福特汽車 (F) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Gary, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天。我的名字是加里，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎您參加福特汽車公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。

Thanks, Gary. Welcome to Ford Motor Company's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me today are Jim Farley, our President and CEO; and John Lawler, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A are Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit; and Doug Field, Chief Advanced Product Development and Technology Officer for Ford Model e.

謝謝，加里。歡迎來到福特汽車公司 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Farley；和我們的首席財務官 John Lawler。 Ford Credit 首席執行官 Marion Harris 也加入了我們的問答環節； Doug Field，福特 Model e 的首席高級產品開發和技術官。

Today's discussions include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論包括一些非公認會計原則的參考。這些與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則措施相一致。您可以在 sharepoint.ford.com 上找到該套牌以及我們的其他收益材料和其他重要內容。

Today's discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 23.

今天的討論還包括關於我們預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。第 23 頁列出了可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素。

Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis, and product mix is volume weighted.

除非另有說明，否則所有比較均為同比。公司息稅前利潤、每股收益和自由現金流是在調整後的基礎上計算的，產品組合是體積加權的。

Looking at our IR calendar, we have 2 upcoming engagements. Tomorrow, Bank of America will host a fireside chat with John Lawler and Lisa Drake, our VP of EV Industrialization and Manufacturing Engineering for Ford Model e. And on November 7, tech analyst, Tony Sacconaghi, will host a fireside chat with Doug Field at the AllianceBernstein's Electric Revolution Conference in London.

查看我們的 IR 日曆，我們有 2 個即將到來的約會。明天，美國銀行將與 John Lawler 和福特 Model e 電動汽車工業化和製造工程副總裁 Lisa Drake 進行爐邊談話。 11 月 7 日，技術分析師 Tony Sacconaghi 將在倫敦的 AllianceBernstein 電氣革命會議上與 Doug Field 進行爐邊談話。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim Farley.

現在我將把電話轉給 Jim Farley。

Thank you, Lynn. Hi, everyone. We really appreciate you being with us today. We introduced the Ford+ plan for growth and value creation 2 years ago, and the investment thesis have 3 drivers: leveraging our iconic vehicles, our strengths, both geographically and nameplates; number two, add to that, integrated hardware, software and connectivity into those vehicles; and then expand the total addressable market and unlocking value with conquest EVs, new commercial vehicles, connected services and physical services as well as mobility. So today, I'd like to share a progress report on Ford's transformation, of course, update you on our autonomy strategy and our announcement and, of course, recap the quarter.

謝謝你，林恩。大家好。我們非常感謝您今天與我們在一起。我們在 2 年前推出了 Ford+ 增長和價值創造計劃，投資論點有 3 個驅動力：利用我們的標誌性車輛、我們在地理和銘牌方面的優勢；第二，除此之外，將硬件、軟件和連接性集成到這些車輛中；然後通過征服電動汽車、新型商用車、互聯服務和物理服務以及移動性來擴大整個潛在市場並釋放價值。所以今天，我想分享一份關於福特轉型的進展報告，當然，更新我們的自主戰略和我們的公告，當然，回顧一下這個季度。

Our ambition to be the leader in EV is already taking shape. In our home market, Ford Model e is now -- has now had incredible successful launch of 3 products. They're now in scaling F-150 Lightning, Mach-E and E-Transit. And each are attracting, interesting for us, almost all new customers. So this is growth. We're now the #2 electric brand in the U.S., and we're just beginning with our scaling.

我們成為電動汽車領導者的雄心已經初具規模。在我們的本土市場，福特 Model e 現在已經成功推出了 3 款令人難以置信的產品。他們現在正在擴展 F-150 Lightning、Mach-E 和 E-Transit。每一個都吸引著我們感興趣的幾乎所有新客戶。所以這就是成長。我們現在是美國排名第二的電動品牌，而且我們才剛剛開始擴大規模。

Our decision to create Blue for both ICE and hybrid vehicles has focused and energized our team to leverage what we do best at Ford. We have launched a string of hits that our products -- our customers not only love but have lined up to buy. And we have so many more exciting products to come.

我們為 ICE 和混合動力汽車打造 Blue 的決定使我們的團隊集中精力並激勵我們利用我們在福特最擅長的方面。我們推出了一系列產品，我們的客戶不僅喜歡而且排隊購買。我們還有更多令人興奮的產品即將推出。

We have made tough capital allocation and restructuring decisions like the one today, particularly in South America and our international market groups like India. And our results and cash flow you could see in our results have improved dramatically. Our balance sheet remains strong. We ended the quarter with nearly $50 billion in liquidity, even as we accelerate investments in connectivity and electrification.

我們已經做出了像今天這樣艱難的資本分配和重組決定，特別是在南美和我們的國際市場集團，如印度。您可以在我們的業績中看到我們的業績和現金流量已顯著改善。我們的資產負債表依然強勁。我們在本季度結束時擁有近 500 億美元的流動性，儘管我們加快了對連接和電氣化的投資。

And what is perhaps the biggest untold story at Ford, we've successfully recruited a roster of an incredible talent from some of the world's best technology companies who are here to ship product and are supercharging our ability to design that software-defined vehicle and, of course, the software and services that go into those vehicles for the future. At the same token and at the same time, we have still so much work ahead. Clearly, we need to continue to improve our competitiveness, not just on quality, but on cost and supply chain management.

福特最大的不為人知的故事可能是，我們已經成功地從一些世界上最好的技術公司招募了一批令人難以置信的人才，他們來這裡運送產品並增強我們設計軟件定義車輛的能力，並且，當然，未來這些車輛中的軟件和服務。同時，我們還有很多工作要做。顯然，我們需要繼續提高我們的競爭力，不僅在質量方面，而且在成本和供應鏈管理方面。

And our performance in China and Europe is not nearly as healthy as we'd like it to be. I can't overstate the sense of urgency we have to address these critical operating areas. I look forward to updating you on future calls.

而且我們在中國和歐洲的表現並不像我們希望的那樣健康。我不能誇大我們必須解決這些關鍵運營領域的緊迫感。我期待在未來的電話中更新您的信息。

Now I'd like to share an important strategic shift in our autonomous vehicle strategy. 5 years ago, we committed to invest $1 billion in Argo AI to develop autonomous Level 4 technology. In 2020, we completed the transaction that resulted in Ford and VW both owning the majority of Argo at equal levels. We still believe in Level 4 autonomy that it will have a big impact on our business of moving people.

現在，我想分享一下我們自動駕駛汽車戰略中的一個重要戰略轉變。 5 年前，我們承諾在 Argo AI 上投資 10 億美元，以開發自主 4 級技術。 2020 年，我們完成了交易，導致福特和大眾都以同等水平擁有 Argo 的大部分股權。我們仍然相信 4 級自治，它將對我們的人員流動業務產生重大影響。

We've learned though in our partnership with Argo and after our own internal investments that we will have a very long road. It's estimated that more than $100 billion has been invested in the promise of Level 4 autonomy, and yet no one has defined a profitable business model at scale. Based on the change in this outlook and our increasing promise and focus on Level 2+ and Level 3 autonomy, we've decided to wind down the Argo business and impair the investment. We're working closely with Argo and VW on all the details.

我們在與 Argo 的合作中以及在我們自己的內部投資之後了解到，我們將有很長的路要走。據估計，已經有超過 1000 億美元的投資用於實現 4 級自治的承諾，但沒有人定義大規模的盈利商業模式。基於這種前景的變化以及我們對 2+ 級和 3 級自主權的承諾和關注，我們決定結束 Argo 業務並削弱投資。我們正在與 Argo 和大眾在所有細節上密切合作。

But here's what I want to focus on. Advancing Level 2 hardware and software beyond what BlueCruise can do today and ultimately enabling our customers to travel in very large ODDs, or operating domains, with their eyes off the road will give them back the single most valuable commodity in our modern lives, time. This has become mission-critical for us at Ford. Ford has deployed BlueCruise on many vehicles across hundreds of thousands of Blue Zone miles. We have strong technology partners working alongside us. And now we're going to bring in several hundred people from Argo, a brilliant collection of minds, who've done a great job, who have done wonderful work in the L4 space, but their job and mission now is to help us create a differentiated Level 4 BlueCruise system.

但這就是我想要關注的。將 2 級硬件和軟件推進到 BlueCruise 今天所能做的範圍之外，並最終使我們的客戶能夠在非常大的 ODD 或操作域中旅行，而他們的視線不會離開道路，這將使他們回到我們現代生活中最有價值的單一商品，時間。這已成為我們福特的關鍵任務。福特已在數十萬藍區英里的許多車輛上部署了 BlueCruise。我們有強大的技術合作夥伴與我們一起工作。現在我們要從 Argo 引進數百人，一群才華橫溢的人，他們做得很好，在 L4 空間做得很好，但他們現在的工作和使命是幫助我們創造差異化的 4 級 BlueCruise 系統。

Yes, there are huge -- this is a huge addressable market and the potential for highly accretive new revenue streams tied to Level 3. But at the end of the day, this is about giving names of people that time and eliminating the monotony of highway miles and stop-and-go traffic.

是的，有巨大的——這是一個巨大的可尋址市場，以及與 3 級相關的高度增值的新收入流的潛力。但歸根結底，這是關於在那個時候給出人的名字並消除高速公路的單調英里和走走停停的交通。

And as for the future of true L4 autonomy, we don't expect there to be a sudden aha moment like we used to. Deploying L4 broadly, perhaps the toughest technical problem of our time, will require significant breakthroughs going forward in many areas: reliable and low-cost sensing, it's not the case today; algorithms that can operate on limited compute resources without constraining the operating time and domain of an electric vehicle; breakthroughs in neural networks that can learn to operate a car more safely than a human, even in very complex urban environments.

至於真正的 L4 自治的未來，我們預計不會像以前那樣突然出現頓悟的時刻。廣泛部署 L4，也許是我們這個時代最棘手的技術問題，需要在許多領域取得重大突破：可靠和低成本的傳感，今天不是這樣；可以在有限的計算資源上運行而不限制電動汽車的運行時間和域的算法；即使在非常複雜的城市環境中，神經網絡也能比人類更安全地學習駕駛汽車。

The muscles we have built with our new talent in broadly deploying a transformative BlueCruise L3 system will ultimately be essential to the future of accessible driverless vehicles in everyday life. What's so exciting for me is that we are on the cusp of a transformational moment for Ford. We will introduce a lineup of not first but second cycle EVs that are not only fully software updatable and constantly improving, but they will generate an 8% plus margin, an amazing array of software-enabled services not just BlueCruise L3 but many others, video services for software -- for safety and security. And we're already shipping a broad range of Ford Pro productivity tools and 100% uptime services for our commercial customers. That is a transformation for us.

我們用我們的新人才在廣泛部署變革性 BlueCruise L3 系統方面所建立的肌肉最終將對日常生活中無障礙無人駕駛車輛的未來至關重要。令我興奮的是，我們正處於福特轉型時刻的風口浪尖。我們將推出一系列不是第一周期而是第二週期的電動汽車，它們不僅可以完全軟件更新並不斷改進，而且它們將產生 8% 以上的利潤，一系列令人驚嘆的軟件支持服務，不僅是 BlueCruise L3，還有許多其他服務，視頻軟件服務——安全和安保。我們已經為我們的商業客戶提供了範圍廣泛的 Ford Pro 生產力工具和 100% 正常運行時間服務。這對我們來說是一個轉變。

Let me now switch to the quarter. With Ford Model e, we're on track to reach our annual production rate of 600,000 EVs by the end of next year and 2 million by 2026. I'll say that carefully. There is no change to our target. We're adding shifts to the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightnings as we speak, and we're scaling production of E-Transit. In Europe, our all-new EV manufacturing center in Cologne will finish complete -- will be complete and turning out vehicles midway through next year.

現在讓我切換到該季度。借助福特 Model e，我們有望在明年年底前達到 600,000 輛電動汽車的年產量，到 2026 年達到 200 萬輛。我會謹慎地說。我們的目標沒有變化。正如我們所說，我們正在為 Mustang Mach-E 和 F-150 Lightnings 添加班次，並且我們正在擴大 E-Transit 的生產。在歐洲，我們位於科隆的全新 EV 製造中心將完工——將於明年年中完工並生產車輛。

Our Ford Otosan JV in Turkey is not only scaling the 2-tonne E-Transit, but they're also going to be launching a brand-new product, a 1-tonne E-Transit Custom electric while breaking ground on a new battery plant that will supply those for those transits. And in September, we're starting production -- we've already started construction of BlueOval City in Tennessee, where we will build a new-generation EV truck and batteries. And at the same time, we've already broken ground as well on the new BlueOval SK battery plants, plural, in Kentucky. We're also further strengthening Model e's EV supply chain. Our team is making great progress in securing raw materials, importantly, the processing of those raw materials and the battery capacity that we need.

我們在土耳其的福特 Otosan 合資企業不僅正在擴大 2 噸的 E-Transit，而且他們還將推出一款全新的產品，即 1 噸的 E-Transit 定制電動車，同時在新電池廠破土動工這將為那些過境提供那些。 9 月，我們開始生產——我們已經開始在田納西州建設 BlueOval City，我們將在那裡建造新一代 EV 卡車和電池。同時，我們也已經在肯塔基州的新 BlueOval SK 電池工廠（複數）破土動工。我們還在進一步加強 Model e 的電動汽車供應鏈。我們的團隊在確保原材料方面取得了很大進展，重要的是，這些原材料的加工和我們需要的電池容量。

We expect the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act to have a wide range of positive impacts for both our customers and for Ford. What's not yet clear is the degree to which the IRA will drive customer demand versus offsetting our EV investments in growth. So let me touch on some of the potential benefits of the IRA.

我們預計美國《降低通脹法案》將對我們的客戶和福特產生廣泛的積極影響。目前尚不清楚的是 IRA 將在多大程度上推動客戶需求，而不是抵消我們對增長的電動汽車投資。因此，讓我談談 IRA 的一些潛在好處。

The first opportunity is our largest, the battery production tax credit of about $45 per kilowatt hour. From '23 to '26, we estimate a combined available tax credit for Ford and our battery partners could total more than $7 billion with large step-up in annual credits in '27 as our JV battery plants ramp up to full production.

第一個機會是我們最大的，每千瓦時約 45 美元的電池生產稅收抵免。從 23 年到 26 年，我們估計福特和我們的電池合作夥伴的總可用稅收抵免總額可能超過 70 億美元，隨著我們的合資電池廠全面投產，27 年年度抵免額將大幅增加。

The second benefit is often overlooked. I haven't actually read any one of the media covering this, but it's super important for Ford. And that's the commercial EV credit. You know that Ford is the #1 commercial vehicle brand in the U.S., and our commercial customers can now claim next year $7,500 per EV vehicle they buy with no restrictions on battery sourcing or manufacturing. Our preliminary estimate is that between 55% and 65% of all of our commercial vehicle customers will qualify.

第二個好處經常被忽視。我實際上還沒有閱讀任何媒體報導這一點，但這對福特來說非常重要。這就是商業電動汽車的信用。您知道福特是美國排名第一的商用車品牌，我們的商業客戶現在可以在明年每輛購買的電動汽車索賠 7,500 美元，而對電池採購或製造沒有任何限制。我們的初步估計是，我們所有商用車客戶中有 55% 到 65% 將符合條件。

The third opportunity is retail. Ford EVs and our PHEVs remain eligible for the $7,500 tax credit until guidance is issued at the end of this year. Next year, we believe we'll meet the $3,750 critical materials credit requirement on certain Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning models. In '24, the rules will further restrict this critical materials credit. So we believe it's a playing -- a fairly level playing field right now for all the OEMs as our supply chains of critical material extraction and course processing in the U.S. and FTA develops.

第三個機會是零售。在今年年底發布指南之前，福特電動汽車和我們的插電式混合動力汽車仍然有資格獲得 7,500 美元的稅收抵免。明年，我們相信我們將滿足某些 Mustang Mach-E 和 F-150 Lightning 型號 3,750 美元的關鍵材料信貸要求。在'24，規則將進一步限制這種關鍵材料的信用。因此，隨著我們在美國和 FTA 的關鍵材料提取和課程加工供應鏈的發展，我們認為這是一個公平的競爭環境，目前對於所有 OEM 來說都是一個公平的競爭環境。

The fourth benefit centers on the funding growth in our investments such as geothermal energy credit critical for BlueOval City, the Department of Energy loans, grants to convert our domestic facilities to produce electric vehicles, battery plants and other EV components. We're exploring all these capabilities and possibilities as you can imagine.

第四個好處集中在我們投資的資金增長上，例如對 BlueOval City 至關重要的地熱能源信貸、能源部貸款、將我們的國內設施轉換為生產電動汽車、電池廠和其他電動汽車組件的贈款。正如您想像的那樣，我們正在探索所有這些功能和可能性。

Now as you know, we shared the new electric customer standards with all of our North America dealers last month in Vegas. That means a single, simple e-commerce platform, ultra-low vehicle-finished inventory, non-negotiated pricing and fast charges at all of our dealerships. Now early response from the dealers have been very favorable. Many are poised to invest to meet these new standards for electric vehicle customers, while other dealers will opt to specialize for Blue or for Pro. And there's real rewards for going first.

如您所知，我們上個月在拉斯維加斯與所有北美經銷商分享了新的電動客戶標準。這意味著一個單一的、簡單的電子商務平台、超低的整車庫存、非協商定價和我們所有經銷商的快速收費。現在經銷商的早期反應非常有利。許多人準備投資以滿足電動汽車客戶的這些新標準，而其他經銷商將選擇專攻 Blue 或 Pro。第一個去有真正的回報。

Turning to Ford Blue. We view this business Ford Blue is growth. Last month, we unveiled the seventh generation Mustang. We showed the all-new amazing Super Duty in Churchill Downs in Kentucky. And there are -- these are all very well-executed products with incredible technology, upgraded electrical architectures with advanced powertrains, and they really set them apart from the competition.

轉向福特藍。我們認為福特藍的這項業務正在增長。上個月，我們推出了第七代野馬。我們在肯塔基州的丘吉爾唐斯展示了全新的令人驚嘆的 Super Duty。還有——這些都是執行得非常好的產品，擁有令人難以置信的技術，升級的電氣架構和先進的動力系統，它們確實讓它們在競爭中脫穎而出。

What you can't see is what we see. Our design studio is filled with new products and derivatives that will expand our hit franchises like F-150 and Bronco and Mustang and the new Maverick and the Explorer and the Ranger, all segments that we're a leader among the leaders. And I can't wait to show you these new derivatives based on ICE and hybrid powertrains.

你看不到的就是我們看到的。我們的設計工作室充滿了新產品和衍生產品，這些新產品和衍生產品將擴大我們的熱門特許經營權，例如 F-150、Bronco 和 Mustang 以及新的 Maverick、Explorer 和 Ranger，我們在所有細分市場中都處於領先地位。我迫不及待地想向您展示這些基於 ICE 和混合動力系統的新衍生產品。

Finally, let's talk about Pro. In the U.S., customers trust us more than -- with more than 40% of the market for full-sized commercial trucks and vans. In Europe, we're also the #1 commercial vehicle brand. That's for 7 years now, soon to be 8. Businesses of all sizes and types are using Ford Pro's vehicles as well as the suite of our services to lower their cost and improve their productivity. Now that includes multi-make fleets and fleets that are a mix of ICE and EVs. Ford Pro has a real opportunity to grow service and parts sales by offering better experiences like mobile service. We expect to have more than 1,200 mobile service units in operation globally by the end of this year, and they're driving significant dealer parts and service revenue. Actually, more than $10,000 per global -- per unit, service unit, per month.

最後說一下Pro。在美國，客戶對我們的信任超過了——我們擁有超過 40% 的全尺寸商用卡車和貨車市場。在歐洲，我們也是排名第一的商用車品牌。這已經是 7 年了，很快就會是 8 年。各種規模和類型的企業都在使用 Ford Pro 的車輛以及我們的服務套件來降低成本並提高生產力。現在，這包括多品牌車隊以及混合了 ICE 和 EV 的車隊。 Ford Pro 通過提供移動服務等更好的體驗，真正有機會增加服務和零部件的銷售。我們預計到今年年底，全球將有 1,200 多個移動服務單元投入運營，它們正在推動經銷商零部件和服務收入的顯著增長。實際上，每個全球——每單位、服務單位、每月超過 10,000 美元。

But the real game changer for us in the Pro business, in parts and service growth, is software, software centered on productivity, telematics, security and predictive failure of all components. In the third quarter, we saw our paid telematics for Pro grow by over 40% sequentially for the third straight quarter. Our suite of Ford Pro software solutions keeps getting stronger and stronger as we launch new offerings like Ford Pro Fleet and the VIIZR field service management software.

但對我們來說，在 Pro 業務中，在零件和服務增長方面真正改變遊戲規則的是軟件，以生產力、遠程信息處理、安全性和所有組件的預測性故障為中心的軟件。在第三季度，我們看到 Pro 的付費遠程信息處理連續第三個季度環比增長超過 40%。隨著我們推出 Ford Pro Fleet 和 VIIZR 現場服務管理軟件等新產品，我們的 Ford Pro 軟件解決方案套件變得越來越強大。

But before I hand it over to John, let me end with this. We have many challenges as a company, and we're tackling them head-on. That's clear from our third quarter results. At the same time, I'm so excited about the future we're creating with Ford+. We're building completely new businesses with the best Ford talent and incredibly -- incredible new talent across not just Model e but Ford Blue and Ford Pro. We're strengthening our product portfolio across the board, building on what we think is the strongest portfolio we've ever had. And we're tracking to scale to a global run rate of 2 million EVs a year by 2026, and we're investing in growth.

但在我把它交給約翰之前，讓我以這個結束。作為一家公司，我們面臨著許多挑戰，我們正在正面應對。從我們的第三季度業績可以清楚地看出這一點。同時，我對我們與 Ford+ 一起創造的未來感到非常興奮。我們正在建立全新的業務，擁有最優秀的福特人才和令人難以置信的新人才，不僅包括 Model e，還包括福特 Blue 和福特 Pro。我們正在全面加強我們的產品組合，以我們認為是我們有史以來最強大的產品組合為基礎。我們正在跟踪到 2026 年將全球電動汽車的運行速度擴大到每年 200 萬輛，並且我們正在投資於增長。

Taken together, this work statement is nothing short of refounding one of the world's most iconic companies to compete and win in a brand-new era. There's no holding back. There's no looking back. There's no slowing down. In fact, we're accelerating our transformation. John?

總而言之，這份工作聲明無異於重建世界上最具標誌性的公司之一，以在全新時代競爭和取勝。沒有任何退縮。沒有回頭路。沒有減速。事實上，我們正在加速轉型。約翰？

Thanks, Jim. So when I look at the quarter and our performance year-to-date, I'm actually seeing some real positives.

謝謝，吉姆。因此，當我查看本季度和我們年初至今的表現時，我實際上看到了一些真正的積極因素。

First, our strategic actions to segment and stand up 3 distinct business, Ford Model e, Ford Blue and Ford Pro, while not complete yet, is truly transformational and is already changing how we manage the business. So it's about more than just accelerating profitable growth. It's also about how we are going to do that by orienting everything around our different types of customers. The separation of these businesses is revealing to the entire organization how deeply rooted complexity is in our legacy business and how this disadvantages us in quality, innovation, customer satisfaction and ultimately cost and efficiency. And we see it everywhere, from design, to engineering, to manufacturing and how we interact with each other and our suppliers. And so to me, this is really exciting. We understand the magnitude of opportunity and the leverage that this will provide across the entire business. Now we just need to deliver.

首先，我們對福特 Model e、Ford Blue 和 Ford Pro 這三個不同業務進行細分和支持的戰略行動雖然尚未完成，但確實具有變革性，並且已經在改變我們管理業務的方式。因此，這不僅僅是加速盈利增長。這也是關於我們將如何通過圍繞我們不同類型的客戶定位一切來做到這一點。這些業務的分離向整個組織揭示了我們傳統業務中根深蒂固的複雜性，以及這對我們在質量、創新、客戶滿意度以及最終成本和效率方面的不利影響。從設計到工程，再到製造，以及我們與彼此和供應商的互動方式，我們無處不在。所以對我來說，這真的很令人興奮。我們了解機會的規模以及這將為整個業務提供的影響力。現在我們只需要交付。

Second, our product portfolio has never been stronger, starting with our top-selling first-generation EVs like Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning and E-Transit to our new models of category-leading vehicles like Mustang and Super Duty as well as popular derivatives like Raptor and Tremor. These are all inspiring products that our customers love.

其次，我們的產品組合從未如此強大，從我們最暢銷的第一代電動汽車（如 Mustang Mach-E、F-150 Lightning 和 E-Transit）到我們的新車型（如 Mustang 和 Super Duty）作為流行的衍生產品，如 Raptor 和 Tremor。這些都是我們的客戶喜愛的鼓舞人心的產品。

And finally, our capital allocation choices are really paying off. Our sustainable free cash flow generation from our Automotive business is improving significantly, even as we accelerate investments in electrification and connectivity. And this improvement reflects the tough choices that we have made to focus on our strengths, hone our footprint and our product portfolio, especially outside of North America.

最後，我們的資本配置選擇確實得到了回報。我們的汽車業務產生的可持續自由現金流正在顯著改善，即使我們加快了對電氣化和連接性的投資。這一改進反映了我們為專注於我們的優勢、磨練我們的足跡和我們的產品組合所做的艱難選擇，尤其是在北美以外的地區。

So with that as a backdrop, let me turn to our financial results for the quarter. We delivered $1.8 billion in adjusted EBIT, above the $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion guidance range we provided last month. In Automotive, wholesales were up 7% year-over-year. However, EBIT was weighed down by the rich mix of 40,000 vehicles on wheels we had in inventory at the end of the quarter and about $1 billion in lump-sum supplier settlements.

因此，以此為背景，讓我談談我們本季度的財務業績。我們實現了 18 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，高於我們上個月提供的 14 億美元至 17 億美元的指導範圍。在汽車領域，批發量同比增長 7%。然而，息稅前利潤受到我們在本季度末庫存的 40,000 輛帶輪車輛的豐富組合以及約 10 億美元的一次性供應商結算的拖累。

The settlements offset costs incurred by our suppliers, partially due to inflationary impacts on labor, freight and commodities as well as higher costs because of our inconsistent production schedule, which has been disruptive for our partners. So providing greater certainty and schedule stability to our supply base is just one example of the many opportunities we have in front of us as we transform our global supply chain. So we're very grateful for our suppliers' ongoing support and the collaborative approach they are taking to address production shortfalls while also focusing on improving the quality of the parts they ship to us.

和解抵消了我們供應商產生的成本，部分原因是通貨膨脹對勞動力、運費和商品的影響，以及由於我們不一致的生產計劃導致的成本上升，這對我們的合作夥伴造成了破壞。因此，在我們轉變全球供應鏈的過程中，為我們的供應基地提供更大的確定性和進度穩定性只是擺在我們面前的眾多機會的一個例子。因此，我們非常感謝供應商的持續支持以及他們為解決生產短缺問題而採取的協作方式，同時還專注於提高他們向我們運送的零件的質量。

In the quarter, we delivered $3.6 billion in free cash flow with strong cash generation by our Automotive business despite the adverse effects of the 40,000 vehicles on wheels. We expect the negative working capital impact of those units to reverse in the fourth quarter when the vehicles are completed and shipped to dealers.

在本季度，儘管有 40,000 輛帶輪車輛的不利影響，我們的汽車業務仍實現了 36 億美元的自由現金流和強勁的現金生成。我們預計這些單位的負面營運資金影響將在第四季度車輛完工並運送給經銷商時逆轉。

Our balance sheet continues to be very healthy. And we ended the quarter with strong cash and liquidity of $32 billion and $49 billion, respectively. And these numbers include our remaining stake in Rivian, which was valued at less than $1 billion at the end of the quarter.

我們的資產負債表仍然非常健康。我們在本季度末的現金和流動性分別為 320 億美元和 490 億美元。這些數字包括我們在 Rivian 的剩餘股份，在本季度末價值不到 10 億美元。

Now I'll touch on the performance of our business units. North America delivered $1.3 billion of EBIT and a margin of 5%. Both of those measures were driven down year-over-year by higher commodity costs, inflationary pressures and a diverse mix reflecting the buildup of vehicles on wheels and inventory. Our brand strength in order banks remain very strong, and we expect the North America margin to return to double digits in the fourth quarter.

現在我將談談我們業務部門的表現。北美實現了 13 億美元的息稅前利潤和 5% 的利潤率。由於大宗商品成本上升、通脹壓力以及反映車輪和庫存積聚的多樣化組合，這兩項指標均同比下降。我們在訂單銀行的品牌實力仍然非常強勁，我們預計第四季度北美利潤率將恢復至兩位數。

South America continues to benefit from our global redesign efforts, delivering strong margins in its fifth consecutive profitable quarter.

南美繼續受益於我們的全球重新設計工作，在其連續第五個盈利季度實現了強勁的利潤率。

In Europe, we posted a profit of $200 million. And supply chain constraints began to ease, resulting in sequential wholesale growth of 23%. Our commercial vehicle business continues to fortify its leadership position, ending the quarter with a 15.2% share year-to-date.

在歐洲，我們公佈了 2 億美元的利潤。供應鏈約束開始緩解，導致批發量環比增長 23%。我們的商用車業務繼續鞏固其領先地位，本季度末年初至今的市場份額為 15.2%。

And in China, we posted a loss of $200 million, driven by the investments we are making in electric vehicles. Lincoln continues to be a bright spot for the region with share improving again sequentially.

在中國，由於我們對電動汽車的投資，我們公佈了 2 億美元的虧損。林肯繼續成為該地區的亮點，其份額再次連續提高。

Our International Markets Group continues to be solidly profitable. EBIT margins were over 8%, driven by the launch of our exciting all-new Ranger.

我們的國際市場集團繼續保持穩定盈利。在我們激動人心的全新 Ranger 推出的推動下，息稅前利潤率超過 8%。

And then finally, Ford Credit delivered another strong quarter with EBT of $600 million that reflected a more normalized run rate for this business. The anticipated sequential profit decline was driven by the nonoperating release of credit loss reserves and higher borrowing costs.

最後，福特信貸實現了另一個強勁的季度，EBT 為 6 億美元，這反映了該業務的運行率更加正常化。預期的連續利潤下降是由於信貸損失準備金的非經營性釋放和較高的借貸成本所致。

Let me now walk through our impairment of Argo. As Jim highlighted, it's become clear that the technology required to achieve profitable commercialization of full autonomy at scale is going to take much longer than we previously expected. L2+ and L3 driver-assist technologies have a larger addressable customer base, which will allow it to scale more quickly and profitably, and that's going to provide accretive annuity-like revenue streams. During the third quarter, we made the strategic decision to shift our capital spending from the L4 technology being developed by Argo to internally develop L2+/L3 technology. And as a result, in the third quarter, we recorded a $2.7 billion noncash pretax impairment as a special item.

現在讓我介紹一下我們對 Argo 的損害。正如 Jim 強調的那樣，很明顯，實現大規模完全自主的盈利商業化所需的技術將需要比我們之前預期的更長的時間。 L2+ 和 L3 駕駛輔助技術擁有更大的可尋址客戶群，這將使其能夠更快地擴大規模並獲得更多利潤，這將提供類似年金的增值收入流。在第三季度，我們做出了將資本支出從 Argo 正在開發的 L4 技術轉移到內部開發 L2+/L3 技術的戰略決策。因此，在第三季度，我們記錄了 27 億美元的非現金稅前減值作為特殊項目。

Now let me share with you our current outlook. For the year, we expect to earn about $11.5 billion in adjusted EBIT, up about 15% from 2021, with about a 10% increase in wholesale. We're now projecting to generate adjusted free cash flow of $9.5 billion to $10 billion.

現在讓我與您分享我們目前的前景。今年，我們預計調整後息稅前利潤約為 115 億美元，比 2021 年增長約 15%，批發增長約 10%。我們現在預計將產生 95 億至 100 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

Our year-over-year basis for our '22 adjusted EBIT target assumes significantly higher earnings in North America; aggregate profitability in the rest of the world; Ford Credit EBT at about $2.7 billion with strong though lower auction values in the fourth quarter as the supply of new vehicles improves and higher borrowing costs; continued strong pent-up demand in orders for Ford's newest products; continued strength in pricing; higher commodity and broad-based inflationary costs of about $9 billion; no further deterioration in supply chain; and continuation of a strong dollar.

我們 22 年調整後息稅前利潤目標的同比基礎假設北美的收益顯著提高；世界其他地區的總盈利能力；福特信貸 EBT 約為 27 億美元，由於新車供應改善和借貸成本上升，第四季度拍賣價值強勁但較低；福特最新產品的訂單需求持續強勁；價格持續走強；更高的商品和基礎廣泛的通脹成本約為 90 億美元；供應鏈沒有進一步惡化；並延續強勢美元。

So finally, before getting to your questions, let me provide a quick update on our new financial reporting. Last quarter, we mentioned our plan to host a teach-in event early next year to help you prepare for this change to a radically new strategic organization ahead of our first quarter 2023 reporting. So we've now fixed the date for March.

最後，在回答您的問題之前，讓我快速介紹一下我們新的財務報告。上個季度，我們提到了我們計劃在明年初舉辦一次教學活動，以幫助您在 2023 年第一季度報告之前為這一全新戰略組織的變革做好準備。所以我們現在已經確定了三月的日期。

At the teach-in, we will share both 2021 and 2022 revised results to reflect our new segmentation, which we will start using for reporting purposes in Q1 of 2023. But because this is far more than an accounting exercise, we'll also reiterate and illustrate the business rationale for the change along with the reporting mechanics implications for our earnings disclosures and SEC filings. And we'll furnish you with a full toolkit to help you transition your models.

在教學中，我們將分享 2021 年和 2022 年的修訂結果，以反映我們的新細分，我們將在 2023 年第一季度開始將其用於報告目的。但由於這不僅僅是一項會計工作，我們還將重申並說明更改的業務原理以及報告機制對我們的收益披露和 SEC 文件的影響。我們將為您提供完整的工具包，幫助您轉換模型。

So that wraps up our prepared remarks. We'll use the balance of the time to address what's on your minds. And thank you. Operator, please open the line for questions.

這樣就結束了我們準備好的評論。我們將利用剩餘的時間來解決您的想法。謝謝你。接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from John Murphy with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

There's a lot of questions. I'll try to keep it to one here. On the pivot from AV to ADAS or semiautonomous, Jim, there's a lot of moving pieces here. But there are some out there that believe they have a solution to this that's close to working. And I think some of us thought that Argo might be not that far behind. So I'm curious what changed and if you think those folks may be misguided in their assumption that they actually have a solution?

有很多問題。我會盡量把它留在這裡。在從 AV 到 ADAS 或半自主的轉折點上，Jim，這裡有很多移動的部分。但是有一些人相信他們有一個接近工作的解決方案。我認為我們中的一些人認為 Argo 可能不會落後那麼遠。所以我很好奇發生了什麼變化，如果你認為這些人可能誤以為他們確實有解決方案？

And sort of the corollary to that is, are you going to take this capital, and it sounds like you were going to, and accelerate your EV and your connectivity efforts that will generate profits much more quickly in the near term? And how much profit opportunity are there or is there around these connected vehicles that you're seeing with Pro that might spill over into the consumer side?

隨之而來的一種推論是，你是否會接受這筆資金，聽起來你會加速你的電動汽車和連接工作，這將在短期內更快地產生利潤？您在 Pro 上看到的這些聯網車輛周圍有多少利潤機會或有多少可能溢出到消費者方面？

Thank you, John. The decision we made to reallocate our capital is a strategic one. It's some combination of the margins we're starting to see on our software, like Ford Pro, that's really the first large shippable software; the usage patterns we're seeing in BlueCruise, how much people use it and how passionate they are, and that's before ICE off; the confidence we now have in delivering L2 and Level 3; the access to public markets for Level 4 funding; the opaqueness, as John said, of the view to return capital, the invested capital in Level 4 and Level 5. And it's some combination of that and a few other factors. But the biggest factor is our growing confidence in our talent, both the Argo talent and the team at Ford that Doug is building. And I'm sure in the investment conference that will be a big focus of his comments.

謝謝你，約翰。我們做出的重新分配資本的決定是一項戰略性的決定。這是我們開始在我們的軟件上看到的利潤的某種組合，比如福特 Pro，這確實是第一個大型可交付軟件；我們在 BlueCruise 中看到的使用模式、有多少人使用它以及他們有多熱情，這些都是在 ICE 關閉之前；我們現在對提供 L2 和 Level 3 的信心；進入公共市場以獲得第 4 級資金；正如約翰所說，回報資本的觀點不透明，第 4 級和第 5 級的投資資本。這是這些因素和其他一些因素的某種組合。但最大的因素是我們對我們的人才越來越有信心，包括 Argo 人才和道格正在建立的福特團隊。我敢肯定，在投資會議上，這將是他評論的一大焦點。

It's that combination more than are we behind or we ahead that informed us of this decision. And I think it's one of the bigger moments for us as a leadership team. And we are so excited about the software we can ship to our vehicles. We see it in BlueCruise now. We see it in Ford Pro. And we see other software that we're in the midst of. And the other key enabler is our growing confidence in landing a fully software-updatable vehicle as we launch our second cycle EVs. John, maybe it's best for you to talk about the reallocation of capital.

正是這種組合比我們落後或領先更讓我們知道了這個決定。我認為這是我們作為領導團隊的重要時刻之一。我們對可以運送到車輛上的軟件感到非常興奮。我們現在在 BlueCruise 中看到了它。我們在福特 Pro 中看到了這一點。我們看到我們正在使用的其他軟件。另一個關鍵推動因素是，隨著我們推出第二輪電動汽車，我們越來越有信心推出一款完全可更新軟件的汽車。約翰，也許你最好談談資本的重新配置。

Yes. So first off, we're not capital constrained. We're investing our $50 billion. And we're investing on top of that in connectivity and software. So we ended the quarter with $32 billion of cash and $49 billion of liquidity. So it's taking that investment and putting it towards a business where we think we will have a sizable return in the near term relative to one that's going to have a long arc. And that's the business decision behind it. So I think we need to be very clear about that. We're going to invest in L2 and L3, and some of the savings that we have will go into that.

是的。因此，首先，我們不受資金限制。我們正在投資 500 億美元。此外，我們還在連接性和軟件方面進行投資。因此，我們在本季度結束時擁有 320 億美元的現金和 490 億美元的流動資金。因此，它將這項投資投入到一項我們認為相對於長期而言我們將在短期內獲得可觀回報的業務上。這就是它背後的商業決策。所以我認為我們需要非常清楚這一點。我們將投資於 L2 和 L3，我們將節省一些資金。

If I could just maybe just follow up on that. I mean there's got to be a high level of confidence that you're not going to be left behind as autonomy may develop over time. So I mean a skeptic would say you're throwing in the towel, and you can't keep up. An optimist would say you actually have confidence that you'll be able to keep up and maybe surpass the competition over time. I mean how would you couch it in that range?

如果我可以的話，也許只是跟進一下。我的意思是你必須有高度的信心，你不會被拋在後面，因為自主性可能會隨著時間的推移而發展。所以我的意思是懷疑論者會說你認輸，你跟不上。樂觀主義者會說你實際上有信心隨著時間的推移，你將能夠跟上並可能超越競爭對手。我的意思是你會如何在那個範圍內沙發？

Well, I think it's best, John, for us to hear from Doug. But before we do that, I want to emphasize that a winning L4 business is as much about the go-to-market investment of a consumer-facing service. And all the depots, all the HD mapping of all the ODs across this enormous geography, all the enormous fleet, and because it's still weather-constrained, you have to have a driven fleet to complement it. So aside from the -- handicapping the technology, the enormous investment that will have to be made in the nontechnology pieces is a big factor in our thinking. And Doug, maybe you could talk about how we're -- because we're still very excited about Level 4 -- how you see it as a technologist on the technology portion.

好吧，約翰，我認為最好聽聽道格的來信。但在我們這樣做之前，我想強調的是，成功的 L4 業務與面向消費者的服務的上市投資同樣重要。所有的倉庫，所有 OD 的高清地圖，跨越這個巨大的地理區域，所有龐大的車隊，因為它仍然受天氣限制，你必須有一個驅動的車隊來補充它。因此，除了阻礙技術之外，必須在非技術方面進行的巨額投資是我們思考的一個重要因素。 Doug，也許你可以談談我們是如何——因為我們仍然對 Level 4 感到非常興奮——你如何看待它作為技術部分的技術專家。

Sure, Jim. As you mentioned, this is going to be a really tough problem to solve. It's the toughest problem of our generation. And I don't think about it as capital constraints nearly as much as talent constraints. In the kind of projects that we are diving into at Ford and the kind of work that we're doing, the constraint really becomes how many of the world's best people can you get working on a problem. And that's really the decision, in many ways, that is driving what we're doing here at Argo, is we are deeply passionate about the L3 mission. We have ideas of how it can work and how customers can interact with it that are really exciting, particularly when you add them to our next-generation EVs. So this is the way we want to use that talent. And we think it's the most meaningful way for them to impact the world.

當然，吉姆。正如你所提到的，這將是一個非常難以解決的問題。這是我們這一代人最棘手的問題。而且我不認為它是資本限制和人才限制一樣多。在我們在福特潛入的那種項目和我們正在做的那種工作中，真正的製約因素是你能找到多少世界上最優秀的人來解決一個問題。在許多方面，這確實是推動我們在 Argo 所做的事情的決定，是我們對 L3 任務充滿熱情。我們對它如何工作以及客戶如何與之互動有非常令人興奮的想法，尤其是當您將它們添加到我們的下一代電動汽車中時。所以這就是我們想要使用這種天賦的方式。我們認為這是他們影響世界的最有意義的方式。

Next question is from Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Just a follow-up on the Argo, just to be clear. I mean did you look for acquirers for the business? I mean obviously, rather than taking a big impairment. And maybe to follow up a little bit. What is your kind of time line for Level 4 that you're looking at? I mean do you think this is 20 years out at this point? I mean I guess you had a comment with some sort of assessment before you made the decision.

只是對 Argo 的跟進，只是為了清楚起見。我的意思是您是否為該業務尋找收購方？我的意思很明顯，而不是受到很大的損害。也許要跟進一點。您正在查看的第 4 級時間線是怎樣的？我的意思是，你認為現在還有 20 年嗎？我的意思是，我猜您在做出決定之前已經對某種評估發表了評論。

Absolutely. As I mentioned, Colin, we looked at many variables, and one of them is access to public markets. We were very clear that the Argo journey would include access to public markets over the last year. And we feel like that's a lot more challenged. So yes, we looked at possible partnerships and funding. But it was 1 of maybe 10 factors that we looked at in making this decision. John, maybe -- why don't you share your -- our discussion as a leadership team on the time frame?

絕對地。正如我提到的，科林，我們研究了許多變量，其中之一是進入公共市場。我們非常清楚，Argo 之旅將包括去年進入公共市場的機會。我們覺得這更具挑戰性。所以是的，我們研究了可能的合作夥伴關係和資金。但這是我們在做出這個決定時考慮的 10 個因素中的一個。約翰，也許——你為什麼不分享你的——我們作為領導團隊在時間框架上的討論？

Yes. So Colin, when we looked at this, as Jim said, not only does it require the technology breakthroughs and the capital invested in the technology, but then in all the services and fleets, scaling across the country that would be required get to a profitable business, we saw that 5 years plus, the horizon being that far out before you could actually get to something that started to generate a meaningful business. And we see a much greater opportunity to impact more customers immediately with the L2/L3 technology and impact our business in a positive way in the more near-term time frame. So that was part of the business discussion that we had with the team.

是的。所以科林，當我們看到這個時，正如吉姆所說，它不僅需要技術突破和投資於技術的資本，而且還需要在所有服務和車隊中，在全國范圍內擴展，這將需要實現盈利業務，我們已經看到了 5 年多的時間，在你真正開始產生有意義的業務之前，這個範圍還很遙遠。我們看到了一個更大的機會，可以通過 L2/L3 技術立即影響更多客戶，並在更近期的時間範圍內以積極的方式影響我們的業務。所以這是我們與團隊進行的業務討論的一部分。

Got it. And if I could just have a quick follow-up. In terms of the guidance change, you lowered guidance at the midpoint by $500 million. But you did indicate raw materials look like about a $2 billion worse headwind. You lowered Ford Credit. Volume guidance came down. So any color on the offset to the headwinds that you outlined in the release?

知道了。如果我能快速跟進。就指導變化而言，您將中點的指導降低了 5 億美元。但你確實表示原材料看起來像一個更糟糕的逆風 20 億美元。你降低了福特信貸。成交量指引下降。那麼，您在新聞稿中概述的逆風偏移上有什麼顏色嗎？

Yes, I think it's really 2 things. It's the mix that we can see, vehicle line mix coming out of the supply base and then sterling. The exposure we have, as you know, we're the largest commercial vehicle player in Europe from a brand standpoint, and we have a very strong presence in the U.K. And so that currency change did hit us quite hard after the quarter closed.

是的，我認為這真的是兩件事。這是我們可以看到的組合，從供應基地出來的車輛線組合，然後是英鎊。如您所知，從品牌的角度來看，我們是歐洲最大的商用車製造商，我們在英國的影響力非常強大。因此，在本季度結束後，貨幣變化確實對我們造成了很大的打擊。

And so when we look at that, one of the things that we've done, Colin, that I've done, is I spent a lot of time, the team has, the last couple of weeks, doing deep dive on-site reviews of the supply base. In fact, we're approaching a deep review of almost 300 of those suppliers. And what we're finding is that there's a number of non-chip suppliers that are struggling to ramp production as the chip crisis eases. And it's not easing tremendously. It's easing slightly. We're starting to see that. But then we're seeing issues in non-chip suppliers.

因此，當我們看到這一點時，我們已經完成的一件事，科林，我已經完成的，是我花了很多時間，在過去的幾周里，團隊在現場進行了深入研究供應基地審查。事實上，我們正在對其中近 300 家供應商進行深入審查。我們發現，隨著芯片危機的緩解，許多非芯片供應商正在努力提高產量。而且它並沒有大幅緩解。略有緩和。我們開始看到這一點。但隨後我們看到了非芯片供應商的問題。

It has to do with the tight labor market, but it also has to do, we're finding, with many of the suppliers during the COVID time frame had not invested in maintenance or in their facilities and tooling, and so they're not able to ramp as we expected. And that's hit us in the fourth quarter on mix versus what we had expected. And so it's really the mix and the currency that's getting to us and brought us down to the low end of our range.

這與勞動力市場緊張有關，但我們發現，許多供應商在 COVID 時間框架內沒有投資於維護或他們的設施和工具，所以他們沒有能夠像我們預期的那樣傾斜。這在第四季度對我們的影響與我們的預期不同。因此，真正影響我們的是組合和貨幣，並將我們帶到了我們範圍的低端。

Okay. And the offset to that $2 billion in results, is that pricing and possible vehicle mix, sorry?

好的。並且抵消了 20 億美元的結果，是定價和可能的車輛組合，抱歉？

Yes. Pricing. Net pricing continues to remain strong. Exactly, pricing continues to remain strong.

是的。價錢。淨定價繼續保持強勁。確切地說，定價繼續保持強勁。

The next question is from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Are you able to dimension for us how much of the $1 billion of higher-than-expected supplier-related inflation costs incurred in 3Q actually relate to in-period expenses incurred by suppliers versus how much might represent a catch-up of prior period cost? To know that, I think, would help with understanding what portion of this headwind in 3Q that we should model as continuing into 2023 versus how much might be more onetime in nature.

您能否為我們衡量，在第三季度發生的 10 億美元高於預期的供應商相關通脹成本中，有多少實際與供應商發生的期間費用相關，而多少可能代表前期成本的追趕？ ?我認為，要知道這一點，將有助於了解我們應該將第三季度逆風的哪一部分建模為持續到 2023 年，而在自然界中可能更多的是一次性。

Yes. So one of the things that we're doing is, as we're taking settlements with the supply base, we're looking to do that more in a lump-sum fashion so that it's not baked into the piece price. And we'll share more about what that means on a go-forward basis as we talk about '23 in Q4. So what we've provided for the year is this $9 billion, up from $7 billion last quarter when we reported. The amount of $1 billion in the third quarter was part of the third quarter, but it was also settlement for the first half as well. And it largely reflects in a lot of ways a confluence of factors that led to that.

是的。所以我們正在做的一件事是，當我們與供應基地達成和解時，我們希望以一次性的方式做更多的事情，這樣它就不會被計入單價。當我們在第四季度談論 '23 時，我們將在前進的基礎上分享更多關於這意味著什麼。因此，我們今年提供的是 90 億美元，高於上一季度報告時的 70 億美元。第三季度的10億美元是第三季度的一部分，但也是上半年的結算。它在很大程度上反映了導致這種情況的多種因素的匯合。

One of the things we are having better clarity around is schedule and stability. And combining that with labor shortages and our high complexity, that had a larger impact on the supply base's ability to deliver cost efficiencies this year and much higher than we expected, and quite frankly, higher than we were initially willing to accept.

我們更清楚的一件事是時間表和穩定性。再加上勞動力短缺和我們的高度複雜性，這對供應基地今年提供成本效率的能力產生了更大的影響，並且遠高於我們的預期，坦率地說，高於我們最初願意接受的水平。

And so we spent a lot of time with our supplier partners. And we came to the conclusion, and that included conversations all the way up with Jim with supplier CEOs. And our conclusion coming out of that was that it became evident that we needed to increase the settlement amount, support our supplier partners, and we made the call in the third quarter. And then we told all of you as soon as we made that call so that we got out in front of it and knew what we knew.

因此，我們花了很多時間與我們的供應商合作夥伴交流。我們得出了結論，其中包括與 Jim 一直與供應商 CEO 進行的對話。我們由此得出的結論是，很明顯我們需要增加結算金額，支持我們的供應商合作夥伴，我們在第三季度做出了決定。然後我們一打那個電話就告訴了你們所有人，這樣我們就站在它面前，知道我們所知道的。

Okay. Very helpful. And lastly, I think at the time of the 2Q call, you considered it a bit too early to say whether commodity costs are likely to be a tailwind or a headwind next year. But with the subsequent decline now in spot prices, are you more confident that commodities are likely to be a tailwind? And are you able to dimension at all that tailwind or maybe compare it directionally in magnitude to the headwinds that you're likely to face when it comes to noncommodity supply chain costs which do not seem to be deflating similar to commodities?

好的。非常有幫助。最後，我認為在第二季度電話會議時，您認為現在說明年商品成本可能是順風還是逆風還為時過早。但隨著現貨價格隨後的下跌，您是否更有信心認為大宗商品可能是順風？當涉及到非商品供應鏈成本似乎不像大宗商品那樣通縮時，您是否能夠衡量所有順風，或者可能將其與您可能面臨的逆風進行定向比較？

Yes. So we are seeing the commodity spot prices come off a bit, but quite honestly, it's not meaningful enough at this point to make a significant impact. I think we're all trying to work through the macroeconomic environment how far are things going to slow down, how quickly will that drive easing of commodity prices, will that also drive ease in the whole logistics chain. We know that logistic prices are up significantly. Ocean freight is up significantly.

是的。因此，我們看到商品現貨價格有所下跌，但老實說，目前還不足以產生重大影響。我認為我們都在努力應對宏觀經濟環境，事情會放緩到什麼程度，這會以多快的速度推動商品價格的放鬆，這也會推動整個物流鏈的放鬆。我們知道物流價格大幅上漲。海運運費大幅上漲。

And so right now, trying to make that call on 2023 with a quarter left to go is a really difficult thing to do. So we're going to hold off on doing any of that today. And we'll be able to talk about more of that with our Q4 earnings at the beginning of next year.

所以現在，試圖在還剩四分之一的情況下在 2023 年做出這樣的決定是一件非常困難的事情。因此，我們今天將推遲執行任何此類操作。我們將能夠在明年年初的第四季度收益中討論更多關於這方面的內容。

The next question is from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

I wanted to just ask about vehicle pricing. Jim, you've always had a pretty good read on -- seeing the market through the consumers' lens. And obviously, average transaction prices are up a lot, and now rates are going up, and trade-in values are starting to come off the peak. Can you maybe just give us your thoughts about affordability and this interplay between price and volume that inventory starts to normalize? It'd be helpful if you have any thoughts on kind of the magnitude of price normalization that we might see over the next year or 2.

我只想問一下車輛定價。吉姆，你總是讀得很好——從消費者的角度看市場。顯然，平均交易價格上漲了很多，現在價格也在上漲，以舊換新的價值開始脫離峰值。您能否就可負擔性以及庫存開始正常化的價格和數量之間的相互作用給我們您的想法？如果您對我們可能在未來一兩年內看到的價格正常化幅度有任何想法，那將會很有幫助。

Thank you, Rod. The early signs are coming in. It's interesting. It's lumpy. The commercial vehicle and EV demand is through the roof. We've seen literally no change, if not an increase. And that includes commercial vehicles in Europe, which is interesting. Our order bank continues to grow. It's multi, multi-month. We continue to have to close out order windows for our commercial vehicles because of the demand. Same for EVs, as we've taken prices up.

謝謝你，羅德。早期跡象正在出現。這很有趣。是塊狀的。商用車和電動汽車的需求達到頂峰。我們幾乎沒有看到任何變化，如果不是增加的話。這包括歐洲的商用車，這很有趣。我們的訂單庫繼續增長。這是多，多月。由於需求，我們繼續不得不關閉商用車的訂單窗口。電動汽車也一樣，因為我們已經漲價了。

On the retail side in the U.S., what I see that's different from last quarter is a slight uptick on 84-month customer financing. And Marion, if you want to go into that, that's fine. We're seeing, obviously, an easing of used cars, which makes trade-ins and those transactions that include trade-ins a little more challenging for customers for higher payments.

在美國的零售方面，我認為與上一季度不同的是 84 個月的客戶融資略有上升。 Marion，如果你想深入了解，那很好。顯然，我們看到二手車的放寬，這使得以舊換新和包括以舊換新在內的交易對客戶更高的付款更具挑戰性。

We're seeing -- the one that I watch the most is our turn rates for F-150. It's our highest-volume vehicle. And we're starting to see some differences in turn rates between XLT and Lariat. It's small right now, but it's different. In the past, Lariat's turned faster than XLT, and that's reversed compared to the quarter. It's really subtle right now.

我們看到——我最看重的是我們 F-150 的轉彎率。這是我們產量最高的車輛。我們開始看到 XLT 和 Lariat 之間的轉向率存在一些差異。它現在很小，但它已經不同了。過去，Lariat 的轉身速度比 XLT 快，而與本季度相比，情況發生了逆轉。現在真的很微妙。

So what I'd expect on pricing -- and you see some of our competitors come in with higher spending now on incentives. So we've already accounted for some of that, as John has said in the past. What I would be looking for and what I think is important to watch for is the mix changes. The mixes of series and specifications within a profitable nameplate like Super Duty or F-150 or mix shifts, obviously, between models. Rod, our lineup is so fresh right now. It's very opaque for us. So the only mix shift we're seeing is within spec. Marion, do you want to mention anything about payments?

所以我對定價的期望是什麼——你會看到我們的一些競爭對手現在在激勵方面的支出更高。正如約翰過去所說，我們已經考慮了其中的一部分。我會尋找並且我認為需要注意的是混合變化。在 Super Duty 或 F-150 等有利可圖的銘牌中，系列和規格的混合，或者顯然，模型之間的混合變化。羅德，我們的陣容現在很新鮮。這對我們來說非常不透明。所以我們看到的唯一混合變化是在規格範圍內。 Marion，你想提一下關於付款的任何事情嗎？

Yes. We're seeing some customers extending terms for vehicle affordability, trying to stay at the same payment level. But with higher transaction prices and higher interest rates, customers are going longer term. And we've seen vehicle payment, even with that, move out quite a bit this year. And it's -- that's starting to have a bit of an effect. And it's in pockets around the country as well. So many areas are still very, very strong. In other areas, you hear about deals not going through because of changes in payment quality.

是的。我們看到一些客戶延長了車輛負擔能力的條款，試圖保持相同的支付水平。但是隨著更高的交易價格和更高的利率，客戶的期限更長。我們已經看到車輛支付，即使這樣，今年也有相當多的轉移。而且它 - 這開始產生一些影響。它也在全國各地的口袋裡。很多領域仍然非常非常強大。在其他領域，您會聽說由於支付質量的變化而導致交易無法完成。

And maybe just switching gears, Marion, I'm trying to understand your implicit guidance for Ford Credit. You brought the full year down a little bit, at least it optically looks that way from around $3 billion to $2.7 billion, but now Q4 looks like it's quite low. I was wondering if you might be able to give us some color on where you expect to end the year in terms of loss reserves. At one point, you had, I think, post-COVID, taken the reserves up to 1.2% of managed receivables. Is that sort of something that you're -- that's implicit in these numbers? Or is there anything else in there that's driving that level of profitability?

也許只是換檔，馬里恩，我試圖理解你對福特信貸的隱含指導。你把全年的收入稍微降低了一點，至少從外觀上看，它從大約 30 億美元降到了 27 億美元，但現在第四季度看起來相當低。我想知道您是否可以就損失準備金方面的預期年底給我們一些顏色。在某一時刻，我認為，在 COVID 之後，您的準備金佔管理應收賬款的 1.2%。你是那種東西——隱含在這些數字中嗎？或者還有什麼其他東西可以推動這種盈利水平？

Yes. Let me just give you the key takeaways here. First of all, our balance sheet is significantly smaller than it was a few years ago, right off the top. Second, we're no longer releasing COVID-related credit loss reserves. We're back at what we would consider normal reserve levels. Third, our lease depreciation tailwinds are mostly behind us, and we have lower used car values as we look forward. And fourth, our borrowing costs were higher, which we haven't been able to fully pass on to customers as rates have risen rapidly. That's something though that, over time, we do expect the balance sheet to grow, and we would expect some continued borrowing cost headwinds, but those will moderate and ease over time as the portfolio turns.

是的。讓我在這裡告訴你關鍵的要點。首先，我們的資產負債表比幾年前要小得多。其次，我們不再釋放與 COVID 相關的信用損失準備金。我們回到了我們認為的正常儲備水平。第三，我們的租賃折舊順風大部分都在我們身後，而且我們期待的二手車價值較低。第四，我們的借貸成本較高，由於利率迅速上升，我們無法完全轉嫁給客戶。儘管如此，隨著時間的推移，我們確實預計資產負債表會增長，並且我們預計會出現一些持續的借貸成本逆風，但隨著投資組合的轉變，這些逆風會隨著時間的推移而緩和和緩解。

Your next question is from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Mark Delaney。

So maybe you could share more on the timing to bring L3 products to market. And is that something you think Ford will be developing in-house perhaps with some benefit from Argo capabilities? I was just thinking something you perhaps leverage from some of the suppliers and some of their potential input or maybe some combination.

因此，也許您可以分享更多關於將 L3 產品推向市場的時機。你認為福特會在內部開發一些東西，也許會從 Argo 功能中受益嗎？我只是在想你可能會從一些供應商那裡利用一些東西，以及他們的一些潛在投入或一些組合。

Thank you, Mark. I think Doug is best suited to answer this. All I would say is that we're timing the arrival in line with our second cycle of EVs and a fully updatable, software-updatable vehicle. So kind of think of that '23 to '25 time frame as Ford completely refreshing its EV lineup globally, introducing fully updatable electrical architectures and in-house software development for controlling the vehicle, leveraging all of our experience of now we've done 5 million OTAs and an enhanced Level 2+ and Level 3 system. Over to you, Doug.

謝謝你，馬克。我認為 Doug 最適合回答這個問題。我想說的是，我們正在根據我們的第二個電動汽車週期和完全可更新、可軟件更新的車輛來安排時間。想像一下 23 到 25 的時間框架，福特在全球範圍內徹底更新其 EV 陣容，引入完全可更新的電氣架構和內部軟件開發來控制車輛，利用我們現在已經完成的所有經驗 5百萬 OTA 和增強的 2+ 級和 3 級系統。交給你了，道格。

Thanks, Jim. We are not going to ignore the capabilities of suppliers that can provide value in our L3 solution. They are great manufacturers of components of systems such as imaging sensors and radar, and we'll take advantage of that. But we will have a core team that can integrate a system, understand its performance at the system level, and we will own the software. It is really important that we also own the connection to these vehicles. L3 is a connected technology. So the ability to have a pipeline that collects data and makes the system better and better, we must own that.

謝謝，吉姆。我們不會忽視可以在我們的 L3 解決方案中提供價值的供應商的能力。他們是成像傳感器和雷達等系統組件的優秀製造商，我們將利用這一點。但是我們將擁有一個可以集成系統的核心團隊，在系統級別了解其性能，並且我們將擁有該軟件。我們還擁有與這些車輛的連接，這一點非常重要。 L3 是一種互聯技術。因此，擁有收集數據並使系統越來越好的管道的能力，我們必須擁有它。

Finally, the customer experience, how the customer moves in and out of autonomous operation, that's a problem that actually doesn't exist in L4 and is a huge opportunity for us to create a Ford experience that's really unique. So those are the areas that we will absolutely develop great capability in-house and focus on in the L3 development.

最後，客戶體驗，客戶如何進出自主操作，這是一個在 L4 中實際上不存在的問題，並且是我們創造真正獨特的福特體驗的巨大機會。所以這些是我們絕對會在內部開發強大能力並專注於 L3 開發的領域。

And we're really excited about the Argo team helping us with that internal effort.

我們對 Argo 團隊幫助我們進行內部工作感到非常興奮。

Yes, we have just incredible talent.

是的，我們有令人難以置信的天賦。

That's quite helpful. And one more on EVs, if I could, please. You mentioned the myriad of ways that the IRA could potentially benefit Ford. And you reiterated the capacity ramp targets through 2026, I believe. But as you think over the longer term and perhaps out over the next 10 years or so, does the IRA change the gross amount of investment you want to make into EVs and how quickly Ford may shift toward EVs, especially in the latter part of this decade?

這很有幫助。如果可以的話，請再來一份關於電動汽車的信息。您提到了 IRA 可能使福特受益的無數方式。我相信你重申了到 2026 年的產能提升目標。但是，從長遠來看，或許在未來 10 年左右的時間裡，IRA 是否會改變您對電動汽車的投資總額，以及福特汽車轉向電動汽車的速度，尤其是在後半部分十年？

It only accelerates what we're going to do, for sure. And what's exciting for us is being a 40% player in the U.S. and the top brand in Europe of commercial vehicles. In the U.S., I mean, we never had this before. To give you a sense of the EV tax credit for commercial, how evocative that is for Ford, the people who buy police vehicles, the people who buy ambulances for communities, the emergency responders, they never had tax credits. They are going to have -- this is not just a $7,500 tax credit for consumers. This is for businesses, including local municipalities.

當然，它只會加速我們要做的事情。令我們興奮的是成為美國 40% 的參與者和歐洲商用車的頂級品牌。在美國，我的意思是，我們以前從未有過這種情況。為了讓您了解商業電動汽車稅收抵免，這對福特、購買警車的人、為社區購買救護車的人、緊急救援人員來說是多麼令人回味，他們從來沒有稅收抵免。他們將擁有——這不僅僅是對消費者的 7,500 美元稅收抵免。這適用於企業，包括當地市政當局。

So I think this will have a dramatic impact on the adoption of EV, which we're already 90% market share in the EV business. We think it will really accelerate the demand for these commercial EVs, and that's only going to accelerate our speed to market and our scaling of those vehicles. We can't wait to show you the vehicles themselves because they're second-generation commercial EVs. So this is going to accelerate.

所以我認為這將對電動汽車的採用產生巨大影響，我們已經在電動汽車業務中佔據了 90% 的市場份額。我們認為這將真正加速對這些商用電動汽車的需求，而這只會加快我們的上市速度和這些車輛的規模化。我們迫不及待地向您展示這些車輛本身，因為它們是第二代商用電動汽車。所以這將加速。

What's not clear yet, I said, is will the consumer demand side of this legislation be the largest benefit to our customers in the company or will it be more like the industrialization of vehicles. That's something to play out in the marketplace. And it's hard to handicap that, honestly.

我說，目前尚不清楚的是，這項立法的消費者需求方面是否會為我們公司的客戶帶來最大的利益，還是更像汽車的工業化。這是在市場上發揮作用的東西。老實說，很難阻礙這一點。

The next question is from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

Maybe, Jim, just picking up there on the IRA side. You mentioned the $7 billion between Ford and the partners. I believe that is sort of that full $45. Can we just drill down a little bit? Because it would seem to me like you should at least be able to get the 10 for the pack starting next year. And then where are you in sort of negotiating maybe how much of that 35 you can get from some of your partners?

也許，吉姆，只是在愛爾蘭共和軍方面接手。你提到了福特和合作夥伴之間的 70 億美元。我相信這差不多是 45 美元。我們可以稍微深入一點嗎？因為在我看來，您至少應該能夠從明年開始獲得 10 個包裝。然後你在哪裡進行談判，也許你可以從你的一些合作夥伴那裡得到多少這 35 個？

And then just on the commercial side, like should we really think -- how should we think about, I guess, the mix of EVs next year between commercial and retail? Because it seems like it's, to your point, pretty skewed in one direction.

然後只是在商業方面，我們真的應該考慮 - 我猜，我們應該如何考慮明年商業和零售之間的電動汽車組合？因為在你看來，它似乎非常偏向一個方向。

Yes. Well, I wish we could go into the commercial negotiation with our battery partners, but I'm not going to go into it now. But you can imagine there's lots of interesting discussions going on right now between -- because we're obviously in the middle -- I mean some, we've already inked the deal on our DAs. Others are still in the mix. So I wish I could cover that with you right now, but I don't think that would be fair to our battery partners to go public with, with how that's going to benefit both of us. But you can imagine. I mean I just think of it, generally speaking, as proportional to our investments.

是的。好吧，我希望我們可以與我們的電池合作夥伴進行商業談判，但我現在不打算進行。但是你可以想像現在有很多有趣的討論正在進行 - 因為我們顯然處於中間 - 我的意思是一些，我們已經在我們的 DA 上簽署了協議。其他人仍在混合中。所以我希望我現在能和你一起討論這個問題，但我認為這對我們的電池合作夥伴公開是不公平的，因為這將使我們雙方都受益。但你可以想像。我的意思是，一般來說，我只是認為它與我們的投資成正比。

On the commercial EV, I have to say, the demand for the move to electric on our commercial customers is, in many ways, more robust than the retail side, even though we're completely sold out in both. For the 3 products, the turn rates are just enormous, the order rates. But the profitability is different between a commercial EV and a retail EV. And we're going to be breaking out our EV business and profitability soon. So this is going to be quite interesting for all of you and for us as we do that. But I will tell you, this is a big help. This will really help the profitability of our commercial vehicle that are EV. And I think it will really stimulate the demand.

在商業電動汽車上，我不得不說，我們的商業客戶對電動汽車的需求在很多方面都比零售方面更強勁，儘管我們在這兩個方面都完全售罄。對於這 3 種產品，周轉率非常高，即訂單率。但是商用電動汽車和零售電動汽車的盈利能力是不同的。我們將很快打破我們的電動汽車業務和盈利能力。因此，當我們這樣做時，這對你們所有人和我們來說都將非常有趣。但我會告訴你，這是一個很大的幫助。這將真正有助於我們的電動汽車商用車的盈利能力。我認為這將真正刺激需求。

The tricky part for us is, operationally, what do we do between now and the end of the year. That's the tricky part for us operationally because we have a lot of customers who are going to wait until next year to order a Lightning Pro or an E-Transit. But I think -- for sure, this is just going to upset that equilibrium. We have to -- by the way, we have to -- we have this discussion inside the company every day. How many Lightning Pros do we want to make? And how many Lightning retail F-150 EVs do we want to make?

對我們來說，棘手的部分是，在操作上，從現在到年底我們要做什麼。這對我們的運營來說是個棘手的部分，因為我們有很多客戶要等到明年才能訂購 Lightning Pro 或 E-Transit。但我認為——當然，這只會打破這種平衡。我們必須——順便說一句，我們必須——我們每天在公司內部進行討論。我們想要製作多少個 Lightning Pro？我們想要製造多少輛閃電零售 F-150 電動汽車？

It's already quite spirited discussion. But I think this will help our profitability quite a bit even next year, which you will see. And we're really excited about this change. I mean having almost 65% of our customers qualify, including local municipalities, it's a game changer for our demand. John, anything you want to divulge about the negotiations?

這已經是很熱烈的討論了。但我認為這甚至會在明年對我們的盈利能力有很大幫助，你會看到的。我們對這種變化感到非常興奮。我的意思是讓我們近 65% 的客戶（包括當地市政當局）符合條件，這改變了我們的需求。約翰，關於談判，你有什麼想透露的嗎？

No, none about the negotiation. Thanks, Jim.

不，沒有關於談判的。謝謝，吉姆。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe just, Jim, you've clearly shown since you've -- since you've been CEO that you've been willing to adapt and change to new information and circumstances, like the Argo announcements today, I think. And the other example would be, I guess, the LFP strategy you talked about earlier this summer. But I guess that has even maybe potentially changed a little bit again since, I guess, geopolitically, the U.S. relationship with China might have turned south. So any update on that? And is there a backup plan? Is there any risk to any of those time lines?

也許只是，吉姆，你已經清楚地表明，自從你擔任首席執行官以來，你一直願意適應和改變新的信息和環境，比如今天的 Argo 公告，我想。另一個例子是，我猜，你在今年夏天早些時候談到的 LFP 策略。但我想這甚至可能會再次發生一些變化，因為我想，在地緣政治上，美國與中國的關係可能已經轉向南方。那麼有什麼更新嗎？有沒有後備計劃？這些時間線是否有任何風險？

That is a very good question. So obviously, we have this unique profile as a commercial company in EV. And we now have, I mean, literally all the commercial pickup truck business that's EV, and we're 90% plus on the van side. So it's a very important question for us. And we also think for affordability, back to Rod's point, LFP is a very important technology. And all the IP is in China. So this is a really dynamic situation.

這是一個很好的問題。很明顯，我們作為 EV 的商業公司擁有這種獨特的形象。我的意思是，我們現在擁有的所有商用皮卡車業務都是電動汽車，我們在貨車方面的比例超過 90%。所以這對我們來說是一個非常重要的問題。我們還考慮到可負擔性，回到 Rod 的觀點，LFP 是一項非常重要的技術。而且所有的IP都在中國。所以這是一個非常動態的情況。

I think what you'll see is that the tariff rules of importing LFP batteries in the U.S. is still very favorable. And we have a really great contract with a particular LFP supplier to incorporate those batteries next year. So I think we're in really good shape.

我想你會看到，美國進口磷酸鐵鋰電池的關稅規則還是很優惠的。我們與一家特定的 LFP 供應商簽訂了一份非常好的合同，將在明年整合這些電池。所以我認為我們的狀態非常好。

The real billion-dollar question is, when do you localize production of LFP in North America? And is that in the U.S. and Mexico? And where do you build the cells versus pack? And whose name is on the front of the building and all that? And we're not going to go into that. But I will tell you that just given the reality of the tariff structure, we can import LFP from China economically now.

真正價值數十億美元的問題是，你們什麼時候在北美本地化 LFP 的生產？那是在美國和墨西哥嗎？你在哪裡建造細胞而不是包裝？誰的名字在大樓的前面等等？我們不打算討論這個。但我會告訴你，鑑於關稅結構的現實，我們現在可以從經濟上從中國進口 LFP。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

福特汽車公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。