應用材料 (AMAT) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call.

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. In a moment, I will turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Vice President of Investor Relations.

再次提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。稍後，我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁邁克爾·沙利文先生。

Thank you. In a moment, we will discuss the results for our fourth-quarter and FY16, which ended on October 30. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Bob Halliday, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。稍後我們將討論截至10月30日的第四季和2016財年的業績。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長加里·迪克森，以及我們的財務長鮑勃·哈利迪。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's [preview] of its industries, performance, products, share positions, profitability, and business outlook. The statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements, and are not guarantees of future performance. Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections, and assumptions as of November 17, 2016, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

在會議開始之前，請允許我提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括應用材料公司對其所在行業、業績、產品、市場份額、盈利能力和業務前景的展望。這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異，並且並非對未來績效的保證。有關這些風險和不確定性因素的信息，請參閱應用材料公司最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-Q表和8-K表。所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理階層截至2016年11月17日的估計、預測和假設，應用資料公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release, and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the Investors page of our website, at appliedmaterials.com. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP調整後的財務指標。與GAAP指標的調節表已包含在今天的獲利新聞稿以及我們的調節表幻燈片中，這些幻燈片可在我們網站appliedmaterials.com的投資者關係頁面上找到。現在，我將把電話會議交給Gary Dickerson。

Thanks, Mike. I am delighted to report that Applied Materials delivered record revenue and earnings in our fourth quarter, capping off an outstanding year. In FY16, we grew orders, revenue, and earnings to the highest levels in the Company's history, and made significant progress towards our longer-term strategic and financial goals.

謝謝，麥克。我很高興地報告，應用材料公司第四季度營收和利潤均創歷史新高，為這卓越的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。在2016財年，我們的訂單量、營收和利潤均達到公司歷史最高水平，並在實現長期策略和財務目標方面取得了顯著進展。

Some of our major accomplishments this year include: our highest Semiconductor orders and revenues since the year 2000; and record performance in Display and Service, where both groups exceeded all-time highs for orders and revenue. I want to thank all of our employees for their passion to create value for our customers and for making 2016 a great year for Applied. Looking ahead, I see tremendous capabilities, momentum, and opportunities across the Company. This gives me increased confidence that we will again drive sustainable growth in 2017 and beyond.

今年我們取得的主要成就包括：半導體業務訂單和收入均創下2000年以來的最高紀錄；顯示器和服務業務也取得了創紀錄的業績，這兩個業務板塊的訂單和收入均超過了歷史最高水平。我要感謝所有員工的熱情付出，他們致力於為客戶創造價值，並讓2016年成為應用材料公司輝煌的一年。展望未來，我看到了公司各方面的巨大潛力、發展動能和機會。這讓我更加確信，我們將在2017年及以後繼續保持永續成長。

In today's call, I will start by explaining some of the key factors contributing to our record performance and describe our strategy for long-term sustainable growth. I'll then provide our market view and describe why Applied has an increasingly positive outlook. I'll conclude with brief updates on our major businesses. After that, Bob will provide additional details about our results as well as his perspective on our future outlook.

在今天的電話會議中，我將首先解釋促成我們業績創紀錄的一些關鍵因素，並闡述我們實現長期可持續成長的策略。接下來，我將介紹我們對市場的看法，並解釋應用材料公司為何前景日益樂觀。最後，我將簡要報告我們主要業務的最新進展。之後，鮑伯將詳細介紹我們的業績以及他對公司未來前景的展望。

At Applied, our strategy of inflection-focused innovation leadership is delivering profitable growth. In both Semiconductor and Display, large multi-year inflections are enabled by materials innovation. Applied has, by far, the broadest and deepest capabilities in materials engineering. It's our ability to combine these competencies, technologies, and products that really sets us apart and allows us to sustainably grow faster than the markets we serve.

在應用材料公司，我們以「聚焦轉折點」的創新領導策略正在帶來獲利成長。在半導體和顯示器領域，材料創新推動了持續多年的重大轉折。應用材料公司在材料工程領域擁有迄今為止最廣泛、最深厚的能力。正是我們整合這些能力、技術和產品的能力，真正使我們脫穎而出，並使我們能夠以高於所服務市場平均的速度實現永續成長。

To fuel growth, we focused our organization investments to deliver highly differentiated solutions that enable customers to build new devices and structures that were never possible before. At the same time, we have implemented a new operating system for the Company that's driving repeatable success and increasing our product hit rate. A key element of this is our product development engine. We've already trained more than 5,000 engineers how to use these methods, and as a result, we now see inflections sooner, develop solutions faster, and generate higher residual value from our large install base of tools.

為了推動成長，我們集中組織資源，致力於提供高度差異化的解決方案，幫助客戶建構以往無法實現的全新設備和架構。同時，我們為公司實施了一套全新的營運體系，有效推動了可複製的成功，並提高了產品成功率。這其中的關鍵要素是我們的產品開發引擎。我們已培訓超過 5000 名工程師掌握這些方法，因此，我們現在能夠更快地洞察市場轉折點，更快地開發解決方案，並從龐大的工具用戶群中創造更高的剩餘價值。

Over the past few quarters, I talked about five major market drivers that are contributing to our record performance today and will fuel growth for years to come. These drivers are: leading-edge foundry and logic; 3D NAND; patterning; advanced display; and China. At our analyst event in September, we gave comprehensive updates on these five drivers. So, today, I will only cover two, where we have new information to share.

過去幾個季度，我談到了五大市場驅動因素，它們不僅推動了我們如今的業績創下歷史新高，也將持續推動未來幾年的成長。這些驅動因素包括：領先的晶圓代工和邏輯晶片；3D NAND快閃記憶體；圖形化技術；先進顯示技術；以及中國市場。在九月的分析師大會上，我們對這五大驅動因素進行了全面更新。因此，今天我只重點介紹其中兩個，因為我們有新的資訊要分享。

Let me start with patterning. At the analyst meeting, we said we expect our patterning opportunity to expand to around $3 billion by 2019, growing 2.3 times since 2012. In recent weeks, new details about EUV adoption have been made public, and this gives us increased confidence in these projections. Our model is consistent with others, and assumes that EUV will primarily be used for cuts and vias in foundry and logic applications. That is about 20% of the total patterning market. For the other 80%, we see customers expanding multi-patterning solution, and this significantly grows our addressable market.

首先，我想談談光刻技術。在分析師會議上，我們預計到2019年，光刻技術市場規模將成長至約30億美元，較2012年成長2.3倍。最近幾週，有關EUV光刻技術應用的新細節陸續公佈，這增強了我們對這些預測的信心。我們的模型與其他模型一致，假設EUV微影技術將主要用於晶圓代工和邏輯電路中的切割和過孔。這約佔整個光刻市場的20%。對於剩餘的80%，我們預期客戶將擴展多重光刻解決方案，這將顯著擴大我們的潛在市場。

Pulling all this together, we believe that in the most aggressive case for EUV adoption, our 2019 patterning opportunity will still grow to around $3 billion as previously forecasted. And scenarios where EUV adoption rates are slower than the most optimistic case, our patterning growth could be significantly higher.

綜合以上因素，我們認為，即使在EUV技術應用最為迅猛的情況下，2019年我們的圖案化市場機會仍將如先前預測的那樣增長至約30億美元。而如果EUV技術的普及速度低於最樂觀的預期，我們的圖案化市場成長幅度可能會顯著更高。

Looking beyond 2019, we see cuts and vias remaining the primary application for EUV, and our patterning opportunity continuing to expand. Patterning is an area where Applied is making significant investments, and has room to grow. We've already gained around 15 points of market share since 2012. We see strong customer pull for new materials-enabled patterning processes, where we have innovative new technologies and believe we can gain another 15 points of share by 2019.

展望2019年後，我們認為切割和通孔仍將是EUV的主要應用領域，而我們的圖形化業務機會將持續擴大。圖形化是應用材料公司投入大量資金的領域，並且仍有成長空間。自2012年以來，我們已經獲得了約15個百分點的市場份額。我們看到客戶對採用新型材料的圖形化製程有著強烈的需求，而我們在該領域擁有創新技術，並相信到2019年我們能夠再獲得15個百分點的市場份額。

My second update relates to Display. We announced that our equipment has been selected for the world's first Gen 10.5 LCD TV fab. The push to Gen 10.5 is driven by rapid growth in the market for large format TVs, 60 inches and above. A Gen 10.5 substrate is about 80% bigger than the current Gen .85 (sic -- see October 16, 2016, press release "8.5") standard, allowing customers to optimize output for larger screens.

我的第二個更新與顯示技術有關。我們宣布，我們的設備已被選中用於全球首家採用第 10.5 代液晶電視製造流程的工廠。推動第 10.5 代發展的動力源於 60 吋及以上大尺寸電視市場的快速成長。第 10.5 代基板比目前的第 8.5 代（原文如此——請參閱 2016 年 10 月 16 日新聞稿「8.5」）標準大 80% 左右，這使得客戶能夠針對更大螢幕最佳化輸出。

In addition, demand for our OLED manufacturing equipment is broadening. With this strength in both TV and mobile, we are increasing our estimate for 2017 Display capital spending. We now believe customers will invest around $2 billion more than 2016.

此外，對我們OLED製造設備的需求也不斷擴大。憑藉在電視和行動領域的強勁表現，我們提高了對2017年顯示器資本支出的預期。我們現在預計，客戶在2017年的投資額將比2016年增加約20億美元。

In the past few weeks we've also increased our forecast for wafer fab equipment. We now expect 2016 wafer fab equipment spending will be at least 5% higher than in 2015, driven by additional foundry capacity and incremental investments in 3D NAND. At the same time, our view of 2017 is strengthening. We believe spending will be higher this year, with logic and foundry investment remaining at robust levels, and growth in memory spending.

過去幾週，我們也上調了晶圓製造設備的預測。我們現在預計，2016 年晶圓製造設備支出將比 2015 年增加至少 5%，主要得益於代工產能的增加和對 3D NAND 技術的增量投資。同時，我們對 2017 年的展望也更加樂觀。我們認為今年的支出將會更高，邏輯晶片和代工投資將保持強勁水平，記憶體支出也將成長。

Looking further ahead, I am very excited about emerging trends in virtual and augmented reality, big data and artificial intelligence, and smart vehicles. These new drivers for Semiconductor and Display span consumer, enterprise, and industrial applications and layer on top of existing demand for mobility, PCs, and other consumer electronics. Our discussions with leading companies in these areas make it clear that these new applications create huge demand for memory and require major advances in silicon technology. These trends add to my view that demand for capital equipment is becoming less cyclical, and normalized annual spending is increasing over time.

展望未來，我對虛擬實境和擴增實境、大數據和人工智慧以及智慧汽車等領域的新興趨勢感到非常興奮。這些半導體和顯示器技術的新驅動力涵蓋消費、企業和工業應用，並在此基礎上進一步拓展了對行動裝置、個人電腦和其他消費性電子產品的現有需求。我們與這些領域領先企業的交流表明，這些新應用對記憶體提出了巨大的需求，並需要矽技術的重大進步。這些趨勢也印證了我的觀點，資本設備的需求週期性正在減弱，年度支出將隨著時間的推移而增長。

I will now talk about the progress we're making in each of our major businesses. In Semiconductor, we are seeing robust demand across the board, and as we said in September, we expect 2016 to be a strong share-gain year for Applied. Growth in our leadership businesses is being driven by foundry and logic inflections, and also by memory as epitaxy, implant, and rapid thermal processing are adopted in 3D NAND. In particular, we see strong growth in CMP where we've increased revenues around 60% since 2012, and metal CVD where we expect double-digit share gains this year.

接下來，我將談談我們在各項主要業務領域的進展。在半導體領域，我們看到各方面需求都十分強勁。正如我們在9月所說，我們預計2016年將是應用材料公司市佔率大幅成長的一年。我們領先業務的成長主要得益於晶圓代工和邏輯電路的轉型，以及記憶體領域的成長，例如外延、離子注入和快速熱處理等技術在3D NAND快閃記憶體中的應用。尤其值得一提的是，CMP業務成長強勁，自2012年以來營收成長了約60%；金屬CVD業務也表現出色，我們預計今年該業務的市佔率將實現兩位數成長。

Our leadership businesses are in a really great position to grow. In 2016, we converted well over 90% of our development positions to volume production wins. We are also making significant market share gains in etch and CVD. FY16 was our third consecutive year of growth in CVD, and fourth consecutive year of growth in etch, where revenues reached a nine-year high. Overall, our combined etch and CVD revenues exceeded $2.7 billion for the year.

我們的領先業務擁有非常強勁的成長潛力。 2016年，我們超過90%的研發項目都成功轉換為量產訂單。我們在蝕刻和化學氣相沉積（CVD）領域也取得了顯著的市佔率成長。 2016財年，我們的CVD業務連續第三年成長，蝕刻業務連續第四年成長，營收創下九年來的新高。全年，我們的蝕刻和CVD業務總收入超過27億美元。

I'm very excited by our product pipeline in etch and ALD. We are seeing rapid adoption of our innovative new solutions, including selective etch and Olympia ALD, that together generated more than $230 million of revenue this year. I'm also pleased with the progress we're making in Advanced Packaging. We have some great new products, and based on the positions we are winning, we expect to double our packaging revenues over the next 12 months.

我對我們在蝕刻和原子層沉積（ALD）領域的產品線感到非常興奮。我們看到，包括選擇性蝕刻和奧林匹亞原子層沉積在內的創新解決方案正在迅速普及，這些方案今年共創造了超過2.3億美元的收入。我也對我們在先進封裝領域的進展感到滿意。我們擁有一些非常棒的新產品，根據我們贏得的市場份額，我們預計未來12個月內封裝業務的收入將翻倍。

In Inspection and Process Control, we also delivered our highest-ever orders and revenue this year. In 2016, we believe that we will gain about 20 points of E-Beam Inspection share, around 7 points of share in E-Beam overall, and secure the number one position in this market. E-Beam is the fastest-growing segment in Inspection, and we are winning new applications that support sustainable share gains for years to come.

在檢測和製程控制領域，我們今年的訂單量和收入均創歷史新高。我們預計，2016年電子束檢測市佔率將成長約20個百分點，電子束整體市佔率將成長約7個百分點，並鞏固我們在該市場的領先地位。電子束是檢測領域成長最快的細分市場，我們正在贏得新的應用，這將支持我們在未來幾年內持續成長市場份額。

In Service, our strategy is to deliver more value to customers with our Advanced Service Products. Our service teams are more tightly aligned with our product groups than ever before. Together, they are reducing ramp times, improving device performance and yield, and optimizing output and operating costs for customers. In the fourth quarter, we set new records for both orders and revenue, and, when we look at year-on-year comparisons, we've now grown our Service business every single quarter for the past three years.

在服務方面，我們的策略是透過先進的服務產品為客戶創造更多價值。我們的服務團隊與產品團隊的協作比以往任何時候都更加緊密。他們攜手合作，縮短了產品上線時間，提升了設備性能和良率，並優化了客戶的產量和營運成本。第四季度，我們的訂單量和收入均創下新紀錄。與去年同期相比，我們的服務業務已連續三年每季成長。

Display is also setting records, with two large inflections driving growth. The first is large-format TVs driving investment in new, Gen 10 capacity. Large-format TV units are expected to grow at 15% to 20% annually, over the next three years, compared to single-digit growth rates for TVs overall.

顯示領域也屢創新高，兩大成長點推動了市場發展。首先是大尺寸電視的需求推動了對第十代新型顯示技術的投資。預計未來三年，大尺寸電視的年增率將達到15%至20%，而電視整體的成長率僅為個位數。

The second is OLED, where investment is increasing as multiple customers start to ramp this technology and battle for leadership in next-generation mobile screens. At our analyst meeting, we said that our market opportunity in Display is expanding significantly, up to 10 times in the case of OLED.

第二大領域是OLED，隨著眾多客戶開始大規模應用這項技術並爭奪下一代行動螢幕的領先地位，相關投資正在增加。在我們的分析師會議上，我們提到顯示領域的市場機會正在顯著擴大，OLED的市場規模甚至可能成長10倍。

We are focused on building out our product portfolio to deliver the solutions our customers need to transition to new display products over the next few years. We have great traction with our new thin-film encapsulation and E-Beam review products, and have more significant new products that will be announced in 2017.

我們致力於拓展產品組合，為客戶提供未來幾年過渡到新型顯示產品所需的解決方案。我們的新型薄膜封裝和電子束檢測產品已取得顯著市場反響，並將於2017年發布更多重要新產品。

In summary, I strongly believe this is Applied's time. We set new performance records in 2016, and we are seeing the impact of the investments we've made in our organization and product pipeline over the past several years. As we look ahead to 2017 and beyond, we see strength in our markets as large multi-year inflections continue to evolve, and new emerging demand drivers layer on top of mobility and computing.

總而言之，我堅信現在是應用材料公司大展拳腳的時代。我們在2016年創下了新的業績紀錄，並且我們已經看到了過去幾年在組織架構和產品線方面所做投資的成效。展望2017年及以後，我們看到市場依然強勁，因為多年來的重大變革仍在持續發展，而新興的需求驅動因素也不斷湧現，進一步推動了行動性和運算能力的提升。

Across the Company we are focused on extending our innovation leadership. Applied solutions are enabling customers to build new devices and structures that were never possible before. This puts us in a unique position to drive sustainable growth and raise the ceiling on our financial performance. Now, let me hand the call over to Bob, who will provide more details about our results and outlook. Bob?

公司上下都致力於鞏固我們在創新領域的領先地位。我們應用的解決方案正幫助客戶打造前所未有的新型設備和結構。這使我們擁有獨特的優勢，能夠推動永續成長，並提升財務表現的上限。現在，我將把電話交給鮑勃，他將詳細介紹我們的業績和展望。鮑伯？

Thanks, Gary. In September, we raised the ceiling on our expectations for our markets and our Company. Since then, we've increased our 2016 WFE forecast to a range of $33.5 billion to $34 billion. Our internal projection for 2017 WFE is $1 billion higher than that, and it assumes only modest DRAM investment, China spending, and NAND penetration of hard drives. So our early view on 2018, and the longer-term horizon, is positive as well.

謝謝，Gary。 9月份，我們提高了對市場和公司的預期上限。自那以後，我們將2016年WFE（晶圓廠設備）的預測範圍上調至335億美元至340億美元。我們對2017年WFE的內部預測比此高出10億美元，而這項預測則是基於DRAM投資、中國市場支出以及NAND閃存在硬碟中的滲透率都較為溫和的假設。因此，我們對2018年的早期展望以及更長期的發展前景也持樂觀態度。

So, while our analyst day was just eight weeks ago, I already feel more confident in our ability to hit our 2019 financial model. After the analyst day, the slide that sparked the most interest was the one comparing average WFE spending, and the standard deviation around the average for two periods: 2000 through 2009; and 2010 through 2016. What really caught everyone's attention was that one standard deviation fell, from $8 billion in the earlier period to $2.7 billion since. The WFE industry has evolved since 2010, and that deserves some discussion. I'll give you the major factors that lead me to believe it is a fundamentally more stable and attractive business.

所以，雖然我們的分析師日才過去八週，但我已經對我們實現2019年財務目標的能力更有信心了。分析師日之後，最引人關注的投影片是比較兩個時期（2000年至2009年和2010年至2016年）的平均WFE支出及其標準差的圖表。真正吸引大家注意的是，標準差下降了一個單位，從前一時期的80億美元降至後一時期的27億美元。 WFE產業自2010年以來發生了變化，這值得探討。接下來，我將闡述讓我相信這是一個更穩定且更具吸引力的產業的主要因素。

First, the semiconductor industry we serve has become larger, more diversified, and less volatile. Specifically, semi content was led by PCs, which had multi-year demand cycles, timed to enterprise upgrades. Now we've added mobility, which has annual consumer replacement cycles, and generates more semi revenue than PCs. And today, we are layering on additional semi demand drivers including big data, IoT, cloud infrastructure, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and self-driving cars.

首先，我們所服務的半導體產業規模更大、更多元化，波動性也更低。具體來說，過去半導體市場主要由個人電腦主導，其需求週期長達數年，與企業升級週期密切相關。如今，行動領域也加入了進來，其消費換代週期為一年，且產生的半導體收入超過了個人電腦。而現在，大數據、物聯網、雲端基礎設施、人工智慧、虛擬實境和自動駕駛汽車等其他半導體需求驅動因素也不斷湧現。

Second, the cycles of the past were mainly driven by PC DRAM, which was the largest, most competitive, and most generic technology. Today, DRAM is near the bottom in spending, there are fewer producers, and their designs have been tailored to servers and mobile devices, including multi-chip stacks. It's no longer one size fits all.

其次，過去的周期主要由PC DRAM驅動，它是規模最大、競爭最激烈、通用性最強的技術。如今，DRAM的支出已接近谷底，生產商也越來越少，而且其設計已針對伺服器和行動裝置進行了定制，包括多晶片堆疊。它不再是萬能的了。

Third, NAND spending has surpassed DRAM, and NAND continues to unlock growth potential as the gigabyte cost approaches hard drives. Fourth, foundry capacity additions tend to be contract based and demand driven, rather than supply driven, and foundry has gone from being the smallest category to the biggest today. And fifth, our customers now add capacity on a more flexible basis, building out lines and line extensions instead of entire mega fabs.

第三，NAND快閃記憶體的支出已經超過DRAM，而且隨著每千兆快閃記憶體的成本接近硬碟，NAND快閃記憶體的成長潛力仍在不斷釋放。第四，晶圓代工產能的增加往往是基於合約和需求驅動，而非供應驅動，而晶圓代工業務也從曾經規模最小的產業一躍成為如今規模最大的產業。第五，我們的客戶現在以更靈活的方式增加產能，他們選擇建造生產線或進行生產線擴展，而不是建造整個巨型晶圓廠。

Not only has the industry changed, but Applied has changed in ways that give us larger and more diverse revenues and profits. Over the past few years, we have achieved relatively balanced market share across all of the semiconductor device types.

不僅產業格局發生了變化，應用半導體公司也隨之轉型，從而獲得了更大、更多元化的收入和利潤。過去幾年，我們在所有半導體裝置類型中都實現了相對均衡的市場份額。

Most of our businesses are now benefiting from 3D NAND, and our success in NAND has been a springboard to our new patterning wins in DRAM. At the same time, we've greatly expanded our Service business, whose revenues are up by over 30% in just the past three years. By 2019, this relatively stable business should deliver almost a quarter of our revenue, and an even greater percentage of our operating profits.

我們的大部分業務目前都受惠於3D NAND技術，而我們在NAND領域的成功也為我們在DRAM領域的新圖案化技術突破奠定了基礎。同時，我們的服務業務也大幅拓展，光是在過去三年中，收入就成長了30%以上。到2019年，這項相對穩定的業務預計將貢獻我們近四分之一的收入，以及更高比例的營業利潤。

And Applied is uniquely positioned as the equipment leader in Display. We are on track to triple our overall opportunity with new Display products, and we are accelerating our Display pipeline by leveraging our Semiconductor IP, including E-Beam, identifying new technology through Applied ventures, and securing R&D co-funding.

Applied 在顯示設備領域擁有得天獨厚的優勢。我們預計將整體機遇擴大三倍，並且我們正在利用包括電子束在內的半導體知識產權、透過 Applied 風險投資公司發掘新技術以及獲得研發聯合資助來加速我們的顯示產品線。

In both Semi and Display, we can point to specific inflections and winning products that will drive our growth through the model period and beyond. And, in all of our markets, I believe we are demonstrating systemic improvements in our ability to outperform. The better allocation spending, more efficient execution, and product development engine are now culturally ingrained.

在半導體和顯示器業務領域，我們都能指出一些關鍵的轉折點和致勝產品，它們將推動我們在本模型週期及以後實現成長。而且，我相信，在我們所有的市場中，我們都展現了系統性的提升，以便能夠更好地超越競爭對手。更合理的資金配置、更有效率的執行以及強大的產品研發體系，如今已深深融入我們的企業文化。

Now, what's the significance of this greater stability? I'll mention just three things. First, our order variations now reflect seasonality more than cyclicality. We are focused on driving year-over-year revenue and earnings growth, and we plan to stop reporting quarterly orders as of 2016. To help you feel comfortable with this change, I'm telling you now that I expect our Q1 of FY17 orders to be meaningfully higher in both Semi and Display. I also plan to detail our Q1 orders on the February call, so you can have a complete set of data for your calendar 2016 models.

那麼，這種更高的穩定性又意味著什麼呢？我僅舉三點。首先，我們的訂單波動現在更反映了季節性因素而非週期性因素。我們專注於推動營收和利潤的年增率，並計劃從2016年起停止公佈季度訂單。為了幫助您更好地理解這一變化，我提前告知您，我預計2017財年第一季半導體和顯示器業務的訂單量將顯著增長。我還計劃在2月份的電話會議上詳細介紹第一季的訂單情況，以便您能夠獲得完整的2016年日曆模型數據。

Second, this stability gives us a unique opportunity to get closer to our customers, and here is why. The technology roadmaps are getting harder, so customers increasingly want to work with the most capable suppliers, and we are the broadest and most capable. Today, our customers are asking us to engage earlier and ramp new enabling technologies much sooner and more aggressively. This costs money. But the more stable business environment gives us confidence that we can invest more in our customers' roadmaps and generate more attractive risk-adjusted returns.

其次，這種穩定性為我們提供了一個獨特的契機，讓我們能夠更貼近客戶，原因如下。技術路線圖的難度日益增加，因此客戶越來越希望與能力最強的供應商合作，而我們正是覆蓋面最廣、能力最強的供應商。如今，客戶要求我們更早介入，並更快、更積極地推廣新的賦能技術。這需要投入資金。但更穩定的商業環境讓我們更有信心，能夠增加對客戶路線圖的投入，並獲得更具吸引力的風險調整後效益。

Three, the stability helps us deliver higher, more predictable profits, and increase cash flow. It's great for our financial stability. Eight weeks ago, we showed you our 2019 financial model. Some of you realized that we plan to generate substantial free cash flow, well beyond what is needed to achieve our share count objective. We regularly evaluate the best means of returning excess cash to shareholders, and we know some shareholders value dividend growth as much as buybacks. We are evaluating our options for this additional liquidity, and we're monitoring the tax policy environment for any changes that could influence our thinking about the mix.

第三，穩定性有助於我們實現更高、更可預測的利潤，並增加現金流。這對我們的財務穩定性大有裨益。八週前，我們向大家展示了2019年的財務模型。一些讀者已經意識到，我們計劃產生可觀的自由現金流，遠遠超過實現股份數量目標所需的金額。我們會定期評估將剩餘現金回饋給股東的最佳方式，我們也知道一些股東對股利成長的重視程度與股票回購不相上下。我們正在評估這部分額外流動性的各種方案，並密切關注稅收政策環境的變化，以免影響我們對資金組合的考量。

Now, I'll shift gears and comment on our performance during Q4. I'll focus on our revenues and profits, as compared to the same period last year. We grew Company revenue by 39% year over year, and more than doubled our non-GAAP earnings per share. We increased non-GAAP gross margin by 1.5 points year over year, and our spending discipline helped us to increase non-GAAP operating profit by 82% year over year. The non-GAAP tax rate was a little lower than expected, due to a favorable geographic mix.

現在，我將轉換話題，談談我們第四季的業績。我將重點放在我們的營收和利潤，並與去年同期進行比較。公司營收年增39%，非GAAP每股收益成長超過一倍。非GAAP毛利率年增1.5個百分點，而嚴格的支出控制也幫助我們實現了非GAAP營業利潤年增82%。由於地理分佈有利，非GAAP稅率略低於預期。

At the segment level, we grew Semiconductor Systems revenue by 42% year over year, and segment non-GAAP operating margin by 9.1 points. We increased Service revenues by 13% year over year, and non-GAAP operating profit by 1.9 points. And we grew Display revenue by 92% year over year, and non-GAAP operating profit by 10.9 points.

從業務部門來看，半導體系統業務收入年增42%，非GAAP營業利潤率成長9.1個百分點；服務業務收入年增13%，非GAAP營業利潤成長1.9個百分點；顯示器業務收入較去年同期成長92%，非GAAP營業利潤成長10.9個百分點。

Moving to the balance sheet, we delivered strong operating cash flow of $797 million in Q4, or 24% of revenue. We grew total cash and investments to $4.68 billion, after returning $279 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. For the year, we distributed 106% of free cash flow to shareholders. At year end, about 14% of cash and investments were onshore. The on-shore balance has since increased to roughly 45%, reflecting the effects of intra-Company transactions.

從資產負債表來看，我們第四季實現了強勁的營運現金流，達到7.97億美元，佔營收的24%。透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了2.79億美元後，我們的現金和投資總額增加至46.8億美元。全年，我們向股東分配了106%的自由現金流。年末，約14%的現金和投資位於境內。此後，由於公司內部交易的影響，境內現金和投資的比例已增至約45%。

Now, I'll provide our guidance for the first quarter of 2017. We expect our overall revenue to be close to the record levels set in Q4. Our expectation represents year-over-year growth of approximately 45%, plus or minus 3 points. Within this outlook, Semiconductor Systems revenue should be near the 15-year high achieved in Q4. This forecast represents year-over-year growth of about 55%, plus or minus 3 points.

現在，我將提供我們對2017年第一季的業績展望。我們預計整體營收將接近第四季創下的歷史新高。我們的預期年成長率約為45%，上下浮動3個百分點。在此預期範圍內，半導體系統業務的營收應接近第四季創下的15年來的最高水準。此預測年增率約為55%，上下浮動3個百分點。

Services revenue is seasonally lower in Q1, but we expect it to be up by about 10% year over year, plus or minus 2 points. And Display revenue should be up by about 65% year over year, plus or minus 10 points. Our non-GAAP earnings per share should be in the range of $0.62 to $0.70, the midpoint of which would be up by 154% year over year. As a reminder, Q1 of 2016 was a 14-week quarter.

服務收入在第一季通常較低，但我們預期其年增約10%，上下浮動2個百分點。顯示業務收入預計年增約65%，上下浮動10個百分點。我們的非GAAP每股盈餘預計在0.62美元至0.70美元之間，其中數值將年增154%。需要注意的是，2016年第一季為14週。

Since it is the first quarter of a new year, I'll help you with your modeling questions. In Q1, non-GAAP gross margin is likely to be up by about 1 point, from 43.7% in Q4, reflecting very positive mix. For the full year, we expect gross margin to reach approximately 44%, which would bring us to within 60 basis points of the midpoint of our 2019 model. Non-GAAP OpEx is likely to be $625 million in Q1, plus or minus $10 million. Our quarterly run rate in the balance of the year may be approximately $635 million, which remains below the model. Our non-GAAP tax rate is likely to be around 11%, which is at the model. And we will continue to buy back shares to achieve the share count target in the model.

由於現在是新年第一季度，我將協助您解答有關模型的問題。第一季度，非GAAP毛利率可能較第四季的43.7%上升約1個百分點，反映出非常積極的產品組合。我們預計全年毛利率將達到約44%，這將使我們與2019年模型的中位數相差不到60個基點。第一季非GAAP營運支出可能為6.25億美元，上下浮動1000萬美元。今年剩餘時間的季度營運支出可能約為6.35億美元，仍低於模型預測值。我們的非GAAP稅率可能在11%左右，與模型預測值一致。我們將繼續回購股票，以達到模型預測的股份數量目標。

In summary, we delivered new levels of revenue and profitability in 2016, and demonstrated the benefits of the strategy we've been working to implement over the past several years. But this is just the beginning. The industry is bigger and more attractive. Our opportunity set is larger, our customer relationships are stronger, and our new product pipeline is better than ever. We've raised the ceiling with our 2019 target financial model and we're making excellent progress already. Our stronger performance is sustainable and we're confident in our ability to deliver increasingly predictable cash returns to our shareholders. Now, Mike. Let's start the Q&A.

總而言之，我們在2016年實現了營收和獲利能力的新高，並證明了我們過去幾年一直致力於實施的策略的成效。但這只是個開始。行業規模更大，更具吸引力。我們的機會更多，客戶關係更牢固，新產品線也比以往任何時候都更加完善。我們提高了2019年的目標財務模型，並且已經取得了顯著進展。我們強勁的業績是可持續的，我們有信心為股東帶來越來越可預測的現金回報。好了，麥克，讓我們開始問答環節吧。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝你，鮑伯。

(Caller Instructions)

（來電者指示）

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

CJ Muse, Evercore.

CJ Muse，Evercore。

Good afternoon, thank you for taking the question. I guess if you look back, or at least the implied guide for calendar 2016, or for Q4 you're growing roughly 24plus%. If you think about mix next year, I'm assuming growing Display, growing NAND -- how should we think about your relative out-performance to the rest of the industry?

下午好，感謝您回答這個問題。我想，如果回顧過去，或至少參考2016年全年或第四季的業績指引，你們的成長率大約在24%以上。如果考慮明年的業務組合，我假設顯示業務和NAND快閃記憶體業務都在成長——我們應該如何看待你們相對於其他行業的優異表現？

Sure. In our fiscal year and our calendar year next year, we think in Semi, it's going to be healthier in general for the environment. We feel good about the environment, but we are going to gain share.

當然。就我們目前的財年和明年的日曆年而言，我們認為塞邁公司整體上會對環境更有利。我們對環境保護感到滿意，同時也希望擴大市場佔有率。

We don't want to give the exact numbers right now, but we are going to gain WFE share next year in a number of places. And in Display, we see Display revenues up a significant amount next year. And then we see the Service business continue to grow.

我們現在不方便透露具體數字，但明年我們將在多個領域提升WFE（無線終端設備）的市場份額。在顯示領域，我們預計明年顯示業務收入將大幅成長。此外，服務業務也將持續保持成長動能。

So we will outperform the markets we're in, but additionally, we think the markets are pretty good next year. Our outlook is WFE is up. Our outlook is that spending on Display equipment is up, and Services will be good.

因此，我們將跑贏我們所處的市場，我們認為明年市場前景相當不錯。我們預計WFE（倉儲設備支出）將會成長。我們預期顯示設備支出將會成長，服務業也將表現良好。

Thank you. Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

謝謝。高盛集團的Toshiya Hari。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Bob, you talked about 2017 WFE being up about $1 billion based on modest expectations for DRAM, China, and NAND. Can you dig a little a bit deeper into those three items, and give a little color as to what you are assuming in the model?

太好了。謝謝你回答我的問題。鮑勃，你之前提到，基於對DRAM、中國市場和NAND快閃記憶體的保守預期，2017年WFE（晶圓廠設備）市場規模將成長約10億美元。你能否更深入地探討這三項內容，並詳細說明一下你的模型假設？

Sure. Part of what we were answering there was, that we think there is wind at our back into 2018, too. So, if you look at 2017 we think NAND is up next year, we think foundry is strong, and we think logic is pretty good. DRAM up some next year, but what we don't see is high levels of absolute DRAM spending, because this year is not too big.

當然。我們剛剛回答的部分內容是，我們認為2018年也會有利因素。所以，回顧2017年，我們認為NAND快閃記憶體明年會成長，晶圓代工業務強勁，邏輯電路也相當不錯。 DRAM明年也會有所成長，但我們預期DRAM的絕對支出不會很高，因為今年DRAM的需求量並不大。

What we are modeling, and we might be a little conservative, is not a big change in China spending. We think that hits more in 2018, if you just look at buildings and shells and stuff like that. We are big believers China is going to happen, but we think we have wind at our back into 2018 based on a few things. We think China ramps a fair amount more in 2018, we think DRAM probably has upside in 2018, not to mention some of these alter-form memories we're starting to see early, now.

我們目前的模型預測（或許略顯保守）是，中國支出不會大幅變動。我們認為，如果只看建築和外殼之類的項目，2018年的影響會更大。我們堅信中國市場將會蓬勃發展，而且基於以下幾點，我們認為2018年我們將迎來強勁的成長動能。我們認為中國市場在2018年將大幅提升，DRAM（動態記憶體）在2018年也可能迎來上漲空間，更不用說我們現在已經開始看到的一些新型記憶體了。

And thirdly, NAND, by the end of next year is probably going to get to about 700,000 wafer starts, so it's about 1.4 million. And we think all of that eventually -- virtually all of that, gets converted, so we think there's still strong NAND spending in 2018.

第三，到明年年底，NAND快閃記憶體的晶圓開工量可能會達到70萬片左右，也就是大約140萬片。我們認為最終幾乎所有這些晶圓都會被轉換，所以我們認為2018年NAND快閃記憶體的支出仍然會很強勁。

Thanks, Toshiya.

謝謝，Toshiya。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Good afternoon, and good job on the quarterly execution. One of the key takeaways from the analyst meeting, was the order trajectory. So specifically book-to-bill as a leading indicator of the revenue and the earnings power momentum. The past four years you guys have had book-to-bill greater than one, and obviously clearly an indicator of the growth of the business. As you look at your customer and program pipeline for FY17, combined with your view on growth in soft panel and WFE, initiatory spending growth, is 2017 likely to be the fifth consecutive year of book-to-bill greater than one for the team?

下午好，季度業績執行得不錯​​。分析師會議的關鍵要點是訂單趨勢，特別是訂單出貨比作為收入和獲利成長動能的領先指標。過去四年，你們的訂單出貨比一直大於1，這顯然是業務成長的有力指標。考慮到2017財年的客戶和專案儲備，以及你們對軟面板和WFE（木工設備）成長和初始支出成長的看法，你們團隊是否有可能連續第五年維持訂單出貨比大於1？

What we said earlier in the call was that we see our bookings continuing strong, but the voluntary bookings quarter-to-quarter, in particular, we are going to stop reporting bookings after Q1. We're going to give it to you in Q1.

我們在先前的電話會議中提到過，我們預計預訂量將繼續保持強勁勢頭，但特別是自願預訂量，我們將在第一季之後停止公佈。我們會在第一季公佈相關數據。

Q1 we see up meaningfully. What we mean by meaningfully is, up more than strong double-digits from Q4.

第一季我們看到顯著成長。所謂顯著成長，是指較第四季實現兩位數以上的強勁成長。

People have been worried that we peaked in Q3, bookings down some in Q4. We see a strong Q1s, and we see a strong year overall. We think the momentum is still with us, and our revenues are going to be up, and our shares are going to be up next year.

人們一直擔心我們在第三季已經達到業績峰值，第四季預訂量有所下降。但我們預期第一季業績強勁，全年整體表現也將十分出色。我們認為目前的成長動能依然強勁，明年我們的營收和股價都將上漲。

In terms of quarterly variability in orders, I'm the sure. In terms of book-to-bill next year, we don't have clarity on the second half yet. It's too early for us to tell, but we see a strong WFE year, share up, strong spending on Display. Frankly, it's more strong in both those, than we saw eight weeks ago. For instance the large TVs are doing well, the Gen 10 stuff, of the profitability of the Display guys, is good. So we see Display as pretty darn strong next year.

就季度訂單波動而言，我對此很有把握。至於明年的訂單出貨比，我們目前還無法確定下半年的情況。現在下結論還為時過早，但我們預計明年WFE業務將表現強勁，市佔率將有所提升，顯示業務支出也將大幅成長。坦白說，這兩方面都比八週前的情況更強勁。例如，大尺寸電視表現良好，第十代產品也表現不錯，顯示業務的獲利能力也很好。因此，我們預計明年顯示業務將非常強勁。

We see breadthening of demand for mobile display, up to nine or ten people trying to make OLED displays, now, for mobile. And then within WFE, we get a lot of pull from customers to increase production and shipments. We think overall next year, we think we're going to have very healthy bookings whether it's where it is relative to one, I don't know right now.

我們看到行動顯示器的需求正在擴大，現在有九到十家公司都在嘗試生產用於行動裝置的OLED顯示器。同時，在WFE領域，我們也收到了來自客戶的大量需求，希望提高產量和出貨量。我們認為明年整體訂單量會非常可觀，至於具體情況如何，我現在還無法確定。

Thanks, Harlan.

謝謝你，哈蘭。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

Timothy Arcuri，Cowen and Company。

Thank you very much. Bob, I'm sort of curious on China, how much you're putting in? I know that you think China is sort of generally more of a 2018 thing than a 2017 thing, but I'm wondering if you can give us some numbers in terms of what is embedded in your WFE forecast next year for China, versus what it was this year? Thanks.

非常感謝。鮑勃，我對中國市場有點好奇，你對中國的預測有多少？我知道你認為中國市場整體上更體現在2018年而不是2017年，但我很想知道你能否提供一些數據，說明你明年對中國市場的經濟預測中包含了哪些因素，以及這些因素與今年相比有何不同？謝謝。

Well I will tell you -- I will give you a sense of what is in the numbers, and then I'll give you my qualitative assessment of the numbers a little bit. We think it's down a little bit next year, but -- the numbers say it is down a little bit next year, but we think it's flat. So, I think I'm probably conservative on that. So what is buried in my numbers, is down a little bit, but we think there's probably upside to that to be honest with you.

好吧，我會先跟你說說這些數據，然後再簡單分析一下我的定性評估。我們認為明年會略有下降，但——雖然數據顯示明年會略有下降，但我們認為會持平。所以，我覺得我的預測可能比較保守。因此，我的數據中隱含的下降趨勢是略有下降，但說實話，我們認為可能還有上升空間。

Gary's shaking his head, that he definitely doesn't think it is down next year. (laughter)

加里搖了搖頭，表示他絕對不認為明年會下降。 （笑聲）

Yes, I would say that -- Applied, we are strong in all regions including China. As we've talked about before it's one of the strongest regions in Semi and Display. Right now, it looks like 2017 is going to be roughly the same as 201,6 but it's up a pretty significant amount from where we were a couple of years ago. 2018, we think, could be meaningfully up above the 2017 forecast. Those are my thoughts.

是的，我認為應用材料在包括中國在內的所有地區都實力雄厚。正如我們之前討論過的，中國是半導體和顯示領域最強勁的地區之一。目前來看，2017年的業績預計與2016年大致持平，但比幾年前的水平有了顯著提升。我們認為，2018年的業績可能會大幅超過2017年的預期。以上就是我的看法。

Thanks, gentlemen.

謝謝各位先生。

Atif Malik, Citigroup.

阿提夫·馬利克，花旗集團。

Thanks for taking my question, and great job on the quarter. A question for Gary. Gary, thanks for the update on the patterning with the vias, and the [votez] on EUV. On the Display side, can you just give us a little bit of an update or preview on what some of the new products that you're working on, on the OLED side, plan to achieve? Are these products meant to remove the supply chain bottlenecks, or are they going to target some of the cost of ownership, or other technology challenges?

感謝您回答我的問題，本季的工作非常出色。我還有一個問題想問Gary。 Gary，感謝您提供的通孔圖案化和EUV光刻技術的最新消息。在顯示器方面，您能否簡單介紹一下您正在研發的OLED新產品，以及它們的預期目標？這些產品旨在解決供應鏈瓶頸問題，還是著眼於降低整體擁有成本或其他技術挑戰？

Sure, thanks for the question. Our strategy overall, is inflection-focused innovation. What we've talked about in Display, is an opportunity to triple our served market over the next few years.

當然，謝謝你的提問。我們的整體策略是以轉折點為導向的創新。我們在顯示技術領域討論過，未來幾年我們有機會將服務市場擴大三倍。

The team in Display is really, really an outstanding team, driving innovative new products, targeting major customer inflections. You can already see growth in Display with thin-film encapsulation and E-beam, two products that we've introduced in the last couple of years that are already generating meaningful revenue for the Display business.

顯示器團隊確實非常出色，他們致力於研發創新產品，並瞄準重要的客戶需求成長點。薄膜封裝和電子束微影技術是我們在過去幾年推出的兩項產品，目前已為顯示器業務帶來了可觀的收入，您在這些方面已經可以看到顯示器業務的成長。

And so we're really continuing this same play-book. We're focused on inflections that are meaningful for our customers. We have very strong pull and investment from customers in these new products, and high confidence that these new businesses will add meaningful revenue for our Display business, and increased confidence that we are going to hit or exceed the model that we showed for 2019. We will disclose more about the specific products in 2017, next year.

因此，我們將繼續沿用先前的策略。我們專注於對客戶有意義的轉折點。客戶對這些新產品的需求和投資非常強勁，我們高度確信這些新業務將為我們的顯示器業務帶來可觀的收入，並且我們更有信心達到甚至超越2019年的預期目標。我們將在2017年，也就是明年，公佈更多關於具體產品的資訊。

And then I think Atif asked two questions, even though I asked for one and I wonder if you can comment on the EUV?

然後我覺得阿提夫問了兩個問題，儘管我只問了一個問題。我想知道您是否可以對 EUV 發表一些看法？

Oh, sure. We talked about patterning at our investor meeting in New York, and we see patterning as a great opportunity. We forecasted about a $3 billion TAM by 2019, and when we look at EUV adoption, we agree with others that the view of EUV is going to be mostly focused on vias, and cuts and logic.

當然。我們在紐約的投資人會議上討論過圖案化技術，我們認為圖案化技術蘊藏著巨大的商機。我們預測2019年，圖案化技術的潛在市場規模將達到30億美元左右。展望EUV技術的應用前景，我們和其他人一樣認為，EUV技術的應用主要將集中在通孔、切割和邏輯電路等。

When you look at the leading customer roadmass, vias, and cuts and logics is about 20% of the total patterning TAM. 80% of the TAM will continue to add multi-patterning. And that gives us increased confidence in this $3 billion estimate, that we had at our investor meeting.

當你觀察主要客戶時，你會發現，路基、過孔、切割和邏輯電路大約佔整個圖案化市場規模的20%。而80%的市場規模將持續增加多重圖案化。這讓我們對在投資人會議上做出的30億美元的市場規模預測更有信心。

Basically, if you take the most aggressive EUV assumption for adoption, something like ten layers adopted at 5-nanometer logic, for vias and cuts you come up to the $3 billion estimate. Of course if it is not in this most aggressive assumption, then the TAM could be higher.

基本上，如果採用最樂觀的EUV技術應用假設，例如5奈米邏輯製程採用十層封裝（包括通孔和切割），那麼市場規模估計為30億美元。當然，如果實際應用規模並非如此樂觀，那麼市場規模可能會更高。

And Applied is really in a great position to gain share. We talked about a $1 billion number in our model for 2019 for Applied, and we have great confidence in that number. We already gained 15 points of share in patterning since 2012.

Applied公司確實處於非常有利的地位，並有望擴大市場佔有率。我們在2019年的預測模型中提到Applied公司的營收將達到10億美元，我們對此非常有信心。自2012年以來，我們在圖案設計領域的市佔率已經成長了15個百分點。

We're forecasting at least 15% more between now and 2019. Really great products in etch, in selective removal, CVD, ALD, CMP, really, really, really great new products. And we have line of sight to the 2019 model, with many application wins and increasing customer pull for these innovative new products.

我們預測，從現在到2019年，銷量至少會成長15%。蝕刻、選擇性去除、CVD、ALD、CMP等領域都將推出真正優秀的新產品，絕對是令人驚豔的新產品。我們對2019年的發展前景充滿信心，相信憑藉眾多應用案例的成功以及客戶對這些創新產品的持續需求，我們將取得顯著的成果。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Steven Chin, UBS.

Steven Chin，瑞銀集團。

Thanks. Hi, Gary and Bob. So, I have a follow-up question on your 2017 view on foundry logic, WFE. Does your 2017 view assume there will be much foundry logic customer reuse of10-nanometer equipment or the 7-nanometer node, or does it assume limited equipment reuse by foundry logic? Thanks.

謝謝。嗨，Gary 和 Bob。關於你們 2017 年對晶圓代工邏輯和晶圓前端 (WFE) 的看法，我有一個後續問題。你們 2017 年的觀點是假設晶圓代工邏輯客戶會大量重複使用 10 奈米或 7 奈米節點的設備，還是假設晶圓代工邏輯對設備的複用非常有限？謝謝。

Sure. We've had a couple of questions on peak questions, and reuse. Let me give you some context on how we look at the business, then I'll answer your specific question, Stephen.

當然。我們收到了一些關於峰值問題和復用率的問題。史蒂芬，我先簡單介紹一下我們看待這項業務的方式，然後再回答你的具體問題。

We actually really believe three things. One that the industry is growing more and more attractive in which we compete. Total spending is trending up and volatility is trending down in both WFE and in capital spending for Displays.

我們真心相信三件事。第一，我們所處的產業越來越有吸引力。顯示器領域的總支出呈上升趨勢，而WFE（展廳設備）和資本支出的波動性則呈現下降趨勢。

Secondly, Applied, I think, is trending up in terms of the breath of our product offerings and reduced volatilities. We have a similar share across NAND, foundry, DRAM and logic. We are gaining share. We have a deep product pipeline.

其次，我認為應用科技在產品種類豐富度和波動性降低方面都呈現上升趨勢。我們在NAND快閃記憶體、晶圓代工、DRAM和邏輯電路領域的市佔率相近，並且不斷擴大。我們擁有豐富的產品線。

So I think the second thing is, the trend is the industry is looking good. The trend is Applied is becoming more and more attractive and less volatile. And third, those things combine to produce very predictable cash flow, which we can talk about later on the call gives us opportunity return cash to investors.

所以我認為第二點是，產業整體趨勢良好。應用材料公司（Applied）的吸引力越來越大，波動性也越來越低。第三點是，這些因素結合起來，能夠產生非常可預測的現金流，我們稍後會在電話會議上詳細討論這一點，這為我們向投資者返還現金提供了機會。

In terms of risk, that this, there some replacement/reuse in 10 and 7 next year. I think it's pretty moderate, frankly. I think 10 is not going to be a big node, I think people are going to rush to go to 7. But 10 nano devices are shipping next year, 7, the year after. So the ability to migrate equipment is somewhat limited.

就風險而言，明年10和7代晶片之間會有一些替換/再利用的情況。坦白說，我認為風險相當低。我認為10代晶片不會成為一個主流節點，人們可能會爭相升級到7代。但10代奈米裝置明年就要出貨了，7代要等到後年。所以設備遷移的能力在某種程度上是有限的。

The second thing is, the comparison everybody always gives is the 20 to 16/14 migration. That was distinct in a couple ways. One, you had the biggest consumer of computer chips in the world switch from one vendor to another in a node. And secondly, you had gone from the last planar FinFET device to the -- last planar to the first FinFET, which really made the last device unattractive. So is it going to be reuse some kind of equipment from 10 to 7? Yes. I don't think it's next year, and, I think is going to be much smoother than it was in 2015.

第二點是，大家常拿20代到16/14代的過渡做比較。那次過渡有幾個顯著的特點。首先，當時全球最大的晶片消費商在一個製程節點上就從一個供應商切換到了另一個供應商。其次，當時是從最後一個平面FinFET元件過渡到——最後一個平面裝置再過渡到第一個FinFET元件，這使得最後一個平面裝置的吸引力大打折扣。那麼，從10代到7代的過渡會沿用一些設備嗎？是的。我認為不會是明年，而且我認為過渡過程會比2015年順利得多。

Thanks, Stephen.

謝謝你，史蒂芬。

Krish Sankar, Bank of America.

Krish Sankar，美國銀行。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I have like a two-part question, Bob. One, as you mentioned, the business is getting more seasonal versus cyclical, when you look at the order trend, you had a dip in orders for Semis in your October quarter. Is that the seasonality you are talking about on a go-forward basis?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。我的問題分為兩部分，鮑伯。第一，正如您所說，業務的季節性特徵越來越強，週期性特徵逐漸減弱。從訂單趨勢來看，您在十月的季度中半掛車訂單有所下降。您所說的季節性變化是指未來一段時間內的這種趨勢嗎？

And along the same path, when you look into calendar 2017, can you help us understand -- dig a little bit more deeper on how the WFE profile looks like, first-half versus second-half for NAND, DRAM, foundry, and logic?

同樣地，在查看 2017 年日曆時，您能否幫助我們更深入地了解 WFE 的發展概況，特別是 NAND、DRAM、晶圓代工和邏輯晶片在上半年和下半年的表現？

I do believe that as we said on the call -- the previous part of the cal, I do think it is more seasonal than cyclical. We have a lot of data that shows it.

我相信，正如我們在電話會議上所說——也就是電話會議的前半部分——這更多的是季節性的而非週期性的。我們有很多數據可以證明這一點。

For instance, even if you look, as we said, the script we got asked the most questions about at the Analyst Day, was this average WFE spending since 2010 is up to like $31.7 billion, I think it is, with the volatility of about $2.8 billion versus 2000 to 2009, it was like $25.5 billion with a volatility of $8 billion. I will give you more details on that.

例如，正如我們所說，在分析師日上，我們被問到最多的問題是，自2010年以來，WFE（家庭、設施和設備）的平均支出已達到約317億美元，我認為是這樣，波動幅度約為28億美元。而2000年至2009年期間，WFE的平均支出約255億美元，波動幅度為80億美元。我稍後會提供更多細節。

If you look at memory as a sum, because virtually every customer makes DRAM and NAND, the average before 2010, one standard deviation, one signal, was $6 billion on average spend of $10.7 billion. Since 2010 it's $3 billion standard deviation, on average spend of $12 billion when you put DRAM and NAND together.

如果把內存市場看作一個總和，因為幾乎所有客戶都生產DRAM和NAND閃存，那麼2010年以前的平均水平（一個標準差，一個信號）是60億美元，平均支出為107億美元。自2010年以來，標準差為30億美元，DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體加起來的平均支出為120億美元。

The second thing is, virtually every year since 2012, I think it is, it's a pretty much $1 billion to $2 billion a year total memory spending. Now, if you get the lost in the weeds between DRAM and NAND, it's a little different. But the companies manage their budgets that way. They say, we're going to spend on DRAM this year and NAND that year. Fab-- ramp this fab this year, the other fab the next year.

第二點是，自2012年以來，幾乎每年記憶體總支出都維持在10億到20億美元之間。當然，如果深入研究DRAM和NAND之間的區別，情況就略有不同。但各公司就是這樣安排預算的。他們會說，今年我們把錢花在DRAM上，明年就花在NAND上。晶圓廠方面，今年先提高這個晶圓廠的產能，明年再提高另一個晶圓廠的產能。

And then on foundry, foundry spending before 2010, it was about $2 billion on an average -- the standard deviation was $2 billion. Since then it's $1.5 billion on a spend of $12 billion. In the spend pre-2010 average, $4.5 billion. So the magnitude of these standard deviations, the volatility is going down. It really is. It seasonal, non-cyclical.

然後是鑄造業方面，2010 年之前的鑄造業支出平均約為 20 億美元——標準差也是 20 億美元。此後，在 120 億美元的支出中，平均支出為 15 億美元。而 2010 年之前的平均支出為 45 億美元。因此，這些標準差的幅度，以及波動性，都在下降。確實如此。這是季節性的，而非週期性的。

In terms of your specific question, about -- I guess it was about next year, we're not exactly sure. I'll give you some data for us.

關於您具體的問題，我想您指的是明年，我們不太確定。我提供您一些數據。

We think our Q1 bookings are up. We think on the year, WFE is up We think our share is up. I was just looking at the data, we think year-over-year it's a chance that every quarter year-over-year is up. I think it's less.

我們認為第一季的預訂量有所增長。我們認為全年來看，WFE（全球前端設備）也有所成長。我們認為我們的市場份額也有所增長。我剛才查看了數據，我們認為每個季度同比都有可能成長。但我認為實際成長幅度會更小。

In terms of the seasonality you specifically asked on foundry. Historically, spending on WFE and foundry, foundry is the one that tends to be a little more seasonal because it's Christmas and China's New Year. They, historically, have taken equipment more March through August -- like end of February through August. And then they might have another spurt if they need more later in the year.

關於您特別提到的鑄造設備的季節性問題，從歷史數據來看，WFE 和鑄造設備的支出中，鑄造設備的季節性波動更大，因為聖誕節和中國新年是主要因素。通常情況下，鑄造設備採購高峰期在三月到八月之間——也就是二月底到八月。如果之後一年中其他時間需要更多設備，他們可能還會出現另一波採購高峰。

This year was a little different, because one of our big foundry customers is trying to more level-load themselves and get a head start on 10 nanometer, so we have a little bit different cycle in terms of spending. Because, remember 10 nano is not shipping until next year. And then, the other thing that made this year a little different is there is just sustained demand for 3D NAND.

今年情況略有不同，因為我們的一家大型晶圓代工客戶正試圖均衡產能，搶佔10奈米製程的先機，所以我們的支出週期也略有變化。要知道，10奈米晶片要到明年才會出貨。此外，今年情況略有不同的另一個原因是，市場對3D NAND的需求持續旺盛。

So, we had some at the beginning of the year, we have a pull at the end of year. So the seasonality, which is kind of more than cyclicality, is being mapped to a technology transition, which is very helpful too. And, again, that's not so much cyclical, it's more of a technology trend that's going to go on for years.

所以，年初的時候我們遇到了一些需求，年底又出現了需求高峰。這種季節性波動（與其說是周期性波動，不如說是季節性波動）與技術轉型密切相關，這一點也很有幫助。而且，這與其說是週期性的，不如說是一種將持續多年的技術趨勢。

Thanks, Krish.

謝謝你，克里什。

Thank you. Farhan Ahmad, Credit Suisse.

謝謝。法爾漢·艾哈邁德，瑞士信貸。

Thanks for taking my question. My first question is regarding the Jan quarter orders outlook. On the prior call, you have kind of indicated that orders would be flattish in the Jan quarter from October. I just want to understand what has improved, and how do you see the order trend by different segments evidence as switching?

感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於1月份季度的訂單展望。在先前的電話會議上，您曾表示1月的訂單量會與10月份持平。我想了解哪些方面有所改善，以及您如何看待不同細分市場的訂單趨勢，並從中看出客戶轉變的跡象？

I'm trying to get off my orders, bad habit, but I'll try to help a little bit What we said last quarter, to make sure we put a floor, because we spiked up a lot in every metric you can measure, the last few quarters: orders, revenues, EPS.

我正在努力戒掉下單的壞習慣，但我會盡力幫忙。正如我們上個季度所說，要確保設定一個底線，因為在過去的幾個季度裡，我們所有可以衡量的指標都大幅飆升：訂單量、收入、每股盈餘。

We wanted to give people a sense, we were going to continue strong, that our share gains, our revenue growth, our operating margin expense was sustainable. So what we said last quarter was, orders are not going to fall off a cliff. The number is going to start with a three in the next two quarters, Q4 and Q1. And in fact, they will start with a three, and in fact the three was a little bit -- we thought it would be a little higher in Q4, and some of those went into Q1. So we think we are up double-digits in Q1.

我們希望讓大家感受到，我們將繼續保持強勁勢頭，我們的市場份額成長、營收成長和營運利潤率都是可持續的。所以我們上個季度說過，訂單量不會斷崖式下跌。未來兩個季度，也就是第四季和第一季度，訂單量都將以3%為開端。事實上，訂單量確實會以3%為開端，而且實際上3%這個數字比我們預想的略高一些——我們原本預計第四季度的訂單量會更高一些，但其中一些訂單被計入了第一季。因此，我們認為第一季的訂單量將實現兩位數的成長。

So it's probably a little bit timing. The magnitude is probably a little stronger because where we are getting pulled is on some flash devices, stuff like that, 3D NAND. So it is strong and it is probably stronger, even, than we thought a few months ago.

所以這可能跟時機有點關係。影響程度可能更強一些，因為我們目前受到的影響主要集中在一些閃存設備，例如3D NAND。所以影響確實很大，甚至可能比我們幾個月前預想的還要大。

Thanks, Farhan.

謝謝你，法爾漢。

Romit Shah, Nomura.

Romit Shah，野村證券。

Yes, hi. Thank you.

是的，你好。謝謝。

It just seems that AI machine learning, and self driving car adoptions, are coming along a lot faster than we thought at the start of the year. We know these applications are iterative and very compete intensive. I'm wondering if all this could be an incremental driver next year for your memory and logic businesses?

人工智慧機器學習和自動駕駛汽車的普及速度似乎比我們年初預想的要快得多。我們知道這些應用是一個迭代過程，而且競爭非常激烈。我想知道，所有這些是否會在明年成為貴公司記憶體和邏輯業務成長的推動因素？

I don't know about next year, but I would say that we are definitely increasingly bullish about the longer-term. We've talked about five drivers in our model between now and 2019, these multi-year waves. So we're very confident in those drivers, and we talked about that in the prepared remarks.

我不知道明年會怎樣，但我可以說，我們對長期前景的信心與日俱增。在我們的模型中，我們已經討論了從現在到2019年這五個持續多年的驅動因素。所以我們對這些驅動因素非常有信心，我們在事先準備好的演講稿中也談到了這一點。

I would say definitely increasingly bullish, relative to the longer-term opportunity. As we are engaged with some of the leading technology companies, around cognitive computing, smart vehicles, you saw a big announcement from Samsung this week with an $8 billion acquisition. There's an incredible amount of money being spent.

就長期機會而言，我認為前景無疑越來越樂觀。我們正與一些領先的科技公司合作，涉及認知運算、智慧汽車等領域。本週三星宣布了一項價值80億美元的收購案，可謂是重磅消息。可見，科技領域的投資規模令人矚目。

When you look at these drivers, VR, AR, smart vehicles, cognitive computing, all these different areas, you need higher-performance computing. And we had the CEO of one company that was here recently, and we were talking about logic devices, what are the size of those logic devices going to be, and basically said, as big as I build them. As big as I can fit it into theoretical field.

當你審視這些驅動因素，例如虛擬實境、擴增實境、智慧汽車、認知運算等等，你會發現所有這些領域都需要更高效能的運算。我們最近接待了一家公司的首席執行官，我們當時正在討論邏輯器件，以及這些邏輯器件的尺寸，他基本上是說，只要我能把它們設計得足夠大，只要我能把它們裝進理論空間，它們就會盡可能大。

And he was also talking about the amount of memory that's going to be needed for some of these future applications. And it's much, much bigger than I think any of us could imagine. So I would think we are much more bullish about the longer-term, relative to the drivers for high-performance computing, and for memory.

他也談到了未來某些應用程式所需的記憶體量。這遠遠超出了我們任何人的想像。因此，我認為我們對高效能運算和記憶體的長期發展前景更加樂觀。

I'm also bullish about the innovation pipeline that we have within Applied Materials. I really believe that the $500 million per year that we've moved in terms of innovation, we are already enabling people to design devices that they could not have dreamed of building a few years ago. And I strongly believe that the pipeline we have now, the best is still coming in that pipeline.

我對應用材料公司現有的創新管道也充滿信心。我深信，我們每年投入5億美元的創新資金，已經幫助人們設計出幾年前他們想都不敢想的設備。而且我堅信，在我們現有的創新管道中，未來還會有更優秀的產品問世。

So, I'm really bullish about the market. Bob talked about where we compete being better, more stable, upward trajectory, less volatile. Applied is in the best position we've ever been in to enable all of these great, big inflections to happen.

所以，我對市場前景非常看好。鮑伯談到，我們所處的競爭領域更加出色、穩定、呈上升趨勢，波動性更小。應用材料公司目前處於前所未有的最佳位置，能夠促成所有這些重大轉折點的發生。

Thanks, Romit.

謝謝你，羅米特。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

喬摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Yes, thank you. I wanted to ask about your multi-year commentary, when you said you're still optimistic, even beyond 2017. Can you talk about NAND in that context? And as you go through a very high capital-intensity period of planar to 3D conversions, and 3D greenfield, you'll get to point where you're doing more layer count increases, which is less capital-intensive. Shouldn't NAND turn into a headwind at some point in the next couple years? And how do you think about that in that multi-year context of overall WFE?

是的，謝謝。我想問您之前關於多年展望的評論，您說即使到了2017年以後，您仍然保持樂觀。您能否在這個背景下談談NAND快閃記憶體？隨著平面到3D的轉換以及3D全新晶片的開發，我們將經歷一段資本密集的時期，之後會進入層數增加的階段，而這方面的資本密集度會降低。 NAND閃存在未來幾年內會不會成為一種阻力？您如何看待NAND閃存在整體WFE（晶圓廠前端）多年發展背景下的影響？

Sure, Joe. Let me -- this is going to be a historic day. I'm going to use phraseology on this, in the next minute, that's never been used by a CFO of an American public company before. All right? So hold on.

當然，喬。讓我——這將是歷史性的一天。接下來，我要用一種美國上市公司財務長從未用過的措詞。好嗎？稍等片刻。

So I have a couple slides in front of me, that shows the demand for solid-state disk drive market growth in both enterprise and PCs. So these numbers, you can argue them a little bit but I think there in the ballpark. So 2015, there was about 12 petabytes of demand for solid-state disk drives in enterprise. That goes up to almost 120,000 petabytes, in 2020. So it goes from 12,000 to 120,000.

我面前有幾張投影片，展示了企業和個人用戶對固態硬碟市場需求的成長。這些數字可能存在一些爭議，但我認為大致大致正確。 2015年，企業對固態硬碟的需求量約為12PB。到2020年，這一數字增長到近120,000PB。也就是說，需求量從12,000PB成長到120,000PB。

And on the PC side, in 2015, it's about 20,000 going to 140,000 petabytes in 2020. Let me give you another way to look at those.

而就個人電腦而言，2015 年的資料量約為 2 萬 PB，到 2020 年將達到 14 萬 PB。讓我換個角度來看這些數據。

Our estimates, that the penetration across all PCs including workstations, notebooks, in 2015 was 21.8%, and it was only 15% in 2014, up to 31.6% of those have solid-state disk drives, going to 77.5% 2020. And, if you go look at the enterprise servers, this year, it is about 20% it was 14% of all of them in 2014. And we see it going to 26% in 2020.

據我們估計，2015年包括工作站和筆記型電腦在內的所有PC的固態硬碟普及率為21.8%，而2014年僅為15%，到2020年這一比例將達到31.6%，並有望達到77.5%。此外，企業伺服器方面，今年的普及率約20%，而2014年僅為14%。我們預計到2020年這一比例將達到26%。

So again, the total petabytes, I'll use that word again, has gone up over 100,000 petabytes from 2016 to 2020 in each, PCs and enterprise. So the demand is there, their expanding the addressable market for NAND. Other data I have seen, is that for servers alone, you might have to add 500,000 wafer starts of capacity, and your average NAND factor of 100,000 costs about $5 billion or $6 billion, say $5 billion, $6 billion. So that's about $25 billion to $30 billion. And upgrades are about another $25 billion to $30 billion. So, you get have $50 billion to $60 billion of spending, and that's cost-callibrated, over the next, sort of, five years, maybe? 2020-type date, of four or five years.

所以，我再說一遍，從2016年到2020年，個人電腦和企業級設備的NAND快閃記憶體總量（我再次使用這個詞）都增加了超過10萬個PB。因此，市場需求旺盛，NAND快閃記憶體的潛在市場正在不斷擴大。我看到的其他數據顯示，光是伺服器一項，就可能需要增加50萬片晶圓的產能，而平均每10萬片NAND快閃記憶體的成本約為50億到60億美元，也就是50億到60億美元。這樣算下來，總共要250億到300億美元。而升級改造又需要花費250億到300億美元。因此，未來五年，大概到2020年左右，總共需要500億到600億美元的支出。

If you take it over four years, that's like you are going to be $50 billion, that says. So it's over $10 billion a year. So we've upped this year's forecast, Next year, we're over, I think, $11 billion and change. I'm not sure it doesn't stay at $10 billion and more for a few years to come. Because we're kind of looking at the end-user demand for solid-state disk drives, penetrating hard disk drives, by market. We're looking at capital intensity, and getting feedback from customers. And in the short-term, they are shipping everything they can build.

如果以四年計算，市場規模將達到500億美元。也就是說，每年超過100億美元。因此，我們提高了今年的預測，明年預計將超過110億美元。我不確定未來幾年市場規模是否會維持在100億美元以上。因為我們正在依市場分析固態硬碟的終端用戶需求，以及硬碟的普及率。我們也關注資本密集度，並收集客戶的回饋。短期來看，他們正在全力以赴地生產和交付產品。

So what the point? I think the NAND build out goes on for awhile, and I think people underestimating. Because the other thing is, they're going to convert the 2D to 3D, because they are not going to be able to sell the 2D, and that will drive down to sell even more 3D, and hit cost points that feed into the hard disk drives even faster. So I think there's a bunch of ways you can get a number that could be $10 billion for a while.

所以重點是什麼？我認為NAND快閃記憶體的普及還會持續一段時間，而且我覺得人們低估了它的發展速度。因為另一方面，他們會把2D快閃記憶體升級到3D閃存，因為2D快閃記憶體賣不出去，這會進一步推動3D快閃記憶體的銷售，並更快地降低成本，從而帶動硬碟的發展。所以我認為有很多方法可以得出NAND快閃記憶體市場規模在一段時間內達到100億美元的結論。

Great thanks, Joe.

非常感謝，喬。

And I would like to say that I was proud to use the word petabytes today.

我想說，今天能使用「拍字節」這個詞，我感到非常自豪。

Patrick Ho, Stifel Nicolaus.

Patrick Ho，Stifel Nicolaus。

Thank you very much. Bob, maybe if you could clarify again the growth that you're expecting in total Display spending in 2017? Is that incrementally because of the Gen 10.5 build out that you're seeing? Or are you also anticipating a further increase in OLED spending next year?

非常感謝。鮑勃，您能否再次澄清一下您對2017年顯示器總支出成長的預期？這是否主要得益於您看到的第10.5代顯示器的普及？或者您是否也預計明年OLED支出會進一步成長？

I think we are seeing a few things. In actual spending, I think, probably we're up more -- we have a slide on that, somewhere. I think we're up probably more in TVs, versus what we thought two months ago. We think that there is huge demand for OLED for mobile.

我認為我們看到了一些趨勢。就實際支出而言，我認為可能成長幅度更大——我們在這方面有相關的圖表。我認為電視方面的成長幅度可能比我們兩個月前的預期更大。我們認為行動裝置對OLED的需求非常旺盛。

The question is how fast can they ramp it? I think it's a question of supply more than demand. I think they on TV, they can ramp the big TVs and they are going to ramp them pretty aggressively, particularly in China. This Gen10.5 is ramping, there's going to be more to come after that.

問題在於他們能以多快的速度擴大產能？我認為這更多是供應問題而非需求問題。我認為他們在電視領域，尤其是大型電視領域，能夠迅速擴大產能，而且他們將會非常積極地擴大產能，尤其是在中國。第 10.5 代產品正逐步普及，之後將會有更多產品推出。

So we're up to over $16.5 million next year for Display CapEx. I don't have the numbers from two months ago, but the growth is in both. But, I think the thing that's bigger in two months for us, is the TV, because the TV sizes are coming bigger than we thought -- the individual TV sizes, and the profitability is quite strong in the TV panel business, which is a leading indicator of spending, and then these big fabs. I think they're both very healthy, but I think the increase in spending is probably a little bit more on the TV side.

所以，明年我們在顯示器領域的資本支出將超過1,650萬美元。我沒有兩個月前的具體數據，但兩項業務都在成長。不過，我認為兩個月內成長幅度更大的應該是電視業務，因為電視尺寸比我們預想的要大——指的是單一電視的尺寸，而且電視面板業務的盈利能力非常強勁，這可以作為支出的領先指標，再加上這些大型晶圓廠。我認為兩項業務都發展良好，但支出成長可能更集中在電視領域。

Thanks, Patrick.

謝謝你，派崔克。

Edwin Mok, Needham.

Edwin Mok，Needham。

Thanks for taking my question. My question is on DRAM side. Bob, you sound a little more conservative on DRAM, but we've seen pricing improve, and some talk about a customer looking to move into the next node.

感謝您回答我的問題。我的問題是關於DRAM的。鮑勃，您似乎對DRAM比較保守，但我們看到價格下降，而且一些客戶正在考慮升級到下一代工藝節點。

Are you just being conservative or have you -- what are you hearing from the customer and are you seeing signs that you can start moving on to the next node?

你只是比較保守嗎？或者──你從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？你是否看到了可以開始進入下一個節點的跡象？

We think DRAM is up some next year, but we think most customers who make DRAM and NAND are setting a priority on NAND right now, because they are seeing an expansion in their addressable market for NAND, number one. Number two, it's a competitive situation that they don't want to miss that growing market. And DRAM, their pricing is pretty good, so I think the capital dollars will go to NAND.

我們認為明年DRAM價格會有所上漲，但目前大多數DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體製造商都將重點放在NAND快閃記憶體上，原因有二：一是NAND快閃記憶體的潛在市場正在擴張；二是市場競爭激烈，他們不想錯過這個不斷增長的市場。而且DRAM的價格相當不錯，所以我認為資金最終會流向NAND快閃記憶體。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jerome Ramel, BNP Paribas.

傑羅姆·拉梅爾，法國巴黎銀行。

I'd like to know, what is your assumption in terms of in-store capacity with (inaudible) 10-nanometer node for next year?

我想知道，您對明年採用（聽不清楚）10奈米製程節點的門市產能有何預期？

Our line was quiet for a moment. It sounded like you're talking about 10 nanometers, and was at the capacity at the end of the year or something? Sorry, we couldn't quite hear. Can you please just repeat? Thank you.

電話那頭安靜了一會兒。聽起來您好像在說10奈米，而且好像年底就達到產能上限了？抱歉，我們沒聽清楚。您能再說一次嗎？謝謝。

Can you share with us, what is your assumption for the 10-nanometer node capacity that you have at the end of -- let me say Q4 to 2017, for the industry?

您能否與我們分享一下，您對 2017 年第四季末整個產業的 10 奈米製程節點產能有何預期？

Sure. The chart I'm looking at we put -- I will give you what I have easily available, okay? The spending in 2016 in foundry, 59% is, we think, after September, 2016, is for 10/7, and about the same percentage next year because you're still seen strength at some of the trailing edge stuff. 28 -- particularly 28 nano is pretty strong still, and in fact, we think it might even be up next to.

當然。我正在看的這張圖表——我會把我手邊能找到的資訊都告訴你，好嗎？ 2016 年晶圓代工的支出佔 59%，我們認為，2016 年 9 月之後的數據是針對 10 月/7 日的，明年這個比例應該也差不多，因為一些前沿技術仍然很強勁。 28 奈米——特別是 28 奈米——仍然非常強勁，事實上，我們認為它甚至可能接近…

And then, in terms of the split between 10 and 7, the total capacity between 10 and 7, is around 70,000 to 80,000 wafer starts of the end of this year. About 110,000 to 130,000 at the end of next year. I think the vast majority that is 10-nanometer.

然後，就10奈米和7奈米製程的產能分配而言，到今年年底，10奈米和7奈米製程的總產能約為7萬至8萬片晶圓。到明年年底，產能約11萬至13萬片。我認為其中絕大部分是10奈米製程。

Thanks, Jerome.

謝謝你，傑羅姆。

Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna.

Mehdi Hosseini，Susquehanna。

Thanks for taking my question. You sound really positive regarding the demand drivers, and you're going to stop providing booking numbers on a quarterly basis. So if you're so confident, why not provide an annual revenue and earning target, so that we can better track this multi-year cycle that you're going through?

感謝您回答我的問題。您對需求驅動因素的看法非常樂觀，而且您還將停止按季度提供預訂數據。既然您如此自信，為什麼不提供一個年度收入和獲利目標呢？這樣我們就能更好地追蹤您正在經歷的這個多年周期。

We never have in the industry. I'm not going to start now. We don't give guidance out a year.

我們業內從來沒這麼做過。我現在也不會開始這麼做。我們不提供一年的業績指引。

But you stopped providing bookings, so --

但你們已經停止提供預訂服務了，所以——

Here's what we gave you. We gave you a 2019 model, that gave you a WFE assumption, revenue assumption by product, share assumptions. We told you on the Analyst Day that our share gains were almost linear from now through 2019, and we told you that our Service business was going to grow almost linearly by year, and we told you that display was going to be growing up to that number, too.

這就是我們之前提供的資訊。我們提供了一個2019年的模型，其中包含了WFE（終端設備規模）假設、各產品收入假設和市佔率假設。我們在分析師日上告訴大家，從現在到2019年，我們的市佔率成長幾乎是線性的；我們也告訴大家，我們的服務業務將逐年幾乎線性成長；我們也告訴過大家，顯示器業務也將達到同樣的成長水準。

Our growth in revenue from 2015/2016 to 2019, we think is pretty straight line. Now, giving an absolute numbers a year in advance, we don't have that level of precision.

我們認為，從2015/2016財年到2019年，我們的營收成長基本上呈現直線。但是，要提前一年給出絕對數字，我們目前還無法做到如此精確。

Tom Diffely, DA Davidson.

湯姆·迪菲利，地方檢察官戴維森。

Good afternoon. When you look at the next two years, and a lot of the growth coming from both the flat-panel OLED, as well as China, what impact does that have on your both, cost structure and your margin structure?

午安.展望未來兩年，平板OLED和中國市場都將帶來大量成長，對貴公司的成本結構和利潤結構會有什麼影響？

I'm sorry, Tom could you repeat it, please?

對不起，湯姆，你能再說一次嗎？

Yes. When you look at growth, coming specifically from a couple of large markets like the OLED and China, what impact does ramping revenue in those particular markets do to your cost structure and margin structure overtime?

是的。當我們審視成長，特別是來自OLED和中國等幾個大型市場的成長時，這些特定市場收入的成長會對您的成本結構和利潤結構產生怎樣的長期影響？

I'll give it a shot. In terms of -- if you want to look at cost structure at Applied, most of our sales are related to physical products we sell, and they share a common factories, which are predominantly in Singapore and the US.

我來試試。就應用材料公司的成本結構而言——如果你想了解一下，我們的大部分銷售額都與我們銷售的實體產品相關，而這些產品共用一些工廠，這些工廠主要位於新加坡和美國。

The material cost, product cost is similar, and then Taiwan is a big source for our displays. So the material cost structures and supply chains are worldwide. So wherever we sell them doesn't matter too much for us.

原料成本和產品成本都差不多，而且台灣是我們顯示器的主要供應地。所以原料成本結構和供應鏈都是全球性的。因此，無論我們在哪裡銷售，對我們來說都不是最重要的。

In terms of differentiation and mix, which sometimes drives gross margin, different device-type customers use different mix of our hardware and products. In terms of OLED, we look at the OLED display market, for our existing products, as being similar margin profiles to our TV markets, and by region similar.

就差異化和產品組合而言（這有時會影響毛利率），不同類型的設備客戶會使用我們不同的硬體和產品組合。就OLED而言，我們認為OLED顯示器市場（針對我們現有的產品）的利潤率與電視市場相似，且各地區的利潤率也相近。

The opportunity for us on margin, is the new products we are going to be introducing in the next couple years in display, which we think are very highly differentiated and very attractive products, which have upside for us. In terms of margins by region, it goes predominantly to mix of products, but historically we provide a high level of service to customers in China, and so we usually do well in terms of share there, in particularly.

就利潤率而言，我們的機會在於未來幾年將在顯示器領域推出的新產品。我們認為這些產品差異化程度很高，極具吸引力，對我們而言具有巨大的成長潛力。就各地區的利潤率而言，主要取決於產品組合，但從以往的經驗來看，我們一直為中國客戶提供高水準的服務，因此我們在中國市場的份額通常表現良好。

The incremental operating profit, if we look at China is pretty good for us. We have a very strong position, and really great relationships, and a really great team supporting customers, both multi-nationals and the domestic companies, and also the incremental profit for us in Display is positive for the company overall.

從中國市場來看，我們的增量營業利潤相當不錯。我們在中國市場擁有非常強大的市場地位、良好的客戶關係以及優秀的團隊，為跨國公司和本土企業提供支援。此外，顯示器業務的增量利潤對公司整體而言也是正面的。

Great. Operator we have time for just one more question, please.

好的。接線員，我們還有時間再問最後一個問題，謝謝。

Jagadish Iyer, Summit Redstone.

賈加迪什·艾耶，峰會紅石。

Thanks for taking my question, Bob. I'm just trying to reconcile on the flash segment, we had a good spreading this year, but why were the orders essentially flat between FY15 in FY16? I understand it's fiscal year, but what does it mean for FY17, given it the spending that you are seeing for the flash? Thanks.

謝謝你回答我的問題，鮑伯。我只是想弄清楚閃速晶片業務的情況。我們今年的業績分佈不錯，但為什麼2015財年到2016財年的訂單量基本上持平？我知道這是財年劃分，但考慮到你看到的閃速晶片業務支出狀況，這對2017財年意味著什麼？謝謝。

We had one particular customer in 2015 that gave us orders pretty far in advance, because they wanted to lock-in capacity deliveries from us. So, I think that was the aberration.

2015年我們有一位特別的客戶，他們提前很久就下了訂單，因為他們想鎖定我們的產能。所以，我認為那是個例外。

I think the trend line is up. If you look at total WFE, it is up for flash, and if you look at our sales are up, and probably they're up next year, too. So, it was a little bit in 2015, one particular customer, in particular, wanted to get into their pipeline in terms of the queue for production.

我認為趨勢線是上升的。如果你看WFE（晶圓廠設備）總量，快閃記憶體晶片的銷量正在上升；如果你看我們的銷售額，銷量也在上升，而且明年可能還會繼續上升。所以，在2015年，有一位特定的客戶希望將我們的產品加入他們的生產流程。

Thanks, Jagadish, for your question. And, Bob, would you like to summarize before we close the call?

謝謝賈加迪什的提問。鮑勃，在結束通話前，你能否做個總結？

Sure, it seems like a year ago, but we only had Analyst Day about six weeks ago, or maybe a little more, in New York. I have to say, even in the last eight to nine weeks, I increasingly believe that the industry we serve are becoming more and more attractive and growing and more diverse and less volatile.

沒錯，感覺好像已經過去一年了，但實際上我們六週前，或許更久一點，在紐約舉辦了分析師日活動。我必須說，即使在過去的八九周里，我也越來越相信我們所服務的行業正變得越來越有吸引力、發展越來越快、越來越多元化，波動性也越來越小。

Gary talked about some of the demand drivers for our customers, whether it is autonomous cars, it's virtual-reality, it's AI, big data, you really feel this when driving in Silicon Valley. You see it everywhere. We had some of the CEOs of these companies come in and talk to us, and it's real. It's happening.

加里談到了我們客戶的一些需求驅動因素，無論是自動駕駛汽車、虛擬實境、人工智慧或大數據，在矽谷開車時你都能真切地感受到這一點。到處都能看到這些技術。我們邀請了一些公司的執行長來和我們交流，這一切都是真的，正在發生。

You look at some of the highest performing stocks in the space this year, that's what's driving them. So one, the industries we serve and Display is also that way, where it's kid-of doubled in terms of spending, are becoming more and more attractive, and more demand drivers would make it for less volatile for us.

看看今年該領域一些表現最佳的股票，你會發現正是這些因素推動了它們的上漲。首先，我們所服務的產業，包括顯示器產業，也經歷類似的成長，支出幾乎翻了一番，變得越來越有吸引力，而更多的需求驅動因素將降低我們股票的波動性。

Second, Applied is performing better. I think we are more and more, becoming more and more innovative and executing better. And there is compounding benefits from that. So I think, that results in us, in a broad range of opportunities. Our biggest problem is just picking and choosing among good opportunities at this point.

其次，應用材料公司（Applied）的績效正在提升。我認為我們越來越有創新性，執行力也越來越強。這帶來了疊加效應。因此，我認為這為我們帶來了廣泛的機會。我們目前最大的問題是如何從眾多優質機會中做出選擇。

So Applied is feeling more broader, more diverse, and less volatile, and more predictably we are going to do better. And then finally, those two things combined, and potential with tax legislation, that there's a really good opportunity to return superior cash returns to investors, including, which we've said -- I think we said earlier today, that we were conservative in the financial money model, we showed eight weeks ago, in terms of the cash, and we kept a little conservatism in the cash in the model, because we wanted to be opportunistic. If there was tax law changes, then we could return even greater returns to investors. So I think the industry is becoming more diverse, and less volatile, and more attractive in terms of growth, more drivers. Applied is becoming that way, and the leverage down to the cash line, especially to get some tax legislation that is attractive, is a pretty powerful combination for Applied.

因此，Applied公司感覺業務範圍更廣、更多元化、波動性更小，而且業績也更有可預測性。最後，這兩點結合起來，再加上稅收政策的潛在影響，為投資者帶來絕佳的現金回報機會。正如我們之前提到的——我想我們今天早些時候也說過——我們在財務模型中採取了保守策略（我們在八週前展示的模型中就現金流部分進行了調整），我們之所以在模型中保持一定的保守性，是因為我們希望抓住機會。如果稅法有所變動，我們就能為投資人帶來更高的報酬。所以我認為，整個產業正變得更加多元化、波動性更小，成長動力也更強，更具吸引力。 Applied公司正在朝著這個方向發展，而現金流槓桿效應，尤其是在稅收政策有利的情況下，對Applied公司來說是一個非常強大的組合。

Great. Thanks, Bob. And we'd like to thank everyone for joining us this afternoon. A replay of this call will be available on our website beginning at 5:00 PM Pacific time today. So, thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

太好了。謝謝鮑勃。也感謝各位今天下午參加我們的電話會議。本次電話會議的錄音將於太平洋時間今天下午5點起在我們的網站上提供。感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。會議到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。祝大家今天愉快。