應用材料 (AMAT) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把會議交給邁克爾·沙利文。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Mike Sullivan, Head of Investor Relations at Applied Materials. We appreciate you joining us for our third quarter of fiscal 2017 earnings call, which is being recorded.

大家下午好。我是應用材料公司投資者關係主管麥克·沙利文。感謝您參加我們2017財年第三季財報電話會議，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; Bob Halliday, our current Chief Financial Officer; and Dan Durn, who will be our next Chief Financial Officer.

與我一同出席的有：我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson；我們現任財務長 Bob Halliday；以及即將擔任我們下一任財務長的 Dan Durn。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's current view of its industries, product road map, share positions, revenue growth, profitability and business outlook. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance. Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections and assumptions as of August 17, 2017, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

在開始之前，請允許我提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括應用材料公司目前對其所在行業的看法、產品路線圖、市場份額、收入增長、盈利能力和業務前景。這些聲明存在風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異，且不構成對未來績效的保證。有關這些風險和不確定性的資訊包含在 Applied 向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理階層截至 2017 年 8 月 17 日的估計、預測和假設，Applied 公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP調整後的財務指標。與 GAAP 指標的調節表包含在今天的獲利新聞稿和我們的調節表幻燈片中，這些幻燈片可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

現在我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike. With revenue and profits at all-time highs, I'm pleased to report that Applied Materials has now delivered earnings records for the past 5 quarters. We have tremendous momentum and a very positive outlook for the future. Our markets are growing with a broader set of demand drivers. Across a wide variety of industries, companies are making huge investments to drive transformative changes that shift economic value towards technology. At the very foundation of these emerging trends is Applied and we are playing a larger and more valuable role advancing the innovation road maps in semiconductor and display. Our broad portfolio of technologies and businesses, combined with our strategy and investments, means that Applied has never been in a better position. This gives me confidence that we will continue to expand our available opportunity, gain share and outperform our markets.

謝謝你，麥克。應用材料公司營收和利潤均創歷史新高，我很高興地宣布，該公司已連續五個季度創下獲利紀錄。我們發展勢頭強勁，對未來充滿信心。我們的市場正在成長，需求驅動因素也更加多元化。在各個行業，公司都在進行巨額投資，以推動變革性變化，將經濟價值轉移到技術領域。應用半導體是這些新興趨勢的基礎，我們在推進半導體和顯示領域的創新路線圖方面發揮更大、更有價值的作用。我們廣泛的技術和業務組合，加上我們的策略和投資，意味著應用材料公司從未處於如此有利的地位。這讓我相信，我們將繼續擴大現有機會，贏得市場份額，並在市場中取得優異成績。

In today's call, I'll outline key industry trends as well as our strategy for sustainable, profitable growth. I'll then provide additional details about our markets and major businesses. Bob will then discuss how we're translating our broad portfolio of capabilities and products into differentiated performance for Applied. And after that, Dan will provide his initial impressions about our future opportunities as well as our outlook for the next quarter.

在今天的電話會議中，我將概述關鍵的行業趨勢以及我們實現可持續盈利成長的策略。接下來，我將提供有關我們市場和主要業務的更多詳細資訊。接下來，鮑伯將討論我們如何將我們廣泛的能力和產品組合轉化為應用科技的差異化表現。之後，丹將分享他對我們未來機會的初步看法以及對下一季的展望。

I'll start with the backdrop for today's discussion. These are incredibly exciting times for Applied, and I strongly believe that we have more opportunities today than at any point in our history. There are 3 main reasons for this. First, our markets are strong and getting stronger. Pervasive demand for electronics means that our markets are getting larger and substantially less cyclical. New demand drivers are emerging that layer on top of traditional computing and mobility. The Internet of Things, big data and artificial intelligence will transform industries over the coming years.

我先介紹一下今天要討論的背景。對於應用材料公司來說，這是一個令人無比令人興奮的時代，我堅信，我們今天所擁有的機會比公司歷史上任何時期都多。造成這種情況主要有三個原因。首先，我們的市場強勁且正在走強。電子產品的普遍需求意味著我們的市場規模越來越大，週期性波動也大大降低。在傳統運算和行動技術之上，正在湧現新的需求驅動因素。未來幾年，物聯網、大數據和人工智慧將改變各行各業。

In health care, transportation, manufacturing and retail, competition is increasingly dependent on capturing, transmitting, understanding and storing data and images. In these industries and many more, value is shifting towards semiconductors and displays. To realize the potential of IoT, big data and AI, major technology inflections are needed to advance the road maps in logic, memory and display. These inflections are enabled by materials innovation, and as the leader in materials engineering, Applied has a fundamental role to play.

在醫療保健、交通運輸、製造業和零售業，競爭越來越依賴資料的收集、傳輸、理解和儲存。在這些行業以及更多其他行業中，價值正在轉移到半導體和顯示器。要實現物聯網、大數據和人工智慧的潛力，需要進行重大的技術變革，以推進邏輯、儲存和顯示領域的路線圖。這些轉變得益於材料創新，而作為材料工程的領導者，應用材料公司發揮著至關重要的作用。

Second, Applied is better positioned than ever before. We've aligned the company around our innovation leadership strategy, and we've made significant investments to accelerate R&D. We have developed a strong portfolio of differentiated products, with more in the pipeline. It's the company's breadth and depth of products and capabilities that sets us apart from the competition. We have, by far, the largest exposure to industry inflections, and we're combining our skill sets in deposition, removal, materials modification, inspection and metrology to deliver innovative, new solutions.

其次，Applied公司目前的處境比以往任何時候都要好。我們已圍繞創新領導策略調整了公司方向，並進行了大量投資以加速研發。我們已經開發出一系列差異化產品，並且還有更多產品正在研發中。公司產品和能力的廣度和深度使我們從競爭對手中脫穎而出。我們迄今為止接觸產業變革的機會最多，我們將沉積、去除、材料改質、檢測和計量方面的技能結合起來，提供創新的新解決方案。

Third, we built a platform that gives us sustainable advantages over the long term. We've done this by strengthening our technical and management teams and putting in place a company-wide operating system, the Product Development Engine, that delivers repeatable success. Across the organization, I see stronger execution. Our product success rate is higher, we are transferring new technology to market faster and we're using our breadth more effectively.

第三，我們建立了一個能為我們帶來長期永續優勢的平台。我們透過加強技術和管理團隊，並建立公司範圍內的作業系統——產品開發引擎——來實現這一目標，該系統能夠帶來可重複的成功。我看到整個組織內部的執行力都更強了。我們的產品成功率更高，我們更快地將新技術推向市場，並且我們更有效地利用了我們的廣泛資源。

I'll now describe the major inflections and investments within our markets. In memory, near-term market fundamentals remain strong, driven by high-performance storage for data centers and increasing smartphone content to support new features, including 3D cameras. We expect healthy investment in memory to continue as the explosion of data storage requirements created by IoT, big data, AI and streaming video has only just begun. To keep up with demand, customers are aggressively pursuing their 3D NAND scaling road map, which has 4 major levers: increasing the number of pairs, shrinking film and stack heights, multi-tier schemes and lateral scaling. All these approaches are enabled by advanced materials engineering and expand Applied's opportunity.

接下來，我將介紹我們市場的主要轉捩點和投資方向。在儲存領域，近期市場基本面依然強勁，這主要得益於資料中心的高效能儲存需求以及智慧型手機內容不斷增加以支援新功能（包括 3D 相機）。我們預計，隨著物聯網、大數據、人工智慧和串流媒體影片帶來的資料儲存需求爆炸性成長才剛開始，對記憶體的投資將繼續保持健康水準。為了滿足市場需求，客戶正在積極推進其 3D NAND 擴展路線圖，該路線圖有 4 個主要槓桿：增加鍵對數量、縮小薄膜和堆疊高度、多層方案和橫向擴展。所有這些方法都得益於先進的材料工程，並擴大了應用材料公司的機會。

In foundry, market dynamics are equally healthy. In the near term, we see capacity additions at trailing geometries to meet growing demand for sensors and IoT devices as well as strong investment in the leading edge. Looking ahead, advances in artificial intelligence are beginning to drive significant architectural changes, and customers are positioning themselves to win the major inflections in high-performance computing. In data centers designed for AI workloads, we see logic content growing at least twice as fast as memory. And as technology complexity increases, capital intensity is also growing about twice the rate of memory.

在鑄造業，市場動態同樣健康。短期來看，我們將增加後部幾何結構的產能，以滿足對感測器和物聯網設備日益增長的需求，同時增加對尖端技術的投資。展望未來，人工智慧的進步正開始推動重大的架構變革，客戶正在為贏得高效能運算領域的重大轉折點做好準備。在專為 AI 工作負載設計的資料中心中，我們發現邏輯內容的成長速度至少是記憶體的兩倍。隨著技術複雜性的增加，資本密集度的成長速度大約是記憶體成長速度的兩倍。

In foundry, logic and DRAM, dimensional scaling of devices remains a challenge, with 2 primary areas of focus: resolution and placement accuracy. New innovations in patterning are becoming increasingly important as customers move to advanced nodes. First, self-aligned multi-patterning techniques, SADP and SAQP, are needed in conjunction with EUV lithography to drive the resolution road map. Regardless of the rate of EUV adoption, we expect our opportunity in traditional multi-patterning to grow. Applied has great momentum in this market and has gained 16 points of share since 2012. Second, new patterning approaches are being developed to address placement errors. As devices scale, the accuracy of vertical alignment between interconnect layers has a significant impact on performance and reliability. Placement errors cannot be addressed by advanced lithography alone and will require materials-enabled solutions. Applied has unique technology in this area, and we expect our opportunity to grow significantly over the next several nodes.

在晶圓代工、邏輯晶片和DRAM領域，裝置的尺寸縮小仍然是一個挑戰，主要關注兩個方面：解析度和放置精度。隨著客戶向更先進的節點過渡，圖案化的新創新變得越來越重要。首先，需要將自對準多重圖案化技術（SADP 和 SAQP）與 EUV 微影技術結合，以推動解析度路線圖的實現。無論 EUV 技術的普及速度如何，我們預計在傳統多圖案化領域的機會將會成長。Applied 在這個市場發展勢頭強勁，自 2012 年以來市佔率已成長 16 個百分點。其次，正在開發新的圖案設計方法來解決放置錯誤問題。隨著裝置尺寸的縮小，互連層之間垂直對準的精度對效能和可靠性有顯著的影響。單靠先進的微影技術無法解決放置誤差問題，需要藉助材料方面的解決方案。Applied 在該領域擁有獨特的技術，我們預計在接下來的幾個節點中，我們的機會將顯著成長。

Looking at the market as a whole, our outlook is incrementally more positive. We now believe that wafer fab equipment spending for the calendar year will be up 20% or more compared to 2016. We also expect 2018 spending to be higher than our current estimate for 2017. And in these forecasts, we made conservative estimates for spending in China. In addition, within wafer fab equipment, the ongoing shift to materials-enabled solutions in memory and logic opens up new opportunities for Applied. We now address 64% of the total market compared to 53% in 2012. Beyond semiconductor, our outlook for the display market has also strengthened. Display is growing even faster than wafer fab equipment as customers make multiyear investments to address large inflections in both TV and mobile. In TV, a major push to new Gen 10.5 substrates is underway. These huge 10-square-meter substrates are ideally suited for manufacturing larger format screens, 60 inches and bigger. We now expect 13 new Gen 10.5 factories to be built over the next several years. At the same time, mobile OLED investment is getting stronger as customers prepare for broad adoption of OLED in smartphones. OLED enables new form factors that result in a larger display area per smartphone, further expanding the overall market.

從整體市場來看，我們的前景逐漸變得更加樂觀。我們現在認為，本年度晶圓製造設備支出將比 2016 年成長 20% 或更多。我們也預期 2018 年的支出將高於我們目前對 2017 年的估計。在這些預測中，我們對中國的支出做出了保守估計。此外，在晶圓製造設備領域，記憶體和邏輯元件向材料賦能解決方案的持續轉變，為應用材料公司開闢了新的機會。我們現在佔據了 64% 的市場份額，而 2012 年這一比例為 53%。除了半導體產業之外，我們對顯示器市場的前景也更加樂觀。由於客戶進行多年投資以應對電視和行動裝置領域的巨大變革，顯示器設備的成長速度甚至超過了晶圓製造設備。在電視領域，向新一代第 10.5 代基板的大規模推廣正在進行中。這些巨大的 10 平方米基板非常適合製造 60 吋及以上的大尺寸螢幕。我們現在預計未來幾年將新建 13 座第 10.5 代工廠。同時，隨著消費者準備在智慧型手機中廣泛採用 OLED 技術，行動 OLED 領域的投資也不斷增加。OLED 技術實現了新的外形設計，使得每部智慧型手機的顯示面積更大，從而進一步擴大了整體市場。

I'll now provide brief updates for our major business groups. Our semiconductor leadership businesses, where we have strong market share and highly differentiated products, are having an outstanding year, fueled by investment in leading-edge foundry and expanding applications in memory. Demand for our PVD and CMP products is especially strong. We expect the PVD market to grow by around 45% in 2017 as foundry customers adopt new interconnect technology. And the CMP market is on track to grow 40% this year on top of 40% growth in 2016. Our CMP revenues were at an all-time high this quarter and on track to exceed $1 billion for the fiscal year. In our semiconductor growth businesses, we have great momentum in markets that are growing rapidly. Over the past several years, we have gained significant market share in both etch and CVD. Our combined etch and CVD revenues are at record levels, and we're in a great position to drive further growth.

接下來我將簡要報告我們主要業務部門的最新情況。我們在半導體領域的領先業務，憑藉強大的市場份額和高度差異化的產品，今年取得了卓越的成績，這得益於對尖端晶圓代工的投資和在記憶體領域不斷擴大的應用。市場對我們的PVD和CMP產品需求特別強勁。我們預計，隨著代工廠客戶採用新的互連技術，PVD 市場在 2017 年將成長約 45%。CMP市場今年預計在2016年成長40%的基礎上再成長40%。本季我們的 CMP 營收創歷史新高，預計在本財年超過 10 億美元。在我們的半導體成長業務領域，我們在快速成長的市場中擁有強勁的發展勢頭。過去幾年，我們在蝕刻和 CVD 領域都獲得了顯著的市場份額。我們的蝕刻和 CVD 業務總收入已達到創紀錄水平，我們處於有利地位，可以推動進一步成長。

Service is an important part of Applied's portfolio that has grown significantly. This year, we're seeing an acceleration of that growth. We delivered record performance this quarter, and for the year, we expect revenues to be up more than 15% over 2016. Demand for our service solutions is driven by our rapidly growing installed base, plus our customers' need to shorten ramp times, improve device performance and yield and rapidly optimize their factory output and operating costs. We are investing to expand the services we offer, and we are confident in our ability to sustain our growth in this business. In display, as technologies and manufacturing are becoming more complex, Applied is in a unique position to enable the road map. This year, display revenues are on track to increase more than 50% over 2016. And based on our strong position, we expect to grow display at least another 30% in 2018.

服務是 Applied 公司業務組合的重要組成部分，且成長顯著。今年，我們看到這種成長速度加快了。本季我們取得了創紀錄的業績，預計全年營收將比 2016 年成長 15% 以上。我們服務解決方案的需求源自於我們快速成長的裝置容量，以及客戶縮短啟動時間、提高設備效能和良率、快速優化工廠產量和營運成本的需求。我們正在投資拓展我們提供的服務，我們有信心在這個行業中保持成長。在顯示領域，隨著技術和製造變得越來越複雜，應用材料公司在實現發展路線圖方面具有獨特的優勢。今年，顯示器收入預計將比 2016 年成長 50% 以上。基於我們強大的市場地位，我們預期 2018 年展示業務至少再成長 30%。

Before I hand the call over to Bob, I'll quickly summarize. Applied is executing well, setting new records, growing our available market and gaining market share. I would like to thank our employees for their passion to create value for customers and Applied. I'm confident that together, we will raise the bar further. Applied is in a great position, working at the sweet spot of major trends that will drive tremendous shifts in economic value over the coming years. Finally, our breadth and depth differentiate us from our competitors. We have wider exposure to major industry inflections, and we are bringing together the broadest skill set and technology portfolio to create new solutions for our customers and accelerate innovation.

在把電話交給鮑伯之前，我先快速總結一下。Applied 公司運作良好，不斷創造新紀錄，擴大可用市場並提高市場佔有率。我要感謝我們的員工，感謝他們為客戶和Applied公司創造價值的熱情。我相信，我們齊心協力，一定能有更大的成就。Applied 目前處於非常有利的地位，它正處於推動未來幾年經濟價值發生巨大變化的主要趨勢的最佳交匯點。最後，我們的廣度和深度使我們有別於競爭對手。我們更廣泛地接觸到產業重大變革，並彙集了最廣泛的技能組合和技術組合，為客戶創造新的解決方案，加速創新。

Now let me hand the call over to Bob.

現在我把電話交給鮑伯。

Thanks, Gary. Today, I'll add my comments about the business environment, describe how our capabilities and products are driving competitive and financial performance and invite Dan to share his perspective, along with our Q4 guidance.

謝謝你，加里。今天，我將就商業環境發表一些看法，闡述我們的能力和產品如何推動競爭和財務業績，並邀請丹分享他的觀點以及我們第四季度的業績指引。

As you contemplate the markets, including record levels of demand for semiconductors and displays, I'd like you to note 3 things. First, I feel increasingly confident that our markets are becoming materially and sustainably larger. Gary explained the big picture, and I'll add some data regarding the nearer-term environment.

當您思考市場狀況時，包括半導體和顯示器創紀錄的需求水平，我想請您注意以下三點。首先，我越來越有信心，我們的市場正在實質地、永續地擴大。Gary 解釋了大局，我將補充一些關於近期環境的數據。

In semiconductor, 2/3 of NAND demand is driven by smartphones and SSDs. NAND demand for these devices is projected to grow by more than 40% in 2017 and 2018. Smartphones and servers drive the majority of the DRAM market. And demand from these devices should be up by 30% or more in both 2017 and 2018. In foundry, our largest customer recently announced that its 7-nanometer tapeout expectations have nearly doubled. And we continue to see new investment at trailing geometries as well. So the largest drivers of WFE demand are strong.

在半導體產業，2/3 的 NAND 需求是由智慧型手機和固態硬碟驅動的。預計 2017 年和 2018 年，這些設備的 NAND 需求將成長超過 40%。智慧型手機和伺服器佔據了DRAM市場的大部分份額。預計 2017 年和 2018 年，這些設備的需求量將增加 30% 或更多。在晶圓代工領域，我們最大的客戶最近宣布，其 7 奈米製程的流片預期幾乎翻了一番。我們也看到對尾部幾何形狀的新投資不斷增加。因此，WFE需求的最大驅動因素依然強勁。

In display, OLED is quickly becoming the preferred technology for leading brands. Yet, the installed capacity supports less than 40% of the smartphone market. And the increasing technical complexity in semi and display gives us a growing opportunity in services. In short, I expect sustainable growth for our markets and particularly for Applied.

在顯示器領域，OLED正迅速成為領先品牌的首選技術。然而，目前的裝置容量僅能滿足不到40%的智慧型手機市場需求。半導體和顯示器技術的日益複雜化為我們在服務領域帶來了越來越多的機會。簡而言之，我預計我們的市場，特別是應用科技市場，將實現永續成長。

Second, Applied is uniquely well positioned in this improving environment, and we're driving growth and competitive performance across our markets. Applied has incredible breadth and we're taking advantage of it across our semi and display businesses to help our customers solve their highest-value problems, with solutions based on unique combinations of our technologies. The investments we've made in our new product pipeline are already impacting the market. In 2017, we're delivering strong, double-digit revenue growth in every semiconductor device type. We project our share to be up for the sixth year in a row. And our share is balanced, at greater than 22% across memory, logic and foundry.

其次，Applied 在這種不斷改善的環境中擁有獨特的優勢，我們正在各個市場推動成長和競爭優勢。Applied 擁有令人難以置信的廣泛性，我們正在半導體和顯示器業務中充分利用這一優勢，透過基於我們獨特技術組合的解決方案，幫助客戶解決他們最有價值的問題。我們在新產品研發方面的投資已經開始對市場產生影響。2017年，我們在所有半導體裝置類型中都實現了強勁的兩位數營收成長。我們預計我們的市場份額將連續第六年增長。我們的市佔率也很均衡，在記憶體、邏輯和代工領域均超過 22%。

In patterning, we see continued growth and share gains because we're shipping newly designed products that address both line shrinks and edge placement errors. We've also put our services business on a growth trajectory, adding $1 billion in annualized revenues since 2013. And we built a unique and more diverse growth engine in display. In 2012 and 2013, our annual display revenue averaged $657 million. We expect to deliver a similar amount in the current quarter. Our display business is also becoming more profitable, and we're now targeting operating margins in the high 20s. So Applied has the broadest capability, largest served market opportunity and strongest new product pipeline of any company in the industry.

在圖案設計方面，我們看到了持續成長和市場份額的提升，因為我們正在推出新設計的產品，這些產品既解決了線條縮水問題，也解決了邊緣定位錯誤問題。我們也讓服務業務走上了成長軌道，自 2013 年以來，年化收入增加了 10 億美元。我們在展示領域打造了一個獨特且更加多元化的成長引擎。2012 年和 2013 年，我們的年度顯示器收入平均為 6.57 億美元。我們預計本季將交付類似數量的產品。我們的顯示器業務也變得越來越有利可圖，我們現在的目標是營業利潤率達到 20% 以上。因此，Applied 擁有業界最廣泛的能力、最大的服務市場機會和最強大的新產品研發管線。

Third, and perhaps best of all, Applied's innovation engine and operating discipline are driving higher profitability. The value that our technology brings to the industry is increasing, and that's reflected in our gross margin, which has grown by 5 points over the past 5 years. In Q3, our gross margin was the highest in 9 years. At the same time, we remain focused on expense control. In Q3, our non-GAAP OpEx-to-sales ratio was 17.9%, a record low. As a result, we delivered our first quarter with $1 billion in operating profit, and we had record cash from operations equal to 36% of revenue.

第三，或許也是最重要的一點，Applied 的創新引擎和營運紀律正在推動更高的獲利能力。我們的技術為產業帶來的價值正在不斷增長，這體現在我們的毛利率上，在過去 5 年裡，我們的毛利率增加了 5 個百分點。第三季度，我們的毛利率達到了9年來的最高水準。同時，我們將繼續專注於成本控制。第三季度，我們的非GAAP營運支出與銷售額比為17.9%，創歷史新低。因此，我們第一季實現了 10 億美元的營業利潤，且經營活動產生的現金流創歷史新高，佔營收的 36%。

Next, I'll comment on our Q3 performance on a year-over-year basis. We grew company revenue by 33% and non-GAAP gross margin by 2.9 points. We grew non-GAAP operating profit by 67% and increased non-GAAP operating margins by 5.9 points to a 16-year high of 28.7%. And we grew non-GAAP EPS by 72% to a record of $0.86 per share.

接下來，我將對我們第三季的業績進行年比分析。公司營收成長了 33%，非 GAAP 毛利率成長了 2.9 個百分點。非GAAP營業利潤成長了67%，非GAAP營業利潤率提高了5.9個百分點，達到16年來的最高點28.7%。我們的非GAAP每股收益成長了72%，達到創紀錄的每股0.86美元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We grew cash and investments to $8.3 billion, and 40% was onshore. We repurchased 9 million shares of our stock and returned $482 million to shareholders, including dividends.

接下來看一下資產負債表。我們的現金和投資成長至 83 億美元，其中 40% 為境內投資。我們回購了 900 萬股股票，並向股東返還了 4.82 億美元，其中包括股息。

Turning now to our segment performance on a year-over-year basis. We grew semiconductor systems revenue by 42% to a record $2.5 billion and grew non-GAAP operating profit dollars to a record of $920 million. We grew services revenue by 20% to a record $786 million and increased non-GAAP operating profit dollars to a record of $215 million. We grew display revenue by 31% and increased non-GAAP operating margin by 2.6 points.

現在來看看我們各業務板塊的年比業績。我們的半導體系統營收成長了 42%，達到創紀錄的 25 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利潤也成長至創紀錄的 9.2 億美元。我們的服務收入成長了 20%，達到創紀錄的 7.86 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利潤也成長至創紀錄的 2.15 億美元。我們的顯示器收入成長了 31%，非 GAAP 營業利潤率提高了 2.6 個百分點。

In summary, I'm proud of the accomplishments of our teams, and I'm pleased with our top and bottom line growth. Applied's innovation engine is delivering sustainable momentum for profitable growth.

總而言之，我為我們團隊的成就感到自豪，並對我們的營收和利潤成長感到滿意。應用科技的創新引擎正在為獲利成長提供可持續的動力。

Now I'll hand the call over to Dan.

現在我把電話交給丹。

Thanks, Bob and Gary and the entire team here at Applied Materials. You've given me a warm welcome and a great introduction to the technologies we're preparing to launch into a growing market for our products. I'm incredibly impressed by the depth of our technical talent. Applied has a world-class team, and I believe we can do anything we set our minds to.

感謝鮑勃、加里以及應用材料公司的全體團隊成員。你們熱情地接待了我，並向我詳細介紹了我們即將推出的、面向不斷成長的產品市場的技術。我對我們技術人才的深度感到非常驚訝。Applied 擁有一支世界一流的團隊，我相信只要我們下定決心，就沒有什麼做不到的。

Gary and Bob talked about new advances in technology that are going to make dramatic change to our industries and to our lives. I saw this unfolding at my previous companies, and I'm excited to be here because these changes are enabled by semiconductors and displays, which begin with what we do at Applied Materials. I'll share more of my impressions about Applied at our Analyst Day in New York.

加里和鮑伯討論了科技領域的新進步，這些進步將為我們的產業和生活帶來巨大變化。我在之前的公司就看到了這種變化，我很高興來到這裡，因為這些變化是由半導體和顯示器推動的，而這一切都始於我們在應用材料公司所做的工作。我將在紐約舉行的分析師日活動上分享更多關於Applied公司的印象。

One thing that's already clear to me as a financial person is that Applied has a tremendous portfolio. The leadership semi businesses Gary talked about have some of the strongest product positions and profitability I've seen anywhere in this industry. The semiconductor growth businesses Gary mentioned are dramatically outpacing their markets. Etch is up 5x over the past 5 years, growing at 2.5x the rate of the market, and that's just one example. Display is growing faster than semi, and we have technologies in the pipeline that will enable us to grow beyond what we can do in OLED smartphones and LCD TVs. And services are a great way to drive growth and diversify the company in areas that are particularly stable and cash-generative. Applied's portfolio is incredibly valuable. I'm excited to be a part of this team, and I'll use all of my energy to help drive Applied's innovation engine and growth.

身為一名金融從業人員，我很清楚的一點是，Applied 擁有非常強大的投資組合。Gary 提到的那些領先的半導體企業擁有我在這個行業中見過的最強大的產品地位和盈利能力。Gary提到的半導體成長型企業正以驚人的速度超越其所在市場的成長速度。過去 5 年，蝕刻技術的價格上漲了 5 倍，成長速度是市場平均值的 2.5 倍，這只是其中一個例子。顯示器產業的發展速度比半導體產業更快，我們正在研發的技術將使我們能夠超越OLED智慧型手機和LCD電視的現有水準。服務業是推動公司成長和實現公司多元化發展的絕佳途徑，尤其是在那些特別穩定且能產生現金流的領域。Applied 的產品組合極具價值。我很榮幸能成為這個團隊的一員，我將竭盡全力幫助推動應用材料的創新引擎和發展。

Now I'll provide our fourth quarter guidance. In Q4, we expect our overall revenue to be in the range of $3.85 billion to $4 billion. The midpoint would be up nearly 19% year-over-year. We expect our semiconductor systems revenue to increase by about 14% year-over-year. We expect services revenue to grow about 17% year-over-year. And display revenue should be up by about 48% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP gross margin of about 46%. Non-GAAP operating expenses should be $685 million, plus or minus $10 million. And we expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $0.86 to $0.94, the midpoint of which would be up by 36% year-over-year.

現在我將提供我們第四季的業績預期。我們預計第四季總營收將在 38.5 億美元至 40 億美元之間。中間值將比上年同期上漲近 19%。我們預計半導體系統營收將年增約 14%。我們預計服務收入將年增約 17%。顯示器收入預計將年增約 48%。我們預計非GAAP毛利率約為46%。非GAAP營運費用應為6.85億美元，上下浮動1000萬美元。我們預期非GAAP每股盈餘將在0.86美元至0.94美元之間，其中數值將比上年同期成長36%。

To help you with your models for the calendar year, I'll share some of our early views on Q1 of fiscal 2018. We believe semiconductor systems revenue in Q1 is likely to be higher sequentially and higher year-over-year, and we believe our display revenue in Q1 is likely to be lower sequentially but higher year-over-year.

為了幫助您建立年度模型，我將分享我們對 2018 財年第一季的初步看法。我們認為第一季半導體系統營收可能會較上季成長，年成長；我們認為第一季顯示器營收可能會較上季下降，但較去年同期成長。

Now I'll summarize by putting the company's guidance and momentum into context. In Q4, we expect the second highest semiconductor equipment revenue in our history, with continued double-digit growth momentum year-over-year. We also expect to set new record levels in services, display and for the company as a whole. We expect record earnings per share. We also look forward to another year of growth in 2018 based on strong customer pull across the portfolio as we supply our enabling technologies to drive the new data economy. I look forward to sharing our longer-term financial targets at the Analyst Day in New York on September 27 and especially look forward to meeting many of you there.

現在我將結合公司的發展方向和發展動能進行總結。我們預計第四季度半導體設備收入將達到公司歷史上第二高，並將繼續保持兩位數的年增長勢頭。我們也期望在服務、展示以及公司整體方面創下新的紀錄。我們預計每股收益將創歷史新高。我們也期待在 2018 年繼續保持成長，這得益於我們產品組合的強勁客戶需求，因為我們將提供賦能技術來推動新的數據經濟。我期待在9月27日於紐約舉行的分析師日上與大家分享我們的長期財務目標，尤其期待在那裡見到各位。

Now let me turn the call back to Mike to start the Q&A.

現在我把電話轉回給麥克，讓他開始問答環節。

Thanks, Dan. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝你，丹。（操作員指示）操作員，請開始。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

（操作說明）您的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, biggest question here is sustainability in memory. And it looks like you're guiding WFE around $43 billion, plus or minus, this year. And roughly 70% of that looks like it's coming from NAND. And so, curious, as you look at that part of the market, can you talk to your visibility to both greenfield and shrink plans as well as your thoughts around demand elasticity and how you're thinking about spend from that business over the next 5-plus years?

我想，這裡最大的問題是記憶體的可持續性。看來你預計今年WFE的收入將在430億美元左右，上下浮動。其中大約 70% 似乎來自 NAND 快閃記憶體。所以，我很好奇，在您審視這部分市場時，能否談談您對新建項目和縮減計劃的看法，以及您對需求彈性的看法，還有您如何看待未來 5 年以上的業務支出？

Sure. I'll take a shot. Overall, we expect WFE in '18 -- I'll drill into memory, too. We expect overall WFE in '18 to be up from '17. By device type, we think logic and DRAM should be higher next year. And we think foundry and NAND should both be strong next year. I think the 70% of total spend, the NAND, I thought you said, C.J., sounds a little high because we have NAND at less than 50% of total spend. But I'll drill into the deeper dive on what's going on in the memory markets. So let me talk about DRAM and NAND together and I'll drill into NAND also. I think there's 3 important things to remember about customers and one about Applied in both NAND and DRAM.

當然。我來試試看。總的來說，我們預計 WFE 將在 2018 年推出——我也會深入研究一下記憶體方面的內容。我們預計 2018 年整體 WFE 將比 2017 年有所成長。以裝置類型劃分，我們認為明年邏輯裝置和DRAM元件的價格應該會上漲。我們認為明年晶圓代工和NAND快閃記憶體業務都會表現強勁。我認為你之前說過，NAND 佔總支出的 70%，C.J.，這個比例有點高，因為我們 NAND 的支出佔總支出的比例不到 50%。但我會深入探討記憶體市場正在發生的事情。那麼，讓我一起來談談DRAM和NAND，我也會深入探討NAND。我認為關於客戶有 3 件重要的事情需要記住，關於應用材料在 NAND 和 DRAM 方面也有 1 件重要的事情需要記住。

One, if you look at NAND and DRAM customers, very profitable now, and I'll give you the numbers. Two, second thing to remember is, demand is strong for both DRAM and NAND, looks sustainable. The third thing is, actual wafer start additions have been modest, and I'll give you the numbers. And then finally, thinking about -- remember that Applied Materials, we've gained 8 points of WFE share in both DRAM and NAND over the last 4 years. So let me give you more specifics. In terms of customer profitability, which was the first talking point I made, DRAM WFE spending as a percentage of total EBITDA for our customers used to be about 26%, on average. That's DRAM WFE spending to the total EBITDA. And we think that's going to go down to about half, 14% this year and next. You know they're very profitable. When you look at the numbers, it's very profitable.

第一，如果你看看 NAND 和 DRAM 客戶，他們現在非常賺錢，我可以給你一些數據。第二，要記住的第二點是，DRAM 和 NAND 的需求都很強勁，看起來可以持續下去。第三點是，實際晶圓起始數量的增加並不多，我這就把具體數字告訴你。最後，請記住，在過去的 4 年裡，應用材料公司在 DRAM 和 NAND 領域的 WFE 市佔率都提高了 8 個百分點。讓我來詳細說明一下。就客戶獲利能力而言（這是我提出的第一個論點），我們客戶的 DRAM WFE 支出佔總 EBITDA 的比例平均約為 26%。這是DRAM WFE支出佔總EBITDA的比重。我們認為今年和明年這個數字會下降到大約一半，也就是 14%。你知道它們非常賺錢。從數據上看，這非常有利可圖。

The NAND similarly has gone down. Used to be about 26%, we see it down about 1/3 this year and next to 19%. But that's also sustaining more, higher growth rates in NAND, okay? The second thing to remember is bit demand. So if you look for smartphones and servers in both 2017 and '18, we see 30% bit growth demand. Now it goes down a point or 2 when you layer in PCs and stuff, but the big drivers are smartphones and servers. And we see 30% bit growth demand or gigabytes. Secondly, in NAND bit demand, we see 40% growth rate in '17 and '18 each for smartphones and solid-state disk drives. Then on capacity additions, if you go look at the data over the last, basically, 5 years, and we see this year basically the same, NAND -- DRAM wafer capacity has been basically flat. They got some bit growth, but because there are more layers, the actual wafers out of the building kind of goes down. So it's kind of flat, not a lot of capacity added.

NAND快閃記憶體也出現了類似的故障。以前大約是 26%，今年下降了大約 1/3，明年下降到 19%。但這也意味著 NAND 能夠維持更高的成長率，懂嗎？第二點要記住的是比特需求。因此，如果你查看 2017 年和 2018 年的智慧型手機和伺服器數據，我們會發現需求增加了 30%。如果把個人電腦之類的東西考慮進去，這個數字會下降一兩個百分點，但主要的驅動因素是智慧型手機和伺服器。我們看到比特需求或千兆位元組需求成長了 30%。其次，在 NAND 位元需求方面，我們看到 2017 年和 2018 年智慧型手機和固態硬碟的需求成長率均為 40%。至於產能成長，如果你查看過去 5 年的數據，你會發現今年的情況也基本上相同，NAND DRAM 晶圓產能基本上保持穩定。雖然產量有所增長，但由於層數更多，實際上從工廠生產的晶圓數量反而下降了。所以情況比較平坦，沒有增加太多容量。

Then if you look at NAND capacity additions, they spend a lot of money, but the actual capacity additions have been somewhat modest, a couple hundred thousand wafer starts, to up to 1.6 million now. And we project that they need about 2 billion in a few years -- 2 million, 2 million wafer starts per month, 2 billion a couple of years after that. But if you look at the 3 big things, customers are very profitable, DRAM and NAND. Secondly, bit growth and bit demand, bit demand is still very healthy, and we see it next year, too. And three, actual wafer capacity additions have been moderate. So we think -- I think NAND's pretty good for the foreseeable future.

然後，如果你看看 NAND 容量的增加，他們投入了很多錢，但實際的容量增加卻比較有限，從最初的幾十萬片晶圓開工量，到現在的 160 萬片。我們預計他們在幾年內需要大約 20 億美元——每月 200 萬片晶圓，再過幾年就需要 20 億美元。但如果你看看三大要素，你會發現客戶利潤非常豐厚，DRAM 和 NAND 就是其中之一。其次，比特成長和比特需求，比特需求仍然非常健康，我們預計明年也會如此。第三，實際晶圓產能的增加幅度不大。所以我們認為——我認為在可預見的未來，NAND 快閃記憶體的表現相當不錯。

Your next question comes from Farhan Ahmad with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的法爾漢·艾哈邁德。

Just quick clarifications. On the Jan quarter, do you think it will be a record level for SSG or not? And secondly, any color on the first half of next calendar year? Your commentary on 2018 seems to be fairly confident. Is it fair to say that the only trends that you are seeing in 2018, they are looking pretty strong right now?

簡單澄清一下。你認為1月的季度業績會創下SSG的歷史新高嗎？其次，明年上半年有什麼顏色嗎？你對2018年的評論似乎相當有自信。可以說，您在 2018 年看到的唯一趨勢，目前看來都非常強勁嗎？

Yes, it's strong. And we said in the call that Q1 was going to be a good fiscal quarter for us and we said semi was going to be incrementally stronger than the comp. And display, not quite as strong as the comp in Q4 that we just guided to. So if you look at -- we were close to record in SSG this quarter. I think the record was last quarter, Q3. I think there's a pretty damn good chance we're going to beat the record in Q1. Oh, wait, there was a second question. Did you have a second part to that, Farhan?

是的，它很強。我們在電話會議中表示，第一季對我們來說將是一個不錯的財季，半導體業務將比同業表現略好。而顯示屏，則不如我們先前預測的第四季度表現強勁。所以如果你看一下——我們本季的 SSG 接近了紀錄。我認為紀錄是上個季度，也就是第三季。我認為我們很有可能在第一季打破紀錄。哦，等等，還有第二個問題。法罕，你還有第二部嗎？

Yes, I was just that -- calendar first year, is there any visibility that you have that makes you confident on the first half -- on the next year overall?

是的，我就是這樣——第一年，您對上半年甚至整個下一年有什麼看法，讓您有信心嗎？

What we said on the call, number one, was that we think next year WFE is up. We also think our position is really good. And we have a strong degree of confidence in our fiscal Q1, and we don't see that problematic after that. We think it's a pretty good year.

我們在電話會議上說的第一點是，我們認為明年 WFE 將會增加。我們也認為我們的處境非常好。我們對第一財季的業績非常有信心，而且我們認為之後也不會出現問題。我們認為今年是個相當不錯的年份。

Your next question comes from Atif Malik with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的阿提夫·馬利克。

I just want to clarify the 30% year-over-year growth for display, is that for fiscal '18 or calendar '18?

我想確認一下，這裡提到的 30% 的年成長率是指 2018 財年還是 2018 年曆年？

Fiscal revenues. Calendar's good, too. I just don't look at it that closely on a calendar basis.

財政收入。日曆也很好用。我不會按日曆仔細查看它。

Okay. And can you help us out? How much of that is kind of market growth? I think in the past you've talked about an $18 billion display spending this year. Is that mostly market growth or are you baking in contribution from new products?

好的。您能幫我們一個忙嗎？其中有多少屬於市場成長？我記得你之前說過今年顯示器支出將達到 180 億美元。這主要是市場成長帶來的收益，還是也包含了新產品帶來的收益？

Yes. If you look at it in '17 and '18, our total revenues are going to be up in about 30%. If you go look at the market in '17, '18, it's going to be healthy. And our position is going to strengthen. And what we alluded to a little while ago that we're going to have some new product introductions. In fact, we already had one about a year or so ago and we're going to have more. So I think we'll get some contributions from the market and our position.

是的。如果將 2017 年和 2018 年的數據進行比較，我們的總收入將成長約 30%。如果你看看 2017 年、2018 年的市場，你會發現市場狀況良好。我們的地位將會更加穩固。正如我們剛才提到的，我們將推出一些新產品。事實上，我們大約一年前就已經有一個了，而且我們還會再建造一個。所以我認為我們會從市場和我們的部位中獲得一些收益。

Your next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

You guys discussed the growing number of programs for large-screen LCD in your forward pipeline. A few weeks ago on their earnings call, LG Display discussed spending about KRW 20 trillion of OLED CapEx over the next 4 years. That's about USD 18 billion, and much of it is actually for large-screen OLED. And I think their view is that OLED TV volume is going to grow from 2.5 million, 3 million next year to something like 6 million by 2020. Can you guys just remind us on your position in large-screen OLED, your views on how you see the market evolving? Clearly, I think -- feels like it's the next big driver after the mobile adoption.

你們討論了未來產品線中針對大螢幕液晶顯示器的程式數量不斷增加的問題。幾週前，LG Display 在財報電話會議上討論了未來 4 年將在 OLED 領域投入約 20 兆韓元資本支出。那大約是 180 億美元，其中很大一部分實際上用於大螢幕 OLED。我認為他們的觀點是，OLED 電視的銷量將從明年的 250 萬台、300 萬台增長到 2020 年的 600 萬台左右。各位能否簡單介紹一下你們在大螢幕OLED領域的定位，以及你們對市場發展趨勢的看法？顯然，我認為——感覺上——這是繼行動裝置普及之後的下一個重大驅動因素。

Sure. I'll give you some factoids on the overall market, which you touched on, Harlan, and then a little bit on the OLED and then Gary might join on that one, too. So in terms of -- I didn't factor it -- I don't think we've mentioned them. From our call, which I think was 3 months ago, our expectations for the total market of display equipment has gone up for all 5 years in our window, '17, '18, '19 and '20 and '21, all 5 have gone up. And we see strength across the board, basically, in both TV and mobile. A lot of big TV factories and increasing strength in mobile. So it's a very strong market position, even more so than 3 months ago.

當然。我會給你介紹一些關於整體市場的情況，哈蘭，你剛才也提到了這一點，然後再簡單說說OLED，加里可能也會加入討論。所以就這一點而言——我沒有考慮過——我認為我們還沒有提到它們。從我們上次通話（我認為是 3 個月前）來看，我們對顯示設備整體市場的預期在我們預測的 5 年內（2017 年、2018 年、2019 年、2020 年和 2021 年）均有所上升。基本上，電視和行動領域都呈現出全面強勁的勢頭。很多大型電視機生產廠家，行動領域的實力也不斷增強。所以，它的市場地位非常穩固，甚至比三個月前還要強。

In terms of our product position, we're going to continue to reduce new products. In terms of OLED TVs, what they're kind of doing is this white backplane stuff with a color filter, I guess. So it's not the same OLED as you have in mobile, but it is a version of OLED. And our position is pretty good there. But it's not the big technology inflection which has as much percentage growth in TAM availability for everybody as you have in true OLED in the mobile phones.

就我們的產品定位而言，我們將持續減少新產品的數量。就OLED電視而言，他們現在做的，大概就是用白色背板加彩色濾光片吧。所以它和手機上的OLED不一樣，但它是OLED的一種版本。我們在那裡的處境相當不錯。但這並非像手機中真正的 OLED 技術一樣，能為所有人帶來 TAM 市場規模大幅成長的重大技術變革。

We've been -- this is Gary. We've been increasing our share with pretty much all of the customers. And certainly, in this inflection also, we have an increasing position. So it's a very positive driver for us longer term. Relative to the inflections and kind of the market outlook, we're still in the early innings of OLED mobile. So as that continues to get built out, that's a big positive driver for us. This adoption of larger screens in TV, we talked about 13 Gen 10.5 factories, that will be built out over the next several years. And then if you look at the investments that large technology companies are making, VR/AR, automotive, those are -- there are other types of display technologies, foldable displays, those other inflections that could be more significant if you look out in the 3- to 5-year time frame, but we have good exposure to all of those changes.

我們一直——這位是加里。我們幾乎在所有客戶中的份額都在成長。當然，在這轉折點上，我們的地位也不斷提升。所以從長遠來看，這對我們來說是一個非常積極的驅動因素。就市場前景的轉折點和類型而言，我們仍處於OLED行動市場的早期階段。隨著該項目不斷推進建設，這對我們來說是一個巨大的積極驅動因素。隨著電視螢幕尺寸的增大，我們討論了未來幾年將要建成的 13 家 10.5 代工廠。然後，如果你看看大型科技公司正在進行的投資，例如 VR/AR、汽車等領域——還有其他類型的顯示技術，例如可折疊顯示器，這些其他的轉折點如果展望未來 3 到 5 年，可能會更加顯著，但我們對所有這些變化都有很好的了解。

Your next question comes from Krish Sankar with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的 Krish Sankar。

I had a question on display. Samsung has been going on saying their display CapEx is going to be down next year, but you guys are guiding to up 30% for revenue. And I understand you're getting some new products introductions, so a two-part question. How much of the growth next year is driven by new products versus the existing product line? And along the same path, can you split up your revenue -- display revenue by LCD versus OLED for this year and next year?

我有一個問題要提出來。三星一直表示明年其顯示器資本支出將會下降，但你們卻預測營收將成長 30%。我知道你們會推出一些新產品，所以我的問題分成兩個部分。在明年的成長中，新產品推動的份額有多大？現有產品線推動的份額又有多大？同樣地，您能否將今年和明年的顯示器收入按 LCD 和 OLED 分別細分？

Well, first, I'll do the market then I'll do a little bit on us. So we think the total spending by display manufacturers is up this year and up again next year. We think it's pretty strong in both TV and mobile. So the big TVs are driving the CapEx spending on TV and then mobile is mostly this OLED driver. So we see upside in total. We see upside in TVs next year. And we also see some upside potential in mobile next year. And part of that is you see a proliferation to mobile phone display manufacturers beyond the big one in Korea. So if you think of the factoid we gave you the last couple of quarters, if you go back to our sales of OLED equipment in fiscal '16, roughly 2/3 was to the biggest manufacturer of OLEDs. We've now proliferated to 10 different people buying some equipment from us. And the big guy, in terms of commitments of orders this year, fiscal '17, is significantly less than 50%. So what you're seeing is next year can grow because TVs are good and you have a proliferation of more people making mobile phones.

首先，我會分析一下市場狀況，然後再簡單談談我們自身的狀況。因此，我們認為顯示器製造商今年的總支出將會增加，明年還會繼續增加。我們認為它在電視和行動裝置上的表現都相當強勁。所以，大尺寸電視推動了電視領域的資本支出，而行動裝置的驅動力主要來自 OLED 電視。所以總的來說，我們看到了上漲空間。我們預計明年電視市場將會上漲。我們也看到明年行動領域也存在一些上漲潛力。部分原因是，除了韓國那家大型手機顯示器製造商之外，其他手機顯示器製造商的數量也在增加。所以，如果你回想一下我們過去幾季提供的事實，如果你回顧一下我們在 2016 財年的 OLED 設備銷售額，大約 2/3 都賣給了最大的 OLED 製造商。現在已經有 10 個人從我們這裡購買設備了。而就本財年（2017 財年）的訂單承諾而言，大企業佔比遠低於 50%。所以你會看到，明年可能會成長，因為電視機市場不錯，而且越來越多的人開始生產手機。

Your next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, I was hoping you could elaborate a little bit on your view on China into 2018. You talked about having relatively conservative assumptions embedded in your WFE forecast for 2018, but what exactly are those assumptions? And what would be the bull case over the next 12 to 18 months?

蓋瑞，我希望你能詳細說明一下你對2018年中國情勢的看法。您提到在 2018 年 WFE 預測中採用了相對保守的假設，但這些假設究竟是什麼？那麼，未來 12 到 18 個月的多頭前景如何呢？

All right. Thanks for the question. China is one of our strongest regions in both semiconductor and display. Our business has grown a significant amount. If we look at '17 versus '15, we're up 2x in semi, 50% growth in service and 50% in display. In '16 to '17, we anticipate we're going to be up more than 20% overall in China. We track all the projects. We have very close relationships and very high share in China. So we're tracking all the projects for all of the customers. And we have leading indicators for the most likely investments. There's a lot of discussion about investment, but we qualify that based on these leading indicators.

好的。謝謝你的提問。中國是我們半導體和顯示器領域中實力最強的地區之一。我們的業務成長顯著。如果將 2017 年與 2015 年進行比較，半導體業務成長了 2 倍，服務業務成長了 50%，顯示器業務成長了 50%。預計 2016 年至 2017 年，我們在中國的整體成長率將超過 20%。我們會追蹤所有項目。我們在中國擁有非常緊密的合作關係和非常高的市場份額。所以我們正在追蹤所有客戶的所有項目。我們掌握著最有可能的投資項目的領先指標。關於投資有很多討論，但我們根據這些領先指標來判斷投資的合理性。

And based on all of that, 2018, we think, will be up an incremental -- at least $1 billion, probably in the range of $1 billion to $1.5 billion in 2018. Longer term, we think that this number is going to continue to grow because of the strategic nature of the investment. In China, they're trying to grow the percent of domestic content, build a secure supply chain, and it's a long-term strategy. The investments are not as efficient. Many of the investments next year will be in pilot lines in China, but we believe that this market will continue to grow over time. And our position is very, very strong in both semiconductor and display.

基於以上所有因素，我們認為 2018 年將略有成長——至少 10 億美元，可能在 10 億美元到 15 億美元之間。從長遠來看，我們認為由於這項投資的戰略性質，這個數字將會持續成長。在中國，他們正努力提高國產化率，建立安全的供應鏈，這是一項長期策略。這些投資效率不高。明年許多投資將用於中國的試點生產線，但我們相信這個市場會隨著時間的推移而持續成長。我們在半導體和顯示領域都擁有非常非常強大的地位。

Your next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I want to ask about the growth in services. You talked about 15%, which is pretty good. I know you've had a strategy of kind of trying to improve that opportunity. Can you talk about how much of the growth you're seeing is just because of the significant increase in the installed base of tools versus some of the other things you might be doing to drive that growth?

我想了解一下服務業的成長情況。你提到了15%，這相當不錯。我知道你一直在努力尋找提昇機會的策略。您能否談談您目前看到的成長有多少是由於工具安裝量的顯著增加，又有多少是由於您為推動成長而採取的其他措施？

Sure. If you look at it, you go back on a longer-term, historical perspective, we used to be kind of flat, around $2 billion a year back around '13. This year, we're going to do about $3 billion. If you look at the rate of growth year-on-year, it's 15.9%. But if you look at the quarters of the year, you'll see the momentum picks up even throughout the year. So I'm pretty confident that next year is a strong year for us and probably the momentum is as strong, maybe even a little better than this year for several reasons. One, if you look at your service business, it's a function of 2 things: the market, your position and your strategy to attack the market. 3 things, I guess, market, product group and strategy. So if you look at the market, WFE is pretty damn strong. It's a pretty big number this year and next year, so that provides a tool set that you can service.

當然。從更長遠的歷史角度來看，我們過去一直比較平穩，大約在 2013 年左右，每年收入約為 20 億美元。今年，我們計劃完成約30億美元。如果看年增長率，那就是 15.9%。但如果你看一下季度數據，你會發現這種勢頭甚至在全年都在增強。所以我很有信心，明年對我們來說將是強勁的一年，而且勢頭可能會和今年一樣強勁，甚至由於幾個原因，可能會比今年更好一些。第一，如果你檢視一下你的服務業務，你會發現它取決於兩件事：市場、你的市場地位以及你開拓市場的策略。我想，主要有三點：市場、產品線和策略。所以從市場來看，WFE 的實力非常強勁。今年和明年這個數字都相當大，所以你可以使用相應的工具集來維護。

And then if you look at the percentage of the market for us, we used to be 17.8% of WFE just for 300-millimeter tools back in 2013. And this year -- last year, we were what, 22%, and we're going to go up again this year, so we got a bigger piece of the market. Thirdly, if you look where we're gaining a lot of share, we're gaining a lot of share in places like etch, which is pretty good entitlement for service. So all the dynamics are the market, our position, the products we are selling is raising our service entitlement. And then secondly, what we have done -- or thirdly, that was marketing our position -- thirdly, in terms of our strategy has improve more and more.

然後，如果你看看我們當時的市場份額，你會發現，在 2013 年，我們光是 300 毫米刀具的市佔率就達到了 WFE 的 17.8%。今年——去年我們的市佔率是 22%，今年還會繼續成長，所以我們獲得了更大的市佔率。第三，如果你看看我們在哪些領域獲得了大量市場份額，你會發現我們在像 etch 這樣的地方獲得了大量市場份額，這對於服務來說是一項相當不錯的權利。所以所有動態因素都取決於市場、我們的地位以及我們銷售的產品，這些因素都在提高我們的服務權利。其次，我們所做的──或者說第三點，那就是推廣我們的市場地位──第三點，就我們的策略而言，已經越來越好。

So if you look at it, instead of selling parts and ad hoc labor, we are selling long-term service contracts. We talk about getting 1,000 extra service contracts per year. And that means we have a more predictable, more sustainable and greater value for the customers and ourselves that again raises our service entitlement. So my guess, the rate of growth in the service business is going to be pretty strong next year.

所以仔細想想，我們賣的不是零件和臨時工，而是長期服務合約。我們討論的是每年額外獲得 1000 份服務合約。這意味著我們為客戶和我們自己創造了更可預測、更永續、更大的價值，這也再次提高了我們的服務權利。所以我估計，明年服務業的成長速度將會非常強勁。

Your next question comes from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題來自野村證券的 Romit Shah。

It seems like the DRAM industry is at a crossroads here, whereby with the conversion to 1X, bit supply growth is going to decelerate into the teens range. And that's well below what people are thinking in terms of DRAM bit demand, call it, 25%, 30%. So it would seem like next year, we do see capacity increase. And I know you guys are positive on that segment for 2018. And I was hoping you could just share your assumption for capacity additions in DRAM.

DRAM 產業似乎正處於十字路口，隨著向 1X 的轉換，比特供應成長速度將放緩至十幾位元。這遠低於人們對 DRAM 位元需求的預期，比方說 25% 或 30%。所以看來明年產能確實會增加。我知道你們對2018年的這個階段充滿信心。我希望您能分享一下您對DRAM容量增加的看法。

I'll give you my opinion and Gary can jump in. So if you look at the dynamics, 3 of our 4 big memory customers do both DRAM and NAND. I personally believe they have slightly different strategies in DRAM and NAND. If you look at NAND, the elasticity of demand for NAND is probably pretty damn big. There's a lot of growth in NAND and they're going to eat into hard disk drives. Then if you look at DRAM -- so they're going to spend there and grow their addressable market and make a bunch of money. If you look at DRAM, I don't think the elasticity there is quite as big. So -- and then if you look at shrinking, you nominally get 28% more bits, roughly, per wafer, but because there's more layers you get less wafers out of the same building, basically. There's more steps. And that's where the capital intensity comes in. So you're sort of getting 14% growth in kind of output of a factory. So it's getting expensive to keep growing effective bits.

我會先說說我的看法，然後加里也可以發表意見。所以從市場動態來看，我們 4 個大型記憶體客戶中有 3 個同時使用 DRAM 和 NAND。我個人認為他們在DRAM和NAND方面採取了略有不同的策略。如果你觀察NAND閃存，你會發現NAND快閃記憶體的需求彈性可能非常大。NAND快閃記憶體發展迅速，將會蠶食硬碟的市場佔有率。然後，如果你看看DRAM——他們將在那裡投入資金，擴大其潛在市場，並賺取一大筆錢。如果你看看DRAM，我認為它的彈性並沒有那麼大。所以——如果你考慮縮小尺寸，理論上每片晶圓可以多獲得大約 28% 的比特，但由於層數更多，基本上從同一棟樓裡生產的晶圓數量會更少。還有更多步驟。這就是資本密集度發揮作用的地方。所以，工廠的產量大約增加了 14%。所以，持續培育有效基因的成本越來越高。

So now what do you do? Well, if you have a total company strategy, you're probably going to invest pretty heavily, more heavily a little bit in greenfield for NAND to grow the addressable market and make money. You're probably going to do more heavily weighted on conversions for DRAM. So what we see, our estimate is in 2017, you probably got about 75,000 wafer starts adds and converts at 240 to 250, but the net adds is probably even a little less, because I think it's like 50 or maybe a little less, because you're kind of effectively shrinking your output a little bit with all those others because of more layer count. And we look at '18, similar numbers, kind of 75 adds and converts at 290 maybe, but it's more weighted to conversions than adds because of the economics.

那現在該怎麼辦？如果你制定了全面的公司策略，你可能會投入相當多的資金，尤其是在 NAND 的全新領域投入更多，以擴大潛在市場並賺錢。你可能會更專注於DRAM的轉換。所以我們估計，2017 年晶圓新增數量和轉換數量可能在 240 到 250 之間，達到 75,000 片左右，但淨新增數量可能還要少一些，因為我認為大概只有 50 片，甚至可能更少，因為由於層數增加，實際上你的產量會略微減少一些。我們來看看 2018 年的數據，類似，大約 75 個新增用戶和 290 個轉換用戶，但由於經濟原因，轉換用戶比新增用戶更佔比。

Your next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Patrick Ho。

Looking at the foundry market, clearly, you're benefiting right now from capital intensity trends going to the 10- and 7-nanometer node. But could you discuss maybe how that node may develop over time? And could you see that node being potentially as large as the 28-nanometer node, which has been very profitable for the chipmakers? Is it possible that this is the next big node that we see and this could be a multiyear event for the foundry segment?

從晶圓代工市場來看，很明顯，目前資本密集度轉移到 10 奈米和 7 奈米節點的趨勢正在帶來收益。但是，您能否討論一下這個節點可能會如何隨時間發展？您認為該節點有可能達到 28 奈米節點的規模嗎？ 28 奈米節點一直以來都為晶片製造商帶來了豐厚的利潤。這是否有可能成為我們即將看到的下一個重大節點，並可能成為代工領域未來數年的重大事件？

I think the answer is yes, yes, and yes. Now I will give you more than a one-word answer. So if you look at its peak, 28-nanometer, I think, peaked out at 335,000 wafer starts. Earlier in the year, about 9 months ago, our estimate that 7-nanometer would peak out -- it's kind of 10 going to 7, 7 I'll just call it, would peak out at -- originally we said 250,000, then 260,000, then 280,000. We're currently at 300,000 wafer starts. Might be upside to that because what you get is more and more applications for 7-nanometer devices, there's going to be all the typical processor stuff, mobile phone stuff, but you're going to get more and more into this cloud stuff, you're going to get into the cars with probably 7-nanometer device. So it's probably going to go long and big, right? It's sort of like [20 in there].

我認為答案是肯定的，肯定的，肯定的。現在我將給你一個不只一個字的答案。所以如果你看一下它的峰值，28 奈米，我認為，它的晶圓開片數達到了 335,000 片。今年早些時候，大約 9 個月前，我們估計 7 奈米製程的峰值——它有點像從 10 奈米到 7 奈米的過渡，我就叫它 7 奈米吧——峰值會達到——最初我們說是 25 萬，然後是 26 萬，然後是 28 萬。我們目前晶圓開工量為 30 萬片。這或許也有好處，因為7奈米裝置的應用範圍會越來越廣，除了典型的處理器、手機等應用之外，還會越來越多地應用於雲端運算領域，甚至可能應用到汽車領域。所以它可能會持續很長時間，而且規模很大，對吧？有點像[裡面有20]。

Now the good news, there's a bunch of good news in there. One, it's big. That's obvious. Two, it's kind of long. So then you start to roll forward and you say, hey, does a lot of this roll to 5 or does it stay at 7 because you're thinking of product lives and great stuff with the car industry, which aren't big now, you stay at a node for a while. So there's probably not as much -- really it's my guess down to 5, right? The third thing, which is really interesting is, if you look at capital intensity is picking up. From 28 to 7, you'd say, well, okay, Bob, it's 335,000 to 300,000, you're down 10%. Capital intensity from 28 to 7-nanometer node is up over 90%. So to make those wafers, there's a lot more equipment sales. And -- so our position is really good. It's going to be a bunch of equipment sold. The customer is going to make a lot of money. It's going to be a big, long node.

現在來說說好消息，這裡面有很多好消息。第一，它很大。這顯而易見。第二，它有點長。所以，你開始向前滾動，然後你會說，嘿，很多東西會滾動到 5 還是會保持在 7，因為你在考慮產品生命週期和汽車行業的偉大事物，而這些現在並不大，你會在一個節點上停留一段時間。所以可能沒那麼多——我猜真的只有 5 個，對吧？第三點，也是非常有趣的一點，如果你觀察資本密集度，你會發現它正在上升。從 28 到 7，你會說，好吧，鮑勃，現在是 335,000 到 300,000，你下降了 10%。從 28 奈米節點到 7 奈米節點，資本密集度上升了 90% 以上。所以，為了生產這些晶圓，設備銷售量會大幅成長。所以——我們的處境非常好。將會出售一大批設備。這位客戶將會賺很多錢。這將是一個又大又長的節點。

Your next question comes from Edwin Mok with Needham & Co.

你的下一個問題來自 Needham & Co. 的 Edwin Mok。

Just quickly on margin, that's kind of, I guess, a two-part question. One, I noticed that your service revenue just hit a record that suggests that margin actually came down, it was actually lower. And lastly, what is that...

簡單來說，關於利潤率，我想這應該是一個包含兩個部分的問題。第一，我注意到你們的服務收入剛剛創下紀錄，這表明利潤率實際上下降了，實際上更低了。最後，那是什麼…

I'm sorry, Ed, if I -- Ed, wait, wait, Edwin, you pinged down a little bit. Could you -- would you repeat the question, please? I just couldn't hear it clearly.

對不起，艾德，如果我──艾德，等等，等等，艾德溫，你的訊號稍微下降了一點。您能再說一次問題嗎？我聽不清楚。

Sure, no problem. So I guess, two-part question on margin. First is service margin, I noticed it came down this quarter. Wondering why, what's the driver for that? And then display, with the revenue increasing by quite a bit this quarter and you guys guiding to higher revenue, is it possible that display get to the semi margin level sometime in the future?

當然沒問題。所以，我想，這是一個包含兩個部分的問題。首先是服務利潤率，我注意到本季服務利潤率有所下降。想知道為什麼會這樣，背後的驅動因素是什麼？然後是顯示器業務，本季營收大幅成長，而且你們也預測營收會更高，那麼顯示器業務未來是否有可能達到半獲利水準？

Okay. So first off there's our service margins. Yes, he's looking at operating margins. So here's the trend line, and they can pull up service. Okay. Let me get the data here, Q3, Q4. Yes, I think service gross and operating margins are up a little bit in Q3 and up more in Q4, actually. And our trend line is they're going to go up. So I think what you'll see -- I'll give you some longer-term perspective of where we're going. That might help. We used to be 23%, 24% operating margins in service. And then in full year '16, we were probably 26.5% or 27%. This year, the guide is like 28%, frankly. And we're going to trend up a little bit more. So the operating margins trend up, gross margin are trending up some, too. So I think generally, the trend is pretty good. What's driving the trend line in margins? Revenue growth's pretty darn good. Gross margins will trend up a little bit. You get drop-through because you get the percentage gross margin and you get the leverage of the revenue growth. So I think operating margins are going to trend up and gross margins will trend up in service.

好的。首先是我們的服務利潤率。是的，他關注的是營業利益率。所以這就是趨勢線，他們可以調出服務。好的。讓我把這裡的數據拿出來，Q3，Q4。是的，我認為第三季服務業毛利率和營業利潤率略有上升，第四季實際上上升幅度更大。我們的趨勢線是，它們將會上漲。所以我想你們將會看到——我會給你們一些關於我們未來發展方向的更長遠的看法。或許會有幫助。我們以前的服務業營業利潤率是 23% 到 24%。到了 2016 年全年，我們的佔比可能達到了 26.5% 或 27%。坦白說，今年的指南推薦率大概是 28%。而且我們還會繼續小漲。因此，營業利益率呈上升趨勢，毛利率也有所上升。所以我覺得整體來說，趨勢還不錯。什麼因素驅動了利潤率的趨勢線？營收成長相當不錯。毛利率將略有上升。之所以能獲得直接收益，是因為您可以獲得毛利率百分比，並享受收入成長帶來的槓桿效應。所以我認為營業利益率和服務業的毛利率都會呈現上升趨勢。

One other thing I would add in terms of service is we've always done a great job in driving lower cost. We're moving a lot more content into lower-cost regions. And customers are also facing big challenges in the technology ramps for logic and also for memory. Our opportunity, Bob talked about earlier in service contract, is also increasing our revenue growth. So we're driving lower costs. We're driving greater value for our customers. And that is increasing our overall operating margins and giving us a momentum going forward in service business.

關於服務方面，我還想補充一點，我們一直致力於降低成本，並且取得了顯著成效。我們將更多內容轉移到成本較低的地區。客戶在邏輯電路和記憶體的技術革新方面也面臨巨大的挑戰。鮑伯之前在服務合約中提到的機會，也提高了我們的收入成長。所以我們正在努力降低成本。我們正在為客戶創造更大的價值。這將提高我們的整體營業利潤率，並為我們在服務業務方面的發展提供動力。

So then display, yes, Edwin, also. Display operating margins and gross margins are tending to trend up. If you look at operating margins for display, from 2012, they were about 9.8%. '13 was 16.8% '14 is 24%. About 25% in '15. '16 was about 20%, 21%, we were investing. This year we will be about 26%. Next year should be up with the volume. So I think we're going to do pretty well in display. Now if you look at the longer-term model, which we'll show in Analyst Day, last year, the Analyst Day model we showed that generally our operating margins and gross margins are higher in semi, but services and display are both -- they're all increasing. And what you'll probably get is high 20s in service and display and higher, 30-something in semi and the overall average goes up.

所以，是的，也展示給埃德溫吧。顯示器營業利益率和毛利率呈上升趨勢。如果查看顯示器的營業利潤率，從 2012 年開始，約為 9.8%。2013 年為 16.8%，2014 年為 24%。2015年約為25%。2016 年，我們的投資金額約為 20%、21%。今年我們將佔到26%左右。明年銷量應該會上升。所以我認為我們在展覽方面會表現得相當不錯。現在，如果你看一下更長期的模型，我們將在去年的分析師日上展示，在分析師日模型中，我們展示了，一般來說，半導體的營業利潤率和毛利率較高，但服務和顯示器——它們都在增長。服務和展示方面，你可能會得到 20 多分，半成品方面會更高，30 多分，整體平均分數也會上升。

Your next question comes from Weston Twigg with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Weston Twigg。

I just wanted to dig back into the visibility you have with your large memory customers. And the reason I ask is, just 6 to 9 months ago, your outlook for the year was substantially different. And so that implies very low visibility at some of these large customers. And I'm wondering if that visibility has actually improved or if really you're commenting on the trends as you're looking into 2018.

我只是想再次深入了解您在大型記憶體客戶中的可見度。我這麼問的原因是，就在 6 到 9 個月前，你對今年的展望與現在大不相同。因此，這意味著在某些大客戶那裡，我們的可見度非常低。我想知道這種可見性是否真的有所提高，或者你只是在展望 2018 年時對趨勢發表評論。

That's a heck of a good question. So I'll give you some historical perspective. We do forecast historically based on -- we talk to the account guys, who talk to the customers, and then the marketing guys look at trend data and underlying drivers. When we do a kind of a 1-year forecast, it's a little bit more weighted to talking to the account guys. And the customers' communication of second half visibility to us is moderate. Sometimes they don't know and sometimes they don't want to disclose it, frankly, because it's a competitive issue for them. So my belief is that the semicap industry probably underestimated the second half of this year. And if we'd done a lot more deep thinking on it, we might have estimated a little higher number in the second half.

這真是個好問題。那我將從歷史角度來介紹一下。我們根據歷史數據進行預測——我們與客戶經理溝通，客戶經理與客戶溝通，然後行銷人員查看趨勢數據和潛在驅動因素。當我們進行一年期預測時，會更著重於與客戶經理溝通。客戶對我們下半年業績可見度的回饋一般。坦白說，有時候他們不知道，有時候他們不想透露，因為這關係到他們的競爭。所以我認為，半導體產業可能低估了今年下半年的市場表現。如果我們對此進行更深入的思考，我們或許會估計下半年的數字會更高一些。

And there's one particular customer who's much bigger than expectations. So if you go look at -- we've spent, me personally included, have spent a lot more time on root cause drivers, what -- not just of what customers tell us, but what are they selling? What are the devices going into? What is the content of the phone? What is the content of the PC? What's the content of the cloud? So, for instance, if you look at the delta from what we thought ended '16 was content, wasn't unit count phones, it's content in phones, content in the cloud. That is continuing for this year. If you say, what device type is up this year from earlier expectations, across the board, but it's NAND, DRAM and foundry, but NAND is probably the biggest increase, but it wasn't a particular customer in particular. So we're spending a lot more time going through root cause drivers of what's driving demand. So I'd probably have more confidence than I did a year ago about the outlook.

其中有一位客戶，其影響力遠遠超出預期。所以，如果你去看看——我們（包括我個人）已經花費了大量時間研究根本原因驅動因素，不僅是客戶告訴我們的，還有他們正在銷售的是什麼？這些設備將安裝在什麼設備上？手機裡有什麼內容？電腦裡裝了什麼？雲端包含什麼內容？例如，如果你看我們認為 2016 年底的內容增量，不是手機數量，而是手機中的內容，雲端的內容。今年這種情況還將持續。如果問今年哪種設備類型的銷售量超過了先前的預期，那就是所有類型，包括 NAND、DRAM 和代工產品，但 NAND 的增幅可能最大，但這並非某個特定客戶的訂單。因此，我們正在花更多的時間來探究驅動需求的根本原因。所以，相較於一年前，我對前景的信心可能會更強。

Your next question comes from Craig Ellis with B. Riley.

你的下一個問題來自 Craig Ellis 和 B. Riley。

I'm going to ask you to take another longer-term view of one of the end use areas as you did with foundry, except this is in DRAM. And what I was hoping you could you do is just look out beyond the next few shrinks that we're likely to get to some of the alternative architectures. And the question is really around the equipment intensity that AMAT might be seeing with any of the successor architectures that would be there for DRAM. Is it higher? Is it lower? Is it a mix? What's the company seeing longer term for the extension to nonvolatile memory as we know it or volatile memory as we know it?

我想請你像對晶圓代工一樣，對某個最終用途領域進行更長期的分析，只不過這次是 DRAM。我希望你能做的，是放眼未來幾季之後，看看我們可能會遇到的一些替代架構。真正的問題在於，AMAT 可能會看到 DRAM 的任何後續架構所帶來的裝置密集度。更高嗎？更低嗎？這是混合的嗎？從長遠來看，該公司對我們所知的非揮發性記憶體或揮發性記憶體的擴充有何看法？

I'll start with more general stuff. Gary will do the more technical stuff. I generally am optimistic about the industry and the various device types, but there's going to be granularity to some of that. So I believe that there's drivers -- that there's greater and greater valuable applications for silicon than there used to be. Because you basically, A, leveraging all the physical assets in the universe more efficiently through silicon. And two, I think a lot of the incremental consumption of entertainment and health care will be leveraged by silicon. So I think the cosmic drivers, whether it's on automobiles, hotels, health care, you name it, silicon's going to play a big role in this. Okay? So that drivers. Now that said, how you make money in life is 2 ways: scale and differentiation. So if you look at the scale of these things, they're very big, including scale up at the cloud where they have huge volumes. And the differentiations on these solutions, what does that mean? I think you're going to have more different tapeouts of more different type of devices than you've had before.

我先從比較籠統的內容說起。Gary會負責更技術性的工作。我總體上對這個行業和各種設備類型持樂觀態度，但其中一些方面還需要細化。所以我相信，矽的應用前景越來越廣闊，其應用價值也越來越高。因為你基本上是透過矽更有效地利用了宇宙中所有的有形資產。第二，我認為娛樂和醫療保健領域許多新增消費都將由矽來推動。所以我認為，無論是在汽車、飯店、醫療保健，或是其他任何領域，矽都將在宇宙驅動力中發揮重要作用。好的？所以司機們。也就是說，人生中賺錢的方式有兩種：規模化和差異化。所以，如果你看看這些事情的規模，它們非常龐大，包括在雲端的擴展，它們的容量非常巨大。這些解決方案之間的差異意味著什麼？我認為你們將會獲得比以往更多不同類型元件的流片。

I think you'll see the A6 chips. You'll see the graphics processor units. I think you'll see different types of high end, low end, different types of DRAM. And I think you'll see different types of memory. So I think you're going to get a proliferation, more devices and more designs, which is all good for us, frankly. And then if you go to, what do I think about alternate memory? I think NAND is going to grow for a while. It's going to eat into hard disk drive. I think DRAM and alternative forms of memory, they'll be ones that segment the market and sell different products because the volume up there and the differentiation is so valuable that you can go to different design types. I don't think it's going to be one shoe fits all feet. And then thirdly, in terms of capital intensity, capital intensity by device type is up across the board from a few years ago, 30% to 90%, right? And I don't see that trend changing for all the new devices either. Gary?

我想你會看到A6晶片。你會看到圖形處理器單元。我想你會看到不同類型的高階、低階、不同類型的DRAM。我認為你會看到不同類型的記憶。所以我認為將會出現大量的設備和更多的設計，坦白說，這對我們來說都是好事。那麼，如果你去了解一下，我對備用記憶有什麼看法呢？我認為NAND閃存在未來一段時間仍將保持成長。這會佔用大量硬碟空間。我認為DRAM和其他形式的記憶體將會細分市場並銷售不同的產品，因為那裡的銷售和差異化非常有價值，所以可以採用不同的設計類型。我不認為會有一雙鞋子能適合所有人。第三，就資本密集度而言，按設備類型劃分的資本密集度與幾年前相比全面上升，從 30% 上升到 90%，對吧？而且我認為這種趨勢在所有新設備上都不會改變。加里？

So I would also agree with Bob that the -- you've got big investments being made by leading companies to drive transformative changes that shift economic value in major industries. That's going to create a great opportunity for memory, for high-performance computing, all of those different areas. I also -- if you look at what's happened in memory over the last few years and what's driving the market today, tremendous innovation in the architecture, driven by materials innovation, what we do better than anyone else. And we're working with very large companies on certainly extending current memory technologies, scaling 3D NAND, but we're also working on new memory technologies. And I really believe that the pace of innovation is going to accelerate. And really, the foundation of that is Applied Materials with materials innovation. So I'm pretty optimistic on the overall market opportunity, and I'm also even more optimistic about our position to grow as these changes happen.

所以我也同意鮑伯的觀點，即——領先的公司正在進行大量投資，以推動變革性變化，從而改變主要產業的經濟價值。這將為記憶體、高效能運算以及所有這些不同領域創造巨大的機會。另外，如果你看看過去幾年記憶體領域發生的變化以及當今推動市場發展的因素，就會發現架構方面的巨大創新，而這種創新是由材料創新驅動的，這是我們比任何人都做得更好的地方。我們正在與一些大型公司合作，致力於擴展目前的儲存技術，擴大 3D NAND 的規模，但我們也在研究新的儲存技術。而且我真的相信創新的腳步將會加快。而這一切的基礎，其實是應用材料公司及其材料創新。所以我對整體市場機會相當樂觀，而且我對隨著這些變化發生而實現的成長地位也更加樂觀。

Your next question comes from Jagadish Iyer with Summit Redstone.

下一個問題來自 Summit Redstone 的 Jagadish Iyer。

Gary, you talked about Gen 10 fabs in the display side. So I was wondering how much of it is going to be OLED. And as a bigger picture, if this large-scale transformation to OLED happens, are we going to see a new baseline to your display revenues?

Gary，你談到了顯示器方面的第 10 代晶圓廠。所以我想知道其中有多少會是OLED螢幕。從更宏觀的角度來看，如果OLED大規模轉型真的發生，顯示器收入是否會迎來新的基準線？

So the Gen 10.5 factories are really focused on TV. And all of the 13 projects that we're tracking right now are not OLED factories. They're, again, large area. We're seeing an increase in terms of the area consumption for large screens. And it's way more efficient to go to these larger factories from a cost perspective. So that's what's driving that. I mean, certainly, we're also very optimistic about mobile OLED and the opportunities that we have there. We're still in the early innings. But the driver for Gen 10.5 is larger TV screens. I don't know, Bob, if you want to add anything else?

所以第 10.5 代工廠真正專注於電視。我們目前正在追蹤的 13 個項目中，沒有一個是 OLED 工廠。它們又是一個很大的區域。我們看到大螢幕的面積消耗量正在增加。從成本角度來看，去這些大型工廠生產效率高很多。這就是背後的驅動因素。我的意思是，當然，我們對行動 OLED 以及我們在該領域所擁有的機會也非常樂觀。我們現在還處於比賽初期。但第 10.5 代電視螢幕的出現，是推動其發展的主要因素。鮑勃，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的？

Yes, I think that's true. I do think there's a hell of a lot of upward directional arrows in general for the market. And so the new baseline of revenues is increasing for display, which was one of your second parts of your question, Jagadish. And if you look at the inflections, it's not just bigger TVs in my mind. It's not just OLED. Those are really powerful. I think there's other inflections like on your simple phone you have now, as you go to the wraparound, take the top and the bottom off the chin and the forehead, you get 40% more surface area. We sell surface area, whether it's layers or size.

是的，我認為沒錯。我認為總體而言，市場有許多向上上漲的跡象。因此，新的收入基數正在增加，這是你問題的第二部分，Jagadish。如果你仔細觀察這些變化，在我看來，這不只是電視機尺寸變大的問題。不僅僅是OLED。它們威力非常強大。我認為還有其他變化，就像你現在使用的這種簡單的手機一樣，當你採用環繞式設計，去掉下巴和額頭的頂部和底部，你就能獲得 40% 的額外表面積。我們出售的是表面積，無論是層數還是尺寸。

Then I think you're going to have foldable in a few years, which doubles the surface area of a phone or an iPad, I guess. And then eventually you're going to have some OLED proliferation, as you mentioned, TVs whether it's white OLED or something further down the road. All of these lead to more spending. Now the question people would ask a year or 2 ago is, gee whiz, historically, you might have $32 billion in WFE spending and $8 billion in display spending and shouldn't it stay at 25%? No, because the drivers are very different. I mean, display is huge application across the world in TVs, mobile phones, which everyone has, and the layer count to increase the visual content of that is doubling. So I think the potential of display market is pretty big.

我認為幾年後就會出現可折疊設備，這將使手機或 iPad 的表面積翻倍。然後最終，正如你所提到的，OLED 電視將會普及，無論是白色 OLED 電視還是未來更先進的 OLED 電視。所有這些都會導致支出增加。一兩年前人們可能會問，哎呀，從歷史上看，WFE 支出可能高達 320 億美元，顯示器支出可能高達 80 億美元，難道不應該保持在 25% 嗎？不，因為駕駛員的個性截然不同。我的意思是，顯示技術在全球範圍內應用廣泛，電視、手機等幾乎人手一台的設備都在使用，而為了增加視覺內容，顯示層的層數正在成倍增長。所以我認為顯示器市場的潛力非常大。

The next question comes from Toshi Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshi Hari。

I had a question on gross margins heading into next fiscal year. Bob, you talked about display growing 30% year-over-year. I'm guessing, at least at this point, you don't have as high expectations for the semiconductor business. Did you think you can improve gross margins into next fiscal year?

我有一個關於下一財年毛利率的問題。鮑勃，你之前說過展示廣告年增了 30%。我猜，至少目前來看，你對半導體產業並沒有抱太高的期望。你認為下一財年毛利率能夠提高嗎？

Our goal is to increase gross margins every year. I think this year we've done particularly well. We're going to be up a couple of points, almost 3. We're going to be up like 2.9 this year or something like that. We're up a lot, okay? Now that's a lot of things. I mean, I think we've executed by product across the line. So if you look at our gross margins on every single product in the company, every BU in the company, which number -- between AGS, service and semi -- like 13 businesses, every one of the gross margins is up from '13 to '17. So across the board, good execution. Mix this year is pretty good. It's a good semi year, but it's also a pretty big display and services year. So my take, there's an opportunity to grow next year, but we haven't run the models. But it will be hard to do as well as you do this year. So my average goal -- and Dan is going to go through the numbers, what I've said in the past, is our average goal is kind of 7/10 of a point a year. And if we do anything like that, we're already kind of ahead of the '19 model. So I think there's still room.

我們的目標是逐年提高毛利率。我認為我們今年做得特別好。我們會領先幾分，差不多3分。今年我們會領先2.9分左右。我們常常熬夜，好嗎？這可真是不少事兒。我的意思是，我認為我們已經全面貫徹了產品線。所以，如果你看一下公司裡每件產品、每個業務部門的毛利率，你會發現，從 AGS、服務到半導體，總共 13 個業務部門，每個業務部門的毛利率都從 2013 年到 2017 年有所提高。總體而言，執行得很好。今年的混音效果相當不錯。今年上半年業績不錯，但同時也是展覽和服務規模相當大的一年。所以我的看法是，明年有成長的機會，但我們還沒有進行模型分析。但今年要取得和你一樣的成績並不容易。所以我的平均目標——丹會詳細講解一下數字，我之前說過，我們的平均目標大概是每年提高0.7個百分點。如果我們採取類似的措施，我們就已經領先 2019 年車型了。所以我覺得還有發展空間。

Great. Thanks, Toshiya, for the question. Dan, would you like to make any closing remarks before we end the call?

偉大的。謝謝 Toshiya 的提問。丹，在通話結束前，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Sure, Mike. I think it's probably good to summarize a few key points from today's call. First, I hope you share our excitement that Applied's markets are substantially larger and more attractive than they've been historically. We expect another record quarter in Q4. We've got line of sight to continued momentum in Q1 and far beyond. Second, Applied is uniquely positioned to outperform our core market, further building on our leadership in semis, growing the unique opportunity we have in front of us in display and expanding the service businesses. Last -- third, we're more profitable than we've been, and we have many levers to keep driving the profitable growth. And lastly, I look forward to meeting all of you in New York at our Analyst Day on the 27th. And personally, I can't wait to show you how we're going to keep raising the ceiling on our performance in the years to come.

當然可以，麥克。我認為最好總結一下今天電話會議的幾個要點。首先，我希望您和我們一樣感到興奮，因為應用材料的市場規模比以往任何時候都更大、更具吸引力。我們預計第四季將再次創下歷史新高。我們預計第一季及以後將保持成長動能。其次，Applied 擁有獨特的優勢，能夠超越我們的核心市場，進一步鞏固我們在半導體領域的領先地位，抓住我們在顯示器領域的獨特機遇，並拓展服務業務。第三，我們現在的獲利能力比以前更強了，而且我們有很多方法可以繼續推動獲利成長。最後，我期待在27日於紐約舉行的分析師日活動與大家見面。就我個人而言，我迫不及待地想向你們展示，在未來的幾年裡，我們將如何持續提升我們的業績上限。

Mike, now back to you.

麥克，現在把鏡頭交還給你。

Great. Thanks, Dan. We'd like to thank everybody for joining us this afternoon. A replay of this call is going to be available on our website beginning at 5 p.m. Pacific Time today. And thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

偉大的。謝謝你，丹。感謝各位今天下午蒞臨。本次電話會議的錄音回放將於下午5點起在我們的網站上提供。今天是太平洋時間。感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。