福特汽車 (F) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Holly, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome you to today's Ford Motor Company First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天。我的名字是霍莉，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎您參加今天的福特汽車公司 2021 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，今天的通話正在錄音中。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Director of Investor Relations, Lynn Antipas Tyson. Lynn?

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給投資者關係總監 Lynn Antipas Tyson。林恩？

Thank you, Holly. Welcome, everyone, to Ford Motor Company's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Presenting today are Jim Farley, our President and CEO; and John Lawler, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit. Jim will make some opening comments, John will talk about our first quarter results and guidance and then we'll turn to Q&A.

謝謝你，霍莉。歡迎大家參加福特汽車公司 2021 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天的演講嘉賓是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Farley；和我們的首席財務官 John Lawler。 Ford Credit 首席執行官 Marion Harris 也加入了我們的問答環節。吉姆將發表一些開場評論，約翰將談論我們的第一季度業績和指導，然後我們將轉向問答。

Today's discussion will include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck, which can be found along with the rest of our earnings materials at shareholder.ford.com.

今天的討論將包括一些非 GAAP 參考。這些與我們收益甲板附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則措施相一致，可在股東.ford.com 上與我們的其他收益材料一起找到。

Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Slide 24. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis and product mix is volume weighted.

今天的討論包括關於我們預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與所述結果不同。可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素包含在幻燈片 24 中。除非另有說明，否則所有比較都是同比。公司息稅前利潤、每股收益和自由現金流量是經過調整的，產品組合是數量加權的。

A quick update on our upcoming IR events. I am very pleased to announce that we will hold our Capital Markets Day on Wednesday, May 26. The webcast will open at 9:15 a.m., and we will start promptly at 9:30 Eastern and end roughly at noon. We will share more information about the meeting later on this call, and invitations will be sent out shortly. On Monday, May 3, Wells Fargo will host a fireside chat with John Lawler and Kumar Galhotra, President, Americas & International Market Group. And on June 17, Deutsche Bank will host a virtual fireside chat with Jim Farley.

我們即將舉行的 IR 活動的快速更新。我很高興地宣布，我們將於 5 月 26 日星期三舉行資本市場日。網絡直播將於上午 9:15 開始，我們將在東部時間 9:30 準時開始，大約在中午結束。我們將在本次電話會議稍後分享有關會議的更多信息，並很快發出邀請。 5 月 3 日星期一，富國銀行將與 John Lawler 和美洲和國際市場集團總裁 Kumar Galhotra 舉行爐邊談話。 6 月 17 日，德意志銀行將與 Jim Farley 進行虛擬爐邊聊天。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Lynn. Hello, everyone. Thanks so much for joining us today. Our first quarter of the year really defies an easy explanation or a pity soundbite. But if I had to sum it up one way, it would be this: we're executing on our plan, and I'm excited to say Ford is becoming a stronger, more resilient company that can deliver under pressure, manage risks and seize opportunities, all while generating consistent returns for our stakeholders.

謝謝，林恩。大家好。非常感謝您今天加入我們。我們今年的第一季度真的無法簡單解釋或遺憾的聲音片段。但如果我必須用一種方式來總結，那就是：我們正在執行我們的計劃，我很高興地說福特正在成為一家更強大、更有彈性的公司，可以在壓力下交付、管理風險並抓住機會，同時為我們的利益相關者帶來持續的回報。

In the quarter, we earned $4.8 billion in adjusted EBIT. It's our best quarterly adjusted EBIT ever. And we achieved these results in the midst of a persistent global pandemic and an unprecedented supply shock tied to the global semiconductor shortage. We mobilized a global team, as we always do in these times of crisis, and we rapidly adjusted to the realities that we were seeing. Our team very skillfully navigated the supply constraints through sharp yield management and a relentless focus on turning around our automotive operations. That means improving our launch performance, improving our quality, enhancing our brand, strengthening our customer relationships and improving our go-to-market execution. And Ford Credit, which, in our view, is the best automotive finance captive in the industry, also delivered an outstanding quarter.

本季度，我們的調整後息稅前利潤為 48 億美元。這是我們有史以來最好的季度調整息稅前利潤。我們在持續的全球大流行和與全球半導體短缺相關的前所未有的供應衝擊中取得了這些成果。我們動員了一支全球團隊，就像我們在這些危機時期所做的那樣，我們迅速適應了我們所看到的現實。我們的團隊通過敏銳的產量管理和不懈地專注於扭轉我們的汽車業務，非常熟練地駕馭了供應限制。這意味著提高我們的發佈業績、提高我們的質量、提升我們的品牌、加強我們的客戶關係並改善我們的上市執行。在我們看來，福特信貸是業內最好的汽車金融公司，也實現了出色的季度業績。

Aided by higher prices, our results benefited from the industry-wide imbalance of supply and demand given the semiconductor shortage. However, we also delivered improvements that will persist over time, including our global redesign in our overseas operations, which contribute to the largest swing in year-over-year profitability for those operations that we've seen; the benefit of our incredibly fresh portfolio refresh, which lowers the average showroom age now in the U.S. to just 3 years; and of course, we made progress on cost across the business. As we share with you today, there are more white-water moments ahead for us that we have to navigate. The semiconductor shortage and the impact to production will get worse before it gets better. In fact, we believe our second quarter will be the trough for this year. We have work to do to get our industry footprint back to firing on all cylinders or maybe should I say fully charged.

由於價格上漲，我們的業績受益於半導體短缺導致的全行業供需失衡。但是，我們還實現了持續改進，包括我們對海外業務的全球重新設計，這有助於我們看到這些業務的同比盈利能力出現最大的波動；我們令人難以置信的全新產品組合更新帶來的好處，這將美國現在的平均陳列室年齡降低到僅 3 年；當然，我們在整個業務的成本方面取得了進展。正如我們今天與您分享的那樣，我們必鬚麵對更多的白水時刻。半導體短缺和對生產的影響在好轉之前會變得更糟。事實上，我們相信我們的第二季度將是今年的低谷。我們有工作要做，以使我們的行業足跡恢復到全力以赴，或者我應該說完全充電。

Overall, though, I'm proud of the progress we made as a team as our underlying strength of Ford improves, enhances our cash flow, access to capital gives us financial flexibility to modernize and disrupt our business while investing in growth. We are very intentional about this because these are the catalyst factors that will transform Ford into a far more vibrant company that will deliver not only our iconic must-have products but also, and I would argue more importantly, an always on, ever-improving customer experience for both our retail and commercial customers. So let me share a few milestones from the quarter.

不過，總的來說，我為我們作為一個團隊所取得的進步感到自豪，因為我們福特的潛在實力得到了改善，增強了我們的現金流，獲得資金使我們能夠在投資增長的同時實現現代化和顛覆我們的業務的財務靈活性。我們對此非常刻意，因為這些催化劑因素將使福特成為一家更有活力的公司，不僅將提供我們標誌性的必備產品，而且我認為更重要的是，一個永遠在線、不斷改進的公司為我們的零售和商業客戶提供客戶體驗。因此，讓我分享本季度的幾個里程碑。

Turning around auto. Over the past 4 years, our overseas markets lost a total of $5.8 billion in EBIT. This quarter, the regions delivered roughly $500 million of EBIT. That's a $1 billion improvement year-over-year. Let's look at those must-have services and products. Well, it starts with the new F-150, which gained share and also gained share of revenue, and it had new innovations like Pro Power Onboard, which showed again that we understand at Ford these truck customers better than anyone. And the Bronco Sport is off to a fast start, bringing 60% new customers to our brand. The new Mustang Mach-E is proving to be a hit with customers just a few days on lot with very strong demand in North America, now in Europe and coming to China. And it's also bringing in new customers to the brand, almost 70%. And we still have the Big Bronco, the 2- and the 4-door with an incredible order bank, the F-150 Electric and the E-Transit. And we have some surprises for you as well. Stay tuned.

自動掉頭。在過去 4 年中，我們的海外市場共損失了 58 億美元的息稅前利潤。本季度，這些地區的息稅前利潤約為 5 億美元。同比增長 10 億美元。讓我們看看那些必備的服務和產品。嗯，它從新的 F-150 開始，它獲得了份額，也獲得了收入份額，它有新的創新，比如 Pro Power Onboard，這再次表明我們在福特比任何人都更了解這些卡車客戶。 Bronco Sport 起步較快，為我們的品牌帶來了 60% 的新客戶。事實證明，新的 Mustang Mach-E 僅僅幾天就受到了客戶的歡迎，北美的需求非常旺盛，現在在歐洲並進入中國。它還為該品牌帶來了近 70% 的新客戶。我們仍然擁有 Big Bronco、2 門和 4 門以及令人難以置信的訂單庫、F-150 Electric 和 E-Transit。我們也為您準備了一些驚喜。敬請關注。

Just as we are in the early stages of our electric vehicle plans, we are only scratching the surface of our customers benefiting from our fully connected vehicles. We have successfully deployed our first major over-the-air update -- software updates to hundreds of thousands of customers for Mach-E and F-150. And this pace will only accelerate in the next several years, making our vehicles better over time. Later this year, for example, we will offer our very first tested -- fully-tested Ford BlueCruise hands-free driving technology, which will be delivered over-the-air to Mustang E and F-150 customers. And by 2028, we expect to have more than 33 million over-the-air updated, capable vehicles on the road. Now this installed base gives Ford a significant opportunity to develop products and, for us, very exciting new services that will transform the way we deliver products to our customers. They'll make significant improvements to our customers' experience and drive quality of our vehicles.

就像我們處於電動汽車計劃的早期階段一樣，我們只是從我們的全聯網汽車中受益的客戶的皮毛。我們已經成功地部署了我們的第一個重大無線更新——為 Mach-E 和 F-150 的數十萬客戶提供軟件更新。而這個速度只會在未來幾年內加快，隨著時間的推移，我們的車輛會變得更好。例如，今年晚些時候，我們將提供我們第一個經過全面測試的福特 BlueCruise 免提駕駛技術，該技術將通過無線方式交付給 Mustang E 和 F-150 客戶。到 2028 年，我們預計將有超過 3300 萬輛空中更新的、有能力的車輛上路。現在，這個安裝基礎為福特提供了開發產品的重要機會，對我們來說，非常令人興奮的新服務將改變我們向客戶提供產品的方式。他們將顯著改善我們客戶的體驗和我們車輛的駕駛質量。

And we're on track to lead the electric revolution in areas of Ford's strength. For example, we announced we're investing $1 billion in the new electric vehicle manufacturing center in Germany where, by 2023, just a few years from now, we'll be assembling our very first high-volume, all-electric passenger car for Europe. A year later, in 2024, all Ford Europe commercial vehicles will be zero emissions capable. And by 2030, all Ford European passenger cars will be all-electric. Now these investments are part -- just part of our $22 billion commitment to lead the electric revolution in areas that we're strong. And yesterday, we announced a very important new development. We have formed a new global Battery Center of Excellence called Ford Ion Park, which will accelerate our research and development of battery as well as battery cell technology, including future battery manufacturing. This only starts to hint at our electric vehicle ambitions. There is so much more to come.

我們正在引領福特優勢領域的電動革命。例如，我們宣布將投資 10 億美元在德國新建電動汽車製造中心，到 2023 年，也就是幾年後，我們將在該中心組裝我們的首款大批量全電動乘用車，用於歐洲。一年後的 2024 年，所有福特歐洲商用車都將實現零排放。到 2030 年，所有福特歐洲乘用車都將是全電動的。現在，這些投資是一部分——只是我們 220 億美元承諾在我們強大的領域引領電力革命的一部分。昨天，我們宣布了一項非常重要的新進展。我們已經成立了一個新的全球電池卓越中心，名為福特離子公園，這將加速我們對電池和電池技術的研發，包括未來的電池製造。這只是開始暗示我們的電動汽車野心。還有很多事情要做。

Now before I turn it over to John, let me share a bit more about where we and the industry are in semiconductors. When we initially gave guidance in February, we expected that the semiconductor supply chains would remain constrained through the second quarter. And we have an opportunity to begin recovering lost volumes in the second half. It's kind of played out similar to that with one big exception: the industry faced another setback on March 19 when Renesas, a leading semiconductor supplier who manufactures about 2/3 of all chips in the auto industry, experienced a significant fire at their Naka 3 facility. Multiple Tier 1s who supply global OEMs source their chips from this facility, including 9 Tier 1s that supply us at Ford. Now Renesas expects it will return to full capacity in July, and they're making great progress.

現在，在我把它交給約翰之前，讓我再多分享一些關於我們和這個行業在半導體方面的情況。當我們在 2 月份最初給出指導時，我們預計半導體供應鏈將在第二季度繼續受到限制。我們有機會在下半年開始恢復損失的交易量。它的上演有點類似，但有一個很大的例外：3 月 19 日，當製造汽車行業約 2/3 芯片的領先半導體供應商瑞薩電子在其 Naka 3 上遭遇重大火災時，該行業再次遭遇挫折設施。為全球 OEM 供應的多家一級供應商從該工廠採購其芯片，其中包括在福特為我們供應的 9 家一級供應商。現在瑞薩預計它將在 7 月恢復滿負荷運轉，而且他們正在取得很大進展。

While most of the chips for our modules for this facility are definitely dual-sourced, Ford and others are facing additional constraints, and we've yet to see significant new chip capacity come online for our industry. Estimates project the full recovery of the auto chip supply will stretch into fourth quarter of this year and possibly even into 2022, making industry volume recovery in the second half of this year even more challenging. As you can imagine, we are working this issue 24/7 and engaging with key political leaders and decision-makers globally as well as, of course, our supply chain.

雖然我們為該設施提供的模塊的大部分芯片肯定是雙源的，但福特和其他公司正面臨著額外的限制，而且我們還沒有看到我們行業的大量新芯片產能上線。預計汽車芯片供應的全面恢復將持續到今年第四季度，甚至可能持續到 2022 年，這使得今年下半年的行業量恢復更具挑戰性。您可以想像，我們正在 24/7 全天候處理這個問題，並與全球主要政治領導人和決策者以及我們的供應鏈進行接觸。

Ford relationship with the new Biden Administration rests on our distinctive profile: that we assemble more vehicles and have more U.S. order jobs than any other competitor. It's also well recognized that Ford sided with California on greenhouse gas regulations when that wasn't the easy choice to make. So from COVID PPE to the current semiconductor crisis, the batteries for EVs, this past year has vividly spotlighted the importance of improving domestic supply chain for both our industry and our country. Now we found the White House and the new Cabinet engaging, accessible and responsive. We look forward to continued close working relationship as the country formulate policies to facilitate the transformation from ICE to BEV and finally address infrastructure deficits.

福特與新拜登政府的關係建立在我們獨特的形象之上：我們組裝的車輛比任何其他競爭對手都多，在美國的訂單工作也更多。眾所周知，福特在溫室氣體法規方面站在加利福尼亞一邊，而這並不是一個容易做出的選擇。因此，從 COVID PPE 到當前的半導體危機，電動汽車的電池，過去一年生動地突出了改善國內供應鏈對我們行業和國家的重要性。現在，我們發現白宮和新內閣具有吸引力、可及性和響應性。我們期待在該國製定政策以促進從 ICE 向 BEV 轉型並最終解決基礎設施短缺問題時，繼續保持密切的合作關係。

As you would expect, we're committed to learn from this crisis to be a much stronger company. We're taking this opportunity to revamp our supply chain to eliminate vulnerabilities down the road. This is especially relevant as we consider not only semiconductors but also battery cells and other commodities critical to our modernization and transformation. We're also learning, as we operate in this extraordinary low-stock, high-demand environment in the U.S. and around the world, that we will see a leaner, more efficient company in the future. We're getting more fit.

如您所料，我們致力於從這場危機中吸取教訓，成為一家更強大的公司。我們藉此機會改造我們的供應鏈，以消除未來的漏洞。這一點尤其重要，因為我們不僅考慮半導體，還考慮對我們的現代化和轉型至關重要的電池和其他商品。我們也在學習，因為我們在美國和世界各地這種非同尋常的低庫存、高需求環境中運營，我們將在未來看到一家更精簡、更高效的公司。我們越來越健康了。

And with that, I'd like to turn it over to John.

有了這個，我想把它交給約翰。

Thank you, Jim. So heading into 2021, the run rate of our business was on track to deliver $8 billion to $9 billion in adjusted EBIT. And that's up about 33% versus 2019. And that, of course, is all before the impact of the global semiconductor shortage. So our confidence in the stronger run rate is built on the durable changes that we've made to improve our returns, improve our cash flow and, of course, provides us financial flexibility to invest in growth. And these improvements were embedded in our original 2021 outlook.

謝謝你，吉姆。因此，進入 2021 年，我們的業務運行率有望實現 80 億至 90 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤。這與 2019 年相比增長了約 33%。當然，這一切都在全球半導體短缺的影響之前。因此，我們對更高運行率的信心是建立在我們為提高回報、改善現金流而做出的持久改變的基礎上的，當然，這也為我們提供了投資增長的財務靈活性。這些改進嵌入在我們最初的 2021 年展望中。

So for example, after shifting an overwhelming majority of our capital to our franchise strengths like trucks and utilities, we refreshed our product portfolio, we lowered our average showroom age and shifted our mix to our higher-margin vehicles. And as a result, relative to 2019, the increase in our average transaction prices in the U.S. was $1,900 more per unit than the industry average. Now also, the tough choices we made to redesign our overseas businesses had started to turn the tide. Rationalizing manufacturing footprints, strengthening the product portfolios, focusing relentlessly on cost and investing in areas of growth and strength are now producing results.

因此，例如，在將絕大多數資本轉移到卡車和公用事業等特許經營優勢之後，我們更新了產品組合，降低了平均陳列室年齡，並將我們的組合轉移到利潤率更高的車輛上。因此，相對於 2019 年，我們在美國的平均交易價格比行業平均水平高出 1,900 美元。現在，我們為重新設計海外業務所做的艱難選擇也開始扭轉局面。合理化製造足跡、加強產品組合、不懈地關注成本並投資於增長和實力領域，現在正在產生成果。

Another item we've also talked to you about is warranty. Over the last 3 years, our warranty expense has increased by more than $2 billion. Now we've addressed this issue through changes in design, how we inspect vehicles, how we work with suppliers on quality and now, how we're using connected data to identify issues early in the process and drive quality improvements. Now this quarter, we delivered a $400 million improvement in warranty expense year-over-year, and we're intent on accelerating this positive progress. So these are just a few, 3, of the many examples of how the trajectory of our business is changing and what gave us the confidence when we set our original targets for 2021.

我們還與您討論過的另一項是保修。在過去 3 年中，我們的保修費用增加了超過 20 億美元。現在，我們已經通過改變設計、檢查車輛、與供應商合作質量以及現在如何使用連接數據在流程早期發現問題並推動質量改進來解決這個問題。現在本季度，我們的保修費用同比減少了 4 億美元，我們打算加快這一積極進展。因此，這些只是我們業務軌跡如何變化的眾多示例中的一小部分，以及在我們設定 2021 年的原始目標時是什麼給了我們信心。

So now let me turn to this quarter. Wholesale declined 6% and, in most cases, that's due to the chip constraints. Now despite the declines in wholesales, revenue grew 6% aided by higher net pricing and favorable mix. We delivered $4.8 billion in adjusted EBIT and an adjusted EBIT margin of 13.3%. And as expected, adjusted EBIT, including an investment gain of $900 million from a Rivian funding round that they had in January, so that was included as well. And then adjusted free cash flow was negative $400 million.

所以現在讓我談談這個季度。批發量下降了 6%，在大多數情況下，這是由於芯片限制。現在，儘管批發量下降，但得益於更高的淨定價和有利的組合，收入增長了 6%。我們實現了 48 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤和 13.3% 的調整後息稅前利潤率。正如預期的那樣，調整後的息稅前利潤，包括他們在 1 月份的 Rivian 一輪融資中獲得的 9 億美元的投資收益，因此也包括在內。然後調整後的自由現金流為負 4 億美元。

The global semiconductor shortage reduced our planned Q1 volume by about 17% or 200,000 units, and that's consistent with the 10% to 20% range of expected losses that we shared with you in February. In Q1, we fully offset the EBIT impact of the lost volume. So we reduced incentives as part of the industry-wide response to tighten dealer inventories, and that's especially in North America. We optimized the mix of our production to build our higher-margin, higher-demand vehicles. We also reduced our structural cost in areas including manufacturing and advertising. We improved results in our FCSD parts business and in our joint ventures, and we benefited from strong used vehicle prices in Ford Credit as customers and dealers drove up demand for our used vehicles as new vehicle supply sell. So some of these improvements, like the lower manufacturing costs and the robust pricing improvement, we do expect those to moderate as the industry returns to full production and dealer inventories rebound.

全球半導體短缺使我們計劃的第一季度銷量減少了約 17% 或 200,000 件，這與我們在 2 月份與您分享的 10% 至 20% 的預期損失範圍一致。在第一季度，我們完全抵消了銷量損失的 EBIT 影響。因此，我們減少了激勵措施，作為全行業應對經銷商庫存收緊的一部分，尤其是在北美。我們優化了我們的生產組合，以製造我們更高利潤、更高需求的汽車。我們還降低了製造和廣告等領域的結構成本。我們改善了我們的 FCSD 零部件業務和我們的合資企業的業績，我們受益於福特信貸強勁的二手車價格，因為客戶和經銷商隨著新車供應的銷售推高了對我們二手車的需求。因此，其中一些改進，例如較低的製造成本和強勁的定價改進，我們確實預計隨著行業恢復全面生產和經銷商庫存反彈，這些改進將會放緩。

Now our adjusted free cash flow in the quarter of negative $400 million was significantly lower than our $4.8 billion of adjusted EBIT. Now there's 3 main factors that contributed to this gap. First, our gain on Rivian was noncash. Second, in the quarter, we grew inventory by $2.2 billion. Now this includes parts for vehicles we could not build due to the lack of chips, but it also included approximately 22,000 vehicles, and those are primarily in North America, that are awaiting installation of chip-related components. And so some of this inventory impact, though, was offset by a growth in payables. And third is timing differences. Now this primarily relates to the reserves for customer allowances for incentives and warranty. This reserve -- that reserve fell by $1.6 billion in the quarter. The vehicle incentive portion is based on the number of vehicles awaiting sale and dealer inventory and the expected incentive per unit, and both of those fell in the quarter due to the supply disruption.

現在，我們在本季度調整後的自由現金流為負 4 億美元，大大低於我們調整後的 48 億美元的息稅前利潤。現在有 3 個主要因素導致了這種差距。首先，我們對 Rivian 的收益是非現金的。其次，在本季度，我們的庫存增加了 22 億美元。現在，這包括我們因缺少芯片而無法製造的汽車零件，但也包括大約 22,000 輛汽車，這些汽車主要位於北美，正在等待安裝芯片相關組件。因此，一些庫存影響被應付賬款的增長所抵消。第三是時間差異。現在，這主要涉及客戶獎勵和保修津貼的準備金。這一儲備——該儲備在本季度減少了 16 億美元。車輛獎勵部分基於等待銷售的車輛數量和經銷商庫存以及每單位的預期獎勵，由於供應中斷，這兩項在本季度均有所下降。

Now we do expect the working capital and the timing differences to normalize as the semiconductor supply is restored, as dealer stocks rebound and incentives return to more normal levels. And we believe this process will take several quarters and will most likely extend into 2022.

現在我們確實預計隨著半導體供應的恢復、經銷商庫存反彈和激勵措施恢復到更正常的水平，營運資金和時間差異將正常化。我們相信這個過程將持續幾個季度，並且很可能會延續到 2022 年。

Our strong balance sheet provides considerable flexibility to navigate times of stress, such as this chip shortage, while also investing in growth. So we ended the quarter with over $31 billion of cash and $47 billion of liquidity, which includes our recent $2.3 billion convertible issuance. We will continue to be very proactive in managing our capital structure.

我們強大的資產負債表提供了相當大的靈活性來應對壓力時期，例如芯片短缺，同時也投資於增長。因此，我們在本季度結束時擁有超過 310 億美元的現金和 470 億美元的流動性，其中包括我們最近 23 億美元的可轉換債券。我們將繼續非常積極地管理我們的資本結構。

Overall, our business units did a fantastic job prioritizing newly-launched products, making sure that we process customer orders in high-margin vehicles quickly, and that was all in a supply-constrained environment. And the strong customer response to Mach-E affirms our choice to shift more capital to BEVs, including investments to in-source key elements of the value chain necessary for competitive and sustainable profitability.

總體而言，我們的業務部門在優先考慮新推出的產品方面做得非常出色，確保我們能夠快速處理高利潤車輛的客戶訂單，而這一切都是在供應受限的環境中進行的。客戶對 Mach-E 的強烈反應肯定了我們選擇將更多資本轉移到 BEV 的選擇，包括投資於內購價值鏈的關鍵要素，以實現競爭性和可持續盈利能力。

So let me share a few of the highlights from the quarter. In North America, wholesales declined 14%, while revenue increased 5%. Now revenue was aided by strong net pricing and favorable mix, robust customer demand for our new product portfolio, tight, industry-wide inventories and favorable cost performance on a year-over-year basis, and that included warranty. All of that helped us deliver $2.9 billion of EBIT and a margin of 12.8%, which was North America's highest margin in 5 years.

因此，讓我分享本季度的一些亮點。在北美，批發業務下降了 14%，而收入增長了 5%。現在，收入得益於強勁的淨定價和有利的組合、客戶對我們新產品組合的強勁需求、行業範圍內的緊張庫存以及同比有利的成本績效，其中包括保修。所有這些幫助我們實現了 29 億美元的息稅前利潤和 12.8% 的利潤率，這是北美 5 年來的最高利潤率。

In South America, wholesales and revenue declined 70% and 40%, respectively, and that reflects the exit of unprofitable products. The renewed focus on strengths like Ranger, Transit and key imports drove our best quarterly EBIT since 2013 and our sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement.

在南美，批發和收入分別下降了 70% 和 40%，這反映了無利可圖產品的退出。對 Ranger、Transit 和主要進口等優勢的重新關注推動了我們自 2013 年以來最好的季度息稅前利潤，以及我們連續第六個季度的同比增長。

In Europe, wholesales declined 4% as revenue grew 13% aided by improved product mix led by our commercial vehicles and net pricing. These actions, together with our continued focus on cost, delivered $341 million in EBIT with a margin of 4.8%.

在歐洲，由於我們的商用車和淨定價導致的產品組合改善，收入增長了 13%，批發量下降了 4%。這些行動，加上我們對成本的持續關注，帶來了 3.41 億美元的息稅前利潤，利潤率為 4.8%。

In China, China delivered strong growth in both wholesale and revenue. EBIT was about breakeven, which marked the fourth consecutive quarter of improvement, supported by strength in Lincoln, Ford near-premium utilities and commercial vehicles. In fact, Lincoln now produces 90% of its products locally, was profitable, posting its best-ever Q1 retail sales, nearly doubling its share on a year-over-year basis. And commercial vehicle sales were also strong and now comprised 48% of Ford's total China sales.

在中國，中國的批發和收入均實現了強勁增長。息稅前利潤接近盈虧平衡，這標誌著連續第四個季度有所改善，這得益於林肯、福特近乎高檔的公用事業和商用車的實力。事實上，林肯現在 90% 的產品在本地生產，盈利，第一季度的零售額創下歷史新高，同比增長近一倍。商用車銷量也很強勁，目前佔福特中國總銷量的 48%。

And IMG grew both wholesales and revenue as they focused on their franchise strengths of Ranger and Everest. And IMG achieved its best quarterly EBIT, reflecting strong cost performance, net pricing and favorable exchange. All markets in IMG were profitable except for India. And IMG also committed to invest $1 billion to expand Ranger capacity in our South Africa export hub to meet customer demand in more than 100 global markets.

由於 IMG 專注於 Ranger 和 Everest 的特許經營優勢，因此他們的批發量和收入均有所增長。 IMG 取得了最好的季度息稅前利潤，反映了強勁的成本績效、淨定價和有利的匯率。除印度外，IMG 的所有市場都盈利。 IMG 還承諾投資 10 億美元來擴大我們在南非出口中心的 Ranger 產能，以滿足全球 100 多個市場的客戶需求。

In Mobility, our AV business continues to invest in refining its go-to-market strategy. It added a new 140,000 square foot command center in Miami and, along with Argo AI, is simulating ride-hail and delivery across 6 cities. And I'd be remiss not to highlight the continued strength of our Ford Credit business, which delivered $1 billion in EBT in the quarter.

在 Mobility 方面，我們的 AV 業務繼續投資以完善其進入市場的戰略。它在邁阿密增加了一個 140,000 平方英尺的新指揮中心，並與 Argo AI 一起模擬 6 個城市的叫車和送貨。我不能不強調我們福特信貸業務的持續實力，該業務在本季度實現了 10 億美元的 EBT。

Now turning to guidance. As we entered 2021, we were among the first to identify the potential for a 10% to 20% adverse impact in volume in the first half of the year due to the growing chip constraints. We said at that time that this risk had the potential to reduce our full year adjusted EBIT by $1 billion to $2.5 billion. That would take us off our original target of $8 billion to $9 billion in adjusted EBIT. So we've updated our outlook to include the expanded impact of the global chip shortage, and that's largely driven by the Renesas fire. While the situation is a significant headwind, we have definitive actions to address a full range of potential outcomes. So we now expect to lose about 50% of our planned Q2 production, an increase from the 17% loss in Q1, making Q2 the trough for our performance this year.

現在轉向指導。當我們進入 2021 年時，由於芯片限制的增加，我們率先發現上半年的銷量可能會受到 10% 至 20% 的不利影響。我們當時表示，這種風險有可能使我們全年調整後的息稅前利潤減少 10 億美元至 25 億美元。這將使我們擺脫最初的 80 億至 90 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤目標。因此，我們更新了我們的展望，將全球芯片短缺的擴大影響包括在內，這在很大程度上是由瑞薩大火推動的。雖然這種情況是一個重大的逆風，但我們有明確的行動來解決各種潛在結果。因此，我們現在預計第二季度計劃產量將損失約 50%，高於第一季度 17% 的損失，使第二季度成為我們今年業績的低谷。

Now while we expect the flow of chips from Renesas to be restored in July, we and many in the industry now believe the global shortage may not be fully resolved until 2022. So our outlook now assumes we lose roughly 10% of planned second half production. In total, we believe the shortage for the year will drive a loss of about 1.1 million wholesale units, which translates to about $2.5 billion EBIT. And that headwind in EBIT is net of recovery actions for the year. Now this EBIT impact was the high end of the range we gave in February and brings our full year adjusted EBIT guidance range to between $5.5 billion and $6.5 billion.

現在，雖然我們預計瑞薩的芯片供應將在 7 月恢復，但我們和業內許多人現在認為，全球短缺可能要到 2022 年才能完全解決。因此，我們現在的展望假設我們將損失大約 10% 的計劃下半年生產.總的來說，我們認為今年的短缺將導致約 110 萬個批發單位的損失，這相當於約 25 億美元的息稅前利潤。息稅前利潤的逆風是扣除今年的複蘇行動。現在，這種 EBIT 影響是我們在 2 月份給出的範圍的高端，並使我們全年調整後的 EBIT 指導範圍達到 55 億美元至 65 億美元之間。

And it's very important to highlight that even though our expected volume loss for the year has more than doubled, we have worked to contain EBIT impact to the high end of our original range. So we now also expect full year adjusted free cash flow of $500 million to $1.5 billion, and this includes a $3 billion adverse impact from semiconductors. The semiconductor impact on cash is $500 million worse than the impact on EBIT due to timing differences and working capital impacts that will recover once our run rate of production is fully restored, dealer stocks return to more normal levels and incentives rebound.

非常重要的是要強調，儘管我們今年的預期銷量損失增加了一倍以上，但我們一直在努力將息稅前利潤的影響控制在原始範圍的高端。因此，我們現在還預計全年調整後的自由現金流為 5 億至 15 億美元，其中包括來自半導體的 30 億美元的不利影響。半導體對現金的影響比對 EBIT 的影響差 5 億美元，這是由於時間差異和營運資金影響，一旦我們的生產運行率完全恢復、經銷商庫存恢復到更正常的水平並且激勵措施反彈，這些影響將恢復。

Our Q2 free cash flow will be significantly negative, and that's despite additional Ford Credit distributions driven by our adoption of the updated tax accounting standard, which reduces our tax allocation of Ford Credit and supports additional Ford Credit distributions. However, we expect our cash and liquidity to remain healthy throughout the year, providing us with considerable flexibility to manage the present situation. And this supports our growing confidence in the resilience of our business and our ability to effectively navigate the challenge just as we navigated the COVID-related production disruptions last year.

我們的第二季度自由現金流將顯著為負，儘管我們採用更新的稅務會計標準推動了額外的福特信貸分配，這減少了我們對福特信貸的稅收分配並支持額外的福特信貸分配。然而，我們預計我們的現金和流動性將在全年保持健康，為我們提供相當大的靈活性來管理當前的情況。這支持了我們對業務彈性和有效應對挑戰的能力日益增強的信心，就像我們去年應對與 COVID 相關的生產中斷一樣。

So now I'd like to turn it back to Jim for a few comments about the Capital Markets Day.

所以現在我想把它轉回給吉姆關於資本市場日的一些評論。

Thanks, John. Before we turn it over to questions, I want to reiterate how proud I am of this Ford team for its commitment to deliver on our plan to fix automotive, to modernize the company and to find ways to disrupt our business and the traditional auto industry to create value that will be rewarded -- that will reward our stakeholders.

謝謝，約翰。在我們提出問題之前，我想重申我對福特團隊的自豪，因為他們致力於實現我們修復汽車的計劃，使公司現代化，並想方設法破壞我們的業務和傳統汽車行業創造將得到回報的價值——這將回報我們的利益相關者。

On May 26, we will hold a virtual presentation for an investment community where we plan to deep dive into our plan, as Lynn said. We're going to cover how we're going to lead the electric vehicle revolution in areas that we're strong at Ford. Number two, we're going to build out our industry-leading commercial vehicle business with products but as well services that lead to growth and new revenue streams, and we're going to leverage our connected vehicles to transform the customer experience and truly shift Ford from a more traditional OEM to a company where the manufacture and sale of the vehicle is just the very first step in an ever-improving, always-on and far more rewarding customer experience.

正如 Lynn 所說，我們將在 5 月 26 日為一個投資社區舉行一次虛擬演示，我們計劃在其中深入研究我們的計劃。我們將介紹我們將如何在福特擅長的領域引領電動汽車革命。第二，我們將通過產品和服務來建立我們行業領先的商用車業務，從而帶來增長和新的收入來源，我們將利用我們的聯網車輛來改變客戶體驗並真正轉變福特從一家更傳統的原始設備製造商轉變為一家汽車製造和銷售只是不斷改進、始終在線和更有價值的客戶體驗的第一步。

I so look forward to speaking to all of you soon as we continue our effort to create a Ford that can compete and especially win in this exciting new era of our industry. So with that, let's start the Q&A.

我非常期待盡快與大家交談，因為我們將繼續努力打造能夠在我們行業這個激動人心的新時代競爭並尤其取勝的福特。因此，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is going to come from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Okay. Look, I wanted to just maybe get a little bit more clarification on the guidance. I think everybody understands that the underlying guidance ex the semiconductor shortage impact isn't really changing. And I don't think anyone would react to that at all, if it wasn't for how surprisingly strong Q1 was. You almost did $5 billion of EBIT, including the gain, and $4 billion excluding it. So the numbers, obviously, are going to be pretty low for the rest of the year.

好的。看，我只是想對指導進行更多的澄清。我認為每個人都明白，除半導體短缺影響之外的基本指導並沒有真正改變。如果不是因為第一季度的強勁表現，我認為根本不會有人對此做出反應。你幾乎做了 50 億美元的息稅前利潤，包括收益，以及 40 億美元，不包括它。因此，顯然，在今年剩下的時間裡，這個數字將非常低。

I guess my questions on this are, was there, first of all, an unusual gain on incentives for inventory at dealers in Q1? Could Q2 actually be as low as Q2 of last year? And then even more importantly, I was hoping you could talk a little bit about whether we can extrapolate anything from these kinds of numbers. You did a double-digit margin in North America, 5% in Europe, looks like some pretty good warranty improvement. So when the dust settles, what do you think we can pull out of this as we think about 2022?

我想我的問題是，首先，第一季度經銷商的庫存激勵措施是否有不尋常的收益？ Q2 真的會像去年 Q2 一樣低嗎？然後更重要的是，我希望你能談談我們是否可以從這些數字中推斷出任何東西。你在北美取得了兩位數的利潤率，在歐洲取得了 5% 的利潤率，這看起來像是一些相當不錯的保修改進。因此，當塵埃落定時，您認為我們在考慮 2022 年時可以從中擺脫什麼？

Yes. Rod, thanks. That's a lot there. Let me see if I can unpack that and do justice to the question. So as you said, the run rate of the business is $8 billion to $9 billion. And without chips, we clearly believe that's where we would be. And I think you're seeing come through the quarter a combination of things. As I said in my remarks, you're seeing the strength of the underlying business is improving, and you're seeing that come through. You saw that in the redesign of our overseas operations. You saw that in warranty expense improving, right? Those are 2 things that we said we needed to improve in our business as we move forward through the redesign, and you're seeing that come through. You're also seeing the strength of our new products.

是的。羅德，謝謝。那裡有很多。讓我看看我是否可以打開包裝並公正地解決這個問題。因此，正如您所說，該業務的運營率為 80 億至 90 億美元。如果沒有芯片，我們顯然相信這就是我們的所在。而且我認為您在本季度看到了多種情況。正如我在講話中所說，您看到基礎業務的實力正在改善，並且您看到了這一點。你在我們海外業務的重新設計中看到了這一點。您看到保修費用有所改善，對吧？在我們通過重新設計前進的過程中，我們說我們需要改進我們的業務的兩件事，而您正在看到它的實現。您還可以看到我們新產品的實力。

Now it's a little opaque, I think, for people to say, well, you also saw a considerable pricing opportunity because of supply and demand imbalances. That is true. But so if we go back and we look at what's happened with the pricing for our products since we started the redesign, the refresh, and that's where we come back to. Since 2019, if you look at our price increases, our average transaction price increase compared to what's happened in the industry, our transaction prices have increased $1,900 more than the industry. So that strength is flowing through. Now we had additional pricing opportunity in Q1 due to the supply and demand imbalance. And so that hit the quarter as well. We also saw a very strong mix in the quarter as we had lower production. So we optimized the production to our higher-margin and higher-mix vehicles. So we saw that flow through as well. So you're seeing that combination happen and impact us in Q1.

現在它有點不透明，我認為，人們會說，由於供需失衡，你也看到了相當大的定價機會。那是真實的。但是，如果我們回過頭來看看自從我們開始重新設計、更新以來我們產品的定價發生了什麼變化，這就是我們回來的地方。自 2019 年以來，如果你看一下我們的價格上漲，我們的平均交易價格與行業發生的情況相比，我們的交易價格比行業增加了 1,900 美元。所以那種力量正在流淌。由於供需失衡，現在我們在第一季度有了額外的定價機會。所以這也影響了這個季度。由於產量較低，我們在本季度也看到了非常強勁的組合。因此，我們優化了生產以適應我們更高利潤和更高混合的車輛。所以我們也看到了這種流動。所以你看到這種組合在第一季度發生並影響我們。

Now remember, for the year, as we go through the year, we're also going to see a significant headwind from commodities. We saw very little commodity impact in Q1. That's because we still had our contracts from last year in place, and we had our hedging. And so as we go through the year, we expect -- as contracts roll off and we've seen the commodity prices increase primarily for aluminum steel and precious metals, we expect to see about a $2.5 billion increase in commodities Q2 through Q4. So that's going to hit us as we go through the rest of the year. We also will have the nonrecurrence of the $900 million Rivian gain. And we also expect that as we go through the quarter and we get to more normalized levels of production, albeit we said 10% lower in the second half, we should start to see more and a gradual normalization of those incentives that we experienced in the first quarter, the benefit of that.

現在請記住，今年，隨著我們度過這一年，我們還將看到來自大宗商品的重大逆風。我們在第一季度看到的商品影響很小。那是因為我們仍然有去年的合同，我們有我們的對沖。因此，在我們度過這一年的過程中，我們預計——隨著合同的減少，我們看到大宗商品價格主要是鋁鋼和貴金屬的上漲，我們預計第二季度到第四季度的大宗商品價格將增加約 25 億美元。因此，當我們度過今年餘下的時間時，這將打擊我們。我們還將獲得 9 億美元的 Rivian 收益不再發生。我們還預計，隨著我們度過本季度，我們將達到更加正常化的生產水平，儘管我們說下半年會降低 10%，但我們應該開始看到我們在第二季度經歷的那些激勵措施的更多和逐漸正常化第一季度，受益說。

And then at Ford Credit, we did benefit again in the first quarter from the strong residual values, and we do expect those to moderate as we go through the rest of the year. So we've taken all that into account as we've gone through. And I have to say that what's encouraging to me and what the team has been able to do is we've been able to maintain the impact of the semiconductor chips to that high end of our range, the $2.5 billion, despite the volume impact growing significantly.

然後在福特信貸，我們確實在第一季度再次受益於強勁的剩餘價值，我們確實預計隨著我們在今年剩下的時間裡這些價值會放緩。所以我們在經歷的過程中已經考慮到了所有這些。我不得不說，讓我和團隊能夠做的事情是，我們能夠將半導體芯片的影響保持在我們範圍的高端，即 25 億美元，儘管數量影響正在增長顯著地。

Yes. Could you maybe -- just to ask this a different way, the $8 billion to $9 billion guidance, excluding the semiconductor impact, that includes things like the inflation from commodities and so forth. It does include Rivian as well. But maybe you could just speak to -- at a high level, can we think about that $8 billion to $9 billion as kind of a launching point if we wanted to think about bridging to next year? Is that sort of the run rate of profitability for the business? And there's obviously adjustments in warranty and South America restructuring, new product and things. Maybe you could just speak to that and how we should be thinking about the run rate of profitability.

是的。您能否以不同的方式問這個問題，即 80 億至 90 億美元的指導，不包括半導體影響，包括商品通脹等因素。它也包括里維安。但也許你可以談談——在高層次上，如果我們想考慮過渡到明年，我們是否可以考慮將 80 億至 90 億美元作為啟動點？這就是企業的盈利運行率嗎？並且在保修和南美重組，新產品和事物方面都有明顯的調整。也許你可以談談這個以及我們應該如何考慮盈利率。

Absolutely, that is the run rate leading into next year. And we still have new products of Bronco coming this year, the 2- and 4-door. We have some surprises Jim talked about. We have the F-150 electric. We have the Transit electric. So we have more product coming next year. We're going to continue to be aggressive on our cost structure, pushing that. And the other thing that we're learning coming out of this situation that we're in is how do you operate in a lean environment. And we've learned some quite a few good things about operating with leaner inventories, and I think there's opportunities there as well as we head into '22. So absolutely, the $8 billion to $9 billion is a launching pad, we see that as a launching pad into '22.

當然，這是進入明年的運行速度。今年我們還有 Bronco 的新產品，2 門和 4 門。我們有一些吉姆談到的驚喜。我們有 F-150 電動。我們有 Transit Electric。所以我們明年會有更多的產品。我們將繼續積極推進我們的成本結構，推動這一點。從我們所處的這種情況中，我們學到的另一件事是您如何在精益環境中運作。我們已經學到了一些關於使用精簡庫存運營的好東西，我認為那裡有機會，以及我們進入 22 年。因此，80 億至 90 億美元絕對是一個跳板，我們將其視為 22 年的跳板。

Okay. And just lastly, it sounds like there's some permanency to this transition to the lean inventory sales model. Could you speak to what kind of changes you're expecting here to distribution?

好的。最後，聽起來這種向精益庫存銷售模式的過渡具有一定的永久性。你能談談你在這裡期待什麼樣的變化嗎？

So we've been doing quite a bit, of course, to get customers' vehicles to move people to more -- on order process. We've made changes to our processes to lower the gap between the time an order goes and to the time we can deliver the order. And we're also seeing that as we look at making these types of changes to modernizing or improving our processes in a lower-inventory environment, you get benefits across the patch, right? It would allow us to have lower capital required at Ford Credit, if we have to finance less dealer inventory for our dealers. That could free up some capital to invest in other growth areas.

因此，當然，我們一直在做很多事情，以讓客戶的車輛將人們轉移到更多 - 在訂單流程中。我們已經對我們的流程進行了更改，以縮短訂單到達時間與我們可以交付訂單的時間之間的差距。而且我們還看到，當我們著眼於在低庫存環境中進行這些類型的改變以現代化或改進我們的流程時，您會在整個補丁程序中受益，對嗎？如果我們必須為經銷商提供更少的經銷商庫存，這將使我們在福特信貸所需的資金更少。這可以騰出一些資金投資於其他增長領域。

We would see better quality because we'd have fresher vehicles and vehicles wouldn't be sitting on plots as long. We'd have improved dealer profitability because they wouldn't be financing that floor plan. And we'd have lower incentives. We believe we'd have lower incentives because we'd have quicker turning vehicles, and we'd have higher orders. So as we're working through this lower inventory and these opportunities that we're seeing today, we're working on how we make them a normal part of our business as we go forward.

我們會看到更好的質量，因為我們會有更新鮮的車輛，而且車輛不會在地塊上停留那麼久。我們會提高經銷商的盈利能力，因為他們不會為該平面圖提供資金。而且我們的激勵措施會更低。我們相信我們會有更低的激勵，因為我們會有更快的轉彎車輛，我們會有更高的訂單。因此，當我們正在努力解決這種較低的庫存和我們今天看到的這些機會時，我們正在努力在我們前進的過程中如何讓它們成為我們業務的正常部分。

And our next question is going to come from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的約翰墨菲。

I just wanted to follow up on that line of reasoning. I mean you guys are kind of apologizing here, in some ways, for the good environment and what it's kind of forced you into in this lean inventory situation. Obviously, let's forget about the second, third and fourth quarter because they're going to be disrupted by the chip shortage. But I mean you're seeing -- and you saw this in the third quarter of last year -- these incredible margins, particularly in North America and then with the international -- international in second, but that's being positive, I mean you're kind of rolling off this list of things that have happened and that you may be able to maintain, why wouldn't you maintain them and maintain this supply-demand balance, or imbalance as you call it, but really, some people might say it's a great balance, and really focus on the higher-mix vehicles and drive similar performance?

我只是想跟進那條推理。我的意思是你們在這裡有點道歉，在某些方面，為良好的環境以及在這種精益庫存情況下迫使你們進入的情況。顯然，讓我們忘記第二、第三和第四季度，因為它們將受到芯片短缺的影響。但我的意思是你正在看到 - 你在去年第三季度看到了 - 這些令人難以置信的利潤率，特別是在北美，然後是國際 - 國際排名第二，但這是積極的，我的意思是你重新列出已經發生的事情清單，你可能能夠維持，你為什麼不維持它們並維持這種供需平衡，或者你所說的不平衡，但實際上，有些人可能會說這是一個很好的平衡，並且真的專注於更高混合的車輛並驅動類似的性能？

I mean you've just seen it happen -- third quarter, fourth quarter, there was some launch costs, but you saw it happen in the third quarter, you saw it happen in the first quarter. I mean why would you let it reverse? I mean, obviously, there's some industry dynamics that are -- other people are in -- other companies are in the same situation, but you, yourselves, are controlling this -- can control this going forward on your product mix and what you do with your own production and it's produced wonderful results. I mean why would you let it reverse?

我的意思是你剛剛看到它發生了——第三季度，第四季度，有一些啟動成本，但你看到它發生在第三季度，你看到它發生在第一季度。我的意思是你為什麼要讓它逆轉？我的意思是，很明顯，有一些行業動態——其他人在——其他公司處於同樣的情況，但你自己正在控制這一點——可以控制你的產品組合和你所做的事情的發展用你自己的製作，它產生了美妙的結果。我的意思是你為什麼要讓它逆轉？

We won't. It's Jim. I want to make it really clear, John, that's not our intention. We're a smart team, we're running our business responsibly and there's real goodness here. This is -- personally, 10 years ago, I saw this industry go from 30 days' supply all the way back up to 100 in 10 years. We're not going to let that happen. This is a better way to run our business. It's even more important now. Why? We get to move online. We get to use a reservation system with customers -- for most customers when products are lean. We can simplify our incentives. We have the most complicated go-to-market system, I think, on planet earth. We can simplify all that with tighter inventories. And it's better for the fitness. It also requires our industrial system to be more responsive. So no, I want to make it extremely clear to everyone, we are going to run our business with a lower day supply than we have had in recent past because that's good for our company and good for customers.

我們不會。是吉姆。約翰，我想說清楚，這不是我們的意圖。我們是一個聰明的團隊，我們負責任地經營我們的業務，這裡有真正的好處。這是 - 就個人而言，10 年前，我看到這個行業從 30 天的供應量一路回升到 10 年的 100 天。我們不會讓這種情況發生。這是經營我們業務的更好方式。現在更重要了。為什麼？我們可以上網了。我們可以與客戶一起使用預訂系統——對於大多數產品精益的客戶來說。我們可以簡化我們的激勵措施。我認為，我們擁有地球上最複雜的上市系統。我們可以通過更緊的庫存來簡化這一切。而且對健身更有好處。它還要求我們的工業系統更具響應性。所以不，我想對每個人都非常清楚，我們將以比最近更少的日供應量來運營我們的業務，因為這對我們的公司和客戶都有好處。

Okay. And investors, too, which is important. And I guess, as you think about the experiment -- or not the experiment -- of what you're executing in South America of backing away and putting just a few vehicles, supply a few vehicles in that market, it seems like Europe and China are kind of heading in that same direction. I mean are you learning -- I mean I know it's early days in South America for that business plan; and I mean in relooking at Europe, that will be centered more around commercial vehicles with maybe just a few EV passenger vehicles; and then China, which will be mostly Lincoln and maybe some commercial vehicles; and then IMG, which is the Transit and Ranger, and that's it.

好的。投資者也是如此，這很重要。而且我猜，當你考慮實驗——或者不是實驗——你在南美洲執行的事情是退後並只放幾輛車，在那個市場上供應幾輛車，這似乎是歐洲和中國正朝著同樣的方向前進。我的意思是你在學習嗎——我的意思是我知道南美的商業計劃還處於早期階段；我的意思是重新審視歐洲，這將更多地集中在商用車上，可能只有幾輛電動乘用車；然後是中國，主要是林肯，可能還有一些商用車；然後是 IMG，即 Transit 和 Ranger，僅此而已。

And we'll see some stability in these international regions that hopefully will be profitable, but we won't always kind of be running around freaking out about whack-a-mole and one of the regions blowing up on us, it just seems like you're getting a handle in South America. You're getting a handle in these other regions. I mean is this slimmed-down product offering and maybe smaller size with more stability and better profitability really the direction that you're heading in, in these international regions?

我們會在這些國際地區看到一些穩定，希望能夠盈利，但我們不會總是四處奔波，因為打地鼠和其中一個地區對我們爆炸，看起來就像你在南美洲得到了處理。你在這些其他地區得到了處理。我的意思是，在這些國際地區，這種精簡的產品供應以及可能具有更高穩定性和更高盈利能力的更小尺寸真的是您前進的方向嗎？

Yes, we had $1 billion swing year-over-year. We've been at this for a long time in Europe. We're entering a new phase in Europe. So John, absolutely, the focus in Europe is in commercial vehicles and passion specialty passenger cars. In international markets, it's the Ranger and derivatives of the Ranger. And in China, there's -- China, like North America, will have a more diverse product range than the other markets. But let's be really clear, we're doubling down our iconic nameplates and building out a family of products. We just localized Explore in China. It's doing great. Lincoln is profitable in China. I mean the growth rate of Lincoln in China and the profitability improvement as we localize to 90%, as John said, has been very encouraging to us. So in China and North America, we'll focus on these really passion segments where we think we naturally do well.

是的，我們每年有 10 億美元的波動。我們在歐洲已經有很長時間了。我們正在歐洲進入一個新階段。所以約翰，絕對地，歐洲的重點是商用車和激情特種乘用車。在國際市場上，它是遊俠和遊俠的衍生品。在中國，與北美一樣，中國將擁有比其他市場更多樣化的產品範圍。但是讓我們明確一點，我們正在將我們的標誌性銘牌翻倍並建立一個產品系列。我們剛剛在中國本地化了 Explore。它做得很好。林肯在中國是有利可圖的。我的意思是林肯在中國的增長率以及我們本地化到 90% 的盈利能力提升，正如約翰所說，這對我們來說非常鼓舞人心。因此，在中國和北美，我們將專注於這些我們認為我們自然會做得很好的真正熱情的領域。

But the big change is not just improving the profitability by simplifying where we compete. The big change in the company is going to be investing to an always-on relationship with the customer. That is the real change at Ford. The change of simplifying our lineup and focusing on markets where we can be profitable is necessary. It's the important foundation. But what's sufficiency for us is to evolve into a different model with the customer, and you'll hear more about that in Capital Markets Day.

但最大的變化不僅僅是通過簡化我們的競爭領域來提高盈利能力。公司的重大變化將是投資於與客戶建立永遠在線的關係。這是福特真正的變化。簡化我們的陣容並專注於我們可以盈利的市場的改變是必要的。是重要的基礎。但對我們來說，與客戶一起演變成不同的模式就足夠了，你會在資本市場日聽到更多關於這一點的信息。

Great. Helpful. And just quickly on FMCC, obviously, resids are probably going to stay stronger this year. I think you're probably being a little bit conservative there on your expectations. But if you also, once again, think about this focus on mix and price and not overproducing, the net beneficiary also is FMCC. You mentioned the balance sheet being potentially a little bit smaller in the future as you can do more with less maybe everywhere, what does FMCC going to look like? I mean I think we traditionally kind of think about $100 billion balance sheet, but it sounds like it might be somewhat smaller and have better returns and maybe more stability in it. What are the net benefits to FMCC over time as the strategy emerges?

偉大的。有幫助。很快，在 FMCC 上，渣油今年可能會保持強勁。我認為你可能對你的期望有點保守。但是，如果您也再次考慮這種對組合和價格的關注，而不是過度生產，那麼淨受益者也是 FMCC。您提到未來資產負債表可能會變小一點，因為您可以在任何地方用更少的錢做更多的事情，FMCC 會是什麼樣子？我的意思是，我認為我們傳統上會考慮 1000 億美元的資產負債表，但聽起來它可能會更小一些，回報更好，而且可能更穩定。隨著戰略的出現，隨著時間的推移，FMCC 的淨收益是什麼？

John, it's Marion. I think you covered a lot of it. We do see used vehicle prices being stronger throughout this supply shock. And so they're going to remain strong for quite some time, just as John said earlier. And I think that's going to provide a lot of support for new vehicle pricing as well. The $100 billion you mentioned is about the size of the U.S. balance sheet. Ford Credit in total is better than that, it's $130 billion or so. So we're down quite a bit. But it's all dealer floor plan, and so that's affecting -- that's a downside to our profitability but, on the other side of it, it's a strong used car prices.

約翰，是馬里恩。我想你涵蓋了很多。我們確實看到在這次供應衝擊期間二手車價格走強。因此，正如約翰之前所說，他們將在相當長的一段時間內保持強大。我認為這也將為新車定價提供很多支持。你提到的1000億美元大約是美國資產負債表的規模。福特信貸總體上比這要好，大約是 1300 億美元。所以我們倒下了很多。但這都是經銷商的平面圖，所以這會產生影響——這對我們的盈利能力不利，但另一方面，這是一個強勁的二手車價格。

Okay. But could that be somewhat structural going forward? Or do you really think this is transitory through the course of this year?

好的。但這可能是某種結構性的前進嗎？或者你真的認為這在今年是暫時的嗎？

At this stage, I'd say it's transitory.

在這個階段，我會說它是暫時的。

And our next question will come from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Great. I just wanted to step back. If we look at the semi issue, are -- do you think you're more impacted than the industry? I'm just trying to understand, if you lose 1.1 million, do you think you're able to recoup those in 2022? Or are other competitors maybe going to sweep in and take some of them because they have maybe a better supply chain? Just trying to understand if maybe you could kind of recoup that lost volume into next year.

偉大的。我只是想退後一步。如果我們看看半問題，你認為你比這個行業受到的影響更大嗎？我只是想明白，如果你損失了 110 萬，你認為你能在 2022 年收回這些嗎？或者其他競爭者可能會因為可能擁有更好的供應鏈而橫掃並拿走其中一些？只是想了解您是否可以將損失的數量彌補到明年。

Great question. Thank you, Colin. I would say it's difficult to make that judgment. If you look in the change of inventory, which is, I think, a great predictor of wholesale back in the quarter competitively, I think most of the major brands were impacted almost equally. So a lot of different news releases, a lot of different opaque data coming out, I can understand why you asked the question. We don't know yet how this will play out competitively. But we do know the first quarter actually played out a lot more evenly than maybe even we thought. As it goes on in the second half and into 2022, we're starting to grow in confidence that we can support our recovery volume. We think it's prudent to have the 10% in our planning, but we are going to work very hard to make sure that doesn't happen.

好問題。謝謝你，科林。我會說很難做出這樣的判斷。如果你看看庫存的變化，我認為，這是一個很好的預測本季度批發競爭力的指標，我認為大多數主要品牌幾乎都受到了同樣的影響。所以很多不同的新聞發布，很多不同的不透明數據出來，我能理解你為什麼問這個問題。我們還不知道這將如何競爭。但我們確實知道第一節的表現實際上比我們想像的要均勻得多。隨著下半年和 2022 年的繼續，我們開始對我們能夠支持我們的複蘇量充滿信心。我們認為在我們的計劃中保留 10% 是謹慎的，但我們將非常努力地確保不會發生這種情況。

It's just too early to tell. The Renesas impact, we think, is going to be largely finished by the second quarter if they execute, and they're just in the middle of that right now. And so that kind of leaves us back with the Taiwanese foundries and how persistent that's going to be. And right now, I just think it's a little too early to declare what that's going to look like. But what we do know is the first quarter kind of turned out that most major players, except for some of the companies who had buffer stock and saw this coming, they weren't affected. But I think Renesas now swept up most everyone in the industry. Just hard to tell how lumpy that's going to be across different brands.

現在說還為時過早。我們認為，如果瑞薩電子的影響力得以實施，他們將在第二季度基本完成，而他們現在正處於中間階段。所以這讓我們回到了台灣代工廠，以及這將是多麼持久。而現在，我只是認為現在宣布它會是什麼樣子還為時過早。但我們所知道的是，第一季度大多數主要參與者都沒有受到影響，除了一些擁有緩衝庫存並預見到這一點的公司外，他們沒有受到影響。但我認為瑞薩電子現在席捲了業內大多數人。很難說這在不同品牌之間會有多混亂。

No, that's very helpful color. Just more strategically, you made the announcement on Ion Park yesterday. I mean how should we be viewing this? I mean is this an effort to make your own batteries? Or is this trying to build that expertise in-house so you could provide that to your battery partners? I'm not sure if we should read more into that announcement.

不，這是非常有用的顏色。更具戰略意義的是，你昨天在離子公園宣布了這一消息。我的意思是我們應該如何看待這個？我的意思是這是你自己製造電池的努力嗎？或者這是試圖在內部建立這種專業知識，以便您可以將其提供給您的電池合作夥伴？我不確定我們是否應該閱讀該公告的更多內容。

Thank you so much for asking this question. The answer is this is a very important announcement from Ford strategically. In the first inning, we could buy off-the-shelf and cherrypick the technology and energy density and the cost. We've totally entered a different zone now with our volumes -- planned volumes going up so much. So we've already made the decision of vertically integrating the company. We're now building motors, e-axles now. We've been writing our own battery management software for quite some time. And now it's time for us to lock in on the latest technology and to have a secure cell production relationship.

非常感謝您提出這個問題。答案是，這是福特戰略上非常重要的公告。在第一局中，我們可以購買現成的並挑選技術、能量密度和成本。我們現在已經完全進入了一個不同的區域，我們的交易量——計劃的交易量增長了很多。所以我們已經做出了垂直整合公司的決定。我們現在正在製造電機、電動車軸。我們編寫自己的電池管理軟件已經有一段時間了。現在是我們鎖定最新技術並建立安全電池生產關係的時候了。

There's no news to make today. But the reason why that Ion Park announcement is so important is because it's our place where we will learn. We will learn with our partners how to transition to the very best in technology, energy density, the minerals, all the supply chain for batteries and cells, but also the manufacturability. And ultimately, I think to be competitive in this industry, a major brand like Ford will have to vertically integrate all the way through the system. It's just too early to make a bunch of announcements, but this is our dream team who will be developing that capability in the company.

今天沒有消息要發布。但離子公園公告之所以如此重要，是因為這是我們學習的地方。我們將與我們的合作夥伴一起學習如何在技術、能量密度、礦物、電池和電池的所有供應鏈以及可製造性方面過渡到最好的水平。最終，我認為要在這個行業中具有競爭力，像福特這樣的主要品牌將不得不在整個系統中進行垂直整合。現在發布大量公告還為時過早，但這是我們夢寐以求的團隊，他們將在公司發展這種能力。

And our next question will come from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

I actually wanted to go back to something Rod brought up earlier. I know you mentioned 700,000 units out in the second quarter. Of course, we don't know what you were originally planning. So is it likely the second quarter looks similar to the second quarter of last year? And somewhat related, to your point, John, like the $2.5 billion headwind for the year is really just the high end of your prior range. But is the gross number higher and that's been offset by other factors such as stronger pricing and maybe Ford Credit that bring it back down to that high end?

我實際上想回到羅德早些時候提到的東西。我知道你提到第二季度有 700,000 個單位。當然，我們不知道您最初的計劃是什麼。那麼第二季度是否可能與去年第二季度相似？與你的觀點有點相關，約翰，就像今年 25 億美元的逆風實際上只是你之前範圍的高端。但是，總數量是否更高，並且被其他因素所抵消，例如更強勁的定價以及可能將其帶回高端的福特信貸？

Yes. Thanks. Great question. So it is similar to what we saw last year. We're going to lose about 700,000 units. We said it was 50% -- roughly 50% of the planned production we had. And you look at the second quarter of last year, and it was very similar to that. And I would say, we -- as we got into this through the quarter, we have seen the team identify opportunities to offset more of the impact than we had originally thought. That's why we're able to contain a much higher miss on the volumes within that original guidance. And so the teams have been working extremely hard to bring the goodness that we're seeing in the core run rate of the business through and then to find other opportunities. So absolutely on both of those.

是的。謝謝。好問題。所以它與我們去年看到的相似。我們將損失大約 700,000 個單位。我們說它是 50%——大約是我們計劃產量的 50%。你看看去年第二季度，它與那個非常相似。我想說，我們 - 當我們進入這個季度時，我們已經看到團隊發現了抵消比我們最初想像的更多影響的機會。這就是為什麼我們能夠在原始指南中包含更高的錯誤率。因此，團隊一直在非常努力地工作，以實現我們在業務核心運行率中看到的好處，然後尋找其他機會。所以絕對在這兩個方面。

Okay. And then second question -- glad to hear the discussion about trying to keep dealer inventories more balanced. I guess the other lesson that could be learned here, and I'm curious, Jim or John, on what your preliminary thoughts is, do you just need to -- we've gone through a couple of these crisis. Do you need to change how you think about assuring supply and -- of key components, including chips and/or that sort of keeping more inventory historically, maybe it's more direct buy and not relying on Tier 1s? And if so, maybe again at a high level, how should we think about that practically working? Like, where in the value chain will that inventory be stored? And is that maybe a cost you're willing to incur for greater stability in the future?

好的。然後是第二個問題——很高興聽到關於試圖保持經銷商庫存更加平衡的討論。我想這裡可以學到另一個教訓，我很好奇，吉姆或約翰，關於你的初步想法是什麼，你只需要 - 我們已經經歷了幾次這樣的危機。您是否需要改變您對確保供應和關鍵組件的看法，包括芯片和/或歷史上保持更多庫存的方式，也許它更直接購買而不依賴於第 1 層？如果是這樣，也許在高層次上，我們應該如何考慮實際工作？比如，這些庫存將存儲在價值鏈的哪個位置？這可能是你願意為未來更大的穩定性而付出的代價嗎？

Thank you. The answer is yes. We have learned a lot through this crisis that can be applied to many critical components that will be the essence of our new business, a modernized Ford, and it goes far beyond semi chips. There are other components that are really key enablers. It was very interesting for me personally as the CEO to talk to many of our colleagues in other industries and to find out how common buffer stocks are and how common direct buys are for the -- with the foundries, even if the company still buys the components with the chips on them from a supplier. They still negotiated a direct deal. These are all on the table at Ford right now, as you can imagine. We're also thinking about what this means for the world of batteries and silicon and all sorts of other components that are really mission-critical for our company and our capability.

謝謝你。答案是肯定的。我們從這場危機中學到了很多東西，這些知識可以應用於許多關鍵部件，這些部件將成為我們新業務的精髓，現代化的福特汽車，它遠遠超出了半導體芯片的範疇。還有其他組件是真正的關鍵推動因素。作為首席執行官，我個人非常感興趣，與我們在其他行業的許多同事交談，並了解緩衝庫存的常見程度以及直接購買對於鑄造廠的常見程度，即使公司仍然購買來自供應商的帶有芯片的組件。他們仍然談判直接交易。正如您可以想像的那樣，這些現在都在福特的桌子上。我們還在考慮這對電池和矽以及對我們公司和我們的能力真正關鍵任務的各種其他組件的世界意味著什麼。

When I look at the company and what we need to vertically integrate, these are the areas we're going to bet on moving inside the company for core competency. And as we do that, the supply chain becomes even more critical. But we also know more about it. So thank you for the question. And you can imagine everything is on the table, like you mentioned, from buffer stocks to direct deals with the foundries.

當我查看公司以及我們需要垂直整合的內容時，這些是我們將押注在公司內部以獲得核心競爭力的領域。當我們這樣做時，供應鏈變得更加關鍵。但我們也知道更多。所以謝謝你的問題。你可以想像一切都擺在桌面上，就像你提到的那樣，從緩衝庫存到與代工廠的直接交易。

And our next question will come from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Obviously, a standout performance in North America despite downtime and costs associated with the F-150 launch and the semiconductor shortage. And a lot of moving pieces with regard to the guide and the rest of the year, with the change impact from the chip issue and now the Renesas fire, et cetera. So I thought maybe it would be great to just sort of zero in on your performance in the first quarter itself and get your thoughts on what a 12.3% North America margin in 1Q might imply for margin potential in a normalized environment, kind of looking at the historical cadence of North America margin over the past 5 years or -- the 5 years ended in 2019, and it seems like 1Q margin averages just about 40 bps higher than the full year amount. And so maybe you're already operating in 1Q at almost a 12% kind of annual run rate, and that's amidst an F-150 launch and before any contribution from the Bronco. So how would you rate the underlying performance in North America? And does that performance in 1Q suggests, once all the supply chain dust settles, a stronger than targeted 10% regional margin?

顯然，儘管與 F-150 的發射和半導體短缺相關的停機時間和成本高昂，但在北美的表現依然出色。還有很多關於指南和今年剩餘時間的活動，包括芯片問題和現在瑞薩大火等帶來的變化影響。因此，我認為將您在第一季度本身的表現歸零並了解第一季度北美 12.3% 的利潤率可能意味著在正常化環境中的利潤率潛力可能會很棒，有點看北美保證金在過去 5 年或截至 2019 年的 5 年的歷史節奏，似乎 1Q 保證金平均僅比全年高出約 40 個基點。因此，也許您已經在第一季度以幾乎 12% 的年運行率運行，這是在 F-150 發射期間和野馬做出任何貢獻之前。那麼，您如何評價北美的潛在表現？第一季度的表現是否表明，一旦所有供應鏈塵埃落定，10% 的區域利潤率將高於目標？

Thanks, Ryan. So I think we have to go back and just ground ourselves again in that run rate of the business of $8 billion to $9 billion. And I don't want to get too far out ahead of ourselves on North America and what this quarter might mean for the run rate going forward given, as you said, there's just a lot of moving parts within this quarter. I think the team has done a great job of managing through it. We really saw the $8 billion to $9 billion as the run rate heading into '22. We're going to do everything we can to continue to drive margin improvement, both here and overseas. And the team's focused. And Jim is pushing us really hard to continue to modernize and improve the business in every place that we can. But as far as trying to predict what -- coming out of this quarter, what that means for the margin in North America and putting a number on the table, I'm not going to do that right now.

謝謝，瑞恩。所以我認為我們必須回到過去，重新立足於 80 億到 90 億美元的業務運行速度。而且我不想在北美和本季度對未來的運行速度意味著什麼，正如你所說，本季度只有很多活動部分。我認為團隊在管理方面做得很好。我們真的看到了 80 億到 90 億美元的運行率進入 22 年。我們將盡我們所能繼續推動提高利潤率，無論是在國內還是在海外。而且團隊很專注。吉姆正在努力推動我們繼續在我們可以做到的每一個地方實現現代化和改進業務。但就試圖預測本季度的結果而言，這對北美的利潤率意味著什麼並提出一個數字，我現在不打算這樣做。

Ryan, just -- it's Jim, I'll be really quick. I've been in this business, worked for different brands, I can't remember a time in my life, in my career, to have had so many hot products in one market like North America as Ford does right now. I mean Mach-E sold out. Bronco Sport sold out. F-Series sold out. Super Duty sold out. We have a very -- our fresh new lineup is not only fresh but it seems to be hitting the mark of the zeitgeist of the customer right now. And yes, I don't know where that's going to take us. You asked a really good question. I don't know where that's going to take us. But I do know it feels like we're going to be chasing demand for quite some time.

瑞恩，只是 - 是吉姆，我會很快的。我一直從事這項業務，為不同的品牌工作過，我不記得在我的職業生涯中，我曾有過像福特現在這樣在北美這樣的市場擁有如此多熱門產品的經歷。我的意思是 Mach-E 賣光了。 Bronco Sport 售罄。 F系列售罄。 Super Duty 售罄。我們有一個非常 - 我們的全新陣容不僅新鮮，而且現在似乎正在觸及客戶的時代精神。是的，我不知道這會帶我們去哪裡。你問了一個非常好的問題。我不知道這會把我們帶到哪裡。但我確實知道這感覺就像我們將在相當長的一段時間內追逐需求。

That's helpful color. Let me ask just lastly around the commodity inflation you're seeing and your ability to price for it. You've called out the $2.5 billion headwind for the year. You did take $3 billion of price in 1Q. Although I'm cognizant there's a lot that goes into that calculation, including relative to new launches, et cetera. I think pricing is historically positive on launch models, I think, particularly, as you mentioned, you have a lot of those this year, but it tends to be negative for carryover models. And I'm just thinking back to, like, 2011, 2012, kind of coming out of the financial crisis in '08-'09 after a lot of final assembly capacity have been taken out, I recall you and others reporting on the relative anomaly of positive pricing on even carryover models.

這是有用的顏色。最後讓我問一下你所看到的商品通脹以及你為它定價的能力。你已經消除了今年 25 億美元的逆風。你確實在第一季度獲得了 30 億美元的價格。雖然我知道這個計算有很多內容，包括相對於新發布的等等。我認為歷史上發布模型的定價是積極的，我認為，特別是，正如你所提到的，今年你有很多這樣的，但對於結轉模型來說往往是負面的。我只是回想一下，比如，2011 年、2012 年，在大量總裝產能被淘汰後，在 08-09 年的金融危機中走出來，我記得你和其他人報告過相關偶數結轉模型的正定價異常。

So I'm just curious if we could see something similar now. Say, if the commodities headwind were to grow worse, if the supply-demand dynamic puts the industry in a position to pass really all the incremental cost onto the consumer. Or how do you see maybe the share of the burden taking place? Maybe the higher commodities being -- the cost of it being shared between yourselves versus the consumer, versus suppliers, dealer margin, I don't know what you think.

所以我只是好奇我們現在是否能看到類似的東西。比如說，如果商品逆風變得更糟，如果供需動態使該行業能夠真正將所有增量成本轉嫁給消費者。或者您如何看待可能發生的負擔份額？也許更高的商品是——你們自己與消費者、供應商、經銷商利潤之間分攤的成本，我不知道你怎麼想。

I would say we're definitely feeling the commodity headwind, as John said. And inflation, it feels like we're seeing inflation in variety parts of our industry kind of in ways we haven't seen for many years. On the other hand, it feels like it's all due to a lot of one-timers as the economy comes out of lockdown. So I think it's a bit too early to declare the run rate of where it's going to be. It's just too hard to tell from my standpoint. I will note, though, based on your question, that many of the vehicles that are supposedly aging at Ford, or normally would be aging, are still relatively new. Super Duty is relatively new, Explorer's relatively new. Yes, Escape, we have all the Lincoln lineup as brand new. So normally, we wouldn't have so much new at the same time. And even the vehicles that are 1 or 2 years old are still relatively new in their segments.

正如約翰所說，我會說我們肯定感受到了商品逆風。和通貨膨脹，感覺就像我們在我們行業的各個部分看到了我們多年未見的通貨膨脹。另一方面，隨著經濟擺脫封鎖，感覺這一切都歸功於很多一次性的。所以我認為現在宣布它的運行速度有點為時過早。從我的角度來說，這太難說了。不過，我會注意到，根據您的問題，許多據稱在福特老化或通常會老化的車輛仍然相對較新。 Super Duty相對較新，Explorer相對較新。是的，Escape，我們擁有全新的林肯系列。所以通常情況下，我們不會同時有這麼多新東西。即使是使用了 1 年或 2 年的車輛在其細分市場中仍然相對較新。

Our last question for the day will come from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

So I'm still trying to better understand the $8 billion to $9 billion run rate, which is unchanged from your view earlier in the year. So let me try and ask it this way. Did the first quarter earnings or results play out as you had expected at the beginning of the year? And if it played out better, what are some of the expected offsets, which are nonsemi-related that would prompt you to keep the same basis as the underlying profitability?

因此，我仍在努力更好地了解 80 億至 90 億美元的運行率，這與你今年早些時候的看法沒有變化。所以讓我試著這樣問。第一季度的收益或結果是否如您在年初預期的那樣發揮作用？如果它表現得更好，有哪些預期的抵消，它們是非半相關的，會促使你保持與潛在盈利能力相同的基礎？

So no, the quarter did not play out as we originally expected, right? It came in much better. We did not expect that we would be able to more than offset all of the impact of the chips in the quarter, which -- where it was 17% or about 200,000 units. So we saw incredible opportunity there from the industry-wide supply and demand imbalance. So we saw pricing increase significantly. We also then -- because of the supply imbalance, we really pushed hard on mix. So those were things that allowed us to improve the quarter. We did not expect used vehicle prices to increase 14% in the quarter, and they did. And that helped, and that was part of what's happened with Ford Credit and the performance of Ford Credit.

所以不，這個季度並沒有像我們最初預期的那樣發揮作用，對吧？它進來好多了。我們沒想到我們能夠在本季度抵消芯片的所有影響，其中 17% 或約 200,000 單位。因此，我們從全行業的供需失衡中看到了難以置信的機會。因此，我們看到價格大幅上漲。然後我們也 - 由於供應不平衡，我們真的很努力地混合。所以這些都是讓我們能夠改善本季度的事情。我們沒想到本季度二手車價格會上漲 14%，而且確實如此。這有所幫助，這是福特信貸和福特信貸表現的一部分。

And then as we go through the year, Emmanuel, one of the things that did not hit us in the first quarter that's going to hit us through the rest of the year is the commodity cost increases that come in quite significantly through Q2 to Q4. So those are some of the things that are coming back and are going to come through the second half of the year. And then the other thing is, as production normalizes a bit and supply and demand becomes more imbalanced, we do expect that we should see some of this pricing that we saw in the first quarter moderate a bit. And we should see some of that happen through the second quarter -- through the second half of the year.

然後，隨著我們度過這一年，伊曼紐爾，在第一季度沒有影響到我們但將在今年剩餘時間裡影響到我們的事情之一是在第二季度到第四季度相當顯著的商品成本增加。所以這些是一些正在回歸的事情，並將在今年下半年出現。然後另一件事是，隨著生產稍微正常化並且供需變得更加不平衡，我們確實預計我們應該看到我們在第一季度看到的一些定價會有所緩和。我們應該會在第二季度看到其中的一些——到今年下半年。

Is the commodities impact larger -- much larger than you had thought originally?

大宗商品的影響是否比您最初想像的要大得多？

When we had first looked at it, we thought it was going to be significant, somewhere between $1.5 billion to $2 billion. So it's slightly higher than what we had thought coming into the year.

當我們第一次看到它時，我們認為它會很重要，大約在 15 億到 20 億美元之間。所以它略高於我們今年的預期。

Okay. And then follow-up question, I found it very impressive some of the improvements that you're showing in the first quarter in terms of net pricing and cost in some of the international markets and showing some good traction with the fitness initiative. I was hoping you could comment directly on Europe, in particular around -- and South America, around the sustainability of some of these performance that we're seeing. How much do you think is sort of market-driven versus some of your own actions, both on the net pricing side and also, obviously, on the cost side, the sustainability of those?

好的。然後是後續問題，我發現您在第一季度在一些國際市場的淨定價和成本方面表現出的一些改進令人印象深刻，並顯示出對健身計劃的一些良好牽引力。我希望你能直接評論歐洲，特別是在歐洲和南美洲，圍繞我們所看到的其中一些表現的可持續性。您認為市場驅動與您自己的一些行為相比，在淨定價方面以及顯然在成本方面，這些行為的可持續性方面有多少？

Yes. So in Europe, this is the second strong quarter that Ford of Europe has printed for us. And I think what you're seeing there is the redesign flowing through and showing up significantly again in this quarter. And of course, the market was aided a bit by what we're seeing in the dynamics in this quarter. But the fundamental underlying strength of the business in Europe has improved. We took over $1 billion of structural costs out as we relooked at the footprint. We've moved into commercial vehicles and improved our share there. We have a higher mix of utility. All of that is providing a much stronger business for us in Europe, and you've seen that 2 quarters in a row now.

是的。因此，在歐洲，這是福特歐洲為我們印刷的第二個強勁季度。而且我認為您所看到的是重新設計在本季度再次出現並再次顯著。當然，我們在本季度看到的動態對市場有所幫助。但歐洲業務的基本潛在實力有所改善。當我們重新審視足跡時，我們節省了超過 10 億美元的結構成本。我們已經進入商用車領域，並提高了我們在那裡的份額。我們有更高的效用組合。所有這些都為我們在歐洲的業務提供了更強大的業務，您現在已經連續兩個季度看到了這一點。

Then when you look at South America, we reduced our volumes significantly and we improved our profitability. And that just comes back to the point that we [need to restructure] the market, and we are. And now we're going to focus on our higher-margin vehicle, a smaller footprint, a smaller business down there, leaning into Ranger and Transit, which are good vehicles in the market, and they're strong vehicles for us as a company. And so you're starting to see that redesign really take hold.

然後當你看看南美時，我們顯著減少了我們的銷量，我們提高了我們的盈利能力。這又回到了我們[需要重組]市場的地步，我們就是這樣。現在我們將專注於我們的利潤率更高、佔地面積更小、業務規模更小的汽車，轉向 Ranger 和 Transit，它們是市場上的好車，它們對我們公司來說是強大的工具.因此，您開始看到重新設計確實佔據了主導地位。

Thank you. And with that, we must conclude today's Ford Motor Company First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. We do appreciate your participation and ask that you please disconnect. Thank you.

謝謝你。至此，我們必須結束今天的福特汽車公司 2021 年第一季度收益電話會議。我們非常感謝您的參與，並要求您斷開連接。謝謝你。