應用材料 (AMAT) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call.

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

再次提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。現在我將會議交給投資人關係副總裁麥可‧沙利文先生。請您發言，先生。

Thank you, in a moment we'll discuss the results for our third quarter, which ended on July 31. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO, and Bob Halliday, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，稍後我們將討論截至7月31日的第三季業績。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長加里·迪克森，以及我們的財務長鮑勃·哈利迪。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's current view of its industries, performance, products, share positions, profitability, and business outlook. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements, and are not guarantees of future performance. Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections, and assumptions, as of August 18, 2016, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

在會議開始之前，請允許我提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括應用材料公司目前對其所在行業、業績、產品、市場份額、盈利能力和業務前景的看法。這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異，並且並非對未來績效的保證。有關這些風險和不確定性因素的信息，請參閱應用材料公司最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-Q表和8-K表。所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理階層截至2016年8月18日的估計、預測和假設，應用資料公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP adjusted financial measures. The reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release, and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the investors page of our website at www.AppliedMaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP調整後的財務指標。與GAAP指標的調節表包含在今天的獲利新聞稿以及我們的調節表幻燈片中，這些幻燈片可在我們網站www.AppliedMaterials.com的投資者關係頁面上找到。

Next, I would like to remind everyone that Applied Materials plans to hold its 2016 analysts meeting in New York City on Wednesday, September 21. Those of you joining us in New York will have the option to attend technology sessions with our general managers. The main event will be webcast live. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

接下來，我想提醒各位，應用材料公司計劃於9月21日（星期三）在紐約市舉行2016年度分析師會議。屆時，蒞臨紐約的各位可以選擇參加由我們總經理主持的技術研討會。會議主體內容將進行網路直播。現在，我將把電話交給加里·迪克森先生。

Thanks, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm very pleased to report that Applied Materials delivered record earnings in Q3. And with our orders also at an all-time high, I'm confident that we can beat this earnings record again in our fourth quarter. I want to thank our employees for all their hard work that has contributed to these outstanding results, and their passion to keep raising the bar.

謝謝麥克，大家下午好。我非常高興地宣布，應用材料公司第三季獲利創歷史新高。同時，我們的訂單量也達到了歷史新高，因此我有信心在第四季再次刷新獲利紀錄。我要感謝所有員工的辛勤付出，正是他們的努力和熱情才成就了這些卓越的業績，也感謝他們不斷追求卓越的精神。

I'll start today by outlining the key factors supporting these record levels of performance, and describe how our strategy positions Applied for sustainable long-term growth. I will also share our latest view on our markets, and detail why Applied has a positive outlook for 2017 and beyond. I will conclude with brief updates on each of our major businesses. After that, Bob will provide additional details about our results and outlook.

今天，我將首先概述支撐我們取得這些創紀錄業績的關鍵因素，並闡述我們的策略如何使Applied實現可持續的長期成長。我也會分享我們對市場的最新看法，並詳細解釋Applied為何對2017年及以後的發展前景持樂觀態度。最後，我將簡要介紹我們各項主要業務的最新進展。之後，Bob將提供更多關於我們業績和展望的細節。

In both semiconductor and display, we see dramatic advances in technology taking place. We are in the early stages of large multi-year industry inflections that are driving growth in our business today, and creating new opportunities for the future.

在半導體和顯示領域，我們都看到了科技的快速發展。我們正處於影響深遠的多年產業變革的早期階段，這些變革不僅推動了我們業務的當前成長，也為未來創造了新的機會。

First, foundry and logic customers are making significant innovations in transistor and interconnect for 10 and 7 nanometer devices. This plays to the strengths of our leadership businesses, including epi, PVD, implant, CMP and RTP, where we lead the industry with our unique capabilities and high market share. As customers move to 10 nanometer technology, the available market for these leadership businesses grows by around 25%, compared to the previous node.

首先，晶圓代工和邏輯元件客戶正在10奈米和7奈米裝置的電晶體和互連技術方面進行重大創新。這正契合了我們領先業務的優勢，包括外延、物理氣相沉積、離子注入、化學機械拋光和快速熱處理，我們在這些領域憑藉獨特的能力和高市場份額引領行業。隨著客戶向10奈米技術轉型，這些領先業務的市場規模相比上一節點成長了約25%。

The second key inflection is 3D NAND. This is a materials-enabled technology that significantly expands our addressable market. With innovative new products, we are providing customers with the advanced solutions they need for depositing, removing, and modifying materials with incredible precision. As a result, we are winning significant share gains, as the industry shifts from planar to 3D technology. By the end of this year, we will have grown our share of total NAND spending by almost 7 points above our 2012 baseline.

第二個關鍵轉折點是3D NAND。這項材料驅動型技術顯著拓展了我們的潛在市場。憑藉創新產品，我們為客戶提供先進的解決方案，幫助他們以極高的精度進行材料的沉積、去除和改質。因此，隨著產業從平面技術轉型為3D技術，我們的市佔率也顯著成長。到今年年底，我們在NAND總支出中的份額將比2012年的基準水準成長近7個百分點。

The third big wave of investment is China, which represents an important long-term growth opportunity for the industry. Applied has been working in China for 32 years, and during this time, we have established the strongest position in the region. While the build-out of China's semiconductor industry has only just begun, our semiconductor orders and revenue have already doubled over the past two years, and we're on track for a record 2016.

第三波投資浪潮來自中國，為半導體產業帶來了重要的長期成長機會。應用材料在中國已有32年的發展歷程，並在此期間建立了該地區最強大的市場地位。儘管中國半導體產業的建設才剛起步，但我們的半導體訂單和收入在過去兩年中已經翻了一番，並且預計在2016年創下歷史新高。

The fourth big driver for Applied is organic LED displays. OLED is also enabled by materials innovation, and that makes our available market opportunity more than 3 times larger than for traditional LCD. OLED is the key for high resolution, low power screens, with faster refresh rates. We expect it to become the standard for virtual reality capable phones and headsets.

應用材料的第四個主要驅動力是OLED顯示器。 OLED的進步也得益於材料創新，這使得我們可利用的市場機會比傳統LCD大三倍以上。 OLED是實現高解析度、低功耗和更高刷新率螢幕的關鍵。我們預計它將成為虛擬實境手機和頭戴式裝置的標配。

At Applied, our strategy is to develop highly differentiated materials engineering products and services, that make new technologies possible. As our customers' technical challenges become more complex, it's the breadth and depth of our capabilities that sets us apart. By building on these strengths we are outperforming our markets today and creating a foundation for sustainable growth over the years to come.

在應用材料公司，我們的策略是開發高度差異化的材料工程產品和服務，從而推動新技術的發展。隨著客戶面臨的技術挑戰日益複雜，我們廣博而精深的實力使我們脫穎而出。憑藉這些優勢，我們不僅在當今市場中表現優異，也為未來多年的永續成長奠定了堅實的基礎。

We are making great progress with all of the key elements of our strategy. First, we have strengthened our organization and processes in the field. In the past three years, we have increased the number of technologists and engineers directly supporting customers by 50%. This allows us to see inflections earlier and define winning products in a more repeatable way.

我們在策略的各個關鍵要素方面都取得了顯著進展。首先，我們加強了現場組織架構和流程。過去三年，我們直接為客戶提供支援的技術人員和工程師人數增加了50%。這使我們能夠更早洞察市場轉折點，並以更具可複製性的方式打造制勝產品。

Second, we have increased R&D to accelerate new product development, to provide the materials innovations that our customers need. We have a strong pipeline of differentiated enabling technologies, that are winning in the marketplace, and extending our innovation leadership.

其次，我們加大了研發投入，加速新產品開發，以滿足顧客對創新材料的需求。我們擁有強大的差異化賦能技術儲備，這些技術在市場上屢獲佳績，進一步鞏固了我們的創新領先地位。

Third, we have increased our focus on advanced service products. We are delivering more value to our customers, and as a result, our service business is growing to record levels.

第三，我們更重視高端服務產品。我們為客戶創造了更多價值，因此，我們的服務業務成長至歷史新高。

Fourth, we are successfully applying materials engineering beyond semiconductor. In display, we're on track to deliver more than $1 billion of revenue in FY16, with significant opportunities for future growth.

第四，我們已成功將材料工程應用於半導體以外的領域。在顯示器領域，我們預計在2016財年實現超過10億美元的營收，並且未來成長潛力巨大。

I'll now provide our market outlook. In our discussions with customers, they describe near- and longer-term drivers for their business, that support sustainable growth in investment. These include increasing silicon content in smartphones to support advanced features. Explosive growth of data for social media, 4K video, and IoT, that is fueling demand for memory. And most exciting of all, emerging categories such as virtual and augmented reality, artificial intelligence, and smart vehicles that create new platforms that demand high-performance computing, advanced memory, and better displays.

接下來，我將介紹我們的市場展望。在與客戶的交流中，他們描述了推動其業務近期和長期發展的因素，這些因素將支撐投資的可持續成長。其中包括智慧型手機中不斷增加的矽晶片含量，以支援更高級的功能；社交媒體、4K視訊和物聯網資料的爆炸式增長，這推動了對記憶體的需求；而最令人興奮的是，虛擬實境和擴增實境、人工智慧和智慧汽車等新興領域正在創造新的平台，這些平台需要高效能運算、先進的記憶體和更優質的展示技術。

Within this environment we see customers battling for leadership and making strategic investments to ensure they're in winning positions, as demand shifts to these new device technologies. This is especially true in memory, where we see a broad base of customers accelerating their 3D NAND road maps. As a result, NAND investment is getting stronger, and we now anticipate that spending in 2016 will be 40% higher than last year.

在這種環境下，我們看到客戶競相爭奪市場領導地位，並進行策略性投資以確保自身處於領先地位，因為市場需求正在轉向這些新型裝置技術。在記憶體領域尤其如此，我們看到許多客戶正在加速推進其3D NAND路線圖。因此，NAND投資力道不斷加大，我們預計2016年的支出將比去年成長40%。

We're also seeing foundry investments strengthening, and now expect spending for the year to be 5% to 10% higher than in 2015. While more than half of this spending is focused on leading edge 10 and 7 nanometer technologies, the foundry customer mix is broadening, as investments in trailing geometries increase, particularly in China.

我們也看到晶圓代工投資正在增強，預計今年的支出將比 2015 年成長 5% 至 10%。雖然超過一半的支出集中在領先的 10 奈米和 7 奈米技術上，但晶圓代工客戶群正在擴大，對後沿幾何形狀的投資也在增加，尤其是在中國。

In logic, we now believe 2016 spending will be marginally lower than in 2015. And in DRAM, we still see spending coming down at least 25% from the very high level of investment last year. Overall, we now expect 2016 wafer fab equipment investment to be slightly above 2015, and as we look further ahead, our early view is that 2017 could be higher.

根據邏輯推算，我們現在認為2016年的支出將略低於2015年。在DRAM領域，我們仍然預期支出將比去年極高的投資水準至少下降25%。整體而言，我們現在預計2016年晶圓廠設備投資將略高於2015年，展望未來，我們初步認為2017年可能會更高。

I will now talk about the progress we're making in each of our major businesses. In semiconductor, we see strong demand across the board. Our quarterly orders and revenue are at a 15-year high, and for FY16, we expect our revenue will be around $770 million higher than 2015. This gives me high confidence that this will be a strong share gain year for us.

接下來，我將談談我們在各項主要業務領域的進展。在半導體領域，我們看到各方面需求都十分強勁。我們的季度訂單和收入均創下15年來的新高，預計2016財年的營收將比2015年成長約7.7億美元。這讓我非常有信心，今年我們將取得顯著的市佔率成長。

What I'm most excited about is our pipeline of innovative new products. Two great examples are the products we launched last month.

最讓我興奮的是我們不斷湧現的創新產品。上個月我們推出的兩款產品就是很好的例子。

Our Selectra system is the industry's first extreme selectivity etch tool. This disruptive etch technology enables precision materials removal, that does not damage the increasingly delicate structures in advanced logic and memory devices. Selectra has great customer pull, and we see significant growth in applications at future technology nodes. By the end of the year, we expect to have shipped more than 350 chambers to a broad set of customers.

我們的Selectra系統是業界首款超高選擇性蝕刻工具。這項顛覆性的蝕刻技術能夠精準去除材料，同時不會損壞先進邏輯和儲存裝置中日益精密的結構。 Selectra擁有強大的客戶需求，我們預計其在未來技術節點上的應用將顯著成長。到今年年底，我們預計將向眾多客戶交付超過350台蝕刻腔。

I am equally excited about our PROVision system, which is the industry's most advanced e-Beam inspection tool. E-Beam is the fastest growing segment in the inspection market. The market doubled in size from 2011 to 2015, and is set for significant future growth. We see very strong demand for PROVision, and have already shipped more than a dozen systems.

我對我們的PROVision系統同樣感到興奮，它是業界最先進的電子束偵測工具。電子束檢測是檢測市場中成長最快的領域。從2011年到2015年，該市場規模翻了一番，並且預計未來還將有顯著成長。我們看到市場對PROVision的需求非常強勁，目前已經交付了十幾套系統。

In service, our strategy is to deliver more value to customers, with advanced service products that are focused on improving device performance, yield and cost. Our team is doing a great job. In the third quarter, revenues were at an all-time high. When we look at year-on-year comparisons, we have grown our service business for 11 consecutive quarters.

在服務方面，我們的策略是為客戶創造更多價值，提供專注於提升設備效能、良率和降低成本的先進服務產品。我們的團隊表現出色。第三季營收創歷史新高。從年比數據來看，我們的服務業務已連續11季實現成長。

In display, our capabilities in large area materials engineering set us apart, and we have tremendous momentum. The major display inflections are made possible by materials innovation, and our available market is expanding significantly. We are in the initial phase of OLED investment, and this opportunity is layered on top of solid demand for our leadership display products for TV and mobile. As a result, for the second quarter in a row, orders in display are at an all time record.

在顯示領域，我們在大面積材料工程方面的能力使我們脫穎而出，並擁有強勁的發展勢頭。顯示技術的重大變革得益於材料創新，而我們的目標市場正在顯著擴張。我們正處於OLED投資的初期階段，這一機會建立在我們領先的電視和行動裝置顯示器產品強勁的需求之上。因此，顯示器訂單連續第二季創下歷史新高。

Looking further ahead, we're increasingly excited about DR and AR, as it has broad implications not only for display, but also for semiconductor. Leading companies in Silicon Valley and around the world are making big investments in this area, and our technologists are engaged with them as they develop their road maps. We will spend more time covering this topic at our analyst meeting in September.

展望未來，我們對DR和AR技術越來越感到興奮，因為它們不僅對顯示領域，而且對半導體產業都具有廣泛的影響。矽谷乃至全球的領導企業都在該領域投入巨資，我們的技術專家也積極參與他們的產品路線圖制定過程。我們將在9月的分析師會議上更詳細地探討這個主題。

In summary, I strongly believe this is Applied's time. We are performing better than ever, delivering new records, and in a great position to sustainably outperform our markets.

總而言之，我堅信現在是應用材料公司大展拳腳的時代。我們的業績比以往任何時候都更加出色，屢創佳績，並且完全有能力持續超越市場平均。

There are a combination of factors that are contributing to our success. We identified large multi-year inflections early. We are making great progress with the major elements of our strategy, enabling us to unlock the full potential of Applied. We have made significant investments in our capabilities and products to extend our innovation leadership, and we are executing well across the organization.

我們的成功得益於多種因素的共同作用。我們及早識別出了影響深遠的多年發展轉捩點。我們在策略的關鍵要素方面取得了顯著進展，這使我們能夠充分釋放應用科技的潛力。我們已對自身能力和產品進行了大量投資，以鞏固我們的創新領先地位，整個組織都在有效執行這些措施。

Now, let me hand the call over to Bob, who will provide more details about our quarterly results and performance. Bob?

現在，我把電話交給鮑勃，他將詳細介紹我們的季度業績和表現。鮑伯？

Thanks, Gary. In Q3, Applied demonstrated that we are growing faster than our markets, and accelerating our profitability. We delivered the Company's highest earnings per share, surpassing a record set more than 15 years ago.

謝謝，加里。第三季度，應用材料公司展現出超越市場成長速度的成長速度，並加速了獲利能力的提升。我們實現了公司有史以來最高的每股盈餘，打破了15年前創下的紀錄。

Gary talked about the strategies that are helping us to anticipate major inflections, deliver more valuable products and services, and grow in attractive new markets. I will describe some of the benefits that our strategies and execution are having on our financial performance, and I'll do this by comparing our most recent quarter to Q2 of 2011. I think this is an interesting comparison, because Q2 of 2011 was our best quarter since 2000, and because revenue was nearly the same in both periods.

加里談到了幫助我們預測重大轉折點、提供更有價值的產品和服務以及在新興市場實現成長的策略。我將闡述這些策略及其執行對財務表現的益處，並透過比較我們最近一個季度和2011年第二季的業績來說明這一點。我認為這是一個有趣的比較，因為2011年第二季度是我們自2000年以來業績最好的一個季度，而且這兩個時期的收入幾乎相同。

Under our new strategy, we've increased our semiconductor systems revenue by 23% to the highest level in 15 years. We have put our services business on a growth trajectory, and increased our display net sales by over 50%. We have significantly reduced our investment in solar, which is down from 22% of revenue to only 2% today. And we have increased our non-GAAP gross margin by 1.8 points. We've also cut our tax rate and reduced our share count.

在新策略的指導下，我們的半導體系統收入成長了23%，達到15年來的最高水準。我們的服務業務走上了成長軌道，顯示器淨銷售額成長超過50%。我們大幅削減了太陽能領域的投資，其佔收入的比例已從22%降至目前的2%。此外，我們的非GAAP毛利率提高了1.8個百分點。同時，我們也降低了稅率並減少了流通股數。

As a result of these and other improvements, we delivered a 32% increase in non-GAAP earnings per share this quarter, versus Q2 of 2011, and we did this while investing 30% more in R&D. In short, we demonstrated momentum in Q3, delivering higher earnings power at similar revenue, even while investing significantly more in new products for future growth.

由於這些以及其他方面的改進，本季我們的非GAAP每股收益較2011年第二季成長了32%，而且我們是在研發投入增加30%的情況下實現這一目標的。簡而言之，我們在第三季展現了強勁的成長勢頭，在營收相近的情況下實現了更高的獲利能力，同時大幅增加了對新產品研發的投入，以期實現未來的成長。

And today, our momentum is accelerating. In Q3, we generated record orders of $3.7 billion, and we now have record backlog of $4.9 billion. We've grown our semiconductor orders and backlog to the highest level in 15 years, and our display orders in backlog to the highest level ever. We've grown our service orders by 9% year over year, and our backlog by 18% year over year.

如今，我們的成長勢頭正在加速。第三季度，我們創下了37億美元的訂單紀錄，目前積壓訂單也達到了創紀錄的49億美元。我們的半導體訂單和積壓訂單都達到了15年來的最高水平，顯示器訂單和積壓訂單也達到了歷史最高水平。我們的服務訂單年增了9%，積壓訂單年增了18%。

We're also making excellent progress towards our 2018 financial model. We're approaching our targets for revenue across semiconductor, services, and display. Today, we feel even more confident that we can hit or exceed our goal for WFE market share.

我們在實現2018年財務模型方面也取得了顯著進展。半導體、服務和顯示器業務的營收目標均已接近達成。今天，我們更有信心能夠實現甚至超越WFE市佔率目標。

We're making additional progress in gross margin, coming in at the high end of Q3 expectations. We're improving our efficiency, even as we significantly increase R&D funding for new projects. In fact, we reduced our OpEx to sales ratio to the lowest level in five years.

我們在毛利率方面取得了進一步進展，第三季業績超出預期。我們提高了營運效率，同時大幅增加了新專案的研發投入。事實上，我們的營運支出與銷售額之比已降至五年來的最低水準。

We increased our non-GAAP operating margin by 3.6 points this quarter to 22.8%, which is the highest in five years. We made further progress with our tax structure. If our geographic sales patterns continue, we now believe that we can sustain a non-GAAP tax rate of 12.5%.

本季我們的非GAAP營業利潤率提高了3.6個百分點，達到22.8%，創五年來新高。我們在稅務架構方面也取得了進一步進展。如果目前的銷售模式持續下去，我們相信可以維持12.5%的非GAAP稅率。

We achieved our share count objective ahead of schedule, and we remained opportunistic with the buy-back program, repurchasing 9 million shares in the quarter at an average price of $21.88. I hope you'll join us for the analysts meeting where I will give you more progress into our progress and momentum.

我們提前實現了股份數量目標，並且繼續積極推進股票回購計劃，本季以平均每股 21.88 美元的價格回購了 900 萬股。我希望您能參加分析師會議，屆時我將向您詳細介紹我們的進展和發展動能。

Next, I'll explain our segment reporting changes. Effective in Q3, we expanded our display segment to include roll to roll web coating systems, which were previously in EES. The segment is now called display and adjacent markets. We have also moved display equipment upgrades from AGS to display. These changes will enable us to realize technology, market, and management synergies.

接下來，我將解釋我們的業務分部報告調整。自第三季起，我們將展示業務分部擴展至包含卷對卷塗佈系統，該系統先前屬於電子工程服務（EES）分部。該分部現更名為展示及相關市場。此外，我們將展示設備升級業務從高級製造服務（AGS）分部轉移至展示業務分部。這些調整將有助於我們實現技術、市場和管理方面的綜效。

Applied's remaining solar business is now included in corporate and other, and we no longer report EES as a segment. The semiconductor systems segment is unchanged, and 200 millimeter equipment continues to be included in AGS. Our earnings release includes the information you'll need for your models.

應用材料公司剩餘的太陽能業務現已併入公司及其他業務板塊，我們不再將EES作為單獨的業務板塊進行報告。半導體系統業務板塊保持不變，200毫米設備業務仍包含在AGS業務板塊中。我們的獲利報告包含您模型所需的全部資訊。

Here are some of our segment highlights for Q3. We grew semiconductor systems revenue to the highest level in 15 years. We increased the non-GAAP operating margin by more than 5 points sequentially to 31.1%, which is the highest level in four years.

以下是我們第三季各業務板塊的一些亮點。半導體系統業務收入成長至15年來的最高水準。非GAAP營業利益率較上季成長超過5個百分點，達到31.1%，創四年來新高。

In Applied Global Services, we set a new revenue record of $657 million. In Display, we recorded record orders of $803 million, with more than half coming from projects in China. Compared to last quarter, we increased display revenue by 67%, and display operating margin by 3.5 points to 20.1%.

應用全球服務業務營收創下新紀錄，達到 6.57 億美元。顯示業務訂單金額也創下新高，達到 8.03 億美元，其中超過一半來自中國項目。與上一季相比，顯示業務營收成長 67%，營業利潤率提升 3.5 個百分點，達到 20.1%。

Moving to the balance sheet, we generated $981 million of cash from operations. Profitability and cash flow management were stronger in the quarter, and our year-to-date operating cash flow was $1.7 billion, or 22% of sales. In the quarter, operating cash flow was 35% of sales.

從資產負債表來看，我們透過經營活動產生了9.81億美元的現金流。本季獲利能力和現金流管理均有所改善，年初至今的營運現金流為17億美元，佔銷售額的22%。本季，經營現金流佔銷售額的比例為35%。

Now, I'll provide our fourth-quarter guidance. We expect our overall net sales to be up by 15% to 19% sequentially. Within this revenue outlook, we expect semiconductor systems to be up by 19% to 23% sequentially, AGI should be up by 3% to 6%, and Display should be up by 30% to 40%.

現在，我將提供我們第四季的業績指引。我們預期整體淨銷售額將較上季成長15%至19%。在這項營收預期中，我們預期半導體系統業務將較上季成長19%至23%，AGI業務將成長3%至6%，顯示器業務將成長30%至40%。

On a year-over-year basis, each of our businesses is on track for strong quarterly revenue growth. Using the midpoints of our Q4 guidance, we forecast that semiconductor systems revenue will be up by 45% year over year, with AGS up 12%, Display up 80%, and the total Company up 39%.

與去年同期相比，我們各項業務均可望實現強勁的季度營收成長。根據我們第四季業績指引的中位數，我們預測半導體系統業務營收將年增45%，其中AGS業務成長12%，顯示器業務成長80%，公司整體營收成長39%。

We expect Q4 non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately flat sequentially. Non-GAAP operating expenses should be $600 million, plus or minus $10 million, and lower as a percentage of sales, and we expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $0.61 to $0.69. This earnings guidance represents a new record for the Company, and a doubling of last year's Q4 performance.

我們預計第四季非GAAP毛利率將與上一季基本持平。非GAAP營運費用預計為6億美元，上下浮動1,000萬美元，佔銷售額的比例將會下降。我們預計非GAAP每股盈餘將在0.61美元至0.69美元之間。這項獲利預期創下公司歷史新高，是去年同期業績的兩倍。

In closing, I believe our momentum is sustainable. Let me explain why. Our Q4 guidance reflects how uniquely well positioned the Company is in major inflections, including in 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer, 3D NAND, OLED, and the Chinese market. While customers' spending patterns will continue to vary from quarter to quarter, we are growing faster than our markets, and accelerating our profitability. And we're just beginning to see the positive effects of a stronger product pipeline and better execution across the Company.

最後，我相信我們的發展動能能夠持續。讓我解釋一下原因。我們第四季的業績預期反映了公司在重大轉折點上的獨特優勢，包括10奈米和7奈米製程、3D NAND快閃記憶體、OLED以及中國市場。儘管客戶的支出模式仍會逐季波動，但我們的成長速度超過了市場平均水平，獲利能力也在加速提升。我們才剛開始看到更強大的產品線和公司整體更有效率的執行所帶來的正面影響。

Based on customer pull for our products and services, I believe we'll have strong orders in Q4 of 2016, and Q1 of 2017. And while it is too early to know our earnings in Q1 of 2017, I believe we can double our Q1 non-GAAP EPS year-over-year. Now, let me turn the call over to Mike for questions.

基於客戶對我們產品和服務的需求，我相信我們在2016年第四季和2017年第一季將迎來強勁的訂單成長。雖然現在預測2017年第一季的獲利還為時過早，但我相信我們第一季的非GAAP每股盈餘可以比去年同期成長一倍。現在，我把電話交給Mike，請他提問。

(Caller Instructions)

（來電者指示）

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Tim Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

提姆·阿庫裡，考恩公司。

So obviously, great, great quarter and obviously, big opportunity in display. I guess, I want to ask a question on SSG. So if I take the orders you booked last quarter and I take this quarter's orders, it's about $4.2 billion, and if I use your SSG share model of roughly 22%. That implies that the overall WFE market is run rating in the first half of roughly $40 [billion].

顯然，本季業績非常出色，顯示器市場也蘊藏著巨大的機會。我想問一個關於SSG的問題。如果我把上季和本季的訂單總額加起來，大約是42億美元，如果我採用你們SSG約22%的市佔率模型，這意味著整個WFE市場上半年的預期規模約為400億美元。

So that begs the conclusion, either this year is pretty front half loaded or you guys are gaining a lot more share, and that you're going to end the year quite a bit higher than 22%, and it has to be several hundred basis points higher than 22%. So I guess, I'm wondering if you can comment on whether the numbers imply that the year is a little front half loaded, or whether it just implies that you're gaining that much share? Thanks.

所以這就引出了一個結論：要嘛今年的業績主要集中在上半年，要嘛你們的市佔率成長非常迅猛，最終的市佔率會遠高於22%，而且肯定比22%高出幾百個基點。所以我想請教一下，這些數據究竟是顯示今年的業績主要集中在上半年，還是只是顯示你們的市佔率成長如此迅猛？謝謝。

Sure, Tim, let me see if I can help. In terms of the loading of the year, historically what you see is that the foundry is particularly good in calendar end of Q1, Q2, in terms of shipments. I'm doing shipments and bookings is close for them.

當然可以，提姆，我看看能不能幫忙。就全年的訂單量而言，根據以往經驗，鑄造廠在第一季末和第二季末的出貨量通常都特別好。我負責他們的出貨和預訂工作，現在已經接近尾聲了。

This year, though, it was later in the year, as you remember. So we have been strong in foundry as they're ramping things like 10 and early 7, and then memory was stronger in the beginning of this year. If you look at Applied specifically, we benefited earlier in the year, because we've gained share in memory, we've gained share in DRAM, we've gained share in NAND, and that kept us strong.

不過，如您所知，今年的情況比較特殊，成長來得比較晚。我們在晶圓代工領域表現強勁，因為他們正在加速生產像10系列和早期7系列這樣的產品，而記憶體業務在今年年初表現更為強勁。具體到應用材料公司，我們年初就受益匪淺，因為我們在記憶體、DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體的市場份額都有所提升，這讓我們保持了強勁的勢頭。

For instance, historically, the last couple of years, we were about 38%, 40%, for full-year numbers for foundry, but we were only about 37% in Q2. We're up over 50% now in foundry in Q4 and Q1. Okay?

例如，從歷史數據來看，過去幾年，鑄造業務的全年佔比約為38%到40%，但第二季只有37%左右。現在，第四季和第一季的鑄造業務佔比都超過了50%。明白了嗎？

So what you're seeing is we're [benefiting] from secular improvement in Applied, but also some seasonal strengthening in foundry. So both things are working for us. So we will gain share this year, pretty significant. We don't want to say the specific number.

所以，您看到的是，我們受益於應用金屬產業的長期成長，以及鑄造業的季節性走強。這兩方面都對我們有利。因此，我們今年的市佔率將大幅成長。我們目前不方便透露具體數字。

In terms of WFE, the $40 billion run rate, I don't think WFE is that high. I think we're having some strength now. Last quarter we said it was [$31.6 billion-plus], and this quarter it's probably up closer to [$32.6 billion] is my guess.

就WFE而言，400億美元的年化率，我認為並不高。我認為我們目前正處於強勁增長期。上個季度我們預測是316億美元以上，我估計這個季度可能會接近326億美元。

But what you're seeing is secular gains for Applied across particularly memory, strong positions in foundry, and also the China thing is helping us, a lot of things are working for us. That secular stuff is working for us, and also the seasonality in foundry is helping in the next couple of quarters.

但你看到的是應用材料在儲存領域，尤其是鑄造領域，實現了長期成長，並且中國市場也對我們有所幫助，很多因素都對我們有利。這些長期成長因素對我們有利，鑄造業的季節性波動也將在未來幾季對我們有所幫助。

What I would add also is that in 10 and 7 nanometer foundry, our TAM is growing significantly, if you look at those two nodes together, about 30%, and we have the initial adoption of many new platforms. We're actually winning more market share also in 10 and 7 nanometer, and we're still in the early innings of some of these new platforms that are being adopted. The Selectra product, Olympia, PROVision, LK Prime, Precision CVD, very, very strong adoption of those new platforms.

我還想補充一點，在10奈米和7奈米晶圓代工領域，我們的潛在市場規模（TAM）正在顯著成長。如果將這兩個節點合併來看，成長幅度約為30%。此外，我們也積極推廣許多新平台。事實上，我們在10奈米和7奈米領域也正在贏得更多市場份額，而我們目前仍處於這些新平台應用的早期階段。 Selectra產品、Olympia、PROVision、LK Prime、Precision CVD等新平台的應用都非常強勁。

And then in memory, as Bob talked about, we're gaining share in memory and especially in 3D NAND. 3D NAND is materials-enabled, not litho-enabled. So our TAM is expanding significantly, and there also we have many new innovative products, including the Sym3 which is the fastest-ramping product in the history of the Company. So overall, this is going to be great share gain year for Applied Materials, and we're incredibly well-positioned going forward.

正如鮑伯所說，在記憶體領域，我們的市場份額，尤其是在3D NAND領域，正在不斷成長。 3D NAND是材料驅動的，而非光刻驅動的。因此，我們的潛在市場規模正在顯著擴大。此外，我們還有許多創新產品，包括Sym3，它是公司史上產能爬坡速度最快的產品。總而言之，對於應用材料公司而言，今年將是市場份額大幅增長的一年，我們為未來的發展做好了充分準備。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝你，提姆。

Romit Shah, Nomura.

Romit Shah，野村證券。

Thank you, and congratulations on the excellent results. Bob, you mentioned that you expected orders to remain strong in Q4 and Q1. Does that mean that we shouldn't expect orders to decline from these levels? I was hoping you could talk specifically around your expectations for display orders, seeing them at $800 million here?

謝謝，也祝賀你們取得如此優異的成績。鮑勃，你提到預計第四季和第一季的訂單量將保持強勁。這是否意味著我們不應該預期訂單量會從目前的水準下降？我希望你能具體談談你對顯示器訂單的預期，我看到目前的訂單量是 8 億美元。

Sure, we, I think at the end of last call, when we had orders in Q2 of $3.451 billion, that I said our orders would sustain and that we would continue to have strong orders. In fact, we beat this quarter with $3.658 billion, $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, I think Q4 and Q1 are both pretty strong. I'm not sure they're quite as strong as we were the last two quarters, but they're bigger than probably any quarter we had last year, yes, it's going to be pretty big, still. So, it is probably going to have a $3 billion handle on it, frankly.

當然，我想在上次電話會議結束時，我們第二季度的訂單額為34.51億美元，當時我說過我們的訂單量會保持穩定，並且會繼續保持強勁勢頭。事實上，我們本季的訂單金額超過了預期，達到了36.58億美元、36億美元和37億美元。我認為第四季和第一季的業績都相當不錯。我不確定它們是否像前兩個季度那樣強勁，但它們可能比去年任何一個季度都要高，是的，仍然會非常可觀。坦白說，最終的訂單金額可能會達到30億美元左右。

Can you talk just about -- ?

你能談談——嗎？

Farhan Ahmad, Credit Suisse.

Farhan Ahmad，瑞士信貸。

I just have a quick one. In terms of your 2017 outlook, Gary, you mentioned that the [WFE] is expected to be up year-on-year. Can you just provide us some color in terms of the overall spending by the transition to [3D NAND], in terms of like memory versus foundry, and NAND, if you see those, how you see that expanding (inaudible), and also for display?

我有個簡短的問題。 Gary，關於你對2017年的展望，你提到[WFE]預計會比去年同期成長。你能否具體談談向[3D NAND]過渡的整體支出情況，例如記憶體和晶圓代工的支出情況，以及NAND快閃記憶體的支出情況？你認為NAND快閃記憶體的支出會如何成長？ （聽不清楚）還有顯示器方面的狀況？

This is Bob. I could kick it off, and then Gary can jump in, too. In terms of this year, what you see is trends that are helping us a lot frankly.

我是鮑伯。我可以先拋磚引玉，然後加里也可以加入。就今年而言，你們看到的這些趨勢坦白說對我們幫助很大。

You see strong spending in NAND. Whereas last year NAND was about -- and I'll go into 2017 for you, too -- in 2015 rather, NAND was about [6.8] This year it's up 40% to 45%, about [9.7]

你可以看到NAND快閃記憶體的支出非常強勁。去年NAND快閃記憶體的支出約為－我也會提及2017年的狀況－2015年，NAND快閃記憶體的支出約為[6.8]。今年，NAND快閃記憶體的支出成長了40%到45%，約[9.7]。

And that is 90% for V-NAND. What we see next year is that NAND is going to be up a little more actually, and it's going to be like 98% V-NAND. And our position is very strong. In fact, some of the share gains we're seeing this year, you didn't quite see them last year, because last year was about 50% 2D, and our gains are really strong on the transition to 3D, so that will continue for us next year.

V-NAND 目前佔 90%。我們預計明年 NAND 的佔比將進一步提升，V-NAND 的比例將達到 98%。我們的地位非常穩固。事實上，我們今年取得的部分市佔率成長，去年並沒有出現，因為去年 2D 快閃記憶體的佔比約為 50%，而我們在向 3D 快閃記憶體過渡的過程中取得了強勁的成長，預計明年這一趨勢將繼續保持。

So NAND up some next year. Almost all V-NAND, and our position very strong. In terms of foundry, we think foundry could be flat to up 5% next year. We think it's going to be very good for us on the leading edge, and we also think it's going to be good for us on the trailing edge in China, and things like that.

所以明年NAND快閃記憶體價格會有所上漲。幾乎全部是V-NAND閃存，而且我們的地位非常穩固。至於晶圓代工，我們認為明年晶圓代工市場可能會持平或上漲5%。我們認為這對我們領先市場的廠商非常有利，對我們在中國等後發廠商的廠商來說也是如此。

DRAM, we think it could be up a little bit. This year was down 25% to 30%, maybe 25%, we said in the call. Next year, maybe up a little bit.

我們認為DRAM價格可能會小幅上漲。今年DRAM價格下跌了25%到30%，或許是25%，我們在電話會議中也提過。明年，價格可能會小幅上漲。

But it's the smallest of our numbers, pretty much now, except for logic is a little less. So it's about 5.9[%] this year, up a little bit next year. And then logic is probably up a little bit next year, also. So overall we see an opportunity to go up some next year, but it particularly plays for us around NAND and foundry.

但就目前而言，它在我們各項業務中的佔比最小，邏輯電路的佔比略低一些。今年大約是 5.9%，明年可能會略有成長。邏輯電路明年可能也會略有成長。因此，總體而言，我們認為明年有機會有所成長，尤其是在 NAND 快閃記憶體和晶圓代工方面。

The second thing that you asked about was display. Display CapEx, you guys don't follow as closely. 2015 display CapEx, and there's not as good of estimates, but we think it was a little bit over $8 billion maybe. This year it could be around $14.5 billion. We think next year continues at similar numbers, maybe a little bit more.

您問的第二個問題是展示方面的資本支出。你們對這方面的關注度可能不太高。 2015 年的展示資本支出，雖然沒有非常精確的估算，但我們估計可能略高於 80 億美元。今年可能在 145 億美元左右。我們認為明年會保持類似的水平，甚至可能略高一些。

Steven Chin, UBS.

Steven Chin，瑞銀集團。

Gary, Bob, also congrats on the results. My question is on the memory orders. The memory orders declined pretty meaningfully in the July quarter. I was just wondering if you think that was just timing related, or do you think it's a function of the more rational spend by customers? Could we see a snap back in memory orders in the October quarter? Thanks.

Gary、Bob，也祝賀你們取得佳績。我的問題是關於內存訂單的。 7 月的記憶體訂單量出現了相當明顯的下滑。我想知道你們認為這只是時間因素造成的，還是因為顧客的消費比較理性了？ 10 月的記憶體訂單量會不會反彈？謝謝。

Yes, so I think that stuff is lumpy. We still see very strong demand from customers, particularly around V-NAND stuff. So we had a huge number in Q2 for V-NAND, because people frankly want to get in our production queue. In Q3, we have reasonable NAND orders, but not as big as they were in Q2. So I would say the demand is still strong. We're getting a lot of pull in NAND, still. I wouldn't read too much into the orders' lumpiness.

是的，所以我認為訂單量波動較大。我們仍然看到客戶需求非常強勁，尤其是在V-NAND方面。第二季V-NAND的訂單量非常大，因為大家都想盡快下單。第三季NAND訂單量尚可，但不如第二季那麼大。所以我認為需求依然強勁。 NAND的需求依然旺盛。訂單量的波動不必過度解讀。

Yes, I think the demand for 3D NAND is certainly extremely strong. Customers can sell everything that they can build. And if you look at where we're at in terms of that transition to 3D NAND, we're still not that far along in the overall transition, and so every customer is moving as fast as they can from planar to 3D, and so our thinking for 3D NAND going forward is still very strong, certainly in 2017, still very strong.

是的，我認為市場對3D NAND的需求確實非常強勁。客戶能夠生產所有產品，並且能夠全部售出。就我們目前向3D NAND過渡的階段而言，我們整體上還沒有走得很遠，因此每個客戶都在盡可能快地從平面NAND過渡到3D NAND。所以，我們對3D NAND未來發展的信心依然非常堅定，尤其是在2017年。

Thanks, Steven.

謝謝你，史蒂文。

Atif Malik, Citigroup.

阿提夫·馬利克，花旗集團。

Congratulations on a great quarter. Bob, on the gross margins I understand a great job from Q2 of 2011, but if I compare it to your 2018 financial model, [slap] gross margins versus 44.6% at $33.5 billion WFE, a little bit below that mark. What will get us, what will get the gross margins higher from these levels? I understand the display mix hurts the gross margins, but the foundry mix helps them.

恭喜你們本季表現出色。鮑勃，關於毛利率，我知道你們2011年第二季度做得非常好，但如果和你們2018年的財務模型相比，毛利率（拍手）比44.6%（WFE為335億美元）略低。怎麼樣才能讓毛利率從目前的水準繼續提升呢？我知道顯示器產品組合會影響毛利率，但代工產品組合會提升毛利率。

Sure, I think we're actually making progress. I thought earlier in the year we would stay flat to last year, and we're up a little bit. Last year was 42.9%, we're about 43.2%, and this was a particularly strong year for display and also etch did very well, too.

當然，我認為我們確實取得了進展。年初的時候我以為我們會和去年持平，但現在略有成長。去年是42.9%，我們今年大約是43.2%，今年展覽方面表現尤為強勁，蝕刻工藝也做得非常好。

Now let me just say, display and etch are adding a lot to the operating profits of the Company. Their models are a little bit different. For instance, display has a little lower gross margins, very comparable as they mature, operating margin profile. And then etch has significantly grown their operating profit for the Company the last several years, and their operating margins have gone up a fair amount.

現在我想說的是，顯示和蝕刻業務都為公司貢獻了大量的營業利潤。它們的商業模式略有不同。例如，顯示業務的毛利率略低，但隨著業務的成熟，其營業利潤率與蝕刻業務非常接近。而蝕刻業務在過去幾年顯著提高了公司的營業利潤，其營業利潤率也大幅提升。

In terms of the specific question of 44.6%, we said we would do 44.6% in 2018. If you took, I think I said last quarter, if you took the mix we had, and if you took the gross margins we had by individual product, and compared it to 2014 mix, we were like 44.7%. This quarter we did the same analysis, we're like 44.9%. So we're beating it if the mix didn't change.

關於44.6%這個具體目標，我們之前說過2018年要達到44.6%。如果回顧上個季度，考慮到我們的產品組合以及各產品的毛利率，並與2014年的產品組合進行比較，我們當時的毛利率大約是44.7%。本季我們做了同樣的分析，結果是44.9%。所以，在產品組合不變的情況下，我們超額完成了目標。

So what we face is mix. We can offset a bunch of the mix. I don't know if we can offset all of it. So I think we'll make progress to the 44.6% the next two years. 44.6% was a 2018 number.

所以我們面臨的是混合型排放。我們可以抵消其中一部分影響，但我不知道能否完全抵消。所以我認為未來兩年​​我們能朝著44.6%的目標邁進。 44.6%是2018年的數據。

Will we get there, I'm not quite sure, because of the mix, but I feel very good about the top line, the gross profit dollars, the operating profit, and the EPS of the Company. The main issue is just the mix on the gross margin because things like cost reduction are doing well. Our negotiations are going well. It's just the mix is the issue. And the operating margin doesn't get impacted as much as the gross margin with those businesses.

我們能否達成目標，我不太確定，因為業務組合比較複雜，但我對公司的營收、毛利、營業利潤和每股盈餘都非常滿意。主要問題在於毛利率的組成，因為像成本削減這樣的措施效果不錯。我們的談判進展順利。問題就出在業務組合。而且，這些業務對營業利益率的影響遠小於對毛利率的影響。

Thanks, Atif.

謝謝你，阿提夫。

Krish Sankar, Bank of America.

Krish Sankar，美國銀行。

I just wanted to follow up on the gross margin question. With the second half with more foundry logic investments coming up for 10 nanometer, I was under the assumption that should be extremely positive for your gross margin profile. So I'm just curious if that is going to be more back half loaded and into 2017, should we at least expect gross margins to improve into the fiscal Q1 given that it is flat in fiscal Q4? Thank you.

我想就毛利率問題再做進一步說明。鑑於下半年貴公司將加大對10奈米製程晶片的邏輯晶片投資，我原本以為這將大大提升貴公司的毛利率。所以我想問的是，如果這些投資主要集中在下半年甚至2017年，考慮到第四財季毛利率持平，我們是否至少可以預期第一財季毛利率會有所改善？謝謝。

They might. Depends on the mix. Remember that in Q3 and Q4, we've been growing a lot, very strong, in terms of revenues, for both display and our etch business, and memory, for instance. So if in Q1 -- we probably are going to be strong, pretty much across the board.

有可能。這取決於具體情況。記住，在第三季和第四季度，我們的營收成長非常強勁，無論是顯示器業務、蝕刻業務還是記憶體業務都是如此。所以，如果第一季——我們很可能也會保持強勁勢頭，幾乎所有業務都會如此。

So foundry, I think, has a potential to be strong, but I also think we'll be strong in display and probably in revenues and memory, because some of the revenues we ship into NAND in Japan are delayed about a quarter after the shipment. So my guess is a little bit of upside opportunity in Q1, but I don't want to be too specific now.

所以我認為晶圓代工業務有強勁的潛力，但我也認為我們在顯示器、營收和記憶體業務方面也會表現強勁，因為我們在日本出貨的NAND快閃晶片的部分營收會在出貨後大約一個季度才到賬。所以我估計第一季會有一些成長空間，但我現在不想說得太具體。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Congratulations on the solid quarterly results and execution. I know the focus by the market on display has been on OLED. But it seems like even in the core the large screen LCD segment, there's a lot of forward opportunity, there's still a lot of focus on 4K UHD. I think one of your peers recently in their call talked about three customers that have plans for Gen 10.5 LCD plant investments in the not too distant future. So I'm just wondering if you're starting to see that in your pipeline, and is it something that you would expect orders for this year, or is this more something 2018 or 2019 time frame?

恭喜貴公司季度業績穩健，執行力優異。我知道目前市場對顯示器的重點主要集中在OLED上。但即便在核心的大螢幕LCD領域，似乎也存在著很大的發展空間，4K UHD仍備受關注。我記得貴公司的一位同行最近在電話會議上提到，有三家客戶計劃在不久的將來投資建造第10.5代LCD生產線。所以我想了解一下，貴公司是否也開始看到類似的訂單，以及這些訂單預計今年就能到位，還是要等到2018年或2019年？

Yes, I'll start and Gary can jump in. Actually the core display orders for LCDs and related TVs have held up probably a little better than we thought, and it looks like there might be an opportunity there. Now what's the big inflection is the OLED stuff. But I do agree with you that the LCD and TV stuff has held up a little better than we expected.

好的，我先說，Gary 可以接著說。實際上，液晶顯示器和相關電視的核心訂單量可能比我們預想的要好一些，看來這方面可能有機會。現在真正的轉折點在於 OLED 顯示器。但我同意你的看法，液晶顯示器和電視的訂單量確實比我們預期的要好一些。

I guess, I can also add that in display is a great opportunity for Applied Materials. We're still in the early innings in this smartphone transition to OLED. And the display is a key differentiator for mobile devices. So in the near-term, near-term being over the next couple years, this is going to be a great driver for us.

我想，我還可以補充一點，顯示技術對應用材料公司來說是一個巨大的機會。智慧型手機向OLED過渡的進程仍處於早期階段。顯示器是行動裝置的關鍵差異化因素。因此，在短期內——也就是未來幾年——這將是我們業務發展的重要驅動力。

If we think longer term, we also see large technology companies making huge investments in new areas like VR, AR and automotive, where display can be significant. We're also developing new innovative products that will significantly expand our served market, over the next several years. So normalized spending in display can be higher than in the past, and also our TAM is expanding on top of that.

從長遠來看，我們也看到大型科技公司正在VR、AR和汽車等新興領域進行巨額投資，而顯示技術在這些領域都至關重要。此外，我們正在開發創新產品，這些產品將在未來幾年顯著擴大我們的服務市場。因此，顯示領域的常規支出可能會高於以往，而且我們的潛在市場規模也不斷擴大。

And the last thing on this one I'd like to say is that really the display is an example of where we can take materials engineering into a new market, an adjacent market, and Applied is really unique in our ability to enable this big inflection, and drive growth. So really overall, great, great opportunity for the Company.

最後我想說的是，這次展示充分展現了我們如何將材料工程技術應用於一個全新的、相鄰的市場，而應用材料公司在推動這一重大變革和成長方面擁有獨一無二的優勢。總而言之，這對公司來說是一個絕佳的機會。

Patrick Ho, Stifel.

Patrick Ho，Stifel。

Thank you very much, and also congratulations. Gary, as you look at the 3D NAND market share gains you have made to date, which process segments do you believe you have made the most gains? And as the industry goes to, say, 64 layers and higher, where do you see incremental gains for the Company on a going-forward basis?

非常感謝，也恭喜你。 Gary，回顧你迄今為止在3D NAND市佔率方面的成就，你認為哪些工藝環節的進展最為顯著？隨著產業發展到例如64層以上，你認為公司未來在哪些方面還有進步空間？

So I think the most important thing for people to think about on 3D NAND is that this is a materials-enabled inflection, not litho-enabled. It is the biggest change in memory technology in decades. So when you think materials-enabled, it really, the products that we have targeted for 3D NAND, the Sym3 etch tool, is the fastest ramp we've ever had for any system in Applied Materials, and we're still in the early innings.

所以我認為，對於3D NAND來說，最重要的是要明白，這是材料驅動的變革，而非光刻技術的變革。這是幾十年來儲存技術領域最大的變革。說到材料驅動，我們針對3D NAND開發的產品——Sym3蝕刻工具——是應用材料公司迄今為止所有系統中產能爬坡速度最快的，而我們目前仍處於早期階段。

One of the things that I believe is that we can grow as fast as we can qualify. We have so much pull from customers on Sym3. There is still an opportunity for growth there.

我相信，只要我們能獲得足夠的客戶，我們的成長速度就能與之匹敵。我們在Sym3平台上擁有龐大的客戶群，因此仍有很大的成長空間。

Our CVD business is growing significantly. This year, we expect strong revenue growth in CVD, gaining several points of overall share, very, very strong position in 3D NAND. So that's another area where, when you look at the 64 layers, or you're going forward, there is a tremendous opportunity.

我們的CVD業務正在顯著成長。今年，我們預期CVD業務的營收將強勁成長，整體市佔率將提升幾個百分點，並在3D NAND領域佔據非常非常穩固的地位。因此，在64層NAND領域，或者說在展望未來時，這又是一個蘊藏著巨大機會的領域。

The number of CMP steps also double in, maybe two or even in some cases 3 times number of CMP steps. So that's another area where we have really, really a great position. And this is the first time, also, for us to introduce epi into a memory device. So there are a number of different areas where we have innovative new platforms, innovative new products, and really tremendous pull from customers, that give us a great opportunity as 3D NAND goes forward.

CMP 製程步驟的數量也翻了一番，甚至在某些情況下會翻兩番或三番。因此，這是我們另一個擁有巨大優勢的領域。此外，這也是我們首次將外延技術引入儲存裝置。我們在多個領域擁有創新的平台和產品，客戶需求旺盛，這為我們在 3D NAND 的發展中提供了絕佳的機會。

Weston Twigg, Pacific Crest.

韋斯頓·特威格，太平洋山脊。

Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to touch on the logic spending being down this year. Wondering why you think it is down, if that is related to slowing node transitions, and to maybe gauge your conviction in it being up next year, like you commented? And if the softness is related to slowing node transitions, I'm just wondering if you could comment on any risk that that spills over into the foundry segment?

感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想談談今年邏輯晶片支出下降的問題。我想知道您認為下降的原因，是否與製程製程轉型放緩有關，以及您是否像您之前所說的那樣，對明年邏輯晶片支出回升充滿信心？如果邏輯晶片支出疲軟確實與製程製程轉型放緩有關，我想請您談談這種情況是否會對晶圓代工領域造成影響？

Yes, we have, the numbers we have -- now remember we have in logic, we have a major US company and also some Japanese companies, and things like that. So our numbers show it is down 5% to 10% this year, and up 5% -- flat to 5% next year. Let me pull up the details.

是的，我們有數據——記住，我們這裡包括一家大型美國公司和一些日本公司等等。所以我們的數據顯示，今年下降了5%到10%，明年上升了5%，持平或成長5%。讓我把詳細資料調出來。

Let me take the second part of that, while Bob is pulling up the information on logic. Relative to foundry, what we see is that all of our customers, all of our customers, are targeting 7 nanometer as a big node, very big node. There is a lot of customers, of their customers, that are taping out, and so that is a big opportunity, and every single one of our customers are in a race to be in the right position, as that node ramps.

讓我來談談第二部分，鮑伯正在查閱邏輯的資訊。就晶圓代工而言，我們看到所有客戶都將7奈米作為主要製程節點，甚至是超主要製程節點。很多客戶，或者說他們的客戶，都在進行流片，所以這是一個巨大的機遇，我們所有的客戶都在競相搶佔先機，以應對該過程節點量產的挑戰。

So the pull we're getting from customers on 10/7 is extremely strong. And as Bob said earlier, we see strong business in the trailing nodes, also in foundry, and we see that, China being a big part of that. But we see that also continuing, going forward in the future. So at least from what we're seeing today, our customers in terms of advanced foundry, and also relative to the trailing nodes in foundry, it looks like, and what customers are saying, is that the business will be good for the next few years.

因此，10月7日我們從客戶那裡得到的訂單需求非常強勁。正如Bob之前所說，我們看到後節點業務以及晶圓代工業務都非常強勁，其中中國市場佔了很大一部分。我們預計這種趨勢將在未來持續下去。所以至少從我們目前的情況來看，無論是先進晶圓代工還是後節點晶圓代工，客戶的回饋都表明，未來幾年業務前景良好。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

喬摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Great, thank you. Bob, I thought your comments about making good progress towards the 2018 model, where you stated your silicon systems business is approaching the size that you talked about for 2018 on the type of WFE number, the midpoint that you talked about.

太好了，謝謝。鮑勃，我注意到你提到公司在實現 2018 年目標方面取得了良好進展，你提到你的矽系統業務正在接近你之前提到的 2018 年 WFE 指標的中點規模。

So is that, are you doing better earlier, because you're taking more market share, is the TAM expanding faster? If you could just talk about that? And if, obviously, we'll wait till next month to get the full forecast, but any thoughts on, will that continue to move higher from here on both share and TAM? Thanks.

所以，是不是因為你們的市佔率成長更快，所以早期業績才更好？ TAM（總市場規模）擴張速度也更快嗎？能否談談這方面？當然，我們得等到下個月才能看到完整的預測，但您認為市場佔有率和TAM會繼續成長嗎？謝謝。

Yes, on the semi stuff two things have really compounded for us. So in fairness to us we kind of predicted, that is why we are positioned. But, one, the market changes have come up, frankly, as we expected in terms of the transition from 2D to 3D, and also, the products they need and the transition on foundry has been going that way. And also China has helped somewhat, and we've always been strong in China. We kept our strength there.

是的，在半導體業務方面，有兩件事對我們影響很大。公平地說，我們其實已經有所預料，這也是我們目前佈局的原因。首先，市場變化正如我們預期的那樣，從2D到3D的轉型以及晶圓代工的需求都在朝著這個方向發展。其次，中國市場也扮演了一定的推動作用，我們一直在中國市場保持強大的實力。

So those market inflections in semi, and also we'll talk about display market inflections, we had a pretty good feel for those coming, but we didn't have exactly the right products there. So we strengthened our product positions in places like etch, CVD, ALD, inspection, we're going to be talking about more, because we think you need more and more of that, particularly eBeam as you get through foundry and logic in places like that. So it's a compounding of the market, turned out pretty close to what we expected, and we had the right products there.

所以，半導體市場的這些轉折點，以及我們之後會談到的顯示器市場的轉折點，我們之前都有相當不錯的預判，但我們當時並沒有完全符合市場需求的產品。因此，我們加強了在蝕刻、CVD、ALD、檢測等領域的產品佈局。我們之後也會詳細介紹這些領域，因為我們認為隨著代工和邏輯電路等環節的推進，這些技術的需求會越來越大，尤其是電子束檢測。所以，這是一個綜合性的市場變化，結果與我們的預期基本一致，而我們也確實在這些領域擁有了合適的產品。

The reason you're seeing acceleration this year frankly, is the market inflections are happening this year. For instance, this year, you're seeing a big spend increase in NAND, and it's 90% V-NAND, that's where the share opportunities are. And we're seeing a fair amount of spending at 10 and 7, where we're strong. And you see OLED spending in display, and we've introduced new products in each one of those markets to capitalize on it. So we are probably ahead of plan, frankly.

坦白說，今年成長加速的原因在於市場轉折點出現在今年。例如，今年NAND快閃記憶體的支出大幅成長，其中90%是V-NAND，這正是市佔率成長的關鍵所在。我們在10吋和7吋快閃記憶體領域也看到了相當可觀的支出，而這些正是我們的優勢所在。此外，OLED顯示領域的支出也在成長，我們已在上述所有市場推出了新產品以把握機會。因此，坦白說，我們的業績可能已經超前於預期。

Edwin Mok, Needham & Company.

Edwin Mok，Needham & Company。

So I just have a question about sustainability, of how sustainable this ramp of multiple areas, and I guess specifically related to customer concentration. So it seems like leading edge foundry, 10 and 7 nanometer foundry and also OLED are big drivers now, or definitely a big driver for you this last quarter, and you said those are sustainable. So I was wondering, are you seeing like broadening or increased number of customer, both from leading edge 10/7 foundry, as well as (inaudible) increased number of display customers placing orders for OLED, or is it still concentrated at one or two customer, just that those customers are aggressively ramping? That's all I have. Thanks.

我有個關於永續性的問題，想問大家多領域產能擴張的可持續性如何，特別是客戶集中度方面。目前看來，10奈米和7奈米晶圓代工以及OLED是主要驅動力，或至少是上個季度的主要驅動力，您也說過這些業務是可持續的。所以我想問的是，您是否看到客戶數量增加，包括來自10奈米/7奈米晶圓代工的客戶，以及（聽不清楚）訂購OLED的顯示器客戶數量也有所增加？還是說仍然集中在一兩個客戶身上，只是這些客戶正在積極擴大產能？我的問題就這些。謝謝。

I'll start and Gary can jump in again. So there's several inflections we've noted. One is NAND, one is OLED, one is China, and the other one, which is going on right now is foundry, leading edge in particular. So let me speak to those.

我先開始，Gary 可以接著說。我們已經注意到幾個轉折點。一個是 NAND 閃存，一個是 OLED，一個是中國，另一個，也是目前正在發生的，是晶圓代工，特別是尖端晶圓代工。接下來我來談談這些。

NAND is -- there is about 1.4 million wafer starts in the world. By the end of this year, it's going to be around 400,000 transition to V-NAND. We think the vast majority of those get transitioned for many reasons. We think the spending on NAND probably is up next year, and our position is strong, and we think that transition remains strong for a number of years, and plays very well for us. We think in OLED, they're in pretty early innings on the transition to OLED on the phones. In fact, the orders we're showing that we've been booking, and we have some more to come, those things will ship through 2017 into early 2018.

NAND快閃記憶體－目前全球約有140萬片晶圓開工。到今年年底，預計將有約40萬片晶圓過渡到V-NAND快閃記憶體。我們認為，絕大多數晶圓過渡的原因有很多。我們預計明年NAND快閃記憶體的支出可能會增加，而我們目前處於有利地位，我們認為這種過渡趨勢將在未來幾年內保持強勁勢頭，這對我們非常有利。在OLED領域，我們認為手機OLED螢幕的過渡還處於早期階段。事實上，我們目前已收到的訂單（還有一些訂單即將到來）表明，這些產品將在2017年到2018年初陸續出貨。

So we're going to see revenues from that for a while. And that's just what we have been booking, okay? And we believe there is more down the road, okay? So this OLED transition is going to go on for a while, and we have enriched the opportunity for us by developing new products there, just as we have in semi.

所以，我們會在一段時間內持續獲得這方面的收入。這只是我們目前的預期，好嗎？而我們相信未來還會有更多收益，好嗎？ OLED 的轉型將會持續一段時間，而我們透過開發新產品，就像我們在半導體領域所做的那樣，為我們創造了更多機會。

In terms of China as an inflection, I mean, just listen to the Chinese government, they're in this for the long term, and their interest in investing in the semiconductor is probably only going to increase, okay? And our position is strong.

就中國這個轉折點而言，我的意思是，聽聽中國政府的說法，他們著眼於長遠發展，而且他們對半導體行業的投資興趣只會越來越濃厚，明白嗎？我們的地位非常穩固。

Finally the foundry one you asked about, Edwin, which we're particularly focused on, right now the leading edge is strong, and it's strong into early next year. And that one does have some seasonality, but if you look at the longer term trends there and just listen to the voice of our biggest customer, about 50% of their growth is going to be come from more features in phones, and about 50% is everything else that you see in Silicon Valley, whether it's autonomous cars, virtual reality, machine learning, AI, all these things, driving about 50%. And it isn't just one big thing, it's a whole slew of things.

最後，關於您提到的代工廠，Edwin，我們目前特別關注的領域，其領先優勢非常強勁，而且這種強勁勢頭將持續到明年初。雖然這方面確實存在一些季節性因素，但如果您著眼於長期趨勢，並聽聽我們最大客戶的意見，就會發現他們大約 50% 的增長將來自手機功能的增加，而另外 50% 的增長則來自矽谷的其他領域，例如自動駕駛汽車、虛擬現實、機器學習、人工智慧等等。這並非單一因素驅動，而是多種因素共同作用的結果。

I think we're going to do a Investor Day, a very interesting discussion about virtual reality, and not just what it drives in display, but what it drives in memory, and what it drives in advanced processors. So in foundry, on the leading edge, it isn't just phones. 50% of leading-edge customers is content in phones going up, but 50% is all this other stuff, which you can see, okay?

我認為我們會舉辦一次投資者日活動，屆時將就虛擬實境展開一場非常有趣的討論，不僅探討它對顯示技術的影響，還會探討它對內存和先進處理器的影響。因此，在晶圓代工領域，尖端技術的應用不僅限於手機。雖然尖端客戶中有 50% 的需求是提升手機性能，但另外 50% 則涉及其他領域，這一點大家應該都能看到，懂嗎？

Now, in terms of the other thing that's going on in foundry is the trailing edge is very strong, and that is the China phenomenon, but it's also the content in phone, when you are talking about all the cameras and sensors and things like that. So I think foundry is in pretty good shape next year and I think it has got probably more sustainability overall than people said a few years ago. In terms of other companies at the leading edge, I think others will want to compete, because it's a big market, and they want to be at the leading edge, and the timing and magnitude of the spending on that we haven't disclosed.

現在，就晶圓代工領域而言，後發優勢非常強勁，這不僅體現在中國市場，也體現在手機內部組件的研發上，例如相機、感測器等等。所以我認為晶圓代工明年的發展前景相當不錯，而且我認為它的整體可持續性可能比幾年前人們預期的要好。至於其他領先企業，我認為它們會想要參與競爭，因為這是一個巨大的市場，它們都想保持領先地位，至於它們在這方面的投資時間和規模，我們目前還沒有透露。

Sidney Ho, Deutsche Bank.

西德尼·何，德意志銀行。

Congratulations on very strong orders. You have two consecutive quarters in China, over $800 million of orders. I understand that some of that comes from display.

恭喜你們訂單強勁！你們在中國市場連續兩季訂單額超過8億美元。據我了解，其中一部分來自展示產品。

I think, Bob, you mentioned display was half of the orders this quarter from China. So if you back that out, do you feel that the $400 million to $500 million per quarter of order run rate is the base case now, and it starts moving up from here, or do you think there is still some lumpiness in orders in China? Have you seen much order activity from local foundries or are they mostly still coming from multi-nationals at this point?

鮑勃，我想你剛才提到，本季來自中國的訂單中有一半是顯示器件訂單。那麼，如果剔除顯示器件訂單，你認為目前每季4億至5億美元的訂單量是基本水平，並且會在此基礎上繼續增長嗎？還是你認為中國市場的訂單量仍有波動？你是否看到很多來自本地代工廠的訂單，還是目前訂單主要仍然來自跨國公司？

Sure, well, again, we have a strong semi business in China, and a strong display business. So I'll do display first. We see the trends where the Chinese are heavily invested in the display business, and want to have share there, probably continuing for a number of years. They are not heavily into OLED, yet, but their interest in display is very strong.

當然，我們在中國擁有強大的半導體業務和顯示器業務。所以我先談談顯示器業務。我們看到，中國企業正在大力投資顯示器業務，並希望佔據市場份額，這種情況可能會持續數年。他們目前對OLED的投入還不多，但他們對顯示器的興趣非常濃厚。

In terms of semi, the government has obviously said their interest is very strong and sustainable. So I think that you may have lumpiness, but I think you've raised the baseline, particularly in semi, and the display baseline has already been going up for a while now. So I think that you're going to see pretty sustainably strong orders in China.

就半導體產業而言，政府顯然已經表明了他們非常濃厚的興趣，而且這種興趣是可持續的。所以我認為，雖然可能會出現一些波動，但我認為你們已經提高了基準線，尤其是在半導體領域，而顯示器行業的基準線也已經上升了一段時間了。因此，我認為中國市場的訂單將會持續保持強勁勢頭。

Yes, let me add on this one, we're in a very strong position with both multi-national and domestic companies. Relative to share, China is one of the strongest regions for Applied Materials.

是的，我還要補充一點，我們在跨國公司和本土公司方面都處於非常有利的地位。就市場佔有率而言，中國是應用材料公司最強勁的市場之一。

Relative to the investment, you hear the word strategic, when you think about China. There's a focus on growing the percentage of domestic content, and building a secure supply chain. And as Bob said, there has been announcements around huge investments over the next decade in China.

談到投資，尤其是對中國的投資，人們往往會想到「戰略性」這個詞。重點在於提高國產化率，並建構安全的供應鏈。正如鮑伯所說，未來十年，中國將迎來一系列巨額投資。

So, again, we're in a very strong position. We think this is a multi-year wave. Certainly, we see strong growth in 2016, but we think it's a great growth opportunity also, going forward.

所以，再次強調，我們目前處於非常有利的地位。我們認為這將是一波持續多年的成長浪潮。當然，我們預計2016年將實現強勁成長，但我們也認為未來將迎來巨大的成長機會。

Craig Ellis, B. Riley.

克雷格·艾利斯，B·萊利。

Yes, congratulations on the results and outlook, and thanks for sneaking me in. I wanted to switch from a more model intensive question, maybe to a more qualitative question. Bob, it was helpful to get a lot of longer term context on the financial performance of the business. And the question, as we look at the ability of the Company to redirect to some new opportunities like OLEDs, relative to the longer-term history of the Company, where do you think the product development engine is, and how much further upside do you have, as we look ahead for SAM expansive type of products, that would be on the road map? Thank you.

是的，恭喜你們所取得的成果和展望，也感謝你們讓我有機會參與討論。我想從一個更側重模型分析的問題，轉而提出一個更偏定性的問題。鮑勃，你們提供的關於公司財務表現的長期背景資訊非常有幫助。接下來我想問的是，考慮到公司能否轉型到OLED等新領域，相對於公司更長遠的發展歷程，您認為目前的產品研發引擎處於什麼位置？展望未來，對於路線圖上規劃的SAM類擴展型產品，你們還有多少成長空間？謝謝。

That's a really good question. Let me just spend a couple of minutes on it, if you don't mind. If you go look at it, our guide for Q3 was frankly significantly north of the street. I think we guided to $0.48, and the Street at three months ago was at $0.36.

這確實是個好問題。如果您不介意的話，我想花幾分鐘時間解答一下。如果您去看一下，我們第三季的指導價實際上遠高於華爾街的預期。我記得我們當時的指導價是 0.48 美元，而三個月前華爾街的預期是 0.36 美元。

Now we're guiding to $0.65, roughly, and the Street was at $0.48. And now, we're saying we're going to -- we have $3.5 billion, almost $3.5 billion of orders last quarter, almost $3.7 billion this quarter. Next two quarters, we're hoping to have around $3 billion each. So there is something's changed here.

現在我們預期每股盈餘在0.65美元左右，而華爾街先前預期為0.48美元。此外，我們預計上季訂單金額將達到35億美元，本季將達到37億美元。未來兩個季度，我們希望每季都能達到30億美元左右。所以情況已經有所改變。

So the question you're really asking is, what has changed disruptively, either in the market or at Applied Materials? I think there is really three answers.

所以你真正想問的問題是，市場或應用材料公司內部發生了哪些顛覆性的改變？我認為答案主要有三個。

One, I think the market has changed, and it really has, in terms of what type of equipment people need to make leading edge devices and leading edge displays. For instance, in 2012, 53.5% of the CapEx WFE spending by semi customers was in places where we competed. Now, this year, we think it's 63.5%. And in those markets, where we compete in semi, we're gaining in share, where we had weaker share.

首先，我認為市場已經發生了變化，而且變化非常顯著，尤其是在製造尖端設備和尖端顯示器所需的設備類型方面。例如，2012年，半導體客戶在WFE（晶圓級前端）的資本支出中，有53.5%來自我們參與競爭的市場。而今年，我們認為這一比例將達到63.5%。在這些我們參與半導體競爭的市場中，我們的市佔率正在成長，而先前我們的市佔率相對較弱。

So in the market changes, to make leading edge devices, they need to buy different sets of leading edge equipment, and frankly, they need it from very strong, big capable suppliers, because the problems are just getting harder. They're putting things into production earlier than ever before and ramping faster.

因此，在市場變化的情況下，為了製造尖端設備，他們需要購買不同的尖端設備，坦白說，他們需要從實力雄厚、規模龐大的供應商那裡獲得這些設備，因為問題變得越來越棘手。他們比以往任何時候都更早地將產品投入生產，產能提升速度也更快。

In display, you see the same thing. Making an OLED display is harder than making an LCD display. So having the right products, we're introducing new products.

在顯示領域，情況也是如此。製造OLED顯示器比製造LCD顯示器困難得多。因此，為了擁有合適的產品，我們正在推出新產品。

So in the marketplace, there is big inflections, V-NAND devices, totally different architecture. So big inflections, number one, in the market. But number two, the products are very well-positioned now for us. So I can see this going on for a while.

所以，市場出現了巨大的轉折點，V-NAND 裝置採用了完全不同的架構。這是第一點，市場確實發生了巨大的轉變。但第二點，我們的產品目前定位非常有利。因此，我認為這種趨勢會持續一段時間。

Now the third thing is, well, how are you doing it at Applied? I honestly believe that we will outgrow by several points the markets in which we are competing. You might be saying, well, how can you possibly know that? For several reasons.

第三點是，Applied公司做得怎麼樣？我真心相信，我們的成長速度將會比我們所處的市場高出好幾個百分點。你可能會問，你怎麼能確定這一點呢？原因有很多。

One, we've redefined the financial model here, right? The spending we put into products is significantly more than we used to, relative to our total spending. So we invest more than we used to in products, versus just maintain the lights in the building, and operating the place. So the investment relatively speaking, is heavier in product development, and that batting average on new products is going up.

首先，我們重新定義了財務模式，對吧？我們投入產品的支出比以往大幅增加，佔總支出的比例也更高。也就是說，我們現在更多地投資於產品，而不是僅僅用於維持日常營運和維護大樓的照明設施。因此，相對而言，我們在產品研發方面的投入更大，而且新產品的成功率也不斷提高。

We have put 50% more technical guys in the field, I think, we've invested in R&D. And the products we're coming out with are not just iterative products, they're disruptive innovative products. And if you go look at leading edge logic and foundry customers, the number of [D2R] positions we have, the number of new platforms we have. We've changed the model, the investment model and the batting average on the new products.

我認為，我們增加了50%的現場技術人員，並且增加了研發投入。我們推出的產品不再是迭代產品，而是顛覆性創新產品。如果你去看看我們領先的邏輯晶片和代工廠客戶，就會發現我們擁有的[D2R]職位數量，以及我們推出的新平台數量。我們改變了商業模式、投資模式以及新產品的成功率。

And the other reason I'm pretty confident, I can see the products coming down the pipe. So I think that Applied is going to outgrow the markets that we compete in for the next several years. Now, 5, 10 years from now I can't see. But in the next number of years, I feel good about where we're investing, how we're executing, and the market opportunities.

我信心十足的另一個原因是，我能看到即將推出的產品。所以我認為，在未來幾年裡，應用材料公司將會超越我們目前所處的市場。當然，5年、10年後的情況我無法預測。但就未來幾年而言，我對我們的投資方向、執行方式以及市場機會都充滿信心。

Let me add to this one. The fundamental driver for our businesses today, from a market standpoint, is materials innovation. So if you look at 3D NAND, it is materials-enabled scaling. If you look at how people are trying to solve edge placement errors in litho, there is a lot of materials innovation that can dramatically reduce edge placement errors, and that's a big deal for our customers going forward in multi-patterning.

我再補充一點。從市場角度來看，我們業務的根本驅動力在於材料創新。以3D NAND為例，其核心在於材料賦能的規模化。再看看人們如何解決光刻製程中的邊緣放置誤差問題，就會發現許多材料創新能夠顯著降低邊緣放置誤差，這對我們客戶未來的多重曝光過程至關重要。

So that is the core competency of Applied Materials. We're broader, deeper, have more competencies, more technology, more talent than anyone in the world. And relative to semi, you see today, we're in the early adoption of some great innovative products, not incremental products, innovative products, and the pipeline we have there is also tremendous. We have great products in the pipeline.

這就是應用材料的核心競爭力。我們的業務範圍更廣、深度更深，擁有比世界上任何其他公司都更強大的能力、更先進的技術和更優秀的人才。就半導體領域而言，正如您所看到的，我們目前正處於一些極具創新性產品的早期應用階段，這些產品並非漸進式改進，而是真正的創新產品，而且我們在該領域的研發管線也非常龐大。我們有許多優秀的產品正在研發中。

If you look at display, Applied is unique in our ability to take these technologies into large areas, and into new markets, and we've also innovated with new TAM growth. Thin film encapsulation is an example, where we have hundreds of millions of dollars in business enabling the transition to organic LED and mobile. And we have other capabilities that are also in the pipeline, that are as significant relative to growth drivers for us longer term, outside the semiconductor industry.

以顯示技術為例，應用材料的獨特之處在於我們能夠將這些技術推廣到更廣泛的領域和新的市場，我們也透過創新拓展了新的市場規模。薄膜封裝就是一個例子，我們在該領域擁有數億美元的業務，協助向有機發光二極體（OLED）和行動裝置的轉型。此外，我們還有其他正在研發中的技術，這些技術對我們長期發展而言同樣至關重要，即使在半導體產業之外也是如此。

So this is personally what I love about Applied. This is where I love to spend my time. The Company has so much talent, so much capability, I really believe that we're still in the early innings, relative to innovation in semi, in materials-enabled scaling, with disruptive new platforms, and also outside the semiconductor business, into adjacent markets.

這就是我個人熱愛應用材料的原因。我樂於在這裡工作。公司人才濟濟，實力雄厚。我堅信，在半導體創新、材料賦能的規模化生產、顛覆性新平台，以及半導體業務以外的鄰近市場，我們都還處於起步階段。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝你，克雷格。

Amit Daryanani, RBC Capital Markets.

Amit Daryanani，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Congrats on a great quarter, guys. I guess, my question is around the gross margin trajectory, as you guys see it from here for the next few quarters. It seems like a lot of the growth drivers you've talked about on display are in CVD and etch. It seems like they might be somewhat headwinds to your gross margin expansion. So could you maybe just talk about what are the offsets or the levers you might have to negate the mix headwinds, and enable margin expansion as you go forward from here, over the next few quarters?

恭喜各位，本季業績斐然！我想問的是，你們對未來幾季的毛利率走勢有何看法？你們提到的許多成長動力似乎都集中在CVD和蝕刻製程。這些工藝似乎可能會對毛利率的提升構成一定的阻力。所以，能否請你們談談有哪些應對措施或策略可以抵銷這些不利因素，從而在未來幾季實現毛利率的持續成長？

Sure, there's several things. One is the cost reduction, which is the best we've done in years. The second one is, we just hammer away at every single product to get better, and offset the mix that might be a little harder.

當然，有好幾個面向。首先是成本降低，這是我們多年來做得最好的一次。其次，我們一直在努力改進每一款產品，以彌補產品組合可能存在的不足。

And then the third one is continuing to introduce disruptive products. For instance, we think we're going to grow our inspection business in terms of market share this year and probably next year, and we have new products coming out, and those products tend to be strong gross margins. So we do have -- we have mix that's pushing back at us a little bit, but we have other things that could counter that.

第三點是繼續推出顛覆性產品。例如，我們認為今年乃至明年，我們的檢測業務市場份額將會成長，而且我們即將推出新產品，這些產品的毛利率通常都很高。所以，我們目前確實面臨一些挑戰，但我們也有其他方法可以應付。

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

I have a very short question for Gary. You talked about this display CapEx, flattish next year. In that context, I see the growth for AMAT coming from share gain, especially encapsulation. When do you think we're going to learn more about this? Is this something that you're going to discuss at Analyst Day? Or are we going to learn more as those share gains materialize?

我有一個很簡短的問題想問Gary。您提到明年顯示器資本支出將保持穩定。在這種情況下，我認為AMAT的成長將來自市場佔有率的提升，尤其是封裝業務。您認為我們什麼時候能了解更多相關資訊？您會在分析師日上討論這個問題嗎？還是說，我們會隨著市佔率的提升而了解更多？

Thanks for the question, Mehdi. Yes, we will definitely talk more about display at the Analyst meeting, and really also focus on some of these longer term opportunities, where some very large technology companies are making huge investments, and where we have great opportunities in display going forward. So we definitely will cover that in more detail at the Analyst Day.

謝謝你的提問，Mehdi。是的，我們肯定會在分析師會議上更詳細地討論顯示技術，並專注於一些長期機遇，例如一些大型科技公司正在進行的大規模投資，以及顯示技術未來發展的巨大潛力。所以我們一定會在分析師日上更詳細地介紹這些內容。

Thanks, Mehdi.

謝謝你，邁赫迪。

Jagadish Iyer, Summit Redstone.

賈加迪什·艾耶，峰會紅石。

Thanks for taking my questions. So if I look -- if I look at your display revenues growing about well over 50% year-over-year in calendar 2016 versus calendar 2015, what percentage has come from OLED, and how should we think about it as we look at calendar 2017?

感謝您回答我的問題。如果我看一下－如果我看一下貴公司2016年顯示器營收與2015年相比年增超過50%，那麼OLED佔比是多少？展望2017年，我們該如何看待這個問題？

Sure, the revenue growth has been obviously very strong, and with the bookings we have, we believe we have momentum into 2017 on the revenue line. If you look at the bookings this year in display, they have been probably about two-thirds or more, around OLED, and about one-third, roughly, around LCD stuff. So then if you look at the revenue split, it's probably about 30%, 40% LCD, and about 60% OLED this year. So last year was probably closer to two-thirds LCD, I think, and one-third, or not too big OLED.

當然，營收成長動能非常強勁，而且根據我們目前的訂單量，我們相信2017年的營收成長動能依然強勁。今年顯示器訂單量方面，OLED產品佔比可能達到三分之二甚至更多，LCD產品佔約三分之一。因此，從營收組成來看，今年LCD產品佔比可能在30%到40%之間，OLED產品佔比約60%。相較之下，去年LCD產品佔比可能接近三分之二，OLED產品佔比則不太高。

And here it is. Yes, it's probably 70% last year was LCD. So it's flipped. It was 70/30 one way last year, and this year, it is probably 60/40 roughly, 65.

就是這樣。沒錯，去年液晶電視的比例可能達到了70%。所以今年正好相反。去年是70/30，今年大概是60/40，或是65%。

Jerome Ramel, Exane BNP.

Jerome Ramel，Exane BNP。

What kind of capacity are you modeling for 10 nanometer node and 7 nanometer node in foundry going forward? Total installed capacity with [start amounts]?

你們對未來晶圓代工中 10 奈米和 7 奈米製程節點的產能規劃是怎樣的？總裝置產能（含初始產能）是多少？

Yes, so capital intensity at 10 nanometer is up over 25% from 16/14. And at 7, we think it's up again, but we haven't said a specific number yet.

是的，10奈米製程的資本密集度比16/14奈米製程提高了25%以上。我們認為7奈米製程的資本密集度也在上升，但我們還沒有給出具體數字。

Yes, Bob is referring to our TAM opportunity, and I think the combination 10/7, something like 30%. Somewhere in that range.

是的，鮑伯指的是我們的TAM機會，我認為10/7的組合大概是30%左右。就在這個範圍內。

I think it's actually more than 30%.

我認為實際比例超過 30%。

Yes.

是的。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari，高盛集團。

This is Charles on for Toshiya, and congrats on a great quarter. Given that you guys seem to be firing on all cylinders, what are maybe couple of idiosyncratic risks that we should be monitoring?

我是Charles，代表Toshiya，恭喜你們本季表現出色。鑑於你們目前一切運作良好，我們是否應該關註一些特殊風險？

Well, that's a good question. Let's think.

嗯，這是個好問題。我們來思考一下。

I think the, I think for us, we have tremendous opportunities. The key for us, I really do believe we can grow as fast as we can qualify. We have great platforms. We're totally targeted on major inflections, very, very innovative products, where we have tremendous customer pull.

我認為，對我們來說，我們擁有巨大的機會。關鍵在於，我堅信我們能夠以最快的速度發展，只要我們具備相應的能力。我們擁有優秀的平台。我們完全專注於重大轉折點，開發極具創新性的產品，這些產品具有巨大的客戶吸引力。

So I think the tension for us really is to make sure that we can qualify with customers, work with customers, because there's just incredible pull for us, in a number of different areas. So I would say that we, for sure, are going to grow share. The rate of that growth is really up to us, relative -- from an execution perspective.

所以我認為我們面臨的真正挑戰在於如何確保我們能夠贏得客戶的信任，並與客戶合作，因為我們在許多領域都有巨大的市場需求。因此，我可以肯定地說，我們的市佔率一定會成長。至於成長速度，則取決於我們自身的執行力。

Yes, maybe I'll pile on a little bit. You always have, it's not idiosyncratic, the macro risk, which I think is moderate, but that's a risk. I think the other one, to add to what Gary said, there has really been a change in my opinion at Applied, that we didn't have as much growth stuff being considered a few years ago. So we have really built a funnel of great ideas with customers. Customers are pulling for us big time now.

是的，我可能要補充一點。宏觀風險一直存在，這並非例，我認為風險程度適中，但它確實存在。另外，我想補充一下Gary的觀點，Applied公司內部確實發生了一些變化。幾年前，我們並沒有過多考慮成長方面的事情。但現在，我們已經與客戶建立了一個匯集優秀創意的管道。客戶現在非常支持我們。

So our issue is, how do we optimize all of the opportunities? So it's like, how good can we be? And that's a tension we have every single day, which projects do we follow up?

所以我們面臨的問題是，如何最大化利用所有機會？也就是說，我們能做到多好？這也是我們每天都要面對的難題：我們該跟進哪些項目？

Which ones we push faster. Which ones -- So it becomes, how many different things we realize, how fast. So it's optimizing the portfolio, really.

哪些項目我們應該優先推進？哪些項目——所以關鍵在於我們實現了多少不同的目標，速度有多快。所以，這其實是在優化投資組合。

Thanks, Charles. And Sean, we've got time for maybe two more questions, please?

謝謝，查爾斯。肖恩，我們還有時間再問兩個問題嗎？

Tim Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

提姆·阿庫裡，考恩公司。

Gary, I'm just, looking at these numbers, and I'm sitting here listening to you, talk about all the market share gains. I guess, I just wanted to give you a chance to talk about how this has happened? Because was some of this in the pipeline before the Tokyo Electron merger, or did the merger fall apart, and you just completely decided to totally reposition the Company? I guess, just give us a sense of sort of the genesis of this success to maybe help people deconstruct how this might look going forward? Thank you.

蓋瑞，我看著這些數據，聽你講市場佔有率的成長，心裡想著，這一切是怎麼發生的？因為這些成長在東京電子合併之前就已經在醞釀了嗎？還是說合併失敗了，你才決定徹底重塑公司？我想，你能不能跟我們講講這項成功是如何開始的，這樣或許能幫助大家更理解未來的發展方向？謝謝。

Thanks for the question. So we focus on big inflections, and I think Bob talked about this earlier. We could see the big inflections a few years in advance.

謝謝你的提問。我們主要關注重大轉折點，我想鮑勃之前也談過這一點。我們可以提前幾年預見這些重大轉折點。

And we made a decision that we would shift hundreds of millions of dollars in spending in the Company. So, we cut G&A a significant amount. We significantly, dramatically reduced our spending in solar.

我們決定調整公司數億美元的支出方向。因此，我們大幅削減了管理費用，並大幅削減了太陽能領域的支出。

And all of those -- all of that money we shifted, keeping OpEx relatively flat, into areas where we have great opportunities. Applied has great talent, and great competencies, and great technologies, but we needed to make the investments and fuel the growth. So, that happened, frankly maybe three or four years ago, where we started that shifting of resources, and really focussed in the areas where we knew that we had great opportunities. We also have added talent into the Company to help us execute on those opportunities, and that's really the playbook. And we're still driving that playbook today.

我們把所有這些資金——在維持營運支出相對穩定的情況下，全部轉移到了我們擁有巨大發展機會的領域。 Applied擁有優秀的人才、卓越的能力和先進的技術，但我們需要進行投資，推動成長。坦白說，大概三、四年前，我們就開始進行資源轉移，真正專注於那些我們認為擁有巨大發展機會的領域。我們也為公司引進了人才，以幫助我們掌握這些機遇，這就是我們的策略。時至今日，我們依然在貫徹這項戰略。

So I look at the semiconductor business in the pipeline, we have some phenomenally valuable and disruptive products still in the pipeline where we have great opportunities going forward. And also outside semi, we have some great, great opportunities that are sizeable opportunities, where we can still drive growth for the Company. So those are the things we did.

所以，我檢視了半導體業務的在研項目，我們有一些極具價值且顛覆性的產品正在研發中，未來發展前景看好。此外，在半導體業務之外，我們也有一些規模可觀的絕佳機會，可以繼續推動公司成長。以上就是我們所做的工作。

It wasn't something that -- frankly, with the Tokyo Electron merger, we kept our eye on the ball. We were laser-focused on these opportunities all through that process, and we were ready basically, when these inflections were ramping, with the right products and the right team to execute. I don't know, Bob, if you want to add anything?

坦白說，在東京電子合併的過程中，我們並沒有把全部精力都放在其他事情上。我們始終密切關注著這些機遇，並且基本上已經做好了準備，在這些轉折點到來時，我們擁有合適的產品和合適的團隊來執行。鮑勃，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think that's true. I think you have two-part question there, Tim. One is, how come this stuff is so apparent now? And, two, did Tokyo Electron have any impact, or the end of the merger have an impact?

我認為你說得對。提姆，我覺得你這個問題包含兩個部分。第一，為什麼這些事情現在變得如此顯而易見？第二，東京電子事件是否產生了影響？或者說，合併的結束是否產生了影響？

I think the answer to the first question is, if you're going to gain share in an equipment business like ours, whether it's semi or display, the opportunity is on inflections, big changes on how they make chips, or they make displays. And you've got to have the right product at that inflection or change or node or new OLED device. So you can look at stuff, we even did in the public domain.

我認為第一個問題的答案是，如果你想在像我們這樣的設備行業（無論是半導體還是顯示器）獲得市場份額，機會在於技術轉折點，在於晶片製造或顯示器製造方式的重大變革。你必須在那個轉折點、變革節點或新型OLED裝置出現時，擁有合適的產品。你可以看看我們公開的一些成果。

There are a number of people who said that, we should be less aggressive investing in display and solar. Now we decided they were two very different business models, and so we increased our investment in display, because we saw the inflection. But you got to wait the two or three years for the inflection, or the product won't be ready. You can't shoot behind the duck, right? The duck has got to be two years ahead of you, three years ahead of you.

很多人說我們應該減少在顯示器和太陽能領域的投資。但我們認為這兩種商業模式截然不同，所以我們增加了對顯示器的投資，因為我們看到了市場轉折點。不過，拐點出現需要兩三年時間，否則產品就無法成熟。你不能在鴨子後面射擊，對吧？鴨子必須比你領先兩到三年。

And then, second one we saw coming was NAND. And in fact, maybe even at your conference in 2014, I thought V-NAND at the end of the calendar was going to be a little bigger than it ended being, because we saw the inflection. So we were betting on it, even if you go back to your conference in 214, early 2014, we had the product that was doing pretty well.

其次，我們預見的第二個技術是NAND快閃記憶體。事實上，甚至在2014年你們的會議上，我就認為V-NAND閃存在年底的市場規模會比最終呈現的更大，因為我們看到了它的拐點。所以我們當時押注於此，即使你回顧一下2014年初的會議，我們當時的產品表現也相當不錯。

So now what you have is these inflections, products take two or three years to come along. The hard part, frankly, was bridging this period. And now what's going to happen is, the products are in the pipeline, and the inflections are happening, and we have more products in the pipeline for more inflections, if you go look at areas like inspection and things like that.

所以現在的情況是，產品需要兩到三年才能問世，這段期間會出現一些轉捩點。坦白說，最困難的部分在於如何過渡到下一個階段。而現在，產品已經進入研發流程，轉折點也正在發生，而且我們還有更多產品正在研發中，以應對未來的更多轉折點，如果你去看看像檢測等領域就知道了。

So the momentum is building up. We had to get through two or three. In terms of Tokyo Electron, Gary forced everybody to stay focused on the business.

所以勢頭正在增強。我們必須挺過兩三個難關。就東京電子而言，加里迫使所有人專注於業務本身。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝你，提姆。

Atif Malik, Citigroup.

阿提夫·馬利克，花旗集團。

I have a question for Gary. Gary, given your background in process diagnostics and control, what is Applied's strategy moving forward, in terms of integrating the eBeam success you're having, as well as other products with etch and the process reactors. We've seen Hermes and ASML getting together, KLA and Lam are still trying to get together. I wonder if you could talk on, how much closed loop control and integrated metrology can you benefit from in your process and etch reactors?

我有個問題想問Gary。 Gary，鑑於您在製程診斷和控制方面的背景，Applied公司未來的策略是什麼？如何將您在電子束蝕刻方面取得的成功，以及其他蝕刻和製程反應器產品整合起來？我們看到Hermes和ASML正在合併，KLA和Lam仍在努力合併。我想請您談談，在您的製程和蝕刻反應器中，閉環控制和整合計量技術能帶來多大的益處？

Yes, let me talk a little bit about the inspection business. So this is going to be a very strong year for us, in that business. We could have a record year, our FY16 revenue in this business, and very, very strong pull from customers.

是的，讓我簡單談談我們的檢驗業務。今年對我們來說將是檢驗業務非常強勁的一年。我們預計將創下2016財年該業務收入的新紀錄，且客戶需求非常強勁。

As you said, I have a lot of history relative to this business, and what I would say is that eBeam, what I hear from customers is that eBeam is really at an inflection point. If you look at the changes in the devices, the device structures, there is a bigger problem with systematic types of problems, where eBeam is the best solution. So we see tremendous pull from customers, really an inflection, relative to eBeam technology, especially focussed on these systematic defects. So that is what we're seeing from a market perspective.

正如您所說，我在這個行業中有著豐富的經驗。我想說的是，我從客戶那裡了解到，eBeam 正處於一個轉捩點。如果您觀察設備及其結構的變化，您會發現系統性問題日益突出，而 eBeam 正是解決這些問題的最佳方案。因此，我們看到客戶對 eBeam 技術的需求非常旺盛，這確實是一個轉捩點，尤其是在解決這些系統性缺陷方面。這就是我們從市場角度觀察到的情況。

Applied Materials, over half of our revenue is eBeam. We have the strongest technology in the market in eBeam. We are the leader in eBeam review. We're gaining share in CD SAM, and we've just launched this PROVision product and I think there is just tremendous, tremendous opportunity with PROVision.

應用材料公司超過一半的收入來自電子束。我們在電子束領域擁有市場上最強大的技術。我們是電子束審查領域的領導者。我們在CD SAM領域的市場佔有率正在不斷擴大，而且我們剛剛推出了PROVision產品，我認為PROVision蘊藏著巨大的發展機會。

In the first year of launching the product, we're already getting reorders from leading foundry and memory customers, and I believe what we talked about before was achieving 20% share in eBeam inspection in the first year. So we see tremendous growth opportunities in eBeam, in an area where Applied is the strongest, relative to technology. So overall, in PDC, we have great technology, very strong customer pull, and a great opportunity to drive growth.

產品上市第一年，我們就已經收到了來自領先的晶圓代工廠和記憶體客戶的複購訂單。我相信我們之前也討論過，第一年就能在電子束檢測領域佔據20%的市場。因此，我們看到了電子束檢測領域巨大的成長潛力，而應用材料公司在這個技術領域擁有最強的技術優勢。總而言之，在PDC（光電元件製造）領域，我們擁有卓越的技術、強大的客戶需求以及巨大的成長潛力。

Well, thank you, Atif for your question, and we'd like to thank everyone for joining us this afternoon. We do hope to see you at the Analyst Day in New York on September 21. And in the meantime, thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

感謝Atif的提問，也感謝各位今天下午蒞臨本次活動。我們誠摯地邀請您參加9月21日在紐約舉行的分析師日活動。同時，感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

And this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您可以斷開連線了。