亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web. I'd like to now introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Sir, the floor is yours.

早上好，歡迎參加 Analog Devices 2023 財年第三季度收益電話會議，該電話會議正在通過電話和網絡進行音頻​​網絡直播。現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁 Michael Lucarelli 先生。先生，地板是你的了。

Thank you, Michelle, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our Third Quarter Fiscal '23 Conference Call. With me on the call today are ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche; and ADI's CFO, Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah. For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and relating financial schedules at investor.analog.com. on to the disclosures. The information we're about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties as further described in our earnings release, and other periodic reports and other materials filed with the SEC.

謝謝你，米歇爾，大家早上好。感謝您參加我們的 23 財年第三季度電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 ADI 首席執行官兼董事長 Vincent Roche；以及 ADI 首席財務官 Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah。對於那些錯過了該發布的人，您可以在 Investor.analog.com 上找到它以及相關的財務時間表。關於披露。我們將要討論的信息包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性在我們的收益報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他定期報告和其他材料中進一步描述。

Actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking information, as these statements reflect our expectations only at the date of this call. We undertake no obligation to update these statements except as required by law. Our comments today will also include non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude special items.

實際結果可能與前瞻性信息存在重大差異，因為這些陳述僅反映我們在本次電話會議之日的預期。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。我們今天的評論還將包括非公認會計準則財務指標，其中不包括特殊項目。

We are comparing our results to our historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior periods. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release.

我們將我們的結果與我們的歷史表現進行比較，特殊項目也被排除在前期之外。這些非公認會計準則衡量指標與其最直接可比的公認會計準則衡量指標的對賬以及有關我們非公認會計準則衡量指標的其他信息均包含在今天的收益發布中。

And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche. Vince?

接下來，我會將其交給 ADI 首席執行官兼董事長 Vincent Roche。文斯？

Thank you, Mike, and a very good morning to you all. ADI executed well in the third quarter and delivered results within our expectations despite the challenging operating environment. Revenue was nearly $3.1 billion, led by growth in our Industrial and Automotive markets once again. Gross margin remained strong, above 72%, operating margin was nearly 48% and EPS was $249 million. This continued profitability reflects our portfolio's resilience as well as the innovation premium that it commands. I want to turn to the current business environment now just for a moment. As we shared last quarter, we believe we're in a period of customer inventory reconciliation following 3 consecutive years of steady growth. Through our customer conversations, it's evident these accelerating inventory adjustments relate to the weakening macro backdrop and ADI's rapidly improving lead times.

謝謝你，邁克，祝大家早上好。儘管經營環境充滿挑戰，ADI 在第三季度的表現仍然良好，交付的業績符合我們的預期。在工業和汽車市場再次增長的帶動下，收入接近 31 億美元。毛利率依然強勁，超過 72%，營業利潤率接近 48%，每股收益為 2.49 億美元。這種持續的盈利能力反映了我們投資組合的彈性及其所帶來的創新溢價。我現在想談談當前的商業環境。正如我們上季度分享的那樣，我們相信在連續三年穩定增長之後，我們正處於客戶庫存調節期。通過我們與客戶的對話，很明顯，這些加速的庫存調整與疲軟的宏觀背景和 ADI 快速改善的交貨時間有關。

Importantly, we believe we shipped below end market consumption in the third quarter and expect to do so again in the fourth. This will help normalize our customers' inventory more quickly and position us to return to growth more quickly in the coming quarters.

重要的是，我們認為第三季度的出貨量低於終端市場消費量，並預計第四季度再次出現這種情況。這將有助於更快地使客戶的庫存正常化，並使我們能夠在未來幾個季度更快地恢復增長。

Stepping back, while near-term dynamics or turbulence, our long-term confidence remains undiminished. Over the last several decades, we have enhanced the resiliency of our global business, defined by our diversified customer and product portfolio and flexible hybrid manufacturing model. This enables us to ensure softer demand periods while sustaining strategic investments to ensure that we capitalize on the upside when the business inflects. It's these characteristics and our alignment to numerous concurrent secular growth trends that give us confidence that ADI will deliver on our long-term model of 7% to 10% revenue CAGR.

退一步來說，雖然近期動態或動盪，但我們的長期信心仍然沒有減弱。在過去的幾十年裡，我們通過多元化的客戶和產品組合以及靈活的混合製造模式增強了全球業務的彈性。這使我們能夠確保需求疲軟時期，同時維持戰略投資，以確保我們在業務發生變化時利用上行空間。正是這些特徵以及我們與眾多同時存在的長期增長趨勢的一致性，讓我們有信心 ADI 將實現 7% 至 10% 收入複合年增長率的長期模型。

Now one area underpinning this growth outlook are the applications tied to sustainable use cases, which currently represents about 1/3 of our total revenue. And today, I want to unpack a vital part of this, the evolving electrification ecosystem that is driving growth in our industrial and automotive markets. As the world marches to net 0, we need to eliminate 51 gigatons of global greenhouse gases emitted every year. Fossil fuels are by far the largest contributor accounting for more than 75% of all emissions. And at the same time, global energy consumption is forecasted to increase by 50% by 2050. A major unnecessary energy transition is underway and an upgraded and expanded energy grid is foundational to support a decarbonization pathway.

現在支撐這一增長前景的一個領域是與可持續用例相關的應用程序，目前約占我們總收入的 1/3。今天，我想解析其中的一個重要部分，即不斷發展的電氣化生態系統，它正在推動我們的工業和汽車市場的增長。隨著世界邁向淨零排放，我們每年需要消除 51 十億噸全球溫室氣體排放。化石燃料是迄今為止最大的排放源，佔所有排放量的 75% 以上。與此同時，預計到 2050 年，全球能源消耗將增加 50%。一場不必要的重大能源轉型正在進行中，升級和擴大的能源網是支持脫碳路徑的基礎。

Making the shift through renewable energy sources in both commercial and residential infrastructure as well as electric vehicles and global transportation will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These moves also create new challenges in the generation distribution, consumption and smoothing of energy supply. ADI solutions are embedded across all phases of this electrification journey from upgrading the grid infrastructure to forming and managing the vehicle battery.

在商業和住宅基礎設施以及電動汽車和全球交通領域通過可再生能源進行轉變將減少溫室氣體排放。這些舉措也給發電分配、消費和能源供應的平滑帶來了新的挑戰。 ADI 解決方案嵌入到電氣化進程的所有階段，從升級電網基礎設施到形成和管理汽車電池。

The common thread woven through all these applications is the high-performance precision signal processing, control and power management capabilities they require, capabilities in which ADI excels.

所有這些應用的共同點是它們所需的高性能精密信號處理、控制和電源管理功能，而 ADI 在這方面表現出色。

Now today, I'll bring the story to life at the application level, starting with grid infrastructure. Overall, today's electrical grid is undergoing modernization to meet current and future demands. Historically, traditional energy sources like coal, oil and gas were centralized and distributed in one direction from the grid to the consumer.

今天，我將從應用程序層面生動地講述這個故事，從網格基礎設施開始。總體而言，當今的電網正在進行現代化改造，以滿足當前和未來的需求。從歷史上看，煤炭、石油和天然氣等傳統能源都是集中的，並從電網到消費者的單向分佈。

Today, renewable energy sources like wind and solar are more distributed necessitating a dynamic bidirectional flow of energy. To achieve this, the grid must be able to adjust performance across the network in real time, which requires an exponential increase in monitoring and storage capabilities. And for example, our collaboration with the Enel Group provides smart meters and grid digitalization solutions for distribution system operators.

如今，風能和太陽能等可再生能源的分佈更加分散，需要動態的雙向能源流動。為了實現這一目標，網格必須能夠實時調整整個網絡的性能，這需要監控和存儲能力呈指數級增長。例如，我們與 Enel 集團合作，為配電系統運營商提供智能電錶和電網數字化解決方案。

Here, ADI's control and sensing technologies are enabling high-performance, precision monitoring and data creation at the heart of the digital substation. And we're leveraging our mixed-signal digital and algorithm technologies to enable greater intelligence at the grid's edge.

在這裡，ADI 的控制和傳感技術正在數字變電站的核心實現高性能、精確的監控和數據創建。我們正在利用混合信號數字和算法技術在電網邊緣實現更高的智能。

Now moving to energy storage systems, which are critical to mitigate intermittency issues across the network. ADI is a leader with our technologies used in 60% of energy storage systems across residential, commercial and grid scale networks. Leveraging our battery management system technology or BMS. We're increasing capacity and improving energy utilization in energy storage systems, which maximizes the battery's lifetime value. These monitoring and storage challenges extend to the grid's edge as well, including EV charging stations, ADI's energy metrology, isolation and sensing technologies, help enable a broader range of applications in AC and DC charging equipment.

現在轉向能源存儲系統，這對於緩解整個網絡的間歇性問題至關重要。 ADI 處於領先地位，我們的技術應用於住宅、商業和電網規模網絡中 60% 的儲能係統。利用我們的電池管理系統技術或 BMS。我們正在增加儲能係統的容量並提高能源利用率，從而最大限度地提高電池的使用壽命。這些監控和存儲挑戰也延伸到了電網邊緣，包括電動汽車充電站，ADI 的能源計量、隔離和傳感技術有助於在交流和直流充電設備中實現更廣泛的應用。

In addition to these important applications in our highly diverse industrial segment, our high-performance signal processing platforms and domain expertise are helping to electrify the automotive market. Here, our technology is a key enabler in the transition from combustion engines to cleaner electric vehicles by increasing range and lowering cost. And I'll start with BMS.

除了我們高度多樣化的工業領域中的這些重要應用之外，我們的高性能信號處理平台和領域專業知識還有助於汽車市場的電氣化。在這裡，我們的技術通過增加續航里程和降低成本，成為從內燃機汽車向清潔電動汽車過渡的關鍵推動因素。我將從 BMS 開始。

As we've shared before, we are the leader in this area with our BMS solution designed into 16 of the top 20 EV manufacturers. We're currently sampling our eighth generation solution, which utilizes software and algorithms to enable physical measurement capabilities all the way into the battery cell. These advances in edge processing change the game in how the internal battery health is managed, supporting faster charging and better range prediction. An extension of this is our wireless BMS solution, a first in the industry. It has all the benefits of our wired solution and enables a scalable battery architecture, with quicker and more cost-effective production cycles.

正如我們之前所分享的，我們是該領域的領導者，我們的 BMS 解決方案已為 20 強電動汽車製造商中的 16 家設計。我們目前正在對第八代解決方案進行採樣，該解決方案利用軟件和算法將物理測量功能一直引入到電池中。邊緣處理方面的這些進步改變了內部電池健康管理方式，支持更快的充電和更好的續航里程預測。我們的無線 BMS 解決方案是對此的延伸，這在業內尚屬首例。它具有我們有線解決方案的所有優點，並支持可擴展的電池架構，具有更快、更具成本效益的生產週期。

Currently, our wireless BMS is designed in at 4 OEMs, and we expect another large OEM to adopt it in the coming quarters. Given this momentum and the cutting-edge value proposition, we believe the wireless platform will represent a large portion of our BMS revenue by the end of the decade. And looking ahead, we're broadening our EV capabilities beyond battery management and storage to power conversion solutions. Specifically, we're developing a silicon carbide-based smart switch for bidirectional onboard charging that significantly reduces charger size and weight by over 50%, thus driving down cost. Notably, this intelligent integrated switch enables the EV to transfer energy back into the network, creating a more reliable grid. And this innovation solution more than doubles our content opportunity per EV powertrain.

目前，我們的無線 BMS 已為 4 家 OEM 設計，我們預計另一家大型 OEM 將在未來幾個季度採用它。鑑於這種勢頭和前沿的價值主張，我們相信到本世紀末，無線平台將占我們 BMS 收入的很大一部分。展望未來，我們正在將我們的電動汽車功能從電池管理和存儲擴展到電源轉換解決方案。具體來說，我們正在開發一種基於碳化矽的智能開關，用於雙向車載充電，可將充電器的尺寸和重量顯著減小 50% 以上，從而降低成本。值得注意的是，這種智能集成開關使電動汽車能夠將能量傳輸回網絡，從而創建更可靠的電網。這一創新解決方案使我們每個電動汽車動力系統的內容機會增加了一倍以上。

So in summary, ADI is driven by a deep sense of purpose and a desire for our innovations to positively impact all stakeholders. We're immensely proud of the role our technologies play to improve the well-being of humanity and indeed the planet, and I remain very confident in our future. Our portfolio of cutting-edge technologies, world-class talent base are aligned with an unprecedented number of attractive secular trends, where the semiconductor content per dollar of CapEx is increasing tremendously. This presents ADI with continued profitable growth opportunities as well as the ability to shape the future of industries.

總而言之，ADI 的驅動力是深刻的使命感和對我們的創新能夠對所有利益相關者產生積極影響的願望。我們對我們的技術在改善人類乃至地球福祉方面所發揮的作用感到非常自豪，我對我們的未來仍然充滿信心。我們的尖端技術組合、世界一流的人才基礎與前所未有的有吸引力的長期趨勢相一致，其中每美元資本支出的半導體含量正在大幅增加。這為 ADI 提供了持續盈利增長的機會以及塑造行業未來的能力。

And so with that, I'll hand it over to Prashanth.

因此，我將把它交給 Prashanth。

Thank you, Vince. Let me add my welcome to our third quarter earnings call. My comments today, with the exception of revenue will be on an adjusted basis, which excludes special items outlined in today's press release. While demand continued to soften throughout the quarter, ADI delivered nearly $3.1 billion revenue, in line with our guidance. This was driven by continued year-over-year growth for both Industrial and Automotive.

謝謝你，文斯。讓我對第三季度財報電話會議表示歡迎。我今天的評論，除了收入之外，將在調整的基礎上進行調整，其中不包括今天新聞稿中概述的特殊項目。儘管整個季度需求持續疲軟，但 ADI 實現了近 31 億美元的收入，符合我們的指引。這是由工業和汽車行業持續同比增長推動的。

Looking at our performance by end market. Industrial, which represented 53% of revenue, finished down 7% sequentially after a tremendous stretch of 13 straight quarters of sequential growth. On a year-over-year basis, revenue increased 4% with most applications up, led by sustainable energy as well as aerospace and defense, which each grew double digits. Automotive, which represented 24% of revenue, was down modestly sequentially in line with our expectations. Year-over-year growth of 15% was broad-based. We saw continued outsized growth for ADI's leading battery management and in-cabin connectivity solutions, which collectively increased nearly 30% year-over-year. Communications, which represented 12% of revenue, decreased double digits, both sequentially and year-over-year due to the broad-based inventory correction we flagged previously.

看看我們在終端市場的表現。佔收入 53% 的工業部門在連續 13 個季度實現大幅增長後，環比下跌 7%。與去年同期相比，收入增長了 4%，其中大多數應用都出現了增長，其中以可持續能源以及航空航天和國防為首，各領域均實現了兩位數增長。汽車業務佔收入的 24%，環比小幅下降，符合我們的預期。 15% 的同比增長是廣泛的。我們看到 ADI 領先的電池管理和車內連接解決方​​案持續大幅增長，同比增長近 30%。由於我們之前指出的廣泛庫存調整，佔收入 12% 的通信業務環比和同比均下降了兩位數。

And lastly, consumer, which represented 10% of revenue came in stronger than expected, finishing up 15% sequentially, but down 21% year-over-year. We remain optimistic that our second quarter marked the bottom for this business despite the ongoing inventory correction.

最後，佔收入 10% 的消費者業務表現強於預期，環比增長 15%，但同比下降 21%。儘管庫存持續調整，但我們仍然樂觀地認為，第二季度標誌著該業務的底部。

And now on to the rest of the P&L. Gross margin of 72.2% remains industry-leading, but declined sequentially due to lower utilization and product mix. Operating expenses of $752 million were roughly flat year-over-year and up sequentially. This quarter's OpEx reflects the full impact of annual merit increases. Operating margin of 47.8% contracted 230 basis points year-over-year, roughly in line with the gross margin decline. Non-op expenses were $57 million, and our tax rate was 11.2%. All told, EPS came in at $2.49 within our guidance range.

現在來看看損益表的其餘部分。 72.2% 的毛利率仍處於行業領先地位，但由於利用率和產品組合下降而環比下降。運營支出為 7.52 億美元，與去年同期基本持平，但環比有所上升。本季度的運營支出反映了年度績效增長的全部影響。營業利潤率為 47.8%，同比下降 230 個基點，與毛利率下降大致一致。非運營費用為 5700 萬美元，稅率為 11.2%。總而言之，每股收益為 2.49 美元，在我們的指導範圍內。

Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with over $1.1 billion of cash and a net leverage ratio of 0.8. Given the revenue pressures and our decision to hold more finished goods versus restocking the channel, inventory dollars increased and the days of inventory moved higher to 179. As a result, channel inventory remains below our target level and slightly declined. Specifically, we strategically undershipped Asia, especially China, due to weaker demand trends. CapEx was $325 million for the quarter as we invest to enhance ADI's global resiliency and offer our customers options on where their products are sourced. 2023 should represent the high watermark for CapEx, and we expect it to decline in 2024.

轉向資產負債表。本季度結束時，我們擁有超過 11 億美元的現金，淨槓桿率為 0.8。考慮到收入壓力以及我們決定持有更多成品而不是重新進貨渠道，庫存美元增加，庫存天數上升至 179 天。因此，渠道庫存仍低於我們的目標水平並略有下降。具體來說，由於需求趨勢疲軟，我們戰略性地減少了亞洲，尤其是中國的出貨量。本季度的資本支出為 3.25 億美元，因為我們進行投資以增強 ADI 的全球彈性，並為客戶提供產品來源選擇。 2023 年應該代表資本支出的高水位，我們預計它會在 2024 年下降。

Importantly, our investments do not include the benefits of tax credit and grant funds that we anticipate from both the U.S. and the European Chips Act. Over the trailing 12 months, we've generated $3.7 billion of free cash flow or 29% of revenue. And over the same period, we've returned nearly $5 billion to shareholders or over 130% of free cash flow via more than $3.3 billion in buybacks and more than $1.6 billion in dividends.

重要的是，我們的投資不包括我們預期從美國和歐洲芯片法案中獲得的稅收抵免和補助資金的好處。在過去 12 個月裡，我們產生了 37 億美元的自由現金流，佔收入的 29%。同期，我們通過超過 33 億美元的回購和超過 16 億美元的股息向股東返還了近 50 億美元，即超過 130% 的自由現金流。

Now turning to the Q4 guidance. We expect the fourth quarter revenue to be $2.7 billion, plus or minus $100 million. This outlook assumes sell-in to be below sell-through. At the midpoint of our outlook, we expect all markets to be down sequentially given the broad-based inventory correction. On a relative basis, Auto and Consumer should perform a bit better than Industrial and Comms.

現在轉向第四季度的指導。我們預計第四季度營收為 27 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。這一前景假設賣出量低於賣出量。在我們的展望中點，鑑於廣泛的庫存調整，我們預計所有市場都將連續下跌。相對而言，汽車和消費品行業的表現應該比工業和通信行業好一些。

Operating margin is expected to be 44% plus or minus 70 basis points. This margin outlook embeds planned utilization reductions and a decline in OpEx. Our tax rate is expected to be between 11% and 13%. And based on these inputs, adjusted EPS is expected to be $2 plus or minus $0.10.

營業利潤率預計為 44%，上下浮動 70 個基點。這一利潤率前景包含了計劃中的利用率削減和運營支出的下降。我們的稅率預計在 11% 至 13% 之間。根據這些投入，調整後每股收益預計為 2 美元正負 0.10 美元。

As our outlook is lower than expected, let me provide some context on what we're experiencing and how we will navigate. Our revenue outlook reflects the broad-based macro softness across all end markets, all geographies and customers both large and small. We are also strategically improving lead times to get a better view into demand and enhance customer satisfaction. Today, we're shipping over 85% of our products within 13 weeks, and this is up from 35% a year ago. As Vince mentioned, we are seeing customers accelerate inventory adjustments due to both the softer environment and our lead time improvements. And as such, we're taking measures to preserve the integrity of our balance sheet, cash flow and income statement. This includes further reducing utilization and lowering external wafer purchases with a goal to decrease inventory meaningfully in the coming quarters.

由於我們的前景低於預期，讓我提供一些有關我們正在經歷的情況以及我們將如何應對的背景信息。我們的收入前景反映了所有終端市場、所有地區和大大小小的客戶的廣泛宏觀疲軟。我們還戰略性地縮短交貨時間，以更好地了解需求並提高客戶滿意度。如今，我們超過 85% 的產品在 13 週內發貨，這一數字高於一年前的 35%。正如文斯提到的，由於環境疲軟和我們的交貨時間縮短，我們看到客戶加速庫存調整。因此，我們正在採取措施保持資產負債表、現金流和損益表的完整性。這包括進一步降低利用率和減少外部晶圓採購，目標是在未來幾個季度大幅減少庫存。

And importantly, as we've outlined before, we expect gross margins will maintain a 70% level on a trailing 12-month basis. This gross margin resiliency is a testament to the flexibility of our hybrid manufacturing model and our unique swing capacity capability.

重要的是，正如我們之前概述的那樣，我們預計過去 12 個月的毛利率將保持在 70% 的水平。這種毛利率彈性證明了我們混合製造模式的靈活性和我們獨特的產能能力。

In addition to the naturally lower variable comp, we're also taking steps to reduce total OpEx by roughly $50 million sequentially. So stepping back, we're not ready to call the bottom yet but our history shows that we cycle up quickly. And when we do, we will achieve higher highs. ADI has built a very resilient business, rich with opportunities. Our diversification and exposure to numerous secular trends drives our durable earnings stream and solid free cash flow, enabling us to consistently return capital to shareholders. And to that end, over the trailing 12 months, we've returned $5 billion to shareholders or more than 5% of our market cap.

除了自然降低的可變薪酬之外，我們還採取措施將總運營支出連續減少約 5000 萬美元。因此，退一步來說，我們還沒有準備好觸底，但我們的歷史表明我們正在快速循環。當我們這樣做時，我們將達到更高的高度。 ADI 建立了一個非常有彈性、充滿機遇的業務。我們的多元化和對眾多長期趨勢的接觸推動了我們持久的盈利流和穩定的自由現金流，使我們能夠持續向股東返還資本。為此，在過去 12 個月裡，我們已向股東返還 50 億美元，占我們市值的 5% 以上。

As this is my last ADI earnings call, I'd like to give a quick thank you to Vince for his mentorship and counsel over the past 6 years to the ADI Board, including our audit chair, Karen Golz, for their unwavering support and most importantly, to the world-class finance staff, including young Mike here for always reminding us of our commitments to you, the company's owners. I look forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks as we get on the road. Mike, let's go to Q&A.

由於這是我最後一次 ADI 財報電話會議，我想快速感謝 Vince 在過去 6 年中對 ADI 董事會的指導和建議，包括我們的審計主席 Karen Golz，感謝他們堅定不移的支持和最重要的幫助。重要的是，感謝世界一流的財務人員，包括年輕的邁克，他們始終提醒我們對您（公司所有者）的承諾。我期待著在接下來的幾週內我們上路時見到你們中的許多人。邁克，我們開始問答吧。

Thanks, Prashanth. I don't think I've been called young in some time, but I appreciate that. Now let's get to our Q&A session. We ask to limit yourself to 1 question in order to allow for additional participants on the call this morning. You have a follow-up question, please requeue and we'll take your question if time allows. With that, can be our first question, please.

謝謝，普拉珊特。我想我已經不再被稱為年輕了，但我很感激這一點。現在讓我們進入問答環節。我們要求將您的問題限制在 1 個以內，以便讓更多的人參加今天早上的電話會議。您有後續問題，請重新排隊，如果時間允許，我們會處理您的問題。那麼，這是我們的第一個問題。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

I have a question for Vince. So I know you're not ready to call a bottom. But some industry observers would say that this sort of inventory build started maybe late 2021, early 2022 based on your guidance for the October quarter, you're sort of back to that level. So then you've seen these cycles, you've seen many of them. They're all different. But just wanted to get a sense for you what you think we're getting close, especially given what I just said about that inventory adjustment now sort of being complete?

我有一個問題要問文斯。所以我知道你還沒有準備好宣告底部。但一些行業觀察人士會說，根據您對 10 月份季度的指導，這種庫存建設可能會在 2021 年底或 2022 年初開始，有點回到了那個水平。那麼你已經看到了這些週期，你已經看到了其中的許多周期。他們都是不同的。但只是想讓您了解您認為我們正在接近什麼，特別是考慮到我剛才所說的庫存調整現在已經完成？

Yes. Thanks, Tore. When I look at this current cycle, the symptoms are always the same in these cycles, but the causes tend to have different components. And I think right now, there are 2 kind of inputs to this particular correction. I think one is the inventory in digestion that exists out there that has been building for 18, 24 months now. And the second, of course, is the macroeconomic situation, which is a major governor as well. But I think if you look at what we understand from the direct side of our business, for example, when we look at our largest customers revenue growth and their forecast compared to our growth at these very same customers, we believe that we've been shipping the low-end consumption in the third and will in the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝，托雷。當我觀察當前的周期時，這些週期中的症狀總是相同的，但原因往往有不同的組成部分。我認為現在這個特定的修正有兩種輸入。我認為其中之一是消化中的庫存，已經積累了 18、24 個月了。第二個當然是宏觀經濟形勢，這也是一個主要因素。但我認為，如果你從我們業務的直接方面來了解我們的理解，例如，當我們查看我們最大的客戶的收入增長及其與我們在這些相同客戶的增長相比的預測時，我們相信我們一直在第三季度和第四季度將出貨低端消費。

So I think one way to look at this is how long will the inventory correction take? My sense is it will be 2 to 3 quarters before we get through the inventory digestion cycle, and I think we're positioned as a company to get beyond it quite fast because we've been managing our factories very carefully, managing our inventories, both on our own balance sheet as well as our distribution channel. So we've also, I think, taken a long-term view to the demand patterns of our customers. We haven't, in any way, forced them into, for example, long-term supply agreements, essentially, at this point in the cycle, that will be forcing them to take products that they don't really need.

所以我認為看待這個問題的一種方法是庫存調整需要多長時間？我的感覺是，我們需要 2 到 3 個季度才能完成庫存消化週期，我認為我們的定位是一家能夠很快超越這個週期的公司，因為我們一直非常仔細地管理我們的工廠，管理我們的庫存，既體現在我們自己的資產負債表上，也體現在我們的分銷渠道上。因此，我認為我們也對客戶的需求模式採取了長遠的眼光。例如，我們沒有以任何方式強迫他們簽訂長期供應協議，本質上，在周期的這個階段，這將迫使他們採取他們並不真正需要的產品。

We've been managing our channel aggressively. So as I said, we're keeping more inventory on our own balance sheet. So again, we will get to distribute the supply ultimately where we think it's needed when the recovery gets underway here. So that's my sense, sorry. I mean, in the industry, if you look back to the dot com cycle, you look at the 2008 financial crisis cycle, most of the downturns tended to last 3 to 4 quarters. So my sense is over the next 2, 3 quarters, we begin to see a recovery here, at least on the inventory side. And then it's really a question of how does the macro-economy perform?

我們一直在積極管理我們的渠道。正如我所說，我們在自己的資產負債表上保留了更多庫存。因此，當經濟復甦開始時，我們最終將把供應分配到我們認為需要的地方。這就是我的感覺，抱歉。我的意思是，在這個行業，如果你回顧一下互聯網周期，看看2008年的金融危機週期，大多數低迷往往會持續3到4個季度。所以我的感覺是，在接下來的兩三個季度，我們開始看到復蘇，至少在庫存方面。那麼這實際上是一個宏觀經濟表現如何的問題？

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

Best wishes again to Prashanth on his next adventure. You said that you're not ready to call the bottom yet and Vince, you mentioned that the inventory digestion period could last for some more time. How should we think about Q1 seasonality? It tends to be down kind of mid-single digit. Do you think we should be prepared for something different than that? right? And if it is worse than kind of mid-single digit, do you still think that ADI can maintain gross margins above 70%. So just kind of puts and takes to help us align our models would be very useful.

再次祝愿 Prashanth 開啟下一次冒險之旅。你說你還沒有準備好觸底，文斯，你提到庫存消化期可能會持續一段時間。我們應該如何看待第一季度的季節性？它往往會下降中個位數。您認為我們應該為不同的事情做好準備嗎？正確的？如果比中個位數更差，您是否仍然認為 ADI 可以將毛利率維持在 70% 以上。因此，僅僅通過 put 和 take 來幫助我們調整模型就會非常有用。

Why don't I take that, Vivek. So first, quick comments just to make sure everyone has the Q4 guide, correct. So on the channel, as I said in the prepared remarks, we are shipping in below the forecast we have from our channel partners. So we are intentionally bringing channel inventories down to help set us up for some better strength.

我為什麼不接受這個，維維克。首先，快速發表評論，以確保每個人都擁有正確的第四季度指南。因此，在渠道上，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們的出貨量低於渠道合作夥伴的預測。因此，我們有意降低渠道庫存，以幫助我們增強實力。

The -- included in the guide is the backlog coverage has some turns, but less than normal given the higher level of uncertainty. So we would need some more turns and positive book-to-bill, which Vince mentioned is likely to be a quarter or 2 out. And then just from an end market standpoint, we've got all end markets down quarter-over-quarter.

指南中包含的內容是，積壓的覆蓋範圍出現了一些變化，但鑑於不確定性較高，但低於正常水平。因此，我們需要更多的周轉和積極的訂單出貨比，文斯提到這可能是四分之一或兩個。然後，僅從終端市場的角度來看，我們發現所有終端市場都出現季度環比下降。

So as you know, we don't guide out further than the current quarter, but some color is I think you essentially have it right. There's no reason to think that first quarter would not be down seasonal on a, which would call it, mid-single digit quarter-over-quarter. But that we -- our view is going to be driven by the holidays and the customer decisions to reduce inventory as they go into the year-end.

如您所知，我們不會提供比當前季度更進一步的指導，但我認為您基本上是對的。沒有理由認為第一季度季度環比不會出現中個位數的季節性下滑。但我們的觀點將受到假期和客戶在年底減少庫存的決定的推動。

So we're not, at this point, seeing a more meaningful step down in Q1 based on what we can know today. And I will just remember to plant and everyone as you start to model out Q1 that every once in a couple of years, we have a 14-week quarter, and that will be Q1 of '24.

因此，根據我們今天所知的情況，目前我們還沒有看到第一季度出現更有意義的下降。當你開始為第一季度建模時，我會記住，每隔幾年，我們就會有一個為期 14 週的季度，這將是 24 年的第一季度。

And then on gross margins, I think we're actually quite proud of our gross margin story here that we've been -- we've messaged a number of times that we would have the ability to maintain a 70% gross margin in a -- on a trailing 12-month basis with a peak to trough decline of 15%. Q4 is down about 17% from the Q2 peak. And while we didn't give you a gross margin number, if you impute it from the OpEx math that I gave you, you'll see that we are able to hold that north of 70%, and we'll continue to work that. For Q1, gross margins, my best sense now would be that we are likely to face a little more challenge on the utilization level as we bring inventory levels down, but we have been very successful in activating our swing capacity.

然後在毛利率方面，我認為我們實際上對我們的毛利率故事感到非常自豪，我們已經多次表示，我們將有能力在一段時間內保持 70% 的毛利率。 ——過去12 個月的基礎上，從高峰到低谷下降了15%。第四季度較第二季度峰值下降約 17%。雖然我們沒有給你一個毛利率數字，但如果你根據我給你的運營支出數學計算得出它，你會發現我們能夠保持在 70% 以上，我們將繼續努力。對於第一季度的毛利率，我現在最好的感覺是，隨著我們降低庫存水平，我們可能會在利用率水平上面臨更多挑戰，但我們在激活我們的產能方面非常成功。

We're actually doing about 10% better on utilizations because we have swing than if we hadn't activated it. So it's been a very powerful lever for us. And and we need to see how the math on all of that works out for Q1, but I wouldn't expect Q1 to be notably different from kind of where we are for Q4.

事實上，我們的利用率提高了大約 10%，因為我們有擺動，比沒有激活它要好。所以這對我們來說是一個非常強大的槓桿。我們需要看看第一季度所有這些的數學結果如何，但我不認為第一季度與第四季度有明顯不同。

Yes. I'd like to add one other comment, Vivek, to what Prashanth has said. So the other side of margin is pricing, and pricing is very stable. It's very, very stable, resilient. I don't expect that to change. And our products are very, very sticky. We've got tremendous life cycles and that part of our business, this is really a unit correction in the business rather than price or share.

是的。 Vivek，我想對 Prashanth 所說的話添加另一條評論。所以保證金的另一面就是定價，而且定價非常穩定。它非常非常穩定，有彈性。我不希望這種情況發生改變。我們的產品非常非常粘。我們有巨大的生命週期，而我們業務的這一部分，這實際上是業務中的單位修正，而不是價格或份額。

Our next question comes from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

This is old Ambrish, Young Mike, can feel free to chime in. I was looking at the year-over-year comms, and I look at TI as your closest peer rival competitor. Vince, they started going into a year-over-year decline in 4Q '22 and you are just starting, and you said 2 to 3 quarters. So in the past history does suggest that usually on a year-over-year basis, we see roughly around 4 to 5 quarters of year decline. Is that the right way to think about your business? You said 2 to 3 quarters of digestion and I'm assuming that means year-over-year decline in reps, right?

我是老安布里什，年輕的邁克，可以隨意插話。我正在查看逐年的通訊，我將 TI 視為最接近的同行競爭對手。 Vince，他們在 22 年第四季度開始同比下降，而你才剛剛開始，你說的是 2 到 3 個季度。因此，過去的歷史確實表明，通常與去年同期相比，我們會看到每年大約有 4 到 5 個季度的下降。這是思考您的業務的正確方式嗎？你說的是 2 到 3 個季度的消化，我假設這意味著代表次數同比下降，對嗎？

Yes. Good question, Ambrish. So yes, look, I mean, Comms is just a piece of ADI's overall story. We've actually seen -- I mean, we have 2 components as well. We've got wire line, we have wireless. I would say on the wire line side of things, we've seen the malaise going back into the late part of '22, early part of '23. So that's really things like optical control for data center and carrier networks, and power. We've got a power business there as well. So we think we'll see that, we expect to see CapEx somewhat recover in that space to be able to catch up with the needs, for example, driven by the explosion in computing power that's required to handle the AI inflection here, for example. So -- my sense is the wire line part will probably start its recovery in the first -- second quarter of the year.

是的。好問題，安布里什。所以，是的，我的意思是，通信只是 ADI 整體故事的一部分。我們實際上已經看到——我的意思是，我們也有兩個組件。我們有有線，我們有無線。我想說的是，在有線方面，我們已經看到這種萎靡狀態可以追溯到 22 世紀末、23 年初。這實際上是數據中心和運營商網絡的光控制以及電力等。我們在那裡也有電力業務。因此，我們認為我們會看到這一點，我們預計該領域的資本支出會有所恢復，以便能夠滿足需求，例如，在處理人工智能變化所需的計算能力爆炸性推動下，例如。因此，我的感覺是，有線部分可能會在今年第一季度和第二季度開始復蘇。

Wireless is a little harder to call. It's very, very dynamic. We all know that. The developed countries, particularly North America, 5G deployments, which have really been focused on coverage rather than capacity. They're going to be weaker than we thought. So that's probably going to give us headwinds for how long, we don't know, but I think it could be several quarters during our FY '24. India has been very strong this year, of course. And I think we're expecting to see more commitments to lay in both coverage and capacity in India during our FY '24.

無線通話有點困難。這是非常非常有活力的。我們都知道。發達國家，尤其是北美，5G部署實際上更注重覆蓋而不是容量。他們會比我們想像的更弱。因此，這可能會給我們帶來多長時間的阻力，我們不知道，但我認為在我們 24 財年期間可能會持續幾個季度。當然，印度今年表現非常強勁。我認為我們期望在 24 財年期間看到印度在覆蓋範圍和容量方面做出更多承諾。

So look, we've got leadership in many of these areas, like optical control systems, 5G, software-defined solutions. It's really a question of timing in my mind. But -- there's a lot of uncertainty in the communications market in totality and particularly in wireless at this point. So hopefully, that gives you the answer to your question.

所以看，我們在許多領域都處於領先地位，比如光學控制系統、5G、軟件定義的解決方案。在我看來，這確實是一個時間問題。但是，整個通信市場存在很多不確定性，尤其是目前的無線市場。希望這能為您提供問題的答案。

Well, I was asking about the overall business, Vince, not just about the Comms, sorry.

好吧，我問的是整體業務，文斯，不僅僅是通訊，抱歉。

Okay. yes. Look, I think, Ambrish, the overall business. We see some trends, for example, that will transcend the inventory digestion problem. And even the macro-economy areas like digital healthcare, like aerospace and defense, the sustainable energy theme that we spoke to a little while ago. So again, I will just reiterate my sense is the inventory digestion problem will last probably 2, 3 quarters, and then we'll get back into a unit volume increase from there on.

好的。是的。安布里什，我想，看看整個業務。例如，我們看到一些趨勢將超越庫存消化問題。甚至包括數字醫療保健、航空航天和國防等宏觀經濟領域，以及我們剛才談到的可持續能源主題。因此，我再次重申我的觀點，即庫存消化問題可能會持續 2、3 個季度，然後我們將從那時起恢復單位銷量的增長。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自史黛西·拉斯岡和伯恩斯坦。

Prashanth, I don't want to be pedantic on Q1, but I know you said right now, down seasonal, but also as an extra week. That extra week, if I just linearize it is like a plus 7. So do those cancel out? Or is it like it's the week between Christmas and New Year, so it's not a lot of revenue? Or just how do I think about the balance of those 2 things into Q1, assuming a Q1 that was...

Prashanth，我不想在第一季度迂腐，但我知道你現在說過，季節性下降，但也增加了一周。額外的一周，如果我只是線性化它就像加7。那麼這些會抵消嗎？或者是因為這是聖誕節和新年之間的一周，所以收入不是很多？或者我如何考慮第一季度這兩件事的平衡，假設第一季度是......

So when I gave you my comments of down seasonal that was on a 13-week basis, the 14-week was just a reminder as you model it. So Mike, do you want to do the math, but I think you're essentially thinking about it right.

因此，當我以 13 週為基礎向您提供淡季評論時，14 週只是您建模時的一個提醒。那麼邁克，你想做數學嗎？但我認為你基本上思考的是正確的。

Yes. So as Prashanth said, let's take a first 13-week quarter. What happens normally in 1Q and a 13-week quarter our business is down, call it, 5%, plus or minus, total business. Now with an extra week, that adds about 7.5%, both on the revenue side and the OpEx side. So there's 2 pieces, normal, down 5% total company, in the 14-week quarter, you can add 7.5% of revenue and OpEx. That's the best way to think about it.

是的。正如 Prashanth 所說，讓我們以第一個 13 週的季度為例。通常情況下，第一季度和為期 13 週的季度我們的業務會下降，稱之為總業務的 5%（上下）。現在再多一周，收入和運營支出都會增加約 7.5%。因此，有 2 件，正常情況下，公司總數下降 5%，在 14 週的季度中，您可以增加 7.5% 的收入和運營支出。這是最好的思考方式。

And thank you for clarifying that, Stacy, I wasn't clear in my answer.

謝謝你澄清這一點，史黛西，我的回答不清楚。

Okay. And then that would drop off into Q2, though, you go the other way in Q2. So Q2 under like normal circumstances would be worse than seasonal because you have that extra week drop off?

好的。然後，這將下降到第二季度，不過，你在第二季度走的是另一條路。那麼，在正常情況下，第二季度會比季節性情況更糟糕，因為你有額外一周的下降？

Yes. So again, you can parse it in normal times, 2Q is up, call it, 2% to 5% and a 13-week to [13-week] quarter, if you take away an extra week, yes, you have a 7.5% headwind. They have got 1Q.

是的。所以再說一次，你可以在正常情況下解析它，第二季度已經上升，稱之為，2% 到 5% 和 13 周到 [13 週] 季度，如果你多拿一周，是的，你有 7.5 %逆風。他們有1Q。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. I have another one, but I guess I don't want to get that band next time, so I....

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。我還有另一個，但我想下次我不想再得到那個樂隊了，所以我......

I'll allow another question because that's a good clarifying question, Stacy.

我會允許另一個問題，因為這是一個很好的澄清問題，史黛西。

Okay. I just wanted to ask about OpEx into next year. So it sounds like you're guiding it to about $700 million in the Q4. How do I think about it next year into a revenue year that's likely to be down potentially reasonably materially. Like how should we think about OpEx just year-over-year for fiscal '24 versus '23?

好的。我只是想問一下明年的運營支出。所以聽起來你在第四季度將其目標引導至約 7 億美元。我如何看待明年的收入可能會大幅下降的情況。比如，我們應該如何看待 24 財年與 23 財年的運營支出同比情況？

Yes. I think, Stacy, as we've always said, we run this business for the long term. So we're going to make the adjustments that are prudent to make on the discretionary side, adjusting the variable comp and where we can, but the value of this company comes from its innovation. So I wouldn't expect meaningfully more attack on the spending into 2024. But remember that our variable comp is designed to be highly accordion. So if '24 plays out as a down year, you will see that meaningfully unwind for us. Anything else...

是的。我想，史黛西，正如我們一直說的，我們經營這項業務是為了長期發展。因此，我們將在酌情方面做出謹慎的調整，盡可能地調整可變薪酬，但這家公司的價值來自於它的創新。因此，我預計 2024 年的支出不會受到更多有意義的攻擊。但請記住，我們的可變補償被設計為高度手風琴。因此，如果 24 年表現不佳，你會發現這對我們來說是有意義的放鬆。還要別的嗎...

Is that $700 million runway Mike, is that like the right run rate to think about?

邁克，那條價值 7 億美元的跑道是不是值得考慮的正確運行率？

That's not a crazy level to think about for the year. I think if you take a step back and look at kind of what we're trying to manage within our control. We talked about gross margin maintaining at 70% a trailing 12-month basis. So for the full year, I think we can do 70% gross margins, and our goal is to maintain our operating margins within our long-term target and the low end of that account 42% to 45%. So that's kind of some guardrails we think about as you're modeling out next year and what would be a down year for revenue.

對於今年來說，這並不是一個瘋狂的水平。我想如果你退後一步看看我們試圖在我們的控制範圍內管理什麼。我們談到過去 12 個月的毛利率保持在 70%。因此，就全年而言，我認為我們可以實現 70% 的毛利率，我們的目標是將我們的營業利潤率維持在長期目標範圍內，即 42% 至 45% 的低端。因此，這就是我們在預測明年以及收入下降的一年時會考慮的一些護欄。

Our next question comes from Chris Danely with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的克里斯·丹利 (Chris Danely)。

Congrats Prashanth on retirement. I wish I was joining you. I just had a question on the Auto end market. So you're saying that you expect it to do, I guess, better relatively than Industrial. Given how much inventory has been built there, and the upcoming UAW strike, do you think it's possible that Auto could get materially worse? Are you baking that into any kind of forecast? And then are you I guess, Auto supply chain customers talking about a potential strike and the impact on their inventory.

祝賀普拉尚斯退休。我希望我能加入你們。我剛剛有一個關於汽車終端市場的問題。所以你是說你期望它的表現，我猜，相對於工業更好。考慮到那裡已經建立了多少庫存，以及即將到來的聯合汽車工人聯合會罷工，您認為汽車行業是否有可能變得更糟？您是否將其納入任何類型的預測中？然後，我想，汽車供應鏈客戶正在談論潛在的罷工及其對庫存的影響。

Yes. All right. So thank you for the question. Chris, I think we're going to see you in a couple of weeks in New York. So on Auto, I guess some context first, we've grown for 12 consecutive quarters year-over-year. And including the fourth quarter, we're going to be up again. We said in the prepared comments that the lead times and the confidence supply is driving some of that acceleration in inventory adjustments and that's happening across all our markets. When we look specifically at Auto in the quarter and our growth rates there, the same strong growers, BMS, GMSL, A2B. They grew in the third quarter and both on a sequential basis and year-over-year. We expect kind of the similar strength from them into the fourth quarter.

是的。好的。謝謝你的提問。克里斯，我想幾週後我們就會在紐約見到你。因此，在汽車領域，我想先了解一些背景情況，我們已經連續 12 個季度實現同比增長。包括第四季度，我們都會再次崛起。我們在準備好的評論中表示，交貨時間和信心供應正在推動庫存調整的加速，而這種情況正在我們所有的市場中發生。當我們專門關注本季度的汽車行業及其增長率時，我們發現同樣強勁的增長者：BMS、GMSL、A2B。它們在第三季度環比和同比均有所增長。我們預計他們在第四季度將保持類似的實力。

So I think that our outlook is, as Vince said, is really end market units driven and we have not yet put in a number nor have we received indicators from our supply chain partners that we should be making adjustments based on any disruption that could come from the negotiations that are going on right now.

因此，我認為，正如文斯所說，我們的前景實際上是由終端市場單位驅動的，我們尚未提供數字，也沒有收到供應鏈合作夥伴的指示，表明我們應該根據可能發生的任何干擾進行調整從目前正在進行的談判來看。

Yes. I think one other thing, Chris, to note is that, in general, there's more and more silicon value in cars every year, and that's true of ADI. We've got the switch to the electrification, which is, again, in pretty much the early stages of adoption. So there are some great growth drivers that will somewhat transcend the malaise, the economic malaise. But we still expect, overall, as Prashanth said, we've got many growth drivers that Automotive will continue to be the one of the better growth areas for ADI for the foreseeable future.

是的。克里斯，我認為另一件事需要注意的是，總的來說，汽車中的矽價值每年都在增加，ADI 也是如此。我們已經轉向電氣化，這又幾乎處於採用的早期階段。因此，有一些巨大的增長動力將在某種程度上超越經濟的萎靡不振。但總體而言，正如 Prashanth 所說，我們仍然預計，我們有許多增長動力，在可預見的未來，汽車將繼續成為 ADI 增長較好的領域之一。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Sorry about that. So in Q3, disti was down, was about 62% of sales. It was down about 4.5% sequentially. So that's less than the total business. Shipments to our direct customers came down around 8%. So maybe you guys can just discuss the shipments and excess inventory dynamics around both for Q3 and here in Q4. Is the excess inventory situation a little bit more pronounced than direct customers? And maybe similar to your disti customers where you have systems in place to monitor sell-through? Like how do you monitor the levels of sell-through and inventories at your direct customers?

對於那個很抱歉。因此，在第三季度，分銷業務有所下降，約佔銷售額的 62%。環比下降約 4.5%。所以這少於總業務。對我們直接客戶的發貨量下降了約 8%。因此，也許你們可以討論第三季度和第四季度的出貨量和過剩庫存動態。庫存過剩的情況是不是比直接客戶更明顯一點？也許類似於您的分銷客戶，您有系統來監控銷售情況？例如，您如何監控直接客戶的銷售量和庫存水平？

Yes. Great. Okay. So let's do a couple of pieces on that. First, as a reminder, for a distribution company to do business with ADI, you have to give us your sell-through data on a weekly basis in arrears via electronic data feed. So we know exactly where our distribution guys are doing business, and we use that to run the company, as Vince always said, we run it on a POS basis. We said in the third sorry, in the second quarter earnings call, we said that we had gotten a little ahead of ourselves in China and that we intended to undership China. In the third quarter, we have done that. We are now intending to undership all markets generally in the fourth quarter to continue to bring the channel level inventories down.

是的。偉大的。好的。那麼讓我們對此做一些工作。首先，提醒一下，對於與 ADI 開展業務的分銷公司，您必須通過電子數據饋送每周向我們提供您的銷售數據。因此，我們確切地知道我們的分銷人員在哪裡開展業務，我們用它來運營公司，正如 Vince 常說的那樣，我們在 POS 基礎上運營公司。我們在第三次抱歉中表示，在第二季度的財報電話會議上，我們說我們在中國有點超前了，我們打算在中國市場佔據主導地位。在第三季度，我們做到了這一點。我們現在打算在第四季度普遍減少所有市場的出貨量，以繼續降低渠道庫存。

We have limited direct data visibility into our end customers inventory levels, except for those customers where we have consignment. But what we do have is the which you don't have access to is we can see the sales data of our products into our broad set of (inaudible) external customers and their corresponding revenue growth. And our team builds correlation data based on that to tell us how we're doing versus how their growth is. And that's what Vince was referring to that we have seen that their growth is accelerating versus our growth to them, which is why we have confidence that we are undershipping their end market demand, allowing them to pull inventory levels down, which, of course, it is safe to do so because now we can get our products to them within 13 weeks.

除了我們寄售的客戶外，我們對最終客戶庫存水平的直接數據可見性有限。但我們所擁有的是您無法訪問的，我們可以看到我們產品在我們廣泛的（聽不清）外部客戶中的銷售數據及其相應的收入增長。我們的團隊在此基礎上構建相關數據，以告訴我們我們的表現如何以及他們的增長情況。這就是文斯所說的，我們看到他們的增長速度比我們對他們的增長速度要快，這就是為什麼我們有信心我們沒有滿足他們的終端市場需求，從而使他們能夠降低庫存水平，當然，這樣做是安全的，因為現在我們可以在13 週內將我們的產品送到他們手中。

Yes. Prashanth that's a great point you made the less lead times is the best indicator of what our customers' inventory levels need to be. if a customer can get product quick, they need to hold a little less inventory. So our lead time is improving is helping us give us better visibility into what the customers need to hold and what they're holding.

是的。 Prashanth，您提出的一個很好的觀點是，較短的交貨時間是我們客戶庫存水平需要的最佳指標。如果客戶可以快速獲得產品，他們就需要減少庫存。因此，我們的交貨時間正在改善，這有助於我們更好地了解客戶需要持有什麼以及他們正在持有什麼。

Yes. I think Prashanth said earlier, 85% of our total portfolio now is available in less than 13 weeks. Big, big change since this time last year.

是的。我想 Prashanth 之前說過，我們總投資組合的 85% 現在在不到 13 週的時間內可用。自去年這個時候以來發生了很大很大的變化。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had 2 quick ones, if I may. One on pricing. Vince, you mentioned that in the near term, it's more of a unit correction as opposed to a correction in pricing, which makes sense. To the extent foundry pricing improves into 2024, would you be in a position to share that sort of cost down, if you will, with customers the same way you've sort of passed on higher costs over the past couple of years?

如果可以的話，我有兩個快速的。一是關於定價。文斯，您提到，在短期內，這更多的是單位修正，而不是定價修正，這是有道理的。如果代工定價在 2024 年有所改善，如果願意的話，您是否能夠與客戶分享這種成本下降，就像您在過去幾年中轉嫁更高的成本一樣？

And then a second quick one for Prashanth. DOI 179, I think that's up, call it, 50, 60 days vis-a-vis pre-pandemic. How should we think about the new normal going forward? And how quickly can you get there?

然後是普拉山斯的第二個快速的。 DOI 179，我認為已經到了，可以稱之為，與大流行前相比，50、60 天。我們應該如何看待未來的新常態？你能多快到達那裡？

Sure. Let me answer the pricing piece first, Toshiya. There are really 2 parts to it. One is we have 75,000 product SKUs that are established and are the bedrock of the franchise of the ADI. They're very sticky. The product life cycles tend to be very, very strong. And they tend to be once they're designed and fairly price insensitive. And we're actually -- we're also, by the way, increasing the value of our products each year. We're managing the portfolio in terms of pricing. We're looking for elasticity, which is just a normal part of portfolio management. But -- we're also adding more value to the products that we're introducing to customers, the new products.

當然。讓我先回答定價問題，Toshiya。它實際上有兩個部分。一是我們擁有 75,000 個已建立的產品 SKU，它們是 ADI 特許經營權的基石。它們非常粘。產品生命週期往往非常非常長。而且它們往往一經設計就對價格相當不敏感。事實上，順便說一下，我們的產品價值每年都在增加。我們在定價方面管理投資組合。我們正在尋找彈性，這只是投資組合管理的正常部分。但是，我們還為我們向客戶推出的新產品增加了更多價值。

I think the benefit of lower costs will come at the design-in phase if we do get lower cost, which from our third-party which, by the way, I think, is very, very unlikely. So I think the message is pricing is stable and very, very franchise is very durable.

我認為，如果我們確實從我們的第三方獲得了更低的成本，那麼在設計階段就會帶來更低成本的好處，順便說一句，我認為這是非常非常不可能的。所以我認為傳達的信息是定價是穩定的，而且特許經營權非常非常持久。

And I'll do the DOI one very quickly here, Toshi. So 179 days, balance sheet inventory grew call it, low single digits sequentially on a dollar basis. We have high confidence that we will exit Q1, taking out at least $100 million of inventory value. and the production plans are being oriented to allow us to do that. The days target, we have a model, but we've agreed that it is appropriate for the next CFO really to bless that model because they're going to own that and they need to kind of go through that map. So I can tell you that it's not going to be at 180 days, but I don't think we get back to 120 days. So we'll come back to you at some point on what that looks like.

Toshi，我會在這裡很快完成 DOI。 179 天以來，資產負債表庫存增長，按美元計算連續低個位數增長。我們非常有信心退出第一季度，並減少至少 1 億美元的庫存價值。生產計劃的目的是讓我們能夠做到這一點。目標是，我們有一個模型，但我們一致認為，下一任首席財務官真正祝福該模型是合適的，因為他們將擁有該模型，並且需要仔細研究該地圖。所以我可以告訴你，不會是 180 天，但我認為我們不會回到 120 天。因此，我們會在某個時候回复您，了解具體情況。

Our last question comes from Josh Buchalter with TD Cowen.

我們的最後一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Josh Buchalter。

And Prashanth, congratulations on the great run. You mentioned a few times under shipping in the print and the guidance. I was hoping you could maybe quantify the extent or maybe provide any sort of guidance to the amount that you're under shipping? And then given it sounds like seasonal fiscal first quarter isn't off the table. Does that mean we kind of expect you could be shipping to end demand exiting the October quarter?

Prashanth，祝賀您的出色表現。您在印刷品和指南中多次提到運輸。我希望您可以量化範圍，或者為您運輸的金額提供任何形式的指導？然後考慮到季節性第一季度的財政狀況似乎並非不可能。這是否意味著我們預計您可以在 10 月季度結束後發貨以滿足終端需求？

I'll let Mike take the second part of that question because I'm not sure I fully comprehended it. But on the first one, so we have our business that goes through the channel and the business that goes direct. Business through the channel, we have the demand forecast from our distribution guys, and we are under shipping into the channel to help them pull inventory levels in the channel down. We said that in the second quarter earnings call that we were going to do that for China. This quarter, we're going to do it across the globe for all distis.

我會讓邁克回答這個問題的第二部分，因為我不確定我是否完全理解了它。但在第一個方面，我們有通過渠道的業務和直接進行的業務。通過渠道開展業務，我們得到了分銷人員的需求預測，並且我們正在向渠道發貨，以幫助他們降低渠道中的庫存水平。我們在第二季度財報電話會議上表示，我們將為中國做到這一點。本季度，我們將在全球範圍內為所有地區開展這項工作。

Your second question on how to think about the under shipment into end demand that Vince referenced to. All I can really do is refer back to sort of the data analysis that we do. There's not a real way to aggregate that, except to say that we have a relatively good correlation between our end customers revenue growth and our growth to those end customers on an individual basis and when we look at how they grew in third quarter versus our shipments to them and how they're forecasting or you guys or consensus forecasting their fourth quarter growth versus our shipments to them, we know that we're going to be helping them to pull inventory levels down, which again makes tremendous sense because lead times have improved. And Mike, I didn't...

你的第二個問題是如何考慮文斯提到的最終需求不足的運輸。我真正能做的就是回顧一下我們所做的數據分析。沒有一種真正的方法可以匯總這一點，除了說我們的最終客戶收入增長和我們對這些最終客戶的增長之間存在相對較好的相關性，以及當我們查看他們在第三季度與我們的出貨量的增長情況時對於他們以及他們如何預測，或者你們或大家一致預測他們第四季度的增長與我們向他們發貨的情況相比，我們知道我們將幫助他們降低庫存水平，這又非常有意義，因為交貨時間已經改善了。還有邁克，我沒有...

Sure. on the first -- it's good question. If you look at the first quarter, we always typically undership consumption in the first quarter, why? You see a lot of our customers reduce their working capital going into end of the year-end. So the down 5% in our -- seeing the seasonal first quarter is below consumption. I think after that, you get back to kind of what Vince was saying you get coming back to demand and consumption, all kind of imbalance. And then it comes to a question of macro, what's happening in macro in our second quarter.

當然。關於第一個問題——這是個好問題。如果你看看第一季度，我們通常總是低於第一季度的消費，為什麼？您會看到我們的許多客戶在年底前減少了營運資金。因此，我們看到第一季度季節性下降 5% 低於消費。我認為在那之後，你會回到文斯所說的那樣，你會回到需求和消費，各種不平衡。然後談到宏觀問題，第二季度宏觀方面發生了什麼。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We once again will be on the road a lot this quarter. You'll find us in New York, Chicago, Florida, London and San Fran. Reach out to IR team to be notified when we are in your ZIP code. And with that, thanks for joining us and the interest in ADI.

謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。本季度我們將再次頻繁出差。您可以在紐約、芝加哥、佛羅里達、倫敦和舊金山找到我們。當我們到達您的郵政編碼時，請聯繫 IR 團隊以獲取通知。在此，感謝您加入我們以及對 ADI 的興趣。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 Analog Devices 電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。