亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web. I'd like to now introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Sir, the floor is yours.

早安，歡迎參加 ADI 公司 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議，該會議將透過電話和網路進行音訊網路直播。現在，我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人、投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁 Michael Lucarelli 先生。先生，現在請您發言。

Thank you, Michelle, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our Third Quarter Fiscal '23 Conference Call. With me on the call today are ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche; and ADI's CFO, Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah. For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and relating financial schedules at investor.analog.com. on to the disclosures. The information we're about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties as further described in our earnings release, and other periodic reports and other materials filed with the SEC.

謝謝你，米歇爾，大家早安。感謝您參加我們的23財年第三季電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ADI 的執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche；以及 ADI 的財務長 Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah。對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在 investor.analog.com 上找到它和相關的財務時間表。關於披露。我們即將討論的資訊包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受制於某些風險和不確定性，如我們的收益報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他定期報告和其他資料中進一步所述。

Actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking information, as these statements reflect our expectations only at the date of this call. We undertake no obligation to update these statements except as required by law. Our comments today will also include non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude special items.

實際結果可能與前瞻性資訊有重大差異，因為這些陳述僅反映我們在本次電話會議之日的預期。除非法律要求，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。我們今天的評論還將包括非公認會計準則財務指標，不包括特殊項目。

We are comparing our results to our historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior periods. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release.

我們正在將我們的結果與歷史表現進行比較，特殊項目也被排除在前期之外。今天的收益報告中包含了這些非公認會計準則指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標的對帳表，以及有關我們的非公認會計準則指標的其他資訊。

And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche. Vince?

現在，我將把發言權交給 ADI 的執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche。文斯？

Thank you, Mike, and a very good morning to you all. ADI executed well in the third quarter and delivered results within our expectations despite the challenging operating environment. Revenue was nearly $3.1 billion, led by growth in our Industrial and Automotive markets once again. Gross margin remained strong, above 72%, operating margin was nearly 48% and EPS was $249 million. This continued profitability reflects our portfolio's resilience as well as the innovation premium that it commands. I want to turn to the current business environment now just for a moment. As we shared last quarter, we believe we're in a period of customer inventory reconciliation following 3 consecutive years of steady growth. Through our customer conversations, it's evident these accelerating inventory adjustments relate to the weakening macro backdrop and ADI's rapidly improving lead times.

謝謝你，麥克，祝大家早安。 ADI 公司第三季表現良好，儘管經營環境充滿挑戰，但業績仍符合我們的預期。營收接近 31 億美元，這再次得益於工業和汽車市場的成長。毛利率維持強勁，超過 72%，營業利潤率接近 48%，每股收益為 2.49 億美元。這種持續的獲利能力反映了我們投資組合的彈性及其所具有的創新溢價。現在我想暫時談談目前的商業環境。正如我們上個季度所分享的，我們相信，在連續三年穩定成長之後，我們正處於客戶庫存協調期。透過與客戶的對話，我們可以明顯看出，這些加速的庫存調整與宏觀背景疲軟以及 ADI 快速改善的交貨時間有關。

Importantly, we believe we shipped below end market consumption in the third quarter and expect to do so again in the fourth. This will help normalize our customers' inventory more quickly and position us to return to growth more quickly in the coming quarters.

重要的是，我們認為第三季的出貨量低於終端市場消費量，預計第四季仍將如此。這將有助於我們更快地使客戶的庫存正常化，並使我們在未來幾季更快地恢復成長。

Stepping back, while near-term dynamics or turbulence, our long-term confidence remains undiminished. Over the last several decades, we have enhanced the resiliency of our global business, defined by our diversified customer and product portfolio and flexible hybrid manufacturing model. This enables us to ensure softer demand periods while sustaining strategic investments to ensure that we capitalize on the upside when the business inflects. It's these characteristics and our alignment to numerous concurrent secular growth trends that give us confidence that ADI will deliver on our long-term model of 7% to 10% revenue CAGR.

退一步來說，儘管近期動態或動盪，但我們的長期信心依然不減。在過去的幾十年裡，我們增強了全球業務的彈性，這由我們多樣化的客戶和產品組合以及靈活的混合製造模式定義。這使我們能夠確保需求較弱的時期，同時維持策略性投資，以確保我們能夠在業務發生變化時利用其優勢。正是這些特點以及我們與眾多同時發生的長期成長趨勢的一致性，使我們相信 ADI 將實現 7% 至 10% 的收入複合年增長率的長期模型。

Now one area underpinning this growth outlook are the applications tied to sustainable use cases, which currently represents about 1/3 of our total revenue. And today, I want to unpack a vital part of this, the evolving electrification ecosystem that is driving growth in our industrial and automotive markets. As the world marches to net 0, we need to eliminate 51 gigatons of global greenhouse gases emitted every year. Fossil fuels are by far the largest contributor accounting for more than 75% of all emissions. And at the same time, global energy consumption is forecasted to increase by 50% by 2050. A major unnecessary energy transition is underway and an upgraded and expanded energy grid is foundational to support a decarbonization pathway.

現在支撐這一成長前景的一個領域是與永續用例相關的應用程序，目前約占我們總收入的1/3。今天，我想揭示其中一個重要的部分，即推動工業和汽車市場成長的不斷發展的電氣化生態系統。隨著世界邁向淨零排放，我們需要消除每年排放的510億噸全球溫室氣體。化石燃料是迄今為止最大的排放源，佔總排放量的 75% 以上。同時，預計到 2050 年全球能源消耗將成長 50%。

Making the shift through renewable energy sources in both commercial and residential infrastructure as well as electric vehicles and global transportation will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These moves also create new challenges in the generation distribution, consumption and smoothing of energy supply. ADI solutions are embedded across all phases of this electrification journey from upgrading the grid infrastructure to forming and managing the vehicle battery.

在商業和住宅基礎設施、電動車和全球運輸中轉向再生能源將減少溫室氣體排放。這些措施也對發電分配、消費和能源供應平滑帶來了新的挑戰。 ADI 解決方案滲透到了電氣化進程的各個階段，從升級電網基礎設施到汽車電池的形成和管理。

The common thread woven through all these applications is the high-performance precision signal processing, control and power management capabilities they require, capabilities in which ADI excels.

所有這些應用的共同點是它們都需要高性能精密訊號處理、控制和電源管理功能，而 ADI 在這些功能方面表現出色。

Now today, I'll bring the story to life at the application level, starting with grid infrastructure. Overall, today's electrical grid is undergoing modernization to meet current and future demands. Historically, traditional energy sources like coal, oil and gas were centralized and distributed in one direction from the grid to the consumer.

今天，我將從電網基礎設施開始，在應用層面詳細講述這個故事。總體而言，當今的電網正在進行現代化改造，以滿足當前和未來的需求。從歷史上看，煤炭、石油和天然氣等傳統能源都是集中的，並從電網單向分配到消費者。

Today, renewable energy sources like wind and solar are more distributed necessitating a dynamic bidirectional flow of energy. To achieve this, the grid must be able to adjust performance across the network in real time, which requires an exponential increase in monitoring and storage capabilities. And for example, our collaboration with the Enel Group provides smart meters and grid digitalization solutions for distribution system operators.

如今，風能和太陽能等再生能源分佈更加廣泛，需要實現動態的雙向能源流動。為了實現這一點，電網必須能夠即時調整整個網路的效能，這需要大幅提高監控和儲存能力。例如，我們與 Enel 集團的合作為配電系統營運商提供智慧電錶和電網數位化解決方案。

Here, ADI's control and sensing technologies are enabling high-performance, precision monitoring and data creation at the heart of the digital substation. And we're leveraging our mixed-signal digital and algorithm technologies to enable greater intelligence at the grid's edge.

在這裡，ADI 的控制和感測技術實現了數位變電站核心的高性能、精確監控和資料創建。我們正在利用混合訊號數位和演算法技術來實現電網邊緣的更高智慧化。

Now moving to energy storage systems, which are critical to mitigate intermittency issues across the network. ADI is a leader with our technologies used in 60% of energy storage systems across residential, commercial and grid scale networks. Leveraging our battery management system technology or BMS. We're increasing capacity and improving energy utilization in energy storage systems, which maximizes the battery's lifetime value. These monitoring and storage challenges extend to the grid's edge as well, including EV charging stations, ADI's energy metrology, isolation and sensing technologies, help enable a broader range of applications in AC and DC charging equipment.

現在轉向能源儲存系統，這對於緩解整個網路的間歇性問題至關重要。 ADI 公司處於領先地位，其技術被 60% 的住宅、商業和電網規模網路的能源儲存系統所採用。利用我們的電池管理系統技術或 BMS。我們正在增加容量並提高能源儲存系統的能源利用率，從而最大限度地提高電池的使用壽命。這些監控和儲存挑戰也延伸到電網邊緣，包括電動車充電站，ADI 的能量計量、隔離和感測技術有助於實現交流和直流充電設備的更廣泛的應用。

In addition to these important applications in our highly diverse industrial segment, our high-performance signal processing platforms and domain expertise are helping to electrify the automotive market. Here, our technology is a key enabler in the transition from combustion engines to cleaner electric vehicles by increasing range and lowering cost. And I'll start with BMS.

除了我們高度多樣化的工業領域中的這些重要應用之外，我們的高性能訊號處理平台和領域專業知識也在幫助推動汽車市場的電氣化。在這裡，我們的技術透過增加行駛里程和降低成本，成為從內燃機轉向更清潔的電動車的關鍵推動因素。我將從 BMS 開始。

As we've shared before, we are the leader in this area with our BMS solution designed into 16 of the top 20 EV manufacturers. We're currently sampling our eighth generation solution, which utilizes software and algorithms to enable physical measurement capabilities all the way into the battery cell. These advances in edge processing change the game in how the internal battery health is managed, supporting faster charging and better range prediction. An extension of this is our wireless BMS solution, a first in the industry. It has all the benefits of our wired solution and enables a scalable battery architecture, with quicker and more cost-effective production cycles.

正如我們之前分享過的，我們是該領域的領導者，我們的 BMS 解決方案被應用於前 20 家電動車製造商中的 16 家。我們目前正在對第八代解決方案進行抽樣，該解決方案利用軟體和演算法實現對電池單元的物理測量功能。邊緣處理的這些進步改變了內部電池健康狀況的管理方式，支援更快的充電和更好的續航里程預測。我們的無線 BMS 解決方案是此項技術的延伸，這是業界首創。它具有我們有線解決方案的所有優點，並支援可擴展的電池架構，生產週期更快、更具成本效益。

Currently, our wireless BMS is designed in at 4 OEMs, and we expect another large OEM to adopt it in the coming quarters. Given this momentum and the cutting-edge value proposition, we believe the wireless platform will represent a large portion of our BMS revenue by the end of the decade. And looking ahead, we're broadening our EV capabilities beyond battery management and storage to power conversion solutions. Specifically, we're developing a silicon carbide-based smart switch for bidirectional onboard charging that significantly reduces charger size and weight by over 50%, thus driving down cost. Notably, this intelligent integrated switch enables the EV to transfer energy back into the network, creating a more reliable grid. And this innovation solution more than doubles our content opportunity per EV powertrain.

目前，我們的無線 BMS 已為 4 家 OEM 所設計，我們預計另一家大型 OEM 將在未來幾季內採用它。鑑於這一勢頭和尖端的價值主張，我們相信到本世紀末無線平台將佔據我們 BMS 收入的很大一部分。展望未來，我們將拓展電動車功能，從電池管理和儲存擴展到電源轉換解決方案。具體來說，我們正在開發一種基於碳化矽的智慧開關，用於雙向車載充電，可顯著減少充電器的尺寸和重量超過 50%，從而降低成本。值得注意的是，這種智慧整合開關使電動車能夠將能量傳回網絡，從而創建更可靠的電網。這項創新解決方案使我們每個電動車動力系統的內容機會增加了一倍以上。

So in summary, ADI is driven by a deep sense of purpose and a desire for our innovations to positively impact all stakeholders. We're immensely proud of the role our technologies play to improve the well-being of humanity and indeed the planet, and I remain very confident in our future. Our portfolio of cutting-edge technologies, world-class talent base are aligned with an unprecedented number of attractive secular trends, where the semiconductor content per dollar of CapEx is increasing tremendously. This presents ADI with continued profitable growth opportunities as well as the ability to shape the future of industries.

總而言之，ADI 的動力源自於強烈的使命感和希望我們的創新能對所有利害關係人產生正面影響的願望。我們對我們的技術在改善人類和地球福祉方面發揮的作用感到無比自豪，我對我們的未來仍然充滿信心。我們的尖端技術和世界一流的人才基礎組合與前所未有的具有吸引力的長期趨勢相一致，其中每美元資本支出的半導體含量正在大幅增加。這為 ADI 提供了持續的獲利成長機會以及塑造產業未來的能力。

And so with that, I'll hand it over to Prashanth.

因此，我將把它交給 Prashanth。

Thank you, Vince. Let me add my welcome to our third quarter earnings call. My comments today, with the exception of revenue will be on an adjusted basis, which excludes special items outlined in today's press release. While demand continued to soften throughout the quarter, ADI delivered nearly $3.1 billion revenue, in line with our guidance. This was driven by continued year-over-year growth for both Industrial and Automotive.

謝謝你，文斯。我要對大家參加我們的第三季財報電話會議表示歡迎。我今天的評論，除了收入之外，都是以調整後的基礎為基礎的，不包括今天的新聞稿中概述的特殊項目。儘管整個季度需求持續疲軟，但 ADI 仍實現了近 31 億美元的收入，符合我們的預期。這是由工業和汽車行業持續的同比增長所推動的。

Looking at our performance by end market. Industrial, which represented 53% of revenue, finished down 7% sequentially after a tremendous stretch of 13 straight quarters of sequential growth. On a year-over-year basis, revenue increased 4% with most applications up, led by sustainable energy as well as aerospace and defense, which each grew double digits. Automotive, which represented 24% of revenue, was down modestly sequentially in line with our expectations. Year-over-year growth of 15% was broad-based. We saw continued outsized growth for ADI's leading battery management and in-cabin connectivity solutions, which collectively increased nearly 30% year-over-year. Communications, which represented 12% of revenue, decreased double digits, both sequentially and year-over-year due to the broad-based inventory correction we flagged previously.

從終端市場來看我們的表現。工業收入佔總收入的 53%，在連續 13 個季度實現大幅增長後，環比下降 7%。與去年同期相比，營收成長了 4%，大多數應用都有所成長，其中永續能源以及航空航太和國防領域均實現了兩位數的成長。汽車業務佔總收入的 24%，環比略有下降，符合我們的預期。年成長 15%，這是普遍現象。我們看到 ADI 領先的電池管理和車艙連接解決方案繼續實現超快增長，整體同比增長近 30%。通訊業務佔總收入的 12%，由於我們先前提到的廣泛庫存調整，其收入比上一季和去年同期均下降了兩位數。

And lastly, consumer, which represented 10% of revenue came in stronger than expected, finishing up 15% sequentially, but down 21% year-over-year. We remain optimistic that our second quarter marked the bottom for this business despite the ongoing inventory correction.

最後，佔總收入 10% 的消費者業務表現強於預期，較上季成長 15%，但年減 21%。儘管庫存調整仍在繼續，但我們仍然樂觀地認為，第二季已標誌著該業務的底部。

And now on to the rest of the P&L. Gross margin of 72.2% remains industry-leading, but declined sequentially due to lower utilization and product mix. Operating expenses of $752 million were roughly flat year-over-year and up sequentially. This quarter's OpEx reflects the full impact of annual merit increases. Operating margin of 47.8% contracted 230 basis points year-over-year, roughly in line with the gross margin decline. Non-op expenses were $57 million, and our tax rate was 11.2%. All told, EPS came in at $2.49 within our guidance range.

現在來看看損益表的其餘部分。 72.2%的毛利率仍保持業界領先，但由於利用率下降和產品組合下降而較上季下降。營業費用為 7.52 億美元，與去年同期大致持平，比上一季成長。本季的營運支出反映了年度績效加薪的全部影響。營業利益率為47.8%，年減230個基點，與毛利率的降幅大致一致。非營業費用為 5700 萬美元，我們的稅率為 11.2%。總而言之，每股收益達到 2.49 美元，在我們的指導範圍內。

Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with over $1.1 billion of cash and a net leverage ratio of 0.8. Given the revenue pressures and our decision to hold more finished goods versus restocking the channel, inventory dollars increased and the days of inventory moved higher to 179. As a result, channel inventory remains below our target level and slightly declined. Specifically, we strategically undershipped Asia, especially China, due to weaker demand trends. CapEx was $325 million for the quarter as we invest to enhance ADI's global resiliency and offer our customers options on where their products are sourced. 2023 should represent the high watermark for CapEx, and we expect it to decline in 2024.

轉到資產負債表。截至本季末，我們的現金餘額超過 11 億美元，淨槓桿為 0.8。鑑於收入壓力以及我們決定持有更多成品而不是補充渠道庫存，庫存金額增加，庫存天數上升至 179 天。具體而言，由於需求趨勢較弱，我們在策略上減少了對亞洲，特別是中國的出貨量。本季的資本支出為 3.25 億美元，我們進行投資以增強 ADI 的全球彈性並為客戶提供產品來源選擇。 2023 年應該代表資本支出的最高水準，我們預計它將在 2024 年下降。

Importantly, our investments do not include the benefits of tax credit and grant funds that we anticipate from both the U.S. and the European Chips Act. Over the trailing 12 months, we've generated $3.7 billion of free cash flow or 29% of revenue. And over the same period, we've returned nearly $5 billion to shareholders or over 130% of free cash flow via more than $3.3 billion in buybacks and more than $1.6 billion in dividends.

重要的是，我們的投資不包括我們預期從美國和歐洲晶片法案中獲得的稅收抵免和補助資金的優惠。在過去的 12 個月中，我們產生了 37 億美元的自由現金流，佔營收的 29%。在同一時期，我們透過超過 33 億美元的回購和超過 16 億美元的股息向股東返還了近 50 億美元，或超過 130% 的自由現金流。

Now turning to the Q4 guidance. We expect the fourth quarter revenue to be $2.7 billion, plus or minus $100 million. This outlook assumes sell-in to be below sell-through. At the midpoint of our outlook, we expect all markets to be down sequentially given the broad-based inventory correction. On a relative basis, Auto and Consumer should perform a bit better than Industrial and Comms.

現在談談第四季指引。我們預計第四季營收為 27 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。這觀點假設銷售量低於銷售量。在我們的展望中期，由於廣泛的庫存調整，我們預計所有市場都將連續下跌。相對而言，汽車和消費產業的表現應該比工業和通訊產業好一點。

Operating margin is expected to be 44% plus or minus 70 basis points. This margin outlook embeds planned utilization reductions and a decline in OpEx. Our tax rate is expected to be between 11% and 13%. And based on these inputs, adjusted EPS is expected to be $2 plus or minus $0.10.

預計營業利益率為 44%（正負 70 個基點）。此利潤率前景考慮了計劃中的利用率減少和營運支出的下降。我們的稅率預計在11%至13%之間。基於這些輸入，調整後的每股盈餘預計為 2 美元加減 0.10 美元。

As our outlook is lower than expected, let me provide some context on what we're experiencing and how we will navigate. Our revenue outlook reflects the broad-based macro softness across all end markets, all geographies and customers both large and small. We are also strategically improving lead times to get a better view into demand and enhance customer satisfaction. Today, we're shipping over 85% of our products within 13 weeks, and this is up from 35% a year ago. As Vince mentioned, we are seeing customers accelerate inventory adjustments due to both the softer environment and our lead time improvements. And as such, we're taking measures to preserve the integrity of our balance sheet, cash flow and income statement. This includes further reducing utilization and lowering external wafer purchases with a goal to decrease inventory meaningfully in the coming quarters.

由於我們的前景低於預期，讓我提供一些我們正在經歷的情況以及我們將如何應對的背景資訊。我們的收入前景反映了所有終端市場、所有地區以及大大小小的客戶的廣泛宏觀疲軟。我們也從策略上縮短了交貨時間，以便更好地了解需求並提高客戶滿意度。如今，我們在 13 週內出貨了超過 85% 的產品，這一數字比一年前增加了 35%。正如文斯所提到的，我們看到客戶由於環境疲軟和交貨時間縮短而加快庫存調整。因此，我們正在採取措施維護資產負債表、現金流量和損益表的完整性。這包括進一步降低利用率和減少外部晶圓採購，目標是在未來幾季大幅減少庫存。

And importantly, as we've outlined before, we expect gross margins will maintain a 70% level on a trailing 12-month basis. This gross margin resiliency is a testament to the flexibility of our hybrid manufacturing model and our unique swing capacity capability.

重要的是，正如我們之前所概述的，我們預計毛利率將在過去 12 個月內保持 70% 的水平。這種毛利率彈性證明了我們的混合製造模式的靈活性和我們獨特的波動能力。

In addition to the naturally lower variable comp, we're also taking steps to reduce total OpEx by roughly $50 million sequentially. So stepping back, we're not ready to call the bottom yet but our history shows that we cycle up quickly. And when we do, we will achieve higher highs. ADI has built a very resilient business, rich with opportunities. Our diversification and exposure to numerous secular trends drives our durable earnings stream and solid free cash flow, enabling us to consistently return capital to shareholders. And to that end, over the trailing 12 months, we've returned $5 billion to shareholders or more than 5% of our market cap.

除了自然降低的可變薪酬外，我們還採取措施將總營運支出連續減少約 5,000 萬美元。所以退一步來說，我們還沒有準備好稱之為底部，但我們的歷史表明，我們正在快速上升。當我們這樣做時，我們將會取得更高的成就。 ADI 已建立了極具彈性的業務，並且充滿機會。我們的多元化和對眾多長期趨勢的把握推動了我們持久的獲利流和穩健的自由現金流，使我們能夠持續向股東返還資本。為此，在過去的 12 個月裡，我們向股東返還了 50 億美元，占我們市值的 5% 以上。

As this is my last ADI earnings call, I'd like to give a quick thank you to Vince for his mentorship and counsel over the past 6 years to the ADI Board, including our audit chair, Karen Golz, for their unwavering support and most importantly, to the world-class finance staff, including young Mike here for always reminding us of our commitments to you, the company's owners. I look forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks as we get on the road. Mike, let's go to Q&A.

這是我最後一次參加 ADI 財報電話會議，因此我想快速感謝 Vince 在過去 6 年裡對 ADI 董事會的指導和建議，也感謝我們的審計主席 Karen Golz 的堅定支持，最重要的是，感謝包括年輕的 Mike 在內的世界一流的財務人員，他們總是提醒我們對公司所有者的承諾。我期待著在接下來的幾週內能夠在旅途中見到你們。麥克，我們進入問答環節。

Thanks, Prashanth. I don't think I've been called young in some time, but I appreciate that. Now let's get to our Q&A session. We ask to limit yourself to 1 question in order to allow for additional participants on the call this morning. You have a follow-up question, please requeue and we'll take your question if time allows. With that, can be our first question, please.

謝謝，Prashanth。我想我已經很久沒有被稱讚年輕了，但我很感激這一點。現在我們進入問答環節。我們要求您將問題限制為 1 個，以便允許更多參與者參加今天上午的電話會議。您有後續問題，請重新排隊，如果時間允許，我們會回答您的問題。這就是我們的第一個問題。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

謝謝。 （操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

I have a question for Vince. So I know you're not ready to call a bottom. But some industry observers would say that this sort of inventory build started maybe late 2021, early 2022 based on your guidance for the October quarter, you're sort of back to that level. So then you've seen these cycles, you've seen many of them. They're all different. But just wanted to get a sense for you what you think we're getting close, especially given what I just said about that inventory adjustment now sort of being complete?

我有一個問題想問文斯。所以我知道你還沒準備好觸底。但一些行業觀察人士表示，根據您對 10 月季度的預測，這種庫存累積可能始於 2021 年底或 2022 年初，到那時您就會回到那個水平。現在你已經看到了這些循環，你已經看到了很多這樣的循環。它們都是不同的。但只是想讓您了解一下，您認為我們接近什麼了，特別是考慮到我剛才所說的庫存調整現在已經完成？

Yes. Thanks, Tore. When I look at this current cycle, the symptoms are always the same in these cycles, but the causes tend to have different components. And I think right now, there are 2 kind of inputs to this particular correction. I think one is the inventory in digestion that exists out there that has been building for 18, 24 months now. And the second, of course, is the macroeconomic situation, which is a major governor as well. But I think if you look at what we understand from the direct side of our business, for example, when we look at our largest customers revenue growth and their forecast compared to our growth at these very same customers, we believe that we've been shipping the low-end consumption in the third and will in the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝，托爾。當我觀察當前的週期時，這些週期中的症狀總是相同的，但原因往往有不同的成分。我認為現在，對於這一特定修正有兩種輸入。我認為其中一個是現有的消化庫存，這些庫存已經累積了 18 至 24 個月。第二當然是宏觀經濟情勢，這也是一個重要因素。但我認為，如果你看看我們從業務的直接方面所了解的情況，例如，當我們查看我們最大客戶的收入增長情況及其預測與我們在這些客戶的增長情況相比時，我們相信我們已經在第三季度運送了低端消費，並將在第四季度運送。

So I think one way to look at this is how long will the inventory correction take? My sense is it will be 2 to 3 quarters before we get through the inventory digestion cycle, and I think we're positioned as a company to get beyond it quite fast because we've been managing our factories very carefully, managing our inventories, both on our own balance sheet as well as our distribution channel. So we've also, I think, taken a long-term view to the demand patterns of our customers. We haven't, in any way, forced them into, for example, long-term supply agreements, essentially, at this point in the cycle, that will be forcing them to take products that they don't really need.

所以我認為看待這個問題的一個方法是庫存調整需要多長時間？我的感覺是，我們需要兩到三個季度的時間才能度過庫存消化週期，而且我認為我們公司能夠很快度過這個週期，因為我們一直非常小心地管理我們的工廠，管理我們的庫存，無論是在我們自己的資產負債表上還是在我們的分銷渠道上。因此，我認為，我們也對客戶的需求模式進行了長遠的檢視。我們沒有以任何方式強迫他們簽訂長期供應協議等，本質上，在目前的周期階段，這將迫使他們購買他們實際上不需要的產品。

We've been managing our channel aggressively. So as I said, we're keeping more inventory on our own balance sheet. So again, we will get to distribute the supply ultimately where we think it's needed when the recovery gets underway here. So that's my sense, sorry. I mean, in the industry, if you look back to the dot com cycle, you look at the 2008 financial crisis cycle, most of the downturns tended to last 3 to 4 quarters. So my sense is over the next 2, 3 quarters, we begin to see a recovery here, at least on the inventory side. And then it's really a question of how does the macro-economy perform?

我們一直在積極管理我們的管道。正如我所說的，我們在自己的資產負債表上保留了更多的庫存。因此，當經濟開始復甦時，我們最終會將供應分配到我們認為需要的地方。這就是我的感覺，抱歉。我的意思是，在這個行業，如果你回顧一下網路泡沫週期，看看 2008 年的金融危機週期，大多數經濟衰退往往會持續 3 到 4 個季度。因此我的感覺是，在接下來的 2 到 3 個季度裡，我們將開始看到復甦，至少在庫存方面是如此。那麼這其實是一個宏觀經濟如何表現的問題？

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。

Best wishes again to Prashanth on his next adventure. You said that you're not ready to call the bottom yet and Vince, you mentioned that the inventory digestion period could last for some more time. How should we think about Q1 seasonality? It tends to be down kind of mid-single digit. Do you think we should be prepared for something different than that? right? And if it is worse than kind of mid-single digit, do you still think that ADI can maintain gross margins above 70%. So just kind of puts and takes to help us align our models would be very useful.

再次祝福 Prashanth 在下一次冒險中一切順利。您說您還沒有準備好宣布觸底，而文斯，您提到庫存消化期可能還會持續一段時間。我們該如何看待第一季的季節性？它傾向於下降到個位數的中等水平。您認為我們應該為不同的事情做好準備嗎？正確的？如果毛利率低於中位數個位數，您還認為 ADI 能夠維持 70% 以上的毛利率嗎？因此，透過這些投入和產出來幫助我們調整模型是非常有用的。

Why don't I take that, Vivek. So first, quick comments just to make sure everyone has the Q4 guide, correct. So on the channel, as I said in the prepared remarks, we are shipping in below the forecast we have from our channel partners. So we are intentionally bringing channel inventories down to help set us up for some better strength.

我為什麼不接受這個呢，維維克。首先，我要簡短評論一下，確保每個人都擁有 Q4 指南，並且正確無誤。因此，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，在通路上，我們的出貨量低於我們的通路夥伴的預測。因此，我們有意降低渠道庫存，以幫助我們獲得更好的實力。

The -- included in the guide is the backlog coverage has some turns, but less than normal given the higher level of uncertainty. So we would need some more turns and positive book-to-bill, which Vince mentioned is likely to be a quarter or 2 out. And then just from an end market standpoint, we've got all end markets down quarter-over-quarter.

指南中包含的積壓覆蓋範圍有一些變化，但鑑於不確定性程度較高，變化幅度低於正常水平。因此，我們需要更多的周轉率和積極的訂單出貨比，文斯提到這可能要花上一兩個季度的時間。然後從終端市場的角度來看，我們所有終端市場都較上季下降。

So as you know, we don't guide out further than the current quarter, but some color is I think you essentially have it right. There's no reason to think that first quarter would not be down seasonal on a, which would call it, mid-single digit quarter-over-quarter. But that we -- our view is going to be driven by the holidays and the customer decisions to reduce inventory as they go into the year-end.

因此，如您所知，我們不會指導超出當前季度的情況，但我認為您基本上是正確的。沒有理由認為第一季的銷售額不會出現季節性下滑，也就是季減個位數中段。但我們的觀點將受到假期和客戶在年底減少庫存的決定的影響。

So we're not, at this point, seeing a more meaningful step down in Q1 based on what we can know today. And I will just remember to plant and everyone as you start to model out Q1 that every once in a couple of years, we have a 14-week quarter, and that will be Q1 of '24.

因此，根據我們今天所知的情況，我們目前還沒有看到第一季出現更有意義的下滑。當您開始模擬第一季時，我會記得告訴大家，每隔幾年，我們就會有一個 14 週的季度，那就是 24 年第一季。

And then on gross margins, I think we're actually quite proud of our gross margin story here that we've been -- we've messaged a number of times that we would have the ability to maintain a 70% gross margin in a -- on a trailing 12-month basis with a peak to trough decline of 15%. Q4 is down about 17% from the Q2 peak. And while we didn't give you a gross margin number, if you impute it from the OpEx math that I gave you, you'll see that we are able to hold that north of 70%, and we'll continue to work that. For Q1, gross margins, my best sense now would be that we are likely to face a little more challenge on the utilization level as we bring inventory levels down, but we have been very successful in activating our swing capacity.

至於毛利率，我認為我們對我們的毛利率故事感到非常自豪，我們已經多次表示，我們有能力在過去 12 個月內保持 70% 的毛利率，峰谷下降幅度為 15%。第四季較第二季的高峰下降了約 17%。雖然我們沒有為您提供毛利率數字，但如果您根據我給您的營運支出數學公式推算，您會發現我們能夠將其保持在 70% 以上，而且我們會繼續努力。對於第一季的毛利率，我現在最好的感覺是，隨著庫存水準的下降，我們在利用率水準上可能會面臨更多的挑戰，但我們在激活我們的波動能力方面已經非常成功。

We're actually doing about 10% better on utilizations because we have swing than if we hadn't activated it. So it's been a very powerful lever for us. And and we need to see how the math on all of that works out for Q1, but I wouldn't expect Q1 to be notably different from kind of where we are for Q4.

與沒有啟動擺動功能相比，由於使用了擺動功能，我們的利用率實際上提高了 10%。所以這對我們來說是一個非常強大的槓桿。我們需要看看所有這些對第一季的影響如何，但我預計第一季與第四季不會有明顯差異。

Yes. I'd like to add one other comment, Vivek, to what Prashanth has said. So the other side of margin is pricing, and pricing is very stable. It's very, very stable, resilient. I don't expect that to change. And our products are very, very sticky. We've got tremendous life cycles and that part of our business, this is really a unit correction in the business rather than price or share.

是的。 Vivek，我想對 Prashanth 所說的內容補充另一條評論。利潤的另一面就是定價，定價非常穩定。它非常非常穩定、有彈性。我並不認為這種情況會改變。我們的產品黏性非常強。我們擁有巨大的生命週期，而對於我們業務的這一部分來說，這實際上是業務的單位調整，而不是價格或份額。

Our next question comes from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

This is old Ambrish, Young Mike, can feel free to chime in. I was looking at the year-over-year comms, and I look at TI as your closest peer rival competitor. Vince, they started going into a year-over-year decline in 4Q '22 and you are just starting, and you said 2 to 3 quarters. So in the past history does suggest that usually on a year-over-year basis, we see roughly around 4 to 5 quarters of year decline. Is that the right way to think about your business? You said 2 to 3 quarters of digestion and I'm assuming that means year-over-year decline in reps, right?

我是老安布里什 (Ambrish)，年輕的麥克 (Young Mike)，請隨意插話。 我查看了同比通訊，我認為 TI 是您最接近的競爭對手。文斯，他們在 22 年第四季開始出現同比下滑，而你才剛開始，你說的是 2 到 3 個季度。因此，過去的歷史確實表明，通常以同比計算，我們會看到大約 4 到 5 個季度的下降。這是思考您的業務的正確方式嗎？您說的是 2 到 3 個季度的消化，我假設這意味著銷售代表的同比下降，對嗎？

Yes. Good question, Ambrish. So yes, look, I mean, Comms is just a piece of ADI's overall story. We've actually seen -- I mean, we have 2 components as well. We've got wire line, we have wireless. I would say on the wire line side of things, we've seen the malaise going back into the late part of '22, early part of '23. So that's really things like optical control for data center and carrier networks, and power. We've got a power business there as well. So we think we'll see that, we expect to see CapEx somewhat recover in that space to be able to catch up with the needs, for example, driven by the explosion in computing power that's required to handle the AI inflection here, for example. So -- my sense is the wire line part will probably start its recovery in the first -- second quarter of the year.

是的。問得好，安布里什。是的，我的意思是，通信只是 ADI 整體故事的一部分。我們實際上已經看到—我的意思是，我們也有兩個組件。我們有有線線路，也有無線線路。我想說，從有線業務的角度來看，我們看到這種低迷狀態一直延續到 22 年末和 23 年初。所以這實際上是數據中心和運營商網路的光學控制以及電源之類的東西。我們在那裡也有電力業務。因此，我們認為我們會看到，我們預計資本支出在該領域會有所恢復，以便能夠滿足需求，例如，受處理此處人工智慧拐點所需的運算能力爆炸式增長的推動。所以 — — 我的感覺是，有線部分可能會在今年第一季至第二季開始復甦。

Wireless is a little harder to call. It's very, very dynamic. We all know that. The developed countries, particularly North America, 5G deployments, which have really been focused on coverage rather than capacity. They're going to be weaker than we thought. So that's probably going to give us headwinds for how long, we don't know, but I think it could be several quarters during our FY '24. India has been very strong this year, of course. And I think we're expecting to see more commitments to lay in both coverage and capacity in India during our FY '24.

無線網路有點難以呼叫。它非常非常有活力。我們都知道這一點。已開發國家，特別是北美的5G部署，其實注重的是覆蓋範圍而不是容量。他們會比我們想像的還要弱。所以這可能會給我們帶來多長時間的阻力，我們不知道，但我認為可能會是24財年的幾個季度。當然，印度今年表現非常強勁。我認為，我們有望在24財年看到更多在印度覆蓋範圍和容量方面的承諾。

So look, we've got leadership in many of these areas, like optical control systems, 5G, software-defined solutions. It's really a question of timing in my mind. But -- there's a lot of uncertainty in the communications market in totality and particularly in wireless at this point. So hopefully, that gives you the answer to your question.

所以，我們在許多領域都處於領先地位，例如光學控制系統、5G、軟體定義解決方案。在我看來這實際上是一個時間問題。但是，目前整個通訊市場，特別是無線通訊市場，存在著許多不確定性。希望這能解答你的問題。

Well, I was asking about the overall business, Vince, not just about the Comms, sorry.

嗯，文斯，我問的是整體業務，而不僅僅是通訊業務，抱歉。

Okay. yes. Look, I think, Ambrish, the overall business. We see some trends, for example, that will transcend the inventory digestion problem. And even the macro-economy areas like digital healthcare, like aerospace and defense, the sustainable energy theme that we spoke to a little while ago. So again, I will just reiterate my sense is the inventory digestion problem will last probably 2, 3 quarters, and then we'll get back into a unit volume increase from there on.

好的。是的。我認為，安布里什，看一下整體業務。例如，我們看到一些趨勢將超越庫存消化問題。甚至包括數位醫療、航空航太和國防等宏觀經濟領域，以及我們不久前談到的永續能源主題。因此，我再次重申我的觀點，即庫存消化問題可能會持續 2 至 3 個季度，然後我們將重新回到單位產量增加的狀態。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的史黛西‧拉斯岡 (Stacy Rasgon)。

Prashanth, I don't want to be pedantic on Q1, but I know you said right now, down seasonal, but also as an extra week. That extra week, if I just linearize it is like a plus 7. So do those cancel out? Or is it like it's the week between Christmas and New Year, so it's not a lot of revenue? Or just how do I think about the balance of those 2 things into Q1, assuming a Q1 that was...

Prashanth，我不想對 Q1 吹毛求疵，但我知道你現在說的是季節性下降，但也是額外一周。那額外的一周，如果我只是將其線性化，它就像是加 7。還是像聖誕節和新年之間的那一周，收入不會很多？或者我只是如何考慮將這兩件事在 Q1 中保持平衡，假設 Q1 是...

So when I gave you my comments of down seasonal that was on a 13-week basis, the 14-week was just a reminder as you model it. So Mike, do you want to do the math, but I think you're essentially thinking about it right.

因此，當我向您提供以 13 週為基礎的季節性下滑評論時，14 週只是一個提醒，因為您對其進行了建模。那麼麥克，你想做一下計算嗎，但我認為你基本上是在正確地思考。

Yes. So as Prashanth said, let's take a first 13-week quarter. What happens normally in 1Q and a 13-week quarter our business is down, call it, 5%, plus or minus, total business. Now with an extra week, that adds about 7.5%, both on the revenue side and the OpEx side. So there's 2 pieces, normal, down 5% total company, in the 14-week quarter, you can add 7.5% of revenue and OpEx. That's the best way to think about it.

是的。正如 Prashanth 所說，讓我們來看看第一個 13 週的季度。在第一季和為期 13 週的季度中，我們的業務通常會下降，可以說是整體業務下降 ​​5%（正負 5%）。現在又增加了一周，收入和營運支出都增加了約 7.5%。因此有 2 個部分，正常情況下，公司整體下降 5%，在 14 週的季度中，可以增加 7.5% 的收入和營運支出。這是最好的思考方式。

And thank you for clarifying that, Stacy, I wasn't clear in my answer.

謝謝你的澄清，史黛西，我的回答並不清楚。

Okay. And then that would drop off into Q2, though, you go the other way in Q2. So Q2 under like normal circumstances would be worse than seasonal because you have that extra week drop off?

好的。然後，到了 Q2，情況就會發生變化，在 Q2 中，情況會反過來。那麼，在正常情況下，第二季的表現會比季節性表現更差，因為有額外一週的下滑時間？

Yes. So again, you can parse it in normal times, 2Q is up, call it, 2% to 5% and a 13-week to [13-week] quarter, if you take away an extra week, yes, you have a 7.5% headwind. They have got 1Q.

是的。因此，您可以再次在正常情況下進行分析，第二季度上漲，可以稱之為 2% 到 5%，而第 13 週到第 [13 週] 個季度，如果您多去一周，是的，您將面臨 7.5% 的逆風。他們已經得到了1Q。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. I have another one, but I guess I don't want to get that band next time, so I....

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。我還有另一個，但我想下次我不想得到那個樂隊，所以我......

I'll allow another question because that's a good clarifying question, Stacy.

我允許再問一個問題，因為這是一個很好的澄清問題，史黛西。

Okay. I just wanted to ask about OpEx into next year. So it sounds like you're guiding it to about $700 million in the Q4. How do I think about it next year into a revenue year that's likely to be down potentially reasonably materially. Like how should we think about OpEx just year-over-year for fiscal '24 versus '23?

好的。我只是想問一下明年的營運支出狀況。所以聽起來你預計第四季的營收將達到約 7 億美元。我如何看待明年的收入可能會大幅下降的情況？例如，我們該如何看待 24 財年與 23 財年的營運支出較去年同期變動？

Yes. I think, Stacy, as we've always said, we run this business for the long term. So we're going to make the adjustments that are prudent to make on the discretionary side, adjusting the variable comp and where we can, but the value of this company comes from its innovation. So I wouldn't expect meaningfully more attack on the spending into 2024. But remember that our variable comp is designed to be highly accordion. So if '24 plays out as a down year, you will see that meaningfully unwind for us. Anything else...

是的。史黛西，我認為，正如我們一直說的那樣，我們要長期經營這項業務。因此，我們將在可自由支配的方面做出審慎的調整，調整可變薪酬以及我們力所能及的調整，但這家公司的價值來自於它的創新。因此，我預計 2024 年的支出不會出現更大幅度的下降。因此，如果 2024 年是低迷的一年，你會看到這對我們來說意義重大。還要別的嗎...

Is that $700 million runway Mike, is that like the right run rate to think about?

那是 7 億美元的跑道，麥克，這是值得考慮的正確運行率嗎？

That's not a crazy level to think about for the year. I think if you take a step back and look at kind of what we're trying to manage within our control. We talked about gross margin maintaining at 70% a trailing 12-month basis. So for the full year, I think we can do 70% gross margins, and our goal is to maintain our operating margins within our long-term target and the low end of that account 42% to 45%. So that's kind of some guardrails we think about as you're modeling out next year and what would be a down year for revenue.

對於今年來說這並不是一個瘋狂的水平。我認為，如果你退一步來看看我們在控制範圍內試圖管理什麼。我們談到了將過去 12 個月的毛利率維持在 70% 左右。因此，就全年而言，我認為我們的毛利率可以達到 70%，我們的目標是將營業利潤率維持在長期目標範圍內，最低目標是 42% 到 45%。因此，當您模擬明年的收入下滑年份時，我們會考慮一些防護措施。

Our next question comes from Chris Danely with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Chris Danely。

Congrats Prashanth on retirement. I wish I was joining you. I just had a question on the Auto end market. So you're saying that you expect it to do, I guess, better relatively than Industrial. Given how much inventory has been built there, and the upcoming UAW strike, do you think it's possible that Auto could get materially worse? Are you baking that into any kind of forecast? And then are you I guess, Auto supply chain customers talking about a potential strike and the impact on their inventory.

恭喜 Prashanth 退休。我希望能加入你們。我只是想問一下汽車終端市場。所以你是說你期望它的表現比工業表現更好。考慮到那裡已經累積了多少庫存，以及即將到來的 UAW 罷工，您是否認為汽車業的情況可能變得更糟？您是否將其考慮進任何類型的預測中？那麼我猜，汽車供應鏈客戶正在談論潛在的罷工及其對其庫存的影響。

Yes. All right. So thank you for the question. Chris, I think we're going to see you in a couple of weeks in New York. So on Auto, I guess some context first, we've grown for 12 consecutive quarters year-over-year. And including the fourth quarter, we're going to be up again. We said in the prepared comments that the lead times and the confidence supply is driving some of that acceleration in inventory adjustments and that's happening across all our markets. When we look specifically at Auto in the quarter and our growth rates there, the same strong growers, BMS, GMSL, A2B. They grew in the third quarter and both on a sequential basis and year-over-year. We expect kind of the similar strength from them into the fourth quarter.

是的。好的。感謝您的提問。克里斯，我想我們將在幾週後在紐約見到你。關於汽車，我想先介紹一下背景，我們已經連續 12 個季度同比增長。包括第四季在內，我們的業績還會繼續上漲。我們在準備好的評論中說過，交貨時間和信心供應正在推動庫存調整的加速，而這種情況正在我們所有的市場中發生。當我們特別關注本季的汽車業務及其成長率時，我們發現 BMS、GMSL、A2B 等成長強勁。它們在第三季度實現了增長，無論是環比增長還是同比增長。我們預計他們在第四季度將保持類似的強勁勢頭。

So I think that our outlook is, as Vince said, is really end market units driven and we have not yet put in a number nor have we received indicators from our supply chain partners that we should be making adjustments based on any disruption that could come from the negotiations that are going on right now.

因此我認為，正如文斯所說，我們的前景實際上是由終端市場單位驅動的，我們還沒有給出一個數字，也沒有從我們的供應鏈合作夥伴那裡得到指示，表明我們應該根據正在進行的談判可能帶來的任何干擾做出調整。

Yes. I think one other thing, Chris, to note is that, in general, there's more and more silicon value in cars every year, and that's true of ADI. We've got the switch to the electrification, which is, again, in pretty much the early stages of adoption. So there are some great growth drivers that will somewhat transcend the malaise, the economic malaise. But we still expect, overall, as Prashanth said, we've got many growth drivers that Automotive will continue to be the one of the better growth areas for ADI for the foreseeable future.

是的。克里斯，我認為還有一件事要注意，那就是總體而言，汽車中矽的價值每年都在增加，對於 ADI 來說也是如此。我們已經轉向電氣化，這仍然處於採用的早期階段。因此，有一些巨大的成長動力將在某種程度上克服經濟萎靡不振的弊端。但我們仍然預計，總體而言，正如 Prashanth 所說，我們有許多成長動力，汽車將在可預見的未來繼續成為 ADI 更好的成長領域之一。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Sorry about that. So in Q3, disti was down, was about 62% of sales. It was down about 4.5% sequentially. So that's less than the total business. Shipments to our direct customers came down around 8%. So maybe you guys can just discuss the shipments and excess inventory dynamics around both for Q3 and here in Q4. Is the excess inventory situation a little bit more pronounced than direct customers? And maybe similar to your disti customers where you have systems in place to monitor sell-through? Like how do you monitor the levels of sell-through and inventories at your direct customers?

很抱歉。因此在第三季度，分銷量下降，銷售額約佔 62%。環比下降約 4.5%。所以比總業務量少。我們直接客戶的出貨量下降了約 8%。所以也許你們可以討論一下第三季和第四季的出貨量和過剩庫存動態。庫存過剩的情況是否比直接客戶更明顯？也許與您的分銷客戶類似，您有系統來監控銷售情況？例如，您如何監控直接客戶的銷售量和庫存水準？

Yes. Great. Okay. So let's do a couple of pieces on that. First, as a reminder, for a distribution company to do business with ADI, you have to give us your sell-through data on a weekly basis in arrears via electronic data feed. So we know exactly where our distribution guys are doing business, and we use that to run the company, as Vince always said, we run it on a POS basis. We said in the third sorry, in the second quarter earnings call, we said that we had gotten a little ahead of ourselves in China and that we intended to undership China. In the third quarter, we have done that. We are now intending to undership all markets generally in the fourth quarter to continue to bring the channel level inventories down.

是的。偉大的。好的。因此讓我們就此做一些工作。首先，提醒一下，對於與 ADI 開展業務的分銷公司，您必須每週透過電子資料饋送向我們提供您的銷售資料。因此，我們清楚地知道我們的分銷人員在哪裡做生意，並且我們利用這一點來運營公司，正如文斯常說的，我們以 POS 方式運營。我們在第二季的第三次財報電話會議上表示，我們在中國市場有些超前了，我們打算降低中國市場的售價。在第三季度，我們做到了這一點。我們現在打算在第四季普遍減少所有市場的出貨量，以繼續降低通路級庫存。

We have limited direct data visibility into our end customers inventory levels, except for those customers where we have consignment. But what we do have is the which you don't have access to is we can see the sales data of our products into our broad set of (inaudible) external customers and their corresponding revenue growth. And our team builds correlation data based on that to tell us how we're doing versus how their growth is. And that's what Vince was referring to that we have seen that their growth is accelerating versus our growth to them, which is why we have confidence that we are undershipping their end market demand, allowing them to pull inventory levels down, which, of course, it is safe to do so because now we can get our products to them within 13 weeks.

除我們有寄售的客戶​​外，我們對最終客戶庫存水準的直接資料可見度有限。但我們確實擁有您無法訪問的信息，我們可以看到我們的產品在廣泛的（聽不清楚）外部客戶中的銷售數據以及其相應的收入增長。我們的團隊在此基礎上建立關聯數據，告訴我們我們的表現如何以及他們的成長。這就是文斯所指的，我們已經看到他們的增長速度相對於我們的增長速度正在加速，這就是為什麼我們有信心我們的發貨量可以滿足他們的終端市場需求，從而允許他們降低庫存水平，當然，這樣做是安全的，因為現在我們可以在 13 週內將產品送到他們手中。

Yes. Prashanth that's a great point you made the less lead times is the best indicator of what our customers' inventory levels need to be. if a customer can get product quick, they need to hold a little less inventory. So our lead time is improving is helping us give us better visibility into what the customers need to hold and what they're holding.

是的。 Prashanth，你說的很有道理，較短的交貨時間最能表明我們的客戶需要多少庫存水準。如果客戶能夠快速獲得產品，他們就需要少持有一些庫存。因此，我們的交貨時間正在縮短，這有助於我們更好地了解客戶需要持有什麼以及他們持有什麼。

Yes. I think Prashanth said earlier, 85% of our total portfolio now is available in less than 13 weeks. Big, big change since this time last year.

是的。我記得 Prashanth 之前說過，我們現在 85% 的總投資組合可以在不到 13 週的時間內上市。自去年此時以來發生了巨大的變化。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的Toshiya Hari。

I had 2 quick ones, if I may. One on pricing. Vince, you mentioned that in the near term, it's more of a unit correction as opposed to a correction in pricing, which makes sense. To the extent foundry pricing improves into 2024, would you be in a position to share that sort of cost down, if you will, with customers the same way you've sort of passed on higher costs over the past couple of years?

如果可以的話，我有 2 個快速的。一個是關於定價。文斯，你提到，短期內，這更多的是單位調整，而不是價格調整，這是有道理的。如果到 2024 年代工定價有所改善，您是否能夠與客戶分擔這種成本，就像過去幾年轉嫁更高的成本一樣？

And then a second quick one for Prashanth. DOI 179, I think that's up, call it, 50, 60 days vis-a-vis pre-pandemic. How should we think about the new normal going forward? And how quickly can you get there?

然後是 Prashanth 的第二個快速動作。 DOI 179，我認為與大流行前相比，這已經增加了 50 到 60 天。我們該如何思考未來的新常態？你多久能到達那裡？

Sure. Let me answer the pricing piece first, Toshiya. There are really 2 parts to it. One is we have 75,000 product SKUs that are established and are the bedrock of the franchise of the ADI. They're very sticky. The product life cycles tend to be very, very strong. And they tend to be once they're designed and fairly price insensitive. And we're actually -- we're also, by the way, increasing the value of our products each year. We're managing the portfolio in terms of pricing. We're looking for elasticity, which is just a normal part of portfolio management. But -- we're also adding more value to the products that we're introducing to customers, the new products.

當然。讓我先回答定價問題，Toshiya。它實際上由兩個部分組成。一是我們已經擁有 75,000 個產品 SKU，這些產品是 ADI 特許經營的基石。它們非常粘。產品的生命週期往往非常非常長。而且它們往往在設計時就對價格不太敏感。順便說一句，我們實際上每年都在提高我們產品的價值。我們從定價的角度來管理投資組合。我們尋求的是彈性，這只是投資組合管理的正常部分。但是－我們也正在為向客戶推出的產品，也就是新產品增加更多價值。

I think the benefit of lower costs will come at the design-in phase if we do get lower cost, which from our third-party which, by the way, I think, is very, very unlikely. So I think the message is pricing is stable and very, very franchise is very durable.

我認為，如果我們確實從第三方獲得了更低的成本，那麼降低成本的好處將在設計階段顯現出來，順便說一句，我認為這種可能性非常非常小。所以我認為資訊是定價是穩定的，而且特許經營權非常非常持久。

And I'll do the DOI one very quickly here, Toshi. So 179 days, balance sheet inventory grew call it, low single digits sequentially on a dollar basis. We have high confidence that we will exit Q1, taking out at least $100 million of inventory value. and the production plans are being oriented to allow us to do that. The days target, we have a model, but we've agreed that it is appropriate for the next CFO really to bless that model because they're going to own that and they need to kind of go through that map. So I can tell you that it's not going to be at 180 days, but I don't think we get back to 120 days. So we'll come back to you at some point on what that looks like.

我會在這裡快速完成 DOI，Toshi。因此，179 天內，資產負債表庫存以美元計算連續成長了低個位數。我們非常有信心退出第一季度，並帶走至少 1 億美元的庫存價值。並且正在製定生產計劃以使我們能夠做到這一點。對於當日目標，我們有一個模型，但我們已經同意，下一任財務長應該真正認可這個模型，因為他們將擁有這個模型，他們需要了解這個地圖。因此我可以告訴你，不會是 180 天，但我認為也不會回到 120 天。因此，我們會在某個時候向您介紹其樣子。

Our last question comes from Josh Buchalter with TD Cowen.

我們的最後一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Josh Buchalter。

And Prashanth, congratulations on the great run. You mentioned a few times under shipping in the print and the guidance. I was hoping you could maybe quantify the extent or maybe provide any sort of guidance to the amount that you're under shipping? And then given it sounds like seasonal fiscal first quarter isn't off the table. Does that mean we kind of expect you could be shipping to end demand exiting the October quarter?

並且 Prashanth，恭喜你有如此出色的成績。您在印刷品和指南中多次提到了運輸。我希望您能量化程度，或對您所運輸的數量提供任何指導？然後考慮到這聽起來像是季節性的第一個財季並沒有被排除在外。這是否意味著我們預計你們可以在 10 月季度結束後發貨以滿足終端需求？

I'll let Mike take the second part of that question because I'm not sure I fully comprehended it. But on the first one, so we have our business that goes through the channel and the business that goes direct. Business through the channel, we have the demand forecast from our distribution guys, and we are under shipping into the channel to help them pull inventory levels in the channel down. We said that in the second quarter earnings call that we were going to do that for China. This quarter, we're going to do it across the globe for all distis.

我讓麥克回答該問題的第二部分，因為我不確定我是否完全理解了它。但就第一個問題而言，我們的業務有透過管道進行的業務，也有直接進行的業務。透過通路開展業務，我們從分銷人員那裡獲得需求預測，並且我們正在向通路發貨，以幫助他們降低通路中的庫存水準。我們在第二季的財報電話會議上表示，我們將針對中國市場採取這項措施。本季度，我們將在全球範圍內為所有分銷商開展此業務。

Your second question on how to think about the under shipment into end demand that Vince referenced to. All I can really do is refer back to sort of the data analysis that we do. There's not a real way to aggregate that, except to say that we have a relatively good correlation between our end customers revenue growth and our growth to those end customers on an individual basis and when we look at how they grew in third quarter versus our shipments to them and how they're forecasting or you guys or consensus forecasting their fourth quarter growth versus our shipments to them, we know that we're going to be helping them to pull inventory levels down, which again makes tremendous sense because lead times have improved. And Mike, I didn't...

您的第二個問題是關於 Vince 提到的如何看待最終需求不足的問題。我真正能做的就是回顧我們所做的數據分析。沒有真正的方法來匯總這一點，只能說我們的最終客戶收入增長和我們對這些最終客戶的增長之間存在相對較好的相關性，當我們觀察他們在第三季度的增長情況與我們對他們的出貨量相比如何，以及他們如何預測或你們或共識預測他們第四季度的增長與我們對他們的出貨量相比如何時，我們知道我們將再次改善庫存水平，這已經有很大的意義，因為我們知道我們將再次改善庫存。麥克，我沒有......

Sure. on the first -- it's good question. If you look at the first quarter, we always typically undership consumption in the first quarter, why? You see a lot of our customers reduce their working capital going into end of the year-end. So the down 5% in our -- seeing the seasonal first quarter is below consumption. I think after that, you get back to kind of what Vince was saying you get coming back to demand and consumption, all kind of imbalance. And then it comes to a question of macro, what's happening in macro in our second quarter.

當然。首先——這是個好問題。如果你看第一季度，我們通常總是低估第一季的消費量，為什麼呢？您會發現許多客戶在年底時都會減少營運資金。因此，我們看到第一季的季節性下降 5% 低於消費量。我認為在此之後，你會回到文斯所說的那種情況，即需求和消費，以及各種不平衡的問題。然後談到宏觀問題，我們第二季的宏觀情況如何。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We once again will be on the road a lot this quarter. You'll find us in New York, Chicago, Florida, London and San Fran. Reach out to IR team to be notified when we are in your ZIP code. And with that, thanks for joining us and the interest in ADI.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。本季我們又會頻繁出行。您可以在紐約、芝加哥、佛羅裡達、倫敦和舊金山找到我們。當我們到達您的郵遞區號時，請聯絡 IR 團隊以取得通知。最後，感謝您的加入以及對 ADI 的關注。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 ADI 公司電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。