福特汽車 (F) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Chad, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天。我的名字是乍得，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎您參加福特汽車公司 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）另請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。請繼續。

Thanks, Chad. Welcome to Ford Motor Company's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me today are Jim Farley, our President and CEO; and John Lawler, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit.

謝謝，乍得。歡迎來到福特汽車公司 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Farley；和我們的首席財務官 John Lawler。 Ford Credit 首席執行官 Marion Harris 也加入了我們的問答環節。

Today's discussions include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck, along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content, at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論包括一些非公認會計原則的參考。這些與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則措施相一致。您可以在 sharepoint.ford.com 上找到該套牌以及我們的其他收益材料和其他重要內容。

Today's discussions also include forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 22. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis, and product mix is volume weighted.

今天的討論還包括關於我們預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素包含在第 22 頁。除非另有說明，否則所有比較都是逐年比較。公司息稅前利潤、每股收益和自由現金流是在調整後的基礎上計算的，產品組合是體積加權的。

Looking at our IR calendar, we have 2 upcoming engagements. Tomorrow, BNP Paribas will host a fireside chat with John Lawler and Kumar Galhotra, President of Ford Blue; and on August 10, at their Auto Conference in New York, JPMorgan will host a fireside chat with Ted Cannis, CEO of Ford Pro.

查看我們的 IR 日曆，我們有 2 個即將到來的約會。明天，法國巴黎銀行將與 John Lawler 和 Ford Blue 總裁 Kumar Galhotra 舉行爐邊談話； 8 月 10 日，在紐約舉行的汽車大會上，摩根大通將與福特 Pro 首席執行官 Ted Cannis 進行爐邊談話。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim Farley.

現在我將把電話轉給 Jim Farley。

Thanks, Lynn. Hello, everyone. The Ford team delivered a very solid second quarter in a challenging environment where we saw supply chain disruptions, a lot of new economic headwinds and uncertainty as a whole. Importantly, we achieved these results as we advance the Ford+ plan, which is the biggest opportunity to create value at Ford since we scaled the Model T. And at the core of Ford+ are 3 fundamental promises to our customers: distinctive and breakthrough products and experiences; and always on relationship with Ford every day, every hour, every minute; and ever-improving post-purchase user experiences powered by software.

謝謝，林恩。大家好。福特團隊在充滿挑戰的環境中實現了非常穩健的第二季度，我們看到供應鏈中斷、許多新的經濟逆風和整體不確定性。重要的是，我們在推進 Ford+ 計劃時取得了這些成果，這是自我們擴大 Model T 規模以來在福特創造價值的最大機會。Ford+ 的核心是對我們客戶的 3 個基本承諾：獨特和突破性的產品和體驗;每天、每一小時、每一分鐘都與福特保持著密切的關係；以及由軟件提供支持的不斷改進的售後用戶體驗。

Today, I'll give you an update on Ford+ and the early results of our decisions to reorganize the company into 3 distinct segments: Model e, Ford Blue and Ford Pro.

今天，我將向您介紹 Ford+ 的最新情況以及我們決定將公司重組為 3 個不同部門的初步結果：Model e、Ford Blue 和 Ford Pro。

Now let me start with the progress we're making to lead the electric vehicle and digital revolution. What's lost in the industry's arm race of claims regarding capital invested, the number of top hats we all have, the promises of future leadership is one fundamental question: who is and will be the best position to design truly distinctive and appealing products that people actually love? That's the question.

現在讓我先談談我們在引領電動汽車和數字革命方面取得的進展。在行業對資本投資、我們所有人擁有的大禮帽的數量、未來領導力的承諾的軍備競賽中失去了什麼是一個基本問題：誰是並且將是設計真正獨特和吸引人的產品的最佳位置，而人們實際上是愛？這就是問題所在。

Now we've been overwhelmed with the demand for our first-generation EVs, the Mustang Mach-E, the Lightning and the E-Transit. These products are in the market now, and we have strong multiyear order banks. We're selling them as fast as we can make them.

現在，我們對第一代電動汽車 Mustang Mach-E、Lightning 和 E-Transit 的需求已經不堪重負。這些產品現已上市，我們擁有強大的多年訂單庫。我們正在以盡可能快的速度銷售它們。

And you can't say that about many of the EVs coming to market now. We believe that these great new products will enable us to grab an outsized share of the rapidly growing EV market, combined with our healthy and vibrant shares of our ICE and growing hybrid markets.

對於現在上市的許多電動汽車，你不能這麼說。我們相信，這些出色的新產品將使我們能夠在快速增長的電動汽車市場中獲得巨大份額，同時我們在 ICE 和不斷增長的混合動力市場中擁有健康而充滿活力的份額。

This month, we expect to produce 14,000 EVs globally. That's significantly higher than just a few months ago, and we have a clear path to reach a run rate of 60,000 EVs by the end of next year. And that will lead to a foundation to 2 million by late 2026. In fact, our anticipated growth rate in EVs through 2026 is more than twice what we expect for the global EV industry in total.

本月，我們預計將在全球生產 14,000 輛電動汽車。這比幾個月前要高得多，我們有一條明確的道路可以在明年年底前達到 60,000 輛電動汽車的運行率。這將導致到 2026 年末達到 200 萬輛的基礎。事實上，到 2026 年，我們對電動汽車的預期增長率是我們對全球電動汽車行業總體預期的兩倍多。

Now securing the raw materials to produce batteries at scale is critical to our plan. It's estimated that, at best, 50% of all raw materials required to meet the combined announced targets for all EV OEMs is actually available, 50%. And this is why speed to securing supply is so critical and strategic, so is diversifying our battery chemistries to increase our flexibility, supply and profit and to support different customer use cases.

現在，確保大規模生產電池的原材料對我們的計劃至關重要。據估計，滿足所有 EV OEM 宣布的合併目標所需的所有原材料中，最多 50% 是實際可用的，即 50%。這就是為什麼確保供應的速度如此重要和具有戰略意義，因此多樣化我們的電池化學品以提高我們的靈活性、供應和利潤並支持不同的客戶用例。

Last week, we announced a series of MOUs and agreements to fulfill our ambition -- ambitious needs that I covered, and we are working to complete definitive agreements where necessary. Our Model e team moved quickly to capture these opportunities. To summarize, we've added battery chemistries and secure contracts, delivering 60 gigawatt hours of annual battery capacity, which will help us support fully the 600,000 units of that 2023 run rate of capacity.

上週，我們宣布了一系列諒解備忘錄和協議，以實現我們的雄心壯志——我所涵蓋的雄心勃勃的需求，我們正在努力在必要時完成最終協議。我們的 Model e 團隊迅速採取行動，抓住了這些機會。總而言之，我們增加了電池化學品和安全合同，每年提供 60 吉瓦時的電池容量，這將幫助我們完全支持 2023 年運行速度的 600,000 單位。

We now have lithium-ion phosphate, or LFP, battery packs coming for the Mach-E sold in North America next year and for Lightning in early 2024, creating more capacity for these high-demand products. We secured 70% of the battery capacity needed to support 2 million units by the end of 2026, and we struck a new deal with CATL on strategic cooperation for global battery supplies as well as deals for direct sourcing of critical battery raw materials in the U.S., Australia, Indonesia and more locations. And we have a plan to localize 40-gigawatt hours per year LFP capacity in North America by 2026. These deals are a strong start as we fortify our EV supply chain that's aligned with our sustainability and human rights principles.

我們現在為明年在北美銷售的 Mach-E 和 2024 年初的 Lightning 提供磷酸鋰離子 (LFP) 電池組，為這些高需求產品創造更多容量。到2026年底，我們獲得了支持200萬隻電池所需的70%的電池產能，我們與寧德時代就全球電池供應戰略合作以及在美國直接採購關鍵電池原材料達成了新協議。 、澳大利亞、印度尼西亞和更多地點。我們計劃到 2026 年將北美每年 40 吉瓦時的 LFP 產能本地化。這些交易是一個良好的開端，因為我們加強了符合我們的可持續發展和人權原則的電動汽車供應鏈。

Now let's talk about the progress we're making in building out and always on relationship with customers and that ever-improving user experience enabled by software after the customer buys a vehicle. Now along with product execution, these are really the relevant sustainable advantages we see to create, in today's hypercompetitive market, a difference where the real competition is not legacy OEMs, but pure-play EV companies, including emerging Chinese players.

現在讓我們談談我們在建立並始終與客戶建立關係方面取得的進展，以及在客戶購買車輛後通過軟件實現的不斷改善的用戶體驗。現在，隨著產品執行，這些確實是我們看到的相關可持續優勢，在當今競爭激烈的市場中，真正的競爭不是傳統 OEM，而是純電動汽車公司，包括新興的中國企業。

For example, more than 55,000 Ford customers have already driven nearly 10 million miles with BlueCruise, our hands-free L2 system. That's just 1 year after the capacity was launched, and we started OTA-ing this to our vehicles. We're using the data we get through BlueCruise to continue to improve the customer experience. And as it happens, you can imagine a significant ADAS revenue and profit stream being created by giving customers the ability to work, watch a film or even take a nap during a long trip in their Ford. While the financial benefits of ADAS are clear, as is our Ford Pro services stack, they're relatively small now, but we're rapidly increasing the number of digital vehicles on the road as well as attach rates of the enabling services. And over time, much of the SaaS revenue will be deferred on our balance sheet, providing an annuity-like revenue stream that is highly accretive, something this company and this industry has never seen.

例如，超過 55,000 名福特客戶已經使用我們的免提 L2 系統 BlueCruise 行駛了近 1000 萬英里。那是容量啟動後僅 1 年，我們開始 OTA 將其安裝到我們的車輛上。我們正在使用通過 BlueCruise 獲得的數據來繼續改善客戶體驗。碰巧的是，您可以想像通過讓客戶能夠在他們的福特長途旅行中工作、看電影甚至小睡的能力，創造了可觀的 ADAS 收入和利潤流。雖然 ADAS 的財務收益是顯而易見的，我們的 Ford Pro 服務堆棧也是如此，但它們現在相對較小，但我們正在迅速增加道路上的數字車輛數量以及支持服務的附加率。隨著時間的推移，大部分 SaaS 收入將在我們的資產負債表上遞延，提供類似年金的高增值收入流，這是這家公司和這個行業從未見過的。

Now before I turn to Ford Blue, let me talk briefly about our connected EV dealer model in the U.S. Changes in the market have compelled Ford and our dealers to revisit how customers shop, buy and own, and how they will do this going forward. We're moving fast as the transition to these digital EV platforms allows us to help our dealers provide better customer ownership experience post purchase, and in turn, enables them to expand the revenue and profit pools, expanding and improving their returns. We're working with our dealers to create a retail model better than what's offered by any traditional OEM and better than the startups who are now scrambling to develop sales and service networks to support customers in an attempt to sustain and grow share in UIO.

現在，在我轉向 Ford Blue 之前，讓我簡要介紹一下我們在美國的聯網 EV 經銷商模式。市場變化迫使福特和我們的經銷商重新審視客戶如何購物、購買和擁有，以及他們將如何做到這一點。隨著向這些數字電動汽車平台的過渡使我們能夠幫助我們的經銷商在購買後提供更好的客戶擁有體驗，我們正在快速行動，進而使他們能夠擴大收入和利潤池，擴大和提高他們的回報。我們正在與我們的經銷商合作，創造一種比任何傳統 OEM 提供的零售模式更好的零售模式，也比現在爭先恐後地開發銷售和服務網絡以支持客戶以試圖維持和增加 UIO 份額的初創公司更好。

In the U.S. alone, if we can help our dealers increase service loyalty by just 20 points, that's $2.4 billion incremental revenue for them every year. Now since March, we've conducted more than 30 workshops in the U.S. and Canada, reaching hundreds of our dealers. I have personally been involved in many of these meetings. What is clear to me but not yet visible to the market is that our dealers are embracing this change. They know the competitive threat is real, and they want Ford and their dealership to lead and win. And we have more to share as this develops.

僅在美國，如果我們能夠幫助我們的經銷商將服務忠誠度提高 20 點，那麼他們每年將增加 24 億美元的收入。自 3 月以來，我們已在美國和加拿大舉辦了 30 多次研討會，惠及數百家經銷商。我親自參與了許多這樣的會議。對我來說很清楚但對市場尚不可見的是，我們的經銷商正在接受這種變化。他們知道競爭威脅是真實存在的，他們希望福特和他們的經銷商能夠領先並贏得勝利。隨著這種情況的發展，我們還有更多要分享。

Now turning to Ford Blue. The team is motivated by this sharpening focus on our ICE and hybrid products. We've added new talent and leadership to drive performance and focus in our trucks, our great family lineup and our enthusiast vehicles we're so proud of. We've revealed new vehicles like the Bronco Raptor, the Bronco Everglades, the F-150 Raptor R, which my kids think sounds great. In the third quarter, we'll unveil an all-new seventh generation Mustang at the North America International Auto Show in Detroit. It is a stunning car, and I'm so excited to share it with the world. And also this fall, we'll be introducing an all-new Super Duty pickup, the workhorse at Ford, and it sets a standard in our industry.

現在轉向福特藍。團隊的動力來自於對我們的 ICE 和混合產品的日益關注。我們增加了新的人才和領導力，以提高性能並專注於我們的卡車、我們偉大的家庭陣容和我們引以為豪的發燒友車輛。我們已經展示了新的車輛，例如 Bronco Raptor、Bronco Everglades、F-150 Raptor R，我的孩子們認為這些車輛聽起來很棒。第三季度，我們將在底特律的北美國際車展上推出全新的第七代野馬。這是一輛令人驚嘆的汽車，我很高興能與世界分享它。同樣在今年秋天，我們將推出一款全新的 Super Duty 皮卡，這是福特的主力車型，它為我們的行業樹立了標準。

There's much more to come. Our design center is filled with new products and derivatives that will further strengthen our hit vehicles in the ICE and hybrid franchises like F-150 and Bronco and Maverick, the brand-new global Ranger that's launching in Thailand, and our new Everest. In short, our hottest and freshest lineup in recent history is getting even better.

還有很多事情要做。我們的設計中心充滿了新產品和衍生產品，這將進一步加強我們在 ICE 和混合動力系列中的熱門車輛，如 F-150 和 Bronco 和 Maverick、在泰國推出的全新全球 Ranger 以及我們的新珠穆朗瑪峰。簡而言之，我們最近歷史上最熱門和最新鮮的陣容正在變得更好。

Now in commercial vehicle market, Ford Pro, our industry-leading global business, is leading the change into an electric software-driven world. Other OEMs are talking about large numbers of future electric orders. We're actually taking orders for manufacturing and selling commercial vehicles now.

現在在商用車市場，我們行業領先的全球業務福特 Pro 正在引領向電動軟件驅動世界的變革。其他 OEM 正在談論大量未來的電動訂單。我們現在實際上正在接受製造和銷售商用車的訂單。

Through the second quarter, we've sold more than 3,000 E-Transit in the U.S. That's a market share of 95% in the full-sized electric van market, 95%. In fact, our next 2 competitors combined sold just 159 vehicles.

到第二季度，我們在美國售出了 3,000 多輛 E-Transit。這在全尺寸電動麵包車市場中佔據了 95% 的市場份額，即 95%。事實上，我們接下來的 2 個競爭對手總共只售出了 159 輛汽車。

Beyond the vehicles, we're also rolling out our Ford Pro charging commercial solutions and the very exciting and fast-growing e-telematics software solutions. And boy, are they paying off.

除了車輛之外，我們還推出了我們的福特 Pro 充電商業解決方案和非常令人興奮且快速增長的電子遠程信息處理軟件解決方案。男孩，他們有回報嗎？

And in Europe, where we continue to be the leading commercial vehicle brand, we already received 8,000 orders for our 2-tonne E-Transit, and our new 1-tonne E-Transit Custom goes on sale next year.

在歐洲，我們仍然是領先的商用車品牌，我們的 2 噸 E-Transit 已收到 8,000 份訂單，我們新的 1 噸 E-Transit Custom 將於明年開始銷售。

Now our Ford Pro software business is growing quickly. Paid telematics subscriptions globally have grown over 40% sequentially for the last 2 quarters.

現在，我們的 Ford Pro 軟件業務正在快速增長。過去兩個季度，全球付費遠程信息處理訂閱量環比增長超過 40%。

Turning to quality. We made solid progress in initial quality, as you've seen in the recent J.D. Power's IQS study, and our launches have improved. However, we continue to be hampered by recalls and customer satisfaction actions. Yes, this affects our cost, but more importantly, it falls short on our most fundamental commitment to our customers. Quality is our #1 priority. In fact, we recently brought on Josh Halliburton from J.D. Power to head quality. Now the team is focused on 3 critical areas: prevention, detection and remediation.

轉向質量。正如您在最近的 J.D. Power 的 IQS 研究中所見，我們在初始質量方面取得了堅實的進步，我們的發布也有所改進。然而，我們繼續受到召回和客戶滿意度行動的阻礙。是的，這會影響我們的成本，但更重要的是，它未能實現我們對客戶最基本的承諾。質量是我們的第一要務。事實上，我們最近聘請了 J.D. Power 的 Josh Halliburton 來提升頭部質量。現在，該團隊專注於 3 個關鍵領域：預防、檢測和補救。

We've instituted more robust engineering sign-off processes for the vehicles that are in the product development factory as we speak. We're driving much more frequent alignment with our supply base on quality. And when identified issues, we take actions quickly to resolve them, to protect our customer's experience, including by making much more frequent use of over-the-air updates. And boy, has that worked for us. We have more work to do in this space, and we will keep you updated.

正如我們所說，我們已經為產品開發工廠中的車輛建立了更強大的工程驗收流程。我們正在推動與我們的供應基地在質量方面更加頻繁地保持一致。當發現問題時，我們會迅速採取行動解決這些問題，以保護我們客戶的體驗，包括更頻繁地使用無線更新。男孩，這對我們有用嗎？我們在這個領域還有更多工作要做，我們會及時通知您。

Overall, we're pleased with the progress this year, but we are not nearly satisfied. We remain clear-eyed and determined to move with speed and determination on a Ford+ transformation. The underlying strength of our business supports our 2022 adjusted EBIT guidance range of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, unchanged from April.

總的來說，我們對今年的進展感到滿意，但我們並不滿意。我們仍然保持清醒，並決心在福特+轉型中以速度和決心前進。我們業務的潛在實力支持我們 2022 年調整後的 EBIT 指導範圍為 115 億美元至 125 億美元，與 4 月持平。

Before I turn it over to John, I want to end with this. There's context that's critical to how we think about implementing our Ford+ plan. Traditionally, the auto industry has cut costs, often indiscriminately. As an effect, of course, from lower auto demands through economic softness and shift for customer preferences.

在我把它交給約翰之前，我想以此結束。對於我們如何考慮實施我們的福特+計劃來說，背景是至關重要的。傳統上，汽車行業通常不加選擇地削減成本。當然，其影響是從較低的汽車需求到經濟疲軟和客戶偏好的轉變。

What we're undertaking forward is totally different than that. We're reshaping virtually every aspect of the way we've done business for a century. And we're doing that for a new industry based on new technology, new skills and a new promise for customer value. And yet, cost reduction will happen in our ICE business because that's primarily what is made up of Ford today. But we're modernizing to take out unnecessary costs, redesigning work and strategically investing across all of our auto businesses, ICE and hybrid, then EVs and then Ford Pro, while at the same time, transforming every function that supports them.

我們正在進行的工作與此完全不同。我們正在重塑一個世紀以來開展業務的方式的方方面面。我們正在為一個基於新技術、新技能和對客戶價值的新承諾的新行業這樣做。然而，我們的 ICE 業務將降低成本，因為這主要是福特今天的組成部分。但我們正在進行現代化以消除不必要的成本，重新設計工作並戰略性地投資於我們所有的汽車業務，ICE 和混合動力車，然後是電動汽車，然後是福特 Pro，同時轉變支持它們的每一個功能。

Sweeping strategic change generates interest and speculation in the media, which we understand. However, we're going to comment on Ford+ actions we're taking and how they're going to strengthen our company on our own schedule. John?

我們理解，全面的戰略變革會引起媒體的興趣和猜測。但是，我們將評論我們正在採取的 Ford+ 行動，以及它們將如何按照我們自己的時間表加強我們的公司。約翰？

Thanks, Jim. During the quarter, on an adjusted basis, we delivered EBIT of $3.7 billion, an EBIT margin of 9.3% and free cash flow of $3.6 billion. Our cash conversion in the quarter was very strong and lifting our first half to 50%, with the target range of 50% to 60% that we set out at Capital Markets Day.

謝謝，吉姆。在本季度，經調整後，我們的息稅前利潤為 37 億美元，息稅前利潤率為 9.3%，自由現金流為 36 億美元。我們在本季度的現金轉換非常強勁，將我們的上半年提高到 50%，我們在資本市場日設定的目標範圍是 50% 到 60%。

We ended the quarter with strong cash and liquidity of $29 billion and $45 billion, respectively. And now these numbers include our stake in Rivian, which was valued at $2 billion at the end of the quarter. In Q2, we also successfully renewed our $17.2 billion sustainability-linked global credit facilities, which include a new $1.75 billion 364-day revolver, which provides for additional working capital flexibility. Our strong balance sheet is a solid foundation for continuing to invest in our Ford+ priorities.

我們在本季度末的現金和流動性分別為 290 億美元和 450 億美元。現在這些數字包括我們在 Rivian 的股份，在本季度末價值 20 億美元。在第二季度，我們還成功續簽了價值 172 億美元的與可持續發展相關的全球信貸額度，其中包括一項新的 17.5 億美元的 364 天循環貸款，它提供了額外的營運資金靈活性。我們強大的資產負債表是繼續投資於我們的 Ford+ 優先事項的堅實基礎。

Our results this quarter reflect the improved earnings and cash flow potential of our business, along with leverage created from disciplined capital allocation and a much more focused business model, including our industrial footprint. The tough choices we made during the global redesign to de-risk our business and exit unprofitable markets and products is paying off.

我們本季度的業績反映了我們業務的盈利和現金流潛力的改善，以及由嚴格的資本分配和更加集中的商業模式（包括我們的工業足跡）創造的槓桿作用。我們在全球重新設計期間為降低業務風險和退出無利可圖的市場和產品而做出的艱難選擇正在取得成效。

From 2018 to 2021, our markets outside North America consumed nearly $9 billion of free cash flow. This year, these markets are collectively expected to be free cash flow positive.

從 2018 年到 2021 年，我們在北美以外的市場消耗了近 90 億美元的自由現金流。今年，這些市場的總體預期是自由現金流為正。

We are confident in the underlying strength of our business and our ability to fund all the calls of capital -- all the calls that we have on capital, especially those fundamental to growth and value creation. We can achieve this while maintaining the financial flexibility to navigate external uncertainties. And as a result, we're increasing our regular quarterly dividend to $0.15 a share beginning this quarter. This returns us to the prepandemic dividend levels.

我們對我們業務的潛在實力以及我們為所有資本呼籲提供資金的能力充滿信心——我們對資本的所有呼籲，尤其是那些對增長和價值創造至關重要的呼籲。我們可以在保持財務靈活性以應對外部不確定性的同時實現這一目標。因此，從本季度開始，我們將定期季度股息提高至每股 0.15 美元。這使我們回到了大流行前的股息水平。

Now let me touch on the performance of our business units. North America delivered $3.3 billion of EBIT and a margin of 11.3%. Both of those measures were up year-over-year as an 89% increase in wholesales and strong net pricing and mix more than offset higher commodity costs and inflationary pressures.

現在讓我談談我們業務部門的表現。北美的息稅前利潤為 33 億美元，利潤率為 11.3%。這兩項指標均同比上升，因為批發量增長了 89%，淨定價和組合強勁，抵消了較高的商品成本和通脹壓力。

South America continues to benefit from our global redesign efforts, delivering its fourth consecutive profitable quarter. In Europe, we posted a modest profit as a large increase in wholesales helped us reach just above breakeven EBIT. The underlying trajectory of the region continues to improve. However, the adverse effects of the near-term supply chain disruption are dampening its overall results. In China, we posted a loss as the local economy and auto industry were significantly disrupted by pandemic-related restrictions and lockdowns. Now Lincoln continues to be a profit pillar for the region, gaining share in the quarter, along with commercial vehicles.

南美洲繼續受益於我們的全球重新設計工作，連續第四個季度實現盈利。在歐洲，我們公佈了適度的利潤，因為批發業務的大幅增長幫助我們達到了略高於盈虧平衡的 EBIT。該地區的基本軌跡繼續改善。然而，近期供應鏈中斷的不利影響正在抑制其整體業績。在中國，由於當地經濟和汽車行業受到與大流行相關的限制和封鎖的嚴重干擾，我們錄得虧損。現在林肯繼續成為該地區的利潤支柱，與商用車一起在本季度獲得份額。

Our International Markets Group continues to be sustainably profitable as a result of its restructuring efforts. In Mobility, we are progressing our in-market pilots for moving goods and moving people and remain committed to autonomous driving. And finally, Ford Credit delivered another strong quarter with EBT of $900 million, reflecting strong lease residuals and credit loss performance.

由於重組努力，我們的國際市場集團繼續保持可持續盈利。在 Mobility 方面，我們正在推進我們的市場內貨物運輸和人員運輸試點，並繼續致力於自動駕駛。最後，福特信貸實現了另一個強勁的季度，EBT 達到 9 億美元，反映了強勁的租賃殘差和信用損失表現。

Now let me share with you our current thinking for the remainder of 2022. For the full year, our guidance is unchanged. We expect to earn between $11.5 billion and $12.5 billion in adjusted EBIT, which is up 15% to 25% from 2021. This reflects 10% to 15% year-over-year growth in wholesales and assumes that semiconductor availability continues to improve.

現在讓我與您分享我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的當前想法。全年，我們的指導保持不變。我們預計調整後息稅前利潤將在 115 億美元至 125 億美元之間，比 2021 年增長 15% 至 25%。這反映了批發業務同比增長 10% 至 15%，並假設半導體可用性繼續改善。

[In addition], we're projecting to generate adjusted free cash flow of $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion, with a significant portion of that coming from automotive operations. Relative to adjusted EBIT on a year-over-year basis, our range assumes significantly higher profits in North America, collective profitability in the rest of the world, strong but lower Ford Credit EBT, they'll be in the $3 billion range, and modest improvements in Mobility and Corporate Other.

[此外]，我們預計將產生 55 億至 65 億美元的調整後自由現金流，其中很大一部分來自汽車業務。相對於按年調整的息稅前利潤，我們的範圍假設北美的利潤顯著提高，世界其他地區的集體盈利能力，強勁但較低的福特信貸息稅前利潤，它們將在 30 億美元的範圍內，並且移動性和企業其他方面的適度改善。

Other key assumptions include strong order banks and pent-up demand for our new and iconic products, continued strength in pricing, which includes the benefits of pricing actions taken during the year, commodity headwinds of about $4 billion, which we expect to offset with improvements in net pricing and mix, a continuation of other broad-based inflationary pressures, and we now expect the full effect to be about $3 billion, which is up $1 billion from our estimate last quarter. And of course, we're aggressively working on offsets to these increases.

其他關鍵假設包括強勁的訂單銀行和對我們新的標誌性產品的被壓抑的需求，定價的持續強勢，其中包括年內採取的定價行動的好處，約 40 億美元的商品逆風，我們預計將通過改進來抵消在淨定價和組合方面，其他廣泛的通脹壓力繼續存在，我們現在預計全部影響約為 30 億美元，比我們上一季度的估計增加 10 億美元。當然，我們正在積極努力抵消這些增長。

And finally, at Ford Credit, auction values will remain strong but decline in the second half as the supply of new vehicles improve. EBT will be strong but lower, reflecting primarily lower credit loss reserve release, fewer return off-lease vehicles and more normalized credit losses. Our results in the quarter, full year outlook and commitment to medium-term targets together demonstrate the power of Ford+ as we invest aggressively to drive growth and value creation.

最後，在福特信貸，拍賣價值將保持強勁，但隨著新車供應的改善，下半年會下降。 EBT 將強勁但較低，主要反映了較低的信用損失準備金釋放、較少的退租工具和更多的標準化信用損失。我們在本季度的業績、全年展望和對中期目標的承諾共同展示了 Ford+ 的力量，因為我們積極投資以推動增長和價值創造。

But before we turn it to Q&A, let me provide a quick update on our new financial reporting. As we shared in March, starting in the first quarter of 2023, we will have 3 new business segments: Ford Model e, Ford Blue and Ford Pro, and will no longer report a combined automotive segment. With Ford Next, which is formerly Mobility, and Ford Credit, this will bring our total reportable operating segments to 5. Now this change will not be a simple pro forma exercise. It's much more fundamental. These are true segments with both operating and financial accountability, giving you added transparency on our business.

但在我們轉向問答之前，讓我快速更新一下我們的新財務報告。正如我們在 3 月份分享的那樣，從 2023 年第一季度開始，我們將擁有 3 個新業務部門：福特 Model e、福特 Blue 和福特 Pro，並且將不再報告合併的汽車部門。通過福特 Next（前身為 Mobility）和福特信貸，這將使我們的可報告經營部門總數達到 5 個。現在，這種變化將不是一個簡單的備考練習。它更為基本。這些是具有運營和財務責任的真正細分市場，為您增加了我們業務的透明度。

So to help you prepare for this change, we plan to hold a teach-in early next year prior to releasing our 2022 results. We will use our revised 2021 results as a template to reflect the new segments. As part of the teach-in, we also plan to cover business rationale, mechanics of the new reporting structure and how our earnings disclosure and our SEC filings will change. When we report our fourth quarter and our full year results for 2022, they will be based on our existing reportable segments, and we are targeting to also share at the same time 2022 results that are revised to reflect the new segments. And so if you have any questions about this, please don't hesitate to reach out to Lynn and the rest of the IR team.

因此，為了幫助您為這一變化做好準備，我們計劃在明年初舉行一次教學活動，然後再發布 2022 年的結果。我們將使用修訂後的 2021 年結果作為模板來反映新的細分市場。作為教學的一部分，我們還計劃涵蓋業務原理、新報告結構的機制以及我們的收益披露和我們的 SEC 文件將如何變化。當我們報告 2022 年第四季度和全年業績時，它們將基於我們現有的可報告部分，我們的目標是同時分享 2022 年經修訂以反映新部分的結果。因此，如果您對此有任何疑問，請隨時與 Lynn 和 IR 團隊的其他成員聯繫。

So that wraps up our prepared remarks. We'll use the balance of the time to address what's on your minds. Thank you. Operator, please open it up for questions.

這樣就結束了我們準備好的評論。我們將利用剩餘的時間來解決您的想法。謝謝你。接線員，請打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from John Murphy from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

I wanted to ask a somewhat mundane question first on the outlook and then get into some pricing secondarily. But first, John, when you look at it, the seasonality of Ford's earnings traditionally is higher in the first half, lower in the second half. There's timing of cost and volume that usually drive that. Why do you think it's going to be different this year? And I guess maybe one of the big things that might be developing as we get later this year into early next year is that raw mats seem like they may be easing and fading, but the price/mix opportunities seems like it will be pretty strong. So that might help late this year and early next year. But just curious if you can comment if there's some of that change in a seasonal pattern so we can be comfortable with our estimates in the second half or your outlook in the second half.

我想先問一個關於前景的有點世俗的問題，然後再談一些定價。但首先，約翰，當你看到它時，福特收益的季節性傳統上是上半年較高，下半年較低。成本和數量的時間安排通常會推動這一點。為什麼你認為今年會有所不同？而且我想，隨著今年晚些時候到明年初，我們可能正在發展的一件大事是原始墊子似乎正在放鬆和褪色，但價格/混合機會似乎會非常強大。因此，這可能會在今年年底和明年年初有所幫助。但只是好奇您是否可以評論季節性模式是否存在一些變化，以便我們對下半年的估計或下半年的前景感到滿意。

Yes. So John, it is different, right? Ever since we've had COVID and coming out of COVID, the patterns just haven't held. When you look at the second half versus the first half, I think that would be the best way to help kind of frame this up. We do see continued volume, mix and pricing being strong on a half-over-half basis. And of course, we do expect to see commodities improve a bit as well in the second half on a half-over-half basis.

是的。所以約翰，它是不同的，對吧？自從我們有了新冠病毒並從新冠病毒中走出來，這種模式就沒有成立。當您查看下半場與上半場的對比時，我認為這將是幫助構建這一點的最佳方式。我們確實看到持續的數量、組合和定價在一半以上的基礎上保持強勁。當然，我們確實預計下半年大宗商品也會有所改善，漲幅超過一半。

And so volume, pricing and mix, let's say, in the $3 billion range. Commodities could be as much as $0.5 billion. But the inflation that we're seeing, that's going to continue to run through. And we're seeing that across the board from material costs, freight, fuel costs, et cetera. So we see that continuing, and that's up, as I said in my remarks, versus what we had talked about at the end of the last quarter.

所以數量、定價和組合，比如說，在 30 億美元的範圍內。大宗商品可能高達 5 億美元。但我們所看到的通貨膨脹將繼續存在。我們從材料成本、運費、燃料成本等方面全面看到了這一點。因此，我們看到這種情況仍在繼續，正如我在講話中所說，與我們在上個季度末討論的內容相比，情況有所好轉。

And then, of course, FMCC is going to be down slightly half-over-half, let's say, $0.80 billion to $1 billion as they approach $3 billion for the year. We're also seeing headwinds in the second half, John, from currency, the dollar strengthening. And we have more revenue exposure overseas than we do costs. So we're going to see some of that happen as well.

然後，當然，FMCC 將略微下降一半以上，假設為 8 億至 10 億美元，因為它們今年接近 30 億美元。約翰，我們在下半年也看到了來自貨幣、美元走強的不利因素。而且我們在海外的收入敞口比我們的成本要多。所以我們也將看到其中的一些發生。

And then we're going to continue to invest in our growth, and that'll be an area of engineering. We'll also see increasing investments in connectivity and spending. And then, I guess, the last thing I would talk about just to make the half-over-half complete. We did have some onetime items come to us in the second quarter, roughly an insurance claim and a contract we renegotiated, which roughly would be maybe three-tenths, four-tenths of headwind. So that's basically how we frame up the half-over-half. And basically, what we're saying is that there'll be some headwinds and some tailwinds, but we're confident in our guidance of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion.

然後我們將繼續投資於我們的增長，這將是一個工程領域。我們還將看到對連接和支出的投資增加。然後，我想，我要談論的最後一件事只是為了使一半完成。我們確實在第二季度收到了一些一次性物品，大致是保險索賠和我們重新談判的合同，這大概是逆風的十分之三，十分之四。所以這基本上就是我們如何構建一半以上的框架。基本上，我們所說的是會有一些逆風和一些順風，但我們對 115 億至 125 億美元的指導充滿信心。

That's very helpful. And then, Jim, just on these higher trim levels or pseudo special additions, I mean there's Ford Raptor, I mean, the F-150 Raptor R, pretty great-looking truck. You guys put in the slide deck there, looking forward to driving that, hopefully, sometime soon. But it seems like there's a real opportunity in Ford Blue, but there might be in Model e for these high trim level special -- sort of special editions. I mean how much of an opportunity is there on mix go forward maybe in both divisions? And how do you think about going after that? Because that seems like that's something you could be a lot more sustainable than maybe just the supply/demand imbalance we have right now that's helping price.

這很有幫助。然後，吉姆，就這些更高的裝飾水平或偽特殊添加，我的意思是福特猛禽，我的意思是，F-150 猛禽 R，非常漂亮的卡車。你們把滑梯放在那裡，期待著駕駛它，希望不久的將來。但福特藍色似乎有一個真正的機會，但在 Model e 中可能會有這些高裝飾級別的特別版——某種特別版。我的意思是，在兩個部門中混合前進的機會有多少？你如何看待之後的事情？因為這似乎比我們現在的供需失衡更具可持續性，這有助於價格。

Thank you, John. We've always been really good on the truck side for those derivatives, but now our chances to expand that capability across all of our lineup. Ranger is a good example. We're launching it in Thailand. We just launched Raptor, Tremor. There's a lot we can do. Of course, Mustang is coming out. Maverick is our most affordable vehicle. You can only imagine the kind of things that we're cooking up in our design studio with Maverick. And then, of course, on what we really do well, Broncos, you can imagine high-end versions, all sorts of things. Everglades came out, it's very popular.

謝謝你，約翰。對於這些衍生產品，我們在卡車方面一直非常出色，但現在我們有機會將這種能力擴展到我們所有的陣容中。遊俠就是一個很好的例子。我們將在泰國推出它。我們剛剛推出了 Raptor，Tremor。我們可以做很多事情。當然，野馬要出來了。 Maverick 是我們最實惠的車輛。您只能想像我們與 Maverick 在我們的設計工作室中製作的那種東西。然後，當然，關於我們真正做得好的地方，野馬隊，你可以想像高端版本，各種各樣的東西。大沼澤地出來了，很受歡迎。

And we do agree our E side, we don't have to change the body to refresh Mach-E, for example. We are actually completely redoing in a good way our HMI and OTA-ing that to all of our EVs. But you can imagine with Mustang Mach-E all the cool things we could do. So -- and it is a sustainable advantage, and we're good at it.

而且我們確實同意我們的 E 方面，例如，我們不必改變身體來刷新 Mach-E。實際上，我們正在以一種很好的方式完全重做我們的 HMI，並將其 OTA 應用到我們所有的電動汽車上。但是您可以想像使用 Mustang Mach-E 可以做的所有很酷的事情。所以——這是一個可持續的優勢，我們很擅長。

The tension point for us, though, is complexity. Ford is way too complex. So as we do this, we have to bring our complexity down to get our bill of materials kind of in line with competition. It's great that we have all this pricing power forward. We do have a fresh lineup. We have lots of cool ideas. But we're not satisfied with that because we cannot just continue to build this complexity in our business. So as we add those derivatives, we're going to have to -- we are planning much less complexity in our Blue business. And that is a theme that will run through Blue for years to come.

然而，對我們來說，緊張點是複雜性。福特太複雜了。因此，當我們這樣做時，我們必須降低複雜性，以使我們的材料清單與競爭保持一致。很高興我們擁有所有這些定價權。我們確實有一個新的陣容。我們有很多很酷的想法。但我們對此並不滿意，因為我們不能繼續在我們的業務中建立這種複雜性。因此，當我們添加這些衍生產品時，我們將不得不——我們計劃在我們的 Blue 業務中降低複雜性。這是一個貫穿 Blue 未來幾年的主題。

Jim, if I could just follow up real quick on the Model e side to create a performance version of like the Mustang Mach-E might theoretically cost a lot less, but you might still be able to charge as much as you might on that delta on a Blue vehicle. Is that correct? And could we see sort of these specials or trim levels potentially garner even higher variable margin as we move into the Model e world? Is that a fair statement or not?

吉姆，如果我能在 Model e 方面快速跟進以創建類似 Mustang Mach-E 的性能版本，理論上可能會花費更少，但你仍然可以在那個 delta 上收取盡可能多的費用在藍色車輛上。那是對的嗎？當我們進入 Model e 世界時，我們能否看到這些特價或修剪級別可能獲得更高的可變利潤？這是一個公平的說法嗎？

I think the way we look at -- yes. Good question. The way we look at this, John, is the days are kind of over where you have to change the upper body to build a supercar or to build an off-road car like kind of days are over, like, we don't have to do that anymore with these digital products, with EV propulsion, with the motors, the software. We can really take our vehicles and make very different kind of vehicles off of the same body engineering. And that is a complete game changer for us in terms of capital intensity, i.e., lower.

我認為我們看待的方式——是的。好問題。我們看待這個的方式，約翰，你必須改變上半身來製造一輛超級跑車或製造一輛越野車的日子已經結束了，就像，我們沒有用這些數字產品、電動汽車推進裝置、電機和軟件來做到這一點。我們真的可以使用我們的車輛並使用相同的車身工程製造出截然不同的車輛。就資本密集度而言，這對我們來說是一個徹底的遊戲規則改變者，即更低。

And I'm really glad you brought that up because I try to emphasize this. Like we have to be really careful in our industry, and I'm constantly -- we are constantly talking about this as a leadership team. We cannot have the complexity of top hats that we do on our ICE business.

我真的很高興你提出這個問題，因為我試圖強調這一點。就像我們在我們的行業中必須非常小心一樣，而且我一直在 - 作為一個領導團隊，我們一直在談論這個問題。我們不能擁有我們在 ICE 業務上所做的大禮帽的複雜性。

We have an opportunity as we go digital with these EVs to simplify our body engineering and put the engineer where customers really care. And it's not a different vendor. It's software. It's a digital display technology. It's a self-driving system and the AV tech. And of course, it's going to be, some cases, more powerful motors.

當我們使用這些電動汽車實現數字化時，我們有機會簡化我們的車身工程並將工程師放在客戶真正關心的地方。這不是一個不同的供應商。是軟件。這是一種數字顯示技術。這是一個自動駕駛系統和 AV 技術。當然，在某些情況下，它會是更強大的電機。

The next question is from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Jim, the Bronco Raptor, so badass. I don't know if I put an order and now if I'll get it by the end of the decade, but maybe I'll try. Jim, this is one of the most positive Ford calls I can remember in a long, long time. Does Ford have too many people?

野馬猛禽吉姆，太壞了。我不知道我是否下了訂單，現在是否會在本世紀末得到它，但也許我會嘗試。吉姆，這是我在很長一段時間內記得的最積極的福特電話之一。福特人多嗎？

As I said in my comments, Adam, we absolutely have too many people in certain places, no doubt about it. And we have skills that don't work anymore. We -- and we have jobs that need to change. And we have lots of new work statements that we've never had before.

正如我在評論中所說，亞當，我們在某些地方絕對有太多人，這是毫無疑問的。我們擁有不再起作用的技能。我們——而且我們有需要改變的工作。我們有很多以前從未有過的新工作聲明。

We are literally virtually -- we are reshaping our company, like every part of our company. And on our ICE business, we want to simplify it. We want to make sure the skills we have and the work statements we have are as lean as possible. We know our costs are not competitive at Ford. But we are -- that's what I mean by we are not satisfied. But I just want to emphasize that in the past, at least in my career for 40 years, we kind of often and discriminately just taking the costs out. That's not what's happening at Ford now. This is a different kind of change where we're reshaping the company, reshaping skills, investing in new technologies and simplifying investments in others, i.e., spending less.

實際上，我們實際上是在重塑我們的公司，就像我們公司的每個部分一樣。在我們的 ICE 業務中，我們希望簡化它。我們希望確保我們擁有的技能和我們擁有的工作陳述盡可能精簡。我們知道我們的成本在福特沒有競爭力。但我們是——這就是我所說的我們不滿意的意思。但我只想強調，在過去，至少在我 40 年的職業生涯中，我們經常有區別地只是將成本計算在內。這不是福特現在正在發生的事情。這是一種不同的變化，我們正在重塑公司、重塑技能、投資新技術並簡化對他人的投資，即減少支出。

So -- and we have -- it's kind of the old adage. Yes, I think every company probably has too many people. I just -- we have to go do the workflows and decide how this works now going forward.

所以——我們有——這是一句古老的格言。是的，我認為每個公司可能都有太多人。我只是 - 我們必須去做工作流程並決定現在如何工作。

All right. Appreciate that, Jim. Just one follow-up on the dealers. They're having an amazing time. Their new gross margins have more than tripled, and they're making dealer grosses that are, in many cases, higher than what you're making on selling the product, right? Like they're making more money selling the product that you -- the margin you're making on actually making the product. And all they're doing is just watching the things come off a truck, and they're presold.

好的。欣賞這一點，吉姆。只是對經銷商的一項後續行動。他們正在度過一段美好的時光。他們的新毛利率增加了兩倍多，而且在許多情況下，他們使經銷商的毛利率高於您銷售產品時的毛利率，對嗎？就像他們賣你的產品賺了更多的錢——你實際生產產品的利潤。他們所做的只是看著東西從卡車上掉下來，然後就被預售了。

So I know you guys spent a huge amount of time on pricing at Ford. Is there anything you can do to help even the score a bit on price? Because when I ask the dealers why isn't Ford raising -- or your peers raising some of the invoice more, even they don't have a reason like we don't know why they're not doing it. And then they often say things that I don't believe, which is that you can't or you're not moving fast enough or the systems aren't there. So what are we missing?

所以我知道你們在福特的定價上花費了大量時間。你能做些什麼來幫助甚至在價格上打分嗎？因為當我問經銷商為什麼福特不提高 - 或者你的同行提高一些發票時，即使他們沒有像我們不知道他們為什麼不這樣做的理由。然後他們經常說我不相信的話，那就是你做不到，或者你行動不夠快，或者係統不存在。那麼我們缺少什麼？

Sure. So bottom line is we've taken a lot of pricing. You could see it in our numbers. And actually, we all watch this very carefully at Ford. What is the dealers retained margin versus MSRP? And I have to tell you that ours is one of the best in the industry, i.e., our pricing and the retained margin at MSRP are as close at Ford versus any other brands. There are others that are in different places.

當然。所以底線是我們已經採取了很多定價。你可以在我們的數字中看到它。實際上，我們在福特都非常仔細地觀察這一點。與廠商建議零售價相比，經銷商保留的利潤是多少？我必須告訴你，我們的產品是業內最好的產品之一，也就是說，我們的定價和廠商建議零售價的留存利潤率與福特相比與任何其他品牌都接近。還有其他人在不同的地方。

I think your question is actually bigger than that, which is we have ups and downs in our industry. And how is this going to -- how is our retailers going to shape as we change this company? And so -- and again, on the electric vehicles, dynamic pricing is very important for us because we went to an ordering system. And with an ordering system, you have the certainty of orders, but you have to also be responsive on price. I'm not going to get into the details, but we think we have a way out of that tension point or conundrum.

我認為您的問題實際上比這更大，我們的行業有起有落。這將如何——隨著我們改變這家公司，我們的零售商將如何塑造？所以——再一次，在電動汽車上，動態定價對我們來說非常重要，因為我們使用了一個訂購系統。使用訂購系統，您可以獲得訂單的確定性，但您還必須對價格做出響應。我不打算深入細節，但我們認為我們有辦法擺脫那個緊張點或難題。

On overall, how I see dealer margins, as we talk to our dealers and roll up our sleeves, is we need -- because I said our competitors are pure-play EVs and the Chinese that are absolutely coming. And that means we have to get this $2,000 out of our distribution cost to be competitive with them. And we think 1/3 of it is going to a low inventory model, not -- I'm not saying like 30-day supply or 50. I don't mean that kind of -- like the customer orders a vehicle, and then we ship the vehicle to the customer. That's what I mean by a low inventory model.

總體而言，當我們與經銷商交談並捲起袖子時，我如何看待經銷商的利潤率，這是我們需要的——因為我說我們的競爭對手是純電動汽車，而中國人絕對會來。這意味著我們必須從我們的分銷成本中拿出這 2,000 美元才能與他們競爭。我們認為其中 1/3 將用於低庫存模式，而不是 - 我不是說 30 天供應或 50 天。我不是說那種 - 就像客戶訂購車輛，並且然後我們將車輛運送給客戶。這就是我所說的低庫存模式。

We have to go to that. We think that's about -- worth maybe $600, $700 in our system. Another one is all the selling, SG&A and advertising costs. We have 3 tiers of marketing. We think that's another $600 a vehicle. We're going to simplify that. And we're going to just shift where the e-commerce platform that we don't have today -- all of our e-customers have a very predictable experience, whether they're in a dealership or in their bunny slippers, and they'll have a very simple, transparent, very easy purchase process. And we're going to invest.

我們必須這樣做。我們認為這在我們的系統中大約價值 600 美元、700 美元。另一個是所有的銷售、SG&A 和廣告費用。我們有3層營銷。我們認為這又是每輛車 600 美元。我們將簡化它。我們將改變我們今天沒有的電子商務平台——我們所有的電子客戶都有一個非常可預測的體驗，無論他們是在經銷商還是在他們的兔子拖鞋裡，他們'將有一個非常簡單、透明、非常容易的購買過程。我們將進行投資。

Our marketing model is going to be post purchase. That will be our differentiator, and that's where we'll invest. And I think that's a different play than the pure EV companies. So I see dealer margins still being very competitive, but they are going to shift. The makeup of those margins going to change. Does that make sense, Adam?

我們的營銷模式將是購買後。這將是我們的差異化因素，也是我們將投資的地方。我認為這與純電動汽車公司不同。所以我認為經銷商的利潤率仍然非常有競爭力，但它們將會發生變化。這些利潤的構成將發生變化。這有意義嗎，亞當？

It makes a lot of sense. Thanks, Jim.

這很有道理。謝謝，吉姆。

The next question will come from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

So pricing has been a massive tailwind, and it looks like mix is becoming pretty powerful now too. Can you just talk to us a little bit about the interplay between affordability and volume? Just especially in the environment that we're in right now and with still a lot of inflation on the horizon, do you think demand can return at this level of price? And are you willing to forgo volume to sustain contribution margins?

所以定價一直是一個巨大的順風，看起來混合現在也變得非常強大。你能和我們談談可負擔性和數量之間的相互作用嗎？尤其是在我們現在所處的環境中，並且仍然存在大量通貨膨脹，您認為需求可以在這個價格水平上恢復嗎？您是否願意放棄交易量來維持邊際貢獻？

Yes. Thanks, Rod. So we have seen strength in volume -- pricing due to the volume that we can produce as an industry and us at Ford relative to the demand that we're seeing out there. So that has been a tailwind. In the quarter, we did see quite a bit of a tailwind from mix as well.

是的。謝謝，羅德。因此，我們看到了數量上的優勢——定價是由於我們作為一個行業和我們在福特可以生產的數量相對於我們在那裡看到的需求。所以這是順風。在本季度，我們也確實看到了混合的相當大的順風。

Affordability is something that we keep in front of us all the time with the credit company, and we're very thoughtful about where it's headed from the standpoint to the consumer, what's affordable, et cetera. But we have not seen demand come off at this point. But we have -- as we increase volumes through the second half of the year, as some of the chip constraints ease and we see a better rate and flow, we do have provisioned in our second half incentives increasing as volumes come back. And we've always said that the relationship between volume and pricing is going to remain dynamic.

可負擔性是我們與信貸公司一直擺在我們面前的東西，我們非常考慮從消費者的角度來看它的發展方向，什麼是負擔得起的等等。但我們目前還沒有看到需求下降。但是我們有 - 隨著我們在下半年增加銷量，隨著一些芯片限制的緩解，我們看到更好的速率和流量，我們確實在下半年提供了隨著銷量回升而增加的激勵措施。我們一直說數量和定價之間的關係將保持動態。

And so I think what you'll see is as volume comes back, you will see some pricing get back. You will see prices come down some. Question for all of us is how are we going to manage stocks? How are we going to move to the build-to-order process? How are we going to change the dynamics and not have as much of a push system and have more of a natural demand system and fulfilling that demand on a timely basis? So I think that's the question for all of us, and we need to maintain discipline as we head into an environment where we could potentially see demand come off and/or we start to have higher supply, and therefore, prices will come well.

所以我認為你會看到隨著銷量的回升，你會看到一些定價回升。你會看到價格下降了一些。我們所有人的問題是我們將如何管理股票？我們將如何轉向按訂單生產流程？我們將如何改變動態，而不是擁有那麼多的推動系統，而是擁有更多的自然需求系統並及時滿足該需求？所以我認為這是我們所有人的問題，當我們進入一個可能會看到需求下降和/或我們開始有更多供應的環境時，我們需要保持紀律，因此價格會很好。

But remember, following up on what Adam just said in the dealer margins, we still have -- across the industry, dealer margins that need to come down first from a pricing standpoint, right? We did -- as we've talked about in the past, we took an action which reduced floor plan for the dealers, which was a form of pricing for us. But overall, it's still inflated. And I'd estimate somewhere between $1,300 to $1,700 of dealer margin compression is to come off first from a pricing standpoint.

但請記住，按照亞當剛才所說的經銷商利潤率，我們仍然有——在整個行業中，從定價的角度來看，經銷商利潤率需要首先下降，對吧？我們做到了——正如我們過去談到的那樣，我們採取了一項行動，減少了經銷商的平面圖，這對我們來說是一種定價形式。但總的來說，它仍然膨脹。而且我估計從定價的角度來看，經銷商的利潤率壓縮在 1,300 美元到 1,700 美元之間首先會出現。

That makes sense. And then just secondly, can you just provide any color you can on what's happening from a supply chain perspective? Any thoughts on whether this Europe natural gas situation is something that is a major concern for you? And then lastly, any detail on the $3 billion of cost inflation in North America. It looked like a large number. Was there anything unusual in that number?

那講得通。其次，您能否從供應鏈的角度為正在發生的事情提供任何顏色？關於歐洲天然氣形勢是否是您主要關注的問題，您有什麼想法嗎？最後，關於北美 30 億美元成本膨脹的任何細節。它看起來像一個很大的數字。這個數字有什麼不尋常的地方嗎？

No, there wasn't anything unusual, Rod. I'll start with that. It's across the board. It's in the areas you would expect, material cost going up. We're seeing increases in freight. It's just across the board, and it's driven by the inflationary pressures we're seeing across the board in the economy. Nothing unusual.

不，沒有什麼不尋常的，羅德。我將從那開始。這是全面的。它在你所期望的領域，材料成本上升。我們看到貨運量增加。這是全面的，它是由我們在經濟中全面看到的通脹壓力驅動的。沒有什麼不尋常的。

And on the supply chain, I'd to characterize it, I mean, chips are still an issue. Transparency is still an issue in the second quarter specifically. You know we had quite an issue in China with the Shanghai shutdown. And that affects -- that could have affected our North America manufacturing system. The team did a great job. We had a daily call. We worked every issue. We built a digital model of all our supply chain down to supply chain in, and it was really helpful. And we got through it.

在供應鏈上，我想描述一下，我的意思是，芯片仍然是一個問題。特別是在第二季度，透明度仍然是一個問題。你知道我們在上海的停工中遇到了很大的問題。這會影響 - 這可能會影響我們的北美製造系統。團隊做得很好。我們每天都有通話。我們處理了每一個問題。我們為我們所有的供應鏈建立了一個數字模型，一直到供應鏈，這真的很有幫助。我們度過了難關。

Like Roseanne Roseannadanna said, "If it's not one thing, it's another." It just feels like what's next. As far as we're planning everything we know could happen. The next possibility of the energy crisis in Europe, we played this out already. We've done our homework. We have about 550 active suppliers in what I would call the high-risk countries like Czech, Germany, Hungary, Austria and Slovakia. We think that the risk is between now and mid-'23 when they can manage through the energy issues. We have about 130 suppliers for our North America vehicle production in that 550 list, and we now have a 30-day buffer stock. So we are doing everything we can with the things we know.

就像 Roseanne Roseannadanna 所說，“如果不是一件事，那就是另一件事。”只是感覺接下來會發生什麼。就我們計劃而言，我們所知道的一切都可能發生。歐洲能源危機的下一個可能性，我們已經玩過了。我們已經完成了功課。我們在捷克、德國、匈牙利、奧地利和斯洛伐克等高風險國家擁有大約 550 家活躍的供應商。我們認為從現在到 23 年中期之間的風險是他們可以解決能源問題的時候。在這 550 家名單中，我們有大約 130 家北美汽車生產供應商，我們現在有 30 天的緩衝庫存。因此，我們正在盡我們所能利用我們所知道的東西。

On the supply chain outside of -- we have labor shortages and all sorts of [moving]. The suppliers have been working nonstop during COVID, so machine maintenance and a lot of other things. We see the output of the stress in the supply chain. And obviously, their costs have gone up too. And we're working through all of that with our suppliers. So I think we're well prepared for the things we can predict, but it's always a new day.

在供應鏈之外——我們有勞動力短缺和各種各樣的[搬家]。供應商在 COVID 期間一直在不停地工作，因此機器維護和許多其他事情。我們看到了供應鏈中壓力的輸出。顯然，他們的成本也上升了。我們正在與我們的供應商一起解決所有這些問題。所以我認為我們已經為我們可以預測的事情做好了充分的準備，但這總是新的一天。

The next question will be from Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

My first question, I was hoping to ask you about the topic of EV profitability. So Jim, during the quarter at an investor conference, I think you essentially gave some pretty good color on where Ford is standing right now. And I think you spoke about the cost of the Mach-E being a disadvantage of $25,000 to $27,000 versus a similarly Continental or Edge. So I guess my questions would be, how do you plan on offsetting this over time? I guess what is the strategy going forward? And should we worry about large losses from EVs in the near term over the next few years as the EV volumes increase materially over the next few years?

我的第一個問題，我想問你關於電動汽車盈利能力的話題。所以吉姆，在本季度的一次投資者會議上，我認為你基本上對福特目前的立場給出了一些很好的看法。而且我認為您談到 Mach-E 的成本是 25,000 到 27,000 美元與類似的大陸或 Edge 相比的劣勢。所以我想我的問題是，你打算如何隨著時間的推移來抵消這個？我猜接下來的策略是什麼？隨著未來幾年電動汽車銷量的大幅增長，我們是否應該擔心未來幾年電動汽車會在短期內出現巨額虧損？

Well, thank you, Emmanuel. I will say there's not going to be a lot of guesswork at Ford because we will financially report our businesses independently of each other. So it will be all out there for everyone to see. I don't know about others. But at Ford, it will be extremely transparent. I'm not going to get into specifics because I think this is such a material topic. We need to spend time on it. We can't rush to this.

嗯，謝謝你，伊曼紐爾。我會說福特不會有太多的猜測，因為我們將相互獨立地財務報告我們的業務。所以這一切都將在那裡讓每個人都看到。我不知道其他人。但在福特，它將非常透明。我不打算詳細說明，因為我認為這是一個非常重要的話題。我們需要花時間在這上面。我們不能急於做到這一點。

I will tell you that in the quarter, our announcement for LFP bringing that to North America is a big deal from a profit standpoint. That is a very important chemistry on our road map for profitability. We're going to be installing 60 -- 40-gigawatt hours in North America. That's a lot. And we are not going to wait until that installed capacity is here. We're going to be bringing those batteries to our highest volume vehicles like next year. So that's one, but there's distribution. There's the size of your battery. You're engineering for low labor content. And I just don't think we're going to do justice such as series and important topic in the earnings call. But you can expect a lot of engagement with Ford on this, and this is an incredibly important focus. This is one of the reasons why we created Model e, to be laser-focused on profitable electric vehicles. And again, you'll see it all.

我會告訴你，在本季度，從利潤的角度來看，我們宣布 LFP 將其帶到北美是一件大事。這是我們盈利路線圖上非常重要的化學反應。我們將在北美安裝 60 - 40 吉瓦時。好多啊。我們不會等到裝機容量來了。我們將把這些電池帶到我們最大容量的車輛上，比如明年。所以這是一個，但有分佈。有你的電池大小。您正在為低勞動力含量進行工程設計。而且我只是不認為我們會在財報電話會議中公正地處理諸如係列和重要主題之類的事情。但是你可以期待與福特在這方面的大量接觸，這是一個非常重要的焦點。這就是我們創建 Model e 的原因之一，它專注於盈利的電動汽車。再一次，你會看到這一切。

John, do you want to add any comments on the segmentation reporting?

約翰，您想對細分報告添加任何評論嗎？

No. Yes, in segmentation reporting, you'll see exactly where we're at between the 5 businesses. And Emmanuel, we know how important that is. So when we have our Capital Markets Day early next year, we'll unpack that in more detail, as Jim said, where we can spend some time on it and go through it and give it due justice.

不。是的，在細分報告中，您會確切地看到我們在 5 家企業之間所處的位置。伊曼紐爾，我們知道這有多重要。因此，當我們在明年初舉行資本市場日時，我們將更詳細地解開這一點，正如吉姆所說，我們可以花一些時間在它上面並通過它並給予它應有的正義。

Okay. That's fair. So let me ask you a separate topic then. So I think one of the hardest things for investors here is to try to perform a sensitivity for a downturn scenario as consumer comes under more pressure, risk of recession increase. What could that do for not so much volume because, obviously, we've been -- auto has been operating at low volume for a while, supply-driven, but pricing. Any thoughts you could share with us either based on history or in the current context on how would you go about flexing down vehicle pricing in a downturn scenario?

好的。這還算公平。所以讓我問你一個單獨的話題。因此，我認為對於投資者而言，最困難的事情之一是嘗試對經濟低迷情景進行敏感度，因為消費者面臨更大的壓力，經濟衰退的風險增加。這對沒有那麼多的銷量有什麼影響，因為很明顯，我們一直在——汽車一直在低銷量運營一段時間，供應驅動，但定價。您可以根據歷史或當前情況與我們分享任何想法，即在經濟低迷的情況下您將如何降低汽車價格？

Yes. So Emmanuel, we spent a lot of time on this, as you would expect us to be doing, modeling scenarios, looking at what that means for the business, looking at what we should be doing today to get out in front of any these types of issues if a recession were to come. But the way we're thinking about it is if you step back and look at where we're at today relative to where we've been as a company, heading into any -- what could be a potential downturn, right, we're in much better shape. You mentioned it from a demand standpoint. We have 3 years of pent-up demand, and we have a very strong product lineup. And so that's a positive.

是的。所以Emmanuel，我們花了很多時間在這方面，正如你所期望的那樣，建模場景，看看這對業務意味著什麼，看看我們今天應該做什麼才能在任何這些類型面前脫穎而出如果經濟衰退來了，問題就來了。但我們考慮的方式是，如果你退後一步，看看我們今天相對於我們作為一家公司所處的位置，進入任何可能的低迷時期，對，我們恢復得更好。你從需求的角度提到了它。我們有 3 年被壓抑的需求，我們擁有非常強大的產品陣容。所以這是積極的。

We're also at a point right now where incentives are low, right? They're in the single digits versus what normally, at this point in the cycle, we'd probably be in high teens. And so of course, as volume or demand comes off, there will be some pricing that will need to be given back. And that's a bit of a release valve, if you will. But it's really important for us to be thoughtful about that, not only Ford, but as an industry.

我們現在也處於激勵低的地步，對吧？它們是個位數，而通常情況下，在這個週期的這一點上，我們可能會處於高十幾歲。因此，當然，隨著數量或需求的減少，將需要返還一些定價。如果你願意的話，這有點像一個釋放閥。但對我們來說，考慮到這一點真的很重要，不僅是福特，而且作為一個行業。

And then the other thing I would say, and I mentioned it in my remarks, our business is very different than what it was in the past. Our ICE product, clearly, it's more -- our lineup is more profitable as we've exited unprofitable vehicles. But we've de-risked the overall business. We restructured our markets overseas. And I think a great proof point for that is the fact that between '18 and '21, we burned through $9 billion of free cash flow overseas. We're not in that position now. And we do expect this year, we're projecting that our overseas markets will be free cash flow positive. So we're just in a completely different position. We're modeling it. We're looking at it. We're getting out in front of things, as Jim said, that we can today. But it's a new day every day. But that's how we're thinking about it. We're clear-eyed. We understand what we're facing. We understand what could potentially be in front of us, and now we need to work it.

然後我要說的另一件事，我在講話中提到過，我們的業務與過去有很大不同。我們的 ICE 產品，顯然，它更多——我們的陣容更有利可圖，因為我們已經退出了無利可圖的車輛。但我們已經降低了整體業務的風險。我們重組了海外市場。我認為一個很好的證明點是，在 18 到 21 年間，我們在海外消耗了 90 億美元的自由現金流。我們現在不在那個位置。我們確實預計今年，我們預計我們的海外市場將是自由現金流為正的。所以我們只是處於一個完全不同的位置。我們正在對其進行建模。我們正在研究它。正如吉姆所說，我們今天可以做到這一點。但每天都是新的一天。但這就是我們正在考慮的方式。我們很清楚。我們了解我們所面臨的。我們了解擺在我們面前的可能是什麼，現在我們需要努力。

And the next question will be from Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

I just wanted to circle back to the first question going from the first half to the second half. The outlook dividend point is about flat. You highlighted, I think, (inaudible) volume. I think the commodities is over $1 billion in (inaudible) Q1 and Q2. You highlighted about $1 billion of Ford Credit sort of -- that's about $3 billion is good news. You didn't quantify the bad news. And currency, it doesn't seem like something to be that material. Any sort of framing it, is that $3 billion inflationary cost predominantly in the second half? Is that (inaudible)?

我只是想回到從上半場到下半場的第一個問題。前景紅利點基本持平。我認為，您強調了（聽不清）音量。我認為商品在第一季度和第二季度（聽不清）超過 10 億美元。你強調了大約 10 億美元的福特信貸——大約 30 億美元是個好消息。你沒有量化壞消息。而貨幣，看起來不像是那種物質。無論如何，這 30 億美元的通脹成本主要是在下半年嗎？是（聽不清）嗎？

Yes. So Colin, let me clarify. It's really hard to hear you. It's quite static-y. But Ford Credit will be about $3 billion in total profits for the year. So that'll be down half-over-half. So that's a headwind. And the inflationary costs on a half-over-half are a headwind. And so when you walk through it, yes, there will be some volume. We said that volumes in the second half will be up roughly in the low 20 percentage range versus the first half. And so you've got some mix improvement as well. So volume and pricing and mix are the tailwinds. A little bit of a tailwind on commodities, but the headwinds are FMCC profits. They'll be down. We've got the inflationary pressures we talked about, will be an increase in the second half. We also have exchange that's hitting us in the second half relative to the first half. So that's a headwind as well. And then we had some one-timers in the second quarter that aren't going to repeat.

是的。所以科林，讓我澄清一下。真的很難聽到你的聲音。這是相當靜態的。但福特信貸今年的總利潤將約為 30 億美元。所以這將下降一半以上。所以這是一個逆風。一半以上的通脹成本是不利因素。所以當你走過它時，是的，會有一些音量。我們說下半年的交易量將比上半年增長大約 20 個百分點。所以你也得到了一些混合改進。因此，數量、定價和組合是順風。對大宗商品有一點順風，但逆風是 FMCC 的利潤。他們會倒下的。我們已經得到了我們談到的通脹壓力，將在下半年增加。相對於上半場，下半場我們也有交流。所以這也是一個逆風。然後我們在第二季度有一些一次性的，不會重複。

And of course, we're going to continue to invest in the business. So there's going to be spending-related costs. There's going to be connectivity costs that will be increasing as well as we invest. So those are the puts and takes. Those are the tailwinds and the headwinds as you look at it from a half-over-half basis. And I hope that helps clarify things.

當然，我們將繼續投資該業務。所以會有與支出相關的成本。隨著我們的投資，連接成本將會增加。所以這些是投入和投入。從一半以上的角度來看，這些是順風和逆風。我希望這有助於澄清事情。

Okay. And to follow up, I know you clearly are going to give more details on the EV perspective and how you're going to assess things. But you're talking a pretty dramatic increase in raw material costs. I think even in your comments, you indicated that only about 50% of the materials are going to be available to produce all the EV targets, which kind of would imply that prices of these raw materials would actually remain high. Should you be thinking about pulling back on some of the EV investments if the economics at this point are unclear?

好的。為了跟進，我知道您顯然將提供更多關於 EV 觀點以及您將如何評估事物的細節。但是你說的是原材料成本的急劇增加。我認為即使在您的評論中，您也表示只有大約 50% 的材料可用於生產所有 EV 目標，這意味著這些原材料的價格實際上仍將居高不下。如果此時的經濟狀況不明朗，您是否應該考慮撤回一些電動汽車投資？

No. No. We don't plan on pulling back. If anything, the first generation of products has inspired us to go faster.

不，不。我們不打算撤退。如果有的話，第一代產品激勵我們走得更快。

I think I would just emphasize that how we look at this change in our industry, it's not a change in propulsion. It's much bigger than that. It's a change to a vehicle whose differentiation will increasingly be software that you ship to the vehicle. We now have real experience on the first shippable software to these cars. The first is ADAS, for sure. And the second one for us is Ford Pro. We're shipping telematics to the customer, driver coaching, energy management. Our attach rate for charging now on our E-Transits, where we're 95% share, it's like 30-plus percent. So there are a lot of services connected to these vehicles because of the software. And that's a really big revenue opportunity for us.

我想我只想強調一下，我們如何看待我們行業的這種變化，而不是推進力的變化。它比那大得多。這是對車輛的一種改變，其差異化將越來越多地是您運送到車輛的軟件。我們現在對這些汽車的第一個可交付軟件有了真正的經驗。首先是ADAS，當然。對我們來說第二個是福特 Pro。我們正在向客戶提供遠程信息處理、駕駛員指導和能源管理。我們現在在 E-Transits 上的收費附加率，我們佔 95% 的份額，大約是 30% 以上。因此，由於軟件的原因，有很多服務與這些車輛相關聯。這對我們來說是一個非常大的收入機會。

When you talk about the base walk to 8%, we're not going to -- as John said, we're not going to go through that here, but I will tell you that LFP has a dramatically different exposure to raw materials than an NCM sell. Like there's no nickel in it. So the chemistry strategy for the company and diversifying that is a very key part of our profitability walk.

當你談到基本步行到 8% 時，我們不會——正如約翰所說，我們不會在這裡討論這個問題，但我會告訴你，LFP 對原材料的接觸與NCM 賣出。就像裡面沒有鎳一樣。因此，公司的化學戰略和多樣化是我們盈利能力的一個非常關鍵的部分。

But I think the most important thing to think about is not that we're investing or not in electric cars. We're investing in digital products, and we can keep them longer because we don't have to upgrade the upper bodies because they're software-enabled vehicles. There's so much we can do to change the profit profile of these vehicles. The biggest thing we have to solve for in all of that is the battery cost, and we can't wait to take you through all of that.

但我認為要考慮的最重要的事情不是我們是否投資於電動汽車。我們正在投資數字產品，我們可以將它們保留更長時間，因為我們不必升級上半身，因為它們是支持軟件的車輛。我們可以做很多事情來改變這些車輛的利潤狀況。在所有這些中，我們必須解決的最大問題是電池成本，我們迫不及待地要帶您完成所有這些。

And the next question will come from Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

The -- I just want to -- John, can we just go over -- so $3 billion of other inflationary costs, it's $2 billion higher than before. Are you -- I know you're working to offset it. Are you assuming you offset that delta in the guide? And maybe you could just let us know how much of that was already incurred in the first half.

- 我只是想 - 約翰，我們可以回顧一下 - 30 億美元的其他通脹成本，比以前高 20 億美元。你是——我知道你正在努力抵消它。您是否假設您在指南中抵消了該增量？也許你可以讓我們知道上半年已經發生了多少。

So we had -- it's $1 billion higher than what we had talked about previously, Joe. So we're looking at about $3 billion for the year, and that's part of what we're doing. We're working to offset those inflationary costs, and that's something that we need to continue to work through. We're not all the way there, of course, but we're working on it, and we do have the rest of the year to go, and it is a significant focus of our team, as we've talked about. But the cost efforts are a significant focus of the team as we remake the company in Ford+. So that's a really important part of what we're doing. And so it's $3 billion for the year. We had said $2 billion. We've seen about another $1 billion come through, and it's across the board.

所以我們有 - 這比我們之前談到的高出 10 億美元，喬。所以我們今年的目標是大約 30 億美元，這就是我們正在做的事情的一部分。我們正在努力抵消這些通脹成本，這是我們需要繼續努力的事情。當然，我們並不是一路走來，但我們正在努力，我們確實還有今年剩下的時間，這是我們團隊的一個重要關注點，正如我們已經談到的那樣。但是，當我們在 Ford+ 中改造公司時，成本努力是團隊的一個重要關注點。所以這是我們正在做的一個非常重要的部分。因此，這一年是 30 億美元。我們說過 20 億美元。我們已經看到另外 10 億美元通過，而且是全面的。

Okay. The second question is just on Ford Credit. So you're pointing to a lower second half, which, if you annualize that, would get you to something in the low 2s. Is that a good base to think about next year and go forward? Because if we look at the pretax ROE in this business, it's been well above average, and I think we understand why there's been some unusual circumstances. But is that the right way that you're thinking about it that to return to sort of more normal or historical returns? Or is there anything structural under -- in fact, Ford Credit that's changed the profitability profile?

好的。第二個問題是關於福特信貸的。因此，您指向的是較低的下半年，如果您將其年度化，您將獲得較低的 2 秒。這是一個很好的基礎來考慮明年並繼續前進嗎？因為如果我們看一下這個業務的稅前 ROE，它遠高於平均水平，我認為我們理解為什麼會出現一些不尋常的情況。但是，這是您考慮恢復到更正常或歷史回報的正確方式嗎？或者有什麼結構性的東西——事實上，福特信貸改變了盈利狀況？

Joe, this is Marion here. Thanks for the question. You're thinking about it correctly. So if you go back to pre-COVID, and balance sheet was quite a bit larger, we were at about $145 billion at that time. We were at a run rate of about $2.5 billion, $2.6 billion of EBT. And so that was the normal level. Our balance sheet is somewhat smaller now. And so I think what you're seeing is a more normalized level of profits. We're back at our pre-COVID reserve level. We're not releasing reserves and as it relates to lease residuals, that's pretty much worked its way through its book. So you're seeing that more normal performance.

喬，這裡是馬里恩。謝謝你的問題。你想得很對。因此，如果你回到 COVID 之前，資產負債表要大得多，那時我們的資產約為 1450 億美元。我們的運行速度約為 25 億美元，EBT 為 26 億美元。所以這是正常水平。我們的資產負債表現在有點小了。所以我認為你看到的是更正常化的利潤水平。我們回到了 COVID 之前的儲備水平。我們沒有釋放準備金，因為它與租賃剩餘物有關，這在其賬簿中幾乎已經奏效。所以你會看到更正常的表現。

And our final question of today will come from James Picariello from Exane PNB Paribas.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自 Exane PNB Paribas 的 James Picariello。

Just for commodities, at current spot rates, just as a theoretical exercise, right, if we take into account the lagging effect to your P&L, can you just think about maybe directionally just what commodities -- what the commodities impact would look like for next year at current spot rates?

就大宗商品而言，以目前的即期匯率，只是作為一個理論練習，對，如果我們考慮到對您的損益表的滯後影響，您是否可以直接考慮一下什麼商品——商品對接下來的影響會是什麼樣子以當前即期匯率計算的年份？

Yes. I think we do see it coming off some. Part of what complicates the commodity situation is as we go through in a year, we lock into contracts, and they roll. That protects us on the [upfront] when prices are increasing some, but it also has a lag effect when prices are coming down some. And so we'll have to deal with that as we run through the year as well.

是的。我認為我們確實看到它有所下降。使大宗商品形勢複雜化的部分原因是，我們在一年中經歷了一些合同，然後它們就會滾動。當價格上漲一些時，這可以在[前期]上保護我們，但當價格下跌一些時，它也會產生滯後效應。因此，我們也必須在這一年中處理這個問題。

And so I think, really, it's going to depend on what happens with the overall macroeconomic environment. If we do see us tripping into more of a recessionary period, we should see those fall quicker like we have in the past. If not, I think that they'll come down more moderately. So we're planning and looking at both of those scenarios from a spot standpoint. It is good news as we roll through next year, but you can't just take that spot good news and roll it through everything because we do have contracts that were locked into on a rolling basis through the year.

所以我認為，真的，這將取決於整體宏觀經濟環境會發生什麼。如果我們確實看到我們陷入了更多的衰退時期，我們應該會看到那些衰退得更快，就像我們過去一樣。如果不是，我認為他們會更溫和地下降。因此，我們正在計劃並從現場的角度審視這兩種情況。這是我們明年推出的好消息，但你不能只是抓住那個好消息並將其推出所有內容，因為我們確實有全年滾動鎖定的合同。

Okay. Understood. And then just with respect to the cadence for the second half, I mean, how should we be thinking about the quarterly volume -- the volume ramp in the back half? And can you provide color on Ford's progress in shipping the [unbilled] inventory, I think, totaled 53,000 entering the quarter?

好的。明白了。然後就下半年的節奏而言，我的意思是，我們應該如何考慮季度交易量——後半部分的交易量增長？您能否提供福特在運送[未開票]庫存方面的進展情況，我認為，進入本季度的庫存總數為 53,000？

Yes. So 53,000 entering the quarter. The team did a good job on the drawdown. We're down to 18,000 at the end of the quarter, and we'll work to get those out over the second half of the year as we can free up the chips that impacted us.

是的。因此，本季度有 53,000 人進入。球隊在縮編方面做得很好。到本季度末，我們的數量已降至 18,000，我們將在下半年努力解決這些問題，因為我們可以釋放影響我們的籌碼。

I think when you look at the volumes, in the second quarter, we saw an increase in volumes in North America, which helped drive the strong performance for North America. When you look at the second half, as we said, volumes would be up in the low 20% range compared with the first half. But that volume growth -- there's greater volume growth in the overseas markets in the second half than in North America. We have the Ranger launching in IMG. We have volume in the second half growing at a quicker rate in Europe. And then, of course, China was significantly depressed from a volume standpoint in the second quarter due to the shutdown. And so that's what will be happening from a standpoint.

我認為，當您查看第二季度的銷量時，我們看到北美的銷量有所增加，這有助於推動北美的強勁表現。正如我們所說，當您查看下半年時，與上半年相比，交易量將在 20% 的較低範圍內增長。但這種銷量增長——下半年海外市場的銷量增長要高於北美。我們在 IMG 中推出了 Ranger。我們下半年的銷量在歐洲以更快的速度增長。然後，當然，由於停工，從第二季度的銷量角度來看，中國明顯低迷。這就是從一個角度來看將會發生的事情。

But when you look at the volumes for Q3, they'll be lower than they will be in Q4 because in Q4, we should see the rate fall, the chips improve as we go through the third quarter into the fourth quarter. So that's how the volume is framing up in the second half relative to the first half, and then the walk from Q2 into Q3. So volume and mix in Q3 -- Q3 is going to be less than Q2, right? It's not going to be as strong as Q2. We have a couple of things hitting us in Q3. Volume and mix, most of the volume growth in Q3 relative to Q2 is going to be in Europe and China.

但是，當您查看第三季度的交易量時，它們將低於第四季度的水平，因為在第四季度，我們應該會看到比率下降，隨著我們從第三季度到第四季度，籌碼會有所改善。所以這就是下半年相對於上半年的交易量是如何形成的，然後是從第二季度到第三季度。所以第三季度的銷量和混合——第三季度會少於第二季度，對吧？它不會像第二季度那麼強勁。我們在第三季度遇到了一些事情。數量和組合，第三季度相對於第二季度的大部分銷量增長將來自歐洲和中國。

And then we still have commodity costs hitting us, and we're investing in connectivity. And our spending will -- in the third quarter, Ford Credit, of course, as the second half is lower than the first half. You see that come through in the third quarter. And then we have the nonrepeat of the one-timers I talked about in the second quarter. So third quarter will be down compared to the second quarter. Volume increases will be overseas. And then as we get to the fourth quarter, volume in the fourth quarter on a sequential basis will be better than the third quarter.

然後我們仍然面臨商品成本的影響，我們正在投資連接性。我們的支出將——在第三季度，福特信貸，當然，因為下半年低於上半年。您會在第三季度看到這一點。然後我們有我在第二季度談到的一次性的不重複。所以第三季度會比第二季度下降。銷量增長將來自海外。然後到第四季度，第四季度的連續銷量將好於第三季度。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Ford Motor Company Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Take care.

女士們先生們，福特汽車公司 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。小心。