應用材料 (AMAT) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

應用材料公司公佈了 2024 財年第二季的強勁業績,營收和利潤均處於指導範圍的高端。在人工智慧、物聯網、電動車和清潔能源等技術的推動下,該公司處於有利地位,可以從半導體產業的長期成長趨勢中受益。他們專注於關鍵半導體技術、材料工程以及與客戶的合作,以推動創新和成長。

該公司預計環柵技術、先進封裝、HBM、ICAPS 和 NAND 快閃記憶體將顯著成長,重點投資於快速成長的市場。他們預計先進封裝業務將翻一番,並預計今年環閘技術的銷售額將達到 25 億美元。該公司還專注於材料工程,為客戶增加更多價值並提高獲利能力。他們對業務的未來感到樂觀,特別是在資料中心人工智慧、邊緣運算、人工智慧、物聯網、汽車和清潔能源領域。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

    歡迎參加應用程式材料收益電話會議。 (操作員指示)現在,我想將會議交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。先生,請繼續。

  • Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

    Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Second Quarter of Fiscal 2024 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer.

    大家下午好,感謝您參加應用材料公司 2024 財年第二季財報電話會議。和我一起參加的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson;以及我們的財務長布萊斯希爾(Brice Hill)。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q filing with the SEC.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致我們的實際結果有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的資訊包含在應用材料公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-Q 表中。

  • Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on our website at ir.appliedmaterials.com.

    今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。與 GAAP 指標的對帳表可在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益資料中找到,這些資料可在我們的網站 ir.appliedmaterials.com 上找到。

  • Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. On Tuesday morning, July 9, from 7:30 to 9 a.m., Applied will host a technology breakfast event at SEMICON West in San Francisco. Joining us will be Dr. Prabu Raja, President of Applied Semiconductor Products Group; along with Mark Fuselier, who is Senior Vice President of Technology and Product Engineering at AMD. After Mark shares AMD's AI computing technology vision, Applied's experts will share our advanced materials engineering road map for making future AI chips. We'll outline device architecture inflections in logic, including transistors, frontside wiring and backside power, along with DRAM, high-bandwidth memory and other forms of advanced packaging. We hope you'll join us.

    在我們開始之前,我有一個日曆公告。 7月9日週二早上 7:30 至 9 點,應用材料公司將在舊金山的 SEMICON West 舉辦一場技術早餐活動。與我們一起參加的還有應用半導體產品集團總裁 Prabu Raja 博士;以及 AMD 技術和產品工程資深副總裁 Mark Fuselier。在馬克分享AMD的AI運算技術願景之後,應用材料公司的專家將分享我們用於製造未來AI晶片的先進材料工程路線圖。我們將概述邏輯中的設備架構變化,包括電晶體、正面佈線和背面電源,以及 DRAM、高頻寬記憶體和其他形式的先進封裝。我們希望您能加入我們。

  • And with that introduction, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

    介紹完畢後,我想將電話轉給加里·迪克森 (Gary Dickerson)。

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Mike. With second quarter revenue and earnings toward the high end of our guided range, Applied Materials continued to deliver strong performance in 2024, and we're in a great position to benefit from secular growth trends over the longer term. Semiconductors are the foundation of huge technology trends reshaping the global economy. These trends are driving demand for more chip manufacturing capacity as well as better chips with higher performance and improved energy efficiency.

    謝謝你,麥克。由於第二季的收入和收益接近我們指導範圍的高端,應用材料公司在 2024 年繼續表現強勁,並且我們處於有利地位,可以從長期的長期成長趨勢中受益。半導體是重塑全球經濟的重大技術趨勢的基礎。這些趨勢推動了對更多晶片製造能力以及性能更高、能效更高的晶片的需求。

  • Key inflections that underpin the semiconductor road map are enabled by Applied Materials and will support our ongoing outperformance as next-generation chip technologies move into high-volume production. In addition, the complexity of implementing the industry's road map and bringing new semiconductor technologies to market is driving earlier, deeper and broader collaboration with customers as well as supporting double-digit growth for our service business.

    應用材料公司推動了半導體發展路線圖的關鍵轉變,並將在下一代晶片技術進入大批量生產之際支持我們持續保持優異的表現。此外,實施產業路線圖並將新的半導體技術推向市場的複雜性,推動了與客戶更早、更深入和更廣泛的合作,並支持我們的服務業務實現兩位數的成長。

  • In my prepared remarks today, I'll provide some examples of how Applied's innovations are helping to enable multitrillion-dollar technology inflections, including AI. I'll explain how this translates to our performance in the near term and our future growth potential. I'll also describe how we're working with our customers and partners to accelerate major semiconductor inflections, all the way from research and development to high-volume manufacturing, and by doing this, how we are capturing more value in our service business.

    在今天的準備好的演講中,我將提供一些例子,說明應用材料的創新如何幫助實現包括人工智慧在內的數萬億美元的技術變革。我將解釋這對我們近期的表現和未來的成長潛力有何影響。我還將描述我們如何與客戶和合作夥伴合作,加速半導體從研發到大批量生產的重大變革,以及透過這種方式,我們如何在服務業務中獲得更多價值。

  • I'll start with a big-picture perspective. Tectonic shifts in technology, including AI, IoT and automation, electric and autonomous vehicles and clean energy will transform virtually every area of the economy over the next several decades. And they all have one thing in common: they are built upon semiconductors. As these new technologies are deployed, they are driving growth and innovation across the semiconductor ecosystem. In terms of impact and scale, I believe AI will be the biggest technology inflection of our lifetimes. And at the heart of AI are some of the world's most sophisticated chips.

    我將從宏觀角度開始。未來幾十年,人工智慧、物聯網和自動化、電動和自動駕駛汽車以及清潔能源等技術的巨大變化將改變幾乎每個經濟領域。它們都有一個共同點:都是建立在半導體之上。隨著這些新技術的部署,它們正在推動整個半導體生態系統的成長和創新。從影響和規模來看,我相信人工智慧將成為我們一生中最大的技術轉折。人工智慧的核心是一些世界上最先進的晶片。

  • In simple terms, the advanced chips that power AI data centers are enabled by 4 key semiconductor technologies: leading-edge logic; compute memory or high-performance DRAM; DRAM stacking technology referred to as high-bandwidth memory, or HBM; and advanced packaging to connect the logic and memory chips together and create a system in a package. Applied has process technology leadership in all 4 of these areas, and we have made significant investments in next-generation solutions to make possible the key device architecture inflections that are essential for our customers' future road maps.

    簡單來說,驅動AI資料中心的先進晶片由4項關鍵半導體技術實現:前沿邏輯;計算記憶體或高效能 DRAM; DRAM堆疊技術,又稱高頻寬內存,或HBM;並使用先進的封裝將邏輯晶片和記憶體晶片連接在一起,從而創建一個封裝系統。應用材料公司在這四個領域都擁有製程技術領先地位,並且我們對下一代解決方案進行了大量投資,以實現對客戶未來路線圖至關重要的關鍵設備架構變革。

  • In advanced logic, Applied has long-standing leadership in the materials engineering processes for both transistors and interconnects. The first nodes that use gate-all-around transistors are now transitioning to high-volume manufacturing. These new transistor process flows are considerably more complex, and the shift from FinFET to gate-all-around grows Applied's available market for the transistor module from around $6 billion to approximately $7 billion for every 100,000 wafer starts per month of capacity. With the gate-all-around transition, we are also gaining share, and we're on track to capture over 50% of the process equipment spending for transistor steps.

    在先進邏輯領域,應用材料公司在電晶體和互連材料工程製程方面長期佔據領先地位。首批使用環柵電晶體的節點目前正在轉向大量生產。這些新的電晶體製程相當複雜,並且從 FinFET 到環柵的轉變將使應用材料公司電晶體模組的可用市場規模從約 60 億美元增長到每月每 100,000 片晶圓的產能約 70 億美元。隨著環柵技術的轉變,我們的市場份額也在不斷擴大,我們預計將佔據電晶體製程設備支出的 50% 以上。

  • We also have very strong market share in interconnect or the wiring used to transmit data at high speed and low power. Our available market for the wiring steps is approximately $6 billion for each 100,000 wafer starts per month, and we expect it to grow by $1 billion when backside power delivery is introduced into volume manufacturing. Overall, we expect to generate more than $2.5 billion of revenue from gate-all-around nodes this year and potentially more than double that in 2025.

    我們在互連或用於高速、低功耗傳輸資料的佈線方面也佔有很大的市場份額。對於每月每 10 萬片晶圓而言,佈線步驟的可用市場約為 60 億美元,我們預計,當背面供電引入批量生產後,該市場將增長 10 億美元。總體而言,我們預計今年將從環柵節點產生超過 25 億美元的收入,到 2025 年可能會成長一倍以上。

  • In DRAM, one of the key approaches that memory makers are using to improve performance and power consumption is to implement logic technologies in the peripheral circuitry. Our deep capabilities in logic, combined with our strong position in DRAM patterning and our unique co-optimized hardmask solutions for capacitor scaling, makes us the clear leader in process equipment for DRAM today and best positioned for future growth.

    在 DRAM 中,記憶體製造商用來提高效能和功耗的關鍵方法之一是在外圍電路中實現邏輯技術。我們在邏輯方面的深厚實力,加上我們在 DRAM 圖案化方面的強勢地位,以及我們獨特的針對電容器縮放的共同優化硬掩模解決方案,使我們成為當今 DRAM 工藝設備的明顯領導者,並為未來的增長做好了最佳準備。

  • In the critical die stacking technologies used in high-bandwidth memory, we also have strong leadership positions, including in micro-bump and through-silicon via. Last quarter, we said that we expected our HBM packaging revenue to be 4x larger in 2024 than in 2023. As we have recently seen customers accelerate their capacity plans for HBM, we now believe that our revenue could be 6x higher this year, growing to more than $600 million. Across all device types, we now expect revenue from our advanced packaging product portfolio to grow to approximately $1.7 billion this year.

    在高頻寬記憶體使用的關鍵晶片堆疊技術方面,我們也佔據強大的領導地位,其中包括微凸塊和矽通孔技術。上個季度,我們表示,預計 2024 年 HBM 封裝收入將比 2023 年增長 4 倍。在所有設備類型中,我們預計今年先進封裝產品組合的收入將成長至約 17 億美元。

  • Looking further ahead, we see opportunities for this business to double again as heterogeneous integration is more widely adopted beyond the AI data center, and we introduce new products that expand our served market. AI data center is just one example that illustrates how the major inflections that underpin the next generation of semiconductors are enabled by Applied Materials.

    展望未來,隨著異質整合在人工智慧資料中心之外得到更廣泛的應用,以及我們推出擴大服務市場的新產品,我們看到這項業務再次翻倍的機會。人工智慧資料中心只是一個例子,說明了應用材料如何推動下一代半導體的重大轉變。

  • Materials science and materials engineering are increasingly important to the industry's road map. Applied has invested early to develop a broad, unique and connected portfolio of materials engineering solutions that are critical to enable major semiconductor inflections, from AI high-performance computing to ICAPS edge computing. We are translating those investments into consistent outperformance.

    材料科學和材料工程對於產業發展路線圖越來越重要。應用材料公司早期投入資金開發了廣泛、獨特且互聯的材料工程解決方案組合,這些解決方案對於實現從 AI 高效能運算到 ICAPS 邊緣運算等重大半導體變革至關重要。我們正在將這些投資轉化為持續的優異表現。

  • Recent TechInsights data confirms that in 2023, Applied grew faster than the wafer fab equipment market for the fifth year in a row. We accomplished this despite headwinds created by trade rules that we estimate restricted us from more than 10% of the China market during that period. While we have gained share overall, we are growing share within our served market even faster. This is important because as logic devices become more 3-dimensional, future generations of DRAM come to market and advanced packaging becomes more prevalent, we expect materials engineering to become an even larger portion of overall wafer fab equipment.

    TechInsights 的最新數據證實,到 2023 年,應用材料公司將連續第五年以高於晶圓廠設備市場的速度成長。儘管貿易規則給我們帶來了阻力,我們估計在此期間我們在中國市場的份額限制在 10% 以上,但我們仍然實現了這一目標。雖然我們總體上佔有份額有所增長,但我們在所服務的市場中的份額增長速度更快。這一點很重要,因為隨著邏輯元件變得更加三維化、未來幾代 DRAM 的上市以及先進封裝變得更加普遍,我們預計材料工程將成為整體晶圓廠設備中更大的一部分。

  • Another key component of Applied's strategy is to address the increasing complexity faced by the industry. First, we are driving earlier, deeper and broader collaboration with customers and partners. We are changing the industry's innovation model with the goal to accelerate mutual success rates and increase investment efficiencies. Our global EPIC platform that we will build out over the next several years is specifically designed to support high-velocity innovation and commercialization of next-generation technologies.

    應用材料公司策略的另一個關鍵組成部分是應對產業面臨的日益複雜的問題。首先,我們推動與客戶和合作夥伴的合作更早、更深入、更廣泛的。我們正在改變產業的創新模式,目標是加快共同成功率並提高投資效率。我們將在未來幾年內建構的全球 EPIC 平台專門用於支援下一代技術的高速創新和商業化。

  • Second, we are able to provide more complete and connected solutions that accelerate major device inflections. The portion of our revenue generated by integrated solutions has grown from approximately 20% in 2019 to 30% today. We expect demand for these fab-in-a-fab-type solutions to continue growing both at the leading edge and from our ICAPS customers who are serving specialty IoT, communications, auto, power and sensor applications.

    其次,我們能夠提供更完整、更互聯的解決方案,加速主要設備的轉型。我們由整合解決方案創造的收入份額從 2019 年的約 20% 增長到今天的 30%。我們預計,無論是在前沿領域還是在服務專業物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器應用的 ICAPS 客戶,這些晶圓廠中晶圓廠類型解決方案的需求都將繼續增長。

  • And third, we are helping customers transfer new technology into high-volume manufacturing faster and then optimize performance, yield, output and cost in their factory operations. This is supporting double-digit growth of our service business. AGS delivered a new record for revenue this quarter, $1.5 billion, with a significant portion of this coming from subscriptions in the form of long-term service agreements.

    第三,我們幫助客戶將新技術更快轉移到大量生產中,然後優化工廠營運的性能、產量、產出和成本。這支持了我們的服務業務實現兩位數的成長。 AGS 本季的營收創下了 15 億美元的新紀錄,其中很大一部分來自長期服務協議形式的訂閱。

  • Before I hand over to Brice, I will quickly summarize. Applied Materials continues to deliver strong performance in 2024, and we are in a great position to benefit from secular growth trends over the longer term. Tectonic shifts in technology, including AI, IoT, EVs and clean energy, that are reshaping the global economy are built on semiconductors, driving demand for more chips and new chips with higher performance and better energy efficiency.

    在交給 Brice 之前,我將快速總結一下。應用材料公司將在 2024 年繼續保持強勁業績,並且我們處於有利地位,可以從長期成長趨勢中受益。人工智慧、物聯網、電動車和清潔能源等技術的結構性轉變正在重塑全球經濟,這些轉變都建立在半導體的基礎上,推動了對更多晶片以及性能更高、能源效率更高的新晶片的需求。

  • Key device architecture inflections that underpin the semiconductor road map are enabled by Applied Materials. We expect this to support our ongoing outperformance as next-generation chip technologies, including gate-all-around logic nodes, high-performance DRAM and HBM and advanced packaging, move into high-volume production.

    支撐半導體發展路線圖的關鍵設備架構變化均由應用材料公司實現。我們預計,隨著包括環柵邏輯節點、高效能 DRAM 和 HBM 以及先進封裝在內的下一代晶片技術進入大批量生產,這將支援我們持續的優異表現。

  • And finally, the increasingly complex industry road map is driving earlier, deeper and broader collaboration between Applied Materials and our customers and partners, accelerating demand for our most advanced, co-optimized and integrated solutions and supporting double-digit growth in our service business.

    最後,日益複雜的產業路線圖推動了應用材料公司與客戶和合作夥伴之間更早、更深入和更廣泛的合作,加速了對我們最先進、共同優化和整合的解決方案的需求,並支持我們的服務業務實現兩位數的成長。

  • Now I'll hand over to Brice.

    現在我將麥克風交給布萊斯。

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Thank you, Gary. And I'd like to thank our teams for their focus and execution, which resulted in another strong quarter for revenue and gross margin. Today, I'll discuss our overall business environment and share insights into our ICAPS business, which serves the IoT, communications, auto, power and sensor markets. I'll describe our capital allocation strategy and operating model, demonstrating how we are driving profitable growth and attractive shareholder returns. I'll also summarize our Q2 results and provide our guidance for Q3.

    謝謝你,加里。我要感謝我們團隊的專注和執行,這使得本季的營收和毛利率再次強勁。今天,我將討論我們的整體業務環境並分享對我們服務於物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器市場的 ICAPS 業務的見解。我將描述我們的資本配置策略和營運模式,展示我們如何推動獲利成長和有吸引力的股東回報。我還將總結我們的第二季業績並提供第三季的指導。

  • In calendar Q1, the global market for semiconductors grew 15% year-over-year, and we're optimistic that the data center trends Gary outlined will help drive solid growth for the semiconductor industry. During the quarter, cloud service providers announced strong capital spending plans, which is good news for our customers. In the market briefing we issued earlier this month, we forecast that the data center market will eventually become the #1 driver of leading-edge foundry/logic wafer starts, surpassing PCs and then smartphones in the coming years.

    在第一季度,全球半導體市場年增 15%,我們樂觀地認為 Gary 概述的資料中心趨勢將有助於推動半導體產業的穩健成長。在本季度,雲端服務供應商宣布了強勁的資本支出計劃,這對我們的客戶來說是個好消息。在我們本月稍早發布的市場簡報中,我們預測資料中心市場最終將成為推動尖端代工/邏輯晶圓啟動的第一大驅動力,並在未來幾年超越個人電腦和智慧型手機。

  • Within our business, we had a strong quarter in fiscal Q2 across DRAM, advanced packaging, ICAPS and services. In February, we projected that factory utilization would increase across all device types, and it did. Gary discussed how the data center AI megatrend is driving strong demand for our technologies used in leading-edge logic, DRAM, high-bandwidth memory and other forms of advanced packaging.

    在我們的業務中,我們在第二財季的 DRAM、先進封裝、ICAPS 和服務方面表現強勁。今年 2 月,我們預測所有設備類型的工廠利用率都會提高,事實也確實如此。加里討論了資料中心 AI 大趨勢如何推動對我們在尖端邏輯、DRAM、高頻寬記憶體和其他形式的先進封裝中使用的技術的強勁需求。

  • Our ICAPS business is driven by 3 additional megatrends, notably: IoT and edge computing, electric and autonomous vehicles, and renewable energy. Across our ICAPS business, one of the largest demand drivers this year is edge computing, especially at the 28-nanometer node needed by smartphone companies and makers of IoT devices for industrial and home automation applications. A second large demand driver is power chips for electric vehicles, where industry leaders are now establishing supply chains to support their long-term growth plans. A third driver is the power chips used to capture renewable solar and wind energy, which are needed to achieve net-zero goals in the decades ahead.

    我們的 ICAPS 業務由另外三大趨勢推動,特別是:物聯網和邊緣運算、電動和自動駕駛汽車以及再生能源。在我們的 ICAPS 業務中,今年最大的需求驅動因素之一是邊緣運算,尤其是智慧型手機公司和工業和家庭自動化應用的物聯網設備製造商所需的 28 奈米節點。第二大需求驅動因素是電動車電源晶片,產業領導者目前正在建立供應鏈以支援其長期成長計畫。第三個驅動因素是用於捕獲可再生太陽能和風能的電源晶片,這是未來幾十年實現淨零目標所必需的。

  • We believe our ICAPS business will remain a large portion of our overall foundry/logic business for several reasons. One, the megatrends we described will continue to increase unit demand for ICAPS chips. Two, we are innovating at the device level, which creates better chips, stimulates new system sales and extends Applied's position as the highest-value partner for our customers. And finally, we are introducing ICAPS products in additional market segments, which will help us broaden our reach and gain share.

    我們相信,由於多種原因,我們的 ICAPS 業務仍將佔據我們整體代工/邏輯業務的很大一部分。首先,我們所描述的大趨勢將繼續增加 ICAPS 晶片的單位需求。二,我們在設備層面進行創新,從而創造出更好的晶片,刺激新系統的銷售,並擴大應用材料作為客戶最高價值合作夥伴的地位。最後,我們正在向其他細分市場推出 ICAPS 產品,這將有助於我們擴大影響力並獲得份額。

  • Next, I'll summarize our capital allocation strategy and the results it enables. Our efficient business model generates healthy free cash flow. Our first priority is investing in R&D and capital infrastructure to enable profitable growth. And our second priority is growing our dividend per share and using our buyback program to distribute excess free cash flow to shareholders. Specifically, over the past 10 fiscal years, we have reinvested more than $20 billion in R&D and over $5 billion in capital additions and distributed more than 90% of free cash flow to shareholders. Our capital allocation strategy supports our operating model, which I'll summarize.

    接下來,我將總結我們的資本配置策略及其所產生的成果。我們高效率的商業模式產生健康的自由現金流。我們的首要任務是投資研發和資本基礎設施,以實現獲利成長。我們的第二個任務是增加每股股息,並利用回購計畫向股東分配多餘的自由現金流。具體來說,在過去的10個財年中,我們在研發上再投資了200多億美元,在資本增加上再投資了50多億美元,並向股東分配了90%以上的自由現金流。我們的資本配置策略支援我們的營運模式,我將對此進行總結。

  • First, we invest over $3 billion in R&D each year, collaborating closely with our customers to invent new semiconductor technologies that are critical to their competitive positions in the global megatrends we've described. Second, we design high-volume manufacturing systems that enable our customers to deploy these new chip and advanced packaging technologies at global scale. Third, we manage a global factory and supply chain network to manufacture these systems. Fourth, we service our systems, which have decades of useful life, helping customers maximize the return on investment by accelerating ramps and optimizing output, yield and cost. Fifth, we reinvest a high percentage of the profits from this activity back into R&D to develop more new technologies and solutions. And finally, we distribute excess cash to shareholders.

    首先,我們每年在研發方面投資超過 30 億美元,與我們的客戶密切合作,發明新的半導體技術,這些技術對於他們在我們所描述的全球大趨勢中的競爭地位至關重要。其次,我們設計大量製造系統,使我們的客戶能夠在全球部署這些新的晶片和先進的封裝技術。第三,我們管理全球工廠和供應鏈網路來製造這些系統。第四,我們為擁有數十年使用壽命的系統提供服務,透過加速產能提升和優化產量、收益和成本,幫助客戶實現投資回報最大化。第五,我們將活動的大部分利潤重新投資於研發,以開發更多新技術和解決方案。最後,我們將多餘的現金分配給股東。

  • An important point is that every tool we manufacture and ship grows our installed base and our service opportunity, which leads to consistent and stable growth for Applied Global Services. In fact, AGS has delivered 19 consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth, spanning 2 memory downcycles. Over 80% of AGS revenue comes from recurring services and parts sales, about 2/3 of which is delivered under long-term service agreements that have a 90% renewal rate.

    重要的一點是,我們製造和運送的每種工具都會擴大我們的安裝基礎和服務機會,為應用全球服務帶來持續穩定的成長。事實上,AGS 已連續 19 個季度實現同比增長,跨越了 2 個記憶體下滑週期。 AGS 80% 以上的收入來自經常性的服務和零件銷售,其中約三分之二是根據續約率為 90% 的長期服務協議交付的。

  • Connecting this to our capital allocation strategy, AGS has continued to produce more than enough operating profit to fully fund our growing dividend. In March 2023, we announced a 23% increase in our dividend per share. And in March of this year, we announced a 25% increase.

    將此與我們的資本配置策略相結合,AGS 繼續產生足夠的營業利潤來為我們不斷增長的股息提供充足的資金。 2023 年 3 月,我們宣布每股股利增加 23%。今年 3 月,我們宣布漲價 25%。

  • In summary, over the past 10 fiscal years, our operating model has increased company revenue at a compound rate of over 13%, non-GAAP EPS at nearly 30%, free cash flow at 33% and dividends per share at nearly 12%. Also, over this period, we reduced net shares outstanding by over 30%.

    總結一下,過去10個財年,我們的營運模式使公司營收以超過13%的複合成長率成長,非GAAP每股盈餘成長近30%,自由現金流成長33%,每股股息成長近12%。此外,在此期間,我們將淨流通股減少了 30% 以上。

  • Now I'll summarize our Q2 results. On a year-over-year basis, net sales grew slightly to nearly $6.65 billion, non-GAAP gross margin grew 70 basis points to 47.5%, non-GAAP OpEx grew 5% to $1.23 billion, and non-GAAP EPS grew 4.5% to $2.09.

    現在我將總結我們的第二季業績。與去年同期相比,淨銷售額小幅成長至近 66.5 億美元,非 GAAP 毛利率成長 70 個基點至 47.5%,非 GAAP 營運支出成長 5% 至 12.3 億美元,非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 4.5% 至 2.09 美元。

  • Turning to segment results. Semiconductor Systems revenue remained strong at $4.9 billion and included record ion implant sales. Segment non-GAAP operating margin was 34.9%. Applied Global Services revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $1.53 billion, and segment non-GAAP operating margin was 28.5%. Our tools under subscription agreement increased by 8% year-over-year, and our installed base of chambers surpassed 200,000 for the first time.

    轉向細分結果。半導體系統營收保持強勁,達到 49 億美元,其中包括創紀錄的離子注入銷售額。分部非公認會計準則營業利益率為34.9%。應用全球服務收入年增 7% 至 15.3 億美元,分部非 GAAP 營業利益率為 28.5%。我們的訂購協議工具數量年增 8%,我們的安裝量首次超過 20 萬個。

  • Moving to display. Q2 revenue was $179 million, and segment non-GAAP operating margin was 2.8%. We are becoming more confident that the OLED technology found in smartphones will be adopted in notebook, PCs and tablets whose larger screen sizes would spur an increase in capital investments.

    移至顯示。第二季營收為 1.79 億美元,分部非 GAAP 營業利益率為 2.8%。我們越來越有信心,智慧型手機中的 OLED 技術將會被應用於筆記型電腦、個人電腦和平板電腦,這些產品的更大螢幕尺寸將刺激資本投資的增加。

  • Turning to cash flows in Q2. We generated nearly $1.4 billion in operating cash flow and nearly $1.14 billion in free cash flow. We distributed nearly $1.1 billion to shareholders, including $266 million in dividends and $820 million in buybacks. We repurchased 4.1 million shares at an average price of $197.77.

    轉向第二季的現金流。我們產生了近 14 億美元的營運現金流和近 11.4 億美元的自由現金流。我們向股東分配了近 11 億美元,其中包括 2.66 億美元的股息和 8.2 億美元的回購。我們以平均價格 197.77 美元回購了 410 萬股。

  • Now I'll share our guidance for Q3. We expect revenue of $6.65 billion, plus or minus $400 million, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.01, plus or minus $0.18. Within this outlook, we expect Semi Systems revenue of around $4.8 billion, AGS revenue of about $1.57 billion and display revenue of around $245 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 47% and non-GAAP operating expenses to be around $1.26 billion. Finally, we are modeling a tax rate of 12.3%.

    現在我將分享我們對第三季的指導。我們預計營收為 66.5 億美元,上下浮動 4 億美元,非 GAAP 每股收益為 2.01 美元,上下浮動 0.18 美元。在此展望下,我們預期 Semi Systems 營收約為 48 億美元,AGS 營收約 15.7 億美元,顯示器營收約 2.45 億美元。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 47%,非 GAAP 營業費用約為 12.6 億美元。最後,我們模擬的稅率為 12.3%。

  • Thank you. And now, Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

    謝謝。現在,麥克,我們開始問答環節。

  • Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

    Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

  • Thanks, Brice. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

    謝謝,布萊斯。 (操作員指令) 操作員,請開始。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald.

    我們的第一個問題來自 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst

  • I guess would love for you to talk about your visibility today and how your ongoing conversations are going with your large customers as it pertains both to your outlook for kind of second half versus first half on a calendar basis as well as building that potential backlog into calendar '25.

    我想請您談談您今天的知名度,以及您與大客戶的持續對話進展如何,因為這既涉及到您對下半年與上半年的展望,也涉及到在日曆基礎上建立潛在的積壓訂單到日曆'25。

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Okay. Great. C.J., thanks for the question. So when we look at our business and think about the largest customers, as we look at Q3 and our guidance for Q3, we know that the DRAM shipments that we've had for China that we called out that were fairly high in Q1 and Q2 are falling off in the second half. And what we've been expecting is that ICAPS strength and leading logic strength would backfill that drop-off in DRAM.

    好的。偉大的。 C.J.,謝謝你的提問。因此,當我們審視我們的業務並考慮最大的客戶時,當我們回顧第三季度和我們對第三季度的預測時,我們知道,我們在中國市場 DRAM 出貨量在第一季和第二季相當高,但在下半年卻有所下降。我們一直期待 ICAPS 實力和領先的邏輯實力將填補 DRAM 的下降。

  • And that's exactly what we see happening in Q3. And that's consistent on the leading logic side with the advent of gate-all-around process technology and equipment beginning to ship earnest -- in earnest for the HVM ramp that will be upcoming. And I think that's a good indication of what we're expecting in the second half. We talked about whether leading logic and ICAPS would be able to fill in for the drop-off in China DRAM, and that's exactly what we see in Q3.

    這正是我們在第三季看到的情況。這與領先邏輯方面的情況一致,環柵製程技術和設備的出現開始認真出貨,為即將到來的 HVM 成長做好準備。我認為這很好地預示了我們對下半年的期望。我們討論了領先的邏輯和 ICAPS 是否能夠彌補中國 DRAM 的下滑,這正是我們在第三季度看到的情況。

  • And then when we look ahead to '25, we'll point to the same fundamental ramp for leading logic. That will be gate-all-around. Gary highlighted in his remarks that we expected $2.5 billion of business related to gate-all-around shipments in '24. And we expect to be able to grow that significantly in '25 as that process technology ramps towards HVM, high-volume manufacturing.

    然後,當我們展望25年時,我們會指出領先邏輯的相同基本趨勢。那將是環門式的。加里在演講中強調,我們預計2024年與環繞柵極出貨量相關的業務額將達到25億美元。隨著製程技術向 HVM 即大批量生產方向發展,我們預計在 25 年能夠大幅成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的 Stacy Rasgon。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • Brice, I wanted to -- and Gary, I wanted to follow up on that sort of qualitative 2025 outlook. So I guess I heard you right, you said $2.5 billion gate-all-around this year, doubling next year or more. So $2.5 billion of incremental year-over-year growth from gate-all-around, it sounds like you said the advanced packaging had the opportunity to double again over time, so that should be growing. HBM, in theory, should be growing.

    布萊斯,我想——加里,我想跟進這種定性的 2025 年展望。所以我想我聽到的沒錯,您說今年的門控總成本為 25 億美元,明年將增加一倍甚至更多。因此,全柵封裝的同比增長率為 25 億美元,聽起來您說先進封裝有機會隨著時間的推移再次翻倍,所以這個數字應該會增長。從理論上來說,HBM 應該會成長。

  • ICAPS, I know, has been a little weaker than it was. It feels like it's bottomed just given what we're seeing that ought to grow. And I mean NAND flash is -- for you guys is pretty close to 0 right now as well. So the other -- I mean how do I think about like -- you've talked about overdelivering versus the market. Like let's say the WFE market was flat next year. Given those drivers, how would I think about how you guys could grow relative to a market like that given those drivers?

    我知道 ICAPS 現在比以前弱了一些。從我們看到的應該增長的情況來看,感覺它已經觸底了。我的意思是 NAND 快閃記憶體——現在對你們來說也接近 0。那麼另一個——我的意思是我該如何看待——您談到了與市場相比的超額交付。比如說,明年 WFE 市場將保持穩定。考慮到這些驅動因素,我認為你們如何在這樣的市場中成長?

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Yes. Thanks, Stacy, for the question. So the way -- our perspective, we start with the longer-term view. And as Gary described, we're investing in the key inflections for the fastest-growing markets. And so our perspective, if you stand back and think over many quarters or the next several years, is that the leading logic technologies like gate-all-around and backside power, the advanced packaging, HBM memory, our services business, we think all of those will grow faster than the average market and will help us gain share. And so it's harder to call any particular quarter or a short time period in the near future, but that would be our perspective.

    是的。謝謝史黛西提出這個問題。因此,我們的觀點是從較長的眼光開始的。正如加里所描述的,我們正在投資成長最快的市場的關鍵轉折點。因此,如果您回顧並思考多個季度或未來幾年,我們的觀點是,領先的邏輯技術(例如環繞閘極和背面電源)、先進封裝、HBM 記憶體以及我們的服務業務,我們認為所有這些都將比平均市場成長更快,並將幫助我們獲得份額。因此,很難預測近期任何特定季度或短時期的情況,但這只是我們的觀點。

  • And I think from an ICAPS perspective, you called out gate-all-around and ICAPS and DRAM and NAND, I think, thinking about all of them. We've talked about our DRAM share having improved over 10 percentage points over the last 10 years. And we expect that technology has great tailwinds. We talked about how HBM and utilization in DRAM is improving. So that's a positive. And if we think about ICAPS, the market, we have 3 quarters here that you can see, 2 -- our first 2 that are closed and our Q3 guidance. And ICAPS is very strong in those quarters and grows in Q3 to fill in some of that China DRAM business that drops off.

    我認為從 ICAPS 的角度來看,您提到了環柵技術、ICAPS、DRAM 和 NAND,我想,您會考慮所有這些。我們說過,過去 10 年我們的 DRAM 份額提高了 10 多個百分點。我們預計科技將迎來巨大的順風。我們討論了 HBM 和 DRAM 中的利用率如何提高。這是積極的。如果我們考慮 ICAPS 市場,我們這裡有 3 個季度,你可以看到,前 2 個季度已經結束,還有我們的第三季度指引。 ICAPS 在這些季度表現非常強勁,並在第三季度成長,以填補中國 DRAM 業務的部分下滑。

  • And then finally, gate-all-around, the $2.5 billion that Gary highlighted, that's not just the incremental. That's our shipments for the entire business that are associated with gate-all-around that are shipping this year, and we do expect that to grow next year.

    最後,Gary 強調的 25 億美元不僅僅是增量。這是我們今年與 Gate-all-around 相關的整個業務的出貨量,我們預計明年的出貨量將會成長。

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Stacy, this is Gary. Really, the big focus for us is enabling and winning major device architecture inflections. So when you break out all of these different device segments, certainly, foundry/logic, leading edge, the opportunity there for us to grow is significant because we have a very high share of those big inflections. The gate-all-around, backside power delivery, wiring is a real strength for us.

    史黛西,這是加里。實際上,我們最大的關注點是實現並贏得主要設備架構的轉變。因此,當你突破所有這些不同的設備領域時,當然,在代工/邏輯、前沿領域,我們成長的機會是巨大的,因為我們在這些大拐點中佔有非常高的份額。環柵、背面電源傳輸和佈線對我們來說是一個真正的優勢。

  • As Brice mentioned, in DRAM, we gained 10 points of overall DRAM share over the last 10 years. And if I look forward at the architecture inflections in DRAM, we're even better positioned. Those will be much more materials-intensive, materials engineering-enabled. And that's going to be a really good position for us.

    正如 Brice 所提到的,在 DRAM 領域,我們在過去 10 年中獲得了 10 個百分點的整體 DRAM 份額。如果我展望 DRAM 架構的變化,我們的地位就更有利。這些將更加材料密集,更加依賴材料工程。這對我們來說是一個非常好的職位。

  • We also talked about packaging. We've increased our view of packaging in '24 to $1.7 billion. But as I mentioned and Brice reiterated, we have an opportunity to double advanced packaging -- our advanced packaging business. In HBM, that's -- we've increased that growth from 4x to 6x this year.

    我們也討論了包裝。我們將 24 年的包裝支出預期提高到 17 億美元。但正如我所提到的和布萊斯所重申的,我們有機會將先進封裝業務翻一番。在 HBM 中,今年我們的成長率從 4 倍提高到了 6 倍。

  • And the last one is our services business, 19 consecutive quarters year-over-year, where we've seen growth. And with these highly complex architecture inflections, it gives us a really great opportunity to add more value with our services business. Also as people are moving into new locations where they don't have an experienced workforce, we've talked about double-digit growth in services. Right now, that's a $6 billion run rate, but that's adding significant growth as we go forward. So there's just a few other thoughts.

    最後一個是我們的服務業務,連續 19 個季度年增。透過這些高度複雜的架構變化,我們有一個絕佳的機會透過服務業務增加更多價值。此外,隨著人們遷移到缺乏經驗豐富的勞動力的新地方,服務業也出現了兩位數的成長。目前的運行率為 60 億美元,但隨著我們向前發展,這將實現顯著的成長。還有一些其他的想法。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • But you said $2.5 billion this year from gate-all-around and more than double that in -- did I hear that wrong? Does that suggest $5 billion in gate-all-around in 2025?

    但您說今年 Gate-all-around 的收入為 25 億美元,而 2006 年的收入是這個數字的兩倍多——我聽錯了嗎?這是否意味著 2025 年環繞閘極市場的價值將達到 50 億美元?

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Yes, that's what...

    是的,就是這樣...

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • Did I misunderstand what you said?

    我是不是誤解你的意思了?

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • No, I think that math is correct.

    不,我認為數學是正確的。

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Yes, that's right, Stacy. So that's not just the increment. That's the entire equipment sales that we'll have for that technology. So $2.5 billion for this year and opportunity to double that next year.

    是的,史黛西,沒錯。所以這不僅僅是增量。這就是我們針對該技術的全部設備銷售額。因此,今年的預算為 25 億美元,明年預計將翻倍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Mark Lipacis from Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Mark Lipacis。

  • Mark John Lipacis - Senior MD

    Mark John Lipacis - Senior MD

  • Maybe a question for Gary. Gary, when you talk about like investing more in materials engineering, it seems like you're kind of climbing up the value chain to the place where your -- it used to be your customers' domain. And a lot of times when you see companies moving up the value chain and adding more value, ultimately, you see that reflected in improving margins.

    這可能是給加里的一個問題。加里,當您談到在材料工程方面投入更多資金時,似乎您正在沿著價值鏈向上攀升,到達曾經是您的客戶領域。很多時候,當你看到公司在價值鏈中不斷提升並增加更多價值時,最終你會看到這反映在利潤率的提高上。

  • So appreciate that you engage in partnerships and that's the spirit. But like if you're adding more value, it seems like that ultimately, at the end of the day, should come back to you in higher profitability. And I'm wondering if you could just talk philosophically about that. Like how -- is that something you would expect to see happen? Or does that manifest in other ways?

    非常感謝你們建立合作關係,這就是我們的精神。但如果你增加了更多價值,那麼最終似乎就會帶來更高的獲利能力。我想知道您是否可以從哲學角度談談這個問題。就像—這是您希望看到發生的事情嗎?或以其他方式表現出來?

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Mark. So if you look at the industry overall, all of our customers are racing to be first to market to deliver those major device architecture inflections that determine their competitive position. So gate-all-around, backside power, those new DRAM architectures and packaging is becoming more and more important to power performance and costs. So that is really what shapes the competitive landscape in the industry. And it's very, very clear. We're working with our customers for technology generations out into the future.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,馬克。所以,如果從整個產業來看,我們所有的客戶都在競相搶佔市場先機,推出決定其競爭地位的重大設備架構變化。因此,環柵、背面電源、這些新的 DRAM 架構和封裝對於電源效能和成本變得越來越重要。這才是真正決定產業競爭格局的因素。而且非常非常清晰。我們正與客戶共同努力,共同推動未來的技術進步。

  • So we have very high visibility, and this broad and connected portfolio that we have gives us an opportunity to engage with customers in those early and very deep relationships on those architecture inflections. And as we look forward, we do see materials engineering as a percentage of spend and the relative contribution increasing. And Applied has clear leadership, especially with this broad, connected portfolio. We built integration capability inside Applied that is really tremendous and really co-innovating with our customers as they're driving those architecture inflections.

    因此,我們具有非常高的知名度,而且我們擁有的廣泛而互聯的產品組合使我們有機會與客戶就這些架構變​​化建立早期和非常深厚的關係。展望未來,我們確實看到材料工程在支出中所佔的比例以及相對貢獻不斷增加。應用材料公司擁有明顯的領導地位,尤其是擁有如此廣泛、互聯的產品組合。我們在應用材料公司內部建立了非常強大的整合能力,並且在客戶推動架構變革的過程中真正與客戶進行了共同創新。

  • So I do believe, for sure, that we will be creating more value in those relationships with our customers, and that certainly is valuable for them. And our focus is to capture more value as we're delivering more value with them. So your basic question, I agree with your thoughts.

    因此我確信,我們將在與客戶的關係中創造更多價值,這對他們來說無疑是有價值的。我們的重點是,在為他們提供更多價值的同時,獲得更多價值。所以你的基本問題,我同意你的想法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

  • Gary, maybe back to the gate-all-around. So you're raising the forecast there by $1 billion. I think on, I think, HBM, you're raising it by another $100 million or so. Is that all going to show up in July and October? So does it mean that conceptually, the second half of the year is over $1 billion higher than what you thought before?

    加里,也許回到門前。所以你將預測金額提高了 10 億美元。我認為,我認為,HBM,你會再將其提高 1 億美元左右。這一切都會在七月和十月顯現嗎?那麼從概念上來說,這是否意味著下半年的收入比您之前預想的高出 10 億美元以上?

  • And then on gate-all-around, what is driving such a significant growth versus what you thought before? $1 billion increase over $1.5 billion base is a very strong number. So I'm just curious, what are the kind of the qualitative factors? And then just also quantitatively, does it mean that second half is $1 billion higher -- $1.1 billion higher than what you thought before?

    那麼就環繞閘極技術而言,與您之前想像的相比,是什麼推動瞭如此顯著的成長?在 15 億美元的基礎上增加了 10 億美元,這是一個非常強勁的數字。所以我很好奇,這些定性因素有哪些?那麼從數量上看,這是否意味著下半年將比您之前預想的高出 10 億美元——11 億美元?

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Vivek, it's Brice. I'll just do a clarification here. This quarter -- we decided last quarter when we talked about the incremental revenue for gate-all-around that it was a little bit confusing. So we changed -- in this quarter, we're talking about all of our revenue that's associated with the gate-all-around transistor and wiring. And so that's not just the increment. So the $2.5 billion that we're talking about this quarter is not supposed to be interpreted as an increase relative to the $1 billion we talked about last quarter. We're just changing the basis. Now we're just quoting all of the business that's associated with the gate-all-around product. So hopefully, that helps.

    維韋克,我是布萊斯。我只是在這裡做一點澄清。本季—我們上個季度在談論環繞門的增量收入時發現這有點令人困惑。因此我們進行了改變——在本季度,我們討論的是與環柵電晶體和佈線相關的所有收入。所以這不僅僅是增量。因此,我們本季談論的 25 億美元不應被理解為相對於上個季度談論的 10 億美元的成長。我們只是改變基礎。現在我們僅引用與環柵產品相關的所有業務。希望這能有所幫助。

  • So as far as answering the question about what's driving the increase, I don't think our perspective has changed very much. It's $2.5 billion for this year. It can grow significantly next year as the technology ramps. And then what I would say is you do see some of that in our Q3 guide. So as you know, we took down -- or we're dropping off the incremental China DRAM shipments that we had. And in the second half, we're filling that in with ICAPS strength and growing leading logic shipments that are driven by gate-all-around.

    因此,就回答導致這種成長的原因而言,我認為我們的觀點並沒有太大改變。今年是 25 億美元。隨著技術的發展,明年它可能會大幅成長。然後我想說的是,您確實在我們的第三季指南中看到了其中的一些內容。如你所知,我們減少了—或者說我們正在放棄中國 DRAM 的增量出貨量。在下半年,我們將利用 ICAPS 的優勢來填補這一空白,並增加由環繞閘極技術推動的領先邏輯出貨量。

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Vivek, let me add, relative to kind of what drives the incremental spending, these technologies where you're improving device performance to drive current, leakage, power consumption, all of those things, are incredibly difficult. And so the customers -- and it's really all about this materials magic that we're able to provide with that broad portfolio of different types of technologies.

    Vivek,讓我補充一點,相對於推動增量支出的因素,這些透過提高設備性能來驅動電流、洩漏、功耗等的技術都非常困難。因此,對於客戶來說——這實際上都是關於我們能夠透過不同類型的技術提供的廣泛材料魔力。

  • So step counts are increasing at every one of those different technology nodes as they are driving those road maps for performance power to meet the -- especially for high-performance computing, AI computing demand type of applications. So again, those are very, very, very difficult technologies. Whether it's 100 billion transistors in a GPU or 100 kilometers of wiring in an applications processor, those are really amazing, amazing technology accomplishments with materials. That's what drives that incremental spending.

    因此,隨著它們推動效能路線圖的發展以滿足需求(尤其是高效能運算、人工智慧運算需求類型的應用),每個不同技術節點的步數都在增加。所以,這些都是非常非常困難的技術。無論是 GPU 中的 1000 億個晶體管,還是應用處理器中的 100 公里長的佈線,這些都是令人驚嘆的、令人驚嘆的材料技術成就。這就是推動增量支出的因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso from Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

  • Christopher Caso - MD

    Christopher Caso - MD

  • The question is on advanced packaging. And you were pretty specific with what you're expecting this year. You spoke about the opportunity to double that again. You didn't provide a time frame on that. So if you could help us with some of the time frame on when you expect to double that. And just in terms of what's driving that, we know there's advanced packaging in logic and HBM. What's the mix of that in terms of what's driving the expectations higher?

    問題是關於先進封裝的。您對今年的期望非常具體。您談到了再次將其翻倍的機會。您沒有提供相關時間框架。因此,如果您能幫助我們了解預計何時將這一數字翻倍的時間範圍的話。就其推動因素而言,我們知道邏輯和 HBM 中有先進的封裝。就推動預期上升的因素而言,這些因素有什麼組合呢?

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Chris, this is Gary. So this -- the whole focus around advanced packaging heterogeneous integration is really a major drive across the entire industry. When you look at AI servers or any of these different kinds of applications, you see tremendous innovation in the high-bandwidth memory. You see tremendous innovation in how you're connecting together all of those high-performance logic chips and memory chips. And we really see the growth there being very, very significant because it's so important to the industry's road map as kind of classic Moore's Law has slowed down significantly. This is another major driver of how the industry will innovate going forward.

    克里斯,這是加里。因此,對先進封裝異質整合的全面關注實際上是整個行業的重大推動力。當你查看 AI 伺服器或任何不同類型的應用程式時,你會看到高頻寬記憶體中的巨大創新。您會看到,在將所有這些高效能邏輯晶片和記憶體晶片連接在一起的方式中,存在著巨大的創新。我們確實看到那裡的成長非常非常顯著,因為它對於產業路線圖非常重要,因為經典的摩爾定律已經顯著放緩。這是推動產業未來創新的另一個主要動力。

  • And with Applied, we have the broadest portfolio of technologies, PVD, CVD, CMP plating, etch. We've added hybrid bonding, digital lithography, eBeam test. We have a very broad portfolio. And as we see those road maps -- and this is why I come back to architecture inflections are really what drives your incremental business going forward. So we can see the road maps for our foundry/logic customers, for memory customers. All of them are investing very heavily in these types of technologies. And some of these areas also that are new innovations from Applied will help us drive that business 2x higher. And I think that the compound annual growth rate keeps going up from there.

    借助應用材料公司,我們擁有最廣泛的技術組合,包括 PVD、CVD、CMP 電鍍和蝕刻。我們添加了混合鍵合、數位光刻、電子束測試。我們擁有非常廣泛的產品組合。正如我們所看到的那些路線圖——這也是我回到架構變化的原因,這才是真正推動您業務不斷進步的動力。因此,我們可以看到針對我們的代工/邏輯客戶和記憶體客戶的路線圖。他們都對這類技術投入了大量資金。這些領域中的一些也是應用材料公司的新創新,將幫助我們將業務提高一倍。我認為複合年增長率將會持續上升。

  • The other advantage that we have besides this broad portfolio in the deep, multi-generation connection that we have with all of our customers is our full-flow packaging lab in Singapore. We're working with leading customers on those next-generation innovations, Chris. So we have pretty good line of sight to what those inflections look like, the architecture inflections will look like in a very strong position to grow our share as those inflections come to market. We're not giving a specific time frame on the doubling. It will happen over a number of years. But very, very optimistic about our opportunities in packaging.

    除了我們與所有客戶之間建立的深厚、多代聯繫的廣泛產品組合之外,我們的另一個優勢是位於新加坡的全流程包裝實驗室。我們正在與領先的客戶合作開發下一代創新,克里斯。因此,我們對這些變化的樣子有很好的了解,隨著這些變化進入市場,架構變化將處於非常有利的地位,可以擴大我們的份額。我們沒有給出翻倍的具體時間框架。這將需要很多年的時間。但我們對包裝領域的機會非常非常樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Srini Pajjuri from Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Srini Pajjuri。

  • Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - MD

    Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - MD

  • Brice, I have a question on China. I think last quarter, you said you expect China to normalize to about 30% or so by the end of this year. So my question is, is that still the expectation? And then it looks like ICAPS is still holding up pretty well. So is the decline primarily DRAM going forward? And I'm just curious as to given what we are hearing about what we're seeing in the end markets of ICAPS, I mean it looks like the broader analog is still relatively weak and auto is kind of mixed. I'm just curious as to what's driving the strength in ICAPS.

    布萊斯,我有一個關於中國的問題。我記得上個季度您曾說過,預計中國經濟到今年年底將恢復正常化至 30% 左右。所以我的問題是,這仍然是我們的期望嗎?看起來 ICAPS 仍然表現良好。那麼未來衰退主要是 DRAM 嗎?我只是好奇,根據我們所聽到的有關 ICAPS 終端市場的情況,我的意思是,看起來更廣泛的模擬仍然相對較弱,而汽車則有點混雜。我只是好奇 ICAPS 實力的驅動因素是什麼。

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Okay. Thanks, Srini. Yes, first of all, our mix as we move to the second half of the year will normalize with respect to China as a percent of our total revenue. So it will be closer to 30% as expected. And it's the dynamic that you highlighted. We had some catch-up DRAM shipments to particular customers in China for the last 3 quarters. Those will fall off as we go through Q3 and Q4, and that really will bring our percentage of China revenue back down to -- closer to what's average over the last few years, which we'll call about 30%.

    好的。謝謝,Srini。是的,首先,隨著今年下半年的到來,我們的產品組合將按照中國市場占我們總收入的百分比進行正常化。因此它將接近預期的 30%。這就是您所強調的動態。過去三個季度,我們向中國的特定客戶追加了一些 DRAM 出貨量。隨著我們進入第三季度和第四季度,這些收入將會下降,這將使我們在中國的收入百分比回落到更接近過去幾年的平均水平,我們稱之為 30% 左右。

  • And then with respect to the mix of business. So as that DRAM business falls off, our ICAPS business and our leading-edge logic business does increase to fill that in. And so that's consistent with continued strength in ICAPS, which the rest of the market for us in China would be ICAPS-related.

    然後是關於業務組合。因此,隨著 DRAM 業務的下滑,我們的 ICAPS 業務和尖端邏輯業務將會成長來填補這一空白。

  • And I think you described it well. The end markets are mixed. So industrial and auto have been weaker. Smartphone, PC-related products have been slow but gaining some strength recently. And then as we've talked about image sensors, power chips, micro-controllers, a lot of those markets have been stronger. So it's been mixed end markets, but the customers are investing for forward-looking demand and to get capacity in place for forward-looking demand. And when we see utilization in those markets, we've seen it improve. So I think when people ask us for guidance, hopefully, the best thing we can tell you is Q1 and Q2 were very strong in ICAPS, and Q3 will be another strong quarter in the ICAPS market.

    我認為你描述得很好。終端市場漲跌互現。因此工業和汽車產業表現較弱。智慧型手機、個人電腦相關產品雖然發展緩慢,但最近有所增強。正如我們所討論的影像感測器、電源晶片、微控制器等市場,許多市場都變得更加強勁。因此,終端市場好壞參半,但客戶正在進行投資以滿足前瞻性需求,並準備好滿足前瞻性需求的產能。當我們看到這些市場的利用率時,我們已經看到它有所改善。因此,我認為當人們向我們尋求指導時,希望我們能告訴你的最好的事情是,第一季和第二季 ICAPS 表現非常強勁,而第三季將是 ICAPS 市場另一個強勁的季度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿蒂夫馬利克 (Atif Malik)。

  • Atif Malik - Director and Semiconductor Capital Equipment & Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

    Atif Malik - Director and Semiconductor Capital Equipment & Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

  • I have a question on gate-all-around as well. Very strong outlook, $2.5 billion, doubling to next year. Is the customer funnel for this demand pretty broad across the 4 foundries? And also if you can rank order for us in the $2.5 billion FE, ALD, patterning. Like what's driving the most demand?

    我對 gate-all-around 也有一個疑問。前景非常強勁,達到 25 億美元,到明年將翻倍。這 4 家代工廠對此需求的客戶管道是否相當廣泛?另外,如果您能按照 25 億美元的 FE、ALD 和模式為我們進行排序的話,例如,什麼因素推動了最大的需求?

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • I think -- I'll take the first part. I think that demand is across our customer base. So it's not one single customer, but we won't share any details about the relative balance between customers. And then from a device mix perspective, Gary -- or I'm sorry, equipment mix, I don't know if there's anything you would highlight there.

    我想——我會選擇第一部分。我認為這種需求存在於我們整個客戶群中。因此,這不是單一的客戶,但我們不會分享有關客戶之間相對平衡的任何詳細資訊。然後從設備組合的角度來看,Gary - 或者對不起,設備組合,我不知道您是否想強調什麼。

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. I think again, one of the advantages that we have is this broad portfolio of technologies along with integrated tools and also our integration engineering, where we're working with customers, they're really co-innovating on these different technology inflections.

    是的。我再次認為,我們的優勢之一是擁有廣泛的技術組合、整合工具以及整合工程,我們與客戶合作,他們真正地在這些不同的技術變化上共同創新。

  • So if you look at gate-all-around, we have FE, PVD, ALD, selective removal etch, thermal processing, implant, CMP and eBeam. So it's a very broad -- a broad portfolio. And I'm not going to break out all of those different pieces. But what I would say is our ability to connect that portfolio together is really a tremendous strength in our ability to co-optimize as you're thinking about -- and we've done this back in FinFET also, where we were able to co-optimize and innovate in how you're building those structures so that you can improve power and performance. And we're doing the same thing with gate-all-around.

    因此,如果你看一下環柵,我們有 FE、PVD、ALD、選擇性去除蝕刻、熱處理、注入、CMP 和 eBeam。所以這是一個非常廣泛的投資組合。我不會把所有這些不同的部分分開來。但我想說的是,我們將這些產品組合在一起的能力確實是我們共同優化能力的巨大優勢,正如您所想的那樣,我們也在 FinFET 中做到了這一點,我們能夠共同優化和創新您構建這些結構的方式,以便您可以提高功率和性能。我們對環柵技術也做了同樣的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Does that answer your question?

    這回答了你的問題嗎?

  • Atif Malik - Director and Semiconductor Capital Equipment & Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

    Atif Malik - Director and Semiconductor Capital Equipment & Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • I had 2 quick ones, one on HBM and the other one on NAND. So in HBM, your customers would tell us that they're sold out, certainly for '24. For the most part, they're sold out for '25 as well. So my guess is you've got pretty good visibility into next year. Gary, you talked about overall advanced packaging doubling over the medium to long term. But when you zoom into HBM, could that business for you multiply again in '25 on a year-over-year basis?

    我有 2 個快捷方法,一個在 HBM 上,另一個在 NAND 上。因此在 HBM,您的客戶會告訴我們它們已經售罄,肯定是 24 年的。大部分 25 年的商品也已售完。所以我猜你對明年會有相當好的了解。加里,您談到了中長期內先進封裝的整體成長翻倍。但是當你放大 HBM 時,你的業務在 25 年是否能夠年成長?

  • And then on the NAND side, the business continues to be pretty depressed. Your customers, their profitability is improving. Cash flow is improving or becoming less bad. Are you starting to see purchase orders from your customers come back? Or what do they need to see for them to spend on WFE again?

    而在NAND方面,業務持續低迷。您的客戶,他們的獲利能力正在提高。現金流正在改善或變得不那麼糟糕。您是否開始看到客戶的採購訂單回來了?或者他們需要看到什麼才能再次在 WFE 上花錢?

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Okay. Toshiya, it's Brice. I'll start and then Gary may add something on the HBM. So on the sold-out comment, what we do -- we have seen utilizations improve across the DRAM wafer starts. We've seen the allocation to HBM from a wafer start perspective increase from 5% to probably something closer to 20%. That said, it's not 100% utilized. So you could speculate what the -- if there's some restraints, it could be in the packaging side, and we have seen orders for HBM going up. So we'll have to let you think about that and talk to those vendors from that perspective.

    好的。 Toshiya,我是Brice。我先開始,然後 Gary 可能會在 HBM 上添加一些內容。因此,關於售罄的評論,我們所做的是——我們已經看到 DRAM 晶圓的利用率有所提高。從晶圓起始角度來看,我們看到 HBM 的分配從 5% 增加到接近 20%。也就是說,它的利用率還未達 100%。因此,你可以推測一下——如果存在一些限制,那可能是在包裝方面,而且我們已經看到 HBM 的訂單正在增加。所以我們必須讓您考慮這個問題,並從這個角度與那些供應商進行交談。

  • On the NAND side, our perspective on NAND is that Moore's Law is still very much alive in NAND. The bit density is increasing with each generation of NAND fairly aggressively, and it's meeting the demand function for increased bits. And what that really means is that the business we see in NAND is for technology upgrades, more technology upgrades, not really new wafer starts. So that's what we expect to see as we move forward. And overall, we expect NAND to grow at the speed of semiconductors.

    在 NAND 方面,我們對 NAND 的看法是摩爾定律在 NAND 中仍然非常有效。每一代 NAND 的位元密度都在迅速增加,滿足了對增加位元的需求。這實際上意味著我們在 NAND 中看到的業務是為了技術升級,更多的技術升級,而不是真正的新晶圓的啟動。這正是我們期望在未來看到的。總體而言,我們預計 NAND 將以半導體的速度成長。

  • It's -- obviously, storage has a very important part, and several of the vendors called out how important storage is even for AI and that it will grow. So I think for us, it's been slow, but we expect it to grow over time and memory in total to be about 1/3 of our sales for WFE. And then, Gary, back to you whether anything specific on HBM...

    顯然,儲存佔有非常重要的部分,並且一些供應商強調了儲存對於人工智慧的重要性以及它將會成長。所以我認為對於我們來說,它一直很慢,但我們預計它會隨著時間的推移而增長,總記憶體將佔 WFE 銷售額的 1/3 左右。然後,Gary,回到你身邊,關於 HBM 是否有任何具體內容...

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Really, Toshiya, nothing really too much more beyond what Brice was talking about. And we have seen the demand for HBM strengthening. We went from about 4x increase to 6x increase from the last time that we talked to you guys. And I would say that we still are seeing incremental demand going forward. So that pull is still there from customers. We're not giving any point estimate for next year, but we do continue to see stronger demand in that segment.

    是的。真的,Toshiya,除了 Brice 所談論的內容之外,沒有什麼太多內容了。我們已經看到了對 HBM 加強的需求。與我們上次與你們交談時相比,我們的增長量從大約 4 倍增加到了 6 倍。我想說的是,我們仍然會看到未來需求的增量。因此,來自客戶的吸引力仍然存在。我們沒有對明年做出任何預測,但我們確實繼續看到該領域的需求更加強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Gary, I had a question on backside power delivery. It seems that the industry has 2 approaches to it. One is the backside wiring with direct contact with the transistors. Another once is the nano-TFE approach. I'm kind of curious. You've spoken about the 100 -- incremental $1 billion SAM for 100,000 wafer starts per month. How does it split between those 2 approaches? And also, can you quantify what kind of revenues you expect this year and next year for Applied in backside power deliveries?

    加里,我有一個關於背面供電的問題。看來業界對此採取了兩種方法。一種是與電晶體直接接觸的背面佈線。另一種方法是奈米 TFE 方法。我有點好奇。您曾談到每月生產 10 萬片晶圓的 SAM 增量為 10 億美元。這兩種方法之間如何區分?另外,您能否量化預計今年和明年應用材料在背面電源交付的收入?

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Krish, yes, I don't want to talk too much about the specific architectures that customers are using. That's confidential for all of those different customers. I would say that going forward, that direct connect to the backside is the path that everybody is focused on. So I think over time, that will grow a fairly significant amount -- well, both of those approaches will grow a fairly significant amount. And we're deeply engaged with customers on that inflection.

    Krish,是的,我不想談太多客戶正在使用的具體架構。這對所有不同的客戶來說都是保密的。我想說,展望未來,直接連接到後端是每個人都關注的道路。所以我認為隨著時間的推移,這個數字將會發生相當大的增長——好吧,這兩種方法都會發生相當大的增長。而我們在這轉變過程中與客戶進行了深入的溝通。

  • We're leading in wiring overall. We have a very, very high share of wiring. And so wiring going to the backside, we've said that, that gives us an opportunity of 50% of that spend when that inflection happens. So we're supporting both of those different types of approaches for the backside, but I don't want to get too specific in terms of which one do we see bigger over time. I think that it could move to the direct connect.

    我們在整體佈線方面處於領先地位。我們的佈線份額非常非常高。因此,我們說過,當發生這種拐點時,佈線到後面會為我們帶來 50% 的支出機會。因此,我們支持這兩種不同類型的後端方法,但我不想太具體地談論哪一種方法會隨著時間的推移而變得更大。我認為它可以轉向直接連接。

  • But that timing, I don't want to give specifically because that's going to be each one of different customers' road maps. Relative to timing for revenue, it's pretty small for us right now in 2024. It will grow in '25, but the ramp -- significant ramp for backside power is still out beyond '25 in revenue.

    但我不想具體透露具體時間,因為這將是每個不同客戶的路線圖。相對於收入時機,對我們來說,2024 年現在的收入相當少。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀證券的提摩西‧阿庫裡。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Brice, I had a 2-part question on China DRAM. And the first part is you talked about it coming down $500 million. Is that stepping all the way down in fiscal Q3? So what's the assumed step-down in China DRAM for fiscal Q3? And then more broadly, of the $1.6 billion worth of DRAM business, I'm wondering if you can kind of help us figure out how much of that is China. If I look at Korea and I look at how much that did, it looks like about $1 billion of the $1.6 billion DRAM revenue is China. Can you confirm whether that's in the right ballpark?

    Brice,我有兩個關於中國 DRAM 的問題。第一部分您談到了降幅達到 5 億美元。這是否會在第三財季全面下降?那麼,預計中國第三財季 DRAM 產量將下降多少?更廣泛地說,在價值 16 億美元的 DRAM 業務中,我想知道您是否可以幫助我們計算其中有多少來自中國。如果我看一下韓國,看看其貢獻了多少,看起來 16 億美元的 DRAM 收入中約有 10 億美元來自中國。您能否確認這是否是正確的範圍?

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Tim, thanks for the question. The only quantification that I gave in prior quarters was that our DRAM as a whole was up more than $500 million in the quarters where we had that incremental. So I think I'll just leave it at that and say it's more than $500 million in each of the last 3 quarters.

    提姆,謝謝你的提問。我在前幾個季度給出的唯一量化數據是,在出現增量的幾個季度中,我們的 DRAM 整體成長了 5 億多美元。因此我想我就此打住,過去三個季度中每個季度的金額都超過 5 億美元。

  • And as we look into the second half, it doesn't drop completely to 0 in Q3, but it drops significantly, and then it's pretty close to 0 in Q4. And our mix to China revenue for the company, as I highlighted to an earlier question, will be about in the range of 30%, which is normal for us. So I think that's as close as I can get on that. Thanks for the question.

    而當我們觀察下半年時,它並沒有在第三季完全下降到 0,但下降幅度很大,並且在第四季度非常接近 0。正如我在先前的問題中所強調的那樣,我們公司來自中國的收入佔比將在 30% 左右,這對我們來說是正常的。所以我認為這已經是我能得到的最接近的答案了。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

  • Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Senior Equity Analyst

    Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Senior Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to kind of try to understand just the trends that you're seeing in ICAPS. Can you help us just understand the difference in the growth that you're seeing from China versus non-China? Because it sounds like as we look at China revenue normalizing, the DRAM falling off, obviously, the rest of that is mostly just ICAPS. So can you help us just kind of understand the trends between China and non-China?

    我想嘗試了解您在 ICAPS 中看到的趨勢。您能否幫助我們理解中國和非中國之間的成長差異?因為聽起來,當我們看到中國收入正常化時,DRAM 顯然會下降,其餘的大部分只是 ICAPS。那麼您能幫助我們了解中國和非中國之間的趨勢嗎?

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Joe, thanks for the question. Yes, for China, what I would say is the last 3 quarters have been very strong. So if we're speculating about a slowdown or a digestion period, one of the reasons I didn't reemphasize that is we're kind of going by what we're seeing. So we had 2 strong quarters, Q1, Q2. Our Q3 guide again has strength in ICAPS and a strong fourth quarter for China.

    喬,謝謝你的提問。是的,對於中國來說,我想說過去三個季度的表現非常強勁。因此,如果我們推測經濟放緩或消化期,我沒有重申這一點的原因之一是我們只是根據我們看到的情況進行判斷。所以我們有兩個強勁的季度,第一季和第二季。我們的第三季指南再次體現了 ICAPS 的強勁表​​現,中國在第四季也表現強勁。

  • When we think about the world right now, I think we have 3 regions growing and the rest of the regions not growing. So that corresponds with the end markets sort of being mixed at this point. Our view of China overall, the team showed a pie chart of the different device elements of WFE last year. ICAPS was about 40% of WFE by that pie chart on May 2 that was put out. China is our largest market in ICAPS, and we monitor that carefully.

    當我們思考現在的世界時,我認為有 3 個地區正在成長,其餘地區沒有成長。所以這與終端市場目前的混合狀況相對應。我們對中國整體的看法,團隊展示了去年 WFE 不同設備元素的圓餅圖。根據 5 月 2 日發布的圓餅圖,ICAPS 約佔 WFE 的 40%。中國是我們 ICAPS 最大的市場,我們對此密切關注。

  • We've got about -- we've got a large number of customers. We're tracking about 30 different -- more than 30 factory projects that are in ramp process. In other words, they have capacity. They're adding capacity. They're ramping. We're tracking utilizations. Utilizations are improving. We understand yields are improving. So we think that the China market will be a very large and important market for us going forward. We said we don't see a cliff for that market, and I think we'd stick by all those remarks at this point.

    我們已經擁有—我們擁有大量的客戶。我們正在追蹤大約 30 個不同的——超過 30 個處於提升過程中的工廠項目。換句話說,他們有能力。他們正在增加產能。他們正在加大力度。我們正在追蹤利用率。利用率正在提高。我們了解到收益率正在提高。因此我們認為中國市場對我們未來來說將會是一個非常龐大且重要的市場。我們說過,我們沒有看到該市場出現懸崖,而且我認為我們目前會堅持所有這些言論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan L. Sur - Executive Director and Head of U.S. Semiconductor & Semiconductor Capital Equipment

    Harlan L. Sur - Executive Director and Head of U.S. Semiconductor & Semiconductor Capital Equipment

  • As we transition from a more mature specialty ICAPS-driven growth profile to a leading edge, sort of advanced foundry/logic memory spending profile this year and going forward, this typically tends to be a strong tailwind for your process control and diagnostics portfolio, which leans very heavily on your most advanced tools and solutions, right? Because picture sizes get smaller, so better resolution required, but also new and more defecting yield challenges, right? So it's probably a driver of your leading-edge CFE-driven eBeam portfolio this year.

    隨著我們今年及未來從更成熟的專業 ICAPS 驅動的成長模式轉變為前沿、先進的代工/邏輯記憶體支出模式,這通常會成為您的製程控制和診斷產品組合的強勁順風,而這在很大程度上依賴於您最先進的工具和解決方案,對嗎?因為影像尺寸越來越小,所以需要更好的分辨率,但同時也帶來新的和更多缺陷的產量挑戰,對嗎?所以它可能是今年您領先的 CFE 驅動的 eBeam 產品組合的驅動因素。

  • Are you guys still seeing that portfolio grow like 4x this year? And how does the pipeline look for next year? And maybe mid- to longer term, like given the significant manufacturability challenges, does the Applied team see process control and diagnostics intensity rising faster than overall WFE intensity over the next few years?

    你們是否仍看到該投資組合今年成長了 4 倍?明年的規劃如何?也許從中期到長期來看,考慮到重大的可製造性挑戰,應用材料團隊是否認為未來幾年製程控制和診斷強度的上升速度將快於整體 WFE 強度?

  • Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Harlan. This is Gary. So I would say that for sure, the connection that we have with our eBeam technology and these major architecture inflections is a real advantage for us because, again, it's a race on who gets there first relative to those major architecture inflections and learning rate. How fast you learn is one of the determining factors. So having this unique capability is a real advantage for Applied.

    謝謝,哈蘭。這是加里。因此我可以肯定地說,我們與 eBeam 技術以及這些主要架構變化之間的聯繫對於我們來說是真正的優勢,因為再次強調,這是一場關於誰能率先到達這些主要架構變化和學習率的競賽。學習速度是決定性因素之一。因此,擁有這種獨特的能力對於應用材料公司來說是一個真正的優勢。

  • I mean obviously, it's a good growth driver for us from a revenue perspective. But that synergy with the rest of our broad portfolio, our connected portfolio, is a real advantage. On cold field emission, which is really one of the key technologies in the electron optics, it gives us the highest resolution, add up to 10x higher imaging speeds. So it really is highly differentiated. And we are still on track this year to grow our CFE systems revenue around 4x in '24, and that would represent about 50% of our total eBeam system sales.

    我的意思是,從收入角度來看,這顯然是我們一個很好的成長動力。但與我們廣泛的其他投資組合、我們的關聯投資組合的協同作用是一個真正的優勢。冷場發射是電子光學中的關鍵技術之一,它為我們提供了最高的分辨率,使成像速度提高了 10 倍。因此,它確實是高度差異化的。我們今年仍有望實現 CFE 系統營收在 24 年成長 4 倍左右,這將占我們 eBeam 系統總銷售額的 50% 左右。

  • And then when I look forward, again, I see PDC as a really great growth driver for Applied. We've had the strongest pipeline of new products than we've ever had. And the synergy with the rest of our process equipment business, all of that materials magic, materials innovation is increasing. So again, very, very optimistic about the shape of that business.

    當我再次展望未來時,我又看到PDC成為應用材料公司真正的巨大成長動力。我們擁有比以往更強大的新產品儲備。與我們其他製程設備業務的協同作用、所有材料的魔力、材料創新都在增加。因此,我對該業務的前景非常非常樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our final question for today comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna.

    我們今天的最後一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的梅赫迪·胡賽尼 (Mehdi Hosseini)。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Gary, you were talking about this inflection point technology, leading edge logic, HBM, DRAM and advanced packaging. But would it be fair to say that what is not in your backlog is the additional wafer capacity, especially for gate-all-around and memory, and that would be something that would be coming in, the POs be placed later this year for shipment in 2025?

    蓋瑞,您談到了這個轉​​捩點技術、前沿邏輯、HBM、DRAM 和先進封裝。但是,是否可以公平地說,您的積壓訂單中沒有額外的晶圓產能,特別是環柵和內存產能,而這些產能將會在今年晚些時候下達,以便在 2025 年發貨?

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Yes. Mehdi, it's Brice. I guess I'll take that one. We do expect -- I can't tell if it's a greenfield question or not, but we do expect increased wafer starts across definitely ICAPS, definitely leading logic, a smaller amount in DRAM. And probably the place where we don't really expect increased wafer starts is in NAND, but that will still be upgrades. So most of the memory technologies are upgrades. But it will be a combination of new technologies and new plant and equipment across the board.

    是的。梅迪,我是布萊斯。我想我會選擇那個。我們確實預計 - 我不能判斷這是否是一個綠地問題,但我們確實預計整個 ICAPS 的晶圓啟動量肯定會增加,絕對領先邏輯,而 DRAM 的數量會減少。我們可能並不真正認為 NAND 晶圓啟動量會增加,但這仍然會有所升級。所以大多數記憶體技術都是升級。但這將是全面新技術、新工廠和設備的結合。

  • Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

    Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Mehdi, for your question. And now, Brice, would you like to give us your closing thoughts?

    好的。謝謝 Mehdi 的提問。現在,布萊斯,您願意跟我們講一下您的最後感言嗎?

  • Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

    Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services

  • Thanks, Mike. I think we've done a good job anticipating the road map inflections in data center AI. We can see the pull for our solutions in gate-all-around chips, from transistors to frontside wiring and backside wiring and in advanced packaging. Same goes for DRAM, where we're #1 in materials engineering and especially strong in HBM stacking.

    謝謝,麥克。我認為我們在預測資料中心 AI 路線圖變化方面做得很好。我們可以看到我們的解決方案在環柵晶片、從電晶體到正面佈線、背面佈線以及先進封裝方面的吸引力。對於 DRAM 也是如此,我們在材料工程領域排名第一,並且在 HBM 堆疊方面尤其強大。

  • In future calls, we'll have a lot more to say about our positions in edge, AI and IoT plus automotive and clean energy, which are very big and long-term drivers of our ICAPS business. The momentum in our systems business fuels our service business, which is driving very stable subscription-like growth and helping us increase the dividend at an accelerated rate.

    在未來的電話會議上,我們將更多地談論我們在邊緣、人工智慧和物聯網以及汽車和清潔能源領域的地位,這些都是我們 ICAPS 業務的巨大和長期驅動力。我們的系統業務的發展勢頭推動了我們的服務業務,推動了非常穩定的訂閱式成長,並幫助我們以更快的速度增加股息。

  • Gary will be at the Bernstein Conference in New York on May 30, and I hope to see many of you at the BofA conference in San Francisco on June 6.

    加里將於 5 月 30 日出席在紐約舉行的伯恩斯坦會議,我希望能在 6 月 6 日於舊金山舉行的美國銀行會議上見到大家。

  • Thank you, Mike. Let's close the call.

    謝謝你,麥克。我們結束通話吧。

  • Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

    Michael Sullivan - VP of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Brice. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of today's call is going to be available on the IR page of our website by 5 p.m. Pacific Time today. And we'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

    好的。謝謝,布萊斯。我們感謝大家今天的參與。今天的電話會議重播將於下午 5 點前在我們網站的 IR 頁面上提供。今天太平洋時間。我們感謝您對應用材料的持續關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

    女士們、先生們,感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實結束了。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。