福特汽車 (F) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's Ford Motor Company Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Holly, and I'll be today's operator. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations. Lynn?

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到今天的福特汽車公司 2019 年第四季度收益電話會議。我的名字是霍莉，我將成為今天的接線員。 （操作員說明）此時，我想將電話轉給投資者關係執行董事 Lynn Antipas Tyson。林恩？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

And ladies and gentlemen, stand by. I believe we have lost our audio. One moment for the speaker.

女士們，先生們，待命。我相信我們已經失去了我們的音頻。演講者的片刻。

Thank you, operator. Welcome everyone to Ford Motor Company's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. Presenting today are Jim Hackett, our President and CEO, and Tim Stone, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us are Joe Hinrichs, President, Automotive; Jim Farley, President, New Businesses, Technology and Strategy; and Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit.

謝謝你，接線員。歡迎大家參加福特汽車公司 2019 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天的演講嘉賓是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Hackett 和我們的首席財務官 Tim Stone。加入我們的還有汽車總裁 Joe Hinrichs； Jim Farley，新業務、技術和戰略總裁；和福特信貸首席執行官馬里恩哈里斯。

Jim Hackett will begin with a brief review of our results, progress against our strategic initiatives and guidance for 2020. Tim will follow with a more detailed look at our results and guidance, after which we'll turn to Q&A. Following the Q&A, Jim Hackett will make closing remarks.

吉姆哈克特將首先簡要回顧我們的結果、我們的戰略計劃進展和 2020 年指導。蒂姆將隨後更詳細地了解我們的結果和指導，然後我們將轉向問答。問答環節結束後，吉姆·哈克特 (Jim Hackett) 將致閉幕詞。

Our comments today will include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck, which can be found along with the rest of our earnings materials at shareholder.ford.com.

我們今天的評論將包括一些非公認會計原則的參考。這些與我們收益甲板附錄中最具可比性的美國公認會計原則措施相一致，可在股東.ford.com 上與我們的其他收益材料一起找到。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements about our business. Actual results may differ from those stated and the most significant factors for -- that are included on Page 26 of our presentation. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. References to company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis, and product mix is volume weighted.

今天的電話會議將包括關於我們業務的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們演示文稿第 26 頁中所述的和最重要的因素有所不同。除非另有說明，否則所有比較均為同比。對公司息稅前利潤、每股收益和自由現金流的參考是經過調整的，產品組合是體積加權的。

As a reminder, starting in 2020, we changed our business units in our auto segment to align with how we now manage our business. To help you navigate this, in the appendix of our earnings deck is a diagram of the changes, including where results from certain joint ventures will be reported. We've also included 2018 and 2019 results by quarter that coincide with the new reporting structure.

提醒一下，從 2020 年開始，我們改變了汽車部門的業務部門，以適應我們現在管理業務的方式。為了幫助您了解這一點，我們收益表的附錄中有一張變化圖表，包括某些合資企業的業績將在何處報告。我們還包括了與新報告結構一致的 2018 年和 2019 年季度業績。

Some minor IR housekeeping. Going forward, we'll announce the date for our next earnings release in conjunction with results for the previous quarter. For example, we are announcing today that the date for our 2020 Q1 earnings will be April 28. Please disregard our previously announced dates for July and October 2020.

一些小的 IR 家政服務。展望未來，我們將結合上一季度的業績公佈下一次收益發布的日期。例如，我們今天宣布 2020 年第一季度收益的日期為 4 月 28 日。請忽略我們之前宣布的 2020 年 7 月和 2020 年 10 月的日期。

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Lynn, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Please turn to Page 3. At the start of this new decade, we are also at a crossroads for our industry and for Ford Motor Company. I believe, as I've said before, there is an incredibly bright future for Ford within what has become a very disruptive environment. And to realize this future, we undertook a fundamental redesign of the company to compete and win in this new era of smart vehicles in a smart world.

謝謝，Lynn，也感謝你們今天加入我們。請轉至第 3 頁。在這個新的十年開始之際，我們也處於行業和福特汽車公司的十字路口。我相信，正如我之前所說，在一個非常具有破壞性的環境中，福特有一個非常光明的未來。為了實現這個未來，我們對公司進行了根本性的重新設計，以在智能世界的智能汽車新時代競爭和取勝。

Now on this call a year ago, I told you that 2019 would be a year of strategic action with potential for financial improvement. Now measured against the first part of that statement, 2019 was a year we took meaningful actions to improve our fitness and accelerate our transformation into a higher-growth, higher-margin business by leveraging smart connected vehicles and breakthrough customer experience.

現在在一年前的電話會議上，我告訴過你，2019 年將是具有財務改善潛力的戰略行動之年。現在對照該聲明的第一部分來衡量，2019 年是我們採取有意義的行動的一年，通過利用智能互聯汽車和突破性的客戶體驗，我們採取了有意義的行動來改善我們的健康狀況並加速我們向更高增長、更高利潤的業務轉型。

A powerful example of our company's move into the digital future was the November reveal of our Mustang Mach-E, an exciting 0-emissions vehicle that will be fully connected and continually improved through over-the-air updates. We're encouraged by the interest and early orders around the world. Moving forward, virtually all our new vehicles will be connected, enabling Ford to vastly enhance customer experience and our ability to leverage data and analytics to constantly raise quality and reduce costs.

我們公司邁向數字化未來的一個有力例子是 11 月發布的 Mustang Mach-E，這是一款令人興奮的零排放車輛，將通過無線更新實現完全互聯並不斷改進。我們對世界各地的興趣和早期訂單感到鼓舞。展望未來，我們幾乎所有的新車都將聯網，從而使福特能夠極大地提升客戶體驗以及我們利用數據和分析不斷提高質量和降低成本的能力。

Additionally, this past year, we forged strategic agreements and partnerships around the world with VW, Rivian and Mahindra. This is to help position Ford for leadership in autonomous and electric vehicles and create new business models for profitable growth in emerging and emerged markets. We continued one of the most ambitious portfolio shifts in our history, focusing our capital on growing profitable segments and playing to the strength of our brand. We are right on strategy to add compelling new products across segments, price points while phasing out unprofitable and commoditized vehicles in shrinking segments, and this will only accelerate moving forward, which benefits our share, bottom line and most importantly, customers.

此外，在過去的一年裡，我們與大眾、Rivian 和 Mahindra 在全球範圍內建立了戰略協議和合作夥伴關係。這是為了幫助福特在自動駕駛和電動汽車領域處於領先地位，並為新興市場的盈利增長創造新的商業模式。我們繼續進行我們歷史上最雄心勃勃的投資組合轉變之一，將我們的資本集中在增長的盈利領域並發揮我們品牌的實力。我們的戰略是正確的，即在各個細分市場、價格點增加引人注目的新產品，同時在縮小的細分市場逐步淘汰無利可圖和商品化的車輛，這只會加速前進，這有利於我們的份額、底線，最重要的是，有利於客戶。

We also made significant progress on our global redesign in 2019. We took tough but important steps to strengthen our capabilities and create a more resilient Ford. Those actions included restructuring our operations in Europe and South America, assembling a talented new leadership team in China with strong local market expertise and reducing the size of our salaried workforce around the world, flattening the organization and cutting down bureaucracy in the process.

我們在 2019 年的全球重新設計方面也取得了重大進展。我們採取了艱難但重要的步驟來增強我們的能力並打造更具彈性的福特。這些行動包括重組我們在歐洲和南美的業務，在中國組建一支擁有強大本地市場專業知識的才華橫溢的新領導團隊，並減少我們在全球的受薪員工規模，精簡組織並減少過程中的官僚作風。

In the second area I talked about last year, potential financial improvement, we fell short of our expectations and yours in 2019. What is particularly disappointing is that a primary reason for that shortfall was our operational execution, and this is an area we are typically very effective in. Our execution was simply not nearly good enough. Clearly, we recognize this, and of course, we're accountable for it. And we've taken steps to address these shortfalls.

在我去年談到的第二個領域，潛在的財務改善，我們在 2019 年沒有達到我們和你們的預期。特別令人失望的是，這種不足的主要原因是我們的運營執行，這是我們通常的領域非常有效。我們的執行根本不夠好。顯然，我們認識到這一點，當然，我們對此負責。我們已採取措施解決這些不足。

An example of this was the manufacturing launch of our all-new Explorer. The lost volumes in Chicago during ramp-up marred the year, and there were some important lessons that we learned. The good news is the Explorer is a fantastic vehicle, and we've entered the year with strong customer demand for it. Financial improvement was also held back by the emergence of warranty issues primarily for vehicles designed years ago.

這方面的一個例子是我們全新的 Explorer 的製造發布。增長期間芝加哥的交易量損失影響了這一年，我們從中吸取了一些重要的教訓。好消息是 Explorer 是一款出色的車輛，我們已經進入了客戶對它的強烈需求的一年。主要針對多年前設計的車輛出現的保修問題也阻礙了財務改善。

So before I get into the numbers, let me make this very clear. Our leadership team is determined to return to world-class levels of operational execution. We will do that without losing any momentum in creating a Ford Motor Company that will thrive and generate long-term value in these fast-changing times. To this end, we've made changes to our executive incentive plans, and we placed an even greater weight on free cash flow, which we think is the ultimate gauge of our success in driving growth and allocating capital to its best and highest uses.

所以在我進入數字之前，讓我說清楚。我們的領導團隊決心回到世界一流的運營執行水平。我們將在不失去創建福特汽車公司的任何動力的情況下做到這一點，該公司將在瞬息萬變的時代蓬勃發展並創造長期價值。為此，我們對高管激勵計劃進行了修改，我們更加重視自由現金流，我們認為這是衡量我們在推動增長和將資本分配到最佳和最高用途方面是否成功的最終衡量標準。

Please turn to Page 4. Our full year revenue declined 3% and company-adjusted EBIT of $6.4 billion was down 9%. This yielded an overall margin of 4.1%, and adjusted EPS for the year was $1.19. Importantly, we generated $2.8 billion in total company-adjusted free cash flow. Our balance sheet, it remains strong with $22 billion in cash and $35 billion in liquidity, both of which are well above our target levels.

請轉到第 4 頁。我們的全年收入下降了 3%，公司調整後的息稅前利潤為 64 億美元，下降了 9%。這產生了 4.1% 的整體利潤率，全年調整後的每股收益為 1.19 美元。重要的是，我們產生了 28 億美元的公司調整後自由現金流。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，擁有 220 億美元的現金和 350 億美元的流動性，兩者都遠高於我們的目標水平。

Please turn to Page 5. As I mentioned, in 2019, we significantly strengthened our portfolio around the world. New launches included that all-new Explorer I mentioned, Escape and Super Duty and the Puma in Europe in addition to the reveal of our Mustang Mach-E. On a volume basis, this product renaissance will gather even more momentum in 2020, especially in North America. Ford F-Series was America's truck leader for the 43rd consecutive year. In the fourth quarter, F-150 volumes closed strongly with the segment share up year-over-year and sequentially. The new Ranger in its first full year of production in the U.S. earned a 21% share of the midsize pickup segment in the fourth quarter, and this contributed to our best year of total pickup sales since 2005. So we're quite proud with the F-Series and Ranger as a one-two punch. Ford was not only the leader in U.S. full-size pickups but also the leader in total pickup sales in 2019.

請轉到第 5 頁。正如我所提到的，在 2019 年，我們顯著加強了我們在全球的投資組合。新發布的產品包括我提到的全新 Explorer、Escape 和 Super Duty 以及歐洲的 Puma，以及我們的 Mustang Mach-E。從數量上看，這種產品復興將在 2020 年聚集更多動力，尤其是在北美。福特 F 系列連續第 43 年成為美國卡車的領導者。第四季度，F-150 銷量強勁收盤，該細分市場份額同比和環比增長。新款 Ranger 在美國第一個全年生產，在第四季度贏得了中型皮卡市場 21% 的份額，這為我們自 2005 年以來皮卡總銷量最好的一年做出了貢獻。所以我們對F系列和遊俠作為一二拳。福特不僅是美國全尺寸皮卡的領導者，也是 2019 年皮卡總銷量的領導者。

In Europe, we started the rollout of 17 new hybrid and all-electric passenger and commercial vehicles, including the all-new Puma SUV. This broader electric portfolio shows how serious we are about meeting the region's new carbon footprint requirements. We launched our first-ever fully electric vehicle in China with a version of Territory, and we announced we would introduce more than 30 market-specific Ford and Lincoln vehicles. 10 of these will be electrified over the next 3 years. And as mentioned, our all-new Mustang Mach-E will reach customers late this year.

在歐洲，我們開始推出 17 款新型混合動力和全電動乘用車和商用車，包括全新的 Puma SUV。這種更廣泛的電力產品組合表明我們對滿足該地區新的碳足跡要求的重視程度。我們在中國推出了首款帶有領地版本的純電動汽車，我們宣布將推出 30 多款針對市場的福特和林肯汽車。其中 10 台將在未來 3 年內實現電氣化。如前所述，我們全新的 Mustang Mach-E 將於今年晚些時候交付給客戶。

Now all of these products supports Ford's commitment to achieve the Paris Climate Accord glide path for lower CO2 emissions. And at the same time, we maintain leadership around the globe with our franchise vehicles: Mustang, America's and the world's #1 sports coupe; F-Series, along with Ranger, which is the #2 medium-sized pickup outside the U.S. and #1 in Europe; Explorer, America's all-time best selling SUV; and Transit, the top cargo van globally.

現在，所有這些產品都支持福特實現巴黎氣候協議下滑路徑以降低二氧化碳排放的承諾。同時，我們憑藉我們的特許車輛在全球保持領先地位：野馬、美國和世界排名第一的運動型轎跑車； F系列，以及Ranger，這是美國以外排名第二和歐洲排名第一的中型皮卡； Explorer，美國歷史上最暢銷的SUV；和 Transit，全球頂級貨車。

Now while some automakers are clearly pursuing full-blown mergers for scale and cost sharing, Ford's strategy is based on strategic partnerships and alliances that will deliver benefits in key segments and markets while improving our cost and capital efficiency. For example, our agreement with VW is structured to allow us to reap scale gains from our collective leadership position in light commercial vehicles and medium pickups and in electrification and autonomous vehicles.

現在，雖然一些汽車製造商顯然正在尋求全面的合併以實現規模和成本分擔，但福特的戰略是基於戰略合作夥伴關係和聯盟，這將在關鍵領域和市場帶來利益，同時提高我們的成本和資本效率。例如，我們與大眾的協議旨在使我們能夠從我們在輕型商用車和中型皮卡以及電氣化和自動駕駛汽車領域的集體領導地位中獲得規模收益。

Our joint venture with Mahindra will combine low-cost engineering and manufacturing, optimized for India and export to other emerged and emerging markets with more efficient levels of investment. With our equity position in Rivian and well-matched strengths of the 2 companies, we can quickly bring to market an all-new BEV using Rivian's flexible platform. In fact, last week, we announced we are working with Rivian on Lincoln's first all-electric vehicle, building on the introduction last year of the Lincoln Aviator and Corsair Grand Touring plug-in hybrids.

我們與 Mahindra 的合資企業將結合低成本工程和製造，針對印度進行優化，並以更有效的投資水平出口到其他新興市場。憑藉我們在 Rivian 的股權以及兩家公司的強強聯合，我們可以使用 Rivian 靈活的平台快速將全新的 BEV 推向市場。事實上，上週我們宣布我們正在與 Rivian 合作開發林肯的第一款全電動汽車，這是在去年推出的林肯 Aviator 和 Corsair Grand Touring 插電式混合動力車的基礎上進行的。

In terms of global redesign, Ford took decisive actions in both Europe and South America to fortify and build on strengths while addressing underperforming parts of those regional businesses. In Europe, we announced the closure of 6 manufacturing facilities, which will reduce our footprint to 18 facilities from 24. We also refocused our European product portfolio atop 3 pillars: one, strengthening our leadership in commercial vehicles; two, delivering a targeted portfolio of passenger vehicles; and three, importing iconic nameplates. Now in the process, we're reducing our workforce in Europe by 12,000 positions with more than half of that completed in 2019.

在全球重新設計方面，福特在歐洲和南美採取了果斷行動，以鞏固和鞏固優勢，同時解決這些區域業務表現不佳的部分。在歐洲，我們宣布關閉 6 家製造工廠，這將使我們的足跡從 24 家減少到 18 家。我們還將歐洲產品組合重新聚焦於三大支柱：一，加強我們在商用車領域的領導地位；二是提供有針對性的乘用車產品組合；三、進口標誌性銘牌。現在，在此過程中，我們將在歐洲裁員 12,000 個職位，其中一半以上在 2019 年完成。

In South America, we're moving to a lower-cost, asset-light business model, and last year, we exited production of heavy trucks. We closed our plant in Sao Bernardo and discontinued the Fiesta and Focus models. Over the past 3 years, we've reduced our total workforce in South America by more than 40%. In China, we completed the build-out of an experienced local leadership team and localized the first of 5 products, our Lincoln Corsair.

在南美，我們正在轉向低成本、輕資產的商業模式，去年，我們退出了重型卡車的生產。我們關閉了在聖貝爾納多的工廠，並停產了 Fiesta 和 Focus 車型。在過去 3 年中，我們在南美的總勞動力減少了 40% 以上。在中國，我們完成了一支經驗豐富的本地領導團隊的組建，並將 5 款產品中的第一款產品——林肯海盜船本土化。

The heart of Ford's vision is preparing the company to compete and win in this emerging era we describe as smart vehicles for a smart world. A practical effect is we continue to invest in and expand our capabilities in mobility, connected service and autonomous vehicles, areas that will provide meaningful opportunities for growth. For example, Ford Commercial Solutions significantly grew its data and telematics subscriptions in 2019, building out the portfolio of services. We are leveraging those services in our large, profitable and expanding commercial truck franchises, which includes a sizable fleet market.

福特願景的核心是讓公司做好準備，在這個被我們稱為智能世界的智能汽車的新興時代中競爭和取勝。實際效果是，我們將繼續投資並擴大我們在移動性、互聯服務和自動駕駛汽車方面的能力，這些領域將為增長提供有意義的機會。例如，福特商業解決方案在 2019 年顯著增加了其數據和遠程信息處理訂閱，從而構建了服務組合。我們正在我們的大型、盈利和不斷擴大的商用卡車特許經營中利用這些服務，其中包括一個龐大的車隊市場。

In terms of autonomous vehicles, we continued our credible and holistic approach to building a successful, scalable and profitable AV business, focusing on the customer experience, the self-driving system, lead operations and designing our purpose-built self-driving vehicle. Ford AV LLC and Argo AI now have joint autonomous vehicle testing operations in Austin; Miami; Washington, D.C.; Pittsburgh; Detroit; and the South Bay Metro area in Silicon Valley. Now these 6 locations make up the largest urban AV testing footprint in the industry, providing us with a unique and invaluable diversity of real-world miles driven. With that information, we're continuously optimizing Argo's self-driving system and positioning Ford exceptionally well for commercialization and subsequent scaling of this technology.

在自動駕駛汽車方面，我們繼續採用可靠和整體的方法來建立成功、可擴展和盈利的自動駕駛汽車業務，專注於客戶體驗、自動駕駛系統、領先運營和設計我們的專用自動駕駛汽車。福特 AV LLC 和 Argo AI 現在在奧斯汀擁有聯合自動駕駛汽車測試業務；邁阿密;華盛頓特區。;匹茲堡；底特律;和矽谷的南灣都會區。現在，這 6 個地點構成了業內最大的城市 AV 測試足跡，為我們提供了獨特而寶貴的真實世界里程多樣性。有了這些信息，我們將不斷優化 Argo 的自動駕駛系統，並將福特定位為非常適合該技術的商業化和後續擴展。

But before I turn the call over to Tim, let me briefly touch on 2020. As I said at the start, we begin this decade with optimism and the conviction that we're taking the right steps to redesign and restructure our business, improve our fitness and prepare the company to compete and win in the future. 2020 will be the year we reintroduce Bronco to the world, the year we completely redesign the F-150, the year we'll start seeing the Mustang Mach-E on roads around the world. All these vehicles will be smarter and more connected and ever improving.

但在我將電話轉給蒂姆之前，讓我簡要談談 2020 年。正如我在開頭所說的那樣，我們以樂觀的態度開始這十年，並堅信我們正在採取正確的步驟來重新設計和重組我們的業務，改善我們的健身，讓公司為未來的競爭和勝利做好準備。 2020 年將是我們將 Bronco 重新引入世界的一年，我們完全重新設計 F-150 的一年，我們將開始在世界各地的道路上看到 Mustang Mach-E 的一年。所有這些車輛都將變得更智能、更互聯並且不斷改進。

We're focused on solid execution of our product launches this year, especially where there will naturally be downtime during changeover like the F-150. The cadence of these launches, which are volume weighted towards the end of the year, will drive headwinds for us in 2020, but they will strengthen our earnings and cash flow potential heading into 2021.

我們今年專注於紮實執行我們的產品發布，尤其是在 F-150 等轉換期間自然會出現停機時間的情況下。這些發布的節奏在年底前按數量加權，將在 2020 年給我們帶來不利影響，但它們將增強我們進入 2021 年的收益和現金流潛力。

Now let me briefly talk about what we are seeing and doing relative to the coronavirus. As you would expect, our Ford team is proactively monitoring the situation on several fronts, including the safety of our employees and their families. This is paramount. Business continuity, including our JV partners in China as well as customers, supply chain management, logistics and, of course, where we can, we want to be part of the solution, so we are donating money and equipment where we can be most effective.

現在讓我簡要談談我們所看到的和正在做的與冠狀病毒相關的事情。正如您所料，我們的福特團隊正在積極監控多個方面的情況，包括我們員工及其家人的安全。這是最重要的。業務連續性，包括我們在中國的合資夥伴以及客戶、供應鏈管理、物流，當然，在可能的情況下，我們希望成為解決方案的一部分，因此我們在最有效的地方捐贈資金和設備.

Thus, my strong instinct is to want to tell you what the impact of this virus may be on our business and our guidance for this year. However, it's simply too early. China is only now starting to come back from an extended New Year holiday, and many companies, including Ford, are currently hoping to resume large parts of their industrial operations next week. And that is most experts are already saying, and we agree, that it will take weeks to begin to understand the implications of the outbreak.

因此，我強烈的直覺是想告訴你這種病毒可能對我們的業務和我們今年的指導產生什麼影響。然而，現在還為時過早。中國現在才剛剛開始從延長的新年假期中恢復過來，包括福特在內的許多公司目前都希望在下週恢復大部分工業運營。這是大多數專家已經說過的，我們也同意，需要數週時間才能開始了解疫情的影響。

In the meantime, we will describe our expectations for the business excluding the possible effects of the coronavirus. It is possible though that we could absorb a modest impact from the virus within our guidance range. For the year, we are driving for at least nominal growth in auto as we continue our ambitious portfolio transformation. We expect this growth though to be offset by lower EBT from Ford Credit and a modest investment increase in mobility. Tim Stone, our CFO, will provide more color. In fact, now I will turn the call over to Tim.

與此同時，我們將描述我們對業務的期望，不包括冠狀病毒的可能影響。不過，我們有可能在我們的指導範圍內吸收病毒的適度影響。今年，隨著我們繼續雄心勃勃的投資組合轉型，我們正在推動汽車至少名義上的增長。我們預計這一增長將被福特信貸較低的 EBT 和移動性投資的適度增加所抵消。我們的首席財務官 Tim Stone 將提供更多色彩。事實上，現在我將把電話轉給蒂姆。

Thanks, Jim. While our 2019 results were not okay, I'm confident we have abundant opportunities to improve our operational execution, drive growth, strengthen our financial results, including cash flow, and in the process, earn the confidence of our stakeholders. We will achieve our potential and optimize long-term value through timely decisive actions to strengthen our business and execute on our long-term vision. These include applying sharp rigor to the allocation of capital to higher-return investments, including our franchise products.

謝謝，吉姆。雖然我們 2019 年的業績不佳，但我相信我們有大量機會來改善我們的運營執行、推動增長、加強我們的財務業績，包括現金流，並在此過程中贏得利益相關者的信任。我們將通過及時的果斷行動來發揮我們的潛力並優化長期價值，以加強我們的業務並執行我們的長期願景。其中包括嚴格將資本分配給高回報投資，包括我們的特許經營產品。

As you heard me say in the past, we're focused on consistently improving customer experience and operational execution across our business. We're achieving important progress on our global redesign, making tough choices to lay the foundation for improvement in future growth, free cash flow, profitability and returns on capital. We're driving fitness, for example, scaling or improving the operating leverage of our structural costs and capital efficiency and forming alliances and joint ventures that will enable us to drive durable scale benefits. We're prioritizing meaningful opportunities for profitable long-term growth in mobility, and we will continue to employ disciplined execution to drive strong results from Ford Credit.

正如您在過去聽到我所說的那樣，我們專注於持續改善整個業務的客戶體驗和運營執行。我們在全球重新設計方面取得重要進展，做出艱難的選擇，為改善未來增長、自由現金流、盈利能力和資本回報奠定基礎。我們正在推動適應性，例如，擴大或提高結構成本和資本效率的運營槓桿，並組建聯盟和合資企業，使我們能夠推動持久的規模效益。我們正在優先考慮有意義的機會，以實現移動性的長期盈利增長，我們將繼續採用嚴格的執行來推動福特信貸的強勁業績。

Turning to our full year operating performance in 2019. Full year adjusted free cash flow of $2.8 billion was flat year-over-year as continued improvement in working capital in our auto business, lower capital spending and higher distributions from Ford Credit were largely offset by the UAW contract-related bonuses of about $600 million. Free cash flow is our most important financial measure, and we're committed to generating sustainable growth over time. Our cash and liquidity are $22 billion and $35 billion, respectively, above our target levels. We remain committed to a strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit ratings.

談到我們在 2019 年的全年經營業績。全年調整後的自由現金流為 28 億美元，與去年同期持平，因為我們汽車業務的營運資本持續改善、資本支出的減少和福特信貸的較高分配在很大程度上被抵消了UAW 合同相關獎金約為 6 億美元。自由現金流是我們最重要的財務指標，我們致力於隨著時間的推移實現可持續增長。我們的現金和流動性分別高於我們的目標水平 220 億美元和 350 億美元。我們將繼續致力於穩健的資產負債表和投資級信用評級。

Revenue declined 3% for the year or 1% excluding the impact of foreign exchange, and adjusted company EBIT of $6.4 billion was down 9%. While full year auto EBIT declined, the benefits of our redesign, fitness initiatives and stronger product portfolio, driven by our decision to reallocate capital to higher-return products, were evident in our underlying results. Led by North America, auto delivered $2.4 billion in favorable market factors, another strong year for us. This is supported by improved mix and pricing across most regions.

扣除外匯影響後，全年收入下降 3% 或 1%，調整後的公司息稅前利潤為 64 億美元，下降 9%。雖然全年汽車息稅前利潤下降，但我們重新設計、健身計劃和更強大的產品組合的好處，在我們決定將資本重新分配到更高回報的產品的推動下，在我們的基本業績中是顯而易見的。在北美的帶動下，汽車在有利的市場因素中貢獻了 24 億美元，這對我們來說又是強勁的一年。大多數地區改進的組合和定價支持這一點。

Auto structural costs, excluding pension and OPEB, were down for the year, primarily as a result of improved fitness and global redesign actions. The decline in structural costs was a sharp contrast to before we embarked on fitness when those costs were increasing an average of nearly $2 billion a year.

汽車結構成本（不包括養老金和 OPEB）在今年有所下降，這主要是由於適應性改善和全球重新設計行動的結果。結構成本的下降與我們開始健身之前形成鮮明對比，當時這些成本平均每年增加近 20 億美元。

Within auto, these favorable trends were more than offset by lower volumes, including the temporary effects of new product launches and the discontinuation of sedans in North America and low-margin products in other regions; higher net product costs as we continued to invest in the transformation of our product portfolio; unfavorable currency effects; UAW contract ratification costs; and higher warranty expenses.

在汽車領域，這些有利趨勢被銷量下降所抵消，包括新產品發布的暫時影響以及北美轎車和其他地區低利潤產品的停產；隨著我們繼續投資於產品組合的轉型，淨產品成本增加；不利的貨幣影響； UAW 合同批准費用；和更高的保修費用。

Regionally, we cut our loss in China by 1/2 year-over-year and Europe was just shy of breakeven. Together, these regions accounted for $1.1 billion in EBIT improvement. Outside of auto, we increased our investment in mobility by more than 75% or $0.5 billion as we continued to expand our capabilities and prepare for the launch of our AV business.

從地區來看，我們在中國的虧損同比減少了 1/2，而歐洲則接近盈虧平衡。這些地區合計帶來了 11 億美元的息稅前利潤改善。在汽車之外，隨著我們繼續擴展我們的能力並為推出我們的 AV 業務做準備，我們在移動性方面的投資增加了 75% 以上或 5 億美元。

Ford Credit had exceptional results, its best in 9 years, delivering $3 billion in EBT. During the fourth quarter of 2019, we generated $0.5 billion in adjusted free cash flow, down year-over-year, primarily due to UAW contract-related bonuses. Wholesales, which were off 8% in the quarter, contributed to a 5% decline in revenue. These drops were driven by lower volumes in all regions, including the temporary effects of product launches and the discontinuation of sedans in North America and low-margin products in other regions.

福特信貸取得了 9 年來最好的成績，實現了 30 億美元的 EBT。在 2019 年第四季度，我們產生了 5 億美元的調整後自由現金流，同比下降，主要是由於與 UAW 合同相關的獎金。本季度批發銷售額下降 8%，導致收入下降 5%。這些下降是由於所有地區的銷量下降，包括產品發布的暫時影響和北美轎車的停產以及其他地區的低利潤產品。

Auto EBIT of $0.2 billion was down $0.9 billion as higher net pricing and mix led by North America were more than offset by lower volumes, UAW contract-related costs, higher net product costs related to new products and adverse currency exchange. Our strategic investments in mobility increased more than 75% or $0.1 billion, largely driven by higher investments in autonomous vehicles.

2 億美元的汽車息稅前利潤下降了 9 億美元，因為以北美為首的淨定價和組合的增加被銷量下降、UAW 合同相關成本、與新產品相關的淨產品成本增加和不利的貨幣兌換所抵消。我們在移動性方面的戰略投資增加了 75% 以上，即 1 億美元，主要是由於對自動駕駛汽車的投資增加。

Ford Credit delivered another strong quarter with $0.6 billion in earnings before taxes, down 5%. The decline was driven by lower receivables, partially offset by favorable residual and credit loss performance. Loss metrics continue to reflect healthy and stable consumer credit, and auction values for off-lease vehicles were down 4% for the quarter and 2% for the year. For 2020, we expect auction values to be down about 5%. Company-adjusted EBIT declined by $1 billion to $0.5 billion, and our adjusted EBIT margin was down 227 basis points to 1.2% as improvement in China and Europe was more than offset by the decline in North America.

福特信貸實現了另一個強勁的季度，稅前利潤為 6 億美元，下降 5%。下降的原因是應收賬款減少，部分被良好的剩餘和信用損失表現所抵消。損失指標繼續反映健康和穩定的消費者信貸，非租賃車輛的拍賣價值在本季度下降了 4%，全年下降了 2%。到 2020 年，我們預計拍賣價值將下降約 5%。公司調整後息稅前利潤下降 10 億美元至 5 億美元，我們調整後的息稅前利潤率下降 227 個基點至 1.2%，因為中國和歐洲的改善被北美的下降所抵消。

Looking at our largest regions in more detail. North America wholesale units were down 8% in the quarter. This is driven by a tough comparison to the fourth quarter of 2018 when we were at peak volumes with no major product launches as well as by the launches of Super Duty and Escape and the planned discontinuation of sedans. The 2% decline in revenue was less than the decline in wholesales as improved mix and higher net pricing partially offset the decline in volume. EBIT was down 64%, and margin declined 480 basis points largely as a result of UAW contract-related bonuses and lower volumes.

更詳細地查看我們最大的地區。北美批發單位在本季度下降了 8%。這是由於與 2018 年第四季度的艱難比較，當時我們處於高峰期，沒有主要產品發布，以及 Super Duty 和 Escape 的發布以及轎車計劃停產。收入下降 2% 低於批發業務的下降幅度，因為改善組合和更高的淨定價部分抵消了銷量的下降。息稅前利潤下降了 64%，利潤率下降了 480 個基點，主要是由於與 UAW 合同相關的獎金和銷量下降。

In Europe, where we're carrying out a dramatic redesign of our business, wholesales declined 4% due to the planned discontinuation of low-margin products. Revenue in Europe was down 4% or 1%, excluding the impact of exchange. The decline in revenue, excluding exchange, was less than the decline in wholesales as improved product mix, driven by our portfolio actions largely offset volume effects.

在歐洲，我們正在對我們的業務進行重大的重新設計，由於計劃停止低利潤產品，批發量下降了 4%。歐洲的收入下降了 4% 或 1%，不包括匯率的影響。不包括交易所在內的收入下降幅度小於批發收入的下降幅度，因為在我們的投資組合行動的推動下，產品組合得到改善，很大程度上抵消了銷量效應。

Decline in Europe's top line metrics is an outcome of our redesign and portfolio shift as we exit low-margin businesses and refocus our portfolio on higher-growth and higher-return opportunities. The benefit of this refocus is evident in a few areas, for example, profitability. In the fourth quarter, EBIT in Europe improved from a loss of $199 million to a profit of $21 million. This is the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year profitability improvement in the region. This progress includes stronger product mix and lower structural costs.

歐洲收入指標的下降是我們重新設計和投資組合轉變的結果，因為我們退出了低利潤業務並將我們的投資組合重新聚焦於更高增長和更高回報的機會。這種重新聚焦的好處在一些領域很明顯，例如盈利能力。第四季度，歐洲的息稅前利潤從虧損 1.99 億美元改善為盈利 2100 萬美元。這是該地區連續第三個季度實現盈利同比增長。這一進展包括更強大的產品組合和更低的結構成本。

Our redesign and portfolio shift in Europe also make us better prepared to deliver on the region's new CO2 requirements. Compliance with these new regulations has been built into our product cycle and business plans for several years, and we expect to achieve the new CO2 requirements without incurring fines or purchasing credits.

我們在歐洲的重新設計和產品組合轉變也使我們能夠更好地滿足該地區新的二氧化碳排放要求。多年來，我們的產品週期和業務計劃已將遵守這些新法規納入其中，我們希望在不產生罰款或購買信用的情況下實現新的二氧化碳排放要求。

In China, wholesales, which include JV volumes, were down 7%. This is the third consecutive quarter of moderating declines in volume. Consolidated revenue in China was down 38% mainly because of lower volumes and component sales to joint ventures in the country. Our EBIT loss in China narrowed to $200 million, an improvement of $300 million year-over-year, driven by decline in structural costs and improved joint venture results. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement in results in China.

在中國，包括合資企業在內的批發量下降了 7%。這是銷量連續第三個季度放緩。中國的綜合收入下降了 38%，主要是由於中國合資企業的銷量和零部件銷售下降。在結構成本下降和合資企業業績改善的推動下，我們在中國的息稅前利潤虧損收窄至 2 億美元，同比減少 3 億美元。這是中國業績連續第四個季度同比增長。

For all of 2019, we were able to cut our losses by 1/2 as new products supported improved market factors, including mix and net pricing. Lower tariffs and favorable exchange improved contribution margin, and our focus on overhead drove a significant decline in structural costs. We continue to emphasize dealer engagement and profitability along with inventory discipline by keeping production aligned to demand. We've also made progress shifting our portfolio from imports to locally manufactured. In 2019, we launched Lincoln Corsair and expect to localize 4 additional vehicles in the future.

在 2019 年全年，我們能夠將虧損減少 1/2，因為新產品支持改善的市場因素，包括組合和淨定價。較低的關稅和有利的匯率提高了邊際貢獻，而我們對管理費用的關注推動了結構成本的顯著下降。我們通過保持生產與需求保持一致，繼續強調經銷商的參與度和盈利能力以及庫存紀律。我們還在將我們的產品組合從進口轉向本地製造方面取得了進展。 2019 年，我們推出了林肯海盜船，預計未來還會有 4 款車型進行本地化。

In the fourth quarter, we recorded $2.7 billion in special item charges with cash effects of about $200 million. Actions related to our global redesign accounted for $0.4 billion in special item charges and all the negative cash effects. The balance of special item charges included $2.2 billion for a previously announced remeasurement loss related to our global pension and OPEB plans.

在第四季度，我們記錄了 27 億美元的特殊項目費用，現金影響約為 2 億美元。與我們的全球重新設計相關的行動造成了 4 億美元的特殊項目費用和所有負面現金影響。特殊項目費用的餘額包括 22 億美元，用於先前宣布的與我們的全球養老金和 OPEB 計劃相關的重新計量損失。

In July 2018, we announced plans for our global redesign, which included a potential $11 billion of EBIT charges and $7 billion of related cash effects to fund the rationalization of our cost structure, portfolio and footprint. Those changes were to ensure that Ford in each of our regional auto businesses drives sustainable, profitable growth. Since announcing that plan, we've incurred $3.7 billion of EBIT charges and $1.1 billion of related cash effects with the majority of them in 2019.

2018 年 7 月，我們宣布了全球重新設計的計劃，其中包括潛在的 110 億美元息稅前利潤和 70 億美元的相關現金影響，以資助我們的成本結構、投資組合和足蹟的合理化。這些變化是為了確保福特在我們每個地區的汽車業務中都能推動可持續的盈利增長。自宣布該計劃以來，我們已經產生了 37 億美元的息稅前利潤費用和 11 億美元的相關現金影響，其中大部分發生在 2019 年。

Now I'll expand on our perspective on 2020. At a macro level, our guidance reflects our expectation for continued GDP growth globally and across our major markets. We also anticipate healthy industry volumes on an absolute basis but down modestly from 2019, including declines in the U.S., Europe and China. This outlook does not factor in any assumptions for impacts from the coronavirus to our global business as it is still a very fluid situation, and we're still assessing the magnitude and duration of potential impacts.

現在我將擴展我們對 2020 年的看法。在宏觀層面上，我們的指引反映了我們對全球和主要市場的 GDP 持續增長的預期。我們還預計，絕對數量的健康行業數量將比 2019 年小幅下降，包括美國、歐洲和中國的下降。這一前景並未考慮冠狀病毒對我們全球業務的影響的任何假設，因為它仍然是一個非常不穩定的情況，我們仍在評估潛在影響的幅度和持續時間。

For Ford, 2020 will be another heavy product launch year as we continue to shift investments to our franchise strengths. For example, in 2020, 75% of North America's volume will be all new or refreshed versus 2017. This is up from 40% in 2019, an increase of 35 points. Another way to slice this is by looking at the average ages of our vehicles in our portfolio. In the U.S., the average age will drop from 5.3 years in 2017 to 3.3 years in 2020 on our way to 2.9 years by 2023. After that, we plan to keep a stable and competitive product plan with fresh products every year.

對於福特來說，2020 年將是又一個重磅產品發布年，因為我們將繼續將投資轉向我們的特許經營優勢。例如，到 2020 年，與 2017 年相比，北美 75% 的銷量將是全新的或更新的。這比 2019 年的 40% 增加了 35 個百分點。另一種劃分方法是查看我們投資組合中車輛的平均年齡。在美國，平均年齡將從 2017 年的 5.3 歲下降到 2020 年的 3.3 歲，到 2023 年將下降到 2.9 歲。之後，我們計劃保持穩定和有競爭力的產品計劃，每年都有新鮮產品。

So looking at 2020 more closely, our launches include our new F-150, a new-to-the-lineup small off-road utility vehicle and Mustang Mach-E. We'll also launch our strongest lineup yet of electrified vehicles, including HEV and PHEV versions of popular nameplates like Corsair, Kuga and F-150. At the same time, we'll ramp products introduced in 2019 like Explorer, Aviator, Kuga/Escape, Puma, Transit 2-ton and Super Duty.

因此，更仔細地審視 2020 年，我們推出的產品包括我們的新款 F-150、一款全新的小型越野多功能車和 Mustang Mach-E。我們還將推出我們迄今為止最強大的電動汽車陣容，包括 Corsair、Kuga 和 F-150 等流行銘牌的 HEV 和 PHEV 版本。同時，我們將增加 2019 年推出的 Explorer、Aviator、Kuga/Escape、Puma、Transit 2-ton 和 Super Duty 等產品。

In addition, late in the year, we will start production of our highly anticipated all-new Bronco with availability for customers in early 2021. As you consider our guidance, you should be mindful of several tailwinds and headwinds. For tailwinds, we expect full year sales of all-new Explorer and improved product mix and pricing from other new products, additional fitness and benefits from our global redesign and the nonrepeat of the UAW bonuses. For headwinds, we expect the back-end loaded nature of our launch cadence, especially F-150, the cost of CO2 compliance, increased investments in mobility, lower EBT from Ford Credit largely driven by our assumptions for residual values and the nonrepeat of mark-to-market gain on derivatives and a higher effective tax rate. All of these considerations contributed to our 2020 guidance for $2.4 billion to $3.4 billion in adjusted free cash flow.

此外，今年年底，我們將開始生產備受期待的全新 Bronco，並在 2021 年初向客戶供貨。在您考慮我們的指導時，您應該注意一些順風和逆風。對於順風，我們預計全新 Explorer 的全年銷售和其他新產品的改進產品組合和定價，額外的健身和受益於我們的全球重新設計和不重複的 UAW 獎金。對於逆風，我們預計我們的發射節奏的後端負載性質，尤其是 F-150、二氧化碳合規成本、移動性投資增加、福特信貸降低 EBT，這主要是由於我們對殘值的假設和不重複標記衍生品的市場收益和更高的有效稅率。所有這些考慮因素促成了我們 2020 年調整後自由現金流 24 億至 34 億美元的指導。

For adjusted EBIT, we're targeting a range of $5.6 billion to $6.6 billion, which assumes at least nominal growth in auto, offset by lower EBT from Ford Credit and a modest investment increase in mobility. With an effective tax rate in the mid- to high teens, our adjusted EPS range is $0.94 to $1.20 per share. In the first quarter, we expect adjusted EBIT to be down more than $1.1 billion from the first quarter of 2019, driven by the continuation of higher warranty costs we experienced in the second half of 2019, lower volume, lower results from Ford Credit and higher investment for mobility. And we expect our effective tax rate in the quarter to be at the high end of our full year guidance range.

對於調整後的息稅前利潤，我們的目標是在 56 億美元至 66 億美元之間，假設汽車至少名義增長，但被福特信貸較低的 EBT 和移動性投資的適度增長所抵消。由於中高青少年的有效稅率，我們調整後的每股收益範圍為 0.94 美元至 1.20 美元。在第一季度，我們預計調整後的息稅前利潤將比 2019 年第一季度下降超過 11 億美元，原因是我們在 2019 年下半年經歷的保修成本持續上升、銷量下降、福特信貸業績下降以及更高流動性投資。我們預計本季度的有效稅率將處於全年指導範圍的高端。

Relative to calls on capital for the year, we expect CapEx to be $6.8 billion to $7.3 billion, as much as $800 million lower than in 2019, reflecting benefits from our fitness initiatives. Funded pension contributions of $0.6 billion to $0.8 billion and regular quarterly dividends of $0.15 per share, as always, subject to Board approval each quarter.

相對於今年的資本需求，我們預計資本支出將在 68 億美元至 73 億美元之間，比 2019 年減少 8 億美元，這反映了我們的健身計劃帶來的好處。與往常一樣，提供 6 億至 8 億美元的養老金供款和每股 0.15 美元的定期季度股息，但須每季度獲得董事會批准。

For global redesign, we expect to incur $0.9 billion to $1.4 billion of EBIT special item charges with negative cash effects of $0.8 billion to $1.3 billion. Our guidance assumes no material change in the current economic environment, including commodities, foreign exchange and tariffs. As a reminder, our guidance does not factor in assumptions for impacts from the coronavirus as it is still a fluid situation.

對於全球重新設計，我們預計將產生 9 億至 14 億美元的 EBIT 特殊項目費用，負面現金影響為 8 億至 13 億美元。我們的指引假設當前經濟環境（包括商品、外彙和關稅）沒有重大變化。提醒一下，我們的指導沒有考慮冠狀病毒影響的假設，因為它仍然是一個不穩定的情況。

Our actual results could differ materially from our guidance due to risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those detailed in our filings with the SEC. We have a strong bias for action: to improve our operating performance; to protect our investment-grade rating and ensure a strong balance sheet, specifically, our commitment to have, entering recession, a cash balance of $20 billion and liquidity at $30 billion; to preserve our debt capacity; and to sustain the fully funded and derisked status of our funded pension plans. All of our capital allocation decisions are made with these priorities front of mind, including funding our traditional product and nonproduct investment plans, our growth plans for electrification, mobility, connected services and autonomy and our regular dividend.

由於風險、不確定性和其他因素，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的因素，我們的實際結果可能與我們的指導存在重大差異。我們有強烈的行動傾向：改善我們的經營業績；保護我們的投資級評級並確保穩健的資產負債表，特別是我們承諾在進入衰退時擁有 200 億美元的現金餘額和 300 億美元的流動性；保持我們的債務能力；並維持我們的養老金計劃資金充足和風險降低的狀態。我們所有的資本分配決策都是在這些優先事項的基礎上做出的，包括為我們的傳統產品和非產品投資計劃、我們的電氣化、移動性、互聯服務和自主性的增長計劃以及我們的定期股息提供資金。

Before I move to Q&A, there are a few things I encourage you to keep in mind as you think about Ford today and for the long term. First, our customers are informing and driving everything we do. That is why 2019 was and 2020 will be such robust product launch years for us. We are bolstering our winning portfolio of vehicles based on what our customers want and need, reallocating capital to those higher-return growth opportunities and carrying out changeovers of our highest volume and most profitable vehicles.

在我進行問答之前，我鼓勵您在考慮今天和長期的福特時記住一些事情。首先，我們的客戶正在告知和推動我們所做的一切。這就是為什麼 2019 年和 2020 年對我們來說都是如此強勁的產品發布年。我們正在根據客戶的需要和需求來支持我們成功的車輛組合，將資金重新分配給那些回報更高的增長機會，並對我們最高產量和最有利可圖的車輛進行轉換。

Second, we are determined to always get better, to persistently improve our fitness and our operating execution. We have abundant opportunities across our business to drive free cash flow along with long-term growth in revenue and profitability, including adjusted EBIT margins of 8% or better. We remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and holding investment-grade credit ratings.

第二，我們立志永遠做的更好，不斷提升自身素質和經營執行力。我們在整個業務中擁有大量機會來推動自由現金流以及收入和盈利能力的長期增長，包括調整後的息稅前利潤率達到 8% 或更高。我們仍然致力於維持強勁的資產負債表並保持投資級信用評級。

And third, as I look ahead, I'm optimistic. We have many opportunities to improve our operational execution, drive growth, strengthen our financial results, including cash flow, in the process, earn the confidence of our stakeholders.

第三，展望未來，我很樂觀。在此過程中，我們有很多機會來改善我們的運營執行、推動增長、加強我們的財務業績，包括現金流，贏得利益相關者的信任。

Now let's open the call for questions. Operator?

現在讓我們打開問題的電話。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of John Murphy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自美國銀行美林證券的 John Murphy。

A first question, as we look at what you're working on right now, there's kind of 2 layers of rationalization. Sort of there's this near-term operational execution turnaround that needs to occur, and then there's the global redesign. And as we look at this, I mean, you're staring down the barrel of great product launches or great products, and you got to get those launches right, and products that have just launched. So I mean in the near term, it just seems like you got the product. The operational execution is just a real issue. I'm just curious. Yes, I mean we can all see that. You're kind of identifying it. But what really turns that around? And it's not -- the product's there. Just trying to understand what really gets this operational execution turned in the near term hopefully. And then sort of as you look at the inflection point on the global redesign, is that the kind of thing that's going to hit in late 2020 or early 2021 because what you're indicating as far as the charges looks like you'll be halfway through? So it just -- it seems like that inflection point is not going to come until 2021. It might still be a headwind in the near term. So in those 2 layers, if you can kind of talk about actions you're taking near term and the inflection point on the global redesign.

第一個問題，當我們看看你現在正在做什麼時，有兩層合理化。有點像這種近期的運營執行周轉需要發生，然後是全球重新設計。當我們看到這個時，我的意思是，你正盯著偉大的產品發布或偉大的產品的桶，你必須讓那些發布正確，以及剛剛發布的產品。所以我的意思是在短期內，看起來你得到了產品。操作執行只是一個真正的問題。我只是好奇。是的，我的意思是我們都可以看到。你有點識別它。但真正扭轉這種局面的是什麼？它不是——產品就在那裡。只是想了解是什麼真正讓這種運營執行在短期內有所轉變。然後，當您查看全球重新設計的拐點時，這種事情將在 2020 年末或 2021 年初發生，因為您所表明的收費看起來像您將完成一半通過？所以它只是 - 拐點似乎要到 2021 年才會到來。在短期內它可能仍然是一個逆風。因此，在這 2 層中，如果您可以談論一下您近期正在採取的行動以及全球重新設計的拐點。

Jim Hackett here. I think that's well said. I'd characterize it in the company that we're always managing the now and the far in parallel. They're synergistic. They feed each other, but they have totally different kind of requirements, right? And so in the now, the message in the company is we work really hard to get the portfolio rationalized, communicated. We -- just to remind you, we went to work really hard on the platform architectures underneath that whole portfolio. At the same time, we feathered in connectivity. We're working on car architectures that power the vehicles. We're talking about propulsion inside of them with electrification. So there's a lot in that product turnaround.

吉姆哈克特在這裡。我覺得說的很好。我在公司中的特點是，我們總是同時管理現在和遠期。它們是協同的。他們互相餵食，但他們有完全不同的要求，對吧？所以現在，公司的信息是我們非常努力地使投資組合合理化、溝通。我們 - 只是提醒您，我們在整個產品組合下的平台架構上非常努力。與此同時，我們在連接方面取得了飛躍。我們正在研究為車輛提供動力的汽車架構。我們正在談論通過電氣化在它們內部進行推進。因此，該產品周轉率很高。

And the market, it's too early for me to tell you the new portfolio. Share improvement's better than the old one, but the market's giving us really good signs there. It does boil down to we can't miss a beat now in the product launches. Today, for example, I spent a lot of time with Joe and others working through the F-150. So that's the state and spirit in the company as we saw the mistakes. We x-rayed that deeply for you in the last call so that you knew we went to -- kind of went to the desert to get to the bottom of that. I got 0 question that we have identified what's -- what was at risk there, what bad decisions we made, what new things we have to change. That's all kind of in the rearview mirror, and now it's about executing on the things that we've laid out this year.

而市場，我現在告訴你新的投資組合還為時過早。股票的改善比舊的要好，但市場給了我們很好的跡象。歸根結底，我們現在在產品發布中不能錯過任何一個節拍。例如，今天，我花了很多時間與喬和其他人一起研究 F-150。這就是我們看到錯誤時公司的狀態和精神。在最後一次通話中，我們為您進行了深入的 X 光檢查，以便您知道我們去了 - 有點像去了沙漠以查明真相。我得到 0 個問題，我們已經確定了哪些問題——那裡有什麼風險，我們做出了哪些錯誤的決定，我們必須改變哪些新事物。這一切都在後視鏡中，現在是關於執行我們今年制定的事情。

So that's my perspective from the product. Tim, maybe you can address the global redesign. The thing I just want to sneak in on the global redesign. This is -- this has to happen in parallel. I give our people a lot of credit because their day jobs of managing what I just laid out runs in parallel as they redesign the company. And there are some really bright spots in that, for example, the Europe team has a lot of momentum right now. And you might mention that, Tim, in your summary of what's been going on there.

這就是我對產品的看法。蒂姆，也許你可以解決全球重新設計問題。我只想潛入全球重新設計的事情。這是 - 這必須同時發生。我給我們的員工很多讚譽，因為他們在重新設計公司的同時管理我剛剛制定的內容的日常工作。其中有一些真正的亮點，例如，歐洲隊現在有很大的動力。蒂姆，你可能會在你對那裡發生的事情的總結中提到這一點。

Yes. So from a redesign standpoint, we made, as Jim said, strong progress in 2019, and it's a highlight for the year. Europe, for example, is carrying out strong execution of the redesign of its business, announced closure of 6 manufacturing facilities, eliminated a total of 12,000 positions and focused on leadership and doubling down on that leadership in commercial vehicles and imports of iconic nameplates as well as passenger vehicles.

是的。因此，從重新設計的角度來看，正如 Jim 所說，我們在 2019 年取得了長足的進步，這是今年的一大亮點。例如，歐洲正在大力執行其業務的重新設計，宣布關閉 6 家製造工廠，共裁撤 12,000 個職位，並專注於在商用車和標誌性銘牌進口方面的領導地位並加倍努力作為乘用車。

South America, continuing to move to lower-cost, asset-light footprint, including exiting the production of heavy trucks in Sao Bernardo, as you know, and discontinued Fiesta and Focus models. And for the year, we saw charges this year of $3.2 billion and a total thus far of $3.7 billion. If you factor in the guidance we're giving on restructuring charges to be at $4.6 billion to $5.1 billion through the end of '20 and from a cash standpoint through the end of '20, $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion.

如您所知，南美繼續轉向低成本、輕資產，包括退出聖貝爾納多的重型卡車生產，並停產嘉年華和福克斯車型。就這一年而言，我們看到今年的收費為 32 億美元，迄今為止的總額為 37 億美元。如果你考慮到我們給出的重組費用的指導，到 20 年底將在 46 億美元到 51 億美元之間，從現金的角度來看，到 20 年底，19 億美元到 24 億美元。

And I think the benefits of the redesign as well as the fitness are starting to show through. If you look at 2018, for example, structural costs were flat. 2019, structural costs were down year-over-year. So you're starting to see it reflected in the underlying fundamentals of our results, and as you suggested, they continue to build over time as further actions are implemented.

而且我認為重新設計和健身的好處開始顯現出來。例如，如果您查看 2018 年，結構成本持平。 2019年，結構成本同比下降。因此，您開始看到它反映在我們結果的基本面中，並且正如您所建議的，隨著進一步行動的實施，它們會隨著時間的推移而繼續建立。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a second question just quickly on Europe. I mean with the CO2 regs tightening this year, next year and going forward, I'm just curious if you think with your current product portfolio and what you have in the works with the VW alliance that you'll be able to meet the requirements over there or will you have to do some kind of pooling or pay fines over the next 1 to 2 years. And I mean do you think this is a -- something you can solve in-house with product solution? Or are you going to have to go out house and do pooling or pay fines?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是關於歐洲的第二個問題。我的意思是，隨著今年、明年和未來的二氧化碳排放法規收緊，我很好奇您是否認為您當前的產品組合以及您與大眾聯盟的合作中您將能夠滿足要求在那裡，或者您是否必須在未來 1 到 2 年內進行某種集中或支付罰款。我的意思是，您認為這是您可以通過產品解決方案在內部解決的問題嗎？或者您是否必須外出並進行匯集或支付罰款？

Yes, a fair question. This has come up before, John, in previous quarters, but Joe, you might confirm.

是的，一個公平的問題。約翰，這在前幾個季度已經出現過，但喬，你可能會證實。

Yes, John. So we do expect to be able to achieve the new CO2 requirements in Europe without incurring fines or purchasing credits. Just want to make that clear. It's a product-driven plan. We've known about these regulations for several years. They were first public back in 2012, 2013. We've been planning the business accordingly since then. By the end of 2020, we will have 14 new electrified offerings in the market in Europe, and by the end of '24, we expect to have 17 electrified vehicles, including a number of mild hybrids, plug-in hybrids, some full hybrids and then a call -- including all-electric models.

是的，約翰。因此，我們確實希望能夠在不產生罰款或購買信用的情況下達到歐洲新的二氧化碳排放要求。只想說清楚。這是一個產品驅動的計劃。我們已經知道這些規定好幾年了。它們於 2012 年和 2013 年首次公開。從那時起，我們一直在相應地規劃業務。到 2020 年底，我們將在歐洲市場推出 14 款新的電氣化產品，到 24 年底，我們預計將擁有 17 款電動汽車，包括一些輕度混合動力、插電式混合動力、一些全混合動力然後是一個電話——包括全電動車型。

So this also includes improvements in our diesel offerings and other products that are internal combustion engines as well. So we feel really good about the plan. We need to execute the launches on time to make sure that we get the products that we're planning to meet those. But our plan is definitely product-driven, and we do not expect to incur any fines, don't have to pool with anybody else or purchase credits.

因此，這還包括改進我們的柴油產品和其他內燃機產品。所以我們對這個計劃感覺很好。我們需要按時執行發布，以確保我們獲得我們計劃滿足這些要求的產品。但我們的計劃絕對是產品驅動的，我們不希望招致任何罰款，不必與其他任何人合作或購買積分。

Great. And then just one just last quick question on Slide 14, Tim. This $500 million of negative cost, I mean that has the $600 million of the UAW cost in it, so on a like-for-like basis, cost actually improved in the quarter. Would that be a fair way to read that?

偉大的。然後是關於幻燈片 14 的最後一個快速問題，蒂姆。這 5 億美元的負成本，我的意思是其中有 6 億美元的 UAW 成本，因此在同類基礎上，本季度的成本實際上有所改善。這會是一種公平的閱讀方式嗎？

Slide 15, you said? 14?

你說的是第 15 張幻燈片？ 14？

Slide 14, you have cost as a negative $0.5 billion, but I would imagine that's got the UAW contract, $600 million.

幻燈片 14，您的成本為負 5 億美元，但我想這有 UAW 合同，6 億美元。

Sorry. Yes, on Slide 14, North America, UAW's included in other.

對不起。是的，在第 14 張幻燈片上，北美，UAW 包含在其他內容中。

Our next question will come from the line of Rod Lache, Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

I was hoping you might be able to give us a little bit more color on your regional auto EBIT expectations for 2020 because it seems like you would have a few pretty significant tailwinds set up, which don't really appear to be flowing into your 2020 EBIT guidance for auto, which you said was up nominally. I guess, essentially, I'm hoping that you can talk a little bit about the direction that you're expecting for each of the key markets. So like North America, obviously, nonrecur of the Explorer launch issues and UAW bonus, which are collectively pretty big, is that offset by the -- completely offset by the F-Series launch and other items? And in Europe, I think Joe Hinrichs, you said that most of the 12,000 people that you had commented on leaving were still on the payroll through the end of last year and would have a bigger impact this year. Are those just swamped by the CO2 compliance costs?

我希望您能夠為我們提供更多關於您對 2020 年區域汽車 EBIT 預期的信息，因為您似乎會設置一些非常重要的順風，而這些順風似乎並沒有真正流入您的 2020汽車的息稅前利潤指導，你說名義上是上升的。我想，基本上，我希望你能談談你對每個關鍵市場的預期方向。因此，顯然，像北美一樣，Explorer 發布問題和 UAW 獎金的非重複性總體上相當大，這是否被 F 系列發布和其他項目完全抵消了？在歐洲，我認為 Joe Hinrichs，你說你評論過離開的 12,000 人中的大多數人到去年年底仍然在工資單上，今年會產生更大的影響。那些只是被二氧化碳合規成本淹沒了嗎？

So Ron, it's good to hear from you. It's Jim. There's not a point tonight where we're going to go market by market. We just don't do that for obvious competitive reasons. But let's just repeat what is in -- what color is in the guidance we've given.

所以羅恩，很高興收到你的來信。是吉姆。今晚我們沒有必要逐個市場去市場。出於明顯的競爭原因，我們只是不這樣做。但是讓我們重複一下 - 我們給出的指導中的顏色是什麼。

Great. So I'll take that, Jim. Thanks. So as we said, at least nominal growth in auto. As Jim just said, we're not going to spread that around by region. With Ford Credit being lower, you may have heard on the call, we expect the auction values to be down 5% year-over-year -- compared with 2%, sorry, in 2019, big driver there and then increasing investments in mobility, as we saw in 2019, a $0.5 billion increase, for example, in mobility investments. So that's the primary color we're providing on the different segments as opposed to the regions.

偉大的。所以我會接受的，吉姆。謝謝。因此，正如我們所說，至少汽車行業的名義增長。正如吉姆剛才所說，我們不會按地區傳播它。由於福特信貸較低，您可能在電話會議上聽說過，我們預計拍賣價值將同比下降 5% - 相比之下，2019 年下降了 2%，抱歉，2019 年是那裡的主要驅動力，然後增加了對移動性的投資，正如我們在 2019 年看到的那樣，例如移動投資增加了 5 億美元。這就是我們在不同細分領域提供的原色，而不是區域。

We also -- I can go through the headwinds and tailwinds for you, but they're not to be underestimated that headwinds, for example, the 20 launches late in the year, F-150, for example, CO2 costs, mobility as I just mentioned, Ford Credit as I just mentioned and the tax rate up to mid- to high teens compared to 11% in 2019. Those are the primary headwinds. Tailwinds, we certainly have a full year benefit of the sale of Explorer, for example, as well as the mix and price on new products, and then as I mentioned in the earlier question, the benefits of fitness and the global redesign. And of course, the nonrecurrence of UAW is about a $0.6 billion impact.

我們也 - 我可以為你經歷逆風和順風，但不要低估逆風，例如，今年年底的 20 次發射，例如 F-150，二氧化碳成本，我的機動性剛才提到的，正如我剛才提到的福特信貸和高達中高青少年的稅率，而 2019 年的稅率為 11%。這些是主要的不利因素。順風，我們當然會從 Explorer 的銷售中獲得一整年的收益，例如，以及新產品的組合和價格，然後正如我在前面的問題中提到的，健身和全球重新設計的好處。當然，UAW 的不復發影響約為 6 億美元。

Yes. Did you just say that the mobility investments would be up $0.5 billion in 2020?

是的。您剛才是說 2020 年移動投資將增加 5 億美元嗎？

No. I was -- thanks for asking. I was saying they were up in 2019 by $0.5 billion, and in 2020, they'll similar -- they'll be up. Not -- we're not giving you the magnitude.

不，我是——謝謝你的提問。我是說它們在 2019 年增加了 5 億美元，到 2020 年，它們會相似——它們會上升。不——我們沒有給你這個幅度。

Yes. Well, look, I'm sure you -- I mean there are reasons to not provide color on the regional numbers, but from an external standpoint, you start adding up maybe $1 billion tailwind from Explorer and $600 million from UAW and certainly more than $1 billion from this headcount in Europe and big plant closure in South America. It's -- those -- not quantifying that is -- makes it very challenging for us to really assess what you're facing and what's in there. Do you have an assumption in there for a further increase in warranty costs this year?

是的。好吧，看，我確定你——我的意思是有理由不提供地區數字的顏色，但從外部角度來看，你開始從 Explorer 和 UAW 加起來可能有 10 億美元和 6 億美元，而且肯定超過10 億美元來自歐洲的員工人數和南美的大型工廠關閉。這是 - 那些 - 不是量化的 - 讓我們很難真正評估你所面臨的和里面有什麼。您是否認為今年的保修成本會進一步增加？

Yes. It'll potentially only add to your comment you just made, but I think we took a step forward this quarter in providing the segment level commentary connected with the cash flow and EBIT guidance that we gave. In addition to not providing regional commentary, we're not speaking to the specific attributes from a cost standpoint such as warranty and so forth.

是的。它可能只會增加您剛剛發表的評論，但我認為本季度我們在提供與我們提供的現金流和息稅前利潤指導相關的細分市場級別評論方面向前邁進了一步。除了不提供區域評論外，我們也沒有從成本的角度談論特定屬性，例如保修等。

Okay. And maybe just lastly, you talked about that $7 billion of cash spending on restructuring. The number's been quite low, I think lower than you had originally anticipated in 2019, and it's only up a bit in 2020. Presumably, some of the cost savings are kind of tied to the cash restructuring rather than the headline GAAP charges. Could you just give us some color on what's going on there and changing the timing and whether we should be reading into the trajectory of the turnaround plan based on that?

好的。也許就在最後，您談到了用於重組的 70 億美元現金支出。這個數字非常低，我認為低於您在 2019 年最初的預期，並且在 2020 年僅略有上升。據推測，一些成本節約與現金重組有關，而不是與總體公認會計原則收費有關。您能否就那裡發生的事情和改變時機以及我們是否應該基於此閱讀周轉計劃的軌跡給我們一些顏色？

Yes. I think Slide 20 illustrates the $11 billion in charges and $7 billion and how we're progressing against that. $3.7 billion thus far, as I mentioned, when we factor in the guidance for 2020, would be at $4.6 billion to $5.1 billion. Potential actions we're still considering there. From a cash standpoint, we're at $1.1 billion thus far, and with the guidance we gave, we'll be at $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion. As far as the calendarization of that, we still have several years to continue to execute, I mean, global redesign. We don't have any new announcements to make today, but I think one of the things you're seeing in the cash saving -- cash side, sorry, the savings the team has. They're being especially thoughtful about how we execute on the restructuring actions in Europe and South America, for example, and taking every opportunity to save cash in the process.

是的。我認為幻燈片 20 說明了 110 億美元的費用和 70 億美元的費用，以及我們如何在這方面取得進展。正如我所提到的，到目前為止，當我們考慮到 2020 年的指導時，37 億美元將在 46 億美元至 51 億美元之間。我們仍在考慮的潛在行動。從現金的角度來看，到目前為止，我們的資產為 11 億美元，根據我們給出的指導，我們將達到 19 億至 24 億美元。至於日曆化，我們還有幾年時間繼續執行，我的意思是，全球重新設計。我們今天沒有任何新的公告要發布，但我認為你在現金儲蓄中看到的一件事——現金方面，對不起，團隊的儲蓄。例如，他們對我們如何執行歐洲和南美的重組行動特別深思熟慮，並在此過程中抓住一切機會節省現金。

Just to clarify, Tim, are you suggesting that the number -- the cash number may be lower than the $7 billion or that it would just be more spread out over the next couple years?

澄清一下，蒂姆，你是在暗示這個數字——現金數字可能低於 70 億美元，還是在未來幾年內會更加分散？

I was addressing the question about -- apologies. I was addressing the question as to why maybe the lower you might have been expecting through 2020. The number is still $11 billion and $7 billion over the...

我正在解決關於 - 道歉的問題。我正在解決這個問題，為什麼你可能一直期望到 2020 年會更低。這個數字仍然是 110 億美元，超過 70 億美元……

Thank you, Rod. They're overperforming, which is a good thing. That's kind of in the reviews. I've been really impressed at particularly in Europe as we said.

謝謝你，羅德。他們表現出色，這是一件好事。評論裡是這樣的。正如我們所說，特別是在歐洲，我印象深刻。

All right. Our next question will come from the line of Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

好的。我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

I'll first echo Rod's comments and -- about transparency because it really would be helpful. And we understand that you won't be -- you can't know with 100% certainty these items, but we're certainly used to management teams giving their best guess, particularly at a time when there's so much pressure and when the stakes are so high. So I'll just say good on Rod for zoning in on that.

我將首先回應Rod 的評論和-- 關於透明度，因為它真的很有幫助。而且我們知道你不會——你不能 100% 確定地知道這些項目，但我們當然習慣於管理團隊給出他們最好的猜測，特別是在壓力如此之大和賭注如此之大的時候這麼高。所以我只想說羅德在這方面的分區很好。

First question for me is Tesla. Stock's worth -- it's kind of a historic day because Tesla's now worth over 5x the market cap of Ford. Jim or Tim or Joe, can you guys understand -- can you -- are you sympathetic to why that is that state of the world? Does it make sense to you? What's the message the market's sending Ford Motor Company?

我的第一個問題是特斯拉。股票的價值——這是具有歷史意義的一天，因為特斯拉現在的市值是福特市值的 5 倍以上。吉姆、蒂姆或喬，你們能理解——你們能——你對為什麼會出現這種情況表示同情嗎？這對你有意義嗎？市場向福特汽車公司傳遞了什麼信息？

Adam, it's good to hear from you and the first comment on transparency did not bounce off the atmosphere. I do understand that in this transformation of Ford, the from-to kind of calculus isn't always apparent. For example, consider we've got a portfolio that's in the midst of some things are sunsetting and all these new things are coming out, and you want to know what can we project in terms of your earnings performance. And it's my instincts that back when we first started talking together that this is going to make a much better Ford, and in fact, I'm now more certain of that.

亞當，很高興收到你的來信，關於透明度的第一條評論並沒有在氣氛中反彈。我確實明白，在福特的這種轉變中，從演算到演算並不總是顯而易見的。例如，假設我們有一個投資組合，其中一些事情正在落伍，所有這些新事物都在問世，您想知道我們可以根據您的收益表現預測什麼。當我們第一次開始交談時，我的直覺是這將使福特變得更好，事實上，我現在更加確定這一點。

What I didn't count on and we're going to address, of course, is that we can't fumble execution because we -- the value of Explorer launch back in our year is a different kind of story about Ford. So that's just to confirm that we're doing our best to try and teach you about where we are in the transformation. But I -- it's my confidence that you're going to be happy with that.

當然，我沒有指望並且我們要解決的是我們不能摸索執行，因為我們 - 在我們這一年推出的 Explorer 的價值是關於福特的不同類型的故事。因此，這只是為了確認我們正在盡最大努力嘗試並告訴您我們在轉型中的位置。但我——我相信你會對此感到滿意。

Now the thing about Tesla is CEOs don't ever talk from this table about competitors, but I have been really candid in the company since I came about the -- what is the business model that's there and what, frankly, about it is attractive. And what you can see in Ford's commitment, I'm really proud of the team here as we arrived in June '17. The propulsion strategy was kind of 0, and we've got that squared away. We have 17 new hybrid and all-electric models across the entire lineup.

現在關於特斯拉的問題是，CEO 們從不在這張桌子上談論競爭對手，但自從我來到這家公司以來，我一直非常坦誠——那裡的商業模式是什麼，坦率地說，它有什麼吸引力.你可以從福特的承諾中看到，當我們於 17 年 6 月抵達時，我為這裡的團隊感到非常自豪。推進策略是0，我們已經解決了這個問題。我們在整個陣容中擁有 17 款新的混合動力和全電動車型。

So picture that Ford's in a position where it's got a portfolio of products for its customers, including a bigger extensive offering than the other guy. But the key component of this is the need to have these vehicles connected and over-the-air communications and the kind of configuration that one can bring to the customers. We already know that the kind of volume we're going to have in car years' usage by 2025 will be over 100 million car years of usage of data, so just let that sink in. And that's what the market sees, right, in the future of the car industry, that there's this kind of opportunity for expansion and growth. But I haven't forecasted that in tonight's discussion. It's not -- it's because we got to prove that we can get this done and get it to produce the kind of results that you're seeing there.

所以想像一下，福特處於一個為其客戶提供產品組合的位置，其中包括比其他人更廣泛的產品。但其中的關鍵部分是需要將這些車輛連接起來並進行空中通信，以及可以為客戶帶來的配置。我們已經知道，到 2025 年，我們的汽車年使用量將超過 1 億輛汽車年的數據使用量，所以就讓它沉入其中。這就是市場所看到的，對，在汽車行業的未來，有這種擴張和增長的機會。但我沒有在今晚的討論中預測到這一點。這不是 - 這是因為我們必須證明我們可以完成這項工作並讓它產生你在那裡看到的那種結果。

But I think we're much further along in that journey than we were just 2 years ago when you and I first started talking about it. How do I know that? This Mach-E has generated more attention and kind of interest than in recent memory of any kind of product. The kind of searching that's going on about Bronco would amaze you. And so I know that it is really high given the execution and the kind of improvements that I just mentioned. So let me let you react to that.

但我認為我們在這段旅程中比兩年前你和我第一次開始談論它時走得更遠。我怎麼知道？這款 Mach-E 比近期任何一種產品都引起了更多的關注和興趣。關於 Bronco 的那種搜索會讓你大吃一驚。所以我知道考慮到我剛才提到的執行和改進，它真的很高。所以讓我讓你對此做出反應。

No. It's fine, Jim. And I think -- I appreciate the thoughts. And I can't wait to get my Mach-E. I -- and my kids really can't wait to see the Mach-E in the garage. One follow-up for me, Jim, regarding Volkswagen. Is there any limit to the level of collaboration that you can conceive between you and VW? I'm just wondering if there's anything that's theoretically off limits between the 2 houses during a really historic kind of tectonic time for the industry where it seems like global major OEMs are forming super groups. I'm just wondering if there's anything off limits here.

不，很好，吉姆。我認為 - 我很欣賞這些想法。我迫不及待地想要得到我的 Mach-E。我——和我的孩子們真的迫不及待地想在車庫裡看到 Mach-E。我的一個後續行動，吉姆，關於大眾汽車。您和大眾之間可以設想的合作水平是否有任何限制？我只是想知道在一個真正具有歷史意義的行業構造時期，兩家公司之間是否有任何理論上的禁區，似乎全球主要原始設備製造商正在形成超級集團。我只是想知道這裡是否有任何限制。

Yes. Well, thank you for ordering the Mach-E. I got to tease you. I just ordered mine last week. I want the world to know I waited. I want to get in the middle of it. I didn't want to be first in line and went really well. And they said that I'm right behind Adam Jonas. I just want to...

是的。好吧，感謝您訂購 Mach-E。我得逗你。我上周剛訂購了我的。我想讓世界知道我在等待。我想介入其中。我不想排在第一位，而且進展非常順利。他們說我就在亞當喬納斯的後面。我只想...

Well, I'm probably higher on the list than you, but I reckon you'll still get it before me. But that's...

好吧，我可能在名單上比你高，但我認為你仍然會在我之前得到它。但那是...

No, no, no. That's not the deal. I want to live it. So thank you. VW, so yes, I'm proud of in the repetition of the good things that happened last year, how well that came together in kind of an early phasing of what you're now witnessing. And the commentary that we made in the opening was that you don't have to combine human resource departments to get the kind of value in the automotive industry that we think we can get in arrangements like that.

不不不。那不是交易。我想活下去。所以謝謝。大眾，所以是的，我為去年發生的好事的重複感到自豪，在你現在所見證的早期階段中，這些好事結合在一起的效果如何。我們在開幕式上發表的評論是，您不必合併人力資源部門即可在汽車行業獲得我們認為可以通過這樣的安排獲得的那種價值。

So I want you to see the optimism that -- and hear the optimism in my voice that we're open to lots of ideas there. And I want to also stress that Mahindra similarly is proving to us that, in emerging and emerged markets, it really is expanding the power of Ford. So right now, the plate is full though with the things that we've committed to each other, those 2 companies and Ford. We've really got a lot going on, and I want to see the conclusion of that before I start adding a lot more to the plate.

所以我希望你看到那種樂觀情緒——並聽到我聲音中的樂觀情緒，即我們對那裡的許多想法持開放態度。我還想強調，馬恆達同樣向我們證明，在新興市場，它確實在擴大福特的實力。所以現在，儘管我們對彼此承諾的事情，這兩家公司和福特都已經裝滿了盤子。我們真的有很多事情要做，在我開始添加更多內容之前，我想看看這個結論。

Our next question will come from the line of Dan Levy with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

First question. Your dividend is a $2.4 billion commitment annually. Obviously, we've seen some profit compression and you do still have to fund your restructuring. So it just means that the dividend right now is being funded by the balance sheet. Can you just talk to the rationale of maintaining the dividend at this level? And what are the threshold of business conditions for you to maintain it?

第一個問題。您的股息是每年 24 億美元的承諾。顯然，我們已經看到一些利潤壓縮，您仍然需要為重組提供資金。所以這只是意味著現在的股息是由資產負債表提供的。你能談談將股息維持在這個水平的理由嗎？你維持它的商業條件的門檻是多少？

Well, we like to return value to shareholders. I know that's a really bad answer, but it is true. And the dividend's been a legendary value creator at Ford. We're really responsible about the way, like you say, that you think about the use of the balance sheet to fund that. A year ago on this call, I made it clear that my objective in the way I was thinking about all the things coming in front of us is I want to continue to pay the dividend, I wanted to be able to fund the restructuring and make all the investments in the future that those -- the balance, all those interest was behind the business plan that has rolled out. And so I want to continue that because we said we could do it and right now we can. And Tim, I don't know if you want to add anything.

好吧，我們喜歡向股東回報價值。我知道這是一個非常糟糕的答案，但這是真的。股息一直是福特傳奇的價值創造者。正如您所說，我們對您考慮使用資產負債表為其提供資金的方式真正負責。一年前，在電話會議上，我明確表示，我思考擺在我們面前的所有事情的方式的目標是，我想繼續支付股息，我希望能夠為重組提供資金，並使那些對未來的所有投資——平衡，所有這些利益都在已經推出的商業計劃背後。所以我想繼續這樣做，因為我們說我們可以做到，現在我們可以做到。還有蒂姆，我不知道你是否想補充什麼。

No, that's well said. And that's one of the reasons why we look at our targeted cash and liquidity positions. We established those targets of $20 billion and $30 billion, which are $22 billion and $35 billion now, heading into a downturn so we could be in a position to invest in our long term, invest in the customer experience and fund the dividend for shareholders.

不，說得好。這就是我們關注目標現金和流動性頭寸的原因之一。我們設定了 200 億美元和 300 億美元的目標，現在分別是 220 億美元和 350 億美元，進入低迷期，因此我們可以長期投資，投資於客戶體驗並為股東提供股息。

So I guess the view is that the liquidity you have plus the stream of cash flow that you do have, you still feel comfortable enough with this level to maintain the dividend, that's a fair assessment.

所以我猜的觀點是，你擁有的流動性加上你確實擁有的現金流，你仍然對這個水平感到足夠舒服，可以維持股息，這是一個公平的評估。

It's right. That's why we gave the guidance for the $0.15 per share dividend throughout this year per quarter.

這是正確的。這就是為什麼我們給出了全年每季度每股 0.15 美元股息的指導。

Got it. Great. And then just as a follow-up, I think a year ago, you disclosed that your global truck, van EBIT margin was 14% in 2018. I think, actually, it's maybe a little higher when you strip out the corporate costs. So as we think about the deterioration in 2019 and what was the likely deterioration in '20, help us maybe understand. If we look back at the profit pools, would you say that the truck margin has remained intact and that it's really deterioration in other parts of the business? Or has that truck margin deteriorated as well?

知道了。偉大的。然後作為後續行動，我認為一年前，您披露您的全球卡車、貨車 EBIT 利潤率在 2018 年為 14%。我認為，實際上，如果您剔除企業成本，它可能會更高一些。因此，當我們考慮 2019 年的惡化以及 20 年可能的惡化時，請幫助我們理解。如果我們回顧利潤池，您是否會說卡車利潤率保持不變，而其他業務領域真的惡化了？還是卡車利潤率也惡化了？

I'm going to ask Joe to answer that because this is a primarily North American kind of question as well. So Joe?

我將請喬回答這個問題，因為這也是一個主要的北美問題。那麼喬?

Thanks, Jim. Thanks, Dan. I mean, first off, we're very pleased with where we are with our F-Series and Ranger here in North America and the Ranger performance in places like Europe and other places around the world. Without getting into specifics of the margins in 2019, I also will say that our pricing, transaction prices, incentive levels relative to competition and our overall sales volume were all very good in 2019 here in the U.S. And so we feel very pleased with our progress going into a year when we have a new F-150. We had a new Super Duty at the end of last year. So we're not worried at all about where our competitive position is on our F-Series trucks. In fact, we're really excited about the new trucks that we have coming this year. And if you know the cycle times of where things are, we get the benefit of a new truck after seeing what GM and Ram have done and actually held on very strongly to our volume and our pricing.

謝謝，吉姆。謝謝，丹。我的意思是，首先，我們對我們在北美的 F 系列和 Ranger 以及在歐洲和世界其他地方的 Ranger 表現感到非常滿意。在不詳細說明 2019 年利潤率的情況下，我還要說，我們的定價、交易價格、與競爭相關的激勵水平以及我們的整體銷量在 2019 年在美國都非常好。所以我們對我們的進展感到非常滿意進入我們擁有新 F-150 的一年。去年年底，我們有了新的 Super Duty。因此，我們完全不擔心我們在 F 系列卡車上的競爭地位。事實上，我們對今年推出的新卡車感到非常興奮。而且，如果您知道事物所在的周期時間，那麼在看到通用汽車和 Ram 所做的並且實際上非常強烈地堅持我們的銷量和定價之後，我們就會從一輛新卡車中受益。

If you look at the pricing specifically, we continue to have the highest transaction prices in the segment with the oldest truck on F-Series, F-150 specifically, and adding Ranger to the portfolio just added to the business and in fact, gave us the largest pickup volume in the U.S. last year of all manufacturers combined so -- or all manufacturers that we compete with.

如果您具體查看定價，我們繼續擁有該細分市場中最高的交易價格，特別是 F 系列上最古老的卡車，特別是 F-150，並且將 Ranger 添加到剛剛添加到業務中的產品組合中，事實上，給了我們去年美國所有製造商或與我們競爭的所有製造商中最大的皮卡量。

So we feel really good about where we are on F-Series. And as Jim mentioned, we feel really good about where we are right at this point in time on the launch that's coming up in the second half of the year on F-150. So we're not -- F-150 and F-Series is, of course, the crown jewels of our company, and we feel really good about where they are competitively and where they are from a profit standpoint.

所以我們對我們在 F 系列上的位置感覺非常好。正如吉姆所提到的，我們對即將在今年下半年推出的 F-150 的這個時間點感到非常滿意。所以我們不是——當然，F-150 和 F 系列是我們公司的皇冠上的明珠，我們對它們的競爭力以及從利潤的角度來看它們的位置感到非常滿意。

And our final or last question will come from the line of Joseph Spak, RBC Capital Markets.

我們的最後一個或最後一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

The first question is maybe just a clarification. Tim, you mentioned mobility investment up modestly. Is that apples to apples because aren't you deconsolidating Argo in 2020? So shouldn't that help with your share the loss being lower?

第一個問題可能只是一個澄清。蒂姆，你提到移動投資適度增長。是因為你不是在 2020 年拆分 Argo 嗎？那麼，這難道不應該幫助您減少損失嗎？

Yes. So again, in 2019, mobility investment was up $0.5 billion and in explaining our range of EBIT guidance for 2020, along with at least nominal growth in auto and Ford Credit being lower, now we're saying mobility investments to be up again year-over-year. We're not quantifying the amount. We will be deconsolidating Argo when that transaction closes. As a reminder, that's the self-driving system only, the SDS. The go to market and other aspects of that autonomous vehicle customer value proposition is a separate level of investment, which we're taking a very prudent approach to.

是的。因此，在 2019 年，移動投資增加了 5 億美元，在解釋我們對 2020 年息稅前利潤的指導範圍時，至少汽車和福特信貸的名義增長較低，現在我們說移動投資將再次增長 -超過一年。我們沒有量化數量。該交易完成後，我們將拆分 Argo。提醒一下，這只是自動駕駛系統，SDS。自動駕駛汽車客戶價值主張的上市和其他方面是一個單獨的投資水平，我們正在採取非常謹慎的方法。

Okay. But just to clarify then, the -- we should expect to see the mobility loss higher in '20 even with the deconsolidation?

好的。但為了澄清一下，我們應該期望看到 20 年的流動性損失會更高，即使是在拆散的情況下？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. And then just maybe to follow on to Adam's question earlier and I guess in the spirit of disrupting yourself from within, which, Jim, I think is something you mentioned to me once, now that you have some units coming through in '20 and '21, is there any thought to actually just taking and separating out all the electric assets, the Mach-E, the MEB and Rivian derivatives and break that out as like a Ford E similar to what you've done in mobility to sort of help show us that transition?

好的。然後可能只是更早地跟進亞當的問題，我想本著從內部擾亂自己的精神，吉姆，我認為這是你曾經向我提到的事情，現在你有一些單位在 20 年和 ' 21，有沒有想過實際上只是把所有的電動資產、Mach-E、MEB 和 Rivian 衍生產品分離出來，就像福特 E 一樣，就像你在移動領域所做的那樣，以提供幫助向我們展示這種轉變？

Joe, it's an interesting thought. I'm actually going the other way emotionally, which is I don't think the company can keep itself like it's straddling in an old world and a new world forever. It kind of confuses the organization. And so in some of the challenges that I have on my to-do list, I have a friend in the business who said he carries around a card with what are the toughest conversations and issues that he's got to address that no one really wants to deal with. From my perspective, the transformation has to accelerate. And so I don't want to do anything that makes the organization feel like we can park it on the side, and if it does well and it grows up, it gets attention. But if it doesn't, we didn't really integrate it. And so I have stronger instincts the other way.

喬，這是一個有趣的想法。實際上，我在情感上走的是另一條路，我認為這家公司不能讓自己像永遠跨越舊世界和新世界一樣。這有點讓組織感到困惑。因此，在我的待辦事項清單上遇到的一些挑戰中，我有一位業內朋友說，他隨身攜帶一張卡片，上面寫著他必須解決的最艱難的對話和問題，而沒有人真正想要處理。在我看來，轉型必須加速。所以我不想做任何讓組織覺得我們可以把它放在一邊的事情，如果它做得好並且成長起來，它就會引起關注。但如果沒有，我們並沒有真正整合它。所以我有更強烈的直覺。

But I understand your question also in terms of can we do something to prove that our transformation and our strategy is actually accelerating. And I get that, and I'd like to take that away as something that we ought to do, is try and show you how the compounding of our new ideas are actually taking off because that's the confidence I want you to have tonight, is that I am seeing that. It's just not material enough to move the needle. And that's what I want you to get confidence in, is that it is -- it will move the needle and it will have impact.

但我也理解你的問題，即我們能否做一些事情來證明我們的轉型和戰略實際上正在加速。我明白了，我想把它當作我們應該做的事情，試著向你展示我們的新想法的複合實際上是如何起飛的，因為這是我今晚希望你擁有的信心，是我看到了。只是材料不足以移動針。這就是我希望你獲得信心的地方，它確實是——它會推動針頭並產生影響。

Okay. And maybe if I could just squeeze one more. The $7 billion cash restructuring, you've only spent a little bit, but it looks like you almost spent a little bit over $2 billion through 2020. I understand that sort of comes when you could sort of make announcements. But should we think that, that remaining just under $5 billion will be done by '21? Or is that also pushed out versus prior thinking?

好的。也許如果我能再擠一個。 70 億美元的現金重組，你只花了一點點，但看起來到 2020 年你幾乎花了超過 20 億美元。我知道，當你可以發佈公告時，就會出現這種情況。但我們是否應該認為，剩下的不到 50 億美元將在 21 年完成？還是與先前的想法相比，這也被推出了？

Yes. We're not -- as far as the time frame of that, as you said, it's $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion through the end of '20 of the $7 billion. And beyond that, we haven't given specific time lines or calendarization over the next several years. We'll update everyone as we have more information.

是的。我們不是——就時間框架而言，正如你所說，到 20 年底 70 億美元中的 19 億美元到 24 億美元。除此之外，我們還沒有給出未來幾年的具體時間表或日曆。當我們有更多信息時，我們會更新每個人。

And that's all the time we have for questions. I'd now like to turn the call over to Jim Hackett.

這就是我們提出問題的所有時間。我現在想把電話轉給吉姆哈克特。

Thank you. And tonight, our slide started with a picture of the Mach-E, and I was inspired by the picture as I waited for you to ask questions. This product that's on that slide lives in great respect for the Ford legacy. But as it respects it, it's not in reverence. It's not in such reverence that it can't change. So this vehicle is an iconic example of what we've been working on. The company has to change.

謝謝你。今晚，我們的幻燈片以 Mach-E 的圖片開始，我在等待您提問時受到圖片的啟發。這張幻燈片上的這款產品非常尊重福特的傳統。但既然它尊重它，它就不是崇敬。它不是那麼崇敬，以至於無法改變。所以這輛車是我們一直在努力的標誌性例子。公司必須改變。

It's changing its portfolio. It's restructuring markets like Europe and South America. Europe hadn't been touched for years. It's taking on the bureaucracy. We cut it by 1/3, $700 million likely in run rate savings. We mandated connectivity, which was a multi-billion-dollar commitment before we had the kind of software to run on this. We build agile teams. That's how this vehicle was created.

它正在改變其投資組合。它正在重組歐洲和南美等市場。多年來，歐洲一直沒有受到影響。它正在接受官僚主義。我們將其削減了 1/3，可能節省了 7 億美元的運行費用。我們強制要求連接，這是一個數十億美元的承諾，在我們擁有可以在其上運行的軟件之前。我們建立敏捷團隊。這就是這輛車的創建方式。

And then there's an obvious question, as you look at that and I look at that, is can we execute, and of course, we can. We will promise that we will earn your trust in that area. And I don't want you to think that we have to struggle on the way to the future. We're not going to cancel the future because of the focus on earnings. We think these -- the improvement in earnings that we all want and the requirement that we have to get to our future can live in a synergistic way and build the kind of excitement in Ford Motor Company that you heard Adam and I talking about tonight. So thank you for your time on the call.

然後有一個明顯的問題，當你看到那個，我看到那個時，我們可以執行，當然，我們可以。我們將承諾，我們將在該領域贏得您的信任。我不希望你認為我們必須在通往未來的道路上奮鬥。我們不會因為關注收益而取消未來。我們認為這些——我們都想要的收益提高和我們必須實現未來的要求可以以協同的方式生活，並在福特汽車公司建立起你聽到亞當和我今晚談論的那種興奮。因此，感謝您撥冗接聽電話。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

福特汽車公司第四季度收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。