福特汽車 (F) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. My name is Leila, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好。我叫萊拉，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻，我謹代表福特汽車公司歡迎各位參加2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Chief Investor Relations Officer.

此時，我想把電話交給首席投資者關係長林恩安提帕斯泰森。

Thank you, Leila, and welcome to the Ford Motor Company's third quarter 2025 earnings call. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; Sherry House, CFO; Andrew Frick, President, Ford Blue and Model e; and Kumar Galhotra, Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝萊拉，歡迎參加福特汽車公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天陪同我的有：總裁兼執行長 Jim Farley；財務長 Sherry House；福特藍圖和 Model e 總裁 Andrew Frick；以及營運長 Kumar Galhotra。

Joining us for Q&A will be Cathy O'Callaghan, CEO of Ford Credit; and Steve Croley, Chief Policy Officer and General Counsel. Also with us is Alicia Boler Davis, President of Ford Pro. Jim will give a high-level overview, followed by Kumar on industrial progress, Andrew on market dynamics and Sherry on our financial review and guidance. We'll be referencing non-GAAP measures today. These are reconciled to the most comparable US GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck at shareholder.ford.com. Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ. The most significant risk factors are included on Page 20 of our deck. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis.

屆時將有福特信貸執行長 Cathy O'Callaghan 和首席政策長兼總法律顧問 Steve Croley 出席問答環節。同時在場的還有福特專業服務公司總裁艾莉西亞·博勒·戴維斯。Jim 將作高屋建瓴的概述，隨後 Kumar 將介紹工業進展，Andrew 將介紹市場動態，Sherry 將介紹我們的財務回顧和指導。今天我們將參考非GAAP指標。這些指標已在我們的獲利報告附錄中與最可比較的美國通用會計準則指標進行了核對。您可以在shareholder.ford.com網站上找到相關資料。我們的討論也包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能有所不同。最重要的風險因素列在我們的簡報第 20 頁。除非另有說明，所有比較均為同比比較。公司息稅前利潤、每股盈餘和自由現金流量均為調整後數據。

Upcoming IR engagements include Andrew Frick at the Scotiabank Conference in Toronto on November 18 and Sherry House at the Barclays Conference in New York on November 19.

即將舉行的投資者關係活動包括：11 月 18 日在多倫多舉行的豐業銀行會議上 Andrew Frick 的演講，以及 11 月 19 日在紐約舉行的巴克萊銀行會議上 Sherry House 的演講。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jim.

現在我想把電話交給吉姆。

Thanks, Lynn. Before I get started on earnings, I wanted to welcome Alicia Boler Davis to our team and to all of you. Her leadership is critical as we build our incredible powerhouse, Ford Pro into a durable product software services powerhouse.

謝謝你，琳恩。在開始談論收益之前，我想歡迎 Alicia Boler Davis 加入我們的團隊，也歡迎大家加入。她的領導對於我們將強大的 Ford Pro 打造成持久的產品軟體服務巨頭至關重要。

Alicia will cover Pro starting on our fourth quarter earnings call. I'd like to thank the Ford team as well as our suppliers and all of our dealers for delivering a very strong quarter. We not only solidly beat expectations, but our underlying performance has us on track to raise our full year 2025 EBIT guidance if it weren't for the impact of the Novelis fire in Oswego, New York. Sherry will provide details of the financial impact of the Novelis fire, and I'm very pleased with our team's swift and decisive response to this challenge. We immediately mobilized a dedicated crisis team worked around the clock with Novelis to secure alternative aluminum sources for our operational lines and accelerate the plant's recovery. Several top leaders and I personally visited the site to support all of these efforts.

艾莉西亞將在我們第四季財報電話會議上開始介紹Pro系列產品。我要感謝福特團隊、我們的供應商以及所有經銷商，感謝他們共同努力，使本季業績非常強勁。我們不僅遠遠超出了預期，而且如果不是因為紐約州奧斯威戈的諾維利斯火災的影響，我們的基本面表現使我們有望提高 2025 年全年息稅前利潤預期。Sherry 將詳細介紹 Novelis 火災造成的財務影響，我對我們團隊迅速果斷地應對這項挑戰感到非常滿意。我們立即組建了一支專門的危機應變小組，並與諾維利斯公司日以繼夜地工作，以確保我們的生產線獲得替代鋁源，並加快工廠的恢復。我和幾位高層領導親自前往現場，以支持所有這些努力。

In addition, we are adding up to 1,000 new jobs to increase F-Series production to recover lost volume and fulfill strong customer demand. We have made substantial progress in a very short time frame in both reducing the 2025 impact and putting in place an exciting recovery plan for next year. Turning to our results. Our Ford+ plan delivered a record $50.5 billion in revenue and $2.6 billion in adjusted EBIT. Once again, we made meaningful progress in cost and quality, thanks to the disciplined execution of our industrial team. Kumar will share more details.

此外，我們還將新增多達 1000 個工作崗位，以提高 F 系列的產量，彌補損失的銷量，滿足客戶的強勁需求。我們在很短的時間內取得了實質進展，既減少了 2025 年的影響，也制定了令人振奮的明年復甦計畫。接下來來看看我們的結果。我們的 Ford+ 計畫實現了創紀錄的 505 億美元收入和 26 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤。再次，由於我們工業團隊的嚴謹執行，我們在成本和品質方面取得了顯著進步。庫馬爾將分享更多細節。

I'd like to thank President Trump and his team for the recent tariff policy developments, which are favorable to Ford as the most American auto manufacturer. Credit based on our large US manufacturing volume will allow us to offset tariffs on imported auto parts we need for our strong American production and manufacturing base. In addition, tariffs leveling the playing field for those imported medium and heavy-duty trucks is a positive for Ford because we are no longer disadvantaged for building every single one of our Super Duties here in the United States. We also continue to watch for relief from tailpipe emissions, which may come as soon as the end of this year. Federal legislation has already scaled back California ZEV rules, and we anticipate a meaningful reduction in federal requirements next year. We are adjusting our product mix accordingly.

我要感謝川普總統及其團隊最近出台的關稅政策，這些政策對福特這家最具美國特色的汽車製造商非常有利。基於我們龐大的美國製造業規模的信貸將使我們能夠抵消進口汽車零件的關稅，而這些零件正是我們強大的美國生產製造基地所必需的。此外，關稅為進口中型和重型卡車創造了公平的競爭環境，這對福特來說是一件好事，因為我們不再因為在美國本土生產每一輛Super Duty卡車而處於劣勢。我們也會繼續關注廢氣排放限制措施的緩解，這項措施最快可能在今年底就能出台。聯邦立法已經縮減了加州零排放車輛的規定，我們預計明年聯邦要求將大幅減少。我們正在據此調整產品組合。

Our Ford+ plan is designed to win in the market among 4 key trends. Markets are more regional now. We all need tailored strategies. Customers are more fragmented between retail and commercial. This requires unique services and digital solutions for both. The competition is getting tougher, namely the Chinese OEMs are expanding globally. And the industry faces lower returns due to the EV overcapacity and global pressures. Thankfully, our strategy plays to our strengths at Ford, iconic work vehicles, passion products like Mustang and the off-road franchises like Bronco and Raptor. We're also prioritizing hybrids across our lineup, including the development of extended range hybrid options.

我們的 Ford+ 計劃旨在圍繞 4 個關鍵趨勢贏得市場。市場現在更具區域性。我們都需要量身訂製的策略。零售和商業客戶群更加分散。這需要為兩者提供獨特的服務和數位化解決方案。競爭日趨激烈，尤其是中國汽車製造商正在向全球擴張。由於電動車產能過剩和全球壓力，該產業面臨收益下降的困境。值得慶幸的是，我們的策略發揮了福特的優勢，包括標誌性的工作用車、Mustang 等熱情產品以及 Bronco 和 Raptor 等越野車系列。我們也優先發展全系混合動力車型，包括開發增程型混合動力車型。

In the near term, I believe EV adoption will now only be about 5% of the US market, but this is going to grow, especially for affordable EV vehicles. We are well positioned for this with the universal EV platform, which underpins digitally advanced, very spacious and appealing products that start at around $30,000. This is not a distant plan. It's right around the corner for us at Ford. Sourcing is at 95% complete now. We are testing vehicles. We'll begin installing equipment in Louisville for the UEV later this year, and we are on track to start production of our LFP cells at Marshall, Michigan plant later this year. To compete, we need innovation and hyper cost efficiency. In this capital-intensive environment, smart partnerships will be essential to us. And our largest near-term opportunity is closing that cost gap and achieving world-class quality. Kumar?

短期內，我認為電動車在美國市場的普及率目前僅佔 5% 左右，但這一比例將會成長，尤其是價格適中的電動車。我們擁有通用電動車平台，這為我們提供了良好的發展前景。該平台支撐著數位化先進、空間寬敞且極具吸引力的產品，這些產品的起價約為 30,000 美元。這並非遙不可及的計劃。對福特來說，這一天即將到來。採購工作目前已完成95%。我們正在測試車輛。今年晚些時候，我們將在路易斯維爾開始安裝 UEV 設備，並且我們正按計劃於今年稍後在密西根州馬歇爾工廠開始生產 LFP 電池。為了保持競爭力，我們需要創新和超高的成本效益。在這種資本密集的環境下，明智的合作關係對我們至關重要。我們近期最大的機會是縮小成本差距，實現世界一流的品質。庫馬爾？

Thank you, Jim. Our industrial platform is delivering tangible progress in quality, cost and modernization. Improving quality is the single biggest driver to close our cost gap. Better quality lowers warranty expense and reduces recalls. Four key elements are essential for sustainable warranty cost reduction, seamless launch execution, minimal defects, greater reliability and durability and time. You need time to clear the car part of old issues. It all starts with a clean launch. A bad launch creates years of warranty and recall problems.

謝謝你，吉姆。我們的工業平台在品質、成本和現代化方面取得了實際進展。提高品質是縮小成本差距的最大驅動力。更高的品質可以降低保固費用並減少召回次數。實現可持續的保固成本降低、順利推出、減少缺陷、提高可靠性和耐用性以及縮短時間，需要四個關鍵要素。你需要時間來清理汽車零件中遺留的問題。一切都始於一次完美的發布。糟糕的產品發表會引發多年的保固和召回問題。

Over the past two years, we have radically improved our launch quality. We are on track for best-in-class performance across six nameplates with three more nameplates in the top quartile. This is based on JD Power Warranty Analytics Data. Also, Ford was the most awarded brand in JD Power 2025 US initial quality study. We're also catching defects earlier in the process through rigorous engineering reviews where leaders sign off to ensure accountability and fixes happen in real time. Our next focus is on long-term reliability and durability.

過去兩年，我們的產品上市品質得到了顯著提升。我們預計在六個車型系列中實現同類最佳表現，另有三個車型系列位列前四分之一。這是基於JD Power保固分析數據得出的結論。此外，福特在 JD Power 2025 年美國新車品質研究中榮獲最多獎項。我們也透過嚴格的工程評審，在流程早期發現缺陷，領導層簽署確認，以確保責任落實，並即時進行修復。我們接下來的重點是長期可靠性和耐用性。

We've identified the specific parts and systems needed to achieve industry-leading reliability. To get there, we've implemented a new powertrain testing regimen that is up to 7 times longer than before. It includes extreme use cases that help us find issues we previously only found years after the vehicle was in the field. Now it takes time for these improvements to improve our recall numbers as older models have to work their way out of the system. But we're already seeing our recall costs shift towards more aged vehicles. And since the peak recall period is in years 3 to 5, we expect a meaningful improvement soon.

我們已經確定了實現業界領先可靠性所需的具體部件和系統。為了實現這一目標，我們實施了一項新的動力系統測試方案，其時間比以前延長了 7 倍。它包含極端使用案例，幫助我們發現以前只有在車輛投入使用幾年後才發現的問題。現在，這些改進措施需要時間才能改善我們的召回數量，因為舊款車型需要逐步退出市場。但我們已經看到，召回成本正逐漸轉移到車齡較長的車輛上。由於回憶高峰期在第 3 至 5 年，我們預計很快就會有顯著改善。

On cost, we delivered another quarter of year-over-year improvement and are on track for a net $1 billion improvement this year, excluding the impact of tariffs. Lower material costs, freight and duty efficiency and lower warranty contributed to this. This is the result of a fundamental change in our team's operational DNA. We have dedicated work streams, reducing the cost of parts, optimizing repair times and transforming how we negotiate with our suppliers. We're also modernizing our facilities and IT to unlock the next level of efficiency. We are systemically deploying AI across the entire industrial system. For example, we have significantly improved CAD loading times to less than a minute. And we have added 900 AI-powered cameras across our plants to detect quality issues at the source and help us mitigate supply disruptions.

在成本方面，我們連續第二個季度實現了同比改善，並且今年預計淨改善 10 億美元（不包括關稅的影響）。材料成本降低、貨運和關稅效率提高以及保固期縮短都促成了這一結果。這是我們團隊營運理念發生根本性改變的結果。我們設立了專門的工作流程，降低零件成本，優化維修時間，並改變我們與供應商的談判方式。我們也正在對設施和IT進行現代化改造，以釋放更高水準的效率。我們正在整個工業系統中系統性地部署人工智慧。例如，我們已將 CAD 載入時間大幅縮短至不到一分鐘。我們在工廠內增設了 900 個人工智慧攝像頭，以便從源頭上偵測品質問題，幫助我們減少供應中斷。

Thank you. And now over to Andrew.

謝謝。現在請安德魯發言。

Thank you, Kumar. I will start with Ford Pro, which is thriving due to our diverse vehicle lineup, service parts penetration and growth in our integrated software and services. Our specialized dealer network is a significant competitive advantage that is difficult to replicate. Dealers recognize the importance of customer uptime, and they continue to invest, adding another 1,700 service bays and 500 mobile service fans over this past year. This makes Ford the largest mobile fleet in the US, providing a structural advantage and brand differentiation for both Pro and retail customers.

謝謝你，庫馬爾。我先從福特專業版說起，由於我們多樣化的車輛陣容、服務零件的普及以及整合軟體和服務的成長，福特專業版發展勢頭良好。我們專業的經銷商網路是一項難以複製的重大競爭優勢。經銷商們認識到客戶正常運行時間的重要性，並持續投資，在過去一年中新增了 1700 個維修工位和 500 個行動服務風扇。這使得福特成為美國最大的行動車隊，為專業客戶和零售客戶提供結構優勢和品牌差異化優勢。

We have intentionally diversified our revenue streams for more durable profits. For example, softness in government sales this year was offset by strength in small to medium businesses or SMB. Our channel mix is now well balanced across large corporations, SMBs and government and rental fleets. In software, Pro's paid subscriptions grew 8% to 818,000 subscribers, and we're also seeing growth in our ARPU and attach rates. This is producing a flywheel effect. For example, customers who subscribe to our fleet software have a service parts capture rate up to 20 points higher, which also helps us win sales from new competitors in multi-make fleets. There is upside to software via strategic partnerships.

我們有意實現了收入來源多元化，以獲得更持久的利潤。例如，今年政府銷售疲軟被中小企業銷售強勁所抵銷。目前，我們的通路組合在大公司、中小企業、政府機構和租賃車隊之間實現了良好的平衡。在軟體方面，Pro 的付費訂閱用戶成長了 8%，達到 818,000 名訂閱用戶，我們的 ARPU 和附加率也都在成長。這就產生了飛輪效應。例如，訂閱我們車隊軟體的客戶，其服務零件獲取率可提高 20 個百分點，這也有助於我們從多品牌車隊的新競爭對手那裡贏得銷售。透過策略合作，軟體產業可以獲得許多好處。

Our new partnership with ServiceTitan, the largest software provider to the trades is a notable example of this. We are embedding our real-time vehicle data directly into their workflow, combining the insights from Ford Pro's data services with ServiceTitan's Fleet Pro software for a real-time view of fleet vehicle data. Customers will be able to manage vehicle maintenance, streamline services and simplify repairs. Now in our home market, industry conditions were strong this quarter with a SAAR of $17 million in positive pricing. Our total U.S. share grew to 12.8% with growth outpacing the industry despite our phaseout of the edge, driven by key products like F-150, Bronco, Explore and Expedition. In fact, the all-new Expedition is red hot, gaining over 3 points of segment share with 75% of customers choosing high-end trims like Tremor. And we continue to lead the hybrid truck market with about 70% share.

我們與以產業為導向的最大軟體供應商 ServiceTitan 建立的新合作夥伴關係就是一個顯著的例子。我們將即時車輛數據直接嵌入到他們的工作流程中，將 Ford Pro 數據服務的洞察力與 ServiceTitan 的 Fleet Pro 軟體相結合，從而即時查看車隊車輛數據。客戶將能夠管理車輛保養、簡化服務和簡化維修流程。現在就我們本土市場而言，本季產業狀況強勁，SAAR 為 1,700 萬美元的正定價。儘管我們逐步淘汰了 Edge 車型，但憑藉 F-150、Bronco、Explore 和 Expedition 等關鍵產品的推動，我們在美國的總份額增長至 12.8%，增長速度超過了行業平均水平。事實上，全新 Expedition 非常火爆，市佔率成長超過 3 個百分點，其中 75% 的客戶選擇了 Tremor 等高端配置。我們在混合動力卡車市場繼續保持領先地位，市佔率約為 70%。

Lastly, our ample inventory does position us for a strong fourth quarter and helps to insulate our retail sales from the near-term impact of Novelis. We will end this year with leaner retail stock levels between 55 to 59 days supply, with gross stock down 11%. As we look at 2026, even with our net recovery, we forecast being down roughly another 6% to about 520,000 units of gross stock, a disciplined approach yet still leaving us headroom to look for more market opportunities.

最後，我們充足的庫存使我們有信心在第四季度取得強勁的業績，並有助於使我們的零售銷售免受諾維利斯短期影響。今年年底，零售庫存水準將有所下降，介於 55 至 59 天的供應量之間，總庫存下降 11%。展望 2026 年，即使我們實現了淨復甦，我們預測總庫存仍將下降約 6%，至約 52 萬單位。這是一種審慎的做法，但仍為我們尋找更多市場機會留出了空間。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Sherry.

現在我想把麥克風交給雪莉。

Thank you, Andrew. Ford continues to make great strides in our journey to build a higher growth, higher margin, more capital-efficient and durable business, and that progress is evident in our ongoing performance. In the third quarter, our strong product lineup drove global revenue growth of over 9%, roughly 1.5 times faster than our growth in wholesales. And we delivered adjusted EBIT of $2.6 billion, flat with the prior year despite absorbing a net tariff headwind of $700 million.

謝謝你，安德魯。福特在打造更高成長、更高利潤、更有效率利用資本且更持久的業務的旅程中不斷取得長足進步，而這一進步在我們持續的業績中也得到了體現。第三季度，我們強大的產品陣容推動全球營收成長超過 9%，比批發業務的成長速度快約 1.5 倍。儘管承受了 7 億美元的淨關稅不利影響，我們仍實現了 26 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，與去年持平。

The durability of our business is strengthening. Over the past three years, total company EBIT from software and physical services has grown by over 20%, and our revenue growth has diversified across regions, segments, channels and software and physical services. Furthermore, our industrial system has delivered on their commitment to consistently deliver cost improvements, excluding the impact of tariffs. Total company adjusted free cash flow was strong at $4.3 billion in the third quarter with $5.7 billion year-to-date. We ended the quarter with nearly $33 billion in cash and $54 billion in liquidity. Our balance sheet is a competitive advantage. We are disciplined in our capital allocation strategy, and we are focused on the areas driving expected profitable growth such as our UAV platform launching in 2027. We remain committed to our investment-grade rating and returning capital to shareholders.

我們業務的持久性正在增強。過去三年，公司軟體和實體服務的總息稅前利潤成長超過 20%，我們的營收成長已在各個地區、各個細分市場、各個通路以及軟體和實體服務領域多元化。此外，我們的工業體系已履行其承諾，並持續降低成本，不包括關稅的影響。該公司第三季調整後自由現金流總額強勁，達 43 億美元，年初至今已達 57 億美元。本季末，我們擁有近 330 億美元的現金和 540 億美元的流動資金。我們的資產負債表是一項競爭優勢。我們在資本配置策略上非常嚴謹，專注於推動預期獲利成長的領域，例如我們計劃於 2027 年推出的無人機平台。我們將繼續致力於維持投資等級信用評級，並向股東返還資本。

Today, we announced the declaration of our fourth quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share payable on December 1 to shareholders of record on November 7. Now turning to the segments. Ford Pro delivered another solid quarter. Revenue was $17.4 billion and EBIT was $2 billion with a robust double-digit margin. Revenue and volume grew by 11% and 9%, respectively. Growth in EBIT was driven by volume and continued improvement in warranty and material cost, partially offset by tariff impacts and pricing normalization in Europe and North America. Ford Model e delivered both revenue and volume growth, driven by new product introductions in Europe. EBIT losses increased due to lower net pricing and an increase in spending on our next-generation vehicles.

今天，我們宣布派發第四季常規股息，每股0.15美元，將於12月1日支付給11月7日登記在冊的股東。現在來看各個部分。Ford Pro 又迎來了一個穩健的季度。營收達 174 億美元，息稅前利潤達 20 億美元，利潤率維持強勁的兩位數成長。營收和銷售量分別成長了11%和9%。息稅前利潤的成長主要得益於銷售量以及保固和材料成本的持續改善，但部分被歐洲和北美關稅的影響和價格正常化所抵銷。福特Model e在歐洲推出新產品後，實現了營收和銷售的雙雙成長。由於淨定價下降以及在下一代汽車上的支出增加，息稅前利潤虧損增加。

Let me give you additional color on Model e. Year-to-date, Model e is at a $3.6 billion loss. Roughly $3 billion of this is from our first-generation products, Mach-E, Lightning, Puma, Explore and Capri. The balance is investment in our next-generation vehicles, including our UEB platform. The only practical way to improve the profitability of our Gen 1 vehicles is through one of the more of the following: pricing, new cost reductions and improved fixed cost leverage. Given current industry trends, it's clear scaling fixed costs is a challenge for most of the industry. You can see this in a multitude of recent program cancellations and charges globally. We've been proactive. Over two years ago, we reduced our planned battery capacity by 35%. And last year, we canceled our 3-row program, making room for additional commercial vehicle volume. Clearly, near-term US customer and market realities for EVs continue to evolve. We will have more to share about how we are adapting to these changes at a later date.

讓我再補充一些關於Model e的資訊。今年迄今為止，Model e已經虧損了36億美元。其中約 30 億美元來自我們的第一代產品，包括 Mach-E、Lightning、Puma、Explore 和 Capri。剩餘部分用於投資我們的下一代車輛，包括我們的 UEB 平台。提高第一代汽車獲利能力的唯一切實可行的方法是透過以下一項或多項措施：定價、新的成本削減和提高固定成本槓桿作用。鑑於目前的行業趨勢，很明顯，擴大固定成本規模對大多數行業來說都是一個挑戰。從近期全球範圍內的大量項目取消和收費案例中可以看出這一點。我們一直積極主動。兩年多前，我們將計畫的電池容量減少了 35%。去年，我們取消了三排座椅項目，為增加商用車產量騰出了空間。顯然，美國電動車的近期客戶和市場實際情況仍在不斷變化。稍後我們將詳細介紹我們如何適應這些變化。

Ford Blue achieved EBIT of $1.5 billion, with revenue growth exceeding the rate of wholesale unit growth, highlighting the strength of our diverse product lineup. Higher costs were driven by tariffs, which muted progress in warranty. Adverse exchange was also a headwind driven by a weaker US dollar against the euro and Thai baht. Ford Credit delivered over $600 million of EBT, up 16%, reflecting improved financing margin. Ford Credit also made a $350 million distribution. We continue to originate a high-quality book with US retail and lease FICO scores again exceeding 750 for the quarter. So let me turn to our 2025 outlook. Excluding Novelis, our underlying business continues to perform well. In fact, we are tracking at the high end of the adjusted EBIT guidance range we provided in February of between $7 billion and $8.5 billion. This original guidance was provided before tariffs, which we have fully absorbed.

Ford Blue 實現了 15 億美元的息稅前利潤，營收成長率超過了批發銷售成長率，凸顯了我們多元化產品陣容的實力。關稅推高了成本，阻礙了保固方面的進展。美元兌歐元和泰銖走軟，不利的匯率也成為不利因素。福特信貸公司實現稅前利潤超過 6 億美元，成長 16%，反映出融資利潤率的提高。福特信貸也進行了 3.5 億美元的分配。我們繼續推出高品質的圖書，美國零售和租賃客戶的 FICO 信用評分在本季再次超過 750 分。那麼，讓我們展望一下2025年。剔除諾貝麗斯（Novelis）後，我們的核心業務持續表現良好。事實上，我們目前的調整後息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 處於 2 月給出的 70 億美元至 85 億美元預期範圍的高端。這份原始指南是在關稅出台之前提供的，而我們已經完全消化了關稅的影響。

Additionally, adjusted free cash flow is trending better than the guidance we provided in July of between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion. Between 2025 and 2026, we expect Novelis to be a headwind of $1 billion or less. For 2025, we expect an adjusted EBIT headwind of $1.5 billion to $2 billion in the fourth quarter for Novelis, and we currently have line of sight to mitigate at least $1 billion in 2026, and we are working to improve the situation further. We also expect an adjusted free cash flow headwind of $2 billion to $3 billion in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind, the production disruptions result in an oversized short-term impact on our working capital, which will reverse next year.

此外，調整後的自由現金流趨勢比我們在 7 月給出的 35 億美元至 45 億美元的預期。2025 年至 2026 年間，我們預期 Novelis 帶來的不利影響將不超過 10 億美元。預計到 2025 年第四季度，Novelis 的調整後息稅前利潤將面臨 15 億至 20 億美元的不利影響，我們目前有希望在 2026 年減少至少 10 億美元，並且我們正在努力進一步改善這種情況。我們也預期第四季調整後的自由現金流將面臨 20 億至 30 億美元的不利影響。請注意，生產中斷會對我們的營運資金造成過大的短期影響，但這種情況明年將會逆轉。

Given the recent announcements by the administration, we now expect tariffs will be a $1 billion net headwind for 2025, down from $2 billion. This brings our updated adjusted EBIT guidance for 2025 to between $6 billion to $6.5 billion with adjusted free cash flow of between $2 billion and $3 billion. Our full year outlook also assumes US industry SAAR of about 16.8 million units, US industry pricing of about 0.5%, a net cost improvement of $1 billion, excluding the impact of tariffs; and lastly, capital expenditures of about $9 billion. Turning to 2026. While it's premature to give guidance, I want to share some puts and takes as you think about the industry and Ford.

鑑於政府最近的聲明，我們現在預計到 2025 年，關稅將帶來 10 億美元的淨不利影響，低於先前的 20 億美元。這使得我們更新後的 2025 年調整後 EBIT 預期在 60 億美元至 65 億美元之間，調整後的自由現金流在 20 億美元至 30 億美元之間。我們的全年展望也假設美國產業 SAAR 約為 1,680 萬台，美國產業定價約為 0.5%，淨成本改善 10 億美元（不包括關稅的影響）；最後，資本支出約為 90 億美元。展望2026年。雖然現在給出指導意見還為時過早，但我想分享一些關於產業和福特的看法。

First, we have line of sight to recover at least $1 billion related to Novelis. For tariffs, we expect a net full year impact similar to 2025. For compliance, the evolving global emissions landscape is expected to eliminate 2026 compliance headwinds, thereby unlocking opportunities to optimize our mix of ICE, hybrids and EVs and reduce reliance on credits. And for cost, we plan to deliver another $1 billion of cost improvements across our industrial system, which will be redeployed to strategic accretive ICE and hybrid cycle plan actions.

首先，我們有希望追回至少 10 億美元與諾維利斯公司相關的款項。對於關稅，我們預計全年淨影響與 2025 年類似。為了遵守規定，不斷變化的全球排放情況有望消除 2026 年的合規阻力，從而釋放出優化內燃機汽車、混合動力汽車和電動車組合的機會，並減少對碳信用的依賴。在成本方面，我們計劃在整個工業系統中實現另外 10 億美元的成本改進，這些資金將重新部署到具有戰略意義的增值型內燃機和混合動力循環計畫行動中。

Additionally, UAV platform spending will continue to increase as we ramp our Marshall LFP battery plant and change over to the Louisville assembly plant ahead of the 2027 launch. Before we go to Q&A, let me end with this. Our underlying business is strong. And importantly, we are starting to more consistently execute and deliver our Ford+ plan.

此外，隨著我們在馬歇爾的磷酸鋰電池工廠加大產能，並在 2027 年發布前過渡到路易斯維爾組裝廠，無人機平台支出將繼續增加。在進入問答環節之前，我想以這句話作為結尾。我們的基本面很強勁。更重要的是，我們開始更持續地執行和交付我們的福特+計劃。

I'll now turn the call over to the operator.

現在我將把電話轉接給接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Joseph Spak, UBS.

約瑟夫‧斯帕克，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, everyone. Maybe just a couple of points of clarification. I guess I want to understand why, as of now, you only think you could recover about $1 billion of the impact from Novelis. And then also just in some maybe breaking news, there was a journal article which said Novelis plans to have the plant back up by the end of the year. So is that sort of in line with your thinking and then considered in your outlook?

謝謝大家。或許還有幾點需要澄清。我想了解的是，為什麼截至目前，您認為只能從諾維利斯事件中挽回約 10 億美元的損失。另外，還有一些可能引起轟動的新聞，有一篇期刊文章稱，諾維利斯計劃在年底前恢復該工廠的運作。那麼，這是否符合你的想法，並納入你的觀點之中？

Yeah, Thanks, Joe. This is Kumar. Thanks for the question. And thank you for your very thoughtful paper on this earlier. Yes, that is in line with our communication with Novelis. The hot mill which is down now will be operational in late November, early December. It will then go through a quick ramp up through December. Between now and end of the year, we'll probably lose 90,000 to 100,000 units in fourth quarter. We announced today that we will add a third shift at Dearborn truck plant and higher line speed at Kentucky Truck. So through those actions, we expect to make up roughly 50,000 of those 100,000 units in 2026.

好的，謝謝，喬。我是庫馬爾。謝謝你的提問。感謝您先前就此主題撰寫的極具見地的文章。是的，這與我們和諾維利斯的溝通一致。目前停產的熱磨機將於11月下旬或12月初恢復運轉。隨後，到12月份將迅速成長。從現在到年底，我們第四季可能會損失 9 萬到 10 萬台的銷售量。我們今天宣布，我們將在迪爾伯恩卡車工廠增加第三個班次，並提高肯塔基卡車工廠的生產線速度。因此，透過這些措施，我們預計到 2026 年將完成這 10 萬個單位中的約 5 萬個單位。

I would just add, it's important to realize that the makeup capacity next year will largely depend on Ford's capacity makeup. If we have more availability of aluminum, the real lever for us is going to be our own upside. And we're working through that. This is still early days. We'll have a lot more to update through this quarter and into next year's guidance. But please understand that's not Novelis restriction.

我還要補充一點，要注意的是，明年產能的彌補將很大程度取決於福特的產能彌補情況。如果鋁的供應更加充足，我們真正的優勢將體現在我們自身的發展前景上。我們正在努力解決這個問題。現在下結論還為時過早。本季以及明年的業績展望中，我們將發布更多更新資訊。但請理解，這並非諾維利斯的限制。

Yeah. Thanks, Jim. All F-Series plants were already running 3 crew and Dearborn wasn't and now it will run 3 crew as well. So the factories are basically flat out.

是的。謝謝你，吉姆。所有 F 系列工廠都已實行 3 人工作制，而迪爾伯恩工廠之前沒有實行，現在也將實行 3 人工作制。所以工廠基本上都滿載運作了。

Okay. Maybe just one more, and I guess it's unfortunately, we keep on having to bring these things up. But maybe you could just update us on how you're viewing any potential disruption from Nexperia chip impact and what kind of supply you have or alternative supply and whether there's anything considered for that as well?

好的。或許就再來一個吧，但很遺憾，我們不得不一直提起這些事情。但您能否向我們介紹您如何看待 Nexperia 晶片可能帶來的任何潛在影響，以及您有哪些供應方案或替代供應方案，以及是否也考慮過其他方案？

We see this as a political issue. We're working with US and Chinese administrations. I was in DC yesterday actually, and this issue is top of mind for every official we met in the US government. They're very well aware of it, working to resolve it. These are fairly common parts, mature node semi components like diodes and transistors. We're maximizing our buy of these components. We got really good at doing that during the chip crisis. I think all the OEMs are doing the same thing. At the moment, the runout dates look very close to the date when we may see a resolution. It's an industry-wide issue. A quick breakthrough is really necessary to avoid fourth quarter production losses for the entire industry. That's all I'm willing to say at this point.

我們認為這是一個政治問題。我們正在與美國和中國政府部門合作。我昨天剛好在華盛頓特區，我們遇到的每一位美國政府官員都非常關注這個問題。他們非常清楚這個問題，並且正在努力解決。這些都是相當常見的零件，是成熟的半導體元件，例如二極體和電晶體。我們正在最大限度地採購這些零件。我們在晶片危機期間非常擅長做到這一點。我認為所有汽車製造商都在做同樣的事情。目前來看，截止日期似乎與我們可能看到解決方案的日期非常接近。這是一個行業普遍存在的問題。要避免整個產業第四季出現生產損失，迅速取得突破勢在必行。目前我只想說這些。

Yeah, I appreciate it, Jim. Thank you.

是的，謝謝你，吉姆。謝謝。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

丹·利維，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking the questions. Kumar or Jim, I wanted to actually just go to the topic of warranty. And thank you, Kumar, I think you unpacked some of it. But it looks like your warranty expense was better year-over-year. You're talking about $1 billion of better cost next year as well. And I'm wondering if you could just update us where we are on the path to breaking that cost curve on warranty. I know this is sort of the question that keeps on coming up, but we've heard about the improvements in the J.D. Power survey and the efforts you're taking. But when do we start to see this finally show up materially in the numbers?

您好，晚上好。感謝您回答這些問題。Kumar 或 Jim，我其實只想談談保固問題。謝謝你，庫馬爾，我覺得你解釋得很清楚。但看起來您的保固費用比前一年有所下降。你指的是明年還能省10億美元成本。我想請您告知我們，在降低保固成本方面，我們目前進展到什麼程度了。我知道這個問題經常被問到，但我們已經聽說了 J.D. Power 調查的改進以及你們正在採取的努力。但我們什麼時候才能在數據上真正看到這種變化呢？

Thanks for the question. Let me make 2 points. First, the warranty is obviously made up of coverage and FSA costs. FSA costs are not simply a function of number of units. For example, software, OTA repairs and other repairs like that are significantly cheaper. And as you mentioned, our initial quality has improved substantially. And the reduction in those coverage costs is expected to offset any potential increase in FSA. And I use the word potential increase intentionally because given the large car part, it is somewhat difficult to precisely forecast the FSA number and the FSA cost. But next year, we expect the total cost coverage plus FSAs to also go down.

謝謝你的提問。我想說明兩點。首先，保固顯然由保固範圍和 FSA 費用組成。FSA成本並非僅僅是單位數量的函數。例如，軟體維修、OTA 維修和其他類似維修都便宜得多。正如您所說，我們的初始產品品質已大幅提升。預計這些保險費用的減少將抵消 FSA 可能增加的任何費用。我特意使用了「潛在成長」這個詞，因為考慮到汽車零件的體積龐大，很難準確預測 FSA 的數量和 FSA 的成本。但明年，我們預計總費用覆蓋率加上彈性支出帳戶 (FSA) 也將下降。

And I also want to highlight our Q3 warranty costs were down year-over-year.

另外，我還想強調一下，我們第三季的保固成本也比去年同期下降了。

Correct.

正確的。

$450 million.

4.5億美元。

Yes. It was a big -- a really big achievement by the team, really seeing that coverages flow through one of the reasons why we were able to offset the tariffs.

是的。這是團隊取得的一項重大成就，真正體現了保險覆蓋範圍的擴大，這也是我們能夠抵銷關稅的原因之一。

Great. As a follow-up, I wanted to ask a question about industry competitive dynamics. And I know that the incremental 50,000 units of capacity is really just to make up for some of the lost volume from '25 here from the fire. But you're raising your capacity. We know that your other competitors in trucks are taking some capacity actions as well. What is your comfort that the industry price discipline that we've seen can be maintained even with this incremental capacity coming online?

偉大的。作為後續問題，我想問一個關於行業競爭動態的問題。我知道新增的 5 萬台產能其實只是為了彌補 2025 年火災造成的產能損失。但你正在提升自己的能力。我們知道，你們在卡車領域的其他競爭對手也在採取一些運力方面的措施。您認為即使新增產能上線，目前看到的產業價格紀律能否持續維持？

Yeah, Dan, it's Andrew.

是的，丹，我是安德魯。

Thank you for the question. As we look at the industry pricing this year, it's up about 0.5 point, and we expect that to remain strong. And when you look at the strength of some of the segmentation out there like full-size pickups, it also remains very strong within the industry itself. So we see strength as we move forward in those key segments, which are very important to us.

謝謝你的提問。今年產業定價上漲了約 0.5 個百分點，我們預計這一趨勢將保持強勁。當你觀察一些細分市場的強勁勢頭，例如全尺寸皮卡，你會發現它在行業內部也保持著非常強勁的勢頭。因此，我們看到，隨著我們在這些對我們非常重要的關鍵領域中不斷前進，我們的優勢也日益凸顯。

And the reason why we feel comfortable is when you look at the underlying segment drivers, fuel price, construction, they're very strong for those segments. And as well, our competitors and Ford have a relatively new lineup. We have a new Expedition Navigator. We have a very still new F-150. We are -- the Super Duty is basically still brand new, and we have hybrid lineup that others don't have. So I think it's a combination of our optimism about the freshness of our lineup as well as the underlying drivers of the segmentation.

我們之所以感到樂觀，是因為當你觀察各個細分市場的基本驅動因素，例如燃油價格和建築業時，你會發現這些細分市場都非常強勁。此外，我們的競爭對手和福特也擁有相對較新的產品陣容。我們新添置了一台探險導航儀。我們有一輛非常新的F-150。我們的Super Duty系列基本上還是全新的，而且我們擁有其他公司沒有的混合動力產品線。所以我認為這既源自於我們對產品陣容新鮮度的樂觀態度，也源自於市場區隔背後的驅動因素。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.

馬克‧德萊尼，高盛集團。

Yeah, good afternoon and thank you very much for taking the questions. I want to start on emissions. Jim, you mentioned last quarter that the new emissions rules could be a multibillion-dollar opportunity for Ford over a two-year period. And Sherry, you said today about the company having opportunities to optimize on mix for next year. So is that multibillion-dollar figure still the right metric for investors? And should investors think about that as being all additive to current EBIT? Or is some of this about avoiding future compliance costs that will no longer come into effect?

是的，下午好，非常感謝您回答這些問題。我想先從排放問題著手。吉姆，你在上個季度提到，新的排放法規可能在兩年內為福特帶來數十億美元的商機。雪莉，你今天提到公司有機會在明年優化產品組合。那麼，數十億美元的數字對投資者來說仍然是合適的衡量標準嗎？投資人是否應該認為這些都會對目前的息稅前利潤產生影響？或者，其中一些措施是為了避免未來不再適用的合規成本？

There's two -- thank you for your question. There's two principal drivers for investors for emissions in the US to think about. The first is a different regime, if it's confirmed in December, whenever it will be, will allow us to minimize the cost of credits that we would buy. We had those as optionality and we don't have to use them.

有兩個——謝謝你的提問。投資者在考慮美國排放量時，需要考慮兩個主要驅動因素。第一種方案是不同的製度，如果能在 12 月得到確認（無論何時確認），將使我們能夠最大限度地降低購買信貸的成本。這些功能是可選的，我們不必使用它們。

That's right.

這是正確的。

That's a really big advantage. The second one is the monetization of that is very much centered around mix, mix of powertrains, mix of series, mix of vehicles. So even if we have basically maxed out industrial manufacturing capacity, we still have lots of levers to sell what customers really want. And we'll put a finer point on all that in the year-end when we look at next year's guidance.

那可真是個巨大的優勢。第二點是其貨幣化，這很大程度上圍繞著混合展開，包括動力總成混合、系列混合和車輛混合。所以即使我們的工業生產能力基本上已經達到極限，我們仍然有很多方法可以銷售客戶真正想要的產品。我們將在年底展望明年業績時，對所有這些進行更詳細的闡述。

Anything to add, Sherry?

還有什麼要補充的嗎，雪莉？

Yeah. Just that we have purchase obligations about $2.5 billion, and we think a lot of that may go away with Q4. And we're already 40% lower from where we started the year with the purchase obligations because the ZEV-related credits went away. We had no obligation any longer to those contracts. So that's a big part of what is being reduced.

是的。只是我們有大約 25 億美元的採購義務，我們認為其中許多可能會在第四季消失。由於零排放車輛相關積分取消，我們的採購義務比年初減少了 40%。我們不再受那些合約的約束。所以，這是削減專案的重要組成部分。

Thank you. My other question was about better understanding what's happened with profits in the business this year, excluding tariffs and the aluminum issue. If I walk from the midpoint of the EBIT guidance given with the July call, I add in the $1 billion lower tariff headwind and then subtract the Novelis cost, you end up right at the midpoint of your new EBIT guidance for 2025. So it doesn't appear on the surface that the 3Q strength is continuing into 4Q and maybe there's some timing that's happening in 3Q and goes away. But maybe that's the wrong interpretation and really, you're tracking more to the high end of the outlook for the year. So any more color you can share around how to think about profit trends in the core business would be helpful.

謝謝。我的另一個問題是，在不考慮關稅和鋁問題的情況下，如何更好地了解今年公司的利潤情況。如果我從 7 月電話會議上給出的 EBIT 指引的中點出發，加上 10 億美元的關稅下調帶來的不利影響，再減去 Novelis 的成本，最終得到的就是 2025 年新的 EBIT 指導值的中點。所以表面上看，第三季度的強勁勢頭並沒有延續到第四季度，也許第三季度出現了一些特殊情況，然後就消失了。但也許這是錯誤的解讀，實際上，你的預測更接近今年預期結果的高端。所以，如果您能分享更多關於如何思考核心業務利潤趨勢的信息，那就太好了。

Yeah, So let me just start by saying our business has been performing exceptionally well. And as a result, we would have guided $8 billion plus. With that, you take out the Novelis EBIT impact of $1.5 billion to $2 billion, and that's how you get to the $6.5 billion. If you would have taken our prior guidance of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion and took out the $1.5 billion to $2 billion, we would have been guiding at 5% to 5.5%. So indeed, we do have progress in the business. It is partially because of the improvements in the tariffs, and that's going to be $1 billion. But before we even got to that, we've had material cost improvements. The credit business has been performing well and pricing and volume has also been strong.

是的，首先我想說的是，我們公司的業務表現一直非常出色。因此，我們原本可以指導投資超過 80 億美元。這樣一來，減去 Novelis 的 EBIT 影響 15 億至 20 億美元，就得到了 65 億美元。如果按照我們先前給出的 65 億至 75 億美元的預期，減去 15 億至 20 億美元，那麼我們的預期成長率為 5% 至 5.5%。所以，我們的業務確實取得了進展。部分原因是關稅政策的改善，這將帶來 10 億美元的收益。但在此之前，我們已經實現了材料成本的降低。信貸業務表現良好，定價和交易量也十分強勁。

Doug Karson with BofA.

道格卡森 (Doug Karson) 來自美國銀行。

For our next question, we'll go to Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank Research.

下一個問題，我們將連線德意志銀行研究部的餘生愛迪生。

Thanks. Yes.

謝謝。是的。

Yes. Thanks for taking the question. First one, I think you mentioned that looking at next year, the tariff impact should be similar. Can you just walk us through some of the assumptions around that? I would have thought some of maybe the changes in policy could help.

是的。感謝您回答這個問題。首先，我想您提到過，展望明年，關稅的影響應該會類似。能簡單介紹一下其中的一些假設嗎？我原以為一些政策上的改變或許會有所幫助。

Yeah, So the changes in policy, the proclamation that happened last Friday gave us $1 billion of benefit. And that's now allowing us to offset more of our parts tariffs expense. So that's going to be the primary improvement that we saw that was driving the $1 billion that I just talked about, leading to just a $1 billion net impact for this year and enabling us to have a similar impact on tariffs and costs for next year.

是的，政策的變化，也就是上週五發布的公告，為我們帶來了10億美元的收益。這樣一來，我們現在就能抵銷更多的零件關稅支出。所以，這就是我們看到的主要改進，它推動了我剛才提到的 10 億美元的成長，使今年的淨影響達到 10 億美元，並使我們能夠在明年對關稅和成本產生類似的影響。

So basically, what's going to be left is you're going to be left with the -- with auto parts tariffs that don't have offset steel and aluminum, in particular, and that's going to be both the tariffs of steel and aluminum as well as any of the pricing impacts that come through and then any of the vehicle import tariffs that are not offset by the U.S. content offset that we're allowed.

所以基本上，剩下的就是——特別是汽車零件關稅，其中鋼鐵和鋁沒有抵消措施，這既包括鋼鐵和鋁的關稅，也包括由此產生的任何價格影響，以及任何未被我們允許的美國含量抵消所抵消的車輛進口關稅。

And the time frame is different. This year was a partial year, next year is a full year.

而且時間跨度也不同。今年是部分學年，明年是完整學年。

That's right. But when you look at the impacts, we're expecting it to be very similar this year.

這是正確的。但從影響來看，我們預計今年的情況會非常相似。

Understood. And then just a follow-up on, I think, some of the comments you made about Model e investment. I guess how are we thinking about the Skunkworks efforts now? Obviously, you talked a lot about the emissions being a huge potential tailwind. But obviously, there's -- you spent all this effort on the next-gen EV platform. Are there -- just high level, are there kind of changes we're thinking about related to that? How does one kind of move forward?

明白了。然後，我想就您之前關於E型車投資的一些評論做個後續補充。我們現在是如何看待臭鼬工廠的研發工作的？顯然，你多次提到排放量可能是一個巨大的潛在利多因素。但很顯然，你們在下一代電動車平台上投入了這麼多精力。就高層次而言，我們是否正在考慮與此相關的某些改變？一個人該如何繼續前進？

Great question. The EV North America market we're seeing now in the fourth quarter of this year, I believe will be -- we believe will be very different in '27 through '35 when that vehicle is out in the market. And so 2 things to think about. First of all, the UEV was designed for two priorities: the lowest possible cost platform with multiple top hats in one facility and designed to really compete in the heart of what we believe is the new EV market in North America, which is affordable commuter vehicles. We expect adoption will increase over time and the market continue to evolve and maybe even regulations evolve. We think this product is literally at the center of the future of the EV market in the US.

問得好。我認為，我們現在看到的北美電動車市場在今年第四季將會——我們相信，當電動車在 2027 年至 2035 年上市時，將會與現在大不相同。所以有兩件事要考慮。首先，UEV 的設計有兩個優先事項：盡可能降低成本，在一個工廠內配備多個頂帽，並且旨在真正參與我們認為的北美新興電動車市場的核心競爭，即經濟實惠的通勤車輛市場。我們預計隨著時間的推移，市場將不斷發展，甚至監管法規也可能隨之改變，因此採用率將會提高。我們認為這款產品堪稱美國電動車市場未來發展的核心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

Ryan Brinkman，摩根大通。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Regarding Novelis impact, clearly, there's some shifting here of production and wholesales impacting the cadence of earnings and cash flows that matters to investors. Maybe with regard, though, to the impact on retail sales and the customer, what are you expecting there? It looks like at the end of September, you were fortunately sitting on an 88-day supply of F-Series more than GM at 70 days, full-size pickup segment average, I think it's 78 days. And of course, you operate with far less during the chip shortage. So how do you think about that impact or about managing that impact from a customer perspective?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。關於 Novelis 的影響，顯然，生產和批發方面的一些變化會影響到投資者關心的收益和現金流的節奏。不過，就對零售銷售和顧客的影響而言，您對此有何預期？看起來，截至九月底，你們的 F 系列庫存充足，足夠使用 88 天，比通用汽車的 70 天庫存多，而全尺寸皮卡細分市場的平均庫存量我認為是 78 天。當然，在晶片短缺的情況下，你的營運資源也會大大減少。那麼，從客戶的角度來看，您如何看待這種影響，或如何應對這種影響？

Yeah, I think, this is Andrew. Thanks for the question, Ryan. We believe we have enough stock to insulate us from the impact of Novelis in the fourth quarter given where we started the quarter. And that's why I wanted to make the comment on where we expect to end the quarter in the midpoint of our range just to give you confidence in how we're managing the Novelis impact.

是的，我想，這位是安德魯。謝謝你的提問，瑞恩。鑑於我們第四季度的開局情況，我們相信我們有足夠的庫存來抵禦Novelis在第四季度帶來的影響。因此，我想就我們預計本季末業績將達到預期範圍的中點發表一下看法，以增強大家對我們如何應對諾維利斯影響的信心。

Very helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

Doug Karson with BofA.

道格卡森 (Doug Karson) 來自美國銀行。

Hey guys, I'm not sure if you could hear me. We can, please go ahead. We can. Great, thanks so much for for taking my question.

嘿，各位，我不知道你們能不能聽我說話。可以，請繼續。我們可以。太好了，非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Ford and Ford Credit both have very strong balance sheets. It's a true asset, certainly for bondholders and I think equity alike. The leverage has been very low. The cash balance is very high. And in late September, Gordon Ford Credit rolled out what appeared to be a successful plan to offer subvented financing the F-150 to subprime customers, kind of providing them an opportunity to enjoy a lower loan rate kind of reserve for higher FICO scores, perhaps easing some affordability issues. So maybe you can kind of explore what opportunities you could maybe provide your customers through creative strategies around loans and rates given the strong balance sheet.

福特汽車和福特信貸的資產負債表都非常穩健。它是一項真正的資產，對於債券持有人來說尤其如此，我認為對於股票持有人來說也是如此。槓桿率一直很低。現金餘額非常高。9 月下旬，戈登福特信貸公司推出了一項看似成功的計劃，向次級客戶提供 F-150 的補貼融資，讓他們有機會享受較低的貸款利率，從而提高 FICO 信用評分，或許可以緩解一些購車負擔能力問題。所以，鑑於公司強勁的資產負債表，或許您可以探索一下，透過圍繞貸款和利率的創新策略，可以為客戶提供哪些機會。

Thank you for the question. Yes, we ran at the last few weeks of September, what we call a no tier upgrade marketing program, and it really was to generate news for the F-150. We haven't changed our purchasing policy or our risk appetite, but we're really focused on ensuring that we use these sort of incentives to structure deals for customers that they can afford their monthly payments on a sustainable basis. So I think this program this program proved to be very effective. Overall, it didn't change our average FICO scores. In fact, it went up. But these are sort of opportunities that we can look at on an ongoing basis.

謝謝你的提問。是的，我們在九月的最後幾週開展了一項我們稱之為「無等級升級行銷計劃」的活動，其目的確實是為了給 F-150 製造新聞。我們沒有改變採購政策或風險承受能力，但我們確實非常注重確保利用這些激勵措施為客戶建立交易，使他們能夠可持續地支付每月款項。所以我認為這個項目非常有效。整體而言，這並沒有改變我們的平均FICO信用評分。事實上，它上漲了。但這些都是我們可以持續關注的機會。

Just so I'm clear, I believe your subprime is a very small part of the overall book...

為了避免誤解，我認為你的次貸項目在整本書中所佔比例很小…

Very small. Yes, it's very small. In fact, our high-risk portfolio mix is just 3%, and it's been very sustainable at that 3% for quite some time now.

非常小。是的，它很小。事實上，我們的高風險投資組合佔比僅為 3%，而且這一比例已經維持了相當長一段時間。

Okay. I think that's comforting for people, but also maybe an opportunity to expand some loans to more subprime and potentially get more sales done wouldn't be a terrible thing also. So I appreciate the question and the answer. I appreciate it.

好的。我認為這對人們來說是一種安慰，但或許藉此機會擴大一些次級貸款的覆蓋範圍，從而有可能促成更多銷售，也並非壞事。我很感謝這個問題和答案。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks. We are concentrated on helping sell more products. So we're very open to new ideas.

是的。謝謝。我們專注於協助銷售更多產品。所以我們非常樂於接受新想法。

You must have some dealer friends.

你一定有一些經銷商朋友。

I wish.

我希望如此。

Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli，TD Cowen。

Great, thank you. Good evening, everyone. Just wanted to go back to the powertrain and segment mix opportunity next year, maybe trim mix as well with the compliance costs. To what extent would that optimization end up pushing up your ATPs? And if so, how confident are you, given some of the affordability constraints that you can kind of pass that mix optimization through to the consumer?

太好了，謝謝。各位晚上好。明年我想重新檢視動力系統和細分市場組合方面的機遇，或許還要考慮配置組合以及合規成本。這個最佳化能在多大程度上提高你的ATP值？如果是這樣，考慮到一些價格限制，你有多大信心能夠將這種組合最佳化傳遞給消費者？

It's Andrew. Thank you for the question. Well, our ATPs are really strong right now, as you know, and we are among the leaders and above segment average. But I think at the core of what it allows us to do is build the customer demand and give us the flexibility to manage our mix, as Jim mentioned earlier, on certain vehicles, especially as we look at some of our off-road derivatives like Tremor and Raptor, it gives us some headroom in that to actually manage the mix within selected vehicles.

是安德魯。謝謝你的提問。如您所知，我們目前的ATP（平均交易量）非常強勁，我們位居行業領先地位，高於行業平均水平。但我認為，它最核心的作用在於幫助我們建立客戶需求，並賦予我們靈活管理產品組合的能力。正如吉姆之前提到的，在某些車型上，尤其是在我們審視一些越野衍生車型（如 Tremor 和 Raptor）時，它為我們提供了一定的空間，讓我們能夠更好地管理特定車型的產品組合。

Terrific. That's helpful. And as a quick follow-up, maybe on the quarter, if you could talk through the drivers behind Blue's improved pricing, I think $400 million was better than what we did last quarter as well as any additional color on fleet pricing in the quarter? Thank you.

了不起。那很有幫助。最後，我想快速跟進一下，關於本季度，您能否談談 Blue 價格上漲背後的驅動因素？我認為 4 億美元的漲幅比我們上個季度好。另外，能否再補充一些關於本季車隊定價的資訊？謝謝。

Well, I think in general, as I mentioned earlier, the industry pricing is up 0.5 point. Retail is up more. It's very strong right now, up 1.7 points. It's driven by a lot of the tariff pricing through the year. If you look at the counterbalance of that fleet has been down a bit. It's primarily in the van business. And fortunately, for us in our portfolio and what plays to our strength, our Super Duty pricing and full-size pickup has remained very strong for us throughout the entire year.

嗯，我認為總體而言，正如我之前提到的，行業定價上漲了0.5個百分點。零售業漲幅更大。目前走勢非常強勁，上漲了1.7個百分點。這主要受全年關稅定價的影響。如果你觀察一下，你會發現這支艦隊的平衡能力下降。它主要從事貨車運輸業務。幸運的是，就我們的產品組合和我們的優勢而言，我們的 Super Duty 定價和全尺寸皮卡在整個年度都保持了非常強勁的勢頭。

And one of the great offsets that we've been able to manage this year with Ford Pro is not rely on the traditional fleet business. Andrew, maybe you want to talk about the changing mix of our Pro business.

今年，我們透過 Ford Pro 實現的一大優勢就是不依賴傳統的車隊業務。安德魯，或許你想談談我們專業業務組合的變化。

Yeah. We continue to increase our overall services as a percent of EBIT. Just a couple of years ago, we were around 13%, and we are now well on our way to hit our 20% total EBIT. Across the channels, we've also been able to diversify. We're roughly one-third of our channel mix now amongst large corporations, one-third with small, medium businesses and one-third with government and daily rental. So we are very well balanced, very diversified, both on the vehicle side and also with the services.

是的。我們持續提高服務業佔息稅前利潤的百分比。就在幾年前，我們的息稅前利潤率約為 13%，而現在我們正朝著 20% 的總息稅前利潤率穩步邁進。在各個通路方面，我們也實現了多元化發展。目前，我們的通路組合中，約有三分之一來自大型企業，三分之一來自中小企業，三分之一來自政府和日租屋市場。因此，我們在車輛和服務方面都實現了非常均衡、非常多元化的發展。

But our -- that strength in small, medium business, SMB, we call it, is really a key accomplishment by the team. We heavily focus on that group. We're continuing to try to grow that mix of that group, and that helps us a lot derisk any kind of pricing risk on the fleet.

但是，我們在中小企業（我們稱之為 SMB）方面的優勢，實際上是團隊的關鍵成就。我們非常關注這個群體。我們正在繼續努力擴大該群體的組成，這有助於我們大大降低船隊定價方面的任何風險。

Yes. We've been able to grow.

是的。我們得以發展壯大。

Tom Narayan, RBC Capital Markets.

Tom Narayan，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Thanks for taking.

謝謝取用。

The question. I just.

問題。我只是。

Just one quick clarification. So the net impact on tariffs on '25 $1 billion and the '26 to be similar, do you mean to say that the '26 net tariff, assuming everything we know now is also $1 billion?

還有一個小問題需要澄清。所以，2025 年關稅淨影響為 10 億美元，2026 年的淨影響也類似，你的意思是，假設我們現在所知道的一切，2026 年的淨關稅也是 10 億美元嗎？

Let me clarify. So for Q4 of this year, we expect an EBIT impact of $1.5 billion to $2 billion due to Novelis. And due to tariffs, we're expecting to see a positive in the Q4 because we are going to get the receivable for the $1 billion. So that's going to be a positive in Q4. I wasn't sure if you were originally talking about the Novelis because the numbers.

讓我解釋一下。因此，我們預計今年第四季度，由於Novelis的影響，息稅前利潤將受到15億美元至20億美元的影響。由於關稅的影響，我們預計第四季度業績將有所好轉，因為我們將收到10億美元的應收帳款。所以這對第四季來說是個利好消息。我不確定你最初是不是在談論諾維利斯，因為數字不一樣。

No, no, no. The tariffs because I remember in 2Q, it was like negative $800 million, 3Q, negative $700 million. So it's like a plus $500 million for Q4 to get to that $1 billion. I'm just understanding how to think about '26.

不，不，不。關稅方面，我記得第二季虧損了 8 億美元，第三季虧損了 7 億美元。所以，第四季還需要增加 5 億美元才能達到 10 億美元的目標。我還在學習如何看待「26」。

What's going to happen is you would have tariff costs, and it will be offset by this $1 billion that is retroactive that's coming in, in Q4. So to date, we're at like $1 and then you'll be able to take the $1 billion off, you'll encounter a little bit more next quarter, but you'll be positive for Q4.

接下來將會出現關稅成本，但第四季將有 10 億美元的追溯性資金來抵銷這些成本。所以到目前為止，我們的股價大概是 1 美元，然後你就可以扣除 10 億美元，下個季度你還會遇到一些問題，但第四季你會獲利。

Got it. And a quick follow-up. As you pivot, let's say, from EV to ICE, just understanding how that works. Clearly, there's stranded costs. We saw the EV losses worsened sequentially. I know some of that was investment. But how should we think about EV losses going forward like into next year as -- if volumes come down? I know some of the plants are flexible, some of them are dedicated, but how should we think about that?

知道了。還有一個後續問題。例如，當你從電動車轉向內燃機汽車時，了解其運作方式就非常重要。顯然，存在擱淺成本。我們看到電動車的虧損逐週惡化。我知道其中一部分是投資。但是，如果銷量下降，我們應該如何看待電動車未來的虧損，例如明年的情況？我知道有些植物適應性強，有些植物則很專一，但我們該如何看待這個問題呢？

We'll be excited to give you an update after the fourth quarter as we look into next year. Very big decisions for the company.

第四季結束後，我們將展望明年，並很高興地向大家提供最新進展。公司面臨的是非常重大的決定。

Got it. Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。

Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

Emmanuel Rosner，Wolfe Research。

Great. I wanted to ask you just a little bit more how to think about the mix optimization opportunity into next year as a result of some of these lower compliance hurdles. I think you mentioned the ability to maybe maximize some of the off-road offering, Raptor, et cetera. Is there a sense that those were supply constrained -- like you were constraining supply of those and that there's a large amount of like unmet demand in there? Like any sort of way to frame this in terms of how you had been managing the business before as a result of these compliance rules? And what -- essentially, what is the size of the opportunity here?

偉大的。我想再問您一點，鑑於這些合規門檻的降低，明年如何看待產品組合優化帶來的機會。我想你提到或許可以最大限度地發揮一些越野性能，例如猛禽等等。是否有人覺得這些產品供應受限——就像你在限制這些產品的供應，導致存在大量未滿足的需求？有沒有什麼方法可以把這件事和之前因為這些合規規則而導致的業務管理方式連結起來呢？那麼，從本質上講，這裡的機會究竟有多大？

Well, Emmanuel, it's Andrew again. Yes. So in -- when you're compliance constrained or under certain regulatory policy, we were having to restrain some of the mix because some of the off-road vehicles, like I mentioned before, Tremor and Raptor are actually very negative against compliance. So we would suppress some of the natural demand within that. So as we look at next year and our overall build mix, we'll obviously match that to customer demand. We don't want to overproduce against that, so we can remain disciplined. And we'll take a look vehicle by vehicle like we always do to maximize our mix within.

嗨，伊曼紐爾，我是安德魯。是的。所以，當受到合規性限製或某些監管政策約束時，我們不得不限制某些產品的組合，因為一些越野車，就像我之前提到的 Tremor 和 Raptor 一樣，實際上對合規性非常不利。因此，我們會抑制其中的一些自然需求。因此，展望明年以及我們的整體建設組合時，我們顯然會根據客戶需求進行調整。我們不想過度生產，這樣才能保持自律。我們將像往常一樣逐輛車進行檢查，以最大限度地提高我們的組合。

One of the big opportunities to complement what Andrew said on the series mix nameplate is the hybrid mix. And obviously, we can change the pricing in hybrid and change the demand curve for the vehicle. We've had to be very aggressive with hybrid pricing to make sure we cover the right mix. And that obviously is a big opportunity for us because F-150 is a huge volume vehicle for us and the hybrid F-150 is so popular, we have opportunity there to maximize the company's results.

安德魯在系列混音銘牌上所說的內容，一個重要的補充機會就是混合混音。顯然，我們可以改變混合動力車的定價，從而改變該車型的需求曲線。我們不得不採取非常積極的混合定價策略，以確保涵蓋合適的產品組合。這顯然對我們來說是一個巨大的機遇，因為 F-150 是我們銷量巨大的車型，而混合動力 F-150 又非常受歡迎，我們有機會最大限度地提高公司的業績。

The only other thing that I would add, I just want to make sure everybody understands is that with the EPA changes that are likely, that is removing a compliance headwind that would have been going into next year. And so it's just really important that everyone understands that we were facing a headwind. And so that's going to help to eliminate a year-over-year impact.

我唯一想補充的是，我想確保每個人都明白，隨著美國環保署政策的可能變化，這將消除原本會持續到明年的合規阻力。所以，讓大家明白我們當時面臨逆風，這點非常重要。這樣就能消除年比影響。

Great. And then just one additional question on guidance, comparing it to just the most recent one that you had provided last quarter. So if I basically take the current guidance adjusted for the Novelis fire, but also the $1 billion benefit from lower tariff outlook, it seems like it's essentially an unchanged guidance versus last quarter. And that's despite essentially assuming now, I guess, expecting now for the industry, better SAAR as well as better pricing. So are there at the same time, some industry or company factors that are playing out maybe a little bit less favorably than 3 months ago?

偉大的。最後還有一個關於業績指引的問題，想請您將其與上個季度提供的最新指引進行比較。因此，如果我基本上採用根據諾維利斯火災進行調整後的當前預期，再加上關稅前景降低帶來的 10 億美元收益，那麼與上個季度相比，預期基本上保持不變。儘管現在人們普遍認為，該行業將會迎來更好的銷售調整後年率 (SAAR) 和更好的定價，但情況依然如此。那麼與此同時，是否存在一些行業或公司因素，其發展可能比三個月前略微不利一些？

No, none to no. I mean, as I said, I mean, we were going to be $8 billion plus. When you take that $1.5 billion to $2 billion off, that gets you to the $6 billion to $6.5 billion, you add the $1 billion of tariffs. But we also are performing at the higher end of the guidance that we had put out there at the beginning of the year. And the reason for that is credit has been doing good, material costs have been doing good. The pricing and volume have been solid. And so that's why we were at the higher end of the guidance.

不，沒有。我的意思是，就像我說的，我們原本的預算會超過 80 億美元。減去這 15 億至 20 億美元後，剩下 60 億至 65 億美元，再加上 10 億美元的關稅。但我們目前的業績也達到了年初我們給出的預期目標的較高水準。原因在於信貸狀況良好，原料成本也表現良好。價格和銷量都保持穩定。所以這就是為什麼我們的預期收益處於指導值的較高水平。

I take it offline on the sell side call.

我把這事兒轉到賣方電話會議上，然後線下討論。

but I appreciate all the color.

但我很欣賞這些色彩。

Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

科林·蘭根，來自富國銀行。

Great, thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to follow up. I'm actually -- I guess I'm getting a little confused with some of the puts and takes. If I look at the midpoint of guidance, Q4 is like $550 million. I thought you just said that tariffs would be a refund of $1 billion. And then the Novelis -- so it just would imply almost like negative if it wasn't for the tariff refund. And then just even if I add Novelis, then it would still imply a pretty big drop underlying from Q3 at $2.6 billion to Q4. Am I misunderstanding the commentary there?

太好了，謝謝你回答我的問題。只是想跟進一下。實際上——我感覺我對一些買賣交易有點困惑。如果以業績指引的中點來看，第四季大約是 5.5 億美元。我記得你剛才說過關稅會退還10億美元。然後是諾維利斯——所以，如果不是因為關稅退款，這幾乎意味著負面結果。即使我把諾維利斯也算進去，那也意味著從第三季的 26 億美元到第四季度，基本面將會出現相當大的下滑。我是否誤解了那裡的評論？

We would have been at $8 billion plus -- you take out the Novelis impact in Q4. So that's going to be $1.5 billion to $2 billion, which gets you to the $6 billion to $6.5 billion for 2025. Now when I talk about makeup, that's in 2026. So that's where you get the $1 billion back in EBIT not in '25.

如果不計入Novelis在第四季的影響，我們的營收本來可以超過80億美元。所以這將達到 15 億至 20 億美元，這樣到 2025 年就達到了 60 億至 65 億美元。現在我談論化妝，指的是2026年。所以，這就是 2025 年無法收回 10 億美元 EBIT 的原因。

So I guess I'm just -- on the prior question, so year-to-date, you have like, what was it, $1.7 billion of tariff costs. The guide for the year is $1 billion. What -- how are we getting there for Q4? I thought that was the refund or maybe I misunderstood that, sorry.

所以我想我只是——關於上一個問題，今年到目前為止，你們的關稅成本是多少來著，17億美元？全年目標金額為10億美元。什麼？ ——我們如何在第四季實現目標？我以為那是退款，或許我理解錯了，抱歉。

Yes, that's right. So as of last Friday when the proclamation was signed, we now can apply a greater percentage of the MSRP tariff offset to our parts. And now that we can do that as of last Friday, we're going to get $1 billion of benefit. We couldn't record that in the Q3 numbers because our books were already closed and this just happened last Friday. So now you're going to see a receivable in Q4 that's more than going to offset what the tariff cost would be in Q4. And then when you add Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 together with that positive receivable, you'll reach $1 billion net for the full year.

是的，沒錯。因此，自上週五公告簽署之日起，我們現在可以將更大比例的建議零售價關稅抵扣應用於我們的零件。從上週五開始，我們就可以這樣做了，我們將獲得 10 億美元的收益。由於我們的帳目已經關閉，而且這件事就發生在上週五，所以我們無法將這筆款項計入第三季的財務資料中。所以，您將會在第四季看到應收帳款，這筆款項將足以抵銷第四季的關稅成本。然後，將第一季、第二季、第三季、第四季加上應收帳款，全年淨收入將達到 10 億美元。

Okay. Got it. And then just, I guess, a follow-up on your color on 2026. You highlighted cost is $1 billion positive, Novelis, it would be $1 billion help into next year. Any color? I think in the past, you've talked about around $600 million of sort of the regulatory costs just structurally going away as a tailwind. And did I catch the commentary on inventory, it will be actually down again next year. So we should kind of have a little bit of destocking factor that we should be thinking about, too?

好的。知道了。然後，我想就您2026年的流行色做個後續探討。您指出的成本為10億美元，Novelis，這將為明年帶來10億美元的幫助。任何顏色？我認為你過去曾談到，大約 6 億美元的監管成本會因為結構性因素而減少，這無疑是一個利好因素。我有沒有註意到有關庫存的評論？明年庫存實際上還會再次下降。所以，我們也應該考慮一下去庫存這個因素吧？

Well, Colin, there's a lot of texture we want to take you through as we position 2026 and beyond. And we're going to do that properly at Q4 earnings. And so for now, I just said we've got some tailwinds and headwinds that I wanted you to know, tariffs roughly the same, tailwinds make up Novelis, likely removal of the EPA compliance headwind, continued cost savings. But then the headwinds are going to be investments in our launches in Marshall and Louisville and investments in the cycle plan. So that's what we're able to share at this time, and we look forward to sharing more with you in our Q4 earnings.

科林，我們想帶你了解很多細節，以便更好地展望 2026 年及以後的發展。我們將在第四季財報中妥善處理此事。所以目前，我剛才說了，我們有一些順風和逆風，我想讓你們知道，關稅大致相同，順風包括Novelis，可能會取消EPA合規方面的逆風，以及持續的成本節約。但接下來我們將面臨一些阻力，例如在馬歇爾和路易斯維爾的投資以及週期計劃的投資。以上就是我們目前能夠分享的訊息，我們期待在第四季財報中與大家分享更多資訊。

Okay. All right, thanks for taking my question.

好的。好的，謝謝你回答我的問題。

.

。

That was your final question. I just want to say.

這是你的最後一個問題。我只想說一句。

I just want to say one thing. We appreciate all of our investors and the people that analyze our industry very carefully. I just want to note that I know Adam Jonas is moving on to another segment, and I wanted to thank you for your activist investor point of view. It certainly helped us be better managers and stewards of the company. And I think we just wanted to say thank you as a management team for all of you for what you do. But when someone moves on like Adam, we want to highlight that. Thanks.

我只想說一件事。我們感謝所有投資者以及認真分析我們行業的各位人士。我只是想說明一下，我知道亞當喬納斯即將轉戰其他領域，我想感謝您作為激進投資者的觀點。這無疑幫助我們成為公司更好的管理者和守護者。我想我們管理團隊只是想對大家表示感謝，感謝你們所做的一切。但當有人像亞當一樣繼續前進時，我們想強調這一點。謝謝。

Okay. Well, thank you, operator, again. To summarize, Ford is addressing the key issues affecting our industry head on. Our improved industrial system is driving consistent results on cost and quality. Ford Pro is making Total Ford a more durable company and business. We have and will continue to take decisive actions to improve and grow our company, and I'm confident in a stronger Ford as we head into an exciting 2026. Thank you today.

好的。好的，再次感謝接線生。總而言之，福特正在正面解決影響我們產業的關鍵問題。我們改進後的工業體系在成本和品質方面都取得了持續的成效。Ford Pro 正在使 Total Ford 成為更持久的公司和企業。我們已經並將繼續採取果斷措施來改善和發展我們的公司，我對福特在邁向激動人心的 2026 年之際會變得更加強大充滿信心。今天謝謝你。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

福特汽車公司2025年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。