應用材料 (AMAT) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。 （操作說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Michael Sullivan. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話轉給邁克爾·沙利文先生。請您發言，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Mike Sullivan, Head of Investor Relations at Applied Materials. We appreciate you joining us for our fourth quarter and fiscal year-end earnings call, which is being recorded. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Dan Durn, our Chief Financial Officer.

各位下午好。我是應用材料公司投資者關係主管麥克·沙利文。感謝各位參加我們第四季及全年財報電話會議，本次會議正在錄音。與我一同出席的還有我們的總裁兼執行長加里·迪克森，以及財務長丹·杜恩。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's current view of its industries, performance, products, share positions, and business outlook. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance. Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections and assumptions as of November 16, 2017, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

在會議開始之前，請允許我提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括Applied公司目前對其所在行業、業績、產品、市場份額和業務前景的看法。這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異，並非對未來績效的保證。有關這些風險和不確定性因素的信息，請參閱Applied公司最近向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的10-Q表和8-K表。所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理階層截至2017年11月16日的估計、預測和假設，Applied公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP調整後的財務指標。與GAAP指標的調節表包含在今天的獲利新聞稿和我們的調節表幻燈片中，這些資料可在我們網站appliedmaterials.com的投資者關係頁面找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike. On November 10, Applied celebrated our 50th anniversary, and in this milestone year, we delivered all-time record performance, far exceeding our previous highs. In fiscal 2017, we grew revenues 34% and operating profit at more than twice that rate. I'd like to thank all our employees for making this a great year for Applied and their passion for creating value for customers and shareholders. It's Applied's breadth that sets us apart, and across the company, we are firing on all cylinders. We have tremendous momentum and our outlook is strengthening. I'm confident that in 2018, we can deliver strong double-digit growth across our semiconductor display and service businesses.

謝謝，麥克。 11月10日，應用材料公司慶祝了成立50週年。在這個具有里程碑意義的年份，我們取得了歷史最佳業績，遠遠超過了以往的最高紀錄。 2017財年，我們的營收成長了34%，營業利潤成長速度更是超過了營收的兩倍。我要感謝所有員工，是他們的努力和熱情讓應用材料公司取得如此輝煌的成就，也感謝他們為客戶和股東創造價值的熱情。應用材料公司業務的廣度使我們脫穎而出，公司上下都全力以赴，蓬勃發展。我們擁有強勁的發展勢頭，前景也日益光明。我相信，2018年，我們的半導體顯示器和服務業務將實現兩位數的強勁成長。

Applied is working at the foundation of major technology trends and playing a larger and more valuable role in the electronics industry. Our vision is to make possible the technology shaping the future, and we've never been in a better position to do that.

應用材料公司正致力於推動重大技術趨勢的形成，並在電子產業中扮演越來越重要、越來越有價值的角色。我們的願景是讓塑造未來的技術成為可能，而我們從未像現在這樣擁有如此優越的條件來實現這個願景。

In today's call, I'll talk about our markets and the large emerging trends that are driving sustainable growth in semiconductor and display. I'll describe how Applied is positioned, our strategy and how we're translating our broad portfolio of products and capabilities into differentiated performance for the company. Dan will then provide more details about our execution, financial performance and outlook.

在今天的電話會議中，我將談談我們的市場以及推動半導體和顯示產業可持續成長的重大新興趨勢。我將闡述應用半導體的市場定位、策略，以及我們如何將豐富的產品組合和強大的技術能力轉化為公司差異化的績效。之後，丹將詳細介紹我們的執行情況、財務表現和展望。

Let me start by providing context. Our markets are strong and getting stronger because there's a much broader set of demand drivers than in the past. In the annual war for leadership in the smartphone market, handset manufacturers are adding more and more functionality to their devices. IoT applications are expanding rapidly and data generation is exploding. Major inflections are taking place in the data center, and there's an emerging battle for leadership in high-performance computing and artificial intelligence. And there is huge demand for new display technology, while at the same time, average screen sizes for both TVs and mobile devices are growing considerably. A customer recently told me that this is the most exciting time in the history of the electronics industry, and I strongly agree.

首先，我想介紹一下背景。我們的市場強勁且持續成長，因為需求驅動因素比以往任何時候都更加廣泛。在智慧型手機市場一年一度的領導地位爭奪戰中，手機製造商不斷為其設備添加更多功能。物聯網應用正在迅速擴展，數據生成量呈現爆炸性成長。資料中心正在經歷重大變革，高效能運算和人工智慧領域的領導地位之爭也正在興起。同時，市場對新型顯示技術的需求龐大，電視和行動裝置的平均螢幕尺寸也在顯著成長。一位客戶最近告訴我，這是電子產業史上最令人興奮的時代，我對此深表贊同。

We are at the start of a completely new wave of growth. The Internet of Things, big data and artificial intelligence have the potential to transform entire industries and create trillions of dollars of economic value. As a result, we are seeing a broad spectrum of companies investing in AI-related technology. From transportation and health care to entertainment and retail, future success is dependent on capturing, storing, and understanding vast amounts of data. This is driving major innovations in sensors, memory, storage, and especially compute, which is key to turning raw data into valuable information.

我們正處於全新成長浪潮的開端。物聯網、大數據和人工智慧擁有顛覆整個產業的潛力，並能創造數兆美元的經濟價值。因此，我們看到各行各業的公司都在投資人工智慧相關技術。從交通運輸和醫療保健到娛樂和零售，未來的成功都取決於能否擷取、儲存和理解大量資料。這正在推動感測器、記憶體、存儲，尤其是計算領域的重大創新，而計算正是將原始數據轉化為有價值資訊的關鍵。

Leading AI companies are telling us they need a step change in computing performance. This is driving a trend towards new, highly specialized architectures customized for AI workloads, as well as much larger chips. Huge advances in computing are taking place both in the cloud and at the edge. For applications where latency and security are important, like autonomous vehicles, natural language processing or safety systems, data will be processed and stored at the edge. This means more logic and memory content in edge devices where power requirements are much more critical than in the cloud.

領先的人工智慧公司告訴我們，他們需要運算效能的飛躍式提升。這推動了新型、高度專業化的架構（專為人工智慧工作負載客製化）以及更大晶片的出現。運算能力的巨大進步正在雲端和邊緣端同時發生。對於延遲和安全性至關重要的應用，例如自動駕駛汽車、自然語言處理或安全系統，資料將在邊緣處理和儲存。這意味著邊緣設備需要更多的邏輯和記憶體容量，而邊緣設備的功耗要求遠比雲端更為嚴苛。

The AI architecture war is shaping up to be the biggest battle of our lifetimes, and is going to be a major driver for the logic foundry road map. The winning architectures will provide large improvements in performance and power, and Applied is in a unique position to deliver the innovative materials needed to enable AI leadership.

人工智慧架構之爭正逐漸演變為我們這一代所面臨的最大挑戰，並將成為邏輯晶片代工路線圖的主要驅動力。最終勝出的架構將在性能和功耗方面帶來顯著提升，而應用材料公司憑藉其獨特的優勢，能夠提供助力人工智慧領域領先地位所需的創新材料。

I'll now translate these end market trends into an outlook for our served markets. In memory, shipments are at record levels, and market dynamics remain very healthy. DRAM and NAND content in smartphones is growing considerably. For example, the average NAND content in entry-level phones has doubled from 32 gigabytes in 2016, to 64 gigabytes today.

接下來，我將把這些終端市場趨勢轉化為對我們所服務市場的展望。在記憶體領域，出貨量創歷史新高，市場動態依然非常健康。智慧型手機中的DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體容量正在顯著成長。例如，入門級手機的平均NAND快閃記憶體容量已經翻了一番，從2016年的32GB成長到今天的64GB。

Content is also growing in the data center, and the total cost of ownership of NAND-based solid-state drives is on track to cross over 10K hard disk drives in 2018, increasing the SSD opportunity to around 35% of the enterprise storage market.

資料中心的內容也在不斷增長，基於 NAND 的固態硬碟的總擁有成本預計在 2018 年超過 1 萬美元的硬碟，這將使 SSD 在企業儲存市場的機會增加到約 35%。

Overall, bit demand growth remains strong, in a range of 20% to 25% for DRAM and greater than 40% for NAND. Our customers are making disciplined investments in both capacity and new technology to address the explosion of data generation and the need for high-performance memory to support emerging applications. And as the memory road map is enabled by materials innovation, this is very positive for Applied.

整體而言，位元需求成長依然強勁，DRAM 的成長率在 20% 到 25% 之間，而 NAND 的成長率則超過 40%。我們的客戶正在穩步投資於產能和新技術，以應對數據生成量的爆炸性增長以及對高效能記憶體的支持，從而助力新興應用的發展。由於記憶體的發展路線圖依賴材料創新，這對應用材料公司來說無疑是利好消息。

In foundry, we see strong demand at the leading edge, driven by next-generation mobile devices, automotive and high-performance computing. We're also seeing significant investment in trailing geometries, especially for image sensors. This is driven by the adoption of dual cameras and smartphones, as well as IoT devices, including public safety systems. Looking ahead, we expect the emerging battle for leadership in AI and high-performance computing to be a major driver for the 7- and 5-nanometer nodes.

在晶圓代工領域，我們看到尖端裝置需求強勁，這主要得益於下一代行動裝置、汽車和高效能運算的推動。同時，我們也看到對後沿幾何結構的顯著投資，尤其是在影像感測器領域。這主要受雙鏡頭智慧型手機以及包括公共安全系統在內的物聯網設備普及的推動。展望未來，我們預期人工智慧和高效能運算領域日益激烈的領導地位爭奪將成為7奈米和5奈米製程節點發展的主要驅動力。

Increasing investment in China is additive to overall wafer fab equipment, and especially good for Applied since we have very high share in this market. We now see total spending in China being around $2 billion higher in 2018 compared to 2017, with more significant growth to come over the next several years.

增加對中國晶圓製造設備的整體投資是有益的，這對應用材料公司來說尤其有利，因為我們在該市場擁有很高的份額。我們預計2018年在中國的總支出將比2017年增加約20億美元，未來幾年還將出現更顯著的成長。

Bringing all of this together, our outlook for wafer fab equipment spending has strengthened since our analyst meeting in September. We now believe combined investment in 2017 and 2018 will be several billion dollars above our prior forecast of $90 billion, and that 2018 will be larger than this year.

綜合以上因素，自9月分析師會議以來，我們對晶圓製造設備支出的預期有所增強。我們現在認為，2017年和2018年的總投資額將比我們先前預測的900億美元高出數十億美元，而且2018年的投資額將高於今年。

This positive market environment increases our confidence that we will sustain our growth momentum in 2018 and make meaningful progress towards our 2020 financial model. Applied has never been in a better position than we are today, thanks to the breadth of our capabilities and product portfolio. Our breadth not only gives us, by far, the largest exposure to industry inflections, it also is creating strong pull for earlier and deeper collaborations with customers.

正向的市場環境增強了我們對2018年維持成長動能並朝著2020年財務目標取得實質進展的信心。憑藉我們廣泛的能力和產品組合，Applied如今的處境從未如此有利。這種廣泛的能力和產品組合不僅使我們擁有迄今為止最大的產業變革機會，也促使我們與客戶進行更早、更深入的合作。

In these customer engagements, we are combining our unique capabilities to create new materials with our innovative technologies in materials removal, materials modification and e-beam inspection and metrology to deliver new integrated solutions. Our breadth also provides us with speed advantages. Speed of innovation is more important than ever for our customers, and bringing new devices to markets faster is tremendously valuable. Because we bring together the most enabling capabilities in one place, we can help customers to develop winning devices faster and more effectively.

在這些客戶合作中，我們將自身獨特的創新能力與材料去除、材料改質以及電子束檢測和計量等技術相結合，提供全新的整合解決方案。我們廣泛的業務範圍也為我們帶來了速度優勢。對於我們的客戶而言，創新速度比以往任何時候都更加重要，更快地將新產品推向市場具有巨大的價值。由於我們將最強大的能力整合於一處，因此能夠幫助客戶更快、更有效率地開發出致勝的產品。

To strengthen customer collaborations that are made in technology center and in their labs, we recently aligned the organization to better connect our broad capabilities across the company. We also increased our R&D investment by more than $230 million in 2017.

為了加強與客戶在技術中心及其實驗室的合作，我們近期調整了組織架構，以便更好地整合公司內部的各項能力。此外，我們在2017年增加了超過2.3億美元的研發投入。

In semiconductor, our process equipment businesses that provide materials engineering solutions grew about 40% in fiscal 2017. And our inspection and metrology business grew at around 20%, delivering all-time record revenues. This was an especially strong year for our PVD, CMP and thermal products, driven by the mass adoption of advanced interconnection logic, as well as increasing use of logic-like processes in memory.

在半導體領域，我們為材料工程解決方案提供製程設備的業務在2017財年成長了約40%。我們的檢測和計量業務成長了約20%，創下了歷史新高。由於先進互連邏輯的廣泛應用以及記憶體中類似邏輯製程的日益普及，我們的PVD、CMP和熱處理產品在這一年表現尤為強勁。

We also made strong gains in patterning and 3D NAND, and we're in a great position to grow in DRAM as customers transition to new higher performance devices over the next several years.

我們在圖案化和 3D NAND 領域也取得了顯著進展，隨著客戶在未來幾年過渡到性能更高的新設備，我們在 DRAM 領域也處於有利地位，有望實現成長。

As we look ahead, we see customers increasing their focus on innovative materials and structures to derive the major advances in transistor and interconnect needed to enable high-performance computing in AI. As a result, there is increasingly strong pull for our leadership products that improved performance and power efficiency of leading-edge devices.

展望未來，我們看到客戶越來越關注創新材料和結構，以期在電晶體和互連技術方面取得重大突破，從而實現人工智慧領域的高效能運算。因此，市場對我們能夠提升尖端元件性能和能源效率的領先產品的需求日益強勁。

In service, our momentum is accelerating as we introduce new ways to deliver value to customers. We delivered record performance in 2017, with fourth quarter revenues up 20% compared to the same period last year. In 2017, the fastest-growing business in our portfolio was Display, with revenue growth of 57% year-on-year. Due to the physical signs of Display equipment, lead times are much longer than in semiconductor, and that gives us extended visibility. We expect 2018 and 2019 will be very strong.

在服務方面，隨著我們不斷推出為客戶創造價值的新方式，我們的發展動能正在加速。 2017年，我們取得了創紀錄的業績，第四季營收年增20%。 2017年，我們業務組合中成長最快的是顯示器業務，營收年增57%。由於顯示器設備具有明顯的物理特性，其交付週期遠長於半導體產業，這使我們能夠更清晰地了解市場動態。我們預計2018年和2019年將保持強勁的成長動能。

In our last earnings call, we said 2018 Display revenue would be up more than 30% versus 2017. Our view for 2018 is now even more positive, and we see revenue growth exceeding our previous estimates.

在上次財報電話會議上，我們曾表示2018年顯示器業務營收將比2017年成長30%以上。現在我們對2018年的展望更加樂觀，預期營收成長將超過我們先前的預期。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'll quickly summarize. Fiscal 2017 was a record-breaking year for the company. We have great momentum, and we're confident that in 2018, we can deliver strong double-digit growth across our semiconductor, display and service businesses. This is underpinned by sustainable strength in our markets. As new demand drivers layer on top of traditional computing and mobility, AI will transform industries over the coming years, and Applied plays a fundamental role creating the materials that enable the next-generation of memory and high-performance computing.

在將電話轉給丹之前，我先做個簡要總結。 2017財年是公司創紀錄的一年。我們目前發展勢頭強勁，並有信心在2018年實現半導體、顯示器和服務業務的兩位數強勁成長。這得益於我們在市場上的持續強勁表現。隨著新的需求驅動因素在傳統運算和行動技術之上不斷湧現，人工智慧將在未來幾年變革各行各業，而應用材料公司在創造下一代記憶體和高效能運算所需的材料方面發揮著至關重要的作用。

In addition, Applied is uniquely positioned to drive differentiated performance, thanks to the breadth of our portfolio of products and capabilities.

此外，憑藉我們廣泛的產品組合和能力，Applied 在推動差異化績效方面具有獨特的優勢。

Now Dan will give his perspective on our execution and outlook.

現在丹將對我們的執行情況和前景發表他的看法。

Thanks, Gary. Let me start by saying that the semiconductor industry is more exciting today than it's been in many years. This is absolutely the perfect environment for Applied Materials because we're the biggest, broadest and most capable company in delivering leading-edge process technology to our customers. The future Gary described needs an order of magnitude improvement in processing performance and in performance per watt, plus geometric cost reductions in solid-state storage. The future is not going to happen with the same chips and chip-making methods that got us to where we are today.

謝謝，Gary。首先我想說，如今的半導體產業比多年來任何時候都更加令人振奮。對於應用材料公司而言，這絕對是絕佳的發展環境，因為我們是業界規模最大、業務最廣泛、能力最強的公司，能夠為客戶提供最前沿的製程技術。 Gary所描述的未來需要製程效能和每瓦效能實現數量級的提升，以及固態儲存成本的幾何級數降低。而我們今天所採用的晶片和晶片製造方法，將無法引領我們走向未來。

Shrinking isn't enough anymore. We also need breakthroughs in materials, materials engineering, which is why we're so focused on disruptive products, new material combinations and rapid learning.

僅僅縮小尺寸已經不夠了。我們還需要材料和材料工程的突破，這就是為什麼我們如此專注於顛覆性產品、新型材料組合和快速學習。

For me, personally, it's been an amazing and eye-opening 3 months. So much of what the semiconductor industry does begins with Applied Materials. The talent and the technology inside this company are second to none, and we're going to play a huge role in enabling the new AI era of computing.

對我個人而言，這三個月令人驚嘆，也讓我大開眼界。半導體產業的許多發展都始於應用材料公司。這家公司擁有頂尖的人才和技術，我們將在推動人工智慧時代的到來中發揮舉足輕重的作用。

Now I'll talk about what we're focusing on and how we're executing as a company. First, we're focused on making sure we're putting our R&D dollars to work in the right areas, to create and enable the inflections and to grow in those inflections. We're also focused on being the disciplined execution machine we need to be to satisfy our customers and investors, and keep increasing our profitability and shareholder returns.

現在我將談談我們公司的重點工作以及我們的執行方式。首先，我們致力於確保研發資金投入正確的領域，創造並掌握發展機遇，並在這些機會中成長。同時，我們也致力於成為一支高效執行的團隊，以滿足客戶和投資者的需求，並持續提高獲利能力和股東回報。

Since it's the end of our fiscal year, I'll summarize how we're doing across the major parts of our portfolio. As I outlined at the Analyst Day in New York, our semiconductor systems group has a wide range of product lines that can be summarized in 2 areas: leadership and high growth. In leadership semi, we have unique, strong share businesses that enable high performance, low-power transistors and interconnects. Our team is focused on expanding our reach beyond logic and foundry, because DRAM and NAND chips also need to be faster and consume less power. This is increasingly true in both AI workloads and cloud data centers.

值此財年結束之際，我將總結我們主要業務板塊的進展。正如我在紐約分析師日所概述的，我們的半導體系統事業部擁有廣泛的產品線，可以概括為兩大領域：領先領域和高成長領域。在領先半導體領域，我們擁有獨特且市佔率強大的業務，能夠實現高效能、低功耗的電晶體和互連裝置。我們的團隊正致力於將業務拓展到邏輯和晶圓代工之外，因為DRAM和NAND晶片也需要更快、更節能。這一點在人工智慧工作負載和雲端資料中心中都日益凸顯。

Within memory, our leadership semi businesses were up 45% year-over-year. Over the past 4 years, they've grown by a factor of 4 in memory, contributing an additional $1.5 billion in revenue growth and 2.5 points of our company's share gain in memory over that same time period. I'll share some of the applications that are driving this great performance.

在記憶體領域，我們領先的半導體業務年增了45%。過去四年，記憶體業務成長了四倍，貢獻了15億美元的額外收入成長，並為我們公司同期在記憶體領域的市佔率提升了2.5個百分點。接下來，我將分享一些推動這項卓越績效的應用案例。

When NAND moved to 3D, our epi technology was adopted to increase read and write speeds. Today, in DRAM, the control circuitry is adopting advanced logic structures to increase data access performance and reduce power consumption. This is driving more demand for our PVD, implant and thermal technologies.

當NAND快閃記憶體邁向3D時代時，我們的外延技術被應用於提升讀寫速度。如今，在DRAM領域，控制電路正採用先進的邏輯結構來提升資料存取效能並降低功耗。這推動了對我們PVD、離子注入和散熱技術的更大需求。

The second area of our semiconductor systems group, our high-growth semi businesses, are about cost-effective 2D and 3D scaling. Our teams have been extending our wins in 3D NAND to new wins in 2D scaling. The old patterning steps are being replaced with new techniques, including self-aligned multi-patterning and EUV. Applied is growing and gaining share in these areas because we introduced new platforms, including Sym3 and Selectra.

我們半導體系統事業部的第二個領域，即高成長的半導體業務，專注於經濟高效的二維和三維微縮技術。我們的團隊已將我們在三維NAND領域的成功拓展到二維微縮領域。傳統的圖案化步驟正被新技術所取代，包括自對準多重圖案化和極紫外光微影（EUV）。應用材料公司之所以能夠在這些領域不斷成長並擴大市場份額，是因為我們推出了包括Sym3和Selectra在內的新平台。

The greatest challenge in advanced patterning is aligning the features between the critical layers. We are solving this challenge with new materials based-alignment techniques, along with EB measurement and inspection. As a result, our patterning share is growing by 4 points year-over-year, and our imaging and process control group generated its highest revenue ever.

先進圖案化技術面臨的最大挑戰在於如何對準關鍵層之間的特徵。我們正利用基於新型材料的對準技術，結合電子束測量和檢測，來解決這個難題。因此，我們的圖案化業務份額年增4個百分點，成像和製程控制團隊也創下了歷史新高。

Our services business is about helping our customers to manage the increasing process complexity and generate high returns in an era of higher capital intensity. This year, we drove a 25% increase in tools under comprehensive service agreements. The agreements enable us to generate more value by helping our customers get to yield faster, and maintain higher yields and lower operating costs over the life of each node. We grew our services business by 17% this year to a record $3 billion, and plan to keep growing at a 15% compound rate through 2020.

我們的服務業務旨在幫助客戶應對日益複雜的流程，並在資本密集度更高的時代實現高回報。今年，我們透過綜合服務協議推動工具使用量成長了25%。這些協議使我們能夠幫助客戶更快地實現收益，並在每個節點的生命週期中保持更高的收益和更低的營運成本，從而創造更多價值。今年，我們的服務業務成長了17%，達到創紀錄的30億美元，並計劃在2020年之前保持15%的複合年增長率。

Our Display business is about bigger and better TVs, along with mobile displays that are thinner, lighter and better looking than ever. The team has done an excellent job in ramping a new generation of our tools for Gen 10.5 Display factories. Gen 10.5 substrates are 80% larger and will allow customers to make the leap to affordable 65-inch and 75-inch TVs.

我們的顯示器業務專注於更大、更優質的電視，以及比以往更薄、更輕、更美觀的行動顯示器。團隊在為第 10.5 代顯示器工廠開發新一代工具方面做得非常出色。第 10.5 代基板尺寸增大了 80%，將幫助客戶實現價格更親民的 65 吋和 75 吋電視的飛躍。

In mobile, our team established the leading position in thin-film encapsulation, which enables OLED smartphones that are now the hottest selling products of the leading brands. We grew the Display business to a record $1.9 billion this year. While the business units are generating product wins and strong revenue growth, the manufacturing and support organizations are also executing well. Our manufacturing teams are delivering 1.4x the volume of prior years, and at the same time, they've reduced their cycle times, while improving our overall quality metrics. Going forward, we will keep a sharp focus on further improving our operational performance, cost structure and continuing to drive spending discipline.

在行動領域，我們的團隊在薄膜封裝技術方面確立了領先地位，這項技術助力OLED智慧型手機的研發，而這些智慧型手機如今已成為各大品牌最暢銷的產品。今年，我們的顯示業務營收創下19億美元的新紀錄。在各業務部門不斷贏得市場並實現強勁營收成長的同時，製造和支援部門的運作也表現出色。我們的製造團隊的產量是往年的1.4倍，同時縮短了生產週期，並提升了整體品質指標。展望未來，我們將繼續專注於營運績效的進一步提升、成本結構的最佳化以及持續的支出控制。

Now I'll share our financial performance. We're pleased to report that in Q4, we delivered strong year-over-year growth across the company. In semiconductor systems, we grew revenue by 14% and non-GAAP operating profit by 19%.

現在我將分享我們的財務表現。我們很高興地宣布，第四季度公司各業務均實現了強勁的同比增長。在半導體系統業務方面，我們的營收成長了14%，非GAAP營業利潤成長了19%。

In services, we increased both revenue and non-GAAP operating profit by 20%. And in Display, we grew revenue by 50% and non-GAAP operating profit by 109%. Applied as a whole delivered record revenue and earnings in Q4, landing near the high end of our guidance range.

在服務業務方面，我們的營收和非GAAP營業利潤均成長了20%。在顯示業務方面，我們的營收成長了50%，非GAAP營業利潤成長了109%。應用科技第四季整體營收和獲利均創歷史新高，接近我們預期範圍的高端。

Our 2017 fiscal year was our best ever. We grew revenue by 34% to a new record level. We increased non-GAAP gross margin by 2.9 points. We reduced non-GAAP OpEx as a percentage of revenue by 3.2 points. We increased non-GAAP operating profit by 6.2 points, and grew non-GAAP EPS by 86% to a record $3.25. All of this resulted in record operating cash flow of $3.6 billion, equal to 25% of revenue. We paid $430 million in cash dividends, and we used $1.2 billion to repurchase 28 million shares of common stock at an average price of $42.08.

2017財年是我們有史以來業績最好的一年。我們的營收成長了34%，創下歷史新高。非GAAP毛利率提高了2.9個百分點。非GAAP營運支出佔營收的比例下降了3.2個百分點。非GAAP營業利潤成長了6.2個百分點，非GAAP每股收益成長了86%，達到創紀錄的3.25美元。所有這些成就帶來了創紀錄的36億美元營運現金流，相當於營收的25%。我們支付了4.3億美元的現金股息，並以12億美元以平均每股42.08美元的價格回購了2,800萬股普通股。

Now I'll turn to our outlook. Looking ahead to 2018 and 2019, one word leaps to mind: sustainability. Our markets are sustainably strong, and our momentum is sustainably strong. Gary mentioned that wafer fab equipment is going to be comfortably above $90 billion in 2017 and 2018 combined. We believe WFE will remain sustainably higher and more stable than in the past. There are 3 strong reasons for this. First, unit demand is growing. Second, capital intensity is higher. And lastly, our customers are very healthy, and making sound investments to generate profitable growth in the next wave of computing, which will take a decade or more to fully build out.

現在我來談談我們的展望。展望2018年和2019年，一個字立刻浮現在我的腦海中：永續性。我們的市場持續強勁，發展動能也持續強勁。 Gary提到，2017年和2018年晶圓製造設備市場總值將輕鬆超過900億美元。我們相信，晶圓製造設備市場將保持比以往更高的水平和更穩定的狀態。這主要有三個原因。首先，單位需求正在成長。其次，資本密集度較高。最後，我們的客戶營運狀況良好，並且正在進行穩健的投資，以在下一波運算浪潮中實現獲利成長。而這波浪潮的全面建成可能需要十年甚至更久。

In fact, the markets for chips and displays are both fundamentally strong. And that's great for Applied Materials as the company with the most growth levers in our space. We enable better smartphones and TVs, and we power the Internet of Things, big data and artificial intelligence, which together, are creating a new data economy.

事實上，晶片和顯示器市場的基本面都非常強勁。這對應用材料公司來說無疑是個好消息，因為我們是該領域成長潛力最大的公司。我們協助打造更優質的智慧型手機和電視，並為物聯網、大數據和人工智慧提供動力，而這些技術正在共同建構一個全新的數據經濟。

At the Analyst Day, Gary showed that Applied now captures 1% of all of the spending in the electronics industry and that our share has doubled in the past 4 years alone. In January, Gary and I are attending the Consumer Electronics show to meet with investors and explain how we'll continue to grow the company by enabling these major trends shaping how we live our lives.

在分析師日上，Gary 展示了 Applied 目前佔據電子行業總支出的 1%，並且僅在過去四年裡，我們的份額就翻了一番。一月份，Gary 和我將參加消費電子展，與投資者會面，並闡述我們將如何透過順應這些影響我們生活方式的重大趨勢，繼續推動公司發展。

In today's earnings release, we included a table detailing our year-end backlog. It gives you a better sense of the year we just had, and more importantly, our momentum going into 2018.

在今天的財報中，我們附上了一張表格，詳細列出了我們年底的訂單積壓情況。這能讓您更了解我們剛剛過去的一年，更重要的是，也能讓您了解我們進入2018年的發展動能。

In 2017, Applied generated record orders of $16.1 billion, and we ended the year with a record backlog of over $6 billion and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.11. Our backlog entering 2018 is large and broad-based. In semi, it's $3 billion. In services, it's $1.1 billion. And in Display, $1.85 billion.

2017年，應用材料公司創下161億美元的訂單額紀錄，年底積壓訂單超過60億美元，訂單出貨比達到1.11，均創歷史新高。進入2018年，我們的積壓訂單規模龐大且涵蓋廣泛領域。半導體領域的積壓訂單為30億美元，服務領域的積壓訂單為11億美元，顯示領域的積壓訂單為18.5億美元。

In 2018, we anticipate that each of our segments will grow faster than the rate needed to achieve our 2020 model on schedule. So we're off to a great start executing to the target model we discussed at our recent Analyst Day in New York.

2018年，我們預期各業務板塊的成長速度都將超過實現2020年目標所需的速度。因此，我們在執行近期在紐約分析師日上討論的目標模型方面取得了良好的開端。

Now I'll share our guidance. In Q1, we expect revenue to be in the range of $4.0 billion to $4.2 billion, the midpoint would be up nearly 25% year-over-year. We expect our semiconductor systems revenue to increase by about 32% year-over-year. We expect our services revenue to grow about 17% year-over-year, but will be lower sequentially, which is normal seasonality due to the customer production schedules during the holiday season. We expect our Display revenue to increase by about 6% year-over-year.

現在我來分享一下我們的業績預期。第一季度，我們預計營收將在40億美元至42億美元之間，中位數將年增近25%。我們預計半導體系統業務營收將年增約32%。我們預計服務業務營收將年增約17%，但環比將有所下降，這是由於假日期間客戶生產計畫的正常季節性影響。我們預計顯示器業務營收將年增約6%。

We expect our non-GAAP gross margin to be about 46.6%. Non-GAAP operating expenses should be $715 million, plus or minus $10 million. This amount includes holiday shutdown savings of nearly $10 million. And we expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $0.98, plus or minus $0.04. The midpoint of our range is up nearly 46% year-over-year.

我們預計非GAAP毛利率約為46.6%。非GAAP營運費用預計為7.15億美元，上下浮動1000萬美元。該金額包含近1000萬美元的假日停工節省費用。我們預計非GAAP每股收益為0.98美元，上下浮動0.04美元。我們預測區間的中位數較上年同期成長近46%。

Lastly, because it's the beginning of a new year, I wanted to offer you some help with your models. Gross margins for full year 2018 are likely to be near our guidance level for Q1. We remain laser-focused on gross margin improvements across our businesses, and some of our progress is likely to be masked by our rapid growth in Display throughout the year.

最後，值此新年伊始之際，我想就您的模型提供一些幫助。 2018 年全年的毛利率可能接近我們對第一季的預期水準。我們將繼續全力提升各業務的毛利率，而我們所取得的部分進展可能會被顯示器業務全年的快速成長所掩蓋。

Our Display outlook is stronger. And while Q1 Display revenue and operating margin will be lower sequentially, we expect both to be higher in the balance of the year. We recently increased our Display operating margin goal to the high-20s. And our non-GAAP tax rate is likely to be around 10%. I hope this additional color helps with your models.

我們對顯示器業務的前景更為樂觀。雖然第一季顯示器業務的營收和營業利潤率較上季會有所下降，但我們預計今年剩餘時間這兩項數據都將有所成長。我們最近將顯示器業務的營業利潤率目標上調至20%以上。此外，我們的非GAAP稅率可能在10%左右。希望這些資訊能對您的模型有所幫助。

And with that, I'll turn the call back to Mike to start the Q&A.

接下來，我將把電話轉回給麥克，開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，丹。 （操作員指令）操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from C.J. Muse from Evercore.

（操作說明）您的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess my question centers around operating margin targets. And you're hovering around 29% here and you're targeting the 2020 model of 29.6%. And I guess, thinking about the growth dynamics that you've outlined, as well as the fact that you need to obviously continue to invest in R&D, we'd love to hear kind of the push and pull that you see ahead. And would you agree that perhaps your target model is a bit conservative? But love to hear your thoughts around that.

我的問題主要圍繞在營業利潤率目標。你們目前的營業利益率在29%左右，而2020年的目標則是29.6%。考慮到你們概述的成長動態，以及你們顯然需要繼續加大研發投入，我們很想聽聽你們對未來發展趨勢的看法。你們是否也認為你們的目標模型可能略顯保守？很想聽聽你們的看法。

Thanks, C.J. The company has made great progress over the last 4 years on margins. From a gross margin standpoint, the company's added about 1 point per year over that time period. If you look at our operating margins, since 2013, we've added over 14 points to our operating margin, so the company is performing and executing incredibly well. If we look at the way the company is compressing discretionary spend and funneling more resources to R&D, it's what's leading to the rapid organic growth that the company is delivering. Gary is an incredibly-focused, inflection-driven organic grower. And we're going to continue to execute against that strategy. So company's made good progress historically. We'll continue to make progress. You'll see operating leverage in the model going forward, and we're going to be looking for additional opportunities to improve margins beyond the target model and beyond the guidance that we gave on both the gross margin and operating margin lines. And we'll deliver that to shareholders when we find those opportunities to execute on. So we're really confident and we've done a great job, historically, and we'll continue to execute well.

謝謝C.J.。過去四年，公司在利潤率方面取得了顯著進展。從毛利率來看，公司在此期間每年成長約1個百分點。如果您看一下我們的營業利潤率，自2013年以來，我們的營業利潤率成長了超過14個百分點，因此公司業績和執行力都非常出色。如果我們觀察公司如何壓縮可自由支配支出並將更多資源投入研發，就會發現這正是公司快速內生成長的關鍵。 Gary是一位目標明確、注重轉捩點的內生成長型領導者。我們將繼續執行這項戰略。因此，公司過去取得了良好的進展，我們將繼續取得進步。您將在未來的模型中看到營運槓桿效應，我們將尋找更多機會，在目標模型和我們先前給出的毛利率和營業利潤率指引之外，進一步提升利潤率。一旦找到合適的執行機會，我們將立即向股東報告。所以我們非常有信心，而且從歷史數據來看，我們做得非常出色，我們將繼續保持良好的執行力。

Yes. One other thing, C.J., I would add, as Dan talked about on the call, we're off to a great start. So if you look at the model we talked about just a couple of months ago, and the data that we provided in the call today, we're going to be well along the way towards that financial model for 2020. Certainly, we're not going to update anything this soon, but we're off to a really great start.

是的。還有一點，C.J.，我想補充一下，正如丹在電話會議上提到的，我們開局非常順利。如果你看看我們幾個月前討論的模型，以及我們今天在電話會議上提供的數據，你會發現我們距離2020年的財務模型已經邁出了堅實的一步。當然，我們不會這麼快就更新任何內容，但我們的確開局良好。

And your next question comes from Atif Malik from Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的阿提夫·馬利克。

Gary, if you can just qualitatively talk about what's driving the upside to the $90 billion number on WFE that you shared at your Analyst Day? Which end markets are looking better, is it damage sensors, is it domestic China? And similarly, on the Display side, is it PVs or is it more OLED that's driving higher than 30% year-over-year growth?

Gary，您能否定性地談談您在分析師日上提到的WFE（晶圓製造設備）900億美元成長數字背後的驅動因素？哪些終端市場前景較好？是損傷感測器，還是中國國內市場？同樣，在顯示器方面，是光伏組件（PV）還是OLED推動了超過30%的年成長？

Thanks, Atif. This is Dan. Let me jump in. 2017 was a record year for the industry. At our Analyst Day, we said 2017, 2018 combined would be $90 billion. Gary, in his prepared comments, said several billion more than that, and we see the fundamentals into 2019 being strong as well. As we take a look at what's driving this level of activity, I've put it into 3 buckets. First, demand drivers; second, capital intensity; third, our customers are very healthy. From a demand drivers standpoint, we're layering in additional layers of end market demand, things like artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, big data, autonomous driving. We still have content gains to go -- significant content gains to go in the handset, and we're seeing significant demand for solid state drives. So as we look across the industry, the demand drivers are multiple and broad-based. And as we take a look at how that translates to activity within our industry, each of the device types is showing strength. Capital intensity is up across the industry. In foundry, it's up 100% over the last handful of years. And in that same time period, NAND is up 60% and DRAM is up 40%. And customers, they're investing a lot, but they're making a lot of money. The level of investment, as a percentage of their profitability, EBITDA is down over the last 5 years in memory. It's down 40% in foundry and logic, it's down 50%. So the ecosystem customers are healthy and will continue to invest and generate returns on that investment. As we look at the industry and where we're at, at the very highest level, I would say there's strong balance between foundry logic and memory, with maybe a slight weighting towards memory. And within memory, we see NAND about 2/3 of that market and DRAM about 1/3. In foundry logic, we see foundry about 2/3 and logic about 1/3. And in 2018, we see that same or similar profile that we're seeing in '17. So we think that the upside is broad-based. We see NAND up, we see logic up, we see foundry strong, we see DRAM strong. So we're pretty happy with the fundamentals through '18 and into '19.

謝謝，Atif。我是Dan。讓我先說幾句。 2017年是業界創紀錄的一年。在我們的分析師日上，我們預測2017年和2018年的總銷售額將達到900億美元。 Gary在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，實際銷售額將比這個數字高出數十億美元，而且我們認為2019年的基本面依然強勁。為了分析推動這一成長的因素，我將其歸納為三個面向。首先是需求驅動因素；其次是資本密集度；第三是我們的客戶狀況良好。從需求驅動因素的角度來看，我們正在不斷增加終端市場需求，例如人工智慧、物聯網、大數據和自動駕駛等領域。我們仍然有很大的內容成長空間——手機內容還有很大的成長潛力，而且我們看到對固態硬碟的需求也十分旺盛。因此，縱觀整個產業，需求驅動因素是多元且廣泛的。當我們分析這些因素如何轉化為我們行業內部的實際活動時，我們發現每種類型的設備都表現出強勁的勢頭。整個產業的資本密集度都在上升。在晶圓代工領域，過去幾年成長了100%。同期，NAND快閃記憶體成長了60%，DRAM成長了40%。客戶投入巨大，但也獲得了豐厚的利潤。過去五年，記憶體領域的投資額佔其獲利能力（EBITDA）的比例下降，晶圓代工領域下降了40%，邏輯領域下降了50%。因此，整個生態系統的客戶狀況良好，並將繼續投資，從而獲得投資回報。縱觀整個產業，我認為晶圓代工、邏輯晶片和記憶體之間保持良好的平衡，記憶體可能略佔優勢。在記憶體領域，NAND快閃記憶體約佔三分之二的市場份額，DRAM約佔三分之一。在晶圓代工、邏輯晶片領域，晶圓代工約佔三分之二，邏輯晶片約佔三分之一。 2018年，我們看到了與2017年相同或相似的市場趨勢。因此，我們認為上漲的勢頭是普遍的。 NAND快閃記憶體、邏輯晶片、晶圓代工和DRAM都呈現強勁成長。所以我們對2018年及2019年的基本面都相當樂觀。

Yes, I'll answer the question on Display. Basically, 2 big drivers for Display. One is TVs and the other is mobile OLED. In the large screen televisions, we have 13 factories that we're tracking that are Gen 10.5. And data point for that is if you're building 65-inch televisions with Gen 10.5, large panels, you can get 8 TVs. If you're building that with Gen 8.5, you get 3. So as the consumers are going to larger screens, there -- it's a compelling value proposition to move to Gen 10.5. So that's driving part of the market. And then, of course, for smartphones, OLED is a big factor. And what we see through 2020 in mobile OLED, with the investment that's being made, you'll be able to build about 50%, right around 50% of smartphones with OLED screens in that time frame. So those are the 2 drivers: large screen televisions and mobile OLED. The mix relative to revenue, '17 is more weighted to mobile versus TV. The mix in '18 is pretty balanced between TV and mobile. But again, in both cases, we see these as multiyear drivers for Display. And as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have long lead times for Display, and we see Display-healthy '18 and '19. The only thing I'd mention about Display, is that it's unique for Applied Materials. In expanding our materials innovation into this market, the complexities increasing, and it really has been a great growth driver for the company.

是的，我會回答關於顯示器的問題。基本上，顯示器市場有兩個主要驅動因素。一個是電視，一個是行動OLED。在大螢幕電視領域，我們追蹤了13家採用10.5代面板的工廠。數據顯示，如果使用10.5代面板生產65吋電視，可以生產8台；如果使用8.5代面板，則只能生產3台。因此，隨著消費者轉向更大螢幕，升級到10.5代面板就具有很強的價值吸引力。這推動了部分市場的發展。當然，對於智慧型手機而言，OLED也是一個重要因素。我們預計到2020年，隨著行動OLED領域的投資，屆時將有約50%的智慧型手機採用OLED螢幕。所以，這就是兩大驅動因素：大螢幕電視和行動OLED。從營收組成來看，2017 年行動端相對於電視端的佔比更高。 2018 年，電視端和行動端的佔比則較為均衡。但無論如何，我們都認為這兩種情況將成為未來幾年顯示業務成長的驅動力。正如我們在準備的發言稿中所提到的，顯示業務的開發週期較長，我們預計 2018 年和 2019 年顯示業務將保持健康成長。關於顯示業務，我唯一想補充的是，它對應用材料公司而言具有獨特性。隨著我們將材料創新拓展到這個市場，複雜性也隨之增加，但這確實成為了公司強勁的成長動力。

And your next question comes from Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Last earnings call, you guys articulated a view that total DRAM capacity has been relatively flattish over the past 5 years. And looking into next year, DRAM bit demand looks actually quite strong. You guys articulated some of that on the call. And I would argue for some growth in the installed base capacity in 2018. I think you guys also said last call that it's looking like maybe 75k growth and 50k net add of capacity to the total installed base in DRAM? So I guess the question is, has that view changed? Because we've heard of some potentially new greenfield DRAM programs, and the point here is we just want to make sure that, from your perspective, capacity growth outlook still looks relatively disciplined for this segment of the (inaudible) market.

上次財報電話會議上，你們曾表示過去五年DRAM總產能成長相對穩定。展望明年，DRAM位需求看起來相當強勁。你們在電話會議上也談到了這一點。我認為2018年DRAM裝置容量會有所成長。我記得你們上次電話會議還提到，DRAM總裝置容量可能會成長7.5萬，淨增加5萬？所以我想問的是，你們的看法是否有改變？因為我們聽說了一些潛在的全新DRAM項目，所以想確認一下，從你們的角度來看，這個細分市場的產能成長前景是否仍然相對穩健。

Thanks, Harlan. I think the short answer is yes, we still see a very disciplined market. We've got healthy customers, and the market is being demand-led. We see about 25% bit demand growth, and we see a very disciplined add of incremental bit capacity to match that bit demand growth. So we see, overall, a very healthy market. We see the market being demand-led, customers are healthy, making money, so we're encouraged by what we see. I think the news this year for us, the interesting news, is we increasingly see, in the memory market, adoption of power and performance capabilities in the memory devices, and we see it at both DRAM and NAND, which means our leadership businesses, as I said in my prepared comments, are showing strong growth into the memory market going forward, higher input/output feeds. And the logic periphery that sits around memory cells and DRAM are increasingly adopting logic-like power and performance capabilities. So we're really encouraged by what we see in this market.

謝謝哈蘭。我認為簡而言之，答案是肯定的，我們仍然看到一個非常穩健的市場。我們的客戶都很健康，市場由需求驅動。我們預計比特需求成長約25%，並且我們看到新增比特容量的步伐非常穩健，以匹配這種增長。因此，總體而言，我們看到一個非常健康的市場。市場由需求驅動，客戶獲利狀況良好，因此我們對目前的情況感到鼓舞。我認為今年對我們來說最令人振奮的消息是，在記憶體市場，我們越來越看到儲存裝置在功耗和效能方面得到廣泛應用，DRAM和NAND都是如此。這意味著，正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，我們的核心業務在未來將強勁成長，進軍記憶體市場，實現更高的輸入/輸出吞吐量。圍繞儲存單元和DRAM的邏輯週邊設備也越來越多地採用類似邏輯的功耗和效能功能。因此，我們對目前市場的情況感到非常鼓舞。

And your next question comes from Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had a question on your Display margins. And I guess, this quarter, I was positively surprised by the huge uptick in operating margins in the segment. So I guess the question is, what drove that? Was it something onetime? Or was it simply a function of revenue, or was there something more sustainable and fundamental behind the big uptick? And going forward, how should we think about margins and Display as you start to ramp your new products and as you expand your SAM?

我有一個關於顯示器業務利潤率的問題。本季，該業務類股的營業利潤率大幅提升，著實讓我感到驚喜。我想問的是，是什麼因素推動了這個成長？是一次性因素？還是僅僅得益於營收成長？抑或背後存在著更可持續、更根本的因素？展望未來，隨著新產品上市與銷售及市場規模的擴大，我們該如何看待顯示器業務的利潤率？

Thanks, Toshiya. Yes, so I would look at the scale of the business getting larger, the continual improvements, we put out a target for this business of being high-20s, that's what I would look to longer term out of this business. I think you'll see it profiled differently into Q1 and get stronger throughout next year. But the way to think about this business is high-20s operating margin. We'll obviously look for opportunities to do better, but I think that's the right place to look at.

謝謝，Toshiya。是的，我會專注於業務規模的擴大和持續的改進。我們為這項業務設定的目標是20%以上的營業利潤率，這也是我對這項業務長期發展的目標。我認為你會看到它在第一季呈現出不同的態勢，並在明年持續走強。但這項業務的關鍵在於實現20%以上的營業利益率。我們當然會尋找提升業績的機會，但我認為這才是正確的方向。

And your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的 Krish Sankar。

I had a 2-part question. I'm going to ask both upfront. One is, I think, Dan, you articulated the DRAM supply demand, wondering if you can articulate a similar one for NAND in 2018, if you think demand bit growth will exceed supply bit growth for NAND. And the second part question is that, I completely agree with you on the sustainability of WFE, but that question always comes up every now and then with investors. And if you believe $40-plus-billion or $45 billion is a new norm for WFE, why wouldn't you increase the dividend to reflect that so that it'll put some of these questions to rest?

我有一個包含兩個部分的問題，我打算先問清楚。第一部分是，丹，你之前闡述過DRAM的供需情況，我想問你是否也能闡述一下2018年NAND快閃記憶體的供需情況，以及你是否認為NAND快閃記憶體的需求成長會超過供應成長。第二部分是，我完全同意你關於WFE永續性的觀點，但投資人總是會不時提出這個問題。如果你認為400億美元或450億美元以上是WFE的新常態，為什麼不提高股息來反映這一點，從而消除一些疑慮呢？

Thanks, Krish. From a NAND supply-demand standpoint, I think we see bit demand growing 40% in '17, we see it higher into '18. As you take a look at the capacity adds, today, we've got 1.6 million wafer starts per month of installed capacity, half of that is converted to 3D NAND. We still have half of that install base to go to convert. And so we see, maybe, 1.8 million to 2 million wafer starts per month in the 2020, 2021 time frame. So that market looks demand-led and healthy as well. We see a lot of room to go for solid-state drives. We are in the very early innings of penetration of solid-state drives. Handsets still have lots of content gains to go. As you take a look at the 3D roadmaps going forward, 48 layers, 64 layers, all the way up to 144 layers, the road map extends beyond several generations. And incremental NAND bit growth, in the era of 3D NAND is more challenging. So all of this comes together to give us confidence that we've got a balanced market, opportunity is there and see demand in this market being fairly elastic. So we feel really good about what we see. From a capital allocation dividend perspective, so this company's had a long history and tradition of returning excess cash to shareholders. In the last 5 years, it's been 82%. In the last 3 years, it's been 89%. And we're going to continue to return cash to shareholders. As you take a look at the tax structure and the proportion of cash that gets generated overseas versus onshore, there is a structural impediment to us being more aggressive from a dividend perspective in the near term, but this is something that gets a lot of -- we're spending a lot of time discussing this and we're watching tax policy out of the Washington very closely. And when we get clarity on tax policy, then we'll be able to determine what the right long-term proportion of dividend versus share repurchases so that where we continue to return cash to shareholders in the most efficient optimal way possible to drive value for shareholders.

謝謝 Krish。從 NAND 的供需角度來看，我認為 2017 年位元需求將成長 40%，2018 年還會更高。從產能新增來看，目前我們每月新增晶圓開工量為 160 萬片，其中一半已轉換為 3D NAND。我們還有一半的產能需要轉換。因此，我們預計 2020 年和 2021 年的月新增晶圓開工量可能達到 180 萬到 200 萬片。所以這個市場看起來需求驅動，而且發展良好。固態硬碟 (SSD) 的發展空間很大。我們目前還處於固態硬碟滲透的早期階段。手機的容量還有很大的提升空間。展望未來的 3D 快閃路線圖，從 48 樓、64 樓一直到 144 層，路線圖涵蓋了好幾代產品。在3D NAND時代，NAND位元增量成長更具挑戰性。所有這些因素綜合起來，讓我們相信市場供需平衡，機會就在眼前，而且市場需求彈性相當大。因此，我們對目前的市場狀況感到非常樂觀。從資本配置和分紅的角度來看，本公司一直以來都有將盈餘現金回饋給股東的傳統。過去五年，這一比例為82%；過去三年，這一比例為89%。我們將繼續向股東返還現金。考慮到稅收結構以及海外和境內現金流的比例，短期內我們在分紅方面存在結構性障礙，但我們正在對此進行深入探討，並密切關注華盛頓的稅收政策。當我們明確了稅收政策後，我們就能確定股利與股票回購的長期合理比例，以最有效、最優化的方式繼續向股東返還現金，為股東創造價值。

And your next question comes from Romit Shah from Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題來自野村證券的羅米特·沙阿。

I just wanted to kind of piggyback on C.J.'s question about margins. Dan, you laid out what we felt was conservative gross margin expectations at the Analyst meeting, 47% in 2020. And according to your plans this year, it looks like you'll get pretty close, 46.6%. And you alluded on the call, at least, that you think over time, maybe you could do better. So my question is, really, how high is the ceiling for gross margin?

我只是想藉用一下C.J.關於毛利率的問題。丹，你在分析師會議上給出了我們認為比較保守的毛利率預期，2020年為47%。根據你今年的計劃，看起來應該可以非常接近這個目標，達到46.6%。而且你在電話會議上也暗示過，你認為隨著時間的推移，或許還能做得更好。所以我的問題是，毛利率的上限到底有多高？

Thanks, Romit. I think we'll stand by our model that we put forward at our Analyst Day in 2020. We'll update that model at our next Analyst Day, to the extent there will be new news. And in the meantime, the company is going to be hyper focused on driving strong execution going forward, continuing to look for every opportunity we can to squeeze profitability out of this company and drive value for shareholders. We're off to a good start. If we were to take the current 2017 mix and apply it to the cost structure in 2017 -- I mean, I'm sorry, the cost structure in 2020, the 47% target gross margin would be over 48%. So the progress that we're making as a company, to some extent, will be masked as Display and services outgrow our semi business. But we like having multiple drivers of growth. We like our breadth and just gives us more opportunities to impact this industry in a really positive way, creating value for shareholders.

謝謝羅米特。我認為我們會堅持在2020年分析師日上提出的模型。如果下次分析師日有新的消息，我們會更新這個模型。同時，公司將全力以赴，推動未來強勁的執行力，持續尋找一切機會，提升公司獲利能力，為股東創造價值。我們開局良好。如果我們把2017年的業務組合應用到2017年的成本結構上——喔不，是2020年的成本結構上——那麼47%的目標毛利率將超過48%。因此，由於顯示器和服務業務的成長超過了半導體業務，我們公司的進展在某種程度上會被掩蓋。但我們喜歡擁有多元化的成長動力。我們喜歡這種多元化的業務佈局，它讓我們有更多機會以積極的方式影響這個行業，為股東創造價值。

And your next question comes from the line of Farhan Ahmad from Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的法爾漢·艾哈邁德。

One very simple question. From the level of CapEx that you are seeing currently in NAND and DRAM, what level of bit growth do you expect from the supply-side, for next year?

一個非常簡單的問題。根據您目前在NAND和DRAM領域的資本支出水平，您預計明年供應的比特成長幅度會是多少？

So DRAM, we see about 25% bit growth from a supply perspective. And I would say about 40% to 45% from a NAND perspective.

所以，從供應角度來看，DRAM的位元成長約為25%。而從NAND快閃記憶體的角度來看，我認為成長幅度在40%到45%之間。

And your next question comes from Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

The WFE number keeps going up. And we were at $34 billion not that long ago. Now you're talking about a number that sounds like well north of $45 billion for next year. Is there a level where start to think that we're going to level off or will decline. That it just seems like the ceiling on the supply isn't changing, even though the WFE number is rising a lot. And is that -- did you guys underestimate how expensive this would be to add that amount of capacity? Or just, why are you so comfortable when you talk about this being sustainable out to 2019, when the WFE number has grown by so much?

WFE（木材加工設備）數量持續成長。不久前我們還在340億美元左右。現在你們說的這個數字聽起來明年將遠遠超過450億美元。是否存在一個臨界點，讓我們開始考慮這個數字會趨於平穩或下降？儘管WFE數量大幅成長，但供應上限似乎並沒有改變。你們是不是低估了增加如此龐大產能的成本？或者，為什麼在WFE數量成長如此之大的情況下，你們仍然如此自信地認為這種模式能夠持續到2019年？

Thanks, Joe. I think when we look at what makes the industry healthy where it is today, again, it's diversity of demand drivers, supporting macro trends that are going to unlock significant economic value. Capital intensity is up across the board, customers are investing. But again, they're healthy and profitable. And the industry never went to 450-millimeter wafers. And so for a variety of reasons, we feel very, very good about where we sit. Is there opportunity for upside off these levels? If I had to take an overunder on WFE, I'd say over right now, but it's probably premature to see that. And again, we see the market being demand-led. And when you take a look at things like bit output per dollar invested, that growth is slower. And so it will just accrues benefits to companies that are in our business. And Applied is better positioned than any to capitalize on it.

謝謝喬。我認為，當我們審視當前產業健康發展的原因時，再次強調，是需求驅動因素的多樣性，以及支撐宏觀趨勢的因素，這些趨勢將釋放巨大的經濟價值。資本密集度全面上升，客戶正在加大投資。但再次強調，這些因素都顯示產業健康且有盈利。而且，該產業從未真正進入450毫米晶圓時代。因此，基於種種原因，我們對目前的市場狀況感到非常樂觀。從目前的水平來看，是否存在上漲空間？如果讓我對WFE（晶圓前端設備）的未來走勢做出預測，我會說是上漲，但現在下結論可能為時過早。再次強調，我們認為市場是由需求驅動的。當你觀察每美元投資的比特產量時，你會發現成長速度放緩。因此，這將使我們這個行業的公司受益。而應用材料公司比其他任何公司都更有優勢來把握這一機會。

Yes. Maybe -- let me add something. On kind of where we're at. We went from PC enterprise, everybody has long memories of waiting for the operating system upgrades to mobile and social media, pervasive demand, annual war every holiday season for all of the consumer electronics products. And now we're moving into this AI big data era. And many people talk about their opportunities to create trillions of dollars of economic value, transforming transportation, health care, many major industries. So if you look at what's happened over the last couple of years, the components of that are data generation, data storage and compute. So data generation, you have all of these smart devices and sensors that are growing very fast. And over the last period of time here, you now have foundry -- 40% of foundry spending is in the trailing geometries. And all of these smart devices are continuing to grow, and there's tremendous economic value that's created there. So that's one driver that wasn't there in the past. Then, all of this data is going up at a very high rate. We showed at the investor meeting that memory shipments are tracking data generation, and Dan talked about, memory has never been healthier in terms of overall profitability. There's a tremendous increase in data, capturing all of that information. And then, to really transform those industries, trillions of dollars of economic value, you have to process the data. And at the investor meeting, we talked about oil powering the Industrial Revolution, data powering the AI, the big data revolution. And so again, you have the trailing geometries, you have the leading geometries and the war for the AI architecture is on high-performance computing. You have drivers on the memory, the data storage and the crossover for solid-state drives. So a number of different things that are new drivers. The other thing I would add, it's some small incremental add, is China. We talked about China being up in 2018 in wafer fab equipment spending, by about $2 billion. And what we see is that, we believe that, that investment will continue to go higher in China, not a step function change, but incrementally higher going forward in the future. So you have all of those drivers kind of underpinning where we're at right now. And certainly, we were able to talk about 2018 double-digit growth across all of our different businesses because we have better visibility to customers and all of those drivers and all of their projects. So that also gives us increased confidence.

是的。或許——讓我補充一點。關於我們目前所處的階段。我們從個人電腦企業時代（每個人都還記得苦等作業系統升級的情景），發展到行動和社群媒體時代，需求無所不在，每年假期季節都會爆發消費性電子產品的搶購大戰。而現在，我們正邁入人工智慧大數據時代。許多人都在談論創造數兆美元經濟價值的機會，這將改變交通、醫療保健以及許多其他主要產業。回顧過去幾年的發展，其構成要素包括資料生成、資料儲存和計算。數據生成方面，各種智慧型設備和感測器正在快速成長。在過去的一段時間裡，晶圓代工——40%的晶圓代工支出都集中在後緣幾何形狀上。所有這些智慧型設備都在持續成長，並創造了巨大的經濟價值。這是過去所沒有的一個驅動因素。此外，所有這些數據都在以極高的速度成長。我們在投資者會議上展示了記憶體出貨量與資料產生量同步成長，丹也提到，就整體獲利能力而言，記憶體產業從未如此健康。數據量呈爆炸式增長，需要捕獲所有這些資訊。而要真正改變這些產業，創造數兆美元的經濟價值，就必須處理這些數據。在投資者會議上，我們談到了石油如何驅動工業革命，數據如何驅動人工智慧和大數據革命。因此，我們再次強調，存在後置幾何結構和前置幾何結構，而人工智慧架構的競爭焦點在於高效能運算。記憶體、資料儲存以及固態硬碟的交叉應用都是驅動因素。因此，許多不同的因素都成為了新的驅動力。我還想補充一點，那就是中國。我們提到，2018年中國晶圓製造設備支出成長了約20億美元。我們認為，未來中國的投資將持續成長，雖然不會出現階躍式成長，但會穩定提升。所以，所有這些因素都支撐著我們目前的狀況。當然，我們之所以能夠談到2018年所有業務都實現兩位數成長，是因為我們對客戶、所有驅動因素以及他們的所有專案都有了​​更清晰的了解。這也增強了我們的信心。

And your next question comes from Edwin Mok from Needham.

下一個問題來自 Needham 的 Edwin Mok。

I have a question on the surface size of business. You guys have, obviously, done a great job. Just grew 20% year-over-year. As we go through 2018, given that its growing above what you guys have targeted as 15% target you talked about. Is there a risk that since you signed all these big contract now, that there might be a slower growth rate as we go through 2018? And what -- you mentioned that your 25% increase in service contract. Is there a way to kind of think about how much of your installed base is in the service contract versus how much more room you can grow?

我有一個關於公司規模的問題。你們顯然做得非常出色，比去年同期成長了20%。考慮到2018年的增長超過了你們之前設定的15%的目標，現在你們簽了很多大合同，這是否會導致2018年整體增長速度放緩？另外，你們提到服務合約成長了25%。你們是如何衡量現有客戶群中有多少是服務合約客戶，以及你們還有多少成長空間的呢？

I think over the last several years, we've been growing service contracts net over $1,000 per year. And as we talked about the revenue opportunity for us is dramatically higher when we have the service contracts versus no service contracts. So there was a big change in strategy around 2013. And since then, the service contract growth has been pretty significant. So if you look at what's happening with customers, they're ramping many of these new devices, 3D NAND going to 64 layers and 96 layers. And in the future, they'll be ramping one CDRAM and 7-nanometer in foundry and logic. These technology nodes are very different -- difficult. And we've reorganized service. So we're focused on being able to support our customers and accelerating yield, output and cost. And we have tremendous traction for customer. It's worth a lot of money for them to optimize those big investments they're making in their fabs. We've made changes within the organization, so that we're accelerating those new service products and we have very high confidence that we're going to continue to drive the service that is around the 15% rate. In the last year, as we mentioned, it's been faster than that. But the number that we discussed at the investor meeting, we still have high confidence in is around 15% in terms of the compound annual growth rate.

我認為過去幾年，我們的服務合約淨收入每年增長超過 1000 美元。正如我們之前討論的，擁有服務合約比沒有服務合約能帶來更高的收入機會。因此，我們在 2013 年左右進行了戰略上的重大調整。自那以後，服務合約的成長非常顯著。如果你觀察客戶的情況，你會發現他們正在大規模生產許多新設備，例如 64 樓和 96 樓的 3D NAND。未來，他們還將大規模生產 1 奈米 CDRAM 和 7 奈米製程的邏輯晶片。這些技術節點差異很大，難度也很大。我們已經重組了服務部門，專注於為客戶提供支持，並提高良率、產量和降低成本。我們為客戶帶來了巨大的收益。對他們來說，優化晶圓廠的巨額投資意義重大。我們已對公司內部進行調整，以加快新服務產品的開發，並且我們非常有信心能夠繼續保持約15%的複合年增長率。正如我們之前提到的，去年的成長速度更快。但我們仍然對我們在投資者會議上討論的複合年增長率15%左右充滿信心。

And our next question comes from Patrick Ho from Stifel, Nicolaus.

下一個問題來自 Stifel Nicolaus 的 Patrick Ho。

Maybe for Gary. In terms of your positioning, you talked about, in the past, of share gains you made in areas like etch, process control, and you gave some more color today about areas like patterning. As we look at 2018, and especially with China growing as a percentage of WFE spending, how do you see those share gains moving forward, say, in both 2018 and maybe over the next few years?

或許對 Gary 來說是這樣。就您們的市場定位而言，您過去曾談到在蝕刻、製程控制等領域取得的市場份額增長，今天您又進一步闡述了在圖形化等領域的情況。展望 2018 年，尤其是在中國 WFE 支出佔比不斷增長的情況下，您如何看待這些市場份額的成長在 2018 年以及未來幾年的發展前景？

Thank you, Patrick. So if you look -- if you include this year, over the last 6 years, we've gained share 5 out of the last 6 years, and we were flat one year. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we are anticipating double-digit, strong double-digit growth in our -- both our leadership and high-growth semiconductor businesses. So pretty broad-based. We have very good momentum in memory, we've gained several points of market share in memory over the last several years. Dan talked about the significant growth that we've had, not only in the high-growth SME, but in the leadership products where we have extremely high market share. We've grown in the last few years about $1.5 billion, I think, is the number in additional revenue growth. And we see, as Dan talked about, in memory, moving to more logic-like structures. So all of those leadership products where we have very, very high share in foundry and logic, we're growing significantly our share in memory also. So that gives us one driver. In patterning, we also have gained significant share over the last 5 years. We've gained about 19 points of share in patterning. And what we showed at the investor meeting was another $1 billion growth over the next 4 years in patterning. And we have, again, tremendous momentum there. In foundry, as this war for AI leadership is happening, we are creating the materials that enable power and performance. It's a very unique position. And that is leveraging all of our leadership businesses, all of those areas where we have extremely high share. The power and performance for high-performance computing is coming from Applied Materials. And in China, we talked about $2 billion in growth in China. We have very high share in China. We will outgrow that market growth. It's going to be a fair amount of growth, I don't want to give a specific number, but it's a significant amount of growth for us in China in 2018. And then the last thing I would say that we're really driving that a bigger emphasis in the company is around connectivity. It's worth a lot of money -- it's worth a lot money for our customers to accelerate a new device to market. If you can bring a winning AI chip to market 6 months or 12 months faster, that's worth a lot of money. So we are creating the materials that enable power and performance. We have innovative technologies and modifying materials, removing materials and analyzing materials. We recently made a change in the organization to better drive speed of innovation, and especially, connectivity across the company. We have very strong pull from our leading customers across the board, real strong pull on new materials, new innovative materials. And we're the only place where you can work all of that at the same time. So this focus on connectivity is stronger than we've ever had at Applied, and the pull from customers for connectivity is also very strong. Again, if I can accelerate a chip to market by 12 months, it's worth a tremendous amount of money. We've put a tremendous amount of talent into that organization, and that's another driver in terms of our business going forward.

謝謝帕特里克。所以，如果你把今年也算進去，過去六年裡，我們有五年市佔率都實現了成長，只有一年持平。正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所說，我們預計我們的領先半導體業務和高成長半導體業務都將實現兩位數的強勁成長。所以，我們的業務基礎相當廣泛。我們在記憶體領域勢頭強勁，過去幾年裡，我們的記憶體市場份額已經成長了幾個百分點。丹談到了我們取得的顯著成長，不僅在高成長的中小企業領域，而且在我們市佔率極高的領先產品領域也是如此。我認為，在過去幾年裡，我們的額外收入增加了約15億美元。正如丹所說，我們看到記憶體正在朝向更像邏輯的結構發展。因此，在我們擁有非常高市場份額的所有這些領先產品（包括代工和邏輯裝置）中，我們在記憶體領域的市佔率也在顯著成長。這為我們提供了一個成長動力。在圖案化領域，過去五年我們也取得了顯著的市佔率成長，成長了約19個百分點。我們在投資者會議上展示了未來四年圖案化業務將實現10億美元的成長。我們在該領域再次展現出強勁的發展勢頭。在晶圓代工領域，隨著人工智慧領導地位爭奪戰的展開，我們正在創造能夠提升性能和功率的材料。這是一個非常獨特的優勢。這得益於我們所有領先業務的綜效，以及我們在這些領域擁有極高市佔率的優勢。高效能運算所需的強大性能來自應用材料公司。在中國，我們談到了20億美元的成長。我們在中國擁有非常高的市場份額，我們將超越這一市場成長。這將是一個相當可觀的成長，我不想給出具體數字，但對我們而言，2018年在中國市場將顯著成長。最後，我想強調的是，我們正在大力推動公司在連結性方面的發展。這價值連城－對我們的客戶而言，加速新設備上市意義重大。如果能將一款成功的AI晶片提早6個月或12個月推向市場，價值就非常可觀。因此，我們正在研發能夠提升性能和功率的材料。我們擁有創新技術，並不斷改進、去除和分析現有材料。最近，我們對組織架構進行了調整，以更好地推動創新速度，尤其是在公司內部的互聯互通。我們所有主要客戶都對我們有著強烈的需求，他們對新型創新材料的需求尤其迫切。而我們是唯一一家能夠同時進行所有這些工作的公司。因此，我們對互聯互通的重視程度遠超以往，客戶對互聯互通的需求也同樣強勁。再次強調，如果能將晶片上市時間縮短12個月，價值就非常巨大。我們為此投入了大量人才，這也是推動我們業務未來發展的另一個大動力。

And your next question comes from Tom Diffely from D.A. Davidson & Co.

你的下一個問題來自 D.A. Davidson & Co. 的 Tom Diffely。

You talked a little bit about the increase in OpEx sequentially. And first, I assume that's mainly just in the R&D line. And then, what should we expect from a sequential increase in OpEx going forward?

您剛才提到營運成本較上季成長的情況。首先，我假設這主要體現在研發方面。其次，我們應該預期未來營運成本的環比成長會是什麼樣的？

So when we look at OpEx -- again, the company's done a great job investing for growth, almost all of the OpEx that you see, virtually all of it, is to support R&D programs that drive growth and continue to build out our field force as we bring new innovative products to market, engage with our customers, and drive the right kind of outcomes for the customers. So it's clearly the support growth, new inflections and building up the field force to bring innovative products to market. As we think about the profile throughout the year, I think you could see, we're going to be up into Q2, and then, a little bit into the back half of the year and flat for the back half of the year. So you'll see that grow a little bit throughout the year.

所以，當我們審視營運支出（OpEx）時——再次強調，公司在成長投資方面做得非常出色，幾乎所有營運支出都用於支持研發項目，這些項目能夠推動成長，並持續壯大我們的銷售團隊，以便將創新產品推向市場，與客戶互動，並為客戶帶來理想的成果。因此，很明顯，營運支出用於支持成長、應對新的挑戰以及壯大銷售團隊，從而將創新產品推向市場。展望全年，我認為您可以看到，第二季將有所成長，然後在下半年略有回升，下半年將保持穩定。因此，您會看到全年營運支出將略有成長。

And your next question comes from Sidney Ho from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I have a more near-term question. A few companies have suggested that the first half of the next foundry will be slightly weaker. Do you agree with that? And if you look at the 7-nanometer ramp that those companies think will be as big as the 28-nanometer node, if this is being spread over, say, 4 years and we're halfway through that, does that mean the next 2 years, should we be also looking at kind of flattish foundry spending? Just try to get some color around your comment that foundry spending will be strong next year.

我有一個更近期的問題。一些公司認為，下一代晶圓代工的上半年產能會略有下降。您同意這種說法嗎？如果這些公司認為7奈米製程的產能爬坡規模將與28奈米製程相當，假設這個過程持續四年，而現在已經過半，那麼接下來的兩年晶圓代工支出是否也會趨於平穩？請您詳細解釋一下您關於明年晶圓代工支出將保持強勁的說法。

Thanks, Sidney. Again, as we look at 2017 shaping up to be a record year for this industry, as we look at how we are going to close out the calendar year in November and December, we see significant strength in our business rounding out the calendar year. As we look at the slope throughout 2018, we're confident and encouraged by what we see strength throughout the year. And the fundamentals, again, looked good into 2019. So we feel really good about where we sit, and how things are going to profile. From a foundry perspective, we do see the 7-nanometer node being on par with 28. Our estimation, given the spend that we see on the lagging edge, is 28 is still going to grow. Initially, we thought it was going to land around 320,000 wafer starts per month, but we do see that growing. And when you combine that with 22 optical shrinks off of 28, you're going to get something that tips over 400,000 wafer starts per month. And when we look at 10, 7, and 5, we see something that's going to be on par with what we just said. How it gets profiled, we think 7 is going to be large, and we also think 5 is going to be large as well. So when we look at foundry being strong on a go forward basis, we really like what they see, in terms of uptick in demand, and the diversification of those demand drivers.

謝謝，西德尼。再次強調，2017 年預計將成為該產業創紀錄的一年，展望 11 月和 12 月的收官階段，我們預計業務將在年底保持強勁勢頭。展望 2018 年，我們對全年的發展趨勢充滿信心與鼓舞。而且，基本面在 2019 年也依然良好。因此，我們對目前的狀況以及未來的發展前景感到非常滿意。從代工的角度來看，我們認為 7 奈米節點與 28 奈米節點不相上下。考慮到我們觀察到的落後節點的投入，我們預計 28 奈米節點仍將繼續成長。最初，我們認為其每月晶圓開工量約為 32 萬片，但我們預計這一數字還會成長。如果將 28 奈米節點與 22 奈米節點的光學縮減結合，最終每月晶圓開工量將超過 40 萬片。當我們觀察第10、7和5號節點時，我們發現它們與我們剛才所說的基本一致。根據市場分析，我們認為第7號節點將會非常龐大，第5號節點也是如此。因此，展望未來，我們對晶圓代工產業的強勁發展勢頭非常看好，尤其看好需求成長以及需求驅動因素的多元化。

And your last question comes from Craig Ellis from B. Riley FBR.

最後一個問題來自 B. Riley FBR 的 Craig Ellis。

Gary, I wanted to go back to some of your comments, both in the prepared remarks and in some of the questions around AI. This week, at an industry event, NVIDIA's CEO said that up to 70% of all data center workloads could be AI-enabled. And so the question is, as you're talking to your customers about your pressure this is putting on their capital investment, are you hearing that this is a gradual force through 10-, 7- and 5-nanometer? Or do they see a step function coming at any one of those nodes? Or more of an investment in either logic or memory, where there are diversified suppliers?

Gary，我想回到你之前的一些發言，包括你事先準備好的演講稿和一些關於人工智慧的問題。本週，在產業活動上，NVIDIA 的 CEO 表示，高達 70% 的資料中心工作負載都可以實現人工智慧賦能。所以問題是，當你和客戶討論人工智慧對他們資本投資帶來的壓力時，你是否聽到他們說這種壓力會隨著 10 奈米、7 奈米和 5 奈米製程的推進而逐漸增強？還是說他們認為在某個製程節點上會出現質的飛躍？或者他們更傾向於在邏輯或記憶體方面進行更多投資，因為這些領域有多種供應商可供選擇？

Thanks for the question. Again, what we're seeing is, if you look at the data generation, already, we see a big impact in terms of wafer fab equipment spending in sensors, in those trailing edge geometries, smart everything. We see about 40% of foundry spending coming from those sources, and we think that's going to continue. And then, the increase in data, again, you have to capture the data before you can process it and create the value. We're certainly seeing tremendous increase in data. That's driving a healthier memory business than we've ever seen. And for high-performance computing, the key thing about Applied Materials is that we create the materials that enable high-performance computing. Our leadership businesses, if you look at epi and PVD and implant and the advanced process, all of those areas we have very, very high market share. So the pull that we have with customers is tremendous. The visibility that we have around those structures for 7-nanometers, for 5-nanometers is very unique, and that we have -- we're creating those materials. So the pull for us is very, very strong. I think the -- and the architecture war that's happening in AI isn't over. There's a lot of companies that are designing specific AI chips for different kinds of applications, so there's a tremendous amount of activity there. And we think that, that will ramp a significant amount over time.

感謝您的提問。再次強調，我們觀察到，從數據生成的角度來看，晶圓製造設備在感測器、後緣幾何結構以及智慧化方面的支出已經受到了顯著影響。我們看到，代工廠約 40% 的支出來自這些領域，我們認為這種趨勢將會持續下去。此外，資料量的成長也不容忽視，因為必須先收集資料才能進行處理並創造價值。我們確實看到了數據量的爆炸性增長。這推動了記憶體業務前所未有的健康發展。對於高效能運算而言，應用材料的關鍵在於我們能夠製造出支援高效能運算的材料。我們的領先業務，例如外延、物理氣相沉積、離子注入和先進工藝，在所有這些領域都擁有非常高的市場份額。因此，我們對客戶的吸引力非常強大。我們在 7 奈米和 5 奈米製程結構方面的可見性非常獨特，而且我們正在製造這些材料。所以對我們來說，這種吸引力非常非常強。我認為人工智慧領域的架構之爭遠未結束。很多公司都在為不同的應用場景設計特定的人工智慧晶片，所以這個領域非常活躍。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這種活躍度還會顯著提升。

Well, thanks, Craig. And Dan, would you like to add anything in closing?

謝謝，克雷格。丹，你最後還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. If I could, I want to say that this in an incredibly exciting time for me, our company, and the industry as a whole. Applied is a unique position and our breadth sets us apart. It allows us to drive the most inflections, and it generate the most growth opportunities.

是的，謝謝你，麥克。如果可以的話，我想說，這對我個人、我們公司以及整個產業來說都是一個無比令人興奮的時刻。 Applied 的獨特地位和廣泛的業務範圍使我們脫穎而出。這使我們能夠引領最多的變革，並創造最多的成長機會。

The company is executing extremely well. We're delivering record performance. But we're not going to be satisfied. We're not going to rest on what we did last quarter or last year. We're going to be relentlessly focused at driving execution. We're going to continue to make smart R&D investments to drive our organic growth. We're going to continuously improve our operations. We're going to look for more ways to increase gross margins, deliver more value to our shareholders, and we're going to continually drive spend discipline throughout all levels of this company. This execution is delivering great momentum for us.

公司執行力非常出色，業績屢創新高。但我們不會就此滿足，不會止步於上個季度或去年的成就。我們將繼續全力以赴，提升執行力。我們將持續加大研發投入，推動內生成長。我們將不斷改善運營，尋求更多途徑提高毛利率，為股東創造更多價值，並在公司各個層面持續推行支出控制。這種高效的執行力正為我們帶來強勁的發展動能。

We're ending the year with record backlog and record orders in the year. We're going to expect double-digit growth across all of our businesses going into 2018. Personally, I look forward to seeing many of you, Credit Suisse, in a week and a half, at CES to start the new year.

我們以創紀錄的積壓訂單和年度訂單量結束了這一年。我們預計2018年所有業務都將達到兩位數成長。我個人非常期待在一周半後的CES展會上與瑞士信貸的各位相聚，共同開啟新的一年。

And I guess, lastly, for those of you who call Boston home, please make sure you give a warm Boston welcome to our friends from the Golden State, when they roll into town tonight for what is going to be an amazing game.

最後，我想對那些以波士頓為家的朋友們說，今晚金州的朋友們來到波士頓，一定會帶來一場精彩的比賽，請務必給予他們熱烈的波士頓式歡迎。

With that, I wanted to thank you for joining us today and giving us your support. Thank you.

最後，我要感謝各位今天蒞臨現場並給予我們支持。謝謝。

Thanks, Dan. We'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of our call is going to be available on our website by 5:00 p.m. Pacific Time, and we'd like to thank everybody for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

謝謝丹。感謝各位今天參與我們的電話會議。太平洋時間下午5點前，您可以在我們的網站上收聽本次電話會議的錄音回放。感謝大家一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束，您可以掛斷電話了。