博通 (AVGO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Broadcom Inc's, fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2024 financial results conference call.

歡迎參加 Broadcom Inc 第四季和 2024 財年財務業績電話會議。

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Ji Yoo, Head of Investor Relations of Broadcom Inc.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Broadcom Inc. 投資者關係主管 Ji Yoo 進行開場發言和介紹。

Thank you, Cherie, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，切麗，大家下午好。

Joining me on today's call are Hock Tan, President and CEO; Kirsten Spears, Chief Financial Officer; and Charlie Kawwas, President, Semiconductor Solutions Group.

與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Hock Tan；克斯汀‧斯皮爾斯，財務長；以及半導體解決方案集團總裁 Charlie Kawwas。

Broadcom distributed a press release and financial tables after the market closed describing our financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024.

Broadcom 在收盤後發布了一份新聞稿和財務表格，描述了我們第四季和 2024 財年的財務表現。

If you did not receive a copy, you may obtain the information from the Investors section of Broadcom's website at broadcom.com. This conference call is being webcast live, and an audio replay of the conference call can be accessed for one year through the Investors section of Broadcom's website.

如果您沒有收到副本，您可以從 Broadcom 網站 Broadcom.com 的投資者部分獲取資訊。本次電話會議正在進行網路直播，並且可以透過 Broadcom 網站的投資者部分收聽為期一年的電話會議音訊重播。

During the prepared comments, Hock and Kirsten will be providing details of our fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2024 results, guidance for our first quarter of fiscal year 2025 as well as commentary regarding the business environment.

在準備好的評論中，Hock 和 Kirsten 將提供我們第四季度和 2024 財年業績的詳細資訊、2025 財年第一季的指導以及有關商業環境的評論。

We'll take questions after the end of our prepared comments.

我們將在準備好的評論結束後回答問題。

Please refer to our press release today and our recent filings with the SEC for information on the specific risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made on this call.

請參閱我們今天的新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性聲明存在重大差異的具體風險因素的資訊。

In addition to US GAAP reporting, Broadcom reports certain financial measures on a non-GAAP basis.

除了美國公認會計原則報告外，博通還根據非公認會計原則報告某些財務指標。

A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is included in the tables attached to today's press release.

今天新聞稿所附的表格中包含了公認會計原則和非公認會計原則措施之間的調節。

Comments made during today's call will primarily refer to our non-GAAP financial results.

在今天的電話會議中發表的評論將主要涉及我們的非公認會計準則財務表現。

I will now turn the call over to Hock.

我現在將把電話轉給霍克。

Thank you, Ji.

謝謝你，吉。

And thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

感謝大家今天加入我們。

Well, this has been a transformative year for Broadcom.

對博通來說，今年是改變的一年。

A fiscal year 2024 consolidated revenue grew 44% year over year to a record $51.6 billion.

2024 財年合併營收年增 44%，達到創紀錄的 516 億美元。

Now excluding VMWare, our revenue grew over 9% organically.

現在，不包括 VMWare，我們的收入有機增長超過 9%。

So fiscal '24 operating profits, excluding transition costs grew 42% year over year.

因此，24 財年的營業利潤（不包括轉型成本）較去年同期成長了 42%。

And we'll return a record $22 billion in cash to our shareholders up 45% year on year through dividends, buyback, and eliminations.

我們將透過股息、回購和抵銷，向股東返還創紀錄的 220 億美元現金，較去年同期成長 45%。

There were two significant drivers of this transformation this year.

今年這項轉變有兩個重要驅動因素。

First, we closed the acquisition of VMWare in the early weeks of fiscal '24 and then focused VMWare on its technology leadership in data center virtualization.

首先，我們在 24 財年的前幾週完成了對 VMWare 的收購，然後重點關注 VMWare 在資料中心虛擬化方面的技術領先地位。

The integration of VMWare is largely complete.

VMWare 的整合已基本完成。

Revenue is on a growth trajectory, and operating margin reached 70% exiting 2024.

營收處於成長軌道，2024 年營業利潤率達 70%。

We are well on the path to delivering incremental adjusted EBITDA at a level that significantly exceeds the $8.5 billion we communicated when we announced the deal.

我們正在穩步實現增量調整後 EBITDA，其水準將大大超過我們宣布交易時所傳達的 85 億美元。

We are planning to achieve this much earlier than our initial target of three years.

我們計劃比最初的三年目標更早實現這一目標。

The second driver in 2024 was AI.

2024 年的第二個驅動力是人工智慧。

Our AI revenue, which came from strength in custom AI accelerators or XPUs and networking, grew 220% from $3.8 billion in fiscal '23 to $12.2 billion in fiscal '24 and represented 41% of our semiconductor revenue.

我們的人工智慧收入來自客製化人工智慧加速器或 XPU 和網路的實力，成長了 220%，從 23 財年的 38 億美元成長到 24 財年的 122 億美元，占我們半導體收入的 41%。

This drove semiconductor revenue up to a record $30.1 billion during the year.

這使得 2017 年半導體收入達到創紀錄的 301 億美元。

Okay.

好的。

Now let's move on to the fourth quarter and give you more color.

現在讓我們進入第四季度，給你更多的色彩。

Consolidated net revenue of $14.1 billion was up 51% year on year.

綜合淨收入達 141 億美元，年增 51%。

Excluding VMWare, organic growth was 11%, and operating profit of $8.8 billion was up 53% year on year.

不計VMWare，有機成長11%，營業利潤88億美元，較去年成長53%。

For the details on infrastructure software in Q4, this infrastructure software segment revenue was $5.8 billion, up 196% year on year, flat sequentially, even as multiple deals slip over into Q1.

至於第四季度基礎設施軟體的詳細信息，該基礎設施軟體部門的收入為 58 億美元，同比增長 196%，環比持平，儘管多筆交易滑入第一季。

In VMWare, we booked 21 million total CPU [calls] in a quarter versus 19 million a quarter ago.

在 VMWare 中，我們在一個季度預訂了 2,100 萬次 CPU [呼叫]，而上一季為 1,900 萬次。

Of these, about 70% represent the VMWare Cloud Foundation of VCF, the full software stack virtualizing the entire data center.

其中，約 70% 代表 VCF 的 VMWare Cloud Foundation，這是虛擬化整個資料中心的完整軟體堆疊。

And this translated into annualized booking value or ABV, as we call it, of $2.7 billion for VMWare in Q4, up from $2.5 billion in Q3.

這轉化為 VMWare 在第四季度的年化預訂價值（ABV）為 27 億美元，高於第三季的 25 億美元。

Since closing the acquisition just over a year ago, we signed up over 4,500 of our largest 10,000 customers for VCF, VCF-enabled customers that deploy private cloud environments on-prem as an alternative to running their applications in the public cloud.

自從一年多前完成收購以來，我們最大的 10,000 家客戶中的 4,500 多家簽約了 VCF，支援 VCF 的客戶在本地部署私有雲環境，作為在公有雲中運行應用程式的替代方案。

And in doing all this, we continue to drive down spending in VMWare.

在做這一切的過程中，我們繼續減少 VMWare 的支出。

We brought spending down to $1.2 billion in Q4 down from $1.3 billion in Q3.

我們將第四季的支出從第三季的 13 億美元降至 12 億美元。

By reference, VMWare's spending was averaging over $2.4 billion per quarter prior to the acquisition with operating margin less than 30%.

作為參考，VMWare 在收購之前平均每季支出超過 24 億美元，營業利潤率不到 30%。

Moving on to Q1 outlook for infrastructure software, we expect Q1 revenue to grow to $6.5 billion, up 11% sequentially and 41% up year on year.

接下來是基礎設施軟體第一季的展望，我們預計第一季營收將成長至 65 億美元，季增 11%，年增 41%。

For VMWare, ABV is expected to exceed $3 billion compared to $2.7 billion in the preceding quarter.

對於 VMWare，ABV 預計將超過 30 億美元，而上一季為 27 億美元。

Turning to semiconductors, (technical difficulty) revenue driven by our Tomahawk and Jericho shipments globally.

轉向半導體，（技術難度）收入由我們的戰斧和傑里科全球出貨量推動。

In Q1, we expect the momentum in AI connectivity to be as strong as more hyperscalers deploy Jericho3-AI in their fabrics.

在第一季度，隨著越來越多的超大規模企業在其結構中部署 Jericho3-AI，我們預計 AI 連接的勢頭將會強勁。

Our next-generation XPUs are in 3 nanometers and will be the first of its coming to market in that process node.

我們的下一代 XPU 採用 3 奈米工藝，將是此工藝節點中首款上市的產品。

We are on track for volume shipment at our hyperscale customers in the second half of fiscal '25.

我們預計在 25 財年下半年向超大規模客戶批量出貨。

Turning on to server storage, from its bottom six months ago, Q4 server storage connectivity revenue has recovered some 20% to $992 million.

轉向伺服器存儲，第四季度伺服器儲存連接收入從六個月前的最低點開始恢復了約 20%，達到 9.92 億美元。

And in Q4, we expect server storage revenue to continue to grow.

在第四季度，我們預計伺服器儲存收入將繼續成長。

Turning to wireless, as we expected, seasonal launch by our North American customer drove Q4 wireless revenue to $2.2 billion, up 30% sequentially.

轉向無線，正如我們預期的那樣，北美客戶的季節性推出將第四季度的無線收入推至 22 億美元，比上一季成長 30%。

This was up 7% year on year because of higher content.

由於內容增加，這一數字同比增長了 7%。

We continue to be very engaged with this customer in multi-year road maps across various technologies we have leadership in, including RF, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, sensing and touch.

我們繼續與該客戶密切合作，制定我們領先的各種技術的多年路線圖，包括射頻、Wi-Fi、藍牙、感測和觸控。

In Q1, reflecting seasonality, we expect wireless to be down sequentially but still be flat year on year.

在第一季度，考慮到季節性因素，我們預計無線業務將環比下降，但同比仍持平。

In Q4, broadband reach bottom at $465 million, down 51% year on year.

第四季寬頻觸底至 4.65 億美元，較去年同期下降 51%。

We've seen significant orders across multiple service providers during this quarter.

本季我們已經看到多個服務提供者的大量訂單。

And reflecting this trend, we now expect broadband to show recovery beginning in Q1.

為了反映這一趨勢，我們現在預計寬頻將在第一季開始復甦。

Finally, on to industrial, which only represents 1% of the total revenues measured on resales, Q4 industrial sales of $173 million declined 27% year on year.

最後，工業領域僅佔轉售總收入的 1%，第四季工業銷售額為 1.73 億美元，較去年同期下降 27%。

We only expect a recovery in the second half 2025.

我們預計 2025 年下半年才會復甦。

Before I sum up and provide you Q1 fiscal '25 guidance, let me outline a longer-term perspective on how we see our semiconductor business evolving over the next three years.

在我總結並向您提供 25 年第一季財報指引之前，讓我先概述一下我們如何看待未來三年半導體業務發展的長期視角。

On the broad portfolio of non-AI semiconductors with its multiple end markets, we saw a cyclical bottom in fiscal '24 at $17.8 billion.

在具有多個終端市場的廣泛非人工智慧半導體投資組合中，我們看到 24 財年的週期性底部為 178 億美元。

We expect a recovery from this level at the industry's historical growth rate of mid-single-digits.

我們預計該行業將以中個位數的歷史成長率從這一水平復甦。

In sharp contrast, we see our opportunity over the next three years in AI as massive.

與此形成鮮明對比的是，我們認為未來三年人工智慧領域的機會是巨大的。

Specific hyperscalers have begun their respective journeys to develop their own custom AI accelerators or XPUs as well as network these XPUS with open and scalable Ethernet connectivity.

特定的超大規模企業已經開始各自的旅程，開發自己的客製化人工智慧加速器或 XPU，並透過開放且可擴展的乙太網路連接將這些 XPUS 聯網。

For each of them, this represents a multi-year not a quarter-to-quarter journey.

對他們每個人來說，這代表著一個多年的旅程，而不是一個季度到一個季度的旅程。

As you know, we currently have three hyperscale customers, who have developed their own multi-generational AI XPU road map to be to be deployed at varying rates over the next three years.

如您所知，我們目前擁有三個超大規模客戶，他們已經開發了自己的多代 AI XPU 路線圖，並將在未來三年內以不同的速度部署。

In 2027, we believe each of them plans to deploy 1 million XPU clusters across a single fabric.

到 2027 年，我們相信他們每個人都計劃在單一結構上部署 100 萬個 XPU 叢集。

We expect this to represent in AI revenue serviceable addressable market, or SAM, for XPUS and network in the range of $60 billion to $90 billion in fiscal 2027 alone.

我們預計光是 2027 財年，XPUS 和網路的人工智慧可服務可尋址市場 (SAM) 收入就將達到 600 億至 900 億美元。

We are very well positioned to achieve a leading market share in this opportunity and expect this will drive a strong ramp from our 2024 AI revenue base of $12.2 billion.

我們完全有能力抓住這一機遇，獲得領先的市場份額，並預計這將推動我們 2024 年 122 億美元的人工智慧收入基礎強勁成長。

Keep in mind, though, this will not be a linear ramp -- will show quarterly variability.

但請記住，這不會是線性斜坡——將顯示季度變化。

To compound this, we have been selected by two additional hyperscalers and are in advanced development for their own next-generation AI XPUs.

更重要的是，我們已被另外兩家超大規模供應商選中，並且正在為他們自己的下一代 AI XPU 進行高級開發。

We have line of sight to develop these prospects into revenue-generating customers before 2027 and could, therefore, expand this SAM significantly.

我們的目標是在 2027 年之前將這些潛在客戶發展為創收客戶，因此可以顯著擴展此 SAM。

So the reality going forward for this company is that the AI semiconductor business will rapidly outgrow the non-AI semiconductor business.

因此，該公司未來的現實是人工智慧半導體業務將迅速超越非人工智慧半導體業務。

Recognizing this, we will now shift to guiding our semiconductor business by AI and non-AI revenue segments.

認識到這一點，我們現在將轉向透過人工智慧和非人工智慧收入領域來指導我們的半導體業務。

So summarizing Q4, semiconductor revenue of $8.2 billion grew 12% year on year and 13% sequentially.

總結第四季度，半導體營收為 82 億美元，年增 12%，季增 13%。

Q4 AI revenue grew a strong 150% year on year to $3.7 billion. Non-AI

第四季人工智慧營收年增 150% 至 37 億美元。非人工智慧

semiconductor revenue declined by 23% year on year to $4.5 billion but still a 10% recovery from the bottom of six months ago.

半導體收入年減 23% 至 45 億美元，但仍較六個月前的谷底恢復 10%。

Now moving on to our outlook for Q1, we expect semiconductor revenue to grow approximately 10% year on year to $8.1 billion. AI

現在展望第一季度，我們預計半導體營收將年增約 10%，達到 81 億美元。人工智慧

demand remains strong, and we expect AI revenue to grow 65% year on year to $3.8 billion.

需求依然強勁，我們預計 AI 營收將年增 65%，達到 38 億美元。

We expect non-AI semiconductor revenue to be down about mid-teens percent year on year.

我們預計非人工智慧半導體收入將年減約百分之十左右。

And in total, summing this all up, we're guiding consolidated Q1 revenue to be approximately $14.6 billion up 22% year on year.

總而言之，我們預計第一季合併收入約為 146 億美元，年增 22%。

And we expect this will drive Q1 adjusted EBITDA to approximately 66% of revenue.

我們預計這將推動第一季調整後 EBITDA 達到營收的約 66%。

With that, let me turn this call over to Kirsten.

現在，讓我把這通電話轉給克爾斯滕。

Thank you, Hock.

謝謝你，霍克。

Let me now provide additional detail on our Q4 financial performance.

現在讓我提供有關我們第四季度財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Consolidated revenue was $14.1 billion for the quarter, up 51% from a year ago.

該季度綜合營收為 141 億美元，比去年同期成長 51%。

Excluding the contribution from VMware, Q4 revenue increased 11% year on year.

剔除VMware的貢獻，第四季營收年增11%。

Gross margins were 76.9% of revenue in the quarter, up 260 basis points from the year-ago quarter.

該季度毛利率佔營收的 76.9%，比去年同期成長 260 個基點。

R&D was $1.4 billion, and consolidated operating expenses were $2 billion, up year on year primarily due to the acquisition and consolidation of VMware.

研發費用為 14 億美元，綜合營運費用為 20 億美元，年成長主要是由於收購和整合 VMware。

Q4 operating income was $8.8 billion and was up 53% from a year ago, with operating margin at 63% of revenue.

第四季營業收入為 88 億美元，年增 53%，營業利益率為營收的 63%。

Adjusted EBITDA was $9.1 billion or 65% of revenue.

調整後 EBITDA 為 91 億美元，佔營收的 65%。

This figure excludes $156 million of depreciation.

該數字不包括 1.56 億美元的折舊。

Now a review of the P&L for our two segments, starting with semiconductors.

現在回顧我們兩個部門的損益表，從半導體開始。

Revenue for our semiconductor solutions segment was $8.2 billion and represented 59% of total revenue in the quarter.

我們的半導體解決方案部門的收入為 82 億美元，佔本季總收入的 59%。

This was up 12% year on year.

這一數字年增 12%。

Gross margins for our semiconductor solutions segment were approximately 67%, down 220 basis points year on year, driven primarily by a higher mix of AI XPUs.

我們的半導體解決方案部門的毛利率約為 67%，較去年同期下降 220 個基點，這主要是由於 AI XPU 組合的增加所致。

Operating expenses increased 11% year on year to $914 million on increased investment in R&D, resulting in semiconductor operating margins of 56%.

由於研發投資增加，營運費用年增 11% 至 9.14 億美元，導致半導體營運利潤率達到 56%。

Now moving on to infrastructure software.

現在轉向基礎設施軟體。

Revenue for infrastructure software was $5.8 billion, up 196% year on year primarily due to the contribution of VMware and represented 41% of revenue.

基礎設施軟體營收為58億美元，年增196%，主要得益於VMware的貢獻，佔營收的41%。

Gross margins for infrastructure software were 91% in the quarter.

該季度基礎設施軟體的毛利率為 91%。

And operating expenses were $1.1 billion in the quarter, resulting in infrastructure software operating margin of 72%.

該季度營運費用為 11 億美元，基礎設施軟體營運利潤率為 72%。

Excluding transition costs, operating margin was 73%.

不計轉型成本，營業利益率為 73%。

Moving on to cash flow.

轉向現金流。

Free cash flow in the quarter was $5.5 billion and represented 39% of revenues.

本季自由現金流為 55 億美元，佔營收的 39%。

Excluding cash used for restructuring and integration of $506 million, free cash flows of $6 billion were up 22% year on year and represented 43% of revenue.

不包括用於重組和整合的現金 5.06 億美元，自由現金流為 60 億美元，年增 22%，佔營收的 43%。

Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue has declined from the same quarter a year ago due to higher cash interest expense from debt related to the VMware acquisition, higher cash taxes due to a higher mix of US taxable income, the continued delay in the reenactment of Section 174, and recent proposed regulations on corporate AMT.

自由現金流佔收入的百分比較去年同期有所下降，原因是與 VMware 收購相關的債務帶來的現金利息支出增加、美國應稅收入組合增加導致現金稅增加、重新制定的持續延遲第174 條的規定，以及最近提出的有關企業AMT 的法規。

We spent $122 million on capital expenditures.

我們在資本支出上花了 1.22 億美元。

Days sales outstanding were 29 days in the fourth quarter compared to 31 days a year ago.

第四季應收帳款天數為 29 天，去年同期為 31 天。

We ended the fourth quarter with inventory of $1.8 billion, down 7% sequentially.

在第四季結束時，我們的庫存為 18 億美元，比上一季下降 7%。

We continue to remain disciplined on how we manage inventory across the ecosystem.

我們繼續嚴格管理整個生態系統的庫存。

We ended the fourth quarter with $9.3 billion of cash and $69.8 billion of gross principal debt.

截至第四季末，我們的現金為 93 億美元，本金總額為 698 億美元。

During the quarter, we replaced $5 billion of floating rate debt with new senior notes.

本季度，我們用新的優先票據取代了 50 億美元的浮動利率債務。

We used cash on hand to pay a mix of senior notes, which came due in Q4, and additional floating rate debt, reducing debt by $2.5 billion.

我們使用手頭現金支付了第四季度到期的優先票據和額外的浮動利率債務，從而減少了 25 億美元的債務。

Following these actions, the weighted average coupon rate and years to maturity of our $56 billion in fixed rate debt is 3.7% and 7.6 years, respectively.

採取這些行動後，我們 560 億美元固定利率債務的加權平均票面利率和到期年限分別為 3.7% 和 7.6 年。

The weighted average coupon rate and years to maturity of our $14 billion in floating rate debt is 5.9% and 3.2 years, respectively.

我們 140 億美元浮動利率債務的加權平均票面利率和到期年限分別為 5.9% 和 3.2 年。

We expect to repay approximately $495 million of fixed rate senior notes coming due in Q1.

我們預計將償還第一季到期的約 4.95 億美元固定利率優先票據。

Now let me recap our financial performance for fiscal year 2024.

現在讓我回顧一下我們 2024 財年的財務表現。

Our revenue hit a record $51.6 billion, growing 44% year on year including VMware, and 9% organically, excluding VMware.

我們的營收達到創紀錄的 516 億美元，年增 44%（包括 VMware），有機成長 9%（不包括 VMware）。

Semiconductor revenue was $30.1 billion, up 7% year over year.

半導體營收為 301 億美元，年增 7%。

Infrastructure software revenue was $21.5 billion, up 181% year on year and up [90%] year on year, excluding VMware.

基礎設施軟體營收為 215 億美元，較去年同期成長 181%，較去年同期成長 [90%]，不包括 VMware。

Fiscal 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $31.9 billion and represented 62% of revenue.

2024 財年調整後 EBITDA 為 319 億美元，佔營收的 62%。

Free cash flow grew 10% year on year to $19.4 billion and up 22% year on year to $21.9 billion, excluding restructuring and integration costs.

自由現金流年增 10% 至 194 億美元，年增 22% 至 219 億美元（不包括重組和整合成本）。

Turning to capital allocation.

轉向資本配置。

For fiscal 2024, we spent $22.2 billion, consisting of $9.8 billion in the form of cash dividends and $12.4 billion in share repurchases and eliminations.

2024 財年，我們支出了 222 億美元，其中 98 億美元用於現金股息，124 億美元用於股票回購和註銷。

Aligned with our ability to generate increased cash flows in the preceding year and off of a larger share count base from the acquisition of VMware, we are announcing an increase in our quarterly common stock cash dividend in Q1 fiscal 2025 to $0.59 per share on a split-adjusted basis, an increase of 11% from the prior quarter.

與我們在上一年產生更多現金流的能力以及收購VMware 帶來的更大股數基礎相一致，我們宣布將2025 財年第一季的季度普通股現金股利分拆後增加至每股0.59在美元-調整後的基礎上，較上一季成長11%。

We intend to maintain this target quarterly dividend throughout fiscal '25, subject to quarterly Board approval.

我們打算在整個 25 財年維持這一目標季度股息，但須經董事會季度批准。

This implies that our fiscal 2025 annual common stock dividend to be a record $2.36 per share on a split-adjusted basis, an increase of 12% year on year.

這意味著我們的 2025 財年年度普通股股利在分割調整後將達到創紀錄的每股 2.36 美元，年增 12%。

I would like to highlight that this represents the 14th consecutive increase in annual dividends since we initiated dividends in fiscal 2011.

我想強調的是，這是自 2011 財年開始派息以來年度股息連續 14 次增加。

Now moving on to guidance.

現在繼續指導。

From a year-on-year comparable basis, keep in mind that Q1 of fiscal '24 was a 14-week quarter and Q1 of fiscal '25 is a 13-week quarter.

從同比可比的角度來看，請記住，24 財年第一季是一個為期 14 週的季度，而 25 財年第一季是一個為期 13 週的季度。

As we are now past one year following the close of the VMware acquisition, starting in Q1 of fiscal 2025, we will no longer break out VMware revenue and costs on a standalone basis.

由於從 2025 財年第一季開始，VMware 收購完成已過去一年，我們將不再單獨細分 VMware 收入和成本。

We will continue to report infrastructure software segment revenue and profitability, which includes Brocade Fibre Channel, SAN, CA mainframe, enterprise security, and VMware.

我們將繼續報告基礎設施軟體部門的收入和獲利能力，其中包括博科光纖通道、SAN、CA 大型主機、企業安全和 VMware。

Our guidance for Q1 is for consolidated revenue of $14.6 billion, with semiconductor revenue of $8.1 billion, up approximately 10% year on year, and infrastructure software revenue of $6.5 billion, up 41% year on year.

我們對第一季的指引是綜合營收為 146 億美元，其中半導體營收為 81 億美元，年成長約 10%，基礎設施軟體營收為 65 億美元，年成長 41%。

We expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA to be a record 66%, and Q1 non-GAAP diluted share count to be, approximately, 4.9 billion shares.

我們預計第一季調整後 EBITDA 將達到創紀錄的 66%，第一季非 GAAP 攤薄後股數將約為 49 億股。

For modeling purposes, we expect Q1 consolidated gross margins to be up 100 basis points sequentially on the higher revenue mix of infrastructure software and product mix within semiconductors.

出於建模目的，我們預計第一季綜合毛利率將連續成長 100 個基點，因為基礎設施軟體和半導體產品組合的收入組合更高。

Note that consolidated gross margins through the year will be impacted by the revenue mix of infrastructure software and semiconductors and product mix within semiconductors.

請注意，全年綜合毛利率將受到基礎設施軟體和半導體的收入組合以及半導體體內的產品組合的影響。

We expect the non-GAAP tax rate in fiscal year 2025 to be approximately 14.5% as tax deductions related to interest expense are reduced as we pay down and refinance debt under more favorable interest terms.

我們預計 2025 財年的非公認會計準則稅率約為 14.5%，因為隨著我們在更優惠的利率條件下償還債務和再融資，與利息費用相關的稅收減免會減少。

GAAP net income and cash flows in Q1 will be impacted by higher taxes, restructuring and integration-related cash costs due to the VMware acquisition.

第一季的 GAAP 淨利潤和現金流量將受到因收購 VMware 而導致的更高稅收、重組和整合相關現金成本的影響。

That concludes my prepared remarks.

我準備好的發言就到此結束。

Operator, please open up the call for questions.

接線員，請撥打電話詢問問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Blayne Curtis, Jefferies.

布萊恩·柯蒂斯，杰弗里斯。

Hey.

嘿。

Thanks so much for taking my question.

非常感謝您提出我的問題。

It's kind of a clarification and a question.

這是一種澄清和一個問題。

I thought I heard you say that AI networking revenue was 76% of networking.

我想我聽到你說 AI 網路收入佔網路收入的 76%。

I just couldn't get that math right.

我只是無法正確地計算數學。

But maybe the broader question is you've seen growth off that low point in April in AI.

但也許更廣泛的問題是，您已經看到人工智慧領域的成長已脫離 4 月的低點。

Can you talk about ASIC strength versus networking, the trends you're seeing in October into January?

您能談談 ASIC 強度與網路的比較以及您在 10 月到 1 月看到的趨勢嗎？

Well, that's a very interesting question.

嗯，這是一個非常有趣的問題。

And both were growing not at the same rates, but we've been shipping, I believe, a lot more of network -- AI connectivity networking components in the back half of this year compared to the first half of this fiscal year.

兩者的成長速度並不相同，但我相信，與本財年上半年相比，我們在今年下半年出貨了更多的網路——人工智慧連接網路組件。

And we suspect a lot of that will continue in the first half of next fiscal year before more XPUs.

我們懷疑，在更多 XPU 出現之前，其中大部分將在下一財年上半年繼續進行。

Naturally, as I indicated, more on the new generation of 3 nanometer XPUs will start ramping very much in the back half of '25.

當然，正如我所指出的，新一代 3 奈米 XPU 的更多內容將在 25 年下半年開始大幅成長。

C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

C.J.繆斯，坎托·費茲傑拉。

Yeah.

是的。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thank you for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

Hock, I wanted to hit on the $60 billion to $90 billion revenue range for fiscal '27 for AI.

Hock，我希望 27 財年人工智慧的營收範圍達到 600 億至 900 億美元。

I was hoping you could speak to the mix you see there between XPU and networking.

我希望您能談談您所看到的 XPU 和網路之間的混合。

And within that construct, are you including all the customers that you see out there in hyperscale and vertically integrated consumers?

在這個結構中，您是否包括了您在超大規模和垂直整合的消費者中看到的所有客戶？

Or any sort of help in terms of what you're including in that potential mix would be very helpful.

或者任何有關您在潛在組合中包含的內容的幫助都會非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, thanks for the question.

嗯，謝謝你的提問。

Give me an opportunity here to clarify and be very specific.

請給我一個機會來澄清並非常具體。

First, on the total dollars, this is not revenue, by the way.

首先，順便說一句，就總美元而言，這不是收入。

It's the revenue opportunity for us.

這對我們來說是創造收入的機會。

It's what I call serviceable addressable market, as we all term SAM -- not TAM, SAM.

這就是我所說的可服務可尋址市場，我們都稱之為 SAM，而不是 TAM、SAM。

And it's serviceable addressable market for three of our hyperscale customers.

對於我們的三個超大規模客戶來說，這是一個可用的目標市場。

That's it.

就是這樣。

It's a very narrow serviceable addressable market we're talking about.

我們正在談論的是一個非常狹窄的可服務的潛在市場。

And we're talking about XPUs and AI connectivity at that scale.

我們正在談論這種規模的 XPU 和人工智慧連接。

And AI connectivity could probably estimate to run approximately close to 15% to 20% of the dollar content.

據估計，人工智慧連線可能佔美元內容的大約 15% 到 20%。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

喬摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I wonder if you could talk to the XPU market.

我想知道您能否談談 XPU 市場。

How are your customers reacting to some of the rack scale products from your -- the merchant competitor from NVIDIA?

您的客戶對您（來自 NVIDIA 的商業競爭對手）的一些機架級產品有何反應？

How do they get the connectivity to multiple XPUs inside the rack?

他們如何連接到機架內的多個 XPU？

Just how does that present a competitive dynamic for you?

這對您來說如何呈現競爭動力？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, everybody's trying to figure out when you start with -- when you connect the cluster on a single fabric of 10,000 XPUs or GPUs, say GPU, and scale it up to 100,000 and on to 500,000 and 1 million is a whole new game in terms of architecture.

好吧，每個人都在試圖弄清楚何時開始- 當您將叢集連接到由10,000 個XPU 或GPU（例如GPU）組成的單一結構上，並將其擴展到100,000 個，再擴展到500,000 個時，100 萬個是一個全新的遊戲架構面。

And so you guys hear the differences of when you do these racks, you have what it calls scale up.

所以你們聽到了當你們做這些機架時的差異，你們有所謂的擴大規模。

And then you have joining rack to rack, because you have no choice.

然後你必須將機架連接到機架，因為你別無選擇。

You can't get to 1 million or for that matter 100,000 otherwise.

否則你不可能達到 100 萬或 10 萬。

You call it scale out.

你稱之為橫向擴展。

And that's a continuing evolving architecture.

這是一個持續發展的架構。

But I think each of these hyperscale customers of ours have, at this point, kind of figured out how to get there.

但我認為，目前我們的每位超大規模客戶都已經知道如何實現這一目標。

Hence, a road map that will keep growing from 100,000 to 1 million XPU cluster on pretty much similar architecture basis over the next three, four years.

因此，路線圖將在未來三、四年內在非常相似的架構基礎上不斷從 10 萬個 XPU 叢集成長到 100 萬個。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Hock, I know the team has been putting out an AI guide for fiscal '25, and I appreciate the multi-year SAM opportunity outlook.

Hock，我知道團隊已經推出了 25 財年的人工智慧指南，我很欣賞多年 SAM 機會前景。

But for this year, can we look at what your customers on the networking and custom accelerators are thinking about from a data center CapEx spending perspective?

但今年，我們能否從資料中心資本支出的角度了解您的網路和客製化加速器客戶的想法？

So for example, our latest roll up is that the top four cloud and hyperscalers are going to grow their CapEx 35%, 40% in fiscal '25.

例如，我們最新的總結顯示，四大雲端和超大規模企業的資本支出將在 25 財年分別成長 35% 和 40%。

I would expect that your AI business would sort of closely mirror this trend, maybe even think about it as a base case when we think about Ethernet taking share from InfiniBand, ASICs growing faster than merchant GPUs.

我預計您的人工智慧業務將在某種程度上密切反映這一趨勢，甚至當我們考慮乙太網路從 InfiniBand 手中奪取份額時，甚至可以將其視為基本案例，ASIC 的成長速度快於商用 GPU。

Maybe the profile of your AI business can go even faster than the CapEx trends.

也許您的人工智慧業務的發展速度可能比資本支出趨勢更快。

Either way, plus or minus, is that how we should think about the growth in the AI business roughly in line with CapEx growth trends of your large cloud and hyperscale customers?

無論哪種方式，無論是正數還是負數，我們應該如何考慮人工智慧業務的成長與大型雲端和超大規模客戶的資本支出成長趨勢大致一致？

Harlan.

哈蘭.

No, it doesn't.

不，事實並非如此。

I think the hyperscalers tend to give you an overall CapEx numbers.

我認為超大規模企業往往會為您提供整體資本支出數據。

I'm not sure they really break out between what's AI and what's non-AI out there.

我不確定他們是否真的區分了人工智慧和非人工智慧。

And clearly, the spend in AI outstrips the spend in non-AI even on the CapEx.

顯然，即使在資本支出上，人工智慧的支出也超過了非人工智慧的支出。

And so no, I won't necessarily stop at that.

所以不，我不一定就此止步。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein.

史黛西·拉斯岡，伯恩斯坦。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I have a more tactical question.

我有一個更具戰術性的問題。

So you have software pushouts into Q1, which is elevating it.

因此，您將軟體推出到第一季度，這正在提升它。

Should we think about that -- those pushouts started rolling off as we get into Q2 and the back half of the year.

我們是否應該考慮這一點——當我們進入第二季度和今年下半年時，這些推出開始減少。

And what are the implications on the shape of software for the year as well as gross margins?

這對今年的軟體形態和毛利率有何影響？

Because I guess maybe in the back half, you'll have like software a little weaker versus Q2 as well as the XPU stronger.

因為我想也許在後半段，你會發現軟體比 Q2 稍弱，而 XPU 則更強。

So should we be thinking about the gross margin trajectory of the current elevated base kind of easing as we get in the back half?

那麼，當我們進入下半年時，我們是否應該考慮當前基數較高的寬鬆政策的毛利率軌跡？

So just anything you can tell us around the shape of the software around the pushouts and implications for revenues and gross margins.

因此，您可以告訴我們有關軟體的推出情況以及對收入和毛利率的影響的任何資訊。

Well, number one, it is a slips, and I think you're overthinking this whole project.

嗯，第一，這是一個失誤，我認為你對整個專案想太多了。

It's just a slip; pick it up and you see the differences between Q4 growth and Q1 re-acceleration.

這只是一個失誤；拿起它，您會看到第四季度成長和第一季重新加速之間的差異。

That's all it is.

僅此而已。

One

一

(multiple speakers)

（多個發言者）

I'm asking -- should Q2 be lower because you had pushout into Q1 is what I'm asking.

我問的是——第二季是否應該更低，因為我問的是你已經推出第一季了。

No, it doesn't.

不，事實並非如此。

Not Q2.

不是第二季。

No.

不。

I don't -- it won't have a material impact on the rest of the fiscal '25.

我不認為——這不會對 25 財年的剩餘時間產生重大影響。

Do you think software can kind of hold at these levels or even grow off of these $6.5 billion levels as we go through the year?

您認為軟體能否保持在這些水平，甚至在我們今年的成長中超越 65 億美元的水平？

I'm not giving you guidance, I might remind you, for the rest of the year.

我可能會提醒你，在今年剩下的時間裡我不會給你指導。

I'm just giving you guidance for Q1.

我只是為您提供第一季的指導。

But I'm just telling you your analysis is kind of defective.

但我只是告訴你，你的分析有點缺陷。

Benjamin Reitzes, Melius.

班傑明·雷茨，梅利厄斯。

Hey, thanks a lot and nice quarter there, Hock.

嘿，非常感謝，霍克，這裡過得很好。

I wanted to ask you about the $60 billion to $90 billion with a little more clarity.

我想更清楚地詢問您有關 600 億至 900 億美元的問題。

Previously, you've talked about a cumulative TAM from your customers.

之前，您已經討論過客戶的累積 TAM。

And that -- is this a run rate TAM or a cumulative TAM?

這是運行率 TAM 還是累積 TAM？

Kind of meaning, do we take the $12.2 billion, then add some growth for the next two years, and then think of it that way?

有點意思，我們是否要拿 122 億美元，然後在未來兩年增加一些成長，然後這樣想？

Or do we think of -- we take a share of like a $75 billion TAM and what your revenue yield is?

或者我們是否會考慮——我們分享了 750 億美元的 TAM，你們的收入是多少？

And then I just also was hoping you could clarify; you're not including those two new customers.

然後我也希望你能澄清一下；您不包括這兩個新客戶。

Do those two customers have the same $20 billion to $30 billion TAM each that the current three do?

這兩個客戶各自擁有與目前三個客戶相同的 200 億至 300 億美元 TAM 嗎？

Or do you think they're smaller or bigger?

或者你認為它們更大還是更小？

Sorry about the multi-part question there.

對於這個由多部分組成的問題，我深表歉意。

No.

不。

I think you asked -- the first part was very similar to an earlier question, but I'd be pleased to clarify.

我想你問過——第一部分與之前的問題非常相似，但我很樂意澄清。

No, the $60 billion to $90 billion, it's not -- we are not talking cumulative SAM or TAM anymore.

不，600 億到 900 億美元，我們不再談論累積 SAM 或 TAM。

We are putting for you a destination, so to speak, a milestone, which happens to be three years hence, 2027 -- possibly slip a bit, part of '28, but 2027.

我們正在為您設定一個目的地，可以說是一個里程碑，它恰好是三年後的 2027 年——可能會稍微推遲一點，是 28 年的一部分，但 2027 年。

We are seeing a destination 2027 or a milestone, the other one, where the deployment of those large-scale AI clusters, each on single fabric pretty much to run those large LLM models, will come to $60 billion to $90 billion in that one-year period.

我們看到一個目標是2027 年，或者說一個里程碑，另一個目標是部署那些大規模人工智慧集群，每個集群幾乎都在單一結構上運行那些大型LLM 模型，其中的規模將達到600 億至900億美元——年期間。

And collectively, all three of them.

總的來說，他們三個。

And to answer your second part, possibly, yes.

回答你的第二部分，可能是的。

At least one of them, we believe, yes.

我們相信，至少其中之一是的。

But you know what?

但你知道嗎？

I don't want you adding 1 plus 1 equals 2 here.

我不希望你在這裡加 1 加 1 等於 2。

Those are not validated in our view under our model as customers.

在我們作為客戶的模型下，這些並沒有被驗證。

So please don't do your addition to the $60 billion to $90 billion SAM that I have postulated in my remarks.

因此，請不要對我在演講中假設的 600 億至 900 億美元的 SAM 進行補充。

Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

羅斯·西莫爾，德意志銀行。

Thanks for the -- ask a question.

感謝您提出問題。

I want to talk about the cash return side of things.

我想談談現金回饋方面的事情。

Great job on the dividend increase.

股息增加方面做得很好。

The other 50%, is fiscal '25 a year where you're going to still be paying down debt?

另外 50% 是 25 財年您仍要償還債務的嗎？

Share repurchase is in the mix?

股票回購也在其中？

Or Hock, you mentioned that VMware, the integration is largely now behind you.

或者 Hock，您提到 VMware，整合現在基本上已經過去了。

Usually, that puts you on the prowl looking for deals.

通常，這會讓您四處尋找優惠。

Is that something we should, in general, think about?

一般來說，這是我們應該考慮的事情嗎？

Or is there regulatory issues that are still a concern?

或者是否存在仍然令人擔憂的監管問題？

Just trying to figure out what that other 50% is going to go towards this year.

只是想弄清楚今年剩下的 50% 將用於做什麼。

Well, to start with, yeah, the other 50% of cash that is -- will be generated that we will not use, that is beyond dividends, we only have one use for -- two uses for it, we've always said.

好吧，首先，是的，我們不會使用另外 50% 的現金，這超出了股息，我們只有一種用途 - 有兩種用途，我們總是說。

One is parking our balance sheet for the opportunity to buy someone else, but in reality, we're buying big enough companies.

一是擱置我們的資產負債表，以便有機會收購其他公司，但實際上，我們正​​在收購足夠大的公司。

You almost say that 50% cash is sitting there is not adequate.

你幾乎會說 50% 的現金放在那裡是不夠的。

So the likely use of that 50% cash is, as Kirsten indicated in her prepared remarks, pay down debt.

因此，正如克爾斯滕在她準備好的演講中指出的那樣，這 50% 的現金可能用於償還債務。

We do intend to use part of that 50% free cash flow that's not used for dividends to go delever ourselves, given the size of the debt load we are taking on or we have taken on since we acquired VMware.

考慮到我們正在承擔的債務負擔或自收購 VMware 以來我們已經承擔的債務負擔，我們確實打算將未用於股息的 50% 自由現金流中的一部分用於去槓桿化。

Yeah, Ross.

是的，羅斯。

It's Kirsten.

這是克爾斯滕。

We want to focus on reducing interest expense.

我們希望集中精力減少利息支出。

So we'll go after those term loans.

所以我們將追求這些定期貸款。

So yes, the focus will be on paying down debt.

所以是的，重點將是償還債務。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America.

維韋克·阿里亞 (Vivek Arya)，美國銀行。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Hock, back to AI.

霍克，回到人工智慧。

What do you think is the SAM in 2024, so we can get a baseline view of what your $12.2 billion in sales represent?

您認為 2024 年的 SAM 是多少，以便我們可以了解您 122 億美元的銷售額代表什麼？

And is your assumption that you maintain this share, right?

你的假設是你會維持這個份額，對嗎？

You grow it?

你種植它嗎？

Or what happens to that share over time?

或者隨著時間的推移，該份額會發生什麼變化？

And then related question to that is what happens to your semiconductor gross margins if AI grows to such an extent?

與此相關的問題是，如果人工智慧發展到這樣的程度，你們的半導體毛利率會發生什麼變化？

Because you gave us a mid-single-digit for non-AI.

因為你給了我們一個中等個位數的非人工智慧。

And I'm wondering, if AI gets to be such a big part of semis, what happens to gross margin?

我想知道，如果人工智慧成為半成品的重要組成部分，那麼毛利率會發生什麼變化？

So both kind of the baseline of what the SAM was this year and what happens to your share and margins over time?

那麼今年 SAM 的基線以及隨著時間的推移您的份額和利潤率會發生什麼變化？

Okay.

好的。

That's a very insightful question on the first one, which -- on the first one, anyway, where -- you are saying, what is the baseline on the $60 billion to $90 billion in three years' time, where we are specifying down to these three customers of ours.

這是關於第一個問題的一個非常有洞察力的問題，無論如何，在第一個問題上，你是說，三年內 600 億美元到 900 億美元的基線是多少，我們具體指定為我們的這三個客戶。

And I would estimate this 2024 for there to be about less than $20 billion -- $15 billion to $20 billion at this point.

我估計 2024 年這一數字將低於 200 億美元——目前為 150 億至 200 億美元。

In 2024, $15 billion to $20 billion, going to $60 billion to $90 billion.

2024 年，這一數字將達到 150 億至 200 億美元，達到 600 億至 900 億美元。

All right?

好的？

And in terms of margins, well, don't get too hung up at gross margin please, Vivek, because you're not wrong.

就利潤率而言，維韋克，請不要太在意毛利率，因為你沒有錯。

Gross margin in semiconductors will dilute, you're (technical difficulty) in saying that.

半導體的毛利率將會稀釋，你是這麼說的（技術難度）。

But see, the game here is the revenue will leverage so much on the spending we have to do to generate it that the operating margin will improve from where we are today.

但請注意，這裡的遊戲是，收入將在很大程度上利用我們為產生收入而必須進行的支出，從而使營業利潤率將比我們今天的水平有所提高。

Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler.

嚴厲的庫馬爾，派珀桑德勒。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey.

嘿。

First of all, guys, huge congratulations on successfully integrating VMware so much ahead of your timeframe.

首先，夥伴們，熱烈祝賀您提前成功整合 VMware。

And Hock, I had a two-part question.

霍克，我有一個由兩個部分組成的問題。

Is there a simple dollar metric that we can think of for network attached to XPUs?

對於連接到 XPU 的網絡，我們是否可以想到一個簡單的美元指標？

For example, is $1 of networking to $1 of XPUs?

例如，1 美元的網路費用相當於 1 美元的 XPU 嗎？

And then for my question, in one of your posts, you talked about sovereign data centers and VMware.

對於我的問題，您在一篇文章中談到了主權資料中心和 VMware。

I guess my question is, is there a play for Broadcom outside of the software piece?

我想我的問題是，除了軟體之外，博通還有其他業務嗎？

In other words, are you noticing that sovereign guys are wanting to use XPUs?

換句話說，您是否注意到主權國家想要使用 XPU？

Or are they strictly sticking to merchant silicon?

還是他們嚴格遵守商業晶片？

Let me answer your question backwards, the easiest one first.

讓我倒著回答你的問題，先回答最簡單的問題。

Sovereign guys -- unlike most of the other -- it's pretty much like enterprise market, which is simply merchant.

主權國家——與大多數其他國家不同——它很像企業市場，只是商人。

Sovereign guys do not have the capability necessarily to create first, the hardware, but more importantly, the software stack to enable transistors in the hardware to translate itself into high-level language, which then the LLM, the large language models, and AI applications can operate on.

主權者不一定有能力首先創建硬件，但更重要的是，創建軟體堆棧，使硬體中的晶體管能夠將自身翻譯成高級語言，然後是法學碩士、大型語言模型和人工智慧應用程式可以操作。

So they'll stick to what's available, which is merchant silicon and the available ecosystem of software layers that allow that translation.

因此，他們將堅持使用可用的東西，即商業晶片和允許這種轉換的可用軟體層生態系統。

So it will be done very much that way on XPUs.

因此，在 XPU 上也會以這種方式完成。

And on your first question of what's the ratio between AI connectivity in networking, that is you're saying, to XPUs, the compute, well, it's a changing number as the cluster expands, though there are some ratios to be looked at.

關於第一個問題，即網路中人工智慧連接之間的比率是多少，也就是說，對於 XPU、運算來說，隨著叢集的擴展，這個數字會發生變化，儘管有一些比率需要考慮。

And the simple ratio to look at is there is scale up and there is scale out.

簡單的比率就是向上擴展和向外擴展。

And as we expand into a single fabric cluster of XPUs or GPUs that grows bigger and bigger, guess what is more important?

隨著我們擴展到 XPU 或 GPU 的單一結構叢集並變得越來越大，猜猜什麼更重要？

Scale up becomes more important.

擴大規模變得更加重要。

And the ratio we are talking about, as we move up, increases almost exponentially, which is why I'm saying from probably networking as a percent of AI content in silicon today of between 5% to 10%, you're going up to 15% to 20% by the time you hit 500,000 to 1 million XPU, GPU clusters.

我們正在談論的比率，隨著我們的提升，幾乎呈指數級增長，這就是為什麼我說，從今天的矽片中人工智能內容的百分比來看，網絡可能在5% 到10% 之間，你會上升到當您達到 50 萬到 100 萬個 XPU、GPU 叢集時，將提高 15% 到 20%。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari，高盛。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

Thank you so much for taking the question.

非常感謝您提出這個問題。

The $60 billion to $90 billion SAM forecast for fiscal '27, Hock, I'm curious if you guys have a view on the TAM.

SAM 對 27 財年的預測為 600 億至 900 億美元，Hock，我很好奇你們對 TAM 有何看法。

So just want to know how big the SAM is as a percentage of the total opportunity set.

所以只想知道 SAM 在總機會集中所佔的百分比有多大。

And then my main question is you talked about going for leading market share within your SAM, which makes sense.

我的主要問題是您談到要在 SAM 中爭取領先的市場份額，這是有道理的。

I assume you're not assuming 100% share.

我假設你沒有假設 100% 的份額。

So the value of that $60 billion to $90 billion that you won't be capturing, is that a function of some of your hyperscale customers wanting to capture value internally?

那麼，您無法獲得的 600 億至 900 億美元的價值是否是您的一些超大規模客戶想要在內部獲得價值的結果？

Or is that always having a backup or a second source?

或總是有備份或第二個來源？

Is there a low-margin business that you just simply won't pursue?

是否存在您根本不會從事的低利潤業務？

How should we think about the part of the $60 billion to $90 billion that you won't be going after or won't be capturing?

我們該如何看待 600 億至 900 億美元中您不會追求或不會獲得的部分？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

First, to answer the bigger overarching question, I don't know the TAM.

首先，要回答一個更大的整體問題，我不了解 TAM。

I don't make any parts of the -- I don't think too far and hard about them.

我沒有製作其中的任何部分——我對它們沒有想得太遠和太難。

We don't think in macro approaches.

我們不會用宏觀的方法來思考。

We're looking at line of sight here.

我們在這裡觀察視線。

So I got customers.

所以我有了客戶。

I try to figure out how much volume the -- where the road map of the customer is, not just product, technology, but what they are building out, what is their consumption pattern like.

我試著弄清楚客戶的路線圖在哪裡，不僅是產品、技術，還有他們正在建造什麼，他們的消費模式是什麼樣的。

That's how we create our SAM.

這就是我們建立 SAM 的方式。

Actually, in a way, bottoms up, then top down.

實際上，在某種程度上，是自下而上，然後自上而下。

So I have no idea what the TAM is beyond customers we are serving closely, collaborating closely.

因此，除了我們密切服務、密切合作的客戶之外，我不知道 TAM 是什麼。

So let's make it clear.

所以讓我們說清楚。

In terms of market share, don't know.

至於市場份額，不知道。

But as you all can see, it's a very large, substantial market opportunity.

但正如大家所看到的，這是一個非常大、巨大的市場機會。

There's room for many players.

有很多玩家的空間。

All we're going to do is gain our fair share.

我們要做的就是獲得我們應得的份額。

We're just very well positioned today having the best technology, very relevant in this space.

今天，我們處於非常有利的位置，擁有最好的技術，在這個領域非常相關。

We have, by far, one of the best technology -- combination of technology out there to do XPUs and to connect those XPUs.

到目前為止，我們擁有最好的技術之一——將 XPU 和連接這些 XPU 的技術結合在一起。

The silicon technology that enables it, we have it here in Broadcom by the boatloads, which is why we are very well positioned with these three customers of ours.

實現這一目標的矽技術，我們在博通擁有大量的技術，這就是為什麼我們在這三個客戶中處於有利地位。

So based on that, we are -- and based on the depth of our engagement today -- this didn't just start; this has been going on now for a while in terms of deep engagement with engineering teams from the other side -- each of the other side -- we are very well positioned, well underway to creating a multi-year road map to enable these few customers of ours to get to where their ambition leads them to be in.

因此，基於此，我們——並且基於我們今天參與的深度——這不僅僅是開始；而是。這種情況已經持續了一段時間，與另一方的工程團隊（另一方的每一個）進行深入接觸，我們處於非常有利的位置，正在努力創建一個多年路線圖，以使這些少數人能夠實現這一目標。

And it's because of the great technology we have, where we are actually enabling in the areas we're very good at.

這是因為我們擁有出色的技術，我們實際上在我們非常擅長的領域提供支援。

We're talking about silicon design, packaging design and optical technology.

我們談論的是矽設計、封裝設計和光學技術。

William Stein, Truist Securities.

威廉斯坦，Truist 證券公司。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I want to add my congrats to all the great results this year and for the quarter and outlook.

我想對今年以及本季和展望的所有出色業績表示祝賀。

But Hock, this is sort of a stunning turn of events in the last year with what we've been accustomed to thinking of as a sort of mature, slow-growth business at its core, with all the M&A tacked on to it.

但霍克，這是去年發生的令人震驚的事件，我們一直習慣將其視為一種成熟的、成長緩慢的業務，其核心是所有的併購活動。

And I wonder, with the sudden acceleration of the organic business given your exposure to these capabilities in ASICs to bring AI technologies to customers, does that change your interest level in M&A?

我想知道，鑑於您接觸到 ASIC 的這些功能，將人工智慧技術帶給客戶，有機業務突然加速，這是否會改變您對併購的興趣水平？

And does it change your focus area of potential M&A going forward?

這是否會改變您未來潛在併購的重點領域？

Thank you.

謝謝。

No, it doesn't.

不，事實並非如此。

We are open, still open, always open because that's been a core part of our strategy and business model of this company for the last 10 years, which is we're always interested in adding to our portfolio very good franchise assets, be they in semiconductors or be they in infrastructure software.

我們是開放的，仍然是開放的，永遠是開放的，因為這是過去10 年我們公司策略和商業模式的核心部分，我們總是有興趣在我們的投資組合中添加非常好的特許經營資產，無論是在半導體或基礎設施軟體。

As long as -- as we always say -- they meet the criteria, the fairly demanding criteria we look for, we would always be open to acquiring these assets and adding into our portfolio.

正如我們常說的那樣，只要它們符合我們所尋求的相當苛刻的標準，我們就始終願意收購這些資產並將其添加到我們的投資組合中。

So no, it hasn't changed our thinking at all.

所以不，它根本沒有改變我們的想法。

Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

維傑·拉克什，瑞穗。

Hi, Hock. great results here.

嗨，霍克。這裡取得了很好的成績。

Just a question back on the AI custom silicon side.

只是回到人工智慧客製化晶片方面的問題。

I guess it looks like of the $17.5 billion TAM here -- or SAM here, you have about 70% share.

我猜想，對於 175 億美元的 TAM 或 SAM，您擁有大約 70% 的份額。

So assuming that 70% looking out to '27, your custom silicon AI revenues should be like $50 billion in fiscal '27.

因此，假設 70% 的人期待 27 年，那麼您的客製化晶片 AI 收入在 27 財年應該約為 500 億美元。

So do we have a good line of sight into fiscal '26, showing a pretty nice ramp to hit those numbers, maybe with Ultra Ethernet and all that to do the 1 million XPUs?

那麼，我們是否對 26 財年有一個良好的視野，顯示出達到這些數字的相當不錯的增長，也許透過超以太網和所有這些來實現 100 萬個 XPU？

How do you see that?

你怎麼看？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I don't have -- we don't have really a good enough line of sight to want to share it with you, nor for that matter, do we have a policy of giving you guidance beyond what we're doing, one quarter a year.

我沒有——我們沒有足夠好的視野來與你們分享，就此而言，我們是否有政策為你們提供超出我們正在做的事情的指導，四分之一一年。

But we do want to give you a sense of where this journey is headed.

但我們確實想讓您了解這段旅程的走向。

We want to give you a sense of where this could lead us, this company, in terms of its AI -- semiconductor AI revenue trajectory.

我們想讓您了解這可能會引導我們這家公司在人工智慧——半導體人工智慧收入軌跡方面走向何方。

Given that we now made it very open, official almost, that we are going forward only guiding AI revenue versus non-AI revenue, we figured at least give you a sense of what the AI trajectory is.

鑑於我們現在已經非常公開、幾乎是官方地表示，我們將僅指導人工智慧收入與非人工智慧收入，我們認為至少可以讓您了解人工智慧的發展軌跡。

On the non-AI, we have known it; you have known it with us for a long time.

對於非AI，我們已經知道了；你和我們早就知道了。

It's mature.

已經成熟了。

It's stable, evolving, growing mid-single-digit GDP plus.

它是穩定的、不斷發展的、不斷增長的中等個位數的 GDP。

AI, we've never given you that.

AI，我們從來沒有給過你這個。

So that's why we take this step now, unprecedented in some ways, of laying that road map in terms of potential market for AI.

這就是為什麼我們現在採取這一步，在某些方面是前所未有的，為人工智慧的潛在市場制定路線圖。

Now only market we have is the customers we have and the end markets we serve.

現在我們擁有的唯一市場就是我們擁有的客戶和我們服務的終端市場。

So we create this SAM.

所以我們創建了這個 SAM。

And the clarity we see is, to some extent, in 2027.

從某種程度上來說，我們看到的清晰度是在 2027 年。

How that journey progresses with each of (technical difficulty) customers is somewhat variable.

每個（技術難度）客戶的旅程如何進展都有些不同。

It's the rate of the adoption and how -- of their own XPUs.

這是他們自己的 XPU 的採用率和採用方式。

And we'll be very much a part of their journey.

我們將成為他們旅程的重要組成部分。

But because of that, we expect to see a situation where there could be quarter-to-quarter variability, given there are only three customers and the fact that deployment comes in big chunks, typically.

但正因為如此，考慮到只有三個客戶並且部署通常是大塊的，我們預計會出現季度與季度之間存在差異的情況。

So my best answer to you is, I can't give you any clarity beyond what I've given so far.

所以我對你最好的回答是，除了我到目前為止所給出的內容之外，我無法給你任何清晰的訊息。

Got it.

知道了。

And the other two CSPs, when do you see them ramping?

另外兩個 CSP，您什麼時候會看到它們的成長？

Well, first of all, I got to get into production -- they got to get into production.

嗯，首先，我必須投入生產——他們必須投入生產。

So why don't we cross that bridge when we get to it?

那麼，當我們到達那座橋時，為什麼不跨過那座橋呢？

We are working very hard with them to get it production stage.

我們正在與他們非常努力地合作以使其進入生產階段。

We're pretty deeply engaged.

我們非常投入。

We have tape-out chips.

我們有流片晶片。

But they got to get their software ready.

但他們必須準備好軟體。

They got to get it tested, and they got to get going on it.

他們必須對其進行測試，並且必須繼續進行。

So now, I'm not sure, but definitely, over the next three years.

所以現在，我不確定，但肯定會在未來三年內發生。

And thank you.

謝謝你。

That is all the time we have for our question-and-answer session.

這就是我們問答環節的全部時間。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Ji Yoo, Head of Investor Relations, for closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉回給投資人關係主管 Ji Yoo，讓其發表結束語。

Thank you, Cherie.

謝謝你，切麗。

Broadcom currently plans to report its earnings for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 after close of market on Thursday, March 6, 2024.

Broadcom 目前計劃於 2024 年 3 月 6 日星期四收盤後公佈 2025 財年第一季的收益。

A public webcast of Broadcom's earnings conference call will follow at 2:00 PM Pacific Time.

Broadcom 財報電話會議的公開網路直播將於太平洋時間下午 2:00 進行。

That will conclude our earnings call today.

我們今天的財報電話會議到此結束。

Thank you, all, for joining.

謝謝大家的加入。

Operator, you may end the call.

接線員，您可以結束通話了。

This concludes today's program.

今天的節目到此結束。

Thank you, all, for participating.

謝謝大家的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。