福特汽車 (F) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Holly, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，美好的一天。我的名字是霍莉，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎您參加福特汽車公司 2020 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations. Lynn, I hand it to you.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。林恩，我把它交給你。

Thank you so much, Holly, and welcome, everyone, to Ford Motor Company's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. Presenting today are Jim Farley, our President and CEO; John Lawler, our Chief Financial Officer; and also joining us for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit. Jim will have some opening comments. John will talk about our third quarter results and then we'll turn to Q&A.

非常感謝霍莉，歡迎大家參加福特汽車公司 2020 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天的演講嘉賓是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Farley；我們的首席財務官約翰·勞勒； Ford Credit 首席執行官 Marion Harris 也加入了我們的問答環節。 Jim 會有一些開場白。約翰將談論我們第三季度的業績，然後我們將轉向問答環節。

Our results discussed today include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measure in the appendix of our earnings deck, which can be found along with the rest of our earnings materials at shareholder.ford.com. Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements about our expectations, and actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Slide 23. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis and product mix is volume weighted.

我們今天討論的結果包括一些非 GAAP 參考。這些與我們收益甲板附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則衡量標準相一致，該附錄與我們的其他收益材料一起可在 sharepoint.ford.com 上找到。今天的討論包括關於我們預期的前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與所陳述的不同。可能導致實際結果不同的最重要因素包含在幻燈片 23 中。除非另有說明，否則所有比較都是同比。公司息稅前利潤、每股收益和自由現金流量是經過調整的，產品組合是數量加權的。

A quick update on our IR events over the next few weeks. On Monday, November 2, Credit Suisse will host a fireside chat with John Lawler, Marion Harris and Kumar Galhotra, Ford's President of the Americas and our International Markets Group. And then on November 10, Stuart Taylor, Executive Director of Enterprise Connectivity, will participate in Deutsche Bank's Auto Tech Virtual Conference.

在接下來的幾週內快速更新我們的 IR 活動。 11 月 2 日星期一，瑞士信貸將與 John Lawler、Marion Harris 和福特美洲及國際市場集團總裁 Kumar Galhotra 舉行爐邊談話。然後在 11 月 10 日，Enterprise Connectivity 執行董事 Stuart Taylor 將參加德意志銀行的汽車技術虛擬會議。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim Farley. Jim?

現在我將把電話轉給 Jim Farley。吉姆?

Thanks, Lynn, and hi, everyone. First, let me say how humbled I am and what a privilege it is to be the CEO of Ford. My family's been with Ford since 1916 when my grandfather started at Highland Park here in Michigan. And in that moment, our family story really started to change for the better, and countless people all over have similar stories about Ford. We're a family company from the leadership of Bill Ford all the way to the members on our factory floor.

謝謝，林恩，大家好。首先，讓我說我是多麼的謙卑，成為福特的首席執行官是多麼的榮幸。自 1916 年我祖父在密歇根州的高地公園開始工作以來，我的家人就一直在福特公司工作。在那一刻，我們的家庭故事真的開始變得更好，全世界無數人都有關於福特的類似故事。我們是一家家族企業，從 Bill Ford 的領導一直到工廠車間的成員。

I'm extremely motivated to help build a vibrant and growing Ford that will have a positive effect for generations to come, benefiting all of our stakeholders. Now we've assembled a very talented leadership team to get this done, a combination of strong lifetime and long-time Ford people who truly know our business. But we also have new colleagues, bringing very different experiences and know-how and talent to the company to execute our plan. And we plan to continue to add to this bench with key capabilities in marketing, in technology and many other areas.

我非常有動力幫助建立一個充滿活力和不斷發展的福特，這將對後代產生積極影響，使我們所有的利益相關者受益。現在，我們已經組建了一支非常有才華的領導團隊來完成這項工作，他們結合了強大的終身和真正了解我們業務的長期福特員工。但我們也有新同事，他們為公司帶來了截然不同的經驗、專業知識和人才來執行我們的計劃。我們計劃繼續在營銷、技術和許多其他領域增加關鍵能力。

Over the past several months, I've spoken to many of you, and I believe the plan we now have and have developed and are now executing on aligns well with many of your expectations. We're committed to creating a Ford that grows profitably and generates sustainable free cash flow, led by our automotive business. And we're going to allocate capital to the best and highest usage to drive sustainable value creation.

在過去的幾個月裡，我與你們中的許多人進行了交談，我相信我們現在已經制定並正在執行的計劃與你們的許多期望非常吻合。我們致力於打造一款以我們的汽車業務為主導，實現盈利增長並產生可持續自由現金流的福特汽車。我們將把資本分配給最好和最高的用途，以推動可持續的價值創造。

Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, number one, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses. And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale.

現在，該計劃於 10 月 1 日介紹給福特團隊和許多利益相關者，非常簡單。除其他事項外，第一，我們將像挑戰者一樣競爭，以優質的產品和服務贏得每一位客戶，並提供有益的所有權體驗。第二，我們正急切地扭轉我們的汽車業務，提高我們的質量，降低我們的成本，並加速對業績不佳的業務進行重組。第三，我們將在正確的領域再次增長，為我們最強大的業務和汽車特許經營分配更多的資金、更多的資源、更多的人才；孵化、擴展和整合新業務，其中一些由 Argo 世界級的自動駕駛系統等新技術支持；並以可觀的利潤擴大我們領先的商用車業務，但現在使用可提高忠誠度並產生類似年金的重複收入流的軟件服務套件；並成為我們擁有實力和規模的全球電動汽車革命的領導者。

So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 in the Transit, the 2 most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them. We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers.

所以現在談論電動汽車。首先，我們正在開發全順 F-150 的全新電動版本，這是我們行業中最重要、銷量最大的兩種商用車。這些領先的車輛真正推動了福特的商用車業務，我們正在為它們供電。我們在福特擁有工作。這些電動汽車將是真正的工作車輛，功能強大，具有獨特的數字服務和無線功能，可提高我們重要商業客戶的生產力和正常運行時間。

The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the 2 largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive. And we're going straight at this opportunity.

順便說一句，電動 Transit 將於下個月發布，您首先在這裡聽說過它，適用於我們所有的全球市場。我們相信，全電動商用貨車和皮卡的潛在市場，這兩個最大的商業利潤池，將是巨大的。我們將直接抓住這個機會。

Together, we think the accessible price points of these vehicles, the productivity, the capability, the cost of ownership will be very compelling for one of -- some of our customers. And frankly, Ford is not only in front of developing the electric Transit F-150. We also have an unmatched dealer base to provide that anywhere service or great uptime for our customers. We have a great customer base with deep know-how on their usage and expertise in the commercial vehicle business such as the largest up-bidder community there is, period.

總之，我們認為這些車輛的可訪問價格點、生產力、能力、擁有成本對於我們的一些客戶來說將非常有吸引力。坦率地說，福特不僅在開發電動全順 F-150 方面處於領先地位。我們還擁有無與倫比的經銷商基礎，可為我們的客戶提供隨時隨地的服務或超長的正常運行時間。我們擁有龐大的客戶群，他們對他們在商用車業務的使用和專業知識有深入的了解，例如目前最大的投標人社區。

Also in the coming weeks, we will deliver the first Mustang Mach-E to customers in the U.S. and Europe. The reservations have been very strong for this vehicle, and soon after, it will go on sale even in China. Now in 30 years of being in this wonderful business, I have never been so pumped up about one of the retail vehicles. I recently had a chance to put 1,000 miles on a Mach-E, and that Mustang and that engineering team had to pry that vehicle out of my hands. It just elevated experience the way it drives, the connected technology in the cabin, the ingenious cloud-enabled services. It's all in the heart of the market from a price point. Such a large addressable market, the 2-row crossover business. And we have a real advantage, especially in the U.S. with the EV tax credit.

同樣在接下來的幾週內，我們將向美國和歐洲的客戶交付第一輛 Mustang Mach-E。這輛車的預訂量非常大，不久之後，它甚至會在中國上市銷售。現在，在從事這項出色業務的 30 年中，我從未對其中一款零售車輛如此興奮過。我最近有機會在 Mach-E 上行駛 1,000 英里，而 Mustang 和那個工程團隊不得不從我手中撬開那輛車。它只是提升了駕駛方式、機艙內的互聯技術、巧妙的雲服務的體驗。從價格點來看，這一切都在市場的核心。如此大的潛在市場，兩排跨界業務。我們有一個真正的優勢，尤其是在美國有電動汽車稅收抵免。

Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford. It's also important to note that we're building out our electric vehicle manufacturing footprint around the world. And we now have 4 plants in North America alone, including an all-new carbon-neutral factory going up at the Rouge plant as we speak a few miles from here. We also recently finalized an agreement with the Canadian auto workers union, Unifor, that paves the way for future electric SUVs to be built by our team in Oakville, Canada.

現在，您將看到我們的領先商用車電氣化戰略和我們標誌性的大批量產品在福特迅速擴張。同樣重要的是要注意，我們正在全球範圍內建立我們的電動汽車製造足跡。我們現在僅在北美就有 4 家工廠，其中包括一家全新的碳中和工廠，位於 Rouge 工廠，距離這裡幾英里。我們最近還與加拿大汽車工人工會 Unifor 敲定了一項協議，該協議為我們在加拿大奧克維爾的團隊製造未來的電動 SUV 鋪平了道路。

Now as we execute our plan, my commitment to each of you is transparency, including purposeful, measurable key performance indicators, so you can objectively track our progress. We plan to provide you with more details about our plan, including financial targets in the spring.

現在，當我們執行我們的計劃時，我對你們每個人的承諾是透明的，包括有目的的、可衡量的關鍵績效指標，這樣你們就可以客觀地跟踪我們的進展。我們計劃為您提供有關我們計劃的更多詳細信息，包括春季的財務目標。

With that, let me briefly touch on the robust third quarter and what we have on tap for the fourth quarter. When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision 2 years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter. At a time when inventories are really low following the virus-related first half factory shutdowns. Now this contributed to a very favorable pricing environment and mix.

有了這個，讓我簡要介紹一下強勁的第三季度以及我們在第四季度的可用情況。當您查看我們的結果時，它們反映了我們在 2 年前決定將資金分配給我們最強大的特許經營權的好處，即：皮卡、全球範圍內的各種公用事業、商用車和標誌性乘用車。此外，我們看到本季度對我們新車的需求高於預期。在與病毒相關的上半年工廠關閉後庫存非常低的時候。現在，這促成了非常有利的定價環境和組合。

Together, these factors, plus the strong performance from the Ford -- the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year. As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow.

這些因素，加上福特的強勁表現——福特信貸 15 年來最強勁的表現，導致公司調整後息稅前利潤率為 9.7%。這比去年高出 490 個基點。作為所有這一切的結果，我們產生了 63 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

Throughout 2020, even during the industry-wide shutdown of COVID and as we prioritized the safety of our team, we've been disciplined in preparing for a high-quality fourth quarter launch: first of the 2021 F-150, you can live in it, you can work in it, you can sleep in it; the Bronco Sport, the first of many Broncos to come; and my favorite, the all-new all-electric Mustang Mach-E. In fact, we used the unanticipated downtime to continue to validate the preparations for these important launch vehicles, and in the case of the F-150, a methodical sell-down and the changeover for our current model.

整個 2020 年，即使在 COVID 的全行業停擺期間，並且由於我們優先考慮團隊的安全，我們在準備高質量的第四季度發射時一直保持自律：2021 年 F-150 的第一架，你可以住在它，你可以在裡面工作，你可以在裡面睡覺； Bronco Sport，眾多野馬中的第一個；還有我最喜歡的全新全電動 Mustang Mach-E。事實上，我們利用意外停機時間繼續驗證這些重要運載火箭的準備工作，就 F-150 而言，我們有條不紊地拋售和轉換我們當前的模型。

While I'm proud of our team, I'm delighted to say that we're in good shape in important areas of readiness for these launches. Software, the hardware engineering is done. Supplier manufacturing readiness looks great. In fact, right now, our all-new F-150s are rolling off the line in Dearborn as we speak, and production will soon start in Kansas City. And we're starting to build the Mustang Mach-E and the Bronco Sport actually early this week.

雖然我為我們的團隊感到自豪，但我很高興地說，我們在為這些發布做好準備的重要領域處於良好狀態。軟件、硬件工程都做完了。供應商的製造準備情況看起來很棒。事實上，目前，我們全新的 F-150 正在迪爾伯恩下線，堪薩斯城也將很快開始生產。我們實際上在本週早些時候開始建造 Mustang Mach-E 和 Bronco Sport。

Before I turn it over to John, I want to thank each of you for joining us today. Despite the strong numbers in the third quarter, we know we haven't fixed the issues that have held us back in our automotive business. They include warranty costs, which remain unacceptably high. I plan to be transparent and focused on both customer and shareholder value, proving out this business and our plan quarter after quarter, year after year.

在我把它交給約翰之前，我要感謝你們每一個人今天加入我們。儘管第三季度的數據強勁，但我們知道我們還沒有解決阻礙我們汽車業務發展的問題。其中包括保修成本，這仍然高得令人無法接受。我計劃保持透明並專注於客戶和股東價值，年復一年地證明這項業務和我們的計劃。

And now John, let's take everyone through details.

現在約翰，讓我們帶大家詳細了解一下。

Thanks, Jim. First, let me say what an honor it is to be the CFO of this great company. And I really can't remember a time when we've had this much opportunity to transform and grow our business. And so it's incredibly exciting, and delivering on that potential, it's an important responsibility all of us have to our customers and to our stakeholders.

謝謝，吉姆。首先，讓我說，成為這家偉大公司的首席財務官是多麼榮幸。我真的不記得我們有這麼多機會來轉變和發展我們的業務。因此，這非常令人興奮，並發揮這種潛力，這是我們所有人對客戶和利益相關者的重要責任。

Now to be clear, our transformation and growth plan is predicated on delivering an 8% or better adjusted company EBIT margin and consistently generating free cash flow so we can invest in accretive, high-return products and services. And so my initial priorities to help drive this are: one, help our team fix or dispose of underperforming parts of our business so we can allocate capital to its best and highest use; and two, further strengthen our balance sheet. We will make the tough decisions to improve our financial flexibility and ensure that we have the resources to build and grow our business.

現在要明確一點，我們的轉型和增長計劃的基礎是實現 8% 或更好的調整後公司息稅前利潤率，並持續產生自由現金流，這樣我們就可以投資於增值、高回報的產品和服務。因此，我幫助推動這一目標的最初優先事項是：第一，幫助我們的團隊修復或處置我們業務中表現不佳的部分，以便我們可以將資金分配到最佳和最高用途；第二，進一步加強我們的資產負債表。我們將做出艱難的決定，以提高我們的財務靈活性，並確保我們有資源來建立和發展我們的業務。

Now let me summarize the third quarter. As Jim mentioned, we had a strong quarter, delivering a 9.7% company adjusted EBIT margin. Now that margin was driven largely by higher-than-expected vehicle demand, positive net pricing and favorable mix as inventories were limited because of the virus-related shutdowns in the first half of the year. North America and China benefited from growth in both wholesales and revenue, while Europe, South America and our Internationals Market Group were still affected by COVID-related industry declines.

現在讓我總結第三季度。正如吉姆所說，我們有一個強勁的季度，公司調整後的息稅前利潤率為 9.7%。現在，利潤率主要是由高於預期的汽車需求、積極的淨定價和有利的組合推動的，因為今年上半年與病毒相關的停工導致庫存有限。北美和中國受益於批發和收入的增長，而歐洲、南美和我們的國際市場集團仍受到與 COVID 相關的行業下滑的影響。

In addition, our performance continues to benefit from our portfolio refresh as we reallocate capital to our franchise strengths. Ford Credit also contributed, turning in its strongest performance since 2005, generating $1.1 billion in earnings before taxes with help from strong auction values.

此外，隨著我們將資本重新分配給我們的特許經營優勢，我們的業績繼續受益於我們的投資組合更新。福特信貸也做出了貢獻，實現了自 2005 年以來的最強勁表現，在強勁的拍賣價值的幫助下產生了 11 億美元的稅前收益。

Now before I talk about the rest of our business, let me put our record $6.3 billion of adjusted free cash flow in perspective. Not only does it reflect the strength of our EBIT in the quarter, but as we indicated last quarter, working capital recovered sharply as we rebuild production to full capacity after a shutdown, largely driven by supplier payables. In the third quarter, the payable build was completed and this was worth about $4 billion.

現在，在我談論我們的其他業務之前，讓我先看看我們創紀錄的 63 億美元的調整後自由現金流。它不僅反映了我們在本季度的息稅前利潤，而且正如我們上個季度所指出的那樣，隨著我們在停產後將生產恢復到滿負荷，營運資金急劇恢復，主要是受供應商應付賬款的推動。在第三季度，應付建築已經完成，價值約 40 億美元。

The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which puts us in vital -- which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.

本季度強勁的現金流使我們有信心和能力對我們的公司左輪手槍進行第二次付款，我們在 9 月 24 日這樣做了。所以現在我們已經全額償還了全部 150 億美元的貸款，我們在第三季度結束時以強大的資產負債表，包括近 300 億美元的現金和超過 450 億美元的流動性，這使我們處於至關重要的地位——這為我們提供了我們需要的至關重要的財務靈活性。

Looking at North America. Despite the difficult backdrop of COVID, the Ford team executed well operationally. We optimized incentives for lower dealer stock levels. We maximized production and skillfully managed supply chains to meet stronger-than-expected customer demand. The region delivered an EBIT margin of 12.5% as it benefited from top line growth of 8%. EBIT improved by $1.2 billion, supported by $900 million in net pricing and $400 million in favorable volume and mix. The improvement in volume and mix reflects the effectiveness of our team in focusing on Ford's franchise strengths.

放眼北美。儘管在 COVID 的艱難背景下，福特團隊的運營表現良好。我們優化了降低經銷商庫存水平的激勵措施。我們最大限度地提高產量並巧妙地管理供應鏈，以滿足強於預期的客戶需求。該地區受益於 8% 的收入增長，息稅前利潤率為 12.5%。息稅前利潤增加了 12 億美元，這得益於 9 億美元的淨定價和 4 億美元的有利數量和組合。數量和組合的改善反映了我們團隊在專注於福特特許經營優勢方面的有效性。

A few examples include F-Series. F-Series gained 1.7 points to a share of more than 35% in the U.S. Our mix of trucks and vans increased 1 point to 57%. Our mix -- our utility mix increased 3 points to 35%, with a very strong showing from Explorer. And the mix of cars declined 4 points to just under 8%. So in total, North America share increased 1 point to 13.6%.

一些例子包括 F 系列。 F 系列增長 1.7 個百分點，在美國的份額超過 35%。我們的卡車和貨車組合增長 1 個百分點，達到 57%。我們的組合——我們的公用事業組合增加了 3 個百分點，達到 35%，Explorer 的表現非常強勁。汽車的組合下降了 4 個百分點，降至略低於 8%。因此，總體而言，北美份額增加了 1 個百分點，達到 13.6%。

In Europe, EBIT declined $300 million in the quarter, but that was driven by lower volume and about $400 million in costs related to a Kuga PHEV battery supplier issue. Those expenses included pooling costs that are required to comply with the EU's new CO2 emission standard this year.

在歐洲，本季度息稅前利潤下降了 3 億美元，但這是由於銷量下降以及與 Kuga PHEV 電池供應商問題相關的約 4 億美元成本所致。這些費用包括今年符合歐盟新二氧化碳排放標準所需的匯集成本。

Now we said earlier that we anticipated meeting those new standards based on our product road map, and the Kuga PHEV was a big part of that expectation. So we're working closely with our supplier to remediate the situation and minimize any inconveniences to our customers. We plan to notify our customers in the coming days on how and when we will repair their vehicles. And had it not been for the Kuga issue, Europe would have been profitable for the third quarter.

現在我們之前說過，我們預計根據我們的產品路線圖滿足這些新標準，而 Kuga PHEV 是這一期望的重要組成部分。因此，我們正在與我們的供應商密切合作，以糾正這種情況並儘量減少對我們客戶的任何不便。我們計劃在未來幾天通知我們的客戶我們將如何以及何時修理他們的車輛。如果不是因為 Kuga 問題，歐洲在第三季度將實現盈利。

Now since Europe began its sweeping redesign of the regional business in 2018, the European team successfully rationalized the manufacturing footprint, shifted resources to our leading position in commercial vehicles and dramatically lowered structural cost. This year, the Europe team is on track to deliver $1 billion of annual structural cost reductions. Now relative to mix, our commercial vehicle mix share increased by 50 basis points to 15.1% for the quarter, and SUVs accounted for more than 30% of our vehicle mix in Europe, nearly 9 points higher than a year ago.

自 2018 年歐洲開始對區域業務進行全面重新設計以來，歐洲團隊成功地合理化了製造足跡，將資源轉移到我們在商用車領域的領先地位，並大幅降低了結構成本。今年，歐洲團隊有望實現每年 10 億美元的結構性成本削減。現在相對於混合，我們的商用車混合份額在本季度增加了 50 個基點，達到 15.1%，SUV 占我們在歐洲車輛組合的 30% 以上，比一年前高出近 9 個百分點。

Turning to China. Wholesale shipments in China were up 22%, and that's the second consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. That reflects strong sales of SUVs and commercial vehicles. Our mix of SUVs increased 13 percentage points to 36%, and that was driven by locally-built Ford Explorer, Escape and Lincoln Aviator and Corsair, with Lincoln delivering its best-ever quarterly sales in China. And as planned, over 65% of Lincoln vehicles are now produced locally, following the introduction of the Corsair and the Aviator in the first half of 2020.

轉向中國。中國的批發出貨量增長了 22%，這是連續第二個季度同比增長。這反映了 SUV 和商用車的強勁銷售。我們的 SUV 組合增長了 13 個百分點，達到 36%，這得益於本地製造的福特 Explorer、Escape 和林肯 Aviator 以及海盜船，林肯在中國實現了有史以來最好的季度銷量。按照計劃，繼 2020 年上半年推出 Corsair 和 Aviator 之後，超過 65% 的林肯汽車現在在本地生產。

Commercial vehicle sale mix increased 5% -- 5 percentage points to 45%, and that reflects strong JMC sales, up 38% versus prior year. And that reflects the continued strong demand for light trucks, vans and pickups. So overall, the team delivered a third consecutive quarter of year-over-year share gains and marked the second consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement in EBIT, the best performance in 3 years.

商用車銷售組合增長 5%——增長 5 個百分點至 45%，這反映了江鈴汽車銷售強勁，同比增長 38%。這反映了對輕型卡車、貨車和皮卡的持續強勁需求。因此，總體而言，該團隊實現了連續第三個季度的份額同比增長，並標誌著息稅前利潤連續第二個季度同比增長，這是三年來的最佳表現。

In South America, we continued to focus on derisking the business. The team there delivered its fourth quarter in a row of year-over-year EBIT improvement, with aggressive pricing and structural cost reductions mitigating the ongoing pressure from inflation, currency and the industry structural challenges.

在南美，我們繼續專注於降低業務風險。那裡的團隊連續第四季度實現了 EBIT 同比改善，積極的定價和結構性成本降低緩解了通脹、貨幣和行業結構性挑戰帶來的持續壓力。

And in IMG, IMG delivered a profit despite COVID-related industry declines in wholesales, which adversely affected their revenue. F-Series gained share, and our share with the Ranger pickup in Australia increased 6 points to 27%. Profitability in IMG also benefited from the work the team has done to lower structural costs.

在 IMG 中，儘管與 COVID 相關的行業批發業務下滑，但 IMG 還是實現了盈利，這對其收入產生了不利影響。 F 系列獲得了份額，我們在澳大利亞的 Ranger 皮卡份額增加了 6 個百分點，達到 27%。 IMG 的盈利能力也得益於團隊為降低結構成本所做的工作。

And finally, Ford Mobility, which is building fourth generation autonomous test vehicles with the latest self-driving technology, generated its first AV-related revenue from a fleet operations pilot in Austin, Texas. And at the same time, we are strategically expanding our Spin scooter business in the U.S., the U.K. and Germany and generating strong revenue growth.

最後，正在使用最新的自動駕駛技術建造第四代自動駕駛測試車輛的福特移動，從德克薩斯州奧斯汀的車隊運營試點中獲得了第一筆與 AV 相關的收入。與此同時，我們正在戰略性地擴展我們在美國、英國和德國的 Spin 踏板車業務，並實現強勁的收入增長。

Now before taking your questions, I'll make a few comments about the fourth quarter, which assumes no meaningful change to the current economic environment, continued steady improvement in the stability of the global automotive supply base and no further significant COVID-related disruptions to production or disruptions since the third quarter. Our guidance for adjusted company EBIT for the fourth quarter is between a loss of $500 million and breakeven. Now we recognize this is a big change both sequentially and year-over-year, so I want to step through the key sequential drivers.

現在，在回答您的問題之前，我將對第四季度發表一些評論，假設當前經濟環境沒有有意義的變化，全球汽車供應基礎的穩定性持續穩步改善，並且沒有進一步與 COVID 相關的重大中斷自第三季度以來的生產或中斷。我們對第四季度調整後公司息稅前利潤的指導在虧損 5 億美元和盈虧平衡之間。現在我們認識到這是一個很大的變化，無論是連續的還是同比的，所以我想逐步介紹關鍵的連續驅動因素。

First, we expect a reduction in wholesales of about 100,000 units associated with the F-150 changeover. Now this volume effect is a result of our measured production ramp-up plan to ensure that every vehicle we wholesale is gate-released with the highest possible quality for our customers. Now to put this in context, the approximate 100,000-unit impact in the fourth quarter will far outweigh the effect of our UAW ratification bonus in Q4 of last year, which was worth about $600 million.

首先，我們預計與 F-150 轉換相關的批發量將減少約 100,000 架。現在，這種數量效應是我們衡量的產量提升計劃的結果，以確保我們批發的每輛汽車都以盡可能高的質量為我們的客戶推出。現在把這個放在上下文中，第四季度大約 100,000 單位的影響將遠遠超過我們去年第四季度價值約 6 億美元的 UAW 批准獎金的影響。

Second, we also expect higher structural and other costs from the manufacturing launch activities for the Mustang Mach-E and the Bronco Sport as well as advertising launch activities for the new products, including the all-new Bronco brand and higher material and other costs. And we expect EBT from Ford Credit to be lower sequentially, driven by strong but lower auction values and lower disposals at auction.

其次，我們還預計 Mustang Mach-E 和 Bronco Sport 的製造發布活動以及新產品的廣告發布活動會帶來更高的結構和其他成本，包括全新的 Bronco 品牌以及更高的材料和其他成本。我們預計福特信貸的 EBT 將環比下降，這是由於強勁但較低的拍賣價值和較低的拍賣處置量。

With this fourth quarter guidance, we now expect full year adjusted company EBIT to be profitable for the year. Other elements of our guidance for the year are unchanged with the exception of capital expenditures. We now expect a lower level for this year, down between $1.2 billion and $1.7 billion versus $7.6 billion in 2019, and that reflects continued efficiencies.

有了這個第四季度的指導，我們現在預計全年調整後的公司息稅前利潤將在今年實現盈利。除資本支出外，我們本年度指引的其他要素保持不變。我們現在預計今年的水平會更低，從 2019 年的 76 億美元下降 12 億美元至 17 億美元，這反映了持續的效率。

Before we move to Q&A, I want to leave you with my key takeaways from the quarter. We had better execution, choosing where to play and our restructuring is paying off. These things intersected very nicely with the stronger-than-expected demand. We know there's more to fix and we're carrying on a clear plan to do that, as Jim mentioned. And our balance sheet is solid, with nearly $30 billion of cash and over $45 billion of liquidity.

在進行問答之前，我想向您介紹本季度的主要內容。我們有更好的執行力，選擇在哪裡比賽，我們的重組正在獲得回報。這些事情與強於預期的需求相得益彰。正如吉姆所說，我們知道還有更多需要解決的問題，並且我們正在製定一個明確的計劃來解決這個問題。我們的資產負債表穩健，擁有近 300 億美元的現金和超過 450 億美元的流動性。

Now operator, let's open the line for questions.

現在接線員，讓我們打開問題線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of John Murphy, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

Congrats, Jim, for leading the call here. Interesting stuff, early days. Just a first question. As you look at the strength in the third quarter, obviously, there was great execution and some strategy around volume, mix and price that was helped by good industry dynamics. I'm just curious if you think about those 3 key factors once we get through the changeover of the F-150 in the fourth quarter and might bleed into the first quarter of next year. How much of that do you think will reverse? And as you look at what you're producing at the moment and your focused shift in mix to a richer mix, how much of this stuff can be -- how much of these beneficial factors can be maintained going into 2021 or maybe just even on a run rate basis getting into '21 specifically?

恭喜吉姆，在這裡領導了電話會議。有趣的東西，早期。只是第一個問題。當你看到第三季度的實力時，顯然，在良好的行業動態的幫助下，有很好的執行和一些圍繞數量、組合和價格的策略。我只是好奇，一旦我們在第四季度完成 F-150 的轉換並可能會延續到明年第一季度，您是否考慮這 3 個關鍵因素。你認為有多少會逆轉？當您查看您目前正在生產的產品以及您將重點轉向更豐富的組合時，這些東西可以有多少——這些有益因素中有多少可以保持到 2021 年，甚至可能只是在具體進入'21的運行率基礎？

John, thanks. So when you look at that and we look at the business this year, really getting to the core of the run rate is a bit difficult, as you can expect, given going down in the first half and then coming back up and then the launches we have for the quarter. And so from a cost standpoint, we're going to continue to focus, as we said, on making sure that we can really lean into what we need to do to improve the business, improve the underperforming parts of the business. And then when it comes to the mix and the top line, we saw some strength there. We had some wind at our back due to the strong supply -- strong demand with the short supply.

約翰，謝謝。因此，當您看到這一點並且我們查看今年的業務時，正如您所預料的那樣，真正達到運行速度的核心有點困難，因為上半年下降，然後又回升，然後是發布我們有這個季度。因此，從成本的角度來看，正如我們所說，我們將繼續專注於確保我們能夠真正依靠我們需要做的事情來改善業務，改善業務中表現不佳的部分。然後當談到混合和頂線時，我們在那裡看到了一些力量。由於供應強勁，我們有一些風向 - 需求旺盛，供應短缺。

So seeing that going forward, we've been seeing our mix improve into our strengths of trucks, SUVs, in our iconic nameplates, and we continue to expect to push that. But as far as a run rate and what we see into 2021, we're not ready to talk about that at this point. And we'll come back and we'll have more to say on that early 2021. We'll give you a read on the business then.

因此，看到這一點，我們一直在看到我們的組合在我們的標誌性銘牌中改進為我們的卡車、SUV 的優勢，我們將繼續期待推動這一點。但就運行速度和我們對 2021 年的看法而言，我們目前還沒有準備好談論這個問題。我們會回來的，我們將在 2021 年初有更多話要說。屆時我們將為您提供有關業務的信息。

Maybe a follow-up on that. I mean how much of this you think is somewhat transitory for market factors? Because you could argue right now that the industry volume is pretty -- it's relatively strong relative to peers but is not really, in absolute terms, quite that amazing. So it seems like there's an underlying demand for stronger mix than we all may have thought 6, 12, 18, 24 months ago. So I mean as you're going after this mix with this improved product, I mean, is there something that you're kind of seeing in the market, maybe just specifically even in the third quarter? Because I mean this is really heady stuff that you're running into and it's a real positive.

也許會對此進行跟進。我的意思是，您認為其中有多少對於市場因素來說是暫時的？因為你現在可以爭辯說這個行業的銷量相當不錯——相對於同行來說它相對強勁，但從絕對意義上來說，並不是真的那麼驚人。因此，似乎存在比我們所有人在 6、12、18、24 個月前可能想像的更強勁組合的潛在需求。所以我的意思是，當你在追求這種改進產品的組合時，我的意思是，你是否在市場上看到了一些東西，甚至可能只是在第三季度？因為我的意思是，這真的是你遇到的令人興奮的事情，而且它是一個真正的積極因素。

Yes, it is a positive. You see strength there. The question is there was an imbalance in supply and demand, and that gave us some of the tailwind. But we also are seeing, over time, as we've, over the last 2 years, made the concerted effort to shift into our strength of commercial vehicles and trucks. And you see that in Europe, you see that here and you see that around the world. So we do see strength there. As far as how far that extends and what that looks like, we're not ready to comment on that now but we do see strength there.

是的，這是積極的。你在那裡看到了力量。問題是供需失衡，這給了我們一些順風。但我們也看到，隨著時間的推移，正如我們在過去兩年中所做的那樣，齊心協力轉向我們的商用車和卡車優勢。你在歐洲看到，在這裡看到，在世界各地看到。所以我們確實看到了那裡的力量。至於延伸的範圍和外觀，我們現在還沒有準備好對此發表評論，但我們確實看到了那裡的力量。

Okay. And then maybe just one last question. On lease deferrals, I mean, how many leases did you defer in the second quarter that came back in the third quarter or might come back in the coming quarters? And sort of in addition to that, when you see auction volumes or auction values, I should say, being very strong, how long do you expect that to continue? Because it just seems like there's a lot of positive news on these lease deferrals as well as what's going on in the used vehicle market that's helping out not just Ford Motor Credit but the core new vehicle business as well.

好的。然後也許只是最後一個問題。關於租約延期，我的意思是，您在第二季度推遲了多少租約，而這些租約在第三季度又回來了，或者可能在未來幾個季度回來？除此之外，當你看到拍賣量或拍賣價值時，我應該說，非常強大，你預計這種情況會持續多久？因為似乎有很多關於這些租賃延期的積極消息，以及二手車市場正在發生的事情，這不僅有助於福特汽車信貸，還有助於核心新車業務。

John, this is Marion Harris. We did a bunch of payment extensions for loans and leases. But if you're referring to lease deferrals for lease-in where a unit comes back to auction, we didn't really do many of those. And we had a pretty big inventory of used vehicles going into the third quarter. And as we sold those units into an improving market, that's really what was the real benefit for Ford Credit.

約翰，這是瑪麗恩·哈里斯。我們為貸款和租賃做了很多付款延期。但是，如果您指的是單位重新拍賣的租賃延期，那麼我們並沒有真正做很多這樣的事情。進入第三季度，我們有大量二手車庫存。當我們將這些單位出售給不斷改善的市場時，這才是福特信貸真正的好處。

If you were talking about payment extensions though, of the -- we extended about 11% of our retail loan and lease portfolio. And of that, about 99% of those have already made a payment. And we're back to pre-pandemic levels of extensions.

但是，如果您談論的是延期付款，那麼我們擴展了大約 11% 的零售貸款和租賃組合。其中，大約 99% 的人已經付款。我們又回到了大流行前的擴展水平。

Okay. So as far as what you're selling in the auctions right now, it's normal run rate of lease returns flowing directly into auctions and no edge or flows or flows or pulls -- tugs or pulls by you?

好的。因此，就您現在在拍賣中出售的東西而言，這是直接流入拍賣的正常租金回報率，沒有優勢或流動或流動或拉動——由您拉扯或拉動？

Yes, that's correct. We're back in normal inventory.

對，那是正確的。我們恢復了正常的庫存。

And our next question will come from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Congratulations on the performance in the quarter. I hope it is a sign of things to come. I had 3 questions for you. Number one, Jim, you've talked about 10% margin target for North America for some time, and now you've shown that you can get there. Obviously, Q4, this launch phase will be a bit challenging. But could you talk a little bit about what you're thinking about as the time line for getting to that kind of a target more sustainably?

祝賀本季度的表現。我希望這是即將發生的事情的徵兆。我有 3 個問題要問你。第一，吉姆，你談到北美 10% 的利潤目標已經有一段時間了，現在你已經證明你可以做到。顯然，第四季度，這個發布階段會有點挑戰。但是你能談談你認為更可持續地實現這種目標的時間線嗎？

Secondly, I noticed that the warranty costs moderated a bit, at least the cost inflation moderated. Is that a sign that things are finally peaking?

其次，我注意到保修成本有所緩和，至少成本膨脹有所緩和。這是否表明事情終於達到頂峰？

And then lastly, the drumbeat of activity in electrification obviously is something everyone's hearing, and companies are laying out some pretty aggressive targets for cost reduction in volumes. The Mach-E looks great but it's still a relatively low-volume product. Can you just talk a little bit about what your thinking is and how your thinking has evolved on what kind of volumes you're anticipating or how aggressively you intend to move into electrification on some of those commercial products?

最後，電氣化活動的鼓點顯然是每個人都能聽到的，公司正在製定一些相當激進的目標來降低產量。 Mach-E 看起來很棒，但它仍然是一款相對小批量的產品。您能否簡單談談您的想法是什麼，以及您的想法在您預期的數量或您打算如何積極地在其中一些商業產品上實現電氣化？

Yes. Thanks, Rod. On North America, I think it's really important for us to be clear, turn around our automotive operations and North America needs to absolutely be at 10-plus percent. As you can see from the pricing and the mix, I think Ford is the strongest brand in the U.S. industry, mainstream brand on pricing and mix. Our issue in North America is cost and growth. On cost, it's really isolated to material cost, which is tied to that higher pricing, of course, and warranty. Warranty in the last few years, coverage is up $1 billion to $2 billion depending on the year, and that is not okay.

是的。謝謝，羅德。在北美，我認為對我們來說清楚，扭轉我們的汽車業務非常重要，北美絕對需要達到 10% 以上。從定價和組合可以看出，我認為福特是美國行業最強的品牌，定價和組合的主流品牌。我們在北美的問題是成本和增長。在成本方面，它確實與材料成本無關，當然，這與更高的定價和保修有關。過去幾年的保修，根據年份的不同，保險範圍增加了 10 億美元到 20 億美元，這是不行的。

So although it moderated in the quarter and we have taken a lot of actions on craftsmanship, long-term durability, we have a much bigger ambition to improve the quality of our vehicles. We have taken a lot of countermeasures. They will take time. I'm happy to go into those, if you'd like. But I would say our North America 10% is really a cost journey for us because on the growth side, we have a whole new Bronco lineup coming, a brand-new F-Series coming. These are fantastic opportunities for us on the top line for the next many years to come. So our journey to get to 10% is a cost.

因此，儘管它在本季度有所緩和，並且我們在工藝、長期耐用性方面採取了很多措施，但我們有更大的雄心來提高我們的車輛質量。我們採取了很多應對措施。他們需要時間。如果你願意，我很高興參與其中。但我想說，我們在北美的 10% 對我們來說確實是一次成本之旅，因為在增長方面，我們有一個全新的 Bronco 陣容即將推出，全新的 F 系列即將推出。這些對我們來說是未來許多年在頂線上的絕佳機會。所以我們達到 10% 的旅程是有代價的。

On electrification, I want to cover that one next because it's quite important. There's been a lot written about the electrification of our industry. And Ford's bet is different. We're betting on a full lineup of commercial electrified vehicles. We're building a plant at the Rouge. We are the #1 nameplate in the U.S. industry. We sell over 1 million F-Series. We have an enormous customer base who are looking to reduce their costs. And so I'm not going to get into forecasting the volumes, but we really see in this first inning of electrification, and it will be a long game that plays out over many years, that we have tremendous volume opportunity.

關於電氣化，我想在下一個討論，因為它非常重要。有很多關於我們行業電氣化的文章。而福特的賭注則不同。我們押注於商用電動汽車的完整陣容。我們正在 Rouge 建廠。我們是美國行業的第一名。我們售出超過 100 萬台 F 系列。我們擁有龐大的客戶群，他們正在尋求降低成本。因此，我不打算預測銷量，但我們確實在電氣化的第一局中看到，這將是一場持續多年的漫長游戲，我們擁有巨大的銷量機會。

We are not going after the $100,000-plus market. These are affordable vehicles. They're in the key price points in the U.S., the Mach-E between $45,000 and $70,000 2-row crossovers, huge addressable market here in Western Europe. And in commercial, we're not planning a very exclusive, small 1% of the addressable U.S. industry. We're talking about these vehicles being 10-plus percent of the revenue pool in North America at their price. So they look great financially for us.

我們不會追逐 100,000 美元以上的市場。這些是負擔得起的車輛。它們處於美國的關鍵價位，Mach-E 在 45,000 美元到 70,000 美元之間的 2 排跨界車，在西歐有巨大的潛在市場。在商業方面，我們並沒有計劃在美國的可尋址行業中佔據非常獨特的、很小的 1%。我們正在談論這些車輛以它們的價格在北美的收入池中佔 10% 以上。所以他們對我們來說在財務上看起來很棒。

But I guess we aren't looking at electrification for the propulsion. We think the real change here is the connectivity and to run a business based on the data. So the upgraded electric architectures in the Mach-E and the F-150 electric, to me, is the most important because it allows us to reduce our costs inside the company and give customers a totally different experience. And your middle question?

但我想我們並沒有考慮推進電氣化。我們認為這裡真正的變化是連接性和基於數據開展業務。因此，對我來說，升級後的 Mach-E 和 F-150 電動架構是最重要的，因為它使我們能夠降低公司內部的成本並為客戶提供完全不同的體驗。你的中間問題？

Yes. The warranty cost, is this a sign that you're starting to get your arms around that and that it's going to start -- that there's visibility on when that's going to start coming back down?

是的。保修成本，這是否表明您開始著手處理它並且它將開始 - 可以看到何時開始恢復？

We have more work to do, that's all I'll say. We are not satisfied with the quality run rate. It may be coming down but that's not what we're targeting. We're targeting a fully competitive level of warranty spend on coverages, and that's got lots of zeros next to it.

我們還有更多的工作要做，這就是我要說的。我們對質量運行率不滿意。它可能會下降，但這不是我們的目標。我們的目標是在保險範圍內實現完全有競爭力的保修支出水平，並且旁邊有很多零。

To do that, Rod, there's a couple of things the team has decided to double down on. For suppliers who ship us bad parts, we're going to have punitive financial. I mean if they're bad shippers for multiple times. We put more resources in our plants for supplier quality. We have a lot more resources dedicated and a ton of transparency on quality issues that are open for more than 30 days in the company. It's a key metric that we drive our management team to. So those are the kind of changes we made. And I wouldn't say this quarter is anything that we're proud of.

為了做到這一點，羅德，球隊決定在幾件事上加倍努力。對於向我們運送壞零件的供應商，我們將受到懲罰性的財務處罰。我的意思是，如果他們多次成為糟糕的托運人。我們在工廠投入更多資源以提高供應商質量。我們有更多的專用資源和大量的透明度，在公司內開放了 30 多天的質量問題。這是我們推動管理團隊達到的關鍵指標。所以這些就是我們所做的改變。我不會說這個季度是我們引以為豪的事情。

Okay. And just to clarify, Jim, you didn't really provide a time line on getting to sustainably -- a sustainable 10% or better margin. You said that you've got visibility on the revenue side and you still have work to do on the cost side. So is there line of sight for you on that? It seems like the product side and the revenue side for North America looks pretty powerful as you look out to next year.

好的。澄清一下，吉姆，你並沒有真正提供實現可持續發展的時間表——可持續的 10% 或更高的利潤率。你說你在收入方面已經有了知名度，但在成本方面你還有工作要做。那麼你有視線嗎？展望明年，北美的產品方面和收入方面似乎非常強大。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. We'll follow up offline.

好的。我們會線下跟進。

Our next question will come from the line of Emmanuel Rosner, Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

Jim and John, first, congratulations on your new roles. And Jim, certainly very encouraged by your commitment to transparency and measurable improvements. So I guess in that spirit, when we look, I guess, at your performance in the quarter, the size for the stronger demand, pricing mix, which you commented on, are you able to point us to measurable areas of underlying cost improvement that you've seen, whether it is on these material freight? We spoke a little bit -- you spoke a little bit about warranty on the structural side. Anything that's already bearing some fruits that you're excited about? Or should we think about it more as an opportunity for the future?

首先，Jim 和 John 祝賀你們擔任新角色。吉姆，您對透明度和可衡量改進的承諾當然非常鼓舞。因此，我想本著這種精神，當我們查看您在本季度的表現時，您所評論的強勁需求的規模，定價組合，您是否能夠指出我們潛在的成本改進的可衡量領域？你見過，是否是關於這些材料的運費？我們談了一點——你談了一點關於結構方面的保修。任何已經結出令你興奮的成果的東西？還是我們應該將其更多地視為未來的機會？

Yes. Emmanuel, thank you. When you look at that, when you look at the cost performance for the quarter, you really look at what we talked about with Europe is all the restructuring they've done, the headcount that they've taken out, they're now approaching and they will approach this year that $1 billion of structural cost reductions. And so we saw that flow through, that's coming through and that's going to continue to come through. What the team has done in South America in restructuring the business down there, getting out of low profitable vehicles, selling the São Bernardo plant and all the actions they've taken on their structure and headcount, that's going to continue to flow through.

是的。伊曼紐爾，謝謝。當你看到這一點時，當你查看本季度的成本表現時，你真的會看到我們與歐洲談論的內容是他們所做的所有重組，他們已經裁員，他們現在正在接近他們將在今年接近 10 億美元的結構性成本削減。所以我們看到了這種流動，它正在發生，而且會繼續發生。該團隊在南美所做的業務重組、擺脫低利潤車輛、出售 São Bernardo 工廠以及他們對結構和員工人數採取的所有行動，這些將繼續通過.

And then we saw good performance out of International Markets Group this quarter. They were profitable, and a lot of that -- most of that was driven on the back of structural cost reductions. As far as what we saw here in North America, I think with the strength that we had in demand, the short supply, we saw some good news come through in areas that you'd expect like advertising, et cetera. So we have to see how demand and supply balance out and what happens there. And as Jim said, we have a lot of work to do on our cost structure here in North America. And that's going to be one of our key focuses.

然後我們看到本季度國際市場集團的良好表現。他們是有利可圖的，其中很多——其中大部分是在結構性成本降低的背景下推動的。就我們在北美看到的情況而言，我認為憑藉我們的需求強勁和供應短缺，我們在廣告等領域看到了一些好消息。所以我們必須看看需求和供應是如何平衡的，以及那裡會發生什麼。正如吉姆所說，我們在北美的成本結構方面還有很多工作要做。這將是我們的重點之一。

So I guess you gave a little bit of color on the -- what needs to be done on the warranty side and the quality side. What is being done or can be done? I don't need the quantification but just in terms of what is it required to get the material and freight piece of it down. Looks like this is probably 1 of the 2 largest buckets on the cost side here.

所以我猜你在保修方面和質量方面需要做些什麼。正在做什麼或可以做什麼？我不需要量化，而只需要將材料和貨運部分降低下來。看起來這可能是成本方面最大的 2 個存儲桶之一。

So thanks for your question. On the material cost side, it's kind of everywhere. A good example would be we have a proximity key in your pocket to unlock the door in all 4 doors of the F-150. When we look at the vehicle usage data, we found that people use the proximity sensor for the front 2 doors. We do not need a proximity sensor in the rear 2 doors. Our jack on the F-150 looks like it will last about 50 years. That's not the case for our competitors. So it's everything from the way we package our features, the actual bill of material, and the team has been working through all these opportunities since February. We made progress but we need to make a lot more progress, especially with the more expensive launch vehicles.

所以謝謝你的問題。在材料成本方面，它無處不在。一個很好的例子是我們在您的口袋裡有一把感應鑰匙，可以解鎖 F-150 的所有 4 個車門。當我們查看車輛使用數據時，我們發現人們使用前兩扇門的接近傳感器。我們不需要後 2 扇門中的接近傳感器。我們在 F-150 上的千斤頂看起來可以使用大約 50 年。對於我們的競爭對手來說，情況並非如此。因此，從我們打包功能的方式到實際的物料清單，以及團隊自 2 月以來一直在努力應對所有這些機會，一切都是如此。我們取得了進展，但我們需要取得更多進展，尤其是在更昂貴的運載火箭方面。

And I think the real enabler is going to be complexity reduction. We've been talking about complexity reduction for -- as a company for quite some time as a key fitness for the leadership team, but we have a lot more work to do on complexity reduction. And that will be a huge enabler for not only our manufacturing operations but also our material cost.

我認為真正的推動力將是降低複雜性。我們一直在談論降低複雜性——作為一家公司，作為領導團隊的關鍵適應性已經有一段時間了，但我們在降低複雜性方面還有很多工作要做。這不僅對我們的製造業務，而且對我們的材料成本來說都是一個巨大的推動因素。

And then finally, there was no specific guidance on free cash flow for the fourth quarter. I think at the last earnings call, the idea was that third quarter free cash flow would be better than the EBIT but fourth quarter worse than fourth quarter EBIT. Any sort of sense you can give us on how to think about this quarter's free cash flow and whether there will be some sort of timing or working capital payback from the strength that we've seen in the third quarter?

最後，沒有關於第四季度自由現金流的具體指導。我認為在上次財報電話會議上，想法是第三季度的自由現金流會好於 EBIT，但第四季度會比第四季度的 EBIT 差。關於如何考慮本季度的自由現金流，以及我們在第三季度看到的強勁勢頭是否會在某種時機或營運資金上得到回報，您能給我們任何一種感覺嗎？

Standpoint -- in the quarter, we got payables back to what we would say is a normal run rate. And so from a standpoint of the guidance on the cash flow for the quarter, for the fourth quarter, it's going to -- like we had said with EBIT, it's going to be driven by EBIT. So we haven't given a specific number on that. And at this point, I'm not sure we're going to do that today.

立場——在本季度，我們將應付賬款恢復到我們所說的正常運行率。因此，從本季度現金流指導的角度來看，對於第四季度，它將 - 就像我們在 EBIT 中所說的那樣，它將由 EBIT 驅動。所以我們沒有給出具體的數字。在這一點上，我不確定我們今天是否會這樣做。

Our next question will come from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Jim, I got a few questions for you. I think you mentioned the phrase that EVs look great financially, I think, when you're looking out, that they seem to line up well financially. Could you elaborate on that? My understanding is that EVs present a really great opportunity to decomplexify the vehicle, even allowing for the expensive battery costs, the things that you can remove from an EV and the way you can design a lot more efficiently relative to the spider web of complexity of the internal combustion mechanism, that -- and it's a great opportunity. Am I correct in that assumption? And I just didn't know if -- I wanted to hear if you could add some color to that hypothesis.

吉姆，我有幾個問題要問你。我認為您提到了電動汽車在財務上看起來很棒的短語，我認為，當您向外看時，它們似乎在財務上排列良好。你能詳細說明一下嗎？我的理解是，電動汽車為車輛的複雜性提供了一個非常好的機會，即使考慮到昂貴的電池成本，你可以從電動汽車上移除的東西，以及相對於復雜的蜘蛛網，你可以更有效地設計的方式內燃機制，這是一個很好的機會。我的假設是否正確？而且我只是不知道是否- 我想听聽您是否可以為該假設添加一些顏色。

Sure. Thank you. I guess the 3 key messages for our electrification strategy of the company is we're going after very large addressable markets and profit pools and we're playing to our strengths. I'll come back to your question. The second is to turn battery electrics into a digital kind of service model, not just a propulsion system, and that we're in the first inning. And the second inning is going to be quite important for the company to transition as well.

當然。謝謝你。我想我們公司電氣化戰略的三個關鍵信息是我們正在追求非常大的潛在市場和利潤池，我們正在發揮我們的優勢。我會回到你的問題。第二個是將電池電力轉變為一種數字服務模型，而不僅僅是一個推進系統，而且我們處於第一局。第二局對於公司的轉型也非常重要。

Related to the cost, initially, several years ago when we made these investments and decisions, the cost of the battery, the profitability of the vehicles is really challenging. What we found since then, once we started to look at the real cost of CO2 of our internal combustion engine, when we started to look at -- in commercial terms, offering bidirectional charging, bringing charging to the job site and electricity job site, we started to realize that there's a lot more revenue opportunity, a lot lower cost than marketing because of the connected services. And of course, the cost, the way Hau and the team looked at the cost of our battery, we used kind of a temporary overcapacity situation to get very competitive cost and also cherry-picked the best chemistry out there.

與成本相關，最初，幾年前當我們做出這些投資和決策時，電池成本、車輛的盈利能力確實具有挑戰性。從那時起我們發現，一旦我們開始研究我們內燃機的二氧化碳的實際成本，當我們開始研究——從商業角度來看，提供雙向充電，將充電帶到工作現場和電力工作現場，我們開始意識到，由於連接的服務，有更多的收入機會，比營銷成本低得多。當然，成本，Hau 和團隊看待我們電池成本的方式，我們使用了一種暫時的產能過剩情況來獲得非常有競爭力的成本，並且還挑選了最好的化學物質。

All that kind of came together with much more compelling financial picture for these first cycle products. I think that's what I was referring to when you look at the all-in comparison to ICE, also the revenue opportunity. We had never really -- when we got into the commercial world of electrification, I think we -- our eyes were very open and very informed by the aluminum investment in F-150, that people are willing to pay, in the case of lightweighting, more than just the lightweighting, fuel economy. It's a commercial vehicle for towing and payload. When you think about bringing energy to the job site or bidirectional charging for small, medium-sized business, it's kind of a game-changer for them in terms of -- and for us for revenue. I hope that makes sense.

所有這些都與這些第一周期產品的更具吸引力的財務狀況相結合。我認為這就是我在與 ICE 進行全面比較時所指的，也是收入機會。我們從來沒有真正 - 當我們進入電氣化的商業世界時，我想我們 - 我們的眼睛非常開闊，並且非常了解對 F-150 的鋁投資，人們願意支付，在輕量化的情況下，不僅僅是輕量化，燃油經濟性。它是一種用於牽引和有效載荷的商用車輛。當您考慮為工作現場帶來能量或為中小型企業雙向收費時，這對他們來說是一種改變遊戲規則的方式——對我們來說也是一種收入。我希望這是有道理的。

Yes, it does. And you seem to have for -- even before you became CEO, express a lot of enthusiasm towards the software, services, the data opportunity for the company. I think you said you want to run the business based on the data. Can you be specific on what services get you most excited and when that can be material?

是的，它確實。而且你似乎有——甚至在你成為首席執行官之前，就對公司的軟件、服務和數據機會表達了極大的熱情。我想你說過你想根據數據來經營業務。您能否具體說明哪些服務最讓您興奮，什麼時候會很重要？

Yes. Great question. So first of all, it starts with the talent. We attracted Alex Purdy from Deere, who went through the whole Deere journey, moving to software and data. We attracted Gil, who's now our data analytics lead. We now have -- we've had the talent on board for enough time. We really understand the opportunity. I think the opportunity first came, Adam, with internal, the company. You can imagine with our warranty -- the data codes off the vehicle instantaneously having AI models, analyzing all those data codes, how exciting that is to our frontline engineers, how exciting it is to have that data be available to all of our engineers on actually the bill of material and its usefulness for a company that has very expensive bill of material.

是的。好問題。所以首先，從人才開始。我們吸引了來自 Deere 的 Alex Purdy，他經歷了 Deere 的整個旅程，轉向軟件和數據。我們吸引了 Gil，他現在是我們的數據分析主管。我們現在有 - 我們已經有足夠的時間在船上的人才。我們非常了解這個機會。我認為機會首先來了，亞當，公司內部。您可以通過我們的保修來想像——車輛上的數據代碼會立即擁有 AI 模型，分析所有這些數據代碼，這對我們的一線工程師來說是多麼令人興奮，讓我們的所有工程師都可以使用這些數據是多麼令人興奮實際上是物料清單及其對擁有非常昂貴物料清單的公司的用處。

But then it became very quick for us, especially when we got outside of Dearborn and listened to the opportunity on services that over-the-air updates that are really relevant to the customer. In the case of commercial, they run their businesses off these vehicles. So dynamic routing, telematics, driver coaching to drive more economically. The people that have our small fleets, they just love this because they haven't had that data before. And we can see a day, not too distant future, with a full lineup of pure battery electric commercials, where we have a whole service business.

但後來對我們來說變得非常快，特別是當我們離開迪爾伯恩並聽取與客戶真正相關的無線更新服務的機會時。在商業的情況下，他們通過這些車輛開展業務。因此，動態路由、遠程信息處理、駕駛員指導可以更經濟地駕駛。擁有我們小型車隊的人們，他們只是喜歡這個，因為他們以前沒有這些數據。我們可以看到，在不遠的將來，純電池電動廣告陣容齊全，我們擁有完整的服務業務。

And that service business is charging. It's small -- enterprise solutions for small, medium-sized businesses. It's repair -- a more affordable repair and upgrade of the physical vehicle. And that's what we're busy doing. That's our double transformation. One is to transform our automotive operations. The other one is, in a way, to kind of disrupt ourselves.

該服務業務正在收費。它是小型的——面向中小型企業的企業解決方案。這是維修——對實體車輛進行更實惠的維修和升級。這就是我們正忙於做的事情。這就是我們的雙重轉變。一是轉變我們的汽車業務。在某種程度上，另一個是擾亂我們自己。

And our next question is going to come from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Thanks for taking my question, which relates to the upcoming F-150 launch. Can you remind us of the timing and the impact you expect, both in terms of the profit or margin headwind from the lower production during the changeover as well as the benefit to sales mix or pricing subsequent to the rollout of the new version? And how should investors think about execution risk during the launch? Can you talk about your confidence level there and that will go according to plan and what steps that maybe you're taking to mitigate the risks?

感謝您提出與即將推出的 F-150 相關的問題。您能否提醒我們您期望的時機和影響，包括轉換期間產量下降帶來的利潤或利潤率逆風，以及新版本推出後對銷售組合或定價的好處？以及投資者應該如何看待上市過程中的執行風險？您能否談談您在那裡的信心水平，這將按計劃進行，以及您可能正在採取哪些措施來降低風險？

Coming in, I'll answer the last question first on the product launch. We've spent a lot of time on these launches as they're very important, as you understand, and making sure we have all the design and engineering ready to go. We've made all the checkpoints. The suppliers are ready, manufacturing is ready, and we started that production. We haven't discussed what we expect from a pricing standpoint or what we expect from a margin standpoint on a new truck, and I don't think we want to talk about that today. But what we did talk about is the fact that we are taking a very pragmatic ramp-up plan to make sure that we deliver these with quality.

進來，我先回答產品發布的最後一個問題。正如您所理解的，我們在這些發布上花費了很多時間，因為它們非常重要，並確保我們準備好所有的設計和工程。我們已經完成了所有的檢查點。供應商準備好了，製造準備好了，我們開始了生產。我們還沒有討論從定價的角度來看我們對新卡車的期望是什麼，或者從利潤的角度來看我們對一輛新卡車的期望是什麼，我認為我們今天不想談論這個。但我們確實談到了這樣一個事實，即我們正在採取一個非常務實的升級計劃，以確保我們提供高質量的產品。

And that's leading us to have wholesales, on a sequential basis, down about 100,000 units, and that's what's impacting the fourth quarter. But getting any deeper than that, I'm not sure we're going to get into that today as far as the pricing and the cost impact of the vehicle.

這導致我們的批發量環比下降約 100,000 台，這就是影響第四季度的原因。但比這更深入，我不確定我們今天是否會深入探討車輛的定價和成本影響。

And as far as the launch, to complement John, we are so excited about this new F-150, all-new powertrains, best towing, best payload. It's the best F-150 we've ever had. And wait until you see the inside. It's incredible, the technology. And customers are asking us for that. Look, we've completed the design phase, the engineering phase. Hau and the team did a great job. And we then finished the supplier readiness and manufacturing readiness.

至於發射，作為對約翰的補充，我們對這款全新的 F-150、全新的動力系統、最佳牽引力、最佳有效載荷感到非常興奮。這是我們擁有過的最好的 F-150。等到你看到裡面。太不可思議了，技術。客戶要求我們這樣做。看，我們已經完成了設計階段，工程階段。 Hau 和他的團隊做得很好。然後我們完成了供應商準備和製造準備。

My whole leadership team and myself went to both plants personally to review the launches a couple of times. And we're now in high production, starting the ramp-up curve at Dearborn and Kansas City. We expect to start soon. I think we don't know until we start getting up that ramp curve what we're going to see. But I'd say one of the things I would complement the Ford team, Hau, Linda Cash, the whole team, was the way we used COVID. During the COVID shutdown, we didn't stop with the quality assessment of the launch. And there was a lot of work done on the software especially. This is an all-new electrical architecture for us. There's a ton of new software. And we used that downtime to really prove out our capability.

我和我的整個領導團隊都親自去這兩家工廠審查了幾次發布。我們現在處於高產量狀態，在迪爾伯恩和堪薩斯城開始了爬坡曲線。我們預計很快就會開始。我認為，直到我們開始爬上斜坡曲線，我們才會知道我們會看到什麼。但我想說，我要補充福特團隊、Hau、Linda Cash 整個團隊的一件事，就是我們使用 COVID 的方式。在 COVID 關閉期間，我們並沒有停止對發射的質量評估。特別是在軟件上做了很多工作。這對我們來說是一種全新的電氣架構。有很多新軟件。我們利用這段停機時間來真正證明我們的能力。

And so we're a long way from declaring victory. It's a daily huge global team working on the F-150 launch. But we've worked through the launch so far. We've made a lot of progress as a team and now we're into mass production. So stay tuned.

所以我們離宣布勝利還有很長的路要走。這是一個每天都在為 F-150 發射工作的龐大的全球團隊。但到目前為止，我們已經完成了發布。作為一個團隊，我們已經取得了很大的進步，現在我們正在進入量產階段。所以請繼續關注。

Okay. That's great. And then lastly, wanted to ask about the strong net pricing that you've been enjoying in Europe and South America. Can you talk about how you think your net pricing is tracking relative to the industry in those regions? And is the pricing strength more a function of the success of your company-specific product launches? Or are there other more macro factors at play, for example, as automakers work to offset lower FX in South America, et cetera? Where are you in terms of your product life cycles in these regions? And how should we expect pricing to track going forward?

好的。那太棒了。最後，想問一下您在歐洲和南美享受的強勁淨定價。您能否談談您認為您的淨定價相對於這些地區的行業是如何跟踪的？定價強度是否更多地取決於您公司特定產品發布的成功？或者還有其他更宏觀的因素在起作用，例如，汽車製造商努力抵消南美較低的外匯等因素？您在這些地區的產品生命週期處於什麼位置？以及我們應該如何期望定價跟踪未來？

Yes. So if you -- let's just unpack that a little bit. If you look at Europe, we've had a strong shift into our SUVs, as we talked about earlier. And with that has come pricing power relative to the other vehicle lines, and we expect that to continue in Europe. Down in South America, the team is being aggressive. And you're seeing product shift there that's driving some of the net pricing as well, the strength in pricing because we're getting out of low-profit lower-end vehicles, and we're being very focused on driving towards higher-margin products like Ranger and some of the other strengths that we have in the region. So we're going to see that continue through.

是的。因此，如果您- 讓我們稍微拆開包裝。如果你看看歐洲，正如我們之前談到的，我們已經大力轉向我們的 SUV。隨之而來的是相對於其他車輛系列的定價能力，我們預計這種情況將在歐洲繼續存在。在南美，球隊正在積極進取。而且你看到那裡的產品轉移也推動了一些淨定價，定價的力量，因為我們正在擺脫低利潤的低端汽車，我們非常專注於推動更高的利潤率Ranger 等產品以及我們在該地區擁有的其他一些優勢。因此，我們將看到這種情況繼續下去。

And then we're -- in Europe, they're managing through revenue management and looking at everything. We're doing the same thing here in North America. It's a focus we have, but a lot of it's being driven by our strong mix. We are seeing some pricing for product as new products coming out, and that's flowing through as well. So we're very focused on driving the top line as best we can but equally and more focused on the cost, as Jim's talked about and as we've talked about. That's one of our main focuses, keep moving forward on the top line and really hone in and focus in on getting the cost right.

然後我們 - 在歐洲，他們通過收入管理進行管理並查看所有內容。我們在北美做同樣的事情。這是我們的一個重點，但很多都是由我們強大的組合驅動的。隨著新產品的推出，我們看到了一些產品定價，而且這種定價也在不斷變化。因此，我們非常專注於盡我們所能提高收入，但同樣也更加關注成本，正如吉姆所說的那樣，正如我們已經談到的那樣。這是我們的主要關注點之一，在頂線上繼續前進，並真正磨練並專注於使成本正確。

Our next question is going to come from the line of Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的馬克德萊尼。

Jim and John, you spoke to having urgency at achieving your goals in electrification that includes an electric F-150 and Transit as a few of the several electrified models that Ford is planning to bring to market over the next few years. Hoping to better understand if the company plans to go beyond its $11.5 billion investment target in electrification that was previously articulated. And does Ford plan to increase, in particular, the number of BEV models compared to its prior expectation?

吉姆和約翰，你們談到了實現電氣化目標的緊迫性，其中包括電動 F-150 和全順作為福特計劃在未來幾年內推向市場的幾款電動車型中的一些。希望更好地了解該公司是否計劃超越其此前提出的 115 億美元電氣化投資目標。與之前的預期相比，福特是否計劃特別增加 BEV 車型的數量？

Thanks. I think the simple way to look at it is we're kind of in the first inning of this transition of the industry to a battery electric future, and we're deep into the planning for the second cycle of those products. Competitive reasons, we're not going to share the cycle plan with you, but you can imagine that we're getting more and more excited about an electric future. Now we have some great ICE products. And we think that, that market will still be robust. But we're making our bets on iconic retail vehicles. And electric is definitely something that we're more and more excited about and our capital is following.

謝謝。我認為簡單的看待它的方式是，我們處於行業向電池電力未來過渡的第一局，我們正在深入規劃這些產品的第二個週期。出於競爭原因，我們不會與您分享自行車計劃，但您可以想像我們對電動未來越來越興奮。現在我們有一些很棒的 ICE 產品。我們認為，這個市場仍然很強勁。但我們將賭注押在標誌性的零售車輛上。電動絕對是我們越來越興奮的東西，我們的資本也在追隨。

We don't want to just be one of the many OEMs to transition to electric. We want to lead the electric change. That's why we've committed to Paris. That's why we're standing with California. And that's in our capital. And we feel that the way we're doing it at Ford is the most important message, which is commercial and work.

我們不想成為眾多向電動轉型的 OEM 之一。我們希望引領電氣變革。這就是我們致力於巴黎的原因。這就是我們與加利福尼亞站在一起的原因。那是在我們的首都。我們認為我們在福特的做法是最重要的信息，即商業和工作。

Those customers run their business on these vehicles. They're more attentive to cost of ownership. The vehicles have higher utilization, and therefore, the lower cost of ownership of operation is more important to them. And they're especially interested in the data. And so I think although we could talk about general investment levels, the key message for Ford is more of the segments that we're investing in and that this is not a propulsion story. This is an investment in the digitization of our business.

這些客戶在這些車輛上開展業務。他們更關注擁有成本。車輛具有更高的利用率，因此，較低的運營擁有成本對他們來說更為重要。他們對數據特別感興趣。所以我認為雖然我們可以談論一般的投資水平，但福特的關鍵信息是更多我們正在投資的細分市場，這不是一個推進故事。這是對我們業務數字化的投資。

That's very helpful. And the company commented that because of the Kuga recall, the company will now have CO2 compliance cost this year. Are you anticipating a similar level of cost in the fourth quarter as was realized in 3Q? And then perhaps more importantly, can you discuss if you think this issue will be resolved and if there's risk to any of your other hybrid or BEV products?

這很有幫助。該公司評論說，由於 Kuga 召回，該公司今年將有二氧化碳合規成本。您是否預計第四季度的成本水平與第三季度相似？然後也許更重要的是，您能否討論一下您是否認為這個問題會得到解決，以及您的任何其他混合動力或 BEV 產品是否存在風險？

So from a cost standpoint, I'll start with that. As I said earlier, it's about $400 million for the quarter. We do expect some costs in the fourth quarter somewhere between $100 million to $200 million. So that's the impact we see as it is today. And that does also -- that includes the impact of the pooling effort that we're going to have to undertake for passenger vehicles in Europe.

所以從成本的角度來看，我將從這個開始。正如我之前所說，本季度約為 4 億美元。我們確實預計第四季度的一些成本在 1 億至 2 億美元之間。這就是我們今天看到的影響。這也確實 - 這包括我們將不得不為歐洲乘用車進行的集中努力的影響。

And the battery that is used in the Kuga PHEV is not (inaudible) so it's a supply (inaudible).

Kuga PHEV 中使用的電池不是（聽不清），所以它是電源（聽不清）。

And our next question will come from the line of Brian Johnson, Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

Congratulations to the new Ford team. I want to drill down on the European CO2 compliance strategy, both on the light vehicle side and the LCV side. So first on the LCV side, which, of course, as you flagged earlier, to your different standards, is that on track? And when can we expect an MEB-derived LCV platform for Europe?

祝賀福特的新團隊。我想深入了解歐洲二氧化碳合規戰略，包括輕型車輛和 LCV 方面。所以首先是在 LCV 方面，當然，正如你之前提到的，按照你的不同標準，這是否在軌道上？我們什麼時候可以期待歐洲的 MEB 衍生 LCV 平台？

Very specific question, so thank you. First of all, we have a great plan for Europe. We were on track for our CO2 target this year until the Kuga PHEV situation came up with a supplier late in the year. As I mentioned today, it's a bit new news, maybe not as -- maybe not as dramatic as $100,000 retail offroader, but the electric Transit is a really big deal for Ford Motor Company. It's -- we're #1 in the U.S. We're #1 in Western Europe. And we think electrifying this product is going to be really key, and that will be a key part of our CO2 compliance, that announcement.

非常具體的問題，謝謝。首先，我們對歐洲有一個偉大的計劃。今年我們一直在實現我們的 CO2 目標，直到今年年底出現了 Kuga PHEV 問題的供應商。正如我今天所提到的，這是一個新消息，可能不像 - 可能不像 100,000 美元的零售越野車那麼引人注目，但電動 Transit 對福特汽車公司來說是一筆非常大的交易。這是 - 我們在美國排名第一，我們在西歐排名第一。我們認為使該產品電氣化將是真正的關鍵，這將是我們的二氧化碳合規性的關鍵部分，該公告。

So we continue to see in Europe more city restrictions. Many, many of our small and medium-sized business owners are now asking for all-electric solution. And we also think the quality of the product will be a benefit for our European customers as well.

所以我們繼續在歐洲看到更多的城市限制。我們的許多中小型企業主現在都在尋求全電動解決方案。而且我們還認為產品的質量也將有利於我們的歐洲客戶。

The Mach-E will be sold in Europe next year in volume. And so we have a great plan next year with the Mach-E. And we have a number of hybrids coming out next year in Europe in mild hybrids. I can't be specific. But we really have a great lineup in Europe, over 20 models. But what gets the leadership team really excited about Europe is the commercial vehicle business and the electrification of our high-volume van.

Mach-E 將於明年在歐洲大量銷售。所以我們明年有一個很棒的計劃，那就是 Mach-E。明年，我們將在歐洲推出一些輕度混合動力車。我不能具體。但我們在歐洲確實有一個很棒的陣容，超過 20 種型號。但真正讓領導團隊對歐洲感到興奮的是商用車業務和我們大容量貨車的電氣化。

Right. I would concur on that. So moving over to the light vehicle passenger car and CV market, it struck -- there certainly is a split of opinion with many viewing plug-in hybrids as a transition and million-plus unit global EV platforms as the way to go. A, what's your thinking on that strategy? And B, as we kind of go into '21, '22, can you flex between BEVs and plug-in hybrids or even move to a more consolidated BEV platform for Europe?

對。我同意這一點。因此，轉向輕型乘用車和 CV 市場，它觸動了——當然，許多人將插電式混合動力車視為一種過渡，而將百萬以上單位的全球 EV 平台視為前進的道路，肯定存在意見分歧。 A，你對這個策略有什麼看法？而 B，當我們進入 21 和 22 年時，您能否在 BEV 和插電式混合動力車之間靈活調整，甚至轉向歐洲更整合的 BEV 平台？

I think the flexibility between battery electrics, plug-ins is not very high. So we're really locked in as we should be. So I wouldn't -- this is not like vehicle mix or something like that. All the battery supplies are slightly different. And also the lead time for changing battery capacity is a lot longer than most other major components in the vehicle. So I would think about those capacities in terms of flexibility very different than I would a traditional ICE powertrain.

我認為電池電，插件之間的靈活性不是很高。所以我們真的像我們應該的那樣被鎖定了。所以我不會 - 這不像車輛混合或類似的東西。所有電池電源都略有不同。而且，更換電池容量的準備時間也比車輛中的大多數其他主要部件要長得多。所以我會從靈活性的角度來考慮這些能力，這與我對傳統 ICE 動力總成的看法截然不同。

Okay. And finally, have you disclosed or can you disclose who the polling agreement is with? Maybe it will become a public record at some point in the EU.

好的。最後，您是否披露或能否披露投票協議與誰簽訂？也許它會在某個時候成為歐盟的公共記錄。

We're not going to do that today.

我們今天不打算這樣做。

Our next question will come from the line of Dan Levy with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

Jim, wanted to start out with a strategic question on how you plan to balance the near-term industrial recovery of the business alongside the longer-term transition to EVs. Help me understand how you view the interplay of those 2. Is pace of EV development set regardless of the pace of your near-term recovery? Or should we look at pace of EV development driven by the extensive near-term recovery? So if you outperform on your near-term targets, you can accelerate on EV and vice versa, if the recovery is slower. So what's the interplay of sort of near-term recovery with the pace of your EV development?

吉姆想從一個戰略問題開始，即您計劃如何在企業的近期工業復甦與向電動汽車的長期過渡之間取得平衡。幫助我了解您如何看待這兩者之間的相互作用。 2. 無論您的近期復蘇步伐如何，電動汽車開發的步伐是否已經確定？還是我們應該關注由近期廣泛復甦推動的電動汽車發展步伐？因此，如果您在近期目標上表現優於預期，您可以在 EV 上加速，反之亦然，如果復蘇較慢。那麼，近期復蘇與您的電動汽車發展步伐之間的相互作用是什麼？

Well, first of all, for Ford, our plan is very simple, turn around automotive operations, modernize the company and, in a way, disrupt ourselves, launch high-growth businesses like our CV services business or a go-to-market customer-facing AV business. And so our calls on capital are much more complicated than just EV and vehicles. We have 15,000 software engineers at Ford right now and that will grow. So our calls on capital are software, the credit company, obviously. But increasingly, it's these services businesses. And we need talent. We need cash and capital to support them. It's all funded essentially by our core automotive operations.

嗯，首先，對於福特來說，我們的計劃非常簡單，扭轉汽車業務，使公司現代化，並在某種程度上顛覆我們自己，推出高增長業務，如我們的 CV 服務業務或進入市場的客戶- 面向 AV 業務。因此，我們對資本的呼籲比電動汽車和汽車要復雜得多。我們現在在福特有 15,000 名軟件工程師，而且這個數字還會增長。所以我們對資本的呼籲顯然是軟件，信貸公司。但越來越多的是這些服務業務。我們需要人才。我們需要現金和資金來支持他們。這一切基本上都由我們的核心汽車業務提供資金。

And so the turnaround of automotive operations is not just a share -- a stakeholder journey. It's actually the lifeblood of our future because it funds everything. And so how we look at it is getting our automotive operations overseas to profit and then a solid sustainable return, dealing with the issues of passenger cars in Europe and South America and India, the 3 problem kind of areas we've had in automotive, and getting our North America operations 10-plus percent is an absolute minimum for the company to fund not just the electrification journey but as well our move to services, data and software.

因此，汽車運營的好轉不僅僅是分享——利益相關者的旅程。它實際上是我們未來的命脈，因為它為一切提供資金。所以我們如何看待它是讓我們的海外汽車業務盈利，然後獲得穩定的可持續回報，處理歐洲、南美和印度的乘用車問題，這是我們在汽車領域遇到的三個問題，讓我們的北美業務增長 10% 以上是公司的絕對最低要求，不僅要資助電氣化之旅，還要資助我們轉向服務、數據和軟件。

Understood. So help me understand though. As far as you have these larger capital calls, and presumably, you have probably a priority list and then also a nice-to-have list in terms of your investments. Does the pace of recovery at all impact the way that you accelerate or decelerate spend on those?

明白了。所以請幫助我理解。就您有這些較大的資本要求而言，並且大概，您可能有一個優先列表，然後是您的投資方面的一個不錯的列表。復甦的步伐是否會影響您加速或減速支出的方式？

These are great questions. If you don't mind, I don't -- I think it's best if we take a pass and we talk about this next spring. It is such a fundamental question you're asking. It is such an important question for Ford. I don't think the third quarter earnings is the right venue. We need to take our time and go through this with you and all of the key stakeholders at Ford. And I think you'll be -- I think you'll find it for all of us to be a lot wiser if we just take more time and we have specifics for you.

這些都是很好的問題。如果你不介意，我不介意——我認為我們最好通過並在明年春天討論這個問題。這是你問的一個基本問題。對於福特來說，這是一個非常重要的問題。我不認為第三季度的收益是合適的地點。我們需要花時間與您和福特的所有主要利益相關者一起解決這個問題。而且我認為你會 - 我認為如果我們花更多時間並且我們為你提供具體細節，你會發現我們所有人都會變得更加明智。

Got it. And then just a follow-up on the concept of growth. You're focused on top line growth. I think it's also clear, at the same time, you're likely willing to further stack price, some of what maybe we can call lower quality or more to commoditize pass car volumes. So question is, are we already seeing some structural volume decline in North America related to your exit from pass car in Europe as well. But could you give us a sense of maybe how much more we might expect to see volume decline in the coming years related to a more commoditized product? Or maybe said differently, in which regions do you think there is more room to go on removing more commoditized, less value-add type volume?

知道了。然後只是對增長概念的跟進。您專注於收入增長。我認為這也很清楚，與此同時，您可能願意進一步疊加價格，其中一些我們可以稱之為較低質量或更多的價格，以使通行車數量商品化。所以問題是，我們是否已經看到北美的一些結構性銷量下降與您退出歐洲的通行車有關。但是您能否告訴我們，未來幾年與更加商品化的產品相關的銷量下降幅度可能會有多少？或者換一種說法，您認為在哪些地區還有更多的空間可以繼續消除更多商品化、低附加值類型的數量？

Well, thank you for your question. It's a very important one for us. After several years of making really tough choices, we now have the opportunity in North America to grow. And I'll emphasize again something I put in my speech, and I think it's quite important for everyone to understand our ambition. As John mentioned, our share of F-Series grew. Our mix of SUV grew. Our car share is declining almost below 10% now. And our North America share increased 1 full point in the quarter. And we have Bronco we've never had before. We have Mach-E that we've never had before. So -- and we're really excited about the profit potential for all those vehicles.

嗯，謝謝你的問題。這對我們來說非常重要。經過幾年的艱難抉擇，我們現在有了在北美髮展的機會。我將再次強調我在演講中提出的一些內容，我認為每個人都了解我們的雄心非常重要。正如約翰所說，我們在 F 系列中的份額有所增長。我們的 SUV 組合增長了。我們的汽車份額現在幾乎下降到 10% 以下。我們的北美份額在本季度增長了 1 個百分點。我們擁有從未有過的 Bronco。我們擁有從未有過的 Mach-E。所以 - 我們對所有這些車輛的盈利潛力感到非常興奮。

So here we are on the eve of Ford Motor Company being able to execute well and grow in North America. When you look outside of North America, the growth that matters for us is commercial vehicles in Europe, a key growth metric for us. In China, we have an opportunity to grow. Again, we just localized the Explorer and the whole Lincoln lineup. We haven't sold as many Lincolns as we did in September in 25 years and it's because of China. So we have a huge opportunity to grow in China. And we have an opportunity to grow with export models coming from Mahindra.

因此，我們正處於福特汽車公司能夠在北美良好執行和發展的前夕。當您放眼北美以外的地區時，對我們來說重要的增長是歐洲的商用車，這對我們來說是一個關鍵的增長指標。在中國，我們有機會成長。同樣，我們只是將 Explorer 和整個林肯陣容本地化。 25 年來，我們沒有像 9 月份那樣售出那麼多林肯，這是因為中國。所以我們在中國有很大的發展機會。我們有機會與來自 Mahindra 的出口車型一起成長。

And I have to say, we haven't talked a lot about this but I'll leak it out. And that is we have some really exciting, affordable products for North America. They're going to help us grow profitably. So I think what you'll see is China and North America growth opportunities, and the rest of the world, we're really focused on where we can win with Ranger or the commercial vehicles in Europe. And you'll see us continue to grow these services businesses along the way.

我不得不說，我們還沒有談過很多，但我會把它洩露出去。那就是我們為北美提供了一些非常令人興奮、價格合理的產品。他們將幫助我們實現盈利增長。所以我認為你會看到中國和北美的增長機會，而在世界其他地區，我們真正關注的是我們可以通過 Ranger 或歐洲的商用車贏得的地方。您會看到我們在此過程中繼續發展這些服務業務。

I hope if there's one message you would get from Ford, from this leadership team is that we're really trying to think, everyone -- asking everyone to think about growth at Ford is more than unit volume growth. We want to grow our software business, our services business. I hope that made sense.

我希望如果你能從福特那裡得到一個信息，這個領導團隊是我們真的在努力思考，每個人——讓每個人都考慮福特的增長不僅僅是銷量增長。我們希望發展我們的軟件業務，我們的服務業務。我希望這是有道理的。

That's helpful color.

這是有用的顏色。

And our last question for the day will come from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

Maybe just 2 quick ones since we touched on a lot. I realize you are not talking about free cash flow for the fourth quarter. But the Ford Credit EBT year-to-date is $1.7 billion. The distribution is only $1.1 billion. And I think you've committed in the past to dividending all that out. So should we expect a catch-up in the fourth quarter?

可能只有 2 個快速的，因為我們接觸了很多。我意識到你不是在談論第四季度的自由現金流。但福特信貸今年迄今的 EBT 為 17 億美元。分配只有11億美元。而且我認為您過去曾承諾將所有這些都分紅。那麼我們是否應該期待在第四季度趕上？

Yes, I'm not sure that I'm quite clear on that. The catch-up is I think that we've been distributing from Ford Credit on a regular basis throughout the year, so I wouldn't expect there to be anything out of the ordinary there. Marion?

是的，我不確定我對此是否很清楚。追趕的是我認為我們全年都在定期從福特信貸分發，所以我不認為那裡會有任何不尋常的事情。馬里昂？

Yes. Joe, the distributions from Ford Credit are going to reflect profits after tax, balance sheet size and leverage. It's going to be where it's going to be.

是的。喬，福特信貸的分配將反映稅後利潤、資產負債表規模和槓桿率。它會在它會在的地方。

Okay. And then just lastly, John. I saw in the media, I think you made a comment about how it's too early to talk about the dividend reinstatement. I realize ultimately, it's a Board decision. But I'll open this up, I guess, to Jim and John. In each of your opinion, should Ford be paying a dividend over the coming years given the transformation you're talking about? And if so, what are really the parameters you're looking for, for reinstating that dividend?

好的。最後，約翰。我在媒體上看到，我認為你評論說現在談論恢復股息還為時過早。我最終意識到，這是董事會的決定。但我想，我會向吉姆和約翰敞開心扉。在您看來，鑑於您正在談論的轉型，福特是否應該在未來幾年支付股息？如果是這樣，您正在尋找的真正參數是什麼，以恢復該股息？

Yes. That's -- thanks for the question. I don't think this is the time to have that discussion. I think we need to have that framed up in our total capital strategy and calls on capital and where we're headed as a business, and I think next spring would be the time to do that.

是的。那是 - 謝謝你的問題。我認為現在不是討論的時候。我認為我們需要將其納入我們的總資本戰略和資本需求以及我們作為企業的發展方向，我認為明年春天將是這樣做的時候。

Thank you. That will conclude today's Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. We do appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。這將結束今天的福特汽車公司 2020 年第三季度收益電話會議。我們非常感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。