亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices fourth quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call, which is being audio webcast here a telephone and over the web. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Analog Devices 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議，該電話會議正在透過電話和網路進行音訊網路直播。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I'd like to now introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Sir, the floor is yours.

現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁 Michael Lucarelli 先生。先生，地板是你的了。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter fiscal 2024 conference call. With me on the call today are ADI's CEO and Chair, Vince Roche; and ADI's CFO, Rich Puccio. For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and relating financial schedules at investor.analog.com.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2024 財年第四季電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 ADI 執行長兼董事長 Vince Roche；以及 ADI 財務長 Rich Puccio。對於那些錯過了該發布的人，您可以在 Investor.analog.com 上找到它以及相關的財務時間表。

On to the disclosures. The information we're about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, as further described in our earnings release and our parent reports and other materials filed with the SEC.

關於披露。我們即將討論的資訊包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，正如我們的收益報告、母公司報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他資料中進一步描述的那樣。

Actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking information as these statements reflect our expectations only as of this call. We undertake no obligation to update these statements except as required by law. References to gross margin, operating and nonoperating expenses, operating margin, tax rate, EPS, and free cash flow in our comments today will be on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes special items. When comparing the results to the historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior periods.

實際結果可能與前瞻性資訊有重大差異，因為這些陳述僅反映我們截至本次電話會議的預期。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。我們今天的評論中提及的毛利率、營業和非營業費用、營業利潤率、稅率、每股收益和自由現金流將基於非公認會計原則（Non-GAAP），其中不包括特殊項目。在將結果與歷史績效進行比較時，前期的特殊項目也被排除在外。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release. Please note, references to EPS are on a fully diluted basis.

這些非公認會計準則衡量指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量指標的對帳以及有關我們非公認會計準則衡量指標的其他資訊均包含在今天的收益發布中。請注意，所提及的每股收益是在完全稀釋的基礎上的。

And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Mr. Roche.

接下來，我會將其交給 ADI 執行長兼董事長 Roche 先生。

Thanks very much, Mike, and a very good morning to you all. So our fourth quarter results reflected the continued steady recovery from our second quarter cyclical bottom with revenue, operating margin, and earnings per share, all finishing above the midpoint of our outlook.

非常感謝，麥克，祝大家早安。因此，我們第四季的業績反映出我們從第二季週期性底部持續穩定復甦，營收、營業利潤率和每股盈餘都高於我們預期的中點。

For the full fiscal year, '24 revenue finished at $9.4 billion with earnings per share of $6.38. The headwinds we faced in fiscal '24, most notably pronounced post-pandemic inventory digestion and the challenging macro backdrop mutant demand recovery.

24 年整個財年的營收為 94 億美元，每股收益為 6.38 美元。我們在 24 財年面臨的阻力，最明顯的是疫情後的庫存消化和充滿挑戰的宏觀背景突變需求復甦。

Despite the external challenges, however, our business model and disciplined execution delivered an impressive 41% operating margin for the year and a free cash flow margin of 33%, up from 29% in fiscal '23. Importantly, we continued investing in key value generation and capture initiatives to better position ADI to solve our customers' most difficult challenges at the intelligent edge.

然而，儘管面臨外部挑戰，我們的業務模式和嚴格的執行力在本年度實現了令人印象深刻的 41% 營業利潤率和 33% 的自由現金流利潤率，高於 23 財年的 29%。重要的是，我們繼續投資關鍵價值生成並採取舉措，以更好地定位 ADI，以解決客戶在智慧邊緣面臨的最困難的挑戰。

In R&D, which is our first call on capital, we continue to strengthen our world-class analog foundation while extending the scope of our innovation capabilities with investments in digital, software, and AI. Those investments resulted in, for example, last month's launch of ADI's new CodeFusion Studio software development platform, creating a resource-rich hub and intuitive programming environment for embedded codevelopment in support of our analog mixed signal powered and digital franchise.

在研發方面，這是我們對資本的首要需求，我們持續加強我們世界級的模擬基礎，同時透過對數位、軟體和人工智慧的投資擴大我們的創新能力範圍。例如，這些投資導致 ADI 上個月推出了新的 CodeFusion Studio 軟體開發平台，為嵌入式協同開發創建了一個資源豐富的中心和直觀的程式設計環境，以支援我們的類比混合訊號驅動和數位特許經營。

To better secure the increasingly connected intelligent edge, we also launched the ADI Assure trusted Edge Security Architecture, which will enable cybersecurity capabilities on ADI products. The addition of new tech stack capabilities to our tremendous analog foundation enables us to deliver ever more sophisticated innovations for our customers.

為了更好地保護日益互聯的智慧邊緣，我們還推出了 ADI Assure 可信任邊緣安全架構，該架構將為 ADI 產品提供網路安全功能。在我們龐大的模擬基礎上添加新技術堆疊功能，使我們能夠為客戶提供更複雜的創新。

Our intense focus on R&D is reflected in the double-digit growth of our design win pipeline during fiscal '24. That growth was enhanced by momentum in our Maxim revenue synergies pipeline, across such areas as GMSL, health care, and data center power, putting us firmly on a path to achieving our goal of $1 billion in revenue synergies by 2027.

我們對研發的高度重視反映在我們 24 財年設計獲勝管道的兩位數成長。這一增長得益於我們在 GMSL、醫療保健和資料中心電源等領域的 Maxim 收入協同效應管道的勢頭，使我們堅定地走上實現 2027 年收入協同效應 10 億美元的目標的道路。

Now to accelerate pipeline growth and conversion, we continue to evolve our digital customer engagement platforms to support a greater range of technical expertise and customer needs. We also expanded our [country of] field engineering experts to provide world-class support and service to our global customer base.

現在，為了加速管道成長和轉換，我們繼續發展我們的數位客戶參與平台，以支援更廣泛的技術專業知識和客戶需求。我們也擴大了我們的現場工程專家[國家]，以便為我們的全球客戶群提供世界一流的支援和服務。

Our customers value our thought leadership, the breadth and depth of our cutting-edge technology stack, the strength and resilience of our supply chain, and our service and support integrity. And let me share a few examples with you now.

我們的客戶重視我們的思想領導、尖端技術堆疊的廣度和深度、供應鏈的實力和彈性，以及我們的服務和支援完整性。現在讓我來跟大家分享一些例子。

In Industry 4.0, semiconductor content as a percentage of CapEx investments continues to expand rapidly as factories integrate IT and OT to connect and software to find the factory floor. This is creating tremendous growth for ADI [sensor to] cloud automation solutions with a large number of customers leveraging our sensing, power control, and deterministic ethernet technologies.

在工業 4.0 中，隨著工廠整合 IT 和 OT 進行連接以及軟體找到工廠車間，半導體含量佔資本支出投資的百分比繼續快速增長。這為 ADI [感測器到]雲端自動化解決方案帶來了巨大的成長，大量客戶利用我們的感測、電源控制和確定性乙​​太網路技術。

On the factory floor, our intelligent motion and positioning solutions are being designed into robotic systems by several large customers, expanding our content per robot by 3 times. In our instrumentation and test business, ADI's cutting-edge analog, mixed signal, and power capabilities are the foundation for the leadership position we've established in the AI-related SoC and high-bandwidth memory test market where our content per tester stretches into the hundreds of thousands of dollars.

在工廠車間，我們的智慧運動和定位解決方案正被多家大客戶設計到機器人系統中，將每個機器人的內容擴展了 3 倍。在我們的儀器和測試業務中，ADI 的尖端模擬、混合訊號和電源功能是我們在AI 相關SoC 和高頻寬記憶體測試市場中建立領導地位的基礎，在該市場中，我們每個測試儀的內容延伸到數十萬美元。

Now looking ahead, we're developing additional mixed signal and digital capabilities to further reduce test time and power requirements, which we believe will result in more than 20% additional ADI content per tester.

現在展望未來，我們正在開發額外的混合訊號和數位功能，以進一步減少測試時間和功耗要求，我們相信這將為每個測試儀帶來超過 20% 的額外 ADI 內容。

Within the healthcare sector, our precision signal processing and real-time connectivity solutions are critical to the rapidly expanding surgical robotics market. And in the fast-growing continuous glucose monitoring space, we have won multiple opportunities across several customers. Our unique digitally enables analog front-end solutions increase the accuracy and power efficiency of centers and enable a better patient experience by extending battery life from days to weeks.

在醫療保健領域，我們的精密訊號處理和即時連接解決方案對於快速擴張的手術機器人市場至關重要。在快速成長的連續血糖監測領域，我們贏得了多個客戶的多個機會。我們獨特的數位化類比前端解決方案提高了中心的準確性和能源效率，並透過將電池壽命從幾天延長到幾週來提供更好的患者體驗。

Aerospace and defense has remained our most resilient industrial segment during this downturn with stellar design win pipeline growth. We expect revenue growth to accelerate to a double-digit level next year, due to increasing global defense budgets and the proliferation of space communication systems that rely on our higher-value integrated RF modules and subsystems.

在這次經濟低迷時期，航空航太和國防仍然是我們最具彈性的工業領域，憑藉著出色的設計贏得了管道的成長。由於全球國防預算的增加以及依賴我們更高價值整合式射頻模組和子系統的太空通訊系統的擴散，我們預計明年的營收成長將加速至兩位數水準。

Within automotive, the performance advantages of our battery management systems are driving substantial pipeline growth among OEMs. In addition, we're also seeing momentum for these solutions in electrical grid storage systems. These trends, combined with recent wins give us confidence that our BMS revenues should return to growth in fiscal '25 with meaningful contributions from our higher-value wired solution.

在汽車領域，我們的電池管理系統的性能優勢正在推動 OEM 的產品線大幅成長。此外，我們也看到這些解決方案在電網儲存系統中的發展勢頭。這些趨勢，加上最近的勝利，讓我們相信，我們的 BMS 收入將在 25 財年恢復成長，我們的高價值有線解決方案將做出有意義的貢獻。

The proliferation of higher content vehicles that use more power management, connectivity, and an increasing number of sensor platforms is expanding our content across all vehicle types, combustion engines, hybrids, and indeed full EVs. This trend drove our GMSL and A2B connectivity and functionally safe car franchises to new high watermarks in fiscal '24 and with a record design win pipeline, we expect this growth to persist.

使用更多電源管理、連接性和越來越多的感測器平台的更高內容車輛的激增正在將我們的內容擴展到所有車輛類型、內燃機、混合動力汽車甚至全電動汽車。這一趨勢推動我們的 GMSL 和 A2B 連接性以及功能安全汽車特許經營權在 24 財年達到新的高水位，並且憑藉創紀錄的設計獲勝管道，我們預計這種增長將持續下去。

Notably, we added to our portfolio of connectivity solutions by launching our ethernet to Edge Bus solution, or E2B, which is an enabler of the software-defined vehicle vision. And out of the gate, we have design wins with several major OEMs, including BMW.

值得注意的是，我們透過推出乙太網路到邊緣匯流排解決方案（E2B）來豐富我們的連接解決方案組合，這是軟體定義車輛願景的推動者。一開始，我們就贏得了包括寶馬在內的幾家主要原始設備製造商的設計。

In communications, we've seen a positive inflection in the wireline market and expect that growth to continue in FY25 and beyond. Our confidence is based on significant new wins, including a high-precision controller for the optical module and the high-performance compute leaders AI systems and our next-gen power solutions, which will begin shipping later in '25. We're also experiencing tremendous demand across leading data center customers for our new innovative hot swap solution, which significantly extends power and control capabilities for AI-based servers.

在通訊領域，我們看到有線市場出現了積極的變化，並預計這種增長將在 2025 財年及以後持續下去。我們的信心基於重大的新勝利，包括光學模組的高精度控制器和高效能運算領先的人工智慧系統以及我們的下一代電源解決方案，這些解決方案將於 25 年稍後開始發貨。我們也遇到了領先資料中心客戶對我們新型創新熱插拔解決方案的巨大需求，該解決方案顯著擴展了基於人工智慧的伺服器的電源和控制功能。

In consumer, new wins coming to market are driving strong growth. We expect this momentum to continue in the years ahead given new wins across power, audio, optical, and touch in portable applications at multiple key customers. We've also seen growth in wearables. For example, our VSM platform superior accuracy at lower power is becoming ever more critical for customers seeking to differentiate by capturing and processing more biomarkers.

在消費領域，新產品上市正在推動強勁成長。鑑於多個主要客戶在便攜式應用中的電源、音訊、光學和觸控方面取得了新的勝利，我們預計這一勢頭將在未來幾年持續下去。我們也看到穿戴式裝置的成長。例如，對於尋求透過捕捉和處理更多生物標記來實現差異化的客戶來說，我們的 VSM 平台在較低功耗下的卓越準確性變得越來越重要。

We've seen design momentum accelerate and content opportunities to expand at wearable market leaders as well as in disruptors bringing miniaturized form factors to markets. In wearable acoustic systems, our combination of ultra-low power and neuroprocessing with application-specific audio processing algorithms, is enabling next-generation noise cancellation and hearing augmentation. We're leveraging these technology innovations in several B2B markets in addition.

我們看到了可穿戴市場領導者以及將微型外形尺寸引入市場的顛覆者的設計勢頭加速和內容擴展的機會。在穿戴式聲學系統中，我們將超低功耗和神經處理與特定於應用的音訊處理演算法相結合，正在實現下一代噪音消除和聽力增強。此外，我們也在多個 B2B 市場中利用這些技術創新。

Turning now to manufacturing. We've invested $2.7 billion in CapEx since acquiring Maxim to increase our capacity and enhance resiliency. We also expanded our foundry partnership with TSMC earlier this year to secure additional 300-millimeter fine-pitch technology capacity at their Japan setup.

現在轉向製造業。自收購 Maxim 以來，我們已在資本支出上投資了 27 億美元，以提高我們的產能並增強彈性。今年早些時候，我們還擴大了與台積電的代工合作夥伴關係，以確保其日本工廠擁有額外的 300 毫米細間距技術產能。

These investments enable a more flexible hybrid manufacturing model, further insulating our supply from regional shocks and increasing our swing capacity to around 70% of revenue in the coming years. This unique ability helps us to capture the upside in strong demand backdrops and better protect our gross margins during more challenging times.

這些投資實現了更靈活的混合製造模式，進一步使我們的供應免受區域衝擊的影響，並將我們的產能在未來幾年增加到收入的 70% 左右。這種獨特的能力幫助我們在強勁的需求背景下抓住優勢，並在更具挑戰性的時期更好地保護我們的毛利率。

So in closing, I'm very proud of how ADI has managed through one of the worst inventory digestion cycles our industry has ever seen. While the macro backdrop presents challenges, I'm confident in our continued recovery in fiscal '25. And with that, now I'll pass it over to Rich.

最後，我對 ADI 如何度過我們行業有史以來最糟糕的庫存消化週期之一感到非常自豪。儘管宏觀背景帶來挑戰，但我對 25 財年的持續復甦充滿信心。現在我將把它交給里奇。

Thank you, Vince, and let me add my welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. We'll start with a brief recap of fiscal '24 results. Revenue of more than $9.4 billion, down from a record fiscal '23 driven by broad-based inventory digestion and sluggish end demand. Gross margin of 67.9% reflects lower revenue, factory utilization, and mix headwinds. Declines in revenue and gross margins were partially offset by lower operating expenses, which resulted in an operating margin of 40.9% and EPS of $6.38.

謝謝你，文斯，讓我對我們第四季財報電話會議表示歡迎。我們先簡單回顧一下 24 財年的表現。由於廣泛的庫存消化和終端需求低迷，收入超過 94 億美元，低於 23 財年創紀錄的收入。 67.9% 的毛利率反映了較低的收入、工廠利用率和混合阻力。營業費用下降部分抵消了收入和毛利率的下降，營業利潤率為 40.9%，每股收益為 6.38 美元。

Moving to fourth quarter results, revenue of $2.44 billion came in above the midpoint of our outlook for a 6% sequential increase and a 10% decline year-over-year. Industrial represented 44% of our fourth quarter revenue, finishing up 2% sequentially and down 21% year-over-year. Continued strength in AI-related test, aerospace, and defense and a return to sequential growth in automation more than offset slower end demand driven by a weaker macro backdrop.

來看第四季的業績，營收為 24.4 億美元，高於我們預期的環比成長 6%、年減 10% 的中點。工業佔第四季營收的 44%，季增 2%，年減 21%。人工智慧相關測試、航空航太和國防領域的持續強勁以及自動化領域恢復連續成長，足以抵消宏觀背景疲軟導致的終端需求放緩。

For the full year, industrial decreased 35% from a record 2023 with every major application declining double digits, except aerospace and defense, which significantly outperformed the rest of industrial. Automotive represented 29% of quarterly revenue, finishing up 4% sequentially and down 2% year-over-year.

全年工業應用較創紀錄的 2023 年下降了 35%，除航空航太和國防外，所有主要應用均出現兩位數下降，航空航太和國防的表現明顯優於其他工業應用。汽車業務佔季度營收的 29%，季增 4%，年減 2%。

This was notably better than our original expectation due to steadily improving demand from China throughout the quarter. For the year, automotive declined 2% from a record fiscal '23 as double-digit growth across our functionally safe power and leading A2B and GMSL connectivity franchises were offset by broad-based inventory digestion and production headwinds.

由於整個季度中國的需求穩定成長，這明顯好於我們最初的預期。今年，汽車業務較 23 財年創紀錄的業績下降了 2%，原因是我們的功能安全電源以及領先的 A2B 和 GMSL 連接專營權的兩位數增長被廣泛的庫存消化和生產不利因素所抵消。

Communications represented 11% of our quarterly revenue, finishing up 4% sequentially and down 18% year-over-year. Stronger demand from data center customers for our optical solutions drove low double-digit sequential growth in our wireline business, which was more than offset by the decline -- which more than offset the decline in wireless.

通訊業務占我們季度營收的 11%，季增 4%，年減 18%。數據中

For the year, communications decreased 33%, and similar to the fourth quarter, we saw relative outperformance in our wireline business over wireless. And lastly, consumer represented 16% of quarterly revenue, finishing up 22% sequentially and 31% year-over-year, driven by higher share in wearables, premium handsets, and gaming applications. For the year, consumer decreased just 1% with double-digit growth in portable applications, balancing double-digit declines in our prosumer business, which is more industrial-like in nature.

今年，通訊業務下降了 33%，與第四季類似，我們的有線業務表現相對優於無線業務。最後，受穿戴式裝置、高階手機和遊戲應用程式份額增加的推動，消費者佔季度收入的 16%，環比成長 22%，較去年同期成長 31%。今年，消費類業務僅下降了 1%，而便攜式應用實現了兩位數成長，平衡了我們的產消者業務（本質上更類似於工業）的兩位數下降。

Now on to the rest of the P&L. Fourth quarter gross margin was 67.9%, flat sequentially as product mix headwinds offset modestly higher utilization rates. OpEx in the quarter was $655 million, up approximately $35 million sequentially, driven primarily by merit increases, which resulted in an operating margin of 41.1%. Non-operating expenses finished at $55 million and the tax rate for the quarter was 12.1%. All told, EPS was $1.67, which finished above the midpoint of our outlook.

現在來看看損益表的其餘部分。第四季毛利率為 67.9%，與上一季持平，因為產品組合的不利因素抵消了利用率的小幅上升。本季的營運支出為 6.55 億美元，比上一季增加約 3,500 萬美元，主要是由於業績成長所致，營運利潤率為 41.1%。非營業費用最終為 5,500 萬美元，季度稅率為 12.1%。總而言之，每股收益為 1.67 美元，高於我們預期的中點。

Despite a tough year, we took decisive action to strengthen our financial position, and I'd like to call out a few results from our balance sheet and cash flow statement. We ended the quarter with approximately $2.4 billion in cash and short-term investments and a net leverage ratio of 1.2. Inventory finished approximately $20 million higher than the third quarter, while days of inventory decreased 11 to 167. Channel inventory finished slightly below the low end of our 7- to 8-week target as we continue to prudently manage our supply.

儘管經歷了艱難的一年，我們還是採取了果斷行動來加強我們的財務狀況，我想介紹一下我們的資產負債表和現金流量表中的一些結果。截至本季末，我們擁有約 24 億美元的現金和短期投資，淨槓桿為 1.2。庫存比第三季高出約 2,000 萬美元，而庫存天數減少 11 天至 167 天。

Operating cash flow for the quarter was more than $1 billion and more than $3.8 billion for fiscal '24. CapEx was $165 million for the quarter and $730 million for the year resulting in fiscal '24 free cash flow of more than $3.1 billion or 33% of revenue. During the year, we returned $2.4 billion to shareholders via $1.8 billion in dividends and $600 million in repurchases.

該季度的營運現金流超過 10 億美元，24 財年的營運現金流超過 38 億美元。該季度的資本支出為 1.65 億美元，全年的資本支出為 7.3 億美元，導致 24 財年的自由現金流超過 31 億美元，佔營收的 33%。年內，我們透過 18 億美元的股利和 6 億美元的回購向股東返還 24 億美元。

Now moving on to guidance for the first quarter. Revenue is expected to be $2.35 billion, plus or minus $100 million. Notably, this implies year-over-year growth when compared to a normalized 13-week first quarter of fiscal '24, a good indication that we're past the trough and in gradual recovery. We expect sell-through to be roughly equal to settlement in this quarter. At the midpoint, we are expecting a seasonal decline on a sequential basis as noted last quarter.

現在轉向第一季的指引。預計營收為 23.5 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。值得注意的是，這意味著與 24 財年第一季正常化的 13 週相比出現了同比增長，這很好地表明我們已經度過了低谷並正在逐步復甦。我們預計本季的銷售量將大致等於結算量。在中點，我們預計如上季所述，將出現季節性環比下降。

Industrial, automotive, and communications are each expected to decline by low single digits with consumer down around 15%. Operating margin is expected to be approximately 40%, plus or minus 100 basis points. Our tax rate is expected to be 12% to 14%. And based on these inputs, EPS is expected to be $1.53 plus or minus $0.10.

工業、汽車和通訊產業預計將出現低個位數下降，其中消費者下降約 15%。營業利潤率預計約 40%，上下浮動 100 個基點。我們的稅率預計為12%至14%。根據這些投入，每股收益預計為 1.53 美元上下 0.10 美元。

I'll conclude by noting a few items as we begin the new fiscal year. As Vince mentioned, we made great progress building a more agile and resilient hybrid manufacturing model. As such, we expect our CapEx spend will moderate back to our long-term model of 4% to 6% of revenue in fiscal 2025. We expect this normalized CapEx level and planned receipt of investment tax credits tied to both the US and European chipsets will provide tailwinds to fiscal '25's free cash flow.

最後，在我們開始新的財政年度時，我將指出一些事項。正如文斯所提到的，我們在建立更敏捷、更具彈性的混合製造模型方面取得了巨大進展。因此，我們預計我們的資本支出將在2025 財年回落至佔收入4% 至6% 的長期模式。免將為 25 財年的自由現金流提供動力。

Importantly, while we have delivered on our commitment to return 100% free cash flow since our Maxim acquisition, fiscal '24's return was lower due to our decision to increase balance sheet cash during this period of macroeconomic uncertainty, and to help us extinguish $400 million of debt coming due in fiscal '25. That said, investors can expect us to revert to our targeted return of 100% free cash flow in fiscal '25.

重要的是，雖然自收購Maxim 以來我們已經兌現了返回100% 自由現金流的承諾，但由於我們決定在宏觀經濟不確定時期增加資產負債表現金並幫助我們消除4 億美元資金，因此24 財年的回報較低25 財年到期的債務。也就是說，投資者可以預期我們將在 25 財年恢復 100% 自由現金流的目標回報。

I'll now go back to Mike for Q&A.

我現在將回到麥克那裡進行問答。

Thanks, Rich. Let's get to the Q&A session. We ask that you limit yourself to one question in order to allow for additional participants on the call this morning. If you have a follow-up question, please requeue. We'll take any questions and time allows. With that first question, please.

謝謝，里奇。讓我們進入問答環節。我們要求您只回答一個問題，以便今天早上的電話會議中有更多參與者。如果您有後續問題，請重新排隊。在時間允許的情況下，我們會回答任何問題。請回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Chris Danely, Citi.

克里斯丹利，花旗銀行。

Just a little color on the auto strength. Can you talk about how big China is as a percent of your auto business? And then within that, how much of the strength was from, say, EV versus ICE or all these EV start-ups that we're hearing about from China?

只是汽車強度上的一點顏色。您能談談中國在您的汽車業務中所佔的比例嗎？然後，其中有多少力量來自於電動車與 ICE 或我們從中國聽到的所有這些電動車新創公司？

So I'll give you a little bit of the perspective, Chris, on the auto in near term. So on the last call, we had expected the sequential decline in Q4 given the drop we talked about in bookings during Q3 and adjustment to production from multiple of our OEMs. However, toward the end of Q3, bookings started to improve and that continued throughout our Q4 with stronger demand in China, reflecting EV volume growth, share gains, and content growth.

克里斯，我將向您介紹一下近期對汽車的一些看法。因此，在上次電話會議中，鑑於我們談到第三季的預訂量下降以及我們多個原始設備製造商的生產調整，我們預計第四季度將出現環比下降。然而，在第三季末，預訂量開始改善，隨著中國需求的強勁，預訂量在整個第四季度持續改善，反映出電動車銷售成長、份額成長和內容成長。

As for the other geos, we saw broad weakness but upside in the US, which returned to sequential growth, driven mainly by our BMS and wireless BMS portfolio. Secular demand for ADAS and next-gen infotainment continues to drive strength globally for our functionally safe power, audio, and video connectivity solutions.

至於其他地區，我們看到美國普遍疲軟但有上升空間，主要受到我們的 BMS 和無線 BMS 產品組合的推動，美國恢復了環比增長。對 ADAS 和下一代資訊娛樂系統的長期需求繼續推動全球功能安全電源、音訊和視訊連接解決方案的發展。

Content and share growth in these areas have helped offset broad inventory headwinds, resulting in a shallower correction in other end markets. I'd also note that while BMS is still facing inventory headwinds broadly, we saw a strong uptick in China, reflecting the expanded share we talked about on our Q2 call, compounded by volume growth in the region.

這些領域的內容和份額成長幫助抵消了廣泛的庫存阻力，導致其他終端市場的調整幅度較小。我還想指出的是，儘管百時美施貴寶仍普遍面臨庫存逆風，但我們看到中國市場的強勁增長，反映出我們在第二季度電話會議上談到的份額擴大，加上該地區銷量的增長。

BMS also improved in the US, including growth for our higher content wireless solutions which is now 10% of total BMS. And as Vince mentioned, design win activity was strong in 2024, giving us confidence that BMS will return to growth in fiscal year '25.

美國的 BMS 也有所改善，包括我們更高內容的無線解決方案的成長，目前佔 BMS 總量的 10%。正如 Vince 所提到的，2024 年的設計獲勝活動很強勁，這讓我們有信心 BMS 將在 25 財年恢復成長。

A little more color, Chris, what Rich has just said. So we've got a really high-performance portfolio. We've got many, many different SKUs, if you like, in that portfolio. And we're playing the high-performance game with the big players in China for Americas. So that's the state of the business there.

克里斯，再多一點色彩，里奇剛剛說過的話。因此，我們擁有真正高性能的產品組合。如果你願意的話，我們的產品組合中有很多很多不同的 SKU。我們正在與中國的美洲大玩家一起玩高效能遊戲。這就是那裡的業務狀況。

And then some comments on the US, China kind of relative, what's the mix of China. Our China business looks a lot like ADI Enterprise, where industrial and automotive are the two biggest percent of our revenue in China. They'll make about 80% of the China business. Comms in the teens and consumers below 5%.

然後是一些關於美國、中國的相對的評論，中國的組合是什麼。我們的中國業務看起來很像 ADI Enterprise，工業和汽車業務是我們在中國收入中最大的兩個部分。他們將獲得大約80%的中國業務。青少年和消費者的傳播率低於 5%。

CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

CJ 繆斯、坎托·費茲傑拉。

You talked about a number of company-specific drivers that should allow you to outperform in calendar '25. So I was hoping you could kind of use that as a backdrop and then maybe layer in kind of your thoughts on how the cycle will kind of emerge from today's trough? And what your kind of thoughts are in terms of pushing business through '25 and '26?

您談到了一些公司特定的驅動因素，這些驅動因素應該可以讓您在 25 年曆中表現出色。所以我希望你能以此為背景，然後也許可以談談你對這個週期將如何從今天的低谷中出現的想法？您對推動「25」和「26」業務發展有何想法？

Yes. Thanks, CJ. So yes, obviously, we've already stated our first quarter will be down. So we expect to start getting back to a positive growth trajectory in the second quarter. I think during '25, if I were to kind of rank the market recovery, I think it will be led by industrial. We have very healthy customer inventories. The channel is below seven weeks, and that's a big part of the supply chain into the industrial sector.

是的。謝謝，CJ。所以，是的，顯然，我們已經表示第一季的業績將會下降。因此，我們預計第二季將開始恢復正成長軌跡。我認為在 25 年期間，如果我要對市場復甦進行排序，我認為它將由工業主導。我們擁有非常健康的客戶庫存。該管道不到七週，這是進入工業部門的供應鏈的重要組成部分。

You couple that with the green shoots that we've mentioned already in areas like AI tests and aerospace and defense, which I called out in the script. So I think the compare is easier overall. And as a result, our food industrial, given the signings we see, will recover briskly in '25.

你將其與我們已經提到的人工智慧測試、航空航天和國防等領域的萌芽結合起來，我在劇本中提到了這些領域。所以我認為整體上比較比較容易。因此，鑑於我們看到的簽約，我們的食品工業將在 25 年迅速復甦。

I think in consumer, we have a much more diversified business than we've ever had. We've better portfolio than we've ever had. Inventory is normalized. And we're already seeing the benefits. We saw it in our 4Q results -- 3Q and 4Q results, the strength of our consumer business. I think next is the comms business, it declined by over 30% in 2024. And I think that was really an inventory digestion issue.

我認為在消費者領域，我們的業務比以往更加多元化。我們擁有比以往任何時候都更好的投資組合。庫存正常化。我們已經看到了好處。我們在第四季的業績中看到了這一點——第三季和第四季的業績，也就是我們消費者業務的實力。我認為接下來是通訊業務，它在 2024 年下降了 30% 以上。

So we feel at this point that we're through the worst of the supply normalization. And as we talked about in the scripts, we're beginning to see steady demand improvement, particularly in wireline, driven by the build-out of these new externalized intelligence systems and the AI infrastructure. So we're not seeing much on the wireless side. We've -- I think at a low point in wireless during '24. So I think it will all depend on carrier CapEx investments in 5G moving ahead.

因此，我們認為目前我們正在經歷供應正常化最糟糕的時期。正如我們在腳本中討論的那樣，我們開始看到需求的穩定改善，特別是在有線領域，這是由這些新的外部化智慧系統和人工智慧基礎設施的建構所推動的。所以我們在無線方面並沒有看到太多。我認為我們在 24 年無線業務處於低點。因此，我認為這完全取決於營運商在 5G 方面的資本支出投資的進展。

Last but not least, the automotive sector. We expect to see continued momentum in areas of function, we said, color, the connectivity things that I spoke about. And essentially, we expect globally to be driving share and penetration across all the different types of platforms.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是汽車產業。我們期望在功能領域看到持續的勢頭，我們說，顏色，我談到的連接性事物。從本質上講，我們期望在全球範圍內推動所有不同類型平台的份額和滲透率。

So we've had a tough year in '24 and BMS '25, we expect to see that get back to a better shape, get back to a growth pattern. And given that auto was down just 2% in 2024, it's a tough compare moving ahead. But overall, we feel that we'll be on a solid road path there as well. So that's the ranking, CJ. It's a long answer to a simple question.

因此，我們在 24 年和 BMS 25 年度過了艱難的一年，我們預計會恢復到更好的狀態，恢復成長模式。鑑於 2024 年汽車銷量僅下降 2%，因此未來的比較非常困難。但總的來說，我們認為我們也將走上一條堅實的道路。這就是排名，CJ。這是對一個簡單問題的很長的回答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya，美國銀行證券公司。

My question is on Q4 industrial and then how it sort of shapes fiscal '25. I think for Q4, industrial, if I'm not mistaken, you had expected still to grow high single digit. I think they went up only modestly. And then you're guiding Q1 industrial down again sequentially. So, Vince, my question is industrial really out of the woods, what helps it grow above seasonal?

我的問題是關於第四季的工業，以及它如何影響 25 財年。我認為，對於第四季度的工業，如果我沒有記錯的話，您預計仍將成長高個位數。我認為它們只是小幅上漲。然後你會再次引導第一季工業下降。所以，文斯，我的問題是工業真的走出了困境，是什麼幫助它超越季節性成長？

Because just assuming seasonal growth for the rest of fiscal '25 may not be sufficient, right, to really grow fiscal '25 at a strong pace. So just maybe help us understanding what's happening in the industrial market? And when do you expect it to start growing above seasonal trends next year?

因為僅僅假設 25 財年剩餘時間的季節性成長可能不足以真正實現 25 財年的強勁成長。那麼也許可以幫助我們了解工業市場正在發生的事情？您預計明年什麼時候它會開始高於季節性趨勢？

So, Vivek, I'll take that one. So 4Q, as you mentioned, was a bit lower than we expected, driven largely by weakness in the broad market and our decision to reduce channel inventory during the quarter. As you know, reducing channel inventory has an outsized impact on our industrial business. At the same time, we did see continued strength in ADAS instrumentation and test and a return to sequential growth in automation. If you remember, in the prior two quarters, we had seen significant declines in automation. So to see that return to sequential growth was a very positive sign.

那麼，Vivek，我就選那個。因此，正如您所提到的，第四季度的業績略低於我們的預期，這主要是由於大盤疲軟以及我們決定在本季度減少通路庫存所致。如您所知，減少渠道庫存對我們的工業業務影響巨大。同時，我們確實看到 ADAS 儀器和測試的持續成長以及自動化領域的連續成長。如果您還記得，在前兩個季度，我們看到自動化程度顯著下降。因此，看到恢復連續成長是一個非常積極的跡象。

Taking a step back, we've grown industrial sequentially now for two quarters of what we said was our trough in Q2 of '24. So we feel pretty good that the recovery is still unfolding for us. And now we're in a wait and give a bit to see what the macros do. But if I look to 2025, one of the important signals for us continues to be, we have been undershipping demand for the better part of 18 months.

退一步來說，我們的工業已經連續兩個季度實現了連續成長，這是我們所說的 24 年第二季的低谷。因此，我們感覺很好，復甦仍在繼續。現在我們正在等待，看看巨集的作用。但如果展望 2025 年，對我們來說重要的訊號之一仍然是，在 18 個月的大部分時間裡，我們的出貨量一直低於需求。

And if you just normalize that for even our historical patterns or the market patterns, it would indicate we've undershipped something like 20%, which is how we get confidence in coming out Q1 seasonal down, we will start to see growth again in industrial in the remainder of '25. Obviously, the slope of that recovery will be covered a bit by the macro backdrop.

如果你只是將我們的歷史模式或市場模式標準化，這將表明我們的出貨量不足約 20%，這就是我們對擺脫第一季季節性下降的信心的原因，我們將開始看到工業再次成長在'25 的剩餘時間。顯然，復甦的斜率將在一定程度上受到宏觀背景的影響。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

喬摩爾，摩根士丹利。

This is Shane from Morgan Stanley on behalf of Joe Moore. Just on your automotive business, how has customer orders and pricing discussions tracked for the growth areas of our portfolio such as A2B, GMSL, and functional safe power? And then how have they progressed for the sort of other half of the automotive business?

我是摩根士丹利的肖恩，代表喬摩爾。就您的汽車業務而言，我們的產品組合成長領域（例如 A2B、GMSL 和功能安全電源）的客戶訂單和定價討論情況如何？那麼他們在汽車業務的另一半方面進展如何呢？

So I'll break that into two pieces. I guess, I'll talk about our pricing first. So from a pricing perspective so far with customers, it's been largely as expected and continuing to exhibit the stability that we've talked about previously, right? We continue to focus on the high end where our customers' value performance versus price, we continue to command [ASPs for ex] the industry average, and that has continued to grow over the cycle.

所以我會把它分成兩個部分。我想，我會先談談我們的定價。因此，從迄今為止與客戶的定價角度來看，它基本上符合預期，並且繼續表現出我們之前討論過的穩定性，對嗎？我們繼續專注於高端市場，客戶看重性能與價格，我們繼續保持[ASP]行業平均水平，並且在整個週期中持續成長。

Particularly as we look across our large customers, we're becoming more and more important, moving from a essentially a Tier 2 contracting with Tier 1s to actually partnering with the OEMs at their early stages of design. And we've talked about before, price is set at the design in tend to stay pretty fixed throughout a long period of time, sometimes over a decade on average, although there is some volume discounts that come through. So we trade off incremental volume for small decreases in price.

特別是當我們審視我們的大客戶時，我們變得越來越重要，從本質上與一級供應商簽訂二級合同，轉變為在設計的早期階段與原始設備製造商實際合作。我們之前討論過，價格是在設計時設定的，在很長一段時間內，有時平均超過十年，價格往往保持相當固定，儘管會有一些批量折扣。因此，我們用增量來換取價格的小幅下降。

And then we do look to mitigate those discounts with our vintage increases on our older products. The other thing that's helping on the pricing stability is we are clearly broadly across costs in our business, experiencing inflationary environments, which supports continued stability on the pricing side.

然後，我們確實希望透過增加舊產品的年份來減輕這些折扣。另一件有助於定價穩定的事情是，我們的業務成本顯然廣泛，經歷了通貨膨脹環境，這支持了定價方面的持續穩定。

And your comment a little about the pieces of the automotive business, you're right. We break it down to kind of two halves. One, we call secondary growth areas. Vince outlined a bunch of those GMSL, A2B, functional safe power, and BMS. They make up about half our revenue in Auto, those grew in '24 over 10%.

您對汽車業務的一些評論是對的。我們把它分成兩半。一，我們稱之為二次增長區。 Vince 概述了一系列 GMSL、A2B、功能安全電源和 BMS。它們約占我們汽車收入的一半，24 年成長超過 10%。

The other part of the business, the other 50% is really a more standard product portfolio that goes across all OEMs, all customers are really up and down in production, that piece was down about 10% in '24. And you fast forward to '25, we think it'd be more of the same, where we see a lot of the growth come from those GMSL A2B, functional safe portfolio. And we said a couple of times in the call BMS will return of growth as well.

業務的另一部分，另外 50% 實際上是一個更標準的產品組合，涵蓋所有 OEM，所有客戶的產量確實上下波動，這部分在 24 年下降了約 10%。快轉到 25 年，我們認為情況會更加相同，我們看到很多成長來自 GMSL A2B、功能安全投資組合。我們在電話會議中多次說過 BMS 也將恢復成長。

Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

托雷‧思文凱 (Tore Svanberg)、史蒂菲爾 (Stifel)。

Yes. Thank you. Vince, I had a sort of bigger picture question, especially as we embark on this new cycle. So as I navigate your website, I just see some are software products. And I'm just wondering, as AI continues to move to the edge, what do you see as a differentiation here for Analog Devices, especially in relation to some of your other analog mixed single peers?

是的。謝謝。文斯，我有一個更大的問題，特別是當我們開始這個新周期時。因此，當我瀏覽您的網站時，我只看到一些是軟體產品。我只是想知道，隨著人工智慧繼續向邊緣發展，您認為 Analog Devices 的差異化是什麼，特別是與其他一些模擬混合單一同行相比？

Yeah. Thanks, Tore. Well, software is not particularly new to ADI in the sense that for many decades now, we've had a vibrant DST franchise with a lot of tool chain capability, algorithmic capability. But we've begun really, I think, over the last decade, taking a more application view to the world across all our core markets, industrial, automotive, communications, et cetera, et cetera. And we've begun moving up the stack from the core base of analog mixed signal of power technologies.

是的。謝謝，托雷。嗯，軟體對 ADI 來說並不是特別新鮮，幾十年來，我們已經擁有充滿活力的 DST 特許經營權，擁有大量工具鏈功能和演算法功能。但我認為，在過去的十年裡，我們確實已經開始對世界所有核心市場（工業、汽車、通訊等）採取更多的應用視角。我們已經開始從電源技術的模擬混合訊號的核心基礎向上推進堆疊。

So we use, I would say, more algorithmic technology to kind of -- as a copilot, so to speak, with the core Analog franchise. So everything we do in software essentially supports the cutting-edge strength that we have in the analog mixed signal and power solutions. And it's increasingly important for our ADI to present our solutions to our customers in a way that makes us easier and more enjoyable for them to use our solutions, the complexity and sophistication of what we bring to them.

因此，我想說，我們使用更多的演算法技術，可以說，作為副駕駛，擁有核心模擬專營權。因此，我們在軟體方面所做的一切本質上都是支持我們在模擬混合訊號和電源解決方案中擁有的尖端實力。對於我們的ADI 來說，以一種讓我們的客戶更輕鬆、更愉快地使用我們的解決方案以及我們為他們帶來的複雜性和精緻性的方式向客戶展示我們的解決方案變得越來越重要。

So over the last couple of months, we announced two new parts to our software story. One is what we call CodeFusion Studio. And essentially, what that is, is an open source software development environment that includes software development kits, tools, debuggers, and so on so forth. And that enables our customers to get access -- to be able to embed ADI's analog and digital technologies into their end system solutions.

因此，在過去的幾個月裡，我們宣布了軟體故事的兩個新部分。一種是我們所說的 CodeFusion Studio。從本質上講，這是一個開源軟體開發環境，包括軟體開發套件、工具、偵錯器等。這使我們的客戶能夠將 ADI 的類比和數位技術嵌入到他們的終端系統解決方案中。

And the second piece is, it goes without saying cybersecurity is top of mind for everybody. So we've released what we call the ADI Assure platform. And essentially, what it is, it's a new security architecture that enables us to provide a route of trust from the hardware right into the cloud, so to speak, and it understands the movement -- the creation and movement of data across that spectrum.

第二點是，不言而喻，網路安全是每個人最關心的問題。因此，我們發布了 ADI Assure 平台。從本質上講，它是一種新的安全架構，可以說，它使我們能夠提供從硬體到雲端的信任路徑，並且它理解移動——跨該範圍的資料的創建和移動。

So we are spending more on software than we've done, but we're taking a very holistic view. And I'd say using software to drive the innovation system of the company, the innovation within our products, around our products, and making it easier for our customers to access our solutions. That's it in a nutshell, I think.

因此，我們在軟體上的支出比以往更多，但我們的觀點非常全面。我想說的是，使用軟體來驅動公司的創新系統，我們產品內部的創新，圍繞我們產品的創新，並使我們的客戶更容易獲得我們的解決方案。我想，簡而言之，就是這樣。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein.

史黛西·拉斯岡，伯恩斯坦。

I wanted to ask about gross margins. What are your thoughts on gross margins into Q1 as revenue declines? And do you think that Q1 is the bottom as it does seem like you do think revenue grows off of there? Like how do we think about the trajectory off of that for gross margins in the next year? What is it taking get them back into the 60%-plus range? .

我想問一下毛利率。隨著營收下降，您對第一季毛利率有何看法？您是否認為第一季是底部，因為您確實認為收入將從那裡增長？例如我們如何看待明年毛利率的軌跡？怎樣才能讓他們回到 60% 以上的範圍？ 。

Stacy, I'll take that one. So Q4 gross margin was lower than we had expected due to mix. So with consumer and auto being so much stronger, while industrial is weaker, that created some downward pressure because we had talked about a slight sequential increase, which we didn't see. For Q1, we expected slower -- slightly lower gross margin given sort of normal factory shutdowns around the holidays as well as the seasonally lower revenue.

史黛西，我要那個。因此，由於混合因素，第四季的毛利率低於我們的預期。因此，由於消費者和汽車業如此強勁，而工業卻較弱，這造成了一些下行壓力，因為我們已經談到了輕微的環比增長，但我們沒有看到。對於第一季度，考慮到假期前後工廠正常停工以及季節性收入下降，我們預計毛利率會放緩 - 略有下降。

If we think about the -- when will we see sort of the 70%, this is going to continue to be driven by mix and utilization as we grow revenue. Right now, industrial is pretty low mix and utilization, while no longer decreasing and coming off of our low points back in Q2 remains sort of well below optimal levels. If you want to think about it from a longer-term perspective from a revenue view, we'd likely need revenue in the $2.7 billion-plus to start seeing 70%.

如果我們考慮一下——什麼時候我們才能看到 70%，隨著我們收入的成長，這將繼續受到混合和利用率的推動。目前，工業的組合和利用率相當低，但不再下降，並且擺脫了第二季度的低點，但仍遠低於最佳水平。如果你想從更長遠的收入角度來考慮這個問題，我們可能需要 27 億美元以上的收入才能開始看到 70%。

From a 2025 sort of sequential perspective, as we do, as we mentioned, expect revenue to recover to growth coming out of the Q1 seasonality, we would expect to see gross margin improvement as we work through the back half of the year. And then obviously, as we've talked about the back half macros will determine how much revenue growth we get and how much incremental margin we see.

從 2025 年的連續角度來看，正如我們所提到的，預計收入將在第一季季節性後恢復成長，我們預計在今年下半年，毛利率將有所改善。顯然，正如我們所討論的後半段宏觀將決定我們獲得多少收入成長以及我們看到多少增量利潤。

Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

提摩西‧阿庫裡，瑞銀集團。

Rich, you just mentioned that fiscal Q2 is going to be up. I'm wondering what you consider normal seasonal to be in fiscal Q2. It seems like it's up about 3% to 4%? So that's the first part of my question.

Rich，您剛剛提到第二財季即將結束。我想知道您認為第二財季的正常季節性是什麼。好像漲了3%到4%左右？這是我問題的第一部分。

And then the second part is, if you sort of strip out autos, I wonder like how is book-to-bill if you sort of strip out autos versus normal? Is it trending pretty much as you would think?

第二部分是，如果你剔除汽車，我想知道如果你剔除汽車與正常情況相比，訂單到帳單的情況如何？它的趨勢和你想像的一樣嗎？

I'll be on the first question to the book-to-build question. I was at loss to back to myself. I thought the two few questions maybe in the top 3 questions were number 7. So -- that's what how it goes some time.

我將討論書籍建構問題的第一個問題。我不知所措。我認為前 3 個問題中的兩個問題可能排在第七位。

But you're right, we keep on seasonally strength. What is seasonal mean in 2Q? It's been a while for seasonality. Usually, you see industrial and auto up mid-single digits in 2Q. Communication is up some as much, maybe flat, up slightly, while consumer was down a little bit. So overall, you're up about low to mid-single digits in the total company level. Again, that's seasonal trends, there's a wide band on that. That's typically how we think about 2Q from a seasonal perspective.

但你是對的，我們保持季節性強勢。第二季的季節性平均值是多少？季節性已經有一段時間了。通常，您會看到工業和汽車行業在第二季度出現中個位數成長。溝通也有所增加，也許持平，略有上升，而消費者則略有下降。總體而言，您在整個公司的水平中上升了大約中低個位數。再說一遍，這是季節性趨勢，有很寬的範圍。這通常是我們從季節性角度看待第二季的方式。

Yeah. On the bookings side. So as we talked about after the decline in Q3 in auto, total bookings returned to growth, driven by continued growth in industrial and a rebound in auto; overall book-to-bill was slightly below 1, which we'd say is pretty normal at this point, reflecting our seasonally lower 1Q outlook. Regionally, bookings were up everywhere, excluding the Americas, and that largely reflects the seasonal decline in consumer.

是的。在預訂方面。正如我們所談到的，在汽車行業第三季度下滑之後，在工業持續增長和汽車行業反彈的推動下，總預訂量恢復了增長；整體訂單出貨比略低於 1，我們認為目前這很正常，反映了我們對第一季前景的季節性下調。從地區來看，除美洲外，所有地區的預訂量均有所上升，這在很大程度上反映了消費者的季節性下降。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

羅斯·西莫爾，德意志銀行。

Vince, a bit of a longer-term question for you. Cycle to cycle, the good news is it sounds like you found the bottom, especially on the industrial side. And you mentioned that it was kind of the worst downturn from an inventory perspective in a long, long time.

文斯，這是一個對你來說比較長期的問題。一個又一個週期，好消息是聽起來你已經找到了底部，尤其是在工業方面。您提到，從庫存角度來看，這是很長一段時間以來最嚴重的衰退。

I guess my question is, the prior peak, I guess, in your fiscal '23, is that attainable? And what are the puts and takes to get to that? Because I guess from a big picture question, was that overinflated? Or was that a realistic target that we should look forward to? And if so, at what time?

我想我的問題是，我想，在你們的 23 財年，之前的高峰可以實現嗎？為了實現這一目標，需要採取哪些措施？因為我從一個大問題來看，這是否過度誇大了？或者說這是一個我們應該期待的現實目標嗎？如果是的話，什麼時間？

Yeah. Thanks, Ross. Well, I think first and foremost, our portfolio is in better position than it's ever been. I would say ADI's connection with our customers, big and small, is better than it's ever been. And we're investing, I believe, in the right areas in the R&D sector, our pipeline coming out of '24, it grew double digits year-over-year opportunity pipeline. So I think the company is well positioned. We've also been very, very, I would say, taking a very almost purest view to how we flush inventories, enable our customers to flush inventories off their balance sheets.

是的。謝謝，羅斯。嗯，我認為首先也是最重要的是，我們的投資組合比以往任何時候都處於更好的位置。我想說，ADI 與我們大大小小的客戶的聯繫比以往任何時候都更好。我相信，我們正在研發領域的正確領域進行投資，我們的管道自 24 年以來，與去年同期相比增長了兩位數的機會管道。所以我認為公司的定位很好。我想說，我們也非常非常以最純粹的角度來看待我們如何清理庫存，使我們的客戶能夠將庫存從他們的資產負債表中沖走。

So my sense is we've got a supply chain that is well capable of meeting what we believe will be good demand during '24. To get back to the kind of the '23 levels, we believe that our business is capable of growing double digits. So through the rest of the decade here, given the position we've got, the demand that we see, the opportunity pipeline. So -- and I think we will see a good down payment on that future prospects during '25.

所以我的感覺是，我們的供應鏈能夠很好地滿足我們認為 24 年期間的良好需求。回到23年的水平，我們相信我們的業務有能力實現兩位數成長。因此，在這十年的剩餘時間裡，考慮到我們所擁有的地位、我們看到的需求和機會管道。因此，我認為我們將在 25 年期間看到未來前景的良好首付。

William Stein, Truist Securities.

威廉·斯坦，Truist 證券公司。

Vince, I think you mentioned data center power management in the prepared remarks, but I'm hoping you can dig into this a little bit. There's been quite a bit of volatility there. There are some very what some people call charismatic design win opportunities in that end market. I know that at least one of the companies you acquired, Maxim had a significant effort in 48-volt [EMAC]. And I suspect [linear] had something there as well. I wonder if you can comment as to the medium-term opportunity as you all see it? And maybe any comment on design win traction there?

Vince，我認為您在準備好的發言中提到了資料中心電源管理，但我希望您能深入研究這一點。那裡有相當大的波動。有一些被一些人稱為魅力設計的東西可以在終端市場中贏得機會。我知道您收購的至少一家公司 Maxim 在 48 伏特 [EMAC] 領域做出了重大努力。我懷疑[線性]也有一些東西。不知道能否評價大家所看到的中期機會？也許任何關於設計的評論都會在那裡贏得關注？

Yes. Thanks, Will. So first off, if you just put the entire data center business in ADI in perspective, we have really two elements to our power story. I think one is the power solutions that go on the computing chips and the rest of the server infrastructure. The second piece is the control units, things like cut swapping, supervisory, so on and so forth. We've had good traction of that business for a long, long time. We've got some new products coming to market that will continue to boost that in terms of ASP, share and so on and so forth.

是的。謝謝，威爾。首先，如果您正確看待 ADI 的整個資料中心業務，我們的實力故事實際上有兩個要素。我認為其中之一是計算晶片和伺服器基礎設施其餘部分的電源解決方案。第二部分是控制單元，例如切割交換、監控等等。長期以來，我們在該業務上一直擁有良好的吸引力。我們已經推出了一些新產品，這些產品將繼續提高平均售價、份額等方面的水平。

We're also gaining good traction with our optical control solutions right up to 1.6 terabits. So that's kind of the landscape of products and technologies that we have. If you're going to win anything in this data center business, you've got to play an ecosystem game. So we play with the processor companies, we're playing with the data center companies themselves.

我們也憑藉高達 1.6 太比特的光學控制解決方案獲得了良好的關注。這就是我們擁有的產品和技術的概況。如果你想在資料中心業務中贏得任何勝利，你必須玩生態系統遊戲。因此，我們與處理器公司合作，我們與資料中心公司本身合作。

And again, we're picking our places very, very carefully. We're going for the highest end solutions where we can make a big difference in the energy space. By the way, we're even attaching energy solutions at kind of the more between the grid and the data center. So we view this power is just merely part of an energy solution, and we're looking at that from the intersection with the grid right on to the chip.

再說一次，我們非常非常仔細地選擇我們的位置。我們尋求最高端的解決方案，從而在能源領域產生巨大的影響。順便說一句，我們甚至在電網和資料中心之間附加了更多的能源解決方案。因此，我們認為這種電力只是能源解決方案的一部分，我們正在從與電網的交叉點一直到晶片上來看待它。

Thanks, Will. We can go to our last question please?

謝謝，威爾。我們可以轉到最後一個問題了嗎？

Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.

約書亞‧布查爾特 (Joshua Buchalter)，TD 考恩 (TD Cowen)。

I want to ask about utilization rates. I think you might be the only company in broad-based semis that called out higher utilization rates this quarter. How should we think about how you're thinking about that trending into fiscal 2025? It sounds like sell-in is matching sell-through? Should we just think about that ramping basically directionally and linearly with your revenue? Or any other puts and takes we should keep in mind as we think about the impact on margins?

我想問一下利用率。我認為您可能是基礎廣泛的半成品中唯一一家在本季提高利用率的公司。我們該如何看待您如何看待 2025 財年的趨勢？聽起來好像賣出與賣出相符？我們是否應該考慮基本上與您的收入呈線性線性增長？或者在考慮對利潤率的影響時我們應該牢記的任何其他看跌期權和看跌期權？

So I guess I would start with -- from a utilization perspective, we've talked about our agile manufacturing. One of the reasons we've been able to bring utilization levels up is our ability to swing capacity back into our internal fabs.

所以我想我會從利用的角度開始，我們已經討論了我們的敏捷製造。我們能夠提高利用率水準的原因之一是我們能夠將產能轉移回我們的內部晶圓廠。

So I think, as I mentioned, we're still not at anywhere near normalized utilization rate, but our ability to swing during the downturn has allowed us to continue to grow off the trough that we talked about in Q2. So we have seen two quarters of sequential modest -- I would say, modest sequential increases in utilization. And as the revenue picks up as we work our way through fiscal year '25, I expect that utilization to increase to continue.

因此，我認為，正如我所提到的，我們仍然沒有達到正常化的利用率，但我們在經濟低迷時期的波動能力使我們能夠繼續擺脫我們在第二季度談到的低谷。因此，我們看到兩個季度的利用率連續適度增長——我想說，利用率連續適度增長。隨著我們在 25 財年的努力，收入增加，我預計利用率將繼續增加。

All right. Thank you, Josh, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. A copy of the transcript will be available on our website. Thanks again for joining the call, and have a great Thanksgiving.

好的。謝謝喬什，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們的網站上將提供成績單副本。再次感謝您加入電話會議，祝您感恩節快樂。

Thank you. This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的 Analog Devices 電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。