亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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our expectations only as a date of this call. We undertake no obligation to update the statements except as required by law. Revenue, adjusted gross margin, operating and non-operating expenses, operating margin, tax rate, EPS and free cash flow in our comment today will be on non-GAAP basis, which excludes special items. When comparing our results to historic performance. Special items are also excluded from prior periods. Reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's release.

我們的期望只是作為本次通話的日期。除非法律要求，我們不承擔更新聲明的義務。我們今天評論中的收入、調整後毛利率、營業和非營業費用、營業利潤率、稅率、每股收益和自由現金流均基於非 GAAP 基礎，不包括特殊項目。當將我們的結果與歷史表現進行比較時。特殊項目也不包括在前期中。今天的發佈內容包括這些非公認會計準則指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標的對賬，以及有關我們的非公認會計準則指標的其他資訊。

And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche.

接下來，我將把發言權交給 ADI 的執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche。

Thanks very much, Mike, and a very good morning to you all. A stronger demand for high-performance product portfolio and skillful execution resulted in third quarter revenue of more than $2.3 billion, operating margin north of 41% and EPS of $1.58, all above the midpoint of our outlook. These favorable results combined with improved customer inventory levels and order momentum across most of our markets increased my confidence that our second quarter marks the cyclical bottom for ADI.

非常感謝，麥克，祝大家早安。對高性能產品組合的更強勁需求和熟練的執行使得第三季度營收超過 23 億美元，營業利潤率超過 41%，每股收益達到 1.58 美元，均高於我們預期的中點。這些良好的業績，加上我們大多數市場客戶庫存水準的提高和訂單勢頭的增強，增強了我的信心，即第二季度標誌著 ADI 的周期性底部。

My optimism remains guarded. However, this challenging economic and geopolitical conditions are limiting the sharper recovery. We continue to balance near-term fiscal discipline with strategic investments in our long-term growth initiatives, positioning ADI to capitalize on the extraordinary opportunities that we see ahead.

我仍然保持謹慎的樂觀。然而，嚴峻的經濟和地緣政治條件正在限制更強勁的復甦。我們繼續在短期財政紀律與長期成長計畫的策略投資之間取得平衡，使 ADI 能夠利用我們所看到的未來​​非凡機會。

Now I'd like to draw attention to our industrial end market, which is our largest, most diverse and most profitable business, generating durable revenue streams that last close the two decades on average. As our business begins to recover from the pandemic's volatility, we're excited about the tremendous long-term growth opportunities of the industrial market.

現在，我想提請大家關注我們的工業終端市場，這是我們規模最大、最多樣化、最賺錢的業務，產生的持久收入流平均可持續近二十年。隨著我們的業務開始從疫情的波動中恢復，我們對工業市場巨大的長期成長機會感到興奮。

We offer our customers an unparalleled suite of high-performance solutions, stretching from intended to bid, sensor to cloud, and nanowatts to kilowatts. Our extensive technology portfolio, combined with our deep domain expertise and engineering muscle, has enabled us to secure leading positions across the most attractive industrial sectors.

我們為客戶提供無與倫比的高性能解決方案套件，從意圖到投標、從感測器到雲端、從納瓦到千瓦。我們廣泛的技術組合，結合我們深厚的領域專業知識和工程實力，使我們在最具吸引力的工業領域中佔據領先地位。

Now, with growing digital software and algorithm capabilities, augmenting our cutting-edge Analog portfolio, ADI is strongly positioned to solve our customers' most difficult challenges in factory and process automation, energy efficiency, secure connectivity, and many, many more.

現在，隨著數位軟體和演算法能力的不斷增強，增強了我們尖端的類比產品組合，ADI 公司已經有能力解決客戶在工廠和製程自動化、能源效率、安全連接等方面面臨的最困難的挑戰。

To illustrate the power and potential of our industrial franchise, let me share with you a few examples of how our recent innovations are unlocking new revenue streams and positioning us for strong growth in the years ahead. For example, our Instrumentation and Test business, which includes scientific instruments, electronic test and measurement and automated test equipment is essential to the important scientific and technological advancements of the digital era.

為了說明我們的工業特許經營的實力和潛力，讓我與大家分享幾個例子，說明我們最近的創新如何開闢新的收入來源，並為我們在未來幾年的強勁增長做好準備。例如，我們的儀器和測試業務包括科學儀器、電子測試和測量以及自動化測試設備，對於數位時代的重要科學技術進步至關重要。

Within automated test equipment, for example, our next-generation solutions increased channel density and throughput while reducing energy consumption by up to 30% per system. These are crucial parameters for testing complex, high-performance compute GPUs and high-bandwidth memory systems for AI. As the AI infrastructure build-out remains a priority for global hyperscalers, we expect growth to continue into 2025 and indeed well beyond.

例如，在自動化測試設備中，我們的下一代解決方案提高了通道密度和吞吐量，同時將每個系統的能耗降低了高達 30%。這些是測試複雜、高效能運算 GPU 和 AI 高頻寬記憶體系統的關鍵參數。由於人工智慧基礎設施建設仍然是全球超大規模企業的首要任務，我們預計成長將持續到 2025 年甚至更久。

Turning now to aerospace and defense, which has been our most resilient business during this downturn, ADI's domain expertise and high-performance portfolio across RF and microwave, high speed and precision converters, power and MEMS uniquely positions us to deliver complete edge solutions, offering our customers scale, velocity and lower total cost of ownership.

現在轉向航空航太和國防，這是我們在這次經濟衰退期間最具彈性的業務，ADI 在射頻和微波、高速和精密轉換器、電源和 MEMS 領域的專業知識和高性能產品組合使我們能夠提供完整的邊緣解決方案，為我們的客戶提供規模、速度和更低的總體擁有成本。

As an example, we're building upon our programmable Apollo Signal Chain platform today to create full software-defined RF communications and sensor systems, which has the potential to increase our SAM by 5x in commercial, defense and aerospace communication systems. Indeed, we see a path to double-digit revenue growth in this sector in 2025, fueled by several high-value design wins that are going to production.

舉例來說，我們目前正在基於可編程的阿波羅訊號鏈平台創建完全軟體定義的射頻通訊和感測器系統，這有可能將商業、國防和航空航太通訊系統中的 SAM 提高 5 倍。事實上，我們預計，在幾項即將投入生產的高價值設計的推動下，到 2025 年，該行業的收入將實現兩位數增長。

In automation, though we've seen a slow recovery to date, we remain strongly confident in its future growth potential, as the benefits of increased productivity are ever more clear. Customers are prioritizing enhanced digitalization and IT-OT integration on the factory floors. Their deployments of in-line instrumentation and advanced robotics are driving the need for more sensing edge processing, secure connectivity and power management.

在自動化領域，儘管迄今為止我們看到了緩慢的復甦，但我們對其未來的成長潛力仍然充滿信心，因為提高生產力的好處更加明顯。客戶優先考慮工廠車間的增強數位化和 IT-OT 整合。他們對線上儀器和先進機器人的部署推動了對更多感測邊緣處理、安全連接和電源管理的需求。

Within robotics, we're seeing a progression from fixed our machines to autonomous and mobile robots to eventually humanoid robots. This evolution creates additional opportunities for our precision signal chain franchise and censor and connectivity of motion control subsystems with fully isolated and efficient power solutions can drive content from hundreds of dollars in robots today to thousands in autonomous and humanoid robots.

在機器人技術領域，我們看到了從固定機器到自主移動機器人、最終到人形機器人的進步。這種演變為我們的精密訊號鏈特許經營和審查創造了額外的機會，並且透過完全隔離和高效的電源解決方案將運動控制子系統連接起來，可以將內容從當今機器人的數百美元驅動到自主和人形機器人的數千美元。

What is additionally exciting about these advances is their broad applicability beyond factories such as surgical robots and imaging systems in healthcare. ADI's products have the potential to dramatically improve a surgeons' effectiveness through a more precise surgical experience with lower latency connectivity. Additionally, patients gain the potential benefits of shorter hospital stays and fewer complications.

這些進步更令人興奮的是它們除了工廠之外還具有廣泛的適用性，例如手術機器人和醫療保健領域的影像系統。ADI 的產品有可能透過更精確的手術體驗和更低延遲的連接顯著提高外科醫生的效率。此外，患者還可以享受住院時間縮短、併發症減少的潛在好處。

The evolution in robotics is expected to unlock billions of dollars of potential opportunity for our high-performance Analog, mixed-signal power connectivity and sensing solutions. We see the potential for a doubling of our robotics revenue in the years ahead.

機器人技術的發展預計將為我們的高性能模擬、混合訊號電源連接和感測解決方案釋放數十億美元的潛在機會。我們預計未來幾年我們的機器人收入將翻倍。

Turning now to energy transmission and distribution, our customers are modernizing and digitalizing the electrical grid to respond to exponentially accelerating energy demand driven in part by the proliferation of electric transportation and rapid AI adoption. This process is resulting in a grid that is distributed, dynamic and bidirectional, a paradigm shift from the past model of linear stable supply. We are working with traditional suppliers and disruptors to enable the necessary intelligence for the new grid from decentralized power plants to the distribution edge.

現在轉向能源傳輸和分配，我們的客戶正在對電網進行現代化和數位化，以應對由電動交通的普及和人工智慧的快速應用所推動的能源需求的急劇增長。這個過程形成了分散式、動態化和雙向化的電網，這與過去的線性穩定供電模式發生了範式轉移。我們正在與傳統供應商和顛覆者合作，為從分散發電廠到配電邊緣的新電網提供必要的智慧。

We're leveraging our Analog and algorithm capabilities in cutting edge energy monitoring and management solutions. Additionally, our battery management technology increases capacity and improves energy utilization in the grids renewable energy storage systems. This reimagined intelligent grid of the future has the potential to expand our SAM by over $10 billion and creates tailwinds for our energy franchise for many years to come.

我們正在利用我們的模擬和演算法能力來實現尖端的能源監控和管理解決方案。此外，我們的電池管理技術提高了容量並提高了電網再生能源儲存系統的能源利用率。這種重新構想的未來智慧電網有可能將我們的 SAM 擴大 100 多億美元，並為我們未來許多年的能源特許經營創造順風。

Given the synergies across our industrial portfolio, our pace of innovation and the emerging signs of market recovery, we're optimistic for our industrial business that has turned the corner and '25 will be a robust growth year.

鑑於我們工業組合的協同作用、我們的創新步伐以及市場復甦的新興跡象，我們對已經扭轉局面的工業業務充滿信心，2025年將是強勁增長的一年。

So in closing, our investments in high-performance Analog solutions are enabling us to intersect with and leverage the numerous concurrent secular trends that transcend the business cycle and will propel us into the future. Our commitment to our customer success and to impactful innovation will be the path that carries us there, ultimately increasing long-term shareholder value.

總而言之，我們對高效能模擬解決方案的投資使我們能夠與超越商業週期的眾多並發長期趨勢相交叉並利用這些趨勢，推動我們走向未來。我們對客戶成功和有影響力的創新的承諾將成為我們實現這一目標的道路，並最終提高長期股東價值。

aAnd so with that, I'm going to turn it over to Rich, who'll take you through the numbers.

因此，我將把時間交給 Rich，他將向你們介紹這些數字。

Thank you, Vince. Let me add my welcome to our third quarter earnings call. Third quarter revenue of $2.31 billion came in above the midpoint of our outlook, finishing up 7% sequentially and down 25% year over year. Industrial represented 46% of revenue in the third quarter, finishing up 6% sequentially and down 37% year over year. Every major application increased sequentially except for automation, which declined at a much slower pace than it had in previous quarters.

謝謝你，文斯。我要對大家參加我們的第三季財報電話會議表示歡迎。第三季營收為 23.1 億美元，高於我們預期的中位數，季增 7%，年減 25%。工業業務佔第三季營收的 46%，季增 6%，年減 37%。除自動化外，所有主要應用均實現連續成長，而自動化的下滑速度比前幾季慢得多。

Automotive represented 29% of revenue, finishing flat sequentially and down 8% year over year. We saw continued double-digit growth year over year for our industry-leading connectivity and functionally safe power platforms. Conversely, automotive production cuts are extending inventory digestion across customers, particularly impacting our legacy automotive and electrification businesses.

汽車業務佔總營收的 29%，環比持平，年減 8%。我們業界領先的連接性和功能安全的電源平台連續實現兩位數的同比增長。相反，汽車減產正在擴大客戶的庫存消化範圍，尤其會影響我們傳統的汽車和電氣化業務。

Communications represented 12% of revenue, finishing up 10% sequentially and down 26% year over year. Slowing customer inventory digestion enabled both wireless and wireline growth sequentially. And lastly, consumer represented 14% of revenue, finishing up 29% sequentially and increased year over year for the first time since 2022. We saw diversified growth across applications with notable strength in portables and gaming.

通訊業務佔總營收的 12%，比上一季成長 10%，比去年同期下降 26%。客戶庫存消化放緩使得無線和有線業務均實現持續成長。最後，消費者佔收入的 14%，環比增長 29%，並自 2022 年以來首次同比增長。我們看到了各個應用領域的多樣化成長，尤其是在便攜式設備和遊戲領域中表現突出。

Now let's move from the top line to the rest of the P&L. Third quarter gross margin was 67.9%, up 120 basis points sequentially, driven by higher revenue, higher utilization and favorable mix. Operating expenses in the quarter were $619 million, up modestly sequentially, driven primarily by higher variable compensation. Operating margin of 41.2% exceeded the high end of our outlook. Non-operating expenses finished at $70 million and the tax rate for the quarter was 10.8%. The net result was EPS of $1.58, which finished near the high end of our outlook.

現在讓我們從頂行轉到損益表的其餘部分。第三季毛利率為 67.9%，比上一季上升 120 個基點，這得益於收入增加、利用率提高和產品組合有利。本季營運費用為 6.19 億美元，環比小幅成長，主要由於可變薪酬增加。41.2%的營業利潤率超出了我們預期的最高水準。非營業支出為 7,000 萬美元，本季稅率為 10.8%。淨結果是每股收益 1.58 美元，接近我們預期的最高值。

Our financial position is solid, and I'd like to call out a few items from our balance sheet and cash flow statement. We ended Q3 with more than $2.5 billion of cash and short-term investments and a net leverage ratio of 1.2. Inventory decreased $51 million sequentially and days declined to 178 from 192. As planned, we reduced channel inventory further this quarter with weeks ending near the low end of our seven- to eight week target.

我們的財務狀況穩健，我想從我們的資產負債表和現金流量表中指出幾點。截至第三季度，我們的現金和短期投資超過 25 億美元，淨槓桿率為 1.2。庫存較上月減少 5,100 萬美元，庫存天數從 192 天減少至 178 天。按照計劃，本季我們進一步減少了通路庫存，庫存週數接近我們七到八週目標的低端。

Operating cash flow for the quarter and trailing 12 months was $0.9 billion and $4 billion, respectively. Capex for the quarter and trailing 12 months was $154 million and $1 billion, respectively. For fiscal '24, Capex is tracking to our $700 million plan, which is down roughly 45% versus 2023 as our hybrid manufacturing investment cycle tapers.

本季和過去 12 個月的經營現金流分別為 9 億美元和 40 億美元。本季和過去 12 個月的資本支出分別為 1.54 億美元和 10 億美元。對於 24 財年，資本支出按照我們的 7 億美元計劃進行，由於混合製造投資週期逐漸縮小，與 2023 年相比下降約 45%。

Not included in these figures are the anticipated benefits from both the European and US Chips Acts. During the last 12 months, we generated $2.9 billion of free cash flow or 30% of revenue. Over the same time period, we have returned $2.8 billion via dividends and share repurchases. As a reminder, our strategy is to return 100% of our free cash flow to our shareholders over the long term.

這些數字不包括歐洲和美國晶片法案預期帶來的利益。在過去的 12 個月中，我們產生了 29 億美元的自由現金流，佔營收的 30%。在同一時期，我們透過股利和股票回購返還了 28 億美元。提醒一下，我們的策略是長期將 100% 的自由現金流回饋給股東。

Now I will turn to the fourth quarter outlook. Revenues expected to be $2.4 billion, plus or minus $100 million, up 4% sequentially at the midpoint. We expect sell-through to be roughly equal to sell in this quarter. At the midpoint on a sequential basis, we expect industrial and consumer to increase, communications to be flattish and automotive to decrease. Operating margin is expected to be 41% plus or minus 100 basis points.

現在我將談談第四季的展望。預計營收為 24 億美元（上下浮動 1 億美元），中位數環比成長 4%。我們預計本季的銷售量將大致相當於銷售額。以環比中位數計算，我們預計工業和消費品將成長，通訊將持平，而汽車將下降。預計營業利益率為 41%（正負 100 個基點）。

Our tax rate is expected to be between 11% and 13%. And based on these inputs, EPS is expected to be $1.63 plus or minus $0.1.

我們的稅率預計在11%至13%之間。基於這些輸入，預計每股收益為 1.63 美元，上下浮動 0.1 美元。

In closing, our third quarter results and fourth quarter outlook support our view that we have passed the cycle's trough. However, challenging economic and geopolitical conditions are limiting a faster demand recovery. I will now give it back to Mike for Q&A.

最後，我們的第三季業績和第四季度展望支持了我們的觀點，即我們已經度過了周期的低谷。然而，嚴峻的經濟和地緣政治條件限制了需求的更快復甦。現在我將把主題交還給 Mike 進行問答。

Thanks, Rich. Let's get to our Q&A session. (Event Instructions)

謝謝，里奇。讓我們進入問答環節。(活動須知)

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

托爾·思文伯格（Tore Svanberg），Stifel 公司。

Yes. Thank you so much. Great to see the turn here. Vince, could you maybe elaborate a little bit more on the sort of mixed environment, right? Because inventories have bottomed -- excess inventories have bottomed at the same time and demand seems to be quite kind of mixed. So as you navigate through this period, could you elaborate a little bit on your visibility? How is backlog trending? Are you finally starting to see new products ramping more into production? These are typical signals that you want to see at the beginning of a new cycle?

是的。太感謝了。很高興看到這裡的轉變。文斯，你能否更詳細地闡述一下混合環境？因為庫存已觸底——過剩庫存也已同時觸底，而且需求似乎相當混雜。那麼，當您度過這段時期時，您能否詳細說明一下您的知名度？積壓訂單的趨勢如何？您是否終於開始看到更多新產品投入生產？這些是您希望在新周期開始時看到的典型訊號嗎？

Yeah, thanks. What I'd say, first and foremost, we run this company on POS signals. That's how we plan our production, how we run the company operationally. So we pay very, very close attention to what's happening in terms of the end market demand. And you know, my confidence has increased since last quarter that in the 2Q was the cyclical bottom. You know, we've exited 3Q with very, very lean channel inventory. We've taken inventory of our own balance sheet, though, we're positioned with a very, very healthy backlog of inventory on our own balance sheet so that the anticipated demand upsurge we expect in '25.

是的，謝謝。我想說的是，首先，我們是透過 POS 訊號來經營這家公司的。這就是我們計劃生產、經營公司的方式。因此，我們非常密切地關注終端市場需求的情況。你知道，自上個季度以來，我的信心增強了，第二季是週期性的底部。您知道，我們在第三季結束時渠道庫存非常非常少。我們已經對自己的資產負債表進行了盤點，但我們自己的資產負債表上的庫存積壓情況非常非常健康，因此我們預計 25 年的需求將會激增。

We are very, very well equipped and ready to meet that. So for in the fourth quarter, as we've said, we expect to see continued sequential growth and we will also see, I think, particularly in the industrial area, continued improvement on customer inventory levels. So look at -- it's all the -- the whole recovery, the ramp of the recovery will depend on the macro situation.

我們已經做好了充分的準備來應對這項挑戰。因此，正如我們所說的，對於第四季度，我們預計將看到持續的連續成長，而且我認為，特別是在工業領域，我們還將看到客戶庫存水準的持續改善。所以看看整個復甦，復甦的坡度將取決於宏觀情況。

But nonetheless, given the design wins we have a record design win pipeline (technical difficulty) in the company. So we're facing many, many secular tailwinds with a very strong pipeline, very, very good supply line and with a very, very lean inventory on the customer's balance sheet. So that gives me the optimism, Tore, that we're very, very well-positioned coming into the new year.

但儘管如此，考慮到設計的勝利，我們公司擁有創紀錄的設計勝利管道（技術難度）。因此，我們面臨許多長期的順風，我們擁有非常強大的管道、非常非常好的供應線，但客戶資產負債表上的庫存非常非常少。所以，托爾，這讓我充滿樂觀，我們已經為新的一年做好了非常非常有利的準備。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joseph Moore, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的約瑟夫·摩爾。

Thank you. My question is on the trajectory of automotive versus industrial. It seems like automotive entered into a inventory correction a little bit later and so far has been much less severe. I guess you sort of talked about some ongoing headwinds in that space. Can you just talk about what overall drawdown might you expect in automotive and and where are we in customers' kind of growing down safety stock inventory?

謝謝。我的問題是關於汽車與工業的發展軌跡。汽車業進入庫存調整階段似乎稍晚一些，目前為止調整程度還不那麼嚴重。我想您已經談到了該領域正在面臨的一些不利因素。您能否談談您預計汽車產業的整體下降幅度以及客戶安全庫存的成長？

So Joe, this is Richard. I'll take a crack at that one. So I'll just to level set a little bit from our perspective and what we're seeing in the market car continue to become more electric and software defined, which is also driving our semi content growth, likely trying to address increased battery densities, more sensors displays. And we do expect that that is going to be a long-term tailwind to our business.

喬，這是理查。我會嘗試一下這個。因此，我只是從我們的角度進行一點調整，我們在市場上看到的是汽車繼續變得更加電氣化和軟體定義，這也推動了我們的半導體內容成長，可能會試圖解決增加電池密度、更多的感測器顯示器等問題。我們確實預計這將成為我們業務的長期推動力。

However, and this is where we're starting to see some of the pullback, the vehicle market has softened in the near term. We're seeing our customers pull back on their production. And at this point, we're seeing them start to choose to burn off some inventory. So we are still seeing that. The softness is evidenced in our results. By far has been down year over year for two straight quarters, and we expect it will be down again in 4Q.

然而，我們開始看到一些回調，汽車市場在短期內已經走軟。我們看到我們的客戶正在減少產量。此時，我們看到他們開始選擇銷毀一些庫存。所以我們仍然看到這種情況。我們的研究結果證實了其柔軟性。到目前為止，已經連續兩個季度同比下降，我們預計第四季將再次下降。

And from a bookings perspective, we did see a decline in bookings in auto. In particular, we've seen inventory digestion in our legacy auto and in our BMS portfolios and we expect that that's going to continue into at least the fourth quarter, particularly when you consider the challenging purchasing environment that currently exist for customers.

從預訂量來看，我們確實看到汽車預訂量下降。特別是，我們看到傳統汽車和 BMS 產品組合中的庫存消化情況，我們預計這種情況至少會持續到第四季度，特別是考慮到目前客戶面臨的嚴峻購買環境。

However, to your question around the peak to trough, unless our returns to pandemic levels, we don't see that peak to trough being nearly as dramatic as we saw in our other end markets. The underlying secular growth trends that I described, driving higher semi content; also, we've continued to see more penetration in value capture across all vehicle types, whether it's ice, plug-in hybrid electric or full electric in the fastest growing applications.

然而，對於您關於從峰頂到谷底的問題，除非我們的經濟回到大流行的水平，否則我們不認為從峰頂到谷底的轉變會像我們在其他終端市場看到的那樣劇烈。我所描述的潛在的長期成長趨勢，推動了半導體內容的提升；此外，我們繼續看到所有車輛類型在價值獲取方面的滲透率不斷提高，無論是冰上行駛、插電式混合動力汽車還是全電動汽車，都是成長最快的應用。

If you think about that [ADI] digital cockpit and electrification. So we will be down, but we don't expect that the cycle depth to be as severe as we saw, for example, in industrial.

如果你考慮一下[ADI]數位駕駛艙和電氣化。因此我們會下降，但我們預計週期深度不會像我們在工業領域看到的那麼嚴重。

Great. Thank you very much. And I guess was a follow up. Are you seeing that behavior any different regionally is the China automotive market different than the Western markets in terms of where they are?

偉大的。非常感謝。我想這是一個後續行動。您是否發現這種行為在地區上有差異？

No. I'd say overall, it's pretty unanimous across all markets. At the time Analog did okay because also design and branding there, that's helping offset some of the softness. But as an overall comment, auto is a bit weaker today than it was 90 days ago, whether it's North America, Europe or Asia.

不。我想說整體而言，所有市場都是一致的看法。當時 Analog 表現還不錯，因為其設計和品牌有助於抵消一些疲軟因素。但整體而言，無論是北美、歐洲或亞洲，汽車市場目前都比 90 天前略弱。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya 的美國銀行證券。

Thank you for taking my question. Vince, glad to hear about your optimism about turning this cyclical corner. Do you think the environment allows for sequential growth to continue into Q1? It seems like industrial could grow. Autos, I'm not sure, given some of the bookings commentary. And consumer tends to be down seasonally. So just conceptually, how should we model the shape of this recovery into Q1? Thank you.

感謝您回答我的問題。文斯，很高興聽到你對於扭轉這一週期性轉折的樂觀態度。您認為環境允許連續成長持續到第一季嗎？看起來工業可以成長。汽車，我不確定，因為有一些預訂評論。且消費者消費往往會出現季節性下滑。那麼從概念上講，我們該如何模擬第一季的復甦形態？謝謝。

Yeah, well. At this point, you know, it's hard to call given that the environment is still a little, let's say there's a bit of disequilibrium. But I think generally speaking, we would probably expect to see a bit of a seasonal decline in the fourth quarter and then a bounce back in the second. And I think that's the sentiment. But overall, I maintain my outlook that we would see a brisk growth here in '25.

嗯，嗯。你知道，在這一點上，由於環境仍然有點不平衡，所以很難斷言。但我認為總體而言，我們可能會預期第四季會出現一些季節性下滑，然後在第二季出現反彈。我想這就是人們的情緒吧。但總體而言，我仍然認為我們將在25年看到快速成長。

And then I'll help you out a little bit on the seasonality question. It's been a few years now since we've seen seasonal trends in our business. You're right. If you look back for the past 10-, 15 years ADI, consumer is down 10% plus sequentially in 1Q and the B2B markets of industrial, auto and comms are down low single digits. As Vince said, [as part of the numbers] we don't believe to data would be any better than seasonal given where we are today. But we'll update you in 90 days of how we feel about 1Q.

然後我會就季節性問題給你一些幫助。我們的業務已經有好幾年沒有季節性趨勢了。你說得對。如果回顧過去 10 至 15 年，ADI 的消費市場在第一季環比下降了 10% 以上，而工業、汽車和通訊等 B2B 市場也下降了個位數。正如文斯所說，[作為數字的一部分]考慮到我們目前的情況，我們認為數據不會比季節性數據更好。但我們會在 90 天後向您更新我們對第一季的感受。

I think the motivator for us will be what happens in industrial, in particular. And what I can tell you is that the various C-suite conversations I've had with our industrial customers would suggest that their optimism is also strong for '25.

我認為我們的動力尤其來自於工業領域發生的事情。我可以告訴你們的是，我與工業客戶進行過的各種高階主管對話表明，他們對25年也抱持強烈的樂觀態度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

瑞銀的提摩西·阿庫裡。

Thanks a lot. I just wanted to ask on that answer. So you were above seasonal fiscal Q3. You're above seasonal and fiscal Q4. Sounds like you're not willing to commit that you're going to be above seasonal in fiscal Q1. The street's modeling like 5% or 6% above seasonal for fiscal Q1.

多謝。我只是想問一下這個答案。因此，您的財務第三季的業績高於季節性業績。您超過了季節和財政第四季度。聽起來你不願意承諾第一財季的業績會高於季節性。華爾街的預測是，第一個財季的銷售額將比當季成長 5% 或 6%。

Was there something that happened in bookings? Did bookings like slow in the last couple of weeks or the last month or something to make you not want to commit to the fact that fiscal Q1 would be above seasonal or just that it's 90 days away and you just don't want to comment on it? Thanks.

預訂時發生了什麼事情嗎？是否因為最近幾週或上個月的預訂量放緩，或者其他原因，讓您不願意承認財政第一季度的銷售額將高於季節性水平，或者只是因為還有 90 天，您只是不想對此發表評論？謝謝。

I'll start out on the street expectations and then with the rest of our bookings. We never guided 1Q. I think the street expectation for 1Q. I think street is of everyone, a better than seasonal for our counter 4Q or fiscal 1Q. And I hope of other snapback. I would say, yeah, there are things that change in 90 days, but we're optimistic about '25 for the full year. We still know it's above seasonal in that outlook for the year of '25. I'll pass it to Rich to go through some of the booking dynamics.

我將首先了解街頭的期望，然後再了解其餘的預訂。我們從來沒有指導過1Q。我認為這是華爾街對第一季的預期。我認為街道對每個人來說都是比我們的櫃檯 4Q 或財政 1Q 的季節性更好的。我還希望能有其他的反彈。我想說，是的，90 天內有些事情會發生變化，但我們對全年 25 天的表現持樂觀態度。我們仍然知道，從 25 年的前景來看，其成長高於季節性。我會將其轉交給 Rich，讓他了解一些預訂動態。

Yeah. So from, Tim, from a bookings perspective, you know, up until Q2, as we talked about, we've seen three straight quarters of broad-based bookings improvement. However, Q3 was different. We saw continued bookings growth for industrial consumer and communications. But we did see automotive orders decline, which resulted in a modest drop in our total bookings during the quarter. We did still end with a book-to-bill around parity.

是的。因此，蒂姆，從預訂量的角度來看，正如我們談到的，截至第二季度，我們已經看到連續三個季度的廣泛預訂量改善。然而，第三季的情況有所不同。我們看到工業消費者和通訊領域的訂單持續成長。但我們確實看到汽車訂單下降，這導致本季的總訂單量小幅下降。我們最終的訂單出貨比仍然接近平價。

If I look at it from a geographic perspective, regionally, bookings were the weakest in Europe. Americas Americas was modestly weaker, which offset bookings growth in Asia.

如果從地理角度來看，歐洲地區的預訂量最低。美洲地區美洲地區略微走弱，抵消了亞洲地區預訂量的成長。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. It was good to see inventory on your balance sheet come down again, and you guys spoke to channel inventory coming down as well. As you look forward, what are your thoughts on utilization rates internally? How are you engaging with your foundry partners, and what's embedded in your October quarter outlook as it pertains to the channel? Thank you.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答這個問題。很高興看到資產負債表上的庫存再次下降，而且你們也談到了通路庫存下降。展望未來，您對內部利用率有何看法？您如何與代工夥伴互動？謝謝。

So, as I noted in the last call, we said both utilization and, in fact, gross margins had bottomed in Q2, and that is proving to be true. From an inventory in the channel perspective, the expectation is we will ship to end demand. We are currently at the very low end of our range in the channel at seven to eight weeks. And I think we've mentioned previously if we saw continued improvements, we would start shipping to end demand. So we will do that in the fourth quarter.

因此，正如我在上次電話會議中提到的那樣，我們說利用率和毛利率實際上都在第二季觸底，事實證明確實如此。從通路庫存角度來看，我們預期將運送至最終需求。我們目前處於七到八週的通道範圍的最低端。我想我們之前提到過，如果我們看到持續的改善，我們就會開始運送以滿足最終需求。因此我們將在第四季這樣做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Obviously, when it comes to the balance, we have a hybrid manufacturing system which enables us to keep utilization rates as high as possible internally, and when our factories run out of capacity, then we have lots of choices externally for silicon capacity. So obviously, we've got a lot of inventory on the balance sheet, and our factories are very well capable of improving utilization rates as the demand continues to improve over the coming quarters.

顯然，當談到平衡時，我們有一個混合製造系統，使我們能夠在內部保持盡可能高的利用率，當我們的工廠產能耗盡時，我們在外部有很多矽產能的選擇。因此顯然，我們的資產負債表上有很多庫存，而且隨著未來幾季需求持續改善，我們的工廠完全有能力提高利用率。

As a quick follow-up, I think your internal utilization rates last quarter were in the mid-50s, if I'm not mistaken. Are you at or above 60% at this point, or if you can comment on that.

作為一個快速的跟進，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為上個季度的內部利用率在 50 年代中期。您現在是否已達到或超過 60%？

We have to be -- given our look at the utilization towards as we give the rate, I would say there were lower last score to move in higher here in 3Q and 4Q, and there were well off the normal level, they're all called 85% to 90% utilization.

我們必須 - 鑑於我們對利用率的看法，我想說，在第三季度和第四季度，最後的得分較低，然後上升，並且遠低於正常水平，它們的利用率都達到 85％ 到 90％。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

And then I'll give you some context -- I'll give you some little context. What does this mean as utilization ramp? What does that mean for gross margins? If you look at the decline of gross margins over the past year or so, about half the decline relates to utilization, the other half relates to mix. So you can see as you listen, pick up what that means for gross margin expansion.

然後我會給你一些背景資訊——我會給你一些小背景資訊。利用率提升意味著什麼？這對毛利率意味著什麼？如果你觀察過去一年左右毛利率的下降，你會發現大約一半的下降與使用率有關，另一半與組合有關。因此，你聽著就能明白，這對毛利率擴大意味著什麼。

Helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西‧拉斯岡 (Stacy Rasgon)。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping you could give us a little more granularity on the segment guide for next quarter. And then you said industrial, and I think consumer up and auto down. Any more for the color, like is consumer usually up, is it up double digits, is industrial up mid-single, auto down by low single, like any further color you could give us on the segments would be helpful.

嗨，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。我希望您能為我們提供更多有關下個季度的細分指南的詳細資訊。然後您說工業，我認為消費品上漲，而汽車業下跌。還有更多顏色可供選擇，例如消費者通常會上漲嗎，是否上漲兩位數，工業品是否上漲中等個位數，汽車業是否下跌低個位數，如果您能給我們提供關於各個細分市場的更多顏色，那將會很有幫助。

Sure, Stacy, I'll grab that one. Yes, so let's start with consumer. You're right, consumer's up about double digits, about 10% or so embedded in our outlook. Industrial's had another also solid growth quarter, probably high single digits sequentially. We had cases about flattish plus minus, depending on kind of how things go here, and although the weak market as we discussed and hit a little bit earlier on the call, probably down low single digits sequentially.

當然，史黛西，我會抓住這個機會。是的，那麼讓我們從消費者開始。您說得對，消費者支出成長了大約兩位數，在我們的預期中大約佔 10% 左右。工業部門又度過了一個穩健的成長季度，環比成長可能達到高個位數。我們遇到過持平或正負的情況，這取決於情況如何發展，儘管市場疲軟，正如我們在電話會議上討論的那樣，可能比上一季下降了個位數。

Got it. That's helpful. If I could have a quick follow up, just how are you thinking about OpEx growth in the next quarter? It was pretty well under control this quarter. Is there anything that drives that up? Like what do you think about the OpEx trends as we're going to the end of the year?

知道了。這很有幫助。如果我可以快速跟進的話，您如何看待下一季的營運支出成長？本季情況控制得很好。有什麼因素促使了這現象的發生？接近年底，您對營運支出趨勢有何看法？

So Stacy, I'll take that one. So obviously we exceeded the high end of our outlook in the third quarter, given the beat on gross margin and revenue as well as our continued cost management. Our Q4 guide obviously does imply a modest margin contraction sequentially despite our expectation for higher revenue and gross margin. The main driver of that is our increase for merit increases that will go into effect during the fourth quarter. So that will be a downward pressure as we head into the fourth quarter.

那麼史黛西，我接受這個。因此，考慮到毛利率和收入的超出預期以及我們持續的成本管理，我們第三季的業績顯然超出了我們預期的高端。儘管我們預期收入和毛利率會更高，但我們的第四季度指引顯然意味著利潤率將環比小幅收縮。其主要驅動力是我們將於第四季開始生效的績效薪資成長。因此，當我們進入第四季度時，這將成為一個下行壓力。

I mean, the big margin on our OpEx, Stacey, is obviously the bonus. And that obviously with declining profit and revenue over the past several quarters, that dropped accordingly. Now, with increase, with growth in revenue and improvement in profitability that will obviously increase. But that's self-funding, so to speak.

我的意思是，史黛西，我們營運支出中最大的利潤顯然是獎金。顯然，隨著過去幾個季度的利潤和收入下降，這一數字也相應下降。現在，隨著收入的成長和獲利能力的提高，這個數字顯然會增加。但可以這麼說，這就是自籌資金。

Got it. How much do the OpEx go up then?

知道了。那麼營運成本會增加多少呢？

For our fourth quarter outlook, I’d say sequentially increase in our OpEx around 5%.

對於我們第四季的展望，我認為我們的營運支出將較上季成長 5% 左右。

That's great. Thanks so much. Appreciate it guys.

那太棒了。非常感謝。感謝你們。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Chris Danely, Citi.

花旗銀行的克里斯丹尼利 (Chris Danely)。

Thanks guys. First, just a little clarification on inventory in the auto market. Vince, I said it, I think at the beginning you talked about inventory is very lean out there, but then you're also saying that there's inventory digestion going on in the automotive market. Can you just expand on that a little bit?

謝謝大家。首先，稍微澄清一下汽車市場的庫存。文斯，我說過，我認為你一開始談到庫存非常少，但後來你也說汽車市場正在消化庫存。能稍微詳細說明一下嗎？

Dan, I'll grab that, and then Vince, talk about the overall customer inventory. Yes, I think every market spawned in different cases of inventory digestion. We feel good about industrial consumer comms have really normalized inventory levels. There are pockets on the auto side that's still, I'll call it digesting.

丹，我來談談這個，然後文斯，談談整體客戶庫存。是的，我認為每個市場都會催生不同的庫存消化情況。我們對工業消費者通訊確實已實現正常化庫存水準感到滿意。汽車方面仍有一些空間，我稱之為消化。

I mean, production levels have been cut over the past quarter, whether it's an ICE car or an EV car. That impact inventory levels and desire to hold inventory on their balance sheets. From that standpoint, Chris, I don't know, Vince, if you have anything to add.

我的意思是，過去一個季度，無論是內燃機汽車還是電動車，產量都已經下降。這會影響庫存水準以及在資產負債表上持有庫存的意願。從這個角度來看，克里斯，文斯，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充。

I think, Chris, overall, we've seen the worst is behind us, I think, in the industrial consumer and comms market. But automotive, I think, is a sector where we will see some inventory digestion issues into at least the early part of 2025.

克里斯，我認為，總的來說，在工業消費者和通訊市場，最糟糕的時期已經過去了。但我認為，至少在 2025 年初，汽車產業將面臨一些庫存消化問題。

Great. Thanks. That's helpful. And then just a quick clarification on industrial. How would you characterize your, I guess, booking/ visibility on the industrial market now versus three months ago? Is it roughly the same, or has it improved a little bit?

偉大的。謝謝。這很有幫助。然後簡單澄清一下工業。與三個月前相比，您如何描述現在工業市場的預訂量/知名度？大致相同，還是略有改善？

Hey, Chris, it's Rich. I would say visibility is pretty consistent. And as we talked about, we're seeing continuing growth sequentially across all of the sub-elements of industrial with the exception of automation, which we are seeing improvements, but not yet seeing growth.

嘿，克里斯，我是里奇。我想說可見度是相當一致的。正如我們所討論的，我們看到工業所有子要素都在持續成長，但自動化除外，我們看到了改進，但尚未看到成長。

Got it. Thanks, Rich.

知道了。謝謝，里奇。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So for fiscal ‘23, China domestic consumption, I think was about 18% of their total revenues, it was the worst performing geography. Last couple of quarters where bookings in China have been growing sequentially.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。因此，對於 23 財年，我認為中國國內消費約佔其總收入的 18%，這是表現最差的地區。過去幾個季度，中國的預訂量持續成長。

Did that translate into sequential revenue growth out of the region in the July quarter? And then it looks like orders from the China region grew sequentially in July. How are they trending so far quarter-to-date? Are you still seeing sort of positive signs out of this region?

這是否意味著該地區七月季度的營收連續成長？看起來七月中國地區的訂單較上季成長。本季度迄今的趨勢如何？您是否仍看到該地區的正面跡象？

Yeah, we continue to see strong performance from a bookings perspective in China. We did see double digit growth across industrial, auto and comms being slightly offset by a decrease in consumer. So China does continue to perform well. And our design win and our pipeline there are very strong.

是的，從預訂量的角度來看，我們繼續看到中國市場的強勁表現。我們確實看到工業、汽車和通訊領域的兩位數成長被消費者領域的下降略微抵消。因此中國確實繼續表現良好。我們的設計成果和管道都非常強大。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Joshua Butler, TD Cowen.

約書亞·巴特勒（Joshua Butler），TD Cowen 公司。

Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. Maybe you can walk through some of the puts and takes into gross margin into the October quarter. Back the envelope, I'm getting to roughly stable sequentially despite the revenue increase and I imagine utilization is improving as well. How much of that is mixed? And in particular, is there any changes in the pricing environment as we get sort of through this digestion into what I would imagine is a more competitive environment. Thank you.

嘿，夥計們，謝謝你們回答我的問題。也許您可以介紹一下 10 月份季度毛利率的一些影響因素。回顧一下，儘管收入增加，但我的表現仍大致保持穩定，我想利用率也在提高。其中有多少是混合的？特別是，當我們透過這種消化過程進入一個我想像的更具競爭力的環境時，定價環境是否會發生任何變化？謝謝。

Yes. I'd say it's, as we previously mentioned, it is significantly impacted by the favorable mix. Obviously, we get a benefit out of the revenue upside. From a pricing perspective, and I've talked about this before, we continue to see pretty stable pricing, and I do expect that to continue. Obviously, it's different by geography and for big and small customers, but on balance, we are continuing to see stable pricing, and I expect we will see that going forward.

是的。我想說，正如我們之前提到的，它受到有利組合的顯著影響。顯然，我們從收入成長中獲益。從定價的角度來看，我之前已經談過這個問題，我們繼續看到相當穩定的價格，而且我確實希望這種情況能持續下去。顯然，不同地區、大客戶和小客戶的情況有所不同，但總的來說，我們繼續看到穩定的價格，我預計未來我們會看到這種情況。

Once our products are installed in a particular customer's design, they tend to, in the industrial business, they will stay for decades, and pricing is very, very stable there. Where the pricing, or the competitiveness, is for new sockets, new wins, but nothing is new there. Now, we as a company -- we play in the high end of the game in terms of innovation, service, support, and so on and so forth.

一旦我們的產品安裝在特定客戶的設計中，它們往往會在工業業務中停留數十年，定價非常非常穩定。定價或競爭力在於新的插座、新的勝利，但沒有什麼新的。現在，作為一家公司，我們在創新、服務、支援等方面處於領先地位。

So that's the game we play. In the game we will continue to play. We significantly higher ASPs than most. And those ASPs increase with each new generation of product. So I think overall, as Rich said, the pricing environment is stable. And so I don't see that as a headwind on margin.

這就是我們玩的遊戲。在比賽中我們還會繼續比賽。我們的平均售價明顯高於大多數公司。隨著每一代新產品的推出，這些 ASP 都會隨之增加。因此我認為總體而言，正如里奇所說，定價環境是穩定的。因此，我並不認為這會對利潤造成不利影響。

Thanks, Josh. I think that's all the time we have for questions today. I thought we had a little more time, but it's August. You guys can go out there and enjoy the weather a bit. So thanks for joining us, all. We look forward to future calls with you guys, and have a great rest of summer.

謝謝，喬希。我想今天我們回答問題的時間就這麼多了。我以為我們還有更多時間，但現在已經是八月了。你們可以出去享受天氣。感謝大家加入我們。我們期待與你們未來的通話，並祝福你們有個愉快的夏天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 ADI 公司電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。