應用材料 (AMAT) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在我將會議交給公司副總裁邁克爾·沙利文。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

各位下午好，感謝各位參加Applied公司2021財年第二季財報電話會議。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson，以及我們的財務長 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的資訊包含在 Applied 向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP財務指標。有關 GAAP 指標的調節表，請參閱今天的獲利新聞稿和我們的季度獲利資料，這些資料可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的 IR 頁面上找到。

Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. We plan to host another masterclass, this time on logic technology, on the 16th of June at 9:00 a.m. Pacific time. We hope you'll join us.

在正式開始之前，我有一個日程安排通知。我們計劃在6月16日上午9點舉辦另一場大師班，這次的主題是邏輯技術。太平洋時間。我們希望您能加入我們。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thank you, Mike. I'm pleased to report another record quarter for Applied Materials, underpinned by strong and broad-based demand across our semiconductor businesses as large secular trends fuel increasing consumption of silicon. I'd like to thank our passionate and hard-working team for delivering these great results. And in particular, I want to acknowledge our operations group and suppliers for successfully overcoming logistics and supply chain challenges in the quarter.

謝謝你，麥克。我很高興地宣布，應用材料公司又迎來了一個創紀錄的季度，這得益於我們半導體業務的強勁而廣泛的需求，因為長期趨勢推動了矽消費量的增加。我要感謝我們充滿熱情、勤奮努力的團隊，是他們取得了這些優異的成績。尤其要感謝我們的營運團隊和供應商，感謝他們在本季成功克服了物流和供應鏈方面的挑戰。

At our recent investor meeting, we described our thesis for the industry, laid out our growth strategy and provided our new financial and capital allocation models. Therefore, in today's call, I will focus my comments on 3 main topics: how we see the current market environment; how Applied is outperforming our markets today; and how we're positioned to grow faster than our markets over the longer term. Later in the call, Dan will talk about our subscription revenues, the strength in our service business and provide more color on our financial performance and outlook.

在最近的投資者會議上，我們闡述了我們對產業的理念，提出了我們的成長策略，並提供了我們新的財務和資本配置模型。因此，在今天的電話會議中，我將重點討論以下三個主要主題：我們如何看待當前的市場環境；Applied 目前如何超越市場表現；以及我們如何在長期內實現比市場更快的成長。在稍後的電話會議中，丹將談到我們的訂閱收入、我們服務業務的優勢，並更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現和前景。

I'll begin with the industry environment. As the world starts to transition to the post-pandemic economy, demand for semiconductors continues to grow. The pandemic accelerated key technology trends that make semiconductors more pervasive and indispensable in people's lives. Current capacity shortfalls in some areas of the market show the highly efficient, just-in-time supply chains that have served the semiconductor industry well for the past 2 decades may not be the most effective strategy going forward. There's a clear desire for the chip industry to build more resilient and flexible supply, including more regionally distributed capacity as the strategic importance of the semiconductor supply chain is increasingly acknowledged at a national level.

我先從產業環境談起。隨著世界開始向後疫情時代的經濟轉型，對半導體的需求持續成長。疫情加速了關鍵技術趨勢的發展，使半導體在人們的生活中更加普及和不可或缺。目前市場某些領域的產能短缺表明，過去二十年來一直為半導體產業服務的高效、準時制供應鏈，可能並非未來最有效的策略。隨著半導體供應鏈的戰略重要性在國家層面日益得到認可，晶片產業顯然希望建立更具韌性和靈活性的供應鏈，包括更多區域分散式產能。

It's also important to recognize that we're still in the early innings of major secular trends that will play out over the next decade and drive the semiconductor and semi-equipment markets structurally higher. At the investor meeting, we described 5 overlapping inflections. First, at a macro level, digital transformation of the economy is rapidly advancing. For individuals, companies and nations, embracing digital transformation is nondiscretionary because it changes the basis of competition. Those who quickly and effectively embrace these new ways of working will emerge as winners. And those who don't or can't adapt, will not keep up.

同樣重要的是要認識到，我們仍處於未來十年將逐步顯現並推動半導體和半導體設備市場結構性成長的重大長期趨勢的早期階段。在投資人會議上，我們描述了 5 個相互重疊的轉捩點。首先，從宏觀層面來看，經濟的數位轉型正在快速推進。對於個人、公司和國家而言，擁抱數位轉型是勢在必行的，因為它改變了競爭的基礎。那些能夠迅速有效地接受這些新的工作方式的人將會成為贏家。而那些不適應或不能適應的人，終將被淘汰。

Digital transformation is driving exponential growth in data generation, which leads to the second major inflection, AI computing. New computing approaches are needed to create value from these massive volumes of data. AI computing works best with workload-specific software and hardware built from customized and entirely new types of silicon.

數位轉型正在推動數據生成呈指數級增長，從而帶來了第二個重大轉折點——人工智慧運算。我們需要新的計算方法來從這些海量資料中創造價值。人工智慧運算與採用客製化和全新類型矽片建構的特定工作負載軟體和硬體配合使用效果最佳。

Third, the benefits of traditional Moore's Law 2D scaling are slowing down, and the semiconductor industry is transitioning to a new playbook to drive power, performance, area, cost and time to market. As the PPACt playbook is adopted, it is driving a step-up in investments across the ecosystem.

第三，傳統的摩爾定律二維縮放帶來的好處正在放緩，半導體產業正在轉型採用新的策略來推動功耗、效能、面積、成本和上市時間。隨著 PPACt 策略的推廣應用，整個生態系統的投資正在加速成長。

Fourth, there's an increased focus on ensuring that growth is sustainable and responsible as the industry scales and advancing energy-efficient computing is critical.

第四，隨著產業規模的擴大，越來越重視確保成長的可持續性和負責任性，推動節能運算至關重要。

And fifth, there's a business model inflection as companies migrate away from products and transactions to outcomes and deeper collaborations focused on speed and time to market. These 5 factors add up to strong and strengthening demand for wafer fab equipment and advanced services that we believe is sustainable well beyond 2021.

第五，商業模式正在轉變，公司從產品和交易轉向以速度和上市時間為重點的成果和更深入的合作。我們認為，這 5 個因素共同促成了對晶圓製造設備和先進服務的強勁且不斷增強的需求，這種需求在 2021 年以後仍將持續下去。

For the first time, customers are providing capital spending guidance for multiple years into the future, which is a new leading indicator for demand sustainability. In 2021, we expect foundry/logic to be the fastest-growing wafer fab equipment market with strong investments in both leading edge and specialty devices. DRAM is the next fastest-growing market, with all major DRAM manufacturers investing in new technology and capacity. Finally, we see NAND growing at a more modest rate this year on the back of about 30% growth in calendar 2020.

客戶首次提供了未來多年資本支出指導，這是衡量需求永續性的一個新領先指標。2021年，我們預期晶圓代工/邏輯元件將成為晶圓製造設備市場成長最快的領域，對尖端元件和專用元件的投資力道都將很大。DRAM是成長速度第二快的市場，所有主要的DRAM製造商都在投資新技術和產能。最後，我們看到，在 2020 年日曆年增長約 30% 的基礎上，今年 NAND 的成長速度將較為溫和。

More importantly, Applied is outperforming the overall market. Recent VLSI market data confirmed that our semi-equipment business grew 23% in 2020 versus market growth of less than 19%. We outperformed even though the device mix would not typically be considered favorable for Applied.

更重要的是，Applied 的表現優於整體市場。最近的 VLSI 市場數據顯示，我們的半自動設備業務在 2020 年成長了 23%，而市場成長率不到 19%。儘管這種裝置組合通常不被認為是應用材料所擅長的，但我們仍然取得了優異的成績。

There are several reasons why I'm confident 2021 will be another strong year of outperformance. To start with, our leadership areas are in the fastest-growing parts of the market. We expect CMP epithermal implant to all grow more than 50% this year.

我相信2021年會是另一個業績表現優異的年份，原因有很多。首先，我們的領先領域位於市場成長最快的部分。我們預計今年CMP外延熱注入技術將全面成長50%以上。

Next, we're very well positioned to serve the fast-growing specialty markets. We anticipated this market growth several years ago and formed a new group inside the company called ICAPS to focus on IoT, communications, automotive, power and sensor applications. In addition, we have strong traction with new products, especially in areas where we have space to grow share. In 2020, we gained 240 basis points of market share in conductor etch and 220 basis points in CVD, thanks to the momentum we have in patterning applications for DRAM and foundry/logic. This year, our etch and CVD businesses combined will generate more than $7.5 billion of revenue.

其次，我們已做好充分準備，服務快速成長的專業市場。幾年前我們就預見了這一市場成長，並在公司內部成立了一個名為 ICAPS 的新團隊，專注於物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器應用。此外，我們的新產品也取得了強勁的市場反響，尤其是在我們還有成長空間的領域。2020 年，憑藉我們在 DRAM 和代工/邏輯圖形化應用領域的發展勢頭，我們在導體蝕刻領域獲得了 240 個基點的市場份額，在 CVD 領域獲得了 220 個基點的市場份額。今年，我們的蝕刻和 CVD 業務合計將創造超過 75 億美元的收入。

In process diagnostics and control, we expect to grow around 50% in 2021 and generate more than $900 million of revenue from our e-beam products. Extending our leadership in e-beam has been a major focus as it is a highly strategic capability that accelerates adoption of our differentiated semi products in integrated material solutions as well as being a key component of our actionable insight accelerator.

在製程診斷和控制領域，我們預計 2021 年將成長約 50%，並從我們的電子束產品中創造超過 9 億美元的收入。擴大我們在電子束領域的領先地位一直是我們的重點，因為這是一項高度策略性的能力，可以加速我們在整合材料解決方案中採用我們差異化的半成品，同時也是我們可操作洞察加速器的關鍵組成部分。

Finally, we're seeing increasing adoption of our integrated solutions where we're bringing together unique combinations of technologies and capabilities. In 2021, we expect to generate more than $400 million of revenue from our first Integrated Material Solutions. In addition, revenues from our advanced packaging product portfolio are on track to exceed $800 million, almost doubling since 2019.

最後，我們看到越來越多的人採用我們的整合解決方案，這些解決方案將獨特的技術和能力組合在一起。2021年，我們預計首個整合材料解決方案將創造超過4億美元的收入。此外，我們先進包裝產品組合的收入預計將超過 8 億美元，比 2019 年幾乎翻了一番。

Looking beyond the strength in our business today, we believe we're in a great position to deliver sustainable outperformance over multiple years. As the industry roadmap transitions from traditional 2D Moore's Law scaling to the new PPACt playbook, materials engineering becomes critically enabling. This is because significant PPACt innovations in transistor and interconnect, structures and materials are taking place and these innovations are enabled by Applied's leadership technologies. We'll cover this topic in more detail at our upcoming logic masterclass.

撇開我們目前業務的優勢不談，我們相信我們有能力在未來幾年內實現可持續的優異業績。隨著產業路線圖從傳統的二維摩爾定律擴展過渡到新的 PPACt 策略，材料工程變得至關重要。這是因為晶體管和互連、結構和材料方面正在發生重大的 PPACt 創新，而這些創新是由 Applied 的領先技術所推動的。我們將在即將舉辦的邏輯大師班上更詳細地講解這個主題。

As we described at our investor meeting, to serve our customers' evolving needs and maximize our growth opportunities, we've built a comprehensive strategy to position Applied as the PPACt enablement company, shift more of our business to subscription revenue and optimize our investments in synergistic adjacent markets to drive profitable growth and higher free cash flows.

正如我們在投資者會議上所描述的那樣，為了滿足客戶不斷變化的需求並最大限度地抓住增長機會，我們制定了一項全面的戰略，將 Applied 定位為 PPACt 賦能公司，將更多業務轉向訂閱收入，並優化我們在協同鄰近市場的投資，以推動盈利增長和更高的自由現金流。

Our PPACt enablement strategy has 3 differentiated pillars. First, Applied has the broadest and most enabling portfolio of technologies, spanning materials creation, modification, removal and analysis. At our recent memory masterclass, we talked about how we're taking unique Applied technologies that were originally developed for logic, including Black Diamond low K materials and high K metal gate transistors into the DRAM market, opening up new billion-dollar opportunities.

我們的 PPACt 賦能策略有 3 個不同的支柱。首先，Applied 擁有最廣泛、最具賦能性的技術組合，涵蓋材料的創造、改質、去除和分析。在我們最近的記憶體大師班上，我們討論瞭如何將最初為邏輯電路開發的獨特應用技術（包括黑鑽石低K材料和高K金屬閘極電晶體）引入DRAM市場，從而開闢新的數十億美元的機會。

Second, we can combine our technology portfolio in unique and highly enabling ways that no one else can do. A great example is our Draco hard mask material for capacitor scaling in DRAM. Draco has been co-optimized to work with Applied's etch system in a process development that we accelerated with our e-beam technology. Today, we offer a spectrum of solutions from co-optimization of processes and tools like Draco all the way to fully integrated material solutions that combine multiple processes and customized metrology and sensors within a single platform.

其次，我們可以以其他任何人都無法做到的獨特且極具賦能的方式來組合我們的技術組合。一個很好的例子是我們用於 DRAM 電容器尺寸縮小的 Draco 硬掩模材料。Draco 經過協同優化，可與 Applied 的蝕刻系統配合使用，我們利用電子束技術加速了製程開發。如今，我們提供一系列解決方案，從 Draco 等流程和工具的協同優化，到將多個流程和客製化計量及感測器結合在一個平台上的完全整合材料解決方案。

The third pillar is time-to-market acceleration. We've developed a proprietary suite of solutions to accelerate every stage of the product life cycle, from R&D to technology transfer and high-volume manufacturing. We call this the Actionable Inside Accelerator, or AIx platform, and it brings together process tools, sensors, metrology and analytics and machine learning capabilities.

第三大支柱是加快產品上市速度。我們開發了一套專有的解決方案，以加速產品生命週期的每個階段，從研發到技術轉移和大規模生產。我們稱之為「可操作內部加速器」（AIx平台），它將流程工具、感測器、計量和分析以及機器學習功能整合在一起。

There is tremendous pull from customers, and we already have AIx engagements with all major memory manufacturers. One example of how we're applying machine learning in real-world applications is extract AI that allows us to combine the most powerful attributes of optical and e-beam inspection and provide a solution that's many times faster than traditional approaches. In simple terms, optical inspection is fast and can find critical defects, while e-beam is slower but has higher resolution to accurately classify those defects. So we use our e-beam system to train the extract AI engine for defect and noise classification.

客戶需求龐大，我們已經與所有主要記憶體製造商開展了 AIx 合作。我們在現實世界應用中應用機器學習的一個例子是提取人工智慧，它使我們能夠結合光學和電子束檢測最強大的屬性，並提供比傳統方法快很多倍的解決方案。簡單來說，光學檢測速度快，可以發現關鍵缺陷，而電子束檢測速度較慢，但解析度更高，可以準確地對這些缺陷進行分類。因此，我們使用電子束系統來訓練提取 AI 引擎，用於缺陷和噪音分類。

As Applied's e-beam technology has best-in-class resolution and imaging, we get the most accurate classification to train our AI models. We then use inferencing to turn an unclassified map of millions of potential defects into an actionable map of thousands of yield-impacting defects.

由於 Applied 的電子束技術擁有同類最佳的解析度和成像效果，我們可以獲得最準確的分類結果來訓練我們的 AI 模型。然後，我們利用推理將數百萬個潛在缺陷的未分類地圖轉換為數千個影響良率的缺陷的可操作地圖。

Before I hand the call over to Dan, let me quickly summarize. We see strong and sustainable demand in our semiconductor business, underpinned by a wide range of macro and technology drivers. We believe that we're in a great position to outperform our markets again this year, thanks to our broad exposure to the major industry inflections, our strong portfolio of differentiated unit process products and accelerating adoption of our Integrated Material Solutions and advanced packaging products.

在把電話交給丹之前，讓我快速總結一下。我們看到半導體業務的需求強勁且可持續，這得益於一系列宏觀和技術驅動因素。我們相信，憑藉我們對主要產業轉折點的廣泛了解、我們強大的差異化單元製程產品組合以及我們的整合材料解決方案和先進包裝產品的加速普及，我們今年將再次在市場中取得優異成績。

We feel very positive about the longer-term secular trends that are driving semiconductor and wafer fab equipment structurally higher. And we're confident that we have the right strategy to accelerate PPACt and grow significantly faster than our markets. Dan, over to you.

我們對推動半導體和晶圓製造設備結構性上漲的長期趨勢感到非常樂觀。我們有信心，我們擁有正確的策略來加速 PPACt 的發展，並實現比市場更快的成長。丹，該你了。

Thanks, Gary. Today, I'll begin by summarizing Applied's performance in Q2. Then I'll recap the latest third-party data on the semiconductor equipment and services markets. I'll build on Gary's comments about the equipment demand environment. And then I'll give you an update on our plans to grow our subscription business and generate incremental free cash flow in synergistic adjacent markets. I'll finish with our guidance for Q3.

謝謝你，加里。今天，我將首先總結應用材料公司第二季的業績。接下來，我將概述半導體設備和服務市場的最新第三方數據。我將補充 Gary 關於設備需求環境的評論。然後，我將向大家報告我們發展訂閱業務以及在協同效應相關的鄰近市場中產生增量自由現金流的計劃。最後，我將介紹我們對第三季的預期。

Beginning with our Q2 performance. Applied delivered record revenue that was up 41% year-over-year and near the top of our guidance range. Our teams executed well, delivering strong gross margins in a challenging operational environment, and this led to record non-GAAP earnings that exceeded our guidance range. All 3 of our operating segments exceeded the revenue guidance, and we continue to expect each to post higher revenue in the second half of our fiscal year.

首先來看我們第二季的業績。Applied 實現了創紀錄的營收，年增 41%，接近我們預期範圍的上限。我們的團隊表現出色，在充滿挑戰的營運環境中實現了強勁的毛利率，從而取得了創紀錄的非GAAP收益，超過了我們的預期範圍。我們所有三個營運部門的收入都超過了預期，我們繼續預期每個部門在下半年的財政年度收入都會更高。

The semiconductor systems team also delivered the highest non-GAAP operating margins in nearly 14 years while AGS delivered the highest margins in nearly 15 years. These accomplishments helped us generate record non-GAAP operating profit and increased non-GAAP operating margin by 700 basis points year-over-year. We increased operating cash flow by 87% year-over-year, delivering over $1 billion for the third quarter in a row. We're pleased that Moody's recently upgraded Applied's credit rating by a notch to a2.

半導體系統團隊也實現了近 14 年來最高的非 GAAP 營業利潤率，而 AGS 則實現了近 15 年來最高的利潤率。這些成就幫助我們實現了創紀錄的非GAAP營業利潤，並且非GAAP營業利益率比去年同期成長了700個基點。我們的經營現金流年增 87%，連續第三個季度超過 10 億美元。我們很高興穆迪最近將Applied的信用評等上調一級至a2。

We also resumed the buyback program in Q2, deploying $750 million in the limited window available to us, and we expect to be more active in the current quarter. Also during the quarter, the Board approved a new $7.5 billion stock buyback authorization, along with a 9% dividend increase. And we announced our commitment to return 80% to 100% of free cash flow to shareholders.

我們還在第二季度恢復了股票回購計劃，在有限的時間內投入了 7.5 億美元，我們預計本季將更加積極地開展這項計劃。本季度，董事會還批准了一項新的 75 億美元股票回購授權，以及 9% 的股息成長。我們宣布承諾將 80% 至 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

Next, since our last earnings call, VLSI Research published its market sizing report for calendar 2020, which is important for 2 reasons: one, it distinguishes front end equipment spending from back end assembly and test; two, it includes company services and spares revenue in addition to equipment revenue, allowing observers to distinguish between recurring revenue and WFE.

接下來，自從我們上次財報電話會議以來，VLSI Research 發布了 2020 年日曆年的市場規模報告，這很重要，原因有二：一是它將前端設備支出與後端組裝和測試區分開來；二是除了設備收入外，它還包括公司服務和備件收入，使觀察者能夠區分經常性收入和 WFE。

Applied Materials was #1 in both equipment and services for 2020. The equipment market was $61.2 billion, up nearly 19% year-on-year. We significantly outgrew the market, gaining 60 basis points of industry market share with gains in deposition, removal and process control. As Gary described, major inflections are increasing the demand for materials engineering, and we're on track to significantly outperform once again in 2021.

應用材料公司在2020年的設備和服務領域均排名第一。設備市場規模為 612 億美元，較去年同期成長近 19%。我們在沉積、去除和製程控制方面取得了顯著進步，獲得了 60 個基點的行業市場份額，遠遠超過了市場平均值。正如 Gary 所描述的那樣，重大轉折點正在增加對材料工程的需求，我們有望在 2021 年再次取得顯著的優異成績。

Next, I'll discuss the demand environment. Last quarter, we indicated the equipment market would be in the low $70 billion in 2021, which was above the consensus at the time. Demand has strengthened further, and we now expect equipment spending to be in the high $70 billion for the year. At the investor meeting, I showed you a chart with the rolling 2-year sum of equipment spending for each period since 2012 plus 2013, each successive 2-year period has been higher. And I now believe that spending in 2021 plus 2022 will be greater than $160 billion.

接下來，我將討論需求環境。上個季度，我們預測 2021 年設備市場規模將在 700 億美元左右，高於當時的普遍預期。需求進一步增強，我們現在預計今年的設備支出將達到 700 億美元以上。在投資者會議上，我向你們展示了一張圖表，圖表顯示了自 2012 年到 2013 年每個時期的滾動兩年設備支出總額，每個連續的兩年期間都更高。我現在認為，2021年和2022年的支出將超過1600億美元。

Our demand thesis for the past several years is that data generation is growing exponentially while 2D scaling is slowing, which means more process equipment will be needed. Over the long history of the industry, equipment capital intensity has been close to 12% on average. But because of the higher technical complexity and the slowing of 2D scaling, capital intensity is closer to 14% today.

過去幾年，我們的需求論點是資料生成呈指數級增長，而二維擴展速度正在放緩，這意味著需要更多的處理設備。從該行業的漫長歷史來看，設備資本密集度平均接近 12%。但由於技術複雜度較高以及二維規模擴張速度放緩，如今資本密集度接近 14%。

Multiple industry forecasts call for the semiconductor industry revenue to reach $1 trillion by 2030. If capital intensity stays flat from here, then WFE spending could be over $140 billion in the same time frame. I realize there are questions about whether the unprecedented demand we are seeing today is secular or cyclical. When I listen to what our customers say, I hear a firm belief that the data economy is real and driving secular growth well into the future.

多項產業預測顯示，到 2030 年，半導體產業的收入將達到 1 兆美元。如果資本密集度保持不變，那麼在同一時期內，WFE支出可能會超過1,400億美元。我意識到，對於我們今天看到的這種前所未有的需求是長期性的還是週期性的，存在一些疑問。當我傾聽客戶的意見時，我感受到他們堅信數據經濟是真實存在的，並將在未來很長一段時間內推動經濟的長期成長。

This perspective is being reinforced by plans for substantial multiyear capital investments, which are needed to support demand and fuel profitable growth. Against this backdrop, we've never felt better about our opportunity to enable our customers, generate free cash flow and return cash to shareholders.

這一觀點得到了多年期巨額資本投資計畫的強化，這些投資對於支持需求和推動獲利成長至關重要。在此背景下，我們從未像現在這樣對我們的客戶、自由現金流以及向股東返還現金的機會充滿信心。

Next, as we discussed at the investor meeting, we're also focused on growing beyond equipment sales. The more we deliver solutions and outcomes for our customers, the more we can increase our subscription revenues, which grow and generate free cash flow every year. The report I mentioned earlier shows that over 90% of Applied's reported services business is composed of recurring services and parts revenue, which is the highest amongst our peers. We generated $3.7 billion of this true services revenue in 2020, with 60% in long-term agreements and renewal rates of around 90%.

其次，正如我們在投資者會議上討論的那樣，我們也致力於在設備銷售之外實現成長。我們為客戶提供的解決方案和成果越多，我們的訂閱收入就越高，訂閱收入每年都會成長並產生自由現金流。我之前提到的報告顯示，Applied 公司報告的服務業務中，超過 90% 由經常性服務和零件收入構成，這一比例在同業中最高。2020 年，我們創造了 37 億美元的真正服務收入，其中 60% 是長期協議，續約率約為 90%。

In Q2, the trend towards long-term subscriptions was even stronger. Nearly 70% of our services and parts bookings were subscriptions and 50% had terms of at least 3 years. Our strategy in AGS and as a company is to combine our technologies in unique ways to create higher value solutions and outcomes for our customers, which are best delivered under the subscription model.

第二季度，長期訂閱的趨勢更加強勁。我們近 70% 的服務和零件預訂都是訂閱制，其中 50% 的訂閱期限至少為 3 年。AGS 和我們公司的策略是以獨特的方式結合我們的技術，為客戶創造更高價值的解決方案和成果，而訂閱模式是實現這些解決方案和成果的最佳途徑。

We also discussed our strategy to redeploy our technology in synergistic adjacent markets where modest investments can generate attractive supplemental free cash flow. Today, the largest example of this strategy is our display business, where our CVD, PVD and e-beam technologies have been adapted to glass substrates. Over the past couple of years, we've strengthened our products for the next wave of OLED investments targeting foldable smartphones, notebooks, tablets and TVs.

我們還討論了我們的策略，即在具有協同效應的鄰近市場重新部署我們的技術，在這些市場中，適度的投資可以產生可觀的額外自由現金流。如今，這項策略的最大例證就是我們的顯示器業務，我們已將 CVD、PVD 和電子束技術應用於玻璃基板。在過去的幾年裡，我們加強了產品研發，以迎接下一波針對可折疊智慧型手機、筆記型電腦、平板電腦和電視的 OLED 投資浪潮。

With these investments completed, our focus is on increasing free cash flow. We're committed to increasing non-GAAP operating margins from the high teens level today to over 20% in the coming quarters and then between 25% and 30% over the target model horizon.

這些投資完成後，我們的重點是增加自由現金流。我們致力於將非GAAP營業利潤率從目前的十幾個百分點提高到未來幾季的20%以上，然後在目標模式週期內達到25%至30%之間。

Now I'll share our Q3 business outlook. We expect to increase company revenue to approximately $5.92 billion, plus or minus $200 million. The midpoint would be up about 35% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP EPS to be about $1.76, plus or minus $0.06 or up about 66% year-over-year. Within this outlook, we project semiconductor systems revenue of $4.25 billion, up around 46% year-over-year. And AGS revenue of about $1.23 billion, up around 19% year-over-year. We expect display revenue of around $415 million.

現在我將分享我們第三季的業務展望。我們預計公司營收將增至約 59.2 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元。中間值將比上年同期上漲約 35%。我們預期非GAAP每股收益約1.76美元，上下浮動0.06美元，年增約66%。在此展望中，我們預計半導體系統營收將達到 42.5 億美元，年增約 46%。AGS 營收約 12.3 億美元，較去年同期成長約 19%。我們預計顯示器收入約 4.15 億美元。

Applied's non-GAAP gross margin should be roughly flat sequentially at 47.7% or up around 270 basis points year-over-year. We plan to increase non-GAAP OpEx to $930 million. And as a percent of revenue, non-GAAP OpEx should decline by 290 basis points, with nearly 70% of the spending earmarked for R&D. Our guidance assumes a non-GAAP tax rate of around 12%.

Applied 的非 GAAP 毛利率應該與上一季基本持平，為 47.7%，或年增約 270 個基點。我們計劃將非GAAP營運支出增加到9.3億美元。佔收入百分比而言，非 GAAP 營運支出應下降 290 個基點，其中近 70% 的支出將用於研發。我們的指導意見假設非GAAP稅率約為12%。

In summary, I'm pleased that Applied delivered another record quarter of performance in Q2 with strong year-over-year growth in revenue and profitability. And I'd like to join Gary in thanking our employees and supply chain partners for supporting our customers.

總而言之，我很高興Applied在第二季再次取得了創紀錄的業績，營收和獲利能力都實現了強勁的年成長。我謹代表 Gary 向我們的員工和供應鏈夥伴表示感謝，感謝他們對我們客戶的支持。

Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

麥克，現在開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan. Now to help us reach as many people as we can, please ask just one question on today's call. If you have a second question, please just re-queue, and we'll do our best to come back to you later in the session. Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝你，丹。為了幫助我們盡可能地接觸到大家，請在今天的電話會議上只提一個問題。如果您還有第二個問題，請重新排隊，我們將在稍後的會議中盡力解答。操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) First question is from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

（操作說明）第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Congrats on the solid results. Gary, nice to see the uptick in your forecast for WFE for the year. I'm kind of curious, when you look at your ability to supply customers -- or the ecosystem's ability to supply customers, relative to the high $70 billion WFE, is there potential for upside this year? Or are you already starting to see kind of the backlog for next year fill in, just given some of the constraints and lead times on tools?

恭喜取得如此優異的成績。Gary，很高興看到你對今年WFE的預測有所上調。我很好奇，當你審視你向客戶供貨的能力——或者說整個生態系統向客戶供貨的能力，相對於高達 700 億美元的 WFE 而言，今年是否有上漲的潛力？或者，考慮到一些限制和工具的交付週期，您是否已經開始看到明年的積壓訂單逐漸被填滿？

Thanks, John. So this is Dan. I'll jump in on this one. So what we're seeing from our own business, we talked about it in the prepared comments. We see a market that's up strong from a year-over-year standpoint, high 70s probably puts us up high 20%, 27%, 28%, 29% versus where we were last year. And that's off of a baseline of $61.2 billion.

謝謝你，約翰。這位是丹。我也來參與一下。所以，我們從自身業務中看到的情況，我們在準備好的評論中已經談到了。從年比來看，我們看到市場強勁上漲，70 多美元的價格可能比去年同期上漲 20%、27%、28% 或 29%。而這還是在 612 億美元的基準線之上。

What I would say is we're planning for our business to be up second half over first half. And we're also planning for our business to be up as we look into 2022. And as I look at it by reporting segment, I would say all 3 of our segments are up half over half. And then all 3 of our segments are up as we look into 2022.

我想說的是，我們預計下半年的業務量將超過上半年。展望 2022 年，我們也計劃讓業務有所成長。從各個業務板塊來看，我認為我們三個業務板塊的業績都實現了半數以上的成長。展望 2022 年，我們的三個業務板塊都已上線。

So I can't comment for everybody. What I would say is, is we've been very aggressive in terms of managing this upward gradient of the industry. We started several quarters ago, 3, 4 quarters ago. You can see an uptick from an investment standpoint to make sure that we've got the infrastructure and capacity and capability.

所以我無法代表所有人發表評論。我想說的是，我們在應對行業向上發展趨勢方面一直非常積極。我們幾個季度前就開始了，大概三、四個季度前吧。從投資角度來看，我們可以看到投資增加，以確保我們擁有必要的基礎設施、產能和能力。

And that's not only investments from our physical infrastructure, but also working with our supply partners to make sure that we can fully satisfy all the demand that we see from our customers based on the great innovation that we're delivering to market. So we feel good about how we're positioned to outperform in this environment. And as we look forward into the back half of the year in 2022, we're planning for our business to be up.

這不僅包括對實體基礎設施的投資，還包括與我們的供應夥伴合作，以確保我們能夠充分滿足客戶基於我們向市場推出的偉大創新而產生的所有需求。因此，我們對自身在這種環境下取得優異表現的定位感到滿意。展望 2022 年下半年，我們計劃讓業務有所成長。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse。

Just to clarify, I want to make sure that you're talking about second half calendar '21 versus first half calendar '21 in terms of up half-on-half. And then for my main question, as I think about your operating margin for silicon at 39.1%, this was your best print since -- I had to look back since, I think, June 2007.

為了澄清一下，我想確認一下，您指的是 2021 年下半年與 2021 年上半年的同比變化。至於我的主要問題，考慮到你們矽晶片的營業利潤率達到了 39.1%，這是你們自——我得回顧一下，我想是從 2007 年 6 月以來——取得的最佳成績。

And so I guess, as we think about WFE moving higher from here into '22 and likely beyond, how should we think about the trajectory there? And how important was mix in hitting the numbers that you put up in April? And how -- again, how should we think about it going forward?

所以我想，當我們考慮 WFE 從現在到 2022 年甚至更遠的時間裡不斷攀升時，我們該如何看待它的發展軌跡？混合配比在你們四月所取得的成績中有多重要？那麼，我們接下來該如何看待這個問題呢？

Yes. Thanks, C.J. Let me jump in on this one again, and you get a lot embedded in there, and let me try to unpack it. And if I miss something, please follow-up and let me know what else I can shed some color on.

是的。謝謝，C.J.。讓我再插一句，這裡麵包含了很多訊息，讓我試著解讀一下。如果我遺漏了什麼，請告訴我，還有哪些方面我可以補充說明。

So the first part of the question, second half over first half. That's both fiscal year and calendar year. And again, we're planning on being up as we look into 2022. So we've got a market that's showing signs of strength. The first half of the calendar year, when you take a look at our actual results plus our guide, our systems business is up 50% year-over-year. So we feel good about how we're positioned against this opportunity to outperform, and second half over first half being up both on a fiscal and calendar year basis.

所以問題的第一部分，後半部比前半部好。這既指財政年度，也指日曆年度。我們再次計劃在 2022 年繼續保持成長勢頭。所以我們看到市場呈現強勁的跡象。從日曆年的上半年來看，我們的實際業績加上我們的指導方針，我們的系統業務年增了 50%。因此，我們對自身在把握此次機會、超越市場表現方面所處的位置感到滿意，並且無論從財政年度還是日曆年度來看，下半年的業績都將比上半年有所增長。

When I look at our silicon business and the performance of it, what I would say is, as a company, gross margin for our company is up 310 basis points year-over-year. The company has got a lot of work on driving productivity gains, operating discipline, efficiency into the core of our operations. We're adopting digital capabilities inside the 4 walls of our company to make sure we are far more agile as a company to respond to upward and downward gradients.

當我審視我們的矽業務及其表現時，我想說的是，作為一家公司，我們公司的毛利率年增了 310 個基點。公司在提高生產力、規範營運、提升效率等方面還有很多工作要做，這些都將成為我們營運的核心。我們正在公司內部採用數位化能力，以確保公司能夠更靈活地應對各種變化。

And there's more work to do. We'll never be satisfied with where we are. But we've got a whole host of initiatives at work to help this company become more efficient over time. And you see that profiling into the results of the company.

還有更多工作要做。我們永遠不會對現狀感到滿意。但我們正在推行一系列舉措，以幫助這家公司隨著時間的推移提高效率。然後，你會發現這種分析結果反映在公司的績效上。

As an overall company, you see our operating margin up 700 basis points year-over-year. From a semi systems standpoint, the margins will always be influenced to a certain extent by customer mix, product mix, factory loadings. But I think you can see on both an absolute and relative basis, this is a company that's performing very, very strong right now. And I would expect us to continue a trajectory of strong performance as I go forward.

從公司整體來看，我們的營業利潤率年增了 700 個基點。從半導體系統的角度來看，利潤率總是會在一定程度上受到客戶組合、產品組合、工廠負載的影響。但我認為，無論從絕對值或相對值來看，這家公司目前的表現都非常非常強勁。我期望我們能夠繼續保持強勁的業績勢頭。

And so I guess the last thing I would say, it all starts with innovation. Your ability to drive economic value creation for your investors starts with innovation. We've got the industry's broadest portfolio of industry-leading technologies. And at our investor meeting, we talked about combining them in unique ways to solve really high-value problems for our customers in a way that's incredibly valuable to their road maps, delivery of those road maps from a time perspective that they can make their customers successful. So we'll continue to drive the industry's best technology. We'll drive efficiency and operating discipline while we do that, and we think we've got an opportunity to create significant value over time for our investors.

所以，我最後想說的是，一切都始於創新。創新是為投資者創造經濟價值的關鍵。我們擁有業界最廣泛的業界領先技術組合。在我們的投資者會議上，我們討論瞭如何以獨特的方式將它們結合起來，為我們的客戶解決真正高價值的問題，這對於他們的發展路線圖以及從時間角度交付這些路線圖來說都極其有價值，從而使他們的客戶能夠取得成功。因此，我們將繼續推動業界最先進技術的發展。我們將在此過程中提高效率和規範運營，我們認為我們有機會隨著時間的推移為投資者創造巨大的價值。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

I had a question on the DRAM business within the Semiconductor Systems. So it's the only business of yours that hasn't really inflected. Both foundry and flash were up pretty decently sequentially year-over-year. DRAM was kind of down both sequentially year-over-year. And yet you're still looking for it to grow pretty materially through the year.

我有一個關於半導體系統部門內DRAM業務的問題。所以這是你唯一一項沒有真正受到影響的業務。晶圓代工和快閃記憶體業務的環比年成長都相當不錯。DRAM 的銷量年比和季比均有所下降。然而，你仍然希望它在這一年中能有相當大的成長。

So I guess -- and I know -- we know supply in that market is actually very tight. So I guess, can you talk a little bit about the dynamics you're seeing in DRAM? And maybe talk a little bit about the contribution of DRAM to the guide next quarter. Is that primarily what's driving? I mean has that sort of ramped more materially in some of the others into the second half? Or are we still waiting for it?

所以我想——而且我知道——我們知道那個市場的供應實際上非常緊張。所以我想，您能談談您在DRAM領域觀察到的動態變化嗎？或許可以稍微談談DRAM對下個季度指南的貢獻。這是主要驅動因素嗎？我的意思是，在其他一些電影中，下半場是否出現了更明顯的這種趨勢？還是我們仍在等待？

I guess the best way to start the conversation, let's talk about 2020 and then use that as a jumping off point for what we saw in calendar Q1, our fiscal Q2, and then what we expect for the rest of the year.

我想最好的開場白方式是，我們先來談談 2020 年，然後以此為起點，討論一下我們在日曆年第一季度、財政年度第二季度所看到的情況，以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期。

So in 2020, we talked about an overall WFE market that was up high teens. I would say the DRAM market was pretty much in line with that, maybe a little better than that. Against that opportunity, our DRAM business was up over 27%, almost 28% last year. And significantly outperformed others in the industry that were up a few percent and down a few percent. So we had a really strong showing in 2020.

所以在 2020 年，我們談到了整體 WFE 市場實現了接近 10% 的成長。我認為DRAM市場的情況基本上符合預期，甚至可能略好。抓住這一機遇，我們的 DRAM 業務去年成長超過 27%，接近 28%。而且，其表現顯著優於業界其他漲跌幅均在幾個百分點以內的公司。所以我們2020年的表現非常出色。

And if you recall 3 months ago on last quarter's call, we had signaled that the profile around the DRAM market, we view it as significantly back half loaded. So we expect off of calendar Q1, our fiscal Q2, momentum in that business to significantly pick up as our customers add bit supply to be more in line with bit demand.

如果你還記得三個月前上季的電話會議，我們當時就表示，我們認為DRAM市場的整體格局明顯是後半段集中。因此，我們預計，根據日曆年第一季（即我們的財政年度第二季），隨著客戶增加比特供應以更好地滿足比特需求，該業務的成長勢頭將顯著增強。

And so we see that market playing out roughly in line with our expectations. And how calendar Q1 played out, I would say it's pretty much in line with how we viewed the market 3 months ago, probably 6 months ago, and it's playing out as expected. We see DRAM as a back half loaded market this year.

因此，我們看到市場的發展大致符合我們的預期。就日曆年第一季的實際情況而言，我認為它與我們3個月前，甚至可能6個月前對市場的看法基本一致，而且目前的發展也符合預期。我們認為今年DRAM市場將在下半年迎來爆炸性成長。

Yes, Stacy, maybe I can add. This is Gary. Relative to the major inflections in DRAM, certainly high-speed DRAM, they're going to logic-like structures in the periphery where Applied has leadership. I think we talked about that in our memory masterclass, a couple of billion-dollar opportunity as those inflections are being adopted.

是的，史泰西，或許我可以補充一下。這是加里。相對於 DRAM 的主要轉折點，尤其是高速 DRAM，它們正在向外圍的邏輯類結構發展，而 Applied 在該領域處於領先地位。我想我們在記憶大師班上討論過這個問題，隨著這些記憶變化被採用，這其中蘊藏著數十億美元的商機。

Capacitor scaling is another one, where Applied has real strength, new patterning applications. So as Dan said, we had really great performance last year. And as our customers are moving to these new structures, DRAM structures, we anticipate that we'll continue to outperform.

電容器尺寸縮小是另一個應用技術應用真正的強項，新的圖案化應用。正如丹所說，我們去年的表現非常出色。隨著我們的客戶轉向這些新的架構（DRAM架構），我們預期我們將繼續保持優異的業績。

Our next question is from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。

I wanted to revisit this cyclical versus secular aspect that I think, Gary, you or Dan mentioned. Is WFE elevated right now because of capacity shortages, which would be more of a cyclical driver? Or is it elevated more because of secular reasons, which would be rising complexity, et cetera? I wanted to get your perspective on that because when we ask the semiconductor companies, they say the shortages are perhaps not as much on the foundry side, they are more on the back end. So I just wanted to get your perspective that what we are seeing right now, is it a cyclical thing? Or is it more of a secular aspect?

我想重新探討週期性與世俗性這一方面，我想 Gary、你或 Dan 都提到過。目前WFE（木材加工效率）升高是否是因為產能短缺，而產能短缺更多的是一種週期性驅動因素？或者，它之所以被抬高，更多是由於世俗原因，例如日益複雜的社會環境等等？我想聽聽你的看法，因為當我們詢問半導體公司時，他們說短缺問題可能不在於代工廠，而在於後端。所以我想聽聽你的看法，我們現在看到的現像是否是一種週期性現象？或者，這比較屬於世俗層面？

Yes. Thanks, Vivek. Appreciate the question. Here's our point of view on this: what we see is we are in the very early innings of a multiyear secular growth trend around this industry. And I think we've been talking about it for a couple of years, and now we see it really hitting its stride.

是的。謝謝你，維韋克。感謝您的提問。我們的觀點是：我們看到，我們正處於這個產業多年長期成長趨勢的初期階段。我認為我們已經討論這個問題好幾年了，現在我們看到它真正步入正軌了。

When we think about the general consensus from third-party research, you're at about $1 trillion of semiconductor revenues by 2030. The demand driving that is broad-based. You're seeing a handoff from consumer-oriented devices to something that's far larger and more substantive around this fourth wave of compute, the data economy. By 2025, machines will generate 99% of the data. Humans will generate 1%. You're seeing a decoupling of semiconductor demand for the first time in the industry's history from population and population growth in consumer behavior.

根據第三方研究的普遍共識，到 2030 年，半導體收入將達到約 1 兆美元。推動此趨勢的需求基礎十分廣泛。你會看到，人們正在從面向消費者的設備過渡到圍繞第四次計算浪潮——數據經濟——而規模更大、內容更豐富的領域。到 2025 年，機器將產生 99% 的資料。人類將產生1%。這是半導體產業史上首次出現半導體需求與人口、人口成長在消費者行為上脫鉤的現象。

Content is increasing across devices, servers, autos, handsets. So what we see are strong secular growth drivers, and we're in the early innings of that playing out. And I would say that, that is more of what is driving our end markets today than anything else. And so when I look at that backdrop, combined with things like an upper bias over time of capital intensity, I think the opportunity for our markets going forward is quite attractive. And given what we talked about with the new playbook at our investor meeting, our opportunity to outperform as we drive those key inflections with our customers, our opportunity to outperform against that multiple year secular growth tailwind around this industry, we think, is quite substantial.

內容正越來越多地出現在各種設備、伺服器、汽車和手機上。因此，我們看到的是強勁的長期成長動力，而我們目前還處於這一趨勢的早期階段。而且我認為，這才是當今驅動我們終端市場的更重要的因素。因此，當我審視這一背景，並結合資本密集度隨時間推移而上升的趨勢等因素時，我認為我們市場的未來發展機會相當有吸引力。鑑於我們在投資者會議上討論的新策略，以及我們與客戶共同推動這些關鍵轉折點所帶來的超越機會，以及我們在這個行業多年來的長期增長順風所帶來的超越機會，我們認為，這方面的機會相當可觀。

Yes. Let me just add that certainly today, we hear a lot about supply chain issues from an automotive perspective. But really we're, as Dan said and as we talked about in our investor meeting, we're in the early innings of every industry being transformed, and the fundamental nature of competition being completely different. So semiconductor content is going to be at the foundation of that infrastructure. Certainly, the way we work, the way we learn, the way we shop, transportation, health care. Today, we're talking about automotive. But content is going to increase more, I believe, than what anyone can see today. And it's really about who delivers power, performance and cost faster than others in enabling that infrastructure that is the basis of competition of every single industry.

是的。我還要補充一點，如今我們常聽到從汽車產業角度討論供應鏈問題。但正如丹所說，也正如我們在投資者會議上討論的那樣，我們正處於各個行業變革的初期階段，競爭的本質也完全不同了。因此，半導體含量將成為此基礎設施的基礎。當然，我們的工作方式、學習方式、購物方式、交通出行、醫療保健等等。今天，我們來聊聊汽車產業。但我相信，內容的成長速度將會遠遠超過今天人們所能看到的。實際上，關鍵在於誰能比其他公司更快提供電力、性能和成本，從而建立支撐各行各業競爭的基礎設施。

So -- and then from Applied's standpoint, as we've talked about, classic 2D Moore's Law really ended a few years ago, and the foundation for the chips from the edge, the trillion edge devices to the high-speed computing in the data center is really about new materials, new structures, new ways to connect chips together, new architectures and new ways to shrink. And Applied is just in a really tremendous position when you think about again, the basis of enabling a competitive advantage, time to market on all of that is incredibly important for the entire global economy. And certainly, from a country standpoint, countries are starting to recognize the importance of semiconductors as a foundation for competition.

所以——從應用材料的角度來看，正如我們之前討論過的，經典的二維摩爾定律實際上在幾年前就已經結束了，從邊緣到資料中心的高速計算，晶片的基礎實際上是關於新材料、新結構、新的晶片連接方式、新的架構和新的縮小尺寸的方法。當你再次思考如何才能獲得競爭優勢時，你會發現應用科技確實處於一個非常有利的地位。而對於整個全球經濟而言，所有產品的上市時間都至關重要。當然，從國家層級來看，各國也開始意識到半導體作為競爭基礎的重要性。

So definitely, we see this as a secular change. And I really do believe people don't understand the magnitude of this yet.

所以，我們絕對認為這是一個世俗化的變化。我真的相信人們還沒有意識到這件事的嚴重性。

Our next question is from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Congrats on the strong results. Dan, I wanted to double-click on your NAND business. It was up significantly in the quarter, both sequentially and year-over-year. At the same time, I think it was Gary, you talked about having relatively modest expectations for WFE for calendar 2021.

恭喜你們取得優異成績。丹，我想雙擊你的 NAND 業務。本季環比和年比均大幅成長。同時，我想是 Gary，你談到了對 2021 年 WFE 的預期相對保守。

So I guess the question is, are you guys gaining share? Or is the expectation for NAND to be first half weighted this year? Or is it a little bit of both? And kind of related to that, Dan, you talked about more than $160 billion in WFE for this year and next year combined. Within that sort of context, how are you thinking about NAND?

所以我想問的是，你們的市佔率是否在成長？或者說，預計今年上半年NAND快閃記憶體的權重會更高？或兩者兼而有之？丹，你剛才提到今年和明年全球經濟活動總額將超過 1,600 億美元，這與上述內容有點關聯。在這種背景下，您如何看待 NAND？

Yes. Thanks, Toshiya. Here's our perspective on NAND. If we were to go back 3 months to last quarter, we said that NAND was the one segment that was first half weighted versus second half. In the subsequent 3 months that bring us to today, I would say our perspective on NAND, it strengthened a little bit.

是的。謝謝你，Toshiya。以下是我們對NAND的看法。如果我們回顧三個月前的上個季度，我們說過 NAND 是唯一一個上半年佔比高於下半年的細分市場。在接下來的三個月裡（直到今天），我認為我們對 NAND 的看法有所加強。

But of the 3 segments, we've seen foundry/logic strengthen quite a bit, DRAM strengthen quite a bit and NAND strengthened a little bit. And while foundry/logic and NAND, we view as second half weighted from a segment standpoint, I think there's a question mark on NAND, where we sit today, is it first half weighted or second half weighted. It's too early to tell.

但在這三個領域中，我們看到晶圓代工/邏輯領域成長了不少，DRAM領域成長了不少，NAND領域成長略有增加。雖然從業界角度來看，晶圓代工/邏輯電路和 NAND 快閃記憶體都屬於後半部分，但我認為 NAND 快閃記憶體目前的情況仍有疑問，它究竟是前半部分還是後半部分比較重要。現在下結論還為時過早。

And so we got out of the gate very strong in calendar Q1 on NAND. So we expect the growth rate to moderate quite a bit as we go throughout the year. And from a first half, second half weighting again, I think it's too early to call.

因此，我們在第一季憑藉 NAND 閃訪得了非常強勁的開局。因此，我們預計今年的成長速度將大幅放緩。再從上半年和下半年的權重來看，我認為現在下結論還為時過早。

When I take a step back and I think about the combination of 2021 plus 2022, what I would shape from an expectation standpoint around 2021, foundry/logic is greater than 55%. NAND is less than 45% -- I'm sorry, foundry/logic greater than 55%, memory less than 45%. I think that construct still holds in 2022.

當我退後一步，思考 2021 年和 2022 年的組合時，從對 2021 年的預期角度來看，代工/邏輯的佔比將超過 55%。NAND 佔比低於 45%——抱歉，代工/邏輯佔比高於 55%，記憶體佔比低於 45%。我認為這種觀點在2022年仍然成立。

As we think about a market that's up high 20% range, in the current year, we think about foundry/logic significantly outgrowing the industry average. DRAM being in line plus or minus with the industry average. NAND growing, but significantly below the industry average.

當我們考慮今年成長幅度高達 20% 的市場時，我們認為晶圓代工/邏輯晶片的成長速度將顯著超過產業平均。DRAM性能與行業平均基本持平，略有偏差。NAND快閃記憶體的成長速度很快，但遠低於行業平均。

I think all 3 of those markets are strong levels of spend next year. And we have an upward trajectory on the overall industry. But I think it's too early to shape expectations by device type. Let's let some more time elapse. Let's crystallize the contours of the industry this year and assess how our customers are going to invest to drive even higher returns for their investors in a few quarters. I think we'll have more to say in a few quarters from now.

我認為這三個市場明年的消費水準都會很高。整個產業都呈現上升趨勢。但我認為現在根據設備類型來預測預期還為時過早。讓我們再等一段時間。讓我們明確今年行業的輪廓，並評估我們的客戶將如何投資，以在未來幾季為他們的投資者帶來更高的回報。我想我們過幾個季度後會有更多消息要說。

Our next question is from Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿提夫‧馬利克。

I have a question on display. LCD spending mix has benefited during the pandemic. And at the recent SID display conference supply talked about the future OLED waves and micro LED. Curious if you can update us on the green shoots commentary you made 90 days ago, and what's the outlook for display for next year?

我有一個問題需要解答。疫情期間，液晶顯示器（LCD）的消費結構受益。在最近的SID顯示器大會上，供應商們討論了OLED的未來發展趨勢和微型LED。能否請您更新90天前您發表的「綠色萌芽」的評論，以及明年展覽的前景如何？

Atif, let me take a crack at this. So I think the display industry this year is going to play out very much in line with our expectations. From our business perspective, we're well penetrated in the segments we participate in. We've got a good read on the market. And we see our business in calendar -- or in fiscal 2021 being very similar to fiscal 2020.

阿提夫，讓我來試試。所以我認為今年顯示器產業的走勢基本上將符合我們的預期。從我們的業務角度來看，我們在所參與的細分市場中已經取得了良好的滲透率。我們對市場情勢有相當準確的判斷。我們認為，2021 財年的業務與 2020 財年非常相似。

We talked about the environmental strengthening. We still see older generation capacity coming out of the LCD market. We see increased consumer demand. The combination of that is leading to increased panel pricing. Spot pricing in the panel market is going up and that's leading to increased profitability. So there's goodness there. We continue to see average area size increase. OLED screens are continuing to penetrate 5G handsets. And OLED penetration of handsets in general is on an upward trajectory.

我們討論了環境保護問題。我們仍然看到液晶顯示器市場出現老一代產能下滑。我們看到消費者需求不斷成長。上述因素共同導致了面板價格上漲。面板市場的現貨價格正在上漲，這將帶來更高的獲利能力。所以，這裡面還是有可取之處的。我們看到平均面積持續成長。OLED螢幕正持續滲透到5G手機中。整體而言，OLED 在手機領域的滲透率呈上升趨勢。

The next leg of OLED growth into the IT market and the TV market and foldable phones becoming more widely adopted from a consumer standpoint, all of that is intact. So we see an increase in the levels of investment. As we go into next year, we feel good about that.

OLED 的下一階段成長將進入 IT 市場和電視市場，可折疊手機也將從消費者的角度得到更廣泛的採用，所有這些都將保持不變。因此，我們看到投資水準有所提高。展望明年，我們對此感到樂觀。

The other thing I'd offer here is we talked about an investment profile in our products to deepen our moats around our market position and get our product portfolio ready for the next leg up from an OLED investment standpoint. Exiting the year, the vast majority of those investments will be in the rearview mirror, and you're going to see us start to reposition this business for enhanced cash flow and profitability. We'll get into the low 20s. And then by 2023 and 2024, we'll be consistently operating this business with an operating margin between 25% and 30%.

我在這裡還要補充一點，我們討論了我們產品的投資概況，以加深我們圍繞市場地位的護城河，並從 OLED 投資的角度使我們的產品組合為下一階段做好準備。到年底，這些投資中的絕大多數都將成為過去，你們將會看到我們開始重新定位這項業務，以提高現金流和獲利能力。我們將達到20度出頭。到 2023 年和 2024 年，我們將持續以 25% 到 30% 的營業利潤率經營這項業務。

So we feel good about market development, revenue growth as we look into 2022 and then complementing that with an enhanced level of profitability to drive value for investors.

因此，我們對 2022 年的市場發展和收入成長感到樂觀，並希望透過提高獲利能力來為投資者創造價值。

Our next question is from Krish Sankar with Cowen & Company.

下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I had a kind of a long-term question for Gary. Gary, when you look at the -- some of the technology inflections, like gate all around coming up, it seems like the critical technologies of the horizontal and vertical FEs, for like the removal and conductor etch. Just want to find that from your vantage point, what are the important technologies? And more importantly, can you help quantify the dollar opportunity it means for AMAT?

我有一個由來已久的問題想問加里。Gary，當你觀察一些技術轉折點，例如即將出現的環繞閘極技術，就會發現水平和垂直場效電晶體的關鍵技術，例如移除和導體蝕刻。我想了解一下，從您的角度來看，哪些技術是重要的？更重要的是，您能否幫助量化這對 AMAT 而言意味著多少美元的機會？

Yes. Thanks for the question. So all of our customers are focused, as I said earlier, to deliver lower power, higher performance and better cost ahead of others. And we talked in the investor meeting about the wiring innovations we're driving, improving wiring 50%. And in gate-all-around, that's another very important technology if you look at the overall ecosystem. So that opportunity, I think we've estimated around $1 billion incremental opportunity.

是的。謝謝你的提問。正如我之前所說，我們所有的客戶都致力於在競爭中領先一步，提供更低的功耗、更高的效能和更優惠的價格。我們在投資者會議上談到了我們正在推動的佈線創新，將佈線效率提高了 50%。而從整個生態系統來看，全方位網關技術是另一項非常重要的技術。因此，我認為我們估計這一機會將帶來約 10 億美元的增量機會。

And you think about the key enabling technologies, certainly, epitaxial deposition and selective removal are very important. We're working with every one of the leading customers on gate-all-around technologies. The other thing I would say that's important is our -- and there are a number of other technologies where we have very strong positions, leadership positions. So that will all ramp when gate-all-around goes into high-volume manufacturing.

而說到關鍵使能技術，外延沉積和選擇性去除當然非常重要。我們正在與所有主要客戶合作，共同開發全方位防護技術。我想說的另一點也很重要——我們在許多其他技術領域也擁有非常強大的地位和領導地位。所以，當全方位門控製程投入大規模生產時，所有這些都會加速發展。

But time to market is also important, the T of the PPACt. And our e-beam technology leadership is really fundamental, whether it's in the transistor, the wiring, the Draco and the memory or any of these different innovations, it's really mapping out and fingerprinting those processes because they're so complex with so many different variables. And then being able to tune those recipes and the process knobs as fast as possible.

但上市時間也很重要，也就是 PPAC 中的 T。我們的電子束技術領先地位至關重要，無論是電晶體、線路、Draco 和記憶體，還是其他任何不同的創新，它都真正地繪製並識別了這些流程，因為它們非常複雜，包含許多不同的變數。然後能夠盡快調整這些配方和製程參數。

So gate-all-around certainly is one of those cases where seeing things like residual germanium or seeing in those structures incredibly, incredibly important and having enough of a picture across a chip whether you have isolated or dense structures across the wafer, but that speed in the learning rate is very fundamental. So we have leadership in some of these foundational technologies for gate-all-around. But also our leadership in e-beam is really important for gate-all-around and other key inflections in the industry.

因此，對於環柵技術而言，觀察殘留鍺或觀察這些結構等情況至關重要，並且需要對整個晶片進行充分的了解，無論晶圓上是孤立的結構還是密集的結構，但學習速度的提升是非常根本的。因此，我們在全方位網關的一些基礎技術領域中處於領先地位。但我們在電子束領域的領先地位對於全方位閘極技術以及產業的其他關鍵轉折點也至關重要。

Our next question is from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Great job on the quarterly execution and results. On the mature foundry, logic and specialty manufacturing segments of the market, your ICAPS business. I think you guys had said, lastly, you expected this business to be $3 billion-plus business for the team this year.

季度執行和結果都很棒。在成熟的晶圓代工、邏輯電路和特種製造市場領域，您的 ICAPS 業務。我想你們最後說過，預計今年這項業務將為團隊帶來超過 30 億美元的收入。

But since then, I mean, the supply-demand gap for the analog, microcontroller, power, MEMS guys is actually widening to somewhere around 20% to 40%, in addition to the secular content gains that you guys talked about in auto and industrial. And some of these customers are saying that they can't get 2 deliveries on orders placed today until next year. So do you guys have a revised estimate on your ICAPS business this year? And similar to your overall business, do you guys expect ICAPs to grow in 2022?

但從那時起，我的意思是，類比電路、微控制器、電源、MEMS 廠商的供需缺口實際上已經擴大到 20% 到 40% 左右，此外還有你們在汽車和工業領域提到的長期成長。部分顧客反映，他們今天下的訂單，要等到明年才能收到兩批貨。你們今年的ICAPS業務有新的預估嗎？與你們的整體業務類似，你們預期ICAP在2022年會成長嗎？

Thanks, Harlan. Let me jump in and see if Gary wants to offer additional color after I take a crack at this. So we saw this trend towards more robust spending from a trailing node geometry, a specialty node geometry. Several years ago, we reorganized the organization. We've got leadership driving this group. And the company is performing incredibly well against this opportunity.

謝謝你，哈蘭。讓我插一句，看看在我嘗試之後，加里是否願意提供更多細節。因此，我們看到了這種趨勢，即從尾部節點幾何體和特殊節點幾何體中支出更加穩健。幾年前，我們對組織進行了重組。我們有優秀的領導團隊帶領這個團隊。而該公司在把握這一機會方面表現出色。

We talked about this segment of our business being greater than $3 billion. We don't want to be more specific than that for competitive reasons, but it's much greater than $3 billion. But we'll just leave it at greater than $3 billion for now. Company has got great technology, great leadership positions. And then from a margin structure standpoint, it's accretive to the overall company margin. And so as this business continues to grow for us and we continue to outperform, we think it's going to be value-accretive for our investors.

我們討論過，我們業務的這一部分規模超過 30 億美元。出於競爭原因，我們不想透露更多細節，但肯定遠遠超過 30 億美元。但我們暫且將其設定為超過30億美元。公司擁有強大的技術和卓越的領導團隊。從利潤結構的角度來看，它能提升公司的整體利潤率。因此，隨著這項業務的持續成長和我們業績的持續優異，我們認為這將為我們的投資者帶來價值成長。

And so we feel good about how we're positioned and our ability to drive this market. Like we talked about, we're planning for our business to be up second half over first half. We've got an ability to continue to drive output and delivery of technology to customers. So we feel good about how we're positioned in this market as a key enabler of our customers to be able to satisfy their customers.

因此，我們對自身的市場定位以及引領市場的能力感到滿意。正如我們之前討論過的，我們計劃下半年的業務量將超過上半年。我們有能力持續推動技術產出並交付給客戶。因此，我們對自身在市場上的定位感到滿意，我們成為了客戶滿足其客戶需求的關鍵推動者。

So again, we saw this trend early, and it's going to be a really value-accretive part of our business, a nice piece of our business going forward.

所以，我們很早就看到了這種趨勢，它將成為我們業務中真正增值的一部分，是我們未來業務中非常重要的一部分。

Our next question is from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Patrick Ho。

Congrats on the nice quarter and outlook. Gary, maybe for you in terms of the process control business. You have overall good share -- or actually great share in the e-beam marketplace given the gains you've made with the provision tool. Recently, you've introduced the new optical inspection kind of a hybrid tool with AI capabilities.

恭喜你們本季業績出色，前景良好。Gary，或許對你來說，在過程控制業務方面是這樣。鑑於您在供應工具方面取得的成就，您在電子束市場上的整體份額相當不錯——或者說，份額非常大。最近，你們推出了一種新型的光學檢測混合工具，它具備人工智慧功能。

Can you discuss where the future lies between e-beam versus optical inspection? And how are your customers, I guess, receiving the feedback in terms of these differing technologies?

能否探討電子束檢測和光學檢測的未來發展方向？那麼，您的客戶對這些不同技術的回饋如何呢？

Well, thanks for the question, Patrick. So maybe -- first, let me start with our top level PDC business, and then I'll get into this optical e-beam question.

謝謝你的提問，派崔克。所以也許——首先，讓我從我們最高級別的PDC業務開始，然後再來討論這個光學電子束問題。

So really, there's 2 major focuses for our PDC business. Certainly, this is a growth opportunity. But also what is increasingly important is PDC accelerating billions of dollars of Applied-enabled PPACt inflections. I talked about earlier, gate-all-around and the wiring and the memory and all of these different areas. And we have the highest resolution e-beam platform in the industry. We're probably 50% higher resolution. So we can see things that other platforms cannot see.

所以，實際上，我們的PDC業務有兩個主要重點。這無疑是個發展機會。但更重要的是，PDC 正在加速數十億美元的應用 PPAC 轉折點。我之前談到了周圍的門電路、線路、記憶體以及所有這些不同的方面。我們擁有業界最高解析度的電子束平台。我們的解析度可能提高了 50%。因此我們可以看到其他平台看不到的東西。

We also have an advantage in the speed of imaging. So mapping out these fingerprints to dial in these processes faster with bigger process margins, that synergy -- Applied is the only company in the industry that has that combination of the unit processes, integrated material solutions and leading e-beam technology.

我們在成像速度方面也具有優勢。因此，透過繪製這些指紋圖譜，可以更快地調整這些製程，並獲得更大的製程裕度，從而實現協同效應——Applied 是業內唯一一家擁有單元製程、整合式材料解決方案和領先電子束技術的公司。

So that is strategically important. And I think that really, we see a great opportunity to accelerate our PDC revenue going forward. We talked about 50% growth this year on the top of 25% last year, but also that pull in the synergy with the rest of Applied Materials is incredibly valuable and very important.

所以這具有重要的戰略意義。而且我認為，我們確實看到了一個加速 PDC 收入成長的絕佳機會。我們談到今年在去年 25% 的成長基礎上再成長 50%，但同時，與應用材料公司其他部門的綜效也極為有價值，非常重要。

Relative to optical inspection, we did introduce this new platform, the Enlight. We see very strong pull and adoption, especially in leading foundry. And the combination of these technologies, basically, you have an optical inspection system that is incredibly cost-effective for line monitoring types of applications. And certainly, in the discussions that I have with many of the R&D leaders, tremendous pull for that technology, but also combining that with industry-leading resolution to accurately classify defects. And then having that capability to combine with AI gives customers a better overall performance in finding yield-limiting defects.

在光學檢測領域，我們推出了這款名為 Enlight 的新平台。我們看到了非常強勁的需求和採用率，尤其是在領先的代工廠。基本上，這些技術的結合，就形成了光學檢測系統，對於生產線監控類型的應用來說，其成本效益非常高。當然，在我與許多研發負責人進行的討論中，他們對這項技術有著巨大的需求，同時也希望將這項技術與業界領先的分辨率相結合，以準確地對缺陷進行分類。將這種能力與人工智慧結合，可以為客戶帶來更好的整體性能，幫助他們發現限制產量的缺陷。

So we're seeing definitely strong adoption of this concept with customers. But the key thing for me really is the e-beam leadership, that is fundamental. We're more than 5x larger than our overall largest PDC competitor. We have clear imaging leadership. We will be introducing new imaging technologies that will further strengthen our leadership in that part of our -- in that part of PDC. And the synergy in the T for PPACt is very, very, very important.

因此，我們看到客戶對這理念的接受度非常高。但對我來說，關鍵在於電子束的領導地位，這才是根本的。我們的規模比我們最大的PDC競爭對手大5倍以上。我們在影像成像領域擁有清晰的領先地位。我們將引入新的成像技術，這將進一步鞏固我們在PDC該領域的領先地位。而 T 代表 PPACt 的協同作用非常、非常、非常重要。

Our next question is from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

I just wanted to ask about the China business. China looks like it was a record on a dollar basis and about 1/3 of revenue. Did that business skew a little bit more demand given the NAND strength? Are you still seeing that being pretty broad based?

我只是想問一下關於中國業務的問題。以美元計算，中國市場似乎創下了紀錄，約佔總收入的三分之一。鑑於 NAND 快閃記憶體的強勁表現，該業務是否在一定程度上推高了需求？你仍然認為這種情況相當普遍嗎？

Thanks, Quinn. As we look at our China business, it was a strong performance in the most recent quarter. But it's in line generally with the historical profile of that business over time. Some quarters will be a little better than others, but certainly in line with the historical profile on a percent of our overall business.

謝謝你，奎因。從我們觀察中國業務來看，最近一個季度表現強勁。但這總體上與該企業歷年來的歷史發展趨勢相符。有些季度會比其他季度略好一些，但肯定與我們整體業務的歷史表現百分比相符。

As I take a look and double-click at the China domestic market and think about the levels of investment there, I would say that there is slow, steady development of the ecosystem. I see investments from a 200-millimeter and 300-millimeter standpoint. And then within the 300-millimeter geometries, we see investments across all device types. We see NAND, we see DRAM, we see foundry/logic.

當我仔細觀察中國國內市場，並思考那裡的投資水準時，我認為其生態系統正在緩慢且穩定地發展。我從 200 毫米和 300 毫米的角度看待投資。然後，在 300 毫米的幾何尺寸範圍內，我們看到了所有設備類型的投資。我們看到了NAND​​快閃記憶體，我們看到了DRAM，我們看到了晶圓代工/邏輯電路。

So I wouldn't say it's driven by one specific market, one specific customer. It's really broad based, both from a customer perspective as well as a market perspective. We feel good about how we're positioned against this opportunity, and we'll do well over time as that business continues to grow.

所以，我不會說這是由某個特定市場或某個特定客戶所驅動的。它的基礎非常廣泛，無論從客戶角度或市場角度來看都是如此。我們對自身把握這項機會的定位感到滿意，隨著業務的持續成長，我們也會取得良好的發展。

Our next question is from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

So Dan, you mentioned that if we give it some time, and if we believe in an industry heading towards the $1 trillion, we could have like wafer equipment spending in $140 million. So let's say, over 5 years or maybe a bit more, we could still see WFE doubling.

所以丹，你提到如果我們給它一些時間，如果我們相信一個行業會朝著 1 兆美元邁進，我們可能會看到晶圓設備支出達到 1.4 億美元。所以假設在 5 年或更長的時間裡，我們仍然可以看到 WFE 翻倍。

And then Gary, you talked a lot about -- like this upcoming inflection points to which we feel very close now, where materials is almost taking a revenge over critical dimension reduction. And so my question was, in a world in which the industry spends $150 billion on wafer equipment spending, the incremental $70 billion that would be spent compared to what is spent today, where would that go? If you could give, like, what in your view would be the most significant drivers of growth for the industry over that kind of long time period where we double again spending?

然後，Gary，你談到了很多——比如我們感覺現在非常接近的即將到來的轉折點，材料幾乎要對關鍵尺寸縮減進行反擊了。所以我的問題是，在一個行業每年在晶圓設備上花費 1500 億美元的世界裡，與今天的花費相比，新增的 700 億美元將用於哪裡？如果讓你說說，在你看來，在支出再次翻倍的漫長時期內，推動產業成長的最重要因素是什麼？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Pierre. So for me, I spent a lot of my time with customers across our entire -- all the different market segments, the leading customers. ICAPS, I spend a tremendous amount of time there more than ever. And I have a very strong perspective, and we can see things that we can't talk about publicly relative to where customers are going.

是的。謝謝你的提問，皮埃爾。所以對我來說，我花了很多時間與我們所有不同細分市場的客戶，也就是主要客戶交流。我在ICAPS花費的時間比以往任何時候都多。我擁有非常敏銳的洞察力，我們可以看到一些與客戶發展方向相關的、無法公開討論的事情。

But I really believe that we're at the point where we have the biggest economic competition of our lifetime with technology transforming every industry. And semiconductors are part of that key infrastructure, the data economy going forward. And it really is about power, performance and cost from the edge to the cloud and everything in between.

但我真的相信，我們正處於我們一生中最大的經濟競爭時期，科技正在改變每個產業。半導體是未來數據經濟的關鍵基礎設施的一部分。這確實關乎從邊緣到雲端以及兩者之間的所有環節的功率、效能和成本。

And I do believe -- and we can see it when you go from 5 to 3, 3 to 2, and what's going beyond that, that the playbook that we discussed before, and you even see customers supporting this view that the classic 2D Moore's Law will not enable the future infrastructure. I think that is crystal clear.

而且我確實相信——從 5 到 3，從 3 到 2，以及更遠的未來，我們可以看到這一點——我們之前討論過的策略，甚至客戶也支持這種觀點，即經典的 2D 摩爾定律將無法滿足未來的基礎設施需求。我覺得這一點非常清楚。

And it really is, certainly, there's going to be shrink as part of that 2D shrink. But that's not going to enable power and performance across that whole infrastructure for the future. So it's about the new materials. It's about the new structures, the gate-all-around, the 50% reduction in wiring, high-speed memory for a number of different applications. We're adding logic to the periphery, shaping the chip architectures in a very different way.

確實如此，二維空間的縮小必然會導致空間的縮小。但這樣做無法在未來提升整個基礎設施的功率和效能。所以關鍵在於新材料。它涉及新的結構、環繞式閘極、減少 50% 的佈線以及適用於多種不同應用的高速記憶體。我們正在外圍添加邏輯電路，以截然不同的方式塑造晶片架構。

And the other thing, and we talked about -- I talked about this earlier on the call, packaging is, I think, underappreciated and very important. This year, packaging will be over $800 million for us. And you think about connecting chips, or chiplets, or IP blocks, that is going to be an enormous opportunity going forward. And Applied is in a great position. We have very strong products in PVD, CVD, CMP, plating, this new hybrid bonding technology where you can bond 2 chips together. We're the only company in the industry that has a full flow advanced packaging lab.

還有一件事，我們之前也談過——我在電話會議中也談過——我認為包裝被低估了，但它非常重要。今年，我們的包裝支出將超過 8 億美元。想想看，將晶片、小晶片或 IP 模組連接起來，這將是未來一個巨大的機會。應用科技目前處境非常有利。我們在 PVD、CVD、CMP、電鍍以及這項可以將兩個晶片粘合在一起的新型混合鍵合技術方面擁有非常強大的產品。我們是業界唯一擁有全流程先進包裝實驗室的公司。

So Pierre, I think there's going to be tremendous innovation that's happening there. And again, that's another -- a segment of the industry where I think people under-appreciate how important from a competitive standpoint and in a PPACt-enabling standpoint, that's going to be.

所以皮埃爾，我認為那裡將會出現巨大的創新。而且，我認為，在這個行業中，人們低估了從競爭角度和 PPAC 賦能角度來看，這一點有多重要。

So again, those are the things that we see as we go forward. It's really about those 5 elements of the new playbook. And the other aspect is time to market, that's where we're focused with AIx, and especially our industry leadership in e-beam to drive the T.

所以，這些都是我們未來會遇到的問題。關鍵在於新策略手冊中的這五個要素。另一方面是上市時間，這也是我們 AIx 的關注點，尤其是我們在電子束領域的行業領先地位，以推動 T 的發展。

Our next question is from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的Timothy Arcuri。

Dan, I guess I had a 2-part question just about WFE and your share. So you gave a 2020 WFE number from VLSI, that's like 61 billion. And you did 12.1 in SSD last year. So that's about 20% WFE share. Then if I take your July SSD guidance, we know that you're doing about 8.2 billion in the first half, and you're saying that it's going to be up in the back half. So that's like 16.5 to 17 for the year, which off of your high 70 billion WFE number is like 21.5% WFE share. So that's up like 150 basis points this year.

丹，我有一個關於WFE和你那部分的問題，分成兩個部分。所以你給了2020年VLSI的WFE數據，大約是610億。去年你們在固態硬碟方面取得了 12.1 的成績。所以這大約佔WFE份額的20%。那麼，如果我按照你 7 月的 SSD 預測來看，我們知道你上半年的 SSD 銷量約為 82 億，而你表示下半年銷量還會上升。所以這一年大約是 16.5 到 17，以您 700 億 WFE 的高數字計算，約佔 WFE 份額的 21.5%。所以今年漲了約150個基點。

So I guess my question is, where is that share coming from? Can you sort of double-click on that? I know you highlighted process control. But I'm wondering if you can kind of double-click on that.

所以我想問的是，這部分股份來自哪裡？能雙擊一下嗎？我知道你重點強調了過程控制。但我很好奇，你能不能雙擊它。

And then the second part of the question was for domestic China, you had talked about 10 billion WFE this year. Is that still the thinking?

然後問題的第二部分是關於中國國內的，您提到今年的WFE達到了100億。現在還是這麼想的嗎？

Yes. So Tim, thanks for the question. I think it's important to really get the facts on the table for 2020. If you look at our semi systems business in calendar 2020, it's up 26.5% against a market that was up high teens. And so significant outperformance. We view it as gaining 60 basis points a share. So we ended 2020 at 20.5% WFE share.

是的。提姆，謝謝你的提問。我認為，對於2020年來說，真正把事實擺到檯面上來非常重要。如果看看我們 2020 年的半導體系統業務，它成長了 26.5%，而同期市場整體成長幅度接近 10%。因此，表現顯著優於平均。我們認為每股收益將成長 60 個基點。因此，我們在 2020 年底的 WFE 市佔率為 20.5%。

And so you referenced the 21.5% share in 2021. We think we're going to significantly outperform this year. You saw us grow almost 2:1 in foundry/logic last year. You saw us significantly outperform peers in 2020 in the DRAM market, and we showed strength in our NAND business.

所以你提到了 2021 年 21.5% 的市佔率。我們認為今年的業績將大幅超出預期。去年你們都看到了我們在程式碼建置/邏輯方面的成長幾乎達到了 2:1。你們已經看到我們在 2020 年 DRAM 市場大幅超越了同行，而且我們在 NAND 業務方面也展現出了實力。

And when I look at the customers node over node, whether it's memory or foundry/logic, our opportunity is going up. When I look at the end market profile, we talked about it, strength in foundry/logic, DRAM, strong business in NAND. So we feel good about the market perspective.

當我逐個節點觀察客戶時，無論是記憶體還是代工/邏輯，我們的機會都在增加。當我查看終端市場概況時，我們討論過，晶圓代工/邏輯、DRAM 和 NAND 業務都很強勁。因此，我們對市場前景感到樂觀。

And then when I look at the product portfolio, we showed share gains in deposition and removal and process control. Gary talked about packaging. We talked about 240 basis points of conductor etch, 220 basis points of CVD. We talked about strength in PVD, ePi, thermals. 2021, I would expect to do even better across that product portfolio.

然後，當我查看產品組合時，我們發現我們在沉積和去除以及製程控制方面取得了市場份額的成長。Gary談到了包裝。我們討論了 240 個基點的導體蝕刻和 220 個基點的 CVD。我們討論了 PVD、ePi 和熱學方面的強度。2021年，我預計該產品組合的表現會更好。

We talk about the new PPACt playbook. We talked a lot about the enabling technologies at our investor meeting. We've held one master class. We've got an upcoming master class on foundry/logic. We see these inflections is real. We've got the industry's broadest portfolio of industry-leading technologies, and we've got unique abilities to combine those technologies and bring them together in a way to solve our customers' highest value problems.

我們來談談新的PPAC策略手冊。我們在投資者會議上詳細討論了許多關鍵技術。我們舉辦過一次大師班。我們即將舉辦一場關於Foundry/Logic的大師班。我們看到這些變化是真實存在的。我們擁有業內最廣泛的行業領先技術組合，並且我們擁有獨特的能力，可以將這些技術結合起來，以解決客戶最有價值的問題。

And so we feel good about our position, our momentum and our ability to outperform in these markets. And so from -- I'm sorry, Tim, your second question?

因此，我們對自身在這些市場中的地位、發展動能以及超越市場表現的能力感到滿意。那麼──不好意思，提姆，你的第二個問題是什麼？

Sorry. I was just asking about domestic China WFE. I thought you said something like flat year-over-year around 10 billion this year. I was just kind of wondering if you had an update there.

對不起。我只是在問中國國內的WFE（女端設備）狀況。我記得你說過今年經濟規模會跟去年持平，約在100億億左右。我只是想問你有沒有什麼新的進展。

Yes. So what we said on the last earnings call is we see it up several billion on a year-over-year basis. And as more as the year progresses, I think what we see is domestic China maybe profiling in line with the overall WFE market. So we'll keep an eye on it, and we'll keep updating each and every quarter. But we kind of see it up in line with the overall market.

是的。我們在上次財報電話會議上說，我們預計其營收將年增數十億美元。隨著這一年的推進，我認為我們看到的是中國國內市場的發展趨勢可能與整體WFE市場的發展趨勢一致。所以我們會密切關注，並且每季都會更新相關資訊。但我們認為它與整體市場走勢基本一致。

Okay, great, operator. So I think we're at the end of the hour. So Dan, would you like to help us close off the call?

好的，接線生。所以我想我們已經到了最後一小時。丹，你願意幫我們結束這通通話嗎？

Yes, sure, Mike. So what I'm really struck by this quarter, it's just a broad validation of the trends. We've been talking about for quite some time from the data economy. And the opportunity that it creates for the semi industry, and that's at virtually every node, to the challenges that Gary talked about with 2D scaling.

好的，當然可以，麥克。所以，本季最讓我印象深刻的是，它廣泛地驗證了這些趨勢。我們已經談論數據經濟很長時間了。它為半導體產業創造了機遇，而且幾乎在每個節點上都是如此，這與 Gary 談到的 2D 擴展所面臨的挑戰形成了鮮明對比。

The industry just needs new ways to deliver the PPACt roadmap. Our customers are committed to very large multiyear investments but they're also coming at it from a position of financial strength, which is really great and bodes well for the industry long term. We're going to fully support them with the R&D investments that we make, that will drive the roadmap, solve our customers' highest value problems. We're going to generate profitable growth, and we're going to return a lot of cash to shareholders over time.

業界需要新的方式來落實 PPACt 路線圖。我們的客戶致力於進行多年巨額投資，而且他們也擁有雄厚的財力，這非常好，對行業的長期發展來說是個好兆頭。我們將全力支持他們，透過研發投入來推動產品路線圖的製定，解決客戶最有價值的問題。我們將實現獲利成長，並隨著時間的推移向股東返還大量現金。

Gary and I hope to see many of you at the virtual conferences in the next few weeks. And then I hope you'll join us and our technical leaders on the logic master class that we're going to have on June 16. Mike, let's go ahead and wrap up the call.

Gary 和我希望在接下來的幾週的線上會議上見到你們中的許多人。然後，我希望您能和我們的技術領導者一起參加我們將於 6 月 16 日舉辦的邏輯大師班。麥克，我們結束通話吧。

Okay. Great. Thanks, Dan. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of our call will be available on our website by 5:00 p.m. Pacific time. Thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你，丹。感謝各位今天蒞臨現場。本次電話會議的錄音將於下午 5 點前在我們的網站上提供。太平洋時間。感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

And this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接了。