亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web. I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Sir, the floor is yours.

早安，歡迎參加 Analog Devices 2023 財年第四季財報電話會議，該電話會議正在透過電話和網路進行音訊網路直播。現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁 Michael Lucarelli 先生。先生，地板是你的了。

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our fourth quarter fiscal 2023 conference call. With me on the call today are ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche; and ADI's Interim CFO, Jim Mollica. For anyone who missed the release, you can find it relating financial schedules at investor.analog.com.

大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2023 財年第四季電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 ADI 執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche；以及 ADI 臨時財務長 Jim Mollica。對於錯過本次發布的人，您可以在 Investor.analog.com 上找到與財務時間表相關的資訊。

On our disclosures, the information we're about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and as further described in our earnings release and other periodic reports and other materials filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking information. These statements reflect our expectations only as the call today. We undertake no obligation to update these statements, except as required by law.

在我們揭露的資訊中，我們將討論的資訊包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，並在我們的收益發布和其他定期報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他資料中進行了進一步描述。實際結果可能與前瞻性資訊有重大差異。這些聲明僅反映了我們今天的電話會議的期望。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

Our references to gross and operating margin, operating and non-op expenses, tax rate, EPS and free cash flow will be on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes special items. When comparing our results to our hysterical performance, special items are also excluded from our prior periods.

我們對毛利率和營業利潤率、營業和非營業費用、稅率、每股收益和自由現金流的參考將基於非公認會計原則（Non-GAAP），其中不包括特殊項目。當將我們的結果與我們歇斯底里的表現進行比較時，特殊項目也被排除在我們之前的時期之外。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release.

這些非公認會計準則衡量指標與其最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量指標的對帳以及有關我們非公認會計準則衡量指標的其他資訊均包含在今天的收益發布中。

Two comments before we go prepared remarks. We adjusted our mapping to better align revenue to customer end markets. This resulted in slight changes in our end market mix with industrial increasing in each of the other markets slightly lower. These changes are reflected on our web schedule in the quarterly results section for the last 3 years. And second, 1 more quick reminder, the first quarter of 2024 is a 14-week quarter. And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent.

在我們出​​發之前有兩個評論是準備好的評論。我們調整了映射，以更好地使收入與客戶終端市場保持一致。這導致我們的終端市場結構略有變化，其他市場的工業成長略有下降。這些變化反映在我們過去 3 年季度業績部分的網路時間表中。其次，再快速提醒一下，2024 年第一季是一個為期 14 週的季度。接下來，我會將其交給 ADI 執行長兼董事長 Vincent。

Thank you very much, Mike, and a very good morning to you all. Though the industry is obviously moving through a more challenging period of the business cycle, I'm very pleased to share that we're preserving the strength of our financial performance while preparing for the market's recovery.

非常感謝你，麥克，祝大家早安。儘管該行業顯然正在經歷商業週期中更具挑戰性的時期，但我很高興地告訴大家，我們正在保持財務業績的強勁勢頭，同時為市場復甦做好準備。

Fourth quarter revenue was $2.7 billion, led by double-digit year-over-year growth in our automotive sector. The combination of careful expense management and our employees' commitment to high standards of execution enabled us to deliver operating margins of 44.7% and EPS of $2.01 for the quarter. For the fiscal year, '23 again set new high watermarks with revenue reaching $12.3 billion, supported by all-time highs in the industrial and automotive sectors. This resulted in EPS of $10.09 up 5% from a year ago. Notably, we returned a record $4.6 billion to shareholders in 2023, exceeding our 100% free cash flow return target.

第四季營收為 27 億美元，主要得益於汽車產業兩位數的年增率。謹慎的費用管理和員工對高執行標準的承諾相結合，使我們本季的營業利潤率為 44.7%，每股收益為 2.01 美元。在工業和汽車產業創歷史新高的支撐下，'23 財年再次創下新高，營收達到 123 億美元。這導致 EPS 為 10.09 美元，比去年同期增長 5%。值得注意的是，我們在 2023 年向股東返還了創紀錄的 46 億美元，超過了我們 100% 的自由現金流回報目標。

Since the closing of Maxim just over 2 years ago, ADI has returned roughly $12 billion to shareholders or nearly 15% of our market cap. Over the same time, we've reduced our share count by more than 6% and increased our dividend per share by 25%.

自兩年多前關閉 Maxim 以來，ADI 已向股東返還約 120 億美元，占我們市值的近 15%。同時，我們的股份數量減少了 6% 以上，每股股息增加了 25%。

Now looking to fiscal '24, the near-term dynamics remain uncertain. As you will recall, last quarter, we outlined a broad-based inventory correction across all markets and geographies, reflecting the deteriorating macro conditions and our improving lead times. Consistent with our view 90 days ago, we expect the customer inventory overhang to persist through the first half of the year.

現在展望 24 財年，近期動態仍不確定。您可能還記得，上個季度，我們概述了所有市場和地區的廣泛庫存調整，反映了不斷惡化的宏觀環境和不斷改善的交貨時間。與我們 90 天前的觀點一致，我們預計客戶庫存過剩將持續到今年上半年。

Challenging times like these confirm the wisdom and the strength of our business model. The diversification of our business across customers, applications and products helps to limit volatility while preserving profitability. Building upon that foundation, we took actions to better ensure we can deliver operating margins in the low 40s and solid free cash flow despite the revenue decline.

像這樣充滿挑戰的時代證實了我們商業模式的智慧和力量。我們在客戶、應用程式和產品方面的業務多元化有助於限制波動性，同時保持獲利能力。在此基礎上，我們採取了行動，以更好地確保我們能夠在收入下降的情況下實現 40 左右的營業利潤率和穩定的自由現金流。

Importantly, however, we're not simply battening down the hatches. A resilient financial model enables us to continue making the strategic investments necessary to allow us to capitalize on the upside when the business inflects higher. That longer-term focus and commitment is why our customers have the confidence to increasingly depend on us as a key strategic partner. I've been very heartened by my conversations with customers across many markets and geographies over this past quarter.

然而，重要的是，我們並不是簡單地做好準備。富有彈性的財務模型使我們能夠繼續進行必要的策略性投資，使我們能夠在業務波動較高時利用上行空間。這種長期關注和承諾是我們的客戶有信心越來越依賴我們作為關鍵策略合作夥伴的原因。在過去的一個季度中，我與許多市場和地區的客戶進行了交談，這讓我深受鼓舞。

Despite the near-term challenges, they share our optimism that the intelligent edge is enabling a future replete with opportunity, and they are clear about the expanding role that they expect ADI to play in their success. Our customers' optimism is reflected in the continued expansion of our design win pipeline, which increased by double digits again in 2023. That growth was enhanced by sustained momentum in our Maxim revenue synergies pipeline, which is tracking ahead of our initial expectations.

儘管近期面臨挑戰，但他們與我們一樣樂觀，認為智慧優勢將創造一個充滿機會的未來，並且他們清楚期望 ADI 在他們的成功中發揮不斷擴大的作用。我們客戶的樂觀情緒體現在我們設計贏得管道的持續擴張上，該管道在2023 年再次實現兩位數增長。Maxim 收入協同管道的持續增長勢頭增強了這一增長，該管道的進展超出了我們最初的預期。

We expect synergy-driven revenue acceleration in 2025 putting us on a path to achieve our goal of more than $1 billion in revenue synergy by 2027. The combination of our strong design win growth with recurring revenue streams from our 75,000 product SKUs, which have average life span of a decade or more creates a business with high barriers to entry that's both resilient and rich with growth opportunities.

我們預計 2025 年協同驅動的收入加速成長，使我們能夠實現到 2027 年收入協同效應超過 10 億美元的目標。我們強大的設計與來自 75,000 個產品 SKU 的經常性收入流相結合，贏得了成長。十年或更長時間的生命週期創造了一個具有高進入障礙的企業，該企業既具有彈性又充滿成長機會。

Now let me share some examples of recent wins with you. In Industrial Automation, we're increasingly delivering more complete solutions. At a top digital factory automation supplier, for example, we recently leveraged our anchor position in software configurable I/O to attach additional solutions value across power, isolation and connectivity. As a result, we captured 3x the bill of materials and secured design wins across their entire platform.

現在讓我與您分享一些最近取得的勝利的例子。在工業自動化領域，我們越來越多地提供更完整的解決方案。例如，在一家頂級數位工廠自動化供應商中，我們最近利用我們在軟體可配置 I/O 領域的錨定地位，在電源、隔離和連接方面附加了額外的解決方案價值。結果，我們獲得了 3 倍的物料清單，並在整個平台上贏得了設計勝利。

In Industrial Instrumentation, we've increased our design wins at SOC and memory test market leaders. Our next-generation solutions, increased channel density and throughput while reducing energy consumption by up to an incredible 30% per system. These are critical parameters for testing complex, high-performance compute GPUs and high-bandwidth memory for artificial intelligence systems.

在工業儀器領域，我們在 SOC 和記憶體測試市場領導者的設計中贏得了更多勝利。我們的下一代解決方案提高了通道密度和吞吐量，同時將每個系統的能耗降低了高達 30%，這令人難以置信。這些是測試人工智慧系統複雜、高效能運算 GPU 和高頻寬記憶體的關鍵參數。

Looking now to automotive. In electrification, momentum continues for our wireless battery management system. This novel solution enables lower weight, greater scalability and improved manufacturing productivity, driving down the total cost of ownership for our customers while increasing ADI's content. Last quarter, we secured our fifth customer, a top 10 EV OEM, we'll begin to deploy our wireless solution in their next-gen EVs in 2026.

現在轉向汽車。在電氣化領域，我們的無線電池管理系統持續保持強勁勢頭。這種新穎的解決方案可實現更輕的重量、更大的可擴展性和更高的製造生產率，從而降低客戶的總擁有成本，同時增加 ADI 的內容。上季度，我們獲得了第五個客戶，排名前 10 位的電動車 OEM，我們將於 2026 年開始在他們的下一代電動車中部署我們的無線解決方案。

Now furthermore, during the year, ADI reinforced our industry-leading position in automotive, high-performance functionally save power. To that end, we won next-generation power for ADAS systems at 4 top suppliers this past year. These wins add another growth vector to our automotive franchise, which has benefited from strong momentum across electrification and in-cabin connectivity.

此外，在這一年中，ADI 鞏固了我們在汽車、高性能節能功能方面的行業領先地位。為此，我們去年從 4 家頂級供應商獲得了 ADAS 系統的下一代電源。這些勝利為我們的汽車特許經營權增添了另一個增長動力，該特許經營權受益於電氣化和車內連接的強勁勢頭。

This proliferation of ADAS is benefiting our high-speed GMSL connectivity portfolio. GMSL has been 1 of our fastest-growing areas and a major revenue synergy generator for us. In the last year, we were awarded 4 new wins across leading North American, Asian and European OEMs. We're also expanding our opportunity and increasing our ROI, winning multiple design wins in industrial areas in adjacent areas such as autonomous robotic systems.

ADAS 的普及使我們的高速 GMSL 連線產品組合受益。 GMSL 是我們成長最快的領域之一，也是我們主要的營收協同來源。去年，我們在北美、亞洲和歐洲領先的 OEM 廠商中贏得了 4 項新勝利。我們還擴大了機會並提高了投資回報率，在鄰近領域的工業領域（例如自主機器人系統）贏得了許多設計勝利。

Our cloud infrastructure business is beginning to benefit from the power challenges and connectivity requirements necessary in AI ML systems. Notably, a large hyperscaler designed our high-performance power and protection solutions into their next-generation AI platform. And in connectivity, systems are upgrading now to [1. terabit] per second and require our highest level of precision control solutions to efficiently support the growth in data generation.

我們的雲端基礎設施業務開始受益於 AI ML 系統所需的電源挑戰和連接要求。值得注意的是，一家大型超大規模企業將我們的高效能電源和保護解決方案設計到了他們的下一代人工智慧平台。在連接方面，系統現在正在升級到[1。太比特]每秒，需要我們最高水準的精度控制解決方案來有效支援資料產生的成長。

In consumer, we won multiple power management sockets in a portable application and a key customer. These wins truly show the combinatorial power of our acquisition strategy. We leveraged our industry-leading cell and switcher, Maxim's cost optimized process technology and our customer relationships to secure these wins.

在消費領域，我們贏得了便攜式應用中的多個電源管理插座和一個關鍵客戶。這些勝利真正展現了我們收購策略的組合力量。我們利用業界領先的單元和切換器、Maxim 的成本優化製程技術以及我們的客戶關係來確保這些勝利。

And lastly, in Healthcare, Maxim strengthened our comprehensive suite of technology for personal monitoring solutions, adding sensor AFEs, microcontrollers and ultra-low power technologies. We secured a design win at a leading continuous glucose monitoring customer this year. Our solution increases the robustness, accuracy and power efficiency of their glucose center, thereby helping to extend its life from days to weeks.

最後，在醫療保健領域，Maxim 增強了我們用於個人監控解決方案的綜合技術套件，並添加了感測器 AFE、微控制器和超低功耗技術。今年，我們贏得了一家領先的連續血糖監測客戶的設計勝利。我們的解決方案提高了葡萄糖中心的穩健性、準確性和功率效率，有助於將其壽命從幾天延長到幾週。

So in summary, we're proud of another year of record revenue and earnings. We continue to demonstrate the power of our business model, which delivers results through all phases of the business cycle. Our continued strong investments in technology and business innovation, customer engagement, and our hybrid manufacturing model positions ADI and our customers to take maximum advantage of the opportunities at the intelligent edge when the business recovery arrives.

總而言之，我們為又一年創紀錄的收入和收益感到自豪。我們繼續展示我們業務模式的力量，該模式在業務週期的所有階段都取得了成果。我們在技術和業務創新、客戶參與以及混合製造模式方面持續大力投資，使 ADI 和我們的客戶能夠在業務復甦到來時最大限度地利用智慧邊緣的機會。

Now I'd like to pass the call over to Jim. Over the past 35 years, Jim has taken on a number of critical financial leadership roles across ADI, enabling him to develop a breadth and depth of understanding of our business that very, very few possess. So I'm pleased now to have him on my leadership team and to be joined by Jim on today's call. Over to you, Jim.

現在我想把電話轉給吉姆。在過去的 35 年裡，Jim 在 ADI 擔任過許多重要的財務領導職務，這使他能夠對我們的業務產生廣度和深度的理解，這是很少有人具備的。因此，我現在很高興讓他加入我的領導團隊，並邀請吉姆參加今天的電話會議。交給你了，吉姆。

Thank you for that introduction, Vince, I'm excited to be here today, and let me add my welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. Starting with a brief recap of fiscal 2023 results. Revenue increased 2% to $12.3 billion, marking ADI's third consecutive record year. Gross margin of 72.5% moderated from last year's record results of 73.6%. Operating margin of 48.9% decreased 50 basis points, roughly half the decline of gross margin, reflecting strong operating expense control. All told, EPS increased 5% to a record $10.09.

謝謝你的介紹，文斯，我很高興今天來到這裡，並讓我對我們第四季財報電話會議表示歡迎。首先簡要回顧 2023 財年業績。營收成長 2%，達到 123 億美元，標誌著 ADI 連續第三年創紀錄。毛利率從去年創紀錄的 73.6% 下降至 72.5%。營業利益率為 48.9%，下降 50 個基點，約為毛利率下降的一半，反映出強而有力的營業費用控制。總而言之，每股收益成長 5%，達到創紀錄的 10.09 美元。

Now moving to fourth quarter results. Revenue of $2.72 billion declined 12% sequentially and 16% year-over-year, finishing above the midpoint of our outlook despite the challenging operating environment. Industrial represented 50% of quarterly revenue, declining 19% sequentially and 20% year-over-year. As expected, we experienced broad-based weakness as inventory adjustments continued across our diverse customer base. For the full year, Industrial increased 6%, achieving its third straight record result with strength across instrumentation, test, energy and aerospace and defense.

現在轉向第四季的業績。儘管營運環境充滿挑戰，但營收為 27.2 億美元，季減 12%，年減 16%，最終高於我們預期的中點。工業佔季度營收的 50%，季減 19%，年減 20%。正如預期的那樣，隨著我們多元化客戶群的庫存調整持續進行，我們經歷了廣泛的疲軟。工業部門全年成長 6%，連續第三次創下歷史新高，在儀器儀表、測試、能源、航空航太和國防領域表現強勁。

Automotive, which represented 27% of quarterly revenue was down slightly sequentially and up 14% year-over-year, marking 12 straight quarters of double-digit growth. For the year, Automotive also achieved its third straight record result, increasing 19%, with strong growth across our functionally safe power, battery management and in cabin connectivity solutions. Collectively, these were up more than 30%.

汽車業務佔季度營收的 27%，環比略有下降，較去年同期成長 14%，連續 12 個季度實現兩位數成長。今年，汽車業務還實現了連續第三次創紀錄的業績，增長了 19%，我們的功能安全電源、電池管理和車內連接解決方案實現了強勁增長。總的來說，這些漲幅超過 30%。

Communications, which represented 13% of quarterly revenue declined 6% sequentially and 32% versus a record fourth quarter 2022. For the year, Communications decreased 13%, with steeper declines in wireless versus wireline. And lastly, Consumer represented 11% of quarterly revenue, down 6% sequentially and 28% year-over-year. Consumer decreased 20% in fiscal 2023, driven by industry-wide weaker demand and ongoing inventory corrections.

佔季度收入13% 的通訊業務比上一季下降了6%，與創紀錄的2022 年第四季相比下降了32%。全年通訊業務下降了13%，其中無線業務比有線業務下降幅度更大。最後，消費者業務佔季度營收的 11%，比上一季下降 6%，比去年同期下降 28%。由於全行業需求疲軟和持續的庫存調整，2023 財年消費者支出下降了 20%。

Now on to the rest of the P&L. Fourth quarter gross margin was 70.2%, down sequentially and year-over-year driven by unfavorable product mix, lower factory utilizations and lower revenue. OpEx in the quarter was $692 million, down $60 million sequentially. These significant savings were driven by disciplined expense management and lower variable compensation. As a result, operating margin came in at the higher end of our outlook of 44.7%.

現在來看看損益表的其餘部分。第四季毛利率為 70.2%，因產品結構不利、工廠利用率降低和收入下降而較上季和年減。本季營運支出為 6.92 億美元，比上一季減少 6,000 萬美元。這些顯著的節省是由嚴格的費用管理和較低的可變薪酬所推動的。因此，營業利益率達到了我們預期的上限 44.7%。

Non-op expense finished at $65 million and the tax rate for the quarter was 12.5%. All told, EPS was $2.01, slightly above our outlook.

非營運費用最終為 6,500 萬美元，該季度的稅率為 12.5%。總而言之，每股收益為 2.01 美元，略高於我們的預期。

Now on to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with approximately $1 billion of cash and cash equivalents and a net leverage ratio of 0.9x. Inventory decreased nearly $70 million sequentially, driven by finished goods. Channel inventory also declined as we actively manage sell-in to be less than sell-through. Given lower revenue, inventory days increased to 188 and channel weeks ticked up slightly, ending within our target range of 7 to 8 weeks.

現在來看資產負債表。本季結束時，我們擁有約 10 億美元的現金和現金等價物，淨槓桿率 0.9 倍。在製成品的推動下，庫存較上月減少近 7,000 萬美元。由於我們積極管理銷售量低於售出量，通路庫存也有所下降。鑑於收入下降，庫存天數增加至 188 天，通路週數略有增加，最終落在我們 7 至 8 週的目標範圍內。

Now moving on to our cash flow items. Operating cash for the quarter and the year was $1.2 billion and $4.8 billion, respectively. CapEx for the quarter was $476 million and for fiscal 2023 was $1.3 billion. These CapEx numbers are gross figures, which do not include the benefits of the investment tax credits or grants related to both the U.S. and European Chips Act. Full year free cash flow was $3.6 billion or 29% of revenue. During the year, we returned 130% of free cash flow via roughly $3 billion in share repurchases and $1.7 billion in dividends.

現在轉向我們的現金流項目。本季和本年度的營運現金分別為 12 億美元和 48 億美元。本季的資本支出為 4.76 億美元，2023 財年的資本支出為 13 億美元。這些資本支出數字是總數字，不包括與美國和歐洲晶片法案相關的投資稅收抵免或補助金的好處。全年自由現金流為 36 億美元，佔營收的 29%。這一年，我們透過約 30 億美元的股票回購和 17 億美元的股息返還了 130% 的自由現金流。

Now moving on to the guidance for the first quarter, which will be on a 14-week basis. First quarter revenue is expected to be $2.5 billion, plus or minus $100 million. Once again, we expect sell-through to be higher than sell-in. At the midpoint, we expect all end markets to be down sequentially. Industrial is expected to be down the most, followed by Consumer and Comms with Automotive faring the best. Operating margin is expected to be 41.5%, plus or minus 70 basis points. Our tax rate is expected to be 11% to 13%, and based on these inputs, adjusted EPS is expected to be $1.70 plus or minus $0.10.

現在轉向第一季的指導，該指導將以 14 週為基礎。第一季營收預估為 25 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。我們再次預計銷售量將高於銷售量。在中點，我們預期所有終端市場都將依序下跌。預計工業行業跌幅最大，其次是消費和通訊行業，其中汽車行業表現最佳。營業利益率預計為 41.5%，上下浮動 70 個基點。我們的稅率預計為 11% 至 13%，根據這些投入，調整後每股收益預計為 1.70 美元加減 0.10 美元。

I will conclude my remarks with a brief update on the current operating backdrop. As Vince mentioned, we continue to see broad-based weakness across markets and geographies as customers work to reduce inventory and a stressed macro backdrop. Importantly, our lead times are now back to normal levels with 95% of our products shipping within 13 weeks, given our customers high confidence and timely supply. Encouragingly, during the fourth quarter, we've seen cancellations fall and bookings stabilize. This gives us greater confidence that the ongoing inventory correction will taper through the first half of the fiscal year.

在結束演講時，我將簡要介紹當前的營運背景。正如文斯所提到的，隨著客戶努力減少庫存和緊張的宏觀背景，我們繼續看到各個市場和地區普遍疲軟。重要的是，由於我們的客戶高度信任和及時供應，我們的交貨時間現已恢復到正常水平，95% 的產品在 13 週內發貨。令人鼓舞的是，第四季取消航班數量有所下降，預訂量趨於穩定。這讓我們更有信心，正在進行的庫存調整將在本財年上半年逐漸減少。

As we discussed last time, we've taken actions to preserve the integrity of our income statement, our balance sheet and our cash flow statements. Let me provide an update in these areas. We are once again lowering internal utilizations with a goal of significantly reducing inventory in the first half of the year. Our hybrid manufacturing model and ability to swing in external wafers will help us moderate the decline in factory starts. The unique ability positions us to deliver healthy gross margins despite the significant revenue decline from a year ago.

正如我們上次討論的那樣，我們已採取措施保持損益表、資產負債表和現金流量表的完整性。讓我提供這些領域的最新情況。我們再次降低內部利用率，目標是在今年上半年大幅減少庫存。我們的混合製造模式和使用外部晶圓的能力將有助於我們減緩工廠開工率的下降。儘管收入較一年前大幅下降，但這種獨特的能力使我們能夠實現健康的毛利率。

Given the enhancements made to our hybrid manufacturing model over the last 2 years, we now plan to slow the expansion of our internal fabs and back-end facilities. As a result, we expect 2024 CapEx to be between $600 million and $800 million or down about 45% versus 2023. Importantly, this CapEx reduction does not compromise our long-term growth or resiliency efforts that gives customers multiple locations to source ADI supply.

鑑於過去兩年我們的混合製造模式得到了增強，我們現在計劃放慢內部工廠和後端設施的擴張速度。因此，我們預計2024 年的資本支出將在6 億至8 億美元之間，或比2023 年下降約45%。重要的是，這種資本支出的減少不會損害我們的長期成長或彈性努力，讓客戶能夠在多個地點採購ADI 供應。

And lastly, we took additional steps to structurally reduce our OpEx. These actions, combined with lower variable comp and seasonally lower spend in the first quarter will result in a slight decline in OpEx sequentially even with the extra week.

最後，我們採取了額外的措施從結構上減少我們的營運支出。這些行動，再加上第一季可變薪酬的降低和季節性支出的降低，將導致營運支出連續略有下降，即使多了一周也是如此。

So in closing, our ability to generate operating margins in the low 40s, which were our previous highs in the last cycle demonstrates the durability of this franchise and how we've enhanced our operating model over time. And with that, I'll give it back to Mike for Q&A.

因此，最後，我們能夠在40 多歲左右創造營業利潤，這是我們在上一個週期中的先前高點，這證明了該特許經營權的持久性以及我們如何隨著時間的推移增強我們的運營模式。然後，我會將其退還給麥克進行問答。

Thanks, Jim. Welcome to the call. It's great to have you. Now let's get to the Q&A session. We ask that you limit yourself to 1 question in order to allow for additional participants on the call this morning. If you have a follow up question please requeue. We will take your question if time allows. With that, we will have our first question please.

謝謝，吉姆。歡迎來電。很高興有你。現在讓我們進入問答環節。我們要求您將自己的問題限制在 1 個以內，以便今天早上的電話會議中有更多參與者。如果您有後續問題，請重新排隊。如果時間允許，我們會回答您的問題。那麼，我們將提出第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Vince, it looks like order has been restored in the diversified Analog world with -- it looks like a very normal cyclical downturn and with you, what you've built is a structurally more profitable company holding to 40% -- low 40% operating margin line. My question is on a bottoming process. And I know we're not there yet, but can you just remind us or help us understand metrics you're following regarding cancellations, pushouts, backlog, you did talk about cancellations, Jim. And then kind of related to that, is if you look at past cycles, does automotive needs to go down double-digit year-over-year decline as industrial has been there? And how should we think about that?

文斯，多元化的模擬世界的秩序似乎已經恢復，這看起來是一個非常正常的周期性衰退，而在你看來，你所建立的是一家結構上利潤更高的公司，持有40%的股份，營運率低於40%邊緣線。我的問題是關於觸底過程。我知道我們還沒有做到這一點，但是您能否提醒我們或幫助我們了解您所遵循的有關取消、推遲、積壓的指標，吉姆，您確實談到了取消。與此相關的是，如果你看看過去的周期，汽車產業是否需要像工業產業一樣出現兩位數的年減？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Ambrish, and thank you for the question. So yes, we noted last quarter that we believe the inventory digestion issue would last 2 to 3 quarters. And I'd say, given the new information that we have, our conviction of that has actually grown. We have, through careful analysis and observation, we've seen inventory digestion accelerate at our largest direct customers across the board and across all the various segments that we support. And we're continuing to reduce our channel inventories as well.

安布里什，謝謝你的提問。所以，是的，我們上季指出，我們認為庫存消化問題將持續 2 到 3 個季度。我想說，鑑於我們掌握的新信息，我們對此的信念實際上已經增強。透過仔細的分析和觀察，我們發現我們最大的直接客戶以及我們支持的所有各個細分市場的庫存消化速度都在加速。我們也將繼續減少渠道庫存。

So I think very encouragingly, even with normalized lead times, as we've said, we're shipping that kind of 95% of customer requests within a quarter, which is very, very normal. We saw against that backdrop, a sharp drop in cancellations, and though the book-to-bill was below unity in the fourth quarter. We did see our bookings improve sequentially. So that gives us a lot of confidence as to what's going on.

因此，我認為非常令人鼓舞的是，即使交貨時間正常化，正如我們所說，我們也能在一個季度內滿足 95% 的客戶請求，這是非常非常正常的。在這種背景下，我們看到訂單取消量急劇下降，儘管第四季度的訂單出貨量低於統一水準。我們確實看到我們的預訂量連續增加。這讓我們對正在發生的事情充滿信心。

Regarding Automotive, I'm not sure, by the way. The automotive -- the assumption you're making is that there could be a double-digit drop in Automotive. I'm not sure about that because we know that cars are consuming about 10% more silicon per year. And in fact, we continue to grow in share and ASP in the car. So my own sense is that against what could be a very challenging macro backdrop during 2024, that of all the elements of our portfolio, automotive, we expect will fare best of them all. And we still have pretty strong confidence that we'll grow in 2024.

順便說一句，關於汽車，我不確定。汽車產業－您所做的假設是汽車產業可能會出現兩位數的下降。我對此不太確定，因為我們知道汽車每年消耗的矽增加約 10%。事實上，我們在汽車領域的份額和平均售價持續成長。因此，我個人的感覺是，在 2024 年可能極具挑戰性的宏觀背景下，在我們投資組合的所有要素中，汽車，我們預計將表現最好。我們仍然對 2024 年的成長充滿信心。

Next question please.

請下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

Vince, I'm trying to reconcile the comments that were made about some stabilization in bookings. That sounds like a positive. But I think in the prepared remarks, you also said some headwinds that could persist through the first half of the fiscal year, suggesting that April could be a sub-seasonal quarter.

文斯，我正在努力協調預訂穩定的評論。這聽起來是正面的。但我認為在準備好的演講中，您也提到了一些可能持續到本財年上半年的不利因素，這表明四月份可能是一個次季節季度。

So I know you're not guiding specifically out to April, but what is the right way to look at the puts and takes as we think about April? Can it be seasonal, whether it not be seasonal? And also this extra week from January, did that really give you that 7.5% push, so we should be taking that out of April. So any way to help us give us a sense for how the April could shape up would be very helpful.

所以我知道你並沒有專門指導四月份的情況，但是當我們考慮四月時，看待看跌期權和看跌期權的正確方法是什麼？是否可以季節性，是否可以不季節性？而且從 1 月開始額外的一周，這確實為你帶來了 7.5% 的推動力，所以我們應該把它從 4 月剔除。因此，任何能夠幫助我們了解四月的情況的方法都會非常有幫助。

Yes. Well, I think it's -- Vivek, thank you for the question. It's 1 quarter at a time here. What I will say contextually is that we expect the inventory overhang to have been depleted by the start of our third quarter, which is in May of next year. So, we still remain pretty confident about that, given the dynamics that I just outlined.

是的。嗯，我想是－－Vivek，謝謝你的提問。這裡一次是一個季度。我要結合上下文說的是，我們預計庫存過剩將在第三季初（即明年 5 月）之前耗盡。因此，考慮到我剛才概述的動態，我們對此仍然非常有信心。

But the other parts of the cycle that we're really -- I think everybody is seeing pressure from is the macroeconomic climate and particularly the decline of semi business in China. So that's the piece. I mean that is the piece that isn't well understood. But all that said, the macro will be the governor on what happens in the second half of the year. And I think another quarter or so will give us a lot more confidence in terms of what is possible in the second half. But I'll let Jim answer as well give you some particular statistics to underpin our assumptions here.

但我認為每個人都看到了宏觀經濟環境帶來的壓力，特別是中國半導體產業的衰退。這就是作品。我的意思是這是一個不太被理解的部分。但話雖如此，宏觀經濟將成為下半年走勢的調控者。我認為再過一個季度左右將使我們對下半年的可能性更有信心。但我會讓吉姆回答，同時也給你一些具體的統計數據來支持我們的假設。

Thanks, Vince. Yes, let me just speak to -- let me unpack lead times a bit first. As we said, lead times are now kind of back to where they were, 95% of our products are shipping within 13 weeks. And we've seen steady improvement in lead times in both 3Q and 4Q. And I guess from the refreshing side of that is from a customer viewpoint, customers have now adjusted to those shorter lead times. And our order rates basically in the fourth quarter basically stabilized in fact, picked up in 4Q versus 3Q. So that's good news for us as the customers have shopped and their signal into us. As Vince said, our book-to-bill will still be low on there, but it is kind of the first lines there.

謝謝，文斯。是的，讓我先談談交貨時間。正如我們所說，交貨時間現在已恢復到原來的水平，我們 95% 的產品可在 13 週內發貨。我們看到第三季和第四季的交貨時間穩定改善。我想從客戶的角度來看，令人耳目一新的一面是，客戶現在已經適應了更短的交貨時間。事實上，我們第四季的訂單率基本上基本上已經穩定，第四季比第三季有所回升。所以這對我們來說是個好消息，因為顧客已經購物並向我們發出了信號。正如文斯所說，我們的訂單出貨量仍然很低，但這只是那裡的第一行。

Additionally, cancellations in the fourth quarter were down meaningfully for the first time and probably close to a year. And cancellations on a shorter time fence were also very, very low. So that's good for us.

此外，第四季的取消訂單量首次大幅下降，可能是近一年來的首次。而且較短時間範圍內的取消也非常非常低。所以這對我們有好處。

From a channel perspective, we're being cautious. We continue to basically ship into the channel less than our sell-through, which basically will position us well for when the upswing occurs. And from an end market viewpoint, let me just close on that point. All markets in 1Q will be down on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Yes, that's it. Mike, anything else?

從通路角度來看，我們持謹慎態度。我們進入通道的出貨量基本上仍低於我們的銷售量，這基本上將使我們在上漲發生時處於有利地位。從終端市場的角度來看，讓我結束這一點。一季所有市場都將環比下跌。對，就是那樣。麥克，還有什麼嗎？

Yes. And it's very confusing with a 13- to 14-week card, you're right, Vivek. I'll kind of add some commentary around that, how to think about that. Normally, 2Q from 1Q and a 13-week to 13-week basis up about 5%. And given what have been said, inventory overhang and bookings getting better. It still feels like we should probably grow some, but I don't think 5% is likely. Why? There's still an inventory overhang going on.

是的。 13 到 14 週的卡片非常令人困惑，你是對的，Vivek。我會圍繞這個問題添加一些評論，以及如何思考這個問題。正常情況下，2Q較1Q以及13週至13週為基礎上漲5%左右。綜上所述，庫存過剩和預訂情況正在改善。仍然感覺我們應該種植一些，但我認為 5% 的可能性不大。為什麼？庫存過剩仍然存在。

So if you think 13-week to 13-week were about flattish, plus or minus, in 1Q to 2Q, that's probably the way to think about it. That means if you include the extra week, it's probably down about 5% plus or minus sequentially. So I hope that helps back a little bit because it is confusing. And with that we go to our next question, please.

因此，如果您認為第 1 季到第 2 季的 13 週到 13 週基本上持平，無論是正值還是負值，那麼可能就是這樣考慮的。這意味著，如果算上額外一週的時間，可能會連續下降約 5% 左右。所以我希望這能有所幫助，因為這很令人困惑。接下來我們進入下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

Great. I wonder, I mean now that you're in a revenue downturn that looks more severe than we saw the last cycle, what are you seeing in terms of pricing? And are people -- you obviously raised prices during the upturn. Are people asking you to give that back? And is that a different conversation on kind of a like-for-like basis versus approaching kind of new design win activity?

偉大的。我想知道，我的意思是，現在你正處於收入低迷之中，看起來比上一個週期更嚴重，你在定價方面看到了什麼？人們在經濟復甦期間顯然提高了價格。人們要求你歸還它嗎？這是一種基於同類基礎的對話與接近某種新設計獲勝活動的不同對話嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. So look, I think overall, the pricing of our existing portfolio is very, very resilient, very stable. And I think something to note as well is that every new generation of product that we build is capturing more value. And -- so if you look at the legacy, it's very stable. You look at the legacy franchise. We've got tremendous stability.

是的。謝謝，喬。因此，我認為整體而言，我們現有投資組合的定價非常非常有彈性，而且非常穩定。我認為還值得注意的是，我們打造的每一代新一代產品都在捕捉更多價值。而且——所以如果你看看遺產，你會發現它非常穩定。你看看傳統的特許經營權。我們擁有極大的穩定性。

We're capturing more new value per new socket. And I don't see any particular change. And we, as a company, play at the high end of the performance curve, which enables us to get this innovation premium that is a very, very critical part of our gross margin structure and our revenue growth.

我們正在為每個新插槽獲取更多新價值。我沒有看到任何特別的變化。作為一家公司，我們處於業績曲線的高端，這使我們能夠獲得創新溢價，這是我們毛利率結構和收入成長的非常非常關鍵的部分。

And our job is to continue to invest to make sure that we stay on the cutting edge and get well rewarded for that. We fight very, very intensely at the inception of new designs. But as I said in the prepared remarks, Joe, we're seeing generally speaking, our pipeline of new product design wins as well as the more established products continue to grow quarter-by-quarter, year-over-year.

我們的工作是繼續投資，以確保我們保持領先地位並為此獲得豐厚的回報。在新設計之初，我們的鬥爭非常非常激烈。但正如我在準備好的發言中所說，喬，我們看到總體而言，我們的新產品設計獲勝管道以及更成熟的產品繼續逐季度、逐年增長。

So I feel confident that the pricing that we have managed to increase over the last couple of years, 2.5 years that they're about to reflect the increased cost of goods. We'll hold those prices. So overall, we're bullish about where we are and what the pricing environment holds in the future.

因此，我相信我們在過去幾年（2.5 年）中成功提高的定價將反映商品成本的增加。我們將維持這些價格。總的來說，我們對我們的現狀以及未來的定價環境持樂觀態度。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的史黛西·拉斯貢（Stacy Rasgon）。

I had a question on OpEx and gross margins into Q1. So you said OpEx was down slightly even with the extra week. So if I assume it's downstate a little bit, it would imply the normalized like 13-week OpEx would be running around, I don't know, 640 maybe, maybe a little lower. Once we get through into Q2 when the ex week rolls off, is that the right sort of like steady-state OpEx run rate to think about as we go through the year and some -- are there some other drivers?

我對第一季的營運支出和毛利率有疑問。所以你說即使多了一周，營運支出也略有下降。因此，如果我假設它稍微偏低一點，那就意味著正常化的 13 週 OpEx 會到處亂跑，我不知道，也許是 640，也許會低一點。一旦我們進入第二季度，當前一周結束時，這是像穩態營運支出運行率那樣的正確類型，在我們度過這一年的過程中需要考慮嗎？還有其他驅動因素嗎？

And I guess if those numbers are right, it sort of implies gross margins implied in Q1 maybe a little below 70, maybe 69, is that the right kind of level that you're thinking about as the revenue is going to drop here.

我想如果這些數字是正確的，這在某種程度上意味著第一季的毛利率可能略低於 70，也許是 69，這是您考慮的正確水平，因為這裡的收入將會下降。

Yes, Stacy, it's Jim. Let me take the margin one first, and then I'll talk about the OpEx for the quarter. There's many inputs. There's many levers to the gross margin. There's revenue that's priced, there's mix as factory loading utilization levels. And let me just try to unpack that a bit.

是的，史黛西，是吉姆。讓我先談談利潤，然後我會談談本季的營運支出。有很多輸入。毛利率有很多槓桿。有定價的收入，也有工廠裝載利用率水準的混合。讓我試著稍微解開一下。

Vince mentioned on the pricing side, basically, that's stable. So that's not a drag to gross margins as we move forward. On the revenue side, basically, we're down -- the midpoint of our first quarter guide on a 13-week basis is down, approaching 30% from our previous peak. So basically, revenue is a headwind for us there. Mix basically is unfavorable as well. As you heard in my prepared remarks, Industrial was down 19% and 20% last quarter on a year-over-year and sequential basis, and that will be down again in first quarter. So mix is a headwind for us.

文斯提到定價方面，基本上是穩定的。因此，隨著我們的前進，這並不會拖累毛利率。在收入方面，基本上，我們有所下降——我們第一季 13 週指南的中點下降了，較之前的峰值下降了近 30%。所以基本上，收入對我們來說就是一個阻力。混合基本上也是不利的。正如您在我準備好的發言中所聽到的那樣，上季度工​​業行業同比和環比分別下降了 19% 和 20%，第一季將再次下降。所以混合對我們來說是一個阻力。

When you put all those puts and takes together, we'd expect basically gross margin will fall below 70% in the first half of the year at these trough levels. I think if you think about something in the 68% to 69% range, is probably a good range for this trough revenue range. So that's kind of the gross margin.

當你把所有這些看跌期權和看跌期權放在一起時，我們預計今年上半年的毛利率基本上將降至 70% 以下，處於這些低谷水平。我認為，如果您考慮 68% 至 69% 範圍內的某個內容，對於這個低谷收入範圍來說，這可能是一個不錯的範圍。這就是毛利率。

On the OpEx side, as I mentioned, our 4Q OpEx basically was down about $60 million on a sequential basis. This was the combination of reducing discretionary spend and, of course, a much lower variable comp. Looking into 1Q, we expect that to be down again even with the extra week. And it's fair to say that probably you can think about 1% to 2% there. This reduction relates to the actions that we structurally took to reduce OpEx as well as a lower typical seasonal spend in 1Q as well.

在營運支出方面，正如我所提到的，我們的第四季營運支出基本上較上季下降了約 6000 萬美元。這是減少可自由支配支出，當然還有更低的可變薪酬的組合。展望第一季度，我們預計即使再多一周，這一數字也會再次下降。公平地說，你可能可以考慮 1% 到 2%。這一減少與我們在結構上採取的減少營運支出的行動以及第一季較低的典型季節性支出有關。

We don't guide 2Q, but just to give you a sense there, when you look at 2Q, it's probably best to compare that to the 4Q, which was a like 13- to 13-week comparison. And when you're looking at 4Q '23 versus 2Q '24, given some of the structural modest reductions we had made, we'd expect OpEx in 2Q to be down a few percent from the 4Q operating levels. So I hope that helps.

我們不指導第二季度，但只是為了讓您有一個感覺，當您查看第二季度時，最好將其與第四季度進行比較，這就像 13 到 13 週的比較。當你比較 23 年第 4 季與 24 年第 2 季的情況時，考慮到我們進行了一些結構性適度削減，我們預計第 2 季的營運支出將比第 4 季的營運水準下降幾個百分點。所以我希望這會有所幫助。

Thanks, Stacy. I always appreciate your 2-part one-part question. With that, next question, please.

謝謝，史黛西。我一直很欣賞你的兩部分一部分的問題。那麼，請提出下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Chris Danely with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的克里斯丹利 (Chris Danely)。

Just a question on Industrial. Historically, this has been a pretty strong sector for you guys, but it seems like it's -- the revenue decline in Industrial is worse than the overall company. Can you just talk about why that is and maybe broader speaking, are the bookings or the revenue falling more because the macro is worse than expected? Or the inventory situation out there is just worse than you guys thought? Do you think you'll be able to hold that 70% gross margin floor for the fiscal '24?

只是一個關於工業的問題。從歷史上看，這對你們來說一直是一個相當強大的部門，但看起來工業部門的收入下降比整個公司更嚴重。您能談談為什麼會出現這種情況嗎？也許更廣泛地說，預訂量或收入下降更多是因為宏觀經濟狀況比預期更糟嗎？還是庫存狀況比你們想像的更糟？您認為您能夠在 24 財年維持 70% 的毛利率下限嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. So yes, look, we've come off a record year for ADI and for the industrial sector. But I'd say in the second half of '23, we began to see momentum slow on the order side of things. And in the fourth quarter, it's true to say that weakness in the industrial sector broadened and hit all the various market segments with 1 exception, the aerospace and defense area.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。所以，是的，看，我們已經度過了 ADI 和工業領域創紀錄的一年。但我想說，在 23 年下半年，我們開始看到訂單方面的動能放緩。可以說，第四季度工業部門的疲軟擴大並影響了所有細分市場，但航空航太和國防領域除外。

And I think when we look into 2024, given the weaker macro backdrop, and we expect the inventory digestion to continue through the first half particularly at the broad market customers who are suffering most here. So I think, as Jim said, when we talk about gross margins, the weaker industrial over the first half of the year, that weaker mix, if you like, will impact the gross margins. And for the trough period here, we're thinking kind of 68%, 69% as reasonable assumptions for gross margin in that period of time.

我認為，當我們展望 2024 年時，鑑於宏觀背景疲軟，我們預計庫存消化將持續到上半年，尤其是對遭受最嚴重影響的廣大市場客戶。因此，我認為，正如吉姆所說，當我們談論毛利率時，上半年工業的疲軟，如果你願意的話，這種疲軟的組合將會影響毛利率。對於低谷期，我們認為 68%、69% 是該時期毛利率的合理假設。

So it really is, at this point, it's an adjustment of inventories at our customers and how fast we experience the recovery will determine on the macro. But again, I think it's true to say, during the first half of this year, we do expect to get this overhang of inventory behind us and get back to a more normalized growth pattern in the second half of the year. Jim, do you want to take a comment?

所以，目前確實是我們客戶庫存的調整，我們的復甦速度將決定宏觀經濟。但我再次強調，今年上半年，我們確實希望擺脫庫存積壓，並在下半年恢復到更正常化的成長模式。吉姆，你想發表評論嗎？

Yes, Chris, I think just a couple of points there. Vince talked about at the trough revenue, gross margins in the 68% to 69% range. Gross margins at 70% for the year. I think that was the first part of your question as well. A lot of that will depend upon when the demand comes back in terms of -- so we don't really guide for the year, but that's probably dependent upon revenue coming back to a more normal level.

是的，克里斯，我想只有幾點。文斯談到，在收入低谷時，毛利率在68%到69%的範圍內。全年毛利率為70%。我認為這也是你問題的第一部分。這在很大程度上取決於需求何時恢復——所以我們並沒有真正指導今年的情況，但這可能取決於收入恢復到更正常的水平。

Let me just add a few points, though. We are -- utilization levels basically brought them down in 4Q. We're going to bring them down again in 1Q. You see the inventory reduction of $70 million in 4Q, which was a little bit better than I think we guided last quarter, you're going to expect that inventory to be reduced at a similar level in 1Q and again in 2Q. And what we're also doing now is we're activating a hybrid manufacturing strategy.

不過，讓我補充幾點。我們的利用率水準基本上在第四季度下降了。我們將在第一季再次擊敗他們。您會看到第四季度的庫存減少了 7000 萬美元，這比我認為我們上季度指導的要好一些，您預計第一季度的庫存會減少類似的水平，第二季度也會再次減少。我們現在正在做的是激活混合製造戰略。

So we're actually swinging wafers from external back in-house, which moderates the factory load, which gives a little bit of a cushion on that gross margin side as well. So just a little bit more color as what you can expect for us in the second quarter here.

因此，我們實際上將晶圓從外部轉移回內部，這減輕了工廠負荷，這也為毛利率方面提供了一點緩衝。因此，正如您對我們在第二季度所期望的那樣，只是多了一點色彩。

Our next question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tore Svanberg 和 Stifel。

Yes. Thank you and congratulations on the results in this tough environment. I had a question about CapEx. So 1 of your competitors talk about this geopolitical dependable capacity that they're investing in. You're going through the complete all the way, you're reducing CapEx a lot for this year. Help us understand a little bit what your partners are doing -- your founder partners are doing for you to sort of feel comfortable that you don't have to spend as much in CapEx going forward?

是的。謝謝並祝賀在這個艱難的環境中所取得的成果。我有一個關於資本支出的問題。因此，您的一位競爭對手談論了他們正在投資的這一地緣政治可靠能力。您正在經歷整個過程，今年您將大幅減少資本支出。幫助我們了解您的合作夥伴正在做什麼——您的創辦人合作夥伴正在為您做一些事情，讓您感到放心，因為您不必在未來的資本支出上花費那麼多？

Thanks, Tore. Why don't we take that in, so I'll answer some color. Yes. So let me just -- let me pause and take a step back on CapEx for a second. So at our Investor Day, we outlined basically elevated CapEx in the high single-digit range for 2022 and 2023. And then long term, that would actually trend back down to mid-single digits. As I said, this past year, CapEx was about $1.2 billion on a gross basis, which is about 10% of sales, which was a bit higher basically due to the revenue fall off that we saw in the second half of the year.

謝謝，托雷。為什麼我們不考慮這一點，所以我會回答一些顏色。是的。因此，讓我暫停一下，稍微談談資本支出。因此，在投資者日，我們概述了 2022 年和 2023 年資本支出基本上會上升到高個位數範圍。然後從長期來看，實際上會回落到中個位數。正如我所說，去年的資本支出總額約為 12 億美元，約佔銷售額的 10%，這主要是由於我們下半年看到的收入下降所致。

This year, as I said, we're basically slowing our capacity expansion and our CapEx, given kind of the short-term demand that we're actually seeing there. So from a CapEx viewpoint, we're going to expect that to drop by about $500 million in our FY '24. And as I noted, this figure doesn't reflect any of the benefit from either the U.S. or European Chips Act.

正如我所說，今年，考慮到我們實際看到的短期需求，我們基本上放緩了產能擴張和資本支出。因此，從資本支出的角度來看，我們預計 24 財年將下降約 5 億美元。正如我所指出的，這個數字並沒有反映出美國或歐洲晶片法案的任何好處。

From a capacity viewpoint, what does that mean? That basically means that we'll be able to still double our internal capacity footprint by 2025. Originally, we were thinking that was going to take place more in the 2024 time period. But given the macro and the demand outlook, we're comfortable with that. So we don't need basically all that capacity in the short term.

從容量的角度來看，這意味著什麼？這基本上意味著到 2025 年我們仍能夠將內部產能足跡增加一倍。最初，我們認為這將在 2024 年期間發生更多。但考慮到宏觀和需求前景，我們對此感到滿意。因此，短期內我們基本上不需要所有的產能。

From a customer viewpoint, from a swing capacity viewpoint, our goal is to be able to basically swing 70% of our product portfolio from internal to external fabs. That's good for our customers because it gives our customers the ability to dual source, and that really creates a rich and resilient supply chain with multiple options for our customers. And then from a gross margin viewpoint, internally, that allows us to moderate the factories a bit with this additional swing coming in-house as well. So we're comfortable with that strategy? I don't know if Vince?

從客戶的角度來看，從產能轉移的角度來看，我們的目標是能夠基本上將 70% 的產品組合從內部晶圓廠轉移到外部晶圓廠。這對我們的客戶有好處，因為它使我們的客戶能夠獲得雙重來源，這真正創造了一個豐富且有彈性的供應鏈，為我們的客戶提供了多種選擇。然後從內部毛利率的角度來看，這使我們能夠稍微調整工廠的規模，同時內部也進行額外的調整。那我們對這個策略感到滿意嗎？不知道文斯有沒有？

Yes. Good morning, Tore, let me add a couple of pieces of color to what Jim has just said. So most of ADI's revenue today is built on process technologies that are 118 nanometers and above. Now in digital technology terms, that's a very, very old process technology. That's more than 25 years old in terms of its currency.

是的。早安，托雷，讓我為吉姆剛才所說的話添加一些色彩。因此，ADI 如今大部分的收入都建立在 118 奈米及以上的製程技術之上。從數位技術的角度來看，這是一種非常非常古老的工藝技術。就其貨幣而言，其歷史已超過 25 年。

But in the Analog space, that is still a very contemporary process node. So a little more than 70% of our revenue today is produced on process technologies at 118-nanometers and above. And as Jim said, we've gone through a major internal expansion to give us more flexibility and agility in terms of where and how we manufacture those process technologies.

但在模擬領域，這仍然是一個非常現代的工藝節點。因此，我們今天 70% 多一點的收入是透過 118 奈米及以上的製程技術產生的。正如吉姆所說，我們已經進行了重大的內部擴張，以便在製造這些工藝技術的地點和方式方面賦予我們更大的靈活性和敏捷性。

And we're making all these investments that we've made on the internal fabs are 200-millimeter wafers. So the tool chains are less expensive, and we're able to get tremendous return on investment over many, many decades on the investments that we're making. So I think below that, for the, let's say, at the final line geometry nodes, we have very, very good alternatives with our external partners who are in a very, very really important piece of how we make the hybrid manufacturing model work. So anything that is kind of 19-nanometers and below, it's 300-millimeter wafers, and we secure that production with multiple sources across the globe.

我們在內部晶圓廠上進行的所有投資都是 200 毫米晶圓。因此，工具鏈的成本較低，而且我們能夠在數十年的投資中獲得巨大的投資回報。因此，我認為，對於最終的生產線幾何節點，我們與外部合作夥伴有非常非常好的替代方案，他們對於我們如何使混合製造模型發揮作用非常非常重要。因此，任何 19 奈米及以下的晶圓都是 3​​00 毫米晶圓，我們透過全球多個來源來確保生產。

Our last question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提摩西·阿庫裡。

I had a question on Inventory. It sounds like you're planning to bring it down quite a bit from here. And you mentioned that the target is 120 days, but of course, it depends on what the base of revenue is. So can you quantify how much more you plan to take out of your inventory? It seems like it could come down maybe a couple of hundred million dollars more from here? And then also maybe if you can also quantify -- and this is kind of a hard question to answer, but how much is selling below sell-through? I know you get some metrics, particularly inside of distribution?

我有一個關於庫存的問題。聽起來你打算把它從這裡降低很多。你提到目標是120天，但這當然取決於收入的基礎是什麼。那麼您能量化一下您打算從庫存中再取出多少嗎？看起來這裡可能會再減少幾億美元？然後也許你也可以量化──這是一個很難回答的問題，但是銷售量低於銷售量是多少？我知道您有一些指標，特別是在分銷方面？

Timothy, let me take that. Just to be clear, let me kind of step that back what I said. So basically, inventory in fourth quarter was down $70 million, and that was on a quarter-on-quarter compare. That was almost all at the finished goods level. In 1Q, we plan to take inventory down by a similar amount. And then we'll do that again in 2Q. That's on a dollar basis, not on a days basis, just to be clear there.

提摩西，讓我接受。為了清楚起見，讓我收回我所說的話。基本上，第四季的庫存減少了 7000 萬美元，而且是環比下降的。這幾乎都是成品水準。在第一季度，我們計劃將庫存減少類似數量。然後我們將在第二季度再次這樣做。需要澄清的是，這是以美元為基礎，而不是以天為基礎。

So over the course of 3 quarters, fourth quarter and the first half of '24, we expect inventory to be down in the $200 million plus range for that. In terms of the channel, as I mentioned, our sell-in to the channel is lower than our sell-through. And in fourth quarter, it was in the $50 million range. And I'd probably expect probably a similar number there in first quarter, yes. And with that, thanks Tim.

因此，在 24 年的三個季度、第四季和上半年，我們預計庫存將下降 2 億美元以上。就通路而言，正如我所提到的，我們對通路的銷售量低於我們的銷售量。第四季度，這一數字達到了 5,000 萬美元。我可能預計第一季會有類似的數字，是的。謝謝蒂姆。

Tim and your question on the days of inventory. I would say our pre-COVID target was 120. We're close to 190 today. I think both of them are going to be wrong when all the dust settles, but we'll re-up you on kind of the long-term inventory days model at a future call. And with that, are we good Tim. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. A copy of the transcript will be available on our website. Thanks for joining the call. I appreciate your interest in ADI, and have a great Thanksgiving.

提姆和你關於庫存天數的問題。我想說，新冠疫情爆發前我們的目標是 120。今天我們已經接近 190。我認為當一切塵埃落定後，他們都將是錯誤的，但我們將在未來的電話會議上為您重新提供長期庫存天數模型。有了這個，我們好嗎蒂姆。謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們的網站上將提供成績單副本。感謝您加入通話。感謝您對 ADI 的興趣，祝您感恩節快樂。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 Analog Devices 電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。