應用材料 (AMAT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加應用程式材料公司收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好，感謝您參加應用材料公司 2023 財年第四季財報電話會議。與我一起的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson；以及我們的財務長布萊斯希爾 (Brice Hill)。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q filing with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的資訊包含在應用程式材料公司最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on our website at ir.appliedmaterials.com. Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. On Tuesday evening, December 12, Applied will lead a panel on the future of logic near the IEDM Conference in San Francisco. Joining us will be leading technology executives from Intel, Samsung and TSMC, along with Google, Qualcomm, Synopsys and the EV Group. There won't be a webcast, so we hope you'll join us in San Francisco.

今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。 GAAP 衡量標準的調整可在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益資料中找到，這些資料可在我們的網站 ir.appliedmaterials.com 上找到。在我們開始之前，我有一個日曆公告。 12 月 12 日星期二晚上，應用材料公司將在舊金山舉行的 IEDM 會議附近主持一個關於邏輯未來的小組討論。加入我們的將包括來自英特爾、三星和台積電以及谷歌、高通、新思科技和 EV Group 的領先技術高管。不會有網路廣播，所以我們希望您能在舊金山加入我們。

And with that introduction, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

介紹完畢後，我想將電話轉給加里·迪克森。

Thank you, Mike. Before we begin, I'd like to speak briefly about Israel. As many of you know, Applied Materials has had a significant presence in Israel for nearly 30 years. We were shocked by the terrorist attacks of October 7 and the outbreak of war with it's a measurable suffering and loss. Our team in Israel is proving their resilience at this dangerous time and Applied Materials is committed to do our part to help our families stay safe until more peaceful conditions return.

謝謝你，麥克。在開始之前，我想先簡單談談以色列。正如許多人所知，應用材料公司在以色列的影響力已近 30 年。我們對 10 月 7 日的恐怖攻擊和戰爭的爆發感到震驚，造成了巨大的痛苦和損失。我們在以色列的團隊正在證明他們在這個危險時刻的韌性，應用材料公司致力於盡自己的一份力量來幫助我們的家人保持安全，直到情況恢復更加和平。

Now, turning to our results. We delivered a strong finish to fiscal 2023 with record earnings in our fourth quarter and record revenue, earnings and cash flow for the year as a whole. I would like to recognize the hard work and commitment of our global team to deliver these outstanding results.

現在，轉向我們的結果。我們以強勁的業績結束了 2023 財年，第四季獲利創歷史新高，全年營收、獲利和現金流也創歷史新高。我要對我們的全球團隊為取得這些出色成果而付出的辛勤工作和承諾表示認可。

As this is our year-end call, I'll begin my prepared remarks by reviewing our performance and key accomplishments over the past 12 months. I'll then talk about our longer-term growth thesis for the industry and Applied before concluding with our outlook and priorities for 2024.

由於這是我們的年終電話會議，我將首先回顧我們過去 12 個月的表現和主要成就。然後，我將討論我們對該行業和應用材料公司的長期成長主題，然後結束我們對 2024 年的展望和優先事項。

While semiconductor and wafer fabrication equipment spending were both down in 2023, Applied was able to demonstrate the strength of our broad portfolio as well as the central role we play, enabling major industry inflections. Our Semiconductor Systems business delivered mid-single-digit growth for the fiscal year and remains on track for growth in calendar 2023, which will be the fifth consecutive year that we've outperformed the wafer fab equipment market.

儘管 2023 年半導體和晶圓製造設備支出均有所下降，但應用材料公司仍能夠展示我們廣泛產品組合的實力以及我們所發揮的核心作用，從而實現重大行業轉變。我們的半導體系統業務在本財年實現了中個位數成長，並在 2023 年繼續保持成長勢頭，這將是我們連續第五年跑贏晶圓廠設備市場。

We believe we can sustain this outperformance over the coming years, thanks to the leadership positions we've established at the major technology inflections that will enable our customers' road maps.

我們相信，我們能夠在未來幾年保持這種優異的表現，這要歸功於我們在重大技術變革中建立的領導地位，這將使我們的客戶的路線圖成為可能。

In the past 12 months, many of our business units delivered new records and major milestones, including etch, where we passed 10,000 shipments of our Sym3 chamber. We also released new products and secured incremental production tool of record positions and gate-all-around, backside power delivery, patterning, advanced DRAM and high-bandwidth memory and heterogeneous integration.

在過去 12 個月中，我們的許多業務部門都創造了新記錄和重大里程碑，其中包括 etch，我們的 Sym3 腔室出貨量突破了 10,000 件。我們還發布了新產品，並獲得了記錄位置和環柵、背面供電、圖案化、先進 DRAM 和高頻寬記憶體以及異質整合的增量生產工具。

At the same time, we strengthened our ICAPS business that serves IoT, communications, auto, power and sensor customers with new products and application wins in etch, epitaxy, implant as well as metrology and inspection.

同時，我們加強了 ICAPS 業務，為物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器客戶提供新產品和在蝕刻、外延、植入以及計量和檢測方面的應用勝利。

In services, we delivered low single-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2023, overcoming headwinds and including lower fab utilization rates and trade restrictions. In this period, our total installed base increased 5%. In fact, our installed base of process chambers is now more than twice as big as our nearest competitor.

在服務領域，我們克服了晶圓廠利用率較低和貿易限制等不利因素，在 2023 財年實現了低個位數的收入成長。在此期間，我們的總安裝量增加了 5%。事實上，我們的處理室安裝基數現在是最接近的競爭對手的兩倍多。

In addition, there are more than 14,000 tools that are not chamber-based including CMP, implant, and metrology and inspection. We grew the number of tools under long-term subscription agreements, which now generate 63% of our total parts and service revenues. We also maintained the renewal rate of these subscriptions at 90%.

此外，還有超過 14,000 種非腔室工具，包括 CMP、植入以及計量和檢查。我們增加了長期訂閱協議下的工具數量，這些工具目前占我們零件和服務總收入的 63%。我們也將這些訂閱的續訂率維持在 90%。

In 2023, we continue to focus on our operations and supply chain, and we've made significant and sustainable improvements. Compared to this time last year, we are providing customers with better on-time delivery and shipment quality while normalizing our inventory levels.

2023年，我們將繼續專注於營運和供應鏈，並取得了重大且可持續的改進。與去年同期相比，我們為客戶提供了更好的準時交貨和發貨質量，同時使我們的庫存水準正常化。

More importantly, our operations are ready to scale as the industry grows over the years to come. Across the company, we're in a great position to enable our customer success and profitably grow Applied Materials as this next era of industry expansion take shape.

更重要的是，隨著產業未來幾年的發展，我們的業務已準備好擴大規模。隨著下一個產業擴張時代的形成，整個公司都處於有利地位，能夠幫助客戶取得成功並實現應用材料公司的獲利成長。

Looking to the future, there are four key components of our growth thesis. First, we believe that semiconductors will outgrow GDP and as the digital transformation of the global economy progresses. Second, we expect the market for wafer fab equipment to grow as fast or faster than the market for semiconductors. This is because the industry road map is becoming more complex and chip makers need to deploy more technology to move from 1 node to the next. Third, we believe that Applied will outperform wafer fab equipment because the key technology inflections are enabled by materials science and materials engineering where Applied has the broadest, most connected and most enabling portfolio of solutions. And fourth, we believe we can grow our service business as fast or faster than our equipment business by providing customers with advanced service solutions that accelerate technology transfer from R&D to high-volume manufacturing and optimize device performance, yield and cost in their fabs.

展望未來，我們的成長主題有四個關鍵組成部分。首先，我們相信，隨著全球經濟數位轉型的進展，半導體的成長將超過GDP。其次，我們預期晶圓廠設備市場的成長速度將與半導體市場一樣快，甚至更快。這是因為產業路線圖變得越來越複雜，晶片製造商需要部署更多技術才能從一個節點轉移到下一個節點。第三，我們相信應用材料公司將超越晶圓廠設備，因為關鍵技術的轉變是由材料科學和材料工程實現的，其中應用材料公司擁有最廣泛、最互聯和最有能力的解決方案組合。第四，我們相信，透過為客戶提供先進的服務解決方案，加速從研發到大批量製造的技術轉移，並優化工廠的設備性能、產量和成本，我們可以以與設備業務一樣快或更快的速度發展我們的服務業務。

By identifying major industry inflections early and making strategic multiyear investments in our product portfolio and capabilities, Applied Materials is best positioned to benefit from this exciting period of industry innovation and growth. We have, by far, the broadest portfolio of unit process technology to address our customers' high-value problems in transistor, interconnect, 3D memory, specialty devices and heterogeneous integration.

透過及早識別主要產業拐點並對我們的產品組合和能力進行多年策略投資，應用材料公司最有能力從這個令人興奮的產業創新和成長時期受益。迄今為止，我們擁有最廣泛的單元製程技術組合，可解決客戶在電晶體、互連、3D 記憶體、專用元件和異質整合方面的高價值問題。

We're able to combine these technologies in unique ways to create co-optimized and integrated solutions, and we are seeing strong pull from our customers to work on higher-value module and device integration problems.

我們能夠以獨特的方式結合這些技術來創建協同優化的整合解決方案，並且我們看到客戶對解決更高價值的模組和設備整合問題的強烈推動。

At no time in our history have we been closer to our customers. We have built a unique platform collaborative innovation and commercialization of next-generation technologies. We will significantly expand this collaboration platform with EPIC enabling Applied and our partners to innovate the way we innovate. And our advanced technology-enabled service offerings are seen by customers as increasingly valuable, especially during technology transfer and fab ramp. These advanced services also provide growing subscription revenue streams for Applied.

在我們的歷史上，我們從未如此貼近客戶。我們建立了一個獨特的下一代技術協作創新和商業化平台。我們將與 EPIC 一起大幅擴展這項合作平台，使應用材料公司和我們的合作夥伴能夠以我們的創新方式進行創新。我們的先進技術支援的服務產品被客戶視為越來越有價值，特別是在技術轉移和晶圓廠擴建期間。這些先進的服務也為應用材料公司提供了不斷成長的訂閱收入來源。

Moving to our near-term outlook and priorities for the year ahead. While we are mindful of the complex macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, we see demand for Applied's products remaining robust with some changes within the mix. In 2024, we expect demand from our leading-edge foundry logic customers to be stronger year-on-year underpinned by higher PC, cloud, and AI data center spending as well as the initial build-out of gate-all-around nodes.

轉向我們的近期展望和未來一年的優先事項。雖然我們注意到複雜的宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境，但我們看到對應用材料公司產品的需求仍然強勁，但產品組合發生了一些變化。到 2024 年，我們預計，在 PC、雲端和人工智慧資料中心支出增加以及全閘極節點初步建設的支撐下，我們領先的代工邏輯客戶的需求將比去年同期更加強勁。

We see demand for our ICAPS business being lower, mainly due to softness in the industrial automation and automotive end markets. In DRAM, both pricing and utilization are improving for our customers and we see demand for Applied's products remaining strong. And we believe NAND spending will be up year-on-year, but still far below 2022, and less than 10% of wafer fab equipment spending overall. We expect NAND to remain a lower percentage of the wafer fab equipment mix moving forward.

我們認為 ICAPS 業務的需求較低，主要是由於工業自動化和汽車終端市場的疲軟。在 DRAM 領域，我們的客戶的定價和利用率都在改善，我們看到對應用材料公司產品的需求仍然強勁。我們認為 NAND 支出將年增，但仍遠低於 2022 年，且不到晶圓廠設備支出總體的 10%。我們預計 NAND 在晶圓廠設備組合中所佔的比例將繼續保持較低水準。

In terms of the global trade environment, the October 2023, and export control rule changes in the U.S. were primarily focused on alignment with other countries. The rules are complex, and while we are working with the government to clarify certain details, we see no incremental material impact to Applied at this time. As I look ahead, I strongly believe that Applied Materials has the right capabilities, strategy and partnerships.

從全球貿易環境來看，2023年10月美國的出口管制規則變化主要是為了與其他國家保持一致。這些規則很複雜，雖然我們正在與政府合作澄清某些細節，但目前我們認為不會對應用材料公司產生實質的增量影響。展望未來，我堅信應用材料公司擁有正確的能力、策略和合作關係。

In fiscal 2024, our major focus areas include driving R&D programs to further differentiate our portfolio and extend our leadership as the key inflections that enable future industry growth, continuing to make operational and supply chain improvements to better serve customers, capture economies of scale, and drive productivity across the enterprise and ensuring that as we scale the company, we continue to reduce our environmental impact in line with Applied's collaborative net-zero playbook as announced earlier this year.

2024 財年，我們的主要重點領域包括推動研發計劃，以進一步差異化我們的產品組合併擴大我們的領導地位，將其作為實現未來產業成長的關鍵拐點；繼續改進營運和供應鏈，以更好地服務客戶；實現規模經濟；以及提高整個企業的生產力，並確保隨著公司規模的擴大，我們繼續按照應用材料公司今年早些時候宣布的協作淨零行動手冊減少對環境的影響。

Before I hand over to Brice, let me summarize. In fiscal 2023, Applied grew our semiconductor equipment and service businesses, even though our markets were down year-on-year. For calendar 2023, we're on track to outperform the wafer fab equipment market for the fifth year in a row. We believe this outperformance is sustainable, thanks to our strong positions at all the key industry inflections, the strength of our customer collaborations and growing demand for our advanced services.

在我把任務交給布萊斯之前，讓我先總結一下。 2023 財年，儘管我們的市場年減，應用材料公司仍實現了半導體設備和服務業務的成長。到 2023 年，我們可望連續第五年跑贏晶圓廠設備市場。我們相信，這種優異的業績是可持續的，這要歸功於我們在所有關鍵行業拐點中的強勢地位、我們與客戶的合作實力以及對我們先進服務不斷增長的需求。

And we remain positive about our long-term growth opportunities where we expect semiconductors to grow faster than GDP, wafer fab equipment to grow as fast or faster than semiconductors, Applied to outperform the wafer fab equipment market and our service business to grow as fast or faster than equipment sales.

我們對長期成長機會的樂觀，我們預計半導體的成長速度將快於GDP，晶圓製造設備的成長速度將與半導體一樣快或更快，應用將超越晶圓製造設備市場，我們的服務業務將成長同樣快或更快比設備銷售還要快。

Now I'll hand over to Brice.

現在我將把任務交給布萊斯。

Thank you, Gary. I'd like to start by thanking our teams for delivering record results this year and for making sustainable operational improvements in our inventory management, manufacturing linearity and on-time delivery performance. On today's call, I'll summarize our results for the fiscal year and Q4 as well as provide our guidance for Q1.

謝謝你，加里。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊今年取得了創紀錄的業績，並在庫存管理、製造線性和準時交付績效方面做出了可持續的營運改進。在今天的電話會議上，我將總結我們本財年和第四季的業績，並提供第一季的指導。

Before going into the results, I'll share my perspective on our unique business model and how it creates attractive returns for our long-term shareholders. Applied creates value by directing nearly $3 billion of annualized R&D into one of the most important markets of the world, semiconductors. Because we have the broadest and deepest equipment portfolio and expertise, we are invited to work closely with our customers as a trusted partner to identify and holistically solve their most valuable technical challenges.

在討論結果之前，我將分享我對我們獨特的商業模式以及它如何為我們的長期股東創造有吸引力的回報的看法。應用材料公司透過將每年近 30 億美元的研發投入到世界上最重要的市場之一——半導體來創造價值。由於我們擁有最廣泛、最深入的設備組合和專業知識，因此我們被邀請作為值得信賴的合作夥伴與客戶密切合作，以確定並全面解決他們最有價值的技術挑戰。

Our R&D spending helps customers modify materials at atomic levels, and on an industrial scale to deliver better semiconductors and end products for strategic growth markets like artificial intelligence. Our unique relationships with our customers provide us with insights into end market and technology road map trends and allow us to focus our spending on projects that have a high probability of commercial adoption and strong financial returns.

我們的研發支出幫助客戶在原子層級和工業規模上修改材料，為人工智慧等策略性成長市場提供更好的半導體和最終產品。我們與客戶的獨特關係使我們能夠深入了解終端市場和技術路線圖趨勢，並使我們能夠將支出集中在商業採用可能性高且財務回報豐厚的項目上。

As a result of the R&D invested in our customer success, we now have line of sight to market share leadership and growth across the key semiconductor manufacturing inflections. including gate-all-around, backside power, heterogeneous integration, high-bandwidth memory and 3D DRAM.

由於我們為客戶的成功而進行的研發投資，我們現在能夠在關鍵的半導體製造拐點中佔據市場份額的領先地位和成長。包括環柵、背面電源、異質整合、高頻寬記憶體和 3D DRAM。

The strategies we use to help solve challenges in leading-edge logic and memory are also being deployed in the ICAPS markets, where our growth in 2023 more than offset weakness in NAND and leading-edge logic. ICAPS is also a strategic growth market fueled by powerful trends like edge computing and renewable energy.

我們用來幫助解決前沿邏輯和記憶體挑戰的策略也被部署在 ICAPS 市場，我們在 2023 年的成長足以抵消 NAND 和前沿邏輯的弱點。 ICAPS 也是一個策略性成長市場，受到邊緣運算和再生能源等強大趨勢的推動。

Applied's focused and effective R&D investments have led to fantastic results for our shareholders. Over the past 10 years, we've grown revenue at a compound rate of over 13%. Non-GAAP EPS at nearly 30%, and free cash flow at 33%. We've increased our quarterly dividend per share at a compound rate of more than 12% over this period. And earlier this year, we announced our belief that our free cash flow can support doubling our previous dividend per share over the next several years.

應用材料公司專注且有效的研發投資為我們的股東帶來了豐厚的回報。過去 10 年，我們的營收複合成長率超過 13%。非 GAAP 每股盈餘接近 30%，自由現金流為 33%。在此期間，我們以超過 12% 的複合率增加了每股季度股息。今年早些時候，我們宣布相信我們的自由現金流可以支持在未來幾年將我們之前的每股股息增加一倍。

Looking ahead to the next 10 years, we expect semiconductors to grow faster than GDP. We expect the equipment market to grow as fast or faster than semiconductors due to increasing technical complexity. We expect Applied's equipment business to outgrow the market due to our strong portfolio of products and solutions that are squarely targeted at the highest value inflections. And we expect our services business to grow as fast or faster than our equipment business as we help our customers generate increasing value from the industry's largest installed base of more than 48,000 tools.

展望未來10年，我們預期半導體的成長速度將快於GDP的成長。由於技術複雜性不斷增加，我們預期設備市場的成長速度將與半導體市場一樣快或更快。我們預計應用材料公司的設備業務成長將超過市場，因為我們強大的產品和解決方案組合專門針對最高價值的變化。我們預計我們的服務業務的成長速度將與我們的設備業務一樣快或更快，因為我​​們幫助客戶從業界最大的超過 48,000 種工具的安裝基礎中創造越來越多的價值。

Next, I'll summarize our fiscal year results. On a year-over-year basis, revenue increased nearly 3% to a record $26.5 billion, non-GAAP gross margin increased 20 basis points to 46.8% as our value-based pricing and cost improvement actions more than offset the impact of inflation. Non-GAAP OpEx increased 13% to $4.69 billion, with the majority of the increase in R&D. Non-GAAP operating profit declined 2% to $7.72 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin decreased 140 basis points to 29.1%.

接下來，我將總結我們的財政年度業績。與去年同期相比，營收成長了近3%，達到創紀錄的265 億美元，非GAAP 毛利率成長了20 個基點，達到46.8%，因為我們基於價值的定價和成本改進行動足以抵消通貨膨脹的影響。非 GAAP 營運支出成長 13%，達到 46.9 億美元，其中大部分成長來自研發。非 GAAP 營業利潤下降 2%，至 77.2 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利潤率下降 140 個基點，至 29.1%。

Non-GAAP EPS increased 4.5% to $8.05 per share. We generated record operating cash flow of $8.7 billion and record free cash flow of $7.6 billion. Shareholder distributions were approximately $3.16 billion. We paid $975 million in cash dividends and used approximately $2.2 billion to repurchase 18 million shares at an average price below $123 per share. We remain committed to returning 80% to 100% of free cash flow to shareholders over time and returned 87% over the past 3 years.

非 GAAP 每股收益成長 4.5% 至 8.05 美元。我們創造了創紀錄的 87 億美元營運現金流和創紀錄的 76 億美元自由現金流。股東分配約 31.6 億美元。我們支付了 9.75 億美元的現金股息，並使用約 22 億美元以低於每股 123 美元的平均價格回購了 1,800 萬股股票。我們仍然致力於隨著時間的推移向股東返還 80% 至 100% 的自由現金流，並在過去 3 年中返還 87%。

Now I'll summarize our Q4 results. on a year-over-year basis. Net sales of $6.72 billion were slightly lower. Non-GAAP EPS rose 4% to a record $2.12. Non-GAAP gross margin increased 130 basis points to 47.3%, and non-GAAP OpEx grew 8.8% to $1.19 billion, with around 2/3 of the increase in R&D.

現在我將總結我們第四季的結果。同比。淨銷售額為 67.2 億美元，略有下降。非 GAAP 每股盈餘上漲 4%，達到創紀錄的 2.12 美元。非 GAAP 毛利率成長 130 個基點，達到 47.3%，非 GAAP 營運支出成長 8.8%，達到 11.9 億美元，其中研發支出成長約 2/3。

Turning to the segments. Semi Systems revenue declined 3% year-over-year to $4.88 billion, and segment non-GAAP operating margin was flat at 36.9%. For the full year, Semi Systems grew revenue by 5% and outperformed the market, delivering record net sales overall and in foundry logic as well as in implant packaging, metal deposition and CVD.

轉向細分市場。 Semi Systems 營收年減 3%，至 48.8 億美元，部門非 GAAP 營運利潤率持平，為 36.9%。 Semi Systems 全年營收成長 5%，表現優於市場，整體淨銷售額、代工邏輯以及植入封裝、金屬沉積和 CVD 均創下歷史新高。

Applied Global Services revenue grew 4% year-over-year in Q4 to a record $1.47 billion, and segment non-GAAP operating margin grew 100 basis points to 29.3%. For the full year, AGS revenue increased 3%, demonstrating how the underlying growth drivers of the business more than compensated for the trade restrictions enacted in October of 2022, along with fab utilization rates that declined over the past year.

應用全球服務部第四季營收年增 4%，達到創紀錄的 14.7 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利潤率成長 100 個基點，達到 29.3%。全年 AGS 收入成長了 3%，這表明該業務的潛在成長動力足以彌補 2022 年 10 月頒布的貿易限制以及過去一年下降的晶圓廠利用率。

AGS growth is a function of 3 things: the number of tools in the installed base, the increase in service intensity as process complexity increases, and the number of subscription agreements, which increased revenue per tool. In 2023, we increased the installed base by 5%. And we increased the percentage of tools under service agreement by 3 percentage points to 16,600.

AGS 的成長取決於三件事：已安裝基礎中的工具數量、隨著流程複雜性增加而增加的服務強度以及訂閱協議的數量（這增加了每個工具的收入）。 2023 年，我們的安裝基數增加了 5%。我們將服務協定工具的比例增加了 3 個百分點，達到 16,600 個。

An important catalyst for AGS is that we are adding entirely new kinds of subscription agreements, including sensor and AI-based solutions in areas like tool matching for fab ramp acceleration.

AGS 的一個重要催化劑是我們正在添加全新類型的訂閱協議，包括用於晶圓廠產能加速的工具匹配等領域的基於感測器和人工智慧的解決方案。

In Q4, we signed a unique environmental services agreement under which a large number of process tools and subfab resources are connected to applied eco-efficiency hardware and software products all delivered as a service that helps our customers reduce electricity consumption and carbon emissions. In addition, we recently signed our largest global comprehensive service agreement ever.

在第四季度，我們簽署了一項獨特的環境服務協議，根據該協議，大量製程工具和晶圓廠資源與應用的生態效率硬體和軟體產品相連接，所有這些產品均作為服務提供，幫助我們的客戶減少電力消耗和碳排放。此外，我們最近簽署了有史以來最大的全球綜合服務協議。

Finally, AGS continues to produce more than enough operating profit to pay the company's dividend.

最後，AGS 繼續產生足夠的營業利潤來支付公司的股息。

Moving now to Display. Q4 revenue increased to $298 million, and segment non-GAAP operating margin increased to 22.5%. We continue to expect the display cycle and Applied's display business to improve modestly in 2024. And we look forward to our opportunity to drive OLED technology into the laptop and tablet markets in 2025.

現在轉向顯示。第四季營收增至 2.98 億美元，部門非 GAAP 營運利潤率增至 22.5%。我們仍然預計顯示週期和應用材料公司的顯示業務將在 2024 年略有改善。我們期待在 2025 年有機會將 OLED 技術推向筆記型電腦和平板電腦市場。

Turning to cash flows in Q4. We generated nearly $1.6 billion in operating cash flow and nearly $1.25 billion in free cash flow. We distributed nearly $968 million to shareholders, including $268 million in dividends and $700 million in buybacks. We repurchased 5 million shares at an average price of $138.54.

轉向第四季的現金流。我們產生了近 16 億美元的營運現金流和近 12.5 億美元的自由現金流。我們向股東分配了近 9.68 億美元，其中包括 2.68 億美元的股息和 7 億美元的回購。我們以 138.54 美元的平均價格回購了 500 萬股股票。

Next, I'll discuss our business in China. As Gary indicated, we do not expect an incremental material impact from the recently updated trade rules. Our business in China grew as expected in Q4 and largely due to an increase in trailing-edge DRAM shipments that contributed close to $500 million in revenue. In Q4, our overall revenue in China was 44% of company sales. For the full year, revenue in China was 27% of sales, with Semi Systems sales in China composing 20% and AGS and Display sales in China, the remaining 7%.

接下來，我將討論我們在中國的業務。正如加里指出的那樣，我們預計最近更新的貿易規則不會產生增量實質影響。我們在中國的業務在第四季度的成長符合預期，這主要是由於後緣 DRAM 出貨量的增加，貢獻了近 5 億美元的收入。第四季度，我們在中國的整體營收占公司銷售額的44%。全年來看，中國地區的營收佔銷售額的27%，其中Semi Systems在中國的銷售額佔20%，AGS和Display在中國的銷售額佔其餘7%。

We believe equipment demand in China is likely to remain healthy for an extended period because China's domestic manufacturing capacity remains significantly below its share of worldwide semiconductor demand. In addition, while nameplate fab capacity is growing in China, effective capacity is likely to remain below industry averages for some time until product and process yields gradually improve.

我們認為，中國的設備需求可能在較長時期內保持健康，因為中國的國內製造能力仍遠低於其在全球半導體需求的份額。此外，雖然中國的銘牌晶圓廠產能正在成長，但有效產能可能在一段時間內仍低於產業平均水平，直到產品和製程良率逐漸提高。

Now I'll share our guidance for Q1. We expect our revenue to be $6.47 billion, plus or minus $400 million, and we expect non-GAAP EPS of $1.90, plus or minus $0.18. Within this outlook, we expect Semi Systems revenue to be $4.7 billion with ongoing strength in trailing edge DRAM. We expect AGS revenue to be $1.46 billion, and Display revenue should be around $235 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 47%, and non-GAAP operating expenses to be around $1.23 billion. we are modeling a tax rate of 13%.

現在我將分享我們對第一季的指導。我們預計我們的收入為 64.7 億美元，上下浮動 4 億美元，預計非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.90 美元，上下浮動 0.18 美元。在此前景下，我們預計 Semi Systems 的營收將達到 47 億美元，並且在後緣 DRAM 領域持續保持強勢。我們預計 AGS 收入為 14.6 億美元，顯示收入應為 2.35 億美元左右。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 47%，非 GAAP 營運費用約為 12.3 億美元。我們正在模擬 13% 的稅率。

Thank you. And now, Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

謝謝。現在，麥克，我們開始問答。

Thanks, Brice. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，布萊斯。 （操作員指示）操作員，我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Certainly, ladies and gentlemen, if you have . Our first question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

（操作員說明）當然可以，女士們先生們，如果您有的話。我們的第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的史黛西·拉斯貢（Stacy Rasgon）。

I'm sure you saw the news report that came out pretty much coincident with your earnings release, from Reuters, that talked about a potential investigation into your China shipments to SMIC. It also mentioned, though, that you have already disclosed on October -- in October '22 potential subpoena.

我確信您看到了路透社發布的與您的財報幾乎同時發布的新聞報道，其中談到了可能對您向中芯國際發貨的中國貨物進行調查。不過，它也提到，您已經在 10 月（即 22 年 10 月）披露了潛在的傳票。

I was just wondering, can you tell us like what is going on here? What have you actually disclosed around potential legal issues related to your shipments in China around the export controls at this point? And I mean, I don't know what you can comment on this report or not, but any comments that you might have on the result would be helpful. I don't think you had much time to put it in the script.

我只是想知道，你能告訴我們這裡發生了什麼事嗎？目前，您實際上就出口管制方面與您在中國發貨相關的潛在法律問題披露了哪些內容？我的意思是，我不知道您對此報告有何評論，但您對結果的任何評論都會有所幫助。我認為你沒有太多時間將其放入劇本中。

Stacy, it's Brice. Thanks for the question. We did disclose last year in our K that we received a subpoena from the U.S. Attorney's Office. and they are requesting information related to certain shipments to China? What we would say is we're fully cooperating with the government on this matter. And of course, we're -- we remain committed to complying to all of the trade rules. And as you can imagine, because this is an ongoing legal matter, we can't add to any of the comments that are out there at this point, but it's been a regular disclosure for us.

史黛西，我是布萊斯。謝謝你的提問。去年我們確實在 K 中透露，我們收到了美國檢察官辦公室的傳票。他們要求提供與某些運往中國的貨物相關的資訊？我們想說的是，我們在此事上與政府充分合作。當然，我們仍然致力於遵守所有貿易規則。正如您可以想像的那樣，因為這是一個持續的法律問題，所以我們無法添加任何目前存在的評論，但這對我們來說是定期披露。

So there's nothing new to this. This is all related to whatever was already going on?

所以這沒什麼新鮮的。這一切都與已經發生的事情有關嗎？

Yes. I just can't add any comment to this, but yes, we did disclose this last October, I believe.

是的。我無法對此發表任何評論，但是，是的，我相信我們去年十月確實披露了這一點。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

You mentioned that you expect China demand to stay healthy. And I'm trying to understand what that means because you did have these incremental DRAM shipments. So I guess the first specific question is, what are you assuming for those DRAM shipments in your January quarter outlook?

您提到您預計中國需求將保持健康。我試圖理解這意味著什麼，因為 DRAM 出貨量確實有所增加。所以我想第一個具體問題是，您對 1 月季度的 DRAM 出貨量前景有何假設？

And should we understand from your China strength comment that your China sales conceptually, could say at least flattish next year? Or could they even grow? Just high level, what does stay strong mean to you as it comes to the sales impact in fiscal '24?

我們是否應該從您對中國實力的評論中了解到，從概念上講，您的中國銷售至少可以說明年持平？或者說它們還能成長嗎？就高水準而言，就 24 財年的銷售影響而言，保持強勁對您意味著什麼？

Vivek, yes, so for Q1, in particular, as you highlighted, we did see elevated shipments to China in Q4. It was 44% of our sales mix. In Q1, we expect it to be elevated again. We'll continue to ship DRAM products at a high level in Q1. And when we think about the mix for China for the rest of '24, we're not ready to give a guide yet, but most of this business is ICAPS business. And it's been very strong growth for '22 and '23 for us.

Vivek，是的，特別是對於第一季度，正如您所強調的那樣，我們確實看到第四季度對中國的出貨量有所增加。它占我們銷售組合的 44%。在第一季度，我們預計它會再次上升。我們將在第一季繼續保持高水準的 DRAM 產品出貨量。當我們考慮 24 年剩餘時間內中國的業務組合時，我們還沒有準備好提供指導，但大部分業務都是 ICAPS 業務。對我們來說，22 年和 23 年的成長非常強勁。

For '24, we expect it to be a strong, still strong. It may not be as strong as it was in '23, but China is the largest component to that. So again, we're not ready to guide that, but in our Q1 guide, you'll still see an elevated mix for China.

對於 24 年，我們預計它會非常強勁，而且仍然強勁。它可能不像23年那麼強大，但中國是其中最大的組成部分。再說一次，我們還沒有準備好對此進行指導，但在我們的第一季指南中，您仍然會看到中國的組合有所提高。

Vivek, this is Gary. Just also what Brice said on the prepared remarks, was for the full year, China was 27%. Actually, it's down a little bit, but really pretty much same ZIP code as it was in the previous year. And as we go through the year, we would think it gets more back to the historical averages.

維韋克，這是加里。正如布萊斯在準備好的演講中所說，全年中國佔 27%。實際上，它有所下降，但郵政編碼與前一年幾乎相同。當我們回顧這一年時，我們認為它會更多地回到歷史平均水平。

And our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的克里斯·卡索（Chris Caso）。

Just another question on the ICAPS, just unpacking some of what you said. So perhaps you could talk to the non-China part of the ICAPS business. It sounds like that's where you're seeing a little bit of incremental weakness, again, in line with some of your customers.

這是關於 ICAPS 的另一個問題，只是解開您所說的一些內容。所以也許你可以談談 ICAPS 業務的非中國部分。聽起來這就是您看到的一些逐漸增加的弱點，這與您的一些客戶的說法一致。

And then I guess along with that, with what you just said is China coming back to the historic averages, is that a function of just other business growing as opposed to China going down?

然後我想除此之外，正如您剛才所說，中國正在回到歷史平均水平，這是否是其他業務增長而不是中國下降的結果？

Okay, thanks, Chris. On the second part, I think the reason China comes back to its normal average is around 30%. It's just because the elevated DRAM shipments will normalize after Q1. So we had high DRAM in Q4. We expect that in Q1, and that should slow down after that and it will be mostly ICAPS business again.

好的，謝謝，克里斯。第二部分，我認為中國回到正常平均的原因是30%左右。只是因為 DRAM 出貨量的增加將在第一季之後恢復正常。因此，我們在第四季度擁有較高的 DRAM。我們預計第一季的成長速度應該會放緩，並且主要將再次成為 ICAPS 業務。

And then thinking of ICAPS in general, what I would say again is we had significant growth in '22, significant, even higher growth in '23. So when we think long term, we're expecting mid- to high single digits of growth for ICAPS across several years.

然後考慮到 ICAPS 的整體情況，我要再說一遍的是，我們在 22 年實現了顯著成長，在 23 年實現了顯著甚至更高的成長。因此，當我們長遠考慮時，我們預計 ICAPS 在幾年內將實現中高個位數的成長。

And to your point, looking right now this year, Q1 is actually a strong guide for ICAPS. But we do see lower utilization. We have seen some pushouts from different customers as they retime some of their fab projects. And we did see the lower utilization in Q4.

就您的觀點而言，就今年而言，第一季實際上是 ICAPS 的強大指南。但我們確實看到利用率較低。我們看到不同客戶在重新安排一些晶圓廠專案時提出了一些退出。我們確實看到第四季的利用率較低。

So we do think that Q -- '24 will be a strong year for ICAPS, it may not be as strong as '23. But again, it's much higher than it was in '22 because of the growth cycle that it's gone through.

因此，我們確實認為 Q - 24 年對於 ICAPS 來說將是強勁的一年，但可能不如 23 年那麼強勁。但同樣，由於它經歷了成長週期，它比 22 年要高得多。

And our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Gary, I had a question on '24 WFE. You gave really good color by application in your prepared remarks, leading-edge, foundry logic and NAND up DRAM, it sounded like you're thinking flattish and ICAPS may be down a little bit. Curious if you can perhaps quantify how you're thinking about these different applications and perhaps the overall WFE market into next year?

加里，我有一個關於 '24 WFE 的問題。您在準備好的發言中對應用程式、前沿、代工邏輯和 NAND 上的 DRAM 給出了非常好的色彩，聽起來您的想法很平淡，ICAPS 可能會下降一點。好奇您是否可以量化您對這些不同應用程式以及明年整個 WFE 市場的看法？

And more importantly, you highlighted how you guys have outperformed the market for 5 consecutive years, is it fair to assume that '24 could be the sixth consecutive year given what you see in your backlog today?

更重要的是，你們強調了你們如何連續 5 年跑贏市場，鑑於你們今天在積壓訂單中看到的情況，假設 24 可能是連續第六年是否公平？

Toshiya, I would say that relative to Applied's performance, I'm very optimistic. In leading foundry logic, we're really well positioned for the major inflections that our customers where we ramp in gate-all-around and backside power delivery. Gate-all-around, we'll see some revenue in '24, but that's going to be ramping more significantly in the future years.

Toshiya，我想說，相對於應用材料公司的表現，我非常樂觀。在領先的代工邏輯中，我們確實處於有利位置，可以應對客戶在全閘極和背面供電方面的主要變化。總體而言，我們將在 24 年看到一些收入，但在未來幾年將會更加顯著地成長。

And backside power, we'll see some revenue also in '24, but also a significant ramp in the coming years.

至於背面電源，我們也將在 24 年看到一些收入，但在未來幾年也會顯著成長。

And each one of those inflections is $1 billion incremental opportunity for Applied, and we can capture more. We're on track to capture more than 50% of the overall spend for those major inflections. So really good position in foundry logic for Applied overall, as we said in the prepared remarks, we think that business will be healthy in '24.

每一次變化都為應用材料公司帶來了 10 億美元的增量機會，我們可以抓住更多機會。我們預計將獲得這些重大變化的總支出的 50% 以上。因此，應用材料公司整體的代工邏輯確實處於良好的位置，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們認為 24 年業務將會健康發展。

DRAM is another case where we're really well positioned for the major inflections. We've gained 10 points of overall DRAM share in the last 10 years. And again, going forward, we feel like we're well positioned. We have design wins for those future inflections in DRAM, and we see opportunities to continue to drive share there.

DRAM 是另一個例子，我們在重大變化中確實處於有利位置。在過去 10 年裡，我們的 DRAM 整體份額增加了 10 個百分點。再一次，展望未來，我們感覺自己處於有利位置。我們在 DRAM 未來的變化中取得了設計勝利，並且我們看到了繼續推動市場份額的機會。

In packaging, that business is $1 billion for us today. And we're in a very good position for all of the different architecture inflections in packaging. And there, again, we have an opportunity to gain over 50% share in packaging inflections as that goes forward.

如今，在包裝領域，這項業務對我們來說價值 10 億美元。我們對於包裝中所有不同的架構變化都處於非常有利的位置。隨著這種情況的發展，我們再次有機會獲得超過 50% 的包裝變化份額。

So all of those areas that we talked about, the leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM, packaging, all of those areas are very strong for us. And as we said, ICAPS will be weaker in '24, but those opportunities, those markets will offset some of the weakness in ICAPS.

因此，我們談論的所有這些領域，領先的代工邏輯、DRAM、封裝，所有這些領域對我們來說都非常強大。正如我們所說，ICAPS 將在 24 年走弱，但這些機會、這些市場將抵消 ICAPS 的一些疲軟。

And Brice, I don't know if you want to add anything on the overall market?

Brice，我不知道您是否想為整個市場添加一些內容？

No, I think that's good. We just -- It's better for us to give you insights into each of the end markets and tell you what we see, and that's the best way we can communicate what we see going forward.

不，我認為這樣很好。我們只是——對我們來說，更好的是讓您深入了解每個終端市場並告訴您我們所看到的，這是我們傳達我們所看到的未來​​的最佳方式。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

This is (inaudible) on behalf of Krish. I guess the question I have is on gross margins. Just given the comments about normalization of China revenues in the coming quarters and also sort of the ICAPS dynamics. What are sort of the certainly longer-term or medium-term implications to gross margins if a mix of China goes down?

這是（聽不清楚）代表 Krish。我想我的問題是毛利率。剛剛考慮到有關未來幾季中國收入正常化以及 ICAPS 動態的評論。如果中國的綜合實力下降，對毛利率肯定會產生哪些長期或中期影響？

So for gross margins, first, I would say to investors, we're still committed to what we had modeled, although we delayed it for a year. So we're modeling 48% to 48.5%. That's what we're committed as an interim goal to raising our margins.

因此，對於毛利率，首先，我要對投資者說，我們仍然致力於我們所建立的模型，儘管我們將其推遲了一年。所以我們對 48% 到 48.5% 進行建模。這就是我們致力於提高利潤率的中期目標。

As you highlighted, in Q4, we had 47.3%. It was buoyed by the 44% mix of China. If you strip that away, it's probably 100 basis points worth of uplift. Last quarter, we highlighted that our underlying gross margin today if not benefited or impacted by something specific in the market is probably 46.6% or 46.7%. And we do expect to make gradual improvements toward that goal in 2025 as we move forward. That will be primarily continued progress in value pricing as we work to offset high inflation impacts across all of our expenses and then cost reductions.

正如您所強調的，第四季我們的佔有率為 47.3%。中國佔 44% 的比例推動了這一趨勢。如果剔除這一點，可能會帶來 100 個基點的提升。上個季度，我們強調，如果沒有受益於或受到市場特定因素的影響，我們今天的基本毛利率可能為 46.6% 或 46.7%。我們確實希望在 2025 年向前邁進時逐步改進這一目標。這主要是價值定價的持續進展，因為我們努力抵銷所有費用的高通膨影響，然後降低成本。

And our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

On the [tools] services business continues to drive strong year-over-year trends. Great to see the subscription attach continuing to rise. Utilizations are still depressed across your customer base, but have they stabilized, especially across advanced foundry, logic and memory?

[工具]服務業務持續推動強勁的年比趨勢。很高興看到訂閱量持續上升。您的客戶群的利用率仍然低迷，但它們是否已經穩定下來，特別是在先進的代工廠、邏輯和記憶體領域？

And then just as a quick one, operating margins in AGS are still about 200 basis points below the 30%, 31% that you drive for 6 consecutive quarters through fiscal Q3 of last year. Are inflationary pressure still the biggest factor? Or is it mix related? Is your 200-millimeter ICAPS shipments to continue to remain strong. And any line of sight on getting back into that sort of low 30% range on AGS?

然後，作為一個快速的指標，AGS 的營業利潤率仍比去年第三財季連續 6 個季度的 30% 和 31% 低約 200 個基點。通膨壓力仍是最大因素嗎？還是混合相關？你們的200毫米ICAPS出貨量是否持續保持強勁。 AGS 是否有可能回到 30% 的低水準範圍？

Okay. Harlan. First question on stabilized utilization rates. I think in general, I would say no because we did see lower utilization rates in ICAPS, as I just highlighted in Q4. And so there is some digestion there an ICAPS at this point.

好的。哈蘭.第一個問題關於穩定的利用率。我認為總的來說，我會說不，因為我們確實看到 ICAPS 的利用率較低，正如我剛剛在第四季度強調的那樣。因此，此時 ICAPS 已進行了一些消化。

Otherwise, as I look across the rest of the segments, if you think about the memory components and you think about leading logic, I would say that's been fairly stable.

否則，當我查看其餘部分時，如果您考慮記憶體組件並考慮主導邏輯，我會說這是相當穩定的。

On the operating margin side for AGS, and thanks for highlighting the business, because we did grow this year despite the setback at removing some of the China tools from our ability to service going forward, that's really what set us back from a margin perspective and shrank the business in the year and remove some of the smaller customer better margin products that we had.

在 AGS 的營業利潤方面，感謝您強調業務，因為儘管我們在未來的服務能力中刪除了一些中國工具，但今年我們確實實現了增長，這確實是從利潤角度來看讓我們倒退的原因，這一年我們縮減了業務，並取消了一些我們擁有的、利潤率較低的小客戶產品。

But going forward, we will be improving margins in that business, and we're committed to that low double-digit growth rate for our services business. And again, just the components of that will be a growing installed base, a more intense tool need for services and spares and information services and then the ability to have the win-win with subscription agreements with our customers for those services.

但展望未來，我們將提高該業務的利潤率，並且我們致力於服務業務實現兩位數的低成長率。再說一次，其中的組成部分將是不斷增長的安裝基礎，對服務、備件和資訊服務的更強烈的工具需求，以及透過與客戶簽訂這些服務的訂閱協議實現雙贏的能力。

And our next question comes from the line of Srini Pajjuri from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Srini Pajjuri。

My question is on ICAPS as well. Gary, I think in the past, you talked about ICAPS being about half of your business and given the slowdown you're expecting, a couple of things.

我的問題也是關於 ICAPS 的問題。加里，我想在過去，您談到 ICAPS 約佔您業務的一半，考慮到您預期的經濟放緩，有幾件事。

I guess you talked about China slowing down a bit in the short term. How do you see the non-China ICAPS business over the next 12 months? And where do you see ICAPS versus the other business mix, I guess, exiting, let's say, fiscal '24?

我想你談到了中國在短期內會放緩一些。您如何看待未來 12 個月的非中國 ICAPS 業務？我想，您認為 ICAPS 與其他業務組合相比，在 24 財年退出時有何看法？

Srini. So ICAPS is half of the total foundry logic business. So historically, that's -- it's been in that ZIP code. So foundry logic is about 1/3, ICAPS is about 1/3, memory is about 1/3, with the compute memory, DRAM being stronger than storage memory NAND, so that's the mix.

斯里尼。因此，ICAPS 佔代工邏輯業務總量的一半。從歷史上看，它就在那個郵政編碼中。所以代工邏輯大約是 1/3，ICAPS 大約是 1/3，記憶體大約是 1/3，運算記憶體、DRAM 比儲存記憶體 NAND 更強，所以這就是混合。

And I would expect that, that mix will continue going forward. I mean in any point in time, you could have some small changes in the mix, but we see foundry logic still remaining very strong going forward with that about 2/3 of our overall business split between the leading edge and ICAPS. So if you think about the big inflections, there's AI for high-performance computing, but there's a lot of growth in edge computing across many different industries.

我預計這種組合將繼續向前發展。我的意思是，在任何時間點，您都可以在組合中進行一些小的變化，但我們看到代工邏輯仍然非常強大，我們整體業務的約 2/3 分配在領先優勢和 ICAPS 之間。因此，如果你考慮重大變化，你會發現用於高效能運算的人工智慧，但許多不同行業的邊緣運算也有很大的成長。

So when we look at the markets, we think that mix is going to be pretty much similar to what we've talked about before, 1/3 foundry logic leading 1/3 ICAPS, 1/3 memory.

因此，當我們審視市場時，我們認為這種組合將與我們之前討論過的非常相似，1/3 代工邏輯領先 1/3 ICAPS，1/3 記憶體。

And then did you have another question? Or Brice, did you want to add anything?

然後你還有其他問題嗎？或是布萊斯，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. I'll just add on, just, Srini, just a reminder for investors here. Our longer-term view is mid- to high single digits for ICAPS as well as the whole semi component. But mid- to high single digits and we do expect that to be consistent for China. We do expect that to be consistent for non-China. And we saw -- as we communicated in our prior quarter, we did see several geographies growing faster than China.

是的。我只是補充一點，斯里尼，只是在這裡提醒投資者。我們的長期觀點是 ICAPS 以及整個半組件的中高個位數。但中高個位數，我們確實預期中國的情況會保持一致。我們確實希望這對非中國國家來說是一致的。正如我們在上一季所傳達的那樣，我們確實看到一些地區的成長速度超過了中國。

So this is definitely a global market, not just a China market, and China isn't even half of the market as we communicated.

所以這絕對是一個全球市場，而不僅僅是中國市場，而且中國甚至還不到我們溝通的市場的一半。

And then as far as the slowness goes or any lighter year, what I would say is our guide in Q1 includes an ICAPS that's very strong and continues to be very strong. So the way we're thinking about it is '22 is very strong, '23 was even stronger. We may take a breath here with a lower utilization, but we expect this market to continue to grow.

然後，就經濟放緩或任何較輕的年份而言，我想說的是，我們第一季的指南包括非常強勁且持續強勁的 ICAPS。所以我們的想法是‘22’非常強大，‘23’甚至更強。我們可能會因為利用率較低而喘口氣，但我們預計這個市場將繼續成長。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Timothy Arcuri。

I know you guys have been pretty reticent to provide a 2023 WFE number, everyone else's, first, they said 75 -- well, first, they said 70%, then they said 75, and now they're saying 80 but it really can't be 80 because if you add up all five suppliers, it's more like flat year-over-year. So can you give a sense of what you think WFE will be this year? I mean I do agree even if it's $90 billion, you're going to still gain share this year. But -- so I guess the first part of the question is, what is the baseline this year for 2024 WFE?

我知道你們一直不太願意提供 2023 年 WFE 數字，其他人首先說 75——嗯，首先他們說 70%，然後他們說 75，現在他們說 80，但確實可以不是80，因為如果你把所有五個供應商加起來，它更像是同比持平。那麼您能否談談您對今年 WFE 的看法？我的意思是，我確實同意即使是 900 億美元，今年你仍然會獲得份額。但是 - 所以我想問題的第一部分是，今年 2024 年 WFE 的基線是什麼？

And then I want to find out what's the message on 2024? I hear the message about mix changing. But -- are you -- but are you committing to WFE being up next year? Or you're not willing to make that commitment yet?

然後我想知道2024年的消息是什麼？我聽到有關更改混音的消息。但是——你是——但你承諾明年WFE會上升嗎？還是你還不願意做出這個承諾？

Tim, thanks for the question. So for '23, we've heard all of those numbers also, and we just feel it's best for us to report what we see from our seat. And for us, '23 was a growth year. We highlighted as we went through the last few quarters, how strong DRAM and ICAPS were and how having exposure to those two markets and a leadership position in those markets. helped us offset weakness that were in some of the other markets, NAND and leading logic primarily. So definitely, everybody can do the math. They can see what our numbers will be with the guide and that should help with your calculation of what the overall market would be.

提姆，謝謝你的提問。因此，對於 23 年，我們也聽到了所有這些數字，我們認為最好報告我們在座位上看到的情況。對我們來說，23 年是成長的一年。在過去的幾個季度中，我們強調了 DRAM 和 ICAPS 的強勁程度，以及如何涉足這兩個市場並在這些市場中佔據領導地位。幫助我們抵消了其他一些市場（主要是 NAND 和領先邏輯）的弱點。所以肯定的是，每個人都可以做數學計算。他們可以透過指南看到我們的數字，這應該有助於您計算整體市場。

And then for '24, we're not calling the total. Again, we're trying to characterize what we're seeing in each market. We do think DRAM will continue to be strong. We think NAND will come up off of a low position. We think leading logic will grow through the year, especially as gate-all-around begins to ship. And we think ICAPS it's strong in Q1 still, but ICAPS may take a breath with lower utilization. So we'll have to see how that plays out. And then packaging was strong in '23, and we expect that to continue.

然後對於 24 年，我們不會計算總數。我們再次嘗試描述我們在每個市場所看到的情況。我們確實認為 DRAM 將繼續強勁。我們認為 NAND 將會擺脫低位。我們認為領先的邏輯將在這一年中不斷增長，特別是當全能門開始出貨時。我們認為 ICAPS 在第一季仍然強勁，但 ICAPS 可能會因利用率較低而喘口氣。所以我們必須看看結果如何。然後包裝在 23 年表現強勁，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

And our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I was wondering if you could help us understand just relative to that long-term mid- high single-digit growth for ICAPS. What did it grow in fiscal '23? And then as we look into '24, how do you think about just leading-edge recovery of spending offsetting the decline in ICAPS.

我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解 ICAPS 的長期中高個位數成長。 23 財年成長了多少？然後，當我們展望 24 年時，您如何看待支出的前沿復甦抵消 ICAPS 的下降。

What was the second part? Joe, can you repeat the second part?

第二部分是什麼？喬，你能重複第二部分嗎？

Yes, just the recovery of leading-edge foundry logic offsetting the weakness in ICAPS?

是的，只是領先代工邏輯的復甦抵消了ICAPS的弱點？

Okay. So on the first part, I think we're still hearing different estimates of what semiconductors might be in 2023 from a growth perspective. What we've been saying from an equipment perspective is the growth was very high. So we described that in '22 at 40% plus. And we've said it was faster in '23 from an equipment perspective.

好的。因此，在第一部分中，我認為我們仍然從成長的角度聽到 2023 年半導體的不同估計。從設備的角度來看，我們一直在說成長非常高。所以我們在 22 年描述了 40% 以上。我們說過，從設備角度來看，23 年速度更快。

So the actual semiconductor is obviously not growing that fast, but the equipment market in preparing for the growth going forward, that's the approximate rate that we see. And then on the leading logic side, and offsetting ICAPS. Again, our Q1 guidance -- actually ICAPS is very strong, continues to be strong in our Q1 from a sales perspective. We do see lower utilization. We have seen some pushouts. So we're expecting that it won't be as strong a year as it was in '23, although still very strong.

因此，實際的半導體顯然沒有那麼快的成長，但設備市場正在為未來的成長做準備，這就是我們看到的大致速度。然後在領先的邏輯方面，並抵消 ICAPS。再說一次，我們的第一季指引——實際上 ICAPS 非常強勁，從銷售的角度來看，我們第一季的業績繼續強勁。我們確實看到利用率較低。我們已經看到了一些推出。因此，我們預計今年不會像 23 年那樣強勁，儘管仍然非常強勁。

And where well, we'll see some offset is growing leading logic because leading logic has been lower in the past few quarters. And we expect that to pick up through the year as new node investments, especially with gate-all-around, start to ship in earnest.

好吧，我們會看到一些抵消正在增長領先邏輯，因為領先邏輯在過去幾個季度一直較低。我們預計，隨著新的節點投資（尤其是全閘門投資）開始認真交付，這一數字將在今年有所回升。

Yes. The other thing I would add is that, as I said earlier, we're really well positioned for the major inflections. If you look at foundry logic, gate-all-around spending starts to ramp in '24. We've been gaining share in DRAM, and we're well positioned for those inflections.

是的。我要補充的另一件事是，正如我之前所說，我們確實為重大變化做好了準備。如果你看一下代工邏輯，你會發現，2024 年，整個閘極的支出開始增加。我們在 DRAM 領域的份額一直在增加，並且我們已經為這些變化做好了準備。

And as Brice said, Packaging was strong at '23. We believe it will still be strong at '24, and we're positioned to capture more than 50% of the spend in all of those different packaging architectures as they ramp in '24. So again, all of those areas will continue to be strong for Applied in '24 and beyond.

正如 Brice 所說，包裝在 23 年表現強勁。我們相信它在 24 年仍將保持強勁，隨著所有這些不同的封裝架構在 24 年的成長，我們將佔據超過 50% 的支出。再說一次，應用材料公司在所有這些領域將在 24 年及以後繼續保持強勁勢頭。

And our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

Great. You've talked about seeing some of these trends in ICAPS that have you thinking that there might be some deceleration. And you talked about China being good in DRAM and DRAM coming down.

偉大的。您談到了在 ICAPS 中看到的一些趨勢，這些趨勢讓您認為可能會出現一些減速。您談到中國在 DRAM 方面表現出色，而 DRAM 正在下降。

The China portion of ICAPS, should we be thinking about the utilization of those foundries to the extent that we've seen that? It was already low and they were spending a lot, the utilization coming down. They still seem to be spending a lot. Do you see that as a lead indicator for your part of the business?

ICAPS 的中國部分，我們是否應該考慮這些代工廠的利用率達到我們所看到的程度？它已經很低了，而且他們花費了很多，利用率下降了。他們似乎仍然花費很多。您是否認為這是您所在業務部門的領先指標？

Joe, thanks for the question. I think utilization in China and utilization for ICAPS in general did come down a little bit this cycle, that's definitely visible from a global perspective. When we think about what's happening in China, we have a broad customer base that are serving all of the different end markets. And so our perspective is -- our perspective is they are working on ramping their yields and coming up to mature product yields over time.

喬，謝謝你的提問。我認為，中國的利用率和 ICAPS 的整體利用率在本週期確實有所下降，從全球角度來看，這是明顯可見的。當我們思考中國正在發生的事情時，我們擁有廣泛的客戶群，為所有不同的終端市場提供服務。因此，我們的觀點是——我們的觀點是，他們正在努力提高產量，並隨著時間的推移達到成熟產品的產量。

So I think this is partly just a statement of where they are in the maturity curve of each of these product -- projects. When we think about the market as a total, it's a long list of customers. It's a number of fab projects that are being installed across the country. We think about the total capacity that's being put in place and the goal of being self-sufficient from a chip production perspective, and they're a long way from that, but we think they're committed to that as a whole. They have incentives in place to do it. So we view that market will be a stable part of our portfolio going forward.

因此，我認為這在一定程度上只是對它們在每個產品（項目）成熟度曲線中所處位置的陳述。當我們將市場視為一個整體時，它就是一長串客戶名單。這是在全國範圍內安裝的許多晶圓廠項目。我們從晶片生產的角度考慮了正在投入使用的總產能和自給自足的目標，他們距離這個目標還有很長的路要走，但我們認為他們總體上致力於實現這一目標。他們有這樣做的激勵措施。因此，我們認為該市場將成為我們未來投資組合的穩定部分。

Yes, Joe, this is Gary. Also, as Brice said, if you look at the efficiency of the spending, it's going to be less, especially with those new customers for many years. So the wafer starts versus the output, the yields are going to be much less from a device standpoint. So again, that's going to impact the overall output. And we think, again, the gap there with their domestic demand will keep that market healthy for a number of years.

是的，喬，這是加里。此外，正如布萊斯所說，如果你看看支出的效率，它會更少，特別是對於那些多年來的新客戶。因此，從設備的角度來看，晶圓的啟動與輸出相比，良率將會低得多。再說一遍，這將影響整體產量。我們再次認為，與國內需求的差距將使該市場在未來幾年保持健康。

Yes. Joe, just to finish the -- my thought, sorry, I missed one point. We do think the lower utilization, and we've seen some pushouts in the ICAPS business. This is a global statement. We do think that, that's a signal that it will be slightly less than the roaring growth we've seen in the last 2 years. And that's why we're saying it will be a strong year. It just won't be as strong as what we saw in '22 and '23.

是的。喬，只是為了完成——我的想法，抱歉，我錯過了一點。我們確實認為利用率較低，而且我們已經看到 ICAPS 業務出現了一些退出。這是一個全球性的聲明。我們確實認為，這是一個信號，表明它將略低於我們過去兩年看到的迅猛增長。這就是為什麼我們說這將是強勁的一年。它只是不會像我們在 22 年和 23 年看到的那麼強大。

And our next question comes from the line of Sidney Ho from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

Great. I want to double-click on the comments of your DRAM business. If I just look at your Semi Systems revenue for DRAM this year is tracking to grow 10% to 20%. And even exceed the last peak year in '21. But the market is still down quite a bit.

偉大的。我想雙擊你們DRAM業務的評論。如果我只看一下你們今年 DRAM 的 Semi Systems 收入將成長 10% 到 20%。甚至超過了上一個高峰年21年。但市場仍大幅下跌。

The question I have is how much of this outperformance comes from the market being maybe a lot better than we thought versus maybe share gains that you may have. Are you seeing anything structural that drives the capital intensity of that -- your business to be higher?

我的問題是，這種優異的表現在多大程度上來自於市場可能比我們想像的要好得多，而不是你可能擁有的股票收益。您是否看到任何結構性因素會推動您的業務資本密集度更高？

And my last part of it is, just to clarify, you talked about expecting demand for your DRAM products to remain strong which I'm assuming roughly flat in '24. Is that also true for the DRAM market in terms of WFE spend?

我的最後一部分是，只是為了澄清一下，您談到預計 DRAM 產品的需求將保持強勁，我假設 24 年大致持平。就 WFE 支出而言，DRAM 市場也是如此嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Sidney. So we do think the DRAM business was strong this year, partially strong because of some of the shipments to China customers where the process they're running was recently clarified to be within the rules within the allowed trade rules.

是的。謝謝你的提問，西德尼。因此，我們確實認為今年 DRAM 業務表現強勁，部分原因是向中國客戶發貨，他們正在運行的流程最近被澄清為符合允許的貿易規則的規定。

So that's a partial explanation. But I think we -- when we think of that market we think that it actually looks like a normal year, even without those China shipments that the DRAM market was fairly strong from an equipment perspective. And that matches recent years where a lot of the spending is technology upgrades, not necessarily new capacity, and we expect that to continue over time.

這是部分解釋。但我認為，當我們想到這個市場時，我們認為這實際上看起來是正常的一年，即使沒有中國的出貨量，從設備的角度來看，DRAM 市場也相當強勁。這與近年來的情況相符，其中大量支出用於技術升級，而不一定是新產能，我們預計這種情況將隨著時間的推移而持續下去。

Yes. Sidney, just talking with customers. Certainly, the forecast from them, for compute memory, is stronger than storage memory. And if you look just at one example on an AI server, the DRAM content there is much higher than an industry standard server. So again, just I've spent a lot of time on the road this last 3 months. And the customers are pretty optimistic about DRAM longer term and compute memory demand.

是的。西德尼，剛剛和顧客交談。當然，他們對計算記憶體的預測比儲存記憶體更強。如果你只看人工智慧伺服器上的一個例子，那裡的 DRAM 含量比行業標準伺服器高得多。再說一遍，過去三個月我花了很多時間在路上。客戶對 DRAM 的長期和計算記憶體需求非常樂觀。

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

One of your peers recently stated that AI could account for $6 billion of WFE next year, I think more than double the contribution of this year? I know it's difficult to benchmark against these figures.

你的一位同行最近表示，明年人工智慧可能佔 WFE 的 60 億美元，我認為是今年貢獻的兩倍多？我知道很難根據這些數字進行比較。

But can you provide a reference point on how you see AI augmenting WFE spending this year, next year or even beyond?

但您能否提供一個參考點，說明您如何看待人工智慧在今年、明年甚至以後增加 WFE 支出？

And just kind of maybe a two-parter, but just a clarification, but advanced foundry logic spending, it's clearly dipped in calendar second half. But tying in your earlier comments, it sounds like you expect foundry logic to improve off these lower levels in calendar first half of next year. Is that correct?

可能是由兩部分組成，但只是澄清一下，但先進的代工邏輯支出，在日曆下半年顯然有所下降。但結合您先前的評論，聽起來您預計代工邏輯將在明年上半年改善這些較低水平。那是對的嗎？

Okay. Thanks, Brian. On the first part for AI, last cycle, we provided some data points that I think are the relevant data points. We believe about 5% of our WFE is supporting AI workloads. That's not just Gen AI, but all AI workloads. And we did highlight that we expect that to grow at probably a 30% or higher CAGR going forward. And I think that's fair.

好的。謝謝，布萊恩。在上個週期的人工智慧第一部分中，我們提供了一些我認為是相關數據點的數據點。我們相信大約 5% 的 WFE 正在支援人工智慧工作負載。這不僅僅是 Gen AI，而是所有人工智慧工作負載。我們確實強調，我們預計未來複合年增長率可能達到 30% 或更高。我認為這是公平的。

So whatever WFE number you're using, I think if you use 5% and use your 30% growth rate, that's what we think in our equations, and that would be true for leading logic and that would be true for HBM on the DRAM side.

因此，無論您使用什麼WFE 數字，我認為如果您使用5% 並使用30% 的成長率，這就是我們在方程式中的想法，這對於領先邏輯來說是正確的，對於DRAM 上的HBM 來說也是如此邊。

And then on the second question, it's really the advanced logic, we're expecting to accelerate in the second half of in our first half of '24. In our first half guidance -- sorry, in our first quarter guidance, it will really be another quarter of strong ICAPS and strong DRAM not -- it will be similar in strength from a leading logic and NAND to prior quarter. So you still have that dynamic in Q1. So it would really be second half that we see improving leading logic.

關於第二個問題，這確實是先進的邏輯，我們預計在 24 年上半年的下半年加速。在我們的上半年指引中——抱歉，在我們的第一季指引中，這實際上將是另一個強勁的ICAPS 和強勁的DRAM 的季度——領先邏輯和NAND 的實力將與上一季度相似。所以第一季仍然有這種動力。因此，我們確實會在下半年看到領先邏輯的改善。

And our next question comes from the line of Charles Shi from Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Charles Shi。

I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you expect WFE to grow as fast or faster than semiconductors, which kind of implies you're thinking WFE intensity, which probably is already at the roughly 20-year high this year or to go -- there may be upside to go higher.

我想你在準備好的發言中提到，你預計WFE 的成長速度會與半導體一樣快或更快，這意味著你正在考慮WFE 的強度，今年或未來可能已經達到大約20 年來的最高水準— —可能還有走高的空間。

So really, I just want to understand your thinking behind where could the upside be? For example, I think your largest customer in Taiwan is expecting their capital intensity from the current 40-something percent level to go to what they think is a normalized level in the 30s. How do I reconcile your statement versus their statement?

所以說真的，我只是想了解你背後的想法，好處在哪裡？例如，我認為你們在台灣最大的客戶期望他們的資本密集度從目前 40% 左右的水平上升到他們認為的 30% 左右的正常水平。我如何協調你的陳述和他們的陳述？

Okay. Thanks, Charles. It's hard to -- we probably won't compare with anybody else's comments. But from our perspective, it has been growing -- one of the reasons it's been growing is because ICAPS, that particular business, the mature product technologies, as we've described before, there used to be available used facilities and available used equipment and it's really no longer the case. The industry is growing. And without that, just new investments have to be made in wafer starts and capacity, and that's raised the overall intensity level.

好的。謝謝，查爾斯。這很難——我們可能不會與其他人的評論進行比較。但從我們的角度來看，它一直在增長——它增長的原因之一是因為ICAPS，特定的業務，成熟的產品技術，正如我們之前所描述的，曾經有可用的二手設施和可用的二手設備，現在真的不再是這樣了。該行業正在成長。如果沒有這一點，就必須在晶圓啟動和產能方面進行新的投資，這會提高整體強度水準。

When we think to the other types of equipment processes, DRAM, NAND and leading logic we expect those to be more intensive with more steps from an equipment perspective, requiring new capabilities and new technologies. And that's actually what our R&D is engaged in. So it's more than intuition that we expect that intensity to go up over time.

當我們考慮其他類型的設備製程、DRAM、NAND 和領先邏輯時，我們預期從設備角度來看，這些製程將更加密集，步驟更多，需要新的能力和新技術。這實際上就是我們研發所從事的工作。因此，我們預期這種強度會隨著時間的推移而上升，這不僅僅是直覺。

One moment for our next question.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。

Yes. And operator, we have time for two more.

是的。接線員，我們還有時間再講兩個。

Certainly, our next question is a follow-up question from the line of Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

當然，我們的下一個問題是伯恩斯坦研究中心史黛西‧拉斯貢 (Stacy Rasgon) 的後續問題。

Thanks for letting me slip one more in here. I wanted to explore just a little more of the trade-off between the leading edge and the ICAPS next year. So I know you said ICAPS is down, foundry logic or leading edge foundry logic, but you said it would sort of offset some of it.

謝謝你讓我再放一張進去。明年我想進一步探討前沿技術和 ICAPS 之間的權衡。所以我知道你說 ICAPS 下降了，代工邏輯或前沿代工邏輯，但你說這會抵消其中的一些。

Are you thinking that the overall foundry logic, at least for a WFE standpoint, is up, down or flat in '24 versus the '23 levels given those dynamics?

您是否認為，考慮到這些動態，24 年的整體代工邏輯（至少從 WFE 的角度來看）與 23 年的水平相比是上升、下降還是持平？

Stacy, it's Brice. Yes, we didn't make a call on that. You kind of heard probably the components. I know probably everybody wants us to make a call. But what we're saying is we have a very strong Q1 still in ICAPS. The dynamics in Q1, assuming things play out as we're forecasting will be similar to Q4. You'll have a strong DRAM market, you have a strong ICAPS market. But we know that there have been some pushouts and there is lower utilization in ICAPS. So we're expecting that market to not be the same -- as strong as it was in '23.

史黛西，我是布萊斯。是的，我們沒有就此打電話。您可能聽說過這些組件。我知道可能每個人都希望我們打電話。但我們要說的是，第一季 ICAPS 的表現仍然非常強勁。假設事情按照我們的預測進行，第一季的動態將與第四季類似。你將擁有一個強大的 DRAM 市場，你將擁有一個強大的 ICAPS 市場。但我們知道，ICAPS 出現了一些退出，利用率較低。因此，我們預計該市場不會像 23 年那樣強勁。

When we flip and look at leading logic, leading logic is weak in Q4, and it's weak in Q1, also that same dynamic. And we know that new technologies will be ramping, including gate-all-around. So we're expecting that to help throughout the year. Whether that's bigger or smaller than whatever happens with ICAPS, we can't tell yet, but we'll just have to let that play out.

當我們翻轉並查看領先邏輯時，領先邏輯在第四季度較弱，在第一季也較弱，也是同樣的動態。我們知道新技術將會不斷湧現，包括環柵技術。因此，我們預計這將在全年有所幫助。無論這比 ICAPS 發生的情況更大還是更小，我們還不能確定，但我們只能讓它發揮作用。

It sounds like either one is dominating over the other, though. Is that a fair way to characterize?

不過，聽起來似乎其中一方勝過另一方。這是一種公平的表徵方式嗎？

Yes. I don't think you can make -- yes, it's not easy to make a call at this point.

是的。我認為你不能——是的，此時撥打電話並不容易。

Then our final question. One moment our final question. And for our final question we have the line of Jed Dorsheimer from William Blair.

然後是我們的最後一個問題。等一下我們的最後一個問題。對於我們的最後一個問題，我們有來自威廉布萊爾的傑德多斯海默的台詞。

Quick two part. I just want to confirm the pushouts that you started to see in ICAPS, do you -- did you can you comment on the end market? Was that auto related? And then second, the investigation, I know you don't want to get into any detail or can't there, but it seems like that's also in the ICAPS. Can you confirm those two?

快兩部分。我只是想確認您在 ICAPS 中開始看到的退出，您能對終端市場發表評論嗎？這與汽車有關嗎？第二，調查，我知道你不想或不能進入任何細節，但似乎這也包含在 ICAPS 中。你能證實這兩個嗎？

Yes. On the second, Jed, thanks for the questions. On the second, I just can't add any commentary to what we previously discussed with respect to the legal matter.

是的。第二個問題，傑德，謝謝你的提問。關於第二個問題，我無法對我們之前討論的有關法律問題的內容添加任何評論。

On the first one, there's definitely a mixed inventory situations and mixed reports on all the different ICAPS markets. Actually, where we would point as probably being the slowest at this point is industrial.

第一個，所有不同的 ICAPS 市場肯定存在混合的庫存情況和混合的報告。事實上，我們認為目前速度最慢的是工業領域。

Just to add a comment for you. On the auto side, I would say that it may be slower from a unit perspective, but because of the density of chips in EVs and even newer cars, we're not expecting much weakness in the auto market. So I guess that's the way I would think of that.

只是為您添加評論。在汽車方面，我想說，從單位角度來看，它可能會更慢，但由於電動車甚至新型汽車的晶片密度，我們預計汽車市場不會出現太大疲軟。所以我想這就是我的想法。

Okay. Thanks, Jed, for your question. And Brice, with that, would you like to give us your closing thoughts?

好的。謝謝傑德提出的問題。布萊斯，您願意向我們介紹一下您的結束語嗎？

Thanks, Mike. From a year-end and closing perspective, I really like the sustainable operational progress our teams have made. Our Semi Systems business grew in a down year, and our services business also had a record year, proving its resilience just like it did in 2019. The R&D investments we've been making in collaboration with our customers put us in a great position for the next wave of inflection spending.

謝謝，麥克。從年終和結束的角度來看，我真的很喜歡我們團隊所取得的永續營運進度。我們的半導體系統業務在低迷的一年中成長，而我們的服務業務也取得了創紀錄的一年，證明了其彈性，就像2019 年一樣。我們與客戶合作進行的研發投資使我們處於有利地位下一波拐點支出。

We now have a line of sight to market share of over 50% across gate all-around backside power and advanced packaging. At the same time, we're increasing gross margins and generating strong free cash flow, and this sets us up for increasing shareholder distributions.

現在，我們的目標是在閘極全方位背面電源和先進封裝領域佔據超過 50% 的市場份額。同時，我們正在提高毛利率並產生強勁的自由現金流，這為我們增加股東分配奠定了基礎。

I hope I get to see many of you at the Wells Fargo Conference in Southern California. In the meantime, for those of you in the U.S., we hope you enjoy a safe and happy Thanksgiving.

我希望能在南加州的富國銀行會議上見到你們中的許多人。同時，對於美國的人們，我們希望你們度過一個安全、快樂的感恩節。

Now Mike, thank you, and let's close the call.

現在，麥克，謝謝你，讓我們結束通話。

All right. Great. Thanks, Brice. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of today's call is going to be available on the IR page of our website by 05:00 o'clock Pacific Time. Thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。偉大的。謝謝，布萊斯。我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。今天的電話會議重播將於太平洋時間 05:00 之前在我們網站的 IR 頁面上提供。感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Thank you ladies and gentlemen for your participation in today's conference. This does concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

感謝各位女士們、先生們參加今天的會議。程序就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。