福特汽車 (F) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen.

美好的一天，女士們先生們。

My name is Holly, and I'll be your conference operator today.

我叫霍莉，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

現在，我歡迎您參加福特汽車公司 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資人關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。

Lynn, I hand it to you.

琳，我把它交給你了。

Thank you, Holly.

謝謝你，霍莉。

Welcome to Ford Motor Company's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加福特汽車公司 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。

With me today are Jim Farley, our President and CEO; and John Lawler, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長吉姆法利 (Jim Farley)；以及我們的財務長約翰·勞勒 (John Lawler)。

Also joining us for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit.

福特信貸執行長 Marion Harris 也加入了我們的問答環節。

Today's discussions include some non-GAAP references.

今天的討論包括一些非 GAAP 參考資料。

These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck.

這些數據與我們收益表附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計準則衡量標準進行了調整。

You can find the deck along with the rest of our earnings materials as well as content from our Capital Markets Day at shareholder.ford.com.

您可以在股東.ford.com 上找到該簡報以及我們的其他收益資料以及資本市場日的內容。

Today's discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations.

今天的討論還包括有關我們期望的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ from those stated.

實際結果可能與所述結果不同。

The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 21.

第 21 頁列出了可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素。

Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year.

除非另有說明，所有比較均為逐年比較。

Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis, and product mix is volume-weighted.

公司息稅前利潤、每股盈餘和自由現金流是經過調整的，產品組合是數量加權的。

A quick update on our upcoming IR events.

關於我們即將舉行的 IR 活動的快速更新。

On Monday, August 2, Barclays will host a fireside chat with John Lawler and Lisa Drake, our Chief Operating Officer for North America.

8 月 2 日星期一，巴克萊銀行將與我們的北美首席營運長約翰·勞勒 (John Lawler) 和麗莎·德雷克 (Lisa Drake) 進行爐邊談話。

On Tuesday, August 3, Jefferies will host a virtual fireside chat with Alex Purdy, our Director for Business Operations for Enterprise Connectivity.

8 月 3 日星期二，Jefferies 將與我們的企業連接業務營運總監 Alex Purdy 進行虛擬爐邊聊天。

And on August 11, JPMorgan will host a virtual fireside chat with Hau Thai-Tang, our Chief Product Platform and Operations Officer.

8 月 11 日，摩根大通將與我們的首席產品平台和營運長 Hau Thai-Tang 進行虛擬爐邊對話。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim Farley.

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆·法利。

Thank you, Lynn.

謝謝你，林恩。

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

大家好，感謝您今天加入我們。

Early in the second quarter 2 months ago, we detailed our strategy for the future of Ford.

兩個月前的第二季初，我們詳細介紹了福特未來的策略。

Put simply, our Ford+ plan is focused on 2 things: really distinctive products that only Ford could do; and an always-on relationship and experience for our customers that gets better and better over time.

簡而言之，我們的 Ford+ 計劃專注於兩件事：只有福特才能生產真正獨特的產品；為我們的客戶提供始終在線的關係和體驗，並且隨著時間的推移變得越來越好。

We're building on our foundational strengths, our iconic products, the uniquely appealing vehicles, our manufacturing excellence and the industry's best captive finance company, but we're now adding new capabilities and new talents and we're investing in new businesses that will accelerate our value we create for customers and our investors.

我們正在建立我們的基礎優勢、我們的標誌性產品、獨特的有吸引力的車輛、我們的卓越製造和業界最好的自保金融公司，但我們現在正在增加新的能力和新的人才，我們正在投資新的業務，這些業務將加速為客戶和投資者創造價值。

We're committed to delivering a richer experience for our Ford and Lincoln customers, one that improves over time with things like our over-the-air software upgrades, data-driven experiences, productivity and uptime services for our critical commercial customers, charging software and a lot more.

我們致力於為福特和林肯客戶提供更豐富的體驗，這種體驗會隨著時間的推移而不斷改善，例如我們的無線軟體升級、數據驅動的體驗、為關鍵商業客戶提供的生產力和正常運行時間服務、收費軟體還有更多。

Ford+ also means introducing the industry's most compelling high-volume electric vehicle lineup and investing the capital and human resources required to design and build world-class batteries and electric powertrain components.

福特+也意味著推出業界最引人注目的大批量電動車產品線，並投資設計和製造世界一流的電池和電動動力總成組件所需的資本和人力資源。

And with Argo AI, we're well positioned to launch an autonomous people and goods delivery business with significant future growth potential.

透過 Argo AI，我們已準備好推出具有巨大未來成長潛力的自主人員和貨物配送業務。

But fundamental to transforming Ford is to further strengthen our auto operations while we're also expanding our addressable market.

但福特轉型的根本在於進一步強化我們的汽車業務，同時擴大我們的目標市場。

Our commitment is to earn your confidence with strong execution quarter after quarter, year after year, delivering solid returns regardless of the challenges that we face with external environment, like we did in the second quarter.

我們的承諾是透過季復一季、年復一年的強勁執行力贏得您的信心，無論我們面臨外部環境的挑戰如何，都能提供堅實的回報，就像我們在第二季度所做的那樣。

Despite the many headwinds from the semiconductor shortage, some of which were unique to Ford, our team skillfully managed our business and we generated a positive EBIT.

儘管半導體短缺帶來了許多阻力（其中一些是福特特有的），但我們的團隊巧妙地管理了我們的業務，並產生了積極的息稅前利潤。

And I can tell you that this outcome was far from certain at the beginning of the quarter.

我可以告訴你，這一結果在本季初還遠未確定。

It required intense focus from our team on cost, pricing and mix.

這需要我們的團隊高度關注成本、定價和組合。

The primary advantage we have right now is the strength of our product portfolio, and it's about to get a lot stronger.

我們現在擁有的主要優勢是我們產品組合的實力，而且它將變得更加強大。

We stopped making me-too products in declining segments a few years ago, and we unleashed our product development team to create emotional and distinctive products that only can come from Ford.

幾年前，我們停止在衰退的細分市場中生產模仿產品，並釋放我們的產品開發團隊來創造只有福特才能生產的富有情感和獨特的產品。

The Mustang Mach-E, which is already the second best-selling electric SUV in the United States, was recently named Car and Driver Electric Vehicle of the Year after rigorous testing against 10 other great EVs, including the Tesla Model Y Performance, the Porsche Taycan and the Audi e-tron.

Mustang Mach-E 已經成為美國第二暢銷的電動 SUV，在與特斯拉 Model Y Performance、保時捷等其他 10 款出色的電動車進行嚴格測試後，最近被評為年度汽車和駕駛員電動車Taycan 和奧迪e-tron。

The demand for our first round of high-volume EVs clearly has exceeded our most optimistic projections.

對我們第一輪大批量電動車的需求顯然超出了我們最樂觀的預測。

The reservations for the F-150 Lightning have now climbed well past 120,000 units, and 75% of those customers are new to Ford.

F-150 Lightning 的預訂量現已遠遠超過 12 萬輛，其中 75% 是福特的新客戶。

We are now working around the clock to break constraints and increase our manufacturing capacity for these red-hot, new battery electric vehicles.

我們現在正在日以繼夜地工作，以打破限制並提高這些炙手可熱的新型電池電動車的製造能力。

We're working with LG Chem, SKI Innovation (sic) [SK Innovation] to increase our annual battery capacity for the Mustang Mach-E by 70%, and we're taking similar actions ahead of the launches of the E-Transit later this year and the F-150 Lightning early next year.

我們正在與 LG Chem、SKI Innovation（原文如此）[SK Innovation] 合作，將 Mustang Mach-E 的年電池容量提高 70%，並且我們將在稍後推出 E-Transit 之前採取類似的行動今年將推出F -150 Lightning，明年初推出F-150 Lightning。

The customer and critical reception to our new Bronco lineup has also been remarkable.

客戶對我們新 Bronco 系列的好評也非常出色。

In June, we started shipments to fulfill 125,000 orders we have for Bronco 2- and 4-door models, and 70% of those Bronco customers are also new to Ford.

6 月份，我們開始出貨，以滿足 Bronco 2 門和 4 門車型的 125,000 份訂單，其中 70% 的 Bronco 客戶也是福特的新客戶。

And then there's the Maverick, our upcoming hybrid pickup that offers room for 5, gets 40 miles per gallon in the city and is priced starting at less than $20,000.

然後是 Maverick，我們即將推出的混合動力皮卡，可容納 5 人，在城市中每加侖可行駛 40 英里，起價不到 20,000 美元。

And customers already recognize the value of this product, and the initial interest to our dealers is more than almost 80,000 orders.

客戶已經認識到該產品的價值，我們的經銷商最初的興趣超過了近 80,000 個訂單。

Great products alone are not sufficient though to deliver Ford+.

僅僅出色的產品還不足以交付福特+。

Always-on means we are regularly interacting with our customers on things large and small, and we're building new capabilities like connected services to enrich the customer experience and drive reoccurring revenue streams.

始終在線意味著我們定期與客戶就大大小小的事情進行互動，並且我們正在建立互聯服務等新功能，以豐富客戶體驗並推動經常性收入流。

We developed a proprietary software and hardware stack we call Blue Oval Intelligence to deliver updates to customers' vehicles over the air.

我們開發了一個稱為 Blue Oval Intelligence 的專有軟體和硬體堆疊，透過無線方式向客戶的車輛提供更新。

Some of our competitors can do it for their entertainment systems.

我們的一些競爭對手可以為他們的娛樂系統做到這一點。

We do it for almost all of our modules in the vehicle.

我們對車輛中的幾乎所有模組都這樣做。

For example, the Mustang Mach-E activation rates, the number of customers who opt in to connected services like FordPass, are now over 95%.

例如，Mustang Mach-E 的啟動率（選擇使用 FordPass 等連網服務的客戶數量）現已超過 95%。

We have now updated more than 150,000 vehicles over the year just this year, and we expect this -- to top 600,000 vehicles by year-end.

光是今年，我們就更新了超過 15 萬輛汽車，我們預計到年底這一數字將達到 60 萬輛。

And by 2028, we will have 33 million OTA capability vehicles on the road around the world.

到 2028 年，全球將有 3,300 萬輛具備 OTA 功能的車輛上路。

And we're mining the real-world data from these vehicles real time to better meet our customer needs.

我們正在即時挖掘這些車輛的真實數據，以更好地滿足客戶需求。

To me, this is the most important point.

對我來說，這是最重要的一點。

For example, driven by the vehicle data from the Mustang Mach-E and the F-150 already, we've identified $50 million in efficiencies just from warranty cost avoidance and other opportunities.

例如，根據 Mustang Mach-E 和 F-150 的車輛數據，我們已經透過避免保固成本和其他機會確定了 5,000 萬美元的效率提升。

We're also building out our global Ford Pro commercial business, which we expect to grow from $45 billion in 2025 from $27 billion in 2019.

我們也正在建立全球福特 Pro 商業業務，預計將從 2019 年的 270 億美元成長到 2025 年的 450 億美元。

Last month, we announced our acquisition of Electriphi to help accelerate electric vehicle fleet adoption by offering those customers the best scaled depot charging experience for all commercial customers.

上個月，我們宣布收購 Electriphi，透過為所有商業客戶提供最佳規模的充電站充電體驗，協助加速電動車隊的採用。

It's an example of how we're building out Ford Pro now.

這是我們現在如何打造福特 Pro 的一個例子。

In Mobility, we are now focused on planning and executing a phased deployment of AVs that will lead to large-scale commercialization of Ford's AVs.

在行動領域，我們現在專注於規劃和執行自動駕駛汽車的分階段部署，這將導致福特自動駕駛汽車的大規模商業化。

Last week, as you've seen, we reached the industry-first collaboration between Argo and Lyft to deploy Ford driverless vehicles on the Lyft TNC network.

上週，如您所見，我們在 Argo 和 Lyft 之間達成了業界首次合作，在 Lyft TNC 網路上部署福特無人駕駛汽車。

This collaboration will enable commercial deployment at scale and demonstrate Ford and Argo's ability to connect into multiple TNCs, or transportation networks.

此次合作將實現大規模商業部署，並展示福特和 Argo 連接到多個跨國公司或運輸網路的能力。

And on the technology front, Argo -- I'm really excited about this, introduced Argo Lidar, which will help us expand our autonomous services beyond the dense urban areas that most are focused on.

在技​​術方面，Argo——我對此感到非常興奮，推出了 Argo 雷射雷達，這將幫助我們將自主服務擴展到大多數人關注的密集城市地區之外。

This new lidar, designed to be cost-effective and manufacturing at scale, will offer what we believe is the industry's longest distance-sensing range of 400 meters with dark object detection or safe highway driving.

這款新型光達的設計具有成本效益並可大規模生產，我們認為該光達將提供業界最長的 400 公尺距離感應範圍，並具有暗物體偵測或安全高速公路駕駛功能。

Now before John reports on the quarter and our expectations for the rest of the year, let me give you an update on the semiconductor situation.

現在，在約翰報告本季和我們對今年剩餘時間的預期之前，讓我向您介紹半導體情勢的最新情況。

In April, we said we'd expect to lose about 50% of our planned volume in the second quarter, which then implied a loss in adjusted EBIT.

4 月份，我們表示預計第二季的銷售量將減少約 50%，這意味著調整後的息稅前利潤將出現損失。

In fact, we did better than expected.

事實上，我們做得比預期的還要好。

We leveraged the strong demand to optimize our revenue and profits.

我們利用強勁的需求來優化我們的收入和利潤。

We're seeing signs of improvement in the flow of chips now in the third quarter, but the situation remains fluid especially due to the delay in ramp-up of one of our key suppliers, Renesas, that Ford is uniquely exposed to in the first half.

我們在第三季看到晶片流量有所改善的跡象，但情況仍然不穩定，特別是由於我們的主要供應商之一瑞薩電子的產能延遲，福特在第一季就面臨獨特的風險。一半。

Overall, after effectively managing through the first half, we are now spring-loaded for growth in the second half and beyond because of those red-hot products, pent-up demand and improving chip supply.

總體而言，在有效管理了上半年之後，由於這些炙手可熱的產品、被壓抑的需求以及晶片供應的改善，我們現在已經為下半年及以後的成長做好了準備。

Navigating these chip constraints has led us to make important permanent changes in our business model at Ford.

克服這些晶片限制使我們對福特的業務模式做出了重要的永久性改變。

We are modernizing our go-to-market strategy.

我們正在現代化我們的市場策略。

What does that mean?

這意味著什麼？

We're placing a greater emphasis on build-to-order sales bank, not just low stocks.

我們更加重視按訂單生產的銷售銀行，而不僅僅是低庫存。

We have learned that, yes, operating with fewer vehicles on lots is not only possible but it's better for customers, dealers and Ford.

我們了解到，是的，在停車場使用更少的車輛不僅是可能的，而且對客戶、經銷商和福特來說都更好。

But we're also driving a significant increase in the number of customers configuring and ordering their vehicles online so we have better visibility to real demand using an order bank.

但我們也推動線上配置和訂購車輛的客戶數量顯著增加，因此我們可以使用訂單庫來更好地了解實際需求。

This allows us to lower inventories, simplify our incentives and reduce our order complexity and the industrial systems cost.

這使我們能夠降低庫存、簡化激勵措施並降低訂單複雜性和工業系統成本。

For our customers, upside is that they more quickly get the precise vehicle they want.

對於我們的客戶來說，好處是他們可以更快地獲得他們想要的精確車輛。

Now this isn't theoretical.

現在這不是理論上的。

I hope we get into the Q&A.

我希望我們能進入問答環節。

We're doing it right now as we speak.

正如我們所說，我們現在正在做這件事。

Relative to the supply chain, we made 3 notable changes.

相對於供應鏈，我們做了3個顯著的改變。

First, we are no longer relying on -- heavily on a tiered procurement structure for transparency.

首先，我們不再嚴重依賴分層採購結構來提高透明度。

We are now engaging directly, for example, with the fabs on semiconductors and key points in the supply chain for our critical components, electronic components.

例如，我們現在正在直接與半導體工廠以及我們關鍵零件、電子零件供應鏈中的關鍵點接觸。

With closer relationships and more transparent exchange of information such as technology road maps, we can integrate their know-how into our designs to better align supply and demand.

透過更密切的關係和更透明的資訊交換（例如技術路線圖），我們可以將他們的專業知識融入我們的設計中，以更好地協調供需。

Second, we are providing longer-term forecast to critical vendors so they can better understand and accommodate our requirements.

其次，我們為關鍵供應商提供長期預測，以便他們能夠更好地理解和滿足我們的要求。

And third, we are more comprehensively scanning for obstacles in our supply chain.

第三，我們正在更全面地掃描供應鏈中的障礙。

Risk mitigation actions include stockpiling of critical parts like semis, dual sourcing and design interchangeability in the case of single sources.

風險緩解措施包括儲備關鍵零件（如半成品）、雙重採購以及單一來源的設計互換性。

These changes are all being applied to new technologies as well, including batteries, which are rapidly becoming a larger portion of our bill of material at Ford.

這些變化也都應用於新技術，包括電池，電池正迅速成為福特物料清單的較大組成部分。

Our pending joint venture with SK Innovation, called Blue Oval SK, will produce EV battery cells and arrays, helping us secure supplies of batteries at competitive cost and performance levels really critical, given our demand for our new electric vehicles.

我們即將與SK Innovation 建立的合資企業名為Blue Oval SK，將生產電動車電池和陣列，考慮到我們對新型電動車的需求，幫助我們以具有競爭力的成本和性能水平確保電池供應，這一點至關重要。

And now I'd like to turn it over to John to take us through the results for the quarter and our outlook.

現在我想把它交給約翰，讓他帶我們了解本季的表現和我們的前景。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

So first, I want to reiterate that everything we do and every decision we are making, including capital allocation, is squarely focused on delivering our Ford+ plan.

首先，我想重申，我們所做的一切和所做的每一個決定，包括資本配置，都是為了實現我們的福特+計畫。

And you'll see that as I share our key takeaways from the quarter, our full year outlook and describe how we are positioned for even a stronger performance heading into 2022.

當我分享本季度的主要要點、全年展望並描述我們如何定位以在 2022 年實現更強勁的業績時，您將會看到。

And as Jim said, we delivered better-than-expected results, given the semiconductor constraints.

正如吉姆所說，考慮到半導體的限制，我們取得了好於預期的結果。

Year-over-year, our automotive business improved across several key financial metrics as we overlapped the industry-wide COVID-related manufacturing shutdowns we saw in the second quarter of last year.

與去年同期相比，我們的汽車業務在幾個關鍵財務指標上都有所改善，因為我們與去年第二季度看到的與新冠病毒相關的全行業生產停工重疊。

Now for a more accurate picture of our true trajectory in this present environment, we're focusing more on sequential comparisons, and we think those are more appropriate.

現在，為了更準確地了解我們在當前環境中的真實軌跡，我們更專注於順序比較，我們認為這些更合適。

While wholesales were down 28% sequentially, our teams optimized for revenue and profit with disciplined incentive spending and mix management.

雖然批發量連續下降 28%，但我們的團隊透過嚴格的激勵支出和組合管理來優化收入和利潤。

We allocated chips to customer orders, new launches and our more profitable vehicles.

我們將籌碼分配給客戶訂單、新產品和利潤更高的車輛。

In addition, the strength of our sales order bank gives us confidence in our ability to drive a more balanced performance of wholesales, revenue and profit in the second half of this year, including sequential improvement in wholesales and share.

此外，我們銷售訂單庫的實力使我們有信心有能力在今年下半年推動批發、收入和利潤更加平衡的表現，包括批發和份額的連續改善。

So let's turn to our results.

那麼讓我們看看我們的結果。

On a consolidated basis, wholesales and revenue were up 18% and 38% year-over-year, respectively, and we delivered adjusted EBIT of $1.1 billion with adjusted margin of 4%.

綜合來看，批發量和營收分別年增 18% 和 38%，調整後息稅前利潤為 11 億美元，調整後利潤率為 4%。

Outside of North America, our underlying trajectory continues to improve despite the impact of the semiconductors, and that's driven by more focused product portfolios, geographic footprint as well as lower costs.

在北美以外，儘管受到半導體的影響，我們的基本軌跡仍在繼續改善，這是由更集中的產品組合、地理覆蓋範圍以及更低的成本所推動的。

And Ford Credit continued to deliver strong performance with record quarterly EBT of $1.6 billion, and that's demonstrating why it's a strategic asset and critical to enabling Ford+.

福特信貸持續表現強勁，季度息稅前利潤達到創紀錄的 16 億美元，這說明了為什麼它是一項戰略資產，並且對於實現 Ford+ 至關重要。

And a prime example is through the launch of a new service like Ford Pro FinSimple, which provides bundled financing for commercial vehicles, services and EV charging.

一個典型的例子是福特 Pro FinSimple 等新服務的推出，該服務為商用車、服務和電動車充電提供捆綁融資。

And so it's another example of Ford Credit being a strategic weapon for us.

這是福特信貸成為我們戰略武器的另一個例子。

Now turning to the regions.

現在轉向地區。

North America posted a 40% sequential decline in wholesales due to the semiconductor shortage.

由於半導體短缺，北美批發量較上季下降 40%。

Now as we manage the chip constraints, we've focused our efforts on customer or customers ordering vehicles for future delivery.

現在，當我們管理晶片限制時，我們將重點放在客戶或訂購車輛以便將來交付的客戶上。

We exited the second quarter with our U.S. customer sold order bank up more than 7x compared to a year ago.

第二季結束時，我們的美國客戶銷售訂單量比一年前增加了 7 倍以上。

And with new models to come, we are clearly poised for a rebound in North America when the semiconductor supply stabilizes and aligns with demand.

隨著新型號的推出，當半導體供應穩定並與需求保持一致時，我們顯然已做好北美反彈的準備。

On a year-over-year basis, EBIT was up $1.1 billion.

息稅前利潤年增 11 億美元。

Outside of North America, the turnaround of our operations remains on track.

在北美以外，我們的業務扭虧為盈仍在軌道上。

In aggregate, EBIT improved $800 million year-over-year but declined sequentially, mainly driven by Europe where the semiconductor shortage caused wholesale units to drop sequentially by nearly 35%.

總體而言，息稅前利潤年增 8 億美元，但環比下降，主要是由於歐洲半導體短缺導致批發單位環比下降近 35%。

The transformation in Europe continues as the region capitalizes on strength in commercial vehicles with Ford Pro and a more focused passenger portfolio, including key imports.

歐洲的轉型仍在繼續，該地區利用福特 Pro 等商用車的優勢和更集中的乘用車產品組合（包括主要進口產品）。

Europe has stepped up investments in electrification, including $1 billion for a new EV manufacturing center in Cologne, the launch of our E-Transit next spring, and a new, all-electric light commercial vehicle from Romania.

歐洲加大了對電氣化的投資，包括斥資 10 億美元在科隆建設新的電動車製造中心、明年春天推出 E-Transit 以及羅馬尼亞推出的新型全電動輕型商用車。

In South America, our restructuring is on track.

在南美，我們的重整工作已步入正軌。

Our lean, derisked and asset-light business model is focused on our strengths with Ranger, Transit and key imported vehicles.

我們精益、低風險和輕資產的業務模式專注於我們在 Ranger、Transit 和主要進口車輛方面的優勢。

The region introduced Bronco Sport and Mustang Mach 1 in selected markets and is preparing now for the launch of the new Transit van in the second half of this year.

該地區在選定的市場推出了 Bronco Sport 和 Mustang Mach 1，目前正準備在今年下半年推出新款 Transit 貨車。

In China, we continued to see improvement in key areas of focus, including Lincoln, commercial vehicles, electric vehicles and with our portfolio of near-premium Ford vehicles.

在中國，我們繼續看到關鍵領域的進步，包括林肯、商用車、電動車以及我們近乎高端的福特汽車產品組合。

Lincoln attained its highest-ever quarterly sales, was profitable and also captured the #1 spot in J.D. Power's luxury sales satisfaction ranking, unseating Audi, which had held the position for 11 years.

林肯實現了有史以來最高的季度銷售，實現盈利，並在 J.D. Power 豪華車銷售滿意度排名中名列第一，取代了保持這一位置 11 年的奧迪。

In addition, 97% of Lincoln's volume is now produced locally, and commercial vehicles now account for 52% of overall sales mix in China.

此外，林肯97%的銷售目前在中國本土生產，商用車目前佔中國總銷售量的52%。

And finally, we are readying for the launch of the localized Mustang Mach-E later this year.

最後，我們準備在今年稍後推出在地化的 Mustang Mach-E。

Our International Markets Group, we delivered another solid quarter, leveraging its portfolio strengths with Ranger pickups and Everest SUV.

我們的國際市場集團利用其 Ranger 皮卡和 Everest SUV 的產品組合優勢，再次實現了穩健的季度業績。

And we're continuing to assess our business in India, and we'll have more to say on this later this year.

我們正在繼續評估我們在印度的業務，今年稍後我們將對此發表更多評論。

Company-wide, second quarter adjusted free cash flow was negative $5.1 billion.

第二季全公司調整後自由現金流為負 51 億美元。

As expected, semiconductor-related volume losses had a greater impact on the free cash flow than EBIT because of adverse working capital and timing differences related to customer allowances for marketing incentives.

正如預期的那樣，由於不利的營運資本以及與行銷激勵的客戶補貼相關的時間差異，與半導體相關的銷售損失對自由現金流的影響比息稅前利潤更大。

Ford Credit did provide a partial offset with distributions of $4 billion in the quarter.

福特信貸確實在本季度透過 40 億美元的分配提供了部分抵消。

Now we expect working capital and these timing differences to normalize over time as the semiconductor supply is restored.

現在，隨著半導體供應的恢復，我們預計營運資金和這些時間差異將逐漸正常化。

Cash and liquidity remained very strong, ending the quarter at $25.1 billion and $41 billion, respectively.

現金和流動性仍然非常強勁，本季末分別達到 251 億美元和 410 億美元。

The strength of our balance sheet provides significant financial flexibility to navigate periods of stress while also continuing to invest in growth in our Ford+ plan.

我們的資產負債表實力提供了巨大的財務靈活性，可以應對壓力時期，同時繼續投資於我們的福特+計劃的成長。

So now let's turn to the outlook.

現在讓我們轉向展望。

Based on the underlying strength of our business and present assessment of the semiconductor supplies through the second half, along with other factors, we have increased our outlook for full year adjusted EBIT to between $9 billion to $10 billion.

根據我們業務的潛在實力和目前對下半年半導體供應的評估以及其他因素，我們將全年調整後息稅前利潤的預期上調至 90 億美元至 100 億美元之間。

Now this assumes about a 30% sequential increase in volume in our second half versus our first half, which is supported by the anticipated improvement in the supply of semiconductors.

現在假設我們下半年的銷售量比上半年成長約 30%，這得到了半導體供應預期改善的支持。

Our guidance implies we are -- we expect second half adjusted EBIT to be lower than the first half of the year.

我們的指導意味著我們預計下半年調整後的息稅前利潤將低於上半年。

And so we provided a bridge to help with this, and we've included that on Page 19 of our earnings presentation.

因此，我們提供了一個橋樑來幫助實現這一目標，並將其納入收益報告的第 19 頁。

So let me provide a little bit of color around this.

因此，讓我對此提供一點顏色。

Relative to tailwinds, we expect about $3 billion to $4 billion in favorable market factors, net of an increase in volume-related production costs for the higher volumes.

相對於順風車，我們預計有利的市場因素帶來約 30 億至 40 億美元的美元，扣除與產量增加相關的生產成本的增加。

Headwinds, right?

逆風，對嗎？

We see headwinds coming through, and we see pressure on contribution margin.

我們看到逆風即將到來，我們看到邊際收益面臨壓力。

We expect commodities to be up almost $2 billion half-over-half.

我們預計大宗商品價格將上漲近 20 億美元。

Warranty costs are expected to be higher in the second half, up about $500 million, though we still expect full year warranty expense to be down year-over-year.

預計下半年保固成本將更高，增加約 5 億美元，但我們仍預計全年保固費用將年減。

Relative to structural costs, about $1.5 billion in investments in modernization, consistent with what we laid out in May, including customer experiences, connectivity, IT, new product launches.

相對於結構性成本，現代化投資約為 15 億美元，與我們 5 月的計畫一致，包括客戶體驗、連結、IT、新產品發布。

Looking at Ford Credit, based on current market dynamics, we expect Ford Credit to decline by about $1 billion as auction values begin to normalize, and we also have a non-repeat of reserve releases that we had in the first half.

看看福特信貸，根據當前的市場動態，隨著拍賣價格開始正常化，我們預計福特信貸將下降約 10 億美元，而且我們也不會重複上半年的儲備釋放。

And lastly, we also have the nonrecurrence of the $900 million noncash gain on Rivian we booked in the first quarter.

最後，我們在第一季預訂的 Rivian 9 億美元非現金收益也不再出現。

And it's important to note that this gain also impacts our run rate heading into 2022.

值得注意的是，這項收益也會影響我們進入 2022 年的運行率。

We are also increasing our full year adjusted free cash flow target to $4 billion to $5 billion, supported by expected favorable working capital in the second half as production increases from an anticipated improvement in chip availability.

我們也將全年調整後自由現金流目標提高至 40 億至 50 億美元，這得益於下半年預期有利的營運資金，以及晶片可用性預期改善導致產量增加。

Now as our operating results improve, so does our cash conversion, which we continue to target in the range of 50% to 60%.

現在，隨著我們經營業績的改善，我們的現金轉換率也隨之提高，我們的目標仍然是在 50% 至 60% 的範圍內。

And the strength in cash conversion and our balance sheet provides us ample financial flexibility to invest in growth, including in EVs, Ford Pro, our connected services and Mobility.

現金轉換和資產負債表的優勢為我們提供了充足的財務靈活性來投資成長，包括電動車、福特 Pro、我們的互聯服務和移動出行。

Now looking towards 2022, we are confident in the underlying trajectory of our business and excited to see the momentum continue as we leverage one of the strongest product lineups in our history and continue to implement our Ford+ plan.

現在展望 2022 年，我們對業務的基本軌跡充滿信心，並很高興看到隨著我們利用歷史上最強大的產品陣容之一併繼續實施我們的福特+計劃，這一勢頭將持續下去。

We're on a new path at Ford.

我們福特正走在一條新道路上。

We've got a plan, the resources and the resolve to build a better business.

我們有計劃、資源和決心來打造更好的業務。

So now I'll hand it over to the operator to open it up for questions.

現在我將把它交給操作員來打開它以供提問。

Our first question comes from the line of Brian Johnson, Barclays.

我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

I've got a couple of questions.

我有幾個問題。

First, a little bit of housekeeping.

首先，做一些家事工作。

But just thinking ahead to '22, if we take the second half at a good rate of $3.5 billion but also bear in mind that your first half is typically the stronger half of the year for Ford, is there any read-through for 2022?

但展望 22 年，如果我們下半年的成長率為 35 億美元，但也要記住，上半年通常是福特今年表現最好的一半，那麼對 2022 年有什麼展望嗎？

Brian, thanks.

布萊恩，謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

I think the way we see it is that we've got strength in the underlying performance of our business.

我認為我們的看法是，我們的業務基礎績效具有優勢。

As we head into 2022, we also know that the product lineup is going to get stronger, right?

進入2022年，我們也知道產品陣容將會變得更強大，對嗎？

We're just launching Bronco now.

我們現在剛推出 Bronco。

We've got F-150 Lightning next year.

明年我們將擁有 F-150 閃電。

We have Maverick next year.

明年我們有特立獨行的人。

And we also expect that we should get to more of a full line rate on our manufacturing of all our other vehicles and new vehicles that we've had this year.

我們也期望我們今年所有其他車輛和新車的製造能夠達到更高的全線生產率。

So we do see strength in the product lineup heading into next year.

因此，我們確實看到明年產品陣容的實力。

But what we also see heading into next year, a few headwinds.

但我們也看到明年會遇到一些阻力。

Ford Credit, we expect that to be more normalized to our run rate that we normally see.

福特信貸，我們預計這將與我們通常看到的運行率更加正常化。

And that's because we see auction values coming down, and then we should see our credit reserves and our credit losses normalize as well.

那是因為我們看到拍賣價值下降，然後我們應該看到我們的信貸儲備和信貸損失也正常化。

We also see that next year, as volumes increase and stocks increase across the industry, we should see some pricing moderation.

我們還看到，明年，隨著整個行業的銷售增加和庫存增加，我們應該會看到定價放緩。

Again, we also see commodities being higher next year as well.

同樣，我們也預計明年大宗商品價格也會上漲。

And we're going to continue to invest in our new product portfolios.

我們將繼續投資於我們的新產品組合。

We've got the launches coming in next year.

我們將於明年推出這些產品。

We've got our Ford+ plan.

我們已經有了福特+計劃。

So we see that continuing as we head into next year as well.

因此，我們認為這種情況在進入明年時也會繼續下去。

So there are some headwinds but the underlying strength of the business continues to be positive.

因此存在一些阻力，但業務的潛在實力仍然是積極的。

And with that, we see that trajectory continuing into '22 and then on our way to the 8% EBIT margin for '23.

由此，我們看到這一軌跡將持續到 22 年，然後在 23 年達到 8% 的息稅前利潤率。

Okay.

好的。

And just a follow-up.

只是後續行動。

The $1.5 billion 2H headwind from investments in modernization, is that something new that was planned for this year but maybe back-end-loaded due to management focusing on the chip shortage?

現代化投資帶來的 15 億美元的 2H 逆風，是今年計劃的新事物，但可能是由於管理層專注於晶片短缺而造成的後端負載？

Or kind of how do you think about that?

或者你對此有何看法？

No, that was planned.

不，那是計劃好的。

That's coming in.

就這樣進來了

Part of that is due to the launches of the vehicles.

部分原因是車輛的推出。

And with the launch costs comes advertising.

隨著啟動成本的增加，廣告也隨之而來。

But we're also investing in connectivity, the IT we need to put in place for the connectivity as well as customer experiences, digital experiences, user experiences with the vehicle.

但我們也在投資連結性、我們需要為連結性部署的 IT 以及客戶體驗、數位體驗、車輛使用者體驗。

So we're continuing to invest to build out our Ford+ plan.

因此，我們將繼續投資來制定我們的福特+計劃。

And we are not slowing down on modernization because of the chip situation.

我們並沒有因為晶片的情況而放慢現代化進程。

In fact, we're doing the opposite.

事實上，我們正​​在做相反的事。

Okay.

好的。

And a question for Jim.

還有一個問題要問吉姆。

As you look at the order book for the F-150 Lightning and what's shaping up for the Bronco and the Maverick, any sense of how many of those customers are -- as you mentioned, the F-150 may be new to Ford but also may be new to that segment.

當您查看 F-150 Lightning 的訂單簿以及 Bronco 和 Maverick 的情況時，您會知道其中有多少客戶 - 正如您所提到的，F-150 對福特來說可能是新的，但也對於該細分市場來說可能是新的。

So for example, SUV buyers migrating to the Lightning due to the storage or the bidirectional charging and other features.

例如，SUV 買家由於儲存或雙向充電等功能而轉向 Lightning。

Great question.

很好的問題。

Put simply, what we've learned about our very large order bank for Lightning is way over-indexed on the Coast.

簡而言之，我們了解到，我們的閃電訂單庫在海岸線的索引過高。

Almost 80% are new to Ford.

近 80% 的人是福特的新手。

What's interesting, 2 out of 5 are people who are going to trade in an ICE pickup, which is very important because it indicates a move a little bit faster to full-size truck BEV than maybe our optimistic assumptions.

有趣的是，五分之二的人會購買 ICE 皮卡，這一點非常重要，因為它表明轉向全尺寸卡車 BEV 的速度比我們樂觀的假設要快一些。

And so I would say what we've learned so far is that the customers are largely new to Ford but they aren't new to this segment.

因此，我想說的是，到目前為止，我們了解到的客戶大多是福特的新客戶，但他們對這個細分市場並不陌生。

These are customers who really like these silhouetted vehicles.

這些顧客非常喜歡這些剪影車輛。

What is really interesting for me is someone would portray the full-size truck industry as kind of a conservative customer.

對我來說真正有趣的是有人會把全尺寸卡車行業描述為保守的客戶。

That's not what we're seeing.

這不是我們所看到的。

These very large order bank for F-150 Lightning, they're new to BEV and they are excited to move to BEV.

這些 F-150 Lightning 訂單庫非常大，他們是 BEV 新手，並且很高興轉向 BEV。

And they are -- more than half of them are pickup truck customers.

他們中超過一半是皮卡車客戶。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

I just first wanted to clarify the answer that you gave to Brian's question.

我首先想澄清你對布萊恩問題的回答。

So you're going to be annualizing at $6 billion to $8 billion in the back half.

因此，下半年的年化收益將達到 60 億至 80 億美元。

And I think what a lot of people want to understand is, is that kind of a fair bridging-off point for us to think about what happens from here into 2022 and beyond?

我認為很多人想了解的是，這是否是一個公平的過渡點，讓我們思考從現在到 2022 年及以後會發生什麼？

So did you assume some moderation of pricing already in that number?

那麼，您是否假設該數字中的定價已經有所調整？

Is that level of investment kind of the run rate?

這種投資水準是運作率嗎？

And how should we think about the incremental benefit from that run rate for Bronco, Maverick, the further warranty improvement and some of the international improvements that you're working on?

我們應該如何考慮 Bronco、Maverick 的運行率帶來的增量效益、進一步的保固改進以及您正在進行的一些國際改進？

Rod, thanks.

羅德，謝謝。

So in the second half, we show the net number there for the volume, net of the manufacturing production costs and other market factors.

因此，在下半年，我們顯示了扣除製造生產成本和其他市場因素後的淨銷售量。

So what we are assuming is that in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter, we start to see some moderation in pricing due to the fact that we should see volumes and inventories and stocks coming up a bit.

因此，我們的假設是，在今年下半年，特別是在第四季度，我們開始看到定價放緩，因為我們應該會看到銷售、庫存和庫存上升。

So that is something that we do have built into that number for the second half, particularly in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們確實將這一點納入下半年的數字中，尤其是第四季。

And then when it comes to 2022, Bronco is just getting up now -- up and running now, launched now.

到了 2022 年，Bronco 才剛起步——現在就開始運行，現在就推出了。

As Jim said, we have a hefty order bank there.

正如吉姆所說，我們在那裡有大量的訂單庫。

And then F-150 Lightning, Maverick, they're launching next year.

然後是 F-150 Lightning、Maverick，他們將於明年推出。

So our product portfolio is strong today, is going to be even stronger next year.

因此，我們的產品組合今天很強大，明年將會更加強大。

And so we see that contributing to the run rate as well.

因此我們看到這也對運行率有所貢獻。

So I think coming out of Capital Markets Day, we talked about the trajectory of the business, 2022 being definitely stronger than '21 as we walk towards 2023 and the 8% EBIT margin that we plan to hit.

因此，我認為在資本市場日結束後，我們討論了業務發展軌跡，隨著我們邁向 2023 年，2022 年肯定會強於 21 年，以及我們計劃達到 8% 的息稅前利潤率。

And just secondly, really interesting comment about that sevenfold increase in your order bank and changing the way that vehicles are sold.

其次，關於訂單庫增加七倍以及改變車輛銷售方式的非常有趣的評論。

Can you just talk a little bit about what that actually means from a volume perspective?

您能從數量的角度談談這實際上意味著什麼嗎？

Because I don't think we've ever really known what your actual customer order bank actually -- but what's the magnitude of that?

因為我認為我們從未真正了解過您的實際客戶訂單銀行實際上是什麼 - 但其規模有多大？

Maybe you could just tell us what that number was a year ago.

也許你可以告訴我們一年前的數字是多少。

And any thoughts on what this actually means for pricing?

對於這對定價實際上意味著什麼有什麼想法嗎？

Obviously, it's positive, but those units are not going to land on dealer lots for very long.

顯然，這是積極的，但這些單位不會在經銷商土地上停留很長時間。

So it would seem that there's really not a big reason to significantly boost incentives anytime soon if they're leaving lots very quickly.

因此，如果他們很快就離開很多地方，那麼似乎沒有什麼理由在短期內大幅提高激勵措施。

Thank you, Rod.

謝謝你，羅德。

Put simply, we're really committed to both going to an order-based system and keeping our inventories between 50 and 60 days supply.

簡而言之，我們確實致力於採用基於訂單的系統，並將我們的庫存保持在 50 到 60 天的供應範圍內。

I've been here at Ford for 13 years.

我在福特工作了 13 年。

There were many years after the financial crisis where our days supply was 20, 30, 40 days.

金融危機後的許多年裡，我們的供應天數是 20 天、30 天、40 天。

And in those years, the maximum retail order bank we had in the U.S. was 1,000 to 2,000 a month.

那些年，我們在美國的最大零售訂單銀行是每月 1,000 到 2,000 個。

We are now at 70,000 units on our way to 80,000 units.

我們現在的產量為 70,000 台，正在向 80,000 台邁進。

That gives you the order of magnitude difference in the way we're looking at this order bank change for the company.

這給了你我們看待公司訂單庫變化的方式的數量級差異。

A lot of people in our industry are making a big deal about the move online, sure.

當然，我們行業的許多人都在大力宣傳線上遷移。

But for Ford, we think there's massive benefit across all stakeholders for going to an order bank system.

但對於福特來說，我們認為使用訂單銀行系統會為所有利害關係人帶來巨大的好處。

You put pressure on our industrial system to deliver quickly.

您對我們的工業系統施加壓力，要求其快速交付。

It reduces our dealers' costs more than just low days supply as you mentioned.

它降低了我們經銷商的成本，而不僅僅是您提到的低天供應。

It allows us to significantly reduce our incentives.

它使我們能夠顯著減少我們的激勵措施。

And I guarantee you -- I don't know how much money we're wasting.

我向你保證——我不知道我們浪費了多少錢。

I know we're wasting money on incentives.

我知道我們在激勵措施上浪費了錢。

I just don't know where.

我只是不知道在哪裡。

With an order-based system, we will have much less risk of that.

有了以訂單為基礎的系統，我們的風險就會小得多。

It requires us to dramatically reduce our order complexity as well.

它還要求我們大幅降低訂單複雜性。

So there are a lot of enablers that have been put in place to move us to this new system and new go-to-market approach.

因此，我們已經採取了許多推動因素來推動我們採用這個新系統和新的上市方法。

I'd love to talk to you more about it, but I've tried to give you the high hard ones.

我很想和你更多地談論它，但我已經盡力給你提供高難度的內容。

Our next question comes from John Murphy, Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

I just wanted to actually follow up quickly on that.

我只是想快速跟進此事。

Jim, you mentioned getting back to 50 to 60 days supply.

吉姆，您提到恢復 50 至 60 天的供應量。

That sounds closer to normal than not, but you're also -- the way you're describing your order bank, it looks -- it sounds like 20% to 25% of your sales would be built-to-order horseshoes and hand grenades.

這聽起來比不正常更接近正常，但你也 - 你描述你的訂單銀行的方式，它看起來 - 聽起來你的銷售額的 20% 到 25% 將是按訂單生產的馬蹄鐵和手榴彈。

So I'm just curious how you decide where that balance lands, how you keep the inventory tight, your partners' dealership happy and selling and creating value for you.

所以我只是好奇你如何決定平衡點，如何保持庫存緊張，如何讓合作夥伴的經銷商滿意，如何為你銷售和創造價值。

But then also a big part of the story is the tightness in the secondary market, in the used market is keeping receipts high, which is helping the new vehicle price and it's certainly helping out at Ford Motor Credit.

但故事的一個重要部分是二級市場的緊張，二手市場的收入保持在高位，這有助於新車價格，也肯定有助於福特汽車信貸。

So I mean there's kind of a seesaw effect here to get the benefit on both sides.

所以我的意思是，這裡存在著一種蹺蹺板效應，可以讓雙方都受益。

I just -- how do you figure out where this should land and how you actually execute on it?

我只是——你如何弄清楚這應該落在哪裡以及你如何實際執行它？

A really good question.

一個非常好的問題。

So the team has done a lot of work on this.

所以團隊在這方面做了很多工作。

I'll try to answer it very simply.

我會嘗試非常簡單地回答這個問題。

Our target is 50 to 60 days supply.

我們的目標是 50 至 60 天的供應。

That means trucks will be a little bit higher.

這意味著卡車的價格會更高一些。

We have a lot -- about 1/3 of our truck dealers in C and D county.

我們有很多——大約 1/3 的卡車經銷商位於 C 縣和 D 縣。

5 trucks to them could be 100 days supply but they need 5 trucks for the local community.

5 輛卡車對他們來說可以滿足 100 天的供應，但他們需要 5 輛卡車供當地社區使用。

And for urban and suburban dealers, it will be less than that range.

而對於城市和郊區的經銷商來說，會低於這個範圍。

Different segments will have different targets.

不同的細分市場會有不同的目標。

We actually did this post financial crisis for a few years and then, over time, lost discipline.

實際上，我們在金融危機後已經這樣做了幾年，然後隨著時間的推移，我們失去了紀律。

And this is quite important for this management team.

這對這個管理團隊來說非常重要。

We have a weekly and a monthly operations review, where we'll look at this very carefully by segment for each of the regions.

我們每周和每月進行一次營運審查，我們將按每個地區的細分市場非常仔細地進行審查。

That's the kind of soft wiring or management judgment.

這就是一種軟佈線或管理判斷。

Going to an order bank, I would say, is a hardwired way of reducing the stock.

我想說，去訂單銀行是減少庫存的一種固有方法。

And I think it's going to take both for Ford to make this transition.

我認為福特需要兩者兼而有之才能實現這一轉變。

It can't be just relying on management keeping within that range.

不能僅僅依靠管理層來保持在這個範圍內。

We certainly will have exception -- an exception process to go beyond that, and there will be a pretty tough discussion with our operating teams.

我們當然會有例外──一個超越這一點的例外流程，而我們的營運團隊將會進行非常艱難的討論。

But I think what I'm more excited about is the hardwiring of going to an order-to-delivery order system, which actually our new launches gave us that gift because for Bronco and Mach-E and some of the other high-demand vehicles, we moved the reservation system into an order bank system.

但我認為我更興奮的是進入訂單到交付訂單系統的硬連線，實際上我們的新發布給了我們這份禮物，因為對於 Bronco 和 Mach-E 以及其他一些高需求車輛，我們將預訂系統轉移到訂單銀行系統。

We then realized, "My God, why don't we do this for all the vehicles, not just those vehicles?" And that's when we had to put a series of incentives and more policy changes, like order complexity reduction in the system, to make it kind of the way we do things at Ford.

然後我們意識到，“天哪，為什麼我們不對所有車輛都這樣做，而不僅僅是那些車輛？”那時我們必須採取一系列激勵措施和更多政策變化，例如降低系統中的訂單複雜性，以使其符合我們在福特的行事方式。

I think it's going to require both changes.

我認為這兩個方面都需要改變。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And just a follow-up on that.

這只是後續行動。

On current state of affairs of retail versus fleet mix, I mean it seems like when you talk to the dealers, there's an emphasis on retail, the dealers certainly at your level.

就零售與車隊組合的當前狀況而言，我的意思是，當您與經銷商交談時，重點是零售，經銷商肯定與您處於同一級別。

I'm just curious if fleet comes back -- I mean the demand is there, right?

我只是好奇艦隊是否會回來——我的意思是需求是存在的，對嗎？

How are you balancing that...

你如何平衡這一點...

Sure, it is.

就是這樣。

Current days and go forward.

當前的日子並繼續前進。

I mean because the demand is there.

我的意思是因為需求就在那裡。

It's just some of it's getting fulfilled in the used market, right?

這只是其中的一部分在二手市場實現，對嗎？

I mean they're going after auctions instead of even ordering from you guys.

我的意思是他們會進行拍賣，而不是向你們訂購。

So I mean how do we think about that recovery go forward?

所以我的意思是我們如何看待未來的復甦？

And where does it stand right now?

它現在處於什麼位置？

Really good questions.

確實是好問題。

So it depends on the region.

所以這取決於地區。

Of course, we're a dominant commercial brand in multiple regions like Western Europe and the U.S., even in China in certain segments.

當然，我們是西歐和美國等多個地區的主導商業品牌，甚至在中國的某些細分市場也是如此。

And we're seeing, in Europe, a very dramatic order bank on our vans.

我們在歐洲看到我們貨車上的訂單量非常大。

It is something I've never seen in my career.

這是我職業生涯中從未見過的事情。

We're talking months and months and months of back orders.

我們正在談論幾個月又幾個月的延期交貨訂單。

So the demand for our commercial vehicles in Europe is extremely strong.

所以歐洲對我們商用車的需求是非常旺盛的。

The order bank is months and months.

訂單銀行是幾個月。

In the U.S., we're very fortunate that our commercial business is heavily focused on Transit and Super Duty.

在美國，我們非常幸運，我們的商業業務主要集中在運輸和超級值勤上。

And of course, F-150 is kind of mixed.

當然，F-150 的情況是好壞參半。

And so for those vehicle lines, Transit and Super Duty is very easy to -- we don't have to prioritize between retail and commercial because those vehicle lines are almost 100% commercial.

因此，對於這些車輛系列，Transit 和 Super Duty 非常容易——我們不必在零售和商業之間優先考慮，因為這些車輛系列幾乎 100% 商業化。

The one that's challenging for us to balance is F-150.

對我們來說平衡具有挑戰性的是 F-150。

And we -- as you could see in this quarter, we're very carefully mix-managing, but we are very respectful of the needs of our commercial customers.

正如您在本季度所看到的，我們非常仔細地進行混合管理，但我們非常尊重商業客戶的需求。

We know where our toast is buttered.

我們知道我們的吐司是在哪裡塗黃油的。

And those customers are really important for us.

這些客戶對我們來說非常重要。

In fact, we are in discussions with them right now about the trade-off between feature content and availability.

事實上，我們現在正在與他們討論功能內容和可用性之間的權衡。

We have many commercial customers in the U.S. that have been waiting for months and months for the vehicle.

我們在美國有許多商業客戶，他們已經等待這輛車好幾個月了。

And we are discussing with them, "Would you be willing to take off feature content to get your vehicles now?" And that's -- and you can expect us to be balanced about that discussion and negotiation and compromise.

我們正在與他們討論，“您現在願意取消功能內容來獲取您的車輛嗎？”那就是——你可以期望我們在討論、談判和妥協方面保持平衡。

It's -- and it's -- we'll make the right call for the company and for the customer, but they are pushing us for availability now even if it means lower feature content.

我們將為公司和客戶做出正確的決定，但他們現在正在敦促我們提供可用性，即使這意味著功能內容會減少。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Great call so far.

到目前為止，通話效果很好。

And Jim, I have to say I did a Ctrl+

吉姆，我不得不說我按下了 Ctrl+

F for the word hybrid in the deck and in the press release and I don't see it, man.

在甲板和新聞稿中，F 代表“混合”一詞，但我沒有看到它，夥計。

No hybrid.

沒有混合體。

It's a beautiful thing, so good.

這是一件很美好的事情，太好了。

We don't know -- we haven't seen any...

我們不知道——我們還沒有看到任何...

Yes, but they're dead.

是的，但他們已經死了。

They're gone.

他們走了。

All right.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

My question on EVs, right, your BEVs, when do you think that they can be a positive profit on a fully costed basis, not contribution?

我的問題是關於電動車，對吧，你們的純電動車，您認為它們什麼時候可以在完全成本基礎上實現正利潤，而不是貢獻？

Like when can they be profitable?

例如什麼時候可以獲利？

And do you think it's -- 2022 is still too early for that?

您認為 2022 年還為時過早嗎？

My first and I have a follow-up.

我的第一個和我有一個後續行動。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝，亞當。

Actually, Mach-E is profitable, contribution margin positive and profitable on the bottom line today.

事實上，Mach-E 是盈利的，邊際貢獻為正，並且今天的淨利潤是盈利的。

So we've seen strong demand for that, yes.

所以我們看到了對此的強烈需求，是的。

So I think when we look at it, over time, as we've talked about at Capital Markets Day and we've talked about with you, we've got to ride that technology curve down.

因此，我認為，當我們審視這個問題時，隨著時間的推移，正如我們在資本市場日以及我們與您討論的那樣，我們必須順應技術曲線下降。

We've got to get to the $80 per kilowatt-hour for the battery pack before the end of the decade.

我們必須在本世紀末之前使電池組的價格達到每千瓦時 80 美元。

We've got to scale the BEV content.

我們必須擴展 BEV 內容。

We have commonality in the top hats and other components that will help us as well.

我們在大禮帽和其他組件上有共同點，這也對我們有幫助。

And then of course, we need to build on our services and such to really improve the profitability of the BEVs as we move forward.

當然，隨著我們的前進，我們需要以我們的服務等為基礎，真正提高純電動車的獲利能力。

But I can tell you that Mach-E is profitable today.

但我可以告訴你，Mach-E 今天已經獲利了。

Well, I mean that's incredible at a $50,000 type run rate for -- if that -- for that to be correct.

嗯，我的意思是，以 50,000 美元的運行速度來看，這真是令人難以置信——如果是這樣——那麼這是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

My follow-on question, Jim, is about always-on in the order bank.

吉姆，我的後續問題是關於訂單庫中始終在線的問題。

I mean, I think this is really huge.

我的意思是，我認為這真的很大。

Just really interesting, when you combine the order bank system with always-on, where you go kind of can engage the consumer directly for services and F&I and insurance and the OTA.

真的很有趣，當你將訂單銀行系統與永遠在線相結合時，你所去的地方可以直接吸引消費者參與服務、F&I、保險和 OTA。

But I am talking to some dealers that are freaking out, that some Darwinian forces could be at work where you're not, let's say, directly infringing on the franchise laws but you're dancing close, as you probably should, given all the technological changes over the past 70 or 80 years since these laws came.

但我正在和一些嚇壞了的經銷商交談，一些達爾文主義的力量可能在起作用，比如說，你沒有直接違反特許經營法，但你正在跳舞，因為你可能應該這樣做，考慮到所有的自這些法律出台以來，過去70 或80 年的技術變革。

So what's your message to them?

那你想對他們說些什麼呢？

What if order book goes to 80% of your units or the majority and then the dealers are just the delivery centers and then you're going direct on all the other wonderful services?

如果您的 80% 或大多數單位都有訂單，然後經銷商只是交付中心，然後您可以直接使用所有其他優質服務，該怎麼辦？

What's the message to the dealers?

對經銷商有何訊息？

Great question.

很好的問題。

Well, we're going to have a couple of different population of dealers.

好吧，我們將有幾個不同群體的經銷商。

We're going to have our professional dealers, and the answer is a little different for them versus our retail dealers.

我們將擁有專業經銷商，他們的答案與我們的零售經銷商略有不同。

We'll have our rural dealers, and the answer is a little bit different for them than the suburban urban dealers.

我們會有鄉村經銷商，他們的答案與郊區城市經銷商有點不同。

The -- I would say the message we're giving to our team, our dealers is, look, we're going to have to work really carefully together so -- because the customers are going to have a lot of questions on Ford BlueCruise, for example.

我想說的是，我們向我們的團隊和經銷商傳達的訊息是，看，我們必須非常仔細地合作，因為客戶會對福特 BlueCruise 有很多問題， 例如。

So we want to make sure the dealers are very knowledgeable about these new OTA features that are really meaningful in the use of the customer's life.

因此，我們希望確保經銷商非常了解這些新的 OTA 功能，這些功能對客戶的使用生活確實有意義。

That's one.

這是一個。

The second one is service, service, service.

第二個是服務、服務、服務。

That is the most important thing for us.

這對我們來說是最重要的。

It's wiring a closed loop between the vehicle, the condition of the vehicle, the service capacity of the dealers, and the customer is going to be the most important ballet we're going to have to play together with the dealers.

它在車輛、車輛狀況、經銷商的服務能力和客戶之間建立了一個閉環，這將是我們與經銷商一起表演的最重要的芭蕾。

This is especially true for Ford Pro.

對於福特 Pro 來說尤其如此。

And in fact, today, we already have 160 remote trucks doing service for our commercial customers at their business, warranty work.

事實上，今天我們已經有 160 輛遠端卡車為我們的商業客戶的業務、保固工作提供服務。

That's a good example of the evolution of the business model where they're taking their service department from a fixed hub and going on the road with their service capacity.

這是商業模式演變的一個很好的例子，他們將服務部門從固定的中心轉移到路上，並帶著他們的服務能力。

And those trucks have to be cooked into the vehicle data and the prognostics, our parts legacy system to order parts, and the dealers on dispatch system.

這些卡車必須融入車輛資料和預測、我們的零件遺留系統來訂購零件，以及經銷商的調度系統。

That has to be a closed loop.

這必須是一個閉環。

So all I would say to you is the orchestration and our benefit, our chance to win just like maybe targets a chance to win versus the online retailers is that in-person service, especially in professional customers.

因此，我要對您說的是編排和我們的利益，我們獲勝的機會就像可能的目標贏得與在線零售商的機會一樣，是面對面的服務，尤其是針對專業客戶。

Our next question will come from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的科林·蘭根 (Colin Langan)。

Congrats on a good quarter.

恭喜季度表現良好。

Inventory levels, we've never seen them at these levels obviously before, and obviously, it's impacting your market share.

庫存水平，我們以前從未見過這樣的水平，顯然，它正在影響您的市場份額。

Any sense of how much of that you think you could recoup and how much may -- or you're concerned may switch to other brands if people might only wait for so long?

您是否知道您認為自己可以收回多少，或者您擔心如果人們只能等待這麼長時間，可能會轉向其他品牌？

Colin, it's John.

科林，是約翰。

So I think what we're seeing here from a market share drop, it's completely related to the fact that our stocks reduced so much.

所以我認為我們在這裡看到的市場份額下降完全與我們的庫存減少如此之多有關。

We have the chip issue.

我們有晶片問題。

We lost the volumes that we lost in the second quarter.

我們失去了第二季失去的銷量。

We expect that as we work to improve the run rate and through the third quarter, we're very focused on maintaining this high turn rate, filling the orders that we have.

我們預計，在我們努力提高運行率的過程中，到第三季度，我們將非常專注於保持這種高週轉率，滿足我們的訂單。

As Jim said, we're going to continue to work on retail orders and continue to bring our customers along that way as well.

正如吉姆所說，我們將繼續處理零售訂單，並繼續以這種方式吸引我們的客戶。

So we think that we have a good chance to regain that share, especially with the strong lineup that we have.

因此，我們認為我們有很好的機會重新獲得這一份額，尤其是我們擁有強大的陣容。

And so we see this as a temporary issue related to the chip issue and the volume and production we had in the quarter.

因此，我們認為這是一個與晶片問題以及本季產量和產量相關的臨時問題。

And we will not cede truck leadership to anyone.

我們不會將卡車領導地位讓給任何人。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe we touch on connected services.

也許我們會涉及互聯服務。

You rolled out FORDLiive in Europe on commercial vehicles.

您在歐洲的商用車上推出了 FORDLiive。

I believe it's free right now.

我相信現在是免費的。

I mean how is that rollout going?

我的意思是，推出進度如何？

And when do you sort of try to monetize that and get revenue out of these services?

您什麼時候會嘗試將其貨幣化並從這些服務中獲得收入？

Great question.

很好的問題。

So we do -- we just launched FORDLiive, as you mentioned, in the U.K. and Spain.

所以我們這樣做了——正如您所提到的，我們剛剛在英國和西班牙推出了 FORDLiive。

We have 5 more EU countries covered by the end of the year to launch.

到今年年底，我們還將涵蓋另外 5 個歐盟國家。

So we're really excited about FORDLiive.

因此，我們對 FORDLiive 感到非常興奮。

What we've committed to so far is in the next couple of years, by 2025, we expect our digital and charging revenue in Ford Pro to be about $1 billion.

到目前為止，我們的承諾是在未來幾年內，也就是到 2025 年，我們預計福特 Pro 的數位和充電收入將達到約 10 億美元。

Today -- I wish we had more time to focus on this frankly, we have about just under 200,000 unique subscriptions for our telematics and data services.

今天——坦白說，我希望我們有更多的時間關注這一點，我們的遠端資訊處理和數據服務將有大約不到 200,000 個獨特的訂閱。

We grew at about 20,000 units in the core, 20,000 subscriptions in the quarter.

本季我們的核心數量增加了約 20,000 個，訂閱量達到了 20,000 個。

And we feel like that digital telematics and selling data like fuel tank information plus adding the charging services like Electriphi for depot charging for our customers are high-growth area with the revenue to that level in the next couple of years.

我們認為，數位遠端資訊處理和銷售油箱資訊等數據，加上為客戶提供充電站充電的 Electriphi 等充電服務，是高成長領域，未來幾年收入將達到這一水平。

The monetization of FORDLiive is really around our traditional parts business, which is very high margins and we have a very low share.

FORDLiive 的貨幣化實際上是圍繞我們的傳統零件業務展開的，該業務的利潤率非常高，而我們的份額卻非常低。

So the opportunity for us, upside, is tremendous.

因此，我們的機會是巨大的。

Post warranty, even in our commercial customers, we get very few of those customers.

保固後，即使是我們的商業客戶，我們也很少得到這樣的客戶。

And so the real payoff for this closed loop is going to be much higher share post warranty of that very profitable business.

因此，這個閉環的真正回報將是該利潤豐厚的業務保固後的份額要高得多。

Our next question will come from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

One thing that especially stood out in your results, I think, is on Slide 6 where it shows that units wholesaled in the quarter rose 18% year-over-year, but that revenue was up by more than twice as much by 38%.

我認為，您的結果中特別引人注目的一件事是幻燈片 6，其中顯示本季度批發的單位同比增長 18%，但收入增長了兩倍多，達 38%。

So just a few questions around pricing and overall revenue per unit.

所以只有幾個關於定價和單位總收入的問題。

I can see from the global walk on Slide 9 that net pricing helped EBIT by $1.9 billion or kind of like 10% of last year's revenue, which seems to suggest of the idea that like half of the growth in revenue over unit volume in 2Q was driven by price and the other half by mix.

我從幻燈片 9 上的全球行走中可以看到，淨定價幫助 EBIT 增加了 19 億美元，相當於去年收入的 10%，這似乎表明第二季度收入增長與單位銷量增長的一半是由價格驅動，另一半由組合驅動。

Is that roughly correct?

這大致正確嗎？

And what do you think the outlook is for continuing to grow revenue in excess of the change in volume?

您認為營收成長持續超過銷售變化的前景如何？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

It's -- I think pricing is the majority of what was behind that growth.

我認為價格是成長背後的主要因素。

We had a very strong quarter relative to pricing as we saw our inventory shrink, and we see the strength in the underlying demand of the products that we have.

我們的季度定價非常強勁，因為我們看到庫存減少，而且我們看到我們產品的潛在需求強勁。

And so I think I would think about it more as pricing, a little bit of mix in there but more of it is pricing.

所以我想我會更多地將其視為定價，其中有一點混合，但更多的是定價。

Okay.

好的。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

And then just as a follow-up, we saw some estimates that your incentive spending in June in the U.S., it may have fallen like 50% year-over-year, leading the decline in industry-wide incentives.

接下來，我們看到一些估計，美國 6 月的激勵支出可能比去年同期下降了 50%，導致全行業激勵措施的下降。

I'm curious how much of the decline in incentives do you think may be driven by hot new products like the F-150, Bronco, Bronco Sport, Mach-E, et cetera, versus how much is a function of the low inventory environment or maybe just a general inflationary environment.

我很好奇您認為激勵措施的下降有多少是由 F-150、Bronco、Bronco Sport、Mach-E 等熱門新產品推動的，而有多少是由低庫存環境造成的或也許只是普遍的通貨膨脹環境。

And to that end, it might be helpful to know if carryover pricing, which I think usually declines year-over-year, if that might also be tracking stronger and what your outlook is for incentive spending going forward maybe in light of some of the comments you made earlier on the call about inventories and order bank, et cetera.

為此，了解結轉定價（我認為結轉定價通常會逐年下降）是否也可能走強以及您對未來激勵支出的前景可能會有所幫助，也許考慮到一些因素您之前在電話會議上發表的有關庫存和訂單銀行等的評論。

Yes.

是的。

That's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

I think we've been working and unpacking this, as you'd expect.

我想我們一直在努力並解開這個問題，正如你所期望的那樣。

Well, it's a combination of all of the above, right?

嗯，它是以上所有內容的組合，對嗎？

We have strong products.

我們有強大的產品。

We see continued demand for those strong products.

我們看到對這些強大產品的持續需求。

Supply is well short of that.

供應遠不足。

It's allowed us to continue to keep the pricing strong and improve the pricing in the second quarter versus what we had expected.

這使我們能夠繼續保持強勁的定價，並在第二季度提高定價，高於我們的預期。

And I think as long as the -- you see this imbalance between supply and demand, you'll continue to have stronger pricing power, as we've seen through the first quarter and the second quarter.

我認為，只要你看到供需之間的這種不平衡，你就會繼續擁有更強的定價能力，正如我們在第一季和第二季所看到的那樣。

As we go through the year and we start to see supply and demand normalize, we'll see some of this pricing come off a little bit in the fourth quarter, and then we have to see how that runs through next year.

隨著這一年的過去，我們開始看到供需正常化，我們將看到第四季的價格會下降，然後我們必須看看明年的情況如何。

But given the strength of our product lineup and the demand we see, we expect to have a relatively strong pricing power for the foreseeable future.

但考慮到我們產品陣容的實力和我們看到的需求，我們預計在可預見的未來將擁有相對強大的定價能力。

Our next question will come from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

I wanted to get back to the investments in modernization and maybe frame that in the context of the -- a 2023 view you laid out at the Capital Markets Day.

我想回到現代化投資，也許可以將其置於您在資本市場日提出的 2023 年觀點的背景下。

Like how does that investment trend through those years as you think about your -- the margin targets you laid out?

例如，當您考慮您所設定的利潤目標時，這些年來的投資趨勢如何？

And is there an assumption that by the time you get to '23 or maybe a little bit later, there's a return on that investment such that it becomes a neutral or even positive to the margin?

是否有一個假設，當你到 23 歲或稍晚一點時，該投資會產生回報，使其利潤率變為中性甚至正值？

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

Of course, as we make our capital allocations and we make these investments, we expect that we're going to get a return on them.

當然，當我們進行資本配置和投資時，我們期望能夠獲得回報。

And that's all part of our walk-up into 2023 and the 8% margin.

這就是我們邁向 2023 年和 8% 利潤率的全部內容。

We're also continuing to work on cost reductions elsewhere, right?

我們還在其他地方繼續努力降低成本，對嗎？

These are investments that we're making in our new products with the launches and connectivity and IT.

這些是我們透過發布、連接和 IT 對新產品的投資。

We've got advertising in there for these launches and then, of course, customer experiences, as I talked about earlier.

正如我之前談到的，我們為這些產品發布了廣告，當然還有客戶體驗。

But we're also driving cost reductions elsewhere as we continue to improve the business towards that 8% margin in 2023.

但隨著我們繼續改善業務，在 2023 年實現 8% 的利潤率，我們也在推動其他方面的成本降低。

So we'll invest in certain areas.

所以我們會在某些領域進行投資。

We'll see costs go up in certain areas, but we should also see costs coming down in other areas, particularly material cost, et cetera.

我們會看到某些領域的成本上升，但我們也應該看到其他領域的成本下降，特別是材料成本等。

One particular area of modernization that doesn't -- I don't think get enough attention in where we're investing as a company is certainly $30 billion in electrification and the vertical integration of batteries and, of course, our investment in autonomy.

現代化的一個特定領域——我認為我們作為一家公司的投資領域沒有得到足夠的重視，這肯定是 300 億美元的電氣化和電池垂直整合，當然還有我們對自主性的投資。

I think you all know about where we're spending our money in the general categories.

我想你們都知道我們在一般類別中把錢花在哪裡。

But the one I really want to highlight is the very significant investment in our embedded electrical architecture upgrade.

但我真正想強調的是我們對嵌入式電氣架構升級的非常重大的投資。

This is really a significant move by Ford to not just invest in electrification but move those products to fully digital, updatable in all modules and go to a fully modern, zonal electric architecture.

這確實是福特的一項重大舉措，不僅投資於電氣化，而且將這些產品轉向完全數位化、所有模組均可更新，並轉向完全現代化的區域電動架構。

I'm not going to go through the details, but this is a very expensive transition but it will enable a whole new capability for the always-on experience than even today's connected vehicles like Mustang Mach-E.

我不打算詳細介紹，但這是一個非常昂貴的轉變，但它將為始終在線的體驗提供全新的功能，甚至比今天的野馬 Mach-E 等聯網車輛還要多。

And I want to highlight that because it often gets lost in the other categories of investment and modernization.

我想強調這一點，因為它經常在投資和現代化的其他類別中迷失。

Okay.

好的。

So just to clarify, so the EV spend is included in that bucket that you mentioned?

所以想澄清一下，電動車支出是否包含在您提到的桶中？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

So when we talk about upgrading our electric vehicles, it's much more fundamental than just the investment in the tooling and the engineering of the electric vehicle and its components and propulsion.

因此，當我們談論升級電動車時，它比電動車及其組件和推進系統的工具和工程投資更為重要。

It also includes a completely new approach to an embedded software and hardware system.

它還包括一種全新的嵌入式軟體和硬體系統方法。

Okay.

好的。

And just -- and going back to the order bank, which is clearly interesting, like that's -- it seems like an easier task, quite frankly, when you have great product like you do with the Bronco, the Mach-E and the Lightning, which are -- seem well received and also limited.

回到訂單庫，這顯然很有趣，坦白說，當你擁有像 Bronco、Mach-E 和 Lightning 這樣的出色產品時，這似乎是一項更容易的任務，這些似乎很受歡迎，但也很有限。

I guess what I'm wondering is, how are you going to sort of balance that with inventory as you sort of think about like an Edge or an Explorer in year 4 or 5 of its product life cycle?

我想我想知道的是，當你在產品生命週期的第 4 年或第 5 年考慮 Edge 或 Explorer 時，你將如何平衡庫存與庫存？

Like is the plan to still keep inventories of the older product or a more mature product tight such that you can still get some into the order bank?

就像計劃仍然保持舊產品或更成熟產品的庫存緊張一樣，以便您仍然可以將一些產品存入訂單庫？

Or are there other plans to keep that product fresh throughout the life cycle that can lead people to order?

或者是否有其他計劃使該產品在整個生命週期中保持新鮮，從而引導人們訂購？

Sure.

當然。

I mean we'll have ground stock for sure in dealers, and we obviously have to keep the vehicle fresh.

我的意思是，我們在經銷商處肯定會有庫存，而且我們顯然必須保持車輛新鮮。

More and more of that will be the digital freshness of the vehicle.

其中越來越多的將是車輛的數位新鮮度。

But I would say if you look at our 60-plus thousand unit order bank in North America, a lot of -- not all of those are Broncos and Mustang Mach-Es.

但我想說的是，如果你看看我們在北美的 60 多台訂單庫，你會發現很多——並非所有都是 Broncos 和 Mustang Mach-E。

The -- we're doing this for our whole brand.

我們正在為我們的整個品牌做這件事。

Our next question will come from the line of Philippe Houchois with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Philippe Houchois 和 Jefferies 的路線。

I've got 2 questions.

我有 2 個問題。

The first one, sorry, go back on these order bank and inventory levels.

第一個，抱歉，回到這些訂單庫和庫存水準。

To be honest, I'm a bit surprised you're talking about 50 to 60 days of inventory in the future because that's not much lower than what we've had in the past.

說實話，我有點驚訝你所說的未來 50 到 60 天的庫存，因為這並不比我們過去的庫存低多少。

And I would have thought the order bank would actually enable you to actually carry much less inventory, and we've seen the benefit of that to pricing.

我以為訂單庫實際上可以讓您實際攜帶更少的庫存，而且我們已經看到了這對定價的好處。

So I wonder if the 50, 60 days kind of the first step that you think you can do better in the future.

所以我想知道 50、60 天是否是你認為未來可以做得更好的第一步。

And along those lines and then maybe more on the Ford Credit side, but when I look at European car companies, they carry more finished products on their balance sheet, the core balance sheet, and then relatively less on the finco balance sheet through the dealer receivables they use as a proxy.

沿著這些思路，福特信貸方面可能會更多，但當我觀察歐洲汽車公司時，他們的資產負債表（核心資產負債表）上有更多的成品，然後透過經銷商在金融公司資產負債表上的成品相對較少他們用作代理的應收帳款。

Is the opposite in the U.S.?

美國的情況正好相反嗎？

And I'm just wondering, if you look at a situation where you go to more order banking for your production, if you end up carrying more inventory on your industrial balance sheet, which would increase your working capital requirement from an industrial standpoint.

我只是想知道，如果你考慮一下為生產進行更多訂單銀行的情況，如果你最終在工業資產負債表上持有更多庫存，從工業角度來看，這會增加你的營運資金需求。

That was my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

And the second one, if I can ask briefly on China.

第二個問題，我可以簡單問一下中國的情況嗎？

It seems like you're stalling a bit in China.

看來你們在中國有點停滯了。

And because you've localized a lot more of Lincoln, more profitable, you had big losses in consolidated side before.

因為你們已經在地化了更多的林肯汽車，利潤更高，所以你們之前在合併方面遭受了巨大的損失。

And I'm just wondering, can you comment maybe on what is happening generally in China?

我只是想知道，您能否評論一下中國正在發生的普遍情況？

Is -- there seems to be a concern about how the Chinese brands are making good progress.

人們似乎擔心中國品牌如何取得良好進展。

Some of the EVs launched by your competitors are not quite getting the love from customers that was expected.

競爭對手推出的一些電動車並沒有得到預期的顧客喜愛。

And I'm just wondering if you see a more difficult environment for -- in China for you in the balance of the year and to next year.

我只是想知道，在今年剩下的時間以及明年，您是否會看到中國的環境變得更加困難。

Yes.

是的。

So I'll take the working capital.

所以我會拿走營運資金。

Now the way we see the order bank helping us is we actually see it simplifying the industrial system because we'll know exactly what we're going to build.

現在，我們看到訂單銀行幫助我們的方式是，我們實際上看到它簡化了工業系統，因為我們確切地知道我們要建造什麼。

So we're actually working through that now and trying to use that to simplify and reduce things like working capital.

所以我們現在實際上正在解決這個問題，並嘗試用它來簡化和減少營運資金等事情。

So I think if anything, it would have the opposite impact.

所以我認為，如果有的話，它會產生相反的影響。

It would increase working capital.

它將增加營運資金。

We'd use it to drive down working capital.

我們會用它來降低營運資金。

Then on the days supply, what we've seen in the past is around a 75-days supply.

然後在供應天數上，我們過去看到的供應量是75天左右。

So 50 days, it's a 25-day reduction.

所以 50 天，相當於減少了 25 天。

So we do see that as substantial.

所以我們確實認為這很重要。

And of course, that will be different across the different vehicle lines.

當然，不同車型的情況會有所不同。

So we do see that as a substantial pullback in the days supply.

因此，我們確實認為這是日供應量的大幅回落。

And just remember, in Europe, just remembering Ford of Europe, the cross-border issue in Europe is not so small.

請記住，在歐洲，請記住歐洲的福特，歐洲的跨國問題並不小。

We have holding centers and lots of ways to manage the stock.

我們有持有中心和多種管理庫存的方法。

We don't plan to implement that system in the U.S. It evolved over time and we have one country.

我們不打算在美國實施這個系統。它隨著時間的推移而演變，我們只有一個國家。

So I think we can -- our intention is -- as John said, is not to handle it that way.

所以我認為我們可以——我們的意圖是——正如約翰所說，不是那樣處理它。

In China, the team has made tremendous progress from a $1.5 billion loss, hovering around breakeven now or slightly below that.

在中國，該團隊從 15 億美元的損失中取得了巨大進步，目前徘徊在盈虧平衡點或略低於平衡點。

And we're in a very important time for Ford in China.

對福特在中國來說，我們正處於一個非常重要的時刻。

Lincoln is now profitable, and we just localized those models.

林肯現在已經獲利了，我們只是將這些車型在地化了。

We only launched Lincoln in 2015.

我們2015年才推出林肯。

I was there.

我在那裡。

So it's a recent phenomenon.

所以這是最近才出現的現象。

And we're just about to launch a whole plethora of brand-new vehicles like we're doing in North America today.

我們即將推出大量全新車輛，就像我們今天在北美所做的那樣。

So we're on the eve of the Mustang Mach-E launch, localized.

我們正處於 Mustang Mach-E 本地化發布前夕。

And then we have all these new vehicles, the EVOS.

然後我們就有了所有這些新車，EVOS。

I can go on a long list.

我可以列出一個很長的清單。

And it will be just like what we're seeing in North America, full freshness, and that will play out over the next couple of years.

這將就像我們在北美看到的那樣，充滿新鮮感，並將在未來幾年內發揮作用。

So China is very important for our profit plans.

所以中國對於我們的獲利計畫非常重要。

I think the team has done a tremendous job in stabilizing our sales situation and improving our cost.

我認為團隊在穩定我們的銷售狀況和改善成本方面做了巨大的工作。

And now it's going to be a growth story in China.

現在這將成為中國的成長故事。

We're just commercializing and industrializing the vehicles as we speak.

正如我們所說，我們只是將車輛商業化和工業化。

And Mustang Mach-E is kind of the first major one.

Mustang Mach-E 是第一個主要產品。

And our final question for the day will come from the line of Dan Levy with Credit Suisse.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Dan Levy。

First, I wanted to just ask on the chip shortage.

首先，我想問一下晶片短缺的問題。

And I fully recognize the situation is very fluid and your crystal ball is as good as anyone else's.

我完全認識到情況非常不穩定，你的水晶球和其他人的一樣好。

But do you have a sense for how long it might take until you're no longer supply-constrained on production?

但您知道需要多長時間才能不再受到生產供應的限制嗎？

Is this something that's fully resolved, by your best guess, by early next year?

據您猜測，這個問題到明年初就能完全解決嗎？

Or do you think that this -- there might be still some supply constraint lasting much longer and deeper into 2022?

或者您認為，到 2022 年，可能仍然存在一些供應限制，持續時間更長、更深？

So just the baseline expectations around that.

所以只是圍繞這一點的基線期望。

Yes.

是的。

So Dan, yes, I mean -- I think my guess is as good as anybody's on this.

所以丹，是的，我的意思是——我認為我的猜測和任何人對此的猜測一樣好。

We do see the chip issue running through this year, and we could see it bleeding into the first part of next year.

我們確實看到晶片問題貫穿今年，並且可能會滲透到明年上半年。

But I think we won't really have a good feel for that until later in this year.

但我認為直到今年晚些時候我們才會真正對此有良好的感覺。

We know that -- as we've had discussions with the fab suppliers, they're telling us they're reallocating capital.

我們知道，正如我們與晶圓廠供應商討論的那樣，他們告訴我們他們正在重新分配資本。

They're increasing supply for automotive, et cetera.

他們正在增加汽車等領域的供應。

But I think this is one of those things where we need to see the relief coming through before we can really feel comfortable that we're out of the woods here.

但我認為這是我們需要看到緩解的事情之一，然後我們才能真正感到放心，我們已經擺脫了困境。

Great.

偉大的。

Understood.

明白了。

And second question is just on ICE versus BEV.

第二個問題是關於 ICE 與 BEV。

And clearly, you're deemphasizing ICE.

顯然，您低估了 ICE。

And presumably, that means the investment is coming down.

據推測，這意味著投資正在下降。

I assume that part of that $30 billion headline number you gave includes some reallocation from ICE to EV.

我假設您給出的 300 億美元總體數字中的一部分包括從 ICE 到 EV 的一些重新分配。

But I think we also know right now that -- and maybe this is just a function of the market, but ICE sales are extremely strong in the U.S. It could remain the case for a while.

但我認為我們現在也知道——也許這只是市場的一個功能，但美國的 ICE 銷售非常強勁，這種情況可能會持續一段時間。

So what should we expect on margin for ICE vehicles especially as some of that investment comes down?

那麼，特別是在部分投資下降的情況下，我們應該對內燃機汽車的利潤率有何預期？

Is it possible that the outgoing margin on some of the ICE vehicles actually increases and you could potentially run into a negative mix issue as we -- as you start to pivot from ICE to the BEV?

是否有可能某些 ICE 車輛的傳出利潤實際上會增加，並且當我們開始從 ICE 轉向 BEV 時，您可能會遇到負面的混合問題？

Yes.

是的。

It's a good question.

這是一個好問題。

Generally speaking, that certainly could happen.

一般來說，這肯定有可能發生。

We don't know how the demand will shift.

我們不知道需求將如何改變。

Obviously, our guess is 40% of our mix, 240-gigawatt capacity by 2030.

顯然，我們的猜測是到 2030 年佔混合容量的 40%，即 240 吉瓦容量。

So we're busy making all that happen, as you say.

所以正如你所說，我們正忙著讓這一切發生。

40% is a lot higher than today.

40%比今天高很多。

And I think we have -- well, I know we have the right strategy for the company.

我認為我們——嗯，我知道我們為公司製定了正確的策略。

But so much of this transition is going to depend on government support, infrastructure build-out.

但這種轉變很大程度取決於政府的支持和基礎建設。

And we need to be patient, and I think agility will become a very important skill for the company.

我們需要耐心，我認為敏捷性將成為公司的一項非常重要的技能。

So far, the first inning would imply that Ford is #1 in sports cars, Mustang.

到目前為止，第一局意味著福特在跑車野馬中排名第一。

We're #1 in vans with Transit.

我們在 Transit 的貨車方面排名第一。

We're #1 in pickups with F-150.

我們的 F-150 皮卡排名第一。

We're electrifying all 3 of those in the next 6 months.

我們將在接下來的 6 個月內讓所有這 3 個項目通電。

And so far, the demand is actually higher than we expected.

而且到目前為止，需求實際上比我們預期的要高。

So I don't know what's going to happen.

所以我不知道會發生什麼事。

We don't know what's going to happen.

我們不知道會發生什麼事。

The support in China, but especially in Europe, has accelerated the BEV adoption in those regions.

中國（尤其是歐洲）的支持加速了這些地區純電動車的採用。

But as you say, we get into the next phase of expansion with a lot more product offering and all that capital pointed at BEVs.

但正如你所說，我們進入了下一階段的擴張，提供了更多的產品，所有資本都指向了純電動車。

It's hard to say and it's hard to handicap the government's policy at a government level over time.

這很難說，也很難隨著時間的推移在政府層級阻礙政府的政策。

I think the most important thing isn't how much money we're spending because that's enough.

我認為最重要的不是我們花多少錢，因為這就夠了。

It is our agility and the kind of execution of our BEVs and our management of the profitability of those vehicles, and that's where we're putting our energy, the agility of our industrial system, our manufacturing, our focus on the profitability improvement and the vertical integration for key electric components and making our vehicles different and more competitive than others.

這是我們的敏捷性和純電動車的執行力，以及我們對這些車輛盈利能力的管理，這就是我們投入精力、我們工業系統的敏捷性、我們的製造、我們對盈利能力提高和關鍵電氣部件的垂直整合，使我們的車輛與眾不同，比其他車輛更具競爭力。

I know it's a very general answer, but I don't think we know enough to answer your question.

我知道這是一個非常籠統的答案，但我認為我們的知識不足以回答您的問題。

Understood.

明白了。

That's helpful nevertheless.

儘管如此，這還是有幫助的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And with that, this concludes the Ford Motor Company's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

福特汽車公司 2021 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。

We'd like to thank you for your participation.

我們衷心感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。