科磊 (KLAC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Doug, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation March Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions).

午安.我叫道格，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加 KLA Corporation 2024 年 3 月季度收益電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員說明）。

I will now turn the call over to Kevin Kessel, Vice President of Investor Relations and Market Analytics. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和市場分析副總裁 Kevin Kessel。請繼續。

Thank you for joining our earnings call to discuss the March 2024 results and the June quarter outlook. I am joined by our CEO, Rick Wallace; and our CFO, Bren Higgins. We will discuss today's results released after the market close and available on our IR website, along with the supplemental materials.

感謝您參加我們的財報電話會議，討論 2024 年 3 月的業績和 6 月的季度前景。我們的執行長 Rick Wallace 也加入了我的行列。和我們的財務長布倫·希金斯。我們將討論今天收盤後發布的結果以及補充資料，這些結果可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。

Today's discussion and metrics are presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. All full year references are to calendar years. Earnings materials contain a detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results. KLA's IR website also contains future investor events, presentations, corporate governance information and links to the SEC filings, including our most recent annual report and quarterly reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q.

除非另有說明，今天的討論和指標均基於非公認會計準則財務基礎。所有全年參考均指日曆年。收益材料包含 GAAP 與非 GAAP 業績的詳細調整表。 KLA 的 IR 網站還包含未來的投資者活動、簡報、公司治理資訊以及 SEC 文件的鏈接，包括我們最新的年度報告和 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格的季度報告。

Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the disclosures of risk factors in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

我們今天的評論受到美國證券交易委員會文件中揭露的風險因素所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。任何前瞻性陳述，包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述，都面臨這些風險，KLA 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述一定會實現。我們的實際結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中的預測有很大差異。

Rick will begin the call with some introductory comments followed by Bren with additional financial highlights, including our outlook. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Rick Wallace. Rick?

里克將首先發表一些介紹性評論，然後布倫將介紹其他財務要點，包括我們的前景。我現在將把電話轉給我們的執行長里克華萊士。瑞克？

Thank you, Kevin. Today, I will review KLA's March quarter results, main highlights and address the new market share reports as well as a broader industry outlook.

謝謝你，凱文。今天，我將回顧 KLA 3 月季度的業績、主要亮點，並討論新的市場份額報告以及更廣泛的行業前景。

KLA's revenue of $2.36 billion was above the midpoint of our guidance range. EPS results, both non-GAAP and GAAP, were above the midpoint of the adjusted guidance we provided on March 18 in conjunction with the decision to exit the flat panel business.

KLA 的收入為 23.6 億美元，高於我們指引範圍的中點。每股盈餘（非 GAAP 和 GAAP）結果均高於我們在 3 月 18 日決定退出平板顯示器業務時提供的調整後指引的中點。

Market conditions have stabilized, and we expect our business to improve as we progress through the year. We're encouraged by the improvement in our customers' business across multiple end markets, which is driving discussions with our customers about future opportunities for leading-edge capacity investments.

市場狀況已經穩定，我們預計我們的業務將隨著今年的進展而改善。我們對客戶在多個終端市場的業務的改善感到鼓舞，這正在推動與客戶討論領先產能投資的未來機會。

At the start of each year, new global market share reports are published by third parties that provide additional insights into the state of our industry. These reports show consistent, long-term KLA market leadership in process control and demonstrate the strength of our diverse portfolio that offers our customers unique capabilities to address their technology challenges while meeting their productivity demands. This year, following significant gain in 2022, KLA's 2023 market share declined by nearly 1%, driven primarily by a loss in access to approximately 10% of the China market as a result of U.S. government export controls.

每年年初，第三方都會發布新的全球市場份額報告，為我們的行業狀況提供更多見解。這些報告展示了KLA 在製程控制方面持續、長期的市場領先地位，並展示了我們多元化產品組合的實力，這些產品組合為我們的客戶提供了獨特的能力，以解決他們的技術挑戰，同時滿足他們的生產力需求。繼 2022 年大幅成長之後，今年 KLA 的 2023 年市佔率下降了近 1%，主要原因是美國政府的出口管制導致其失去了約 10% 的中國市場份額。

That said, KLA's consistent market leadership in process control and some of the most critical markets in WFE reflect the success of our customer-focused strategies and the power of our portfolio. We're confident that KLA's quarterly revenues bottomed in the March quarter as expressed in our prior earnings call.

也就是說，KLA 在過程控制和 WFE 一些最關鍵的市場中持續的市場領導地位反映了我們以客戶為中心的策略的成功以及我們產品組合的力量。我們相信，KLA 的季度收入將在三月季度觸底，正如我們先前的財報電話會議中所表達的那樣。

In foundry/logic, simultaneous investments across multiple nodes and slowly rising capital intensity continue to be a long-term tailwind. Additionally, the increasing complexity in advanced packaging applications for AI and other advanced technologies drive demand for both our process tool and process control products. Overall demand growth, along with increasing technology requirements will drive the need for more capability from inspection and metrology systems.

在代工/邏輯領域，跨多個節點的同時投資和緩慢上升的資本密集度仍然是長期的推動力。此外，人工智慧和其他先進技術的先進封裝應用日益複雜，推動了對我們的製程工具和製程控制產品的需求。整體需求的成長以及技術要求的提高將推動對檢測和計量系統功能的需求。

Our advanced packaging business will generate approximately $400 million in run rate in 2024, and we expect this business to achieve growth rates meaningfully above the growth rate of WFE going forward.

我們的先進封裝業務到 2024 年將產生約 4 億美元的運作率，我們預計該業務未來的成長率將明顯高於 WFE 的成長率。

In services, our business grew to $590 million in the quarter, up 4% sequentially and 12% year-over-year. Quarterly free cash flow was $838 million, and the last 12 months free cash flow was $3.1 billion with a free cash flow margin of 32% over the period.

在服務方面，本季我們的業務成長至 5.9 億美元，季增 4%，年增 12%。季度自由現金流為 8.38 億美元，過去 12 個月自由現金流為 31 億美元，同期自由現金流率為 32%。

KLA's quarterly results continue to demonstrate our sustained process control leadership and the success of our broad portfolio and product strategies. Customers continue to prioritize and invest in leading-edge technology transition and this aligns with KLA's highest value product offerings. In this industry environment, KLA will continue to focus on supporting customer requirements, executing on product road maps and preparing for growth at the leading edge.

KLA 的季度業績繼續證明了我們持續的過程控制領先地位以及我們廣泛的產品組合和產品策略的成功。客戶繼續優先考慮並投資於領先的技術轉型，這與 KLA 的最高價值產品一致。在這種行業環境下，KLA 將繼續專注於支援客戶需求、執行產品路線圖並為領先優勢的成長做好準備。

Bren will now discuss the financials and our outlook further.

布倫現在將進一步討論財務狀況和我們的前景。

Thank you, Rick. KLA's quarterly results demonstrated a consistent execution of our global team. Despite the challenges and complexity of the current industry environment, KLA continues to show resourcefulness and the ability to adapt to meeting customers' changing requirements.

謝謝你，瑞克。 KLA 的季度業績證明了我們全球團隊的一貫執行力。儘管當前產業環境充滿挑戰和複雜性，KLA 仍繼續展現出足智多謀和適應客戶不斷變化的需求的能力。

Quarterly revenue was $2.36 billion, above the guidance midpoint of $2.3 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $5.26, above the guidance midpoint of $4.83. GAAP diluted EPS was $4.43, above the guidance midpoint of $4.06. In the March quarter, both non-GAAP and GAAP diluted EPS were negatively impacted by a $62 million charge for excess and obsolete inventory related to the company's strategic decision to exit the flat panel display business announced on March 18. This charge had a $0.40 impact on EPS. Excluding this item, diluted non-GAAP EPS would have been $5.66.

季度營收為 23.6 億美元，高於 23 億美元的指導中位數。非 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益為 5.26 美元，高於 4.83 美元的指引中位數。 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 4.43 美元，高於 4.06 美元的指引中位數。在3 月季度，非GAAP 和GAAP 攤薄後每股收益均受到6,200 萬美元超額和過時庫存費用的負面影響，該費用與公司3 月18 日宣布的退出平板顯示器業務的戰略決定有關。產生了0.40 美元的影響在每股收益上。不計此項目，稀釋後非 GAAP 每股收益將為 5.66 美元。

Non-GAAP gross margin was 59.8%, above the top end of the revised guidance range. Excluding the FPD charge, non-GAAP gross margin would have been 62.4% and roughly flat sequentially. Non-GAAP operating expenses were flat sequentially at $544 million comprised of $320 million in R&D and $224 million in SG&A. Non-GAAP EPS at the 13.5% guided tax rate would have been $0.04 higher or $5.30.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 59.8%，高於修訂後指引範圍的上限。不計 FPD 費用，非 GAAP 毛利率將為 62.4%，與上一季大致持平。非 GAAP 營運支出與上一季持平，為 5.44 億美元，其中包括 3.2 億美元的研發支出和 2.24 億美元的銷售管理費用。以 13.5% 指導稅率計算的非 GAAP 每股盈餘將增加 0.04 美元，即 5.30 美元。

Non-GAAP operating margin was 36.8%. Non-GAAP other income and expense, net, was a $34 million expense and the quarterly non-GAAP effective tax rate was 14.2%. Quarterly non-GAAP net income was $715 million, GAAP net income was $602 million. Cash flow from operations was $910 million, and free cash flow was $838 million.

非 GAAP 營運利潤率為 36.8%。非 GAAP 其他收入和支出淨額為 3,400 萬美元，季度非 GAAP 有效稅率為 14.2%。季度非 GAAP 淨利為 7.15 億美元，GAAP 淨利為 6.02 億美元。營運現金流為 9.1 億美元，自由現金流為 8.38 億美元。

The breakdown of revenue by reportable segments, end markets and major products and regions can be found within the shareholder letter and slides.

按可報告部門、終端市場以及主要產品和地區劃分的收入細目可在股東信函和幻燈片中找到。

Turning to the balance sheet. KLA ended the quarter with $4.3 billion in total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. Debt of $6.7 billion and a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by strong investment-grade ratings from all 3 agencies. On February 1, KLA issued $500 million of 4.7% senior notes due in 2034 and $250 million of 4.95% senior notes due in 2052. The company expects to use the net proceeds from the notes offering for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of outstanding indebtedness at or prior to maturity.

轉向資產負債表。截至本季末，KLA 的現金、現金等價物和有價證券總額為 43 億美元。債務規模達 67 億美元，債券期限結構靈活且有吸引力，並得到所有 3 家機構強大的投資等級評級的支持。 2 月1 日，KLA 發行了5 億美元、2034 年到期、利率為4.7% 的優先票據和2.5 億美元、2052 年到期、利率為4.95% 的優先票據。收益用於一般公司用途，包括償還未償還債務。

Moving to our outlook. We remain encouraged by constructive customer discussions around their future investment plans, which are further supported by recent reports of an improving end market demand environment and customer profitability. Consistent with these industry trends, as we indicated in last quarter, we believe our business bottomed from a revenue perspective in the March quarter and looking ahead through the balance of calendar '24, growth is resuming in the June quarter, and we expect business levels to improve as we progress through the year.

轉向我們的展望。我們仍然對客戶圍繞未來投資計劃進行的建設性討論感到鼓舞，最近關於終端市場需求環境和客戶盈利能力改善的報告進一步支持了這些討論。與這些行業趨勢一致，正如我們在上個季度指出的那樣，我們相信，從收入的角度來看，我們的業務在3 月份季度觸底，並通過日曆'24 的餘額展望未來，增長將在6月季度恢復，我們預計業務水平隨著我們在這一年中的進步而不斷改進。

For calendar 2024, our high-level outlook remains unchanged. We still expect WFE demand to be roughly flat to modestly up from 2023 and that the second half of the calendar year will be stronger than the first half. KLA's June quarter guidance is as follows: revenue of $2.5 billion, plus or minus $125 million, foundry/logic revenue from semiconductor customers is forecasted to be approximately 82% and memory is expected to be 18% of semi-process control systems revenue. Within memory, DRAM is expected to be about 78% of the segment mix and NAND the remaining 22%.

對於 2024 年，我們的高層展望保持不變。我們仍然預計 WFE 需求與 2023 年相比將大致持平或小幅增長，並且下半年將強於上半年。 KLA 6 月季度指引如下：營收為 25 億美元，正負 1.25 億美元，來自半導體客戶的代工/邏輯收入預計約為 82%，記憶體預計將佔半製程控制系統收入的 18%。在記憶體領域，DRAM 預計將佔細分市場的 78% 左右，而 NAND 則佔剩餘的 22%。

Non-GAAP gross margin is forecasted to be in the range of 61.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point based on product mix expectations. For calendar 2024, based on current industry outlook, top line growth expectations, higher forecasted growth in services and expected systems product mix, we are modeling non-GAAP gross margins to be relatively stable around the mid 61% range. Variability quarter-to-quarter is typically driven by product mix fluctuations. Non-GAAP operating expenses are forecasted in the June quarter to be approximately $550 million as our merit adjustment process occurred in the March quarter.

根據產品組合預期，非 GAAP 毛利率預計為 61.5% 上下浮動 1 個百分點。對於 2024 年，根據目前的產業前景、營收成長預期、服務和預期系統產品組合的較高預測成長，我們預期非 GAAP 毛利率將相對穩定在 61% 的中間範圍左右。季度與季度之間的變化通常是由產品組合波動引起的。由於我們的績效調整流程發生在 3 月季度，因此預計 6 月季度的非 GAAP 營運費用約為 5.5 億美元。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect $5 million to $10 million incremental growth in quarterly operating expenses for the remainder of calendar 2024, supported by expected revenue growth.

展望未來，在預期營收成長的支持下，我們繼續預期 2024 年剩餘時間內季度營運支出將增加 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元。

Other model assumptions for the June quarter include non-GAAP other income and expense net of approximately $38 million expense. GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be $5.66, plus or minus $0.60. And a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $6.07, plus or minus $0.60. EPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 135.4 million shares.

6 月季度的其他模型假設包括非 GAAP 其他收入和支出（扣除約 3,800 萬美元的支出）。 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益預計為 5.66 美元，上下浮動 0.60 美元。非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 6.07 美元，正負 0.60 美元。每股盈餘指引基於約 1.354 億股的完全稀釋後股數。

In conclusion, as we articulated 12 weeks ago, we are encouraged with the indicators of improvement ranging from our customers' conversations to the public reports over the past few months. KLA remains focused on delivering a differentiated product portfolio that anticipates customers' technology road map requirements and drives our longer-term growth expectations. With the KLA operating model guiding best-in-class execution, KLA continues to implement strategic objectives, which are geared to drive outperformance.

總而言之，正如我們 12 週前所闡述的那樣，我們對過去幾個月從客戶對話到公開報告等一系列改進指標感到鼓舞。 KLA 仍然專注於提供差異化的產品組合，預測客戶的技術路線圖要求並推動我們的長期成長預期。憑藉 KLA 營運模式指導一流的執行，KLA 繼續實施旨在推動卓越績效的策略目標。

With a focus on customer success, delivering innovative and differentiated solutions and operational excellence, KLA is able to deliver industry-leading financial and free cash flow performance and return capital consistently. The past few years have solidified our confidence in the increasing importance of process control and enabling technology advancements and optimizing yield across a high semiconductor device design mix, volume production environment. This bodes well for KLA's long-term growth outlook as near-term industry demand trends are continuing to improve.

KLA 專注於客戶成功、提供創新和差異化解決方案以及卓越運營，能夠始終如一地提供行業領先的財務和自由現金流績效和資本回報。過去幾年，我們更加堅定了對製程控制日益增長的重要性的信心，以及在高半導體裝置設計組合和批量生產環境中實現技術進步和優化產量的信心。這對 KLA 的長期成長前景來說是個好兆頭，因為近期行業需求趨勢正在持續改善。

In alignment with this, KLA's business is improving and the long-term secular trends driving semiconductor industry demand and investments in WFE remain intact in both legacy and leading-edge markets. That concludes the prepared remarks. Kevin, let's begin the Q&A.

與此一致的是，KLA 的業務正在改善，推動半導體產業需求和 WFE 投資的長期趨勢在傳統市場和前沿市場都保持不變。準備好的發言到此結束。凱文，讓我們開始問答。

Thank you, Bren. Operator, can you please provide instructions for.

謝謝你，布倫。接線員，請您提供說明。

(Operator Instructions) We'll now take our first question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們現在將接受摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 提出的第一個問題。

Last year and first half of this year was more mature node by spending maybe more infrastructure focused as well. As you step into the second half of this year, it does feel like advanced node momentum is starting to accelerate right, both foundry and logic and memory and -- appears to be reflected in your confidence on improving spending outlook for this calendar year. Given your relatively longer lead time, your critical role in enabling these advanced technology migrations, like how are customer discussions, the initial forecast visibility and outlook for calendar '25 shaping up for the team? I mean I assume it's a more advanced technology-driven profile next year, which should be good for the team, but wanted to get your views.

去年和今年上半年是更成熟的節點，可能也花了更多的基礎建設費用。當您步入今年下半年時，確實感覺先進節點的勢頭開始加速，無論是代工、邏輯還是存儲器，而且似乎反映在您對改善本日曆年支出前景的信心中。鑑於您的交付時間相對較長，您在實現這些先進技術遷移方面發揮關鍵作用，例如客戶討論、初始預測可見性以及團隊對日曆 '25 的展望如何？我的意思是，我認為明年將是一個更先進的技術驅動型配置文件，這應該對團隊有好處，但想聽聽您的意見。

Great. Harlan, thanks for the question. This is Rick. Absolutely, we are having different kind of discussions now than we've had for a while with our leading-edge logic and memory customers. As they prepare for the ramp and we're seeing increased demand for -- they are seeing increased demand, they're talking about tool availability, scheduling of resources, making sure that they don't get behind, really conversations we haven't had for a while.

偉大的。哈倫，謝謝你的提問。這是瑞克。當然，我們現在與領先的邏輯和記憶體客戶進行的討論與我們一段時間以來的討論不同。當他們為升級做準備時，我們看到需求增加——他們看到需求增加，他們正在談論工具可用性、資源調度、確保他們不會落後，我們確實沒有進行過對話有一段時間了。

I think the build-outs are still -- as we indicated, we see kind of stability with rising demand through the year, but the real build-out is going to come in '25 and beyond that as we see some of the conversations we're having. So really good indicators, leading indicators, design starts, advanced node discussions, R&D work. So we feel pretty good about the setup.

我認為擴建仍然——正如我們所指出的，隨著全年需求的不斷增長，我們看到了某種程度的穩定性，但真正的擴建將在 25 年及之後出現，正如我們看到的一些對話正在擁有。所以真正好的指標、領先指標、設計啟動、高階節點討論、研發工作。所以我們對這個設置感覺很好。

Great. And did you see the continued growth in the services business with industry utilizations clearly on an upward trajectory. You've got record number of tools coming off warranty customers, I think, wanting more value-added services and offerings just given the complexity challenges ahead? Has the view on the services growth profile improved relative to the last earnings call? I know you talked about being at the upper end of that sort of 12% to 14% sort of target range this year on the last call. Has that changed?

偉大的。您是否看到服務業務持續成長，產業利用率明顯呈上升趨勢？我認為，考慮到未來的複雜性挑戰，您從保固客戶那裡獲得的工具數量創下了紀錄，想要更多增值服務和產品嗎？與上次財報電話會議相比，對服務業成長狀況的看法是否有所改善？我知道您在上次電話會議中談到今年處於 12% 至 14% 目標範圍的上限。那改變了嗎？

I would say -- Harlan, it's Bren. I would say, look, we're continuing to see very strong momentum, utilization rates are improving. We had a lot of tools come off of warranty, and they go into contract and our conversion rate is about 95%. So that's very positive. Customers are extending lives of the systems, which bodes well for long-term service growth overall. So I think as we track here, I think we feel pretty good about the range that we have, and we're closer to the upper end for sure than the lower end as we move forward over the next few years.

我會說－－哈倫，是布倫。我想說，看，我們繼續看到非常強勁的勢頭，利用率正在提高。我們有很多工具已經過了保固期，並且簽訂了合同，我們的轉換率約為 95%。所以這是非常積極的。客戶正在延長系統的使用壽命，這對整體服務的長期成長來說是個好兆頭。因此，我認為，當我們在這裡追蹤時，我認為我們對現有的範圍感覺非常好，隨著我們在未來幾年的前進，我們肯定比低端更接近高端。

We'll take our next question from C.J. Muse with Cantor Fitzgerald.

我們將回答 C.J. Muse 和 Cantor Fitzgerald 提出的下一個問題。

I guess, first question, a near-term question on the mix you expect for June, which a pretty massive shift to foundry/logic from memory. So, I guess, as part of that, can you speak to some of the underlying drivers? And within that, do you see perhaps a pickup from domestic China memory beyond the June quarter? Or I think in the prior quarter, you talked about revenue rec pushed to the June quarter. So curious about the moving parts there.

我想，第一個問題是關於您對 6 月的預期組合的近期問題，這是從記憶到鑄造/邏輯的相當大的轉變。所以，我想，作為其中的一部分，你能和一些潛在的驅動因素談談嗎？其中，您是否認為六月季度之後中國國內內存可能有所回升？或者我認為在上一季度，您談到了將收入推至六月季度。對那裡的活動部件很好奇。

Yes. I would say as far as China memory goes, it's more first half heavy than second half, while we're having very positive conversations with our customers on the memory front, as Rick indicated, in terms of long-term plans, we're seeing their businesses now improve. We're seeing profitability and cash flow starting to improve. But we don't expect any significant investments as we move through the rest of the year. Nothings could change. But I think that the profile, it might tick up a little bit in the second half overall, non-China but I don't see it changing in a real meaningful way.

是的。我想說，就中國內存而言，上半年比下半年更重，而我們正在與客戶就內存方面進行非常積極的對話，正如 Rick 指出的那樣，就長期計劃而言，我們正在看到他們的業務現在有所改善。我們看到獲利能力和現金流開始改善。但我們預計今年剩餘時間不會有任何重大投資。一切都無法改變。但我認為下半年整體情況可能會上升，非中國地區，但我認為它不會以真正有意義的方式改變。

If you look back at our business, we were a little bit over 70%, maybe logic/foundry in 2023. And I think we're going to be right around 70%. I think it's going to be pretty similar overall mix this year.

如果你回顧我們的業務，我們的比例略高於 70%，也許到 2023 年是邏輯/代工。我認為今年的整體組合將會非常相似。

Excellent. And then in terms of your commentary around accelerating top line revenues throughout the remainder of calendar '24. I guess, can you speak to the main drivers there as it relates to perhaps 2-nanometer pilot logic in Arizona handset-related EPC. What's really driving that? And is there sort of a percentage growth rate we should be thinking about half-on-half?

出色的。然後就您關於在 24 日曆年剩餘時間內加速營收成長的評論而言。我想，您能談談那裡的主要驅動因素嗎，因為它可能與亞利桑那州手機相關 EPC 中的 2 奈米引導邏輯有關。到底是什麼推動了這一點？我們是否應該考慮一半的成長率？

Yes. C.J., I think you covered most of them, right? We will see some early investment in 2-nanometer. You have the 3-nanometer build-out. You have the investment that you mentioned in Arizona. So those are all pretty good for logic/foundry segment. Right now, when I look at the overall business first half versus second half, I think the second half is high single digits versus the first half in that ballpark. We're not guiding, but I think it's going to end up in that range as we progress through the year.

是的。 C.J.，我想你涵蓋了大部分，對吧？我們將看到一些 2 奈米領域的早期投資。您擁有 3 奈米構建。你有你提到的在亞利桑那州的投資。所以這些對於邏輯/代工領域來說都非常好。現在，當我比較上半年和下半年的整體業務時，我認為下半年的個位數比上半年高。我們不是指導，但我認為隨著我們今年的進展，它最終會在這個範圍內。

On EPC front, I think it is a little bit stronger. You do have some seasonality in EPC in the first part of the year. But we'll see some improvement there, I think, as we move through the second half of the year as well. And of course, service is growing quarter-on-quarter. So you've got that effect as well.

在EPC方面，我認為它更強一些。今年上半年 EPC 確實存在一些季節性。但我認為，隨著下半年的到來，我們也會看到一些改善。當然，服務正在逐季度成長。所以你也有這樣的效果。

And we'll take our next question from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

I have two of them. One is, Rick or Bren, last quarter, you kind of said that for KLA, the overall calendar '24 revenues could grow mid-single digits based on WFE. And obviously, some of these expectations that mid-single digits (inaudible). Given that you do have some exposure on that side, I'm just kind of curious how to think about your overall revenue profile for this year -- year-over-year? And then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個。一個是，Rick 或 Bren，上個季度，您曾說過，根據 WFE，KLA 的 24 年日曆總收入可能會實現中個位數成長。顯然，其中一些預期只有個位數（聽不清楚）。鑑於您在這方面確實有一些曝光，我只是有點好奇如何考慮您今年的整體收入狀況——同比？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So -- and when you look at the WFE level and when we talk about a flat to modestly up. And that, I think, depends on your view of WFE as everybody adds it up differently. Our view is that WFE was probably $90 billion to $91 billion, and then it's slightly up from there -- or flat to slightly up from there in terms of how we're looking at this year.

是的。所以——當你看看 WFE 水平時，當我們談論持平時，就會適度上升。我認為，這取決於您對 WFE 的看法，因為每個人的加法都不同。我們的觀點是，WFE 可能為 900 億至 910 億美元，然後略有上升，或者從我們對今年的看法來看，持平或略有上升。

So I think that's the way to think about it. Simply put, given that WFE is more or less flat to modestly up, that we were going to see this increase in service that we talked about, we're going to see some modest improvement in EPC. And we've seen some improvement given the outperformance we saw in March, the incremental guide into June in our semi PC business.

所以我認為這就是思考這個問題的方式。簡而言之，鑑於 WFE 或多或少持平或略有上升，我們將看到我們談到的服務增加，我們將看到 EPC 略有改善。鑑於 3 月份的優異表現，我們已經看到了一些改善，這是我們半 PC 業務進入 6 月份的增量指南。

So I think overall, semi PC share in the overall market is probably going to be fairly consistent, maybe a little bit up from what we saw in '23. And all that translates into our semi PC business roughly performing mostly in line with where we think the market is going to be for this year.

因此，我認為總體而言，半 PC 在整個市場中的份額可能會相當穩定，可能比我們在 23 年看到的情況有所上升。所有這些都意味著我們的半個人電腦業務的表現大致與我們認為今年市場的情況一致。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then a quick follow-up on China. Given your long lead times, I'm kind of curious how do you think about China? You did say memory would be first [uprated] overall China revenues? And along the same path, if I back out the FPD gross margins from March to June is down 90 basis points Q-over-Q. You said it's product mix? Is it mainly from China? I'm just kind of curious on this.

知道了。知道了。這非常有幫助。然後是對中國的快速跟進。鑑於你們的交貨時間很長，我有點好奇你們如何看待中國？您確實說過內存將首先[提升]中國整體收入？同樣，如果我取消 3 月至 6 月的 FPD 毛利率，則環比下降 90 個基點。你說的是產品組合？主要是來自中國嗎？我只是對此有點好奇。

Yes. No, it's mostly product mix quarter-on-quarter, down from the FPD adjustment related to the inventory that we took related to the decision there. So it's mostly just product mix across our semi PC business. You do have some growth in service quarter-on-quarter and services is dilutive to the overall gross margin. We believe it's accretive to the operating margin, but the gross margin is a little dilutive. And then the rest is just the normal product mix we have across the portfolio. Different margin profiles across the portfolio. And so depending on what we're revenue in a given quarter, it can cause some fluctuation.

是的。不，這主要是季度環比的產品組合，低於我們與那裡的決定相關的庫存相關的 FPD 調整。因此，我們的半個人電腦業務主要是產品組合。服務確實比上一季有所增長，而且服務稀釋了整體毛利率。我們認為這會增加營業利潤，但毛利率會被稀釋。其餘的只是我們整個產品組合中的正常產品組合。整個投資組合的保證金情況不同。因此，根據我們在給定季度的收入，它可能會引起一些波動。

But I think the guidance range is appropriate, like we saw -- I think we guided somewhere around 61.5% last quarter. It came in above 62%, depending on how things end up revenuing as we engage with customers and ship systems, there's always room for upside, which is why we give the range that we give.

但我認為指導範圍是合適的，就像我們看到的那樣——我認為上個季度我們的指導範圍約為 61.5%。它達到了 62% 以上，這取決於我們與客戶和船舶系統互動時最終的收入情況，總是有上升空間，這就是我們給出這個範圍的原因。

So there's nothing really particular to actual customers. It's more about the product mix of all regions. It's more about the product mix of the products we're shipping and getting acceptance.

所以對於實際客戶來說沒有什麼特別的。更多的是關於所有地區的產品組合。更多的是關於我們正在運輸的產品的產品組合和獲得認可。

Is China [shipment] for the rest of the year, similar range or?

中國今年剩餘時間的[出貨量]是否處於類似範圍？

So China is interesting. I think it's probably flattish over the course of the year. Second half is more or less flattish with the first half. The mix is changing a bit in terms of the end market mix. But we see it as a percent of the total come down as we see most of the growth in the year coming from our non-China customers.

所以中國很有趣。我認為這一年的情況可能會持平。下半場與上半場或多或少持平。就終端市場組合而言，這種組合正在發生一些變化。但我們認為它佔總數的百分比有所下降，因為我們看到今年的大部分成長來自我們的非中國客戶。

We'll take our next question from Brian Chin with Stifel.

我們將回答 Brian Chin 和 Stifel 提出的下一個問題。

Ask a few questions. I guess, it is sort of asked earlier, but with all these CHIPS Act announcements continuing to roll in, has this solidified the timing or magnitude of any of the U.S. greenfields build-out? Or maybe what is your latest thinking on some of these projects?

問幾個問題。我想，這是早些時候有人問過的問題，但隨著所有這些《CHIPS 法案》的公告不斷推出，這是否鞏固了美國綠地建設的時間或規模？或者您對其中一些項目的最新想法是什麼？

Well, yes, there have been many announcements. It's exciting to see. But when you look at the timing for those projects, even, for example, the one that was announced today in New York, that one's quite a ways out. So I think the approval of the funding relative to the timing, the customers we talk to, they're excited about this, the chance to reshore under the U.S., but they're still building their capacity based on market demand.

嗯，是的，已經有很多公告了。很令人興奮。但當你看看這些項目的時間表時，即使是今天在紐約宣布的項目，你也會發現這是一條很長的出路。因此，我認為資金的批准與時間有關，與我們交談的客戶有關，他們對此感到興奮，有機會在美國回流，但他們仍在根據市場需求建立產能。

So it doesn't really affect the overall capacity investment. They're gauging that based on the overall demand. And I think what happens is -- it's the size of the investment in terms of how many wafer starts to add and what point is driven by the market. So we'd stick to the comments about when the -- what we seek for the business environment relatively independent of what location that the customers are choosing to make those investments.

所以這並不會真正影響整體產能投資。他們根據總體需求來衡量這一點。我認為所發生的情況是——投資的規模取決於開始增加多少晶圓以及市場驅動的點。因此，我們會堅持這樣的評論：我們所尋求的商業環境相對獨立於客戶選擇進行這些投資的地點。

Got it. That's fair. And then maybe I did notice that in the shareholder letter and on the call, you highlighted advanced packaging revenue could be around $400 million in calendar '24, what growth rate does that represent versus calendar '23? And then how would you size your served addressable market in advanced packaging, which I know certainly crosses, I guess, boundaries across your portfolio?

知道了。這還算公平。然後也許我確實注意到，在股東信中和電話會議中，您強調了 24 日曆年的先進封裝收入可能約為 4 億美元，與 23 日曆年相比，這代表了多少增長率？然後，您將如何確定您在先進封裝領域所服務的目標市場，我認為這肯定會跨越您的產品組合的界限？

Yes. So it's greater than 25%. So we're somewhere down in around [$300 million] in '23 -- a little over $300 million and close to $400 million expectation for '24. It's across a broad portfolio, right? We have process control, which we sell to those customers, which is inspection of metrology, but also process tools in our specialty semiconductor business. It's about 50-50 in terms of the contribution from each part of the portfolio. And I think on the go forward, we feel pretty excited about the opportunity to see a growth rate that's meaningfully faster than WFE.

是的。所以它大於25%。因此，23 年我們的營收大約下降了 [3 億美元]，略高於 3 億美元，而 24 年的預期接近 4 億美元。它涉及廣泛的投資組合，對嗎？我們向這些客戶出售製程管制，即計量檢查，但也有我們專業半導體業務中的流程工具。就投資組合各部分的貢獻而言，大約是50-50。我認為，展望未來，我們對有機會看到比 WFE 更快的成長率感到非常興奮。

Yes. And I think for opportunity, there's a couple of factors that are at play. One is the speed with which customers are accelerating their packaging efforts. The degree with which those are requiring leading edge. Our ability to make it make sense from a business standpoint, the packaging challenges really need to be leading edge. So there's still a number of packaging applications that are in markets that are served by lower-end competitors that we're not really competing for. So it has to do with how quickly the new technologies come on, but this has been an increased conversation in meetings that we've been having with leading customers for the last year or so. It was already talked about, but it's accelerating.

是的。我認為就機會而言，有幾個因素在起作用。一是客戶加快包裝工作的速度。那些需要領先優勢的程度。從商業角度來看，我們有能力使其有意義，包裝挑戰確實需要處於領先地位。因此，市場上仍然有許多包裝應用由低端競爭對手提供服務，而我們並沒有真正參與競爭。因此，這與新技術出現的速度有關，但在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們與領先客戶的會議中的對話增加。這已經被討論過，但它正在加速。

So I think it's hard to judge exactly what the growth rate will be at this point. But it's pretty clear that there's a huge demand. And for many customers, they view it as the competitive necessity in order to -- there's very much of a race of getting that new capability into the market, especially as it pertains to some of the AI applications.

所以我認為目前很難準確判斷成長率是多少。但很明顯，需求龐大。對於許多客戶來說，他們認為這是競爭的必要條件，以便將這種新功能推向市場，特別是當它與某些人工智慧應用程式相關時，需要進行激烈的競爭。

So I would say that it's a huge driver for our customers we're engaged. There's a lot of requests for new capability and some of it comes down to us developing solutions in conjunction with those customers to meet those demands. But on its own as it stands right now, it will outgrow WFE and we think it has the potential to go well beyond that, depending on how the adoption goes and how we continue to execute against it.

所以我想說，這對我們所參與的客戶來說是一個巨大的推動力。人們對新功能有很多要求，其中一些需要我們與這些客戶一起開發解決方案來滿足這些需求。但就目前的情況來看，它的發展將超過 WFE，我們認為它有潛力遠遠超出這個範圍，這取決於採用的進展以及我們如何繼續執行它。

We'll take our next question from Tim Arcuri with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀集團 Tim Arcuri 提出的下一個問題。

I'm going to ask about N2, Rick. So -- there has been a lot of talk recently about the big volume in for N2 is not going to be probably until '26, although there will certainly be some customers -- crypto customers and whatnot that will ramp in '25. So there will be capacity that gets installed next year. So I guess my question is, how much of a driver do you think N2 will specifically be for your business? Are you seeing any of that yet? Is it more in the back half of this year thing? Is that -- so I'm just asking about like timing, when that starts to help your business?

我要問一下 N2 的事，Rick。因此，最近有很多關於 N2 的大容量可能要到 26 年才會出現的討論，儘管肯定會有一些客戶——加密貨幣客戶以及諸如此類的客戶將在 25 年增加。因此明年將會有安裝容量。所以我想我的問題是，您認為 N2 對您的業務有多大的推動力？你還看到這些嗎？今年下半年的事多嗎？是這樣嗎——所以我只是問一下類似的時機，什麼時候開始對你的業務有幫助？

Yes. Great question. It is definitely being one of the conversations we're having with critical customers about timing. And we have seen -- part of our optimism going forward is those conversations are being pulled in, in terms of the needs because our customers are feeling end market pull. So I think you're right that it's -- the bulk of it -- the highest volume will be in '26. But for KLA we're already seeing those conversations, and we'll start to see some meaningful business in '25 for that with orders coming toward the end of '24 as customers figure it out.

是的。很好的問題。這絕對是我們與關鍵客戶就時間安排進行的對話之一。我們已經看到，我們對未來的樂觀情緒的一部分是，就需求而言，這些對話正在被拉進來，因為我們的客戶感受到了終端市場的拉動。所以我認為你是對的，其中大部分——最高銷量將出現在 26 年。但對於 KLA 來說，我們已經看到了這些對話，我們將在 25 年開始看到一些有意義的業務，隨著客戶的了解，訂單將在 24 年底到來。

The other thing is we're seeing a number of advanced design starts for the 2-nanometer node. It's a big -- as you know, Tim, it's a big power favorable node. And so for a lot of customers, some of the challenges around data center and frankly, around AI are power related in terms of customers being able to even build those sites. So it's a big driver for our customers right now. So we think N2 is going to be a very significant node, and we're going to definitely see a lot of that. We're already seeing the activity, but it will be a big factor in '25 and then as we go through '25.

另一件事是我們看到許多 2 奈米節點的先進設計開始。這是一個很大的——正如你所知，提姆，這是一個對權力有利的節點。因此，對於許多客戶來說，圍繞著資料中心的一些挑戰，坦白說，圍繞人工智慧的一些挑戰與客戶甚至能夠建立這些站點的能力相關。因此，它現在對我們的客戶來說是一個很大的推動力。所以我們認為 N2 將成為一個非常重要的節點，而且我們肯定會看到很多這樣的節點。我們已經看到了這種活動，但這將是 25 年甚至 25 年的重要因素。

Got it. Got it. Okay. Perfect. And then I want to ask about China. Bren, you just said -- I think you said China is going to be flattish sort of in the back half of the year. I mean it sounds like every quarter China keeps getting stronger (inaudible) I think it's going to downtick and it doesn't because they're just going to take tools of loans -- they're allowed to take tools. So my question is really just on the mix around China. Is this -- is the back half filling in a bit because of new customers? I mean there will be 30 to 40 new has been built, if not more than that, that are part of these big customer relationships under the names. And so is it these newly named fabs that are coming on that are sort of filling in the back half of the year?

知道了。知道了。好的。完美的。然後我想問中國的情況。布倫，你剛才說過──我想你說過中國在今年下半年會表現平淡。我的意思是，聽起來中國每個季度都在變得更強大（聽不清楚），我認為它會下降，但事實並非如此，因為他們只是要採用貸款工具——他們被允許採用工具。所以我的問題其實只是關於中國各地的混合情況。後半部分是否因為新客戶而變得有點填充？我的意思是，將會有 30 到 40 個新的項目建成，如果不是更多的話，這些都是這些大客戶關係的一部分。那麼，這些新命名的晶圓廠是否會在今年下半年填補空缺？

And then if we've seen a lot of headlines around potential entity list additions, if this happens, which there's been a lot of headlines about it. But if it does happen, is this downside to what you're thinking for the back half of the year or for next year?

然後，如果我們看到很多關於潛在實體清單添加的頭條新聞，如果發生這種情況，就會有很多關於它的頭條新聞。但如果真的發生了，這對你下半年或明年的想法是否不利？

Well, Tim, I don't want to speculate about hypotheticals about what might come or not come from the U.S. government in regards to further export controls, and we're continuing to work very closely with the government and spend a lot of time and resources to make sure that whatever the rules are that we're were compliant. It's a pretty decent mix. I talked about DRAM being down. I think the wafer infrastructure in the second half -- I think the wafer infrastructure is probably down a little bit in the second half. I think the reticle infrastructure is probably up, and then the logic/foundry is up overall. And when you net it all out, it's basically a flattish profile.

提姆，我不想猜測美國政府在進一步的出口管制方面可能會採取或不會採取什麼措施，我們將繼續與政府密切合作，並花費大量時間和精力資源以確保無論規則是什麼，我們都遵守。這是一個相當不錯的組合。我談到了 DRAM 故障。我認為下半年的晶圓基礎設施——我認為下半年晶圓基礎設施可能會略有下降。我認為標線基礎設施可能已經啟動，然後邏輯/鑄造廠總體上已經啟動。當你把它全部列出來時，它基本上是一個平坦的輪廓。

The customer mix, you have -- you do have a number of new projects continuing to take systems, but you also have the -- I'll call them, the more mature legacy customers in China that are also part of that mix. So I think it's continuing to be healthy, I think, through this year. And I think the profile as we -- even beyond this year feels like it kind of continues more or less at current levels. Obviously, those are like half to half (inaudible) and in any given quarter, we'll see some movement. But that's how we see things today.

客戶組合，確實有許多新專案繼續採用系統，但也有——我稱之為中國更成熟的傳統客戶，他們也是該組合的一部分。所以我認為今年它會繼續健康發展。我認為，即使在今年之後，我們的形像也或多或少會繼續保持在目前的水平。顯然，這些就像一半對一半（聽不清楚），在任何給定的季度，我們都會看到一些變化。但這就是我們今天看待事物的方式。

We'll take our next question from Charles Shi with Needham.

我們將回答 Charles Shi 和李約瑟提出的下一個問題。

I want to ask a question to build on what was discussed with the team earlier. So TSMC definitely said that the revenue is going to ramp in 2026 for N2. And you kind of alluded to that, that you think the '26 volume for you will be higher than '25. But if I look at how the 3-nanometer ramps look like, and it occurred to me that 2022, which was minus 1 year in terms of production time line for the 3-nanometer was a higher volume for you guys compared with probably 2023. So I just really wonder the fact that you said you think that '26 will be a high volume for you compared with '25? Was that coming from some discussion with the customers? And what's changed this time, why they want, kind of I mean, move the capacity to a little bit closer to the high volume at the point of entry to the high-volume production?

我想在之前與團隊討論的基礎上提出一個問題。所以台積電明確表示N2的營收將在2026年大幅成長。您提到了這一點，您認為 26 年的銷售量將高於 25 年。但如果我看看 3 奈米坡道的樣子，我就會想到 2022 年（3 奈米生產時間線為負 1 年）對你們來說產量可能比 2023 年要高。你認為與25 年相比，26 年對你來說會是高銷售量？這是來自與客戶的討論嗎？這次發生了什麼變化，為什麼他們想要，我的意思是，在進入大批量生產時將產能移至更接近高產量？

Yes, it's a great question. And there's a couple of things to consider when thinking about N2. First of all, this is now very clear in our customers' minds a race for AI capability. And so you see several design starts happening, not just the ones we're most familiar with, but other players too design for capability. So you have a very different demand environment.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。在考慮 N2 時，有幾件事需要考慮。首先，我們的客戶現在非常清楚這是一場人工智慧能力的競賽。所以你會看到一些設計開始發生，不只是我們最熟悉的那些，其他玩家也在設計能力。所以你有一個非常不同的需求環境。

You also have a constrained capacity environment now constrained somewhat even by the ability to build facilities. But the last factor is you have the KLA phenomenon as we get pulled in early. So we're front-end loaded into some of these facilities because you need our systems to be able to qualify the rest. So it is a different node than what we've seen in quite a while because of those factors. And there -- as we meet with customers, they are very concerned about supporting the demand that they're seeing. That's why we believe we're going to get a lot of pressure to support the end of this calendar year to start supporting some of the POs that we're going to see as they plan out those nodes, and it will go through -- and we're talking about volume in '26 for them, but toward the end of '25 is when we'll be seeing more and more of that business.

現在，您還面臨著一個容量有限的環境，甚至連建造設施的能力都受到一定程度的限制。但最後一個因素是，當我們提前介入時，就會出現 KLA 現象。因此，我們將前端加載到其中一些設施中，因為您需要我們的系統來驗證其餘設施的資格。因此，由於這些因素，它與我們在相當長一段時間內所看到的節點不同。當我們與客戶會面時，他們非常關心支持他們所看到的需求。這就是為什麼我們相信我們將承受很大的壓力來支持今年年底開始支持一些 PO，我們將在他們規劃這些節點時看到它們，並且它將經歷 -我們談論的是他們26 年的銷量，但到25 年底我們將看到越來越多的業務。

And of course, we don't know how much broader it's going to get in terms of the number of design starts. It is remarkable that there are this many designs specifically for 1 application at this point in the process, but it's pretty remarkably consistent as we talk to different customers and even their customers.

當然，我們不知道它的設計啟動數量會擴大到多少。值得注意的是，在此過程中，有這麼多專門針對 1 個應用程式的設計，但當我們與不同的客戶甚至他們的客戶交談時，它非常一致。

Maybe a second question, I want to ask you about the advanced packaging capability you're building there, it sounds like you're having more of the constructive conversation with your customers maybe to put more of KLA's more advanced process control capabilities into the packaging side of the process control. So I get the overall idea, but just really hopeful you can provide a little bit more color. What kind of areas do you think the customers are facing challenges in terms of maybe ramping up CoWos, maybe wrapping up SoIC. And where do you see from process control perspective, the biggest opportunities for KLA?

也許是第二個問題，我想問您正在那裡建立的先進封裝能力，聽起來您正在與客戶進行更多建設性對話，也許會將更多 KLA 更先進的過程控制能力融入到包裝中過程控制方面。所以我明白了整體想法，但真的希望你能提供更多的色彩。您認為客戶在哪些方面面臨挑戰，可能是增加 CoWo，也可能是封裝 SoIC。從製程控制的角度來看，您認為 KLA 最大的機會在哪裡？

Yes. I'll give you some color just from 2 stories. One, years ago when we bought ICOS, part of the theory of that case was it was giving us exposure to the back end. And I remember meeting with one of our big customers and their back-end people, and they literally said to me, why are you guys talking to us about the back end, that's not a KLA market. And fast forward to the end of last year -- calendar year in a meeting that Martin and I had with a critical customer, they had 2 topics that we needed to talk about. One was our support of EUV and the ramping of -- continuous ramping of EUV designs and capabilities and the other was advanced packaging.

是的。我將從兩個故事中給你一些啟發。一年前，當我們購買 ICOS 時，這個案例的部分理論是它讓我們接觸到後端。我記得與我們的一位大客戶及其後端人員會面時，他們對我說，為什麼你們要和我們談論後​​端，那不是 KLA 市場。快轉到去年年底，在我和馬丁與一位重要客戶的一次會議上，他們有兩個我們需要討論的議題。一是我們對 EUV 的支援以及 EUV 設計和能力的不斷提升，另一個是先進封裝。

And these are the folks that were historically and traditionally responsible for the front end. And one of the things they said is we think you guys have the capability in a lot of your front-end tools but we need that modified and we need to have for the back end because the back end is a critical part of our differentiation, and that's the part that we need you to work with us to take what you consider front-end tools and make it -- and what we're more concerned with the cost and this is often the case at the beginning of a node. They're more concerned with capability and then they were necessarily on cost.

這些人在歷史和傳統上負責前端。他們說的一件事是，我們認為你們有很多前端工具的能力，但我們需要對其進行修改，我們需要對後端進行修改，因為後端是我們差異化的關鍵部分，這就是我們需要你們與我們合作，採用您認為的前端工具並製作它的部分，而我們更關心的是成本，這通常是在節點開始時的情況。他們更關心能力，然後他們必然關心成本。

So the dynamic has shifted pretty considerably. And again, I go to one of the biggest drivers for all this is all the work that's going on with AI. And if you look at the success and the requirement to have advanced packaging as part of those solutions, that's what's driving it. So we kind of anticipated a few years ago this [more than more trend] was going to become more and more relevant. But we're seeing it very specifically with customers bringing front-end people that they've worked in the front end, having them work on these back-end challenges and asking specifically for capability that we have in the front end to be used in the back end. And in some cases, we've done that with some of our inspection tools and capability. But as you know, we have to make modifications to handling and some of the operating conditions to make that work.

因此，動態已經發生了相當大的變化。我再說一遍，這一切的最大驅動力之一就是人工智慧正在進行的所有工作。如果您看看成功以及將先進封裝作為這些解決方案一部分的要求，您會發現這就是推動它的因素。因此，幾年前我們就預期這種[不僅僅是更多趨勢]將變得越來越相關。但我們特別看到客戶帶來了他們在前端工作過的前端人員，讓他們解決這些後端挑戰，並特別要求我們在前端擁有的能力用於後端。在某些情況下，我們已經透過一些檢查工具和能力做到了這一點。但如您所知，我們必須對處理和一些操作條件進行修改才能實現這一目標。

So we're definitely seeing that, and in some cases, our ability to support and modify those systems will be the gating item for us to realize revenue on it, not the demand. The demand is there. And from a competitive standpoint, we're uniquely positioned to do that. So we feel pretty good about the opportunity, and it's a major focus area for the company.

因此，我們肯定會看到，在某些情況下，我們支援和修改這些系統的能力將成為我們實現收入的門控項目，而不是需求。需求就在那裡。從競爭的角度來看，我們擁有獨特的優勢來做到這一點。因此，我們對這個機會感覺非常好，這是公司的一個主要關注領域。

We'll take our next question from Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答沃爾夫研究公司的克里斯‧卡索提出的下一個問題。

This is a follow-up question with regard to memory. And I think I understand what you're saying with regard to this year, perhaps some improvement in non-China memory, but nothing significant. I guess, what are your customers telling you to be prepared for perhaps as you're going into next year. We're starting to see some prices go up, utilization up. What's your expectation for the potential improvement in '25?

這是關於記憶的後續問題。我想我理解你關於今年的說法，也許非中國記憶有所改善，但沒什麼重大意義。我想，您的客戶會告訴您在明年即將到來時要做好哪些準備。我們開始看到一些價格上漲，利用率上升。您對 25 年的潛在改進有何期望？

Yes, Chris, you're seeing all the things you want to see, right? You're seeing pricing improve, customers are taking up utilization. Utilizations were very low. And so there's a fair amount of capacity that's been out there. We're seeing the profitability improve and ultimately, that will translate into cash flow and then what we expect to be investment next year.

是的，克里斯，你看到了所有你想看到的東西，對嗎？您會看到定價提高，客戶利用率提高。利用率非常低。因此，那裡有相當多的容量。我們看到獲利能力有所改善，最終將轉化為現金流，然後是我們預計明年的投資。

I think we're seeing more in DRAM driven by the leading edge of DRAM or expect to see more there. And then, of course, the drivers related to its high bandwidth memory. But I think in some ways, it's the device market -- part of the market is improving this year, and that will translate into investment next year.

我認為我們在 DRAM 的領先優勢的推動下看到了更多，或者預計會看到更多。當然，還有與其高頻寬記憶體相關的驅動程式。但我認為在某些方面，這是設備市場——今年部分市場正在改善，這將轉化為明年的投資。

Got it. As a follow-up, with regard to service, I think last quarter, you talked about your expectation that being kind of the high end of a 12% to 14% target. Is that still the right way of thinking about it? Again, we've seen utilization rates improve here. Does that make -- does that change your view of where services come out for the year?

知道了。作為後續行動，關於服務，我認為上個季度，您談到了您的預期，即達到 12% 至 14% 目標的高端。這仍然是正確的思考方式嗎？我們再次看到這裡的利用率有所提高。這是否會改變您對今年服務推出的看法？

Well, it's certainly a factor in the growth that we're seeing this year. So I've been pretty open that I thought that we'd be somewhere between $250 million to $300 million of incremental service this year versus in 2023. And I think we're closer to the top end of that range than the bottom. So it is a factor. And given the nature of process control and the complexity of our systems, the mix and the relatively lower volume, our customers tend to rely on us to ensure that they're optimizing their capital, particularly in environments when capital is constrained, yields matter a lot. And so our utilizations never drop as much as process tools where they have more redundancy, but we are seeing it continue to improve. And so I think it's a good sign in terms of the overall market health and our confidence about some of the growth drivers into next year.

嗯，這肯定是我們今年看到的成長的一個因素。因此，我一直非常開放地認為，與 2023 年相比，今年我們的增量服務將在 2.5 億至 3 億美元之間。 而且我認為我們更接近該範圍的上限，而不是底部。所以這是一個因素。考慮到製程控制的性質和我們系統的複雜性、組合和相對較低的產量，我們的客戶傾向於依靠我們來確保他們優化其資本，特別是在資本受限、產量至關重要的環境中。很多。因此，我們的利用率不會像具有更多冗餘的流程工具那樣下降那麼多，但我們看到它不斷改進。因此，我認為，就整體市場健康狀況以及我們對明年一些成長動力的信心而言，這是一個好兆頭。

We'll take our next question from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們將回答富國銀行 Joe Quatrochi 的下一個問題。

Wondering if you can tell me, obviously, you seem pretty positive in terms of just the opportunity looking into next year and thinking about the size of N2 and recovery in the memory market, I guess, how does the conversation with your customers over the last several months and just thinking about your lead times to give you confidence in your ability to reach that 2026 target model?

想知道您是否可以告訴我，顯然，就展望明年的機會以及考慮 N2 的規模和內存市場的複蘇而言，您似乎非常樂觀，我想，過去與客戶的對話如何幾個月的時間，只考慮您的交貨時間，就能讓您對實現2026 年目標模式的能力充滿信心？

Well, I think our confidence is pretty good. We've made a lot of investments around the company in '21 and '22, both in terms of our own capacity, but also to ensure that our key suppliers have the capacity to support that kind of demand environment. So we -- it's one of the reasons why my inventory levels today are higher than -- and they continue to grow even where the market has corrected some because of the commitments we've made to ensure that the suppliers keep that capacity in place.

嗯，我認為我們的信心還是不錯的。我們在21年和22年在公司周圍進行了大量投資，不僅是為了我們自己的能力，也是為了確保我們的主要供應商有能力支持這種需求環境。因此，我們——這是我今天的庫存水平高於的原因之一——即使市場已經修正了一些庫存水平，但它們仍在繼續增長，因為我們做出了確保供應商保持產能的承諾。

So we feel very good about our ability to leverage what we have. I don't think we really have to make a lot of big investments to be able to support that trajectory. And I think we'll -- because of the investments, I think, frankly, they're a little bit of a headwind today in terms of the margins. So I think over time, the leverage opportunity is also compelling if we see the kind of growth environment that we expect over the next couple of years.

因此，我們對利用現有資源的能力感到非常滿意。我不認為我們真的需要進行大量的大投資來支持這個發展軌跡。我認為我們會 - 由於投資，坦率地說，我認為，就利潤率而言，它們今天有點逆風。因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，如果我們看到未來幾年預期的成長環境，槓桿機會也會很有吸引力。

Okay. As a quick follow-up, Bren, I was wondering if you could give us RPO exiting the quarter?

好的。作為快速跟進，Bren，我想知道您是否能為我們提供本季退出的 RPO？

It wouldn't be a quarterly conference call without your question, Joe. So [9.9-ish] we're going to file the Q in the morning or sometime tomorrow, I think, $9.9 billion. It was down about $750 million quarter-on-quarter. Deposits are about $677 million.

喬，如果沒有你的提問，就不算季度電話會議。所以 [9.9-ish] 我們將在早上或明天某個時候提交 Q，我想是 99 億美元。環比下降約 7.5 億美元。存款約6.77億美元。

We will take our next question from Tom O'Malley with Barclays.

我們將接受巴克萊銀行湯姆·奧馬利的下一個問題。

I think there's been a lot of discussion on the call about advanced packaging, and you guys have talked about how you had conversations already about potentially bringing some of your solutions from the front end to the back end. There's obviously some adjustments to those tools to get them ready. Can you talk about the timing of bringing those solutions there? Obviously, you're seeing a big growth rate in the back end. But from the moment that you say, hey, we want to take a tool and address the back end to when you're actually selling that to a customer. Can you talk about how long that takes?

我認為電話會議上對先進封裝進行了很多討論，你們已經討論過如何將一些解決方案從前端帶到後端。顯然，這些工具需要進行一些調整才能做好準備。您能談談將這些解決方案帶到那裡的時機嗎？顯然，您會看到後端的巨大成長率。但從您說，嘿，我們想要使用一個工具並解決後端問題的那一刻起，到您實際將其出售給客戶的那一刻起。你能談談這需要多長時間嗎？

Sure. And we had -- yes, let's be clear. I mean we have some of our products already from the front end that are being used in the back end. That started a while ago. We're just seeing an accelerated conversation about more tools where some customers will actually name specific tools that they want. So it very much depends on the tool and I can give you a range where it could be from 3 months, it could be a couple of years depending on whether you're modifying something that's already being used in that kind of application and specializing it. So it really depends. But I do think that -- we have some that are already there. So part of our $400 million is from tools that were from the front end. It's amount of -- probably half of those is actually in some of process capabilities from SPTS.

當然。我們——是的，讓我們明確一點。我的意思是，我們的一些前端產品已經在後端使用。那是從不久前開始的。我們只是看到關於更多工具的加速對話，有些客戶實際上會說出他們想要的特定工具。所以這很大程度上取決於工具，我可以給你一個範圍，可能是3 個月，也可能是幾年，這取決於你是否修改已經在此類應用程式中使用的東西並對其進行專門化。所以這真的取決於。但我確實認為——我們已經有一些了。因此，我們 4 億美元的一部分來自前端工具。其中可能有一半實際上是 SPTS 的某些流程功能。

So it's really -- those are examples where we have it. And then -- also the case is some of those tools need to be upgraded to the later specifications as customers move forward in technology. So that's why, net-net, it's a positive. It's a growth segment for us. We think it will continue to grow. Bren talked about the growth from last year, and it was a big driver for going back in time for the Orbotech acquisition was our belief that packaging opportunity was going to continue to grow. So that's where we are on it. But it's very tool-specific how long it takes to modify.

所以這確實是──這些都是我們擁有的例子。然後，隨著客戶技術的進步，其中一些工具也需要升級到更高的規格。這就是為什麼，淨淨，這是積極的。這對我們來說是一個成長部分。我們認為它將繼續增長。 Bren 談到了去年的成長，回顧奧寶科技收購的一個重要動力是我們相信封裝機會將繼續成長。這就是我們目前的情況。但修改所需的時間是非常特定於工具的。

We also have new products that are going to support the substrate transition as the substrate integrates into the package. On the inspection side as the lines and spaces shrink in the connecting layers. It will drive the need for more capability for more advanced inspection and metrology systems. And so any time you add sensitivity, you add capability, there tends to be a throughput or a volume hit, so it creates an opportunity for us to sell higher ASP systems so they have more capability, but if you're going to maintain the same sampling rate, then you will need more systems. So it's all a factor in terms of all these factors that are all positive in terms of how we think about the long-term opportunities.

我們還有新產品將支援基板整合到封裝中時的基板轉換。在檢查方面，連接層中的線條和空間收縮。它將推動對更先進的檢測和計量系統的更多功能的需求。因此，每當您增加靈敏度、增加功能時，往往會出現吞吐量或銷量下降，因此這為我們創造了銷售更高 ASP 系統的機會，以便它們擁有更多功能，但如果您要維持相同的採樣率，那麼您將需要更多的系統。因此，就我們如何看待長期機會而言，所有這些因素都是正面的。

Super helpful. And then my second one is just kind of on the (inaudible) that you've given for the year. So you said second half over first half, high single digits and you talked about kind of the mix of foundry/logic being similar to calendar year '23, about that 70%. If you take those clues, you obviously see some really strong growth in memory in the second half. Could you just help us with any color, obviously, from March to June, your DRAM percentage went down a bit in terms of its contribution to memory. But in the second half, how should we be thinking about the DRAM and NAND growth profile?

超有幫助。然後我的第二個是關於你今年給的（聽不清楚）。所以你說下半年比上半年高個位數，你談到鑄造/邏輯的混合與 23 日曆年類似，大約是 70%。如果你抓住這些線索，你顯然會看到下半年記憶體的成長非常強勁。您能否幫我們提供任何顏色，顯然，從 3 月到 6 月，您的 DRAM 百分比在對記憶體的貢獻方面有所下降。但在下半年，我們該如何看待 DRAM 和 NAND 的成長狀況？

Yes. I think I don't think it's going to -- it will be a little bit stronger potentially in the second half than the first, but not much because like I said earlier that expected DRAM investments in China, I would expect in the second half to be lower than the first half.

是的。我認為我認為不會——下半年的潛力會比上半年強一點，但不會太多，因為就像我之前所說的那樣，預計中國的 DRAM 投資，我預計下半年會出現這種情況低於上半年。

(Operator Instructions) I'll take our next question from Srini Pajjuri with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我將回答 Srini Pajjuri 和 Raymond James 提出的下一個問題。

Sorry, I joined a little late, so if these questions have already been asked, I apologize. But I think last quarter, Bren, you had a customer push out that kind of impacted your revenue for the year. I'm just wondering if there's any change or any update to that customer if you're including that in the current year's guidance?

抱歉，我加入得有點晚，所以如果這些問題已經被問到，我深感抱歉。但我認為上個季度，布倫，你有一個客戶推出，這影響了你今年的收入。我只是想知道如果您將其納入今年的指導中，該客戶是否會有任何變更或更新？

Yes, it affected the March quarter as we had some shifting around, frankly, affected a little bit the December quarter and the March quarter, but the shifting around to make the December quarter work, obviously, the shortfall was in March. So I don't think anything has really changed. I don't expect to see much activity from that customer until we get into '25. I mean, look, things could change, we could see some surprise. But right now, at least from a planning point of view, we put it in '25, and if it pulls in great, we can support it.

是的，它影響了3 月季度，因為我們進行了一些調整，坦白說，對12 月季度和3 月季度有一點影響，但為了使12 月季度發揮作用而進行的調整，顯然，缺口是在3 月份。所以我認為沒有什麼真正改變。我預計在進入 25 年之前不會看到該客戶的太多活動。我的意思是，看，事情可能會改變，我們可能會看到一些驚喜。但現在，至少從規劃的角度來看，我們把它放在 25 年，如果效果很好，我們可以支持它。

Got it. And then on the 2 nanometer, I think your foundry customers are transitioning aggressively to get all around. Obviously, that helps you, but at the same time, I think the EUV layer count is going to be somewhat flattish. So I'm just wondering what sort of impact kind of it will have on process control intensity if you go to GAA and keep the, I guess, EUV kind of flattish in terms of layers, should we expect any impact? Or is it kind of a nonevent for you?

知道了。然後在 2 奈米技術上，我認為您的代工客戶正在積極轉型以實現全面發展。顯然，這對您有幫助，但同時，我認為 EUV 層數會有些平坦。所以我只是想知道，如果你去 GAA 並保持 EUV 在層數方面保持平坦，我們應該期待任何影響嗎？還是這對你來說是小事一樁？

It's an event. I mean, our customers are definitely -- so you think about the dynamic, our customers don't want to add process control intensity if they can avoid it, they also want to ramp and yield. So those are the -- that's the trade-off. So in the prototyping stage or the early pilot, they inspect more and they measure more in order to debug the process, if you will, and ramp it.

這是一個事件。我的意思是，我們的客戶肯定是——所以你想想動態，我們的客戶如果可以避免的話就不想增加製程控制強度，他們也希望提高產量。所以這些就是——這就是權衡。因此，在原型設計階段或早期試點中，他們會進行更多檢查和測量，以便調試流程（如果您願意的話）並逐步推進。

And the question is how much do they have to maintain when they ramp and that's really what drives process control. They're definitely using more capability at the front end and there are some areas where they're going to have to increase their sampling or measurement to keep up with the additional challenges of smaller design node. And there's also some new capability to have to bring because of FinFET. And so we've talked in the past about modifications of a Gen 4 optical inspector to be able to support the FinFET. But it's not the only change in that process.

問題是，當他們的產量增加時，他們必須維持多少，這才是製程控制的真正驅動力。他們肯定在前端使用了更多的功能，並且在某些領域他們將不得不增加採樣或測量，以應對較小設計節點的額外挑戰。由於 FinFET，也必須帶來一些新功能。因此，我們過去討論過對第 4 代光學檢測儀進行修改，以支援 FinFET。但這並不是過程中唯一的改變。

So the EUV layers matter, but the process integration challenges are still going to be there. When we model it, though we do see an increase, we have different scenarios for how much process control intensity will go up. But it's consistent with -- we think there'll be a modest increase in the overall process control intensity for the leaders who have been successfully doing 3 nanometers. Anybody else that tries to jump to that node though, will see a dramatic increase in their process control intensity because they don't benefit from the learning of having done 3n volume. So in aggregate, depending on how many people are supporting it over time, it will drive our intensity up for our customers.

因此，EUV 層很重要，但製程整合挑戰仍然存在。當我們對其進行建模時，儘管我們確實看到了增加，但對於過程控制強度將增加多少，我們有不同的情境。但這與我們認為已經成功實現 3 奈米的領先者的整體流程控制強度將會適度增加是一致的。然而，任何其他試圖跳到該節點的人都會發現他們的過程控制強度急劇增加，因為他們沒有從完成 3n 體積的學習中受益。因此，總的來說，根據隨著時間的推移有多少人支持它，它將提高我們為客戶服務的強度。

We're also expecting a more robust design environment, certainly in the first few years than what we saw at 3-nanometer and likely a steeper ramp. So in addition to the challenges of just the gate-all-around architecture, what it means from inspection but also metrology, but also more volume, earlier steeper ramp and a more robust design environment, which will challenge the customers' process integration more than you see when you just have a few designs. So we're encouraged on a number of front.

我們也期待一個更強大的設計環境，當然在最初幾年，比我們在 3 奈米看到的更強大，而且可能會有更陡峭的斜坡。因此，除了全柵架構的挑戰之外，它還意味著檢測和計量，以及更大的體積、更早的更陡峭的斜坡和更強大的設計環境，這對客戶的工藝整合的挑戰將超過當你只有一些設計時你就會看到。因此，我們在許多方面都受到鼓舞。

We'll take another question from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen 提出的另一個問題。

Rick, I just had a follow-up on gate all around. Clearly, you have exposure to your Gen 4 optical inspection and the metrology for High-K metal gate. Is there a way to quantify what you think your gate-all-around revenues could be in calendar '24?

里克，我剛剛對門進行了跟進。顯然，您已經接觸過 Gen 4 光學檢測和高 K 金屬閘極計量。有沒有辦法量化您認為 24 日曆年的整體收入？

Yes. I'd be making it up, Chris. I mean we haven't -- we don't really look at it that and we do think about what is the node requirement. So from that standpoint, if you think N2, you'd attribute it all to gate-all-around. So we think about node intensity for process control and blended. And as I said in the prior answer, that's slightly up, but we don't have a specific number specifically around gate-all-round. But obviously, that's the big driver for the change and why customers are pushing for N2. And we don't know yet, but that's consistent with the 2026 model that we've had where we see rising process control intensity corresponding increase per share for KLA.

是的。我會彌補的，克里斯。我的意思是我們沒有——我們並沒有真正考慮過這一點，我們確實考慮了節點要求是什麼。因此，從這個角度來看，如果您想到 N2，您就會將其全部歸因於環柵。因此，我們考慮過程控制和混合的節點強度。正如我在先前的回答中所說，這個數字略有上升，但我們沒有具體的數字。但顯然，這是改變的重要推動力，也是客戶推動 N2 的原因。我們還不知道，但這與我們的 2026 年模型一致，我們看到過程控制強度不斷上升，KLA 每股收益也相應增加。

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. And then just like if I can squeeze one more in. Just kind of curious about your Gen 4 lead times. I think last time you said it was 7 to 9 months. Has it changed? If you assume that mature node is kind of slowing, China might moderate as the year progresses. Is there a view that the lead times are coming in? Or is it still like 7 to 9 months?

知道了。知道了。這很有幫助。然後就像我是否可以再擠進去一樣。我想上次你說的是 7 到 9 個月。改變了嗎？如果您認為成熟節點正在放緩，那麼中國可能會隨著時間的推移而放緩。是否認為交貨時間即將到來？還是還是7到9個月的樣子？

Gen 4 is highly demanded across nodes. It's a very configurable system. And in fact, we recently introduced a non-upgradable version specifically for gate-all-around. So, it's a product that has a lot of extendibility. It's been challenged in terms of supply -- the ability to get supply to meet demand. I would say -- and we will see some increase this year in revenue from that system, which it hurt us last year just because we weren't able to get any incremental supply around key components.

Gen 4 跨節點的需求很高。這是一個非常可配置的系統。事實上，我們最近推出了專門針對全環閘的不可升級版本。因此，它是一個具有很大可擴展性的產品。它在供應方面面臨著挑戰​​——獲得供應以滿足需求的能力。我想說的是，今年我們將看到該系統的收入增加，去年這對我們造成了傷害，因為我們無法獲得關鍵組件的任何增量供應。

I'll see that increase this year. And so that will help. I still think lead times are probably in the 18- to 24-month range for that product, although we do a lot of juggling to make sure that we're in a position to support all of our customers. But it has demand on multiple fronts, and I think it's a testament to its extendability and the favorability of a broadband system, which has the ability to scale the [wafer plants] to meet very different inspection requirements across multiple nodes.

今年我會看到這一增長。這會有所幫助。我仍然認為該產品的交貨時間可能在 18 到 24 個月範圍內，儘管我們做了很多工作來確保我們能夠支援所有客戶。但它在多個方面都有需求，我認為這證明了它的可擴展性和寬頻系統的有利性，寬頻系統能夠擴展[晶圓廠]以滿足跨多個節點的非常不同的檢查要求。

Thank you, Krish. And I do think, Krish, you were referring to what we said about Gen 5, the 7 to 9 months a quarter ago, Bren. So I don't know on Gen 5, if there's any change there, but.

謝謝你，克里什。我確實認為，Krish，你指的是我們所說的第五代，即一個季度前的 7 到 9 個月，Bren。所以我不知道第五代是否有任何變化，但是。

Gen 5 is in the same ballpark.

Gen 5 處於同一水平。

All right. So that brings us to the end of our call. We want to thank everyone for your time and attention. We know it's a very busy day. With that, I will pass the call back over to our operator, to conclude.

好的。我們的通話到此結束。我們要感謝大家的時間和關注。我們知道這是非常忙碌的一天。至此，我會將電話轉回給我們的接線生，以得出結論。

This does conclude the KLA Corporation March 2024 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

KLA Corporation 2024 年 3 月收益電話會議及網路廣播到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。