transitioning to a new playbook to drive performance, power, area cost and time to market of new devices.

由於傳統 2D 摩爾定律規模放緩的好處，領先的公司正在描述該行業如何過渡到新的劇本，以推動新設備的性能、功耗、面積成本和上市時間。

This PPACt playbook includes new architectures, new structures, new materials, new ways to shrink geometries and new packaging technology.

這本 PPACt 手冊包括新架構、新結構、新材料、縮小幾何形狀的新方法和新封裝技術。

Applied is uniquely positioned to accelerate this playbook.

Applied 具有獨特的優勢來加速這個劇本。

The breadth of our product portfolio is a key advantage because it allows us to combine technologies in innovative new ways.

我們產品組合的廣度是一個關鍵優勢，因為它使我們能夠以創新的方式結合技術。

For example, in patterning, where we generated nearly $1.1 billion of revenue in fiscal 2020, we have been winning new applications across multiple customers with a new product that delivers a novel hard mask material combined with a co-optimized etch solution to open the hard mask.

例如，在圖案化方面，我們在 2020 財年創造了近 11 億美元的收入，我們通過一種新產品贏得了多個客戶的新應用，該產品提供了一種新型硬掩模材料，並結合了共同優化的蝕刻解決方案來打開硬掩模。面具。

This is a great example of a new class of highly differentiated products we call Integrated Materials Solutions or IMS.

這是我們稱為集成材料解決方案或 IMS 的新型高度差異化產品的一個很好的例子。

We have numerous IMS engagements with our leading customers, and I'm very excited about the IMS products we'll be bringing to market in the next several years.

我們與主要客戶進行了多次 IMS 合作，我對我們將在未來幾年內推向市場的 IMS 產品感到非常興奮。

Another area where we are creating value using our broad capabilities is advanced packaging that enables chips to be connected in new ways.

我們利用我們廣泛的能力創造價值的另一個領域是先進的封裝，它使芯片能夠以新的方式連接。

Our packaging business is scaling, generating record revenues of $0.5 billion for the year, up over 20% from fiscal 2019.

我們的包裝業務正在擴大，今年創造了 5 億美元的創紀錄收入，比 2019 財年增長 20% 以上。

We're also expanding our ecosystem footprint through a combination of organic investments and partnerships.

我們還通過有機投資和合作夥伴關係來擴大我們的生態系統足跡。

Moving to service.

移動到服務。

AGS also delivered record revenues for the quarter and the year.

AGS 還創造了創紀錄的季度和年度收入。

The portion of AGS revenue generated from subscription-style business also grew to record levels.

訂閱式業務產生的 AGS 收入部分也增長至創紀錄水平。

In fiscal 2020, we increased the number of tools covered by long-term service agreements by 13%.

在 2020 財年，我們將長期服務協議涵蓋的工具數量增加了 13%。

As a result, 60% of our service and spare parts business now comes from the stickier and more predictable recurring revenue streams.

因此，我們 60% 的服務和備件業務現在來自更具粘性和更可預測的經常性收入流。

Our renewal rates for long-term agreements are also very high at more than 90%.

我們的長期協議續簽率也非常高，超過 90%。

This illustrates the value customers see in our advanced service products.

這說明了客戶在我們先進的服務產品中看到的價值。

Rounding out our portfolio with display, we hit our 2020 revenue target in a challenging market.

通過顯示器完善我們的產品組合，我們在充滿挑戰的市場中實現了 2020 年的收入目標。

Our outlook for 2021 is similar to this year with no significant changes to the view we shared in our last call.

我們對 2021 年的展望與今年相似，我們在上次電話會議中分享的觀點沒有重大變化。

However, we're starting to see some encouraging leading indicators of future growth that we'll be watching closely in 2021.

然而，我們開始看到一些令人鼓舞的未來增長領先指標，我們將在 2021 年密切關注這些指標。

These include increasing adoption of organic LED displays, OLED, for IT applications.

其中包括在 IT 應用中越來越多地採用有機 LED 顯示器（OLED）。

Higher OLED adoption in the smartphone market with more than 70% of the 5G handsets launched to date equipped with OLED screens, and foldable OLED handsets approaching a price point that could spur volume adoption.

智能手機市場的 OLED 採用率更高，迄今為止推出的 5G 手機中有 70% 以上配備了 OLED 屏幕，而可折疊 OLED 手機的價格接近可能刺激批量採用的價格點。

As I've said before, we're optimistic about the long-term opportunities for Applied in the display market as we focus on addressing the OLED inflection and expanding our available market.

正如我之前所說，我們對應用在顯示市場的長期機會持樂觀態度，因為我們專注於解決 OLED 的變化並擴大我們的可用市場。

Finally, as I look back on our accomplishments this year, I'm also very proud of our new 10-year road map for environmental and social responsibility that we announced over the summer.

最後，當我回顧我們今年的成就時，我也為我們在夏天宣布的新的環境和社會責任 10 年路線圖感到非常自豪。

This road map lays out the detailed actions behind our vision to make possible a better future for everyone.

該路線圖列出了我們願景背後的詳細行動，旨在為每個人創造更美好的未來。

We've taken a holistic approach to these plans that considers our operations, how we work with customers and suppliers and how our technology can be used to advance sustainability on a global scale.

我們對這些計劃採取了全面的方法，考慮了我們的運營、我們如何與客戶和供應商合作以及我們的技術如何用於在全球範圍內推進可持續發展。

We call our framework 1x, 100x, 10,000x, and we've used it to rally the company around challenging new goals and commitments.

我們稱我們的框架為 1x、100x、10,000x，我們用它來團結公司圍繞挑戰新的目標和承諾。

Before I conclude, I'll take a few minutes to describe the longer-term growth drivers we see for Applied.

在結束之前，我將花幾分鐘時間來描述我們看到的 Applied 的長期增長動力。

As I look ahead to the next decade, our opportunities have never been better.

當我展望下一個十年時，我們的機會從未像現在這樣好。

There are numerous trillion-dollar inflections that can be enabled by advances in materials engineering, from next-generation displays and AR/VR to electrification of transport and personalized health care.

從下一代顯示器和 AR/VR 到交通電氣化和個性化醫療保健，材料工程的進步可以實現數万億美元的轉變。

However, the 1 inflection that really stands out is AI.

然而，真正突出的第一個轉折點是人工智能。

AI has the potential to change everything, and it will touch every major industry and area of the economy.

人工智能有可能改變一切，它將觸及每個主要行業和經濟領域。

AI also has major implications for the electronics and semiconductor ecosystem.

人工智能還對電子和半導體生態系統產生重大影響。

First, we're moving from an application-centric to a data-first world where almost all data will be generated and consumed by machines.

首先，我們正在從以應用程序為中心轉向以數據為先的世界，幾乎所有數據都將由機器生成和使用。

This means that the industry's growth will no longer be limited by humans ability to create or consume data.

這意味著該行業的增長將不再受限於人類創建或使用數據的能力。

Second, the new computing approach is needed to make sense of the massive volumes of data available.

其次，需要新的計算方法來理解大量可用數據。

We'll work best with workload-specific hardware built from customized and entirely new types of silicon.

我們將最好地使用由定制和全新類型的矽構建的特定於工作負載的硬件。

This diversification of designs and devices is great for the industry.

這種設計和設備的多樣化對行業來說非常有用。

And third, training neural networks for AI computing is incredibly power intensive.

第三，為 AI 計算訓練神經網絡非常耗電。

So there's a huge imperative for the industry to drive improvements in the performance per watt of computing solutions.

因此，業界迫切需要提高計算解決方案的每瓦性能。

The advances in technology needed to unlock the potential of AI create tremendous opportunities for Applied Materials.

釋放人工智能潛力所需的技術進步為應用材料公司創造了巨大的機會。

We have aligned our strategy and investments around this vision for the future, and we're uniquely positioned to accelerate the industry's new PPACt playbook, to advance power, performance, area cost and time to market of next-generation semi devices.

我們圍繞這一未來願景調整了我們的戰略和投資，並且我們具有獨特的優勢，可以加速行業新的 PPACt 劇本，以提高下一代半導體器件的功率、性能、面積成本和上市時間。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, let me quickly summarize.

在我把電話交給丹之前，讓我快速總結一下。

Despite the unprecedented challenges of 2020, Applied is delivering record performance.

儘管 2020 年面臨前所未有的挑戰，但應用材料公司的業績仍創歷史新高。

We're outperforming the market overall and have strong momentum in key growth areas like etch and inspection.

我們的整體表現優於市場，並且在蝕刻和檢測等關鍵增長領域擁有強勁勢頭。

The demand for semiconductors remains very strong, driven by IT infrastructure, digital transformation of businesses and an acceleration of longer-term technology trends, especially AI.

在 IT 基礎設施、企業數字化轉型以及長期技術趨勢（尤其是人工智能）加速的推動下，對半導體的需求仍然非常強勁。

Our future opportunities have never been better.

我們未來的機會從未如此美好。

We've been investing in next-generation technologies that are critical for the AI ecosystem and laying the groundwork for Applied's future growth.

我們一直在投資對 AI 生態系統至關重要的下一代技術，並為 Applied 的未來增長奠定基礎。

Our strategy to accelerate the PPACt playbook is already yielding results for our customers and Applied.

我們加速 PPACt 劇本的戰略已經為我們的客戶和 Applied 帶來了成果。

And as I look ahead, I'm very excited about the innovative new products and integrated solutions we will bring to market in 2021 and beyond.

展望未來，我對我們將在 2021 年及以後推向市場的創新新產品和集成解決方案感到非常興奮。

Now I will turn the call over to Dan.

現在我將把電話轉給丹。

Thanks, Gary.

謝謝，加里。

Today, I'll add my perspective on our Q4 performance and full year results.

今天，我將就我們的第四季度業績和全年業績發表我的看法。

I'll share some noteworthy developments in our installed base business, and I'll provide you with our backlog entering our next fiscal year, along with our business outlook for Q1.

我將分享我們已安裝的基礎業務的一些值得注意的發展，我將為您提供我們進入下一財年的積壓工作，以及我們對第一季度的業務展望。

Beginning with our Q4 performance.

從我們第四季度的表現開始。

I'm pleased that our company delivered record revenue and earnings per share despite the ongoing challenges related to COVID.

儘管與 COVID 相關的挑戰持續存在，我很高興我們公司實現了創紀錄的收入和每股收益。

Our teams managed to significantly increase our system shipments and customer support.

我們的團隊設法顯著增加了我們的系統出貨量和客戶支持。

And we did it in a very disciplined manner that resulted in higher operating profits and free cash flow.

我們以非常自律的方式做到了這一點，從而帶來了更高的營業利潤和自由現金流。

We've now shipped all of the unmet backlog from earlier in the year, and our Q1 guidance gives you a direct look at the healthy demand trends we continue to see in our business.

我們現在已經發貨了今年早些時候所有未滿足的積壓訂單，我們的第一季度指導讓您直接了解我們在業務中繼續看到的健康需求趨勢。

In Q4, we delivered revenue above the midpoint of our guidance across all of the segments, including record revenue in semi systems and AGS.

在第四季度，我們在所有領域的收入都高於我們指導的中點，包括半導體系統和 AGS 的創紀錄收入。

We grew revenue by 25% versus the same period last year, increased non-GAAP operating profit by 49% year-on-year and delivered record non-GAAP EPS of $1.25, which was up 56% year-over-year.

與去年同期相比，我們的收入增長了 25%，非公認會計準則營業利潤同比增長 49%，非公認會計準則每股收益達到創紀錄的 1.25 美元，同比增長 56%。

We also increased operating cash flow to over $1.3 billion, up 59% year-over-year.

我們還將運營現金流增加到超過 13 億美元，同比增長 59%。

About 2 months into our quarter, the U.S. government imposed a licensing requirement related to one of our foundry customers in China.

在本季度大約 2 個月後，美國政府對我們在中國的一位代工客戶實施了許可要求。

This requirement reduced our revenue in Q4 and our guidance for Q1.

這一要求減少了我們在第四季度的收入和我們對第一季度的指導。

We've already applied for licenses where needed to comply with the new rules.

我們已經在需要遵守新規則的地方申請了許可證。

Turning to our full year results.

談到我們的全年業績。

I'm especially pleased with the growth of our semiconductor-related businesses.

我對我們半導體相關業務的增長感到特別高興。

Semi Systems and AGS combined, grew by over 20% year-over-year.

Semi Systems 和 AGS 相結合，同比增長超過 20%。

Our installed base business, which includes AGS plus 300-millimeter upgrades, grew by over 9% year-on-year and continues to represent close to 1/3 of Applied's revenue.

我們的安裝基礎業務（包括 AGS 和 300 毫米升級）同比增長超過 9%，繼續佔 Applied 收入的近 1/3。

This growing part of our company provides an annuity-like revenue stream that makes us more resilient across market cycles.

我們公司這個不斷增長的部分提供了類似年金的收入流，使我們在整個市場週期中更具彈性。

Within AGS, we've seen positive developments in our long-term service agreements.

在 AGS 內部，我們看到了長期服務協議的積極發展。

Until recently, the vast majority of our agreements had 1-year terms.

直到最近，我們的絕大多數協議都有 1 年的期限。

But in 2020, about 1/3 of the agreements we signed had terms of at least 3 years.

但在 2020 年，我們簽署的協議中約有 1/3 的期限至少為 3 年。

We've increased these extended service agreements by a factor of 10 over the past 3 years.

在過去 3 年中，我們將這些擴展服務協議增加了 10 倍。

This outstanding growth underscores the close working relationships we have with customers, who are using our data-enabled services over the life of a node to generate world-class yields output and costs.

這種出色的增長突顯了我們與客戶的密切合作關係，客戶在節點的生命週期內使用我們的數據支持服務來產生世界級的產量和成本。

In fact, in 2020, we grew the installed base of our data-enabled tools by nearly 40%.

事實上，在 2020 年，我們的數據支持工具的安裝基數增長了近 40%。

For the company as a whole in 2020, we delivered record revenue in both semi systems and AGS.

就 2020 年公司整體而言，我們在半導體系統和 AGS 方面都實現了創紀錄的收入。

We increased non-GAAP gross margin by 110 basis points, invested 69% of non-GAAP OpEx in research and development, grew non-GAAP operating profit by 32% and increased EPS by 37%.

我們將非美國通用會計準則毛利率提高了 110 個基點，將 69% 的非美國通用會計準則運營支出用於研發，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤增長了 32%，每股收益增長了 37%。

We also generated $3.8 billion in operating cash flow, setting a new record and returned $1.44 billion to shareholders.

我們還創造了 38 億美元的經營現金流，創下新紀錄，並向股東返還 14.4 億美元。

We raised the dividend for the third year in a row, paid dividends of $787 million and allocated nearly $650 million to stock buybacks, repurchasing at an average price of $56.32.

我們連續第三年上調股息，派發股息 7.87 億美元，並分配近 6.5 億美元用於股票回購，回購均價為 56.32 美元。

We increased cash on the balance sheet by nearly $2 billion as we prepared for the Kokusai Electric transaction.

在為國際電氣交易做準備時，我們將資產負債表上的現金增加了近 20 億美元。

In Q4, our stock buybacks were limited to $50 million as our legal department imposed a trading blackout out of an abundance of caution, in connection with our discussions with the Chinese regulatory agency that is reviewing the Kokusai Electric transaction.

在第四季度，我們的股票回購限制在 5000 萬美元，因為我們的法律部門出於謹慎考慮而實施了交易停電，這與我們與正在審查國際電氣交易的中國監管機構的討論有關。

We continue to have constructive discussions and we're working to secure clearance for the transaction before the end of the calendar year.

我們將繼續進行建設性的討論，我們正在努力確保在日曆年結束前完成交易。

Next, I'll share some color regarding the demand we see as we enter our new fiscal year.

接下來，我將分享一些關於我們進入新財年時看到的需求的顏色。

Applied's backlog reached nearly $6.7 billion in Q4, setting a new year-end record.

應用材料公司第四季度的積壓訂單達到近 67 億美元，創下新的年終記錄。

The combined backlog of our semi-related businesses also set a year-end record, growing to nearly $5.5 billion.

我們半相關業務的總積壓也創下了年終記錄，增長到近 55 億美元。

Our display backlog declined year-over-year.

我們的顯示積壓量同比下降。

And as Gary discussed, we're tracking the leading indicators of the eventual recovery.

正如加里所討論的，我們正在跟踪最終復甦的領先指標。

Now I'll share our Q1 business outlook.

現在我將分享我們的第一季度業務展望。

We expect company revenue to be approximately $4.95 billion, plus or minus $200 million, with the midpoint up about 19% year-over-year.

我們預計公司收入約為 49.5 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元，中點同比增長約 19%。

We expect non-GAAP EPS to be about $1.26, plus or minus $0.06 or up nearly 30% year-over-year.

我們預計非公認會計原則每股收益約為 1.26 美元，上下浮動 0.06 美元或同比增長近 30%。

Within this outlook, we project semiconductor systems revenue of around $3.45 billion, up nearly 23% year-over-year; AGS revenue of about $1.07 billion, up around 7% year-over-year; and display revenue of around $400 million, up about 20% year-on-year.

在此展望中，我們預計半導體系統收入約為 34.5 億美元，同比增長近 23%； AGS收入約10.7億美元，同比增長約7%；顯示收入約4億美元，同比增長約20%。

We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 45.3% and which is higher year-over-year and lower sequentially due to near-term changes in product and customer mix.

我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 45.3%，由於產品和客戶組合的近期變化，該毛利率同比較高，環比較低。

We expect non-GAAP OpEx to increase to $860 million, reflecting higher expenses from a 14-week quarter plus 1 month of annual merit increases, partially offset by holiday shutdown savings.

我們預計非 GAAP 運營支出將增加到 8.6 億美元，這反映了 14 周季度的更高費用加上 1 個月的年度績效增長，部分被假期停工節省所抵消。

Our Q1 guidance assumes a tax rate of around 12%, and a weighted average share count of around 925 million.

我們的第一季度指引假設稅率約為 12%，加權平均股數約為 9.25 億股。

In summary, I'm pleased that Applied delivered record performance in Q4 and has strong momentum entering our new fiscal year.

總而言之，我很高興應用材料公司在第四季度取得了創紀錄的業績，並且在進入我們新的財政年度時勢頭強勁。

Our backlog is at record levels as our products and technology generate strong customer pull.

由於我們的產品和技術產生了強大的客戶吸引力，我們的積壓達到了創紀錄的水平。

Our installed base business is becoming larger and more resilient with growth in our data-enabled services and multiyear service agreements.

隨著我們的數據支持服務和多年服務協議的增長，我們的已安裝基礎業務正在變得更大、更有彈性。

I'm incredibly proud of our teams for supporting our customers under challenging global circumstances while delivering record earnings and increased cash flow to our shareholders.

我為我們的團隊在充滿挑戰的全球環境下為我們的客戶提供支持，同時為我們的股東帶來創紀錄的收益和增加的現金流感到無比自豪。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

現在邁克，讓我們開始問答吧。

Thanks, Dan (Operator Instructions).

謝謝，丹（操作員說明）。

Operator, let's please begin.

接線員，讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess for my first question, if I look at your DRAM business and make assumptions around your January quarter, it looks like you're going to grow about mid-30% for DRAM.

我想我的第一個問題是，如果我看看你們的 DRAM 業務並在你們 1 月份的季度做出假設，看起來你們的 DRAM 將增長 30% 左右。

And that's far better than what we're seeing industry-wide.

這比我們在全行業看到的要好得多。

So I guess can you discuss what's driving that outperformance, including some discussion on your success with conductor etch?

所以我想你能討論一下是什麼推動了這種出色的表現，包括一些關於你在導體蝕刻方面取得成功的討論嗎？

And how should we think about your share of wallet for DRAM, given that that's probably the fastest-growing subsegment in calendar '21?

鑑於這可能是 21 年日曆中增長最快的子部分，我們應該如何考慮您在 DRAM 錢包中的份額？

Yes.

是的。

C.J., I'll take the question.

C.J.，我會回答這個問題。

As you pointed out, our DRAM business is showing significant signs of strength this year.

正如您所指出的，我們的 DRAM 業務今年顯示出顯著的強勢跡象。

We've built momentum throughout the year.

我們全年都建立了勢頭。

And we expect to close the year very strong.

我們預計今年會非常強勁。

As we think about the overall growth rate of the DRAM market in this year against the backdrop of an industry that's probably growing 10% to 15%, probably at the high end of that range for overall WFE.

當我們考慮今年 DRAM 市場的整體增長率時，這個行業可能會增長 10% 到 15%，可能處於整個 WFE 範圍的高端。

Our overall systems business is going to be up over 25% for the calendar year.

我們的整體系統業務在本日曆年將增長 25% 以上。

Against that DRAM as a market is probably a couple of points higher than the overall industry.

相對於 DRAM 作為一個市場，它可能比整個行業高幾個點。

So based on the math you walked through, you can see that the company is significantly outperforming.

因此，根據您進行的數學計算，您可以看到該公司的表現明顯優於其他公司。

On last quarter's call, Gary talked about the momentum we're seeing from a conductor etch standpoint.

在上個季度的電話會議上，加里談到了我們從導體蝕刻的角度看到的勢頭。

So the team is performing really, really well there.

所以球隊在那裡表現得非常非常好。

And then as you think about things like high-K metal gate to get the I/O speeds on and off the DRAM device, we've been talking for a while about that inflection coming into the market and we're just really well positioned from a technology standpoint to drive our customers' road map and seeing strong adoption.

然後，當您考慮諸如高 K 金屬門以使 I/O 速度打開和關閉 DRAM 設備時，我們已經討論了一段時間關於進入市場的拐點，我們真的處於有利地位從技術的角度來看，推動我們客戶的路線圖並看到強大的採用。

So we feel really good about how we're performing against the backdrop of a good market, but clearly strong performance, and we're really encouraged by what we see going forward.

因此，在良好的市場背景下，我們對自己的表現感到非常滿意，但顯然表現強勁，我們對未來的發展感到非常鼓舞。

And we would expect this strength to continue into next year as we continue to push our customers' road map and drive strong adoption of the technology.

我們預計這種優勢將持續到明年，因為我們將繼續推動客戶的路線圖並推動對該技術的大力採用。

Yes, maybe C.J., just to add a little bit more color.

是的，也許是 C.J.，只是為了增加一點色彩。

This is Gary.

這是加里。

For high speed, the periphery is moving to more like, as Dan said, more logic-like processes where that's in the sweet spot of where we have leadership with a number of different products.

正如丹所說，對於高速，外圍正在轉向更像邏輯的流程，這是我們在許多不同產品方面處於領先地位的最佳位置。

So that's part of a unique inflection that's really fueling our growth in DRAM.

所以這是一個獨特的轉折點的一部分，它真正推動了我們在 DRAM 領域的增長。

And I talked, I think, in the last earnings call about the growth that we've seen in our DRAM conductor etch, gaining about 30 points of share since 2016.

我認為，在上次財報電話會議上，我談到了我們在 DRAM 導體蝕刻中看到的增長，自 2016 年以來獲得了約 30 個百分點的份額。

And so with the key technology inflections for the high-speed memory and also the strength of the Sym3 and etch, really, that's fueling our growth, and we feel really good that we're going to continue to enable the future inflections and continue to grow -- outgrow the market in DRAM.

因此，高速內存的關鍵技術轉折以及 Sym3 和 etch 的實力，真的，這推動了我們的增長，我們感覺非常好，我們將繼續實現未來的轉折並繼續增長——超過 DRAM 市場。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

And as my follow-up, I guess perhaps, if you could focus on domestic China and overall China.

作為我的後續行動，我想如果你能專注於中國國內和整個中國的話。

I think the concern out there is that the types of numbers we're seeing is not sustainable, particularly given what's going on with SMIC.

我認為人們擔心的是我們看到的數字類型是不可持續的，特別是考慮到中芯國際的情況。

But curious if you could offer thoughts on the greater breadth of spending that we'll probably see in calendar '21?

但好奇您是否可以就我們可能會在 21 年日曆中看到的更大範圍的支出提供想法？

And then how we should think about multinationals layering in?

那麼我們應該如何看待跨國公司的分層？

And what impact that will have on overall CapEx coming out of China?

這將對來自中國的整體資本支出產生什麼影響？

Yes.

是的。

Sure, C.J. Let me jump in on that and see if Gary wants to add anything at the end.

當然，C.J. 讓我跳進去看看 Gary 是否想在最後添加任何內容。

From an overall market standpoint in calendar year 2020, we see meaningful spend by both the domestic customers as well as the multinational customers.

從 2020 日曆年的整體市場角度來看，我們看到國內客戶和跨國客戶都進行了有意義的支出。

And if I were to think about weighting of that spend, I would say it favors the domestic market over the multinationals, but both groups of customers are having meaningful spend.

如果我要考慮這筆支出的權重，我會說它有利於國內市場而不是跨國公司，但兩組客戶的支出都有意義。

I think what you see is a broad base of investments.

我認為你看到的是廣泛的投資基礎。

You're seeing investments across 200-millimeter geometries, 300-millimeter geometries.

您會看到對 200 毫米幾何形狀、300 毫米幾何形狀的投資。

And within 300-millimeter geometries, you're seeing investments in NAND, DRAM, foundry/logic, so all device types.

在 300 毫米幾何尺寸內，您會看到對 NAND、DRAM、代工/邏輯以及所有設備類型的投資。

We think that continues into 2021.

我們認為這種情況會持續到 2021 年。

We probably won't see the growth rates that we did in 2020.

我們可能不會看到我們在 2020 年的增長率。

It's going to be a strong year but you certainly won't see those growth rates.

這將是強勁的一年，但你肯定不會看到這些增長率。

From a growth standpoint, I would expect multinationals to show more growth than the domestic customers but still strong spend in both categories.

從增長的角度來看，我預計跨國公司的增長將超過國內客戶，但在這兩個類別中的支出仍然強勁。

So we see it's a good market.

所以我們認為這是一個很好的市場。

We continue to see strength in China and expect to see that for the foreseeable future as they build their ecosystem in a slow, disciplined manner.

我們繼續看到中國的實力，並期望在可預見的未來看到這一點，因為他們以緩慢、有紀律的方式建立自己的生態系統。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Congratulations on the solid results.

祝賀你取得了堅實的成果。

Just a follow-up on C.J.'s question on China, Dan.

只是跟進 C.J. 關於中國的問題，丹。

You talked about in your prepared comments that the ruling against SMIC did impact your fiscal fourth quarter, fiscal first quarter.

您在準備好的評論中談到，針對中芯國際的裁決確實影響了您的第四財季、第一財季。

I wonder if you can just confirm with us how much of an impact was it.

我想知道您是否可以與我們確認它的影響有多大。

And does SMIC now represent 0 within the forward-looking numbers?

中芯國際現在在前瞻性數字中是否代表0？

Or how are we thinking about kind of the impact there?

或者我們如何考慮那裡的影響？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Here's what I can share with you.

這是我可以與您分享的內容。

As you can imagine, we probably don't want to be too detailed on what any 1 customer is doing.

正如您可以想像的那樣，我們可能不想過於詳細地了解任何一位客戶在做什麼。

But the licensing requirement that we talked about, it was put in place about 2/3 of the way through our fiscal fourth quarter.

但是我們談到的許可要求，在我們第四財季的 2/3 左右就已經到位。

So we saw about 4 or 5 weeks exposure to that new requirement.

所以我們看到大約有 4 到 5 週的時間來接受這個新要求。

As we said in the prepared comments, Q4 revenue and Q1 guidance would have been higher if those restrictions had not been in place.

正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，如果沒有這些限制，第四季度的收入和第一季度的指引會更高。

So we're complying with the new rules.

因此，我們正在遵守新規則。

We've already applied for licenses where we need them.

我們已經在需要的地方申請了許可證。

Trade situation remains fluid.

貿易形勢依然不穩定。

So we don't want to speculate about the future.

所以我們不想推測未來。

But certainly, the revenue in Q4 and guide for Q1 would have been higher absent that requirement.

但可以肯定的是，如果沒有這一要求，第四季度的收入和第一季度的指引會更高。

As you know, we've been in China for a very long time.

如你所知，我們在中國已經很長時間了。

We've got a broad base of relationships, and it's across all device types and we would expect the China market to continue to be strong for us going forward.

我們擁有廣泛的關係基礎，涵蓋所有設備類型，我們預計中國市場將繼續對我們的發展保持強勁。

And again, we're working with the governments to get the licensing requirement satisfied.

同樣，我們正在與政府合作，以滿足許可要求。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then maybe for my follow-up for Gary.

然後也許是我對加里的後續行動。

Gary, a lot of the conversation around U.S.-China trade tensions that there had been concerns around restriction of shipping equipment into China.

加里，很多圍繞美中貿易緊張局勢的談話，人們擔心限制運輸設備進入中國。

But there's clearly a second side of the story where a lot of countries now are looking at the strategic necessity for semiconductor capacity.

但顯然還有另一面，許多國家現在都在關注半導體產能的戰略必要性。

You have things like the CHIPS Act in the U.S., you have TSMC announcing a foundry in Arizona earlier this year.

美國有 CHIPS 法案，今年早些時候台積電宣佈在亞利桑那州建立代工廠。

EU officials have been talking about perhaps incentivizing more domestic production.

歐盟官員一直在談論可能會刺激更多的國內生產。

Japan, the same.

日本也一樣。

So I'm just kind of curious, given your vantage point in the industry, how important of a trend do you think this will be, this idea of regionalization of semi capacity?

所以我有點好奇，鑑於你在行業中的優勢，你認為這種半產能區域化的想法會有多重要？

And what kind of potential growth driver could it be for your business?

它對您的業務有什麼樣的潛在增長驅動力？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, John.

謝謝你的問題，約翰。

So first off, I would say that, really, the major focus for all our customers is to drive their road maps, deliver the lowest power, highest performance chips at the best cost And I deeply believe that the future road map is going to look very different than the past.

所以首先，我想說的是，我們所有客戶的主要關注點是推動他們的路線圖，以最佳成本提供最低功耗、最高性能的芯片。我深信未來的路線圖將看起來與過去大不相同。

I've talked before about classic Moore's Law and 2D scaling not being enough to enable the future AI infrastructure at the edge and in the cloud.

我之前曾談到經典的摩爾定律和 2D 縮放不足以在邊緣和雲中啟用未來的 AI 基礎設施。

So I do believe kind of aligned with your question that this is highly strategic for many countries in many regions.

因此，我確實認為這與您的問題是一致的，這對許多地區的許多國家來說都具有高度戰略意義。

And I do -- we do see that certainly, we see some near-term trends with big customers moving to new regions in alignment with that trend.

我確實 - 我們確實看到了這一點，我們看到了一些近期趨勢，大客戶根據這一趨勢轉移到新地區。

And I think that, that's going to continue.

我認為，這將繼續下去。

So it definitely creates an opportunity for Applied going forward.

因此，這無疑為應用材料公司的發展創造了機會。

Certainly, as these customers are moving to new regions, the support in terms of accelerating their R&D, their ramp, transfer of technologies into these new regions, all of that creates a great service opportunity for us.

當然，隨著這些客戶正在轉移到新的地區，在加速他們的研發、他們的斜坡、技術轉移到這些新地區方面的支持，所有這些都為我們創造了一個很好的服務機會。

And then even more important, as I said, I do believe the future is going to look different than the past.

然後更重要的是，正如我所說，我相信未來看起來會與過去不同。

We're at an inflection point in the industry relative to how you drive the technology forward.

相對於您如何推動技術向前發展，我們正處於行業的轉折點。

One of our biggest customers 2 months ago talked about their road map beyond 2020 to double energy-efficient computing every 2 years.

2 個月前，我們最大的客戶之一談到了他們在 2020 年後的路線圖，即每 2 年將節能計算翻一番。

And if you go look at the slide 2 months ago, it exactly aligns what I've been talking about with the 5 elements of the playbook around new architectures, new materials, new structures, new ways to shrink and new ways to connect chips together with advanced packaging.

如果你看一下 2 個月前的幻燈片，它與我一直在談論的內容與劇本中圍繞新架構、新材料、新結構、新的縮小方法和將芯片連接在一起的新方法的 5 個要素完全一致採用先進的封裝。

So exactly what we've been talking about.

這正是我們一直在談論的。

And Applied is in a really great position with innovative products and integrated solutions to enable that new PPACt playbook.

Applied 在創新產品和集成解決方案方面處於非常有利的地位，可以實現新的 PPACt 劇本。

So I think we've never been in a better position.

所以我認為我們從未處於更好的位置。

And again, I do believe that the industry is at an inflection point, and the countries and the companies that are best aligned to this new playbook, and get their first they are going to win, it's very, very important for the whole AI infrastructure going forward.

再說一次，我確實相信這個行業正處於一個轉折點，最符合這個新劇本的國家和公司，並首先獲得勝利，這對整個人工智能基礎設施來說非常非常重要往前走。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, my first question is on inspection.

加里，我的第一個問題是檢查。

I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about your business being up 46%.

我認為在您準備好的講話中，您談到您的業務增長了 46%。

And I think it was your systems business was up 46% in fiscal 2020.

我認為這是您的系統業務在 2020 財年增長了 46%。

You probably outperformed most of your peers, if not all your peers during that time frame.

在這段時間裡，如果不是所有的同齡人，你可能會超過大多數同齡人。

Where are you seeing the most traction in inspection?

您在檢查中看到的最大牽引力在哪裡？

And how should we think about sustainability for that business into 2021?

我們應該如何考慮到 2021 年該業務的可持續性？

And then I've got a quick follow-up.

然後我有一個快速跟進。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Toshiya, for the question.

謝謝，Toshiya，你的問題。

So absolutely, the inspection business is a real bright spot for the company.

因此，檢驗業務絕對是公司的一大亮點。

And as you mentioned, we grew the systems revenue by 46%.

正如你所提到的，我們的系統收入增長了 46%。

We have a new optical inspection system and new e-beam products that are seeing strong initial adoption with leading customers.

我們有一個新的光學檢測系統和新的電子束產品，這些產品在主要客戶中得到了廣泛的採用。

And in both areas, we have a lot of room to grow, and we'll make an official launch fairly soon on some of these new capabilities.

在這兩個領域，我們都有很大的發展空間，我們很快就會正式發布其中一些新功能。

And the other thing I would say, certainly, the -- in this business, we have some really, really great leading technology.

我要說的另一件事，當然是——在這個行業，我們擁有一些非常非常棒的領先技術。

And the other aspect that's important for Applied is the connection in driving the PPACt road map, the analysis of all of these new innovations.

另一個對 Applied 很重要的方面是推動 PPACt 路線圖的聯繫，以及對所有這些新創新的分析。

When you think about wiring to lower resistance to improve the power or gate all around for high-performance transistors, having these unique imaging capabilities, and we have launched a product that has dramatically higher resolution than any product -- e-beam product that's on the market today, being able to see those data all around structures and understand how to drive the different films and shaping the structures and modifying the structures, all of that tied together is also tremendously synergistic with the rest of our business and driving the PPACt road map.

當您考慮通過佈線來降低電阻以提高高性能晶體管的功率或柵極時，擁有這些獨特的成像能力，我們推出了一款分辨率比任何產品都高得多的產品——電子束產品今天的市場，能夠看到圍繞結構的這些數據，並了解如何驅動不同的電影、塑造結構和修改結構，所有這些聯繫在一起也與我們的其他業務產生了巨大的協同作用，並推動了 PPACt 道路地圖。

So we're really in the early adoption of some of these new capabilities.

因此，我們確實處於早期採用其中一些新功能的階段。

I'm very confident that '21 and beyond, we're going to have really good results from our PDC business.

我非常有信心，在 21 年及以後，我們的 PDC 業務將取得非常好的結果。

But also, I'm really excited about the connectivity to the rest of Applied's business in accelerating the PPACt road map for customers.

而且，我真的很高興與應用材料公司的其他業務建立聯繫，以加速為客戶制定 PPACt 路線圖。

Great.

偉大的。

And then, Dan, as my follow-up, just on gross margin.

然後，丹，作為我的後續行動，就毛利率而言。

I know there are multiple sort of levers, both to the upside and the downside that could impact gross margins, and you guided to a slightly lower number for fiscal Q1.

我知道有多種槓桿，無論是上行還是下行，都可能影響毛利率，你指導第一財季的數字略低。

But when you think about gross margins longer term.

但是，當您考慮長期毛利率時。

I think at your most recent Analyst Day, you put up a 47% number, if I recall correctly.

如果我沒記錯的話，我認為在你最近的分析師日，你提出了 47% 的數字。

But is that still sort of the right target for you internally?

但這仍然是您內部的正確目標嗎？

Or is it higher or lower?

還是更高或更低？

How should we think about gross margins on a multiyear cadence?

我們應該如何考慮多年節奏的毛利率？

Yes, Toshiya.

是的，東芝。

So from a gross margin standpoint, the company is performing really well.

因此，從毛利率的角度來看，該公司的表現非常好。

If you think about what Gary said in the prepared comments, in fiscal year '20, we're up 110 basis points year-over-year.

如果你想想加里在準備好的評論中所說的話，在 20 財年，我們同比增長了 110 個基點。

Our fiscal Q4, we just reported, we're up 190 basis points year-over-year.

我們剛剛報告的第四財季，我們同比增長了 190 個基點。

And then like you pointed out, we see some different mix as we look into our fiscal Q1.

然後就像您指出的那樣，我們在研究第一財季時看到了一些不同的組合。

It's down a little bit sequentially, but still up year-over-year.

環比有所下降，但仍同比上升。

We think that's a little temporary and that mix is going to reverse itself as we look out into fiscal Q2.

我們認為這有點暫時，隨著我們展望第二財季，這種組合將自行逆轉。

So we think the company is executing well in a difficult environment.

因此，我們認為該公司在困難的環境中表現良好。

When we think about the long-term gross margin, I think the best way to describe it would be 45% plus or minus 2 points, depending on where we are in the cycle.

當我們考慮長期毛利率時，我認為描述它的最佳方式是 45% 正負 2 個百分點，這取決於我們在周期中的位置。

And if you look at the quarter, we just printed, 45.7.

如果您查看該季度，我們剛剛打印了 45.7。

And then you factor in some of the headwinds we're experiencing in the current environment due to COVID and the pandemic, we would be at the upper end of that range we've referenced of 45 plus or minus 2 points.

然後你考慮到我們在當前環境中由於 COVID 和大流行而遇到的一些不利因素，我們將處於我們所引用的 45 正負 2 點範圍的上限。

So I think that model, that framework around gross margin holds and the company is performing well to that.

所以我認為這種模式，圍繞毛利率的框架是成立的，公司在這方面表現良好。

As the legacy impacts and the headwinds from the pandemic begin to wane, I think you would see the performance in the current environment, reflecting that framework around long-term gross margin.

隨著大流行的遺留影響和不利因素開始減弱，我認為您會看到當前環境中的表現，反映了圍繞長期毛利率的框架。

Our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Gary, you made an interesting comment in your prepared remarks that you guys can grow independent of the mix, which is an important distinction from some of your peers, which are more leveraged toward memory or logic.

加里，你在準備好的評論中提出了一個有趣的評論，即你們可以獨立成長，這是與一些同行的重要區別，他們更多地利用記憶或邏輯。

And you talked about the outperformance in etch and inspection markets.

您談到了蝕刻和檢測市場的出色表現。

Looking into next year, where you are most excited about, etch or inspection or different markets?

展望明年，您最感興趣的領域是蝕刻或檢驗或不同的市場？

Yes.

是的。

So I would say if I look at what am I most excited about, it's what I talked about earlier that I really believe that the industry is at an important inflection point.

所以我想說，如果我看看我最興奮的是什麼，那就是我之前談到的，我真的相信這個行業正處於一個重要的轉折點。

And you can see this also many leading customers and companies in the ecosystem aligning around our view that classic Moore's Law and 2D scaling is not going to be able to enable the future AI infrastructure at the edge and in the cloud.

您還可以看到，生態系統中的許多領先客戶和公司都支持我們的觀點，即經典摩爾定律和 2D 縮放將無法在邊緣和雲中啟用未來的 AI 基礎設施。

And you see this playing out in terms of the marketplace from a competitive standpoint.

從競爭的角度來看，你會看到這在市場方面正在發揮作用。

The companies that deliver lower power, higher performance at the best cost faster than others, that's the fundamental driver of all of our customers in the ecosystem.

以最佳成本提供更低功耗、更高性能的公司比其他公司更快，這是我們生態系統中所有客戶的基本驅動力。

So Applied is in a great position to outperform because we have many unique technologies and combination of products that are used to create, shape, modify, analyze and connect structures and devices.

因此，Applied 處於領先地位，因為我們擁有許多用於創建、塑造、修改、分析和連接結構和設備的獨特技術和產品組合。

So I think I talked on the last call about our performance in some of our deposition businesses.

所以我想我在上次電話會議上談到了我們在一些沉積業務中的表現。

Last year, we gained 8 points of combined share in Epi, PVD, CVD amounting to about $5.2 billion.

去年，我們在 Epi、PVD、CVD 的總份額增加了 8 個百分點，總額約為 52 億美元。

This year, we grew our metals deposition business 42% to $2.2 billion.

今年，我們的金屬沉積業務增長了 42%，達到 22 億美元。

So these leadership businesses are very key to enabling next-generation transistor and wiring, materials and structures and combined with other unique capabilities, I'm really optimistic about our opportunities as we go forward to drive the PPACt road map.

因此，這些領先業務對於實現下一代晶體管和佈線、材料和結構非常關鍵，並結合其他獨特的能力，我對我們推進 PPACt 路線圖的機會感到非常樂觀。

And as you mentioned, etch, we're also performing very well in etch, significant growth in this last year.

正如你提到的，蝕刻，我們在蝕刻方面的表現也非常好，在去年有顯著增長。

We've expanded beyond our strength in memory to foundry and logic, where we're winning steps.

我們已經超越了我們在記憶方面的實力，擴展到了代工和邏輯，我們正在取得成功。

We're winning EUV steps as customers are moving to future technology nodes and really, really, really great performance there.

隨著客戶轉向未來的技術節點，我們正在贏得 EUV 步驟，並且那裡的性能非常非常好。

It's -- that's really based on our new Sym3 platform, probably the best platform in the history of Applied Materials and there are real fundamental advantages.

它——這真的是基於我們新的 Sym3 平台，可能是應用材料公司歷史上最好的平台，並且有真正的基本優勢。

One is conductance.

一是電導。

Conductance is where you remove the etch materials from the chamber, so you're not redepositing on the structures and causing yield and performance issues also particles that are deposited on the chamber.

電導是您從腔室中去除蝕刻材料的地方，因此您不會在結構上重新沉積並導致產量和性能問題以及沉積在腔室上的顆粒。

So that's just a fundamental advantage of that particular technology.

所以這只是該特定技術的一個基本優勢。

Also, I'm on the phone often with R&D leaders last night with one of the -- our top logic customers and we are seeing yield benefits with the Sym3.

此外，昨晚我經常與研發負責人通電話——我們的頂級邏輯客戶之一，我們看到了 Sym3 的收益優勢。

They're seeing yield benefits with the Sym3 with new coatings that we've enabled on that platform that, again, is giving us better particle performance.

他們看到 Sym3 的產量優勢以及我們在該平台上啟用的新塗層，這再次為我們提供了更好的粒子性能。

So etch, again, very, very good momentum.

所以再次蝕刻，非常非常好的勢頭。

And I talked already about inspection and we are in the early phases of adoption of some new products.

我已經談到了檢查，我們正處於採用一些新產品的早期階段。

I'm also very optimistic about that business as we go forward.

隨著我們的發展，我也對這項業務非常樂觀。

But the really key thing that I'm most excited about is I do believe the industry is at an inflection point.

但我最興奮的真正關鍵是我確實相信這個行業正處於一個轉折點。

The future is not classic Moore's Law 2D scaling.

未來不是經典的摩爾定律 2D 縮放。

And you look at what I talked about relative to creating and modifying and analyzing, connecting all of the structures and devices.

你看看我談到的關於創建、修改和分析、連接所有結構和設備的內容。

We're really in a unique position.

我們確實處於一個獨特的位置。

So again, we are doing really well in different environments from a mix perspective.

再說一次，從混合的角度來看，我們在不同的環境中都做得很好。

And I believe that we're at the foundation of enabling the technologies for this future AI infrastructure.

我相信我們是為未來的人工智能基礎設施啟用技術的基礎。

Great.

偉大的。

And as my follow-up, Dan, domestic China WFE still in that $9 billion to $10 billion range for this year.

作為我的後續行動，Dan，今年中國國內 WFE 仍處於 90 億至 100 億美元的範圍內。

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Our view on that hasn't changed.

我們對此的看法沒有改變。

We've been pretty consistent on that over time.

隨著時間的推移，我們在這一點上一直保持一致。

It's going to be in that $9 billion to $10 billion range.

它將在 90 億至 100 億美元的範圍內。

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them.

我有 2 個。

First one for Dan.

第一個給丹。

Dan, are we still targeting a December end close for the Kokusai acquisition?

丹，我們是否仍將目標定在 12 月底結束對 Kokusai 的收購？

Or can it be delayed further?

還是可以進一步推遲？

And along the same path, any kind of buyback increase?

沿著同樣的道路，任何形式的回購增加？

Is it really tied to the outcome of what happens with Kokusai?

它真的與Kokusai發生的事情的結果有關嗎？

And then I had a follow-up for Gary.

然後我對加里進行了跟進。

Sure, Krish.

當然，克里希。

So as you know, we've gotten 5 of the 6 regulatory authorities to approve the transaction.

如您所知，我們已經獲得了 6 個監管機構中的 5 個批准該交易。

We're constructively engaged with the remaining authority and we continue to be optimistic that we're going to receive clearance by the end of the calendar year.

我們正在與剩餘當局進行建設性的接觸，並且我們繼續樂觀地認為我們將在日曆年年底前獲得許可。

So we'll stay focused on that.

因此，我們將繼續專注於此。

From a buyback standpoint, once we close the transaction, integrate the asset, I think we'll come back to the investment community and put forward a combined company model over the next several years to give investors a perspective of how the combined company will perform part of that communication, we'll talk about what our capital allocation strategy going forward is.

從回購的角度來看，一旦我們完成交易，整合資產，我認為我們會在未來幾年回到投資界並提出合併公司模式，讓投資者了解合併後公司的表現作為交流的一部分，我們將討論我們未來的資本配置策略是什麼。

But I wouldn't be surprised if it's what we've been doing now for quite time, which is very shareholder-friendly in terms of giving all excess cash back to shareholders and big buyers of our stock.

但是，如果這是我們長期以來一直在做的事情，我不會感到驚訝，這對股東非常友好，可以將所有多餘的現金返還給股東和我們股票的大買家。

Given what we see happening from an overall market standpoint, the structural growth we see and the execution of this company against that opportunity, we see our industry going structurally larger, higher highs, higher lows.

鑑於我們從整體市場的角度看到的情況、我們看到的結構性增長以及這家公司針對這一機會的執行情況，我們看到我們的行業在結構上將變得更大、更高的高點、更高的低點。

And we think there's a real opportunity to put capital to work from a share repurchase standpoint.

而且我們認為從股票回購的角度來看，確實有機會將資金投入使用。

So we'll probably continue what we've been doing now for many years.

所以我們可能會繼續我們多年來一直在做的事情。

But we'll have that conversation once we get the investment community together post close of the transaction.

但是，一旦我們在交易結束後讓投資界聚在一起，我們就會進行對話。

Got it.

知道了。

And then a longer-term question for Gary.

然後是加里的一個長期問題。

Gary, on China, I'm not looking at it from a political angle but from a long-term business and philosophical standpoint, do you think it's good business practice for AMAT or other U.S. semi cap to ship to China?

加里，關於中國，我不是從政治角度來看，而是從長期的商業和哲學的角度來看，你認為 AMAT 或其他美國半導體公司運往中國是否是良好的商業實踐？

Because on one side, you're balancing the needs of your customers, but also on the flip side, it might enable local competition or reverse engineering or how do you protect your IP.

因為一方面，您正在平衡客戶的需求，但另一方面，它可能會促成本地競爭或逆向工程，或者您如何保護您的 IP。

So I'm kind of curious, how do you balance those 2 as China gets bigger?

所以我有點好奇，隨著中國變大，你如何平衡這兩者？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的問題。

Local competition has been a factor for us for many, many years in many different regions.

多年來，在許多不同地區，本地競爭一直是我們的一個因素。

And I just keep coming back to the leading companies want to work with the most innovative technologies and products.

我只是不斷地回到想要使用最具創新性的技術和產品的領先公司。

And there's just no way to go forward with the technology road maps if you don't have the combinations of those different technologies.

如果你沒有這些不同技術的組合，就沒有辦法推進技術路線圖。

And as I've said before, I just deeply believe that the future doesn't look like the past.

正如我之前所說，我只是堅信未來不會像過去那樣。

I don't believe that following the classic 2D Moore's Law playbook is the path forward for the industry or to enable this AI infrastructure.

我不認為遵循經典的 2D 摩爾定律劇本是行業前進的道路或啟用這種人工智能基礎設施。

So there's going to be tremendous innovation.

所以會有巨大的創新。

I mentioned earlier, one of the -- one of our leading customers 2 months ago, if you look at their architecture day, and they talked about the road forward beyond 2020 for energy-efficient computing to double every 2 years, and it was exactly aligned with the things that I've been talking about over the last 2 years with the new architectures, new structures, new materials, EUV enhancements and new ways to connect the chips together with 3D advanced packaging.

我之前提到過，2 個月前我們的主要客戶之一，如果你看看他們的架構日，他們談到了 2020 年以後的道路，節能計算每 2 年翻一番，這正是與我在過去 2 年中一直在談論的事情一致，包括新架構、新結構、新材料、EUV 增強以及將芯片與 3D 高級封裝連接在一起的新方法。

So I just believe there's going to be tremendous innovation.

所以我相信會有巨大的創新。

All of this is going to be a moving target relative to the products.

所有這些都將成為相對於產品的移動目標。

And the other thing is you have the opportunity to connect these products and technologies together in unique ways to manage the interfaces and the interfaces on these structures are becoming much more critical than they've ever been in the past.

另一件事是您有機會以獨特的方式將這些產品和技術連接在一起以管理接口，並且這些結構上的接口變得比以往任何時候都更加重要。

So we know -- we've talked about some innovations in the transistor where we can enable enormous improvements in leakage current or drive current, and it really comes from being able to combine these technologies together, not oxidized or damage those interfaces.

所以我們知道——我們已經討論了晶體管的一些創新，我們可以在這些創新中實現漏電流或驅動電流的巨大改進，這真的來自於能夠將這些技術結合在一起，而不是氧化或損壞這些接口。

Those are completely unique capabilities that you really -- having this portfolio is a tremendous advantage, a very unique advantage for Applied.

這些是您真正擁有的完全獨特的能力——擁有這個產品組合是一個巨大的優勢，對於 Applied 來說是一個非常獨特的優勢。

So look, I think that the world will operate the best, certainly with fair and free trade and that these inflections that we're seeing today around AI, biggest inflections of our lifetimes will transform every industry, and Applied is right at the foundation of those inflections.

所以看，我認為世界將運行得最好，當然是公平和自由貿易，而且我們今天看到的圍繞人工智能的這些變化，我們一生中最大的變化將改變每個行業，而 Applied 正是那些變化。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

I had 2. I guess, Gary, first, I know you think about capital intensity a lot.

我有 2 個。我想，加里，首先，我知道你經常考慮資本密集度。

And I've seen your charts, and I totally agree with the 10.5% to 11% longer-term WFE intensity.

我看過你的圖表，我完全同意 10.5% 到 11% 的長期 WFE 強度。

And it seems like if you strip out some of the duplicative spending today, there's probably at least $3 billion to $4 billion in China that's not backed by revenue.

如果你今天剔除一些重複支出，中國可能至少有 30 億到 40 億美元沒有收入支持。

So it seems like if you just strip that out, we're probably closer to like 12% right now.

所以看起來如果你把它去掉，我們現在可能接近 12%。

So I know when you think longer term, you do a lot of modeling about longer-term WFE.

所以我知道當你考慮更長期的時候，你會做很多關於長期 WFE 的建模。

But when you kind of think about where WFE can go and you build out an underlying semiconductor revenue number.

但是，當您考慮 WFE 可以去哪裡並建立一個潛在的半導體收入數字時。

Is it fair to use like a 12% sort of a real or a core WFE intensity number?

使用 12% 的真實或核心 WFE 強度數字是否公平？

And then you can like layer on top of that spending that you think might happen because of the issues that John had mentioned before, but that's not real dollars that's backed by revenue.

然後，您可以在您認為由於約翰之前提到的問題而可能發生的支出之上增加一層，但這不是由收入支持的真正美元。

So the question is, is that 12% a good number?

所以問題是，12% 是個好數字嗎？

Tim, this is Dan.

蒂姆，這是丹。

I'll jump in on this one.

我會加入這個。

So I do think 12% is a good number to start with.

所以我確實認為 12% 是一個很好的開始。

Do I think there's an upward bias on that over time, given what we see from a technology road map standpoint?

考慮到我們從技術路線圖的角度來看，我認為隨著時間的推移會有向上的偏見嗎？

Yes, I think you can make that argument.

是的，我認為你可以提出這個論點。

But I think 12% is a good number to lock in on.

但我認為 12% 是一個很好的鎖定數字。

Just a couple more perspectives on it.

只是對它有更多的看法。

We talk about when 300-millimeter came in around the 2000 time frame, we saw multiple concurrent investments in both wafer size technologies, and we saw probably 17%.

我們談到在 2000 年左右出現 300 毫米時，我們看到了對兩種晶圓尺寸技術的多項同時投資，我們看到的可能是 17%。

So that's probably an all-time high.

所以這可能是歷史最高點。

Now what you saw is the 300-millimeter wafer size technology came into the industry and all of the efficiency gains that came with it, as well as the consolidation of our customer base.

現在您看到的是 300 毫米晶圓尺寸技術進入行業，隨之而來的所有效率提升，以及我們客戶群的鞏固。

We hit a low point in 2013 at about 9%, and it's been on a steady upward trajectory since then.

我們在 2013 年達到了 9% 左右的低點，此後一直處於穩步上升的軌道上。

And so we think the trend is a pretty good one.

所以我們認為這個趨勢是一個很好的趨勢。

The other thing I would point you to, and maybe this is a little bit of a different way of thinking about the industry.

我要指出的另一件事，也許這是對行業的一種不同的思考方式。

If you take that low point of capital intensity and you combine 2012 and 2013 as a combined 2-year window and then compare it to the next 2-year combined window of '13 and '14, compare that to the next 2-year window of '14 and '15 and onwards, when you do that exercise out to 2021 and what you'll see is each successive 2-year windows with an upwardly sloping line.

如果你把資本密集度的低點結合起來，將 2012 年和 2013 年合併為 2 年窗口，然後將其與 '13 和 '14 的下一個 2 年合併窗口進行比較，然後將其與下一個 2 年窗口進行比較在 14 年和 15 年及以後，當您進行到 2021 年的練習時，您會看到每個連續的 2 年窗口都有一條向上傾斜的線。

And so we think our industry has gone from no growth cyclical to growth with an upward sloping trend line, and we'll see higher highs and higher lows as that thesis plays out.

因此，我們認為我們的行業已經從無週期性增長轉變為具有向上傾斜趨勢線的增長，隨著這一論點的展開，我們將看到更高的高點和更高的低點。

And so we feel really good about where this industry is going in support of all the thematic trends that Gary has talked about for many quarters now.

因此，我們對這個行業的發展方向感到非常滿意，以支持 Gary 已經談論了很多個季度的所有主題趨勢。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Got it, Dan.

明白了，丹。

And then I guess my second question is just on DRAM.

然後我想我的第二個問題只是關於 DRAM。

I know, Gary, you sort of emphasized that DRAM is going to outgrow NAND on a percentage basis next year, which, I guess, sounds a little ominous for DRAM.

我知道，Gary，你有點強調明年 DRAM 的增長百分比將超過 NAND，我想這對 DRAM 來說聽起來有點不祥。

But can you put that in the context of demand?

但是你能把它放在需求的背景下嗎？

It seems like DRAM WFE is certainly coming off of a much lower base this year.

看來 DRAM WFE 今年的基數肯定要低得多。

And on the supply side, we're in a far better point right now than we are in NAND.

在供應方面，我們現在的情況比 NAND 好得多。

So can you sort of back those numbers into what that means for the supply-demand balance next year?

那麼，您能否將這些數字回歸到這對明年的供需平衡意味著什麼？

Yes, sure, Tim.

是的，當然，蒂姆。

I'll jump in on that one again.

我會再跳進去的。

And I think the best way to get at this and unpack it for the investment community is talk about what we see in 2020 and then use that as a jumping-off point to describe the contours around 2021.

我認為解決這個問題並為投資界解開它的最佳方式是談論我們在 2020 年看到的情況，然後以此為起點來描述 2021 年左右的輪廓。

So starting with 2020, we continue to see the overall market up 10% to 15%.

所以從 2020 年開始，我們繼續看到整體市場增長 10% 到 15%。

We're probably at the high end of that range.

我們可能處於該範圍的高端。

We talked about Applied Systems business against a market that's up 15%.

我們在一個上漲 15% 的市場中討論了應用系統業務。

Our systems business is going to be up 25% for the calendar year.

我們的系統業務將在本日曆年增長 25%。

By device type, we see foundry/logic greater than 55% in 2020, but it's growing below the market average.

按器件類型，我們認為 2020 年代工/邏輯器件佔比超過 55%，但增速低於市場平均水平。

DRAM on the memory side of the house, DRAM, it's growing a little faster than the overall market.

DRAM內存方面的DRAM，它的增長速度比整體市場快一點。

I think the real story in 2020 is NAND.

我認為 2020 年真正的故事是 NAND。

NAND is growing 2x the overall market in 2020.

NAND 在 2020 年將增長 2 倍於整體市場。

And so I think that's maybe a little contrary to what the conventional thinking is around 2020.

所以我認為這可能與 2020 年左右的傳統想法有點相反。

2020 is a memory growth year, especially for NAND and against that backdrop of the memory growth year, Applied is outperforming very nicely.

2020 年是內存增長年，尤其是對於 NAND，在內存增長年的背景下，應用材料公司的表現非常出色。

So we feel good about 2020.

所以我們對2020年感覺很好。

As we look into 2021, we expect another strong year for the industry and for Applied.

展望 2021 年，我們預計該行業和 Applied 將迎來又一個強勁的一年。

And while we're not sharing a specific forecast around WFE, I think it's premature to be point specific at this time, we see foundry/logic is going to continue to be strong, and we see it as over 55% of total WFE again next year.

雖然我們沒有分享關於 WFE 的具體預測，但我認為目前具體點還為時過早，我們看到代工/邏輯將繼續保持強勁，我們認為它再次佔 WFE 總量的 55% 以上明年。

But what you'll see in the memory side of the house is going to be a reversal from a growth standpoint.

但從增長的角度來看，你會在房子的內存方面看到的是逆轉。

NAND, we expect to be flattish year-over-year, and DRAM set up to significantly outgrow the market.

NAND，我們預計將同比持平，而 DRAM 的增長將大大超過市場。

So this is a great setup for Applied, given the strong share gains we've been talking about now throughout 2020 in DRAM.

因此，鑑於我們在整個 2020 年一直在談論 DRAM 的強勁份額增長，這對 Applied 來說是一個很好的設置。

It gives us confidence as we look into 2021 that the setup from an overall end market standpoint, strong foundry/logic, flattish NAND, strong DRAM, it's a good setup for Applied as we look into next year.

當我們展望 2021 年時，它讓我們充滿信心，從整體終端市場的角度來看，強大的代工/邏輯、平坦的 NAND、強大的 DRAM，這對於我們展望明年的應用來說是一個很好的設置。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Great job on the quarterly execution.

在季度執行方面做得很好。

On your commentary on leading-edge systems driving much of the incremental revenue growth this year with lagging edge system shipments muted just given the weakness in auto, industrial and analog segments of the market.

關於您對領先系統推動今年大部分增量收入增長的評論，而由於汽車、工業和模擬市場的疲軟，落後的系統出貨量卻有所減弱。

The recovery in these markets we're seeing now and into next year should be a tailwind for the business.

我們現在和明年看到的這些市場的複甦應該是對該業務的順風。

And so what's your expectation on the mix of leading edge versus lagging edge over the next few years, just given the number of new 12-inch analog fabs and microcontroller content and analog content growth in all electronic applications?

那麼，鑑於新的 12 英寸模擬晶圓廠和微控制器內容的數量以及所有電子應用中模擬內容的增長，您對未來幾年的領先與落後的混合有何期望？

And what's your positioning in these segments of the market?

您在這些細分市場中的定位是什麼？

Harlan, I'll jump in on that one.

哈蘭，我會加入那個。

I think you pointed out rightfully, this is a little bit of a weaker market for the trailing-node geometries.

我認為您正確地指出，對於尾節點幾何形狀來說，這是一個較弱的市場。

A couple of quarters ago or even last quarter, we talked about auto and industrial markets showing some signs of weakness as a result of the pandemic.

幾個季度前甚至上個季度，我們談到汽車和工業市場由於大流行而顯示出一些疲軟跡象。

Since then, we've seen those end markets continuing to perform stronger.

從那時起，我們看到這些終端市場繼續表現強勁。

But I think it's going to follow the natural progression we would see in any one of our end markets off of low utilization levels.

但我認為它將遵循我們在任何一個終端市場中看到的低利用率水平的自然進展。

We see utilization rise once utilization gets to a certain level, then you'll see customers begin to layer in capacity.

一旦利用率達到一定水平，我們就會看到利用率上升，然後您會看到客戶開始增加容量。

And so I would expect to see legs up in those markets, trailing-node geometries as we look into next year.

因此，我希望在我們展望明年的時候看到這些市場中的腿，尾隨節點的幾何形狀。

Longer term, we think the trailing-node geometries as a result of communications infrastructure, industrial, auto, Internet of Things, there's a whole host of drivers that are taking that industry structurally larger over time and we would expect that trailing-node geometries segment to outgrow the overall market over a multiyear window.

從長遠來看，我們認為作為通信基礎設施、工業、汽車、物聯網的結果的尾節點幾何，隨著時間的推移，有很多驅動因素正在使該行業在結構上更大，我們預計尾節點幾何部分在多年的窗口中增長超過整體市場。

So we feel good about it.

所以我們對此感覺良好。

In the near term, while customers are pulling really hard multiple customers, multiple nodes on the leading edge, you've seen a rotation from a very balanced foundry/logic market between leading edge and trailing-node to probably more weighted to leading-edge technologies in the current environment.

在短期內，雖然客戶非常努力地吸引多個客戶，多個節點處於領先地位，但您已經看到了從前沿和後繼節點之間非常平衡的代工/邏輯市場到可能更偏向領先的輪換當前環境下的技術。

Over time, we would expect that to moderate a bit and get back to a more balanced profile than what we've seen maybe in 2020 or 2021.

隨著時間的推移，我們預計這種情況會有所緩和，並恢復到比我們在 2020 年或 2021 年看到的情況更加平衡的狀態。

But we do think that those markets are set up to do well.

但我們確實認為這些市場已經做好了準備。

And we're encouraged by that because any time you broaden the growth drivers of an industry, it just makes it structurally stronger, less cyclical, less volatile, and we think that, that's going to benefit this industry significantly.

我們對此感到鼓舞，因為任何時候你拓寬一個行業的增長動力，它只會使它在結構上更強大，週期性更少，波動性更小，我們認為，這將使這個行業受益匪淺。

From a positioning standpoint, we're well positioned competitively across that entire node profile.

從定位的角度來看，我們在整個節點配置文件中處於競爭優勢。

And so we're going to continue to deliver enabling technology to the market, and we'll continue to see strong pull from customers top to bottom across the node profiles.

因此，我們將繼續向市場提供支持技術，我們將繼續看到客戶從上到下在節點配置文件中的強大拉動。

And then as the industry moves towards more innovative and complex packaging technologies, multichip modules, chiplet strategy, actually, in some cases, even seen the return of [litho] scale integration.

然後隨著行業向更創新和更複雜的封裝技術、多芯片模塊、小芯片策略發展，實際上，在某些情況下，甚至看到了 [光刻] 規模集成的回歸。

I'm pleasantly surprised by the size of Applied's Advanced Packaging business, $500 million in revenues this year.

我對應用材料公司先進封裝業務的規模感到驚喜，今年的收入為 5 億美元。

How big is this market do you estimate?

你估計這個市場有多大？

And what type of growth outlook do you guys see for this emerging segment of the business?

你們認為這個新興業務領域的增長前景如何？

Yes.

是的。

So as I mentioned before, the packaging part of the ecosystem is one of the key drivers.

所以正如我之前提到的，生態系統的包裝部分是關鍵驅動因素之一。

There's the 5 drivers that I talked about before.

這是我之前談到的 5 個驅動程序。

And then you see this being also discussed by many leading companies, our customers, other companies in the ecosystem, fabless companies relative to the importance of packaging.

然後你會看到許多領先公司、我們的客戶、生態系統中的其他公司、無晶圓廠公司也討論了這一點，這些公司與包裝的重要性有關。

I definitely think if you look at the power performance and costs going forward, packaging is really, really, really important.

我絕對認為，如果你看一下未來的功率性能和成本，封裝真的非常非常重要。

And we have a very strong position.

我們有一個非常強大的地位。

We're #1 in advanced wafer-level packaging.

我們在先進的晶圓級封裝方面排名第一。

And we're working with a number of different ecosystem partners.

我們正在與許多不同的生態系統合作夥伴合作。

We talked about a partner with another company to deliver the first -- industry's first fully integrated solution for hybrid bonding, where you can connect 2 chips together in die form, and that enables shorter interconnect distance, 4x increase in I/O density.

我們談到了與另一家公司的合作夥伴提供第一個 - 業界第一個完全集成的混合鍵合解決方案，您可以將 2 個芯片以裸片形式連接在一起，從而縮短互連距離，將 I/O 密度提高 4 倍。

So there's a lot of innovation that's going to happen in that market.

因此，該市場將發生很多創新。

And we have very, very strong positions.

我們有非常非常強大的立場。

If you look at just that 1 particular innovation, you need to optimize etch CMP deposition, wafer surface cleaning.

如果您只看那一項創新，您需要優化蝕刻 CMP 沉積、晶圓表面清潔。

We have metrology inspection, defect particle control that we can add to enable that inflection.

我們有計量檢測、缺陷顆粒控制，我們可以添加這些來實現這種變化。

And then we also have the center of excellence at Applied's advanced packaging technology center in Singapore.

此外，我們還在新加坡應用材料公司的先進封裝技術中心設有卓越中心。

And we have some very large leading customers working with us on some of these new innovative architectures.

我們有一些非常大的領先客戶與我們合作開發其中一些新的創新架構。

So I'm really excited.

所以我真的很興奮。

Certainly, it's a meaningful part of our business today.

當然，它是我們今天業務的重要組成部分。

But I think we're really at the early phase of the adoption of many of these new technologies, and we are #1 in advanced packaging, expanding with partnerships through the ecosystem.

但我認為我們確實處於採用許多這些新技術的早期階段，我們在先進封裝領域排名第一，通過生態系統擴大合作夥伴關係。

So I'm excited about it.

所以我很興奮。

I don't want to give a specific number right now.

我現在不想給出具體數字。

But I think it's going to become much more important than most people realize in the ecosystem.

但我認為它會變得比大多數人在生態系統中意識到的要重要得多。

Our next question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton from Needham.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham 的 Quinn Bolton。

Congratulations on the nice results and outlook.

祝賀取得了不錯的成績和前景。

Just not to take anything away from what you've achieved this year in the foundry/logic and DRAM segments but if I look at your NAND revenue, at least in fiscal '20, revenue was roughly flat year-on-year, where it sounds like the overall NAND WFE may be up close to 30%.

只是不要從你今年在代工/邏輯和 DRAM 領域取得的成就中拿走任何東西，但如果我看看你的 NAND 收入，至少在 20 財年，收入與去年同期大致持平，聽起來整體 NAND WFE 可能會接近 30%。

So it looks like you've lost share this year.

所以看起來你今年失去了份額。

Wondering as you look forward, are there opportunities to stem that share loss in fiscal '21?

在您期待的同時想知道，在 21 財年是否有機會阻止這種份額損失？

Or does your outperformance really depend on continued strength in DRAM and foundry/logic?

還是您的出色表現真的取決於 DRAM 和代工/邏輯的持續實力？

Yes.

是的。

Quinn, I think you may be drawing the wrong conclusion.

奎因，我想你可能得出了錯誤的結論。

When we talked about the WFE end market and we talked about NAND, that's a calendar year comment.

當我們談到 WFE 終端市場和談到 NAND 時，這是一個日曆年的評論。

And so if you look at the first 3 quarters of calendar year '20, you see our NAND business up significantly more than the flat you referenced.

因此，如果您查看 20 日曆年的前 3 個季度，您會發現我們的 NAND 業務增長明顯超過您所引用的單位。

And at the midpoint of our guide, we won't talk about by device type, but I think you'll see the performance of that business roughly in line with the overall market.

在我們指南的中點，我們不會按設備類型討論，但我認為您會看到該業務的表現與整體市場大致一致。

It's just the peculiarities of quarters when they happen to hit and the revenue expectations within those quarters.

這只是碰巧遇到季度的特殊性以及這些季度內的收入預期。

And so if you look at the quarterly profile for the trailing 12 months, you'll see that the 1 quarter out there from a historical standpoint was quite large showing performance this year.

因此，如果您查看過去 12 個月的季度概況，您會發現從歷史的角度來看，第一個季度在今年的表現相當不錯。

On a fiscal year basis, flattish.

在財政年度的基礎上，持平。

The first 3 quarters of 2020, you see a very different number.

2020 年前三個季度，你會看到一個非常不同的數字。

And when we're talking 3 months from now at next quarter's results, I think you'll see a business that's more roughly in line with the overall market.

當我們談論從現在起 3 個月後的下一季度業績時，我認為您會看到一個與整體市場更大致相符的業務。

So we're very comfortable, confident with how we're positioned within that end market.

因此，我們對自己在該終端市場中的定位感到非常滿意和自信。

And we're going to continue to drive our business and technology and look to do better over time.

我們將繼續推動我們的業務和技術，並希望隨著時間的推移做得更好。

Our final question then comes from Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo.

我們的最後一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I was curious on your prepared remarks, you talked about a long-term service agreements now, 1/3 of those being over 3 years.

我很好奇你準備的評論，你現在談到的是長期服務協議，其中 1/3 超過 3 年。

When you look at your current kind of book of contracts for your installed base, how do you think about that trending over the next few quarters?

當您查看您當前的安裝基礎合同書時，您如何看待未來幾個季度的趨勢？

So, Joe, this has been playing out over a multiyear period.

所以，喬，這已經持續了多年。

If we go back in time, at one point, 30% of our revenue was generated from long-term service agreements, then we grew at the 40%, then 50%, now you see it at 60%.

如果我們回到過去，在某一時刻，我們 30% 的收入來自長期服務協議，然後我們增長了 40%，然後增長了 50%，現在你看到了 60%。

I think we've got the right strategy around this business.

我認為我們圍繞這項業務制定了正確的戰略。

You see those long-term service agreements extending out in tenure, which provides even more stability.

您會看到這些長期服務協議在任期內延長，這提供了更大的穩定性。

And we're going to look to drive that number north off of the 60% of revenues over time.

隨著時間的推移，我們將尋求將這個數字從 60% 的收入中剔除。

We're going to look to continue to drive that number north.

我們將尋求繼續將這個數字推向北方。

So we'll take it 1 quarter at a time, 1 year at a time and continue to execute against our strategy but we see more headroom against that number and look to push this business forward in a much more stable, growth-oriented way.

因此，我們將一次 1 個季度，一次 1 年進行，並繼續執行我們的戰略，但我們看到這個數字有更多的空間，並希望以更穩定、以增長為導向的方式推動這項業務向前發展。

And Dan, would you like to help us close out the call today.

丹，你願意幫助我們結束今天的電話會議嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，邁克。

I'm really pleased that in a year, we're all going to remember for its extraordinary challenges.

我真的很高興在一年後，我們都會記住它非凡的挑戰。

Applied delivered record revenue, earnings, operating cash flow, year-end backlog.

應用程序提供了創紀錄的收入、收益、運營現金流、年終積壓。

And I'd like to sincerely thank our employees and partners for everything they did to support our customers in that difficult environment.

我要衷心感謝我們的員工和合作夥伴，感謝他們在如此艱難的環境中為支持我們的客戶所做的一切。

Looking into next year, just a few quick thoughts to leave you with.

展望明年，只是一些快速的想法留給你。

I think the growth opportunities for the semiconductor industry are bigger than ever.

我認為半導體行業的增長機會比以往任何時候都大。

The industry road map is clearly moving towards our new playbook.

行業路線圖顯然正在朝著我們的新劇本邁進。

And our balanced market exposure lets us perform well regardless of the spending mix.

無論支出組合如何，我們平衡的市場敞口讓我們表現良好。

Our installed base business is growing and making us more resilient across the cycles.

我們的已安裝基礎業務正在增長，並使我們在整個週期中更具彈性。

And I'm encouraged by the early green shoots we're seeing in display.

我們看到的早期綠芽讓我感到鼓舞。

Gary and I look forward to seeing many of you at the Credit Suisse conference next month.

加里和我期待在下個月的瑞士信貸會議上見到你們中的許多人。

And until then, I hope you all enjoy a happy and safe Thanksgiving.

在那之前，我希望你們都享受一個快樂而安全的感恩節。

Take care.

小心。

All right.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

That concludes our conference call, and thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

我們的電話會議到此結束，感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了程序。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。

Good day.

再會。