福特汽車 (F) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. My name is Layla. I will be your conference operator, today.

大家好。我的名字叫萊拉。今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。

At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

此時此刻，我謹代表福特汽車公司歡迎各位參加2025年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Chief Investor Relations Officer.

此時，我想把電話交給首席投資者關係長林恩安提帕斯泰森。

Thank you, Layla. Welcome to Ford Motor Company's first-quarter 2025 earnings call.

謝謝你，萊拉。歡迎參加福特汽車公司2025年第一季財報電話會議。

With me, today, are Jim Farley, President and CEO; Sherry House, CFO; and Kumar Galhotra, Chief Operating Officer.

今天與我在一起的有：總裁兼執行長吉姆法利；財務長雪莉豪斯；以及營運長庫馬爾加爾霍特拉。

Joining us for Q&A will be John Lawler, Vice Chair; Andrew Frick, President, Ford Blue and Model e and Interim Head of Ford Pro; Cathy O'Callaghan, CEO of Ford Credit; and Steve Corley, Chief Policy Officer and General Counsel.

出席問答環節的有：副主席約翰·勞勒；福特藍十字藍盾和福特e型總裁兼福特專業版臨時負責人安德魯·弗里克；福特信貸首席執行官凱西·奧卡拉漢；以及首席政策官兼總法律顧問史蒂夫·科利。

Today's discussion includes some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable US GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck, along with the rest of our earnings materials, and other important content at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論涉及一些非GAAP準則的內容。這些指標已在我們的獲利報告附錄中與最可比較的美國通用會計準則指標進行了核對。您可以在 shares.ford.com 上找到該簡報以及我們其他的收益資料和其他重要內容。

Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 20.

我們的討論也包括關於我們預期的一些前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果有所不同。可能導致實際結果差異的最重要因素列於第 20 頁。

Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year over year. Company EBIT, EPS, and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis.

除非另有說明，所有比較均為同比比較。公司息稅前利潤、每股盈餘和自由現金流量均為調整後數據。

Lastly, I want to call out two near-term IR engagements. May 28, John Lawler will participate in a fireside chat in New York, with Daniel Roeska at the Bernstein Annual Strategic Decisions Conference. Sherry House will also attend.

最後，我想重點介紹兩項近期投資者關係活動。5月28日，約翰·勞勒將在紐約參加伯恩斯坦年度戰略決策會議，與丹尼爾·羅斯卡進行爐邊談話。Sherry House也將出席。

June 4, Sherry House will participate in a fireside chat in New York, with Joe Spak at the UBS Auto and Auto Tech Conference.

6月4日，雪莉·豪斯將在紐約參加瑞銀汽車及汽車技術大會，與喬·斯帕克進行爐邊談話。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

現在，我把電話交給吉姆。

Thanks, Lynn. Thanks to all of you for joining.

謝謝你，琳恩。感謝各位的參與。

I'm going to give you an update on the state of the business and on tariffs. Kumar is going to take you through our cost and quality progress, as well as some of our mitigation for tariffs. And then, Sherry is going to take you through the financial performance and guidance. Hopefully, we'll have plenty of time for Q&A.

我將向你們報告一下公司業務狀況和關稅狀況。Kumar 將帶您了解我們的成本和品質進展，以及我們為應對關稅而採取的一些緩解措施。接下來，雪莉將帶您了解財務表現和指導。希望我們有足夠的時間進行問答環節。

Our underlying business continues to gain traction and perform well. We beat our original expectation for the quarter and before tariff-related impacts, we are on track and within our original full-year guidance range of $7 billion to $8.5 billion in EBIT.

我們的基礎業務持續成長並表現良好。本季業績超出預期，在未計入關稅相關影響的情況下，我們正按計劃推進，並符合全年息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 70 億美元至 85 億美元的預期範圍。

We had our best first-quarter US pickup sales in over 20 years. And we delivered sequential share growth in our home market. Additionally, we saw smooth execution of several major product launches in the quarter around the globe. And we continue to deliver progress against our cost and quality targets.

我們在美國第一季的皮卡銷量創下了 20 多年來的最佳紀錄。我們在本土市場實現了市場份額的環比成長。此外，本季全球幾款主要產品的發布也順利完成。我們持續朝著成本和品質目標穩步前進。

On tariffs, Ford supports the administration's goal to strengthen the US economy by growing American manufacturing. And we also support a level playing field, globally, for domestic and foreign OEMs. We also appreciate the ongoing cooperation we've had with the administration.

在關稅問題上，福特支持政府透過發展美國製造業來增強美國經濟的目標。我們也支持在全球範圍內為國內外汽車製造商創造公平的競爭環境。我們也感謝政府一直以來的合作。

As America's largest auto manufacturer, our engagement with Washington is helping US policymakers better understand how their proposed policy changes would impact our industry and, of course, our communities.

作為美國最大的汽車製造商，我們與華盛頓的互動正在幫助美國政策制定者更好地了解他們提出的政策變化將如何影響我們的行業，當然也會影響我們的社區。

Last year, we assembled over 300,000 more vehicles in the US than our closest competitor. That includes 100% of all our full-size trucks.

去年，我們在美國組裝的汽車比最接近的競爭對手多出 30 多萬輛。這包括我們全部的全尺寸卡車。

While some OEMs have open capacity in the US that will partially match our footprint advantage, they have to absorb higher costs, invest capital. And that will take time.

雖然一些原始設備製造商在美國擁有剩餘產能，可以部分抵消我們的規模優勢，但他們必須承擔更高的成本，並投入資金。這需要時間。

It's not as simple as just assembling more vehicles in the US. OEMs must also balance customer affordability, which means the ability to import parts, tariff-free.

事情並非像在美國組裝更多車輛那麼簡單。原始設備製造商還必須兼顧客戶的負擔能力，這意味著能夠免稅進口零件。

Based on what we know now, our expectations of how certain details will resolve around tariffs: we have estimated the gross impact of tariffs for full-year total company EBIT of $2.5 billion and a net impact of $1.5 billion.

根據我們目前所了解的情況，我們對關稅相關某些細節的解決方式的預期是：我們估計關稅對公司全年息稅前利潤的毛影響為 25 億美元，淨影響為 15 億美元。

It's still too early to fully understand our competitors' responses to these tariffs. It's also early to gauge the related market dynamics, including the potential industry-wide supply chain disruptions and the impact of Ford's domestic manufacturing advantages.

現在要完全了解競爭對手對這些關稅的反應還為時過早。現在評估相關的市場動態還為時過早，包括可能出現的行業範圍內的供應鏈中斷以及福特國內製造優勢的影響。

And as a result, we decided to suspend our guidance. It's clear, however, that in this new environment, in which, automakers with the largest US footprint will have a big advantage. And, boy, is that true for Ford.

因此，我們決定暫停提供指導。然而，顯而易見的是，在這種新環境下，在美國擁有最大市場份額的汽車製造商將擁有巨大的優勢。而福特的情況恰恰印證了這一點。

It puts us in the pole position, plus we have the largest value unlock even beyond that, because of our improving cost and quality opportunities. Kumar?

這使我們處於領先地位，而且由於我們在成本和品質方面的改進機會，我們還有最大的價值釋放空間。庫馬爾？

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Before I walk everyone through how we are managing the business during this evolving policy landscape, I want to quickly highlight the progress we're making on cost and quality.

在向大家詳細介紹我們在不斷變化的政策環境下如何管理業務之前，我想先快速強調一下我們在成本和品質方面的進展。

Our Industrial platform continues to deliver progress against our targets. And we remain on track to deliver $1 billion in net cost reductions this year, excluding the impact of changes in tariff policy.

我們的工業平台持續朝著既定目標穩步前進。我們仍有望在今年實現淨成本削減 10 億美元，這還不包括關稅政策變化的影響。

We're also closing our competitive cost gap and efficiently leveraging our U.S. footprint as a competitive advantage.

我們也在縮小成本差距，並有效利用我們在美國的佈局作為競爭優勢。

We're improving our production stability. And we're working to strengthen our supply base.

我們正在提高生產穩定性。我們正在努力加強我們的供應鏈基礎。

We are achieving all this by shifting our focus to the key process inputs, which, in turn, deliver the desired outputs. And those desired outputs, of course, are lower cost and better quality.

我們透過將重點轉移到關鍵流程輸入來實現這一切，而這些輸入反過來又會產生所需的輸出。當然，我們期望的結果是更低的成本和更高的品質。

Let me give you a few examples of what I mean by inputs in these processes.

讓我舉幾個例子來說明我所說的這些過程中的輸入是什麼意思。

For example, we are doing thorough readiness assessments of every workstation in our assembly plants, ahead of every launch. We are building a continuous pipeline of cost and quality improvement ideas.

例如，在每次產品發布之前，我們都會對組裝廠的每個工作站進行徹底的準備評估。我們正在建立一個持續改進成本和品質的方案庫。

So not only are we executing this quarter, we have a very clear pipeline for the next quarter and the quarter after that. We're doing regress implant audits to prevent defects from reaching our customers. We have created a comprehensive system of leading metrics that provide us early warnings if any of these outputs are at risk.

因此，我們不僅要執行本季計劃，還要為下一季和下個季度製定非常清晰的計劃。我們正在進行回歸植入審核，以防止瑕疵產品流入客戶手中。我們建立了一套全面的領先指標體系，以便在任何產出出現風險時及時發出預警。

So here are the results:

以下是結果：

We're on track to deliver year-over-year warranty savings. The warranty spikes during launch are now at industry-leading levels.

我們可望實現逐年降低保固成本的目標。上市期間的保固高峰期目前已達到業界領先水準。

We are on track to deliver greater-than-10% improvement in repairs per thousand, both for zero months in service and three months in service for 25 vehicles.

我們預計在每千輛車的維修率方面實現超過 10% 的改進，無論是在服務零個月還是服務三個月的情況下，25 輛車的維修率都能達到這一目標。

Ford and Lincoln were the most improved brands in J.D. Power's 2025 US Vehicle Dependability Study.

在 J.D. Power 發布的 2025 年美國汽車可靠性研究中，福特和林肯是進步最大的品牌。

During our launches in the first quarter, we lost zero vehicles versus our launch acceleration curves. And we deployed 9.5 million OTAs in the first quarter to address customer concerns.

在第一季的發射過程中，我們的車輛沒有損失一輛車，與我們的發射加速曲線相比，沒有損失任何車輛。第一季度，我們部署了 950 萬次 OTA 來解決客戶問題。

We're not just improving cost and quality, the team is also in the trenches taking actions to minimize the impact of tariffs on our business. In fact, their actions lowered the potential first-quarter financial impact by nearly 35%.

我們不僅在降低成本和提高質量，團隊還在前線採取行動，最大限度地減少關稅對我們業務的影響。事實上，他們的行動使第一季的潛在財務影響降低了近 35%。

Here are some of the key actions we took:

以下是我們採取的一些關鍵行動：

Vehicles shipped to Canada from Mexico via the US are now transported on bonded carriers so they aren't subject to US tariffs. We've done the same for parts that merely passed through the United States.

從墨西哥經美國運往加拿大的車輛現在都由保稅承運人運輸，因此不受美國關稅的影響。我們對那些僅僅經過美國的零件也採取了同樣的做法。

We are assessing where there are near-term resourcing actions to increase US content in our vehicles.

我們正在評估近期內可以透過哪些資源調配措施來提高我們車輛中美國零件的含量。

We have stopped exporting vehicles to China. But we do continue to leverage China as a vehicle export hub to regions like ASEAN, Australia, South America, and others where trade relations remain favorable.

我們已停止向中國出口車輛。但我們將繼續利用中國作為汽車出口中心，向東協、澳洲、南美等貿易關係仍有利的地區出口汽車。

Looking ahead, even though nearly 80% of our parts that we use in the US are USMCA-compliant, we are looking for opportunities, where it makes sense, to develop local supply chains.

展望未來，儘管我們在美國使用的零件近 80% 都符合 USMCA 標準，但我們仍在尋找合適的機會，發展本地供應鏈。

Relative to adding manufacturing capacity in the US, for Ford, this is a continuation, not a course correction.

對福特而言，在美國增加生產能力是延續，而不是糾正方向。

Since 2020, we have invested $50 billion in manufacturing capacity. And we have a lot of investments in flight, including manufacturing and battery capacity in Tennessee, battery capacity in Kentucky and Michigan, and manufacturing capacity in Ohio.

自 2020 年以來，我們已在製造業產能方面投資了 500 億美元。我們在航空領域有許多投資，包括在田納西州的製造和電池產能，在肯塔基州和密西根州的電池產能，以及在俄亥俄州的製造產能。

Thanks. Sherry, over to you.

謝謝。雪莉，該你了。

Thank you, Kumar. Thank you to the team members supporting our first-quarter product launches, as well as those helping us mitigate the financial impact of tariffs.

謝謝你，庫馬爾。感謝所有支持我們第一季產品發布的團隊成員，以及幫助我們減輕關稅帶來的經濟影響的團隊成員。

We are transforming Ford into a higher growth, higher margin, more capital-efficient, and more durable business. This was evident in our first-quarter results.

我們正在將福特轉型為一家成長更快、利潤更高、資本效率更高、更持久的企業。這一點在我們第一季的業績中顯而易見。

We delivered $1 billion in EBIT, exceeding our expectation of roughly breakeven for the quarter, driven by the team's continued progress on cost and strong net pricing in North America. When excluding the nearly $200 million impact of tariffs, this was our third consecutive quarter of year-over-year cost improvement.

我們實現了 10 億美元的息稅前利潤，超過了我們預期的本季大致收支平衡的目標，這得益於團隊在成本控制方面取得的持續進展以及北美地區強勁的淨定價。如果排除近 2 億美元的關稅影響，這是我們連續第三個季度實現年比成​​本改善。

You'll recall that during the first quarter, we had planned downtime at several plants, most notably, Kentucky Truck plant to support product launches in the rebalancing of US dealer inventory. As expected, this resulted in lower wholesales, which were down 7%, in revenue of $41 billion, which was down 5%.

您可能還記得，在第一季度，我們計劃讓幾家工廠停產，其中最值得一提的是肯塔基卡車工廠，以支持產品發布，並重新平衡美國經銷商的庫存。正如預期的那樣，這導致批發業務下降了 7%，收入為 410 億美元，下降了 5%。

The product launches were successful. And in March, we launched new versions of the Expedition and Navigator in North America, and an all-electric version of Puma in Europe.

產品發布取得了成功。3 月，我們在北美推出了新款 Expedition 和 Navigator，並在歐洲推出了 Puma 的全電動版本。

We also began production of the new Ranger/Logan hybrid EV, which goes on sale in Europe and Australia during the second quarter.

我們也開始生產新款 Ranger/Logan 混合動力電動車，該車型將於第二季在歐洲和澳洲上市。

Now, on to a few highlights from the segments.

接下來，我們來看幾個精彩片段。

Ford Pro continues to be a real competitive advantage. (inaudible) Ford Pro showed its resilience by delivering a solid quarter, despite the planned downtime at Kentucky truck plant and a normalization in industry pricing in more commoditized areas like delivery vans in daily rental.

Ford Pro 仍然是一項真正的競爭優勢。（聽不清楚）儘管肯塔基州卡車工廠計劃停工，且日租貨車等商品化領域的行業價格趨於正常化，福特專業汽車仍展現出強大的韌性，取得了穩健的季度業績。

Demand for key products like Super Duty Chassis Cabs and Transit Wagons remains strong.

對重型底盤駕駛室和運輸貨車等重點產品的需求仍然強勁。

In Europe, Pro grew its commercial brand leadership on the strength of Transit Custom and Ranger. And in North America, Pro is far and away the segment leader, with over 40% share of the US Class [1:27 ] truck and van market.

在歐洲，Pro憑藉Transit Custom和Ranger的強大實力，鞏固了其商業品牌領導地位。在北美，Pro 遙遙領先其他細分市場，佔據美國一級卡車和廂型車市場 40% 以上的份額。 [1:27]

Pro continues to serve its customers in the way that they want to be served. In addition to adding new service elite base, mobile bands are driving growth in customer-paid mobile repair orders, which are now 7% of all customer paid repair orders.

Pro 將繼續以客戶希望的方式為他們提供服務。除了增加新的服務精英用戶群外，行動頻段還在推動客戶付費行動維修訂單的成長，目前已佔所有客戶付費維修訂單的 7%。

On the software side, Pro's paid subscriptions, which deliver better-than-50% gross margin, rose to $675,000, up 20% from a year ago, with outsized growth in higher value services like fleet telematics, driving 40% growth in average revenue per unit.

在軟體方面，Pro 的付費訂閱收入（毛利率超過 50%）增長至 675,000 美元，比一年前增長了 20%，其中車隊遠端資訊處理等高價值服務的增長尤為顯著，推動每單位平均收入增長了 40%。

Ford Model e remains focused on improving gross margin and exercising capital discipline, as our battery investment scale and we deliver next-generation products that will generate profitable future growth.

福特 Model e 將繼續專注於提高毛利率和執行資本紀律，因為我們的電池投資規模不斷擴大，我們將推出下一代產品，從而創造未來獲利成長。

Model e continues to scale and it more than doubled its first-quarter wholesale volumes, driven by the recent launches of Explore, Capri, and Puma Gen-e in Europe. Model e's US retail sales grew 15% in the quarter, enabled, in part, by the success of the US Ford Power Promise campaign, which provides customers a home charger in standard installation.

Model e 繼續擴大規模，其第一季批發銷量翻了一番多，這得益於最近在歐洲推出的 Explore、Capri 和 Puma Gen-e。Model e 在美國的零售額在本季度增長了 15%，部分原因是美國福特「動力承諾」活動的成功，該活動為客戶提供標準安裝的家用充電器。

The campaign has currently seen an attach rate of 34%. Given the campaign's success, it is now being offered in Canada and in Europe.

該活動的附加率目前為 34%。鑑於該活動的成功，目前已在加拿大和歐洲推出。

Ford Blue earned a modest profit, reflecting the expected volume decline and adverse exchange due to the strengthening of the US dollar that impacted key markets like Canada and Australia, offset partially by higher net pricing in North America.

福特藍十字藍盾公司獲得了適度的利潤，這反映了預期的銷售下降以及美元走強對加拿大和澳洲等主要市場造成的不利匯率影響，但北美地區較高的淨價部分抵消了這些影響。

Blue continues to benefit from disciplined revenue management across the portfolio, along with cost reduction work that Kumar highlighted. Blue's international operations were, once again, collectively profitable.

Blue 繼續受益於其投資組合中嚴格的收入管理，以及 Kumar 強調的成本削減工作。Blue 的國際業務再次實現了整體獲利。

Iconic nameplates such as F-Series and Bronco continue to lead their respective segments.

F系列和Bronco等標誌性車型繼續在其各自細分市場中保持領先地位。

And Bronco sales grew 35%. Blue continues to see growing customer demand for its hybrids. In fact, our hybrid mix of global sales increased 250 basis points. Additionally, based on early sales data, the newly launched Expedition and Navigator have average transaction prices that are 18% and 23% higher than the outgoing model, respectively. And they are turning on dealer lots in less than 9 days.

Bronco的銷量成長了35%。Blue 的混合動力車型持續受到消費者的青睞，需求不斷增長。事實上，我們的全球銷售混合組合成長了 250 個基點。此外，根據早期銷售數據，新推出的 Expedition 和 Navigator 的平均交易價格分別比上一代車型高出 18% 和 23%。不到9天，它們就會在經銷商上架銷售。

Ford Credit delivered another solid quarter, with EBT up significantly, reflecting its high-quality book of business, higher financing margin, and higher net receivables.

福特信貸迎來了一個穩健的季度，EBT大幅成長，反映出其高品質的業務組合、更高的融資利潤率和更高的淨應收帳款。

Also in the quarter, Ford Credit paid a $200 million distribution to the automotive company.

本季度，福特信貸向這家汽車公司支付了 2 億美元的股利。

First-quarter auction values increased 3% year over year and 4% sequentially, reflecting low used car availability.

第一季拍賣價值年增 3%，季增 4%，反映出二手車供應量較低。

Ford Credit also continues to grow its active commercial lines of credit, making it a strategic asset for our Ford Pro customers.

福特信貸也持續擴大其活躍的商業信用額度，使其成為我們福特專業客戶的策略資產。

Now, on to cash flow and balance sheet.

接下來，我們來看現金流量表和資產負債表。

Free cash flow was a use of $1.5 billion, more than explained by unfavorable timing differences, net spending, and changes in working capital.

自由現金流減少了 15 億美元，這超出了不利的時間差異、淨支出和營運資本變化所能解釋的範圍。

Our balance sheet, is strong with over $27 billion in cash and over $45 billion in liquidity, as of March 31. And in April, we renewed our $18 billion corporate credit facilities for another year.

截至3月31日，我們的資產負債表穩健，擁有超過270億美元的現金和超過450億美元的流動資金。今年四月，我們又將 180 億美元的企業信貸額度續約了一年。

As we have said repeatedly, strong liquidity provides us with the flexibility to manage in this very dynamic environment, the capacity to make consistent shareholder distributions and the optionality to invest in higher return growth opportunities that truly unlock value.

正如我們一再強調的，充足的流動性使我們能夠靈活應對當前瞬息萬變的環境，能夠持續地向股東分配收益，並可以選擇投資於能夠真正釋放價值的高回報成長機會。

To that end, consistent with our commitment to return 40% to 50% of trailing free cash flow to shareholders, last week, we declared a regular second quarter dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on June 2 to shareholders of record on May 12.

為此，為了履行我們向股東返還 40% 至 50% 的往年自由現金流的承諾，上週我們宣布派發第二季度常規股息，每股 0.15 美元，將於 6 月 2 日支付給 5 月 12 日登記在冊的股東。

We -- so let's turn to our 2025 outlook. I am pleased with the progress the team has made on cost and quality. You saw green shoots of this in the first quarter and we are on track to deliver $1 billion in net cost improvement, excluding tariffs this year.

那麼，就讓我們展望一下2025年吧。我對團隊在成本和品質方面取得的進展感到滿意。第一季我們已經看到了這種趨勢的萌芽，我們預計今年將實現淨成本降低 10 億美元（不包括關稅）。

Excluding the impact of tariffs, we are within our previous EBIT guidance range of $7 billion to $8.5 billion. Based on what the company knows now and our expectation of how certain details and changes will be resolved related to tariffs, we estimate a gross adverse EBIT impact of $2.5 billion and a net adverse EBIT impact of about $1.5 billion for full-year 2025.

不計關稅的影響，我們的息稅前利潤仍在我們先前預測的 70 億美元至 85 億美元範圍內。根據公司目前掌握的資訊以及我們對與關稅相關的某些細節和變化將如何解決的預期，我們估計 2025 年全年將產生 25 億美元的毛不利 EBIT 影響和約 15 億美元的淨不利 EBIT 影響。

Given material tariff-related near-term risks and the potential range of outcomes, we are suspending guidance for full-year 2025. These near-term risks include, among other things: industry-wide supply chain disruption impacting production; future or increased tariffs in the US; changes in the implementation of tariffs, including tariff offsets, retaliatory tariffs, and other restrictions by other governments in the potential related market caps; and finally, policy uncertainties associated with tax and emissions policy.

鑑於近期關稅相關的重大風險以及可能出現的各種結果，我們暫停發布 2025 年全年業績指引。這些近期風險包括：影響生產的產業供應鏈中斷；美國未來或增加的關稅；關稅實施方式的變化，包括關稅抵銷、報復性關稅以及其他國家政府對相關市場規模的其他限制；以及與稅收和排放政策相關的政策不確定性。

We will provide an update on guidance during the Q2 earnings call. Before we go to Q&A, let me wrap with this.

我們將在第二季財報電話會議上提供最新業績指引。在進入問答環節之前，讓我先總結一下。

Our underlying performance, excluding tariffs, is in line with our original targets; our U.S. footprint is a competitive advantage, as the industry navigates the impact of tariffs; and our strong balance sheet provides flexibility to continue to invest in profitable growth while managing industry dynamics.

不計關稅，我們的基本業績符合我們最初的目標；在行業應對關稅影響之際，我們在美國的業務佈局是一項競爭優勢；我們強勁的資產負債表使我們有靈活性繼續投資於盈利增長，同時應對行業動態。

Thank you. Back to you, operator.

謝謝。操作員，交還給您了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

Emmanuel Rosner，Wolfe Research。

Great. Thank you so much. I appreciate the color on tariffs.

偉大的。太感謝了。我喜歡關稅上的色彩。

I was hoping you can give us maybe a little bit more. And in particular, on the gross tariff headwinds, what goes into this $2.5 million? Could you give us, maybe, buckets, in terms of whether -- how much is from complete vehicle from parts, anything else that's in there? And whether the 3.75% offset that was announced by the White House last week, is that considered as well in a growth headwind?

我希望您能再提供一些資訊。特別是關於關稅方面的不利影響，這 250 萬美元具體包括哪些內容？您能否給我們一些分類信息，例如——有多少是整車零件，有多少是其他部件，以及其他什麼東西？白宮上周宣布的 3.75% 的抵銷措施是否也被視為成長逆風？

And then, a similar question on-the-net, what are the offsets?

然後，網路上出現了一個類似的問題：偏移量是多少？

Yeah. Sure. The $2.5 billion in gross cost is based on what we know now and our expectations of how certain details and changes will be resolved, relative to tariffs.

是的。當然。25億美元的總成本是根據我們目前所了解的情況以及我們對某些細節和變化（與關稅相關）將如何解決的預期而估算出來的。

For us, we're estimating that it's roughly half parts and half imported vehicles. We have assumed that we would get credit for the US content in our vehicles that are going to be going over the border. So that is already assumed in this $2.5 billion.

我們估計，其中大約一半是零件，一半是進口車輛。我們一直認為，我們那些要過境的車輛，其美國製造的零件含量可以得到認可。所以這部分已經包含在這25億美元裡了。

On the parts side, this is also inclusive of steel and aluminum. Now, for steel and aluminum, that isn't just tariffs because, in fact, 85% of our steel is already purchased domestically in the US and all of our sheet aluminum is purchased in the US.

零件方面，也包括鋼和鋁。現在，對於鋼鐵和鋁來說，這不僅僅是關稅的問題，因為事實上，我們85%的鋼鐵都是在美國國內購買的，我們所有的鋁板也都是在美國購買的。

However, we do believe that there are pricing impacts that we will encounter. We have over 50% locked and hedged. But there are impacts. And that is included in our parts number.

但是，我們相信會遇到價格方面的影響。我們已鎖定和對沖超過50%的資金。但這樣做是有影響的。而這都包含在我們的零件編號中。

Additionally, there are tariffs on some parts that we import to China. So we have certain powertrains that go into China, today.

此外，我們進口到中國的一些零件還需要繳納關稅。所以，目前我們有一些動力總成出口到中國。

So this is what is comprising the $2.5 billion. And I think you had a question regarding the offsets and the offsets the 3.75% is included in what we have come to with our $2.5 billion gross number?

這就是25億美元的組成部分。我想你之前問過關於抵銷的問題，而這 3.75% 的抵銷是否包含在我們最終得出的 25 億美元總額中呢？

Our net adverse EBIT impact is estimated at about $1.5 billion for the full-year 2025. And that includes about $1 billion of offsetting recovery actions.

預計到 2025 年全年，我們的淨不利 EBIT 影響約為 15 億美元。其中包括約10億美元的抵銷性復甦措施。

I was hoping you could give us a little more color around some of these offset actions? Is it price? Is it costs? What's essentially assumed in this offset?

我希望您能更詳細地介紹一下這些偏移操作？是價格問題嗎？有成本嗎？這個偏移量本質上假設了什麼？

The largest element of the offset is market equation optimization. And I'll let you know what I mean by that.

抵消機制中最重要的因素是市場方程式優化。我會告訴你我的意思。

But we do have some cost mitigation examples in there, as well, such as -- as we said in our prepared remarks -- vehicles shipped to Canada from Mexico via the US are now transported on bonded carriers, so they aren't subject to U.S. tariffs.

但我們也提供了一些降低成本的例子，例如——正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所說——從墨西哥經美國運往加拿大的車輛現在由保稅承運人運輸，因此不受美國關稅的影響。

And we're doing similar actions on parts, as well. Now, in the market equation optimization to come up with the $1 billion, we ran a range of market factor scenarios, segment by segment, channel by channel, vehicles by vehicle, inclusive of the competitive landscape.

我們也對零件採取了類似的措施。為了優化市場方程式以得出 10 億美元的目標，我們逐一細分市場、逐個渠道、逐個車型地運行了一系列市場因素情景，包括競爭格局。

We varied inputs such as pricing, such as volume, such as SAAR. And we considered that there are certain segments, for instance, where we have 100% of production in the US, like our full-size pickup trucks, where competitors are much less than that.

我們改變了各種輸入參數，例如價格、銷售量、SAAR 等。我們認為，在某些細分市場，例如我們的全尺寸皮卡，我們的生產100%都在美國進行，而競爭對手的數量遠少於我們。

So we've taken all of these competitive dynamics as well as these inputs into consideration and have ran a number of permutations. When we triangulate on that, it comes up with this $1 billion, inclusive of some of the cost items that I mentioned.

因此，我們已經將所有這些競爭動態和這些輸入因素考慮在內，並進行了多次組合試驗。當我們進行三角計算後，得出的結果是 10 億美元，其中包括我提到的一些成本項目。

Great. And then, if I could have a follow-up on guidance.

偉大的。然後，如果可以的話，能否得到一些後續指導？

So you indicated that Ford would have been on track, excluding tariff for the initial EBIT guidance. Now, obviously, Q1 was a stronger-than-expected performance to the tune of about $1 billion versus your previous expectations.

所以你表示，如果排除關稅因素，福特最初的息稅前利潤預期將會按計畫實現。顯然，第一季的業績強於預期，比先前的預期高出約 10 億美元。

Are there any negative offsets elsewhere that would have left you where your initial guidance is? Or are you just saying that you would have landed within the range?

其他方面是否有任何不利因素，導致你最終得出與最初預期相符的結論？還是你只是想說你會落在射程範圍內？

Yeah. It' a very solid start, Emmanuel, especially our warranty -- our negotiated parts purchase prices, as well as the build material simplification; and frankly, very strong pricing for our new vehicles.

是的。伊曼紐爾，這是一個非常穩健的開端，尤其是我們的保固——我們協商的零件採購價格，以及簡化的製造材料；坦白說，我們新車的定價也非常有競爭力。

But we have so much more in front of us with the year going on that's -- we're not going to give you any specifics within the range. But the team is off to a really great start.

但今年還有很多事情要做——我們不會透露具體細節。但球隊的開局非常出色。

Obviously, our focus is on that execution for a fourth quarter in a row of year over year cost improvements. And the results will speak for themselves.

顯然，我們的重點是實現連續第四個季度年比成本下降的目標。結果會說明一切。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

丹·利維，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to start, first, with a question on volume and inventory. If you could, maybe, give us a sense of how you expect volume to play out in the coming months, your own volumes, given the different dynamics?

首先，我想問一個關於銷售和庫存的問題。如果您可以的話，能否讓我們了解一下您預計未來幾個月銷量將如何變化，以及您自己的銷量在各種不同因素的影響下會如何？

And previously, you gave us some guidance on inventory that you were going to get through your destocking by the middle of the year. Are you looking at your inventory any differently now that it's considerably more valuable than what it was before, given the tariff dynamics?

此前，您曾就庫存問題向我們做出一些指示，表示您將在年中完成清倉工作。鑑於關稅政策的變化，您的庫存價值比以前高得多，您是否以不同的視角看待您的庫存？

Yeah. Thank you, Dan.

是的。謝謝你，丹。

We've seen, obviously, a very strong industry performance through April. And the first half is running over 17.5 million SAAR, right now. So we are running a lot of scenarios on price and volume impacts.

顯然，我們已經看到4月份整個產業表現非常強勁。目前，上半年票房已超過1750萬SAAR。因此，我們正在模擬價格和銷售量受到的影響的各種情境。

In our assumptions, we do expect industry pricing, related to tariffs, at about 1% to 1.5% in the second half, with full-year pricing flat. With that, we now expect the industry SAAR to run about 0.5 million units lower than our original plan during the second half of the year, around 15.5 million units.

根據我們的假設，我們預計下半年與關稅相關的行業定價將上漲約 1% 至 1.5%，全年定價將保持不變。因此，我們現在預計今年下半年產業 SAAR 將比我們最初的計畫低約 50 萬台，約 1,550 萬台。

And the important thing around that is timing. If net pricing changes come from reduced incentive spend, it could happen more immediately; in other scenarios, it comes from top-line pricing, which would be a little later this summer, when inventory hits dealerships. And we're likely to see that probably happen around the June time period.

而其中最重要的是時機。如果淨價格變化源於激勵支出減少，那麼價格變化可能會更快發生；在其他情況下，淨價格變化源於最高定價，而最高定價的變動可能會在今年夏天晚些時候，也就是庫存到達經銷商時發生。我們很可能會在六月左右看到這種情況發生。

We're measured in our approach to pricing for tariffs and, really, inherent in your question, we believe our footprint advantage offers us added flexibility to the changing market dynamic.

我們在關稅定價方面採取了審慎的態度，而且，正如您的問題所指出的，我們相信我們的地域優勢使我們能夠更靈活地應對不斷變化的市場動態。

Our current inventory levels allow us to be more opportunistic in the market. And if we find an opportunity to go for share, we will, if it's profitable, we left April with a 56-day supply and dealer stock in a 66 -gross supply.

我們目前的庫存水準使我們能夠在市場中更靈活地把握機會。如果找到機會進軍股票市場，並且有利可圖，我們就會這麼做。截至 4 月底，我們的庫存量為 56 天，經銷商庫存量為 66 天。

And we're looking -- as Sherry mentioned earlier, we are looking at this vehicle line by vehicle line, segment by segment, taking into account not only tariffs but, also, stock levels, macroeconomic environment, and competitive pricing.

正如雪莉之前提到的，我們正在逐個車型、逐一細分市場地進行研究，不僅要考慮關稅，還要考慮庫存水準、宏觀經濟環境和競爭性定價。

Okay. Great. As a follow-up, Jim, I'd like to ask about your efforts in software-defined vehicles. And specifically, there was a media report out there that FNV for your network architecture is getting scrapped.

好的。偉大的。吉姆，我想接著問一下你在軟體定義汽車領域的工作進度。具體來說，有媒體報告稱，FNV 網路架構將被棄用。

If you could just address what the -- if they confirm if that's correct, if the Ford plans are to develop your own or to partner with someone? And how should we think about the resource allocation towards this, what the saves could be given, I believe, a lot of this was hitting in modeling?

如果您能解答一下—如果他們確認情況屬實，福特的計劃是自行開發還是與他人合作？我們該如何考慮這方面的資源分配，可以節省多少成本？我相信，很多問題都在建模過程中解決了。

Well, thank you for your question. Our strategy hasn't changed. It's a very significant save for capital efficiency.

謝謝你的提問。我們的策略沒有改變。這對於提高資本效率來說是一項非常重要的節省。

We simply merged our two Ford zone electric architectures into one. This is very important for the company because our software is going faster than we expected. And the advanced electric architectures allow us to deliver software to the vehicles and customers in a more efficient way.

我們只是將福特的兩款區域電動架構合併成一款了。這對公司來說非常重要，因為我們的軟體運行速度比我們預期的要快。先進的電氣架構使我們能夠以更有效率的方式向車輛和客戶提供軟體。

And we were very ambitious with our advanced electric architectures, applying to ICE vehicles, not just advanced electric architectures for EV. So we brought that all together in FNV3. It's a great move for the company.

我們對我們的先進電氣架構抱有非常大的雄心，不僅將其應用於電動車，還應用於內燃機汽車。所以我們把所有這些功能整合到了FNV3中。這對公司來說是個明智之舉。

Our zone electric architecture is now going to be delivered on our CE1 of (inaudible) product. And I think this is a major learning for the company -- that we could do it at a lower price point than FNV4, as well.

我們的區域電氣架構現在將應用於我們的 CE1（聽不清楚）產品。我認為這對公司來說是一個重要的教訓——我們也能以比 FNV4 更低的價格做到這一點。

This save also has a big impact on the cost of our future products. So all of our products will be more affordable now. In fact, we're targeting our next-generation products to be cheaper than our current outgoing products.

此次節省對我們未來產品的成本也有著巨大的影響。因此，我們所有產品的價格都會更實惠。事實上，我們計劃讓下一代產品比我們目前推出的產品更便宜。

And a big factor of that is FNV3 versus FNV4. This will actually enhance our integrated services software revenue and profitability, this move.

其中一個重要因素是FNV3與FNV4之間的差異。此舉實際上將提升我們整合服務軟體的收入和獲利能力。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧喬納斯，摩根士丹利。

Jim or Sherry, whoever wants to take this. In your estimation, of the $1.5 billion net tariff headwind you referred to potential supply chain disruption, you can quantify it but you referred to potential, as a part of the reason why you also withdrew the guidance.

吉姆或雪莉，誰想拿就拿。在你估計的15億美元淨關稅阻力（你提到它可能導致供應鏈中斷）中，你可以量化它，但你用了「可能」這個詞，這也是你撤回指導意見的部分原因。

I'm just asking very bluntly: Are you seeing any signs of distress or interruption of the supply chain, following the volatility and the implementation of the import tariffs, to date? Just curious, like, even after the end of the quarter, is it still all clear? Or are you seeing some disruption?

我直截了當地問：鑑於目前的市場波動和進口關稅的實施，您是否看到供應鏈出現任何中斷或中斷的跡象？我只是好奇，即使季度末了，情況還清楚嗎？或者您是否遇到一些中斷情況？

And I have a follow-up.

我還有一個後續問題。

Yeah. Adam, this is Kumar. Let me take that, from a supply chain perspective.

是的。亞當，這位是庫馬爾。讓我從供應鏈的角度來談談這個問題。

There's been so much volatility in the tariff policy so that could cause disruption. I'll just give you a quick example.

關稅政策波動性很大，這可能會造成混亂。我給你舉個簡單的例子。

The rare earth materials from China, for example, how they are imported, not just for us but for the entire industry has become rather complicated over the last few weeks. And it could potentially -- it would take only a few parts to potentially cause some disruption into our production.

例如，過去幾週，從中國進口稀土材料的方式，不僅對我們，而且對整個產業來說，變得相當複雜。而且，它可能——只需要幾個部件就可能對我們的生產造成一些幹擾。

There are other supply -- other uncertainty and associated tax and emission policy that could cause some disruption.

還有其他供應問題——其他不確定因素以及相關的稅收和排放政策可能會造成一些幹擾。

And, of course, the competitive response. So let's say, we get disrupted and one of our competitors doesn't get disrupted or vice versa, that could obviously have an impact on volume and pricing.

當然，還有競爭對手的回應。假設我們受到干擾，而我們的一個競爭對手沒有受到干擾，反之亦然，這顯然會對銷量和價格產生影響。

And just as a follow-up, in previous calls, when Ford has talked about its AI strategy, it included an emphasis on automation, robotics.

作為後續補充，在先前的電話會議中，福特在談到其人工智慧策略時，重點強調了自動化和機器人技術。

I'm curious how your thinking on automation has evolved, given the pressures to onshore more manufacturing? And specifically, has your team explored humanoid robotics with your tech partners, as many of your more tech-forward automotive competition, both in the US and in China, are doing?

鑑於製造業向國內轉移的壓力，我很想知道您對自動化的看法是如何演變的？具體來說，您的團隊是否像美國和中國許多更具技術前瞻性的汽車競爭對手一樣，與您的技術合作夥伴一起探索過人形機器人技術？

Adam, Kumar, again. Humanoid, let me answer that part of the question first. Not directly. Obviously, we're not working on that directly.

又是亞當，庫馬爾。人形機器人，讓我先回答這個問題。不直接。顯然，我們並沒有直接從事這方面的工作。

But in our manufacturing system, we are working with several partners on some very specific projects that can do AI and save us substantial amounts of cost. So we're deploying AI in our PD system.

但在我們的製造系統中，我們正在與幾個合作夥伴進行一些非常具體的項目，這些項目可以應用人工智慧，並為我們節省大量成本。因此，我們正在警務系統中部署人工智慧。

For example, a lot of the time we take surrogate parts and then, manually design a lot of those parts with AI, we are automating the design process to take a bunch of weeks out of the PD system.

例如，很多時候我們會使用替代零件，然後利用人工智慧手動設計其中許多零件，從而實現設計流程的自動化，為產品開發系統節省數週時間。

I'll share an example with you. We have a Boston Dynamics dog in our supply -- in our Spain Valencia plant, that's where the experiment started. It literally has sensors on it that can see here, feel the vibration, smell any leaks of oil, et cetera.

我給你舉個例子。我們的供應中有一隻波士頓動力公司的實驗犬——它來自我們在西班牙瓦倫西亞的工廠，實驗就是從那裡開始的。它上面裝有感應器，可以在這裡看到東西，感受到震動，聞到任何漏油的氣味等等。

It just literally walks around the plant all day long and has changed how we do our preventive maintenance because it can see and hear and look for error states well before a human being could.

它整天都在工廠裡走來走去，改變了我們進行預防性維護的方式，因為它可以在人類之前看到、聽到並發現錯誤狀態。

So we have processes like that going through quality, through manufacturing and through PD, using AI that are overall improving our efficiency in all those areas.

因此，我們在品質、製造和產品開發等各個環節都採用了人工智慧等流程，從而全面提高了我們在所有這些領域的效率。

Maybe, Lynn, will let you use the dog and see if it gets along with her dogs, we can talk about that offline.

也許琳恩會讓你試試她的狗，看看它和她的狗相處得怎麼樣，我們可以私下討論這件事。

Joseph Spak, UBS.

約瑟夫‧斯帕克，瑞銀集團。

Sherry, you did mention that it looks like you'll be able to give guidance, again, with second-quarter earnings. But you also started off by saying there's a lot of near-term uncertainty, as it relates to tariffs, the economy, SAAR, pricing, et cetera.

雪莉，你之前提到過，你似乎能夠再次根據第二季的收益情況給予業績指引。但你一開始也提到，近期存在著許多不確定性，涉及關稅、經濟、季節性調整後的稅率、定價等等。

So what really are you looking for here over the coming months to give you confidence to be able to put the guidance and outlook back in? Like, what do you expect to know that you don't know today?

那麼，在接下來的幾個月裡，你真正希望獲得什麼，才能讓你重拾信心，重新制定方向和展望未來？例如，你希望將來知道哪些你現在還不知道的事？

Well, first off, I just want to clarify my comments, relative to Q2. We'll provide an update at that point with the best information that we have at that time. I just wanted to set the expectation that we would be back talking at that point in time.

首先，我想澄清一下我關於 Q2 的評論。屆時我們將根據我們掌握的最新資訊提供最新消息。我只是想讓大家知道，到時候我們會再聯絡。

There's a number of things that we are working through. Really, it's the policy issues that we had alluded to. The clarification of how some of these are landing, as well as some uncertainty associated with tax and emission policy.

我們正在努力解決很多問題。實際上，是我們之前提到的那些政策問題。需要澄清其中一些措施的具體落實情況，以及與稅收和排放政策相關的一些不確定性。

How the customer is going to react, this is going to be very key for us. As we move into the second half of the year, we see how do they react to this potential increase in pricing that may result from these tariffs costs the competitors and us are encountering?

客戶的反應對我們來說至關重要。隨著我們進入下半年，我們將觀察他們將如何應對競爭對手和我們目前面臨的關稅成本可能導致的價格上漲？

And then, just, really, that whole competitive dynamic and how the competition reacts, as well.

然後，還有整個競爭動態以及競爭對手的反應。

These are the key items.

這些是關鍵項目。

Okay. Sorry for misinterpreting that.

好的。抱歉，我誤會你的意思了。

And then, Jim, look, I know, as we've already gone over in this call, there's some outstanding issues on tariff and trade. But we are -- it does seem like we're beyond the (inaudible), if you will, on uncertainty.

然後，吉姆，我知道，正如我們在這次通話中已經討論過的，關稅和貿易方面還有一些懸而未決的問題。但是我們——看起來我們似乎已經超越了（聽不清楚）的不確定性。

But there are other regulations and policies that it seems are going to be tackled by commissions. So I'm wondering how you're viewing that as it relates to some of your powertrain investment? Like, what does it mean for the next-gen project and Model e, more broadly?

但似乎還有其他一些法規和政策將由各委員會來處理。所以我想知道您是如何看待這一點，以及它與您的動力系統投資之間的關係？那麼，這對於下一代專案以及更廣泛意義上的Model e來說又意味著什麼呢？

Like, you've clearly taken a lot of costs out of e and done a lot of work on the next gen, but ultimately, you need volume. So how are you viewing that as part of the strategy?

顯然，你們已經大幅降低了e的成本，並在下一代產品上投入了大量精力，但歸根結底，你們需要的是銷售量。那麼，您如何看待將其納入策略考量？

Yeah. We see the next iteration -- as you said, tariffs haven't played out. We have to see the retaliatory part of tariffs.

是的。我們看到了下一階段的發展——正如你所說，關稅問題還沒有解決。我們必須看到關稅的報復性作用。

Good example is Canada. I think we -- we got to a good output, right now, with Canada. We'll see how that works out.

加拿大就是一個很好的例子。我認為我們—我們目前與加拿大的合作已經取得了不錯的成果。我們看看結果如何。

But to your point about -- PTC is very important to us. The production tax credit and IRA, very critical decision for their reconciliation and upcoming tax legislation in the United States.

但正如您所說——PTC 對我們來說非常重要。生產稅收抵免和個人退休帳戶（IRA）是協調二者關係以及美國即將出台的稅收立法的一個非常關鍵的決定。

I think we're very close to it. I think we've been incredibly -- we put a lot of effort into raising awareness of how critical this is for the states in the Midwest, where all this manufacturing investment that Sherry mentioned is going in.

我認為我們已經非常接近目標了。我認為我們已經做得非常出色——我們投入了大量精力來提高人們對中西部各州的重要性的認識，雪莉提到的所有製造業投資都流向了那裡。

Obviously, the IRA consumer credit, tax for EV purchases will be very a substantial upcoming policy effort. But that will also be balanced with the '27 and beyond CO2 requirements for the EPA, as well as the California waiver.

顯然，IRA消費者信貸、電動車購買稅收優惠將是即將到來的一項非常重要的政策舉措。但這也需要與美國環保署 2027 年及以後的二氧化碳排放要求以及加州的豁免相平衡。

And I think those will be offsetting. We don't know how it's going to look, right now. But that would be a second area, I would say, would be very meaningful, in addition to tariffs.

我認為這些影響會相互抵消。我們現在還不知道最終會是什麼樣子。但除了關稅之外，我認為這將是一個非常有意義的第二個領域。

And I think I think there's quite a bit of policy around the globe on emissions that will play out for a company like Ford that is global.

我認為，全球範圍內有很多關於排放的政策，這些政策將對像福特這樣的全球性公司產生影響。

But I would say we're encouraged by the level of engagement with Ford, with all lawmakers and the administration. They want for -- a company like Ford that bet on America to win in this next era of the automotive industry that increasingly looks like a regional business.

但我認為，我們對福特公司、所有立法者和政府的參與程度感到鼓舞。他們想要的是像福特這樣的公司，押注美國將在汽車產業的下一個​​時代取得勝利，而這個時代越來越像是區域性企業。

And I think we feel that as long as we do our jobs to engage the key decision makers in all the policy areas around the world, Ford will emerge as one of the companies that is in really great shape, relative to its competition and for the customers.

我認為，只要我們做好本職工作，與世界各地所有政策領域的關鍵決策者溝通，福特就會成為相對於競爭對手和客戶而言，發展勢頭非常強勁的公司之一。

I think our -- the PTC though, I would just say, is an outsized impact for us and for the industry.

我認為，我們的 PTC，我只想說，對我們和整個產業來說，都產生了巨大的影響。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

約翰‧墨菲，美國銀行。

(technical difficulty) Move to my question here. There's a lot of focus on the cost and direct impact of tariffs but not necessarily enough, or at least in my opinion, focus on the indirect impact and the potential for you to take market share; the potential for demand; construction goes up dramatically in the US, as you see reshoring for a lot of products, particularly the F-150 and the Super Duties; as well as the rise in used vehicle pricing, which is very helpful to FMCC.

（技術問題）請移步至我的問題處。人們非常關注關稅的成本和直接影響，但對間接影響以及你奪取市場份額的潛力關注不足，至少在我看來是這樣；對需求的關注不足；隨著許多產品（尤其是 F-150 和 Super Duty）的生產回流，美國的建築業大幅增長；以及二手車價格的上漲，這對 FMCC 非常有利。

So maybe you can just take a few minutes and talk about those potentials because they don't sound like they're (inaudible) the net impact because you, guys, are doing just the scientific math, not necessarily into second and third redo potential impacts, here. And this could be pretty huge for you.

所以，也許你們可以花幾分鐘時間談談這些可能性，因為它們聽起來不像（聽不清楚）淨影響，因為你們只是在做科學計算，而沒有考慮第二次和第三次重做的潛在影響。這對你來說可能意義重大。

Yeah. The governor on that, whether it goes slow or fast, is always going to be the competitors, as Sherry said.

是的。正如雪莉所說，州長在這件事上，無論進展緩慢或迅速，最終決定權始終在競爭對手手中。

And as she said, we've looked literally in every segment who are cross-shop competitor is, the nameplate, where they built, what kind of tariff exposure they have, what kind of pricing they've had in the past, what our difference is on pricing.

正如她所說，我們已經仔細研究了每個細分市場的競爭對手，包括他們的品牌、生產地點、面臨的關稅風險、過去的定價策略以及我們在定價方面的差異。

And we also looked at the timing of when they would make pricing decisions and when that inventory would be in the dealerships, given their supply chain because all the importers have different supply chains.

我們還研究了他們何時做出定價決定以及庫存何時到達經銷商的時間，考慮到他們的供應鏈，因為所有進口商的供應鏈都不同。

And we feel very comfortable that we've made a very reasonable call embedded in that $1.5 billion net.

我們非常有信心，我們做出了一個非常合理的決定，並將這15億美元的淨收益納入考量。

But there is no doubt that Ford, given our manufacturing footprint, has the opportunity that few companies have. We don't want to get ahead of ourselves but we have the freshest line-up we've ever had in North America.

但毫無疑問，鑑於福特的生產規模，它擁有其他公司難以企及的機會。我們不想操之過急，但我們擁有北美有史以來最新鮮的陣容。

The F-150 is new. Super Duty is brand new. We have all new full-size SUVs. Many of our competitors import into those segments. We have a new Explorer. A lot of our utilities are new, as well. And they're very well positioned, competitively.

F-150是新款。Super Duty是全新產品。我們全部配備了全新的全尺寸SUV。我們的許多競爭對手都向這些領域進口商品。我們新添置了一輛探險者。我們很多公用設施也是新建的。他們在競爭中處於非常有利的地位。

And, also, our inventory is in good shape. And that's why we didn't wait, John.

此外，我們的庫存狀況良好。所以，約翰，我們才沒有等。

As soon as this happened, we went to our new promotion campaign for employee pricing. It has really shrunk our stock and our dealerships, as Andrew said. And we are gaining share.

這件事發生後，我們立即啟動了針對員工的優惠促銷活動。正如安德魯所說，這確實大幅縮減了我們的庫存和經銷商數量。我們正在擴大市場份額。

The share gain in April was even higher than March. So we continue to see a wind at our back. People really like the employee message -- employee pricing message. And you can expect Ford to be very aggressive in the market.

4月的股價漲幅甚至高於3月。所以我們還是覺得順風順水。人們非常喜歡員工優惠資訊——員工定價資訊。可以預見，福特將在市場上採取非常積極的策略。

It gives us optionality on those upside scenarios. But at this point, for financial planning, we thought we just go do our homework, be very recent in our approach; and no doubt about it, we're investing in marketing, with that mentality of an opportunity.

它讓我們在那些有利的情況下擁有更多選擇。但就目前而言，在財務規劃方面，我們認為應該做好功課，採用最新的方法；毫無疑問，我們正在投資行銷，秉持著抓住機會的心態。

And then, just a quick second question on pricing. I think you, guys, were saying net price for the industry, up 1% to 1.5% in the second half of the year; and that might demand down to [15.5 million]. That seems like a pretty high price elasticity of demand, particularly given all the pent-up demand that's out there.

最後，關於價格還有一個小問題。我認為你們剛才說的是，下半年產業淨價上漲1%到1.5%；這可能會導致需求下降。[1550萬]考慮到目前存在的巨大潛在需求，這個需求價格彈性似乎相當高。

So I'm just curious if I heard that correctly; and how you guys are coming up with that number because that sounds pretty punitive, as well.

所以我很好奇我是否聽得沒錯；還有，你們是怎麼得出這個數字的，因為這聽起來懲罰性也相當強。

Thanks, John. It's Andrew. Just to follow up to the previous statement that I made on it.

謝謝你，約翰。是安德魯。我只是想補充我之前就此發表的聲明。

We really are looking at the run rates, not only -- so with the assumption of the 1% to 1.5% and full-year pricing, flat. We also see some element of payback scenario from what we've seen in the first half of the year, as well, as we've run up.

我們確實在關注運行率，而不僅僅是——假設運行率為 1% 到 1.5%，並且全年定價保持不變。從今年上半年的情況來看，我們也看到了一些回報的跡象，因為我們一路走來。

So that was also factored into what we think the run rate will be against the [15.5 million]. And that's just based on our modeling that we've done, as Jim said, segment by segment but also in terms of how each one of those segments performs against the elasticity of the pricing that we assumed.

所以，這也被納入了我們對對手勝率的預測。[1550萬]正如吉姆所說，這只是基於我們所做的建模，我們逐個細分市場進行建模，而且還根據每個細分市場在我們假設的價格彈性方面的表現進行建模。

And that pure light, not with (inaudible) heavy, is that correct?

那種純粹的光，沒有（聽不清楚的）沉重感，是這樣嗎？

I'm sorry. Can you repeat that?

對不起。你能再說一次嗎？

Is that -- that pure-light vehicle SAAR estimate, not including medium and heavy, is that correct? .

是指——不包括中型和重型車輛的純輕型車輛 SAAR 估算值，對嗎？。

Yes. That's correct.

是的。沒錯。

John, we see customers doing (inaudible) can to afford a new vehicle. Cathy has seen 84-month financing increases on share of our offer on the financing side.

約翰，我們看到一些客戶（聽不清楚）能夠負擔得起一輛新車。Cathy 發現，在融資方面，我們報價的份額增加了 84 個月。

Natural level were well within the bounds of the industry. But customers are doing what they need to do adjust for their payments.

自然水平完全在行業範圍內。但客戶們正在採取必要的措施來調整他們的付款方式。

Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.

馬克‧德萊尼，高盛集團。

I'm hoping to better understand the linearity of the $1.5 billion net tariff headwind over the balance of this year. And what percent mitigation do you think you might be exiting the year?

我希望能夠更了解今年剩餘時間內 15 億美元淨關稅逆風的線性變化規律。你認為到年底你能達到多少百分比的減排目標？

Because I assume that you have more time to implement some of these offsets, the level of headwinds may moderate as the year goes on. And as you think longer term, if there are not policy changes, do you think Ford can fully mitigate the tariff cost that it's seen, with supply chain cost and/or price changes?

因為我假設您有更多時間來實施其中一些抵消措施，所以隨著時間的推移，不利因素的程度可能會有所緩和。從長遠來看，如果沒有政策變化，您認為福特能否透過供應鏈成本和/或價格變化來完全抵消其所面臨的關稅成本？

Yeah. Thank you for your question. I would say there isn't really any linearity to speak to, with respect to the tariff costs and our offsets.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我認為，就關稅成本和我們的抵銷措施而言，兩者之間並不存在任何線性關係。

The offsets, we're going to continue to manage as we go. We're going to be looking at the market factor scenarios that I mentioned; looking at SAAR; pricing volume; and we'll be adjusting on a real-time basis for that, as we go.

我們將繼續根據實際情況調整抵銷策略。我們將研究我提到的市場因素情境；研究 SAAR；定價量；並根據實際情況即時調整。

Understood. I also wanted to ask on Pro. You called out the continued solid growth you're having in subscribers. Maybe you could double-click where you're seeing the most strength in subscribers? Is it more coming from big fleets or small- and medium-sized businesses or both?

明白了。我還想問專業版的情況。您提到了訂閱用戶數量持續穩定成長的情況。或許您可以雙擊查看訂閱用戶數量最多的區域？是大型車隊的支出更多，還是中小企業的支出更多，還是兩者兼具？

And, maybe, on Pro, can you also give us an update on where you stand with your goal to have 20% of Pro EBIT coming from software and services next year? .

另外，關於Pro業務，您能否也向我們介紹一下您明年實現Pro業務息稅前利潤20%來自軟體和服務的目標進度？。

Yeah. Thanks. It's Andrew.

是的。謝謝。是安德魯。

We continue to see our software and services business grow. We are tracking towards an increase in the software and services as a percent of EBIT, by the end of the year.

我們的軟體和服務業務持續成長。我們預計到年底，軟體和服務收入佔息稅前利潤的百分比將會增加。

We're adding a lot of physical services that will help drive that. We have the largest commercial network and continue to invest in that growth. So we've been adding capacity, both in our dealer network but also in our mobile service network.

我們正在增加許多實體服務，這將有助於推動這一目標的實現。我們擁有最大的商業網絡，並將繼續投資於這一成長。因此，我們一直在增加產能，包括經銷商網路和行動服務網路。

We now have 66 operating Ford Pro elite centers around the country. We have the largest mobile service units: the fleet, at 4,600 units. And that business continues to grow.

目前我們在全國擁有 66 家營運中的福特專業精英中心。我們擁有規模最大的行動服務車隊：共有 4,600 輛。而且這項業務還在持續成長。

And we're seeing higher service and parts attach rate, with customers that are procuring our Ford Pro Intelligence solutions.

我們發現，採購我們福特專業智慧解決方案的客戶，其服務和零件的附加率也更高。

In addition, on the software services -- to the first part of your question, the paid subscriptions grew by 20% year over year to 625,000 total users. Telematics was up 80% and a key driver -- that was a key driver to the 40% ARPU growth that Sherry talked about. And we're really seeing it across the customer base.

此外，關於軟體服務—針對您問題的第一部分，付費訂閱用戶年增 20%，總用戶數達到 625,000 人。遠端資訊處理業務成長了 80%，是推動 ARPU 成長 40% 的關鍵因素，正如 Sherry 所說。而且我們確實在所有客戶群中都看到了這種情況。

Small, medium businesses are now utilizing at a higher rate and some of the larger fleets that are -- that are more sophisticated in this have increased their utilization, as well. So, really, it's cross our entire Ford Pro ecosystem and customer growth.

中小企業現在的車輛利用率更高，一些規模較大、技術更先進的車隊也提高了車輛利用率。所以，實際上，這關係到我們整個福特專業生態系統和客戶成長。

On the vehicle side, your question was the margin pressure. We're seeing it from a few of our import competitors on the heavy-duty side for vans and pickup. But they're made overseas. So we'll see how that all shakes out in the second half of the year, whether they can really continue to be that aggressive in the market with such substantial tariff bills.

就車輛方面而言，你的問題是利潤壓力。我們看到一些進口競爭對手在重型貨車和皮卡領域也出現了這種情況。但它們都是海外生產的。所以，我們將看看下半年情況會如何發展，看看在支付如此巨額關稅的情況下，他們是否真的能夠繼續在市場上保持如此激進的策略。

And of course, rental -- their replacement cycle is changing a little bit in rental. We're not very big in rental. What we do sell in rental is pretty profitable units like F-150. So that's a smaller effect for us than others.

當然，租賃業的情況也略有不同——租賃業的更換週期正在發生一些變化。我們租賃業務規模不大。我們出租的都是利潤相當高的車型，例如F-150。所以對我們來說，這種影響比對其他人小。

But those are the 2two subsegments that we're seeing a little pricing pressure. Personally, I have my doubts about how persistent the van and pickup will be, given that most of the competition is imported from Mexico products, which, obviously, the reality just changed.

但我們看到，這兩個細分市場正面臨一些價格壓力。就我個人而言，我對廂型車和皮卡的市場持久性持懷疑態度，因為大多數競爭對手都是從墨西哥進口的產品，而顯然，這種情況已經改變了。

Ryan Brinkman, J.P. Morgan.

Ryan Brinkman，摩根大通。

There was a reference to a Ford Credit earlier, in relation to tariffs. But I'd be interested to hear more about how Cathy and the team might be thinking about how the various potential impacts of tariffs on that side of the business plan, including on origination volume of SAAR declines on higher prices like you've insinuated, but, also, on the positive side, with regard to lease residual or collateral values, maybe even default rate if consumers have more equity in their vehicles.

之前曾提到福特信貸，與關稅有關。但我很想聽聽 Cathy 和她的團隊是如何考慮關稅對業務計劃這方面可能產生的各種影響的，包括像你暗示的那樣，價格上漲會導致 SAAR 下降，從而影響貸款發放量；但從積極方面來看，如果消費者在車輛中擁有更多權益，關稅對租賃殘值或抵押品價值的影響，甚至可能影響違約率。

How do you think these or other factors might play out? And are you looking at any scenarios where the net of them could prove positive for the credit side of the business, providing some offset to the headwind on the automotive side?

你認為這些或其他因素可能會如何發展？您是否考慮過任何可能對這些因素產生正面影響，從而對公司信貸業務造成一定抵消作用，以緩解汽車業務逆風的情況？

Yes. Thanks for the question. We've seen elevated auction prices already. And what's reflected, obviously, used across the industry, relatively low used vehicle stock.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我們已經看到拍賣價格上漲的情況出現了。很顯然，這反映在整個行業中，二手車庫存相對較低。

We're thinking that with the higher new vehicle prices as a result of tariffs, we thinks that the auction values, that could lend support in the near term. But that might be some muted, somewhat, by a slowdown in the economy in the second half.

我們認為，由於關稅導致新車價格上漲，拍賣價格可能會在短期內起到支撐作用。但下半年經濟放緩可能會在一定程度上削弱這種影響。

So we do see a plus and we see a minus, potentially, on overall auction values.

因此，我們看到拍賣總價值既有上升空間，也有下降空間。

In terms of consumer health, to date, as Jim mentioned, we've seen an increase in applications for longer-term financing. Obviously, the lower SAAR could put some contraction, in terms of overall contracts.

就消費者健康而言，正如吉姆所提到的，到目前為止，我們已經看到長期融資申請增加。顯然，較低的 SAAR 可能會導致整體合約數量出現萎縮。

But we see, right now, a relatively balanced picture. We have to wait to see what happens in the second half of the year vis-à-vis the economic strength of the economy.

但就目前來看，情況相對平衡。我們必須等到下半年才能看到經濟情勢的發展。

Very helpful. Then, just lastly, is there an update you can provide on your business in Europe, including what traction some of the Model e launches there might be having, relative to maybe rising competition from the Chinese automakers falling in competition from Tesla. And what progress you might be seeing on the restructuring program that you announced last fall?

很有幫助。最後，您能否提供一些關於您在歐洲的業務的最新信息，包括Model e在歐洲的上市情況，以及相對於中國汽車製造商日益激烈的競爭和特斯拉競爭減弱的情況，您覺得這些進展如何？您去年秋季宣布的重組計畫目前取得了哪些進展？

I realize you no longer report profit by geography, other than in China. But where would you say you are, in terms of the path to getting to where you need to be or where you would like to be, in terms of profitability in that part of the world?

我注意到，除中國以外，貴公司已不再按地區公佈利潤數據。但是，就您在世界那個地區的盈利能力而言，您認為自己距離達到您需要達到或想要達到的目標還有多遠呢？

We'll start with the reaction to the vehicle lines that you had talked about. We launched some of our electric vehicles this past year.

我們先從你剛才提到的車輛線條的反應開始說起。去年我們推出了一些電動車。

We just recently launched the Puma electric vehicle, which is off to a really good start.

我們最近推出了 Puma 電動車，目前銷售情況非常好。

Run rate of our commercial business as a whole and Europe is really strong. In fact, through the first quarter, we've increased our share by over 2.5 points.

我們整個商業業務以及歐洲市場的運作速度都非常強勁。事實上，在第一季度，我們的市佔率成長了超過 2.5 個百分點。

So as the leading commercial brand, we continued to perform very well there. We have a lot of flexibility in the market with ICE hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric across our lineup, which allows us to really react to the market that's going on over there.

因此，作為領先的商業品牌，我們在那裡繼續表現出色。我們在市場上擁有很大的靈活性，我們的產品線涵蓋了燃油混合動力、插電式混合動力和電動車，這使我們能夠真正對市場上的變化做出反應。

In terms of the overall business itself. It's running at a better rate. We've seen an increase. We have some headwinds in some of the industry, although we've offset with share. And we've had some just general exchange issues in the market, over there.

就整個業務而言。它的運行速度更快了。我們看到數量增加。雖然我們在部分行業面臨一些不利因素，但我們透過市佔率的成長抵消了這些不利因素。而且，那邊的市場也出現了一些普遍的匯率問題。

James Picariello, BNP Paribas.

詹姆斯·皮卡里洛，法國巴黎銀行。

Relative to your internal planning, what were the key factors that surprised you the most in the first quarter, relative to the company's expectation for breakeven EBIT?

相對於公司內部計劃，第一季哪些關鍵因素最令您感到意外，與公司預期的損益兩平息稅前利潤相比？

Sure. I would say that it was cost. We had planned that the cost was going to be significantly different than it was. We got a good surprise on warranty. That ended up being positive versus our plan.

當然。我認為是成本問題。我們原本預計成本會與實際成本有很大不同。我們在保固方面得到了一個驚喜。結果比我們預想的還要好。

And in fact, warranty was positive on a quarter-over-quarter basis, as well. So that was a big part of it.

事實上，保固業務環比也實現了正成長。所以這是其中一個重要原因。

We obviously had the offset of the $200 million in tariffs. And then our material costs also did better, including commodities.

我們顯然抵銷了2億美元的關稅。此外，包括大宗商品在內的材料成本也有所改善。

It was way up, with (technical difficulty) by a positive, year over year or quarter over quarter?

是大幅成長，（技術上難以確定）是年比還是季增？

Quarter over quarter, it was better. And it also was better versus our plan for the quarter.

與上一季相比，情況有所改善。而且也比我們本季的計畫好。

So when we guided breakeven, we had anticipated it to be worse than it was.

因此，在預測損益平衡點時，我們預期情況會比實際情況更糟。

Got it. And then, just on Model e performance, in particular, on a loss per vehicle basis -- because I think this is Model e's best quarter on record. We can see last year's $300 million in dealer stock adjustments didn't repeat.

知道了。然後，就Model e的業績而言，特別是以每輛車的虧損額來看——因為我認為這是Model e有史以來業績最好的一個季度。我們可以看到，去年經銷商庫存調整的 3 億美元並沒有重現。

But I assume a lot of this relative momentum attributed to the EVs you're selling in Europe. Can you just speak to that and just how you're thinking about the near term, since the full-year guide is pulled. Has Model e turned the corner here? And how is Ford handling Mach-E production in Mexico, with respect to tariffs?

但我認為這種相對成長勢頭很大程度上歸功於你們在歐洲銷售的電動車。鑑於全年業績指南已被撤回，您能否談談您對近期業績的看法？Model e 是否已經扭轉了局面？福特在墨西哥生產Mach-E車型時，是如何應對關稅問題的？

So Model e did have a great quarter. It was about 40% better on a quarter-over-quarter basis and, also, a year-over-year basis.

所以Model e本季表現出色。與上一季相比，成長了約 40%；與上年同期相比，成長了約 40%。

Now, that was driven by some positive pricing. Part of that had to do with our Q1 of 2024, when we had taken some significant pricing actions across our entire dealer inventory.

這主要是由於一些積極的定價策略所致。部分原因在於我們 2024 年第一季度，當時我們對所有經銷商庫存採取了一些重大的價格調整措施。

So in some ways, there was a positive beat, based on that. But we also saw some improvements in material costs, with some pull-aheads in material cost improvements that we were anticipating a bit later in the year.

所以從某種程度上來說，這算是一個正面的訊號。但我們也看到材料成本有所改善，一些材料成本改善的跡象提前出現，而我們原本預計這些改善會在今年稍後出現。

So as I said in my prepared remarks, we do think that this is going to be the best quarter of the year for Model e.

正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，我們認為這將是Model e今年表現最好的季度。

And just thoughts on Mach-E. Just, what's the planning for MACH-E production in Mexico? Is there any change, at all, to the plan? Or is it business as usual?

以及一些關於 Mach-E 的想法。那麼，墨西哥的 MACH-E 生產計劃是什麼？計劃有任何變動嗎？還是一切照舊？

It's business as usual. We do not plan on making any adjustments to lowering the production of vehicles doing very well, right now. We actually have a very low-day supply of the vehicle itself.

一切照常。目前，我們不打算對銷售量非常好的車型進行任何調整，以降低其產量。實際上，我們這款車的庫存量已經非常低了。

It's essential to our overall compliance, delivering compliance here. So it's doing well, and it's actually -- we've actually moved some of the products to Europe at a higher -- because of the higher run rate they're seeing, as well. So it's doing very well. No change planned.

確保合規是我們整體合規工作的首要任務。所以情況不錯，而且實際上——我們已經將一些產品以更高的價格轉移到歐洲——因為他們的運行速度也更高。所以它運行得非常好。暫無變更計劃。

It's interesting for me that we're in the fourth year of Mach-E and the sales continue to be so strong. That has not happened in the ICE business. We usually, by now, have aging.

令我感到有趣的是，Mach-E 已經上市四年了，銷售量依然如此強勁。這種情況在內燃機產業並沒有發生。到了現在，我們通常都會老化。

Now, the prices come down way down. But relative to others, Mach-E has held up very well as a product.

現在，價格已經大幅下降。但與其他產品相比，Mach-E 的表現一直非常出色。

We've invested both on the cost and the product appeal side. .

我們在成本控制和產品吸引力方面都進行了投入。。

Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

柯林‧蘭根，富國銀行。

Just want to clarify: the $2.5 billion at the tariff impact, the MSRP rebate that helps the parts, is that netted in the $2.5 billion? Or is that in the $1 billion, offset? Because the $1 billion, offset, sounded like more market factors that you were thinking about. .

我想澄清一下：關稅影響造成的 25 億美元損失，以及幫助零件的廠商建議零售價退稅，是否都包含在這 25 億美元之中？或者說，這筆錢包含在10億美元的抵銷額裡？因為那 10 億美元的抵銷聽起來更像是你所考慮的市場因素。。

It's in the $2.5 billion.

金額約25億美元。

Okay. And how should we think about that? In two years, is that enough time to get whatever risk is in there addressed? Or in two years, there's going to be a little bit of a hit that we should be thinking about as a risk, assuming tariffs stay where they are today?

好的。我們該如何看待這個問題？兩年時間足以解決其中存在的風險嗎？或者說，兩年後，如果關稅維持在目前的水平，我們應該把這視為一種風險，而屆時可能會受到一些衝擊？

It's a pretty dynamic situation. I think this is all really new for all of us.

情況瞬息萬變。我認為這對我們所有人來說都是全新的體驗。

And I think we we've been very clear with the government about the flexibility we need. And we've been very encouraged by them because these are huge numbers. $2.5 billion and $1.5 billion is still a big number, even though it may be lower than others.

我認為我們已經非常明確地向政府表達了我們需要的靈活性。我們從中備受鼓舞，因為這些都是非常龐大的數字。 25億美元和15億美元仍然是很大的數字，即使它們可能低於其他一些數字。

I think their approach is going to be -- they're going to watch this very carefully and adjust accordingly.

我認為他們的做法會是——他們會非常仔細地觀察事態發展，並做出相應的調整。

I don't think any of us would say we know exactly enough now that we can transition to a 10% or whatever the number is going to be. But I think they -- obviously, the government wants us to shift more parts to the US. So that's one thing.

我認為我們當中沒有人會說我們現在已經掌握了足夠的信息，可以過渡到 10% 或其他任何數字。但我認為他們——很明顯，政府希望我們把更多的零件轉移到美國。這是其中一件事。

And -- yes, from my perspective, we also we have USMCA coming up. So we have to go through that whole process. And I think we should just all expect to be a little bit patient during this time to see how these policies work out together.

是的，從我的角度來看，我們還有美墨加協定即將生效。所以我們必須走完整個流程。我認為在這段時間裡，我們都應該保持一點耐心，看看這些政策最終會如何共同發揮作用。

USMCA could be a substantial negotiation and a very important tool for the government and the industry to work to transition to more US-sourced parts. And that could change and have an iterative effect with the tariffs.

美墨加協定可能是一項意義重大的談判，也是政府和產業共同努力向更多美國本土零件過渡的重要工具。而這種情況可能會改變，並隨著關稅的調整產生連鎖反應。

So at this point, I would say too early to tell to answer your question about whether it's enough time or not.

所以現在回答你關於時間是否足夠的問題還為時過早。

And just lastly -- just any thoughts on the cash impact of the tariffs? Should we think of the $1.5 billion as all cash? Are there any other factors we should be thinking about like working capital or CapEx needs that might result in, maybe, cash being better or worse than the EBIT impact?

最後，您對關稅對現金流的影響有什麼看法？我們應該把這15億美元全部視為現金嗎？還有其他因素需要考慮嗎，例如營運資金或資本支出需求，這些因素可能會導致現金流量比息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 的影響更好或更差？

Yeah. At this point, we're estimating that they will be approximately equal for cash. We're assuming that they would happen and settle within the quarter.

是的。目前我們估計，它們的現金價值大致相等。我們假設這些事件會在本季發生並且解決。

So in a case where there's a cash that's paid out and there's an offset, we're assuming it would happen in the quarter.

因此，如果支付了現金並且存在抵消，我們假設這種情況會在本季發生。

There is a CapEx impact. We do have some product, some equipment that we've already ordered that's going to be coming in from overseas. And we do think that we will have an impact on our CapEx, as a result.

會對資本支出產生影響。我們確實有一些產品，一些我們已經訂購的設備，將會從海外運來。因此，我們認為這將對我們的資本支出產生影響。

Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli，TD Cowen。

Great. Just two quick ones for me. I thank you for all the detail today.

偉大的。我只需要回答兩個問題。非常感謝您今天提供的所有細節。

If you were to see industry pricing move higher a bit beyond what you've embedded in the $1.5 billion net tariff, I'm just curious whether you would generally prioritize gaining some market share due to your strong US position or whether you would look to participate in some of that price increases?

如果行業定價上漲幅度超過您已納入 15 億美元淨關稅的範圍，我很好奇您是否會優先考慮利用您在美國強大的市場地位來獲取一些市場份額，還是會考慮參與到部分價格上漲中來？

And just a second quick question, maybe for Jim. How should we be thinking about Ford's plans for Level 3 autonomy? Any changes we should think about, just given the changes in the electrical architecture rollout?

還有一個小問題，可能問吉姆。我們該如何看待福特的L3級自動駕駛計畫？考慮到電氣架構部署方面的變化，我們是否應該考慮進行任何更改？

Itay. It's Andrew. I'll take the first part.

義大利.是安德魯。我來回答第一部分。

We're really looking at this through the lens that you just described, whether it be an opportunity to take additional pricing if that happens or being opportunistic to increase our market share. That's where as we look at the vehicle segments, the vehicle lines.

我們確實是按照您剛才描述的角度來看待這件事的，無論是如果這種情況發生，這是一個獲得額外定價的機會，還是一個抓住機會增加市場份額的機會。這就是我們審視車輛細分市場、車輛系列的地方。

We're going to look vehicle by vehicle across our channels, across our customer segments to make sure that if we're opportunistic, it actually makes sense for us, from a profit perspective.

我們將逐一管道、逐一客戶群地進行車輛分析，以確保如果我們採取機會主義策略，從利潤的角度來看，這對我們來說是有意義的。

And also -- and if it doesn't, then we would look to potentially take additional pricing in the market. So we have to react to what we see in the market. And those are part of the scenario planning that we've described.

而且——如果這樣不行，那麼我們可能會考慮在市場上進行額外的定價。所以我們必須對市場上的情況做出反應。這些都是我們所描述的情境規劃的一部分。

At the end of the quarter, we already launched BlueCruise 1.4 and 1.5. It's doing better than we thought, to be frank.

季度末，我們已經推出了 BlueCruise 1.4 和 1.5 版本。坦白說，它的表現比我們預想的還要好。

Hands-free is up 15%, in terms of miles driven. So customers are really getting used to using BlueCruise. I think we're above 370 million miles now. I think that's far above almost all of our major competitors.

以行駛里程計算，免持駕駛增加了 15%。所以客戶們真的越來越習慣使用BlueCruise了。我想我們現在已經超過3.7億英里了。我認為這遠高於我們幾乎所有主要競爭對手。

We are on track in Level 3. And we're evaluating Level 4, other companies' Level 4. I won't go into any more detail than that.

我們目前正按計畫推進三級防控工作。我們正在評估 4 級水平，以及其他公司的 4 級水平。我不會透露更多細節。

But I think we're -- we're on track on our ADAS. I would describe our BlueCruise product is very competitive, very compelling, not a lot of disengagements now -- do lane changes regularly -- the use of it is really escalating.

但我認為我們的ADAS專案進展順利。我會說我們的 BlueCruise 產品非常有競爭力，非常有吸引力，現在很少用戶放棄使用——經常變換車道——它的使用率正在迅速上升。

And we're now embedding it in our vehicle specifications for a different series. So it's becoming more popular.

我們現在正將其融入另一系列車型的規格中。所以它越來越受歡迎了。

And for the renewals, we've come up with a really effective way to reward our dealers for selling renewals as well.

對於續訂，我們也想出了一個非常有效的方法來獎勵銷售續訂的經銷商。

So that's good shape. I would just say just the business operations behind selling ADAS is getting healthier and the use of the system is on track. And I would say Level 3 is also on track.

所以情況不錯。我只想說，ADAS銷售背後的業務運作越來越健康，系統的使用也步入正軌。我認為第三階段也進展順利。

Obviously, it's going to be a cost and timing. I don't think we're going to be the first for high-speed highway. But I think we'll the best. And that will be a totally different internally-sourced product versus the BlueCruise effort, which was very dependent on suppliers.

顯然，這需要考慮成本和時間。我不認為我們會是第一個修建高速公路的國家。但我認為我們會做到最好。這將是一款完全不同的內部採購產品，與 BlueCruise 的產品截然不同，BlueCruise 的產品非常依賴供應商。

The Level 3 team is quite different than the BlueCruise. And we want to use that as a moment to really differentiate the brand.

Level 3 團隊與 BlueCruise 團隊截然不同。我們希望藉此機會真正打造一個與眾不同的品牌。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

福特汽車公司2025年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。