亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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our expectations only as a date of this call. We undertake no obligation to update the statements except as required by law. Revenue, adjusted gross margin, operating and non-operating expenses, operating margin, tax rate, EPS and free cash flow in our comment today will be on non-GAAP basis, which excludes special items. When comparing our results to historic performance. Special items are also excluded from prior periods. Reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's release.

我們的期望僅作為本次電話會議的日期。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新聲明的義務。我們今天評論中的收入、調整後毛利率、營業和非營業費用、營業利潤率、稅率、每股收益和自由現金流將基於非公認會計準則（Non-GAAP）基礎，不包括特殊項目。將我們的結果與歷史表現進行比較時。前期的特殊項目也被排除在外。今天的新聞稿中包含了這些非公認會計準則衡量指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量指標的調節以及有關我們非公認會計準則衡量指標的其他資訊。

And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche.

接下來，我會將其交給 ADI 執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche。

Thanks very much, Mike, and a very good morning to you all. A stronger demand for high-performance product portfolio and skillful execution resulted in third quarter revenue of more than $2.3 billion, operating margin north of 41% and EPS of $1.58, all above the midpoint of our outlook. These favorable results combined with improved customer inventory levels and order momentum across most of our markets increased my confidence that our second quarter marks the cyclical bottom for ADI.

非常感謝，麥克，祝大家早安。對高性能產品組合和熟練執行的強勁需求導致第三季收入超過 23 億美元，營業利潤率超過 41%，每股收益為 1.58 美元，均高於我們預期的中點。這些有利的業績加上我們大多數市場的客戶庫存水準和訂單動能的改善，增強了我的信心，即我們的第二季標誌著 ADI 的周期性底部。

My optimism remains guarded. However, this challenging economic and geopolitical conditions are limiting the sharper recovery. We continue to balance near-term fiscal discipline with strategic investments in our long-term growth initiatives, positioning ADI to capitalize on the extraordinary opportunities that we see ahead.

我的樂觀情緒仍然保持謹慎。然而，這種充滿挑戰的經濟和地緣政治條件限制了更快速的復甦。我們繼續平衡近期財政紀律與長期成長計畫中的策略投資，使 ADI 能夠充分利用我們未來看到的非凡機會。

Now I'd like to draw attention to our industrial end market, which is our largest, most diverse and most profitable business, generating durable revenue streams that last close the two decades on average. As our business begins to recover from the pandemic's volatility, we're excited about the tremendous long-term growth opportunities of the industrial market.

現在我想提請大家注意我們的工業終端市場，這是我們最大、最多樣化、利潤最高的業務，產生的持久收入流平均可持續近二十年。隨著我們的業務開始從大流行的波動中恢復，我們對工業市場的巨大長期成長機會感到興奮。

We offer our customers an unparalleled suite of high-performance solutions, stretching from intended to bid, sensor to cloud, and nanowatts to kilowatts. Our extensive technology portfolio, combined with our deep domain expertise and engineering muscle, has enabled us to secure leading positions across the most attractive industrial sectors.

我們為客戶提供無與倫比的高性能解決方案套件，從意向到投標，從感測器到雲，從納瓦到千瓦。我們廣泛的技術組合，加上深厚的領域專業知識和工程實力，使我們能夠在最具吸引力的工業領域中佔據領先地位。

Now, with growing digital software and algorithm capabilities, augmenting our cutting-edge Analog portfolio, ADI is strongly positioned to solve our customers' most difficult challenges in factory and process automation, energy efficiency, secure connectivity, and many, many more.

現在，隨著數位軟體和演算法能力的不斷增強，我們尖端的類比產品組合不斷增強，ADI 已具備強大的優勢來解決客戶在工廠和製程自動化、能源效率、安全連接等方面面臨的最困難的挑戰。

To illustrate the power and potential of our industrial franchise, let me share with you a few examples of how our recent innovations are unlocking new revenue streams and positioning us for strong growth in the years ahead. For example, our Instrumentation and Test business, which includes scientific instruments, electronic test and measurement and automated test equipment is essential to the important scientific and technological advancements of the digital era.

為了說明我們工業特許經營的力量和潛力，讓我與您分享一些例子，說明我們最近的創新如何釋放新的收入來源，並使我們在未來幾年實現強勁增長。例如，我們的儀器和測試業務，包括科學儀器、電子測試和測量以及自動化測試設備，對於數位時代的重要科技進步至關重要。

Within automated test equipment, for example, our next-generation solutions increased channel density and throughput while reducing energy consumption by up to 30% per system. These are crucial parameters for testing complex, high-performance compute GPUs and high-bandwidth memory systems for AI. As the AI infrastructure build-out remains a priority for global hyperscalers, we expect growth to continue into 2025 and indeed well beyond.

例如，在自動化測試設備中，我們的下一代解決方案提高了通道密度和吞吐量，同時將每個系統的能耗降低高達 30%。這些是測試複雜的高效能運算 GPU 和 AI 高頻寬記憶體系統的關鍵參數。由於人工智慧基礎設施建設仍然是全球超大規模企業的優先事項，我們預計成長將持續到 2025 年，甚至更久。

Turning now to aerospace and defense, which has been our most resilient business during this downturn, ADI's domain expertise and high-performance portfolio across RF and microwave, high speed and precision converters, power and MEMS uniquely positions us to deliver complete edge solutions, offering our customers scale, velocity and lower total cost of ownership.

現在轉向航空航太和國防，這是我們在這次經濟低迷時期最具彈性的業務，ADI 在射頻和微波、高速和精密轉換器、電源和MEMS 領域的專業知識和高性能產品組合使我們能夠提供完整的邊緣解決方案，我們的客戶規模、速度和整體擁有成本更低。

As an example, we're building upon our programmable Apollo Signal Chain platform today to create full software-defined RF communications and sensor systems, which has the potential to increase our SAM by 5x in commercial, defense and aerospace communication systems. Indeed, we see a path to double-digit revenue growth in this sector in 2025, fueled by several high-value design wins that are going to production.

舉例來說，我們今天正在可編程 Apollo 訊號鏈平台的基礎上創建完整的軟體定義射頻通訊和感測器系統，這有可能將我們的商業、國防和航空航太通訊系統中的 SAM 提高 5 倍。事實上，在幾項即將投入生產的高價值設計成果的推動下，我們預計到 2025 年該產業將實現兩位數的收入成長。

In automation, though we've seen a slow recovery to date, we remain strongly confident in its future growth potential, as the benefits of increased productivity are ever more clear. Customers are prioritizing enhanced digitalization and IT-OT integration on the factory floors. Their deployments of in-line instrumentation and advanced robotics are driving the need for more sensing edge processing, secure connectivity and power management.

在自動化領域，儘管迄今為止我們看到了緩慢的復甦，但我們對其未來的成長潛力仍然充滿信心，因為生產力提高的好處越來越明顯。客戶優先考慮工廠車間的增強數位化和 IT-OT 整合。他們對線上儀器和先進機器人技術的部署推動了對更多感測邊緣處理、安全連接和電源管理的需求。

Within robotics, we're seeing a progression from fixed our machines to autonomous and mobile robots to eventually humanoid robots. This evolution creates additional opportunities for our precision signal chain franchise and censor and connectivity of motion control subsystems with fully isolated and efficient power solutions can drive content from hundreds of dollars in robots today to thousands in autonomous and humanoid robots.

在機器人技術領域，我們看到了從固定機器到自主移動機器人到最終人形機器人的發展。這種演變為我們的精密訊號鏈特許經營權和審查器以及運動控制子系統的連接性和完全隔離且高效的電源解決方案創造了更多機會，可以將內容從當今數百美元的機器人驅動到數千美元的自主和人形機器人。

What is additionally exciting about these advances is their broad applicability beyond factories such as surgical robots and imaging systems in healthcare. ADI's products have the potential to dramatically improve a surgeons' effectiveness through a more precise surgical experience with lower latency connectivity. Additionally, patients gain the potential benefits of shorter hospital stays and fewer complications.

這些進步的另一個令人興奮之處在於它們在工廠之外的廣泛適用性，例如手術機器人和醫療保健中的成像系統。 ADI 的產品有潛力透過更精確的手術體驗和更低的延遲連接來顯著提高外科醫生的效率。此外，患者還可以獲得更短的住院時間和更少的併發症的潛在好處。

The evolution in robotics is expected to unlock billions of dollars of potential opportunity for our high-performance Analog, mixed-signal power connectivity and sensing solutions. We see the potential for a doubling of our robotics revenue in the years ahead.

機器人技術的發展預計將為我們的高性能模擬、混合訊號電源連接和感測解決方案釋放數十億美元的潛在機會。我們看到未來幾年我們的機器人收入有可能翻倍。

Turning now to energy transmission and distribution, our customers are modernizing and digitalizing the electrical grid to respond to exponentially accelerating energy demand driven in part by the proliferation of electric transportation and rapid AI adoption. This process is resulting in a grid that is distributed, dynamic and bidirectional, a paradigm shift from the past model of linear stable supply. We are working with traditional suppliers and disruptors to enable the necessary intelligence for the new grid from decentralized power plants to the distribution edge.

現在轉向能源傳輸和分配，我們的客戶正在對電網進行現代化和數位化，以應對指數增長的能源需求，部分原因是電動交通的激增和人工智慧的快速採用。這個過程產生了一個分散式、動態和雙向的電網，這是對過去線性穩定供應模型的典範轉移。我們正在與傳統供應商和顛覆者合作，為從分散式發電廠到配電邊緣的新電網提供必要的智慧。

We're leveraging our Analog and algorithm capabilities in cutting edge energy monitoring and management solutions. Additionally, our battery management technology increases capacity and improves energy utilization in the grids renewable energy storage systems. This reimagined intelligent grid of the future has the potential to expand our SAM by over $10 billion and creates tailwinds for our energy franchise for many years to come.

我們正在利用我們的模擬和演算法功能來開發尖端的能源監控和管理解決方案。此外，我們的電池管理技術可增加電網再生能源儲存系統的容量並提高能源利用率。這種重新構想的未來智慧電網有潛力將我們的 SAM 擴大超過 100 億美元，並在未來許多年為我們的能源特許經營創造順風。

Given the synergies across our industrial portfolio, our pace of innovation and the emerging signs of market recovery, we're optimistic for our industrial business that has turned the corner and '25 will be a robust growth year.

鑑於我們工業產品組合的協同效應、我們的創新步伐以及市場復甦的新跡象，我們對已經渡過難關的工業業務持樂觀態度，25 年將是強勁增長的一年。

So in closing, our investments in high-performance Analog solutions are enabling us to intersect with and leverage the numerous concurrent secular trends that transcend the business cycle and will propel us into the future. Our commitment to our customer success and to impactful innovation will be the path that carries us there, ultimately increasing long-term shareholder value.

因此，總而言之，我們對高效能模擬解決方案的投資使我們能夠交叉並利用眾多超越商業週期的並發長期趨勢，並將推動我們走向未來。我們對客戶成功和有影響力的創新的承諾將是我們實現這一目標的道路，最終增加長期股東價值。

aAnd so with that, I'm going to turn it over to Rich, who'll take you through the numbers.

a因此，我將把它交給里奇，他會帶你了解這些數字。

Thank you, Vince. Let me add my welcome to our third quarter earnings call. Third quarter revenue of $2.31 billion came in above the midpoint of our outlook, finishing up 7% sequentially and down 25% year over year. Industrial represented 46% of revenue in the third quarter, finishing up 6% sequentially and down 37% year over year. Every major application increased sequentially except for automation, which declined at a much slower pace than it had in previous quarters.

謝謝你，文斯。讓我對第三季財報電話會議表示歡迎。第三季營收為 23.1 億美元，高於我們預期的中點，季增 7%，年減 25%。工業佔第三季營收的 46%，季增 6%，年減 37%。除了自動化之外，所有主要應用都連續成長，其下降速度比前幾季慢得多。

Automotive represented 29% of revenue, finishing flat sequentially and down 8% year over year. We saw continued double-digit growth year over year for our industry-leading connectivity and functionally safe power platforms. Conversely, automotive production cuts are extending inventory digestion across customers, particularly impacting our legacy automotive and electrification businesses.

汽車業務佔營收的 29%，與上一季持平，年減 8%。我們業界領先的連接和功能安全電源平台較去年同期持續實現兩位數成長。相反，汽車減產正在擴大客戶的庫存消化，特別是影響我們傳統的汽車和電氣化業務。

Communications represented 12% of revenue, finishing up 10% sequentially and down 26% year over year. Slowing customer inventory digestion enabled both wireless and wireline growth sequentially. And lastly, consumer represented 14% of revenue, finishing up 29% sequentially and increased year over year for the first time since 2022. We saw diversified growth across applications with notable strength in portables and gaming.

通訊業務佔營收的 12%，季增 10%，年減 26%。客戶庫存消化放緩使得無線和有線業務持續成長。最後，消費者佔收入的 14%，環比增長 29%，自 2022 年以來首次實現同比增長。

Now let's move from the top line to the rest of the P&L. Third quarter gross margin was 67.9%, up 120 basis points sequentially, driven by higher revenue, higher utilization and favorable mix. Operating expenses in the quarter were $619 million, up modestly sequentially, driven primarily by higher variable compensation. Operating margin of 41.2% exceeded the high end of our outlook. Non-operating expenses finished at $70 million and the tax rate for the quarter was 10.8%. The net result was EPS of $1.58, which finished near the high end of our outlook.

現在讓我們從頂行轉到損益表的其餘部分。第三季毛利率為 67.9%，比上一季成長 120 個基點，這得益於更高的收入、更高的利用率和有利的產品組合。本季營運費用為 6.19 億美元，環比小幅成長，主要是由於可變薪酬上升。 41.2% 的營業利潤率超出了我們預期的上限。營業外支出最終為 7,000 萬美元，該季度稅率為 10.8%。最終每股收益為 1.58 美元，接近我們預期的上限。

Our financial position is solid, and I'd like to call out a few items from our balance sheet and cash flow statement. We ended Q3 with more than $2.5 billion of cash and short-term investments and a net leverage ratio of 1.2. Inventory decreased $51 million sequentially and days declined to 178 from 192. As planned, we reduced channel inventory further this quarter with weeks ending near the low end of our seven- to eight week target.

我們的財務狀況穩健，我想從我們的資產負債表和現金流量表中指出一些項目。截至第三季末，我們擁有超過 25 億美元的現金和短期投資，淨槓桿率為 1.2。庫存季減了 5,100 萬美元，天數從 192 天減少到 178 天。

Operating cash flow for the quarter and trailing 12 months was $0.9 billion and $4 billion, respectively. Capex for the quarter and trailing 12 months was $154 million and $1 billion, respectively. For fiscal '24, Capex is tracking to our $700 million plan, which is down roughly 45% versus 2023 as our hybrid manufacturing investment cycle tapers.

本季和過去 12 個月的營運現金流分別為 9 億美元和 40 億美元。本季和過去 12 個月的資本支出分別為 1.54 億美元和 10 億美元。對於 24 財年，資本支出將追蹤我們的 7 億美元計劃，隨著我們的混合製造投資週期逐漸縮短，該計劃較 2023 年下降約 45%。

Not included in these figures are the anticipated benefits from both the European and US Chips Acts. During the last 12 months, we generated $2.9 billion of free cash flow or 30% of revenue. Over the same time period, we have returned $2.8 billion via dividends and share repurchases. As a reminder, our strategy is to return 100% of our free cash flow to our shareholders over the long term.

這些數字中不包括歐洲和美國晶片法案的預期收益。在過去 12 個月中，我們產生了 29 億美元的自由現金流，佔營收的 30%。同期，我們透過股利和股票回購返還了 28 億美元。提醒一下，我們的策略是長期將 100% 的自由現金流回饋給股東。

Now I will turn to the fourth quarter outlook. Revenues expected to be $2.4 billion, plus or minus $100 million, up 4% sequentially at the midpoint. We expect sell-through to be roughly equal to sell in this quarter. At the midpoint on a sequential basis, we expect industrial and consumer to increase, communications to be flattish and automotive to decrease. Operating margin is expected to be 41% plus or minus 100 basis points.

現在我將談談第四季的展望。營收預估為 24 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元，較上季中點成長 4%。我們預計本季的銷售量將大致等於銷售量。在環比的中點，我們預計工業和消費者將成長，通訊將持平，汽車將減少。營業利益率預計為 41%，上下浮動 100 個基點。

Our tax rate is expected to be between 11% and 13%. And based on these inputs, EPS is expected to be $1.63 plus or minus $0.1.

我們的稅率預計在 11% 至 13% 之間。根據這些投入，每股收益預計為 1.63 美元上下 0.1 美元。

In closing, our third quarter results and fourth quarter outlook support our view that we have passed the cycle's trough. However, challenging economic and geopolitical conditions are limiting a faster demand recovery. I will now give it back to Mike for Q&A.

最後，我們的第三季業績和第四季前景支持了我們的觀點，即我們已經度過了周期的低谷。然而，充滿挑戰的經濟和地緣政治條件限制了需求的更快復甦。我現在將其返回給邁克進行問答。

Thanks, Rich. Let's get to our Q&A session. (Event Instructions)

謝謝，里奇。讓我們進入問答環節。 （活動須知）

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

托雷‧思文凱 (Tore Svanberg)、史蒂菲爾 (Stifel)。

Yes. Thank you so much. Great to see the turn here. Vince, could you maybe elaborate a little bit more on the sort of mixed environment, right? Because inventories have bottomed -- excess inventories have bottomed at the same time and demand seems to be quite kind of mixed. So as you navigate through this period, could you elaborate a little bit on your visibility? How is backlog trending? Are you finally starting to see new products ramping more into production? These are typical signals that you want to see at the beginning of a new cycle?

是的。太感謝了。很高興看到這裡轉彎。 Vince，能否詳細說明一下混合環境，對吧？因為庫存已經觸底——過剩庫存同時觸底，而需求似乎相當複雜。那麼，當您度過這段時期時，您能詳細說明一下您的知名度嗎？積壓趨勢如何？您終於開始看到更多新產品投入生產了嗎？這些是您希望在新周期開始時看到的典型訊號？

Yeah, thanks. What I'd say, first and foremost, we run this company on POS signals. That's how we plan our production, how we run the company operationally. So we pay very, very close attention to what's happening in terms of the end market demand. And you know, my confidence has increased since last quarter that in the 2Q was the cyclical bottom. You know, we've exited 3Q with very, very lean channel inventory. We've taken inventory of our own balance sheet, though, we're positioned with a very, very healthy backlog of inventory on our own balance sheet so that the anticipated demand upsurge we expect in '25.

是的，謝謝。我想說的是，首先也是最重要的是，我們透過 POS 訊號來經營這家公司。這就是我們計劃生產、經營公司的方式。因此，我們非常非常密切地關注終端市場需求的變化。你知道，自上個季度以來，我的信心有所增強，認為第二季度是周期性底部。你知道，我們在第三季結束時渠道庫存非常非常少。不過，我們已經對自己的資產負債表進行了盤點，我們自己的資產負債表上有非常非常健康的積壓庫存，因此我們預計 25 年的需求將會激增。

We are very, very well equipped and ready to meet that. So for in the fourth quarter, as we've said, we expect to see continued sequential growth and we will also see, I think, particularly in the industrial area, continued improvement on customer inventory levels. So look at -- it's all the -- the whole recovery, the ramp of the recovery will depend on the macro situation.

我們的裝備非常非常齊全，已經準備好迎接這項挑戰。因此，正如我們所說，在第四季度，我們預計將看到持續的環比成長，我認為，特別是在工業領域，我們還將看到客戶庫存水準的持續改善。因此，看看整個復甦，復甦的速度將取決於宏觀情況。

But nonetheless, given the design wins we have a record design win pipeline (technical difficulty) in the company. So we're facing many, many secular tailwinds with a very strong pipeline, very, very good supply line and with a very, very lean inventory on the customer's balance sheet. So that gives me the optimism, Tore, that we're very, very well-positioned coming into the new year.

但儘管如此，考慮到設計獲勝，我們公司的設計獲勝管道（技術難度）創歷史新高。因此，我們面臨著很多很多長期的順風車，我們擁有非常強大的管道、非常非常好的供應線以及客戶資產負債表上非常非常精簡的庫存。因此，托雷，這讓我感到樂觀，我們在新的一年裡處於非常非常有利的位置。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joseph Moore, Morgan Stanley.

約瑟夫‧摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Thank you. My question is on the trajectory of automotive versus industrial. It seems like automotive entered into a inventory correction a little bit later and so far has been much less severe. I guess you sort of talked about some ongoing headwinds in that space. Can you just talk about what overall drawdown might you expect in automotive and and where are we in customers' kind of growing down safety stock inventory?

謝謝。我的問題是關於汽車與工業的發展軌跡。汽車業進入庫存調整的時間似乎稍晚一些，而且到目前為止還沒有那麼嚴重。我想你談到了該領域持續存在的一些阻力。您能否談談您預計汽車行業的整體縮減情況以及我們在客戶安全庫存庫存下降方面處於什麼位置？

So Joe, this is Richard. I'll take a crack at that one. So I'll just to level set a little bit from our perspective and what we're seeing in the market car continue to become more electric and software defined, which is also driving our semi content growth, likely trying to address increased battery densities, more sensors displays. And we do expect that that is going to be a long-term tailwind to our business.

喬，這是理查。我會嘗試一下。因此，我將從我們的角度進行一些水平設定，我們在市場上看到的汽車繼續變得更加電動化和軟體定義，這也推動了我們的半內容成長，可能試圖解決電池密度增加的問題，顯示更多感測器。我們確實預計這將成為我們業務的長期推動力。

However, and this is where we're starting to see some of the pullback, the vehicle market has softened in the near term. We're seeing our customers pull back on their production. And at this point, we're seeing them start to choose to burn off some inventory. So we are still seeing that. The softness is evidenced in our results. By far has been down year over year for two straight quarters, and we expect it will be down again in 4Q.

然而，這就是我們開始看到一些回調的地方，汽車市場在短期內已經疲軟。我們看到我們的客戶減少了生產。此時，我們看到他們開始選擇消耗一些庫存。所以我們仍然看到這一點。我們的結果證明了這種柔軟性。截至目前，已連續兩季年減，預計第四季將再次下降。

And from a bookings perspective, we did see a decline in bookings in auto. In particular, we've seen inventory digestion in our legacy auto and in our BMS portfolios and we expect that that's going to continue into at least the fourth quarter, particularly when you consider the challenging purchasing environment that currently exist for customers.

從預訂的角度來看，我們確實看到汽車預訂量下降。特別是，我們已經看到我們的傳統汽車和BMS 產品組合中的庫存消化，我們預計這種情況至少會持續到第四季度，特別是當你考慮到客戶當前存在的具有挑戰性的採購環境時。

However, to your question around the peak to trough, unless our returns to pandemic levels, we don't see that peak to trough being nearly as dramatic as we saw in our other end markets. The underlying secular growth trends that I described, driving higher semi content; also, we've continued to see more penetration in value capture across all vehicle types, whether it's ice, plug-in hybrid electric or full electric in the fastest growing applications.

然而，對於你關於從高峰到低谷的問題，除非我們回到大流行的水平，否則我們認為從高峰到低谷的變化不會像我們在其他終端市場看到的那樣劇烈。我所描述的潛在長期成長趨勢推動了半成品含量的提高；此外，我們繼續看到所有車輛類型在價值獲取方面的滲透率不斷提高，無論是冰車、插電式混合動力汽車還是增長最快的應用中的全電動汽車。

If you think about that [ADI] digital cockpit and electrification. So we will be down, but we don't expect that the cycle depth to be as severe as we saw, for example, in industrial.

如果您考慮 [ADI] 數位駕駛艙和電氣化。所以我們會下降，但我們預計週期深度不會像我們在工業領域看到的那麼嚴重。

Great. Thank you very much. And I guess was a follow up. Are you seeing that behavior any different regionally is the China automotive market different than the Western markets in terms of where they are?

偉大的。非常感謝。我猜這是後續行動。您是否認為中國汽車市場與西方市場的地區行為有什麼不同？

No. I'd say overall, it's pretty unanimous across all markets. At the time Analog did okay because also design and branding there, that's helping offset some of the softness. But as an overall comment, auto is a bit weaker today than it was 90 days ago, whether it's North America, Europe or Asia.

不，我想說的是，總體而言，所有市場的情況都非常一致。當時 Analog 做得還不錯，因為那裡的設計和品牌也很好，這有助於抵消一些弱點。但整體來看，無論是北美、歐洲或亞洲，今天的汽車市場比 90 天前都要疲軟。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya，美國銀行證券公司。

Thank you for taking my question. Vince, glad to hear about your optimism about turning this cyclical corner. Do you think the environment allows for sequential growth to continue into Q1? It seems like industrial could grow. Autos, I'm not sure, given some of the bookings commentary. And consumer tends to be down seasonally. So just conceptually, how should we model the shape of this recovery into Q1? Thank you.

感謝您回答我的問題。文斯，很高興聽到你對扭轉這個週期性困境的樂觀態度。您認為環境是否允許連續成長持續到第一季？工業似乎可以成長。鑑於一些預訂評論，我不確定汽車。消費者往往會季節性下降。因此，從概念上講，我們應該如何將這種復甦的形狀建模到第一季？謝謝。

Yeah, well. At this point, you know, it's hard to call given that the environment is still a little, let's say there's a bit of disequilibrium. But I think generally speaking, we would probably expect to see a bit of a seasonal decline in the fourth quarter and then a bounce back in the second. And I think that's the sentiment. But overall, I maintain my outlook that we would see a brisk growth here in '25.

是的，好吧。在這一點上，你知道，考慮到環境還有一點，比如說有一點不平衡，就很難打電話了。但我認為一般來說，我們可能會預期第四季會出現一些季節性下降，然後在第二季出現反彈。我認為這就是情感。但總體而言，我仍然認為 25 年我們將看到這裡的快速成長。

And then I'll help you out a little bit on the seasonality question. It's been a few years now since we've seen seasonal trends in our business. You're right. If you look back for the past 10-, 15 years ADI, consumer is down 10% plus sequentially in 1Q and the B2B markets of industrial, auto and comms are down low single digits. As Vince said, [as part of the numbers] we don't believe to data would be any better than seasonal given where we are today. But we'll update you in 90 days of how we feel about 1Q.

然後我將幫助您解決季節性問題。我們已經有幾年沒有看到業務的季節性趨勢了。你說得對。如果你回顧過去 10 年、15 年的情況，ADI 消費者在第一季連續下降了 10% 以上，而工業、汽車和通訊的 B2B 市場則下降了低個位數。正如文斯所說，[作為數字的一部分]考慮到我們今天的情況，我們認為數據不會比季節性數據更好。但我們將在 90 天內向您更新我們對 1Q 的看法。

I think the motivator for us will be what happens in industrial, in particular. And what I can tell you is that the various C-suite conversations I've had with our industrial customers would suggest that their optimism is also strong for '25.

我認為我們的動力尤其是工業領域發生的事情。我可以告訴你的是，我與工業客戶進行的各種高階主管對話表明，他們對 25 年也抱持強烈的樂觀態度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

提摩西‧阿庫裡，瑞銀集團。

Thanks a lot. I just wanted to ask on that answer. So you were above seasonal fiscal Q3. You're above seasonal and fiscal Q4. Sounds like you're not willing to commit that you're going to be above seasonal in fiscal Q1. The street's modeling like 5% or 6% above seasonal for fiscal Q1.

多謝。我只是想問這個答案。所以你的業績高於季節性第三季。您的業績高於季節性和財政季度的第四季度。聽起來您似乎不願意承諾第一財季的業績將高於季節性。該街道的模型比第一財季季節性高出 5% 或 6%。

Was there something that happened in bookings? Did bookings like slow in the last couple of weeks or the last month or something to make you not want to commit to the fact that fiscal Q1 would be above seasonal or just that it's 90 days away and you just don't want to comment on it? Thanks.

預訂時是否發生過什麼事？過去幾週或上個月的預訂速度是否緩慢，或者是什麼讓您不想承認第一個財季將高於季節性，或者僅僅是距離 90 天，您只是不想對此發表評論它？謝謝。

I'll start out on the street expectations and then with the rest of our bookings. We never guided 1Q. I think the street expectation for 1Q. I think street is of everyone, a better than seasonal for our counter 4Q or fiscal 1Q. And I hope of other snapback. I would say, yeah, there are things that change in 90 days, but we're optimistic about '25 for the full year. We still know it's above seasonal in that outlook for the year of '25. I'll pass it to Rich to go through some of the booking dynamics.

我將從街頭期望開始，然後是我們其餘的預訂。我們從未指導過第一季。我認為第一季的市場預期。我認為街頭是每個人的，對於我們的櫃檯第四季度或財政第一季來說，這比季節性更好。我希望有其他的快速恢復。我想說，是的，90 天內有些事情會發生變化，但我們對全年的 25 天持樂觀態度。我們仍然知道 25 年的前景高於季節性。我會將其傳遞給 Rich，以了解一些預訂動態。

Yeah. So from, Tim, from a bookings perspective, you know, up until Q2, as we talked about, we've seen three straight quarters of broad-based bookings improvement. However, Q3 was different. We saw continued bookings growth for industrial consumer and communications. But we did see automotive orders decline, which resulted in a modest drop in our total bookings during the quarter. We did still end with a book-to-bill around parity.

是的。因此，提姆，從預訂的角度來看，直到第二季度，正如我們所說，我們已經看到連續三個季度的廣泛預訂有所改善。然而，第三季情況有所不同。我們看到工業消費和通訊領域的預訂量持續成長。但我們確實看到汽車訂單下降，這導致本季我們的總預訂量略有下降。我們最後還是以訂單到帳單平價結束。

If I look at it from a geographic perspective, regionally, bookings were the weakest in Europe. Americas Americas was modestly weaker, which offset bookings growth in Asia.

如果我從地理角度來看，從區域來看，歐洲的預訂量是最弱的。美洲 美洲略有疲軟，抵消了亞洲預訂量的成長。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari，高盛。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. It was good to see inventory on your balance sheet come down again, and you guys spoke to channel inventory coming down as well. As you look forward, what are your thoughts on utilization rates internally? How are you engaging with your foundry partners, and what's embedded in your October quarter outlook as it pertains to the channel? Thank you.

嘿，早安。感謝您提出問題。很高興看到資產負債表上的庫存再次下降，你們也談到了通路庫存也下降了。展望未來，您對內部利用率有何看法？您如何與您的代工合作夥伴合作？謝謝。

So, as I noted in the last call, we said both utilization and, in fact, gross margins had bottomed in Q2, and that is proving to be true. From an inventory in the channel perspective, the expectation is we will ship to end demand. We are currently at the very low end of our range in the channel at seven to eight weeks. And I think we've mentioned previously if we saw continued improvements, we would start shipping to end demand. So we will do that in the fourth quarter.

因此，正如我在上次電話會議中指出的那樣，我們表示利用率和事實上的毛利率都已在第二季觸底，事實證明這是事實。從通路庫存的角度來看，預計我們將根據終端需求出貨。目前，我們正處於七到八週的通道範圍的最低端。我想我們之前已經提到過，如果我們看到持續的改進，我們將開始滿足最終需求。所以我們將在第四季這樣做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Obviously, when it comes to the balance, we have a hybrid manufacturing system which enables us to keep utilization rates as high as possible internally, and when our factories run out of capacity, then we have lots of choices externally for silicon capacity. So obviously, we've got a lot of inventory on the balance sheet, and our factories are very well capable of improving utilization rates as the demand continues to improve over the coming quarters.

顯然，在平衡方面，我們擁有混合製造系統，使我們能夠在內部保持盡可能高的利用率，當我們的工廠產能耗盡時，我們在外部矽產能上有很多選擇。顯然，我們的資產負債表上有大量庫存，隨著未來幾季需求的持續改善，我們的工廠完全有能力提高利用率。

As a quick follow-up, I think your internal utilization rates last quarter were in the mid-50s, if I'm not mistaken. Are you at or above 60% at this point, or if you can comment on that.

作為快速跟進，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為上個季度你們的內部利用率在 50 多歲左右。此時您是否達到或超過 60%，或者您是否可以對此發表評論。

We have to be -- given our look at the utilization towards as we give the rate, I would say there were lower last score to move in higher here in 3Q and 4Q, and there were well off the normal level, they're all called 85% to 90% utilization.

我們必須——考慮到我們給出的利用率，我想說的是，在第三季度和第四季度，最後得分較低，並且遠低於正常水平，它們都是稱為85% 至90 % 的利用率。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

And then I'll give you some context -- I'll give you some little context. What does this mean as utilization ramp? What does that mean for gross margins? If you look at the decline of gross margins over the past year or so, about half the decline relates to utilization, the other half relates to mix. So you can see as you listen, pick up what that means for gross margin expansion.

然後我會給你一些背景資訊——我會給你一些背景資訊。這對於利用率提升意味著什麼？這對毛利率意味著什麼？如果你看看過去一年左右的毛利率下降情況，大約一半的下降與利用率有關，另一半與混合有關。因此，您可以邊聽邊看，了解這對毛利率擴張意味著什麼。

Helpful. Thank you.

有幫助。謝謝。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

史黛西‧拉斯貢，伯恩斯坦研究中心。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping you could give us a little more granularity on the segment guide for next quarter. And then you said industrial, and I think consumer up and auto down. Any more for the color, like is consumer usually up, is it up double digits, is industrial up mid-single, auto down by low single, like any further color you could give us on the segments would be helpful.

嗨，大家好。感謝您提出我的問題。我希望您能為我們提供更多有關下季度細分指南的詳細資訊。然後你提到工業，我認為消費者上升，汽車下降。任何更多的顏色，例如消費者通常上漲，上漲兩位數，工業上漲中單，自動下跌低單，就像您可以在細分市場上為我們提供的任何其他顏色都會有幫助。

Sure, Stacy, I'll grab that one. Yes, so let's start with consumer. You're right, consumer's up about double digits, about 10% or so embedded in our outlook. Industrial's had another also solid growth quarter, probably high single digits sequentially. We had cases about flattish plus minus, depending on kind of how things go here, and although the weak market as we discussed and hit a little bit earlier on the call, probably down low single digits sequentially.

當然，史黛西，我會抓住那個。是的，讓我們從消費者開始。你是對的，消費者成長了大約兩位數，大約 10% 左右嵌入到我們的前景中。工業部門也有另一個穩定的成長季度，可能比上一季高個位數。我們有關於正負持平的情況，這取決於事情的進展情況，儘管我們在電話會議中早些時候討論並觸及了疲軟的市場，但可能會連續下跌低個位數。

Got it. That's helpful. If I could have a quick follow up, just how are you thinking about OpEx growth in the next quarter? It was pretty well under control this quarter. Is there anything that drives that up? Like what do you think about the OpEx trends as we're going to the end of the year?

知道了。這很有幫助。如果我可以快速跟進，您如何看待下一季的營運支出成長？本季情況得到了很好的控制。有什麼因素可以推動這一點嗎？接近年底，您對營運支出趨勢有何看法？

So Stacy, I'll take that one. So obviously we exceeded the high end of our outlook in the third quarter, given the beat on gross margin and revenue as well as our continued cost management. Our Q4 guide obviously does imply a modest margin contraction sequentially despite our expectation for higher revenue and gross margin. The main driver of that is our increase for merit increases that will go into effect during the fourth quarter. So that will be a downward pressure as we head into the fourth quarter.

所以史黛西，我會接受那個。顯然，考慮到毛利率和收入的成長以及我們持續的成本管理，我們第三季的預期超出了上限。儘管我們預計收入和毛利率會更高，但我們的第四季度指南顯然確實意味著利潤率將連續小幅收縮。其主要動力是我們將在第四季生效的績效加薪。因此，當我們進入第四季度時，這將是一個下行壓力。

I mean, the big margin on our OpEx, Stacey, is obviously the bonus. And that obviously with declining profit and revenue over the past several quarters, that dropped accordingly. Now, with increase, with growth in revenue and improvement in profitability that will obviously increase. But that's self-funding, so to speak.

我的意思是，史黛西，我們營運支出的大幅利潤顯然是獎金。顯然，隨著過去幾個季度的利潤和收入下降，這一數字也相應下降。現在，隨著收入的成長，隨著收入的成長和獲利能力的提高，獲利能力將會顯著提高。但可以這麼說，這是自籌資金。

Got it. How much do the OpEx go up then?

知道了。那麼 OpEx 會漲多少？

For our fourth quarter outlook, I’d say sequentially increase in our OpEx around 5%.

對於我們第四季的展望，我認為我們的營運支出將較上季成長 5% 左右。

That's great. Thanks so much. Appreciate it guys.

那太棒了。非常感謝。很欣賞你們。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Chris Danely, Citi.

克里斯·丹尼利，花旗銀行。

Thanks guys. First, just a little clarification on inventory in the auto market. Vince, I said it, I think at the beginning you talked about inventory is very lean out there, but then you're also saying that there's inventory digestion going on in the automotive market. Can you just expand on that a little bit?

謝謝你們。首先，對汽車市場的庫存進行一些澄清。文斯，我說過了，我想一開始你談到了庫存非常精簡，但後來你也說汽車市場正在消化庫存。能稍微擴充一下嗎？

Dan, I'll grab that, and then Vince, talk about the overall customer inventory. Yes, I think every market spawned in different cases of inventory digestion. We feel good about industrial consumer comms have really normalized inventory levels. There are pockets on the auto side that's still, I'll call it digesting.

丹，我會抓住這個，然後文斯，談談總體客戶庫存。是的，我認為每個市場都會產生不同的庫存消化案例。我們對工業消費通訊的庫存水準確實正常化感到滿意。汽車一側還有一些口袋，我稱之為消化。

I mean, production levels have been cut over the past quarter, whether it's an ICE car or an EV car. That impact inventory levels and desire to hold inventory on their balance sheets. From that standpoint, Chris, I don't know, Vince, if you have anything to add.

我的意思是，無論是內燃機汽車還是電動車，生產水準在過去一個季度都被削減了。這會影響庫存水準以及將庫存保留在資產負債表上的願望。從這個角度來看，克里斯，我不知道，文斯，你是否還有什麼要補充的。

I think, Chris, overall, we've seen the worst is behind us, I think, in the industrial consumer and comms market. But automotive, I think, is a sector where we will see some inventory digestion issues into at least the early part of 2025.

克里斯，我認為，總的來說，我們已經看到工業消費者和通訊市場最糟糕的時期已經過去。但我認為，汽車產業至少到 2025 年初我們將會看到一些庫存消化問題。

Great. Thanks. That's helpful. And then just a quick clarification on industrial. How would you characterize your, I guess, booking/ visibility on the industrial market now versus three months ago? Is it roughly the same, or has it improved a little bit?

偉大的。謝謝。這很有幫助。然後對工業進行快速澄清。我想，與三個月前相比，您現在在工業市場上的預訂/知名度如何？是大致相同還是有所改善？

Hey, Chris, it's Rich. I would say visibility is pretty consistent. And as we talked about, we're seeing continuing growth sequentially across all of the sub-elements of industrial with the exception of automation, which we are seeing improvements, but not yet seeing growth.

嘿，克里斯，我是里奇。我想說的是，能見度非常一致。正如我們所討論的，我們看到工業所有子要素都在持續成長，但自動化除外，我們看到了自動化的改進，但尚未看到成長。

Got it. Thanks, Rich.

知道了。謝謝，里奇。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So for fiscal ‘23, China domestic consumption, I think was about 18% of their total revenues, it was the worst performing geography. Last couple of quarters where bookings in China have been growing sequentially.

早安.感謝您提出我的問題。因此，就 23 財年而言，中國國內消費約佔總收入的 18%，是表現最差的地區。過去幾個季度，中國的預訂量持續成長。

Did that translate into sequential revenue growth out of the region in the July quarter? And then it looks like orders from the China region grew sequentially in July. How are they trending so far quarter-to-date? Are you still seeing sort of positive signs out of this region?

這是否會轉化為該地區七月份季度的收入環比增長？然後看起來來自中國地區的訂單在七月環比增長。到目前為止，季度至今它們的趨勢如何？您是否仍然看到該地區出現一些積極跡象？

Yeah, we continue to see strong performance from a bookings perspective in China. We did see double digit growth across industrial, auto and comms being slightly offset by a decrease in consumer. So China does continue to perform well. And our design win and our pipeline there are very strong.

是的，從預訂的角度來看，我們繼續看到中國的強勁表現。我們確實看到工業、汽車和通訊領域的兩位數成長被消費者的減少略有抵消。所以中國確實繼續表現良好。我們的設計勝利和我們的管道都非常強大。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Joshua Butler, TD Cowen.

約書亞·巴特勒，TD·考恩。

Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. Maybe you can walk through some of the puts and takes into gross margin into the October quarter. Back the envelope, I'm getting to roughly stable sequentially despite the revenue increase and I imagine utilization is improving as well. How much of that is mixed? And in particular, is there any changes in the pricing environment as we get sort of through this digestion into what I would imagine is a more competitive environment. Thank you.

嘿，夥計們，謝謝你提出我的問題。也許您可以將一些看跌期權和看跌期權納入十月份季度的毛利率中。回到極限，儘管收入增加了，但我的收入逐漸趨於穩定，我認為利用率也在增加。其中有多少是混合的？特別是，當我們透過這種消化進入我想像的更具競爭性的環境時，定價環境是否有任何變化。謝謝。

Yes. I'd say it's, as we previously mentioned, it is significantly impacted by the favorable mix. Obviously, we get a benefit out of the revenue upside. From a pricing perspective, and I've talked about this before, we continue to see pretty stable pricing, and I do expect that to continue. Obviously, it's different by geography and for big and small customers, but on balance, we are continuing to see stable pricing, and I expect we will see that going forward.

是的。我想說，正如我們之前提到的，它受到有利組合的顯著影響。顯然，我們從收入成長中受益。從定價的角度來看，我之前已經討論過這一點，我們繼續看到相當穩定的定價，我確實預計這種情況會持續下去。顯然，根據地理位置以及大小客戶的不同，情況有所不同，但總的來說，我們繼續看到穩定的價格，我預計我們會看到這一點。

Once our products are installed in a particular customer's design, they tend to, in the industrial business, they will stay for decades, and pricing is very, very stable there. Where the pricing, or the competitiveness, is for new sockets, new wins, but nothing is new there. Now, we as a company -- we play in the high end of the game in terms of innovation, service, support, and so on and so forth.

一旦我們的產品安裝在特定客戶的設計中，它們往往會在工業業務中停留數十年，而且價格非常非常穩定。定價或競爭力在於新的插座、新的勝利，但那裡沒有什麼新鮮事。現在，我們作為一家公司，在創新、服務、支援等方面處於高端領域。

So that's the game we play. In the game we will continue to play. We significantly higher ASPs than most. And those ASPs increase with each new generation of product. So I think overall, as Rich said, the pricing environment is stable. And so I don't see that as a headwind on margin.

這就是我們玩的遊戲。比賽中我們會繼續比賽。我們的平均售價明顯高於大多數公司。這些平均售價隨著每一代新產品的推出而增加。所以我認為總體而言，正如里奇所說，定價環境是穩定的。因此，我不認為這對利潤率構成不利影響。

Thanks, Josh. I think that's all the time we have for questions today. I thought we had a little more time, but it's August. You guys can go out there and enjoy the weather a bit. So thanks for joining us, all. We look forward to future calls with you guys, and have a great rest of summer.

謝謝，喬許。我想這就是我們今天提問的時間了。我以為我們還有更多時間，但現在是八月了。你們可以出去享受天氣。感謝大家加入我們。我們期待未來與你們的通話，並度過一個愉快的夏天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 Analog Devices 電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。