福特汽車 (F) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Jason, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

女士們先生們，美好的一天。我叫傑森，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，歡迎大家參加福特汽車公司 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係執行總監 Lynn Antipas Tyson。

Thank you, Jason, and welcome to Ford Motor Company's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me today are Jim Farley, our President and CEO; and John Lawler, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit.

謝謝杰森，歡迎來到福特汽車公司 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Farley；和我們的首席財務官 John Lawler。 Ford Credit 的首席執行官 Marion Harris 也加入了我們的問答環節。

Today's discussion includes some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck, along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content, at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論包括一些非 GAAP 參考資料。這些與我們收益平台附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則指標相一致。您可以在 shareholder.ford.com 上找到該演示文稿以及我們其他的收益材料和其他重要內容。

Today's discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 24. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis and product mix is volume-weighted.

今天的討論還包括有關我們預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素包含在第 24 頁。除非另有說明，否則所有比較均為同比。公司的息稅前利潤、每股收益和自由現金流是經過調整的，產品組合是按數量加權的。

I want to call out a few near-term key IR engagements. On February 15, Jim Farley and John Lawler will participate in a fireside chat in New York with Rod Lash at the Wolfe Global Auto, Auto Tech and Mobility Conference. On March 23, at the New York Stock Exchange, we will hold a teach in about our new Ford+ segment reporting. This event, featuring John Lawler and Cathy O'Callaghan, our Controller, will be webcast. And I'm also pleased to share that our next Capital Markets Day will be Monday, May 22, at our headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan. Please save the date. We'll have more information about this over the coming weeks.

我想提出一些近期的關鍵 IR 約定。 2 月 15 日，Jim Farley 和 John Lawler 將參加在紐約舉行的 Wolfe 全球汽車、汽車技術和移動會議上與 Rod Lash 的爐邊談話。 3 月 23 日，在紐約證券交易所，我們將舉辦一場關於我們新的 Ford+ 細分市場報告的講座。本次活動將由 John Lawler 和我們的財務總監 Cathy O'Callaghan 主持，將進行網絡直播。我也很高興地告訴大家，我們的下一個資本市場日將於 5 月 22 日星期一在我們位於密歇根州迪爾伯恩的總部舉行。請保存日期。在接下來的幾週內，我們將獲得有關此的更多信息。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.

現在我會把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Lynn, and hi, everyone. We appreciate you all joining us. I'll start by addressing the obvious.

謝謝，林恩，大家好。感謝大家加入我們。我將從解決顯而易見的問題開始。

Our fourth quarter and full year financial performance last year fell short of our potential. And while we generated record cash flow, we left about $2 billion of profit on the table due to cost and especially continued supply chain issues. These are the simple facts. And to say I'm frustrated is an understatement because the year could have been so much more for us at Ford.

我們去年第四季度和全年的財務業績沒有達到我們的潛力。雖然我們產生了創紀錄的現金流，但由於成本，尤其是持續的供應鏈問題，我們留下了大約 20 億美元的利潤。這些是簡單的事實。說我很沮喪是一種輕描淡寫的說法，因為這一年對我們福特來說可能意義非凡。

Now I know the question you must be asking, why Ford with that incredible product lineup, and all the restructuring overseas, why aren't you delivering higher profits and more competitive margins? And it's the right question. So let me share my perspective.

現在我知道您一定要問的問題了，為什麼福特擁有令人難以置信的產品陣容，並且在海外進行了所有重組，為什麼您不能提供更高的利潤和更具競爭力的利潤率？這是正確的問題。所以讓我分享一下我的觀點。

With Ford+ plan, we are executing a double transformation. While we're making progress, it's hard work. As with any transformation of this magnitude, certain parts are moving faster than I expected and other parts are taking longer.

通過福特+計劃，我們正在執行雙重轉型。雖然我們正在取得進展，但這是艱苦的工作。對於這種規模的任何轉變，某些部分的移動速度比我預期的要快，而其他部分則需要更長的時間。

Now the first part of our transformation is to completely overhaul our industrial system, product development, manufacturing and supply chain management to deliver better cost and quality. This is critical because it provides the foundation for everything else we do. It funds our future, that second transformation, which we're aggressively building today. Building new and incredible new growth businesses like Model e and, of course, Ford Pro are huge bet on commercial vehicles, which will be high-growth, high-margin, not just products but software and services business.

現在我們轉型的第一部分是徹底改革我們的工業體系、產品開發、製造和供應鏈管理，以提供更好的成本和質量。這很關鍵，因為它為我們所做的其他一切奠定了基礎。它為我們的未來提供資金，即我們今天正在積極建設的第二次轉型。建立新的和令人難以置信的新增長業務，如 Model e，當然還有福特 Pro，是對商用車的巨大賭注，這將是高增長、高利潤的，不僅是產品，還有軟件和服務業務。

Now the second transformation, the growth part, is going better than I imagined. At this point in our journey, I did not expect to be #2 in EV sales in the U.S. I didn't know that Lightning would be completely sold out. And I didn't predict that BlueCruise would be the best hands-free autonomy system in the market, or the Ford Pro software sales would be growing off the charts. And that doesn't even touch all the incredible next-generation EVs and software platforms that will soon be entering the market.

現在第二個轉型，增長部分，比我想像的要好。在我們旅程的這一點上，我沒想到會成為美國電動汽車銷量的第二名。我不知道 Lightning 會完全售罄。而且我沒有預料到 BlueCruise 會成為市場上最好的免提自主系統，或者 Ford Pro 軟件的銷量會飛速增長。這甚至還沒有涉及即將進入市場的所有令人難以置信的下一代電動汽車和軟件平台。

Bottom line, in a double transformation, we have to significantly improve our cost and our quality, but at the same time, grow to fulfill that huge promise in Ford+. And frankly, the first part of the transformation has not moved fast enough.

歸根結底，在雙重轉型中，我們必須顯著降低成本和質量，但與此同時，要實現福特+的巨大承諾。坦率地說，轉型的第一部分還不夠快。

Now this is what we should be known for. It's our legacy, and we'll show we can do it again. We have deeply entrenched issues in our industrial system that have proven tough to root out. Candidly, the strength of our products and revenue has masked this functionality for a long time. It's not an excuse, but it's our reality, and we're dealing with it urgently.

這就是我們應該知道的。這是我們的遺產，我們將證明我們可以再次做到。我們的工業系統存在根深蒂固的問題，事實證明這些問題很難根除。坦率地說，我們產品和收入的實力長期以來掩蓋了這一功能。這不是藉口，而是我們的現實，我們正在緊急處理它。

Over the past year, we have made sweeping leadership changes and brought in world-class talent to re-energize and rebuild a leading industrial organization. We've committed company-wide to implement a lean operating system that will scrub billions of dollars of waste out of our company.

在過去的一年裡，我們進行了全面的領導層變動，引進了世界一流的人才，以重振和重建領先的工業組織。我們已承諾在全公司範圍內實施精益運營系統，以消除我們公司數十億美元的浪費。

And we are shining the light on every inch of our legacy business with knowledge that we must do better every day. This has been humbling for both me and our team. That said, I've never been more convinced about our plan. I cannot wait to get into work every day because I'm so optimistic about our plan and what we are creating here at Ford.

我們正在用我們必須每天做得更好的知識照亮我們傳統業務的每一寸。這讓我和我們的團隊都感到羞愧。也就是說，我從未如此相信我們的計劃。我每天都迫不及待地開始工作，因為我對我們的計劃以及我們在福特這裡創造的東西非常樂觀。

Now I respect our competition, but I would not trade our places with anyone. Why? Because we have a real strategy to grow. We have incredible products, both on the road and the ones you haven't seen in the pipeline. And I believe we now have a world-class leadership team, made up of new and existing talent ready to compete and win. These strengths will shine through.

現在我尊重我們的競爭，但我不會與任何人交換我們的位置。為什麼？因為我們有一個真正的增長戰略。我們擁有令人難以置信的產品，無論是在路上還是您在管道中從未見過的產品。我相信我們現在擁有一支世界級的領導團隊，由準備競爭和取勝的新老人才組成。這些優勢將大放異彩。

Ultimately, the proof will be in our results. That's exactly how it should be. We appreciate those who place their faith in Ford, and we are committed to creating value for all of our stakeholders.

最終，證據將出現在我們的結果中。這正是它應該如何。我們感謝那些信任福特的人，我們致力於為所有利益相關者創造價值。

So with that, let me quickly cover some areas of focus. First, we remain committed to disciplined capital allocation. And you saw this in the actions we took in Brazil and India and most recently in Argo. And now South America and IMG are healthy and generating sustainable profits. This work is never done and will continue to be the focus for us going forward.

因此，讓我快速介紹一些重點領域。首先，我們仍然致力於有紀律的資本配置。你在我們在巴西和印度以及最近在阿爾戈採取的行動中看到了這一點。現在，南美和 IMG 都很健康，並產生了可持續的利潤。這項工作永遠不會完成，並將繼續成為我們前進的重點。

Our balance sheet liquidity remains strong, and our ability to generate free cash flow has really improved significantly. And this is allowing us to accelerate our investment in growth, of course, electrification, but also Pro and software while, importantly, also returning capital to our shareholders. And we now have created 3 distinct customer-facing business segments: Blue, e and Pro, which have given us greater clarity and insights into each of these businesses and how we can improve each of them uniquely.

我們的資產負債表流動性依然強勁，我們產生自由現金流的能力確實有了顯著提高。這使我們能夠加快對增長的投資，當然還有電氣化，還有 Pro 和軟件，同時重要的是，還可以將資本返還給我們的股東。我們現在已經創建了 3 個不同的面向客戶的業務部門：Blue、e 和 Pro，這讓我們對每一項業務以及我們如何能夠獨特地改進每一項業務有了更清晰的認識和洞察力。

So let me cover a couple of highlights. I'm going to start with Pro, my favorite, the not-so-secret weapon at Ford. Ford Pro embodies all of our growth levers, and it capitalizes on our commercial vehicle sales leadership and scale to build a world-class ecosystem that delivers great value to our customers and profitable growth for us at Ford. In North America, our vehicle share is almost twice that of our closest competitor. And in Europe, Ford has been the #1 vehicle brand -- commercial vehicle brand for 8 years in a row.

因此，讓我介紹幾個重點。我將從 Pro 開始，這是我最喜歡的，福特的不那麼秘密的武器。 Ford Pro 體現了我們所有的增長槓桿，它利用我們在商用車銷售方面的領先地位和規模來構建世界級的生態系統，為我們的客戶帶來巨大價值，並為我們福特帶來盈利增長。在北美，我們的車輛份額幾乎是我們最接近的競爭對手的兩倍。在歐洲，福特連續 8 年成為第一大汽車品牌——商用車品牌。

Let me bring this point home. Here in North America home market, Super Duty, our most important Pro vehicle, owns half the mining business. It owns half the emergency response business and half the utility business. And the requirements for all these customers are complex. They're not going to commoditize, and they require a partner who deeply understands these unique businesses and is dedicated to providing a mix of vehicles, but also services that can improve uptime and total cost of ownership. And we know these customers will pay for software that will enhance their productivity.

讓我把這一點帶回家。在北美本土市場，我們最重要的 Pro 車輛 Super Duty 擁有一半的採礦業務。它擁有一半的應急響應業務和一半的公用事業業務。所有這些客戶的要求都很複雜。他們不會商品化，他們需要一個深入了解這些獨特業務並致力於提供混合車輛的合作夥伴，以及可以提高正常運行時間和總擁有成本的服務。我們知道這些客戶會為能夠提高他們生產力的軟件付費。

Now we're going to future-proof this business by leading the commercial electrification solutions as well, both at E-Transit and F-150 Lightning today. E-Transit is already America's top-selling electric van, with 73% market share. 60% of all of our U.S. fleet managers plan to add an electric vehicle within the next 2 years to their fleet. And that's even before the $7,500 IRA tax credit that was announced and applies irregardless of the location of raw materials of batteries.

現在，我們將通過在 E-Transit 和 F-150 Lightning 上引領商業電氣化解決方案，使這項業務面向未來。 E-Transit 已經是美國最暢銷的電動貨車，擁有 73% 的市場份額。我們所有美國車隊經理中有 60% 計劃在未來 2 年內為他們的車隊增加電動汽車。這甚至在宣布和適用的 7,500 美元 IRA 稅收抵免之前，無論電池原材料的位置如何。

This year, Pro really gets going. We introduced our most important vehicle gets refreshed, the new Super Duty Pickup. And in Europe, the Super Duty equivalent, we have an all-new 1-Tonne Transit. And Ford Pro's high-margin software business will continue to grow, especially software for fleet management, telematics and charging. Last year, these subscriptions for software grew over 70%, reflecting new software offerings, better platform for our software and contracts and growth in fleet charging attach rates, which are close to 50% now.

今年，Pro 真正開始了。我們推出了更新的最重要的車輛，即全新的 Super Duty Pickup。在歐洲，相當於 Super Duty，我們擁有全新的 1 噸 Transit。而 Ford Pro 的高利潤軟件業務將繼續增長，尤其是車隊管理、遠程信息處理和充電軟件。去年，這些軟件訂閱量增長了 70% 以上，反映了新的軟件產品、更好的軟件和合同平台以及車隊充電附加率的增長，現在接近 50%。

We're also increasing our sales of parts and services via a network of 1,000 mobile service vehicles on the road in North America and Europe and over 1,400 specialized commercial vehicle dealerships, many of which open 24/7. In fact, last year, mobile service repair orders increased 85% for us in Pro. And this improves the customer experience while importantly increasing the attach rates of our high-margin parts business.

我們還通過在北美和歐洲道路上行駛的 1,000 輛移動服務車輛以及 1,400 多家專業商用車經銷商（其中許多經銷商全天候營業）來增加零部件和服務的銷售。事實上，去年我們在 Pro 中的移動服務維修訂單增加了 85%。這改善了客戶體驗，同時重要地提高了我們高利潤零件業務的附加率。

Now moving to Blue. The team is focused and has delivered the freshest and most appealing product lineup in our industry. We know that, typically, the fresher the ICE portfolio, the greater the pricing power. So our decision to move away from sedans and commoditized utilities to vehicles like Bronco Sport and the Big Bronco, the Maverick, the Puma in Europe and hybrid powertrains has really paid off. Ford gained nearly 1 point of market share here in the U.S. last year, and we expect 2023 to be another big, strong year of share growth.

現在搬到藍色。該團隊專注並提供了我們行業中最新鮮、最具吸引力的產品系列。我們知道，通常情況下，ICE 投資組合越新鮮，定價權就越大。因此，我們從轎車和商品化公用事業轉向 Bronco Sport 和 Big Bronco、Maverick、歐洲的 Puma 和混合動力總成等車輛的決定確實得到了回報。福特去年在美國獲得了近 1 個百分點的市場份額，我們預計 2023 年將是又一個強勁的份額增長年。

Ford Blue is a growth business for the foreseeable future, with strong profits and robust free cash flow. And F-Series was America's best-selling truck for 46 consecutive year now, outselling its second-place competitor by more than 140,000 trucks. We're launching even new pickups like the new Ranger here in North America and in South America after we've already launched the new Ranger in Asia and Europe last year.

Ford Blue 在可預見的未來是一家成長型企業，利潤豐厚，自由現金流強勁。 F 系列卡車連續 46 年成為美國最暢銷的卡車，銷量超過其第二名的競爭對手超過 140,000 輛卡車。繼去年我們已經在亞洲和歐洲推出新款 Ranger 之後，我們還在北美和南美推出新款 Ranger 等新款皮卡。

In addition, Blue is going after billions of cost improvements from engineering to manufacturing to our bill of material. And in quality, we have work to do. Ford has been the #1 in recalls in the U.S. for the last 2 years. Clearly, that's not acceptable. We've overhauled our entire enterprise quality operating system. And we are already seeing improvements in initial quality for vehicles coming out of our plants here in North America.

此外，Blue 正在尋求從工程到製造再到我們的材料清單的數十億成本改進。在質量方面，我們還有工作要做。在過去的兩年裡，福特一直是美國召回事件的第一名。顯然，這是不可接受的。我們已經徹底檢查了整個企業質量操作系統。我們已經看到我們在北美工廠生產的車輛的初始質量有所提高。

And Model e. It's operating with a start-up intensity to build profitable EVs with differentiated industry-leading portfolios that customers are going to love. In the U.S., our EV sales growth is twice the rate of the EV segment and more than 60% of our Model e customers are new to Ford. The F-150 Lightning has been America's best-selling electric pickup since it launched. And the Mustang Mach-E remains a huge hit for our customers.

和模型 e。它以初創企業的強度運營，以打造具有客戶喜愛的差異化行業領先產品組合的有利可圖的電動汽車。在美國，我們的電動汽車銷量增長率是電動汽車細分市場增長率的兩倍，我們超過 60% 的 Model e 客戶是福特的新客戶。 F-150 Lightning 自推出以來一直是美國最暢銷的電動皮卡。野馬 Mach-E 對我們的客戶來說仍然是一個巨大的打擊。

We remain on track to reach our annualized EV production capacity of 50,000 units per month or 600,000 units globally by the end of this year. For reference, in the fourth quarter, our run rate of production was more like 12,000. So 50,000 is a big growth. And by the end of -- and we are on plan for that 2 million units of incremental capacity by the end of 2026.

我們仍有望在今年年底前達到每月 50,000 輛或全球 600,000 輛的電動汽車年產能。作為參考，在第四季度，我們的生產運行率更接近 12,000。所以50,000是一個很大的增長。到年底 - 我們計劃到 2026 年底增加 200 萬單位的產能。

Now to deliver this incredible growth, as we speak, throughout facilities in North America, we're adding shifts, expanding our facilities, building out new battery capacity and assembly capacity. Construction is in full swing in Tennessee and Kentucky on our BlueOval City and our 3 BlueOval SK battery plants. And in Europe, we're moving ahead with a new commercial vehicle battery facility in Turkey.

現在，為了實現這種令人難以置信的增長，正如我們所說，在整個北美的設施中，我們正在增加班次，擴大我們的設施，建立新的電池產能和組裝能力。我們的 BlueOval City 和我們的 3 個 BlueOval SK 電池廠正在田納西州和肯塔基州如火如荼地建設。在歐洲，我們正在土耳其推進一個新的商用車電池工廠。

Now critical to our plan is securing the necessary raw materials for these batteries to get to that 2 million unit rate, especially lithium and lithium hydroxide and nickel. We expect to have 100% of raw materials we need for the 2 million unit run rate secured by the end of this year. Now we are deep in the development of our second-generation EVs, including our next-generation electric full-size pickup, which, by the way, is awesome.

現在對我們的計劃至關重要的是確保這些電池達到 200 萬單位率所需的原材料，尤其是鋰、氫氧化鋰和鎳。我們預計到今年年底將獲得 200 萬單位運行率所需的 100% 原材料。現在我們正在深入開發我們的第二代電動汽車，包括我們的下一代電動全尺寸皮卡，順便說一句，它很棒。

These EVs will be fully software-updatable. That means a brand-new electric architecture, and they're going to be radically simplified. Imagine 3 body styles, each with volume potential of up to 1 million units and just a handful of orderable combinations. That's what we're doing at Ford for the second generation of products. And that means higher customer sat, better quality, lower bill of material and lower manufacturing cost.

這些 EV 將完全支持軟件更新。這意味著全新的電氣架構，而且它們將被徹底簡化。想像一下 3 種體型，每種都有高達 100 萬個單位的銷量潛力，並且只有少數幾個可訂購的組合。這就是我們在福特公司為第二代產品所做的。這意味著更高的客戶滿意度、更好的質量、更低的物料清單和更低的製造成本。

When we start reporting according to these new segments in the fourth quarter, you're going to have complete visibility in the Model e's margin trajectory and understand the key levers to achieve our Model e EBIT target of 8%. We're already making the customer-buying experience better with less friction. Now this is only going to accelerate when the new Model e dealer program takes effect in January next year. This program has been adopted by nearly 2/3 of our 3,000 U.S. dealers, and it's based on a radical redesign on our customer experience.

當我們在第四季度開始根據這些新細分市場進行報告時，您將完全了解 Model e 的利潤率軌跡，並了解實現我們 8% 的 Model e EBIT 目標的關鍵槓桿。我們已經在以更少的摩擦改善客戶的購買體驗。現在，當新的 Model e 經銷商計劃於明年 1 月生效時，這只會加速。該計劃已被我們 3,000 家美國經銷商中的近 2/3 採用，它基於對我們客戶體驗的徹底重新設計。

Next January, we'll be selling EVs in high volume with virtually no inventory, a simple e-commerce platform for our customers, non-negotiated price set by the local dealer and remote pickup and delivery for all customer experiences. We're also expanding BlueOval charging network at all of our dealers. And we'll have dealer staff trained not only on software but all the EVs.

明年 1 月，我們將在幾乎沒有庫存的情況下大批量銷售電動汽車，為我們的客戶提供一個簡單的電子商務平台，由當地經銷商設定非協商價格，並為所有客戶體驗提供遠程取貨和送貨服務。我們還在所有經銷商處擴展 BlueOval 充電網絡。我們不僅要對經銷商員工進行軟件方面的培訓，還要對所有電動汽車進行培訓。

Now I've said before, software and experiences will be the key differentiator for our industry. I mentioned earlier that BlueCruise, our driver-assist, hands-free technology, was just tested by Consumer Reports and judged the best hands-free autonomous system on the market. Let that sink in for a while. The best on the market. Now have you not experienced BlueCruise, I challenge you to go out and do your side-by-side comparison with our 2 major competitors.

我之前說過，軟件和體驗將成為我們行業的關鍵差異化因素。我之前提到過，我們的駕駛輔助免提技術 BlueCruise 剛剛通過了《消費者報告》的測試，並被評為市場上最好的免提自主系統。讓它沉入一段時間。市場上最好的。現在您還沒有體驗過 BlueCruise，我挑戰您走出去與我們的 2 個主要競爭對手進行並排比較。

And at the end of last year, our customers using BlueCruise have now traveled 42 million hands-free miles. So we're scaling incredibly rapidly. That's a fourfold increase in the millions of miles since the second quarter of last year. And we have incredible software talent, making this system better every day, including those 600 former Argo engineers who are now working full time at Ford on our autonomous systems.

到去年年底，我們使用 BlueCruise 的客戶現在已經免提旅行了 4200 萬英里。因此，我們正在以驚人的速度擴展。自去年第二季度以來，數百萬英里增加了四倍。我們擁有令人難以置信的軟件人才，讓這個系統每天都在變得更好，其中包括 600 名前 Argo 工程師，他們現在全職在福特公司開發我們的自主系統。

Now before I hand it over to John, just a few things. Ford is a different company today. We're all about building a stronger customer-focused business that generate sustainable profitable growth and returns above the cost of capital. While our 2022 results fell short of my expectations, I've never been more excited about our future because we have the right plan, the right structure to succeed, the best team on the field and real strategic clarity.

在我將它交給 John 之前，先說幾件事。福特今天是一家不同的公司。我們致力於建立一個更強大的以客戶為中心的業務，以產生可持續的盈利增長和高於資本成本的回報。雖然我們 2022 年的業績沒有達到我的預期，但我對我們的未來從未如此興奮，因為我們有正確的計劃、正確的成功結構、現場最好的團隊和真正清晰的戰略。

This year is about execution. It's time for us to deliver, and we will with relentless attention to our founding principles, drift and growth, and we are hitting the ground running. John?

今年是關於執行的。現在是我們實現目標的時候了，我們將不懈地關注我們的基本原則、漂移和成長，我們正在全力以赴。約翰？

Thanks, Jim. As Jim pointed out, our performance in 2022 was below our expectations, and our industrial platform is frankly not where we need it to be. The simple way I measure this is by looking at our cost of goods sold as a percent of revenue and then compare it to our competition. We've all done it, we're much higher.

謝謝，吉姆。正如吉姆指出的那樣，我們在 2022 年的表現低於我們的預期，坦率地說，我們的工業平台不在我們需要的位置。我衡量這一點的簡單方法是查看我們的銷售成本佔收入的百分比，然後將其與我們的競爭對手進行比較。我們都做到了，我們要高得多。

And this speaks to the significant operating deficits we have in product development, manufacturing and procurement. And this is no different from the tough capital allocation choices we made upon our geographic footprint and product portfolio. Choice is designed to yield higher quality growth and improved returns. And we are now applying that same level of discipline to our industrial platform with urgency.

這說明我們在產品開發、製造和採購方面存在嚴重的運營赤字。這與我們根據我們的地理足跡和產品組合做出的艱難的資本配置選擇沒有什麼不同。選擇旨在產生更高質量的增長和更高的回報。我們現在正緊急將同樣級別的紀律應用於我們的工業平台。

Now on the positive side, our product portfolio has never been stronger. Our new vehicles are a hit with our customers. Our iconic vehicles remain market leaders, and we continue to make strategic and capital allocation decisions to drive growth, strengthen our competitive position and produce returns above our cost of capital.

從積極的方面來看，我們的產品組合從未如此強大。我們的新車很受客戶歡迎。我們的標誌性車型仍然是市場領導者，我們將繼續制定戰略和資本分配決策以推動增長、加強我們的競爭地位並產生高於資本成本的回報。

So turning to the year. We generated a record $9.1 billion in free cash flow, well above our cash conversion target of 50% to 60%. And importantly, most of the free cash flow came from the Automotive business. And this reflects more disciplined capital allocation, including the restructuring of our operations outside of North America, which, until recently, was a significant source of cash burn.

所以轉向這一年。我們產生了創紀錄的 91 億美元自由現金流，遠高於我們 50% 至 60% 的現金轉換目標。重要的是，大部分自由現金流來自汽車業務。這反映了更嚴格的資本分配，包括重組我們在北美以外的業務，直到最近，這一直是燒錢的重要來源。

Now our balance sheet remains strong, and we ended the year with $32 billion of cash and $48 million of liquidity. This, coupled with the improvement in free cash flow, provides us with ample flexibility to both fund our growth and return capital to our shareholders. In fact, today, we declared our first quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share as well as a supplemental dividend of $0.65 per share, reflecting our strong free cash flow and the monetization of our Rivian stake, which is now nearly complete. Going forward, we intend to target distributions of 40% to 50% of free cash flow, consistent with our focus on total shareholder return.

現在我們的資產負債表依然強勁，年底我們擁有 320 億美元的現金和 4800 萬美元的流動資金。這一點，再加上自由現金流的改善，為我們提供了足夠的靈活性來為我們的增長提供資金並向股東返還資本。事實上，今天，我們宣布了每股 0.15 美元的第一季度定期股息以及每股 0.65 美元的補充股息，這反映了我們強勁的自由現金流和我們 Rivian 股份的貨幣化，該貨幣化現已接近完成。展望未來，我們的目標是分配 40% 至 50% 的自由現金流，這與我們對股東總回報的關註一致。

Now for the year, we delivered $10.4 billion in adjusted EBIT with a margin of 6.6%. And as Jim said, by better executing the things we control, we should have generated as much as $2 billion more in adjusted EBIT. For example, the instability of our supply chain and production plans caused us to not only deliver lower-than-planned volumes in the fourth quarter but also incur higher costs through premium freight and other supplier charges.

今年，我們實現了 104 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，利潤率為 6.6%。正如吉姆所說，通過更好地執行我們控制的事情，我們本應在調整後的息稅前利潤中多產生多達 20 億美元。例如，我們供應鍊和生產計劃的不穩定導致我們不僅在第四季度交付了低於計劃的數量，而且還通過額外的運費和其他供應商費用產生了更高的成本。

Now let me give you a quick overview of how our '22 segments performed, recognizing that beginning with our first quarter 2023 results will no longer have the Automotive segments with regional breakouts. Now North America delivered $9.2 billion of EBIT, an improvement of $1.8 billion, driven by higher net pricing and increased volume, which was partially offset by higher commodities and other inflation-related cost increases. EBIT margin was 8.4%. We continue to maintain a healthy order bank. And the team is busy preparing the launch of the all-new Super Duty and our seventh generation Mustang later this year, and both of those are incredible products.

現在讓我快速概述一下我們的 22 個細分市場的表現，認識到從我們 2023 年第一季度的結果開始，汽車細分市場將不再有區域突破。現在，北美實現了 92 億美元的息稅前利潤，增加了 18 億美元，這主要得益於更高的淨定價和銷量增加，這部分被商品價格上漲和其他與通脹相關的成本增加所抵消。息稅前利潤率為 8.4%。我們繼續保持健康的訂單銀行。該團隊正忙於準備在今年晚些時候推出全新的 Super Duty 和我們的第七代 Mustang，這兩款產品都是令人難以置信的產品。

In South America, we delivered a profit of over $400 million, and the region is now derisked and sustainably profitable. In Europe, we were slightly above breakeven for the year. But as our fourth quarter results showed clearly below our target. Given the changing macroeconomic environment and demand environment in Europe, we will make the changes necessary to deliver a sustainable business that consistently generates returns above our cost of capital.

在南美洲，我們實現了超過 4 億美元的利潤，該地區現在已擺脫風險並持續盈利。在歐洲，我們今年略高於收支平衡。但正如我們第四季度的業績顯示明顯低於我們的目標。鑑於歐洲不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境和需求環境，我們將做出必要的改變，以提供可持續發展的業務，持續產生高於我們資本成本的回報。

Our core strength in the region continues to be our leading commercial vehicle business. In China, we posted a loss of about $600 million, driven by increased investment in EVs. Lincoln continues to be our profit pillar in the region, but clearly, we have more work to do to ensure our business is growing, sustainable and delivering appropriate returns. Our International Markets Group earned more than $600 million, driven by the launch of the all-new Ranger and our decision to exit India. And similar to South America, the region is now primed for sustainable profitability.

我們在該地區的核心優勢仍然是我們領先的商用車業務。在中國，由於對電動汽車的投資增加，我們公佈了約 6 億美元的虧損。林肯仍然是我們在該地區的利潤支柱，但顯然，我們還有更多工作要做，以確保我們的業務增長、可持續並提供適當的回報。在全新 Ranger 的推出和我們退出印度的決定的推動下，我們的國際市場部賺取了超過 6 億美元的收入。與南美類似，該地區現在已準備好實現可持續盈利。

And finally, Ford Credit had another solid year, delivering EBT of $2.7 billion, which was down $2.1 billion from the prior year, reflecting lower credit loss and lease residual reserve releases, lower financing margin and lower lease return rates. Now given the continued uncertainties in the macro environment, I want to provide some context to how we're thinking about 2023.

最後，福特信貸又迎來了一個穩健的年度，EBT 為 27 億美元，比上年減少 21 億美元，反映出較低的信貸損失和租賃剩餘準備金釋放、較低的融資利潤率和較低的租賃回報率。現在，鑑於宏觀環境的持續不確定性，我想提供一些背景信息來說明我們對 2023 年的看法。

For the full year, we expect to earn $9 billion to $11 billion in adjusted EBIT, and that assumes a SAAR of 15 million units in the U.S. and 13 million units in Europe. We expect to generate adjusted free cash flow of about $6 billion and for capital expenditures to be between $8 billion to $9 billion. Our adjusted EBIT guidance includes various headwinds and tailwinds and that we believe could impact our business in the coming year.

對於全年，我們預計調整後的息稅前利潤將達到 90 億美元至 110 億美元，假設 SAAR 在美國為 1500 萬輛，在歐洲為 1300 萬輛。我們預計將產生約 60 億美元的調整後自由現金流，資本支出將在 80 億美元至 90 億美元之間。我們調整後的息稅前利潤指引包括各種逆風和順風，我們認為這可能會影響我們來年的業務。

And for example, when you think about the headwinds, they include an expected mild recession in the U.S. and a moderate recession in Europe; higher industry incentives as supply and demand come back into balance; Ford Credit EBT of about $1.3 billion, and that's about $1.4 billion lower than in 2022, reflecting unfavorable lease residual and credit losses and the nonreoccurrence of derivative gains.

例如，當你考慮不利因素時，它們包括美國預期的溫和衰退和歐洲的溫和衰退；隨著供需恢復平衡，更高的行業激勵措施；福特信貸 EBT 約為 13 億美元，比 2022 年低約 14 億美元，反映了不利的租賃剩餘和信貸損失以及衍生收益的不再發生。

We expect a continued strong dollar. We also expect about $2 billion lower past service pension income. And we're also going to continue investments in growth, including in customer experience, connected services and CapEx as we build out our growth plan. Now tailwinds include improvements in supply chain and industry volume, launch of our all-new Super Duty and then, of course, lower cost of goods sold, including efficiencies in materials, commodities, logistics and other parts of our industrial platform.

我們預計美元將繼續走強。我們還預計過去的服務養老金收入將減少約 20 億美元。我們還將在製定增長計劃時繼續投資於增長，包括客戶體驗、互聯服務和資本支出。現在的順風包括供應鍊和行業數量的改善，推出我們全新的 Super Duty，當然還有更低的銷售成本，包括材料、商品、物流和我們工業平台其他部分的效率。

Now before taking questions, let me briefly touch on our new financial reporting as well as plans for our next Capital Markets Day. On March 23, we'll hold a teach in at the New York Stock Exchange. And I'm really excited about this opportunity because it will be our chance to take you through how the new Ford+ segment will alter our financial reporting. The changes will include how revenue, cost products and assets are assigned to each segment.

在回答問題之前，讓我簡要介紹一下我們的新財務報告以及下一個資本市場日的計劃。 3 月 23 日，我們將在紐約證券交易所舉行講座。我對這個機會感到非常興奮，因為這將是我們向您介紹新福特+細分市場將如何改變我們財務報告的機會。這些變化將包括如何將收入、成本產品和資產分配給每個部門。

At the teach in, we'll also share our recast financials for both 2021 and 2022, and we hope many of you join us at the New York Stock Exchange in person. But we will also broadcast a webcast live and we'll be -- and we'll post a toolkit and other materials to orient you around all the materials and help you migrate your models. Now the teach in will not be a strategic update. That will come at our Capital Markets Day in Dearborn in May, when we'll update you on our Ford+ strategy. We'll do a deep dive into financial targets and KPIs for each of our new segments as well as for software and services.

在講座中，我們還將分享我們重鑄的 2021 年和 2022 年財務狀況，我們希望你們中的許多人親自參加紐約證券交易所。但我們也將現場直播網絡廣播，我們將發布一個工具包和其他材料，讓您了解所有材料並幫助您遷移模型。現在的教學不會是戰略更新。這將在我們於 5 月在迪爾伯恩舉行的資本市場日舉行，屆時我們將向您介紹我們的 Ford+ 戰略。我們將深入研究每個新細分市場以及軟件和服務的財務目標和 KPI。

Now with this new level of transparency, which will be tracked and validated in our earnings materials and SEC filings, we think investors will be better equipped to value how each of our customer-focused segments is contributing to Ford's overall growth and return profile.

現在有了這種新的透明度，我們將在我們的收益材料和 SEC 文件中對其進行跟踪和驗證，我們認為投資者將能夠更好地評估我們以客戶為中心的每個細分市場如何為福特的整體增長和回報做出貢獻。

And as Jim mentioned earlier, 2023 is a pivotal year for Ford. We have the plan, the talent and the product portfolio in place to take the company to an exciting new level, one that is both differentiated from our past performance and our competitors. And going forward, our new segmentation will provide unprecedented levels of transparency and insight into all aspects of our business, making it easier to hold Ford leadership accountable for delivering superior growth and value for all of our stakeholders.

正如吉姆之前提到的，2023 年對福特來說是關鍵的一年。我們制定了計劃、人才和產品組合，將公司提升到一個令人興奮的新水平，一個既有別於我們過去的表現，也有別於我們的競爭對手的水平。展望未來，我們的新細分將為我們業務的各個方面提供前所未有的透明度和洞察力，使福特領導層更容易為我們所有利益相關者實現卓越的增長和價值負責。

Now that wraps up the prepared remarks, and we'll use the balance of the time to address what's on your minds. So thank you. And operator, please open up the line for questions.

準備好的評論到此結束，我們將利用剩下的時間來解決您的想法。所以謝謝。接線員，請打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

I appreciate the humility and the self-criticism and the spirit of that on the cost and the execution shortfall. It's kind of refreshing to see that. But when you began the description about it and how frustrated you are, Jim, and how it's not good enough, I was getting all excited to hear some details and there's just not a lot here, okay? I'm just going to say, it's not a lot of details at all about what exactly the problem is and what you're doing about it and how much can it get better this year?

我欣賞謙遜和自我批評以及在成本和執行不足方面的精神。看到這一點讓人耳目一新。但是當你開始描述它以及你有多沮喪，吉姆，以及它是如何不夠好時，我很高興聽到一些細節，但這裡沒有太多，好嗎？我只想說，關於問題到底是什麼、你正在做什麼以及今年可以改善多少，根本沒有太多細節？

You can disagree if you want, that is my impression. I want to know what it is and because $2 billion on the table, frankly, that's 130 bps of margin. I mean that's going to go to the consumer anyway. So tell us that's just the beginning, and there's way more to go. Do we have to wait until May for that? Or is there anything else you can tell us to help model the company in the year ahead and what you're doing about it? Appreciate it.

如果你願意，你可以不同意，這是我的印象。我想知道它是什麼，因為坦率地說，桌面上有 20 億美元，這是 130 個基點的保證金。我的意思是，無論如何，這將歸於消費者。所以告訴我們這只是開始，還有更多的路要走。我們必須等到五月嗎？或者您還有什麼可以告訴我們的，以幫助我們在未來一年為公司建模，以及您正在做什麼？欣賞它。

Thanks, Adam. No, there's a lot more to go. And the industrial system at Ford is a huge opportunity for us. And we have spent the last several months really getting deep on where we need to go. So John, maybe you could share or feeling comfortable on sharing, but you're going to hear a drumbeat from Ford on this all during the year.

謝謝，亞當。不，還有很多事情要做。福特的工業系統對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。在過去的幾個月裡，我們真正深入了解了我們需要去的地方。所以約翰，也許你可以分享或對分享感到舒服，但你會在這一年中聽到福特在這方面的鼓聲。

Yes. So Adam, I think if you just step back and look at the 3 elements of the industrial platform, there's opportunities across each. If you look at our product development system and in our engineering, the level of productivity that we have, so think about $1 of input and what you get out for that $1 of input is probably about 25% to 30% inefficient. So we should be either getting more product through the pipeline or our cost should be significantly lower.

是的。所以亞當，我認為如果你只是退後一步，看看工業平台的 3 個元素，每個元素都有機會。如果你看看我們的產品開發系統和我們的工程，我們的生產力水平，想想 1 美元的投入，你從這 1 美元的投入中得到的結果可能是 25% 到 30% 的低效率。因此，我們應該要么通過管道獲得更多產品，要么我們的成本應該大大降低。

Now we have to be very smart about how we go about doing that because we've got incredible products in the pipeline, and there's a huge opportunity on that front, but we also have to balance the quality as well. And so when it comes to our engineering, I think you should think about it that way, and that's what we're going after.

現在我們必須非常聰明地考慮如何去做，因為我們正在開發令人難以置信的產品，並且在這方面有巨大的機會，但我們也必須平衡質量。所以當談到我們的工程時，我認為你應該這樣考慮，這就是我們追求的目標。

Our supply chain, there are issues across the supply chain. It cost us, as we talked about last year, at least $1 billion in premiums that we had to pay, increased freight, premiums on chips, premiums on disruption that we called our suppliers because our schedule stability was probably worst in class. And fixing that and the root cause it gets to that will drive incredible opportunities for us. And let's say that for 2023, it should be at least an incremental $1 billion, at least.

我們的供應鏈，整個供應鏈都存在問題。正如我們去年談到的那樣，這讓我們付出了至少 10 億美元的保費，我們不得不支付運費增加、芯片保費、我們打電話給供應商的中斷保費，因為我們的時間表穩定性可能是同類產品中最差的。解決這個問題及其根本原因將為我們帶來難以置信的機會。假設到 2023 年，至少應該增加 10 億美元。

And then when you look at our manufacturing system and you go through our plants, you look at the level of working capital we have in, you look at our production schedules, you look at the complexity and what it does for time that takes us to build a vehicle. And you understand just how inefficient that is. And then you bring that back through that -- complexity back through the supply chain. And you talked about the number of changeovers that our suppliers have to make to produce the complexity that we have and the time that it adds to production and the time that it adds the cost and the issues that it drives through.

然後，當你查看我們的製造系統並查看我們的工廠時，你會查看我們的營運資金水平，你會查看我們的生產計劃，你會查看複雜性以及它對時間的影響，這需要我們製造車輛。你明白那是多麼低效。然後你把它帶回來——複雜性通過供應鏈帶回來。你談到了我們的供應商必須進行多少次轉換才能生產出我們所擁有的複雜性，以及它增加生產的時間、它增加成本的時間以及它帶來的問題。

So those are just some of the tip of the iceberg or the things we're going after. And then if you go back and you look at it, as I said in my remarks, just you look at the math and you look at our cost of goods sold relative to our revenue and then compare that to traditional OEMs, let alone the new OEMs, and you see the size of the prize that we're going after.

所以這些只是冰山一角或我們正在追求的東西。然後，如果你回頭看看它，就像我在發言中所說的那樣，你只需看看數學，看看我們的銷售成本相對於我們的收入，然後將其與傳統 OEM 進行比較，更不用說新的了原始設備製造商，您會看到我們追求的獎品規模。

And what's changed, Adam, I think the answer is, is we just have to show you guys. I mean that's where we're at. We have to deliver it. But as Jim said, as we're taking this lean approach and getting into it, there's a very systematic way we're going at it now, and we are very focused. And we know that this is the number one thing that needs to get fixed in the first part of our transformation.

改變了什麼，亞當，我認為答案是，我們只需要向你們展示。我的意思是這就是我們所處的位置。我們必須交付它。但正如吉姆所說，當我們採用這種精益方法並開始實施時，我們現在採用一種非常系統的方法，而且我們非常專注。我們知道這是我們轉型的第一部分需要解決的頭號問題。

And Adam, I'd just like to add, as the CEO, there's a lot of choices. They're all very consequential when it comes to the approach to do this. The most important thing for me is sustainable. When you look at Ford, we have cut in the past, and it grows back. Or we have cut everywhere and not really focused on the industrial system.

亞當，我想補充一點，作為首席執行官，有很多選擇。當涉及到執行此操作的方法時，它們都非常重要。對我來說最重要的是可持續發展。當你看福特時，我們過去削減了它，它又長回來了。或者我們到處都在削減，並沒有真正專注於工業體系。

So for me, the approach that we're taking that's very different and very difficult is that it has to be daily work, gaps to competition, countermeasures, action plans for those countermeasures, constant evaluation of the effectiveness of those countermeasures, celebration of those KPIs and our status and daily management. It has to be a more fundamental approach than holding our breath or dealing with the output like people and getting into the real industrial system's efficiency. And that is a cultural change as a leader. It's a behavioral change. It is not just a program.

所以對我來說，我們正在採取的方法非常不同而且非常困難，它必須是日常工作，競爭差距，對策，針對這些對策的行動計劃，不斷評估這些對策的有效性，慶祝那些KPI 以及我們的狀態和日常管理。它必須是一種比屏住呼吸或像人一樣處理輸出並進入真實工業系統效率的更基本的方法。這是作為領導者的文化變革。這是一種行為改變。它不僅僅是一個程序。

Our next question comes from John Murphy from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰墨菲。

Just kind of wanted to follow up sort of on a similar vein, short term and long term. Just for short term, when we think about the '23 outlook and you look at the $1.4 billion decline in Ford Credit and take that as a reasonably given number, something in that direction, and then $2 billion of lower past service pension income, that's a $3.4 billion headwind. But sort of at the midpoint of the range, you're talking about EBIT being roughly flat. So that sort of indicates a very significant $3 billion-plus improvement in the core business, which is a lot to kind of believe when you're looking at sort of the headwinds and the issues that you just faced.

只是有點想以類似的方式跟進，短期和長期。就短期而言，當我們考慮 23 年的前景時，你會看到福特信貸 14 億美元的下降，並將其視為一個合理給定的數字，朝這個方向發展，然後是過去服務養老金收入減少 20 億美元，那是34 億美元的逆風。但在該範圍的中點，你說的息稅前利潤大致持平。因此，這表明核心業務取得了超過 30 億美元的非常顯著的改善，當你看到一些逆風和你剛剛面臨的問題時，你會相信這一點。

I'm just curious if you can comment on that and maybe kind of walk us to how we get comfortable like that we'll see a $3 billion-plus improvement in the core business this year. I mean -- and how do you get these supply chain issues fixed when some of that are a bit outside of your control and what we hear from suppliers is volatility and schedules. And it's not just specific to Ford, still pretty volatile.

我只是很好奇你是否可以對此發表評論，也許可以讓我們了解我們如何感到舒服，因為今年我們將看到核心業務超過 30 億美元的改善。我的意思是 - 當其中一些問題有點超出您的控制範圍並且我們從供應商那裡聽到的是波動性和時間表時，您如何解決這些供應鏈問題。而且它不僅僅是福特特有的，仍然非常不穩定。

Yes. Thanks, John. It's a great question. That's exactly it. The headwinds are $4.5 billion to $5 billion, as we pointed out. And we said we expect on the tailwinds, our pricing to be about neutral. The market forces, I think, are going to drive average transaction prices down, we think probably around 5%. And that will come some from the dealer margins, but also from higher incentives.

是的。謝謝，約翰。這是一個很好的問題。就是這樣。正如我們所指出的，不利因素為 45 億至 50 億美元。我們說我們預計在順風的情況下，我們的定價將保持中性。我認為，市場力量將推動平均交易價格下降，我們認為可能下降 5% 左右。這將部分來自經銷商利潤，但也來自更高的激勵措施。

And then you step back from it, and we do have the new Super Duty. And we expect that to be a positive, and we also have a very strong order bank on our commercial vehicles. So we're looking at pricing being about flattish. We said volumes, there's a slight opportunity as industry comes along. So the rest of it falls into cost reductions, and that's exactly right.

然後你退後一步，我們就有了新的 Super Duty。我們希望這是積極的，我們的商用車也有非常強大的訂單銀行。所以我們正在考慮定價是持平的。我們說數量，隨著行業的發展，機會很小。所以剩下的就是降低成本，這是完全正確的。

When you look at those cost reductions, you have to see what's happening relative to the material. And in material, there's 2 phases there. There's one, it's -- we do expect commodity prices to come off a bit, to improve a bit. But we also have significant opportunities in our material cost, and we have several initiatives going on to identify those efficiencies.

當您查看這些成本降低時，您必須了解與材料相關的情況。在材料方面，那裡有兩個階段。有一個，它是——我們確實預計商品價格會有所下降，有所改善。但我們在材料成本方面也有重大機會，並且我們正在採取多項舉措來確定這些效率。

We also have quite a bit of cost when you talk about schedule stability. I don't have the exact data from the competition, but when I look at our schedule stability, there are significant opportunities through changes that we can take to improve that schedule stability, which will flow straight through to lower surcharges from the supply base because they have to deal with that instability and there's cost that, that drives as well as the significant premiums we paid in freight for expedite, air freight, et cetera, to just try to keep plants going and keep our suppliers' plants going.

當您談論進度穩定性時，我們也有相當多的成本。我沒有來自比賽的確切數據，但當我查看我們的時間表穩定性時，我們可以通過改變來改善時間表穩定性，這將直接影響供應基地的附加費，因為他們必須應對這種不穩定性，並且有成本，這會驅動我們在貨運、空運等方面支付的高額保費，只是為了讓工廠繼續運轉，並讓我們供應商的工廠繼續運轉。

So those are 2 immediate actions that we can take based on the inefficiencies we saw in '22 that cost us the $2 billion. And then on top of that, we have to build through the core industrial platform just productivity and efficiencies to drive even more improvements. So that's how we're thinking about it, and that's how we're going about it.

因此，根據我們在 22 年看到的導致我們損失 20 億美元的低效率，這些是我們可以立即採取的 2 項行動。然後最重要的是，我們必須通過核心工業平台來構建生產力和效率，以推動更多改進。這就是我們的想法，這就是我們的處理方式。

Okay. That's actually incredibly helpful. And just on the long term, I mean, you mentioned, Jim, about scrubbing things foundationally and really getting to some costs that are excess. And I appreciate the 3 areas you've highlighted. But as we look around the world, I mean, Europe is -- had fits and starts of making us all kind of excited that it's going to work and then it doesn't from time to time. And China, you kind of been chasing competition there, and it hasn't really paid out for you.

好的。這實際上非常有幫助。從長遠來看，我的意思是，你提到過，吉姆，關於從根本上清理事物並真正獲得一些超額成本。我很欣賞你強調的 3 個方面。但當我們環顧世界時，我的意思是，歐洲 - 時不時地讓我們都對它會起作用感到興奮，但有時它卻不起作用。而中國，你在那裡一直在追逐競爭，但並沒有真正為你付出代價。

But there are 2 very important parts of Europe and China that are very strong for you. Commercial vehicle in Europe is incredibly strong. So could we just strip Europe back to pure commercial vehicle? And could China just strip back to pure Lincoln? Two places we know you're making money and cut out the other stuff so that you can actually fund the transition that you're talking about. I mean, just -- we kind of all dance around this stuff, and you've headed in this direction with the global redesign, but there's real opportunities here to be really profitable.

但是歐洲和中國有兩個非常重要的部分對你來說非常強大。歐洲的商用車非常強大。那麼我們可以將歐洲剝離回純商用車嗎？中國能不能脫回純粹的林肯？我們知道您在兩個地方賺錢並削減其他東西，這樣您就可以真正為您正在談論的過渡提供資金。我的意思是，只是 - 我們都圍繞著這些東西跳舞，你已經朝著這個方向進行了全球重新設計，但這裡有真正盈利的真正機會。

No, you hit on it. And I'm glad we're getting into some of the strategies. I mean, I would think of China business similar to what we've done in South America and IMG. Small but profitable, focused. We've been, in the past, in China kind of small but focused on everything. And Lincoln and our commercial with JMC is very profitable and an important business, but they have to make the EV transition.

不，你中招了。我很高興我們正在研究一些策略。我的意思是，我認為中國業務類似於我們在南美和 IMG 所做的。小而有利可圖，專注。過去，我們在中國有點小，但專注於一切。林肯和我們與 JMC 的商業廣告是非常有利可圖的，也是一項重要的業務，但他們必須進行電動汽車轉型。

And I don't think you can be globally successful in the EV business if you don't compete with the Chinese. I mean, they're going to come to Europe. They're already there. They're going to come to the U.S. BYD is a powerhouse, Geely, there's so many others. And so we believe China is very strategically important for us. But to win there, we have to make those businesses transition profitably to EV, but I would think of it as kind of small and focused, maybe even more than the past.

如果你不與中國人競爭，我認為你無法在全球範圍內在電動汽車行業取得成功。我的意思是，他們會來歐洲。他們已經在那裡了。他們要來美國，比亞迪是強者，吉利，還有很多。因此我們相信中國對我們來說具有非常重要的戰略意義。但要在那裡取勝，我們必須讓這些業務盈利地過渡到電動汽車，但我認為它是一種小而專注的方式，甚至可能比過去更加專注。

And Europe is definitely -- we have a great CV business, commercial vehicle business, that now is getting electrified. So we're like making that transition now. We have a new Ranger, the electric version of Transit, 1-Tonne Transit. And all of them, we have a new manufacturing site in Romania that's really scaling up now in commercial. So we have a really strong business.

歐洲肯定是——我們有一個偉大的 CV 業務，商用車業務，現在正在電氣化。所以我們現在就想進行這種轉變。我們有一個新的 Ranger，Transit 的電動版本，1 噸 Transit。所有這些，我們在羅馬尼亞有一個新的製造基地，現在真正在商業上擴大規模。所以我們有一個非常強大的業務。

And the decision really is how much do we need, how much -- how many engineers, how many people do we need in Europe and how big of a profile do we need in passenger cars? That's the decision. We've already electrified Cologne, and that's really the decision. It's not the right time to talk about where we're going to go, but we know exactly our strength in Europe, and we know what we need to do. So -- and you won't have to wait long to hear from us on these things.

真正的決定是我們需要多少，多少——我們在歐洲需要多少工程師，多少人，以及我們在乘用車領域需要多大的知名度？這就是決定。我們已經讓科隆電氣化，這確實是我們的決定。現在不是談論我們要去哪裡的合適時機，但我們清楚地知道我們在歐洲的實力，我們知道我們需要做什麼。所以 - 您不必等待很長時間就能收到我們關於這些事情的消息。

The next question comes from Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

I think, John, you said that, in response to Adam's question, that variable costs would come down by at least $1 billion. But at the same time, you're acknowledging that pricing could easily be more than $1 billion negative for $100 billion North American business with 5 points of average transaction price decline. Can you maybe give us a little bit more insight into that? And can you provide a few specific KPIs that would demonstrate progress on structural costs? They were up another $2 billion in 2022.

我想，約翰，你說過，在回答亞當的問題時，可變成本至少會下降 10 億美元。但與此同時，您承認，對於價值 1000 億美元的北美企業，平均交易價格下降 5 個百分點，定價很容易就會出現超過 10 億美元的負值。你能不能給我們更多的洞察力？您能否提供一些具體的 KPI 來證明在結構成本方面取得的進展？他們在 2022 年又增加了 20 億美元。

Yes. So on the pricing, we do see the broad market coming in at about -- transaction prices falling about 5%. Some of that's going to come out of the dealer margins, of course. It's not all going to come from us. But we also have upside, Rod, with some of the launch of the new vehicles. We won't see as much of a price compression there. So we see pricing net-net for us next year being about flattish. And so don't think about it as we're working through '23 as being a negative $1 billion.

是的。因此，在定價方面，我們確實看到大盤交易價格下跌約 5%。當然，其中一些將來自經銷商的利潤。這不會全部來自我們。但我們也有好處，羅德，隨著一些新車的推出。我們不會在那裡看到那麼多的價格壓縮。因此，我們認為明年我們的淨定價將持平。因此，當我們在 23 年工作時，不要將其視為負 10 億美元。

And then I would say that when it comes to the cost reductions, I think what we've got to start showing is, one, that we're getting leverage out of the business. If we're growing the business, that our cost of goods sold is growing at a much slower pace. And that as we're coming out with new vehicles, our cost per units are coming down, so our margins are improving.

然後我會說，在降低成本方面，我認為我們必須開始展示的是，第一，我們正在從業務中獲得影響力。如果我們正在發展業務，那麼我們的商品銷售成本增長速度就會慢得多。而且隨著我們推出新車，我們的單位成本正在下降，因此我們的利潤率正在提高。

When you look at the design of our vehicles and you compare it to competition, I think if you go through those benchmarks and you go through those teardowns, you can see that there's a tremendous amount of opportunity for us to design out complexity. And you should see that coming through complexity-reduction KPIs on our vehicles. I think that will be key. And it not only will be in the order combinations but also in the parts complexity, in the number of parts.

當您查看我們的車輛設計並將其與競爭對手進行比較時，我認為如果您通過這些基準測試並通過這些拆解，您會發現我們有大量機會來設計複雜性。您應該通過我們車輛上降低複雜性的 KPI 來看到這一點。我認為這將是關鍵。它不僅會出現在訂單組合中，還會出現在零件的複雜性和零件數量上。

And what we'll be doing is, as we move forward through this year, especially at Capital Markets Day, we'll be providing more details on those KPIs. But it's the key areas. You should be seeing how much productivity we're getting out of $1 of engineering. And we should do something around that from a KPI standpoint because these are the areas that we need to improve.

我們要做的是，隨著我們今年的前進，尤其是在資本市場日，我們將提供有關這些 KPI 的更多詳細信息。但這是關鍵領域。您應該看到我們從 1 美元的工程設計中獲得了多少生產力。我們應該從 KPI 的角度做一些事情，因為這些是我們需要改進的領域。

Rod, some of the things I think about -- some of the things I think about is a number of complex sequencing centers we have. Our line side complexity, number of parts sitting on the side of the line, our inventory turns inside the plant. And on the supplier side, it's going to be transparency. We had full transparency down to Tier 3 in our supply chain. It's very important to operationalize better quality and cost.

Rod，我想到的一些事情——我想到的一些事情是我們擁有的許多複雜的測序中心。我們生產線方面的複雜性，位於生產線一側的零件數量，我們的庫存在工廠內周轉。在供應商方面，這將是透明的。我們的供應鏈中的第 3 層級都完全透明。實施更好的質量和成本非常重要。

On the engineering side, it's also indirect. What's the ratio of indirect to direct engineering that we're spending, i.e., the productive engineering that's resulting in customer-facing products. And increasingly, I know it's going to sound a little bit weird, but it's the software output.

在工程方面，它也是間接的。我們花費的間接工程與直接工程的比例是多少，即產生面向客戶的產品的生產工程。越來越多，我知道這聽起來有點奇怪，但這是軟件輸出。

We are spending, as a management team, more and more time on our software platform and the cost of creating software and the complexity of software. And that's something that -- we have a lot of KPIs. They're increasing quickly and are increasingly important for us. It may not be significant for structural cost, but we have to be careful to add a lot of complexity in software.

作為一個管理團隊，我們在我們的軟件平台上花費了越來越多的時間以及創建軟件的成本和軟件的複雜性。這就是 - 我們有很多 KPI。它們增長迅速，對我們來說越來越重要。對於結構成本來說可能並不重要，但我們必須小心在軟件中增加很多複雜性。

So just to put a landmark out there, do you think a year from now we'll be looking at structural costs that are up or down? Obviously, ex pension, because you have this $3 billion cost reduction plan. And then I have a second question just on Model e.

所以只是為了樹立一個里程碑，你認為一年後我們會看到結構性成本是上升還是下降？顯然，除了養老金，因為你有這個 30 億美元的成本削減計劃。然後我有第二個問題，只是關於 Model e。

Rod, I think it's beyond just structural cost. Our biggest cost element is our material cost. We will continue to invest in our growth-related investments. So connected services, the software, as Jim talked about. We're also continuing to invest, as you know, in our build-out of our batteries. So our spending-related costs are going to go up.

羅德，我認為這不僅僅是結構成本。我們最大的成本要素是我們的材料成本。我們將繼續投資於與增長相關的投資。正如吉姆所說，連接服務、軟件。如您所知，我們還將繼續投資於我們的電池建設。因此，我們與支出相關的成本將會上升。

Volume will drive manufacturing cost, which is in our structural cost. So there will be puts and takes on the structural costs. Our biggest opportunity is in our level of material cost that we have. It's the largest cost element on our income statement, and it's where we are most uncompetitive.

數量將推動製造成本，這是我們的結構成本。因此，將會有結構性成本的投入和承擔。我們最大的機會在於我們擁有的材料成本水平。這是我們損益表中最大的成本要素，也是我們最缺乏競爭力的地方。

Yes. Okay...

是的。好的...

So we're going after everything, but I...

所以我們要全力以赴，但我...

Yes. I think I got the answer on that. Maybe just to switch gears on Model e, if I can ask Jim a question. You've got this target of 8%. And that 8% margin target presumably has some assumptions for where costs will go, but also where pricing is going to go. And just considering everyone's aspirations for growth in EVs, do you think you can stand by those pricing assumptions? And maybe a different way of asking this is, do you think you can sell a $40,000 electric crossover with a 20% gross margin?

是的。我想我得到了答案。如果我可以問 Jim 一個問題，也許只是為了在 Model e 上換檔。你已經達到了 8% 的目標。 8% 的利潤率目標可能對成本的去向以及定價的去向有一些假設。考慮到每個人對電動汽車增長的期望，你認為你能支持這些定價假設嗎？也許另一種問法是，您認為您可以以 20% 的毛利率出售價值 40,000 美元的電動跨界車嗎？

That is a very important question. The reality is we will -- we are structuring our portfolio to compete in very specific segments. The 2-row crossover is turning out to be the [core] civic of the EV business. And the last thing we want to do is commoditize our products by dropping the price. Just look what happened to Henry Ford in the 20s, in the early teens. And that's exactly what we're seeing play out here.

這是一個非常重要的問題。現實情況是我們會——我們正在構建我們的產品組合以在非常特定的細分市場中競爭。事實證明，兩排跨界車是電動汽車行業的 [核心] 思域。我們最不想做的就是通過降低價格使我們的產品商品化。看看 20 年代亨利·福特 (Henry Ford) 身上發生的事情吧。這正是我們在這裡看到的。

We didn't have to touch the pricing and offer Lightning and E-Transit because we pick the right segments. But the real driver of our future profitability on Model e is the second-cycle products. We didn't know when we designed these first 3 products. We didn't know that our wiring harness for Mach-E was 1.6 kilometers longer than it needed to be. We didn't know it's 70 pounds heavier, and that that's worth $300 of battery. We didn't know that we underinvested in braking technology to save on the battery size. We didn't know that we needed the world's best aerodynamics to get the size of the battery smaller.

我們不必觸及定價並提供 Lightning 和 E-Transit，因為我們選擇了正確的細分市場。但我們未來在 Model e 上盈利的真正驅動力是二週期產品。我們不知道什麼時候設計了這前 3 種產品。我們不知道我們的 Mach-E 線束比需要的長 1.6 公里。我們不知道它重了 70 磅，而那值 300 美元的電池。我們不知道我們在製動技術上的投資不足以節省電池尺寸。我們不知道我們需要世界上最好的空氣動力學來縮小電池的尺寸。

And so now we have learned a lot and that second cycle of the product is in the factory right now being developed with a lot of new talent. So I'm very optimistic about our 8% because we are not going to be playing in the 2-row commodity SUV market because that's -- because Ford's tried that in the ICE business It didn't really work out for us.

因此，現在我們學到了很多東西，並且該產品的第二個週期現在正在工廠中與許多新人才一起開發。所以我對我們的 8% 非常樂觀，因為我們不會進入 2 排商品 SUV 市場，因為那是 - 因為福特在 ICE 業務中嘗試過它並沒有真正為我們工作。

We want to play our hand, our strength, commercial, truck, larger vehicles on the category side. We do not want to have too many [top hats] because that costs a lot to engineer. We want to have minimum choice for customers, but we want to design the smallest possible battery for competitive size. And we want to invest differently in our ICE business for radical simplification. 30%, 40%, 50% less fasteners, no brackets in the vehicle. I can go on and on.

我們想發揮我們的手，我們的實力，商業，卡車，類別方面的大型車輛。我們不希望有太多的 [top hats]，因為這對工程師來說成本很高。我們希望為客戶提供最少的選擇，但我們希望設計盡可能小的電池以實現具有競爭力的尺寸。我們希望對我們的 ICE 業務進行不同的投資，以實現徹底的簡化。緊固件減少 30%、40%、50%，車輛中沒有支架。我可以繼續下去。

We'll get into it at Capital Markets Day. I think we should expect all brands to protect growth when it comes to EV. And that, or we have to expect negative pricing. And that means software and other items like that becoming even more critical. And I can't wait to show you our new electric architecture because, to me, that's the most critical strategic investment the company is making, not our batteries, not the EV platforms, but our new fully updatable electric architecture. Because what we've learned on Pro is we can make real money on software.

我們將在資本市場日討論它。我認為我們應該期望所有品牌在電動汽車方面都能保護增長。而且，或者我們不得不期待負定價。這意味著軟件和其他類似的項目變得更加重要。我迫不及待地想向您展示我們的新電氣架構，因為對我來說，這是公司正在進行的最關鍵的戰略投資，不是我們的電池，不是 EV 平台，而是我們全新的可完全更新的電氣架構。因為我們在 Pro 上學到的是我們可以在軟件上賺到真正的錢。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Maybe to follow up on that. I heard you say in the prepared remarks that revenue for software services and charging rose 70% year-over-year in 2022. I remember you discussing like a potential $20 billion market opportunity by 2030 with a lot of excitement on Pro at the last Investor Day, target for 33 million connected vehicles in 2028.

也許要跟進。我聽到你在準備好的評論中說，軟件服務和收費的收入在 2022 年同比增長 70%。我記得你在上屆 Investor 上討論了到 2030 年潛在的 200 億美元的市場機會，對 Pro 非常興奮日，目標是到 2028 年實現 3300 萬輛聯網汽車。

But have you dimensioned how large or profitable this business may be currently? Or are you able to share any more interim goals, such as what your expectations are for services revenue or services revenue growth in 2023? Or what the next catalyst might be here for this business, such as, I don't know, the number of vehicles launching with BlueOval intelligence or anything else we should be monitoring?

但是您是否確定了該業務目前的規模或盈利能力？或者您能否分享更多的中期目標，例如您對 2023 年服務收入或服務收入增長的預期？或者這項業務的下一個催化劑可能是什麼，例如，我不知道，使用 BlueOval 智能發射的車輛數量或我們應該監控的其他任何東西？

Right. Yes, great question. We're going to see that on Pro first, and this year is a breakout year for Pro because we have brand-new products, both core in Europe and U.S. are most -- the highest-volume, the highest-profit vehicles are all new. So a very important year for us.

正確的。是的，很好的問題。我們將首先在 Pro 上看到這一點，今年是 Pro 的突破年，因為我們有全新的產品，歐洲和美國的核心都是最多的——銷量最高、利潤最高的車輛都是新的。所以對我們來說是非常重要的一年。

I would say we absolutely have a fantastic business plan that's very specific about software and physical services. The biggest opportunity for us in the short term is the aftersales business. Only 10% of our Pro customers do business with us, and we hardly do any financing with them. And so between financing and parts and service, we have enormous upside in the short term. And those are very profitable parts of our business.

我會說我們絕對有一個非常具體的軟件和物理服務的絕妙商業計劃。短期內我們最大的機會是售後業務。只有 10% 的 Pro 客戶與我們有業務往來，我們幾乎沒有與他們進行任何融資。因此，在融資、零件和服務之間，我們在短期內有巨大的優勢。這些是我們業務中非常有利可圖的部分。

So I would think of it this way, Ryan. It's like software is starting to drive a closed loop where the customer wants to do more physical service with us. We have all those mobile units, more and more dedicated dealers and more of our commercial customers because of the use of the software is coming back and buying parts for us.

所以我會這樣想，Ryan。這就像軟件開始驅動一個閉環，客戶希望與我們一起提供更多實體服務。我們擁有所有這些移動設備、越來越多的專職經銷商和更多的商業客戶，因為軟件的使用正在回歸併為我們購買零件。

And then the next level of performance is really going to be prognostics. When we could put predictive failure in all the vehicles, like you see on John Deere and Caterpillar, and then drive that into our physical repair facilities, we're going to see a much larger retention in parts and service.

然後下一個性能水平實際上將是預測。當我們可以在所有車輛中預測故障時，就像您在 John Deere 和 Caterpillar 上看到的那樣，然後將其驅動到我們的物理維修設施中，我們將看到更大的零件和服務保留。

So I think the basics of the business are, these are profitable vehicles. We've got new ones coming out. We're going to grow that. We're -- I mean, we blew through our parts and service profits and revenue for Pro last year. It's almost like we can't even predict as this -- that software starts to really drive a different behavior for our customers, the growth in parts and service.

所以我認為業務的基礎是，這些是有利可圖的工具。我們有新的出來了。我們要發展它。我們 - 我的意思是，去年我們吹掉了 Pro 的零件和服務利潤和收入。這幾乎就像我們甚至無法預測的那樣——軟件開始真正為我們的客戶帶來不同的行為，即零件和服務的增長。

But that's the monetization in the short term for these services in the integrated ecosystem. And then long term, the real game changer kind of like autonomy in the retail space is going to be that prognostics.

但這是集成生態系統中這些服務的短期貨幣化。然後從長遠來看，真正的遊戲規則改變者有點像零售領域的自主權將是預測。

Our next question comes from James Picariello from BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

So the third quarter negative pre-announcement had a narrative around it, right? It was very high mix on wheels inventory that you couldn't ship and the additional $1 billion of supplier costs. I know Adam hit on this in his question, but this quarter is missing that storyline.

所以第三季度的負面預告有圍繞它的敘述，對吧？這是非常高的車輪庫存組合，您無法發貨，另外還有 10 億美元的供應商成本。我知道亞當在他的問題中提到了這一點，但本季度缺少那個故事情節。

I know it was mentioned that you have line of sight to $2 billion in profit that you left on the table. But what could really turn around almost immediately in this first quarter in '23 here in terms of like what operational mishaps you know will reverse in the coming months and quarter, whatever the time frame might be?

我知道有人提到你對你留在桌面上的 20 億美元利潤有視線。但是，在 23 年的第一季度，無論時間框架是什麼，在接下來的幾個月和一個季度中，您知道哪些運營事故會發生逆轉，幾乎可以立即扭轉局面？

Yes. I think it comes down to the key driver for the miss in the fourth quarter was the volumes. And the volumes was on availability of key commodities, primarily chips, and the fact that many of our suppliers had equipment issues as they were ramping. We think we've worked through a lot of those issues on the ramp in our supply chain.

是的。我認為這歸結為第四季度未命中的關鍵驅動因素是銷量。數量取決於關鍵商品（主要是芯片）的可用性，以及我們的許多供應商在生產過程中遇到設備問題的事實。我們認為我們已經在供應鏈的坡道上解決了很多這些問題。

And as far as the rate inflow on the commodities, the chips, it continues to be hand-to-hand combat. But we're putting corrective actions in place. We've got better pipelines from brokers and spot buys. And we're working very closely with our supply chain down to the Tier 2 chip suppliers.

就大宗商品、籌碼的流入率而言，它仍然是肉搏戰。但我們正在採取糾正措施。我們從經紀人和現貨購買中獲得了更好的渠道。我們正在與我們的供應鏈密切合作，直至二級芯片供應商。

So that's execution. It's changes that we're putting in place on the rate and flow, and it's being more efficient in our scheduling and the stability of our production to reduce expedited freight, expedited costs at our supply chain, et cetera. So part of it's operational. Part of it's what we're doing working with our supply chain partners. And part of it is getting through the hump on ramping up run rates, et cetera, throughout the system.

這就是執行。這是我們對費率和流量進行的改變，它在我們的調度和生產穩定性方面更有效率，以減少加急運費、我們供應鏈的加急成本等。所以它的一部分是可操作的。部分原因是我們正在與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴合作。其中一部分是通過提高整個系統的運行率等方面的困難。

Okay. Understood. That's helpful. And then in terms of the earnings bridge for this year, with respect to materials and freight, that $9 billion headwind in '22. I know you mentioned you're breaking in commodity prices to come down. But all in, relative to that $9 billion this past year, what's assumed in the '23 guide here on this line item?

好的。明白了。這很有幫助。然後就今年的收入橋樑而言，在材料和運費方面，22 年的 90 億美元逆風。我知道你提到你正在打破大宗商品價格來降低價格。但總而言之，相對於去年的 90 億美元，'23 指南中關於此項目的假設是什麼？

Right. So if you look at that, it's at least $2.5 billion, depending on where we fall within the range of the guidance. So I think that would be a start point, and then we would go from there. And of course, we're going to be working to do better than that. But that's what we see so far.

正確的。所以如果你看一下，它至少是 25 億美元，這取決於我們在指導範圍內的位置。所以我認為這將是一個起點，然後我們將從那裡開始。當然，我們將努力做得更好。但這就是我們目前所看到的。

So at least $2.5 billion positive?

那麼至少有 25 億美元是正數？

Yes.

是的。

Our last question comes from Itay Michaeli from Citi.

我們的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Itay Michaeli。

Just two questions for me. First, I was hoping you could maybe talk about the regional outlook in your 2023 guidance. I don't know that the segments are about to change, but hoping you could touch on the regions.

只問我兩個問題。首先，我希望您可以在 2023 年指南中談談區域前景。我不知道細分市場即將發生變化，但希望您能觸及地區。

And then second, maybe for Jim. When we're thinking about the software opportunity on your new electrical architecture on the consumer side of the business, where do you see the biggest opportunity there from a revenue perspective? Is it automated driving? Is it connected services? Just curious what is most interesting there.

其次，也許是為了吉姆。當我們考慮業務消費者方面的新電氣架構上的軟件機會時，從收入的角度來看，您在哪裡看到最大的機會？是自動駕駛嗎？它是連接服務嗎？只是好奇那裡最有趣的是什麼。

Yes. So...

是的。所以...

On the regions?

在地區？

Yes. I think what we would have to say is that, given that we're moving to our segments for 2023, we're not going to be reporting the regions. And so we will give more color on 2023 by each of the business unit segments. And so I'm not going to comment on regions anymore going forward, unless there's a specific reason to do that within one of the segments.

是的。我認為我們不得不說的是，鑑於我們將轉向 2023 年的細分市場，我們不會報告地區。因此，我們將按每個業務部門細分市場為 2023 年提供更多顏色。因此，我不會再對未來的地區發表評論，除非有特定的理由在其中一個細分市場中這樣做。

I think on the demand side, we see the U.S. around the 15 million range, Europe around 13 million. We're going to see more incentives in the U.S. So we can go through the demand side if that's what you're interested in.

我認為在需求方面，我們看到美國在 1500 萬左右，歐洲在 1300 萬左右。我們將在美國看到更多激勵措施，因此如果您對此感興趣，我們可以從需求方面進行分析。

Yes, sure. That would be helpful. Yes. Maybe pricing in Europe would be helpful as well.

是的，當然。那會很有幫助。是的。也許歐洲的定價也會有所幫助。

Yes. I think in Europe, we're going to see continued pressure on the top line. We've got a 13 million unit in the industry. We think we still have such a strong order bank. We -- not think, we know we have a strong order bank on our commercial vehicles that we don't see as much pressure there. More of the pressure will come on the passenger side.

是的。我認為在歐洲，我們將看到收入繼續承受壓力。我們在行業中擁有 1300 萬單位。我們認為我們仍然擁有如此強大的訂單庫。我們 - 不認為，我們知道我們的商用車輛有強大的訂單銀行，我們在那裡沒有看到那麼大的壓力。更多的壓力將來自乘客方面。

But pricing in Europe, incentives continue to be strong throughout this year. So I don't think you'll see as much price compression in Europe, as you've seen in -- you'll see in North America and the U.S. But I think, definitely for Europe, it's the call on the industry and where do we think that will be, offset by the strength of the order bank we have on our commercial vehicles.

但在歐洲定價，激勵措施在今年全年繼續強勁。所以我不認為你會在歐洲看到那麼多的價格壓縮，就像你在北美和美國看到的那樣。但我認為，對於歐洲來說，這是對行業和我們認為這會被我們在商用車上擁有的訂單銀行的實力所抵消。

Coming back to the U.S., as we said, a 15 million unit industry. We think prices are going to come and the industry are going to fall -- transaction prices will fall about 5%. If you think about that, it's about the combination of incentives and lower dealer margins. We're starting to see dealer margins come down now as our demand from the industry is easing a bit. And we're starting to see the inflationary costs come through with the pricing. And so we're starting to see those margins come off.

回到美國，正如我們所說，一個 1500 萬單位的產業。我們認為價格將到來，行業將下跌——交易價格將下跌約 5%。如果您考慮一下，那就是激勵措施和較低的經銷商利潤率的結合。隨著我們對行業的需求有所緩和，我們現在開始看到經銷商利潤率下降。我們開始看到通貨膨脹成本隨著定價而來。所以我們開始看到這些利潤率下降。

And I think, as we go through the year, particularly in the second half, you'll start to see prices come down through higher incentives by the OEMs. When you look at our International Markets Group, I think it's a little bit different there. Our key product is Ranger, and that's all new, and that's launching, and so there's incredible demand for it. And so we think we have some pricing power there as well.

而且我認為，隨著我們度過這一年，特別是在下半年，你會開始看到價格因原始設備製造商的更高激勵而下降。當您查看我們的國際市場集團時，我認為那裡有點不同。我們的主要產品是 Ranger，它是全新的，而且正在推出，因此對它的需求量驚人。所以我們認為我們在那裡也有一些定價權。

So I think there's puts and takes around the region, if you look at it on a macro basis. And I think it will be more insightful as we talk about what's happening in each of the segments and then specifically what's happening in Pro, Blue and e in those segments around the world.

所以我認為，如果你從宏觀的角度來看，這個地區會出現看跌期權和看跌期權。我認為，當我們討論每個細分市場正在發生的事情，然後特別是 Pro、Blue 和 e 在全球這些細分市場中發生的事情時，它會更有見地。

On the software side, we were guessing before, but now we kind of know what the first 3 shippable large TAM software revenue sources are for our industry. The first is partial autonomy, the second is safety and security and the third is productivity. And the star people in there, the early leaders, definitely ADAS, on pricing revenue growth.

在軟件方面，我們之前一直在猜測，但現在我們有點知道我們行業的前 3 個可交付的大型 TAM 軟件收入來源是什麼。第一個是部分自治，第二個是安全保障，第三個是生產力。那裡的明星人物，早期的領導者，絕對是 ADAS，在定價收入增長方面。

I mean the growth we're seeing, the demand we're seeing for BlueCruise and all ADAS features is really driving a lot of software shipment. We're about to ship our second cycle of BlueCruise already, and we are really starting to see -- that is clearly what customers want revenue-wise. And I do believe in this first 3, 4 years of software to the car that ADAS, that Level 2, Level 3 system is really the most remarkable TAM.

我的意思是我們看到的增長，我們看到的對 BlueCruise 和所有 ADAS 功能的需求確實推動了大量軟件出貨。我們即將推出我們的第二個 BlueCruise 週期，我們真的開始看到——這顯然是客戶想要的收入。我確實相信這前 3 年、4 年的汽車軟件 ADAS，即 2 級、3 級系統確實是最出色的 TAM。

However, in the background, for Ford, the productivity software in Pro is really important. It's maybe unique to us, but it is a very important part of our software revenue, which we will lay out in May. You'll see more specifics on it, but it's very profitable. The customers love the data, and they have a higher demand for the data and the software than the retail customer.

然而，在後台，對於福特來說，Pro 中的生產力軟件確實很重要。它可能對我們來說是獨一無二的，但它是我們軟件收入中非常重要的一部分，我們將在 5 月份公佈。你會看到更多關於它的細節，但它非常有利可圖。客戶喜歡數據，他們對數據和軟件的需求比零售客戶更高。

I think the slow burn, the one in the background that I'm super excited about is the third leg of the stool, the safety and security. Not like someone stole your car, but it's video content, a lot of it tied to insurance. So this is going to be a really interesting area. Kind of think of your cars and extension of your ring and all the safety and security you have in your house now, all that technology, the cars give me another note on that. It will go for everything from teenage drivers to all sorts of things.

我認為緩慢的燃燒，在背景中讓我非常興奮的是凳子的第三條腿，安全和保障。不像有人偷了你的車，而是視頻內容，其中很多都與保險有關。所以這將是一個非常有趣的領域。想想你的汽車和你的戒指的延伸，以及你現在家裡所有的安全和保障，所有這些技術，汽車給了我另一個說明。它適用於從青少年司機到各種各樣的事情。

And that video capture is going to be the essence. Another reason why we think our next electrical architecture is so strategically important for the company because we want to embed that hardware and software and adaptability in the electric architecture so we can ship the software, better software than our competition on safety and security, even if it's a little fuzzy on what the features are today.

而視頻捕捉將成為本質。我們認為我們的下一個電氣架構對公司具有戰略重要性的另一個原因是，我們希望將硬件和軟件以及適應性嵌入到電氣架構中，這樣我們就可以交付軟件，比我們在安全和保障方面的競爭對手更好的軟件，即使今天的功能有點模糊。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

福特汽車公司 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。