福特汽車 (F) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. My name is Layla, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好。我叫萊拉，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎您參加福特汽車公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資人關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。

Thank you, Layla. Welcome to Ford Motor Company's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; and John Lawler, Vice Chair and CFO. Also joining us today is Cathy O'Callaghan, CEO of Ford Credit.

謝謝你，萊拉。歡迎參加福特汽車公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長吉姆法利 (Jim Farley)；以及副主席兼財務長約翰·勞勒 (John Lawler)。今天加入我們的還有福特信貸執行長凱西·奧卡拉漢 (Cathy O'Callaghan)。

Today's discussions include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論包括一些非 GAAP 參考資料。這些數據與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計準則衡量標準進行了調整。您可以在股東.福特.com 上找到該簡報以及我們其餘的收益資料和其他重要內容。

Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 20. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis.

我們的討論還包括有關我們期望的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。第 20 頁列出了可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素。公司息稅前利潤、每股盈餘和自由現金流均經過調整。

Lastly, I'd like to call out a key near-term IR engagement. On November 20, John Lawler, Vice Chair and CFO; and Sherry House, VP Finance, will participate in a fireside chat with Dan Levy at the Barclays Global Automotive and Mobility Tech Conference in New York. Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.

最後，我想指出近期重要的投資人關係參與。 11 月 20 日，副主席兼財務長 John Lawler；財務副總裁 Sherry House 將參加在紐約舉行的巴克萊全球汽車和行動技術會議上與 Dan Levy 的爐邊對話。現在我將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Lynn. Hi, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I want to start by thanking our global team for their commitment to Ford+ and to adding and creating value for all of our shareholders. I'd like to touch on an overview of our strategy and why we believe we're so well positioned versus the competitors in key areas, and John will take you through the Q3 results and full year outlook.

謝謝，林恩。大家好，感謝您今天加入我們。首先，我要感謝我們的全球團隊對福特+的承諾，以及為我們所有股東增加和創造價值的承諾。我想概述我們的策略，以及為什麼我們相信我們在關鍵領域與競爭對手相比處於如此有利的地位，約翰將帶您了解第三季的業績和全年展望。

Several years ago, we restructured our overseas operations and our global footprint is a key strength for Ford. We restructured in Europe, South America, India, and China. Collectively, in 2018, those regions were losing $2.2 billion and burned $3.4 billion in cash. Now all of those regions are collectively profitable. We're going to continue to stay laser-focused on cost and getting leaner as a company, but our team won't be distracted by major international restructuring facing other OEMs, especially in China.

幾年前，我們重組了海外業務，全球足跡是福特的關鍵優勢。我們在歐洲、南美、印度和中國進行了重組。 2018 年，這些地區總共損失了 22 億美元，燒掉了 34 億美元現金。現在所有這些地區都獲利了。作為一家公司，我們將繼續高度關注成本並變得更加精簡，但我們的團隊不會因其他原始設備製造商（尤其是中國的原始設備製造商）面臨的重大國際重組而分心。

And speaking of China, we've gone asset-light for a couple of years, as we've told you. We have strong JV partners and we have a growing export business. In fact, China and its exports are now contributing over $600 million to the company's EBIT this year. Another area of strength is our EV strategy, which I wouldn't trade for any of our competitors. We moved early.

說到中國，正如我們告訴你們的那樣，我們已經輕資產化了幾年。我們擁有強大的合資夥伴，並且我們的出口業務不斷成長。事實上，中國及其出口今年為該公司的息稅前利潤貢獻了超過 6 億美元。我們的另一個優勢領域是電動車策略，我不會用它來換取我們的任何競爭對手。我們搬得很早。

We've learned a lot on Gen 1 from our customers, the global market dynamics and what it requires to be fit to compete. No doubt there's a global price war and it's fueled by overcapacity, a flood of new EV nameplates and massive compliance pressure.

我們從客戶那裡學到了很多關於第一代的知識、全球市場動態以及競爭所需的知識。毫無疑問，全球價格戰正在爆發，而產能過剩、大量新電動車品牌和巨大的合規壓力加劇了價格戰。

In our home market in the U.S., no OEM is immune. Since Q1 of last year, EV volumes have grown 35% while revenues in total are flat at $14 billion. That means the progress on volume has been fully offset by prices. We're expecting roughly 150 new EV nameplates to hit North America by the end of 2026. And some of our competitors are already resulting -- resorting to very aggressive lease tactics even on their brand-new products, which creates huge residual risk and overhang and brand damage.

在我們的美國本土市場，沒有一家 OEM 能夠倖免。自去年第一季以來，電動車銷量成長了 35%，而總收入則持平於 140 億美元。這意味著成交量的成長已完全被價格所抵消。我們預計到2026 年底，大約有150 輛新電動車將登陸北美。巨大的剩餘風險和懸而未決和品牌損害。

What we're doing about these market dynamics, well, we're focused on cost. We've already reduced $1 billion in our EV costs this year. We remade our battery footprint. We trimmed our capacity by 35%, in line with where we think the market will be in a few years. We accelerated the mix of our batteries, emphasizing LFP.

我們針對這些市場動態所做的工作，重點是成本。今年我們已經減少了 10 億美元的電動車成本。我們重新設計了電池足跡。我們將產能削減了 35%，這與我們認為幾年後的市場狀況一致。我們加速了電池的混合，強調磷酸鋰鐵。

We'll be the first one to manufacture in the U.S., and that battery will leverage the IRA production tax credit. We're shifting new launches, focused on getting the products we do have in our EV portfolio profitable within the first 12 months. And we're deep into the design and engineering of our next-generation vehicles. Boy, are we excited about these coming out in the next few years.

我們將成為第一個在美國製造的電池，並且該電池將利用 IRA 生產稅收抵免。我們正在調整新產品的發布方向，重點是讓電動車產品組合中現有的產品在前 12 個月內獲利。我們正在深入研究下一代車輛的設計和工程。天哪，我們對未來幾年這些產品的推出感到興奮嗎？

In 40 years in the industry, I've seen a lot of game-changer products. But the midsized electric pickup designed by our California team has got to be one of the most exciting. It's an incredible package in consumer technology for a segment we know well. It matches the cost structure of any Chinese auto manufacturer building in Mexico in the future. How do we know that?

在這個產業的 40 年裡，我看過很多改變遊戲規則的產品。但我們加州團隊設計的中型電動皮卡一定是最令人興奮的之一。對於我們熟悉的細分市場來說，這是一個令人難以置信的消費科技組合。它與未來任何中國汽車製造商在墨西哥建廠的成本結構相符。我們怎麼知道這一點？

Because 60% of the BOM has already been quoted.

因為60%的BOM已經被報價了。

Another advantage for us, obviously, is Ford Pro. It's unique because we're combining product strength with software and repair services all linked together. Don't be confused by other press releases on the ground game in the commercial market because what our customers see is that we have reached a leading product portfolio, an incredible software portfolio, as well as gaining strength in our repair services, all of that driving sticky reoccurring high-margin revenues. It turns out in Pro, our dealer network is one of our key advantages. In the U.S., we have the largest commercial vehicle network, and that's essential to drive those attach rates to services.

顯然，我們的另一個優勢是福特 Pro。它的獨特之處在於我們將產品優勢與軟體和維修服務結合在一起。不要被商業市場上的其他新聞稿所迷惑，因為我們的客戶看到的是我們已經達到了領先的產品組合、令人難以置信的軟體組合，以及我們的維修服務實力不斷增強，所有這些推動粘性經常性高利潤收入。事實證明，在 Pro 中，我們的經銷商網路是我們的關鍵優勢之一。在美國，我們擁有最大的商用車輛網絡，這對於提高服務附加費率至關重要。

And our software is also a competitive advantage. Our paid subscriptions delivered a growth of 50% in revenue, 30% just this quarter, and our gross margins are over 50%. There's incredible upside at Ford for our software to grow our installed base, attach rates and ARPU. Another strength is our diverse powertrain lineup. For example, in the U.S., the hybrid pickup sales at Ford have more than doubled in the past two years.

而我們的軟體也是一個競爭優勢。我們的付費訂閱收入成長了 50%，光是本季就成長了 30%，毛利率超過 50%。福特的軟體在擴大我們的安裝基礎、附加率和 ARPU 方面具有令人難以置信的優勢。另一個優勢是我們多樣化的動力總成陣容。例如，在美國，福特的混合動力皮卡銷量在過去兩年增長了一倍多。

We now have a nearly 80% market share of hybrid pickups. A lot of our companies shunned hybrids and now they're scrambling, but it's going to take them years to catch up.

我們現在擁有混合動力皮卡近80%的市佔率。我們的許多公司都迴避混合動力，現在他們正在爭先恐後，但他們需要數年時間才能迎頭趕上。

Interestingly, in our home market, Ford is the #1 ICE brand, the #2 EV brand, and the #3 hybrid brand. Taking a step back, clearly, our strategic advantages are not falling to the bottom line the way they should. Costs, especially warranty, has held back our earnings power, but as we bend that curve, there is significant financial upside for investors. By design, 70% of the bonuses for our managers is tied to cost and quality, and more than half of our long-term incentives as leaders is tied to TSR.

有趣的是，在我們的國內市場，福特是排名第一的 ICE 品牌、排名第二的 EV 品牌和排名第三的混合動力品牌。退一步說，顯然，我們的戰略優勢並沒有像應有的下降到底線。成本，尤其是保固成本，抑制了我們的獲利能力，但當我們彎曲這條曲線時，投資者將獲得顯著的財務上行空間。按照設計，我們經理 70% 的獎金與成本和品質掛鉤，而我們作為領導者的長期激勵措施有一半以上與股東總回報掛鉤。

Let me double-click on the EV business. We applied lessons really early that we learned on Mustang Mach-E across our lineup. In the last 24 months, we've reduced the Mustang Mach-E's cost by $5,000 per unit. As you know, Mach-E is second to Model Y in the segment for sales and transaction prices despite being in the market now for several years. And we continue to break down the friction or barriers to adoption for mainstream ICE customers.

讓我雙擊電動車業務。我們很早就應用了在 Mustang Mach-E 上學到的經驗教訓。在過去 24 個月中，我們將 Mustang Mach-E 的每台成本降低了 5,000 美元。如你所知，儘管 Mach-E 已經上市多年，但在銷售和交易價格方面仍僅次於 Model Y。我們將繼續消除主流 ICE 客戶採用的摩擦或障礙。

We're the first to join Tesla Supercharger network, and we'll be shipping about 100,000 adapters by the end of this year.

我們是第一家加入 Tesla Supercharger 網路的公司，到今年年底我們將出貨約 10 萬個轉接器。

We were the first to offer complementary home charging and installation. We call it the Ford Power Promise. And we've seen a huge uptick in interest on our website from the Power Promise. But our dealers are also becoming a competitive advantage for mainstream customers. Take, for example, Tim Hovik and his team at San Tan Ford in Arizona.

我們是第一家提供免費家庭充電和安裝服務的公司。我們稱之為福特動力承諾。我們發現人們對我們網站上的 Power Promise 的興趣大幅上升。但我們的經銷商也正在成為主流客戶的競爭優勢。以蒂姆·霍維克 (Tim Hovik) 和他在亞利桑那州聖譚福特 (San Tan Ford) 的團隊為例。

In the quarter, one of the months, they sold 137 electric vehicles, and Arizona is not a ZEV state. These are incremental sales with solid gross profits for the dealers. And we are building on that know-how for the last couple of years in scaling and being #2 across our whole U.S. dealer network.

在本季（其中一個月）中，他們售出了 137 輛電動車，而亞利桑那州不是 ZEV 州。這些都是增量銷售，為經銷商帶來了穩定的毛利。我們正在利用過去幾年的專業知識來擴大規模，並在整個美國經銷商網路中排名第二。

All of our 3,000 dealers are primed to sell EVs now. We have 7,000 trained EV specialists and 14,000 dealership hours have been spent on EVs now. Our dealer network has already installed 800 fast chargers across the U.S. and Canada and many more are on the way. Next year, we expect to improve the trajectory of Model e's business through cost, scaling, and we're not trading wooden nickels inside the company for emissions credit

我們所有的 3,000 家經銷商現在都準備好要銷售電動車了。我們擁有 7,000 名經過培訓的電動車專家，目前已在電動車上花費了 14,000 個經銷商時間。我們的經銷商網路已在美國和加拿大安裝了 800 個快速充電器，還有更多充電器正在安裝中。明年，我們預計將透過成本、規模化來改善 Model e 的業務軌跡，而且我們不會在公司內部用木鎳幣換取排放信用

That won't change the economics of our EV vehicles and the company as a whole.

這不會改變我們電動車和整個公司的經濟效益。

Turning to Pro. We're the first OEM to segment our customers between retail and commercial. And it starts by having a great product lineup and leaning into the future. About 9% of Transit sales are now electric vehicles in the quarter. That's up 1.5 percentage points from a year ago.

轉向專業版。我們是第一家將客戶分為零售和商業客戶的原始設備製造商。首先是擁有強大的產品陣容並面向未來。本季電動車約佔 Transit 銷量的 9%。比一年前增加了 1.5 個百分點。

Our Super Duty has more variance than any other OEM, and we're bundling vehicles and services to provide unique value for our customers. What I mean by that is about 13% of our EBIT for Pro now comes from repair services or software. We think that will grow to about 20% by 2026.

我們的 Super Duty 比任何其他 OEM 都有更多的差異，我們將車輛和服務捆綁在一起，為我們的客戶提供獨特的價值。我的意思是，我們的 Pro 息稅前利潤現在大約有 13% 來自維修服務或軟體。我們認為到 2026 年這一比例將增長至 20% 左右。

We have the largest service network in North America. We're on track this year to add over 4,000 commercial service bays and 2,500 Pro mobile service units. That, by the way, is up 50% year-over-year. Our mobile repair orders are up 60% year-over-year and now almost 1 out of 10 Pro repair orders is done by a mobile service truck. Globally, Ford Pro Intelligence subscriptions rose 30% in the quarter.

我們擁有北美最大的服務網絡。今年我們預計將增加 4,000 多個商業服務站和 2,500 個專業行動服務單位。順便說一下，這一數字年增了 50%。我們的行動維修訂單年增 60%，現在幾乎十分之一的 Pro 維修訂單是由行動服務卡車完成的。在全球範圍內，福特 Pro Intelligence 訂閱量本季成長了 30%。

We now have about 630,000 subscriptions. As I said, that's a revenue growth of 50%.

我們現在有大約 63 萬訂閱者。正如我所說，收入增長了 50%。

We're adding more and more product functionality and features that third-party software companies can offer because it's tied to the product, including remote vehicle lock and unlock, limits to our top speed and acceleration. Yes, we are seeing more pricing pressure on Pro in the second half, but that was consistent with our original guidance for the year. Demand is also in line with our expectations. We're seeing pent-up demand for Super Duty cabin chassis and Transit wagons.

我們正在添加越來越多的第三方軟體公司可以提供的產品功能和特性，因為它與產品相關，包括遠端車輛鎖定和解鎖，限制我們的最高速度和加速。是的，我們看到下半年 Pro 版面臨更大的定價壓力，但這與我們今年最初的指導一致。需求也符合我們的預期。我們看到對超級重型客艙底盤和運輸貨車的被壓抑的需求。

And then Ford Blue. Let me double-click for a second on that business. First, we have an incredibly fresh lineup across the globe and we're going to add to that. We have four key U.S. launches on deck.

然後是福特藍。讓我雙擊該業務。首先，我們在全球擁有令人難以置信的新鮮陣容，我們將對此進行補充。我們已準備好在美國推出四項重要產品。

The Maverick and Bronco will be launching in the fourth quarter with new derivatives and a fresh new product, and we have an all-new Expedition, Navigator launching early next year. In Q3 in the U.S., our share was up 40 basis points to 12.6%. Our ATPs in September were in line with the industry, and the Ford brand continues to transact higher than the average nonpremium brands.

Maverick 和 Bronco 將於第四季推出新衍生品和全新產品，我們也將在明年初推出全新 Expedition、Navigator。第三季度，我們在美國的市佔率上升了 40 個基點，達到 12.6%。我們 9 月的 ATP 與業界一致，福特品牌的交易量持續高於非高端品牌的平均水準。

Now let me unpack the inventory. We ended the quarter with 91 days of gross stock and 68 days of dealer stock. That's a little higher than our target range of 50 to 60 days, but the mix is really good. Now we're intentionally holding extra inventory through the year-end to protect sales during the Q1 launch activities that I mentioned. And adjusting for that, we're right in the target range for us as we start 2025 from an inventory standpoint.

現在讓我打開庫存。本季結束時，我們的總庫存為 91 天，經銷商庫存為 68 天。這比我們 50 到 60 天的目標範圍略高，但這個組合確實很好。現在，我們有意在年底保留額外庫存，以保護我提到的第一季發布活動期間的銷售。對此進行調整後，從庫存的角度來看，從 2025 年開始，我們正處於目標範圍內。

The biggest opportunity for the company clearly is cost and warranty. We're attacking both of these and we will realize the upside. The biggest opportunity is warranty. And here's some evidence of things on the input metrics side that are really improving. Our 3 MIS or 3 months in service quality is getting a lot better, a 31% increase in the last three years.

該公司最大的機會顯然是成本和保固。我們正在攻擊這兩個方面，我們將意識到其好處。最大的機會是保固。以下是輸入指標方面確實有所改善的一些證據。我們的 3 MIS 或 3 個月的服務品質越來越好，在過去三年中提高了 31%。

This year, the high-volume vehicle lines like F-150 and Escape had huge launches and really had no virtually no warranty spike. J.D. Powers typically sees a 92% increase in defects during a launch.

今年，F-150 和 Escape 等大批量生產的汽車系列進行了大規模發布，並且實際上沒有保固高峰。 J.D. Powers 通常會發現在發布期間缺陷會增加 92%。

Our launch production losses have also been cut in half from the last year, and these are very large-scale launches like F-150 and Explorer. Another key improvement that we're seeing is our ability to OTA and improve our vehicles in the field. We've updated four million vehicles at Ford this year and 20 million total since we started doing OTAs. We can now update 30 different vehicle modules, well beyond the sync and infotainment modules. The OTAs, on average, save our customers 5 to 6 days waiting for repairs and, of course, it lowers our cost of warranty.

我們的發射生產損失也比去年減少了一半，而且都是像 F-150 和 Explorer 這樣的大規模發射。我們看到的另一個關鍵改進是我們的 OTA 和現場改進車輛的能力。今年我們已經更新了福特 400 萬輛汽車，自從我們開始進行 OTA 以來，我們已經更新了 2000 萬輛汽車。我們現在可以更新 30 個不同的車輛模組，遠遠超出同步和資訊娛樂模組。 OTA 平均可以為我們的客戶節省 5 到 6 天的維修等待時間，當然，它還降低了我們的保固成本。

All improvements to warranty will take time to reduce our warranty expense, maybe up to 18 months, but we're moving the needle on all the inputs.

保固的所有改進都需要時間來減少我們的保固費用，可能長達 18 個月，但我們正在對所有投入進行改進。

Taking a step back, I believe we're in a very strong competitive position. We have a lean and profitable international business with no distractions. We have a fresh and appealing lineup which will get even fresher. We have a strong and diversified powertrain strategy that gives customers choice and gives us the flexibility and reach. We're already on our second generation of electric vehicles.

退一步說，我相信我們處於非常強大的競爭地位。我們擁有精幹且獲利的國際業務，不受干擾。我們有一個新鮮而有吸引力的陣容，而且會變得更加新鮮。我們擁有強大且多元化的動力系統策略，為客戶提供選擇，並為我們提供靈活性和影響力。我們已經在開發第二代電動車。

They'll be launching in the next couple of years. We'll reduce the losses short term on our Gen 1 products and set us up to be a global competitor in the long term.

他們將在未來幾年內推出。我們將在短期內減少第一代產品的損失，並從長遠來看使我們成為全球競爭對手。

We have a vibrant growing software and repair business for Pro, and Pro is clearly a strategic advantage for the company. We're going to keep doing the hard yards to capture the tremendous upside in cost and warranty defects present to us, and we're going to bring it home for our valued investors. John?

我們的 Pro 軟體和維修業務正在蓬勃發展，而 Pro 顯然是公司的策略優勢。我們將繼續努力，以捕捉我們面臨的成本和保固缺陷方面的巨大優勢，並將其帶回家給我們尊貴的投資者。約翰？

Thanks, Jim. In the third quarter, wholesales were flat while revenue grew by 5% to over $46 billion. That's our tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth. This is supported by our compelling product lineup offering, freedom of choice to both our retail and commercial customers. The quarter benefited from strong truck sales, including hybrids as well as the launch of the all-new Ford Explorer and Lincoln Aviator.

謝謝，吉姆。第三季批發額持平，而營收成長 5%，超過 460 億美元。這是我們連續第十個季度營收年增。這得歸功於我們引人注目的產品系列以及零售和商業客戶的選擇自由。該季度受益於卡車銷售強勁，包括混合動力車以及全新福特探索者和林肯飛行員的推出。

We delivered $2.6 billion in adjusted EBIT with a margin of 5.5%, up 50 basis points from a year ago. The profit improvement was driven by higher volume and favorable mix, partially offset by expected EV pricing pressures and adverse exchange. Overall, costs were lower in the quarter. I have great confidence in today's business and the changes that are underway. Several years ago, we proactively restructured our global product lineup and tailored it to focus on customer segments we know best and lead in, which has driven consistent top line growth.

我們實現調整後息稅前利潤 26 億美元，利潤率為 5.5%，比去年同期成長 50 個基點。利潤的改善是由銷量增加和有利的組合推動的，但部分被預期的電動車定價壓力和不利的匯率所抵消。整體而言，本季成本較低。我對今天的業務和正在發生的變化充滿信心。幾年前，我們主動重組了我們的全球產品陣容，並對其進行了定制，以專注於我們最了解和領先的客戶群，這推動了營收的持續成長。

We're also slowly but surely improving our industrial system and shedding behaviors that have held us back in the past. And our free cash flow is stronger and more consistent than just a few years ago, all evidence that our Ford+ plan is working. Adjusted free cash flow was $3.2 billion in the quarter and $5.9 billion year-to-date with cash conversion of 74%, well above our targeted range of 50% to 60%. Our balance sheet remains strong with almost $28 billion in cash and $46 billion in liquidity. We continue to believe that it is prudent to have extra cash on hand during this unprecedented time in this industry that provides us flexibility to invest in accretive growth, execute strategic build-partner-buy opportunities and maintain financial flexibility during the next economic cycle.

我們也在緩慢但堅定地改善我們的工業體系，並擺脫過去阻礙我們發展的行為。我們的自由現金流比幾年前更強大、更穩定，所有證據都表明我們的福特+計畫正在發揮作用。本季調整後自由現金流為 32 億美元，年初至今為 59 億美元，現金轉換率為 74%，遠高於我們 50% 至 60% 的目標範圍。我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，擁有近 280 億美元的現金和 460 億美元的流動資金。我們仍然認為，在這個行業前所未有的時期，手頭持有額外現金是謹慎的做法，這使我們能夠靈活地投資於增值增長、執行戰略性建立合作夥伴購買機會並在下一個經濟週期保持財務靈活性。

I'm also pleased to announce that we declared our fourth quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share payable on December 2 to shareholders of record on November 7. We target to return 40% to 50% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders. Annually and including today's announcement have paid out over $10 billion to shareholders since the beginning of 2022. Now let me turn to our segments. Ford Pro delivered close to $16 billion of revenue in the quarter, up 13%, another quarter of growth.

我還很高興地宣布，我們宣布將於12 月2 日向11 月7 日登記在冊的股東派發每股0.15 美元的第四季度定期股息。流返還給股東。自 2022 年初以來，每年（包括今天的公告）向股東支付的金額超過 100 億美元。 Ford Pro 本季營收接近 160 億美元，成長 13%，又一個季度實現成長。

Wholesales were up 9% aided by the launch of the all-new 1-ton Transit Custom in Europe and robust demand for Super Duty and 2-ton Transit vans. EBIT of $1.8 billion was up year-over-year with a healthy margin of 11.6%. Ford Pro continues to be our prototype for sticky, high-margin noncyclical revenue. Paid subscriptions, attach rate, and monthly ARPU were up in the quarter. Pro's results continued to demonstrate the consistency and resiliency of this higher-margin growth business, underscored by their year-to-date EBIT margin performance of 14.6%, in line with our long-term target.

由於在歐洲推出全新 1 噸 Transit Custom 以及對 Super Duty 和 2 噸 Transit 貨車的強勁需求，批發銷量成長了 9%。息稅前利潤達 18 億美元，年增 11.6%。福特 Pro 仍然是我們黏性、高利潤非週期性收入的原型。本季付費訂閱量、附加費率和每月 ARPU 均有所上升。 Pro 的表現繼續證明了這一利潤率較高的成長業務的一致性和彈性，今年迄今 14.6% 的息稅前利潤率表現凸顯了這一點，符合我們的長期目標。

Ford Model e generated a loss of $1.2 billion. We delivered $500 million of year-over-year cost improvement, which was offset by industry pricing pressures.

福特 Model e 虧損 12 億美元。我們實現了 5 億美元的年成本改善，但這一成本被行業定價壓力所抵消。

Global wholesales were down 11%, reflecting our focus on yield management and balancing dealer inventory in North America, offset partially by the launch of the all-new Explorer EV in Europe. Our team is focused on delivering further cost reductions, optimizing the Gen 1 market equation and driving capital efficiencies, helping to improve our profit outlook as we head into 2025. Ford Blue revenue was up 3% in the quarter while wholesales were down 2%, driven by discontinued low-margin ICE passenger vehicles. Although overall volume was down, North America volume was up 8%, driven by key nameplates like F-150 and Ranger. EBIT of $1.6 billion and margin of 6.2% were both down year-over-year due to adverse exchange and higher manufacturing costs, offset partially by lower warranty expense and higher net pricing.

全球批發量下降了 11%，反映出我們對北美地區產量管理和平衡經銷商庫存的關注，但部分被歐洲推出的全新 Explorer EV 所抵消。我們的團隊專注於進一步降低成本、優化第一代市場方程式並提高資本效率，幫助改善我們進入 2025 年的利潤前景。內燃機乘用車驅動。儘管整體銷量下降，但在 F-150 和 Ranger 等關鍵品牌的推動下，北美銷量成長了 8%。由於匯率不利和製造成本上升，息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 為 16 億美元，利潤率為 6.2%，均同比下降，但保固費用下降和淨定價上升部分抵消了這一影響。

Hybrid sales up 30% in the quarter, continued to shine, and our global hybrid mix is still on pace to approach 9% by year-end, up over 2 points year-over-year with more products on the way. Ford Credit generated EBT of $544 million, up $186 million year-over-year, driven by an improvement in financing margin and higher receivables. Auction values declined 1% and lease return rates continue to normalize from historic lows. We continue to originate a high-quality book with U.S. retail and lease FICO score, again, exceeding 750 for the quarter.

本季混合動力產品銷售成長 30%，持續表現出色，到年底我們的全球混合動力產品銷售量仍有望接近 9%，年成長超過 2 個百分點，更多產品即將上市。在融資利潤率改善和應收帳款增加的推動下，福特信貸實現息稅前利潤 5.44 億美元，年增 1.86 億美元。拍賣價格下降 1%，租賃回報率繼續從歷史低點恢復正常。我們繼續創作一本高品質的圖書，本季美國零售和租賃 FICO 評分再次超過 750。

Our exposure to EV residual risk is low, with EVs representing less than 10% of our lease portfolio in the U.S. So let's turn to our outlook. When we began the year, we expected full year company adjusted EBIT of $10 billion to $12 billion. Since then, our product portfolio has exceeded our expectations, delivering favorable market factors, including mix through the first 9 months of the year, and we expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter. This speaks to the strength of our key nameplates and the resilience of our commercial business at Ford Pro.

我們面臨的電動車殘餘風險較低，電動車占我們在美國租賃投資組合的比例不到 10%。年初時，我們預計公司全年調整後息稅前利潤為 100 億美元至 120 億美元。自那時起，我們的產品組合超出了我們的預期，帶來了有利的市場因素，包括今年前 9 個月的混合情況，我們預計這一趨勢將在第四季度繼續下去。這證明了我們主要品牌的實力以及福特 Pro 商業業務的彈性。

We are also on track to deliver $2 billion of cost efficiencies within our industrial platform, offsetting expected higher labor and product refresh costs for the year. However, two gating factors keep us from a record adjusted EBIT this year: higher-than-expected warranty costs and the impact of inflation at our JV, Ford Otosan in Turkey, which increases the material cost of Transit vans sold in Europe. While inflationary pressures in Turkey is outside of our control, increased warranty costs are within our control. We now expect full year company adjusted EBIT of about $10 billion, which includes lower-than-planned volume in the second half for Ford Pro and Ford Blue due to supplier disruptions. In general, we see supply and demand for vehicles in balance.

我們也預計在我們的工業平台內實現 20 億美元的成本效率，抵消今年預期更高的勞動力和產品更新成本。然而，有兩個限制因素使我們今年的調整後息稅前利潤未能達到創紀錄的水平：高於預期的保固成本以及我們土耳其合資企業Ford Otosan 的通貨膨脹影響，這增加了在歐洲銷售的運輸貨車的材料成本。雖然土耳其的通膨壓力超出了我們的控制範圍，但保固成本的增加卻在我們的控制範圍內。我們現在預計全年公司調整後息稅前利潤約為 100 億美元，其中包括由於供應商中斷而導致福特 Pro 和福特 Blue 下半年銷售低於計劃。整體而言，我們認為車輛供需平衡。

We continue to expect adjusted free cash flow of $7.5 billion to $8.5 billion with CapEx between $8 billion to $8.5 billion. Our outlook for '24 assumes a flat to slightly higher SAAR in both the U.S. and Europe. Our planning assumptions for the U.S. is 16 million to 16.5 million units.

我們仍預期調整後的自由現金流為 75 億美元至 85 億美元，資本支出為 80 億美元至 85 億美元。我們對 24 年的展望假設美國和歐洲的 SAAR 持平或略高。我們對美國的規劃假設是 1,600 萬到 1,650 萬台。

Full year of customer demand for all-new Super Duty contributing to better market factors for Ford Pro, lower industry pricing of roughly 2%, driven by higher incentive spending as we exit the year. For Ford, we expect this to be partly offset by top line growth from the launch of our new products. Our segment outlook anticipates continued strength in Ford Pro. We now expect EBITDA of about $9 billion with an improved market equation, including continued pricing strength on core products. An expected loss of about $5 billion for Model e, which is the positive end of our guidance range, driven by over $1 billion in cost improvements that were partially offset by continued pricing pressure and investments in our new vehicle platforms.

全年客戶對全新 Super Duty 的需求為福特 Pro 帶來了更好的市場因素，在今年結束時激勵支出增加的推動下，行業定價降低了約 2%。對福特來說，我們預期這將被新產品推出帶來的營收成長部分抵銷。我們的細分市場展望預計福特 Pro 將繼續保持強勢。我們現在預計 EBITDA 約為 90 億美元，市場狀況得到改善，包括核心產品的持續定價優勢。 Model e 預計虧損約 50 億美元，這是我們指引的正值，這是由於超過 10 億美元的成本改善推動的，但持續的定價壓力和對新汽車平台的投資部分抵消了成本改善。

And for Ford Blue, we now expect EBIT of $5 billion, reflecting a balanced market equation and higher product manufacturing and warranty costs, partially offset by cost efficiencies. And lastly, Ford Credit's EBT will be about $1.6 billion, a double-digit growth year-over-year. Our performance this quarter demonstrates the positive progress on our Ford+ plan, capital discipline, the right product portfolio, and consistent cash generation to reward our shareholders. We are relentlessly working to make our business better, and we remain focused on improving both quality and cost.

對於福特藍，我們現在預計息稅前利潤為 50 億美元，反映了平衡的市場方程式以及更高的產品製造和保固成本，部分被成本效率所抵消。最後，福特信貸的 EBT 約為 16 億美元，較去年同期成長兩位數。我們本季的業績證明了我們的福特+計劃、資本紀律、正確的產品組合以及持續的現金產生以回報股東的積極進展。我們不懈地努力讓我們的業務變得更好，並且我們仍然專注於提高品質和成本。

That wraps up our prepared remarks. We'll use the balance of the time to address your questions.

我們準備好的發言就到此結束。我們將利用餘下的時間來解答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼（Mark Delaney）。

Pro EBIT was strong but did fall to 11.6% in the quarter although still at 14.6% year-to-date. Maybe you can talk a bit more around what led to the moderation in Pro EBIT during the third quarter. And what gives you confidence in that mid-teens EBIT margin in the Pro segment over the intermediate to longer term?

專業息稅前利潤強勁，但本季確實下降至 11.6%，儘管年初至今仍為 14.6%。也許您可以多討論導致第三季 Pro 息稅前利潤放緩的原因。是什麼讓您對中長期專業細分市場中十幾歲的息稅前利潤率充滿信心？

Yes. So when you look at it, what we're seeing this year, like we saw last year, is seasonality in the second [quarter]. Now there's transparency around the commercial business that we didn't have in the past. And first quarter, we see the peak in the rental business. That falls off in second quarter.

是的。因此，當你觀察時，我們今年看到的，就像我們去年看到的那樣，是第二[季度]的季節性。現在，商業業務變得更加透明，這是我們過去所沒有的。第一季度，我們看到租賃業務達到頂峰。這個數字在第二季度有所下降。

In fact, this quarter, third quarter, we had basically 0 rental business. The other thing we see in the second half is we see the shutdowns that we see at our plants. And as you know, we run these at full capacity so we lose those units and we can't make them up. And that's the seasonality you're seeing and then you see that show up in the EBIT in the second half. Confidence we have at Ford Pro ongoing is we're continuing to see, as Jim said, strong demand for our Super Duty and Transit, especially the chassis and the wagons.

事實上，這個季度、第三季度，我們的租賃業務基本上是0。下半年我們看到的另一件事是工廠停工。如您所知，我們滿載運行這些設備，因此我們失去了這些設備，而且無法彌補。這就是你所看到的季節性，然後你會看到它出現在下半年的息稅前利潤。正如吉姆所說，我們對福特 Pro 的信心是，我們將繼續看到對我們的 Super Duty 和 Transit 的強勁需求，尤其是底盤和貨車。

Our pricing has held up pretty strong so far this year. We are seeing some top line pricing pressure with the '25 model year vehicles as we expected, but we're still continuing to move forward. And it's not something that we're concerned about at this point based on what we're seeing so far with the '25 model years. So again, the business continues to be strong. And I would tell you that we're really starting to gain traction on our overall process of how we're going to market.

今年到目前為止，我們的定價一直相當強勁。正如我們預期的那樣，我們看到 25 年車型面臨一些頂線定價壓力，但我們仍在繼續前進。根據我們迄今為止在 25 年車型中所看到的情況，這不是我們目前所關心的事情。再說一次，業務持續強勁。我想告訴你，我們確實開始在行銷的整個流程上獲得牽引力。

And we're selling the solution, right? We're selling the vehicle along with the services that come along with that, that's about improving our customers' business and giving them productivity, which helps them improve their profits. So all of that's coming together and it's leading to a continued strength in Ford Pro.

我們正在銷售解決方案，對吧？我們銷售車輛以及隨之而來的服務，即改善客戶的業務並提高他們的生產力，從而幫助他們提高利潤。因此，所有這些結合在一起，將導致福特 Pro 的持續強勢。

I just had one either for you or for Jim around Model e. I think you said during your prepared remarks you'd expect improved EBIT trajectory in Model e next year. Maybe you can help us better understand how impactful some of the recent cost and capacity actions the company has taken might be within the Model e segment. And within your outlook for an improved EBIT trajectory within the Model e, how much of a risk might be rising CO2 requirements within Europe and just the broader pricing environment for EVs as you think about that improved trajectory?

我剛剛為你或吉姆準備了一輛 Model e 車。我想您在準備好的演講中說過，您預計明年 Model e 的息稅前利潤將有所改善。也許您可以幫助我們更了解公司最近採取的一些成本和產能行動對 Model e 細分市場的影響有多大。在您對 Model e 的息稅前利潤改善軌蹟的展望中，當您考慮這種改善的軌跡時，歐洲境內二氧化碳排放要求的上升以及電動車更廣泛的定價環境可能會帶來多大的風險？

Thanks for your question. Good news is we're starting to scale EV business in Europe. And those vehicles are contribution margin positive and they're becoming a bigger mix of our business. We are definitely getting traction from our cost-down efforts on our first cycle of products. And we're really focused on Mustang Mach-E.

謝謝你的提問。好消息是我們開始擴大歐洲的電動車業務。這些工具的邊際貢獻為正，它們正在成為我們業務的一個更大的組合。我們肯定會從第一個產品週期的成本降低努力中獲得動力。我們真正關注的是 Mustang Mach-E。

We've made a lot of progress and we have a lot more to make. So I think this is one of the benefits of having the segmentation broken out. And no doubt about it, I think we tried to highlight in our prepared comments the growing risk for everyone on pricing, and no OEM is immune to that. And as I said, we're seeing some of our competitors have enormous lease mixes, like 70-plus percent. So that will play out, especially in Europe, as you said.

我們已經取得了很多進展，而且還有很多工作要做。所以我認為這是打破細分的好處之一。毫無疑問，我認為我們試圖在準備好的評論中強調每個人在定價方面面臨的日益增長的風險，沒有一家 OEM 能夠倖免。正如我所說，我們看到我們的一些競爭對手擁有巨大的租賃組合，例如 70% 以上。正如你所說，這將會發生，特別是在歐洲。

There's a lot of pressure in Europe. Our products are brand new in Europe so that's a good thing and that will help us next year. Anything else, John?

歐洲壓力很大。我們的產品在歐洲是全新的，這是一件好事，這將對我們明年有所幫助。還有別的事嗎，約翰？

No, I just think that we're going to continue to focus on cost improvements in the current generation and the future generation. And that's -- have been in the marketplace as long as we have, that's really helped frame up the mandate we have for the California team around costs to be competitive. And what it's all going to hinge on us, as you said, Jim, that top line pricing pressure.

不，我只是認為我們將繼續關注當前世代和下一代的成本改進。那就是——我們已經進入市場很長一段時間了，這確實有助於我們為加州團隊制定圍繞成本競爭力的任務。正如你所說，吉姆，這一切都取決於我們的頂線定價壓力。

Yes. And to be specific on the cost, we really expect next year and the following years, a lot of progress in the production tax credit for our first-gen products. That's really one of the key levers for us. As we've been able to pretty quietly restructure our sourcing of our batteries, where they come from, who makes them to really maximize the PTC, and that will drive a lot of cost down for our existing products. And you'll see that come to fruition starting in mid next year and all the way through 2027.

是的。具體來說，我們確實預計明年和接下來的幾年，我們第一代產品的生產稅收抵免將取得巨大進展。這確實是我們的關鍵槓桿之一。因為我們已經能夠相當悄悄地重組我們的電池採購，它們來自哪裡，誰使它們能夠真正最大化 PTC，這將大大降低我們現有產品的成本。從明年年中開始一直到 2027 年，您都會看到這項成果得以實現。

Our next question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

Just a first question on warranty for maybe for both of you. And Jim, you kind of cited some pretty good positive data around J.D. Power, and some other sources. But I'm just curious if you're willing to, at this point, kind of ring the sort of the positive alarm bell that we're now kind of all clear on some of the warranty issues we've seen in the past, particularly last quarter. Or is there -- I mean, what is the certainty that we're through the worst of this?

對你們倆來說，這只是關於保固的第一個問題。 Jim，您引用了有關 J.D. Power 的一些非常好的積極數據以及其他一些來源。但我只是好奇你是否願意在這一點上敲響積極的警鐘，我們現在已經清楚了我們過去看到的一些保固問題，特別是上個季度。或者說——我的意思是，我們能確定我們已經度過了最糟糕的時期嗎？

Yes, John, I wish I could answer that with certainty. We are seeing the leading indicators, the physicals, we're seeing improvement there, especially around our three months in service '24 model year is over 30% better than what we saw in '21 and '22. As Jim mentioned, our launch spikes, basically on Explorer and Kuga, we didn't see one. So those are good indicators that things are going to get better from an overall quality standpoint. Now it's going to take time for that to flow through from a warranty standpoint.

是的，約翰，我希望我能肯定地回答這個問題。我們看到了領先指標、物理性能，我們看到了那裡的改善，特別是在使用 24 年車型的三個月左右，比我們在 21 和 22 年看到的要好 30% 以上。正如 Jim 所提到的，我們的發布高峰主要是在 Explorer 和 Kuga 上，但我們沒有看到。因此，從整體品質的角度來看，這些都是很好的指標，表明事情將會變得更好。現在從保固的角度來看，這需要時間才能完成。

What I can't tell you is I don't and can't read, and we're doing the best we can on this, and I know it's not satisfactory for you guys, is the FSAs and the older models. What could potentially hit us? And we're out looking at all the data we can. We're looking at everything to try to get out in front of any of those. And we're working to increase on our current models everything we can do to fix things through OTAs, get the repairs out there as fast as possible, cut off any issues that are in the plants.

我不能告訴你的是我不會也無法閱讀，我們正在盡我們所能，我知道這對你們來說並不令人滿意，是 FSA 和舊型號。什麼可能會打擊我們？我們正在盡可能地查看所有數據。我們正在考慮一切，試圖超越其中任何一個。我們正在努力在現有車型上增加我們可以採取的一切措施，透過 OTA 來解決問題，盡快進行維修，解決工廠中存在的任何問題。

So I think we're doing all the right things from a physical standpoint. I just can't tell you when that curve is going to bend for sure and how that's going to start flowing through from a cost standpoint. And we're doing everything we can to figure that out and get there and understand the transparency and clarity around that.

所以我認為從物理角度來看我們正在做所有正確的事情。我只是無法告訴你這條曲線何時會確實彎曲，以及從成本的角度來看它將如何開始流動。我們正在盡一切努力解決這個問題，並了解其透明度和清晰度。

And then just a second question around pricing. I mean, in Blue, it was still, on a net basis, even positive in the third quarter. A lot of concern around might -- what's going on with your inventory, although it sounds like you've answered that question, but also inventory at Stellantis and what might happen in the broader market. So I mean, as you look at this and you think about pricing, you've got great product coming out now and into next year that should be a bit of an offset. It seems like you have the inventory worked out.

然後是關於定價的第二個問題。我的意思是，在 Blue 中，從淨值來看，第三季的表現仍然是正面的。很多擔憂可能是——你的庫存狀況如何，儘管聽起來你已經回答了這個問題，但還有 Stellantis 的庫存以及更廣泛的市場可能發生的情況。所以我的意思是，當你看到這個並考慮定價時，你會發現現在和明年都會有很棒的產品問世，這應該會起到一定的抵消作用。看來你已經把庫存算出來了。

How do you think about pricing going forward in the industry? I mean it keeps surprising and being relatively resilient and actually even positive for you guys. So I mean how do you think about that going forward?

您如何看待產業未來的定價？我的意思是，它總是令人驚訝，並且相對有彈性，實際上對你們來說甚至是積極的。所以我的意思是你如何看待未來的發展？

Yes. So this year, top line, both pricing and volume, were a tailwind for us relative to what we had thought. The industry is down 2%. We are seeing increasing pressures as we come through the end of the quarter, into Q4 from a top line standpoint. Your guess is as good as mine, John, is what's going to happen and how deep some of our competitors are going to go that have an issue with inventories?

是的。因此，今年的營收，無論是價格還是銷量，相對於我們的預期都是有利的。該行業下降了2%。從營收角度來看，隨著本季末進入第四季度，我們看到壓力越來越大。約翰，你的猜測和我的一樣好，接下來會發生什麼，我們的一些競爭對手會在庫存問題上陷入多深的境地？

Yes, our inventories were higher but we also gained share in the quarter and our sales pace increased. So we think we're -- we've got a plan to manage our inventories. We've got a plan to get back to within the run rate of what we expect. We do have some launches in Q1 so we will carry some higher inventory for those vehicles through the end of the year. But next year, we plan to get back to that 50 to 60 days run rate for sure.

是的，我們的庫存較高，但我們在本季度的份額也有所增加，而且我們的銷售速度也有所加快。所以我們認為我們有一個計劃來管理我們的庫存。我們有一個計劃來恢復我們預期的運行速度。我們確實在第一季推出了一些產品，因此我們將在年底之前為這些車輛保留一些更高的庫存。但明年，我們計劃肯定恢復到 50 到 60 天的運行速度。

As we move into 2025, there's a lot of water that needs to flow into the bridge still between now and the end of the year. One of the things we're looking at is the consumers in Europe, it seems that they're pulling back a bit and spending less, so we've got to watch that. And I think many of you guys have written about the fact that are we heading into cyclical pricing headwinds? And is that going to show up in 2025? As you said, we've all been pleasantly surprised is how it's held up so far.

進入 2025 年，從現在到年底仍有大量水需要流入大橋。我們正在關注的事情之一是歐洲的消費者，他們似乎正在減少開支並減少支出，所以我們必須注意這一點。我想你們很多人都寫過這樣一個事實：我們是否正面臨週期性定價逆風？這會在 2025 年出現嗎？正如您所說，到目前為止，我們都對它的表現感到驚訝。

But I want to see how we run through this quarter, how the year-end is coming along, how sales are at the end of the year before I can give you any call on what we think is going to happen with pricing next year.

但我想看看我們這個季度的表現如何，年底的情況如何，年底的銷售情況如何，然後我才能就我們認為明年的定價會發生什麼情況給您打電話。

And the only thing I would add on the pricing is really the mix. We continue to see customers move into small utility. Affordable side of EVs continue to be really fuel the unit growth. And we're even seeing some change in series mix. So those are all uncertainties that we have to handicap for next year.

我唯一想在定價上添加的是產品組合。我們繼續看到客戶轉向小型公用事業。電動車價格實惠的一面繼續真正推動銷量成長。我們甚至看到系列組合發生了一些變化。因此，這些都是我們明年必須克服的不確定性。

But I just encourage all of us to not just look at the top line or the discounting but also look at the mix and the segmentation. The good news is the truck segments and the Pro segments are holding up really well.

但我只是鼓勵我們所有人不僅要關注營收或折扣，還要關注組合和細分。好消息是卡車細分市場和專業細分市場的表現非常好。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

So the Chinese have really been growing rapidly in Europe and rest of world as you've seen. I know you don't break out results geographically, but any color on any impact you might be seeing in Europe competitively or even in rest of world regions that you wanted to highlight? And specifically, I was kind of surprised you mentioned that China was contributing $600 million to your results this year. I'm curious how much of that was from the domestic market versus reverse exporting from China.

所以正如你所看到的，中國人在歐洲和世界其他地方確實在快速成長。我知道您沒有按地理位置列出結果，但是您想強調的歐洲競爭甚至世界其他地區可能會看到的任何影響有什麼顏色？具體來說，我對您提到中國今年為您的業績貢獻了 6 億美元感到有點驚訝。我很好奇其中有多少是來自國內市場，而有多少是來自中國的反向出口。

Yes. Adam, I'll start with that and then I think Jim will cover the rest of your question. So we are profitable in China in and of itself in China. Jim mentioned $600 million of total profits, and that includes our exports primarily to the rest of Asia and South America. So going asset-light has allowed us to stay profitable within China.

是的。亞當，我將從這一點開始，然後我認為吉姆將回答你問題的其餘部分。所以我們在中國本身就是有獲利的。吉姆提到了 6 億美元的總利潤，其中包括我們主要向亞洲其他地區和南美洲的出口。因此，輕資產使我們能夠在中國保持獲利。

And then the export strategy primarily from our JV or JMC and exporting those vehicles to the rest of Asia as well as South America is driving significant profit in Ford Blue.

然後，主要從我們的合資企業或江鈴汽車出口策略，並將這些車輛出口到亞洲其他地區以及南美洲，正在為福特藍帶來可觀的利潤。

And Adam, for our revenue globally, Ranger has become such a key product for us. We are in so many markets. And the reason why we're profitable overseas in so many of those markets is because Ranger. When I came in the company, Ranger was #13. Now we're #2 to Toyota Hilux.

Adam，對於我們的全球收入而言，Ranger 已成為我們的關鍵產品。我們涉足很多市場。我們之所以能在海外許多市場實現獲利，就是因為 Ranger。當我進入公司時，Ranger 排名第 13。現在我們排名第二，僅次於豐田 Hilux。

And in many markets, like Australia, we outsell them. So that's where the pressure is going to show up for Ford's revenue. Great Wall is now localizing in Thailand. They're 60% of the pickup market in China. They're a really sharp company with great products and great value proposition so we have a great strategy for that.

在許多市場，例如澳大利亞，我們的銷量超過了他們。這就是福特收入面臨的壓力。長城目前正在泰國進行在地化。他們佔了中國皮卡市場60%的份額。他們是一家非常敏銳的公司，擁有出色的產品和巨大的價值主張，因此我們為此制定了出色的策略。

But that's where we see it. In Europe, as you said in Europe, the passenger car market has been impacted but we really don't compete there. We really compete in the commercial Pro business in Europe. We don't see the Chinese being major movers. MAX is a little bit in the U.K., but they haven't really focused on the commercial Pro business.

但這就是我們所看到的。在歐洲，正如您所說，在歐洲，乘用車市場受到了影響，但我們確實不在那裡競爭。我們真正參與歐洲商業專業業務的競爭。我們不認為中國人是主要推動者。 MAX在英國有一點，但他們還沒有真正專注於商業Pro業務。

The good thing there is that we have a multi-energy strategy for all of our Transits where we can offer customers whatever they want, including electric Transits, as I said, almost 10% of our products. So we're well positioned, I think, in both locations for Ranger and Transit.

好處是，我們對所有 Transits 都採取了多能源策略，我們可以為客戶提供他們想要的任何東西，包括電動 Transits，正如我所說，幾乎占我們產品的 10%。因此，我認為，我們在 Ranger 和 Transit 兩個地點都處於有利位置。

Just as a follow-up, John, you cut about $1 billion out of the full year outlook. You provide the detail by your reporting segments, but I was wondering if you could break down what compromised that $1 billion shortfall by factor if I gave you your costs versus your expectations? You mentioned warranty costs are down but not as much as you thought. You're not satisfied. FX and the supplier disruption, you mentioned you missed some units.

作為後續行動，約翰，您將全年展望削減了約 10 億美元。您按報告部分提供了詳細信息，但我想知道，如果我向您提供您的成本與預期，您是否可以按因素細分導致 10 億美元缺口的因素？您提到保固成本下降了，但沒有您想像的那麼多。你不滿足。外匯和供應商中斷，您提到您錯過了一些單位。

I wanted to know if you could quantify that or any other factors by causal factor.

我想知道您是否可以透過因果因素來量化該因素或任何其他因素。

Yes. I think, Adam, when you look at it, you've got to look at it on the full year versus where we're guiding down now relative to what we had in Q2, right? And what we got in Q2, we had the headwinds hit us quite hard from a warranty standpoint, and we are seeing inflationary costs in Turkey. So if you just step back on the full year, what's gating us from hitting the record profits is the fact that we have those headwinds that are offsetting the positives we had from a top line that we just talked about, the volumes and mix and pricing stronger than we expected. Now coming out of the second quarter, what we've seen since then, which is gating us now to the lower end of our range is that we're seeing, and particularly in Blue, we're missing some volume and we're seeing some mixed headwinds due to some constraints we have with suppliers.

是的。我認為，亞當，當你看它時，你必須看全年的情況，以及我們現在相對於第二季度的指導情況，對嗎？從保固的角度來看，我們在第二季度遇到了很大的阻力，而且我們看到土耳其的通貨膨脹成本。因此，如果你回顧一下全年情況，你會發現，阻礙我們實現創紀錄利潤的事實是，我們面臨的逆風抵消了我們剛才談到的營收、銷售、產品組合和定價的正面影響。比我們預期的強。現在，從第二季度開始，我們從那時起就看到了我們所看到的，特別是在藍色方面，我們錯過了一些交易量，我們正在將我們限制在範圍的下限。商的一些限制，我們看到了一些複雜的阻力。

And it's hitting our most profitable, highest profitable mixed vehicles. Some of that is we lost some production due to the hurricane, but we also have some issues with a certain supplier on their productivity that we're trying to work through. We believe we'll be through that by the end of the quarter, but that is hitting Ford Blue and that's what's pulling Ford Blue down now from a standpoint versus what we guided at Q2. Does that explain -- does that cover it?

它正在打擊我們利潤最高、利潤最高的混合車輛。其中一些原因是我們因颶風而損失了一些生產，但我們也與某些供應商的生產力存在一些問題，我們正在努力解決這些問題。我們相信我們將在本季末解決這個問題，但這正在打擊福特藍色，從我們第二季度指導的角度來看，這就是現在拉低福特藍色的原因。這能解釋嗎——這涵蓋了它嗎？

Our next question comes from Daniel Roeska from AllianceBernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 AllianceBernstein 的 Daniel Roeska。

Maybe Jim, if you take a step back and think about Ford+ and the targets we've discussed in the past, I'm not going to hold you to 10% in '26. But could you still remind us of the stepping stones here for performance kind of in the medium term? And also give us a little bit of your view on how kind of the somewhat slower transition into EV might impact kind of what we've talked about in the past.

也許吉姆，如果你退一步想想福特+和我們過去討論過的目標，我不會讓你在 26 年保持 10%。但您仍然可以提醒我們中期績效的墊腳石嗎？請向我們提供一些您的看法，即向電動車的過渡較慢可能會對我們過去討論的內容產生何種影響。

Thank you. Well, certainly, our focus continues to be cost and our biggest cost focus is warranty, coverages and FSAs. That is our -- that's always been our work at Ford. I'd say we approached it looking at the most systematic changes that we need to make in the industrial system, and I'm proud of the progress but we're not satisfied at all. And we have a lot of opportunity.

謝謝。當然，我們的重點仍然是成本，而我們最大的成本重點是保固、保險和 FSA。這就是我們——這一直是我們在福特的工作。我想說，我們著眼於我們需要在工業體系中做出的最有系統的改變，我對所取得的進展感到自豪，但我們根本不滿意。我們有很多機會。

And going into maybe what looks like in our home market a little bit of a tougher pricing environment, that's upside for us as a company. And the management team is all focused on that and we're rewarded for doing that work. I would say the EV journey has been really interesting because as much as a slowdown, I'm really proud of the team reacting really quickly to it. Many of our competitors still have a lot of models coming out. And we made the adjustment really early and those second-generation products will be coming out.

進入我們國內市場可能看起來更嚴格的定價環境，這對我們作為一家公司來說是有利的。管理團隊都專注於此，我們也因所做的工作而獲得獎勵。我想說電動車之旅非常有趣，因為儘管速度放緩，但我為團隊對此的快速反應感到自豪。我們的許多競爭對手仍然有許多型號問世。我們很早就做出了調整，第二代產品就會問世。

In addition to that, we really learned the industrial fitness we have to have and the way the vehicle is designed, the design costs, the design for manufacturability, and that's all in our second-generation products. And I think that's a 4- or 5-year advantage for Ford. The other opportunity that kind of emerged maybe that we didn't expect was the popularity of hybrids, especially on trucks. Most of our competitors don't offer hybrid on an F-150 or a Maverick. And this has been a fantastic revenue opportunity for us.

除此之外，我們真正了解了我們必須具備的工業適應性以及車輛的設計方式、設計成本、可製造性設計，而這一切都在我們的第二代產品中。我認為這對福特來說是一個四、五年的優勢。我們可能沒有想到的另一個機會是混合動力車的普及，尤其是在卡車上。我們的大多數競爭對手都不在 F-150 或 Maverick 上提供混合動力。這對我們來說是一個絕佳的收入機會。

We frankly can't keep up with the demand. And the reason why we focused our hybrids on truck is because we can innovate for the customer Pro Power Onboard using hybrid and other advantages than just more efficient propulsion. And I think that has encouraged us to put hybrid across a whole lineup and be more curious about other partial electric solutions, which we'll talk to you about. I would say the skunkworks team has over-delivered, at least in the design of the platform. Now we have to make it to high-scale production.

坦白說，我們無法滿足需求。我們之所以將混合動力集中在卡車上，是因為我們可以利用混合動力和其他優勢為客戶進行創新，而不僅僅是更有效率的推進。我認為這鼓勵我們將混合動力納入整個產品線，並對其他部分電動解決方案更加好奇，我們將與您討論這些解決方案。我想說 Skunkworks 團隊已經超額交付了，至少在平台的設計上是如此。現在我們必須將其實現大規模生產。

And I am so excited to show everyone their work because it really shows how a company like Ford can compete with a company like BYD. And I would say Pro has been a really interesting journey for us because I think it kind of shows the future of the auto industry with attached services, with more focus on aftersales and repair and software that's kind of tied to the vehicle itself, not just generic productivity software but software that actually is tied to the vehicle. And to do that, we need advanced electric architectures. But there's been some challenges beyond cost and quality, obviously, and the slow uptake of EVs. Electric architectures are hard to execute.

我很高興向大家展示他們的作品，因為它真正展示了像福特這樣的公司如何與比亞迪這樣的公司競爭。我想說 Pro 對我們來說是一次非常有趣的旅程，因為我認為它透過附加服務展示了汽車產業的未來，更專注於與車輛本身相關的售後、維修和軟體，而不僅僅是通用生產力軟體，但實際上與車輛相關的軟體。為此，我們需要先進的電氣架構。但顯然，除了成本和品質以及電動車的緩慢普及之外，還存在一些挑戰。電氣架構很難執行。

The software journey and the technology for the company is big know-how. We're already at 20 million OTAs. That's going to be a more and more important capability for the company. So there have been surprises, but I think we're -- as I said, we're really well positioned in the short and mid-term.

該公司的軟體之旅和技術是重要的專業知識。我們已經擁有 2000 萬個 OTA。這對公司來說將是一項越來越重要的能力。所以確實有一些驚喜，但我認為我們——正如我所說，我們在短期和中期確實處於有利位置。

Great. And maybe, John, to follow up a little bit. If you kind of summarize, there's been headwinds in the short term. EV is going to look delayed so that ramp-up kind of certainly isn't happening maybe quite as fast demand [as you might have] stability on the cash side. But could I push you a bit and ask, what would make you reconsider kind of the strategy on shareholder distribution?

偉大的。約翰，也許可以跟進一下。總結一下，短期內有阻力。電動車看起來會出現延遲，因此肯定不會出現需求（正如現金方面的）穩定性那麼快的增長。但我可以問一下，什麼會讓你重新思考股東分配策略？

Because we've seen a couple of your competitors can be a little bit more aggressive on immediate distributions, be it dividends or buybacks, right? But just as a -- what's the balance you're striking? And what would maybe move you, let's say, to increase the dividend again, for example, or to take other distribution actions? What could some of those factors be to tilt the capital allocation to its shareholders?

因為我們已經看到你們的一些競爭對手在立即分配方面可能會更加激進一些，無論是股息還是回購，對吧？但就像──你要達到的平衡是什麼？例如，什麼可能會促使您再次增加股息，或採取其他分配行動？其中哪些因素可能導致資本配置向股東傾斜？

Right. So we talk about this every quarter as you would expect. And our -- we're consistent in that we're going to pay out 40% to 50% of our free cash flow. And we do think it's prudent at this point in time to hang on to the incremental cash. We have $28 billion and $8 billion higher than our stated cash minimum that we need is $20 billion.

正確的。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，我們每個季度都會討論這個問題。我們一貫的做法是，我們將支付 40% 到 50% 的自由現金流。我們確實認為目前持有增量現金是謹慎的做法。我們有 280 億美元，比我們規定的最低現金需求 200 億美元高出 80 億美元。

And I think at this point in time, where we're at in the industry, where we're at in the overall economic cycle, the uncertainty around the globe, right now, it's the right thing to hang on to cash. And I'm not saying there's going to be something that happens in the global economy. I'm not saying there's going to be some disruption. But were that to happen, we would be very pleased having this cash in hand. So we look at it every quarter.

我認為，在這個時候，我們所處的產業、我們所處的整體經濟週期、全球的不確定性，現在持有現金是正確的選擇。我並不是說全球經濟將會發生什麼事。我並不是說會有一些幹擾。但如果發生這種情況，我們會很高興手上有這筆現金。所以我們每季都會審視一下。

We understand that if we don't have a use for the cash or if the environment doesn't change, and we see that the risks that might be facing us diminish significantly, then we have to make sure that we handle that cash appropriately and either invest it or an accretive growth or pay it back to the shareholders. And we will look at that every quarter and we will adjust appropriately.

我們知道，如果我們沒有用處這些現金，或者環境沒有改變，我們看到我們可能面臨的風險顯著減少，那麼我們必須確保適當地處理這些現金，並且要么投資，要么增值，要么回報股東。我們每季都會審視這一點，並進行適當調整。

Our next question comes from Joseph Spak with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Joseph Spak。

Jim, actually, if we could just pick up right there. I want to talk a little bit about the 40% to 50% payout because I hear you and Jim's confidence on the business, but I also hear on this call that warranty is something you still don't quite have a handle on and there's some uncertainty there. The U.S. market, it's hard to see how it becomes stronger. You talked about potentially a pricing cycling downwards, again not expecting it, maybe not necessarily but it's possible.

吉姆，實際上，如果我們能直接接聽就好了。我想談談 40% 到 50% 的支付，因為我聽到你和吉姆對業務的信心，但我也在這次電話會議上聽到保修是你仍然不太掌握的事情，而且有一些那裡的不確定性。美國市場，很難看出它如何變強。您談到了價格可能會向下循環，再次沒有預料到，也許不一定，但有可能。

And if the industry stalls out, obviously, then there's working capital headwinds. We saw how fast free cash flow deteriorates at a competitor. You mentioned higher inflation. There's still some investment to be made. And I know you want to keep cash on hand for optionality.

顯然，如果該產業停滯不前，那麼營運資金就會面臨阻力。我們看到競爭對手的自由現金流惡化得有多快。你提到了更高的通貨膨脹。仍有一些投資要做。我知道你想保留現金以供選擇。

So when I hear you talk about 40% to 50%, it sounds to me like that's a retrospective view, but I'm actually wondering how much of a prospective view are you considering in that? And like why is 40% to 50% even the right number?

因此，當我聽到你談論 40% 到 50% 時，對我來說，這聽起來像是一種回顧性觀點，但我實際上想知道你在其中考慮了多少前瞻性觀點？為什麼 40% 到 50% 是正確的數字？

Yes. Of course, we look at both prospective and as well what we're going to pay out for the year. So we set the strategy around that payout ratio, 40% to 50%. And we thought -- we think that's a good point to be at right now. And we do look prospectively as to where we see the environment changing, what's in front of us, where the outlook could potentially be, the risks, the potential headwinds, potential tailwinds, et cetera.

是的。當然，我們既考慮了未來的前景，也考慮了我們今年將支付的費用。因此，我們圍繞派息率制定策略，即 40% 至 50%。我們認為——我們認為現在是一個很好的時機。我們確實前瞻性地關注環境的變化、我們面前的情況、潛在的前景、風險、潛在的不利因素、潛在的有利因素等等。

So we do, do that. It's just that at this point in time, we don't have anything to announce. But we're always evaluating it and we're always looking at it. We have the conversation every quarter as you would expect. And once we feel that it's the right time, then we will make a prospective change, a change based on a prospective outlook.

所以我們就這樣做。只是目前我們沒有任何消息要宣布。但我們一直在評估它並且一直在關注它。正如您所期望的那樣，我們每個季度都會進行一次對話。一旦我們覺得時機成熟，我們就會做出前瞻性的改變，基於前瞻性的改變。

I would only add to John's comment that we're really excited about the Pro services. And we don't have anything to announce but we're always going to want to have some optionality not just for running the business but for strategic optionality to build our services business. I mean when's a car company had a chance to get the profitability of a Pro business to 20% or 30% of its revenue being services? That is such a special moment for our company and, frankly, for the industry. But that just doesn't come from organic growth all the time.

我只想補充約翰的評論，我們對專業服務感到非常興奮。我們沒有什麼要宣布的，但我們總是希望有一些選擇權，不僅是為了經營業務，而且是為了建立我們的服務業務的策略選擇權。我的意思是，汽車公司什麼時候有機會將專業業務的獲利能力提高到服務收入的 20% 或 30%？對於我們公司，坦白說，對於整個行業來說，這是一個非常特殊的時刻。但這並不總是來自有機成長。

Sometimes it takes investments in new kinds of services. I'm not going to go into that, but I just want you to understand that we're also thinking very carefully, like we have all of our strategy choices, like going asset-light in China, like restructuring our businesses, like the way we handled the Rivian investment. We're thinking very carefully about our Pro business and how to nurture those services beyond what we have today.

有時需要對新型服務進行投資。我不打算深入討論這個問題，但我只是想讓你們明白，我們也在非常仔細地思考，就像我們有所有的戰略選擇一樣，比如在中國實行輕資產化，比如重組我們的業務，比如我們處理Rivian 投資的方式。我們正在非常仔細地考慮我們的專業業務以及如何培養這些服務超越我們今天的水平。

Maybe just as a second question, I want to go back to Mark's question on European compliance. I know last -- in the last 10-Q, you called out $3.8 billion for regulatory compliance, and I reread it this morning, it said for North America and Europe for current and future model years. But in Europe, it's really more of a -- there's no credit system, that's my understanding, right? It's a bilateral negotiation maybe for a pooling agreement. So is that what's being considered in that number?

也許作為第二個問題，我想回到馬克關於歐洲合規性的問題。我知道最後 - 在過去的 10 個季度中，您呼籲 38 億美元用於監管合規性，我今天早上重讀了它，它說針對北美和歐洲當前和未來的車型年份。但在歐洲，這其實更像是──沒有信用體系，這是我的理解，對嗎？這是一項雙邊談判，可能是為了達成一項聯合協議。那麼這就是這個數字所考慮的內容嗎？

And between a potential pooling agreement and your new portfolio with the Explorer, Capri, et cetera, do you expect to be compliant next year?

在潛在的聯營協議和您與 Explorer、Capri 等的新產品組合之間，您預計明年會合規嗎？

Yes. And the other thing to think about in Europe or in North America is, we tend to talk about CO2 compliance as like one thing. It's actually heavy-duty or light-duty as well as passenger car, and they're very different. And in Europe, that's really important to consider. So not only are we committed obviously to be compliant but we also have to think about our heavy-duty compliance in both markets.

是的。在歐洲或北美需要考慮的另一件事是，我們傾向於將二氧化碳合規性視為一件事。其實無論是重型車、輕型車還是客車，它們都有很大的不同。在歐洲，考慮這一點非常重要。因此，我們不僅明確致力於合規，而且還必須考慮我們在兩個市場的嚴格合規性。

And that's why we -- that's one of the reasons why we're so excited about, we have a whole new line of electric and combustion small vans. We just launched our main van, the one-ton transit that's available on diesel, gas, and fully electric. So we're obviously giving ourselves the best chance from an offer standpoint as well. But when it comes to CO2 compliance, I hope we start to double-click and not only look at ZEV states in the U.S. but also look at heavy-duty compliance because it's really -- it's quite different actually.

這就是為什麼我們——這就是我們如此興奮的原因之一，我們擁有全新的電動和燃燒小型貨車系列。我們剛剛推出了我們的主貨車，這是一款可使用柴油、天然氣和全電動的一噸運輸車。因此，從報價的角度來看，我們顯然也給了自己最好的機會。但當談到二氧化碳合規性時，我希望我們開始雙擊，不僅關注美國的 ZEV 州，而且還要關注重型合規性，因為它實際上是非常不同的。

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的伊曼紐爾·羅斯納。

My first question is on the cost reduction program. So this year's outlook still includes $2 billion in cost reductions for material, freight, manufacturing. You said you're on track for those. How much is it year-to-date? How much do you still need to achieve in the fourth quarter?

我的第一個問題是關於成本削減計劃。因此，今年的前景仍包括 20 億美元的材料、貨運和製造成本削減。你說過你正在朝著這些目標邁進。今年至今多少錢？第四季還需要達成多少目標？

And then if we look forward, I know there's a lot of uncertainty into next year and you've discussed them in detail, both in terms of volume and pricing and mix, et cetera, but in terms of things you control, what is sort of like the size of the cost opportunity as you move into 2025?

然後，如果我們展望未來，我知道明年存在許多不確定性，您已經詳細討論了它們，包括數量、定價和組合等方面，但就您控制的事物而言，是什麼進入2025 年時，成本機會有多大？

Yes. So on the efficiencies that we've brought through this year so far, most of it is through the first three quarters. So we do have some savings to come through in Q4 but most of it was through the first three quarters. Now you would expect that, right, Emmanuel, because there was -- a large part of that was on the design changes that we made with the launch of the model year. So most of that's come through.

是的。因此，就我們今年迄今所帶來的效率而言，大部分是在前三個季度實現的。因此，我們確實在第四季度實現了一些節省，但其中大部分是在前三個季度實現的。現在你會期望這一點，對吧，伊曼紐爾，因為其中很大一部分是我們在推出該車型時所做的設計更改。所以大部分都已經完成了。

And on a go-forward basis?

並在前進的基礎上？

So as you know as well as anybody, and you had identified this morning in your note, we have a tremendous opportunity, given our cost competitiveness relative to competition. The question is the rate and flow and how we bend that curve and pull that cost out. It is our #1 opportunity to unlock the potential of our Ford+ strategy. We understand that, and we're not going to give any numbers on '25 at this standpoint right now, right? We're in our planning cycle.

因此，正如您和其他人一樣知道，並且您今天早上在您的說明中指出，鑑於我們相對於競爭對手的成本競爭力，我們擁有巨大的機會。問題是速率和流量，以及我們如何彎曲這條曲線並降低成本。這是我們釋放福特+策略潛力的第一大機會。我們理解這一點，從這個角度來看，我們現在不會給出 25 年的任何數字，對吧？我們正處於計劃週期中。

There's a lot of water, as I said earlier, to flow into the bridge before the end of the year. We'll give that guidance and we'll give you an update in Q4 earnings for '25 and what we're going after on cost from that perspective. But there's a -- you know this as well as all of you know this, that our cost -- our position from a cost competitive standpoint, we have a lot of opportunity there and we understand that, and we're aggressively going after it.

正如我之前所說，年底之前會有大量的水流入大橋。我們將提供該指導，並為您提供 25 年第四季度收益的最新信息，以及我們從這個角度對成本的追求。但是，你們知道這一點，你們也都知道，我們的成本——從成本競爭的角度來看，我們的地位，我們在那裡有很多機會，我們理解這一點，並且我們正在積極追求它。

For the industrial team, what we're really focused on as we finish off this year and next year is another cycle of our material cost reduction. We had a really -- we've made a lot of progress here, but we also added a lot of new product costs as well. That all is opportunity for us on material costs. So this will be kind of the second rotation of that as we enter next year. And of course, a double-click or special attention on our EV Gen 1 costs.

對於工業團隊來說，今年和明年結束時我們真正關注的是材料成本降低的另一個週期。我們確實取得了很大進展，但我們也增加了許多新產品成本。這對我們來說在材料成本上都是機會。因此，這將是我們進入明年時的第二次輪調。當然，雙擊或特別關注我們的 EV Gen 1 成本。

On warranty, we're really looking at our software warranty costs and the cost of repairing modules as well as powertrain. That's really where the team is focused on warranty. Obviously, we made good progress on manufacturing, but we have a lot more work to do in North America, and that includes freight and duty. And then we're looking very carefully at our should cost on supply chain with our suppliers, working carefully with them to make sure that we have competitive negotiations and any inflation-related requests, that we're dispositioning those to be fair to both the supplier and Ford. And we have dedicated teams on all those areas.

在保固方面，我們真正關注的是軟體保固成本以及維修模組和動力系統的成本。這確實是團隊關注保固的地方。顯然，我們在製造方面取得了良好進展，但我們在北美還有很多工作要做，其中包括貨運和關稅。然後，我們非常仔細地考慮與供應商的供應鏈成本，與他們仔細合作，以確保我們進行競爭性談判和任何與通膨相關的要求，確保我們對這些要求的配置對雙方都公平。福特。我們在所有這些領域都有專門的團隊。

We benchmark our competitors from a process and talent standpoint, and that's where we're spending our time as a team.

我們從流程和人才的角度來衡量我們的競爭對手，這就是我們作為一個團隊花費時間的地方。

Our next question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

Sorry about that. Want to follow up on the prior line questions and just ask something a little different on cost. You mentioned or you discussed at your Capital Markets Day, I think it was some 15, 18 months ago now, that you had the $7 billion cost gap against your competitors, mostly on the material cost. You mentioned that you're getting the $2 billion of cost this year but you had other costs come into the system. Where do you think you stand now on narrowing that cost gap?

對此感到抱歉。想要跟進前面的問題，只是問一些關於成本的不同問題。您在資本市場日提到或討論過，我認為大約 15、18 個月前，您與競爭對手之間存在 70 億美元的成本差距，主要是材料成本。您提到今年您將獲得 20 億美元的成本，但係統中還有其他成本。您認為現在在縮小成本差距方面有何立場？

Are you just as confident today that you can narrow that cost gap versus when you originally presented that target?

與最初提出該目標時相比，您今天是否同樣有信心縮小成本差距？

Yes. So Dan, I think we're in a different position today versus where we were 18 months ago about really understanding the root cause issue of that and what it's going to take to make the changes to get that cost out of the system. And that's been a very fundamental change for us as a leadership team, honestly. Our cost gap versus competition versus them has not closed. It's not to say that we haven't taken cost out, we have.

是的。 Dan，我認為我們今天的處境與 18 個月前的處境有所不同，我們需要真正理解問題的根本原因，以及需要採取哪些措施來做出改變，以消除系統中的成本。老實說，這對我們的領導團隊來說是一個非常根本的改變。我們與競爭對手的成本差距尚未縮小。這並不是說我們沒有扣除成本，而是說我們已經扣除了成本。

We've taken cost out, but we're not doing it at a pace faster than our competition. So we go through every quarter. We update the analysis. We pull apart the financial statements when we get the Qs and at the end of the year with the K. We look at the progress we've made versus the progress that our competitors have made.

我們已經降低了成本，但我們的速度並沒有快於競爭對手。所以我們每季都會經歷一次。我們更新分析。當我們拿到 Q 時，我們會拆開財務報表，並在年底得到 K。

And it largely sits. We've made more progress on material costs but we've gone backwards on warranty costs. We've made some progress on our structural costs, ASP, SG&A relative to competition, but other areas have offset that. We've had more inflationary costs because of our joint venture in Turkey with what they've seen with that business. So it's still a very strong business.

它基本上是坐著的。我們在材料成本方面取得了更多進展，但在保固成本方面卻出現了倒退。相對於競爭，我們在結構成本、平均售價、SG&A 方面取得了一些進展，但其他領域已經抵消了這一點。由於我們在土耳其的合資企業與他們在該業務中所看到的情況，我們的通貨膨脹成本更高。所以它仍然是一個非常強大的業務。

It's still the lowest cost business. We've just seen this increase this year that we weren't planning for. So we need to move faster, bottom line. And warranty needs to be a big part of that. We need to continue to make the progress on material costs, our manufacturing costs, overall structural costs, as well as driving down the warranty costs.

這仍然是成本最低的業務。今年我們剛剛看到了我們沒有計劃到的成長。因此，我們需要更快地行動，這是底線。保固是其中的重要組成部分。我們需要繼續在材料成本、製造成本、整體結構成本以及降低保固成本方面取得進展。

So it's a humbling position to be in is that, as you said, 18 months later, we haven't closed the gap despite taking cost out. Our competitors are doing the same thing. They're taking cost out. We need to accelerate our pace to outrun what our competitors are doing.

因此，正如您所說，18 個月後，儘管扣除了成本，我們仍未縮小差距，這是一個令人羞愧的處境。我們的競爭對手也在做同樣的事情。他們正在削減成本。我們需要加快步伐，超越競爭對手。

That's helpful color. Maybe as a follow-up, wanted to ask about a comment, Jim, that you mentioned earlier that on the skunkworks EV. You have confidence in the cost because you've already quoted 60% of the BOM. Maybe you could give us a flavor of sort of what pieces you've seen clear achievements on in your quoting or sourcing that are driving these material cost-outs versus maybe where the rest of the industry is, and that's enabling you to achieve what you think is structurally lower cost on the EVs?

這是有用的顏色。吉姆，也許作為後續行動，想詢問您之前提到的有關 Skunkworks EV 的評論。您對成本充滿信心，因為您已經報價了 BOM 的 60%。也許您可以向我們介紹一下，您在報價或採購中看到了哪些明顯的成就，這些成就推動了這些材料成本的下降，而行業其他部門的情況可能是這樣，這使您能夠實現您想要的目標。

Yes. So obviously, having a competitive LFP battery is really, really important. Competitive is a key word. The team took a totally different approach to developing the vehicle. And I don't want to get into too much detail, but I'm really proud that we basically verified the design of each part like a year or two earlier than we normally do.

是的。顯然，擁有有競爭力的磷酸鐵鋰電池真的非常非常重要。競爭是一個關鍵字。團隊採用了完全不同的方法來開發車輛。我不想透露太多細節，但我真的很自豪，我們基本上比平常提前一兩年驗證了每個部分的設計。

And we verified it from the supplier standpoint and ours by looking at a variety of different suppliers, even challenged our suppliers. And that has been an eye-opening experience for us to see what really should cost is on a lot of these advanced components, especially because we think companies like BYD have an incredible advantage on affordability of batteries. So we have to make that up where our opportunity is on the EV component side, inverters, gearboxes, motors, et cetera. And I think it's a combination of very new approaches to the actual design of the component as well as leveraging new suppliers as well as working way up front on the part design itself to get the cost out using the technology road map of the supplier. And that's where we're seeing a lot of the progress.

我們透過考察各種不同的供應商，從供應商和我們的角度驗證了這一點，甚至挑戰了我們的供應商。這對我們來說是一次令人大開眼界的經歷，讓我們看到許多這些先進組件的真正成本是多少，特別是因為我們認為像比亞迪這樣的公司在電池的承受能力方面擁有令人難以置信的優勢。因此，我們必須在電動車組件方面、逆變器、變速箱、馬達等方面彌補這一點。我認為這是組件實際設計的非常新的方法以及利用新供應商以及在零件設計本身上進行預先工作以使用供應商的技術路線圖來降低成本的結合。這就是我們看到很多進展的地方。

Basically, the answer to your question is we radically simplified the vehicle. Like if you look at the number of parts in the vehicle, it is just a completely order of magnitude change. And when you simplify the components to that level and you really move the design and supplier design phases earlier, you can integrate a simpler design with a better should cost. That's the high hard one on the skunkworks team. Look, we've done a lot of manufacturing.

基本上，你問題的答案是我們從根本上簡化了車輛。就像如果你看看車輛中的零件數量一樣，這只是一個完全數量級的變化。當您將組件簡化到該級別並且確實將設計和供應商設計階段提前時，您可以將更簡單的設計與更好的成本整合起來。這是臭鼬工廠團隊中最難的一個。看，我們已經做了很多製造工作。

We have a whole new kitting strategy for the vehicle. We have a unit casting strategy that massively simplifies the stamping of the vehicle. I think a lot of other companies will do that. But what I'm really seeing is an ethos of simplicity and a higher engagement with a broader supply chain earlier in the process than the typical Ford development cycle.

我們為車輛制定了全新的配套策略。我們有一個單元鑄造策略，可以大大簡化車輛的沖壓過程。我認為很多其他公司也會這樣做。但我真正看到的是一種簡單的精神，以及比典型的福特開發週期更早參與更廣泛的供應鏈的精神。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

福特汽車公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議至此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。