福特汽車 (F) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Gary, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

女士們先生們，美好的一天。我叫加里，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，歡迎大家參加福特汽車公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給投資者關係執行總監 Lynn Antipas Tyson。

Thank you, Gary, and welcome to the Ford Motor Company's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer; and also for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit.

謝謝加里，歡迎來到福特汽車公司 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Farley；約翰·勞勒，首席財務官； Ford Credit 的首席執行官 Marion Harris 也參與了問答環節。

Today's discussions include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論包括一些非 GAAP 參考資料。這些與我們收益平台附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則指標相一致。您可以在 shareholder.ford.com 上找到我們的其他收益材料和其他重要內容。

Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated, the most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 25. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis and product mix is volume-weighted.

我們的討論還包括有關我們預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同，第 25 頁包含可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素。除非另有說明，否則所有比較均為同比。公司的息稅前利潤、每股收益和自由現金流是經過調整的，產品組合是按數量加權的。

I want to make sure you've got a few near-term IR engagements on your calendars. On May 21 and 22, we'll host our Capital Markets event in Dearborn, Michigan. For the first time in over 7 years, we're looking forward to welcoming representatives of the capital markets to our headquarters. The event will feature unprecedented experiences, including one of the largest displays of our global vehicle portfolio in recent memory and immersive presentations on the strategic plans of our 3 new customer-centered business segments. We will also feature details of our software and services strategy, both retail and commercial, as well as ample time to network with our senior leaders.

我想確保您的日曆上有一些近期的 IR 約定。 5 月 21 日至 22 日，我們將在密歇根州迪爾伯恩舉辦資本市場活動。 7 年多來，我們首次歡迎資本市場代表來到我們的總部。該活動將帶來前所未有的體驗，包括近期記憶中最大的全球汽車產品組合展示之一，以及我們 3 個以客戶為中心的新業務部門戰略計劃的沉浸式演示。我們還將詳細介紹我們的軟件和服務戰略，包括零售和商業，以及充足的時間與我們的高層領導交流。

On May 25, Jim Farley will keynote at Morgan Stanley Sustainability Conference in New York City. And on May 31, Jim will participate in a fireside chat with Toni Sacconaghi at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, also in New York City.

5 月 25 日，Jim Farley 將在紐約市的摩根士丹利可持續發展大會上發表主題演講。 5 月 31 日，Jim 將參加同樣在紐約市舉行的 Bernstein 戰略決策會議，與 Toni Sacconaghi 進行爐邊談話。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.

現在我會把電話轉給吉姆。

Thank you, Lynn. And hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. I'd bottom line the first quarter like this. Our team delivered a solid quarter while making real progress on our Ford+ growth plan. And I hope that becomes a trend at Ford, boringly predictable when it comes to execution and delivering financials, but extremely ambitious and dynamic in creating the Ford of the future.

謝謝你，林恩。大家好，感謝今天加入我們。我會這樣總結第一季度。我們的團隊在實現福特+增長計劃的同時取得了穩健的季度業績。我希望這成為福特的一種趨勢，在執行和交付財務方面可以預測得令人厭煩，但在創造未來的福特方面卻極具雄心和活力。

For the quarter, we saw growth across all of our key metrics. In addition, Ford Pro and Blue were profitable in every region where we operate. Our balance sheet is strong. We ended the quarter with close to $29 billion in cash, even as we invest in growth and return capital to our shareholders.

本季度，我們看到了所有關鍵指標的增長。此外，福特 Pro 和 Blue 在我們運營的每個地區都實現了盈利。我們的資產負債表很強勁。我們在本季度結束時擁有近 290 億美元的現金，即使我們投資於增長並向股東返還資本。

With each quarter that passes, I'm more confident and convinced and thankful we made the decision to create 3 separate customer-focused businesses. This has unleashed clarity, speed and accountability across the company not to mention a whole new level of discipline on capital allocation. So let me cover a few highlights.

隨著每個季度的過去，我更加自信、更加確信和感謝我們決定創建 3 個獨立的以客戶為中心的業務。這在整個公司範圍內釋放了清晰度、速度和問責制，更不用說在資本配置方面達到了全新的紀律水平。因此，讓我介紹一些要點。

I'd like to start with Ford Pro. I know many of you were surprised at the true size of the Pro business in March when we recast our financials. Pro starts with marketing leadership in our vehicles across the world, tremendous scale and customer knowledge. And we're layering on top of that the future of our industry, an ecosystem of software and services and EV charging that we believe will be invaluable to our commercial customers. And this will unlock tremendous loyalty and profitable growth. Our strong order books in North America and Europe, as well as all the demand signals we can see for Pro, support our target to nearly double Pro's EBIT this year.

我想從福特 Pro 開始。我知道 3 月份我們重塑財務時，你們中的許多人對 Pro 業務的真實規模感到驚訝。 Pro 從我們在全球汽車領域的營銷領導地位、巨大的規模和客戶知識開始。我們在我們行業的未來之上分層，我們相信這對我們的商業客戶來說將是無價的軟件和服務生態系統以及電動汽車充電。這將釋放巨大的忠誠度和盈利增長。我們在北美和歐洲的強勁訂單，以及我們可以看到的 Pro 的所有需求信號，支持我們今年將 Pro 的息稅前利潤提高近一倍的目標。

In March, we launched the all-new Super Duty in Kentucky and Ohio. It has received tremendous reception, and it's going to strengthen a franchise that is already the market leader. Importantly, Super Duty is a platform for software and services that help our customers maximize their uptime, accelerate the productivity and lower total cost of ownership. I would also say the Super Duty launch is a good case study for the disciplined approach we're implementing across our industrial system.

3 月，我們在肯塔基州和俄亥俄州推出了全新的 Super Duty。它受到了廣泛的歡迎，並且將加強已經是市場領導者的特許經營權。重要的是，Super Duty 是一個軟件和服務平台，可幫助我們的客戶最大限度地延長正常運行時間、提高生產力並降低總體擁有成本。我還想說 Super Duty 的發布是一個很好的案例研究，用於研究我們在整個工業系統中實施的嚴格方法。

Simply put, we slowed the launch down, significantly increased on-road and in-plant quality testing. We dispatched a large and skilled launch team to our plant. We added test vehicles. We drove millions of miles to prove our durability, and we deployed new technology and artificial intelligence to catch issues. Basically, we put all the pressure in the system to find and then prevent future quality issues rather than speeding up the line to match our launch curve. Short-term patience, we believe, that will result in long-term gain for our customers and, yes, the company.

簡而言之，我們放慢了發布速度，顯著增加了公路和廠內質量測試。我們向我們的工廠派遣了一支龐大而熟練的發射團隊。我們增加了測試車輛。我們行駛了數百萬英里以證明我們的耐用性，並且我們部署了新技術和人工智能來發現問題。基本上，我們將所有壓力都放在系統中以發現並防止未來的質量問題，而不是加快生產線以匹配我們的發布曲線。我們相信，短期的耐心將為我們的客戶和公司帶來長期收益。

In the quarter, Ford Pro extended its leadership in true commercial vehicle categories. Our share of the Class 1 through 7 truck and vans in the U.S. increased by 1 full share point to 41% share. In Europe, we've already been the top commercial brand for 8 years now running, and our share grew to more than 15%. We also maintained our EV strength in North America and Europe. In the U.S., E-Transit has already a 50% market share. In the quarter, we won a contract to deliver more than 9,000 E-Transit vans to the U.S. Postal Service.

本季度，福特 Pro 擴大了其在真正的商用車類別中的領先地位。我們在美國 1 級至 7 級卡車和貨車的份額增加了 1 個完整的份額點，達到 41%。在歐洲，我們已經連續 8 年成為頂級商業品牌，我們的份額增長到 15% 以上。我們還保持了在北美和歐洲的電動汽車實力。在美國，E-Transit 已經佔據了 50% 的市場份額。本季度，我們贏得了向美國郵政服務交付 9,000 多輛 E-Transit 貨車的合同。

Ford Pro's paid software subscriptions rose 64% in the quarter, including higher revenue per unit software sales like our telematics and charging software. With these and all the other initiatives, Ford Pro is developing into a resilient business, certainly less cyclical than the broader automotive sector.

福特 Pro 的付費軟件訂閱在本季度增長了 64%，其中包括我們的遠程信息處理和充電軟件等軟件銷售的單位收入增加。憑藉這些和所有其他舉措，Ford Pro 正在發展成為一家有彈性的企業，與更廣泛的汽車行業相比，週期性肯定更小。

In Ford Blue, the team is focused on capitalizing on our red-hot product lineup. Our opportunity to smartly grow extends to valuable franchises with great pricing power, like the F-150, the new Maverick, the new Bronco and, of course, the Mustang. We'll grow our leadership position in pickups, in off-road, in performance and in SUVs with all new derivatives. For example, we just introduced the Bronco less than 3 years ago. And already, it's neck and neck in sales with the Jeep Wrangler, and it has higher transaction prices. We've also recently expanded the Bronco lineup with exciting derivatives like the Bronco Everglades, the Bronco Raptor and the Bronco Heritage.

在 Ford Blue 中，團隊專注於利用我們炙手可熱的產品系列。我們巧妙發展的機會擴展到具有強大定價權的有價值的特許經營權，例如 F-150、新 Maverick、新 Bronco，當然還有 Mustang。我們將在皮卡、越野車、性能車和 SUV 以及所有新的衍生產品中鞏固我們的領導地位。例如，不到 3 年前，我們剛剛推出了 Bronco。而且，它已經與吉普牧馬人在銷量上並駕齊驅，而且成交價更高。我們最近還通過 Bronco Everglades、Bronco Raptor 和 Bronco Heritage 等激動人心的衍生產品擴展了 Bronco 產品線。

Derivatives not only continue to contribute to our growth, but importantly, they can also drive higher transaction prices and higher returns. See, these derivatives often have 80% part commonality with the base models, but their contribution margin percent can be 30% higher, with a twofold increase in capital efficiency. We also have one of the strongest product years coming for Ford Blue. So it's just beginning.

衍生品不僅繼續為我們的增長做出貢獻，更重要的是，它們還可以推動更高的交易價格和更高的回報。你看，這些衍生品通常與基礎模型有 80% 的部分共性，但它們的邊際收益百分比可以高出 30%，資本效率提高兩倍。我們還將迎來 Ford Blue 最強勁的產品年之一。所以這才剛剛開始。

We have the new Escape, including new hybrid. It's just arriving in dealerships now. Next week, we will reveal the all-new Ranger in the highly anticipated Ranger Raptor. That will be followed by an all-new Mustang and high-performance Dark Horse Mustang this summer. While I can't get into the details yet, we have more exciting news to share about 2 of America's best-selling vehicles, the F-150 and the Explorer later this year. And on top of all that, we have the Lincoln Corsair arriving at dealerships now. And of course, we just revealed the Lincoln Nautilus.

我們有新的 Escape，包括新的混合動力車。它現在剛剛到達經銷商處。下週，我們將在備受期待的 Ranger Raptor 中展示全新的 Ranger。緊隨其後的是今年夏天的全新野馬和高性能黑馬野馬。雖然我還不能透露細節，但我們有更多令人振奮的消息要在今年晚些時候分享美國最暢銷的 2 款車型 F-150 和 Explorer。最重要的是，我們現在有林肯海盜船到達經銷商處。當然，我們剛剛展示了林肯鸚鵡螺號。

Now Ford Model e operates with a start-up intensity to build a profitable EV business with a differentiated portfolio and a differentiated customer experience. U.S. investors now have true visibility into how Ford Model e's profitability strengthens over time supported by volume-driven operating leverage, improvements in design and efficiency and, of course, lower battery costs. We're on track this year towards a contribution margin approaching breakeven in Model e and for our first-generation products to be EBIT margin-positive by the end of next year.

現在，福特 Model e 以啟動強度運營，以建立具有差異化產品組合和差異化客戶體驗的有利可圖的電動汽車業務。美國投資者現在可以真正了解福特 Model e 的盈利能力如何隨著時間的推移而增強，這得益於銷量驅動的運營槓桿、設計和效率的改進，當然還有更低的電池成本。我們今年有望在 Model e 中實現接近盈虧平衡的邊際貢獻，並且到明年年底我們的第一代產品將實現 EBIT 利潤率正增長。

Whole sales were down in the quarter, which deleveraged our cost structure. Part of the decline was planned as we have brought Mustang Mach-E production down for several weeks so we could almost double the capacity, and we are now hitting that 35 jump per hour run rate in the plant. Volumes were also impacted by the lower output of F-150 Lightning. We did the right thing, and I congratulate my team many times by immediately stopping production and working with our battery supplier, finding and then fixing the root cause of the fire that happened on the Ford property. We're now shipping Lightnings again, taking new orders and increasing production to an annual run rate of 150,000 units, about double what we do now.

本季度整體銷售額下降，這削弱了我們的成本結構。部分下降是有計劃的，因為我們已經將 Mustang Mach-E 的產量降低了數週，因此我們幾乎可以將產能翻一番，而且我們現在工廠的運行速度達到了每小時 35 跳。銷量也受到 F-150 Lightning 較低產量的影響。我們做了正確的事情，我多次祝賀我的團隊立即停止生產並與我們的電池供應商合作，找到並解決了福特財產發生火災的根本原因。我們現在再次出貨 Lightning，接受新訂單並將產量提高到 150,000 台的年產量，大約是我們現在產量的兩倍。

We are also revealing -- we revealed an all-electric Explorer in Europe, which is now very well received. We made progress on Model e in the quarter, advancing our industrial system to scale EVs. The site preparation is already underway for our LFP battery plant in Michigan. And construction continues at the Blue Oval SK Battery Park in Kentucky and, of course, BlueOval City in Tennessee. We now plan to transform our Oakville assembly complex into a Canadian hub of electric vehicle and battery pack manufacturing.

我們還透露了——我們在歐洲展示了一款全電動 Explorer，現在很受歡迎。我們在本季度在 Model e 方面取得了進展，推進了我們的工業系統以擴展電動汽車。我們在密歇根州的 LFP 電池廠的場地準備工作已經在進行中。肯塔基州的 Blue Oval SK Battery Park 和田納西州的 BlueOval City 也在繼續建設。我們現在計劃將我們的奧克維爾裝配廠改造成加拿大的電動汽車和電池組製造中心。

We also continue to make progress towards locking in all the raw materials that we need to support our capacity targets in 2006 and beyond. Model e is our center of excellence for technology, including software. A good example of that is BlueCruise, which continues to be a hit with our customers. Consumer Reports rated it the top advanced, hands-free driver assist system on the market in the U.S., and that was just version 1.0. Our latest release, which we're OTA-ing into customers, is version 1.2. It automatically changes lanes with the tap of a turn signal, and it delivers a much more natural driving experience hands-free.

我們還在鎖定支持 2006 年及以後產能目標所需的所有原材料方面繼續取得進展。 Model e 是我們的卓越技術中心，包括軟件。 BlueCruise 就是一個很好的例子，它繼續受到我們客戶的歡迎。 《消費者報告》將其評為美國市場上最先進的免提駕駛輔助系統，而那隻是 1.0 版。我們正在向客戶提供 OTA 的最新版本是 1.2 版。它會在輕按轉向燈時自動變換車道，並提供更自然的免提駕駛體驗。

We also launched BlueCruise in the U.K., our Mustang Mach-E, and became the first OEM to gain approval for hands-free highway driving speed anywhere in Europe with more than -- and now BlueCruise has more than 70 million miles driven to date, and we continue to upgrade BlueCruise for customers with each over their update.

我們還在英國推出了 BlueCruise，我們的 Mustang Mach-E，並成為歐洲任何地方第一家獲得免提高速公路行駛速度批准的 OEM，現在 BlueCruise 迄今已行駛超過 7000 萬英里，我們會繼續為客戶升級 BlueCruise，每次更新。

Before I turn it over to John, I want to share our thoughts on how the EV market is evolving in our eyes. It's easy to look at the landscape of the EV market as a monolith. But we plan to be surgical about where we play and how we win with the right products, the right cost structure and the right price points. We do not subscribe to a win vehicle share at any cost approach. We look at share of vehicles, of course, and share revenue. We also look at share profits and share of the customer lifetime value, and we believe this is the only way to ensure we drive appropriate return on capital over time.

在我把它交給約翰之前，我想分享一下我們對電動汽車市場在我們眼中如何演變的看法。很容易將電動汽車市場的格局視為一個整體。但我們計劃對我們在哪裡玩以及我們如何通過正確的產品、正確的成本結構和正確的價格點取勝進行外科手術。我們不以任何成本方式認購勝利車輛份額。當然，我們會查看車輛份額並分享收入。我們還關注共享利潤和客戶生命週期價值的份額，我們相信這是確保我們隨著時間的推移推動適當的資本回報的唯一方法。

By 2025, we now expect there to be 45 EV models to be offered in the U.S. in the small, medium utility segment. It will be a very saturated 2-row EV market. Against this backdrop, to ensure profitable growth, we know we have to have a fresh, compelling offering with the right cost structure, something we continue to improve with the Mustang Mach-E.

到 2025 年，我們現在預計美國將在中小型公用事業領域提供 45 款 EV 車型。這將是一個非常飽和的兩排電動汽車市場。在這種背景下，為了確保盈利增長，我們知道我們必須提供具有正確成本結構的全新、引人注目的產品，我們通過 Mustang Mach-E 繼續改進這一點。

We also found that customers are very loyal to full EV powertrains once they enter, but they are not brand-loyal for their first purchase. We capitalize on that by getting to the market early with the Mustang Mach-E and our whole lineup, and it continues to reward us with over 60% of the customers new to Ford. We're seeing that the second EV purchase is much more loyal to the brand in these developed EV markets. So we're glad that we have all these customers in our digital and physical ecosystem.

我們還發現，客戶一旦進入就對全電動動力總成非常忠誠，但他們在首次購買時並不忠誠於品牌。我們利用這一點，將 Mustang Mach-E 和我們的整個產品線提前推向市場，並繼續為我們帶來超過 60% 的福特新客戶。我們看到，在這些發達的電動汽車市場中，第二次購買電動汽車對品牌的忠誠度要高得多。因此，我們很高興在我們的數字和物理生態系統中擁有所有這些客戶。

We are aggressively lowering our product costs for our current and next-generation products. You'll find out a lot more in Capital Markets Day. But in fact, for Mustang Mach-E from launch through the end of this year, we'll have reduced the bill of materials for Mustang Mach-E by $5,000 per vehicle.

我們正在積極降低當前和下一代產品的產品成本。您會在資本市場日了解更多信息。但事實上，對於 Mustang Mach-E，從發佈到今年年底，我們會將每輛車的 Mustang Mach-E 材料清單減少 5,000 美元。

Now in contrast to 2-row crossovers that we believe will be a very saturated market, we believe Model e can be highly differentiated in markets where we know the customer well, like the 3-row utility space. And as I said, we'll share more at our Capital Markets event later this month on our product strategy.

現在，與我們認為將成為一個非常飽和的市場的 2 排跨界車相比，我們相信 Model e 在我們熟悉客戶的市場中可以高度差異化，例如 3 排公用空間。正如我所說，我們將在本月晚些時候的資本市場活動中分享更多關於我們產品戰略的信息。

I had a chance, along with John and most of our leadership team, to go to China in the last few weeks and look at the EV market in a Gemba, go-and-see activity up close. It's interesting to see how customers are no longer just attracted to traditional luxury brands with EVs or even hardware design anymore. Outstanding hardware styling, performance, quality are just a given in the EV digital marketplace today. The best new brands are offering integrated digital, retail, lifestyle and experience that are software defined. This is firmly in our sights for our second-generation EVs.

在過去的幾周里，我有機會與約翰和我們的大部分領導團隊一起前往中國，並在 Gemba 中近距離觀察電動汽車市場。有趣的是，客戶不再僅僅被具有電動汽車甚至硬件設計的傳統奢侈品牌所吸引。出色的硬件造型、性能和質量在當今的 EV 數字市場中是理所當然的。最好的新品牌正在提供軟件定義的集成數字、零售、生活方式和體驗。這是我們第二代電動汽車的堅定目標。

This software as a differentiator, plus a radically different cost structure and the ability to attract -- attach value-added software and services, gives us confidence we can compete and win in unit, revenue, profit and vehicle share while delivering appropriate returns. And Ford Pro is already there.

該軟件作為差異化因素，加上截然不同的成本結構和吸引附加增值軟件和服務的能力，使我們有信心在單位、收入、利潤和車輛份額方面競爭並獲勝，同時提供適當的回報。福特 Pro 已經在那裡了。

I'll wrap up by saying we are pleased but we are not satisfied. As I said, solid execution and some really thrilling progress advancing our Ford+ plan. I look forward to seeing many of you in person in 3 weeks for our capital markets event where we will go much deeper into our strategy and our progress. John?

最後，我會說我們很高興，但我們並不滿意。正如我所說，紮實的執行力和一些真正令人振奮的進展推進了我們的福特+計劃。我期待在 3 週內與你們中的許多人見面，參加我們的資本市場活動，屆時我們將更深入地了解我們的戰略和進展。約翰？

Thanks, Jim. First quarter wholesales were up 9% year-over-year as we delivered $3.4 billion in adjusted EBIT. Margin was 8.1%, up 140 basis points. Ford Blue and Ford Pro profit improved, reflecting favorable mix and higher net pricing. And as expected, those benefits were partially offset with a loss in Model e as we invest in our clean sheet next-generation EVs and scale our leading portfolio of first-generation electric vehicles.

謝謝，吉姆。第一季度批發量同比增長 9%，我們實現了 34 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤。利潤率為 8.1%，上升 140 個基點。 Ford Blue 和 Ford Pro 的利潤有所改善，反映出有利的組合和更高的淨定價。正如預期的那樣，隨著我們投資於全新的下一代電動汽車並擴大我們領先的第一代電動汽車產品組合，這些收益被 Model e 的虧損部分抵消了。

For the quarter, we delivered $700 million of adjusted free cash flow, improving consistent free cash flow from our industrial footprint, combined with disciplined capital allocation, provides us with significant flexibility to fund our growth while also consistently returning capital to our shareholders. Our balance sheet remains strong. We ended the quarter with close to $29 billion of cash and over $46 billion of liquidity. In addition, despite the recent market volatility, we successfully completed the renewal of our $17 billion sustainability-linked corporate credit facilities.

本季度，我們提供了 7 億美元的調整後自由現金流，改善了我們工業足蹟的持續自由現金流，結合有紀律的資本配置，為我們的增長提供了極大的靈活性，同時也持續向股東返還資本。我們的資產負債表依然強勁。本季度結束時，我們擁有近 290 億美元的現金和超過 460 億美元的流動資金。此外，儘管近期市場波動，我們仍成功完成了 170 億美元與可持續發展相關的企業信貸額度的更新。

So turning to our customer-focused business segments. With wholesales up 6%, Ford Blue delivered $2.6 billion in EBIT and a 10.4% margin. That was 400 basis points higher than a year ago, supported by favorable mix and higher volume. Our fresh and exciting product lineup continues to drive strong demand. Wholesales for Model e declined in the quarter, reflecting planned downtime that allowed us to almost double our production capacity for Mustang Mach-E.

因此，轉向我們以客戶為中心的業務部門。隨著批發量增長 6%，Ford Blue 實現了 26 億美元的息稅前利潤和 10.4% 的利潤率。這比一年前高出 400 個基點，這得益於有利的組合和更高的交易量。我們令人興奮的新鮮產品系列繼續推動強勁的需求。本季度 Model e 的批發量下降，反映出計劃中的停機時間使我們的 Mustang Mach-E 產能幾乎翻了一番。

Now the profitability of any EV start-up, including Ford Model e, is highly levered to volume. Importantly, holding volume constant, our first quarter EBIT margin would have been roughly flat compared to the fourth quarter, at around negative 40%. We expect Ford Model e EBIT margin to improve to around negative 20% in the second half of this year, reflecting stronger per unit contribution margin and significantly higher volumes. In fact, we expect Model e contribution margin to approach breakeven this year, and we continue to target positive EBIT margin for our first-generation vehicles by the end of 2024.

現在，包括福特 Model e 在內的任何電動汽車初創企業的盈利能力都高度依賴於銷量。重要的是，在保持銷量不變的情況下，我們第一季度的息稅前利潤率與第四季度相比大致持平，約為負 40%。我們預計今年下半年福特 Model e 的息稅前利潤率將提高至負 20% 左右，反映出更強的單位貢獻利潤率和顯著增加的銷量。事實上，我們預計 Model e 的貢獻利潤率今年將接近盈虧平衡，並且我們繼續將我們的第一代汽車的息稅前利潤率目標定為到 2024 年底為正。

Ford Pro delivered an 18% increase in wholesales. And EBIT improved $900 million to $1.4 billion for the quarter, delivering a margin of 10.3%. The improvement in profitability was supported by higher net pricing, increased volume and favorable mix. Importantly, this was achieved during a quarter when wholesales for Super Duty were down, both year-over-year and sequentially, as we ramped up production of our all-new version of this highly popular truck.

Ford Pro 的批發量增長了 18%。本季度息稅前利潤增加 9 億美元至 14 億美元，利潤率為 10.3%。盈利能力的提高得益於更高的淨定價、增加的銷量和有利的組合。重要的是，這是在 Super Duty 批發量同比和環比下降的一個季度內實現的，因為我們提高了這款廣受歡迎的卡車的全新版本的產量。

Ford Credit delivered EBT of $300 million, down $600 million from a year ago, reflecting lower financing margin, higher credit losses and lower lease income, all of which has been reflected in our full year outlook. Credit loss performance remains strong and is still below the historical average but beginning to normalize. Auction values remain robust, but down from their peak in the first half of 2022. Ford Credit liquidity remained strong at $26 billion, up $5 billion from year-end. In addition, despite the volatile market conditions, the company has already completed $12 billion of public issuance or roughly 50% of its 2023 funding plan.

福特信貸交付了 3 億美元的 EBT，比一年前減少了 6 億美元，反映出較低的融資利潤率、較高的信貸損失和較低的租賃收入，所有這些都反映在我們的全年展望中。信用損失表現依然強勁，仍低於歷史平均水平，但開始正常化。拍賣價值依然強勁，但低於 2022 年上半年的峰值。福特信貸流動性保持強勁，達到 260 億美元，比年底增加 50 億美元。此外，儘管市場環境動盪，但該公司已完成 120 億美元的公開發行，約佔其 2023 年融資計劃的 50%。

Turning to our outlook. We continue to expect full year 2023 total company adjusted EBIT of $9 billion to $11 billion, adjusted free cash flow of about $6 billion and capital expenditures between $8 billion to $9 billion. This guidance includes headwinds that reflect global economic uncertainty, higher industry-wide customer incentives as vehicle supply and demand rebalance, lower past service pension income, exchange and investments in growth such as customer service and connected services; and tailwinds driven by improvement in the supply chain, our higher industry volume with SAARs of about $15 million and $13 million in the U.S. and Europe, respectively, launch of our all-new Super Duty and lower cost of goods sold, including materials and commodities.

轉向我們的前景。我們繼續預計 2023 年全年公司調整後息稅前利潤為 90 億美元至 110 億美元，調整後自由現金流約為 60 億美元，資本支出在 80 億美元至 90 億美元之間。該指南包括反映全球經濟不確定性的逆風、汽車供需再平衡等行業範圍內更高的客戶激勵、較低的過往服務養老金收入、客戶服務和連接服務等增長的交換和投資；在供應鏈改善的推動下順風，我們在美國和歐洲的 SAARs 增加了約 1500 萬美元和 1300 萬美元，分別推出了我們全新的 Super Duty 和更低的銷售成本，包括材料和商品.

Turning to the segments. Ford Blue to deliver full year EBIT of about $7 billion. Cost improvements and higher industry volumes will likely be offset partially by pricing headwinds as inventory stocks continue to normalize and industry incentives rise through the year, along with adverse exchange. Ford Model e to report an EBIT loss of around $3 billion, largely reflecting disciplined investment in new products and capacity. We also anticipate Ford Pro's EBIT to nearly double to around $6 billion compared to our 2022 results. The gain is driven by improved pricing and volume, including the benefits from the launch of our all-new Super Duty. And EBT for Ford Credit is anticipated to be around $1.3 billion.

轉向細分市場。 Ford Blue 全年息稅前利潤約為 70 億美元。成本改善和行業銷量增加可能會被價格逆風部分抵消，因為庫存繼續正常化，行業激勵措施全年增加，以及不利的匯率。福特 Model e 報告息稅前利潤損失約 30 億美元，主要反映了對新產品和產能的嚴格投資。與我們 2022 年的業績相比，我們還預計福特 Pro 的息稅前利潤將增長近一倍，達到約 60 億美元。收益是由價格和銷量的提高推動的，包括推出我們全新的 Super Duty 帶來的好處。福特信貸的 EBT 預計約為 13 億美元。

Additionally, I hope that all of you are blocking time for our next capital markets event on May 21 and 22 here in Dearborn. This will be an important couple of days as we update you on the Ford+ strategy, take a deep dive into financial targets and KPIs for each of our customer-centered business segments and talk about our capabilities and expectations for software and services. By the time we're done, I believe you will even be better equipped to value the expected contributions of each of the segments to Ford's overall growth and return.

此外，我希望大家能抽出時間參加我們將於 5 月 21 日至 22 日在迪爾伯恩舉行的下一次資本市場活動。這將是重要的幾天，因為我們將向您介紹 Ford+ 戰略，深入探討我們每個以客戶為中心的業務部門的財務目標和 KPI，並討論我們對軟件和服務的能力和期望。到我們完成時，我相信你會更好地評估每個部門對福特整體增長和回報的預期貢獻。

So that wraps up our prepared remarks. We'll use the balance of the time to address what's on your minds. Thank you. Operator, please open the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們將利用剩下的時間來解決您的想法。謝謝。接線員，請打開問題線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

So Jim, you've compared the current environment for EVs to the year 1913, saying that no one should really be surprised that Tesla is cutting price so much. And then I think you asked the question, maybe rhetorically, who's going to blink on growth? So if I put your own question to you, Jim, will Ford blink on growth?

吉姆，你將當前的電動汽車環境與 1913 年進行了比較，他說沒有人應該對特斯拉大幅降價感到驚訝。然後我想你問了這個問題，也許是在修辭上，誰會對增長眨眼？所以，如果我向你提出你自己的問題，吉姆，福特會不會對增長眨眼？

Thanks, Adam. It depends -- well, first of all, our first 3 EVs are all very different in terms of pricing. I think the Lightning's price is up $11,000 since we launched, and E-Transit is up a lot. So -- and of course, we're increasing production to get that scale benefit.

謝謝，亞當。這取決於 - 首先，我們的前 3 款電動汽車在定價方面都非常不同。我認為 Lightning 的價格自我們推出以來上漲了 11,000 美元，而 E-Transit 的價格上漲了很多。所以——當然，我們正在增加產量以獲得規模效益。

So the most important thing we've learned 3 or 4 years ago is be careful where you compete, and we have selected where we compete extremely carefully. We want to go after segments where we have a great reputation, but there's a lot of conquest customers. And we want to innovate beyond just the powertrain, like Pro Power Onboard, and as well software. We now know the 3 shippable software stacks: safety and security, productivity for Pro, and of course, partial autonomy. All those are really great hedges against the inevitable overcapacity in certain segments.

因此，我們在 3 或 4 年前學到的最重要的事情就是要小心競爭，我們已經非常謹慎地選擇了我們競爭的地方。我們想追求我們享有盛譽但有很多征服客戶的細分市場。我們想要創新的不僅僅是動力總成，比如 Pro Power Onboard，還有軟件。我們現在知道了 3 個可交付的軟件堆棧：安全和保障、Pro 的生產力，當然還有部分自治。所有這些都是對某些領域不可避免的產能過剩的有效對沖。

We could see the overcapacity in the 2-row electric utility segment like years ago, Adam. Literally, like before we had finished the Mach-E development. We knew this was coming. That's why we got our team together. We brought down the cost of the bill of material by $5,000 without waiting for a minor change. We're not doing things like we normally do, and we continue to get the data off the vehicle to make the software better and better so the customers' vehicles get better every day.

亞當，我們可以像幾年前一樣看到 2 排電力公用事業部門的產能過剩。從字面上看，就像我們完成 Mach-E 開發之前一樣。我們知道這即將到來。這就是我們組建團隊的原因。我們不等微小的變化就將物料清單的成本降低了 5,000 美元。我們不像往常那樣做事，我們繼續從車輛中獲取數據，使軟件越來越好，這樣客戶的車輛每天都會變得更好。

So I would say the message from me as the CEO is that we are not going to price just to gain market share. We will always balance a healthy profit road map. In the first generation of products, it's pretty challenging because we didn't know what we didn't know 4 years ago when we designed them. But now we're 2 years into designing the second cycle. And in Capital Markets Day, we will take you through why we believe that 8% margin is totally realistic despite all the pricing pressure that we will absolutely get because everyone wants to grow.

所以我想說，作為首席執行官，我要傳達的信息是，我們不會僅僅為了獲得市場份額而定價。我們將始終平衡健康的利潤路線圖。在第一代產品中，這非常具有挑戰性，因為我們不知道 4 年前設計它們時我們不知道什麼。但現在我們已經花了 2 年的時間來設計第二個週期。在資本市場日，我們將帶您了解為什麼我們相信 8% 的利潤率是完全現實的，儘管我們絕對會承受所有定價壓力，因為每個人都希望增長。

So I would say we're quite different than maybe some of the pure EV players that are pricing just for growth. We will always balance that because we want a profitable EV business, and we're pulling every lever we can in the first-gen products. The second gen is where we can really make hay.

所以我想說，我們可能與一些僅為增長定價的純電動汽車玩家截然不同。我們將始終平衡這一點，因為我們想要一個有利可圖的電動汽車業務，並且我們正在盡我們所能開發第一代產品。第二代是我們真正可以做乾草的地方。

I appreciate that, Jim. And just as a quick follow-up because what you're saying is really landing well with me. It's resonating. But I just get a little nervous with the 2 million unit capacity target that you have hanging out there for the second half of '26, which just in my opinion is a crazy high number. Can I get you to admit that volume targets -- and I think you're saying this, and I don't want to preempt the Capital Markets Day, but can I get you to admit that volume targets as the success criteria alone, it really is the wrong thing to continue to perpetuate?

我很感激，吉姆。就像快速跟進一樣，因為你所說的真的很適合我。這是共鳴。但是我對你們在 26 年下半年提出的 200 萬單位產能目標感到有點緊張，在我看來這是一個瘋狂的高數字。我可以讓你承認交易量目標嗎——我想你是這麼說的，我不想搶占資本市場日的時間，但我可以讓你承認交易量目標單獨作為成功標準嗎？繼續延續真的是錯誤的事情嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Look, we all have to plan our business professionally, and scaling is important. Look what happened in the first quarter for Model e. We want that scaling benefit, but that is not success. In fact, I would say the more we study this -- our trip to China was a real epiphany for our leadership team.

是的，一點沒錯。看，我們都必須專業地規劃我們的業務，而規模化很重要。看看 Model e 在第一季度發生了什麼。我們想要這種擴展優勢，但這不是成功。事實上，我想說的是，我們研究得越多——我們的中國之行對我們的領導團隊來說是一次真正的頓悟。

I would say the more -- the thing that I look for as a CEO is not necessarily just the volume growth, it's actually how fast we use the data off the vehicle to make the customer's software experience better. That, to me, the quickness of that loop is the fitness for differentiating brand and profit in the future for this new digital product category we happen to call electric vehicles.

我想說的更多——我作為 CEO 所追求的不一定只是數量增長，實際上是我們使用車外數據的速度有多快，從而使客戶的軟件體驗更好。對我來說，這種循環的速度適合於未來我們碰巧稱之為電動汽車的新數字產品類別的品牌差異化和利潤。

To me, yes, volume is important, but that quickness of that loop, which we're already on our 10 million OTA. We've now gained 65% more miles traveled on BlueCruise in 3 months. We were only 42 million miles 3 months ago, we're now at 70 million. And the reason why that's growing so fast is because we continue to do OTAs to BlueCruise to make it better and better.

對我來說，是的，音量很重要，但那個循環的速度，我們已經在我們的 1000 萬 OTA 上了。現在，我們在 3 個月內乘坐 BlueCruise 的里程增加了 65%。 3 個月前我們只有 4200 萬英里，現在是 7000 萬英里。它增長如此之快的原因是因為我們繼續對 BlueCruise 進行 OTA 以使其變得越來越好。

On Ford Pro, those off-source subscriptions are growing fast. So to me, of all the metrics I look for as a proof point for our success in this new digital product category we call EVs, I think that's the one, Adam, I look for the close -- the best. And we will always balance profit with scaling.

在 Ford Pro 上，這些非源訂閱正在快速增長。所以對我來說，在我尋找的所有指標中，作為我們在我們稱之為電動汽車的這個新數字產品類別中取得成功的證據，我認為這就是亞當，我尋找的是最接近的——最好的。我們將始終平衡利潤與規模。

The next question is from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Rod Lache 和 Wolfe Research。

I'd actually like to follow up on Adam's question. I'm just looking at the $900 million increase in structural costs in the quarter, and I know that the investments you're making are aimed at driving growth. But in the past, when the industry has experienced higher structural costs, it put a lot of pressure on everybody to hit volume targets, which ultimately wasn't good for pricing. And I know you said, Jim, that you're planning to target segments where you've got strong pricing power and you're confident in conquesting customers. But can you just talk a little bit about whether you agree with that assertion that there's going to be pressure even on Ford, just given the magnitude of the structural cost increase that you're taking on? And what kind of flexibility do you have to make the targets if volume or pricing assumptions come in a bit short?

實際上，我想跟進 Adam 的問題。我只是在看本季度結構性成本增加 9 億美元，我知道您正在進行的投資旨在推動增長。但在過去，當該行業經歷了更高的結構性成本時，它給每個人施加了很大的壓力以達到銷量目標，這最終不利於定價。我知道你說過，吉姆，你計劃瞄准你擁有強大定價能力並且有信心征服客戶的細分市場。但是你能不能談談你是否同意這樣的說法，即考慮到你正在承擔的結構性成本增加的幅度，即使福特也會面臨壓力？如果數量或定價假設有點短，你有什麼樣的靈活性來製定目標？

Yes, Adam, let me -- sorry, you're following up on Adam's question. So let me, Rod, start off on the cost there. Yes, you're right. We did see our structural costs go up in the quarter on a year-over-year basis as we continue to invest, as Jim said, in our EVs, in our digital architecture and in our software.

是的，亞當，讓我——抱歉，你在跟進亞當的問題。所以讓我，Rod，從那裡的成本開始。你是對的。正如吉姆所說，我們確實看到我們的結構成本在本季度同比上升，因為我們繼續投資於我們的電動汽車、我們的數字架構和我們的軟件。

I think, for us, a key part of that is bringing those structural costs down in Blue over time and then driving efficiencies in our overall cost structure and contribution costs, some material costs, in warranty, in freight, et cetera. So that's where we need to see the turn on our cost structure in those areas as well and then cost structure coming out of Blue as we continue to invest in e and Pro.

我認為，對我們來說，其中一個關鍵部分是隨著時間的推移降低 Blue 的這些結構成本，然後提高我們整體成本結構和貢獻成本、一些材料成本、保修、運費等方面的效率。因此，這就是我們需要在這些領域看到成本結構轉變的地方，然後隨著我們繼續投資於 e 和 Pro，成本結構會從 Blue 中脫穎而出。

Now, of course, we have to do that at an efficient level so that it doesn't put that much pressure on the business, but Jim can talk about this more. But as we're investing in the growth of EVs, we're not doing it where we're proliferating. We're looking to be very focused on the segments we're going into, be very disciplined on the complexity in the number of top hats and models that we have, have the right footprint, the industrial plants needed to have the right efficiency levels. And we'll talk more about that at Capital Markets Day. But we're very, very thoughtful of the fact that, as that investment goes in, it needs to be very efficient.

現在，當然，我們必須在高效的水平上做到這一點，這樣它就不會給業務帶來太大壓力，但吉姆可以談論更多。但是，當我們投資於電動汽車的增長時，我們並沒有在我們正在擴散的地方這樣做。我們希望非常專注於我們要進入的細分市場，對我們擁有的禮帽和模型數量的複雜性非常有紀律，擁有正確的足跡，工廠需要具有正確的效率水平.我們將在資本市場日討論更多。但我們非常非常考慮到這樣一個事實，即隨著投資的進行，它需要非常高效。

Okay. And just maybe secondly, just switching gears to -- your variable costs like material freight and commodities were up $1.3 billion in the quarter. Are you still expecting $1 billion of savings in variable costs and $1 billion to $1.5 billion in commodities? And if that's the case, you also have the super volume ramping later this year. I just would be curious about whether you can give us a little bit more color on the first half to second half assumption since your full year guidance implies some pretty meaningful decline in the year versus the level we're seeing right now.

好的。也許其次，只是換檔——你的可變成本，如材料運費和商品，在本季度增加了 13 億美元。您是否仍期望在可變成本上節省 10 億美元，在商品上節省 10 億至 15 億美元？如果是這樣的話，今年晚些時候你也會有超級銷量。我只是想知道你是否可以在上半年到下半年的假設上給我們更多的顏色，因為你的全年指導意味著與我們現在看到的水平相比，今年有一些相當有意義的下降。

Yes. So when you look at it from a cost standpoint, let's just unpack what happened last year. When you look at the cost increases in 2022, only about 15% of that happened in the first quarter. So on a year-over-year basis, coming out of last year, this was a tough read. If you look at it sequentially, when you look at our costs on a sequential basis, our costs were down in the quarter. And they were down significantly in Blue. They were up a little bit in e, and they were about flat in Pro. So yes, we have got to gain traction on the cost reductions, for sure, as we go through the second half of the year, and you'll start to see that come through in the second half.

是的。所以當你從成本的角度來看它時，讓我們來分析一下去年發生的事情。當您查看 2022 年的成本增長時，只有大約 15% 發生在第一季度。因此，與去年同期相比，這是一個艱難的閱讀。如果您按順序查看，當您按順序查看我們的成本時，我們的成本在本季度有所下降。他們在藍色方面的表現明顯下降。他們在 e 中略有上升，而在 Pro 中基本持平。所以是的，我們必須在降低成本方面獲得牽引力，當然，隨著我們進入今年下半年，你將在下半年開始看到這一點。

Overall, when you look at it from a cost standpoint, we expect our total cost to come down and cost of goods sold to come down about $2 billion versus the $2.5 billion, and that's primarily reflecting the fact that commodities aren't coming down as quickly as we thought. So that's where we see costs unfolding through the second half of the year.

總的來說，當你從成本的角度來看時，我們預計我們的總成本會下降，銷售成本會下降約 20 億美元，而不是 25 億美元，這主要反映了這樣一個事實，即大宗商品並沒有像現在這樣下降。正如我們所想的那樣快。這就是我們看到成本在今年下半年展開的地方。

The next question is from John Murphy with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰墨菲。

Just a first question on fleet because that seems to be leading the volume recovery here early in 2023. Just curious how much of a tailwind that was for you and where that shows up in the numbers, whether it's all in Pro or do we actually see something actually showing up on the Blue and in e side? And how much do you expect that to continue to sort of be a tailwind as you go through the course of this year and maybe even for the next year or 2?

這只是關於機隊的第一個問題，因為這似乎在 2023 年初引領了這裡的銷量復甦。只是好奇這對你有多大的推動作用，以及它在數字中出現的位置，無論是全部在 Pro 中還是我們真的看到了有什麼東西真的出現在藍色和 e 側？在你今年乃至明年或兩年的過程中，你預計這會繼續成為一種順風嗎？

Yes. The fleet business is largely sitting in Pro, John. We see that continuing through the year. We see Pro -- strength in Pro as we go through the year. There's considerable pent-up demand. We now have the new Super Duty. We'll be launching the Transit in the second half of the year, and we expect that to continue. So that's where we see quite a bit of opportunity as we go through the year, as we expect profits in Pro to double this year versus last year.

是的。車隊業務主要集中在 Pro，John。我們看到這一年一直在持續。在這一年中，我們看到了 Pro——Pro 的實力。有相當大的被壓抑的需求。我們現在有了新的 Super Duty。我們將在今年下半年推出 Transit，我們預計這會繼續下去。因此，我們在這一年中看到了相當多的機會，因為我們預計今年 Pro 的利潤將比去年翻一番。

On Blue, what we saw in the first quarter for Blue was about flat pricing. It was up 1/10, a strong mix, really strong mix and some volume increases in Blue in the first quarter. And that strong mix was on F-Series. And that's because last year, we had the Trico issue, which kept our series mix down, plus we were launching Escape this year in the first quarter. So when you look at it, that's where we see things unfolding. When we go through the rest of the year on Blue, we expect that mix to come off. That's not going to repeat itself as we run through the rest of the year.

在 Blue 上，我們在第一季度看到的 Blue 是關於統一定價的。它上漲了 1/10，這是一個強大的組合，非常強大的組合，第一季度 Blue 的銷量有所增加。這種強大的組合出現在 F 系列上。那是因為去年我們遇到了 Trico 問題，這讓我們的系列混音保持低迷，而且我們今年第一季度推出了 Escape。因此，當您查看它時，這就是我們看到事情發展的地方。當我們在 Blue 度過今年餘下的時間時，我們預計這種混合會消失。在今年餘下的時間裡，這種情況不會重演。

On Pro, I just want to highlight a few things, John. There was a huge backorder of vehicle pent-up demand for small business in the U.S. and Europe that is still not even close to being satisfied. So yes, a lot of the bigger fleets, u-hauls, you can imagine that they are the truck and van customers, we've done a good job getting them the product they want. They still want more, a lot more. And this is before we launch a new Super Duty and, of course, a new Transit in Europe. And so there's a lot of pent-up demand for large fleets.

關於 Pro，我只想強調幾件事，John。美國和歐洲的小企業有大量被壓抑的汽車積壓需求，但仍未得到滿足。所以是的，很多更大的車隊，u-hauls，你可以想像他們是卡車和貨車的客戶，我們在為他們提供他們想要的產品方面做得很好。他們仍然想要更多，更多。這是在我們推出新的 Super Duty，當然還有歐洲的新 Transit 之前。因此，對大型車隊有很多被壓抑的需求。

But most of the real profitable Pro business is small and medium-sized business, and they have been waiting literally 3 to 4 years for their Transit and Super Duties. So the pent-up demand we're seeing now is really those customers, and there's still a lot of pricing power and lots of pent-up orders for. And especially now that we have brand-new Super Duty and Transit in Europe, it's going to be even more intense to get those products. So good -- the larger fleets, we've done a good job getting them more product, but there's a ton of pent-up demand for Pro vehicles with those small and medium-sized business, which is the heart and soul of the TAM.

但大多數真正盈利的 Pro 企業都是中小型企業，他們實際上已經等了 3 到 4 年才能獲得 Transit 和 Super Duties。所以我們現在看到的被壓抑的需求確實是那些客戶，而且仍然有很多定價權和很多被壓抑的訂單。尤其是現在我們在歐洲擁有全新的 Super Duty 和 Transit，獲得這些產品的需求將更加強烈。太好了——更大的車隊，我們在為他們提供更多產品方面做得很好，但是那些中小型企業對 Pro 車輛有大量被壓抑的需求，這是 TAM 的核心和靈魂.

And Jim, if I could follow up just on the pricing discussion. There seems to be a change in the philosophy of the way that people are thinking about this, particularly that new, large competitor that is cutting price. And that you can cut price on the front end and not make a lot of money on the hardware, but you can make a whole lot of money on the software and services on the back end so you're not so worried about profit on the front end. You think you can make it up on the back end. As you think about your business evolving over time, do you think in 5 years' time plus that you're going to be sort of selling the vehicles hardware and making all the money on the back end? I mean how should we think about sort of the balance of how the money is earned on vehicles going forward?

吉姆，如果我能跟進定價討論的話。人們思考這個問題的方式似乎發生了變化，尤其是那個正在降價的新的大型競爭對手。而且你可以在前端降價而不是在硬件上賺很多錢，但是你可以在後端的軟件和服務上賺很多錢所以你不必擔心利潤前端。你認為你可以在後端彌補。當您考慮您的業務隨著時間的推移而發展時，您是否認為在 5 年後加上您將銷售車輛硬件並在後端賺取所有的錢？我的意思是我們應該如何考慮如何平衡未來車輛的收入？

Well, that business model, I mean outside of maybe Tesla, that business model is live and well at Ford right now in Pro. So when I answer your question, please understand that we are operating that kind of business, where aftersales and software is now large 30-plus percent attach rates. And I would say the answer is I am not giving any relief to my vehicle teams for software sales or any kind of margin advantage.

好吧，這種商業模式，我的意思是在特斯拉之外，這種商業模式現在在福特的 Pro 中已經存在並且很好。因此，當我回答你的問題時，請理解我們經營的是那種業務，售後和軟件現在的附加率高達 30% 以上。我會說答案是我不會讓我的車輛團隊因為軟件銷售或任何形式的利潤優勢而得到任何緩解。

They -- those products have to get to 8% on their own. And we see the software and, especially for Pro, the physical after sales. Those attach rates charging equipment that we're seeing 30-plus percent tax rates, that's plus business for us. That's an annuity we want to create, and we do not want to commoditize our products. That is not our strategy. Maybe someone else's, but not ours. And that's coming from a company that is already doing -- like we could do that now with Pro, but we are not going to do that. I hope that's clear.

他們——那些產品必須自己達到 8%。我們看到了軟件，尤其是 Pro，還有實體售後。我們看到 30% 以上的稅率對設備收費，這對我們來說是一筆不錯的生意。這是我們想要創造的年金，我們不想將我們的產品商品化。那不是我們的策略。也許是別人的，但不是我們的。這來自一家已經在做的公司——就像我們現在可以用 Pro 那樣做，但我們不會那樣做。我希望這很清楚。

The next question is from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

I read, Jim, that you recently said at a charity event in Detroit, we're going to have to rethink what the Ford brand means in a place like China. So where do you think you stand with regard to your China operations currently? I mean Lincoln seems like a bright spot. But what aspirations do you have for your operations in that market, either in terms of the portfolio or margins or returns? And what time frame would you like to achieve those aspirations?

吉姆，我讀到你最近在底特律的一次慈善活動上說，我們將不得不重新思考福特品牌在中國這樣的地方意味著什麼。那麼您認為您目前對中國業務的立場是什麼？我的意思是林肯似乎是一個亮點。但是，在投資組合、利潤率或回報方面，您對該市場的運營有何期望？您希望在什麼時間範圍內實現這些願望？

Well, thank you, and I guess that's the end of my charity work. But we -- Pro and Blue are profitable everywhere in the world, including China. But I'm glad you asked this question because we went to China to finalize our strategy as a leadership team. And I guess I would explain -- so our ICE business there is profitable. Lincoln is a success. But you have to look at China through the strategy lens, it's not a huge business for us. And we believe that not only it is the biggest EV market in the world, but customers digitally are ahead of the rest of the world, and so it's a really important market for us.

嗯，謝謝，我想我的慈善工作到此結束。但我們——Pro 和 Blue 在世界各地都盈利，包括中國。但我很高興你問這個問題，因為我們去中國是為了最終確定我們作為領導團隊的戰略。我想我會解釋——所以我們在那裡的 ICE 業務是有利可圖的。林肯是成功的。但你必須通過戰略鏡頭來看待中國，這對我們來說並不是一個巨大的業務。我們相信，它不僅是世界上最大的電動汽車市場，而且數字客戶也領先於世界其他地區，因此它對我們來說是一個非常重要的市場。

And what we really see in our presence there is battery tech, digital experience for the customer and advanced product, both software and hardware integrated. Our strategy going forward in China will change. We're going to go to a much lower investment, leaner, more focused business in China with higher returns. And I'll give you an example. I don't want to lay out the whole strategy here. But since you asked the question, I think our partnership with JMC is a good example. We are going to double down on our commercial business, including EVs in China. We also believe that JMC can be an export hub for affordable EVs and ICE commercial vehicles using the Ford distribution network for our Pro business around the world.

我們真正看到的是電池技術、客戶的數字體驗和先進的產品，包括軟件和硬件集成。我們在中國的未來戰略將會改變。我們將在中國開展投資更低、更精簡、更專注、回報更高的業務。我會給你舉個例子。我不想在這裡列出整個策略。但既然你問了這個問題，我認為我們與 JMC 的合作就是一個很好的例子。我們將加倍發展我們的商業業務，包括在中國的電動汽車。我們還相信，江鈴汽車可以成為經濟實惠的電動汽車和內燃機商用車的出口中心，利用福特在全球的專業業務分銷網絡。

We have great Pro dealers in South America, in South Africa, in Australia, Mexico, places that we can export. And now we have a source of a fantastic affordable EVs and commercial ICE products with JMC. That's an example of how we're going to approach China from now on. We're not going to try to serve everyone. It will be a lower investment, leaner, much more focused business in China. And we're going to have a team on the ground that will be global resources for the company because of how important the market is in the EV.

我們在南美、南非、澳大利亞、墨西哥等我們可以出口的地方擁有優秀的專業經銷商。現在，我們可以通過 JMC 獲得價格實惠的電動汽車和商用內燃機產品。這是我們從現在開始如何與中國打交道的一個例子。我們不會試圖為所有人服務。在中國，這將是一項投資更低、更精簡、更專注的業務。由於市場在電動汽車中的重要性，我們將在當地建立一個團隊，這將成為公司的全球資源。

Okay. Great. And then just lastly, what is the latest you're seeing in terms of auto loan APR credit availability, maybe in light of some of the turmoil that we've seen in the banking sector in the U.S.? The SAAR has been very strong this year, in line or stronger than your expectation for $15 million total SAAR, particularly in light of the higher rates, maybe helped by the strong equity in used vehicles. But just curious if you're hearing anything maybe different at the margin from your dealers or customers or just how you're thinking about the auto finance market generally.

好的。偉大的。最後，您在汽車貸款 APR 信貸可用性方面看到的最新消息是什麼，也許是考慮到我們在美國銀行業看到的一些動盪？今年的 SAAR 非常強勁，符合或強於您對 1500 萬美元總 SAAR 的預期，特別是考慮到較高的利率，這可能得益於二手車的強勁資產。但只是想知道您是否從經銷商或客戶那裡聽到任何可能有差異的信息，或者您對汽車金融市場的總體看法。

Ryan, it's Marion. We have seen a number of banks pulling back from auto lending, which is kind of a hallmark of banks through difficult markets, and that's created a bit of a pricing opportunity for us as well as improvement in share, financing share for us. So I don't see it getting a lot better over the coming months for banks. But the credit availability is still there for customers and captives across the industry, are going to continue to support the OEMs.

瑞安，是瑪麗恩。我們已經看到許多銀行退出汽車貸款，這是銀行在艱難市場中的標誌，這為我們創造了一些定價機會，並為我們提高了份額和融資份額。因此，我認為未來幾個月銀行的情況不會好很多。但整個行業的客戶和俘虜仍然可以獲得信貸，將繼續支持原始設備製造商。

The next question is from James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

First question on price. So is pricing overall is still expected to be neutral for the year? It sounds as though Blue is guided to be negative for the full year as incentive spend picks up. But yes, could you just help unpack how we should be thinking about this year's price for Model e and Pro with the Super Duty strength still to come?

第一個關於價格的問題。那麼今年的整體定價是否仍有望保持中性？隨著激勵支出的增加，Blue 全年似乎被引導為負數。但是，是的，您能否幫助解開我們應該如何考慮今年 Model e 和 Pro 的價格，而 Super Duty 的實力仍然存在？

Yes. So overall, for us, our bridge from '22 to '23, we expect pricing for us to be neutral. We still expect that to be the case. We do expect the second half to see pricing pressures, especially on Blue as we see supply and demand normalize. Pro, we believe there will be pricing strength throughout the year. And on e, we see pricing being slightly down on a year-over-year basis as well. So overall, no change to what we had talked about at the Teach-In. We see pricing is neutral for Ford.

是的。所以總的來說，對於我們來說，我們從 22 年到 23 年的橋樑，我們希望我們的定價是中性的。我們仍然希望情況會如此。我們確實預計下半年會出現定價壓力，尤其是在我們看到供需正常化的藍色方面。親，我們相信全年都會有定價優勢。在 e 上，我們看到定價也同比略有下降。所以總的來說，我們在示教中討論的內容沒有變化。我們認為福特的定價是中性的。

Okay. Got it. And then just to confirm, you talked about 20% or minus 20% Model e margins for the second half. Is that right?

好的。知道了。然後只是為了確認，你談到下半年 20% 或負 20% 的 Model e 利潤率。是對的嗎？

Contribution margin, yes.

貢獻邊際，是的。

Contribution margin. Okay. All right. Appreciate it.

邊際貢獻。好的。好的。欣賞它。

Sorry. About -- no, no, no. Total margin, contribution margin positive, total margin would be -- EBIT margin would be minus 20%.

對不起。關於——不，不，不。總利潤率，邊際貢獻為正，總利潤率將是——息稅前利潤率將是負 20%。

Got it. Yes. So my follow-on to that because that's what I thought you'd sit. Can you bridge what the benefits are from a materials perspective, scaling in terms of the buckets maybe that you provided at the teach-in, what helps get to that minus 20% run rate for the second half?

知道了。是的。所以我的後續行動是因為那是我認為你會坐的。你能從材料的角度彌合好處嗎，根據你在教學中提供的桶來縮放，什麼有助於下半年達到負 20% 的運行率？

It's not different than what's in the Teach-In. I mean when you look at it, we're going to scale through the year. We start to grow volumes. We have the LFP battery coming in, and then we have the design reductions that Jim talked about, getting to about a $5,000 reduction on Mach-E. We have a significant reduction in play on Lightning as well. So it's the same buckets that we talked about at the Teach-In.

它與示教中的內容沒有什麼不同。我的意思是，當你看它時，我們將在這一年中擴大規模。我們開始增加數量。我們有 LFP 電池，然後我們有 Jim 談到的設計削減，在 Mach-E 上減少了大約 5,000 美元。我們在 Lightning 上的遊戲也顯著減少。所以這就是我們在教學中談到的相同的桶。

The next question is from Dan Levy with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

I just want to follow up on that last question on the contribution margin. And I know you didn't disclose contribution margin at the Teach-In. But just at the midpoint of if I look at what you disclosed in your deck, it's roughly negative $4,000 contribution margin right now, and you said a lot of this is on sort of material reduction. So I just wanted to understand how easily you can reduce content mid-cycle of a product. I know you said that there are some design changes that you can do. But typically, you see more material content modifications at the end of a product cycle. So just want to get a sense of your visibility on content modification to get that contribution margin to breakeven.

我只想跟進關於邊際貢獻的最後一個問題。我知道您沒有在 Teach-In 中披露邊際貢獻。但如果我看看你在甲板上披露的內容，就在中點，現在大約是負 4,000 美元的邊際收益，你說其中很多是在某種程度上減少了材料。所以我只是想了解減少產品週期中的內容有多容易。我知道您說過您可以進行一些設計更改。但通常情況下，您會在產品週期結束時看到更多的材料內容修改。因此，只想了解您對內容修改的可見性，以使邊際收益達到收支平衡。

So there's a couple of things you can do from a content standpoint to drive your cost down. One of them is we're using the digital connectivity of the vehicle to understand what features that customers find valuable. And if they're not using something that we have on the vehicle, we can design that out.

因此，從內容的角度來看，您可以採取一些措施來降低成本。其中之一是我們正在使用車輛的數字連接來了解客戶認為有價值的功能。如果他們不使用我們在車輛上擁有的東西，我們可以設計出來。

The other thing we're doing is, as Jim said, we didn't wait on Mach-E. So we started to put together what we thought of as bundled actions into minor programs as we work through Model e, and we're launching those as we go through the year this year and into next year to get us to that $5,000 reduction.

正如吉姆所說，我們正在做的另一件事是，我們沒有等待 Mach-E。因此，當我們通過 Model e 工作時，我們開始將我們認為的捆綁行動整合到小程序中，並且我們將在今年和明年推出這些小程序，以減少 5,000 美元。

As a first mover, we felt it was important to get to market quickly. We've readily admitted that the design and efficiency of our first-generation products isn't where it needs to be, and we're working on that -- those reductions now. And we're taking all the learnings from that and incorporating it into our second-generation products, and we'll talk more about that in a couple of weeks at Capital Markets Day.

作為先行者，我們認為快速進入市場很重要。我們已經欣然承認，我們第一代產品的設計和效率沒有達到需要的水平，我們正在努力解決這個問題——現在就減少這些。我們正在從中吸取所有經驗教訓，並將其納入我們的第二代產品中，我們將在幾週後的資本市場日上對此進行更多討論。

So yes, there's things you can do. You just need to be thoughtful about it as you go through the product. And where there's opportunities, you bundle them together, and you do a minor launch, you do a change and you go. And that's what we're doing on e, and we're using the connected data to take out features that the customers don't value.

所以是的，有些事情你可以做。您只需要在瀏覽產品時仔細考慮一下即可。在有機會的地方，你把它們捆綁在一起，然後你做了一個小的發布，你做了一個改變然後你就走了。這就是我們在 e 上所做的，我們正在使用連接的數據來刪除客戶不重視的功能。

Great. And then as my follow-up, I just want to touch on some of the earlier questions that were asked and this notion of how you're looking at volume. And I think the message clearly you're making is that you're not necessarily -- you're balancing that volume with profit. But historically, this has been a business that is dictated by volume. It is dictated by utilization. And if I read your comments correctly that you're focused on sort of unique segments and you want to sort of get out of the fray a little bit, that would probably tell me that if you're punching at 4 million units a year now, which is low versus actually where you've been historically, that if you're focused on these more premium segments or more unique segments that there could be a much lower volume going forward. So how should we think about your volume more broadly? I realize that's probably a better question for the CMD. But how are you thinking about sort of structurally what type of volume we should look at in the future?

偉大的。然後作為我的後續行動，我只想談談之前提出的一些問題，以及你如何看待交易量的概念。我認為你傳達的信息很清楚，你不一定——你在平衡銷量和利潤。但從歷史上看，這是一項由數量決定的業務。它是由利用率決定的。如果我正確地閱讀了您的評論，即您專注於某種獨特的細分市場，並且您想稍微擺脫困境，那可能會告訴我，如果您現在每年沖壓 400 萬台，這與您歷史上的實際情況相比較低，如果您專注於這些更優質的細分市場或更獨特的細分市場，那麼未來的銷量可能會低得多。那麼我們應該如何更廣泛地考慮您的數量？我意識到這對 CMD 來說可能是一個更好的問題。但是你如何從結構上考慮我們將來應該看什麼類型的捲？

Good question. So I want to make it really clear that our growth strategy for the company is very aggressive, and it focuses on conquest customers. So we plan to grow, and that capacity increase for e and Pro is mostly additive to the company's overall growth. And what gives us confidence in that is that we are targeting conquest vehicles and software to customer categories that we know really well. It's not lost on us that when we launched Lightning, almost all the full-size pickup truck EV customers were new to Ford and new to the segment. So what we learned in Lightning's case, a segment traditionally has been 13% of the industry for pretty much my whole career, can be much, much bigger when you add new product features like a frunk lockable storage for a full-size truck, zero emissions and the ability to power your house for 3 days. A lot of new customers bought a Lightning that never owned a pickup truck before. And we intend to do that with 3-row crossover and with a bunch of EV Pro vehicles, which we think will be a huge growth for us.

好問題。所以我想明確表示，我們公司的增長戰略非常積極，它專注於征服客戶。所以我們計劃增長，而 e 和 Pro 的產能增加主要是對公司整體增長的補充。讓我們對此充滿信心的是，我們正在將征服車輛和軟件定位到我們非常了解的客戶類別。我們並沒有忘記，當我們推出 Lightning 時，幾乎所有全尺寸皮卡車 EV 客戶都是福特的新客戶，也是該細分市場的新客戶。因此，我們從 Lightning 的案例中了解到，在我的整個職業生涯中，這個細分市場傳統上佔行業的 13%，當您添加新產品功能（例如用於全尺寸卡車的 frunk 可鎖定存儲空間、零排放量和為您的房屋供電 3 天的能力。許多新客戶購買了一輛以前從未擁有過皮卡車的 Lightning。我們打算通過 3 排交叉和一堆 EV Pro 車輛來做到這一點，我們認為這對我們來說將是一個巨大的增長。

So you should expect that a lot of that capacity we're putting in is for growth for the company, but we are not going to grow at any cost. We're going to manage that incremental new growth for profitability and growth together, and we've put a lot of thinking into our product strategy. One of the most important aspects of our product strategy is not to have too much top hat engineering. We want to have a lot of scale per top hat. And again, we'll go into this at Capital Markets Day, as you said, because I think it's best answered there with real examples where you can really see our strategy coming to life.

所以你應該預料到我們投入的大量產能是為了公司的增長，但我們不會不惜任何代價來增長。我們將共同管理盈利和增長的增量新增長，我們已經在產品戰略中投入了大量思考。我們的產品戰略最重要的方面之一是不要有太多的頂帽工程。我們希望每頂禮帽都有很大的比例。再一次，正如你所說，我們將在資本市場日討論這個問題，因為我認為最好用真實的例子來回答這個問題，在那裡你可以真正看到我們的戰略變為現實。

But we've learned a lot for Lightning and for Mach-E. Frankly, the number of new customers we're seeing is very encouraging for us because of our capacity increase. And we know that the second cycle product can be radically simpler and lower cost, aside from the scaling effect. And again, we'll lay this out in Capital Markets Day for you and for everyone else.

但是我們已經為 Lightning 和 Mach-E 學到了很多東西。坦率地說，由於我們的產能增加，我們看到的新客戶數量對我們來說非常鼓舞人心。我們知道，除了規模效應之外，第二個週期的產品可以從根本上更簡單、成本更低。再一次，我們將在資本市場日為您和其他所有人闡述這一點。

The next question is from Tom Narayan with RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Tom Narayan。

Just had 2 quick follow-ups. So for Blue, it sounds like the downshift kind of implied in the rest of the year is really coming more from mix than not price, as you're saying net neutral on price for the full year. Is that right?

剛剛進行了 2 次快速跟進。因此，對於 Blue，聽起來像是今年剩餘時間隱含的降檔實際上更多地來自混合而不是價格，正如你所說的全年價格淨中性。是對的嗎？

Yes. So mix -- we had very strong mix in Q1. We don't expect that to repeat as we go through the year, and we do expect on a full year basis that we will see some pressures on pricing in Blue on a full year basis as we go through the second half of the year.

是的。所以混合 - 我們在第一季度有非常強大的組合。我們預計這一年不會重演，我們確實預計在全年的基礎上，我們會在今年下半年看到全年對 Blue 定價的壓力。

Remember, what's really important is to understand that run rate of price as you come out of the back end of the year because you have the accrual impact for all of the units that are in stock and then you have to take the incentive levels from Q1 of 2024 and apply it to those units that are in stock. So you've got to think about that on a run rate business coming out of the end of the year. But overall, yes, it's -- for Blue, we definitely see that there'll be some pressure on pricing.

請記住，真正重要的是了解年末結束時的價格運行率，因為您對所有庫存單位都有應計影響，然後您必須從第一季度獲得激勵水平2024 年並將其應用於那些有庫存的單位。所以你必須考慮到年底出現的運行率業務。但總的來說，是的，對於 Blue，我們肯定會看到定價方面會有一些壓力。

Okay. And then another follow-up. So on this question of attach rates, you have a 30% attach rate on Pro, which is amazing. And just curious, as you think about that, is there an incentive perhaps to increase that attach rate perhaps by sacrificing on price? Presumably, those subscription revenues come in at higher margins. Or is the view, no, we're not going to -- at the end of the day, we make these products and these subscription services are add-on to enhance the product. I mean how do you think about that trade-off?

好的。然後是另一個跟進。所以在附加率這個問題上，Pro 有 30% 的附加率，這是驚人的。只是好奇，當你想到這一點時，是否有可能通過犧牲價格來提高附加率？據推測，這些訂閱收入的利潤率更高。或者是觀點，不，我們不會 - 在一天結束時，我們製作這些產品並且這些訂閱服務是附加的以增強產品。我的意思是你如何看待這種權衡？

It's a great question. Right now, the order bank we see for Pro's business, the more we can invest in profitable high-growth products, the better. But you should think it's a very important question you're asking for Pro because I don't think everyone would realize that the margins on software and the margins on parts are actually pretty similar.

這是一個很好的問題。眼下，我們看到Pro業務的訂單銀行，我們越能投資於盈利的高增長產品越好。但是您應該認為這是您向 Pro 提出的一個非常重要的問題，因為我認為每個人都不會意識到軟件的利潤率和零件的利潤率實際上非常相似。

So in the end of the day, the customer wants us to have fantastic products for Pro, but they're largely regulated, kind of box or pickup truck or whatever. So really for the customer, the value is going to be the software, the attached rates and the experience they get with an integrated approach. Think about this future state, which we are executing to, 100% prediction of failure of components before they fail. Okay?

所以在一天結束時，客戶希望我們為 Pro 提供出色的產品，但它們在很大程度上受到監管，比如箱子或皮卡車或其他任何東西。因此，對於客戶而言，真正的價值在於軟件、附加費率以及他們通過集成方法獲得的體驗。想想我們正在執行的未來狀態，在組件失效之前 100% 預測組件失效。好的？

You sense for the vehicle to do that. It's integrated in software. The software gets better every day, so you can predict failure more precisely and for more components. The customer gets a vehicle that never really goes out of service. If you're a small-, medium-sized commercial Pro customer, which is most of the TAM in Europe and the U.S., those customers, they take one van down, that's 20% of the revenue. So they will pay because they can drive more business with a vehicle that's never off the road.

您會感覺到車輛會這樣做。它集成在軟件中。該軟件每天都在變得更好，因此您可以更準確地預測更多組件的故障。客戶得到一輛永遠不會真正停止使用的車輛。如果你是中小型商業 Pro 客戶，這是歐洲和美國的大部分 TAM，這些客戶，他們拿下一輛貨車，這是收入的 20%。所以他們會付錢，因為他們可以用永不偏離道路的車輛來推動更多業務。

So think about this not as a trade-off between the vehicle profit, the parts business and the software. Think about it from the customer standpoint as an integrated approach where everything is designed for each other, where you can't think of doing prognostics without a vehicle design to do that or the fulfillment of the parts business pre-picking the part before the customer even gets there so that they could do the service really quickly, so the vehicle is not off the road for very long if it does need service.

因此，不要將此視為車輛利潤、零部件業務和軟件之間的權衡。從客戶的角度將其視為一種集成方法，在這種方法中，一切都是為彼此設計的，如果沒有車輛設計，您就無法考慮進行預測，或者在客戶之前預先挑選零件的零件業務的實現甚至到達那裡，以便他們可以非常快速地進行服務，因此如果車輛確實需要服務，它不會離開道路很長時間。

So it's -- I don't really think we think of it from the customer standpoint as like trade from margin. We think of designing the whole system so that every piece of it adds value, and you can't kind of think of the physical product or the software independently of each other. Now it may turn out over time, let's say, on the low part of Pro, that the software in the parts business is more profitable. But from the customer standpoint, we're designing the Pro business where they're inseparable, like the prognostic example. I hope that makes sense to you.

所以它 - 我真的不認為我們從客戶的角度來看它就像保證金交易一樣。我們考慮設計整個系統，使它的每一部分都增加價值，你不能獨立地考慮物理產品或軟件。現在可能會隨著時間的推移而證明，比方說，在 Pro 的低端部分，零件業務中的軟件更有利可圖。但從客戶的角度來看，我們正在設計他們不可分割的 Pro 業務，例如預後示例。我希望這對你有意義。

Yes, it does. Thank you.

是的，它確實。謝謝。

And the last question today is from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

今天的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

So I think you announced a price cut on the Mach-E today. And to your point, Jim, I think this is a more competitive segment within all the various EV segments. Can you maybe comment on the demand environment for Lightning? There's -- I've seen some anecdotal evidence of some decent amount sitting on some dealers' lots. I read that you're planning to ship some to Norway, which it feels like the U.S. pickup market should have more demand than your ability to supply. So can you just maybe talk a little bit about where Lightning demand is, in general, and whether sort of like cost actions are needed in order to bring down the price?

所以我想你今天宣布了 Mach-E 的降價。就你的觀點而言，吉姆，我認為這是所有不同電動汽車細分市場中更具競爭力的細分市場。你能評論一下閃電網絡的需求環境嗎？有——我看到一些軼事證據表明一些經銷商的地段上有相當數量的資金。我讀到你們計劃將一些貨物運往挪威，感覺美國皮卡市場的需求應該超過你們的供應能力。那麼，您能否談談一般情況下閃電網絡的需求在哪裡，以及是否需要採取類似的成本行動來降低價格？

But there's only 1 or 2 in the market, so I can understand why maybe some people would look at it that way if they don't have a product in the market. But from our standpoint, the Lightning demand is outstanding. We've taken $11,000 worth of pricing on Lightning, $11,000. And yes, thank goodness that we are seeing now some dealer stock for the first time in like 2 years for Lightning. And we are really excited about our cost reductions and, of course, the software we're shipping to the vehicle like BlueCruise 1.2.

但是市場上只有 1 或 2 個，所以我可以理解為什麼有些人如果市場上沒有產品，他們會這樣看。但從我們的角度來看，閃電網絡的需求非常突出。我們已經對 Lightning 進行了價值 11,000 美元的定價，11,000 美元。是的，謝天謝地，我們現在看到一些經銷商在大約 2 年內第一次看到 Lightning 庫存。我們對我們的成本降低感到非常興奮，當然還有我們運送到車輛的軟件，如 BlueCruise 1.2。

But the demand for Lightning is really, really strong. I look at Bring a Trailer every week. Because 2 years ago, it was like, I don't know, the most popular new vehicle in Bring a Trailer was a Lightning with 4 miles on it that someone was flipping. And the prices have come down and they're basically at MSRP now. So we're selling it at full MSRP. The demand is higher. In fact, I would say that the pricing is higher than MSRP still. And we're totally sold out in Norway, like we are everywhere.

但對 Lightning 的需求真的非常非常強勁。我每週都會看 Bring a Trailer。因為 2 年前，我不知道，Bring a Trailer 中最受歡迎的新車是有人在翻轉的 4 英里的閃電。而且價格已經下降，現在基本上是廠商建議零售價。所以我們以完整的建議零售價出售它。要求更高。事實上，我會說定價仍然高於廠商建議零售價。我們在挪威完全售罄，就像我們無處不在一樣。

So this is a global segment, we believe. Ford is clearly the #1 pickup truck maker in the world, and we're not going to just keep our pickup trucks in the U.S. It's a global market. So we feel great about the demand or else we wouldn't be doubling production this year.

因此，我們相信這是一個全球細分市場。福特顯然是世界上排名第一的皮卡車製造商，我們不會只將我們的皮卡車留在美國。這是一個全球市場。所以我們對需求感到滿意，否則我們今年不會將產量翻一番。

And then just maybe one follow-up for John. So curious if you could just put a final point on the puts and takes for your unchanged 2023 guidance. I think you mentioned in terms of costs for materials and freight, maybe now a $2 billion benefit instead of $2.5 billion. Are there any other big pieces which are either more or less of a benefit or a headwind than you saw previously?

然後可能只是約翰的一個後續行動。很好奇您是否可以在 2023 年不變的指導意見中對看跌期權和期權給出最後一點。我想你提到的材料和運費成本，現在可能是 20 億美元的收益，而不是 25 億美元。與您之前看到的相比，是否還有其他大塊或多或少的好處或不利因素？

Yes, sure. So we had shared what we thought the bridge was earlier this year. And so, as I said, we think pricing overall for us will be about neutral for the year. We said that our COGS are primarily material and logistics. We had said that it would be about $2.5 billion. We think it's about $2 billion now. That's primarily due to commodities not coming down as quickly as we had thought.

是的，當然。所以我們在今年早些時候分享了我們對這座橋的看法。因此，正如我所說，我們認為我們今年的整體定價將保持中性。我們說過我們的 COGS 主要是材料和物流。我們曾說過，這將是大約 25 億美元。我們認為現在大約是 20 億美元。這主要是由於大宗商品沒有像我們想像的那樣迅速下降。

Volumes, we were up 9% in Q1. We expect to be about -- up about 6-ish percent for the full year overall. So I think you can look at that, and those are the 3 areas that have basically changed versus what we had bridged before. We see past service pension at about a $2 billion negative credit. We don't change there. We're about that [1.4], and we're going to continue to invest in growth. And then we saw exchange and other of about $1 billion. So that bridge largely remains the same, except we got a little bit of movement between some volume and some commodity costs.

銷量，我們在第一季度增長了 9%。我們預計全年總體增長約 6%。所以我認為你可以看一下，與我們之前橋接的內容相比，這 3 個領域基本上發生了變化。我們看到過去的服務養老金約為 20 億美元的負信貸。我們不在那裡改變。我們即將達到 [1.4]，我們將繼續投資於增長。然後我們看到了大約 10 億美元的交換和其他。所以這個橋樑在很大程度上保持不變，除了我們在一些交易量和一些商品成本之間有一點變動。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

福特汽車公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。