福特汽車 (F) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Ford Motor Company 2023 Fourth Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加福特汽車公司 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Lynn Antipas Tyson。請繼續。

Thank you, Gary, and welcome to Ford Motor Company's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; and John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit; Kumar Galhotra, COO of Ford; and Marin Gjaja, COO of Model e.

謝謝加里，歡迎參加福特汽車公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長吉姆法利 (Jim Farley)；約翰‧勞勒（John Lawler），財務長。福特信貸執行長 Marion Harris 也加入了我們的問答環節； Kumar Galhotra，福特首席營運長；以及 Model e 營運長 Marin Gjaja。

Today's discussion includes some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content at shareholder.ford.com. Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 25.

今天的討論包括一些非 GAAP 參考資料。這些數據與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計準則衡量標準進行了調整。您可以在股東.福特.com 上找到該簡報以及我們其餘的獲利資料和其他重要內容。我們的討論還包括有關我們期望的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。第 25 頁列出了可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素。

Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis. Included in our earnings deck this quarter is a table of our global wholesales for 2023. With nameplate detail by segment and major geography, this is a roll forward of the detail we shared with you last March at our teach-in in our new segmentation.

除非另有說明，所有比較均為逐年比較。公司息稅前利潤、每股盈餘和自由現金流均經過調整。本季度的收益表中包括我們2023 年的全球批發量表。按細分市場和主要地理位置列出了銘牌詳細信息，這是我們去年3 月在新細分市場的宣講會上與您分享的詳細資料的前滾。

Lastly, I want to call out a few near-term IR engagements. Next week, February 15, Jim Farley and John Lawler will participate in a fireside chat in New York with Rod Lache at the Wolfe Global Auto, Auto Tech, and Mobility Conference. February 22, Navin Kumar, CFO of Ford Pro, will participate in a fireside side chat in Miami with Dan Levy at the Barclays Industrial Conference. We do plan to run this call about 15 minutes longer, so that will take us to 15 minutes after the hour. We want to leave ample time for your questions.

最後，我想談談一些近期的投資人關係活動。下週，即 2 月 15 日，吉姆·法利 (Jim Farley) 和約翰·勞勒 (John Lawler) 將在紐約沃爾夫全球汽車、汽車技術和移動會議上與 Rod Lache 一起參加爐邊談話。 2 月 22 日，Ford Pro 財務長 Navin Kumar 將在邁阿密巴克萊工業會議上與 Dan Levy 一起參加爐邊談話。我們確實計劃將這通通話延長約 15 分鐘，這樣我們就可以在整點後 15 分鐘進行通話。我們希望為您的問題留出充足的時間。

Jim, I'll turn the call over to you.

吉姆，我會把電話轉給你。

Thank you, Lynn, and hi, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Last year turned out to be a fundamental year, a foundational year for our company. We launched some amazing...

謝謝你，林恩，大家好。感謝您加入我們。去年是基礎的一年，也是我們公司的基礎年。我們推出了一些令人驚奇的...

Pardon me, this is the conference operator. We seem to have lost audio from the speaker's location. Please standby as we regain the signal.

對不起，這是會議接線生。我們似乎失去了揚聲器所在位置的音訊。請等待我們恢復訊號。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Pardon me, this is the conference operator. We have rejoined audio with the main speaker location. Sir, please continue.

對不起，這是會議接線生。我們已將音訊與主揚聲器位置重新連接。先生，請繼續。

Hi, everyone. I'm not sure where we got cut off, but I want to just highlight how important last year was not only financially but a foundational year for our team. Our power of choice and our powertrains really came through, and you can really see that on the F-Series, which I'll talk about in a second. Our global hybrid sales were up 20% last year, and we expect them to be up 40% this year. We're now the #1 and #2 best-selling hybrid trucks in the U.S. Maverick is #1, and we're the #3 hybrid brand in the U.S. behind Toyota and Honda. But unlike them, our hybrids really sell best on trucks for our side.

大家好。我不確定我們在哪裡被切斷，但我想強調去年不僅在財務上非常重要，而且對我們團隊來說也是基礎年。我們的選擇力量和我們的動力系統確實得到了體現，你可以在 F 系列上看到這一點，我稍後會談到。去年我們的全球混合動力銷量成長了 20%，預計今年將成長 40%。我們現在是美國排名第一和第二的最暢銷混合動力卡車。Maverick 排名第一，我們是美國排名第三的混合動力品牌，僅次於豐田和本田。但與他們不同的是，我們的混合動力車在我們這邊的卡車上賣得最好。

We launched some awesome tech. BlueCruise just passed 150 million miles of hand-free use, but more importantly, the growth is up 25% quarter-over-quarter and the gross margins for BlueCruise are at 70-plus percent, the same for Ford Pro Intelligence. And boy, can Ford do work vehicles. The new Super Duty and Transit are off to great starts as is the new Ranger. We are really focused as a team on the segmentation. You can see the speed, the accountability for results and focus within the company.

我們推出了一些很棒的技術。 BlueCruise 的免持使用里程剛超過 1.5 億英里，但更重要的是，季度環比增長 25%，BlueCruise 的毛利率達到 70% 以上，福特 Pro Intelligence 的毛利率也達到了 70% 以上。天哪，福特可以生產工作車輛嗎？新款 Super Duty 和 Transit 以及新 Ranger 都有一個好的開始。作為一個團隊，我們確實專注於細分。您可以看到公司內部的速度、結果責任和重點。

And our underlying business is getting better, as John will show. Despite the UAW strike, our auto profits were up year-over-year. We returned to investment grade, we have higher ROIC, and we have really solid conversion from profits to cash. We're returning capital to shareholders; we're declaring a regular and a special dividend; and we're getting much more disciplined on capital not just where we allocate, but more importantly, how much we spend and when.

正如約翰將展示的那樣，我們的基礎業務正在變得更好。儘管發生了美國汽車工人聯合會罷工，我們的汽車利潤仍同比增長。我們回到了投資級別，我們有更高的投資回報率，而且我們從利潤到現金的轉換確實很紮實。我們正在向股東返還資本；我們宣布派發定期股息和特別股息；我們在資本方面變得更加嚴格，不僅是在哪裡分配，更重要的是，我們花費多少以及何時花費。

Our Integrated Services are really accelerating under Peter Stern. These are high-growth, high margin, as I said, and much less cyclical profits for us. We have one single leader, Kumar Galhotra, on our industrial system and he is laser focused on quality and cost. And our international operations have made a remarkable turnaround after a lot of difficult restructuring. It's the second year we made profit. It's about a $3 billion turnaround compared to just 3 or 4 years ago. And what would surprise people is what a juggernaut Ranger has become. It's a global franchise and it's our second best-selling nameplate globally, just behind F-Series and ahead of Super Duty.

在彼得·史特恩的領導下，我們的綜合服務確實在加速發展。正如我所說，這些都是高成長、高利潤，對我們來說週期性利潤就更少了。我們的工業系統只有一位領導者，庫馬爾·加爾霍特拉 (Kumar Galhotra)，他非常關注品質和成本。經過多次艱難的重組後，我們的國際業務取得了顯著的轉變。這是我們第二年獲利。與三、四年前相比，這相當於 30 億美元的轉虧為盈。而讓人驚訝的是，遊騎兵已經變成了這樣的主宰者。它是一個全球特許經營產品，也是我們全球第二暢銷的品牌，僅次於 F 系列，領先 Super Duty。

Now John is going to go into last year's results. It was a solid year, but I want to be really clear, we are nowhere near our earnings potential for Ford Motor Company. And we are really positioned well this year for growth and profitability, for revenues as well. I'm going to cover 4 key areas. The first area is Ford Pro. It's nearly a $60 billion high-margin hardware, software and physical services business and most of that revenue is reoccurring. I believe Ford Pro is where the industry is going, an integrated business between all 3 of those factors. And we're seeing it first there because the customers use the vehicle more intensely and are more willing to pay for software. And we believe the attributes of Ford Pro are undervalued, but the performance will reveal that over time and look at the performance last year.

現在約翰要談談去年的結果。這是堅實的一年，但我想明確的是，我們遠遠沒有達到福特汽車公司的獲利潛力。今年我們在成長和獲利能力以及收入方面確實處於有利位置。我將討論 4 個關鍵領域。第一個區域是福特Pro。這是一個價值近 600 億美元的高利潤硬體、軟體和實體服務業務，其中大部分收入都是重複產生的。我相信福特 Pro 是該行業的發展方向，是所有這三個因素之間的綜合業務。我們首先在那裡看到它，因為客戶更頻繁地使用車輛並且更願意為軟體付費。我們認為福特 Pro 的屬性被低估了，但隨著時間的推移，看看去年的表現，它的表現將會揭示這一點。

Ford Pro doubled its EBIT to $7 billion despite a significant slowdown on Super Duty during the launch in the name of quality. And we're now on track for mid-teen EBIT margins at Pro. And you're going to see top and bottom line growth this year in Pro. We have the freshest product lineup in Ford's work history in 2 decades. Our order banks are exceeding our supply. And the reason why that order bank is so strong is fundamentally different economic factors than our retail business.

儘管 Super Duty 在推出期間以品質為名大幅放緩，但福特 Pro 的息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 翻了一番，達到 70 億美元。現在，我們的 Pro 息稅前利潤率預計將達到中位數。今年您將看到 Pro 的營收和利潤成長。我們擁有福特 20 年來最新鮮的產品陣容。我們的訂單銀行超出了我們的供應量。而訂單銀行之所以如此強大，與我們的零售業務有著根本不同的經濟因素。

What I mean by that is, look at North America. We're really dominant. We do really well on state and local government Pro sales. These are very profitable. And last year, state and local governments increased their spending by $75 billion or 16%, and a sizable portion of that is in infrastructure and people need Super Duties and Transits. Look at the build-out of telecom and 5G, directly correlates to our robust revenues. And the same is happening in the manufacturing sector in the U.S. with reshoring or onshoring manufacturing.

我的意思是，看看北美。我們確實占主導地位。我們在州和地方政府專業銷售方面做得非常好。這些都是非常有利可圖的。去年，州和地方政府的支出增加了 750 億美元，即 16%，其中很大一部分用於基礎設施建設，而人們需要超級關稅和交通。看看電信和 5G 的建設，它們與我們強勁的收入直接相關。美國製造業也發生了同樣的情況，製造業回流或在岸。

Dealers are clamoring for more Pro allocation. They normally get only 50% to 75% of the volume they want. And in Europe, it's the ninth straight year of Ford being the best-selling CV brand, and we're just in the middle of launching the Super Duty of Europe, the Transit Custom and the new Ranger is now ramping up.

經銷商們強烈要求更多的 Pro 分配。他們通常只能獲得所需數量的 50% 到 75%。在歐洲，這是福特連續第九年成為最暢銷的 CV 品牌，我們剛推出 Super Duty of Europe、Transit Custom，而新款 Ranger 正在加速推出。

Why do we think we're undervalued in Pro? Well, there's a couple of reasons. The first is our market leadership is a little bit opaque. We don't just lead in Pro, we dominate. We're 40% of the market share of Class 1 through 7 full-sized trucks and vans. In fact, many months, our second-place competitor isn't even half our size.

為什麼我們認為自己在 Pro 中被低估了？嗯，有幾個原因。首先是我們的市場領導地位有點不透明。我們不僅在 Pro 中領先，而且佔據主導地位。我們擁有 1 至 7 類全尺寸卡車和貨車 40% 的市場份額。事實上，很多個月以來，我們的第二名競爭對手的體型甚至還不到我們的一半。

Now commercial -- commanding that share means that we are dominant in vocations like service construction, utility and, as I said, government. But our biggest success is in TAMs where the market's biggest: small- and medium-sized businesses and tradespeople. That's the backbone of the U.S. economy, and boy, does Ford have a reputation with those customers.

現在是商業領域——掌握這一份額意味著我們在服務建設、公用事業以及我所說的政府等行業中佔據主導地位。但我們最大的成功在於市場最大的 TAM：中小型企業和商人。這是美國經濟的支柱，天哪，福特在這些客戶中享有盛譽嗎？

Our second big moat is outfitters. Again, very difficult for investors to see but this is really significant. Every one of our landscapers, plumbers, electricians, they all upfit their Transits and Super Duties and Rangers specific to their vocation. So these upfitters and it being really important. We now have already developed a digital upfit integration system, and we share engineering specs with all those upfitters. We've been working with them for decades and they really trust Ford. They're even able to move their upfit equipment from old Fords to new Fords.

我們的第二條護城河是戶外用品商。同樣，投資者很難看到這一點，但這確實很重要。我們的每一位園林設計師、水管工、電工都根據自己的職業配備了運輸工具、超級職責和護林員。所以這些裝修者真的很重要。我們現在已經開發了一個數位改裝整合系統，並且我們與所有改裝者共享工程規格。我們已經與他們合作了幾十年，他們非常信任福特。他們甚至能夠將改裝設備從舊福特汽車轉移到新福特汽車。

The third big moat is a growing one. It's software and our physical repair business. Example of that is last year, we already have 0.5 million active software paid subscriptions at Pro. It's up 46% and the margins are over 50%. In 2 years, we expect software and services to drive 20% of the Pro EBIT. And that's supported by 2 things: getting to 60% mix on our connected vehicles and a threefold increase in our attach rates for those paid subscriptions that I mentioned, which are only at about 12% today.

第三條護城河正在不斷成長。這是軟體和我們的實體維修業務。以去年為例，我們在 Pro 上已經擁有 50 萬個活躍軟體付費訂閱。它上漲了 46%，利潤率超過 50%。兩年內，我們預計軟體和服務將佔 Pro 息稅前利潤的 20%。這得到了兩件事的支持：我們的連網車輛的混合率達到 60%，以及我提到的那些付費訂閱的附加費率增加了三倍，而目前的附加費率僅為 12% 左右。

One of the biggest advantages we have in Pro that's hard for people to see is our physical repair network. It costs a lot of money to create, costs decades of time and there's a lot of expertise. In the U.S., we have 23,000 service bays that are busy 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, and we're pressing on that advantage. Every day, we have new, very large service elite repair centers launching in the U.S. We haven't waited for brick-and-mortar. We now have 1,200 vans and Super Duties that are outfitted for remote service to our fleet customers. The Net Promoter Score is 10 points higher because they don't have to come on to the dealership. And this has effectively added 10% more capacity for our service.

我們在 Pro 中擁有的最大優勢之一是人們很難看到的，那就是我們的實體維修網路。它的創建需要大量資金、數十年的時間以及大量的專業知識。在美國，我們有 23,000 個服務站，每週 7 天、每天 24 小時繁忙，我們正在充分利用這一優勢。每天，我們都會在美國開設新的超大型服務精英維修中心。我們還沒等到實體店。我們現在擁有 1,200 輛貨車和 Super Duties，可為我們的車隊客戶提供遠端服務。淨推薦值高出 10 分，因為他們不必去經銷店。這有效地為我們的服務增加了 10% 的容量。

The bottom line is, we have these amazing vehicles. We have a leading market share position. We're now adding long-term durability of those products. We have a highly profitable alternative revenue streams in repair and software now. Ford Pro is really a magical breakthrough for our customers and our company and, I believe, the industry.

最重要的是，我們擁有這些令人驚嘆的車輛。我們擁有領先的市場佔有率。我們現在正在增加這些產品的長期耐用性。我們現在在維修和軟體方面擁有高利潤的替代收入來源。對於我們的客戶、我們的公司以及我相信的整個行業來說，福特 Pro 確實是一個神奇的突破。

Quality. We don't have to go into the negative effects about quality, but we've been addressing it for 3 years now and we're starting to see progress. Our vision is that we want to give customers who buy our trucks and vans and our passion products, off-road, Bronco, all of it, the long-term durability from companies like Toyota and Honda, but in the segments we compete in.

品質.我們不必討論品質的負面影響，但我們已經解決這個問題三年了，並且開始看到進展。我們的願景是，我們希望為購買我們的卡車和貨車以及我們的熱情產品、越野、野馬等所有產品的客戶提供來自豐田和本田等公司的長期耐用性，但在我們競爭的細分市場中。

We already have world-class quality in many parts of our company, and now we're seeing green shoots in North America. Kumar is leading this and he's here for Q&A to answer any questions. But there are 2 aspects of quality I want to highlight. The first is launch quality. That Super Duty launch I mentioned, it was a line in the sand for this management team. We intensified all of our testing, our real-world problem-solving on the plant floor with our suppliers and engineers. We slowed down the launch and boy, did it cost us. $1 billion of EBIT we forego last year, but it was the right trade-off for our company and our customers.

我們公司的許多部門已經擁有世界一流的質量，現在我們在北美看到了萌芽。庫馬爾（Kumar）負責領導這項工作，他在這裡進行問答，回答任何問題。但我想強調品質的兩個面向。首先是發射質量。我提到的 Super Duty 的推出，對這個管理團隊來說是一條底線。我們加強了所有測試以及與供應商和工程師在工廠車間解決實際問題的能力。我們放慢了發射速度，天啊，這讓我們付出了代價嗎？去年我們放棄了 10 億美元的息稅前利潤，但這對我們公司和客戶來說是正確的權衡。

The result is the launch spike that every launch has we think on Super Duty is now similar to best-in-class in our industry, and we're seeing the benefits in the F-150 launch. That launch is underway right now and it's a really important one for our company. The second area of quality we're seeing progress on is initial quality. Now we measure that in 3 months in service. And that is highly correlated to long-term quality, and yes, warranty costs. And we saw last year a 10% increase. That is the largest improvement in the similar quality that we saw last time in 2016. It's the best in a long time and we are committing to a similar improvement this year.

結果是，我們認為 Super Duty 的每次發布都與我們行業中的同類最佳產品類似，而且我們在 F-150 的發布中看到了好處。該發布目前正在進行中，這對我們公司來說非常重要。我們看到的第二個品質方面的進展是初始品質。現在我們用 3 個月的使用時間來衡量這一點。這與長期品質以及保固成本高度相關。去年我們看到了 10% 的成長。這是我們上次在 2016 年看到的同類品質的最大改進。這是很長一段時間以來最好的，我們致力於今年實現類似的改進。

Quality now factors into 70% of the short-term incentives for our management at Ford. In the long term, it's even more important because we're measuring total shareholder return. We will share those KPIs on quality with you every quarter.

現在，品質已成為福特管理層 70% 的短期激勵因素。從長遠來看，這一點更為重要，因為我們正在衡量股東總回報。我們每季都會與您分享這些品質 KPI。

Next thing I'd like to highlight is EVs. Now some have portrayed the change in the EV market as Darwinian. That could be a slow evolutionary change, but we think this has been a seismic change in the last 6 months of last year. That will rapidly sort out winners and losers in our industry. Now the catalyst for that seismic change is a combination of EV manufacturers cutting their price by 20% across all major geographies and a tremendous amount of capital flowing and a ton of new capacity into one single segment: 2-row crossovers.

接下來我想強調的是電動車。現在，有些人將電動車市場的變化描述為達爾文式的。這可能是一個緩慢的進化變化，但我們認為這是去年最後 6 個月的巨大變化。這將迅速選出我們行業的贏家和輸家。現在，這一巨大變化的催化劑是電動車製造商在所有主要地區將價格降低 20%，以及大量資本流動和大量新產能流入一個細分市場：2 排跨界車。

Our overall EV strategy has never been more relevant as the seismic change happens, and we want to share with you our targets. Our next Gen 2 products will be profitable in the first 12 months of their launch. And that will mean that we'll get to mid to high single-digit EBIT profit margins over their life cycle, and that's going to deliver profits above Model e's cost of capital. And here are our big bets and adjustments. We're going to spend less capital on larger EVs. And as we've always said, we'll have a very small number of those.

隨著巨大變化的發生，我們的整體電動車策略從未如此重要，我們希望與您分享我們的目標。我們的下一代第二代產品將在推出後的前 12 個月內實現盈利。這意味著我們將在其生命週期內達到中高個位數的息稅前利潤率，這將帶來高於 Model e 資本成本的利潤。這是我們的大賭注和調整。我們將在大型電動車上花費更少的資金。正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們的數量將非常少。

We're going to focus those large EVs on geographies and product segments where we have a dominant advantage like trucks and vans. And those products will have breakthrough efficiency compared to our Gen 1 products, and they're going to be packed with innovations that customers are going to be excited to pay for. We're also adjusting our capital, switching more focus on to smaller EV products. Now this is important because we made a bet in silence 2 years ago. We developed a super-talented skunk works team to create a low-cost EV platform. It was a small group, small team, some of the best EV engineers in the world, and it was separate from the Ford mothership.

我們將把這些大型電動車的重點放在我們擁有主導優勢的地區和產品領域，如卡車和貨車。與我們的第一代產品相比，這些產品將具有突破性的效率，並且它們將充滿客戶將興奮地付費的創新。我們還在調整資本，將更多注意力轉向小型電動車產品。現在這很重要，因為我們兩年前就默默下了賭注。我們培養了一支才華橫溢的臭鼬工廠團隊來創建低成本電動車平台。這是一個小團體，小團隊，有一些世界上最好的電動車工程師，而且它與福特母艦是分開的。

It was a start-up. And they've developed a flexible platform that will not only deploy to several types of vehicles but will be a large installed base for software and services that we're now seeing at Pro. All of our EV teams are ruthlessly focused on cost and efficiency in our EV products because the ultimate competition is going to be the affordable Tesla and the Chinese OEMs. And that bet and all of the rightsizing of capital and even delays to some of our products, given the market realities, better balance growth, profits and returns for us.

這是一家新創公司。他們開發了一個靈活的平台，不僅可以部署到多種類型的車輛上，而且將成為我們現在在 Pro 上看到的軟體和服務的大型安裝基礎。我們所有的電動車團隊都無情地關注電動車產品的成本和效率，因為最終的競爭將是價格實惠的特斯拉和中國原始設備製造商。考慮到市場現實，這項賭注以及所有資本規模調整，甚至是我們某些產品的延遲，可以更好地平衡我們的成長、利潤和回報。

But one of the things we're taking advantage of and taking some timing delays is rationalizing the level and timing of our battery capacity to match demand and actually reassessing the vertical integration that we're relying on and betting on new chemistries and capacities. Our overall EV business will grow this year because we have the Explorer launching in Europe and really exciting, many of our commercial vehicles launched with electric this year as we refresh the lineup. We will also align production and inventory for customer demand. EV customers are also helping us in a very critical area of software quality. They really, really are teaching us a lot. And this is a critical place where I think we're ahead as a company.

但我們正在利用並採取一些時間延遲的事情之一是合理化我們的電池容量的水平和時間以滿足需求，並實際上重新評估我們所依賴的垂直整合並押注於新的化學物質和容量。我們的整體電動車業務今年將會成長，因為我們在歐洲推出了探索者，令人興奮的是，隨著我們更新產品陣容，我們今年推出了許多電動商用車。我們還將根據客戶需求調整生產和庫存。電動車客戶也在非常關鍵的軟體品質領域為我們提供幫助。他們真的、真的教了我們很多。我認為這是我們公司處於領先地位的關鍵領域。

Why are we making these changes in our EV business and capital allocation? Well, because we learned as an early leader, as we scale the EVs and hybrids simultaneously. The demand curve turns out to be for EV is very different than ICE. We've seen an explosive growth in EVs in 2021 and 2022, and we realize very quickly that our first 3 Gen 1 products, we didn't have enough capacity. With EV growth, but as well importantly, the COVID supply shocks and the chip crisis itself and Tesla's ability to make vehicles despite the chip crisis in '21 and '22 and the 0 cost of capital gave us too optimistic of a demand signal at that time, and it drove a temporary spike in supply.

為什麼我們要對電動車業務和資本配置進行這些改變？嗯，因為我們作為早期領導者在同時擴展電動車和混合動力車時學到了很多。事實證明，電動車的需求曲線與內燃機汽車的需求曲線非常不同。我們看到電動車在 2021 年和 2022 年爆炸式增長，我們很快就意識到我們的第一個 3 Gen 1 產品沒有足夠的產能。隨著電動車的成長，但同樣重要的是，新冠肺炎供應衝擊和晶片危機本身，以及儘管21 和22 年晶片危機以及0 資本成本，但特斯拉製造汽車的能力，讓我們對當時的需求訊號過於樂觀。時間，並導致供應暫時激增。

As the COVID shock retreated, we learned that as you scale EVs to 5,000 to 7,000 units a month and you move into the early majority customer, they are not willing to pay a significant premium for EVs. This is a huge moment for us. What we've seen, because we offer everything, is pricing quickly converged to hybrids after any benefit from subsidies. Now Tesla found out this first but we were right behind that, and they were very exposed to early majority. But we learned very quickly, and I want to say that no one will be immune to this reality. The most obvious indicator of this reality is looking at total revenue, not units for EVs.

隨著新冠疫情衝擊的消退，我們了解到，當您將電動車的產量擴大到每月 5,000 至 7,000 輛並成為早期多數客戶時，他們不願意為電動車支付高昂的溢價。這對我們來說是一個重要的時刻。我們所看到的是，因為我們提供一切，在獲得補貼後，定價很快就趨於混合動力車。現在，特斯拉首先發現了這一點，但我們緊隨其後，而且他們非常容易接觸到早期大眾。但我們學得很快，我想說，沒有人能免於這個現實的影響。這現實最明顯的指標是總收入，而不是電動車的銷售量。

Look at the U.S. market. EV total revenue was down in the second half of last year versus Q2. If you look at unit volumes, they were up. That is a really important insight we learned in being a first mover. The same thing happened in China, the same thing happened in Europe. Our data shows that EVs are a clear destination for many customers based on their unique duty cycle. It's going to take time, more than we expected 18 months ago. But we are seeing big adoption variances by geography, and that's why the power of choice at Ford is so important and a big advantage for us. We're betting that choice and flexible manufacturing is going to get us successfully through this transition.

看看美國市場。去年下半年電動車總收入較第二季下降。如果你看一下單位銷量，你會發現它們有所上升。這是我們作為先行者學到的非常重要的見解。同樣的事情也發生在中國，同樣的事情也發生在歐洲。我們的數據顯示，電動車因其獨特的工作週期而成為許多客戶的明確目的地。這需要時間，比我們 18 個月前的預期還要長。但我們看到不同地區的採用率有很大差異，這就是為什麼福特的選擇權如此重要，對我們來說是一個巨大的優勢。我們相信選擇和靈活的製造將使我們成功地度過這一轉變。

Look at the best-selling vehicle in the United States, the F-150. We have a Lightning, we have a hybrid and high volume and a nice choice. In Q4, in California, our mix was 50% hybrid and EV F-150 and 50% ICE. 1,000 miles away in Dallas, it was only 15% hybrid and EV, 85% ICE. You go around the world, you'll see same variations. Hybrids will play an increasingly important role in our industry's transition and will be here for the long run.

看看美國最暢銷的車輛—F-150。我們有閃電，我們有混合動力和大容量，是個不錯的選擇。第四季度，在加州，我們的混合動力車型為 50% 混合動力和 EV F-150，以及 50% ICE。 1,000 英里外的達拉斯，只有 15% 是混合動力和電動車，85% 是內燃機汽車。你走遍世界，你會看到同樣的改變。混合動力將在我們產業的轉型中發揮越來越重要的作用，並將長期存在。

Hybrid just fits specific customer use cases. On a Maverick pickup truck, our hybrid is focused on mileage and efficiency and they do the math very clearly, and they don't have to change their behaviors. On F-150 Hybrid, they get the same benefits even when they're toeing on fuel efficiency, but we throw in Pro Power Onboard on top of that to displace a very expensive generator cost. And margins on hybrids are closer to ICE, much higher than EV margins. The journey on EVs is inevitable in our eyes and we have a bright future of EVs. We're adjusting our capital and we're giving customers choice.

混合只適合特定的客戶用例。在 Maverick 皮卡車上，我們的混合動力系統專注於里程和效率，他們的數學計算得非常清楚，而且他們不必改變自己的行為。在 F-150 Hybrid 上，即使在註重燃油效率的情況下，它們也能獲得相同的好處，但我們在此基礎上添加了 Pro Power Onboard，以取代非常昂貴的發電機成本。混合動力車的利潤率更接近內燃機汽車，遠高於電動車的利潤率。在我們看來，電動車的旅程是不可避免的，我們擁有電動車的光明未來。我們正在調整我們的資本，並為客戶提供選擇。

Last thing I want to mention is talent. None of these breakthroughs in our company operationally or financially or in technical excellence and innovation are going to happen without the right talent. And we've learned that the right talent is not sufficient. Over the last 2 years, it's been imperative that we go to a right performance management system. It's a fundamental change in the way we're running the company. We now truly differentiate and reward excellence at Ford, and that matches our operation and our business delivery. It's a massive culture change.

最後我想提的是人才。如果沒有合適的人才，我們公司在營運、財務或技術卓越和創新方面的這些突破都不會實現。我們了解到，僅有合適的人才是不夠的。在過去的兩年裡，我們必須採用正確的績效管理系統。這是我們公司營運方式的根本性改變。現在，我們真正區分並獎勵了福特的卓越表現，這與我們的營運和業務交付相匹配。這是一場巨大的文化變革。

Evolving to a compensation and benefit structure weighed more towards variable compensation that is tied to our delivery business results is fantastic. You can't bring in and retain the best talent without making this change. And now our long-term incentives and our short-term incentives are tied specifically to shareholder value creation. Over to you, John.

向與我們的交付業務績效相關的可變薪酬更加重視的薪酬和福利結構的發展是非常棒的。如果不做出這種改變，你就無法引進並留住最優秀的人才。現在，我們的長期激勵措施和短期激勵措施都與股東價值創造具體掛鉤。交給你了，約翰。

Thanks, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. So 2023 was an important year as we continued to execute our Ford+ plan. Our strong global product line, which is clearly resonating with our customers, delivered revenue of $176 billion, which was up 11%, marking our second consecutive year of double-digit growth. We delivered $10.4 billion in adjusted EBIT, at the high end of our guidance, driven by continued strength in both Blue and Pro.

謝謝吉姆，大家下午好。我們感謝您今天加入我們。因此，2023 年是我們繼續執行「福特+」計畫的重要一年。我們強大的全球產品線顯然引起了客戶的共鳴，實現了 1,760 億美元的收入，成長了 11%，標誌著我們連續第二年實現兩位數成長。在 Blue 和 Pro 持續強勁的推動下，我們實現了 104 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，處於我們指導的最高水平。

Now to provide some perspective, compared to last year collectively, our core business units, Pro, Model e, and Blue, improved EBIT by $2 billion or 26%, and this is after fully absorbing roughly $1.7 billion impact of the UAW strike. Free cash flow was $6.8 billion, generating a free cash flow conversion rate of 65%. And this is above the top end of our target range and was driven by underlying strength in both Pro and Blue. Now both of these metrics provide a good litmus test for the effectiveness of our Ford+ strategy.

現在提供一些視角，與去年相比，我們的核心業務部門 Pro、Model e 和 Blue 的 EBIT 提高了 20 億美元或 26%，這是在完全吸收了 UAW 罷工的約 17 億美元的影響之後。自由現金流為 68 億美元，自由現金流轉換率為 65%。這超出了我們目標範圍的上限，並且是由 Pro 和 Blue 的潛在優勢推動的。現在，這兩個指標都為我們的福特+策略的有效性提供了良好的試金石。

Our balance sheet remains strong with nearly $29 billion in cash and more than $46 billion in liquidity. And this provides considerable flexibility to manage our business as the industry continues to transform. With the improving trajectory of our business and strong free cash flow, we announced a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share plus a supplemental dividend of $0.18 per share. This brings our payout ratio to 50% for the year, in line with our target to consistently return 40% to 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，擁有近 290 億美元的現金和超過 460 億美元的流動性。隨著產業的不斷轉型，這為我們的業務管理提供了相當大的靈活性。隨著我們業務的改善和強勁的自由現金流，我們宣布每股 0.15 美元的季度股息以及每股 0.18 美元的補充股息。這使我們今年的股利支付率達到 50%，符合我們持續向股東返還 40% 至 50% 自由現金流的目標。

Now let's take a closer look at our performance. Revenue for the quarter was $46 billion, up 4% despite the impact of the strike, which cost us roughly 90,000 units of production. Adjusted EBIT came in at $1.1 billion with an EBIT margin of 2.3%, which again included the impact of the strike.

現在讓我們仔細看看我們的表現。儘管受到罷工的影響，我們的產量減少了約 9 萬件，但本季的營收仍達到 460 億美元，成長了 4%。調整後息稅前利潤為 11 億美元，息稅前利潤率為 2.3%，其中也包含了罷工的影響。

Now let's look at our segments. Ford Pro delivered another strong quarter with revenue up 11%, EBIT of $1.8 billion was up 25% with a margin of 11.8%. Full year results clearly demonstrated the potential earnings power of this growth business. Revenue jumped 19% and EBIT more than doubled year-over-year to $7.2 billion, an improvement of $4 billion. And with a margin of 12.4%, we're just shy of our mid-teen target.

現在讓我們看看我們的細分市場。福特 Pro 季度業績再次強勁，營收成長 11%，息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 成長 25%，達到 18 億美元，利潤率為 11.8%。全年業績清楚地證明了這項成長業務的潛在獲利能力。營收成長 19%，息稅前利潤年增一倍以上，達到 72 億美元，增加 40 億美元。我們的利潤率為 12.4%，距離中位數目標只差一點點。

The strengths Jim highlighted for Ford Pro are differentiated and drove strong results this year and have Pro poised for another strong year in 2024.

Jim 強調的福特 Pro 的優勢是與眾不同的，並在今年取得了強勁的業績，並為 Pro 在 2024 年再創輝煌做好了準備。

Ford Model e drove a 14% increase in wholesales in the quarter, a 2% increase in revenue and EBIT loss of $1.6 billion. For the year, wholesales were up 20%, revenue was up 12% and EBIT was a loss of $4.7 billion. Both the quarter and year were impacted by challenging market dynamics and investments in next-generation vehicles, both of which Jim addressed in his remarks.

福特 Model e 本季批發量成長 14%，營收成長 2%，息稅前利潤損失 16 億美元。全年批發量成長 20%，營收成長 12%，息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 虧損 47 億美元。本季和年度均受到充滿挑戰的市場動態和下一代汽車投資的影響，吉姆在演講中談到了這兩個問題。

In the quarter, Ford Blue revenue was flat despite the loss of roughly 60,000 units due to the strike. EBIT was $813 million with a margin of 3.1%. For the year, Ford Blue grew again with revenue up 8%. All of our regions are now profitable and contributing significantly to Blue's bottom line results. EBIT of $7.5 billion was up year-over-year with a margin of 7.3%. The improvement in EBIT reflects the underlying strength of our product portfolio, dampened by higher warranty and the UAW-related costs.

儘管因罷工而損失了約 6 萬輛福特藍，但本季福特藍的營收仍持平。息稅前利潤為 8.13 億美元，利潤率為 3.1%。今年，福特藍再次實現成長，營收成長 8%。我們所有的地區現已實現盈利，並為 Blue 的盈利做出了重大貢獻。息稅前利潤為 75 億美元，年增 7.3%。息稅前利潤的改善反映了我們產品組合的潛在實力，但受到更高保固和UAW相關成本的削弱。

Turning to Ford Credit. Ford Credit generated EBT of $280 million in the quarter and $1.3 billion for the year. As expected, full year results were down year-over-year. Credit loss performance continues to normalize but remains below our historical average.

轉向福特信貸。福特信貸本季實現稅前利潤 2.8 億美元，全年實現稅前利潤 13 億美元。正如預期，全年業績年減。信用損失表現持續正常化，但仍低於我們的歷史平均值。

Now before I turn to guidance, I wanted to touch briefly on capital allocation. One of the benefits of our segmentation, in addition to increased transparency and accountability, is that we are now allocating capital based on the growth opportunities in different risk and return profiles of our segments. This allows us to assign specific risk-adjusted hurdle rates for each of our businesses, driving greater accountability to returns on the capital we invest.

現在，在轉向指導之前，我想先簡單談談資本配置。除了提高透明度和問責制之外，我們細分的好處之一是，我們現在根據細分市場不同風險和回報情況的成長機會來分配資本。這使我們能夠為每項業務分配特定的風險調整門檻利率，從而推動我們對投資資本回報承擔更大的責任。

So here's how we're thinking about 2024 guidance. For the full year, we expect to earn between $10 billion to $12 billion in adjusted EBIT. The high end of the range would be a record for Ford. Adjusted free cash flow of $6 billion to $7 billion and capital expenditures of $8 billion to $9.5 billion, flat to moderately up year-over-year. So let me double click on capital expenditures.

以下是我們對 2024 年指導的看法。我們預計全年調整後息稅前利潤將在 100 億至 120 億美元之間。該系列的高端將創下福特的紀錄。調整後自由現金流為 60 億至 70 億美元，資本支出為 80 億至 95 億美元，較去年同期持平至小幅成長。讓我雙擊資本支出。

We expect EVs to be about 40% of the total, and this reflects products already in flight, including investments in EV powertrain supporting our next generation of products in our LFP battery plant here in Michigan. As we continue to adjust to market dynamics, we are scrutinizing every dollar and will continue to drive efficiencies, targeting to land at the lower end of our CapEx range.

我們預計電動車將佔總數的 40% 左右，這反映了已經投入使用的產品，包括對電動車動力系統的投資，以支持我們位於密西根州磷酸鐵鋰電池工廠的下一代產品。隨著我們繼續根據市場動態進行調整，我們正在仔細審查每一美元，並將繼續提高效率，目標是達到資本支出範圍的下限。

For example, in 2023, we already started to take action. We delayed our second JV battery plant in Kentucky. We reduced the size of our new LFP plant in Michigan, and we did not proceed with our JV battery plant in Turkey. And now we are further adjusting installed capacity to match demand, reassessing vertical integration in new battery chemistries, adjusting Gen 2 products and potentially their launch timing to ensure they meet our criteria for profitability, given the new market reality.

例如2023年我們就已經開始行動了。我們推遲了在肯塔基州的第二家合資電池工廠的建設。我們縮小了密西根州新磷酸鐵鋰工廠的規模，並且沒有繼續建造土耳其的合資電池工廠。現在，我們正在進一步調整裝置容量以滿足需求，重新評估新電池化學的垂直整合，調整第二代產品及其潛在的發佈時間，以確保它們符合我們的獲利標準，考慮到新的市場現實。

Our 2024 outlook also assumes a flat to slightly higher SAAR in both the U.S. and Europe. And our planning assumption for the U.S. is 16 million to 16.5 million units, nonrecurrence of the UAW strike, full year of our all-new Super Duty driving both positive pricing and mix in Ford Pro, industry supply and demand normalizing. Now from a planning perspective, we are assuming lower industry pricing of roughly 2%, driven by higher incentive spending as we move through the year. We expect this to be partially offset by top line growth from the launch of our new products.

我們對 2024 年的展望也假設美國和歐洲的 SAAR 持平或略有上升。我們對美國的計劃假設是 1600 萬至 1650 萬輛，UAW 罷工不再發生，我們全新的 Super Duty 全年推出將推動 Ford Pro 的積極定價和產品組合，行業供需正常化。現在從規劃的角度來看，我們假設行業定價較低約 2%，這是由於今年激勵支出增加所致。我們預計這將被新產品推出帶來的收入成長部分抵消。

In addition, we're assuming a $2 billion benefit from cost reduction initiatives that offset higher labor and product refresh costs. Within the segments, we expect Ford Pro's strength will continue unabated. With continued strong demand for our leading products, we are targeting EBIT between $8 billion to $9 billion, driven by continued growth and favorable mix, partially offset by moderated pricing. For Model e, we expect losses to widen to a range of $5 billion to $5.5 billion, driven by continued pricing pressure and investments in our next-generation vehicles. We expect our first-generation vehicles to improve their profits throughout the year.

此外，我們假設成本削減計劃將帶來 20 億美元的收益，抵消更高的勞動力和產品更新成本。在細分市場中，我們預期福特 Pro 的實力將持續不減。由於對我們主導產品的持續強勁需求，在持續成長和有利的組合的推動下，我們的息稅前利潤目標為 80 億至 90 億美元，但部分被適度的定價所抵消。對於 Model e，由於持續的定價壓力和對下一代汽車的投資，我們預計虧損將擴大至 50 億至 55 億美元。我們預計第一代汽車全年利潤將有所提高。

Ford Blue, EBIT to be about equal to last year at $7 billion to $7.5 billion, reflecting a balanced market equation, including the impact of our all-new F-150. We also expect costs to be flat as we offset higher labor and product cost with efficiencies. And we expect Ford Credit's EBT to be up slightly year-over-year to about $1.5 billion.

Ford Blue 的息稅前利潤將與去年持平，為 70 億至 75 億美元，反映了平衡的市場方程式，包括我們全新 F-150 的影響。我們也預計成本將持平，因為我們用效率抵消了更高的勞動力和產品成本。我們預計福特信貸的 EBT 將年比小幅成長至約 15 億美元。

Now taking a step back, our performance last year reflects the positive momentum of our Ford+ plan. Capital discipline is driving the right global footprint, portfolio of products and consistent cash generation. We continue to see growth opportunities and remain focused on delivering improvements in both quality and cost.

現在退一步來說，我們去年的表現反映了我們福特+計劃的積極勢頭。資本紀律正在推動正確的全球足跡、產品組合和持續的現金產生。我們繼續看到成長機會，並繼續專注於提高品質和成本。

Now that wraps our prepared remarks. We'll use the balance of the time to address what's on your mind. Thank you. Operator, please open up the line for questions.

現在我們準備好的發言結束了。我們將利用剩餘的時間來解決您的想法。謝謝。接線員，請開通提問線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指令）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Adam Jonas。

Jim, I want to talk to you about Ford versus Ferrari, which is by the way, a great movie, by the way, and I think the good guys won. I remember a time when Fiat owned Ferrari, and I had a valuation of about $4 billion on it. Now Ferrari is worth $80 billion today, and the business was totally ignored by investors when it was part of Fiat. Now Ford has a Ferrari, it's called Ford Pro. And I think we agree, people are ignoring the cash cow but I disagree with you, Jim. You said it's because of opaque kind of transparency or opaque kind of metrics. I don't agree. I think it's because almost all the profits are funding this EV science project. Am I being unfair, Jim, with that kind of assessment or what can your team do about this? I have a follow-up.

吉姆，我想和你談談福特與法拉利，順便說一句，這是一部很棒的電影，我認為好人贏了。我記得有一次菲亞特擁有法拉利，我對它的估值約為 40 億美元。如今，法拉利的市值已達 800 億美元，而該業務在被菲亞特收購時完全被投資者忽視。現在福特有一輛法拉利，它的名字叫Ford Pro。我認為我們同意，人們忽視了搖錢樹，但我不同意你的觀點，吉姆。你說這是因為不透明的透明度或不透明的指標。我不同意。我認為這是因為幾乎所有利潤都用於資助這個電動車科學計畫。吉姆，我的這種評估是否不公平？或者你的團隊對此能做些什麼？我有一個後續行動。

(inaudible) enthusiasm towards it. But relative to EVs, there's a lot we can do, and there's a lot we're doing. I think you're going to see a lot of seismic changes in the industry because of this pricing power reality that we've all faced. More OEM relationships, different shifting to a buy versus a build or vertical integration, shifting in capital and generally more focus on smaller vehicles.

（聽不清楚）對此的熱情。但相對於電動車，我們可以做很多事情，而且我們正在做很多事情。我認為，由於我們都面臨著定價權的現實，您將看到該行業發生許多翻天覆地的變化。更多的原始設備製造商關係、從購買到建造或垂直整合的不同轉變、資本轉移以及通常更關注小型車輛。

The EV customers are very robust. They really like the vehicles. They do not repurchase ICE or hybrid vehicles. They're very loyal and they love the vehicles, so it's on us to get the cost right. That is the issue with the transition. The good news is Ford has a high-volume hybrid business, and the timing of our second cycle product gives us a chance to make a lot of adjustments in capital, bringing it down, including, and it allows us to execute them with a cost approach that's very different than our first generation.

電動車客戶非常強勁。他們真的很喜歡這些車輛。他們不會重新購買內燃機或混合動力汽車。他們非常忠誠並且喜歡這些車輛，因此我們有責任確定正確的成本。這就是過渡的問題。好消息是福特擁有大批量的混合動力業務，我們第二個週期產品的時機使我們有機會對資本進行大量調整，包括降低成本，並且它使我們能夠以一定的成本執行這些調整與我們第一代的方法非常不同。

And I think all of our commitments to make money in the first 12 months of all of our launches, to have that kind of profitability in Model e, to return its cost of capital, I wouldn't be saying it if I didn't believe it. And it's also got a lot of other benefits, which I want the team to explain and that are really important to understand.

我認為，我們所有的承諾都是在所有產品發布後的前 12 個月內賺錢，讓 Model e 具有這種盈利能力，回報其資本成本，如果我不這樣做的話，我就不會這麼說。相信它。它還有很多其他好處，我希望團隊能夠解釋這些好處，理解這些好處非常重要。

Marin, maybe you want to go over those, or John?

馬林，也許你想回顧這些，或者約翰？

Sure. Thanks, Jim. If we just think about what the Gen 1 vehicles can do for us, we're building the EV business and, at the same time, we need the compliance value. We mentioned before the value of the credits that generated allow us to sell these high-margin ICE vehicles. Each EV sold allows us to sell multiple high-margin vehicles. A Lightning can offset roughly...

當然。謝謝，吉姆。如果我們只考慮第一代汽車可以為我們做什麼，我們正在建立電動車業務，同時我們需要合規價值。我們之前提到所產生的積分的價值使我們能夠出售這些高利潤的內燃機車輛。每賣出一輛電動車，我們就可以銷售多輛高利潤汽車。閃電大約可以抵消...

Including Pro.

包括專業版。

Including Pro. We're also building new customer-facing capabilities. We are satisfying demand that is out there where there's high levels of adoption. We've got new dealer standards, changing experience for the customer for shop and buy ownership and service so that we're learning what's required to serve these customers, both us and our dealers. We're developing a charging network through our dealers and together with Tesla.

包括專業版。我們也正在建立新的面向客戶的功能。我們正在滿足高採用率的需求。我們制定了新的經銷商標準，改變了客戶的商店體驗、購買所有權和服務，以便我們了解為這些客戶（我們和我們的經銷商）提供服務所需的條件。我們正在透過我們的經銷商並與特斯拉一起開發充電網路。

Now the adoption varies tremendously by geography. As Jim mentioned, across the West Coast, we're seeing 30% of the market in F-150 being in EVs. That volume is giving us a feedback loop for engineering. We're developing these electric powertrains. We've got better handle on thermal propagation, and the software and services that these customers demand much more intensely than a typical ICE customer, we're learning how to deliver those much better, much more efficiently and with higher quality.

現在，不同地區的採用情況差異很大。正如 Jim 所提到的，在整個西海岸，我們看到 30% 的 F-150 市場是電動車。這卷為我們提供了工程回饋循環。我們正在開發這些電動動力系統。我們對熱傳播以及這些客戶比典型 ICE 客戶更強烈需求的軟體和服務有了更好的處理，我們正在學習如何更好、更有效率、更高品質地提供這些服務。

I would be remiss if we ignore the lifetime value of both the customer and the vehicle. We've got a 60% conquest rate on Gen 1 and the integrated services like BlueCruise that we can sell in these vehicles goes through the whole life of the vehicle.

如果我們忽視客戶和車輛的終身價值，那就是我的失職。我們在第一代上的征服率達到了 60%，並且我們可以在這些車輛中銷售的 BlueCruise 等整合服務貫穿車輛的整個生命週期。

Anything else, John?

還有別的事嗎，約翰？

Yes. I mean, the only thing I would say is, Adam, one of the important things, just on top of that, is that the segmentation is really important here. And we know that the EV business needs to stand on its own, right? We're very clear about that. And it needs to generate a profit and a return on the capital we're investing. Now we're not there yet, but that's what we're working towards.

是的。我的意思是，我唯一要說的是，亞當，最重要的事情之一是，細分在這裡非常重要。我們知道電動車業務需要獨立，對嗎？我們對此非常清楚。它需要產生利潤和我們投資的資本回報。現在我們還沒有達到這個目標，但這就是我們正在努力的方向。

The compliance benefit that we get, that's important. We can sell up to a dozen ICE F-150s or other ICE profitable vehicles for every Lightning we sell. But that -- we don't do anything with wooden nickels. We don't do any credit into EV, into Model e or anything like that because eventually, this business has to stand on its own sooner rather than later. And that's a really important point. It's clean.

我們獲得的合規利益非常重要。每銷售一輛 Lightning，我們就可以銷售多達十幾輛 ICE F-150 或其他 ICE 獲利車輛。但我們不會用木製鎳幣做任何事。我們不會對電動車、Model e 或類似產品做出任何貢獻，因為最終，這項業務必須盡快獨立。這是非常重要的一點。很乾淨。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

By the way, Pro includes electric. And although electric is going slower for Pro customers, it's actually they do the math quicker than retail customers. And so actually, our January EV sales in Pro were higher than December, which would ever make sense. But we're seeing more and more Pro customers go electric if their duty cycle makes sense. So even for Pro, it's important for our success.

順便說一下，Pro 包括電動。儘管專業客戶的電動化速度較慢，但實際上他們的計算速度比零售客戶更快。事實上，我們 1 月份的 Pro 電動車銷量高於 12 月份，這是有道理的。但我們看到越來越多的專業客戶選擇電動車，如果他們的工作週期合理的話。因此，即使對於 Pro 來說，這對我們的成功也很重要。

I appreciate that, Jim. I just have just a brief follow-up on China. You guys come across as very sophisticated in terms of having sophisticated insight into China. You got Ambassador Huntsman on the Board, been there for years. You have a JV partner with Changan that's really kicking a** lately with EVs. So how can Ford work -- potentially work with Chinese partners to help Ford achieve its EV objectives in a more capital-efficient way?

我很感激，吉姆。我只是簡單介紹一下中國的情況。你們給人的印像是對中國有著深刻的洞察力。洪博培大使在董事會任職多年。長安汽車是合資夥伴，最近在電動車方面表現出色。那麼，福特如何與中國合作夥伴合作，幫助福特以更具資本效率的方式實現電動車目標？

Thank you. Well, person right next to me, John was the head of Ford at China and knows the Changan leadership really well. John and I went to a [Gamba] trip last spring and it was really eye-opening for us. I mean, as 2 leaders who look to each other said, holy cow. I think, first of all, China as an export for our very profitable overseas markets is really important now. And actually, we shouldn't overlook the importance of JMC now. We have really profitable export business in China: ICE and EV.

謝謝。嗯，我旁邊的人約翰是福特中國區的負責人，他非常了解長安的領導階層。去年春天，約翰和我去了一次 [Gamba] 旅行，這真的讓我們大開眼界。我的意思是，正如兩位領導人互相看著對方所說的那樣，天哪。我認為，首先，中國作為我們利潤豐厚的海外市場的出口產品現在非常重要。事實上，我們現在不應該忽視江鈴汽車的重要性。我們在中國有真正有利可圖的出口業務：內燃機和電動車。

We're going to actually a very different strategy, I think our competitors in China with a very low capital approach to EVs. So we don't -- we see the kind of bloodbath reality now in China on EVs, and we're watching that really carefully. We don't think it's a good time to jump in with both feet in China with EVs, but we're allowing our partners' platforms to lead our electrification. And in doing that, we are learning a lot about their capability and the local IP there in China.

我們實際上將採取一種非常不同的策略，我認為我們在中國的競爭對手對電動車的資本非常低。所以我們不會——我們現在在中國看到了電動車上的血腥現實，我們正在非常仔細地觀察這一點。我們認為現在不是雙腳涉足中國電動車的好時機，但我們允許合作夥伴的平台引領我們的電氣化。在此過程中，我們深入了解了他們的能力和中國本土的智慧財產權。

And it's pretty breathtaking to see what we're learning. I think our approach of very low capital, profitable business is appropriate at this moment in time for this kind of EV explosion but also bloodbath and profitability. And I think we're also building a global capability team for digital experience, battery and sensing tech and product concepting in China that we'll use globally. I think even though that's not a profit or loss thing, we see that as a real capability globally. So our strategy is quite different but I think it works for our company.

看到我們正在學習的東西真是令人驚嘆。我認為我們的資本極低、獲利業務的方法在此時此刻適合這種電動車的爆炸式增長，但也適合大屠殺和獲利能力。我認為我們還在中國建立一個數位體驗、電池和感測技術以及產品概念的全球能力團隊，我們將在全球範圍內使用。我認為，儘管這不是什麼盈利或虧損的問題，但我們認為這是全球範圍內的真正能力。所以我們的策略非常不同，但我認為這對我們公司來說是有效的。

The next question is from John Murphy with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰‧墨菲。

Just a first question here, Jim, on EVs. Obviously, it's a hot topic here. As we look at sort of the slowdown here, we're hearing from dealers, particularly I spent some time in NADA last week, that they're seeing EVs traded in and folks buying ICE and EV. So they're actually swapping out EVs and buying ICE and hybrids. And then you're seeing Hertz dumping 20,000 EVs and canceling or postponing orders. So both on the retail side and the commercial side, you're getting these stories. It's following up with data that folks are really not happy with the product sort of near term.

吉姆，這是關於電動車的第一個問題。顯然，這是這裡的熱門話題。當我們看到這裡的放緩時，我們從經銷商那裡聽到，特別是我上週在 NADA 待過一段時間，他們看到電動車被交易，人們正在購買 ICE 和電動車。所以他們實際上正在更換電動車併購買內燃機和混合動力汽車。然後你會看到 Hertz 傾銷 20,000 輛電動車並取消或推遲訂單。因此，無論是在零售方面還是商業方面，您都會聽到這些故事。它追蹤的數據顯示人們對近期的產品確實不滿意。

What do you think is happening because the customers are not happy? I mean it sounds like on the Pro side, some folks might be with the product that they have right now. And if you think about sort of your planning assumptions maybe near term, I don't, just for argument's sake, say you have 100,000 less EVs. Do you think if you sell 100,000 less EVs at Ford that you have the ICE and hybrids to backfill for that so you actually don't lose sales and you actually might be a little bit more profitable in the short term? It's kind of a lot in that question, but just trying to understand what you're seeing in the market, why things are failing here both on the retail side and on the commercial side to some degree. And do you have the product to backfill if those volumes are lower?

您認為顧客不滿意會發生什麼情況？我的意思是，聽起來在專業方面，有些人可能會使用他們現在擁有的產品。如果你考慮一下近期的規劃假設，我不會為了論證而說你的電動車數量減少了 100,000 輛。您是否認為，如果您在福特少售出 100,000 輛電動車，您就有內燃機和混合動力車來補充，這樣您實際上就不會損失銷量，並且實際上可能在短期內獲得更多利潤？這個問題涉及很多內容，但只是想了解您在市場上看到的情況，以及為什麼零售方面和商業方面都在某種程度上失敗了。如果這些數量較低，您是否有產品可以回填？

You can imagine -- John, you can -- thank you for your question. You can imagine with our choice portfolio being big on scaled hybrids, ICE, of course, and EV, this is a very fundamental question for us because we have to plan our capacity years out. Here's what we found. Customers are doing the quick showroom math on hybrids. They can quickly evaluate the breakeven between ICE and a hybrid on the showroom floor. For an F-150, they can -- they know how much a Honda generator cost versus Pro Power Onboard, and they don't have to change the behavior.

你可以想像——約翰，你可以——謝謝你的問題。你可以想像，我們的選擇產品組合主要是規模化混合動力車、內燃機，當然還有電動車，這對我們來說是一個非常基本的問題，因為我們必須規劃未來幾年的產能。這是我們發現的。客戶正在展場中對混合動力車進行快速計算。他們可以在展場快速評估 ICE 和混合動力車之間的收支平衡。對於 F-150，他們可以知道本田發電機與 Pro Power Onboard 的成本是多少，而且他們不必改變行為。

A lot of the operating cost efficiencies in EV for a mainstream customer require change like installing a charger at home, or they're uncertain. How much will I save on repair cost? How much will I save on electrons versus gasoline? It's harder to compare. And so we're just seeing the cost of ownership, which is interesting because the success of EVs and Pro is a customer that does that math more brutally and they use the vehicle at a higher utilization. So they're looking at cost of ownership in a much clearer lens. And therefore, some of them are doing the math and going to EV.

對於主流客戶來說，電動車的許多營運成本效率都需要改變，例如在家中安裝充電器，否則他們就不確定。我可以節省多少維修費用？與汽油相比，我可以節省多少電子費用？比較難。因此，我們只是看到了擁有成本，這很有趣，因為電動車和專業車的成功是客戶更殘酷地進行計算，並且他們以更高的利用率使用車輛。因此，他們正在以更清晰的視角來考慮擁有成本。因此，他們中的一些人正在計算並轉向電動車。

I think that math has always been there for HEV, but now more customers are interested in doing that. And we believe that customers are smart and some people would do these cycles for EVs. So going to do that math over time and it's worth investing because it's a really good business. But it's on us to get the cost right. So I just think we're seeing the math for an EV customer, mainstream EV customer is a little bit more opaque than what we see on hybrids. We're hearing -- Marin, do you want to say anything quickly about dealers?

我認為混合動力汽車一直都需要數學，但現在更多的客戶對此感興趣。我們相信客戶很聰明，有些人會為電動車進行這些循環。因此，隨著時間的推移進行數學計算，這是值得投資的，因為這是一項非常好的業務。但我們有責任決定正確的成本。所以我認為我們看到的是電動車客戶的數學，主流電動車客戶比我們在混合動力車上看到的更不透明。我們聽到—馬林，你想快速談談關於經銷商的事情嗎？

Yes. I think what we're seeing with our dealers is they've been making margins comparable to their ICE vehicles in the last year. And in '21 and '22, we're actually doing better than on their ICE vehicles when pricing was really strong. So we feel really good about making sure our dealers are making money on this and are making investments for the long term. But I think that's something that we monitor closely. I think just building on Jim's point quickly, I would just say the big difference for consumers is they make that one choice every few years, whereas the Pro customer is changing their fleet, consistently buying lots of vehicles, and they test and they learn what the TCO difference is that total cost of operation.

是的。我認為我們在經銷商處看到的情況是，他們去年的利潤率與他們的內燃機汽車相當。在 21 和 22 年，當定價非常強勁時，我們實際上比他們的 ICE 車輛做得更好。因此，我們非常高興確保我們的經銷商能夠從中賺錢並進行長期投資。但我認為這是我們密切關注的事情。我認為，快速建立吉姆的觀點，我只想說，對於消費者來說，最大的區別是他們每隔幾年就會做出一次選擇，而專業客戶正在改變他們的車隊，持續購買大量車輛，他們進行測試並了解什麼TCO 差異在於總營運成本。

And as far as the manufacturing capacity, we planned that 40% growth in HEVs years ago, so that is our capacity. We may have some pricing room above that. And we've seen actually HEV pricing become more robust as we hit these capacity limits. But 40% growth is a big increase for us. We think we got it about right. That means like an F-150, America's best-selling vehicle. We think 25% of the sales for America's best-selling vehicles can be hybrid. And I think we're going to get close to some of the all-hybrid nameplates out there that people think of when they think of hybrids with F-150. So we have a lot of flexibility. I think we're in good shape.

就製造能力而言，我們幾年前計劃將混合動力汽車成長 40%，這就是我們的能力。我們可能還有一些定價空間。事實上，我們已經看到，當我們達到這些容量限制時，混合動力車的定價變得更加強勁。但40%的成長對我們來說是一個很大的成長。我們認為我們做對了。這意味著像 F-150 一樣，美國最暢銷的車輛。我們認為美國最暢銷汽車銷量的 25% 是混合動力車。我認為我們將接近人們在想到 F-150 混合動力車時想到的一些全混合動力車銘牌。所以我們有很大的靈活性。我認為我們的狀態很好。

Jim, just one follow-up. I mean you reported to a rumor to be doing a 2-week tour to your dealers, around your different dealers. I'm just curious, I mean, some of them are happy, some of them are annoyed at the EV stuff. What is the general message going to be as you're going around to the all-important channel and trying to get the troops in line and everything moving in the right direction in the distribution channel?

吉姆，只是一個後續行動。我的意思是，有傳言稱您將前往您的經銷商，並圍繞不同的經銷商進行為期兩週的巡迴演出。我只是很好奇，我的意思是，他們中的一些人對電動車的東西感到高興，而另一些人則感到惱火。當你繞過最重要的管道並試圖讓部隊排隊並且分銷渠道中的一切都朝著正確的方向前進時，整體訊息是什麼？

A couple of key messages. First of all, I mentioned Ford Pro and what a profit juggernaut that is. We continue to need our dealers to invest in the brick-and-mortar in those remote service van and accelerate that because that is the upside. We want to get to -- if we want to get to 20% of the profit for Pro being attached services, it's going to have to come on the back of capacity in our dealers and vans. So invest in Pro.

一些關鍵資訊。首先，我提到了福特 Pro 以及它是多麼巨大的利潤巨頭。我們仍然需要我們的經銷商投資這些遠端服務車的實體並加速這一進程，因為這是好處。我們希望—如果我們想從 Pro 附加服務中獲得 20% 的利潤，就必須依靠我們的經銷商和貨車的產能。所以投資Pro。

The second thing is we have manufacturing flexibility between ICE and EV and hybrid. So we want to make sure that they understand that we're in probably better shape than any other brand in this transition.

第二件事是我們在內燃機、電動車和混合動力之間擁有製造彈性。因此，我們希望確保他們明白，在這轉型過程中，我們的狀況可能比其他品牌都要好。

The third message is we want them to understand our progress on quality, and we are going to press to be among the leaders in retailing. They should keep for our customer, remote pick up and service, doing more repairs for our retail customers remote, and that takes investment in their side. We really want to step on the gas on customer experience, both ownership and purchase. And I think that has to come from the top. Jim Farley has to say to all these dealers who are private investors, we need your partnership right now. That's why I'm going on the tour.

第三個訊息是我們希望他們了解我們在品質方面的進步，我們將努力成為零售業的領導者之一。他們應該為我們的客戶保留遠端取貨和服務，為我們的零售客戶進行更多遠端維修，這需要他們方面的投資。我們確實希望加強客戶體驗，包括所有權和購買體驗。我認為這必須來自高層。吉姆法利必須對所有這些私人投資者經銷商說，我們現在需要您的合作關係。這就是我要去巡迴演出的原因。

The next question is from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Jim, you said that you're discovering that the adoption curve for EVs is a bit shallower, but we're still seeing $5 billion to $5.5 billion of losses in Model e, which implies that structural costs are probably higher in 2024 than 2023. So it sounds like you're committed because you see the ultimate benefit and maybe also a little bit because there isn't much choice. So ultimately, the question is, can you control and commit to when that business reaches breakeven, either through stronger demand or lower spending? Because from here, $5 billion improvement is pretty meaningful. Or do you have to do that because of the trajectory of ZEV and EPA and all the other things possibly exceeding where consumers are?

Jim，你說你發現電動車的採用曲線有點淺，但我們仍然看到 Model e 損失 50 億至 55 億美元，這意味著 2024 年的結構成本可能會高於 2023 年。所以聽起來你很投入，因為你看到了最終的好處，也許也有一點，因為沒有太多選擇。因此，歸根結底，問題是，您能否控制並承諾該業務何時透過強勁的需求或較低的支出來實現盈虧平衡？因為從這裡開始，50億美元的改進是相當有意義的。或者因為 ZEV 和 EPA 的發展軌跡以及所有其他可能超出消費者的範圍的因素，您是否必須這樣做？

Well, we're not going to go to market with the vehicle unless we completely convinced ourselves that it's going to be profitable. And that takes some adjustments on timing actually. And we see opportunity in the short term to make some adjustments. But yes, I know it's a huge turnaround and it's a big number. John, maybe you want to go into the actual losses in Model e just to pick them apart a little bit. And then I think you'll see a little bit more about the opportunity we have at Gen 2.

好吧，除非我們完全確信它會獲利，否則我們不會將這款車推向市場。這實際上需要對時間進行一些調整。我們看到短期內有機會進行一些調整。但是，是的，我知道這是一個巨大的轉變，而且是一個很大的數字。約翰，也許你想了解 Model e 的實際損失，只是為了將它們分開一點。然後我認為您會更多地了解我們在 Gen 2 中擁有的機會。

Yes. So the biggest issue we have in our Gen 1 vehicles, of course, is that the revenue collapsed and they're not optimized from a cost standpoint. We put them through very quickly to get to market and you're seeing that flow through. But I think, Rod, part of what you were getting at is that we have no choice. And we will continue to work on improving the cost structure of the Gen 1 vehicles. And as Jim said, our Gen 2 vehicles we won't launch unless we can get to a profit and a return on that capital that we're investing there at the pricing environment that we now understand is a reality.

是的。因此，我們第一代車輛面臨的最大問題當然是收入大幅下降，而且從成本角度來看它們沒有得到最佳化。我們很快就把它們推向市場，你會看到整個過程。但我認為，羅德，你的部分意思是我們別無選擇。我們將繼續致力於改善第一代車輛的成本結構。正如吉姆所說，我們不會推出第二代汽車，除非我們能夠在我們現在了解的現實定價環境下投資的資本獲得利潤和回報。

So yes, it is very much the mother of all optimization modeling and work around the balance between how many EVs we sell because we talked about the compliance benefit of that. For every Lightning, we can sell 12 ICE vehicles. We can sell a number of ICE vehicles with every Mach-E we sell, and so there's that balance. And then there's the balance of what we need to sell from the ICE standpoint and how we can improve with HEVs there, and that's a benefit, too. But there's also, and you'll see that in our K tomorrow, we are buying credits as they're available. So we have to optimize across all 3 of those frontiers and that's what we're working on right now.

所以，是的，它在很大程度上是所有優化模型之母，並圍繞我們銷售的電動車數量之間的平衡進行工作，因為我們討論了它的合規性好處。對於每輛 Lightning，我們可以銷售 12 輛 ICE 車輛。我們每銷售一輛 Mach-E 就可以銷售一定數量的 ICE 車輛，所以就存在這種平衡。然後，從 ICE 的角度來看，我們需要銷售什麼，以及我們如何改進混合動力汽車，這也是一個好處。但還有，明天你會在我們的 K 中看到，我們正在購買可用的積分。因此，我們必須在所有這三個領域進行最佳化，這就是我們現在正在努力的方向。

But we know that we have to have this electric vehicle business stand on its own and be profitable because we know that there are competitors out there. We talked about that the Chinese as well as Tesla that are profitable, and we have to cross that fulcrum and get there. And that's what our goal is. So it needs to be a benefit of profitable business, return on the capital plus the compliance benefit that we get from those.

但我們知道，我們必須讓電動車業務獨立且獲利，因為我們知道有競爭對手。我們談到中國和特斯拉都是獲利的，我們必須跨越這個支點並到達那裡。這就是我們的目標。因此，它需要是獲利業務的收益、資本回報加上我們從中獲得的合規收益。

And Rod, we have a lot of stakeholders at Ford so we're not going to go in a lot of details, but we have optionality even this year in capital spending. I mean a lot of that guide is EVs. John, I don't know if you want to be specific, but...

羅德，福特有很多利益相關者，所以我們不會透露太多細節，但即使今年我們在資本支出方面也有選擇權。我的意思是很多指南都是電動車。約翰，我不知道你是否想具體說明，但是...

It's about 40% last year and 40% of our CapEx this year and is EV.

去年和今年我們資本支出的 40% 左右都是電動車。

And we're driving as a team to be on the low end of that range.

我們作為一個團隊正在努力達到這個範圍的低端。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Because we are working hard on our EV spend. And I just want to make sure we don't want to leave this call with the fact that this is totally baked. We are working really hard to be on the low end of that range because we think it's appropriate to run the business.

因為我們正在努力增加電動車支出。我只是想確保我們不想在電話會議結束時就知道這件事已經完全完成了。我們正在努力保持在該範圍的低端，因為我們認為經營業務是合適的。

Can you commit to breakeven at a certain point that you said before that the Gen 2 vehicles come out in 2026? Is that kind of the time line for closing that $5 billion? And then just as a follow-up, I think you're saying that you've got line of sight on warranty coming down. Will we see the variable cost disadvantage that you've highlighted in warranty and material starting to come down this year?

您之前說過，第 2 代汽車將於 2026 年問世，您能否承諾在某個時間點達到收支平衡？這就是完成這 50 億美元的時間表嗎？然後，作為後續行動，我認為您是在說您已經看到了保固期的下降。我們會看到您在保固和材料方面強調的可變成本劣勢今年開始下降嗎？

We have the leader of our EV business here, Marin, so I think that question goes to you on timing and warranty.

我們這裡有我們電動車業務的領導者馬林，所以我認為這個問題是關於時間和保固的。

Yes, I don't think we're prepared right now to commit to a specific timing on when we're going to be positive EBIT. We are going to expect to see improving gross margin quarter-over-quarter over the course of the year. John mentioned some of the levers we're starting to pull, and we will continue to adjust to the market realities. We've changed our production. We have increased C&I as need be to address our inventory issues. And we're going to keep working on our cost.

是的，我認為我們現在還沒有準備好承諾何時實現正息稅前利潤的具體時間。我們預計全年毛利率將較上季改善。約翰提到了我們開始採取的一些措施，我們將繼續根據市場現實進行調整。我們改變了生產方式。我們根據需要增加了 C&I 來解決庫存問題。我們將繼續努力控製成本。

We've taken 4,000 to 5,000 out of the BOM on Mustang Mach-E since it was launched and 2,000 to 3,000 out of Lightning, and the team continues to work. But the market is turned and it's going to be a challenge. And I don't know that we can commit because we don't know exactly what's going to happen in the market.

自 Mustang Mach-E 推出以來，我們已從其 BOM 中刪除了 4,000 至 5,000 個，並從 Lightning 中刪除了 2,000 至 3,000 個，並且團隊仍在繼續工作。但市場已經發生轉變，這將是一個挑戰。我不知道我們是否可以做出承諾，因為我們不知道市場會發生什麼。

In terms of warranty costs, our Generation 1 vehicles, as we mentioned earlier, have been incredibly valuable for us to learn about a set of the issues around EVs, batteries and thermal obligation. And we will continue to work on that to lower our warranty costs dramatically for Generation 2, but we've got to deliver that in partnership with Kumar and the industrial platform.

就保固成本而言，正如我們之前提到的，我們的第一代車輛對於我們了解有關電動車、電池和熱義務的一系列問題非常有價值。我們將繼續努力，大幅降低第二代的保固成本，但我們必須與 Kumar 和工業平台合作實現這一目標。

So Rod, I think the last part of your question was around, are we going to start to see costs turn? I would say that from a warranty standpoint, costs are probably going to be about flat this year. We're starting to see green shoots in the quality improvements. But as you know, the way that works, there's a lag. And Kumar can touch upon this a little bit more, but this year, we expect to see $2 billion of efficiencies flow through.

羅德，我認為你問題的最後一部分是，我們是否會開始看到成本的轉變？我想說，從保固的角度來看，今年的成本可能會持平。我們開始看到品質改進的萌芽。但如您所知，其工作方式存在滯後。 Kumar 可以多談一點，但今年，我們預計將實現 20 億美元的效率提升。

And those efficiencies are in the material cost in the industrial system, pretty much offsetting the impact of UAW. But also remember, 60% of our global portfolio this year will be refreshed. And coming with that will be incremental costs that we have for new features, compliance, et cetera. And so what we should see this year is the efficiencies of $2 billion offsetting the UAW labor contract plus the refresh costs of our -- 60% of our products being refreshed this year.

這些效率體現在工業系統的材料成本中，幾乎抵銷了 UAW 的影響。但也要記住，今年我們全球投資組合的 60% 將會更新。隨之而來的是我們在新功能、合規性等方面的增加成本。因此，今年我們應該看到 20 億美元的效率抵消了 UAW 勞動合約加上我們 60% 的產品的更新成本。

The next question is from Dan Levy with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

I want to go back to Pro and your -- the guide that you have for this year is already in line with the midteen margin guide you provided at your CMD last spring. So really the question is, how sustainable is this earnings stream? And specifically, I think you've had something like $7 billion of price tailwind. Last year, I think $11 billion if you aggregate over a 2-year stretch. I know this is partially driven by new product, but what is the sustainability of these very robust price tailwinds you experienced?

我想回到 Pro 和您的 — 今年的指南已經與您去年春天在 CMD 提供的中間保證金指南一致。所以真正的問題是，這種收入流的可持續性如何？具體來說，我認為您已經獲得了大約 70 億美元的價格順風。去年，如果兩年內加起來的話，我認為是 110 億美元。我知道這部分是由新產品推動的，但您所經歷的這些非常強勁的價格順風的可持續性是什麼？

Well, first of all, I tried to explain the fundamental factors for our vehicle profitability in Pro that's driving that demand will be here for a while. It's basic infrastructure, government state, 5G, onshoring, manufacturing, manufacturing sector. We believe that, that's very durable. And by the way in Europe, we've been the top-selling brand there for 9 years and we have very old products. So we haven't even seen the effect of Transit Custom and Ranger that's all coming our way.

好吧，首先，我試著解釋一下 Pro 版車輛獲利能力的基本因素，這些因素推動了這種需求將持續一段時間。這是基礎建設、政府、5G、本土、製造業、製造業。我們相信，這是非常耐用的。順便說一下，在歐洲，我們已經連續 9 年成為歐洲最暢銷的品牌，而且我們的產品非常老舊。所以我們甚至還沒看到 Transit Custom 和 Ranger 的效果。

We feel that this is a pretty robust profitability because we've never had the 20% attach rates. We've never had 0.5 million units of software with 50% margins. We've never really focused on Pro aftersales like we are now. We're just getting started with this 20% of the profitability coming from attached services. And I think that totally changes the risk portfolio of our commercial business. And we -- this is a real opportunity for our company that we never had.

我們認為這是一個相當強勁的獲利能力，因為我們從未有過 20% 的附加費率。我們從來沒有擁有過 50 萬套軟體且利潤率為 50%。我們從來沒有像現在這樣真正關注 Pro 售後。我們剛開始利用這 20% 的利潤來自附加服務。我認為這完全改變了我們商業業務的風險組合。而我們——這對我們公司來說是一個從未有過的真正機會。

I also believe that attach rates are the kind of things that we'll start to see on the retail side of our business. Blue's software is now 70% marked and it's high volume now. And we're just getting started with that optionality. So what it will be 5 years from now? I'm not sure the time frame of your question, hard to predict. But for the next couple of years, we're in a really good spot because the shovels are in the ground or about to get in the ground.

我還相信附加費率是我們將開始在零售業務方面看到的東西。 Blue 的軟體現在已完成 70% 的標記，而且銷量很高。我們才剛開始使用這種選擇。那麼5年後會怎麼樣呢？我不確定你問題的時間範圍，很難預測。但在接下來的幾年裡，我們處於一個非常好的位置，因為鏟子已經埋入地下或即將埋入地下。

The one other thing about Pro that we have to watch really carefully, which would be even more upside, is a return to a robust construction housing market, which has been really slow in the last couple of years. If that starts to fire up, we're going to even have more capacity issues on Pro.

關於 Pro 的另一件事，我們必須非常仔細地觀察，這將是一個更大的好處，那就是強勁的建築房屋市場的回歸，而過去幾年該市場的成長速度非常緩慢。如果這種情況開始發生，我們甚至會在 Pro 上遇到更多容量問題。

Great. And then as a follow-up, John, I want to go back to your comments that you just mentioned a second ago on the industrial costs. And specifically, I think at the CMD, talked about a $7 billion cost disadvantage versus your competitors in Blue. So how do we contextualize the cost improvements that you're getting now versus the $7 billion? I mean is it safe to say that now this journey on sort of narrowing that gap is starting? Or is it still just still a lot more work to do? Just help us understand the path to narrowing that cost gap versus your competitors' inflow?

偉大的。然後，作為後續行動，約翰，我想回到您剛才提到的關於工業成本的評論。具體來說，我認為在 CMD 上，談到了與 Blue 競爭對手相比 70 億美元的成本劣勢。那麼，與 70 億美元相比，我們如何看待現在所獲得的成本改進？我的意思是，現在可以肯定地說，縮小差距的旅程已經開始了嗎？還是還有很多工作要做？只是幫助我們了解縮小與競爭對手的成本差距的途徑嗎？

Yes. What I would say is that it is now we're starting to gain the traction and that gap should start to narrow. And your -- that's part of the $2 billion. And so it's going to be across the industrial system, both in material and in labor. And I think Kumar can share some more details on how he's leading that and driving that.

是的。我想說的是，現在我們開始獲得牽引力，差距應該會開始縮小。而你的——那是 20 億美元的一部分。因此，這將遍及整個工業體系，無論是在材料方面還是在勞動力方面。我認為庫馬爾可以分享更多關於他如何領導和推動這一目標的細節。

Yes. Thanks, John. Well, this year, we're starting very differently than '24 than '23, for example. A couple of fundamental different things. Last year, we had a lot of inflationary pressures and claims from our suppliers. Those have eased very substantially and are going to help us deliver the $2 billion that John talked about.

是的。謝謝，約翰。嗯，例如，今年我們的開局與 24 年和 23 年非常不同。有一些根本不同的事情。去年，我們面臨很大的通膨壓力和供應商的索賠。這些已經大大緩解，並將幫助我們實現約翰談到的 20 億美元。

The second thing is the supply chain is much more stable. That allows us to run our entire system much more smoothly and helps us remove a lot of waste. It also reduces a lot of our freight cost because we've been doing a lot of premium freight last couple of years so that will help as well. And in terms of material, we're attacking it in like 3 different ways. One is where our designs are not efficient, so I want to give you a bit of color on what those are, a couple of examples.

第二件事是供應鏈更加穩定。這使我們能夠更順利地運行整個系統，並幫助我們消除大量浪費。它也降低了我們的許多貨運成本，因為過去幾年我們一直在進行大量的優質貨運，所以這也會有所幫助。在材料方面，我們用三種不同的方式來攻擊它。其中之一是我們的設計效率不高，所以我想透過幾個例子向您介紹這些問題。

In one of our vehicle lines, we were using certain aero shields for fuel economy and the fresh eyes Kaizen review internally and some benchmarking, the team came up with a different way of delivering the same aero and save $40 per vehicle. So that's equivalent to about $10 million per year. Another category is where we are providing certain features to our customers where they're not finding a lot of value. And connected vehicle data here is very important because it helps us see what we're providing, whether the customers are using it or not.

在我們的一個車輛系列中，我們使用某些空氣動力護罩來提高燃油經濟性，並且根據Kaizen 內部審查和一些基準測試的新視角，團隊想出了一種不同的方式來提供相同的空氣動力，並為每輛車節省40 美元。這相當於每年約 1000 萬美元。另一類是我們提供客戶某些功能，但他們沒有發現太多價值。連網車輛數據非常重要，因為它可以幫助我們了解我們所提供的產品，無論客戶是否使用它。

So one example is an auto park feature that lets the customer parallel park automatically. Very, very few people are using it. So we can remove that feature. It's about $60 per vehicle, another $10 million per year. We're doing very extensive benchmarking for our manufacturing, both internally because we have lots of good ideas within our system and externally at a station-by-station level.

一個例子是自動停車功能，可以讓客戶自動平行停車。非常非常少的人在使用它。所以我們可以刪除這個功能。每輛車大約需要 60 美元，每年還要再花費 1,000 萬美元。我們正在對我們的製造進行非常廣泛的基準測試，無論是在內部還是在外部，因為我們的系統內有很多好主意，而在外部則逐個站點進行。

So just recently, one of the teams completed analysis of about 50 stations and saved about $8 million. And I already mentioned the freight. So these are the kinds of very robust ideas we have in the hopper, along with less inflationary claims, along with a stable supply chain that's going to help us close that gap that John mentioned and save $2 billion this year.

就在最近，其中一個團隊完成了對大約 50 個站點的分析，節省了約 800 萬美元。我已經提到運費了。因此，這些是我們在料斗中擁有的非常穩健的想法，加上較少的通貨膨脹索賠，以及穩定的供應鏈，這將幫助我們縮小約翰提到的差距，並在今年節省 20 億美元。

The next question is from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐·羅斯納。

I was actually hoping to pick it up just where you left off on all that good color on the cost side. Are there any green shoots that you can sort of point us to, to give us increased conviction around some of these costs? Obviously, in 2023, cost was still a fairly major drag and that includes even in the fourth quarter. So like any in your reporting, any of these markets that we should be watching in terms of what will actually provide the tailwind, the $2 billion-plus in 2024?

我實際上希望在成本方面繼續你上次留下的所有好顏色。您是否可以向我們指出一些新的萌芽，讓我們對其中一些成本更有信心？顯然，到 2023 年，成本仍然是一個相當大的拖累，即使在第四季也是如此。那麼，就像您報告中的任何內容一樣，我們應該關注哪些市場，看看哪些市場將真正帶來推動力，即 2024 年價值超過 20 億美元的市場？

It's just fundamentally the things I talked about. We have a very robust hopper of ideas that we're very busy executing: stability in supply chain, removing a lot of waste, and freight cost. So we spent a lot of money, all of us did, in premium freight. We're starting to see in fourth -- third quarter and fourth quarter a much more stable supply chain that allows us not to spend that premium and bring those costs down in 2024.

這只是我所談論的基本內容。我們有很多非常強大的想法，我們正在忙於執行這些想法：供應鏈的穩定性，消除大量浪費和貨運成本。所以我們花了很多錢，我們所有人都花了很多錢在高級運費上。我們開始在第四季、第三季和第四季看到更穩定的供應鏈，這使我們能夠不必花費這筆溢價，並在 2024 年降低這些成本。

Emmanuel, the other thing I would add to that is that when you look at '22 and '23, we were very much behind the curve of supply base, catching up to where they were and understanding what was driving their inefficiencies in claims. And we spent a lot of time in 2023 getting out in front of that. And I would say that we ended '23 with a great work that Liz has done to be at a very different place with our supply base. And now we're working together with them very proactively across Kumar's industrial system to identify efficiencies, things that we can change to help them and, as Kumar said, design actions, et cetera, things like that, that will make them more efficient as well. So that's another bit of color to add to that.

Emmanuel，我要補充的另一件事是，當你看看'22和'23時，我們遠遠落後於供應基礎的曲線，趕上了他們的水平，並了解是什麼導致了他們的索賠效率低下。 2023 年，我們花了很多時間來解決這個問題。我想說的是，我們以 Liz 所做的出色工作結束了 23 年，使我們的供應基地處於非常不同的位置。現在，我們正在庫馬爾的工業系統中非常積極地與他們合作，以確定效率，我們可以改變以幫助他們的事情，正如庫馬爾所說，設計行動等等，這將使他們更加高效出色地。這是要添加的另一個色彩。

Just a quick follow-up on this. The -- should we -- will these things take time to play out? I guess I'm looking at your fourth quarter walk and still on freight was still like a $1 billion headwind. So curious if you would need a number of quarters and then it would be a bit more back-end loaded? Or if we could sort of like turn on the switch and see some of these benefits in 2024? And then secondly, curious about your thoughts about the volume outlook for this year, especially for Ford Blue. I think some of the inventory days are sort of like towards the higher end of what you've historically been comfortable with. And so I'm wondering where you see volume growth for this year.

只是對此進行快速跟進。這些事情需要時間才能解決嗎？我想我正在看你第四季的表現，貨運仍然是 10 億美元的逆風。很好奇您是否需要多個季度，然後後端加載會多一點？或者我們可以打開開關並在 2024 年看到其中一些好處？其次，好奇您對今年銷售前景的看法，尤其是福特藍色。我認為某些庫存天數有點像您歷來所接受的較高水準。所以我想知道今年的銷售成長在哪裡。

Yes, so a lot in there. What I think you should see from a calendarization standpoint on the cost for 2024 is that you'll see, as Kumar said, a lot of these are the design actions we've been working to identify in 2023 that have built up this cadre of actions we call the hopper. And those will start coming through on the model year turnover. So more towards the middle of the year, you'll start to see a lot more traction there on those. Some of the manufacturing improvements, you'll see throughout the quarters, probably a little bit more of an even flow of those, I would say, right, Kumar?

是的，裡面有很多。我認為，從日曆的角度來看，2024 年的成本應該是，正如 Kumar 所說，其中許多都是我們一直在 2023 年確定的設計行動，這些行動已經建立了這一骨幹隊伍。我們稱之為漏斗的動作。這些將在車型年營業額中開始體現。因此，到了年中，你會開始看到這些方面有更多的吸引力。您將在整個季度中看到一些製造方面的改進，這些改進可能會更加均勻，我想說，對吧，庫馬爾？

And so that's where we're at. When you look at our days' supply, when you look at our Blue days' supply, retail deal days' supply is in the low to mid-50s, so it's at about the limit of where we expect it to be. So leaning back that into volume, we expect the industry to be -- for the year, we expect it to be about [16 to 16 5], so maybe up 3% to 4% for us from a wholesale standpoint about that. From a planning perspective, that's where we're at. From a pricing perspective, we're planning to see about a 2% decline, negative pricing.

這就是我們現在的處境。當您查看我們的天數供應量時，當您查看我們的藍色天數供應量時，零售交易天數的供應量在 50 多天左右，因此大約處於我們預期的極限。因此，從數量上看，我們預計今年該行業的銷量約為 [16 至 16 5]，因此從批發的角度來看，我們的銷量可能會增長 3% 至 4%。從規劃的角度來看，這就是我們所處的位置。從定價角度來看，我們預計會出現 2% 左右的下降，即負定價。

And then when you step back and you look at that from an affordability standpoint, we think 2024 is the year where affordability is going to get back to pre-pandemic levels, where the monthly disposable income it takes to buy a vehicle should be back to about that 13% to 13.5%, which is what we saw before pandemic. So we're going to continue to see some top line pressure on Blue. We've got new product coming in Blue, which is going to give us some mix and some tailwind there. So that's going to be a positive for Blue.

然後，當你退後一步，從負擔能力的角度來看，我們認為 2024 年，負擔能力將恢復到大流行前的水平，購買車輛所需的每月可支配收入應該恢復到大約13% 到13.5 %，這是我們在大流行之前看到的。因此，我們將繼續看到 Blue 面臨一些頂線壓力。我們推出了藍色的新產品，這將為我們帶來一些混合和一些順風。所以這對 Blue 來說是積極的。

And then I think Jim covered off Pro. We're seeing incredible demand on Pro. And as you know, Emmanuel, those commercial orders come in 2 tranches. Half of them came in last year so they're all set. The other half are coming through now and we're continuing to see strength there.

然後我認為 Jim 掩蓋了 Pro。我們看到對 Pro 的需求令人難以置信。如你所知，伊曼紐爾，這些商業訂單分為兩部分。其中一半是去年進來的，所以都已經準備好了。另一半現在正在經歷，我們繼續看到那裡的力量。

And that portfolio is going to be [refreshed] or new by the year-end.

該投資組合將在年底前進行[更新]或更新。

The next question is from James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

Just wondering if you could help dimension EV volumes for this year associated with the $5 billion-plus in Model e losses. And then with respect to Ford Pro's midteens margins this year, just curious on the impact tied to the fleet demand for EVs beyond companies, of course. Like do you foresee a step-up in Pro EV volumes for the year, no Model e losses getting more difficult. So just how are you thinking about the EV dynamic for Pro profitability as well?

只是想知道您是否可以幫助確定今年與 Model e 損失超過 50 億美元相關的電動車銷量。然後，就福特 Pro 今年的 15% 左右的利潤率而言，當然，我們只是好奇與公司以外的電動車需求相關的影響。就像您預計今年 Pro EV 銷售量會增加一樣，Model e 的損失不會變得更加困難。那麼您如何看待 Pro 獲利能力的 EV 動態呢？

On the retail side, I'll ask Marin to answer that. On Pro, absolutely, our EV sales will grow not only because we're seeing more interest because the cost of ownership is advantageous for some fleet, but we're also expanding in Europe quite a bit our electric offering with our 2 Transit vans coming online. And so that will definitely -- and there are a lot of city closures and other kind of regulations in Europe that's driving adoption for electric vehicles, especially vans specifically. So yes, we'll have very robust growth in our EVs for Pro.

在零售方面，我會請馬林來回答這個問題。在Pro 上，我們的電動車銷量絕對會成長，不僅因為我們看到了更多的興趣，因為擁有成本對某些車隊來說是有利的，而且我們還在歐洲擴大了我們的電動產品，我們的2 輛Transit 貨車即將推出線上的。因此，這肯定會發生——歐洲有很多城市關閉和其他類型的法規正在推動電動車的採用，特別是貨車。所以，是的，我們的 Pro 電動車將會有非常強勁的成長。

Yes. We expect growth in sales on the retail side as well. Remember, we had times where we were out of production last year on Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning. So we'll be overlapping those, we'll see growth. And then more importantly, we're launching Explorer in Europe in the second half of this year so that's going to be a new offering that will help us grow. So we expect to see substantial unit volume growth.

是的。我們預計零售方面的銷售額也會成長。請記住，去年我們的 Mustang Mach-E 和 F-150 Lightning 曾經一度停產。所以我們將重疊這些，我們會看到成長。更重要的是，我們將於今年下半年在歐洲推出 Explorer，這將是有助於我們發展的新產品。因此，我們預計單位銷售將大幅成長。

And John, I know you touched on this already but are supplier cost reductions a core component of the $2 billion in savings for the year? Just wondering how commercial negotiations have progressed? And are there any areas that stand out in terms of opportunity?

約翰，我知道您已經談到了這一點，但是供應商成本削減是今年 20 億美元節省的核心組成部分嗎？只是想知道商業談判進展如何？有哪些領域在機會上表現突出？

Yes. A lot of the $2 billion is, again, through the manufacturing system so it's the industrial efficiencies that we've been working on. And then from a design and material standpoint, it's mostly design reductions that are part of the $2 billion on a year-over-year basis. So it's those actions that we've been benchmarking and working on similar to the ideas that Kumar had described, pretty much design-related.

是的。同樣，這 20 億美元中的很大一部分是透過製造系統實現的，因此我們一直致力於提高工業效率。然後從設計和材料的角度來看，年比 20 億美元的成本主要是設計的減少。因此，我們一直在對這些行動進行基準測試並致力於類似於庫馬爾所描述的想法，幾乎與設計相關。

So design, labor and freight primarily.

所以設計、人工和貨運為主。

And the final question today comes from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

今天的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Obviously, a strong guide in aggregate. Digging into, though, the higher anticipated Model e losses of $5 billion to $5.5 billion, what is embedded within that from like a variable contribution margin perspective? How do you expect that to progress throughout '24? And then could we also check in a little bit longer term on how you're feeling about that Model e margin target of, I think, it's 8% by the end of '26 annualized, right? Including after GM recently lowered their '25 EV margin target.

顯然，總體而言，這是一個強有力的指導。然而，深入研究 Model e 預期較高的 50 億至 55 億美元損失，從可變邊際貢獻的角度來看，其中蘊含著什麼？您預計整個 24 年會取得怎樣的進展？然後，我們是否還可以從更長遠的角度來了解您對 Model e 利潤率目標的看法，我認為，到 26 年底，年化利潤率目標為 8%，對嗎？包括通用汽車最近降低了'25 EV 利潤率目標。

And given that I think you rolled out that 8% before Tesla cut their prices and saw their overall margin actually like decline to be basically in line with yours. If you're still targeting an 8% with the '24 guide out there now, it's really only '25 is the mystery. So it seems like quite a step-up then over the course of '25 to '26.

鑑於我認為你在特斯拉降價之前就推出了 8%，並且看到他們的整體利潤率實際上下降了，基本上與你的一致。如果您現在仍將 24 世紀指南的目標定為 8%，那麼實際上只有 25 世紀才是謎。因此，在 25 年到 26 年的過程中，這似乎是一個相當大的進步。

I know you do expect a big boost from those second-generation EVs you discussed earlier but in comparison to the mixed fuel models. But is that just -- is that enough to get you to the 8% or are there other sources of improvement that need to layer in over '25 and '26? I don't know, vertical integration or what are those sources of savings? And how are you feeling about that target?

我知道您確實期望您之前討論的第二代電動車與混合燃料車型相比有很大的提升。但這是否足以讓您達到 8%，或者是否有其他改進來源需要在 25 和 26 中分層？我不知道，垂直整合或節省的來源是什麼？您對這個目標有何感覺？

Yes. So I think it's clear, given the dynamics in the marketplace and the way the top line come down significantly since we had put that out there that the 8% is not in the 2026 time period. So I think that's clear. I don't think anybody believes that by '26, we can bridge from here to 8%. It's going to come down to launching our next generation of vehicles and improving the contribution margin, gross margin, as Marin has said, on the first generation as we go through the year.

是的。因此，考慮到市場的動態以及自我們提出 8% 不在 2026 年期間以來收入顯著下降的方式，我認為這一點很清楚。所以我認為這很清楚。我認為沒有人相信到 26 年，我們可以從現在的水平提高到 8%。正如馬林所說，我們將在這一年中推出下一代車輛，並提高第一代車輛的貢獻率和毛利率。

But Marin, do you want to add more color to that?

但是馬林，你想為此添加更多色彩嗎？

John, I think that's right. I think it's really the levers we're pulling this year to improve gross margin over time on Gen 1 and then really sticking to the capital discipline and the operating discipline around launching Gen 2 only when they can be profitable and deliver the kind of returns we want. And over time, that will build a stand-alone profitable EV business.

約翰，我認為這是對的。我認為，我們今年確實採取了槓桿措施，隨著時間的推移提高第一代的毛利率，然後只有當它們能夠盈利並提供我們所期望的回報時，才真正堅持圍繞推出第二代的資本紀律和營運紀律。想。隨著時間的推移，這將建立一個獨立盈利的電動車業務。

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has also now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節到此結束，會議也結束了。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。