應用材料 (AMAT) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用材料公司財報電話會議。（操作說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

再次提醒，本次會議正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁邁克爾·沙利文先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you. In a moment, we'll discuss the results for our second quarter which ended on May 1. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO, and Bob Halliday, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。稍後，我們將討論截至 5 月 1 日的第二季業績。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson 和財務長 Bob Halliday。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including Applied's current view of its industries, performance, products, share positions, profitability and business outlook. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements, and are not guarantees of future performance. Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q and 8-K filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections and assumptions as of May 19, 2016, and Applied assumes no obligation to update them.

在開始之前，請允許我提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括應用材料公司目前對其所在行業、業績、產品、市場份額、盈利能力和業務前景的看法。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此類聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異，並且不構成對未來績效的保證。有關這些風險和不確定性的資訊包含在 Applied 向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格文件中。所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理階層截至 2016 年 5 月 19 日的估計、預測和假設，Applied 公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release, and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the Investors page of our website at AppliedMaterials.com.

今天的電話會議還包括非GAAP調整後的財務指標。與 GAAP 指標的調節表包含在今天的獲利新聞稿中，以及我們的調節表幻燈片中，這些幻燈片可在我們網站 AppliedMaterials.com 的投資者頁面上找到。

Next I'd like to share a calendar announcement. Applied Materials plans to hold its 2016 Analyst Meeting in New York City on Wednesday, September 21. Those of you joining us in New York will have the option to attend technology sessions with our general managers. The main event will be webcast live. And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

接下來我想分享一則日程安排通知。應用材料公司計劃於 9 月 21 日星期三在紐約市舉行 2016 年分析師會議。到紐約參加會議的各位可以選擇參加由我們總經理主持的技術研討會。主賽事將進行網路直播。現在，我想把電話交給加里·迪克森。

Thanks, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm very pleased to report that we are making great progress with all the major elements of our strategy, and expect to deliver record earnings in fiscal 2016. We are focusing our investments on key customer inflections that are growing Applied Materials today, and creating exciting opportunities for future growth.

謝謝你，麥克，大家下午好。我很高興地報告，我們在策略的各個主要方面都取得了巨大進展，預計在 2016 財年將實現創紀錄的收益。我們將投資重點放在推動應用材料公司當前發展的關鍵客戶轉折點上，這些轉折點也為未來的成長創造了令人興奮的機會。

Our record performance is made possible by the outstanding team we have at Applied. I want to thank our employees around the world for their tremendous passion to create value for our customers and shareholders.

Applied公司取得如此優異的成績，離不開我們優秀的團隊。我要感謝世界各地的員工，感謝他們為顧客和股東創造價值所展現的巨大熱情。

I'll begin today's call by summarizing our strong results and outlook in the context of our longer-term strategy for sustainable, profitable growth. Then I'll outline our updated view on the market environment and what this means for us. I'll conclude with a short summary of progress in each of our major businesses. After that, Bob will provide additional details about our results, and the improvements we're making to the Company's operating performance.

今天，我將首先總結我們強勁的業績和前景，並結合我們實現可持續盈利增長的長期策略進行闡述。然後我將概述我們對市場環境的最新看法以及這對我們意味著什麼。最後，我將簡要總結我們各項主要業務的進展。之後，鮑伯將提供有關我們業績的更多細節，以及我們正在對公司營運業績進行的改進。

At Applied Materials, our strategy is to develop highly differentiated materials engineering, products and services that make technology inflections possible. In semiconductor and display, the substantial changes in device technology that are taking place require significant materials innovation. I believe this puts Applied in a unique position.

應用材料公司的策略是開發高度差異化的材料工程、產品和服務，使技術變革成為可能。在半導體和顯示領域，裝置技術的重大變革需要材料方面的重大創新。我認為這使應用材料公司處於獨特的地位。

We have the broadest and deepest capabilities in materials engineering, and our technology is unmatched. These advantages are helping us deliver the innovations that enable our customers' success and move the industry forward.

我們在材料工程領域擁有最廣泛、最深入的能力，我們的技術無與倫比。這些優勢有助於我們提供創新產品，從而幫助客戶取得成功並推動產業發展。

In recent years, we shifted $400 million of annual spending to improve our organizational capabilities, and accelerate product development. Today these investments are creating significant value for our customers and for Applied.

近年來，我們每年將 4 億美元的支出轉移到提高組織能力和加速產品開發。如今，這些投資正在為我們的客戶和應用科技公司創造巨大的價值。

When I look at our results and outlook, there are five key drivers of our performance I'd like to highlight. First, in semiconductor, our leadership businesses are delivering key enabling technology for logic and foundry customers. These businesses have high market share and highly differentiated products, and are benefiting from robust levels of foundry investment in the second half of the year.

當我審視我們的績效和前景時，我想專注於五個關鍵的績效驅動因素。首先，在半導體領域，我們的領先業務正在為邏輯和代工客戶提供關鍵的使能技術。這些企業擁有較高的市場佔有率和高度差異化的產品，並受益於下半年代工廠的強勁投資。

Second, our growth businesses are making significant market share gains, as the 3D NAND ramp accelerates. Our combined etch and CVD revenues for Q2 are at a nine-year high.

其次，隨著 3D NAND 產能爬坡加速，我們的成長型業務正在取得顯著的市佔率成長。第二季度，我們的蝕刻和 CVD 業務總收入達到九年來的最高水準。

Third, we are very well-positioned in China. Domestic Chinese manufacturers are ramping up their investments, and multi-national customers are expanding their footprint in the region. As a result, we are setting new records for quarterly semiconductor orders in China.

第三，我們在中國擁有非常有利的地位。中國國內製造商正在加大投資，跨國客戶也正在擴大在該地區的商業版圖。因此，我們在中國季度半導體訂單量創下新紀錄。

The fourth driver is our sustained growth in service, where we are building upon 10 consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth.

第四個驅動因素是我們在服務方面的持續成長，我們已連續 10 個季度實現年比成​​長。

And fifth, we are successfully applying our advanced materials engineering capabilities beyond semiconductor, specifically in display. New display technologies such as OLED are enabled by materials innovation. This is creating significant new market opportunities for Applied.

第五，我們正在成功地將我們先進的材料工程能力應用於半導體以外的領域，特別是顯示器領域。OLED等新型顯示技術的出現得益於材料創新。這為應用材料公司創造了重要的全新市場機會。

I'll now give you our latest views on the market environment. While we are paying close attention to the global economy, at Applied we continue to see strong demand for our products and services. This is because our semiconductor and display customers are focused on developing and ramping new technologies, rather than simply building capacity.

接下來，我將向大家介紹我們對市場環境的最新看法。儘管我們密切關注全球經濟情勢，但Applied公司仍然看到市場對我們的產品和服務有著強勁的需求。這是因為我們的半導體和顯示器客戶專注於開發和擴大新技術規模，而不是僅僅建立產能。

The inflection-driven investments our customers are making are highly strategic. They are battling for leadership, and investing to ensure that they're ready as market demand shifts to these new technologies.

我們的客戶進行的由市場轉折點驅動的投資具有高度策略性。他們正在爭奪領導地位，並進行投資以確保在市場需求轉向這些新技術時做好準備。

In foundry, we expect investment levels for the year to be similar to 2015. We anticipate more than half of 2016 spending will be focused on the 10 nanometer node, as well as 7 nanometer pilot production. In addition, as new projects ramp in China, we see the foundry customer mix broadening, and increasing investment in trailing geometries. This is positive for Applied, because we have a 30 year history of leadership in China, and we've built very strong customer relationships, and a great regional team there. This quarter, our revenues in China are at an all-time high.

在鑄造業，我們預計今年的投資水準將與 2015 年類似。我們預計 2016 年超過一半的支出將集中在 10 奈米節點以及 7 奈米試點生產。此外，隨著中國新專案的增加，我們看到代工廠的客戶群正在擴大，對尾部幾何形狀的投資也在增加。這對應用材料公司來說是件好事，因為我們在中國擁有 30 年的領先地位，建立了非常牢固的客戶關係，並且在那裡擁有一支優秀的區域團隊。本季度，我們在中國的營收創歷史新高。

In memory, we expect overall spending to be more or less flat year-on-year, however, there are important changes in the mix that play well for Applied. Investment is shifting from DRAM to NAND, and we see DRAM down at least 25%, following very high investment levels in 2015. In contrast, we see NAND strengthening as the year progresses. Our latest (technical difficulty) will be 35% higher than 2015, as multiple customers accelerate their 3D NAND ramps.

在記憶體方面，我們預計整體支出將與上年基本持平，但是，產品組合中出現了一些對應用記憶體有利的重要變化。投資正從DRAM轉向NAND，繼2015年投資水準非常高之後，我們看到DRAM的投資至少下降了25%。相比之下，我們看到 NAND 快閃記憶體的價格隨著時間的推移而走強。由於多家客戶加快了 3D NAND 產能爬坡，我們最新的（技術難度）將比 2015 年高出 35%。

3D NAND is a great example of materials enabled scaling that plays directly to Applied's strengths. As I've said before, 3D NAND is all about depositing, removing and modifying materials with incredible precision. Because of this, our available market at a 3D NAND factory can be up to 3 times greater than for planar NAND. In the quarter, we booked nearly $1 billion of NAND orders, which is a record for us.

3D NAND 是材料賦能型擴展的一個很好的例子，它直接發揮了應用材料的優勢。正如我之前所說，3D NAND 的核心在於以驚人的精度沉積、去除和修改材料。因此，3D NAND 工廠的可用市場規模可能是平面 NAND 的 3 倍。本季度，我們獲得了近 10 億美元的 NAND 訂單，創下了公司紀錄。

In logic, we believe the spending levels will be very similar to last year. And when we take all of these factors into consideration, we believe that 2016 wafer fab equipment investments will be similar to 2015, with some upside potential.

從邏輯上講，我們認為支出水準將與去年非常相似。綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們認為 2016 年晶圓製造設備投資將與 2015 年類似，並具有一定的成長潛力。

I will now talk about the progress we're making in each of our major businesses. In semiconductor, I'm very pleased with our strategy, and how our product pipeline is shaping up. We made solid wafer fab equipment share gains in 2015, even though the spending mix was not as favorable for us as it is in 2016. Based on the positions we're winning, I expect much stronger share gains this year.

接下來我將談談我們在各個主要業務領域的進展。在半導體領域，我對我們的策略以及產品線的發展非常滿意。儘管 2015 年的支出結構不如 2016 年對我們有利，但我們在晶圓製造設備市場份額方面取得了穩定成長。根據我們目前的進展，我預計今年市佔率將大幅成長。

Across our semiconductor businesses, I see tremendous customer pull for our latest generation products. In CMP, our new LK Prime system now has over 130 units at customer sites. This product is winning market share, resulting in our highest quarterly CMP orders for a decade. We are also seeing a broader adoption of cobalt in advanced interconnect schemes, and this is driving demand for our cobalt CVD systems. This is one of the factors that is contributing to strong share gains in CVD this year.

在我們的半導體業務中，我看到了客戶對我們最新一代產品的巨大需求。在 CMP，我們全新的 LK Prime 系統目前已在客戶現場部署了 130 多台設備。該產品正在贏得市場份額，使我們獲得了十年來最高的季度 CMP 訂單量。我們也看到鈷在先進互連方案中得到更廣泛的應用，這推動了對我們鈷 CVD 系統的需求。這是今年CVD市場份額強勁成長的因素之一。

We continue to see rapid adoption of our Sym3 etch platform launched at last year's SEMICON West. We project that we will ship around 700 chambers by the end of our fiscal year, fueling strong conductor etch share gains in 2016.

我們看到，去年在 SEMICON West 展會上推出的 Sym3 蝕刻平台得到了迅速推廣。我們預計到本財年結束時，我們將交付約 700 個腔室，這將推動 2016 年導體蝕刻市場份額的強勁成長。

I'm also very excited that customers are beginning to transition a number of our highly disruptive new technologies from pilot to high-volume manufacturing. These include our selective removal products and Olympia ALD system.

我也非常高興地看到，客戶們開始將我們許多極具顛覆性的新技術從試點階段過渡到大規模生產階段。其中包括我們的選擇性去除產品和 Olympia ALD 系統。

In service, we are making significant investments in our organization and capabilities, so that we can deliver more value to our customers. These investments are generating a strong pipeline of new service products that help customers improve their device performance, yield and costs. We're on track to grow this business for the third year in a row, which I believe is strong evidence that our service strategy is working.

在服務方面，我們正在對組織和能力進行大量投資，以便為客戶創造更多價值。這些投資正在催生一系列強大的新服務產品，幫助客戶提高設備性能、產量和降低成本。我們預計將連續第三年實現業務成長，我認為這有力地證明了我們的服務策略是有效的。

In display, I am increasingly excited about our opportunities, and the unique position we have in this market. The major technology inflections that are taking place require materials innovation, so our available market is expanding significantly. One great example of this is thin-film encapsulation that protects an OLED device from air and moisture. The precision deposition of this film stack is incredibly challenging, and relies on Applied's advanced materials engineering capabilities.

在展示領域，我越來越興奮於我們面臨的機遇，以及我們在這個市場中擁有的獨特地位。正在發生的重大技術變革需要材料創新，因此我們的可用市場正在顯著擴大。薄膜封裝就是一個很好的例子，它可以保護 OLED 裝置免受空氣和濕氣的影響。這種薄膜堆疊的精確沉積極具挑戰性，仰賴應用材料公司先進的材料工程能力。

Overall, we estimate that our opportunity in OLED is more than 3 times larger than for traditional LCD. I believe we're still in the very early innings of OLED, but we're already seeing a significant impact on our business. This quarter, our orders in display were an all-time record.

整體而言，我們估計 OLED 領域的機會比傳統 LCD 領域大 3 倍以上。我認為我們仍處於OLED技術的早期階段，但我們已經看到它對我們的業務產生了重大影響。本季，我們的展示品訂單量創歷史新高。

To summarize, as I look ahead, I am increasingly confident that we are in a great position to drive sustainable, profitable growth at Applied Materials. Across the Company, I believe we have greater opportunities, and a stronger pipeline of enabling technologies than at any point in our history. We are investing more than ever to accelerate materials enabled innovations for our customers.

總而言之，展望未來，我越來越有信心，我們有能力推動應用材料公司實現可持續的、獲利性的成長。我認為，就整個公司而言，我們擁有比以往任何時期都更大的機會和更強大的賦能技術儲備。我們正加大投入，加速材料創新，以便更好地服務客戶。

We're maintaining a very positive outlook for 2016, because our customers are making inflection-driven investments, as they race to introduce new technologies. These investments are both highly strategic, and play directly to Applied's strengths. Now let me hand the call over to Bob, who will provide more details about our quarterly results, performance and priorities. Bob?

我們對 2016 年保持非常樂觀的展望，因為我們的客戶正在進行由轉折點驅動的投資，競相引入新技術。這兩項投資都具有高度策略意義，並且直接發揮了應用材料公司的優勢。現在我把電話交給鮑勃，他將詳細介紹我們的季度業績、表現和工作重點。鮑伯？

Thanks, Gary. Applied Materials is extremely well-positioned to deliver profitable growth, this year and for the foreseeable future. In Q2, we generated orders of $3.5 billion, the highest in 15 years.

謝謝你，加里。應用材料公司擁有非常有利的地位，今年以及在可預見的未來都能實現獲利成長。第二季度，我們創造了 35 億美元的訂單金額，這是 15 年來的最高紀錄。

Our strength was led by silicon systems, which had $2 billion in orders, with nearly half from NAND, and by display which had record orders of $700 million. Our backlog now down stands at $4.2 billion. And it's broad-based, with nearly half in silicon systems, and roughly a quarter each in services and display. Our silicon systems backlog is the highest in at least nine years.

我們的優勢主要來自矽系統，訂單額達 20 億美元，其中近一半來自 NAND；顯示器業務也取得了創紀錄的 7 億美元訂單。我們目前的積壓訂單總額為 42 億美元。而且其應用範圍很廣，其中近一半應用於矽系統，服務和顯示領域各佔約四分之一。我們的矽系統積壓訂單數量達到了至少九年來的最高水準。

Looking ahead, I'm confident that the investments we're making in differentiated products and services combined with our cost efficiency programs will drive record earnings. And I expect sustained performance, as we help our customers drive their technology road maps forward, particularly in foundry, NAND and advanced displays. We have momentum in services, and we are improving our execution and operational performance across the board.

展望未來，我相信我們對差異化產品和服務的投資，加上我們的成本效益計劃，將推動我們實現創紀錄的盈利。我預計業績將持續成長，因為我們將幫助客戶推進他們的技術路線圖，尤其是在晶圓代工、NAND 快閃記憶體和先進顯示器領域。我們在服務領域發展勢頭良好，並且正在全面提升執行力和營運績效。

Today I am (technical difficulty) confident that we are on track to achieve the earnings targets in our 2018 financial model. I'll provide a detailed update at our Analyst Day in September. But with the disruptive nature of our order strength, I'd like to give you some insights during this call.

今天，我（技術上困難）有信心，我們正按計劃實現 2018 年財務模型中的獲利目標。我將在九月份的分析師日活動上提供詳細的最新情況。但鑑於我們訂單強度的顛覆性，我想在這次電話會議中與大家分享一些見解。

We're making very good progress growing our revenues. If recent demand patterns continue, which seems likely, then by 2018 I believe we can meet or exceed our targets in silicon systems and services. Through 2018 and beyond, we believe display, NAND, and China will grow by more than we anticipated last year, and our positions in these growth areas are becoming stronger. I am also confident that we will meet or exceed our goals for tax rate, weighted average share count, and earnings per share.

我們在提升營收方面取得了非常好的進展。如果近期的需求模式持續下去（這似乎很有可能），那麼我相信到 2018 年，我們可以在矽系統和服務方面達到或超過我們的目標。我們相信，從 2018 年到未來，顯示器、NAND 快閃記憶體和中國市場將比我們去年預期的成長更多，我們在這些成長領域的地位也越來越穩固。我也相信我們能夠達到或超過稅率、加權平均股份數量和每股盈餘的目標。

Relative to gross margins, (technical difficulty) progress on our overall cost structure, and on optimizing the gross margins within our product lines. Even as our etch and display businesses strengthen their share, I believe we can hold our overall gross margins flat with last year.

相對於毛利率而言，（技術難度）我們在整體成本結構方面取得了進展，並在優化產品線內的毛利率方面取得了進展。即使我們的蝕刻和顯示業務的份額不斷擴大，我相信我們仍能保持整體毛利率與去年持平。

Over the model horizon, we now see faster than expected growth in etch and display. The net profitability gains from this revenue growth should be very positive for us, and we're committed to achieving our operating margin targets, even with the impact of this mix change on our overall gross margin percentage.

從模型預測的角度來看，我們現在看到蝕刻和顯示技術的成長速度超過了預期。這次營收成長帶來的淨利潤成長對我們來說應該非常積極，即使這種產品組合變化會對我們的整體毛利率產生影響，我們也致力於實現我們的營業利潤率目標。

Regarding operating expenses, Gary outlined how we are gaining share in our existing markets, and expanding our served addressable markets with strong customer pull. Today several of our customers are asking us to develop new technologies to support their product road maps, and we are choosing to increase our R&D investments in certain areas this year, notably in display.

關於營運費用，Gary 概述了我們如何在現有市場中獲得份額，以及如何透過強大的客戶拉動來擴大我們的服務目標市場。今天，我們的一些客戶要求我們開發新技術來支援他們的產品路線圖，因此我們選擇今年增加在某些領域的研發投入，尤其是在顯示器領域。

As we ramp up to support these new projects, we expect OpEx to increase by about $10 million sequentially in Q3, and stay at this level in Q4. At the same time, we'll continue to be very aggressive in controlling and optimizing our spending, to invest in sustainable revenue growth, while increasing our profitability.

隨著我們加大力度支持這些新項目，我們預計第三季營運支出將環比增加約 1000 萬美元，並在第四季度保持這一水平。同時，我們將繼續積極控制和優化支出，投資於可持續的收入成長，同時提高獲利能力。

Let me give you some insights into how we've optimized our operating expenses. Between 2012 and 2015, we cut spending in G&A organizations by 27%. In the same period, we boosted the funding of new and disruptive products by $400 million. We did this by using G&A savings to fund R&D, and by shifting spending from underperforming areas like solar, to areas where we can grow and gain share by enabling major technology inflections. Today our R&D to OpEx ratio is 67%, which is up by over 10 points relative to 2012.

讓我來向您介紹一下我們是如何優化營運成本的。2012 年至 2015 年間，我們削減了 G&A 部門 27% 的支出。同期，我們增加了創新顛覆性產品的資金投入 4 億美元。我們透過將節省的管理費用用於研發，並將支出從太陽能等表現不佳的領域轉移到我們可以成長並透過推動重大技術變革來獲得市場份額的領域，從而實現了這一目標。目前我們的研發投入與營運支出比率為 67%，比 2012 年提高了 10 多個百分點。

Now I will comment on our second quarter results. Revenue of $2.5 billion was at the high end of the guidance range, led by silicon systems. Non-GAAP gross margin of 42.7% was slightly higher than expected. Non-GAAP operating expenses of $575 million were within the range.

現在我將對我們第二季的業績進行點評。營收達 25 億美元，處於預期範圍的高端，主要得益於矽系統業務的成長。非GAAP毛利率為42.7%，略高於預期。非GAAP營運費用為5.75億美元，在預期範圍內。

Our non-GAAP tax rate declined to 14.4%, as more profits were generated in lower tax jurisdictions. We believe 15% is an achievable rate for the balance of the year. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.34 was the highest in four years, and the highest in eight years when excluding solar.

由於在低稅率地區創造了更多利潤，我們的非GAAP稅率下降至14.4%。我們認為，今年剩餘時間內，15%的收益率是可以實現的。非GAAP每股收益為0.34美元，為四年來最高；若不計入太陽能業務，則為八年來最高。

Next I'll update you on our cash returns during the period. In Q2, we returned more than $1 billion to our shareholders. We used $900 million to repurchase over 45 million shares of our stock, and paid $113 million in cash dividends.

接下來我將向您報告我們在此期間的現金收益。第二季度，我們向股東返還了超過10億美元。我們用 9 億美元回購了超過 4,500 萬股股票，並支付了 1.13 億美元的現金股利。

We ended the quarter with 1.1 billion shares outstanding, which is the level we targeted in our 2018 model. We've now completed 95% of the $3 billion authorization we announced last April, and we expect to complete the program in the current quarter. We remain committed to returning excess cash to shareholders using dividends and buybacks, and we plan to discuss the buyback program with the Board of Directors at our upcoming meeting.

本季末，我們流通股數為 11 億股，這與我們 2018 年模型中的目標水準一致。我們已完成去年四月宣布的 30 億美元授權計畫的 95%，預計將在本季完成該計畫。我們仍致力於透過分紅和股票回購將多餘的現金返還給股東，我們計劃在即將召開的董事會會議上與董事會討論股票回購計畫。

Before I turn the guidance, let me share some observations and expectations surrounding our display business. Disruptive technology changes are happening in the display market that will increase customer spending this year and beyond. In the TV market, while there is sufficient overall capacity at this time, we expect additional investments in certain regions. And longer-term, I believe the technologies now being piloted in mobile will be attractive in TVs as well. Such adoption would be very positive for us.

在闡述指導意見之前，我想先分享一些關於我們顯示器業務的觀察和期望。顯示器市場正在發生顛覆性技術變革，這將增加今年及以後的消費者支出。在電視市場，雖然目前整體產能充足，但我們預期某些地區將有額外的投資。從長遠來看，我相信目前在行動裝置上試行的技術在電視領域也將具有吸引力。這樣的採納對我們來說將是非常正面的。

Today customer demand for our display products is increasing, particularly in mobile. As a reference point, over the past three years our display orders were $750 million per year on average. Our display orders were $883 million in the first half of this year alone.

如今，客戶對我們顯示產品的需求不斷增長，尤其是在行動裝置領域。作為參考，過去三年我們的顯示器訂單平均每年為 7.5 億美元。光是今年上半年，我們的展示品訂單就達到了 8.83 億美元。

The growth we're announcing in display, comes largely from new products we've funded and developed over the past few years. Based on conversations with our customers, we expect display order strength over the rest of 2016.

我們在顯示器領域的成長，主要來自我們過去幾年投資和開發的新產品。根據與客戶的交流，我們預計 2016 年剩餘時間顯示器訂單將保持強勁勢頭。

Most display systems are very large, and often take two to three quarters to build, deliver, install and revenue. And customers are pulling for Applied to develop new display technologies that I believe will significantly expand our market opportunities over the next several years. We'll invest in additional new and disruptive products to capture these opportunities.

大多數顯示系統體積龐大，通常需要兩到三個季度才能完成建造、交付、安裝和產生收益。客戶都希望應用材料公司能夠開發新的顯示技術，我相信這些技術將在未來幾年內顯著擴大我們的市場機會。我們將投資開發更多顛覆性的新產品，以抓住這些機會。

And while our display orders and revenues will continue to be lumpy from quarter to quarter, I believe we'll deliver sustainable growth over time. We'll have more to say about our display opportunities at our Analyst Meeting in September.

雖然我們的顯示器訂單和收入仍會逐季波動，但我相信隨著時間的推移，我們將實現永續成長。我們將在九月的分析師會議上詳細介紹我們的展示機會。

Now I'll provide the business outlook for our third quarter. We expect our overall net sales to be up by 14% to 18% sequentially. Within the revenue outlook, we expect silicon systems net sales to be up by 10% to 15%. AGS net sales should be up by 5% to 8%. We expect display net sales to be up by 70% to 90% to approximately $300 million, and EES net sales should be flat to up slightly.

現在我將介紹我們第三季的業務展望。我們預計整體淨銷售額將環比成長 14% 至 18%。在營收展望方面，我們預期矽系統淨銷售額將成長 10% 至 15%。AGS淨銷售額預計將成長5%至8%。我們預計顯示器淨銷售額將成長 70% 至 90%，達到約 3 億美元，而 EES 淨銷售額應該會持平或略有成長。

We are modeling the non-GAAP gross margin percentage to be up by 50 to 100 basis points sequentially. Non-GAAP operating expenses should be $585 million, plus or minus $10 million. The midpoint is up just 1.6% from the same period last year, and we expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $0.46 to $0.50. The midpoint is up 45% from this period last year. This EPS guidance represents a new record that is significantly above any previous performance for Applied Materials.

我們預計非GAAP毛利率將季增50至100個基點。非GAAP營運費用應為5.85億美元，上下浮動1000萬美元。中點數值僅比去年同期成長 1.6%，我們預計非 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 0.46 美元至 0.50 美元之間。中點數值比去年同期上漲了 45%。這項每股收益預期創下應用材料公司的新紀錄，遠高於其以往任何業績。

To summarize, while overall economic and semiconductor industry conditions are relatively flat this year, Applied Materials is uniquely well-positioned. We plan to set new records in a number of areas, including EPS for the full year. We have significantly biased our spending towards disruptive new products and customer support. And I believe we now have a great pipeline of new and emerging products, focused on the key technology inflections.

總而言之，儘管今年整體經濟和半導體產業狀況相對平穩，但應用材料公司卻擁有得天獨厚的優勢。我們計劃在多個領域創造新紀錄，包括全年每股盈餘 (EPS)。我們已將支出大幅增加，主要集中在顛覆性新產品和客戶支援方面。我相信我們現在擁有大量新興產品，專注於關鍵的技術轉折點。

We also have strong customer pull in markets and regions that give us sustainable opportunities to deliver profitable growth in the years ahead. Now let me turn the call over to Mike for questions.

我們在某些​​市場和地區擁有強大的客戶吸引力，這將為我們在未來幾年實現可持續的獲利成長提供機會。現在我把電話交給麥克，讓他提問。

Thanks, Bob. To help us reach as many of you as we can, please ask just one question, and no more than one brief follow-up. Let's please begin.

謝謝你，鮑伯。為了幫助我們盡可能地聯繫到你們，請只提一個問題，並且不要進行超過一次的簡短後續提問。請開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指令）Toshiya Hari，高盛。

Hi. Thank you for taking my question, and congrats on a very strong guide. My first question is on the display side of the business. In the past, you guys have talked about increasing your SAM by, I think 3X over the next couple of years. I guess, my question is, how much of that have you realized already, and how much of that is still coming, going forward?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題，也祝賀您編寫了一本非常棒的指南。我的第一個問題是關於業務展示方面的。過去，你們曾討論過在未來幾年內將 SAM 增加 3 倍。我想問的是，你已經意識到了多少，又有多少是未來才會意識到的？

Sure. Let me see if I can start, and Gary can jump in. What we're seeing is two or three things helping us here. One, the overall market is growing for spending, two, our position in it is growing. I don't think we've reached the culmination of our ability to grow our SAM. I think that's going to go on for the next several years.

當然。我先試試能不能開始，然後蓋瑞可以加入。我們看到有兩三件事對我們有幫助。第一，整體市場消費正在成長；第二，我們在該市場的地位也不斷提升。我認為我們還沒有達到發展 SAM 能力的極限。我認為這種情況會持續好幾年。

Okay, that's helpful. My follow-up is on the core SSG side of things. In the quarter that you just reported, obviously NAND orders were up a lot sequentially. And I was surprised to see foundry down a little bit. On the NAND side, where are you picking up share? And on the foundry side, is it fair to assume that orders pick up in the current July quarter? Thank you.

好的，這很有幫助。我的後續問題主要集中在SSG的核心。顯然，在你剛剛公佈的季度報告中，NAND 訂單環比大幅增長。令我驚訝的是，鑄造廠的產能略有下降。在NAND快閃記憶體方面，你們的市佔率主要來自哪裡？就鑄造廠而言，是否可以合理地假設訂單量在目前的 7 月季度有所回升？謝謝。

Yes, thanks, Toshiya On the NAND business, very, very, very strong pull from customers, as NAND moves from litho-enabled scaling to materials-enabled scaling, so we see very strong pull for etch. We're gaining new steps in NAND, very, very strong performance.

是的，謝謝，Toshiya。關於 NAND 業務，客戶的需求非常非常非常強烈，因為 NAND 從光刻技術驅動的微縮發展到材料驅動的微縮發展，所以我們看到蝕刻技術的需求非常強烈。我們在NAND快閃記憶體領域取得了新的進展，效能非常非常強勁。

Overall, we believe this will be a strong year for our etch business. We'll gain share. And certainly, in 3D NAND, the growth there is significant.

總體而言，我們相信今年對我們的蝕刻業務來說將是強勁的一年。我們將獲得市場份額。當然，在 3D NAND 領域，成長是顯著的。

Deposition is another area, CVD is an area that's very, very strong in NAND. We have additional epi steps in NAND. There are many additional CMP steps. So there are a number of areas where there's really significant growth for us in 3D NAND.

沉積是另一個領域，CVD 是 NAND 領域非常非常強大的領域。我們在NAND快閃記憶體中增加了額外的外延步驟。還有許多其他的CMP步驟。因此，在 3D NAND 領域，我們有許多面向都存在著顯著的成長空間。

And we look at this as a wave that will continue over the next few years. So it's really a great opportunity for Applied, where our TAM is going up, as you are moving from litho to materials, and we are also significantly increasing our share in 3D NAND.

我們認為這股浪潮將在未來幾年持續下去。因此，對於應用材料來說，這確實是一個絕佳的機會，因為我們的市場規模正在擴大，因為我們正從光刻技術轉向材料技術，而且我們在 3D NAND 領域的份額也在顯著增加。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

C.J. Muse, Evercore.

C.J. Muse，Evercore。

Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I guess, first question is on the silicon front, so a couple parts with it.

是的。午安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想，第一個問題是關於矽晶片方面的，所以涉及到幾個零件。

First one is, you talked about upside potential to your flat WFE outlook, would love to hear your thoughts there. And then, as you think about growing share in etch, a very favorable mix in terms of foundry as well as China, and what you're doing around 3D NAND, how should we think about your growth in calendar 2016 relative to that flat to slightly up WFE outlook?

首先，您提到了WFE前景趨於平穩的上行潛力，很想聽聽您的看法。然後，考慮到您在蝕刻領域的市場份額不斷增長，以及代工廠和中國方面非常有利的組合，還有您在 3D NAND 領域所做的工作，我們應該如何看待您在 2016 年的增長，相對於 WFE 持平或略有增長的前景？

Yes, we -- so I'll try and Gary can jump in. We agree, it's flat to up a little bit this year. The year's unfolded as we hoped last November, and it's gotten better and better for us, frankly. If you all look at it, the NAND has picked up. We now think it's up about 35% year-on-year, whereas DRAM is probably about down 25%.

是的，我們——所以我試試，加里也可以加入。我們同意，今年整體走勢平穩或略有上漲。今年一切都如我們去年11月所希望的發展，坦白說，對我們來說，情況越來越好。大家仔細看看，NAND快閃記憶體已經漲起來了。我們現在認為它同比增長約 35%，而 DRAM 可能下降約 25%。

Foundry is not up a lot this year, up somewhat. But if you look at our position within foundry, it's really, really strong, and in DRAM we're also gaining. So if you go look at our position with each, we're gaining share.

今年鑄造廠股價漲幅不大，只是略有上漲。但如果你看看我們在晶圓代工領域的地位，你會發現我們真的非常強大，而且我們在DRAM領域也不斷進步。所以，如果你看一下我們與每個市場的份額對比，你會發現我們正在擴大市場份額。

I'll give you a factoid, you may not have picked up on. Pre-2012, in 2012, we were only over 15% share by the -- in one of the four major groups, whether you look at NAND, DRAM, foundry and logic. This year, we project to be over 20% in all four.

我來告訴你一個你可能沒注意到的事實。2012 年之前，也就是 2012 年，我們在四大主要領域之一（無論是 NAND、DRAM、晶圓代工或邏輯）的市佔率僅略高於 15%。今年，我們預計這四項指標都將超過 20%。

So if you look at the NAND spending of $9.2 billion, our share is going go probably from under 15% to north of 20% this year, and the spending is up to about $9.2 billion, whereas in the base year of 2012 it was about $4.2 billion. So the market is up, and our share is up significantly, and the NAND strength goes on for a number of years. As you know, by the end of this year, we're only going to have about 375,000 wafer starts converted. There's about another 1 million wafer starts out there planar.

因此，如果你看一下 NAND 的支出，92 億美元，我們的份額今年可能會從不到 15% 增長到超過 20%，支出也增長到約 92 億美元，而 2012 年的基準年約為 42 億美元。所以市場上漲了，我們的市佔率也大幅上漲，NAND 的強勁勢頭將持續數年。如你所知，到今年年底，我們只能完成大約 375,000 個晶圓的轉換。還有大約100萬個晶圓是平面晶圓。

If you go look at foundry, we anticipate it being a reasonable year in foundry, but our position has done really well whether it's in Taiwan, or a lot of the activity going on in China. So we're gaining, we're doing very strongly there too.

如果你去看看鑄造業，我們預計今年鑄造業會是一個不錯的年份，但無論是在台灣還是在中國的許多行業活動中，我們的業務都表現得非常好。所以我們正在取得進展，我們在那裡也做得非常出色。

And then also logic, we're doing well in leading edge logic.

此外，邏輯方面我們也做得很好，我們在前沿邏輯領域表現出色。

So the way the year is laid out, our positioning of our products in the markets that are fastest-growing, whether it is NAND, strength in leading edge foundry, strength in China, and also strength in display is playing very well for Applied. So we expect within semi, we will gain share this year.

因此，從今年的規劃來看，我們在成長最快的市場中對產品進行定位，無論是 NAND、領先的代工優勢、中國市場優勢或顯示器市場優勢，都對應用材料公司非常有利。因此，我們預計今年在半導體領域，我們將獲得市場份額。

Thanks, C.J. I will take the etch question. So as I said earlier, we think that 2016 is going to be a really strong year for us in growing our etch share. We have a very strong position, very, very strong position in 3D NAND conductor etch. So as that business continues to grow, as that wave moves forward over the next few years, we're in a really great position.

謝謝，C.J.。我會回答蝕刻的問題。正如我之前所說，我們認為 2016 年對我們來說將是蝕刻市場佔有率大幅成長的一年。我們在 3D NAND 導體蝕刻領域擁有非常強大的地位，非常非常強大的地位。因此，隨著這項業務的持續成長，隨著這股浪潮在未來幾年不斷向前推進，我們處於非常有利的地位。

And we have some of the most exciting products in this group that I've seen in my whole career. The Sym3, tremendous pull from customers, in 3D NAND, and also in other segments. We're winning new steps, and strong pull really across the board for Sym3, so very, very, very strong position there.

我們這個團隊擁有我職業生涯中見過的最令人興奮的產品。Sym3 在 3D NAND 以及其他領域都獲得了客戶的巨大需求。我們正在取得新的進展，Sym3 在各個方面都獲得了強有力的支持，因此我們在該領域佔據了非常非常非常強大的地位。

And also in selective material removal, we have very strong pull from customers, and that business is growing also for us at a strong rate. So overall, we think 2016 is going to be a great year for us in etch. And again, it's some of the strongest products I've seen in my career.

此外，在選擇性材料去除領域，我們也得到了客戶的強烈需求，這項業務也正在快速成長。總的來說，我們認為 2016 年對於蝕刻產業來說將是偉大的一年。再次強調，這是我職業生涯中見過的最強大的產品之一。

Very helpful, thank you. If I could sneak a quick one on OLED in. I thought your commentary on the TV side was interesting. When do you think you will start to see your first Gen8-plus orders for OLED?

非常有用，謝謝。如果我能偷偷在OLED螢幕上快速看一遍就好了。我覺得你對電視的評論很有趣。您預計何時會開始收到第一批第八代及以後的OLED訂單？

Right now, what's driving the market in 2016, as we said earlier in the year over -- we said earlier in the year, over 60% of our orders and revenues this year were going to be mobile versus TV. In fact, that's turning out -- it's probably over 70% now, in terms of order rate.

正如我們今年稍早所說，目前推動 2016 年市場發展的因素是——我們今年稍早說過，我們今年超過 60% 的訂單和收入將來自行動裝置，而不是電視。事實上，情況確實如此——就訂單率而言，現在可能已經超過 70% 了。

If you look at the big inflection that's taking place in mobile, it's around OLED. That inflection may come some time in TVs, but it's not in our foreseeable immediate future.

如果你觀察行動裝置領域正在發生的重大轉折點，你會發現它與 OLED 技術息息相關。電視領域或許會在某個時候出現這種轉變，但不會在我們可預見的近期內發生。

Very helpful. Thanks.

很有幫助。謝謝。

Steven Chin, UBS.

Steven Chin，瑞銀集團。

Thanks. Hi, Gary and Bob, congrats on the execution. Just a question, Bob, on the comment that there may be display order strength for the rest of 2016. Is the display visibility from a follow-on order to a big Korean customer, or do you have visibility from other display customers, perhaps in China who are constructing a lot of new display fabs? It just sounds like the message is aimed at total orders could be strong in the second half of the year; just trying to get some color on that. Thanks.

謝謝。嗨，Gary 和 Bob，恭喜你們成功執行。鮑勃，我有個問題，關於你提到的2016年剩餘時間裡可能會出現訂單強勁增長的說法。顯示器的可見性是來自韓國大客戶的後續訂單，還是來自其他顯示器客戶（例如在中國建造大量新顯示器工廠的客戶）的可見性？聽起來像是說下半年總訂單量可能會很強勁；我只是想了解一下具體情況。謝謝。

Well, I think as Gary, referred to sort of the waves -- the things that are happening for us now are not one quarter events. There are several inflections going on, In display, it's around OLED; in NAND, it's around VNAND. And even in the China thing that's going to go on for years. And the foundry strength we're seeing at 10 and 7 is going to go on the next couple years. So these big inflections are going to go on for a number of years.

嗯，我認為正如加里所說的那樣，我們現在所經歷的這些事情，並非一蹴可幾的事件。目前有幾個轉折點正在發生，顯示技術方面，轉折點圍繞著OLED；NAND快閃記憶體方面，轉折點圍繞著VNAND。即使在中國，這種情況也會持續好幾年。我們看到鑄造業的實力在10和7之間，這種勢頭將在未來幾年內持續下去。因此，這些重大轉折點將會持續數年。

So for instance in display, we think it's going to go on for a while, it's not a one quarter event. And we see the concentration in mobile. In terms of your specific question on TVs, I guess, in China, was that the specific question?

例如，在展覽方面，我們認為它會持續一段時間，而不是一個季度的活動。我們看到這種集中化趨勢體現在行動裝置上。至於你提出的關於電視機的具體問題，我想，在中國，這就是你提出的具體問題嗎？

More like the second half of the year.

更像是下半年。

Oh, second-half mobile. Yes, we think the display order rate will stay strong for the rest of the year.

哦，下半場手機版。是的，我們認為今年剩餘時間裡，展示品訂單量將保持強勁成長。

Okay. Thanks, Bob. Just a follow-up question on the foundry orders. So I just want to clarify, do you think we'll see second-half foundry orders up? Because foundry orders are up in the second half, it's possible AMAT's total orders could remain quite strong for the second half of the year too.

好的。謝謝你，鮑伯。關於代工廠訂單，還有一個後續問題。所以我想確認一下，您認為下半年代工廠的訂單會增加嗎？由於鑄造訂單在下半年有所增加，AMAT 的總訂單量在下半年也可能保持強勁。

We think in our fiscal year we think our orders in foundry remain quite strong. We think in the calendar year, split for the business, we think foundry is second-half weighted also. So we think second half is pretty good on foundry.

我們認為，在本財年內，鑄造廠的訂單依然相當強勁。我們認為，從日曆年來看，如果按業務劃分，鑄造業務的權重也會集中在下半年。所以我們認為下半年鑄造業表現相當不錯。

Okay. Thanks, Bob. Congrats.

好的。謝謝你，鮑伯。恭喜。

Tim Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

提姆·阿庫裡，考恩公司。

Thanks a lot. I had two. I guess, Bob, I'm just looking at the upside to the orders, and it really seems like it was driven from clearly OLED and it looks like China memory stuff. So it seems like you are finally beginning to see some of these China memory projects move within your 12 month shipment window.

多謝。我有兩個。鮑勃，我想，我只是在關注訂單的積極方面，而且看起來這顯然是由 OLED 驅動的，看起來像是中國製造的儲存設備。看來您終於開始看到一些中國製造的記憶體專案在您的 12 個月出貨期內啟動了。

So I guess, my question really is, how much can China add to WFE say, next year? Because if you book an incremental $400 million to $500 million this quarter from those projects, that would argue that you could add maybe a couple billion to WFE next year. So I'm wondering if that math works with you?

所以我想問的是，明年中國能為世界糧食計畫署（WFE）做出多大的貢獻？因為如果本季這些項目能帶來 4 億至 5 億美元的額外收入，那麼明年 WFE 的收入或許就能增加數十億美元。所以我想知道，你覺得這種計算方法可行嗎？

Yes, let me give you -- you sort of have two questions, but let me see if I can do them both. First, in terms of the second quarter just ended, we were pretty strong across the board in orders. We had a very strong quarter, almost $1 billion as Gary mentioned in NAND. And then, in terms of the other devices, foundry, DRAM and logic, we were reasonably strong actually across the board, and display was very strong, and services did well too. So our strength was pretty broad.

是的，我來回答你──你其實有兩個問題，但我看看我能不能都回答。首先，就剛結束的第二季而言，我們的訂單整體表現相當強勁。正如 Gary 在 NAND 中提到的，我們本季業績非常強勁，接近 10 億美元。至於其他設備，如晶圓代工、DRAM 和邏輯電路，我們整體實力都相當強勁，顯示器業務非常出色，服務業務也表現良好。所以我們的優勢相當廣。

In terms of the China impact, the Chinese talk about spending $20 billion to $30 billion over sort of four to five years. We're seeing record revenues for ourselves in China this period, and it's gone up. Our expectations for the year have gone up every quarter basically. So in terms of -- so if they spend $20 billion to $30 billion over four or five years, how much is incremental? That's about $4 billion a year roughly, $5 billion a year.

就中國的影響而言，中國人表示將在四到五年內投入 200 億至 300 億美元。我們在中國的收入在這段時間內創下了歷史新高，而且還在成長。基本上每個季度我們都在提高今年的預期。所以，就此而言——如果他們在四五年內花費 200 億至 300 億美元，那麼增量是多少？那大約是每年40億美元到50億美元。

I would say, for the next three years, you could see some -- maybe half of it incremental? And I think it provides an underpinning for overall demand, so that you feel pretty comfortable that next year is probably a good 32 year if you guess, because you get this underpinning of good NAND, good China. I think the second wave of 10, 7 is okay. DRAM, I'm not sure about.

我認為，在接下來的三年裡，你可能會看到一些東西——也許一半是漸進式的？我認為這為整體需求提供了支撐，所以你可以相當肯定地說，明年可能是個不錯的第 32 年，因為有良好的 NAND 快閃記憶體和良好的中國市場作為支撐。我認為第二波10、7的安排還可以。DRAM，我不太確定。

Yes, one other thing I would say is China is probably our strongest region, relative to our position, with both the domestic companies and multi-national companies. And as Bob said, the momentum just keeps building. We doubled revenue in China over the last two years, and I'm spending a fair amount of time there myself.

是的，我還想補充一點，就我們目前的市場地位而言，中國可能是我們實力最強的地區，無論是國內企業還是跨國企業。正如鮑伯所說，這股動能仍在不斷增強。過去兩年，我們在中國的收入翻了一番，我自己也花了不少時間在那裡。

And certainly, you look at what's happening there now, and discussions for future projects, as Bob said, multi-year wave opportunity in terms of China. Hard to say exactly what the number would be, but it's definitely going to be up a fair amount.

當然，看看現在那裡正在發生的事情，以及未來項目的討論，正如鮑勃所說，就中國而言，這是一個持續多年的發展機會。很難說具體數字會是多少，但肯定會大幅上漲。

Got it. Thanks for that. And then, I guess, follow-up is, I know previously, you guys talked about 3D NAND installed target of like 350,000 to 400,000 industry-wide exiting this year. So it seemed like maybe the industry was going to add roughly 200,000 this year. So my question is, how much of that is conversion, versus how much of that's greenfield? Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。然後，我想補充一點，我知道你們之前討論過，今年全行業的 3D NAND 安裝目標約為 35 萬到 40 萬個。所以看起來今年該產業可能會新增約 20 萬個就業機會。所以我的問題是，其中有多少是改建項目，又有多少是新建項目？謝謝。

Sure. This year, we came into the year with 150,000 installed. We think the year goes out to 350,000 to 400,000. In terms of the mix, we think capacity adds are probably 100,000 to 150,000; converts are 100,000 to 150,000 in the year. That's in the year, right? Yes.

當然。今年年初，我們的安裝量已達 15 萬台。我們認為這一年會達到 35 萬到 40 萬。就組合而言，我們認為新增產能可能在 10 萬到 15 萬台之間；轉換產能在一年內可能在 10 萬到 15 萬台之間。那是指那一年，對吧？是的。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Farhan Ahmad, Credit Suisse.

Farhan Ahmad，瑞士信貸。

Hi, guys. Congrats on the great quarter. One question on your spending pattern on NAND, like do you still think it's a first half weighted this year, or do you think it will grow in second half?

嗨，大家好。恭喜你們本季業績出色。關於您在 NAND 上的支出模式，我有一個問題：您仍然認為今年的支出主要集中在上半年，還是認為下半年會成長？

And the incremental strength you are seeing in the NAND, is it stronger in -- is it more in the second half, that you are seeing the uptick, or was it already captured in your bookings in the first half?

您在 NAND 方面看到的成長勢頭，在下半年更為強勁，還是在上半年的預訂量中就已經有所體現？

Yes, in terms of the NAND split, we think the second half -- first half is stronger for NAND, but the second half is pretty good. So we think it's more first half-weighted, but it doesn't fall off a cliff in the second. It's pretty good.

是的，就 NAND 快閃記憶體的劃分而言，我們認為後半部——前半部 NAND 快閃記憶體表現更強，但後半部也相當不錯。所以我們認為它前半段的權重更大，但後半段並不會斷崖式下跌。還不錯。

And what was your second question? I'm sorry, I was looking at the base.

你的第二個問題是什麼？對不起，我剛才在看底座。

Just like the uptick that you are seeing in NAND. Like you mentioned NAND spending is now -- you expect it to be stronger than your last quarter call. And I just wanted to understand, is the uptick more in the first half or second half?

就像你看到的 NAND 快閃記憶體價格上漲一樣。正如您所提到的，NAND快閃記憶體的支出目前——您預計會比上個季度預測的要強勁。我只是想了解一下，成長趨勢是在上半年還是下半年更為明顯？

Yes, we're up to about $9.2 billion on NAND right now, and I think last quarter, we were about a $0.5 billion less maybe. We're seeing broad-based spending. Some stuff was pulled into the first half, and second half is staying strong.

是的，我們目前在 NAND 上的投資額約為 92 億美元，而上個季度可能少了約 5 億美元。我們看到支出正在全面成長。有些內容被壓縮到了上半場，下半場依然保持強勁勢頭。

Got it. And then, regarding China, obviously, like it's the strongest for you in this quarter, but even going back, it seems like it's been tracking to the second strongest region for you guys for a while. I just wanted to understand, in terms of your exposure to China, how much of that this quarter was display versus semiconductors? If you can provide some color on that, that would be really helpful.

知道了。至於中國，顯然，它在本季是你們最強勁的市場，但即使回顧過去，它似乎也一直是你們第二強勁的市場。我想了解的是，就貴公司在中國的業務而言，本季顯示器業務和半導體業務分別佔多大比例？如果你能提供一些細節訊息，那就太好了。

Yes, we were particularly strong in semiconductor this quarter in China. We see display has been very strong, but right now the TVs in China, the order rate is not quite as high as it was.

是的，本季我們在中國半導體業務表現尤為強勁。我們看到顯示器市場表現非常強勁，但目前中國電視的訂單量不如以前那麼高了。

Got it. That's all I had. Thank you.

知道了。這就是我全部的家當。謝謝。

Patrick Ho, Stifel Nicolas.

Patrick Ho，Stifel Nicolas。

Thank you very much. First, Gary and Bob, in terms of the foundry orders and outlook that you have, have you started seeing any pickup in 10 nanometers, or are you still seeing like the first quarter, some of your orders coming in from the 28 nanometer node?

非常感謝。首先，Gary 和 Bob，就你們的代工廠訂單和前景而言，你們是否已經開始看到 10 奈米製程的訂單有所回升，還是像第一季度那樣，一些訂單仍然來自 28 奈米製程節點？

Yes, we're going to have a strong 10 year, then you're going to have some 7 also. In terms of the split, we think -- it came into the year with a 10 and 7 of about 10,000. We think you go out of the year, maybe 60, so maybe add 50 concentrated in Taiwan.

是的，我們將迎來一個強勁的十年，然後你們也會有一些七年。就分成比例而言，我們認為——年初時，10 和 7 的比例約為 10,000。我們認為一年下來，也許有 60 人，所以也許可以加上 50 人集中在台灣。

And then, if you look at it, what's unusual about this or interesting, Patrick, some of the trailing edge stuff is pretty strong. So you see a fair amount of over 40 and above, and you see pretty good 28 year also. And a lot of that is the China impact.

然後，如果你仔細觀察，你會發現帕特里克，這其中有什麼不尋常或有趣的地方，那就是一些後緣部分非常強大。所以你會看到相當多的 40 歲以上的人，也會看到很多不錯的 28 歲的人。其中很大一部分原因是受中國的影響。

Great. And in terms of your shareholder return, you mentioned that you're completing your shareholder -- your stock buyback this current quarter. Can you maybe perhaps give a little bit of update of what you think you're going to do on a going forward basis?

偉大的。至於股東回報方面，您提到您將在本季完成股東－股票回購計畫。您能否簡要介紹一下您接下來的計劃？

Yes, we're going to talk about this at the Board of Directors meeting. We are, as obvious, we are very committed to shareholder returns, cash returns to shareholders. In fact, in the last year, we've returned 250% of our free cash flow, so we can't stay at that level.

是的，我們將在董事會會議上討論此事。顯而易見，我們非常重視股東回報，也就是向股東回饋現金回報。事實上，去年我們返還了 250% 的自由現金流，所以我們不能一直保持在這個水平。

We are committed. And as we also said in the call, we will beat our targets for weighted average share in the model in 2018. So you know we're almost there now, so we'll continue to get better on that.

我們承諾會做到。正如我們在電話會議中所說，我們將在 2018 年實現模型中加權平均份額的目標。所以你知道，我們現在幾乎已經成功了，我們會繼續在這方面做得更好。

In terms of the magnitude of that, we have to talk to the Board. But we are committed to shareholder returns. We are committed to beating the weighted average shares in the model, and the details of that, we'll have to go through with the Board in June.

至於這件事的嚴重程度，我們需要和董事會談談。但我們始終致力於為股東帶來回報。我們致力於超越模型中的加權平均股份目標，具體細節我們將在六月與董事會討論。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Romit Shah, Nomura.

Romit Shah，野村證券。

Yes. Thank you, and congratulations on the success here. Bob, you've given it to us in bits and pieces, but I was just hoping you could overall, give us a sense of how you're thinking about second-half calendar revenues, over the first half? On one hand, with the strong July guide, you've got arguably a tough comp. On the other hand, I did notice that your revenue growth guidance for July is well below your growth in your backlog, which implies that sales should be strong for the balance of the year. So just how are you thinking about second-half calendar year versus first half overall?

是的。謝謝，也恭喜你在這裡取得成功。鮑勃，你之前零零散散地跟我們說過，但我只是希望你能總體上給我們介紹一下你對下半年營收與上半年相比的看法？一方面，由於七月的天氣預報強勁，可以說競爭非常激烈。另一方面，我注意到你們對 7 月份的營收成長預期遠低於你們的積壓訂單成長預期，這意味著今年剩餘時間的銷售額應該會很強勁。那麼，您如何看待下半年與上半年的整體狀況？

Well, I will piece together the data you already have, just to give you some more pieces to the puzzle. Our backlog at the end of the quarter was $4.2 billion. And we said in the 10 -- we're going to say it in the 10-Q, I'll say it right now: 73% of the backlog is shippable in the next six months. And then, if you look at it on the semi side, the lead times on that stuff typically are not too long.

我會把你已有的數據整理出來，希望能提供你更多線索。本季末，我們的積壓訂單為 42 億美元。我們在 10-Q 報告中說過——我們將在 10-Q 報告中說明，我現在就說：73% 的積壓訂單可以在未來六個月內交付。而且，從半成品的角度來看，這類產品的交貨週期通常不會太長。

On display, we've said that the lead times historically have been six to nine months. Now we're able to increase our outlook for display revenues next quarter, because we've primed the pump a little bit in the supply chain. So we're optimistic that display can continue strong in revenues, for the rest of the calendar year.

展覽中我們曾提到，以往的交貨週期為六到九個月。現在，由於我們在供應鏈方面做了一些準備工作，因此我們能夠提高對下一季顯示器收入的預期。因此，我們樂觀地認為，在今年剩餘的時間裡，顯示器業務的收入將持續保持強勁成長。

So we are feeling pretty good that our second half will be up from first half, and that we'll do well in the year. And the underpinnings that we talked about are strength in display where we have the orders in backlog, and continue that strong. In semi, we've said to you, we think that our share gain goes up this year, as in semi equipment. And services will get strong, for the rest of the year will be continue to be strong. And so, we feel pretty good about the second half.

所以我們覺得下半年的業績會比上半年好，今年也會有不錯的成績。而我們討論的基礎是，我們在訂單積壓方面展現出強大的實力，並且要繼續保持這種強勁勢頭。我們已經告訴過你們，在半導體領域，我們認為今年我們的市佔率成長將會上升，就像在半導體設備領域一樣。服務業將保持強勁勢頭，並且在今年餘下的時間裡將繼續保持強勁勢頭。所以，我們對下半場感覺相當不錯。

Great. And then just on display, as the revenues improve, how do we think about incremental margins on this business? It's -- I think it's averaged about 20%, but we know that it does bounce around.

偉大的。然後，隨著收入的提高，我們該如何看待這項業務的增量利潤率？我認為平均約為 20%，但我們也知道它會波動。

We think the operating margins prospectively for display are pretty positive. Right now, we're ramping a lot of things. We're ramping new products, we're ramping production. So we think over time, as we basically have said or implied in the financial model of the Company, the display operating margins for the Company will be similar to the overall average for the Company.

我們認為顯示器業務的預期營運利潤率相當樂觀。目前，我們正在加快許多專案的進度。我們正在加大新產品研發和生產力。因此我們認為，隨著時間的推移，正如我們在公司財務模型中基本上已經說過或暗示的那樣，公司的顯示器營運利潤率將與公司的整體平均值相似。

Now both display and AGS have a slightly different business model than SSG, in that the gross margins tend to be a little higher in SSG but the operating expense metrics are less in AGS and display. So you net-net come down to about the same operating margins.

現在，顯示器和AGS的商業模式與SSG略有不同，SSG的毛利率往往略高，但AGS和顯示器的營運費用指標較低。所以最終的營業利益率大致相同。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Krish Sankar, Bank of America.

Krish Sankar，美國銀行。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I have two of them. First one, either Bob or Gary. Of the $700 million in display orders, how much of them was for OLED specifically, and would most of these be revenued in fiscal 2017? Can you give us some color on that? And then I had a follow-up.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。我有兩個。第一個，要嘛是鮑勃，要嘛是加里。在 7 億美元的顯示器訂單中，有多少是專門用於 OLED 的？其中大部分能否在 2017 財年實現收入？能詳細解釋一下嗎？然後我還有後續跟進。

Sure. What we said earlier in the year, that of our display business this year, over 60% was going to be mobile. And in fact, it's probably over 70% now. And the vast -- a significant majority of that, a great majority of that is focused on the OLED market this year, in terms of the order rate.

當然。我們今年稍早說過，我們今年的展示業務中，超過 60% 將是行動端的。事實上，現在可能已經超過 70% 了。而今年，絕大多數訂單都集中在 OLED 市場。

In terms of when it revenues, we anticipate as we guided, that our revenues will be up next quarter. We are positive about our revenue opportunity for Q4, and we think we'll do very well in display next year too. They won't all obviously revenue in the next six months, three to six months, but we feel good about our opportunity on a long-term basis in display.

至於營收何時實現，我們預計正如我們之前所預測的那樣，下個季度營收將會成長。我們對第四季的收入前景充滿信心，並認為明年在展示業務方面也會取得非常好的成績。顯然，他們不會在未來三到六個月內全部獲得收入，但我們對展示領域的長期發展前景感到樂觀。

Got it. Got it. And then, a follow-up question for Gary. You guys are getting some traction in etch, especially on the 3D NAND side. Can your current etch tools actually do 96 or 128 layer 3D NAND, or do you need to develop new tools? We're just trying to figure out the R&D profile on etch or SSG like two years down the road.

知道了。知道了。然後，我還有一個後續問題要問加里。你們在蝕刻領域取得了一些進展，尤其是在 3D NAND 方面。你們目前的蝕刻工具真的可以製作 96 層或 128 層 3D NAND 嗎？還是需要開發新的工具？我們只是想弄清楚未來兩年內蝕刻或SSG的研發規劃。

Sure. So let me first, also add to Bob's comments on display, and then I'll get to etch. So I really think it's important for people to understand, we're in the early innings of this opportunity, in terms of the OLED wave. And relative to the questions on sustainability, if you look at the waves that are really driving our business in display, NAND, China, we're in the early innings of all of those different waves.

當然。首先，讓我補充一下鮑伯對展覽的評論，然後我再進行蝕刻。所以我認為，人們必須明白，就OLED浪潮而言，我們還處於這個機會的早期階段。至於永續性議題，如果你看看真正推動我們業務發展的浪潮，例如顯示器、NAND快閃記憶體、中國市場，我們正處於所有這些不同浪潮的早期階段。

We are continuing to invest, and we've expanded our TAM by factor of 3. We have an opportunity to expand our TAM more in the future. So that one, really very optimistic that we are going to continue to drive significant growth in display going forward.

我們持續投資，並將潛在市場規模擴大了3倍。未來我們還有機會進一步擴大潛在市場規模。因此，我們非常樂觀地認為，未來顯示器業務將繼續顯著成長。

And then, in etch, we're in a very strong position in etch, to gain share in 2016 and beyond.

然後，在蝕刻領域，我們處於非常有利的地位，預計在 2016 年及以後獲得市場份額。

As I've said before, the products that we have, Sym3, selective material removal products, it's almost on a weekly basis I hear new opportunities, very strong pull, across the board, all customers for these new technologies. And so, relative to 96 pairs or over 100 pairs, we have pull from customers in some of the most critical applications. We're PTOR, DTOR, in some of the most critical applications. So I'm extremely optimistic that we're going continue to gain share in etch in 2016 and beyond.

正如我之前所說，我們擁有的產品，Sym3，選擇性材料去除產品，幾乎每週我都會聽到新的商機，這些新技術在所有客戶群中都擁有非常強勁的需求。因此，相對於 96 對或 100 多對產品，我們在一些最關鍵的應用領域獲得了客戶的青睞。我們在一些最關鍵的應用領域中使用了 PTOR 和 DTOR。所以我非常樂觀地認為，我們在 2016 年及以後將繼續擴大在蝕刻領域的市佔率。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

喬摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thank you. I wonder if you could give us an idea of the puts and takes on gross margin in the back half? I would think that the ramp of display, and CVD and etch, and the mix shift towards memory and all, would be sort of headwinds in gross margin. Just any way we should think about that?

偉大的。謝謝。我想知道您能否為我們介紹一下下半年毛利率的預期走勢？我認為顯示器、CVD和蝕刻製程的普及，以及向記憶體等產品的組合轉變，都會對毛利率造成不利影響。我們該從哪個角度來考慮這個問題呢？

Sure. That's a good question. We are working a lot on gross margins. Let me give you -- we ran an analysis the other day, you might find interesting.

當然。這是個好問題。我們正在大力提升毛利率。我幫你介紹一下——我們前幾天做了一項分析，你可能會感興趣。

So the Company gross margins as you know were 40.9% in 2012, 42.1% in 2013, and 44.1% in 2014. And then we went down a little bit around 43% last year I think, and we'll probably be about the same the next year. I guess, we were 42.9% last year.

如您所知，該公司2012年的毛利率為40.9%，2013年為42.1%，2014年為44.1%。然後，去年我們下降了大約 43%，我想明年可能也會差不多。我猜，我們去年是 42.9%。

And so, I say, well, are we making any traction or not? So I had the guys run all of our BUs, in all of our segments, with current gross margins by BU and segment with 2014 mix. And if you take the 2014 mix, when we earned 44.1%, the gross margins this year would be 44.7% which is up 0.6 from then, and north of our committed model of 44.6%.

所以，我想說，我們到底有沒有任何進展呢？所以我讓團隊成員運行我們所有業務單位、所有業務板塊的當前毛利率，並採用 2014 年的組合資料。如果以 2014 年的毛利率為基準，當時我們的毛利率為 44.1%，那麼今年的毛利率將達到 44.7%，比當時提高了 0.6%，並且高於我們承諾的 44.6% 的目標。

So what you see is, within virtually all of the product groups, and within exercises like cost reduction and negotiation, we're doing pretty well actually. And it is in fact mix that's the challenge for us.

所以你可以看到，在幾乎所有產品組以及成本削減和談判等措施中，我們實際上都做得相當不錯。事實上，混合比例才是我們面臨的挑戰。

So I do think that, as I said earlier, for instance, display has a similar operating margin to the Company, but lower gross margins. In etch, we're doing great in terms of growing profitability and market share, but with a little lower gross margin also at this stage.

所以我認為，正如我之前所說，例如，顯示器業務的營業利潤率與公司業務相似，但毛利率較低。在蝕刻領域，我們在提高獲利能力和市場佔有率方面做得非常出色，但現階段的毛利率也略低一些。

So those are headwinds in our face this year. But we think we'll offset them, and still hit the roughly 43% on the year, that we said earlier in the year.

所以，這些都是我們今年面臨的不利因素。但我們認為我們可以抵消這些影響，並且仍然能夠達到我們年初所說的全年約 43% 的目標。

Okay. And can you give us some idea of how much different the display gross margins might be just qualitatively? And does that change, when you are at 3 times the run rate that you've been?

好的。您能否僅從定性角度，大致說明顯示器毛利率的差異可能有多大？當你的運行速度達到之前的3倍時，情況會改變嗎？

Yes, we haven't gone into that level of detail. We think over time, the gross and operating margins in display will trend up, but we haven't been specific on the numbers.

是的，我們還沒有深入到那種程度。我們認為隨著時間的推移，顯示器的毛利率和營業利率將會上升，但我們還沒有給出具體的數字。

Great. Thank you very much. Great quarter.

偉大的。非常感謝。很棒的季度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Hey, guys. Great job on the quarter, the execution and the strong guide. Given the pricing environment in DRAM, there seems to be more pressure on your DRAM customers to move to the 1X nanometer node. So I guess, the question here is, are you starting to see some of the early spending for 1X in your second half pipeline, and how do you see DRAM spend second half versus first half?

嘿，夥計們。本季表現出色，執行到位，指導方針有力。鑑於 DRAM 的定價環境，您的 DRAM 客戶似乎面臨更大的壓力，需要轉向 1X 奈米節點。所以我想問的是，您是否開始看到下半年 1X 的一些早期支出？您認為 DRAM 在下半年的支出與上半年相比如何？

I will start, Gary can jump in if he wants. We think DRAM was front end loaded, first half loaded on the calendar year, softer in the second half. In terms of our outlook for DRAM specifically, we think it's stronger in the first half than the second half. We hear speculation about some of that early spend on DRAM, but it's not in our line of sight yet.

我先開始，加里如果想加入也可以。我們認為DRAM市場呈現前期強勁、上半年強勁的態勢，下半年則有所放緩的趨勢。就我們對DRAM的展望而言，我們認為其上半年表現強於下半年。我們聽說有人猜測早期在DRAM上投入了一些資金，但這目前還不在我們的視線範圍內。

Got it. Thanks for those insights. And then, on OLED, the team obviously has been talking about the 3 to 4 times increase in dollar opportunity, versus some of the silicon. You've also on this call have been talking about some new tools that can even drive further increase in your OLED SAM opportunity, thin-film encapsulation was a good example of that.

知道了。感謝您提供的這些見解。然後，在 OLED 方面，該團隊顯然一直在討論與某些矽相比，OLED 帶來的美元機會增加 3 到 4 倍。在這次電話會議上，您也談到了一些可以進一步增加 OLED SAM 機會的新工具，薄膜封裝就是一個很好的例子。

So I guess, the question here is, are you guys already sampling some of these new tools? And when should we hear about formal introduction of these tools, and when could they start to add to your revenue streams?

所以我想問的是，你們是否已經在試用這些新工具了？我們何時才能聽到這些工具正式推出的消息？它們何時才能開始為您的收入來源增加收入？

Thanks for the question. So you mentioned thin-film encapsulation. And certainly, that's a great example of materials engineering enabling new capabilities for our customers and also growth for Applied. So as you said, we talked about that being a great opportunity. And that's part of what we're seeing in terms of a very, very strong opportunity in display.

謝謝你的提問。你剛才提到了薄膜封裝。當然，這正是材料工程為我們的客戶帶來新功能，並為應用材料公司帶來成長的絕佳例證。正如你所說，我們討論過這是一個絕佳的機會。這就是我們看到的展示領域蘊藏的巨大機會的一部分。

We do have other areas that we're working on, but we're not really ready to forecast or signal when those technologies will be ready. But I would say that, that team in display is an incredible team of people. They've demonstrated that they can grow in these major inflections. And I'm very optimistic that this wave that we are seeing in display, OLED, is a multi-year wave.

我們確實還有其他領域正在研究，但我們目前還無法預測或透露這些技術何時能夠成熟。但我認為，這支參賽隊伍是一支非常優秀的隊伍。他們已經證明，他們能夠在這些重大轉折點上成長。我非常樂觀地認為，我們在顯示技術（尤其是 OLED）領域看到的這波浪潮將會持續多年。

And then, I really believe that we have a great opportunity, to not only ride that wave, but expand our TAM and share in display. So very, very optimistic about that business.

而且，我真的相信我們擁有一個巨大的機會，不僅可以乘著這股浪潮，還可以擴大我們的潛在市場規模，並在展示領域佔有一席之地。我對這家公司非常非常樂觀。

And I'll just pile on. The team has done a great job, number one. Number two, the market is going to grow for a while, and our ability to capture with products we're still pushing down the pipe, and look very optimistic on, is going to grow. So served addressable market looks good too.

我也來湊熱鬧。第一，團隊做得非常出色。第二，市場將持續成長一段時間，我們憑藉仍在研發中的產品（我們對此非常樂觀）來獲取市場份額的能力也將不斷提高。因此，可觸及的目標市場看起來也不錯。

Thanks, Gary. Thanks, Bob.

謝謝你，加里。謝謝你，鮑伯。

Atif Malik, Citigroup.

阿提夫·馬利克，花旗集團。

Hi, thanks for taking my question, and good job on the quarter. If I look at your foundry orders for -- the last six quarters have declined on a year-over-year basis. And I'm just trying to reconcile that with your expectations of second half being better for foundry. And given that TSMC said on their call that 10 nanometer could be a shorter demand node, as their customers taping out more products for the 7 nanometer, so I'm just trying to understand the risk in the second half foundry expectations. Is it more China-weighted or Tier 1 foundry weighted? And then, I have a follow-up.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題，這季做得非常棒。如果我看一下你們的鑄造訂單——過去六個季度同比均有所下降。我只是想把這一點與你對鑄造廠下半年業績會更好的預期調和起來。鑑於台積電在電話會議上表示，10 奈米製程的需求節點可能較短，因為他們的客戶正在為 7 奈米製程生產更多產品，所以我只是想了解下半年代工預期中的風險。是中國廠商佔比更高，還是一級代工廠佔比更高？然後，我還有一個後續問題。

You've got three questions buried in there: annual trend, going back a few years, the half this year, and a little bit projection into next year. So if you look at the trend data, you are correct, that total foundry spending from 2014 was down to 2015, down sort of flat up a little bit in 2016. I don't have 2013 in front of me. I think it was similar to -- well, here is 2013. That's not totals though. Oh, there it is. 2013 was -- it was about the same.

這裡麵包含了三個問題：年度趨勢（回顧過去幾年）、今年上半年的情況，以及明年的預測。所以，如果你查看趨勢數據，你的說法是正確的，2014 年的代工廠總支出下降到 2015 年，2016 年基本上持平，略有回升。我面前沒有2013年的資料。我覺得它和──嗯，現在是2013年。但這並不是總數。哦，找到了。2013年——情況也差不多。

So 2013, 2014 about the same, down a little bit 2015, down a little bit 2016, so that's the annual trend.

所以 2013 年、2014 年基本上持平，2015 年略有下降，2016 年略有下降，這就是年度趨勢。

If you look at the year, we're pretty confident that foundry is strong in the second half, based on the timing and the specifics of it. Now what you have going on, which is a little different then, a lot of people concerned about the dynamic of, what happened in 2014 going to 2015, and what could happen in 2016 going into 2017.

從全年來看，根據時間節點和具體情況來看，我們相當有信心鑄造業在下半年會表現強勁。現在的情況與之前略有不同，許多人都在關注 2014 年至 2015 年發生的事情，以及 2016 年至 2017 年可能發生的事情。

So if you go look at 2014, when we turn down to 2015, you had a latent excess capacity, right? You had 28 nanometer business had been purchased a year or two before capacity for a big phone manufacturer. And then a lot of the capacity was added very aggressively in 2014 for 20 [nan rated] for the same phone customer. So you had latent potential capacity there that hit us in 2015. And that also hit us a little bit with another foundry customer who thought they could get some of the business.

所以，如果你看看 2014 年，再看看 2015 年，你會發現有潛在的過剩產能，對吧？你擁有的 28 奈米製程產能，是在一兩年前被一家大型手機製造商收購的。然後在 2014 年，針對同一手機用戶，以 20 奈米額定容量大幅增加了大量容量。所以，你們在那裡存在著潛在的能力，而這種能力在 2015 年給了我們沉重一擊。這件事也讓我們對另一家鑄造廠客戶產生了一些影響，他們原本以為可以分到一些生意。

You don't have the same type of dynamic this year, because you're in the very early stages of the build of 10, 7, to the overbuild you had from the previous nodes, say 28 in this case. You really don't have that as much from 2014 to 2016. And thirdly, they haven't ramped that much on 10 at this point. In 2014, at the end of 2014, they had about 100,000 wafer starts, total installed, of 20. At the end of this year, on 10 alone, they might have 50,000, right? Well, 10 and 7 would be 55,000 maybe or 60,000.

今年的情況與往年不同，因為你們還處於建設的早期階段，從先前的節點（例如本例中的 28 個節點）到 10、7 個節點的超額建設。從 2014 年到 2016 年，這種情況並不多見。第三，他們目前還沒有大力發展第 10 部作品。2014 年末，他們總共安裝了 20 台晶圓廠，晶圓啟動次數約 10 萬次。今年年底，光是10月份，他們就可能有50,000個，對吧？嗯，10加7可能是55000或60000。

So you're in the early stages. So one, it's been trending down over the years, yes, partly because of this capacity issue there. And two, as you know phone growth is little bit down.

所以你們還處於早期階段。所以，第一，這些年來它一直呈下降趨勢，是的，部分原因是那裡的產能問題。其次，如你所知，手機用戶成長速度略有下降。

Second though, is the second half good this year? Yes, it is, because we can see it.

其次，今年下半年的比賽怎麼樣？是的，因為我們能看到它。

Third, do we have this big capacity issue next year? Not so much, because it's different. And related to that, an unusually high amount of spending in foundry this year is at 40 and above, and 28 is pretty strong because of the China phenomenon. So I think, catching it all on the foundry floor is the China phenomenon is adding to foundry floor.

第三，明年我們是否還會面臨這麼大的產能問題？並非如此，因為情況不同。與此相關的是，今年鑄造業的支出異常高，達到 40 美元及以上，而 28 美元也相當強勁，這都得益於中國市場的表現。所以我認為，中國現象加劇了鑄造車間的困境。

Thanks. Very helpful. As a follow up, is your ability to ship or revenue display, it could then be constrained by other display makers' ability to capacity ramp? For example, we have heard of some of [operations] tools might not be able to ramp capacity as quickly as the market is demanding.

謝謝。很有幫助。作為後續問題，您的出貨能力或收入展示能力可能會受到其他顯示器製造商產能提升能力的限制？例如，我們聽說某些[營運]工具可能無法像市場需求那樣迅速提升產能。

I think right now, it's independent of that.

我認為目前這與此無關。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Weston Twigg, Pacific Crest.

韋斯頓·特威格，太平洋山脊。

Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just wonder if you could help us understand, as the 3D NAND customers migrate from adding some greenfield capacity this year to more planar NAND conversions. Can you give us an idea of what your revenue opportunity is, maybe per 10,000 wafer starts of greenfield 3D NAND, versus planar conversion 3D NAND capacity?

是的，你好。謝謝您回答我的問題。想請您幫忙了解一下，隨著 3D NAND 客戶今年從新增一些新產能轉向更多地進行平面 NAND 轉換，情況如何？您能否簡要介紹一下您的收入機會，例如每 10,000 片全新 3D NAND 晶圓的開工量，與平面轉換 3D NAND 產能相比？

Sure. So this is confusing as hell, so I am going to try and make it half confusing as hell. So I'm going to give you a really simple numbers first.

當然。這真是太令人困惑了，所以我打算讓它變得不那麼令人困惑。所以我先跟你講一些很簡單的數字。

So in 2012, total NAND spending was $4.2 billion. We think total NAND spending this year is $9.2 billion. Applied Materials' share of that spending in 2012 was little under 15%. Applied Materials' share of that spending is over 20% this year.

因此，2012 年 NAND 的總支出為 42 億美元。我們認為今年 NAND 的總支出將達到 92 億美元。2012年，應用材料公司在該項支出中所佔份額略低於15%。今年，應用材料公司在該支出中所佔份額超過 20%。

So our revenues are going to go from about $600 million in NAND in 2012, to close to $2 billion this year, okay? So the market has more than doubled, but our revenues have more than tripled, okay, because our share is up 50%, okay?

所以，我們的 NAND 收入將從 2012 年的約 6 億美元成長到今年的近 20 億美元，明白嗎？所以市場規模翻了一番還多，但我們的收入翻了兩番還多，好吧，因為我們的市佔率成長了 50%，好吧？

The next observation I'll give you is, if you compare greenfield to greenfield -- I'm happy to do that for you: a 100,000 wafer start, last plane or greenfield, is $3.5 billion. A 3D greenfield 48 pair is $5 billion. But what you have to model is, well, what were they actually buying?

接下來我要說的是，如果將新建項目與新建項目進行比較——我很樂意為您這樣做：一個擁有 10 萬片晶圓的新建項目，無論是最後一塊晶圓廠還是新建項目，都需要 35 億美元。48個3D綠地項目價值50億美元。但你需要建立的模型是，他們實際購買的是什麼？

So in 2012, there was a mix of adds and converts, right? And so, if you go look at the data, it was actually fair amount of adds oddly enough in 2012. But for us, as a Company, we mostly were getting the shrink money. Most of that spending was more weighted on converts for litho.

所以 2012 年，廣告投放和轉換流量是混合的，對吧？所以，如果你去查看數據，你會發現，奇怪的是，2012 年的廣告投放量其實相當可觀。但對我們公司而言，我們主要得到的是損耗賠償金。這些支出大部分都集中在膠印技術的轉換。

So if you go look at it, and you go to a 50/50 model now roughly, between converts from planar and 3D, our revenue opportunity for where we were in the planar world is up more than 3X. And the simple math of what's going on, it was 3X. And you'll say, well, Bob, it should be even more, because the total spending is up.

所以，如果你去看一下，現在平面用戶和 3D 用戶的比例大致為 50/50，那麼我們相對於平面用戶的收入機會已經成長了 3 倍以上。簡單計算一下，結果是 3 倍。你會說，鮑勃，這應該更多才對，因為總支出增加了。

It will be -- it would be more, but there was unusually high spending on planar adds in 2012. So our revenue opportunity, apples-to-apples is kind of over 3X.

將會是－本來會更多，但 2012 年平面設備新增支出異常高。因此，在同等條件下，我們的收入機會大約是原來的 3 倍以上。

All right. I think I got all that.

好的。我想我都明白了。

So that was the half confusing story I've rehearsed five times. (laughter).

這就是我排練了五次的那個有點讓人摸不著頭腦的故事。（笑聲）。

All right. Good. And the other piece of the question is, or the follow-up question is, how much 3D NAND capacity do you think the industry can realistically absorb each year, without flooding the market with 3D NAND bits, since you get more bits on a wafer?

好的。好的。問題的另一部分，或者說後續問題是，您認為業界每年實際能夠吸收多少 3D NAND 產能，而不會讓 3D NAND 晶片充斥市場，因為晶圓上可以容納更多的晶片位？

Well what's going to happen is that I believe, and I think many people believe that, as 3D NAND matures, and becomes even more reliable, and reduces its cost point, particularly as you go to 48 and 64 layers, it's going to significantly expand its addressable market, so you're going to get growth in solid state disk drives. So right now, you have -- I think last, you had 1,394,000 wafer starts in the world of NAND, and through the end of last year it was 150,000 converted; the end of this year is about 375,000. I think the vast majority of it's going to get converted over time, because they're not to be able to sell that 2D NAND device very well, because it's not going to be competitive.

我認為，而且許多人也認為，隨著 3D NAND 技術的成熟，其可靠性不斷提高，成本不斷降低，特別是當層數達到 48 層和 64 層時，其潛在市場將會顯著擴大，因此固態硬碟市場將會成長。所以現在，我認為去年全球 NAND 晶圓開工量為 139.4 萬片，到去年年底已完成 15 萬片；今年年底約為 37.5 萬片。我認為絕大多數產品最終都會被轉換，因為他們無法很好地銷售 2D NAND 設備，因為它沒有競爭力。

One other thing I would add, on 3D NAND overall, our position in 3D NAND is really better than any other company. If you look at our strength in etch, the share gains will become evident this year, very, very strong. We're number one in deposition. We have additional CMP steps, epi steps.

我還要補充一點，就 3D NAND 整體而言，我們在 3D NAND 領域的地位確實比其他任何公司都要好。如果你看看我們在蝕刻領域的實力，今年的市佔率成長將會非常非常明顯。我們在取證方面排名第一。我們還有額外的 CMP 步驟和 epi 步驟。

So again, you look at our opportunity in 3D NAND, really we're in a unique position. So as those greenfield factories ramp or the conversions happen, if you look at the spending profile, the spending profile is completely different than it was at 2D NAND, and very, very favorable for Applied.

所以再說一遍，看看我們在 3D NAND 領域的機遇，我們確實處於一個獨特的地位。因此，隨著這些新建廠產能提升或改造完成，如果你看一下支出狀況，你會發現支出狀況與 2D NAND 時期完全不同，而且對 Applied 來說非常非常有利。

The funny thing, you wouldn't intuitively say, is that in 2D, our market share of conversions was less than our market share of adds, because it was mostly litho-enabled. They just bought litho tools.

有趣的是，你可能不會直覺地意識到，在 2D 領域，我們的轉換市場份額低於我們的廣告市場份額，因為 2D 主要依靠膠印技術。他們剛買了石印工具。

If you go to VNAND, our market share is high in adds, but even higher in converts, because they don't have to buy new litho, okay? So if they go to a convert model, the total TAM goes down, but our share is pretty good actually.

如果你選擇 VNAND，我們在廣告投放方面的市佔率很高，但在轉換率方面更高，因為他們不需要購買新的光刻技術，懂嗎？所以如果他們採用轉換率模式，總潛在市場規模就會下降，但我們的市佔率其實相當不錯。

All right. Makes sense. Thank you.

好的。有道理。謝謝。

Thank you, West. And we've got time for just one more question, please.

謝謝你，韋斯特。我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Jerome Ramel, Exane BNP Paribas.

傑羅姆·拉梅爾 (Jerome Ramel)，法國巴黎銀行 Exane。

Thank you for taking my question. Could you just give us a little bit of color on your traction in ALD?

感謝您回答我的問題。能否簡單介紹一下您在ALD領域的進展？

Yes, we have very strong momentum with ALD, and we're pretty much on track with what we've previously communicated, very strong position in leading logic and foundry customers. They're seeing device advantages, as they're going to the most advanced technology nodes. So we look at this as a really good opportunity, one of the areas that will fuel our share gains in 2016.

是的，我們在 ALD 方面發展勢頭非常強勁，而且我們基本上按照先前公佈的計劃進行，在領先的邏輯晶片和代工客戶中佔據了非常強大的地位。他們看到了設備優勢，因為他們正在採用最先進的技術節點。因此，我們認為這是一個非常好的機會，也是推動我們在 2016 年市場佔有率成長的領域之一。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, great. So Jerome, thank you for your question. We would like to thank everyone for joining us this afternoon. A replay of this call will be available on our website, beginning at 5 PM Pacific Time today. And thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的，太好了。傑羅姆，謝謝你的提問。感謝各位今天下午蒞臨。本次電話會議的錄音重播將於今天太平洋時間下午 5 點起在我們的網站上提供。感謝您一直以來對應用材料公司的關注。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。