亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web. I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Sir, the floor is yours.

早安，歡迎參加 ADI 公司 2023 財年第四季財報電話會議，該會議將透過電話和網路進行音訊網路直播。現在，我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁 Michael Lucarelli 先生。先生，現在請您發言。

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our fourth quarter fiscal 2023 conference call. With me on the call today are ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche; and ADI's Interim CFO, Jim Mollica. For anyone who missed the release, you can find it relating financial schedules at investor.analog.com.

大家早安。感謝您參加我們 2023 財年第四季的電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ADI 的執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche；以及 ADI 的臨時財務長 Jim Mollica。對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在 investor.analog.com 上找到相關的財務時間表。

On our disclosures, the information we're about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and as further described in our earnings release and other periodic reports and other materials filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking information. These statements reflect our expectations only as the call today. We undertake no obligation to update these statements, except as required by law.

在我們的揭露中，我們即將討論的資訊包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受制於某些風險和不確定性，並在我們的收益報告和其他定期報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他資料中進一步描述。實際結果可能與前瞻性資訊有重大差異。這些聲明僅反映了我們今天的期望。除非法律要求，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

Our references to gross and operating margin, operating and non-op expenses, tax rate, EPS and free cash flow will be on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes special items. When comparing our results to our hysterical performance, special items are also excluded from our prior periods.

我們對毛利率和營業利潤率、營業費用和非營業費用、稅率、每股收益和自由現金流的引用均基於非公認會計準則，不包括特殊項目。當我們的結果與我們的歇斯底里的表現進行比較時，特殊項目也被排除在我們的前期之外。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release.

今天的收益報告中包含了這些非公認會計準則指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標的對帳表，以及有關我們的非公認會計準則指標的其他資訊。

Two comments before we go prepared remarks. We adjusted our mapping to better align revenue to customer end markets. This resulted in slight changes in our end market mix with industrial increasing in each of the other markets slightly lower. These changes are reflected on our web schedule in the quarterly results section for the last 3 years. And second, 1 more quick reminder, the first quarter of 2024 is a 14-week quarter. And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent.

在我們準備好發言之前有兩點評論。我們調整了我們的映射，以便更好地將收入與客戶終端市場結合。這導致我們的終端市場結構發生輕微變化，其他各市場的工業增幅略有下降。這些變化反映在我們過去 3 年的季度業績部分的網絡時間表上。其次，再提醒一下，2024 年第一季是 14 週的季度。現在，我將把發言權交給 ADI 的執行長兼董事長 Vincent。

Thank you very much, Mike, and a very good morning to you all. Though the industry is obviously moving through a more challenging period of the business cycle, I'm very pleased to share that we're preserving the strength of our financial performance while preparing for the market's recovery.

非常感謝，麥克，祝大家早安。儘管該行業顯然正在經歷商業週期中更具挑戰性的時期，但我很高興地告訴大家，我們在為市場復甦做準備的同時，也保持了強勁的財務業績。

Fourth quarter revenue was $2.7 billion, led by double-digit year-over-year growth in our automotive sector. The combination of careful expense management and our employees' commitment to high standards of execution enabled us to deliver operating margins of 44.7% and EPS of $2.01 for the quarter. For the fiscal year, '23 again set new high watermarks with revenue reaching $12.3 billion, supported by all-time highs in the industrial and automotive sectors. This resulted in EPS of $10.09 up 5% from a year ago. Notably, we returned a record $4.6 billion to shareholders in 2023, exceeding our 100% free cash flow return target.

第四季營收為 27 億美元，其中汽車部門營收年增兩位數。精心的費用管理加上員工對高執行標準的承諾，使我們本季的營業利潤率達到 44.7%，每股收益達到 2.01 美元。就財年而言，由於工業和汽車產業的歷史新高，23 財年收入再次創下新高，達到 123 億美元。這使得每股收益達到 10.09 美元，較去年同期成長 5%。值得注意的是，我們在 2023 年向股東返還了創紀錄的 46 億美元，超過了我們 100% 自由現金流回報目標。

Since the closing of Maxim just over 2 years ago, ADI has returned roughly $12 billion to shareholders or nearly 15% of our market cap. Over the same time, we've reduced our share count by more than 6% and increased our dividend per share by 25%.

自兩年多前 Maxim 關閉以來，ADI 已向股東返還了約 120 億美元，占我們市值的近 15%。在同一時期，我們將股票數量減少了 6% 以上，並將每股股息增加了 25%。

Now looking to fiscal '24, the near-term dynamics remain uncertain. As you will recall, last quarter, we outlined a broad-based inventory correction across all markets and geographies, reflecting the deteriorating macro conditions and our improving lead times. Consistent with our view 90 days ago, we expect the customer inventory overhang to persist through the first half of the year.

現在展望24財年，近期的情況仍不確定。您可能還記得，上個季度，我們概述了所有市場和地區的廣泛庫存調整，反映了不斷惡化的宏觀條件和不斷改善的交貨時間。與我們 90 天前的觀點一致，我們預期客戶庫存過剩狀況將持續到今年上半年。

Challenging times like these confirm the wisdom and the strength of our business model. The diversification of our business across customers, applications and products helps to limit volatility while preserving profitability. Building upon that foundation, we took actions to better ensure we can deliver operating margins in the low 40s and solid free cash flow despite the revenue decline.

像這樣的充滿挑戰的時刻證實了我們的商業模式的智慧和力量。我們的業務在客戶、應用和產品方面的多樣化有助於限制波動性並保持獲利能力。在此基礎上，我們採取了更多行動，以確保儘管收入下降，我們仍能實現 40% 以下的營業利潤率和穩健的自由現金流。

Importantly, however, we're not simply battening down the hatches. A resilient financial model enables us to continue making the strategic investments necessary to allow us to capitalize on the upside when the business inflects higher. That longer-term focus and commitment is why our customers have the confidence to increasingly depend on us as a key strategic partner. I've been very heartened by my conversations with customers across many markets and geographies over this past quarter.

但重要的是，我們並不是單純地做好充分準備。有彈性的財務模型使我們能夠繼續進行必要的策略性投資，使我們能夠在業務上升時利用上行空間。正是由於這種長期的關注和承諾，我們的客戶才有信心越來越依賴我們作為重要的策略夥伴。過去一個季度，我與來自多個市場和地區的客戶進行了交流，這令我感到非常振奮。

Despite the near-term challenges, they share our optimism that the intelligent edge is enabling a future replete with opportunity, and they are clear about the expanding role that they expect ADI to play in their success. Our customers' optimism is reflected in the continued expansion of our design win pipeline, which increased by double digits again in 2023. That growth was enhanced by sustained momentum in our Maxim revenue synergies pipeline, which is tracking ahead of our initial expectations.

儘管面臨短期挑戰，但他們與我們一樣樂觀地認為智慧優勢將創造一個充滿機會的未來，並且他們清楚地知道 ADI 將在他們的成功中發揮越來越重要的作用。客戶的樂觀態度體現在我們設計成功管道的持續擴張上，該管道在 2023 年再次實現了兩位數的成長。

We expect synergy-driven revenue acceleration in 2025 putting us on a path to achieve our goal of more than $1 billion in revenue synergy by 2027. The combination of our strong design win growth with recurring revenue streams from our 75,000 product SKUs, which have average life span of a decade or more creates a business with high barriers to entry that's both resilient and rich with growth opportunities.

我們預計，2025 年協同效應將推動收入加速，使我們有望實現到 2027 年實現超過 10 億美元的收入協同效應的目標。

Now let me share some examples of recent wins with you. In Industrial Automation, we're increasingly delivering more complete solutions. At a top digital factory automation supplier, for example, we recently leveraged our anchor position in software configurable I/O to attach additional solutions value across power, isolation and connectivity. As a result, we captured 3x the bill of materials and secured design wins across their entire platform.

現在讓我與你們分享一些最近的勝利的例子。在工業自動化領域，我們正在提供日益完善的解決方案。例如，在一家頂級數位工廠自動化供應商處，我們最近利用我們在軟體可配置 I/O 中的地位，在電源、隔離和連接方面附加了額外的解決方案價值。結果，我們節省了 3 倍的物料清單並確保了整個平台的設計勝利。

In Industrial Instrumentation, we've increased our design wins at SOC and memory test market leaders. Our next-generation solutions, increased channel density and throughput while reducing energy consumption by up to an incredible 30% per system. These are critical parameters for testing complex, high-performance compute GPUs and high-bandwidth memory for artificial intelligence systems.

在工業儀器儀表領域，我們在 SOC 和內存測試市場領導者中贏得了更多的設計勝利。我們的下一代解決方案提高了通道密度和吞吐量，同時將每個系統的能耗降低了驚人的 30%。這些是測試複雜、高效能運算 GPU 和人工智慧系統的高頻寬記憶體的關鍵參數。

Looking now to automotive. In electrification, momentum continues for our wireless battery management system. This novel solution enables lower weight, greater scalability and improved manufacturing productivity, driving down the total cost of ownership for our customers while increasing ADI's content. Last quarter, we secured our fifth customer, a top 10 EV OEM, we'll begin to deploy our wireless solution in their next-gen EVs in 2026.

現在來看汽車業。在電氣化領域，我們的無線電池管理系統持續保持強勁發展勢頭。這種新穎的解決方案可以減輕重量、提高可擴展性和提高製造效率，並降低客戶的整體擁有成本，同時提高 ADI 的內容。上個季度，我們獲得了第五個客戶，一家排名前十大的電動車原始設備製造商，我們將在 2026 年開始在他們的下一代電動車中部署我們的無線解決方案。

Now furthermore, during the year, ADI reinforced our industry-leading position in automotive, high-performance functionally save power. To that end, we won next-generation power for ADAS systems at 4 top suppliers this past year. These wins add another growth vector to our automotive franchise, which has benefited from strong momentum across electrification and in-cabin connectivity.

此外，ADI 公司在這一年中鞏固了我們在汽車、高性能功能和節能領域的行業領先地位。為此，我們去年贏得了四家頂級供應商的下一代 ADAS 系統電源。這些勝利為我們的汽車特許經營增添了另一個成長動力，我們的汽車特許經營受益於電氣化和車內連通性的強勁發展勢頭。

This proliferation of ADAS is benefiting our high-speed GMSL connectivity portfolio. GMSL has been 1 of our fastest-growing areas and a major revenue synergy generator for us. In the last year, we were awarded 4 new wins across leading North American, Asian and European OEMs. We're also expanding our opportunity and increasing our ROI, winning multiple design wins in industrial areas in adjacent areas such as autonomous robotic systems.

ADAS 的普及使我們的高速 GMSL 連線產品組合受益。 GMSL 是我們成長最快的領域之一，也是我們主要的收入綜效來源。去年，我們獲得了北美、亞洲和歐洲領先 OEM 的四項新殊榮。我們也正在擴大我們的機會並提高我們的投資回報率，在相鄰領域的工業領域（例如自主機器人系統）贏得了多個設計勝利。

Our cloud infrastructure business is beginning to benefit from the power challenges and connectivity requirements necessary in AI ML systems. Notably, a large hyperscaler designed our high-performance power and protection solutions into their next-generation AI platform. And in connectivity, systems are upgrading now to [1. terabit] per second and require our highest level of precision control solutions to efficiently support the growth in data generation.

我們的雲端基礎設施業務開始受益於 AI ML 系統所需的電力挑戰和連接要求。值得注意的是，一家大型超大規模企業將我們的高效能電源和保護解決方案設計到他們的下一代 AI 平台中。在連線方面，系統正在升級到 [1.每秒 2000 兆兆位元（TB）的數據，需要我們最高水準的精確控制解決方案來有效支援數據產生的成長。

In consumer, we won multiple power management sockets in a portable application and a key customer. These wins truly show the combinatorial power of our acquisition strategy. We leveraged our industry-leading cell and switcher, Maxim's cost optimized process technology and our customer relationships to secure these wins.

在消費領域，我們贏得了便攜式應用中的多個電源管理插座和一個關鍵客戶。這些勝利真正體現了我們的收購策略的組合力量。我們利用業界領先的單元和轉換器、Maxim 的成本優化製程技術以及我們的客戶關係來確保這些勝利。

And lastly, in Healthcare, Maxim strengthened our comprehensive suite of technology for personal monitoring solutions, adding sensor AFEs, microcontrollers and ultra-low power technologies. We secured a design win at a leading continuous glucose monitoring customer this year. Our solution increases the robustness, accuracy and power efficiency of their glucose center, thereby helping to extend its life from days to weeks.

最後，在醫療保健領域，Maxim 增強了我們針對個人監控解決方案的全面技術套件，增加了感測器 AFE、微控制器和超低功耗技術。今年，我們贏得了一家領先的連續血糖監測客戶的設計勝利。我們的解決方案提高了他們的血糖中心的穩健性、準確性和功率效率，有助於將其壽命從幾天延長到幾週。

So in summary, we're proud of another year of record revenue and earnings. We continue to demonstrate the power of our business model, which delivers results through all phases of the business cycle. Our continued strong investments in technology and business innovation, customer engagement, and our hybrid manufacturing model positions ADI and our customers to take maximum advantage of the opportunities at the intelligent edge when the business recovery arrives.

總而言之，我們為又一年創紀錄的收入和收益感到自豪。我們繼續展示我們商業模式的力量，該模式能夠在商業週期的所有階段中產生成果。我們持續大力投資於技術和業務創新、客戶參與以及混合製造模式，這使得 ADI 和我們的客戶能夠在業務復甦時最大限度地利用智慧邊緣的機會。

Now I'd like to pass the call over to Jim. Over the past 35 years, Jim has taken on a number of critical financial leadership roles across ADI, enabling him to develop a breadth and depth of understanding of our business that very, very few possess. So I'm pleased now to have him on my leadership team and to be joined by Jim on today's call. Over to you, Jim.

現在我想把電話轉給吉姆。在過去的 35 年裡，Jim 在 ADI 擔任過多個重要的財務領導職務，這使他對我們的業務有了極少有人具備的廣泛而深入的了解。所以我很高興他現在能加入我的領導團隊，並與吉姆一起參加今天的電話會議。交給你了，吉姆。

Thank you for that introduction, Vince, I'm excited to be here today, and let me add my welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. Starting with a brief recap of fiscal 2023 results. Revenue increased 2% to $12.3 billion, marking ADI's third consecutive record year. Gross margin of 72.5% moderated from last year's record results of 73.6%. Operating margin of 48.9% decreased 50 basis points, roughly half the decline of gross margin, reflecting strong operating expense control. All told, EPS increased 5% to a record $10.09.

謝謝你的介紹，文斯，我很高興今天來到這裡，並請允許我歡迎你參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。首先簡單回顧一下 2023 財年業績。營收成長 2% 至 123 億美元，這是 ADI 連續第三年創下紀錄。毛利率為 72.5%，較去年創紀錄的 73.6% 下降。營業利益率為48.9%，下降了50個基點，約為毛利率降幅的一半，反映出強勁的營業費用控制。總體而言，每股收益成長 5%，達到創紀錄的 10.09 美元。

Now moving to fourth quarter results. Revenue of $2.72 billion declined 12% sequentially and 16% year-over-year, finishing above the midpoint of our outlook despite the challenging operating environment. Industrial represented 50% of quarterly revenue, declining 19% sequentially and 20% year-over-year. As expected, we experienced broad-based weakness as inventory adjustments continued across our diverse customer base. For the full year, Industrial increased 6%, achieving its third straight record result with strength across instrumentation, test, energy and aerospace and defense.

現在來看看第四季的業績。營收為 27.2 億美元，季減 12%，年減 16%，儘管經營環境充滿挑戰，但仍高於我們預期的中位數。工業業務佔季度營收的 50%，季減 19%，年減 20%。正如預期的那樣，由於我們多樣化的客戶群的庫存調整持續進行，我們經歷了廣泛的疲軟。全年工業成長 6%，連續第三次創下歷史新高，儀器、測試、能源、航太和國防等領域表現強勁。

Automotive, which represented 27% of quarterly revenue was down slightly sequentially and up 14% year-over-year, marking 12 straight quarters of double-digit growth. For the year, Automotive also achieved its third straight record result, increasing 19%, with strong growth across our functionally safe power, battery management and in cabin connectivity solutions. Collectively, these were up more than 30%.

汽車業務佔季度營收的 27%，環比略有下降，較去年同期成長 14%，連續 12 個季度實現兩位數成長。今年，汽車業務也連續第三次創下歷史新高，成長了 19%，其中功能安全電源、電池管理和車艙連接解決方案均實現了強勁增長。總體而言，這些股票上漲了 30% 以上。

Communications, which represented 13% of quarterly revenue declined 6% sequentially and 32% versus a record fourth quarter 2022. For the year, Communications decreased 13%, with steeper declines in wireless versus wireline. And lastly, Consumer represented 11% of quarterly revenue, down 6% sequentially and 28% year-over-year. Consumer decreased 20% in fiscal 2023, driven by industry-wide weaker demand and ongoing inventory corrections.

通訊業務佔季度收入的 13%，環比下降 6%，較創紀錄的 2022 年第四季下降 32%。最後，消費業務佔季度營收的 11%，季減 6%，年減 28%。由於全行業需求疲軟和持續的庫存調整，2023 財年消費支出下降了 20%。

Now on to the rest of the P&L. Fourth quarter gross margin was 70.2%, down sequentially and year-over-year driven by unfavorable product mix, lower factory utilizations and lower revenue. OpEx in the quarter was $692 million, down $60 million sequentially. These significant savings were driven by disciplined expense management and lower variable compensation. As a result, operating margin came in at the higher end of our outlook of 44.7%.

現在來看看損益表的其餘部分。第四季毛利率為 70.2%，受產品結構不利、工廠利用率下降和收入下降的影響，較上季和年比均下降。本季營運支出為 6.92 億美元，比上一季下降 6,000 萬美元。這些顯著的節省是由嚴格的費用管理和較低的浮動薪酬所推動的。因此，營業利潤率達到了我們預期的 44.7% 的高點。

Non-op expense finished at $65 million and the tax rate for the quarter was 12.5%. All told, EPS was $2.01, slightly above our outlook.

非經營性支出最終為 6,500 萬美元，本季稅率為 12.5%。總體而言，每股收益為 2.01 美元，略高於我們的預期。

Now on to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with approximately $1 billion of cash and cash equivalents and a net leverage ratio of 0.9x. Inventory decreased nearly $70 million sequentially, driven by finished goods. Channel inventory also declined as we actively manage sell-in to be less than sell-through. Given lower revenue, inventory days increased to 188 and channel weeks ticked up slightly, ending within our target range of 7 to 8 weeks.

現在來看資產負債表。截至本季末，我們的現金和現金等價物約為 10 億美元，淨槓桿率為 0.9 倍。由於成品庫存減少，庫存較上月減少近 7,000 萬美元。由於我們積極管理銷售量，使銷售量低於銷售量，通路庫存也有所下降。由於收入較低，庫存天數增加至 188 天，渠道週數略有增加，最終處於我們 7 至 8 週的目標範圍內。

Now moving on to our cash flow items. Operating cash for the quarter and the year was $1.2 billion and $4.8 billion, respectively. CapEx for the quarter was $476 million and for fiscal 2023 was $1.3 billion. These CapEx numbers are gross figures, which do not include the benefits of the investment tax credits or grants related to both the U.S. and European Chips Act. Full year free cash flow was $3.6 billion or 29% of revenue. During the year, we returned 130% of free cash flow via roughly $3 billion in share repurchases and $1.7 billion in dividends.

現在來討論現金流項目。本季和全年的營運現金分別為 12 億美元和 48 億美元。本季的資本支出為 4.76 億美元，2023 財年的資本支出為 13 億美元。這些資本支出數字是總額，不包括與美國和歐洲晶片法案相關的投資稅收抵免或補助的利益。全年自由現金流為 36 億美元，佔營收的 29%。這一年，我們透過約 30 億美元的股票回購和 17 億美元的股息返還了 130% 的自由現金流。

Now moving on to the guidance for the first quarter, which will be on a 14-week basis. First quarter revenue is expected to be $2.5 billion, plus or minus $100 million. Once again, we expect sell-through to be higher than sell-in. At the midpoint, we expect all end markets to be down sequentially. Industrial is expected to be down the most, followed by Consumer and Comms with Automotive faring the best. Operating margin is expected to be 41.5%, plus or minus 70 basis points. Our tax rate is expected to be 11% to 13%, and based on these inputs, adjusted EPS is expected to be $1.70 plus or minus $0.10.

現在來看看第一季的指導，將以 14 週為基礎。預計第一季營收為 25 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。我們再次預期銷售量將高於銷售收入。從中間點來看，我們預期所有終端市場都會連續下跌。預計工業領域降幅最大，其次是消費品和通訊領域，在汽車領域表現最糟糕。預計營業利益率為41.5%，上下浮動70個基點。我們的稅率預計為 11% 至 13%，基於這些輸入，調整後的每股收益預計為 1.70 美元加減 0.10 美元。

I will conclude my remarks with a brief update on the current operating backdrop. As Vince mentioned, we continue to see broad-based weakness across markets and geographies as customers work to reduce inventory and a stressed macro backdrop. Importantly, our lead times are now back to normal levels with 95% of our products shipping within 13 weeks, given our customers high confidence and timely supply. Encouragingly, during the fourth quarter, we've seen cancellations fall and bookings stabilize. This gives us greater confidence that the ongoing inventory correction will taper through the first half of the fiscal year.

最後，我將簡單介紹一下目前的經營背景。正如文斯所提到的，由於客戶努力減少庫存以及宏觀背景緊張，我們繼續看到各個市場和地區的普遍疲軟。重要的是，由於客戶信心高且供貨及時，我們的交貨時間現已恢復正常水平，95% 的產品在 13 週內發貨。令人鼓舞的是，在第四季度，我們看到取消訂單數量下降，預訂量趨於穩定。這使我們更有信心，正在進行的庫存調整將在本財年上半年逐漸減弱。

As we discussed last time, we've taken actions to preserve the integrity of our income statement, our balance sheet and our cash flow statements. Let me provide an update in these areas. We are once again lowering internal utilizations with a goal of significantly reducing inventory in the first half of the year. Our hybrid manufacturing model and ability to swing in external wafers will help us moderate the decline in factory starts. The unique ability positions us to deliver healthy gross margins despite the significant revenue decline from a year ago.

正如我們上次討論的那樣，我們已經採取行動來維護我們的損益表、資產負債表和現金流量表的完整性。讓我提供這些領域的最新情況。我們再次降低內部利用率，目標是在上半年大幅減少庫存。我們的混合製造模式和外部晶圓的轉移能力將有助於我們緩和工廠開工率的下降。儘管收入與一年前相比大幅下降，但這種獨特的能力使我們能夠實現健康的毛利率。

Given the enhancements made to our hybrid manufacturing model over the last 2 years, we now plan to slow the expansion of our internal fabs and back-end facilities. As a result, we expect 2024 CapEx to be between $600 million and $800 million or down about 45% versus 2023. Importantly, this CapEx reduction does not compromise our long-term growth or resiliency efforts that gives customers multiple locations to source ADI supply.

鑑於過去兩年我們對混合製造模式的改進，我們現在計劃減緩內部晶圓廠和後端設施的擴張。因此，我們預計 2024 年的資本支出將在 6 億至 8 億美元之間，較 2023 年下降約 45%。

And lastly, we took additional steps to structurally reduce our OpEx. These actions, combined with lower variable comp and seasonally lower spend in the first quarter will result in a slight decline in OpEx sequentially even with the extra week.

最後，我們採取了額外措施來結構性地降低我們的營運支出。這些舉措，加上第一季較低的浮動薪資和季節性較低的支出，將導致即使多出一週的時間，營運支出仍會較上季略有下降。

So in closing, our ability to generate operating margins in the low 40s, which were our previous highs in the last cycle demonstrates the durability of this franchise and how we've enhanced our operating model over time. And with that, I'll give it back to Mike for Q&A.

因此，最後，我們能夠實現 40% 出頭的營業利潤率，這也是上一周期的最高點，這證明了這項特許經營的持久性，以及我們如何隨著時間的推移增強了我們的營運模式。說完這些，我會把話題交還給 Mike 問答。

Thanks, Jim. Welcome to the call. It's great to have you. Now let's get to the Q&A session. We ask that you limit yourself to 1 question in order to allow for additional participants on the call this morning. If you have a follow up question please requeue. We will take your question if time allows. With that, we will have our first question please.

謝謝，吉姆。歡迎來電。非常高興有你。現在我們進入問答環節。我們要求您將問題限制為 1 個，以便允許更多參與者參加今天早上的通話。如果您有後續問題，請重新排隊。如果時間允許，我們將回答您的問題。這樣，我們就可以提出第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Vince, it looks like order has been restored in the diversified Analog world with -- it looks like a very normal cyclical downturn and with you, what you've built is a structurally more profitable company holding to 40% -- low 40% operating margin line. My question is on a bottoming process. And I know we're not there yet, but can you just remind us or help us understand metrics you're following regarding cancellations, pushouts, backlog, you did talk about cancellations, Jim. And then kind of related to that, is if you look at past cycles, does automotive needs to go down double-digit year-over-year decline as industrial has been there? And how should we think about that?

文斯，看起來，多元化的模擬世界已經恢復了秩序——這看起來像是一個非常正常的周期性衰退，而在你的帶領下，你建立了一個結構上更盈利的公司，保持了 40%——低於 40% 的營業利潤率。我的問題是關於觸底過程的。我知道我們還沒有到達那裡，但您能否提醒我們或幫助我們了解您所關注的有關取消、推遲、積壓的指標，您確實談到了取消，吉姆。與此相關的是，如果你回顧過去的周期，汽車業是否也需要像工業業一樣出現兩位數的年減？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Ambrish, and thank you for the question. So yes, we noted last quarter that we believe the inventory digestion issue would last 2 to 3 quarters. And I'd say, given the new information that we have, our conviction of that has actually grown. We have, through careful analysis and observation, we've seen inventory digestion accelerate at our largest direct customers across the board and across all the various segments that we support. And we're continuing to reduce our channel inventories as well.

Ambrish，謝謝你的提問。是的，我們在上個季度指出，我們認為庫存消化問題將持續 2 到 3 個季度。我想說，鑑於我們掌握的新信息，我們對此的信心實際上已經增強。透過仔細的分析和觀察，我們發現我們最大的直接客戶以及我們支持的各個細分市場的庫存消化速度都在加快。我們也持續減少渠道庫存。

So I think very encouragingly, even with normalized lead times, as we've said, we're shipping that kind of 95% of customer requests within a quarter, which is very, very normal. We saw against that backdrop, a sharp drop in cancellations, and though the book-to-bill was below unity in the fourth quarter. We did see our bookings improve sequentially. So that gives us a lot of confidence as to what's going on.

因此，我認為非常令人鼓舞的是，即使交貨時間正常化，正如我們所說的，我們也可以在一季內滿足 95％ 的客戶要求，這是非常非常正常的。在這樣的背景下，我們看到訂單取消量大幅下降，儘管第四季的訂單出貨比低於1%。我們確實看到我們的預訂量連續提高。這讓我們對正在發生的事情充滿信心。

Regarding Automotive, I'm not sure, by the way. The automotive -- the assumption you're making is that there could be a double-digit drop in Automotive. I'm not sure about that because we know that cars are consuming about 10% more silicon per year. And in fact, we continue to grow in share and ASP in the car. So my own sense is that against what could be a very challenging macro backdrop during 2024, that of all the elements of our portfolio, automotive, we expect will fare best of them all. And we still have pretty strong confidence that we'll grow in 2024.

順便說一句，關於汽車，我不確定。汽車－你的假設是汽車產業可能出現兩位數的下降。我對此並不確定，因為我們知道汽車每年消耗的矽大約增加 10%。事實上，我們在汽車領域的份額和平均售價持續成長。因此，我個人的感覺是，在 2024 年可能非常具有挑戰性的宏觀背景下，我們預計在我們投資組合的所有元素中，汽車將表現最佳。我們仍然非常有信心，我們將在 2024 年實現成長。

Next question please.

請回答下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。

Vince, I'm trying to reconcile the comments that were made about some stabilization in bookings. That sounds like a positive. But I think in the prepared remarks, you also said some headwinds that could persist through the first half of the fiscal year, suggesting that April could be a sub-seasonal quarter.

文斯，我正在嘗試調和有關預訂量穩定的評論。這聽起來是正面的。但我認為，在準備好的發言中，您也提到了一些可能持續到本財年上半年的不利因素，這表明四月可能會成為一個季節性較差的季度。

So I know you're not guiding specifically out to April, but what is the right way to look at the puts and takes as we think about April? Can it be seasonal, whether it not be seasonal? And also this extra week from January, did that really give you that 7.5% push, so we should be taking that out of April. So any way to help us give us a sense for how the April could shape up would be very helpful.

所以我知道您沒有具體指導四月份，但是當我們考慮四月時，如何正確看待收益和損失？能不能有季節性，能不能沒有季節性？另外，一月份的額外一周是否真的為你帶來了 7.5% 的推動力，所以我們應該將其從四月份中扣除。因此，任何能夠幫助我們了解四月情況的方法都會非常有幫助。

Yes. Well, I think it's -- Vivek, thank you for the question. It's 1 quarter at a time here. What I will say contextually is that we expect the inventory overhang to have been depleted by the start of our third quarter, which is in May of next year. So, we still remain pretty confident about that, given the dynamics that I just outlined.

是的。嗯，我認為是－－Vivek，謝謝你的提問。這裡每次是四分之一。我要說的是，我們預計到第三季初，也就是明年五月，庫存過剩將會耗盡。因此，考慮到我剛才概述的動態，我們仍然對此非常有信心。

But the other parts of the cycle that we're really -- I think everybody is seeing pressure from is the macroeconomic climate and particularly the decline of semi business in China. So that's the piece. I mean that is the piece that isn't well understood. But all that said, the macro will be the governor on what happens in the second half of the year. And I think another quarter or so will give us a lot more confidence in terms of what is possible in the second half. But I'll let Jim answer as well give you some particular statistics to underpin our assumptions here.

但我們真正關注的周期的其他部分——我認為每個人都看到了來自宏觀經濟環境的壓力，特別是中國半導體業務的衰退。這就是全部內容。我的意思是這是人們不太理解的部分。但總而言之，宏觀經濟將決定今年下半年的走勢。我認為再過一個季度左右的時間就會讓我們對下半年的情況更有信心。但我會讓吉姆回答，並給你一些特定的統計數據來支持我們的假設。

Thanks, Vince. Yes, let me just speak to -- let me unpack lead times a bit first. As we said, lead times are now kind of back to where they were, 95% of our products are shipping within 13 weeks. And we've seen steady improvement in lead times in both 3Q and 4Q. And I guess from the refreshing side of that is from a customer viewpoint, customers have now adjusted to those shorter lead times. And our order rates basically in the fourth quarter basically stabilized in fact, picked up in 4Q versus 3Q. So that's good news for us as the customers have shopped and their signal into us. As Vince said, our book-to-bill will still be low on there, but it is kind of the first lines there.

謝謝，文斯。是的，讓我先講一下——讓我先解釋一下交貨時間。正如我們所說，交貨時間現在已經回到原來的水平，95％ 的產品在 13 週內發貨。我們看到第三季和第四季的交貨時間都穩定改善。我想，令人耳目一新的是，從客戶的角度來看，客戶現在已經適應了更短的交貨時間。我們的訂單率在第四季基本上穩定下來，實際上與第三季度相比有所回升。這對我們來說是個好消息，因為顧客已經購物並向我們發出了訊號。正如文斯所說，我們的訂單出貨比仍然很低，但它是第一行。

Additionally, cancellations in the fourth quarter were down meaningfully for the first time and probably close to a year. And cancellations on a shorter time fence were also very, very low. So that's good for us.

此外，第四季的取消數量首次出現大幅下降，可能接近一年來的水平。較短時間內的取消率也非常非常低。這對我們有好處。

From a channel perspective, we're being cautious. We continue to basically ship into the channel less than our sell-through, which basically will position us well for when the upswing occurs. And from an end market viewpoint, let me just close on that point. All markets in 1Q will be down on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Yes, that's it. Mike, anything else?

從通路角度來看，我們非常謹慎。我們向通路出貨量基本上仍然低於我們的銷售量，這基本上會讓我們為經濟復甦做好準備。從終端市場的角度來看，我最後想說一下這一點。第一季所有市場季減。是的，就是這樣。麥克，還有什麼嗎？

Yes. And it's very confusing with a 13- to 14-week card, you're right, Vivek. I'll kind of add some commentary around that, how to think about that. Normally, 2Q from 1Q and a 13-week to 13-week basis up about 5%. And given what have been said, inventory overhang and bookings getting better. It still feels like we should probably grow some, but I don't think 5% is likely. Why? There's still an inventory overhang going on.

是的。 13 至 14 週的卡片非常令人困惑，你是對的，Vivek。我會對此添加一些評論，談談如何看待此事。通常情況下，第 2 季較第 1 季以及每 13 週為基礎上漲約 5%。綜上所述，庫存積壓和預訂情況正在改善。我仍然覺得我們可能應該會成長一些，但我認為 5% 的可能性不大。為什麼？庫存過剩問題仍然存在。

So if you think 13-week to 13-week were about flattish, plus or minus, in 1Q to 2Q, that's probably the way to think about it. That means if you include the extra week, it's probably down about 5% plus or minus sequentially. So I hope that helps back a little bit because it is confusing. And with that we go to our next question, please.

因此，如果您認為第 1 季至第 2 季期間 13 週至 13 週的數據大致持平（正負），那麼這可能是可以這樣思考的。這意味著，如果算上額外一周，其銷量可能會比上一季下降約 5% 左右。所以我希望這能有所幫助，因為它確實令人困惑。下面我們進入下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫·摩爾。

Great. I wonder, I mean now that you're in a revenue downturn that looks more severe than we saw the last cycle, what are you seeing in terms of pricing? And are people -- you obviously raised prices during the upturn. Are people asking you to give that back? And is that a different conversation on kind of a like-for-like basis versus approaching kind of new design win activity?

偉大的。我想知道，現在您的收入下滑情況看起來比上一個週期更為嚴重，您在定價方面看到了什麼變化？人們——你們顯然在經濟好轉期間提高了價格。有人要求你歸還它嗎？這是在同類基礎上的對話與接近新的設計獲勝活動的不同之處？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. So look, I think overall, the pricing of our existing portfolio is very, very resilient, very stable. And I think something to note as well is that every new generation of product that we build is capturing more value. And -- so if you look at the legacy, it's very stable. You look at the legacy franchise. We've got tremendous stability.

是的。謝謝，喬。所以，我認為整體而言，我們現有投資組合的定價非常有彈性，而且非常穩定。我認為值得注意的是，我們製造的每一代新產品都在創造更多的價值。所以如果你看一下遺產，它是非常穩定的。您看一下傳統特許經營權。我們已經獲得了極大的穩定性。

We're capturing more new value per new socket. And I don't see any particular change. And we, as a company, play at the high end of the performance curve, which enables us to get this innovation premium that is a very, very critical part of our gross margin structure and our revenue growth.

我們正在從每個新插座中獲取更多新價值。我沒有看到任何特別的變化。作為一家公司，我們處於業績曲線的高端，這使我們能夠獲得創新溢價，這是我們毛利率結構和收入成長非常關鍵的部分。

And our job is to continue to invest to make sure that we stay on the cutting edge and get well rewarded for that. We fight very, very intensely at the inception of new designs. But as I said in the prepared remarks, Joe, we're seeing generally speaking, our pipeline of new product design wins as well as the more established products continue to grow quarter-by-quarter, year-over-year.

我們的工作是持續投資以確保我們始終處於領先地位並獲得豐厚的回報。我們在新設計開始時就進行了非常非常激烈的鬥爭。但正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，喬，我們看到總體而言，我們的新產品設計獲勝管道以及更成熟的產品繼續逐季增長。

So I feel confident that the pricing that we have managed to increase over the last couple of years, 2.5 years that they're about to reflect the increased cost of goods. We'll hold those prices. So overall, we're bullish about where we are and what the pricing environment holds in the future.

因此我相信，過去幾年（兩年半）我們成功提高的價格將反映出商品成本的上漲。我們將維持這些價格。因此整體而言，我們對目前的狀況以及未來的定價環境持樂觀態度。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的 Stacy Rasgon。

I had a question on OpEx and gross margins into Q1. So you said OpEx was down slightly even with the extra week. So if I assume it's downstate a little bit, it would imply the normalized like 13-week OpEx would be running around, I don't know, 640 maybe, maybe a little lower. Once we get through into Q2 when the ex week rolls off, is that the right sort of like steady-state OpEx run rate to think about as we go through the year and some -- are there some other drivers?

我對第一季的營運支出和毛利率有疑問。所以您說即使增加了一周，營運支出仍略有下降。因此，如果我假設它稍微下降一點，那就意味著標準化的 13 週營運支出將會在 640 左右，我不知道，也許，也許更低一點。一旦我們進入第二季度，當除息週結束時，這是否是我們全年考慮的正確的穩定狀態營運支出運行率——還有其他驅動因素嗎？

And I guess if those numbers are right, it sort of implies gross margins implied in Q1 maybe a little below 70, maybe 69, is that the right kind of level that you're thinking about as the revenue is going to drop here.

我想，如果這些數字是正確的，那就意味著第一季的毛利率可能略低於 70%，也許是 69%，這是正確的水平，因為收入在這裡會下降。

Yes, Stacy, it's Jim. Let me take the margin one first, and then I'll talk about the OpEx for the quarter. There's many inputs. There's many levers to the gross margin. There's revenue that's priced, there's mix as factory loading utilization levels. And let me just try to unpack that a bit.

是的，史黛西，我是吉姆。讓我先討論一下利潤，然後再討論本季的營運支出。有很多輸入。有很多因素可以影響毛利率。有定價的收入，也有工廠負載利用率水準的組合。讓我試著稍微解釋一下這個問題。

Vince mentioned on the pricing side, basically, that's stable. So that's not a drag to gross margins as we move forward. On the revenue side, basically, we're down -- the midpoint of our first quarter guide on a 13-week basis is down, approaching 30% from our previous peak. So basically, revenue is a headwind for us there. Mix basically is unfavorable as well. As you heard in my prepared remarks, Industrial was down 19% and 20% last quarter on a year-over-year and sequential basis, and that will be down again in first quarter. So mix is a headwind for us.

文斯提到定價方面，基本上是穩定的。因此，從長遠來看，這不會對毛利率造成拖累。在收入方面，基本上，我們的第一季收入指南的中點以 13 週為基礎下降了，較之前的峰值下降了近 30%。因此從根本上來說，收入對我們來說是一個阻力。混合基本上也是不利的。正如您在我的準備好的發言中所聽到的，上個季度，工業支出同比和環比分別下降了 19％和 20％，並且第一季還將再次下降。因此，混合對我們來說是一個阻力。

When you put all those puts and takes together, we'd expect basically gross margin will fall below 70% in the first half of the year at these trough levels. I think if you think about something in the 68% to 69% range, is probably a good range for this trough revenue range. So that's kind of the gross margin.

如果將所有這些收益和利得放在一起，我們預計，在處於最低水平的情況下，上半年的毛利率將降至 70% 以下。我認為如果你考慮 68% 到 69% 之間的某個值，那麼對於這個低谷收入範圍來說，這可能是一個不錯的範圍。這就是毛利率。

On the OpEx side, as I mentioned, our 4Q OpEx basically was down about $60 million on a sequential basis. This was the combination of reducing discretionary spend and, of course, a much lower variable comp. Looking into 1Q, we expect that to be down again even with the extra week. And it's fair to say that probably you can think about 1% to 2% there. This reduction relates to the actions that we structurally took to reduce OpEx as well as a lower typical seasonal spend in 1Q as well.

在營運支出方面，正如我所提到的，我們的第四季度營運支出基本上比上一季下降了約 6,000 萬美元。這是減少可自由支配支出和降低可變薪酬的組合。展望第一季度，我們預計即使增加了一周，這一數字仍將再次下降。可以公平地說，您可能可以想到那裡的 1% 到 2%。這一減少與我們為降低營運支出而採取的結構性措施以及第一季較低的典型季節性支出有關。

We don't guide 2Q, but just to give you a sense there, when you look at 2Q, it's probably best to compare that to the 4Q, which was a like 13- to 13-week comparison. And when you're looking at 4Q '23 versus 2Q '24, given some of the structural modest reductions we had made, we'd expect OpEx in 2Q to be down a few percent from the 4Q operating levels. So I hope that helps.

我們不為第二季度提供指引，但為了讓你有個大概的了解，當你看第二季度時，最好將其與第四季度進行比較，這就像 13 到 13 週的比較。當您比較 23 年第四季與 24 年第二季時，考慮到我們進行的一些結構性適度削減，我們預計第二季的營運支出將較第四季的營運水準下降幾個百分點。我希望這會有所幫助。

Thanks, Stacy. I always appreciate your 2-part one-part question. With that, next question, please.

謝謝，史黛西。我始終很欣賞您提出的由兩部分組成的一個問題。那麼，請問下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Chris Danely with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Chris Danely。

Just a question on Industrial. Historically, this has been a pretty strong sector for you guys, but it seems like it's -- the revenue decline in Industrial is worse than the overall company. Can you just talk about why that is and maybe broader speaking, are the bookings or the revenue falling more because the macro is worse than expected? Or the inventory situation out there is just worse than you guys thought? Do you think you'll be able to hold that 70% gross margin floor for the fiscal '24?

我只想問一個關於工業的問題。從歷史上看，這對你們來說是一個相當強勁的行業，但看起來——工業部門的收入下降比整體公司更嚴重。您能否談談其中的原因？還是那裡的庫存情況比你們想像的還要糟糕？您認為您能在 24 財年維持 70% 的毛利率底線嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. So yes, look, we've come off a record year for ADI and for the industrial sector. But I'd say in the second half of '23, we began to see momentum slow on the order side of things. And in the fourth quarter, it's true to say that weakness in the industrial sector broadened and hit all the various market segments with 1 exception, the aerospace and defense area.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。是的，你看，我們迎來了 ADI 和工業領域創紀錄的一年。但我想說，在23年下半年，我們開始看到訂單方面的動能放緩。在第四季度，工業領域的疲軟趨勢確實進一步擴大，並影響了各個細分市場，只有航空航太和國防領域除外。

And I think when we look into 2024, given the weaker macro backdrop, and we expect the inventory digestion to continue through the first half particularly at the broad market customers who are suffering most here. So I think, as Jim said, when we talk about gross margins, the weaker industrial over the first half of the year, that weaker mix, if you like, will impact the gross margins. And for the trough period here, we're thinking kind of 68%, 69% as reasonable assumptions for gross margin in that period of time.

我認為，當我們展望 2024 年時，考慮到較弱的宏觀背景，我們預計庫存消化將持續整個上半年，特別是對於受災最嚴重的大盤客戶而言。因此我認為，正如吉姆所說的，當我們談論毛利率時，上半年工業疲軟，如果你願意的話，這種疲軟的組合將影響毛利率。對於低谷期，我們認為 68% 到 69% 是該時期毛利率的合理假設。

So it really is, at this point, it's an adjustment of inventories at our customers and how fast we experience the recovery will determine on the macro. But again, I think it's true to say, during the first half of this year, we do expect to get this overhang of inventory behind us and get back to a more normalized growth pattern in the second half of the year. Jim, do you want to take a comment?

因此，目前而言，這實際上是對客戶庫存的調整，而我們經歷的復甦速度將決定宏觀因素。但我再次認為，今年上半年，我們確實有望擺脫庫存過剩局面，並在下半年恢復更正常的成長模式。 吉姆，你想發表評論嗎？

Yes, Chris, I think just a couple of points there. Vince talked about at the trough revenue, gross margins in the 68% to 69% range. Gross margins at 70% for the year. I think that was the first part of your question as well. A lot of that will depend upon when the demand comes back in terms of -- so we don't really guide for the year, but that's probably dependent upon revenue coming back to a more normal level.

是的，克里斯，我認為這裡只有幾點。文斯談到，在收入最低谷，毛利率在 68% 到 69% 之間。全年毛利率為70%。我認為這也是你問題的第一部分。這在很大程度上取決於需求何時回升——因此我們實際上並沒有對全年做出預測，但這可能取決於收入是否恢復到更正常的水平。

Let me just add a few points, though. We are -- utilization levels basically brought them down in 4Q. We're going to bring them down again in 1Q. You see the inventory reduction of $70 million in 4Q, which was a little bit better than I think we guided last quarter, you're going to expect that inventory to be reduced at a similar level in 1Q and again in 2Q. And what we're also doing now is we're activating a hybrid manufacturing strategy.

不過，我只想補充幾點。我們的利用率在第四季基本上下降了。我們將在第一季再次降低這一數字。您會看到第四季度的庫存減少了 7000 萬美元，這比我們上個季度預期的要好一點，您可以預期第一季和第二季的庫存將減少到類似的水平。我們現在正在做的是啟動混合製造策略。

So we're actually swinging wafers from external back in-house, which moderates the factory load, which gives a little bit of a cushion on that gross margin side as well. So just a little bit more color as what you can expect for us in the second quarter here.

因此，我們實際上是將晶圓從外部轉移到內部，這可以減輕工廠負荷，從而也為毛利率方面提供了一點緩衝。因此，您可以對我們在第二季的預期有更多了解。

Our next question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

Yes. Thank you and congratulations on the results in this tough environment. I had a question about CapEx. So 1 of your competitors talk about this geopolitical dependable capacity that they're investing in. You're going through the complete all the way, you're reducing CapEx a lot for this year. Help us understand a little bit what your partners are doing -- your founder partners are doing for you to sort of feel comfortable that you don't have to spend as much in CapEx going forward?

是的。謝謝你，並祝賀你在艱難的環境下取得的成績。我有一個關於 CapEx 的問題。因此，您的一位競爭對手談論了他們正在投資的地緣政治可靠產能。請幫助我們了解您的合作夥伴在做什麼——您的創始合夥人正在做什麼，讓您感到安心，將來不必在資本支出上投入太多？

Thanks, Tore. Why don't we take that in, so I'll answer some color. Yes. So let me just -- let me pause and take a step back on CapEx for a second. So at our Investor Day, we outlined basically elevated CapEx in the high single-digit range for 2022 and 2023. And then long term, that would actually trend back down to mid-single digits. As I said, this past year, CapEx was about $1.2 billion on a gross basis, which is about 10% of sales, which was a bit higher basically due to the revenue fall off that we saw in the second half of the year.

謝謝，托爾。我們為什麼不接受這一點，這樣我就可以回答一些顏色的問題了。是的。所以，讓我暫停一下，暫時回顧一下資本支出 (CapEx)。因此，在我們的投資者日，我們概述了 2022 年和 2023 年的資本支出基本上將在高個位數範圍內上升。正如我所說，去年，資本支出總額約為 12 億美元，約佔銷售額的 10%，這個數字略高主要是因為我們在下半年看到的收入下降。

This year, as I said, we're basically slowing our capacity expansion and our CapEx, given kind of the short-term demand that we're actually seeing there. So from a CapEx viewpoint, we're going to expect that to drop by about $500 million in our FY '24. And as I noted, this figure doesn't reflect any of the benefit from either the U.S. or European Chips Act.

正如我所說，考慮到我們實際看到的短期需求，今年我們基本上放慢了產能擴張和資本支出的速度。因此，從資本支出的角度來看，我們預計 24 財年的資本支出將下降約 5 億美元。正如我所指出的，這個數字並沒有反映出美國或歐洲晶片法案帶來的任何好處。

From a capacity viewpoint, what does that mean? That basically means that we'll be able to still double our internal capacity footprint by 2025. Originally, we were thinking that was going to take place more in the 2024 time period. But given the macro and the demand outlook, we're comfortable with that. So we don't need basically all that capacity in the short term.

從容量角度來看，這意味著什麼？這基本上意味著到 2025 年我們仍將能夠使我們的內部產能翻倍。但考慮到宏觀和需求前景，我們對此感到滿意。因此短期內我們基本上不需要那麼多產能。

From a customer viewpoint, from a swing capacity viewpoint, our goal is to be able to basically swing 70% of our product portfolio from internal to external fabs. That's good for our customers because it gives our customers the ability to dual source, and that really creates a rich and resilient supply chain with multiple options for our customers. And then from a gross margin viewpoint, internally, that allows us to moderate the factories a bit with this additional swing coming in-house as well. So we're comfortable with that strategy? I don't know if Vince?

從客戶的角度和產能角度來看，我們的目標是能夠將 70% 的產品組合從內部晶圓廠轉移到外部晶圓廠。這對我們的客戶來說是件好事，因為它使我們的客戶能夠進行雙重採購，從而真正為我們的客戶創建了具有多種選擇的豐富、有彈性的供應鏈。然後從毛利率的角度來看，在內部，這使我們能夠透過內部額外的調整來稍微調節工廠。那我們對這個策略感到滿意嗎？我不知道文斯？

Yes. Good morning, Tore, let me add a couple of pieces of color to what Jim has just said. So most of ADI's revenue today is built on process technologies that are 118 nanometers and above. Now in digital technology terms, that's a very, very old process technology. That's more than 25 years old in terms of its currency.

是的。早安，托爾，讓我對吉姆剛才說的話補充幾點。因此，ADI目前的大部分收入都建立在118奈米及以上的製程技術上。從數位技術角度來看，這是一項非常非常古老的工藝技術。從其貨幣角度來看，它已有 25 多年的歷史了。

But in the Analog space, that is still a very contemporary process node. So a little more than 70% of our revenue today is produced on process technologies at 118-nanometers and above. And as Jim said, we've gone through a major internal expansion to give us more flexibility and agility in terms of where and how we manufacture those process technologies.

但在模擬領域，這仍然是一個非常現代的工藝節點。因此，我們目前 70% 多一點的收入是來自 118 奈米及以上的製程技術。正如吉姆所說，我們經歷了大規模的內部擴張，使我們在製造這些工藝技術的地點和方式方面擁有更大的靈活性和敏捷性。

And we're making all these investments that we've made on the internal fabs are 200-millimeter wafers. So the tool chains are less expensive, and we're able to get tremendous return on investment over many, many decades on the investments that we're making. So I think below that, for the, let's say, at the final line geometry nodes, we have very, very good alternatives with our external partners who are in a very, very really important piece of how we make the hybrid manufacturing model work. So anything that is kind of 19-nanometers and below, it's 300-millimeter wafers, and we secure that production with multiple sources across the globe.

我們對內部晶圓廠的所有投資都是 200 毫米晶圓。因此工具鏈成本較低，並且我們能夠在未來幾十年內獲得巨大的投資回報。因此我認為，對於最終的生產線幾何節點，我們與外部合作夥伴有非常非常好的替代方案，他們對我們如何使混合製造模型發揮作用處於非常非常重要的地位。因此，任何 19 奈米及以下的產品都是 300 毫米晶圓，我們透過全球多個來源確保生產。

Our last question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀的提摩西·阿庫裡。

I had a question on Inventory. It sounds like you're planning to bring it down quite a bit from here. And you mentioned that the target is 120 days, but of course, it depends on what the base of revenue is. So can you quantify how much more you plan to take out of your inventory? It seems like it could come down maybe a couple of hundred million dollars more from here? And then also maybe if you can also quantify -- and this is kind of a hard question to answer, but how much is selling below sell-through? I know you get some metrics, particularly inside of distribution?

我對庫存有疑問。聽起來你打算從現在開始把它降低不少。您提到目標是 120 天，但當然，這取決於收入基數是多少。那麼您能否量化您計劃從庫存中取出多少庫存？看起來，現在的降幅可能還會再達到幾億美元？然後也許你也可以量化──這是一個很難回答的問題，但是銷售額低於銷售率的程度是多少？我知道您獲得了一些指標，特別是在分佈內部？

Timothy, let me take that. Just to be clear, let me kind of step that back what I said. So basically, inventory in fourth quarter was down $70 million, and that was on a quarter-on-quarter compare. That was almost all at the finished goods level. In 1Q, we plan to take inventory down by a similar amount. And then we'll do that again in 2Q. That's on a dollar basis, not on a days basis, just to be clear there.

蒂莫西，讓我來接手。為了清楚起見，讓我回顧一下我之前說過的話。因此，基本上，第四季度的庫存下降了 7000 萬美元，這是與上一季相比的情況。這幾乎全部都處於成品水準。我們計劃在第一季減少類似數量的庫存。然後我們將在第二季度再次這樣做。為清楚起見，這是按美元計算，而不是按天計算。

So over the course of 3 quarters, fourth quarter and the first half of '24, we expect inventory to be down in the $200 million plus range for that. In terms of the channel, as I mentioned, our sell-in to the channel is lower than our sell-through. And in fourth quarter, it was in the $50 million range. And I'd probably expect probably a similar number there in first quarter, yes. And with that, thanks Tim.

因此，我們預計在前三個季度、第四季和 24 年上半年，庫存將下降 2 億美元以上。就通路而言，正如我所提到的，我們的通路銷售量低於我們的銷售量。而在第四季度，這一數字則達到了 5,000 萬美元左右。是的，我可能會預期第一季的數字可能會相似。最後，感謝蒂姆。

Tim and your question on the days of inventory. I would say our pre-COVID target was 120. We're close to 190 today. I think both of them are going to be wrong when all the dust settles, but we'll re-up you on kind of the long-term inventory days model at a future call. And with that, are we good Tim. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. A copy of the transcript will be available on our website. Thanks for joining the call. I appreciate your interest in ADI, and have a great Thanksgiving.

提姆，您關於盤存天數的問題。我想說，我們在疫情之前的目標是 120。我認為，當一切塵埃落定時，他們兩人的觀點都是錯誤的，但我們會在以後的電話會議中重新討論長期庫存天數模型。有了這些，我們就可以做好蒂姆了。感謝大家今天早上加入我們。成績單的副本將在我們的網站上提供。感謝您加入通話。感謝您對 ADI 的關注，祝您感恩節快樂。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 ADI 公司電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。