福特汽車 (F) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. My name is Gary, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

今天是個好日子。我叫加里，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎您參加福特汽車公司 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。現在，我想將電話轉給投資人關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。請繼續。

Thanks, Gary. Welcome to Ford Motor Company's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; and John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Cathy O'Callaghan, CEO of Ford Credit.

謝謝，加里。歡迎參加福特汽車公司 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長吉姆法利 (Jim Farley)；約翰‧勞勒（John Lawler），財務長。福特信貸執行長 Cathy O'Callaghan 也加入了我們的問答環節。

Today's discussion includes some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論包括一些非 GAAP 參考資料。這些數據與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計準則衡量標準進行了調整。您可以在股東.福特.com 上找到該簡報以及我們其餘的收益資料和其他重要內容。

Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 19.

我們的討論還包括有關我們期望的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。第 19 頁列出了可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素。

Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS, and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis.

除非另有說明，所有比較均為逐年比較。公司息稅前利潤、每股盈餘和自由現金流均經過調整。

Lastly, I want to call out a few of our near-term IR engagements. May 30, Jim Farley will participate in a fireside chat in New York with Toni Sacconaghi and Daniel Röska at the Bernstein Annual Strategic Decisions Conference. And June 11, John Lawler will participate in a fireside chat in New York with Emmanuel Rosner at Deutsche Bank's Auto Summit. Jim?

最後，我想談談我們近期的一些 IR 活動。 5 月 30 日，吉姆法利 (Jim Farley) 將在紐約伯恩斯坦年度戰略決策會議上與托尼薩科納吉 (Toni Sacconaghi) 和丹尼爾羅斯卡 (Daniel Róska) 一起參加爐邊談話。 6 月 11 日，約翰·勞勒 (John Lawler) 將參加在紐約舉行的德意志銀行汽車峰會上與伊曼紐爾·羅斯納 (Emmanuel Rosner) 的爐邊談話。吉姆？

Thank you, Lynn. Hi, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The cornerstone of Ford+ is pretty straightforward, a more resilient business model, higher growth, higher margin and more capital efficiency. And I would say quarter 1 had a lot of great green shoots in that plan. It sets us up for a very strong 2024 and beyond.

謝謝你，林恩。大家好，感謝您加入我們。福特+的基石非常簡單，即更具彈性的商業模式、更高的成長、更高的利潤率和更高的資本效率。我想說，第一季的計畫中有很多很棒的萌芽。它為我們迎接 2024 年及以後的強勁發展奠定了基礎。

Before John goes through the quarter, I wanted to highlight 4 key strategic areas: how our growth drivers are changing, our progress in quality, the resilient Ford Pro business, and what we're learning on the electrification journey in quarter 1. On growth, the portfolio changes we made and the restructuring we've done in our geographic footprint has really paid off for Ford. Several years ago, we normally would be reducing our volume and our mix and having good news on pricing. What's changed in the last year and especially in Q1, you could see, is our top line and bottom line profitability are increasing driven by improved volumes and mix, and we're actually seeing pricing headwinds.

在約翰介紹本季之前，我想強調4 個關鍵策略領域：我們的成長動力如何變化、我們在品質方面的進步、富有彈性的福特Pro 業務以及我們在第一季的電氣化之旅中學到的東西。幾年前，我們通常會減少銷售和產品組合，並在定價方面帶來好消息。您可以看到，去年，尤其是第一季的變化是，我們的頂線和底線盈利能力在銷量和組合改善的推動下不斷增加，而且我們實際上看到了定價逆風。

And that new portfolio and geographic footprint is really tremendous to see at Ford. There is no better example for this than the portfolio changes we've made in our truck and van business. Ford is the #1 best-selling pickup manufacturer in the world. And our Ford Transit cargo van is the best-selling in the world. It's now our second best-selling nameplate at Ford. And our midsized Ranger, not our most affordable pickup, is the third best-selling vehicle at Ford and together with the Everest makes up our profits outside of China, North America and Europe. It's an incredible new franchise for Ford.

在福特，新的產品組合和地理足跡確實是巨大的。沒有比我們在卡車和貨車業務中所做的投資組合改變更好的例子了。福特是全球銷售第一的皮卡製造商。我們的福特全順貨車是全世界最暢銷的。現在它是福特第二暢銷的銘牌。我們的中型 Ranger，不是我們最實惠的皮卡，而是福特第三暢銷車，與 Everest 一起構成了我們在中國、北美和歐洲以外的利潤。對於福特來說，這是一個令人難以置信的新特許經營權。

These changes in our portfolio at all different sizes and price points in the truck and the van business has really played to Ford's strength. And it doesn't stop there. Our growth drivers are diversifying. We now have a vibrant software business and physical services business led by Ford Pro. You don't need to look very far beyond our mobile service as an example. Ford now has 3,500 or more remote service vehicles in our fleet globally. And last year, we did 2.4 million remote service experiences, both remote service, and pickup and delivery. 40% of that was for Pro and 60% was for our retail business. Ford now has more than 700,000 paid subscribers for software. That's up 47% year-over-year. It's capital efficient and the gross margins of more than 50%.

我們在卡車和貨車業務中不同尺寸和價位的產品組合中的這些變化確實發揮了福特的優勢。而且它還不止於此。我們的成長動力正在多元化。我們現在擁有由 Ford Pro 領導的充滿活力的軟體業務和實體服務業務。您無需將我們的行動服務作為範例。福特目前在全球車隊中擁有 3,500 輛或更多遠端服務車輛。去年，我們做了 240 萬次遠距服務體驗，包括遠端服務、取貨和送貨。其中 40% 用於專業版，60% 用於我們的零售業務。福特目前擁有超過 70 萬名軟體付費訂閱者。較去年同期成長 47%。它的資本效率高，毛利率超過50%。

Our quality is making real progress. Kumar and the team have really focused on key areas. Our '23 model year 3 months in service, initial quality is 10% better than the previous model year. And we're seeing our current model year that we're selling for several months, another 10% improvement. That should put us in the middle of the pack, and many of our vehicles start to lead their segments in initial quality.

我們的品質正在取得真正的進步。庫馬爾和團隊確實專注於關鍵領域。我們的 '23 車型年投入使用 3 個月，初始品質比上一車型年好 10%。我們看到我們目前的車型已經銷售了幾個月，又提高了 10%。這應該使我們處於中間位置，並且我們的許多車輛開始在初始品質方面領先於其細分市場。

But to bend the curve on warranty costs and customer recalls, we're really focusing on our launches. We're past the Super Duty launch now and well into the F-150 launch, and we made a lot of changes to improve and bend that curve. On the F-150 and others, we've delayed the okay to buy 3 to 6 weeks. We've taken a lot of new testing regimens. Actually, we ended the quarter with 60,000 units in our plant stock, which hurt our first quarter, but we'll benefit because we're shipping those now in our second quarter for all those quality processes.

但為了扭轉保固成本和客戶召回的曲線，我們真正專注於我們的產品發布。我們現在已經過了 Super Duty 的發布階段，並進入了 F-150 的發布階段，我們做了很多改變來改進和彎曲這條曲線。對於 F-150 和其他飛機，我們將購買許可證推遲了 3 到 6 週。我們採取了很多新的測試方案。實際上，在本季度結束時，我們的工廠庫存有 60,000 件，這對我們第一季造成了影響，但我們將受益，因為我們現在正在第二季度為所有這些品質流程發貨。

And what we're so far seeing is we avoided about 12 recalls on F-150, and we're seeing the best performance on [3 MIS] after launch in a long time. And I'd like to be specific here. Normally, after a launch, we've seen about -- in the last 5 years, about a 70% spike in our defects. The industry average is about 20%. In the Super Duty and Mustang launches, we're about that industry average 20% spike. And now we're seeing with the F-150 even better performance at industry average.

到目前為止，我們看到的是，我們避免了 F-150 約 12 次召回，而且我們看到 [3 MIS] 推出後很長一段時間以來表現最佳。我想在這裡具體說明一下。通常，在發布後，我們會看到在過去 5 年中，我們的缺陷增加了約 70%。行業平均約為20%。在 Super Duty 和 Mustang 的發布中，我們的行業平均增幅約為 20%。現在，我們看到 F-150 的性能甚至優於行業平均。

And boy, do we have a lot of launches in the second half to prove out this new launch process. What we're going to see long term is fewer recalls and lower warranty costs because of this new process. I'm really proud of the team's progress on quality, and we have so much more to do.

天哪，我們下半年是否有很多發布來證明這個新的發布過程。從長遠來看，由於這種新工藝，我們將看到更少的召回和更低的保固成本。我對團隊在品質方面取得的進步感到非常自豪，我們還有很多事情要做。

I'd like to talk quickly about Ford Pro. I mean look at quarter 1. We made $3 billion. It's how much we made the whole year in Pro 2 years ago. We're growing revenues, EBIT, EBIT margin. We're growing our volume. Our attach rates for high-margin software and physical services are improving. And when you ask yourself, why is this different and why would this business -- why would these profits be more resilient than our retail business, it comes down to 3 things.

我想快速談談福特 Pro。我的意思是看看第一季。這是我們 2 年前在 Pro 中全年賺的錢。我們的收入、息稅前利潤、息稅前利潤率都在成長。我們正在增加我們的數量。我們的高利潤軟體和實體服務的附加率正在提高。當你問自己，為什麼這是不同的，為什麼這個業務 - 為什麼這些利潤比我們的零售業務更具彈性時，它可以歸結為三件事。

First is the diversity of our customer base. About 1/3 of our Pro customers are small business. Another third are large companies, and about 20% more is governments, all different kinds. And the diversity of those customers and all 3 of them are driving white-hot demand for our vehicles and services right now from infrastructure build-out, roadworks, 5G, onshoring manufacturing and refleeting for our key government fleets. One out of 4 of those fleets are all Ford, and boy, do they trust our company.

首先是我們客戶群的多樣性。我們大約 1/3 的 Pro 客戶是小型企業。另外三分之一是大公司，另外約 20% 是政府，各種類型的。這些客戶以及所有這三個客戶的多樣性正在推動我們的車輛和服務的白熱化需求，包括基礎設施建設、道路施工、5G、本土製造和我們主要政府車隊的轉運。這些車隊中有四分之一都是福特汽車，天哪，他們信任我們公司嗎？

But more than anything, it's the breadth and freshness of our new lineup at Pro that's driving our profitability. We have the freshest lineup we've had in 20 years in Pro. We have an all-new Super Duty, an all-new Transit from top to bottom. And we have an all-new Ranger in 5-plus plants around the world. These new products are really attractive to customers. And beyond that, we have the most diverse Class 1 to 7 lineup in North America, our key market. In that adjacency, sales are important because customers buy different kinds of vehicles for us in the same fleet.

但最重要的是，Pro 的新產品陣容的廣度和新鮮度推動了我們的獲利能力。我們擁有 20 年來 Pro 版中最新鮮的陣容。我們有一輛全新的 Super Duty，一輛從上到下的全新 Transit。我們在全球 5 多家工廠擁有全新 Ranger。這些新產品確實對顧客很有吸引力。除此之外，我們在我們的主要市場北美擁有最多樣化的 1 至 7 級產品陣容。在這種情況下，銷售很重要，因為客戶在同一車隊中為我們購買不同類型的車輛。

But beyond that, in those fresh nameplates, we offer the best choice. We have cabin chassis and cutaway versions of our vans, different wheel bases and heights, the same on our pickup trucks. And we also have the most choice in terms of upfitters. We have 500 different upfitters across Western Europe and the U.S. that prefer to work with Ford because of our experience with them. And it doesn't stop there. We have -- we design all of our commercial vehicles with a multi-energy platform, and that allows our customers to choose electric, partial electric, diesel, petrol, whatever choice on powertrain that best meets their cost of ownership. No one has this kind of lineup in our business globally.

但除此之外，在那些新鮮的銘牌中，我們提供了最好的選擇。我們有廂型車的駕駛室底盤和剖面版本，不同的軸距和高度，與我們的皮卡車相同。而且我們在裝修者方面也有最多的選擇。我們在西歐和美國有 500 名不同的改裝工，他們更願意與福特合作，因為我們與他們合作的經驗豐富。而且它還不止於此。我們所有的商用車都採用多能源平台設計，這使得我們的客戶可以選擇電動、部分電動、柴油、汽油以及最能滿足其擁有成本的動力系統選擇。在全球範圍內，我們的業務中沒有人擁有這樣的陣容。

The third key area is the diversification and the completeness of our software and physical services experiences for our customers. Now 13% of Ford Pro's profits in the last 12 years make up these attached services. And it's a big change for us. And what's really driving that is our advantage in physical service. We have the largest repair network you can find of any brand out there, and we're widening that gap. We've added 700 commercial service bays in the last year and more than 11 very large service lead centers with between 50 and 200 repair bays that are open 24/7 for our customers. None of our competitors offer this kind of extensive repair network.

第三個關鍵領域是我們為客戶提供的軟體和實體服務體驗的多樣化和完整性。現在，福特 Pro 過去 12 年利潤的 13% 來自這些附加服務。這對我們來說是一個很大的改變。真正推動這一趨勢的是我們在實體服務方面的優勢。我們擁有所有品牌中最大的維修網絡，並且我們正在擴大這一差距。去年，我們增加了 700 個商業服務站和超過 11 個超大型服務中心，其中有 50 到 200 個維修站，全天候 (24/7) 為我們的客戶開放。我們的競爭對手都沒有提供這種廣泛的維修網路。

And it doesn't stop there. We have over 2,000 remote trucks and vans doing remote service for our Pro customers. No brand can match that either. And now we have over 560,000 active software subscriptions for Pro customers. That's up 40%. And that Pro Intelligence business took many years to build. It requires advanced electric architectures, and it's a really hard moat to copy. Long and the short, Ford Pro is in for a great performance over the next several years.

而且它還不止於此。我們有 2,000 多輛遠程卡車和貨車為我們的專業客戶提供遠端服務。也沒有哪個品牌可以與之匹敵。現在，我們為 Pro 客戶提供了超過 560,000 個活躍軟體訂閱。上漲了 40%。 Pro Intelligence 業務花了很多年才建立起來。它需要先進的電力架構，而且這是一條很難複製的護城河。總而言之，福特 Pro 將在未來幾年內取得出色的表現。

What did we learn on electric so far? Well, as you know, we're #2 in our home market in electric sales for the last couple of years, and boy, we learned a lot. Since capital markets last year, we continue to adapt and evolve our spending and our investment ramp for battery plants and assembly capacity for our EVs to match customers' demand and more importantly than all of that, match their price expectations.

到目前為止，我們在電氣方面學到了什麼？嗯，如你所知，過去幾年我們在國內電力銷售市場排名第二，天哪，我們學到了很多東西。自去年資本市場以來，我們不斷調整和發展我們的支出以及對電池廠和電動車組裝能力的投資，以滿足客戶的需求，更重要的是，滿足他們的價格預期。

We're retiming our launches and our capital spending. In fact, this year, we expected to spend about $10 billion as a company. We've now guided $8 billion to $9 billion. We'll probably be on the low end of that range.

我們正在重新調整我們的發佈時間和資本支出。事實上，今年我們公司預計支出約 100 億美元。我們現在指導資金為 80 億至 90 億美元。我們可能會處於該範圍的低端。

And we're being very consistent about our discipline on profitability. We expect every one of our EVs to make money in the first 12 months, and that is a very disciplined process. In fact, we delayed the launch of our 3-row crossover, which is a great product, 2 years, not only to match the slower growth in EV but more importantly to take advantage of new battery chemistry and formats to substantially reduce the cost of the batteries for that vehicle. We'll do everything it takes to be profitable in the first 12 months of our vehicles.

我們在獲利能力方面的紀律非常一致。我們希望每一輛電動車都能在前 12 個月內獲利，這是一個非常嚴格的過程。事實上，我們推遲了3 排跨界車的推出，這是一款很棒的產品，推遲了兩年，不僅是為了適應電動車成長放緩的趨勢，更重要的是為了利用新的電池化學和格式來大幅降低成本該車輛的電池。我們將盡一切努力在車輛上市後的前 12 個月內獲利。

And what's our bet as a company? Well, it's pretty simple. We're going to bet on commercial work vehicles where we do really well, where we know the customers, where we can innovate for them like Pro Power Onboard with partial and fully electric vehicles. But increasingly, our bet will be on our new small affordable platform developed by our team on the West Coast.

作為一家公司，我們的賭注是什麼？嗯，這很簡單。我們將把賭注押在商用工作車輛上，因為我們做得非常好，我們了解客戶，我們可以為他們進行創新，例如 Pro Power Onboard 的部分和全電動車輛。但我們越來越多地將賭注押在我們西海岸團隊開發的新的小型負擔得起的平台上。

Why is affordability so important? When we look at the connected car data from our EV customers, we noticed that people live in the suburbs. Urban customers, they tend to drive shorter distances and those more affordable vehicles, more approachable. And we believe that's where the adoption of EV will grow the fastest. And we believe we can compete in segments of small cars and vehicles, more affordable vehicles in a unique way that's Ford.

為什麼負擔能力如此重要？當我們查看電動車客戶的連網汽車數據時，我們注意到人們住在郊區。對於城市客戶來說，他們傾向於駕駛較短的距離，並且那些更實惠的車輛更平易近人。我們相信，這就是電動車採用成長最快的領域。我們相信，我們可以以福特獨特的方式在小型汽車和車輛、更實惠的車輛領域中競爭。

A good example was we learned a lot when we -- in our more expensive vehicles, Mach-E, when, in February, we dropped the price 17%, our volume went up 141%. That's telling us that the more affordable we can make great product, the more attractive it is to these mainstream EV adopters.

一個很好的例子是，我們在更昂貴的車輛 Mach-E 上學到了很多東西，2 月份，我們將價格降低了 17%，但銷量卻增加了 141%。這告訴我們，我們生產的優質產品越便宜，對這些主流電動車採用者就越有吸引力。

And the last thing I'd say is we're learning about the importance of choice. Our growth in the first quarter in hybrids is a good example. We grew 36%. We think the full year will be 40%. We're now approaching 400,000 units volume for our hybrid business, and we're now #3 in hybrids in the U.S. It's a big advantage. We've been in the business for more than 20 years. And what's really exciting for us is, for the first time, some of our contribution margins on hybrids are above or at similar contribution margins than our pure internal combustion engine margins.

我要說的最後一件事是我們正在了解選擇的重要性。我們第一季混合動力車的成長就是一個很好的例子。我們成長了 36%。我們認為全年將達到 40%。現在，我們的混合動力業務銷量已接近 40 萬輛，我們現在在美國混合動力業務中排名第三。我們從事該行業超過 20 年。對我們來說真正令人興奮的是，我們在混合動力汽車上的一些貢獻邊際首次高於或相似於我們的純內燃機利潤。

With that, I'll turn it over to John.

有了這個，我會把它交給約翰。

Okay. Thanks, Jim. So our team around the globe is becoming more focused and adept at applying the Ford+ strategy, and we really did deliver a solid quarter. We are transforming Ford into a higher-growth, higher-margin, more capital-efficient and more resilient business. We're progressively shedding behaviors that have weighed down performance and valuation of legacy auto companies for most of the industry's history.

好的。謝謝，吉姆。因此，我們在全球的團隊變得更加專注和擅長應用福特+策略，我們確實交付了一個穩定的季度。我們正在將福特轉變為一家成長更快、利潤率更高、資本效率更高、更有彈性的企業。我們正在逐步擺脫在行業歷史的大部分時間裡一直拖累傳統汽車公司業績和估值的行為。

Our strong global product lineup is differentiated, offering customers freedom of powertrain choice and drove first quarter revenue of $43 billion up 3%. Our revenue has grown in each of the last 3 years, and we expect 2024 to be no different. Wholesales were down 1%, more than explained by the late quarter launch timing of the new F-150. We delivered $2.8 billion in adjusted EBIT with a margin of 6.5%, reflecting continued strength in Ford Pro.

我們強大的全球產品陣容具有差異化，為客戶提供動力系統選擇的自由，推動第一季營收成長 3%，達到 430 億美元。過去 3 年我們的收入每年都在成長，我們預計 2024 年也將如此。批發量下降 1%，這一下降幅度超出了新款 F-150 在季度末推出的影響。我們實現了 28 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，利潤率為 6.5%，反映了 Ford Pro 的持續強勢。

Costs were up $1.2 billion, but if you double-click on this, you'll see that $1.1 billion of that was investments in growth by Ford Pro, including new products. Ford Blue and Ford Model e costs were roughly flat, and we're on track to deliver $2 billion of cost efficiencies for the full year. Adjusted free cash flow was a use of $500 million, more than explained by the vehicles in inventory, and this impact will reverse in the second quarter.

成本增加了 12 億美元，但如果你雙擊它，你會發現其中 11 億美元是 Ford Pro 的成長投資，包括新產品。福特 Blue 和福特 Model e 成本基本上持平，我們預計全年實現 20 億美元的成本效率。調整後的自由現金流使用了 5 億美元，超出了庫存車輛的解釋，這種影響將在第二季扭轉。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion in cash and close to $43 billion in liquidity. And earlier this week, we also completed the renewal of our $18 billion corporate credit facilities, extending maturities by an additional year. Overall, our strong liquidity provides significant flexibility for us to invest in profitable growth. Consistent with our commitment to return 40% to 50% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders, today, we also declared a regular second quarter dividend of $0.15 per share payable June 3 to shareholders of record on May 8.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，擁有 250 億美元的現金和接近 430 億美元的流動性。本週早些時候，我們還完成了 180 億美元企業信貸額度的續簽，將期限延長了一年。整體而言，我們強大的流動性為我們投資於獲利成長提供了極大的靈活性。根據我們將調整後自由現金流的40% 至50% 返還給股東的承諾，今天，我們還宣布將於6 月3 日向5 月8 日登記在冊的股東派發每股0.15 美元的第二季度定期股息。

I'll spend a few minutes summarizing the financial performance of each of our customer-focused segments. And there's evidence in every one of them of how Ford+ is making our business stronger. Ford Pro delivered a 36% increase in revenue on a 21% increase in wholesales. The segment has consistently delivered year-over-year revenue growth each quarter since we re-segmented our business. EBIT more than doubled to $3 billion with a margin of 16.7%, reflecting increased Super Duty and Transit production, richer Super Duty mix and higher net pricing.

我將花幾分鐘總結我們每個以客戶為中心的細分市場的財務表現。每一項都證明了 Ford+ 如何讓我們的業務變得更強大。 Ford Pro 的收入成長了 36%，批發量成長了 21%。自從我們重新細分業務以來，該部門每季的營收都持續實現年比成​​長。息稅前利潤增長了一倍多，達到 30 億美元，利潤率為 16.7%，反映出 Super Duty 和 Transit 產量的增加、Super Duty 產品組合的豐富以及淨定價的提高。

In addition, over the past 12 months, roughly 13% of Ford Pro's EBIT came from software and physical services, on the glide path to reaching 20% in a few years. And this important revenue stream generates sticky and recurring gross margins in the 40% to 50% range. And as you can see, given the breadth and depth of Ford Pro's competitive moats, investments in growth drive tremendous operating leverage. The segment's results this quarter demonstrate the consistency, predictability and earnings power of this growth business.

此外，在過去 12 個月中，Ford Pro 約 13% 的息稅前利潤來自軟體和實體服務，幾年後將達到 20%。這項重要的收入來源可產生 40% 至 50% 範圍內的黏性和經常性毛利率。正如您所看到的，考慮到 Ford Pro 競爭護城河的廣度和深度，對成長的投資將帶來巨大的營運槓桿。該部門本季的業績證明了這一成長業務的一致性、可預測性和獲利能力。

Ford Model e generated a loss of $1.3 billion as significant industry pricing pressure more than offset flat costs as wholesales declined 20%. In the quarter, we took action to bring down inventory levels. For example, after being at a price premium to competition in 2023, we lowered pricing on Mustang Mach-E in the U.S. by 17%, bringing us in line with the 2-row crossover segment. And as Jim mentioned, we did see elasticity with an improved mix of higher trends. In the U.S., retail sales jumped 77% versus the total EV segment, which was up roughly 2.6%. Our total EV market share grew by 3.4 points to 7.5%, and Mach-E was the second best-selling e-SUV, only behind Tesla's Model Y. The bottom line is that we're more competitive and doing well in the marketplace. We've reduced our stock levels significantly, and the pace of sales has increased.

福特 Model e 虧損 13 億美元，因為批發量下降 20%，巨大的產業定價壓力足以抵銷固定成本。本季度，我們採取行動降低庫存水準。例如，在 2023 年以高於競爭對手的價格定價後，我們將美國野馬 Mach-E 的定價降低了 17%，使我們與 2 排跨界車細分市場保持一致。正如吉姆所提到的，我們確實看到了彈性與更高趨勢組合的改善。在美國，零售額成長了 77%，而電動車細分市場整體成長了約 2.6%。我們的電動車市場總份額成長了3.4 個百分點，達到7.5%，Mach-E 是第二暢銷的電動SUV，僅次於特斯拉的Model Y。在市場上表現良好。我們大幅減少了庫存水平，銷售速度也加快了。

In Ford Blue, revenue, wholesales, and EBIT were down, all impacted by the F-150 production ramp, and vehicles and inventory. EBIT margin was 4.2%, and our international operations continue to be profitable across the board. Ford Blue's global product portfolio remains strong and our hybrid sales continue to grow, up 36% in the quarter as we get the benefit of hybrid products planned years ago. Our global mix of hybrid is currently at 7%, up 2 points year-over-year with more products on the way. Additionally, China exports increased 33%, including Lincoln Nautilus, and that's consistent with our strategy to better leverage that asset-light footprint.

福特藍的收入、批發和息稅前利潤均下降，均受到 F-150 產量增加以及車輛和庫存的影響。息稅前利潤率為 4.2%，我們的國際業務持續全面獲利。 Ford Blue 的全球產品組合依然強勁，我們的混合動力銷量持續成長，本季成長了 36%，因為我們受益於多年前規劃的混合動力產品。我們的全球混合動力產品組合目前為 7%，較去年同期成長 2 個百分點，更多產品正在開發中。此外，包括林肯鸚鵡螺在內的中國出口成長了 33%，這與我們更好地利用輕資產足跡的策略是一致的。

Ford Credit generated EBT of $326 million. In the quarter, financing margin improved and credit loss performance continued to normalize and remains below our historical average. Importantly, we continued to see a high-quality book based on strong FICO scores, which continue to exceed 750. And as expected, auction values have declined by roughly 10% as lease return rates continue to normalize.

福特信貸產生的息稅前利潤為 3.26 億美元。本季度，融資利潤率有所改善，信貸損失表現持續正常化，仍低於歷史平均水準。重要的是，我們繼續看到一本基於強勁 FICO 分數的高品質書籍，該分數繼續超過 750。

So we're beginning to unlock the huge potential for customers and all of our stakeholders with the Freedom of Choice made possible by Ford+. There's plenty of work ahead to fulfill that potential. However, the progress we've made so far is undeniable. We're delivering growth and profitability, sharpening capital efficiency and fortifying the resilience of our business.

因此，我們開始利用福特+帶來的選擇自由，為客戶和所有利害關係人釋放巨大的潛力。要發揮這項潛力，還有大量工作要做。然而，我們迄今為止所取得的進展是不可否認的。我們正在實現成長和獲利，提高資本效率並增強業務彈性。

Accordingly, turning to our outlook, we continue to expect full year company adjusted EBIT of $10 billion to $12 billion and are tracking toward the high end of this range, and that would be a record for Ford. We're raising our adjusted free cash flow guidance to $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, supported by the underlying strength of the business and lower-than-planned CapEx. Our adjusted free cash flow guidance is consistent with our cash flow conversion target of 50% to 60%.

因此，展望我們的前景，我們繼續預計全年公司調整後息稅前利潤為 100 億至 120 億美元，並且正在朝著該範圍的高端發展，這將是福特的歷史記錄。在業務的潛在實力和低於計劃的資本支出的支持下，我們將調整後的自由現金流指引提高至 65 億至 75 億美元。我們調整後的自由現金流指引與我們 50% 至 60% 的現金流轉換目標一致。

We're tightening our CapEx range to $8 billion to $9 billion as the team adjusts to the dynamic EV landscape. We're scrutinizing every dollar and driving efficiencies that we believe could land us at the lower end of this revised CapEx range.

隨著團隊適應動態電動車格局，我們將資本支出範圍收緊至 80 億至 90 億美元。我們正在仔細審查每一美元並提高效率，我們相信這可能會使我們處於修訂後的資本支出範圍的下限。

Our outlook for 2024 assumes a flat to slightly higher SAAR in both the U.S. and Europe. Our planning assumption is -- for the U.S. is 16 million to 16.5 million units, full year of customer demand for all-new Super Duty contributing to better market factors for Ford Pro, industry supply demand normalizing. From a planning perspective, we're assuming lower industry pricing of roughly 2%, driven by higher incentive spending as we move through the year. We expect this to be partially offset by top line growth from the launch of our new products.

我們對 2024 年的展望假設美國和歐洲的 SAAR 持平或略高。我們的規劃假設是－美國的銷售量為 1,600 萬至 1,650 萬輛，全年客戶對全新 Super Duty 的需求將為福特 Pro 帶來更好的市場因素，產業供應需求正常化。從規劃的角度來看，我們假設產業定價較低約 2%，這是由於今年激勵支出增加所致。我們預計這將被新產品推出帶來的收入成長部分抵消。

There's no change to our segment outlook, which anticipates continued strength in Ford Pro leading to EBIT of $8 billion to $9 billion, and that's driven by the continued growth and favorable mix, partially offset by moderated pricing. As expected, a loss in the range of $5 billion (sic) [$5.5 billion] to $5 billion for Model e, driven by continued pricing pressure and investments in new vehicles; and for Ford Blue, EBIT of $7 billion to $7.5 billion, reflecting a balanced market equation and also cost efficiencies offsetting higher labor and product costs. And we expect Ford Credit's EBT to be about $1.5 billion, up slightly year-over-year.

我們的細分市場前景沒有變化，預計福特 Pro 的持續強勢將導致息稅前利潤達到 80 億至 90 億美元，這是由持續增長和有利的組合推動的，但部分被適度的定價所抵消。如預期，由於持續的定價壓力和新車投資，Model e 的虧損在 50 億美元（原文如此）[55 億美元]至 50 億美元之間； Ford Blue 的息稅前利潤為 70 億至 75 億美元，反映了平衡的市場方程式以及成本效率抵消了更高的勞動力和產品成本。我們預計福特信貸的 EBT 約為 15 億美元，比去年同期小幅增長。

Our performance this quarter continues to demonstrate the positive momentum of Ford+. Capital discipline is driving the right global footprint, portfolio of products and consistent cash generation. We continue to see growth opportunities and remain focused on delivering improvements in both quality and cost.

我們本季的業績持續展現了福特+的正面動能。資本紀律正在推動正確的全球足跡、產品組合和持續的現金產生。我們繼續看到成長機會，並繼續專注於提高品質和成本。

So that wraps up our prepared remarks, and we'll use the balance of the time to address what's on your mind. So thank you, and operator, please open up the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言就到此為止，我們將利用剩下的時間來解決您的想法。謝謝您，接線生，請撥打電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today is from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Adam Jonas。

I got one question for John and one for Jim. John, you were just on Bloomberg saying EVs are needed to meet compliance regulations. Now it's my understanding that Ford does not disclose penalties or ZEV credit purchases for Ford on clean air regulation. Can you confirm that? That's not disclosed, right?

我有一個問題想問約翰，也有一個問題想問吉姆。約翰，您剛剛在彭博社上表示需要電動車來滿足合規性法規。現在據我了解，福特並未披露福特在清潔空氣監管方面的處罰或 ZEV 積分購買。你能證實嗎？這還沒公開吧？

So let me clarify a few things, Adam, on that, is that it's not an option for us not to be compliant. If you don't comply with your ZEV or your greenhouse gas emissions requirements, you can't pay fines. What happens is you can't sell, and that's consistent across the industry. So it's -- that's for all OEMs. All OEMs are under those rules.

因此，讓我澄清一些事情，亞當，我們不能選擇不遵守規定。如果您不遵守 ZEV 或溫室氣體排放要求，則無法支付罰款。結果就是你賣不出去，這在整個產業都是一致的。所以這適用於所有原始設備製造商。所有 OEM 都遵守這些規則。

And so there's really 3 levers that we have. We can sell EVs and hybrids. We can sell fewer ICE, or we can contract to buy credits from another OEM. And when we do contract to buy credits, we will disclose that as we did in our 10-K at the end of the year. And so those are the 3 levers. And we, I would say, monthly, if not weekly, are working to optimize across those 3 levers to drive the highest profitability and the highest cash flow for the company.

所以我們實際上有 3 個槓桿。我們可以銷售電動車和混合動力車。我們可以減少銷售 ICE，或者可以簽訂合約從其他 OEM 購買積分。當我們簽訂購買積分的合約時，我們將像年底的 10-K 中那樣披露這一點。這就是 3 個槓桿。我想說，我們每個月（如果不是每週）都在努力優化這三個槓桿，以推動公司實現最高的獲利能力和最高的現金流。

So to continue to sell the ICE vehicles, we are going to need to sell EVs, and we're going to optimize across the profitability. Now the most important thing, as Jim said, is we need to get the EV business to stand on its own, to be profitable and return on the capital we've invested, and then all the levers will be accretive to Ford. And we'll be able to make it really positive. So that's what we're focused on, and that's what I intended to communicate earlier today.

因此，為了繼續銷售內燃機汽車，我們將需要銷售電動車，並且我們將優化獲利能力。正如吉姆所說，現在最重要的事情是我們需要讓電動車業務獨立，實現盈利並獲得我們投資的資本回報，然後所有槓桿都將為福特帶來增值。我們將能夠使其變得非常積極。這就是我們關注的重點，也是我今天早些時候想要傳達的內容。

Okay. But you did -- so you do disclose? You do disclose the ZEV? What was it?

好的。但你確實這麼做了——所以你確實透露了？你透露ZEV了嗎？它以前如何？

Yes, we disclosed last year in the 10-K that we had purchase commitments of $700 million.

是的，我們去年在 10-K 中揭露，我們有 7 億美元的採購承諾。

And will that increase this year?

今年這個數字還會增加嗎？

In the first quarter, there wasn't anything material. And as we go through the year, if it's the right lever to pull, as I said, as we're optimizing, we will report it.

第一季沒有任何實質內容。當我們度過這一年時，如果這是正確的槓桿，正如我所說，當我們正在優化時，我們會報告它。

All right. I appreciate that, John. Just my follow-up for Jim. Ford Pro is kicking butt. Okay? And at 10x EBIT, that business can be worth like double Ford's entire market cap. So the market is kind of implying that the rest of the business will be valued at negative many, many tens of billions.

好的。我很感激，約翰。這只是我對吉姆的後續行動。福特 Pro 正在全力以赴。好的？以 10 倍的息稅前利潤計算，該業務的價值相當於福特整個市值的兩倍。因此，市場有點暗示其餘業務的估值將達到負數數百億。

Seen another way, your stock -- I mean, this business is incredible. People would die to have this business. And I think folks are aware -- it's not a secret anymore, Jim, but people are aware of how good this business is. Yet your stock ranks 491 out of 500 companies in the S&P 500 on PE multiple.

從另一個角度來看，你的股票——我的意思是，這項業務令人難以置信。人們會為了這個生意而死。我認為人們都知道——這不再是秘密了，吉姆，但人們都知道這個生意有多好。然而，按照本益比計算，您的股票在標準普爾 500 指數 500 家公司中排名第 491 位。

Now Jim, I know you don't like it and I know you don't agree with it. But can you explain why does the market value -- your company is one of the lowest multiple companies in the world in any industry. Why -- try to rationalize that for me because it seems important that you, as a leader of this organization, understand that you can address that problem.

現在，吉姆，我知道你不喜歡它，我知道你不同意它。但是你能解釋為什麼你的公司的市場價值是世界上所有行業中本益比最低的公司之一嗎？為什麼——試著對我來說合理化這一點，因為作為這個組織的領導者，了解你可以解決這個問題似乎很重要。

Thank you, Adam. And first of all, thanks for your report on Pro. I appreciate you taking the time to understand the business. Look, I mean, we -- as John mentioned, we have to make tremendous progress on Model e. It's a huge drag not just on Ford but on our whole industry, even for pure-play EV players. So -- and we're very clear-eyed about that. We're very committed to transparency. A lot of OEMs will handle EVs very different.

謝謝你，亞當。首先，感謝您對 Pro 的報告。感謝您花時間了解業務。聽著，我的意思是，正如約翰所提到的，我們必須在 Model e 上取得巨大進展。這不僅對福特，而且對我們整個產業，甚至對純電動車廠商來說都是一個巨大的拖累。所以——我們對此非常清楚。我們非常致力於透明度。許多原始設備製造商對電動車的處理方式截然不同。

We won't -- it's like if we had an unprofitable regional business and we rolled it up and it wouldn't be transparent to investors. We would never do that. We're not going to do that with EVs, and we're not going to subsidize our Pro and Blue business by not being transparent about e. It's how we run the business.

我們不會——就像我們有一個無利可圖的區域業務，我們把它捲起來，對投資者來說就不透明了。我們永遠不會那樣做。我們不會在電動車上這樣做，我們也不會透過對電動車不透明來補貼我們的 Pro 和 Blue 業務。這就是我們經營業務的方式。

I think investors should understand for me as a leader is that we're going to build a sustainably profitable EV business with terminal value. And we -- and it needs to return the cost of capital on its own and not be subsidized as I mentioned.

我認為，身為領導者，投資人應該明白，我們將建立一個具有終端價值、可持續獲利的電動車業務。我們——它需要自行回報資本成本，而不是像我提到的那樣接受補貼。

And the real turning point for us not only is our flat cost in Model e this year, but most importantly, it will be the profitability in our next cycle of products. And I'm proud of the work that our team has done to make the adjustments in our capital spending and to make sure that all of our next EVs are profitable. And the evidence will be there. And I think that is the main drag on the company right now as it will be for our whole industry.

對我們來說真正的轉捩點不僅是今年 Model e 的成本不變，最重要的是我們下一個產品週期的獲利能力。我為我們的團隊為調整資本支出並確保我們所有的下一代電動車都能獲利而所做的工作感到自豪。證據就會在那裡。我認為這是目前公司面臨的主要阻力，對我們整個產業也是如此。

Blue is in really good shape. I wonder out loud, Adam, if everyone really understands the resilience of the Pro business over time. We're very profitable now, but we believe that this business will be profitable and durable for many years to come. And I'm not sure the full market understands that personally. I know you've gone through the business understanding the demand, and I encourage everyone to understand and ask us more questions about Pro. Thanks.

藍色的狀態真的很好。亞當，我大聲地想知道，是否每個人都真正了解專業業務隨著時間的推移的彈性。我們現在盈利能力很強，但我們相信這項業務在未來很多年都將盈利且持久。我個人不確定整個市場是否理解這一點。我知道您已經了解了需求，我鼓勵大家了解並向我們詢問更多有關 Pro 的問題。謝謝。

The next question is from John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林銀行的約翰‧墨菲。

The Freedom of Choice is a great marketing tool to go out to market with, and I think it's reasonably -- or should be very effective. But Jim, as you think about this, as the market is shifting towards hybrids at least in the near term, I'm just curious what kind of capacity you have to ramp up significantly in hybrids if the demand really is there.

選擇自由是一個很好的行銷工具，可以用來進入市場，我認為它是合理的——或者應該是非常有效的。但是吉姆，當你想到這一點時，由於市場至少在短期內正在轉向混合動力車，我只是好奇如果需求確實存在的話，你必須在混合動力車中大幅提高什麼樣的產能。

And if you think about sort of the competitive threat really coming from Toyota with a lot of capacity on this side, is there risk that there's market share losses to them over time? Or do you have the ability to really step up here? I think you mentioned something about 400,000 hybrids on an LTM basis. But can you do a whole lot more and really sort of garner your fair share of the market?

如果你考慮一下真正來自擁有大量產能的豐田的競爭威脅，隨著時間的推移，他們是否有市場佔有率損失的風險？或者說，你真的有能力站到這裡嗎？我想你提到了基於 LTM 的大約 400,000 個混合動力車。但你能做得更多，真正獲得公平的市佔率嗎？

John, we made a lot of capacity decisions several years ago on hybrid, and I'm very thankful we did. For example, we just radically increased the capacity for F-150 that we're launching now up to 25%. And it takes -- as you said, it takes a long time for suppliers to ramp to that capacity. It's not assembly capacity is a constraint. So that 400,000 is almost double what we did a couple of years ago. That was all very intentional.

約翰，幾年前我們就混合動力做出了很多容量決策，我非常感謝我們這麼做了。例如，我們剛剛將我們現在推出的 F-150 的產能大幅提高至 25%。正如您所說，供應商需要很長時間才能達到這種產能。這不是裝配能力是一個限制。所以這 40 萬幾乎是我們幾年前的兩倍。這都是非常有意的。

And we made the decision a couple of years ago to actually make hybrid more pervasive in our lineup, and we're actually now going to -- we've now committed publicly, we're going to offer hybrid on all of our vehicles across our lineup. And of course, the capacity has to be there. But if you look at the pricing premium today, which is maybe the most important thing to look for because now that contribution margin for hybrid is covering the cost of the hybrid incremental material cost, that's really meaningful development.

幾年前，我們決定讓混合動力在我們的產品陣容中更加普及，我們現在實際上已經公開承諾，我們將在我們的所有車輛上提供混合動力我們的陣容。當然，能力必須在那裡。但如果你看看今天的定價溢價，這可能是最重要的事情，因為現在混合動力的邊際貢獻已經涵蓋了混合動力增量材料成本的成本，這是真正有意義的發展。

And I think we're in good shape. Of course, our hybrid business is different than the others. We're #3 in the U.S. #1 and #2 is close Toyota and Honda. But our hybrid capacity is in trucks. That's where most of our hybrid sales are in North America. And we don't see a lot of competition so far for that business. We'll see over time.

我認為我們狀態良好。當然，我們的混合業務與其他業務不同。我們在美國排名第三。但我們的混合動力能力是在卡車上。我們的混合動力車銷售大部分集中在北美。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到該業務有太多競爭。我們會隨著時間的推移看到的。

So I feel really good about the decisions we made several years ago about our capacity expansion. Will it be more than 40% growth? It could be. And I think we have flexibility. Now we have really meaningful scale for our suppliers. A lot of our competitors will be starting from scratch.

因此，我對我們幾年前所做的產能擴張決定感到非常滿意。成長會超過40%嗎？它可能是。我認為我們有彈性。現在我們對供應商來說已經有了真正有意義的規模。我們的許多競爭對手將從頭開始。

And I have one follow-up on Pro. It seems like there's a lot of pent-up demand on the fleet side, both on commercial and government. I'm just wondering if you can comment though on that on sort of a unit basis as well as potentially a service basis and just really kind of talk about what kind of benefit that may sort of still garner towards for Pro, which is, as you said, shooting the lights out or we should say that. It seems like there's a lot of opportunity here still just from a market release of pent-up demand, and that might be even more structural over time.

我對 Pro 有一個後續行動。車隊方面似乎有很多被壓抑的需求，無論是商業還是政府方面。我只是想知道您是否可以在單位基礎上以及潛在的服務基礎上對此發表評論，並且真正談論一下仍然可以為 Pro 帶來什麼樣的好處，即，你說，把燈關掉，或者我們應該這麼說。市場釋放被壓抑的需求似乎仍然存在著許多機會，而且隨著時間的推移，這可能會更具結構性。

It's true. The demand on Pro is fundamentally different than retail. There's no doubt about it. Our retail customers are not refleeting. They're not doing roadworks and 5G infrastructure build-out. I mean these are all fundamental drivers. The ambulance market in the U.S., the average ambulance is 15 years old. I mean they've been waiting for Transits for a long time. We're now increasing our capacity, which is great. But I mean, we're oversubscribed on the new Super Duty 2:1.

這是真的。專業版的需求與零售版的需求根本不同。毫無疑問。我們的零售客戶並沒有反映出來。他們沒有進行道路施工和 5G 基礎設施建設。我的意思是這些都是基本驅動因素。美國救護車市場，救護車平均車齡為15年。我的意思是他們已經等待過境很久了。我們現在正在增加產能，這很棒。但我的意思是，我們對新的《Super Duty 2:1》已經超額認購了。

So I wish I could say we got that right. We didn't, but we are expanding capacity. I think -- and we have this freshest lineup that we've never had. So we have this kind of double opportunity. Our lineup is fresh. We have the most choice. At the same time, our customers are in kind of white-hot demand that we saw in retail 2 years ago during the supply shock. And we're doing everything we can to increase our capacity for our customers. It's very frustrating for them.

所以我希望我能說我們做對了。我們沒有，但我們正在擴大產能。我認為——我們擁有前所未有的最新鮮的陣容。所以我們有這樣的雙重機會。我們的陣容很新鮮。我們有最多的選擇。與此同時，我們的客戶正處於兩年前供應衝擊期間零售業看到的白熱化需求中。我們正在盡一切努力來提高我們為客戶服務的能力。這對他們來說非常令人沮喪。

The next question is from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

I'd love to get some more of your thoughts on capital allocation, including after in the release, you repeat the intention to return 40% to 50% of free cash flow to shareholders. I guess with CapEx coming further down and FCF up, there's more to return. But at the same time, targeting to return only up to half of what you generate obviously implies you want to continue to grow cash on hand despite the current $28 billion being well more than the over $20 billion that you've historically targeted.

我很想了解您對資本配置的更多想法，包括在新聞稿中，您重申了將 40% 至 50% 的自由現金流返還給股東的意圖。我想隨著資本支出進一步下降和自由現金流上升，會有更多回報。但與此同時，目標僅返回所產生資金的一半顯然意味著您希望繼續增加手頭現金，儘管目前的 280 億美元遠高於您歷史上超過 200 億美元的目標。

And of course, you've got lots of available liquidity beyond that, close to a record, I think. So just curious what might be driving the conservatism here, whether it relates to more macro or industry uncertainty or wanting to preserve some other optionality or for some contingency I'm not thinking of.

當然，除此之外，你還有大量可用的流動性，我認為接近創紀錄的水平。因此，我只是好奇是什麼推動了這裡的保守主義，是否與更多的宏觀或行業不確定性有關，或者想要保留其他一些選擇權，或者是為了一些我沒有想到的意外情況。

I think in the past when I've asked this question, you'd sort of point to the industry transition toward EVs. But seems like the last couple of quarters now, your focus is more on improving the EV business by trying to spend less, not needing to spend more to -- all right? So just wanted to check in how you're feeling about capital allocation, what you're seeing that caused you to want to be conservative now. And then what could cause you to potentially want to become more aggressive in the future?

我認為過去當我問這個問題時，你可能會指出產業向電動車的轉型。但似乎在過去的幾個季度裡，你們的重點更多地放在透過嘗試減少支出來改善電動車業務上，而不是需要花費更多——好嗎？因此，我只是想了解您對資本配置的感受，以及您所看到的導致您現在想要保持保守的原因。那麼什麼可能會讓你在未來變得更激進呢？

Yes, so thank you. So we have our stated policy, as you said, 40% to 50% of free cash flow. Our balance sheet is strong. Our cash position, we ended the year strong. We're at $25 billion this quarter when we talked about the fact that our guidance for this year went up. So when we look at it, we believe that right now in the transition point for the industry, we would rather invest in accretive growth opportunities.

是的，所以謝謝你。因此，正如您所說，我們有既定政策，即 40% 至 50% 的自由現金流。我們的資產負債表強勁。我們的現金狀況在今年結束時表現強勁。當我們談到今年的指導值上升時，本季我們的營收為 250 億美元。因此，當我們看待它時，我們認為目前處於行業的轉型點，我們寧願投資於增值成長機會。

And we've always said that if those opportunities don't come to fruition, then we'll need to look at other allocation decisions that we would need to make, but we're not there yet. So we're continuing to talk about this as a team consistently. But we think, at this point, the position we're at, we're comfortable with given where we're at in the transition. We'll pay out the 40%, 50% of free cash flow. The last couple of years, it's been at the high end of that range.

我們總是說，如果這些機會沒有實現，那麼我們將需要考慮我們需要做出的其他分配決策，但我們還沒有做到這一點。因此，我們作為一個團隊將繼續持續討論這個問題。但我們認為，考慮到我們目前所處的轉型階段，我們對目前所處的位置感到滿意。我們將支付 40%、50% 的自由現金流。過去幾年，它一直處於該範圍的高端。

And eventually, as we continue to execute on our Ford+ plan, if those accretive opportunities to allocate capital for additional accretive growth aren't there, then we'll look at other ways of returning that cash to our shareholders.

最終，隨著我們繼續執行我們的福特+計劃，如果不存在分配資本以實現額外增值增長的增值機會，那麼我們將考慮其他方式將現金返還給股東。

The next question is from Bruno Dossena with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bruno Dossena。

I wanted to ask in Model e. And I understand that reaching breakeven depends on the timing of the launch of the next-gen vehicles. But in the intermediate term, can you tell us how you're thinking about the trajectory of losses in e and specifically the potential to work down the structural costs associated with this business?

我想問 Model e 。據我了解，能否達到收支平衡取決於下一代汽車的推出時間。但從中期來看，您能否告訴我們您如何看待 e 的損失軌跡，特別是降低與該業務相關的結構成本的潛力？

Yes. So we are -- I don't know, it's a cliche, I guess, laser-focused on the -- all the costs around Model e. And for the year, when you look at -- well, let's just take it back up a second. The last couple of years, when you look at Model e, we've actually reduced the cost of our vehicles significantly. On Mach-E, we've taken over $5,000 of cost out, but the revenue keeps dropping faster than we're able to take out the cost. And we're being very thoughtful about what we're putting in as far as structural costs, et cetera.

是的。所以我們——我不知道，我猜這是陳詞濫調，專注於——圍繞 Model e 的所有成本。對於今年，當你看到——好吧，讓我們回顧一下。在過去的幾年裡，當你看看 Model e 時，你會發現我們實際上已經大幅降低了車輛的成本。在 Mach-E 上，我們已經削減了超過 5,000 美元的成本，但收入的下降速度比我們能夠削減成本的速度還要快。我們對結構成本等方面的投入非常深思熟慮。

And so we're going to continue to work on driving every dollar of cost out of the business in the near term. And if the pricing stabilizes and we don't see these significant reductions continuing across the industry, then I think that you could probably start to see some of those cost reductions flow to the bottom line. But so far, the last 12 to 18 months, it's just been a continuous march down on the top line, which is offsetting any of the savings we've had from a cost standpoint.

因此，我們將繼續努力在短期內降低業務中的每一美元成本。如果定價穩定下來，並且我們沒有看到整個行業持續大幅削減，那麼我認為您可能會開始看到其中一些成本削減流入利潤。但到目前為止，在過去 12 到 18 個月裡，營收一直在持續下降，從成本角度來看，這抵消了我們節省的任何費用。

So it's in our control. We have to take cost out. We know that. That's what we're marching towards. And we're understanding the dynamics and the competitiveness of the market equation as we set up the cost structure for our second-gen vehicles. And as Jim said, we pushed out the 3-row SUV because we need more cost to come out of that for that to be at the margin levels we expect.

所以它在我們的控制之中。我們必須去掉成本。我們知道。這就是我們正在努力的方向。當我們為第二代汽車製定成本結構時，我們正在了解市場的動態和競爭力。正如吉姆所說，我們推出了 3 排 SUV，因為我們需要更多的成本才能達到我們預期的利潤水平。

Okay. On a similar vein, the comments you made around cost and pricing for the Mach-E, if we look at your combustion, Blue and Pro, we see the costs are up $1.2 billion year-over-year, presumably from material content on some new launches, warranty, maybe offset by some savings. And we also see that pricing in these businesses is up about $1 billion. But can you give us some insight into if or when you'll see some improvement in variable costs relative to pricing and Ford beginning to close the variable cost gap compared to peers?

好的。同樣，您對 Mach-E 的成本和定價發表的評論，如果我們查看您的燃燒、Blue 和 Pro，我們會發現成本同比增加了 12 億美元，大概是由於某些材料的材料含量造成的。產品的推出、保修，可能會被一些節省所抵消。我們也看到這些業務的定價上漲了約 10 億美元。但是，您能否給我們一些見解，看看您是否或何時會看到相對於定價的可變成本有所改善，並且福特開始縮小與同行相比的可變成本差距？

Yes. So if you look at that, most of the cost this quarter was up in Ford Pro and is all related to the material costs for our new product launches, both the Super Duty and the Transit that we launched in Europe as well as manufacturing costs for the increased volumes that we're bringing across, as Jim mentioned. So that's what drove most of the cost increase in the quarter.

是的。因此，如果你看一下，本季的大部分成本都是福特 Pro 的成本上漲，並且都與我們新產品發布的材料成本（我們在歐洲推出的 Super Duty 和 Transit）以及製造成本有關。到的，我們帶來的數量不斷增加。因此，這就是本季成本成長的主要原因。

We're on track to deliver the $2 billion of cost reductions we talked about at the beginning of the year of raw manufacturing costs, material costs as well as freight and overhead. And so you'll start to see that really gain traction as we move through the second half of the year. And that's when you'll start to see it on our quarterly results.

我們預計將實現年初提到的 20 億美元的成本削減，包括原材料製造成本、材料成本以及運費和管理費用。因此，當我們進入今年下半年時，您將開始看到這確實獲得了關注。那時您將開始在我們的季度業績中看到這一點。

The next question is from Itay Michaeli with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Itay Michaeli。

Just 2 questions for me. First, back to Pro. With a $3 billion outcome in Q1, can you maybe talk about the puts and takes if I think about the rest of the year? And maybe should we think about the full year at the high end of the range?

只是問我 2 個問題。首先，回到Pro。第一季的業績為 30 億美元，如果我考慮今年剩下的時間，您能談談看跌期權和看跌期權嗎？也許我們應該考慮全年的高端情況？

And then going back to Model e, the press release did allude to EV costs improving going forward but an offset from top line pressure. I was hoping you could help dimension what you're assuming for EV prices the rest of the year. And as volume kind of responds to these price cuts, is there a level where Model e can still become contribution margin positive over the next 12-plus months?

然後回到 Model e，新聞稿確實暗示電動車成本未來將有所改善，但抵消了營收壓力。我希望您能幫助確定今年剩餘時間電動車價格的假設。隨著銷售量對降價做出反應，Model e 在未來 12 個多月內是否仍能實現正貢獻邊際收益？

So let me unpack that. So for the year, we're not projecting where -- or sharing where we expect the cost to come down. If you look at what recently happened in the quarter when it comes to pricing on Model e, we had entered the year assuming that prices would come down about 20%. They came down much more than that. We had to take our prices down [another] 17% to remain competitive and mask competition in -- as we went through the quarter.

那麼讓我來解開它。因此，今年我們不會預測成本會下降的地方，也不會分享我們預計成本會下降的地方。如果你看看本季最近發生的 Model e 定價情況，你會發現我們在進入這一年時就假設價格會下降約 20%。他們的跌幅遠不止於此。在整個季度中，我們必須將價格再降低 17%，以保持競爭力並掩蓋競爭。

So we've seen prices coming down quite dramatically, and that's why we haven't been able to keep up from a cost reduction standpoint. Look, we're targeting to take out as much cost this year as we can on Model e and all in the spirit of driving towards that contribution margin positive so we can have some leverage as we move volumes through the chain. So that definitely is our intention as we continue to work on Model e in the near term.

因此，我們看到價格大幅下降，這就是為什麼我們無法從降低成本的角度跟上。看，我們的目標是今年在 Model e 上盡可能多地支出成本，並本著推動貢獻邊際收益為正值的精神，這樣我們就可以在整個供應鏈中提高銷量時擁有一些槓桿作用。因此，這絕對是我們的意圖，因為我們在短期內繼續開發 Model e。

On Pro, obviously, Q1, Pro is really structured not necessarily on traditional demand like retail. It's actually deliveries. So our delivery volume in Q1, it's kind of -- it's a cyclical business globally, and we have a lot of strong delivery in the first quarter just because of the contractual agreements with our customers, including fleetail.

顯然，在 Pro 上，第一季度，Pro 確實是按照零售等傳統需求建構的。其實就是送貨。因此，我們第一季的交付量在全球範圍內屬於週期性業務，我們在第一季的交付量非常強勁，這只是因為與我​​們的客戶（包括fletail）簽訂了合約協議。

And when you look at the rest of the year, we have shutdowns. There are a lot of other -- we have launches. There are a lot of reasons why we feel really comfortable, even with the strong result in the first quarter, that our guidance is still accurate for Ford Pro given all the puts and takes.

當你看看今年剩下的時間時，我們會停工。還有很多其他的——我們已經發布了。儘管第一季取得了強勁的業績，但我們感到非常放心的原因有很多，考慮到所有的看跌期權，我們對福特 Pro 的指導仍然是準確的。

But we'll revisit in the second quarter. We'll see how pricing lands. We're going to be doing quite a bit of fleetail business this quarter as well as looking at locking in pricing for some of our large corporate fleets later in the year. So we're going to learn a lot more this quarter on whether there's tailwinds or headwinds on Pro.

但我們將在第二季重新審視。我們將看看定價如何落地。本季我們將開展大量的機隊業務，並考慮在今年稍後鎖定一些大型企業機隊的價格。因此，我們將在本季了解更多關於 Pro 是否有利的資訊。

The next question is from Joseph Spak with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Joseph Spak。

Jim, first to start, I appreciate all the commentary you talked about on the F-150 launches and as well as Super Duty and Mustang and some of the improvement there. As you mentioned, you've got some other big launches coming up later this year, I think Explorer and a number of others. So was the lesson learned that you will go more cautious and careful? And is that -- should we expect a slower ramp-up than we've seen historically for some of these new launches later in the year?

Jim，首先，我感謝您對 F-150 的發布以及 Super Duty 和 Mustang 的所有評論以及其中的一些改進。正如您所提到的，今年稍後您還將推出其他一些大型產品，我認為是 Explorer 和其他一些產品。那麼你是否吸取了教訓，會更加謹慎小心呢？那麼，我們是否應該預計今年稍後推出的一些新產品的成長速度將比歷史上看到的要慢？

I would say we're seeing real benefits to our customers and the company, I believe, long term in taking this new approach to launches. It also requires our industrial system under Kumar to work differently, solve problems, to do different kinds of testing, and that goes into kind of our longer-term lessons learned. And we're now really spending a lot of time on long-term durability, which is an area where Ford has standards but maybe didn't look to lead the industry, which we now look to.

我想說的是，我相信，從長遠來看，採用這種新的發布方式會為我們的客戶和公司帶來真正的好處。它還要求庫馬爾領導下的我們的工業體係以不同的方式工作、解決問題、進行不同類型的測試，這將成為我們學到的長期經驗教訓。我們現在確實在長期耐用性上花費了大量時間，這是福特有標準的領域，但可能不希望引領業界，而我們現在希望引領業界。

And so we're not going to change our approach to these launches. We think this new more measured approach with more physical testing, a lot more time for problem solving for our team is the right approach for the company in the midterm and long term.

因此，我們不會改變這些發布的方法。我們認為，這種新的更謹慎的方法，包括更多的物理測試，為我們的團隊提供更多的時間來解決問題，是公司中長期的正確方法。

We do have some very significant launches coming up. We have Explorer and Aviator as you mentioned, which are high volume in both North America. And in China, we have a new wave, we call Wave 2 for the 1-ton Transit in Europe, which is super profitable. And we're going to be building and launching the higher-end derivatives of that. We have the Bronco in China. I mean I can go on and on. We have a freshened Maverick and Bronco Sport coming and even more models than that.

我們確實即將推出一些非常重要的產品。正如您所提到的，我們有 Explorer 和 Aviator，它們在北美的銷量很高。在中國，我們有一個新的浪潮，我們稱之為歐洲 1 噸 Transit 的第二波，這是超級有利可圖的。我們將建造並推出其更高端的衍生品。我們在中國有Bronco。我的意思是我可以繼續說下去。我們即將推出煥然一新的 Maverick 和 Bronco Sport 以及更多型號。

So given all that complexity, it's actually even more important for us to take our time. And it may -- like quarter 1, it may mean that in some quarter ends, we may have some company stock and plans to make sure that we do the right thing on quality. So our earnings may be a little bit lumpy. We'll see how that works out based on this new approach.

因此，考慮到所有這些複雜性，對我們來說，慢慢來實際上更重要。就像第一季一樣，這可能意味著在某個季度末，我們可能會擁有一些公司股票併計劃確保我們在品質方面做正確的事情。所以我們的收入可能有點不穩定。我們將看看基於這種新方法的效果如何。

Okay. And just back to the hybrid conversation because, as you pointed out, your hybrid portfolio is much different than a Toyota or a Honda. It's pretty limited. I think you only have like 3 hybrids right now. But how should we think about scaling that to the rest of the portfolio as you mentioned? Is it really like taking existing power plants you have and trying to sort of fit it -- make it fit on more models? Or are there real new investments that need to be made for hybrids?

好的。回到混合動力對話，因為正如您所指出的，您的混合動力產品組合與豐田或本田有很大不同。這是相當有限的。我想你們現在只有大約 3 個混合動力車。但是，正如您所提到的，我們應該如何考慮將其擴展到投資組合的其餘部分？這真的就像採用您現有的發電廠並嘗試對其進行某種程度的安裝 - 使其適合更多型號嗎？或者是否需要對混合動力進行真正的新投資？

It's a good question. So I would say mostly, it's taking our current internal combustion engines and adding new hybrid components and doing the engineering to fit that. Look, look at the T6 platform. We had the Ranger. We had the Everest [stuff]. We have the Bronco. That's an obvious candidate. We have our full-size SUVs candidate. We have the Explorer platform. And I think we're lucky. We have the right engines. Some of them may have to go to an Atkinson cycle engine from a normal combustion cycle.

這是一個好問題。所以我想說，主要是採用我們目前的內燃機，添加新的混合動力組件，並進行工程設計以適應這一點。看，看T6平台。我們有遊騎兵。我們有珠穆朗瑪峰[東西]。我們有野馬。這是一個明顯的候選人。我們有全尺寸 SUV 候選車型。我們有 Explorer 平台。我認為我們很幸運。我們有合適的引擎。其中一些可能必須從正常燃燒循環進入阿特金森循環引擎。

We have the components in our system from the hybrid, the torque splitting devices that -- we do have to up the investment in some capacities like our hybrid transmissions, but we've made the decision to do that already, and that's in our spending plan this year. I think we're in really good shape. It doesn't require wholesale inventing new powertrains, but it does involve some engineering and investment in capacity. I would say kind of modest investments, mostly in the capacity side and some engineering.

我們的系統中有來自混合動力系統的組件，即扭矩分配裝置，我們確實必須增加對混合動力變速箱等某些功能的投資，但我們已經決定這樣做，這已經在我們的支出中了。計劃。我認為我們的狀態非常好。它不需要大規模發明新的動力系統，但確實涉及一些工程和產能投資。我想說的是適度的投資，主要是在容量方面和一些工程方面。

The next question is from Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

It sounds like you're pretty optimistic about pickup demand, but I think there's media reports that some of the data showing pricing was a bit weak in Q1, inventories look pretty high. So are you seeing any risks in the market? And where do you see pricing for some of these models coming for the rest of the year, I guess, now that you got maybe some of the 2023s out? And then where should inventory really end?

聽起來你對皮卡需求相當樂觀，但我認為有媒體報告稱，一些數據顯示第一季的定價有點疲軟，庫存看起來相當高。那麼您認為市場有風險嗎？我想，既然你可能已經發布了一些 2023 年車型，那麼今年剩餘時間裡，你對其中一些車型的定價有何看法？那麼庫存到底該在哪裡結束呢？

Yes. So what you saw in pickups for us as we came out of the end of last year into the first quarter of this year here in the U.S. is we built up stock as we knew we were coming into the launch. So we built stocks of '23 models. And then we were selling those down in the first quarter throughout the majority of the quarter. And that's why you saw, to stay competitive with our competitors who had '24 year model pickup trucks, we saw some top line come down. So we had higher incentives to sell the '23 model year longer through the quarter.

是的。因此，當我們從去年年底進入今年第一季在美國的皮卡時，您看到的是我們累積了庫存，因為我們知道我們即將推出。因此我們建立了 23 款車型的庫存。然後我們在第一季的大部分時間都在出售這些產品。這就是為什麼您會看到，為了與擁有 24 年型號皮卡車的競爭對手保持競爭力，我們看到一些收入下降。因此，我們有更大的動力在本季延長 23 款車型的銷售時間。

You see now that our '24 F-150s are at dealers and selling, they're turning in about 7 days, you'll see, as you look at the data, that our average transaction prices are going up and our incentive spend is coming down because of the (inaudible) year mix. So that's a big part of what moved it for us on pickup trucks. And it was -- because we're such a big player, it was moving in (inaudible)

您現在看到，我們的24 架F-150 已在經銷商處出售，大約7 天即可交付，您會看到，當您查看數據時，我們的平均交易價格正在上漲，我們的激勵支出正在上漲由於（聽不清楚）年份組合而下降。所以這是我們用皮卡車運送它的一個重要部分。它是 - 因為我們是一個如此大的參與者，它正在移動（聽不清楚）

I just want to emphasize, I don't think there's a brand out there that has a Maverick. That's pretty much alone in the segment, and we still are in a supply shock for Maverick. It's one of our fastest-growing vehicles. We have an all-new F-150 with a hybrid option, as John said, turning really fast. We have a Super Duty on the Pro side that's oversubscribed 2:1, and we have a brand-new Ranger. So we're a bit of a unicorn in the sense that, yes, we're big, and there is some risk. But I would say the risk is for people who have aged product. And I think Ford is in a particularly advantaged situation.

我只是想強調，我認為沒有一個品牌擁有 Maverick。這在該領域幾乎是獨一無二的，而且我們仍然面臨 Maverick 的供應衝擊。它是我們成長最快的車輛之一。正如約翰所說，我們有一輛帶有混合動力選項的全新 F-150，轉向速度非常快。我們在 Pro 方面有一個 Super Duty，其超額認購率為 2:1，並且我們有一個全新的 Ranger。因此，從某種意義上說，我們有點像獨角獸，是的，我們很大，而且有一些風險。但我想說的是，對於使用老化產品的人來說，風險是存在的。我認為福特處於特別有利的境地。

And what about inventory levels? I think some of the data is showing at the high 90s ending up March kind of coming down to...

庫存水準又如何呢？我認為一些數據在 3 月結束時顯示為 90 多歲，有點下降到...

Yes, that's come down considerably, and if you look at us on an overall basis, our dealer day supply is mid-50s.

是的，這個數字已經大幅下降，如果你從整體來看我們，我們的經銷商日供應量是 50 多美元。

Yes. We're completely out of stock on Rangers. Maverick is like 30-day supply or something like that. F-150 came down because we had quite a few '23s. But now with the launch and the quality effort, I think the stocks are really in good shape. And Super Duty, we have very few in stock for retail.

是的。我們的流浪者隊完全缺貨了。 Maverick 就像 30 天的供應量或類似的東西。 F-150 被擊落是因為我們有很多 23 年代的飛機。但現在隨著產品的推出和品質方面的努力，我認為這些股票的狀況確實良好。至於 Super Duty，我們的零售庫存很少。

Yes. So you've got to look at the dealer day supply, and that's in a good place.

是的。所以你必須看看經銷商日的供應量，這是一個很好的地方。

And just as a follow-up, maybe a color on industry pricing. What is sort of embedded in your guidance at this point? And how is pricing holding up, I guess, sequentially because I think some of the comps are a little tough with launches year-over-year?

作為後續行動，也許是行業定價的一個顏色。目前您的指導包含哪些內容？我想，由於我認為一些比較產品的發布有點困難，所以我猜定價是如何連續保持的？

Yes. First quarter, pricing held up pretty well Q4 into Q1. From a planning perspective, we assume that the industry, we expect to see pricing pressure of about 2% negative pricing across the industry. And it really comes back to affordability. Many folks across the industry have been talking about pricing coming down, though what -- and it hasn't. And again, we saw in the first quarter that it remained pretty robust.

是的。第一季度，第四季至第一季的定價保持良好。從規劃的角度來看，我們假設產業，我們預期整個產業將面臨2%左右的負定價壓力。這確實回到了負擔能力。整個行業的許多人一直在談論價格下降，但事實並非如此。再次，我們在第一季看到它仍然相當強勁。

But we keep looking at it from an affordability standpoint, from the consumer perspective. And when you look at where consumers were pre COVID, then we had the supply shocks and we had a very imbalance between supply and demand, but now as that's normalized, we would expect that affordability should go back to where it was pre COVID, and that's about 13% to 14% of monthly disposable income. And you also have to factor in right now, with interest rates, that payment prices have gone up. Insurance rates have gone up as well as maintenance rates.

但我們一直從負擔能力的角度、從消費者的角度來看它。當你看看消費者在新冠疫情之前的情況時，我們遇到了供應衝擊，供需之間非常不平衡，但現在隨著這種情況的正常化，我們預計負擔能力應該回到新冠疫情之前的水平，並且大約是每月可支配收入的 13% 到 14%。而且你現在還必須考慮到利率的影響，支付價格已經上漲。保險費率和維護費率都漲了。

And so when you take all that together, we think about affordability, we say, okay, if you're going to be back towards that range of affordability for the consumer, then prices are going to have to come off a couple of points or so across the industry. And so that's how we think about it and that's what we have planned. And we'll see where that runs with Q2 and then as we go through the second half of this year.

因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們會考慮負擔能力，我們說，好吧，如果你要回到消費者的負擔能力範圍，那麼價格將必須下降幾個點或所以整個行業。這就是我們的想法和計劃。我們將看看第二季以及今年下半年的情況。

The next question is from Tom Narayan with RBC.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的湯姆·納拉揚 (Tom Narayan)。

Jim, we heard from your guys' commentary that if EV prices, those drops stabilized, then the losses would lessen. But as we've heard from some of the earnings yesterday, Tesla, GM, it seems like the opposite is happening. It seems like OEMs are trying to make cheaper EVs and that pricing is really only going to go lower. I guess -- and how confident are you that you could reduce EV losses in this environment if EV prices just keep on going down?

吉姆，我們從你們的評論中得知，如果電動車價格的跌幅穩定下來，那麼損失就會減少。但正如我們昨天從特斯拉、通用汽車的一些財報中聽到的那樣，情況似乎恰恰相反。原始設備製造商似乎正在嘗試生產更便宜的電動車，而價格實際上只會更低。我想，如果電動車價格繼續下跌，您對在這種環境下減少電動車損失有多大信心？

So when you look at it, it's clear that when the EV craze started, right, it was -- it looked like demand was going to be well long supply. But that was with the early adopters and they were willing to pay a higher price. What we're finding with being in the marketplace is that EV prices are normalizing, and our early majority customers are not willing to pay a premium. And that's what we're seeing.

因此，當你看到它時，很明顯，當電動車熱潮開始時，對，看起來需求將遠遠超過供應。但這是針對早期採用者的，他們願意支付更高的價格。我們在市場上發現的是，電動車價格正在正常化，而我們的早期大多數客戶不願意支付溢價。這就是我們所看到的。

And so we think that prices for EVs are going to normalize around where gas is and the consumer is going to weigh the value proposition of that propulsion choice, either for their duty cycle, what works for them, either it's going to be an EV or a traditional ICE engine or a diesel or a hybrid. And pricing is going to have to be relatively consistent across all choices of propulsion, and a customer will make a choice based on the value of that. And that's how we're building the business model for electric vehicles.

因此，我們認為電動車的價格將在汽油價格周圍正常化，消費者將權衡該推進選擇的價值主張，無論是其工作週期，什麼對他們有效，要么是電動汽車，要么是電動汽車傳統的內燃機或柴油或混合動力。所有動力選擇的定價必須相對一致，客戶將根據其價值做出選擇。這就是我們建構電動車商業模式的方式。

I don't think that you're going to find that you're going to have electric vehicles well below gas prices unless there's so much capacity pushing against the demand curve, and it's an imbalance on that end of it. But eventually, rational players will have to come to the marketplace. So...

我認為你不會發現電動車的價格遠低於汽油價格，除非有如此多的產能推動需求曲線，在需求曲線的一端存在不平衡。但最終，理性的參與者將不得不進入市場。所以...

We launched our first small SUV this year in Europe in Cologne, our Explorer. It's a 2-row crossover. It's a relatively small vehicle certainly in the U.S. And you can expect, as I mentioned several times, that our new affordable platform will be used for most of our volume in their next cycle of product.

今年，我們在歐洲科隆推出了第一款小型 SUV，也就是我們的 Explorer。這是一個 2 行交叉。在美國，這肯定是一款相對較小的車輛。

What's really exciting for us is that we see an opening in the market. We see a lot of brands having to launch compliance vehicles that lose money, and they probably don't want to sell a lot of volume but they have to. We believe that we can be profitable at $25,000 to $30,000, so it's a huge opportunity for Ford.

對我們來說真正令人興奮的是我們看到了市場的機會。我們看到許多品牌不得不推出虧損的合規工具，他們可能不想銷售大量產品，但他們不得不這樣做。我們相信我們可以獲利25,000到30,000美元，所以這對福特來說是一個巨大的機會。

And what we're learning with BlueCruise and our Protiviti software on Pro is that all those vehicles will be great platforms for software and services. And so we're really excited about that new more affordable vehicle lineup starting with Explorer in Europe this year.

我們從 BlueCruise 和 Protiviti Pro 軟體中了解到，所有這些車輛都將成為軟體和服務的絕佳平台。因此，我們對今年從歐洲推出的 Explorer 開始推出的更實惠的新車型陣容感到非常興奮。

And maybe as a follow-up, maybe this is something that could help here, is battery raw mat costs. We have lithium down like 80% since it peaked in 2022. Could you just remind us of how your contracts work? I think there's -- we've heard from some other OEMs that there's still some benefits to come, actually getting better given how contracts work, and you could actually see some benefits on battery raw mats later in the year.

也許作為後續行動，電池原料成本可能會有所幫助。自 2022 年達到高峰以來，我們的鋰價格下跌了約 80%。我認為，我們從其他一些原始設備製造商那裡聽說，仍然會有一些好處，考慮到合約的運作方式，實際上會變得更好，而且你實際上可以在今年晚些時候看到電池原材料墊的一些好處。

Yes, we're seeing the same thing. We're no different.

是的，我們看到了同樣的事情。我們沒有什麼不同。

I would say that the biggest leverage on the battery cost is still going to be taking nickel out of them and those kind of things. It's great to see the easing of some of the raw materials, and that will definitely cascade into our business, depending on our contracts. I think the most important thing strategically is to get to new chemistries that have a lot less expensive materials in them. And we see that right around the corner at Ford. And we're changing our launch timing to take advantage of that.

我想說，對電池成本的最大影響仍然是從電池中去除鎳之類的東西。很高興看到一些原材料的寬鬆，這肯定會影響到我們的業務，這取決於我們的合約。我認為戰略上最重要的事情是獲得含有更便宜材料的新化學物質。我們在福特就看到了這一點。我們正在改變我們的發佈時間來利用這一點。

Our final question today is from James Picariello with BNP Paribas Exane.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

Just back on Joe's question regarding this year's heavy slate of model launches. I know the hyperfocus is on improved launch quality. I believe, Jim, you mentioned at some point Ford Pro lost $1 billion in profit last year from a more delivered Super Duty launch, excluding the impact from the strike. My question is, we already saw the F-150 refresh this quarter result in 60,000 units getting pushed. Is there a risk to Ford Blue's guide from lower launch volumes? Is this already factored into the range? Or is it mainly expected Ford will [avoid] any material slowdown from here?

回到喬關於今年大量車型發布的問題。我知道重點是提高發射品質。吉姆，我相信你曾提到福特 Pro 去年因推出更多交付的 Super Duty 而損失了 10 億美元的利潤（不包括罷工的影響）。我的問題是，我們已經看到本季 F-150 的更新導致 60,000 台被推售。福特藍的指南是否會因發布量下降而面臨風險？這是否已計入範圍內？或者主要是預計福特將[避免]從這裡開始出現任何實質放緩？

It's already factored in.

它已經被考慮在內了。

Already factored in. Okay. That was easy. Can you also -- can you just unpack how the implied ASP for Model e in the quarter finished in the $10,000 to $14,000 range? And then just given the slow volume start to the year, should we still be expecting modest full year growth for Model e?

已經考慮進去了。那很簡單。您能否解釋一下本季 Model e 的隱含平均售價是如何在 10,000 美元至 14,000 美元範圍內完成的？鑑於今年開局銷量緩慢，我們是否仍應期待 Model e 全年適度增長？

Yes, we expect high single-digit growth in the Model e, primarily with the launch of the Explorer, as Jim mentioned, in Europe. When you look at the average selling price, with the math, it's difficult because of the quarter. So we had quite a few units in stock. And as we saw the competitive pricing in the industry come down, we took our prices down, too. So then we had to take the prices down of all units in stock equally, and that was about $300 million of impact there. So when you look at the tenth of revenue for the quarter for Model e, you need to add that $300 million in, if you want to do the math based on the wholesales in the quarter.

是的，我們預計 Model e 將實現高個位數成長，這主要是隨著 Explorer 在歐洲的推出，正如 Jim 所提到的。當你查看平均售價時，透過數學計算，由於季度的原因，這很困難。所以我們有相當多的庫存。當我們看到行業內有競爭力的價格下降時，我們也降低了價格。因此，我們必須同等降低所有庫存單位的價格，這造成了約 3 億美元的影響。因此，當您查看 Model e 本季收入的十分之一時，如果您想根據本季度的批發量進行計算，則需要添加 3 億美元。

Got it. Maybe my first question doesn't count given how easy the answer is. Just on the $2 billion in material manufacturing cost savings for this year, I know there are not going to be clean numbers that stand out in the bridge quarter-to-quarter. But can you just give a high-level assessment on the progress to date? What initiatives are really showing through? And any color you're willing to share on first half versus second half timing on those initiatives?

知道了。也許我的第一個問題不算數，因為答案很簡單。僅就今年 20 億美元的材料製造成本節省而言，我知道在每個季度的橋樑中不會有清晰的數字。但您能否對迄今為止的進展進行一個高水準的評估？哪些措施真正得到體現？對於這些舉措的上半場和下半場時間安排，您願意分享什麼顏色嗎？

Yes. So majority of them are going to be towards the second half. I'm really encouraged by the progress that Kumar and the industrial platform are making around the design changes. And those design changes are trying to be implemented as we get the new model year changeover in the second half and as we bring vehicles online in the second half. So that's one area where I've seen tremendous progress by the Ford teams. They're working on those design reductions to come through.

是的。因此，他們中的大多數人將在下半年進行。 Kumar 和工業平台圍繞設計變更的進展讓我深受鼓舞。當我們在下半年進行新車型年份轉換以及在下半年將車輛上線時，這些設計變更正在嘗試實施。因此，這是我看到福特團隊取得巨大進步的領域。他們正在努力減少設計。

The other area we're seeing progress is in manufacturing, and Bryce and his team, they're working to drive efficiencies to help offset the increases we have this year based on the contract that we signed last year. So in both areas, I'm seeing green shoots there. And Liz is doing a really nice job on the supply chain side as well. We've got better systems and tools and processes. We're working more collaboratively with the supply base. She's changing the culture. And so across all 3 of those areas in the industrial platform between what Kumar is doing, leading the team with Bryce and Liz, we're seeing green shoots, and we're confident on the $2 billion this year but mostly timed towards the second half.

我們看到進展的另一個領域是製造業，布萊斯和他的團隊正在努力提高效率，以幫助抵消我們今年根據去年簽署的合約所增加的成本。因此，在這兩個領域，我都看到了萌芽。莉茲在供應鏈方面也做得非常好。我們擁有更好的系統、工具和流程。我們正在與供應基地進行更多合作。她正在改變文化。因此，在 Kumar 與 Bryce 和 Liz 領導的團隊所做的工業平台的所有 3 個領域中，我們看到了萌芽，我們對今年 20 億美元充滿信心，但主要是在第二年一半。

And one of the most important priorities for us as a team is to take that cost out and improve quality at the same time. So on the design side, for example, we have specific windows where the team can make design changes and not to -- protect our quality. I just want to emphasize that because we're trying to do both at the same time, improve quality and improve our costs in the industrial system. And to do that, we have to be very intentional.

作為一個團隊，我們最重要的優先事項之一是降低成本並同時提高品質。例如，在設計方面，我們有特定的窗口，團隊可以在其中進行設計更改，而不是保護我們的品質。我只是想強調，因為我們正在努力同時做到這兩點，提高品質並降低工業系統的成本。為此，我們必須非常有意識。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

福特汽車公司 2024 年第一季財報電話會議至此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。