科磊 (KLAC) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季營收為 31.75 億美元,年增 24%,高於指引區間高端;Non-GAAP EPS 為 9.38 美元,GAAP EPS 為 9.06 美元,均優於預期。
    • 上修 2025 年先進封裝系統相關營收預估至 9.25 億美元(前次預估為 8.5 億美元);維持 2025 年 WFE 市場中個位數成長的展望。
    • 盤後市場反應未提及;但公司強調持續擴大市占率並優於 WFE 整體成長。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 基礎建設推動先進製程、HBM(高頻寬記憶體)、先進封裝需求強勁,帶動營收與市占提升。
      • 先進封裝系統需求持續上修,2025 年營收預估較去年成長超過 80%。
      • Process Control Intensity(製程控制密度)因設計複雜度、先進封裝、HBM、AI 大型晶片等趨勢持續提升,推升 KLA 產品滲透率。
      • 服務事業穩健成長,Q2 服務營收 7.03 億美元,年增 14%,連續 52 季年增。
    • 風險:
      • 中國市場需求預期 2025 年下滑 10-15%,2026 年仍有下行壓力,地緣政治與出口管制為不確定因素。
      • 全球新關稅政策對毛利率造成 50-100 bps 壓力,長期影響尚待觀察。
      • 部分產品線如 patterning 受先進光刻需求波動影響,短期成長較緩。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 先進封裝系統營收:2025 年預估 9.25 億美元,較去年 5 億美元大幅成長,且高於前次預估的 8.5 億美元。
    • 服務事業營收:Q2 達 7.03 億美元,季增 5%,年增 14%,連續 52 季年增。
    • Process Control Systems(檢測與圖形化):2025 年迄今年增 35%,其中 inspection 年增 50%,patterning 持平。
    • 中國營收占比:Q2 為 30%,預期全年約 30%,較 2024 年 41% 明顯下降。
  4. 財務預測
    • Q3(9 月季)營收預估 31.5 億美元(±1.5 億美元),全年營收維持穩定。
    • 2025 年全年毛利率預估約 62.5%,Q3 指引為 62%(±1 個百分點),受系統組合與關稅影響。
    • Q3 營運費用預估 6.15 億美元,持續投入產品開發與基礎建設。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 2026 年成長展望與客戶需求能見度?
      A: 目前與客戶討論正向,AI 與高效能運算驅動領先製程投資,DRAM(HBM)需求強勁,Flash 市場也有回溫跡象。中國市場預期 2025、2026 年投資下滑,但整體產業動能樂觀。
    • Q: Process Control Systems 中 inspection 強勁成長、patterning 持平的原因?未來市占展望?
      A: inspection 受惠於供應瓶頸解除與 AI、先進封裝需求,patterning 受先進光刻需求波動影響,預期下半年 patterning 會轉強。2025 年 reticle inspection 將創新高,整體 process control intensity 持續提升。
    • Q: 先進封裝營收多次上修,增長動能來自何處?
      A: AI 基礎建設、2.5D/3D 封裝、HBM 堆疊等需求推升,產品組合與市占提升,客戶採用動能強,預期成長趨勢才剛開始。
    • Q: HBM 對 process control intensity 的影響?KLA 受益程度?
      A: HBM 導入後,製程控制密度較傳統 DRAM 明顯提升,KLA 產品滲透率增加,預估 process control intensity 較 pre-EUV 時代提升約 200 bps。
    • Q: 關稅對毛利率的影響與因應措施?
      A: 2025 年毛利率預估 62.5%,關稅影響 50-100 bps,正評估供應鏈與流程優化以降低影響,未來若有進展會再更新。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Bou, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation June quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions)

    大家下午好。我叫 Bou,今天我將擔任您的會議接線生。現在,我歡迎大家參加 KLA Corporation 2025 年 6 月季度收益電話會議和網路廣播。(操作員指示)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Kevin Kessel, Vice President of Investor Relations and Market Analytics.

    現在,我想將電話轉給投資者關係和市場分析副總裁 Kevin Kessel。

  • Kevin Kessel - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Kevin Kessel - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Welcome to the June 2025 quarterly earnings call. I am joined by our CEO Rick Wallace; and our CFO, Bren Higgins. We'll discuss today's results as well as our September quarter outlook released after the market closed and available on our website along with supplemental materials.

    歡迎參加 2025 年 6 月季度財報電話會議。與我一同出席的還有我們的執行長 Rick Wallace 和財務長 Bren Higgins。我們將討論今天的業績以及市場收盤後發布的 9 月季度展望,該展望與補充資料一起發佈在我們的網站上。

  • We are presenting today's discussion and metrics on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. All for references may refer to calendar years. The earnings materials contain a detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results.

    除非另有說明,我們將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現今天的討論和指標。所有參考資料可能均指日曆年份。收益資料包含 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的詳細對帳。

  • KLA's IR website also contains future events, presentations, corporate governance information, and links to our SEC filings. Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the disclosure of risk factors in our SEC filings.

    KLA 的 IR 網站還包含未來事件、簡報、公司治理資訊以及我們 SEC 文件的連結。我們今天的評論受到我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中披露的風險因素所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。

  • Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are also subject to those risks, and KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

    任何前瞻性陳述,包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述,也都受這些風險的影響,並且 KLA 不能保證這些前瞻性陳述會成真。我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有很大差異。

  • Rick will start with introductory comments on the business environment and our quarter, followed by Bren with financial highlights and our outlook. Now over to Rick.

    里克 (Rick) 將首先介紹商業環境和我們的季度情況,然後布倫 (Bren) 將介紹財務亮點和我們的展望。現在輪到 Rick 了。

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Kevin. I'm going to cover KLA business highlights for the June 2025 quarter, including commentary on KLA's relevance in the AI infrastructure build out.

    謝謝,凱文。我將介紹 2025 年 6 月季度的 KLA 業務亮點,包括對 KLA 在 AI 基礎設施建設中的相關性的評論。

  • For the June quarter, KLA's results were strong across the board, and we were at or above the high-end of our guidance ranges. Specifically, revenue was $3.175 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $9.38 and GAAP diluted EPS was $9.06.

    就六月季度而言,KLA 的業績全面強勁,達到或超過了我們預期範圍的高端。具體而言,營收為 31.75 億美元。非公認會計準則稀釋每股收益為 9.38 美元,GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 9.06 美元。

  • We also had record free cash flow of over a billion dollars for the quarter. KLA's leadership and process control has put the company in a unique position. At the center of enabling success for our customers to build out infrastructure to support artificial intelligence, prioritize investment to ramp AI capabilities has fueled growth at the leading edge across the semiconductor industry through more complex designs, faster product cycles, higher value wafers, and increased demand for advanced packaging.

    本季我們也創下了超過 10 億美元的自由現金流記錄。KLA 的領導力和流程控制使公司處於獨特的地位。為了讓我們的客戶能夠成功建構支援人工智慧的基礎設施,我們優先投資提升人工智慧能力,透過更複雜的設計、更快的產品週期、更高價值的晶圓以及對先進封裝的需求增加,推動了整個半導體產業前沿的成長。

  • In DRAM, investments in AI have been focused on high bandwidth memory. Which demands higher performance, enhanced reliability, reduced redundancy, and more sophisticated logic circuitry at base dye chips that control the HBM stack.

    在 DRAM 領域,對 AI 的投資主要集中在高頻寬記憶體。這要求控制 HBM 堆疊的基染料晶片具有更高的性能、更高的可靠性、更少的冗餘度以及更複雜的邏輯電路。

  • Demand for leading edge logic, HBM, and advanced packaging capabilities are the key contributors to KLA's performance in the June quarter.

    對前沿邏輯、HBM 和先進封裝能力的需求是 KLA 6 月季度業績的主要貢獻者。

  • The importance of process control continues to increase due to semiconductor scaling, new architectures and materials, and increasing designs. In particular, process control can improve time to results by debugging process integration challenges in the fab ramp phase and optimizing yield across a high volume manufacturing environment with high semiconductor device design mix.

    由於半導體規模不斷擴大、新架構和新材料以及設計的不斷增加,製程控制的重要性不斷增加。具體來說,製程控制可以透過在晶圓廠爬坡階段調試製程整合挑戰以及在具有高半導體裝置設計組合的大批量製造環境中優化產量來縮短獲得結果的時間。

  • Additionally, the evolution and complexity of requirements for advanced packaging is creating new opportunities for the value of KLA's process control and process solutions.

    此外,先進封裝要求的演變和複雜性為 KLA 製程控制和製程解決方案的價值創造了新的機會。

  • Finally, this leads to increased relevance for KLA service business as KLA systems become more technically complex, are utilized for longer periods in the path with customers where they're expecting optimal tool performance and availability. To deliver solutions to meet this demand, the company leverages the KLA operating model to focus on prioritizing productizing new innovations in our product roadmaps and ensuring that our business operations can scale and execute to capitalize on strong growth and expanded market share in the most critical markets for our customers.

    最後,隨著 KLA 系統在技術上變得越來越複雜,並且在客戶期望獲得最佳工具效能和可用性的路徑中使用時間更長,這將導致 KLA 服務業務的相關性增加。為了提供滿足此需求的解決方案,公司利用 KLA 營運模式,專注於優先將產品路線圖中的新創新產品化,並確保我們的業務營運能夠擴展和執行,從而為我們的客戶在最關鍵的市場中實現強勁增長和擴大市場份額。

  • To date we've seen no material changes in customer demands or unannounced investment plans. As a result, our WFE assessment for 2025 is consistent with our expectations that were stated last quarter.

    到目前為止,我們尚未發現客戶需求或未公佈的投資計畫發生重大變化。因此,我們對 2025 年 WFE 的評估與上個季度提出的預期一致。

  • There are more details about this quarter's highlights in our shareholder letter, but in short, KLA grew revenue 24% year-over-year in the June quarter with sustained strong investment in leading edge foundry logic and HBM.

    我們的股東信中詳細介紹了本季的亮點,但簡而言之,KLA 在 6 月季度的營收年增了 24%,這得益於對領先的代工邏輯和 HBM 的持續強勁投資。

  • This quarter also marked another period of strong momentum for advanced packaging portfolio. We now expect advanced packaging systems related revenue to exceed $925 million in calendar 2025, up from our previous estimate of $850 million last quarter and over $500 million last year. In services, our business grew to $703 million in the June quarter of 5% sequentially and 14% year-over-year.

    本季也標誌著先進封裝產品組合的另一個強勁發展時期。我們現在預計先進封裝系統相關收入將在 2025 年超過 9.25 億美元,高於我們先前估計的上個季度的 8.5 億美元和去年的 5 億美元以上。在服務領域,我們的業務在第二季度成長至 7.03 億美元,較上季成長 5%,較去年同期成長 14%。

  • Finally, the June quarter was strong from the cash flow and capital returns perspective. The quarter of free cash flow topped $1 billion for the first time, ending at $1.065 billion.

    最後,從現金流和資本回報的角度來看,六月季度表現強勁。本季自由現金流首次突破10億美元,達到10.65億美元。

  • For the last 12 months, free cash flow was $3.75 billion with a free cash flow margin of 31% over the same period. Total capital return in the June quarter was $680 million comprised of $426 million share repurchases and $254 million in dividends. Total capital return over the past 12 months was [$3.05].

    過去 12 個月,自由現金流為 37.5 億美元,同期自由現金流利潤率為 31%。六月當季的總資本回報為 6.8 億美元,其中包括 4.26 億美元的股票回購和 2.54 億美元的股息。過去 12 個月的總資本報酬率為[3.05美元]。

  • June quarter results reaffirm our leadership and process control and the strength of our broad and differentiated portfolio. They also demonstrate the essential role KLA's products and services play in supporting semiconductor industry growth.

    六月季度的業績再次證明了我們的領導地位和流程控制力以及我們廣泛而差異化的產品組合的實力。它們也展示了 KLA 的產品和服務在支持半導體產業成長方面的重要作用。

  • Our consistent execution reflects the resilience of the KLA operating model, the dedication of our global teams, and our disciplined capital allocation to invest in our business over the long run and maximize long-term shareholder value.

    我們始終如一的執行力反映了 KLA 營運模式的彈性、我們全球團隊的奉獻精神以及我們嚴謹的資本配置,以便長期投資於我們的業務並最大化長期股東價值。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Bren.

    說完這些,我會把電話轉給布倫。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Rick. KLA's June quarter results are strong. Revenue was $3.175 billion above the guidance midpoint of $3.075 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $9.38 above its guidance range. The GAAP diluted EPS was $9.06 which was at the upper end of the guidance range.

    謝謝,里克。KLA 六月季度業績強勁。營收為 31.75 億美元,高於預期中位數 30.75 億美元。非公認會計準則稀釋每股收益比指導範圍高出 9.38 美元。GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 9.06 美元,處於指導範圍的上限。

  • If the guided tax rate of 13.5%, non-GAAP diluted earnings per share would have been $9. Gross margin was 63.2%, slightly above the midpoint of guidance as the quarter played out mostly as expected. Operating expenses were $603 million about $8 million above the guidance midpoint.

    如果指導稅率為 13.5%,非 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘將為 9 美元。毛利率為 63.2%,略高於預期中位數,本季業績基本符合預期。營運費用為 6.03 億美元,比指導中點高出約 800 萬美元。

  • Operating expenses were comprised of $353 million in R&D and $250 million in SG&A. Operating margin was 44.2%. Other income and expense net was a $23 million dollar expense with upside from guidance provided by a favorable mark to market adjustment of the strategic supplier investment.

    營運費用包括 3.53 億美元的研發費用和 2.5 億美元的銷售、一般及行政費用。營業利益率為44.2%。其他收入和支出淨額為 2300 萬美元,由於戰略供應商投資的有利市價調整,其盈利空間比預期更大。

  • The quarterly effected tax rate was 9.9%, well below guidance as various discrete items impacted the quarters sold. Net income was $1.24 billion, GAAP net income was $1.2 billion. Cash flow from operations was $1.16 billion, and free cash flow was $1.06 billion.

    季度稅率為 9.9%,遠低於指導值,因為各種單獨項目影響了季度銷售。淨收入為12.4億美元,GAAP淨收入為12億美元。經營現金流為 11.6 億美元,自由現金流為 10.6 億美元。

  • The breakdown of revenue by reportable segments and in markets and major products and regions can be found within the shareholder letter and slides. Moving to the balance sheet, we ended with $4.5 billion in total cash, cash equivalent of marketable securities, and debt of $5.9 billion. The company has a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by strong investment grade ratings from all three major rating agencies.

    股東信和幻燈片中可以找到按報告分部以及市場、主要產品和地區劃分的收入明細。從資產負債表來看,我們最終擁有 45 億美元的現金、有價證券的現金等價物和 59 億美元的債務。該公司的債券期限結構靈活且具有吸引力,並獲得了三大評級機構的強勁投資等級評級。

  • The cornerstone of KLA's business, its consistent strong free cash flow generation driven by one of the best operating models in the industry and a predictable and highly differentiated service business. This helps drive a comprehensive capital return strategy that includes consistent dividend growth and increasing share repurchases over the long term.

    KLA 業務的基石是其持續強勁的自由現金流產生,這得益於業內最佳營運模式之一以及可預測且高度差異化的服務業務。這有助於推動全面的資本回報策略,包括持續的股息成長和長期增加的股票回購。

  • Our recent actions emphasize our commitment to capital returns and our confidence in the long term shareholder value accretion of KLA. On April 30, 2025, we announced the 16th consecutive annual dividend increase, which was up 12% to [$1.09] per share per quarter or an annualized dividend of $7.60 per share. Along with this action, we also announced a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization.

    我們最近的行動強調了我們對資本回報的承諾以及對 KLA 長期股東價值成長的信心。2025 年 4 月 30 日,我們宣布連續第 16 次增加年度股息,上漲 12% 至每季每股 [1.09 美元],或年度股息為每股 7.60 美元。除了這項行動之外,我們還宣布了新的 50 億美元股票回購授權。

  • I'll now turn to the outlook. It remains driven by increasing investment and leading into logic, high bandwidth memory, and advanced packaging. For WFE in 2025, as stated earlier, we are maintaining our original outlook for mid-single digit growth in WFE from approximately $100 billion in 2024.

    現在我來談談展望。它仍然受到增加投資和引領邏輯、高頻寬記憶體和先進封裝的推動。對於 2025 年的 WFE,如前所述,我們維持原有的預測,即 WFE 將從 2024 年的約 1000 億美元實現中等個位數成長。

  • This growth is expected to be driven principally by increasing investment in both leading edge foundry logic and memory to support growing AI and premium mobile demand, partially offset by lower overall demand from China.

    預計這一增長主要得益於對尖端代工邏輯和內存的投資增加,以支持不斷增長的人工智慧和高端移動需求,但中國整體需求的下降將部分抵消這一增長。

  • Giving KLA strong business momentum, expanding market share opportunities, and higher process control intensity is the leading edge across all segments, we remain confident in our ability to outperform the overall WFE market in 2025.

    憑藉 KLA 強勁的業務發展勢頭、不斷擴大的市場份額機會以及更高的過程控制強度,我們在所有領域都處於領先地位,我們仍然有信心在 2025 年超越整個 WFE 市場。

  • Finally, early customer discussions are constructive on expectations for calendar year 2026 to be a growth year for the industry.

    最後,早期的客戶討論對 2026 年將成為產業成長年的預期具有建設性。

  • KLA unique product portfolio differentiation and value proposition are focused on enabling technology transitions, accelerating process node capacity ramps, and ensuring yield entitlement and high volume production.

    KLA 獨特的產品組合差異化和價值主張專注於實現技術轉型、加速製程節點產能提升以及確保產量權利和大批量生產。

  • We continue to be encouraged that our customer discussions on product roadmaps and capacity planning have remained consistent. In this industry environment, KLA will stay focused on supporting customers, executing product road maps, and driving productivity across the enterprise.

    我們繼續感到鼓舞的是,我們與客戶就產品路線圖和產能規劃的討論始終保持一致。在這種產業環境下,KLA 將繼續專注於支援客戶、執行產品路線圖以及提高整個企業的生產力。

  • KLA September quarter guidance is as follows. Total revenue is expected to be $3.15 billion plus or minus $150 million. Our quarterly revenue expectation of general stability for the remainder of the calendar year remains consistent with that articulated over the past two quarters.

    KLA 9 月份季度指引如下。預計總收入為 31.5 億美元,上下浮動 1.5 億美元。我們對今年剩餘時間季度營收整體穩定的預期與過去兩季的預期一致。

  • Foundry/Logic revenue from semiconductor customers is forecasted to be approximately 75%, and memory is expected to be approximately 25% of semi-process control systems revenue to semiconductor customers.

    預計來自半導體客戶的晶圓代工/邏輯收入將佔半導體客戶半製程控制系統收入的約 75%,而記憶體收入預計將佔半導體客戶半製程控制系統收入的約 25%。

  • Within memory, DRAM is expected to be about 79% and NAND the remaining 21%. As always, these business mixed approximate approximations are for our semiconductor customers only and do not completely represent our aggregate process control systems revenue.

    在記憶體中,DRAM 預計佔約 79%,NAND 佔剩餘的 21%。與往常一樣,這些業務混合近似值僅針對我們的半導體客戶,並不完全代表我們的整體製程控制系統收入。

  • Gross margin is forecasted to be 62% plus or minus 1-percentage-point, reflecting a slightly weaker systems revenue mix expectation and a 50 basis points to 100 basis points impact from announced global tariffs. This tariff impact estimate is below our original estimate of roughly 100 basis points headwind to gross margin that we discussed last quarter.

    預計毛利率為 62%(上下浮動 1 個百分點),反映出系統收入組合預期略微減弱,以及已公佈的全球關稅帶來 50 個基點至 100 個基點的影響。這項關稅影響估計低於我們上個季度討論過的對毛利率約 100 個基點的不利影響的最初估計。

  • This environment is new to our industry, and the long-term tariff situation remains unclear. We continue to assess the impact across our business and identify potential mitigation actions to reduce our exposure to this headwind over time. We will provide periodic updates on our assessment when appropriate.

    這種環境對我們的產業來說是全新的,長期關稅狀況仍不明朗。我們將繼續評估對我們業務的影響,並確定潛在的緩解措施,以減少我們隨著時間的推移受到這種不利因素的影響。我們將在適當的時候定期更新我們的評估。

  • For calendar 2025, based on the results for the June quarter, guidance for the September quarter, and our expectations for the business mix across systems and services. Including the system's product mix, tariffs, and factory utilization.

    對於 2025 年,基於 6 月季度的業績、9 月季度的指引以及我們對跨系統和服務業務組合的預期。包括系統的產品結構、關稅和工廠利用率。

  • We expect gross margins for calendar '25 to remain approximately 62.5%. Operating expenses are forecasted to be approximately $615 million in the September quarter, as we continue to make product development and infrastructure investments to support expected revenue growth.

    我們預計 25 年的毛利率將維持在 62.5% 左右。由於我們將繼續進行產品開發和基礎設施投資以支持預期的收入成長,因此預計 9 月季度的營運費用約為 6.15 億美元。

  • Given our expectations for company growth and product development roadmap requirements, we will maintain our operating expense trajectory. Our business model is designed to deliver 40% to 50% incremental non-GAAP operating margin leverage on revenue growth over the long run.

    鑑於我們對公司成長和產品開發路線圖要求的預期,我們將維持我們的營運費用軌跡。我們的商業模式旨在長期實現 40% 至 50% 的增量非 GAAP 營業利潤率槓桿,從而實現收入成長。

  • Other model assumptions include other income and expense debt of approximately a $33 million expense. The non-GAAP affected tax rate assumption for the September quarter and the remainder of the calendar year is 13.5%, lower than the 14% we had previously estimated based on our expectations for the geographic distribution of income.

    其他模型假設包括約 3,300 萬美元的其他收入和支出債務。9 月當季及本年度剩餘時間的非 GAAP 稅率假設為 13.5%,低於我們先前根據對收入地理分佈的預期所估計的 14%。

  • For the September quarter, gas diluted EPS is expected to be $8.28 plus or minus $0.77. A non-GAAP diluted EPS of $8.53 plus or minus $0.77. EPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 132.4 million shares.

    預計9月當季天然氣稀釋每股收益為8.28美元,上下浮動0.77美元。非公認會計準則稀釋每股收益為8.53美元,上下浮動0.77美元。每股盈餘指引基於約1.324億股完全稀釋股份。

  • In conclusion, our near-term revenue guidance remains stable, indicating the continuation of current business levels and our customer discussion support this outlook. Based on conversations with customers, we anticipate continued solid growth in calendar 2025.

    總之,我們的近期收入預期保持穩定,表明當前業務水平的延續以及我們的客戶討論支持這一前景。根據與客戶的對話,我們預計 2025 年將持續保持穩健成長。

  • Given the revenue commentary for the remainder of the calendar year, we expect to meaningfully outperform the mid-single digit WFE growth rate.

    考慮到今年剩餘時間的收入評論,我們預計 WFE 的成長率將顯著超過中個位數。

  • KLA focuses on delivering a differentiated product portfolio that addresses customer technology roadmap requirements which are driving our longer term relevance and growth expectations.

    KLA 專注於提供差異化的產品組合,以滿足客戶的技術路線圖要求,從而推動我們長期的相關性和成長預期。

  • KLA's business is well positioned for the current technology inflections. While we cannot ignore the near term geopolitical trends, we are encouraged by the customer engagement that informs our business forecast.

    KLA 的業務已為當前的技術變革做好了充分準備。雖然我們不能忽視近期的地緣政治趨勢,但客戶參與度為我們的業務預測提供了參考,這讓我們感到鼓舞。

  • The long term secular trends driving semiconductor industry demand and investments in WFE and advanced packaging are compelling and represent a relative performance opportunity for KLA over the next several years.

    推動半導體行業需求以及對 WFE 和先進封裝的投資的長期趨勢引人注目,並代表著未來幾年 KLA 的相對錶現機會。

  • That concludes our prepared remarks. Let's begin the Q&A.

    我們的準備好的演講到此結束。讓我們開始問答。

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Bren. Bou, if you could please queue folks for questions.

    謝謝,布倫。Bou,如果你能的話,請大家排隊提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

    CJ Muse、康托·菲茨傑拉德。

  • Christopher Muse - Analyst

    Christopher Muse - Analyst

  • Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. So I just would love to hit on your comment around early customer discussions constructive for growth in 2026. You work typically from eight plus month lead times. Obviously, you've got some visibility into '26. So I would love to hear kind of how those conversations are going. And what needs to happen to have firm conviction on growth in '26.

    午安.感謝您回答這個問題。因此,我很想談談您關於早期客戶討論對 2026 年成長的建設性評論。您的工作準備時間通常為八個月以上。顯然,你對 26 年已經有了一些了解。所以我很想聽聽這些對話的進展。我們需要做些什麼才能對 26 年的成長有堅定的信心?

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, CJ, thanks for the question. And I think it's a little bit early for us to quantify it. But certainly, we're encouraged by the discussions we're seeing. We think that as you look just across the industry, based on those discussions that we'll see customers investing more. Obviously, what's driving the space today is high-performance compute.

    是的,CJ,謝謝你的提問。我認為現在量化它還為時過早。但毫無疑問,我們看到的討論令我們感到鼓舞。我們認為,放眼整個產業,基於這些討論,我們會看到客戶投入更多資金。顯然,當今推動該領域發展的是高效能運算。

  • And so that part of the market is strong. And we'll have to see how other end markets play out in terms of what that growth looks like. But certainly, at the leading edge, we're encouraged by the activity we're seeing, supported by that market.

    因此該部分市場表現強勁。我們也必須觀察其他終端市場的成長情況。但可以肯定的是,在前沿領域,我們看到的、受到該市場支持的活躍活動令我們感到鼓舞。

  • We're optimistic that we might see some broadening of investment there. DRAM continues to be strong, fueled by HBM. Flash is coming off of low levels, but I think the flash market continues to be constructive moving forward. Overall, legacy seems like it's bottomed. So I think we feel pretty good about where that is. We'll see what growth looks like, but at least in terms of where it's at now. I don't think it's any worse.

    我們樂觀地認為,我們可能會看到那裡的投資有所擴大。在 HBM 的推動下,DRAM 繼續保持強勁勢頭。Flash 正在從低位回升,但我認為快閃記憶體市場將繼續保持積極的發展勢頭。總體而言,遺產似乎已經觸底。所以我認為我們對此感到非常滿意。我們將觀察成長情況,但至少就目前的情況而言。我不認為情況更糟。

  • And then our modeling as it relates to native China activity is that it's likely down somewhere in that -- we'll see how far down, but I think it's down after a couple of years of pretty elevated investment in '23 and '24. So if you think that '25 is down and we think '26 is probably had some headwinds as well as that normalizes, given most of the focus there is off legacy.

    然後,我們根據中國本土活動建立的模型顯示,它可能會在某個地方下降——我們將看看下降幅度有多大,但我認為,在 2023 年和 2024 年幾年的投資大幅增加之後,它會下降。因此,如果您認為 25 年有所下滑,而我們認為 26 年可能也遇到了一些阻力,那麼這種情況就會正常化,因為大部分焦點都集中在遺留問題上。

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Just to add, as we see the continued investment in the advanced logic, as Bren mentioned, we see momentum as more and more players are bringing their design. So you think about the sustained investment in advanced logic and then even some investment going back a note. So we're also seeing some additional -- so we feel really good about logic foundry in terms of that overall momentum plus the packaging momentum we've talked about.

    補充一點,正如布倫所提到的,我們看到對先進邏輯的持續投資,我們看到越來越多的參與者帶來他們的設計,從而形成了一種勢頭。因此,您要考慮對高階邏輯的持續投資,甚至還要考慮一些回溯投資。因此,我們也看到了一些額外的東西——因此,就整體發展勢頭以及我們談到的封裝勢頭而言,我們對邏輯代工感到非常滿意。

  • Christopher Muse - Analyst

    Christopher Muse - Analyst

  • Very helpful. I guess on the domestic China front, you talked earlier indication of lower again in '26. Curious, as three regions, Wuhan, Shanghai, Beijing are competing for supremacy, and we've now gone from four to six large kind of players, how does that kind of inform your view? Does it give you a sense that things would only decline a little or a lot? Or just too early to tell? Thank you very much.

    非常有幫助。我想,就中國國內市場而言,您之前談到 26 年中國經濟將再次走低的跡象。好奇的是,武漢、上海、北京三個地區正在爭奪霸主地位,我們現在已經從四個大型參與者發展到六個大型參與者,這對您的看法有何影響?您是否感覺到情況只會下降一點點,還是會下降很多?還是現在說還太早?非常感謝。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I think it's too early to tell at this point. As I said, we had two years of a lot of backlog we had to shift through and work off, which we have done. And I think now that we're seeing investment from our other customers, we're seeing that drive our business outlook more strongly here moving forward. So we'll have to see as we move forward here.

    是的。我認為現在下結論還為時過早。正如我所說的,我們有兩年的時間積壓了大量工作,我們必須處理和解決這些工作,我們已經做到了。我認為,現在我們看到了其他客戶的投資,這將更強勁地推動我們未來的業務前景。因此,我們必須拭目以待,繼續前進。

  • But my sense just in terms of looking at it bottoms up and trying to reconcile with some of the some of the top-down kind of market outlook information. I feel like it's probably got some headwinds to it in terms of the investment levels relative to '25.

    但我的感覺只是從下往上看,並試圖與一些自上而下的市場前景資訊相協調。我覺得相對於 25 年的投資水準而言,它可能遇到了一些阻力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Oh, good afternoon, and great job on the quarterly execution, guys. Year-to-date, so March and June, your Process Control Systems business, right, that's inspection and patterning that's up 35% year-over-year. So it looks like you guys are setting up for another strong year of growth and maybe even more share gains, right? But within that, inspection is up 50% year-to-date, while patterning kind of flattish, but kind of similar to the profile in calendar '24, where inspection drove most of the growth. So maybe you can just help us understand, a, the drivers of the massive strength in the inspection is a broad basis across optical dark feel, bare wafer, e-beam.

    哦,下午好,夥計們,季度執行情況很好。從年初至今,也就是三月和六月,您的製程控制系統業務,也就是檢查和圖案化業務年增了 35%。所以看起來你們正在為另一個強勁的成長年做準備,甚至可能獲得更多的份額,對嗎?但其中,今年迄今的檢查量增加了 50%,儘管模式有些平緩,但有點類似於 24 年曆中的概況,其中檢查推動了大部分增長。所以也許您可以幫助我們理解,檢查中巨大強度的驅動因素是跨越光學暗感、裸晶圓、電子束的廣泛基礎。

  • And then maybe help us understand the relatively flattish growth in patterning. And do you guys anticipate another year of total share gains in process control?

    然後也許可以幫助我們理解模式中相對平坦的增長。你們預計製程控制領域的總份額還會在來年增加嗎?

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Harlan, thanks for the comments. A lot there. I'll try to unpack it a bit. I mean, certainly, we've seen a strong inflection in our optical pattern inspection business. We were supply constrained in that business for some time. Now we have more supply, and so we're shipping through a lot of backlog for that product, and that product is well positioned and really critical for gate all around. So that's been a nice driver.

    哈蘭,謝謝你的評論。那裡有很多。我會嘗試稍微解開它。我的意思是,當然,我們已經看到光學圖案檢測業務發生了強烈的變化。一段時間以來,我們在該業務上的供應受到限制。現在我們有更多的供應,因此我們正在運送大量積壓的產品,而且該產品的定位很好,對於各地的門市來說都至關重要。所以這是一個很好的驅動因素。

  • Obviously, what's happened in packaging has also been a nice driver for this part of the business, sampling rates and inspection given the challenges are very, very high. And so that's been a nice tailwind for that part of the business as well. So inspection has definitely been inflecting.

    顯然,包裝領域發生的事情也為這部分業務提供了良好的推動力,因為抽樣率和檢查面臨的挑戰非常非常高。這對於該部分業務來說也是一個很好的順風。因此檢查肯定已經發生了變化。

  • As it relates to patterning, you have really three businesses that are in patterning. You have optical metrology, which is around overlay and then you also have no measurement reticle inspection. And with overlay, as we've seen some slowdown in advanced [litho] with -- from a customer point of view, there's an attach rate of that business to litho. And so that's reduced, I'd call it more really nonconsumption in that business. So that's been a little bit weaker. Really the only business we have that has an attached to litho generally.

    就模式化而言,實際上有三項業務與模式化有關。您擁有光學計量,它圍繞覆蓋,並且也沒有測量標線檢查。對於覆蓋技術,我們看到先進光刻技術的發展有所放緩——從客戶的角度來看,該業務對光刻技術的附加率是比較高的。因此,我稱之為該行業真正的非消費。所以有點弱。事實上,這是我們唯一與光刻相關的業務。

  • Film measurement, I think it's a little bit lumpy, would expect better-than-market growth out of that business as we go through the year for 2025. And for radical inspection, it's a lumpy business, we have some large integers in there, but would expect to see that business grow meaningfully and at a record level for calendar '25 versus '24.

    我認為電影測量有點不穩定,預計到 2025 年該業務的成長將好於市場。從根本上來說,這是一項不均衡的業務,我們有一些較大的整數,但預計該業務將在 2025 年與 2024 年相比實現有意義的增長並達到創紀錄的水平。

  • So a little bit of just what happens in the quarter, but I think from a directional point of view, I think we'll see stronger patterning as we move through the second half of the year.

    因此這只是本季度發生的事情,但我認為從方向的角度來看,隨著下半年的到來,我們將看到更強勁的模式。

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And Harlan, to your point, I think overall, we are seeing process control intensity continue to rise for all the reasons we've talked about, the advanced designs, large die. And so initially, at least a lot of that favors inspection and Bren talked about some of this -- the facts and patterning. And then the radical comes around. I mean, for KLA, reticle in 2025 is going to be a record year.

    是的。哈蘭,關於你的觀點,我認為總體而言,我們看到製程控制強度由於我們討論過的所有原因而持續上升,包括先進的設計、大型晶片。因此,最初,至少有很多內容有利於檢查,布倫談到了其中的一些內容——事實和模式。然後激進分子就出現了。我的意思是,對 KLA 來說,2025 年將是創紀錄的一年。

  • So we feel good about where we are positioned there and we have more products coming along. So we feel process control intensity continues to strengthen, and our market position is very strong.

    因此,我們對自己在那裡的定位感到滿意,我們將推出更多產品。因此,我們感覺過程控制強度不斷加強,而且我們的市場地位非常強大。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Very insightful. And yet again, you guys upped your target for advanced packaging revenues from $850 million to $925 million for calendar '25. That's up like 80% year-over-year. I assume it's a combination of HBM and 2.5D and 3.5D advanced packaging. We know that many of next-generation 2-nanometer AI GPU, XTU designs are targeted for this packaging architecture stack chips, more HBM stack.

    非常有見地。你們再次將 25 年先進封裝收入目標從 8.5 億美元提高到 9.25 億美元。與去年同期相比,成長了 80%。我認為它是 HBM 和 2.5D 和 3.5D 先進封裝的組合。我們知道很多新一代2奈米AI GPU,XTU的設計都是針對這種封裝架構的堆疊晶片,更多的是HBM堆疊。

  • Just overall significantly more complex versus 2.5D. But maybe you guys can just help us understand -- where are you guys seeing the incremental upside? I think this is like the third or fourth time that revised your full year outlook for Advanced Packaging. So where are you guys seeing the incremental upside?

    整體來說,比2.5D複雜得多。不過,或許你們能幫我們理解一下──你們認為增量優勢在哪裡?我認為這是第三次或第四次修改先進封裝的全年展望。那你們認為增量優勢在哪裡呢?

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So Harlan, you touched on a lot of it. And I think it's a combination of -- it took us a little while to have the products that were requested. And so a little bit of that is adoption and then some momentum once we started getting going. And then just the ramp it all comes back to the build-out associated with the AI infrastructure. And for us, that's the third leg.

    哈蘭,你談了很多。我認為這是由多種因素造成的——我們花了一點時間才得到所要求的產品。因此,其中一部分是採用,然後一旦我們開始行動,就會產生一些動力。然後,一切都回歸到與人工智慧基礎設施相關的建設。對我們來說,這是第三站。

  • We talked about logic/foundry, advanced designs, bigger die, talked about HBM and talk about packaging. And really, it's that part of packaging. And I think as our customers see success with our portfolio, we're gaining share.

    我們討論了邏輯/代工廠、先進的設計、更大的晶片、討論了 HBM 並討論了封裝。事實上,這是包裝的一部分。我認為,隨著客戶看到我們產品組合的成功,我們的市場份額也會不斷擴大。

  • So the exciting part for us is apart from WFE dynamics, which I think we do spend an awful lot of time about, this is really outside of WFE. So we're seeing growth in packaging as a sector for inspection metrology. Also our process position there is good. And then we're gaining share. So you have a really nice combination.

    因此,對我們來說令人興奮的部分除了 WFE 動態之外(我認為我們確實花費了大量時間),這實際上是在 WFE 之外。因此,我們看到包裝作為檢驗計量領域正在成長。我們的流程狀況也很好。然後我們的份額就不斷增加。所以你們有一個非常好的組合。

  • When we talk to customers, we think we're closer to at the beginning of this trend than at the end of it. We think this is -- there's a lot of growth to come.

    當我們與客戶交談時,我們認為我們更接近這一趨勢的開始而不是結束。我們認為,未來還會有很大的成長空間。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Harlan, the other thing I'd say is just if you just go back just a short period of time, let's go back a few years to 2022 as a percent of advanced packaging, our semi process control business. Given the nature of the requirements was pretty low. You're probably about a 1% intensity.

    是的,哈蘭,我想說的另一件事是,如果你只是回顧一小段時間,讓我們回顧一下 2022 年先進封裝、半製程控制業務的百分比。鑑於要求的性質,要求相當低。您的強度大概是 1%。

  • Today, we're sitting somewhere around in that 5% to 6% range. So just in a few years, we've seen our position change quite dramatically as the requirements, to Rick's point, have increased. So we're pretty excited about the growth rate and opportunity there. And we think that this continues to be a growth area as we move into next year.

    如今,我們的佔比大約在 5% 到 6% 之間。因此,在短短幾年內,我們看到我們的立場發生了巨大變化,因為正如 Rick 所說,要求增加了。因此,我們對那裡的成長率和機會感到非常興奮。我們認為,隨著明年的到來,這將繼續成為一個成長領域。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Thanks, Rick. Thanks, Bren.

    謝謝,里克。謝謝,布倫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vivek Aria, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的維韋克·艾瑞亞(Vivek Aria)。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my question. On the first one, the process control intensity in memory, I wanted to get your views on this. Historically, it used to be lower, closer to, I think, mature nodes. How is that process control intensity evolving as the industry is moving from traditional DRAM to more high-bandwidth memory.

    感謝您回答我的問題。關於第一個問題,即記憶體中的過程控制強度,我想聽聽您對此的看法。從歷史上看,它曾經較低,我認為更接近成熟節點。隨著產業從傳統 DRAM 轉向更高頻寬內存,製程控制強度如何演變。

  • Is there a way to quantify what the benefits are to KLA because HBM is expected to be one of the fastest growth drivers in AI accelerators? So I'm just curious to understand how your opportunity is evolving as the industry migrates to HBM and then advanced versions of HBM?

    由於 HBM 有望成為 AI 加速器中成長最快的動力之一,有沒有辦法量化它對 KLA 有哪些好處?所以我很好奇,隨著產業遷移到 HBM 以及 HBM 的高級版本,您的機會將如何發展?

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So I'll give you a qualitative and Bren can do the harder thing of giving more quantitative qualitatively, you have more advanced, bigger, more valuable buy with more challenging circuitry in the periphery and less redundancy.

    是的。因此,我會給你一個定性答案,布倫可以做更難的事情,給出更定量的定性答案,你有更先進、更大、更有價值的購買,外圍電路更具挑戰性,冗餘更少。

  • So -- and you have a tremendous pressure coming because these are in high use and therefore, these die don't rust. These are unlike the duty cycle is high. So you've got -- and they're part of an expensive system.

    所以——你會面臨巨大的壓力,因為這些模具的使用率很高,因此這些模具不會生鏽。這些與佔空比高不同。所以你有——它們是昂貴系統的一部分。

  • So what our customers have said is they increased -- and as you know, there's multiple players, they've increased the inspection, both in the development but also in the build-out. And they're finding that they need everything they can get as to Insight.

    因此,我們的客戶說他們增加了——正如你所知,有多個參與者,他們增加了檢查,包括開發階段和建設階段。他們發現他們需要一切能夠獲得洞察力的東西。

  • And because these are more valuable die with less redundancy, the deep activity levels in the past that might have been acceptable or not and so not acceptable now. So they need more coverage. They need higher tools, plus they're introducing new technology. So everything is driving toward higher process control intensity. We've been I don't know that we've been surprised, but we've been pleased by the adoption, and we think there's more demand coming as people understand the challenges.

    而且由於這些是更有價值的、冗餘度更低的晶片,過去的深度活動水平可能是可以接受的,也可能是不可接受的,所以現在是不可接受的。所以他們需要更多的報道。他們需要更高級的工具,而且他們正在引進新技術。所以一切都朝著更高的過程控制強度發展。我們對此並不感到驚訝,但我們對這項措施的採用感到高興,我們認為,隨著人們逐漸了解這些挑戰,需求將會越來越大。

  • And then there -- our road map cadence that's different than the consumer cadence was. So I think from their standpoint, there's not a lot of pressure to deliver a yield. So that's what's happening and why this adoption is very different than memory has been in years for us.

    然後,我們的路線圖節奏與消費者的節奏不同。因此我認為從他們的角度來看,實現收益的壓力並不大。這就是正在發生的事情,也是為什麼這次的採用與我們記憶中多年來的採用截然不同。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So when DRAM went with the EUV, we started to pattern a couple of layers or a few layers with EUV, we saw a step-up in intensity. So process control intensity was somewhere around 9% to 10% of WFE back before. And then with the introduction of EUV, we saw that improve. We saw that improve about 100 basis points. When we move to HPM, we think that there's another 100 basis points or so of opportunity there. We'll see how that plays out over time.

    因此,當 DRAM 採用 EUV 時,我們開始使用 EUV 對幾層或幾層進行圖案化,我們看到強度有所提高。因此,過程控制強度以前大約是 WFE 的 9% 到 10%。隨著 EUV 的引入,我們看到了改善。我們發現這一數字提高了約 100 個基點。當我們轉向 HPM 時,我們認為那裡還有另外 100 個基點左右的機會。我們將觀察隨著時間的推移情況將如何發展。

  • But as Rick said, as the requirements have changed, it's increased the value of our products and changed how customers sample and their expectations around reliability. You also have a bigger (inaudible) which benefits everyone, but I think some of these challenges that they have around the market requirements for HBM are benefiting process control uniquely.

    但正如里克所說,隨著要求的變化,我們產品的價值也增加了,客戶的採樣方式和他們對可靠性的期望也發生了變化。您還擁有一個更大的(聽不清楚)這對每個人有利,但我認為他們在 HBM 市場需求方面面臨的一些挑戰對過程控制有獨特的益處。

  • And so we're seeing that on the logic side, but we're also seeing that on the memory side as well. So right now, we look at it, we think there's probably another incremental 100 bps on top of that. So if you go back pre EUV to where we are today, it's probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 basis points of higher process control intensity. And our share position and momentum is in a pretty good place. So we're encouraged by what we see.

    我們在邏輯方面看到了這一點,但我們在記憶體方面也看到了這一點。因此現在,我們來看,我們認為在此基礎上可能還會再增加 100 個基點。因此,如果回到 EUV 之前的狀態,我們今天的狀態可能是製程控制強度高出 200 個基點左右。我們的股票地位和發展勢頭相當良好。我們對所見所聞感到鼓舞。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • All right. Very helpful. And then for my follow-up on gross margins, kind of near and a little more medium term. So if let's say, December quarter sales are flattish, should we assume gross margins stay flattish? Or are there any other mix effects, et cetera, that we should keep in mind?

    好的。非常有幫助。然後,我對近期和中期的毛利率進行了追蹤。那麼,如果說 12 月季度的銷售額持平,我們是否應該假設毛利率保持持平?或者有其他混合效應等等需要我們牢記嗎?

  • And then kind of more medium term, what are you doing to mitigate that tariff cost pressure? Can it be mitigated? Like when should we assume that you have some alternatives in place to get the gross margins back to the trend line? Thank you.

    那麼從中期來看,您正在採取什麼措施來緩解關稅成本壓力?可以緩解嗎?例如,我們什麼時候應該假設您有一些替代方案可以讓毛利率回到趨勢線?謝謝。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So the first part of your question, we talked about our views of calendar '25 gross margin at 62.5%. So if you take Q1 and Q2, and our guidance for Q3, that will lead you to an uptick in gross margin in the fourth quarter based on our expectations now around revenue mix as of the next quarter. So that should get you there. You can do the math and figure out how to get there.

    是的。因此,對於您問題的第一部分,我們討論了對 25 年毛利率 62.5% 的看法。因此,如果您考慮第一季和第二季以及我們對第三季的預測,那麼根據我們現在對下個季度收入組合的預期,這將導致第四季度的毛利率上升。這樣你就可以到達那裡了。你可以計算一下並找出如何到達那裡。

  • But as it relates to tariffs, there's a lot. I mean, first of all, as I said in the prepared remarks, it's a new thing for our industry. It hasn't been a factor in our business operations historically. So now as we face the likelihood of higher structural tariffs moving forward, there are some business processes as it relates to how we move parts around, how do we leverage free trade zones and things like that to reduce leakage of tariffs as it -- where you pay a tariff, but then you have an opportunity when you turn around to export where you can reclaim or clawback the tariff that you pay related to the export.

    但就關稅而言,還有很多。我的意思是,首先,正如我在準備好的發言中所說,這對我們的行業來說是一件新鮮事。從歷史上看,這並不是我們業務運作的因素。因此,現在我們面臨著未來結構性關稅提高的可能性,有一些業務流程與我們如何運輸零件有關,我們如何利用自由貿易區等來減少關稅的洩漏 - 你支付了關稅,但當你轉而出口時,你就有機會收回或收回與出口相關的支付的關稅。

  • So there are a lot of those dynamics that are mitigating factors. Obviously, if it drives structural cost increase, then that's something that we'll have to deal with, both in our service and system businesses over time, just like we would with any other cost increase.

    因此,有許多動態因素可以起到緩解作用。顯然,如果它導致結構性成本增加,那麼我們就必須在服務和系統業務中逐步解決這個問題,就像我們處理任何其他成本增加一樣。

  • But we think that there's some opportunities to go do some things on the process side, where, look, we got a lot to do. The ROI wasn't all that compelling even though it might have been a better process, well, if you add in the economic cost of incremental tariffs, all of a sudden, some of those issues rise up or opportunities rise up to the priority scale. So that's really how we're thinking about it.

    但我們認為在流程方面還是有機會去做一些事情的,看,我們有很多事情要做。儘管它可能是一個更好的過程,但投資回報率並不是那麼引人注目,但是,如果加上增量關稅的經濟成本,那麼突然之間,其中一些問題就會出現,或者機會就會上升到優先級。這就是我們真正思考的問題。

  • I think for the Street in terms of how you're modeling KLA, I think that the 50 basis points to 100 basis points guidance headwind is probably the way to think about it. And then as I start to see either some stability or some changes in terms of how we're doing things that reduce that, I'll provide that update when appropriate.

    我認為,對於華爾街而言,就如何對 KLA 進行建模而言,我認為 50 個基點到 100 個基點的指導逆風可能是思考它的方式。然後,當我開始看到我們的工作方式出現一些穩定性或變化以減少這種情況時,我會在適當的時候提供更新。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Shane Brett, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的 Shane Brett。

  • Shane Brett - Analyst

    Shane Brett - Analyst

  • Thank you for letting me ask a question. Apologies for asking a bit of a near-term question. But if I'm understanding this correctly, your September quarter foundry logic revenue is likely to strengthen sequentially, but your memory revenue across both DRAM and NAND decline.

    感謝您允許我提問。抱歉,我問了一些近期的問題。但如果我理解正確的話,9月份季度的代工邏輯收入可能會較上季成長,但DRAM和NAND的記憶體收入會下降。

  • I thought that the memory mix, specifically DRAM, may uptake a bit more in the second half. So just talk about the big business mix here and if we could see a memory uptick in the December quarter? Thank you.

    我認為記憶體組合(特別是 DRAM)在下半年可能會有更大的成長。那麼,只談論這裡的大業務組合,以及我們是否可以看到 12 月季度的記憶體成長?謝謝。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, the way it's lining up, I think that we'll see DRAM stronger in the December quarter than the September quarter. It's just really about timing of revenue, revenue recognition, those dynamics. The shipments of the final product acceptance processes that we run through that drive revenue into a particular quarter. But as I look at it and you think about some of the project timing that's out there, I would expect to see an uptick into the December quarter.

    是的,按照目前的排列方式,我認為 12 月季度的 DRAM 表現會比 9 月季度更強勁。這其實只是關於收入時機、收入確認等動態。我們經歷的最終產品驗收流程的出貨量將推動特定季度的收入。但當我看到它並考慮到一些現有的專案時間時,我預計 12 月季度會出現上升趨勢。

  • Shane Brett - Analyst

    Shane Brett - Analyst

  • Got it. And for my follow-up, so 2022 Analyst Day, you set out a $14 billion revenue target for '26, which I think was based on $125 billion WFE assumption. I think your market share gains have clearly checked above what you're probably thinking in 2022.

    知道了。接下來,在 2022 年分析師日,您為 26 年設定了 140 億美元的收入目標,我認為這是基於 1250 億美元的 WFE 假設。我認為您的市佔率成長顯然已經超出了您在 2022 年所設想的範圍。

  • Just could you talk about those market share gains and sort of where your kind of current assumptions are towards -- as we think towards 2026, not really asking sort of revenue guide, but if you can kind of give us a few crumbs on how to think about '26. Thank you.

    您能否談談市場佔有率的成長以及您目前的假設——當我們考慮 2026 年時,並不是真正詢問收入指南,但您是否可以給我們一些關於如何看待 2026 年的信息。謝謝。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, you're right, the 2026 plan assumed WFE level in the mid-$120 million range. And so we'll see whether we get there or not. But I would say that for KLA, we don't need $125 million to make that plan. But given the strength that we've seen in our share of WFE, the growth rates we've seen in packaging, Obviously, we've had some headwinds as it relates to export control in terms of lost opportunity, but also how that's affected our service business. But in general, we feel like we're pretty well positioned from a share of WFE point of view.

    嗯,您說得對,2026 年計劃假設 WFE 水準在 1.2 億美元左右。我們將看看我們是否能到達那裡。但我想說,對於 KLA 來說,我們不需要 1.25 億美元來製定該計劃。但考慮到我們在 WFE 份額中所看到的強勁表現,以及我們在包裝領域所看到的增長率,顯然,我們在出口管制方面遇到了一些阻力,包括失去機會,但這也影響了我們的服務業務。但總體而言,從 WFE 份額的角度來看,我們覺得我們處於相當有利的位置。

  • We assumed a 7.25% share of WFE. If you take out packaging, I think our share of WFE is approaching 8%, then you add in the packaging opportunity. So we'll see. If I got WFE levels in the mid-teens, I think we got a shot at it.

    我們假設 WFE 的份額為 7.25%。如果去掉包裝,我認為我們的 WFE 份額接近 8%,然後再加上包裝機會。我們拭目以待。如果我達到十幾歲的 WFE 水平,我想我們就有機會了。

  • But I think when you consider puts and takes, we don't need as much given the growth rates we've seen in our overall share of market. Now that's been intensity driven. I mentioned packaging. We're also, I think, pretty confident around some of the share opportunities we also have. That's all that's part of that number.

    但我認為,當你考慮到投入和產出時,考慮到我們整體市佔率的成長率,我們不需要那麼多。現在這已經是強度驅動了。我提到了包裝。我認為,我們對我們擁有的一些共享機會也非常有信心。這就是該數字的全部內容。

  • The financial model underneath is operating very consistent. Absent the tariff effect, we'd probably be in line or maybe even slightly better on the gross margin side at that revenue level. So the rest of it is driven by our incremental operating margin model and our expectation of drop through to EPS based on business performance, but also capital structure action of EPS growth of 1.5 times our revenue growth rate.

    其下的財務模型運作非常一致。如果不考慮關稅的影響,我們的毛利率在該收入水準上可能會保持一致,甚至略有提高。因此,其餘部分則由我們的增量營業利潤率模型和基於業務績效的每股收益下降預期所驅動,同時也受到每股收益成長 1.5 倍收入成長率的資本結構行動的影響。

  • So it really is going to be predicated on where WFE ends up in terms of how we perform against that target. But the financial framework is executing as we expected.

    因此,這實際上將取決於 WFE 最終如何實現這一目標。但財務框架的執行正如我們所預期的。

  • Shane Brett - Analyst

    Shane Brett - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you very much.

    知道了。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charles Shi, Needham.

    查爾斯·施,尼德漢姆。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. Maybe my first question, a little bit more about China as a percentage of sales, 26% in March, 30% in Q2. So is the 30% still the right number kind of going into the second half of the year?

    感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於中國佔銷售額的百分比,3 月為 26%,第二季為 30%。那麼,對於下半年來說,30% 仍然是正確的數字嗎?

  • Or shall we kind of expect some upside because the data point so far has suggested there has been some upside in China WFE so far? But I kind of wonder, since you still view China something down this year? Kind of want to get some thoughts there.

    或者我們是否應該期待一些上漲,因為迄今為止的數據表明中國 WFE 到目前為止已經出現了一些上漲?但我有點疑惑,您為什麼還是認為今年中國經濟有所下滑?有點想在那裡得到一些想法。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Charles, I'll try to unpack this a little bit. If you go back to earnings in January, we talked about our China business dropping to the 30% level assuming a $3-ish billion run rate, and that's down from about 41% in 2024. So obviously, Q1 was lower, which means that you're likely to see higher percentages as you move forward. So our -- we fast forward to April and the guidance in April was very consistent with that. If you look at where we sit today, I still see it at roughly 30% plus or minus.

    是的,查爾斯,我會嘗試稍微解釋一下這個問題。如果回顧 1 月的收益,我們談到假設 30 億美元左右的運行率,我們的中國業務將下降到 30% 的水平,而 2024 年這一比例約為 41%。因此顯然,第一季的百分比較低,這意味著隨著時間的推移,您可能會看到更高的百分比。因此,我們快進到四月,四月的指導與此非常一致。如果你看看我們今天所處的位置,我仍然看到它大約在 30% 左右上下波動。

  • . Now the second half will be higher than the first half because you were 26% and 30% in Q2. So I think the second half is higher than the first half. But for the company overall, we're still in line with that 30% expectation plus or minus a couple of points. Now our business has strengthened.

    。現在下半年將高於上半年,因為第二季的比例分別為 26% 和 30%。所以我認為下半年會比上半年高。但對於整個公司而言,我們仍然符合 30% 的預期,上下浮動幾個點。現在我們的業務已經增強了。

  • We were a $3 billion run rate. Now we just guided $315 million. So some of that strength has been reflected in China at a consistent percentage. So at the beginning of the year, we thought our China business would be down somewhere between 15% and 20% overall. As I said today, I think we're probably down somewhere between 10% and 15% on just the general strengthening overall.

    我們的營業額是 30 億美元。現在我們剛剛指導了3.15億美元。因此,這種優勢在中國已經以穩定的百分比體現。因此,今年年初,我們預期中國業務整體將下降 15% 至 20%。正如我今天所說,我認為總體而言,我們的經濟可能會下降 10% 到 15% 之間。

  • So China behaving pretty much as expected and expect the year to end up somewhere around 30%. Thanks.

    因此,中國的表現基本上符合預期,預計今年的成長率將在 30% 左右。謝謝。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • I appreciate the color. Maybe another relatively high-level question. I see -- listen to your answers to questions from other analysts on this call regarding process control intensity. I think historically, people kind of associate or positively correlate process control intensity with lithography intensity, lots of discussion on litho intensity this year, feels like the consensus is probably coming down, but I think that historical correlation kind of broken down over the past couple of years, process control intensity actually was on the way up. Litho probably kind of coming down as we remove any of the stockpiling in China, those kind of factors.

    我很欣賞這個顏色。這也許是另一個相對高級的問題。我明白了——請聽聽您對本次電話會議上其他分析師關於過程控制強度的問題的回答。我認為從歷史上看,人們將工藝控制強度與光刻強度聯繫起來或正相關,今年關於光刻強度的討論很多,感覺共識可能正在下降,但我認為過去幾年歷史相關性已經被打破,工藝控制強度實際上正在上升。隨著我們清除中國的所有庫存,光刻技術可能也會下降,諸如此類的因素。

  • So kind of wanted to get the sense from you guys, what do you see that the process control intensity? Where is that correlation breaking down? And what's the outlook going forward from here? Do you expect that the bifurcation is kind of going to be sustaining structure or maybe the new reversion event at some point in down the road?

    所以想從你們那裡了解一下,你們認為過程控制強度如何?這種相關性在何處被打破?那麼未來的前景如何?您是否預計分叉將會成為維持結構,或者在未來某個時候可能出現新的回歸事件?

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. That's an insightful question. The -- if you go back in time, and I won't go too far back, but often the process control for lithography was associated with wavelength shift and lithography, usually driven by one large manufacturer of a microprocessor.

    是的。這是一個很有見地的問題。如果你回顧過去,我不會回顧太久,但光刻製程控制通常與波長偏移和光刻有關,通常由一家大型微處理器製造商推動。

  • And so that was the hates that kind of set everything. And so in those cases, you'd be going to a new design rule and you need new lithography, maybe the mix was different with advanced. And so you see intensity go up and those same drivers would be driving process control intensity to your point. What's changed quite a bit is the dynamics associated and it started happening a few nodes ago where we saw a proliferation in advanced designs at bleeding edge.

    正是這種仇恨決定了一切。因此在這些情況下,您將採用新的設計規則,並且需要新的光刻技術,也許混合方式與先進的技術有所不同。因此,您會看到強度上升,而那些相同的驅動因素也會推動過程控制強度達到您的觀點。發生很大變化的是相關的動態,它開始發生在幾個節點之前,我們看到了前沿先進設計的激增。

  • Because historically, what you also saw was fewer people designing at the leading edge. So therefore, it was pretty correlated. Around seven nanometers, we started seeing more designs happening. And the design intensity around the number of designs chasing leading edge doesn't really do anything for lithography intensity.

    因為從歷史上看,從事前沿設計的人越來越少。因此,它們是相當相關的。大約七奈米時,我們開始看到更多的設計出現。而圍繞追逐前緣的設計數量的設計強度實際上對光刻強度沒有任何影響。

  • In fact, it doesn't do anything for much capital intensity, except for process control intensity because you have a higher degree of variability because you have more designs going through at the leading edge. You drive reticle consumption up higher, and that has been a very stable market.

    事實上,它對資本密集度沒有任何作用,除了過程控制強度,因為你有更高程度的可變性,因為你在前沿經歷了更多的設計。您推動了光罩消費量的上升,這是一個非常穩定的市場。

  • But more importantly, you have a very high mix stab where the variability is more and more challenged. And then you have to manage that in terms of how do you make sure you're yielding enough and not pretty too many wafers in, that's all about process control. That's not about other things, not about litho.

    但更重要的是,你有一個非常高的混合穩定性,其中的可變性越來越具有挑戰性。然後你必須管理這一點,確保產量足夠,並且不要投入太多的晶圓,這都是關於製程控制的。這與其他事情無關,與平版印刷無關。

  • And then add to that, the latest thing that's accelerated even further is the number of large die and associated with AI. So you have another driver that's doing it. On top of all that, you have what's going on in advanced packaging, which is allowing people to integrate a lot and in many ways, reduces the need for other equipment but increases the need for process control.

    除此之外,最新加速發展的是與人工智慧相關的大型晶片的數量。所以有另一個司機在做這件事。除此之外,先進封裝技術可以讓人們進行許多集成,並在許多方面減少對其他設備的需求,但增加對製程控制的需求。

  • Lastly, you have what's going on in HBM. So it's kind of a perfect transition from a -- if your business is process control, this is a really good time because every one of these drivers is driving the intensity in the way that customers can afford to have more processes control as they don't need as much intensity in their other parts of semiconductor manufacturing. So you're exactly right, but it's really the proliferation of design and the drivers around AI.

    最後,您了解了 HBM 中發生的事情。因此,這是一種完美的過渡——如果您的業務是過程控制,那麼這是一個非常好的時機,因為所有這些驅動因素都在推動強度,使客戶能夠負擔得起更多的過程控制,因為他們在半導體製造的其他部分不需要那麼大的強度。所以你說得完全正確,但這實際上是設計的擴散以及圍繞人工智慧的驅動因素。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Appreciate the insights. Thank you.

    感謝您的見解。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom O'Malley, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的湯姆·奧馬利。

  • Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

    Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

  • Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. When you answered the question earlier in the call on 2026, I appreciate it's early, and you don't want to give more color. You talked about the broadening of leading edge, and I think you were very intentional around using that word. Are you talking about additional customers coming in on the leading edge side? Are you just talking about the broadening of opportunities in the existing pillars of customers that you already have?

    嘿夥計們,謝謝你們回答我的問題。當您早些時候在 2026 年電話會議上回答這個問題時,我知道現在還為時過早,而且您不想透露更多細節。您談到了前沿領域的拓展,我認為您是有意使用這個詞的。您說的是前沿領域有更多客戶加入嗎?您只是在談論擴大您現有的客戶基礎中的機會嗎?

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Both, talking about both. We're seeing more people at the leading edge, as we've talked about, higher mix foundries. And for the first time, I think, in quite a while, we're seeing more players doing leading edge or very close in proximity to leading edge across. So we're seeing some momentum there. Some of that's been in the news.

    兩者都有,都在談論兩者。正如我們所討論的,我們看到越來越多的人處於領先地位,擁有更高組合的代工廠。我認為,這是相當長一段時間以來我們第一次看到更多的參與者在前沿或非常接近前沿。因此我們看到了一些勢頭。其中一些已經見諸新聞。

  • And as a result, what we're seeing is a broadening of customers as well as a proliferation of design. And I think it is the proliferation of design that is driving the broadening of customers.

    因此,我們看到客戶範圍不斷擴大,設計也日益多樣化。我認為設計的普及推動了客戶群的擴大。

  • Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

    Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

  • And when you guys look out into '26, you obviously are also thinking -- look at the environment you just described, you talked about a lot of different areas in which process control is going to do a lot better than other areas of equipment. How are you comfortable in talking about the strength of the broader market where you kind of describing a dynamic where maybe you're taking more of the pie and obviously, having more of the pie, the market may look a lot bigger?

    當你們展望 26 年時,你們顯然也在思考——看看你剛才描述的環境,你談到了很多不同的領域,其中製程控制將比其他設備領域做得更好。您在談論大盤實力時感覺如何?您描述的是一種動態,也許您分得了更多的蛋糕,而且顯然,分得的蛋糕越多,市場看起來就越大?

  • So maybe can you walk us through what you're doing to understand what your intent is of total WFE next year? Do you see share gains and maybe the market isn't as big, but you maybe have a piece of that market that's a little bit larger. How do you kind of figure that out as you look at your forecast into next year?

    那麼,您能否向我們介紹您正在做的事情,以便我們了解您明年對 WFE 的整體目標是什麼?您是否看到了份額的成長,也許市場規模沒有那麼大,但您可能擁有更大的市場份額。當您展望明年的預測時,您是如何得出這個結論的?

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I'll take the qualitative, and let Bren wants to do the quantitative part. We don't actually know exactly what we know or what the trends are happening, and there's always been this thing about process control that kind of cuts both ways. One, is can you solve these problems? And if you could, you -- people would buy systems to do it. But for a long time, there are a lot of unmet needs.

    好吧,我來做定性部分,讓布倫來做定量部分。我們實際上並不確切地知道我們知道什麼或正在發生的趨勢是什麼,而且過程控制總是存在這種雙向影響的情況。一是你能解決這些問題嗎?如果可以的話,人們會購買系統來實現這一點。但長期以來,還有很多需求未被滿足。

  • And so people would find other ways to solve those problems because eventually, they're going to figure it out. And what I mean by that, let's say, you need to find a specific defect in a specific part of the process you need to segment that process to find it. Well, if you don't have the tools that are actually capable of doing that, customers will figure out another way around it, maybe not nearly as efficient.

    因此人們會尋找其他方法來解決這些問題,因為最終他們會找到答案。我的意思是,假設您需要在流程的特定部分中找到特定的缺陷,您需要對該流程進行分段才能找到它。好吧,如果你沒有能夠真正做到這一點的工具,客戶就會想出另一種解決方法,但效率可能遠不及後者。

  • But so part of what's changed is we have more of those tools and part of what -- the reason we have that is our portfolio has been strengthened through a lot of investment over the years. And we talked about quite a while ago, the repeated application of advanced processing of our own systems using AI has given us more ability to solve those problems in conjunction with some new product offerings such as our e-beam portfolio means that we can give customers a better way to manage those.

    但變化的部分原因是我們擁有了更多的工具,而部分原因是我們的投資組合多年來透過大量投資得到了加強。我們很久以前就討論過,使用人工智慧對我們自己的系統進行高級處理的反覆應用,使我們更有能力結合一些新產品(例如我們的電子束產品組合)來解決這些問題,這意味著我們可以為客戶提供更好的方法來管理這些問題。

  • So from the standpoint of that, but I don't actually think in some customers, they are figuring out dynamically how much process control they need, and it's still incumbent on us to prove the value when they introduce it. But when we say we're pretty confident going into '26, it's because we have more and more places where customers are telling us, in some regards, they're playing back to us what we may have said to them a while ago, we know we need more process control intensity.

    因此,從這個角度來看,但我實際上並不認為對於某些客戶來說,他們正在動態地計算他們需要多少製程控制,並且當他們引入它時我們仍然有責任證明其價值。但是,當我們說我們對進入26年非常有信心時,這是因為我們有越來越多的客戶告訴我們,在某些方面,他們正在向我們重現我們之前可能對他們說過的話,我們知道我們需要更強的過程控制強度。

  • We need you to help us get that portfolio and they're making sure that we have the ability to do that. Those are encouraging conversations that we're having in the. We understand why because we're involved in a lot of the debugging of these processes to understand.

    我們需要您幫助我們獲得該投資組合,他們正在確保我們有能力做到這一點。這些都是我們正在進行的令人鼓舞的對話。我們理解其中的原因,因為我們參與了大量的這些過程的調試。

  • You also have architectural changes that are just making it harder. And so the dynamics of supporting these advanced nodes, and as I mentioned before, we're in kind of the perfect storm for all the process flows, whether it's HBM and those are more challenging, whether it's advanced logic with bigger die and also the packaging. So that's why we feel pretty good about '26. And Bren can maybe add more color.

    架構上的變化也讓事情變得更加困難。因此,支援這些先進節點的動態,正如我之前提到的,我們正處於所有流程的完美風暴之中,無論是HBM(更具挑戰性),還是具有更大晶片的先進邏輯以及封裝。這就是我們對 26 年感到十分滿意的原因。布倫也許可以添加更多顏色。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Look, we all know our own business is probably best. So when we try to provide some color on where the industry is. Obviously, that's informed by what you know and our closest to. So we thought that it was prudent at this point given the nature of customer conversations to provide our perspective next year, the way we did.

    是的。瞧,我們都知道自己的生意可能是最好的。因此,當我們嘗試提供一些有關該行業現狀的資訊時。顯然,這是根據您所了解的情況以及我們最親近的人所了解的情況。因此,我們認為,考慮到客戶對話的性質,明年以我們的方式提供我們的觀點是謹慎的。

  • To Rick's point, we do see opportunities for our business to continue to inflect. One thing about larger die is it increases defect density challenge where everybody benefits from bigger wafers, but the defect density challenges when you have large die creates new opportunities for process control. When you look at high-performance compute, you also look at the value of those die.

    正如里克所說,我們確實看到了我們的業務繼續轉變的機會。更大晶片的一個問題是它增加了缺陷密度挑戰,每個人都會從更大的晶圓中受益,但是當你擁有大晶片時缺陷密度挑戰為過程控制創造了新的機會。當您查看高效能運算時,您也會查看這些晶片的價值。

  • And so that, given the nature of that, customers are investing more to ensure that those chips function as designed, and the performance specs are quite rigorous. So all that gives us a certain amount of confidence around our own business, and I tried to do my best to give you at least the perspective that I have today in -- at the end of July or what next year -- what we think next year looks like.

    因此,鑑於這種性質,客戶將投入更多資金來確保這些晶片能夠按照設計運行,並且性能規格非常嚴格。所以這一切都讓我們對自己的業務有一定的信心,我盡力向你們至少介紹一下我今天對 7 月底或明年的看法——我們對明年的看法。

  • Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

    Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

  • Thank you. Appreciate that.

    謝謝。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks for taking the question. Yeah. Maybe just a follow-up to that kind of line of questioning. If we think about just -- you talked about the rising and diversity design that starts in HPC increasing KLA's relevancy.

    是的,感謝您提出這個問題。是的。也許只是對此類問題的後續追問。如果我們考慮一下——您談到了從 HPC 開始的崛起和多樣性設計增加了 KLA 的相關性。

  • I guess, how do you think about just the sample rates or what that does to sample rates for process control? Do we just think about that as being maybe the peak to trough is less steep on a new node ramping? Or is this kind of a step function higher in terms of sample rates?

    我想,您如何看待取樣率或它對製程控制的取樣率有何影響?我們是否可以認為,在新節點上升時,峰谷之間的變化可能不那麼陡峭?或者這種階躍函數在取樣率方面是否更高?

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. This is another interesting development, Joe. And I'll -- as we have that same question, if you go back historically, you'd have a new node, you would ramp at the beginning of time, you'd ramp it up and then you run it in volume. And so you see process control intensity most -- highest at the front end, right? That's what you're referring to.

    是的。喬,這又是一個有趣的發展。因為我們有同樣的問題,如果回顧歷史,你會發現一個新的節點,你會在時間的開始階段加速生產,然後逐步增加產量,最後大量生產。因此,您會看到過程控制強度在前端最高,對嗎?這就是你提到的內容。

  • What's happened now, though, is because there are multiple designs, what we're seeing is they'll be bug, the customer will debug a new process on a specific device type, a specific wafer and they'll around that. But not long after, you'll get other designs that are coming in that have their own version of those ramps, and they're not the same.

    然而,現在發生的情況是,由於存在多種設計,我們看到它們會出現錯誤,客戶將在特定設備類型、特定晶圓上調試新流程,並圍繞此進行操作。但不久之後,你會看到其他有自己版本的坡道的設計,而且它們並不相同。

  • And in many cases, the process flows for different customers are different. The die size might be different. So you're really having a compounding of ramps inside what looks like HBM and a lot of these HBM fabs are actually doing process ramps of the new nodes, plus there are continued improvements inside of that node in terms of what that capability.

    而且在很多情況下,不同客戶的流程是不同的。晶片尺寸可能不同。因此,您實際上在類似 HBM 的內部進行了複合坡道,而許多 HBM 晶圓廠實際上正在進行新節點的製程坡道,此外,就該節點內部的功能而言,還在持續改進。

  • And even to one degree, we saw somebody go back to a prior node and introduce more process control because what was introduced into that prior node was a larger die. And so it's not the traditional model people think of when you go back in time of you ramp it and then you run it. That's not what's happening.

    甚至在某種程度上,我們看到有人回到先前的節點並引入更多的過程控制,因為在先前的節點中引入的是更大的晶片。因此,它並不是人們回想起來所想的傳統模型,也就是先提升它然後再運行它。但事實並非如此。

  • There's multiple ramps because every one of these -- these devices come in. There's some benefit to some customers to not be first with their advanced design. In fact, there's an economic benefit coming in six months later, but it doesn't make it easier to ramp it in the production.

    有多個坡道,因為每一個這些 — — 這些設備都要進來。對某些客戶來說,不先採用先進的設計也有一定的好處。事實上,六個月後就會產生經濟效益,但這並不會使產量更容易提高。

  • So that's why when we look out and we look at the distribution and we were looking for -- are we seeing that effect of seeing it front-end loaded then the answer is no. That's not what we're seeing. In fact, in some cases, we're seeing it going back because the -- these waivers are so valuable that if there's an entitlement of yield and they can get more, they're actually putting in more process control to squeeze those lines to get more capability. So very different than the traditional view of how process control ramps with the new technology node.

    所以這就是為什麼當我們觀察分佈並尋找時 - 我們是否看到了前端加載的效果,那麼答案是否定的。我們看到的並不是這樣的。事實上,在某些情況下,我們看到它正在回落,因為這些豁免非常有價值,如果有收益權,他們可以獲得更多,他們實際上會投入更多的製程控制來擠壓這些生產線以獲得更多的產能。這與關於過程控制如何隨著新技術節點而發展的傳統觀點非常不同。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Joe, the other thing is that when these nodes are well adopted. So the design levels are high, then that limits what our customers are able to do in terms of trying to reuse their equipment at least as it relates to our products. And so as we've had a litho road map, we've had new architectures, the Moore's Law attributes have been good that drive the design environment high, then it limits the reuse of capacity. There's a number of technical challenges that also limit it, but certainly, the adoption levels of the leading edge by multiple designs is a factor as well.

    喬,另一件事是當這些節點被很好地採用時。因此設計水平很高,這限制了我們的客戶在嘗試重複使用與我們的產品相關的設備方面的能力。因此,我們有了光刻路線圖,有了新的架構,摩爾定律的屬性很好,推動了設計環境的提高,然後它限制了容量的重複使用。還有許多技術挑戰限制了它,但當然,多種設計對尖端技術的採用程度也是一個因素。

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And let me add two more things. because you have multiple reticles, reticles have always been 100%, right? You're inspecting all the reticles to make sure, and then you have a recall, but you're inspecting them to make sure they're good. And why? Because they're so expensive and the cost of failure is so high.

    讓我再補充兩點。因為你有多個標線,所以標線一直都是 100%,對嗎?您要檢查所有的標線以確保無誤,然後您進行召回,但您要檢查它們以確保它們是好的。為什麼?因為它們太貴了,而且失敗的代價也太高了。

  • We're actually seeing that dynamic in packaging, too. Because the cost of these advanced packages are so high that they're running at 100%. So that doesn't even fall off. That's just because of the cost structure of those. So multiple situations, it's not as easy to model as it used to be, but it's good for process control intensity.

    事實上,我們也在包裝領域看到了這種動態。因為這些高級套件的成本太高,以至於它們的運作效率達到 100%。所以它甚至不會掉下來。這只是因為它們的成本結構。因此,在多種情況下,建模並不像以前那麼容易,但這有利於過程控制強度。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • That's super helpful. And maybe just as a follow-up, I think earlier to your question, you said, and correct me if I'm wrong, but you said reticle revenue -- reticle inspection revenue this year would be a record or pretty strong growth. Can you help us just understand like what's driving that? I know that like China had been a source of demand for that, but I think there's also quite a bit of demand on leading edge or in minus 1 nodes.

    這非常有幫助。也許只是作為後續問題,我想之前你說過,如果我錯了請糾正我,但你說今年的光罩收入 - 光罩檢查收入將創下紀錄或相當強勁的增長。您能幫助我們理解造成這種情況的原因嗎?我知道中國一直是這方面的需求來源,但我認為在前沿或負 1 節點方面也有相當大的需求。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Joe. So China is a factor there, right? Because the very limited number of captive mash shops, so investments to develop merchant mask ecosystem. So there is legacy node reticle tools that are continuing to be a factor for us.

    是的,喬。所以中國是一個因素,對吧?由於自有面膜店數量非常有限,因此需要投資開發面膜商家生態系統。因此,遺留節點標線工具對我們來說仍然是一個因素。

  • Requalification opportunities in the fab given the nature of the number of designs, the value that Rick talked about and the limited use of pellicles is also a factor. The other thing that you have that's also driving it is more single die since most of the reticles, let's say, 60% plus of reticles are single reticles, you need to inspect those reticles against a reference. And so whether that is a database reference of the design, whether that's a different golden reference, then that's also a factor.

    考慮到設計數量的性質、Rick 談到的價值以及防護膜的有限使用,晶圓廠的重新認證機會也是一個因素。另一個推動因素是單一晶片數量較多,因為大多數光罩(比如說 60% 以上的光罩)都是單一光罩,您需要根據參考來檢查這些光罩。因此,這是否是設計的資料庫參考,是否是不同的黃金參考,那麼這也是一個因素。

  • We're also seeing benefit in terms of print check on the broadband plasma Gen 4 platform -- or Gen 5, that one is in Gen 5 platform. That is doing reticle qual as well. And that business shows up in our in our optical inspection results and not in patterning.

    我們還看到了寬頻等離子 Gen 4 平台(或 Gen 5,即 Gen 5 平台)在列印檢查方面的好處。這也是在進行標線品質檢查。這項業務體現在我們的光學檢測結果中,而不是圖案中。

  • But there's a number of drivers and a ton of investment happening by customers to ensure that these reticles are -- the fidelity of the pattern is good and that they're not introducing any defectivity because you need 100% defect detection reticle inspection or you print that defect on to every guy. So a number of good drivers across multiple products.

    但是,客戶有很多驅動因素和大量投資來確保這些光罩 - 圖案的保真度良好,並且不會引入任何缺陷,因為您需要 100% 的缺陷檢測光罩檢查,否則您會將缺陷印在每個人身上。因此,多種產品中都存在許多優秀的驅動程式。

  • Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Rick Wallace - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • But just to point out, what Bren talked about using optical for print check, that is not included when we say we're having a record year in medical, but it's without that.

    但需要指出的是,布倫談到使用光學進行列印檢查,這並沒有包括在內,當我們說我們在醫療領域創下了紀錄的一年時,但事實並非如此。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

    瑞銀的提摩西·阿庫裡。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Bren, can you -- I know you're going to shift how you report backlog and RPO, but I think that's maybe with the new fiscal year. So can you give us RPO?

    布倫,你能——我知道你會改變報告積壓和 RPO 的方式,但我認為這可能要到新的財政年度才會改變。那麼你能為我們提供 RPO 嗎?

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So we'll report in the 10-K, I think we're going to file it here in another week or so. RPO will be somewhere around in the neighborhood of $7.9 billion.

    是的。所以我們會在 10-K 中報告,我想我們會在一周左右的時間內在這裡提交它。RPO 的金額約為 79 億美元左右。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • So it came down by like $1 billion?

    所以下降了 10 億美元?

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Came down by about that much, yeah. We're starting to see, as we said earlier, as we've shipped through a lot of the long backlog customers now and some of the supply-constrained products, we're now seeing our business being driven by our long-standing customers that operate with shorter lead times.

    是的,下降了那麼多。正如我們之前所說,我們開始看到,隨著我們現在已經向許多長期積壓的客戶和一些供應受限的產品發貨,我們現在看到我們的業務是由交貨時間較短的長期客戶推動的。

  • So now we're normalizing lead time. We've been talking about it for a number of quarters that we were moving towards it. I think now we're getting into that range where, look, our long-standing customers have historically six-to-eight-month lead times, the packaging business has two-to three-month lead times. So we're seeing a normalization of lead time that's happening here, and that's affecting the backlog level.

    所以現在我們正在規範交貨時間。我們已經討論了好幾個季度,我們正在朝著這個目標努力。我認為現在我們正進入這樣的範圍,你看,我們的長期客戶的歷史交貨時間為六到八個月,包裝業務的交貨時間為兩到三個月。因此,我們看到這裡發生的交貨時間正常化,並且影響了積壓水平。

  • It took a while to get here. We were up at, what, 18 months of backlog. Now we're down around eight months of backlog. You have to remember, the RPO number is significantly a systems number. So when you do the math on it, you have to compare it against the systems revenue. And so when you do that math, you end up in that seven-to-nine-month range that I talked about.

    到達這裡花了一段時間。我們的積壓工作已經長達 18 個月了。現在我們的積壓工作已經減少了大約八個月。您必須記住,RPO 數字實質上是一個系統數字。因此,當你進行計算時,你必須將其與系統收入進行比較。因此,當您進行計算時,您最終會得到我所說的七到九個月的範圍。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Yeah. I mean, we've been talking about that for a while that it's going to -- but it was the $1 billion that was stripped out by you. So basically that's canceled by you.

    是的。我的意思是,我們已經討論了一段時間了,但你剝奪了 10 億美元。所以基本上這是被你取消了。

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No. That was part of our shipments. I mean we don't really see our backlog cancel all that much. I mean we had to strip out backlog as it relates to export controls when that happen. But whenever we make adjustments that are debooking adjustments, those are typically related to an event like that. Our backlog tends to pull together what customer gives us an order.

    不。那是我們的貨物的一部分。我的意思是,我們確實沒有看到我們的積壓訂單被取消那麼多。我的意思是,當這種情況發生時,我們必須消除與出口管制相關的積壓。但每當我們做出取消預訂的調整時,這些調整通常都與這樣的事件有關。我們的積壓訂單往往會彙總客戶給我們的訂單。

  • And you have to remember, we had a number of new customers that were doing greenfield projects that to get a slot when you want it, what do we require? We require an order, we require a deposit, we require letters of credit.

    您必須記住,我們有許多新客戶正在進行綠地項目,為了在需要時獲得一個位置,我們需要什麼?我們需要訂單、我們需要定金、我們需要信用證。

  • So that was a big part of the backlog. Now you fast forward to where we are today and you look at our long-standing customers that you know well, well, those customers, we build the forecast with. And so the order to shipment timing tends to be in that six-to-eight-month time frame.

    所以這是積壓的很大一部分。現在您可以快轉到我們今天所處的位置,看看我們熟悉的長期客戶,我們與這些客戶一起制定預測。因此,訂單到出貨的時間往往在六到八個月的時間範圍內。

  • So we're seeing more of that business going forward, and that's reflected in the lower backlog levels. I would expect, now we've normalized, it to stay more or less in this range here going forward.

    因此,我們看到未來此類業務將進一步發展,這反映在積壓訂單水準的降低。我希望,現在我們已經實現了正常化,它在未來或多或少會保持在這個範圍內。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Thanks, And just on service, you were seeing up 10% for the year, but you seem to be running out of that? Is it like what's in this year. Can you talk about that?

    謝謝,僅就服務而言,您看到今年的服務增長了 10%,但是您似乎已經用完了這個數字?和今年的一樣嗎?你能談談這個嗎?

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • For the -- I'm sorry, Tim, you're breaking up a little bit. Service. Yeah, overall service. I think we're in that ballpark. Yeah, 10% plus range for the year.

    對於——我很抱歉,提姆,你有點崩潰了。服務。是的,整體服務。我認為我們已經達到了這個水平。是的,今年的成長幅度在 10% 以上。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Okay. So -- but it's still going to go up sequentially in September and December, right?

    好的。那麼——但 9 月和 12 月仍會連續上漲,對嗎?

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. It generally does, right? I think because as you add tools and tools come off of warranty, unless you have some situation where all of a sudden like you lose access to a fab, and we thought that might put some pressure on sequential growth.

    是的。一般情況下都是這樣的,對吧?我認為,因為隨著您添加工具並且工具不再保修,除非您遇到突然失去對晶圓廠訪問權限的情況,我們認為這可能會對連續增長帶來一些壓力。

  • But we've also seen the dynamics in our service business start to inflect in terms of performance requirements, availability requirements and our general attach rate. So it's the 52nd quarter of year-over-year growth for service and we'd expect to see sequential growth in service as we continue through the year.

    但我們也看到,我們的服務業務在效能要求、可用性要求和整體附加率方面開始發生變化。這是服務業連續第 52 個季度實現同比增長,我們預計全年服務業仍將實現連續增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Chin, Stifel.

    Brian Chin,Stifel。

  • Brian Chin - Analyst

    Brian Chin - Analyst

  • Hi there, other, thanks for sneaking me in here at the end. One of my questions is the kind of been asked here, which you remarked on pretty well, which is basically that these data center ships are kind of breathing life into minus 1 node, it sounds like. I think that's something that's pretty important to say.

    大家好,謝謝你最後讓我偷偷來到這裡。我的一個問題是這裡已經問過的,您對此評論得很好,基本上這些資料中心船聽起來就像是為負 1 個節點注入了活力。我認為這是非常重要的一點。

  • Maybe one last, my question will be to be mistaken, but I think when you discussed in the past, it sounds like your near-term opportunity set in advanced packaging was particularly in 2.5D or CoWoS packaging rather than an HBM. Is that the case?

    也許最後一個問題,我的問題是錯誤的,但我認為當您過去討論時,聽起來您在先進封裝方面的近期機會特別是在 2.5D 或 CoWoS 封裝而不是 HBM。是嗎?

  • And where is more of the -- is that the case, I guess? And also, are you addressing more inspection applications still? Or is metrology part of that as well?

    那麼更多的是──我想是這樣的嗎?此外,您是否還在處理更多的檢查申請?或者計量學也是其中的一部分?

  • Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bren Higgins - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, most of share gains that we've seen so far have been in the logic area with Colas, although we are seeing increased momentum in HBM. So we're pretty excited about directionally where that's going. So it certainly is informing our view of share opportunities. It is more defect loaded than metrology because sampling rates for metrology tend to be a little bit lower as the design rules that are typically used in packaging are larger. And so that limits some of the metrology opportunities in the short run.

    是的,到目前為止,我們看到的份額成長大部分來自 Colas 的邏輯領域,儘管我們看到 HBM 的成長勢頭正在增強。因此,我們對未來的發展方向感到非常興奮。因此,它確實影響了我們對股票機會的看法。它比計量法含有更多的缺陷,因為計量法的取樣率往往要低一些,而封裝中通常使用的設計規則更大。因此,這在短期內限制了一些計量機會。

  • But from an inspection point of view to Rick's earlier point, the sampling rates are incredibly high because you don't want to miss defects, you don't want to overkill devices either. So you don't want to under kill and miss something. They don't want to oversell either. And I think so that's driving higher sensitivity requirements from KLA.

    但是從檢查的角度來看,對於 Rick 之前的觀點,採樣率非常高,因為您不想錯過缺陷,也不想過度使用設備。所以你不想因為殺戮不足而錯過什麼。他們也不想過度銷售。我認為這對 KLA 的靈敏度提出了更高的要求。

  • Brian Chin - Analyst

    Brian Chin - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this time, Mr. Kessel, I'd like to turn things back to you, sir, for any closing comments.

    凱塞爾先生,現在我想把話題轉回給您,先生,請您做最後的評論。

  • Kevin Kessel - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Kevin Kessel - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Just thank you, everybody, for your time, for your interest in KLA. We appreciate it. We know it's a busy week of earnings. It's a busy day. We'll be in touch as we go forward.

    非常感謝大家抽出時間對 KLA 感興趣。我們對此表示感謝。我們知道這是獲利繁忙的一周。今天很忙。我們將在後續工作中保持聯繫。

  • Thank you. Bye-bye.

    謝謝。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Goodbye.

    再見。