特斯拉 (TSLA) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

ramp-up of new factories, and we believe there's still a meaningful room for improvement there.

新工廠的增加，我們相信那裡仍然有很大的改進空間。

Regarding Autopilot and AI, our vehicle has now driven over 0.5 billion miles with FSD Beta, full self-driving beta, and that number is growing rapidly. We recently completed a 10,000th GPU cluster of H100s. We think probably bringing it into operation faster than anyone's ever brought that much compute per unit time into production since training is the fundamental limiting factor on progress with full self-driving and vehicle autonomy.

關於自動駕駛儀和人工智慧，我們的車輛目前在 FSD Beta（全自動駕駛測試版）下已行駛了超過 5 億英里，而且這個數字還在快速增長。我們最近完成了第 10,000 個 H100 GPU 叢集。我們認為，將其投入運行的速度可能比任何人都快，將每單位時間的計算量投入生產，因為訓練是完全自動駕駛和車輛自主進展的基本限制因素。

We're also seeing significant promise with FSD version 12. This is the end-to-end AI where it's a photon count in, controls out or really you can think of it as there's just a large bit stream coming in and a tiny bit stream going out, compressing reality into a very small set of outputs, which is actually kind of how humans work. The vast majority of human data input is optics, from our eyes. And so we are, like the car, photons in, controls out with neural nets, just neural nets, in the middle. It's really interesting to think about that.

我們也看到 FSD 版本 12 的重大前景。這是端到端人工智慧，其中光子計數、控制，或者實際上你可以認為它只是有一個大的比特流進來，還有一個很小的比特流。流出去，將現實壓縮成非常小的一組輸出，這實際上是人類的工作方式。人類的絕大多數資料輸入都是光學的，來自我們的眼睛。所以我們就像汽車一樣，光子輸入，用神經網路控制輸出，只是神經網絡，在中間。想想這個真的很有趣。

We will continue to invest significantly in AI development as this is really the massive game changer, and I mean, success in this regard, in the long term, I think, has the potential to make Tesla the most valuable company in the world by far. If you have fully autonomous cars at scale and fully autonomous humanoid robots that are truly useful, it's not clear what the limit is.

我們將繼續大力投資人工智慧開發，因為這確實是巨大的遊戲規則改變者，我的意思是，從長遠來看，我認為這方面的成功有可能使特斯拉成為迄今為止世界上最有價值的公司。如果你擁有大規模的全自動汽車和真正有用的全自動人形機器人，那麼還不清楚極限是什麼。

Regarding energy storage, we deployed 4 gigawatt hours of energy, of storage products in Q3. And as this business grows, the energy division is becoming our highest-margin business. Energy and service now contribute over $0.5 billion to quarterly profit.

儲能方面，第三季我們部署了4吉瓦時的儲能產品。隨著該業務的成長，能源部門正在成為我們利潤率最高的業務。能源和服務業目前為季度利潤貢獻了超過 5 億美元。

The Cybertruck, I know a lot of people are excited about Cybertruck, I am too. I've driven the car. It's an amazing product. I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then in making a Cybertruck cash flow positive. This is simply normal for -- when you've got a product with a lot of new technology or any new -- brand-new vehicle program, but especially one that is as different and advanced as the Cybertruck, you will have problems proportionate to how many new things you're trying to solve at scale. So I just want to emphasize that one. I think this is potentially our best product ever, and I think it is our best product ever. It is going to be -- require immense work to reach volume production and be cash flow positive at a price that people can afford.

Cyber​​truck，我知道很多人都對 Cyber​​truck 感到興奮，我也是。我開過車。這是一個了不起的產品。我確實想強調，要實現 Cyber​​truck 的量產以及讓 Cyber​​truck 的現金流為正值，將會面臨巨大的挑戰。當您擁有一款採用大量新技術或任何新的全新車輛計劃的產品時，尤其是像 Cyber​​truck 這樣不同且先進的產品，這很正常，您將遇到與您正在嘗試大規模解決多少新問題。所以我只想強調這一點。我認為這可能是我們有史以來最好的產品，也是我們有史以來最好的產品。這將需要大量工作才能實現批量生產，並以人們可以負擔的價格實現正現金流。

Often, people do not understand what is truly hard. That's why I say prototypes are easy. Production is hard. People think it's the idea or you make a prototype, you design a car. And as soon as designing a car is -- it's not just anyone can do it. It does require taste. It does require effort to design a prototype. But the difficulty of going from a prototype to volume production is like 10,000% harder to get to volume production than to make the prototype in the first place. And then it is even harder than that to reach positive cash flow. That is why there have not been new car start-ups that have been successful for 100 years apart from Tesla.

人們常常不明白什麼是真正困難的事。這就是為什麼我說原型很簡單。生產是艱難的。人們認為這就是想法，或者你製作了一個原型，你設計了一輛車。一旦設計出一輛汽車——就不是任何人都能做到的。確實需要品味。設計原型確實需要努力。但從原型到量產的難度比最初製造原型困難 10,000%。然後實現正現金流就更難了。這就是為什麼除了特斯拉之外，100年來沒有一家新的汽車新創公司取得成功。

So I just want to temper expectations for Cybertruck. It's a great product. But financially, it will take, I don't know, a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cash flow contributor. I wish there was some way for that to be different, but that's my best guess.

所以我只是想降低對 Cyber​​truck 的期望。這是一個很棒的產品。但從財務角度來看，我不知道，它需要一年到 18 個月的時間才能成為顯著的正現金流貢獻者。我希望有某種方法可以讓它有所不同，但這是我最好的猜測。

So really, the demand is off the charts. We have over 1 million people who have reserved the car. So it's not a demand issue, but we have to make it, and we need to make it at a price that people can afford; insanely difficult things.

確實，需求量超出了預期。我們有超過 100 萬人預訂了汽車。所以這不是需求的問題，而是我們必須要做，而且要以老百姓能負擔的價格去做；極度困難的事。

In conclusion, we continue to focus on ramping production while maintaining positive cash flow, and we continue to target and expect to have around 1.8 million vehicle deliveries, as stated earlier this year. The Tesla AI team is, I think, one of the world's best, and I think it is actually by far the world's best, when it comes to real-world AI. But I'll say that again: Tesla has the best real-world AI team on earth, period, and it's getting better.

總而言之，我們繼續專注於提高產量，同時保持正現金流，並且我們繼續目標並預計實現約 180 萬輛汽車的交付量，如今年稍早所述。我認為特斯拉人工智慧團隊是世界上最好的團隊之一，而且在現實世界的人工智慧方面，我認為它實際上是迄今為止世界上最好的。但我要再說一次：特斯拉擁有地球上最好的現實世界人工智慧團隊，而且它正在變得越來越好。

And lastly, I wanted to thank all of our employees who are making a lot of extra effort during uncertain times. Thank you very much for your hard work and the impact that you're making.

最後，我要感謝我們所有的員工，他們在不確定的時期做出了許多額外的努力。非常感謝您的辛勤工作和您所產生的影響。

Thank you very much, Elon. And our CFO, Vaibhav, had some opening remarks as well.

非常感謝你，伊隆。我們的財務長 Vaibhav 也發表了一些開場白。

Thanks, Martin. Vehicle deliveries in Q3 outpaced production, and we had yet another record quarter of profitability in our energy business. Congratulations to the Tesla team for their continued focus on operational excellence as we navigate through a period of economic uncertainty, higher interest rates and shifting consumer sentiment.

謝謝，馬丁。第三季的汽車交付量超過了產量，我們的能源業務季度獲利能力又創歷史新高。恭喜特斯拉團隊在我們度過經濟不確定、利率上升和消費者情緒變化的時期時繼續關注卓越營運。

As Elon mentioned, our Q3 operational and financial performance was impacted by planned downturns for our factory upgrades. This was necessary to allow for further factory improvements and production rate increases. Despite those factory shutdowns, our cost per vehicle decreased to approximately $37,500. We saw sequential decreases in material costs and freight. Reducing the cost of our vehicles is our top priority.

正如埃隆所提到的，我們第三季度的營運和財務業績受到了工廠升級計劃中的低迷的影響。這對於進一步改進工廠和提高生產率是必要的。儘管工廠關閉，我們每輛車的成本仍下降至約 37,500 美元。我們看到材料成本和運費連續下降。降低車輛成本是我們的首要任務。

On the operating expenses front, R&D expenses continue to rise due to Cybertruck prototype builds and pilot production testing, combined with spend on AI technologies like full self-driving Optimus and Dojo. We have and will continue to make investments in these areas and hence, our capital expenditure and R&D will continue to grow in the near term.

在營運費用方面，由於 Cyber​​truck 原型機的建造和試生產測試，以及全自動駕駛 Optimus 和 Dojo 等人工智慧技術的支出，研發費用持續上升。我們已經並將繼續在這些領域進行投資，因此，我們的資本支出和研發將在短期內繼續成長。

However, our focus is to continue making investments through positive cash flow from operations. This year itself we have generated operating cash flows of approximately $8.9 billion and free cash flows of approximately $2.3 billion.

然而，我們的重點是透過營運產生的正現金流繼續進行投資。今年，我們產生了約 89 億美元的營運現金流和約 23 億美元的自由現金流。

Our other businesses are becoming more prominent on a stand-alone basis, with energy business leading the charge primarily from the growth in megabyte deployments. Our services and other businesses, on a year-on-year basis, also continued to show positive momentum as we benefit from our growing fleet.

我們的其他業務在獨立基礎上變得越來越突出，其中能源業務主要由於兆位元組部署的成長而處於領先地位。由於我們受益於不斷成長的機隊，我們的服務和其他業務同比也繼續呈現出積極的勢頭。

As regards our pricing strategy, in addition to what we have shared before, I want to elaborate that most car buying happens with one or other form of financing. And hence, we also view pricing in terms of monthly costs for the customer. And therefore, as interest costs in the U.S. have risen substantially, it has required us to adjust the price of our vehicles to keep the monthly cost in parity. We've tried to offset such adjustments via our focus on reducing costs. However, there is an inherent lag in cost reductions, which in turn impacts margins.

關於我們的定價策略，除了我們之前分享的內容之外，我想詳細說明一下，大多數汽車購買都是透過一種或其他形式的融資進行的。因此，我們也根據客戶的每月成本來看待定價。因此，隨著美國的利息成本大幅上升，我們需要調整車輛的價格，以保持每月的成本持平。我們試圖透過專注於降低成本來抵消此類調整。然而，成本降低存在固有的滯後性，這反過來又會影響利潤率。

To that extent, we recently announced a partner vehicle leasing program in the U.S., whereby you can get our Standard Range Model Y for as low as $399 a month.

為此，我們最近在美國宣布了一項合作夥伴車輛租賃計劃，您可以每月以低至 399 美元的價格購買我們的標準續航里程 Model Y。

In conclusion, as we navigate through a challenging economic environment, we're focused on reducing costs, maximizing delivery volumes and continue making investments in the future, in particular, AI and other next-generation platform. We believe this strategy positions us well for the long term. Once again, I would like to thank the Tesla team for their efforts in the last quarter.

總之，在我們應對充滿挑戰的經濟環境時，我們專注於降低成本、最大限度地提高交付量，並繼續對未來進行投資，特別是人工智慧和其他下一代平台。我們相信，從長遠來看，這項策略使我們處於有利地位。再次感謝特斯拉團隊上季的努力。

Thank you very much. And now let's go to investor questions. The first investor question comes from Craig. How many Cybertruck deliveries do you anticipate for 2024?

非常感謝。現在讓我們來回答投資者的問題。第一個投資者問題來自克雷格。您預計 2024 年將交付多少輛 Cyber​​truck？

I scruple to make an accurate guess at this point, going back to what I said earlier that the ramp is going to be extremely difficult. And like I said, there's no way around that. If you try to make -- if we just try to do some copycat vehicle design, of which there are literally 200 models that are slight variations on a theme in the combustion engine world, just distinctions without a difference, then it's really not that hard. But if you want to do something radical and innovative and something really special like the Cybertruck, it is extremely difficult because there's nothing to copy. You have to invent it, not just the car but the way to make the car.

我現在不敢做出準確的猜測，回到我之前所說的坡道將極其困難。就像我說的，沒有辦法解決這個問題。如果你嘗試做一些模仿的車輛設計，其中實際上有 200 種模型，它們在內燃機世界的主題上略有不同，只是沒有區別的區別，那麼這真的不那麼難。但如果你想做一些激進的、創新的、真正特別的東西，例如 Cyber​​truck，那是極其困難的，因為沒有什麼可以複製的。你必須發明它，不只是汽車，還有製造汽車的方法。

So the more uncharted the territory, the less predictable the outcome. Now I can say that -- if you say, "Well, where will things end up," I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, and -- but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year. I think we'll probably reach it sometime in 2025. That's my best guess.

因此，領域越是未知，結果就越難預測。現在我可以說——如果你說，“好吧，事情最終會怎樣”，我想我們最終每年會擁有大約 25 萬輛賽博卡車，而且——但我們不是——我不知道我認為明年我們將達到這個產出率。我認為我們可能會在 2025 年的某個時候實現這一目標。這是我的最佳猜測。

Thank you. The second question is can you provide a progress update on the 4680 cell, particularly progress towards performance improvements and cost savings outlined on Battery Day.

謝謝。第二個問題是，您能否提供 4680 電池的最新進展，特別是電池日概述的效能改進和成本節約的進展。

Sure thing, Martin. 4680 cell production in Texas increased 40% quarter-over-quarter. Congrats to the Texas team for producing their 20 millionth cell off of line 1. Texas is now our primary 4680 facility. We're heavily focused on quality. Scrap is down 40% quarter-over-quarter. With the increased volume and yield improvements, cell costs consistently improved month over month within the quarter, although we have a lot more work to do to achieve our steady-state goals. And that is our priority.

當然可以，馬丁。德州 4680 電池產量較上季成長 40%。恭喜德州團隊在 1 號生產線下生產了第 2000 萬個電池。德州現在是我們主要的 4680 工廠。我們非常注重品質。廢鋼量較上月下降 40%。隨著產量的增加和產量的提高，電池成本在本季逐月持續改善，儘管我們還有很多工作要做才能實現穩態目標。這是我們的首要任務。

The Cybertruck cell, with 10% higher energy than our Model Y cell, started production on line 2 in Texas. This quarter, we convert to building 100% Cybertruck cells to simplify and focus the factory as we ramp all 4 lines in Phase 1 over the next 3 quarters. Phase 2 of the Texas 4680 facility is currently under construction. The additional 4 lines incorporate further capital efficiencies over Phase 1, and our target is for them to start producing in late 2024.

Cyber​​truck 電池的能量比我們的 Model Y 電池高 10%，已在德克薩斯州的 2 號生產線開始生產。本季度，我們將轉而建造 100% Cyber​​truck 電池，以簡化和集中工廠，因為我們將在接下來的 3 個季度擴大第一階段的所有 4 條生產線。德克薩斯州 4680 工廠的第二期工程目前正在建設中。額外的 4 條生產線在第一階段進一步提高了資本效率，我們的目標是它們在 2024 年底開始生產。

Lastly, in Kato, we're retooling to enable large-scale pilot runs of our next-generation cell designs. Kato's long-term goal is to be the launch pad for new cells, one generation ahead of our mass production facilities, enabling faster iteration and smoother ramp-ups of new designs.

最後，在加藤，我們正在重組，以實現下一代電池設計的大規模試運行。加藤的長期目標是成為新電池的發射台，比我們的大規模生產設施領先一代，從而實現新設計的更快迭代和更平穩的提升。

Thank you. The next question from an institutional investor is, could you please provide an update on capacity expansion plans for company's factories in Berlin and Austin and the opening schedule of Gigafactory Mexico?

謝謝。機構投資者的下一個問題是，您能否介紹一下公司柏林和奧斯汀工廠的產能擴張計劃以及墨西哥超級工廠的開業時間表？

Berlin and Austin factory, the current priority is actually maximize the output from our existing lines by laser focusing on efficiency improvements. As always, maintaining high quality and reducing per unit cost will be as critical as growing the production volume. For Mexico, we are working on infrastructure and factory design in parallel with the engineering development of the new production that we'll be manufacturing there. That's what I can share with that.

柏林和奧斯汀工廠，目前的首要任務實際上是透過專注於效率提高來最大限度地提高我們現有生產線的產量。一如既往，保持高品質和降低單位成本與增加產量一樣重要。對於墨西哥，我們正在致力於基礎設施和工廠設計，同時我們將在那裡製造新產品的工程開發。這就是我可以分享的。

In Mexico, we're laying the groundwork to begin construction and doing all the long lead items, but I think we want to just get a sense for the global economy like before we go full tilt on the Mexico factory. I am worried about the high interest rate environment that we're in. It's -- I just can't emphasize this enough that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment. And as interest rates rise, the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases naturally. So that's -- if interest rates remain high or if they go even higher, it's that much harder to -- for people to buy the car. They simply can't afford it.

在墨西哥，我們正在為開始建造和完成所有長期項目奠定基礎，但我認為我們只想了解全球經濟，就像我們全力投入墨西哥工廠之前一樣。我對我們所處的高利率環境感到擔憂。絕大多數人買車都是為了每月還款，這一點我怎麼強調都不為過。隨著利率上升，每月還款中利息的比例自然會增加。因此，如果利率保持高位或更高，人們購買汽車就會變得更加困難。他們根本買不起。

So -- and we are tracking, I believe, at this point for Model Y to be the selling car on out, not just in revenue but in unit value. If you compare that to the other vehicles that are #2 and #3 and whatnot, they cost much less than our car. So we're just hitting a law of large numbers situations here.

因此，我相信，我們目前正在追蹤 Model Y 是否會成為最暢銷的汽車，不僅在收入方面，而且在單位價值方面。如果你將其與其他#2和#3等車輛進行比較，它們的成本比我們的汽車低得多。所以我們在這裡遇到的是大數定律。

I know people want us advertising. We are advertising. I think there is something to be gained on the advertising front. I don't think it's nothing. But employing people of a car that is great but they cannot afford doesn't really help. So that is really the thing that must be sold, is to make the car affordable or the average person cannot buy it for any amount of money. They simply can't afford it. They can't afford it, so this is a big deal.

我知道人們希望我們做廣告。我們是做廣告的。我認為在廣告方面有一些收穫。我不認為這沒什麼。但僱用擁有一輛很棒但他們買不起的汽車的人並沒有真正的幫助。所以這確實是必須出售的東西，就是讓汽車買得起，否則普通人花多少錢都買不到它。他們根本買不起。他們買不起，所以這是一件大事。

Okay. Thank you very much. The next question is, when do you expect Model 3 Highland to be available in the U.S.? I just wanted to address that, unfortunately, we don't answer product-related questions and timings on earnings call. So let's go to the next one.

好的。非常感謝。下一個問題是，您預計 Model 3 Highland 何時會在美國上市？我只是想解決這個問題，不幸的是，我們不會在財報電話會議上回答與產品相關的問題和時間表。那麼讓我們進入下一個。

Current sell-side consensus assumes that Tesla will deliver 2.3 million vehicles in 2024, representing 28% growth versus 2023 guidance. Is this growth rate achievable without any mass-market launches in 2024? And when does Tesla expect to return to its 50% long-term CAGR?

目前賣方共識假設特斯拉將在 2024 年交付 230 萬輛汽車，比 2023 年指導成長 28%。如果 2024 年沒有向大眾市場推出任何產品，是否可以實現這一成長率？特斯拉預計何時恢復 50% 的長期複合年增長率？

Thanks for the question. When we look at 2024, there are a lot of moving pieces. Elon just talked about what is happening in the macroeconomic environment. So we're focused on growing our volumes in a very cost-efficient manner and are carefully reviewing all our options, and we'll be able to provide a much more meaningful update at our next earnings call.

謝謝你的提問。當我們展望 2024 年時，會發現很多變化。埃隆剛剛談到了宏觀經濟環境中正在發生的事情。因此，我們專注於以非常具有成本效益的方式增加銷量，並仔細審查我們的所有選擇，我們將能夠在下一次財報電話會議上提供更有意義的更新。

Yes. I mean at the risk of stating the obvious, it's not possible to have a compound growth rate of 50% forever or you will exceed the mass of the known universe. So -- but I think we will grow very rapidly, much faster than any other car company on earth by far.

是的。我的意思是，冒著陳述顯而易見的風險，不可能永遠保持 50% 的複合成長率，否則就會超過已知宇宙的質量。所以，但我認為我們的成長將會非常迅速，比迄今為止地球上任何其他汽車公司都要快得多。

Thank you. Next question is, do you have an approximate time line in mind for the robotaxi, driven or nondriven? What excites you most about how this project is progressing?

謝謝。下一個問題是，您是否對機器人出租車（驅動或非驅動）有一個大概的時間線？這個專案的進展最令您興奮的是什麼？

Well, the robotaxi is, I guess, certainly nondriven. The -- I guess, I'm very excited about our progress with autonomy, the end-to-end, nothing but net, self-driving software is amazing. I -- drives me around Austin with no interventions. So it's clearly the right move. So it's really pretty amazing. And obviously, that same software and approach will enable Optimus to do useful things and enable Optimus to learn how to do things simply by looking. So extremely exciting in the long term.

嗯，我猜，機器人計程車肯定是非驅動的。我想，我對我們在自主方面取得的進展感到非常興奮，端到端的、除了網路之外什麼都沒有的自動駕駛軟體是驚人的。我——開車送我在奧斯汀轉悠，沒有任何干預。所以這顯然是正確的舉動。所以這真的很神奇。顯然，同樣的軟體和方法將使 Optimus 能夠做有用的事情，並使 Optimus 能夠透過觀察來​​學習如何做事。從長遠來看非常令人興奮。

As I mentioned before, given that economic output is a number of people times productivity, if you no longer have a constraint on people, effectively, you've got a humanoid robot that can do as much as you'd like, your economy is twice the infinite or infinite for all intents and purposes. So I don't think anyone is going to do it better than Tesla, not by a long shot. Boston Dynamics is impressive, but their robot lacks the brain. They're like the Wizard of Oz or whatever. Yes, lacks the brain. And then you also need to be able to design a humanoid robot in such a way that it can be mass manufactured. And then at some point, the robots will manufacture the robots.

正如我之前提到的，考慮到經濟產出是人數乘以生產力，如果你不再對人有限制，實際上，你已經有了一個可以做你想做的事的人形機器人，你的經濟就是兩倍於無限或無限的所有意圖和目的。所以我認為沒有人會比特斯拉做得更好，至少是不可能的。波士頓動力公司令人印象深刻，但他們的機器人缺乏大腦。他們就像綠野仙蹤之類的。是的，缺腦子。然後你還需要能夠設計一個可以大量生產的人形機器人。然後在某個時候，機器人將製造機器人。

And obviously, we need to make sure that it's a good place for humans in that future. We do not create some variance of the Terminator outcome. So we're going to put a lot of effort into localized control of the humanoid robot. So basically, anyone will be able to shut it off locally, and you can't change that even if you put -- like a software update, you can't change that. It has to be hard-coded.

顯然，我們需要確保未來它對人類來說是一個美好的地方。我們不會對終結者的結果造成一些差異。因此，我們將在人形機器人的在地化控制上投入大量精力。所以基本上，任何人都可以在本地關閉它，即使你像軟體更新一樣，你也無法更改它。它必須是硬編碼的。

Thank you. The next question is, why was the price dropped on FSD if it is getting better and robotaxi is expected so soon?

謝謝。下一個問題是，既然 FSD 越來越好，而且 Robotaxi 預計很快就會降價，那為什麼 FSD 的價格會下降呢？

Well, we just wanted to make it more affordable as more people try it. Yes. I think, over time, the price of FSD will increase proportionate to its value. So we'd regard the current price as a kind of a temporary low.

好吧，我們只是想讓它變得更便宜，因為有更多的人嘗試它。是的。我認為，隨著時間的推移，FSD 的價格將與其價值成正比增長。因此，我們將當前價格視為暫時的低點。

The next question is, again, on FSD. Mercedes is accepting legal liability for when its Level 3 autonomous driving system, Drive Pilot, is active. Is Tesla planning to accept legal liability for FSD? And if so, when?

下一個問題還是關於 FSD。梅賽德斯將承擔其 3 級自動駕駛系統 Drive Pilot 啟動時的法律責任。特斯拉是否計劃承擔 FSD 的法律責任？如果是的話，什麼時候？

Well, there's a lot of people that assume we have legal liability, judging by the lawsuits. We're certainly not being let off the hook on that front whether we'd like to or wouldn't like to.

嗯，從訴訟來看，很多人認為我們負有法律責任。無論我們願意或不願意，我們都不會在這方面擺脫困境。

I mean I think it's important to remember for everyone that Mercedes' system is limited to roads in Nevada and some certain cities in California. It doesn't work in the snow or the fog. It must have -- need a car and marked lanes, only 40 miles per hour. Our system is meant to be holistic and drive in any conditions, so we obviously have a much more capable approach. But with those kind of limitations, it's really not very useful.

我的意思是，我認為每個人都必須記住，梅賽德斯的系統僅限於內華達州和加利福尼亞州某些城市的道路。它在雪或霧中不起作用。它必須有——需要一輛車和有標記的車道，每小時只有 40 英里。我們的系統是整體性的，可以在任何條件下行駛，因此我們顯然擁有更強大的方法。但由於這些限制，它確實不是很有用。

Now I think some people understand the profundity of the Tesla AI system, mostly, but very, very few. It's basically baby AGI. It has to understand reality in order to drive, a baby AGI.

現在我想有些人了解特斯拉人工智慧系統的深奧，大部分人，但非常非常少。它基本上是嬰兒 AGI。它必須了解現實才能驅動嬰兒 AGI。

Thank you. The next question on Optimus, will Optimus be working on Gigafactory lines next year? If so, how many would you guess will be deployed?

謝謝。關於 Optimus 的下一個問題是，Optimus 明年會在 Gigafactory 生產線上工作嗎？如果是這樣，您猜會部署多少人？

I think at this point, we are not ready to discuss details of the Optimus program, but we will make -- provide periodic updates online. So as you can see, we're -- Optimus, a year ago, could barely walk and now it can do yoga. So a few years from now, it can probably do ballet.

我認為目前我們還沒有準備好討論 Optimus 計劃的細節，但我們將定期在線提供更新。正如你所看到的，我們──擎天柱，一年前，幾乎不能走路，現在可以做瑜珈了。所以幾年後，它可能可以做芭蕾舞。

Sounds good. And the last question from investors is neural net path planning represents a significant advance in capability and safety for FSD. What steps is Tesla taking to make this technology available outside the U.S.?

聽起來不錯。投資者提出的最後一個問題是，神經網路路徑規劃代表了 FSD 在能力和安全性方面的重大進步。特斯拉正在採取哪些措施讓這項技術在美國以外的地區可用？

Yes, our approach has been to try to get it -- like, the more places we're trying to make it work, the harder the problem is. So the reason we don't do it in all countries simultaneously is that it would take much longer to make it work anywhere at all. So that's why it's currently just North America. And also for most parts of the world, you have to get approval before deploying things, whereas in the U.S., you can deploy things at risk or at least you can take liability for what you're deploying. So it's -- whereas most countries require some sort of extensive approval program. So we only want to go through that extensive approval program when we think it's kind of ready for prime time in that country.

是的，我們的方法是努力實現它——就像，我們嘗試讓它發揮作用的地方越多，問題就越困難。因此，我們之所以沒有在所有國家同時這樣做，是因為要讓它在任何地方都發揮作用需要更長的時間。這就是為什麼目前只有北美。而且對於世界上的大多數地區，您必須在部署之前獲得批准，而在美國，您可以冒險部署事物，或者至少您可以對您所部署的內容承擔責任。確實如此——而大多數國家都需要某種廣泛的批准計劃。因此，只有當我們認為該項目已經為該國的黃金時段做好準備時，我們才想通過該廣泛的批准計劃。

I apologize it's not out in those countries, but we keep finding ways to make it better. And it really -- it needs to drive such that it exceeds the unsupervised, significantly exceeds the probability of entry of a human, significantly better, a lower probability of entry than a human by far. I think we're tracking to that point very quickly.

很抱歉，這些國家尚未推出該功能，但我們一直在尋找方法使其變得更好。它確實需要駕駛，使其超越無人監督，顯著超過人類進入的機率，明顯更好，遠低於人類的進入機率。我認為我們很快就會達到這一點。

Obviously, in the past, I've been overly optimistic about this. The reason I've been overly optimistic is that the progress tends to sort of look like a log curve, which is that you have kind of rapid initial improvements that if you were to extrapolate that sort of rapid, fairly linear rate of improvement, you get to self-driving quite quickly, but then the rate of improvement curves over logarithmically as well as the asymptote. That's now happened several times. I would characterize our progress in real world AI as a series of stacked log curves. I think that's also true in other parts of AI, like AI Lens and whatnot, a series of stacked log curves. Each log curve is higher than the last one. So if we keep stacking them, we keep stacking logs, eventually, we get to FSD.

顯然，過去我對此過於樂觀。我過於樂觀的原因是，進展往往看起來像一條對數曲線，也就是說，你有一種快速的初始改進，如果你要推斷出那種快速、相當線性的改進率，你就會發現很快就能實現自動駕駛，但改進率會呈現對數曲線和漸近線。現在這種情況已經發生好幾次了。我將現實世界中人工智慧的進展描述為一系列堆疊的對數曲線。我認為人工智慧的其他部分也是如此，像是人工智慧鏡頭之類的一系列堆疊的對數曲線。每條對數曲線都高於上一條。因此，如果我們繼續堆疊它們，我們繼續堆疊日誌，最終，我們就會得到 FSD。

Thank you. Let's now go to analyst questions. The first question comes from Will Stein from Truist.

謝謝。現在讓我們來回答分析師的問題。第一個問題來自 Truist 的 Will Stein。

We learned earlier on the call, it sounds like you don't think the truck will ramp to significant volume until its third year of production. Should we have a similar anticipation for the ramp of the next-gen platform? Or is there any reason that we should be maybe more optimistic or pessimistic about the ramp profile there?

我們早些時候在電話會議上了解到，聽起來您認為卡車在生產的第三年之前不會大幅增加產量。我們是否應該對下一代平台的崛起抱持類似的預期？或者是否有任何理由讓我們應該對那裡的斜坡曲線更加樂觀或悲觀？

Yes. I mean, to be clear, it's not really the third year of production. It's kind of like the 18th month of production is roughly my guess. So it's just that they happen -- it will happen if not the -- it starts this year, spans next year and gets to 2025. So technically, there are 3 calendar years in there, but there's actually only 18 months, not 3 years. I would be very disappointed if it took us -- and that would be shocking if it took us 3 years. But 18 months from initial deliveries to have -- to reach volume and reach prosperity with an immense -- I can't tell you how much -- the blood, sweat and tears level required to achieve that is just staggering. I have been through it many times. Then, here we go again.

是的。我的意思是，需要明確的是，這並不是真正的第三年製作。大概是第 18 個月的產量是我的粗略猜測。所以只是它們發生了——如果不是的話它就會發生——它從今年開始，跨越明年，一直到2025 年。所以從技術上來說，其中有3 個日曆年，但實際上只有18 個月，而不是3 年。如果我們花了三年時間，我會非常失望——如果我們花了三年時間，那將是令人震驚的。但從最初的交付到達到產量並達到繁榮——我無法告訴你有多少——實現這一目標所需的血、汗和淚水水平是驚人的。我已經經歷過很多次了。然後，我們又來了。

A similar path for the next-gen platform?

下一代平台是否有類似的路徑？

I mean there's like unique complexity to Cybertruck.

我的意思是 Cyber​​truck 具有獨特的複雜性。

Yes. I mean Cybertruck is...

是的。我的意思是賽博卡車...

Hence, the 18 months.

因此，18個月。

Yes. I mean we dug our own grave with Cybertruck. Nobody, generally, probably digs a grave better than themselves. And so it is -- Cybertruck's one of those special products that comes along only once in a long while. And special products that come along once in a long while are just incredibly difficult to bring to market, to reach volume, to be prosperous. It's fundamental to the nature of the newness. So now the sort of high-volume, low-cost smaller vehicle is actually much more conventional.

是的。我的意思是我們用 Cyber​​truck 挖了自己的墳墓。一般來說，沒有人比自己挖墳墓更好。事實也是如此——Cyber​​truck 是很長一段時間才出現一次的特殊產品之一。長時間出現的特殊產品很難推向市場、達到銷售量、實現繁榮。這是新事物本質的基礎。因此，現在這種大批量、低成本的小型車輛實際上更加傳統。

Yes. In terms of like the technologies we're putting into it, we didn't have to invent how to bend full hard stainless steel or have mega 9,000-ton castings or the largest hot stamping in the world or new -- high volt

是的。就我們正在投入的技術而言，我們不必發明如何彎曲全硬不銹鋼或擁有巨型 9,000 噸鑄件或世界上最大的熱沖壓件或新的高壓

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

quite in the same way as the Cybertruck. I think it will be quite a fast ramp. So as I was saying, we're doing everything possible to simplify that vehicle in order to achieve a units per minute level that is unheard of in the auto industry.

與 Cyber​​truck 非常相似。我認為這將是一個相當快的斜坡。正如我所說，我們正在盡一切可能簡化該車輛，以達到汽車行業聞所未聞的每分鐘單位數水平。

Yes. I mean, a single location makes it easier to automate. It also makes it lower cost. Yes, that's intrinsically lower cost.

是的。我的意思是，單一位置更容易自動化。這也使其成本更低。是的，這本質上成本較低。

Yes. Let's be clear, it will be cool, but it's utilitarian. It's not meant to be -- fill you with awe and magic. It can get you from A to B. It will be still beautiful, but it's utility.

是的。讓我們明確一點，這很酷，但很實用。它並不意味著——讓你充滿敬畏和魔法。它可以帶你從 A 點到 B 點。它仍然很漂亮，但很實用。

That's not 14 inches of travel suspension, as an example.

例如，這不是 14 吋的行程懸吊。

Yes. So I mean, the Cybertruck has a lot of bells and whistles.

是的。所以我的意思是，Cyber​​truck 有很多附加功能。

All right. Thank you very much. Let's go to Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

好的。非常感謝。讓我們來看看新街研究公司的皮埃爾費拉古 (Pierre Ferragu)。

Hey, can you hear me fine, yes?

嘿，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I have first like a follow-up question on FSD and pricing and adoption. So I agree with you that as FSD improves, we should see its value increasing. But I guess like the ultimate values of FSD, which is to be able to handle like a robotaxi is not going to necessarily interest everybody, and you have a bit of a degraded version that would be like a chauffeur service where the car drives by itself, but you still have to be in the car and around. And then there is like the hands-on, eyes-on version of the service. And I guess, there should be like much lower cost, lower feature kind of variance of the service that could have a very large penetration on your installed base and a more expensive one that would remain at a lower penetration level. So I'm just wondering if you're taking that.

我首先想問一個關於 FSD 以及定價和採用的後續問題。所以我同意你的觀點，隨著 FSD 的改進，我們應該會看到它的價值不斷增加。但我想 FSD 的最終價值，即能夠像機器人出租車一樣操作，並不一定會引起每個人的興趣，而且你有一個有點退化的版本，就像汽車自動駕駛的司機服務，但您仍然必須在車內及其周圍。然後還有可以親眼目睹的服務版本。我想，應該有一種成本更低、功能更小的服務差異，可以在您的安裝基礎上有很大的滲透率，而更昂貴的服務將保持在較低的滲透水平。所以我只是想知道你是否接受了。

And last but not least, like the simplest version of FSD available are going to work from a technical perspective, probably before like the ultimate robotaxi version can work, if ever. And so I'm wondering how you take that into account and how you're thinking like the financial contribution of FSD over time and whether you could evolve your pricing along that kind of tiers to increase adoption.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，從技術角度來看，最簡單的 FSD 版本將會發揮作用，可能先於最終的 Robotaxi 版本（如果有的話）發揮作用。因此，我想知道您如何考慮這一點，以及您如何看待 FSD 隨著時間的推移所做的財務貢獻，以及您是否可以沿著這種層級調整定價以提高採用率。

Yes. I mean, a fully autonomous vehicle, I think, Pierre, sort of the economics of an autonomous vehicle are truly astounding in a positive way. When you look at passenger vehicles today, they only get about 10 to 12 hours of usage per week. That's -- if you drive 1.5 hours a day on average, that's roughly 10 hours a week out of 168 hours. And then there's -- also you're going to have parking and insurance. You got to take care of the car. It's like there's a lot of overhead.

是的。我的意思是，皮埃爾，我認為，一輛完全自動駕駛的汽車，自動駕駛汽車的經濟性在積極方面確實令人震驚。當您觀察當今的乘用車時，您會發現它們每週僅使用約 10 至 12 小時。也就是說，如果您平均每天開車 1.5 小時，那麼每週 168 小時中大約有 10 小時。然後還有——你還將擁有停車位和保險。你得照顧好車。好像有很多開銷。

So I mean, yes, it's like the economics of the system are just insanely positive given that the car -- like, all of the cars we're making and have made for a while, we believe, are capable of full autonomy. So then if you're able to, say, increase the utility of that car by a factor of 5, which only means that you've -- it's being used for maybe 50 hours a week out of 168, so you still notice -- you're still assuming -- that still assumes less than 1/3 of the hours of the week it is doing something useful. You've increased the value of that by 5, but it still costs the same. Like, you have something -- then we're a hardware company with software margins.

所以我的意思是，是的，鑑於我們相信，我們正在製造和已經製造了一段時間的所有汽車都能夠完全自主，因此系統的經濟性非常積極。那麼，如果你能夠將那輛車的實用性提高 5 倍，這只意味著你每週使用它的時間可能是 168 小時，其中可能有 50 小時，所以你仍然會注意到 - - 你仍然假設-仍然假設每週只有不到1/3 的時間在做有用的事情。您已將其價值增加了 5，但成本仍然相同。就像，你有一些東西——那麼我們就是一家擁有軟體利潤的硬體公司。

Pierre, do you have a follow-up?

皮埃爾，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. I have a different topic for you that I have, if that's okay. It's about like your gross margin in the quarter. Could you give us a sense of, like, in how the gross margin evolved sequentially? How much was the impact of idle cost? How much was, like, the sequential benefit, I imagine, of production ramping at Berlin and Austin? And then I saw, like, this massive jump in energy storage, a very strong positive surprise. So if you can give us the background on that and tell us how we should think about that gross margin going forward.

是的。如果可以的話，我有一個不同的主題給你。這大約就像你本季的毛利率一樣。您能否讓我們了解一下毛利率是如何連續演變的？閒置成本的影響有多大？我想，柏林和奧斯汀的產量增加所帶來的連續效益是多少？然後我看到了能量儲存的巨大飛躍，這是一個非常強烈的正面驚喜。因此，您能否向我們介紹這方面的背景，並告訴我們應該如何考慮未來的毛利率。

Thanks for the question. So in terms of -- we have a few different aspects of your question. So for -- if I just look at from a Q3 perspective, obviously, factory idle time had an impact. It did impact by -- and I won't give you the exact percentage, but it had a decent impact for the quarter. And when you look at the other pieces, which we are trying to do, we did see certain of our other factories ramping up pretty well, right? And they actually contributed pretty well to the margin for this quarter. In fact, one of the factories came pretty close to in terms of per unit cost to where we are for our other established factory, which is Fremont. So that was a positive in the quarter.

謝謝你的提問。因此，就您的問題而言，我們有幾個不同的方面。因此，如果我僅從第三季的角度來看，顯然工廠閒置時間產生了影響。它確實產生了影響——我不會給你確切的百分比，但它對本季度產生了良好的影響。當你看看我們正在努力做的其他部分時，我們確實看到我們的其他一些工廠發展得很好，對嗎？事實上，他們為本季的利潤做出了相當大的貢獻。事實上，其中一家工廠的單位成本非常接近我們另一家已建立的工廠（弗里蒙特）的水平。所以這是本季的正面因素。

When it comes to energy margins, Megapack deployment was the key driver there. And that product has done well. On the cost curve also, we've been able to do a lot there. But I do want to caution that Megapack deployments are a bit lumpy. So yes, we had a great quarter this period. But depending upon where we are trying to deploy that product in different markets, you would see periods where there would be downward pressure on deployment because of us trying to get the product to that base way...

當談到能源利潤時，Megapack 的部署是關鍵驅動因素。該產品表現良好。在成本曲線上，我們也做了很多工作。但我確實想提醒大家，Megapack 的部署有點不穩定。所以，是的，我們這個季度的表現非常出色。但是，根據我們嘗試在不同市場中部署該產品的位置，您會看到部署方面會面臨下行壓力的時期，因為我們試圖將產品推向那種基本方式...

Yes, the product in transit. Yes.

是的，產品在運送途中。是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Thank you very much. Let's go to Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.

好的。非常感謝。讓我們請教沃爾夫研究中心的 Rod Lache。

Really nice to see the rate of vehicle cost improvement despite the downtime that you took. You've taken now about $2,000 out of the average vehicle costs over the past year. Can you give us maybe a sense of the rate of improvement that you see from the changes that you alluded to, the factory changes you alluded to? Is there a way maybe to convey the speed of improvement on your existing product from here? And then related to that, can you share the timing of your next gen -- the lower-priced product that you talked about earlier this year?

儘管您經歷了停機時間，但很高興看到車輛成本的改善率。現在您已經從過去一年的平均車輛成本中節省了大約 2,000 美元。您能否讓我們了解您從您提到的變化、您提到的工廠變化中看到的改進速度？有沒有辦法從這裡傳達現有產品的改進速度？與此相關的是，您能否分享一下您的下一代產品（您今年早些時候談到的低價產品）的上市時間？

Yes. So just in terms of product margins, there are lots of puts and takes when you look at this. There are certain things which we control, and there are certain things which we don't control. We get -- we expect that we'll get some benefits from our cost reduction efforts, which are all underway. But on the other hand, we just finished our factory upgrades late in Q3. Some of these factories are still in the early ramp phase in Q4. We're still not up to where we want those factories to be. So they will impact in the near term. Plus, like Elon mentioned, we're going to be ramping Cybertruck, which is going to be another headwind, which we will be dealing with.

是的。因此，就產品利潤而言，當你看到這一點時，你會發現很多看跌期權和賣出期權。有些事情是我們可以控制的，有些事情是我們無法控制的。我們預計我們將從我們正在進行的成本削減努力中獲得一些好處。但另一方面，我們在第三季末剛完成了工廠升級。其中一些工廠在第四季仍處於早期產能階段。我們仍然沒有達到我們希望這些工廠達到的目標。因此它們將在短期內產生影響。另外，就像埃隆提到的那樣，我們將大力發展 Cyber​​truck，這將是我們將要應對的另一個逆風。

On top of all that, there's overall uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, which even makes it harder to predict precisely as to where we land. But yes, this is something which -- it's an evolving thing which we're observing every day and reacting to it on a daily basis.

最重要的是，宏觀經濟環境總體上存在不確定性，這甚至使得準確預測我們的落腳點變得更加困難。但是，是的，這是一個不斷發展的事物，我們每天都在觀察並做出反應。

I would just say that on the cost reduction efforts, like we are not -- we are unflagging in our pursuit of additional cost downs for 2024. We do have a good pipeline of them and work on both the engineering side and the factory operations side. And our intention is to like maintain or exceed the trend that you saw. We're trying as hard as we possibly can.

我只想說，在降低成本方面，我們正在不懈地追求 2024 年進一步降低成本。我們確實擁有良好的管道，並且在工程方面和工廠運營方面都在努力。我們的目的是維持或超越您所看到的趨勢。我們正在盡我們所能地努力。

The timing of the next-gen product, can you share that?

下一代產品的發佈時間，可以分享一下嗎？

Not at this time.

目前還不行。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, obviously, price is also a driver of demand, but that's obviously not happening in a vacuum. And you mentioned that -- I think you mentioned at some point during this call that you're also maybe hitting the law of large numbers on some of your products. Can you just share how you're thinking about price elasticity just at this point in this macro environment, and any thoughts along those lines?

好的。作為後續行動，顯然，價格也是需求的驅動因素，但這顯然不是在真空中發生的。你提到過——我想你在這次電話會議中的某個時刻提到過，你的某些產品可能也遇到了大數定律。您能否分享一下您在當前宏觀環境下對價格彈性的看法，以及相關的想法？

I think that there's very significant price elasticity. I mean to be totally frank, if our car costs the same as a Rav4, nobody would buy a Rav4, or at least they're very unlikely to. It's worth noting that a lot of these incentives like the tax credit and whatnot, they're actually very difficult for the average person to access because they -- most people do not have $10,000 or even $7,500 burning a hole in their bank account. A lot of -- a large number of people are living paycheck to paycheck and with a lot of debt. They've got credit card debt, mortgage debt. So yes, it's -- that's reality for most people. It's sometimes difficult for people who have high income, and when I say high, it'd be like someone who's earning over $200,000 a year, to understand what life is like for someone who is earning $50,000 or $60,000 or $70,000 a year, which is most people.

我認為價格彈性非常大。坦白說，如果我們的汽車成本與 Rav4 相同，那麼沒有人會購買 Rav4，或者至少他們不太可能購買。值得注意的是，許多激勵措施，如稅收抵免等，對於普通人來說實際上很難獲得，因為大多數人的銀行帳戶上沒有 10,000 美元甚至 7,500 美元的資金。很多——很多人靠薪水過活，背負著大量債務。他們有信用卡債務、抵押貸款債務。所以，是的，這就是大多數人的現實。對於高收入的人來說，有時很難，當我說高時，就像年收入超過20 萬美元的人一樣，很難理解年收入50,000 美元、60,000 美元或70,000 美元的人的生活是什麼樣的，這就是大多數人。

So like, for a lot of people, like, this tax credit just -- they can't front $7,500 for 18 months or even 6 months to -- for the tax credit, and they actually don't, in some case, even have that $7,500 in taxes. So it's really just the vast regard to people is how much money do they have to pay immediately and how much per month. That's it. They stop right there. And our car is still much more expensive than a Rav4 when you look at it that way.

所以，對很多人來說，這項稅收抵免只是——他們無法在 18 個月甚至 6 個月內預付 7,500 美元——以獲得稅收抵免，而且在某些情況下，他們實際上甚至沒有有那7,500 美元的稅。因此，人們真正關心的是他們必須立即支付多少錢以及每月多少錢。就是這樣。他們就停在那裡。這樣看來，我們的車仍然比 Rav4 貴得多。

One other thing which I'll add, when you look at car buying in general, we're trying to get to the next set of EV adopters.

我要補充的另一件事是，當您總體考慮汽車購買時，我們正在努力吸引下一批電動車採用者。

Not an EV adopter, just who wants a great car.

不是電動車採用者，只是想要一輛好車的人。

Exactly.

確切地。

It's not -- so now you get things like -- honestly, I would say, like, it somewhat correlates with the why doesn't everyone work from home crowd. I'm like -- I mean this is like some real Marie Antoinette vibes from people who say why isn't everyone work from home. Like, what about all the people that have to come to the factory and fill the cars or all the people that have to go to the restaurant and make your food and deliver your food. It's like what are you talking about you -- I mean, how detached from reality does the work-from-home crowd have to be while they take advantage of all those who do -- who cannot work from home? So I mean, you have to say, like, "Why did I sleep in the factory so many times?" Because it mattered.

事實並非如此——所以現在你會得到類似的資訊——老實說，我想說，這在某種程度上與為什麼不是每個人都在家工作有關。我想——我的意思是，這就像一些真正的瑪麗安托瓦內特的氛圍，人們說為什麼不是每個人都在家工作。例如，所有必須來工廠加油的人，或是所有必須去餐廳製作食物和送食物的人呢？這就像你在說什麼——我的意思是，在家工作的人群必須多麼脫離現實，而他們利用了所有那些不能在家工作的人？所以我的意思是，你必須說，“為什麼我在工廠裡睡了這麼多次？”因為這很重要。

So I just can't emphasize again how important cost is. It's not an optional thing for most people. It is a necessary thing. We have to make our cars more affordable that people can buy it. And I keep harping on this interest thing, but I mean it just raises the cost of the car. I mean we're looking at an internal analysis, which I know we -- we think is more or less on track that when you look at the cost -- or the price reductions we've made in, say, the Model Y and you compare that to how much people's monthly payment has risen due to interest rates, the price of the Model Y is almost unchanged.

所以我無法再次強調成本的重要性。對於大多數人來說，這不是一個可選的事情。這是一件必要的事。我們必須讓我們的汽車更便宜，讓人們能夠購買。我一直在談論這個有趣的事情，但我的意思是它只會增加汽車的成本。我的意思是，我們正在研究一項內部分析，我知道我們——我們認為，當你考慮成本——或者我們在 Model Y 和與人們每月因利率而增加的付款額進行比較，Model Y 的價格幾乎沒有變化。

If you factor in the changing interest rates.

如果考慮到利率變動。

Yes, which is -- this is what I'm trying to say. The thing that matters is the monthly pay. It's how much money do they have to put down and do they literally have that in their bank account or their check balance, and then what is the monthly payment. And it doesn't matter how -- if that monthly payment is principal interest or whatever, it's just a number, and that number has to not cause their bank account to go negative.

是的，這就是——這就是我想說的。重要的是每個月的薪水。問題是他們必須存多少錢，他們的銀行帳戶或支票餘額中是否確實有這筆錢，然後是每月還款額。不管如何——如果每月還款是本金或其他什麼，它只是一個數字，而且這個數字不能導致他們的銀行帳戶出現負數。

As it -- so going from near 0 interest rates to kind of the current very high interest rates, the actual monthly payment is basically the same. It's just a bunch more of it is going to interest. And there are some incremental challenges beyond that, which is the difficulty of getting credit at all has increased. And so there are a number of people who simply cannot get credit, period. Even if they've got a job and everything is solid, the banks are a little gun shy on handing out credit given that a bunch of them kicked the bucket earlier this year.

因此，從接近 0 的利率到當前非常高的利率，實際每月還款額基本上相同。只是還有更多的內容會讓人感興趣。除此之外，還有一些增量挑戰，即獲得信貸的難度增加了。因此，有很多人根本無法獲得信貸，就這樣。即使他們已經找到了工作並且一切都很穩定，但銀行在發放信貸方面還是有點害羞，因為他們中的一些人今年早些時候就已經去世了。

Yes. There's also just fewer options. Even if they hand out credit, there's fewer banks to give them.

是的。選擇也較少。即使他們提供信貸，提供給他們的銀行也更少。

Digital banks still exist. Well, if your bank does not exist, you have to establish a relationship with a new bank. And so a lot of regional banks have died, and I mean even Credit Suisse, I mean, geez, that was a shocker. You've got a 160-year-old-ish Swiss institution that doesn't exist anymore. That's mind-blowing. And I think there's still quite a few shoes to drop on the bad credit situation. I mean commercial real estate obviously is in terrible shape. Credit card debt has been rising significantly. The credit card interest rates are usurious. It's over 20% interest rates, meaning like -- which over time just becomes obviously extremely punishing because if somebody's paying 20% interest on their credit cards, it means they cannot pay them off. And if you cannot pay them off and you're still accruing interest at 20%, you're at best headed to a bad place.

數位銀行仍然存在。那麼，如果您的銀行不存在，您必須與新銀行建立關係。所以很多地區性銀行都倒閉了，我的意思甚至是瑞士信貸銀行，我的意思是，天啊，這真是令人震驚。一家擁有 160 年歷史的瑞士機構如今已不復存在。這真是令人興奮。我認為，在不良的信用狀況下，仍有不少問題需要解決。我的意思是商業房地產的狀況顯然很糟糕。信用卡債務大幅上升。信用卡的利率是高利貸。利率超過 20%，這意味著——隨著時間的推移，這顯然會變得極其懲罰性的，因為如果有人用信用卡支付 20% 的利息，這意味著他們無法還清貸款。如果你無法還清貸款，並且仍以 20% 的利率累積利息，那麼你最多只能走向一個糟糕的地方。

Thank you. Let's go to next question from George from Canaccord.

謝謝。讓我們回答 Canaccord 的 George 提出的下一個問題。

Just to focus on the cost per vehicle coming down in future quarters as you discussed in your written remarks, I'm curious as to what the levers of that could be. Is it more scale, more factory utilization? Is it material cost reductions? Are there things like Gigacasting? I mean can you just kind of give us some data points to give us confidence that that's going to come down over time?

正如您在書面評論中所討論的那樣，為了關注未來幾個季度每輛車的成本下降，我很好奇其中的槓桿可能是什麼。是否規模更大、工廠利用率更高？是材料成本降低嗎？有Gigacasting這樣的東西嗎？我的意思是，您能否給我們一些數據點，讓我們相信隨著時間的推移，這種情況會下降？

And if I can sneak one in, please, there are press reports, and I know how perilous it is to believe some of these, but they say that you've included radar as an option in some Model Ys in China. And I'm just here to ask if that's true. And if so, why?

如果我能偷偷溜進去，有新聞報道，我知道相信其中一些報道是多麼危險，但他們說中國的一些 Model Y 中已經將雷達作為一個選項。我來這裡只是想問這是否屬實。如果是這樣，為什麼？

We've not included radar. We have radar as -- a Tesla-designed radar is an experiment in Model S and X. That's it. We'll see whether that experiment is worth it, but there are no plans to integrate radar into 3 or Y. Just as humans drive well, and in fact, an excellent human driver can drive with amazing safety simply with their eyes, the car will far exceed the average human safety just with visual, far, far, far. Because, I mean, the car is looking at all directions all at once, and we don't have eyes on the back of our head. So -- and the computer never gets tired and never gets distracted, get drunk, hopefully.

我們沒有包括雷達。我們有雷達——特斯拉設計的雷達是 Model S 和 X 上的一個實驗。就是這樣。我們將看看這個實驗是否值得，但目前還沒有計劃將雷達整合到3 或Y 中。就像人類駕駛得很好一樣，事實上，優秀的人類駕駛員只需用眼睛就能以驚人的安全性駕駛，汽車僅用視覺就遠超過人類一般的安全，遠，遠，遠。因為，我的意思是，汽車會同時觀察各個方向，而我們的眼睛不會盯著後腦勺。所以——計算機永遠不會疲倦，永遠不會分心，希望能喝醉。

And so radar is -- what really matters is how much does it affect the probability of an accident. And in order for the radar to be effective, you have to be able to do radar-only braking. You have to do actions that are radar only. Otherwise, you get this disambiguation problem between vision and radar. That's why we actually turned off the radar in cars historically that we had shipped. All 3 and Y used to have radar, but we turned it off because the radar actually generated more noise than signal. Now the Tesla-designed radar is a high-resolution radar that has some potential to be useful, but the jury is still very much out on whether that is, in fact, the case.

所以雷達——真正重要的是它對事故發生機率的影響有多大。為了使雷達發揮作用，您必須能夠進行僅雷達煞車。您必須執行僅雷達操作。否則，您會遇到視覺和雷達之間的歧義問題。這就是為什麼我們實際上關閉了歷史上發貨的汽車中的雷達。 3 和 Y 都曾經有雷達，但我們把它關掉了，因為雷達實際上產生的噪音多於訊號。現在，特斯拉設計的雷達是一種高解析度雷達，具有一定的實用潛力，但對於事實是否如此，尚無定論。

On the cost question, I guess, from the vehicle side, like as Drew mentioned earlier, we are always trying to engineer our products to be cheaper to make and more efficient to make. That comes obviously on the engineering side as we come up with new innovations but as well on the supply chain side with our partners, we work with them to automate some of their lines, remove their bottlenecks and their high cost as well. On the logistics side, getting parts to the factory. It's not like a one thing. You have to attack cost everywhere, and we do it real closely at all times.

關於成本問題，我想，從車輛方面來看，就像德魯之前提到的那樣，我們一直在努力設計我們的產品，使其製造成本更低、製造效率更高。這顯然是在工程方面，因為我們提出了新的創新，但在供應鏈方面，我們與合作夥伴合作，我們與他們合作實現一些生產線的自動化，消除他們的瓶頸和高成本。在物流方面，將零件運送到工廠。這不像是一件事。你必須在任何地方都降低成本，而我們始終在密切關注這一點。

And operations efficiency. All of the above.

以及營運效率。上述所有的。

Yes. I would say there's a whole laundry list of things, which we are chasing. We internally call it the cost attack where we are literally going line by line and saying how can we make it better. And it's a grind.

是的。我想說的是，我們正在追逐的事情有一整套清單。我們在內部稱之為成本攻擊，我們實際上是在逐行討論如何使其變得更好。這是一種磨礪。

It's like Game of Thrones but pennies. I mean at first approximation, if you've got a $40,000 car, and roughly 10,000 items in that car, that means each thing, on average, costs $4. So in order to get the cost down, say, by 10%, you have to get $0.40 out of each part on average. It is a game of pennies.

這就像《權力的遊戲》，但只是幾便士。我的意思是，初步估計，如果您有一輛價值 40,000 美元的汽車，車內大約有 10,000 件物品，這意味著每件物品平均成本為 4 美元。因此，為了降低成本（例如降低 10%），您必須平均從每個零件中獲得 ​​0.40 美元。這是一場金錢遊戲。

We play it willingly.

我們心甘情願地玩。

Yes. We've done it many, many times. And even something as simple as like a sticker, like, there's too many stickers internally in the car that nobody ever sees. There's something as simple as a QR code. You may think, well, putting a QR code on a part, why don't just put them on there. It's like, well, are we actually going to use that QR code?

是的。我們已經做過很多很多次了。甚至像是貼紙這樣簡單的東西，例如，汽車內部有太多沒人看過的貼紙。有一些像二維碼一樣簡單的東西。您可能會想，既然在零件上貼上二維碼，為什麼不直接把它們貼在那裡呢？就好像，我們真的要用那個二維碼嗎？

Costs $0.01.

成本 0.01 美元。

Yes. Exactly. And then inevitably, somehow the QR code doesn't go on properly or you can't read it properly, and it stops the line.

是的。確切地。然後不可避免地，二維碼無法正常運行，或者您無法正確讀取它，從而導致生產線停止。

Costs more than $0.01.

成本超過 0.01 美元。

Yes. Absolutely. So chipping away, with -- I mean it is trying to -- it does feel like digging a tunnel with a spoon at times.

是的。絕對地。因此，用——我的意思是它正在嘗試——一點一點地鑿開，有時確實感覺就像用湯匙挖隧道一樣。

Like very much escaping prison.

非常像越獄。

Yes.

是的。

On top of it, like we said, we did some factory upgrades, so we expect volume to go up. That would also bring some savings from higher production. But then on the flip side, we're going to be ramping a new product like Cybertruck, which we talked about. So yes, so those are the real puts and takes which we are working for.

最重要的是，正如我們所說，我們對工廠進行了一些升級，因此我們預計產量會增加。這也將透過提高產量帶來一些節省。但另一方面，我們將推出像我們討論過的 Cyber​​truck 這樣的新產品。所以，是的，這些就是我們正在努力爭取的真正的看跌期權和賣出選擇權。

Yes. But there's not like some -- accidently, some brick of gold that we've got, unfortunately. And it's -- we're trying to be very rigorous about improving the quality and capability of the car because -- like, any fool can reduce the cost of a car by making it worse and just deleting functionality and capability. That's how I'd call this, sort of any fool that -- like, if you want to like lose weight and you said, "Well, I need to lose 15 pounds right away," well, you could chop your arm off, but then you're sitting here with one arm, you're still fat.

是的。但不幸的是，我們並不像某些人那樣偶然地得到了一塊金磚。我們正努力非常嚴格地提高汽車的品質和性能，因為任何傻瓜都可以透過讓汽車變得更糟並刪除功能和性能來降低汽車的成本。這就是我所說的，任何傻瓜都會這樣說——比如，如果你想減肥，你說，「好吧，我需要立即減掉 15 磅，」好吧，你可以砍掉你的手臂，但當當你用一隻手臂坐在這裡時，你仍然很胖。

You got to work out.

你必須鍛鍊身體。

Yes, you actually have to eat less food and work out. That's the actual way.

是的，你實際上必須少吃食物並鍛鍊身體。這才是真正的方法。

And you need doctor's advice.

並且你需要醫生的建議。

Yes. It's not super fun because food is delicious. And personally, I'm not -- I don't love working out. I know some of you do. I wish I did, but I don't. Unless moving the mouse consists of working out, in which case, I love moving the mouse.

是的。這不是很有趣，因為食物很美味。就我個人而言，我不喜歡運動。我知道你們有些人是這樣的。我希望我這麼做了，但我沒有。除非移動滑鼠是為了鍛煉，在這種情況下，我喜歡移動滑鼠。

All right. Let's go to Colin Langan from Wells Fargo. Colin?

好的。讓我們請富國銀行的科林·蘭根來報道。科林？

Sorry about that. Do you hear me now?

對於那個很抱歉。你現在聽到我說話了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

You said in the commentary that you're not going full tilt on the plant in Mexico until there are signs that the economy is strong. Can you continue at a 50% CAGR without that plant? And where would that come from? And any color on what you mean of sort of not going full tilt? Could that plant get delayed indefinitely? Or what are you kind of talking about?

您在評論中表示，在有跡象表明經濟強勁之前，您不會全力推動墨西哥工廠的建設。如果沒有該工廠，您能否繼續維持 50% 的複合年增長率？那會從哪裡來呢？你所說的「不全力以赴」有什麼顏色嗎？該工廠會無限期延後嗎？或者你在談論什麼？

No, we're definitely making the factory in Mexico. We feel very good about that. We put a lot of effort into looking at different locations, and we feel very good about that location, and we are going to build a factory there. And it's going to be great. The question is really just one of timing. And it's going to be a broken record on the interest front. It's just interest rates have to come down. Like, if interest rates keep rising, you just fundamentally reduce affordability. It is just the same as increasing the price of the car. So I just don't have visibility into -- if you can tell me what the interest rates are, I can tell you when we should build the factory. We're going to build it. And I mean we think we'll start the initial phases of construction next year.

不，我們肯定是在墨西哥建工廠。我們對此感覺非常好。我們花了很多精力去尋找不同的地點，我們對那個地點感覺非常好，我們打算在那裡建造一家工廠。這將會很棒。問題其實只是時間問題之一。這將打破利息方面的記錄。只是利率必須下降。就像，如果利率持續上升，你的承受能力就會從根本上降低。這和提高汽車的價格是一樣的。所以我只是不知道——如果你能告訴我利率是多少，我就能告訴你我們什麼時候該建造工廠。我們要建造它。我的意思是，我們認為我們將在明年開始初始階段的建設。

But I am still somewhat scarred by 2009 when General Motors and Chrysler went bankrupt. So -- while that's now 14 years ago, it's -- that is seared into my mind with a branding iron because kind of Tesla was just hanging on by a thread during that entire time and with -- I mean we closed a financing round 2008 at 6 p.m. December 24, Christmas Eve. And if we had not closed that financing round, we would have bounced payroll 2 days after Christmas. So we actually closed that round at the last hour, at the last day that it was possible. Stressful, to say the least, and then barely made it through 2009. So I'm like I want to just -- I don't want to be going at top speed into uncertainty. A lot of wars going on in the world obviously as well, so...

但 2009 年通用汽車和克萊斯勒破產時，我仍然有點傷痕累累。所以，雖然現在已經是14 年前的事了，但這件事已經烙印在我的腦海裡了，因為特斯拉在那段時間一直命懸一線，我的意思是我們在2008 年完成了輪融資下午 6 點12月24日，平安夜。如果我們沒有完成該輪融資，我們就會在聖誕節後兩天取消工資。所以我們實際上在最後一個小時、在可能的最後一天結束了這一輪。至少可以說，壓力很大，然後勉強撐過了 2009 年。所以我想——我不想以最快的速度陷入不確定性。世界上顯然也發生了很多戰爭，所以......

And we have room here, like in Giga Texas. You said we still have room in this building. It's not full with Cybertruck and the line. There's plenty of growth opportunities still to have inside the building where our team already is.

我們這裡有空間，就像在德州的千兆區一樣。你說我們這棟樓還有房間。 Cyber​​truck 和生產線還沒滿。我們團隊所在的大樓內仍有許多發展機會。

We also have 2,000 acres here.

我們這裡還有2000英畝的土地。

There's also one for...

還有一個是為了...

We're actually only occupying a tiny corner of the land that we own. So we could technically do all the scaling just here. So I mean personnel is our biggest challenge and that the greater Austin area only has -- generously, the greater Austin area only has 2 million people. So people are moving here and they're willing to move here, but there is somewhat of a housing crisis. They got to live somewhere, so yes.

我們實際上只佔據了我們擁有的土地的一小部分。所以從技術上來說我們可以在這裡完成所有的縮放。所以我的意思是，人員是我們最大的挑戰，而大奧斯汀地區只有——慷慨的是，大奧斯汀地區只有 200 萬人。因此，人們正在搬到這裡，他們也願意搬到這裡，但有一定程度的住房危機。他們必須住在某個地方，所以是的。

So I don't know, I mean I'm just curious -- like I just -- I'm not saying things will be bad. I'm just saying they might be. And I think -- like, Tesla is an incredibly capable ship, but we need to make sure like as -- if the macroeconomic conditions are stormy, even the best ship is still going to have tough times. The weaker ships will sink. We're not going to sink. But even a great ship in a storm has challenges. Now that storm will apply to everyone, not just us and not just the auto industry. It will apply to everyone, I think, apart from necessary sort of staples like food and stuff. But -- so I just -- I don't know. If interest rates start coming down, we will accelerate.

所以我不知道，我的意思是我只是好奇——就像我一樣——我並不是說事情會很糟糕。我只是說他們可能是。我認為，特斯拉是一艘能力極強的船，但我們需要確保，如果宏觀經濟條件惡劣，即使是最好的船也將面臨困難時期。較弱的船隻將會沉沒。我們不會沉沒。但即使是暴風雨中的巨輪也會面臨挑戰。現在這場風暴將適用於每個人，而不僅僅是我們，也不僅僅是汽車產業。我認為，除了食物之類的必需品之外，它適用於每個人。但是——所以我只是——我不知道。如果利率開始下降，我們就會加速。

All right.

好的。

If anybody's got any good guesses on this, I'd love to be less wrong. And I apologize if I'm perhaps more paranoid than I should be because that might also be the case because I am -- I have PTSD from 2009, big time. And 2017 through '19 were no picnic either. That was very tough going. So the auto industry is also somewhat cyclic because people tend to hesitate to buy a new car and if there's uncertainty in the economy. So product companies do very well in good economic times and they don't do as well in tough economic times. So it's just -- whereas if somebody is selling bread, then I think people will still need to eat bread. Yes, we need bread. We need it for all of time. But a new car, you don't have to have right this minute.

如果有人對此有任何好的猜測，我很樂意少錯。如果我可能比我應該的更偏執，我很抱歉，因為情況也可能是這樣，因為我從 2009 年就患有創傷後壓力症候群 (PTSD)。 2017 年到 19 年也不是輕鬆的一年。那是非常艱難的事。因此，汽車產業也有一定的周期性，因為人們往往會猶豫是否要購買新車以及經濟是否存在不確定性。因此，產品公司在經濟景氣時期表現良好，但在經濟困難時期卻表現不佳。所以，如果有人賣麵包，那麼我認為人們仍然需要吃麵包。是的，我們需要麵包。我們一直需要它。但一輛新車，你不必現在就擁有。

Especially if there are wars going on and then that impacts your sentiment.

尤其是當戰爭正在進行時，這會影響你的情緒。

Yes. I mean people are reading about wars all over the world at this -- buying a new car tends to not be front of mind.

是的。我的意思是，人們正在閱讀有關世界各地戰爭的文章——購買一輛新車往往不會成為首要考慮因素。

All right. Unfortunately, that's all the time we have today. Thank you very much for all of your good questions, and we'll see you again in 3 months. Thank you very much.

好的。不幸的是，我們今天就只有這些時間了。非常感謝您提出的所有好問題，我們將在 3 個月後再次見到您。非常感謝。