特斯拉 (TSLA) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Second Quarter 2023 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, VP of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives.

大家下午好，歡迎收看特斯拉 2023 年第二季度問答網絡直播。我是投資者關係副總裁馬丁·維查 (Martin Viecha)，今天加入我的還有埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk)、扎卡里·柯克霍恩 (Zachary Kirkhorn) 和其他一些高管。

Our Q2 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time, and the update deck, we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們的第二季度業績於下午 3 點左右公佈。中部時間和更新平台，我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能會存在重大差異。 （操作員說明）

But before we jump into the Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

但在我們開始問答之前，埃隆做了一些開場白。埃隆？

Thank you, Martin. So just a Q2 recap. In Q2, we achieved record vehicle production and deliveries and record revenue of about $25 billion in a single quarter. And Model Y became the best-selling vehicle of any kind globally in Q1, surpassing the likes of Corolla and Golf. So it was the #1 vehicle of any kind, including vehicles that are sold at a far lower price. This was, I think, an incredible achievement by the Tesla team, and just a huge thank you to our customers for their support.

謝謝你，馬丁。所以只是回顧一下第二季度。第二季度，我們實現了創紀錄的汽車產量和交付量，並且單季度收入創紀錄地達到了約 250 億美元。 Model Y 成為第一季度全球最暢銷的車型，超過了卡羅拉和高爾夫等車型。因此，它是所有類型的第一車輛，包括以低得多的價格出售的車輛。我認為，這是特斯拉團隊取得的令人難以置信的成就，也是對我們客戶的支持的巨大感謝。

And this came in spite of high interest rates and a lot of macro uncertainty. And nonetheless, we managed to achieve operating margin of about 10%. We continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, although we expect that Q3 production will be a little bit down because we've got summer shutdowns for a lot of factory upgrades, so just probably a slight decrease in production in Q3 for sort of global factory upgrades.

儘管利率高且宏觀不確定性很大，但這一結果還是出現了。儘管如此，我們仍實現了約 10% 的營業利潤率。我們今年的目標仍然是 180 萬輛汽車的交付量，儘管我們預計第三季度的產量將略有下降，因為我們在夏季停工以進行大量工廠升級，因此第三季度的產量可能會略有下降全球工廠升級。

And the long-term economy we think is going to just drive volume through the ceiling, next level. And our sort of future robotaxi products, the dedicated robotaxi products, we think have a quasi-infinite demand. The way we're going to manufacture the robotaxi is also itself a revolution. And so it's a revolutionary sign made in a revolutionary way. It will be, by far, the highest units per hour of any vehicle production ever. And I'm so very excited about that.

我們認為，長期經濟將推動銷量突破上限，進入下一個水平。我們認為未來的機器人出租車產品，專用的機器人出租車產品有近乎無限的需求。我們製造機器人出租車的方式本身也是一場革命。因此，這是一個以革命性方式製作的革命性標誌。迄今為止，這將是有史以來車輛產量最高的每小時產量。我對此感到非常興奮。

With respect to Autopilot and Dojo, in order to build autonomy, we also need to train our neural net with data from millions of vehicles. The more -- I mean, this has been proven over and over again, the more training data you have, the better the results. And I mean, there are times where we see basically, in a neural net basically, it's sort of, at a million training examples, it barely works at 2 million, it slightly works at 3 million. It's like, "Wow, okay, we're seeing something." But then you get to like 10 million training examples, it's like -- it becomes incredible. So there's just no substitute for a massive amount of data. And obviously, Tesla has more vehicles on the road that are collecting this data than all other companies combined by, I think, maybe even an order of magnitude. So I think we might have 90% of all -- a very big number.

對於 Autopilot 和 Dojo，為了構建自主性，我們還需要使用數百萬輛車輛的數據來訓練我們的神經網絡。我的意思是，這已經被一遍又一遍地證明，你擁有的訓練數據越多，結果就越好。我的意思是，有時我們基本上看到，在神經網絡中，基本上，在一百萬個訓練樣本中，它在 200 萬個訓練樣本中幾乎不起作用，在 300 萬個訓練樣本中稍微起作用。就像，“哇，好吧，我們看到了一些東西。”但當你開始喜歡 1000 萬個訓練樣本時，這就變得不可思議了。因此，海量數據是無可替代的。顯然，特斯拉在路上收集這些數據的車輛數量比所有其他公司的總和還要多，我認為，甚至可能是一個數量級。所以我認為我們可能擁有 90%——一個非常大的數字。

So the success in AI and dev is a function of talent, sort of unique data and computing resources. And we have outstanding capabilities in all 3 arenas. And I really just don't know how anyone could do what we're doing, even if they had our software and had our computer, if they did not have the training data.

因此，人工智能和開發的成功取決於人才、獨特的數據和計算資源。我們在這三個領域都擁有出色的能力。我真的不知道如果沒有訓練數據，任何人怎麼能做我們正在做的事情，即使他們擁有我們的軟件和計算機。

So speaking of which, our Dojo training computer is designed to significantly reduce the cost of neural net training. It is designed to -- it's somewhat optimized for the kind of training that we need, which is a video training. So we just see that the need for neural net training, again, talking of being a quasi-infinite of things, is just enormous. So I think having -- we expect to use both NVIDIA and Dojo, to be clear. But there's -- we just see a demand for really advanced training resources. And we think we may reach in-house neural net training capability of 100 [exoblocks] by the end of next year.

說到這裡，我們的 Dojo 訓練計算機旨在顯著降低神經網絡訓練的成本。它的設計目的是——它針對我們需要的培訓類型（視頻培訓）進行了一定程度的優化。因此，我們再次看到，神經網絡訓練的需求是巨大的。因此，我認為需要明確的是，我們希望同時使用 NVIDIA 和 Dojo。但我們只是看到了對真正高級培訓資源的需求。我們認為，到明年年底，我們可能會達到 100 個 [exoblocks] 的內部神經網絡訓練能力。

So today, over 300 million miles have been driven using FSD Beta. That 300 million-mile number is going to seem small very quickly. It will soon be billions of miles, tens of billions of miles. And the FSD will go from being as good as a human to then being vastly better than a human. We see a clear path to full self-driving being 10x safer than the average human driver. And between Autopilot and Dojo computer, our inference hardware in the car, which we call sort of hardware 3, 4. But it's really dedicated. It's a high-efficiency inference computer that's in the car. And our Optimus robot, Tesla's really at the cutting edge of AI development.

如今，使用 FSD Beta 的行駛里程已超過 3 億英里。 3 億英里這個數字很快就會顯得很小。很快就會是數十億英里、數百億英里。 FSD 將從與人類一樣優秀到遠遠優於人類。我們看到了完全自動駕駛的清晰路徑，其安全性比普通人類駕駛員高 10 倍。在 Autopilot 和 Dojo 計算機之間，我們在汽車中使用推理硬件，我們將其稱為硬件 3、4。但它確實非常專用。它是車內的高效推理計算機。我們的擎天柱機器人特斯拉確實處於人工智能開發的最前沿。

With regard to our Cybertruck, we continue to build release candidates of the Cybertruck on our final production line in Austin. I'm actually here in Austin at the Gigafactory. This is the first truck that we're aware of that will have 4 doors over a 6-foot bed and will fit into a 20-foot garage. So it's the biggest on the outside, but it's even bigger on the inside. So I think that's -- one of the elements of good design is it should feel bigger on the inside than it looks on the outside. And this is no small car, but we really cared about the exterior dimensions of the Cybertruck down to the last millimeter. So just trying to get right in the middle of the Goldilocks zone, not too big, not too small, and then really maximize the utility of the volume. And we can't wait to start delivering it later this year.

關於我們的 Cyber​​truck，我們繼續在奧斯汀的最終生產線上構建 Cyber​​truck 的候選版本。我實際上在奧斯汀的超級工廠。這是我們所知的第一輛卡車，它有 4 個門和 6 英尺的貨廂，可放入 20 英尺的車庫。所以它的外面最大，但裡面更大。所以我認為，優秀設計的要素之一是它的內部感覺應該比外部看起來更大。這不是一輛小型汽車，但我們真的很關心 Cyber​​truck 的外部尺寸，精確到最後一毫米。因此，只要努力達到適居區的中間，不要太大，也不要太小，然後真正最大化體積的效用。我們迫不及待地想在今年晚些時候開始交付。

Some other highlights. Our global Supercharging network now stands at over roughly 50,000 connectors and over 5,000 locations. As I think a lot of people are aware, the Tesla charging standard, which we made open source, and it's now called the North American Charging Standard, we're deeply honored that Ford, GM, Mercedes and many other OEMs have signed up to use our connector and gain access to our charging network. We strongly believe in helping other car companies to accelerate the EV revolution and just trying to do the right thing, in general. So that's our goal there.

其他一些亮點。我們的全球超級充電網絡現已覆蓋約 50,000 個連接器和 5,000 多個地點。我想很多人都知道，特斯拉充電標準是我們開源的，現在被稱為北美充電標準，我們非常榮幸福特、通用汽車、梅賽德斯和許多其他原始設備製造商都簽署了該標準使用我們的連接器並訪問我們的充電網絡。我們堅信幫助其他汽車公司加速電動汽車革命，並努力做正確的事情。這就是我們的目標。

Then I think what I want to emphasize, like very strongly, this is a very important point, is that Tesla, just as with the North American Charging Standard, although we're not licensing -- in that case not licensing, we're just making it available. But we are very open to licensing our full self-driving software and hardware to other car companies. And we are already in discussions with -- only just early discussions with a major OEM about using Tesla FSD. So we're not trying to keep this to ourselves. We're more than happy to license it to others. And lastly, our new lithium refinery and cathode facility are progressing well.

然後我想我想強調的是，非常強烈，這是非常重要的一點，就是特斯拉，就像北美充電標準一樣，儘管我們沒有獲得許可——在這種情況下沒有獲得許可，我們是只是讓它可用。但我們非常願意將我們的全自動駕駛軟件和硬件授權給其他汽車公司。我們已經在與一家主要 OEM 進行關於使用 Tesla FSD 的早期討論。所以我們並不想把這件事保密。我們非常樂意將其授權給其他人。最後，我們新的鋰精煉廠和陰極設施進展順利。

Now in conclusion, we continue to focus on making as many cars as we can while maintaining healthy financials. Our artificial intelligence development is obviously entering a new era, and we're incredibly excited about what's to come. Our other businesses such as Megapack, supercharging service and whatnot, all started to become a meaningful contributor to overall profitability this quarter.

現在總而言之，我們將繼續專注於生產盡可能多的汽車，同時保持健康的財務狀況。我們的人工智能發展顯然正在進入一個新時代，我們對即將發生的事情感到非常興奮。我們的其他業務，例如 Megapack、增壓服務等，都開始成為本季度整體盈利能力的重要貢獻者。

And then lastly, I'd just like to profusely thank all of our employees who are making a lot of extra effort during uncertain times. Thank you very much for your hard work and the impact you're making.

最後，我要衷心感謝我們所有的員工，他們在不確定的時期做出了很多額外的努力。非常感謝您的辛勤工作和您所產生的影響。

Thank you very much, Elon. And I think Zach has some opening remarks as well.

非常感謝你，埃隆。我認為扎克也有一些開場白。

Yes. Thanks, Martin. As Elon mentioned, Q2 was another record quarter of production and deliveries as well as records in profit for energy and services and other businesses. Congratulations again to the Tesla team on the continued progress.

是的。謝謝，馬丁。正如埃隆提到的，第二季度的產量和交付量以及能源、服務和其他業務的利潤都創下了新紀錄。再次祝賀特斯拉團隊不斷取得進步。

As we navigate through a period of economic uncertainty, rising interest rates, volatility and consumer confidence and regulatory change, I want to comment on our financial approach.

在我們度過經濟不確定、利率上升、波動、消費者信心和監管變化的時期時，我想對我們的財務方法發表評論。

First, the single most important priority is to ensure we are continuing to invest heavily in the core technologies that will drive the long-term value of the business. These include increasing spending on AI-related technologies such as full self-driving, Optimus and Dojo; as well as new products such as Cybertruck, our next-generation platform, and the Semi, as evidenced by the continued growth in our R&D spend. This also includes continuing our investments in capacity expansion not only in our vehicle factories but also our supercharging network service, internal applications and battery processes as we continue with meaningful capital expenditures to lay this foundation for the future.

首先，最重要的優先事項是確保我們繼續大力投資核心技術，以推動業務的長期價值。其中包括增加對人工智能相關技術的支出，例如全自動駕駛、Optimus 和 Dojo；以及我們的下一代平台 Cyber​​truck 和 Semi 等新產品，我們研發支出的持續增長就證明了這一點。這還包括繼續投資於汽車工廠的產能擴張，以及我們的增壓網絡服務、內部應用和電池流程，同時我們將繼續進行有意義的資本支出，為未來奠定基礎。

Second, we continue to work towards our goals of maximizing volumes on both our vehicle and energy business but, most importantly, doing so in a way that generates the capital to continue our pace of R&D and capital investments. This requires a strong focus on per unit COGS reductions in each of our key businesses as well as working capital improvements on raw materials, work-in-process inventory and customer AR, all of which progressed appropriately in Q2.

其次，我們繼續努力實現汽車和能源業務銷量最大化的目標，但最重要的是，這樣做的方式是產生資本以繼續我們的研發和資本投資步伐。這需要我們重點關注每項關鍵業務的單位銷貨成本降低，以及原材料、在製品庫存和客戶應收賬款方面的營運資本改善，所有這些都在第二季度取得了適當進展。

If we look specifically at our automotive business, our gross margin showed a modest reduction and remained healthy, despite action taken to further improve vehicle affordability early in the quarter. We recognized -- we realized per unit cost improvements in nearly every category, including material cost and commodities, manufacturing costs and logistics, while also continuing to rapidly increase the build rate in our Austin and Berlin factories. For our Energy business, we improved margins and gross profit driven by cost reductions in deal economics, particularly with Megapack. As a reminder, storage volumes are typically volatile sequentially based on the types of projects and their specific revenue recognition milestones.

如果我們具體關注我們的汽車業務，我們的毛利率略有下降，並保持健康，儘管在本季度初採取了進一步提高汽車負擔能力的行動。我們認識到——我們幾乎在每個類別都實現了單位成本的改善，包括材料成本和商品、製造成本和物流，同時還繼續快速提高奧斯汀和柏林工廠的建造率。對於我們的能源業務，由於交易經濟成本降低，特別是 Megapack，我們提高了利潤率和毛利潤。提醒一下，存儲量通常會根據項目類型及其特定的收入確認里程碑依次波動。

As we look forward to the rest of the year, I want to reiterate Elon's comments on Q3 volumes driven by planned downtimes for factory upgrades. These upgrades will also carry some amount of factory idle cost. However, we are working to minimize as much as possible. It's also important to keep in mind the uncertainty in the macro environment, which can impact our execution positively or negatively in the near term. Regardless, we continue to remain dynamic with a focus on fundamental efficiency and a long-term outlook.

當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，我想重申埃隆對工廠升級計劃停機所推動的第三季度銷量的評論。這些升級還將帶來一定量的工廠閒置成本。然而，我們正在努力盡可能地減少這種情況。同樣重要的是要記住宏觀環境的不確定性，這可能會在短期內對我們的執行產生積極或消極的影響。無論如何，我們將繼續保持活力，關注基本效率和長期前景。

Congratulations again to everybody on a great quarter.

再次祝賀大家度過了一個美好的季度。

Thank you very much, Zach. And let's go to investor questions. The first question on licensing FSD, we've already answered. So let's go to the second one. The second question is, what is the status of 4680 cells? How far are you from the specs you laid out on Battery Day? When do you expect to achieve what you laid out on Battery Day?

非常感謝你，扎克。讓我們來回答投資者的問題。關於FSD許可的第一個問題，我們已經回答了。那麼讓我們來看第二個。第二個問題是，4680電芯的現狀如何？您距離電池日上列出的規格還有多遠？您預計什麼時候能夠實現電池日所設定的目標？

Yes. First, I'll just start with a little bit of a production update. So in Texas, 4680 cell production increased 80% Q2 over Q1, and the team surpassed 10 million production cells produced here in Texas. So congrats to the team for that. Their focus on yield reduced our scrap bill by 40% quarter-over-quarter, and that resulted in a 25% reduction in cell COGS.

是的。首先，我將從一些生產更新開始。因此，在德克薩斯州，第二季度 4680 電池產量比第一季度增長了 80%，該團隊在德克薩斯州生產的電池數量超過了 1000 萬個。因此，祝賀團隊。他們對產量的關注使我們的報廢費用環比減少了 40%，從而使電池 COGS 減少了 25%。

Here in Texas, we're preparing to launch our Cybertruck cell, which is 10% higher energy density than current production. That was accomplished through process and mechanical design optimization. As we scale Cyber cell production through the end of the year and early next, we should be in a comfortable place on cost per cell. Against our battery energy density targets, the Cyber cell is at our expectations on a like-for-like electrochemistry basis. We're yet to integrate silicon or in-house cathode production, both reviewed on Battery Day, which do bring significant further energy density and cost improvements, but that is a topic for another day.

在德克薩斯州，我們正準備推出 Cyber​​truck 電池，其能量密度比目前生產的電池高 10%。這是通過工藝和機械設計​​優化來實現的。隨著我們在年底和明年初擴大網絡電池的生產規模，我們在每個電池的成本上應該處於一個舒適的位置。根據我們的電池能量密度目標，Cyber​​ 電池在電化學基礎上達到了我們的預期。我們尚未整合矽或內部陰極生產，這兩者都在電池日進行了審查，這確實帶來了顯著的進一步能量密度和成本改進，但這是另一天的主題。

Lastly, it is important to remember that most of what we focused on at Battery Day was the Tesla-engineered 4680 production system and the improvements we strove to achieve on equipment, factory density, capital cost and utility cost reduction, all of which we are realizing in our Texas scale-up to date.

最後，重要的是要記住，我們在電池日關注的大部分內容是特斯拉設計的 4680 生產系統以及我們努力在設備、工廠密度、資本成本和公用事業成本降低方面實現的改進，所有這些都是我們所關注的。迄今為止，我們在德克薩斯州的規模擴大中實現了這一點。

Thank you very much. The next question is, can you talk more to the upcoming Tesla Energy products and how your thinking has evolved on the revenue model? Given Tesla's AI capabilities, how do you see the long-term mix between hardware margin and recurring software margin from Autobidder as this segment accelerates?

非常感謝。下一個問題是，您能否更多地談談即將推出的特斯拉能源產品以及您對收入模式的思考是如何演變的？鑑於特斯拉的人工智能能力，隨著該細分市場的加速發展，您如何看待 Autobidder 的硬件利潤和經常性軟件利潤之間的長期組合？

We can't comment on future product road map, but I can provide a quick energy Q2 update. Megapack continues to show strong demand globally, with Lathrop ramping successfully to meet our contracted projects in 2023. As stated last quarter, Megapack margins are in a reasonable place, in line with our target market -- vehicle target margins.

我們無法評論未來的產品路線圖，但我可以提供第二季度的快速能源更新。 Megapack 在全球範圍內繼續表現出強勁的需求，Lathrop 成功地在 2023 年滿足了我們的合同項目。正如上季度所述，Megapack 的利潤率處於合理水平，符合我們的目標市場——車輛目標利潤率。

The second final assembly line at Lathrop is progressing on schedule, eventually doubling Lathrop capacity ahead of our full factory ramp in 2024. We have several exciting large projects in construction or nearing completion, including the KES project in Hawaii, the Riverina project in Australia, several projects in California and one here at Gigafactory, Texas that we'll tour today, actually. We want to thank our customers, utilities and grid operators for trusting us with these projects.

拉斯羅普的第二條總裝線正在按計劃進行，最終將在 2024 年工廠全面投產之前使拉斯羅普的產能翻倍。我們有幾個令人興奮的大型項目正在建設或即將完工，包括夏威夷的 KES 項目、澳大利亞的 Riverina 項目、實際上，我們今天將參觀加利福尼亞州的幾個項目以及德克薩斯州超級工廠的一個項目。我們要感謝我們的客戶、公用事業公司和電網運營商對我們這些項目的信任。

On the Autobidder question, we continue to grow Autobidder contracts in wholesale markets like Australia, Texas, U.K. and California with over 6 gigawatt hours under Tesla's dispatch next year. In the U.K., our projects performed best in the industry in Q2. Autobidder does have software margins and is an enabler for hardware sales, but it's a relatively small contributor to revenues given how much deployment growth on the Megapack hardware side is occurring. It's important to remember that this large project -- these large capital projects that have lifetimes of 20 years of recurring revenues on an annualized basis relative to upfront CapEx are small.

關於 Autobidder 問題，我們將繼續在澳大利亞、德克薩斯州、英國和加利福尼亞州等批發市場增加 Autobidder 合同，特斯拉明年的調度量將超過 6 吉瓦時。在英國，我們的項目第二季度在行業中表現最好。 Autobidder 確實有軟件利潤，並且是硬件銷售的推動者，但考慮到 Megapack 硬件方面的部署增長，它對收入的貢獻相對較小。重要的是要記住，這個大型項目——這些大型資本項目的年化收入相對於前期資本支出來說有 20 年的經常性收入，規模很小。

On the residential side, we have some fun things happening. We recently surpassed 0.5 million Powerwalls installed. Just this week, we are launching Charge on Solar, which allows Tesla Powerwall and vehicle customers to charge their vehicles using their excess solar and drive only on the sunshine that hits their roof. Yesterday, we began paying customers in Texas for participating in our virtual power plant to provide grid support to ERCOT. We expect these credits to lower our median customer's annual bill by 1/3 and to increase these credits over time as ERCOT expands market access.

在住宅方面，我們發生了一些有趣的事情。最近，我們安裝的 Powerwall 數量已超過 50 萬個。就在本週，我們推出了太陽能充電，它允許 Tesla Powerwall 和車輛客戶使用多餘的太陽能為車輛充電，並且僅依靠屋頂的陽光行駛。昨天，我們開始向德克薩斯州的客戶付費，讓他們參與我們的虛擬發電廠，為 ERCOT 提供電網支持。我們預計這些積分將使我們客戶的年度賬單中位數降低 1/3，並且隨著 ERCOT 擴大市場准入，這些積分會隨著時間的推移而增加。

And today, we are expanding Tesla electric enrollment to new Model 3 owners in Texas, followed by all Texas vehicle customers over the rest of the quarter. Unfortunately, and somewhat similar to Tesla Insurance, bringing Tesla electric and VPP capabilities to our customers requires working through a fractured regulatory environment on a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction basis. In the long run, the value of residential energy software and hardware will be driven by the level of market access that utilities, market operators and regulators permit. For Powerwalls eligible to provide the full stack of energy services, like peaker capacity and system buffering, such as in Australia, we can more than double the value of ownership relative to a typical system today.

今天，我們將特斯拉電動汽車的註冊範圍擴大到德克薩斯州的新 Model 3 車主，隨後在本季度剩餘時間內擴大到所有德克薩斯州汽車客戶。不幸的是，與 Tesla Insurance 有點類似，向我們的客戶提供 Tesla 電動和 VPP 功能需要在各個司法管轄區的基礎上克服分散的監管環境。從長遠來看，住宅能源軟件和硬件的價值將由公用事業公司、市場運營商和監管機構允許的市場准入水平驅動。對於有資格提供全套能源服務（例如峰值容量和系統緩衝）的 Powerwall（例如在澳大利亞），我們可以將所有權價值相對於當今的典型系統增加一倍以上。

Thank you very much. The next question is, could you quantify the benefits to COGS per unit from the IRA battery manufacturing incentives; and secondly, battery raw material declines year-to-date?

非常感謝。下一個問題是，您能否量化 IRA 電池製造激勵措施對每單位 COGS 的好處？其次，電池原材料今年迄今有所下降？

All right. I can take that. On the first part of the question for IRA manufacturing incentives, we provided previous guidance that we expect these to be, for the course of this year, in the range of $150 million to $250 million per quarter. We are staying within that foundry as we guided previously, so that was the case in Q2 as well. I will note, and I think we've mentioned this before, that this includes a 50-50 sharing of credits for qualified cells from our long-term battery partner, Panasonic.

好的。我可以接受。關於 IRA 製造激勵問題的第一部分，我們提供了之前的指導，我們預計今年的激勵措施將在每季度 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元之間。我們按照之前的指導留在該代工廠內，所以第二季度的情況也是如此。我要指出的是，我想我們之前已經提到過這一點，這包括對來自我們的長期電池合作夥伴松下的合格電池進行 50-50 的積分共享。

On the commodity side, we are continuing to see improvements there, as we've discussed previously. Lithium is the most notable improvement so far. I think I commented on this on the last call because typically, we see this coming about a quarter before. It actually is realized in our financials. And also just as a reminder, we're not fully exposed to the price of lithium. Our supply chain team has done a terrific job in partnership with another -- a bunch of other companies to put in place some long-term agreements here, but we do have some exposure that moves up and down. We're also seeing benefits in aluminum and steel, which I think is great. Not as large as the lithium impacts, but they contribute nonetheless. So if we add up the total impact of this in Q2 relative to prior quarter, it's about the same size and magnitude as the IRA benefits that we also received.

在商品方面，正如我們之前討論的那樣，我們繼續看到那裡的改進。迄今為止，鋰是最顯著的改進。我想我在上次電話會議上對此發表了評論，因為通常我們會在大約一個季度之前看到這一點。它實際上已經在我們的財務中實現了。另外提醒一下，我們並沒有完全了解鋰的價格。我們的供應鏈團隊在與另一家公司的合作中做得非常出色——與其他一些公司在這里達成了一些長期協議，但我們確實有一些上下波動的風險。我們還看到了鋁和鋼的好處，我認為這很棒。雖然不如鋰的影響那麼大，但它們仍然做出了貢獻。因此，如果我們將第二季度相對於上一季度的總影響加起來，其規模和幅度與我們也收到的 IRA 福利大致相同。

Just to put this in context, as you look at COGS per unit sequentially from Q1 to Q2, I think there's 2 things to keep in mind there. The first is that our S/X mix for deliveries increased quite a bit from Q1 to Q2. So as you think about fundamental cost reductions, it's important to adjust for that. And then secondly, as we continue to work on reducing our Austin and Berlin cost, which we did quite a bit of that from Q1 to Q2, these factories are still slightly above Model Y production costs elsewhere. And in the quarter, our mix of Austin- and Berlin-related builds increased. And so that's something to consider as you model out the impact from Q1 to Q2 in terms of COGS per unit.

只是為了將這一點放在上下文中，當您從第一季度到第二季度按順序查看每單位的銷貨成本時，我認為有兩件事需要記住。首先，我們的 S/X 組合交付量從第一季度到第二季度大幅增加。因此，當您考慮從根本上降低成本時，重要的是要對此進行調整。其次，隨著我們繼續努力降低奧斯汀和柏林的成本（從第一季度到第二季度我們做了很多工作），這些工廠的 Model Y 生產成本仍然略高於其他地方的生產成本。在本季度，我們與奧斯汀和柏林相關的建築組合有所增加。因此，當您根據每單位銷售成本對第一季度到第二季度的影響進行建模時，需要考慮這一點。

I do want to ask Karn if there's anything else on the commodity side or just more generally, you want to add here?

我確實想問卡恩，在商品方面還有什麼其他內容，或者更一般地說，您想在這裡添加什麼嗎？

Yes. As you mentioned, Zach, we've naturally been a little bit hedged from the lithium position because of the long-term contracts we have in place. But we have seen reduction in pricing across the board for all commodities that specifically go into batteries such as nickel, cobalt and graphite. And the reductions in pricing translate into thousands of dollars when you look at it from a per-vehicle impact. We're taking advantage of the historically low commodity pricing in certain areas to kind of expand some of those fixed price contracts through the end of the decade. So it's a playbook that we'll continue to kind of go back to as we look to the future.

是的。正如你提到的，扎克，由於我們簽訂了長期合同，我們自然會對鋰頭寸進行一些對沖。但我們看到鎳、鈷和石墨等專門用於電池的所有商品的價格全面下降。從每輛車的影響來看，價格的降低意味著數千美元。我們正在利用某些地區大宗商品價格處於歷史低位的機會，在本世紀末擴大其中一些固定價格合同。因此，當我們展望未來時，我們將繼續回顧這本劇本。

Thank you. The next question on FSD, have you considered allowing FSD transferability as a lever to allow existing customers to upgrade to a new Tesla instead of being locked into an existing car due to the price of FSD?

謝謝。關於 FSD 的下一個問題，您是否考慮過允許 FSD 可轉讓性作為槓桿，讓現有客戶升級到新的特斯拉，而不是因為 FSD 的價格而被鎖定在現有汽車上？

Yes, this is a question we get asked a lot. So we're excited to announce that for Q3, we will be allowing transfer of FSD. This is a onetime amnesty. So it needs to be -- you need to take advantage of it in Q3, but -- or at least place the order in Q3 within reasonable delivery time frames. So yes, I hope this makes people happy. And we're not going to repeat. This is a onetime thing.

是的，這是我們經常被問到的問題。因此，我們很高興地宣布，在第三季度，我們將允許轉讓 FSD。這是一次特赦。因此，您需要在第三季度利用它，但是，或者至少在第三季度在合理的交貨時間內下訂單。所以是的，我希望這能讓人們開心。我們不會重複。這是一次性的事情。

All right. The next question, when will we give more information about the Cybertruck orders, estimated delivery schedules, pricing and specifications?

好的。下一個問題，我們什麼時候會提供有關 Cyber​​truck 訂單、預計交付時間表、定價和規格的更多信息？

Demand is so far off the hook you can't even see the hook. So that's really not an issue. I do want to emphasize that the Cybertruck has a lot of new technology in it, like a lot. It doesn't look like any other vehicle because it is not like any other vehicle. And the production ramp will move as fast as the slowest and least lucky elements of the entire supply chain and internal production. So I wouldn't expect -- I hope it's smooth. We're certainly better at production ramps than -- we've got a lot of experience with the production ramps.

需求已經遠遠超出了你甚至看不到的範圍。所以這真的不是問題。我確實想強調的是，Cyber​​truck 擁有很多新技術。它看起來不像任何其他車輛，因為它不像任何其他車輛。產量增長的速度將與整個供應鍊和內部生產中最慢和最不幸的部分一樣快。所以我沒想到——我希望一切順利。我們在提高產量方面當然比——我們在提高產量方面擁有豐富的經驗。

But first order approximation is there's like 10,000 unique parts and processes in the Cybertruck. And if any one of -- it will go as fast as the least lucky, least well-executed, elements of the 10,000. So it's always difficult to predict the ramp initially, but I think we'll be making them in high volume next year, and we will be delivering the car this year.

但一階近似是 Cyber​​truck 中有大約 10,000 個獨特的零件和流程。如果有任何一個——它的進展速度將與這 10,000 個人中最不幸運、執行最差的人一樣快。因此，最初預測坡道總是很困難，但我認為明年我們將大量生產它們，並且我們將在今年交付汽車。

Thank you. The next question is critics of Gigacasting contended that process makes vehicles harder and more costly to repair, essentially pushing costs on to the customer. Can you share some details about the initial repair experience with Gigacast vehicles?

謝謝。下一個問題是 Gigacasting 的批評者認為，該工藝使車輛更難維修，維修成本更高，實質上將成本轉嫁給了客戶。您能否分享一些有關 Gigacast 車輛的初步維修經驗的詳細信息？

That must be why everyone's copying us.

這一定就是為什麼每個人都在模仿我們。

Thanks, Elon. This is Lars. Martin, that's like simply not true. There's a misconception that traditional bodies are easy to repair, but they are made up of multiple materials and multiple joining methods. Spot welds and rivets have to be drilled out. Panels and structural adhesives have to be chiseled down. Dried adhesive has to be removed; stains and cut, blah, blah, blah.

謝謝，埃隆。這是拉爾斯.馬丁，這根本不是真的。人們有一種誤解，認為傳統車身很容易修復，但它們是由多種材料和多種連接方法組成的。點焊縫和鉚釘必須鑽孔。面板和結構粘合劑必須被鑿掉。乾燥的粘合劑必須除去；污漬和切割，等等，等等。

It's a crazy patchwork quilt.

這是一張瘋狂的拼布被子。

Yes. And so putting that back together means time and money. Using an example of replacing a rear cast rail in the Model Y, to do that versus like what we replaced it with in Model 3, it's 10x cheaper and 3x faster to do it with the cast rail. My design team works with our collision repair team since we're closed loop on this with Insurance, and we designed specific parts that will make it easier and faster to repair. And we have an incentive to do that because we have our own insurance and our own body shops. We expect that we'll continue to do this, and collision repair will continue to become cheaper and faster over time. And we already make this available to all body shops, to our Tesla-approved body shop training.

是的。因此，將其重新組合起來意味著時間和金錢。以更換 Model Y 中的後鑄軌為例，與我們在 Model 3 中更換後鑄軌相比，使用鑄軌的成本要低 10 倍，速度要快 3 倍。我的設計團隊與我們的碰撞修復團隊合作，因為我們與保險部門在這方面形成了閉環，並且我們設計了特定的零件，使修復變得更容易、更快。我們有動力這樣做，因為我們有自己的保險和自己的車身修理廠。我們預計我們將繼續這樣做，隨著時間的推移，碰撞修復將繼續變得更便宜、更快。我們已經向所有車身修理廠以及特斯拉批准的車身修理廠培訓提供了這一服務。

Yes, closing loop on collision repair and factoring that into design is a big deal.

是的，碰撞修復的閉環並將其納入設計是一件大事。

It's crucial. I don't think anyone else can do it with that ecosystem that we have.

這很關鍵。我認為沒有其他人可以利用我們擁有的生態系統做到這一點。

Yes. And we are actually able to change the details of the casting with inserts, and we actually do that all the time, because the inserts actually wear out and need to be replaced anyway. So we can actually make design changes to the inserts and tweak the castings. Basically, the cast rear body or front body is lighter, cheaper, better noise vibration or harshness, much easier to manufacture.

是的。事實上，我們可以用鑲件改變鑄件的細節，而且我們實際上一直在這樣做，因為鑲件實際上會磨損，無論如何都需要更換。因此，我們實際上可以對嵌件進行設計更改並調整鑄件。基本上，鑄造後車身或前車身更輕、更便宜、噪音振動或聲振粗糙度更好，更容易製造。

It's better in every way.

各方面都更好。

And that's why so many other car companies are copying us.

這就是為什麼許多其他汽車公司都在模仿我們。

Probably.

大概。

Well, they certainly put out a lot of press releases about it. I think it's basically going to be how all cars are made in the future.

嗯，他們確實發布了很多有關此事的新聞稿。我認為這基本上將是未來所有汽車的製造方式。

Thank you. Next question, how many Optimus bots have been made? And when will they be able to start performing useful tasks?

謝謝。下一個問題，已經製造了多少個 Optimus 機器人？他們什麼時候能夠開始執行有用的任務？

10 million. Yes, I think we're around 5 or 6 bots. I think there's a -- we were at 10, I guess. It depends on how many are working and what phase. But it's sort of -- yes, there's more every month. There are a lot of interesting things about the Optimus bot. We found that there are actually no suppliers that can produce the actuators. There are no off-the-shelf actuators that work well for a humanoid robot at any price.

千萬。是的，我認為我們大約有 5 或 6 個機器人。我想我們當時是 10 歲。這取決於有多少人正在工作以及處於哪個階段。但有點——是的，每個月都會有更多。關於 Optimus 機器人，有很多有趣的事情。我們發現實際上沒有供應商可以生產執行器。無論價格如何，都沒有適合人形機器人的現成執行器。

It's certainly not compelling a humanoid robot...

這當然不能吸引人形機器人......

Yes, not a humanoid robot that can do something -- the things that a human could do. So we've actually had to design our own actuators to integrate the motor, the power electronics, the controller, the sensors. And really, every one of them is custom designed. And then, of course, we'll be using the same inference hardware as the car. But we, in designing these actuators, are designing them for volume production, so that they're not just lighter, tighter and more capable than any other actuators whereof that exists in the world. But it's also actually manufacturable. So we should be able to make them in volume. The first Optimus that is will have all of the Tesla designed actuators, sort of production candidate actuators, integrated and walking should be around November-ish. And then we'll start ramping up after that.

是的，不是一個可以做人類可以做的事情的人形機器人。因此，我們實際上必須設計自己的執行器來集成電機、電力電子設備、控制器和傳感器。事實上，每一件都是定制設計的。當然，我們將使用與汽車相同的推理硬件。但我們在設計這些執行器時，是為了批量生產而設計的，因此它們不僅比世界上現有的任何其他執行器更輕、更緊、功能更強大。但它實際上也是可以製造的。所以我們應該能夠批量生產它們。第一個 Optimus 將擁有所有特斯拉設計的執行器，某種生產候選執行器，集成和行走應該在 11 月左右。然後我們將開始加速。

In terms of when we'll be able to do some useful things, like we'll first be trying this out in our own factories and just proving out its utility, but I think we'll be able to have it do something useful in our factories sometime next year. I would be -- yes, I'm pretty confident of that. So yes, it's going well.

就我們何時能夠做一些有用的事情而言，比如我們將首先在我們自己的工廠中嘗試這一點，並證明它的實用性，但我認為我們將能夠讓它做一些有用的事情我們的工廠明年某個時候。我會——是的，我對此非常有信心。所以是的，一切進展順利。

I should say another cool thing about Optimus is that there's -- just in the U.S. alone, there are 2 million amputees. And I was just talking to the Neuralink team, and by combining a Neuralink implant and a robotic arm or leg for someone that has had their arm or leg, or arms and legs, amputated, we believe we can give basically a cyborg body that is incredibly capable. $6 million man in real life. But it won't cost $6 million -- a $60,000 man. So it sounds impressive, but it will actually -- so that actually could be a really -- I think it would be incredible to potentially help malaise people around the world. And to give them a robot arm like that is as good, maybe long term better, than a biological one.

我應該說關於 Optimus 的另一個很酷的事情是，僅在美國就有 200 萬截肢者。我剛剛與 Neuralink 團隊交談，通過將 Neuralink 植入物和機器人手臂或腿結合起來，為那些手臂或腿或手臂和腿被截肢的人提供一個機器人身體，非常有能力。現實生活中身價600萬美元的男人。但它不會花費 600 萬美元——一個 6 萬美元的人。所以這聽起來令人印象深刻，但實際上 - 所以這實際上可能是一個真正的 - 我認為它可能會幫助世界各地的人們感到難以置信。給他們一個這樣的機械臂與生物手臂一樣好，也許從長遠來看更好。

Thank you. The next question is, how has the order intake trended relatively to production levels during Q2? And how has it trended in the quarter-to-date period? Conceptually, how does Tesla decide when is it appropriate to reduce prices or add other sales incentives to increase demand?

謝謝。下一個問題是，第二季度的訂單量相對於生產水平的趨勢如何？本季度迄今的趨勢如何？從概念上講，特斯拉如何決定何時適當降低價格或增加其他銷售激勵措施以增加需求？

Yes. I guess demand has roughly tracked production, which is what we aim for, is we look at -- something that we have that really, I think, no other carmaker has is that we have real-time demand and real-time production. Like, so 7 days a week, I get an e-mail -- order-generated e-mail which shows output from all factories and orders globally. So it's like a real-time finger on the pulse of earth basically. And we adjust course according to what the mood of the public is. Buying a new car is a big decision for a vast majority of people. So any time there's economic uncertainty, people generally pause on new car buying at least to see what happens.

是的。我想需求大致跟踪了生產，這就是我們的目標，我們所關注的是——我們真正擁有的東西，我認為其他汽車製造商都沒有，那就是我們擁有實時需求和實時生產。就像，每週 7 天，我都會收到一封電子郵件——訂單生成的電子郵件，其中顯示了全球所有工廠的產量和訂單。所以它基本上就像一個實時的手指掌握著地球的脈搏。我們會根據公眾的情緒調整路線。對於絕大多數人來說，購買新車是一個重大決定。因此，只要出現經濟不確定性，人們通常都會暫停購買新車，至少看看會發生什麼。

And then obviously, another challenge is the interest rate environment. As interest rates rise, the affordability of anything bought with debt decreases, so effectively increasing the price of the car. So when interest rates rise dramatically, we actually have to reduce the price of the car because the interest payments increased the price of the car. And this is -- at least up until recently, it was, I believe, the sharpest interest rate rise in history. So we had to do something about that. And it's not that I got a crystal ball for the global economy. I really appreciate if I could borrow that crystal ball.

顯然，另一個挑戰是利率環境。隨著利率上升，用債務購買任何東西的承受能力都會下降，從而有效地提高了汽車的價格。因此，當利率大幅上升時，我們實際上必須降低汽車的價格，因為支付的利息增加了汽車的價格。我認為，至少直到最近，這是歷史上最大幅度的利率上升。所以我們必須對此做點什麼。這並不是說我得到了全球經濟的水晶球。如果我能藉用那個水晶球，我真的很感激。

DM us.

私信我們。

Yes, exactly, DM me. It should be not on Twitter. So I mean, one day, it seems like the world economy is falling apart. And the next day, everything is fine. I don't know what the hell was going on, to be totally frank. I wish I did. So I mean that's why I say like -- I was on Twitter. I posted, like just really advising -- because I care a lot about the sort of small shareholders, especially ones that have stuck with us through thick and thin. I love you, guys. And so we can't control these macro shocks or the thematic depressive nature of the stock market. So that's why I recommend against margin loans in times that are turbulent.

是的，完全正確，DM 我。它不應該出現在推特上。所以我的意思是，有一天，世界經濟似乎正在崩潰。第二天，一切都很好。坦白說，我不知道到底發生了什麼。但願我做了，可惜我沒有。所以我的意思是，這就是為什麼我說——我在推特上。我發帖，就像真正提供建議一樣——因為我非常關心小股東，尤其是那些與我們同甘共苦的小股東。我愛你們。因此，我們無法控制這些宏觀衝擊或股市的主題性壓抑性質。這就是為什麼我建議在動盪時期不要使用保證金貸款。

If times are not that turbulent, actually a margin loan can be a smart move, within reason. But we're in, I would call it, turbulent times. Like, I have very high confidence in the long-term value of Tesla. Like, I see it -- I really see a path to a 10x or maybe -- call it a 5x increase in the value of the company, maybe a 10x. But where things go along the way, the trials and tribulations and the mood of the markets, one cannot predict. And so the old adage of buy and hold is right.

如果時代沒有那麼動盪，實際上保證金貸款可能是一個合理的明智之舉。但我們正處於，我稱之為，動蕩的時代。就像，我對特斯拉的長期價值非常有信心。就像，我看到了——我真的看到了一條通往 10 倍或者也許——稱之為公司價值增長 5 倍，也許是 10 倍的道路。但事情的發展方向、考驗和磨難以及市場情緒是無法預測的。因此，“買入並持有”這句古老的格言是正確的。

For an investment advice, I'd say like identify a company whose products you love. See if they -- does it seem like they'll continue to make good products or great products? Buy that stock and hold it. That's it. You all win. The reason companies exist is to make goods and services, ideally great goods and services. They don't exist for any other reason. They shouldn't. So that's why you should buy stock of a company that makes great products and has a great future pipeline. It's common sense, actually.

對於投資建議，我想說的是，找出一家您喜歡其產品的公司。看看他們是否會繼續生產好產品或出色的產品？購買該股票並持有。就是這樣。你們都贏了。公司存在的原因是生產商品和服務，最好是優質的商品和服務。它們不因任何其他原因而存在。他們不應該。因此，這就是為什麼您應該購買一家生產優質產品並擁有良好未來管道的公司的股票。其實這是常識。

And then generally, if you see, if you -- provided you're confident about what that company's products or services are, when the market panics, buy. And when the market is overly exuberant, you can sell. I'm not recommending you sell, but buy low, sell high.

一般來說，如果你看到，如果你——只要你對該公司的產品或服務有信心，當市場恐慌時，就購買。當市場過度繁榮時，您可以出售。我不建議你賣出，而是低買高賣。

Warren Buffett, actually, I think has a saying -- I'm paraphrasing him, but a publicly traded company is like -- imagine you're living in your house and some crazy, manic-depressive guy comes and stands outside your house and yells property prices at you, and it's a different price every day, but the house is still the same house. So this is a tough market. Credit that to Warren Buffett.

事實上，我認為沃倫·巴菲特有一句話——我是在解釋他，但是一家上市公司就像——想像一下你住在你的房子裡，有一個瘋狂、躁狂抑鬱的人來到你的房子外面，然後跟你喊房價，每天的價格都不一樣，但房子還是那個房子。所以這是一個艱難的市場。這要歸功於沃倫·巴菲特。

Thank you. Let's go to the next question. With the emphasis of price cuts to drive volume growth eating into automotive gross margin, can investors expect to see automotive gross margin stabilize or even rise due to efficiencies outpacing the cuts? And if so, when?

謝謝。讓我們進入下一個問題。由於降價的重點是推動銷量增長，從而侵蝕汽車毛利率，投資者能否預期汽車毛利率會因效率超過降價而穩定甚至上升？如果是的話，什麼時候？

Oh, man. Where's that crystal ball again? If I may, look, the short-term variances in gross margin and profitability really are minor relative to the long-term picture. Autonomy, we'll make all of these numbers look silly. I'd recommend looking at ARK Invest. I think their analysis is very good. It's the best I -- and generally, Fintwit or like other finance -- there's a Smart Finance we follow on Twitter, follow their accounts. They're great. So that's, in my opinion, where you'll get the best info.

天啊。那個水晶球又在哪裡？請允許我看一下，相對於長期情況而言，毛利率和盈利能力的短期差異確實很小。自治，我們會讓所有這些數字看起來很愚蠢。我建議看看 ARK Invest。我覺得他們的分析非常好。這是最好的，一般來說，Fintwit 或像其他金融一樣，我們在 Twitter 上關注 Smart Finance，關注他們的賬戶。他們很棒。所以，在我看來，這是您可以獲得最好信息的地方。

So I strongly believe Tesla is a big long-term investment. And thus, when things go up and down, in fact, the market panics, buy. If the market is a little too exuberant, sell at the time. But just generally, like, I feel -- I'm confident we'll deliver over the long term but can't control the short term. And the autonomy is really where it's at. I mean, Zach, what do you think?

因此，我堅信特斯拉是一項重大的長期投資。因此，當事情上漲和下跌時，事實上，市場會恐慌，買入。如果市場有點太旺盛，就及時賣出。但總的來說，我覺得——我相信我們會在長期內實現目標，但無法控制短期。自主權確實就在那裡。我的意思是，扎克，你覺得怎麼樣？

I fully agree with you. I mean I think the only thing in the short term that matters is what I said in my opening remarks, which is are we generating enough money to continue to invest. And the portfolio of products and technologies that the technical teams are investing in right now, this is intense. It's intense in terms of investment. It's intense in terms of potential.

我完全同意你的觀點。我的意思是，我認為短期內唯一重要的是我在開場白中所說的，即我們是否能產生足夠的資金來繼續投資。技術團隊目前正在投資的產品和技術組合非常緊張。就投資而言，這是很激烈的。就潛力而言，它非常強大。

Frankly, I think it's ridiculous that we have positive free cash flow in a capital-intensive business while investing massive amounts of money in new technology. That is super hard.

坦率地說，我認為我們在資本密集型業務中擁有正的自由現金流，同時在新技術上投入大量資金，這是荒謬的。那太難了。

And vertical integration. It's not even just like new products but also...

以及垂直整合。它甚至不僅僅是像新產品，而且......

Yes. We actually make our (expletive), yes, compared to others but -- sorry for cursing, boarding school.

是的。是的，與其他學校相比，我們確實做到了（髒話），但是——抱歉咒罵寄宿學校。

And so at least from my perspective, what matters is continuing to generate the cash to invest. That means continuing to be hyper focused on near-term cost reduction, is everything we do in near-term cost reduction provides capital to reinvest? Hyper focused on working capital management, which we've made quite a bit of progress there on the raw materials and with -- as aside of that, we've been very focused on accounts receivables as well to ensure that we can continue to reinvest the cash. This is what we're focused on.

因此，至少從我的角度來看，重要的是繼續產生現金進行投資。這意味著繼續高度關注短期成本降低，我們在短期成本降低方面所做的一切是否都能提供資本進行再投資？高度關注營運資金管理，我們在原材料方面取得了相當大的進展，除此之外，我們也非常關注應收賬款，以確保我們可以繼續進行再投資現金。這就是我們關注的重點。

And so there's a set of this that we control. We have a pipeline of cost reductions. We are getting tailwinds in the commodity space right now, as Karn mentioned, that's helpful. Variability around average selling prices goes back to Elon's point. We don't control interest rates. We don't control macro consumer sentiment. But we have an obligation to be responsive to that, to ensure that we're matching supply and demand and keeping things balanced. And so this is how we're managing the next handful of quarters. Soon enough, these quarters will be behind us. They won't be a part of the present value of future cash flows of the business. And so we want to make sure we keep that view and make sure that the long term of the business is exactly the way that we want it to be.

所以我們可以控制一組這樣的東西。我們有一系列降低成本的渠道。正如卡恩提到的，我們現在在大宗商品領域順風順水，這很有幫助。平均售價的變化可以追溯到埃隆的觀點。我們不控制利率。我們無法控制宏觀消費者情緒。但我們有義務對此做出回應，以確保我們匹配供需並保持平衡。這就是我們管理接下來幾個季度的方式。很快，這些宿舍就會被我們拋在身後。它們不會成為企業未來現金流現值的一部分。因此，我們希望確保保持這一觀點，並確保業務的長期發展正是我們想要的那樣。

All right. Thank you very much. And now let's go to analyst questions. The first question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays.

好的。非常感謝。現在讓我們來回答分析師的問題。第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

Great. I wanted to start first with a question about your efforts in AI and Dojo. It's pretty clear, it sounds like you're accelerating your focus. Can you maybe provide us with a sense of what the process is of refining a product? Is it more machines? And maybe you could give us a sense of when the payout starts to -- when you start to see the payout and what the resource outlay is, what should we expect on the OpEx front as a result of this?

偉大的。我想首先問一個關於您在 AI 和 Dojo 方面所做努力的問題。很明顯，聽起來你正在加速集中註意力。您能否向我們介紹一下產品的精煉過程？是不是機器多了？也許你可以讓我們了解什麼時候開始支付——當你開始看到支付以及資源支出是多少時，我們應該對運營支出有何預期？

Sorry, are you saying how much are we going to spend on Dojo?

抱歉，您是說我們要在 Dojo 上花多少錢嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Or R&D of Dojo.

或者道場的研發。

Yes.

是的。

Well, we're not going to be open loop on our Dojo expenditures. But I mean, I think we will be spending something north of $1 billion over the next year on -- through the end of next year, it's well over $1 billion in Dojo. And yes, so I mean we've got a truly staggering amount of video data to do training on. And this is another thing. Like, in order to copy us, you also need to spend billions of dollars on training compute. I mean it's like -- and it's also hard to. You need the data, and you need the training computers. It's like -- think, all things needed to actually achieve this at scale toward generalized solution for autonomy, this is one of the hottest problems ever. You see a lot of AI companies doing LLMs and whatnot. And I'd say, if they're so great, why can't they make a self-driving car? Because it's harder. That's why.

好吧，我們不會在 Dojo 支出上開環。但我的意思是，我認為明年我們將在 Dojo 上花費超過 10 億美元——到明年年底，Dojo 的支出將遠遠超過 10 億美元。是的，所以我的意思是我們有大量的視頻數據可供訓練。這是另一回事。就像，為了複製我們，你還需要花費數十億美元來訓練計算。我的意思是，這就像——而且也很難。您需要數據，還需要訓練計算機。這就像——想一想，真正大規模實現這一目標所需的一切，以實現自動化的通用解決方案，這是有史以​​來最熱門的問題之一。你會看到很多人工智能公司都在攻讀法學碩士學位等等。我想說，如果他們這麼偉大，為什麼他們不能製造自動駕駛汽車呢？因為它更難。這就是為什麼。

But I do think -- that said, I think there's some great AI companies out there. But just fundamentally, the staggering amount of data we've got to process, it's got to be processed somehow. And custom silicon is the best way to do that. So that's what Dojo is designed to do, is optimize for video training. It's not optimized for LLMs. It's optimized for video training. With video training, you have a much higher ratio of compute-to-memory bandwidth, whereas LLMs tends to be memory bandwidth choked. So that's it.

但我確實認為——也就是說，我認為那裡有一些偉大的人工智能公司。但從根本上來說，我們必須處理的數據量驚人，必須以某種方式進行處理。定制芯片是實現這一目標的最佳方法。這就是 Dojo 的設計目的，即針對視頻訓練進行優化。它沒有針對 LLM 進行優化。它針對視頻培訓進行了優化。通過視頻訓練，您的計算與內存帶寬的比率要高得多，而法學碩士往往會受到內存帶寬的限制。就是這樣了。

But like I said, we're also -- we have some -- we're using a lot of NVIDIA hardware. We'll continue to use -- we'll actually take NVIDIA hardware as fast as NVIDIA will deliver it to us. Tremendous respect for Jensen and NVIDIA. They've done an incredible job. And frankly, I don't know, if they could deliver us enough GPUs, we might not need Dojo. But they can't. They've got so many customers. They've been kind enough to, nonetheless, prioritize some of our GPU orders. But yes, the sheer magnitude of video training -- because like I said, we're not trying to just get as good as human. We want to get to 10x better than human, maybe 100x better than human. Right now, I believe there's something on the order of 1 million automotive deaths per year. And then if you say permanent serious injuries, I think it's probably closer to 10 million per year. And so it matters if you're twice as good as human. Like, 10x better than human would still mean 100,000 deaths and 1 million severe permanent injuries. So it's like, okay, we would rather be 100x better.

但正如我所說，我們也——我們有一些——我們使用了大量 NVIDIA 硬件。我們將繼續使用 NVIDIA 硬件，我們將按照 NVIDIA 交付給我們的速度來使用它。對 Jensen 和 NVIDIA 表示極大的敬意。他們做了令人難以置信的工作。坦率地說，我不知道，如果他們能為我們提供足夠的 GPU，我們可能就不需要 Dojo。但他們不能。他們有很多顧客。儘管如此，他們還是很友善地優先考慮了我們的一些 GPU 訂單。但是，是的，視頻訓練的規模是巨大的——因為就像我說的，我們並不只是想變得和人類一樣好。我們希望比人類好 10 倍，甚至比人類好 100 倍。目前，我相信每年約有 100 萬人因汽車死亡。如果你說永久性的嚴重傷害，我認為每年可能接近 1000 萬。因此，如果你的能力是人類的兩倍就很重要。比如，比人類好 10 倍仍然意味著 10 萬人死亡和 100 萬人嚴重永久性傷害。所以這就像是，好吧，我們寧願做得更好 100 倍。

So there's really -- it's a march of knights. And we want to achieve as perfect a safety as possible. And there's truly mind-boggling amounts of video and computer needed for that. And then I do think there's other applications for Dojo, but we just desperately need it for video training.

所以確實有——這是騎士的行軍。我們希望實現盡可能完美的安全性。為此需要大量的視頻和計算機。我確實認為 Dojo 還有其他應用程序，但我們只是迫切需要它來進行視頻培訓。

Just to add to what Elon mentioned, so the numbers that he mentioned are between R&D spend and capital spend. And this is moving quickly. And so we provide a 3-year outlook on our capital expense. We are considering these expenses in that outlook. And as that moves up and down, we'll continue to update our guidance in the Q.

只是補充埃隆提到的內容，所以他提到的數字介於研發支出和資本支出之間。而且這一切進展很快。因此，我們對資本支出提供了 3 年展望。我們正在以這種前景考慮這些費用。隨著這種情況的上下波動，我們將繼續更新 Q 中的指導。

Yes. I want to say the fundamental rate limiter on the progress of full self-driving is training. If we had more training compute, we would get done faster. So that's it.

是的。我想說，限制全自動駕駛進展的根本因素是訓練。如果我們有更多的訓練計算，我們就能更快地完成任務。就是這樣了。

And it's just difficult to predict how quickly we can execute on it.

而且很難預測我們能以多快的速度執行它。

Yes.

是的。

Great. Thank you. Just as a follow-up, I recognize there's sort of incredible macro uncertainty right now, but you're sticking with your near-term volume target of 50% CAGR. As we just think about sort of in the year ahead, Cybertruck, there's going to be some contribution. There's going to be some help from further EV penetration growth. But to what extent are you willing to sacrifice on pricing to keep that 50% volume CAGR intact? Or are you thinking differently about margins versus your prior commentary of willing to sacrifice on margins to get more share?

偉大的。謝謝。作為後續行動，我認識到目前存在令人難以置信的宏觀不確定性，但您仍堅持 50% 複合年增長率的近期銷量目標。正如我們所考慮的那樣，在未來的一年中，Cyber​​truck 將會做出一些貢獻。電動汽車普及率的進一步增長將會帶來一些幫助。但您願意在多大程度上犧牲價格來保持 50% 的銷量複合年增長率不變？或者，與您之前願意犧牲利潤以獲得更多份額的評論相比，您對利潤的看法是否有所不同？

It's not about getting more share. It's just that you can think of every car that we sell or produce that has full autonomy capability as actually something that, in the future, may be worth as much as 5x what it is today. Because average [pass-through] vehicle is doing like maybe 10 hours of driving a week. If this is sort of -- if this says 1.5 hours a day on average, that's 10 hours a week-ish. If you've got on autonomous -- if that vehicle is able to operate autonomously and use -- so either dedicated autonomous or partially autonomous, like Airbnb, like maybe sometimes you allow your car to be used by others, sometimes you want to use it exclusively just like doing Airbnb with a room in your house, the value is just tremendous.

這不是為了獲得更多份額。只是你可以認為我們銷售或生產的每輛具有完全自主能力的汽車在未來的價值可能是現在的 5 倍。因為平均[直通]車輛每週的駕駛時間可能為 10 小時。如果這是平均每天 1.5 小時，那就是每週 10 小時左右。如果你擁有自動駕駛——如果該車輛能夠自動操作和使用——那麼無論是專用自動駕駛還是部分自動駕駛，比如Airbnb，就像有時你允許你的汽車被其他人使用，有時你想使用這就像在你的房子裡做 Airbnb 一樣，價值是巨大的。

So I think sort of it would be -- I think it does make sense to sacrifice margins in favor of making more vehicles because we think, in the not too distant future, they will have a dramatic valuation increase. I think the Tesla fleet value increase at the point in which we can upload full self-driving and is approved by regulators will be the single biggest step change in asset value maybe in history.

所以我認為，我認為犧牲利潤來生產更多車輛確實是有意義的，因為我們認為，在不久的將來，它們的估值將會大幅上漲。我認為，當我們可以上傳全自動駕駛並得到監管機構批准時，特斯拉車隊價值的增長將是歷史上資產價值最大的一步變化。

Thank you. Let's go to the next analyst. The question comes from Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

謝謝。讓我們來看下一位分析師。這個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐爾·羅斯納。

Two questions from me as well. First, following up on the autonomy. So before you start launching these dedicated robotaxi vehicles, on existing vehicles, you're improving FSD incrementally. What is your latest targeted timing to essentially release a non-beta version or an eyes-off version that would trigger much higher take rates? And would Tesla benefit from lowering the price of FSD?

我也有兩個問題。一是落實自主權。因此，在開始推出這些專用機器人出租車車輛之前，您需要在現有車輛上逐步改進 FSD。您發布非測試版本或會引發更高采用率的非測試版本的最新目標時間是什麼？特斯拉會因為 FSD 價格的降低而受益嗎？

Well, obviously, as people have sort of made fun of me, and perhaps quite fairly have made fun of me, my predictions about achieving full self-driving have been optimistic in the past. The reason I've been optimistic, what it tends to look like is we'll make rapid progress with a new version of FSD, but then it will curve over logarithmically. So at first, logarithmic curve looks like this sort of fairly straight upward line, diagonal and up. And so if you extrapolate that, then you have a great thing. But then because it's actually logarithmic, it curves over, and then there have been a series of stacked logarithmic curves.

嗯，顯然，由於人們有點取笑我，也許相當公平地取笑我，所以我過去對實現完全自動駕駛的預測一直很樂觀。我一直樂觀的原因是，我們將在新版本的 FSD 上取得快速進展，但隨後它會呈對數曲線變化。所以一開始，對數曲線看起來像這種相當筆直的向上線，對角線向上。因此，如果你推斷出這一點，那麼你就得到了一件偉大的事情。但隨後因為它實際上是對數的，所以它彎曲了，然後出現了一系列堆疊的對數曲線。

Now I know I'm the boy who cried FSD, but man, I think we'll be better than human by the end of this year. That's not to say we're approved by regulators. And I'm saying then that, that would be in the U.S. because we've got to focus on one market first. But I think we'll be better than human by the end of this year. I've been wrong in the past, I may be wrong this time. And the price of FSD -- so the way to think of the price of FSD is actually very low, it's not high. When you go back to what a singular -- the value of the car increased dramatically if it is actually autonomous. $15,000 is actually a low price, not a high price. And we will offer -- I think we do sort of offer FSD as a sort of monthly subscription. Although, like most people don't know that. So I'd recommend like maybe trying it out as a monthly subscription so you don't have to go with the $15,000 thing. But I think yes, obviously, if the car is worth several times its original price, $15,000 is actually a low price for FSD.

現在我知道我就是那個哭著FSD的男孩，但是伙計，我想到今年年底我們會比人類更好。這並不是說我們得到了監管機構的批准。我當時想說的是，那是在美國，因為我們必須首先專注於一個市場。但我認為到今年年底我們將比人類更好。過去我錯了，這次我可能也錯了。 FSD 的價格——所以 FSD 的價格實際上非常低，並不高。當你回到奇點時——如果汽車實際上是自動駕駛的話，它的價值就會急劇增加。 15,000美元實際上是一個低價，而不是高價。我們將提供——我認為我們確實提供 FSD 作為一種每月訂閱。雖然，像大多數人一樣不知道這一點。所以我建議您嘗試按月訂閱，這樣您就不必花 15,000 美元。但我認為是的，顯然，如果這輛車的價值是原價的幾倍，那麼 15,000 美元對於 FSD 來說實際上是一個低價。

And the next question comes from William Stein from Truist.

下一個問題來自 Truist 的 William Stein。

Great. I'd like to ask about -- so to stick on this AI topic, we've read with great interest the developments in Dojo today, and you've spoken about FSD. But you've also -- Elon, you started this x.ai company. And for investors that think that there might be quite a bit of value in the AI features and products of Tesla, it might be concerning to see you pursuing another endeavor where AI is the focus. So can you talk about how x.ai might overlap, might perhaps compete, with Tesla or, in other ways, perhaps it enhances the value of what Tesla does?

偉大的。我想問一下——為了繼續討論這個人工智能主題，我們饒有興趣地閱讀了今天 Dojo 的進展，並且您談到了 FSD。但你也——Elon，你創辦了這家 x.ai 公司。對於認為特斯拉的人工智能功能和產品可能具有相當大價值的投資者來說，看到您追求另一項以人工智能為重點的事業可能會令人擔憂。那麼您能否談談 x.ai 如何與特斯拉重疊、競爭，或者以其他方式增強特斯拉業務的價值？

Yes, I think it will actually enhance the value of Tesla. There were just some of the world's best AI engineers and scientists that were willing to join a startup, but they were not willing to join a large, sort of relatively established company like Tesla. So I was like -- that's actually how it got started. I was interviewing a few people. And they're like, 'No, we want to do a startup." I was like -- and that's all -- I couldn't convince them to join Tesla. So I was like, "Okay, well, better to start up that, that I run this, than they go work somewhere else." That's kind of the genesis of xAI. And xAI is focused on sort of AGI. Yes. So it's -- like I said, I think there will be some value that xAI brings to Tesla.

是的，我認為這實際上會提升特斯拉的價值。世界上只有一些最優秀的人工智能工程師和科學家願意加入初創公司，但他們不願意加入像特斯拉這樣相對成熟的大型公司。所以我想——這實際上就是它的開始。我正在採訪一些人。他們說，‘不，我們想做一家初創公司。’我當時想——僅此而已——我無法說服他們加入特斯拉。所以我說，“好吧，好吧，最好開始”這就是 xAI 的起源。xAI 專注於某種 AGI。是的。所以，就像我說的，我認為會有一些價值xAI 為特斯拉帶來的成果。

Also, some of the very best people in the world, they really just want to work on interesting problems. So if you take, say, our materials science group, really what convinced Charlie Kuehmann to leave Apple, where he was very happy and well compensated, and both at -- to where we think is the best materials science group in the world, was that he got to work at both Tesla and SpaceX. He wasn't willing to leave Apple if it was just Tesla, but he was willing to do it if it was Tesla and SpaceX. So sometimes you get the best talent in the world, that's the kind of thing you need to do. And that actually has been very beneficial to Tesla.

而且，世界上一些最優秀的人，他們真的只是想解決有趣的問題。所以，如果你拿我們的材料科學小組來說，真正說服查理·庫曼離開蘋果公司的原因是，他在蘋果公司非常高興，報酬也很高，而且都在我們認為是世界上最好的材料科學小組的地方。他在特斯拉和 SpaceX 都工作過。如果只是特斯拉，他不願意離開蘋果，但如果是特斯拉和SpaceX，他願意離開。所以有時候你會得到世界上最優秀的人才，這就是你需要做的事情。這實際上對特斯拉非常有利。

And if I could squeeze one more mundane question in, I wonder if you think you can hit the 1.8 million unit number with current pricing or do you anticipate needing to continue to lower prices? Because it seems like they've stabilized, the trends have stabilized, in the last maybe 1.5 months. Should we expect the sort of continued decreases or more stabilization for the rest of the year?

如果我能再問一個平常的問題，我想知道您是否認為以當前定價可以達到 180 萬台，還是預計需要繼續降低價格？因為在過去的 1.5 個月裡，它們似乎已經穩定下來，趨勢也已經穩定下來。我們是否應該預期今年剩餘時間會出現持續下降或更加穩定的情況？

Sure. We have sort of restarted the referral program, which I think will be quite effective. As Zach was saying earlier, we don't control the macroeconomic conditions. So if interest rates continue to rise, that reduces the affordability of cars. And for a lot of people, they're really kind of just barely breaking even every month. In fact, if you look at the rise in credit card debt, they are, in fact, not breaking even every month. Like, credit card debt is freaking scary. So yes, we just don't control the market conditions. If market conditions stabilize, I think prices will be stable. If they're not stable, then we would have to lower prices then. Yes.

當然。我們已經重新啟動了推薦計劃，我認為這將非常有效。正如扎克之前所說，我們無法控制宏觀經濟狀況。因此，如果利率繼續上升，汽車的承受能力就會降低。對於很多人來說，他們每個月真的只是勉強收支平衡。事實上，如果你看看信用卡債務的增長，就會發現它們並不是每個月都達到收支平衡。比如，信用卡債務太可怕了。所以是的，我們只是無法控制市場狀況。如果市場狀況穩定，我認為價格也會穩定。如果它們不穩定，那麼我們就不得不降低價格。是的。

Thank you. Let's go to Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

謝謝。讓我們來聽聽奧本海默的科林·魯施 (Colin Rusch)。

As you're building out Dojo and implementing what truly is going to be a highly complex set of software, can you speak to the maturity of the operating system and how much outsourced software you're expecting to use in that system?

當您構建 Dojo 並實現真正高度複雜的軟件集時，您能談談操作系統的成熟度以及您期望在該系統中使用多少外包軟件嗎？

This is a custom software stack. But it is designed such that you can run, at a high level, PyTorch and JAX. But then we have to customize it to actually run on a custom silicon. So the software stack is a combination of open source software and then Tesla software, all the way to the bare silicon, which is the case for the inference computer in the car.

這是一個定制軟件堆棧。但它的設計使您可以在較高級別上運行 PyTorch 和 JAX。但隨後我們必須對其進行定制，使其能夠在定制芯片上實際運行。因此，軟件堆棧是開源軟件和特斯拉軟件的組合，一直到裸矽，汽車中的推理計算機就是這種情況。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then can you speak to how you're managing some of the geopolitical risks relative to your capacity expansion? Obviously, as you guys continue to grow at this rate, you're going to be putting some folks out of business. And there's going to be some impacts around regional economy. So I just want to understand how you're thinking about that in terms of some of your CapEx plans and how you're managing some of those relationships with different countries and regions.

好的。這非常有幫助。然後您能談談您如何管理與產能擴張相關的一些地緣政治風險嗎？顯然，隨著你們繼續以這種速度增長，你們將使一些人破產。區域經濟也會受到一些影響。因此，我只想了解您在一些資本支出計劃方面是如何考慮的，以及您如何管理與不同國家和地區的一些關係。

Well, this is a period of unusual geopolitical risk. So I think we're -- the best we can do is have factories in many parts of the world such that, if things get difficult in one part of the world, we can still keep things going in the rest of the world.

嗯，這是一個異常地緣政治風險的時期。所以我認為我們能做的最好的事情就是在世界許多地方擁有工廠，這樣，如果世界某一地區的情況變得困難，我們仍然可以讓世界其他地方的事情繼續進行。

Thank you. The next question comes from Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.

謝謝。下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

Tesla has been making progress reducing costs and did so again last quarter. Can you give an update on when you think automotive COGS per vehicle could be under the historical $36,000 per vehicle level? And what are the key puts and takes to get there?

特斯拉在降低成本方面一直取得進展，上季度再次取得了進展。您能否提供最新信息，說明您認為每輛車的汽車銷售成本何時會低於每輛車 36,000 美元的歷史水平？實現這一目標的關鍵點是什麼？

This is -- I think I was asked this in the past. This is very difficult to forecast. There's a series of costs that we manage, the series of cost in which we don't control. And so particularly on the commodity side, where labor cost go, et cetera, it's just hard to say.

這是——我想我過去曾被問過這個問題。這很難預測。有一系列我們管理的成本，也有一系列我們無法控制的成本。因此，特別是在大宗商品方面，勞動力成本的去向等，很難說。

Yes. And we saw very inflationary -- like strong inflationary pressures for a while last year, and now -- which obviously makes it very difficult to reduce COGS. And now we're seeing what seems to be deflationary pressures, certainly deflationary -- deflation isn't pressure. But we're seeing commodity prices dropping as was mentioned -- as Karn mentioned a moment ago. And look, I mean what do you think? I mean, basically, the trends seem to be deflationary at the commodity level.

是的。我們看到通脹非常嚴重——比如去年一段時間和現在的強勁通脹壓力——這顯然使得降低銷貨成本變得非常困難。現在我們看到的是通貨緊縮壓力，當然是通貨緊縮——通貨緊縮不是壓力。但正如卡恩剛才提到的那樣，我們看到大宗商品價格正在下跌。聽著，我的意思是你覺得怎麼樣？我的意思是，基本上，大宗商品層面的趨勢似乎是通縮的。

Definitely. There's that, and then there's also the unit economics improve as volumes grow. That's the other thing we're seeing. As we're becoming a bigger and better part of a lot of suppliers, the economies of scale come into play. There's equipment depreciation that comes into play. Equipment that was commissioned 5 to 7 years ago, that used to be a part of the piece price, that's completely amortized. So we'll see situations where the piece price comes down because that equipment contribution has gone away. And then just as we continue to have this mentality of continuous improvement in terms of labor, reducing labor, improving automation, and just continue to get better at what we do. So we have seen -- I think every quarter, we have seen an improvement. Of course, the commodities spike up and down. Just in general, the trend is towards being more efficient.

確實。不僅如此，隨著銷量的增長，單位經濟效益也隨之提高。這是我們看到的另一件事。隨著我們成為眾多供應商中規模更大、更好的一部分，規模經濟開始發揮作用。設備折舊正在發揮作用。 5至7年前投入使用的設備，曾經是單價的一部分，完全攤銷。因此，我們會看到由於設備貢獻消失而導致單價下降的情況。然後就像我們繼續抱著這種在勞動力方面不斷改進的心態一樣，減少勞動力，提高自動化程度，並繼續把我們所做的事情做得更好。所以我們看到——我認為每個季度我們都看到了進步。當然，大宗商品會上下波動。總的來說，趨勢是變得更加高效。

Yes, I totally agree.

是的，我完全同意。

Yes, lithium prices weren't absolutely insane there for a while.

是的，鋰價格暫時還沒有完全瘋狂。

Yes. And they're recovering now.

是的。他們現在正在康復。

Cobalt is like 1/3 of the way it used to be.

鈷的用量大約是以前的 1/3。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. And we're still early in the ramp -- well, not early in the ramp, but early in the cost-down curve of Austin and Berlin. And so it takes time to work the cost out. First, it's a focus on ramp. Ramp brings cost down effectively.

是的。我們仍處於起步階段——嗯，不是起步階段，而是奧斯汀和柏林成本下降曲線的早期階段。因此，計算成本需要時間。首先，重點是坡道。斜坡有效降低成本。

Ramp quality costs.

斜坡質量成本。

Yes. And then once that stabilizes, we can divert bandwidth to cost reduction. And so Austin and Berlin saw quite a decent amount of cost reduction on a fundamental basis from Q1 to Q2. If we continue to do that work, that will be helpful. And so we're just going to keep chipping away at it.

是的。一旦穩定下來，我們就可以將帶寬轉移到降低成本上。因此，從第一季度到第二季度，奧斯汀和柏林的成本在根本上有了相當大的降低。如果我們繼續做這項工作，那將會有所幫助。所以我們將繼續努力。

Yes, packaging is a big element to that.

是的，包裝是其中的一個重要因素。

Yes, right. Logistics, too.

是的，沒錯。物流也一樣。

Logistics is normalizing, which is great.

物流正在正常化，這很好。

Utilization is something that the team has been very focused on, so every bit of it.

利用率是團隊非常關注的事情，所以每一點都是如此。

And it's hard...

而且很難...

Yes. Logistics is underappreciated. Yes, so as the saying goes, like, [sales and order tactics wasn't worth] of logistics.

是的。物流被低估。是的，俗話說，[銷售和訂單策略不值得]物流。

Yes. And we've made tremendous improvements in cost on all fronts, expedite costs. We are down pre-pandemic expedited cost levels now, and our goal is to go further down.

是的。我們在各個方面都取得了巨大的成本改進，加快了成本。我們現在正在降低大流行前的快速成本水平，我們的目標是進一步降低。

Yes. So when we look at our progress from Q1 to Q2 on cost, the way that we look at it internally, normalized for the impacts of mix shift, with Austin and Berlin being a higher percentage of our mix; normalized for S and X being a higher percentage of our mix in Q2 versus Q1. The sequential cost reduction, it might be the largest we've had in a while. So I think it's great work on behalf of the Tesla team, and we just got to keep it up.

是的。因此，當我們審視從第一季度到第二季度的成本進展時，我們內部看待它的方式，針對混合轉變的影響進行了標準化，其中奧斯汀和柏林在我們的混合中所佔的比例較高；標準化後，S 和 X 在第二季度的組合中所佔的比例高於第一季度。成本的連續下降，可能是我們一段時間以來最大的下降。所以我認為這對特斯拉團隊來說是一項偉大的工作，我們必須堅持下去。

Yes, it's a game of pennies. It's like Game of Thrones but pennies.

是的，這是一場金錢遊戲。這就像《權力的遊戲》，但只是幾便士。

Mark, do you have a follow-up question? I think you're muted.

馬克，您還有後續問題嗎？我覺得你已經靜音了

Yes. Maybe you could put a finer point on the downtime impact that you spoke about in your prepared comments in terms of production impacts and then also to what extent there's a margin impact from those factory upgrades that you're planning this quarter.

是的。也許您可以更詳細地闡述您在準備好的評論中談到的停機影響對生產的影響，以及您本季度計劃的工廠升級對利潤率的影響有多大。

Yes, the downtime -- look, we don't know exactly the number of cars impacted because kind of the way that we go into downtime windows for upgrades is we set aside a period of time, but then the team is challenged to go as quickly as possible so that we can get the factories up and running again and minimize that. It's not a profound reduction. Hopefully, it's small.

是的，停機時間——看，我們並不確切知道受影響的汽車數量，因為我們進入停機窗口進行升級的方式是留出一段時間，但隨後團隊面臨的挑戰是：盡快，以便我們能夠讓工廠重新啟動並運行，並最大限度地減少這種情況。這並不是一個深刻的減少。希望它很小。

I think we're getting too much into the weeds here. I mean like you're asking for a level of precision that is not possible to answer. So let's move on.

我認為我們在這裡的雜草太多了。我的意思是，就像您所要求的精度水平是無法回答的。那麼讓我們繼續吧。

Yes. I think this is unfortunately all the time we have for today. So we'll speak to you all in the next 3 months. Thank you very much.

是的。不幸的是，我認為這就是我們今天所擁有的全部時間。因此，我們將在接下來的 3 個月內與大家交談。非常感謝。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。