科磊 (KLAC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Chelsea, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation December Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions).

午安.我叫切爾西，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時，我歡迎大家參加 KLA Corporation 2023 年 12 月季度財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員說明）。

Thank you for joining the earnings call to discuss the December 2023 results and the March quarter outlook. I'm joined by our CEO, Rick Wallace, and our CFO, Bren Higgins.

感謝您參加財報電話會議，討論 2023 年 12 月的業績和 3 月份的季度前景。我們的執行長 Rick Wallace 和財務長 Bren Higgins 也加入了我的行列。

We will discuss today's results release after the market close and available on our IR website, along with supplemental materials. Today's discussion is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. Our full year references all relate to calendar years. A detailed reconciliation of non-GAAP -- of GAAP to non-GAAP results in the earnings material posted on our website. KLA's IR website also contains future investor events as well as presentations, corporate governance information and links to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report and quarterly reports on 10-Q and 10-K.

我們將在收盤後討論今天的業績發布，並可在我們的投資者關係網站上獲取，以及補充資料。除非另有說明，今天的討論是在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行的。我們的全年參考資料均與日曆年相關。我們網站上發布的收益資料中包含了非公認會計原則（GAAP 與非公認會計原則）的詳細調節結果。 KLA 的 IR 網站還包含未來的投資者活動以及演示文稿、公司治理資訊以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件的鏈接，包括我們最新的年度報告以及 10-Q 和 10-K 季度報告。

Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosure in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

我們今天的評論受到美國證券交易委員會文件中風險因素揭露所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。任何前瞻性陳述，包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述，都面臨這些風險，KLA 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述一定會實現。我們的實際結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中的預測有很大差異。

Rick will begin the call with some comments and quarterly highlights. Bren will conclude with our financial highlights, including our guidance and outlook. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Rick Wallace. Rick?

里克將在電話會議開始時發表一些評論和季度要點。布倫將總結我們的財務亮點，包括我們的指導和展望。我現在將把電話轉給我們的執行長里克華萊士。瑞克？

Thank you, Kevin. I will briefly summarize KLA's performance for 2023 calendar year and the December quarter and then set up our view for 2024. For 2023 KLA revenue was almost $9.7 billion, down 8% versus the prior year. This was higher than our expectations coming into the year as strength from legacy node customers and semiconductor infrastructure offset weaker-than-expected leading-edge investments in both logic and memory. While overall WFE spending was down for the year, there were areas of growth in the KLA business segments, including the infrastructure business supporting wafer and mass manufacturers, automotive and specialty semiconductor process equipment.

謝謝你，凱文。我將簡要總結 KLA 2023 年日曆年和 12 月份季度的業績，然後製定我們對 2024 年的看法。2023 年 KLA 收入近 97 億美元，比上年下降 8%。這高於我們對今年的預期，因為傳統節點客戶和半導體基礎設施的實力抵消了邏輯和記憶體領域弱於預期的前沿投資。儘管今年 WFE 總體支出有所下降，但 KLA 業務領域仍有成長，包括支援晶圓和大規模製造商的基礎設施業務、汽車和特殊半導體製程設備。

KLA's service business grew 7% to $2.2 billion for the year. The company continued to deliver strong industry-leading margins, with non-GAAP gross margins of 62% and a non-GAAP operating margin of 39%. Free cash flow grew 6% in 2023 to a record $3.2 billion.

今年 KLA 的服務業務成長了 7%，達到 22 億美元。該公司繼續保持業界領先的強勁利潤率，非 GAAP 毛利率為 62%，非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 39%。 2023 年自由現金流成長 6%，達到創紀錄的 32 億美元。

Moving to KLA's December quarter results, which were ahead of expectations as revenue improved 4% sequentially to $2.49 billion. Quarterly non-GAAP net income was $839 million. GAAP diluted earnings per share was $4.28 and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $6.16. We saw sequential growth in all 3 of KLA's business segments. You can find specific details in our shareholder letter released earlier today.

來看 KLA 12 月季度業績，該業績超出預期，營收季增 4% 至 24.9 億美元。非 GAAP 季度淨利為 8.39 億美元。 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 4.28 美元，非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 6.16 美元。我們看到 KLA 的所有 3 個業務部門都實現了連續成長。您可以在我們今天早些時候發布的股東信中找到具體細節。

Additional highlights in the quarter include growing adoption for KLA's 8900 Series platform for high-throughput macro inspection, increased demand in the legacy node and advanced packaging categories made the platform one of the best performing product lines in our optical inspection portfolio in 2023. Continued growth in AI enables KLA's differentiation and helps drive industry growth. We continue to deploy deep learning and physics based algorithms across KLA's inspection and metrology product portfolio. This has improved signal and noise recognition and reduced process learning cycles as customers resolved critical yield challenges.

本季的其他亮點包括越來越多地採用KLA 8900 系列平台進行高通量宏觀檢測、傳統節點和先進封裝類別的需求增加，使該平台成為2023 年我們光學檢測產品組合中性能最佳的產品線之一。持續成長人工智慧領域的研究使 KLA 能夠實現差異化，並有助於推動產業成長。我們繼續在 KLA 的檢測和計量產品組合中部署深度學習和基於物理的演算法。隨著客戶解決了關鍵的良率挑戰，這提高了訊號和雜訊識別並縮短了製程學習週期。

KLA's Service business grew 1% on a sequential quarterly basis to $565 million and remained on track to resume the targeted 12% to 14% annual revenue growth trajectory in calendar 2024. As we look at CY '24, I'm encouraged by recent reports from many of our customers that the demand environment is expected to continue to gradually improve throughout the calendar year. Through collaboration with customers, KLA is focused on preparing our teams for a return to growth as the leading edge and leveraging the KLA operating model to ensure readiness to support our customers' needs as the demand environment improves.

KLA 的服務業務環比增長 1%，達到 5.65 億美元，並預計在 2024 年恢復 12% 至 14% 的年收入增長軌跡。當我們回顧 24 財年時，最近的報告令我深受鼓舞我們的許多客戶表示，預計全年需求環境將持續逐步改善。透過與客戶的合作，KLA 致力於讓我們的團隊做好準備，以恢復成長為領先優勢，並利用 KLA 營運模式確保隨著需求環境的改善做好準備，支援客戶的需求。

In the near term, we see the March quarter at the low point for the year, we expect business levels to improve as we progress throughout the year. The KLA team will, as always, prioritize commitments to our customers and executing on our product growth maps.

短期內，我們認為三月季度處於年內低點，我們預計業務水準將隨著全年的進展而改善。 KLA 團隊將一如既往地優先考慮對客戶的承諾並執行我們的產品成長地圖。

I'll now hand the call over to Bren to provide more specifics around the financials and our guidance.

我現在將把電話轉交給布倫，以提供有關財務狀況和我們的指導的更多細節。

Thanks, Rick. Our results demonstrated the consistent execution of our global team. Despite the challenges and complexity of the current industry environment, KLA continues to show resourcefulness and the ability to adapt to meeting customers' changing and fluid requirements. Revenue was $2.49 billion, slightly above the guidance midpoint of $2.45 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $6.16, above the midpoint of the guided range of $5.26 to $6.46. GAAP diluted EPS was $4.28. GAAP EPS was negatively impacted by $1.59 for goodwill and purchased intangible asset impairment charge.

謝謝，瑞克。我們的結果證明了我們全球團隊的一致執行力。儘管當前行業環境充滿挑戰和複雜性，KLA 仍然表現出足智多謀和適應客戶不斷變化的需求的能力。收入為 24.9 億美元，略高於 24.5 億美元的指導中位數。非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 6.16 美元，高於指導範圍 5.26 至 6.46 美元的中點。 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益為 4.28 美元。 GAAP 每股盈餘受到 1.59 美元商譽和購買無形資產減損費用的負面影響。

Non-GAAP gross margin was 62.6%, just above the high end of the guidance range of 60.5% to 62.5%. Non-GAAP operating margin was 40.7%. Quarterly non-GAAP net income was $839 million, GAAP net income was $583 million. Cash flow from operations was $622 million, and free cash flow was $545 million.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 62.6%，略高於指引範圍 60.5% 至 62.5% 的上限。非 GAAP 營運利潤率為 40.7%。季度非 GAAP 淨利為 8.39 億美元，GAAP 淨利為 5.83 億美元。營運現金流為 6.22 億美元，自由現金流為 5.45 億美元。

As I just mentioned, during the quarter, KLA recognized a goodwill and purchase of intangible asset impairment charge of $219 million for the PCB and display reporting unit attributed to a weaker long-term outlook, primarily for the flat panel display business. We have begun investigating strategic alternatives for this business, which accounted to 1.4% of total revenue in calendar 2023. The breakdown of revenue by reportable segments and end markets and major products and regions can be found within the shareholder letter and slides.

正如我剛才提到的，在本季度，KLA 為 PCB 和顯示器報告部門確認了 2.19 億美元的商譽和無形資產購買減損費用，原因是長期前景疲軟，主要是平板顯示器業務。我們已經開始研究該業務的策略替代方案，該業務佔 2023 年總收入的 1.4%。按可報告部門和終端市場以及主要產品和地區劃分的收入細目可以在股東信和幻燈片中找到。

Turning to the balance sheet. KLA ended the quarter with $3.3 billion in total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, debt of $5.95 billion and a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by strong investment-grade ratings from all 3 agencies. In December 2023, Fitch rating upgraded KLA's debt rating to A from A- with a stable outlook.

轉向資產負債表。截至本季末，KLA 的現金、現金等價物和有價證券總額為 33 億美元，債務為 59.5 億美元，債券期限結構靈活且有吸引力，並得到所有 3 家機構的強勁投資級評級的支持。 2023年12月，惠譽將KLA的債務評等從A-上調至A，展望穩定。

Moving to our outlook. Looking ahead to calendar 2024, the exact timing of a meaningful and sustainable resumption in WFE investment growth continues to remain uncertain. Though there are signs of improvements in some end markets, this improvement is off low levels, impacting our customers' profitability and cash flow generation in the near term. KLA's overall demand is stabilizing around current business levels, plus or minus the guidance ranges. As of now, this translates into KLA revenue bottoming in the March quarter, driven mostly by a customer project delay occurring in the last couple of months.

轉向我們的展望。展望 2024 年，WFE 投資成長有意義且可持續恢復的確切時間仍不確定。儘管一些終端市場有改善的跡象，但這種改善程度較低，影響了我們客戶的短期獲利能力和現金流量。 KLA 的整體需求穩定在目前業務水準（加上或減去指導範圍）附近。截至目前，這意味著 KLA 收入在 3 月季度觸底，這主要是由於過去幾個月發生的客戶專案延遲所致。

Based on current [vast] schedules and our June quarter shipment plan, we expect sequential growth to return in the June quarter and continue for the remainder of the calendar year. For calendar 2024, we currently expect WFE demand to be in the mid- to high $80 billion roughly flat to modestly up from the anticipated level in calendar year 2023. We expect that the second half of the calendar year will be stronger than the first half for WFE investment. This WFE estimate reflects our current top-down assessment of industry demand as follows: In memory, we expect WFE investment to be slightly up from low levels with investments focused on high bandwidth memory capacity and leading-edge node development.

根據目前的[大量]時間表和我們六月季度的發貨計劃，我們預計環比增長將在六月季度恢復，並持續到日曆年的剩餘時間。對於 2024 年，我們目前預計 WFE 需求將在 800 億美元的中高位，與 2023 年的預期水準大致持平或小幅上升。我們預計該日曆年下半年將強於上半年用於 WFE 投資。這項 WFE 估算反映了我們目前對產業需求的自上而下的評估，如下：在記憶體方面，我們預計 WFE 投資將從低水準略有上升，投資重點是高頻寬記憶體容量和前沿節點開發。

Both NAND and DRAM fabs are still a low utilization levels as consumer markets have not yet returned to the growth levels needed to bring factory utilization back to the high levels seen in recent years. Once customers consume this excess capacity and focus on node migration, we would expect to see new investments.

由於消費市場尚未恢復到工廠利用率恢復到近年來高水準所需的成長水平，NAND 和 DRAM 工廠的利用率仍然較低。一旦客戶消耗掉這些過剩產能並專注於節點遷移，我們預計會看到新的投資。

Foundry/logic is expected to be slightly up with leading-edge investment returning to modest growth levels. Legacy investment declining versus 2023 and China legacy node investments remaining relatively flattish to current levels.

隨著領先投資恢復到適度成長水平，代工/邏輯預計將小幅成長。與 2023 年相比，傳統投資有所下降，而中國傳統節點投資仍相對持平於當前水準。

As for guidance, KLA's March quarter guidance is as follows: Revenue is expected to be $2.3 billion, plus or minus $125 million. Foundry/logic is forecasted to be approximately 60%, and memory is expected to be 40% of Semi Process Control systems revenue. Within memory, DRAM is expected to be about 85% of the segment mix and NAND the remaining 15%.

至於指導，KLA 3 月季度指引如下：營收預計為 23 億美元，上下浮動 1.25 億美元。代工/邏輯預計將佔半製程控制系統收入的約 60%，記憶體預計將佔 40%。在記憶體領域，DRAM 預計將佔細分市場的 85% 左右，而 NAND 則佔剩餘的 15%。

Non-GAAP gross margin is forecasted to be in a range of 61.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point as product mix weakens quarter-to-quarter due to lower overall semiconductor process control systems revenue. For calendar 2024, based on current industry outlook, top line growth expectations, higher forecasted growth in services and expected systems product mix, we are modeling gross margins to be relatively stable around the mid 61% range to what we delivered in 2023. Variability quarter-to-quarter is typically driven by product mix fluctuations.

由於整體半導體製程控制系統收入下降，產品組合逐季減弱，非 GAAP 毛利率預計在 61.5% 上下浮動 1 個百分點。對於 2024 年，根據當前的產業前景、營收成長預期、服務的較高預測成長和預期的系統產品組合，我們預期毛利率將相對穩定在 2023 年交付的 61% 左右。季度環比通常是由產品組合波動驅動的。

Operating expenses are forecasted in the March quarter to be approximately $545 million, relatively flat from the December quarter. Our calendar 2024 operating expenses, we expect $5 million to $10 million incremental growth per quarter beyond the March quarter, in line with expected sequential growth in revenue. Prototype material purchases can drive variability quarter-to-quarter.

預計 3 月季度的營運費用約為 5.45 億美元，與 12 月季度相比相對持平。我們預計 2024 年營運費用將比 3 月所在季度每季增加 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元，這與營收的預期環比增長一致。原型材料採購可能會導致季度與季度之間的變化。

For the calendar '24 tax rate based on current forecast, we do not expect material changes. You should continue using the 13.5% effective rate for modeling purposes. Other model assumptions for the March quarter include other income and expense net of approximately $45 million. GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be $4.93 plus or minus $0.60. A non-GAAP diluted EPS of $5.26 plus or minus $0.60. EPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 135.6 million shares.

對於基於當前預測的 24 日曆年稅率，我們預計不會有重大變化。您應該繼續使用 13.5% 的有效率進行建模。 3 月季度的其他模型假設包括扣除約 4,500 萬美元的其他收入和支出。 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益預計為 4.93 美元上下 0.60 美元。非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 5.26 美元加減 0.60 美元。每股盈餘指引基於約 1.356 億股的完全稀釋後股數。

In conclusion, we are optimistic that most end markets are showing signs of improvement. KLA will remain focused on supporting customers, executing on our product road map and positioning the company for a return of growth at the leading edge. The visibility into the precise timing of a sustainable demand recovery is still unclear, KLA is running the business to ensure delivery of a differentiated product portfolio that meets customers' technology road map requirements and to execute our business in line with our longer-term growth expectations.

總之，我們樂觀地認為大多數終端市場都顯示出改善的跡象。 KLA 將繼續專注於支援客戶，執行我們的產品路線圖，並使公司定位於領先優勢的成長回報。永續需求復甦的準確時間仍不清楚，KLA 正在經營業務，以確保交付滿足客戶技術路線圖要求的差異化產品組合，並根據我們的長期成長預期執行我們的業務。

The KLA operating model guiding best-in-class execution, KLA continues to implement strategic objectives, which are geared to drive outperformance. With a focus on customer success, delivering innovative and differentiated solutions and operational excellence, KLA is able to deliver industry-leading financial and free cash flow performance and return capital consistently. The past few years have strengthened our confidence in the increasing importance of process control and enabling technology advancements and optimizing yield at a high design mix volume production environment. This bodes well for KLA's long-term growth outlook despite still challenging near-term demand trends.

KLA 營運模式指導一流的執行，KLA 繼續實施旨在推動卓越績效的策略目標。 KLA 專注於客戶成功、提供創新和差異化解決方案以及卓越運營，能夠始終如一地提供行業領先的財務和自由現金流績效和資本回報。過去幾年增強了我們對製程控制日益重要性的信心，並在高設計混合批量生產環境中實現技術進步和優化產量。儘管近期需求趨勢仍面臨挑戰，但這對 KLA 的長期成長前景來說是個好兆頭。

In the meantime, KLA business continues to stabilize and the long-term secular trends driving semiconductor industry demand and investments in WFE remain very compelling.

與此同時，KLA 業務持續穩定，推動半導體產業需求和 WFE 投資的長期趨勢仍然非常引人注目。

That concludes the prepared remarks. Kevin, let's begin the Q&A.

準備好的發言到此結束。凱文，讓我們開始問答。

Thanks, Bren. Chelsea, if you can just give the instructions and set up the queue.

謝謝，布倫。切爾西，請您給予指示並安排隊列。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們將接受摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 提出的第一個問題。

It looks like relative to your prior view, the March quarter came in lower by roughly about $200 million. I know you talked about a customer project delay that materialized just over the last couple of months. It looks like based on your December quarter end market mix and expected March quarter mix that it's a foundry/logic customer. Was that a leading edge or mature node customer, was the delay more technology-related or just weak demand trends? And does the sequential growth outlook beyond March assume that this customer comes back this year?

看起來相對於您之前的觀點，3 月季度的收入減少了約 2 億美元。我知道您談到了過去幾個月發生的客戶專案延遲。根據您 12 月季度末的市場組合和預期 3 月季度的組合，它看起來像是代工廠/邏輯客戶。那是領先的還是成熟的節點客戶，延遲是與技術更多相關還是只是需求趨勢疲軟？三月之後的環比成長前景是否假設該客戶今年會回來？

Harlan, it's Bren. So yes, as we said in the prepared remarks, over the last couple of months, we had a project that we were planning to ship roughly a couple of hundred million dollars of business, too, that had a pushout that's extended, I think, somewhere around 12 months. So could we see it at the end of '24, maybe could be early '25 as well. So it was more leading edge centric. And as a result of that, as we backfill that business with other business, we did see the percent of China go up a little bit higher than we had thought we would see when we were giving guidance at the beginning of the quarter.

哈倫，是布倫。所以，是的，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，在過去的幾個月裡，我們有一個項目，我們計劃也運送大約幾億美元的業務，我認為該項目的推出時間已延長，大約12個月。那麼我們能否在 24 年底看到它，也許也可能在 25 年初看到它。所以它更以前沿為中心。因此，當我們用其他業務來填補該業務時，我們確實看到中國的百分比上升了一點，比我們在本季度初提供指導時所預期的要高一些。

So it was late in the quarter, obviously affected -- it didn't affect Q4 because of the moving around of other customers and slots but certainly had an effect on Q1. As we think about sequential improvement into the June quarter, we also have part of our revenue recognition policy is that when we ship to new customers, we have to go to acceptance to demonstrate that we can -- that our tools are meeting specifications around reliability and matching and so forth. And there are some shipments that we shipped at the end of Q4, and we're shipping it in the March quarter that are aligned with a couple of projects for new customers where the fabs are opening late in the quarter. So our ability to get those acceptances and complete that process could be potentially constrained.

所以這是在本季末，顯然受到了影響——由於其他客戶和時段的移動，它沒有影響第四季度，但肯定對第一季產生了影響。當我們考慮六月季度的連續改進時，我們的收入確認政策的一部分是，當我們向新客戶發貨時，我們必須通過驗收來證明我們可以——我們的工具滿足可靠性方面的規範以及匹配等等。我們在第四季度末發貨了一些貨物，我們將在三月份季度發貨，這些發貨與晶圓廠在本季度末開業的幾個新客戶項目相一致。因此，我們獲得這些接受並完成該流程的能力可能會受到限制。

So we'll see that revenue shift into the June quarter once you get the established performance, then that revenue happens at shipment going forward with that customer. But we do have some unique dynamics that are affecting us here in the first half. So it does give me some comfort about the sequential growth guidance as we move into June. But it is affecting what we ultimately guided for the March quarter, consistent with our revenue recognition policy.

因此，一旦獲得既定業績，我們將看到收入轉移到六月季度，然後該收入將在向該客戶發貨時發生。但我們確實有一些獨特的動力在上半場影響著我們。因此，當我們進入六月時，這確實讓我對連續成長指導感到一些安慰。但這正在影響我們對三月季度的最終指導，這與我們的收入確認政策是一致的。

No, I appreciate the insights there. Your total process control systems business outgrew WFE yet again, right, in calendar '23. Within that, Inspection significantly outperformed, right? It was only down 5%, but your Patterning business was down almost 20%, which is actually worse versus WFE. And it's like most of that full year underperformance was due to the sharp drop-off in patterning just in the December quarter. So was that tied to the customer pushout dynamics, as you mentioned? Or is it just the lumpy shipment trends in patterning? And I guess, do you guys expect process control systems business to outgrow WFE this year?

不，我很欣賞那裡的見解。在 23 年曆中，您的整體製程控制系統業務的成長再次超過了 WFE，對吧。其中，Inspection 的表現明顯優於其他公司，對嗎？只下降了 5%，但你們的 Patterning 業務卻下降了近 20%，這實際上比 WFE 更糟。全年表現不佳的大部分原因是去年第四季的模式急劇下降。正如您所提到的，這是否與客戶推出動態有關？還是只是圖案的出貨趨勢不穩定？我想，你們預計今年製程控制系統業務的成長會超過 WFE 嗎？

Yes. Great question, Harlan. I think -- if you think about our business and the composition and how it moves with customers, Inspection, especially the leading-edge Inspection is much more tied to development of new technology, whether it's in pilot or even ramp. And some of the metrology business is more tied to capacity. So when you see a falloff of capacity, it impacts metrology more than it would impact Inspection. And that's what we saw in '23.

是的。好問題，哈倫。我認為 - 如果你考慮一下我們的業務和組成以及它如何與客戶一起發展，檢查，特別是前沿檢查與新技術的開發更加緊密地聯繫在一起，無論是試點還是斜坡。有些計量業務與產能的關係較為密切。因此，當您看到容量下降時，它對計量的影響大於對檢查的影響。這就是我們在 23 年看到的情況。

Harlan, it's Bren. On the relative performance, we do feel pretty good about the performance overall when you think about how much legacy business was in the year and how the leading edge fell off, which typically drives higher process control intensity. Also in WFE this year was a little unique in that there was a lot of carryover WFE from 2022 for a number of peers. And so that showed up in '23, it was really activity that we started in 2022. So when you take into account those factors and look at how well we performed in '22 relative to the overall market, we were -- our growth rate was 4x what the market was.

哈倫，是布倫。就相對績效而言，當您考慮當年遺留業務的數量以及領先優勢如何下降（這通常會導致更高的流程控制強度）時，我們確實對整體績效感到非常滿意。今年的 WFE 也有點獨特，因為許多同行有許多 2022 年 WFE 的結轉。因此，這在 23 年就出現了，這實際上是我們在 2022 年開始的活動。因此，當你考慮到這些因素並看看我們在 22 年相對於整個市場的表現如何時，我們的成長率是市場價格的4 倍。

The fact that we're mostly, I think, in line, maybe a little bit better than the overall market in '23 is I think, a pretty good indicator of the growing process control intensity that we're excited about here at KLA.

事實上，我認為，我們基本上比 23 年的整體市場好一點，我認為這是一個很好的指標，表明我們對 KLA 的過程控制強度不斷增長感到興奮。

Our next question will come from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I just wanted to go back to the pushout. So that I just sort of understand, if we were to adjust for the couple of hundred million that's now pushed into the June quarter and assumed it was still in the March quarter, I guess, would you still expect that the June quarter would be up quarter-over-quarter? Or would it be more flattish like we were thinking or talking about last quarter, just the first half kind of still being a similar run rate of the business?

我只是想回到推出。所以我有點明白，如果我們要對現在推入六月季度的幾億美元進行調整，並假設它仍在三月季度，我想，您是否仍然期望六月季度會上漲季度環比？或者會像我們思考或談論的上個季度那樣更加平坦，只是上半年的業務運作率仍然相似？

Yes. I think it's more the latter, right? We've, obviously, got a lot of moving parts in how it affects the quarters. But as we talked about last quarter, we saw the business generally continuing at guided level. We guided was [$2.450 billion] right? We ended up outperforming by $40 million or so. So it would have been probably flattish, more or less. But this adjustment coming out obviously has the kind of impact, and I like sized it earlier. So flattish, and then we would expect to see the second half start to improve.

是的。我想更多的是後者吧？顯然，我們在它對季度的影響方面有很多變化。但正如我們在上個季度談到的那樣，我們看到業務總體上繼續保持在指導水平。我們指導的是[24.5億美元]，對嗎？我們最終的表現比其他公司高了 4000 萬美元左右。所以它可能或多或少是平的。但這次調整顯然會產生這種影響，我喜歡儘早調整規模。如此平淡，然後我們預計下半年會開始有所改善。

That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, I know you're going to -- you'll file your 10-Q probably tomorrow, but any color on where the RPO stood exiting the quarter?

這很有幫助。然後，作為後續行動，我知道您可能會在明天提交 10-Q，但本季度 RPO 的情況有什麼不同嗎？

Yes. So RPO was down about $200 million. I expected you to ask that question, Joe. So yes, $200 million quarter-to-quarter and with about 50%. So that takes you to about $10.6 billion, 45% to 50% of it to ship beyond 12 months. And then within that, we have about just short of $800 million in customer deposits.

是的。因此 RPO 減少了約 2 億美元。我以為你會問這個問題，喬。所以是的，季度環比為 2 億美元，佔比約為 50%。因此，這需要大約 106 億美元，其中 45% 到 50% 的發貨時間超過 12 個月。其中，我們的客戶存款約接近 8 億美元。

Our next question comes from CJ Muse with Cantor Fitzgerald.

我們的下一個問題來自 CJ Muse 和 Cantor Fitzgerald。

I guess, first question, can you speak to domestic China? And I guess, to what degree '23 was helped by bare wafer and reticle inspection and your thoughts on how that progresses in '24. And I guess with the mix shift to perhaps maybe incrementally more DRAM. And I don't know in terms of the really core legacy some shift is there. How are you seeing your kind of implied market share '24 versus '23?

我想，第一個問題，你能和中國國內談談嗎？我猜想，裸晶圓和掩模版檢查對 23 年的幫助有多大，以及您對 24 年進展的看法。我猜想隨著混合的轉變，可能會逐漸增加更多的 DRAM。我不知道在真正的核心遺產方面是否存在一些轉變。您如何看待 24 年與 23 年的隱含市佔率？

So for China -- C.J. I think overall, for China it looks pretty flattish year-to-year. We did benefit from the infrastructure investment that I talked a lot about over the course of the last year or so. I would expect that part of the business to come down some as some of the digestion is happening more so on the wafer side than the reticle side. And so that obviously will get made up by what I would expect to be slightly higher (inaudible). I think the memory piece will shift to -- potentially shift to another customer. So I could see that being flattish overall.

所以對中國來說——C.J.我認為總體而言，中國的情況每年看起來都相當平淡。我們確實從基礎設施投資中受益，我在過去一年左右的時間裡多次談到了這一點。我預計這部分業務會有所下降，因為一些消化更多地發生在晶圓側而不是掩模版側。因此，這顯然會被我期望的稍微高一些的東西所彌補（聽不清楚）。我認為記憶部分將轉移到——可能轉移到另一個客戶。所以我可以看到整體上是平淡的。

So feel pretty good about the trajectory of China. There is some lumpiness given our ASPs. But I think through the year, it will be relatively consistent across the quarters, notwithstanding the timing of certain fab projects and construction schedules complete and so on. And then I think we'll start to see the percent come down as we move into the second half as you see other customers drive our expected growth as we move through the second half of the year. What was the second part of the question, C.J.?

所以對中國的發展軌跡感覺很好。我們的 ASP 存在一些混亂。但我認為，儘管某些晶圓廠項目的時間安排和建設進度已完成等，但全年各季度的情況仍將相對一致。然後我認為，隨著我們進入下半年，我們將開始看到百分比下降，因為隨著我們進入下半年，您將看到其他客戶推動我們的預期成長。 C.J.，問題的第二部分是什麼？

No, you covered it. I guess, for my follow-up, as you think about kind of second half stronger than first half, how would you kind of rank order leading-edge foundry logic versus DRAM in terms of the key drivers for you?

不，你覆蓋了它。我想，對於我的後續行動，當你認為下半年比上半年更強時，你會如何對前沿代工邏輯與 DRAM 的關鍵驅動因素進行排序？

I think leading edge will be -- we'll see some growth in the year. It will be, I think, a fairly modest growth as we continue through the year. I would say -- I'm just kind of looking quickly here, I would say that it is reasonably balanced across the year. So I would think that we'll see -- I would expect to see DRAM probably be -- actually, I think it's going to be pretty balanced as well from a leading-edge DRAM point of view. So I think it's pretty balanced on both fronts. And then just ticking up a little bit as you move into the second half.

我認為領先優勢是——今年我們會看到一些成長。我認為，隨著今年的持續，這將是一個相當溫和的成長。我想說——我只是快速地觀察一下，我想說全年的情況相當平衡。所以我認為我們會看到——我希望看到 DRAM 可能是——實際上，我認為從前沿 DRAM 的角度來看，它也將非常平衡。所以我認為這在兩方面都相當平衡。然後當你進入下半場時，就會稍微上升一點。

Our next question will come from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將由 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen 提出。

I have 2 of them too. One is, I was just kind of curious, Rick, if you can kind of give color how to think about China revenues this year ex EPC?

我也有 2 個。一是，我只是有點好奇，Rick，如果你能解釋一下如何看待今年 EPC 以外的中國收入？

Well, Bren just covered that, but -- in the last question, but essentially flattish. I mean that's the general view for China this year. Flattish, little less infrastructure than we saw, especially, in wafer and reticle continues to remain basically level at this current run rate.

嗯，布倫剛剛談到了這一點，但是——在最後一個問題中，但基本上是平淡的。我的意思是，這是中國今年的普遍看法。基礎設施比我們看到的平坦、少一點，特別是在晶圓和光罩方面，在目前的運行速度下繼續保持基本水平。

Got it. Got it. And then just as a quick follow-up. If I look at kind of like where your optical inspection is and you said that revenue should start improving over time. Where is the lead times today for them -- today versus, let's say, 3 months or 6 months ago? And where do you expect them to go over the next few months?

知道了。知道了。然後作為快速跟進。如果我看看你的光學檢查在哪裡，你說收入應該隨著時間的推移開始改善。他們今天的交貨時間是多少——今天與 3 個月或 6 個月前相比？您預計他們在接下來的幾個月裡會去哪裡？

Yes. I'll start on that. On optical inspection, so we're still constrained on Gen 4 in terms of demand relative to our supply. I would expect to see supply increase this year. And that's part of our business, I would expect to do better than overall market as we move into '24. We have -- right now, I think we've seen some normalization around Gen 5 lead times, which tend to be somewhere between 7 and 9 months. But Gen 4 is still out over a year or so, but new capacity coming online. I think not enough for what we expect over the next year to 1.5 years. But then we have another tranche of capacity that will come online as we move into the '26 time frame.

是的。我將從那開始。在光學檢測方面，相對於我們的供應而言，我們對第四代的需求仍然受到限制。我預計今年供應量會增加。這是我們業務的一部分，隨著我們進入 24 年，我預計會比整體市場做得更好。現在，我認為我們已經看到第 5 代交付時間已經正常化，通常在 7 到 9 個月之間。但第四代仍需要一年左右的時間，但新容量即將上線。我認為這對我們未來 1.5 年的預期來說還不夠。但當我們進入 26 年的時間框架時，我們還有另一批產能將上線。

So we feel pretty good about what we have in terms of overall capacity, both within the -- within KLA and our facilities, but also within our supply chain to support the growth that we expect as we move into '25 with more meaningful WFE growth. And then as we target 2026 financial plan that we laid out back at our Investor Day in '22.

因此，我們對我們的整體產能感到非常滿意，無論是在KLA 和我們的設施內，還是在我們的供應鏈內，以支持我們在進入25 世紀時所期望的增長，並實現更有意義的WFE增長。然後，當我們瞄準 2026 年財務計畫時，我們在 22 年的投資者日制定了該計畫。

Our next question will come from Brian Chin with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題將由 Stifel 的 Brian Chin 提出。

I want to ask a few questions. Maybe just -- I think someone might have had asked this earlier in the queue, but taking your WFE sort of outlook for flat to modest based on your '23 base level, flat to modest growth this year, relative to sort of the pickup and maybe your revenue and WFE being sort of in the second half kind of modest, right? You probably would need to see an acceleration in the back quarters of the year in order to kind of get to say even towards the mid -- the low to mid-single-digit kind of growth that you're talking about for WFE at the moment. So I'm kind of curious, do you see process control intensity type of profile of spending this year sort of neutral in terms of WFE, do you think intensity is higher or lower, relative to this -- again that profile of spending this year? And then how does that reflect in your revenue?

我想問幾個問題。也許只是——我想有人可能在隊列中早些時候問過這個問題，但是根據你的 23 年基本水平，你的 WFE 前景是持平到溫和的，今年的增長相對於回升和增長持平到溫和。也許下半年你們的收入和WFE 有點溫和，對吧？你可能需要看到今年後幾個季度的加速成長，才能達到中期的水平——你所說的 WFE 在中低個位數的成長。片刻。所以我有點好奇，您是否認為今年支出概況的流程控制強度類型在 WFE 方面是中性的，您認為相對於此，今年支出概況的強度是更高還是更低？ ？那麼這如何反映在您的收入中？

Yes. No, you're right in terms of the math, right? As we look at the first half of this year, which is we'll call maybe slightly down versus the second half of '23 and then an acceleration in the second half would put you somewhere in the, I'll call it, high single-digit growth. That assumes that WFE is marginally up more or less from 2023. And so against that backdrop, with slight improvement in memory, I would expect our process control intensity to be roughly flat. So we were in the 7% depending on your WFE number, but assuming you're $87 billion to $88 billion in WFE in '23, about 7.6% or so. So I would expect it to be similar as we move into '24.

是的。不，你的數學計算是對的，對吧？當我們回顧今年上半年時，我們會認為與 23 年下半年相比可能略有下降，然後下半年的加速將使你處於我稱之為高單的某個位置- 數字增長。假設 WFE 較 2023 年略有上升。因此，在這種背景下，隨著記憶體略有改善，我預計我們的製程控制強度將大致持平。因此，我們屬於 7%，具體取決於您的 WFE 數字，但假設 23 年您的 WFE 為 870 億至 880 億美元，約為 7.6% 左右。所以我預計進入 24 年後情況會類似。

And as we expect to see more growth in leading edge investment as we move into '25, then we'll start to see favorability in terms of leading-edge dynamics that tend to drive our business and higher process control intensity overall. So I think that's how to think about it right now.

當我們進入 25 世紀時，我們預計前沿投資將出現更多成長，因此我們將開始看到前沿動態方面的優勢，這往往會推動我們的業務和整體流程控制強度的提高。所以我認為這就是現在的思考方式。

Okay. And then just given that emphasis this year on memory conversions and upgrade activity, can you comment on the areas where KLA benefits and how meaningful a benefit that this sort of spending represents?

好的。鑑於今年對記憶體轉換和升級活動的重視，您能否評論一下 KLA 受益的領域以及此類支出帶來的好處有多大意義？

You mean in terms of just where we benefit in memory investment or we expect to see -- I mean, certainly, you've got the -- in DRAM with more DRAM investment with the introduction of EUV, that's tend to be a positive dynamic for our business. We saw process control intensity increase as we saw EUV introduced into DRAM. So that's probably one of the bigger positives for us. So you're right, as you start to do technology conversions, instead of new capacity, it will be a little bit more muted investment. But we would expect to see our customers continue to invest in the -- in their leading-edge development for the next nodes. And so I think that will be the biggest driver for our business.

你的意思是，就我們在記憶體投資中受益的地方，或者我們期望看到的——我的意思是，當然，你已經得到了——隨著EUV 的引入，在DRAM 領域進行了更多的DRAM 投資，這往往是一個積極的動態為了我們的業務。當我們看到 EUV 引入 DRAM 時，我們看到製程控制強度增加。所以這對我們來說可能是更大的積極因素之一。所以你是對的，當你開始進行技術轉換時，而不是新產能，這將是更溫和的投資。但我們希望看到我們的客戶繼續投資於下一個節點的前沿開發。所以我認為這將是我們業務的最大驅動力。

Our next question will come from Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究公司的克里斯·卡索。

I guess, the first question is kind of looking beyond 2024 and, obviously, don't expect you to provide any guidance there, but take any opinion that you have. Some of the other equipment suppliers that have had longer lead times were starting to express a little more confidence on a turn on '25. I don't expect that you've seen that in your order book yet, but interested to see what your customers may be talking about.

我想，第一個問題是著眼於 2024 年之後的情況，顯然，不指望您在那裡提供任何指導，但請採納您的任何意見。其他一些交貨時間較長的設備供應商開始對 25 年的交貨期表現出更多的信心。我預計您還沒有在訂單簿中看到這一點，但有興趣了解您的客戶可能在談論什麼。

It's a great question. And we have definitely had those conversations. I think that customers are looking at from a couple of perspectives. One, we do have long leads on the most advanced optical tools, but there's also a lot of development that we're doing right now to make those tools even better for the advanced logic ramps that are coming. So we're actually engaged quite a bit in R&D and in pilot with those customers. So we have a pretty good sense. They're all bullish about '25. I can't think of a customer that we have on a leading edge that isn't bullish about '25. But as you say, we're not going to see the orders for those yet. But we're certainly having those conversations.

這是一個很好的問題。我們確實進行過這些對話。我認為客戶是從幾個角度來看的。第一，我們在最先進的光學工具方面確實擁有長期領先優勢，但我們現在正在進行大量開發，以使這些工具更好地適應即將到來的先進邏輯。因此，我們實際上在研發方面投入了大量精力，並與這些客戶進行了試點。所以我們有很好的感覺。他們都看好'25。我想不出我們擁有領先優勢的哪個客戶不看好 25 年。但正如你所說，我們還不會看到這些訂單。但我們確實正在進行這些對話。

But more importantly, we're seeing the discussions happen around capability that we're demonstrating as they do pilot. The other thing is we're seeing a trend toward more designs, and we talked about this for the past several years. One of the leading indicators for us is the advanced designs because that's an indicator of how broad a node is going to be.

但更重要的是，我們看到圍繞著我們在試點過程中展示的能力展開了討論。另一件事是我們看到了更多設計的趨勢，過去幾年我們一直在討論這個問題。對我們來說，領先指標之一是先進的設計，因為它是節點寬度的指標。

And we're seeing that continue and that will drive both reticle business but also is a good leading indicator for the strength of '25. That's why one of the objectives for the company is to prepare for growth as leading edge because that's what we believe will happen over the next 24 months. As Bren indicated, not the next 6 months, we should start to see the green shoots of that toward the end of the year, and then we'll see it in '25 as the way we're modeling the business and our investment right now.

我們看到這種情況持續下去，這將推動光罩業務，同時也是 '25 實力的良好領先指標。這就是為什麼公司的目標之一是為領先優勢的成長做好準備，因為我們相信這將在未來 24 個月內發生。正如布倫指出的那樣，不是接下來的 6 個月，我們應該在年底開始看到這一點的萌芽，然後我們將在 25 年看到它作為我們對業務和投資進行建模的方式現在。

Got it. That's very helpful. As a start-up, with regard to the foundry/logic business, would you characterize, and I guess, what you talked about your WFE assumptions is some kind of slight growth this year. Is it safe to say that, that growth is either tied to new node deployments and kind of technology upgrades and such as opposed to capacity at this point?

知道了。這非常有幫助。作為一家新創企業，關於代工/邏輯業務，您是否會描述，我猜，您所談論的 WFE 假設是今年的某種輕微增長。可以肯定地說，這種增長要么與新節點部署和某種技術升級等相關，而不是與目前的容量相關嗎？

It's a little bit of capacity, too. I mean '23 was down, right? And so we're seeing some expansion in our capacity. The big node ramps aren't really happening as much this year, which is part of why the WFE gets driven up. And you heard TSM's call, and I think they are fairly bullish on their forecast, but we'd have to see what happens in the early parts of '25 for those ramps on, especially, the newest technologies.

這也算是一點點的能力吧。我的意思是'23 下降了，對嗎？因此，我們看到我們的產能有所擴大。今年大型節點的爬坡並沒有發生那麼多，這也是 WFE 被推高的部分原因。你聽到了 TSM 的電話，我認為他們對自己的預測相當樂觀，但我們必須看看 25 年初會發生什麼，尤其是最新技術。

And we would expect the legacy business non-China to be lower in '24 than '23. So there's -- so it's being offset. You've got some improvement with the leading edge investment offset by some of the non-China legacy falling off a bit. So that's how we get to our forecast. And we'll see as we start -- we're having these conversations with customers. We're certainly planning for it from a capacity point of view, and we'll see as we progress through the year as we start to firm up when those shipments will actually start to take place.

我們預計 24 年非中國的傳統業務將低於 23 年。因此，它正在被抵消。你已經得到了一些改善，領先的投資被一些非中國遺產的下降所抵消。這就是我們得出預測的方式。當我們開始時，我們就會看到——我們正在與客戶進行這些對話。我們當然是從產能的角度進行規劃，隨著今年的進展，我們將看到這些發貨何時真正開始進行，我們將開始確定這一點。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

You talked about memory utilization remaining low. And, I guess, I feel like you guys kind of talked about that relatively early, and then you saw it kind of static. We've heard from memory customers, all kinds of things about different times that they brought it down and like some of them bought it up. I just want to confirm that you're seeing that as kind of a steady trend? And then can you talk about how that affects your the services revenue you can get from those guys?

您談到記憶體利用率仍然很低。而且，我想，我覺得你們相對較早地談論過這個問題，然後你們就看到了它的靜態。我們從記憶體客戶那裡聽到了各種各樣的事情，他們在不同的時間把它拿下來，就像他們中的一些人買了它一樣。我只是想確認您是否認為這是穩定的趨勢？然後你能談談這如何影響你從這些人那裡獲得的服務收入嗎？

Yes. But having met with a number of memory customers recently, there's a marked difference in their tone right now. And so when we talked to them last year, it was -- there's a lot of (inaudible) looks about -- because they had been ready for a much bigger consumption of memory. And now I think they're starting to turn the corner on that. We do see conversion technology, but utilization is -- hasn't really changed much. Service continues to be higher than -- historically, we -- our utilization rates on our equipment are higher than historically, but because I think customers, even those that have the ability to flex down the utilization on our systems have chosen not to.

是的。但最近與一些記憶體客戶會面後，他們的語氣現在有明顯的不同。因此，當我們去年與他們交談時，有很多（聽不清楚）的表情，因為他們已經準備好消耗更多的記憶體。現在我認為他們正在開始扭轉局面。我們確實看到了轉換技術，但利用率並沒有真正改變太多。服務繼續高於歷史上的水平，我們設備的利用率高於歷史水平，但因為我認為客戶，即使是那些有能力降低我們系統利用率的客戶也選擇不這樣做。

And so that's been a real strength for us. And why services for KLA did so well in '23, and we expect that growth to resume to the numbers we targeted a couple of years ago for '24 and beyond. So I'd say the posture is different, and we're going to -- and we expect to see that continue to strengthen throughout the year.

所以這對我們來說是真正的優勢。為什麼 KLA 的服務在 23 年表現如此出色，我們預計成長將恢復到我們幾年前為 24 年及以後設定的目標。所以我想說，這種態勢是不同的，我們將——而且我們預計這一態勢將在全年繼續加強。

The customers don't have the same level of redundancy with what they buy from KLA versus a lot of process equipment. And when you're focused on trying to be as efficient with your capital as you can, you'll tend to really focus on trying to drive yield. So the way they buy process control, they don't buy a lot of extra. So they take capacity offline for a process, they tend to run process control much more consistently. The customers that cut more in terms of utilization earlier have come back more. I think overall, to Rick's statement, it's been fairly flat overall.

與從 KLA 購買的設備相比，客戶從 KLA 購買的設備沒有同等程度的冗餘。當你專注於盡可能有效率地利用你的資本時，你往往會真正專注於提高收益率。因此，他們購買過程控制的方式是，他們不會購買太多額外的東西。因此，他們將流程的容量離線，他們傾向於更一致地運行流程控制。較早減少使用率較多的客戶回來的次數較多。我認為總體而言，根據里克的說法，總體來說相當平穩。

And DRAM has tightened a bit because of some of the AI drivers for that. But on the flash side, I think it's been fairly stable. And like I said, some improvement from folks who cut more aggressively early on.

由於人工智慧的一些驅動因素，DRAM 的供應有所收緊。但在閃存方面，我認為它相當穩定。正如我所說，早期更積極削減開支的人們取得了一些進步。

Our next question will come from Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Bren, you talked about strategic alternatives for the display business. Can you help us out how big the display business was last year? And then in general, on the EPC business, there are kind of auto is starting to (inaudible) mobility is getting better. Can you just talk about how you're looking at the EPC business, excluding display?

布倫（Bren），您談到了顯示器業務的策略替代方案。您能幫我們了解去年的顯示器業務有多大嗎？總的來說，在 EPC 業務上，有些汽車開始（聽不清楚）移動性變得更好。您能談談您如何看待除顯示之外的 EPC 業務嗎？

You're breaking up a little bit there, Atif. So in regards to the comments on display, it's about 1.5% of the revenue of the company. And there are parts of display they are more commodity based and there's aspects of that industry structurally where profitability is more challenged. And then there's some interesting parts of it, too, in terms of some of the future road map opportunities and where some of the higher-end customers are moving. So we will have more to say about that as we assess the alternatives we're considering.

阿蒂夫，你已經有點分手了。因此，就顯示的評論而言，大約占公司收入的1.5%。顯示器的某些部分更以商品為基礎，而該行業在結構上的某些方面的盈利能力面臨更大的挑戰。此外，還有一些有趣的部分，涉及未來路線圖的一些機會以及一些高端客戶的遷移方向。因此，在評估我們正在考慮的替代方案時，我們將對此有更多話要說。

The rest of EPC is kind of the tale of 2 businesses overall. The specialty semiconductor business has done exceptionally well as we talked about in the shareholder letter. Really outperforming WFE overall. I think it's a combination of customer engagement, more applications, new products. So we're really pleased with where we're performing there and the ability to differentiate. And I would expect that to be roughly flat and with some mix shift. It has some diversity in terms of end markets between automotive and mobile and advanced packaging.

EPC 的其餘部分總體上是兩個企業的故事。正如我們在股東信中談到的那樣，特種半導體業務表現異常出色。整體表現確實優於 WFE。我認為這是客戶參與、更多應用程式和新產品的結合。因此，我們對我們在那裡的表現和差異化能力感到非常滿意。我預計這一數字將大致持平，並有一些混合變化。它在汽車、行動和先進封裝之間的終端市場方面具有一定的多樣性。

So you could see a shift where automotive weakens, we'll see more investment on the advanced packaging side. So we're pretty positive on that. ICOS, we're already starting to see some improvement there, which tends to be a little bit of a leading indicator in terms of finished components. And so we're more optimistic about how that will translate back into the other parts of our business, given that that's a short lead time, more capacity-centric business. So again, back to our views of some improvement as we move into the second half.

因此，您可能會看到汽車行業疲軟的轉變，我們將看到先進封裝方面的更多投資。所以我們對此非常樂觀。 ICOS，我們已經開始看到一些改進，這往往是成品組件的領先指標。因此，我們對如何將其轉化為我們業務的其他部分更加樂觀，因為這是一個交貨時間短、更以產能為中心的業務。再次回到我們對下半年有所改善的看法。

PCB has been more mobile-centric in terms of in more consumer markets more capacity centric. So that business has been weaker, but I would expect it to be a little bit better this year as well. And there are some product offerings that we have coming that start to take advantage of opportunities at high-end PCB and substrates as those integrate into heterogenous packages. So we expect the APC business overall to be up, we'll call it, maybe high single digits, a little less lead time over there. So a little harder to forecast off of the year we had in 2023.

PCB 更以行動為中心，而在較消費的市場中，PCB 則更以容量為中心。因此，該業務一直較弱，但我預計今年也會好一點。我們即將推出的一些產品開始利用高階 PCB 和基板整合到異構封裝中的機會。因此，我們預計 APC 業務總體上會成長，我們稱之為，可能是高個位數，那裡的交貨時間會少一些。因此，預測 2023 年的情況有點困難。

Great. And then as my follow-up, Rick, you talked about uncertainty in leading edge with some push out. If your foundry customers decide to focus more in putting these investments of fabs in Japan versus U.S. Is there an impact to your business?

偉大的。然後，作為我的跟進者，里克，你談到了領先優勢的不確定性和一些推出。如果您的代工客戶決定更專注於日本而非美國的晶圓廠投資，這會對您的業務產生影響嗎？

Well, the work that they're doing in Japan is not at the leading edge, but it is part of their overall investment with the exception of the Japanese company that's investing there. So I would say, yes, of course, that's a different kind of business for us. It's important. But the leading edge business that's being done in the foundries isn't being done there right now with the exception of one. So we're talking about the -- what we're seeing and hearing is the development is going on for the leading-edge work. The question is, at what point will they be in a position to ramp that.

嗯，他們在日本所做的工作並不處於領先地位，但這是他們整體投資的一部分，除了在那裡投資的日本公司之外。所以我想說，是的，當然，這對我們來說是一種不同的業務。這一點很重要。但代工廠目前正在做的前沿業務除了一項之外目前還沒有在那裡完成。所以我們正在談論的是——我們所看到和聽到的是前沿工作的開發正在進行中。問題是，他們在什麼時候能夠實現這一目標。

So we -- the reason we're confident of the growth that's coming is because of the engagements we had, the design starts that we see and the plans that we know that they've been discussing. So we feel pretty good about the setup as we go towards the end of the year and into next year.

所以我們——我們對即將到來的成長充滿信心的原因是因為我們的參與、我們看到的設計開始以及我們知道他們一直在討論的計劃。因此，隨著年底和明年的到來，我們對這項安排感覺非常好。

Our next question will come from Charles Shi with Needham.

我們的下一個問題將由查爾斯·史和李約瑟提出。

First off, I really just want to ask for some clarification about the service business expectation for calendar 2024. I think that you talked about higher forecasted growth in service. Is it higher than what you thought at the 12% to 14% this year? Or if you're just talking about higher growth than compared with your systems business? Just a quick clarification.

首先，我真的只是想要求澄清 2024 年的服務業務預期。我認為您談到了服務業的更高預測成長。今年12%到14%比你想的高嗎？或者，如果您只是談論比您的系統業務更高的成長？只是快速澄清一下。

Yes, more in line with the long-term target model of 12% to 14% and closer to the high end of the target range. And that's really being driven by, we talked about some of the improving utilization that we expect to see as we move through the year, which if you think about our customers, their businesses get better. They have more demand, they start to consume the capacity they have. They have sustainability in that. And then as their profitability improves, then they start to invest in new equipment. So we would expect to see that play through as we move through the year.

是的，更符合12%至14%的長期目標模型，更接近目標範圍的高端。這實際上是由我們談到的一些利用率的提高所推動的，我們預計在這一年中會看到利用率的提高，如果你考慮一下我們的客戶，他們的業務會變得更好。他們有更多的需求，他們開始消耗他們所擁有的能力。他們在這方面具有可持續性。然後，隨著獲利能力的提高，他們開始投資新設備。因此，我們希望在這一年中看到這一點。

But we also will start to benefit from the tools that we shipped in 2021 and 2022 as they move from warranty into contract. And so that should be a driver for service growth as we move into next year. So we'll be back in line with the overall target model in terms of how we're planning for the business next year. The great thing about service is this growth that happens pretty continuously. It does have a little bit of a dilutive effect on our overall margins, which is one of the factors in the '24 gross margin color that I provided. So even if we would expect to see revenue increase a bit, I do think that you'll see a little bit of pressure on margins.

但隨著我們在 2021 年和 2022 年發貨的工具從保固期轉為合約期，我們也將開始受益。因此，隨著我們進入明年，這應該成為服務成長的驅動力。因此，就明年的業務規劃而言，我們將重新與整體目標模型保持一致。服務的偉大之處在於這種增長是持續不斷的。它確實對我們的整體利潤率產生了一點稀釋作用，這是我提供的 24 年毛利率顏色的因素之一。因此，即使我們預計收入會略有增加，我確實認為利潤率會受到一些壓力。

Now it tends to be based on the way we do the accounting accretive to operating margin. So it's -- at that level, it's pretty positive, but it does have an effect on the puts and takes within gross margin.

現在它往往是基於我們增加營業利潤的會計方式。因此，在這個水平上，這是相當積極的，但它確實對毛利率內的看跌期權和看跌期權產生影響。

Maybe another question, maybe a little bit longer term. I think in the past, you talked about particularly some of your leading-edge customers reusing their capacity in the past and may put a little bit pressure a few cycles ago on your overall growth. Your largest customer, I think, last week, talked about maybe converting some of the 5-nanometer to 3-nanometer. We don't know whether they're going to continue to do that. But any thoughts there and looking a little bit ahead, do you expect any sort of negative impact going forward?

也許是另一個問題，也許是一個更長遠的問題。我認為在過去，您特別談到了一些領先的客戶在過去重用了他們的產能，這可能會對您的整體成長在幾個週期前施加一些壓力。我想，你們最大的客戶上週談到可能將部分 5 奈米轉換為 3 奈米。我們不知道他們是否會繼續這樣做。但有什麼想法並展望未來，您預計未來會產生任何負面影響嗎？

The -- you're right. I mean historically, customers have always tried to reuse whatever they could. There's a couple of factors that impacted going forward. One is the technology that they're going to need for [3] and then for [2] is upgraded from what they have at [5].

你是對的。我的意思是，從歷史上看，客戶總是試圖重複利用他們所能利用的一切。有幾個因素影響了未來的發展。一是他們 [3] 和 [2] 所需的技術是從 [5] 所擁有的技術升級而來的。

And the second one is they still have volume at 5. So the question will be -- historically, when this was the most pronounced was when there was a great fall off in an existing node going to a new node. So in our conversations with them and our modeling of it, we see it pretty consistent from what we've seen in the last few years, not as high as the reuse was several years ago.

第二個是它們的交易量仍然為 5。所以問題是——從歷史上看，這種情況最明顯的時候是現有節點轉向新節點時大幅下降。因此，在我們與他們的對話以及我們的建模中，我們發現它與過去幾年的情況非常一致，而不是像幾年前那樣高。

But that factor drives us to continuously provide more capability in the tool to give them incentive to go to the new technology or to upgrade the existing. So there's nothing specifically new about this upcoming next generation of new technology, but it is definitely something customers are always trying to optimize their footprint.

但這個因素促使我們持續提供更多的工具功能，激勵他們採用新技術或升級現有技術。因此，即將到來的下一代新技術並沒有什麼特別的新內容，但它絕對是客戶一直在努力優化其足跡的東西。

Our next question will come from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的提摩西·阿庫裡。

Bren, I wanted to ask about book-to-bill. So it's below 1 for the fifth quarter in a row. It's up a little bit. It's up to like 0.9. So you're reaching some sort of like steady state. But it's a much different dynamic of what's sitting in RPO than what used to sit in backlog because you used to have 4 to 5 months worth of backlog.

布倫，我想問關於訂單到帳單的問題。所以它已經連續第五個季度低於 1。漲了一點點最高可達0.9。所以你正在達到某種穩定狀態。但 RPO 中的內容與過去積壓的動態有很大不同，因為您過去有 4 到 5 個月的積壓。

And now if you assume half of the stuff is parked outside of 12 months and half is inside of 12 months, I mean it's not, I guess, that different than it was before, but you still have this $5 billion plus it's parked beyond 12 months and that was never there before. So as we look pre-COVID and post-COVID, what changed? Why is there this $5 billion worth of bookings or RPOs just parked beyond 12 months? Because it isn't like your lead times have gone out that far. And I understand that with those long lead times, but it has always been long lead times. So what's kind of changed for you?

現在，如果你假設一半的東西停在12 個月之外，一半停在12 個月之內，我的意思是，我想，這與以前沒有什麼不同，但你仍然有這50 億美元，而且它的停放時間超過了12 個月幾個月，這是以前從未有過的。那麼，當我們回顧新冠疫情之前和之後的情況時，發生了什麼變化？為什麼價值 50 億美元的預訂或 RPO 僅僅停留了 12 個月以上？因為你的交貨時間並沒有那麼遠。我知道交貨時間很長，但交貨時間一直很長。那麼對你來說有什麼改變呢？

Yes. I think the easiest way to think about that part of it is it's related to customers giving orders that are tied to facilities that they're planning greenfield projects. And so the schedules are driving the orders. And so it's one of those where it is a lead time centric. It's -- the customer has a project that's going to open in '25, they want their tools when they have that scheduled planned opening. And so they've given us orders. In a lot of cases, you have some China business where you've given us orders and deposits that are tied to those schedules. So that's the biggest factor in the piece that's out.

是的。我認為考慮這部分的最簡單方法是，它與客戶發出的訂單有關，這些訂單與他們正在規劃的新建項目的設施相關。因此，時間表正在推動訂單的成長。因此，它是以交付週期為中心的產品之一。客戶有一個專案將於 25 年開放，他們希望在計劃開放時獲得工具。所以他們給了我們命令。在很多情況下，您在中國有一些業務，您向我們提供了與這些時間表相關的訂單和存款。所以這是這部作品中最大的因素。

And you're right, it is a bit of a new phenomenon. I think that we started to see after the massive ramp that we saw from '19 to '22 or so. So -- and each quarter, it's been pretty consistent, and we've been [cleaning] up a certain amount of that backlog every quarter, but it's been pretty consistent and it's been roughly 50% or so. So in the quarter we just completed, if you notice, if you look at the balance sheet, you'll see the deferred systems revenue is actually a little bit higher, and that's related to the dynamic I talked about earlier, where shipments were higher than revenue levels. And that drove down the RPO, but the book-to-bill relative to the revenue was actually positive.

你是對的，這是一種新現象。我認為我們開始看到從 19 年到 22 年左右的巨大增長。所以，每季都非常穩定，我們每季都會[清理]一定數量的積壓，但情況非常穩定，大約是 50% 左右。因此，在我們剛剛完成的季度中，如果你注意到，如果你查看資產負債表，你會發現遞延系統收入實際上有點高，這與我之前談到的動態有關，其中出貨量更高高於收入水平。這導致了 RPO 下降，但相對於收入的訂單出貨比實際上是正值。

So -- but I don't think that changes the nature of your question in terms of the trend line. It was a little bit better, more -- it's kind of consistent with what we thought and a little bit positive in the December quarter.

所以，但我認為這不會改變你的問題在趨勢線方面的本質。這是更好一點，更多——這與我們的想法一致，並且在 12 月季度有點積極。

Yes. Yes. I mean it was up, definitely. But I guess just my follow-up on that is what's the advantage? If I'm that customer and if your lead times are well inside of that, what's the advantage if I'm a Chinese customer to booking something that's kind of sit in your backlog it's -- but parked beyond 12 months? I mean, unless I'm worried about export control and maybe, I think, because I have something I've given you a down payment that entitles me to get the tool, like is that part of it? I still don't know why I would park something like way, way beyond your lead times?

是的。是的。我的意思是，絕對是這樣。但我想我的後續行動有什麼好處？如果我是那個客戶，而您的交貨時間正好在這個範圍內，那麼如果我是中國客戶，預訂一些積壓在您的訂單中但停留時間超過 12 個月的產品有什麼優勢？我的意思是，除非我擔心出口管制，也許，我想，因為我已經給了你一筆預付款，使我有權獲得該工具，就像這是其中的一部分嗎？我仍然不知道為什麼我要把東西停放得遠遠超出你們的交貨時間？

Well, if you're a new customer and you have new relationships with us, the demonstration of credibility in terms of, hey, we want this, we want to engage. We want you to put resources in place to support the fab and that takes some time to do so. And then in a lot of cases, that also comes with deposits for a portion of the orders.

好吧，如果您是新客戶並且與我們建立了新的關係，那麼您可以證明信譽，嘿，我們想要這個，我們想要參與。我們希望您投入資源來支援晶圓廠，但這需要一些時間。在很多情況下，這還伴隨著部分訂單的押金。

So I think it comes down to you're one -- if you're one of those customers who want to ensure that when your fab opens, that this isn't a bottleneck or an obstacle to your ramp in your plant. So -- and in a lot of cases, if they're newer customers to us, these aren't our -- I wouldn't say that the customers you know are booking orders that far in advance. But there are certain customers that want to make sure that we're prepared to support their plans. And so they give us orders to ensure that they're credible on those plans.

因此，我認為這取決於您——如果您是那些希望確保當您的晶圓廠開業時，這不會成為您工廠產能的瓶頸或障礙的客戶之一。因此，在許多情況下，如果他們是我們的新客戶，那麼這些客戶就不是我們的，我不會說您認識的客戶提前那麼久就預訂了訂單。但有些客戶希望確保我們準備好支持他們的計畫。因此他們向我們發出命令，以確保他們的計劃是可信的。

Well, that's a ton of customers that we actually never heard of before.

嗯，有很多我們以前從未聽說過的客戶。

Our next question will come from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I have 2 as well. The first one is on high NA. There seems to be a bit of a disconnect among some of your customers in terms of, I guess, their appetite to take tools and to develop using those tools. Curious, how you're thinking about your potential insertion of high NA over the medium to long term? And how should we think about the positive impact to your business from an intensity standpoint?

我也有2個。第一個是高數值孔徑。我猜想，您的一些客戶對於使用工具以及使用這些工具進行開發的興趣似乎有些脫節。好奇，您如何考慮在中長期內插入高數值孔徑的可能性？我們應該如何從強度的角度考慮對您業務的正面影響？

Our views haven't really changed in terms of the timing for high NA. We're encouraged to see the shipments of the tools that were well publicized. And I think that's great. It is going to take a while of course, as with any new technology to get those up and into production. So really haven't changed in terms of our view of when that turns into pilot and then when it turns to the high volume. But one thing that's clear is the increased adoption of NA -- of EUV is good for KLA and the broadening of it, as we see it being more applicable in memory also creates more opportunities, not only just in the reticle space, but because we're now dealing with -- the deep activity challenges are greater as they start printing smaller features.

我們對高 NA 時機的看法並沒有真正改變。看到廣為人知的工具的出貨量，我們感到很鼓舞。我認為這很棒。當然，與任何新技術一樣，將這些技術投入生產還需要一段時間。因此，我們對何時轉變為試點以及何時轉變為高容量的看法確實沒有改變。但有一點是明確的，NA - EUV 的採用增加對 KLA 及其擴展是有利的，因為我們看到它更適用於記憶體也創造了​​更多機會，不僅是在光罩空間，而且因為我們他們現在正在應對——當他們開始列印更小的特徵時，深度活動的挑戰就更大了。

It drives both the number and intensity of the tools that we need but also how they're run. So you need to run, for example, a BBP tool at a higher sensitivity, which, as you know, requires -- we keep adding capability, but it does require more capacity to cover the same amount of silicon to support that. So it's a very good transfer for Process Control and one that we're encouraged by. But from our standpoint, no change, which I guess is really good news because if we look back at EUV, it did delay several times. High NA seems to be on track with the schedule that has been out there for some time now.

它不僅決定了我們所需工具的數量和強度，還決定了它們的運作方式。因此，您需要以更高的靈敏度運行 BBP 工具，正如您所知，這需要我們不斷增加功能，但它確實需要更多的容量來覆蓋相同數量的矽來支援這一點。因此，這對於過程控制來說是一次非常好的轉移，我們對此感到鼓舞。但從我們的角度來看，沒有變化，我想這確實是個好消息，因為如果我們回顧 EUV，它確實延遲了好幾次。 High NA 似乎正在按照已經制定了一段時間的時間表進行。

That's very helpful. And then as my follow-up, maybe one for Bren. Just on the display business, so it's 1.5% of revenue last year. I'm curious if you could speak to the profitability of that business. I mean, to the extent you do end up, say, selling the business, how should we think about accretion to gross margins and bottom line earnings?

這非常有幫助。然後作為我的後續行動，也許是布倫的。僅就顯示器業務而言，佔去年收入的 1.5%。我很好奇您能否談談該業務的盈利能力。我的意思是，如果你最終確實出售了業務，我們應該如何考慮毛利率和底線收益的增加？

Yes, profitability is less than 1.5 -- 1.5% of KLA. So it's 1.5% of revenue, the profitability is less than 1.5% of KLA's profitability.

是的，獲利能力低於 KLA 的 1.5 - 1.5%。所以它佔收入的1.5%，獲利能力低於KLA獲利能力的1.5%。

(Operator Instructions) And we have no further questions in the queue. So I'll turn the floor back over to Kevin Kessel for any additional or closing remarks.

（操作員說明）佇列中沒有其他問題了。因此，我將把發言權交還給凱文·凱塞爾，讓他發表補充或結束語。

Thank you, Chelsea, and thank you again, everyone, for your time. We know it's a busy day of earnings a busy week. We appreciate it. We'll be in touch with sure all of you over the coming days and weeks. And with that, back to you, Chelsea, to provide any final instructions.

謝謝切爾西，再次感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間。我們知道這是忙碌的一天，也是忙碌的一週。我們很感激。在接下來的幾天和幾週內，我們肯定會與大家聯繫。就這樣，切爾西，請您提供最後的指示。

This concludes the KLA Corporation December Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

KLA Corporation 2023 年 12 月季度收益電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。