科磊 (KLAC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Lee, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation's September quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions)

大家下午好。我叫李，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時，我謹歡迎大家參加 KLA Corporation 的 2024 年 9 月季度收益電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Kevin Kessel, Vice President of Investor Relations and Market Analytics. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和市場分析副總裁 Kevin Kessel。請繼續，先生。

Welcome to our earnings call to discuss the September 2024 results and the December quarter outlook I'm joined by our CEO, Rick Wallace, and our CFO, Bren Higgins. We will discuss today's results released after the market close and available on ir.kla.com along with the supplemental materials.

歡迎參加我們的財報電話會議，討論 2024 年 9 月的業績和 12 月的季度展望。我們將討論今天收盤後發布的結果以及補充資料，這些結果可在 ir.kla.com 上取得。

Today's discussion and metrics are presented on a non-GAAP basis, unless otherwise specified, all full year references we make are to calendar years. The earnings materials contain a detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results. KLA's IR website also contains future investor events presentations, corporate governance information, and links to our SEC filings, including the most recent annual report and quarterly reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q.

今天的討論和指標是在非公認會計原則的基礎上提出的，除非另有說明，否則我們所做的所有全年參考都是日曆年。收益材料包含 GAAP 與非 GAAP 業績的詳細調整表。 KLA 的 IR 網站還包含未來投資者活動演示、公司治理資訊以及我們 SEC 備案文件的鏈接，包括 10-K 和 10-Q 表格上的最新年度報告和季度報告。

Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the disclosure of risk factors in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on our call today, are also subject to those risks, and KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

我們今天的評論受到美國證券交易委員會文件中揭露的風險因素所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。任何前瞻性聲明，包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的聲明，也面臨這些風險，KLA 無法保證這些前瞻性聲明將會實現。我們的實際結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有很大差異。

Rick will start with some introductory comments, followed by Bren with financial highlights and our outlook. Before I turn the call over to our CEO, Rick Wallace, I wanted to provide a safe to date for our 2025 Investor Day. It will be held on the morning of June 18, 2025 in New York City at the Nasdaq market site. We will provide more details closer to the event.

里克（Rick）將首先進行一些介紹性評論，然後布倫（Bren）介紹財務要點和我們的前景。在我將電話轉給我們的執行長 Rick Wallace 之前，我想為 2025 年投資者日提供一個安全的資訊。將於2025年6月18日上午在紐約納斯達克市場舉行。我們將在活動臨近時提供更多詳細資訊。

Now, over to Rick.

現在，輪到瑞克了。

Thank you, Kevin. KLA September quarter exhibited strengthening customer demand and solid execution by our global team. Results exceeded expectations and delivered continued relative outperformance with revenue of $2.84 billion non-GAAP diluted EPS of $7.33 and GAAP diluted EPS of $7.01. All results came in at the upper end of their guidance ranges.

謝謝你，凱文。 KLA 九月季度表現出客戶需求的增強和我們全球團隊的紮實執行。業績超出預期，並持續保持相對優異的表現，非 GAAP 營收為 28.4 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 7.33 美元，GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 7.01 美元。所有結果均為指導範圍的上限。

As expected, we are encouraged by the signs of the strengthening leading-edge logic and memory environment for our top customers, and we remain confident in our plan for steady improvement and continued growth in 2025. Quarter saw a number of highlights, including strong double-digit sequential and year-over-year revenue growth.

正如預期的那樣，我們對我們的頂級客戶的領先邏輯和存儲環境不斷增強的跡象感到鼓舞，我們對2025 年穩步改進和持續增長的計劃仍然充滿信心。倍增長收入連續增長和年增長。

In foundry logic, the continuation of scaling and incorporation of new technologies and slowly rising capital intensity continued to be a long-term secular tailwind. In memory, technology development investments supporting AI and high-bandwidth memory and an improving supply-demand environment are positioning memory makers return to growth for the wafer fab equipment industry in 2025.

從代工邏輯來看，新技術的持續擴展和整合以及資本密集度的緩慢上升仍然是長期的長期推動力。在記憶體領域，支援人工智慧和高頻寬記憶體的技術開發投資以及不斷改善的供需環境將使記憶體製造商的晶圓廠設備產業在 2025 年恢復成長。

This quarter continued to demonstrate growing customer adoption of KLA's advanced packaging portfolio and we remain confident that revenue in this category will exceed $500 million in CY24 and continue to grow in CY25. We also continue to see AI as an important driver and enabler of our business.

本季繼續顯示客戶越來越多地採用 KLA 的先進封裝產品組合，我們仍然有信心該類別的收入在 2024 年將超過 5 億美元，並在 2025 年繼續成長。我們也繼續將人工智慧視為我們業務的重要驅動力和推動者。

Growth in demand for AI CHIPS supports rising process control intensity, which benefits KLA meaningfully. Additionally, KLA was an early adopter in using and incorporating AI into our products and designing our computer architecture to leverage GPUs. KLA's future product enhancements will leverage AI to improve the performance and customer cost of ownership of our leading-edge systems.

AI 晶片需求的成長支援製程控制強度的提高，這對 KLA 來說意義重大。此外，KLA 是在我們的產品中使用和整合人工智慧以及設計我們的電腦架構以利用 GPU 的早期採用者。 KLA 未來的產品增強功能將利用人工智慧來提高我們領先系統的效能和客戶擁有成本。

Daily service business grew to $644 million in the September quarter, up 5% sequentially and 15% year over year, making this the 49th consecutive quarter of growth on a year-over-year basis.

9 月所在季度的日常服務業務成長至 6.44 億美元，較上季成長 5%，年成長 15%，已是連續第 49 季年成長。

Finally, the September quarter was strong from a cash flow and capital returns perspective, quarterly free cash flow was $935 million. Over the last 12 months, free cash flow was $3.2 billion free cash flow margin of 31% over the same period. Total capital return in the September quarter was $765 million, comprised of $567 million in share repurchases and $198 million in dividends.

最後，從現金流和資本回報的角度來看，9 月季度表現強勁，季度自由現金流為 9.35 億美元。過去 12 個月，自由現金流為 32 億美元，同期自由現金流利潤率為 31%。 9月季度的總資本回報為7.65億美元，其中包括5.67億美元的股票回購和1.98億美元的股利。

Total capital return over the past 12 months was $2.6 billion. We are confident the KLA operating model positions the company well for sustainable outperformance relative to the industry over the long run.

過去 12 個月的資本回報總額為 26 億美元。我們相信，KLA 的營運模式使公司能夠在長期內保持領先於行業的表現。

I will now pass the call over to Bren to cover financial highlights and our outlook.

我現在將把電話轉給布倫，介紹財務亮點和我們的前景。

Thanks, Rick. KLA September quarter results demonstrate market leadership, combined with the consistent execution and dedication of our global team.

謝謝，瑞克。 KLA 9 月季度業績展示了市場領先地位，以及我們全球團隊一貫的執行力和奉獻精神。

Quarterly revenue was $2.84 billion, above the guidance midpoint of $2.75 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $7.33 and GAAP diluted EPS was $7.01, both above the respective guidance midpoint.

季度營收為 28.4 億美元，高於 27.5 億美元的指導中位數。非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 7.33 美元，GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 7.01 美元，均高於各自指導中點。

Gross margin was 61.2%, slightly below the midpoint of the guidance range as the systems product mix was modestly weaker than expected.

毛利率為 61.2%，略低於指導範圍的中點，因為系統產品組合略弱於預期。

Operating expenses were $560 million, Operating expenses were comprised of $322 million in R&D and $238 million in SG&A. Operating margin was 41.5%.

營運費用為 5.6 億美元，營運費用包括 3.22 億美元的研發費用和 2.38 億美元的銷售、一般管理費用。營業利益率為 41.5%。

Other income and expense debt was a $41 million expense with the downside from guidance attributed to the mark-to-market effect of the strategic supply investment. The quarterly effective tax rate was 13.2%. And quarterly non-GAAP net income was $988 million. GAAP net income was $946 million. Cash flow from operations was $995 million, and free cash flow was $935 million.

其他收入和支出債務為 4,100 萬美元，由於戰略供應投資的以市價計價效應，指引下降。季度有效稅率為13.2%。非 GAAP 季度淨利為 9.88 億美元。 GAAP 淨利潤為 9.46 億美元。營運現金流為 9.95 億美元，自由現金流為 9.35 億美元。

The breakdown of revenue by reportable segments and end markets, major products and regions can be found within the shareholder letter and slides.

按可報告部門和終端市場、主要產品和地區劃分的收入細目可在股東信函和幻燈片中找到。

Moving to the balance sheet. KLA ended the quarter with $4.6 billion in total cash, debt of $6.7 billion and a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by strong investment-grade ratings from all three major rating agencies. Our debt levels are expected to decline in the December quarter as the company retires its November 2024 bonds at maturity.

轉向資產負債表。截至本季末，KLA 現金總額為 46 億美元，債務為 67 億美元，債券期限結構靈活且有吸引力，並得到三大評級機構強勁的投資級評級的支持。隨著公司到期償還 2024 年 11 月債券，我們的債務水準預計將在 12 月季度下降。

Moving to our outlook in the near term, the industry outlook remains positive for our business. Our quarter-to-quarter performance is also consistent with the views we articulated at the beginning of the year.

談到我們的近期前景，行業前景對我們的業務仍然樂觀。我們的季度業績也與我們年初表達的觀點一致。

For calendar '24, supported by recent customer announcements, our expectation is for the WFE market to increase modestly from the mid to the high-$90 billion range for the calendar year based on our internal analysis of reported results and guidance across our peers and customers.

對於 24 日曆年，在最近的客戶公告的支持下，根據我們對報告結果的內部分析以及同行和客戶的指導，我們預計 WFE 市場將從日曆年的 900 億美元中端到高端適度增長。

Our perspective on calendar 2025 expectations is mostly unchanged from what we articulated last quarter. While we will not be overly specific on expectations for next calendar year until we report in January, we do continue to expect another year of growth, fueled principally by growth and investment in both leading-edge foundry, logic and memory, mostly DRAM, offset by lower China demand, as customers absorb the equipment investments made over the past couple of years.

我們對 2025 年預期的看法與我們上季闡述的基本沒有變化。雖然在1 月報告之前我們不會過於具體地對明年的預期進行預測，但我們確實繼續預計又一年的成長，這主要是由領先代工、邏輯和記憶體（主要是DRAM）的成長和投資推動的由於客戶消化了過去幾年的設備投資，中國需求下降。

Given KLA's business momentum, market share opportunities and higher expected process control intensity at the leading edge across all segments. We are confident we can maintain our relative WFE market outperformance in calendar 2025.

鑑於 KLA 的業務勢頭、市場份額機會以及預期更高的過程控制強度，在所有細分市場中均處於領先地位。我們有信心在 2025 年維持 WFE 市場的相對優異表現。

KLA's December quarter guidance is as follows: Total revenue is expected to be $2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. Foundry logic revenue from semiconductor customers is forecasted to be approximately 76%, and memory is expected to be approximately 24% semi process control systems revenue to semiconductor customers.

KLA 12 月季度指引如下：總收入預計為 29.5 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元。來自半導體客戶的代工邏輯收入預計將占到半導體客戶的約 76%，記憶體預計將佔半導體客戶的半製程控制系統收入的約 24%。

Within memory, DRAM is expected to be about 76% of the segment mix and NAND, remaining 24%. Non-GAAP gross margin is forecasted to be 61.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point, or up 30 basis points sequentially at the midpoint on slightly higher revenue and more favorable product mix expectations.

在記憶體領域，DRAM 預計將佔細分市場的 76% 左右，而 NAND 則佔 24%。由於收入略有增加和產品組合預期更加有利，非 GAAP 毛利率預計為 61.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點，即比上一季增長 30 個基點。

Non-GAAP operating expenses are forecasted in the December quarter to be approximately $580 million as we continue to make important R&D and scaling investments to support expected revenue growth.

隨著我們繼續進行重要的研發和規模投資以支持預期的收入成長，非 GAAP 營運費用預計在 12 月季度約為 5.8 億美元。

Looking ahead, we expect approximately $15 million in incremental quarterly spend and operating expenses over the next several quarters supported by our product development road map requirements, revenue growth expectations and further balanced against our 40% to 50% incremental operating margin leverage business model over the long run.

展望未來，在我們的產品開發路線圖要求、收入成長預期的支持下，我們預計未來幾季的季度支出和營運支出將增加約1500 萬美元，並進一步與我們40% 至50% 增量運營利潤率槓桿業務模式相平衡。

Other model assumptions for the December quarter include non-GAAP other income and expense debt of approximately $33 million expense. GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be $7.45, plus or minus $0.60, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $7.75, plus or minus $0.60. EPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 134 million shares.

12 月季度的其他模型假設包括約 3,300 萬美元的非 GAAP 其他收入和支出債務。 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益預計為 7.45 美元，上下浮動 0.60 美元；非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益預估為 7.75 美元，上下浮動 0.60 美元。每股盈餘指引是基於約 1.34 億股完全稀釋後的股數。

In conclusion, we are guiding to our third consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth and improving market demand at the leading edge and expect annual growth to continue in calendar 2025. KLA remains focused on delivering a differentiated product portfolio that addresses customers' technology road map requirements and drives our longer-term relevancy and growth expectations.

總而言之，我們預計將實現連續第三個季度的收入環比增長，並以領先的方式改善市場需求，並預計到2025 年將繼續實現年度增長。滿足客戶的技術路線圖要求並推動我們的長期相關性和成長預期。

KLA's focus on customer success, delivering innovative and differentiated solutions and operational excellence for what drives industry-leading financial and free cash flow performance and allows us to return capital consistently.

KLA 專注於客戶成功，提供創新和差異化的解決方案以及卓越的運營，推動行業領先的財務和自由現金流績效，並使我們能夠持續回報資本。

The return of semiconductor scaling leads to increasing complexity and new technologies that have strengthened our confidence in the rising importance of process control for enabling new technology advancements. This is not just an improving time to results and process integration at fab ramp, but also an optimize yield across high-volume manufacturing environment with high semiconductor device design mix.

半導體微縮技術的回歸導致了複雜性的增加和新技術的出現，這增強了我們對製程控制對於實現新技術進步的重要性的信心。這不僅縮短了晶圓廠生產的結果和製程整合時間，而且還優化了具有高半導體裝置設計組合的大批量製造環境的產量。

In addition, our service business continues to increase its relevance of system lifetime increases and customer expectations for increased tool availability and performance is a growing long-term tailwind. This bodes well for KLA's long-term growth outlook and industry demand trends favoring KLA are continuing to improve. In alignment with this, KLA's business is well positioned, and the long-term secular trends driving semiconductor industry demand and investments in WFE are very promising.

此外，我們的服務業務不斷提高其與系統壽命延長的相關性，而客戶對提高工具可用性和效能的期望是一個不斷增長的長期推動力。這對 KLA 的長期成長前景來說是個好兆頭，有利於 KLA 的產業需求趨勢持續改善。與此一致的是，KLA 的業務定位良好，推動半導體產業需求和 WFE 投資的長期趨勢非常有前景。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Let's begin the Q&A.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。讓我們開始問答。

Thank you, Bren.

謝謝你，布倫。

Ladies and gentlemen --

女士們，先生們 -

Sorry, go ahead, operator. I just going to say please provide the instructions.

抱歉，請繼續，接線生。我只想說請提供說明。

Certainly. Thank you, Mr. Kessel. (Operator Instructions)

當然。謝謝你，凱塞爾先生。 （操作員說明）

Vivek Arya, Bank of America.

維韋克·阿里亞 (Vivek Arya)，美國銀行。

I'm curious, there's a lot of excitement about the leading edge, but how do we square that with the fact that only the leading foundry of payers to want to increase spending, but the next two want to cut spending? So is this TSMC spending good enough to drive up leading-edge investments by the double-digit or so pace that everyone is is looking for. I was just curious, this excitement. Is it broad-based? Or is it just based on one foundry's desire to increase spending?

我很好奇，領先優勢令人興奮，但我們如何將這一點與這樣一個事實相協調：只有領先的鑄造廠的付款人想要增加支出，而接下來的兩個鑄造廠想要削減支出？那麼，台積電的支出是否足以以每個人都在尋求的兩位數左右的速度推動前沿投資。我只是好奇，這種興奮。其基礎廣泛嗎？還是只是基於一家代工廠增加支出的願望？

Thanks, for the question. It's not a foundry question. It's a customer of the foundries question. I think they would obviously -- if there were more suppliers of leading edge, I think that the business would be spread across them. But right now, there's one supplier in the leading edge.

謝謝你的提問。這不是代工廠的問題。這是代工廠客戶的問題。我認為他們顯然會——如果有更多領先的供應商，我認為業務將分散在他們身上。但目前，只有一家供應商處於領先地位。

And what they're seeing is significant demand above as they indicated in their call, what they anticipated. And a bit of the -- we anticipated 2-nanometer demand to be strong, but the fact that there's additional demand for 3-nanometer lead us to some pretty robust forecast through the rest of this year for the bookings and also into 2025. So I don't think it's a function of the number of players. I think it's a demand driver.

他們所看到的是巨大的需求，正如他們在電話中所表明的那樣，他們的預期。我們預計 2 奈米的需求將會強勁，但事實上對 3 奈米的需求增加，這讓我們對今年剩餘時間以及 2025 年的預訂量做出了相當強勁的預測。我認為這是需求驅動因素。

And as you know, it's across a number of players because it's not just in support. I mean, AI is the fastest-growing segment. And that's both for training chips, but also inference trips. And that's really driving this additional demand that we're seeing.

如您所知，它涉及許多玩家，因為它不僅僅是支援。我的意思是，人工智慧是成長最快的領域。這既適用於訓練晶片，也適用於推理之旅。這確實推動了我們所看到的額外需求。

And Vivek, the other thing I would add is severely close to our customers, and they all approach process control in different ways. But generally, we want to make sure that we're collaborating and close enough to them that we have a a pretty good understanding of the overall demand picture. So we think that in terms of assessing what each customer is doing in terms of the demand that they're going to satisfy that Rick articulated, we feel good that we have our or supply that is supporting that aligned with that demand expectation.

Vivek，我要補充的另一件事是與我們的客戶非常接近，他們都以不同的方式進行製程控制。但總的來說，我們希望確保我們與他們合作並足夠密切，以便我們對整體需求狀況有很好的了解。因此，我們認為，在評估每個客戶正在做的事情以及他們將滿足里克所闡述的需求方面，我們感到很高興，因為我們擁有支持與需求預期一致的供應。

That's very helpful. And for my follow-up, a question on your China exposure, about 42% in September. Curious what you are expecting or what's baked in for December?

這非常有幫助。我的後續問題是關於您的中國風險敞口的問題，9 月約為 42%。想知道 12 月您有什麼期待或即將推出什麼嗎？

And maybe just the broader question is, can you maybe dissect what the exposure is in China? How much is product services? How much is resilient or how much might be exposed to any potential restrictions or overbid. Just how do you think about China for the next several quarters, whether it's on an absolute basis or whether it's on a percentage of sales basis?

也許更廣泛的問題是，您能否剖析一下在中國的風險敞口是什麼？產品服務多少錢？有多少是有彈性的，有多少可能會受到任何潛在限製或出價過高的影響。您如何看待中國未來幾季的情況，無論是按絕對比例還是按銷售額百分比？

Well, Vivek, understanding China right now this year, it's important to keep in context what happened in '22 and '23 and '24, right? So if you go back to 2022, we took a lot of orders for greenfield projects, and had supply constraints and strong demand from our other non-China customers that effectively limited what we were able to produce in '22. And we focused on our more strategic long-standing customers.

好吧，Vivek，今年了解中國，了解 22 年、23 年和 24 年發生的事情很重要，對嗎？因此，如果你回到 2022 年，我們接到了很多綠地項目的訂單，並且受到供應限制和其他非中國客戶的強勁需求，這實際上限制了我們在 22 年的生產能力。我們專注於更具策略性的長期客戶。

And as we moved into '23 and '24, because a lot of that activity was greenfield, it wasn't necessarily being put in place to react to supply and demand dynamics. It was basically new fabs that were starting up.

當我們進入「23」和「24」時，由於許多活動都是未開發的，因此不一定要對供需動態做出反應。基本上就是正在啟動的新工廠。

And so while it was funding available, those customers were able to step in and fill a void in '23 and '24 that came from our other customers pulling back pretty meaningfully. So as we look at '22 -- so it's been at elevated levels for a couple of years.

因此，儘管有可用資金，但這些客戶能夠介入並填補 23 年和 24 年因我們其他客戶撤資而產生的空白。因此，當我們觀察 22 年時，它多年來一直處於較高水平。

If we look at the fourth quarter, as I said before, I thought we would see the percent come down. And it looks like it is coming down to somewhere in the mid-30s for the fourth quarter. And then so if you look at 2024, it's been elevated into the low-40s, as a percent.

如果我們看看第四季度，正如我之前所說，我認為我們會看到百分比下降。第四季的價格似乎會下降到 30 多歲左右。然後，如果你看看 2024 年，你會發現它的百分比已經上升到 40 左右。

And so when we look into next year, expecting some digestion next year, I would expect that to drop somewhere down to around 30% plus or minus a couple of points or so moving forward.

因此，當我們展望明年時，預計明年會有所消化，我預計這一數字將下降至 30% 左右，上下浮動幾個百分點左右。

I'm not going to get into the various aspects of the mix from a service other than saying, just from a service point of view, it's a less mature market. So service is a lower percentage than sort of at corporate average percent as a percent of revenue. So hopefully, that's helpful. But that's all I'll say on that front.

我不會從服務的角度來討論混合的各個方面，只是說，僅從服務的角度來看，這是一個不太成熟的市場。因此，服務佔收入的百分比低於公司平均百分比。希望這會有所幫助。但這就是我在這方面要說的全部。

As it relates to export controls, we've been getting this question for over a year now in terms of when and if and how much. And so I don't want to speculate on the hypotheticals that are out there and how to think about it.

由於它與出口管制有關，一年多來我們一直在問這個問題，無論是何時、是否以及多少。因此，我不想猜測現有的假設以及如何思考它。

So once we have clarity, if if something happens, we'll assess the impact, and we'll have more to share with you. But for now, I don't want to speculate on anything more than that.

因此，一旦我們弄清楚了，如果發生什麼事情，我們將評估其影響，並與您分享更多資訊。但目前，我不想猜測更多的事情。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Hey, good afternoon. Great job on the quarterly execution. On your qualitative comments on the 2025 view, right, you're calling out growth for next year. You said not much change relative to your new 90 days ago. I assume that in terms of maybe total dollar spending, you did call out lower China revenues next year, right, versus your view on stable previously.

嘿，下午好。季度執行情況出色。在您對 2025 年觀點的定性評論中，您正在呼籲明年的成長。你說相對於 90 天前的新產品來說沒有太大變化。我認為，就美元支出總額而言，您確實指出明年中國的收入會下降，對吧，與您之前對穩定的看法相比。

So should we interpret the downshift in China as being more than offset by incrementally better spending on advanced foundry and logic and memory on the strong demand trends that Rick articulated earlier?

那麼，我們是否應該將中國的下滑解讀為，隨著里克先前闡述的強勁需求趨勢，先進代工、邏輯和內存方面的支出不斷增加，足以抵消中國的下滑？

Yeah. I think we started with -- you just go back to what we said a quarter ago that a view of stability, maybe it was going to be up a little bit, down a little bit, but not as clear. I think where we sit today, I would expect that it will be down some. And we think it's being offset by by the leading-edge demand that Rick referred to. So overall, our views on '25 haven't really changed.

是的。我認為我們一開始就——你只需回到我們一個季度前所說的那樣，從穩定性的角度來看，也許它會上升一點，下降一點，但不是那麼清楚。我認為我們今天所處的位置，我預計會下降。我們認為它被里克提到的前沿需求所抵消。所以總的來說，我們對 25 年的看法並沒有真正改變。

Yeah. I mean, Harlan, if you think about at the exit rate that we're talking about for Q4 -- that is -- if you keep that rate for '25, that's a higher number. So you could have China be at a similar dollar level but a lower percentage.

是的。我的意思是，哈倫，如果你考慮一下我們正在討論的第四季度的退出率，也就是說，如果你保持 25 年的退出率，那就是一個更高的數字。因此，中國可能處於類似的美元水平，但百分比較低。

Got it. And then on your process control business, right? If I look at wafer inspection and patterning and metrology, right, up 10% year over year first nine months versus a year ago. Now within this, inspection is up 18% year over year. So very, very strong way for the first nine months of this calendar year.

知道了。然後是您的過程控制業務，對吧？如果我看一下晶圓檢查、圖案化和計量，對吧，前 9 個月與去年同期相比同比增長了 10%。目前，檢查量年增 18%。今年前九個月的表現非常非常強勁。

Patterning, metrology, down about 5% right over that same period of time. But looking into next year, right, given the Patterning and metrology sort of intensity increases on things like gate all around, backside power distribution, advanced memory, like would you anticipate your patterning plus metrology business to see an acceleration of growth as we move into next year?

圖案、計量在同一時期下降了約 5%。但展望明年，對吧，考慮到圖案化和計量在諸如周圍柵極、背面配電、高級存儲器等方面的強度增加，就像您預計您的圖案化和計量業務會隨著我們進入明年？

Yeah. That's our current view. Metrology is very closely linked to process tool purchases because you're monitoring the films, you're monitoring overlay and so on. So patterning tends to scale up and down with more capacity investments. I think given expectations for design starts, you're also going to see the reticle part of the business increase next year as well. So I would expect that we'll see growth in metrology and reticle inspection into next year.

是的。這是我們目前的觀點。計量與處理工具的購買密切相關，因為您正在監控膠片、監控疊加等。因此，隨著產能投資的增加，模式往往會擴大或縮小。我認為考慮到對設計開始的期望，明年你也會看到光罩部分的業務有所成長。因此，我預計明年我們將看到計量和光罩檢查的成長。

What's been driving inspection is a lot of this activity given some of the yield challenges that customers have been facing, obviously, into starting to pick up here in the fourth quarter. And then, of course, in advanced packaging, where we've seen an inflection of growth in our inspection offerings for that part of the market as well. So that's been a driver for some of the incremental growth of inspection relative to patterning.

考慮到客戶在第四季度開始面臨的一些良率挑戰，推動檢查的主要因素是大量此類活動。當然，在先進封裝領域，我們也看到了該部分市場的檢測產品也出現了成長。因此，這一直是檢測相對於圖案化的增量成長的驅動力。

Yes. One other thing, Harlan. I think if you look at capacity constraints that we were more gated on lead times of subsystems such as optics for the inspection business. didn't really have that phenomena in metrology. So those tend to flex as Bren said more with production.

是的。另一件事，哈倫。我認為，如果你看看產能限制，你會發現我們對子系統（例如檢查業務的光學系統）的交付時間有更多的限制。在計量學中並沒有真正存在這種現象。因此，正如布倫在生產中所說的那樣，這些往往會彎曲。

So we still have good backlog when it comes to the BBP platforms. and an increasing demand environment for us. So we're also seeing additional capacity coming on to support the growth in 2025. So that that will allow the BBP product lines to grow.

因此，在 BBP 平台方面，我們仍有大量積壓。以及我們日益增長的需求環境。因此，我們也看到了支持 2025 年成長的額外產能。

Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

喬·夸特羅奇，富國銀行。

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. I was wondering, 2 nanometers as you think about just the capital intensity process control. Is there any color that you can really share there and how we think about sample rates to 3 nanometer?

是的，感謝您提出問題。我想知道，當你考慮資本密集度過程控制時，2 奈米。您是否可以在那裡分享任何顏色以及我們如何考慮 3 奈米的採樣率？

Sure. What we're seeing right now is what we expected on to and what we're seeing a little bit on three is there's more -- process windows are being squeezed even further. So there are more inspection points being added. So when we think about how many steps and the places that people are inspecting, those are going up. So we have a run part analysis of what it looks like and the tools that it will take.

當然。我們現在看到的是我們所期望的，而我們在三個方面看到的還有更多——工藝窗口被進一步擠壓。所以增加了更多的檢查點。因此，當我們考慮人們正在檢查的台階數量和地點時，這些都在增加。因此，我們對它的外觀和所需的工具進行了運行部分分析。

What happens is, let's say, you go from three to two, you might not dramatically increase the number of EUV layers, for example, but there is some increase and associated with that are more places where you have to sample.

舉例來說，發生的情況是，從三層變為兩層，您可能不會大幅增加 EUV 層的數量，但會出現一些增加，並且與此相關的是需要採樣的更多地方。

So initially, when you're in vivo, you're looking at different defects. So you might even be looking at higher sensitivity settings, which means you need more capacity to support it. So we haven't fully quantified because when we work with our customers on that, we're actually looking for efficiency. So you debug and then you see what is left that I have to sample at a higher frequency to be able to ensure process stability during ramp in production.

所以最初，當你在體內時，你會看到不同的缺陷。因此，您甚至可能需要更高的靈敏度設置，這意味著您需要更多的容量來支援它。所以我們還沒有完全量化，因為當我們與客戶合作時，我們實際上是在尋求效率。因此，您進行偵錯，然後您將看到剩餘的內容，我必須以更高的頻率進行取樣，以便能夠確保生產過程中的製程穩定性。

But the initial expectations are, and what we're seeing is that, 2-nanometers will be higher, more sampling at higher levels with more systems with more configurations, driving higher process control intensity, and that's the trend that we're seeing.

但最初的期望是，我們看到的是，2 奈米將會更高，更高水平的更多採樣，更多系統和更多配置，推動更高的過程控制強度，這就是我們看到的趨勢。

The other thing is, as Bren mentioned, if you think about what's coming, there are going to be more designs at these advanced nodes than we maybe a few years ago, might have imagined. There's higher variability, so higher mix and higher mix drives a need for more sampling as well.

另一件事是，正如布倫所提到的，如果你考慮即將發生的事情，這些先進節點上的設計將會比我們幾年前想像的要多。可變性更高，因此更高的混合和更高的混合也推動了對更多採樣的需求。

So Joe, on architectures. When architectures change, it tends to drive process control higher, we saw that with (inaudible) you go back to the last local high of process control intensity or KLA share of WFE. So as we transition here to a new architecture, it will create not only are there other additional patterning requirements from a metrology point of view, more layers deposited and that creates opportunities for us on the film measurement side. You also have new defect mechanisms because of the nature of the structure. So you have these varying defects, where there's residue that's left over, that's very hard to inspect.

喬，關於架構。當架構發生變化時，它往往會推動流程控制更高，我們看到（聽不清楚）您會回到流程控制強度或 WFE 的 KLA 份額的最後一個局部高點。因此，當我們過渡到新架構時，從計量角度來看，它不僅會產生其他額外的圖案要求，還會沉積更多層，這為我們在薄膜測量方面創造了機會。由於結構的性質，您還會有新的缺陷機制。因此，您會遇到這些不同的缺陷，其中有殘留物，很難檢查。

And so we've introduced new capability for that very two or gate all around specific defect type. And so there's an increment of opportunity there beyond what we would normally expect to see in a node to node transition. So there's a lot of opportunity out there. And if we can execute, we feel very encouraged by what's in front of us.

因此，我們針對特定缺陷類型的兩個或閘門引入了新功能。因此，機會的增加超出了我們通常期望在節點到節點轉換中看到的機會。所以那裡有很多機會。如果我們能夠執行，我們就會對眼前的事情感到非常鼓舞。

Well, that's helpful detail. As a follow-up, I think in the past, you guys try to help us how to think about like growth half-on-half, second half versus first half? And I guess as we look into the first half of '25, should we be thinking about similar kind of levels half-on-half growth as we've seen kind of second half versus first half in 2024. How should we think about that?

嗯，這是有用的細節。作為後續，我想在過去，你們試圖幫助我們如何思考半成長、下半年與上半年的成長？我想，當我們展望 25 年上半年時，我們是否應該考慮類似的半成長水平，就像我們在 2024 年下半年和上半年看到的那樣。

Well, I would say to Rick's earlier point, that based on our expectations into Q1, we see a pretty stable environment from the current run rates as we move forward. So I won't get into the full half.

好吧，我想說的是里克之前的觀點，根據我們對第一季的預期，隨著我們的前進，我們從當前的運行率中看到了一個相當穩定的環境。所以我不會進入完整的一半。

At this point, we'll have a lot more to say about our views on '25 when we report out for the December quarter and January. But certainly, as we look at the March quarter today, I feel very good about the overall stability and the run rate levels of the business.

此時，當我們報告 12 月季度和 1 月時，我們將更多地談論我們對 '25 的看法。但當然，當我們今天回顧三月季度時，我對業務的整體穩定性和運行率水平感覺非常好。

C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

C.J.繆斯，坎托·費茲傑拉。

Yeah. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I guess maybe to follow up on that last question and your comment about stability into March. I believe two is moving into HVM in Q1. And you talked about expected strength from advanced packaging.

是的。午安.感謝您提出問題。我想也許可以跟進最後一個問題以及您對三月穩定性的評論。我相信第一季有兩家公司將進入 HVM。您談到了先進封裝的預期強度。

And when I look at your foundry logic business in the current quarter, where Taiwan actually fell sequentially. It looks like you're seeing some good business from rapidness and mass currently Intel. So can you speak to perhaps the breadth of foundry logic that you're seeing early 2025? And I would think that would be a complete offset to a slowdown in China. Would love to hear your thoughts?

當我查看本季度你們的代工邏輯業務時，台灣實際上連續下降。看起來你正在從英特爾目前的速度和品質中看到一些不錯的業務。那麼能否談談您在 2025 年初看到的代工邏輯的廣度？我認為這將完全抵消中國經濟放緩的影響。想聽聽您的想法嗎？

Yes. I would expect, given the -- I'll say this, just given the normal ramp schedule that our leading foundry customer executes against -- but normally, you'd start to see those will start to ship in volume in the first part of the year.

是的。我預計，考慮到——我想說的是，考慮到我們領先的代工客戶執行的正常產能計劃——但通常情況下，你會開始看到這些將在第一部分開始批量發貨。年。

Okay. Great. And then a gross margin question for you. It looks like semi process control gross margins dropped maybe 150 bps sequentially in September and you attribute that to mix. So as we look forward, how should we think about those margins kind of normalizing? And what kind of run rate should we remodel into and through 2025?

好的。偉大的。然後是毛利率問題。看起來半流程控制毛利率在 9 月環比下降了 150 個基點，您將其歸因於混合。因此，展望未來，我們該如何看待這些利潤率的正常化？到 2025 年以及到 2025 年，我們應該重塑什麼樣的運行率？

Yes. Mix is always a factor, C.J., for me. So I would say that normally, our incremental margin model suggests about a 60% to 65% incremental. The mix variability can cause movement across quarters.

是的。 C.J.，對我來說，混合始終是個因素。所以我想說，通常情況下，我們的增量保證金模型建議增量約為 60% 至 65%。混合變化可能會導致跨季度的變動。

But if you look at it over longer periods of time, it tends to stick pretty closely to that. the packaging opportunities have been great opportunities from a growth point of view. But currently, we're selling some lower end systems into that part of the market. So it is affecting the mix a bit, although we're encouraged about the trend there for the need for more capability moving forward.

但如果你長期觀察，你會發現它往往與這一點非常接近。從成長的角度來看，包裝機會是一個很好的機會。但目前，我們正在向該部分市場銷售一些低階系統。因此，它對混合產生了一些影響，儘管我們對未來需要更多能力的趨勢感到鼓舞。

So it's those kinds of issues. I would say that we're operating here in this, I'll call it, 61.5% range. And at current run rates, as we sort of project out into next year, I think we're likely to be north of that route versus south of that as we move forward. That's probably the best I can do.

就是這樣的問題。我想說的是，我們的操作範圍是我稱之為 61.5% 的範圍。按照目前的運行速度，當我們預計到明年時，我認為隨著我們的前進，我們很可能會在這條路線的北部，而不是在這條路線的南部。這可能是我能做的最好的事了。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Tom O'Malley, Barclays.

湯姆·奧馬利，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to ask specifically on the man market. So you guys are coming off a really low base in September, but there's a bit of a debate right now if you look out into calendar year '25 about where normal capacity is for historical NAND and where you're moving potentially to technology transitions and what that means from an equipment perspective.

嘿，夥計們。感謝您提出問題。我只是想具體詢問一下男性市場。因此，你們在 9 月的基數非常低，但如果你們展望 25 年，現在存在一些爭論，即歷史 NAND 的正常產能在哪裡，以及技術轉型的潛力和方向。 。

So I guess maybe the broader question is, what are you seeing in the NAND market? Are you seeing intensity kind of pick up there? Are you seeing customers look to expand lines?

所以我想也許更廣泛的問題是，您在 NAND 市場中看到了什麼？您是否看到那裡的強度增加？您是否看到客戶希望擴大產品線？

Or are you seeing that technology upgrade as well any comments on what is driving that NAND growth into next year? And just your take on the market would be the first one?

或者您是否看到了技術升級以及對推動明年 NAND 成長的因素有何評論？您對市場的看法會是第一個嗎？

Well, at a pretty low base. So as we think about next year, we would expect some incremental investment next year, but again, off of a very low base. Mostly, what we're seeing is utilization rates get better. We're seeing our customers financial performance, improving inventory levels, improving things like that.

嗯，基數相當低。因此，當我們考慮明年時，我們預計明年會有一些增量投資，但同樣，基數非常低。大多數情況下，我們看到利用率有所提高。我們看到客戶的財務表現、庫存水準得到改善，諸如此類的事情得到改善。

So we think that translates into some investment into next year, but we don't see it really growing a lot on an absolute dollar basis. But it is operating are coming off a very low level. So I think we're optimistic on some incremental business there as we move into next year.

因此，我們認為這將轉化為明年的一些投資，但我們並沒有看到它在絕對美元基礎上真正增長很多。但它的運作水準非常低。因此，我認為，隨著我們進入明年，我們對那裡的一些增量業務持樂觀態度。

Yeah, the one technology trend that will help process control intensity for NAND is the wafer to wafer bonding. But other than that, we're not really pushing the technology compared to DRAM or logic.

是的，有助於提高 NAND 製程控制強度的技術趨勢之一是晶圓間鍵結。但除此之外，與 DRAM 或邏輯相比，我們並沒有真正推動這項技術。

Got you. Super helpful. And then the second is just on the advanced packaging side. You guys spent a decent amount of time on the last call, talking on the topic, and I think increasingly, you're seeing the move to hybrid bonding kind of accelerate. So others are kind of saying 2026 time frame. But are you seeing some opportunities in 2025?

明白你了。超有幫助。第二個是在先進封裝方面。你們在最後一次通話中花了相當多的時間討論這個話題，我認為，你們越來越多地看到向混合粘合的轉變正在加速。所以其他人都說 2026 年的時間框架。但您在 2025 年看到了一些機會嗎？

And could you just try to shape like the size of that business today and some of the opportunities that you're kind of reaching down. Some of your smaller competitors are kind of talking about seeing you in some of those areas already, but any comments there would be helpful as well?

您是否可以嘗試塑造當今該業務的規模以及您正在接觸的一些機會。您的一些較小的競爭對手已經在談論在其中一些領域見到您，但是那裡的任何評論也會有幫助嗎？

Yes, you have development activity there, but we don't expect any move from a production point of view to the hybrid bonding as it relates to high-bandwidth memory until probably at least into the '26, '27 time frame.

是的，那裡有開發活動，但我們預計至少在 26 年、27 年時間範圍內不會從生產角度轉向混合鍵合，因為它與高頻寬記憶體相關。

So what's really driving that part of the business for us is -- mostly on the logic side, although we're encouraged by some of the trends we're seeing in memory in terms of opportunity, HPM devices themselves create higher process control opportunities.

因此，真正推動我們這部分業務的是——主要是在邏輯方面，儘管我們對記憶體中看到的一些機會趨勢感到鼓舞，但 HPM 設備本身創造了更高的製程控制機會。

Because not only do you have the silicon trade in terms of bits per wafer, if you will, but you also have higher reliability requirements. You had the logic circuitry that has to be processed you've got stack the die. So there's a lot of opportunities within that that we are encouraged by as we move forward.

因為您不僅需要以每晶圓的位數來進行矽交易（如果您願意的話），而且您還具有更高的可靠性要求。你有必須處理的邏輯電路，你已經堆疊了晶片。因此，在我們前進的過程中，有很多機會讓我們受到鼓舞。

So one of the truisms in our business for inspection metrology is what is the cost of the inspection at any step relative to the cost of the best step. And what I mean by that is if you go back in time and they were making wafers for solar, we never saw there being much opportunity because the cost of the wafer is just not very high. so it couldn't support much inspection.

因此，我們檢測計量業務中的一個不言而喻的事實是，任何步驟的檢測成本相對於最佳步驟的成本是多少。我的意思是，如果你回到過去，他們正在製造太陽能晶圓，我們從來沒有看到太多機會，因為晶圓的成本不是很高。所以它不能支援太多的檢查。

You go to the other end of that and you have the cost of an EUV reticle is so high and that the cost of failure is so high, there's a lot of money spent on the inspection. The biggest dynamic that changed in advanced packaging is the relative cost of that step and the fact that the cost can support a much higher level and a need for a much higher level of inspection capability.

另一方面，EUV 光罩的成本非常高，失敗的成本也非常高，因此在檢查上花費了很多錢。先進封裝變化的最大動態是該步驟的相對成本，以及該成本可以支援更高水準以及對更高水準偵測能力的需求。

So our view is we did not go down to that market. That market came to us because it got much more challenging. And the need for higher level inspection, if you think about HBM and you think about what's at risk for our customers, so they recognize that and they're investing much more heavily to ensure that those steps are clean because the cost of failure there is so high. And that's a big part of what's driving capital intensity and our product portfolio has moved to some of those dynamics.

所以我們的觀點是我們沒有深入到那個市場。這個市場來到我們這裡是因為它變得更具挑戰性。如果您考慮 HBM 並考慮我們的客戶面臨的風險，那麼就需要進行更高級別的檢查，因此他們認識到這一點，並且會加大投入以確保這些步驟乾淨無誤，因為失敗的成本是這麼高。這是推動資本密集度的重要因素，我們的產品組合轉向其中的一些動力。

And those will play out over the next several years, but we're already seeing early evidence of that. And the earliest indication of that was when our customers started talking to us about bringing in our front-end tools into the back end because of these challenges.

這些將在未來幾年內發揮作用，但我們已經看到了這方面的早期證據。最早的跡像是，由於這些挑戰，我們的客戶開始與我們討論將我們的前端工具引入後端。

Srinivas Pajjuri, Raymond James.

斯里尼瓦斯·帕朱里，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

So my question is on N3 versus N2 demand. I know you said both of them were strong. I'm just wondering, in terms of the near-term upside you're seeing -- is that more coming from N3? And if so, just curious if N2 is also tracking in line with your original expectations?

所以我的問題是關於 N3 與 N2 的需求。我知道你說他們兩個都很強。我只是想知道，就您所看到的近期上行空間而言，更多來自 N3 嗎？如果是這樣，只是好奇 N2 是否也符合您最初的預期？

Yes, I would say that what we've seen over the course of the second half of this year has been more N3 upside. We're starting to see billing investment with some shipments this quarter for N2. And most of what's driving next year is very (inaudible).

是的，我想說的是，我們在今年下半年看到了更多 N3 的上升空間。我們開始看到本季 N2 的一些出貨量帶來了投資。明年的大部分發展都非常（聽不清楚）。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe you can speak to the visibility, especially as China comes down next year. I'm just wondering if that has any impact on your bookings and RPO, just in general, your level of visibility as we go forward?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許你可以談談知名度，尤其是在中國明年衰落的情況下。我只是想知道這是否會對您的預訂和恢復點目標 (RPO) 產生任何影響，一般而言，您對我們前進的可見度水平有何影響？

Well, so the RPO has flattened out we'll report and you'll see the specifics on it, but it was more or less flat quarter-on-quarter expected probably to a little bit next quarter or further in the December quarter. So I would say that, in general, lead times have generally been coming in. Some of that has been, as Rick mentioned earlier, new supply or new supply capability so we can actually start to ship some tools that we've had some supply constraints relative to the demand.

好吧，所以 RPO 已經趨於平緩，我們將在報告中介紹，您會看到具體細節，但季度環比或多或少持平，預計下個季度或 12 月季度將進一步趨於平緩。所以我想說，總的來說，交貨時間普遍已經到來。於需求的約束。

It really -- I would say that as you start to see some of the greenfield projects will cause some of that to pull in, right? It's greenfield gets pulled back as some of the digestions happening. We're waiting for second round on some of those projects that the need to get into the queue earlier is less urgent.

我想說，當你開始看到一些綠地專案時，確實會導致其中一些專案投入使用，對嗎？隨著一些消化工作的發生，它的綠地被撤回。我們正在等待其中一些項目的第二輪，這些項目較早進入隊列的需要不那麼緊迫。

Although when you have new customers, they want to show commitment and so they typically will and want to sure delivery time. So they'll typically try to give us orders and make sure we're planning for them further ahead.

儘管當您有新客戶時，他們希望表現出承諾，因此他們通常會並且希望確定交貨時間。因此，他們通常會嘗試向我們下訂單，並確保我們為他們做進一步的計劃。

So I would say, in general, lead times are generally pulling in. And we've seen the RPO tick down, but now it looks like it's starting to turn around a bit, see how that progresses as we move through the rest of this quarter and into next year.

所以我想說，總的來說，交貨時間普遍在縮短。 。

Right. Thank you.

正確的。謝謝。

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

克里斯·桑卡爾，TD·考恩。

Grea. Thank you. First of all, I want to clarify something, Brent. You mentioned that China could go from 40% to 30% of sales next year, but dollar value remains the same. A, is that true? If so, then your overall revenue should still grow pretty strongly compared to what WFE is expected to be. I'm just trying to figure out how to think about those two metrics?

格瑞亞.謝謝。首先，我想澄清一些事情，布倫特。您提到明年中國的銷售額可能會從 40% 增加到 30%，但美元價值保持不變。答，這是真的嗎？如果是這樣，那麼與 WFE 的預期相比，您的整體收入應該仍會強勁增長。我只是想弄清楚如何考慮這兩個指標？

Yeah, I think it's a trend down. Look, we'll see how the year plays out. But I would expect it could be the same. It could be a little bit less. I think what we were trying to say earlier is that investment levels have been pretty stable. So we'll see how it plays out.

是的，我認為這是一個下降的趨勢。聽著，我們拭目以待這一年的表現。但我希望它可能是一樣的。可能會少一點。我認為我們之前想說的是投資水準相當穩定。所以我們會看看結果如何。

It's a little bit difficult to see into the second half of the '25 from here. So I was just trying to give you some sense of directionally where things are moving as we see next year from 1% of the overall.

從這裡觀察 25 世紀下半葉有點困難。所以我只是想讓你們了解明年我們從整體的 1% 中看到的事情的發展方向。

Got it. Got it. And then just to clarify one other thing. I know you kind of mentioned about how the foundry demand is improving in the leading edge, which kind of makes a ton of sense also from China.

知道了。知道了。然後只是為了澄清另一件事。我知道您提到了前沿的代工需求如何改善，這對中國來說也很有意義。

And then on the DRAM side, I think as mentioned in the past, process control incentives going up from 10% to 11%. Is that helping you next year or is most of it already baked in this year?

然後在 DRAM 方面，我認為如過去所提到的，製程控制激勵措施從 10% 上升到 11%。這對你明年有幫助還是大部分已經在今年完成了？

No, I think it's helping. There's a lot of momentum from certain customers, particularly as it relates to advanced DRAM and high-bandwidth memory that's creating opportunities for us. So we're encouraged with -- and as we said earlier, I said before is I'm encouraged by an expectation to see more DRAM investment next year and expect to see stronger relevance of KLA and process control in that ramp.

不，我認為這有幫助。某些客戶帶來了很大的動力，特別是與先進 DRAM 和高頻寬記憶體相關的客戶，這為我們創造了機會。因此，我們感到鼓舞 - 正如我們之前所說，我之前說過，我對明年看到更多 DRAM 投資的預期感到鼓舞，並希望看到 KLA 和工藝控制在該階段的相關性更強。

So if I go back to my comment about the cost of the semiconductor and the value of inspection, if you think about this trend for AI, it's definitely playing out in DRAM and in packaging. Right? So the DRAM for HBM is a more expensive technology.

因此，如果我回到我對半導體成本和檢查價值的評論，如果你考慮人工智慧的趨勢，它肯定會在 DRAM 和封裝中發揮作用。正確的？因此用於 HBM 的 DRAM 是一種更昂貴的技術。

It's more critical, it's larger die. These are wafers that are going to have more EUV and they also have less redundancy in them. So the combination of those factors is what will drive our customers to increase their intensity around process control.

它更關鍵，它的模具更大。這些晶圓將具有更多 EUV，而且冗餘也更少。因此，這些因素的結合將促使我們的客戶加強製程控制的力度。

Just EUV is a good example of a pretty significant application we have with our Gen 5 is printed on EUV and that dedication to having -- using a Gen5 to verify a reticle as it prints. Has been part of the driver of the success of BBP. So if you think about the trends overall, we don't quite know how it's going to play out for advanced DRAM, but the trends are very positive at this point.

Just EUV 是一個非常重要的應用的一個很好的例子，我們的 Gen 5 是在 EUV 上打印的，並且致力於在打印時使用 Gen5 來驗證掩模版。一直是 BBP 成功的推動力之一。因此，如果您考慮整體趨勢，我們不太知道先進 DRAM 將如何發揮作用，但目前的趨勢非常積極。

Joseph Moore, Morgan Stanley.

約瑟夫‧摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Thank you. On the topic of export controls, you sort of said you don't want to speculate until we hear it. I guess, how do you expect that to get conveyed? Have you had preliminary conversations it sounds like there might be more of an entity list focused this time around where you get surprised.

謝謝。關於出口管制的話題，您曾說過，在我們聽到之前您不想進行猜測。我想，您希望如何傳達這一點？您是否進行了初步對話，聽起來這次可能會有更多實體清單集中在您感到驚訝的地方。

And when you're giving a framework for next year, and as we had a much lower framework, is how much of that is informed by what you're hearing that they might do versus just kind of I guess, work at this point?

當你給出明年的框架時，由於我們的框架要低得多，其中有多少是根據你所聽到的他們可能會做的事情來了解的，而不是我猜現在的工作？

Well, so if you go back to the 2000 -- two years ago, there was some notice, but I think for the government itself, they have their own process, which involves multiple number of players. There's not one person or one group that decides. They have to go through a reconciliation across their own agencies and also when they're trying to do multilateral, they're talking to other places.

好吧，如果你回到 2000 年——兩年前，有一些通知，但我認為對於政府本身來說，他們有自己的流程，其中涉及多個參與者。不是一個人或一個團體可以決定的。他們必須在自己的機構之間進行協調，當他們試圖進行多邊合作時，他們正在與其他地方進行談判。

So I think truly nothing is decided until it's announced. And we don't get much heads up on when that's actually going to happen. So that's why we keep saying we don't know, we can't speculate. There's plenty that's been written -- but if you read all that's been written, this thing would have happened 4 times in the last nine months, right?

所以我認為在宣布之前一切都還沒決定。我們並沒有太多預知何時會真正發生。所以這就是為什麼我們一直說我們不知道，我們無法推測。已經寫了很多——但如果你讀了所有寫的，這種事情在過去九個月裡會發生四次，對吧？

So clearly, something is causing it to not get decided. And so we're not going to speculate on when it does. When it comes to what our peer companies have said, I think our forecast for 2025 hasn't changed, and it's much more in line with where others are now than what it was. So our view has not changed. Nothing about our forecast for next year has really changed in the last several months as we talk to our customers and we envision what kind of investment environment there's going to be.

很明顯，有些事情導致它無法做出決定。所以我們不會猜測它什麼時候會發生。說到我們的同業公司所說的，我認為我們對 2025 年的預測沒有改變，而且它比以前更符合其他公司現在的情況。所以我們的觀點沒有改變。在過去的幾個月裡，當我們與客戶交談並設想將會是什麼樣的投資環境時，我們對明年的預測並沒有真正改變。

That's very helpful. And then within your China business, I know you had kind of catch-up on the DRAM side that were causing DRAM to be elevated. My perception is that fact (technical difficulty) -- is it more driven by foundry at this point?

這非常有幫助。然後在你們的中國業務中，我知道你們在 DRAM 方面有所追趕，導致 DRAM 價格上漲。我的看法是這個事實（技術難度）——目前更多的是由代工廠驅動的嗎？

You started to break up there a little bit, Joe. But yes, I think what you were asking about was DRAM memory moving forward versus foundry logic. And yes, there was some catch-up investment that happened. I would expect less memory, memory to be down more in terms of the overall, I think it's going to be down as parts of the market we don't have access to.

你開始有點分手了，喬。但是，是的，我認為您問的是 DRAM 記憶體的發展與代工邏輯的比較。是的，發生了一些追趕投資。我預計記憶體會減少，總體而言記憶體會下降更多，我認為作為我們無法進入的市場的一部分，它會下降。

But in general, in terms of our business, I would expect foundry logic to modestly adjust, but still to be fairly strong. And I think infrastructure more or less continues, but that's more of a radical statement than a wafer statement.

但總的來說，就我們的業務而言，我預計代工邏輯會適度調整，但仍然相當強勁。我認為基礎設施或多或少仍在繼續，但這更像是一個激進的聲明，而不是晶圓聲明。

Yu Shi, Needham.

於時，李約瑟。

My first question. I remember a quarter ago, you talked about not just the 3-nanometer for second half this year but also next year, but we'll look at all the headlines about two, out of your 3-nanometer customers, that doesn't look like there is 3-nanometer upside from done, but the one large customer that actually the leading one they did not rule out more of the 5- to 3-nanometer conversion or even for next year. So my question really is, are you still seeing the 3-nanometer upside for 2025 given the current visibility here?

我的第一個問題。我記得一個季度前，您不僅談到了今年下半年的 3 奈米，還談到了明年，但我們會看看所有關於您的 3 奈米客戶中的兩個的頭條新聞，這看起來並不就像完成後有3 奈米的優勢一樣，但實際上是領先客戶的一個大客戶，他們並不排除更多的5 奈米到3 奈米的轉換，甚至在明年。所以我的問題是，鑑於目前的可見度，您是否仍然看到 2025 年 3 奈米的優勢？

So we had this question earlier in the call. But yes, 3-nanometer continues to be strong. And as we said earlier, we would expect 2-nanometer to be a big driver into next year, but there's still a 3-nanometer activity that is been stronger than we anticipated six months ago.

所以我們在電話會議的早些時候就提出了這個問題。但確實，3 奈米技術依然強勁。正如我們之前所說，我們預計 2 奈米將成為明年的主要推動力，但 3 奈米的活動仍然比我們六個月前的預期要強勁。

The other thing I want to ask you to make a clarification or maybe provide some color, your reported North America revenue for the September quarter seems like pretty high. I go back probably the last 8 years, it looks like it's probably the highest number of revenue you get from North America. Might if you provide some color on what's driving that big uptick in the September quarter?

我想請您澄清或提供一些資訊的另一件事是，您報告的 9 月份季度的北美收入似乎相當高。我回顧過去 8 年，看起來這可能是從北美獲得的最高收入。您能否提供一些關於推動九月季度大幅上漲的原因的資訊？

Yeah. So it was stronger and it's more leading edge centric. I'll say that.

是的。所以它更強大，更以前沿為中心。我會這麼說。

Atif Malik, Citi.

阿蒂夫·馬利克，花旗銀行。

Thank you for taking the questions. First, on China, is it possible to understand how big your wafer and reticle inspection business in China because I believe that business is a bit different from your peer that are facing maybe restrictions?

感謝您提出問題。首先，關於中國，是否可以了解你們在中國的晶圓和光罩檢測業務有多大，因為我認為該業務與你們面臨限制的同行有點不同？

Yes, if it is different, right? We're exposed to those investments. We haven't disclosed the actual amount, though. But I would say, over the last couple of years, I would say it's been somewhere between 25% and 35% of our China systems business. So it's decent, but the preponderance, obviously, is our semiconductor customers.

是的，如果不同的話，對嗎？我們面臨這些投資。但我們尚未透露實際金額。但我想說，在過去的幾年裡，它占我們中國系統業務的 25% 到 35% 之間。所以這還不錯，但顯然，我們的半導體客戶占主導地位。

Understand. And then, Brent, on the services business, given the scenario of a China demand coming down like you laid out will there be an impact on your services growth expectations of 12% to 14% longer term?

理解。然後，布倫特，關於服務業務，考慮到中國需求像您所設想的那樣下降，這會對您的服務業長期增長 12% 至 14% 的預期產生影響嗎？

Well, we're pretty bullish on service and service opportunity, and we're trending closer to the top end of that range than the bottom end. We're seeing really dynamic trends in terms of useful life and and new value offerings that we have within our service service model that is driving incremental service demand. And of course, at the shipment levels, the new tools going out, high conversion rates, ASPs generally are higher, which drives contract pricing growth. That's part of it, but also the extending useful life.

嗯，我們非常看好服務和服務機會，而且我們的趨勢更接近該範圍的高端而不是低端。我們看到了使用壽命和新價值產品的真正動態趨勢，我們的服務模式正在推動增量服務需求。當然，在出貨量水準上，新工具的推出、高轉換率、平均售價普遍較高，這推動了合約定價的成長。這是它的一部分，也是延長使用壽命的一部分。

So as we said before, it's a high mix, high complexity, relatively low-volume business. There's not a lot of redundancy.

正如我們之前所說，這是一項高度混合、高度複雜、產量相對較低的業務。沒有太多冗餘。

Customers have very high uptime expectations and so they run the tools at very high levels. They have matching requirements across the tools. So these tools are the eyes and ears in the fab. And as a result of that, customers ensure that they're operating and so that drives our service model that drives the contract stream, which is 75% plus of revenue.

客戶對正常運作時間的期望非常高，因此他們以非常高的水平運行工具。他們對各種工具都有相符的要求。因此，這些工具就是晶圓廠的眼睛和耳朵。因此，客戶確保他們正在運營，從而推動我們的服務模式推動合約流，佔收入的 75% 以上。

And yes, there are dynamics around FX, depending on some service businesses priced in local currencies that can affect the revenue line. And if you did have control, those controls affect service opportunities there. But net-net, we still feel very comfortable with our long-term model and feel like we're trending towards the high end of the model versus the low end.

是的，外匯存在動態變化，具體取決於一些以當地貨幣定價的服務業務，這可能會影響收入線。如果你確實擁有控制權，這些控制權就會影響那裡的服務機會。但淨淨，我們仍然對我們的長期模型感到非常滿意，並且感覺我們正趨向模型的高端而不是低端。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

提摩西‧阿庫裡，瑞銀集團。

Rick, I just want to be kind of clear about how much handicapping you're doing for the export control. It sounds to me like you're not really handicapping much at all, and you're just sort of waiting for it to get announced and once it gets announced, then it will impact your numbers as it does.

里克，我只是想弄清楚你對出口管製造成了多大的阻礙。在我看來，你並沒有真正造成太多障礙，你只是在等待它被宣布，一旦宣布，它就會影響你的數字。

Is that fair? Because Lam was pretty explosive that they are. They have a base assumption as to what it's going to look like, and that's and that's handicapping our guidance. Is that not the case for you? Or are you making a base assumption for the guidance as to what the exports will look like?

這樣公平嗎？因為林和他們一樣具有爆炸性。他們對它會是什麼樣子有一個基本的假設，而這阻礙了我們的指導。你不也是這樣嗎？或者您對出口情況做出了基本假設？

Well, so Tim, I'll take the first part. So as it relates to guidance, and how we're thinking about the fourth quarter, we have a guidance range. And I would say that as we contemplate all the scenarios, and of course, we have energy issues in terms of the size of our tools and so on.

好吧，提姆，我將參加第一部分。因此，由於它與指導以及我們如何看待第四季度有關，因此我們有一個指導範圍。我想說的是，當我們考慮所有場景時，當然，我們在工具的大小等方面存在能源問題。

From an ASP point of view, as we contemplate all the various scenarios, we're comfortable with the guidance range that we provided for the quarter. As it pertains to long-term impact of something that may or may not happen, we'll have to assess what it means in terms of what we have in backlog, what the forecast, how do we look at those customers and their investment plans and so on.

從平均售價的角度來看，當我們考慮所有不同的情況時，我們對本季提供的指導範圍感到滿意。由於它涉及可能發生或可能不會發生的事情的長期影響，我們必須評估這對我們的積壓、預測是什麼、我們如何看待這些客戶及其投資計劃意味著什麼等等。

So we won't have a detailed information until something happens, if it happens. But as far as it relates to near term, guidance, I think we feel comfortable with the guidance range we provided.

因此，在事情發生之前（如果發生的話），我們不會獲得詳細資訊。但就近期指導而言，我認為我們對我們提供的指導範圍感到滿意。

Okay, Bren. Then I guess just the math on next year. So you grew revenue like mid-30s this year for your China revenue, it's up mid-30s. Of your films tiers, one grew 20%, the other one is barely going to be up. And I think China WP's up about 20% this year.

好的，布倫。然後我猜只是明年的數學。因此，今年您的中國收入成長了 30 多歲，成長了 30 多歲。在你們的電影等級中，一部成長了 20%，另一部幾乎不會成長。我認為中國 WP 今年上漲了 20% 左右。

So you're up a lot more than what you're -- so almost peers are. So it doesn't matter what I think China WFE is. But when you think about how fast you grew China versus your peers, do you think there's any pull forward of your China spending maybe because there's no alternative tool that's available from a mastic Chinese company. So why not to some degree stockpile your tools and move them around as these new entities came up consolidate.

所以你比你現在的水平要高得多——所以幾乎同齡人也是如此。所以我認為中國WFE是什麼並不重要。但是，當你考慮一下你在中國的成長速度與同業相比，你是否認為你的中國支出有任何拉動，也許是因為中國乳香公司沒有其他可用的工具。那麼，為什麼不在某種程度上儲存你的工具，並在這些新實體出現整合時移動它們呢？

So I'm just wondering if you think that the hangover for you could be a little more severe than your peers?

所以我想知道你是否認為你的宿醉可能比你的同齡人更嚴重？

Tim, there's different buying patterns in terms of timing. If you look at 2023, I think, our China business undergrew our peers. So if you look at any one year in isolation, it might drive you to a conclusion, not really accurate.

提姆，在時機方面有不同的購買模式。如果你看看 2023 年，我認為我們的中國業務成長落後於同業。因此，如果你孤立地看待任何一年，它可能會讓你得出一個不準確的結論。

I mean, I think if you look at '23 and '24, I think the general activity levels of investment have been, I think, relatively consistent across most companies that have a broader period of time. Process control tends to particularly in greenfield probably get adopted more heavily early on. Because customers are monitoring very, very closely, doing a lot of sampling.

我的意思是，如果你看看 23 年和 24 年，我認為大多數擁有更廣泛時間段的公司的整體投資活動水平相對一致。過程控制往往在早期得到更廣泛的採用，尤其是在未開發領域。因為客戶正在非常非常密切地監控，進行大量採樣。

So as wafer starts start to grow, then less process control tends to diminish a bit. So there's probably some timing in terms of how they buy overall. And in '25, given where we are today, and we'll see what overall WFE, but to the earlier comments, we do expect some digestion in '25.

因此，隨著晶圓開始生長，製程控制的減少往往會減弱。因此，就他們的整體購買方式而言，可能存在一些時機。在 25 年，考慮到我們今天的處境，我們將看到 WFE 的整體情況，但對於先前的評論，我們確實預計在 25 年會得到一些消化。

Okay, Bren. Thank you.

好的，布倫。謝謝。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari，高盛。

I wanted to get your thoughts on customer mix going into '25 and any implications for margins. You mentioned China is down next year within leading-edge foundry and logic, TSMC obviously, share and growing share within WFE as well.

我想了解您對 25 年客戶組合的看法以及對利潤率的影響。您提到明年中國在領先的代工和邏輯領域的份額將會下降，顯然台積電在 WFE 中的份額也會不斷增長。

So does that or could that potentially pressure gross margins? I know your gross margin profile has been remarkably stable over many, many years, if not maybe decades. So I doubt it, but we do get this question quite a bit from investors. So curious how you're thinking about evolution in customer mix and implications for gross margins?

那麼這是否或可能會對毛利率造成壓力？我知道你們的毛利率狀況在很多年、甚至幾十年裡一直非常穩定。所以我對此表示懷疑，但我們確實從投資者那裡得到了很多這個問題。很好奇您如何考慮客戶組合的演變及其對毛利率的影響？

Yes. Our gross margins are not customer dependent. It's more product specific. So our margins don't vary across different customers. Obviously, customers that buy more tend to get volume-related incentives. But beyond obvious volume incentives, there isn't any real difference between between customers or regions in terms of overall margin.

是的。我們的毛利率不依賴客戶。它更具體。因此，我們的利潤不會因不同客戶而異。顯然，購買更多的客戶往往會獲得與數量相關的激勵。但除了明顯的銷售激勵之外，客戶或地區之間在整體利潤方面沒有任何真正的差異。

Now they all buy process control differently and at different strategies. And so all of our products carry different margins, they're not all the same. So that's one of the product mix factors that tends to drive some variability there. But yes, it's more about products than customers or regions.

現在他們都以不同的方式和不同的策略購買流程控制。因此，我們所有的產品都有不同的利潤，它們並不完全相同。因此，這是往往會導致一些變化的產品組合因素之一。但是，是的，這更多的是產品而不是客戶或地區。

Got it. And then as a quick follow-up, another one on China. I was hoping you could give us a little bit more context by application or customer type. I know you service a broader range of customers relative to some of your process tool peers. Customer groups like match shops, wafer suppliers more on the infrastructure side. I'm curious what percentage of total China those guys account for this year? And as you look forward into 2025, what kind of trends are you expecting? Thank you.

知道了。作為快速後續行動，另一則關於中國的報導。我希望您能為我們提供更多有關應用程式或客戶類型的背景資訊。我知道，相對於一些工藝工具同行，你們為更廣泛的客戶提供服務。諸如火柴店、晶圓供應商之類的客戶群更集中在基礎設施方面。我很好奇這些人今年佔中國總數的比例是多少？展望 2025 年，您預期會出現什麼樣的趨勢？謝謝。

Yeah. Earlier on the call, I mentioned percentage is probably somewhere in the 25%, maybe as high as 30% a given year. But in general, from an infrastructure point of view, that's about the mix. And I would expect that to be mostly stable, but more reticle strict than wafer in '25. So that's there.

是的。早些時候在電話會議上，我提到百分比可能在 25% 左右，可能高達 30%。但總的來說，從基礎設施的角度來看，這就是混合。我預計它會基本穩定，但比 25 年的晶圓更嚴格。就這樣。

I think we mentioned memory earlier. I think memory comes down meaningfully partly due to the investments that have happened partly due to just the lack of market access to some memory investment for us. And then I think foundry and logic corrects, but doesn't correct all that much.

我想我們之前提到過記憶。我認為記憶體的顯著下降部分是由於我們缺乏一些記憶體投資的市場准入而造成的投資。然後我認為代工和邏輯是正確的，但並沒有糾正那麼多。

Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

克里斯‧卡索，沃爾夫研究中心。

I guess, the first question is on DRAM, and kind of what you're thinking about for next year? Because it does sound like there's some divergence between different customer groups there. Most are expecting the China part of DRAM to be down pretty significantly. Can you give us a view of generally what you're seeing with regard to DRAM investment and kind of pinning from your customers as you go over next year and how that may have changed over the last quarter?

我想，第一個問題是關於 DRAM 的，您明年會考慮什麼？因為聽起來不同的客戶群之間確實存在一些差異。大多數人預計 DRAM 的中國部分將大幅下降。您能否向我們介紹明年您對 DRAM 投資和客戶固定情況的整體看法，以及上個季度可能發生的變化？

I would say it hasn't changed all that much. This year, it's been much more about our customers' business is getting better, their financial performance improving. And that some of the investment has been somewhat isolated. We mentioned China earlier as an example. We've seen utilization rates improve, which has been good for our service business.

我想說它並沒有改變那麼多。今年，我們的客戶業務越來越好，財務表現不斷改善。而且有些投資在某種程度上是孤立的。我們之前提到中國作為例子。我們看到利用率提高，這對我們的服務業務有利。

And we would expect as it relates to high in DRAM and supporting high bandwidth memory to see some incremental investment in next year. We'll have more to say from a quantitative point of view in terms of expectations around how much growth and how that translates back to KLA in the January call. But from just an overall context point of view, we expect to see a decent step-up in DRAM investment next year.

我們預計，由於它與高 DRAM 和支援高頻寬記憶體相關，明年會出現一些增量投資。在 1 月的電話會議中，我們將從定量的角度對增長量以及如何轉化為 KLA 的預期進行更多討論。但僅從整體情況來看，我們預計明年 DRAM 投資將大幅成長。

Okay. Great. My next question is that some investors are starting to ask about. And there's generally implications of what happens if leading edge tends to consolidate more than it has already. And perhaps that could be just because when leading edge customers are just growing so much more quickly than the others.

好的。偉大的。我的下一個問題是一些投資者開始詢問的。如果領先優勢趨向於比現在更鞏固，那麼通常會產生影響。也許這可能只是因為領先客戶的成長速度比其他客戶快得多。

It's probably early to make that call right now. I -- that some of your customers would disagree with that. But thinking about it now, what would the implications be if we saw more consolidation? Would that provide some pressure because just more suppliers than simply more suppliers and customers?

現在做出這個決定可能還為時過早。我——你的一些客戶會不同意這一點。但現在想想，如果我們看到更多的整合，會產生什麼影響？這是否會因為更多的供應商而不是更多的供應商和客戶而帶來一些壓力？

I think it would depend on the drivers. In other words, in a world where there was a single driver for the leading edge, say, take a microprocessor and it had been made at multiple places, then you'd argue, sure. Consolidation would be more efficient.

我認為這取決於司機。換句話說，在一個前沿只有單一驅動器的世界中，比如說，採用一個微處理器，並且它是在多個地方製造的，那麼你肯定會爭論。整合會更有效率。

What's interesting now is because there are so many advanced designs, the efficiency you need scale to have efficiency and they already have that scale. So I don't think it changes that much. I do think you have some people still making investments to do leading edge, say, in Japan, for example. And they're hoping to get part of the market.

現在有趣的是，因為有這麼多的先進設計，你需要規模化才能實現效率，而它們已經具備了這樣的規模。所以我認為變化不會太大。我確實認為有些人仍在進行投資以實現領先，例如在日本。他們希望獲得部分市場。

Our assumption is that it remains at about the efficiency and the way we measure that and model for it as we think about what is the capital efficiency or the intensity of capital and process control for that segment as we go forward. And we're not really modeling it to go up significantly because there's a lot of players at the leading edge.

我們的假設是，當我們繼續思考該細分市場的資本效率或資本強度和流程控制時，它仍然與效率以及我們衡量效率和建模的方式有關。我們並沒有真正對其進行建模，使其顯著上升，因為有很多玩家處於領先地位。

Truthfully, there haven't been. I mean, for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge. And so that's for most of the volume. So we're kind of already there. If that were to change, that might drive up intensity beyond what we're modeling more so than go the other way.

說實話，還沒有。我的意思是，多年來，我們實際上主要只有一位處於領先地位的主要參與者。這就是大部分內容。所以我們已經在那裡了。如果這種情況改變，那麼強度可能會超出我們建模的範圍，而不是相反。

Does that make sense?

這樣有道理嗎？

Yes. Yes. That's a something we're thinking about. Thank you.

是的。是的。這是我們正在考慮的事情。謝謝。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, we do have time for one more question today.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Blayne Curtis, Jefferies.

布萊恩·柯蒂斯，杰弗里斯。

Hey, thanks for squeezing me in tonight. I feel that would be the last question and giving you this one. But I was just kind of curious to your perspective, you're on in the three that kind of does give an outlook for the market. So I appreciate that greatly.

嘿，謝謝你今晚擠我進來。我覺得這是最後一個問題，現在給你這個問題。但我只是對你的觀點感到好奇，你在這三個方面確實給了市場的前景。所以我非常感激。

We have had a handful of companies already report, I think, generally, consensus is kind of double digits for everybody. And I don't think people have brought them down below that. I was just kind of curious, as you assess the market, I know I guess I appreciate you trying to put something out there, but a low single-digit growth. It just seems low.

我們已經有幾家公司報告了，我認為，總的來說，每個人的共識都是兩位數。我不認為人們已經把它們降到了這個水平以下。我只是有點好奇，當你評估市場時，我知道我想我很欣賞你試圖推出一些東西，但增長率較低。只是看起來很低而已。

So I'm just kind of curious, one, I think your numbers are up double digits. It seems like your tone would suggest that, that's maybe the right trajectory. So I'm just kind of curious where that outlook came from. And I think in general, do people have it wrong, I guess?

所以我只是有點好奇，一，我認為你的數字上升了兩位數。你的語氣似乎表明，這可能是正確的軌跡。所以我只是好奇這種觀點是從何而來。我認為總的來說，人們的想法是錯的嗎？

I'm sorry, what period of time are you talking about?

抱歉，你說的是哪段時間？

For '25, all right? I mean, the WFE forecast that you put out, I appreciate you putting it out, right? But you said high (inaudible).

25歲的，好嗎？我的意思是，對於您發布的 WFE 預測，我很感激您發布它，對吧？但你說高（聽不清楚）。

No, we haven't put it out a we provided an update to our '24 view that we actually see '24 in the high-90s versus the mid-90s, which is what we what we said three months ago. So as it relates to 2025, we haven't actually put a number out there. The only thing we talked about is in reference to our own business, in our views of current run rate a reasonable amount of stability here moving forward.

不，我們還沒有把它公佈出來，我們提供了 24 世紀觀點的更新，我們實際上看到 24 世紀是 90 年代中期，而不是 90 年代中期，這就是我們三個月前所說的。因此，由於涉及 2025 年，我們實際上還沒有給出一個數字。我們談論的唯一一件事是關於我們自己的業務，我們認為當前的運行率在未來具有合理的穩定性。

I apologize. That was my mistake. I just want to ask on the other one on the China outlook. So thought you were talking about your kind of prospective end markets in China being down. I just want to make sure I heard you. I know you had a couple of questions on this. I apologize for the clarity there as well.

我道歉。那是我的錯。我只想問另一個關於中國前景的問題。所以我想你是在談論中國的潛在終端市場正在下滑。我只是想確保我聽到了你的聲音。我知道您對此有幾個問題。我也為那裡的清晰度表示歉意。

But you said December down, I think you said 35% of revenue. So it would be down as a dollar amount, but then you said kind of flat kind of for the rest of the year. And I thought I heard you say that then it still dropped as a percent of revenue, which is another way you can kind of back into, I guess, what you're seeing in growth.

但你說 12 月下降，我想你說的是收入的 35%。因此，以美元計，它會有所下降，但你說今年剩餘時間會持平。我想我聽到你說，然後它佔收入的百分比仍然下降，我想這是你可以恢復到你所看到的成長的另一種方式。

So I was just trying to understand if that's the mechanics of what you said. And I guess that's another way you can kind of back into double-digit growth. I know you're trying to put it out there. I just want to understand what you said?

所以我只是想了解這是否是你所說的機制。我想這是恢復兩位數成長的另一種方式。我知道你想把它放在那裡。我只是想明白你說的是什麼？

Yes. So maybe -- this is Rick, let me try to clarify our view. We said earlier in the year that we think one of the things we're doing is preparing for growth at the leading edge. That's where we think we are now. We think the growth in the next year is going to come from the leading edge. And that's both in memory as it pertains to high bandwidth and a lot of the work that's going on. It has to do with advanced packaging and it has to do with advanced logic foundry.

是的。所以也許——這是里克，讓我試著澄清我們的觀點。我們在今年稍早表示，我們認為我們正在做的事情之一就是為領先的成長做好準備。這就是我們認為現在的情況。我們認為明年的成長將來自領先優勢。這都在記憶體中，因為它涉及高頻寬和正在進行的大量工作。它與先進封​​裝有關，與先進邏輯代工廠有關。

The other business, such as that we've had, for example, in China, we don't know exactly, but that's not leading edge. That's a mature business. And we think it's too early to say. But when we look to '25 and then look beyond to the model we had for '26 or even what we'll start talking about 2030, we think we're getting back to the historical levels where leading edge is what's driving the growth.

其他業務，例如我們在中國的業務，我們並不清楚，但這不是領先優勢。這是一項成熟的業務。我們認為現在說還為時過早。但當我們展望 25 年，然後展望 26 年的模型，甚至我們將開始談論的 2030 年時，我們認為我們正在回到歷史水平，即領先優勢是推動成長的因素。

It's the largest percent of the business and the legacy will be a smaller percent. When exactly that happens, we don't know, but that's the trend that we're seeing. And what we're seeing is very good indications of strength in leading edge based on the design starts and based on the conversations with customers.

它佔業務的最大比例，而遺產將佔較小的比例。這種情況具體何時發生，我們不知道，但這就是我們所看到的趨勢。我們所看到的是基於設計開始和與客戶的對話，很好地表明了領先優勢的實力。

In the last quarter, for the first time in quite a long time, our leading-edge customers have been asking for acceleration, more systems than they'd originally planned for, and they want to make sure we can support them and install them that's what gives us the confidence that '25 is going to be driven by investment in the leading edge.

在上個季度，很長一段時間以來第一次，我們的領先客戶一直在要求加速，要求比他們最初計劃的更多的系統，他們希望確保我們能夠支持他們並安裝他們是什麼讓我們有信心「25」將由前沿投資驅動。

Thanks, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you, Blayne, and thank you, everybody, for your interest, for your time. We'll be following up with many of you in the following days.

謝謝你，布萊恩，也謝謝大家的關注和抽出時間。我們將在接下來的幾天內對你們中的許多人進行跟進。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator for any concluding instructions.

然後，我會將電話轉回接線生以獲取任何結論性指示。

Thank you, Mr. Kessel. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude the KLA Corporation September quarter 2024 earnings call and webcast.

謝謝你，凱塞爾先生。女士們、先生們，KLA 公司 2024 年 9 月季度的財報電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。

Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

此時請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。