亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營收 $28.8 億,超出財測高標,季增 9%、年增 25%;EPS $2.05,年增 30%
    • Q4 指引:營收預估 $30 億(±$1 億),工業、通訊、消費將續增,汽車預期下滑;EPS 指引 $2.22(±$0.10)
    • 工業事業群復甦動能強勁,盤後市場反應正面,管理層強調 2025 年將是強勁復甦年
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 工業自動化、機器人與 AI 基礎建設需求強勁,帶動工業事業群全面雙位數成長
      • 與 Teradyne Robotics、NVIDIA 等策略夥伴合作,推動高階機器人與數位孿生應用
      • 醫療機器人、精密感測與電源管理技術滲透率提升,帶動醫療與自動化領域新商機
    • 風險:
      • 地緣政治與總體經濟不確定性持續,特別是關稅政策對客戶需求的潛在影響
      • 汽車事業群短期受拉貨提前與中國市場波動影響,Q4 預期下滑
      • 部分工業子領域(如廣泛市場)仍處於庫存消化階段,需求尚未完全回歸
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 工業事業群:佔 Q3 營收 45%,季增 12%、年增 23%,所有子領域與地區皆成長
    • 汽車事業群:佔 30%,季減 1%、年增 22%,Q3 受中國拉貨提前影響,Q4 預期下滑
    • 通訊事業群:佔 13%,季增 18%、年增 40%,AI 需求帶動有線與數據中心業務雙位數成長
    • 消費事業群:佔 13%,季增 16%、年增 21%,連續四季雙位數年增,手機、穿戴、遊戲等皆強
  4. 財務預測
    • Q4 營收預估 $30 億(±$1 億)
    • Q4 毛利率預估 70%
    • 2025 年 CapEx 預估維持在營收的 4%~6%
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 工業事業群連續成長,是否已進入庫存回補?這波成長能持續多久?
      A: 工業業務自 Q2 觸底後持續成長,Q4 預期將季增低至中雙位數,所有子領域與地區皆有成長。通路庫存仍偏低,終端需求仍低於消費,Q4 開始會有補庫存現象,長短期展望皆樂觀。
    • Q: Q3 毛利率未達 70%,主因為何?Q4 是否能回升?
      A: Q3 因歐洲廠區一次性利用率下滑,導致毛利率未如預期提升,Q4 利用率已恢復,預期毛利率可回到 70%。
    • Q: 自動化業務未來成長展望?機器人與新應用是否加速成長?
      A: 自動化業務規模數億美元,預期 2030 年前可翻倍,受惠於新型態機器人、感測器滲透率提升與供應鏈安全需求,對未來 5~6 年成長非常樂觀。
    • Q: 汽車業務 Q3 拉貨提前,Q4 預期下滑,主要來自哪些地區?未來展望?
      A: Q3 汽車拉貨提前主要來自中國,Q2 則是北美與歐洲,Q4 預期將回落。全年汽車營收仍將創新高,長期受益於內容與市佔提升。
    • Q: 工業事業群強勁成長是否有提前拉貨現象?
      A: 目前工業業務訂單趨勢正常,未見異常拉貨,通路庫存仍偏低,成長主要來自真實需求回升。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices third quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web.

    早安,歡迎參加 ADI 公司 2025 財年第三季收益電話會議,該會議將透過電話和網路進行音訊網路直播。

  • I'd like to now introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Richard Puccio, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

    現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人,執行副總裁兼財務長理查德‧普喬先生。先生,請您發言。

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Josh, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our third quarter fiscal '25 conference call.

    謝謝你,喬希,大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 25 財年第三季電話會議。

  • Joining me today on the call is ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche. For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and related financial schedules at investor.analog.com.

    今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ADI 的執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche。對於錯過此次發布的人,您可以在 investor.analog.com 上找到它和相關的財務時間表。

  • The information we're about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, as further described in our earnings release and our periodic reports and other materials filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking information as these statements reflect our expectations only as of the date of this call. We undertake no obligation to update these statements, except as required by law.

    我們將要討論的資訊包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受某些風險和不確定性的影響,如我們的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告和其他資料中進一步描述的那樣。實際結果可能與前瞻性資訊有重大差異,因為這些陳述僅反映我們截至本次電話會議之日的預期。除非法律要求,否則我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

  • References to gross margin, operating and non-operating expenses, operating margin, tax rate, EPS, and free cash flow in our comments today will be on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes special items. When comparing our results to our historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior periods.

    我們今天的評論中提到的毛利率、營業費用和非營業費用、營業利潤率、稅率、每股收益和自由現金流均基於非 GAAP 基礎,不包括特殊項目。當我們的結果與歷史績效進行比較時,特殊項目也被排除在前期之外。

  • Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release. References to EPS are on a fully diluted basis.

    今天的收益報告包含了這些非公認會計準則指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標的對帳以及有關我們的非公認會計準則指標的其他資訊。每股盈餘 (EPS) 參考值是基於完全稀釋的基礎。

  • Okay. With that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche.

    好的。接下來,我將把發言權交給 ADI 的執行長兼董事長 Vincent Roche。

  • Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Rich, and a very good morning to you all.

    謝謝你,里奇,祝大家早安。

  • Well, our third-quarter revenue and earnings exceeded our expectations. And for the second quarter in a row, we achieved double-digit year-over-year growth across all of our end markets.

    嗯,我們第三季的營收和收益超出了我們的預期。連續第二個季度,我們在所有終端市場都實現了兩位數的年成長。

  • While geopolitical and macro uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook, we believe ADI's innovation-driven, resilient, highly diversified business model positions us to continue to successfully navigate these challenges. The accelerated recovery of our industrial business, encompassing instrumentation, automation, healthcare, aerospace and defense, and energy management, is a case in point.

    儘管地緣政治和宏觀不確定性繼續為前景蒙上陰影,但我們相信 ADI 的創新驅動、彈性、高度多樣化的商業模式使我們能夠繼續成功應對這些挑戰。我們的工業業務加速復甦就是一個很好的例子,其中包括儀器、自動化、醫療保健、航空航太和國防以及能源管理。

  • As you've heard us detail on prior calls, our industrial recovery began in the aerospace and defense and instrumentation sectors, driven by our strong product and customer portfolio positions, as well as spending growth in defense and AI infrastructure. We're now seeing double-digit year-over-year growth across the entire industrial portfolio.

    正如您在先前的電話會議中聽到的詳細說明,我們的工業復甦始於航空航天、國防和儀器儀表領域,這得益於我們強大的產品和客戶組合地位,以及國防和人工智慧基礎設施支出的成長。我們現在看到整個工業組合實現了兩位數的同比增長。

  • For today's call, I'm going to focus on our $1 billion-plus industrial automation business, which was the last sector to return to double-digit growth. Its market dynamics and trajectory are expected to bring long-term expansion.

    在今天的電話會議上,我將重點討論我們價值 10 多億美元的工業自動化業務,這是最後一個恢復兩位數成長的行業。其市場動態和軌跡預計將帶來長期擴張。

  • Companies have long invested in automation systems to gain first-order productivity, efficiency, and quality benefits. Today, a new wave of adoption is being driven by economic and demographic pressures and enabled by the potential to transform and accelerate business through leverage of real-time Intelligent Edge data.

    該公司長期以來一直投資自動化系統以獲得一流的生產力、效率和品質效益。如今,新一輪的採用浪潮正受到經濟和人口壓力的推動,並透過利用即時智慧邊緣數據來轉變和加速業務的潛力而得以實現。

  • ADI's high-performance technology stack and deep domain expertise are crucial to customer success in this highly sense, securely connected, software-driven era and the new robotic modalities that are emerging. It's predicted that the convergence of compounding macro and AI-enabled technology factors will drive robust double-digit growth within robotics market for the foreseeable future.

    在這個高度智慧、安全連接、軟體驅動的時代以及新興的機器人新模式中,ADI 的高效能技術堆疊和深厚的領域專業知識對於客戶的成功至關重要。據預測,複合宏觀因素和人工智慧技術因素的整合將在可預見的未來推動機器人市場實現強勁的兩位數成長。

  • ADI's ability to deliver exceptionally accurate physical representations that enable faster insights of the edge will become even more essential as the market migrates to next-generation autonomous robotic systems. Our long history of robotics has given us a deep understanding of the sector's hardest problems and the greatest opportunities.

    隨著市場向下一代自主機器人系統遷移,ADI 提供極其精確的物理表示,從而能夠更快地洞察邊緣的能力將變得更加重要。我們在機器人技術領域的悠久歷史使我們深刻理解該領域最棘手的問題和最大的機會。

  • We're investing to maintain our performance in edge and analog while capturing increasing levels of system value. In addition, we're building ecosystem partnerships and deploying experts and an increasingly broad suite of technologies to enrich and deepen our customer collaborations. We expect this multi-pronged approach to unlock significant ASP and some expansion for our automation business, following the proven path we've successfully executed in other markets such as aerospace and defense and healthcare.

    我們正在投資以保持我們在邊緣和模擬方面的表現,同時獲得不斷增長的系統價值。此外,我們正在建立生態系統合作夥伴關係,部署專家和日益廣泛的技術,以豐富和深化我們與客戶的合作。我們期望這種多管齊下的方法能夠釋放出顯著的平均售價,並為我們的自動化業務帶來一定程度的擴展,並遵循我們在航空航太、國防和醫療保健等其他市場成功實施的成熟路徑。

  • Now let me share a few examples of our strategy in action. Earlier this year, we partnered with Teradyne Robotics. Our solutions for precision positioning and dynamic motion control are helping Teradyne increase their value proposition to the logistics industry through higher-performance cobots and autonomous mobile robots, or AMRs.

    現在讓我分享一些我們實施策略的例子。今年早些時候,我們與 Teradyne Robotics 建立了合作關係。我們的精密定位和動態運動控制解決方案正在幫助 Teradyne 透過更高性能的協作機器人和自主移動機器人 (AMR) 提升其對物流行業的價值主張。

  • In the agricultural sector, where labor shortages are chronic, high-precision robotic systems are increasingly filling the gap. In addition, these systems' enhanced collection capabilities are enabling higher crop yields while reducing water and chemical usage levels. A growing portion of our robotics revenue is coming from this sector as we help customers solve their toughest challenges through our sensing, connectivity, and energy management solutions.

    在勞動力長期短缺的農業領域,高精度機器人系統正日益填補這一空缺。此外,這些系統增強的收集能力可以提高農作物產量,同時減少水和化學品的使用量。我們透過感測、連結和能源管理解決方案幫助客戶解決最棘手的挑戰,機器人收入中越來越大的一部分來自這一領域。

  • In the healthcare sector, robot-assisted surgery systems minimize invasiveness and improve patient outcomes through enhanced system precision. And we're leveraging our leading precision technology franchise to successfully attach more of our power management, connectivity, and sensing content to the more innovative systems being designed and employed. This year, we're achieving robust growth and expect continued momentum as the proliferation of automated surgical procedures further expands our opportunities in this space.

    在醫療保健領域,機器人輔助手術系統透過提高系統精確度來最大限度地減少侵入性並改善患者的治療效果。我們正在利用我們領先的精密技術特許經營權,成功地將更多的電源管理、連接和感測內容附加到正在設計和使用的更具創新性的系統中。今年,我們實現了強勁成長,隨著自動化手術的普及進一步擴大我們在這一領域的機會,我們預計這種成長勢頭將繼續保持。

  • Overall, the near and medium-term outlook for robotics is compelling, supported by increasing revenue and the burgeoning opportunity pipeline. From this strong foundation, we're extending into the next promising era of robotics, namely humanoid and other highly dexterous robot form factors; and creating a potentially exponential growth opportunity for ADI.

    總體而言,在收入增加和機會不斷湧現的支持下,機器人技術的近期和中期前景令人矚目。在這個堅實的基礎上,我們將進入機器人技術的下一個光明時代,即人形機器人和其他高度靈巧的機器人形態;並為 ADI 創造潛在的指數級增長機會。

  • Our content in the humanoid robot is likely to be several thousands of dollars, and that's basically a 10x increase over the content in today's cutting-edge AMRs. The primary reason for this content multiplier is the explosion sensor and actuator counts. Every joint and point of contact requires accurate sensing and precision motor control, and every sensor and actuator drives the signal chain and power management opportunity for ADI.

    我們在人形機器人中的內容可能要花費數千美元,這基本上比當今尖端的AMR中的內容增加了10倍。該內容倍增器的主要原因是爆炸感測器和執行器的數量。每個關節和接觸點都需要精確的感測和精密的馬達控制,每個感測器和致動器都為 ADI 提供訊號鍊和電源管理機會。

  • To further capture this flourishing opportunity, we're investing in higher-level application-specific solutions that integrates multiple sensing modalities, such as pressure, vibration, depth, acoustics, vision, and positioning with high accuracy, ultra-low power signal chains, functionally safe power management, and AI algorithms powered by robotics foundation models.

    為了進一步抓住這一蓬勃發展的機會,我們正在投資更高級別的特定應用解決方案,該解決方案集成了多種感測模式,例如壓力、振動、深度、聲學、視覺和高精度定位、超低功耗信號鏈、功能安全的電源管理以及由機器人基礎模型驅動的人工智慧演算法。

  • Simultaneously, we're collaborating with NVIDIA on a range of digital twin simulation programs and reference designs for humanoid and other robotic systems to accelerate development and AI training for our customers. This work is particularly relevant for high-value applications such as dexterous manipulation of cable assemblies in data centers and, of course, in automotive manufacturing, to name just one.

    同時,我們正在與 NVIDIA 合作開發一系列數位孿生類比程式和人形機器人及其他機器人系統的參考設計,以加速客戶的開發和人工智慧培訓。這項工作對於高價值應用尤其重要,例如資料中心的電纜組件的靈巧操作,當然還有汽車製造,僅舉一例。

  • We are combining ADI's unique sensor expertise and our latest advances in robotics policy training techniques to enhance realism in NVIDIA's Isaac Sim and substantially shorten our customers' innovation time lines.

    我們將 ADI 獨特的感測器專業知識與我們在機器人策略訓練技術方面的最新進展相結合,以增強 NVIDIA 的 Isaac Sim 的真實感,並大幅縮短客戶的創新時間。

  • So in summary, we're capitalizing on growth in advanced robotics today and investing to capture even more value in the future. Ultimately, the strategy, investments, and customer impact of our robotics business is a microcosm of our approach across ADI mainly on covering and tackling the hardest innovation challenges at the intelligent physical edge and leveraging our industry-leading technology portfolio and expertise to solve them.

    總而言之,我們正在利用當今先進機器人技術的成長,並進行投資以在未來獲得更多價值。最終,我們的機器人業務的策略、投資和客戶影響是 ADI 公司方法的縮影,主要涵蓋和解決智慧物理邊緣最困難的創新挑戰,並利用我們領先業界的技術組合和專業知識來解決這些挑戰。

  • As we turn our attention to the end of fiscal '25 and the beginning of the new fiscal year, we're focused on executing our strategy and capitalizing on cyclical and idiosyncratic momentum. Despite the geopolitical and macro turbulence, we remain undeterred and excited by the tremendous growth opportunities that we see over both the near and long terms.

    當我們將注意力轉向 25 財年末和新財年開始時,我們專注於執行我們的策略並利用週期性和特殊的勢頭。儘管存在地緣政治和宏觀動盪,我們仍然沒有被嚇倒,並且對近期和長期看到的巨大成長機會感到興奮。

  • And with that, I'm going to pass it back to Rich.

    說完這些,我就要把它交還給里奇。

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Vince. Now on to our third-quarter results.

    謝謝你,文斯。現在來看看我們的第三季業績。

  • Revenue of $2.88 billion came in above the high end of our outlook, up 9% sequentially and 25% year over year. Industrial represented 45% of our third-quarter revenue, finishing up 12% sequentially and 23% year over year.

    28.8 億美元的營收高於我們預期的高端,季增 9%,年增 25%。工業業務占我們第三季營收的 45%,季增 12%,年增 23%。

  • Our industrial recovery has continued with sequential growth across all subsectors and regions. Year-over-year growth accelerated across all major applications led by our automatic test equipment business, fueled by increasing AI investment. Additionally, our aerospace and defense business had a record quarter.

    我們的工業復甦持續進行,所有子行業和地區都實現了連續成長。在人工智慧投資不斷增加的推動下,以自動測試設備業務為主導的所有主要應用領域均實現了同比增長。此外,我們的航空航太和國防業務本季創下了紀錄。

  • Automotive represented 30% of quarterly revenue, finishing down 1% sequentially and up 22% year over year. Double-digit year-over-year growth continues to be driven by our leading connectivity and functionally safe power solutions.

    汽車業務佔本季營收的 30%,季減 1%,較去年同期成長 22%。我們領先的連接性和功能安全的電源解決方案繼續推動兩位數的年增長。

  • Communications represented 13% of quarterly revenue, finishing up 18% sequentially and 40% year over year. Our wireline and data center business, which is roughly two-thirds of total communications, grew double digits sequentially and year over year as increasing AI demand continues. Wireless also grew double digits both sequentially and year over year.

    通訊業務佔本季營收的 13%,比上一季成長 18%,比去年同期成長 40%。我們的有線和資料中心業務約佔通訊總量的三分之二,隨著人工智慧需求的持續成長,該業務環比和年比均實現了兩位數成長。無線業務也實現了環比和同比兩位數的成長。

  • And lastly, consumer represented 13% of quarterly revenue, finishing up 16% sequentially and 21% year over year, marking the fourth straight quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth. We continue to see strength across handsets, gaming, hearables, and wearables.

    最後,消費者業務佔季度營收的 13%,季增 16%,年增 21%,連續第四個季度實現兩位數年增。我們持續看到手機、遊戲、穿戴式裝置和穿戴式裝置領域的強勁表現。

  • Now on to the rest of the P&L. Third-quarter gross margin was 69.2% and operating margin was 42.2%, up 100 basis points sequentially and year over year. Non-operating expenses finished at $57 million, and the tax rate for the quarter was 11.9%. All told, EPS was $2.05, above the high end of our guided range and up 30% year over year.

    現在來看看損益表的其餘部分。第三季毛利率為 69.2%,營業利益率為 42.2%,較上一季及去年同期成長 100 個基點。非營業支出最終為 5,700 萬美元,本季稅率為 11.9%。總而言之,每股收益為 2.05 美元,高於我們指引範圍的高端,年增 30%。

  • Now I'd like to highlight a few items from our balance sheet and our cash flow statement. Cash and short-term investments finished the quarter at $3.5 billion, and our net leverage ratio remained virtually flat at 1.1.

    現在我想重點介紹一下我們的資產負債表和現金流量表中的幾個項目。本季度,現金和短期投資達到 35 億美元,我們的淨槓桿率基本上保持在 1.1 的水平。

  • Inventory increased $72 million sequentially in support of the cycle recovery. Days of inventory declined to 160, and channel weeks ticked lower. We are continuing to execute our strategy of keeping leaner channel inventories while maintaining higher levels on our balance sheet.

    為支援週期復甦,庫存環比增加了 7,200 萬美元。庫存天數下降至 160 天,通路週數也小幅下降。我們將繼續執行我們的策略,保持更精簡的通路庫存,同時維持資產負債表的更高水準。

  • Over the trailing 12 months, operating cash flow and CapEx were $4.2 billion and $0.5 billion, respectively. We continue to expect fiscal 2025 CapEx to be within our long-term model of 4% to 6% of revenue.

    在過去的 12 個月中,經營現金流和資本支出分別為 42 億美元和 5 億美元。我們繼續預期 2025 財年的資本支出將在我們的長期模型中佔營收的 4% 至 6% 範圍內。

  • Free cash flow over the trailing 12 months was $3.7 billion or 35% of revenue, and we have returned $3.5 billion in cash to shareholders over the last four quarters. As a reminder, we target 100% free cash flow return over the long term, using 40% to 60% for our dividend and the remainder for share count reduction.

    過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 37 億美元,佔營收的 35%,我們在過去四個季度向股東返還了 35 億美元現金。提醒一下,我們的目標是長期實現 100% 的自由現金流回報,其中 40% 至 60% 用於分紅,剩餘部分用於減少股票數量。

  • Now on to our fourth-quarter guidance. Revenue is expected to be $3 billion, plus or minus $100 million. On a sequential basis, at the midpoint, we expect industrial, communications, and consumer to increase with the fastest growth in industrial. Automotive is expected to decline.

    現在來看看我們的第四季指引。預計營收為 30 億美元,上下浮動 1 億美元。從中點來看,我們預期工業、通訊和消費將出現成長,其中工業成長最快。預計汽車業將會下滑。

  • Operating margin is expected to increase to 43.5%, plus or minus 100 basis points. Our tax rate is expected to be between 11% and 13%. And based on these inputs, adjusted EPS is expected to be $2.22, plus or minus $0.10.

    預計營業利益率將增至 43.5%,上下浮動 100 個基點。我們的稅率預計在11%至13%之間。根據這些輸入,調整後的每股盈餘預計為 2.22 美元,上下浮動 0.10 美元。

  • In closing, our strong results and outlook for continued growth, especially in the industrial market, reinforce our view that 2025 will close as a strong recovery year for ADI. However, we are mindful of the continued uncertainty facing customers with respect to tariffs and are monitoring the impacts closely.

    最後,我們強勁的業績和持續成長的前景(尤其是在工業市場)強化了我們的觀點,即 2025 年將成為 ADI 強勁復甦的一年。然而,我們注意到客戶在關稅方面仍面臨不確定性,並密切關注其影響。

  • We believe we are well positioned to successfully navigate an evolving global operating environment thanks to the optionality enabled by the diversity of our markets, applications, and products and the resilience of our hybrid manufacturing strategy.

    我們相信,憑藉我們市場、應用和產品的多樣性所帶來的選擇性以及我們混合製造策略的彈性,我們已準備好成功應對不斷變化的全球營運環境。

  • With that, let's go to our Q&A session. (Event Instructions) Operator, can we have our first question, please?

    接下來,我們進入問答環節。(活動說明)接線員,我們可以問第一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

    (操作員指示)瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • So industrial last quarter was up 7%. It was up 11% this quarter, and it sounds like it's going to be very strong again in fiscal Q4. Can you just talk -- do you think you're now shooting above consumption in these markets?

    因此上季的工業成長了7%。本季成長了 11%,而且聽起來第四財季的成長勢頭將再次強勁。您能否簡單談談—您認為現在這些市場的消費量是否已經超越了預期?

  • How do you view where we are? Are we now in inventory build mode in those markets? And how do you assess how long this can last?

    您如何看待我們現在的處境?我們現在是否處於這些市場的庫存建設模式?您如何評估這種情況會持續多久?

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So since we called the bottom back in Q2, so industrial has been our most profitable business and has grown sequentially every quarter. More recently, as we talked about, the growth has accelerated. And our outlook for Q4, which is normally a seasonally down quarter for industrial, we expect it to grow in the low to mid-teens quarter over quarter. So very strong outlook there.

    自從我們在第二季觸底以來,工業一直是我們最賺錢的業務,並且每季都連續成長。最近,正如我們所討論的,成長速度加快了。我們對第四季的展望是,第四季通常是工業季節性下滑的季度,我們預計其環比成長將達到百分之十幾到十幾之間。因此前景非常光明。

  • And what's important is growth is happening across all of our industrial sectors, including instrumentation, automation, aerospace, defense, healthcare, and energy infrastructure as well as across all the geographies. Again, an indication that we are in the cyclical upturn.

    重要的是,我們所有的工業領域都在實現成長,包括儀器、自動化、航空航太、國防、醫療保健和能源基礎設施以及所有地區。這再次表明我們正處於週期性上升階段。

  • At the same time, for us, we've talked about this in multiple quarters. Our channel inventories continue to be very lean, and we believe end demand is still double digits below consumption.

    同時,對於我們來說,我們已經在多個季度討論過這個問題。我們的通路庫存仍然非常少,我們相信最終需求仍然比消費量低兩位數。

  • Now we are going to start seeing some catch-up to the end demand in the fourth quarter. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we did see the channel inventory weeks tick down a little bit as the end demand was a bit higher than we had planned.

    現在我們將開始看到第四季最終需求回升。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,我們確實看到通路庫存週數略有下降,因為最終需求比我們計劃的要高一些。

  • So on top of that, as we look forward, we are continuing to see green shoots across aerospace and defense and ATE. And so we feel pretty good about where we are both near and long term from an industrial perspective.

    因此,最重要的是,展望未來,我們將繼續看到航空航太、國防和 ATE 領域的復甦跡象。因此,從工業角度來看,我們對我們的近期和長期發展狀況感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Great job on the quarterly execution. Look like you guys had anticipated last earnings call gross margins for Q3 to be closer to 70%. But actually, actuals were actually closer to 69%. I assume it's because of the upside and the lower-margin communications business, which was up 17% sequentially.

    季度執行情況非常好。看起來你們在上次財報電話會議上預計第三季的毛利率將接近 70%。但事實上,實際數字更接近 69%。我認為這是因為利潤率較低的通訊業務環比增長了 17%。

  • So potentially, mix related. Is that a fair assumption? And then on Q4 at the midpoint of your guidance range, are you guys assuming that gross margins are improving sequentially?

    因此,有可能與混合有關。這是一個合理的假設嗎?那麼,在第四季的指導範圍中點,你們是否假設毛利率會連續提高?

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, so I'll take that one. So yes, we did have an implied increase in the margin. However, we did have an unexpected lower utilization during the quarter, which kept us from growing our gross margin on a sequential basis.

    是的,所以我選擇這個。所以是的,我們的利潤率確實有所增加。然而,本季我們的利用率確實意外下降,這使得我們的毛利率無法連續成長。

  • However, the utilization is back on track, and we expect it to resume its increase. And in Q4 at the midpoint, we do expect to get back to a 70% margin.

    然而,利用率已重回正軌,我們預計它將恢復成長。而在第四季中期,我們確實預期利潤率將回到 70%。

  • Had we not had the disruption in the utilization in the third quarter, we actually would have grown sequentially. But the mix piece as you mentioned, because we still are only at 45% industrial mix in the third quarter, would have kept us from fully getting to 70%.

    如果我們在第三季沒有遇到利用率中斷的情況,我們實際上會實現連續成長。但正如您所提到的,由於第三季我們的工業結構比例仍然只有 45%,因此我們無法完全達到 70%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

    托爾·思文伯格,Stifel。

  • Tore Svanberg - Analyst

    Tore Svanberg - Analyst

  • Congrats on the continuous recovery here. Vince, I had a question on the automation revenue. I think in the past, you've talked about this being a 15% grower, and that's certainly above the corporate average.

    恭喜您持續康復。文斯,我對自動化收入有一個疑問。我想,您過去曾談到這是一個 15% 的成長,這肯定高於企業平均。

  • I'm just curious, given everything that you're seeing now in humanoids, in robotics, reference designs with some key GPU plays, and so on and so forth. Are you starting to see perhaps an acceleration to that 15% growth target going forward?

    我只是很好奇,考慮到你現在在人形機器人、機器人、參考設計以及一些關鍵 GPU 發揮等方面所看到的一切。您是否開始看到未來 15% 的成長目標加速實現?

  • Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So yeah, the automation business for ADI is multiple hundreds of millions of dollars on an annual basis. And it's our sense that by 2030, we can double the size of that business given the strength of the R&D pipeline, the opportunity pipeline that we have, as well as some of these new modalities that are coming into play.

    是的,ADI 的自動化業務每年價值數億美元。我們認為,到 2030 年,憑藉強大的研發實力、我們擁有的機會管道以及正在發揮作用的一些新模式,我們可以將業務規模擴大一倍。

  • As demographic and macro pressures lean on putting more and more manufacturing capability closer to points of consumption, there's obviously a security issue as well as supply chain security issues. So all those factors, I think exogenous and endogenous factors, point to a strong growth in that business.

    隨著人口和宏觀壓力傾向於將越來越多的製造能力置於更接近消費點的位置,顯然存在安全問題以及供應鏈安全問題。因此,我認為所有這些因素,包括外生因素和內生因素,都表明該業務將強勁成長。

  • Also, as I pointed out in the prepared remarks, we're seeing a lot of these sensing modalities come to bear. And every one of those sensors or actuators that our customers are putting in place require very precision -- very, very precise sensing, control, and data processing. So for all those reasons, we feel very optimistic about the state of this business and the potential to grow and double its size over the next five or six years.

    此外,正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣,我們看到許多這樣的感測方式正在發揮作用。我們的客戶安裝的每個感測器或執行器都需要非常精確—非常非常精確的感測、控制和資料處理。因此,基於所有這些原因,我們對該業務的現狀以及未來五、六年內成長一倍的潛力感到非常樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vivek Arya, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的維韋克·艾瑞亞(Vivek Arya)。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • I think in response to a prior question, you mentioned that you're seeing green shoots in different parts of industrial, right, despite the strength that you saw in Q2 and Q3. Does it mean that as we potentially look out to Q1 -- is ADI still capable of growing at least seasonal or above seasonal? And if yes, what is normal range of seasonality so we can calibrate our models?

    我認為在回答之前的問題時,您提到儘管您在第二季和第三季看到了強勁的成長勢頭,但您仍然看到工業不同領域出現了復甦跡象。這是否意味著,當我們展望第一季時,ADI 是否仍能夠至少實現季節性成長或高於季節性的成長?如果是的話,正常的季節性範圍是多少,以便我們可以校準我們的模型?

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Vivek, I'll start. From a Q1 perspective, as we've said before, we don't guide to Q1, but we do expect that we'll be able to grow that seasonal. And obviously, for us, on an overall perspective, first quarter tends to seasonally be down in the low single digits.

    維韋克,我先開始。從第一季的角度來看,正如我們之前所說,我們不會對第一季做出預測,但我們確實預計我們能夠實現季節性成長。顯然,對我們來說,從整體來看,第一季的季節性下降趨勢為個位數較低。

  • Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So I think as we look into the new year, I believe industrial will be a very, very strong part of our momentum in the coming year.

    是的。因此,我認為,當我們展望新的一年時,我相信工業將成為我們來年發展勢頭中非常強勁的一部分。

  • And as Rich narrated in part of Q&A here, from just the supply-demand side of things, we're seeing still, customers are in digestion phase, their excess inventories -- and particularly in the broad market, which is a piece of -- has been a significant piece of the industrial business in the past where we're still seeing the demand there quite light.

    正如里奇在部分問答環節中所述,僅從供需方面來看,我們仍然看到客戶處於消化階段,他們的過剩庫存——尤其是在廣闊的市場中,這在過去一直是工業業務的重要組成部分,我們仍然看到那裡的需求相當低迷。

  • So there's still a normalization to take place, which should boost the industrial sales in the coming quarters as well as our position with new products and our position with customers and new applications, so -- in the automation space.

    因此,仍需進行正常化,這將推動未來幾季的工業銷售,以及我們在新產品、客戶和新應用方面的地位,也就是在自動化領域。

  • So we've got aerospace and defense, which has been incredibly strong. In fact, in some ways, we're supply limited in that business. So I think that will be the bedrock of the next several quarters of the company's performance.

    因此,我們擁有航空航太和國防領域,這些領域一直非常強大。事實上,從某種程度上來說,我們在該業務中的供應是有限的。所以我認為這將成為公司未來幾季業績的基石。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的吉姆·施耐德。

  • James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

    James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

  • I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing in the automotive market. I believe last quarter, you referenced some pull in activity. Did you, in fact, see that occur in the quarter? And from -- if so, from what regions?

    我想知道您是否可以提供更多關於您所看到的汽車市場的情況。我相信上個季度您提到了一些拉動活動。事實上,您是否看到本季出現這種情況?如果是的話,來自哪些地區?

  • And then going forward, maybe talk a little bit about what's driving sequential decline you expect in the next quarter? And any color you can provide on regions or customer OEM types would be helpful.

    然後展望未來,也許您可以稍微談談您預計下個季度將連續下滑的原因是什麼?您根據地區或客戶 OEM 類型提供的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So obviously, we continue to perform very well in automotive, particularly in our connectivity and power management doing auto revenue. As we said, we expect to record record levels of auto revenue for '25.

    顯然,我們在汽車領域繼續表現良好,特別是在連接性和電源管理方面,汽車收入有所增長。正如我們所說,我們預計 25 年汽車收入將創下歷史新高。

  • In addition to our content broken share gains in the next-gen ADAS and infotainment systems, we do believe our auto revenue has been aided by some order acceleration, which we talked about in Q2. We do think there was some additional acceleration in Q3.

    除了我們在下一代 ADAS 和資訊娛樂系統中內容份額的成長之外,我們確實相信我們的汽車收入得到了一些訂單加速的幫助,我們在第二季度談到了這一點。我們確實認為第三季出現了一些額外的加速。

  • However, we do see an unwinding in Q4, which is why we expect to see Q4 come down. We think that that will be the close out of that line. And this is what we actually talked about when we released our last quarter results was -- we expected that the pull-ins were likely going to come from our Q4 or Q1 period. Based on the way it's settling out, it looks like it's unwind in the fourth quarter.

    然而,我們確實看到第四季度出現下滑,這就是我們預計第四季將下降的原因。我們認為那將是該線路的結束。我們在發布上一季業績時實際上談論的是——我們預計拉動成長可能會來自第四季或第一季。從目前的情況來看,第四季的情況似乎有所緩和。

  • And if you think about that somewhat just from a sizing perspective, in the current quarter, we were obviously above our high end of our guide. And I think largely, that part of the -- that we were above the high end of our guide was likely related to auto pull-ins.

    如果你僅從規模角度來考慮這一點,那麼在本季度,我們的業績顯然超出了我們的預期上限。我認為,很大程度上,我們的銷售額超出指南上限的部分可能與自動拉入有關。

  • And what's different this time actually is the auto pull-ins we saw at this time in Q3 were in China, whereas when we talk about them in Q2, that was for North America and Europe.

    而這次的不同之處在於,我們在第三季度看到的汽車銷售成長是在中國,而當我們在第二季度談論它們時,那是在北美和歐洲。

  • It's impossible for us to know how this will shake out. But we do think that given the behavior we've seen from our auto customers, EV credits expiring and a risk of tariffs could curtail production.

    我們不可能知道事情最終會如何發展。但我們確實認為,鑑於我們從汽車客戶那裡看到的行為,電動車信貸到期和關稅風險可能會限制生產。

  • We are taking a bit of a more conservative view to automotive in the near term. But stepping back again, you'll have our third record year in Ottawa in the last four years, which is reflecting our content and share gains.

    短期內我們對汽車產業持較保守的看法。但再回顧一下,過去四年來,我們在渥太華已經創下了第三個紀錄,這反映了我們的內容和份額的成長。

  • And we've talked about this before, we tend to outpace the SAAR volumes with content gains where we're getting about a double-digit benefit from share and content. So we feel really well positioned there as we go into the medium and long term.

    我們之前討論過這個問題,我們傾向於透過內容收益來超越 SAAR 量,我們從份額和內容中獲得了大約兩位數的收益。因此,從中長期來看,我們覺得自己處於非常有利的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

    拉斯貢(Stacy Rasgon),伯恩斯坦研究公司。

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • So on the auto points, and I guess relative to industrial. So I mean, you're guiding auto implicitly down 15% sequentially as those pull-ins ease. But industrial, you're guiding up. I don't know, you said low to mid-teens, which would put it up in the mid-30% year over year.

    因此,關於汽車點,我猜是相對於工業而言的。所以我的意思是,隨著這些拉動的放鬆,你會引導汽車逐漸下降 15%。但工業方面,你正在引導。我不知道,您說的是低至十幾歲,這意味著同比增長率將在 30% 左右。

  • What are you seeing differently on the trend in industrial versus what you saw in auto that gives you confidence that the strength you're seeing industrial has not also pull forward?

    您認為工業領域的趨勢與汽車領域的趨勢有何不同,讓您相信工業領域的強勢還沒有顯現?

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So what we talked about last time was the indicators, Stacy, for what we thought were pulling where we saw unplanned growth in areas around -- and we saw the anomalous bookings behavior that happened around the tariff announcements; and in the ensuing reversals, things normalize.

    所以,史黛西,我們上次討論的是那些我們認為正在拉動的指標,我們看到週邊地區出現了計劃外的增長——我們看到了關稅公告發布前後發生的異常預訂行為;而在隨後的逆轉中,事情恢復了正常。

  • We have not seen that behavior in industrial. In fact, the bookings trends have followed the trends we were expecting. It's impossible to say there isn't some minor amount maybe in any of the businesses, but we haven't seen anything outside of auto that would give us an indication as any meaningful pull-in in our business.

    我們在工業領域還沒有看到這種行為。事實上,預訂趨勢符合我們的預期。不可能說任何業務中都沒有少量成長,但我們還沒有看到汽車以外的任何業務能夠為我們帶來任何有意義的成長跡象。

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • Industrial is well above seasonal, though. So I mean, is that just -- that's just increased demand in channel fill or what?

    不過,工業產量遠高於季節性產量。所以我的意思是,這只是——這只是渠道填充需求的增加還是什麼?

  • Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • It's nothing to do with channel. Channel is very lean. We're still under shipping real consumption of the market. Parts of industrial have been just an inventory digestion mode for actually a couple of years. So we're starting to get that behind us.

    和渠道沒關係。頻道非常精簡。我們仍處於運輸市場實際消費水準之下。實際上,幾年來部分工業一直處於庫存消化模式。所以我們開始解決這個問題。

  • But if you look at the strength of our aerospace and defense business, I mentioned there a little while ago, we're actually supply line there; very, very strong backlog. ATE, which is supporting the build-out of AI chips and infrastructure, very, very strong, strong demand. And we've begun to see the recovery of the automation business in the -- over the last couple of two, three quarters.

    但如果你看看我們的航空航太和國防業務的實力,我剛才提到過,我們實際上是那裡的供應線;積壓訂單非常非常強勁。支援 AI 晶片和基礎設施建設的 ATE 需求非常非常強勁。在過去的兩三個季度裡,我們已經開始看到自動化業務的復甦。

  • When you couple that a while with healthcare, which has been really damped in terms of demand ever since the peak of the pandemic there, that should come good as well, and we're seeing signs of stabilization. But that should come good over the next few quarters.

    如果再加上醫療保健,那麼自從疫情高峰以來,醫療保健的需求就一直受到抑制,這種情況也應該會好起來,而且我們看到了穩定的跡象。但在接下來的幾個季度裡,情況應該會好轉。

  • So I think you pull that together, the breadth and the depth, the customer count, the product counts, some of the idiosyncratic trends that we've captured, as well as just the overall rising tide in demand across the board bodes well for the industrial business.

    所以我認為,把這些綜合起來,廣度和深度、客戶數量、產品數量、我們捕捉到的一些特殊趨勢,以及整體需求的上升趨勢,對工業業務來說都是好兆頭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Danely, Citi.

    花旗銀行的克里斯丹尼利 (Chris Danely)。

  • Christopher Danely - Analyst

    Christopher Danely - Analyst

  • Can you just give us a little more color on why the utilization rates came down, and then where utilization rates are, where you expect them to go, and any other gross margin drivers going forward as well?

    您能否向我們詳細介紹利用率下降的原因,以及利用率目前處於什麼水平,您預計利用率將如何變化,以及未來還有其他什麼影響毛利率的因素?

  • Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think we had, as Rich said, a one-time event in our European fab during the last quarter. That was the primary dampening effect on the gross margin. So it became an absorption issue.

    正如里奇所說,我認為上個季度我們在歐洲工廠舉辦了一次活動。這是對毛利率的主要抑製作用。所以它變成了一個吸收問題。

  • I will say as well, pricing has been very, very steady. And as our mix improves on the industrial side of things, we get the benefit of that in the gross margin. And I don't expect a repeat of what was a one-time event in one of our factories in the last quarter to repeat.

    我還要說的是,價格一直都非常非常穩定。隨著我們的工業產品組合不斷改善,我們也從毛利率中獲益。我不希望上個季度我們工廠發生的一次性事件再次發生。

  • Christopher Danely - Analyst

    Christopher Danely - Analyst

  • What are utilization rates now? .

    現在的利用率是多少?。

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So I know you always like to ask me this question. They're increasing. We're not yet back to utilization levels we were obviously in the pandemic era, nor do we expect to get all the way there.

    所以我知道你總是喜歡問我這個問題。它們正在增加。我們尚未恢復到大流行時期的利用率水平,也不期望完全恢復到那種水平。

  • But we are continuing to increase, as I mentioned, other than this one-time hiccup, which is now behind us. We are back increasing as -- given the growth we're seeing and the planned starts in the factories, we're getting higher utilizations.

    但正如我所提到的那樣,除了這次的挫折之外,我們還在繼續增長,但這次挫折現在已經過去了。鑑於我們看到的成長和工廠計劃開工,我們的利用率正在提高,因此我們又開始增加產量。

  • Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think as well, we have talked many, many times about the CapEx that we've deployed to strengthen the resiliency of the internal fabs at ADI. So we have built -- we've more than doubled the footprint of the internal fabs that support largely the industrial business.

    我認為,我們已經多次討論過我們為增強 ADI 內部晶圓廠的彈性而部署的資本支出。因此,我們建造了——將主要支援工業業務的內部晶圓廠的佔地面積擴大了一倍以上。

  • So we're absorbing that cost. And as the industrial business continues to increase strength, that absorption strengthens as well. So I think you've got to bear those things in mind.

    因此,我們正在承擔這筆費用。隨著工業業務實力不斷增強,這種吸收能力也會增強。所以我認為你必須記住這些事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

  • Joseph Moore - Analyst

    Joseph Moore - Analyst

  • A couple of minutes ago, you talked about seeing some supply limitations in aerospace and defense. And I wanted to just follow up on that and talk -- ask where those supply constraints might be coming from. And are you seeing any supply constraints in any other part of your industrial business as things get stronger? .

    幾分鐘前,您談到了航空航太和國防領域的一些供應限制。我只是想跟進這個問題並談談——詢問這些供應限制可能來自哪裡。隨著情況的轉好,您是否發現工業業務的其他部分也存在供應限制?。

  • Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, I think -- we've just seen a tremendous upsurge in the man. It just takes time to lay in the capacity, the tooling in the aerospace and defense area. And it's a highly diversified business with an incredible array of product complexities. So it's really just the case of each quarter, we're laying in more capacity.

    不,我認為——我們剛剛看到了這個人的巨大進步。只是需要時間來建立航空航太和國防領域的產能和工具。這是一個高度多元化的業務,產品複雜程度令人難以置信。所以實際上每季的情況都是如此,我們都在增加產能。

  • But the demand keeps interesting. It's a very, very high-quality problem that we have. Demand is surging ahead of our ability to manufacture right now. But we've been laying into CapEx, the tools to make sure that we capture the opportunity.

    但需求仍然很有趣。我們面臨的是一個非常非常高品質的問題。目前,需求量正在急劇增長,超出了我們的生產能力。但我們一直在投入資本支出,以確保我們抓住機會。

  • And pretty much everything we do there is sole sourced. I mean, these are proprietary products. And we see this -- we've increased our footprint with an internal factory that's very, very important to the manufacturing of our aerospace and defense solutions. So we've been tooling that facility as well.

    我們在那裡做的幾乎所有事情都是單一來源的。我的意思是,這些都是專有產品。我們看到這一點——我們透過內部工廠擴大了我們的足跡,這對於我們的航空航太和國防解決方案的製造非常非常重要。因此我們也一直在完善該設施。

  • So I think generally speaking, we're in better and better position. But really the problem, it's a high-quality problem of surging demand.

    所以我認為整體來說,我們的情況越來越好。但真正的問題是需求激增的高品質問題。

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So I'll put a finer point on it for you, Joe. We're actually deploying tools into the aerospace and defense manufacturing in the third and fourth -- some in the third quarter and more in the fourth quarter to alleviate some of the stresses just described. And from an overall business perspective, we certainly have supply right now to cover all of the near-term demand that we have on the books.

    是的。喬,我來給你更詳細地解釋。我們實際上在第三季度和第四季度向航空航天和國防製造業部署了一些工具——一些在第三季度,更多的在第四季度,以緩解剛才描述的一些壓力。從整體業務角度來看,我們現在的供應肯定能夠滿足所有近期需求。

  • Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Vincent Roche - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think the rest of the industrial business is in good shape overall regarding supply.

    我認為其餘工業企業的供應整體狀況良好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.

    約書亞·布查爾特(Joshua Buchalter),考恩公司 (TD Cowen) 的董事。

  • Joshua Buchalter - Analyst

    Joshua Buchalter - Analyst

  • Congrats on the good results. I apologize for being nitpicky in an objectively good quarter. I did want to ask about gross margins, though.

    恭喜你取得好成績。我為自己在一個客觀上好的季度吹毛求疵而道歉。不過我確實想問毛利率。

  • I think a couple of quarters ago, you had mentioned $2.7 billion being the level at which you hit 70% gross margin. It looks like that's seemingly around $3 billion. I guess -- can you maybe walk through what's changed and how we should think about follow through from here going forward?

    我想幾個季度前,您曾提到 27 億美元是達到 70% 毛利率的水平。看起來好像是 30 億美元左右。我想——您能否介紹一下發生了哪些變化以及我們應該如何考慮從現在開始繼續跟進?

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And we have talked about this a lot, and I think that the part two of what we've said all along is getting to $2.7 billion and getting back to a 70% margin would require us to get back to a more normal industrial mix. So near term, as you saw, we're only 45% industrial. When we were building all those models, we were a much larger percentage. So we have said we would need to have that mix.

    我們已經多次討論過這個問題,我認為我們一直在說的第二部分是達到 27 億美元並恢復 70% 的利潤率需要我們恢復到更正常的產業結構。因此,如您所見,短期內我們的工業化程度只有 45%。當我們建立所有這些模型時,我們所佔的比例要大得多。所以我們說過我們需要這種混合。

  • And obviously, the mix is shifting as the industrial grows. And if you look to our -- where we expect our Q4 to go with the industrial growth we've talked about, we will probably exit Q4 with more like a 49% industrial mix, which is part of the reason we think we'll get back into that 70% range in our fourth quarter. So it is -- as we talked at the beginning a little bit, it is also mix constrained given the industrial piece is our most profitable business.

    顯然,隨著工業的發展,這種結構也在改變。如果你看一下我們——我們預計第四季度的工業成長情況,我們可能會以 49% 左右的工業結構結束第四季度,這也是我們認為第四季將回到 70% 左右範圍的原因之一。所以,正如我們一開始談到的,由於工業部分是我們最賺錢的業務,所以它也受到組合限制。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

  • Ross Seymore - Research Analyst

    Ross Seymore - Research Analyst

  • Just wanted to pivot over to the OpEx side of things. Any color for your fiscal fourth quarter? And probably more importantly, as we look into fiscal '26, I know you guys have a big variable component to your OpEx. This year, it looks like it's up, I don't know, high teens and something like that in fiscal '25. Any color on how the FX would relate to revenues in fiscal '26?

    只是想轉向 OpEx 方面的事情。您的財政第四季有什麼顏色嗎?也許更重要的是,當我們回顧 26 財年時,我知道你們的營運支出中有一個很大的可變部分。今年,看起來,這個數字有所上升,我不知道,在 25 財年將達到十幾歲左右的水平。有沒有關於外匯與 26 財年收入之間關係的詳細資訊?

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So yeah. So from a fiscal '25 perspective, assuming the midpoint for Q4, we expect we'll deliver about 100 basis points of operating leverage versus '24, which I feel very good about.

    是的。因此,從 25 財年的角度來看,假設第四季度的中點,我們預期與 24 年相比,我們的營運槓桿將增加約 100 個基點,我對此感到非常滿意。

  • Because when we started the year, knowing we were going to have a pretty significant headwind on the variable comp, we thought we might have a pretty flat operating leverage year. But we are going to deliver some additional leverage.

    因為當我們開始新的一年時,我們知道我們將在可變薪酬方面面臨相當大的阻力,我們認為今年的經營槓桿可能會相當平穩。但我們將提供一些額外的槓桿。

  • Now a lot of that is coming from the gross margin expansion, as we've talked about. Because of variable, our OpEx is growing at a higher rate than we would normally expect. And that is as we've talked about, right?

    正如我們所討論的,其中很大一部分來自於毛利率的擴張。由於變量,我們的營運支出成長速度高於我們通常預期的水平。這就是我們所談論的,對嗎?

  • In the prior year, given our bonus pays on revenue growth and profitability and the fact that '24 had no revenue growth and margins were muted, bonus was very low, which was part of the reason we were able to hold our 40% operating margin in the trough year. Now with a return to significant growth, our variable comp is normalizing to a much higher level from a very low payout in the prior year.

    上一年,由於我們的獎金是根據收入增長和盈利能力支付的,而且 24 年沒有收入增長,利潤率也很低,所以獎金很低,這也是我們能夠在低谷年保持 40% 的營業利潤率的原因之一。現在,隨著恢復顯著增長,我們的浮動薪酬已從上一年的非常低的支出正常化到更高的水平。

  • So if you look forward to '26, I would expect that acceleration piece that we saw from the variable comp to decline. We obviously expect to have variable comp in a growth year. But given the new baseline of '26, we would expect in the revenue growth that we would get some continued leverage as the operating -- as the variable won't increase as radically as it did '24 to '25.

    因此,如果你展望 26 年,我預計我們從變數補償中看到的加速度部分會下降。我們顯然預期在成長年份會有可變的薪酬。但考慮到 26 年的新基準,我們預計收入成長將獲得一些持續的槓桿作用,因為變數不會像 24 年至 25 年那樣大幅增加。

  • And excuse me -- obviously, all of these points of view are contingent on revenue growing, which we're assuming from a top line perspective.

    抱歉,顯然,所有這些觀點都取決於收入成長,這是我們從營收角度假設的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

    克里斯‧卡索(Chris Caso),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • Just a question on business in China right now. And you mentioned in some of your earlier comments that China auto was strong last quarter. Could you give us some sense of what the totality of the China business look like? And again, in that case, even outside of auto, is there any fear of any pull forwards within that business or any anomalies that you may have seen within the China business in the last quarter?

    現在我只想問一個關於中國業務的問題。您之前在評論中提到,上個季度中國汽車市場表現強勁。您能否向我們介紹一下中國業務的整體情況?那麼,在這種情況下,即使在汽車行業之外,是否擔心該行業會出現任何提前下滑,或者上個季度在中國業務中可能出現任何異常情況?

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So obviously, as we've talked about China, is a very competitive place for us. I continue to be very confident in our ability to win and to grow in China, which we've done for decades.

    當然。顯然,正如我們所說,中國對我們來說是一個競爭非常激烈的地方。我對我們在中國取得成功和發展的能力仍然充滿信心,幾十年來我們一直都是這樣做的。

  • Now if you think about how we're positioned in the market, right, we tend to get a premium for our performance. And that's the innovation premium you've all heard me talk about. Where performance matters, they're going to continue to pick us, right, which is why we tend to get higher ASPs.

    現在,如果你想想我們在市場中的定位,對的,我們往往會因為我們的表現而獲得溢價。這就是你們聽我談論的創新溢價。在性能至關重要的地方,他們會繼續選擇我們,對吧,這就是為什麼我們往往能獲得更高的平均售價。

  • It also makes it very challenging for those that make products that are good enough to compete with us in that market. So we feel -- from a competitive perspective, we feel very well.

    這也為那些生產出足夠好的產品並能在市場上與我們競爭的企業帶來了極大的挑戰。因此,從競爭的角度來看,我們感覺非常好。

  • Obviously, the other thing for us is significant is scale is really important, especially in Analog with the broad base of components. We've got six decades of experience building that with 70,000 SKUs. It's really -- especially through an industrial given the diverse nature of that product.

    顯然,對我們來說另一件重要的事情是規模非常重要,特別是在具有廣泛組件基礎的模擬領域。我們擁有 60 年的建設經驗,擁有 70,000 個 SKU。確實如此——尤其是透過工業,考慮到產品的多樣性。

  • As we've talked about now for a number of quarters, China has been leading our recovery, right? We've talked about achieving record auto results this year. We had record design wins in '24. We've continued growth in design wins in '25. And our outlook for China is pretty positive over the next three to five years based on the things we're seeing here.

    正如我們幾個季度以來所討論的那樣,中國一直在引領我們的經濟復甦,對嗎?我們談到了今年要實現創紀錄的汽車表現。我們在 2024 年取得了創紀錄的設計勝利。2025 年,我們的設計成果持續成長。根據我們所看到的情況,我們對未來三到五年中國經濟的前景持相當樂觀的態度。

  • Now it is interesting. We spent a lot of time talking about how strong China auto is. We've started to see year-over-year growth in China across all of the industrial end markets. But outside of auto, all of those other end markets are well off their prior peaks.

    現在很有趣。我們花了很多時間談論中國汽車有多強大。我們開始看到中國所有工業終端市場都呈現年成長。但除了汽車市場之外,所有其他終端市場都遠低於先前的峰值。

  • So north of 35% at least, and some of them are still 50% off their peaks. So we think there's still runway there for us from a medium and long-term perspective as that market continues to rebound.

    因此,至少在 35% 以上,其中一些仍比峰值低 50%。因此,我們認為,從中長期來看,隨著市場持續反彈,我們仍有發展空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Richard Puccio, for any closing remarks.

    現在我想將電話轉回給理查普喬先生,請他做最後發言。

  • Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Richard Puccio - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • All right. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. And with that, a copy of this transcript will be available on our website, and all available reconciliations and additional information can also be found at the Quarterly Results section of our Investor Relations site at investor.analog.com. Thanks again for joining us and your continued interest in Analog Devices.

    好的。感謝大家今天早上加入我們。屆時,本報告的副本將在我們的網站上發布,所有可用的對帳表及其他資訊也可在我們投資者關係網站 investor.analog.com 的季度業績板塊找到。再次感謝您的關注以及對 ADI 公司的持續關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。今天的 ADI 公司電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。