福特汽車 (F) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Andrea, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天。我的名字是 Andrea，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎您參加福特汽車公司 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。請繼續。

Thank you, Andrea. Welcome to Ford Motor Company's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me today are Jim Farley, our President and CEO; and John Lawler, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit; Hau Thai-Tang, Chief Industrial Platform Officer; and Doug Field, Chief EV and Digital Systems Officer for the Model e.

謝謝你，安德里亞。歡迎參加福特汽車公司 2022 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Farley；和我們的首席財務官 John Lawler。 Ford Credit 首席執行官 Marion Harris 也加入了我們的問答環節。 Hau Thai-Tang，首席產業平台官；以及 Model e 的首席電動汽車和數字系統官 Doug Field。

Today's discussions include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck, along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content, at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論包括一些非公認會計原則的參考。這些與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則措施相一致。您可以在 sharepoint.ford.com 上找到該套牌以及我們的其他收益材料和其他重要內容。

Today's discussions also include forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 28. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis, and product mix is volume weighted.

今天的討論還包括關於我們預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。第 28 頁列出了可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素。除非另有說明，否則所有比較均為同比。公司息稅前利潤、每股收益和自由現金流是在調整後的基礎上計算的，產品組合是體積加權的。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給吉姆。

Hello, everyone. Thank you, Lynn, and thanks for joining our first quarter 2022 earnings call. Yesterday, I was with Bill Ford and our incredible team at the Rouge factory, where my grandfather worked, to celebrate job 1 for the F-150 Lightning. We were all so proud as a team for delivering a truly breakthrough electric truck and delivering it on time as a launch.

大家好。謝謝你，林恩，感謝你參加我們的 2022 年第一季度財報電話會議。昨天，我和比爾福特以及我們令人難以置信的團隊在我祖父工作的 Rouge 工廠慶祝 F-150 閃電的第 1 項工作。作為一個團隊，我們都為交付真正突破性的電動卡車並按時交付而感到自豪。

The excitement around the truck is like nothing I've ever seen in my career. In fact, the power went out in the facility, and we ran most of the presentation with F-150 Pro power on board. While we have work ahead to fully scale production and fill an extraordinary order bank, both for our retail Lightning customers and Ford Pro, make no mistake, this is a very important moment for us at Ford.

卡車周圍的興奮是我職業生涯中從未見過的。事實上，設施內停電了，我們在 F-150 Pro 的電源上運行了大部分演示文稿。雖然我們正在努力全面擴大生產規模並填補非凡的訂單庫，但對於我們的零售閃電客戶和福特 Pro 來說，毫無疑問，這對我們福特來說是一個非常重要的時刻。

We're accelerating our significant transformation. We have the right plan called Ford+. We are putting in place the right organization. As you know, on March 2, we announced our plan to form 2 distinct but interdependent business units called Ford Model e and Ford Blue. Together with Ford Pro, these 3 automotive businesses allow us to clearly define and assign priorities, make the most of our existing strengths, but also build new strategic muscles and, most importantly, capabilities.

我們正在加速我們的重大轉型。我們有正確的計劃，稱為 Ford+。我們正在建立正確的組織。如您所知，3 月 2 日，我們宣布了組建 2 個不同但相互依存的業務部門的計劃，分別稱為福特 Model e 和福特藍色。與 Ford Pro 一起，這 3 個汽車業務使我們能夠明確定義和分配優先事項，充分利用我們現有的優勢，同時建立新的戰略力量，最重要的是，能力。

Ford Model e is responsible for delivering clean sheet breakthrough EV designs, software advanced electric architectures, partial autonomy. And Ford Blue's mission is to deliver a more vibrant and profitable ICE business, a business that's going to serve in the short term as our profit and cash engine for the entire enterprise.

福特 Model e 負責提供全新的突破性電動汽車設計、軟件先進的電氣架構、部分自主權。 Ford Blue 的使命是提供更具活力和盈利能力的 ICE 業務，該業務將在短期內成為我們整個企業的利潤和現金引擎。

So what have we learned since March 2? And what are we working on at Ford? In terms of Model e, first, it's very clear to us that battery capacity is the key unlock to our EV aspirations and propel our growth in the future. We're in good shape in the near term. In the medium and long term, securing raw materials, processing, precursor and refinement and setting up battery production here in the U.S. and around the world is a big work statement for us. Expect a lot of news from Ford in the future related to the vertical integration of our EV business.

那麼自 3 月 2 日以來我們學到了什麼？我們在福特做什麼？就 Model e 而言，首先，我們非常清楚，電池容量是我們實現電動汽車抱負並推動我們未來增長的關鍵。我們在短期內處於良好狀態。從中長期來看，確保原材料、加工、前體和精煉以及在美國和世界各地建立電池生產對我們來說是一項重要的工作聲明。預計未來福特會有很多與我們電動汽車業務垂直整合相關的消息。

Second, we're getting after our talent gap in key areas, EV engineering, software and autonomous driving technology. We have a very good start already, and we will continually be very aggressive on recruiting talent.

其次，我們正在彌補在電動汽車工程、軟件和自動駕駛技術等關鍵領域的人才缺口。我們已經有了一個很好的開端，我們將繼續非常積極地招聘人才。

Third, we're now deep into discussions with our dealer partners around the globe, but especially in North America, on brand new standards that are required to launch a completely different customer experience that is leaner and better for our customers that we believe will not only be competitive but superior to a solely direct model. We're drafting standards as we speak and plan to roll this out this year.

第三，我們現在正在與我們在全球的經銷商合作夥伴進行深入討論，尤其是在北美，關於推出完全不同的客戶體驗所需的全新標準，這種體驗對我們的客戶來說更精簡、更好，我們認為這不會僅具有競爭力但優於完全直接的模型。我們正在起草標準，併計劃在今年推出。

Finally, we're crafting our EV future product pipeline and are focused on a small number of highly compelling, highly volume models in key segments where we already lead. I want to make this very clear, some companies seem to be pursuing a strategy of trying to match model-wise volume with 8 or 9 top hats. That's not a winning plan in our view. We will focus on key volume nameplates, constrained capital because we have it, but really to leverage scale and efficiency to reach and eventually exceed our 8% EBIT target for EVs.

最後，我們正在製定我們的電動汽車未來產品線，並專注於我們已經領先的關鍵領域的少數高度引人注目、大批量的車型。我想非常清楚地說明這一點，一些公司似乎正在推行一種策略，即試圖將模型數量與 8 或 9 頂帽子相匹配。在我們看來，這不是一個成功的計劃。我們將專注於關鍵數量銘牌、受限資本，因為我們擁有它，但真正利用規模和效率來達到並最終超過我們 8% 的電動汽車 EBIT 目標。

I want to be clear here that as we move forward, our EV designs will be progressive, and they're going to be aimed at bringing new customers to Ford and Lincoln. They will not be electric versions of our existing lineup.

我想在這裡明確一點，隨著我們的前進，我們的電動汽車設計將是進步的，它們的目標是為福特和林肯帶來新客戶。它們不會是我們現有陣容的電動版本。

Now in terms of Ford Blue, we will accelerate our restructuring and address our uncompetitive cost structure. We're going to attack complexity in areas such as powertrain. We can't wait. This work starts now. We will continue to invest in our ICE business but in targeted ways to build our most popular and profitable vehicle lines, F-Series, Bronco, Super Duty and a few others.

現在就 Ford Blue 而言，我們將加速重組並解決我們缺乏競爭力的成本結構。我們將攻擊動力系統等領域的複雜性。我們等不及了。這項工作現在開始。我們將繼續投資於我們的 ICE 業務，但有針對性地打造我們最受歡迎和最賺錢的汽車系列，F 系列、Bronco、Super Duty 和其他一些汽車系列。

Another focus is quality. We made good progress on initial quality and launches. However, we continue to be hampered by recalls and customer satisfaction actions. This has to change. We must do more to aggressively address our engineering process and improve our robustness.

另一個重點是質量。我們在初始質量和發布方面取得了良好進展。然而，我們繼續受到召回和客戶滿意度行動的阻礙。這必須改變。我們必須採取更多措施積極解決我們的工程流程並提高我們的穩健性。

Now our Ford Pro business is on track. We see healthy growth in parts sales, mechanic repairs, growth in subscriptions for both charging and telematics, and CV financing. Most importantly, we're making our customers' lives and businesses better. They're using data. They're improving their uptime and their bottom line.

現在，我們的福特 Pro 業務步入正軌。我們看到零件銷售、機械維修、充電和遠程信息處理訂閱以及 CV 融資的健康增長。最重要的是，我們正在改善客戶的生活和業務。他們正在使用數據。他們正在改善正常運行時間和底線。

Supply chain constraints continue to impact our business, including some of our key profit pillars. That said, we're making progress on launching and scaling new products as you can see with Lightning. That said, our major focus now is accelerating a more fundamental change in our supply chain management to improve visibility through our entire value chain and secure supply, especially in places like Semis and batteries.

供應鏈限制繼續影響我們的業務，包括我們的一些關鍵利潤支柱。也就是說，正如您在 Lightning 中看到的那樣，我們在推出和擴展新產品方面取得了進展。也就是說，我們現在的主要重點是加速對供應鏈管理進行更根本的變革，以提高整個價值鏈的可見性並確保供應，尤其是在半導體和電池等領域。

We're absolutely committed to unlocking value by improving our growth profile, our profitability and ability to generate sustainable cash flows from our automotive-related businesses. Our new targets include producing more than 2 million EVs in 4 short years by the end of 2026. That's about 70-plus CAGR. And we expect that by 2030, EVs will account for about 50% of our global sales.

我們絕對致力於通過改善我們的增長狀況、盈利能力以及從我們的汽車相關業務中產生可持續現金流的能力來釋放價值。我們的新目標包括到 2026 年底在短短 4 年內生產超過 200 萬輛電動汽車。這大約是 70 多倍的複合年增長率。我們預計，到 2030 年，電動汽車將占我們全球銷售額的 50% 左右。

We have also reset our profit ambition. We are now targeting 10% company-adjusted EBIT margins by 2026.

我們還重新設定了盈利目標。我們現在的目標是到 2026 年實現 10% 的公司調整後息稅前利潤率。

Now in terms of the first quarter, I would describe our performance as mixed. The appeal of our new products is really clear, and customers demand is extremely strong beyond the supply constraint of our industry. However, we are still grappling with persistent supply chain issues that prevent us from posting even stronger quarter. We're working to break constraints whenever they exist to take full advantage of this incredibly hot product lineup. Both new EVs like the F-150 Lightning but our iconic ICE vehicles as well.

現在就第一季度而言，我將我們的表現描述為喜憂參半。我們新產品的吸引力非常明顯，客戶的需求非常強烈，超出了我們行業的供應限制。但是，我們仍在努力解決持續存在的供應鏈問題，這些問題使我們無法發布更強勁的季度。我們正在努力打破限制，以充分利用這個令人難以置信的熱門產品陣容。兩款新電動汽車都像 F-150 Lightning 一樣，還有我們標誌性的 ICE 車輛。

We remain committed to delivering our targets quarter after quarter, year after year, earning your confidence along the way.

我們仍然致力於逐季、年復一年地實現我們的目標，並在此過程中贏得您的信心。

And now I'd like to turn it to John to take you through the quarter and our outlook this year.

現在我想把它交給約翰，帶你了解這個季度和我們今年的展望。

Thank you, Jim. In face of ongoing industry-wide supply chain disruption and unremitting pandemic hurdles, we continued to execute against our Ford+ plan, including strengthening our product portfolio, investing in electrification and other new and exciting opportunities, fundamental to growth and value creation.

謝謝你，吉姆。面對持續的全行業供應鏈中斷和無休止的大流行障礙，我們繼續執行我們的福特+計劃，包括加強我們的產品組合、投資電氣化和其他令人興奮的新機會，這些都是增長和價值創造的基礎。

In the first quarter, we generated $2.3 billion in adjusted EBIT, resulting in a margin of 6.7%. The year-over-year decline in total company profits was driven by higher commodity prices and lower volume and mix, partially offset by higher net pricing as we take top line pricing while remaining disciplined with our incentive spend. Importantly, our operations outside of North America were profitable.

第一季度，我們的調整後息稅前利潤為 23 億美元，利潤率為 6.7%。公司總利潤同比下降的原因是商品價格上漲以及數量和組合減少，部分被較高的淨定價所抵消，因為我們採用頂線定價，同時在激勵支出方面保持紀律。重要的是，我們在北美以外的業務是盈利的。

Global wholesales were down 9%, consistent with our guidance and reflecting the continued supply chain issues. However, our run rate of vehicle production in North America improved significantly during the month of March, and we ended the quarter with an extremely healthy order bank. In fact, in the U.S. alone, our order bank is primed to deliver about $17 billion in revenue.

全球批發量下降了 9%，與我們的指導一致，反映了持續的供應鏈問題。然而，我們在 3 月份在北美的汽車生產運行率顯著提高，並且我們在本季度結束時擁有非常健康的訂單庫。事實上，僅在美國，我們的訂單銀行就準備好提供約 170 億美元的收入。

Ford Credit delivered another strong quarter. EBT was $900 million, reflecting strong lease residuals and credit loss performance. Free cash flow was $600 million negative, more than explained by unfavorable timing differences and working capital deterioration due to the higher inventory levels, which included about 53,000 vehicles on wheels, completed but awaiting installation of components affected by the semiconductor supply shortage.

福特信貸實現了又一個強勁的季度。 EBT 為 9 億美元，反映了強勁的租賃殘差和信用損失表現。自由現金流為負 6 億美元，主要原因是由於庫存水平較高導致的不利時間差異和營運資本惡化，其中包括約 53,000 輛車輪上的車輛，已完成但正在等待安裝受半導體供應短缺影響的組件。

We ended the quarter with strong cash and liquidity, nearly $29 billion and $45 billion, respectively. This includes our stake in Rivian, which was valued at $5.1 billion at the end of the quarter. Our strong balance sheet provides a solid foundation to continue investing in our Ford+ priorities.

我們以強勁的現金和流動性結束了本季度，分別接近 290 億美元和 450 億美元。這包括我們在 Rivian 的股份，在本季度末價值 51 億美元。我們強大的資產負債表為繼續投資於我們的 Ford+ 優先事項提供了堅實的基礎。

Now let me briefly touch on business unit performance for the quarter. North America delivered $1.6 billion of EBIT with a margin of 7.1%. Now this is down year-over-year as net pricing improvements were more than offset by higher commodity costs, higher warranty expense, unfavorable mix and lower volume. The volume and mix impact primarily reflects supply constraints unique to full-size pickups in large utilities.

現在讓我簡要談談本季度業務部門的業績。北美實現了 16 億美元的息稅前利潤，利潤率為 7.1%。現在，這一數字同比下降，因為淨定價改善被商品成本上升、保修費用上升、不利的組合和銷量下降所抵消。數量和組合的影響主要反映了大型公用事業中全尺寸皮卡所特有的供應限制。

South America continues to benefit from our global redesign efforts, delivering its third consecutive profitable quarter and its highest quarterly EBIT margin in over 10 years. The region continues to focus on scaling its business for growth, especially pickup trucks and commercial vehicles.

南美洲繼續受益於我們的全球重新設計工作，實現了連續第三個盈利季度和 10 多年來最高的季度息稅前利潤率。該地區繼續專注於擴大業務以實現增長，尤其是皮卡車和商用車。

In Europe, our operations delivered an EBIT margin of 3% despite a 9% decline in volumes. The underlying trajectory of our business continues to improve. However, the adverse impact of the near-term supply chain disruption is dampening our overall results.

在歐洲，儘管銷量下降了 9%，但我們的業務實現了 3% 的息稅前利潤率。我們業務的基本軌跡繼續改善。然而，近期供應鏈中斷的不利影響正在抑制我們的整體業績。

Importantly, we continue to be the #1 commercial vehicle brand in Europe. The transit has an extremely healthy order bank, and we recently launched the all-electric E-Transit in Turkey. FORDLiive continues to grow, helping our commercial customers improve vehicle uptime and, ultimately, their bottom line.

重要的是，我們繼續成為歐洲排名第一的商用車品牌。公交有一個非常健康的訂單庫，我們最近在土耳其推出了全電動 E-Transit。 FORDLiive 繼續增長，幫助我們的商業客戶提高車輛正常運行時間，並最終提高他們的利潤。

And finally, Mustang Mach-E is now being sold online in most major markets. Europe is building momentum towards a fully electric future, expecting to reach 600,000 vehicles by the end of 2026.

最後，Mustang Mach-E 現已在大多數主要市場在線銷售。歐洲正在為實現全電動未來發展勢頭，預計到 2026 年底將達到 600,000 輛汽車。

In China, we posted a moderate loss in the quarter. However, our cost performance improved on both a year-over-year and sequential basis. Lincoln continues to be a bright spot and profit pillar for the region. Market share improved 20 basis points year-over-year, and the all-new Zephyr is off to a fast start. In the first quarter, China also continued to make progress towards our electrification strategy. We opened 10 more customer experience centers, now 35 in total, and made other investments to modernize our direct-to-consumer network.

在中國，我們在本季度錄得適度虧損。然而，我們的成本績效同比和環比都有所提高。林肯繼續成為該地區的亮點和利潤支柱。市場份額同比增長 20 個基點，全新的 Zephyr 快速起步。第一季度，中國的電氣化戰略也繼續取得進展。我們又開設了 10 個客戶體驗中心，現在總共 35 個，並進行了其他投資以使我們的直接面向消費者的網絡現代化。

Our International Markets Group performed well in the first quarter, continuing to be solidly profitable despite supply constraints and suspension of our joint venture operations in Russia. The upcoming launch of the next-generation Ranger remains on track. And in March, we unveiled the next-generation Ranger Raptor and Everest.

我們的國際市場集團在第一季度表現良好，儘管供應受限且我們在俄羅斯的合資企業暫停運營，但仍繼續保持穩定盈利。即將推出的下一代 Ranger 仍在按計劃進行。 3 月，我們推出了下一代 Ranger Raptor 和 Everest。

And finally, in Mobility, we continue to make steady progress towards scale commercialization of moving people and moving goods. In the first quarter, we divested our investments in both TransLoc and Spin, further rationalizing our portfolio with a focus on autonomous development.

最後，在移動性方面，我們繼續在移動人員和移動貨物的規模商業化方面取得穩步進展。在第一季度，我們剝離了對 TransLoc 和 Spin 的投資，進一步合理化了我們的投資組合，專注於自主開發。

And now I'll share with you our current thinking about the remainder of 2022. For the full year, our guidance is unchanged. We expect to earn between $11.5 billion and $12.5 billion in adjusted EBIT, which is up 15% to 25% from 2021, with adjusted free cash flow of $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion. This reflects year-over-year growth in wholesales of 10% to 15% and assumes that semiconductor availability will improve in the second half, including the constraints that adversely impacted our full-size pickups and large utilities in North America in Q1. We also assumed in our guidance that disruptions in the supply chain and local vehicle manufacturing operations resulting from the renewed COVID-related health concerns and lockdowns in China do not further deteriorate our supply chains.

現在，我將與您分享我們目前對 2022 年剩餘時間的看法。全年，我們的指導保持不變。我們預計調整後息稅前利潤將在 115 億美元至 125 億美元之間，比 2021 年增長 15% 至 25%，調整後的自由現金流為 55 億美元至 65 億美元。這反映了批發量同比增長 10% 至 15%，並假設半導體可用性將在下半年有所改善，包括對我們第一季度在北美的全尺寸皮卡和大型公用事業公司產生不利影響的限制因素。我們還在指導中假設，由於新冠病毒相關的健康問題和中國新的封鎖導致供應鍊和當地汽車製造業務的中斷不會進一步惡化我們的供應鏈。

Now relative to adjusted EBIT. On a year-over-year basis, our range assumes significantly higher profits in North America and collective profitability outside of North America. We also expect Ford Credit EBT to be strong but lower than 2021, and Mobility and corporate other EBIT to be roughly flat.

現在相對於調整後的息稅前利潤。與去年同期相比，我們的範圍假設北美的利潤顯著提高，而北美以外的集體盈利能力則顯著提高。我們還預計福特信貸 EBT 將強勁但低於 2021 年，而 Mobility 和企業其他 EBIT 將大致持平。

Other assumptions factored into our guidance include: first, we have a very strong order bank, as Jim mentioned, for our new iconic products such as Bronco, Bronco Sport, Maverick, along with a robust EV lineup Mustang Mach-E, E-Transit, F-150 Lightning now in production as well; second, pent-up demand beyond our order bank, a continued strong pricing environment, including the benefit of pricing actions taken in the first quarter and improved mix. The interplay role between volume and pricing will remain dynamic.

我們的指導中考慮的其他假設包括：首先，正如 Jim 所提到的，我們有一個非常強大的訂單庫，用於我們的新標誌性產品，如 Bronco、Bronco Sport、Maverick，以及強大的 EV 陣容 Mustang Mach-E、E-Transit , F-150 Lightning 也在生產中；其次，我們的訂單庫之外的被壓抑的需求，持續強勁的定價環境，包括第一季度採取的定價行動和改善組合的好處。數量和定價之間的相互作用將保持動態。

And third, we expect commodity headwinds of about $4 billion, which we expect to offset by improvements in net pricing and mix. Fourth, we anticipate other inflationary pressures to continue impacting a broad range of costs. We are aggressively looking at all opportunities to offset this reality, including aggressively ramping up our efforts on additional cost reductions. And fifth, at Ford Credit, we expect auction values to remain strong as supply constraints persist. However, as I mentioned, we anticipate strong but lower EBT, reflecting primarily the nonrecurrence of reserve release, fewer return off-lease vehicles and more normalized credit losses.

第三，我們預計商品逆風約為 40 億美元，我們預計這將被淨定價和組合的改善所抵消。第四，我們預計其他通脹壓力將繼續影響廣泛的成本。我們正在積極尋找所有機會來抵消這一現實，包括積極加大力度降低額外成本。第五，在福特信貸，我們預計隨著供應限制的持續存在，拍賣價值將保持強勁。然而，正如我所提到的，我們預計 EBT 強勁但較低，這主要反映了準備金釋放的非經常性、更少的退租工具和更多的標準化信貸損失。

Our results in the quarter, our balance-of-year outlook and commitment to our medium-term targets demonstrate the power of our Ford+ plan as we continue to invest aggressively to drive growth and value creation. This includes devoting resources to customer-facing technology, connectivity, our always on relationships with customers and electrification. We are confident the long-term payback from these investments will be substantial.

我們在本季度的業績、我們的年度平衡展望和對中期目標的承諾證明了我們福特+計劃的力量，因為我們將繼續積極投資以推動增長和價值創造。這包括將資源投入到面向客戶的技術、連接性、我們始終與客戶的關係和電氣化上。我們相信，這些投資的長期回報將是可觀的。

So that wraps up our prepared remarks. We'll use the balance of the time to hear your questions and address what's on your mind. And so thank you. Operator, please open the line for questions.

這樣就結束了我們準備好的評論。我們將利用剩餘的時間來聽取您的問題並解決您的想法。所以謝謝你。接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Rod Lache of Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

First, I wanted to ask you about inflation. Price versus cost is obviously a pretty big drag here, and I assume that you would expect inflation to stick around for a while. I was hoping you might talk a little bit about how that's influencing your decision-making, your internal messaging.

首先，我想問你關於通貨膨脹的問題。價格與成本顯然是一個相當大的拖累，我假設你會預計通脹會持續一段時間。我希望你能談談這如何影響你的決策，你的內部信息。

What is, in your view, going to be the interplay between price and volume as volume and inventory starts to normalize? Is there still pricing power after everything you've achieved over the past couple of years? And does this affect your margin targets?

在您看來，隨著數量和庫存開始正常化，價格和數量之間的相互作用會是什麼？在您過去幾年取得的一切成就之後，您是否還有定價權？這會影響您的保證金目標嗎？

Rod, thank you for your question. Obviously, we're seeing on the commodity side, steel, aluminum, copper, lithium, nickel. On the logistics side, a lot of premium freight. We're seeing pressures on inflation from suppliers. So it's really across the board.

羅德，謝謝你的提問。顯然，我們在商品方面看到了鋼、鋁、銅、鋰、鎳。在物流方面，有很多溢價運費。我們看到來自供應商的通脹壓力。所以它真的是全面的。

I'll let John answer the pricing question, but I would say we really have quite a bit of pricing we've recently put in the market. It's stuck. And in addition, we feel like we have a lot of cost upside as well in the company. I know that's not your question, but that's an opportunity. John?

我會讓約翰回答定價問題，但我會說我們確實有很多我們最近投放市場的定價。它卡住了。此外，我們覺得公司也有很多成本上升空間。我知道這不是你的問題，但這是一個機會。約翰？

Yes. From a pricing standpoint, so far, we have seen pricing just about offset the inflationary pressures that we've seen. And so we've been aggressive with top line. We've been balanced with the incentives. We do expect the commodity inflation, as Jim said, to continue through the year. So the pricing that we've taken reflects that. And so I would say that we've been aggressive so far starting last year from a pricing standpoint.

是的。從定價的角度來看，到目前為止，我們已經看到定價幾乎抵消了我們所看到的通脹壓力。所以我們在頂線方面一直很激進。我們已經平衡了激勵措施。正如吉姆所說，我們確實預計商品通脹將持續到今年。所以我們採取的定價反映了這一點。所以我想說，從定價的角度來看，從去年開始，我們一直很積極。

I would also say that the dynamic between the volumes and the pricing is going to remain in flux. And as we go through the rest of this year, and volumes improve, we have assumed that in the second half, you would see increased pressure on your incentives, and that's assumed in our guidance.

我還要說，數量和定價之間的動態將繼續變化。隨著我們今年餘下時間的推移，交易量有所增加，我們假設在下半年，你會看到激勵措施的壓力增加，這在我們的指導中是假設的。

I would also say, Rod, that right now, many of the dealers are transacting near or above MSRP across the industry. So that has to be a compression that's going to happen first on the pricing front. And we're watching that very closely.

我還要說，羅德，現在，許多經銷商的交易價格接近或高於整個行業的建議零售價。所以這必須是首先在定價方面發生的壓縮。我們正在密切關注這一點。

We've also taken actions where we can improve our pricing by work we've done with our dealers. So one of the things we did in the quarter is we adjusted our floor plan adjustment to the dealers. In the past, we had paid them 1.5% of MSRP to cover the floor plan, the carrying cost. And we've adjusted that to about 75 days of the actual cost up to 75 days. So that's been a benefit that's flowing through our pricing as well. So we see it as dynamic.

我們還採取了一些行動，可以通過與經銷商合作來提高定價。因此，我們在本季度所做的其中一件事是我們調整了經銷商的平面圖調整。過去，我們向他們支付了建議零售價的 1.5% 來支付平面圖、運輸成本。我們已將其調整為實際成本的大約 75 天，最多 75 天。因此，這也是通過我們的定價產生的好處。所以我們認為它是動態的。

We do agree that as volumes increase, it will be dynamic relative to incentives. We're not pollyannish about that. We've reflected what we think is appropriate in the second half relative to incentives to adjust for the volume that we see coming in, but we'll also be aggressive on pricing. If commodity -- if commodities keep going up, we'll be aggressive as we can. So I think it's going to be a dynamic play as we go through the rest of the year.

我們確實同意，隨著數量的增加，相對於激勵措施而言，它將是動態的。我們對此不以為然。我們已經反映了我們認為在下半年相對於我們看到的數量調整的激勵措施是合適的，但我們也會在定價方面積極進取。如果大宗商品——如果大宗商品繼續上漲，我們將盡可能地積極進取。所以我認為隨著我們在今年剩下的時間裡，這將是一場充滿活力的比賽。

I would say, though, that when we step back and we look at the pricing relative to 2020 model year -- what we've taken since 2020 model year, we'd have to increase incentives considerably to offset that pricing. On a run rate basis, they'd have to move from -- I think, we're in single digits -- today, low single digits. They have to move up into like 16% -- 15%, 16% to offset that pricing. So -- and that's back at a time when we had extremely high inventories, and we had a very push-through process, and we're not going to go back to that. We're going to be very disciplined with our inventory. So...

不過，我想說的是，當我們退後一步，看看相對於 2020 年車型年的定價——我們自 2020 年車型年以來採取的價格時，我們必須大幅增加激勵措施以抵消該定價。在運行率的基礎上，他們必須從 - 我認為，我們是個位數 - 今天，低個位數。他們必須提高到 16% - 15%、16% 才能抵消該定價。所以 - 那是在我們庫存非常高的時候，我們有一個非常推進的過程，我們不會回到那個時候。我們將非常嚴格地處理我們的庫存。所以...

Percent of revenue.

收入的百分比。

Yes, as a percent of revenue. And so we're working costs. We're working all the angles.

是的，佔收入的百分比。所以我們正在計算工作成本。我們正在各個角度工作。

And any color on the outlook for Europe for the rest of this year just given all of the macro pressures there? It looks you've been posting pretty solid results there recently.

鑑於那裡的所有宏觀壓力，今年餘下時間歐洲的前景有什麼顏色嗎？看起來你最近在那裡發布了相當可靠的結果。

Yes. We expect those results to continue. We were in Europe, hampered by the supply chain reductions. But it was nice to see that even though we were hit by that, Europe did post a better-than-expected quarter for us. So we're continuing to do well in commercial vehicles. We launched the E-Transit, which has been very well received. Mustang Mach-E has been very well received as well. So we do expect the business in Europe to continue to improve in the second half as the rate and flow of supply improves for them as well.

是的。我們預計這些結果將繼續下去。我們在歐洲，受到供應鏈減少的阻礙。但很高興看到，儘管我們受到了打擊，但歐洲確實為我們發布了一個好於預期的季度。因此，我們在商用車方面繼續做得很好。我們推出了 E-Transit，深受好評。 Mustang Mach-E 也很受歡迎。因此，我們確實預計歐洲的業務將在下半年繼續改善，因為他們的供應速度和流量也會有所改善。

The next question comes from John Murphy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美銀美林的約翰·墨菲。

I just wanted to ask a question sort of on the growth side, Jim. I mean the F-150 Lightning orders, it sounds like they're mostly incremental buyers, folks that haven't been Ford or F-150 buyers before. I'm just curious if you think that is just sort of a surge here at the launch of the truck or is this sort of 15% to 20% sort of incremental orders relative to the base F-150, something you think will stick around?

我只是想問一個關於增長方面的問題，吉姆。我的意思是 F-150 閃電訂單，聽起來他們大多是增量買家，以前不是福特或 F-150 買家的人。我只是好奇您是否認為這只是卡車發佈時的激增，或者相對於基本 F-150 的這種 15% 到 20% 的增量訂單，您認為這種情況會一直存在?

I mean because, obviously, that's very powerful potentially to your earnings. And do you expect the profitability of this truck over time to have a variable margin that would be similar to the F-150? I think sort of being even a little bit more verbose, do you expect the same kind of thing with the 250, 350 Lightning, which you'll launch in 2 or 3 years?

我的意思是因為，很明顯，這對你的收入有很大的潛在影響。您是否預計隨著時間的推移，這輛卡車的盈利能力會出現類似於 F-150 的可變利潤率？我認為有點冗長，你是否期望在 2 或 3 年內推出的 250、350 Lightning 也會出現同樣的情況？

Well, I didn't know we announced that, but thank you very much for your question. I'd like to maybe ask Doug to come in here and talk about the levers we have on the profit side. But so far, it's very clear to us that the Lightning customers are incremental. And as you said, it's early days. We capacitized in the end of the day the facility that we were in is about 80,000 units. We'll almost double that by the end of next year.

好吧，我不知道我們宣布了這一點，但非常感謝您的提問。我想請 Doug 來這裡談談我們在利潤方面的槓桿。但到目前為止，我們很清楚 Lightning 客戶是增量的。正如你所說，現在還為時過早。最終，我們所在的設施容量約為 80,000 個單位。到明年年底，我們將幾乎翻倍。

And I would say at this point, the customer profile is dramatically younger. It's in states like California and New York that we normally don't sell full-size trucks. We do have some -- lots of orders in Texas. It's a higher education that we see. And what they're interested in is different about the truck. So I think it's very clearly, so far, incremental.

在這一點上，我想說的是，客戶檔案要年輕得多。在加利福尼亞和紐約等州，我們通常不銷售全尺寸卡車。我們在得克薩斯州確實有一些 - 很多訂單。這是我們看到的高等教育。他們對卡車感興趣的是不同的。所以我認為到目前為止，它是非常清楚的，增量的。

Now when we get into volume production, 150,000 units, that may change. And we'll see that with the order as we order -- open the order bank again for the next model year this summer.

現在，當我們開始批量生產 150,000 台時，情況可能會改變。我們將在訂購時看到這一點——今年夏天再次打開下一個車型年的訂單庫。

Doug, do you want to highlight the opportunities you see maybe on F-150 Lightning but more generically on our next product?

道格，您想強調一下您可能在 F-150 Lightning 上看到的機會，但更籠統地說是在我們的下一個產品上？

Sure. To start with, I'm really excited about what we're building off of in Ford Strength. These are cost bases that I'm drooling over in terms of the future products. But when we talk about EV specifically, the first thing we have to do is really control the battery materials and the chemistry there, the single largest build materials opportunity, of course. But the next is really obsessing over how we use those materials and chemistries. Energy efficiency is a religion, and the team is really stepping up to this. Every single watt of consumption is now being tracked and optimized.

當然。首先，我對我們在福特力量中所建立的東西感到非常興奮。這些是我對未來產品垂涎三尺的成本基礎。但是當我們具體談論電動汽車時，我們要做的第一件事就是真正控制電池材料和那裡的化學成分，當然，這是最大的構建材料機會。但接下來是真正痴迷於我們如何使用這些材料和化學物質。能源效率是一種信仰，團隊確實在努力實現這一目標。現在正在跟踪和優化每一瓦的消耗。

And on the new programs, changes in aerodynamics and drive unit optimization, we're seeing dozens of miles of improvement in range. That's hundreds and even, in some cases, thousands of dollars of battery that we can take out.

在新計劃、空氣動力學變化和驅動單元優化方面，我們看到了數十英里的航程改進。我們可以取出數百甚至數千美元的電池。

Finally, I think really going after a true ground-up approach to how we build EVs. They're different than internal combustion vehicles. And you could take advantage of that and really change the number of them.

最後，我認為真正採用真正的全新方法來構建電動汽車。它們不同於內燃機汽車。你可以利用這一點，真正改變它們的數量。

In our next F-Series EV factory, we're going to have on the main line half the stations that we use today to build a Lightning. So I'm very optimistic with this journey that we have some really good ground to make up on margin.

在我們的下一個 F 系列電動汽車工廠中，我們將在主線上擁有我們今天用來建造閃電的一半車站。所以我對這段旅程非常樂觀，我們有一些非常好的基礎可以彌補利潤。

John...

約翰...

Actually can I just ask one follow...

其實我可以問一個關注...

Go ahead. Go ahead, John.

前進。來吧，約翰。

No. Keep going, Jim. Sorry, I had a follow-up on...

不，繼續前進，吉姆。對不起，我有後續...

I just wanted to say on the Super Duty, obviously, that's a quarter of profitability as a company globally. And when we look at the customer usage, we just don't feel at this point that an electric solution is going to be ideal for most of those customers. So our vehicles, plural, will be really focused on Light Duty and the lower end of Super Duty for sure. But not 250s, 350s, 450s. That's a whole different ball of wax. They require a lot of payload -- heavy batteries, that doesn't make sense.

我只是想在 Super Duty 上說，顯然，這是全球公司盈利能力的四分之一。當我們查看客戶的使用情況時，我們現在並不認為電動解決方案會成為大多數客戶的理想選擇。因此，我們的車輛，複數，肯定會真正專注於輕型和低端的 Super Duty。但不是 250、350、450。那是一個完全不同的蠟球。它們需要大量的有效載荷——沉重的電池，這沒有意義。

Got it. And I'm sorry, a follow-up on the 53,000 units that are in inventory on wheels. Is that what we're seeing in this 21% increase in inventory on the balance sheet from the fourth quarter to the first quarter? And presumably, the cost has not been accounted for at all here, and we'll see those vehicles flush out to the system in the second or third quarter when the chips become available. I'm just trying to understand, John Lawler, the economics and what the profitability boost may be from these vehicles flowing out. Could you just kind of explain sort of how you're accounting for this and what the benefit might be in the second and third or fourth quarter when they actually are finished?

知道了。我很抱歉，對車輪庫存中的 53,000 個單位進行跟進。從第四季度到第一季度，資產負債表上的庫存增加了 21%，這就是我們所看到的嗎？據推測，這裡根本沒有考慮成本，當芯片可用時，我們將在第二或第三季度看到這些車輛湧入系統。我只是想了解，約翰勞勒，經濟學以及這些車輛流出可能帶來的盈利能力提升。您能否解釋一下您是如何解釋這一點的，以及在第二季度、第三季度或第四季度實際完成時可能帶來的好處？

Yes. So John, that's exactly right. that's what's hitting us from a cash standpoint. And the inventory increases is, for the most part, the vehicles on wheels, 53,000 units. We have a cost for those in our results, but we have no revenue for them. And as they build out and we complete them in this quarter and into the third quarter, we'll start to get the results for that to the bottom line.

是的。所以約翰，這是完全正確的。從現金的角度來看，這就是打擊我們的原因。庫存增加的大部分是車輪上的車輛，53,000 輛。我們為結果中的那些人付出了代價，但我們沒有為他們帶來收入。隨著它們的發展，我們在本季度和第三季度完成它們，我們將開始將結果歸結為底線。

And then we're -- primarily are more profitable vehicles, and it's primarily F-Series and Explorer. So there's definitely an opportunity there that will start to roll through the bottom line once we start shipping those out.

然後我們 - 主要是利潤更高的車輛，主要是 F 系列和 Explorer。因此，一旦我們開始運送這些產品，肯定會有機會開始突破底線。

And the reason why -- one of the reasons why we built those, John, because the modifications we need to make, we're very confident we can do that without compromising quality. But our production is fully subscribed. So we would have lost these units if we hadn't built them and set them aside until the chips were available.

以及為什麼 - 我們構建這些的原因之一，約翰，因為我們需要進行修改，我們非常有信心我們可以在不影響質量的情況下做到這一點。但我們的產品已完全訂閱。因此，如果我們沒有建造它們並將它們放在一邊直到芯片可用，我們就會丟失這些單元。

I'm sorry, John, the costs are recognized in the first quarter results, but obviously, the revenue is not? I'm just trying to understand this because it sounds like it might have a big impact in sort of people's understanding of the cadence of earnings through the course of the year.

對不起，約翰，成本是在第一季度的結果中確認的，但顯然，收入不是？我只是想理解這一點，因為這聽起來可能會對人們對全年收入節奏的理解產生重大影響。

No. The profits aren't recognized in the quarter, right? But the costs we backed out like for labor, et cetera, that's been all backed out. That's in inventory.

不，這個季度的利潤沒有被確認，對吧？但是我們取消的成本，比如勞動力等等，都被取消了。那是在庫存中。

The next question comes from Colin Langan of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

As you mentioned, the EV battery costs have really dramatically increased. Has that changed your EV strategy at all? Do you think you're going to need to maybe raise the pricing of the Lightning and the Mach-E? And what can you do about it or maybe switch to different chemistries, roll out more hybrid? How can you address it if raw materials stay at these very high levels for that, those battery materials?

正如您所提到的，電動汽車電池的成本確實大幅增加。這是否完全改變了您的電動汽車戰略？你認為你可能需要提高 Lightning 和 Mach-E 的價格嗎？你能做些什麼呢，或者可能切換到不同的化學物質，推出更多的混合動力？如果原材料保持在非常高的水平，那些電池材料，你怎麼能解決這個問題？

Thank you for your question. Well, first of all, the demand for EVs right now is extremely robust at Ford. So we have the opportunity, we believe, for pricing. We're not going to get into those details now. But Doug said something very important, Colin, I want to emphasize, which is battery chemistry. We believe very strongly at Ford. The chemistry we have really key part of our protection against commodity price increases and, frankly, the benefits to the customer. Doug, do you want to add anything?

謝謝你的問題。嗯，首先，福特目前對電動汽車的需求非常強勁。因此，我們相信，我們有機會定價。我們現在不打算討論這些細節。但是道格說了一些非常重要的事情，科林，我想強調一下，那就是電池化學。我們堅信福特。我們所擁有的化學成分確實是我們防止商品價格上漲的關鍵部分，坦率地說，是對客戶的好處。道格，你想補充什麼嗎？

No. Ford, a number of years ago, started Ion Park, which is a team of experts really focusing on chemistry. Lithium-iron phosphate, of course, we know from the industry is something that takes you away from the dependence on nickel. That will be a part of our future, and we're also looking at chemistries that give us an opportunity to be less dependent on the specific materials that everyone seems to be fighting over in the market.

不。福特幾年前創立了離子公園，這是一個真正專注於化學的專家團隊。當然，我們從行業中知道，磷酸鐵鋰可以讓您擺脫對鎳的依賴。這將是我們未來的一部分，我們也在研究能夠讓我們有機會減少對市場上似乎每個人都在爭奪的特定材料的依賴的化學物質。

So in the short term, we...

所以在短期內，我們...

Can you switch to LFP?

可以轉LFP嗎？

Go ahead with your question. Sorry, Colin.

繼續你的問題。對不起，科林。

Yes. I was just going to say you mentioned you're able to do LFP or that's in the plan. I mean how quickly can you switch because nickel is spiked now? I mean I'm just kind of wondering how flexible and how quick you could adapt to that $2 million target by 2025.

是的。我只是想說你提到你能夠做 LFP 或者這在計劃中。我的意思是你能多快轉換，因為現在鎳被加價了？我的意思是，我只是想知道到 2025 年，你能以多靈活和多快的速度適應 200 萬美元的目標。

Yes. We've been working on LFP for quite some time. So let's just leave it at that. What I mean by that is engineering LFP solutions in our first generation of products, something that we see is a big opportunity and to move quickly.

是的。我們已經在 LFP 上工作了一段時間。所以讓我們就這樣吧。我的意思是在我們的第一代產品中設計 LFP 解決方案，我們認為這是一個巨大的機會並且可以迅速採取行動。

Got it. And just second question, you mentioned in your comments about warranty costs, and that was going to be a big driver of margins. It does look like it was up year-over-year. Is that just sort of a temporary blip in the quarter? Or is there a structural issue that we're going to see some higher elevated warranty through the rest of the year?

知道了。只是第二個問題，您在評論中提到了保修成本，這將是利潤率的一大推動力。看起來確實是逐年上漲。這只是本季度的暫時現象嗎？或者是否存在結構性問題，我們將在今年剩餘時間內看到更高的保修期？

Yes. Colin, thanks for the question. When we had our Capital Markets Day event, we signaled that we were targeting $1 billion to $2 billion of warranty opportunity by the mid-decade. In '21, we delivered $1.4 billion of that. So roughly 70% of that total opportunity. When you look at Q1 of this year, we had a deterioration. Some of that was just a non-repeat of items that we recognized in '21 that didn't flow through. This is still a huge opportunity for us.

是的。科林，謝謝你的問題。當我們舉辦資本市場日活動時，我們表示我們的目標是到十年中期獲得 10 億至 20 億美元的保修機會。在 21 年，我們交付了 14 億美元。因此，大約佔總機會的 70%。當您查看今年第一季度時，我們的情況有所惡化。其中一些只是我們在 21 年認識到的沒有通過的項目的不重複。這對我們來說仍然是一個巨大的機會。

It's the #1 priority for us. As for my team as a skill team is really focusing on improving quality, warranty as well as recall performance, not only because of the drag on the business, but more importantly, because of the impact on our customers. So this is something that we're really focused on.

這是我們的第一要務。至於我的團隊，作為一個技能團隊，真正專注於提高質量、保修和召回性能，不僅因為拖累了業務，更重要的是因為對我們的客戶的影響。所以這是我們真正關注的事情。

And as Jim and others highlighted earlier, it's a huge opportunity for us to eliminate waste within the company and offset some of those commodity and headwind costs that we discussed earlier.

正如 Jim 和其他人早些時候強調的那樣，這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會，可以消除公司內部的浪費並抵消我們之前討論的一些商品和逆風成本。

The next question comes from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Is Lisa Drake on the call?

麗莎德雷克在電話中嗎？

No. No. But Doug is here. Okay. I'll pass it on to her.

不，不，但是道格來了。好的。我會轉給她的。

We've got great people on the call. We're good. First, I noted the Lilac Solutions partnership, that's a really, really good call here and a lot of really great things. So we had great job there.

我們有很棒的人在通話。我們很好。首先，我注意到 Lilac Solutions 的合作夥伴關係，這是一個非常非常好的電話，還有很多非常棒的事情。所以我們在那裡做得很好。

If you could imagine that the entire metal and mining industry, we're listening to this call right now, and we really should be. What would your message right now, Jim?

如果你能想像整個金屬和採礦業，我們現在正在聽這個電話，我們真的應該聽。吉姆，你現在要傳達什麼信息？

The message would be we need to work together and find good deals. That's what the message would be that we know what we're looking for. We're focused on lithium and nickel, those 2. We want to do smart deals that work for them and for us. And number two, we want to move some of the processing in North America. And we're willing to invest capital to move the processing precursor work from overseas to North America for a variety of reasons. Doug, would you edit that list?

傳達的信息是我們需要共同努力並找到好的交易。這就是我們知道我們在尋找什麼的信息。我們專注於鋰和鎳，這兩種。我們想做對他們和我們都有效的明智交易。第二，我們希望將部分處理轉移到北美。出於各種原因，我們願意投資資金將加工前體工作從海外轉移到北美。道格，你會編輯那個列表嗎？

No. I think that's the right list.

不，我認為這是正確的清單。

The right list. And just my follow-up, Ford Credit side. You guys are massive, extraordinarily well-managed portfolio in a market that at least historically can react to oil shocks and economic pressures, of course, over time. And we're seeing some pretty crazy changes in the market. Just for the record, any sign of pressure in the portfolio in terms of delinquencies, loan losses, basically the strength in the consumer that you so very credibly and powerful can comment on as an economic indicator for this audience?

正確的清單。只是我的後續行動，福特信貸方面。在這個市場上，你們是龐大的、管理得非常好的投資組合，至少在歷史上可以對石油衝擊和經濟壓力做出反應，當然，隨著時間的推移。我們在市場上看到了一些非常瘋狂的變化。僅作記錄，在拖欠、貸款損失方面，投資組合中是否有任何壓力跡象，基本上是您非常可信和強大的消費者實力，可以作為該受眾的經濟指標發表評論？

Adam, it's Marion Harris here. The short answer is no. We're seeing strength in delinquencies. They're up marginally versus last year but still well below anything we've seen. And a lot of that's on the back of strong used car values, which we expect to remain strong for some period of time.

亞當，這裡是瑪麗恩·哈里斯。最簡潔的答案是不。我們在拖欠方面看到了力量。與去年相比，它們略有上升，但仍遠低於我們所看到的任何水平。其中很大一部分是基於強勁的二手車價值，我們預計這將在一段時間內保持強勁。

And you're even getting into the gas price piece of this. One of the things we've been looking at is whether or not there is a change in auction values by segment. And we're not seeing any differences in prices or price movements for large SUVs versus smaller sedans. So the trends continue, and we still feel very good about the Credit business.

而且你甚至進入了汽油價格部分。我們一直在關注的一件事是按細分市場劃分的拍賣價值是否發生變化。而且我們沒有看到大型 SUV 與小型轎車的價格或價格變動有任何差異。因此，趨勢仍在繼續，我們仍然對信貸業務感到非常滿意。

The next question comes from Dan Levy of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

First question is just on the guidance. So we know you're maintaining the guide of $11.5 billion and $12.5 billion, but you've also said you're guiding to now $2 billion to $2.5 billion of higher raw mat. Europe is a choppier environment. China is a choppier environment. And then there is also other inflationary pressures that aren't in that raw mat guide. So I just want to understand what is the full set of offset to that. You've talked about price, but maybe you could just talk how that compares to maybe other cost offsets that will allow you to maintain your guide despite those incremental headwinds.

第一個問題只是關於指導。因此，我們知道您維持 115 億美元和 125 億美元的指導，但您也說過您現在指導 20 億至 25 億美元的更高生墊。歐洲是一個動蕩的環境。中國是一個動蕩的環境。然後還有其他通脹壓力不在原始墊指南中。所以我只想了解什麼是完整的偏移量。你已經談到了價格，但也許你可以談談它與其他成本補償相比如何，儘管有這些增加的逆風，你仍然可以維持你的指南。

Yes. Dan, thanks. So price is the main offset there for the full year, pricing offsetting the inflationary pressures that we're seeing. We are being very aggressive in ramping up additional cost efforts because we know that this is not going to -- we don't believe that the pressure on cost due to inflationary pressures is going to ease anytime soon. So we need to find more efficiencies. We need to improve productivity. And Jim and the team and we are working very hard on that. It's a priority for us.

是的。丹，謝謝。因此，價格是全年的主要抵消因素，價格抵消了我們所看到的通脹壓力。我們正在非常積極地加大額外的成本努力，因為我們知道這不會——我們認為通脹壓力導致的成本壓力不會很快緩解。所以我們需要找到更多的效率。我們需要提高生產力。吉姆和團隊以及我們正在為此努力。這是我們的首要任務。

So the other thing that we have is in the second half of the year, we do have volumes improving based on the better availability of Semis as we see that through the system. So that's another big driver for us in the year. And we'll see that in the second half over the first half as that comes online.

所以我們所擁有的另一件事是在下半年，我們確實會根據 Semis 更好的可用性提高銷量，正如我們通過系統看到的那樣。所以這是我們今年的另一個重要推動力。隨著上線，我們將在下半年看到這一點。

So Hau, do you want to talk a little bit about how you're seeing that and what we've been doing to manage that?

那麼，Hau，你想談談你是如何看待這一點的，以及我們一直在做些什麼來管理它？

Yes. Thanks, John. So as John mentioned in his remarks, in March, we had the highest production run rate that we've seen, frankly, in the last couple of quarters. That's the result of a lot of hard work with all of our suppliers at every level of the value chain to break constraints, ensure that we're getting our fair allocation as well as expediting freight to pull ahead some of the available supply.

是的。謝謝，約翰。因此，正如約翰在他的講話中提到的那樣，坦率地說，在過去幾個季度中，我們在 3 月份實現了最高的生產運行率。這是我們在價值鏈各個層面與所有供應商進行大量艱苦工作以打破限制、確保我們得到公平分配以及加快貨運以提前獲得一些可用供應的結果。

In parallel, the design actions that we've taken over the past year to design our way out of some of these constraints are coming online. And if you guys reflect on last year, many of our wafer and chip suppliers started implementing capacity actions, and those are also coming on in the back end of the year. So that's what's giving us the increased confidence around the guidance that John highlighted.

與此同時，我們在過去一年中為擺脫其中一些限製而採取的設計行動正在上線。如果你們回顧去年，我們的許多晶圓和芯片供應商開始實施產能行動，而且這些行動也將在今年年底實施。這就是讓我們對約翰強調的指導更有信心的原因。

And the other thing I would add is that the demand, as Jim said earlier, is very strong for our new products, and that's encouraging for us. We just can't build enough of them, and we see that demand continuing.

我要補充的另一件事是，正如 Jim 之前所說，對我們的新產品的需求非常強勁，這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。我們只是無法建造足夠的它們，而且我們看到這種需求仍在繼續。

And the mix assumption within this?

以及其中的混合假設？

The mix assumption is that we'll revert back to a normal run rate mix that we would expect to see. We were disproportionately hit in the first quarter by a commodity, a module, and Hau can talk more about that. He's better to talk about it than I -- than me than I can. And his -- the team has worked through that. So we believe we have that resolved. So we should see a more normal run rate of our mix as we move forward.

混合假設是我們將恢復到我們期望看到的正常運行率混合。我們在第一季度受到了一種商品、一個模塊的不成比例的打擊，Hau 可以談論更多。他比我更願意談論這件事——比我比我還好。他的團隊已經解決了這個問題。所以我們相信我們已經解決了這個問題。因此，隨著我們的前進，我們應該會看到更正常的混音運行率。

Hau, do you want to comment on that specific comment because I -- commodity -- because I think it is really material.

Hau，你想評論那個具體的評論嗎，因為我——商品——因為我認為它真的很重要。

Yes. So we had a wiper module that was deployed on our most profitable vehicle lines, as John mentioned, our large pickup trucks and utilities in North America. So we had limited ability to do any mix management and flex with other lower-profit vehicle lines. That issue has been resolved. We've designed our way out of it. And again, we have a line of sight to not only support the back half of the year production, but also address some of the vehicle on wheels with that commodity.

是的。所以我們有一個雨刮器模塊，它部署在我們最賺錢的車輛生產線上，正如約翰所說，我們在北美的大型皮卡車和公用事業。因此，我們在進行任何混合管理以及與其他利潤較低的汽車生產線進行靈活調整方面的能力有限。那個問題已經解決了。我們已經設計了擺脫它的方法。再說一次，我們不僅可以支持下半年的生產，還可以使用該商品解決一些車輪上的車輛問題。

Great. And then my second question is just as we think about the costs that are coming online, I think you've discussed in the past that really -- and you've done this in your reorg, that Blue is going to be on Model e. So in a good market, it's very easy to see how incremental profits from the core combustion business are funding your EV growth. But now that we have more costs that are coming into the system, maybe you can give us a sense how you're looking at your growth investments.

偉大的。然後我的第二個問題是，正如我們考慮即將上線的成本一樣，我認為你過去確實討論過——而且你已經在重組中做到了這一點，Blue 將出現在 Model e 上.因此，在一個良好的市場中，很容易看出核心燃燒業務的增量利潤如何為您的電動汽車增長提供資金。但是現在我們有更多的成本進入系統，也許您可以讓我們了解您如何看待您的增長投資。

EV, I assume you're going to invest in that regardless of what the underlying market environment is, but maybe you can give us a sense of are there other growth investments that are maybe more discretionary that you can -- if you need to pull back on it or delay. How do you think about other growth investments?

EV，我認為無論潛在市場環境如何，您都會投資於該領域，但也許您可以讓我們了解是否有其他增長投資可能更具自由裁量權——如果您需要拉動回到它或延遲。您如何看待其他增長投資？

Our opportunity is really around our cost in our Blue business. That's how we look at it. In terms of investing, we need to invest in a fully networked advanced electric architecture. We need to advance. We need to invest in Level 2 and Level 3 autonomy. We need to invest in a new portfolio and changing our industrial system over to these electric digital products. We need to invest in our OS software that supports all of that. And we need -- we believe very strongly we need to invest in Level 4 autonomy.

我們的機會實際上是圍繞我們在 Blue 業務中的成本。這就是我們看待它的方式。在投資方面，我們需要投資一個全聯網的先進電氣架構。我們需要前進。我們需要投資 2 級和 3 級自治。我們需要投資新的產品組合，並將我們的工業系統轉變為這些電子數字產品。我們需要投資支持所有這些的操作系統軟件。我們需要 - 我們非常堅信我們需要投資於 4 級自治。

So at this point in time, I don't personally see any discretionary -- our Ford+ plan is so specific about where to invest. That at this point in time, our real work that we need to do is to get after these inefficiencies and improve the productivity of our base business. That's really where we're focused. And of course, it's implied that as a management team, we need to make these investments as efficiently as we can for all this new technology and growth. I hope that makes sense to you.

所以在這個時間點上，我個人認為沒有任何自由裁量權——我們的福特+計劃對投資地點非常具體。在這個時間點上，我們需要做的真正工作是解決這些低效率問題並提高我們基礎業務的生產力。這才是我們真正關注的地方。當然，這意味著作為一個管理團隊，我們需要盡可能高效地進行這些投資，以實現所有這些新技術和增長。我希望這對你有意義。

The next question comes from Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的馬克德萊尼。

The first is on the new structure. It's been about 2 months now since Ford announced the split into the different segments, including Ford Blue and Model e. I'm hoping to better understand how employee reception has been. And for Doug Field, perhaps specifically, maybe you can talk about what is meant for your ability to get the right engineering talent. And are there any anecdotes or data points you can share?

首先是關於新結構。自福特宣布拆分為不同的細分市場以來已經過去了大約 2 個月，包括 Ford Blue 和 Model e。我希望能更好地了解員工接待情況。對於 Doug Field，也許具體來說，也許你可以談談你獲得合適的工程人才的能力意味著什麼。您可以分享任何軼事或數據點嗎？

I think reception has been terrific. We worked hard on this, and we were prepared. We know -- we knew kind of what we needed to communicate to the employees and why this is necessary and why it makes sense. So I think the reception has been good.

我認為接待非常好。我們為此努力，並做好了準備。我們知道——我們知道我們需要與員工交流什麼，為什麼這是必要的，為什麼它是有意義的。所以我認為接待一直很好。

The proof in the pudding is going to be how this executes. And we're -- that's why I wanted to give an update actually in my comments on what we've done since March 2, and a lot has changed. Doug, over to you.

布丁中的證據將是它的執行方式。而且我們 - 這就是為什麼我想在我的評論中對我們自 3 月 2 日以來所做的工作進行更新，並且發生了很多變化。道格，交給你了。

Thanks. Yes. We did think a lot about this, and I had a great partner in Hau to figure out how we were going to take best advantage of Ford's deep capabilities that I have not access to in any of my prior roles. So the organization is set up where Ford Model e can't and doesn't build cars by themselves. We rely on an industrial platform that does great work.

謝謝。是的。我們確實對此進行了很多思考，我在 Hau 有一個很棒的合作夥伴，他想知道我們將如何充分利用福特的深厚能力，而我在以前的任何職位上都無法獲得這些能力。因此，該組織成立於福特 Model e 不能也不會自行製造汽車的地方。我們依靠一個出色的工業平台。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

and Ford Model e contributes software (inaudible) systems back (inaudible). So there's an interdependency that really helps the team work, I think.

福特 Model e 回饋軟件（聽不清）系統（聽不清）。因此，我認為存在真正有助於團隊工作的相互依賴關係。

As far as attracting talent, I've been really delighted and surprised by the kind of talent that we can attract from tech. I think there's a certain amount of fatigue in the tech world and a lot of mature products out there. The opportunity to work on high technology, but do it in a brand that is so iconic in the United States and something that is so -- such a rich product like a vehicle is really attracting some great people.

就吸引人才而言，我對我們可以從科技中吸引到的那種人才感到非常高興和驚訝。我認為科技界和許多成熟的產品都存在一定程度的疲勞。從事高科技工作的機會，但要在一個在美國如此具有標誌性的品牌中做這件事——像汽車這樣豐富的產品確實吸引了一些偉大的人。

Finally, I think from a talent perspective, Ford Model e is also helping us really dig into the internal team and find great people who can step up, take on different kinds of roles, be put in positions of authority and really help drive us forward. There are great people here.

最後，我認為從人才的角度來看，福特 Model e 也在幫助我們真正挖掘內部團隊，找到能夠挺身而出、擔任不同角色、擔任權威職位並真正幫助推動我們前進的優秀人才.這裡有很棒的人。

That's really helpful. My second question was on the volume outlook for 10% to 15% wholesale growth, which the company has maintained, even though we've had, unfortunately, the war and also the new COVID restrictions pop up in China. So I'm hoping to better understand how Ford is still managing to that 10% to 15% growth. And to what extent is the company taking incremental actions to find different suppliers that perhaps you hadn't been expecting to have to do? And is it more that you're doing those sorts of things to still do 10% to 15% growth? Or is it perhaps more about Ford's suppliers not being overly impacted by these recent events?

這真的很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於 10% 到 15% 批發增長的銷量前景，儘管不幸的是，我們已經經歷了戰爭，而且中國出現了新的 COVID 限制，但該公司一直保持這一水平。所以我希望能更好地了解福特是如何實現 10% 到 15% 的增長的。公司在多大程度上採取增量行動來尋找您可能沒有預料到的不同供應商？是否更多的是你正在做這些事情來保持 10% 到 15% 的增長？或者更多的是福特的供應商沒有受到這些近期事件的過度影響？

Thank you. It really comes down to the commodities -- semiconductor-related commodities that have been hamstringing us. We obviously are spending a lot of money on premium freight and other things to work around COVID escalations in China. But really, the second half of the year's production increase relates to those. So Hau, I don't know if you want to add anything specifically.

謝謝你。這真的歸結為大宗商品——一直困擾著我們的與半導體相關的大宗商品。顯然，我們在優質貨運和其他方面花費了大量資金來應對中國的 COVID 升級。但實際上，下半年的增產與這些有關。所以Hau，我不知道您是否要特別添加任何內容。

Yes. Mark, so the 2 hotspots that you highlighted, Ukraine, Russia, I think we've done a really good job of managing that and minimizing any large significant production risk, mostly because of our global sourcing patterns, and we were able to get parts from other areas of the world.

是的。馬克，所以你強調的兩個熱點，烏克蘭，俄羅斯，我認為我們在管理和最大限度地減少任何重大生產風險方面做得非常好，主要是因為我們的全球採購模式，我們能夠獲得零件來自世界其他地區。

In terms of China, we're scaling the Shanghai area. We have about 50 Tier 1 suppliers there. Our focus is on our profit pillar vehicles. And as Jim mentioned, really leveraging expedited freight. We've secured fast maritime shipment as well as airlift capacity to protect our suppliers. And then they're just starting to have a white list process to allow suppliers to resume production. So we're working with our teams on the ground in China to help those suppliers get partially operational. So those actions, we think, will really help us. And as Jim mentioned, what's going to be gating us is semiconductors. A lot of these constraints are nested within that. So it comes down to the work that we're doing on the semiconductor supply.

就中國而言，我們正在擴大上海地區。我們在那裡有大約 50 家一級供應商。我們的重點是我們的利潤支柱工具。正如吉姆所說，真正利用加急貨運。我們確保了快速海運和空運能力，以保護我們的供應商。然後他們才剛剛開始製定白名單流程，以允許供應商恢復生產。因此，我們正在與我們在中國的當地團隊合作，幫助這些供應商部分運營。因此，我們認為，這些行動將真正幫助我們。正如吉姆所提到的，將要控制我們的是半導體。許多這些約束都嵌套在其中。所以歸結為我們在半導體供應方面所做的工作。

The next question comes from Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

As we near the, I think, 180-day lockup expiry on your investment in Rivian, how are you thinking about the options available to you in terms of this investment going forward?

我認為，當我們接近您對 Rivian 的投資的 180 天鎖定期時，您如何看待未來這項投資的可用選擇？

Are you maybe more inclined to retain some or all of the stake given the recent decline in Rivian shares? And if you were to monetize it, how are you thinking about the use of any potential proceeds? Could you maybe use them to accelerate your own electrification efforts? Or are you maybe already devoting all the resources necessary there, and so would perhaps look to prioritize other opportunities? I don't know, maybe shareholder-friendly actions. How are you thinking about these options?

鑑於最近 Rivian 股價下跌，您是否更傾向於保留部分或全部股份？如果你要將它貨幣化，你如何考慮使用任何潛在收益？您能否使用它們來加速您自己的電氣化工作？還是您可能已經投入了所有必要的資源，因此可能會考慮優先考慮其他機會？我不知道，也許是對股東友好的行動。您如何看待這些選項？

Yes. Unfortunately, at this point, we're not going to comment on Rivian.

是的。不幸的是，在這一點上，我們不會對 Rivian 發表評論。

Okay. Great. Let me try one on Argo then. I recall you saying on an earlier call that your supportive of Argo AI's potential tapping of public equity. Is there any update you can provide there in terms of where Argo may be with that process? Or just what is the latest your thinking about in terms of their overall strategy and trajectory, what has been maybe the early results of some of your trials of robo taxis on the Lyft network or in various cities beyond Miami?

好的。偉大的。那讓我在 Argo 上試一試。我記得你在早些時候的電話會議上說過，你支持 Argo AI 潛在地利用公共股權。關於 Argo 在該過程中的位置，您是否可以提供任何更新？或者您對他們的整體戰略和軌蹟的最新想法是什麼，您在 Lyft 網絡或邁阿密以外的各個城市進行的一些機器人出租車試驗的早期結果可能是什麼？

Well, first of all, Argo and, Ryan, continue to make great progress technically on the SDS for Level 4 autonomy. We're very happy with the technical progress. Number two, we really see maybe different than others Level 2, Level 3 and Level 4 as 2 distinct products. Yes, Argo could help us with our semi-autonomous capability, but we feel like that would be a big distraction for them, which we do not want them distracted at all.

好吧，首先，Argo 和 Ryan 在 SDS 上繼續在技術上取得巨大進步，以實現 4 級自治。我們對技術進步感到非常滿意。第二，我們確實認為 2 級、3 級和 4 級可能不同於其他產品，因為它們是 2 個不同的產品。是的，Argo 可以幫助我們實現半自主能力，但我們覺得這對他們來說是一個很大的分心，我們根本不希望他們分心。

And number three, it's taking time. And this is expensive stuff. And so from our standpoint, getting access to the capital markets is very critical to give us the flexibility to continue to fund this for many years to come.

第三，這需要時間。這是昂貴的東西。因此，從我們的角度來看，進入資本市場對於讓我們能夠靈活地在未來許多年繼續為此提供資金非常重要。

One thing I would say is we're very focused on partners that would be aligned strategically with Argo, use cases that would be very material in the deployment of Argo's technology. And we're getting more and more interested as a company, maybe a bit of a strategic shift on goods movement. It's aligned with our commercial vehicle business, and our customers feel they're getting more and more interested in middle mile specifically. I think that's a material update for Argo, and hopefully that helps you.

我要說的一件事是，我們非常關注與 Argo 在戰略上保持一致的合作夥伴，這些用例在部署 Argo 技術時非常重要。作為一家公司，我們越來越感興趣，也許是對商品流動的戰略轉變。它與我們的商用車業務保持一致，我們的客戶覺得他們對中間英里越來越感興趣。我認為這是 Argo 的重大更新，希望對您有所幫助。

The next question comes from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

A couple of questions on cash. I noticed CapEx is now $7 billion, was -- I think it was $7 billion to $8 billion. Free cash flow the same. EBIT still the same. So is the delta to maintain the free cash flow working capital? And then while we're on cash, it looks like redesign cash is now $1 billion lower this year versus prior. And I think given the total amount you expect to spend on that is lower now. So can you just talk about what's going on there?

關於現金的幾個問題。我注意到資本支出現在是 70 億美元，我認為是 70 億到 80 億美元。自由現金流相同。息稅前利潤仍然相同。那麼三角洲是維持自由現金流的營運資金嗎？然後，雖然我們有現金，但今年重新設計的現金似乎比以前少了 10 億美元。而且我認為考慮到您現在期望花費的總金額較低。所以你能談談那裡發生了什麼嗎？

Sure. On the redesign, there's efficiencies that we're seeing as we work through the redesign across each of the markets that we've restructured. And so you're starting to see that show up. There's also some timing differences in there as well where the work we're doing is, let's say, taking a bit longer to get to a solution or a final position with some of the counterparties we're working with. And we also announced the fact that we will be selling our Craiova facility to Otosan, and that's going to allow to bring cash into that restructuring that we have there as well for global redesign. So that's the short of it from that standpoint.

當然。在重新設計方面，當我們在我們重組的每個市場中進行重新設計時，我們看到了效率。所以你開始看到它出現了。還有一些時間上的差異，以及我們正在做的工作，比方說，與我們正在合作的一些交易對手達成解決方案或最終立場需要更長的時間。我們還宣布了我們將把我們的克拉約瓦工廠出售給 Otosan 的事實，這將允許為我們在那裡的重組以及全球重新設計帶來現金。所以從這個角度來看，這就是它的不足之處。

The other point -- I think the question was around -- remind me what it was.

另一點 - 我認為問題是圍繞 - 提醒我它是什麼。

The lower CapEx versus prior.

與之前相比，較低的資本支出。

Yes. Right. So the lower CapEx...

是的。對。所以較低的資本支出...

Lower CapEx versus prior CapEx.

與之前的資本支出相比，較低的資本支出。

Yes. So the lower CapEx, that reflects no change in our intended investment in electrification or our fully networked architecture, et cetera. It's just timing differences in this year relative to what we saw at the beginning of the year. So you can still expect us to continually invest. We have the capital to do that. The balance sheet's strong. So it doesn't reflect anything on where we see the business heading. It's just timing differences for the most part.

是的。因此，較低的資本支出反映了我們在電氣化或我們完全網絡化的架構等方面的預期投資沒有變化。相對於我們在年初看到的情況，這只是今年的時間差異。所以你仍然可以期待我們繼續投資。我們有資本這樣做。資產負債表強勁。因此，它並沒有反映我們看到的業務方向。在大多數情況下，這只是時間差異。

Got it. And then just to follow-up, the free cash flow remains the same is a little bit more of a working capital drag then?

知道了。然後只是跟進，自由現金流保持不變是不是有點拖累營運資金呢？

Yes. It's more of working capital. Yes. Absolutely.

是的。更多的是營運資金。是的。絕對地。

Okay. And then I think you sort of made it quite clear that the primary driver here of covering some of the higher cost is more advantageous pricing. Can you just parse some of the Ford Credit commentary a little bit? Because I think before, you said it was going to be about $1.5 billion lower. And now there's some language that it's strong but lower. So is some of that also coming from some of that makeup, if you will, also coming from Ford Credit?

好的。然後我認為你已經很清楚地表明，這裡覆蓋一些較高成本的主要驅動因素是更有利的定價。你能稍微分析一下福特信貸的評論嗎？因為我之前認為，你說它會減少大約 15 億美元。現在有一些語言強但低級。那麼，如果你願意的話，其中一些是否也來自一些化妝，也來自福特信貸？

Yes. Joe, it's Marion. Let me -- I'll just cover the guidance piece on Ford Credit. We said that the profits will be strong but lower. And that's reflected in the fact that we had larger reserve releases in 2021 than we would expect in 2022. In addition to that, we had a lot more supplemental depreciation releases in 2021 than we would in 2022 related to the lease portfolio.

是的。喬，是馬里恩。讓我 - 我將只介紹福特信貸的指導。我們說利潤會強勁但會下降。這反映在我們在 2021 年釋放的儲備金比我們在 2022 年預期的要多。除此之外，我們在 2021 年釋放的補充折舊比 2022 年與租賃組合相關的要多得多。

Did your expectations changed versus what you communicated 3 months ago there or this year?

與 3 個月前或今年所傳達的內容相比，您的期望是否發生了變化？

No. No.

不，不。

The next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

So John, last quarter, you provided a very helpful walk towards the 2022 adjusted EBIT with some of the largest puts and takes. And so I was hoping you can maybe update some of the buckets here. So obviously, commodities was expected to be $1.5 billion to $2 billion drag. Now it's $4 billion. What is now the market factors versus the $6 billion from last time? Ford Credit was going to be $1.5 billion balance drag. I seem to understand from the last question that this hasn't changed. Any other changes besides market factors? And can you just quantify that?

因此，約翰，上個季度，您為 2022 年調整後的息稅前利潤提供了非常有用的路徑，其中包含一些最大的看跌期權。所以我希望你可以在這裡更新一些桶。所以很明顯，大宗商品預計將拖累15億至20億美元。現在是40億美元。與上次的 60 億美元相比，現在的市場因素是什麼？福特信貸將拖累 15 億美元的餘額。我似乎從最後一個問題中了解到這並沒有改變。除了市場因素還有其他變化嗎？你能量化一下嗎？

Yes. So I think what you see there is exactly that. There's no change to Ford Credit. We are seeing higher inflationary pressures. We are seeing higher top line pricing that's coming through, but we're also working on cost offsets as well. So I think it largely remains what we had talked about last time. We're just seeing higher inflationary pressures and higher pricing flow through.

是的。所以我認為你所看到的正是如此。福特信貸沒有變化。我們看到更高的通脹壓力。我們正在看到更高的頂線定價，但我們也在努力抵消成本。所以我認為這在很大程度上仍然是我們上次討論的內容。我們只是看到更高的通脹壓力和更高的定價流動。

Okay. So versus the $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion in the volume mix price benefit from last time, we could basically add $2 billion to $2.5 billion to that, which is the pricing offset -- the cost offset?

好的。因此，與上次 55 億至 65 億美元的數量組合價格收益相比，我們基本上可以在此基礎上增加 20 億至 25 億美元，這是定價抵消——成本抵消？

No. I don't think that it's as high as $2.5 billion, Emmanuel. It's -- there's growth in there, but it's not as high as that. I think that when you look at the walk relative to what we had provided last time, most of the inflationary pressures that we're seeing are being offset by a combination of additional cost reductions, pricing and mix that's flowing through, but it's not as large as that as what you had just indicated.

不，我不認為它高達 25 億美元，Emmanuel。它是——那裡有增長，但沒有那麼高。我認為，當您查看相對於我們上次提供的情況時，我們看到的大部分通脹壓力都被額外的成本降低、定價和正在流動的組合所抵消，但情況並非如此和你剛才指出的一樣大。

Okay. On the cost piece of it, the -- are you dialing back or sort of like prioritizing some of the modernization investments? Or is that largely left as is for this year?

好的。在成本方面，您是在回撥還是在優先考慮一些現代化投資？還是今年大部分時間都保持原樣？

No. I mean our -- absolutely not. I'll try to make that -- I'll say it twice. We are really excited about our growth opportunity in EVs. We have electric architectures to invest in, software OS. We have partial autonomy to invest in, full autonomy to invest in. That's all part of our Ford+ plan. It's essential to our move to always on. We obviously have lots of investments in building out our service portfolio for Ford Pro. We're not holding back on any of that.

不，我的意思是我們的——絕對不是。我會盡力做到這一點——我會說兩次。我們對電動汽車的增長機會感到非常興奮。我們有電子架構可以投資，軟件操作系統。我們有部分自主權投資，完全自主權投資。這都是我們福特+計劃的一部分。這對我們永遠在線至關重要。顯然，我們在為福特 Pro 建立服務組合方面進行了大量投資。我們不會阻止任何這些。

The cost drivers that we see are things like, obviously, manufacturing as we simplify our ICE lineup. And as Doug said, really completely redesign our manufacturing process for EV. We have opportunities in sales and marketing and sales, opportunity in engineering as we simplify our lineup and, of course, warranty and other areas. So I think we're -- we know exactly what we need to do.

我們看到的成本驅動因素顯然是製造，因為我們簡化了我們的 ICE 產品線。正如道格所說，真正徹底地重新設計了我們的電動汽車製造流程。我們在銷售、營銷和銷售方面有機會，在工程方面有機會，因為我們簡化了我們的陣容，當然還有保修和其他領域。所以我認為我們——我們確切地知道我們需要做什麼。

Our last question comes from Itay Michaeli of Citi.

我們的最後一個問題來自花旗的 Itay Michaeli。

Just 2 quick ones for me. First, you did talk about the cadence of earnings before, but just hoping we can revisit it in terms of kind of how to think about the adjusted EBIT for the rest of the year and whether there is any bias at this point towards the low end or high end of your full year guidance range. And second, more housekeeping question is whether you can provide what you anticipate the Ford Motor Credit dividends to be back up to the parent.

對我來說只有 2 個快速的。首先，您之前確實談到了收益的節奏，但只是希望我們可以重新審視一下如何考慮今年餘下時間的調整後息稅前利潤，以及此時是否有任何偏向低端的偏見或全年指導範圍的高端。其次，更多的管家問題是您是否可以提供您預期的福特汽車信貸紅利以支持母公司。

Yes. I mean we're not going to parse out the guidance. It's $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion. It's a dynamic environment. We're working to offset all the headwinds and maintain the guidance. But as far as parsing out where we sit within the guidance of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion.

是的。我的意思是我們不會解析出指南。這是115億美元到125億美元。這是一個動態的環境。我們正在努力抵消所有不利因素並保持指導。但就分析我們在 115 億美元至 125 億美元的指導範圍內所處的位置而言。

And then on the dividends, the dividends are a function of overall profits and balance sheet size and leverage. And in this case, you heard the guidance on profits and into the balance sheet. We don't expect much growth this year just given where we are in the vehicle constraints. So the majority of profits -- we don't have a specific number.

然後是股息，股息是整體利潤、資產負債表規模和槓桿率的函數。在這種情況下，你聽到了關於利潤和資產負債表的指導。考慮到我們在車輛限制方面的情況，我們預計今年不會有太大的增長。所以大部分利潤——我們沒有具體的數字。

And I'll just make it really clear on the overall company's automotive performance, financial performance. The second half is very critical for us. It's just a very critical time for the company. We have the opportunity to build in volumes we haven't for a while. And we have a lot of great fresh products, a lot of costs coming in the business, but second half is really critical for the company.

我只想明確說明整個公司的汽車業績和財務業績。下半場對我們來說非常關鍵。對公司來說，這是一個非常關鍵的時刻。我們有機會建立我們有一段時間沒有的數量。而且我們有很多很棒的新鮮產品，業務中有很多成本，但下半年對公司來說真的很關鍵。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

福特汽車公司 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。