亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web.

早安，歡迎參加 ADI 公司 2025 財年第一季財報電話會議，該會議透過電話和網路進行音訊網路直播。

I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Vice President of Investor Relations and Division Controller of Data Center, Energy & Power.

現在，我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁兼數據中心、能源和電力部門控制員邁克爾·盧卡雷利先生。

Sir, the floor is yours.

先生，現在請您發言。

Thank you, Daniel, and good morning, everybody.

謝謝你，丹尼爾，大家早安。

Thanks for joining our first quarter fiscal 2025 conference call.

感謝您參加我們的 2025 財年第一季電話會議。

With me on the call today are ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche; and ADI's CFO, Rich Puccio.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ADI 的執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche；以及 ADI 的財務長 Rich Puccio。

For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and related financial schedules at investor.analog.com. Onto the disclosures.

對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在 investor.analog.com 上找到它和相關的財務時間表。開始披露。

The information we're about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties as further described in our earnings release and other periodic parts and other materials filed with the SEC.

我們即將討論的資訊包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受制於某些風險和不確定性，如我們的收益報告和其他定期部分以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他資料中進一步所述。

Actual results could differ materially from this forward-looking information as these statements reflect our expectations only at the date of this call.

實際結果可能與此前瞻性資訊有重大差異，因為這些陳述僅反映我們在本次電話會議之日的預期。

We undertake no obligation to update these statements except required by law.

除非法律要求，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

References to gross margin, operating and nonoperating expenses, operating margin, tax rate, EPS and free cash flow in our comments today will be on a non-GAAP basis.

我們今天評論中提到的毛利率、營業費用和非營業費用、營業利潤率、稅率、每股收益和自由現金流均基於非 GAAP 基礎。

These excluded special items.

這些不包括特殊項目。

When comparing our results to historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior periods.

當我們的結果與歷史績效進行比較時，特殊項目也被排除在前期之外。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release.

今天的收益報告中包含了這些非公認會計準則指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標的對帳以及有關我們的非公認會計準則指標的其他資訊。

All references to earnings per share are on a fully diluted basis.

所有每股收益均以全面稀釋的基礎計算。

And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche.

現在，我將把發言權交給 ADI 的執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche。

Thanks very much, Mike, and a very good morning to you all.

非常感謝，麥克，祝大家早安。

First quarter revenue profitability and earnings per share all finished above the midpoint of our outlook.

第一季的營收、獲利能力和每股盈餘均高於我們預期的中點。

And while we continue to operate in a challenging macro and geopolitical environment, our first quarter results and outlook for double-digit year-over-year growth in our second quarter builds my confidence that 2025 will be a year of growth.

雖然我們繼續在充滿挑戰的宏觀和地緣政治環境中運營，但我們第一季的業績以及第二季度同比增長兩位數的前景使我相信，2025 年將是增長的一年。

Our track record of resilience and profitability through cycles, combined with our strong balance sheet supports our long-standing robust capital return program.

我們在周期中的韌性和獲利記錄，加上我們強勁的資產負債表，支持了我們長期強勁的資本回報計劃。

I'm delighted to share that we've increased our dividend for the 21 consecutive year, and that over just the past five years, we have returned more than $16 billion or roughly 15% of our current market cap to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

我很高興地告訴大家，我們已經連續 21 年增加股息，在過去五年裡，我們透過股息和股票回購向股東返還了超過 160 億美元，約佔當前市值的 15%。

Turning now to our operating environment.

現在來談談我們的操作環境。

The magnitude and duration of this most recent semiconductor cycle has surprised many of us.

最新一次半導體週期的規模和持續時間令許多人感到驚訝。

But we believe ADI has entered and is well positioned for sustained recovery.

但我們相信 ADI 已進入持續復甦階段，並已做好充分準備。

Throughout the cycle, we invested diligently to enhance and leverage our hybrid manufacturing model to support the dynamic needs of our customers, both big and small.

在整個週期中，我們努力投資以增強和利用我們的混合製造模式，以支援大大小小的客戶的動態需求。

We work closely with our customers to be responsive to their evolving business needs and map factory starts to true end demand.

我們與客戶密切合作，響應他們不斷變化的業務需求並繪製工廠開始真正的最終需求。

As a result, inventory levels have largely normalized and our partnership approach with our customers throughout the volatility of the past several years has enabled us to balance supply and real demand.

因此，庫存水準已基本恢復正常，並且在過去幾年的波動中，我們與客戶的合作方式使我們能夠平衡供應和實際需求。

While the macro backdrop will continue to influence the pace of our recovery, the signals we monitor from lean channel inventories to gradual bookings improvements over the past 18 months. support our view that we've passed the cyclical trough, and the tide has turned in our favor.

雖然宏觀背景將繼續影響我們復甦的步伐，但我們監測到的過去 18 個月中從精簡的通路庫存到預訂量逐步改善的訊號。支持我們的觀點，我們已經度過了周期性的低谷，並且情況已經對我們有利。

Throughout the cycle, we've been busily deepening our customer engagements and accelerating our pipeline growth and conversion.

在整個週期中，我們一直忙於深化客戶參與度並加速通路成長和轉換。

Many of the design wins I've shared on recent calls are [not] contributing to growth.

我在最近的電話會議上分享的許多設計成果都沒有促進成長。

And let me give you some examples.

讓我給你舉幾個例子。

For example, in industrial automation, the shift towards decentralized intelligence to enable modular manufacturing is driving significant growth in software-defined connectivity solutions.

例如，在工業自動化領域，向分散智慧的轉變以實現模組化製造，正在推動軟體定義的連接解決方案的顯著增長。

Our software configurable I/O products that double channel density and reduce power consumption by 40% have been installed across all major automation suppliers.

我們的軟體可設定 I/O 產品可將通道密度加倍、功耗降低 40%，並已安裝在所有主要自動化供應商處。

Revenue from these wins has begun ramping and the automation market begins to recover and will provide a durable revenue stream over the next decade.

這些勝利帶來的收入開始增加，自動化市場開始復甦，並將在未來十年提供持久的收入來源。

Within the growing surgical robotics segment, increasing levels of content from across our portfolio, and in particular, or high precision solutions are being deployed in next-generation surgical systems.

在不斷發展的手術機器人領域，我們整個產品組合中越來越多的內容，特別是高精度解決方案正在部署到下一代手術系統中。

And additionally, in health care, the growing interest in a data-driven approach to health and wellness is creating a convergence of the clinical and consumer markets and driving demand for higher performance of vital signs monitoring in consumer wearables.

此外，在醫療保健領域，人們對數據驅動的健康和保健方法的興趣日益濃厚，正在促成臨床和消費市場的融合，並推動對消費穿戴裝置中更高效能生命體徵監測的需求。

Our suite of high-performance sensors, signal chains and efficient power solutions and wins at leaders in these markets position us for double-digit growth this year.

我們的高性能感測器、訊號鍊和高效電源解決方案套件以及在這些市場的領先地位使我們今年能夠實現兩位數的成長。

Within the automatic test equipment market, the growth of AI has significantly increased our signal chain and power content.

在自動測試設備市場中，人工智慧的成長顯著增加了我們的訊號鍊和電源含量。

In some cases, by up to 300% across memory test systems.

在某些情況下，跨記憶體測試系統可達 300%。

Customers are leveraging our solutions to increase channel density and throughput while reducing power demands by up to 30% per system.

客戶正在利用我們的解決方案來提高通道密度和吞吐量，同時將每個系統的電力需求降低高達 30%。

In light of increased hyperscale CapEx, we expect our 2025 memory and high-performance compute test revenue to achieve strong growth.

鑑於超大規模資本支出的增加，我們預計 2025 年記憶體和高效能運算測試收入將實現強勁成長。

In our broad aerospace and defense portfolio, our modules, which support ASPs often into the hundreds of thousands of dollars are expected to lead double-digit growth in this industrial subsector in 2025.

在我們廣泛的航空航太和國防產品組合中，我們的模組通常支援價值數十萬美元的 ASP，預計將在 2025 年引領該工業次產業實現兩位數的成長。

In addition, we're anticipating growth this year from newer design wins in [orap] and power in the military and commercial satellite sectors.

此外，我們預計今年軍事和商業衛星領域在[orap]和電力方面的新設計勝利將帶來成長。

In automotive, the convergence of trends ranging from autonomy to electrification to immersive in-cabin experiences continue to drive robust demand for many of our solutions.

在汽車領域，從自動化到電氣化再到沉浸式車內體驗等趨勢的整合繼續推動對我們許多解決方案的強勁需求。

For example, our GMSL portfolio is outpacing the growth of advanced driver assistance systems and is positioned to reach yet another record-breaking year in 2025.

例如，我們的 GMSL 產品組合正超越高級駕駛輔助系統的成長速度，並有望在 2025 年再創紀錄。

Since acquiring this video connectivity technology in 2021, our revenue has nearly tripled.

自 2021 年獲得這項視訊連接技術以來，我們的收入成長了近三倍。

We're also anticipating continued record-setting revenue from our A2B and functionally safe power franchises, which share similar growth trajectories.

我們也預計，我們的 A2B 和功能安全電力特許經營權將繼續創下創紀錄的收入，它們有著相似的成長軌跡。

Lastly, in electric vehicles, BMS is poised to return to growth in '25 after a challenging prior year.

最後，在電動車領域，BMS 在經歷了充滿挑戰的一年後，預計在 25 年恢復成長。

Part of this growth is coming from our higher content wireless solution wins with key OEMs ramping in America and Europe.

這一成長部分源於我們的高內容無線解決方案贏得了美國和歐洲主要原始設備製造商的青睞。

In communications, our growth is predominantly being driven by robust CapEx investments to support AI infrastructure buildouts.

在通訊領域，我們的成長主要受到支援人工智慧基礎設施建設的強勁資本支出投資的推動。

Our high-precision electrooptical controller is now shipping in a 1.6 terabit optical module for AI systems based on industry-leading GPUs.

我們的高精度電光控制器目前正在基於業界領先的 GPU 為 AI 系統提供 1.6 太比特光學模組。

On the power side of the data center, we are delivering high voltage power path protection systems, which are on a strong growth trajectory, and we'll begin shipping our vertical power solutions later in this year.

在資料中心的電源方面，我們正在提供高壓電源路徑保護系統，該系統正處於強勁的成長軌跡，我們將在今年稍後開始提供我們的垂直電源解決方案。

Finally, in consumer, design wins secured in recent years at multiple customers across numerous applications, including premium handsets, hearables, wearables and gaming systems, began to drive robust diversified growth in the second half of fiscal '24, with even more content in upcoming launches, we expect a strong year ahead and beyond in consumer.

最後，在消費領域，近年來，我們獲得多個客戶在眾多應用領域的設計勝利，包括高階手機、可聽設備、穿戴式裝置和遊戲系統，開始推動24財年下半年強勁的多元化成長，隨著即將推出的更多內容，我們預計消費領域未來一年及以後將表現強勁。

Collectively, we anticipate these combined cyclical and idiosyncratic trends to return us to a solid growth path this year.

總的來說，我們預計這些週期性和特殊性趨勢將使我們今年重返穩健的成長軌道。

So in closing, the relatively favorable position in which we find ourselves coming out of one of the worst downturns the industry has ever experienced, is not by chance.

總而言之，我們發現自己正從行業所經歷的最嚴重的衰退之一中走出來，並處於相對有利的地位，這並非偶然。

But rather a reflection of our fiscal and operational discipline, commitment to the success of our customers and our investments for the long term.

而是反映了我們的財務和營運紀律、對客戶成功的承諾以及我們的長期投資。

And while I'm excited about our prospects for 2025, I'm even more excited about the longer-term opportunities across numerous concurrent secular growth areas, including automation, digital health care electrification, automotive data center and many, many more.

雖然我對我們 2025 年的前景感到興奮，但我對眾多同時出現的長期成長領域的長期機會更為興奮，包括自動化、數位醫療電氣化、汽車數據中心等等。

A common request from our customers across our many diversified applications is that we help them attain the increasing complexity by bringing more complete solutions to them, a reflection of our robust technology stack and stellar customer reputation.

我們眾多多樣化應用程式中客戶的一個共同要求是，我們透過為他們提供更完整的解決方案來幫助他們應對日益複雜的問題，這反映了我們強大的技術堆疊和卓越的客戶聲譽。

In stepping up to our customers' challenge, we continue to push the edges by investing vigorously in our world-class analog, mixed signal and power portfolios and integrate higher levels of supporting digital and software into our solutions to meet our customers at the application layer.

為了應對客戶的挑戰，我們不斷突破極限，大力投資我們世界一流的類比、混合訊號和電源產品組合，並將更高水準的支援數位和軟體整合到我們的解決方案中，以滿足應用層客戶的需求。

And so with that, I'd like to pass the call over to Rich.

因此，我想將電話轉給里奇。

Thank you, Vince, and let me add my welcome to our first quarter earnings call.

謝謝你，文斯，請容許我歡迎你參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。

First quarter revenue of $2.42 billion came in above the midpoint of our outlook for a 1% sequential decrease and a 4% decline year-over-year.

第一季營收為 24.2 億美元，高於我們預期的中位數，即季減 1%，年減 4%。

Adjusting for the extra week in our fiscal Q1 2024, however, our Q1 '25 performance represents a 4% increase in our first year-over-year growth since Q2 of 2023.

然而，考慮到 2024 財年第一季的額外一周，我們 2025 年第一季度的業績代表著自 2023 年第二季以來首次同比增長 4%。

Industrial represented 44% of our first quarter revenue, finishing up 1% sequentially.

工業業務占我們第一季營收的 44%，季增 1%。

The improved customer inventory backdrop is benefiting each of our industrial

客戶庫存背景的改善使我們的每個產業

(technical difficulty).

（技術難度）。

In addition, we are seeing stronger demand in our automatic test and aerospace and defense businesses, each of which were up year-over-year.

此外，我們發現自動測試、航空航太和國防業務的需求也不斷增強，這些業務的需求均較去年同期成長。

Automotive represented 30% of quarterly revenue, finishing up 2% sequentially.

汽車業務佔本季營收的 30%，季增 2%。

Our leading connectivity and functionally safe power solutions were each up double digits year-over-year once again, reflecting secular content growth and greater share position.

我們領先的連接性和功能安全電源解決方案再次比去年同期成長兩位數，反映了長期的內容成長和更高的份額地位。

Communications represented 12% of quarterly revenue, finishing up 6% sequentially.

通訊業務佔本季營收的 12%，比上一季成長 6%。

Wireline, which makes up roughly 2/3 of our total communications business, was up double digits sequentially and year-over-year, driven by data center infrastructure buildouts fueled by AI demand.

有線業務約占我們整個通訊業務的 2/3，受人工智慧需求推動的資料中心基礎設施建設推動，有線業務環比和同比增長均達到兩位數。

Conversely, our wireless revenue continues to see demand challenges.

相反，我們的無線收入繼續面臨需求挑戰。

And lastly, consumer represented 13% of quarterly revenue, finishing down 15% sequentially, reflecting seasonal

最後，消費者業務佔本季營收的 13%，季減 15%，反映出季節性

[latency].

[延遲]。

Our second consecutive quarter of robust year-over-year growth reflects our greater share and stronger content position across a diversified list of applications.

我們連續第二個季度實現強勁的同比增長，反映了我們在多樣化應用程式中所佔的份額更大、內容地位更強。

Now on to the rest of the P&L.

現在來看看損益表的其餘部分。

First quarter gross margin was 68.8%, up 90 basis points sequentially, driven by favorable product mix.

由於良好的產品組合，第一季毛利率為 68.8%，比上一季上升 90 個基點。

OpEx in the quarter was $687 million, up $32 million sequentially, resulting in an operating margin of 40.5%.

本季營運支出為 6.87 億美元，比上一季增加 3,200 萬美元，營運利潤率為 40.5%。

All told, nonoperating expenses finished at $58 million, and the tax rate for the quarter was 11.8%.

整體而言，非營業支出為 5,800 萬美元，本季的稅率為 11.8%。

All told, adjusted EPS was $1.63, at the high end of our guided range.

總而言之，調整後的每股收益為 1.63 美元，處於我們指導範圍的高點。

Now I'd like to highlight a few items from our balance sheet and cash flow statements.

現在我想強調一下我們的資產負債表和現金流量表中的幾個項目。

Cash and short-term investments finished the quarter at $2.7 billion, and our net leverage ratio decreased to 1.1. Inventory increased $27 million sequentially as we replenish the die bank of our fastest-turning products.

本季度，現金和短期投資達到 27 億美元，我們的淨槓桿率下降至 1.1。由於我們補充了周轉最快的產品的模具庫，庫存環比增加了 2700 萬美元。

Days of inventory increased to 176, while channel weeks moved lower and remained below our target of seven to eight weeks.

庫存天數增加至 176 天，而渠道週數則走低並仍低於我們七至八週的目標。

Over the trailing 12 months operating cash flow and CapEx were $3.8 billion and $656 million, respectively.

過去 12 個月的營運現金流和資本支出分別為 38 億美元和 6.56 億美元。

We continue to expect CapEx for fiscal '25 to decrease from '24 and fall within our long-term model of 4% to 6% of revenue.

我們繼續預期25財年的資本支出將較24財年有所下降，並在我們的長期模型中佔營收的4%到6%之間。

Free cash flow over the trailing 12 months was $3.2 billion or 34% of revenue.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 32 億美元，佔營收的 34%。

And during the same time period, we have returned more than $2.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

在同一時期，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了超過 24 億美元。

As a reminder, we target 100% free cash flow return over the long term, using 40% to 60% for our dividend with the remainder used for share count reduction.

提醒一下，我們的目標是長期實現 100% 的自由現金流回報，其中 40% 到 60% 用於派息，剩餘部分用於減少股份數量。

As Vince mentioned, we announced an 8% increase to our quarterly dividend to $0.99 from $0.92. In addition, our Board has authorized an incremental $10 billion for share repurchases resulting in roughly $11.5 billion of remaining buyback potential under our current program.

正如文斯所提到的，我們宣布季度股息從 0.92 美元增加 8% 至 0.99 美元。此外，我們的董事會已批准增量 100 億美元的股票回購，使得我們目前計劃下的剩餘回購潛力達到約 115 億美元。

Now moving on to guidance.

現在開始指導。

Second quarter revenue is expected to be $2.5 billion, plus or minus $100 million.

預計第二季營收為 25 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。

On a sequential basis, at the midpoint, we expect Industrial to lead our growth and automotive to grow, while communications and consumer decline.

從中點來看，我們預計工業將引領我們的成長，汽車業務將成長，而通訊和消費者業務將下滑。

Operating margin is expected to be 40.5%, plus or minus 100 basis points flat sequentially due to a notable uptick in variable compensation.

由於可變薪酬顯著上升，預計營業利潤率將達到 40.5%，與上一季持平，上下浮動 100 個基點。

Our tax rate is expected to be 11% to 13%, and based on these imports, adjusted EPS is expected to be $1.68 plus or minus $0.10. Before passing it back to Mike to begin our Q&A session, I'd like to address the near-term backdrop.

我們的稅率預計為 11% 至 13%，基於這些進口，調整後的每股盈餘預計為 1.68 美元加減 0.10 美元。在將其交還給麥克並開始我們的問答環節之前，我想先談談近期的背景。

Overall, our business continues to improve up our Q2 '24 trough in what continues to be an uncertain macro environment.

總體而言，在宏觀環境持續不確定的情況下，我們的業務繼續從 24 年第二季的低谷中回升。

We saw further order improvement and a positive book-to-bill during Q1.

我們在第一季看到訂單量進一步改善，訂單出貨比也呈現正向趨勢。

Importantly, bookings strength was driven by industrial and automotive, our two largest end markets.

重要的是，訂單量的強勁成長是由我們最大的兩個終端市場——工業和汽車所推動的。

Given this trend and the exciting product cycles Vince described, I'm confident we will return to long-term model growth in 2025 and believe we are well positioned to capture additional upside should macro conditions improve.

鑑於這一趨勢和文斯描述的令人興奮的產品週期，我相信我們將在 2025 年恢復長期模型增長，並相信如果宏觀條件改善，我們將有能力獲得額外的上行空間。

Over to you, Mike.

交給你了，麥克。

Thanks, Rich.

謝謝，里奇。

Let's get to the Q&A session.

讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) With that, queue our first question, please.

（操作員指示）請對第一個問題進行排隊。

(Operator Instructions) Joseph Moore, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的約瑟夫·摩爾。

Great.

偉大的。

Wonder if you could talk about the puts and takes in the auto market.

想知道您是否可以談談汽車市場的優缺點。

China seems to be the strongest region.

中國似乎是最強的地區。

Can you talk about how that affects you guys if there is an ongoing shift in the center of gravity towards China?

您能談談如果重心持續向中國轉移，這將如何影響您嗎？

Does that have any impact on pricing margin or any potential for you guys?

這對你們的定價利潤率或潛力有影響嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Joe, I'll take that one.

喬，我想要這個。

This is Rich.

這是里奇。

So let me give you a little color on what we're seeing in auto.

那麼讓我來幫你稍微介紹一下我們在汽車領域看到的情況。

Starting with Q1, revenue came in better than expected, driven by Asia, which we've talked about continued strength in China.

從第一季開始，營收就好於預期，這得益於亞洲市場的推動，我們已經談到了中國市場持續強勁的成長動能。

As we've talked about in our recent calls, we have flagged that we have stronger share and content position at major Chinese EV OEMs with multiple products, again, including our audio and video connectivity solutions, functionally safe power and BMS.

正如我們在最近的電話會議中談到的那樣，我們已經表明，我們在中國主要電動汽車原始設備製造商中擁有更強的份額和內容地位，擁有多種產品，包括我們的音訊和視訊連接解決方案、功能安全電源和 BMS。

And this is coming through in the results, and we expect it to continue into Q2.

這已在結果中反映出來，我們預計這種情況將持續到第二季​​。

As for the impact of a change in center, we continue to see strong results, right, from a three straight quarters of double-digit growth in China being led by auto, in addition, from what we can talk about this, we've seen growth in the other parts of the China business, but the auto is continuing to lead.

至於中心變更的影響，我們繼續看到強勁的業績，對吧，中國業務連續三個季度實現兩位數增長，其中汽車業務是主要推動力 此外，從我們可以談論的情況來看，我們看到中國業務的其他部分也在增長，但汽車業務繼續保持領先。

Yes.

是的。

I've maintained for a long time, Joe, that as long as there is a market for high-performance technologies, that ADI's technologies would continue to be relevant, and that is the case.

喬，我一直堅持認為，只要高性能技術有市場，ADI 的技術就會繼續具有相關性，事實也是如此。

We see it in automotive.

我們在汽車領域也看到過這種情況。

We see it in the industrial sector, the cloud, communications, and we're getting well paid for the quality of the technologies that we're bringing.

我們在工業領域、雲端運算和通訊領域都看到了這一點，而我們所帶來的技術的品質也獲得了豐厚的報酬。

So it's clearly a competitive market, particularly at the kind of mid-low ends with indigenous suppliers coming on stream.

所以這顯然是一個競爭激烈的市場，特別是在中低端市場，本土供應商不斷出現。

But given the high-performance [thrust] in our portfolio, we're getting rewarded for the capabilities that we bring at the system level for our customers.

但考慮到我們產品組合的高性能，我們為客戶在系統層面帶來的功能獲得了回報。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya 的美國銀行證券。

Rich, just to clarify, what is that long-term model growth that you expect to return to this year?

Rich，我只是想澄清一下，您預計今年的長期模型成長將達到多少？

And then Vince, my question is for you.

那麼文斯，我的問題是問你的。

You mentioned that the inventory levels have largely normalized.

您提到庫存水準已基本恢復正常。

Is that at distributors?

那是在經銷商嗎？

Is that at OEMs also?

OEM 也是這樣嗎？

Does it apply to all end markets or mostly to industrial.

它是否適用於所有終端市場或主要適用於工業。

Basically, how does that inform us about how ADI can feel about demand visibility and growth over the next handful of quarters?

基本上，這如何告訴我們 ADI 對未來幾季需求可見度和成長的感受？

Yes.

是的。

Maybe I can take the second part of the question first, Vivek.

也許我可以先回答問題的第二部分，維韋克。

So we are seeing the normalization across the direct as well as distribution channels.

因此，我們看到直接通路和分銷管道都趨於正常化。

And in pretty much every part of our business, including -- we were very, very encouraged by the recovery in industrial bookings.

在我們業務的幾乎每個部分，包括—我們對工業訂單的復甦感到非常鼓舞。

And that's a very important part of ADI's business.

這是 ADI 業務中非常重要的一部分。

It's -- yes, its peak, it was 50%, a little 50% of the total ADI revenue stream.

是的，它的峰值佔 ADI 總收入的 50%，大概是 50%。

So we're seeing -- we monitor also, by the way, customer inventories, our top customers.

所以我們看到——順便說一下，我們還監控客戶庫存，以及我們的主要客戶。

So we see normalization across segments across customers, both big and small.

因此，我們看到不同客戶群（無論大小）都呈現正常化。

We've also, by the way, kind of a bellwether for the general base of customers outside the top few hundreds would be our mass market or a broad market.

順便說一句，對於前幾百位的客戶之外的廣大客戶群來說，我們也是一種領頭羊，那就是我們的大眾市場或廣大市場。

We've also started to see recovery there.

我們也開始看到那裡的復甦。

Yes.

是的。

And Vivek, when I talk about the long-term model, I'm talking about the [ public around the ] 10%, although I think as we've talked about as the macros turn, I think there's opportunity for us to capture even more growth than that.

維韋克，當我談到長期模型時，我指的是 10% 左右的公眾，儘管我認為，正如我們所討論的，隨著宏觀經濟的轉變，我認為我們還有機會獲得比這更多的增長。

I think your one part, three part question, Vivek, talked about what we think from here kind of grow at the back half of this year.

我認為，維韋克，你提出的分為三部分的問題談到了我們認為今年下半年將會出現怎樣的增長。

I think what you mean with that is how do you think about seasonality as you get to 3Q and 4Q.

我想您的意思是，當您進入第三季和第四季時，您如何看待季節性。

Again, this is not guidance for 3Q, but I'll give you kind of what we see as trends typically over the last 10 years for our third quarter.

再次強調，這不是對第三季的指引，但我會給你我們所看到的過去 10 年第三季的典型趨勢。

In our third quarter, industrial auto and comps are usually flat, plus or minus a little, depending on where you are in the cycle.

在第三季度，工業汽車和同店商品通常持平，略有增減，取決於您所處的周期階段。

Given what Rich was saying about industry normalizing, new wins coming on, I think those markets should be flat to up.

考慮到里奇所說的產業正常化、新勝利即將到來，我認為這些市場應該持平或上漲。

So I think on the higher end of what normal seasonality is for those businesses.

所以我認為這些企業的正常季節性處於較高水準。

On the consumer side, until we start [your] holiday builds, which means you start growing 5% or 10% in 3Q.

在消費者方面，直到我們開始[您的]假期建設，這意味著您在第三季開始成長 5% 或 10%。

Now obviously, a lot of macro crosscurrents, really, like the [content uncertainty] out there on the macro side, which could be [ in ] second half.

顯然，現在確實存在著許多宏觀逆流，例如宏觀方面的[內容不確定性]，這可能會在下半年出現。

So we'll update you in 90 days [what] we really think about 3Q.

因此，我們將在 90 天內向您更新我們對第三季的真實想法。

Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

托爾·思文伯格（Tore Svanberg），Stifel 公司。

I had a question for you, Vince.

我有個問題想問你，文斯。

ADI has a pretty unique position because of your hybrid manufacturing model.

由於採用了混合製造模式，ADI 擁有非常獨特的地位。

And I was just wondering, given all the political turmoil, the geopolitical turmoil that's going on right now, how are you thinking strategically about that hybrid model?

我只是想知道，考慮到目前發生的所有政治動盪和地緣政治動盪，您如何從戰略上思考這種混合模式？

Because obviously, you're working with a very important partner in Asia, but then obviously you also do some of your own internal manufacturing.

因為很明顯，您正在與亞洲一個非常重要的合作夥伴合作，但顯然您也進行一些自己的內部製造。

So how are you thinking about how this is going to play out over the next few years?

那麼您認為未來幾年這種情況將會如何發展呢？

Thanks, Tore.

謝謝，托爾。

Well, I think, in times of great turbulence, diversity is a great benefit, diversity of markets, diversity of products, diversity of customers and geographies.

嗯，我認為，在動盪時期，多樣性是一種巨大的優勢，包括市場的多樣性、產品的多樣性、客戶和地理的多樣性。

So I think I feel good in terms of our ability with that diversity to solve two problems essentially.

因此，我認為我們有能力利用這種多樣性從根本上解決兩個問題。

One is diversity gives us optionality, but it also gives us resiliency.

一是多元化給了我們選擇權，但也給了我們彈性。

And by the kind of end of '26 and the early '27, we will have secured at least dual sourcing for the entire product chain of ADI.

到 26 年底和 27 年初，我們將確保 ADI 整個產品鏈至少能達到雙重採購。

So about 95% of the products will have at least dual sources, and we've obviously desensitized geographic centricity over the last few years.

因此，大約 95％ 的產品至少會有雙重來源，而且我們在過去幾年中顯然已經降低了地理中心性的敏感度。

We've invested in our fabs internally in America and Europe.

我們已經在美國和歐洲內部投資了晶圓廠。

And we've worked with our partners as well to get at least two geographical sources for the products that we procure from our partners externally.

我們也與合作夥伴合作，為從外部合作夥伴採購的產品找到至少兩個地理來源。

So I think we're in a good position as a company to make sure that overall, we have internally got twice the capacity we had at the start of the pandemic.

因此，我認為，作為一家公司，我們處於有利地位，可以確保我們內部的整體產能是疫情開始時的兩倍。

And as I said, we've secured also additional supply in new sources, new fabs with existing partners.

正如我所說的，我們也與現有合作夥伴一起從新來源、新晶圓廠獲得了額外的供應。

So I think we're in a very, very good position to whether whatever turbulence might come our direction.

因此我認為，無論遇到什麼動盪，我們都處於非常有利的位置。

Chris Danely, Citi.

花旗銀行的克里斯丹尼利 (Chris Danely)。

I guess just to dig into the industrial strength.

我猜只是為了挖掘工業實力。

Can you just talk about where that's coming from?

你能講一下這是怎麼回事嗎？

Is this mostly inventory replenishment?

這主要是庫存補充嗎？

Is it mostly improved demand?

主要是需求改善了嗎？

Is it both?

兩者都有嗎？

And then how did bookings trend during the quarter?

那麼本季的預訂趨勢如何？

Was the linearity pretty steady?

線性是否相當穩定？

Or was there a spike?

或有一個峰值？

Or just a little more color there would be great.

或者只要多一點顏色就更好了。

Sure, Chris.

當然，克里斯。

I'll jump in on that.

我會參與其中。

So on the industrial, if we take a step back, we've grown this business now sequentially for three straight quarters, off of what we said was our trough in Q2.

因此，就工業而言，如果我們退一步來看，我們已經連續三個季度實現業務連續成長，擺脫了我們所說的第二季的低谷。

And then as for Q2, we actually expect industrial to be the fastest-growing market.

至於第二季度，我們實際上預計工業將成為成長最快的市場。

So we feel pretty good that our recovery is taking shape and really could accelerate if the macro improve.

因此，我們感覺很好，我們的復甦正在形成，如果宏觀經濟好轉，復甦可能會加速。

For Q1 specifically, and we've talked about this in a couple of quarters, we saw continued strength in ADAS and the automatic test equipment.

具體來說，對於第一季而言，我們已經在幾個季度中討論過這個問題，我們看到 ADAS 和自動測試設備繼續保持強勁勢頭。

And then what we started to see from a positive perspective is stabilization across automation, health care and energy, which I think has been important.

然後我們開始從積極的角度看到自動化、醫療保健和能源領域的穩定，我認為這很重要。

And then in Q1, one of the things that we've talked a bunch about on prior calls is watching for the pickup in the broad market, and we started to see some of that.

然後在第一季度，我們在之前的電話會議上討論過很多的事情之一就是專注於大盤的回暖，我們開始看到一些這樣的情況。

In fact, the pickup in the broad market drove much of the upside relative to our initial expectations, which gives us confidence to begin shipping in line with end demand.

事實上，相對於我們最初的預期，大盤的回溫推動了大部分的上漲，這使我們有信心開始根據最終需求出貨。

So if you think about -- we've talked about in prior calls, that we took a significant amount of inventory out of the channel during 2024 of about $300 million.

所以如果你想想——我們在之前的電話會議中談到過，我們在 2024 年從渠道中撤出了大量庫存，約 3 億美元。

Most of that impacted the industrial market.

其中大部分影響了工業市場。

So as we look at our growth trajectory, shipping more to sell-through into the channel, will be a tailwind for industrial as well.

因此，當我們回顧我們的成長軌跡時，將更多貨物運送到通路進行銷售，也將為工業帶來順風。

Yes.

是的。

As you know, the industrial sector is largely served through the distribution channel.

眾所周知，工業領域主要透過分銷管道提供服務。

So with leading the serve, demand recovering, I think all -- both of those two concurrent streams are tailwinds for the company.

因此，隨著服務的領先和需求的恢復，我認為這兩個並發的趨勢對公司來說都是順風。

Yes.

是的。

On the booking side, bookings have improved industrial in 1Q versus 4Q pretty much across all the areas with the biggest strength, obviously, in ATE and ADAS as we talked about.

在預訂方面，與第四季度相比，第一季工業預訂量有所提高，幾乎所有領域的預訂量都有所提高，其中最強勁的顯然是我們剛才提到的ATE和ADAS。

And we think industrial will be our fastest growth market in 2Q and that's supported by the bookings.

我們認為工業將成為我們第二季度成長最快的市場，這得到了訂單量的支持。

Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.

約書亞·布查爾特（Joshua Buchalter），TD Cowen。

I wanted to follow up on the previous one.

我想跟進上一個問題。

I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks, inventory levels in the channel moved down.

我想您在準備好的評論中提到過，渠道中的庫存水準已經下降。

And I think they entered the quarter already below your seven to eight weeks target.

我認為他們進入該季度時已經低於你設定的七到八週的目標。

Does either the April quarter guidance or the fiscal 2025 initial outlook of being in your target range include any sort of channel refill.

您的目標範圍內的 4 月份季度指引或 2025 財年初步展望是否包括任何形式的通路補充。

And I guess, what signals do you guys need to see before you would want to more clearly get back into that seven- to eight-week range?

我想，在你們想要更明確地回到七到八週的範圍之前，你們需要看到什麼訊號？

Yes.

是的。

So.

所以。

Go ahead.

前進。

So the current guide for Q2 has us shipping to sell-through, so not adding into the channel.

因此，第二季的當前指南讓我們透過運輸來銷售，因此不會添加到通路中。

And I will tell you for me, for the benchmark, and we talk to our distribution partners pretty regularly is if we're fulfilling customer requirements and we're not getting any escalations, we're feeling pretty comfortable right now operating below the seven weeks -- seven to eight weeks we've had historically.

我會告訴你，對我來說，作為基準，我們會定期與我們的分銷合作夥伴進行溝通，如果我們滿足了客戶的要求並且沒有出現任何升級情況，那麼我們現在就感覺很舒服，運營時間低於七週——過去的七到八週。

Balance that out, we're carrying a bit more inventory on our own books which gives us some flexibility, particularly given the amount of the inventory we're carrying in die bank, which allows us to be quicker to respond.

平衡一下，我們在自己的帳簿上存放了更多的庫存，這給了我們一些靈活性，特別是考慮到我們在銀行存放的庫存數量，這使我們能夠更快地做出反應。

So near to medium term, I don't expect that we would be adding back to channel but we certainly do not want to go any lower.

因此，從中期來看，我預計我們不會回到頻道，但我們肯定不想再走低。

Yes, I think just to add a bit of color to what Richard said as well.

是的，我想只是為了給理查說的話增添一點色彩。

The centralization of inventory management, I think, has served our customers very well.

我認為庫存管理的集中化為我們的客戶提供了良好的服務。

Customers of all sizes over the past, what is essentially now five years of the old cycle.

過去各種規模的客戶，現在基本上是五年一個週期。

So we'll continue doing that, and that will be a critical guide as we think about how we modulate channel inventories over time.

因此，我們會繼續這樣做，這將是我們思考如何隨著時間的推移調整通路庫存的關鍵指南。

Very helpful color.

非常有用的顏色。

Congrats on the results in the cocktail of uncertainty.

恭喜您在充滿不確定性的環境中所取得的成果。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Christopher Rolland, Susquehanna.

克里斯多福羅蘭，薩斯奎哈納。

Mine is around two very specific opportunities that you've talked about in the past.

我的機會與你過去談到的兩個非常具體的機會有關。

One is optical connectivity and then the other is AI power.

一是光纖連接，另一個是人工智慧電源。

If you have any developments in those products or markets, would love to know those or maybe it's just playing out like you thought it would, but would love to know how interest, orders, et cetera, are going for those products.

如果您在這些產品或市場方面有任何進展，我很想了解這些情況，或者可能只是像您想像的那樣發展，但我很想了解這些產品的興趣、訂單等情況。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, I'd say, first and foremost, our opportunity pipeline has been growing steadily in this AI-driven infrastructure world.

嗯，我想說，首先，在這個由人工智慧驅動的基礎設施世界中，我們的機會管道一直在穩步成長。

And we've been a long-term player in this electro optical interface category, where we provide these very precise high compute throughput control systems for stabilizing the electro-optical modems.

我們一直是這個電光介面領域的長期參與者，我們提供非常精確的高運算吞吐量控制系統來穩定電光調變解調器。

And we've just introduced our 1.6 terabit, which is the very much the benchmark for throughput in the systems today.

我們剛剛推出了 1.6 太比特，這是當今系統吞吐量的基準。

Of course, those speeds will continue to increase.

當然，這些速度還會繼續增加。

The sophistication of what we build will continue to grow as well.

我們所建造的東西的複雜程度也將繼續增長。

So that's been a very good business, a high-growth business for ADI now for many, many years, and it predates the AI build-out of AI infrastructure.

所以這對 ADI 來說是一項非常好的業務，多年來一直是一項高成長業務，它早於人工智慧基礎設施的建設。

Our power technologies really struggle in two different areas.

我們的電力技術在兩個不同領域確實遇到了困難。

One is, if you like, the power control systems that are important for the overall health of a data center at kind of the board level, the server level.

一是電源控制系統，它對於資料中心在電路板層級、伺服器層級的整體健康非常重要。

And the other is -- and a good example, by the way, of that park control, these hot swapping, reset generators and so on, these very, very tough analog problems that need to be solved.

另一個是 — — 順便說一下，一個很好的例子就是公園控制、熱插拔、重置發電機等等，這些都是需要解決的非常非常棘手的模擬問題。

The second part of the power story is the delivery of energy to the GPUs, the chip systems themselves.

電力故事的第二部分是向 GPU 即晶片系統本身輸送能量。

And we're going to production in the second half of this year with a vertical power technique with one of the big hyperscalers.

我們將在今年下半年與一家大型超大規模生產企業合作，採用垂直電源技術進行生產。

And we have other designs in train that will come on stream as well, I believe, in the '26 period.

而且我相信，我們還有其他設計也將在 1926 年投入生產。

Fantastic color there.

那裡的色彩很奇妙。

And maybe just kind of playing into these kind of new products that are emerging here.

或許只是為了迎合這裡新出現的這類新產品。

Are there any other new products to call out, new customers, new end markets any of these kind of free options as I like to call them, that are emerging for your company.

貴公司是否有其他值得關注的新產品、新客戶、新終端市場（我喜歡稱之為任何此類免費選項）？

And anything you can point to, anything new that maybe you haven't had before any new opportunities?

您能指出什麼嗎？

Depends on how far into the future you want to go but let me give you a couple of real-time examples here.

取決於你想要去多遠的未來，但讓我在這裡給你幾個即時的例子。

I mentioned in the prepared remarks, the conversions of wellness-based health care solutions with the consumer sector, we see that the interest in building those systems out is becoming, I would say, very, very active, we're well positioned as a company because we've been building the sensory and signal processing technologies for a long, long time.

我在準備好的發言中提到，基於健康的醫療保健解決方案與消費領域的轉化，我們看到人們對構建這些系統的興趣正變得非常非常活躍，我們作為一家公司處於有利地位，因為我們已經構建感測和信號處理技術很長很長時間了。

So I would call that out as an area with a good spectrum of customers across many geographies and many, many different types of health care modalities that need to be measured at the clinical grade-level incident , the areas like continuous glucose monitoring and being able to do that in a closed loop system, both the input and the output.

因此，我認為這個領域在許多地區都有廣泛的客戶，並且需要在臨床級別事件進行測量的許多不同類型的醫療保健模式，例如連續血糖監測，並且能夠在閉環系統中進行測量，包括輸入和輸出。

So I think that is an area that we're excited about, but we have a lot of good technologies that are being deployed at faster rates into that area.

所以我認為這是我們感到興奮的領域，但是我們有很多優秀的技術正在以更快的速度部署到該領域。

And if you want to go really into the future, there is life beginning to appear in the whole quantum computing world.

如果你真的想走向未來，整個量子運算世界就會開始出現生命。

And we're at the early stages of building control systems, if you like precision control systems for these very, very complex computing elements.

如果您喜歡針對這些非常非常複雜的計算元素的精確控制系統，那麼我們正處於建立控制系統的早期階段。

(Operator Instructions) Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler.

（操作員指示）Harsh Kumar，Piper Sandler。

I just wanted to hit upon the call for the bottom.

我只是想觸及底部的呼喚。

I guess you're calling that I guess what is the confidence level that this is not a head fake?

我猜你會說這不是假動作，那信心程度如何？

I know you're talking about increased orders and normalization of inventory, but there's a lot of geopolitical movement.

我知道您在談論訂單增加和庫存正常化，但是地緣政治動向很多。

There's a lot of tariffs.

有很多關稅。

Help us understand why the conference level is so high that we've reached the bottom, and this isn't just some kind of head fake.

幫助我們理解為什麼會議等級如此之高，以至於我們已經跌到了谷底，而這不僅僅是某種假象。

Well, I think first and foremost, we have a lot of conversations and a lot of customers.

嗯，我認為首先，我們有很多對話，也有很多客戶。

We have tens of thousands of customers in our portfolio.

我們的投資組合中有數萬名客戶。

We pay attention to the signal that matters to us most is sell-through.

我們關注的最重要的訊號是銷售率。

So POS is how we -- that's where we focus, and that POS signal is how we plan our supply at ADI, how we run our business and run our supply system.

所以 POS 就是我們關注的重點，POS 訊號就是我們如何在 ADI 規劃供應，如何運作我們的業務和運作我們的供應系統。

So that's first and foremost.

所以這是首要的。

I think we are seeing the stabilization in the business and growth in certain areas right across the spectrum.

我認為我們看到了業務的穩定和整個範圍內某些領域的成長。

And then there is -- geographically, there is a diversity of progress as well, I'd say Japan is most muted.

而且從地理上看，進步也有差異，我認為日本最緩慢。

America and China are strongest.

美國和中國是最強大的。

I would say Asia Pacific is strong and Europe is somewhere between where Japan is and where the rest are so -- but that's essentially how we view the work.

我想說亞太地區實力很強，歐洲處於日本和其他地區之間——但這基本上就是我們對工作的看法。

As we said in the prepared remarks, what's incalculable here in our thinking is the effect of any potential geopolitical turmoil, trade war and so on and so forth.

正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們認為無法估量的是任何潛在的地緣政治動盪、貿易戰等的影響。

So that, I think, will be the governor ultimately during this year as to the rate of recovery.

因此，我認為，這將最終決定今年的復甦速度。

But I have a strong conviction that we're in a new cycle in the semi sector and certainly in ADI's business.

但我堅信，半導體產業和 ADI 的業務都正處於一個新周期。

We're going to our last question, please.

我們接下來要問最後一個問題。

Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

托爾·思文伯格（Tore Svanberg），Stifel 公司。

Yes, I just had a follow-up on the conviction in growth there.

是的，我剛剛對那裡的成長信念進行了跟踪。

Typically, when we go through these cycles, I think customers, they sort of hold -- they hold off buying new products until sort of the older products have cleared out.

通常，當我們經歷這些週期時，我認為客戶會推遲購買新產品，直到舊產品清倉為止。

And I'm just wondering if there's some of that going on.

我只是想知道是否發生了一些這樣的事情。

I mean, I guess that really relates to your design win conversion rate.

我的意思是，我猜這確實與您的設計成功轉換率有關。

So any comments you can make on that conversion rate really starting to play out would be really helpful.

因此，您對轉換率真正開始發揮作用的任何評論都將非常有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

Well, for example, Tore, the strength we're seeing in ATE markets in the automotive market, for example, in areas like new data center modalities those areas are largely driven by a lot of new products.

嗯，例如，Tore，我們看到汽車市場中的 ATE 市場表現強勁，例如在新資料中心模式等領域，這些領域很大程度上是由大量新產品驅動的。

So I would say there's three examples of where new products are making a huge difference.

所以我想說有三個例子可以說明新產品正在發揮巨大的作用。

In fact, there are also -- with each new generation, we're capturing more ASP.

事實上，隨著每一代新產品的推出，我們都在取得更高的 ASP。

So we've often shared with you our famous vintage chart, which shows the age of the portfolio we measure very, very carefully within that vintage chart, the contribution of newer products within a 3- and 10-year period as to what's going on.

因此，我們經常與大家分享我們著名的年份圖表，該圖表顯示了投資組合的年齡，我們在該年份圖表中非常非常仔細地測量了該投資組合的年齡，以及 3 年和 10 年期間新產品的貢獻。

But I can tell you, the conversion rate, the introduction of new parts and the capturing of opportunity with new parts is strong new products and new solutions.

但我可以告訴你，轉換率、新零件的推出以及利用新零件抓住機會就是強大的新產品和新解決方案。

And obviously, we've got also a very strong franchise.

顯然，我們也擁有非常強大的特許經營權。

Our legacy products tend to get pulled by these new anchor products that we're building.

我們的傳統產品往往會受到我們正在開發的這些新主力產品的拉動。

So I'd say, overall, I'm pleased with the effectiveness of our R&D spend and how we're capturing and creating new markets and new applications and opportunities.

因此，我想說，總的來說，我對我們的研發支出的有效性以及我們如何佔領和創造新市場、新應用和新機會感到滿意。

And we have one more question from Joe Moore, I believe.

我相信喬·摩爾還給我們提出了一個問題。

I'm showing no further questions at this time.

我目前沒有其他問題。

All right.

好的。

No problem.

沒問題。

I think we answered all the questions then.

我想我們已經回答了所有問題。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

A copy of the transcript will be available on our website.

成績單的副本將在我們的網站上提供。

Thanks for joining and your continued interest in Analog Devices.

感謝您的加入以及對 ADI 公司的持續關注。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call.

今天的 ADI 公司電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。